climate feedback processes: Topics by Science.gov

Analytically tractable climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under 21st century anthropogenic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven J.; Donges, Jonathan F.; Fetzer, Ingo; Anderies, John M.; Beer, Christian; Cornell, Sarah E.; Gasser, Thomas; Norberg, Jon; Richardson, Katherine; Rockström, Johan; Steffen, Will

2018-05-01

Changes to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks may significantly affect the Earth system's response to greenhouse gas emissions. These feedbacks are usually analysed from numerical output of complex and arguably opaque Earth system models. Here, we construct a stylised global climate-carbon cycle model, test its output against comprehensive Earth system models, and investigate the strengths of its climate-carbon cycle feedbacks analytically. The analytical expressions we obtain aid understanding of carbon cycle feedbacks and the operation of the carbon cycle. Specific results include that different feedback formalisms measure fundamentally the same climate-carbon cycle processes; temperature dependence of the solubility pump, biological pump, and CO2 solubility all contribute approximately equally to the ocean climate-carbon feedback; and concentration-carbon feedbacks may be more sensitive to future climate change than climate-carbon feedbacks. Simple models such as that developed here also provide workbenches for simple but mechanistically based explorations of Earth system processes, such as interactions and feedbacks between the planetary boundaries, that are currently too uncertain to be included in comprehensive Earth system models.
Intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cess, R. D.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J. P.; Boer, G. J.; Del Genio, A. D.

1990-01-01

The present study provides an intercomparison and interpretation of climate feedback processes in 19 atmospheric general circulation models. This intercomparison uses sea surface temperature change as a surrogate for climate change. The interpretation of cloud-climate interactions is given special attention. A roughly threefold variation in one measure of global climate sensitivity is found among the 19 models. The important conclusion is that most of this variation is attributable to differences in the models' depiction of cloud feedback, a result that emphasizes the need for improvements in the treatment of clouds in these models if they are ultimately to be used as reliable climate predictors. It is further emphazied that cloud feedback is the consequence of all interacting physical and dynamical processes in a general circulation model. The result of these processes is to produce changes in temperature, moisture distribution, and clouds which are integrated into the radiative response termed cloud feedback.
Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions.

PubMed

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E; Armour, Kyle C; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Chepfer, Helene; Docquier, David; Jonko, Alexandra; Kushner, Paul J; Lecomte, Olivier; Massonnet, François; Park, Hyo-Seok; Pithan, Felix; Svensson, Gunilla; Vancoppenolle, Martin

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range of feedbacks, offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.
Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less
Quantifying climate feedbacks in polar regions

DOE PAGES

Goosse, Hugues; Kay, Jennifer E.; Armour, Kyle C.; ...

2018-05-15

The concept of feedback is key in assessing whether a perturbation to a system is amplified or damped by mechanisms internal to the system. In polar regions, climate dynamics are controlled by both radiative and non-radiative interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, ice sheets and land surfaces. Precisely quantifying polar feedbacks is required for a process-oriented evaluation of climate models, a clear understanding of the processes responsible for polar climate changes, and a reduction in uncertainty associated with model projections. This quantification can be performed using a simple and consistent approach that is valid for a wide range ofmore » feedbacks, thus offering the opportunity for more systematic feedback analyses and a better understanding of polar climate changes.« less
The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.
A conceptual framework for regional feedbacks in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batlle Bayer, L.; van den Hurk, B. J. J. M.; Strengers, B.

2012-04-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and climate influence each other through biogeochemical (e.g. carbon cycle) and biogeophysical (e.g. albedo, water fluxes) processes. These interactions might be disturbed when a climate human-induced forcing takes place (e.g. deforestation); and the ecosystem responses to the climate system might amplify (positive feedback) or dampen (negative feedback) the initial forcing. Research on feedbacks has been mainly based on the carbon cycle at the global scale. However, biogeophysical feedbacks might have a great impact at the local or regional scale, which is the main focus of this article. A conceptual framework, with the major interactions and processes between terrestrial ecosystems and climate, is presented to further explore feedbacks at the regional level. Four hot spots with potential changes in land use/management and climate are selected: sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Europe, the Amazon Basin and South and Southeast Asia. For each region, diverse climate human-induced forcings and feedbacks were identified based on relevant published literature. For Europe, the positive soil moisture-evapotranspiration (ET) is important for natural vegetation during a heat wave event, while the positive soil moisture-precipitation feedback plays a more important role for droughts in the Amazon region. Agricultural expansion in SSA will depend on the impacts of the changing climate on crop yields and the adopted agro-technologies. The adoption of irrigation in the commonly rainfed systems might turn the positive soil moisture- ET feedback into a negative one. In contrast, South and Southeast Asia might face water shortage in the future, and thus turning the soil moisture-ET feedback into a positive one. Further research is needed for the major processes that affect the ultimate sign of the feedbacks, as well as for the interactions, which effect remains uncertain, such as ET-precipitation interaction. In addition, socio-economic feedbacks need to be added in the ecosystems-climate system since they play an essential role in human decisions on land use and land cover change (LULCC).
Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

2005-01-01

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud-climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet's hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings.The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global-time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis.It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model's credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress.Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future.
The cloud-phase feedback in the Super-parameterized Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burt, M. A.; Randall, D. A.

2016-12-01

Recent comparisons of observations and climate model simulations by I. Tan and colleagues have suggested that the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process tends to be too active in climate models, making too much cloud ice, and resulting in an exaggerated negative cloud-phase feedback on climate change. We explore the WBF process and its effect on shortwave cloud forcing in present-day and future climate simulations with the Community Earth System Model, and its super-parameterized counterpart. Results show that SP-CESM has much less cloud ice and a weaker cloud-phase feedback than CESM.
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; ...

2017-01-01

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.;

2017-01-01

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions 'How does the Earth system respond to forcing?' and 'What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?' and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity. A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming? CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. 1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations? 2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models? 3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds? 4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less
Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.
A Unified Approach to Quantifying Feedbacks in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. E.

2008-12-01

In order to speed progress in reducing uncertainty in climate projections, the processes that most strongly influence those projections must be identified. It is of some importance, therefore, to assess the relative strengths of various climate feedbacks and to determine the degree to which various earth system models (ESMs) agree in their simulations of these processes. Climate feedbacks have been traditionally quantified in terms of their impact on the radiative balance of the planet, whereas carbon cycle responses have been assessed in terms of the size of the perturbations to the surface fluxes of carbon dioxide. In this study we introduce a diagnostic strategy for unifying the two approaches, which allows us to directly compare the strength of carbon-climate feedbacks with other conventional climate feedbacks associated with atmospheric and surface changes. Applying this strategy to a highly simplified model of the carbon-climate system demonstrates the viability of the approach. In the simple model we find that even if the strength of the carbon-climate feedbacks is very large, the uncertainty associated with the overall response of the climate system is likely to be dominated by uncertainties in the much larger feedbacks associated with clouds. This does not imply that the carbon cycle itself is unimportant, only that changes in the carbon cycle that are associated with climate change have a relatively small impact on global temperatures. This new, unified diagnostic approach is suitable for assessing feedbacks in even the most sophisticated earth system models. It will be interesting to see whether our preliminary conclusions are confirmed when output from the more realistic models is analyzed. This work was carried out at the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.
Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

2013-07-01

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.
Detecting climate forcing and feedback signals in surface climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2015-04-01

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous feedback processes which can introduce strong, regionalized asymmetries to the overall warming trend. These processes alter the surface energy budget, and thus affect the surface air temperature, which is one of the primary measures of how the climate is changing. However, the degree to which a given forcing or feedback process alters surface temperatures is contingent on the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere which is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, which can lead to a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. Therefore, if a climate forcing or feedback is acting across a wide range of conditions of the boundary layer, then this non-linear response of the surface climate to perturbations in the forcing must be accounted for in order to correctly assess the effect of the forcing on the surface climatology.
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Hélène; Douville, Hervé; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Klein, Stephen A.; Marchand, Roger; Medeiros, Brian; Pier Siebesma, A.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Stevens, Bjorn; Tselioudis, George; Tsushima, Yoko; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-01-01

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions.
1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?
2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?
3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?
4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?
The local, remote, and global consequences of climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldl, Nicole

Climate feedbacks offer a powerful framework for revealing the energetic pathways by which the system adjusts to an imposed forcing, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2. We investigate how local atmospheric feedbacks, such as those associated with Arctic sea ice and the Walker circulation, affect both global climate sensitivity and spatial patterns of warming. Emphasis is placed on a general circulation model with idealized boundary conditions, for the clarity it provides. For this aquaplanet simulation, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and explicitly diagnose feedbacks (using radiative kernels) and forcing for this precise model set-up. In particular, a detailed closure of the energy budget within a clean experimental set-up allows us to consider nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. The inclusion of a tropical Walker circulation is found to prime the Hadley Circulation for a larger deceleration under CO2 doubling, by altering subtropical stratus decks and the meridional feedback gradient. We perform targeted experiments to isolate the atmospheric processes responsible for the variability in climate sensitivity, with implications for high-sensitivity paleoclimates. The local climate response is characterized in terms of the meridional structure of feedbacks, atmospheric heat transport, nonlinearities, and forcing. Our results display a combination of positive subtropical feedbacks and polar amplified warming. These two factors imply a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: anomalous divergence of heat flux away from positive feedbacks in the subtropics; clear-sky nonlinearities that reinforce the pattern of tropical cooling and high-latitude warming tendencies; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. These results have implications for regional climate predictability, by providing an indication of how spatial patterns in feedbacks combine to affect both the local and nonlocal climate response, and how constraining uncertainty in those feedbacks may constrain the climate response. We also consider how competing definitions of feedbacks influence interpretation of climate sensitivity. While climate feedbacks represent a convenient breakdown of the energy balance, their widespread appeal has led to a profusion of definitions, and to variations upon the traditional decomposition. We demonstrate that a locally defined feedback framework does provide several advantages from the perspective of regional climate predictability. Namely, it enables a partial temperature change analysis which quantifies contributions to spatial patterns of warming; it also ensures feedbacks are not biased at high latitudes due to polar amplification. Alternative approaches to characterizing feedbacks can also isolate and illuminate different atmospheric processes. In particular, comparison of two versions of the water vapor feedback, one focused on specific humidity and the other on relative humidity, allows for an elegant dissection of the relative importance of thermodynamical and dynamical changes in a warmer world.
Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten; Giannini, Alessandra

2017-06-01

Given the uncertainties in climate model projections of Sahel precipitation, at the northern edge of the West African Monsoon, understanding the factors governing projected precipitation changes in this semiarid region is crucial. This study investigates how long-term soil moisture changes projected under climate change may feedback on projected changes of Sahel rainfall, using simulations with and without soil moisture change from five climate models participating in the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 experiment. In four out of five models analyzed, soil moisture feedbacks significantly influence the projected West African precipitation response to warming; however, the sign of these feedbacks differs across the models. These results demonstrate that reducing uncertainties across model projections of the West African Monsoon requires, among other factors, improved mechanistic understanding and constraint of simulated land-atmosphere feedbacks, even at the large spatial scales considered here.Plain Language SummaryClimate model projections of Sahel rainfall remain notoriously uncertain; understanding the physical processes responsible for this uncertainty is thus crucial. Our study focuses on analyzing the feedbacks of soil moisture changes on model projections of the West African Monsoon under global warming. Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions have been shown in prior studies to play an important role in this region, but the potential feedbacks of long-term soil moisture changes on projected precipitation changes have not been investigated specifically. To isolate these feedbacks, we use targeted simulations from five climate models, with and without soil moisture change. Importantly, we find that climate models exhibit soil moisture-precipitation feedbacks of different sign in this region: in some models soil moisture changes amplify precipitation changes (positive feedback), in others they dampen them (negative feedback). The impact of those feedbacks is in some cases of comparable amplitude to the projected precipitation changes themselves. In other words, we show, over a subset of climate models, how land-atmosphere interactions may be a cause of uncertainty in model projections of precipitation; we emphasize the need to evaluate these processes carefully in current and next-generation climate model simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A21I..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A21I..01M">AIRS Observations Based Evaluation of Relative Climate Feedback Strengths on a GCM Grid-Scale</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Molnar, G. I.; Susskind, J. 2012-12-01 Climate feedback strengths, especially those associated with moist processes, still have a rather wide range in GCMs, the primary tools to predict future climate changes associated with man's ever increasing influences on our planet. Here, we make use of the first 10 years of AIRS observations to evaluate interrelationships/correlations of atmospheric moist parameter anomalies computed from AIRS Version 5 Level-3 products, and demonstrate their usefulness to assess relative feedback strengths. Although one may argue about the possible usability of shorter-term, observed climate parameter anomalies for estimating the strength of various (mostly moist processes related) feedbacks, recent works, in particular analyses by Dessler [2008, 2010], have demonstrated their usefulness in assessing global water vapor and cloud feedbacks. First, we create AIRS-observed monthly anomaly time-series (ATs) of outgoing longwave radiation, water vapor, clouds and temperature profile over a 10-year long (Sept. 2002 through Aug. 2012) period using 1x1 degree resolution (a common GCM grid-scale). Next, we evaluate the interrelationships of ATs of the above parameters with the corresponding 1x1 degree, as well as global surface temperature ATs. The latter provides insight comparable with more traditional climate feedback definitions (e. g., Zelinka and Hartmann, 2012) whilst the former is related to a new definition of "local (in surface temperature too) feedback strengths" on a GCM grid-scale. Comparing the correlation maps generated provides valuable new information on the spatial distribution of relative climate feedback strengths. We argue that for GCMs to be trusted for predicting longer-term climate variability, they should be able to reproduce these observed relationships/metrics as closely as possible. For this time period the main climate "forcing" was associated with the El Niño/La Niña variability (e. g., Dessler, 2010), so these assessments may not be descriptive of longer-term climate feedbacks due to global warming, for example. Nevertheless, one should take more confidence of greenhouse warming predictions of those GCMs that reproduce the (high quality observations-based) shorter-term feedback-relationships the best. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li class="active">1</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_2" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="21"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A52A..05C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A52A..05C">A Digital Map From External Forcing to the Final Surface Warming Pattern and its Seasonal Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cai, M. 2015-12-01 Historically, only the thermodynamic processes (e.g., water vapor, cloud, surface albedo, and atmospheric lapse rate) that directly influence the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy flux balance are considered in climate feedback analysis. One of my recent research areas is to develop a new framework for climate feedback analysis that explicitly takes into consideration not only the thermodynamic processes that the directly influence the TOA radiative energy flux balance but also the local dynamical (e.g., evaporation, surface sensible heat flux, vertical convections etc) and non-local dynamical (large-scale horizontal energy transport) processes in aiming to explain the warming asymmetry between high and low latitudes, between ocean and land, and between the surface and atmosphere. In the last 5-6 years, we have developed a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method (CFRAM) as a new framework for estimating climate feedback and sensitivity in coupled general circulation models with a full physical parameterization package. In the CFRAM, the isolation of partial temperature changes due to an external forcing alone or an individual feedback is achieved by solving the linearized infrared radiation transfer model subject to individual energy flux perturbations (external or due to feedbacks). The partial temperature changes are addable and their sum is equal to the (total) temperature change (in the linear sense). The CFRAM is used to isolate the partial temperature changes due to the external forcing, due to water vapor feedback, clouds, surface albedo, local vertical convection, and non-local atmospheric dynamical feedbacks, as well as oceanic heat storage. It has been shown that seasonal variations in the cloud feedback, surface albedo feedback, and ocean heat storage/dynamics feedback, directly caused by the strong annual cycle of insolation, contribute primarily to the large seasonal variation of polar warming. Furthermore, the CO2 forcing, and water vapor and atmospheric dynamics feedbacks add to the maximum polar warming in fall/winter. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25729440','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25729440">A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A 2015-01-01 State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 . </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A21D0198Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFM.A21D0198Y">A Comparison of Climate Feedback Strength between CO2 Doubling and LGM Experiments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yoshimori, M.; Yokohata, T.; Abe-Ouchi, A. 2008-12-01 Studies of past climate potentially provide a constraint on the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, but previous studies warn against a simple scaling to the future. The climate sensitivity is determined by various feedback processes and they may vary with climate states and forcings. In this study, we investigate similarities and differences of feedbacks for a CO2 doubling, a last glacial maximum (LGM), and LGM greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing experiments, using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. After computing the radiative forcing, the individual feedback strengths: water vapor, lapse rate, albedo, and cloud feedbacks, are evaluated explicitly. For this particular model, the difference in the climate sensitivity among experiments is attributed to the shortwave cloud feedback in which there is a tendency that it becomes weaker or even negative in the cooling experiments. No significant difference is found in the water vapor feedback between warming and cooling experiments by GHGs despite the nonlinear dependence of the Clausius-Clapeyron relation on temperature. The weaker water vapor feedback in the LGM experiment due to a relatively weaker tropical forcing is compensated by the stronger lapse rate feedback due to a relatively stronger extratropical forcing. A hypothesis is proposed which explains the asymmetric cloud response between warming and cooling experiments associated with a displacement of the region of mixed- phase clouds. The difference in the total feedback strength between experiments is, however, relatively small compared to the current intermodel spread, and does not necessarily preclude the use of LGM climate as a future constraint. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24618822','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24618822">Spatial climate patterns explain negligible variation in strength of compensatory density feedbacks in birds and mammals.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J A 2014-01-01 The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate--at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3950218','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3950218">Spatial Climate Patterns Explain Negligible Variation in Strength of Compensatory Density Feedbacks in Birds and Mammals</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Herrando-Pérez, Salvador; Delean, Steven; Brook, Barry W.; Cassey, Phillip; Bradshaw, Corey J. A. 2014-01-01 The use of long-term population data to separate the demographic role of climate from density-modified demographic processes has become a major topic of ecological investigation over the last two decades. Although the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that determine the strength of density feedbacks are now well understood, the degree to which climate gradients shape those processes across taxa and broad spatial scales remains unclear. Intuitively, harsh or highly variable environmental conditions should weaken compensatory density feedbacks because populations are hypothetically unable to achieve or maintain densities at which social and trophic interactions (e.g., competition, parasitism, predation, disease) might systematically reduce population growth. Here we investigate variation in the strength of compensatory density feedback, from long-term time series of abundance over 146 species of birds and mammals, in response to spatial gradients of broad-scale temperature precipitation variables covering 97 localities in 28 countries. We use information-theoretic metrics to rank phylogenetic generalized least-squares regression models that control for sample size (time-series length) and phylogenetic non-independence. Climatic factors explained < 1% of the remaining variation in density-feedback strength across species, with the highest non-control, model-averaged effect sizes related to extreme precipitation variables. We could not link our results directly to other published studies, because ecologists use contrasting responses, predictors and statistical approaches to correlate density feedback and climate – at the expense of comparability in a macroecological context. Censuses of multiple populations within a given species, and a priori knowledge of the spatial scales at which density feedbacks interact with climate, seem to be necessary to determine cross-taxa variation in this phenomenon. Despite the availability of robust modelling tools, the appropriate data have not yet been gathered for most species, meaning that we cannot yet make any robust generalisations about how demographic feedbacks interact with climate. PMID:24618822 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19..453L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19..453L">Feedbacks between climate change and biosphere integrity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lade, Steven; Anderies, J. Marty; Donges, Jonathan; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah; Norberg, Jon; Fetzer, Ingo 2017-04-01 The terrestrial and marine biospheres sink substantial fractions of human fossil fuel emissions. How the biosphere's capacity to sink carbon depends on biodiversity and other measures of biosphere integrity is however poorly understood. Here, we (1): review assumptions from literature regarding the relationships between the carbon cycle and the terrestrial and marine biospheres; and (2) explore the consequences of these different assumptions for climate feedbacks using the stylised carbon cycle model PB-INT. We find that: terrestrial biodiversity loss could significantly dampen climate-carbon cycle feedbacks; direct biodiversity effects, if they exist, could rival temperature increases from low-emission trajectories; and the response of the marine biosphere is critical for longer term climate change. Simple, low-dimensional climate models such as PB-INT can help assess the importance of still unknown or controversial earth system processes such as biodiversity loss for climate feedbacks. This study constitutes the first detailed study of the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, two of the 'planetary boundaries'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150000789','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20150000789">Diagnosis of Middle Atmosphere Climate Sensitivity by the Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Zhu, Xun; Yee, Jeng-Hwa; Cai, Ming; Swartz, William H.; Coy, Lawrence; Aquila, Valentina; Talaat, Elsayed R. 2014-01-01 We present a new method to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity by extending the Climate Feedback-Response Analysis Method (CFRAM) for the coupled atmosphere-surface system to the middle atmosphere. The Middle atmosphere CFRAM (MCFRAM) is built on the atmospheric energy equation per unit mass with radiative heating and cooling rates as its major thermal energy sources. MCFRAM preserves the CFRAM unique feature of an additive property for which the sum of all partial temperature changes due to variations in external forcing and feedback processes equals the observed temperature change. In addition, MCFRAM establishes a physical relationship of radiative damping between the energy perturbations associated with various feedback processes and temperature perturbations associated with thermal responses. MCFRAM is applied to both measurements and model output fields to diagnose the middle atmosphere climate sensitivity. It is found that the largest component of the middle atmosphere temperature response to the 11-year solar cycle (solar maximum vs. solar minimum) is directly from the partial temperature change due to the variation of the input solar flux. Increasing CO2 always cools the middle atmosphere with time whereas partial temperature change due to O3 variation could be either positive or negative. The partial temperature changes due to different feedbacks show distinctly different spatial patterns. The thermally driven globally averaged partial temperature change due to all radiative processes is approximately equal to the observed temperature change, ranging from 0.5 K near 70 km from the near solar maximum to the solar minimum. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21456825','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21456825">Regular network model for the sea ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Müller-Stoffels, Marc; Wackerbauer, Renate 2011-03-01 The Arctic Ocean and sea ice form a feedback system that plays an important role in the global climate. The complexity of highly parameterized global circulation (climate) models makes it very difficult to assess feedback processes in climate without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics is understood. We introduce a two-dimensional energy-based regular network model to investigate feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The model includes the nonlinear aspect of the ice-water phase transition, a nonlinear diffusive energy transport within a heterogeneous ice-ocean lattice, and spatiotemporal atmospheric and oceanic forcing at the surfaces. First results for a horizontally homogeneous ice-ocean layer show bistability and related hysteresis between perennial ice and perennial open water for varying atmospheric heat influx. Seasonal ice cover exists as a transient phenomenon. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RvGeo..56..207D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RvGeo..56..207D">Methane Feedbacks to the Global Climate System in a Warmer World</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dean, Joshua F.; Middelburg, Jack J.; Röckmann, Thomas; Aerts, Rien; Blauw, Luke G.; Egger, Matthias; Jetten, Mike S. M.; de Jong, Anniek E. E.; Meisel, Ove H.; Rasigraf, Olivia; Slomp, Caroline P.; in't Zandt, Michiel H.; Dolman, A. J. 2018-03-01 Methane (CH4) is produced in many natural systems that are vulnerable to change under a warming climate, yet current CH4 budgets, as well as future shifts in CH4 emissions, have high uncertainties. Climate change has the potential to increase CH4 emissions from critical systems such as wetlands, marine and freshwater systems, permafrost, and methane hydrates, through shifts in temperature, hydrology, vegetation, landscape disturbance, and sea level rise. Increased CH4 emissions from these systems would in turn induce further climate change, resulting in a positive climate feedback. Here we synthesize biological, geochemical, and physically focused CH4 climate feedback literature, bringing together the key findings of these disciplines. We discuss environment-specific feedback processes, including the microbial, physical, and geochemical interlinkages and the timescales on which they operate, and present the current state of knowledge of CH4 climate feedbacks in the immediate and distant future. The important linkages between microbial activity and climate warming are discussed with the aim to better constrain the sensitivity of the CH4 cycle to future climate predictions. We determine that wetlands will form the majority of the CH4 climate feedback up to 2100. Beyond this timescale, CH4 emissions from marine and freshwater systems and permafrost environments could become more important. Significant CH4 emissions to the atmosphere from the dissociation of methane hydrates are not expected in the near future. Our key findings highlight the importance of quantifying whether CH4 consumption can counterbalance CH4 production under future climate scenarios. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56130','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56130">Towards a predictive understanding of belowground process responses to climate change: have we moved any closer?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Elise Pendall; Lindsey Rustad; Josh Schimel 2008-01-01 Belowground processes, including root production and exudation, microbial activity and community dynamics, and biogeochemical cycling interact to help regulate climate change. Feedbacks associated with these processes, such as warming-enhanced decomposition rates, give rise to major uncertainties in predictions of future climate. Uncertainties associated with these... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H51E0805P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007AGUFM.H51E0805P">Amphitheater-Headed Valleys: Unique or Non-Unique Origin? The Hawaiian Laboratory</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pederson, D. T.; Blay, C. 2007-12-01 While the formation and migration of amphitheaters (knickpoints) in unconsolidated sediment is fairly well understood the same cannot be said for amphitheaters formed in a variety of bedrock types, climate settings, and even planetary location. The question remains, is there a single knickpoint forming process at work or do multiple landscape forming processes have a convergence tendency because of cybernetic feedback? A simple example would be a waterfall creating a micro-environment that enhances and focuses specific landscape forming processes like weathering, microbial action, and vegetation growth aiding in the continuation of the knickpoint form. It should be noted that weathering, microbial growth and vegetation growth would have cybernetic feedback among them. In fact it may be difficult to determine the controlling process, if any. If one considers that knickpoints likely intercept the regional groundwater flow system there is an additional focused source of water supply which further contributes to the micro-environment of the knickpoint. Groundwater discharge has significant cybernetic feedbacks with landscape forming processes. The nature and composition of the bedrock and climatic factors may determine rates of knickpoint migration but the resulting morphologic features in different settings would likely be similar with cybernetic feedback. It should be noted that cybernetic feedback can either be damping or amplifying. Amphitheater-headed valleys have developed in many locations on the Hawaiian Islands. The islands have formed in a time sequence as the supporting oceanic plate moves over a focused mantle source for the basalts. The amphitheaters of Hawaii occur in "fresh" and "older" basaltic rock depending on island location. Weathering processes have acted longer on some islands. Because of the topography and its affect on trade winds the main islands have focused rainfall, significant recharge, and active groundwater flow systems. While climate is uniform overall, the wet and dry sides of the islands coupled with topography represent multiple climatic zones. This affords the opportunity to use the Hawaiian Islands as a laboratory to study the cybernetic feedbacks among knickpoint forming processes. Feedback examples will be presented for several Hawaiian knickpoints. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A51C0053C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A51C0053C">A High-Latitude Winter Continental Low Cloud Feedback Suppresses Arctic Air Formation in Warmer Climates</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.; Li, H. 2015-12-01 High latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. It has also been found that the high-latitude lapse rate feedback plays an important role in Arctic amplification of climate change in climate model simulations, but we have little understanding of why lapse rates at high latitudes change so strongly with warming. To better understand these problems, we study Arctic air formation - the process by which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent during polar night, cooled at the surface by radiation, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass - and its sensitivity to climate warming. We use a single-column version of the WRF model to conduct two-week simulations of the cooling process across a wide range of initial temperature profiles and microphysics schemes, and find that a low cloud feedback suppresses Arctic air formation in warmer climates. This cloud feedback consists of an increase in low cloud amount with warming, which shields the surface from radiative cooling, and increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ~10 days for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 oC. Given that this is about the time it takes an air mass starting over the Pacific to traverse the north American continent, this suggests that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. We find that CMIP5 climate model runs show large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, consistent with the proposed low-cloud feedback. The suppression of Arctic air formation with warming may act as a significant amplifier of climate change at high latitudes, and offers a mechanistic perspective on the high-latitude "lapse rate feedback" diagnosed in climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=carbon+AND+balance&id=EJ335094','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=carbon+AND+balance&id=EJ335094">The Arctic's Role in Climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Baker, D. James 1986-01-01 Discusses the special role the Arctic region plays in climate, focusing on: (1) the global energy balance; (2) feedback mechanisms; (3) effects of increasing carbon dioxide; and (4) climate processes study programs. (JN) </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017175','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017175">Satellite orbit and data sampling requirements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Rossow, William 1993-01-01 Climate forcings and feedbacks vary over a wide range of time and space scales. The operation of non-linear feedbacks can couple variations at widely separated time and space scales and cause climatological phenomena to be intermittent. Consequently, monitoring of global, decadal changes in climate requires global observations that cover the whole range of space-time scales and are continuous over several decades. The sampling of smaller space-time scales must have sufficient statistical accuracy to measure the small changes in the forcings and feedbacks anticipated in the next few decades, while continuity of measurements is crucial for unambiguous interpretation of climate change. Shorter records of monthly and regional (500-1000 km) measurements with similar accuracies can also provide valuable information about climate processes, when 'natural experiments' such as large volcanic eruptions or El Ninos occur. In this section existing satellite datasets and climate model simulations are used to test the satellite orbits and sampling required to achieve accurate measurements of changes in forcings and feedbacks at monthly frequency and 1000 km (regional) scale. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SGeo...38.1483W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017SGeo...38.1483W">Observational Constraints on Cloud Feedbacks: The Role of Active Satellite Sensors</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Winker, David; Chepfer, Helene; Noel, Vincent; Cai, Xia 2017-11-01 Cloud profiling from active lidar and radar in the A-train satellite constellation has significantly advanced our understanding of clouds and their role in the climate system. Nevertheless, the response of clouds to a warming climate remains one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change and for the development of adaptions to change. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. We review recent progress in our understanding of the cloud feedback problem. Capabilities and advantages of active sensors for observing clouds are discussed, along with the importance of active sensors for deriving constraints on cloud feedbacks as an essential component of a global climate observing system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1418937-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity-proposed-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1418937-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity-proposed-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity">On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M.; ... 2018-01-11 Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1418937-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity-proposed-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1418937-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity-proposed-emergent-constraints-climate-sensitivity">On the Emergent Constraints of Climate Sensitivity [On proposed emergent constraints of climate sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; DeAngelis, Anthony M. Differences among climate models in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the equilibrium surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2) remain a significant barrier to the accurate assessment of societally important impacts of climate change. Relationships between ECS and observable metrics of the current climate in model ensembles, so-called emergent constraints, have been used to constrain ECS. Here a statistical method (including a backward selection process) is employed to achieve a better statistical understanding of the connections between four recently proposed emergent constraint metrics and individual feedbacks influencing ECS. The relationship between each metric and ECS is largely attributable tomore » a statistical connection with shortwave low cloud feedback, the leading cause of intermodel ECS spread. This result bolsters confidence in some of the metrics, which had assumed such a connection in the first place. Additional analysis is conducted with a few thousand artificial metrics that are randomly generated but are well correlated with ECS. The relationships between the contrived metrics and ECS can also be linked statistically to shortwave cloud feedback. Thus, any proposed or forthcoming ECS constraint based on the current generation of climate models should be viewed as a potential constraint on shortwave cloud feedback, and physical links with that feedback should be investigated to verify that the constraint is real. Additionally, any proposed ECS constraint should not be taken at face value since other factors influencing ECS besides shortwave cloud feedback could be systematically biased in the models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008GeoRL..35.4802A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008GeoRL..35.4802A">CO2 forcing induces semi-direct effects with consequences for climate feedback interpretations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M. 2008-02-01 Climate forcing and feedbacks are diagnosed from seven slab-ocean GCMs for 2 × CO2 using a regression method. Results are compared to those using conventional methodologies to derive a semi-direct forcing due to tropospheric adjustment, analogous to the semi-direct effect of absorbing aerosols. All models show a cloud semi-direct effect, indicating a rapid cloud response to CO2; cloud typically decreases, enhancing the warming. Similarly there is evidence of semi-direct effects from water-vapour, lapse-rate, ice and snow. Previous estimates of climate feedbacks are unlikely to have taken these semi-direct effects into account and so misinterpret processes as feedbacks that depend only on the forcing, but not the global surface temperature. We show that the actual cloud feedback is smaller than what previous methods suggest and that a significant part of the cloud response and the large spread between previous model estimates of cloud feedback is due to the semi-direct forcing. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3752277','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3752277">Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Zeebe, Richard E. 2013-01-01 Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23918402','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23918402">Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zeebe, Richard E 2013-08-20 Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li class="active">2</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_3" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="41"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1169419-collaborative-research-process-resolving-decomposition-global-temperature-response-modes-low-frequency-variability-changing-climate','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1169419-collaborative-research-process-resolving-decomposition-global-temperature-response-modes-low-frequency-variability-changing-climate">Collaborative Research: Process-resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Cai, Ming; Deng, Yi 2015-02-06 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The future projection of the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models. A comprehensive understanding of the factors responsible for the inter-model discrepancies in projecting future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, in terms of multiple feedback processes involved, has yet to be achieved. The proposed research aims to identify sources of such uncertainty and establish a set of process-resolving quantitative evaluations of the existing predictions ofmore » the future ENSO and AM variability. The proposed process-resolving evaluations are based on a feedback analysis method formulated in Lu and Cai (2009), which is capable of partitioning 3D temperature anomalies/perturbations into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. Taking advantage of the high-resolution, multi-model ensemble products from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) soon to be available at the Lawrence Livermore National Lab, we will conduct a process-resolving decomposition of the global three-dimensional (3D) temperature (including SST) response to the ENSO and AM variability in the preindustrial, historical and future climate simulated by these models. Specific research tasks include 1) identifying the model-observation discrepancies in the global temperature response to ENSO and AM variability and attributing such discrepancies to specific feedback processes, 2) delineating the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the key feedback processes operating on ENSO and AM variability and quantifying their relative contributions to the changes in the temperature anomalies associated with different phases of ENSO and AMs, and 3) investigating the linkages between model feedback processes that lead to inter-model differences in time-mean temperature projection and model feedback processes that cause inter-model differences in the simulated ENSO and AM temperature response. Through a thorough model-observation and inter-model comparison of the multiple energetic processes associated with ENSO and AM variability, the proposed research serves to identify key uncertainties in model representation of ENSO and AM variability, and investigate how the model uncertainty in predicting time-mean response is related to the uncertainty in predicting response of the low-frequency modes. The proposal is thus a direct response to the first topical area of the solicitation: Interaction of Climate Change and Low Frequency Modes of Natural Climate Variability. It ultimately supports the accomplishment of the BER climate science activity Long Term Measure (LTM): "Deliver improved scientific data and models about the potential response of the Earth's climate and terrestrial biosphere to increased greenhouse gas levels for policy makers to determine safe levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1030607','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1030607">Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Liu, Zhengyu; Kutzbach, J.; Jacob, R. 2011-12-05 In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadalmore » climate prediction.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2367W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2367W">Changes in ENSO amplitude under climate warming and cooling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, Yingying; Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai 2018-05-01 The response of ENSO amplitude to climate warming and cooling is investigated using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), in which the warming and cooling scenarios are designed by adding heat fluxes of equal amplitude but opposite sign onto the ocean surface, respectively. Results show that the warming induces an increase of the ENSO amplitude but the cooling gives rise to a decrease of the ENSO amplitude, and these changes are robust in statistics. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that the increasing (decreasing) SST tendency under climate warming (cooling) is mainly due to an enhancement (weakening) of dynamical feedback processes over the equatorial Pacific, including zonal advective (ZA) feedback, meridional advective (MA) feedback, thermocline (TH) feedback, and Ekman (EK) feedback. As the climate warms, a wind anomaly of the same magnitude across the equatorial Pacific can induce a stronger zonal current change in the east (i.e., a stronger ZA feedback), which in turn produces a greater weakening of upwelling (i.e., a stronger EK feedback) and thus a larger thermocline change (i.e., a stronger TH feedback). In response to the climate warming, in addition, the MA feedback is also strengthened due to an enhancement of the meridional SST gradient around the equator resulting from a weakening of the subtropical cells (STCs). It should be noted that the weakened STCs itself has a negative contribution to the change of the MA feedback which, however, appears to be secondary. And vice versa for the cooling case. Bjerknes linear stability (BJ) index is also evaluated for the linear stability of ENSO, with remarkably larger (smaller) BJ index found for the warming (cooling) case. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A11S..04W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A11S..04W">Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.; Kim, D.; Moon, Y.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M. 2017-12-01 In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However, biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore tropical cyclogenesis and intensification processes in six high-resolution climate models from NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, and NASA, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We use two methods of compositing: a composite over all TC track points in a given intensity range, and a composite relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm (at the same stage in the TC life cycle). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26026414','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26026414">Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L 2015-10-15 Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29215021','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29215021">An improved ENSO simulation by representing chlorophyll-induced climate feedback in the NCAR Community Earth System Model.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kang, Xianbiao; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Zhu, Jieshun 2017-12-07 The El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) simulated in the Community Earth System Model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR CESM) is much stronger than in reality. Here, satellite data are used to derive a statistical relationship between interannual variations in oceanic chlorophyll (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST), which is then incorporated into the CESM to represent oceanic chlorophyll -induced climate feedback in the tropical Pacific. Numerical runs with and without the feedback (referred to as feedback and non-feedback runs) are performed and compared with each other. The ENSO amplitude simulated in the feedback run is more accurate than that in the non-feedback run; quantitatively, the Niño3 SST index is reduced by 35% when the feedback is included. The underlying processes are analyzed and the results show that interannual CHL anomalies exert a systematic modulating effect on the solar radiation penetrating into the subsurface layers, which induces differential heating in the upper ocean that affects vertical mixing and thus SST. The statistical modeling approach proposed in this work offers an effective and economical way for improving climate simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22272362','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22272362">Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis 2012-01-01 Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3260292','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3260292">Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis 2012-01-01 Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2337M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.2337M">Untangling climatic and autogenic signals in peat records</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andrew J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T. 2016-04-01 Raised bogs contain potentially valuable information about Holocene climate change. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behaviour from climate, and overwrite and degrade climatic signals in peat records. How can genuine climate signals be separated from autogenic changes? What level of detail of climatic information should we expect to be able to recover from peat-based reconstructions? We used an updated version of the DigiBog model to simulate peatland development and response to reconstructed Holocene rainfall and temperature reconstructions. The model represents key processes that are influential in peatland development and climate signal preservation, and includes a network of feedbacks between peat accumulation, decomposition, hydraulic structure and hydrological processes. It also incorporates the effects of temperature upon evapotranspiration, plant (litter) productivity and peat decomposition. Negative feedbacks in the model cause simulated water-table depths and peat humification records to exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, chiefly through changes in drainage. However, the simulated bogs show less resilience to changes in temperature, which cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function and may therefore be more readily detectable in peat records. The network of feedbacks represented in DigiBog also provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, meaning that the fidelity with which climate signals are preserved in simulated peatlands is determined by both the magnitude and the rate of climate change. Large-magnitude climatic events of an intermediate frequency (i.e., multi-decadal to centennial) are best preserved in the simulated bogs. We found that simulated humification records are further degraded by a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Decomposition signals are consistently offset from the climatic events that generate them, and decomposition records of dry-wet-dry climate sequences appear to be particularly vulnerable to overwriting. Our findings have direct implications not only for the interpretation of peat-based records of past climates, but also for understanding the likely vulnerability of peatland ecosystems and carbon stocks to future climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1020H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.1020H">The biological carbon pump in the ocean: Reviewing model representations and its feedbacks on climate perturbations.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hülse, Dominik; Arndt, Sandra; Ridgwell, Andy; Wilson, Jamie 2016-04-01 The ocean-sediment system, as the biggest carbon reservoir in the Earth's carbon cycle, plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate. Therefore, it is essential to constrain the importance of marine carbon cycle feedbacks on global warming and ocean acidification. Arguably, the most important single component of the ocean's carbon cycle is the so-called "biological carbon pump". It transports carbon that is fixed in the light-flooded surface layer of the ocean to the deep ocean and the surface sediment, where it is degraded/dissolved or finally buried in the deep sediments. Over the past decade, progress has been made in understanding different factors that control the efficiency of the biological carbon pump and their feedbacks on the global carbon cycle and climate (i.e. ballasting = ocean acidification feedback; temperature dependant organic matter degradation = global warming feedback; organic matter sulphurisation = anoxia/euxinia feedback). Nevertheless, many uncertainties concerning the interplay of these processes and/or their relative significance remain. In addition, current Earth System Models tend to employ empirical and static parameterisations of the biological pump. As these parametric representations are derived from a limited set of present-day observations, their ability to represent carbon cycle feedbacks under changing climate conditions is limited. The aim of my research is to combine past carbon cycling information with a spatially resolved global biogeochemical model to constrain the functioning of the biological pump and to base its mathematical representation on a more mechanistic approach. Here, I will discuss important aspects that control the efficiency of the ocean's biological carbon pump, review how these processes of first order importance are mathematically represented in existing Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) and distinguish different approaches to approximate biogeochemical processes in the sediments. The performance of the respective mathematical representations in constraining the importance of carbon pump feedbacks on marine biogeochemical dynamics is then compared and evaluated under different extreme climate scenarios (e.g. OAE2, Eocene) using the Earth system model 'GENIE' and proxy records. The compiled mathematical descriptions and the model results underline the lack of a complete and mechanistic framework to represent the short-term carbon cycle in most EMICs which seriously limits the ability of these models to constrain the response of the ocean's carbon cycle to past and in particular future climate change. In conclusion, this presentation will critically evaluate the approaches currently used in marine biogeochemical modelling and outline key research directions concerning model development in the future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50..615H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50..615H">Observational estimation of radiative feedback to surface air temperature over Northern High Latitudes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hwang, Jiwon; Choi, Yong-Sang; Kim, WonMoo; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H. 2018-01-01 The high-latitude climate system contains complicated, but largely veiled physical feedback processes. Climate predictions remain uncertain, especially for the Northern High Latitudes (NHL; north of 60°N), and observational constraint on climate modeling is vital. This study estimates local radiative feedbacks for NHL based on the CERES/Terra satellite observations during March 2000-November 2014. The local shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative feedback parameters are calculated from linear regression of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere on surface air temperatures. These parameters are estimated by the de-seasonalization and 12-month moving average of the radiative fluxes over NHL. The estimated magnitudes of the SW and the LW radiative feedbacks in NHL are 1.88 ± 0.73 and 2.38 ± 0.59 W m-2 K-1, respectively. The parameters are further decomposed into individual feedback components associated with surface albedo, water vapor, lapse rate, and clouds, as a product of the change in climate variables from ERA-Interim reanalysis estimates and their pre-calculated radiative kernels. The results reveal the significant role of clouds in reducing the surface albedo feedback (1.13 ± 0.44 W m-2 K-1 in the cloud-free condition, and 0.49 ± 0.30 W m-2 K-1 in the all-sky condition), while the lapse rate feedback is predominant in LW radiation (1.33 ± 0.18 W m-2 K-1). However, a large portion of the local SW and LW radiative feedbacks were not simply explained by the sum of these individual feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA51A4040M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA51A4040M">How Sensitive Is the Carbon Budget Approach to Potential Carbon Cycle Changes?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Matthews, D. 2014-12-01 The recent development of global Earth-system models, which include dynamic representations of both physical climate and carbon cycle processes, has led to new insights about how the climate responds to human carbon dioxide emissions. Notably, several model analyses have now shown that global temperature responds linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions across a wide range of emissions scenarios. This implies that the timing of CO2 emissions does not affect the overall climate response, and allows a finite global carbon carbon budget to be defined for a given global temperature target. This linear climate response, however, emerges from the interaction of several non-linear processes and feedbacks involving how carbon sinks respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 and climate. In this presentation, I will give an overview of how carbon sinks and carbon cycle feedbacks contribute to the overall linearity of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and will assess how robust this relationship is to a range of possible changes in the carbon cycle, including (a) potential positive carbon cycle feedbacks that are not well represented in the current generation of Earth-system models and (b) negative emission scenarios resulting from possible technological strategies to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1265616-multicentury-changes-ocean-land-contributions-climate-carbon-feedback','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1265616-multicentury-changes-ocean-land-contributions-climate-carbon-feedback">Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E. Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GBioC..29..744R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GBioC..29..744R">Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C. 2015-06-01 Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513426T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1513426T">On the linkages between the global carbon-nitrogen-phosphorus cycles</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tanaka, Katsumasa; Mackenzie, Fred; Bouchez, Julien; Knutti, Reto 2013-04-01 State-of-the-art earth system models used for long-term climate projections are becoming ever more complex in terms of not only spatial resolution but also the number of processes. Biogeochemical processes are beginning to be incorporated into these models. The motivation of this study is to quantify how climate projections are influenced by biogeochemical feedbacks. In the climate modeling community, it is virtually accepted that climate-Carbon (C) cycle feedbacks accelerate the future warming (Cox et al. 2000; Friedlingstein et al. 2006). It has been demonstrated that the Nitrogen (N) cycle suppresses climate-C cycle feedbacks (Thornton et al. 2009). On the contrary, biogeochemical studies show that the coupled C-N-Phosphorus (P) cycles are intimately interlinked via biosphere and the N-P cycles amplify C cycle feedbacks (Ver et al. 1999). The question as to whether the N-P cycles enhance or attenuate C cycle feedbacks is debated and has a significant implication for projections of future climate. We delve into this problem by using the Terrestrial-Ocean-aTmosphere Ecosystem Model 3 (TOTEM3), a globally-aggregated C-N-P cycle box model. TOTEM3 is a process-based model that describes the biogeochemical reactions and physical transports involving these elements in the four domains of the Earth system: land, atmosphere, coastal ocean, and open ocean. TOTEM3 is a successor of earlier TOTEM models (Ver et al. 1999; Mackenzie et al. 2011). In our presentation, we provide an overview of fundamental features and behaviors of TOTEM3 such as the mass balance at the steady state and the relaxation time scales to various types of perturbation. We also show preliminary results to investigate how the N-P cycles influence the behavior of the C cycle. References Cox PM, Betts RA, Jones CD, Spall SA, Totterdell IJ (2000) Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature, 408, 184-187. Friedlingstein P, Cox P, Betts R, Bopp L, von Bloh W, Brovkin V, Cadule P, Doney S, Eby M, Fung I, Bala G, John J, Jones C, Joos F, Kato T, Kawamiya M, Knorr W, Lindsay K, Matthews HD, Raddatz T, Rayner P, Reick C, Roeckner E, Schnitzler KG, Schnur R, Strassmann K, Weaver AJ, Yoshikawa C, Zeng N (2006) Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Mackenzie FT, De Carlo EH, Lerman A (2011) Coupled C, N, P, and O biogeochemical cycling at the land-ocean interface. In: Wolanski E, McLusky DS (eds) Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, vol 5. Academic Press, Waltham, pp 317-342. Thornton PE, Doney SC, Lindsay K, Moore JK, Mahowald N, Randerson JT, Fung I, Lamarque JF, Feddema JJ, Lee YH (2009) Carbon-nitrogen interactions regulate climate-carbon cycle feedbacks: results from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences, 6, 2099-2120. Ver LMB, Mackenzie FT, Lerman A (1999) Biogeochemical responses of the carbon cycle to natural and human perturbations: Past, present, and future. American Journal of Science, 299, 762-801. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=task+AND+conflict+AND+management&pg=4&id=EJ746421','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=task+AND+conflict+AND+management&pg=4&id=EJ746421">Relationships between Climate, Process, and Performance in Continuous Quality Improvement Groups</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Wilkens, Roxanne; London, Manuel 2006-01-01 This study examined relationships between group climate (participants' learning orientation, feelings of psychological safety, and self-disclosure), process (feedback and conflict), and performance in continuous quality improvement groups. Forty-nine participants in eight hospital groups were surveyed as the groups neared completion. Groups were… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21852573','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21852573">Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles 2011-09-06 Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdWR...51..326D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AdWR...51..326D">Global desertification: Drivers and feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> D'Odorico, Paolo; Bhattachan, Abinash; Davis, Kyle F.; Ravi, Sujith; Runyan, Christiane W. 2013-01-01 Desertification is a change in soil properties, vegetation or climate, which results in a persistent loss of ecosystem services that are fundamental to sustaining life. Desertification affects large dryland areas around the world and is a major cause of stress in human societies. Here we review recent research on the drivers, feedbacks, and impacts of desertification. A multidisciplinary approach to understanding the drivers and feedbacks of global desertification is motivated by our increasing need to improve global food production and to sustainably manage ecosystems in the context of climate change. Classic desertification theories look at this process as a transition between stable states in bistable ecosystem dynamics. Climate change (i.e., aridification) and land use dynamics are the major drivers of an ecosystem shift to a “desertified” (or “degraded”) state. This shift is typically sustained by positive feedbacks, which stabilize the system in the new state. Desertification feedbacks may involve land degradation processes (e.g., nutrient loss or salinization), changes in rainfall regime resulting from land-atmosphere interactions (e.g., precipitation recycling, dust emissions), or changes in plant community composition (e.g., shrub encroachment, decrease in vegetation cover). We analyze each of these feedback mechanisms and discuss their possible enhancement by interactions with socio-economic drivers. Large scale effects of desertification include the emigration of “environmental refugees” displaced from degraded areas, climatic changes, and the alteration of global biogeochemical cycles resulting from the emission and long-range transport of fine mineral dust. Recent research has identified some possible early warning signs of desertification, which can be used as indicators of resilience loss and imminent shift to desert-like conditions. We conclude with a brief discussion on some desertification control strategies implemented in different regions around the world. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31B1123C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31B1123C">Carbon-climate-human interactions in an integrated human-Earth system model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X. 2016-12-01 The C4MIP and CMIP5 results highlighted large uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by limited understanding of the interactions between terrestrial carbon-cycle and climate feedbacks, and their associated uncertainties. These feedbacks are dominated by uncertainties in soil processes, disturbance dynamics, ecosystem response to climate change, and agricultural productivity, and land-use change. This research addresses three questions: (1) how do terrestrial feedbacks vary across different levels of climate change, (2) what is the relative contribution of CO2 fertilization and climate change, and (3) how robust are the results across different models and methods? We used a coupled modeling framework that integrates an Integrated Assessment Model (modeling economic and energy activity) with an Earth System Model (modeling the natural earth system) to examine how business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) climate change will affect ecosystem productivity, cropland extent, and other aspects of the human-Earth system. We find that higher levels of radiative forcing result in higher productivity growth, that increases in CO2 concentrations are the dominant contributors to that growth, and that our productivity increases fall in the middle of the range when compared to other CMIP5 models and the AgMIP models. These results emphasize the importance of examining both the anthropogenic and natural components of the earth system, and their long-term interactive feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARH51003S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016APS..MARH51003S">Stochastic dynamics of melt ponds and sea ice-albedo climate feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sudakov, Ivan Evolution of melt ponds on the Arctic sea surface is a complicated stochastic process. We suggest a low-order model with ice-albedo feedback which describes stochastic dynamics of melt ponds geometrical characteristics. The model is a stochastic dynamical system model of energy balance in the climate system. We describe the equilibria in this model. We conclude the transition in fractal dimension of melt ponds affects the shape of the sea ice albedo curve. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>1</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li class="active">3</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_4" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="61"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23613585','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23613585">Assessment of radiative feedback in climate models using satellite observations of annual flux variation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Tsushima, Yoko; Manabe, Syukuro 2013-05-07 In the climate system, two types of radiative feedback are in operation. The feedback of the first kind involves the radiative damping of the vertically uniform temperature perturbation of the troposphere and Earth's surface that approximately follows the Stefan-Boltzmann law of blackbody radiation. The second kind involves the change in the vertical lapse rate of temperature, water vapor, and clouds in the troposphere and albedo of the Earth's surface. Using satellite observations of the annual variation of the outgoing flux of longwave radiation and that of reflected solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, this study estimates the so-called "gain factor," which characterizes the strength of radiative feedback of the second kind that operates on the annually varying, global-scale perturbation of temperature at the Earth's surface. The gain factor is computed not only for all sky but also for clear sky. The gain factor of so-called "cloud radiative forcing" is then computed as the difference between the two. The gain factors thus obtained are compared with those obtained from 35 models that were used for the fourth and fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Here, we show that the gain factors obtained from satellite observations of cloud radiative forcing are effective for identifying systematic biases of the feedback processes that control the sensitivity of simulated climate, providing useful information for validating and improving a climate model. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375993','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375993">Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E. This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375993-quantifying-sources-intermodel-spread-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1375993-quantifying-sources-intermodel-spread-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity">Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Taylor, Karl E.; ... 2016-01-07 This paper clarifies the causes of intermodel differences in the global-average temperature response to doubled CO 2, commonly known as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The authors begin by noting several issues with the standard approach for decomposing ECS into a sum of forcing and feedback terms. This leads to a derivation of an alternative method based on linearizing the effect of the net feedback. Consistent with previous studies, the new method identifies shortwave cloud feedback as the dominant source of intermodel spread in ECS. This new approach also reveals that covariances between cloud feedback and forcing, between lapse rate andmore » longwave cloud feedbacks, and between albedo and shortwave cloud feedbacks play an important and previously underappreciated role in determining model differences in ECS. Finally, defining feedbacks based on fixed relative rather than specific humidity (as suggested by Held and Shell) reduces the covariances between processes and leads to more straightforward interpretations of results.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19995981','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19995981">Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Riebesell, Ulf; Körtzinger, Arne; Oschlies, Andreas 2009-12-08 Throughout Earth's history, the oceans have played a dominant role in the climate system through the storage and transport of heat and the exchange of water and climate-relevant gases with the atmosphere. The ocean's heat capacity is approximately 1,000 times larger than that of the atmosphere, its content of reactive carbon more than 60 times larger. Through a variety of physical, chemical, and biological processes, the ocean acts as a driver of climate variability on time scales ranging from seasonal to interannual to decadal to glacial-interglacial. The same processes will also be involved in future responses of the ocean to global change. Here we assess the responses of the seawater carbonate system and of the ocean's physical and biological carbon pumps to (i) ocean warming and the associated changes in vertical mixing and overturning circulation, and (ii) ocean acidification and carbonation. Our analysis underscores that many of these responses have the potential for significant feedback to the climate system. Because several of the underlying processes are interlinked and nonlinear, the sign and magnitude of the ocean's carbon cycle feedback to climate change is yet unknown. Understanding these processes and their sensitivities to global change will be crucial to our ability to project future climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C12B..07R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C12B..07R">Climate in the absence of ocean heat transport</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rose, B. E. J. 2017-12-01 The energy transported by the oceans to mid- and high latitudes is small compared to the atmosphere, yet exerts an outsized influence on climate. A key reason is the strong interaction between ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice extent. I quantify the absolute climatic impact of OHT using the state-of-the-art CESM simulations by comparing a realistic control climate against a slab ocean simulation in which OHT is disabled. The absence of OHT leads to a massive expansion of sea ice into the subtropics in both hemispheres, and a 24 K global cooling. Analysis of the transient simulation after setting the OHT to zero reveals a global cooling process fueled by a runaway sea ice albedo feedback. This process is eventually self-limiting in the cold climate due to a combination of subtropical cloud feedbacks and surface wind effects that are both connected to a massive spin-up of the atmospheric Hadley circulation. A parameter sensitivity study shows that the simulated climate is far more sensitive to small changes in ice surface albedo in the absence of OHT. I conclude that the oceans are responsible for an enormous global warming by mitigating an otherwise very potent sea ice albedo feedback, but that the magnitude of this effect is rather uncertain. These simulations provide a graphic illustration of how the intimate coupling between sea ice and ocean circulation governs the present-day climate, and by extension, highlight the importance of modeling ocean - sea ice interaction with high fidelity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=review&pg=4&id=EJ1095290','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=review&pg=4&id=EJ1095290">Assessing Postgraduate Student Perceptions and Measures of Learning in a Peer Review Feedback Process</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Simpson, Genevieve; Clifton, Julian 2016-01-01 Peer review feedback, developed to assist students with increasing the quality of group reports and developing peer review skills, was added to a master's level Climate Change Policy and Planning unit. A pre- and post-survey was conducted to determine whether students found the process a valuable learning opportunity: 87% of students responding to… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H42B..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H42B..03S">The role of land-climate interactions for the regional amplification of temperature extremes in climate projections</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Seneviratne, S. I.; Vogel, M.; Zscheischler, J.; Schwingshackl, C.; Davin, E.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hauser, M.; Hirsch, A.; Hirschi, M.; Humphrey, V.; Thiery, W. 2017-12-01 Regional hot extremes are projected to increase more strongly than the global mean temperature, with substantially larger changes than 2°C even if global warming is limited to this level (Seneviratne et al. 2016). This presentation will highlight the processes underlying this behavior, which is strongly related to land-climate feedbacks (Vogel et al. 2017). The identified feedbacks are also affecting the occurrence probability of compound drought and heat events (Zscheischler and Seneviratne 2017), with high relevance for impacts on forest fire and agriculture production. Moreover, the responsible land processes strongly contribute to the inter-model spread in the projections, and can thus be used to derive observations-based constraints to reduce the uncertainty of projected changes in climate extremes. Finally, we will also discuss the role of soil moisture effects on carbon uptake and their relevance for projections, as well as the role of land use changes in affecting the identified feedbacks and projected changes in climate extremes. References: Seneviratne, S.I., M. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R.L. Wilby, 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., R. Orth, F. Cheruy, S. Hagemann, R. Lorenz, B.J.J.M. Hurk, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519, doi:10.1002/2016GL071235. Zscheischler, J., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2017: Dependence of drivers affects risks associated with compound events. Science Advances, 3(6), doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700263 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JHyd..301...14C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005JHyd..301...14C">Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J. 2005-01-01 A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15.1721M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018BGeo...15.1721M">Carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Matear, Richard J.; Lenton, Andrew 2018-03-01 Carbon-climate feedbacks have the potential to significantly impact the future climate by altering atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Zaehle et al. 2010). By modifying the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, the carbon-climate feedbacks will also influence the future ocean acidification trajectory. Here, we use the CO2 emissions scenarios from four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) with an Earth system model to project the future trajectories of ocean acidification with the inclusion of carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that simulated carbon-climate feedbacks can significantly impact the onset of undersaturated aragonite conditions in the Southern and Arctic oceans, the suitable habitat for tropical coral and the deepwater saturation states. Under the high-emissions scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP6), the carbon-climate feedbacks advance the onset of surface water under saturation and the decline in suitable coral reef habitat by a decade or more. The impacts of the carbon-climate feedbacks are most significant for the medium- (RCP4.5) and low-emissions (RCP2.6) scenarios. For the RCP4.5 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks nearly double the area of surface water undersaturated with respect to aragonite and reduce by 50 % the surface water suitable for coral reefs. For the RCP2.6 scenario, by 2100 the carbon-climate feedbacks reduce the area suitable for coral reefs by 40 % and increase the area of undersaturated surface water by 20 %. The sensitivity of ocean acidification to the carbon-climate feedbacks in the low to medium emission scenarios is important because recent CO2 emission reduction commitments are trying to transition emissions to such a scenario. Our study highlights the need to better characterise the carbon-climate feedbacks and ensure we do not underestimate the projected ocean acidification. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438281','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438281">Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa 2015-11-13 Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that their relative strength differs from one climate to the other prevents a direct comparison of past and future climate sensitivity. The land-surface feedback also shows large disparities among models even though they all produce positive sea-ice and snow feedbacks. Models have very different sensitivities when considering the vegetation feedback. This feedback has a regional pattern that differs significantly between models and depends on their level of complexity and model biases. Analyses of the MH climate in two versions of the IPSL model provide further indication on the possibilities to assess the role of model biases and model physics on simulated climate changes using past climates for which observations can be used to assess the model results. © 2015 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1311771','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1311771">Final Technical Report: The effects of climate, forest age, and disturbance history on carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux sites across gradients in Pacific Northwest forests</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Law, Beverly E. Investigate the effects of disturbance and climate variables on processes controlling carbon and water processes at AmeriFlux cluster sites in semi-arid and mesic forests in Oregon. The observations were made at three existing and productive AmeriFlux research sites that represent climate and disturbance gradients as a natural experiment of the influence of climatic and hydrologic variability on carbon sequestration and resulting atmospheric CO 2 feedback that includes anomalies during the warm/ dry phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC12A..01N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC12A..01N">A review of our understanding of the role played in the climate system by land surface processes (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nicholson, S. E. 2013-12-01 The paper provides an historical review of research on the impact of the land surface on climate. It commences will the seminal work of Jule Charney on albedo as a potential cause of drought and follows the trail of follow-up studies on the question of desertification and its role in climate. With the exception of a very early paper by Namias, early work was limited mainly to modeling efforts. At the same time, several observational studies provided evidence that land surface feedbacks could enhance and prolong drought, especially in the African Sahel. Later work emphasized the role of soil moisture rather than albedo. Several important field studies also examined the role of the land surface. Examples include FIFE, HAPEX-Sahel and BOREAS. In recent years some major changes in the concept have occurred. There is now substantial observational evidence of an impact at the mesoscale. The role of land surface feedback on climate has become mainstream. Finally, a new subdiscipline has emerged that emphasizes feedbacks between the water cycle, vegetation and climate, namely ecohydrology. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140009182','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140009182">Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20140009182'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140009182_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140009182_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140009182_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140009182_hide"> 2014-01-01 Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2×CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.5062S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.5062S">Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Under Negative Emissions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry 2018-05-01 Negative emissions will most likely be needed to achieve ambitious climate targets, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°. Here we analyze the ocean carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback in an Earth system model under an idealized strong CO2 peak and decline scenario. We find that the ocean carbon-climate feedback is not reversible by means of negative emissions on decadal to centennial timescales. When preindustrial surface climate is restored, the oceans, due to the carbon-climate feedback, still contain about 110 Pg less carbon compared to a simulation without climate change. This result is unsurprising but highlights an issue with a widely used carbon cycle feedback metric. We show that this metric can be greatly improved by using ocean potential temperature as a proxy for climate change. The nonlinearity (nonadditivity) of climate and CO2-driven feedbacks continues to grow after the atmospheric CO2 peak. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC22A..04B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC22A..04B">Land-Atmosphere Interactions in Cold Environments (LATICE): The role of Atmosphere - Biosphere - Cryosphere - Hydrosphere interactions in a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Burkhart, J. F.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stordal, F.; Berntsen, T.; Westermann, S.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Etzelmuller, B.; Hagen, J. O.; Schuler, T.; Hamran, S. E.; Lande, T. S.; Bryn, A. 2015-12-01 Climate change is impacting the high latitudes more rapidly and significantly than any other region of the Earth because of feedback processes between the atmosphere and the underlying surface. A warmer climate has already led to thawing of permafrost, reducing snow cover and a longer growing season; changes, which in turn influence the atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Still, many studies rely on one-way coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface, thereby neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. The observation, understanding and prediction of such processes from local to regional and global scales, represent a major scientific challenge that requires multidisciplinary scientific effort. The successful integration of earth observations (remote and in-situ data) and model development requires a harmonized research effort between earth system scientists, modelers and the developers of technologies and sensors. LATICE, which is recognized as a priority research area by the Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Oslo, aims to advance the knowledge base concerning land atmosphere interactions and their role in controlling climate variability and climate change at high northern latitudes. The consortium consists of an interdisciplinary team of experts from the atmospheric and terrestrial (hydrosphere, cryosphere and biosphere) research groups, together with key expertise on earth observations and novel sensor technologies. LATICE addresses critical knowledge gaps in the current climate assessment capacity through: Improving parameterizations of processes in earth system models controlling the interactions and feedbacks between the land (snow, ice, permafrost, soil and vegetation) and the atmosphere at high latitudes, including the boreal, alpine and artic zone. Assessing the influence of climate and land cover changes on water and energy fluxes. Integrating remote earth observations with in-situ data and suitable models to allow studies of finer-scale processes governing land-atmosphere interactions. Addressing observational challenges through the development of novel observational products and networks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=264996','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=264996">Plant-soil feedbacks and the reversal of desertification with climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a> Our objective was to provide a conceptual framework for perennial grass recovery in a series of wet years, which includes both plant-soil feedbacks that increase available water to grasses and effects of precipitation on a sequence of recovery-related processes. We tested hypotheses based on this fr... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818313S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1818313S">On the Representation of Cloud Phase in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Storelvmo, Trude; Sagoo, Navjit; Tan, Ivy 2016-04-01 Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2747S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2747S">Multiple greenhouse gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stocker, Benjamin; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri, Xu-Ri; Prentice, Colin 2013-04-01 Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2, CH4, and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere. The sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since preindustrial times and leads to multiple feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the climate system. The strength of these feedbacks is determined by (i) the sensitivity of terrestrial GHG emissions to climate and CO2 and (ii) the greenhouse warming potential of the respective gas. Here, we quantify feedbacks from CO2, CH4, N2O, and land surface albedo in a consistent and comprehensive framework based on a large set of simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. The modeled sensitivities of CH4 and N2O emissions are tested, demonstrating that independent data for non-land (anthropogenic, oceanic, etc.) GHG emissions, combined with simulated emissions from natural and agricultural land reproduces historical atmospheric budgets within their uncertainties. 21st-century scenarios for climate, land use change and reactive nitrogen inputs (Nr) are applied to investigate future GHG emissions. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O emissions increase from 9.0 by today to 9.8-11.1 (RCP 2.6) and 14.2-17.0 TgN2O-N/yr by 2100 (RCP 8.5). Without anthropogenic Nr inputs, the amplification is reduced by 24-32%. Soil CH4 emissions increase from 221 at present to 228-245 in RCP 2.6 and to 303-343 TgCH4/yr in RCP 8.5, and the land becomes a net source of C by 2100 AD. Feedbacks from land imply an additional warming of 1.3-1.5°C by 2300 in RCP 8.5, 0.4-0.5°C of which are due to N2O and CH4. The combined effect of multiple GHGs and albedo represents an increasingly positive total feedback to anthropogenic climate change with positive individual feedbacks from CH4, N2O, and albedo outweighing the diminishing negative feedback from CO2 fertilisation of terrestrial C storage. This positive feedback from terrestrial biogeochemistry amplifies the traditionally defined physical equilibrium climate sensitivity by 23-28%, Strong mitigation, reducing Nr inputs and preserving natural vegetation limits the amplification of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier of anthropogenic climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011847','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140011847">Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Shindell, Drew T. 2014-01-01 Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28894099','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28894099">Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska 2017-09-11 The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_2");'>2</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li class="active">4</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_5" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="81"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017BGeo...14.3051B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017BGeo...14.3051B">Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Burke, Eleanor J.; Ekici, Altug; Huang, Ye; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Huntingford, Chris; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Krinner, Gerhard 2017-06-01 The land surface models JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator, two versions) and ORCHIDEE-MICT (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems), each with a revised representation of permafrost carbon, were coupled to the Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies (IMOGEN) intermediate-complexity climate and ocean carbon uptake model. IMOGEN calculates atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and local monthly surface climate for a given emission scenario with the land-atmosphere CO2 flux exchange from either JULES or ORCHIDEE-MICT. These simulations include feedbacks associated with permafrost carbon changes in a warming world. Both IMOGEN-JULES and IMOGEN-ORCHIDEE-MICT were forced by historical and three alternative future-CO2-emission scenarios. Those simulations were performed for different climate sensitivities and regional climate change patterns based on 22 different Earth system models (ESMs) used for CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), allowing us to explore climate uncertainties in the context of permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks. Three future emission scenarios consistent with three representative concentration pathways were used: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Paired simulations with and without frozen carbon processes were required to quantify the impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on climate change. The additional warming from the permafrost carbon feedback is between 0.2 and 12 % of the change in the global mean temperature (ΔT) by the year 2100 and 0.5 and 17 % of ΔT by 2300, with these ranges reflecting differences in land surface models, climate models and emissions pathway. As a percentage of ΔT, the permafrost carbon feedback has a greater impact on the low-emissions scenario (RCP2.6) than on the higher-emissions scenarios, suggesting that permafrost carbon should be taken into account when evaluating scenarios of heavy mitigation and stabilization. Structural differences between the land surface models (particularly the representation of the soil carbon decomposition) are found to be a larger source of uncertainties than differences in the climate response. Inertia in the permafrost carbon system means that the permafrost carbon response depends on the temporal trajectory of warming as well as the absolute amount of warming. We propose a new policy-relevant metric - the frozen carbon residence time (FCRt) in years - that can be derived from these complex land surface models and used to quantify the permafrost carbon response given any pathway of global temperature change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035148','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70035148">Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn 2011-01-01 The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B24D..04B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B24D..04B">Terrestrial Feedbacks Incorporated in Global Vegetation Models through Observed Trait-Environment Responses</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bodegom, P. V. 2015-12-01 Most global vegetation models used to evaluate climate change impacts rely on plant functional types to describe vegetation responses to environmental stresses. In a traditional set-up in which vegetation characteristics are considered constant within a vegetation type, the possibility to implement and infer feedback mechanisms are limited as feedback mechanisms will likely involve a changing expression of community trait values. Based on community assembly concepts, we implemented functional trait-environment relationships into a global dynamic vegetation model to quantitatively assess this feature. For the current climate, a different global vegetation distribution was calculated with and without the inclusion of trait variation, emphasizing the importance of feedbacks -in interaction with competitive processes- for the prevailing global patterns. These trait-environmental responses do, however, not necessarily imply adaptive responses of vegetation to changing conditions and may locally lead to a faster turnover in vegetation upon climate change. Indeed, when running climate projections, simulations with trait variation did not yield a more stable or resilient vegetation than those without. Through the different feedback expressions, global and regional carbon and water fluxes were -however- strongly altered. At a global scale, model projections suggest an increased productivity and hence an increased carbon sink in the next decades to come, when including trait variation. However, by the end of the century, a reduced carbon sink is projected. This effect is due to a downregulation of photosynthesis rates, particularly in the tropical regions, even when accounting for CO2-fertilization effects. Altogether, the various global model simulations suggest the critical importance of including vegetation functional responses to changing environmental conditions to grasp terrestrial feedback mechanisms at global scales in the light of climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3169129','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3169129">Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles 2011-01-01 Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090026582&hterms=imbalance&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dimbalance','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090026582&hterms=imbalance&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dimbalance">Monitoring Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Energy Imbalance for Climate Prediction</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lin, Bing; Chambers, Lin H.; Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.; Minnis, Patrick 2009-01-01 Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the prediction accuracy of the Earth s future climate with an increased CO2 atmosphere. One potential to reduce the feedback uncertainties using satellite observations of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative energy imbalance is explored. Instead of solving the initial condition problem in previous energy balance analysis, current study focuses on the boundary condition problem with further considerations on climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport, which is more applicable for the climate. Along with surface temperature measurements of the present climate, the climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance. Comparing to the feedback factor of 3.3 W/sq m/K of the neutral climate system, the estimated feedback factor for the current climate system ranges from -1.3 to -1.0 W/sq m/K with an uncertainty of +/-0.26 W/sq m/K. That is, a positive climate feedback is found because of the measured TOA net radiative heating (0.85 W/sq m) to the climate system. The uncertainty is caused by the uncertainties in the climate memory length. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70 to approx. 120 years), implying that the climate is not in an equilibrium state under the increasing CO2 forcing in the last century. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B31K..01Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B31K..01Z">Metagenomics-Enabled Understanding of Soil Microbial Feedbacks to Climate Warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhou, J.; Wu, L.; Zhili, H.; Kostas, K.; Luo, Y.; Schuur, E. A. G.; Cole, J. R.; Tiedje, J. M. 2014-12-01 Understanding the response of biological communities to climate warming is a central issue in ecology and global change biology, but it is poorly understood microbial communities. To advance system-level predictive understanding of the feedbacks of belowground microbial communities to multiple climate change factors and their impacts on soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling processes, we have used integrated metagenomic technologies (e.g., target gene and shotgun metagenome sequencing, GeoChip, and isotope) to analyze soil microbial communities from experimental warming sites in Alaska (AK) and Oklahoma (OK), and long-term laboratory incubation. Rapid feedbacks of microbial communities to warming were observed in the AK site. Consistent with the changes in soil temperature, moisture and ecosystem respiration, microbial functional community structure was shifted after only 1.5-year warming, indicating rapid responses and high sensitivity of this permafrost ecosystem to climate warming. Also, warming stimulated not only functional genes involved in aerobic respiration of both labile and recalcitrant C, contributing to an observed 24% increase in 2010 growing season and 56% increase of decomposition of a standard substrate, but also functional genes for anaerobic processes (e.g., denitrification, sulfate reduction, methanogenesis). Further comparisons by shotgun sequencing showed significant differences of microbial community structure between AK and OK sites. The OK site was enriched in genes annotated for cellulose degradation, CO2 production, denitrification, sporulation, heat shock response, and cellular surface structures (e.g., trans-membrane transporters for glucosides), while the AK warmed plots were enriched in metabolic pathways related to labile C decomposition. Together, our results demonstrate the vulnerability of permafrost ecosystem C to climate warming and the importance of microbial feedbacks in mediating such vulnerability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010BGeo....7..121A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010BGeo....7..121A">From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Bondeau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Foster, P.; Gedney, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prentice, I. C.; Sanderson, M.; Thonicke, K.; Wania, R.; Zaehle, S. 2010-01-01 Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009BGD.....6.7717A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009BGD.....6.7717A">From biota to chemistry and climate: towards a comprehensive description of trace gas exchange between the biosphere and atmosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Arneth, A.; Sitch, S.; Bondeau, A.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Foster, P.; Gedney, N.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Prentice, I. C.; Sanderson, M.; Thonicke, K.; Wania, R.; Zaehle, S. 2009-07-01 Exchange of non-CO2 trace gases between the land surface and the atmosphere plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and climate. Recent studies have highlighted its importance for interpretation of glacial-interglacial ice-core records, the simulation of the pre-industrial and present atmosphere, and the potential for large climate-chemistry and climate-aerosol feedbacks in the coming century. However, spatial and temporal variations in trace gas emissions and the magnitude of future feedbacks are a major source of uncertainty in atmospheric chemistry, air quality and climate science. To reduce such uncertainties Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are currently being expanded to mechanistically represent processes relevant to non-CO2 trace gas exchange between land biota and the atmosphere. In this paper we present a review of important non-CO2 trace gas emissions, the state-of-the-art in DGVM modelling of processes regulating these emissions, identify key uncertainties for global scale model applications, and discuss a methodology for model integration and evaluation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940030907','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940030907">Venus climate stability and volcanic resurfacing rates</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bullock, M. A.; Grinspoon, D. H.; Pollack, J. B. 1994-01-01 The climate of Venus is to a large degree controlled by the radiative properties of its massive atmosphere. In addition, outgassing due to volcanic activity, exospheric escape processes, and surface/atmosphere interactions may all be important in moderating the abundances of atmospheric CO2 and other volatiles. We have developed an evolutionary climate model for Venus using a systems approach that emphasizes feedbacks between elements in the climate system. Modules for atmospheric radiative transfer, surface/atmosphere interactions, tropospheric chemistry, and exospheric escape processes have so far been developed. Climate feedback loops result from interconnections between modules, in the form of the environmental parameters pressure, temperature, and atmospheric mixing ratios. The radiative transfer module has been implemented by using Rosseland mean opacities in a one dimensional grey radiative-convective model. The model has been solved for the static (time independent) case to determine climate equilibrium points. The dynamics of the model have also been explored by employing reaction/diffusion kinetics for possible surface atmosphere heterogeneous reactions over geologic timescales. It was found that under current conditions, the model predicts that the climate of Venus is at or near an unstable equilibrium point. The effects of constant rate volcanism and corresponding exsolution of volatiles on the stability of the climate model were also explored. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1213705M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..1213705M">Implications of plant acclimation for future climate-carbon cycle feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mercado, Lina; Kattge, Jens; Cox, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lloyd, Jon; Huntingford, Chris 2010-05-01 The response of land ecosystems to climate change and associated feedbacks are a key uncertainty in future climate prediction (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). However global models generally do not account for the acclimation of plant physiological processes to increased temperatures. Here we conduct a first global sensitivity study whereby we modify the Joint UK land Environment Simulator (JULES) to account for temperature acclimation of two main photosynthetic parameters, Vcmax and Jmax (Kattge and Knorr 2007) and plant respiration (Atkin and Tjoelker 2003). The model is then applied over the 21st Century within the IMOGEN framework (Huntingford et al. 2004). Model simulations will provide new and improved projections of biogeochemical cycling, forest resilience, and thus more accurate projections of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and the future evolution of the Earth System. Friedlingstein P, Cox PM, Betts R et al. (2006) Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis, results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate, 19, 3337-3353. Kattge J and Knorr W (2007): Temperature acclimation in a biochemical model of photosynthesis: a reanalysis of data from 36 species. Plant, Cell and Environment 30, 1176-1190 Atkin O.K and Tjoelker, M. G. (2003): Thermal acclimation and the dynamic response of plant respiration to temperature. Trends in Plant Science 8 (7), 343-351 Huntingford C, et al. (2004) Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 78, 177-185. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51A0002J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A51A0002J">Process-oriented Observational Metrics for CMIP6 Climate Model Assessments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jiang, J. H.; Su, H. 2016-12-01 Observational metrics based on satellite observations have been developed and effectively applied during post-CMIP5 model evaluation and improvement projects. As new physics and parameterizations continue to be included in models for the upcoming CMIP6, it is important to continue objective comparisons between observations and model results. This talk will summarize the process-oriented observational metrics and methodologies for constraining climate models with A-Train satellite observations and support CMIP6 model assessments. We target parameters and processes related to atmospheric clouds and water vapor, which are critically important for Earth's radiative budget, climate feedbacks, and water and energy cycles, and thus reduce uncertainties in climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A33J0323W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A33J0323W">Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L. 2015-12-01 Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70168801','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70168801">The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S. 2010-01-01 In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/418441','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/418441">The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hoffert, M.I. 1996-10-01 This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412484C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017GeoRL..4412484C">Simulated Effect of Carbon Cycle Feedback on Climate Response to Solar Geoengineering</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Cao, Long; Jiang, Jiu 2017-12-01 Most modeling studies investigate climate effects of solar geoengineering under prescribed atmospheric CO2, thereby neglecting potential climate feedbacks from the carbon cycle. Here we use an Earth system model to investigate interactive feedbacks between solar geoengineering, global carbon cycle, and climate change. We design idealized sunshade geoengineering simulations to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C above preindustrial under a CO2 emission scenario with emission mitigation starting from middle of century. By year 2100, solar geoengineering reduces the burden of atmospheric CO2 by 47 PgC with enhanced carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere. As a result of reduced atmospheric CO2, consideration of the carbon cycle feedback reduces required insolation reduction in 2100 from 2.0 to 1.7 W m-2. With higher climate sensitivity the effect from carbon cycle feedback becomes more important. Our study demonstrates the importance of carbon cycle feedback in climate response to solar geoengineering. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1271879-effects-stratospheric-ozone-depletion-solar-uv-radiation-climate-change-biogeochemical-cycling-interactions-feedbacks','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1271879-effects-stratospheric-ozone-depletion-solar-uv-radiation-climate-change-biogeochemical-cycling-interactions-feedbacks">Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G.; ... 2014-11-07 Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A12C..01S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A12C..01S">On the Representation of Ice Nucleation in Global Climate Models, and its Importance for Simulations of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Storelvmo, T. 2015-12-01 Substantial improvements have been made to the cloud microphysical schemes used in the latest generation of global climate models (GCMs), however, an outstanding weakness of these schemes lies in the arbitrariness of their tuning parameters. Despite the growing effort in improving the cloud microphysical schemes in GCMs, most of this effort has not focused on improving the ability of GCMs to accurately simulate phase partitioning in mixed-phase clouds. Getting the relative proportion of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds right in GCMs is critical for the representation of cloud radiative forcings and cloud-climate feedbacks. Here, we first present satellite observations of cloud phase obtained by NASA's CALIOP instrument, and report on robust statistical relationships between cloud phase and several aerosols species that have been demonstrated to act as ice nuclei (IN) in laboratory studies. We then report on results from model intercomparison projects that reveal that GCMs generally underestimate the amount of supercooled liquid in clouds. For a selected GCM (NCAR 's CAM5), we thereafter show that the underestimate can be attributed to two main factors: i) the presence of IN in the mixed-phase temperature range, and ii) the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process, which converts liquid to ice once ice crystals have formed. Finally, we show that adjusting these two processes such that the GCM's cloud phase is in agreement with the observed has a substantial impact on the simulated radiative forcing due to IN perturbations, as well as on the cloud-climate feedbacks and ultimately climate sensitivity simulated by the GCM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25837328','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25837328">Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S 2016-01-01 Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework and funding provides a collaborative model for state climate and health adaptation planning. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMGC22A..02T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFMGC22A..02T">Asymmetries in Climate Change Feedbacks: Why the Future may be Hotter Than you Think</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Torn, M. S.; Harte, J. 2006-12-01 Feedbacks in the climate system are major sources of uncertainty, and climate predictions do not yet include one key set of feedbacks, namely biospheric greenhouse gas (GhG) feedbacks. Historical evidence shows that atmospheric GhG concentrations increase during periods of warming, implying a positive feedback to future climate change. We quantify this feedback for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by combining the mathematics of feedback with both empirical ice-core information and general circulation model climate sensitivity. We find that a warming of 1.7-5.8°C predicted for the year 2100 is amplified to a warming commitment of 1.9-7.7°C, with the range deriving from different GCM simulations and paleo temperature records. Thus, anthropogenic emissions result in higher final GhG concentrations, and therefore more warming, than would be predicted in the absence of this feedback. Uncertainty in climate change predictions have been used as a rationale for inaction against the threat of global warming, based on a prevailing view that the uncertainties are symmetric, giving equal support to climate "optimists" (who think it will be a small problem) and "pessimists," (it will be a big problem). Our results show that even a symmetrical uncertainty in any component of feedback, whether positive or negative, produces an asymmetrical distribution of expected temperatures skewed towards higher temperature. For both reasons, the omission of key positive feedbacks and asymmetrical uncertainty from feedbacks, it is likely that the future will be hotter than we think, which implies more severe climate change impacts. Thus, these results suggest that a conservative policy approach would employ lower emission targets and tighter stabilization time horizons than would otherwise be required. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4526229','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4526229">Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> 2015-01-01 How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. PMID:26244662 </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_3");'>3</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li class="active">5</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_6" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="101"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26244662','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26244662">Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jiménez-Munt, Ivone 2015-01-01 How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4676934','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4676934">Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob 2015-01-01 Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks. PMID:25752680 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25752680','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25752680">Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Thonicke, Kirsten; Frank, David; Mahecha, Miguel D; Smith, Pete; van der Velde, Marijn; Vicca, Sara; Babst, Flurin; Beer, Christian; Buchmann, Nina; Canadell, Josep G; Ciais, Philippe; Cramer, Wolfgang; Ibrom, Andreas; Miglietta, Franco; Poulter, Ben; Rammig, Anja; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Walz, Ariane; Wattenbach, Martin; Zavala, Miguel A; Zscheischler, Jakob 2015-08-01 Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31B1126E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31B1126E">Uncertainty and the Social Cost of Methane Using Bayesian Constrained Climate Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Errickson, F. C.; Anthoff, D.; Keller, K. 2016-12-01 Social cost estimates of greenhouse gases are important for the design of sound climate policies and are also plagued by uncertainty. One major source of uncertainty stems from the simplified representation of the climate system used in the integrated assessment models that provide these social cost estimates. We explore how uncertainty over the social cost of methane varies with the way physical processes and feedbacks in the methane cycle are modeled by (i) coupling three different methane models to a simple climate model, (ii) using MCMC to perform a Bayesian calibration of the three coupled climate models that simulates direct sampling from the joint posterior probability density function (pdf) of model parameters, and (iii) producing probabilistic climate projections that are then used to calculate the Social Cost of Methane (SCM) with the DICE and FUND integrated assessment models. We find that including a temperature feedback in the methane cycle acts as an additional constraint during the calibration process and results in a correlation between the tropospheric lifetime of methane and several climate model parameters. This correlation is not seen in the models lacking this feedback. Several of the estimated marginal pdfs of the model parameters also exhibit different distributional shapes and expected values depending on the methane model used. As a result, probabilistic projections of the climate system out to the year 2300 exhibit different levels of uncertainty and magnitudes of warming for each of the three models under an RCP8.5 scenario. We find these differences in climate projections result in differences in the distributions and expected values for our estimates of the SCM. We also examine uncertainty about the SCM by performing a Monte Carlo analysis using a distribution for the climate sensitivity while holding all other climate model parameters constant. Our SCM estimates using the Bayesian calibration are lower and exhibit less uncertainty about extremely high values in the right tail of the distribution compared to the Monte Carlo approach. This finding has important climate policy implications and suggests previous work that accounts for climate model uncertainty by only varying the climate sensitivity parameter may overestimate the SCM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11j5003E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11j5003E">Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Euskirchen, E. S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, A. L.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M. A.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, T. S. 2016-10-01 Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m-2 decade-1 regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m-2 decade-1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (-0.2 to -0.3 W m-2 decade-1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m-2 decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m-2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC23F..04C">Variance decomposition shows the importance of human-climate feedbacks in the Earth system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E. 2017-12-01 The human and Earth systems are intricately linked: climate influences agricultural production, renewable energy potential, and water availability, for example, while anthropogenic emissions from industry and land use change alter temperature and precipitation. Such feedbacks have the potential to significantly alter future climate change. Current climate change projections contain significant uncertainties, however, and because Earth System Models do not generally include dynamic human (demography, economy, energy, water, land use) components, little is known about how climate feedbacks contribute to that uncertainty. Here we use variance decomposition of a novel coupled human-earth system model to show that the influence of human-climate feedbacks can be as large as 17% of the total variance in the near term for global mean temperature rise, and 11% in the long term for cropland area. The near-term contribution of energy and land use feedbacks to the climate on global mean temperature rise is as large as that from model internal variability, a factor typically considered in modeling studies. Conversely, the contribution of climate feedbacks to cropland extent, while non-negligible, is less than that from socioeconomics, policy, or model. Previous assessments have largely excluded these feedbacks, with the climate community focusing on uncertainty due to internal variability, scenario, and model and the integrated assessment community focusing on uncertainty due to socioeconomics, technology, policy, and model. Our results set the stage for a new generation of models and hypothesis testing to determine when and how bidirectional feedbacks between human and Earth systems should be considered in future assessments of climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatGe..11...44S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018NatGe..11...44S">Substantial large-scale feedbacks between natural aerosols and climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Scott, C. E.; Arnold, S. R.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V. 2018-01-01 The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol. Natural aerosol sources alter climate, but are also strongly controlled by climate, leading to the potential for natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Here we use a global aerosol model to make an assessment of terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, constrained by observations of aerosol number. We find that warmer-than-average temperatures are associated with higher-than-average number concentrations of large (>100 nm diameter) particles, particularly during the summer. This relationship is well reproduced by the model and is driven by both meteorological variability and variability in natural aerosol from biogenic and landscape fire sources. We find that the calculated extratropical annual mean aerosol radiative effect (both direct and indirect) is negatively related to the observed global temperature anomaly, and is driven by a positive relationship between temperature and the emission of natural aerosol. The extratropical aerosol-climate feedback is estimated to be -0.14 W m-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol, greater than the -0.03 W m-2 K-1 estimated for biogenic secondary organic aerosol. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude to other biogeochemical feedbacks, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.U52A..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.U52A..02S">Formation of a CliC/CLIVAR Northern Oceans Regional Panel to advance the understanding of the role of the Arctic in global climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Solomon, A. 2017-12-01 The Arctic climate is rapidly transitioning into a new regime with lower sea ice extent and increasingly younger and thinner sea ice pack. The emergent properties of this new regime are yet to be determined since altered feedback processes between ice, ocean, and atmosphere will further impact upper ocean heat content, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric and oceanic stratification, the interactions between subsurface/intermediate warm waters and surface cold and fresh layer, cloud cover, ice growth, among other properties. This emergent new climate regime needs to be understood in terms of the two-way feedback between the Arctic and lower-latitudes (both in the ocean and atmosphere), as well as the local coupling between ocean-sea ice-atmosphere. The net result of these feedbacks will determine the magnitude of future Arctic amplification and potential impacts on mid-latitude weather extremes, among other impacts. A new international panel, the CliC/CLIVAR Northern Oceans Regional Panel, has been established to coordinate efforts that will enhance our ability to monitor the coupled system, understand the driving mechanisms of the system change from a coupled process perspective, and predict the evolution of the emerging "New Arctic" climate. This talk will discuss the scientific motivation for this new panel, the near-term objectives, and plans for deliverables. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA51A4048C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMPA51A4048C">Seeing the risks of multiple Arctic amplifying feedbacks.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Carter, P. 2014-12-01 There are several potentially very large sources of Arctic amplifying feedbacks that have been identified. They present a great risk to the future as they could become self and inter-reinforcing with uncontrollable knock-on, or cascading risks. This has been called a domino effect risk by Carlos Duarte. Because of already committed global warming and the millennial duration of global warming, these are highly policy relevant. These Arctic feedback processes are now all operant with emissions of carbon dioxide methane and nitrous oxide detected. The extent of the risks from these feedback sources are not obvious or easy to understand by policy makers and the public. They are recorded in the IPCC AR5 as potential tipping points, as is the irreversibility of permafrost thaw. Some of them are not accounted for in the IPCC AR5 global warming projections because of quantitative uncertainty. UNEP issued a 2012 report (Policy Implications of Thawing Permafrost) advising that by omitting carbon feedback emissions from permafrost, carbon budget calculations by err on the low side. There is the other unassessed issue of a global warming safety limit for preventing uncontrollable increasing Arctic feedback emissions. Along with our paper, we provide illustrations of the Arctic feedback sources and processes from satellite imagery and flow charts that allows for their qualitative consideration. We rely on the IPCC assessments, the 2012 paper Possible role of wetlands permafrost can methane hydrates in the methane cycle under future climate change; a review, by Fiona M. O'Connor et al., and build on the WWF 2009 Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. The potential sources of Arctic feedback processes identified include: Arctic and Far North snow albedo decline, Arctic summer sea ice albedo decline, Greenland summer ice surface melting albedo loss, albedo decline by replacement of Arctic tundra with forest, tundra fires, Boreal forest fires, Boreal forest die-back, warming subarctic peat rich wetlands (methane), thawing permafrost (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide), and Arctic subsea floor methane. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1330803','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1330803">2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen As Earth system models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistry–climate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing uncertainties associated with projections of climate change during the remainder of the 21st century. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/43746','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/43746">Controls on winter ecosystem respiration in temperate and boreal ecosystems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> T. Wang; P. Ciais; S.L. Piao; C. Ottle; P. Brender; F. Maignan; A. Arain; A. Cescatti; D. Gianelle; C. Gough; L Gu; P. Lafleur; T. Laurila; B. Marcolla; H. Margolis; L. Montagnani; E. Moors; N. Saigusa; T. Vesala; G. Wohlfahrt; C. Koven; A. Black; E. Dellwik; A. Don; D. Hollinger; A. Knohl; R. Monson; J. Munger; A. Suyker; A. Varlagin; S. Verma 2011-01-01 Winter CO2 fluxes represent an important component of the annual carbon budget in northern ecosystems. Understanding winter respiration processes and their responses to climate change is also central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks in the future. However, the factors influencing the spatial and temporal... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4783C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.4783C">Erratum: Correction to: On the relative strength of radiative feedbacks under climate variability and change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Colman, Robert; Hanson, Lawson 2018-06-01 Two errors were discovered in the calculation of decadal feedbacks under RCP8.5: (i) cloud short wave (SW) and total feedbacks were miscalculated; and (ii) surface albedo and SW water vapour feedbacks were swapped when calculating regressions with climate change feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k4004R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k4004R">Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ripberger, Joseph T.; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.; Silva, Carol L.; Carlson, Deven E.; Gupta, Kuhika; Carlson, Nina; Dunlap, Riley E. 2017-11-01 In complex systems where humans and nature interact to produce joint outcomes, mitigation, adaptation, and resilience require that humans perceive feedback—signals of health and distress—from natural systems. In many instances, humans readily perceive feedback. In others, feedback is more difficult to perceive, so humans rely on experts, heuristics, biases, and/or identify confirming rationalities that may distort perceptions of feedback. This study explores human perception of feedback from natural systems by testing alternate conceptions about how individuals perceive climate anomalies, a form of feedback from the climate system. Results indicate that individuals generally perceive climate anomalies, especially when the anomalies are relatively extreme and persistent. Moreover, this finding is largely robust to political differences that generate predictable but small biases in feedback perception at extreme ends of the partisan spectrum. The subtlety of these biases bodes well for mitigation, adaptation, and resilience as human systems continue to interact with a changing climate system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=306030&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=306030&Lab=NERL&keyword=erickson&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion, Solar UV Radiation, and Climate Change on Biogeochemical Cycling: Interactions and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B43G2206W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B43G2206W">Built-up resilience to climate change in peatlands</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, H.; Tian, J.; Ho, M.; Flanagan, N. E.; Vilgalys, R.; Richardson, C. J. 2017-12-01 Peatlands have stored about 30% of global soil carbon over millennia. Most studies suggest that climate change effects, like drought and warming, may decrease C sequestration and increase C loss in peatlands, thus resulting in a positive feedback on climate change. However, the long-term feedback between plant-microbe mediated carbon processes and climate change still remains highly uncertain. Here, we conducted a series of field and lab experiments in southern shrub and northern Sphagnum peatlands to document how previously unrecognized mechanisms regulate the buildup of anti-microbial phenolics, which protects stored carbon directly by reducing phenol oxidase activity during short-term drought, and indirectly through a shift from low-phenolics Sphagnum/herbs to high-phenolics shrubs after long-term moderate drought. We further showed a symbiosis of slow-growing decomposers concomitant with a shift of high-phenolic plants, which increased peat resistance to disturbance. Our results indicate that shrub expansion induced by climate change in boreal peatlands may be a long-term self-adaptive mechanism not only increasing carbon sequestration, but also potentially protecting soil carbon. Therefore, peatlands are highly resilient ecosystems in which the symbiotic adaption of both plants and microbes, triggered by persistent climate change, likely can acclimate to the stressors and maintain their carbon sequestration function and processes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192733','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70192733">Consequences of changes in vegetation and snow cover for climate feedbacks in Alaska and northwest Canada</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Bennett, A. P.; Breen, Amy L.; Genet, Helene; Lindgren, Michael A.; Kurkowski, Tom; McGuire, A. David; Rupp, T. Scott 2016-01-01 Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90 year period from 2010 to 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We found that changes in snow cover duration, including both the timing of snowmelt in the spring and snow return in the fall, provided the dominant positive biogeophysical feedback to climate across all LCCs, and was greater for the ECHAM (+3.1 W m−2 decade−1regionally) compared to the CCCMA (+1.3 W m−2 decade−1 regionally) scenario due to an increase in loss of snow cover in the ECHAM scenario. The greatest overall negative feedback to climate from changes in vegetation cover was due to fire in spruce forests in the Northwest Boreal LCC and fire in shrub tundra in the Western LCC (−0.2 to −0.3 W m−2 decade−1). With the larger positive feedbacks associated with reductions in snow cover compared to the smaller negative feedbacks associated with shifts in vegetation, the feedback to climate warming was positive (total feedback of +2.7 W m−2decade regionally in the ECHAM scenario compared to +0.76 W m−2 decade regionally in the CCCMA scenario). Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks to climate, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the manner in which climate change may impact interactions between high-latitude ecosystems and the global climate system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B44D..01C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B44D..01C">Human adaptation responses to a rapidly changing Arctic: A research context for building system resilience</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Chapin, T.; Brinkman, T. J. 2016-12-01 Although human behavior accounts for more uncertainty in future trajectories in climate change than do biophysical processes, most climate-change research fails to include human actions in research design and implementation. This is well-illustrated in the Arctic. At the global scale, arctic processes strongly influence the strength of biophysical feedbacks between global human emissions and the rate of climate warming. However, most human actions in the arctic have little effect on these feedbacks, so research can contribute most effectively to reduction in arctic warming through improved understanding of the strength of arctic-global biophysical feedbacks, as in NASA's ABoVE program, and its effective communication to policy makers and the public. In contrast, at the local to regional scale within the arctic, human actions may influence the ecological and societal consequences of arctic warming, so research benefits from active stakeholder engagement in research design and implementation. Human communities and other stakeholders (government and NGOs) respond heterogeneously to socioeconomic and environmental change, so research that documents the range of historical and current adaptive responses to change provides insights on the resilience (flexibility of future options) of social-ecological processes in the arctic. Alaskan communities have attempted a range of adaptive responses to coastal erosion (e.g., seasonal migration, protection in place, relocation), wildfire (fire suppression to use of fire to manage wildlife habitat or landscape heterogeneity), declining sea ice (e.g., new hunting technology, sea ice observations and predictions), and changes in wildlife and fish availability (e.g., switch to harvest of alternative species, harvest times, or harvest locations). Research that draws on both traditional and western knowledge facilitates adaptation and predictions of the likely societal consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Effective inclusion of these actors in the research process could strongly influence the resilience of arctic social-ecological systems to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20603496','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20603496">Terrestrial gross carbon dioxide uptake: global distribution and covariation with climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Beer, Christian; Reichstein, Markus; Tomelleri, Enrico; Ciais, Philippe; Jung, Martin; Carvalhais, Nuno; Rödenbeck, Christian; Arain, M Altaf; Baldocchi, Dennis; Bonan, Gordon B; Bondeau, Alberte; Cescatti, Alessandro; Lasslop, Gitta; Lindroth, Anders; Lomas, Mark; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Margolis, Hank; Oleson, Keith W; Roupsard, Olivier; Veenendaal, Elmar; Viovy, Nicolas; Williams, Christopher; Woodward, F Ian; Papale, Dario 2010-08-13 Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the largest global CO(2) flux driving several ecosystem functions. We provide an observation-based estimate of this flux at 123 +/- 8 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year(-1)) using eddy covariance flux data and various diagnostic models. Tropical forests and savannahs account for 60%. GPP over 40% of the vegetated land is associated with precipitation. State-of-the-art process-oriented biosphere models used for climate predictions exhibit a large between-model variation of GPP's latitudinal patterns and show higher spatial correlations between GPP and precipitation, suggesting the existence of missing processes or feedback mechanisms which attenuate the vegetation response to climate. Our estimates of spatially distributed GPP and its covariation with climate can help improve coupled climate-carbon cycle process models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP31C1647E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMPP31C1647E">The Astronomical Forcing of Climate Change: Forcings and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Erb, M. P.; Broccoli, A. J.; Clement, A. C. 2010-12-01 Understanding the role that orbital forcing played in driving climate change over the Pleistocene has been a matter of ongoing research. While it is undeniable that variations in Earth’s orbit result in changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation, the specifics of how this forcing leads to the climate changes seen in the paleo record are not fully understood. To research this further, climate simulations have been conducted with the GFDL CM2.1, a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Two simulations represent the extremes of obliquity during the past 600 kyr and four others show key times in the precessional cycle. All non-orbital variables are set to preindustrial levels to isolate the effects of astronomical forcing alone. It is expected that feedbacks should play a large role in dictating climate change, so to investigate this, the so-called “kernel method” is used to calculate the lapse rate, water vapor, albedo, and cloud feedbacks. Preliminary results of these experiments confirm that feedbacks are important in explaining the nature and, in places, even the sign of climate response to orbital forcing. In the case of low obliquity, for instance, a combination of climate feedbacks lead to global cooling in spite of zero global-average top of atmosphere insolation change. Feedbacks will be analyzed in the obliquity and precession experiments so that the role of feedbacks in contributing to climate change may be better understood. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011RvGeo..49.3001R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011RvGeo..49.3001R">Aeolian Processes and the Biosphere</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ravi, Sujith; D'Odorico, Paolo; Breshears, David D.; Field, Jason P.; Goudie, Andrew S.; Huxman, Travis E.; Li, Junran; Okin, Gregory S.; Swap, Robert J.; Thomas, Andrew D.; Van Pelt, Scott; Whicker, Jeffrey J.; Zobeck, Ted M. 2011-08-01 Aeolian processes affect the biosphere in a wide variety of contexts, including landform evolution, biogeochemical cycles, regional climate, human health, and desertification. Collectively, research on aeolian processes and the biosphere is developing rapidly in many diverse and specialized areas, but integration of these recent advances is needed to better address management issues and to set future research priorities. Here we review recent literature on aeolian processes and their interactions with the biosphere, focusing on (1) geography of dust emissions, (2) impacts, interactions, and feedbacks, (3) drivers of dust emissions, and (4) methodological approaches. Geographically, dust emissions are highly spatially variable but also provide connectivity at global scales between sources and effects, with “hot spots” being of particular concern. Recent research reveals that aeolian processes have impacts, interactions, and feedbacks at a variety of scales, including large-scale dust transport and global biogeochemical cycles, climate mediated interactions between atmospheric dust and ecosystems, impacts on human health, impacts on agriculture, and interactions between aeolian processes and dryland vegetation. Aeolian dust emissions are driven largely by, in addition to climate, a combination of soil properties, soil moisture, vegetation and roughness, biological and physical crusts, and disturbances. Aeolian research methods span laboratory and field techniques, modeling, and remote sensing. Together these integrated perspectives on aeolian processes and the biosphere provide insights into management options and aid in identifying research priorities, both of which are increasingly important given that global climate models predict an increase in aridity in many dryland systems of the world. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_4");'>4</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li class="active">6</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_7" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="121"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811540M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1811540M">Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America: Diagnosis of feedbacks between groundwater and land energy fluxes at continental scales.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maxwell, Reed; Condon, Laura 2016-04-01 Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Model results suggest that partitioning of plant transpiration to bare soil evaporation is a function of water table depth and later groundwater flow. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1357404-cloud-feedback-mechanisms-representation-global-climate-models','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1357404-cloud-feedback-mechanisms-representation-global-climate-models">Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D.; ... 2017-05-11 Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357404','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357404">Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Ceppi, Paulo; Brient, Florent; Zelinka, Mark D. Cloud feedback—the change in top-of-atmosphere radiative flux resulting from the cloud response to warming—constitutes by far the largest source of uncertainty in the climate response to CO 2 forcing simulated by global climate models (GCMs). In this paper, we review the main mechanisms for cloud feedbacks, and discuss their representation in climate models and the sources of intermodel spread. Global-mean cloud feedback in GCMs results from three main effects: (1) rising free-tropospheric clouds (a positive longwave effect); (2) decreasing tropical low cloud amount (a positive shortwave [SW] effect); (3) increasing high-latitude low cloud optical depth (a negative SW effect). Thesemore » cloud responses simulated by GCMs are qualitatively supported by theory, high-resolution modeling, and observations. Rising high clouds are consistent with the fixed anvil temperature (FAT) hypothesis, whereby enhanced upper-tropospheric radiative cooling causes anvil cloud tops to remain at a nearly fixed temperature as the atmosphere warms. Tropical low cloud amount decreases are driven by a delicate balance between the effects of vertical turbulent fluxes, radiative cooling, large-scale subsidence, and lower-tropospheric stability on the boundary-layer moisture budget. High-latitude low cloud optical depth increases are dominated by phase changes in mixed-phase clouds. Finally, the causes of intermodel spread in cloud feedback are discussed, focusing particularly on the role of unresolved parameterized processes such as cloud microphysics, turbulence, and convection.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.B42B..01F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.B42B..01F">Fire, Carbon and Climate Change in Boreal Forests</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Flannigan, M. D.; Amiro, B. D.; Logan, K. A. 2005-12-01 Disturbances are the major stand-renewing agents for much of the circumboreal forest. In Canada, fire has received much of the attention in carbon cycle science because it affects about 3 million ha of Canadian forest annually, impacts air quality, and can threaten life, property and infrastructure. Fire affects the carbon balance through three processes. First, carbon and other greenhouse gases are emitted to the atmosphere during the combustion process. We estimate this to average about 27 Tg C/year in Canada over the past 40 years, which is close to 20% of industrial carbon emissions. However, in some years this can exceed 100 Tg C. Efforts are underway to estimate global fire activity and greenhouse gas emissions using observations, remote sensing and modelling. The second process is the decomposition of fire-killed vegetation. This forms a pool of coarse woody debris that can take decades to decompose, or can be quite rapid, depending on the post-fire environment. The third process is succession of vegetation following fire, a dynamic process that involves the interplay among species establishment and competition. Weather and climate affects all of these processes. Estimates of the future environment indicate that much of boreal Canada will experience warmer and drier conditions, although there will be regional differences and transient effects. The projections suggest that we may experience a doubling of area burned over the next century because of anthropogenic climate changes. This may have further implications to the global carbon budget by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. A run-away scenario is unlikely because young successional boreal vegetation often does not burn as readily and would limit the positive feedback cycle. Also, changes to the forest composition following fire increases surface albedo and alters the energy balance; effects that may cause climate cooling. However, the impacts of landscape feedbacks and human intervention limiting future fire are not well known. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH51A1861N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMNH51A1861N">Understanding scale dependency of climatic processes with diarrheal disease</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Colwell, R. R. 2015-12-01 The issue of scales in linking climatic processes with diarrheal diseases is perhaps one of the most challenging aspect to develop any predictive algorithm for outbreaks and to understand impacts of changing climate. Majority of diarrheal diseases have shown to be strongly associated with climate modulated environmental processes where pathogens survive. Using cholera as an example of characteristic diarrheal diseases, this study will provide methodological insights on dominant scale variability in climatic processes that are linked with trigger and transmission of disease. Cholera based epidemiological models use human to human interaction as a main transmission mechanism, however, environmental conditions for creating seasonality in outbreaks is not explicitly modeled. For example, existing models cannot create seasonality, unless some of the model parameters are a-priori chosen to vary seasonally. A systems based feedback approach will be presented to understand role of climatic processes on trigger and transmission disease. In order to investigate effect of changing climate on cholera, a downscaling approach using support vector machine will be used. Our preliminary results using three climate models, ECHAM5, GFDL, and HADCM show that varying modalities in future cholera outbreaks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ThApC..78..157B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004ThApC..78..157B">The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Betts, R. A.; Cox, P. M.; Collins, M.; Harris, P. P.; Huntingford, C.; Jones, C. D. A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA13B..01T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA13B..01T">Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N. 2015-12-01 Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B53J..08L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B53J..08L">Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V. 2017-12-01 Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376324','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376324">The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T. 2016-06-01 The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790012522','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19790012522">Incorporation of surface albedo-temperature feedback in a one-dimensional radiative-connective climate model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wang, W. C.; Stone, P. H. 1979-01-01 The feedback between ice snow albedo and temperature is included in a one dimensional radiative convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current values of the solar constant and cloud characteristics. The ice snow albedo feedback amplifies global climate sensitivity by 33% and 50%, respectively, for assumptions of constant cloud altitude and constant cloud temperature. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H44F..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.H44F..01M">Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E. 2015-12-01 Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=253582','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=253582">Aeolian processes and the bioshpere: Interactions and feedback loops</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a> Aeolian processes affect landform evolution, biogeochemical cycles, regional climate, human health, and desertification. The entrainment, transport and deposition of aeolian sediments are recognized as major drivers in the dynamics of the earth system and there is a growing interest in the scientif... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1560073','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1560073">Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F 2005-01-01 The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest–rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 101–104 km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 103 km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 103 km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation. PMID:16608697 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16608697','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16608697">Coincident scales of forest feedback on climate and conservation in a diversity hot spot.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Webb, Thomas J; Gaston, Kevin J; Hannah, Lee; Ian Woodward, F 2006-03-22 The dynamic relationship between vegetation and climate is now widely acknowledged. Climate influences the distribution of vegetation; and through a number of feedback mechanisms vegetation affects climate. This implies that land-use changes such as deforestation will have climatic consequences. However, the spatial scales at which such feedbacks occur remain largely unknown. Here, we use a large database of precipitation and tree cover records for an area of the biodiversity-rich Atlantic forest region in south eastern Brazil to investigate the forest-rainfall feedback at a range of spatial scales from ca 10(1)-10(4) km2. We show that the strength of the feedback increases up to scales of at least 10(3) km2, with the climate at a particular locality influenced by the pattern of landcover extending over a large area. Thus, smaller forest fragments, even if well protected, may suffer degradation due to the climate responding to land-use change in the surrounding area. Atlantic forest vertebrate taxa also require large areas of forest to support viable populations. Areas of forest of ca 10(3) km2 would be large enough to support such populations at the same time as minimizing the risk of climatic feedbacks resulting from deforestation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1174875.pdf','ERIC'); return false;" href="http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1174875.pdf">Effect of Integrated Feedback on Classroom Climate of Secondary School Teachers</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Patel, Nilesh Kumar 2018-01-01 This study aimed at finding out the effect of Integrated feedback on Classroom climate of secondary school teachers. This research is experimental in nature. Non-equivalent control group design suggested by Stanley and Campbell (1963) was used for the experiment. Integrated feedback was treatment and independent variable, Classroom climate was… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1224739','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1224739">DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M. 2015-11-03 Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1214557','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1214557">Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry 2015-09-15 Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3281W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.3281W">Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick 2013-04-01 Terrestrial ecosystems have been demonstrated to play a significant role within the climate system, amplifying or dampening climate change via biogeophysical and biogeochemical exchange with the atmosphere and vice versa (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004). Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change and studies of vegetation-climate feedback mechanisms on Africa are still limited. Our study is the first application of A coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa. We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feedback to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feedback to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4-23. Smith, B., Prentice, I. C. and Sykes, M. T. 2001. Representation of vegetation dynamics in modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space. Global Ecol. Biogeog. 10, 621-637 Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Wramneby, A. & Rummukainen, M. 2011. A model of the coupled dynamics of climate, vegetation and terrestrial ecosystem biogeochemistry for regional applications. Tellus 63A: 87-106. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B33F..02A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B33F..02A">Interactions of forest disturbance-recovery dynamics with a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Anderson-Teixeira, K. J.; Miller, A. D.; Tepley, A. J.; Bennett, A. C.; Wang, M. 2015-12-01 As the climate changes, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics in forests worldwide are likely to result in significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to the climate system. Climate shapes forest disturbance events including tree mortality and fire, with consequent climate feedbacks. For instance, in forests globally, drought increases tree mortality rates, having a stronger impact on larger trees and resulting in greater feedbacks to climate change than would occur if drought sensitivities were equal across tree size classes. Forest regeneration and associated biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks are also shaped by climate: across the tropics the rate of biomass accumulation is faster in everwet than in seasonally dry climates, and in the Klamath region (N California / S Oregon), post-fire vegetation dynamics and microclimate are shaped by aridity. Forest recovery dynamics will be affected by elevated CO2 and climate change; for instance, models predict that forest regeneration rate, successional dynamics, and climate feedbacks will all be altered under elevated CO2. In combination, climatic impacts on disturbance and recovery can result in dramatic shifts in forest cover on the landscape level. For instance, in fire-prone forested landscapes, forest cover decreases with increasing frequency of high-severity fire and decreasing forest recovery rate, both of which could be altered by climate change, producing rapid loss of forest on the landscape level. Such effects may be amplified by the existence of alternative stable states, which can cause systems to experience non-reversible changes in cover type. Critical transitions in landscape-level forest cover would have significant biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks. Thus, altered disturbance-recovery dynamics under a changing climate may have sudden and dramatic impacts on forest-climate interactions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.2831R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy...49.2831R">Can feedback analysis be used to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy differences?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rieger, Vanessa S.; Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael 2017-10-01 Different strengths and types of radiative forcings cause variations in the climate sensitivities and efficacies. To relate these changes to their physical origin, this study tests whether a feedback analysis is a suitable approach. For this end, we apply the partial radiative perturbation method. Combining the forward and backward calculation turns out to be indispensable to ensure the additivity of feedbacks and to yield a closed forcing-feedback-balance at top of the atmosphere. For a set of CO2-forced simulations, the climate sensitivity changes with increasing forcing. The albedo, cloud and combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback are found to be responsible for the variations in the climate sensitivity. An O3-forced simulation (induced by enhanced NOx and CO surface emissions) causes a smaller efficacy than a CO2-forced simulation with a similar magnitude of forcing. We find that the Planck, albedo and most likely the cloud feedback are responsible for this effect. Reducing the radiative forcing impedes the statistical separability of feedbacks. We additionally discuss formal inconsistencies between the common ways of comparing climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Moreover, methodical recommendations for future work are given. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_5");'>5</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li class="active">7</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_8" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="141"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70018568','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70018568">Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T. 1996-01-01 Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70173800','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70173800">Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Schuur, Edward A.G. 2016-01-01 The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC24A..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC24A..02S">(AC)3: A German Initiative to Study Arctic Amplification—Climate Relevant Atmospheric and Surface Processes and Feedback Mechanisms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Spreen, G.; Wendisch, M.; Brückner, M. 2016-12-01 Within the last 25 years a remarkable increase of the Arctic near-surface air temperature exceeding the global warming by a factor of at least two has been observed. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as Arctic Amplification. The warming results in rather dramatic changes of a variety of climate parameters. For example, the Arctic sea ice has declined significantly. This ice retreat has been well identified by satellite measurements. Over recent decades, significant progress has been made in two main scientific areas: (i) the capabilities of in-situ measurements and remote sensing techniques to observe key physico-chemical atmospheric constituents and surface parameters at high latitudes have advanced impressively, and (ii) the computational skills and power used to model individual feedback mechanisms on small scales have improved notably. It is, therefore, timely to exploit synergistically these new developments to enhance our knowledge of the origins of the observed Arctic climate changes. To achieve this aim a new Transregional Collaborative Research Center (TR 172) was launched in January 2016 called "ArctiC Amplification: Climate Relevant Atmospheric and SurfaCe Processes, and Feedback Mechanisms" with the acronym (AC)3. Observations from instrumentation on satellites, aircraft, tethered balloons, research vessels, and a selected set of ground-based sites will be integrated in dedicated campaigns, as well as being combined with long-term measurements. The field studies will be conducted in different seasons and meteorological conditions, covering a suitably wide range of spatial and temporal scales. They will be performed in an international context and in close collaboration with modelling activities. The latter utilize a hierarchy of process, meso-scale, regional, and global models to bridge the spatio-temporal scales from local individual processes to appropriate climate signals. The models will serve to guide the campaigns, to analyse the measurements and sensitivities, to facilitate the attribution of the origins of observed Arctic climate changes, and to test the ability of the models to reproduce observations. The presentation will give an overview of the scientific rationale, objectives, international links, and the work program of the (AC)³ project. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39568','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39568">Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Xuhui Lee; Michael L. Goulden; David Y. Hollinger; Alan Barr; T. Andrew Black; Gil Bohrer; Rosvel Bracho; Bert Drake; Allen Goldstein; Lianhong Gu; Gabriel Katul; Thomas Kolb; Beverly E. Law; Hank Margolis; Tilden Meyers; Russell Monson; William Munger; Ram Oren; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Andrew D. Richardson; Hans Peter Schmid; Ralf Staebler; Steven Wofsy; Lei Zhao 2011-01-01 Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedoâsea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120009173','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120009173">Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wang, Sheng-Hsiang; Gautam, Ritesh; Lau, William K. M.; Tsay, Si-Chee; Sun, Wen-Yih; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Hsu, Christina; Lin, Neng-Huei 2011-01-01 Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017168','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017168">Climate forcings and feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hansen, James 1993-01-01 Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28458719','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28458719">Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P 2016-02-01 Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11b4013D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ERL....11b4013D">Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P. 2016-02-01 Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1413397','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1413397">International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report, Technical Report DOE/SC-0186</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Kappel-Aleks, Gretchen 2016-11-01 As Earth system models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistry–climate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing uncertainties associated with projections of climate change during the remainder of the 21st century. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1439093-ecohydrologic-processes-soil-thickness-feedbacks-control-limestone-weathering-rates-karst-landscape','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1439093-ecohydrologic-processes-soil-thickness-feedbacks-control-limestone-weathering-rates-karst-landscape">Ecohydrologic processes and soil thickness feedbacks control limestone-weathering rates in a karst landscape</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Dong, Xiaoli; Cohen, Matthew J.; Martin, Jonathan B.; ... 2018-05-18 Here, chemical weathering of bedrock plays an essential role in the formation and evolution of Earth's critical zone. Over geologic time, the negative feedback between temperature and chemical weathering rates contributes to the regulation of Earth climate. The challenge of understanding weathering rates and the resulting evolution of critical zone structures lies in complicated interactions and feedbacks among environmental variables, local ecohydrologic processes, and soil thickness, the relative importance of which remains unresolved. We investigate these interactions using a reactive-transport kinetics model, focusing on a low-relief, wetland-dominated karst landscape (Big Cypress National Preserve, South Florida, USA) as a case study.more » Across a broad range of environmental variables, model simulations highlight primary controls of climate and soil biological respiration, where soil thickness both supplies and limits transport of biologically derived acidity. Consequently, the weathering rate maximum occurs at intermediate soil thickness. The value of the maximum weathering rate and the precise soil thickness at which it occurs depend on several environmental variables, including precipitation regime, soil inundation, vegetation characteristics, and rate of groundwater drainage. Simulations for environmental conditions specific to Big Cypress suggest that wetland depressions in this landscape began to form around beginning of the Holocene with gradual dissolution of limestone bedrock and attendant soil development, highlighting large influence of age-varying soil thickness on weathering rates and consequent landscape development. While climatic variables are often considered most important for chemical weathering, our results indicate that soil thickness and biotic activity are equally important. Weathering rates reflect complex interactions among soil thickness, climate, and local hydrologic and biotic processes, which jointly shape the supply and delivery of chemical reactants, and the resulting trajectories of critical zone and karst landscape development.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1439093-ecohydrologic-processes-soil-thickness-feedbacks-control-limestone-weathering-rates-karst-landscape','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1439093-ecohydrologic-processes-soil-thickness-feedbacks-control-limestone-weathering-rates-karst-landscape">Ecohydrologic processes and soil thickness feedbacks control limestone-weathering rates in a karst landscape</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Dong, Xiaoli; Cohen, Matthew J.; Martin, Jonathan B. Here, chemical weathering of bedrock plays an essential role in the formation and evolution of Earth's critical zone. Over geologic time, the negative feedback between temperature and chemical weathering rates contributes to the regulation of Earth climate. The challenge of understanding weathering rates and the resulting evolution of critical zone structures lies in complicated interactions and feedbacks among environmental variables, local ecohydrologic processes, and soil thickness, the relative importance of which remains unresolved. We investigate these interactions using a reactive-transport kinetics model, focusing on a low-relief, wetland-dominated karst landscape (Big Cypress National Preserve, South Florida, USA) as a case study.more » Across a broad range of environmental variables, model simulations highlight primary controls of climate and soil biological respiration, where soil thickness both supplies and limits transport of biologically derived acidity. Consequently, the weathering rate maximum occurs at intermediate soil thickness. The value of the maximum weathering rate and the precise soil thickness at which it occurs depend on several environmental variables, including precipitation regime, soil inundation, vegetation characteristics, and rate of groundwater drainage. Simulations for environmental conditions specific to Big Cypress suggest that wetland depressions in this landscape began to form around beginning of the Holocene with gradual dissolution of limestone bedrock and attendant soil development, highlighting large influence of age-varying soil thickness on weathering rates and consequent landscape development. While climatic variables are often considered most important for chemical weathering, our results indicate that soil thickness and biotic activity are equally important. Weathering rates reflect complex interactions among soil thickness, climate, and local hydrologic and biotic processes, which jointly shape the supply and delivery of chemical reactants, and the resulting trajectories of critical zone and karst landscape development.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NatCC...2..668J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012NatCC...2..668J">Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N. 2012-09-01 The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031667','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70031667">Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F.S. 2007-01-01 The warming associated with changes in snow cover in northern high-latitude terrestrial regions represents an important energy feedback to the climate system. Here, we simulate snow cover-climate feedbacks (i.e. changes in snow cover on atmospheric heating) across the Pan-arctic over two distinct warming periods during the 20th century, 1910-1940 and 1970-2000. We offer evidence that increases in snow cover-climate feedbacks during 1970-2000 were nearly three times larger than during 1910-1940 because the recent snow-cover change occurred in spring, when radiation load is highest, rather than in autumn. Based on linear regression analysis, we also detected a greater sensitivity of snow cover-climate feedbacks to temperature trends during the more recent time period. Pan-arctic vegetation types differed substantially in snow cover-climate feedbacks. Those with a high seasonal contrast in albedo, such as tundra, showed much larger changes in atmospheric heating than did those with a low seasonal contrast in albedo, such as forests, even if the changes in snow-cover duration were similar across the vegetation types. These changes in energy exchange warrant careful consideration in studies of climate change, particularly with respect to associated shifts in vegetation between forests, grasslands, and tundra. ?? 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160006514&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160006514&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange">Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y. 2016-01-01 Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMED11B0781L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMED11B0781L">Evaluating Programs That Promote Climate and Energy Education-Meeting Teacher Needs for Online Resources</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lynds, S. E.; Buhr, S. M. 2011-12-01 The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) Pathway, is a National Science Digital Library (NSDL) Pathways project that was begun in 2010. The main goal of CLEAN is to generate a reviewed collection of educational resources that are aligned with the Essential Principles of Climate Science (EPCS). Another goal of the project is to support a community that will assist students, teachers, and citizens in climate literacy. A complementary program begun in 2010 is the ICEE (Inspiring Climate Education Excellence) program, which is developing online modules and courses designed around the climate literacy principles for use by teachers and other interested citizens. In these projects, we learn about teacher needs through a variety of evaluation mechanisms. The programs use evaluation to assist in the process of providing easy access to high quality climate and energy learning resources that meet classroom requirements. The internal evaluation of the CLEAN program is multidimensional. At the CLEAN resource review camps, teachers and scientists work together in small groups to assess the value of online resources for use in the classroom. The review camps are evaluated using observation and feedback surveys; the resulting evaluation reports provide information to managers to fine-tune future camps. In this way, a model for effective climate resource development meetings has been refined. Evaluation methods used in ICEE and CLEAN include teacher needs assessment surveys, teacher feedback at professional development opportunities, scientist feedback at resource review workshops, and regular analysis of online usage of resources, forums, and education modules. This paper will review the most successful strategies for evaluating the effectiveness of online climate and energy education resources and their use by educators and the general public. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20701179','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20701179">Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan 2010-05-01 Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission targets. This leads us to a new way of formulating emission targets that include feedback effects, the global impact target. Once the full climate policy feedback mechanisms are accounted for, there are probably only three main routes in climate policy that stand a chance of mitigating global warming: (a) returning carbon to the ground, (b) technological leaps in zero-emission energy technology that make it profitable to leave much carbon in the ground even in Annex II countries and (c) international agreements that make it more profitable to leave carbon in the ground or in forests. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19895974','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19895974">Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard 2009-01-01 The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5313W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009EGUGA..11.5313W">Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M. 2009-04-01 Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20603495','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20603495">Global convergence in the temperature sensitivity of respiration at ecosystem level.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Mahecha, Miguel D; Reichstein, Markus; Carvalhais, Nuno; Lasslop, Gitta; Lange, Holger; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Vargas, Rodrigo; Ammann, Christof; Arain, M Altaf; Cescatti, Alessandro; Janssens, Ivan A; Migliavacca, Mirco; Montagnani, Leonardo; Richardson, Andrew D 2010-08-13 The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) from the land surface is a major flux in the global carbon cycle, antipodal to photosynthetic CO(2) uptake. Understanding the sensitivity of respiratory processes to temperature is central for quantifying the climate-carbon cycle feedback. We approximated the sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystem respiration to air temperature (Q(10)) across 60 FLUXNET sites with the use of a methodology that circumvents confounding effects. Contrary to previous findings, our results suggest that Q(10) is independent of mean annual temperature, does not differ among biomes, and is confined to values around 1.4 +/- 0.1. The strong relation between photosynthesis and respiration, by contrast, is highly variable among sites. The results may partly explain a less pronounced climate-carbon cycle feedback than suggested by current carbon cycle climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357354','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1357354">Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zelinka, Mark D.; Zhou, Chen; Klein, Stephen A. Decomposing cloud feedback into components due to changes in several gross cloud properties provides valuable insights into its physical causes. Here we present a refined decomposition that separately considers changes in free tropospheric and low cloud properties, better connecting feedbacks to individual governing processes and avoiding ambiguities present in a commonly used decomposition. It reveals that three net cloud feedback components are robustly nonzero: positive feedbacks from increasing free tropospheric cloud altitude and decreasing low cloud cover and a negative feedback from increasing low cloud optical depth. Low cloud amount feedback is the dominant contributor to spread in net cloudmore » feedback but its anticorrelation with other components damps overall spread. Furthermore, the ensemble mean free tropospheric cloud altitude feedback is roughly 60% as large as the standard cloud altitude feedback because it avoids aliasing in low cloud reductions. Implications for the “null hypothesis” climate sensitivity from well-understood and robustly simulated feedbacks are discussed.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_6");'>6</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li class="active">8</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_9" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="161"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1357354-insights-from-refined-decomposition-cloud-feedbacks','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1357354-insights-from-refined-decomposition-cloud-feedbacks">Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Zelinka, Mark D.; Zhou, Chen; Klein, Stephen A. 2016-09-05 Decomposing cloud feedback into components due to changes in several gross cloud properties provides valuable insights into its physical causes. Here we present a refined decomposition that separately considers changes in free tropospheric and low cloud properties, better connecting feedbacks to individual governing processes and avoiding ambiguities present in a commonly used decomposition. It reveals that three net cloud feedback components are robustly nonzero: positive feedbacks from increasing free tropospheric cloud altitude and decreasing low cloud cover and a negative feedback from increasing low cloud optical depth. Low cloud amount feedback is the dominant contributor to spread in net cloudmore » feedback but its anticorrelation with other components damps overall spread. Furthermore, the ensemble mean free tropospheric cloud altitude feedback is roughly 60% as large as the standard cloud altitude feedback because it avoids aliasing in low cloud reductions. Implications for the “null hypothesis” climate sensitivity from well-understood and robustly simulated feedbacks are discussed.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC34B..01P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMGC34B..01P">An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pierrehumbert, R. 2010-12-01 The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29440407','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29440407">In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust-climate feedbacks.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice 2018-02-27 Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial-interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust-climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust-climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial-interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust-climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial-interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PNAS..115.2026S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018PNAS..115.2026S">In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust‑climate feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Shaffer, Gary; Lambert, Fabrice 2018-03-01 Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial‑interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust‑climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust‑climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial‑interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust‑climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial‑interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5834668','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5834668">In and out of glacial extremes by way of dust−climate feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Lambert, Fabrice 2018-01-01 Mineral dust aerosols cool Earth directly by scattering incoming solar radiation and indirectly by affecting clouds and biogeochemical cycles. Recent Earth history has featured quasi-100,000-y, glacial−interglacial climate cycles with lower/higher temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations during glacials/interglacials. Global average, glacial maxima dust levels were more than 3 times higher than during interglacials, thereby contributing to glacial cooling. However, the timing, strength, and overall role of dust−climate feedbacks over these cycles remain unclear. Here we use dust deposition data and temperature reconstructions from ice sheet, ocean sediment, and land archives to construct dust−climate relationships. Although absolute dust deposition rates vary greatly among these archives, they all exhibit striking, nonlinear increases toward coldest glacial conditions. From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial−interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system model simulations. The results of these simulations show that dust−climate feedbacks, perhaps set off by orbital forcing, push the system in and out of extreme cold conditions such as glacial maxima. Without these dust effects, glacial temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations would have been much more stable at higher, intermediate glacial levels. The structure of residual anomalies over the glacial−interglacial climate cycles after subtraction of dust effects provides constraints for the strength and timing of other processes governing these cycles. PMID:29440407 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A42C..08S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A42C..08S">Landscape fires dominate terrestrial natural aerosol - climate feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Scott, C.; Arnold, S.; Monks, S. A.; Asmi, A.; Paasonen, P.; Spracklen, D. V. 2017-12-01 The terrestrial biosphere is an important source of natural aerosol including landscape fire emissions and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Atmospheric aerosol alters the Earth's climate by absorbing and scattering radiation (direct radiative effect; DRE) and by perturbing the properties of clouds (aerosol indirect effect; AIE). Natural aerosol sources are strongly controlled by, and can influence, climate; giving rise to potential natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. Earth System Models (ESMs) include a description of some of these natural aerosol-climate feedbacks, predicting substantial changes in natural aerosol over the coming century with associated radiative perturbations. Despite this, the sensitivity of natural aerosols simulated by ESMs to changes in climate or emissions has not been robustly tested against observations. Here we combine long-term observations of aerosol number and a global aerosol microphysics model to assess terrestrial natural aerosol-climate feedbacks. We find a strong positive relationship between the summertime anomaly in observed concentration of particles greater than 100 nm diameter and the anomaly in local air temperature. This relationship is reproduced by the model and driven by variability in dynamics and meteorology, as well as natural sources of aerosol. We use an offline radiative transfer model to determine radiative effects due to changes in two natural aerosol sources: landscape fire and biogenic SOA. We find that interannual variability in the simulated global natural aerosol radiative effect (RE) is negatively related to the global temperature anomaly. The magnitude of global aerosol-climate feedback (sum of DRE and AIE) is estimated to be -0.15 Wm-2 K-1 for landscape fire aerosol and -0.06 Wm-2 K-1 for biogenic SOA. These feedbacks are comparable in magnitude, but opposite in sign to the snow albedo feedback, highlighting the need for natural aerosol feedbacks to be included in climate simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017166','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017166">Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hansen, J. (Editor); Rossow, W. (Editor); Fung, I. (Editor) 1993-01-01 A workshop on Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks was held February 3-4, 1992, at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies to discuss the measurements required to interpret long-term global temperature changes, to critique the proposed contributions of a series of small satellites (Climsat), and to identify needed complementary monitoring. The workshop concluded that long-term (several decades) of continuous monitoring of the major climate forcings and feedbacks is essential for understanding long-term climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000152&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20180000152&hterms=climate+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange">Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N. 2017-01-01 The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014WRR....50.9432V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014WRR....50.9432V">Root zone salinity and sodicity under seasonal rainfall due to feedback of decreasing hydraulic conductivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.; Shah, S. H. H.; Vervoort, R. W. 2014-12-01 Soil sodicity, where the soil cation exchange complex is occupied for a significant fraction by Na+, may lead to vulnerability to soil structure deterioration. With a root zone flow and salt transport model, we modeled the feedback effects of salt concentration (C) and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP) on saturated hydraulic conductivity Ks(C, ESP) for different groundwater depths and climates, using the functional approach of McNeal (1968). We assume that a decrease of Ks is practically irreversible at a time scale of decades. Representing climate with a Poisson rainfall process, the feedback hardly affects salt and sodium accumulation compared with the case that feedback is ignored. However, if salinity decreases, the much more buffered ESP stays at elevated values, while Ks decreases. This situation may develop if rainfall has a seasonal pattern where drought periods with accumulation of salts in the root zone alternate with wet rainfall periods in which salts are leached. Feedback that affects both drainage/leaching and capillary upward flow from groundwater, or only drainage, leads to opposing effects. If both fluxes are affected by sodicity-induced degradation, this leads to reduced salinity (C) and sodicity (ESP), which suggests that the system dynamics and feedback oppose further degradation. Experiences in the field point in the same direction. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20128366','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20128366">Coaching behaviors, motivational climate, and psychosocial outcomes among female adolescent athletes.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Weiss, Maureen R; Amorose, Anthony J; Wilko, Anna Marie 2009-11-01 Based on Harter's (12,13) competence motivation theory, this study examined the relationship of coaches' performance feedback and motivational climate with female athletes' perceived competence, enjoyment, and intrinsic motivation. Female adolescent soccer players (N = 141) completed measures of relevant constructs toward the latter part of their season. Canonical correlation analysis revealed that athletes' perceptions of greater positive and informational feedback given by coaches in response to successful performance attempts, greater emphasis placed on a mastery climate, and less emphasis placed on a performance climate, were significantly related to greater ability perceptions, enjoyment, and intrinsic motivation. Exploratory analyses also showed that the relationship between feedback and the psychosocial outcomes may vary as a function of the perceived motivational climate. Overall, these results suggest that coaching feedback and motivational climate are important contributors to explaining adolescent females' continued motivation to participate in sport. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140010545','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140010545">Impacts of Atmosphere-Ocean Coupling on Southern Hemisphere Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Li, Feng; Newman, Paul; Pawson, Steven 2013-01-01 Climate in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) has undergone significant changes in recent decades. These changes are closely linked to the shift of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) towards its positive polarity, which is driven primarily by Antarctic ozone depletion. There is growing evidence that Antarctic ozone depletion has significant impacts on Southern Ocean circulation change. However, it is poorly understood whether and how ocean feedback might impact the SAM and climate change in the SH atmosphere. This outstanding science question is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model(GEOS-AOCCM).We perform ensemble simulations of the recent past (1960-2010) with and without the interactive ocean. For simulations without the interactive ocean, we use sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations produced by the interactive ocean simulations. The differences between these two ensemble simulations quantify the effects of atmosphere-ocean coupling. We will investigate the impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling on stratospheric processes such as Antarctic ozone depletion and Antarctic polar vortex breakup. We will address whether ocean feedback affects Rossby wave generation in the troposphere and wave propagation into the stratosphere. Another focuson this study is to assess how ocean feedback might affect the tropospheric SAM response to Antarctic ozone depletion </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ERL....13c3003A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ERL....13c3003A">Biological and geophysical feedbacks with fire in the Earth system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Archibald, S.; Lehmann, C. E. R.; Belcher, C. M.; Bond, W. J.; Bradstock, R. A.; Daniau, A.-L.; Dexter, K. G.; Forrestel, E. J.; Greve, M.; He, T.; Higgins, S. I.; Hoffmann, W. A.; Lamont, B. B.; McGlinn, D. J.; Moncrieff, G. R.; Osborne, C. P.; Pausas, J. G.; Price, O.; Ripley, B. S.; Rogers, B. M.; Schwilk, D. W.; Simon, M. F.; Turetsky, M. R.; Van der Werf, G. R.; Zanne, A. E. 2018-03-01 Roughly 3% of the Earth’s land surface burns annually, representing a critical exchange of energy and matter between the land and atmosphere via combustion. Fires range from slow smouldering peat fires, to low-intensity surface fires, to intense crown fires, depending on vegetation structure, fuel moisture, prevailing climate, and weather conditions. While the links between biogeochemistry, climate and fire are widely studied within Earth system science, these relationships are also mediated by fuels—namely plants and their litter—that are the product of evolutionary and ecological processes. Fire is a powerful selective force and, over their evolutionary history, plants have evolved traits that both tolerate and promote fire numerous times and across diverse clades. Here we outline a conceptual framework of how plant traits determine the flammability of ecosystems and interact with climate and weather to influence fire regimes. We explore how these evolutionary and ecological processes scale to impact biogeochemical and Earth system processes. Finally, we outline several research challenges that, when resolved, will improve our understanding of the role of plant evolution in mediating the fire feedbacks driving Earth system processes. Understanding current patterns of fire and vegetation, as well as patterns of fire over geological time, requires research that incorporates evolutionary biology, ecology, biogeography, and the biogeosciences. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPa..10.2135S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014CliPa..10.2135S">Interaction of ice sheets and climate during the past 800 000 years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stap, L. B.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; de Boer, B.; Bintanja, R.; Lourens, L. J. 2014-12-01 During the Cenozoic, land ice and climate interacted on many different timescales. On long timescales, the effect of land ice on global climate and sea level is mainly set by large ice sheets in North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. The climatic forcing of these ice sheets is largely determined by the meridional temperature profile resulting from radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. As a response, the ice sheets cause an increase in albedo and surface elevation, which operates as a feedback in the climate system. To quantify the importance of these climate-land ice processes, a zonally averaged energy balance climate model is coupled to five one-dimensional ice sheet models, representing the major ice sheets. In this study, we focus on the transient simulation of the past 800 000 years, where a high-confidence CO2 record from ice core samples is used as input in combination with Milankovitch radiation changes. We obtain simulations of atmospheric temperature, ice volume and sea level that are in good agreement with recent proxy-data reconstructions. We examine long-term climate-ice-sheet interactions by a comparison of simulations with uncoupled and coupled ice sheets. We show that these interactions amplify global temperature anomalies by up to a factor of 2.6, and that they increase polar amplification by 94%. We demonstrate that, on these long timescales, the ice-albedo feedback has a larger and more global influence on the meridional atmospheric temperature profile than the surface-height-temperature feedback. Furthermore, we assess the influence of CO2 and insolation by performing runs with one or both of these variables held constant. We find that atmospheric temperature is controlled by a complex interaction of CO2 and insolation, and both variables serve as thresholds for northern hemispheric glaciation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JPhy4.139..119B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006JPhy4.139..119B">Forcings and feedbacks by land ecosystem changes on climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Betts, R. A. 2006-12-01 Vegetation change is involved in climate change through both forcing and feedback processes. Emissions of CO{2} from past net deforestation are estimated to have contributed approximately 0.22 0.51 Wm - 2 to the overall 1.46 Wm - 2 radiative forcing by anthropogenic increases in CO{2} up to the year 2000. Deforestation-induced increases in global mean surface albedo are estimated to exert a radiative forcing of 0 to -0.2 Wm - 2, and dust emissions from land use may exert a radiative forcing of between approximately +0.1 and -0.2 Wm - 2. Changes in the fluxes of latent and sensible heat due to tropical deforestation are simulated to have exerted other local warming effects which cannot be quantified in terms of a Wm - 2 radiative forcing, with the potential for remote effects through changes in atmospheric circulation. With tropical deforestation continuing rapidly, radiative forcing by surface albedo change may become less useful as a measure of the forcing of climate change by changes in the physical properties of the land surface. Although net global deforestation is continuing, future scenarios used for climate change prediction suggest that fossil fuel emissions of CO{2} may continue to increase at a greater rate than land use emissions and therefore continue to increase in dominance as the main radiative forcing. The CO{2} rise may be accelerated by up to 66% by feedbacks arising from global soil carbon loss and forest dieback in Amazonia as a consequence of climate change, and Amazon forest dieback may also exert feedbacks through changes in the local water cycle and increases in dust emissions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C33B1193M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C33B1193M">Cloud Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Implications for Feedbacks in the CESM1 Climate Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Morrison, A.; Kay, J. E.; Chepfer, H.; Guzman, R.; Bonazzola, M. 2017-12-01 Clouds have the potential to accelerate or slow the rate of Arctic sea ice loss through their radiative influence on the surface. Cloud feedbacks can therefore play into Arctic warming as clouds respond to changes in sea ice cover. As the Arctic moves toward an ice-free state, understanding how cloud - sea ice relationships change in response to sea ice loss is critical for predicting the future climate trajectory. From satellite observations we know the effect of present-day sea ice cover on clouds, but how will clouds respond to sea ice loss as the Arctic transitions to a seasonally open water state? In this study we use a lidar simulator to first evaluate cloud - sea ice relationships in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) against present-day observations (2006-2015). In the current climate, the cloud response to sea ice is well-represented in CESM1: we see no summer cloud response to changes in sea ice cover, but more fall clouds over open water than over sea ice. Since CESM1 is credible for the current Arctic climate, we next assess if our process-based understanding of Arctic cloud feedbacks related to sea ice loss is relevant for understanding future Arctic clouds. In the future Arctic, summer cloud structure continues to be insensitive to surface conditions. As the Arctic warms in the fall, however, the boundary layer deepens and cloud fraction increases over open ocean during each consecutive decade from 2020 - 2100. This study will also explore seasonal changes in cloud properties such as opacity and liquid water path. Results thus far suggest that a positive fall cloud - sea ice feedback exists in the present-day and future Arctic climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70178689','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70178689">Methane emissions from oceans, coasts, and freshwater habitats: New perspectives and feedbacks on climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Hamdan, Leila J.; Wickland, Kimberly P. 2016-01-01 Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and atmospheric concentrations have risen 2.5 times since the beginning of the Industrial age. While much of this increase is attributed to anthropogenic sources, natural sources, which contribute between 35% and 50% of global methane emissions, are thought to have a role in the atmospheric methane increase, in part due to human influences. Methane emissions from many natural sources are sensitive to climate, and positive feedbacks from climate change and cultural eutrophication may promote increased emissions to the atmosphere. These natural sources include aquatic environments such as wetlands, freshwater lakes, streams and rivers, and estuarine, coastal, and marine systems. Furthermore, there are significant marine sediment stores of methane in the form of clathrates that are vulnerable to mobilization and release to the atmosphere from climate feedbacks, and subsurface thermogenic gas which in exceptional cases may be released following accidents and disasters (North Sea blowout and Deepwater Horizon Spill respectively). Understanding of natural sources, key processes, and controls on emission is continually evolving as new measurement and modeling capabilities develop, and different sources and processes are revealed. This special issue of Limnology and Oceanography gathers together diverse studies on methane production, consumption, and emissions from freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems, and provides a broad view of the current science on methane dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we provide a general overview of aquatic methane sources, their contribution to the global methane budget, and key uncertainties. We then briefly summarize the contributions to and highlights of this special issue. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B54F..04E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B54F..04E">Consequences of Changes in Vegetation and Snow Cover for Climate Feedbacks in Alaska and Northwest Canada</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Euskirchen, E. S.; Breen, A. L.; Bennett, A.; Genet, H.; Lindgren, M.; Kurkowski, T. A.; McGuire, A. D.; Rupp, S. T. 2016-12-01 A continuing challenge in global change studies is to determine how land surface changes may impact atmospheric heating. Changes in vegetation and snow cover may lead to feedbacks to climate through changes in surface albedo and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. In addition to these biogeophysical feedbacks, biogeochemical feedbacks associated with changes in carbon (C) storage in the vegetation and soils may also influence climate. Here, using a transient biogeographic model (ALFRESCO) and an ecosystem model (DOS-TEM), we quantified the biogeophysical feedbacks due to changes in vegetation and snow cover across continuous permafrost to non-permafrost ecosystems in Alaska and northwest Canada. We also computed the changes in carbon storage in this region to provide a general assessment of the direction of the biogeochemical feedback. We considered four ecoregions, or Landscape Conservations Cooperatives (LCCs; including the Arctic, North Pacific, Western Alaska, and Northwest Boreal). We examined the 90-year period from 2010- 2099 using one future emission scenario (A1B), under outputs from two general circulation models (MPI-ECHAM5 and CCCMA-CGCM3.1). We consider a more comprehensive suite of possible feedbacks to climate due to shifts in vegetation than previous studies, including both boreal and tundra fire, an advance of treeline, reduction in forest cover due to drought, and increases in the distribution of shrub tundra. However, changes in snow cover still provided the dominant positive land surface feedback to atmospheric heating. This positive feedback was partially moderated by an increase in area burned in spruce forests and shrub tundra. Overall, increases in C storage in the vegetation and soils across the study region would act as a negative feedback to climate. By exploring these feedbacks, we can reach a more integrated understanding of the vulnerability of this region to changes in climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1427520','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1427520">Can Microbial Ecology and Mycorrhizal Functioning Inform Climate Change Models?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hofmockel, Kirsten; Hobbie, Erik Our funded research focused on soil organic matter dynamics and plant-microbe interactions by examining the role of belowground processes and mechanisms across scales, including decomposition of organic molecules, microbial interactions, and plant-microbe interactions associated with a changing climate. Research foci included mycorrhizal mediated priming of soil carbon turnover, organic N use and depolymerization by free-living microbes and mycorrhizal fungi, and the use of isotopes as additional constraints for improved modeling of belowground processes. This work complemented the DOE’s mandate to understand both the consequences of atmospheric and climatic change for key ecosystems and the feedbacks on C cycling. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/36312','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/36312">Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Edward A.G. Schuur; James Bockheim; Josep G. Canadell; Eugenie Euskirchen; Christopher B. Field; Sergey V. Goryachkin; Stefan Hagemann; Peter Kuhry; Peter M. Lafleur; Hanna Lee; Galina Mazhitova; Frederick E. Nelson; Annette Rinke; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Nikolay Shiklomanov; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Venevsky; Jason G. Vogel; Sergei A. Zimov 2008-01-01 Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55687','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/55687">Hydrology and microtopography control carbon dynamics in wetlands: Implications in partitioning ecosystem respiration in a coastal plain forested wetland</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Guofang Miao; Asko Noormets; Jean-Christophe Domec; Montserrat Fuentes; Carl C. Trettin; Ge Sun; Steve G. McNulty; John S. King 2017-01-01 Wetlands store a disproportionately large fraction of organic carbon relative to their areal coverage, and thus play an important role in global climate mitigation. As destabilization of these stores through land use or en- vironmental change represents a signi fi cant climate feedback, it is important to understand the functional regulation of respiratory processes... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_7");'>7</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li class="active">9</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_10" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="181"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-10/pdf/2011-5455.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2011-03-10/pdf/2011-5455.pdf">76 FR 13207 - Announcement of the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy Planning Feedback Process</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2011-03-10 ... its Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and Minerals... USGS Mission Area: Global Change Virginia Burkett: 318-256-5628, [email protected] . Dave... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-07-23/pdf/2012-17832.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-07-23/pdf/2012-17832.pdf">77 FR 43110 - Announcement of the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy Planning Feedback Process</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2012-07-23 ... of its Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems, Energy and.... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Listed below are contacts for each USGS Mission Area: Global Change... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.3097F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.3097F">The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E. 2018-04-01 Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018GeoRL..45.4438Y">Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry 2018-05-01 Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/tphy20/28/5','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="http://www.tandfonline.com/toc/tphy20/28/5">Alpine treeline of western North America: Linking organism-to-landscape dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Malanson, George P.; Butler, David R.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Walsh, Stephen J; Tomback, Diana F.; Daniels, Lori D.; Resler, Lynn M.; Smith, William K.; Weiss, Daniel J.; Peterson, David L.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Liptzin, Daniel; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Shen, Zehao; Millar, Constance I. 2007-01-01 Although the ecological dynamics of the alpine treeline ecotone are influenced by climate, it is an imperfect indicator of climate change. Mechanistic processes that shape the ecotone—seed rain, seed germination, seedling establishment and subsequent tree growth form, or, conversely tree dieback—depend on microsite patterns. Growth forms affect wind and snow, and so develop positive and negative feedback loops that create these microsites. As a result, complex landscape patterns are generated at multiple spatial scales. Although these mechanistic processes are fundamentally the same for all forest-tundra ecotones across western North America, factors such as prior climate, underlying geology and geomorphology, and genetic constraints of dominant tree species lead to geographic differences in the responses of particular ecotones to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53A0872S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53A0872S">The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M. 2017-12-01 This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt., </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438280','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438280">Insights into low-latitude cloud feedbacks from high-resolution models.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bretherton, Christopher S 2015-11-13 Cloud feedbacks are a leading source of uncertainty in the climate sensitivity simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Low-latitude boundary-layer and cumulus cloud regimes are particularly problematic, because they are sustained by tight interactions between clouds and unresolved turbulent circulations. Turbulence-resolving models better simulate such cloud regimes and support the GCM consensus that they contribute to positive global cloud feedbacks. Large-eddy simulations using sub-100 m grid spacings over small computational domains elucidate marine boundary-layer cloud response to greenhouse warming. Four observationally supported mechanisms contribute: 'thermodynamic' cloudiness reduction from warming of the atmosphere-ocean column, 'radiative' cloudiness reduction from CO2- and H2O-induced increase in atmospheric emissivity aloft, 'stability-induced' cloud increase from increased lower tropospheric stratification, and 'dynamical' cloudiness increase from reduced subsidence. The cloudiness reduction mechanisms typically dominate, giving positive shortwave cloud feedback. Cloud-resolving models with horizontal grid spacings of a few kilometres illuminate how cumulonimbus cloud systems affect climate feedbacks. Limited-area simulations and superparameterized GCMs show upward shift and slight reduction of cloud cover in a warmer climate, implying positive cloud feedbacks. A global cloud-resolving model suggests tropical cirrus increases in a warmer climate, producing positive longwave cloud feedback, but results are sensitive to subgrid turbulence and ice microphysics schemes. © 2015 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33H0358Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33H0358Z">Temperature Dependency of the Correlation between Secondary Organic Aerosol and Monoterpenes Concentrations at a Boreal Forest Site in Finland</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhou, Y.; Zhang, W.; Rinne, J. 2016-12-01 Climate feedbacks represent the large uncertainty in the climate projection partly due to the difficulties to quantify the feedback mechanisms in the biosphere-atmosphere interaction. Recently, a negative climate feedback mechanism whereby higher temperatures and CO2-levels boost continental biomass production, leading to increased biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, tending to cause cooling, has been attached much attention. To quantify the relationship between biogenic organic compounds (BVOCs) and SOA, a five-year data set (2008, 2010-2011,2013-2014) for SOA and monoterpenes concentrations (the dominant fraction of BVOCs) measured at the SMEAR II station in Hyytiälä, Finland, is analyzed. Our results show that there is a moderate linear correlation between SOA and monoterpenes concentration with the correlation coefficient (R) as 0.66. To rule out the influence of anthropogenic aerosols, the dataset is further filtered by selecting the data at the wind direction of cleaner air mass, leading to an improved R as 0.68. As temperature is a critical factor for vegetation growth, BVOC emissions, and condensation rate, the correlation between SOA and monoterpenes concentration at different temperature windows are studied. The result shows a higher R and slope of linear regression as temperature increases. To identify the dominant oxidant responsible for the BVOC-SOA conversion, the correlations between SOA concentration and the monoterpenes oxidation rates by O3 and OH are compared, suggesting more SOA is contributed by O3 oxidation process. Finally, the possible processes and factors such as the atmospheric boundary layer depth, limiting factor in the monoterpenes oxidation process, as well as temperature sensitivity in the condensation process contributing to the temperature dependence of correlation between BVOA and SOA are investigated. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27691380','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27691380">The Humble Leader: Association of Discrepancies in Leader and Follower Ratings of Implementation Leadership With Organizational Climate in Mental Health.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Aarons, Gregory A; Ehrhart, Mark G; Torres, Elisa M; Finn, Natalie K; Beidas, Rinad S 2017-02-01 Discrepancies, or perceptual distance, between leaders' self-ratings and followers' ratings of the leader are common but usually go unrecognized. Research on discrepancies is limited, but there is evidence that discrepancies are associated with organizational context. This study examined the association of leader-follower discrepancies in Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS) ratings of mental health clinic leaders and the association of those discrepancies with organizational climate for involvement and performance feedback. Both involvement and performance feedback are important for evidence-based practice (EBP) implementation in mental health. A total of 593 individuals-supervisors (leaders, N=80) and clinical service providers (followers, N=513)-completed surveys that included ratings of implementation leadership and organizational climate. Polynomial regression and response surface analyses were conducted to examine the associations of discrepancies in leader-follower ILS ratings with organizational involvement climate and performance feedback climate, aspects of climate likely to support EBP implementation. Both involvement climate and performance feedback climate were highest where leaders rated themselves low on the ILS and their followers rated those leaders high on the ILS ("humble leaders"). Teams with "humble leaders" showed more positive organizational climate for involvement and for performance feedback, contextual factors important during EBP implementation and sustainment. Discrepancy in leader and follower ratings of implementation leadership should be a consideration in understanding and improving leadership and organizational climate for mental health services and for EBP implementation and sustainment in mental health and other allied health settings. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26695393','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26695393">The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard 2016-05-01 Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.C44A..05S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.C44A..05S">MOSAiC - Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Shupe, M.; Persson, O. P.; Tjernstrom, M. K.; Dethloff, K. 2012-12-01 The climate in the Arctic is changing faster than in other regions of the Earth, with near surface temperatures rising more than twice as fast as the global average and the perennial sea-ice cover shrinking fast, especially in summer. The Arctic is transitioning towards a new climate regime dominated by first year sea-ice. At the same time, the scientific understanding of processes and feedbacks causing this rapid change is poor and climate modeling in the Arctic remains problematic. Furthermore, the key physical processes and process-interactions in this new emerging Arctic system are likely different from those in the old system that was dominated by multi-year ice. Our understanding of this complex climate system, and ability to improve climate and weather models, is limited by the lack of observations in the extreme and remote central Arctic. Multi-year, detailed and comprehensive measurements, extending from the atmosphere through the sea-ice and into the ocean in the central Arctic Basin are needed to provide process-level understanding of the central Arctic climate system. To address this need, a manned, international drifting station will be installed in the young sea-ice of the western Arctic and follow the evolution of the ice pack as it proceeds through the transpolar drift towards the Fram Strait over the course of 1-2 years. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC), proposed to start in autumn 2017, will be guided by the broad theme: What are the causes and consequences of diminished Arctic sea-ice coverage? To address this theme requires a number of interdisciplinary investigations that target more specific science questions. *How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system drive heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems? *What are the processes and feedbacks affecting sea ice cover, atmosphere-ocean stratification and energy budget in the Arctic? *Will an ice reduced Arctic become more biologically productive and what are the consequences of this to other components of the system? *How do the different scales of heterogeneity within the atmosphere ice and ocean interact to impact the linkages or feedbacks within the system? *How do interfacial exchange rates, biology and chemistry couple to regulate the major elemental cycles? MOSAiC will address these multi-disciplinary questions using intensive observations and modeling of processes that transfer energy, mass, and momentum through the atmosphere-ice-ocean system. The centerpiece of the observatory will be an icebreaker-based station to serve as a hub for intensive and comprehensive observations of climatically-significant physical, chemical, and biological processes through the vertical column. To provide important spatial context and horizontal variability, this facility will be the focal point for a constellation of coordinated observations made by drifting buoys, unmanned aerial and underwater vehicles, aircraft, ships, and satellites. These MOSAiC observational activities will serve as a testbed for evaluation and development of models at scales ranging from high-resolution, process models to regional and global climate models. MOSAiC observational and modeling activities will be linked at the outset, such that model needs will be integral in observational design, implementation, and analysis. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23D2394H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A23D2394H">Combining super-ensembles and statistical emulation to improve a regional climate and vegetation model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hawkins, L. R.; Rupp, D. E.; Li, S.; Sarah, S.; McNeall, D. J.; Mote, P.; Betts, R. A.; Wallom, D. 2017-12-01 Changing regional patterns of surface temperature, precipitation, and humidity may cause ecosystem-scale changes in vegetation, altering the distribution of trees, shrubs, and grasses. A changing vegetation distribution, in turn, alters the albedo, latent heat flux, and carbon exchanged with the atmosphere with resulting feedbacks onto the regional climate. However, a wide range of earth-system processes that affect the carbon, energy, and hydrologic cycles occur at sub grid scales in climate models and must be parameterized. The appropriate parameter values in such parameterizations are often poorly constrained, leading to uncertainty in predictions of how the ecosystem will respond to changes in forcing. To better understand the sensitivity of regional climate to parameter selection and to improve regional climate and vegetation simulations, we used a large perturbed physics ensemble and a suite of statistical emulators. We dynamically downscaled a super-ensemble (multiple parameter sets and multiple initial conditions) of global climate simulations using a 25-km resolution regional climate model HadRM3p with the land-surface scheme MOSES2 and dynamic vegetation module TRIFFID. We simultaneously perturbed land surface parameters relating to the exchange of carbon, water, and energy between the land surface and atmosphere in a large super-ensemble of regional climate simulations over the western US. Statistical emulation was used as a computationally cost-effective tool to explore uncertainties in interactions. Regions of parameter space that did not satisfy observational constraints were eliminated and an ensemble of parameter sets that reduce regional biases and span a range of plausible interactions among earth system processes were selected. This study demonstrated that by combining super-ensemble simulations with statistical emulation, simulations of regional climate could be improved while simultaneously accounting for a range of plausible land-atmosphere feedback strengths. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1455294-climate-extremes-landclimate-feedbacks-land-use-forcing','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1455294-climate-extremes-landclimate-feedbacks-land-use-forcing">Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5Â°C global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUC) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C vs 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations vs simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield overall similar results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in regional extremes occurrence at 1.5°C vs 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks andmore » land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which include major LUC in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUC are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA33B2186B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA33B2186B">Is this what you need? Direct feedback help climate change information exchange</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bachelet, D. M.; Brown, M.; Gough, M.; Basin, D. 2015-12-01 The combination of projected climate change and land use adds uncertainty to the long-term effectiveness of current management strategies. Managers need reliable information to adjust their strategies as population density increases. However they are currently overwhelmed by the diversity of available information and the multiplicity of sources. CBI's goal is to centralize and package effectively the usable information for land managers and for the general public in order to increase awareness and promote preparation for the challenges ahead. We are designing conservation planning atlases in Data Basin for a number of landscape conservation cooperatives to address this need. We are adding some user-friendly tools to specifically serve the available climate projections and land use data in a meaningful way. By working closely with a group of managers, our goal is to understand how consideration of these projections figures into the decision-making process and refine the ways we can deliver relevant metrics. We have been holding interviews to gather information and critical feedback on existing climate-related web pages and tools, providing us with benchmarks for improvement. As it turned out, the student-manager dialogue added a component of climate change education and awareness of available tools to the project. Through an iterative process we plan to continue this exchange and address the variety of issues managers continually have to face to maintain healthy ecosystems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1437030-climate-extremes-landclimate-feedbacks-land-use-forcing','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1437030-climate-extremes-landclimate-feedbacks-land-use-forcing">Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; ... 2018-04-02 Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437030','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1437030">Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P. Here, this article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated throughmore » soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1360790','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1360790"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Levine, Paul A.; Randerson, James T.; Swenson, Sean C. The relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) and atmospheric processes has important implications for predictability of climatic extremes and projection of future climate change. In places where moisture availability limits evapotranspiration (ET), variability in TWS has the potential to influence surface energy fluxes and atmospheric conditions. Where atmospheric conditions, in turn, influence moisture availability, a full feedback loop exists. Here we developed a novel approach for measuring the strength of both components of this feedback loop, i.e., the forcing of the atmosphere by variability in TWS and the response of TWS to atmospheric variability, using satellite observations of TWS, precipitation,more » solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit during 2002–2014. Our approach defines metrics to quantify the relationship between TWS anomalies and climate globally on a seasonal to interannual timescale. Metrics derived from the satellite data were used to evaluate the strength of the feedback loop in 38 members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) and in six models that contributed simulations to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We found that both forcing and response limbs of the feedback loop in LENS were stronger than in the satellite observations in tropical and temperate regions. Feedbacks in the selected CMIP5 models were not as strong as those found in LENS, but were still generally stronger than those estimated from the satellite measurements. Consistent with previous studies conducted across different spatial and temporal scales, our analysis suggests that models may overestimate the strength of the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Lastly, we describe several possible mechanisms that may contribute to this bias, and discuss pathways through which models may overestimate ET or overestimate the sensitivity of ET to TWS.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24082126','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24082126">Stratospheric water vapor feedback.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Dessler, A E; Schoeberl, M R; Wang, T; Davis, S M; Rosenlof, K H 2013-11-05 We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry-climate model to be +0.3 W/(m(2)⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1241953-emergent-constraints-cloud-feedbacks-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1241953-emergent-constraints-cloud-feedbacks-climate-sensitivity">Emergent Constraints for Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex 2015-10-26 Emergent constraints are physically explainable empirical relationships between characteristics of the current climate and long-term climate prediction that emerge in collections of climate model simulations. With the prospect of constraining long-term climate prediction, scientists have recently uncovered several emergent constraints related to long-term cloud feedbacks. We review these proposed emergent constraints, many of which involve the behavior of low-level clouds, and discuss criteria to assess their credibility. With further research, some of the cases we review may eventually become confirmed emergent constraints, provided they are accompanied by credible physical explanations. Because confirmed emergent constraints identify a source of model errormore » that projects onto climate predictions, they deserve extra attention from those developing climate models and climate observations. While a systematic bias cannot be ruled out, it is noteworthy that the promising emergent constraints suggest larger cloud feedback and hence climate sensitivity.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-06-08/pdf/2012-13905.pdf','FEDREG'); return false;" href="https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/FR-2012-06-08/pdf/2012-13905.pdf">77 FR 34062 - Announcement of the U.S. Geological Survey Science Strategy Planning Feedback Process</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/browse/collection.action?collectionCode=FR">Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014</a> 2012-06-08 ... strategies for each of its Mission Areas: Climate and Land Use Change, Core Science Systems, Ecosystems.... FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Listed below are contacts for each USGS Mission Area: Global Change... </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_8");'>8</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li class="active">10</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_11" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="201"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC22C..06J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC22C..06J">Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S. 2011-12-01 Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999TellA..51..349B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1999TellA..51..349B">A dynamical stabilizer in the climate system: a mechanism suggested by a simple model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bates, J. R. 1999-05-01 A simple zonally averaged hemispheric model of the climate system is constructed, based on energy equations for two ocean basins separated at 30° latitude with the surface fluxes calculated explicitly. A combination of empirical input and theoretical calculation is used to determine an annual mean equilibrium climate for the model and to study its stability with respect to small perturbations. The insolation, the mean albedos and the equilibrium temperatures for the two model zones are prescribed from observation. The principal agent of interaction between the zones is the vertically integrated poleward transport of atmospheric angular momentum across their common boundary. This is parameterized using an empirical formula derived from a multiyear atmospheric data set. The surface winds are derived from the angular momentum transport assuming the atmosphere to be in a state of dynamic balance on the climatic timescales of interest. A further assumption that the air sea temperature difference and low level relative humidity remain fixed at their mean observed values then allows the surface fluxes of latent and sensible heat to be calculated. Results from a radiative model, which show a positive lower tropospheric water vapour/infrared radiative feedback on SST perturbations in both zones, are used to calculate the net upward infrared radiative fluxes at the surface. In the model's equilibrium climate, the principal processes balancing the solar radiation absorbed at the surface are evaporation in the tropical zone and net infrared radiation in the extratropical zone. The stability of small perturbations about the equilibrium is studied using a linearized form of the ocean energy equations. Ice-albedo and cloud feedbacks are omitted and attention is focussed on the competing effects of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback and the turbulent surface flux and oceanic heat transport feedbacks associated with the angular momentum cycle. The perturbation equations involve inter-zone coupling and have coefficients dependent on the values of the equilibrium fluxes and the sensitivity of the angular momentum transport. Analytical solutions for the perturbations are obtained. These provide criteria for the stability of the equilibrium climate. If the evaporative feedback on SST perturbations is omitted, the equilibrium climate is unstable due to the influence of the water vapour/infrared radiative feedback, which dominates over the effects of the sensible heat and ocean heat transport feedbacks. The inclusion of evaporation gives a negative feedback which is of sufficient strength to stabilize the system. The stabilizing mechanism involves wind and humidity factors in the evaporative fluxes that are of comparable magnitude. Both factors involve the angular momentum transport. In including angular momentum and calculating the surface fluxes explicitly, the model presented here differs from the many simple climate models based on the Budyko Sellers formulation. In that formulation, an atmospheric energy balance equation is used to eliminate surface fluxes in favour of top-of-the-atmosphere radiative fluxes and meridional atmospheric energy transports. In the resulting models, infrared radiation appears as a stabilizing influence on SST perturbations and the dynamical stabilizing mechanism found here cannot be identified. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B23C0208K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.B23C0208K">Constraints on long-term carbon-climate feedbacks from spatially resolved CO2 growth rate fluctuations linked to temperature and precipitation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Keppel-Aleks, G.; Hoffman, F. M. 2014-12-01 Feedbacks between the global carbon cycle and climate represent one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. A promising method for reducing uncertainty in predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks is based on identifying an "emergent constraint" that leverages correlations between mechanistically linked long-term feedbacks and short-term variations within the model ensemble. By applying contemporary observations to evaluate model skill in simulating short-term variations, we may be able to better assess the probability of simulated long-term feedbacks. We probed the constraint on long-term terrestrial carbon stocks provided by climate-driven fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate at contemporary timescales. We considered the impact of both temperature and precipitation anomalies on terrestrial ecosystem exchange and further separated the direct influence of fire where possible. When we explicitly considered the role of atmospheric transport in smoothing the imprint of climate-driven flux anomalies on atmospheric CO2 patterns, we found that the extent of temporal averaging of both the observations and ESM output leads to estimates for the long-term climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage that are different by a factor of two. In the context of these results, we discuss strategies for applying emergent constraints for benchmarking biogeochemical feedbacks in ESMs. Specifically, our results underscore the importance of selecting appropriate observational benchmarks and, for future model intercomparison projects, outputting fields that most closely correspond to available observational datasets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......176S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......176S">Essays on the Economics of Climate Change, Biofuel and Food Prices</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Seguin, Charles Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not exhaustible and output is subject to climate change induced damages. We find that the competitive outcome does not necessarily yield an underproduction of biofuels, but when it does, second best policies like subsidies and mandates can improve welfare. In marketing, there has been extensive empirical research to ascertain whether there is evidence of loss aversion as predicted by several reference price preference theories. Most of that literature finds that there is indeed evidence of loss aversion for many different goods. I argue that it is possible that some of that evidence seemingly supporting loss aversion arises because price endogeneity is not properly taken into account. Using scanner data I study four product categories: bread, chicken, corn and tortilla chips, and pasta. Taking prices as exogenous, I find evidence of loss aversion for bread and corn and tortilla chips. However, when instrumenting prices, the "loss aversion evidence" disappears. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70176782','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70176782">Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Adams, Henry D.; Macalady, Alison K.; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Saleska, Scott; Huxman, Travis E.; McDowell, Nathan G. 2010-01-01 One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [Bonan, 2008; Chapin et al., 2008].According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [Allen et al., 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25119704','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25119704">Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Degen, C; Kettner, S E; Fischer, H; Lohse, J; Funke, J; Schwieren, C; Goeschl, T; Schröder, J 2014-08-01 Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028693','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70028693">Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; , 2006-01-01 The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5...56T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatCC...5...56T">Weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks resulting from microbial and abiotic interactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tang, Jinyun; Riley, William J. 2015-01-01 The large uncertainty in soil carbon-climate feedback predictions has been attributed to the incorrect parameterization of decomposition temperature sensitivity (Q10; ref. ) and microbial carbon use efficiency. Empirical experiments have found that these parameters vary spatiotemporally, but such variability is not included in current ecosystem models. Here we use a thermodynamically based decomposition model to test the hypothesis that this observed variability arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. We show that because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes and microbes, both Q10 and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic (so that neither can be represented by a single static function) and the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization with static temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4-K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker soil carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static Q10 and static carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current Earth system models probably overestimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming. Future ecosystem models should therefore consider the dynamic interactions between sorptive mineral surfaces, substrates and microbial processes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005725','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170005725">2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.; Ahlstrom, Anders; Abramowitz, Gabriel; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Best, Martin J.; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20170005725'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20170005725_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20170005725_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20170005725_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20170005725_hide"> 2016-01-01 As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920031563&hterms=moderation&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dmoderation','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19920031563&hterms=moderation&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dmoderation">Interpretation of snow-climate feedback as produced by 17 general circulation models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Cess, R. D.; Zhang, M.-H.; Potter, G. L.; Blanchet, J.-P.; Chalita, S.; Colman, R.; Dazlich, D. A.; Del Genio, A. D.; Lacis, A. A.; Dymnikov, V. 1991-01-01 Snow feedback is expected to amplify global warming caused by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. The conventional explanation is that a warmer earth will have less snow cover, resulting in a darker planet that absorbs more solar radiation. An intercomparison of 17 general circulation models, for which perturbations of sea surface temperature were used as a surrogate climate change, suggests that this explanation is overly simplistic. The results instead indicate that additional amplification or moderation may be caused both by cloud interactions and longwave radiation. One measure of this net effect of snow feedback was found to differ markedly among the 17 climate models, ranging from weak negative feedback in some models to strong positive feedback in others. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1136601-dynamics-coupled-human-climate-system-resulting-from-closed-loop-control-solar-geoengineering','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1136601-dynamics-coupled-human-climate-system-resulting-from-closed-loop-control-solar-geoengineering">Dynamics of the Coupled Human-climate System Resulting from Closed-loop Control of Solar Geoengineering</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> MacMartin, Douglas; Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Keith, David 2014-07-08 If solar radiation management (SRM) were ever implemented, feedback of the observed climate state might be used to adjust the radiative forcing of SRM, in order to compensate for uncertainty in either the forcing or the climate response; this would also compensate for unexpected changes in the system, e.g. a nonlinear change in climate sensitivity. This feedback creates an emergent coupled human-climate system, with entirely new dynamics. In addition to the intended response to greenhouse-gas induced changes, the use of feedback would also result in a geoengineering response to natural climate variability. We use a simple box-diffusion dynamic model tomore » understand how changing feedback-control parameters and time delay affect the behavior of this coupled natural-human system, and verify these predictions using the HadCM3L general circulation model. In particular, some amplification of natural variability is unavoidable; any time delay (e.g., to average out natural variability, or due to decision-making) exacerbates this amplification, with oscillatory behavior possible if there is a desire for rapid correction (high feedback gain), but a delayed response needed for decision making. Conversely, the need for feedback to compensate for uncertainty, combined with a desire to avoid excessive amplification, results in a limit on how rapidly SRM could respond to uncertain changes.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22353368','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22353368">Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J 2012-07-01 Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMGC22A..02F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFMGC22A..02F">Carbon Climate Feedbacks and Climate Sensitivity (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Fung, I. 2009-12-01 The Charney report (22 pages including bibliography and appendices) was written when atmospheric CO2 was 334 ppmv (1979). It estimates a climate sensitivity of 3 +/- 1.5C for a doubling of CO2, and points out the warming delay due to the slow penetration of heat into intermediate depths in the oceans and the decreasing capacity of the oceans to serve a CO2 sink. “We may not be given a warning until the CO2 loading is such that an appreciable climate change is inevitable. The equilibrium warming will eventually occur; it will merely have been postponed.” CO2 exceeded 385 ppmv in 2008, and the warning signs are now abundantly evident. One of the “slow” feedbacks not included in the Charney Report involves the interaction between the land carbon cycle and climate change. The carbon cycle on land is coupled to the water and energy cycles. This paper reviews positive and negative carbon-climate feedbacks associated with changes in the function and distribution of land ecosystems. These feedbacks, once in gear, will magnify climate sensitivity and accelerate global warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017102','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140017102">Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker 2013-01-01 Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5462527','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5462527">The Humble Leader: Association of Discrepancies in Leader and Follower Ratings of Implementation Leadership with Organizational Climate in Mental Health</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Aarons, Gregory A.; Ehrhart, Mark G.; Torres, Elisa M.; Finn, Natalie K.; Beidas, Rinad 2017-01-01 Objectives Discrepancies between leaders' self-ratings and follower ratings of the leader are common but usually go unrecognized. Research on discrepancies is limited but there is evidence that discrepancies are associated with organizational context. This study examined the association of leader-follower discrepancies in Implementation Leadership Scale (ILS) ratings of mental health clinic leaders, and the association of those discrepancies with organizational climate for involvement and performance feedback. Both involvement and performance feedback may be important for evidence-based practice implementation in mental health. Methods A total of 593 supervisors (i.e., leaders, n=80) and clinical service providers (i.e., followers, n=513) completed surveys including ratings of implementation leadership and organizational climate. Polynomial regression and response surface analyses were conducted to examine the associations of discrepancies in leader-follower ILS ratings with organizational involvement climate and performance feedback climate, aspects of climate likely to support EBP implementation. Results Both involvement climate and performance feedback climate were highest where leaders rated themselves low on the ILS and their followers rated those leaders high on the ILS (i.e., “humble leaders”). Conclusions Teams with “humble leaders” showed more positive organizational climate for involvement and for performance feedback, contextual factors important during EBP implementation and sustainment. Discrepancy in leader and follower ratings of implementation leadership should be a consideration in understanding and improving leadership and organizational climate for mental health services and for evidence-based practice implementation and sustainment in mental health and other allied health settings. PMID:27691380 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=308938&Lab=NHEERL&keyword=simulation+AND+processes&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50','EPA-EIMS'); return false;" href="https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=308938&Lab=NHEERL&keyword=simulation+AND+processes&actType=&TIMSType=+&TIMSSubTypeID=&DEID=&epaNumber=&ntisID=&archiveStatus=Both&ombCat=Any&dateBeginCreated=&dateEndCreated=&dateBeginPublishedPresented=&dateEndPublishedPresented=&dateBeginUpdated=&dateEndUpdated=&dateBeginCompleted=&dateEndCompleted=&personID=&role=Any&journalID=&publisherID=&sortBy=revisionDate&count=50">USING ECO-EVOLUTIONARY INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODELS TO INVESTIGATE SPATIALLY-DEPENDENT PROCESSES IN CONSERVATION GENETICS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://oaspub.epa.gov/eims/query.page">EPA Science Inventory</a> Eco-evolutionary population simulation models are powerful new forecasting tools for exploring management strategies for climate change and other dynamic disturbance regimes. Additionally, eco-evo individual-based models (IBMs) are useful for investigating theoretical feedbacks ... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375854','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1375854">Research Library Year in Review 2016</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Knudson, Frances Lynn; Varjabedian, Kathryn Ruth; Boorman, Helen A. 2016 was a year of strategy, analysis and moving forward. We launched January with a strategic planning process. Building on the Lab’s Strategic Plan and Purpose Statement, we created a process that reached out to Lab leadership, scientists & engineers, and Research Library (RL) staff. An external consultant was engaged to help drive the process and to lead a fullday staff retreat. A survey was created and administered to staff, seeking feedback on priorities and direction. A parallel survey was created for stakeholders. Stakeholder questions began with the macro – from the external climate to Lab and division priorities –more » to the micro concerning priorities and directions for the RL. Stakeholders were personally interviewed by teams of two that included an interviewer and a scribe. These thirty-plus interviews were collated into a spreadsheet. A sociologist provided semantic analysis for the feedback, creating an impact document of the interviews. The full day retreat provided an opportunity for staff to build on their feedback as well as stakeholder feedback. A great deal of brainstorming led to categorized priorities and scenarios. The RL Compass Team, encompassing library leadership, moved the next stage of the process forward by taking retreat feedback and creating a first draft of a plan. Two more rounds of feedback with smaller staff groups as well as the Library Advisory Board led to the final plan. The core plan is included in this report.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=reward+AND+systems+AND+motivation&pg=3&id=EJ1115248','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=reward+AND+systems+AND+motivation&pg=3&id=EJ1115248">Proper Use of Feedback Leads to an Optimal Motivational Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Staley, Addison; Moore, E. Whitney G. 2016-01-01 Feedback given by coaches can have a profound effect on athletes' performance, as well as on their perception of the motivational climate. The Coaching Behaviors Assessment System classifies the feedback that coaches give during practices or games into 12 behavioral categories, which will be described in this article. Real-life scenarios will be… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.A31C..05F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2005AGUFM.A31C..05F">Dirty Snow, Atmospheric Warming, and Climate Feedbacks from Boreal Black Carbon Emissions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Flanner, M. G.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Jin, Y. 2005-12-01 Black carbon (BC) emitted from boreal fires darkens snow and sea-ice surfaces, increases solar absorption in the atmosphere, and decreases the incident flux at the surface. Although global surface forcing of darkened snow/ice is small relative to atmospheric forcing, the former directly triggers ice-albedo feedback, whereas the latter directly alters the atmospheric lapse rate. This highlights the importance of examining climate feedback strength as well as instantaneous forcings. We used a coupled land-atmosphere GCM (NCAR CAM3) to compare the relative forcings and climate feedbacks of BC emitted from a suite of boreal forest fires over the last decade, accounting for both enhanced snow/ice and atmospheric absorption by BC. The net change in absorbed energy at the surface was about three times greater than the instantaneous surface forcing when BC interactively heated the snow. Timing and location of fires determined the magnitude of darkened snow/ice feedback potential. We also assessed climate feedback strength from BC emitted globally during extreme high and low fire years, including the 1998 fire season. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910031763&hterms=climate+facts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bfacts','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19910031763&hterms=climate+facts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D20%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bfacts">On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Stone, Peter H.; Risbey, James S. 1990-01-01 General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_9");'>9</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li class="active">11</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_12" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="221"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013Natur.504..268L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013Natur.504..268L">Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Leconte, Jérémy; Forget, Francois; Charnay, Benjamin; Wordsworth, Robin; Pottier, Alizée 2013-12-01 The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can `run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m-2, which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22094699','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22094699">Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lee, Xuhui; Goulden, Michael L; Hollinger, David Y; Barr, Alan; Black, T Andrew; Bohrer, Gil; Bracho, Rosvel; Drake, Bert; Goldstein, Allen; Gu, Lianhong; Katul, Gabriel; Kolb, Thomas; Law, Beverly E; Margolis, Hank; Meyers, Tilden; Monson, Russell; Munger, William; Oren, Ram; Paw U, Kyaw Tha; Richardson, Andrew D; Schmid, Hans Peter; Staebler, Ralf; Wofsy, Steven; Zhao, Lei 2011-11-16 Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24336285','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24336285">Increased insolation threshold for runaway greenhouse processes on Earth-like planets.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Leconte, Jérémy; Forget, Francois; Charnay, Benjamin; Wordsworth, Robin; Pottier, Alizée 2013-12-12 The increase in solar luminosity over geological timescales should warm the Earth's climate, increasing water evaporation, which will in turn enhance the atmospheric greenhouse effect. Above a certain critical insolation, this destabilizing greenhouse feedback can 'run away' until the oceans have completely evaporated. Through increases in stratospheric humidity, warming may also cause evaporative loss of the oceans to space before the runaway greenhouse state occurs. The critical insolation thresholds for these processes, however, remain uncertain because they have so far been evaluated using one-dimensional models that cannot account for the dynamical and cloud feedback effects that are key stabilizing features of the Earth's climate. Here we use a three-dimensional global climate model to show that the insolation threshold for the runaway greenhouse state to occur is about 375 W m(-2), which is significantly higher than previously thought. Our model is specifically developed to quantify the climate response of Earth-like planets to increased insolation in hot and extremely moist atmospheres. In contrast with previous studies, we find that clouds have a destabilizing feedback effect on the long-term warming. However, subsident, unsaturated regions created by the Hadley circulation have a stabilizing effect that is strong enough to shift the runaway greenhouse limit to higher values of insolation than are inferred from one-dimensional models. Furthermore, because of wavelength-dependent radiative effects, the stratosphere remains sufficiently cold and dry to hamper the escape of atmospheric water, even at large fluxes. This has strong implications for the possibility of liquid water existing on Venus early in its history, and extends the size of the habitable zone around other stars. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17227161','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17227161">Leader-member exchange and member performance: a new look at individual-level negative feedback-seeking behavior and team-level empowerment climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Chen, Ziguang; Lam, Wing; Zhong, Jian An 2007-01-01 From a basis in social exchange theory, the authors investigated whether, and how, negative feedback-seeking behavior and a team empowerment climate affect the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) and member performance. Results showed that subordinates' negative feedback-seeking behavior mediated the relationship between LMX and both objective and subjective in-role performance. In addition, the level of a team's empowerment climate was positively related to subordinates' own sense of empowerment, which in turn negatively moderated the effects of LMX on negative feedback-seeking behavior. 2007 APA, all rights reserved </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3831493','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3831493">Stratospheric water vapor feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Dessler, A. E.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Wang, T.; Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H. 2013-01-01 We show here that stratospheric water vapor variations play an important role in the evolution of our climate. This comes from analysis of observations showing that stratospheric water vapor increases with tropospheric temperature, implying the existence of a stratospheric water vapor feedback. We estimate the strength of this feedback in a chemistry–climate model to be +0.3 W/(m2⋅K), which would be a significant contributor to the overall climate sensitivity. One-third of this feedback comes from increases in water vapor entering the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause layer, with the rest coming from increases in water vapor entering through the extratropical tropopause. PMID:24082126 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910003143','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910003143">Climate Impact of Solar Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Schatten, Kenneth H. (Editor); Arking, Albert (Editor) 1990-01-01 The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006609','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140006609">Ground Water and Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20140006609'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140006609_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140006609_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140006609_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140006609_hide"> 2013-01-01 As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70057583','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70057583">Ground water and climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget R.; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard F.; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F.P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger 2012-01-01 As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1360790-evaluating-strength-land-atmosphere-moisture-feedback-earth-system-models-using-satellite-observations','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1360790-evaluating-strength-land-atmosphere-moisture-feedback-earth-system-models-using-satellite-observations">Evaluating the strength of the land$-$atmosphere moisture feedback in Earth system models using satellite observations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Levine, Paul A.; Randerson, James T.; Swenson, Sean C.; ... 2016-12-09 The relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) and atmospheric processes has important implications for predictability of climatic extremes and projection of future climate change. In places where moisture availability limits evapotranspiration (ET), variability in TWS has the potential to influence surface energy fluxes and atmospheric conditions. Where atmospheric conditions, in turn, influence moisture availability, a full feedback loop exists. Here we developed a novel approach for measuring the strength of both components of this feedback loop, i.e., the forcing of the atmosphere by variability in TWS and the response of TWS to atmospheric variability, using satellite observations of TWS, precipitation,more » solar radiation, and vapor pressure deficit during 2002–2014. Our approach defines metrics to quantify the relationship between TWS anomalies and climate globally on a seasonal to interannual timescale. Metrics derived from the satellite data were used to evaluate the strength of the feedback loop in 38 members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) and in six models that contributed simulations to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We found that both forcing and response limbs of the feedback loop in LENS were stronger than in the satellite observations in tropical and temperate regions. Feedbacks in the selected CMIP5 models were not as strong as those found in LENS, but were still generally stronger than those estimated from the satellite measurements. Consistent with previous studies conducted across different spatial and temporal scales, our analysis suggests that models may overestimate the strength of the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Lastly, we describe several possible mechanisms that may contribute to this bias, and discuss pathways through which models may overestimate ET or overestimate the sensitivity of ET to TWS.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29507383','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29507383">Negative soil moisture-precipitation feedback in dry and wet regions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Yang, Lingbin; Sun, Guoqing; Zhi, Lu; Zhao, Jianjun 2018-03-05 Soil moisture-precipitation (SM-P) feedback significantly influences the terrestrial water and energy cycles. However, the sign of the feedback and the associated physical mechanism have been debated, leaving a research gap regarding global water and climate changes. Based on Koster's framework, we estimate SM-P feedback using satellite remote sensing and ground observation data sets. Methodologically, the sign of the feedback is identified by the correlation between monthly soil moisture and next-month precipitation. The physical mechanism is investigated through coupling precipitation and soil moisture (P-SM), soil moisture ad evapotranspiration (SM-E) and evapotranspiration and precipitation (E-P) correlations. Our results demonstrate that although positive SM-P feedback is predominant over land, non-negligible negative feedback occurs in dry and wet regions. Specifically, 43.75% and 40.16% of the negative feedback occurs in the arid and humid climate zones. Physically, negative SM-P feedback depends on the SM-E correlation. In dry regions, evapotranspiration change is soil moisture limited. In wet regions, evapotranspiration change is energy limited. We conclude that the complex SM-E correlation results in negative SM-P feedback in dry and wet regions, and the cause varies based on the environmental and climatic conditions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800045585&hterms=current+feedback&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dcurrent%2Bfeedback','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19800045585&hterms=current+feedback&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Dcurrent%2Bfeedback">Effect of ice-albedo feedback on global sensitivity in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Wang, W.-C.; Stone, P. H. 1980-01-01 The feedback between the ice albedo and temperature is included in a one-dimensional radiative-convective climate model. The effect of this feedback on global sensitivity to changes in solar constant is studied for the current climate conditions. This ice-albedo feedback amplifies global sensitivity by 26 and 39%, respectively, for assumptions of fixed cloud altitude and fixed cloud temperature. The global sensitivity is not affected significantly if the latitudinal variations of mean solar zenith angle and cloud cover are included in the global model. The differences in global sensitivity between one-dimensional radiative-convective models and energy balance models are examined. It is shown that the models are in close agreement when the same feedback mechanisms are included. The one-dimensional radiative-convective model with ice-albedo feedback included is used to compute the equilibrium ice line as a function of solar constant. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5175B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5175B">The importance of terrestrial weathering for climate system modelling on extended timescales: a study with the UVic ESCM</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Brault, Marc-Olivier; Matthews, Damon; Mysak, Lawrence 2016-04-01 The chemical erosion of carbonate and silicate rocks is a key process in the global carbon cycle and, through its coupling with calcium carbonate deposition in the ocean, is the primary sink of carbon on geologic timescales. The dynamic interdependence of terrestrial weathering rates with atmospheric temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations is crucial to the regulation of Earth's climate over multi-millennial timescales. However any attempts to develop a modeling context for terrestrial weathering as part of a dynamic climate system are limited, mostly because of the difficulty in adapting the multi-millennial timescales of the implied negative feedback mechanism with those of the atmosphere and ocean. Much of the earlier work on this topic is therefore based on box-model approaches, abandoning spatial variability for the sake of computational efficiency and the possibility to investigate the impact of weathering on climate change over time frames much longer than those allowed by traditional climate system models. As a result we still have but a rudimentary understanding of the chemical weathering feedback mechanism and its effects on ocean biogeochemistry and atmospheric CO2. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, rock weathering model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). We use a land map which takes into account a number of different rock lithologies, changes in sea level, as well as an empirical model of the temperature and NPP dependency of weathering rates for the different rock types. We apply this new model to the last deglacial period (c. 21000BP to 13000BP) as well as a future climate change scenario (c. 1800AD to 6000AD+), comparing the results of our 2-D version of the weathering feedback mechanism to simulations using only the box-model parameterizations of Meissner et al. [2012]. These simulations reveal the importance of two-dimensional factors (i.e., changes in sea level and rock type distribution) in the role of the weathering negative feedback mechanism on multi-millennial timescales. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A33R..01W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A33R..01W">Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G. 2012-12-01 We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. Our study, the first application of a coupled Earth system model at regional scale and resolution over Africa, reveals that vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1271879','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1271879"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Erickson III, David J.; Sulzberger, Barbara; Zepp, Richard G. Climate change modulates the effects of solar UV radiation on biogeochemical cycles in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, particularly for carbon cycling, resulting in UV-mediated positive or negative feedbacks on climate. Possible positive feedbacks discussed in this assessment include: (i) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of above ground litter due to aridification; (ii) enhanced UV-induced mineralisation of photoreactive dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems due to changes in continental runoff and ice melting; (iii) reduced efficiency of the biological pump due to UV-induced bleaching of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in stratified aquatic ecosystems, where CDOM protects phytoplankton from the damaging solarmore » UV-B radiation. Mineralisation of organic matter results in the production and release of CO 2, whereas the biological pump is the main biological process for CO 2 removal by aquatic ecosystems. This research also assesses the interactive effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on the biogeochemical cycling of aerosols and trace gases other than CO 2, as well as of chemical and biological contaminants. Lastly,, interacting effects of solar UV radiation and climate change on biogeochemical cycles are particularly pronounced at terrestrial-aquatic interfaces.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1239215-forcing-feedbacks-climate-sensitivity-cmip5-coupled-atmosphere-ocean-climate-models','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1239215-forcing-feedbacks-climate-sensitivity-cmip5-coupled-atmosphere-ocean-climate-models">Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ... 2012-05-15 We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=326666','TEKTRAN'); return false;" href="http://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/publication/?seqNo115=326666">Ecosystem evapotranspiration: Challenges in measurements, estimates, and modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ars.usda.gov/research/publications/find-a-publication/">USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database</a> Evapotranspiration (ET) processes at the leaf-to-landscape scales in multiple land uses have important controls and feedbacks for the local, regional and global climate and water resource systems. Innovative methods, tools, and technologies for improved understanding and quantification of ET and cro... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1611327Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1611327Z">Severity of climate change dictates the direction of biophysical feedbacks of vegetation change to Arctic climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhang, Wenxin; Jansson, Christer; Miller, Paul; Smith, Ben; Samuelsson, Patrick 2014-05-01 Vegetation-climate feedbacks induced by vegetation dynamics under climate change alter biophysical properties of the land surface that regulate energy and water exchange with the atmosphere. Simulations with Earth System Models applied at global scale suggest that the current warming in the Arctic has been amplified, with large contributions from positive feedbacks, dominated by the effect of reduced surface albedo as an increased distribution, cover and taller stature of trees and shrubs mask underlying snow, darkening the surface. However, these models generally employ simplified representation of vegetation dynamics and structure and a coarse grid resolution, overlooking local or regional scale details determined by diverse vegetation composition and landscape heterogeneity. In this study, we perform simulations using an advanced regional coupled vegetation-climate model (RCA-GUESS) applied at high resolution (0.44×0.44° ) over the Arctic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Arctic) domain. The climate component (RCA4) is forced with lateral boundary conditions from EC-EARTH CMIP5 simulations for three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5). Vegetation-climate response is simulated by the individual-based dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), accounting for phenology, physiology, demography and resource competition of individual-based vegetation, and feeding variations of leaf area index and vegetative cover fraction back to the climate component, thereby adjusting surface properties and surface energy fluxes. The simulated 2m air temperature, precipitation, vegetation distribution and carbon budget for the present period has been evaluated in another paper. The purpose of this study is to elucidate the spatial and temporal characteristics of the biophysical feedbacks arising from vegetation shifts in response to different CO2 concentration pathways and their associated climate change. Our results indicate that the albedo feedback dominates simulated warming in spring in all three scenarios, while in summer, evapotranspiration feedback, governing the partitioning of the return energy flux from the surface to the atmosphere into latent and sensible heat, exerts evaporative cooling effects, the magnitude of which depends on the severity of climate change, in turn driven by the underlying GHG emissions pathway, resulting in shift in the sign of net biophysical at higher levels of warming. Spatially, western Siberia is identified as the most susceptible location, experiencing the potential to reverse biophysical feedbacks in all seasons. We further analyze how the pattern of vegetation shifts triggers different signs of net effects of biophysical feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21282151','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21282151">Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M 2011-03-13 Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.B32A..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009AGUFM.B32A..01B">Expectations and reality for high latitude versus high elevation global change (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bunn, A. G.; Lloyd, A. H. 2009-12-01 Arctic and alpine ecosystems are often treated as analogs of each other, in large part because they share a similar vegetation transition from forested to low-stature tundra communities. Despite the superficial similarities, the response of the two types of ecosystems to future climate change will likely differ because of differences in ecosystem history, function, and extent. The role of feedbacks differs substantially between the two as the Arctic terrestrial system is dominated by feedbacks which have the potential to significantly alter the rate and magnitude of future climate change. If invoked, these feedbacks will substantially alter and augment northern high latitude change far above the background forcing from increased greenhouse gas concentrations. The same is not obviously true for mountains, both because of the difference in areal extent and because of differences in soil characteristics that affect the potential for carbon cycle feedbacks. The climatic controls over biophysical processes may differ in subtle but important ways between the two systems despite the overriding importance of temperature as a control in both ecosystems. For example, changes in the position of the treeline ecotone in the Sierra Nevada during the late Holocene occurred in response to variation in both temperature and moisture, whereas treeline advance and retreat in Arctic regions appears to be primarily a function of temperature. Despite those differences, it appears likely that changes in Arctic and alpine ecosystems will have large influences on the global system. The consequences of changes in alpine ecosystems will be amplified by their large importance in controlling global water supplies. More than 50% of the world’s freshwater supplies, for example, are derived from mountainous regions. Any change to those regions might have disastrous effects on human welfare. Global impacts of changes in Arctic regions are amplified by the aforementioned feedbacks on the climate system, which have the potential to increase the rate of warming in high latitudes by several fold, with cascading effects on the global climate system. We will review some of the similarities and differences in arctic and alpine systems by showing data on predicted changes to the physical, floral, and faunal aspects of both systems paying particular attention to the role of feedbacks and forcings. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Climate+AND+change+AND+Effects&pg=7&id=EJ1043059','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=Climate+AND+change+AND+Effects&pg=7&id=EJ1043059">Effects of Feedback on Achievement Goals and Perceived Motivational Climate in Physical Education</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Erturan-Ilker, Gökçe 2014-01-01 The aim of the study is to determine the effects of teacher's positive and negative feedback on high school students' perceived motivational climate and achievement goals in a physical education setting. Forty seven ninth grade students participated in the study. The design was a 2 x 2 between subjects factorial crossing feedback condition… </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_10");'>10</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li class="active">12</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_13" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="241"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012LPICo1675.8026C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012LPICo1675.8026C">The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V. 2012-06-01 We review the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. We also compare the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B23J..02T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B23J..02T">Implementation ambiguity: The fifth element long lost in uncertainty budgets for land biogeochemical modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tang, J.; Riley, W. J. 2015-12-01 Previous studies have identified four major sources of predictive uncertainty in modeling land biogeochemical (BGC) processes: (1) imperfect initial conditions (e.g., assumption of preindustrial equilibrium); (2) imperfect boundary conditions (e.g., climate forcing data); (3) parameterization (type I equifinality); and (4) model structure (type II equifinality). As if that were not enough to cause substantial sleep loss in modelers, we propose here a fifth element of uncertainty that results from implementation ambiguity that occurs when the model's mathematical description is translated into computational code. We demonstrate the implementation ambiguity using the example of nitrogen down regulation, a necessary process in modeling carbon-climate feedbacks. We show that, depending on common land BGC model interpretations of the governing equations for mineral nitrogen, there are three different implementations of nitrogen down regulation. We coded these three implementations in the ACME land model (ALM), and explored how they lead to different preindustrial and contemporary land biogeochemical states and fluxes. We also show how this implementation ambiguity can lead to different carbon-climate feedback estimates across the RCP scenarios. We conclude by suggesting how to avoid such implementation ambiguity in ESM BGC models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A53Q..05M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A53Q..05M">Regional Arctic System Model (RASM): A Tool to Advance Understanding and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change at Process Scales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maslowski, W.; Roberts, A.; Osinski, R.; Brunke, M.; Cassano, J. J.; Clement Kinney, J. L.; Craig, A.; Duvivier, A.; Fisel, B. J.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Hamman, J.; Hughes, M.; Nijssen, B.; Zeng, X. 2014-12-01 The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic changes, which are some of the most coordinated changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. They are exemplified by the retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, which integrates forcing by, exchanges with and feedbacks between atmosphere, ocean and land. While historical reconstructions from Global Climate and Global Earth System Models (GC/ESMs) are in broad agreement with these changes, the rate of change in the GC/ESMs remains outpaced by observations. Reasons for that stem from a combination of coarse model resolution, inadequate parameterizations, unrepresented processes and a limited knowledge of physical and other real world interactions. We demonstrate the capability of the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) in addressing some of the GC/ESM limitations in simulating observed seasonal to decadal variability and trends in the sea ice cover and climate. RASM is a high resolution, fully coupled, pan-Arctic climate model that uses the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. It uses the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and Parallel Ocean Program (POP) configured at an eddy-permitting resolution of 1/12° as well as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models at 50 km resolution. All RASM components are coupled via the CESM flux coupler (CPL7) at 20-minute intervals. RASM is an example of limited-area, process-resolving, fully coupled earth system model, which due to the additional constraints from lateral boundary conditions and nudging within a regional model domain facilitates detailed comparisons with observational statistics that are not possible with GC/ESMs. In this talk, we will emphasize the utility of RASM to understand sensitivity to variable parameter space, importance of critical processes, coupled feedbacks and ultimately to reduce uncertainty in arctic climate change projections. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1810i0009S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AIPC.1810i0009S">Arctic melt ponds and energy balance in the climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sudakov, Ivan 2017-02-01 Elements of Earth's cryosphere, such as the summer Arctic sea ice pack, are melting at precipitous rates that have far outpaced the projections of large scale climate models. Understanding key processes, such as the evolution of melt ponds that form atop Arctic sea ice and control its optical properties, is crucial to improving climate projections. These types of critical phenomena in the cryosphere are of increasing interest as the climate system warms, and are crucial for predicting its stability. In this paper, we consider how geometrical properties of melt ponds can influence ice-albedo feedback and how it can influence the equilibria in the energy balance of the planet. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B23J..07B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.B23J..07B">Chasing Perfection: Should We Reduce Model Uncertainty in Carbon Cycle-Climate Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bonan, G. B.; Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Lindsay, K. T.; Thomas, R. Q. 2015-12-01 Earth system model simulations of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle show large multi-model spread in the carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback parameters. Large differences among models are also seen in their simulation of global vegetation and soil C stocks and other aspects of the C cycle, prompting concern about model uncertainty and our ability to faithfully represent fundamental aspects of the terrestrial C cycle in Earth system models. Benchmarking analyses that compare model simulations with common datasets have been proposed as a means to assess model fidelity with observations, and various model-data fusion techniques have been used to reduce model biases. While such efforts will reduce multi-model spread, they may not help reduce uncertainty (and increase confidence) in projections of the C cycle over the twenty-first century. Many ecological and biogeochemical processes represented in Earth system models are poorly understood at both the site scale and across large regions, where biotic and edaphic heterogeneity are important. Our experience with the Community Land Model (CLM) suggests that large uncertainty in the terrestrial C cycle and its feedback with climate change is an inherent property of biological systems. The challenge of representing life in Earth system models, with the rich diversity of lifeforms and complexity of biological systems, may necessitate a multitude of modeling approaches to capture the range of possible outcomes. Such models should encompass a range of plausible model structures. We distinguish between model parameter uncertainty and model structural uncertainty. Focusing on improved parameter estimates may, in fact, limit progress in assessing model structural uncertainty associated with realistically representing biological processes. Moreover, higher confidence may be achieved through better process representation, but this does not necessarily reduce uncertainty. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C11C0918M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C11C0918M">Toward Process-resolving Synthesis and Prediction of Arctic Climate Change Using the Regional Arctic System Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Maslowski, W. 2017-12-01 The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) has been developed to better understand the operation of Arctic System at process scale and to improve prediction of its change at a spectrum of time scales. RASM is a pan-Arctic, fully coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere-land model with marine biogeochemistry extension to the ocean and sea ice models. The main goal of our research is to advance a system-level understanding of critical processes and feedbacks in the Arctic and their links with the Earth System. The secondary, an equally important objective, is to identify model needs for new or additional observations to better understand such processes and to help constrain models. Finally, RASM has been used to produce sea ice forecasts for September 2016 and 2017, in contribution to the Sea Ice Outlook of the Sea Ice Prediction Network. Future RASM forecasts, are likely to include increased resolution for model components and ecosystem predictions. Such research is in direct support of the US environmental assessment and prediction needs, including those of the U.S. Navy, Department of Defense, and the recent IARPC Arctic Research Plan 2017-2021. In addition to an overview of RASM technical details, selected model results are presented from a hierarchy of climate models together with available observations in the region to better understand potential oceanic contributions to polar amplification. RASM simulations are analyzed to evaluate model skill in representing seasonal climatology as well as interannual and multi-decadal climate variability and predictions. Selected physical processes and resulting feedbacks are discussed to emphasize the need for fully coupled climate model simulations, high model resolution and sensitivity of simulated sea ice states to scale dependent model parameterizations controlling ice dynamics, thermodynamics and coupling with the atmosphere and ocean. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1029980-climate-sensitivity-community-climate-system-model-version','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1029980-climate-sensitivity-community-climate-system-model-version">Climate Sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model, Version 4</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Bitz, Cecilia M.; Shell, K. M.; Gent, P. R.; ... 2012-05-01 Equilibrium climate sensitivity of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) is 3.20°C for 1° horizontal resolution in each component. This is about a half degree Celsius higher than in the previous version (CCSM3). The transient climate sensitivity of CCSM4 at 1° resolution is 1.72°C, which is about 0.2°C higher than in CCSM3. These higher climate sensitivities in CCSM4 cannot be explained by the change to a preindustrial baseline climate. We use the radiative kernel technique to show that from CCSM3 to CCSM4, the global mean lapse-rate feedback declines in magnitude, and the shortwave cloud feedback increases. These twomore » warming effects are partially canceled by cooling due to slight decreases in the global mean water-vapor feedback and longwave cloud feedback from CCSM3 to CCSM4. A new formulation of the mixed-layer, slab ocean model in CCSM4 attempts to reproduce the SST and sea ice climatology from an integration with a full-depth ocean, and it is integrated with a dynamic sea ice model. These new features allow an isolation of the influence of ocean dynamical changes on the climate response when comparing integrations with the slab ocean and full-depth ocean. The transient climate response of the full-depth ocean version is 0.54 of the equilibrium climate sensitivity when estimated with the new slab ocean model version for both CCSM3 and CCSM4. We argue the ratio is the same in both versions because they have about the same zonal mean pattern of change in ocean surface heat flux, which broadly resembles the zonal mean pattern of net feedback strength.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820025446','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19820025446">Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate feedback mechanisms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Cess, R. D. 1982-01-01 As a consequence of fossil fuel burning, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased from 314 ppm in 1958, when detailed measurements of this quantity began, to a present value of 335 ppm; and it is estimated that during the next century, the CO2 concentration will double relative to its assumed preindustrial value of 290 ppm. Since CO2 is an infrared-active gas, increases in its atmospheric concentration would lead to a larger infrared opacity for the atmospheric which, by normal logic, would result in a warmer Earth. A number of modeling endeavors suggest a 2 to 4 C increase in global mean surface temperature with doubling of the CO2 concentration. But such estimates of CO2-induced warming are highly uncertain because of a lack of knowledge of climate feedback mechanisms. Interactive influences upon the solar and infrared opacities of the Earth-atmosphere system can either amplify or damp a climate-forcing mechanism such as increasing CO2. Climate feedback mechanisms discussed include climate sensitivity, cloudiness-radiation feedback, climate change predictions, and interactive atmospheric chemistry. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1209S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50.1209S">Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S. 2018-02-01 Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16433093','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16433093">Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Betts, Richard A 2005-11-29 This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1405199-quantifying-indirect-impacts-climate-agriculture-inter-method-comparison','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1405199-quantifying-indirect-impacts-climate-agriculture-inter-method-comparison">Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen 2017-10-27 Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k5004C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ERL....12k5004C">Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen 2017-11-01 Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1405199-quantifying-indirect-impacts-climate-agriculture-inter-method-comparison','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1405199-quantifying-indirect-impacts-climate-agriculture-inter-method-comparison">Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25967156','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25967156">Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan 2015-09-01 Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26324919','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26324919">Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Cronin, Timothy W; Tziperman, Eli 2015-09-15 High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback--consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state--slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼ 10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the "lapse rate feedback" in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914903S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1914903S">Interactions between tectonics, climate and vegetation during the Cretaceous. A context for the diversification of Angiosperms.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sepulchre, Pierre; Chaboureau, Anne-Claire; Donnadieu, Yannick; Franc, Alain; Ladant, Jean-Baptiste 2017-04-01 It has long been thought that the Angiosperms diversification occurred within a context of warmer-than-present and equable climate during the Cretaceous. However, during the last decade, the view of a uniformely warm Cretaceous climate has been challenged both by paleoclimate proxies and numerical simulations. Among the processes likely affecting climate during this time, atmospheric pCO2 and tectonics appear to be pivotal to drive temperature and precipitation changes, while the feedbacks from vegetation cover changes on the hydrological cycles remain to be explored. Here we attempt to provide a review of the main studies exploring climate-vegetation interactions during the Cretaceous. Then we present climate simulations aiming at quantifying the impact of landmasses redistribution on climate and vegetation distribution from 225 Ma to 70 Ma. In our simulations, the Pangea breakup triggers the decrease of arid belts from the Triassic to the Cretaceous and a subsequent onset of humid conditions during the late Cretaceous. Positioning angiosperm-bearing fossil sites on our paleo-bioclimatic maps confirm that the rise of flowering plants occured within a context of changing climate. With additional simulations in which we modified physiological parameterizations of the vegetation, we explore the combined impact of paleogeography and shift to angiosperms-dominated land surfaces on climate at the regional and global scales. This gives us the opportunity to test earlier ideas that the angiosperms takeover could have benefited from a positive feedback induced by their particular transpiration capacities. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A14F..05S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A14F..05S">Convection and the Soil-Moisture Precipitation Feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schar, C.; Froidevaux, P.; Keller, M.; Schlemmer, L.; Langhans, W.; Schmidli, J. 2014-12-01 The soil moisture - precipitation (SMP) feedback is of key importance for climate and climate change. A positive SMP feedback tends to amplify the hydrological response to external forcings (and thereby fosters precipitation and drought extremes), while a negative SMP feedback tends to moderate the influence of external forcings (and thereby stabilizes the hydrological cycle). The sign of the SMP feedback is poorly constrained by the current literature. Theoretical, modeling and observational studies partly disagree, and have suggested both negative and positive feedback loops. Can wet soil anomalies indeed result in either an increase or a decrease of precipitation (positive or negative SMP feedback, respectively)? Here we investigate the local SMP feedback using real-case and idealized convection-resolving simulations. An idealized simulation strategy is developed, which is able to replicate both signs of the feedback loop, depending on the environmental parameters. The mechanism relies on horizontal soil moisture variations, which may develop and intensify spontaneously. The positive expression of the feedback is associated with the initiation of convection over dry soil patches, but the convective cells then propagate over wet patches, where they strengthen and preferentially precipitate. The negative feedback may occur when the wind profile is too weak to support the propagation of convective features from dry to wet areas. Precipitation is then generally weaker and falls preferentially over dry patches. The results highlight the role of the mid-tropospheric flow in determining the sign of the feedback. A key element of the positive feedback is the exploitation of both low convective inhibition (CIN) over dry patches (for the initiation of convection), and high CAPE over wet patches (for the generation of precipitation). The results of this study will also be discussed in relation to climate change scenarios that exhibit large biases in surface temperature and interannual variability over mid-latitude summer climates, both over Europe and North America. It is argued that parameterized convection may contribute towards such biases by overemphasizing a positive SMP feedback. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=intelligence+AND+emotional+AND+Daniel+AND+Goleman&pg=2&id=EJ636624','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=intelligence+AND+emotional+AND+Daniel+AND+Goleman&pg=2&id=EJ636624">Primal Leadership: The Hidden Driver of Great Performance.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Goleman, Daniel; Boyatzis, Richard; McKee, Annie 2001-01-01 An extension of emotional intelligence research demonstrated that leaders' moods play a key role in organizational climate and effectiveness. A process for developing emotionally intelligent behaviors emerged: developing self-awareness, collecting 360 feedback, action planning, learning new habits, and cultivating a community of supporters. (SK) </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A41K..07H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A41K..07H">Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K. 2016-12-01 Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41F..05F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC41F..05F">How Continuous Observations of Shortwave Reflectance Spectra Can Narrow the Range of Shortwave Climate Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Feldman, D.; Collins, W. D.; Wielicki, B. A.; Shea, Y.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Kuo, C.; Nguyen, N. 2017-12-01 Shortwave feedbacks are a persistent source of uncertainty for climate models and a large contributor to the diagnosed range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) for the international multi-model ensemble. The processes that contribute to these feedbacks affect top-of-atmosphere energetics and produce spectral signatures that may be time-evolving. We explore the value of such spectral signatures for providing an observational constraint on model ECS by simulating top-of-atmosphere shortwave reflectance spectra across much of the energetically-relevant shortwave bandpass (300 to 2500 nm). We present centennial-length shortwave hyperspectral simulations from low, medium and high ECS models that reported to the CMIP5 archive as part of an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in support of the CLimate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO). Our framework interfaces with CMIP5 archive results and is agnostic to the choice of model. We simulated spectra from the INM-CM4 model (ECS of 2.08 °K/2xCO2), the MIROC5 model (ECS of 2.70 °K/2xCO2), and the CSIRO Mk3-6-0 (ECS of 4.08 °K/2xCO2) based on those models' integrations of the RCP8.5 scenario for the 21st Century. This approach allows us to explore how perfect data records can exclude models of lower or higher climate sensitivity. We find that spectral channels covering visible and near-infrared water-vapor overtone bands can potentially exclude a low or high sensitivity model with under 15 years' of absolutely-calibrated data. These different spectral channels are sensitive to model cloud radiative effect and cloud height changes, respectively. These unprecedented calculations lay the groundwork for spectral simulations of perturbed-physics ensembles in order to identify those shortwave observations that can help narrow the range in shortwave model feedbacks and ultimately help reduce the stubbornly-large range in model ECS. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_11");'>11</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li class="active">13</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_14" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="261"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080022971&hterms=datasets&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Ddatasets','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20080022971&hterms=datasets&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Ddatasets">Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R. 2008-01-01 There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5. Diurnal cycles are explicitly resolved by merging geostationary satellite observations with CERES and MODIS. Atmospheric state data are provided from a frozen version of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office- Data Assimilation System at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. In addition to improving the accuracy of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, CERES also produces radiative fluxes at the surface and at several levels in the atmosphere using radiative transfer modeling, constrained at the TOA by CERES (ERBE was limited to the TOA). In all, CERES uses 11 instruments on 7 spacecraft all integrated to obtain climate accuracy in TOA to surface fluxes. This presentation will provide an overview of several new CERES datasets of interest to the climate community (including a new adjusted TOA flux dataset constrained by estimates of heat storage in the Earth system), show direct comparisons between CERES ad ERBE, and provide a detailed error analysis of CERES fluxes at various time and space scales. We discuss how observations can be used to reduce uncertainties in cloud feedback and climate sensitivity and strongly argue why we should NOT "call off the quest". </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1398774-large-historical-growth-global-terrestrial-gross-primary-production','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1398774-large-historical-growth-global-terrestrial-gross-primary-production">Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U.; ... 2017-04-05 Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1398774','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1398774">Large historical growth in global terrestrial gross primary production</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Campbell, J. E.; Berry, J. A.; Seibt, U. Growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) may provide a negative feedback for climate change. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent biogeochemical processes can suppress global GPP growth. In consequence, model estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle –climate feedbacks remain poorly constrained. Here we present a global, measurement-based estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century based on long-term atmospheric carbonyl sulphide (COS) records derived from ice core, firn, and ambient air samples. Here, we interpret these records using a model that simulates changes in COS concentration due to changes in its sources and sinks, including amore » large sink that is related to GPP. We find that the COS record is most consistent with climate-carbon cycle model simulations that assume large GPP growth during the twentieth century (31% ± 5%; mean ± 95% confidence interval). Finally, while this COS analysis does not directly constrain estimates of future GPP growth it provides a global-scale benchmark for historical carbon cycle simulations.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.A11C0085W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.A11C0085W">Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/surface Measurements</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wang, S.; Gautam, R.; Lau, W. K.; Tsay, S.; Sun, W.; Kim, K.; Chern, J.; Colarco, P. R.; Hsu, N. C.; Lin, N. 2011-12-01 Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation. In addition to modeling study, we will also present the most recent results on aerosol properties, regional aerosol absorption, and radiative forcing estimation based on NASA's operational satellite and ground-based remote sensing. Observational results show spatial gradients in aerosol loading and solar absorption accounting over Indo-Gangetic Plains during the pre-monsoon season. The direct radiative forcing of aerosols at surface to be -19-23 Wm-2 (12-15 % of the surface solar insolation) over NW India is estimated using an observational approach. A comparison of aerosol radiative forcing between numerical simulation and observational estimate will be presented. Overall, this work will demonstrate the aerosol direct effects from both modeling and observation perspectives, and further to assess the physical processes underlying the aerosol radiative feedbacks and possible impacts on the large-scale South Asian monsoon system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatGe...8..346M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015NatGe...8..346M">Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn 2015-05-01 Equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 falls between 2.0 and 4.6 K in current climate models, and they suggest a weak increase in global mean precipitation. Inferences from the observational record, however, place climate sensitivity near the lower end of this range and indicate that models underestimate some of the changes in the hydrological cycle. These discrepancies raise the possibility that important feedbacks are missing from the models. A controversial hypothesis suggests that the dry and clear regions of the tropical atmosphere expand in a warming climate and thereby allow more infrared radiation to escape to space. This so-called iris effect could constitute a negative feedback that is not included in climate models. We find that inclusion of such an effect in a climate model moves the simulated responses of both temperature and the hydrological cycle to rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations closer to observations. Alternative suggestions for shortcomings of models -- such as aerosol cooling, volcanic eruptions or insufficient ocean heat uptake -- may explain a slow observed transient warming relative to models, but not the observed enhancement of the hydrological cycle. We propose that, if precipitating convective clouds are more likely to cluster into larger clouds as temperatures rise, this process could constitute a plausible physical mechanism for an iris effect. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000QSRv...19....9R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2000QSRv...19....9R">The ice record of greenhouse gases: a view in the context of future changes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Raynaud, D.; Barnola, J.-M.; Chappellaz, J.; Blunier, T.; Indermühle, A.; Stauffer, B. 2000-01-01 Analysis of air trapped in polar ice provides the most direct information on the natural variability of Greenhouse Trace Gases (GTG). It gives the context for the dramatic change in their atmospheric concentrations induced by anthropogenic activities over the last 200 yr, leading to present-day levels which have been unprecedented over the last 400,000 yr. The GTG ice record also provides insight into the processes generally involved in the interplay between these trace gases and the climate and in particular those which are likely to take place in the next centuries in terms of climate changes and climate feedbacks on ecosystems. The paper gives selected examples of the GTG record, taken during different climatic periods in the past, and illustrating what we can learn in terms of processes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3785813','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3785813">Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker 2013-01-01 Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24043864','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24043864">Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker 2013-10-28 Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18615117','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18615117">Microbial contributions to climate change through carbon cycle feedbacks.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bardgett, Richard D; Freeman, Chris; Ostle, Nicholas J 2008-08-01 There is considerable interest in understanding the biological mechanisms that regulate carbon exchanges between the land and atmosphere, and how these exchanges respond to climate change. An understanding of soil microbial ecology is central to our ability to assess terrestrial carbon cycle-climate feedbacks, but the complexity of the soil microbial community and the many ways that it can be affected by climate and other global changes hampers our ability to draw firm conclusions on this topic. In this paper, we argue that to understand the potential negative and positive contributions of soil microbes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange and global warming requires explicit consideration of both direct and indirect impacts of climate change on microorganisms. Moreover, we argue that this requires consideration of complex interactions and feedbacks that occur between microbes, plants and their physical environment in the context of climate change, and the influence of other global changes which have the capacity to amplify climate-driven effects on soil microbes. Overall, we emphasize the urgent need for greater understanding of how soil microbial ecology contributes to land-atmosphere carbon exchange in the context of climate change, and identify some challenges for the future. In particular, we highlight the need for a multifactor experimental approach to understand how soil microbes and their activities respond to climate change and consequences for carbon cycle feedbacks. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42626','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/42626">Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Jane M. Wolken; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin; Sarah F. Trainor; Tara M. Barrett; Patrick F. Sullivan; A. David McGuire; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Paul E. Hennon; Erik A. Beever; Jeff S. Conn; Lisa K. Crone; David V. A' More; Nancy Fresco; Thomas A. Hanley; Knut Kielland; James J. Kruse; Trista Patterson; Edward A.G. Schuur; David L. Verbyla; John Yarie 2011-01-01 The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21560677','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21560677">The role of plant-soil feedbacks in driving native-species recovery.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Yelenik, Stephanie G; Levine, Jonathan M 2011-01-01 The impacts of exotic plants on soil nutrient cycling are often hypothesized to reinforce their dominance, but this mechanism is rarely tested, especially in relation to other ecological factors. In this manuscript we evaluate the influence of biogeochemically mediated plant-soil feedbacks on native shrub recovery in an invaded island ecosystem. The introduction of exotic grasses and grazing to Santa Cruz Island, California, USA, converted native shrublands (dominated by Artemisia californica and Eriogonum arborescens) into exotic-dominated grasslands (dominated by Avena barbata) over a century ago, altering nutrient-cycling regimes. To test the hypothesis that exotic grass impacts on soils alter reestablishment of native plants, we implemented a field-based soil transplant experiment in three years that varied widely in rainfall. Our results showed that growth of Avena and Artemisia seedlings was greater on soils influenced by their heterospecific competitor. Theory suggests that the resulting plant-soil feedback should facilitate the recovery of Artemisia in grasslands, although four years of monitoring showed no such recovery, despite ample seed rain. By contrast, we found that species effects on soils lead to weak to negligible feedbacks for Eriogonum arborescens, yet this shrub readily colonized the grasslands. Thus, plant-soil feedbacks quantified under natural climate and competitive conditions did not match native-plant recovery patterns. We also found that feedbacks changed with climate and competition regimes, and that these latter factors generally had stronger effects on seedling growth than species effects on soils. We conclude that even when plant-soil feedbacks influence the balance between native and exotic species, their influence may be small relative to other ecological processes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916019G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1916019G">The effect on Arctic climate of atmospheric meridional energy-transport changes studied based on the CESM climate model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Grand Graversen, Rune 2017-04-01 The Arctic amplification of global warming, and the pronounced Arctic sea-ice retreat constitute some of the most alarming signs of global climate change. These Arctic changes are likely a consequence of a combination of several processes, for instance enhanced uptake of solar radiation in the Arctic due to a decrease of sea ice (the ice-albedo feedback), and increase in the local Arctic greenhouse effect due to enhanced moister flux from lower latitudes. Many of the proposed processes appear to be dependent on each other, for instance an increase in water-vapour advection to the Arctic enhances the greenhouse effect in the Arctic and the longwave radiation to the surface, leading to sea-ice melt and enhancement of the ice-albedo feedback. The effects of albedo changes and other radiative feedbacks have been investigated in earlier studies based on model experiments designed to examine these effects specifically. Here we instead focus on the effects of meridional transport changes into the Arctic, both of moister and dry-static energy. Hence we here present results of model experiments with the CESM climate model designed specifically to extract the effects of the changes of the two transport components. In the CESM model the moister transport to the Arctic increases, whereas the dry-static transport decreases in response to a doubling of CO2. This is in agreement with other model results. The model is now forced with these transport changes of water-vapour and dry-static energy associated with a CO2 doubling. The results show that changes of the water-vapour transport lead to Arctic warming. This is partly a consequence of the ice-albedo feedback due to sea-ice melt caused by the change of the water-vapour advection. The changes of the dry-static transport lead to Arctic cooling, which however is smaller than the warming induced by the water-vapour component. Hence this study support the hypothesis that changes in the atmospheric circulation contribute to the Arctic temperature amplification of the ongoing global warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26960564','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26960564">Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Larsen, Morten A D; Christensen, Jens H; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B; Refsgaard, Jens C 2016-03-10 The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4785381','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4785381">Local control on precipitation in a fully coupled climate-hydrology model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Larsen, Morten A. D.; Christensen, Jens H.; Drews, Martin; Butts, Michael B.; Refsgaard, Jens C. 2016-01-01 The ability to simulate regional precipitation realistically by climate models is essential to understand and adapt to climate change. Due to the complexity of associated processes, particularly at unresolved temporal and spatial scales this continues to be a major challenge. As a result, climate simulations of precipitation often exhibit substantial biases that affect the reliability of future projections. Here we demonstrate how a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to a distributed hydrological catchment model that fully integrates water and energy fluxes between the subsurface, land surface, plant cover and the atmosphere, enables a realistic representation of local precipitation. Substantial improvements in simulated precipitation dynamics on seasonal and longer time scales is seen for a simulation period of six years and can be attributed to a more complete treatment of hydrological sub-surface processes including groundwater and moisture feedback. A high degree of local influence on the atmosphere suggests that coupled climate-hydrology models have a potential for improving climate projections and the results further indicate a diminished need for bias correction in climate-hydrology impact studies. PMID:26960564 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A23G..05S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.A23G..05S">Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sejas, S.; Cai, M. 2012-12-01 Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000054269&hterms=water+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bchange','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20000054269&hterms=water+change&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D40%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bchange">Water Vapor Feedbacks to Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Rind, David 1999-01-01 The response of water vapor to climate change is investigated through a series of model studies with varying latitudinal temperature gradients, mean temperatures, and ultimately, actual climate change configurations. Questions to be addressed include: what role does varying convection have in water vapor feedback; do Hadley Circulation differences result in differences in water vapor in the upper troposphere; and, does increased eddy energy result in greater eddy vertical transport of water vapor in varying climate regimes? </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3990H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.3990H">Soil frost-induced soil moisture precipitation feedback and effects on atmospheric states</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hagemann, Stefan; Blome, Tanja; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian 2016-04-01 Permafrost or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. Moreover, until recently, many global circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) lacked the sufficient representation of permafrost physics in their land surface schemes. Within the European Union FP7 project PAGE21, the land surface scheme JSBACH of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology ESM (MPI-ESM) has been equipped with the representation of relevant physical processes for permafrost studies. These processes include the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In the present study, it will be analysed how these permafrost relevant processes impact large-scale hydrology and climate over northern hemisphere high latitude land areas. For this analysis, the atmosphere-land part of MPI-ESM, ECHAM6-JSBACH, is driven by prescribed observed SST and sea ice in an AMIP2-type setup with and without the newly implemented permafrost processes. Results show a large improvement in the simulated discharge. On one hand this is related to an improved snowmelt peak of runoff due to frozen soil in spring. On the other hand a subsequent reduction of soil moisture leads to a positive land atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes, which reduces the model's wet biases in precipitation and evapotranspiration during the summer. This is noteworthy as soil moisture - atmosphere feedbacks have previously not been in the research focus over the high latitudes. These results point out the importance of high latitude physical processes at the land surface for the regional climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1569576','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1569576">Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> A. Betts, Richard 2005-01-01 This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..4210788M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..4210788M">Untangling climate signals from autogenic changes in long-term peatland development</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andy J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T. 2015-12-01 Peatlands represent important archives of Holocene paleoclimatic information. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behavior from climate and overwrite climatic signals in peat records. We use a simulation model of peatland development driven by a range of Holocene climate reconstructions to investigate climate signal preservation in peat records. Simulated water-table depths and peat decomposition profiles exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, whereas changes in temperature cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function. Autogenic ecohydrological feedbacks provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, particularly rainfall. Large-magnitude climatic changes of an intermediate temporal scale (i.e., multidecadal to centennial) are most readily preserved in our simulated peat records. Simulated decomposition signals are offset from the climatic changes that generate them due to a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Our study provides the mechanistic foundations for a framework to separate climatic and autogenic signals in peat records. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70047658','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70047658">Trajectory of the arctic as an integrated system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Hinzman, Larry; Deal, Clara; McGuire, Anthony David; Mernild, Sebastian H.; Polyakov, Igor V.; Walsh, John E. 2013-01-01 Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic System and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic; and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_12");'>12</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li class="active">14</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_15" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="281"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24555312','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24555312">Trajectory of the Arctic as an integrated system.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Hinzman, Larry D; Deal, Clara J; McGuire, A David; Mernild, Sebastian H; Polyakov, Igor V; Walsh, John E 2013-12-01 Although much remains to be learned about the Arctic and its component processes, many of the most urgent scientific, engineering, and social questions can only be approached through a broader system perspective. Here, we address interactions between components of the Arctic system and assess feedbacks and the extent to which feedbacks (1) are now underway in the Arctic and (2) will shape the future trajectory of the Arctic system. We examine interdependent connections among atmospheric processes, oceanic processes, sea-ice dynamics, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, land surface stocks of carbon and water, glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice sheet. Our emphasis on the interactions between components, both historical and anticipated, is targeted on the feedbacks, pathways, and processes that link these different components of the Arctic system. We present evidence that the physical components of the Arctic climate system are currently in extreme states, and that there is no indication that the system will deviate from this anomalous trajectory in the foreseeable future. The feedback for which the evidence of ongoing changes is most compelling is the surface albedo-temperature feedback, which is amplifying temperature changes over land (primarily in spring) and ocean (primarily in autumn-winter). Other feedbacks likely to emerge are those in which key processes include surface fluxes of trace gases, changes in the distribution of vegetation, changes in surface soil moisture, changes in atmospheric water vapor arising from higher temperatures and greater areas of open ocean, impacts of Arctic freshwater fluxes on the meridional overturning circulation of the ocean, and changes in Arctic clouds resulting from changes in water vapor content. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160011267&hterms=soil&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dsoil','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20160011267&hterms=soil&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dsoil">LS3MIP (v1.0) Contribution to CMIP6: The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project Aims, Setup and Expected Outcome.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Van Den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Derksen, Chris; Oki, Taikan; Douville, Herve; Colin, Jeanne; Ducharne, Agnes; Cheruy, Frederique; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20160011267'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20160011267_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20160011267_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20160011267_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20160011267_hide"> 2016-01-01 The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow, and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth System Models (ESMs). The solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both strongly affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. However, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems).The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (LMIP, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (LFMIP, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1376656-ls3mip-v1-contribution-cmip6-land-surface-snow-soilmoisture-model-intercomparison-project-aims-setup-expected-outcome','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1376656-ls3mip-v1-contribution-cmip6-land-surface-snow-soilmoisture-model-intercomparison-project-aims-setup-expected-outcome">LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soilmoisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> van den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard; ... 2016-08-24 The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). Furthermore, the solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both stronglymore » affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. But, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376656','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376656">LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soilmoisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> van den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard The Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP) is designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of land surface, snow and soil moisture feedbacks on climate variability and climate change, and to diagnose systematic biases in the land modules of current Earth system models (ESMs). Furthermore, the solid and liquid water stored at the land surface has a large influence on the regional climate, its variability and predictability, including effects on the energy, water and carbon cycles. Notably, snow and soil moisture affect surface radiation and flux partitioning properties, moisture storage and land surface memory. They both stronglymore » affect atmospheric conditions, in particular surface air temperature and precipitation, but also large-scale circulation patterns. But, models show divergent responses and representations of these feedbacks as well as systematic biases in the underlying processes. LS3MIP will provide the means to quantify the associated uncertainties and better constrain climate change projections, which is of particular interest for highly vulnerable regions (densely populated areas, agricultural regions, the Arctic, semi-arid and other sensitive terrestrial ecosystems). The experiments are subdivided in two components, the first addressing systematic land biases in offline mode (“LMIP”, building upon the 3rd phase of Global Soil Wetness Project; GSWP3) and the second addressing land feedbacks attributed to soil moisture and snow in an integrated framework (“LFMIP”, building upon the GLACE-CMIP blueprint).« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22924469','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22924469">Modelling terrestrial nitrous oxide emissions and implications for climate feedback.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Xu-Ri; Prentice, I Colin; Spahni, Renato; Niu, Hai Shan 2012-10-01 Ecosystem nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions respond to changes in climate and CO2 concentration as well as anthropogenic nitrogen (N) enhancements. Here, we aimed to quantify the responses of natural ecosystem N2O emissions to multiple environmental drivers using a process-based global vegetation model (DyN-LPJ). We checked that modelled annual N2O emissions from nonagricultural ecosystems could reproduce field measurements worldwide, and experimentally observed responses to step changes in environmental factors. We then simulated global N2O emissions throughout the 20th century and analysed the effects of environmental changes. The model reproduced well the global pattern of N2O emissions and the observed responses of N cycle components to changes in environmental factors. Simulated 20th century global decadal-average soil emissions were c. 8.2-9.5 Tg N yr(-1) (or 8.3-10.3 Tg N yr(-1) with N deposition). Warming and N deposition contributed 0.85±0.41 and 0.80±0.14 Tg N yr(-1), respectively, to an overall upward trend. Rising CO2 also contributed, in part, through a positive interaction with warming. The modelled temperature dependence of N2O emission (c. 1 Tg N yr(-1) K(-1)) implies a positive climate feedback which, over the lifetime of N2O (114 yr), could become as important as the climate-carbon cycle feedback caused by soil CO2 release. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA51A2203R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMPA51A2203R">Development and Application of Future Climate Scenarios for Natural Resource Management in Southwestern Colorado</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Wyborn, C.; Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W. 2015-12-01 Locally relevant projections of climate change provide critical insights for natural resource managers seeking to adapt their management activities to climate change in the context of uncertainty. To provide such information, we developed climate scenarios, in form of narratives and quantitative information, of future climate change and its impacts in southwestern Colorado. This information was intended to provide detailed insights into the range of changes that natural resource managers may face in the future. The scenarios were developed in an iterative process through interactions among the ecologists, social and climate scientists. In our scenario development process, climate uncertainty is acknowledged by having multiple scenarios, where each scenario is regarded as a storyline with equal likelihood as another scenario. We quantified changes in several decision relevant climate and ecological responses based on our best available understanding and provided a tight storyline for each scenario to facilitate (a) a more augmented use of scientific information in a decision-making process, (b) differential responses from stakeholders across the different scenarios, and (c) identification of strategies that could work across these multiple scenarios. Here, we discuss the process of selecting the scenarios, quantifying climate and ecological responses, and the criteria for building the narrative for each scenario. We also discuss the process by which these scenarios get used, and provide an assessment of their effectiveness and users' feedbacks that could inform the future development of these tools and processes. This research involvement and collaboration occurred, in part, as a result of the PACE Fellowship Program that is associated with NOAA Climate Program Office and the U.S. CLIVAR community. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170003432','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170003432">Positive Low Cloud and Dust Feedbacks Amplify Tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Yuan, Tianle; Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; Yu, Hongbin; Norris, Joel R.; Chin, Mian; Platnick, Steven; Meyer, Kerry 2016-01-01 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropical trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1249953-positive-low-cloud-dust-feedbacks-amplify-tropical-north-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1249953-positive-low-cloud-dust-feedbacks-amplify-tropical-north-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation">Positive low cloud and dust feedbacks amplify tropical North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Zelinka, Mark; ... 2016-02-04 The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is characterized by a horseshoe pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and has a wide range of climatic impacts. While the tropical arm of AMO is responsible for many of these impacts, it is either too weak or completely absent in many climate model simulations. Here we show, using both observational and model evidence, that the radiative effect of positive low cloud and dust feedbacks is strong enough to generate the tropical arm of AMO, with the low cloud feedback more dominant. The feedbacks can be understood in a consistent dynamical framework: weakened tropicalmore » trade wind speed in response to a warm middle latitude SST anomaly reduces dust loading and low cloud fraction over the tropical Atlantic, which warms the tropical North Atlantic SST. Together they contribute to the appearance of the tropical arm of AMO. Most current climate models miss both the critical wind speed response and two positive feedbacks though realistic simulations of them may be essential for many climatic studies related to the AMO.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT.......156W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011PhDT.......156W">Encouraging climate-friendly behaviors through a community energy challenge: The effects of information, feedback, and shared stories</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wolske, Kimberly S. Research suggests that changes in household behavior can play a significant role in mitigating climate change. While surveys indicate that many Americans care about climate change and believe something should be done to reduce it, a number of real and perceived barriers prevent them from acting on that concern. This research investigated two strategies to promote engagement in climate-friendly behaviors: (1) providing feedback about the positive impact of participants' energy-saving efforts on their carbon footprint; and (2) sharing stories about other participants' conservation successes. A random sample of residents in a Midwest college town were invited to participate in a month-long community Energy Challenge that asked households to try to reduce their carbon footprint by 2 percent. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: monthly feedback, weekly feedback, and weekly feedback + stories. All participants received a booklet that gave procedural guidance and estimated carbon savings for 34 behaviors related to personal transportation, household energy use, and dietary choices. In addition, all participants were asked to track their efforts in an online log. For participants in the weekly feedback conditions, these logs estimated their total carbon savings for each week of the challenge. Weekly e-mails were sent to all groups to encourage completion of the logs. For participants in the weekly feedback + stories condition, these reminders included anecdotes about other participants' conservation experiences. Overall, the results suggest that the basic format of the Energy Challenge provided a supportive setting for developing new climate-friendly behaviors and increasing existing ones. The majority of participants (78 percent), regardless of treatment condition, achieved the Energy Challenge goal, with a median carbon savings of 6 percent. For some participants, weekly feedback helped reduce perceived barriers related to driving less and the perception that conserving requires sacrifice. Participants who had less prior conservation experience as well as those who received weekly feedback were more likely to engage in a broader set of climate-friendly behaviors. Finally, results from a follow-up survey suggest that most participants maintained the behaviors they adopted one month after the Energy Challenge ended. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA43B2192W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMPA43B2192W">Communicating Climate Imperatives to the U.S. Federal Government for Applied Research Funding and Consideration in Lawmaking: What Not to Say and How Not to Say It</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wein, A. S. 2016-12-01 The Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy is the largest funder of clean energy R&D in the U.S. government with an annual budget of approximately $2 billion. While many of our employees and researchers are climate-focused, tackling climate change is not the primary or even secondary aspect of our mission, which is "to create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy." However, EERE technologies and programs tackle the three biggest carbon pollution sources in America: power generation, transportation, and energy use in homes,buildings, and manufacturing. So while climate scientists may not be EERE's biggest audience, investment in and deployment of our technologies should be seen as a primary solution to cutting domestic greenhouse gas emissions. How can climate scientists or those interested in taking actions to achieve innovative solutions to climate change, tap into this vast financial resource for research funding?During the funding application process, or while giving feedback to agencies, the first trick is to give us the information we need to answer questions from our overseers: technology managers, political appointees from friendly administrations, and members of Congress from all walks of the political spectrum who scrutinize our funding choices. The second trick is to speak our language, or present this information to us in ways we can repurpose it for the audiences to which we need to appeal. Understanding the context in which applied science programs direct R&D funding can help climate science get funded and continue to be an important consideration in decision-making in Washington. Scientists and academia must provide input and feedback to federal policy development processes if we are to act prudently on climate as a nation. Therefore, our future depends on the ability of climate scientists to effectively communicate with community leaders at all levels of U.S. government. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1229957-new-method-comparing-forcing-agents-climate-models','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1229957-new-method-comparing-forcing-agents-climate-models">A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Kravitz, Benjamin S.; MacMartin, Douglas; Rasch, Philip J. We describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2, CH4, and solar irradiance) that avoids many of the ambiguities introduced by temperature-related climate feedbacks. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to the climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global mean surface temperature constant. Compared to current approaches, this method has two main advantages: (i) the need to define radiative forcing is bypassed and (ii) by maintaining roughly constant global mean temperature, the effects of state dependence on internal feedback strengths are minimized. We demonstrate this approachmore » for several different forcing agents and derive the relationships between these forcing agents in two climate models; comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted functional forms. Transitivity of the relationships between the forcing agents appears to hold within a wide range of forcing. The relationships between the forcing agents obtained from this method are consistent across both models but differ from relationships that would be obtained from calculations of radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of controlling for surface temperature feedback effects when separating radiative forcing and climate response.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A41K3205J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A41K3205J">The highs and lows of cloud radiative feedback: Comparing observational data and CMIP5 models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jenney, A.; Randall, D. A. 2014-12-01 Clouds play a complex role in the climate system, and remain one of the more difficult aspects of the future climate to predict. Over subtropical eastern ocean basins, particularly next to California, Peru, and Southwest Africa, low marine stratocumulus clouds (MSC) help to reduce the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface by reflecting incident sunlight. The climate feedback associated with these clouds is thought to be positive. This project looks at CMIP5 models and compares them to observational data from CERES and ERA-Interim to try and find observational evidence and model agreement for low, marine stratocumulus cloud feedback. Although current evidence suggests that the low cloud feedback is positive (IPCC, 2014), an analysis of the simulated relationship between July lower tropospheric stability (LTS) and shortwave cloud forcing in MSC regions suggests that this feedback is not due to changes in LTS. IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20858255','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20858255">Educational climate seems unrelated to leadership skills of clinical consultants responsible of postgraduate medical education in clinical departments.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Malling, Bente; Mortensen, Lene S; Scherpbier, Albert J J; Ringsted, Charlotte 2010-09-21 The educational climate is crucial in postgraduate medical education. Although leaders are in the position to influence the educational climate, the relationship between leadership skills and educational climate is unknown. This study investigates the relationship between the educational climate in clinical departments and the leadership skills of clinical consultants responsible for education. The study was a trans-sectional correlation study. The educational climate was investigated by a survey among all doctors (specialists and trainees) in the departments. Leadership skills of the consultants responsible for education were measured by multi-source feedback scores from heads of departments, peer consultants, and trainees. Doctors from 42 clinical departments representing 21 specialties participated. The response rate of the educational climate investigation was moderate 52% (420/811), Response rate was high in the multisource-feedback process 84.3% (420/498). The educational climate was scored quite high mean 3.9 (SD 0.3) on a five-point Likert scale. Likewise the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for education were considered good, mean 5.4 (SD 0.6) on a seven-point Likert scale. There was no significant correlation between the scores concerning the educational climate and the scores on leadership skills, r = 0.17 (p = 0.29). This study found no relation between the educational climate and the leadership skills of the clinical consultants responsible for postgraduate medical education in clinical departments with the instruments used. Our results indicate that consultants responsible for education are in a weak position to influence the educational climate in the clinical department. Further studies are needed to explore, how heads of departments and other factors related to the clinical organisation could influence the educational climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27218','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/27218">Chapter 9: Carbon fluxes across regions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Beverly E. Law; Dave Turner; John Campbell; Michael Lefsky; Michael Guzy; Osbert Sun; Steve Van Tuyl; Warren Cohen 2006-01-01 Scaling biogeochemical processes to regions, continents, and the globe is critical for understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere in the analysis of global change. This includes the effects of changing atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, disturbances, and increasing nitrogen deposition from air pollution (Ehleringer and Field 1993, Vitousek et al.... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24343906','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24343906">Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P 2014-07-01 Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A54D..01S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A54D..01S">Aerosol-cloud interactions in Arctic mixed-phase stratocumulus</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Solomon, A. 2017-12-01 Reliable climate projections require realistic simulations of Arctic cloud feedbacks. Of particular importance is accurately simulating Arctic mixed-phase stratocumuli (AMPS), which are ubiquitous and play an important role in regional climate due to their impact on the surface energy budget and atmospheric boundary layer structure through cloud-driven turbulence, radiative forcing, and precipitation. AMPS are challenging to model due to uncertainties in ice microphysical processes that determine phase partitioning between ice and radiatively important cloud liquid water. Since temperatures in AMPS are too warm for homogenous ice nucleation, ice must form through heterogeneous nucleation. In this presentation we discuss a relatively unexplored source of ice production-recycling of ice nuclei in regions of ice subsaturation. AMPS frequently have ice-subsaturated air near the cloud-driven mixed-layer base where falling ice crystals can sublimate, leaving behind IN. This study provides an idealized framework to understand feedbacks between dynamics and microphysics that maintain phase-partitioning in AMPS. In addition, the results of this study provide insight into the mechanisms and feedbacks that may maintain cloud ice in AMPS even when entrainment of IN at the mixed-layer boundaries is weak. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840061229&hterms=taiga&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dtaiga','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19840061229&hterms=taiga&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3Dtaiga">Effects of nontropical forest cover on climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Otterman, J.; Chou, M.-D.; Arking, A. 1984-01-01 The albedo of a forest with snow on the ground is much less than that of snow-covered low vegetation such as tundra. As a result, simulation of the Northern Hemisphere climate, when fully forested south of a suitably chosen taiga/tundra boundary (ecocline), produces a hemispheric surface air temperature 1.9 K higher than that of an earth devoid of trees. Using variations of the solar constant to force climate changes in the GLAS Multi-Layer Energy Balance Model, the role of snow-albedo feedback in increasing the climate sensitivity to external perturbations is reexamined. The effect of snow-albedo feedback is found to be significantly reduced when a low albedo is used for snow over taiga, south of the fixed latitude of the ecocline. If the ecocline shifts to maintain equilibrium with the new climate - which is presumed to occur in a prolonged perturbation when time is sufficient for trees to grow or die and fall - the feedback is stronger than for a fixed ecocline, especially at high latitudes. However, this snow/vegetation-albedo feedback is still essentially weaker than the snow-albedo feedback in the forest-free case. The loss of forest to agriculture and other land-use would put the present climate further away from that associated with the fully forested earth south of the ecocline and closer to the forest-free case. Thus, the decrease in nontropical forest cover since prehistoric times has probably affected the climate by reducing the temperatures and by increasing the sensitivity to perturbations, with both effects more pronounced at high latitudes. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/9289','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/9289">Below-ground process responses to elevated CO2 and temperature: a discussion of observations, measurement methods, and models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Elise Pendall; Scott Bridgham; Paul J. Hanson; Bruce Hungate; David W. Kicklighter; Dale W. Johnson; Beverly E. Law; Yiqi Luo; J. Patrick Megonigal; Maria Olsrud; Michael G. Ryan; Shiqiang Wan 2004-01-01 Rising atmospheric CO2 and temperatures are probably altering ecosystem carbon cycling, causing both positive and negative feedbacks to climate. Below-ground processes play a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle because they regulate storage of large quantities of C, and are potentially very sensitive to direct and indirect effects of elevated... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21516892','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21516892">Effects of biotic feedback and harvest management on boreal forest fire activity under climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Krawchuk, Meg A; Cumming, Steve G 2011-01-01 Predictions of future fire activity over Canada's boreal forests have primarily been generated from climate data following assumptions that direct effects of weather will stand alone in contributing to changes in burning. However, this assumption needs explicit testing. First, areas recently burned can be less likely to burn again in the near term, and this endogenous regulation suggests the potential for self-limiting, negative biotic feedback to regional climate-driven increases in fire. Second, forest harvest is ongoing, and resulting changes in vegetation structure have been shown to affect fire activity. Consequently, we tested the assumption that fire activity will be driven by changes in fire weather without regulation by biotic feedback or regional harvest-driven changes in vegetation structure in the mixedwood boreal forest of Alberta, Canada, using a simulation experiment that includes the interaction of fire, stand dynamics, climate change, and clear cut harvest management. We found that climate change projected with fire weather indices calculated from the Canadian Regional Climate Model increased fire activity, as expected, and our simulations established evidence that the magnitude of regional increase in fire was sufficient to generate negative feedback to subsequent fire activity. We illustrate a 39% (1.39-fold) increase in fire initiation and 47% (1.47-fold) increase in area burned when climate and stand dynamics were included in simulations, yet 48% (1.48-fold) and 61% (1.61-fold) increases, respectively, when climate was considered alone. Thus, although biotic feedbacks reduced burned area estimates in important ways, they were secondary to the direct effect of climate on fire. We then show that ongoing harvest management in this region changed landscape composition in a way that led to reduced fire activity, even in the context of climate change. Although forest harvesting resulted in decreased regional fire activity when compared to unharvested conditions, forest composition and age structure was shifted substantially, illustrating a trade-off between management goals to minimize fire and conservation goals to emulate natural disturbance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5549S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5549S">Understanding, representing and communicating earth system processes in weather and climate within CNRCWP</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek; de Elia, Ramon; Déry, Stephen; Duguay, Claude; Gachon, Philippe; Gyakum, John; Laprise, René; Marshall, Shawn; Monahan, Adam; Scinocca, John; Thériault, Julie; Verseghy, Diana; Zwiers, Francis 2017-04-01 The Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) provides significant advances and innovative research towards the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in numerical weather prediction and climate projections for Canada's Northern and Arctic regions. This talk will provide an overview of the Network and selected results related to the assessment of the added value of high-resolution modelling that has helped fill critical knowledge gaps in understanding the dynamics of extreme temperature and precipitation events and the complex land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks in Canada's northern and Arctic regions. In addition, targeted developments in the Canadian regional climate model, that facilitate direct application of model outputs in impact and adaptation studies, particularly those related to the water, energy and infrastructure sectors will also be discussed. The close collaboration between the Network and its partners and end users contributed significantly to this effort. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_13");'>13</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li class="active">15</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_16" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="301"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPA42A..10W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPA42A..10W">Tiny and Hidden but Changing Your World: The Importance of Soil Microbes to Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Waldo, N.; Neumann, R. B. 2017-12-01 When most people think about global climate change they think about massive power plants billowing smoke and expansive glaciers melting to nothingness. What the public often overlooks is how natural processes invisible to the naked eye can be changed by the climate, and the fact that the natural response to those changes can further alter the climate. Scientists call these reactions "feedback cycles", and understanding them is crucial to predicting the true impact of human activities. In our research, we study one particular feedback cycle: the effect of increased plant productivity on methane emissions from wetlands. Globally, wetlands account for about a third of annual emissions of methane, the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. This heat-trapping gas is generated in the soil of wetlands by microscopic organisms that consume, among other things, proteins and sugars released by the roots of plants. As the atmosphere becomes warmer and richer in carbon dioxide, these plants will grow larger and faster, releasing more of this microbe food into the soil. Our current research seeks to understand how that will affect the microbial ecosystem, and through it the emissions of methane gas. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.5533H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.5533H">How well do simulated last glacial maximum tropical temperatures constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J. 2015-07-01 Previous work demonstrated a significant correlation between tropical surface air temperature and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in PMIP (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) phase 2 model simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM). This implies that reconstructed LGM cooling in this region could provide information about the climate system ECS value. We analyze results from new simulations of the LGM performed as part of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and PMIP phase 3. These results show no consistent relationship between the LGM tropical cooling and ECS. A radiative forcing and feedback analysis shows that a number of factors are responsible for this decoupling, some of which are related to vegetation and aerosol feedbacks. While several of the processes identified are LGM specific and do not impact on elevated CO2 simulations, this analysis demonstrates one area where the newer CMIP5 models behave in a qualitatively different manner compared with the older ensemble. The results imply that so-called Earth System components such as vegetation and aerosols can have a significant impact on the climate response in LGM simulations, and this should be taken into account in future analyses. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816251A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..1816251A">Land-Climate Feedbacks in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Asharaf, Shakeel; Ahrens, Bodo 2016-04-01 In an attempt to identify how land surface states such as soil moisture influence the monsoonal precipitation climate over India, a series of numerical simulations including soil moisture sensitivity experiments was performed. The simulations were conducted with a nonhydrostatic regional climate model (RCM), the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) in climate mode (CCLM) model, which was driven by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. Results showed that pre-monsoonal soil moisture has a significant impact on monsoonal precipitation formation and large-scale atmospheric circulations. The analysis revealed that even a small change in the processes that influence precipitation via changes in local evapotranspiration was able to trigger significant variations in regional soil moisture-precipitation feedback. It was observed that these processes varied spatially from humid to arid regions in India, which further motivated an examination of soil-moisture memory variation over these regions and determination of the ISM seasonal forecasting potential. A quantitative analysis indicated that the simulated soil-moisture memory lengths increased with soil depth and were longer in the western region than those in the eastern region of India. Additionally, the subsequent precipitation variance explained by soil moisture increased from east to west. The ISM rainfall was further analyzed in two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios: the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES: B1) and the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs: RCP4.5). To that end, the CCLM and its driving global-coupled atmospheric-oceanic model (GCM), ECHAM/MPIOM were used in order to understand the driving processes of the projected inter-annual precipitation variability and associated trends. Results inferred that the projected rainfall changes were the result of two largely compensating processes: increase of remotely induced precipitation and decrease of precipitation efficiency. However, the complementing precipitation components and their simulation uncertainties rendered climate projections of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall as an ongoing, highly ambiguous challenge for both the GCM and the RCM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5897823','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5897823">Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke 2018-01-01 This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610382 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610382','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610382">Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Seneviratne, Sonia I; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P; Hirsch, Annette L; Vogel, Martha M; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke 2018-05-13 This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25359630','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25359630">Development and psychometric testing of an instrument to measure safety climate perceptions in community pharmacy.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Newham, Rosemary; Bennie, Marion; Maxwell, David; Watson, Anne; de Wet, Carl; Bowie, Paul 2014-12-01 A positive and strong safety culture underpins effective learning from patient safety incidents in health care, including the community pharmacy (CP) setting. To build this culture, perceptions of safety climate must be measured with context-specific and reliable instruments. No pre-existing instruments were specifically designed or suitable for CP within Scotland. We therefore aimed to develop a psychometrically sound instrument to measure perceptions of safety climate within Scottish CPs. The first stage, development of a preliminary instrument, comprised three steps: (i) a literature review; (ii) focus group feedback; and (iii) content validation. The second stage, psychometric testing, consisted of three further steps: (iv) a pilot survey; (v) a survey of all CP staff within a single health board in NHS Scotland; and (vi) application of statistical methods, including principal components analysis and calculation of Cronbach's reliability coefficients, to derive the final instrument. The preliminary questionnaire was developed through a process of literature review and feedback. This questionnaire was completed by staff in 50 CPs from the 131 (38%) sampled. 250 completed questionnaires were suitable for analysis. Psychometric evaluation resulted in a 30-item instrument with five positively correlated safety climate factors: leadership, teamwork, safety systems, communication and working conditions. Reliability coefficients were satisfactory for the safety climate factors (α > 0.7) and overall (α = 0.93). The robust nature of the technical design and testing process has resulted in the development of an instrument with sufficient psychometric properties, which can be implemented in the community pharmacy setting in NHS Scotland. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37660450S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37660450S">Climate extremes, land-climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Wartenburger, Richard; Guillod, Benoit P.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Vogel, Martha M.; Brovkin, Victor; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Schaller, Nathalie; Boysen, Lena; Calvin, Katherine V.; Doelman, Jonathan; Greve, Peter; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Krisztin, Tamas; Mitchell, Daniel; Popp, Alexander; Riahi, Keywan; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Sillmann, Jana; Stehfest, Elke 2018-05-01 This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. We provide new comparisons of changes in climate at 1.5°C versus 2°C based on empirical sampling analyses of transient simulations versus simulations from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) multi-model experiment. The two approaches yield similar overall results regarding changes in climate extremes on land, and reveal a substantial difference in the occurrence of regional extremes at 1.5°C versus 2°C. Land processes mediated through soil moisture feedbacks and land-use forcing play a major role for projected changes in extremes at 1.5°C in most mid-latitude regions, including densely populated areas in North America, Europe and Asia. This has important implications for low-emissions scenarios derived from integrated assessment models (IAMs), which include major LUCs in ambitious mitigation pathways (e.g. associated with increased bioenergy use), but are also shown to differ in the simulated LUC patterns. Biogeophysical effects from LUCs are not considered in the development of IAM scenarios, but play an important role for projected regional changes in climate extremes, and are thus of high relevance for sustainable development pathways. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.P31D2085A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.P31D2085A">A proposal for climate stability on H2-greenhouse planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Abbot, D. S. 2015-12-01 A terrestrial planet in an orbit far outside of the standard habitable zone could maintain surface liquid water as a result of H2-H2 collision-induced absorption by a thick H2 atmosphere. Without a stabilizing climate feedback, however, habitability would be accidental and likely brief. We propose a stabilizing climate feedback for such a planet that requires only biological production of H2 to balance net loss to space that has some optimal temperature, and operates less efficiently at higher temperatures. A stable feedback is possible on such a planet through which a perturbation increasing temperature decreases H2 production, which decreases H2 greenhouse warming and therefore temperature. The potential of such a feedback makes H2-warmed planets more attractive astrobiological targets. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27081764','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27081764">Persistent high temperature and low precipitation reduce peat carbon accumulation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bragazza, Luca; Buttler, Alexandre; Robroek, Bjorn J M; Albrecht, Remy; Zaccone, Claudio; Jassey, Vincent E J; Signarbieux, Constant 2016-12-01 Extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent and intense. Their ecological impacts, particularly on carbon cycling, can differ in relation to ecosystem sensitivity. Peatlands, being characterized by peat accumulation under waterlogged conditions, can be particularly sensitive to climate extremes if the climate event increases soil oxygenation. However, a mechanistic understanding of peatland responses to persistent climate extremes is still lacking, particularly in terms of aboveground-belowground feedback. Here, we present the results of a transplantation experiment of peat mesocosms from high to low altitude in order to simulate, during 3 years, a mean annual temperature c. 5 °C higher and a mean annual precipitation c. 60% lower. Specifically, we aim at understanding the intensity of changes for a set of biogeochemical processes and their feedback on carbon accumulation. In the transplanted mesocosms, plant productivity showed a species-specific response depending on plant growth forms, with a significant decrease (c. 60%) in peat moss productivity. Soil respiration almost doubled and Q 10 halved in the transplanted mesocosms in combination with an increase in activity of soil enzymes. Spectroscopic characterization of peat chemistry in the transplanted mesocosms confirmed the deepening of soil oxygenation which, in turn, stimulated microbial decomposition. After 3 years, soil carbon stock increased only in the control mesocosms whereas a reduction in mean annual carbon accumulation of c. 30% was observed in the transplanted mesocosms. Based on the above information, a structural equation model was built to provide a mechanistic understanding of the causal connections between peat moisture, vegetation response, soil respiration and carbon accumulation. This study identifies, in the feedback between plant and microbial responses, the primary pathways explaining the reduction in carbon accumulation in response to recurring climate extremes in peat soils. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23389542','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23389542">Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E 2013-02-07 According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017170','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19940017170">Climsat rationale</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Hansen, James 1993-01-01 We summarize reasons for the Climsat proposition; we also stress the need for certain climate monitoring other than that supplied by Climsat, especially solar irradiance, and we stress the complementarity of Climsat monitoring to plans for detailed EOS measurements. Existing and planned observations will not provide measurements of most climate forcing and feedback parameters with the accuracy needed to measure plausible decadal changes. Stratospheric water vapor and aerosol requirements are not met, for example, even though the present SAGE II instrument on the ERBS spacecraft measures those two parameters accurately, because ERBS is not expected to last more than a few years and it does not provide global coverage. We stress the imminence of a potential data gap even of those parameters, such as solar irradiance and stratospheric aerosols, for which monitoring capability has been proven and currently is in place. We find that most of the missing global climate forcings and feedbacks can be measured by three small instruments, which would need to be deployed on two spacecraft to obtain adequate sampling and global coverage. The monitoring must be maintained continuously for at least two decades. Such continuity can be attained by replacing a satellite after it fails, the functioning satellite providing calibration transfer to the new satellite. Certain complementary monitoring data are also needed, including solar monitoring from space, in order to fully meet requirements for monitoring all the climate forcings and feedbacks. The complementary data needs are discussed toward the end of this section. We summarize the proposed Climsat measurements and compare the expected accuracies to those which are needed to analyze changes of the global thermal energy cycle on decadal time scales. We stress the need to get broader participation of the scientific community in the monitoring and analysis activity. Finally, we discuss related climate process and diagnostic measurements. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5902D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016EGUGA..18.5902D">Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander 2016-04-01 Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.474...97C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017E%26PSL.474...97C">A warm or a cold early Earth? New insights from a 3-D climate-carbon model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Charnay, Benjamin; Le Hir, Guillaume; Fluteau, Frédéric; Forget, François; Catling, David C. 2017-09-01 Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60 °C (333 K) and 80 °C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The interpretation of the data has therefore been controversial. 1D climate modeling inferred that such hot climates would require very high levels of CO2 (2-6 bars). Previous carbon cycle modeling concluded that such stable hot climates were impossible and that the carbon cycle should lead to cold climates during the Hadean and the Archean. Here, we revisit the climate and carbon cycle of the early Earth at 3.8 Ga using a 3D climate-carbon model. We find that CO2 partial pressures of around 1 bar could have produced hot climates given a low land fraction and cloud feedback effects. However, such high CO2 partial pressures should not have been stable because of the weathering of terrestrial and oceanic basalts, producing an efficient stabilizing feedback. Moreover, the weathering of impact ejecta during the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB) would have strongly reduced the CO2 partial pressure leading to cold climates and potentially snowball Earth events after large impacts. Our results therefore favor cold or temperate climates with global mean temperatures between around 8 °C (281 K) and 30 °C (303 K) and with 0.1-0.36 bar of CO2 for the late Hadean and early Archean. Finally, our model suggests that the carbon cycle was efficient for preserving clement conditions on the early Earth without necessarily requiring any other greenhouse gas or warming process. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7a1005L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ERL.....7a1005L">Shrub expansion and climate feedbacks in Arctic tundra</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Loranty, Michael M.; Goetz, Scott J. 2012-03-01 Arctic tundra ecosystems stand to play a substantial role in both the magnitude and rate of global climate warming over the coming decades and centuries. The exact nature of this role will be determined by the combined effects of currently amplified rates of climate warming in the Arctic (Serreze et al 2000) and a series of related positive climate feedbacks that include mobilization of permafrost carbon (Schuur et al 2008), decreases in surface albedo (Chapin et al 2005) and evapotranspiration (ET) mediated increases in atmospheric water vapor (Swann et al 2010). Conceptually, these feedback mechanisms are intuitive and readily comprehensible: warming-induced permafrost thaw will make new soil carbon pools accessible for microbial respiration, and increased vegetation productivity, expansion of shrubs in particular, will lower surface reflectance and increase ET. However, our current understanding of these feedback mechanisms relies largely on limited and local field studies and, as such, the quantitative estimates of feedback effects on regional and global climate require spatial upscaling and uncertainty estimates derived from models. Moreover, the feedback mechanisms interact and their combined net effect on climate is highly variable and not well characterized. A recent study by Bonfils et al (2012) is among the first to explicitly examine how shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems will impact regional climate. Using an Earth system model, Bonfils et al find that an idealized 20% increase in shrub cover north of 60°N latitude will lead to annual temperature increases of 0.66 °C and 1.84 °C, respectively, when the shrubs are 0.5 m and 2 m tall. The modeled temperature increases arise from atmospheric heating as a combined consequence of decreased albedo and increased ET. The primary difference between the two cases is associated with the fact that tall shrubs protrude above the snow, thus reducing albedo year round, whereas short shrubs are completely covered by the snowpack for part of the year. These results support evidence that shrub expansion in Arctic tundra will feed back positively to ongoing climate warming but, perhaps more importantly, illustrate the significance of shrub height in dictating the feedback strength. While differences in albedo associated with vegetation stature have been previously documented in these ecosystems (Loranty et al 2011, Sturm et al 2005a), the magnitudes of the feedbacks on regional climate were unknown. These findings highlight a pressing need to understand the rate and spatial extent at which shrub expansion is occurring. While increases in vegetation productivity inferred from satellite data have been observed across the Arctic (Bunn and Goetz 2006, Goetz et al 2005, Walker et al 2009), recent analyses suggest that the observed trends are a result of general increases in productivity across all vegetation types (Beck and Goetz 2011). Another important finding reported by Bonfils et al (2012) is the positive correlation between shrub height and modeled active layer depth (i.e. permafrost thaw). Results from a field study (Blok et al 2010) showed that the shading effects of shrub canopies reduce ground heat flux, which in turn leads to a decrease in active layer depth. Bonfils et al's (2012) results indicate that regional warming as a consequence of albedo and ET feedbacks will offset the local cooling effects of increased shrub cover, thus the net climate feedback associated with shrub expansion could be greater than reported (owing to biogeochemical processes and related feedbacks). A similar study by Lawrence and Swenson (2011) found that snow redistribution to shrub covered areas (Sturm et al 2005b) simultaneously reduced the albedo feedback by covering shrubs with snow and introduced a soil warming feedback through insulation provided by additional snow cover, with a net result of increased active layer depth under shrubs. When shrub cover (1 m tall canopy) was increased by 20% and less snow was available for redistribution over a greater shrub covered area, the insulation effect was not great enough to offset the reduction in albedo, thus on average the effect of shrub cover on active layer depth was negligible. These results underscore the importance of shrub height, shrub cover and snow depth when considering how shrub expansion will influence net feedbacks to climate. Uncertainties regarding the interacting effects of snow redistribution and albedo feedbacks on active layer depth make it difficult to predict how shrub expansion may ultimately mediate permafrost feedbacks to climate on annual to decadal timescales. Although both Bonfils et al (2012) and Lawrence and Swenson (2011) provide strong evidence that the albedo and ET feedbacks associated with a 20% increase in shrub cover, relative to the current distribution, will result in warming that more than offsets local cooling, the effects of a 5% or 10% increase in shrub cover are less clear. For example, it may be reasonable to assume that a 20% increase in shrub cover over the next 100 years will lead to a 1.84 °C regional temperature increase and, consequently, substantial permafrost thaw. But will a 0.46 °C increase over the next 25 years with a 5% increase in shrub cover significantly increase the active layer depth or melt permafrost? The regional warming associated with a 5% increase in shrub cover may not be strong enough to counteract the local cooling effects of shrubs (Blok et al 2010), in which case increased shrub cover could serve as a negative feedback to permafrost thaw in the near term, retarding the process, or even promoting permafrost aggradation. On the other hand, it is possible that the greater snow redistribution that would occur with less shrub cover (Lawrence and Swenson 2011) could lead to higher rates of winter warming that would offset the local cooling effects caused by shading during the growing season, thereby acting as a positive feedback to permafrost thaw. These feedbacks could either mitigate or exacerbate permafrost degradation associated with ongoing climate warming; thus research on this subject is essential and timely given the rates of shrub cover change documented by historical photographs (Tape et al 2006) and satellite imagery (Forbes et al 2010). A complete understanding of the net climate feedback effects of shrub expansion in Arctic tundra will require improved knowledge of the factors controlling shrub distribution and the associated vegetation structure influences on the redistribution of snow. A recent synthesis highlights the myriad complex and interacting factors that are likely to govern shrub expansion, which include recruitment and dispersal mechanisms, species differences, topo-edaphic factors, and the role of disturbance and biotic interactions (Myers-Smith et al 2011). In the context of understanding climate feedbacks, it is imperative that future studies distinguish between instances of shrub expansion that include an increase in canopy height or extent that is biophysically relevant. Increased effort is needed to understand snow-shrub interactions in the context of surface energy fluxes. This level of detail is necessary for accurate prediction of the rate and magnitude of shrub mediated climate feedbacks in the Arctic. Acknowledgment We thank Ken Tape for insightful discussion that helped to improve this manuscript. References Beck P S A and Goetz S G 2011 Satellite observations of high northern latitude vegetation productivity changes between 1982 and 2008: ecological variability and regional differences Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045501 Blok D, Heijmans M, Schaepman-Strub G, Kononov A, Maximov T and Berendse F 2010 Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw in Siberian tundra Glob. Change Biol. 16 1296-305 Bonfils C J W, Phillips T J, Lawrence D M, Cameron-Smith P, Riley W J and Subin Z M 2012 On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate Environ. Res. Lett. 7 015503 Bunn A G and Goetz S J 2006 Trends in satellite-observed circumpolar photosynthetic activity from 1982 to 2003: the influence of seasonality, cover type, and vegetation density Earth Interact. 10 12 Chapin F et al 2005 Role of land-surface changes in Arctic summer warming Science 310 657 Forbes B C, Fauria M M and Zetterberg P 2010 Russian Arctic warming and greening are closely tracked by tundra shrub willows Glob. Change Biol. 16 1542-54 Goetz S J, Bunn A G, Fiske G and Houghton R 2005 Satellite-observed photosynthetic trends across boreal North America associated with climate and fire disturbance Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102 13521-5 Lawrence D M and Swenson S C 2011 Permafrost response to increasing Arctic shrub abundance depends on the relative influence of shrubs on local soil cooling versus large-scale climate warming Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045504 Loranty M M, Goetz S J and Beck P S A 2011 Tundra vegetation effects on pan-Arctic albedo Environ. Res. Lett. 6 024014 Myers-Smith I H et al 2011 Shrub expansion in tundra ecosystems: dynamics, impacts and research priorities Environ. Res. Lett. 6 045509 Schuur E et al 2008 Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle BioScience 58 701-14 Serreze M, Walsh J, Chapin F, Osterkamp T, Dyurgerov M, Romanovsky V, Oechel W, Morison J, Zhang T and Barry R 2000 Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment Clim. Change 46 159-207 Sturm M, Douglas T, Racine C and Liston G 2005a Changing snow and shrub conditions affect albedo with global implications J. Geophys. Res. 110 G01004 Sturm M, Schimel J, Michaelson G and Welker J M 2005b Winter biological processes could help convert Arctic tundra to shrubland BioScience 55 17-26 Swann A L, Fung I Y, Levis S, Bonan G B and Doney S C 2010 Changes in Arctic vegetation amplify high-latitude warming through the greenhouse effect Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 107 1295-300 Tape K, Sturm M and Racine C 2006 The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic Glob. Change Biol. 12 686-702 Walker D, Leibman M, Epstein H, Forbes B, Bhatt U, Raynolds M, Comiso J, Gubarkov A, Khomutov A and Jia G 2009 Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index Environ. Res. Lett. 4 045004 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5832W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5832W">Bjerknes Compensation in Meridional Heat Transport under Freshwater Forcing and the Role of Climate Feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wen, Qin 2017-04-01 Using a coupled Earth climate model, freshwater experiments are performed to study the Bjerknes compensation (BJC) between meridional atmosphere heat transport (AHT) and meridional ocean heat transport (OHT). Freshwater hosing in the North Atlantic weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and thus reduces the northward OHT in the Atlantic significantly, leading to a cooling (warming) in surface layer in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. This results in an enhanced Hadley Cell and northward AHT. Meanwhile, the OHT in the Indo-Pacific is increased in response to the Hadley Cell change, partially offsetting the reduced OHT in the Atlantic. Two compensations occur here: compensation between the AHT and the Atlantic OHT, and that between the Indo-Pacific OHT and the Atlantic OHT. The AHT change compensates the OHT change very well in the extratropics, while the former overcompensates the latter in the tropics due to the Indo-Pacific change. The BJC can be understood from the viewpoint of large-scale circulation change. However, the intrinsic mechanism of BJC is related to the climate feedback of Earth system. Our coupled model experiments confirm that the occurrence of BJC is an intrinsic requirement of local energy balance, and local climate feedback determines the extent of BJC, consistent with previous theoretical results. Even during the transient period of climate change in the model, the BJC is well established when the ocean heat storage is slowly varying and its change is weaker than the net heat flux changes at the ocean surface and the top of the atmosphere. The BJC can be deduced from the local climate feedback. Under the freshwater forcing, the overcompensation in the tropics (undercompensation in the extratropics) is mainly caused by the positive longwave feedback related to cloud (negative longwave feedback related to surface temperature change). Different dominant feedbacks determine different BJC scenarios in different regions, which are in essence constrained by local energy balance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUSM.A51F..07W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2002AGUSM.A51F..07W">Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Studies: SOLAS</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wanninkhof, R.; Dickerson, R.; Barber, R.; Capone, D. G.; Duce, R.; Erickson, D.; Keene, W. C.; Lenschow, D.; Matrai, P. A.; McGillis, W.; McGillicuddy, D.; Penner, J.; Pszenny, A. 2002-05-01 The US Surface Ocean - Lower Atmosphere Study (US SOLAS) is a component of an international program (SOLAS) with an overall goal: to achieve a quantitative understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, and of how this coupled system affects and is affected by climateand environmental change. There is increasing evidence that the biogeochemical cycles containing the building blocks of life such as carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur have been perturbed. These changes result in appreciable impacts and feedbacks in the SOLA region. The exact nature of the impacts and feedbacks are poorly constrained because of sparse observations, in particular relating to the connectivity and interrelationships between the major biogeochemical cycles and their interaction with physical forcing. It is in these areas that the research and the interdisciplinary research approaches advocated in US SOLAS will provide high returns. The research in US SOLAS will be heavily focused on process studies of the natural variability of key processes, anthropogenic perturbation of the processes, and the positive and negative feedbacks the processes will have on the biogeochemical cycles in the SOLA region. A major objective is to integrate the process study findings with the results from large-scale observations and with small and large- scale modeling and remote sensing efforts to improve our mechanistic understanding of large scale biogeochemical and physical phenomena and feedbacks. US SOLAS held an open workshop in May 2001 to lay the groundwork for the SOLAS program in the United States. Resulting highlights and issues will be summarized around 4 major themes: (1) Boundary-layer Physics, (2) Dynamics of long-lived climate relevant compounds, (3) Dynamics of short-lived climate relevant compounds, and (4) Atmospheric effects on marine biogeochemical processes. Comprehensive reports from the working groups of U.S. SOLAS, and the international science plan which served as overall guidance, can be found at We will explore possible dedicated, interdisciplinary ocean-atmosphere projects as examples of the critical interconnectivity of atmospheric, interfacial, and upper ocean processes to study phenomena of critical importance in understanding the earth's system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009GBioC..23.4013B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009GBioC..23.4013B">Process-based modeling of silicate mineral weathering responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Banwart, Steven A.; Berg, Astrid; Beerling, David J. 2009-12-01 A mathematical model describes silicate mineral weathering processes in modern soils located in the boreal coniferous region of northern Europe. The process model results demonstrate a stabilizing biological feedback mechanism between atmospheric CO2 levels and silicate weathering rates as is generally postulated for atmospheric evolution. The process model feedback response agrees within a factor of 2 of that calculated by a weathering feedback function of the type generally employed in global geochemical carbon cycle models of the Earth's Phanerozoic CO2 history. Sensitivity analysis of parameter values in the process model provides insight into the key mechanisms that influence the strength of the biological feedback to weathering. First, the process model accounts for the alkalinity released by weathering, whereby its acceleration stabilizes pH at values that are higher than expected. Although the process model yields faster weathering with increasing temperature, because of activation energy effects on mineral dissolution kinetics at warmer temperature, the mineral dissolution rate laws utilized in the process model also result in lower dissolution rates at higher pH values. Hence, as dissolution rates increase under warmer conditions, more alkalinity is released by the weathering reaction, helping maintain higher pH values thus stabilizing the weathering rate. Second, the process model yields a relatively low sensitivity of soil pH to increasing plant productivity. This is due to more rapid decomposition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) under warmer conditions. Because DOC fluxes strongly influence the soil water proton balance and pH, this increased decomposition rate dampens the feedback between productivity and weathering. The process model is most sensitive to parameters reflecting soil structure; depth, porosity, and water content. This suggests that the role of biota to influence these characteristics of the weathering profile is as important, if not more important, than the role of biota to influence mineral dissolution rates through changes in soil water chemistry. This process-modeling approach to quantify the biological weathering feedback to atmospheric CO2 demonstrates the potential for a far more mechanistic description of weathering feedback in simulations of the global geochemical carbon cycle. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A14F..01S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A14F..01S">High-resolution RCMs as pioneers for future GCMs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schar, C.; Ban, N.; Arteaga, A.; Charpilloz, C.; Di Girolamo, S.; Fuhrer, O.; Hoefler, T.; Leutwyler, D.; Lüthi, D.; Piaget, N.; Ruedisuehli, S.; Schlemmer, L.; Schulthess, T. C.; Wernli, H. 2017-12-01 Currently large efforts are underway to refine the horizontal resolution of global and regional climate models to O(1 km), with the intent to represent convective clouds explicitly rather than using semi-empirical parameterizations. This refinement will move the governing equations closer to first principles and is expected to reduce the uncertainties of climate models. High resolution is particularly attractive in order to better represent critical cloud feedback processes (e.g. related to global climate sensitivity and extratropical summer convection) and extreme events (such as heavy precipitation events, floods, and hurricanes). The presentation will be illustrated using decade-long simulations at 2 km horizontal grid spacing, some of these covering the European continent on a computational mesh with 1536x1536x60 grid points. To accomplish such simulations, use is made of emerging heterogeneous supercomputing architectures, using a version of the COSMO limited-area weather and climate model that is able to run entirely on GPUs. Results show that kilometer-scale resolution dramatically improves the simulation of precipitation in terms of the diurnal cycle and short-term extremes. The modeling framework is used to address changes of precipitation scaling with climate change. It is argued that already today, modern supercomputers would in principle enable global atmospheric convection-resolving climate simulations, provided appropriately refactored codes were available, and provided solutions were found to cope with the rapidly growing output volume. A discussion will be provided of key challenges affecting the design of future high-resolution climate models. It is suggested that km-scale RCMs should be exploited to pioneer this terrain, at a time when GCMs are not yet available at such resolutions. Areas of interest include the development of new parameterization schemes adequate for km-scale resolution, the exploration of new validation methodologies and data sets, the assessment of regional-scale climate feedback processes, and the development of alternative output analysis methodologies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMEP43E..01M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMEP43E..01M">Late Quaternary landscape evolution, climate, and neotectonism along the eastern margin of the Puna Plateau: Pucará Valley, NW Argentina</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> McCarthy, J. A.; Schoenbohm, L. M.; Bierman, P. R.; Rood, D. H. 2013-12-01 The eastern margin of the Puna Plateau has been the focus of many studies seeking to link climatically-moderated surface processes and tectonism through dynamic feedbacks. However, evaluating any theories regarding climatic-tectonic feedbacks requires the determination of tectonic, climatic, and geomorphic chronologies across a wide region, from plateau to wedge-top to foreland. In this study, we contribute to that effort by examining Quaternary landscape evolution of a single intermontane basin of spatially uniform climate, adjacent to the plateau margin. The semi-arid Pucará Valley contains eight abandoned and incised geomorphic surfaces, most of which are deformed by active structures. These geomorphic surfaces - thin alluvial fans and strath terraces - dominate the landscape and record multiple pulses of incision in the late Quaternary. We find no evidence for significant depositional intervals and valley incision continues currently. Substantial accumulations of pedogenic carbonate and pedogenic gypsum within abandoned surfaces indicate that arid or semi-arid conditions are long lived in this valley. Conversely, relict periglacial morphology in adjacent ranges supports cooler temperatures in the past. River incision is enhanced across active structures, but preliminary observations suggest that the magnitude of deformation cannot fully explain the magnitude of incision. As a result, we argue that extrabasinal base-level lowering is the primary driver of incision in the Pucará Valley, but Quaternary deformation is significant enough to spatially influence erosion. Cooler climatic intervals may influence the sedimentology of alluvial and fluvial deposits, but we find no evidence for significant climatic changes that could change rates or styles of landscape evolution over this time frame. Pending cosmogenic nuclide analysis of fan deposits and river sediments will permit the derivation of fault slip rates, surface ages, modern and paleo-erosion rates, and sediment transport histories. These results will further refine our understanding of tectonic and climatic forcing of surface processes in the Quaternary. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1402541-low-cloud-feedbacks-from-cloud-controlling-factors-review','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1402541-low-cloud-feedbacks-from-cloud-controlling-factors-review">Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Joel R.; ... 2017-10-24 Here, the response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming,more » one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m –2 K –1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_14");'>14</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li class="active">16</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_17" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="321"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1402541-low-cloud-feedbacks-from-cloud-controlling-factors-review','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1402541-low-cloud-feedbacks-from-cloud-controlling-factors-review">Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Klein, Stephen A.; Hall, Alex; Norris, Joel R. Here, the response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming,more » one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m –2 K –1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900018972','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19900018972">Cirrus clouds and climate feedback: Is the sky falling and should we go tell the king</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Stephens, Graeme L. 1990-01-01 It is widely believed that thin cirrus clouds act to enhance the greenhouse effect owing to a particular combination of their optical properties. It is demonstrated how this effect is perhaps based on inadequate resolution of the physics of cirrus clouds and that the more likely impact of cirrus clouds to climate change remains somewhat elusive. These conclusions are developed within the context of a specific feedback mechanism incorporated into a simple mechanistic climate model. A specific scientific question addressed is whether or not the observed relationship between the ice water content and temperature of cirrus provides any significant feedback to the CO2 greenhouse warming. A related question also examined concerns the specific role of cloud microphysics and radiation in this feedback. This raises several pertinent issues about the understanding of cirrus clouds and their likely role in climate change as there presently exists a considerable uncertainty about the microphysics of these clouds (size and shape of ice crystals) and their radiative influences. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25581578','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25581578">The role of vegetation-microclimate feedback in promoting shrub encroachment in the northern Chihuahuan desert.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> He, Yufei; D'Odorico, Paolo; De Wekker, Stephan F J 2015-06-01 Many arid and semi-arid landscapes around the world are affected by a shift from grassland to shrubland vegetation, presumably induced by climate warming, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and/or changing land use. This major change in vegetation cover is likely sustained by positive feedbacks with the physical environment. Recent research has focused on a feedback with microclimate, whereby cold intolerant shrubs increase the minimum nocturnal temperatures in their surroundings. Despite the rich literature on the impact of land cover change on local climate conditions, changes in microclimate resulting from shrub expansion into desert grasslands have remained poorly investigated. It is unclear to what extent such a feedback can affect the maximum extent of shrub expansion and the configuration of a stable encroachment front. Here, we focus on the case of the northern Chihuahuan desert, where creosotebush (Larrea tridentata) has been replacing grasslands over the past 100-150 years. We use a process-based coupled atmosphere-vegetation model to investigate the role of this feedback in sustaining shrub encroachment in the region. Simulations indicate that the feedback allows juvenile shrubs to establish in the grassland during average years and, once established, reduce their vulnerability to freeze-induced mortality by creating a warmer microclimate. Such a feedback is crucial in extreme cold winters as it may reduce shrub mortality. We identify the existence of a critical zone in the surroundings of the encroachment front, in which vegetation dynamics are bistable: in this zone, vegetation can be stable both as grassland and as shrubland. The existence of these alternative stable states explains why in most cases the shift from grass to shrub cover is found to be abrupt and often difficult to revert. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21299824','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21299824">A global experiment suggests climate warming will not accelerate litter decomposition in streams but might reduce carbon sequestration.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Boyero, Luz; Pearson, Richard G; Gessner, Mark O; Barmuta, Leon A; Ferreira, Verónica; Graça, Manuel A S; Dudgeon, David; Boulton, Andrew J; Callisto, Marcos; Chauvet, Eric; Helson, Julie E; Bruder, Andreas; Albariño, Ricardo J; Yule, Catherine M; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Davies, Judy N; Figueroa, Ricardo; Flecker, Alexander S; Ramírez, Alonso; Death, Russell G; Iwata, Tomoya; Mathooko, Jude M; Mathuriau, Catherine; Gonçalves, José F; Moretti, Marcelo S; Jinggut, Tajang; Lamothe, Sylvain; M'Erimba, Charles; Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Schindler, Markus H; Castela, José; Buria, Leonardo M; Cornejo, Aydeé; Villanueva, Verónica D; West, Derek C 2011-03-01 The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3116L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JGRD..123.3116L">Characterization of Wildfire-Induced Aerosol Emissions From the Maritime Continent Peatland and Central African Dry Savannah with MISR and CALIPSO Aerosol Products</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, Huikyo; Jeong, Su-Jong; Kalashnikova, Olga; Tosca, Mika; Kim, Sang-Woo; Kug, Jong-Seong 2018-03-01 Aerosol plumes from wildfires affect the Earth's climate system through regulation of the radiative budget and clouds. However, optical properties of aerosols from individual wildfire smoke plumes and their resultant impact on regional climate are highly variable. Therefore, there is a critical need for observations that can constrain the partitioning between different types of aerosols. Here we present the apparent influence of regional ecosystem types on optical properties of wildfire-induced aerosols based on remote sensing observations from two satellite instruments and three ground stations. The independent observations commonly show that the ratio of the absorbing aerosols is significantly lower in smoke plumes from the Maritime Continent than those from Central Africa, so that their impacts on regional climate are different. The observed light-absorbing properties of wildfire-induced aerosols are explained by dominant ecosystem types such as wet peatlands for the Maritime Continent and dry savannah for Central Africa, respectively. These results suggest that the wildfire-aerosol-climate feedback processes largely depend on the terrestrial environments from which the fires originate. These feedbacks also interact with climate under greenhouse warming. Our analysis shows that aerosol optical properties retrieved based on satellite observations are critical in assessing wildfire-induced aerosols forcing in climate models. The optical properties of carbonaceous aerosol mixtures used by state-of-the-art chemistry climate models may overestimate emissions for absorbing aerosols from wildfires over the Maritime Continent. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765048','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765048">Sensible heat has significantly affected the global hydrological cycle over the historical period.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Myhre, G; Samset, B H; Hodnebrog, Ø; Andrews, T; Boucher, O; Faluvegi, G; Fläschner, D; Forster, P M; Kasoar, M; Kharin, V; Kirkevåg, A; Lamarque, J-F; Olivié, D; Richardson, T B; Shawki, D; Shindell, D; Shine, K P; Stjern, C W; Takemura, T; Voulgarakis, A 2018-05-15 Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A51N..07W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A51N..07W">Radiative and Dynamical Feedbacks Limit the Climate Response to Extremely Large Volcanic Eruptions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wade, D. C.; Vidal, C. M.; Keeble, J. M.; Griffiths, P. T.; Archibald, A. T. 2017-12-01 Explosive volcanic eruptions are a major cause of chemical and climatic perturbations to the atmosphere, injecting chemically and radiatively active species such as sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere. The rate determining step for sulfate aerosol production is SO2 + OH +M → HSO3 +M. This means that chemical feedbacks on the hydroxyl radical, OH, can modulate the production rate of sulfate aerosol and hence the climate effects of large volcanic eruptions. Radiative feedbacks due to aerosols, ozone and sulfur dioxide and subsequent dynamical changes also affect the evolution of the aerosol cloud. Here we assess the role of radiative and chemical feedbacks on sulfate aerosol production using UM-UKCA, a chemistry-climate model coupled to GLOMAP, a prognostic modal aerosol model. A 200 Tg (10x Pinatubo) emission scenario is investigated. Accounting for radiative feedbacks, the SO2 lifetime is 55 days compared to 26 days in the baseline 20 Tg (1x Pinatubo) simulation. By contrast, if all radiative feedbacks are neglected the lifetime is 73 days. Including radiative feedbacks reduces the SO2 lifetime: heating of the lower stratosphere by aerosol increases upwelling and increases transport of water vapour across the tropopause, increasing OH concentrations. The maximum effective radius of the aerosol particles increases from 1.09 µm to 1.34 µm as the production of aerosol is quicker. Larger and fewer aerosol particles are produced which are less effective at scattering shortwave radiation and will more quickly sediment from the stratosphere. As a result, the resulting climate cooling by the eruption will be less strong when accounting for these radiative feedbacks. We illustrate the consequences of these effects for the 1257 Samalas eruption, the largest common era volcanic eruption, using UM-UKCA in a coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration. As a potentially halogen rich eruption, we investigate the differing ozone response to halogen-rich and halogen-poor eruption scenarios against a pre-industrial baseline climate. This has important implications for future volcanic eruptions as ClOx reduces in response to the cessation of chlorofluorocarbon emissions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ESDD....3.1055B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012ESDD....3.1055B">Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. 2012-09-01 We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real world climate sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the uppper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present day observables and future changes while the large spread of future projected changes, highlights the ongoing need for such work. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900043766&hterms=climate+change+deserts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange%2Bdeserts','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900043766&hterms=climate+change+deserts&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dclimate%2Bchange%2Bdeserts">Investigation of biogeophysical feedback on the African climate using a two-dimensional model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Xue, Yongkang; Liou, Kuo-Nan; Kasahara, Akira 1990-01-01 A numerical scheme is specifically designed to develop a time-dependent climate model to ensure the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and water vapor, in order to study the biogeophysical feedback for the climate of Africa. A vegetation layer is incorporated in the present two-dimensional climate model. Using the coupled climate-vegetation model, two tests were performed involving the removal and expansion of the Sahara Desert. Results show that variations in the surface conditions produce a significant feedback to the climate system. It is noted that the simulation responses to the temperature and zonal wind in the case of an expanded desert agree with the climatological data for African dry years. Perturbed simulations have also been performed by changing the albedo only, without allowing the variation in the vegetation layer. It is shown that the variation in latent heat release is significant and is related to changes in the vegetation cover. As a result, precipitation and cloud cover are reduced. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..627W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016ESD.....7..627W">Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm 2016-07-01 Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19516338','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19516338">The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten 2009-06-11 The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1166B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31F1166B">Quantifying the importance of model-to-model variability in integrated assessments of 21st century climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Jones, A. D.; Shi, X.; Calvin, K. V. 2016-12-01 The C4MIP and CMIP5 model intercomparison projects (MIPs) highlighted uncertainties in climate projections, driven to a large extent by interactions between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate feedbacks. In addition, the importance of feedbacks between human (energy and economic) systems and natural (carbon and climate) systems is poorly understood, and not considered in the previous MIP protocols. The experiments conducted under the previous Integrated Earth System Model (iESM) project, which coupled a earth system model with an integrated assessment model (GCAM), found that the inclusion of climate feedbacks on the terrestrial system in an RCP4.5 scenario increased ecosystem productivity, resulting in declines in cropland extent and increases in bioenergy production and forest cover. As a follow-up to these studies and to further understand climate-carbon cycle interactions and feedbacks, we examined the robustness of these results by running a suite of GCAM-only experiments using changes in ecosystem productivity derived from both the CMIP5 archive and the Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project. In our results, the effects of climate on yield in an RCP8.5 scenario tended to be more positive than those of AgMIP, but more negative than those of the other CMIP models. We discuss these results and the implications of model-to-model variability for integrated coupling studies of the future earth system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19810008165','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19810008165">Energy-balance climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr. 1980-01-01 An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820032405&hterms=introductory+statistics&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dintroductory%2Bstatistics','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19820032405&hterms=introductory+statistics&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Dintroductory%2Bstatistics">Energy balance climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr. 1981-01-01 An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A53I..02L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A53I..02L">Toward a Tighter Coupling between Models and Observations of Arctic Energy Balance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> L'Ecuyer, T. S. 2016-12-01 The Arctic climate is changing more rapidly than almost anywhere else on Earth owing to a number of unique feedbacks that locally amplify the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. While the basic theory behind these feedback mechanisms has been known for a long time, current climate models still struggle to capture observed rates of sea ice decline and ice sheet melt. This may be explained, at least partially, by a lack of observational constraints on cloud and precipitation processes owing to the challenges of making sustained, high quality atmospheric measurements in this inhospitable region. This presentation will introduce a new multi-satellite, multi-model combined Arctic dataset for probing the state of the Arctic climate and documenting and improving prediction models. Recent satellite-based reconstructions of the Arctic energy budget and its annual cycle contained within this dataset will used to demonstrate that many climate models exhibit significant biases in several key energy flows in the region. These biases, in turn, lead to discrepancies in both the magnitude and seasonality of the implied heat transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. The potential impacts of these biases on the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be explored. New estimates of downwelling radiative fluxes that explicitly account for the effects of super-cooled liquid water observed by new active satellite sensors will be used to drive a regional ice sheet model to assess the sensitivity of ice sheet dynamical processes to uncertainties in surface radiation balance. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A21B0018F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A21B0018F">Paleogeographic Controls on Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Strength and their Impacts on Snowball Earth Initiation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Fiorella, R.; Poulsen, C. J. 2013-12-01 The enigmatic Neoproterozoic geological record suggests the potential for a fully glaciated 'Snowball Earth.' Low-latitude continental position has been invoked as a potential Snowball Earth trigger by increasing surface albedo and decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations through increased silicate weathering. Herein, climate response to reduction of total solar irradiance (TSI) and CO2 concentration is tested using four different land configurations (aquaplanet, modern, Neoproterozoic, and low-latitude supercontinent) with uniform topography in the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 3.1) GCM with a mixed-layer ocean. Despite a lower global mean surface albedo at 100% TSI for the aquaplanet scenario, the threshold for global glaciation decreases from 92% TSI in the aquaplanet configuration to 85% TSI with a low-latitude supercontinent. Climate sensitivity, as measured by the equilibrium temperature response to TSI and CO2 changes, varied across all four geographies at each forcing pair. The range of sensitivities observed suggests that climate feedback strengths are strongly dependent on both paleogeography and forcing. To identify the mechanisms responsible for the observed breadth in climate sensitivities, we calculate radiative kernels for four different TSI and CO2 forcing pairs in order to assess the strengths of the water vapor, albedo, lapse rate, Planck, and cloud feedbacks and how they vary with both forcing and paleogeography. Radiative kernels are calculated using an uncoupled version of the CAM3.1 radiation code and then perturbing climate fields of interest (surface albedo, specific humidity, and temperature) by a standard amount. No cloud kernels are calculated; instead, the cloud feedback is calculated by correcting the change in cloud radiative forcing to account for cloud masking. We find that paleogeography strongly controls how the water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks respond to different forcings. In particular, low latitude continents diminish the change in water vapor feedback strengths resulting from changes in forcing. Continental heating intensifies the Walker circulation, enhancing surface evaporation and moistening the marine troposphere. Additionally, dehumidification of the troposphere over large tropical continents in CAM3.1 increases direct heating by decreasing cloud cover. As a result, in the absence of potential silicate weathering feedbacks, large tropical landmasses raise the barrier to initiation of Snowball events. More generally, these simulations demonstrate the substantial influence of geography on climate sensitivity and climate feedback mechanisms, and challenge the notion that reduced continental area early in Earth history might provide a solution to the Faint Young Sun Paradox. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20630278','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20630278">[Case Study] CityCenter and Cosmopolitan Construction Projects, Las Vegas, Nevada: lessons learned from the use of multiple sources and mixed methods in a safety needs assessment.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Gittleman, Janie L; Gardner, Paige C; Haile, Elizabeth; Sampson, Julie M; Cigularov, Konstantin P; Ermann, Erica D; Stafford, Pete; Chen, Peter Y 2010-06-01 The present study describes a response to eight tragic deaths over an eighteen month times span on a fast track construction project on the largest commercial development project in U.S. history. Four versions of a survey were distributed to workers, foremen, superintendents, and senior management. In addition to standard Likert-scale safety climate scale items, an open-ended item was included at the end of the survey. Safety climate perceptions differed by job level. Specifically, management perceived a more positive safety climate as compared to workers. Content analysis of the open-ended item was used to identify important safety and health concerns which might have been overlooked with the qualitative portion of the survey. The surveys were conducted to understand workforce issues of concern with the aim of improving site safety conditions. Such efforts can require minimal investment of resources and time and result in critical feedback for developing interventions affecting organizational structure, management processes, and communication. The most important lesson learned was that gauging differences in perception about site safety can provide critical feedback at all levels of a construction organization. Implementation of multi-level organizational perception surveys can identify major safety issues of concern. Feedback, if acted upon, can potentially result in fewer injuries and fatal events. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438278','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26438278">The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Webb, Mark J; Lock, Adrian P; Bretherton, Christopher S; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N S; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D; Zhao, Ming 2015-11-13 We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that 'ConvOff' models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. © 2015 The Authors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4608036','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=4608036">The impact of parametrized convection on cloud feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Webb, Mark J.; Lock, Adrian P.; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Bony, Sandrine; Cole, Jason N. S.; Idelkadi, Abderrahmane; Kang, Sarah M.; Koshiro, Tsuyoshi; Kawai, Hideaki; Ogura, Tomoo; Roehrig, Romain; Shin, Yechul; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Sherwood, Steven C.; Vial, Jessica; Watanabe, Masahiro; Woelfle, Matthew D.; Zhao, Ming 2015-01-01 We investigate the sensitivity of cloud feedbacks to the use of convective parametrizations by repeating the CMIP5/CFMIP-2 AMIP/AMIP + 4K uniform sea surface temperature perturbation experiments with 10 climate models which have had their convective parametrizations turned off. Previous studies have suggested that differences between parametrized convection schemes are a leading source of inter-model spread in cloud feedbacks. We find however that ‘ConvOff’ models with convection switched off have a similar overall range of cloud feedbacks compared with the standard configurations. Furthermore, applying a simple bias correction method to allow for differences in present-day global cloud radiative effects substantially reduces the differences between the cloud feedbacks with and without parametrized convection in the individual models. We conclude that, while parametrized convection influences the strength of the cloud feedbacks substantially in some models, other processes must also contribute substantially to the overall inter-model spread. The positive shortwave cloud feedbacks seen in the models in subtropical regimes associated with shallow clouds are still present in the ConvOff experiments. Inter-model spread in shortwave cloud feedback increases slightly in regimes associated with trade cumulus in the ConvOff experiments but is quite similar in the most stable subtropical regimes associated with stratocumulus clouds. Inter-model spread in longwave cloud feedbacks in strongly precipitating regions of the tropics is substantially reduced in the ConvOff experiments however, indicating a considerable local contribution from differences in the details of convective parametrizations. In both standard and ConvOff experiments, models with less mid-level cloud and less moist static energy near the top of the boundary layer tend to have more positive tropical cloud feedbacks. The role of non-convective processes in contributing to inter-model spread in cloud feedback is discussed. PMID:26438278 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T24A..02S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.T24A..02S">The Role of Vegetation Cover in Interactions between Climate and Erosion</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schildgen, T. F.; Torres-Acosta, V.; Düsing, W.; Garcin, Y.; Strecker, M. R. 2016-12-01 Interactions between tectonics, climate and erosion during mountain building are often considered to include a positive feedback between precipitation and erosion, with the onset of orographic rainfall inducing greater erosion, which in turn may drive faster deformation. Here, we consider two different case studies that explore specifically the relationship between climate and erosion. Within the Kenya Rift of East Africa, spatial variations in 10Be derived erosion rates show no clear dependency on yearly precipitation. Instead, we find that the data fall into two categories. In areas that are sparsely vegetated, erosion rates increase rapidly with slope, whereas in areas that are densely vegetated, erosion rates increase slowly with slope. These data imply that vegetation cover plays a major role in stabilizing hillslopes. From these results, we hypothesize that in a sparsely vegetated region, the onset of greater precipitation will lead to faster erosion, but only until vegetation becomes denser, after which erosion rates will strongly decrease. Initial results from an ongoing study that reconstruct paleo-erosion rates from a sedimentary archive support this hypothesis. Hence, we infer that in this region, vegetation cover acts as a negative feedback in the interactions between climate and erosion. Compared to East Africa, we find a very different relationship between climate and 10Be derived erosion rates in the Toro intermontane basin in NW Argentina. There, the fastest erosion rates occur in the wettest areas with dense vegetation cover, implying a positive feedback between increased precipitation and erosion rates. Also, paleo-erosion rates from the nearby Humahuaca Basin derived from fluvial terraces point to faster erosion during wetter periods in the past. In this region, the stabilizing effects of vegetation cover may be muted. Ultimately, whether increased precipitation leads to faster or slower erosion could hinge on the dominant erosion processes. Along the steep slopes of NW Argentina, landslides are the dominant process, and appear to be minimally affected by vegetation cover. In contrast, the more gentle hillslopes in East Africa appear to be stabilized by a dense vegetation cover. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_15");'>15</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li class="active">17</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_18" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="341"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140005682','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20140005682">CGILS: Results from the First Phase of an International Project to Understand the Physical Mechanisms of Low Cloud Feedbacks in Single Column Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Zhang, Minghua; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Blossey, Peter N.; Austin, Phillip H.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Bony, Sandrine; Brient, Florent; Cheedela, Suvarchal K.; Cheng, Anning; DelGenio, Anthony; <a style="text-decoration: none; " href="javascript:void(0); " onClick="displayelement('author_20140005682'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140005682_show'); toggleEditAbsImage('author_20140005682_hide'); "> <img style="display:inline; width:12px; height:12px; " src="images/arrow-up.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140005682_show"> <img style="width:12px; height:12px; display:none; " src="images/arrow-down.gif" width="12" height="12" border="0" alt="hide" id="author_20140005682_hide"> 2013-01-01 1] CGILS-the CFMIP-GASS Intercomparison of Large Eddy Models (LESs) and single column models (SCMs)-investigates the mechanisms of cloud feedback in SCMs and LESs under idealized climate change perturbation. This paper describes the CGILS results from 15 SCMs and 8 LES models. Three cloud regimes over the subtropical oceans are studied: shallow cumulus, cumulus under stratocumulus, and well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus. In the stratocumulus and coastal stratus regimes, SCMs without activated shallow convection generally simulated negative cloud feedbacks, while models with active shallow convection generally simulated positive cloud feedbacks. In the shallow cumulus alone regime, this relationship is less clear, likely due to the changes in cloud depth, lateral mixing, and precipitation or a combination of them. The majority of LES models simulated negative cloud feedback in the well-mixed coastal stratus/stratocumulus regime, and positive feedback in the shallow cumulus and stratocumulus regime. A general framework is provided to interpret SCM results: in a warmer climate, the moistening rate of the cloudy layer associated with the surface-based turbulence parameterization is enhanced; together with weaker large-scale subsidence, it causes negative cloud feedback. In contrast, in the warmer climate, the drying rate associated with the shallow convection scheme is enhanced. This causes positive cloud feedback. These mechanisms are summarized as the "NESTS" negative cloud feedback and the "SCOPE" positive cloud feedback (Negative feedback from Surface Turbulence under weaker Subsidence-Shallow Convection PositivE feedback) with the net cloud feedback depending on how the two opposing effects counteract each other. The LES results are consistent with these interpretations </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28827347','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28827347">Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin 2017-09-05 Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5594636','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5594636">Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L.; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin 2017-01-01 Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C. PMID:28827347 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910015372','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19910015372">The impact of greenhouse climate change on the energetics and hydrologic processes of mid-latitude transient eddies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Branscome, Lee E.; Gutowski, William J., Jr. 1991-01-01 Atmospheric transient eddies contribute significantly to mid-latitude energy and water vapor transports. Changes in the global climate, as induced by greenhouse enhancement, will likely alter transient eddy behavior. Unraveling all the feedbacks that occur in general circulation models (GCMs) can be difficult. The transient eddies are isolated from the feedbacks and are focused on the response of the eddies to zonal-mean climate changes that result from CO2-doubling. Using a primitive-equation spectral model, the impact of climate change on the life cycles of transient eddies is examined. Transient eddy behavior in experiments is compared with initial conditions that are given by the zonal-mean climates of the GCMs with current and doubled amounts of CO2. The smaller meridional temperature gradient in a doubled CO2 climate leads to a reduction in eddy kinetic energy, especially in the subtropics. The decrease in subtropical eddy energy is related to a substantial reduction in equatorward flux of eddy activity during the latter part of the life cycle. The reduction in equatorward energy flux alters the moisture cycle. Eddy meridional transport of water vapor is shifted slightly poleward and subtropical precipitation is reduced. The water vapor transport exhibits a relatively small change in magnitude, compared to changes in eddy energy, due to the compensating effect of higher specific humidity in the doubled-CO2 climate. An increase in high-latitude precipitation is related to the poleward shift in eddy water vapor flux. Surface evaporation amplifies climatic changes in water vapor transport and precipitation in the experiments. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911207W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1911207W">Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis processes in climate model and cloud-resolving model simulations using moist static energy budget analysis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Wing, Allison; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam; Kim, Daehyun; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wehner, Michael; Zarzycki, Colin; Zhao, Ming 2017-04-01 In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in five high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving models, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We then compare the genesis processes; in particular, the role of cloud-radiation interactions, to those of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized cloud-resolving model simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26534887','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26534887">The physics of Martian weather and climate: a review.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Read, P L; Lewis, S R; Mulholland, D P 2015-12-01 The planet Mars hosts an atmosphere that is perhaps the closest in terms of its meteorology and climate to that of the Earth. But Mars differs from Earth in its greater distance from the Sun, its smaller size, its lack of liquid oceans and its thinner atmosphere, composed mainly of CO(2). These factors give Mars a rather different climate to that of the Earth. In this article we review various aspects of the martian climate system from a physicist's viewpoint, focusing on the processes that control the martian environment and comparing these with corresponding processes on Earth. These include the radiative and thermodynamical processes that determine the surface temperature and vertical structure of the atmosphere, the fluid dynamics of its atmospheric motions, and the key cycles of mineral dust and volatile transport. In many ways, the climate of Mars is as complicated and diverse as that of the Earth, with complex nonlinear feedbacks that affect its response to variations in external forcing. Recent work has shown that the martian climate is anything but static, but is almost certainly in a continual state of transient response to slowly varying insolation associated with cyclic variations in its orbit and rotation. We conclude with a discussion of the physical processes underlying these long- term climate variations on Mars, and an overview of some of the most intriguing outstanding problems that should be a focus for future observational and theoretical studies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51C0820W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC51C0820W">Satellite lidar and radar: Key components of the future climate observing system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Winker, D. M. 2017-12-01 Cloud feedbacks represent the dominant source of uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity and aerosols represent the largest source of uncertainty in climate forcing. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. The existing 30-year record of passive satellite observations has not yet provided constraints to significantly reduce these uncertainties, though. We now have more than a decade of experience with active sensors flying in the A-Train. These new observations have demonstrated the strengths of active sensors and the benefits of continued and more advanced active sensors. This talk will discuss the multiple roles for active sensors as an essential component of a global climate observing system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150008711&hterms=vulnerability&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dvulnerability','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20150008711&hterms=vulnerability&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dvulnerability">CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Miller, Charles E.; Dinardo, Steven J. 2012-01-01 The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA41A2616Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMSA41A2616Z">Diagnosis of middle atmosphere chemistry-dynamics interactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhu, X.; Swartz, W. H.; Garcia, R. R.; Chartier, A.; Yee, J. H.; Yue, J. 2017-12-01 We apply the recently developed middle atmosphere climate feedback-response analysis method (MCFRAM) to diagnosing the temperature variations associated with chemistry-dynamics interactions in the middle atmosphere. By using output fields from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) coupled with the measurements, we identify and isolate the distinctive characteristics of different components in the observed temperature variations. Both the temperature trends associated with the anthropogenic forcing and temperature changes associated with natural and internal feedback processes are quantified based on MCFRAM defined partial temperature changes corresponding to localized radiative heating, non-localized chemical heating, eddy transport, and transport by the mean meridional circulation of energy and chemical species. In addition, the temperature responses to variations of CO2, O3, and solar flux have distinctly different spatial structures that can be systematically categorized by the eigenmodes of the generalized damping matrix derived from MCFRAM. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A11D1912H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A11D1912H">Evaluation of mean climate in a chemistry-climate model simulation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hong, S.; Park, H.; Wie, J.; Park, R.; Lee, S.; Moon, B. K. 2017-12-01 Incorporation of the interactive chemistry is essential for understanding chemistry-climate interactions and feedback processes in climate models. Here we assess a newly developed chemistry-climate model (GRIMs-Chem), which is based on the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) including the aerosol direct effect as well as stratospheric linearized ozone chemistry (LINOZ). We conducted GRIMs-Chem with observed sea surface temperature during the period of 1979-2010, and compared the simulation results with observations and also with CMIP models. To measure the relative performance of our model, we define the quantitative performance metric using the Taylor diagram. This metric allow us to assess overall features in simulating multiple variables. Overall, our model better reproduce the zonal mean spatial pattern of temperature, horizontal wind, vertical motion, and relative humidity relative to other models. However, the model did not produce good simulations at upper troposphere (200 hPa). It is currently unclear which model processes are responsible for this. AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program." </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B12C..05F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B12C..05F">Combining Ecosystem Observations, Manipulations and the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to Provide New Insights into Community Land Model Performance</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J. 2016-12-01 Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B12C..05F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B12C..05F">Multi-Scale Modeling of Boreal Forest Vegetation Growth Under the Influence of Permafrost and Wildfire Interactions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Foster, A.; Armstrong, A. H.; Shuman, J. K.; Ranson, K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J. 2017-12-01 Global temperatures have increased about 0.2°C per decade since 1979, and the high latitudes are warming faster than the rest of the globe. Climate change within Alaska is likely to bring about increased drought and longer fire seasons, as well as increases in the severity and frequency of fires. These changes in disturbance regimes and their associated effects on ecosystem C stocks, including permafrost, may lead to a positive feedback to further climate warming. As of now, it is uncertain how vegetation will respond to ongoing climate change, and the addition of disturbance effects leads to even more complicated and varied scenarios. Through ecological modeling, we have the capacity to examine forest processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales, allowing for the testing of complex interactions between vegetation, climate, and disturbances. The University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) is an individual tree-based forest model that has been updated for use in interior boreal Alaska, with a new permafrost model and updated fire simulation. These updated submodels allow for feedback between soils, vegetation, and fire severity through fuels tracking and impact of depth of burn on permafrost dynamics. We present these updated submodels as well as calibration and validation of UVAFME to the Yukon River Basin in Alaska, with comparisons to inventory data. We also present initial findings from simulations of potential future forest biomass, structure, and species composition across the Yukon River Basin under expected changes in precipitation, temperature, and disturbances. We predict changing climate and the associated impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in shifts in biomass and species composition across the region, with potential for further feedback to the climate-vegetation-disturbance system. These simulations advance our understanding of the possible futures for the Alaskan boreal forest, which is a valuable part of the global carbon budget. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7036I','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..16.7036I">A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos 2014-05-01 Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC13D..08B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMGC13D..08B">Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J. 2011-12-01 Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..817K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..817K">Higher climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon in cold than warm climates</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Koven, Charles D.; Hugelius, Gustaf; Lawrence, David M.; Wieder, William R. 2017-11-01 The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models (ESMs). To assess the climatological temperature sensitivity of soil carbon, we calculate apparent soil carbon turnover times that reflect long-term and broad-scale rates of decomposition. Here, we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top metre of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm climates and argue that it is critical to capture this emergent ecosystem property in global-scale models. We present a simplified model that explains the observed high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Current ESMs fail to capture this pattern, except in an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and carbon turnover. An observed weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges in a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behaviour. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1240921-relationship-between-interannual-long-term-cloud-feedbacks','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1240921-relationship-between-interannual-long-term-cloud-feedbacks">The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; ... 2015-12-11 The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28082588','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28082588">Plant-soil feedback and the maintenance of diversity in Mediterranean-climate shrublands.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Teste, François P; Kardol, Paul; Turner, Benjamin L; Wardle, David A; Zemunik, Graham; Renton, Michael; Laliberté, Etienne 2017-01-13 Soil biota influence plant performance through plant-soil feedback, but it is unclear whether the strength of such feedback depends on plant traits and whether plant-soil feedback drives local plant diversity. We grew 16 co-occurring plant species with contrasting nutrient-acquisition strategies from hyperdiverse Australian shrublands and exposed them to soil biota from under their own or other plant species. Plant responses to soil biota varied according to their nutrient-acquisition strategy, including positive feedback for ectomycorrhizal plants and negative feedback for nitrogen-fixing and nonmycorrhizal plants. Simulations revealed that such strategy-dependent feedback is sufficient to maintain the high taxonomic and functional diversity characterizing these Mediterranean-climate shrublands. Our study identifies nutrient-acquisition strategy as a key trait explaining how different plant responses to soil biota promote local plant diversity. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ESD.....9..663H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ESD.....9..663H">The biomass burning contribution to climate-carbon-cycle feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Harrison, Sandy P.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brovkin, Victor; Houweling, Sander; Kloster, Silvia; Prentice, I. Colin 2018-05-01 Temperature exerts strong controls on the incidence and severity of fire. All else equal, warming is expected to increase fire-related carbon emissions, and thereby atmospheric CO2. But the magnitude of this feedback is very poorly known. We use a single-box model of the land biosphere to quantify this positive feedback from satellite-based estimates of biomass burning emissions for 2000-2014 CE and from sedimentary charcoal records for the millennium before the industrial period. We derive an estimate of the centennial-scale feedback strength of 6.5 ± 3.4 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature increase, based on the satellite data. However, this estimate is poorly constrained, and is largely driven by the well-documented dependence of tropical deforestation and peat fires (primarily anthropogenic) on climate variability patterns linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Palaeo-data from pre-industrial times provide the opportunity to assess the fire-related climate-carbon-cycle feedback over a longer period, with less pervasive human impacts. Past biomass burning can be quantified based on variations in either the concentration and isotopic composition of methane in ice cores (with assumptions about the isotopic signatures of different methane sources) or the abundances of charcoal preserved in sediments, which reflect landscape-scale changes in burnt biomass. These two data sources are shown here to be coherent with one another. The more numerous data from sedimentary charcoal, expressed as normalized anomalies (fractional deviations from the long-term mean), are then used - together with an estimate of mean biomass burning derived from methane isotope data - to infer a feedback strength of 5.6 ± 3.2 ppm CO2 per degree of land temperature and (for a climate sensitivity of 2.8 K) a gain of 0.09 ± 0.05. This finding indicates that the positive carbon cycle feedback from increased fire provides a substantial contribution to the overall climate-carbon-cycle feedback on centennial timescales. Although the feedback estimates from palaeo- and satellite-era data are in agreement, this is likely fortuitous because of the pervasive influence of human activities on fire regimes during recent decades. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.P22B0553R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001AGUFM.P22B0553R">Toward a Model for Detecting Life on Extrasolar Planets</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Rye, R.; Storrie-Lombardi, M. 2001-12-01 The search for life extraterrestrial life has rapidly expanded during the past several years. In addition to missions to Mars and Europa, NASA now envisions launching an orbiting telescope, Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF), capable of resolving Earth-sized planets around stars as far away as 50 parsecs within the next 10-15 years. By that time we need to develop our understanding of the effects of life on such planets in order to confidently distinguish inhabited planets from barren ones. Our group is in the process of developing a fully coupled generalized 1-D radiative transfer-atmospheric chemistry model. Around this core we are building the Virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) to generate synthetic spectra of hypothetical extrasolar terrestrial planets. Computational modules mimicking the influence of life on atmospheric chemistry/climate are of central importance for analyzing data from TPF and related missions. Here we describe our rationale and initial efforts to parameterize the effects of life using a Virtual Microbial Community (VMC). At first glance, the task of modeling hypothetical inhabited planets appears intractable. However, we may assume that most planets settle into a fairly small number of stable climate/chemistry regimes during their history. These regimes are maintained by negative feedback loops. Transitions from one stable solution to another are singularities, times during which the system is unregulated and may vary wildly. In this context, life is one of several processes modifying the chemical composition of a planetary atmosphere, potentially modifying climate. We seek to elucidate those processes and signatures unique to life and visible from space. The VMC is a first attempt at quantifying the possible range of effects of life on the atmosphere of a planet. We start from the presumption that kinetics and thermodynamics are the same throughout the universe. Given the remarkable metabolic diversity of life on Earth, we assume that all available energy sources may be used by biology on detectably colonized planets. Simple feedback loops such as those governing Lovelock?s famous Daisyworld or the Walker CO2 feedback, offer starting points for thinking about global scale feedbacks. Feedbacks in microbial communities, e.g. those postulated in anaerobic methane oxidation communities, involving the use of one or more organisms? waste products as nutrients by another, hint at the local complexity from which we need to scale up. Our first attempt at bridging this gap involves describing the processes that may have helped stabilize the Archean climate. Archean biogenic methane production could have been rapid enough to provide 100s ppm atmospheric CH4. At such CH4 levels Earth would have remained ice free. Sudden increases in CH4 production might have led to runaway greenhouse conditions. However, if CH4/CO2 > 1 a UV absorbing aerosol haze should form. UV-labile ammonia could have accumulated in the atmosphere under the haze, quickly making rain pH > 7, dramatically slowing chemical weathering on the continents and interrupting vital phosphate delivery to the oceans. The residence time of P is ca.10,000 years. Thus, over a time scale of ca.10,000 years primary productivity dropped sharply. Biogenic methane production, near the base of the trophic ladder, suffered disproportionately. With little CH4 production CH4/CO2 fell to < 1. The UV screen and atmospheric NH3 disappeared in a few years. Rain pH dropped. Weathering restarted. Biological productivity recovered. The above testable scenario serves as an example of a plausible feedback involving interplay between biological, geochemical, atmospheric and stellar processes. Feedback loops of this sort will be central features of the fully realized VMC module for the VPL. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21C1970B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B21C1970B">Modeling the Space-Time Destiny of Pan-Arctic Permafrost DOC in a Global Land Surface Model: Feedback Implications</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bowring, S.; Lauerwald, R.; Guenet, B.; Zhu, D.; Ciais, P. 2017-12-01 Most global climate models do not represent the unique permafrost soil environment and its respective processes. This significantly contributes to uncertainty in estimating their responses, and that of the planet at large, to warming. Here, the production, transport and atmospheric release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from high-latitude permafrost soils into inland waters and the ocean is explicitly represented for the first time in the land surface component (ORCHIDEE-MICT) of a CMIP6 global climate model (IPSL). This work merges two models that are able to mechanistically simulate complex processes for 1) snow, ice and soil phenomena in high latitude environments, and 2) DOC production and lateral transport through soils and the river network, respectively, at 0.5° to 2° resolution. The resulting model is subjected to a wide range of input forcing data, parameter testing and contentious feedback phenomena, including microbial heat generation as the active layer deepens. We present results for the present and future Pan-Arctic and Eurasia, with a focus on the Lena and Mackenzie River basins, and show that soil DOC concentrations, their riverine transport and atmospheric evasion are reasonably well represented as compared to observed stocks, fluxes and seasonality. We show that most basins exhibit large increases in DOC transport and riverine CO2 evasion across the suite of RCP scenarios to 2100. We also show that model output is strongly influenced by choice of input forcing data. The riverine component of what is known as the `boundless carbon cycle' is little-recognized in global climate modeling. Hydrological mobilization to the river network results either in sedimentary settling or atmospheric `evasion', presently amounting to 0.5-1.8 PgC yr-1. Our work aims at filling in these knowledge gaps, and the response of these DOC-related processes to thermal forcing. Potential feedbacks owing to such a response are of particular relevance, given the magnitude of the permafrost carbon pool. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_16");'>16</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li class="active">18</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_19" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="361"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1147164','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1147164">Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-3) Partnership Project Annual Report</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Hoffman, Forest M.; Bochev, Pavel B.; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.. The Applying Computationally Efficient Schemes for BioGeochemical Cycles ACES4BGC Project is advancing the predictive capabilities of Earth System Models (ESMs) by reducing two of the largest sources of uncertainty, aerosols and biospheric feedbacks, with a highly efficient computational approach. In particular, this project is implementing and optimizing new computationally efficient tracer advection algorithms for large numbers of tracer species; adding important biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean models; and applying uncertainty quanti cation (UQ) techniques to constrain process parameters and evaluate uncertainties in feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1164294','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1164294">Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Deng, Yi 2014-11-24 DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observationsmore » and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include: 1) the distinctly different roles played by atmospheric dynamical processes in establishing surface temperature response to ENSO at tropics and extratropics (i.e., atmospheric dynamics disperses energy out of tropics during ENSO warm events and modulate surface temperature at mid-, high-latitudes through controlling downward longwave radiation); 2) the representations of ENSO-related temperature response in climate models fail to converge at the process-level particularly over extratropics (i.e., models produce the right temperature responses to ENSO but with wrong reasons); 3) water vapor feedback contributes substantially to the temperature anomalies found over U.S. during different phases of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which adds new insight to the traditional picture that cold/warm advective processes are the main drivers of local temperature responses to the NAM; 4) the overall land surface temperature biases in the latest NCAR model (CESM1) are caused by biases in surface albedo while the surface temperature biases over ocean are related to multiple factors including biases in model albedo, cloud and oceanic dynamics, and the temperature biases over different ocean basins are also induced by different process biases. These results provide a detailed guidance for process-level model turning and improvement, and thus contribute directly to the overall goal of reducing model uncertainty in projecting future changes in the Earth’s climate system, especially in the ENSO and AM variability.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1222385-feedback-attribution-land-sea-warming-contrast-global-warming-simulation-ncar-ccsm4','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1222385-feedback-attribution-land-sea-warming-contrast-global-warming-simulation-ncar-ccsm4">Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming; ... 2014-12-02 One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1222385-feedback-attribution-land-sea-warming-contrast-global-warming-simulation-ncar-ccsm4','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1222385-feedback-attribution-land-sea-warming-contrast-global-warming-simulation-ncar-ccsm4">Feedback attribution of the land-sea warming contrast in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Sejas, Sergio A.; Albert, Oriene S.; Cai, Ming One of the salient features in both observations and climate simulations is a stronger land warming than sea. This paper provides a quantitative understanding of the main processes that contribute to the land-sea warming asymmetry in a global warming simulation of the NCAR CCSM4. The CO 2 forcing alone warms the surface nearly the same for both land and sea, suggesting that feedbacks are responsible for the warming contrast. Our analysis on one hand confirms that the principal contributor to the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio is the evaporation feedback; on the other hand the results indicate that the sensible heatmore » flux feedback has the largest land-sea warming difference that favors a greater ocean than land warming. Furthermore, the results uniquely highlight the importance of other feedbacks in establishing the above-unity land-to-sea warming ratio. Particularly, the SW cloud feedback and the ocean heat storage in the transient response are key contributors to the greater warming over land than sea.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70190509','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70190509">East African weathering dynamics controlled by vegetation-climate feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Ivory, Sarah J.; McGlue, Michael M.; Ellis, Geoffrey S.; Boehlke, Adam; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Vincens, Annie; Cohen, Andrew S. 2017-01-01 Tropical weathering has important linkages to global biogeochemistry and landscape evolution in the East African rift. We disentangle the influences of climate and terrestrial vegetation on chemical weathering intensity and erosion at Lake Malawi using a long sediment record. Fossil pollen, microcharcoal, particle size, and mineralogy data affirm that the detrital clays accumulating in deep water within the lake are controlled by feedbacks between climate and hinterland forest composition. Particle-size patterns are also best explained by vegetation, through feedbacks with lake levels, wildfires, and erosion. We develop a new source-to-sink framework that links lacustrine sedimentation to hinterland vegetation in tropical rifts. Our analysis suggests that climate-vegetation interactions and their coupling to weathering/erosion could threaten future food security and has implications for accurately predicting petroleum play elements in continental rift basins. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG43B1422M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010AGUFMNG43B1422M">Transient and asymptotic behavior in a regular network model for the ice-albedo feedback under thermal forcing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Mueller-Stoffels, M.; Wackerbauer, R. 2010-12-01 The Arctic ocean and sea ice form a feedback system which plays an important role in the global climate. Variations of the global ice and snow distribution have a significant effect on the planetary albedo which governs the absorption of shortwave radiation. The complexity of highly parametrized GCMs makes it very difficult to assess single feedback processes in the climate system without the concurrent use of simple models where the physics are understood [1][2][3]. We introduce a complex systems model to investigate thermodynamic feedback processes in an Arctic ice-ocean layer. The ice-ocean layer is represented as a regular network of coupled cells. The state of each cell is determined by its energy content, which also defines the phase of the cell. The energy transport between cells is described with nonlinear and heterogeneous diffusion constants. And the time-evolution of the ice-ocean is driven by shortwave, longwave and lateral oceanic and atmospheric thermal forcing. This model is designed to study the stability of an ice cover under various heat intake scenarios. The network structure of the model allows to easily introduce albedo heterogeneities due to aging ice, wind blown snow cover, and ice movement to explore the time-evolution and pattern formation (melt ponds) processes in the Arctic sea ice. The solely thermodynamic model exhibits two stable states; one in the perennially ice covered domain and one in the perennially open water domain. Their existence is due to the temperature dependence of the longwave radiative budget. Transition between these states can be forced via lateral heat fluxes. During the transition from the ice covered to the open water stable state the ice albedo feedback effects are manifested as an increased warming rate of the ice cover together with enhanced seasonal energy oscillations. In the current model realization seasonal ice cover is present as a transient state only. Furthermore, the model exhibits hysteresis between the ice covered and the open water state when varying the lateral atmospheric (or oceanic) heat intake. Once the ice-ocean layer has transitioned from the ice covered to the open water stable state significant cooling (reduction of lateral fluxes) is necessary to return to the ice covered stable state. We also find that ocean heat fluxes are more efficient than atmospheric heat fluxes to melt Arctic sea ice; only small portions of heat entering from the bottom of the ice-ocean layer induce already a transition to the stable asymptotic state with perennial open water. This indicates that ocean currents, understood as heat conveyors, can play a significant role in melting continuous ice covers. This is consistent with the findings of Shimada et al. for the Canada basin [4]. References: [1] S. Bony et al., How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes?, J of Climate 19, 3445 (2006). [2]I. Eisenman and J.S. Wettlaufer, Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice, PNAS 106, 28 (2009). [3]A.S. Thorndike, A Toy Model Linking Atmospheric and Thermal Radiation and Sea Ice Growth, JGR 97, 9401 (1992). [4] K. Shimada et al., Paci[|#12#|]c Ocean inflow: Influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, GRL 33, L08605 (2006). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRC..119.6933X','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014JGRC..119.6933X">Local feedback mechanisms of the shallow water region around the Maritime Continent</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Xue, Pengfei; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, Paola; Wei, Jun 2014-10-01 The focus of this study is the local-scale air-sea feedback mechanisms over the shallow shelf water region (water depth <200 m) of the Maritime Continent (MC). MC was selected as a pilot study site for its extensive shallow water coverage, geographic complexity, and importance in the global climate system. To identify the local-scale air-sea feedback processes, we ran numerical experiments with perturbed surface layer water temperature using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model and an uncoupled ocean model. By examining the responses of the coupled and uncoupled models to the water temperature perturbation, we identify that, at a local-scale, a negative feedback process through the coupled dynamics that tends to restore the SST from its perturbation could dominate the shallow water region of the MC at a short time scale of several days. The energy budget shows that 38% of initial perturbation-induced heat energy was adjusted through the air-sea feedback mechanisms within 2 weeks, of which 58% is directly transferred into the atmosphere by the adjustment of latent heat flux due to the evaporative cooling mechanism. The increased inputs of heat and moisture into the lower atmosphere then modifies its thermal structure and increases the formation of low-level clouds, which act as a shield preventing incoming solar radiation from reaching the sea surface, accounts for 38% of the total adjustment of surface heat fluxes, serving as the second mechanism for the negative feedback process. The adjustment of sensible heat flux and net longwave radiation play a secondary role. The response of the coupled system to the SST perturbation suggests a response time scale of the coupled feedback process of about 3-5 days. The two-way air-sea feedback tightly links the surface heat fluxes, clouds and SST, and can play an important role in regulating the short-term variability of the SST over the shallow shelf water regions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1336997-impact-decadal-cloud-variations-earths-energy-budget','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1336997-impact-decadal-cloud-variations-earths-energy-budget">Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. 2016-10-31 Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1336997','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1336997">Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatGe...9..871Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016NatGe...9..871Z">Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. 2016-12-01 Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044490','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70044490">Modern climate challenges and the geological record</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Cronin, Thomas M. 2010-01-01 Today's changing climate poses challenges about the influence of human activity, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use changes, the natural variability of Earth's climate, and complex feedback processes. Ice core and instrumental records show that over the last century, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have risen to 390 parts per million volume (ppmv), about 40% above pre-Industrial Age concentrations of 280 ppmv and nearly twice those of the last glacial maximum about 22,000 years ago. Similar historical increases are recorded in atmospheric methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). There is general agreement that human activity is largely responsible for these trends. Substantial evidence also suggests that elevated greenhouse gas concentrations are responsible for much of the recent atmospheric and oceanic warming, rising sea level, declining Arctic sea-ice cover, retreating glaciers and small ice caps, decreased mass balance of the Greenland and parts of the Antarctic ice sheets, and decreasing ocean pH (ocean "acidification"). Elevated CO2 concentrations raise concern not only from observations of the climate system, but because feedbacks associated with reduced reflectivity from in land and sea ice, sea level, and land vegetation relatively slowly (centuries or longer) to elevated 2 levels. This means that additional human-induced climate change is expected even if the rate of CO2 emissions is reduced or concentrations immediately stabilized. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GPC....41..241D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GPC....41..241D">Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Du, Mingyuan; Kawashima, Shigeto; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Zhang, Xianzhou; Chen, Shenbin 2004-07-01 It is well known that there is a vast expanse of grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, China. It is suggested that a major climatic factor limiting production of the grassland ecosystem is the low thermo-conditions on the Tibetan Plateau. An increase in temperature may therefore increase the productivity of grasslands on the Plateau. Monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation data for recent years on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed. It is clear that the increase in air temperature on the Plateau is greater than that in the whole China and East Asia. On the other hand, statistics show that the production of livestock or meat in the Tibetan Plateau has increased by one to three times since 1978, which means that there should be an equivalent increase in the consumption of plant biomass from the grassland. How is the "increased biomass" related to human activities and climate changes? This paper tries to clarify the relationship between human activities and climate change and to propose a possible answer by laying emphasis on the importance of grassland protection and CO 2 flux monitoring. It is suggested that there is a positive feedback in which degradation of grassland by overgrazing will increase potential evapotranspiration level thereby promoting the climate warming and the degradation process. This feedback should be considered seriously in the future. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70169233','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70169233">Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Schuur, E.A.G.; McGuire, A. David; Schädel, C.; Grosse, G.; Harden, J.W.; Hayes, D.J.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Kuhry, P.; Lawrence, D.M.; Natali, Susan M.; Olefeldt, David; Romanovsky, V.E.; Schaefer, K.; Turetsky, M.R.; Treat, C.C.; Vonk, J.E. 2015-01-01 Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25855454','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25855454">Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Schuur, E A G; McGuire, A D; Schädel, C; Grosse, G; Harden, J W; Hayes, D J; Hugelius, G; Koven, C D; Kuhry, P; Lawrence, D M; Natali, S M; Olefeldt, D; Romanovsky, V E; Schaefer, K; Turetsky, M R; Treat, C C; Vonk, J E 2015-04-09 Large quantities of organic carbon are stored in frozen soils (permafrost) within Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. A warming climate can induce environmental changes that accelerate the microbial breakdown of organic carbon and the release of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane. This feedback can accelerate climate change, but the magnitude and timing of greenhouse gas emission from these regions and their impact on climate change remain uncertain. Here we find that current evidence suggests a gradual and prolonged release of greenhouse gas emissions in a warming climate and present a research strategy with which to target poorly understood aspects of permafrost carbon dynamics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25560606','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25560606">The role of the Gulf Stream in European climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Palter, Jaime B 2015-01-01 The Gulf Stream carries the warm, poleward return flow of the wind-driven North Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This northward flow drives a significant meridional heat transport. Various lines of evidence suggest that Gulf Stream heat transport profoundly influences the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere and, thus, Europe's climate on timescales of decades and longer. The Gulf Stream's influence is mediated through feedback processes between the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. This review synthesizes paleoclimate archives, model simulations, and the instrumental record, which collectively suggest that decadal and longer-scale variability of the Gulf Stream's heat transport manifests in changes in European temperature, precipitation, and storminess. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, associated changes in European climate are expected. However, large uncertainty in the magnitude of the anticipated weakening undermines the predictability of the future climate in Europe. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870053487&hterms=balance+general&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dbalance%2Bgeneral','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19870053487&hterms=balance+general&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D50%26Ntt%3Dbalance%2Bgeneral">The role of earth radiation budget studies in climate and general circulation research</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Ramanathan, V. 1987-01-01 The use of earth radiation budget (ERB) data for climate and general circulation research is studied. ERB measurements obtained in the 1960's and 1970's have provided data on planetary brightness, planetary global energy balances, the greenhouse effect, solar insolation, meridional heat transport by oceans and atmospheres, regional forcing, climate feedback processes, and the computation of albedo values in low latitudes. The role of clouds in governing climate, in influencing the general circulation, and in determining the sensitivity of climate to external perturbations needs to be researched; a procedure for analyzing the ERB data, which will address these problems, is described. The approach involves estimating the clear-sky fluxes from the high spatial resolution scanner measurement and defining a cloud radiative forcing; the global average of the sum of the solar and long-wave cloud forcing yields the net radiative effect of clouds on the climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31A1106M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC31A1106M">Global Warming Denial: The Human Brain on Extremes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Marrouch, N.; Johnson, B. T.; Slawinska, J. M. 2016-12-01 Future assessments of climate change rely on multi-model intercomparisons, and projections of the extreme events frequency are of particular interest as associated with significant economic costs and social threats. Notably, systematically simulated increases in the number of extreme weather events agree well with observational data over the last decade. At the same time, as the climate grows more volatile, widespread denial of climate change and its anthropocentric causes continues to proliferate (based on nationally representative U.S. polls). Simultaneous increases in both high-impact exposure and its denial is in stark contrast with our knowledge of socio-natural dynamics and its models. Disentangling this paradox requires an understanding of the origins of global warming denial at an individual level, and how subsequently it propagates across social networks of many scales, shaping global policies. However, as the real world and its dynamical models are complex (high-dimensional and coupled), separating the particular feedback of interest remains a challenge. Here, we demonstrate this feedback in a controlled experiment, where increasing unpredictability using helplessness-training paradigms induces changes in global warming denial, and the endorsement of conservative ideology. We explain these results in the context of evolutionary theory framing self-deception and denial as remnants of evolutionary processes that shaped and facilitated the survival of the human species. Further we link these findings to changes in neural and higher-level cognitive processes in response to unpredictable stimuli. We argue that climate change denial is an example of an extreme belief system that carries the potential to threaten the wellbeing of both humans and other species alike. It is therefore crucial to better quantify climate denial using social informatics tools that provide the means to improve its representations in coupled socio-geophysical models to mitigate its effects on global and local policies. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JMS...180...49K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JMS...180...49K">Positive and negative feedback loops in nutrient phytoplankton interactions related to climate dynamics factors in a shallow temperate estuary (Vistula Lagoon, southern Baltic)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kruk, Marek; Kobos, Justyna; Nawrocka, Lidia; Parszuto, Katarzyna 2018-04-01 This study aims to demonstrate that factors associated with climate dynamics, such as temperature and wind, affect the ecosystem of the shallow Vistula Lagoon in the southern Baltic and cause nutrient forms phytoplankton interactions: the growth of biomass and constraints of it. This occurs through a network of direct and indirect relationships between environmental and phytoplankton factors, including interactions of positive and negative feedback loops. Path analysis supported by structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test hypotheses regarding the impact of climate factors on algal assemblages. Increased phytoplankton biomass was affected directly by water temperature and salinity, while the wind speed effect was indirect as it resulted in increased concentrations of suspended solids (SS) in the water column. Simultaneously, the concentration of SS in the water was positively correlated with particulate organic carbon (POC), particulate nitrogen (PN), and particulate phosphorus (PP), and was negatively correlated with the total nitrogen to phosphorus (N:P) ratio. Particulate forms of C, N, and phosphorus (P), concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) and nitrate and nitrite nitrogen (NO3-N + NO2-N), and ratios of the total N:P and DIN:SRP, all indirectly effected Cyanobacteria C concentrations. These processes influence other phytoplankton groups (Chlorophyta, Bacillariophyceae and the picophytoplankton fraction). Increased levels of SRP associated with organic matter (POC), which stemmed from reduced DIN:SRP ratios, contributed to increased Cyanoprokaryota and picophytoplankton C concentrations, which created a positive feedback loop. However, a simultaneous reduction in the total N:P ratio could have inhibited increases in the biomass of these assemblages by limiting N, which likely formed a negative feedback loop. The study indicates that the nutrients-phytoplankton feedback loop phenomenon can intensify eutrophication in a temperate lagoon, including increases of the biomass of Cyanobacteria and picophytoplankton. However, it can also constrain this increase. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39699','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/39699">Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> R. Norby; E. DeLucia; B. Gielen; C. Calfapietra; C. Giardina; J. King; J. Ledford; H. McCarthy; D. Moore; R. Ceulemans; P. De Angelis; A. C. Finzi; D. F. Karnosky; M. E. Kubiske; M. Lukac; K. S. Pregitzer; G. E. Scarascia-Mugnozza; W. Schlesinger and R. Oren. 2005-01-01 Climate change predictions derived from coupled carbon-climate models are highly dependent on assumptions about feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere. One critical feedback occurs if C uptake by the biosphere increases in response to the fossil-fuel driven increase in atmospheric [CO2] ("CO2 fertilization... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33B0217T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A33B0217T">Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Trossman, D.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y. 2016-12-01 We argue that a substantial fraction of the uncertainty in the cloud radiative feedback during transient climate change may be due to uncertainty in the ocean circulation perturbation. A suite of climate model simulations in which the ocean circulation, the cloud radiative feedback, or a combination of both are held fixed while CO2 doubles, shows that changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback. Specifically, a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) helps to maintain low cloud cover in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. We propose that the AMOC decline increases the meridional SST gradient, strengthening the storm track, its attendant clouds and the amount of shortwave radiation they reflect back to space. If the results of our model were to scale proportionately in the CMIP5 models, whose AMOC decline ranges from 15 to 60% under RCP8.5, then as much as 70% of the intermodel spread in the cloud radiative feedback and 35% of the spread in the transient climate response could possibly stem from the model representations of AMOC decline. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_17");'>17</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li class="active">19</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_20" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="381"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.5647K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.5647K">Arctic energy budget in relation to sea-ice variability on monthly to annual time scales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco 2015-04-01 The strong decrease in Arctic sea-ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea-ice predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Hence, it is key to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. The authors report on an analysis of natural variability of Arctic sea-ice from an energy budget perspective, using 15 CMIP5 climate models, and comparing these results to atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses data. We quantify the persistence of sea ice anomalies and the cross-correlation with the surface and top energy budget components. The Arctic energy balance components primarily indicate the important role of the seasonal sea-ice albedo feedback, in which sea-ice anomalies in the melt season reemerge in the growth season. This is a robust anomaly reemergence mechanism among all 15 climate models. The role of ocean lies mainly in storing heat content anomalies in spring, and releasing them in autumn. Ocean heat flux variations only play a minor role. The role of clouds is further investigated. We demonstrate that there is no direct atmospheric response of clouds to spring sea-ice anomalies, but a delayed response is evident in autumn. Hence, there is no cloud-ice feedback in late spring and summer, but there is a cloud-ice feedback in autumn, which strengthens the ice-albedo feedback. Anomalies in insolation are positively correlated with sea-ice variability. This is primarily a result of reduced multiple-reflection of insolation due to an albedo decrease. This effect counteracts the sea-ice albedo effect up to 50%. ERA-Interim and ORAS4 confirm the main findings from the climate models. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28239438','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28239438">Coupling between lower-tropospheric convective mixing and low-level clouds: Physical mechanisms and dependence on convection scheme.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Vial, Jessica; Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Roehrig, Romain 2016-12-01 Several studies have pointed out the dependence of low-cloud feedbacks on the strength of the lower-tropospheric convective mixing. By analyzing a series of single-column model experiments run by a climate model using two different convective parametrizations, this study elucidates the physical mechanisms through which marine boundary-layer clouds depend on this mixing in the present-day climate and under surface warming. An increased lower-tropospheric convective mixing leads to a reduction of low-cloud fraction. However, the rate of decrease strongly depends on how the surface latent heat flux couples to the convective mixing and to boundary-layer cloud radiative effects: (i) on the one hand, the latent heat flux is enhanced by the lower-tropospheric drying induced by the convective mixing, which damps the reduction of the low-cloud fraction, (ii) on the other hand, the latent heat flux is reduced as the lower troposphere stabilizes under the effect of reduced low-cloud radiative cooling, which enhances the reduction of the low-cloud fraction. The relative importance of these two different processes depends on the closure of the convective parameterization. The convective scheme that favors the coupling between latent heat flux and low-cloud radiative cooling exhibits a stronger sensitivity of low-clouds to convective mixing in the present-day climate, and a stronger low-cloud feedback in response to surface warming. In this model, the low-cloud feedback is stronger when the present-day convective mixing is weaker and when present-day clouds are shallower and more radiatively active. The implications of these insights for constraining the strength of low-cloud feedbacks observationally is discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5299518','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5299518">Coupling between lower‐tropospheric convective mixing and low‐level clouds: Physical mechanisms and dependence on convection scheme</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Bony, Sandrine; Dufresne, Jean‐Louis; Roehrig, Romain 2016-01-01 Abstract Several studies have pointed out the dependence of low‐cloud feedbacks on the strength of the lower‐tropospheric convective mixing. By analyzing a series of single‐column model experiments run by a climate model using two different convective parametrizations, this study elucidates the physical mechanisms through which marine boundary‐layer clouds depend on this mixing in the present‐day climate and under surface warming. An increased lower‐tropospheric convective mixing leads to a reduction of low‐cloud fraction. However, the rate of decrease strongly depends on how the surface latent heat flux couples to the convective mixing and to boundary‐layer cloud radiative effects: (i) on the one hand, the latent heat flux is enhanced by the lower‐tropospheric drying induced by the convective mixing, which damps the reduction of the low‐cloud fraction, (ii) on the other hand, the latent heat flux is reduced as the lower troposphere stabilizes under the effect of reduced low‐cloud radiative cooling, which enhances the reduction of the low‐cloud fraction. The relative importance of these two different processes depends on the closure of the convective parameterization. The convective scheme that favors the coupling between latent heat flux and low‐cloud radiative cooling exhibits a stronger sensitivity of low‐clouds to convective mixing in the present‐day climate, and a stronger low‐cloud feedback in response to surface warming. In this model, the low‐cloud feedback is stronger when the present‐day convective mixing is weaker and when present‐day clouds are shallower and more radiatively active. The implications of these insights for constraining the strength of low‐cloud feedbacks observationally is discussed. PMID:28239438 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......103T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012PhDT.......103T">Soil Moisture-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Atmospheric Tracers: The Effects of Soil Moisture on Precipitation and Near-Surface Chemistry</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tawfik, Ahmed B. The atmospheric component is described by rapid fluctuations in typical state variables, such as temperature and water vapor, on timescales of hours to days and the land component evolves on daily to yearly timescales. This dissertation examines the connection between soil moisture and atmospheric tracers under varying degrees of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling. Land-atmosphere coupling is defined over the United States using a regional climate model. A newly examined soil moisture-precipitation feedback is identified for winter months extending the previous summer feedback to colder temperature climates. This feedback is driven by the freezing and thawing of soil moisture, leading to coupled land-atmosphere conditions near the freezing line. Soil moisture can also affect the composition of the troposphere through modifying biogenic emissions of isoprene (C5H8). A novel first-order Taylor series decomposition indicates that isoprene emissions are jointly driven by temperature and soil moisture in models. These compounds are important precursors for ozone formation, an air pollutant and a short-lived forcing agent for climate. A mechanistic description of commonly observed relationships between ground-level ozone and meteorology is presented using the concept of soil moisture-temperature coupling regimes. The extent of surface drying was found to be a better predictor of ozone concentrations than temperature or humidity for the Eastern U.S. This relationship is evaluated in a coupled regional chemistry-climate model under several land-atmosphere coupling and isoprene emissions cases. The coupled chemistry-climate model can reproduce the observed soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern, yet modeled ozone is insensitive to changes in meteorology due to the balance between isoprene and the primary atmospheric oxidant, the hydroxyl radical (OH). Overall, this work highlights the importance of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling for previously neglected cold climate regimes, controlling isoprene emissions variability, and providing a processed-based description of observed ozone-meteorology relationships. From the perspective of ozone air quality, the lack of sensitivity of ozone to meteorology suggests a systematic deficiency in chemistry models in high isoprene emission regions. This shortcoming must be addressed to better estimate tropospheric ozone radiative forcing and to understanding how ozone air quality may respond to future warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMED41A0555D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMED41A0555D">Communicating climate sciences in academia and beyond</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Dupigny-Giroux, L. L. 2008-12-01 Climate change has catapulted climate and atmospheric sciences onto center stage in a way that eclipses the challenges of acid rain deposition in the late 1990s. However, there are subtle differences in the non- scientists' understanding of climate dynamics, processes, feedbacks etc.. Even among non-atmospheric scientists, there is sometimes an under-appreciation of the nuances of the land-atmosphere-ocean system. Many agencies are poised to play pivotal roles in helping to move this understanding forward, either due to their scientific missions or outreach components. Among these are the American Association of State Climatologists, the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, UCAR, NOAA, NASA and Association of American Geographers to name a few. This presentation will suggest directions in communicating climate science that come out a State Climatologist's perspective as well as liberal arts academic setting. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880067918&hterms=theory+building&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dtheory%2Bbuilding','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19880067918&hterms=theory+building&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D10%26Ntt%3Dtheory%2Bbuilding">The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H. 1988-01-01 A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PalOc..32.1291M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PalOc..32.1291M">The Role of African Dust in Atlantic Climate During Heinrich Events</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Murphy, L. N.; Goes, M.; Clement, A. C. 2017-11-01 Increased ice discharge in the North Atlantic is thought to cause a weakening, or collapse, of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during Heinrich events. Paleoclimate records indicate that these periods were marked by severe tropical aridity and dustiness. Although the driver of these events is still under debate, large freshwater input is necessary for climate models to simulate the magnitude, geographical extent, and abruptness of these events, indicating that they may be missing feedbacks. We hypothesize that the dust-climate feedback is one such feedback that has not been previously considered. Here we analyze the role of dust-climate feedbacks on the AMOC by parameterizing the dust radiative effects in an intermediate complexity model and consider uncertainties due to wind stress forcing and the magnitude of both atmospheric dust loading and freshwater hosing. We simulate both stable and unstable AMOC regimes by changing the prescribed wind stress forcing. In the unstable regime, additional dust loading during Heinrich events cools and freshens the North Atlantic and abruptly reduces the AMOC by 20% relative to a control simulation. In the stable regime, however, additional dust forcing alone does not alter the AMOC strength. Including both freshwater and dust forcing results in a cooling of the subtropical North Atlantic more comparable to proxy records than with freshwater forcing alone. We conclude that dust-climate feedbacks may provide amplification to Heinrich cooling by further weakening AMOC and increasing North Atlantic sea ice coverage. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50..571Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy...50..571Z">Influence of surface nudging on climatological mean and ENSO feedbacks in a coupled model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun 2018-01-01 Studies have suggested that surface nudging could be an efficient way to reconstruct the subsurface ocean variability, and thus a useful method for initializing climate predictions (e.g., seasonal and decadal predictions). Surface nudging is also the basis for climate models with flux adjustments. In this study, however, some negative aspects of surface nudging on climate simulations in a coupled model are identified. Specifically, a low-resolution version of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2L) is used to examine the influence of nudging on simulations of climatological mean and on the coupled feedbacks during ENSO. The effect on ENSO feedbacks is diagnosed following a heat budget analysis of mixed layer temperature anomalies. Diagnostics of the climatological mean state indicates that, even though SST biases in all ocean basins, as expected, are eliminated, the fidelity of climatological precipitation, surface winds and subsurface temperature (or the thermocline depth) could be highly ocean basin dependent. This is exemplified by improvements in the climatology of these variables in the tropical Atlantic, but degradations in the tropical Pacific. Furthermore, surface nudging also distorts the dynamical feedbacks during ENSO. For example, while the thermocline feedback played a critical role during the evolution of ENSO in a free simulation, it only played a minor role in the nudged simulation. These results imply that, even though the simulation of surface temperature could be improved in a climate model with surface nudging, the physics behind might be unrealistic. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1076751','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1076751">Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Schlosser, Courtney Adam; Walter-Anthony, Katey; Zhuang, Qianlai 2013-04-26 Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of fieldmore » measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009774','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19930009774">Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Bills, Bruce G. 1992-01-01 Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.B43F0362L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFM.B43F0362L">Impacts of Seed Dispersal on Future Vegetation Structure under Changing Climates</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lee, E.; Schlosser, C. A.; Gao, X.; Prinn, R. G. 2011-12-01 As the impacts between land cover change, future climates and ecosystems are expected to be substantial, there are growing needs for improving the capability of simulating the global vegetation structure and landscape as realistically as possible. Current DGVMs assume ubiquitous availability of seeds and do not consider any seed dispersal mechanisms in plant migration process, which may influence the assessment of impacts to the ecosystem that rely on the vegetation structure changes (i.e., change in albedo, runoff, and terrestrial carbon sequestration capacity). This study incorporates time-varying wind-driven seed dispersal (i.e., the SEED configuration) as a dynamic constraint to the migration process of natural vegetation in the Community Land Model (CLM)-DGVM. The SEED configuration is validated using a satellite-derived tree cover dataset. Then the configuration is applied to project future vegetation structures and their implications for carbon fluxes, albedo, and hydrology under two climate mitigation scenarios (No-policy vs. 450ppm CO2 stabilization) for the 21st century. Our results show that regional changes of vegetation structure under changing climates are expected to be significant. For example, Alaska and Siberia are expected to experience substantial shifts of forestry structure, characterized by expansion of needle-leaf boreal forest and shrinkage of C3 grass Arctic. A suggested vulnerability assessment shows that vegetation structures in Alaska, Greenland, Central America, southern South America, East Africa and East Asia are susceptible to changing climates, regardless of the two climate mitigation scenarios. Regions such as Greenland, Tibet, South Asia and Northern Australia, however, may substantially alleviate their risks of rapid change in vegetation structure, given a robust greenhouse gas stabilization target. Proliferation of boreal forests in the high latitudes is expected to amplify the warming trend (i.e., a positive feedback to climate), if no mitigation policy is implemented. In contrast, under the 450ppm scenario, vegetation structure may buffer the warming trend, which is a negative feedback to climate. Moreover, runoff changes due to vegetation shifts may offset or complement runoff changes under anthropogenic climate warming. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.2878B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010EGUGA..12.2878B">Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C. 2010-05-01 In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5563806','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5563806">Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E. 2017-01-01 Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28814655','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28814655">Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E 2017-08-16 Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56283','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/56283">Water balance of pine forests: Synthesis of new and published results</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Pantana Tor-ngern; Ram Oren; Sari Palmroth; Kimberly Novick; Andrew Oishi; Sune Linder; Mikaell Ottosson-Lofvenius; Torgny Nasholm 2018-01-01 The forest hydrologic cycle is expected to have important feedback responses to climate change, impacting processes ranging from local water supply and primary productivity to global water and energy cycles. Here, we analyzed water budgets of pine forests worldwide. We first estimated local water balance of forests dominated by two wide-ranging species:Â Pinus... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52091','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/52091">Ecosystem evapotranspiration: challenges in measurements, estimates, and modeling</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Devendra Amatya; S. Irmak; P. Gowda; Ge Sun; J.E. Nettles; K.R. Douglas-Mankin 2016-01-01 Evapotranspiration (ET) processes at the leaf to landscape scales in multiple land uses have important controlsÂ and feedbacks for local, regional, and global climate and water resource systems. Innovative methods, tools, andÂ technologies for improved understanding and quantification of ET and crop water use are critical for adapting more effectiveÂ management strategies... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29628526','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29628526">The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert 2017-11-01 Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.U12B..03R','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2003AGUFM.U12B..03R">Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ravelo, A. C. 2003-12-01 The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B13J..10L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B13J..10L">Opposing effects of fire severity on climate feedbacks in Siberian larch forests</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Loranty, M. M.; Alexander, H. D.; Natali, S.; Kropp, H.; Mack, M. C.; Bunn, A. G.; Davydov, S. P.; Erb, A.; Kholodov, A. L.; Schaaf, C.; Wang, Z.; Zimov, N.; Zimov, S. A. 2017-12-01 Boreal larch forests in northeastern Siberia comprise nearly 25% of the continuous permafrost zone. Structural and functional changes in these ecosystems will have important climate feedbacks at regional and global scales. Like boreal ecosystems in North America, fire is an important determinant of landscape scale forest distribution, and fire regimes are intensifying as climate warms. In Siberian larch forests are dominated by a single tree species, and there is evidence that fire severity influences post-fire forest density via impacts on seedling establishment. The extent to which these effects occur, or persist, and the associated climate feedbacks are not well quantified. In this study we use forest stand inventories, in situ observations, and satellite remote sensing to examine: 1) variation in forest density within and between fire scars, and 2) changes in land surface albedo and active layer dynamics associated with forest density variation. At the landscape scale we observed declines in Landsat derived albedo as forests recovered in the first several decades after fire, though canopy cover varied widely within and between individual fire scars. Within an individual mid-successional fire scar ( 75 years) we observed canopy cover ranging from 15-90% with correspondingly large ranges of albedo during periods of snow cover, and relatively small differences in albedo during the growing season. We found an inverse relationship between canopy density and soil temperature within this fire scar; high-density low-albedo stands had cooler soils and shallower active layers, while low-density stands had warmer soils and deeper active layers. Intensive energy balance measurements at a high- and low- density site show that canopy cover alters the magnitude and timing of ground heat fluxes that affect active layer properties. Our results show that fire impacts on stand structure in Siberian larch forests affect land surface albedo and active layer dynamics in ways that may lead to opposing climate feedbacks. At effectively large scales these changes constitute positive and negative climate feedbacks, respectively. Accurate predictive understanding of terrestrial Arctic climate feedbacks requires improved knowledge regarding the ecological consequences of changing fire regimes in Siberian boreal forests. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23532038','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23532038">The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Bintanja, R; van der Linden, E C 2013-01-01 Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_18");'>18</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li class="active">20</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_21" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="401"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3609024','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=3609024">The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Bintanja, R.; van der Linden, E. C. 2013-01-01 Ongoing and projected greenhouse warming clearly manifests itself in the Arctic regions, which warm faster than any other part of the world. One of the key features of amplified Arctic warming concerns Arctic winter warming (AWW), which exceeds summer warming by at least a factor of 4. Here we use observation-driven reanalyses and state-of-the-art climate models in a variety of standardised climate change simulations to show that AWW is strongly linked to winter sea ice retreat through the associated release of surplus ocean heat gained in summer through the ice-albedo feedback (~25%), and to infrared radiation feedbacks (~75%). Arctic summer warming is surprisingly modest, even after summer sea ice has completely disappeared. Quantifying the seasonally varying changes in Arctic temperature and sea ice and the associated feedbacks helps to more accurately quantify the likelihood of Arctic's climate changes, and to assess their impact on local ecosystems and socio-economic activities. PMID:23532038 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120003983','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20120003983">AIRS-Observed Interrelationships of Anomaly Time-Series of Moist Process-Related Parameters and Inferred Feedback Values on Various Spatial Scales</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Molnar, Gyula I.; Susskind, Joel; Iredell, Lena 2011-01-01 In the beginning, a good measure of a GMCs performance was their ability to simulate the observed mean seasonal cycle. That is, a reasonable simulation of the means (i.e., small biases) and standard deviations of TODAY?S climate would suffice. Here, we argue that coupled GCM (CG CM for short) simulations of FUTURE climates should be evaluated in much more detail, both spatially and temporally. Arguably, it is not the bias, but rather the reliability of the model-generated anomaly time-series, even down to the [C]GCM grid-scale, which really matter. This statement is underlined by the social need to address potential REGIONAL climate variability, and climate drifts/changes in a manner suitable for policy decisions. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.P11C3764W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.P11C3764W">The Sensitivity of Earth's Climate History To Changes In The Rates of Biological And Geological Evolution</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Waltham, D. 2014-12-01 The faint young Sun paradox (early Earth had surface liquid water despite solar luminosity 70% of the modern value) implies that our planet's albedo has increased through time and/or greenhouse warming has fallen. The obvious explanation is that negative feedback processes stabilized temperatures. However, the limited temperature data available does not exhibit the expected residual temperature rise and, at least for the Phanerozoic, estimates of climate sensitivity exceed the Planck sensitivity (the zero net-feedback value). The alternate explanation is that biological and geological evolution have tended to cool Earth through time hence countering solar-driven warming. The coincidence that Earth-evolution has roughly cancelled Solar-evolution can then be explained as an emergent property of a complex system (the Gaia hypothesis) or the result of the unavoidable observational bias that Earth's climate history must be compatible with our existence (the anthropic principle). Here, I use a simple climate model to investigate the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in the rate of Earth-evolution. Earth-evolution is represented by an effective emissivity which has an intrinsic variation through time (due to continental growth, the evolution of cyanobacteria, orbital fluctuations etc) plus a linear feedback term which enhances emissivity variations. An important feature of this model is a predicted maximum in the radiated-flux versus temperature function. If the increasing solar flux through time had exceeded this value then runaway warming would have occurred. For the best-guess temperature history and climate sensitivity, the Earth has always been within a few percent of this maximum. There is no obvious Gaian explanation for this flux-coincidence but the anthropic principle naturally explains it: If the rate of biological/geological evolution is naturally slow then Earth is a fortunate outlier which evolved just fast enough to avoid solar-induced over-heating. However, there are large uncertainties concerning the temperature history of our planet and concerning climate sensitivity in the Archean and Proterozoic. When these are included, the solar-flux through time might have been as little as 70-90 % of the maximum thus reducing the significance of the flux-coincidence. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1368124-biospheric-feedback-effects-synchronously-coupled-model-human-earth-systems','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1368124-biospheric-feedback-effects-synchronously-coupled-model-human-earth-systems">Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D. Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED12A..01W','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFMED12A..01W">Development, Implementation, and Assessment of Climate Curricular Materials for Introductory Undergraduates: Lessons Learned from the InTeGrate Project's Climate of Change Module</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Walker, B.; Fadem, C. M.; Shellito, L. J. 2014-12-01 Designing climate change curricular materials suitable for wide adoption across institutions and academic disciplines (including those outside of the geosciences) requires collaboration among faculty at different types of institutions and consideration of a variety of student populations, learning styles, and course formats. The Interdisciplinary Teaching of Geoscience for a Sustainable Future (InTeGrate) project, an NSF STEP Center program, provides opportunities for faculty to develop 2-3 week teaching modules to engage students in understanding the intersections between geoscience topics and societal issues. From 2012-2014, a team of 3 faculty from a liberal arts college, comprehensive university, and community college developed, implemented, assessed, and revised a 2-3 week module for introductory undergraduates entitled "Climate of change: interactions and feedbacks between water, air, and ice". The module uses authentic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere data from several regions to illustrate how climate impacts human societies and that the climate system has interacting components complicated by feedbacks, uncertainties, and human behavioral decisions. Students also consider past and present human adaptations to climate fluctuations. The module was piloted in introductory geology, meteorology, and oceanography courses during the 2012-2013 academic year, during which time formative and summative assessments were administered and used to modify the curricular materials. We will provide an overview of the module's content, instructional strategies involved in implementing the module, and methods of formative and summative assessment. We will also report on lessons learned during the development, piloting, revision, and publishing process, the importance of fostering partnerships between faculty from different institution types, and design approaches that promote widespread adoption of climate curricular materials. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A43G0387S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.A43G0387S">Impacts of Ozone-vegetation Interactions and Biogeochemical Feedbacks on Atmospheric Composition and Air Quality Under Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Sadeke, M.; Tai, A. P. K.; Lombardozzi, D.; Val Martin, M. 2015-12-01 Surface ozone pollution is one of the major environmental concerns due to its damaging effects on human and vegetation. One of the largest uncertainties of future surface ozone prediction comes from its interaction with vegetation under a changing climate. Ozone can be modulated by vegetation through, e.g., biogenic emissions, dry deposition and transpiration. These processes are in turn affected by chronic exposure to ozone via lowered photosynthesis rate and stomatal conductance. Both ozone and vegetation growth are expected to be altered by climate change. To better understand these climate-ozone-vegetation interactions and possible feedbacks on ozone itself via vegetation, we implement an online ozone-vegetation scheme [Lombardozzi et al., 2015] into the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with active atmospheric chemistry, climate and land surface components. Previous overestimation of surface ozone in eastern US, Canada and Europe is shown to be reduced by >8 ppb, reflecting improved model-observation comparison. Simulated surface ozone is lower by 3.7 ppb on average globally. Such reductions (and improvements) in simulated ozone are caused mainly by lower isoprene emission arising from reduced leaf area index in response to chronic ozone exposure. Effects via transpiration are also potentially significant but require better characterization. Such findings suggest that ozone-vegetation interaction may substantially alter future ozone simulations, especially under changing climate and ambient CO2 levels, which would further modulate ozone-vegetation interactions. Inclusion of such interactions in Earth system models is thus necessary to give more realistic estimation and prediction of surface ozone. This is crucial for better policy formulation regarding air quality, land use and climate change mitigation. Reference list: Lombardozzi, D., et al. "The Influence of Chronic Ozone Exposure on Global Carbon and Water Cycles." Journal of Climate 28.1 (2015): 292-305. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1436930-functional-response-metric-temperature-sensitivity-tropical-ecosystems','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1436930-functional-response-metric-temperature-sensitivity-tropical-ecosystems">A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M. Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1438763-evaluating-emergent-constraints-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1438763-evaluating-emergent-constraints-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity">Evaluating Emergent Constraints for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. 2018-04-23 Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and have skill predicting future climate. Here, this study explores 19 previously proposed emergent constraints related to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the global-average equilibrium surface temperature response to CO 2 doubling). Several constraints are shown to be closely related, emphasizing the importance for careful understanding of proposed constraints. A new method is presented for decomposing correlation between an emergent constraint and ECS into terms related to physical processes and geographical regions. Using this decomposition, one can determine whether the processes and regions explaining correlation with ECS correspond to the physicalmore » explanation offered for the constraint. Shortwave cloud feedback is generally found to be the dominant contributor to correlations with ECS because it is the largest source of intermodel spread in ECS. In all cases, correlation results from interaction between a variety of terms, reflecting the complex nature of ECS and the fact that feedback terms and forcing are themselves correlated with each other. For 4 of the 19 constraints, the originally proposed explanation for correlation is borne out by our analysis. These four constraints all predict relatively high climate sensitivity. The credibility of six other constraints is called into question owing to correlation with ECS coming mainly from unexpected sources and/or lack of robustness to changes in ensembles. Another six constraints lack a testable explanation and hence cannot be confirmed. Lastly, the fact that this study casts doubt upon more constraints than it confirms highlights the need for caution when identifying emergent constraints from small ensembles.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1436930-functional-response-metric-temperature-sensitivity-tropical-ecosystems','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1436930-functional-response-metric-temperature-sensitivity-tropical-ecosystems">A Functional Response Metric for the Temperature Sensitivity of Tropical Ecosystems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen; Basile, Samantha J.; Hoffman, Forrest M. 2018-04-23 Earth system models (ESMs) simulate a large spread in carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change, particularly in their prediction of cumulative changes in terrestrial carbon storage. Evaluating the performance of ESMs against observations and assessing the likelihood of long-term climate predictions are crucial for model development. Here, we assessed the use of atmospheric CO 2 growth rate variations to evaluate the sensitivity of tropical ecosystem carbon fluxes to interannual temperature variations. We found that the temperature sensitivity of the observed CO 2 growth rate depended on the time scales over which atmospheric CO 2 observations were averaged. The temperature sensitivitymore » of the CO 2 growth rate during Northern Hemisphere winter is most directly related to the tropical carbon flux sensitivity since winter variations in Northern Hemisphere carbon fluxes are relatively small. This metric can be used to test the fidelity of interactions between the physical climate system and terrestrial ecosystems within ESMs, which is especially important since the short-term relationship between ecosystem fluxes and temperature stress may be related to the long-term feedbacks between ecosystems and climate. If the interannual temperature sensitivity is used to constrain long-term temperature responses, the inferred sensitivity may be biased by 20%, unless the seasonality of the relationship between the observed CO 2 growth rate and tropical fluxes is taken into account. Lastly, these results suggest that atmospheric data can be used directly to evaluate regional land fluxes from ESMs, but underscore that the interaction between the time scales for land surface processes and those for atmospheric processes must be considered.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438763-evaluating-emergent-constraints-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1438763-evaluating-emergent-constraints-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity">Evaluating Emergent Constraints for Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Caldwell, Peter M.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A. Emergent constraints are quantities that are observable from current measurements and have skill predicting future climate. Here, this study explores 19 previously proposed emergent constraints related to equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; the global-average equilibrium surface temperature response to CO 2 doubling). Several constraints are shown to be closely related, emphasizing the importance for careful understanding of proposed constraints. A new method is presented for decomposing correlation between an emergent constraint and ECS into terms related to physical processes and geographical regions. Using this decomposition, one can determine whether the processes and regions explaining correlation with ECS correspond to the physicalmore » explanation offered for the constraint. Shortwave cloud feedback is generally found to be the dominant contributor to correlations with ECS because it is the largest source of intermodel spread in ECS. In all cases, correlation results from interaction between a variety of terms, reflecting the complex nature of ECS and the fact that feedback terms and forcing are themselves correlated with each other. For 4 of the 19 constraints, the originally proposed explanation for correlation is borne out by our analysis. These four constraints all predict relatively high climate sensitivity. The credibility of six other constraints is called into question owing to correlation with ECS coming mainly from unexpected sources and/or lack of robustness to changes in ensembles. Another six constraints lack a testable explanation and hence cannot be confirmed. Lastly, the fact that this study casts doubt upon more constraints than it confirms highlights the need for caution when identifying emergent constraints from small ensembles.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B54C..01K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B54C..01K">Climatological temperature senstivity of soil carbon turnover: Observations, simple scaling models, and ESMs</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Koven, C. D.; Hugelius, G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wieder, W. R. 2016-12-01 The projected loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere resulting from climate change is a potentially large but highly uncertain feedback to warming. The magnitude of this feedback is poorly constrained by observations and theory, and is disparately represented in Earth system models. To assess the likely long-term response of soils to climate change, spatial gradients in soil carbon turnover times can identify broad-scale and long-term controls on the rate of carbon cycling as a function of climate and other factors. Here we show that the climatological temperature control on carbon turnover in the top meter of global soils is more sensitive in cold climates than in warm ones. We present a simplified model that explains the high cold-climate sensitivity using only the physical scaling of soil freeze-thaw state across climate gradients. Critically, current Earth system models (ESMs) fail to capture this pattern, however it emerges from an ESM that explicitly resolves vertical gradients in soil climate and turnover. The weak tropical temperature sensitivity emerges from a different model that explicitly resolves mineralogical control on decomposition. These results support projections of strong future carbon-climate feedbacks from northern soils and demonstrate a method for ESMs to capture this emergent behavior. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Natur.518...49M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015Natur.518...49M">Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Martínez-Botí, M. A.; Foster, G. L.; Chalk, T. B.; Rohling, E. J.; Sexton, P. F.; Lunt, D. J.; Pancost, R. D.; Badger, M. P. S.; Schmidt, D. N. 2015-02-01 Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA600986','DTIC-ST'); return false;" href="http://www.dtic.mil/docs/citations/ADA600986">Early Student Support to Investigate the Role of Sea Ice-Albedo Feedback in Sea Ice Predictions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.dtic.mil/">DTIC Science & Technology</a> 2013-09-30 with a heritage stemming from work by Thorndike et al (1975), Bitz et al (2001), and Lipscomb (2001). The sea ice thermodynamics is from Bitz and...K. Shell, J. Kiehl and C. Shields, 2008: Quantifying climate feedbacks using ra- diative kernels. J. Climate, 21, 3504–3520. Thorndike , A. S </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1240921','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1240921"></a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E. The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090019754&hterms=Change+climate&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DChange%2Bclimate','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090019754&hterms=Change+climate&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D30%26Ntt%3DChange%2Bclimate">Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Fetzer, Eric 2007-01-01 This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19800023527">On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Reiter, E. R. 1979-01-01 Various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean atmosphere system were studied. A variability pattern of sea surface temperature with a quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) was detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's were pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. Interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A21H3130P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A21H3130P">The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Pincus, R.; Stevens, B. B.; Forster, P.; Collins, W.; Ramaswamy, V. 2014-12-01 The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP): Assessment and characterization of forcing to enable feedback studies An enormous amount of attention has been paid to the diversity of responses in the CMIP and other multi-model ensembles. This diversity is normally interpreted as a distribution in climate sensitivity driven by some distribution of feedback mechanisms. Identification of these feedbacks relies on precise identification of the forcing to which each model is subject, including distinguishing true error from model diversity. The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) aims to disentangle the role of forcing from model sensitivity as determinants of varying climate model response by carefully characterizing the radiative forcing to which such models are subject and by coordinating experiments in which it is specified. RFMIP consists of four activities: 1) An assessment of accuracy in flux and forcing calculations for greenhouse gases under past, present, and future climates, using off-line radiative transfer calculations in specified atmospheres with climate model parameterizations and reference models 2) Characterization and assessment of model-specific historical forcing by anthropogenic aerosols, based on coordinated diagnostic output from climate models and off-line radiative transfer calculations with reference models 3) Characterization of model-specific effective radiative forcing, including contributions of model climatology and rapid adjustments, using coordinated climate model integrations and off-line radiative transfer calculations with a single fast model 4) Assessment of climate model response to precisely-characterized radiative forcing over the historical record, including efforts to infer true historical forcing from patterns of response, by direct specification of non-greenhouse-gas forcing in a series of coordinated climate model integrations This talk discusses the rationale for RFMIP, provides an overview of the four activities, and presents preliminary motivating results. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H14F..06L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012AGUFM.H14F..06L">Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T. 2012-12-01 This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H42B..05G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.H42B..05G">Why we shouldn't underestimate the impact of plant functional diversity</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Groner, V.; Raddatz, T.; Reick, C. H.; Claussen, M. 2017-12-01 We present a series of coupled land-atmosphere simulations with different combinations of plant functional types (PFTs) from mid-Holocene to preindustrial to show how plant functional diversity affects simulated climate-vegetation interaction under changing environmental conditions in subtropical Africa. Scientists nowadays agree that the establishment of the ``green'' Sahara was triggered by external changes in the Earth's orbit and amplified by internal feedback mechanisms. The timing and abruptness of the transition to the ``desert'' state are in turn still under debate. While some previous studies indicated an abrupt collapse of vegetation implying a strong climate-vegetation feedback, others suggested a gradual vegetation decline thereby questioning the existence of a strong climate-vegetation feedback. However, none of these studies explicitly accounted for the role of plant diversity. We show that the introduction or removal of a single PFT can bring about significant impacts on the simulated climate-vegetation system response to changing orbital forcing. While simulations with the standard set of PFTs show a gradual decrease of precipitation and vegetation cover over time, the reduction of plant functional diversity can cause either an abrupt decline of both variables or an even slower response to the external forcing. PFT composition seems to be the decisive factor for the system response to external forcing, and an increase in plant functional diversity does not necessarily increase the stability of the climate-vegetation system. From this we conclude that accounting for plant functional diversity in future studies - not only on palaeo climates - could significantly improve the understanding of climate-vegetation interaction in semi-arid regions, the predictability of the vegetation response to changing climate, and respectively, of the resulting feedback on precipitation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ESD.....4...95B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ESD.....4...95B">Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H. 2013-04-01 We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon cycle range. These high-end simulations can be linked to sampling a number of stronger carbon cycle feedbacks and to sampling climate sensitivities above 4.5 K. This latter aspect highlights the priority in identifying real-world climate-sensitivity constraints which, if achieved, would lead to reductions on the upper bound of projected global mean temperature change. The ensembles of simulations presented here provides a framework to explore relationships between present-day observables and future changes, while the large spread of future-projected changes highlights the ongoing need for such work. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_19");'>19</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li class="active">21</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_22" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="421"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610432J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGUGA..1610432J">Describing the direct and indirect radiative effects of atmospheric aerosols over Europe by using coupled meteorology-chemistry simulations: a contribution from the AQMEII-Phase II exercise</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Balzarini, Alessandra; Baró, Rocío; Curci, Gabriele; Forkel, Renate; Hirtl, Marcus; Honzak, Luka; Langer, Matthias; Pérez, Juan L.; Pirovano, Guido; San José, Roberto; Tuccella, Paolo; Werhahn, Johannes; Zabkar, Rahela 2014-05-01 The study of the response of the aerosol levels in the atmosphere to a changing climate and how this affects the radiative budget of the Earth (direct, semi-direct and indirect effects) is an essential topic to build confidence on climate science, since these feedbacks involve the largest uncertainties nowadays. Air quality-climate interactions (AQCI) are, therefore, a key, but uncertain contributor to the anthropogenic forcing that remains poorly understood. To build confidence in the AQCI studies, regional-scale integrated meteorology-atmospheric chemistry models (i.e., models with on-line chemistry) that include detailed treatment of aerosol life cycle and aerosol impacts on radiation (direct effects) and clouds (indirect effects) are in demand. In this context, the main objective of this contribution is the study and definition of the uncertainties in the climate-chemistry-aerosol-cloud-radiation system associated to the direct radiative forcing and the indirect effect caused by aerosols over Europe, using an ensemble of fully-coupled meteorology-chemistry model simulations with the WRF-Chem model run under the umbrella of AQMEII-Phase 2 international initiative. Simulations were performed for Europe for the entire year 2010. According to the common simulation strategy, the year was simulated as a sequence of 2-day time slices. For better comparability, the seven groups applied the same grid spacing of 23 km and shared common processing of initial and boundary conditions as well as anthropogenic and fire emissions. With exception of a simulation with different cloud microphysics, identical physics options were chosen while the chemistry options were varied. Two model set-ups will be considered here: one sub-ensemble of simulations not taking into account any aerosol feedbacks (the baseline case) and another sub-ensemble of simulations which differs from the former by the inclusion of aerosol-radiation feedback. The existing differences for meteorological variables (mainly 2-m temperature and precipitation) and air quality levels (mainly ozone an PM10) between both sub-ensembles of WRF-Chem simulations have been characterized. In the case of ozone and PM10, an increase in solar radiation and temperature has generally resulted in an enhanced photochemical activity and therefore a negative feedback (areas with low aerosol concentrations present more than 50 W m-2 higher global radiation for cloudy conditions). However, simulated feedback effects between aerosol concentrations and meteorological variables and on pollutant distributions strongly depend on the model configuration and the meteorological situation. These results will help providing improved science-based foundations to better assess the impacts of climate variability, support the development of effective climate change policies and optimize private decision-making. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A53M..01B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.A53M..01B">Processes governing the temperature structure of the tropical tropopause layer (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Birner, T. 2013-12-01 The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is among the most important but least understood regions of the global climate system. The TTL sets the boundary condition for atmospheric tracers entering the stratosphere. Specifically, TTL temperatures control stratospheric water vapor concentrations, which play a key role in the radiative budget of the entire stratosphere with implications for tropospheric and surface climate. The TTL shows a curious stratification structure: temperature continues to decrease beyond the level of main convective outflow (~200 hPa) up to the cold point tropopause (~100 hPa), but TTL lapse rates are smaller than in the upper troposphere. A cold point tropopause well separated from the level of main convective outflow requires TTL cooling which may be the result of: 1) the detailed radiative balance in the TTL, 2) large-scale upwelling (forced by extratropical or tropical waves), 3) the large-scale hydrostatic response aloft deep convective heating, 4) overshooting convection, 5) breaking gravity waves. All of these processes may act in isolation or combine to produce the observed TTL temperature structure. Here, a critical discussion of these processes / mechanisms and their role in lifting the cold point tropopause above the level of main convective outflow is presented. Results are based on idealized radiative-convective equilibrium model simulations, contrasting single-column with cloud-resolving simulations, as well on simulations with chemistry-climate models and reanalysis data. While all of the above processes are capable of producing a TTL-like region in isolation, their combination is found to produce important feedbacks. In particular, both water vapor and ozone are found to have strong radiative effects on TTL temperatures, highlighting important feedbacks between transport circulations setting temperatures and tracer structures and the resulting tracer structures in turn affecting temperatures. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CliPa..13.1243S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017CliPa..13.1243S">The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J. 2017-09-01 Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice-albedo feedback predominates the surface-height-temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B23F..04H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.B23F..04H">Post-Glacial Climate Forcing of Surface Processes in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hein, C. J.; Galy, V.; France-Lanord, C.; Galy, A.; Kudrass, H. R.; Peucker-Ehrenbrink, B. 2016-12-01 Silicate weathering coupled with carbonate precipitation and organic carbon (OC) burial in marine sediments are the primary mechanisms sequestering atmospheric CO2 over a range of timescales. The efficiency of both processes has long been mechanistically linked to climate: increased atmospheric CO2 sequestration under warm/wet conditions acts as a negative feedback, thereby contributing to global climate regulation. Over glacial-interglacial timescales, climate has been proposed to control the export rate of terrestrial silicate weathering products and terrestrial OC to river-dominated margins, as well as the rates of chemical weathering (i.e., the efficiency of carbon sequestration). Focused on the Ganges-Brahmaputra drainage basin, this study quantifies the relative role of climate change in the efficiency of silicate weathering and OC burial following the last glacial maximum. Stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic compositions of terrestrial plant wax compounds preserved in the Bengal Fan channel-levee system capture variations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon and vegetation dynamics. Specifically, a 40‰ shift in δD and a 4‰ shift in both bulk OC and plant wax δ13C values between the late glacial and mid-Holocene, followed by a return to more intermediate values during the late Holocene, correlate well with regional post-glacial paleoclimate records. Sediment provenance proxies (Sr, Nd isotopic compositions) reveal that these changes coincided with a focusing of erosion on the southern flank of the Himalayan range during periods of greater monsoon strength and enhanced sediment discharge. However, OC loading, and thus carbon burial efficiency, in the Bengal Fan remained constant through time, demonstrating the primacy of physical erosion and climate-driven sediment export in marine OC sequestration. In contrast, a gradual increase in K/Si* and Ca/Si, and decrease in H2O+/Si*, throughout the study period may demonstrate the decoupling of climate and silicate weathering during the late Holocene, if those ratios are valid proxies for catchment-scale chemical weathering intensity. Together, these results reveal the dominant feedback between climate and sediment-export / OC-burial within the Ganges-Brahmaputra / Bengal Fan system following deglaciation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1412689','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1412689">Collaborative Research: Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Melillo, Jerry Our overall goal in this research was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal was motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite ofmore » numerical experiments that encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we tested the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming. In collaboration with our Purdue and MIT colleagues, we have attempted to quantify global climate warming effects on land-atmosphere interactions, land-river network interactions, permafrost degradation, vegetation shifts, and land use influence water, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes to and from terrestrial ecosystems in the pan-arctic along with their uncertainties. Based on our study results along with a review of observed and projected climate changes in Northern Eurasia by others, we have also outlined a more integrated modelling approach that may be developed and applied in future studies to better capture the influence of earth system feedbacks and human activities on the evolution of climate change effects over time. Specifically, we have examined: 1) how evapotranspiration and water availability have been changing in Northern Eurasia and may change in the future including the impact of forcing uncertainties (Liu et al., 2013, 2014, 2015); 2) how soil consumption of atmospheric methane across the globe have been influenced and may be influenced by climate change and nitrogen deposition during the 20th and 21st centuries (Zhuang et al., 2013); 3) how wetland inundation extent influences net CO2 and CH4 fluxes from northern high latitudes (Zhuang et al., 2015); 4) the relative effects of various environmental factors (including permafrost degradation) on terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loading of river networks across the pan-Arctic and how they have changed over the 20th century (Kicklighter et al., 2013); 5) the impacts of recent and future permafrost thaw on land-atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange across the pan-Arctic (Gao et al., 2012, 2013; Hayes et al., 2014; Kicklighter et al. 2015a, 2018); 6) how climate-induced vegetation shifts may affect carbon fluxes and future land use in Northern Eurasia (Jiang et al., 2012, 2016; Kicklighter et al., 2014a) and the globe (Zhuang et al. 2015b); 7) the relative importance of legacies from past land use, future land-use change and climate change on projections of terrestrial carbon fluxes (Monier et al., 2015; Kicklighter et al., 2016); and 8) how the effects of earth system feedbacks and human activities can be better incorporated in assessments of climate change impacts (Monier et al., 2017; Groisman et al., 2018).« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPA41A0285G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMPA41A0285G">Using Online Dialogues to Connect Local Leaders and Climate Experts: Methods, Feedback and Lessons Learned from the Resilience Dialogues</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Goodwin, M.; Pandya, R.; Weaver, C. P.; Zerbonne, S.; Bennett, N.; Spangler, B. 2017-12-01 Inclusive, multi-stakeholder dialogue, participatory planning and actionable science are necessary for just and effective climate resilience outcomes. How can we support that in practice? The Resilience Dialogues launched a public Beta in 2016-2017 to allow scientists and resilience practitioners to engage with local leaders from 10 communities around the US through a series of facilitated, online dialogues. We developed two, one-week dialogues for each community: one to consider ways to respond to observed and anticipated climate impacts through a resilience lens, and one to identify next steps and resources to advance key priorities. We divided the communities into three cohorts and refined the structure and facilitation strategy for these dialogues from one to the next based on participant feedback. This adaptive method helped participants engage in the dialogues more effectively and develop useful results. We distributed a survey to all participants following each cohort to capture feedback on the use and utility of the dialogues. While there was room for improvement in the program's technical interface, survey participants valued the dialogues and the opportunity to engage as equals. Local leaders said the dialogues helped identify new local pathways to approach resilience priorities. They felt they benefited from focused conversation and personalized introductions to best-matched resources. Practitioners learned how local leaders seek to apply climate science, and how to effectively communicate their expertise to community leaders in support of local planning efforts. We learned there is demand for specialized dialogues on issues like communication, financing and extreme weather. Overall, the desire of participants to continue to engage through this program, and others to enter, indicates that facilitated, open conversations between experts and local leaders can break down communication and access barriers between climate services providers and end-users. This presentation will share lessons learned from this process and methods that we found most effective. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/41704','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/41704">Terrestrial biosphere models need better representation of vegetation phenology: results from the North American Carbon Program Site Synthesis</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Andrew D. Richardson; Ryan S. Anderson; M. Altaf Arain; Alan G. Barr; Gil Bohrer; Guangsheng Chen; Jing M. Chen; Philippe Ciais; Kenneth J. David; Ankur R. Desai; Michael C. Dietze; Danilo Dragoni; Steven R. Garrity; Christopher M. Gough; Robert Grant; David Hollinger; Hank A. Margolis; Harry McCaughey; Mirco Migliavacca; Russel K. Monson; J. William Munger; Benjamin Poulter; Brett M. Raczka; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Alok K. Sahoo; Kevin Schaefer; Hanqin Tian; Rodrigo Vargas; Hans Verbeeck; Jingfeng Xiao; Yongkang Xue 2012-01-01 Phenology, by controlling the seasonal activity of vegetation on the land surface, plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis and other ecosystem processes, as well as competitive interactions and feedbacks to the climate system. We conducted an analysis to evaluate the representation of phenology, and the associated seasonality of ecosystem-scale CO </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27734086','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27734086">Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Julius, Susan H; Hoffman, Jennie; Koltes, Karen H; MacGowan, Petra 2017-01-01 The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.744Z','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2010ems..confE.744Z">Climate and anthropogenic impacts on forest vegetation derived from satellite data</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Zoran, M.; Savastru, R.; Savastru, D.; Tautan, M.; Miclos, S.; Baschir, L. 2010-09-01 Vegetation and climate interact through a series of complex feedbacks, which are not very well understood. The patterns of forest vegetation are largely determined by temperature, precipitation, solar irradiance, soil conditions and CO2 concentration. Vegetation impacts climate directly through moisture, energy, and momentum exchanges with the atmosphere and indirectly through biogeochemical processes that alter atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in forest vegetation land cover/use alter the surface albedo and radiation fluxes, leading to a local temperature change and eventually a vegetation response. This albedo (energy) feedback is particularly important when forests mask snow cover. Forest vegetation-climate feedback regimes are designated based on the temporal correlations between the vegetation and the surface temperature and precipitation. The different feedback regimes are linked to the relative importance of vegetation and soil moisture in determining land-atmosphere interactions. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modeling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal forest vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images over 1989 - 2009 period for a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and ETM satellite images and meteorological data. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. For investigated test area, considerable NDVI decline was observed for drought events during 2003 and 2007 years. Under stress conditions, it is evident that environmental factors such as soil type, parent material, and topography are not correlated with NDVI dynamics. Specific aim of this paper was to assess, forecast, and mitigate the risks of climatic changes on forest systems and its biodiversity as well as on adjacent environment areas and to provide early warning strategies on the basis of spectral information derived from satellite data regarding atmospheric effects of forest biome degradation . </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACPD...1312541B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013ACPD...1312541B">Online coupled regional meteorology-chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Baklanov, A.; Schluenzen, K. H.; Suppan, P.; Baldasano, J.; Brunner, D.; Aksoyoglu, S.; Carmichael, G.; Douros, J.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R.; Galmarini, S.; Gauss, M.; Grell, G.; Hirtl, M.; Joffre, S.; Jorba, O.; Kaas, E.; Kaasik, M.; Kallos, G.; Kong, X.; Korsholm, U.; Kurganskiy, A.; Kushta, J.; Lohmann, U.; Mahura, A.; Manders-Groot, A.; Maurizi, A.; Moussiopoulos, N.; Rao, S. T.; Savage, N.; Seigneur, C.; Sokhi, R.; Solazzo, E.; Solomos, S.; Sørensen, B.; Tsegas, G.; Vignati, E.; Vogel, B.; Zhang, Y. 2013-05-01 The simulation of the coupled evolution of atmospheric dynamics, pollutant transport, chemical reactions and atmospheric composition is one of the most challenging tasks in environmental modelling, climate change studies, and weather forecasting for the next decades as they all involve strongly integrated processes. Weather strongly influences air quality (AQ) and atmospheric transport of hazardous materials, while atmospheric composition can influence both weather and climate by directly modifying the atmospheric radiation budget or indirectly affecting cloud formation. Until recently, however, due to the scientific complexities and lack of computational power, atmospheric chemistry and weather forecasting have developed as separate disciplines, leading to the development of separate modelling systems that are only loosely coupled. The continuous increase in computer power has now reached a stage that enables us to perform online coupling of regional meteorological models with atmospheric chemical transport models. The focus on integrated systems is timely, since recent research has shown that meteorology and chemistry feedbacks are important in the context of many research areas and applications, including numerical weather prediction (NWP), AQ forecasting as well as climate and Earth system modelling. However, the relative importance of online integration and its priorities, requirements and levels of detail necessary for representing different processes and feedbacks can greatly vary for these related communities: (i) NWP, (ii) AQ forecasting and assessments, (iii) climate and earth system modelling. Additional applications are likely to benefit from online modelling, e.g.: simulation of volcanic ash or forest fire plumes, pollen warnings, dust storms, oil/gas fires, geo-engineering tests involving changes in the radiation balance. The COST Action ES1004 - European framework for online integrated air quality and meteorology modelling (EuMetChem) - aims at paving the way towards a new generation of online integrated atmospheric chemical transport and meteorology modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including dynamics, chemistry, clouds, radiation, boundary layer and emissions. As its first task, we summarise the current status of European modelling practices and experience with online coupled modelling of meteorology with atmospheric chemistry including feedback mechanisms and attempt reviewing the various issues connected to the different modules of such online coupled models but also providing recommendations for coping with them for the benefit of the modelling community at large. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMED33C0907T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMED33C0907T">Integrating Information Networks for Collective Planetary Stewardship</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tiwari, A. 2016-12-01 Responsible behaviour resulting from climate literacy in global environmental movement is limited to policy and planning institutions in the Global South, while remaining absent for ends-user. Thus, planetary stewardship exists only at earth system boundaries where pressures sink to the local scale while ethics remains afloat. Existing citizen participation is restricted within policy spheres, appearing synonymous to enforcements in social psychology. Much, accounted reason is that existing information mechanisms operate mostly through linear exchanges between institutions and users, therefore reinforcing only hierarchical relationships. This study discloses such relationships that contribute to broad networking gaps through information demand assessment of stakeholders in a dozen development projects based in South Asia. Two parameters widely used for this purpose are: a. Feedback: Ends-user feedback to improve consumption literacy of climate sensitive resources (through consumption displays, billing, advisory services ecolabelling, sensors) and, b. Institutional Policy: Rewarding punishing to enforce desired behaviour (subsidies, taxation). Research answered: 1. Who gets the information (Equity in Information Distribution)? As existing information publishing mechanisms are designed by and for analysts, 2. How information translates to climate action Transparency of Execution)? Findings suggested that climate goals manifested in economic policy, than environmental policy, have potential clear short-term benefits and costs, and coincide with people's economic goals Also grassroots roles for responsible behaviour are empowered with presence of end user information. Barier free climate communication process and decision making is ensured among multiplicity of stakeholders with often conflicting perspectives. Research finds significance where collaboration among information networks can better translate regional policies into local action for climate adaptation and resilience capacity building. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..866D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PalOc..31..866D">The climate response of the Indo-Pacific warm pool to glacial sea level</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Di Nezio, Pedro N.; Timmermann, Axel; Tierney, Jessica E.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Rosenbloom, Nan; Mapes, Brian; Neale, Rich; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Montenegro, Alvaro 2016-06-01 Growing climate proxy evidence suggests that changes in sea level are important drivers of tropical climate change on glacial-interglacial timescales. These paleodata suggest that rainfall patterns over the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are highly sensitive to the landmass configuration of the Maritime Continent and that lowered sea level contributed to large-scale drying during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, approximately 21,000 years B.P.). Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2 (CESM1), we investigate the mechanisms by which lowered sea level influenced the climate of the IPWP during the LGM. The CESM1 simulations show that, in agreement with previous hypotheses, changes in atmospheric circulation are initiated by the exposure of the Sunda and Sahul shelves. Ocean dynamical processes amplify the changes in atmospheric circulation by increasing the east-west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean. The coupled mechanism driving this response is akin to the Bjerknes feedback and results in a large-scale climatic reorganization over the Indian Ocean with impacts extending from east Africa to the western tropical Pacific. Unlike exposure of the Sunda shelf, exposure of Sahul shelf and the associated changes in surface albedo play a key role because of the positive feedback. This mechanism could explain the pattern of dry (wet) eastern (western) Indian Ocean identified in climate proxies and LGM simulations. However, this response also requires a strengthened SST gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean, a pattern that is not evident in marine paleoreconstructions. Strategies to resolve this issue are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED33B0941V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMED33B0941V">Climate Feedback: Bringing the Scientific Community to Provide Direct Feedback on the Credibility of Climate Media Coverage</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Vincent, E. M.; Matlock, T.; Westerling, A. L. 2015-12-01 While most scientists recognize climate change as a major societal and environmental issue, social and political will to tackle the problem is still lacking. One of the biggest obstacles is inaccurate reporting or even outright misinformation in climate change coverage that result in the confusion of the general public on the issue.In today's era of instant access to information, what we read online usually falls outside our field of expertise and it is a real challenge to evaluate what is credible. The emerging technology of web annotation could be a game changer as it allows knowledgeable individuals to attach notes to any piece of text of a webpage and to share them with readers who will be able to see the annotations in-context -like comments on a pdf.Here we present the Climate Feedback initiative that is bringing together a community of climate scientists who collectively evaluate the scientific accuracy of influential climate change media coverage. Scientists annotate articles sentence by sentence and assess whether they are consistent with scientific knowledge allowing readers to see where and why the coverage is -or is not- based on science. Scientists also summarize the essence of their critical commentary in the form of a simple article-level overall credibility rating that quickly informs readers about the credibility of the entire piece.Web-annotation allows readers to 'hear' directly from the experts and to sense the consensus in a personal way as one can literaly see how many scientists agree with a given statement. It also allows a broad population of scientists to interact with the media, notably early career scientists.In this talk, we will present results on the impacts annotations have on readers -regarding their evaluation of the trustworthiness of the information they read- and on journalists -regarding their reception of scientists comments.Several dozen scientists have contributed to this effort to date and the system offers potential to scale up as it relies on a crowdsourced process where each scientist only makes small contributions that get aggregated together. The project aims to build a network of scientists with varied expertise and to organize their efforts at a global scale to efficiently peer-review major news coverage on climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.8624L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015GeoRL..42.8624L">Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fisher, Rosie A. 2015-10-01 Earth System Models typically use static responses to temperature to calculate photosynthesis and respiration, but experimental evidence suggests that many plants acclimate to prevailing temperatures. We incorporated representations of photosynthetic and leaf respiratory temperature acclimation into the Community Land Model, the terrestrial component of the Community Earth System Model. These processes increased terrestrial carbon pools by 20 Pg C (22%) at the end of the 21st century under a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate scenario. Including the less certain estimates of stem and root respiration acclimation increased terrestrial carbon pools by an additional 17 Pg C (~40% overall increase). High latitudes gained the most carbon with acclimation, and tropical carbon pools increased least. However, results from both of these regions remain uncertain; few relevant data exist for tropical and boreal plants or for extreme temperatures. Constraining these uncertainties will produce more realistic estimates of land carbon feedbacks throughout the 21st century. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..841H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017ClDy..tmp..841H">Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kandlbauer, Jessy; Valdes, Paul J.; Sparks, R. Stephen J. 2017-11-01 Volcanic eruptions are an important influence on decadal to centennial climate variability. Large eruptions lead to the formation of a stratospheric sulphate aerosol layer which can cause short-term global cooling. This response is modulated by feedback processes in the earth system, but the influence from future warming has not been assessed before. Using earth system model simulations we find that the eruption-induced cooling is significantly weaker in the future state. This is predominantly due to an increase in planetary albedo caused by increased tropospheric aerosol loading with a contribution from associated changes in cloud properties. The increased albedo of the troposphere reduces the effective volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. Reduced sea-ice coverage and hence feedbacks also contribute over high-latitudes, and an enhanced winter warming signal emerges in the future eruption ensemble. These findings show that the eruption response is a complex function of the environmental conditions, which has implications for the role of eruptions in climate variability in the future and potentially in the past. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10154049','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/10154049">International conference on the role of the polar regions in global change: Proceedings. Volume 2</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Weller, G.; Wilson, C.L.; Severin, B.A.B. 1991-12-01 The International Conference on the Role of the Polar Regions in Global Change took place on the campus of the University of Alaska Fairbanks on June 11--15, 1990. The goal of the conference was to define and summarize the state of knowledge on the role of the polar regions in global change, and to identify gaps in knowledge. To this purpose experts in a wide variety of relevant disciplines were invited to present papers and hold panel discussions. While there are numerous conferences on global change, this conference dealt specifically with the polar regions which occupy key positions in themore » global system. These two volumes of conference proceedings include papers on (1) detection and monitoring of change; (2) climate variability and climate forcing; (3) ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere interactions and processes; and (4) effects on biota and biological feedbacks; (5) ice sheet, glacier and permafrost responses and feedbacks, (6) paleoenvironmental studies; and, (7) aerosol and trace gases.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2363Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018ClDy..tmp.2363Y">Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian 2018-05-01 An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20947761','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20947761">Atmospheric CO2: principal control knob governing Earth's temperature.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lacis, Andrew A; Schmidt, Gavin A; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto A 2010-10-15 Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO(2), like ozone, N(2)O, CH(4), and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO(2) and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC52A..04S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFMGC52A..04S">Temperature extremes in a changing climate: Drivers and feedbacks (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M. 2013-12-01 Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne 2013: Using soil moisture forecasts for sub-seasonal temperature predictions in Europe. Submitted to Clim. Dyn.. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 3-4, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004. Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2013: Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25652996','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25652996">Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Martínez-Botí, M A; Foster, G L; Chalk, T B; Rohling, E J; Sexton, P F; Lunt, D J; Pancost, R D; Badger, M P S; Schmidt, D N 2015-02-05 Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_20");'>20</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li class="active">22</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_23" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="441"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSR...14..293H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AdSR...14..293H">Risk management perspective for climate service development - Results from a study on Finnish organizations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Harjanne, Atte; Haavisto, Riina; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa 2017-10-01 Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. However, understanding these processes can also create opportunities. Information can help to manage these risks and opportunities, but in order to do so, it must be in line with how risk management and decision making works. To better understand how climate risks and opportunities are reflected in different organizational processes and what types of information is needed and used, we conducted a study on the perceptions and management of weather and climate risks in Finnish organizations and on their use of weather and climate information. In addition, we collected feedback on how the existing climate information tools should be developed. Data on climate risk management was collected in an online survey and in one full-day workshop. The survey was aimed to the Finnish public and private organizations who use weather and climate data and altogether 118 responses were collected. The workshop consisted of two parts: weather and climate risk management processes in general and the development of the current information tools to further address user needs.We found that climate risk management in organizations is quite diverse and often de-centralized and that external experts are considered the most useful sources of information. Consequently, users emphasize the need for networks of expertise and sector-specific information tools. Creating such services requires input and information sharing from the user side as well. Better temporal and spatial accuracy is naturally asked for, but users also stressed the need for transparency when it comes to communicating uncertainties, and the availability and up-to-datedness of information. Our results illustrate that weather and climate risks compete and blend in with other risks and changes perceived by the organizations and supporting information is sought from different types of sources. Thus the design and evaluation of climate services should take into account the context of existing and developing processes in organizational risk management. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950051814&hterms=ocean+climate+changes&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Docean%2Bclimate%2Bchanges','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19950051814&hterms=ocean+climate+changes&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D60%26Ntt%3Docean%2Bclimate%2Bchanges">Century/millennium internal climate oscillations in an ocean-atmosphere-continental ice sheet model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Birchfield, Edward G.; Wang, Huaxiao; Rich, Jonathan J. 1994-01-01 We demonstrate in a simple climate model that there exist nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets capable of producing century/millennium timescale internal oscillations resembling those seen in the paleoclimate record. Feedbacks involve meridional heat and salt transports in the North Atlantic, surface ocean freshwater fluxes associated with melting and growing continental ice sheets in the northen hemisphere and with Atlantic to Pacific water vapor transport. The positive feedback between the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the meridional salt transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation tends to destabilize the climate system, while the negative feedback between the freshwater flux, either to or from the continental ice sheets, and meridional heat flux to the high-latitude North Atlantic, accomplished by the thermohaline circulation, stabilizes the system. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in both positive and negative feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. Because of asymmetries between the growth and melt phases the oscillations are, in general, accompanied by a growing or decreasing ice volume over each cycle, which in the model is reflected by increasing or decreasing mean salinity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE.598B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009ems..confE.598B">MEGAPOLI: concept and first results of multi-scale modelling of megacity impacts</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Baklanov, A. A.; Lawrence, M.; Pandis, S. 2009-09-01 The European FP7 project MEGAPOLI: ‘Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation' (http://megapoli.info), started in October 2008, brings together 27 leading European research groups from 11 countries, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from countries outside Europe to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main MEGAPOLI objectives are: 1. to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution hot-spots on local, regional and global air quality, 2. to quantify feedbacks among megacity air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change, 3. to develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities. In order to achieve these objectives the following tasks are realizing: • Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data, • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level, continuing to the city, regional and global scales, • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes, • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes, • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate, • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality, • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality, • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies, • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change, • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions. We follow a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate and global atmospheric chemistry. The project focuses on the multi-scale modelling of interacting meteorology and air quality, spanning the range from emissions to air quality, effects on climate, and feedbacks and mitigation potentials. Our hypothesis is that megacities around the world have an impact on air quality not only locally, but also regionally and globally and therefore can also influence the climate of our planet. Some of the links between megacities, air quality and climate are reasonably well-understood. However, a complete quantitative picture of these interactions is clearly missing. Understanding and quantifying these missing links is the focus of MEGAPOLI. The current status and modeling results after the first project year on examples of Paris and other European megacities are discussed. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53E2302N','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A53E2302N">On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A. 2017-12-01 The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC43E..06T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFMGC43E..06T">Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B. 2015-12-01 Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B13L..01A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B13L..01A">Hillslope Soils and Life (Invited)</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Amundson, R.; Owen, J. J.; Heimsath, A. M.; Yoo, K.; Dietrich, W. E. 2013-12-01 That hillslope processes are impacted by biology has been long understood, but the complexities of the abiotic-biotic processes and their feedbacks are quantitatively emerging with the growing body of pertinent literature. The concept that plants modulate both the disaggregation and transport of soil particles on hillslopes was clearly articulated by G.K. Gilbert. Yet earlier, James Hutton (starting from very different intellectual boundary conditions) argued that soil, which results from the dynamic balance of rock destruction and removal, is a prerequisite for plants - a concept that underscores the need to more deeply examine the feedback of geomorphic processes on terrestrial ecosystems. We compiled the results of recent studies that have been conducted on gentle convex hillslopes across a broad range of rainfall. We found that vegetated landscapes appear to have strong controls on hillslope soil thickness, landscape denudation rates, and soil residence times. The restricted range in residence times - despite large differences in climate - appear in turn to sustain relatively high levels of both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertility, suggesting ecological resilience and resistance to non-anthropogenic environmental perturbations. At the most arid end of Earth's climate vegetation disappears, but not all water. The loss of plants shifts soil erosion to abiotic processes, with a corresponding thinning or loss of the soil mantle. This reinforces the hypothesis that a planet without vegetation, but with a hydrologic cycle, would be largely devoid of soil-mantled hillslopes and would be driven toward hillslope morphologies that differ from the familiar convex-up forms of biotic landscapes. While our synthesis of the effects of vegetation on soil production and soil thickness provides a quantitative view of the suggestions of Gilbert, it also identifies that vegetation itself responds to the geomorphic processes, as believed by Hutton. There is a complex interplay between physical and biological processes on the Earth's surface that requires further elucidation in order to fully understand the ramifications of further climatic and physical alteration of our planet's surface. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U24A..04F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.U24A..04F">Whole Planet Coupling from Climate to Core: Implications for the Evolution of Rocky Planets and their Prospects for Habitability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Foley, B. J.; Driscoll, P. E. 2015-12-01 Many factors have conspired to make Earth a home to complex life. Earth has abundant water due to a combination of factors, including orbital distance and the climate regulating feedbacks of the long-term carbon cycle. Earth has plate tectonics, which is crucial for maintaining long-term carbon cycling and may have been an important energy source for the origin of life in seafloor hydrothermal systems. Earth also has a strong magnetic field that shields the atmosphere from the solar wind and the surface from high-energy particles. Synthesizing recent work on these topics shows that water, a temperate climate, plate tectonics, and a strong magnetic field are linked together through a series of negative feedbacks that stabilize the system over geologic timescales. Although the physical mechanism behind plate tectonics on Earth is still poorly understood, climate is thought to be important. In particular, temperate surface temperatures are likely necessary for plate tectonics because they allow for liquid water that may be capable of significantly lowering lithospheric strength, increase convective stresses in the lithosphere, and enhance the effectiveness of "damage" processes such as grainsize reduction. Likewise, plate tectonics is probably crucial for maintaining a temperate climate on Earth through its role in facilitating the long-term carbon cycle, which regulates atmospheric CO2 levels. Therefore, the coupling between plate tectonics and climate is a feedback that is likely of first order importance for the evolution of rocky planets. Finally, plate tectonics is thought to be important for driving the geodynamo. Plate tectonics efficiently cools the mantle, leading to vigorous thermo-chemical convection in the outer core and dynamo action; without plate tectonics inefficient mantle cooling beneath a stagnant lid may prevent a long-lived magnetic field. As the magnetic field shields a planet's atmosphere from the solar wind, the magnetic field may be important for preserving hydrogen, and therefore water, on the surface. Thus whole planet coupling between the magnetic field, atmosphere, mantle, and core is possible. We lay out the basic physics governing whole planet coupling, and discuss the implications this coupling has for the evolution of rocky planets and their prospects for hosting life. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC12B..05D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFMGC12B..05D">Quantified Objectives for Assessing the Contribution of Low Clouds to Climate Sensitivity and Variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Del Genio, A. D.; Platnick, S. E.; Bennartz, R.; Klein, S. A.; Marchand, R.; Oreopoulos, L.; Pincus, R.; Wood, R. 2016-12-01 Low clouds are central to leading-order questions in climate and subseasonal weather predictability, and are key to the NRC panel report's goals "to understand the signals of the Earth system under a changing climate" and "for improved models and model projections." To achieve both goals requires a mix of continuity observations to document the components of the changing climate and improvements in retrievals of low cloud and boundary layer dynamical/thermodynamic properties to ensure process-oriented observations that constrain the parameterized physics of the models. We discuss four climate/weather objectives that depend sensitively on understanding the behavior of low clouds: 1. Reduce uncertainty in GCM-inferred climate sensitivity by 50% by constraining subtropical low cloud feedbacks. 2. Eliminate the GCM Southern Ocean shortwave flux bias and its effect on cloud feedback and the position of the midlatitude storm track. 3. Eliminate the double Intertropical Convergence Zone bias in GCMs and its potential effects on tropical precipitation over land and the simulation and prediction of El Niño. 4. Increase the subseasonal predictability of tropical warm pool precipitation from 20 to 30 days. We envision advances in three categories of observations that would be highly beneficial for reaching these goals: 1. More accurate observations will facilitate more thorough evaluation of clouds in GCMs. 2. Better observations of the links between cloud properties and the environmental state will be used as the foundation for parameterization improvements. 3. Sufficiently long and higher quality records of cloud properties and environmental state will constrain low cloud feedback purely observationally. To accomplish this, the greatest need is to replace A-Train instruments, which are nearing end-of-life, with enhanced versions. The requirements are sufficient horizontal and vertical resolution to capture boundary layer cloud and thermodynamic spatial structure; more accurate determination of cloud condensate profiles and optical properties; near-coincident observations to permit multi-instrument retrievals and association with dynamic and thermodynamic structure; global coverage; and, for long-term monitoring, measurement and orbit stability and sufficient mission duration. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1203855-effects-climate-sensitivity-carbon-cycle-interactions-mitigation-policy-stringency','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1203855-effects-climate-sensitivity-carbon-cycle-interactions-mitigation-policy-stringency">The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A. 2015-07-01 Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040237&hterms=role+disturbance+ecosystem&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drole%2Bdisturbance%2Becosystem','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20060040237&hterms=role+disturbance+ecosystem&qs=N%3D0%26Ntk%3DAll%26Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntt%3Drole%2Bdisturbance%2Becosystem">Monitoring boreal ecosystem phenology with integrated active/passive microwave remote sensing</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> McDonald, K. C.; Njoku, E.; Kimball, J.; Running, S.; Thompson, C.; Lee, J. K. 2002-01-01 The important role of the high latitudes in the functioning of global processes is becoming well established. The size and remoteness of arctic and boreal ecosystems, however, pose a challenge to quantification of both terrestrial ecosystem processes and their feedbacks to regional and global climate conditions. Boreal and arctic regions form a complex land cover mosaic where vegetation structure, condition and distribution are strongly regulated by environmental factors such as moisture availability, permafrost, growing season length, disturbance and soil nutrients. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SJRUE..16...11L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015SJRUE..16...11L">Conceptualizing Stakeholders' Perceptions of Ecosystem Services: A Participatory Systems Mapping Approach</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lopes, Rita; Videira, Nuno 2015-12-01 A participatory system dynamics modelling approach is advanced to support conceptualization of feedback processes underlying ecosystem services and to foster a shared understanding of leverage intervention points. The process includes systems mapping workshop and follow-up tasks aiming at the collaborative construction of causal loop diagrams. A case study developed in a natural area in Portugal illustrates how a stakeholder group was actively engaged in the development of a conceptual model depicting policies for sustaining the climate regulation ecosystem service. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C23A1213G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.C23A1213G">The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J. 2017-12-01 Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35224','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/35224">Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> F. Stuart Chapin; James T. Randerson; A. David McGuire; Jonathan A. Foley; Christopher B. Field 2008-01-01 Ecosystems influence climate through multiple pathways, primarily by changing the energy, water, and greenhouse-gas balance of the atmosphere. Consequently, efforts to mitigate climate change through modification of one pathway, as with carbon in the Kyoto Protocol, only partially address the issue of ecosystem-climate interactions. For example, the cooling of climate... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765634','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29765634">Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B 2018-04-01 Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194465','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70194465">Grand challenges in understanding the interplay of climate and land changes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Liu, Shuguang; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Boysen, Lena R.; Ford, James D.; Fox, Andrew; Gallo, Kevin; Hatfield, Jerry L.; Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Zhihua; Loveland, Thomas R.; Norby, Richard J.; Sohl, Terry L.; Steiner, Allison L.; Yuan, Wenping; Zhang, Zhao; Zhao, Shuqing 2017-01-01 Half of Earth’s land surface has been altered by human activities, creating various consequences on the climate and weather systems at local to global scales, which in turn affect a myriad of land surface processes and the adaptation behaviors. This study reviews the status and major knowledge gaps in the interactions of land and atmospheric changes and present 11 grand challenge areas for the scientific research and adaptation community in the coming decade. These land-cover and land-use change (LCLUC)-related areas include 1) impacts on weather and climate, 2) carbon and other biogeochemical cycles, 3) biospheric emissions, 4) the water cycle, 5) agriculture, 6) urbanization, 7) acclimation of biogeochemical processes to climate change, 8) plant migration, 9) land-use projections, 10) model and data uncertainties, and, finally, 11) adaptation strategies. Numerous studies have demonstrated the effects of LCLUC on local to global climate and weather systems, but these putative effects vary greatly in magnitude and even sign across space, time, and scale and thus remain highly uncertain. At the same time, many challenges exist toward improved understanding of the consequences of atmospheric and climate change on land process dynamics and services. Future effort must improve the understanding of the scale-dependent, multifaceted perturbations and feedbacks between land and climate changes in both reality and models. To this end, one critical cross-disciplinary need is to systematically quantify and better understand measurement and model uncertainties. Finally, LCLUC mitigation and adaptation assessments must be strengthened to identify implementation barriers, evaluate and prioritize opportunities, and examine how decision-making processes work in specific contexts. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1715569S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..1715569S">Graduate training in Earth science across borders and disciplines: ArcTrain -"Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic"</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Stein, Rüdiger; Kucera, Michal; Walter, Maren; de Vernal, Anne 2015-04-01 Due to a complex set of feedback processes collectively known as "polar amplification", the Arctic realm is expected to experience a greater-than-average response to global climate forcing. The cascades of feedback processes that connect the Arctic cryosphere, ocean and atmosphere remain incompletely constrained by observations and theory and are difficult to simulate in climate models. Our capacity to predict the future of the region and assess the impacts of Arctic change processes on global and regional environments hinges on the availability of interdisciplinary experts with strong international experience and understanding of the science/society interface. This is the basis of the International Research Training Group "Processes and impacts of climate change in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic - ArcTrain", which was initiated in 2013. ArcTrain aims to educate PhD students in an interdisciplinary environment that combines paleoclimatology, physical oceanography, remote sensing and glaciology with comprehensive Earth system modelling, including sea-ice and ice-sheet components. The qualification program for the PhD students includes joint supervision, mandatory research residences at partner institutions, field courses on land and on sea (Floating University), annual meetings and training workshops and a challenging structured training in expert skills and transferrable skills. Its aim is to enhance the career prospects and employability of the graduates in a challenging international job market across academic and applied sectors. ArcTrain is a collaborative project at the University of Bremen and the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in Bremerhaven. The German part of the project is designed to continue for nine years and educate three cohorts of twelve PhD students each. The Canadian partners comprise a consortium of eight universities led by the GEOTOP cluster at the Université du Québec à Montréal and including Dalhousie University, McGill University, Memorial University of Newfoundland, University of Alberta, University of British Columbia, University of Calgary and Université du Québec à Rimouski. Further details about ArcTrain are available at: https://www.marum.de/ArcTrain.html </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.9211P','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.9211P">Future permafrost degradation positively enhances Arctic ecohydrological processes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Park, Hotaek; Walsh, John 2013-04-01 Permafrost is considered vulnerable to increasing temperatures. Air temperatures over the Arctic have indeed increased considerably over the last century. Most climate models project that the warming will continue, enhancing permafrost degradation. The degradation of permafrost has the potential to initiate numerous feedbacks, predominantly positive, in the Arctic climatic, hydrological, and biogeochemical processes. For instance, the Arctic terrestrial evapotranspiration during summer season tends to overpass precipitation of the period. The unbalance of water budget seems to be offset by permafrost contribution. A considerable amount of soil carbon cumulating within the permafrost is also released with permafrost degradation. However, it is still uncertain on how much amount of soil carbon will be released. Furthermore, the largest uncertainty is on the magnitude of permafrost degradation under the future climate change. Therefore, the major purpose of this study is to reduce the uncertainties relating to permafrost degradation and then is to assess influences of permafrost dynamics on ecohydrological processes. A land surface model CHANGE, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was applied to the pan-Arctic terrestrial region over the period 1901-2100. For exploring the influence of permafrost dynamics on ecohydrological processes in the future, outputs from four scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) of three GCMs (MIROC, CCSM4, and HadGCM2) were used for the simulation of CHANGE. Permafrost positively degraded with temperature warming. By 2091-2100, permafrost extent was decreased 30-75% and active layer thickness increased about 55-125 cm, compared to 1991-2010. Evapotranspiration (ET) and net primary productivity (NPP) also increased about 15-55%. However, higher ET resulted in soil dryness. On the other hand, the increased NPP enhanced soil organic matter, which increased soil water-holding capacity and limited soil warming due to its insulation effect. The model also predicted a cumulative efflux of 50-120 Gt C of permafrost carbon to the atmosphere by 2100. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and amplify surface warming to initiate a positive permafrost carbon feedback on climate. On the other hand, the conditions implicated to permafrost degradation tended to keep summertime ET and NPP relatively high. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1422431-impact-physics-parameterization-ordering-global-atmosphere-model','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1422431-impact-physics-parameterization-ordering-global-atmosphere-model">Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M. 2018-02-02 Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effectmore » of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAMES..10..481D','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018JAMES..10..481D">Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M. 2018-02-01 Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1422431-impact-physics-parameterization-ordering-global-atmosphere-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1422431-impact-physics-parameterization-ordering-global-atmosphere-model">Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Donahue, Aaron S.; Caldwell, Peter M. Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effectmore » of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k-means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.« less </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li class="active">23</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_24" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="461"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B13B0461F','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013AGUFM.B13B0461F">Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S. 2013-12-01 Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching reactions, carbonate precipitation, and clay formation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980019502','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/19980019502">Cloud Radiation Forcings and Feedbacks: General Circulation Model Tests and Observational Validation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Lee,Wan-Ho; Iacobellis, Sam F.; Somerville, Richard C. J. 1997-01-01 Using an atmospheric general circulation model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model: CCM2), the effects on climate sensitivity of several different cloud radiation parameterizations have been investigated. In addition to the original cloud radiation scheme of CCM2, four parameterizations incorporating prognostic cloud water were tested: one version with prescribed cloud radiative properties and three other versions with interactive cloud radiative properties. The authors' numerical experiments employ perpetual July integrations driven by globally constant sea surface temperature forcings of two degrees, both positive and negative. A diagnostic radiation calculation has been applied to investigate the partial contributions of high, middle, and low cloud to the total cloud radiative forcing, as well as the contributions of water vapor, temperature, and cloud to the net climate feedback. The high cloud net radiative forcing is positive, and the middle and low cloud net radiative forcings are negative. The total net cloud forcing is negative in all of the model versions. The effect of interactive cloud radiative properties on global climate sensitivity is significant. The net cloud radiative feedbacks consist of quite different shortwave and longwave components between the schemes with interactive cloud radiative properties and the schemes with specified properties. The increase in cloud water content in the warmer climate leads to optically thicker middle- and low-level clouds and in turn to negative shortwave feedbacks for the interactive radiative schemes, while the decrease in cloud amount simply produces a positive shortwave feedback for the schemes with a specified cloud water path. For the longwave feedbacks, the decrease in high effective cloudiness for the schemes without interactive radiative properties leads to a negative feedback, while for the other cases, the longwave feedback is positive. These cloud radiation parameterizations are empirically validated by using a single-column diagnostic model. together with measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Combined Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment. The inclusion of prognostic cloud water produces a notable improvement in the realism of the parameterizations, as judged by these observations. Furthermore, the observational evidence suggests that deriving cloud radiative properties from cloud water content and microphysical characteristics is a promising route to further improvement. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013QSRv...63....1B','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013QSRv...63....1B">Interglacial climates and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation: is there an Arctic controversy?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Bauch, Henning A. 2013-03-01 Arctic palaeorecords are important to understand the "natural range" of forcing and feedback mechanisms within the context of past and present climate change in this temperature-sensitive region. A wide array of methods and archives now provide a robust understanding of the Holocene climate evolution. By comparison rather little is still known about older interglacials, and in particular, on the effects of the northward propagation of heat transfer via the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation (AMOC) into the Arctic. Terrestrial records from this area often indicate a warmer and moister climate during past interglacials than in the Holocene implying a more vigorous AMOC activity. This is in conflict with marine data. Although recognized as very prominent interglacials in Antarctic ice cores, cross-latitudinal surface ocean temperature reconstructions show that little of the surface ocean warmth still identified in the Northeast Atlantic during older interglacial peaks (e.g., MIS5e, 9, 11) was further conveyed into the polar latitudes, and that each interglacial developed its own specific palaeoclimate features. Interactive processes between water mass overturning and the hydrological system of the Arctic, and how both developed together out of a glacial period with its particular ice sheet configuration and relative sea-level history, determined the efficiency of an evolving interglacial AMOC. Because of that glacial terminations developed some very specific water mass characteristics, which also affected the climate evolution of the ensuing interglacial periods. Moreover, the observed contrasts in the Arctic-directed meridional ocean heat flux between past interglacials have implications for the palaeoclimatic evaluation of this polar region. Crucial environmental factors of the Arctic climate system, such as the highly dynamical interactions between deep water mass flow, surface ocean temperature/salinity, sea ice, and atmosphere, exert strong feedbacks on interglacial climate regionality that goes well beyond the Arctic. A sound interpretation of such processes from palaeoarchives requires a good understanding of the applied proxies. Fossils, in particular, are often key to the reconstruction of past conditions. But the tremendously flexible adaptation strategies of biota sometimes hampers further in-depth interpretations, especially when considering their palaeoenvironmental meaning in the context of rapid palaeoclimatic changes and long-term Pleistocene evolution. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610375','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29610375">The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Lowe, Jason A; Bernie, Daniel 2018-05-13 A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO 2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO 2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO 2 and 150 GtCO 2 , respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Author(s). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37670263L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2018RSPTA.37670263L">The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lowe, Jason A.; Bernie, Daniel 2018-05-01 A number of studies have examined the size of the allowable global cumulative carbon budget compatible with limiting twenty-first century global average temperature rise to below 2°C and below 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. These estimates of cumulative emissions have a number of uncertainties including those associated with the climate sensitivity and the global carbon cycle. Although the IPCC fifth assessment report contained information on a range of Earth system feedbacks, such as carbon released by thawing of permafrost or methane production by wetlands as a result of climate change, the impact of many of these Earth system processes on the allowable carbon budgets remains to be quantified. Here, we make initial estimates to show that the combined impact from typically unrepresented Earth system processes may be important for the achievability of limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The size of the effects range up to around a 350 GtCO2 budget reduction for a 1.5°C warming limit and around a 500 GtCO2 reduction for achieving a warming limit of 2°C. Median estimates for the extra Earth system forcing lead to around 100 GtCO2 and 150 GtCO2, respectively, for the two warming limits. Our estimates are equivalent to several years of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions at present rates. In addition to the likely reduction of the allowable global carbon budgets, the extra feedbacks also bring forward the date at which a given warming threshold is likely to be exceeded for a particular emission pathway. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ERL.....2d5008G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ERL.....2d5008G">EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber 2007-10-01 High Northern Hemisphere latitudes are undergoing rapid and significant change associated with climate warming. Climatic change in this region interacts with and affects the rate of the global change through atmospheric circulation, biogeophysical, and biogeochemical feedbacks. Changes in the surface energy balance, hydrologic cycle, and carbon budget feedback to regional and global weather and climate systems. Two-thirds of the Northern Hemisphere high latitude land mass resides in Northern Eurasia (~20% of the global land mass), and this region has undergone sweeping socio-economic change throughout the 20th century. How this carbon-rich, cold region component of the Earth system functions as a regional entity and interacts with and feeds back to the greater global system is to a large extent unknown. To mitigate the deficiencies in understanding these feedbacks, which may in turn hamper our understanding of the global change rates and patterns, an initiative was formed. Three years ago the Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI) was established to address large-scale and long-term manifestations of climate and environmental change in this region. The NEESPI Science Plan and its Executive Summary have been published at the NEESPI web site (neespi.org). Since 2004, NEESPI participants have been able to seed several waves of research proposals to international and national funding agencies and institutions and also contribute to the International Polar Year. Currently, NEESPI is widely recognized and endorsed by several Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) programmes and projects: the International Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, the World Climate Research Programme through the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment and Climate and Cryosphere Projects, the Global Water System Project, Global Carbon Project, Global Land Project, and the Integrated Land Ecosystem—Atmosphere Processes Study. Through NEESPI, more than 100 individually funded projects (always with international participation) in the United States, Russian Federation, China, European Union, Japan, and Canada have been mutually united to explore the scientifically significant Northern Eurasian region. NEESPI scientists have been quite productive during the past two years (2005 2006) publishing more than 200 books, book chapters, and papers in refereed journals. NEESPI sessions at international conferences are open to everyone who works on environmental and climate change problems in Northern Eurasia and the circumpolar boreal zone. This thematic issue brings together articles from the authors who presented their latest results at the Annual Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting in San Francisco (December 2006). The research letters in this issue are preceded by two editorial papers (Leptoukh et al and Sherstyukov et al) devoted to informational support of research in the NEESPI domain that is critical to the success of the Initiative. The following papers are quite diverse and are assembled into five groups devoted to studies of climate and hydrology, land cover and land use, the biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks, the cryosphere, and human dimensions in the NEESPI domain and the circumpolar boreal zone. Focus on Northern Hemisphere High Latitude Climate and Environmental Change Contents The articles below represent the first accepted contributions and further additions will appear in the near future. Editorials NASA NEESPI Data and Services Center for Satellite Remote Sensing Information Gregory Leptoukh, Ivan Csiszar, Peter Romanov, Suhung Shen, Tatiana Loboda and Irina Gerasimov NEESPI Science and Data Support Center for Hydrometeorological Information in Obninsk, Russia B G Sherstyukov, V N Razuvaev, O N Bulygina and P Ya Groisman Climate and hydrology Changes in the fabric of the Arctic's greenhouse blanket Jennifer A Francis and Elias Hunter Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973 2005 Heejun Chang and Won-Tae Kwon Land cover and land use Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability Andrea H Lloyd and Andrew G Bunn The biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range inWest Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns Anna Peregon, Masao Uchida and Yasuyuki Shibata Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change T J Bohn, D P Lettenmaier, K Sathulur, L C Bowling, E Podest, K C McDonald and T Friborg The cryosphere Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission O A Anisimov Glacier changes in the Siberian Altai Mountains, Ob river basin, (1952 2006) estimated with high resolution imagery A B Surazakov, V B Aizen, E M Aizen and S A Nikitin Human dimensions Food and water security in a changing arctic climate Daniel M White, S Craig Gerlach, Philip Loring, Amy C Tidwell and Molly C Chambers </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5808H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..19.5808H">A missing piece of the puzzle in climate change hotspots: Near-surface turbulent interactions controlling ET-soil moisture coupling in semiarid areas</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Haghighi, Erfan; Gianotti, Daniel J.; Rigden, Angela J.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Kirchner, James W.; Entekhabi, Dara 2017-04-01 Being located in the transitional zone between dry and wet climate areas, semiarid ecosystems (and their associated ecohydrological processes) play a critical role in controlling climate change and global warming. Land evapotranspiration (ET), which is a central process in the climate system and a nexus of the water, energy and carbon cycles, typically accounts for up to 95% of the water budget in semiarid areas. Thus, the manner in which ET is partitioned into soil evaporation and plant transpiration in these settings is of practical importance for water and carbon cycling and their feedbacks to the climate system. ET (and its partitioning) in these regions is primarily controlled by surface soil moisture which varies episodically under stochastic precipitation inputs. Important as the ET-soil moisture relationship is, it remains empirical, and physical mechanisms governing its nature and dynamics are underexplored. Thus, the objective of this study is twofold: (1) to provide observational evidence for the influence of surface cover conditions on ET-soil moisture coupling in semiarid regions using soil moisture data from NASA's SMAP satellite mission combined with independent observationally based ET estimates, and (2) to develop a relatively simple mechanistic modeling platform improving our physical understanding of interactions between micro and macroscale processes controlling ET and its partitioning in partially vegetated areas. To this end, we invoked concepts from recent progress in mechanistic modeling of turbulent energy flux exchange in bluff-rough regions, and developed a physically based ET model that explicitly accounts for how vegetation-induced turbulence in the near-surface region influences soil drying and thus ET rates and dynamics. Model predictions revealed nonlinearities in the strength of the ET-soil moisture relationship (i.e., ∂ET/∂θ) as vegetation cover fraction increases, accounted for by the nonlinearity of surface-cover-dependent turbulent interactions. We identified a (predictable) critical vegetation cover fraction (as a function of vegetation stature and environmental conditions) that yields the strongest ET-soil moisture relationship under prescribed atmospheric conditions. Overall, the results suggest that ∂ET/ ∂θ varies more widely in regions with tall-stature woody vegetation that experience higher rates of change in turbulence intensity as the cover fraction increases. Our results facilitate a mathematically tractable description of ∂ET/ ∂θ, which is a core component of models that seek to predict hydrology-climate feedback processes in a changing climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70171003','USGSPUBS'); return false;" href="https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/70171003">Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/pubs/index.jsp?view=adv">USGS Publications Warehouse</a> Mark Torre Jorgenson,; Mikhail Kanevskiy,; Yuri Shur,; Natalia Moskalenko,; Dana Brown,; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Striegl, Robert G.; Koch, Joshua C. 2015-01-01 Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRF..120.2280J','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015JGRF..120.2280J">Role of ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks in recent ice wedge degradation and stabilization</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Jorgenson, M. T.; Kanevskiy, M.; Shur, Y.; Moskalenko, N.; Brown, D. R. N.; Wickland, K.; Striegl, R.; Koch, J. 2015-11-01 Ground ice is abundant in the upper permafrost throughout the Arctic and fundamentally affects terrain responses to climate warming. Ice wedges, which form near the surface and are the dominant type of massive ice in the Arctic, are particularly vulnerable to warming. Yet processes controlling ice wedge degradation and stabilization are poorly understood. Here we quantified ice wedge volume and degradation rates, compared ground ice characteristics and thermal regimes across a sequence of five degradation and stabilization stages and evaluated biophysical feedbacks controlling permafrost stability near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska. Mean ice wedge volume in the top 3 m of permafrost was 21%. Imagery from 1949 to 2012 showed thermokarst extent (area of water-filled troughs) was relatively small from 1949 (0.9%) to 1988 (1.5%), abruptly increased by 2004 (6.3%) and increased slightly by 2012 (7.5%). Mean annual surface temperatures varied by 4.9°C among degradation and stabilization stages and by 9.9°C from polygon center to deep lake bottom. Mean thicknesses of the active layer, ice-poor transient layer, ice-rich intermediate layer, thermokarst cave ice, and wedge ice varied substantially among stages. In early stages, thaw settlement caused water to impound in thermokarst troughs, creating positive feedbacks that increased net radiation, soil heat flux, and soil temperatures. Plant growth and organic matter accumulation in the degraded troughs provided negative feedbacks that allowed ground ice to aggrade and heave the surface, thus reducing surface water depth and soil temperatures in later stages. The ground ice dynamics and ecological feedbacks greatly complicate efforts to assess permafrost responses to climate change. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A32D..03S','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AGUFM.A32D..03S">Diver Down: Remote Sensing of Carbon Climate Feedbacks</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Schimel, D.; Chatterjee, A.; Baker, D. F.; Basu, S.; Denning, A. S.; Schuh, A. E.; Crowell, S.; Jacobson, A. R.; Bowman, K. W.; Liu, J.; O'Dell, C. 2016-12-01 What controls the rate of increase of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere? It may seem self-evident but actually remains mysterious. The increases of CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that dampen or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 59 years but has shown recent dynamics and if it changes in the future, will affect the climate impact of any given fossil fuel regime. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably heterogeneous in time and space, and traditional in situ observing systems do not provide the coverage and resolution to quantify carbon-climate feedbacks or reduce the uncertainty of model predictions. Here we describe an methodology for estimating critical carbon-climate feedback effects of current spaceborne XCO2 measurements, developed by the OCO-2 Flux Group, and applied to OCO-2 and GOSAT data. The methodology allows integration of the space-based carbon budgets with other global data sets, and exposes the impact of residual bias error on the estimated fluxes, allowing the uncertainty of the estimated feedbacks to be quantified. The approach is limited by the short timeseries currently available, but suggests dramatic changes to the carbon cycle over the recent past. We present the methodology, early results and implications for a future, sustained carbon observing system. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/2923','TREESEARCH'); return false;" href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/2923">MC1: a dynamic vegetation model for estimating the distribution of vegetation and associated carbon, nutrients, and water—technical documentation. Version 1.0.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/">Treesearch</a> Dominique Bachelet; James M. Lenihan; Christopher Daly; Ronald P. Neilson; Dennis S. Ojima; William J. Parton 2001-01-01 Assessments of vegetation response to climate change have generally been made only by equilibrium vegetation models that predict vegetation composition under steady-state conditions. These models do not simulate either ecosystem biogeochemical processes or changes in ecosystem structure that may, in turn, act as feedbacks in determining the dynamics of vegetation... </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020024010','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20020024010">Response to "The Iris Hypothesis: A Negative or Positive Cloud Feedback?"</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Chou, Ming-Dah; Lindzen, Richard S.; Hou, Arthur Y.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor) 2001-01-01 Based on radiance measurements of Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, Lindzen et al. found that the high-level cloud cover averaged over the tropical western Pacific decreases with increasing sea surface temperature. They further found that the response of high-level clouds to the sea surface temperature had an effect of reducing the magnitude of climate change, which is referred as a negative climate feedback. Lin et al. reassessed the results found by Lindzen et al. by analyzing the radiation and clouds derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System measurements. They found a weak positive feedback between high-level clouds and the surface temperature. We have found that the approach taken by Lin et al. to estimating the albedo and the outgoing longwave radiation is incorrect and that the inferred climate sensitivity is unreliable. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1249119-simulating-aerosol-indirect-effects-improved-aerosol-cloud-precipitation-representations-coupled-regional-climate-model','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1249119-simulating-aerosol-indirect-effects-improved-aerosol-cloud-precipitation-representations-coupled-regional-climate-model">Simulating Aerosol Indirect Effects with Improved Aerosol-Cloud- Precipitation Representations in a Coupled Regional Climate Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Zhang, Yang; Leung, L. Ruby; Fan, Jiwen This is a collaborative project among North Carolina State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego to address the critical need for an accurate representation of aerosol indirect effect in climate and Earth system models. In this project, we propose to develop and improve parameterizations of aerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacks in climate models and apply them to study the effect of aerosols and clouds on radiation and hydrologic cycle. Our overall objective is to develop, improve, and evaluate parameterizations to enable more accurate simulations of these feedbacks in high resolution regional and globalmore » climate models.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C42A..06E','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015AGUFM.C42A..06E">Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Edwards, T. 2015-12-01 As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%). </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5884431','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5884431">The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert 2018-01-01 Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009GMS...186..273M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2009GMS...186..273M">Global warming and climate change in Amazonia: Climate-vegetation feedback and impacts on water resources</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Marengo, José; Nobre, Carlos A.; Betts, Richard A.; Cox, Peter M.; Sampaio, Gilvan; Salazar, Luis This chapter constitutes an updated review of long-term climate variability and change in the Amazon region, based on observational data spanning more than 50 years of records and on climate-change modeling studies. We start with the early experiments on Amazon deforestation in the late 1970s, and the evolution of these experiments to the latest studies on greenhouse gases emission scenarios and land use changes until the end of the twenty-first century. The "Amazon dieback" simulated by the HadCM3 model occurs after a "tipping point" of CO2 concentration and warming. Experiments on Amazon deforestation and change of climate suggest that once a critical deforestation threshold (or tipping point) of 40-50% forest loss is reached in eastern Amazonia, climate would change in a way which is dangerous for the remaining forest. This may favor a collapse of the tropical forest, with a substitution of the forest by savanna-type vegetation. The concept of "dangerous climate change," as a climate change, which induces positive feedback, which accelerate the change, is strongly linked to the occurrence of tipping points, and it can be explained as the presence of feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle, particularly involving a weakening of the current terrestrial carbon sink and a possible reversal from a sink (as in present climate) to a source by the year 2050. We must, therefore, currently consider the drying simulated by the Hadley Centre model(s) as having a finite probability under global warming, with a potentially enormous impact, but with some degree of uncertainty. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........10Y','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017PhDT........10Y">Statistical and dynamical assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across North Africa</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Yu, Yan North Africa is highly vulnerable to hydrologic variability and extremes, including impacts of climate change. The current understanding of oceanic versus terrestrial drivers of North African droughts and pluvials is largely model-based, with vast disagreement among models in terms of the simulated oceanic impacts and vegetation feedbacks. Regarding oceanic impacts, the relative importance of the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Oceans in regulating the North African rainfall variability, as well as the underlying mechanism, remains debated among different modeling studies. Classic theory of land-atmosphere interactions across the Sahel ecotone, largely based on climate modeling experiments, has promoted positive vegetation-rainfall feedbacks associated with a dominant surface albedo mechanism. However, neither the proposed positive vegetation-rainfall feedback with its underlying albedo mechanism, nor its relative importance compared with oceanic drivers, has been convincingly demonstrated up to now using observational data. Here, the multivariate Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is applied in order to identify the observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate and quantify their impacts. The reliability of the statistical GEFA method is first evaluated against dynamical experiments within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). In order to reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional GEFA approach is refined through stepwise GEFA, in which unimportant forcings are dropped through stepwise selection. In order to evaluate GEFA's reliability in capturing oceanic impacts, the atmospheric response to a sea-surface temperature (SST) forcing across the tropical Pacific, tropical Indian, and tropical Atlantic Ocean is estimated independently through ensembles of dynamical experiments and compared with GEFA-based assessments. Furthermore, GEFA's performance in capturing terrestrial impacts is evaluated through ensembles of fully coupled CESM dynamical experiments, with modified leaf area index (LAI) and soil moisture across the Sahel or West African Monsoon (WAM) region. The atmospheric responses to oceanic and terrestrial forcings are generally consistent between the dynamical experiments and statistical GEFA, confirming GEFA's capability of isolating the individual impacts of oceanic and terrestrial forcings on North African climate. Furthermore, with the incorporation of stepwise selection, GEFA can now provide reliable estimates of the oceanic and terrestrial impacts on the North African climate with the typical length of observational datasets, thereby enhancing the method's applicability. After the successful validation of GEFA, the key observed oceanic and terrestrial drivers of North African climate are identified through the application of GEFA to gridded observations, remote sensing products, and reanalyses. According to GEFA, oceanic drivers dominate over terrestrial drivers in terms of their observed impacts on North African climate in most seasons. Terrestrial impacts are comparable to, or more important than, oceanic impacts on rainfall during the post-monsoon across the Sahel and WAM region, and after the short rain across the Horn of Africa (HOA). The key ocean basins that regulate North African rainfall are typically located in the tropics. While the observed impacts of SST variability across the tropical Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans on the Sahel rainfall are largely consistent with previous model-based findings, minimal impacts from tropical Indian Ocean variability on Sahel rainfall are identified in observations, in contrast to previous modeling studies. The current observational analysis verifies model-hypothesized positive vegetation-rainfall feedback across the Sahel and HOA, which is confined to the post-monsoon and post-short rains season, respectively. However, the observed positive vegetation feedback to rainfall in the semi-arid Sahel and HOA is largely due to moisture recycling, rather than the classic albedo mechanism. Future projections of Sahel rainfall remain highly uncertain in terms of both sign and magnitude within phases three and five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). The GEFA-based observational analyses will provide a benchmark for evaluating climate models, which will facilitate effective process-based model weighting for more reliable projections of regional climate, as well as model development. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440">Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Eisenman, I; Wettlaufer, J S 2009-01-06 In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or "tipping point") beyond which the ice-albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice-albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice-albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2629232','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=2629232">Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Eisenman, I.; Wettlaufer, J. S. 2009-01-01 In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. PMID:19109440 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170007967','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20170007967">Aerosol Concentration, Size, Hygroscopicity and MEE, Globally: What Do We Need to Know and How Can We Know It?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Kahn, Ralph 2017-01-01 Organizers of the Symposium Clouds, their Properties, and their Climate Feedbacks - What Have We Learned in the Satellite Era, held at Columbia University, NASAGISS June 6-8, 2017 plan to post the presented talks to an online website. http:www.gewex.orgeventclouds-their-properties-and-their-climate-feedbacks-what-have-we-learned-in-the-satellite-era?instance_id293534 </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li class="active">24</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>25</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div id="page_25" class="hiddenDiv"> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="row"> <div class="col-sm-12"> <ol class="result-class" start="481"> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.1762A','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2015EGUGA..17.1762A">Global warming related transient albedo feedback in the Arctic and its relation to the seasonality of sea ice</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Andry, Olivier; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, Wilco 2015-04-01 The Arctic is warming two to three times faster than the global average. Arctic sea ice cover is very sensitive to this warming and has reached historic minima in late summer in recent years (i.e. 2007, 2012). Considering that the Arctic Ocean is mainly ice-covered and that the albedo of sea ice is very high compared to that of open water, the change in sea ice cover is very likely to have a strong impact on the local surface albedo feedback. Here we quantify the temporal changes in surface albedo feedback in response to global warming. Usually feedbacks are evaluated as being representative and constant for long time periods, but we show here that the strength of climate feedbacks in fact varies strongly with time. For instance, time series of the amplitude of the surface albedo feedback, derived from future climate simulations (CIMP5, RCP8.5 up to year 2300) using a kernel method, peaks around the year 2100. This maximum is likely caused by an increased seasonality in sea-ice cover that is inherently associated with sea ice retreat. We demonstrate that the Arctic average surface albedo has a strong seasonal signature with a maximum in spring and a minimum in late summer/autumn. In winter when incoming solar radiation is minimal the surface albedo doesn't have an important effect on the energy balance of the climate system. The annual mean surface albedo is thus determined by the seasonality of both downwelling shortwave radiation and sea ice cover. As sea ice cover reduces the seasonal signature is modified, the transient part from maximum sea ice cover to its minimum is shortened and sharpened. The sea ice cover is reduced when downwelling shortwave radiation is maximum and thus the annual surface albedo is drastically smaller. Consequently the change in annual surface albedo with time will become larger and so will the surface albedo feedback. We conclude that a stronger seasonality in sea ice leads to a stronger surface albedo feedback, which accelerates melting of sea ice. Hence, the change in seasonality and the associated change in feedback strength is an integral part of the positive surface albedo feedback leading to Arctic amplification and diminishing sea ice cover in the next century when global climate warms. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5347016','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=5347016">A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S. 2017-01-01 Earth’s orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. PMID:28287128 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28287128','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28287128">A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S 2017-03-13 Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1919142M','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1919142M">A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John 2017-04-01 Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Niño and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some period of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1362194','SCIGOV-STC'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1362194">Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/search">DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)</a> Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D. Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..496T','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017NatCC...7..496T">Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George 2017-07-01 Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1362194-biospheric-feedback-effects-synchronously-coupled-model-human-earth-systems','SCIGOV-DOEP'); return false;" href="https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1362194-biospheric-feedback-effects-synchronously-coupled-model-human-earth-systems">Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.osti.gov/pages">DOE PAGES</a> Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ... 2017-06-12 Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53E0935K','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFMGC53E0935K">Temporal Arctic longwave surface emissivity feedbacks in the Community Earth System Model</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Kuo, C.; Feldman, D.; Huang, X.; Flanner, M.; Yang, P.; Chen, X. 2017-12-01 We have investigated how the inclusion of realistic and consistent surface emissivity in both land-surface and atmospheric components of the CESM coupled-climate model affects a wide range of climate variables. We did this by replacing the unit emissivity values in RRTMG_LW for water, fine-grained snow, and desert scenes with spectral emissivity values, and by replacing broadband emissivity values in surface components with the Planck-curve weighted counterparts. We find that this harmonized treatment of surface emissivity within CESM can be important for reducing high-latitude temperature biases. We also find that short-term effects of atmospheric dynamics and spectral information need to be considered to understand radiative effects in higher detail, and are possible with radiative kernels computed for every grid and time point for the entire model integration period. We find that conventional climatological feedback calculations indicate that sea-ice emissivity feedback is positive in sign, but that the radiative effects of the difference in emissivity between frozen and unfrozen surfaces exhibit seasonal dependence. Furthermore, this seasonality itself exhibits meridional asymmetry due to differences in sea-ice response to climate forcing between the Arctic and the Antarctic. In the Arctic, this seasonal, temporally higher order analysis exhibits increasing outgoing surface emissivity radiative response in a warming climate. While the sea-ice emissivity feedback and seasonal sea-ice emissivity radiative response amplitudes are a few percent of surface albedo feedbacks, the feedback analysis methods outlined in this work demonstrate that spatially and temporally localized feedback analysis can give insight into the mechanisms at work on those scales which differ in amplitude and sign from conventional climatological analyses. We note that the inclusion of this realistic physics leads to improved agreement between CESM model results and Arctic surface temperatures and sea-ice trends. This reduction of persistent high-latitude model biases suggests that the current unrealistic representation of surface emissivity in model component radiation routines may be an important contributing factor to cold-pole biases. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B41I2096L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.B41I2096L">Dissolved organic carbon biodegradability from thawing permafrost stimulated by sunlight rather than inorganic nitrogen</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Liu, F.; Chen, L.; Zhang, B.; Wang, G.; Qin, S.; Yang, Y. 2017-12-01 Permafrost thaw could result in a large portion of frozen carbon being laterally transferred to aquatic ecosystems as dissolved organic carbon (DOC). During this delivery process, the size of biodegradable DOC (BDOC) determines the proportion of DOC mineralized by microorganisms and associated carbon loss to the atmosphere, which may further trigger positive carbon-climate feedback. Thermokarst is an abrupt permafrost thaw process that can enhance DOC export and also impact DOC processing through increased inorganic nitrogen (N) and sunlight exposure. However, it remains unclear how thermokarst-impacted BDOC responds to inorganic N addition and ultraviolet (UV) light irradiation. Here we explored the responses of DOC concentration, composition and its biodegradability to inorganic N and UV light in a typical thermokarst on the Tibetan Plateau, by combining field observation and laboratory incubation with spectra analyses (UV-visible absorption and three-dimensional fluorescence spectra) and parallel factor analyses. Our results showed that BDOC in thermokarst feature outflows was significantly higher than in reference water. Furthermore, inorganic N addition had no influence on thermokarst-impacted BDOC, whereas exposure to UV light significantly increased BDOC by as much as 2.3 times higher than the dark-control. Moreover, N addition and UV irradiation did not generate additive effects on BDOC. These results imply that sunlight rather than inorganic N can increase thermokarst-derived BDOC, potentially strengthening the positive permafrost carbon-climate feedback. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A52H..05C','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AGUFM.A52H..05C">The use of marine cloud water samples as a diagnostic tool for aqueous chemistry, cloud microphysical processes and dynamics</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Crosbie, E.; Ziemba, L. D.; Moore, R.; Shook, M.; Jordan, C.; Thornhill, K. L., II; Winstead, E.; Shingler, T.; Brown, M.; MacDonald, A. B.; Dadashazar, H.; Sorooshian, A.; Weiss-Penzias, P. S.; Anderson, B. 2017-12-01 Clouds play several roles in the Earth's climate system. In addition to their clear significance to the hydrological cycle, they strongly modulate the shortwave and longwave radiative balance of the atmosphere, with subsequent feedback on the atmospheric circulation. Furthermore, clouds act as a conduit for the fate and emergence of important trace chemical species and are the predominant removal mechanism for atmospheric aerosols. Marine boundary layer clouds cover large swaths of the global oceans. Because of their global significance, they have attracted significant attention into understanding how changes in aerosols are translated into changes in cloud macro- and microphysical properties. The circular nature of the influence of clouds-on-aerosols and aerosols-on-clouds has been used to explain the chaotic patterns often seen in marine clouds, however, this feedback also presents a substantial hurdle in resolving the uncertain role of anthropogenic aerosols on climate. Here we discuss ways in which the chemical constituents found in cloud water can offer insight into the physical and chemical processes inherent in marine clouds, through the use of aircraft measurements. We focus on observational data from cloud water samples collected during flights conducted over the remote North Atlantic and along coastal California across multiple campaigns. We explore topics related to aqueous processing, wet scavenging and source apportionment. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090014193&hterms=water+vapor&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bvapor','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=20090014193&hterms=water+vapor&qs=Ntx%3Dmode%2Bmatchall%26Ntk%3DAll%26N%3D0%26No%3D90%26Ntt%3Dwater%2Bvapor">Water Vapor Feedback and Links to Mechanisms of Recent Tropical Climate Variations</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L. 2008-01-01 Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying feedback processes. A strong warm/cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late1990 s with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 %/decade. Here we use a number of diverse satellite measurements to explore connections between upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) variations on these time scales and changes in other water and energy fluxes. Precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE / CERES, SRB) are use to analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry and moist components. Strong signatures of MSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these transports compared to radiative flux changes are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of heat rejection during episodes of warm or cold SST forcing. In conjunction with the diagnosed energy transports we explore frequency distributions of upper-tropospheric humidity as inferred from SSM/T-2 and AMSU-B passive microwave measurements. Relating these variations to SST changes suggests positive water vapor feedback, but at a level reduced from constant relative humidity. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16061800','PUBMED'); return false;" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16061800">Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate.</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pubmed">PubMed</a> Fung, Inez Y; Doney, Scott C; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin 2005-08-09 Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon-climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1182133','PMC'); return false;" href="https://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?tool=pmcentrez&artid=1182133">Evolution of carbon sinks in a changing climate</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?DB=pmc">PubMed Central</a> Fung, Inez Y.; Doney, Scott C.; Lindsay, Keith; John, Jasmin 2005-01-01 Climate change is expected to influence the capacities of the land and oceans to act as repositories for anthropogenic CO2 and hence provide a feedback to climate change. A series of experiments with the National Center for Atmospheric Research–Climate System Model 1 coupled carbon–climate model shows that carbon sink strengths vary with the rate of fossil fuel emissions, so that carbon storage capacities of the land and oceans decrease and climate warming accelerates with faster CO2 emissions. Furthermore, there is a positive feedback between the carbon and climate systems, so that climate warming acts to increase the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 and amplify the climate change itself. Globally, the amplification is small at the end of the 21st century in this model because of its low transient climate response and the near-cancellation between large regional changes in the hydrologic and ecosystem responses. Analysis of our results in the context of comparable models suggests that destabilization of the tropical land sink is qualitatively robust, although its degree is uncertain. PMID:16061800 </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('https://eric.ed.gov/?q=engine+AND+research&pg=7&id=EJ1153899','ERIC'); return false;" href="https://eric.ed.gov/?q=engine+AND+research&pg=7&id=EJ1153899">Investigating the Impact of Automated Feedback on Students' Scientific Argumentation</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://www.eric.ed.gov/ERICWebPortal/search/extended.jsp?_pageLabel=advanced">ERIC Educational Resources Information Center</a> Zhu, Mengxiao; Lee, Hee-Sun; Wang, Ting; Liu, Ou Lydia; Belur, Vinetha; Pallant, Amy 2017-01-01 This study investigates the role of automated scoring and feedback in supporting students' construction of written scientific arguments while learning about factors that affect climate change in the classroom. The automated scoring and feedback technology was integrated into an online module. Students' written scientific argumentation occurred… </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ClDy...29..177V','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007ClDy...29..177V">Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use changes</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Voldoire, Aurore; Eickhout, Bas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice 2007-08-01 To include land-use dynamics in a general circulation model (GCM), the physical system has to be linked to a system that represents socio-economy. This issue is addressed by coupling an integrated assessment model, IMAGE2.2, to an ocean atmosphere GCM, CNRM-CM3. In the new system, IMAGE2.2 provides CNRM-CM3 with all the external forcings that are scenario dependent: greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentrations, sulfate aerosols charge and land cover. Conversely, the GCM gives IMAGE changes in mean temperature and precipitation. With this new system, we have run an adapted scenario of the IPCC SRES scenario family. We have chosen a single scenario with maximum land-use changes (SRES A2), to illustrate some important feedback issues. Even in this two-way coupled model set-up, land use in this scenario is mainly driven by demographic and agricultural practices, which overpowers a potential influence of climate feedbacks on land-use patterns. This suggests that for scenarios in which socio-economically driven land-use change is very large, land-use changes can be incorporated in GCM simulations as a one-way driving force, without taking into account climate feedbacks. The dynamics of natural vegetation is more closely linked to climate but the time-scale of changes is of the order of a century. Thus, the coupling between natural vegetation and climate could generate important feedbacks but these effects are relevant mainly for multi-centennial simulations. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........33L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016PhDT........33L">Progressive Mid-latitude Afforestation: Local and Remote Climate Impacts in the Framework of Two Coupled Earth System Models</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lague, Marysa Vegetation influences the atmosphere in complex and non-linear ways, such that large-scale changes in vegetation cover can drive changes in climate on both local and global scales. Large-scale land surface changes have been shown to introduce excess energy to one hemisphere, causing a shift in atmospheric circulation on a global scale. However, past work has not quantified how the climate response scales with the area of vegetation. Here, we systematically evaluate the response of climate to linearly increasing the area of forest cover over the northern mid-latitudes. We show that the magnitude of afforestation of the northern mid-latitudes determines the climate response in a non-linear fashion, and identify a threshold in vegetation-induced cloud feedbacks - a concept not previously addressed by large-scale vegetation manipulation experiments. Small increases in tree cover drive compensating cloud feedbacks, while latent heat fluxes reach a threshold after sufficiently large increases in tree cover, causing the troposphere to warm and dry, subsequently reducing cloud cover. Increased absorption of solar radiation at the surface is driven by both surface albedo changes and cloud feedbacks. We identify how vegetation-induced changes in cloud cover further feedback on changes in the global energy balance. We also show how atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport changes as the area of afforestation is incrementally increased (a relationship which has not previously been demonstrated). This work demonstrates that while some climate effects (such as energy transport) of large scale mid-latitude afforestation scale roughly linearly across a wide range of afforestation areas, others (such as the local partitioning of the surface energy budget) are non-linear, and sensitive to the particular magnitude of mid-latitude forcing. Our results highlight the importance of considering both local and remote climate responses to large-scale vegetation change, and explore the scaling relationship between changes in vegetation cover and the resulting climate impacts. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006589','NASA-TRS'); return false;" href="http://hdl.handle.net/2060/20160006589">How Difficult is it to Reduce Low-Level Cloud Biases With the Higher-Order Turbulence Closure Approach in Climate Models?</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp">NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)</a> Xu, Kuan-Man 2015-01-01 Low-level clouds cover nearly half of the Earth and play a critical role in regulating the energy and hydrological cycle. Despite the fact that a great effort has been put to advance the modeling and observational capability in recent years, low-level clouds remains one of the largest uncertainties in the projection of future climate change. Low-level cloud feedbacks dominate the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback in climate sensitivity and projection studies. These clouds are notoriously difficult to simulate in climate models due to its complicated interactions with aerosols, cloud microphysics, boundary-layer turbulence and cloud dynamics. The biases in both low cloud coverage/water content and cloud radiative effects (CREs) remain large. A simultaneous reduction in both cloud and CRE biases remains elusive. This presentation first reviews the effort of implementing the higher-order turbulence closure (HOC) approach to representing subgrid-scale turbulence and low-level cloud processes in climate models. There are two HOCs that have been implemented in climate models. They differ in how many three-order moments are used. The CLUBB are implemented in both CAM5 and GDFL models, which are compared with IPHOC that is implemented in CAM5 by our group. IPHOC uses three third-order moments while CLUBB only uses one third-order moment while both use a joint double-Gaussian distribution to represent the subgrid-scale variability. Despite that HOC is more physically consistent and produces more realistic low-cloud geographic distributions and transitions between cumulus and stratocumulus regimes, GCMs with traditional cloud parameterizations outperform in CREs because tuning of this type of models is more extensively performed than those with HOCs. We perform several tuning experiments with CAM5 implemented with IPHOC in an attempt to produce the nearly balanced global radiative budgets without deteriorating the low-cloud simulation. One of the issues in CAM5-IPHOC is that cloud water content is much higher than in CAM5, which is combined with higher low-cloud coverage to produce larger shortwave CREs in some low-cloud prevailing regions. Thus, the cloud-radiative feedbacks are exaggerated there. The turning exercise is focused on microphysical parameters, which are also commonly used for tuning in climate models. The results will be discussed in this presentation. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915139G','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1915139G">Observations of cloud and rainfall enhancement over irrigated agriculture in an arid environment</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Garcia-Carreras, Luis; Marsham, John H.; Spracklen, Dominick V. 2017-04-01 The impact of irrigated agriculture on clouds and rainfall remains uncertain, particularly in less studied arid regions. Irrigated crops account for 20% of global cropland area, and non-renewable groundwater accounts for 20% of global irrigation water demand. Quantifying the feedbacks between agriculture and the atmosphere are therefore not only necessary to better understand the climate impacts of land-use change, but are also crucial for predicting long-term water use in water-scarce regions. Here we use high spatial-resolution satellite data to show the impact of irrigated crops in the arid environment of northern Saudi Arabia on cloud cover and rainfall patterns. Land surface temperatures over the crops are 5-10 K lower than their surroundings, linked to evapotranspiration rates of up to 20 mm/ month. Daytime cloud cover is up to 30% higher over the cropland compared to its immediate surroundings, and this enhancement is highly correlated with the seasonal variability in leaf area index. The cloud enhancement is associated with a much more rapid cloud cloud development during the morning. Afternoon rainfall is 85% higher over, and just downwind, of the cropland during the growing season, although rainfall remains very low in absolute terms. The feedback sign we find is the opposite to what has been observed in tropical and semiarid regions, where temperature gradients promote convergence and clouds on the warmer side of land-surface type discontinuities. This suggests that different processes are responsible for the land-atmosphere feedback in very dry environments, where lack of moisture may be a stronger constraint. Increased cloud and rainfall, and associated increases in diffuse radiation and reductions in temperature, can affect vegetation growth thus producing an internal feedback. These effects will therefore need to be taken into account to properly assess the impact of climate change on crop productivity and water use, as well as how global land-use change affects climate. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913621H','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017EGUGA..1913621H">Dynamically driven super C-C intensification of the tropical hydrological cycle</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Hakuba, Maria Z.; Stephens, Graeme L.; Kahn, Brian; Yue, Qing; Lebsock, Matthew D.; Hristova-Veleva, Svetla; Rapp, Anita D.; Stubenrauch, Claudia 2017-04-01 Improving our understanding of the hydrological cycle and the way it responds to a warming world represents one of the greatest challenges in current climate research. We expect global mean precipitation to increase by about 2% per degree of surface warming, constrained by the atmospheric energy budget on the one hand and the availability of atmospheric water vapor (Clausius-Clapeyron) on the other. Regional changes in precipitation pattern and intensity are less well known and often described by the 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' paradigm. The currently wettest region of our planet is characterized by organized deep tropical convection over the equatorial oceans and referred to as the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). To quantify potential changes of the tropical water cycle in a warmer climate, we have analyzed a great amount of independent observational datasets collected over multiple decades. With this we reveal a strong, positive feedback on tropical convection in the Pacific associated with the short-term climate variations of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dynamical feedback is in addition to the established Bjerknes (positive) and surface heat flux (negative) feedbacks and is a result of coupled dynamical-radiative-convective processes that produce observed responses in precipitation and cloud amount far beyond those expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) response alone. We have indication that this dynamical feedback is driven by differential atmospheric heating rates in the convective regions (heating) and adjacent regions to the south, north and west (cooling) leading to inflow that feeds the convectively active zones. This evidence is supported by analysis of observed surface wind divergence and vertical motion from reanalysis. While super-CC responses to global warming have been examined with respect to local and short-term weather events, this study provides the first observational evidence of a much larger scale response on seasonal and longer time scales. </li> <li> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" onclick="trackOutboundLink('http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512371L','NASAADS'); return false;" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..1512371L">Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in the 21st Century (PAGE21): A very large international and integrated project to measure the impact of permafrost degradation on the climate system</a> <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" href="http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abstract_service.html">NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)</a> Lantuit, Hugues; Boike, Julia; Dahms, Melanie; Hubberten, Hans-Wolfgang 2013-04-01 The northern permafrost region contains approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and more than twice as much as is contained in the current atmos-pheric carbon pool. The sheer size of this carbon pool, together with the large amplitude of predicted arctic climate change im-plies that there is a high potential for global-scale feedbacks from arctic climate change if these carbon reservoirs are desta-bilized. Nonetheless, significant gaps exist in our current state of knowledge that prevent us from producing accurate assess-ments of the vulnerability of the arctic permafrost to climate change, or of the implications of future climate change for global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Specifically: • Our understanding of the physical and biogeochemical processes at play in permafrost areas is still insuffi-cient in some key aspects • Size estimates for the high latitude continental carbon and nitrogen stocks vary widely between regions and research groups. • The representation of permafrost-related processes in global climate models still tends to be rudimentary, and is one reason for the frequently poor perform-ances of climate models at high latitudes. The key objectives of PAGE21 are: • to improve our understanding of the processes affect-ing the size of the arctic permafrost carbon and nitro-gen pools through detailed field studies and monitor-ing, in order to quantify their size and their vulnerability to climate change, • to produce, assemble and assess high-quality datasets in order to develop and evaluate representations of permafrost and related processes in global models, • to improve these models accordingly, • to use these models to reduce the uncertainties in feed-backs from arctic permafrost to global change, thereby providing the means to assess the feasibility of stabili-zation scenarios, and • to ensure widespread dissemination of our results in order to provide direct input into the ongoing debate on climate-change mitigation. The concept of PAGE21 is to directly address these questions through a close interaction between monitoring activities, proc-ess studies and modeling on the pertinent temporal and spatial scales. Field sites have been selected to cover a wide range of environmental conditions for the validation of large scale mod-els, the development of permafrost monitoring capabilities, the study of permafrost processes, and for overlap with existing monitoring programs. PAGE21 will contribute to upgrading the project sites with the objective of providing a measurement baseline, both for process studies and for modeling programs. PAGE21 is determined to break down the traditional barriers in permafrost sciences between observational and model-supported site studies and large-scale climate modeling. Our concept for the interaction between site-scale studies and large-scale modeling is to establish and maintain a direct link be-tween these two areas for developing and evaluating, on all spatial scales, the land-surface modules of leading European global climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), designed to inform the IPCC process. The timing of this project is such that the main scientific results from PAGE21, and in particular the model-based assessments will build entirely on new outputs and results from the CMIP5 Climate Model Intercomparison Project designed to inform the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. However, PAGE21 is designed to leave a legacy that will en-dure beyond the lifetime of the projections that it produces. This legacy will comprise • an improved understanding of the key processes and parameters that determine the vulnerability of arctic permafrost to climate change, • the production of a suite of major European coupled climate models including detailed and validated repre-sentations of permafrost-related processes, that will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections pro-duced well beyond the lifetime of PAGE21, and • the training of a new generation of permafrost scien-tists who will bridge the long-standing gap between permafrost field science and global climate modeling, for the long-term benefit of science and society. </li> </ol> <div class="pull-right"> <ul class="pagination"> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_1");'>«</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_21");'>21</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_22");'>22</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_23");'>23</a></li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_24");'>24</a></li> <li class="active">25</li> <li><a href="#" onclick='return showDiv("page_25");'>»</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="footer-extlink text-muted" style="margin-bottom:1rem; text-align:center;">Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. 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Sample records for climate feedback processes