The dynamics of climate-induced deglacial ice stream acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robel, A.; Tziperman, E.

2015-12-01

Geological observations indicate that ice streams were a significant contributor to ice flow in the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the Last Glacial Maximum. Conceptual and simple model studies have also argued that the gradual development of ice streams increases the sensitivity of large ice sheets to weak climate forcing. In this study, we use an idealized configuration of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model to explore the role of ice streams in rapid deglaciation. In a growing ice sheet, ice streams develop gradually as the bed warms and the margin expands outward onto the continental shelf. Then, a weak change in equilibrium line altitude commensurate with Milankovitch forcing results in a rapid deglacial response, as ice stream acceleration leads to enhanced calving and surface melting at low elevations. We explain the dynamical mechanism that drives this ice stream acceleration and its broader applicability as a feedback for enhancing ice sheet decay in response to climate forcing. We show how our idealized ice sheet simulations match geomorphological observations of deglacial ice stream variability and previous model-data analyses. We conclude with observations on the potential for interaction between ice streams and other feedback mechanisms within the earth system.

An Imminent Revolution in Modeling Interactions of Ice Sheets With Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, T.

2008-12-01

Modeling continental ice sheets was inaugurated by meteorologists William Budd and Uwe Radok, with mathematician Richard Jenssen, in 1971. Their model calculated the thermal and mechanical regime using measured surface accumulation rates, temperatures, and elevations, and bed topography. This top-down approach delivered a basal thermal regime of temperatures or melting rates for an assumed basal geothermal heat flux. When Philippe Huybrechts and others incorporated time, largely unknownpast surface conditions had a major effect on present basal thermal conditions. This approach produced ice-sheet models with only a slow response to external forcing, whereas the glacial geological record and climate records from ice and ocean cores show that ice sheets can have rapid changes in size and shape independent of external forcing. These top-down models were wholly inadequate for reconstructing former ice sheets at the LGM for CLIMAP in 1981. Ice-sheet areas,elevations, and volumes provided the albedo, surface topography, and sea-surface area as input to climate models. A bottom-up model based on dated glacial geology was developed to provide the areal extent and basal thermal regime of ice sheets at the LGM. Basal thermal conditions determined ice-bed coupling and therefore the elevation of ice sheets. High convex ice surfaces for slow sheet flow lower about 20 percent when a frozen bed becomes thawed. As further basal melting drowns bedrock bumps that "pin" basal ice, the ice surface becomes concave in fast stream flow that ends as low floating ice shelves at marine ice margins. A revolution in modeling interactions between glaciation, climate, and sea level is driven by new Greenland and Antarctic data from Earth-orbiting satellites, airborne and surface traverses, and deep drilling. We anticipate continuous data acquisition of surface albedo, accumulation/ablation rates, elevations, velocities, and temperatures over a whole ice sheet, mapping basal thermal conditions by radar, seismic, and magnetic profiling, and direct measurement of basal conditions by deep drilling and coring into the ice and the bed. These data allow calculating the geothermal heat flux and mapping flow of basal meltwater from geothermal sources to sinks at the termini of ice streams, which discharge up to 90 percent of the ice. James Fastook has a preliminary solution of the full momentum equation needed to model ice streams. Douglas MacAyeal has pioneered modeling catastrophic ice-shelf disintegration that releases "armadas" of icebergs into the world ocean, to extract heat from ocean surface water and thereby reduce the critical ocean-to-atmosphere heat exchange that drives global climate. Ice sheets are the only component of Earth's climate machine that can destroy itself-- swiftly--and thereby radically and rapidly alter global climate and sea level.

Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

2010-05-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the British Antarctic Survey thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model (BASISM) to test the extent to which equilibrium state ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere are GCM dependent. Initial results which do not use GCM-specific topography suggest that employing different GCM climatologies with only small differences in surface air temperature and precipitation has a dramatic effect on the resultant Greenland ice sheet, where the end-member ice sheets vary from near modern to almost zero ice volume. As an extension of this analysis, we will also present results using a second ice sheet model (Glimmer), with a view to testing the degree to which end-member ice sheets are ice sheet model dependent, something which has not previously been addressed. Initially, BASISM and Glimmer will be internally optimised for performance, but we will also present a comparison where BASISM will be configured to the Glimmer model setup in a further test of ice sheet model dependency.

Ice_Sheets_CCI: Essential Climate Variables for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsberg, R.; Sørensen, L. S.; Khan, A.; Aas, C.; Evansberget, D.; Adalsteinsdottir, G.; Mottram, R.; Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrøm, A.; Dall, J.; Kusk, A.; Merryman, J.; Hvidberg, C.; Khvorostovsky, K.; Nagler, T.; Rott, H.; Scharrer, M.; Shepard, A.; Ticconi, F.; Engdahl, M.

2012-04-01

As part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (www.esa-cci.org) a long-term project "ice_sheets_cci" started January 1, 2012, in addition to the existing 11 projects already generating Essential Climate Variables (ECV) for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). The "ice_sheets_cci" goal is to generate a consistent, long-term and timely set of key climate parameters for the Greenland ice sheet, to maximize the impact of European satellite data on climate research, from missions such as ERS, Envisat and the future Sentinel satellites. The climate parameters to be provided, at first in a research context, and in the longer perspective by a routine production system, would be grids of Greenland ice sheet elevation changes from radar altimetry, ice velocity from repeat-pass SAR data, as well as time series of marine-terminating glacier calving front locations and grounding lines for floating-front glaciers. The ice_sheets_cci project will involve a broad interaction of the relevant cryosphere and climate communities, first through user consultations and specifications, and later in 2012 optional participation in "best" algorithm selection activities, where prototype climate parameter variables for selected regions and time frames will be produced and validated using an objective set of criteria ("Round-Robin intercomparison"). This comparative algorithm selection activity will be completely open, and we invite all interested scientific groups with relevant experience to participate. The results of the "Round Robin" exercise will form the algorithmic basis for the future ECV production system. First prototype results will be generated and validated by early 2014. The poster will show the planned outline of the project and some early prototype results.

Modelling large-scale ice-sheet-climate interactions at the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Browne, O. J. H.; Gregory, J. M.; Payne, A. J.; Ridley, J. K.; Rutt, I. C.

2010-05-01

In order to investigate the interactions between coevolving climate and ice-sheets on multimillenial timescales, a low-resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) has been coupled to a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model. We use the FAMOUS AOGCM, which is almost identical in formulation to the widely used HadCM3 AOGCM, but on account of its lower resolution (7.5° longitude × 5° latitude in the atmosphere, 3.75°× 2.5° in the ocean) it runs about ten times faster. We use the community ice-sheet model Glimmer at 20 km resolution, with the shallow ice approximation and an annual degree-day scheme for surface mass balance. With the FAMOUS-Glimmer coupled model, we have simulated the growth of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets at the last glacial inception, under constant orbital forcing and atmospheric composition for 116 ka BP. Ice grows in both regions, totalling 5.8 m of sea-level equivalent in 10 ka, slower than proxy records suggest. Positive climate feedbacks reinforce this growth at local scales (order hundreds of kilometres), where changes are an order of magnitude larger than on the global average. The albedo feedback (higher local albedo means a cooler climate) is important in the initial expansion of the ice-sheet area. The topography feedback (higher surface means a cooler climate) affects ice-sheet thickness and is not noticeable for the first 1 ka. These two feedbacks reinforce each other. Without them, the ice volume is ~90% less after 10 ka. In Laurentia, ice expands initially on the Canadian Arctic islands. The glaciation of the islands eventually cools the nearby mainland climate sufficiently to produce a positive mass balance there. Adjacent to the ice-sheets, cloud feedbacks tend to reduce the surface mass balance and restrain ice growth; this is an example of a local feedback whose simulation requires a model that includes detailed atmospheric physics.

Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the last glacial maximum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weber, Michael E.; Clark, Peter U.; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-01-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Weber, Michael E; Clark, Peter U; Ricken, Werner; Mitrovica, Jerry X; Hostetler, Steven W; Kuhn, Gerhard

2011-12-02

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood. We develop a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates that the advance to and retreat from their maximum extent was within dating uncertainties synchronous with most sectors of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Surface climate forcing of Antarctic mass balance would probably cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Our new data support teleconnections involving sea-level forcing from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and changes in North Atlantic deep-water formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines to synchronize the hemispheric ice sheets.

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

2014-01-01

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

Potential Climatic Effects on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, R. A.

1984-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics

PubMed Central

Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

Simulating a Dynamic Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Early to Middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasson, E.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.; Levy, R. H.

2015-12-01

There are a variety of sources of geological data that suggest major variations in the volume and extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the early to middle Miocene. Simulating such variability using coupled climate-ice sheet models is problematic due to a strong hysteresis effect caused by height-mass balance feedback and albedo feedback. This results in limited retreat of the ice sheet once it has reached the continental size, as likely occurred prior to the Miocene. Proxy records suggest a relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 during the early to middle Miocene, which exacerbates this problem. We use a new climate forcing which accounts for ice sheet-climate feedbacks through an asynchronous GCM-RCM coupling, which is able to better resolve the narrow Antarctic ablation zone in warm climate simulations. When combined with recently suggested mechanisms for retreat into subglacial basins due to ice shelf hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Miocene. This variability is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of ~0.5 ‰, or a sea level equivalent change of ~35 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 - 500 ppm.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level rise.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Ice sheet margins and ice shelves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, R. H.

1984-01-01

The effect of climate warming on the size of ice sheet margins in polar regions is considered. Particular attention is given to the possibility of a rapid response to warming on the order of tens to hundreds of years. It is found that the early response of the polar regions to climate warming would be an increase in the area of summer melt on the ice sheets and ice shelves. For sufficiently large warming (5-10C) the delayed effects would include the breakup of the ice shelves by an increase in ice drainage rates, particularly from the ice sheets. On the basis of published data for periodic changes in the thickness and melting rates of the marine ice sheets and fjord glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica, it is shown that the rate of retreat (or advance) of an ice sheet is primarily determined by: bedrock topography; the basal conditions of the grounded ice sheet; and the ice shelf condition downstream of the grounding line. A program of satellite and ground measurements to monitor the state of ice sheet equilibrium is recommended.

The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

2017-09-01

Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. We find that ice volume variability has a strong enhancing effect on atmospheric temperature changes, particularly in the regions where the ice sheets are located. As a result, polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases towards warmer climates as there is little land ice left to melt. Conversely, decay of the Antarctic ice sheet increases polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere in the high-CO2 regime. Our results also show that in cooler climates than the pre-industrial, the ice-albedo feedback predominates the surface-height-temperature feedback, while in warmer climates they are more equal in strength.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last Interglaciation: Insights from my Thesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whipple, Matthew; Lunt, Dan; Singarayer, Joy; Bradley, Sarah; Milne, Glenn; Wolff, Eric; Siddall, Mark

2015-04-01

The last interglaciation represents a period of warmer climates and higher sea levels, and a useful analogue to future climate. While many studies have focussed on the response of the Greenland Ice sheet, far less is known about the response of the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, I present the summarised results of my PhD thesis "Constraints on the minimum extent of the Antarctic ice sheet during the last interglaciation". Firstly, I cover the timings of interglaciation in Antarctica, and their differences with respect to the Northern Hemisphere timings, based on paleo sea level indicators, and oceanic temperature records. I move on to cover climate forcings, and how they influence the ice sheet, relative to present, and early Holocene. Secondly, I present thesis results, from looking at ice core stable water isotopes. These are compared with Isostatic and Climatic modelling results, for various different Ice sheet scenarios, as to the resulting Climate, from changes in Elevation, Temperature, Precipitation, and Sublimation, all contributing to the recorded stable water isotope record. Thirdly, I move on to looking at the mid-field relative sea level records, from Australia and Argentina. Using isostatic modelling, these are used to assess the relative contribution of the Eastern and Western Antarctic Ice sheets. Although data uncertainties result in us being to identify the contribution from West Antarctica. Overall, using model-data comparison, we find a lack of evidence for a substantial retreat of the Wilkes Subglacial basin. No data location is close enough to determine the existence of the marine based West Antarctic Ice sheet. Model uncertainty is unable to constrain evidence of variations in ice thickness in East Antarctica.

Interactive Ice Sheet Flowline Model for High School and College Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stearns, L. A.; Rezvanbehbahani, S.; Shankar, S.

2017-12-01

Teaching about climate and climate change is conceptually challenging. While teaching tools and lesson plans are rapidly evolving to help teachers and students improve their understanding of climate processes, there are very few tools targeting ice sheet and glacier dynamics. We have built an interactive ice sheet model that allows students to explore how Antarctic glaciers respond to different climate perturbations. Interactive models offer advantages that are hard to obtain in traditional classroom settings; users can systematically investigate hypothetical situations, explore the effects of modifying systems, and repeatedly observe how systems interrelate. As a result, this project provides a much-needed bridge between the data and models used by the scientific community and students in high school and college. We target our instructional and assessment activities to three high school and college students with the overall aim of increasing understanding of ice sheet dynamics and the different ways that ice sheets are impacted by climate change, while also improving their fundamental math skills.

Deglaciation of Fennoscandia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeven, Arjen P.; Hättestrand, Clas; Kleman, Johan; Heyman, Jakob; Fabel, Derek; Fredin, Ola; Goodfellow, Bradley W.; Harbor, Jonathan M.; Jansen, John D.; Olsen, Lars; Caffee, Marc W.; Fink, David; Lundqvist, Jan; Rosqvist, Gunhild C.; Strömberg, Bo; Jansson, Krister N.

2016-09-01

To provide a new reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, in the form of calendar-year time-slices, which are particularly useful for ice sheet modelling, we have compiled and synthesized published geomorphological data for eskers, ice-marginal formations, lineations, marginal meltwater channels, striae, ice-dammed lakes, and geochronological data from radiocarbon, varve, optically-stimulated luminescence, and cosmogenic nuclide dating. This is summarized as a deglaciation map of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet with isochrons marking every 1000 years between 22 and 13 cal kyr BP and every hundred years between 11.6 and final ice decay after 9.7 cal kyr BP. Deglaciation patterns vary across the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet domain, reflecting differences in climatic and geomorphic settings as well as ice sheet basal thermal conditions and terrestrial versus marine margins. For example, the ice sheet margin in the high-precipitation coastal setting of the western sector responded sensitively to climatic variations leaving a detailed record of prominent moraines and other ice-marginal deposits in many fjords and coastal valleys. Retreat rates across the southern sector differed between slow retreat of the terrestrial margin in western and southern Sweden and rapid retreat of the calving ice margin in the Baltic Basin. Our reconstruction is consistent with much of the published research. However, the synthesis of a large amount of existing and new data support refined reconstructions in some areas. For example, the LGM extent of the ice sheet in northwestern Russia was located far east and it occurred at a later time than the rest of the ice sheet, at around 17-15 cal kyr BP. We also propose a slightly different chronology of moraine formation over southern Sweden based on improved correlations of moraine segments using new LiDAR data and tying the timing of moraine formation to Greenland ice core cold stages. Retreat rates vary by as much as an order of magnitude in different sectors of the ice sheet, with the lowest rates on the high-elevation and maritime Norwegian margin. Retreat rates compared to the climatic information provided by the Greenland ice core record show a general correspondence between retreat rate and climatic forcing, although a close match between retreat rate and climate is unlikely because of other controls, such as topography and marine versus terrestrial margins. Overall, the time slice reconstructions of Fennoscandian Ice Sheet deglaciation from 22 to 9.7 cal kyr BP provide an important dataset for understanding the contexts that underpin spatial and temporal patterns in retreat of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and are an important resource for testing and refining ice sheet models.

Sensitivity of Pliocene ice sheets to orbital forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Hill, D.J.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.

2011-01-01

The stability of the Earth's major ice sheets is a critical uncertainty in predictions of future climate and sea level change. One method of investigating the behaviour of the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets in a warmer-than-modern climate is to look back at past warm periods of Earth history, for example the Pliocene. This paper presents climate and ice sheet modelling results for the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), which has been identified as a key interval for understanding warmer-than-modern climates (Jansen et al., 2007). Using boundary conditions supplied by the United States Geological Survey PRISM Group (Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping), the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model (HadCM3) and the British Antarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model (BASISM), we show large reductions in the Greenland and East Antarctic Ice Sheets (GrIS and EAIS) compared to modern in standard mPWP experiments. We also present the first results illustrating the variability of the ice sheets due to realistic orbital forcing during the mid-Pliocene. While GrIS volumes are lower than modern under even the most extreme (cold) mid-Pliocene orbit (losing at least 35% of its ice mass), the EAIS can both grow and shrink, losing up to 20% or gaining up to 10% of its present-day volume. The changes in ice sheet volume incurred by altering orbital forcing alone means that global sea level can vary by more than 25 m during the mid-Pliocene. However, we have also shown that the response of the ice sheets to mPWP orbital hemispheric forcing can be in anti-phase, whereby the greatest reductions in EAIS volume are concurrent with the smallest reductions of the GrIS. If this anti-phase relationship is in operation throughout the mPWP, then the total eustatic sea level response would be dampened compared to the ice sheet fluctuations that are theoretically possible. This suggests that maximum eustatic sea level rise does not correspond to orbital maxima, but occurs at times where the anti-phasing of Northern and Southern Hemisphere ice sheet retreat is minimised.

Final Laurentide ice-sheet deglaciation and Holocene climate-sea level change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Clark, Peter U.; Cuzzone, Joshua; Milne, Glenn A.; Winsor, Kelsey; Caffee, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Despite elevated summer insolation forcing during the early Holocene, global ice sheets retained nearly half of their volume from the Last Glacial Maximum, as indicated by deglacial records of global mean sea level (GMSL). Partitioning the GMSL rise among potential sources requires accurate dating of ice-sheet extent to estimate ice-sheet volume. Here, we date the final retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with 10Be surface exposure ages for the Labrador Dome, the largest of the remnant Laurentide ice domes during the Holocene. We show that the Labrador Dome deposited moraines during North Atlantic cold events at ∼10.3 ka, 9.3 ka and 8.2 ka, suggesting that these regional climate events helped stabilize the retreating Labrador Dome in the early Holocene. After Hudson Bay became seasonally ice free at ∼8.2 ka, the majority of Laurentide ice-sheet melted abruptly within a few centuries. We demonstrate through high-resolution regional climate model simulations that the thermal properties of a seasonally ice-free Hudson Bay would have increased Laurentide ice-sheet ablation and thus contributed to the subsequent rapid Labrador Dome retreat. Finally, our new 10Be chronology indicates full Laurentide ice-sheet had completely deglaciated by 6.7 ± 0.4 ka, which re quires that Antarctic ice sheets contributed 3.6–6.5 m to GMSL rise since 6.3–7.1 ka.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

An investigation of the astronomical theory of the ice ages using a simple climate-ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollard, D.

1978-01-01

The astronomical theory of the Quaternary ice ages is incorporated into a simple climate model for global weather; important features of the model include the albedo feedback, topography and dynamics of the ice sheets. For various parameterizations of the orbital elements, the model yields realistic assessments of the northern ice sheet. Lack of a land-sea heat capacity contrast represents one of the chief difficulties of the model.

Coupled ice sheet - climate simulations of the last glacial inception and last glacial maximum with a model of intermediate complexity that includes a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiquet, Aurélien; Roche, Didier M.

2017-04-01

Comprehensive fully coupled ice sheet - climate models allowing for multi-millenia transient simulations are becoming available. They represent powerful tools to investigate ice sheet - climate interactions during the repeated retreats and advances of continental ice sheets of the Pleistocene. However, in such models, most of the time, the spatial resolution of the ice sheet model is one order of magnitude lower than the one of the atmospheric model. As such, orography-induced precipitation is only poorly represented. In this work, we briefly present the most recent improvements of the ice sheet - climate coupling within the model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM. On the one hand, from the native atmospheric resolution (T21), we have included a dynamical downscaling of heat and moisture at the ice sheet model resolution (40 km x 40 km). This downscaling accounts for feedbacks of sub-grid precipitation on large scale energy and water budgets. From the sub-grid atmospheric variables, we compute an ice sheet surface mass balance required by the ice sheet model. On the other hand, we also explicitly use oceanic temperatures to compute sub-shelf melting at a given depth. Based on palaeo evidences for rate of change of eustatic sea level, we discuss the capability of our new model to correctly simulate the last glacial inception ( 116 kaBP) and the ice volume of the last glacial maximum ( 21 kaBP). We show that the model performs well in certain areas (e.g. Canadian archipelago) but some model biases are consistent over time periods (e.g. Kara-Barents sector). We explore various model sensitivities (e.g. initial state, vegetation, albedo) and we discuss the importance of the downscaling of precipitation for ice nucleation over elevated area and for the surface mass balance of larger ice sheets.

Global ice-sheet system interlocked by sea level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, George H.; Hughes, Terence J.; Karlén, Wibjörn

1986-07-01

Denton and Hughes (1983, Quaternary Research20, 125-144) postulated that sea level linked a global ice-sheet system with both terrestrial and grounded marine components during late Quaternary ice ages. Summer temperature changes near Northern Hemisphere melting margins initiated sea-level fluctuations that controlled marine components in both polar hemispheres. It was further proposed that variations of this ice-sheet system amplified and transmitted Milankovitch summer half-year insolation changes between 45 and 75°N into global climatic changes. New tests of this hypothesis implicate sea level as a major control of the areal extent of grounded portions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, thus fitting the concept of a globally interlocked ice-sheet system. But recent atmospheric modeling results ( Manabe and Broccoli, 1985, Journal of Geophysical Research90, 2167-2190) suggest that factors other than areal changes of the grounded Antarctic Ice Sheet strongly influenced Southern Hemisphere climate and terminated the last ice age simultaneously in both polar hemispheres. Atmospheric carbon dioxide linked to high-latitude oceans is the most likely candidate ( Shackleton and Pisias, 1985, Atmospheric carbon dioxide, orbital forcing, and climate. In "The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO 2: Natural Variations Archean to Present" (E. T. Sundquest and W. S. Broecker, Eds.), pp. 303-318. Geophysical Monograph 32, American Geophysical Union, Washington, D.C.), but another potential influence was high-frequency climatic oscillations (2500 yr). It is postulated that variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide acted through an Antarctic ice shelf linked to the grounded ice sheet to produce and terminate Southern Hemisphere ice-age climate. It is further postulated that Milankovitch summer insolation combined with a warm high-frequency oscillation caused marked recession of Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet melting margins and the North Atlantic polar front about 14,000 14C yr B.P. This permitted renewed formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, which could well have controlled atmospheric carbon dioxide ( W. S. Broecker, D. M. Peteet, and D. Rind, 1985, Nature ( London) 315, 21-26). Combined melting and consequent sea-level rise from the three warming factors initiated irreversible collapse of the interlocked global ice-sheet system, which was at its largest but most vulnerable configuration.

How and when to terminate the Pleistocene ice ages?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Takahashi, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Blatter, H.

2015-12-01

Climate change with wax and wane of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheet occurred in the past 800 thousand years characterized by 100 thousand year cycle with a large amplitude of sawtooth pattern, following a transition from a period of 40 thousand years cycle with small amplitude of ice sheet change at about 1 million years ago. Although the importance of insolation as the ultimate driver is now appreciated, the mechanism what determines timing and strength of terminations are far from clearly understood. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. We discuss further the mechanism which determine the timing of ice age terminations by examining the role of astronomical forcing and change of atmospheric carbon dioxide contents through sensitivity experiments and comparison of several ice age cycles with different settings of astronomical forcings.

Insolation-driven 100 kyr glacial cycles and millennial climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Saito, F.; Kawamura, K.; Raymo, M. E.; Okuno, J.; Takahashi, K.; Blatter, H.

2013-12-01

The waxing and waning of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past one million years is dominated by an approximately 100-kyr periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. However, insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100 kyr cycle which presumably arises through internal climatic feedbacks. Prior work with conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms of 100-kyr cycle at work remain unclear. Here, using comprehensive climate and ice sheet models, we show that the ~100-kyr periodicity is explained by insolation and internal feedback amongst the climate, ice sheet and lithosphere/asthenosphere system (reference). We found that equilibrium states of ice sheets exhibit hysteresis responses to summer insolation, and that the shape and position of the hysteresis loop play a key role in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that, after its inception, the ice sheet mass balance remains mostly positive or neutral through several precession cycles whose amplitude decreases towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to turn the mass balance to negative. Therefore, once the large ice sheet is established, only a moderate increase in insolation can trigger a negative mass balance, leading to a complete retreat within several thousand years, due to the delayed isostatic rebound. The effect of ocean circulation and millennial scale climate change are not playing the dominant role for determing the 100kyr cycle, but are effective for modifying the speed and geographical pattern of the waxing and waning of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and their melt water. (reference of the basic results: Abe-Ouchi et al, 2013, Insolation-driven 100,000 year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume, Nature, 500, 190-193.)

The influence of atmospheric grid resolution in a climate model-forced ice sheet simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, Marcus; Liakka, Johan

2018-04-01

Coupled climate-ice sheet simulations have been growing in popularity in recent years. Experiments of this type are however challenging as ice sheets evolve over multi-millennial timescales, which is beyond the practical integration limit of most Earth system models. A common method to increase model throughput is to trade resolution for computational efficiency (compromise accuracy for speed). Here we analyze how the resolution of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) influences the simulation quality in a stand-alone ice sheet model. Four identical AGCM simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were run at different horizontal resolutions: T85 (1.4°), T42 (2.8°), T31 (3.8°), and T21 (5.6°). These simulations were subsequently used as forcing of an ice sheet model. While the T85 climate forcing reproduces the LGM ice sheets to a high accuracy, the intermediate resolution cases (T42 and T31) fail to build the Eurasian ice sheet. The T21 case fails in both Eurasia and North America. Sensitivity experiments using different surface mass balance parameterizations improve the simulations of the Eurasian ice sheet in the T42 case, but the compromise is a substantial ice buildup in Siberia. The T31 and T21 cases do not improve in the same way in Eurasia, though the latter simulates the continent-wide Laurentide ice sheet in North America. The difficulty to reproduce the LGM ice sheets in the T21 case is in broad agreement with previous studies using low-resolution atmospheric models, and is caused by a substantial deterioration of the model climate between the T31 and T21 resolutions. It is speculated that this deficiency may demonstrate a fundamental problem with using low-resolution atmospheric models in these types of experiments.

The Gamburtsev mountains and the origin and early evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Bo, Sun; Siegert, Martin J; Mudd, Simon M; Sugden, David; Fujita, Shuji; Xiangbin, Cui; Yunyun, Jiang; Xueyuan, Tang; Yuansheng, Li

2009-06-04

Ice-sheet development in Antarctica was a result of significant and rapid global climate change about 34 million years ago. Ice-sheet and climate modelling suggest reductions in atmospheric carbon dioxide (less than three times the pre-industrial level of 280 parts per million by volume) that, in conjunction with the development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, led to cooling and glaciation paced by changes in Earth's orbit. Based on the present subglacial topography, numerical models point to ice-sheet genesis on mountain massifs of Antarctica, including the Gamburtsev mountains at Dome A, the centre of the present ice sheet. Our lack of knowledge of the present-day topography of the Gamburtsev mountains means, however, that the nature of early glaciation and subsequent development of a continental-sized ice sheet are uncertain. Here we present radar information about the base of the ice at Dome A, revealing classic Alpine topography with pre-existing river valleys overdeepened by valley glaciers formed when the mean summer surface temperature was around 3 degrees C. This landscape is likely to have developed during the initial phases of Antarctic glaciation. According to Antarctic climate history (estimated from offshore sediment records) the Gamburtsev mountains are probably older than 34 million years and were the main centre for ice-sheet growth. Moreover, the landscape has most probably been preserved beneath the present ice sheet for around 14 million years.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

The Physics of Ice Sheets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bassis, J. N.

2008-01-01

The great ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland are vast deposits of frozen freshwater that contain enough to raise sea level by approximately 70 m if they were to completely melt. Because of the potentially catastrophic impact that ice sheets can have, it is important that we understand how ice sheets have responded to past climate changes and…

Polar ice-sheet contributions to sea level during past warm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutton, A.

2015-12-01

Recent sea-level rise has been dominated by thermal expansion and glacier loss, but the contribution from mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is expected to exceed other contributions under future sustained warming. Due to limitations of existing ice sheet models and the lack of relevant analogues in the historical record, projecting the timing and magnitude of polar ice sheet mass loss in the future remains challenging. One approach to improving our understanding of how polar ice-sheet retreat will unfold is to integrate observations and models of sea level, ice sheets, and climate during past intervals of warmth when the polar ice sheets contributed to higher sea levels. A recent review evaluated the evidence of polar ice sheet mass loss during several warm periods, including interglacials during the mid-Pliocene warm period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, 5e (Last Interglacial), and 1 (Holocene). Sea-level benchmarks of ice-sheet retreat during the first of these three periods, when global mean climate was ~1 to 3 deg. C warmer than preindustrial, are useful for understanding the long-term potential for future sea-level rise. Despite existing uncertainties in these reconstructions, it is clear that our present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past, resulting in a conservative estimate for a global mean sea-level rise of 6 meters above present (or more). This presentation will focus on identifying the approaches that have yielded significant advances in terms of past sea level and ice sheet reconstruction as well as outstanding challenges. A key element of recent advances in sea-level reconstructions is the ability to recognize and quantify the imprint of geophysical processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and dynamic topography, that lead to significant spatial variability in sea level reconstructions. Identifying specific ice-sheet sources that contributed to higher sea levels is a challenge that is currently hindered by limited field evidence at high latitudes. Finally, I will explore the concept of how increasing the quantity and quality of paleo sea level and ice sheet reconstructions can lead to improved quantification of contemporary changes in ice sheets and sea level.

A middle Pleistocene through middle Miocene moraine sequence in the central Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balter, A.; Bromley, G. R.; Balco, G.; Thomas, H.; Jackson, M. S.

2017-12-01

Ice-free areas at high elevation in the central Transantarctic Mountains preserve extensive moraine sequences and drift deposits that comprise a geologic record of former East Antarctic Ice Sheet thickness and extent. We are applying cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating to determine the ages of these moraine sequences at Roberts Massif and Otway Massif, at the heads of the Shackleton and Beardmore Glaciers, respectively. Moraines at these sites are for the most part openwork boulder belts characteristic of deposition by cold-based ice, which is consistent with present climate and glaciological conditions. To develop our chronology, we collected samples from 30 distinct ice-marginal landforms and have so far measured >100 3He, 10Be, and 21Ne exposure ages. Apparent exposure ages range from 1-14 Ma, which shows that these landforms record glacial events between the middle Pleistocene and middle Miocene. These data show that the thickness of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in this region was similar to or thicker than present for long periods between the middle Miocene and today. The time range represented by these moraine sequences indicates that they may also provide direct geologic evidence for East Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior during past periods of warmer-than-present climate, specifically the Miocene and Pliocene. As the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice sheet on earth, understanding its sensitivity to warm-climate conditions is critical for projections of ice sheet behavior and sea-level rise in future warm climates.

Inception of the Laurentide Ice Sheet using asynchronous coupling of a regional atmospheric model and an ice model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birch, L.; Cronin, T.; Tziperman, E.

2017-12-01

The climate over the past 0.8 million years has been dominated by ice ages. Ice sheets have grown about every 100 kyrs, starting from warm interglacials, until they spanned continents. State-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating glacial inception, or the transition of Earth's climate from an interglacial to a glacial state. It has been suggested that this failure may be related to their poorly resolved local mountain topography, due to their coarse spatial resolution. We examine this idea as well as the possible role of ice flow dynamics missing in GCMs. We investigate the growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet at 115 kya by focusing on the mountain glaciers of Canada's Baffin Island, where geologic evidence indicates the last inception occurred. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) in a regional, cloud-resolving configuration with resolved mountain terrain to explore how quickly Baffin Island could become glaciated with the favorable yet realizable conditions of 115 kya insolation, cool summers, and wet winters. Using the model-derived mountain glacier mass balance, we force an ice sheet model based on the shallow-ice approximation, capturing the ice flow that may be critical to the spread of ice sheets away from mountain ice caps. The ice sheet model calculates the surface area newly covered by ice and the change in the ice surface elevation, which we then use to run WRF again. Through this type of iterated asynchronous coupling, we investigate how the regional climate responds to both larger areas of ice cover and changes in ice surface elevation. In addition, we use the NOAH-MP Land model to characterize the importance of land processes, like refreezing. We find that initial ice growth on the Penny Ice Cap causes regional cooling that increases the accumulation on the Barnes Ice Cap. We investigate how ice and topography changes on Baffin Island may impact both the regional climate and the large-scale circulation.

Glaciological constraints on current ice mass changes from modelling the ice sheets over the glacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybrechts, P.

2003-04-01

The evolution of continental ice sheets introduces a long time scale in the climate system. Large ice sheets have a memory of millenia, hence the present-day ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica are still adjusting to climatic variations extending back to the last glacial period. This trend is separate from the direct response to mass-balance changes on decadal time scales and needs to be correctly accounted for when assessing current and future contributions to sea level. One way to obtain estimates of current ice mass changes is to model the past history of the ice sheets and their underlying beds over the glacial cycles. Such calculations assist to distinguish between the longer-term ice-dynamic evolution and short-term mass-balance changes when interpreting altimetry data, and are helpful to isolate the effects of postglacial rebound from gravity and altimetry trends. The presentation will discuss results obtained from 3-D thermomechanical ice-sheet/lithosphere/bedrock models applied to the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. The simulations are forced by time-dependent boundary conditions derived from sediment and ice core records and are constrained by geomorphological and glacial-geological data of past ice sheet and sea-level stands. Current simulations suggest that the Greenland ice sheet is close to balance, while the Antarctic ice sheet is still losing mass, mainly due to incomplete grounding-line retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet since the LGM. The results indicate that altimetry trends are likely dominated by ice thickness changes but that the gravitational signal mainly reflects postglacial rebound.

Exposure age and ice-sheet model constraints on Pliocene East Antarctic ice sheet dynamics.

PubMed

Yamane, Masako; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Obrochta, Stephen; Saito, Fuyuki; Moriwaki, Kiichi; Matsuzaki, Hiroyuki

2015-04-24

The Late Pliocene epoch is a potential analogue for future climate in a warming world. Here we reconstruct Plio-Pleistocene East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) variability using cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages and model simulations to better understand ice sheet behaviour under such warm conditions. New and previously published exposure ages indicate interior-thickening during the Pliocene. An ice sheet model with mid-Pliocene boundary conditions also results in interior thickening and suggests that both the Wilkes Subglacial and Aurora Basins largely melted, offsetting increased ice volume. Considering contributions from West Antarctica and Greenland, this is consistent with the most recent IPCC AR5 estimate, which indicates that the Pliocene sea level likely did not exceed +20 m on Milankovitch timescales. The inception of colder climate since ∼3 Myr has increased the sea ice cover and inhibited active moisture transport to Antarctica, resulting in reduced ice sheet thickness, at least in coastal areas.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff.

PubMed

Van Tricht, K; Lhermitte, S; Lenaerts, J T M; Gorodetskaya, I V; L'Ecuyer, T S; Noël, B; van den Broeke, M R; Turner, D D; van Lipzig, N P M

2016-01-12

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m(-2). Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise.

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet meltwater runoff

PubMed Central

Van Tricht, K.; Lhermitte, S.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Gorodetskaya, I. V.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.; Noël, B.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Turner, D. D.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.

2016-01-01

The Greenland ice sheet has become one of the main contributors to global sea level rise, predominantly through increased meltwater runoff. The main drivers of Greenland ice sheet runoff, however, remain poorly understood. Here we show that clouds enhance meltwater runoff by about one-third relative to clear skies, using a unique combination of active satellite observations, climate model data and snow model simulations. This impact results from a cloud radiative effect of 29.5 (±5.2) W m−2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, however, the Greenland ice sheet responds to this energy through a new pathway by which clouds reduce meltwater refreezing as opposed to increasing surface melt directly, thereby accelerating bare-ice exposure and enhancing meltwater runoff. The high sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to both ice-only and liquid-bearing clouds highlights the need for accurate cloud representations in climate models, to better predict future contributions of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea level rise. PMID:26756470

Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 1: Greenland (1958-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noël, Brice; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Melchior van Wessem, J.; van Meijgaard, Erik; van As, Dirk; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Kuipers Munneke, Peter; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-03-01

We evaluate modelled Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) near-surface climate, surface energy balance (SEB) and surface mass balance (SMB) from the updated regional climate model RACMO2 (1958-2016). The new model version, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates updated glacier outlines, topography and ice albedo fields. Parameters in the cloud scheme governing the conversion of cloud condensate into precipitation have been tuned to correct inland snowfall underestimation: snow properties are modified to reduce drifting snow and melt production in the ice sheet percolation zone. The ice albedo prescribed in the updated model is lower at the ice sheet margins, increasing ice melt locally. RACMO2.3p2 shows good agreement compared to in situ meteorological data and point SEB/SMB measurements, and better resolves the spatial patterns and temporal variability of SMB compared with the previous model version, notably in the north-east, south-east and along the K-transect in south-western Greenland. This new model version provides updated, high-resolution gridded fields of the GrIS present-day climate and SMB, and will be used for projections of the GrIS climate and SMB in response to a future climate scenario in a forthcoming study.

A transient fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulation of the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.; Brady, E. C.

2017-12-01

The last glacial inception occurred around 115 ka, following a relative minimum in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. It is believed that small and spatially separated ice caps initially formed in the high elevation regions of northern Canada, Scandinavia, and along the Siberian Arctic coast. These ice caps subsequently migrated down in the valleys where they coalesced and formed the initial seeds of the large coherent ice masses that covered the northern parts of the North American and Eurasian continents over most of the last glacial cycle. Sea level records show that the initial growth period lasted for about 10 kyrs, and the resulting ice sheets may have lowered the global sea level by as much as 30 to 50 meters. Here we examine the transient climate system evolution over the period between 118 and 110 ka, using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). This model features a two-way coupled high-resolution (4x4 km) ice-sheet component (Community Ice Sheet model, version 2; CISM2) that simulates ice sheets as an interactive component of the climate system. We impose a transient forcing protocol where the greenhouse gas concentrations and the orbital parameters follow the nominal year in the simulation; the model topography is also dynamically evolving in order to reflect changes in ice elevation throughout the simulation. The analysis focuses on how the climate system evolves over this time interval, with a special focus on glacial inception in the high-latitude continents. Results will highlight how the evolving ice sheets compare to data and previous model based reconstructions.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Discharge Driven by Atmosphere-Ocean Feedbacks Across the Last Glacial Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Baker, A.; Weber, M. E.; Woodward, J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Davies, S. M.; Bird, M. I.; Winter, K.; Munksgaard, N.; Menviel, L.; Rootes, C.; Vohra, J.; Rivera, A.; Cooper, A.

2016-12-01

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to identify ice-climate feedbacks that could improve future projections1,2. Whilst the sequence of events during this period are reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records2, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, climate change and sea-level rise3-5. Here we present results from a highly-resolved `horizontal ice core'6,7 from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale ice-sheet dynamics across this extensive sector of Antarctica. Counterintuitively, we find ice-sheet surface drawdown of 600 m across the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago)5, with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth system and ice-sheet modelling highlights that this response was likely sustained by strong ocean-ice feedbacks4,8; however, the drivers remain uncertain. Given the coincidence of the ice-sheet changes recorded with marked shifts in atmospheric circulation9,10,11we suggest that millennial-scale Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour was initiated and sustained by global atmospheric teleconnections across the LGT. This has important ramifications ice-sheet stability under contemporary climate change, with changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. 1 Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. 2 Weber, M. E. et al. Nature 510, 134-138, (2014). 3 Weaver, A. J., et al., Science 299, 1709-1713, (2003). 4 Golledge, N. R. et al. Nat Commun 5, (2014). 5 Pedro, J. B. et al. Nature Geosci9. 51-55 (2015). 6 Turney, C. S. M. et al. Journal of Quaternary Science 28, 697-704 (2013). 7 Winter, K. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett.43. 5. 2019-2026 (2016). 8 Menviel, L., A. et al., Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 1155-1172 (2011). 9 Hogg, A. et al. Scientific Reports 6(2016). 10 Hughen, K. A., et al., Radiocarbon 46, 1161-1187 (2004). 11 Anderson, R. F. et al. Science 323, 1443-1448, doi:10.1126/science.1167441 (2009).

How might the North American ice sheet influence the northwestern Eurasian climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beghin, P.; Charbit, S.; Dumas, C.; Kageyama, M.; Ritz, C.

2015-10-01

It is now widely acknowledged that past Northern Hemisphere ice sheets covering Canada and northern Europe at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) exerted a strong influence on climate by causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulations. In turn, these changes may have impacted the development of the ice sheets themselves through a combination of different feedback mechanisms. The present study is designed to investigate the potential impact of the North American ice sheet on the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Eurasian ice sheet driven by simulated changes in the past glacial atmospheric circulation. Using the LMDZ5 atmospheric circulation model, we carried out 12 experiments under constant LGM conditions for insolation, greenhouse gases and ocean. In these experiments, the Eurasian ice sheet is removed. The 12 experiments differ in the North American ice-sheet topography, ranging from a white and flat (present-day topography) ice sheet to a full-size LGM ice sheet. This experimental design allows the albedo and the topographic impacts of the North American ice sheet onto the climate to be disentangled. The results are compared to our baseline experiment where both the North American and the Eurasian ice sheets have been removed. In summer, the sole albedo effect of the American ice sheet modifies the pattern of planetary waves with respect to the no-ice-sheet case, resulting in a cooling of the northwestern Eurasian region. By contrast, the atmospheric circulation changes induced by the topography of the North American ice sheet lead to a strong decrease of this cooling. In winter, the Scandinavian and the Barents-Kara regions respond differently to the American ice-sheet albedo effect: in response to atmospheric circulation changes, Scandinavia becomes warmer and total precipitation is more abundant, whereas the Barents-Kara area becomes cooler with a decrease of convective processes, causing a decrease of total precipitation. The gradual increase of the altitude of the American ice sheet leads to less total precipitation and snowfall and to colder temperatures over both the Scandinavian and the Barents and Kara sea sectors. We then compute the resulting annual surface mass balance over the Fennoscandian region from the simulated temperature and precipitation fields used to force an ice-sheet model. It clearly appears that the SMB is dominated by the ablation signal. In response to the summer cooling induced by the American ice-sheet albedo, high positive SMB values are obtained over the Eurasian region, leading thus to the growth of an ice sheet. On the contrary, the gradual increase of the American ice-sheet altitude induces more ablation over the Eurasian sector, hence limiting the growth of Fennoscandia. To test the robustness of our results with respect to the Eurasian ice sheet state, we carried out two additional LMDZ experiments with new boundary conditions involving both the American (flat or full LGM) and high Eurasian ice sheets. The most striking result is that the Eurasian ice sheet is maintained under full-LGM North American ice-sheet conditions, but loses ~ 10 % of its mass compared to the case in which the North American ice sheet is flat. These new findings qualitatively confirm the conclusions from our first series of experiments and suggest that the development of the Eurasian ice sheet may have been slowed down by the growth of the American ice sheet, offering thereby a new understanding of the evolution of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets throughout glacial-interglacial cycles.

Quantifying Uncertainty in the Greenland Surface Mass Balance Elevation Feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, T.

2015-12-01

As the shape of the Greenland ice sheet responds to changes in surface mass balance (SMB) and dynamics, it affects the surface mass balance through the atmospheric lapse rate and by altering atmospheric circulation patterns. Positive degree day models include simplified representations of this feedback, but it is difficult to simulate with state-of-the-art models because it requires coupling of regional climate models with dynamical ice sheet models, which is technically challenging. This difficulty, along with the high computational expense of regional climate models, also drastically limits opportunities for exploring the impact of modelling uncertainties on sea level projections. We present a parameterisation of the SMB-elevation feedback in the MAR regional climate model that provides a far easier and quicker estimate than atmosphere-ice sheet model coupling, which can be used with any ice sheet model. This allows us to use ensembles of different parameter values and ice sheet models to assess the effect of uncertainty in the feedback and ice sheet model structure on future sea level projections. We take a Bayesian approach to uncertainty in the feedback parameterisation, scoring the results from multiple possible "SMB lapse rates" according to how well they reproduce a MAR simulation with altered ice sheet topography. We test the impact of the resulting parameterisation on sea level projections using five ice sheet models forced by MAR (in turned forced by two different global climate models) under the emissions scenario A1B. The estimated additional sea level contribution due to the SMB-elevation feedback is 4.3% at 2100 (95% credibility interval 1.8-6.9%), and 9.6% at 2200 (3.6-16.0%).

Unveiling climate and ice-sheet history from drilling in high-latitude margins and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escutia Dotti, Carlota

2010-05-01

Polar ice is an important component of the climate system, affecting global sea level, ocean circulation and heat transport, marine productivity, and albedo. During the last decades drilling in the Arctic (IODP ACEX and Bering Expeditions) and in Antarctica (ODP Legs 178, 188, IODP Expedition 318 and ANDRILL) has revealed regional information about sea ice and ice sheets development and evolution. Integration of this data with numerical modeling provide an understanding of the early development of the ice sheets and their variability through the Cenozoic. Much of this work points to atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases concentrations as important triggering mechanism driving the onset of glaciation and subsequent ice volume variability. With current increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations resulting in rapidly rising global temperatures, studies of polar climates become increasingly prominent on the research agenda. Despite of the relevance of the high-latitudes in the global climate systems, the short- and long-term history of the ice sheets and sea-ice and its relationships with paleoclimatic, paleoceanographic, and sea level changes is still poorly understood. A multinational, multiplatform scientific drilling strategy is being developed to recover key physical evidence from selected high-latitude areas. This strategy is aimed at addressing key knowledge gaps about the role of polar ice in climate change, targeting questions such as timing of events, rates of change, tipping points, regional variations, and northern vs. southern hemispheres (in phase or out-of-phase) variability. This data is critical to provide constrains to sea-ice and ice sheet models, which are the basis for forecasting the future of the cryosphere in a warming world.

Modeling North American Ice Sheet Response to Changes in Precession and Obliquity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, C.; Poulsen, C. J.; Pollard, D.

2012-12-01

Milankovitch theory proposes that changes in insolation due to orbital perturbations dictate the waxing and waning of the ice sheets (Hays et al., 1976). However, variations in solar forcing alone are insufficient to produce the glacial oscillations observed in the climate record. Non-linear feedbacks in the Earth system likely work in concert with the orbital cycles to produce a modified signal (e.g. Berger and Loutre, 1996), but the nature of these feedbacks remain poorly understood. To gain a better understand of the ice dynamics and climate feedbacks associated with changes in orbital configuration, we use a complex Earth system model consisting of the GENESIS GCM and land surface model (Pollard and Thompson, 1997), the Pennsylvania State University ice sheet model (Pollard and DeConto, 2009), and the BIOME vegetation model (Kaplan et al., 2001). We began this study by investigating ice sheet sensitivity to a range of commonly used ice sheet model parameters, including mass balance and albedo, to optimize simulations for Pleistocene orbital cycles. Our tests indicate that choice of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can lead to significant differences in ice sheet behavior and volume. For instance, use of an insolation-temperature mass balance scheme (van den Berg, 2008) allows for a larger ice sheet response to orbital changes than the commonly employed positive degree-day method. Inclusion of a large temperature dependent ice albedo, representing phenomena such as melt ponds and dirty ice, also enhances ice sheet sensitivity. Careful tuning of mass balance and albedo parameterizations can help alleviate the problem of insufficient ice sheet retreat during periods of high summer insolation (Horton and Poulsen, 2007) while still accurately replicating the modern climate. Using our optimized configuration, we conducted a series of experiments with idealized transient orbits in an asynchronous coupling scheme to investigate the influence of obliquity and precession on the Laurentide and Cordillera ice sheets of North America. Preliminary model results show that the ice sheet response to changes in obliquity are larger than for precession despite providing a smaller direct insolation variation in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. A combination of enhanced Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude temperature gradient and longer cycle duration allow for a larger ice sheet response to obliquity than would be expected from insolation forcing alone. Conversely, a shorter duration dampens the ice sheet response to precession. Nevertheless, the precession cycle does cause significant changes in ice volume, a feature not observed in the Early Pleistocene δ18O records (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003). Future work will examine the climate response to an idealized transient orbit that includes concurrent variations in obliquity, precession, and eccentricity.

Laurentide Ice-Sheet Meltwater Sources to the Gulf of Mexico During the Last Deglaciation: Assessing Data Reconstructions Using Water Isotope Enabled Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vetter, L.; LeGrande, A. N.; Ullman, D. J.; Carlson, A. E.

2017-12-01

Sediment cores from the Gulf of Mexico show evidence of meltwater derived from the Laurentide Ice Sheet during the last deglaciation. Recent studies using geochemical measurements of individual foraminifera suggest changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the meltwater as deglaciation proceeded. Here we use the water isotope enabled climate model simulations (NASA GISS ModelE-R) to investigate potential sources of meltwater within the ice sheet. We find that initial melting of the ice sheet from the southern margin contributed an oxygen isotope value reflecting a low-elevation, local precipitation source. As deglacial melting proceeded, meltwater delivered to the Gulf of Mexico had a more negative oxygen isotopic value, which the climate model simulates as being sourced from the high-elevation, high-latitude interior of the ice sheet. This study demonstrates the utility of combining stable isotope analyses with climate model simulations to investigate past changes in the hydrologic cycle.

Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial-interglacial cycles through the Quaternary. Bailey, I., Bolton, C.T., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Schiebel, R. and Wilson, P.A. (2010) A low threshold for North Atlantic ice rafting from "low-slung slippery" late Pliocene ice sheets. Paleoceanography, 25, PA1212-[14pp]. (doi:10.1029/2009PA001736).

Clouds enhance Greenland ice sheet mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Tricht, Kristof; Gorodetskaya, Irina V.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Noel, Brice; Turner, David D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2015-04-01

Clouds have a profound influence on both the Arctic and global climate, while they still represent one of the key uncertainties in climate models, limiting the fidelity of future climate projections. The potentially important role of thin liquid-containing clouds over Greenland in enhancing ice sheet melt has recently gained interest, yet current research is spatially and temporally limited, focusing on particular events, and their large scale impact on the surface mass balance remains unknown. We used a combination of satellite remote sensing (CloudSat - CALIPSO), ground-based observations and climate model (RACMO) data to show that liquid-containing clouds warm the Greenland ice sheet 94% of the time. High surface reflectivity (albedo) for shortwave radiation reduces the cloud shortwave cooling effect on the absorbed fluxes, while not influencing the absorption of longwave radiation. Cloud warming over the ice sheet therefore dominates year-round. Only when albedo values drop below ~0.6 in the coastal areas during summer, the cooling effect starts to overcome the warming effect. The year-round excess of energy due to the presence of liquid-containing clouds has an extensive influence on the mass balance of the ice sheet. Simulations using the SNOWPACK snow model showed not only a strong influence of these liquid-containing clouds on melt increase, but also on the increased sublimation mass loss. Simulations with the Community Earth System Climate Model for the end of the 21st century (2080-2099) show that Greenland clouds contain more liquid water path and less ice water path. This implies that cloud radiative forcing will be further enhanced in the future. Our results therefore urge the need for improving cloud microphysics in climate models, to improve future projections of ice sheet mass balance and global sea level rise.

Long term ice sheet mass change rates and inter-annual variability from GRACE gravimetry.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harig, C.

2017-12-01

The GRACE time series of gravimetry now stretches 15 years since its launch in 2002. Here we use Slepian functions to estimate the long term ice mass trends of Greenland, Antarctica, and several glaciated regions. The spatial representation shows multi-year to decadal regional shifts in accelerations, in agreement with increases in radar derived ice velocity. Interannual variations in ice mass are of particular interest since they can directly link changes in ice sheets to the drivers of change in the polar ocean and atmosphere. The spatial information retained in Slepian functions provides a tool to determine how this link varies in different regions within an ice sheet. We present GRACE observations of the 2013-2014 slowdown in mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which was concentrated in specific parts of the ice sheet and in certain months of the year. We also discuss estimating the relative importance of climate factors that control ice mass balance, as a function of location of the glacier/ice cap as well as the spatial variation within an ice sheet by comparing gravimetry with observations of surface air temperature, ocean temperature, etc. as well as model data from climate reanalysis products.

Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.

2014-12-01

The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.

How much can Greenland melt? An upper bound on mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet through surface melting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Bassis, J. N.

2015-12-01

With observations showing accelerated mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet due to surface melt, the Greenland Ice Sheet is becoming one of the most significant contributors to sea level rise. The contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet o sea level rise is likely to accelerate in the coming decade and centuries as atmospheric temperatures continue to rise, potentially triggering ever larger surface melt rates. However, at present considerable uncertainty remains in projecting the contribution to sea level of the Greenland Ice Sheet both due to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and the ice sheet response to climate forcing. Here we seek an upper bound on the contribution of surface melt from the Greenland to sea level rise in the coming century using a surface energy balance model coupled to an englacial model. We use IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5, RCP6, RCP4.5, RCP2.6) climate scenarios from an ensemble of global climate models in our simulations to project the maximum rate of ice volume loss and related sea-level rise associated with surface melting. To estimate the upper bound, we assume the Greenland Ice Sheet is perpetually covered in thick clouds, which maximize longwave radiation to the ice sheet. We further assume that deposition of black carbon darkens the ice substantially turning it nearly black, substantially reducing its albedo. Although assuming that all melt water not stored in the snow/firn is instantaneously transported off the ice sheet increases mass loss in the short term, refreezing of retained water warms the ice and may lead to more melt in the long term. Hence we examine both assumptions and use the scenario that leads to the most surface melt by 2100. Preliminary models results suggest that under the most aggressive climate forcing, surface melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet contributes ~1 m to sea level by the year 2100. This is a significant contribution and ignores dynamic effects. We also examined a lower bound, assuming negligible longwave radiation and albedo near the maximum observed for freshly fallen snow. Even under this scenarios preliminary estimates suggest tens of centimeters of sea level rise by 2100.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

Active volcanism beneath the West Antarctic ice sheet and implications for ice-sheet stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blankenship, D.D.; Bell, R.E.; Hodge, S.M.; Brozena, J.M.; Behrendt, John C.; Finn, C.A.

1993-01-01

IT is widely understood that the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) would cause a global sea level rise of 6 m, yet there continues to be considerable debate about the detailed response of this ice sheet to climate change1-3. Because its bed is grounded well below sea level, the stability of the WAIS may depend on geologically controlled conditions at the base which are independent of climate. In particular, heat supplied to the base of the ice sheet could increase basal melting and thereby trigger ice streaming, by providing the water for a lubricating basal layer of till on which ice streams are thought to slide4,5. Ice streams act to protect the reservoir of slowly moving inland ice from exposure to oceanic degradation, thus enhancing ice-sheet stability. Here we present aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism and associated elevated heat flow beneath the WAIS near the critical region where ice streaming begins. If this heat flow is indeed controlling ice-stream formation, then penetration of ocean waters inland of the thin hot crust of the active portion of the West Antarctic rift system could lead to the disappearance of ice streams, and possibly trigger a collapse of the inland ice reservoir.

Antarctic Circumpolar Current Dynamics and Their Relation to Antarctic Ice Sheet and Perennial Sea-Ice Variability in the Central Drake Passage During the Last Climate Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhn, G.; Wu, S.; Hass, H. C.; Klages, J. P.; Zheng, X.; Arz, H. W.; Esper, O.; Hillenbrand, C. D.; Lange, C.; Lamy, F.; Lohmann, G.; Müller, J.; McCave, I. N. N.; Nürnberg, D.; Roberts, J.; Tiedemann, R.; Timmermann, A.; Titschack, J.; Zhang, X.

2017-12-01

The evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the last climate cycle and the interrelation to global atmospheric and ocean circulation remains controversial and plays an important role for our understanding of ice sheet response to modern global warming. The timing and sequence of deglacial warming is relevant for understanding the variability and sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climatic changes, and the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is a pivotal component of the global water budget. Freshwater fluxes from the ice sheet may affect the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which is strongly impacted by the westerly wind belt in the Southern Hemisphere (SHWW) and constricted to its narrowest extent in the Drake Passage. The flow of ACC water masses through Drake Passage is, therefore, crucial for advancing our understanding of the Southern Ocean's role in global meridional overturning circulation and global climate change. In order to address orbital and millennial-scale variability of the Antarctic ice sheet and the ACC, we applied a multi-proxy approach on a sediment core from the central Drake Passage including grain size, iceberg-rafted debris, mineral dust, bulk chemical and mineralogical composition, and physical properties. In combination with already published and new sediment records from the Drake Passage and Scotia Sea, as well as high-resolution data from Antarctic ice cores (WDC, EDML), we now have evidence that during glacial times a more northerly extent of the perennial sea-ice zone decreased ACC current velocities in the central Drake Passage. During deglaciation the SHWW shifted southwards due to a decreasing temperature gradient between subtropical and polar latitudes caused by sea ice and ice sheet decline. This in turn caused Southern Hemisphere warming, a more vigorous ACC, stronger Southern Ocean ventilation, and warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) upwelling on Antarctic shelves resulting in increased ice shelf melting. Stronger upwelling is associated with a rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide to reach a threshold at which full deglaciation could become inevitable.

Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, M. E.; Clark, P. U.; Ricken, W.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Hostetler, S. W.; Kuhn, G.

2012-04-01

The timing of the last maximum extent of the Antarctic ice sheets relative to those in the Northern Hemisphere remains poorly understood because only a few findings with robust chronologies exist for Antarctic ice sheets. We developed a chronology for the Weddell Sea sector of the East Antarctic ice sheet that, combined with ages from other Antarctic ice-sheet sectors, indicates the advance to their maximum extent at 29 -28 ka, and retreat from their maximum extent at 19 ka was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (Weber, M.E., Clark, P. U., Ricken, W., Mitrovica, J. X., Hostetler, S. W., and Kuhn, G. (2011): Interhemispheric ice-sheet synchronicity during the Last Glacial Maximum. - Science, 334, 1265-1269, doi: 10.1126:science.1209299). As for the deglaciation, modeling studies suggest a late ice-sheet retreat starting around 14 ka BP and ending around 7 ka BP with a large impact of an unstable West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and a small impact of a stable East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, the Weddell Sea sites studied here, as well as sites from the Scotia Sea, provide evidence that specifically the EAIS responded much earlier, possibly provided a significant contribution to the last sea-level rise, and was much more dynamic than previously thought. Using the results of an atmospheric general circulation we conclude that surface climate forcing of Antarctic ice mass balance would likely cause an opposite response, whereby a warming climate would increase accumulation but not surface melting. Furthermore, our new data support teleconnections involving a sea-level fingerprint forced from Northern Hemisphere ice sheets as indicated by gravitational modeling. Also, changes in North Atlantic Deepwater formation and attendant heat flux to Antarctic grounding lines may have contributed to synchronizing the hemispheric ice sheets.

Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume.

PubMed

Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Saito, Fuyuki; Kawamura, Kenji; Raymo, Maureen E; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Takahashi, Kunio; Blatter, Heinz

2013-08-08

The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.

The role of ice shelves in the Holocene evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Thomas, Maik

2014-05-01

Using the continental-scale ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]), we assess the influence of ice shelves on the Holocene evolution and present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice sheet. We have designed a series of paleoclimate simulations driven by a time-evolved climate forcing that couples the surface temperature record from the Vostok ice core with precipitation pattern using an empirical relation of Dahl-Jensen et al., (1998) [3]. Our numerical experiments show that the geometry of ice shelves is determined by the evolution of climate and ocean conditions over time scales of 15 to 25 kyr. This implies that the initial configuration of ice shelves at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, about 21 kyr before present) has a significant effect on the modelled Early Holocene volume of ice shelves (up to 20%) that gradually diminishes to a negligible level for the present-day ice shelf configuration. Thus, the present-day geometry of the Antarctic ice shelves can be attained even if an ice-shelf-free initial condition is chosen at the LGM. However, the grounded ice volume, thickness and dynamic states are found to be sensitive to the ice shelf dynamics over a longer history spanning several tens of thousands of years. A presence of extensive marine ice at the LGM, supported by sediment core reconstructions (e.g. Naish et al., 2009 [4]), has a clear buttressing effect on the grounded ice that remains significant over a period of 30 to 50 kyr. If ice-shelf-free conditions are prescribed at the LGM, the modelled Early Holocene and present-day grounded ice volumes are underestimated by up to 10%, as opposed to simulations incorporating ice shelf dynamics over longer periods. The use of ice-shelf-free LGM conditions thus results in 50 to over 200 meters thinner ice sheet across much of East Antarctica. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G. D., Johnsen, S. J., Hansen, A. W., and Balling, N. (1998). Past temperatures directly from the Greenland ice sheet. Science, 282(5387), 268-271. [4] Naish, T., Powell, R., Levy, R., Wilson, G., Scherer, R., Talarico, F., ... and Schmitt, D. (2009). Obliquity-paced Pliocene West Antarctic ice sheet oscillations. Nature, 458(7236), 322-328.

Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage.

PubMed

Sundal, Aud Venke; Shepherd, Andrew; Nienow, Peter; Hanna, Edward; Palmer, Steven; Huybrechts, Philippe

2011-01-27

Fluctuations in surface melting are known to affect the speed of glaciers and ice sheets, but their impact on the Greenland ice sheet in a warming climate remains uncertain. Although some studies suggest that greater melting produces greater ice-sheet acceleration, others have identified a long-term decrease in Greenland's flow despite increased melting. Here we use satellite observations of ice motion recorded in a land-terminating sector of southwest Greenland to investigate the manner in which ice flow develops during years of markedly different melting. Although peak rates of ice speed-up are positively correlated with the degree of melting, mean summer flow rates are not, because glacier slowdown occurs, on average, when a critical run-off threshold of about 1.4 centimetres a day is exceeded. In contrast to the first half of summer, when flow is similar in all years, speed-up during the latter half is 62 ± 16 per cent less in warmer years. Consequently, in warmer years, the period of fast ice flow is three times shorter and, overall, summer ice flow is slower. This behaviour is at odds with that expected from basal lubrication alone. Instead, it mirrors that of mountain glaciers, where melt-induced acceleration of flow ceases during years of high melting once subglacial drainage becomes efficient. A model of ice-sheet flow that captures switching between cavity and channel drainage modes is consistent with the run-off threshold, fast-flow periods, and later-summer speeds we have observed. Simulations of the Greenland ice-sheet flow under climate warming scenarios should account for the dynamic evolution of subglacial drainage; a simple model of basal lubrication alone misses key aspects of the ice sheet's response to climate warming.

Exploring changes in vertical ice extent along the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in western Dronning Maud Land - initial results of the MAGIC-DML collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.; Newall, J. C.; Fredin, O.; Glasser, N. F.; Fabel, D.; Rogozhina, I.; Bernales, J.; Prange, M.; Sams, S.; Eisen, O.; Hättestrand, C.; Harbor, J.; Stroeven, A. P.

2017-12-01

Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there are few empirical data with which to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in numerical modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We will present an overview of the project, as well as field observations and preliminary in situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition.

Dynamic Antarctic ice sheet during the early to mid-Miocene

PubMed Central

DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David; Levy, Richard H.

2016-01-01

Geological data indicate that there were major variations in Antarctic ice sheet volume and extent during the early to mid-Miocene. Simulating such large-scale changes is problematic because of a strong hysteresis effect, which results in stability once the ice sheets have reached continental size. A relatively narrow range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations indicated by proxy records exacerbates this problem. Here, we are able to simulate large-scale variability of the early to mid-Miocene Antarctic ice sheet because of three developments in our modeling approach. (i) We use a climate–ice sheet coupling method utilizing a high-resolution atmospheric component to account for ice sheet–climate feedbacks. (ii) The ice sheet model includes recently proposed mechanisms for retreat into deep subglacial basins caused by ice-cliff failure and ice-shelf hydrofracture. (iii) We account for changes in the oxygen isotopic composition of the ice sheet by using isotope-enabled climate and ice sheet models. We compare our modeling results with ice-proximal records emerging from a sedimentological drill core from the Ross Sea (Andrill-2A) that is presented in a companion article. The variability in Antarctic ice volume that we simulate is equivalent to a seawater oxygen isotope signal of 0.52–0.66‰, or a sea level equivalent change of 30–36 m, for a range of atmospheric CO2 between 280 and 500 ppm and a changing astronomical configuration. This result represents a substantial advance in resolving the long-standing model data conflict of Miocene Antarctic ice sheet and sea level variability. PMID:26903645

How ice age climate got the shakes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1993-05-14

Records in Greenland ice, ocean mud, and ancient corals are revealing abrupt climate shifts during the last ice age. The climate at the end of the last ice age apparently jumped from cold to warmer conditions, jumped back to cold, and then jumped into the present warm weather conditions. The mechanism for this erratic behavior is unknown, but appears to be an interaction of North Atlantic ocean currents and the ice sheets themselves. Warm water from the tropics would evaporate and become more saline and dense as it moved north. The colder, denser water would then sink and flow backmore » to the tropics. The melting of ice caused by the warm water would decrease the salinity of the North Atlantic current, the water would not sink, the return current would be shut down, and the waters surrounding the ice sheets would become colder, slowing melting of the sheets. The cycle could be started again by collapse of the ice sheets from their internal heat. There may be other switches that could cause sudden climate change, as may be evidenced by links between changes in the Pacific and a decade of erratic weather in North America. Researcher would like to identify these switches to prevent them from being activated by human activity.« less

Pleistocene reduction of polar ice caps: Evidence from Cariaco Basin marine sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, R.Z.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise between 13 and 94 cm over the next 100 yr due to continued climate warming. The sea-level projections assume that polar ice sheets will remain stable or even increase on time scales of centuries, but controversial geologic evidence suggests that current polar ice sheets have been eliminated or greatly reduced during previous Pleistocene interglacials indicating that modern polar ice sheets have become unstable within the natural range of interglacial climates. Sea level may have been more than 20 m higher than today during a presumably very warm interglacial about 400 ka during marine isotope stage 11. Because of the implications for future sea level rise, additional study of the conflicting evidence for warmer conditions and higher sea level during marine isotope stage 11 is needed. Here we present microfossil and isotopic data from marine sediments of the Cariaco Basin supporting the interpretation that global sea level was 10-20 m higher than today during marine isotope stage 11. The increased sea level requires reduction in modern polar ice sheets and is consistent with the interpretation that the West Antarctic ice sheet and the Greenland ice sheet were absent or greatly reduced during marine isotope stage 11. Our results show a warm marine isotope stage 11 interglacial climate with sea level as high as or above modern sea level that lasted for 25 to 30 k.y. Variations in Earth's orbit around the sun (Milankovitch cycles) are considered to be a primary external force driving glacial-interglacial cycles. Current and marine isotope stage 11 Milankovitch forcing are very similar, suggesting that the present interglacial (Holocene) that began ca. 10 ka will continue for another 15 to 20 k.y. Therefore any anthropogenic climate warming will accelerate the natural process toward reduction in polar ice sheets. The potential for increased rates of sea level rise related to polar ice sheet decay should be considered as a potential natural hazard on centennial time scales.

Antarctic and Greenland ice sheet mass balance products from satellite gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horwath, Martin; Groh, Andreas; Horvath, Alexander; Forsberg, René; Meister, Rakia; Barletta, Valentina R.; Shepherd, Andrew

2017-04-01

Because of their important role in the Earth's climate system, ESA's Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has identified both the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) as Essential Climate Variables (ECV). Since respondents of a user survey indicated that the ice sheet mass balance is one of the most important ECV data products needed to better understand climate change, the AIS_cci and the GIS_cci project provide Gravimetric Mass Balance (GMB) products based on satellite gravimetry data. The GMB products are derived from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) monthly solutions of release ITSG-Grace2016 produced at TU Graz. GMB basin products (i.e. time series of monthly mass changes for the entire ice sheets and selected drainage basins) and GMB gridded products (e.g. mass balance estimates with a formal resolution of about 50km, covering the entire ice sheets) are generated for the period from 2002 until present. The first GMB product was released in mid 2016. Here we present an extended and updated version of the ESA CCI GMB products, which are freely available through data portals hosted by the projects (https://data1.geo.tu-dresden.de/ais_gmb, http://products.esa-icesheets-cci.org/products/downloadlist/GMB). Since the initial product release, the applied processing strategies have been improved in order to further reduce GRACE errors and to enhance the separation of signals super-imposed to the ice mass changes. While a regional integration approach is used by the AIS_cci project, the GMB products of the GIS_cci project are derived using a point mass inversion. The differences between both approaches are investigated through the example of the GIS, where an alternative GMB product was generated using the regional integration approach implemented by the AIS_cci. Finally, we present the latest mass balance estimates for both ice sheets as well as their corresponding contributions to global sea level rise.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

2011-12-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Improving Climate Literacy Using The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM): A Prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Use In K-12 Classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Perez, G.; Petrie, K.; Nguyen, L.

2013-12-01

Statistics indicate that most Americans learn what they will know about science within the confines of our public K-12 education system and the media. Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) aim to remedy science illiteracy and provide guidelines to exceed the Common Core State Standards that most U.S. state governments have adopted, by integrating disciplinary cores with crosscutting ideas and real life practices. In this vein, we present a prototype ';Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory' (I-Lab), geared to K-12 students, educators and interested members of the general public. I-Lab will allow users to perform experiments using a state-of-the-art dynamical ice sheet model and provide detailed downloadable lesson plans, which incorporate this model and are consistent with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12). The ultimate goal of this website is to improve public climate science literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. The model used will be the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), an ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine, that simulates the near-term evolution of polar ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) and includes high spatial resolution capabilities and data assimilation to produce realistic simulations of ice sheet dynamics at the continental scale. Open sourced since 2011, ISSM is used in cutting edge cryosphere research around the globe. Thru I-Lab, students will be able to access ISSM using a simple, online graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. The interface will allow users to select different climate conditions and watch how the polar ice sheets evolve in time under those conditions. Lesson contents will include links to background material and activities that teach observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and critical problem solving appropriate to grade level.

A Warmer Atmosphere on Mars near the Noachian-Hesperian Boundary: Evidence from Basal Melting of the South Polar Ice Cap (Dorsa Argentea Formation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.; Forget, F.; Madeleine, J.-B.

2012-05-01

Eskers in the Dorsa Argentea Formation imply the presence of an ice sheet with a wet bed. With an ice sheet model, we examine a range of geothermal heat fluxes and warmer climates to determine what conditions could produce such an ice sheet.

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Abrupt Bølling warming and ice saddle collapse contributions to the Meltwater Pulse 1a rapid sea level rise: North American MWP1a Contribution

DOE PAGES

Gregoire, Lauren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Valdes, Paul J.; ...

2016-08-23

Elucidating the source(s) of Meltwater Pulse 1a, the largest rapid sea level rise caused by ice melt (14-18 m in less than 340 years, 14,600 years ago), is important for understanding mechanisms of rapid ice melt and the links with abrupt climate change. Here we quantify how much and by what mechanisms the North American ice sheet could have contributed to Meltwater Pulse 1a, by driving an ice sheet model with two transient climate simulations of the last 21,000 years. Ice sheet perturbed physics ensembles were run to account for model uncertainties, constraining ice extent and volume with reconstructions ofmore » 21,000 years ago to present. We determine that the North American ice sheet produced 3-4 m global mean sea level rise in 340 years due to the abrupt Bølling warming, but this response is amplified to 5-6 m when it triggers the ice sheet saddle collapse.« less

Geological and geomorphological insights into Antarctic ice sheet evolution.

PubMed

Sugden, David E; Bentley, Michael J; O Cofaigh, Colm

2006-07-15

Technical advances in the study of ice-free parts of Antarctica can provide quantitative records that are useful for constraining and refining models of ice sheet evolution and behaviour. Such records improve our understanding of system trajectory, influence the questions we ask about system stability and help to define the ice-sheet processes that are relevant on different time-scales. Here, we illustrate the contribution of cosmogenic isotope analysis of exposed bedrock surfaces and marine geophysical surveying to the understanding of Antarctic ice sheet evolution on a range of time-scales. In the Dry Valleys of East Antarctica, 3He dating of subglacial flood deposits that are now exposed on mountain summits provide evidence of an expanded and thicker Mid-Miocene ice sheet. The survival of surface boulders for approximately 14Myr, the oldest yet measured, demonstrates exceptionally low rates of subsequent erosion and points to the persistence and stability of the dry polar desert climate since that time. Increasingly, there are constraints on West Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations during Quaternary glacial cycles. In the Sarnoff Mountains of Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica, 10Be and 26Al cosmogenic isotope analysis of glacial erratics and bedrock reveal steady thinning of the ice sheet from 10400 years ago to the present, probably as a result of grounding line retreat. In the Antarctic Peninsula, offshore analysis reveals an extensive ice sheet at the last glacial maximum. Based on radiocarbon dating, deglaciation began by 17000cal yr BP and was complete by 9500cal yr BP. Deglaciation of the west and east sides of the Antarctic Peninsula ice sheet occurred at different times and rates, but was largely complete by the Early Holocene. At that time ice shelves were less extensive on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula than they are today. The message from the past is that individual glacier drainage basins in Antarctica respond in different and distinctive ways to global climate change, depending on the link between regional topography and climate setting.

The Svalbard-Barents Sea ice-sheet - Historical, current and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ingólfsson, Ólafur; Landvik, Jon Y.

2013-03-01

The history of research on the Late Quaternary Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet mirrors the developments of ideas and the shifts of paradigms in glacial theory over the past 150 years. Since the onset of scientific research there in the early 19th Century, Svalbard has been a natural laboratory where ideas and concepts have been tested, and played an important (but rarely acknowledged) role in the break-through of the Ice Age theory in the 1870's. The history of how the scientific perception of the Svalbard-Barents sea ice sheet developed in the mid-20th Century also tells a story of how a combination of fairly scattered and often contradictory observational data, and through both deductive and inductive reasoning, could outline a major ice sheet that had left but few tangible fingerprints. Since the 1980's, with increased terrestrial stratigraphical data, ever more marine geological evidence and better chronological control of glacial events, our perception of the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet has changed. The first reconstructions depicted it as a static, concentric, single-domed ice sheet, with ice flowing from an ice divide over the central northern Barents Sea that expanded and declined in response to large-scale, Late Quaternary climate fluctuations, and which was more or less in tune with other major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. We now increasingly perceive it as a very dynamic, multidomed ice sheet, controlled by climate fluctuations, relative sea-level change, as well as subglacial topography, substrate properties and basal temperature. In this respect, the Svalbard-Barents Sea ice sheet will increasingly hold the key for understanding the dynamics and processes of how marine-based ice sheets build-up and decay.

Role of ice sheet dynamics in the collapse of the early-Holocene Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Cornford, S. L.; Ivanovic, R. F.

2017-12-01

The last stage of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) during the early Holocene Thermal Maximum ( 9000 to 7000 years ago) provides an analogy and insight to the possible responses of contemporary ice sheets in a warming climate. What makes LIS particularly interesting is that meltwater from the collapse of an ice saddle over Hudson Bay was recently shown to be the primary forcing for the period of abrupt northern hemisphere cooling known as the 8.2 ka event. The evolution of the LIS during this period was likely influenced by its interaction with marginal lakes and the ocean, and its major ice stream, which exported ice towards Hudson Strait. Accurately simulating the early Holocene LIS evolution thus requires a model such as BISICLES, capable of accurately and efficiently resolving ice stream dynamics and grounding line migration thanks to the combined use of higher order physics and adaptive mesh refinement. We drive the BISICLES model using a positive degree day mass balance scheme with monthly precipitation and temperature from the HadCM3 climate model under climatic conditions from 10,000 to 8,000 years ago. We test the effect of varying the initial topographies and ice thicknesses from different timeslices in the ICE-6Gc reconstruction. We also test different parameterisations for the basal friction based on the thicknesses of the underlying sediments. These simulations evaluate the role of the Hudson Strait ice stream, ice sheet dynamics and interactions with the adjacent proglacial Lake Agassiz and North Atlantic Ocean in the collapse of the LIS. Our results highlight that the choice of parameterisation for basal friction has major effects on ice sheet dynamics and evolution.

Bayesian prediction of future ice sheet volume using local approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, A. D.; Heimbach, P.; Marzouk, Y.

2017-12-01

We develop a Bayesian inverse modeling framework for predicting future ice sheet volume with associated formal uncertainty estimates. Marine ice sheets are drained by fast-flowing ice streams, which we simulate using a flowline model. Flowline models depend on geometric parameters (e.g., basal topography), parameterized physical processes (e.g., calving laws and basal sliding), and climate parameters (e.g., surface mass balance), most of which are unknown or uncertain. Given observations of ice surface velocity and thickness, we define a Bayesian posterior distribution over static parameters, such as basal topography. We also define a parameterized distribution over variable parameters, such as future surface mass balance, which we assume are not informed by the data. Hyperparameters are used to represent climate change scenarios, and sampling their distributions mimics internal variation. For example, a warming climate corresponds to increasing mean surface mass balance but an individual sample may have periods of increasing or decreasing surface mass balance. We characterize the predictive distribution of ice volume by evaluating the flowline model given samples from the posterior distribution and the distribution over variable parameters. Finally, we determine the effect of climate change on future ice sheet volume by investigating how changing the hyperparameters affects the predictive distribution. We use state-of-the-art Bayesian computation to address computational feasibility. Characterizing the posterior distribution (using Markov chain Monte Carlo), sampling the full range of variable parameters and evaluating the predictive model is prohibitively expensive. Furthermore, the required resolution of the inferred basal topography may be very high, which is often challenging for sampling methods. Instead, we leverage regularity in the predictive distribution to build a computationally cheaper surrogate over the low dimensional quantity of interest (future ice sheet volume). Continual surrogate refinement guarantees asymptotic sampling from the predictive distribution. Directly characterizing the predictive distribution in this way allows us to assess the ice sheet's sensitivity to climate variability and change.

Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

2017-04-01

During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

Sediment Volume Record of Paleogene-Neogene Transantarctic Mountains Erosion and Landscape Modification, McMurdo Sound Region, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, T.; Wilson, T. J.; Henrys, S.; Speece, M. A.

2016-12-01

The interplay of tectonics and climate is recorded in the sedimentary strata within Victoria Land Basin, McMurdo Sound, Antarctica. Patterns of Cenozoic sedimentation are documented from interpretation of seismic reflection profiles calibrated by drillhole data in McMurdo Sound, and these patterns provide enhanced constraints on the evolution of the coupled Transantarctic Mountains-West Antarctic Rift System and on ice sheet advance/retreat through multiple climate cycles. The research focuses on shifts from warm based to cold based ice sheets through the variable climate and ice sheet conditions that characterized the early to middle Miocene. The study seeks to test the view that cold based ice sheets in arid, polar deserts minimally erode the landscape by calculating sediment volumes for critical climatic intervals. Revised seismic mapping through McMurdo Sound has been completed, utilizing the seismic stratigraphic framework first established by Fielding et al. (2006) and new reflectors marking unconformities identified from the AND-2A core (Levy et al., 2016). Reflector age constraints are derived by tying surfaces to the Cape Roberts Project, CIROS-1, and AND-2A drillholes. Seismic facies coupled with AND-2A core provenance information provides insight into depositional mechanisms and ice sheet behavior. Seismic facies transitions occur across the major unconformity surfaces in the AND-2A core. Sediment volume calculations for subareas within McMurdo Sound where reflectors are most continuous indicate substantial decreases in preserved sediment volume between the Oligocene and Early Miocene sequences, and between the early and mid-Miocene sequences. Sediment volumes, used in combination with an ice sheet model in a backstacking procedure, provide constraints on landscape modification and further understanding of how landscapes erode under warm and cold based ice sheet regimes.

Issues in subsurface exploration of ice sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, L.; Carsey, F.; Zimmerman, W.

2000-01-01

Exploration of the deep subsurface ice sheets of Earth, Mars, Europa, and Titan has become a major consideration in addressing scientific objectives in climate change, extremophile biology, exobiology,chemical weathering, planetary evolution and ice dynamics.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Reconciliation of Antarctic marine and terrestrial geologic records: climate and ice-sheet variability in the mid-Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halberstadt, A. R. W.; DeConto, R.; Gasson, E.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Levy, R. H.; Naish, T.; Chorley, H.

2017-12-01

The mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum ( 17-15 Ma) serves as a possible analog for future Antarctic conditions, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for the next few decades. During the subsequent mid-Miocene Climatic Transition, the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) developed from a more variable ice sheet to a continental, marine-terminating ice sheet resembling the modern configuration. Near-shore marine records from the Ross Sea (ANDRILL-2A; Levy et al., 2016) imply highly dynamic AIS behavior in the mid-Miocene. Reconstructed environmental conditions during this time period range from full glaciation of the area to a warm interglacial environment. Multiple AIS expansions during the mid-Miocene are interpreted from geophysical evidence including seismic surveys correlated to drill core data (Chow & Bart, 2003). These marine records are seemingly at odds with sedimentary and geomorphic studies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) that suggest the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was mostly invariable since the mid-Miocene (Sugden & Denton, 2004). Well-preserved landforms, observed by Marchant et al. (2013) and others, lack any indication of surface modification from glacial advance or wet cryoturbation, suggesting that hyper-arid cold-desert conditions have persisted in the MDVs since the mid-Miocene. This long-term landform stability in the MDVs implying a stable ice sheet is seemingly inconsistent with the highly dynamic AIS behavior reconstructed by Levy et al. (2016). Here, we use a Regional Climate Model (cf. Gasson et al., 2016) with a range of greenhouse gas concentrations, orbital configurations, ice sheet and shelf geometries, and sea surface conditions to reconcile the apparent dichotomy between marine and terrestrial records. Preliminary results reveal lapse-rate-corrected temperatures in the MDVs that generally remained below freezing in the austral summer, even under the warmest Miocene simulations (840 ppmv atmospheric CO2, `warm' austral summer orbit, and an ice sheet 53% of its modern volume). Model results will be compared with emerging terrestrial data from the Friis Hills in the MDVs, to test the hypothesis that climate in the MDVs remained relatively cold and insensitive to a highly variable West Antarctic Ice Sheet and marine conditions in the proximal Ross Sea.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2011-01-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

The South Circumpolar Dorsa Argentea Formation and the Noachian-Hesperian Climate of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III; Scanlon, K. E.; Fastook, J.; Wordsworth, R. D.

2017-12-01

The Dorsa Argentea Formation (DAF), a set of geomorphologic units covering 1.5 · 106 km2 in the south circumpolar region of Mars with lobes extending along the 0° and 90°W meridians, has been interpreted as the remnants of a large Noachian-Hesperian ice sheet. Determining the extent and thermal regime of the DAF ice sheet, and the controls on its development, can therefore provide insight into the ancient martian climate. We used the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique early Mars global climate model (GCM) and the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM) glacial flow model to constrain climates that would permit both development of a south polar ice sheet of DAF-like size and shape and melting consistent with observed eskers and channels. An asymmetric south polar cold trap is a robust feature of GCM simulations with spin-axis obliquity of 15° or 25° and a 600 - 1000 mb CO2 atmosphere. The shape results from the strong dependence of surface temperature on altitude in a thicker atmosphere. Of the scenarios considered here, the shape and extent of the modeled DAF ice sheet in UMISM simulations most closely match those of the DAF when the surface water ice inventory of Mars is 20 · 106 km3 and obliquity is 15°. In climates warmed only by CO2, basal melting does not occur except when the ice inventory is larger than most estimates for early Mars. In this case, the extent of the ice sheet is also much larger than that of the DAF, and melting is more widespread than observed landforms indicate. When an idealized greenhouse gas warms the surface by at least 20° near the poles relative to CO2 alone, the extent of the ice sheet is less than that of the DAF, but strong basal melting occurs, with maxima in the locations where eskers and channels are observed. We conclude that the glaciofluvial landforms in the DAF implicate warming by a gas other than CO2 alone. Previously published exposure ages of eskers in the DAF indicate that eskers were being exposed as activity was ceasing in the equatorial valley networks, suggesting that the warming that allowed basal melting of the DAF ice sheet was broadly contemporaneous with development of the valley networks. Elevated Tharsis topography is required to produce an ice sheet with the shape of the DAF. Thus, our results are not consistent with the DAF (and the valley networks) forming before Tharsis, as recently suggested.

Late Oligocene to Late Miocene Antarctic Climate Reconstructions Using Molecular and Isotopic Biomarker Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, B.; Mckay, R. M.; Bendle, J. A.; Naish, T.; Levy, R. H.; Ventura, G. T.; Moossen, H. M.; Krishnan, S.; Pagani, M.

2015-12-01

Major climate and environmental changes occurred during late Oligocene to the late Miocene when atmospheric CO2 ranged between 500 and 300ppm, indicating threshold response of Antarctic ice sheets and climate to relatively modest CO2 variations. This implies that the southern high latitudes are highly sensitive to feedbacks associated with changes in global ice sheet and sea-ice extent, as well as terrestrial and marine ecosystems. This study focuses on two key intervals during the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet: (1) The Late Oligocene and the Oligocene/Miocene boundary, when the East Antarctic Ice Sheet expanded close to present day volume following an extended period of inferred warmth. (2) The Mid-Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO ~17-15 Ma), a period of global warmth and moderately elevated CO2 (350->500 ppm) which was subsequently followed by rapid cooling at 14-13.5 Ma. Reconstructions of climate and ice sheet variability, and thus an understanding of the various feedbacks that occurred during these intervals, are hampered by a lack of temperature and hydroclimate proxy data from the southern high latitudes. We present proxy climate reconstructions using terrestrial and marine organic biomarkers that provide new insights into Antarctica's climate evolution, using Antarctic drill cores and outcrop samples from a range of depositional settings. Bacterial ether-lipids have been analysed to determine terrestrial mean annual temperatures and soil pH (via the methylation and cyclisation indexes of branched tetraethers - MBT and CBT, respectively). Tetraether-lipids of crenarchaeota found in marine sediments sampled from continental shelves around Antarctica have been used to derive sea surface temperatures using the TEX86 index. Compound specific stable isotopes on n-alkanes sourced from terrestrial plants have been analysed to investigate changes in the hydrological and carbon cycles.

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2001-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the snow accumulation and the ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken throughout the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores, coupled with the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing, have motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations.

Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergienko, O. V.; Adcroft, A.; Amundson, J. M.; Bassis, J. N.; Hallberg, R.; Pollard, D.; Stearns, L. A.; Stern, A. A.

2016-12-01

Iceberg calving accounts for approximately 50% of the ice mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. By changing a glacier's geometry, calving can also significantly perturb the glacier's stress-regime far upstream of the grounding line. This process can enhance discharge of ice across the grounding line. Once calved, icebergs drift into the open ocean where they melt, injecting freshwater to the ocean and affecting the large-scale ocean circulation. The spatial redistribution of the freshwater flux have strong impact on sea-ice formation and its spatial variability. A Climate Process Team "Representing calving and iceberg dynamics in global climate models" was established in the fall 2014. The major objectives of the CPT are: (1) develop parameterizations of calving processes that are suitable for continental-scale ice-sheet models that simulate the evolution of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets; (2) compile the data sets of the glaciological and oceanographic observations that are necessary to test, validate and constrain the developed parameterizations and models; (3) develop a physically based iceberg component for inclusion in the large-scale ocean circulation model. Several calving parameterizations based suitable for various glaciological settings have been developed and implemented in a continental-scale ice sheet model. Simulations of the present-day Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show that the ice-sheet geometric configurations (thickness and extent) are sensitive to the calving process. In order to guide the development as well as to test calving parameterizations, available observations (of various kinds) have been compiled and organized into a database. Monthly estimates of iceberg distribution around the coast of Greenland have been produced with a goal of constructing iceberg size distribution and probability functions for iceberg occurrence in particular regions. A physically based iceberg model component was used in a GFDL global climate model. The simulation results show that the Antarctic iceberg calving-size distribution affects iceberg trajectories, determines where iceberg meltwater enters the ocean and the increased ice-berg freshwater transport leads to increased sea-ice growth around much of the East Antarctic coastline.

Greenland ice cores tell tales on past sea level changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl-Jensen, D.

2017-12-01

All the deep ice cores drilled to the base of the Greenland ice sheet contain ice from the previous warm climate period, the Eemian 130-115 thousand years before present. This demonstrates the resilience of the Greenland ice sheet to a warming of 5 oC. Studies of basal material further reveal the presence of boreal forest over Greenland before ice covered Greenland. Conditions for Boreal forest implies temperatures at this time has been more than 10 oC warmer than the present. To compare the paleo-behavior of the Greenland ice sheet to the present in relation to sea level rise knowledge gabs include the reaction of ice streams to climate changes. To address this the international EGRIP-project is drilling an ice core in the center of the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS). The first results will be presented.

Ice cores and SeaRISE: What we do (and don't) know

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alley, Richard B.

1991-01-01

Ice core analyses are needed in SeaRISE to learn what the West Antarctic ice sheet and other marine ice sheets were like in the past, what climate changes led to their present states, and how they behave. The major results of interest to SeaRISE from previous ice core analyses in West Antarctic are that the end of the last ice age caused temperature and accumulation rate increases in inland regions, leading to ice sheet thickening followed by thinning to the present.

The Antarctic Ice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radok, Uwe

1985-01-01

The International Antarctic Glaciological Project has collected information on the East Antarctic ice sheet since 1969. Analysis of ice cores revealed climatic history, and radar soundings helped map bedrock of the continent. Computer models of the ice sheet and its changes over time will aid in predicting the future. (DH)

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

Constraining the Antarctic contribution to global sea-level change: ANDRILL and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, Timothy

2016-04-01

Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1 to 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the scientific challenges, some potential sub-glacial sedimentary targets, and a strategy for future drilling of sub-glacial sedimentary basins.

Constraining the Antarctic contribution to interglacial sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naish, T.; Mckay, R. M.; Barrett, P. J.; Levy, R. H.; Golledge, N. R.; Deconto, R. M.; Horgan, H. J.; Dunbar, G. B.

2015-12-01

Observations, models and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that Antarctica's marine-based ice sheets behave in an unstable manner with episodes of rapid retreat in response to warming climate. Understanding the processes involved in this "marine ice sheet instability" is key for improving estimates of Antarctic ice sheet contribution to future sea-level rise. Another motivating factor is that far-field sea-level reconstructions and ice sheet models imply global mean sea level (GMSL) was up to 20m and 10m higher, respectively, compared with present day, during the interglacials of the warm Pliocene (~4-3Ma) and Late Pleistocene (at ~400ka and 125ka). This was when atmospheric CO2 was between 280 and 400ppm and global average surface temperatures were 1- 3°C warmer, suggesting polar ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively modest increases in climate forcing. Such magnitudes of GMSL rise not only require near complete melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but a substantial retreat of marine-based sectors of East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent geological drilling initiatives on the continental margin of Antarctica from both ship- (e.g. IODP; International Ocean Discovery Program) and ice-based (e.g. ANDRILL/Antarctic Geological Drilling) platforms have provided evidence supporting retreat of marine-based ice. However, without direct access through the ice sheet to archives preserved within sub-glacial sedimentary basins, the volume and extent of ice sheet retreat during past interglacials cannot be directly constrained. Sediment cores have been successfully recovered from beneath ice shelves by the ANDRILL Program and ice streams by the WISSARD (Whillans Ice Stream Sub-glacial Access Research Drilling) Project. Together with the potential of the new RAID (Rapid Access Ice Drill) initiative, these demonstrate the technological feasibility of accessing the subglacial bed and deeper sedimentary archives. In this talk I will outline the scientific challenges, some potential sub-glacial sedimentary targets, and a strategy for future drilling of sub-glacial sedimentary basins.

Heinrich-type glacial surges in a low-order dynamical climate model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Verbitsky, M.; Saltzman, B.

1994-07-01

Recent studies suggest the occurrence of sporadic episodes during which the ice streams that discharge ice sheets become enormously active, producing large numbers of icebergs (reflected in North Atlantic sea cores as {open_quotes}Heinrich events{close_quotes}) and possibly causing the partial collapse of the ice sheets. To simulate the mechanism of implied internal thermo-hydrodynamical instability in the context of a more general paleoclimate dynamics model (PDM), a new sliding-catastrophe function that can account for ice-sheet surges in terms of the thickness, density, viscosity, heat-capacity. and heat-conductivity of ice is introduced. Analysis suggests these events might be of three possible kinds: the firstmore » occurs in periods of glacial maximum when temperature conditions on the ice surface are extremely cold, but internal friction within bottom boundary layer is also at its maximum and is strong enough to melt ice and cause its surge. The second may happen during an interglacial, when the ice thickness is small but relatively warm climate conditions on the upper surface of ice can be easily advected with the flow of ice to the bottom where even a small additional heating due to friction may cause melting. The third and, perhaps, most interesting type is one that may occur during ice sheet growth: in this period particles of ice reaching the bottom {open_quotes}remember{close_quotes} the warm temperature conditions of the previous interglacial and additional heating due to increasing friction associated with the growing ice sheet may again cause melting. This third introduces the interesting possibility that earlier CO{sub 2} concentrations may be as important for the present-day climate as its current value. According to our model the climate system seems more vulnerable to surges during the penultimate interglacial period than in present one contributing to an explanation of the recent results of the Greenland Ice Core Project. 18 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.« less

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

1988-01-01

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet during Pliocene warmth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Carys P.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Iwai, Masao; Kobayashi, Munemasa; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Escutia, Carlota; González, Jhon Jairo; Khim, Boo-Keun; McKay, Robert M.; Passchier, Sandra; Bohaty, Steven M.; Riesselman, Christina R.; Tauxe, Lisa; Sugisaki, Saiko; Galindo, Alberto Lopez; Patterson, Molly O.; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Pierce, Elizabeth L.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, José Abel; Hayden, Travis G.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash K.; Stickley, Catherine E.; Tuo, Shouting; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-09-01

Warm intervals within the Pliocene epoch (5.33-2.58 million years ago) were characterized by global temperatures comparable to those predicted for the end of this century and atmospheric CO2 concentrations similar to today. Estimates for global sea level highstands during these times imply possible retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet, but ice-proximal evidence from the Antarctic margin is scarce. Here we present new data from Pliocene marine sediments recovered offshore of Adélie Land, East Antarctica, that reveal dynamic behaviour of the East Antarctic ice sheet in the vicinity of the low-lying Wilkes Subglacial Basin during times of past climatic warmth. Sedimentary sequences deposited between 5.3 and 3.3 million years ago indicate increases in Southern Ocean surface water productivity, associated with elevated circum-Antarctic temperatures. The geochemical provenance of detrital material deposited during these warm intervals suggests active erosion of continental bedrock from within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin, an area today buried beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet. We interpret this erosion to be associated with retreat of the ice sheet margin several hundreds of kilometres inland and conclude that the East Antarctic ice sheet was sensitive to climatic warmth during the Pliocene.

Simulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Bartlein, P.J.; Clark, P.U.; Small, E.E.; Solomon, A.M.

2000-01-01

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold even.

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Calov, R.; Ganopolski, A.

2011-12-01

The Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (PPT, ca. 3.3-2.4 Ma BP) marks a shift in the Earth's climate and is believed to coincide with the inception of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets. This transition is not only characterized by a gradual reduction in atmospheric CO2 concentration, paleo records also show a strengthening in the amplitude of δ18O data and intensified ice rafted debris deposition in the North Atlantic. Previous modeling studies have demonstrated that the drop in atmospheric CO2 plays an important role in the glaciation of the NH ice sheets, and more specifically, it is considered to be the primary cause of the glaciation of Greenland. Here we apply a novel approach to produce transient simulations of the entire PPT, in order to study the glaciation of Greenland and the NH ice sheets and additionally, to investigate which conditions are necessary for full-scale glaciation. The fully-coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 is used to explore the effects of a suite of orbital and CO2 forcing scenarios on total NH glaciation. CLIMBER-2 includes low-resolution sub-models of the atmosphere, vegetation, ocean and ice sheets - the latter is designed to simulate the big NH ice sheets with a rather low resolution (and high computational efficiency). As a refinement, the results of the global simulations are then used to force regional simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) using the higher resolution (20 km) regional climate-ice sheet model, REMBO-SICOPOLIS. We present results of transient simulations driven by orbital forcing and several CO2 reduction scenarios that are consistent with best estimates from data for this time period. We discuss the growth and persistence of the NH ice sheets in terms of the forcing and feedbacks involved. Additionally, we present a set of simulations with the growth of the NH ice sheets disabled, in order to quantify the effect the large ice sheets have on global and regional temperature anomalies. By simulating the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in our high resolution coupled global-regional approach, we identify with greater precision, the conditions neccesary for inception of the GIS and link these to global climatic changes.

The Dorsa Argentea Formation and the Noachian-Hesperian climate transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scanlon, K. E.; Head, J. W.; Fastook, J. L.; Wordsworth, R. D.

2018-01-01

The Dorsa Argentea Formation (DAF), a set of geomorphologic units covering ∼1.5 million square kilometers in the south circumpolar region of Mars, has been interpreted as the remnants of a large south polar ice sheet that formed near the Noachian-Hesperian boundary and receded in the early Hesperian. Determining the extent and thermal regime of the DAF ice sheet, as well as the mechanism and timing of its recession, can therefore provide insight into the ancient martian climate and the timing of the transition from a presumably thicker CO2 atmosphere to the present climate. We used the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) early Mars global climate model (GCM) and the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM) glacial flow model to constrain climates allowing development of a south polar ice sheet of DAF-like size and shape. In addition, we modeled basal melting of this ice sheet in amounts and locations consistent with observed glaciofluvial landforms. A large, asymmetric region of ice stability surrounding the south pole is a robust feature of GCM simulations with spin-axis obliquity of 15° or 25° and a 600-1000 mb CO2 atmosphere. The shape results from the large-scale south polar topography of Mars and the strong dependence of surface temperature on altitude under a thicker atmosphere. Of the scenarios considered in this study, the extent of the modeled DAF ice sheet in UMISM simulations most closely matches that of the DAF when the surface water ice inventory of Mars is a ∼137 m global equivalent layer (GEL) and spin-axis obliquity is 15°. In climates warmed only by CO2, significant basal melting does not occur except when the ice inventory is larger than plausible estimates for early Mars. In this case, the extent of the south polar ice sheet is also much larger than that of the DAF, and basal melting is more widespread than observed landforms indicate. When an idealized greenhouse gas warms the surface by at least 20°C near the poles relative to CO2 alone, the stable extent of the ice sheet is less than that of the DAF units, but widespread basal melting occurs, with maxima in the locations where eskers are currently observed. We therefore conclude that warming by a gas other than CO2 alone was necessary to enable the construction of glaciofluvial landforms in the DAF. Previously published crater exposure ages of eskers in the DAF indicate that eskers were being exposed as activity was ceasing in the equatorial valley networks, suggesting that the warming that allowed basal melting at the edges of the DAF ice sheet were broadly contemporaneous with those in which the valley networks were carved. Finally, elevated Tharsis topography is required to produce an ice sheet with the shape of the DAF. Thus, our results are not consistent with the DAF (and the valley networks) forming before the emplacement of Tharsis, as recently suggested.

A view from the terrace; ice-sheet dynamics during the Eocene Oligocene Transition climate tipping point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scher, Howie; Bohaty, Steven; Huck, Claire

2017-04-01

Glaciation of Antarctica was the pièce de résistance of the shift in global climate that took place during the Eocene Oligocene Transition (EOT; ca. 34 Ma). The timing and progression of ice-sheet development is constrained by benthic foraminiferal d18O records and geochemical proxies for continental weathering from deep-sea sediment cores. The terrace interval is the roughly 500 kyr interval after the precursor glaciation at 34.2 Ma, when ice-sheet expansion reached a short-lived plateau prior to the coalescence of a continent-scale ice sheet at 33.7 Ma. The terrace interval appears to be the tipping point between greenhouse and icehouse climate states, however ice-sheet dynamics are poorly understood during this crucial time. We present evidence for rapid changes in the Nd isotopic composition of bottom waters bathing a sediment core on Maud Rise (ODP Site 689) during the terrace interval of the EOT. Three distinct excursions toward less radiogenic eNd values suggest either 1) changes in the flux of Antarctic weathering products into the Weddell Sea and/or 2) pulses of deep water production that brought shelf waters with the Antarctic Nd isotope fingerprint into contact with Maud Rise. Both interpretations support a scenario of expansion and contraction of the Antarctic ice sheet during the terrace interval.

Marine Isotope Stage 11 : The Role of Co2, Insolation and Antarctica Ice Sheet On This Interglacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raynaud, D.; Loutre, M. F.; Ritz, C.; Barnola, J.-M.; Berger, A.; Chappellaz, J.; Jouzel, J.; Lipenkov, V.; Petit, J.-R.; Vimeux, F.

The Marine Isotopic Stage 11 (MIS 11), around 400kyr BP ago, has been suggested as an analogue for a future climate under natural forcing because of the similar condi- tions of orbitally driven insolation during this interglacial period and the one covering the Holocene and the near future. There are many open questions about unusual MIS 11 climatic conditions (length of the interglacial, temperature, sea level, marine car- bonate system), as recorded in different marine and continental records. The Antarctic Vostok ice core provides the only atmospheric record extending back to MIS 11 and we use it to discuss the Antarctic temperature, the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the ice sheet stability in the central part of East Antarctica during this interglacial. The unique nature of the Vostok atmospheric record leads us to use the available Vos- tok data to drive climate and ice sheet models for MIS 11. A model of intermediate complexity (LLN-2D model) is used to investigate the sensitivity of the simulated MIS 11 deglaciation to the interplay between insolation and CO2. It is shown that the length of the simulated interglacial depends strongly on the phasing between these two climate forcings. We also investigate the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to changing climate through simulations performed with the LGGE 3-D ice sheet model. The results indicate that sea level stands during MIS 11 as high as 20 m. above present level, as suggested by different elevated marine terraces, cannot be explained, except by assuming that MIS 11 was very dry over Antarctica.

The Impact of Geothermal Heat on the Scandinavian Ice Sheet's LGM Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szuman, Izabela; Ewertowski, Marek W.; Kalita, Jakub Z.

2016-04-01

The last Scandinavian ice sheet attained its most southern extent over Poland and Germany, protruding c. 200 km south of the main ice sheet mass. There are number of factors that may control ice sheet dynamics and extent. One of the less recognised is geothermal heat, which is heat that is supplied to the base of the ice sheet. A heat at the ice/bed interface plays a crucial role in controlling ice sheet stability, as well as impacting basal temperatures, melting, and ice flow velocities. However, the influence of geothermal heat is still virtually neglected in reconstructions and modelling of paleo-ice sheets behaviour. Only in a few papers is geothermal heat recalled though often in the context of past climatic conditions. Thus, the major question is if and how spatial differences in geothermal heat had influenced paleo-ice sheet dynamics and in consequence their extent. Here, we assumed that the configuration of the ice sheet along its southern margin was moderately to strongly correlated with geothermal heat for Poland and non or negatively correlated for Germany.

Laurentide ice-sheet instability during the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullman, David J.; Carlson, Anders E.; Anslow, Faron S.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Licciardi, Joseph M.

2015-07-01

Changes in the amount of summer incoming solar radiation (insolation) reaching the Northern Hemisphere are the underlying pacemaker of glacial cycles. However, not all rises in boreal summer insolation over the past 800,000 years resulted in deglaciation to present-day ice volumes, suggesting that there may be a climatic threshold for the disappearance of land-based ice. Here we assess the surface mass balance stability of the Laurentide ice sheet--the largest glacial ice mass in the Northern Hemisphere--during the last deglaciation (24,000 to 9,000 years ago). We run a surface energy balance model with climate data from simulations with a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model for key time slices during the last deglaciation. We find that the surface mass balance of the Laurentide ice sheet was positive throughout much of the deglaciation, and suggest that dynamic discharge was mainly responsible for mass loss during this time. Total surface mass balance became negative only in the early Holocene, indicating the transition to a new state where ice loss occurred primarily by surface ablation. We conclude that the Laurentide ice sheet remained a viable ice sheet before the Holocene and began to fully deglaciate only once summer temperatures and radiative forcing over the ice sheet increased by 6-7 °C and 16-20 W m-2, respectively, relative to full glacial conditions.

The abandoned ice sheet base at Camp Century, Greenland, in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colgan, William; Machguth, Horst; MacFerrin, Mike; Colgan, Jeff D.; As, Dirk; MacGregor, Joseph A.

2016-08-01

In 1959 the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built Camp Century beneath the surface of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet. There they studied the feasibility of deploying ballistic missiles within the ice sheet. The base and its wastes were abandoned with minimal decommissioning in 1967, under the assumption they would be preserved for eternity by perpetually accumulating snowfall. Here we show that a transition in ice sheet surface mass balance at Camp Century from net accumulation to net ablation is plausible within the next 75 years, under a business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Net ablation would guarantee the eventual remobilization of physical, chemical, biological, and radiological wastes abandoned at the site. While Camp Century and four other contemporaneous ice sheet bases were legally established under a Danish-U.S. treaty, the potential remobilization of their abandoned wastes, previously regarded as sequestered, represents an entirely new pathway of political dispute resulting from climate change.

The Abandoned Ice Sheet Base at Camp Century, Greenland, in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colgan, William; Machguth, Horst; Macferrin, Mike; Colgan, Jeff D.; Van As, Dirk; Macgregor, Joseph A.

2016-01-01

In 1959 the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built Camp Century beneath the surface of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet. There they studied the feasibility of deploying ballistic missiles within the ice sheet. The base and its wastes were abandoned with minimal decommissioning in 1967, under the assumption they would be preserved for eternity by perpetually accumulating snowfall. Here we show that a transition in ice sheet surface mass balance at Camp Century from net accumulation to net ablation is plausible within the next 75years, under a business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). Net ablation would guarantee the eventual remobilization of physical, chemical, biological, and radiological wastes abandoned at the site. While Camp Century and four other contemporaneous ice sheet bases were legally established under a Danish-U.S. treaty, the potential remobilization of their abandoned wastes, previously regarded as sequestered, represents an entirely new pathway of political dispute resulting from climate change.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss.

PubMed

Notz, Dirk

2009-12-08

We discuss the existence of cryospheric "tipping points" in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice-albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasson, E.; Lunt, D. J.; DeConto, R.; Goldner, A.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Pollard, D.; Sagoo, N.; Siddall, M.;

How Will Sea Ice Loss Affect the Greenland Ice Sheet? On the Puzzling Features of Greenland Ice-Core Isotopic Composition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Legrande, Allegra N.; Roberts, William H. G.

2016-01-01

The modern cryosphere, Earth's frozen water regime, is in fast transition. Greenland ice cores show how fast theses changes can be, presenting evidence of up to 15 C warming events over timescales of less than a decade. These events, called Dansgaard/Oeschger (D/O) events, are believed to be associated with rapid changes in Arctic sea ice, although the underlying mechanisms are still unclear. The modern demise of Arctic sea ice may, in turn, instigate abrupt changes on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Arctic Sea Ice and Greenland Ice Sheet Sensitivity (Ice2Ice Chttps://ice2ice.b.uib.noD) initiative, sponsored by the European Research Council, seeks to quantify these past rapid changes to improve our understanding of what the future may hold for the Arctic. Twenty scientists gathered in Copenhagen as part of this initiative to discuss the most recent observational, technological, and model developments toward quantifying the mechanisms behind past climate changes in Greenland. Much of the discussion focused on the causes behind the changes in stable water isotopes recorded in ice cores. The participants discussed sources of variability for stable water isotopes and framed ways that new studies could improve understanding of modern climate. The participants also discussed how climate models could provide insights into the relative roles of local and nonlocal processes in affecting stable water isotopes within the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presentations of modeling results showed how a change in the source or seasonality of precipitation could occur not only between glacial and modern climates but also between abrupt events. Recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. Further, indications from recent fieldwork campaigns illustrate an important role of stable isotopes in atmospheric vapor and diffusion in the final stable isotope signal in ice. This feature complicates the quantitative interpretation of ice core signals but also makes the stable ice isotope signal a more robust regional indicator of climate, speakers noted. Meeting participants agreed that to further our understanding of these relationships, we need more process-focused field and laboratory campaigns.

Modelled Growth and Decay of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet Through the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, S. J.; Banwell, A.

2015-12-01

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet in western North America had an enigmatic evolution during the last glacial cycle, developing out of sync with the larger Laurentide and global glaciation. The geological record suggests that the ice sheet emerged late, ca. 45 ka, growing to be a fully-established ice sheet in isotope stages 3 and 2 and deglaciating late in the glacial cycle. This has been a challenge to model, and is a paleoclimatic curiosity, because the western Cordillera of North America is heavily glacierized today, and one would intuitively expect it to act as an inception centre for the Pleistocene ice sheets. The region receives heavy precipitation, and modest cooling should induce large-scale glacier expansion. Indeed, a Cordilleran Ice Sheet quickly nucleates in isotope substage 5d in most ice sheet modeling studies to date, and is a resilient feature throughout the glaciation. The fact that a full-scale Cordilleran Ice Sheet did not develop until relatively late argues for either: (a) ice sheet models that have been inadequate in resolving the process of alpine-style glaciation, i.e., the coalescence of alpine icefields, or (b) a climatic history in western North America that deviated strongly from the hemispheric-scale cooling which drove the growth of the Laurentide and Scandinavian Ice Sheets, as recorded in Greenland. We argue that reasonable reconstructions of Cordilleran Ice Sheet growth and decay implicate a combination of these two considerations. Sufficient model resolution is required to capture the valley-bottom melt that suppresses icefield coalescence, while early-glacial cooling must have been modest in the Pacific sector of North America. We argue for a persistent warm, dry climate relative to that in eastern North America and the Atlantic sector, likely associated with positive feedbacks between atmospheric circulation and the nascent Laurentide Ice Sheet (i.e., peristent circulation patterns similar to those of 2014-2015). This must have been disrupted as the Laurentide thickened and advanced southward, allowing the Cordilleran Ice Sheet to emerge from numerous isolated icefield complexes.

Antarctic glaciations under Pliocene climate conditions from numerical modeling and compilation of local field-based reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernales, Jorge; Rogozhina, Irina; Greve, Ralf

2014-05-01

The mid-Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million years before present) is the most recent period in Earth's history when temperatures and CO2 concentrations were likely sustainedly higher than pre-industrial values. Furthermore, the positions of the continents and their sea-land distributions had already reached their present configuration, sharing some similarities with today's patterns of ocean circulation and vegetation distributions. Although significant differences exist -such as a peak sea level that could have been 22 ± 10 m higher than it is today and sea surface temperatures particularly warmer at higher latitudes, mid-Pliocene has been identified as an ideal interval for studying the climate system under conditions similar to those projected for the end of this century. Among the sources of uncertainty in the projections, the response of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) to warmer-than-today conditions seems to play a central role. Therefore, a better understanding of AIS's behavior during periods like the mid-Pliocene will provide valuable information that could help improve future predictions. For this purpose, we have compiled a wide range of local field-based reconstructions of the ice-sheet margin from Pliocene sediments (with the inclusions of organic matters such as, for instance, diatoms or palynoflora, or ice rafted debris), geochemical records, volcanic ashes and rocks, and geomorphology, and designed numerical experiments of the AIS dynamics during the mid-Pliocene warm period using the large-scale polythermal ice sheet-shelf model SICOPOLIS (Greve, 1997 [1]; Sato and Greve, 2012 [2]). The model is run with a horizontal resolution of 40 × 40 km by the climatology obtained from the PlioMIP Atmosphere Ocean Global Circulation Model experiments (Dolan et al., 2012 [3]). Parameters of the AIS model (e.g. ice calving, sub-ice shelf and surface ice melt, basal sliding, etc.) have initially been estimated using ice-sheet simulations driven by the present-day climate and ocean conditions and calibrated against available remote-sensed and in-situ observations. In our Pliocene experiments, we employ alternative parameterizations of sub-ice shelf and ice surface melting processes to test the likelihood of numerous controversial theories and reconstructions arguing for or against significant retreat of the East Antarctic ice sheet from the coasts (locally up to 450 km) in the mid-Pliocene. Finally, we assess the sensitivity of the modeled West Antarctic/Antarctic Peninsula ice geometry to the above parameters and emphasize a crucial role of surface mass balance model parameters in modeling the Pliocene ice sheet configuration in agreement with existing reconstructions on a regional scale. References [1] Greve, R. (1997). Application of a polythermal three-dimensional ice sheet model to the Greenland ice sheet: response to steady-state and transient climate scenarios. Journal of Climate, 10(5), 901-918. [2] Sato, T., and Greve, R. (2012). Sensitivity experiments for the Antarctic ice sheet with varied sub-ice-shelf melting rates. Annals of Glaciology, 53(60), 221-228. [3] Dolan, A. M., Koenig, S. J., Hill, D. J., Haywood, A. M., and DeConto, R. M. (2012). Pliocene Ice Sheet Modelling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP)-experimental design. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(4), 963-974.

Outreach/education interface for Cryosphere models using the Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larour, E. Y.; Halkides, D. J.; Romero, V.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.

2014-12-01

In the past decade, great strides have been made in the development of models capable of projecting the future evolution of glaciers and the polar ice sheets in a changing climate. These models are now capable of replicating some of the trends apparent in satellite observations. However, because this field is just now maturing, very few efforts have been dedicated to adapting these capabilities to education. Technologies that have been used in outreach efforts in Atmospheric and Oceanic sciences still have not been extended to Cryospheric Science. We present a cutting-edge, technologically driven virtual laboratory, geared towards outreach and k-12 education, dedicated to the polar ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, and their role as major contributors to sea level rise in coming decades. VISL (Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory) relies on state-of-the art Web GL rendering of polar ice sheets, Android/iPhone and web portability using Javascript, as well as C++ simulations (back-end) based on the Ice Sheet System Model, the NASA model for simulating the evolution of polar ice sheets. Using VISL, educators and students can have an immersive experience into the world of polar ice sheets, while at the same exercising the capabilities of a state-of-the-art climate model, all of it embedded into an education experience that follows the new STEM standards for education.This work was performed at the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere Science Program.

The future of ice sheets and sea ice: Between reversible retreat and unstoppable loss

PubMed Central

Notz, Dirk

2009-01-01

We discuss the existence of cryospheric “tipping points” in the Earth's climate system. Such critical thresholds have been suggested to exist for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice and the retreat of ice sheets: Once these ice masses have shrunk below an anticipated critical extent, the ice–albedo feedback might lead to the irreversible and unstoppable loss of the remaining ice. We here give an overview of our current understanding of such threshold behavior. By using conceptual arguments, we review the recent findings that such a tipping point probably does not exist for the loss of Arctic summer sea ice. Hence, in a cooler climate, sea ice could recover rapidly from the loss it has experienced in recent years. In addition, we discuss why this recent rapid retreat of Arctic summer sea ice might largely be a consequence of a slow shift in ice-thickness distribution, which will lead to strongly increased year-to-year variability of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent. This variability will render seasonal forecasts of the Arctic summer sea-ice extent increasingly difficult. We also discuss why, in contrast to Arctic summer sea ice, a tipping point is more likely to exist for the loss of the Greenland ice sheet and the West Antarctic ice sheet. PMID:19884496

NASA: First Map Of Thawed Areas Under Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA researchers have helped produce the first map showing what parts of the bottom of the massive Greenland Ice Sheet are thawed – key information in better predicting how the ice sheet will react to a warming climate. Greenland’s thick ice sheet insulates the bedrock below from the cold temperatures at the surface, so the bottom of the ice is often tens of degrees warmer than at the top, because the ice bottom is slowly warmed by heat coming from the Earth’s depths. Knowing whether Greenland’s ice lies on wet, slippery ground or is anchored to dry, frozen bedrock is essential for predicting how this ice will flow in the future, But scientists have very few direct observations of the thermal conditions beneath the ice sheet, obtained through fewer than two dozen boreholes that have reached the bottom. Now, a new study synthesizes several methods to infer the Greenland Ice Sheet’s basal thermal state –whether the bottom of the ice is melted or not– leading to the first map that identifies frozen and thawed areas across the whole ice sheet. Map caption: This first-of-a-kind map, showing which parts of the bottom of the Greenland Ice Sheet are likely thawed (red), frozen (blue) or still uncertain (gray), will help scientists better predict how the ice will flow in a warming climate. Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/Jesse Allen Read more: go.nasa.gov/2avKgl2 NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Glacial changes in warm pool climate dominated by shelf exposure and ice sheet albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Bhattacharya, T.; Brady, E. C.; Rosenbloom, N. A.

2017-12-01

The mechanisms driving glacial-interglacial changes in the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) are unclear. We addressed this issue combining model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Two drivers - the exposure of tropical shelves due to lower sea level and a monsoonal response to ice sheet albedo - explain the proxy-inferred patterns of hydroclimate change. Shelf exposure influences IPWP climate by weakening the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This response is amplified by coupled interactions akin to the Bjerknes feedback involving a stronger sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equatorial Indian Ocean (IO). Ice sheet albedo enhances the import of cold, dry air into the tropics, weakening the Afro-Asian monsoon system. This "ventilation" mechanism alters temperature contrasts between the Arabian Sea and surrounding land leading to further monsoon weakening. Additional simulations show that the altered SST patterns associated with these responses are essential for explaining the proxy-inferred changes. Together our results show that ice sheets are a first order driver of tropical climate on glacial-interglacial timescales. While glacial climates are not a straightforward analogue for the future, our finding of an active Bjerknes feedback deserves further attention in the context of future climate projections.

Enabling Climate Science Investigations by Students Using Cryosphere Climate Data Records (CDRs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Youngman, B.; Meier, W.; Bardar, E.

2010-12-01

The polar regions are particularly sensitive to changes in the climate system, and as such changes can be recognized there first. Scientists make use of this to help them develop and execute research programs that will deepen and expand our understanding of the climate system. However, the same cryosphere CDRs collected by scientists are a useful and reliable resource for helping students investigate and discover the manifestations and implications of global climate change. We have developed a number of avenues to facilitate the use of cryosphere CDRs in educational contexts. These include the Earth Exploration Toolbook (EET, http://serc.carleton.edu/eet), DataSheets (http://serc.carleton.edu/usingdata/browse_sheets.html), and Cryosphere-EarthLabs (http://serc.carleton.edu/dev/earthlabs/cryosphere). The EET is an online resource comprised of “chapters”, each of which focuses on a specific Earth science dataset and data analysis tool. Chapters provide step-by-step instructions for accessing the dataset and analysis tool, putting the data into the tool, and conducting an analysis around a specific scientific concept or issue. There are a number of EET chapters that utilize cryosphere CDRs. The EET chapter “Whither Arctic Sea Ice?” uses ~30 years of Arctic sea ice extent images and image processing software to study changes in sea ice extent. “Is Greenland Melting?” uses ice thickness data, ice melting extents and weather station data to examine the changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet. Other EET chapters that utilize cryosphere CDRs include “Using NASA NEO and ImageJ to Explore the Role of Snow Cover in Shaping Climate” and “Envisioning Climate Change Using a Global Climate Model.” In addition to creating these activities to facilitate the use of cryosphere CDRs we have also created DataSheets for these CDRs. DataSheets are educationally relevant human readable metadata about a dataset that provide both the scientific background information about the dataset as well as the topics and skills that can be taught using the dataset. DataSheets enable an educator to make effective use of a dataset outside the context of an educational activity. A DataSheet created for the sea ice index used in the “Whither Arctic Sea Ice? EET chapter is “Exploring Sea Ice Data From Satellites.” An EarthLabs module is a suite of 7-9 labs intended to be the laboratory component of a high-school capstone Earth and Space Science course. The Cryosphere-EarthLabs module focuses on sea ice to help students deepen their understanding of change over time in the climate system on multiple and embedded time scales. The module contains hands-on activities and investigations using online cryosphere CDRs to help students understand the how sea ice forms and varies, how the cryosphere changes, and the causes of those changes on time scales ranging from the seasonal to ice age time scales. In this presentation we will examine the EET and EarthLabs resources that help educators and students explore climate change using cryosphere CDRs; examine the DataSheets for these datasets; and describe how your cryosphere CDRs can be made available through these resources.

a Study of the Impact of Doubling Carbon Dioxide and Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate System.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Shaoping

The exchange of moisture and heat between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface fundamentally affect the dynamics and thermodynamics of the climate system. In order to trace moisture flow through the climate system and examine its impact on climate, a hydrologic cycle and a land energy balance have been developed and incorporated into a coupled climate-thermodynamic sea ice (CCSI) model. The expanded CCSI model has been tested by comparing computed climate parameters with available observations and GCM modeling results. In general, the expanded model does a good job in simulating the large scale features of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in both space and time. The expanded model has been used to examine the possibility that increased levels of CO_2 in the atmosphere may induce the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Results of the study indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions CO_2 induced warming, mainly the result of decreased summer ice melt in response to the higher land ice albedo, and not an increase in precipitation. The expanded model has also been used to examine the impact of Milankovitch solar radiation variations on the climate system, to study the mechanisms that produce glacial-interglacial cycles, especially with respect to the initiation of ice sheets. The results show the Milankovitch solar radiation variations affect the climate system most in the polar regions with the mean annual surface air temperature varying directly in response to changes in the annually averaged incoming solar radiation. However, the seasonal variations in the surface air temperatures are much more complex with large magnitude variations for brief times during the year. The study indicates that ice sheets may start to grow under the conditions of low insolation that occurred at 25, 70, and 115 kyr BP and a land ice minimum albedo of 0.53, with the largest growth rate at 115 kyr BP, approximately when the current 100 kyr cycle began as observed in the geological record.

Isostasy as a Driver of Paleo Retreat of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, A.; Tabone, I.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

2016-12-01

During glacial times, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) extended onto the continental shelf, and thus was much more directly affected by changing ocean temperatures through basal melt of the marine ice margins than it is today. The larger glacial ice sheet also induced lithospheric depression of several hundred meters in regions that are near sea level today. As the ice sheet retreated inland under interglacial climatic forcing, the regions significantly affected by local isostatic changes in elevation were exposed to much higher basal melt rates than they would have been given the present-day topography. Here we explore this effect using a hybrid ice sheet model that represents both grounded and floating ice, as well as local isostatic effects, and is driven by both atmospheric and oceanic temperature anomalies. We find that when transient oceanic forcing is included in the model, isostasy plays an important role in allowing oceanic melting to drive GrIS retreat in some regions. During the last interglacial, for example, this effect can account for a significant additional sea-level contribution, as well as an increase in the rate of sea-level rise. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for ice-ocean-lithosphere interactions in the past, in order to be able to properly reconstruct the evolution of the ice sheet, and for estimating its sensitivity to potential changes in climate in the future.

Using the glacial geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams to understand mechanisms of ice sheet collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Margold, Martin; Clark, Chris; Tarasov, Lev

2017-04-01

Processes which bring about ice sheet deglaciation are critical to our understanding of glacial-interglacial cycles and ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. The precise mechanisms of deglaciation are also relevant to our understanding of modern-day ice sheet stability and concerns over global sea level rise. Mass loss from ice sheets can be broadly partitioned between melting and a 'dynamic' component whereby rapidly-flowing ice streams/outlet glaciers transfer ice from the interior to the oceans. Surface and basal melting (e.g. of ice shelves) are closely linked to atmospheric and oceanic conditions, but the mechanisms that drive dynamic changes in ice stream discharge are more complex, which generates much larger uncertainties about their future contribution to ice sheet mass loss and sea level rise. A major problem is that observations of modern-day ice streams typically span just a few decades and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves during deglaciation. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. To address this issue, numerous workers have sought to understand ice stream dynamics over longer time-scales using their glacial geomorphology in the palaeo-record. Indeed, our understanding of their geomorphology has grown rapidly in the last three decades, from almost complete ignorance to a detailed knowledge of their geomorphological products. Building on this body of work, this paper uses the glacial geomorphology of 117 ice streams in the North American Laurentide Ice Sheet to reconstruct their activity during its deglaciation ( 22,000 to 7,000 years ago). Ice stream activity was characterised by high variability in both time and space, with ice streams switching on and off in different locations. During deglaciation, we find that their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter, and their total discharge decreased. Underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but - at the ice sheet scale - their drainage network adjusted and was strongly linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings are directly translatable to modern ice sheets but, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can draw-down large sectors of an ice sheet and accelerate its demise, we conclude that they reduced in effectiveness during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with final deglaciation accomplished most effectively by surface melting. This raises some interesting questions about the source and nature of major meltwater pulses and iceberg discharge events in the sea-level record.

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vanderVeen, Cornelius

2003-01-01

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

Abrupt glacial climate shifts controlled by ice sheet changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu; Lohmann, Gerrit; Knorr, Gregor; Purcell, Conor

2014-08-21

During glacial periods of the Late Pleistocene, an abundance of proxy data demonstrates the existence of large and repeated millennial-scale warming episodes, known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. This ubiquitous feature of rapid glacial climate change can be extended back as far as 800,000 years before present (BP) in the ice core record, and has drawn broad attention within the science and policy-making communities alike. Many studies have been dedicated to investigating the underlying causes of these changes, but no coherent mechanism has yet been identified. Here we show, by using a comprehensive fully coupled model, that gradual changes in the height of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets (NHISs) can alter the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and cause rapid glacial climate shifts closely resembling DO events. The simulated global climate responses--including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rainbelts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw--are generally consistent with empirical evidence. As a result of the coexistence of two glacial ocean circulation states at intermediate heights of the ice sheets, minor changes in the height of the NHISs and the amount of atmospheric CO2 can trigger the rapid climate transitions via a local positive atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice feedback in the North Atlantic. Our results, although based on a single model, thus provide a coherent concept for understanding the recorded millennial-scale variability and abrupt climate changes in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, as well as their linkages to the volume of the intermediate ice sheets during glacials.

Reconstruction of the Greenland ice sheet dynamics in a fully coupled Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Huybrechts, Philippe

2016-04-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are undoubtedly effective tools for studying climate dynamics. Incorporation of evolving ice sheets to ESMs is a challenging task because response times of the climate system and of ice sheets differ by several orders of magnitude. Besides, AO GCMs operate on spatial and temporal resolutions substantially differing from those of ice sheet models (ICMs). Therefore elaboration of an effective coupling methodology of an AO GCM and an ICM is the key problem of an ESM construction and utilization. Several downscaling strategies of varying complexity exist now of data exchange between modeled climate system and ice sheets. Application of a particular strategy depends on the research objectives. In our view, the optimum approach for model studying of significant environmental changes (e.g. glacial/interglacial transitions) when ice sheets undergo substantial evolution of geometry and volume would be an asynchronous coupling. The latter allows simulation in the interactive way of growth and decay of ice sheets in the changing climatic conditions. In the focus of the presentation, is the overview of coupling aspects of an AO GCM INMCM32 elaborated in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia) to the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM, Vrije Uninersiteit Brussel, Belgium). To provide interactive coupling of INMCM32 (spatial resolution 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers and temporal resolution 6 min. in the atmospheric block) and GrISM (spatial resolution 20×20 km, 51 vertical layers and 1 yr temporal resolution), we employ a special energy- and water balance model (EWBM-G), which serves as a buffer providing effective data exchange between INMCM32 and GrISM. EWBM-G operates in a rectangle domain including Greenland. Transfer of daily meanings of simulated climatic variables (air surface temperature and specific humidity) is provided on the lateral boundarias of the domain and inside the domain (sea level air pressure, wind speed and total cloudiness) after applying spline interpolation. EWBM-G calculates annual surface mass balance, SMB, (further transferred as an external forcing to the GrISM) and fresh water flux (transferred to the oceanic block of the INMCM32). After receiving SMB, GrIS is integrated and returns update surface topography back to the INMCM32. The aim of the current research is to establish equilibration time of climate and GrIS in the transient coupled run and to elaborate optimum methodology for performing numerical experiments simulating glacial/interglacial transitions.

Ice stream activity scaled to ice sheet volume during Laurentide Ice Sheet deglaciation.

PubMed

Stokes, C R; Margold, M; Clark, C D; Tarasov, L

2016-02-18

The contribution of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets to sea level has increased in recent decades, largely owing to the thinning and retreat of outlet glaciers and ice streams. This dynamic loss is a serious concern, with some modelling studies suggesting that the collapse of a major ice sheet could be imminent or potentially underway in West Antarctica, but others predicting a more limited response. A major problem is that observations used to initialize and calibrate models typically span only a few decades, and, at the ice-sheet scale, it is unclear how the entire drainage network of ice streams evolves over longer timescales. This represents one of the largest sources of uncertainty when predicting the contributions of ice sheets to sea-level rise. A key question is whether ice streams might increase and sustain rates of mass loss over centuries or millennia, beyond those expected for a given ocean-climate forcing. Here we reconstruct the activity of 117 ice streams that operated at various times during deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (from about 22,000 to 7,000 years ago) and show that as they activated and deactivated in different locations, their overall number decreased, they occupied a progressively smaller percentage of the ice sheet perimeter and their total discharge decreased. The underlying geology and topography clearly influenced ice stream activity, but--at the ice-sheet scale--their drainage network adjusted and was linked to changes in ice sheet volume. It is unclear whether these findings can be directly translated to modern ice sheets. However, contrary to the view that sees ice streams as unstable entities that can accelerate ice-sheet deglaciation, we conclude that ice streams exerted progressively less influence on ice sheet mass balance during the retreat of the Laurentide Ice Sheet.

Assessing the role of internal climate variability in Antarctica's contribution to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, C. Y.; Forest, C. E.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) has the potential to be a major contributor to future sea-level rise (SLR). Current projections of SLR due to AIS mass loss remain highly uncertain. Better understanding of how ice sheets respond to future climate forcing and variability is essential for assessing the long-term risk of SLR. However, the predictability of future climate is limited by uncertainties from emission scenarios, model structural differences, and the internal variability that is inherently generated within the fully coupled climate system. Among those uncertainties, the impact of internal variability on the AIS changes has not been explicitly assessed. In this study, we quantify the effect of internal variability on the AIS evolutions by using climate fields from two large-ensemble experiments using the Community Earth System Model to force a three-dimensional ice sheet model. We find that internal variability of climate fields, particularly atmospheric fields, among ensemble members leads to significantly different AIS responses. Our results show that the internal variability can cause about 80 mm differences of AIS contribution to SLR by 2100 compared to the ensemble-mean contribution of 380-450 mm. Moreover, using ensemble-mean climate fields as the forcing in the ice sheet model does not produce realistic simulations of the ice loss. Instead, it significantly delays the onset of retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet for up to 20 years and significantly underestimates the AIS contribution to SLR by 0.07-0.11 m in 2100 and up to 0.34 m in the 2250's. Therefore, because the uncertainty caused by internal variability is irreducible, we seek to highlight a critical need to assess the role of internal variability in projecting the AIS loss over the next few centuries. By quantifying the impact of internal variability on AIS contribution to SLR, policy makers can obtain more robust estimates of SLR and implement suitable adaptation strategies.

Assessing the Global Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing from the Antarctic Ice Sheet Under Future Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogstad, S.; Condron, A.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Observational evidence indicates that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate. Impacts to global climate resulting from changing ocean circulation patterns due to increased freshwater runoff from Antarctica in the future could have significant implications for global heat transport, but to-date this topic has not been investigated using complex numerical models with realistic freshwater forcing. Here, we present results from a high resolution fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model (CESM 1.2) forced with runoff from Antarctica prescribed from a high resolution regional ice sheet-ice shelf model. Results from the regional simulations indicate a potential freshwater contribution from Antarctica of up to 1 m equivalent sea level rise by the end of the century under RCP 8.5 indicating that a substantial input of freshwater into the Southern Ocean is possible. Our high resolution global simulations were performed under IPCC future climate scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. We will present results showing the impact of WAIS collapse on global ocean circulation, sea ice, air temperature, and salinity in order to assess the potential for abrupt climate change triggered by WAIS collapse.

Spatial Variability of Climate Signatures Recorded in an Array of Shallow Firn Cores from the Western Greenland Percolation Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thundercloud, Z. R.; Osterberg, E. C.; Ferris, D. G.; Graeter, K.; Lewis, G.; Hawley, R. L.; Marshall, H. P.

2016-12-01

Greenland ice cores provide seasonally to annually resolved proxy records of past temperature, accumulation and atmospheric circulation. Most Greenland ice cores have been collected from the dry snow zone at elevations greater than 2500 m to produce records of North Atlantic paleoclimate over the last full glacial cycle. Ice cores collected from more costal regions, however, provide the opportunity to develop regional-scale records of climate conditions along ice sheet margins where recent temperature and precipitation changes have been larger than those in the ice sheet interior. These cores are more readily comparable to lake sediment and landscape (i.e. moraine) records from the ice sheet margin, and are potentially more sensitive to sea-ice variability due to the proximity to the coast. Here we present major ion and stable isotope records from an array of firn cores (40-55 year records) collected in the western Greenland percolation zone, and assess the spatial variability of ice core statistical relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Baffin Bay sea ice extent. Seven cores were collected from elevations of 2100-2500 m along a 400-km segment of the ice sheet from Dye-2 to Milcent as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project from May-June 2016. They were sampled by a continuous melter system at Dartmouth College, and analyzed using Dionex ion chromatographs and a Picarro L2130-i laser ring-down spectrometer. We focus on the signature of the NAO and Baffin Bay sea ice extent in the sea-salt, dust, deuterium excess (d-excess), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) firn core records, and assess the special variability of these climate-ice core relationships across the study area. Climate reanalysis data indicate that NAO-ice core correlations should be stronger at lower elevation in the percolation zone than high in the dry snow zone. Our results will provide valuable insight into the sensitivity of Greenland ice core paleoclimate reconstructions to the specific ice core location, and thereby aid in site selection for deeper ice cores that could span the Holocene.

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, N. R.; Kowalewski, D. E.; Naish, T. R.; Levy, R. H.; Fogwill, C. J.; Gasson, E. G. W.

2015-10-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Golledge, N R; Kowalewski, D E; Naish, T R; Levy, R H; Fogwill, C J; Gasson, E G W

2015-10-15

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial values by the end of this century. If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (ref. 2). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

25 years of elevation changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet from ERS, Envisat, and CryoSat-2 radar altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandberg Sørensen, Louise; Simonsen, Sebastian B.; Forsberg, René; Khvorostovsky, Kirill; Meister, Rakia; Engdahl, Marcus E.

2018-08-01

The shape of the large ice sheets responds rapidly to climate change, making the elevation changes of these ice-covered regions an essential climate variable. Consistent, long time series of these elevation changes are of great scientific value. Here, we present a newly-developed data product of 25 years of elevation changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet, derived from satellite radar altimetry. The data product is made publicly available within the Greenland Ice Sheets project as part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative programme. Analyzing repeated elevation measurements from radar altimetry is widely used for monitoring changes of ice-covered regions. The Greenland Ice Sheet has been mapped by conventional radar altimetry since the launch of ERS-1 in 1991, which was followed by ERS-2, Envisat and currently CryoSat-2. The recently launched Sentinel-3A will provide a continuation of the radar altimetry time series. Since 2010, CryoSat-2 has for the first time measured the changes in the coastal regions of the ice sheet with radar altimetry, with its novel SAR Interferometric (SARIn) mode, which provides improved measurement over regions with steep slopes. Here, we apply a mission-specific combination of cross-over, along-track and plane-fit elevation change algorithms to radar data from the ERS-1, ERS-2, Envisat and CryoSat-2 radar missions, resulting in 25 years of nearly continuous elevation change estimates (1992-2016) of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This analysis has been made possible through the recent reprocessing in the REAPER project, of data from the ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar missions, making them consistent with Envisat data. The 25 years of elevation changes are evaluated as 5-year running means, shifted almost continuously by one year. A clear acceleration in thinning is evident in the 5-year maps of elevation following 2003, while only small elevation changes observed in the maps from the 1990s.

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.

2011-01-01

We have developed a climate-data record (CDR) of "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The CDR provides daily and monthly-mean IST from March 2000 through December 2010 on a polar stereographic projection at a resolution of 6.25 km. The CDR is amenable to extension into the future using Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.72 +/- 0.1 c per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. The IST CDR will provide a convenient data set for modelers and for climatologists to track changes of the surface temperature of the ice sheet as a whole and of the individual drainage basins on the ice sheet. The daily and monthly maps will provide information on surface melt as well as "clear-sky" temperature. The CDR will be further validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products.

Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E. J.

2015-12-01

Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place but are getting there. Projection scenarios are overwhelmingly conservative, pushed up by observations, awaiting more detailed knowledge of ocean circulation, winds, ice-ocean interaction, and mechanics of rapid ice fracture, not to mention the mere definition of static boundaries (ice thickness and sea floor bathymetry).

Evaluation of three methods of different levels of complexity to represent the interactions between the Greenland ice sheet and the atmosphere at the century time scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le clec'h, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Quiquet, Aurelien; Dumas, Christophe; Kageyama, Masa; Charbit, Sylvie; Ritz, Catherine

2017-04-01

Based on numerous studies showing implications of polar ice sheets on the climate system, the climate community recommended the development of methods to account for feedbacks between polar ice sheets and the other climate components. In this study we used three methods of different levels of complexity to represent the interactions between a Greenland ice sheet model (GRISLI) and a regional atmospheric model (MAR) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The simplest method, i.e. uncoupled, does not account for interactions between both models. In this method MAR computes varying atmospheric conditions using the same present-day observed Greenland ice sheet topography and extent. The outputs are then used to force GRISLI. The second method is a one-way coupling method in which the MAR outputs are corrected to account for topography changes before their transfer to GRISLI. The third method is a fully coupled method allowing the full representation of interactions between MAR and GRISLI. In this case, the ice sheet topography and its extent as seen by the atmospheric model is updated for each ice sheet model time step. The three methods are evaluated regarding the Greenland ice sheet response from 2000 to 2150. As expected, the uncoupled method shows a coastal thinning of the ice sheet due to a decreasing surface mass balance for coastal regions related to increased mean surface temperature. The one-way coupling and the full coupling methods tend to amplify the surface mass balance due to surface elevation feedback. The uncoupled method tends to underestimate the Greenland ice sheet volume reduction compared to both coupling methods over 150 years. This underestimation is of the same order of magnitude of the ice loss from the Greenland peripheral glaciers at the end of the 21st century. As for the uncoupled method, the thinning of the ice sheet occurs in coastal regions for both coupling methods. However compared to the one-way coupling method, the fully coupled method tends to increase the spatial variability of the surface mass balance changes through time. Our results also indicate that differences between the two coupling methods increase with time, which suggests that the choice of the method should depend on the timescale considered. Beyond century scale projections the fully coupled method is necessary in order to avoid underestimation of the ice sheet volume reduction, whilst the one-way method seems to be sufficient to represent the interactions between the atmosphere and the GrIS for projections by the end of the century.

Coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model simulations of the glacial cycle: A possible connection between terminations and terrigenous dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peltier, W. Richard; Marshall, Shawn

1995-07-01

We apply a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet climate model in an investigation of northern hemisphere ice-sheet advance and retreat over the last glacial cycle. When driven only by orbital insolation variations, the model predicts ice-sheet advances over the continents of North America and Eurasia that are in good agreement with geological reconstructions in terms of the timescale of advance and the spatial positioning of the main ice masses. The orbital forcing alone, however, is unable to induce the observed rapid ice-sheet retreat, and we conclude that additional climatic feedbacks not explicitly included in the basic model must be acting. In the analyses presented here we have parameterized a number of potentially important effects in order to test their relative influence on the process of glacial termination. These include marine instability, thermohaline circulation effects, carbon dioxide variations, and snow albedo changes caused by dust loading during periods of high atmospheric aerosol concentration. For the purpose of these analyses the temporal changes in the latter two variables were inferred from ice core records. Of these various influences, our analyses suggest that the albedo variations in the ice-sheet ablation zone caused by dust loading may represent an extremely important ablation mechanism. Using our parameterization of "dirty" snow in the ablation zone we find glacial retreat to be strongly accelerated, such that complete collapse of the otherwise stable Laurentide ice sheet ensues. The last glacial maximum configurations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian complexes are also brought into much closer accord with the ICE-3G reconstruction of Tushingham and Peltier (1991,1992) and the ICE-4G reconstruction of Peltier (1994) when this effect is reasonably introduced.

Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Vinther, B M; Buchardt, S L; Clausen, H B; Dahl-Jensen, D; Johnsen, S J; Fisher, D A; Koerner, R M; Raynaud, D; Lipenkov, V; Andersen, K K; Blunier, T; Rasmussen, S O; Steffensen, J P; Svensson, A M

2009-09-17

On entering an era of global warming, the stability of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is an important concern, especially in the light of new evidence of rapidly changing flow and melt conditions at the GIS margins. Studying the response of the GIS to past climatic change may help to advance our understanding of GIS dynamics. The previous interpretation of evidence from stable isotopes (delta(18)O) in water from GIS ice cores was that Holocene climate variability on the GIS differed spatially and that a consistent Holocene climate optimum-the unusually warm period from about 9,000 to 6,000 years ago found in many northern-latitude palaeoclimate records-did not exist. Here we extract both the Greenland Holocene temperature history and the evolution of GIS surface elevation at four GIS locations. We achieve this by comparing delta(18)O from GIS ice cores with delta(18)O from ice cores from small marginal icecaps. Contrary to the earlier interpretation of delta(18)O evidence from ice cores, our new temperature history reveals a pronounced Holocene climatic optimum in Greenland coinciding with maximum thinning near the GIS margins. Our delta(18)O-based results are corroborated by the air content of ice cores, a proxy for surface elevation. State-of-the-art ice sheet models are generally found to be underestimating the extent and changes in GIS elevation and area; our findings may help to improve the ability of models to reproduce the GIS response to Holocene climate.

Climate change and forest fires synergistically drive widespread melt events of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Keegan, Kaitlin M; Albert, Mary R; McConnell, Joseph R; Baker, Ian

2014-06-03

In July 2012, over 97% of the Greenland Ice Sheet experienced surface melt, the first widespread melt during the era of satellite remote sensing. Analysis of six Greenland shallow firn cores from the dry snow region confirms that the most recent prior widespread melt occurred in 1889. A firn core from the center of the ice sheet demonstrated that exceptionally warm temperatures combined with black carbon sediments from Northern Hemisphere forest fires reduced albedo below a critical threshold in the dry snow region, and caused the melting events in both 1889 and 2012. We use these data to project the frequency of widespread melt into the year 2100. Since Arctic temperatures and the frequency of forest fires are both expected to rise with climate change, our results suggest that widespread melt events on the Greenland Ice Sheet may begin to occur almost annually by the end of century. These events are likely to alter the surface mass balance of the ice sheet, leaving the surface susceptible to further melting.

Century/millennium internal climate oscillations in an ocean-atmosphere-continental ice sheet model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Birchfield, Edward G.; Wang, Huaxiao; Rich, Jonathan J.

1994-01-01

We demonstrate in a simple climate model that there exist nonlinear feedbacks between the atmosphere, ocean, and ice sheets capable of producing century/millennium timescale internal oscillations resembling those seen in the paleoclimate record. Feedbacks involve meridional heat and salt transports in the North Atlantic, surface ocean freshwater fluxes associated with melting and growing continental ice sheets in the northen hemisphere and with Atlantic to Pacific water vapor transport. The positive feedback between the production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and the meridional salt transport by the Atlantic thermohaline circulation tends to destabilize the climate system, while the negative feedback between the freshwater flux, either to or from the continental ice sheets, and meridional heat flux to the high-latitude North Atlantic, accomplished by the thermohaline circulation, stabilizes the system. The thermohaline circulation plays a central role in both positive and negative feedbacks because of its transport of both heat and salt. Because of asymmetries between the growth and melt phases the oscillations are, in general, accompanied by a growing or decreasing ice volume over each cycle, which in the model is reflected by increasing or decreasing mean salinity.

Climate Sensitivity in the Anthropocene

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Previdi, M.; Liepert, B. G.; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Hansen, J.; Beerling, D. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Frolking, S.; Galloway, J. N.; Heimann, M.; LeQuere, C.;

SEA-LEVEL RISE. Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods.

PubMed

Dutton, A; Carlson, A E; Long, A J; Milne, G A; Clark, P U; DeConto, R; Horton, B P; Rahmstorf, S; Raymo, M E

2015-07-10

Interdisciplinary studies of geologic archives have ushered in a new era of deciphering magnitudes, rates, and sources of sea-level rise from polar ice-sheet loss during past warm periods. Accounting for glacial isostatic processes helps to reconcile spatial variability in peak sea level during marine isotope stages 5e and 11, when the global mean reached 6 to 9 meters and 6 to 13 meters higher than present, respectively. Dynamic topography introduces large uncertainties on longer time scales, precluding robust sea-level estimates for intervals such as the Pliocene. Present climate is warming to a level associated with significant polar ice-sheet loss in the past. Here, we outline advances and challenges involved in constraining ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change with use of paleo-sea level records. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levermann, A.; Winkelmann, R.; Nowicki, S.; Fastook, J. L.; Frieler, K.; Greve, R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Martin, M. A.; Meinshausen, M.; Mengel, M.; Payne, A. J.; Pollard, D.; Sato, T.; Timmermann, R.; Wang, W. L.; Bindschadler, R. A.

2014-08-01

The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. Basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major cause for additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. The uncertainty in the global mean temperature increase is obtained from historically constrained emulations with the MAGICC-6.0 (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change) model. The oceanic forcing is derived from scaling of the subsurface with the atmospheric warming from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-5) and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. The dynamic ice-sheet response is derived from linear response functions for basal ice-shelf melting for four different Antarctic drainage regions using experiments from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. The resulting uncertainty range for the historic Antarctic contribution to global sea-level rise from 1992 to 2011 agrees with the observed contribution for this period if we use the three ice-sheet models with an explicit representation of ice-shelf dynamics and account for the time-delayed warming of the oceanic subsurface compared to the surface air temperature. The median of the additional ice loss for the 21st century is computed to 0.07 m (66% range: 0.02-0.14 m; 90% range: 0.0-0.23 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario and 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.21 m; 90% range: 0.01-0.37 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. Assuming no time delay between the atmospheric warming and the oceanic subsurface, these values increase to 0.09 m (66% range: 0.04-0.17 m; 90% range: 0.02-0.25 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66% range: 0.07-0.28 m; 90% range: 0.04-0.43 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions are highly skewed towards high values. The applied ice-sheet models are coarse resolution with limitations in the representation of grounding-line motion. Within the constraints of the applied methods, the uncertainty induced from different ice-sheet models is smaller than that induced by the external forcing to the ice sheets.

Improved climate model evaluation using a new, 750-year Antarctic-wide snow accumulation product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medley, B.; Thomas, E. R.

2017-12-01

Snow that accumulates over the cold, dry grounded ice of Antarctica is an important component of its mass balance, mitigating the ice sheet's contribution to sea level. Secular trends in accumulation not only result trends in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also directly and indirectly impact surface height changes. Long-term and spatiotemporally complete records of snow accumulation are needed to understand part and present Antarctic-wide mass balance, to convert from altimetry derived volume change to mass change, and to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed climate change. We need measurements in both time and space, yet they typically sample one dimension at the expense of the other. Here, we develop a spatially complete, annually resolved snow accumulation product for the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the past 750 years by combining a newly compiled database of ice core accumulation records with climate model output. We mainly focus on climate model evaluation. Because the product spans several centuries, we can evaluate model ability in representing the preindustrial as well as present day accumulation change. Significant long-term trends in snow accumulation are found over the Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and several sectors in East Antarctica. These results suggest that change is more complex over the Antarctic Ice Sheet than a simple uniform change (i.e., more snowfall in a warming world), which highlights the importance of atmospheric circulation as a major driver of change. By evaluating several climate models' ability to reproduce the observed trends, we can deduce whether their projections are reasonable or potentially biased where the latter would result in a misrepresentation of the Antarctic contribution to sea level.

Rapid Swings between Greenhouse and Icehouse Climate States near the Oligocene - Miocene Boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Fraass, A.; Ruan, J.; Jin, X.; D'haenens, S.; Gasson, E.; Deconto, R. M.; Pearson, A.; Leckie, R. M.; Liu, C.; Liebrand, D.; Hull, P. M.; Pagani, M.

2017-12-01

The Earth's Cenozoic climate is conventionally portrayed as either being in a greenhouse or an icehouse conditions. Greenhouse climates are characterized by warm temperatures, high CO2 concentrations, low continental ice volume and reduced meridional temperature gradients, whereas icehouse climates are the opposite. The transition between greenhouse and icehouse primarily is achieved through stepwise and unidirectional cooling, ice sheet growth and increases in the meridional temperature gradients. Various feedbacks in the climate system and the global carbon cycle as well as the ice sheet hysteresis effect seem to preclude substantial fluctuations in the meridional temperature gradients, atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the volume of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) on a high frequency (orbital timescales). For example, relative to the Holocene, the last glacial maximum (LGM) is characterized by relatively small pCO2 changes (80-100 parts per million, ppm), similar cooling between the mid- and low-latitudes, and a stable East Antarctica Ice Sheet (EAIS). However, here we present geochemical reconstructions that appear to indicate large and rapid swings of CO2 (>200 ppm) and meridional temperature gradients near the Oligocene - Miocene (O-M) boundary ( 23 Ma). Further, transient waxing and waning of the EAIS during the Mi-1 glaciation is suggested by ice volume calculations based on benthic δ18O data, which are supported by the glaciomarine sequences deposited at the Ross Sea. Our results demonstrate a high sensitivity of surface ocean temperatures and temperature gradients, the global carbon cycle, and the cryosphere to changes in boundary conditions, with implications for our future.

Widespread surface meltwater drainage in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Ely, J.; Das, I.; Bell, R. E.

2016-12-01

Surface meltwater is thought to cause ice-shelf disintegration, which accelerates the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise. Antarctic surface melting is predicted to increase and trigger further ice-shelf disintegration during this century. These climate-change impacts could be modulated by an active hydrological network analogous to the one in operation in Greenland. Despite some observations of Antarctic surface and sub-surface hydrological systems, large-scale active surface drainage in Antarctica has rarely been studied. We use satellite imagery and aerial photography to reveal widespread active hydrology on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as far south as 85o and as high as 1800 m a.s.l., often near mountain peaks that protrude through the ice (nunataks) and relatively low-albedo `blue-ice areas'. Despite predominantly sub-zero regional air temperatures, as simulated by a regional climate model, Antarctic active drainage has persisted for decades, transporting water through surface streams and feeding vast melt ponds up to 80 km long. Drainage networks (the largest are over 100 km in length) form on flat ice shelves, steep outlet glaciers and ice-sheet flanks across the West and East Antarctica Ice Sheets. Motivated by the proximity of many drainage systems to low-albedo rock and blue-ice areas, we hypothesize a positive feedback between exposed-rock extent, BIA formation, melting and ice-sheet thinning. This feedback relies on drainage moving water long distances from areas near exposed rock, across the grounding line onto and across ice shelves - a process we observe, but had previously thought to be unlikely in Antarctica. This work highlights previously-overlooked processes, not captured by current regional-scale models, which may accelerate the retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Greenhouse to Icehouse Antarctic Paleoclimate and Ice History from George V Land and Adélie Land Shelf Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, T.; Escutia, C.; De Santis, L.; O'Brien, P.; Pekar, S. F.; Brinkhuis, H.; Domack, E. W.

2013-12-01

Along the George V and Adélie Land continental shelf of East Antarctica, shallowly-buried strata contain a record of Antarctica's climate and ice history from the lush forests of the Eocene greenhouse to the dynamic ice sheet margins of the Neogene. Short piston cores and dredges have recovered Early Cretaceous and Eocene organic-rich sediment at the seabed, and in 2010, IODP Expedition 318 recovered earliest Oligocene and early Pliocene subglacial and proglacial diamictites. However, challenging ice and drilling conditions from the JOIDES Resolution on the shelf resulted in poor core recovery and sites had to be abandoned before the stratigraphic targets could be reached. Therefore, in a new IODP drilling proposal submitted earlier this year, we propose to use the MeBo sea bed drill for improved core recovery and easier access to the shelf, and drill a stratigraphic transect of shallow (~80m) holes. To investigate the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in this sector, we target strata above and below regional erosional and downlap surfaces to date and characterize major episodes of ice sheet advance and retreat. These direct records of ice extent on the shelf can be set in the context of Southern Ocean records of temperature, ice-rafted debris (IRD) and latitudinal fluctuations of the opal belt, and hence we can relate ice sheet evolution to paleoclimate conditions. Targets include possible late Eocene precursor glaciations, the Eocene/Oligocene boundary erosion surface, Oligocene and Miocene ice extents, and ice margin fluctuations in the Pliocene. At the Cretaceous and Eocene proposed sites, marine and terrestrial temperature proxies and palynological records will provide information on high-latitude paleoenvironments and pole-equator temperature gradients. Here we present existing data from the area and the proposed new drill sites. The ice and climate history of the George V and Adélie Land margin can provide warm-world scenarios to help understand ice sheet instability in analogous future warm climates.

Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

2015-12-01

Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination.

PubMed

Fogwill, C J; Turney, C S M; Golledge, N R; Etheridge, D M; Rubino, M; Thornton, D P; Baker, A; Woodward, J; Winter, K; van Ommen, T D; Moy, A D; Curran, M A J; Davies, S M; Weber, M E; Bird, M I; Munksgaard, N C; Menviel, L; Rootes, C M; Ellis, B; Millman, H; Vohra, J; Rivera, A; Cooper, A

2017-01-05

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to disentangle ice-climate feedbacks that are key to improving future projections. Whilst the sequence of events during this period is reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet (AIS) dynamics, climate change and sea level. Here we present results from a highly-resolved 'horizontal ice core' from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale AIS dynamics across this extensive region. Counterintuitively, we find AIS mass-loss across the full duration of the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago), with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth-system and ice-sheet modelling suggests these contrasting trends were likely Antarctic-wide, sustained by feedbacks amplified by the delivery of Circumpolar Deep Water onto the continental shelf. Given the anti-phase relationship between inter-hemispheric climate trends across the LGT our findings demonstrate that Southern Ocean-AIS feedbacks were controlled by global atmospheric teleconnections. With increasing stratification of the Southern Ocean and intensification of mid-latitude westerly winds today, such teleconnections could amplify AIS mass loss and accelerate global sea-level rise.

Coupled ice sheet-ocean modelling to investigate ocean driven melting of marine ice sheets in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jong, Lenneke; Gladstone, Rupert; Galton-Fenzi, Ben

2017-04-01

Ocean induced melting below the ice shelves of marine ice sheets is a major source of uncertainty for predictions of ice mass loss and Antarctica's resultant contribution to future sea level rise. The floating ice shelves provide a buttressing force against the flow of ice across the grounding line into the ocean. Thinning of these ice shelves due to an increase in melting reduces this force and can lead to an increase in the discharge of grounded ice. Fully coupled modelling of ice sheet-ocean interactions is key to improving understanding the influence of the Southern ocean on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet, and to predicting its future behaviour under changing climate conditions. Coupling of ocean and ice sheet models is needed to provide more realistic melt rates at the base of ice shelves and hence make better predictions of the behaviour of the grounding line and the shape of the ice-shelf cavity as the ice sheet evolves. The Framework for Ice Sheet - Ocean Coupling (FISOC) has been developed to provide a flexible platform for performing coupled ice sheet - ocean modelling experiments. We present preliminary results using FISOC to couple the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) with Elmer/Ice in idealised experiments Marine Ice Sheet-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (MISOMIP). These experiments use an idealised geometry motivated by that of Pine Island glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea in West Antarctica, a region which has shown shown signs of thinning ice and grounding line retreat.

Physical basis for a thick ice shelf in the Arctic Basin during the penultimate glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasson, E.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.; Clark, C.

2017-12-01

A thick ice shelf covering the Arctic Ocean during glacial stages was discussed in a number of publications in the 1970s. Although this hypothesis has received intermittent attention, the emergence of new geophysical evidence for ice grounding in water depths of up to 1 km in the central Arctic Basin has renewed interest into the physical plausibility and significance of an Arctic ice shelf. Various ice shelf configurations have been proposed, from an ice shelf restricted to the Amerasian Basin (the `minimum model') to a complete ice shelf cover in the Arctic. Attempts to simulate an Arctic ice shelf have been limited. Here we use a hybrid ice sheet / shelf model that has been widely applied to the Antarctic ice sheet to explore the potential for thick ice shelves forming in the Arctic Basin. We use a climate forcing appropriate for MIS6, the penultimate glacial maximum. We perform a number of experiments testing different ice sheet / shelf configurations and compare the model results with ice grounding locations and inferred flow directions. Finally, we comment on the potential significance of an Arctic ice shelf to the global glacial climate system.

The multi-millennial Antarctic commitment to future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golledge, Nicholas R.; Kowalewski, Douglas E.; Naish, Timothy R.; Levy, Richard H.; Fogwill, Christopher J.; Gasson, Edward G. W.

2016-04-01

Atmospheric warming is projected to increase global mean surface temperatures by 0.3 to 4.8 degrees Celsius above present values by the end of this century (Collins et al., 2013). If anthropogenic emissions continue unchecked, the warming increase may reach 8-10 degrees Celsius by 2300 (Rogelj et al., 2012). The contribution that large ice sheets will make to sea-level rise under such warming scenarios is difficult to quantify because the equilibrium-response timescale of ice sheets is longer than those of the atmosphere or ocean. Here we use a coupled ice-sheet/ice-shelf model to show that if atmospheric warming exceeds 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above present, collapse of the major Antarctic ice shelves triggers a centennial- to millennial-scale response of the Antarctic ice sheet in which enhanced viscous flow produces a long-term commitment (an unstoppable contribution) to sea-level rise. Our simulations represent the response of the present-day Antarctic ice-sheet system to the oceanic and climatic changes of four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Collins et al., 2013). We find that substantial Antarctic ice loss can be prevented only by limiting greenhouse gas emissions to RCP 2.6 levels. Higher-emissions scenarios lead to ice loss from Antarctic that will raise sea level by 0.6-3 metres by the year 2300. Our results imply that greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades will strongly influence the long-term contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea level.

Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.

Recent Climate and Ice-Sheet Changes in West Antarctica Compared with the Past 2,000 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steig, Eric J.; Ding, Qinghua; White, James W.; Kuttel, Marcel; Rupper, Summer B.; Neumann, Thomas Allen; Neff, Peter D.; Gallant, Ailie J. E.; Mayewski, Paul A.; Taylor, Kendrick C.;

Reconstructing the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets with Ice Sheet Models; data-model comparison and focus on the Storfjorden (Svalbard) ice stream dynamics history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrini, Michele; Kirchner, Nina; Colleoni, Florence; Camerlenghi, Angelo; Rebesco, Michele; Lucchi, Renata G.; Forte, Emanuele; Colucci, Renato R.

2017-04-01

The challenge of reconstructing palaeo-ice sheets past growth and decay represent a critical task to better understand mechanisms of present and future global climate change. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the subsequent deglaciation until Pre-Industrial time (PI) represent an excellent testing ground for numerical Ice Sheet Models (ISMs), due to the abundant data available that can be used in an ISM as boundary conditions, forcings or constraints to test the ISMs results. In our study, we simulate with ISMs the post-LGM decay of the Eurasian Ice Sheets, with a focus on the marine-based Svalbard-Barents Sea-Kara Sea Ice Sheet. In particular, we aim to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history by comparing the model results with the marine geological data (MSGLs, GZWs, sediment cores analysis) available from the area, e.g., Pedrosa et al. 2011, Rebesco et al. 2011, 2013, Lucchi et al. 2013. Two hybrid SIA/SSA ISMs are employed, GRISLI, Ritz et al. 2001, and PSU, Pollard&DeConto 2012. These models differ mainly in the complexity with which grounding line migration is treated. Climate forcing is interpolated by means of climate indexes between LGM and PI climate. Regional climate indexes are constructed based on the non-accelerated deglaciation transient experiment carried out with CCSM3, Liu et al. 2009. Indexes representative of the climate evolution over Siberia, Svalbard and Scandinavia are employed. The impact of such refined representation as opposed to the common use of the NGRIP δ18O index for transient experiments is analysed. In this study, the ice-ocean interaction is crucial to reconstruct the Storfjorden ice stream dynamics history. To investigate the sensitivity of the ice shelf/stream retreat to ocean temperature, we allow for a space-time variation of basal melting under the ice shelves by testing two-equations implementations based on Martin et al. 2011 forced with simulated ocean temperature and salinity from the TraCE-21ka coupled climate simulation. In this presentation, we will show work in progress, address open issues, and sketch future work. In particular, we invite the community to suggest possibilities for model-data comparison and integration. Liu, Z., Otto-Bliesner, B.L., He, F., Brady, E.C., Tomas, R., Clark, P.U., Carlson, A.E., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Curry, W., Brook, E. and Erickson, D., 2009. Transient simulation of last deglaciation with a new mechanism for Bólling-Alleród warming. Science, 325(5938), pp.310-314. Lucchi, R.G., Camerlenghi, A., Rebesco, M., Colmenero-Hidalgo, E., Sierro, F.J., Sagnotti, L., Urgeles, R., Melis, R., Morigi, C., Bárcena, M.A. and Giorgetti, G., 2013. Postglacial sedimentary processes on the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough mouth fans: Significance of extreme glacimarine sedimentation. Global and planetary change, 111, pp.309-326. Martin, M.A., Winkelmann, R., Haseloff, M., Albrecht, T., Bueler, E., Khroulev, C. and Levermann, A., 2011. The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK)-Part 2: Dynamic equilibrium simulation of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Cryosphere, 5(3), pp.727-740. Pedrosa, M.T., Camerlenghi, A., De Mol, B., Urgeles, R., Rebesco, M. and Lucchi, R.G., 2011. Seabed morphology and shallow sedimentary structure of the Storfjorden and Kveithola trough-mouth fans (north west Barents Sea). Marine Geology, 286(1), pp.65-81. Pollard, D. and DeConto, R.M., 2012. Description of a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model, and application to Antarctica. Geoscientific Model Development, 5(5), pp.1273-1295. Rebesco, M., Liu, Y., Camerlenghi, A., Winsborrow, M., Laberg, J.S., Caburlotto, A., Diviacco, P., Accettella, D., Sauli, C., Wardell, N. and Tomini, I., 2011. Deglaciation of the western margin of the Barents Sea Ice Sheet-a swath bathymetric and sub-bottom seismic study from the Kveithola Trough. Marine Geology, 279(1), pp.141-147. Rebesco, M., Laberg, J., Pedrosa, M., Camerlenghi, A., Lucchi, R., Zgur, F. and Wardell, N., 2013. Onset and growth of Trough-Mouth Fans on the North-Western Barents Sea margin e implications for the evolution of the Barents Sea/Svalbard Ice Sheet. Quaternary Science Reviews, 30, pp.1-8. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C., 2001. Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 106(D23), pp.31943-31964.

Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; Florindo, Fabio; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Tripati, Robert; von Eynatten, Hilmar; Gasson, Edward; Kuhn, Gerhard; Tripati, Aradhna; DeConto, Robert; Fielding, Christopher; Field, Brad; Golledge, Nicholas; McKay, Robert; Naish, Timothy; Olney, Matthew; Pollard, David; Schouten, Stefan; Talarico, Franco; Warny, Sophie; Willmott, Veronica; Acton, Gary; Panter, Kurt; Paulsen, Timothy; Taviani, Marco; SMS Science Team; Acton, Gary; Askin, Rosemary; Atkins, Clifford; Bassett, Kari; Beu, Alan; Blackstone, Brian; Browne, Gregory; Ceregato, Alessandro; Cody, Rosemary; Cornamusini, Gianluca; Corrado, Sveva; DeConto, Robert; Del Carlo, Paola; Di Vincenzo, Gianfranco; Dunbar, Gavin; Falk, Candice; Field, Brad; Fielding, Christopher; Florindo, Fabio; Frank, Tracy; Giorgetti, Giovanna; Grelle, Thomas; Gui, Zi; Handwerger, David; Hannah, Michael; Harwood, David M.; Hauptvogel, Dan; Hayden, Travis; Henrys, Stuart; Hoffmann, Stefan; Iacoviello, Francesco; Ishman, Scott; Jarrard, Richard; Johnson, Katherine; Jovane, Luigi; Judge, Shelley; Kominz, Michelle; Konfirst, Matthew; Krissek, Lawrence; Kuhn, Gerhard; Lacy, Laura; Levy, Richard; Maffioli, Paola; Magens, Diana; Marcano, Maria C.; Millan, Cristina; Mohr, Barbara; Montone, Paola; Mukasa, Samuel; Naish, Timothy; Niessen, Frank; Ohneiser, Christian; Olney, Mathew; Panter, Kurt; Passchier, Sandra; Patterson, Molly; Paulsen, Timothy; Pekar, Stephen; Pierdominici, Simona; Pollard, David; Raine, Ian; Reed, Joshua; Reichelt, Lucia; Riesselman, Christina; Rocchi, Sergio; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Sandroni, Sonia; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Schmitt, Douglas; Speece, Marvin; Storey, Bryan; Strada, Eleonora; Talarico, Franco; Taviani, Marco; Tuzzi, Eva; Verosub, Kenneth; von Eynatten, Hilmar; Warny, Sophie; Wilson, Gary; Wilson, Terry; Wonik, Thomas; Zattin, Massimiliano

2016-03-01

Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23-14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3-4 °C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major disconformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (˜280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (˜500 ppm) atmospheric CO2. These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene.

Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene

PubMed Central

Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; Florindo, Fabio; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Tripati, Robert; von Eynatten, Hilmar; Tripati, Aradhna; DeConto, Robert; Fielding, Christopher; Field, Brad; Golledge, Nicholas; McKay, Robert; Naish, Timothy; Olney, Matthew; Pollard, David; Schouten, Stefan; Talarico, Franco; Warny, Sophie; Willmott, Veronica; Acton, Gary; Panter, Kurt; Paulsen, Timothy; Taviani, Marco

2016-01-01

Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23–14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3–4 °C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major disconformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (∼280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (∼500 ppm) atmospheric CO2. These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene. PMID:26903644

Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 variations in the early to mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Levy, Richard; Harwood, David; Florindo, Fabio; Sangiorgi, Francesca; Tripati, Robert; von Eynatten, Hilmar; Gasson, Edward; Kuhn, Gerhard; Tripati, Aradhna; DeConto, Robert; Fielding, Christopher; Field, Brad; Golledge, Nicholas; McKay, Robert; Naish, Timothy; Olney, Matthew; Pollard, David; Schouten, Stefan; Talarico, Franco; Warny, Sophie; Willmott, Veronica; Acton, Gary; Panter, Kurt; Paulsen, Timothy; Taviani, Marco

2016-03-29

Geological records from the Antarctic margin offer direct evidence of environmental variability at high southern latitudes and provide insight regarding ice sheet sensitivity to past climate change. The early to mid-Miocene (23-14 Mya) is a compelling interval to study as global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to those projected for coming centuries. Importantly, this time interval includes the Miocene Climatic Optimum, a period of global warmth during which average surface temperatures were 3-4 °C higher than today. Miocene sediments in the ANDRILL-2A drill core from the Western Ross Sea, Antarctica, indicate that the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) was highly variable through this key time interval. A multiproxy dataset derived from the core identifies four distinct environmental motifs based on changes in sedimentary facies, fossil assemblages, geochemistry, and paleotemperature. Four major disconformities in the drill core coincide with regional seismic discontinuities and reflect transient expansion of grounded ice across the Ross Sea. They correlate with major positive shifts in benthic oxygen isotope records and generally coincide with intervals when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were at or below preindustrial levels (∼280 ppm). Five intervals reflect ice sheet minima and air temperatures warm enough for substantial ice mass loss during episodes of high (∼500 ppm) atmospheric CO2 These new drill core data and associated ice sheet modeling experiments indicate that polar climate and the AIS were highly sensitive to relatively small changes in atmospheric CO2 during the early to mid-Miocene.

Relative sea-level rise around East Antarctica during Oligocene glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stocchi, Paolo; Escutia, Carlota; Houben, Alexander J. P.; Vermeersen, Bert L. A.; Bijl, Peter K.; Brinkhuis, Henk; Deconto, Robert M.; Galeotti, Simone; Passchier, Sandra; Pollard, David; Brinkhuis, Henk; Escutia, Carlota; Klaus, Adam; Fehr, Annick; Williams, Trevor; Bendle, James A. P.; Bijl, Peter K.; Bohaty, Steven M.; Carr, Stephanie A.; Dunbar, Robert B.; Flores, Jose Abel; Gonzàlez, Jhon J.; Hayden, Travis G.; Iwai, Masao; Jimenez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Katsuki, Kota; Kong, Gee Soo; McKay, Robert M.; Nakai, Mutsumi; Olney, Matthew P.; Passchier, Sandra; Pekar, Stephen F.; Pross, Jörg; Riesselman, Christina; Röhl, Ursula; Sakai, Toyosaburo; Shrivastava, Prakash Kumar; Stickley, Catherine E.; Sugisaki, Saiko; Tauxe, Lisa; Tuo, Shouting; van de Flierdt, Tina; Welsh, Kevin; Yamane, Masako

2013-05-01

During the middle and late Eocene (~ 48-34Myr ago), the Earth's climate cooled and an ice sheet built up on Antarctica. The stepwise expansion of ice on Antarctica induced crustal deformation and gravitational perturbations around the continent. Close to the ice sheet, sea level rose despite an overall reduction in the mass of the ocean caused by the transfer of water to the ice sheet. Here we identify the crustal response to ice-sheet growth by forcing a glacial-hydro isostatic adjustment model with an Antarctic ice-sheet model. We find that the shelf areas around East Antarctica first shoaled as upper mantle material upwelled and a peripheral forebulge developed. The inner shelf subsequently subsided as lithosphere flexure extended outwards from the ice-sheet margins. Consequently the coasts experienced a progressive relative sea-level rise. Our analysis of sediment cores from the vicinity of the Antarctic ice sheet are in agreement with the spatial patterns of relative sea-level change indicated by our simulations. Our results are consistent with the suggestion that near-field processes such as local sea-level change influence the equilibrium state obtained by an ice-sheet grounding line.

Glacial geomorphic evidence for a late climatic change on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kargel, J. S.; Strom, R. G.

1992-01-01

In a series of preliminary reports, we documented evidence of former glacial epochs on Mars. Apparent glacial landforms seemed to be concentrated primarily at middle to high southern latitudes. We now have additional evidence supporting the view that Martian glaciation appears to have been more extensive than previously recognized. The growth and collapse of ice sheets on Mars seems closely analogous to the growth and decline of Earth's great Pleistocene ice sheets. This implies that climate change was probably somewhat comparable on the two planets, although in the case of Mars the entire planet seems to have changed rapidly to a cold, dry present-day environment after the collapse of the ice sheets.

Velocities of antarctic outlet glaciers determined from sequential Landsat images

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacDonald, Thomas R.; Ferrigno, Jane G.; Williams, Richard S.; Lucchitta, Baerbel K.

1989-01-01

Approximately 91.0 percent of the volume of present-day glacier ice on Earth is in Antarctica; Greenland contains about another 8.3 percent of the volume. Thus, together, these two great ice sheets account for an estimated 99.3 percent of the total. Long-term changes in the volume of glacier ice on our planet are the result of global climate change. Because of the relationship of global ice volume to sea level (± 330 cubic kilometers of glacier ice equals ± 1 millimeter sea level), changes in the mass balance of the antarctic ice sheet are of particular importance.Whether the mass balance of the east and west antarctic ice sheets is positive or negative is not known. Estimates of mass input by total annual precipitation for the continent have been made from scattered meteorological observations (Swithinbank 1985). The magnitude of annual ablation of the ice sheet from calving of outlet glaciers and ice shelves is also not well known. Although the velocities of outlet glaciers can be determined from field measurements during the austral summer,the technique is costly, does not cover a complete annual cycle,and has been applied to just a few glaciers. To increase the number of outlet glaciers in Antarctica for which velocities have been determined and to provide additional data for under-standing the dynamics of the antarctic ice sheets and their response to global climate change, sequential Landsat image of several outlet glaciers were measured.

History of the Greenland Ice Sheet: paleoclimatic insights

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Andrews, John T.; Brigham-Grette, J.; Clarke, G.K.C.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Fitzpatrick, J.J.; Funder, S.; Marshall, S.J.; Miller, G.H.; Mitrovica, J.X.; Muhs, D.R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Polyak, L.; White, J.W.C.

2010-01-01

Paleoclimatic records show that the GreenlandIce Sheet consistently has lost mass in response to warming, and grown in response to cooling. Such changes have occurred even at times of slow or zero sea-level change, so changing sea level cannot have been the cause of at least some of the ice-sheet changes. In contrast, there are no documented major ice-sheet changes that occurred independent of temperature changes. Moreover, snowfall has increased when the climate warmed, but the ice sheet lost mass nonetheless; increased accumulation in the ice sheet's center has not been sufficient to counteract increased melting and flow near the edges. Most documented forcings and ice-sheet responses spanned periods of several thousand years, but limited data also show rapid response to rapid forcings. In particular, regions near the ice margin have responded within decades. However, major changes of central regions of the ice sheet are thought to require centuries to millennia. The paleoclimatic record does not yet strongly constrain how rapidly a major shrinkage or nearly complete loss of the ice sheet could occur. The evidence suggests nearly total ice-sheet loss may result from warming of more than a few degrees above mean 20th century values, but this threshold is poorly defined (perhaps as little as 2 °C or more than 7 °C). Paleoclimatic records are sufficiently sketchy that the ice sheet may have grown temporarily in response to warming, or changes may have been induced by factors other than temperature, without having been recorded.

The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

2014-05-01

Abrupt climate changes did not only happen during glacials but also during interglacials such as the Holocene. Marine sediments provide evidence for the periodic occurrence of centennial-scale events with enhanced iceberg discharge during the past 11.000 years (Bond et al., 2001). These events were chronologically linked to reduced solar activity as reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes (Bond et al., 2001), indicating that even an external forcing that is considered to be small, has a potential impact on climate due to several feedback mechanisms (Renssen et al., 2006). The interactions between climate and solar irradiance have been investigated using numerical models (e.g. Haigh, 1996; Renssen et al, 2006), but so far without dynamically computing the Greenland ice sheet and iceberg calving. Thus, the impact of solar variations on iceberg discharge and the underlying mechanisms have not been analysed so far. To analyse the effect of variations in solar activity on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the iceberg calving, as well as possible feedback mechanisms that enhance the impact of the total solar irradiance, we use the earth system model of intermediate complexity (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al., 2013), coupled to the ice sheet/ice shelf model GRISLI (Ritz et al., 2001) and to a dynamic-thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2009, Bügelmayer et al., 2014) to perform transient experiments of the last 6000 years. The experiments are conducted applying reconstructed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic aerosol loads, orbital parameters and variations in the total solar irradiance. We present the response of the coupled model to different solar irradiance scenarios to evaluate modeled GIS sensitivity to relatively modest variations in radiative forcing. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of the model results on the chosen model sensitivity. References: Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., … Bonani, G. (2001): Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5549), 2130-6. doi:10.1126/science.1065680 Bügelmayer, M., Roche, D.M., Renssen, H. (2014): How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? - A model study with a fully coupled ice sheet-climate model. The Cryosphere Discussions 8, 187-228. Haigh, J. D. (1996): The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. Jongma, J.I., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Renssen, H., (2009): The effect of dynamic-thermodynamic icebergs on the Southern Ocean climate in a three-dimensional model. Ocean Modelling 26, 104-113. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Muscheler, R., & Branch, R. (2006): Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing. Climate of the Past, 2, 79-90. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C.(2001): Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 31943-31964, doi:10.1029/2001JD900232. Roche, D.M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., Ritz, C. (2013): Adding a dynamical cryosphere into iLOVECLIM (version 1.0) - Part 1: Coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 6, 5215-5249.

Uncertainty quantification of Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise using the fast Elementary Thermomechanical Ice Sheet (f.ETISh) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulthuis, Kevin; Arnst, Maarten; Pattyn, Frank; Favier, Lionel

2017-04-01

Uncertainties in sea-level rise projections are mostly due to uncertainties in Antarctic ice-sheet predictions (IPCC AR5 report, 2013), because key parameters related to the current state of the Antarctic ice sheet (e.g. sub-ice-shelf melting) and future climate forcing are poorly constrained. Here, we propose to improve the predictions of Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour using new uncertainty quantification methods. As opposed to ensemble modelling (Bindschadler et al., 2013) which provides a rather limited view on input and output dispersion, new stochastic methods (Le Maître and Knio, 2010) can provide deeper insight into the impact of uncertainties on complex system behaviour. Such stochastic methods usually begin with deducing a probabilistic description of input parameter uncertainties from the available data. Then, the impact of these input parameter uncertainties on output quantities is assessed by estimating the probability distribution of the outputs by means of uncertainty propagation methods such as Monte Carlo methods or stochastic expansion methods. The use of such uncertainty propagation methods in glaciology may be computationally costly because of the high computational complexity of ice-sheet models. This challenge emphasises the importance of developing reliable and computationally efficient ice-sheet models such as the f.ETISh ice-sheet model (Pattyn, 2015), a new fast thermomechanical coupled ice sheet/ice shelf model capable of handling complex and critical processes such as the marine ice-sheet instability mechanism. Here, we apply these methods to investigate the role of uncertainties in sub-ice-shelf melting, calving rates and climate projections in assessing Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise for the next centuries using the f.ETISh model. We detail the methods and show results that provide nominal values and uncertainty bounds for future sea-level rise as a reflection of the impact of the input parameter uncertainties under consideration, as well as a ranking of the input parameter uncertainties in the order of the significance of their contribution to uncertainty in future sea-level rise. In addition, we discuss how limitations posed by the available information (poorly constrained data) pose challenges that motivate our current research.

Data assimilation and prognostic whole ice sheet modelling with the variationally derived, higher order, open source, and fully parallel ice sheet model VarGlaS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brinkerhoff, D. J.; Johnson, J. V.

2013-07-01

We introduce a novel, higher order, finite element ice sheet model called VarGlaS (Variational Glacier Simulator), which is built on the finite element framework FEniCS. Contrary to standard procedure in ice sheet modelling, VarGlaS formulates ice sheet motion as the minimization of an energy functional, conferring advantages such as a consistent platform for making numerical approximations, a coherent relationship between motion and heat generation, and implicit boundary treatment. VarGlaS also solves the equations of enthalpy rather than temperature, avoiding the solution of a contact problem. Rather than include a lengthy model spin-up procedure, VarGlaS possesses an automated framework for model inversion. These capabilities are brought to bear on several benchmark problems in ice sheet modelling, as well as a 500 yr simulation of the Greenland ice sheet at high resolution. VarGlaS performs well in benchmarking experiments and, given a constant climate and a 100 yr relaxation period, predicts a mass evolution of the Greenland ice sheet that matches present-day observations of mass loss. VarGlaS predicts a thinning in the interior and thickening of the margins of the ice sheet.

Monitoring Antarctic ice sheet surface melting with TIMESAT algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Y.; Cheng, X.; Li, X.; Liang, L.

2011-12-01

Antarctic ice sheet contributes significantly to the global heat budget by controlling the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum at the surface-atmosphere interface, which directly influence the global atmospheric circulation and climate change. Ice sheet melting will cause snow humidity increase, which will accelerate the disintegration and movement of ice sheet. As a result, detecting Antarctic ice sheet melting is essential for global climate change research. In the past decades, various methods have been proposed for extracting snowmelt information from multi-channel satellite passive microwave data. Some methods are based on brightness temperature values or a composite index of them, and others are based on edge detection. TIMESAT (Time-series of Satellite sensor data) is an algorithm for extracting seasonality information from time-series of satellite sensor data. With TIMESAT long-time series brightness temperature (SSM/I 19H) is simulated by Double Logistic function. Snow is classified to wet and dry snow with generalized Gaussian model. The results were compared with those from a wavelet algorithm. On this basis, Antarctic automatic weather station data were used for ground verification. It shows that this algorithm is effective in ice sheet melting detection. The spatial distribution of melting areas(Fig.1) shows that, the majority of melting areas are located on the edge of Antarctic ice shelf region. It is affected by land cover type, surface elevation and geographic location (latitude). In addition, the Antarctic ice sheet melting varies with seasons. It is particularly acute in summer, peaking at December and January, staying low in March. In summary, from 1988 to 2008, Ross Ice Shelf and Ronnie Ice Shelf have the greatest interannual variability in amount of melting, which largely determines the overall interannual variability in Antarctica. Other regions, especially Larsen Ice Shelf and Wilkins Ice Shelf, which is in the Antarctic Peninsula region, have relative stable and consistent melt occurrence from year to year.

Climate change and trace gases.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

2007-07-15

Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

Polar Ice Sheets Drive Paleohydroclimate Affecting Terrestrial Plant Distribution and CO2 Exchange Potential during the Upper Carboniferous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Poulsen, C. J.; Montanez, I. P.; McElwain, J.; Wilson, J. P.; Hren, M. T.

2016-12-01

Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration and presence or absence of polar ice sheets simulated for 310 mya using the GENESIS model show changes in terrestrial temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration at mid and lower latitudes. Classifying the data into Holdridge life zones for simulations with 280, 560, and 1120 ppm CO2, in the presence of a southern Gondwanan ice sheet resulted in progressive increase of cool temperate, humid-to-subhumid and tropical subhumid zones. Without the ice sheet, subtropical subhumid to semiarid zones expanded. Simulation results show that approximately 50% of the land area was classified as polar or tundra followed by 35 to 42%, depending on the scenario, classified as sub-tropical semiarid-to-subhumid. Only 5-8% were classified as temperate humid-to-subhumid or tropical humid-to-perhumid. Also, the absence of ice sheets reduced the moister sub-climates, such as within the tropical climate zone. Because different plant assemblages dominated each climate zone, for example cordaitaleans in the subtropical and medullosans and lycophytes in the tropics, physiological differences in these plants may have resulted in unequal CO2 exchange feedbacks to the atmosphere during climate shifts. Previous physiological modeling based on plant foliar traits indicates that late Paleozoic plant species differed in CO2 uptake capacity with highest sensitivity to water availability during periods with low atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies that vegetation climate feedbacks during this period may have been non-uniform during climate change events. Inference of plant contribution to climate forcing must rely on understanding geographic distribution of affected vegetation, inherent vegetation physiological properties, and antecedent atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results indicate that seasonally dry climates prevailed in the low-latitude land area, and that slightly cooler temperatures than today must be considered. This study also shows that mechanistic modeling of paleoclimate should consider the spatial distribution of different plant species, the distribution of water availability for plants within climate zones, and the physiological attributes of species dominating paleolandscapes at specific geologic time periods.

Radar Detection of Layering in Ice: Experiments on a Constructed Layered Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, L. M.; Koenig, L.; Courville, Z.; Ghent, R. R.; Koutnik, M. R.

2016-12-01

The polar caps and glaciers of both Earth and Mars display internal layering that preserves a record of past climate. These layers are apparent both in optical datasets (high resolution images, core samples) and in ground penetrating radar (GPR) data. On Mars, the SHARAD (Shallow Radar) radar on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter shows fine layering that changes spatially and with depth across the polar caps. This internal layering has been attributed to changes in fractional dust contamination due to obliquity-induced climate variations, but there are other processes that can lead to internal layers visible in radar data. In particular, terrestrial sounding of ice sheets compared with core samples have revealed that ice density and composition differences account for the majority of the radar reflectors. The large cold rooms and ice laboratory facility at the U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) provide us a unique opportunity to construct experimental ice sheets in a controlled setting and measure them with radar. In a CRREL laboratory, we constructed a layered ice sheet that is 3-m deep with a various snow and ice layers with known dust concentrations (using JSC Mars-1 basaltic simulant) and density differences. These ice sheets were profiled using a commercial GPR, at frequencies of 200, 400 and 900 MHz, to determine how the radar profile changes due to systematic and known changes in snow and ice layers, including layers with sub-wavelength spacing. We will report results from these experiments and implications for interpreting radar-detected layering in ice on Earth and Mars.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise.

PubMed

Shannon, Sarah R; Payne, Antony J; Bartholomew, Ian D; van den Broeke, Michiel R; Edwards, Tamsin L; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W F; Nienow, Peter W; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F; Smeets, C J P Paul; Sole, Andrew J; van de Wal, Roderik S W; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-08-27

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Reconstruction of North American drainage basins and river discharge since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickert, Andrew D.

2016-11-01

Over the last glacial cycle, ice sheets and the resultant glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) rearranged river systems. As these riverine threads that tied the ice sheets to the sea were stretched, severed, and restructured, they also shrank and swelled with the pulse of meltwater inputs and time-varying drainage basin areas, and sometimes delivered enough meltwater to the oceans in the right places to influence global climate. Here I present a general method to compute past river flow paths, drainage basin geometries, and river discharges, by combining models of past ice sheets, glacial isostatic adjustment, and climate. The result is a time series of synthetic paleohydrographs and drainage basin maps from the Last Glacial Maximum to present for nine major drainage basins - the Mississippi, Rio Grande, Colorado, Columbia, Mackenzie, Hudson Bay, Saint Lawrence, Hudson, and Susquehanna/Chesapeake Bay. These are based on five published reconstructions of the North American ice sheets. I compare these maps with drainage reconstructions and discharge histories based on a review of observational evidence, including river deposits and terraces, isotopic records, mineral provenance markers, glacial moraine histories, and evidence of ice stream and tunnel valley flow directions. The sharp boundaries of the reconstructed past drainage basins complement the flexurally smoothed GIA signal that is more often used to validate ice-sheet reconstructions, and provide a complementary framework to reduce nonuniqueness in model reconstructions of the North American ice-sheet complex.

Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes.

PubMed

Krinner, G; Mangerud, J; Jakobsson, M; Crucifix, M; Ritz, C; Svendsen, J I

2004-01-29

Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz. Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas blocked the large northbound Russian rivers. Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents-Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.

On the Reconstruction of Palaeo-Ice Sheets: Recent Advances and Future Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jacob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.;

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jakob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.; Jakobsson, Martin; Kirchner, Nina; Livingstone, Stephen J.; Margold, Martin; Murton, Julian B.; Noormets, Riko; Peltier, W. Richard; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Piper, David J. W.; Preusser, Frank; Renssen, Hans; Roberts, David H.; Roche, Didier M.; Saint-Ange, Francky; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Teller, James T.

2015-01-01

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.

Abrupt Shift in the Observed Runoff from the Southwest Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlstrom, A.; Petersen, D.; Box, J.; Langen, P. P.; Citterio, M.

2016-12-01

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet has contributed significantly to sea level rise in recent years and is considered a crucial parameter when estimating the impact of future climate change. Few observational records of sufficient length exist to validate surface mass balance models, especially the estimated runoff. Here we present an observation time series from 1975-2014 of discharge from a large proglacial lake, Tasersiaq, in West Greenland (66.3°N, 50.4°W) with a mainly ice-covered catchment. We argue that the discharge time series is representative measure of ice sheet runoff, making it the only observational record of runoff to exceed the 30-year period needed to assess the climatological state of the ice sheet. We proceed to isolate the runoff part of the signal from precipitation and identified glacial lake outburst floods from a small sub-catchment. Similarly, the impact from major volcanic eruptions is clearly identified. We examine the trend and annual variability in the annual discharge, relating it to likely atmospheric forcing mechanisms and compare the observational time series with modelled runoff from the regional climate model HIRHAM.

Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

Abrupt shift in the observed runoff from the southwestern Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Ahlstrøm, Andreas P.; Petersen, Dorthe; Langen, Peter L.; Citterio, Michele; Box, Jason E.

2017-01-01

The recent decades of accelerating mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet have arisen from an increase in both surface meltwater runoff and ice flow discharge from tidewater glaciers. Despite the role of the Greenland ice sheet as the dominant individual cryospheric contributor to sea level rise in recent decades, no observational record of its mass loss spans the 30-year period needed to assess its climatological state. We present for the first time a 40-year (1975–2014) time series of observed meltwater discharge from a >6500-km2 catchment of the southwestern Greenland ice sheet. We find that an abrupt 80% increase in runoff occurring between the 1976–2002 and 2003–2014 periods is due to a shift in atmospheric circulation, with meridional exchange events occurring more frequently over Greenland, establishing the first observation-based connection between ice sheet runoff and climate change. PMID:29242827

Decadal-scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.

2013-06-01

The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.

Neoproterozoic 'snowball Earth' simulations with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model.

PubMed

Hyde, W T; Crowley, T J; Baum, S K; Peltier, W R

2000-05-25

Ice sheets may have reached the Equator in the late Proterozoic era (600-800 Myr ago), according to geological and palaeomagnetic studies, possibly resulting in a 'snowball Earth'. But this period was a critical time in the evolution of multicellular animals, posing the question of how early life survived under such environmental stress. Here we present computer simulations of this unusual climate stage with a coupled climate/ice-sheet model. To simulate a snowball Earth, we use only a reduction in the solar constant compared to present-day conditions and we keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations near present levels. We find rapid transitions into and out of full glaciation that are consistent with the geological evidence. When we combine these results with a general circulation model, some of the simulations result in an equatorial belt of open water that may have provided a refugium for multicellular animals.

Radiation Climatology of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Greenland Climate Network Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steffen, Konrad; Box, Jason

2003-01-01

The magnitude of shortwave and longwave dative fluxes are critical to surface energy balance variations over the Greenland ice sheet, affecting many aspects of its climate, including melt rates, the nature of low-level temperature inversions, the katabatic wind regime and buoyant stability of the atmosphere. Nevertheless, reliable measurements of the radiative fluxes over the ice sheet are few in number, and have been of limited duration and areal distribution (e.g. Ambach, 1960; 1963, Konzelmann et al., 1994, Harding et al., 1995, Van den Broeke, 1996). Hourly GC-Net radiation flux measurements spanning 1995-2001 period have been used to produce a monthly dataset of surface radiation balance components. The measurements are distributed widely across Greenland and incorporate multiple sensors

Late Holocene spatio-temporal variability of the south Greenland Ice Sheet and adjacent mountain glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, G.; Carlson, A. E.; Rood, D. H.; Axford, Y.

2017-12-01

The late Holocene, with its spatially complex pattern of centennial-scale climate variation, is an ideal time period to test the response of the cryosphere to atmospheric and oceanic temperature changes. The south Greenland Ice Sheet (sGrIS), with its proximity to areas of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and a large spectrum of glaciological regimes over a relatively small area, provides an excellent location to examine the spatial heterogeneity of ice-sheet and glacier responses to climate change. Here, we will present 50 Be-10 surface exposure ages from eight moraines in six locations around the margin of the sGrIS. These moraines are located just outboard of historical moraines, and will therefore allow us to constrain the timing of the most extensive prehistoric late-Holocene advance and retreat of ice margins draining the sGrIS and independent valley glaciers. The dataset includes both marine- and land-terminating glaciers draining the sGrIS, the low-altitude Qassimiut lobe, the high-altitude alpine Julianhåb ice cap and isolated valley glaciers. This diverse dataset will allow us to determine to what extent late-Holocene centennial-scale behavior of the ice-sheet and glacier margins were synchronous, perhaps in response to an external climate forcing, or more stochastic, governed instead by local factors such as basal thermal regime, bedrock topography, or microclimates. This has implications for understanding the forcings and responses of cryospheric changes at timescales relevant to human society. In addition to providing context for paleoclimatic and glacial geologic investigations, this work will inform future sea-level projections by providing targets for validating high-resolution ice-sheet and glacier models.

On the long-term memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogozhina, I.; Martinec, Z.; Hagedoorn, J. M.; Thomas, M.; Fleming, K.

2011-03-01

In this study, the memory of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with respect to its past states is analyzed. According to ice core reconstructions, the present-day GIS reflects former climatic conditions dating back to at least 250 thousand years before the present (kyr BP). This fact must be considered when initializing an ice sheet model. The common initialization techniques are paleoclimatic simulations driven by atmospheric forcing inferred from ice core records and steady state simulations driven by the present-day or past climatic conditions. When paleoclimatic simulations are used, the information about the past climatic conditions is partly reflected in the resulting present-day state of the GIS. However, there are several important questions that need to be clarified. First, for how long does the model remember its initial state? Second, it is generally acknowledged that, prior to 100 kyr BP, the longest Greenland ice core record (GRIP) is distorted by ice-flow irregularities. The question arises as to what extent do the uncertainties inherent in the GRIP-based forcing influence the resulting GIS? Finally, how is the modeled thermodynamic state affected by the choice of initialization technique (paleo or steady state)? To answer these questions, a series of paleoclimatic and steady state simulations is carried out. We conclude that (1) the choice of an ice-covered initial configuration shortens the initialization simulation time to 100 kyr, (2) the uncertainties in the GRIP-based forcing affect present-day modeled ice-surface topographies and temperatures only slightly, and (3) the GIS forced by present-day climatic conditions is overall warmer than that resulting from a paleoclimatic simulation.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-02-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change -- equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Storage and release of organic carbon from glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hood, Eran; Battin, Tom J.; Fellman, Jason; O'Neel, Shad; Spencer, Robert G. M.

2015-01-01

Polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers, which cover roughly 11% of the Earth's land surface, store organic carbon from local and distant sources and then release it to downstream environments. Climate-driven changes to glacier runoff are expected to be larger than climate impacts on other components of the hydrological cycle, and may represent an important flux of organic carbon. A compilation of published data on dissolved organic carbon from glaciers across five continents reveals that mountain and polar glaciers represent a quantitatively important store of organic carbon. The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the repository of most of the roughly 6 petagrams (Pg) of organic carbon stored in glacier ice, but the annual release of glacier organic carbon is dominated by mountain glaciers in the case of dissolved organic carbon and the Greenland Ice Sheet in the case of particulate organic carbon. Climate change contributes to these fluxes: approximately 13% of the annual flux of glacier dissolved organic carbon is a result of glacier mass loss. These losses are expected to accelerate, leading to a cumulative loss of roughly 15 teragrams (Tg) of glacial dissolved organic carbon by 2050 due to climate change — equivalent to about half of the annual flux of dissolved organic carbon from the Amazon River. Thus, glaciers constitute a key link between terrestrial and aquatic carbon fluxes, and will be of increasing importance in land-to-ocean fluxes of organic carbon in glacierized regions.

Toward a Tighter Coupling between Models and Observations of Arctic Energy Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

L'Ecuyer, T. S.

2016-12-01

The Arctic climate is changing more rapidly than almost anywhere else on Earth owing to a number of unique feedbacks that locally amplify the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations. While the basic theory behind these feedback mechanisms has been known for a long time, current climate models still struggle to capture observed rates of sea ice decline and ice sheet melt. This may be explained, at least partially, by a lack of observational constraints on cloud and precipitation processes owing to the challenges of making sustained, high quality atmospheric measurements in this inhospitable region. This presentation will introduce a new multi-satellite, multi-model combined Arctic dataset for probing the state of the Arctic climate and documenting and improving prediction models. Recent satellite-based reconstructions of the Arctic energy budget and its annual cycle contained within this dataset will used to demonstrate that many climate models exhibit significant biases in several key energy flows in the region. These biases, in turn, lead to discrepancies in both the magnitude and seasonality of the implied heat transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes. The potential impacts of these biases on the surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet will be explored. New estimates of downwelling radiative fluxes that explicitly account for the effects of super-cooled liquid water observed by new active satellite sensors will be used to drive a regional ice sheet model to assess the sensitivity of ice sheet dynamical processes to uncertainties in surface radiation balance.

Science support for the Earth radiation budget sensor on the Nimbus-7 spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, A. P.

1982-01-01

Experimental data supporting the Earth radiation budget sensor on the Nimbus 7 Satellite is given. The data deals with the empirical relations between radiative flux, cloudiness, and other meteorological parameters; response of a zonal climate ice sheet model to the orbital perturbations during the quaternary ice ages; and a simple parameterization for ice sheet ablation rate.

Physical conditions at the base of a fast moving antarctic ice stream.

PubMed

Engelhardt, H; Humphrey, N; Kamb, B; Fahnestock, M

1990-04-06

Boreholes drilled to the bottom of ice stream B in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet reveal that the base of the ice stream is at the melting point and the basal water pressure is within about 1.6 bars of the ice overburden pressure. These conditions allow the rapid ice streaming motion to occur by basal sliding or by shear deformation of unconsolidated sediments that underlie the ice in a layer at least 2 meters thick. The mechanics of ice streaming plays a role in the response of the ice sheet to climatic change.

Growth of Greenland ice sheet - Interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay

1989-01-01

An observed 0.23 m/year thickening of the Greenland ice sheet indicates a 25 percent to 45 percent excess ice accumulation over the amount required to balance the outward ice flow. The implied global sea-level depletion is 0.2 to 0.4 mm/year, depending on whether the thickening is only recent (5 to 10 years) or longer term (less than 100 years). If there is a similar imbalance in the northern 60 percent of the ice-sheet area, the depletion is 0.35 to 0.7 mm/year. Increasing ice thickness suggests that the precipitation is higher than the long-term average; higher precipitation may be a characteristic of warmer climates in polar regions.

Modelling the enigmatic Late Pliocene Glacial Event - Marine Isotope Stage M2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Tindall, Julia C.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Pickering, Steven J.

2015-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch (5.2 to 2.58 Ma) has often been targeted to investigate the nature of warm climates. However, climate records for the Pliocene exhibit significant variability and show intervals that apparently experienced a cooler than modern climate. Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 (~ 3.3 Ma) is a globally recognisable cooling event that disturbs an otherwise relatively (compared to present-day) warm background climate state. It remains unclear whether this event corresponds to significant ice sheet build-up in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Estimates of sea level for this interval vary, and range from modern values to estimates of 65 m sea level fall with respect to present day. Here we implement plausible M2 ice sheet configurations into a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model to test the hypothesis that larger-than-modern ice sheet configurations may have existed at M2. Climate model results are compared with proxy climate data available for M2 to assess the plausibility of each ice sheet configuration. Whilst the outcomes of our data/model comparisons are not in all cases straight forward to interpret, there is little indication that results from model simulations in which significant ice masses have been prescribed in the Northern Hemisphere are incompatible with proxy data from the North Atlantic, Northeast Arctic Russia, North Africa and the Southern Ocean. Therefore, our model results do not preclude the possibility of the existence of larger ice masses during M2 in the Northern or Southern Hemisphere. Specifically they are not able to discount the possibility of significant ice masses in the Northern Hemisphere during the M2 event, consistent with a global sea-level fall of between 40 m and 60 m. This study highlights the general need for more focused and coordinated data generation in the future to improve the coverage and consistency in proxy records for M2, which will allow these and future M2 sensitivity tests to be interrogated further.

Coupled Northern Hemisphere permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willeit, M.; Ganopolski, A.

2015-09-01

Permafrost influences a number of processes which are relevant for local and global climate. For example, it is well known that permafrost plays an important role in global carbon and methane cycles. Less is known about the interaction between permafrost and ice sheets. In this study a permafrost module is included in the Earth system model CLIMBER-2, and the coupled Northern Hemisphere (NH) permafrost-ice-sheet evolution over the last glacial cycle is explored. The model performs generally well at reproducing present-day permafrost extent and thickness. Modeled permafrost thickness is sensitive to the values of ground porosity, thermal conductivity and geothermal heat flux. Permafrost extent at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) agrees well with reconstructions and previous modeling estimates. Present-day permafrost thickness is far from equilibrium over deep permafrost regions. Over central Siberia and the Arctic Archipelago permafrost is presently up to 200-500 m thicker than it would be at equilibrium. In these areas, present-day permafrost depth strongly depends on the past climate history and simulations indicate that deep permafrost has a memory of surface temperature variations going back to at least 800 ka. Over the last glacial cycle permafrost has a relatively modest impact on simulated NH ice sheet volume except at LGM, when including permafrost increases ice volume by about 15 m sea level equivalent in our model. This is explained by a delayed melting of the ice base from below by the geothermal heat flux when the ice sheet sits on a porous sediment layer and permafrost has to be melted first. Permafrost affects ice sheet dynamics only when ice extends over areas covered by thick sediments, which is the case at LGM.

Study of elevation changes along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hvidegaard, S. M.; Sandberg, L.

2009-04-01

In recent years much research has focused on determining how the Greenland Ice Sheet is responding to the observed climate changes. There is wide agreement on the fact that the Ice Sheet is currently loosing mass, and studies have shown that the mass loss is found near the ice edge and that no significant changes are found in the central part of the Ice Sheet. As a part of European Space Agency's CryoSat Validation Experiment (CryoVEx) running from 2004 to 2008, the National Space Institute (DTU Space) measured the elevations along a profile crossing the Greenland Ice Sheet. The elevation observations were carried out in 2004, 2006 and 2008 using airborne laser altimetry from a Twin Otter aircraft. The observed profile follows the old EGIG line (Expédition Glaciologique au Groenland, measured in the 1950's) situated between 69-71N, heading nearly east-west. This unique dataset gives the opportunity to study elevation changes along the profile crossing the ice sheet. With this work, we outline the observed elevation changes from the different zones of the ice sheet. We furthermore compare elevation changes based on coincident ICESat and airborne laser altimeter data.

Cenozoic ice sheet history from East Antarctic Wilkes Land continental margin sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escutia, C.; De Santis, L.; Donda, F.; Dunbar, R.B.; Cooper, A. K.; Brancolini, Giuliano; Eittreim, S.L.

2005-01-01

The long-term history of glaciation along the East Antarctic Wilkes Land margin, from the time of the first arrival of the ice sheet to the margin, through the significant periods of Cenozoic climate change is inferred using an integrated geophysical and geological approach. We postulate that the first arrival of the ice sheet to the Wilkes Land margin resulted in the development of a large unconformity (WL-U3) between 33.42 and 30 Ma during the early Oligocene cooling climate trend. Above WL-U3, substantial margin progradation takes place with early glacial strata (e.g., outwash deposits) deposited as low-angle prograding foresets by temperate glaciers. The change in geometry of the prograding wedge across unconformity WL-U8 is interpreted to represent the transition, at the end of the middle Miocene "climatic optimum" (14-10 Ma), from a subpolar regime with dynamic ice sheets (i.e., ice sheets come and go) to a regime with persistent but oscillatory ice sheets. The steep foresets above WL-U8 likely consist of ice proximal sediments (i.e., water-lain till and debris flows) deposited when grounded ice-sheets extended into the shelf. On the continental rise, shelf progradation above WL-U3 results in an up-section increase in the energy of the depositional environment (i.e., seismic facies indicative of more proximal turbidite and of bottom contour current deposition from the deposition of the lower WL-S5 sequence to WL-S7). Maximum rates of sediment delivery to the rise occur during the development of sequences WL-S6 and WL-S7, which we infer to be of middle Miocene age. During deposition of the two uppermost sequences, WL-S8 and WL-S9, there is a marked decrease in the sediment supply to the lower continental rise and a shift in the depocenters to more proximal areas of the margin. We believe WL-S8 records sedimentation during the final transition from a dynamic to a persistent but oscillatory ice sheet in this margin (14-10 Ma). Sequence WL-S9 forms under a polar regime during the Pliocene-Pleistocene, when most sediment delivered to the margin is trapped in the outer shelf and slope-forming steep prograding wedges. During the warmer but still polar, Holocene, biogenic sediment accumulates quickly in deep inner-shelf basins during the high-stand intervals. These sediments contain an ultrahigh resolution (annual to millennial) record of climate variability. Validation of our inferences about the nature and timing of Wilkes Land glacial sequences can be achieved by deep sampling (i.e., using IODP-type techniques). The most complete record of the long-term history of glaciation in this margin can be obtained by sampling both (1) the shelf, which contains the direct (presence or no presence of ice) but low-resolution record of glaciation, and (2) the rise, which contains the distal (cold vs. warm) but more complete record of glaciation. The Wilkes Land margin is the only known Antarctic margin where the presumed "onset" of glaciation unconformity (WL-U3) can be traced from shelf to the abyssal plain, allowing links between the proximal and the distal records of glaciation to be established. Additionally, the eastern segment of the Wilkes Land margin may be more sensitive to climate change because the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is grounded below sea level. Therefore, the Wilkes Land margin is not only an ideal location to obtain the long-term EAIS history but also to obtain the shorter-term record of ice sheet fluctuations at times that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is thought to have been more stable (after 15 Ma-recent). ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Initiation and long-term instability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Gulick, Sean P S; Shevenell, Amelia E; Montelli, Aleksandr; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Smith, Catherine; Warny, Sophie; Bohaty, Steven M; Sjunneskog, Charlotte; Leventer, Amy; Frederick, Bruce; Blankenship, Donald D

2017-12-13

Antarctica's continental-scale ice sheets have evolved over the past 50 million years. However, the dearth of ice-proximal geological records limits our understanding of past East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) behaviour and thus our ability to evaluate its response to ongoing environmental change. The EAIS is marine-terminating and grounded below sea level within the Aurora subglacial basin, indicating that this catchment, which drains ice to the Sabrina Coast, may be sensitive to climate perturbations. Here we show, using marine geological and geophysical data from the continental shelf seaward of the Aurora subglacial basin, that marine-terminating glaciers existed at the Sabrina Coast by the early to middle Eocene epoch. This finding implies the existence of substantial ice volume in the Aurora subglacial basin before continental-scale ice sheets were established about 34 million years ago. Subsequently, ice advanced across and retreated from the Sabrina Coast continental shelf at least 11 times during the Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Tunnel valleys associated with half of these glaciations indicate that a surface-meltwater-rich sub-polar glacial system existed under climate conditions similar to those anticipated with continued anthropogenic warming. Cooling since the late Miocene resulted in an expanded polar EAIS and a limited glacial response to Pliocene warmth in the Aurora subglacial basin catchment. Geological records from the Sabrina Coast shelf indicate that, in addition to ocean temperature, atmospheric temperature and surface-derived meltwater influenced East Antarctic ice mass balance under warmer-than-present climate conditions. Our results imply a dynamic EAIS response with continued anthropogenic warming and suggest that the EAIS contribution to future global sea-level projections may be under-estimated.

Initiation and long-term instability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulick, Sean P. S.; Shevenell, Amelia E.; Montelli, Aleksandr; Fernandez, Rodrigo; Smith, Catherine; Warny, Sophie; Bohaty, Steven M.; Sjunneskog, Charlotte; Leventer, Amy; Frederick, Bruce; Blankenship, Donald D.

2017-12-01

Antarctica’s continental-scale ice sheets have evolved over the past 50 million years. However, the dearth of ice-proximal geological records limits our understanding of past East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) behaviour and thus our ability to evaluate its response to ongoing environmental change. The EAIS is marine-terminating and grounded below sea level within the Aurora subglacial basin, indicating that this catchment, which drains ice to the Sabrina Coast, may be sensitive to climate perturbations. Here we show, using marine geological and geophysical data from the continental shelf seaward of the Aurora subglacial basin, that marine-terminating glaciers existed at the Sabrina Coast by the early to middle Eocene epoch. This finding implies the existence of substantial ice volume in the Aurora subglacial basin before continental-scale ice sheets were established about 34 million years ago. Subsequently, ice advanced across and retreated from the Sabrina Coast continental shelf at least 11 times during the Oligocene and Miocene epochs. Tunnel valleys associated with half of these glaciations indicate that a surface-meltwater-rich sub-polar glacial system existed under climate conditions similar to those anticipated with continued anthropogenic warming. Cooling since the late Miocene resulted in an expanded polar EAIS and a limited glacial response to Pliocene warmth in the Aurora subglacial basin catchment. Geological records from the Sabrina Coast shelf indicate that, in addition to ocean temperature, atmospheric temperature and surface-derived meltwater influenced East Antarctic ice mass balance under warmer-than-present climate conditions. Our results imply a dynamic EAIS response with continued anthropogenic warming and suggest that the EAIS contribution to future global sea-level projections may be under-estimated.

An East Siberian ice shelf during the Late Pleistocene glaciations: Numerical reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colleoni, Florence; Kirchner, Nina; Niessen, Frank; Quiquet, Aurélien; Liakka, Johan

2016-09-01

A recent data campaign in the East Siberian Sea has revealed evidence of grounded and floating ice dynamics in regions of up to 1000 m water depth, and which are attributed to glaciations older than the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kyrs BP). The main hypothesis based on this evidence is that a small ice cap developed over Beringia and expanded over the East Siberian continental margin during some of the Late Pleistocene glaciations. Other similar evidence of ice dynamics that have been previously collected on the shallow continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean have been attributed to the penultimate glaciation, i.e. Marine Isotopes Stage 6 (≈140 kyrs BP). We use an ice sheet model, forced by two previously simulated MIS 6 glacial maximum climates, to carry out a series of sensitivity experiments testing the impact of dynamics and mass-balance related parameters on the geometry of the East Siberian ice cap and ice shelf. Results show that the ice cap developing over Beringia connects to the Eurasian ice sheet in all simulations and that its volume ranges between 6 and 14 m SLE, depending on the climate forcing. This ice cap generates an ice shelf of dimensions comparable with or larger than the present-day Ross ice shelf in West Antarctica. Although the ice shelf extent strongly depends on the ice flux through the grounding line, it is particularly sensitive to the choice of the calving and basal melting parameters. Finally, inhibiting a merging of the Beringia ice cap with the Eurasian ice sheet affects the expansion of the ice shelf only in the simulations where the ice cap fluxes are not large enough to compensate for the fluxes coming from the Eurasian ice sheet.

Sea-level feedback lowers projections of future Antarctic Ice-Sheet mass loss

PubMed Central

Gomez, Natalya; Pollard, David; Holland, David

2015-01-01

The stability of marine sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in a warming climate has been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise. Sea-level fall near the grounding line of a retreating marine ice sheet has a stabilizing influence on the ice sheets, and previous studies have established the importance of this feedback on ice age AIS evolution. Here we use a coupled ice sheet–sea-level model to investigate the impact of the feedback mechanism on future AIS retreat over centennial and millennial timescales for a range of emission scenarios. We show that the combination of bedrock uplift and sea-surface drop associated with ice-sheet retreat significantly reduces AIS mass loss relative to a simulation without these effects included. Sensitivity analyses show that the stabilization tends to be greatest for lower emission scenarios and Earth models characterized by a thin elastic lithosphere and low-viscosity upper mantle, as is the case for West Antarctica. PMID:26554381

Cordilleran Ice Sheet mass loss preceded climate reversals near the Pleistocene Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Goehring, B. M.; Osborn, G.; Margold, M.; Ward, B.; Bond, J.; Clarke, G. K. C.; Clague, J. J.; Lakeman, T.; Koch, J.; Caffee, M. W.; Gosse, J.; Stroeven, A. P.; Seguinot, J.; Heyman, J.

2017-11-01

The Cordilleran Ice Sheet (CIS) once covered an area comparable to that of Greenland. Previous geologic evidence and numerical models indicate that the ice sheet covered much of westernmost Canada as late as 12.5 thousand years ago (ka). New data indicate that substantial areas throughout westernmost Canada were ice free prior to 12.5 ka and some as early as 14.0 ka, with implications for climate dynamics and the timing of meltwater discharge to the Pacific and Arctic oceans. Early Bølling-Allerød warmth halved the mass of the CIS in as little as 500 years, causing 2.5 to 3.0 meters of sea-level rise. Dozens of cirque and valley glaciers, along with the southern margin of the CIS, advanced into recently deglaciated regions during the Bølling-Allerød and Younger Dryas.

A model of the Greenland ice sheet deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lecavalier, Benoit

The goal of this thesis is to improve our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and how it responds to climate change. This was achieved using ice core records to infer elevation changes of the GrIS during the Holocene (11.7 ka BP to Present). The inferred elevation changes show the response of the ice sheet interior to the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM; 9-5 ka BP) when temperatures across Greenland were warmer than present. These ice-core derived thinning curves act as a new set of key constraints on the deglacial history of the GrIS. Furthermore, a calibration was conducted on a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet, glacial isostatic adjustment, and relative sea-level model of GrIS evolution during the most recent deglaciation (21 ka BP to present). The model was data-constrained to a variety of proxy records from paleoclimate archives and present-day observations of ice thickness and extent.

Antarctic glacial history from numerical models and continental margin sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, P.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Cooper, A. K.; Huybrechts, P.

1999-01-01

The climate record of glacially transported sediments in prograded wedges around the Antarctic outer continental shelf, and their derivatives in continental rise drifts, may be combined to produce an Antarctic ice sheet history, using numerical models of ice sheet response to temperature and sea-level change. Examination of published models suggests several preliminary conclusions about ice sheet history. The ice sheet's present high sensitivity to sea-level change at short (orbital) periods was developed gradually as its size increased, replacing a declining sensitivity to temperature. Models suggest that the ice sheet grew abruptly to 40% (or possibly more) of its present size at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary, mainly as a result of its own temperature sensitivity. A large but more gradual middle Miocene change was externally driven, probably by development of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Polar Front, provided that a few million years' delay can be explained. The Oligocene ice sheet varied considerably in size and areal extent, but the late Miocene ice sheet was more stable, though significantly warmer than today's. This difference probably relates to the confining effect of the Antarctic continental margin. Present-day numerical models of ice sheet development are sufficient to guide current sampling plans, but sea-ice formation, polar wander, basal topography and ice streaming can be identified as factors meriting additional modelling effort in the future.

Layered Ice Near the South Pole of Mars

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-12

The two largest ice sheets in the inner solar system are here on Earth, Antarctica and Greenland. The third largest is at the South Pole of Mars and a small part of it is shown in this image from NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Much like the terrestrial examples, this ice sheet is layered and scientists refer to it as the South Polar layered deposits. The ice layers contain information about past climates on Mars and deciphering this record has been a major goal of Mars science for decades. This slope, near the ice sheet's edge, shows the internal layers that have this climate record. With stereo images, we can tell the heights of these layers so we can measure their thickness and try to unravel the climatic information they contain. (Be sure to view the digital terrain model for this observation.) The map is projected here at a scale of 25 centimeters (9.8 inches) per pixel. [The original image scale is 25.0 centimeters (9.8 inches) per pixel (with 1 x 1 binning); objects on the order of 75 centimeters (29.5 inches) across are resolved.] North is up. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22125

Evolution of supra-glacial lakes across the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundal, A. V.; Shepherd, A.; Nienow, P.; Hanna, E.; Palmer, S.; Huybrechts, P.

2009-04-01

We have used 268 cloud-free Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images spanning the 2003 and 2005-2007 melt seasons to study the seasonal evolution of supra-glacial lakes in three different regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Lake area estimates were obtained by developing an automated classification method for their identification based on 250 m resolution MODIS surface reflectance observations. Widespread supra-glacial lake formation and drainage is observed across the ice sheet, with a 2-3 weeks delay in the evolution of total supra-glacial lake area in the northern areas compared to the south-west. The onset of lake growth varies by up to one month inter-annually, and lakes form and drain at progressively higher altitudes during the melt season. A correlation was found between the annual peak in total lake area and modelled annual runoff across all study areas. Our results indicate that, in a future warmer climate (Meehl et al., 2007), Greenland supra-glacial lakes can be expected to form at higher altitudes and over a longer time period than is presently the case, expanding the area and time period over which connections between the ice sheet surface and base may be established (Das et al., 2008) with potential consequences for ice sheet discharge (Zwally et al., 2002). Das, S., Joughin, M., Behn, M., Howat, I., King, M., Lizarralde, D., & Bhatia, M. (2008). Fracture propagation to the base of the Greenland Ice Sheet during supra-glacial lake drainage. Science, 5877, 778-781. Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S.C.B., Watterson, I.G., Weaver, A.J. & Zhao, Z.C. (2007). Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Zwally, H.J., Abdalati, W., Herring, T., Larson, K., Saba, J. & Steffen, K. (2002). Surface Melt-Induced Acceleration of Greenland Ice-Sheet Flow. Science, 297, 218-221.

On the possibility of ice on Greenland during the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langebroek, Petra M.; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Kathrine Pedersen, Vivi; Nele Meckler, A.; Gasson, Edward

2017-04-01

The Eocene-Oligocene transition ( 34 Ma) is one of the major climate transitions of the Cenozoic era. Atmospheric CO2 decreased from the high levels of the Greenhouse world (>1000 ppm) to values of about 600-700 ppm in the early Oligocene. High latitude temperatures dropped by several degrees, causing a large-scale expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet. Concurrently, in the Northern Hemisphere, the inception of ice caps on Greenland is suggested by indirect evidence from ice-rafted debris and changes in erosional regime. However, ice sheet models have not been able to simulate extensive ice on Greenland under the warm climate of the Eocene-Oligocene transition. We show that elevated bedrock topography is key in solving this inconsistency. During the late Eocene / early Oligocene, East Greenland bedrock elevations were likely higher than today due to tectonic and deep-Earth processes related to the break-up of the North Atlantic and the position of the Icelandic plume. When allowing for higher initial bedrock topography, we do simulate a large ice cap on Greenland under the still relatively warm climate of the early Oligocene. Ice inception takes place at high elevations in the colder regions of North and Northeast Greenland; with the size of the ice cap being strongly dependent on the climate forcing and the bedrock topography applied.

Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2018-02-01

The presence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and reduced greenhouse gas concentrations during the Last Glacial Maximum fundamentally altered global ocean-atmosphere climate dynamics. Model simulations and palaeoclimate records suggest that glacial boundary conditions affected the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a dominant source of short-term global climate variability. Yet little is known about changes in short-term climate variability at mid- to high latitudes. Here we use a high-resolution water isotope record from West Antarctica to demonstrate that interannual to decadal climate variability at high southern latitudes was almost twice as large at the Last Glacial Maximum as during the ensuing Holocene epoch (the past 11,700 years). Climate model simulations indicate that this increased variability reflects an increase in the teleconnection strength between the tropical Pacific and West Antarctica, owing to a shift in the mean location of tropical convection. This shift, in turn, can be attributed to the influence of topography and albedo of the North American ice sheets on atmospheric circulation. As the planet deglaciated, the largest and most abrupt decline in teleconnection strength occurred between approximately 16,000 years and 15,000 years ago, followed by a slower decline into the early Holocene.

Development of a Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorthy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Stock, Larry V.

2010-01-01

Regional "clear sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C to 72+/-0.10 deg C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and to provide an IST dataset of Greenland for modelers that provides uncertainties, we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of daily "clear-sky" IST of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using AVHRR (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds, time-series of satellite IST do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products and biases will be calculated.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Temperature, Melt, and Mass Loss: 2000-2006

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Williams, Richard S., Jr.; Luthcke, Scott B.; DiGirolamo, Nocolo

2007-01-01

Extensive melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented by a variety of ground and satellite measurements in recent years. If the well-documented warming continues in the Arctic, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet will likely accelerate, contributing to sea-level rise. Modeling studies indicate that an annual or summer temperature rise of 1 C on the ice sheet will increase melt by 20-50% therefore, surface temperature is one of the most important ice-sheet parameters to study for analysis of changes in the mass balance of the ice-sheet. The Greenland Ice Sheet contains enough water to produce a rise in eustatic sea level of up to 7.0 m if the ice were to melt completely. However, even small changes (centimeters) in sea level would cause important economic and societal consequences in the world's major coastal cities thus it is extremely important to monitor changes in the ice-sheet surface temperature and to ultimately quantify these changes in terms of amount of sea-level rise. We have compiled a high-resolution, daily time series of surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, using the I-km resolution, clear-sky land-surface temperature (LST) standard product from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), from 2000 - 2006. We also use Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, averaged over 10-day periods, to measure change in mass of the ice sheet as it melt and snow accumulates. Surface temperature can be used to determine frequency of surface melt, timing of the start and the end of the melt season, and duration of melt. In conjunction with GRACE data, it can also be used to analyze timing of ice-sheet mass loss and gain.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

A climate model with cryodynamics and geodynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Le Treut, H.

1981-01-01

A simplified, zero-dimensional model of the climatic system is presented which attempts to incorporate mechanisms important on the time scale of glaciation cycles: 10,000 to 100,000 years. The ocean-atmosphere radiation balance, continental ice sheet plastic flow, and upper mantle viscous flow are taken into account, with stress on the interaction between the ice sheets and the upper mantle. The model exhibits free, self-sustained oscillations of an amplitude and period comparable to those found in the paleoclimatic record of glaciations, offering mild support for the idea that unforced oscillations can actually exist in the real climatic system itself. The careful study of the interplay between internal mechanisms and external forcing is held to represent an interesting challenge to the theory of ice ages.

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

IGLOO: an Intermediate Complexity Framework to Simulate Greenland Ice-Ocean Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrette, M.; Calov, R.; Beckmann, J.; Alexander, D.; Beyer, S.; Ganopolski, A.

2017-12-01

The Greenland ice-sheet is a major contributor to current and future sea level rise associated to climate warming. It is widely believed that over a century time scale, surface melting is the main driver of Greenland ice volume change, in contrast to melting by the ocean. It is due to relatively warmer air and less ice area exposed to melting by ocean water compared to Antarctica, its southern, larger twin. Yet most modeling studies do not have adequate grid resolution to represent fine-scale outlet glaciers and fjords at the margin of the ice sheet, where ice-ocean interaction occurs, and must use rather crude parameterizations to represent this process. Additionally, the ice-sheet area grounded below sea level has been reassessed upwards in the most recent estimates of bedrock elevation under the Greenland ice sheet, revealing a larger potential for marine-mediated melting than previously thought. In this work, we develop an original approach to estimate potential Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise from ocean melting, in an intermediate complexity framework, IGLOO. We use a medium-resolution (5km) ice-sheet model coupled interactively to a number of 1-D flowline models for the individual outlet glaciers. We propose a semi-objective methodology to derive 1-D glacier geometries from 2-D Greenland datasets, as well as preliminary results of coupled ice-sheet-glaciers simulations with IGLOO.

Coupled Long-Term Evolution of Climate and the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial and Implications for the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lofverstrom, M.; Lipscomb, W.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.

2017-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is expected to contribute increasingly to global sea level rise by the end of this century, and potentially several meters in this millennium, but still with considerable uncertainty. The rate of Greenland melt will impact on regional sea levels. The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 ka to 116 ka) is recognized as an important period for testing our knowledge of climate-ice sheet interactions in warm climate states. Although the LIG was discussed in the First Assessment Report of the IPCC, it gained more prominence in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment (AR4 and AR5) with reconstructions highlighting that global mean sea level was at least 5 m higher (but probably no more than 10 m higher) than present for several thousand years during the LIG. Model results assessed for the AR5 suggest a sea level contribution of 1.4 to 4.3 m from the GrIS. These model simulations, though, did not include all the feedbacks of the climate system and the GrIS. Here, we examine the response of the Arctic climate system and the GrIS in simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) fully coupled to the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), using a surface energy balance scheme and without bias corrections. The analysis focuses on how the GrIS responds to the imposed high boreal summer insolation of the LIG and in addition, to the long-term feedbacks of high-latitude vegetation changes. Results will highlight the evolution of the ice sheet and the surface mass balance (patterns of ablation and accumulation) as compared to data-based reconstructions for the LIG. We conclude with a discussion on how the LIG may be informative as a potential process analogue for the GrIS response for future centuries to come.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change.

PubMed

Gregory, J M; Huybrechts, P

2006-07-15

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5+/-0.9K in Greenland and 3.1+/-0.8K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7m.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

PubMed Central

Shannon, Sarah R.; Payne, Antony J.; Bartholomew, Ian D.; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; Edwards, Tamsin L.; Fettweis, Xavier; Gagliardini, Olivier; Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien; Goelzer, Heiko; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Huybrechts, Philippe; Mair, Douglas W. F.; Nienow, Peter W.; Perego, Mauro; Price, Stephen F.; Smeets, C. J. P. Paul; Sole, Andrew J.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; Zwinger, Thomas

2013-01-01

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet’s contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone. PMID:23940337

VISL: A Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Outreach and K-12 Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Cheng, D. L.; Perez, G.; Romero, V.; Saks, O.

2014-12-01

We present a prototype Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory (VISL) geared to K-12 classrooms and the general public, with the goal of improving climate literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. VISL will allow users to perform guided experiments using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine that simulates the near-term evolution of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. VISL users will access ISSM via a graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. Users select climate conditions and run time by moving graphic sliders then watch how a given region evolves in time under those conditions. Lesson plans will include conceptual background, instructions for table top experiments related to the concepts addressed in a given lesson, and a guide for performing model experiments and interpreting their results. Activities with different degrees of complexity will aim for consistency with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12), although they will not be labeled as such to encourage a broad user base. Activities will emphasize the development of physical intuition and critical thinking skills, understanding conceptual and computational models, as well as observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and mathematical analysis. At our present phase of development, we seek input from the greater science education and outreach communities regarding VISL's planned content, as well as additional features and topic areas that educators and students would find useful.

VISL: A Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory For Outreach and K-12 Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, D. L. C.; Halkides, D. J.; Larour, E. Y.; Moore, J.; Dunn, S.; Perez, G.

2015-12-01

We present an update on our developing Virtual Ice Sheet Laboratory (VISL). Geared to K-12 classrooms and the general public, VISL's main goal is to improve climate literacy, especially in regards to the crucial role of the polar ice sheets in Earth's climate and sea level. VISL will allow users to perform guided experiments using the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM), a state-of-the-art ice flow model developed at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and UC Irvine that simulates the near-term evolution of the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica. VISL users will access ISSM via a graphical interface that can be launched from a web browser on a computer, tablet or smart phone. Users select climate conditions and run time by moving graphic sliders then watch how a given region evolves in time under those conditions. Lesson plans will include conceptual background, instructions for table top experiments related to the concepts addressed in a given lesson, and a guide for performing model experiments and interpreting their results. Activities with different degrees of complexity will aim for consistency with NGSS Physical Science criteria for different grade bands (K-2, 3-5, 6-8, and 9-12), although they will not be labeled as such to encourage a broad user base. Activities will emphasize the development of physical intuition and critical thinking skills, understanding conceptual and computational models, as well as observation recording, concept articulation, hypothesis formulation and testing, and mathematical analysis. At our present phase of development, we seek input from the greater science education and outreach communities regarding VISL's planned content, as well as additional features and topic areas that educators and students would find useful.

Heinrich events modeled in transient glacial simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, Florian; Kapsch, Marie; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2017-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under debate, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We address open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The framework consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. To make these long simulations feasible, the atmosphere is accelerated by a factor of 10 relative to the other model components using a periodical-synchronous coupling technique. To disentangle effects of the Heinrich events and the deglaciation, we focus on the events occurring before the deglaciation. The modeled Heinrich events show a peak ice discharge of about 0.05 Sv and raise the sea level by 2.3 m on average. The resulting surface water freshening reduces the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and ocean heat release. The reduction in ocean heat release causes a sub-surface warming and decreases the air temperature and precipitation regionally and downstream into Eurasia. The surface elevation decrease of the ice sheet enhances moisture transport onto the ice sheet and thus increases precipitation over the Hudson Bay area, thereby accelerating the recovery after an event.

Antarctic ice sheet mass loss estimates using Modified Antarctic Mapping Mission surface flow observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Diandong; Leslie, Lance M.; Lynch, Mervyn J.

2013-03-01

The long residence time of ice and the relatively gentle slopes of the Antarctica Ice Sheet make basal sliding a unique positive feedback mechanism in enhancing ice discharge along preferred routes. The highly organized ice stream channels extending to the interior from the lower reach of the outlets are a manifestation of the role of basal granular material in enhancing the ice flow. In this study, constraining the model-simulated year 2000 ice flow fields with surface velocities obtained from InSAR measurements permits retrieval of the basal sliding parameters. Forward integrations of the ice model driven by atmospheric and oceanic parameters from coupled general circulation models under different emission scenarios provide a range of estimates of total ice mass loss during the 21st century. The total mass loss rate has a small intermodel and interscenario spread, rising from approximately -160 km3/yr at present to approximately -220 km3/yr by 2100. The accelerated mass loss rate of the Antarctica Ice Sheet in a warming climate is due primarily to a dynamic response in the form of an increase in ice flow speed. Ice shelves contribute to this feedback through a reduced buttressing effect due to more frequent systematic, tabular calving events. For example, by 2100 the Ross Ice Shelf is projected to shed 40 km3 during each systematic tabular calving. After the frontal section's attrition, the remaining shelf will rebound. Consequently, the submerged cross-sectional area will reduce, as will the buttressing stress. Longitudinal differential warming of ocean temperature contributes to tabular calving. Because of the prevalence of fringe ice shelves, oceanic effects likely will play a very important role in the future mass balance of the Antarctica Ice Sheet, under a possible future warming climate.

Variability of Surface Temperature and Melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet, 2000-2011

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino, C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2012-01-01

Enhanced melting along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data, have been documented for the Greenland Ice Sheet. Recently we developed a climate-quality data record of ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 1ST product -- http://modis-snow-ice.gsfc.nasa.gov. Using daily and mean monthly MODIS 1ST maps from the data record we show maximum extent of melt for the ice sheet and its six major drainage basins for a 12-year period extending from March of 2000 through December of 2011. The duration of the melt season on the ice sheet varies in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The short time of the study period (approximately 12 years) precludes an evaluation of statistically-significant trends. However the dataset provides valuable information on natural variability of IST, and on the ability of the MODIS instrument to capture changes in IST and melt conditions indifferent drainage basins of the ice sheet.

Climate Sensitivity Studies of the Greenland Ice Sheet Using Satellite AVHRR, SMMR, SSM/I and in Situ Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steffen, K.; Abdalati, W.; Stroeve, J.

1993-01-01

The feasibility of using satellite data for climate research over the Greenland ice sheet is discussed. In particular, we demonstrate the usefulness of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Local Area Coverage (LAC) and Global Area Coverage (GAC) data for narrow-band albedo retrieval. Our study supports the use of lower resolution AVHRR (GAC) data for process studies over most of the Greenland ice sheet. Based on LAC data time series analysis, we can resolve relative albedo changes on the order of 2-5%. In addition, we examine Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) passive microwave data for snow typing and other signals of climatological significance. Based on relationships between in situ measurements and horizontally polarized 19 and 37 GHz observations, wet snow regions are identified. The wet snow regions increase in aerial percentage from 9% of the total ice surface in June to a maximum of 26% in August 1990. Furthermore, the relationship between brightness temperatures and accumulation rates in the northeastern part of Greenland is described. We found a consistent increase in accumulation rate for the northeastern part of the ice sheet from 1981 to 1986.

Aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism beneath the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blankenship, Donald D.; Bell, Robin E.; Hodge, Steven M.; Brozena, John M.; Behrendt, John C.

1993-01-01

Although it is widely understood that the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would cause a global sea-level rise of 6 m, there continues to be considerable debate about the response of this ice sheet to climate change. The stability of the WAIS, which is characterized by a bed grounded well below sea level, may depend on geologically controlled conditions at the base, which are independent of climate. Ice streams moving up to 750 m/yr disperse material from the interior through to the oceans. As these ice streams tend to buffer the reservoir of slow-moving inland ice from exposure to oceanic degradation, understanding the ice-streaming process is important for evaluating WAIS stability. There is strong evidence that ice streams slide on a lubricating layer of water-saturated till. Development of this basal layer requires both water and easily eroded sediments. Active lithospheric extension may elevate regional heat flux, increase basal melting, and trigger ice streaming. If a geologically defined boundary with a sharp contrast in geothermal flux exists beneath the WAIS, ice streams may only be capable of operating as a buffer over a restricted region. Should ocean waters penetrate beyond this boundary, the ice-stream buffer would disappear, possibly triggering a collapse of the inland ice reservoir. Aerogeophysical evidence for active volcanism and elevated heat flux beneath the WAIS near the critical region where ice streaming begins is presented.

Rise in central west Greenland surface melt unprecedented over the last three centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trusel, Luke; Das, Sarah; Osman, Matthew; Evans, Matthew; Smith, Ben; McConnell, Joe; Noël, Brice; van den Broeke, Michiel

2017-04-01

Greenland Ice Sheet surface melting has intensified and expanded over the last several decades and is now a leading component of ice sheet mass loss. Here, we constrain the multi-century temporal evolution of surface melt across central west Greenland by quantifying layers of refrozen melt within well-dated firn and ice cores collected in 2014 and 2015, as well as from a core collected in 2004. We find significant agreement among ice core, satellite, and regional climate model melt datasets over recent decades, confirming the fidelity of the ice core melt stratigraphy as a reliable record of past variability in the magnitude of surface melt. We also find a significant correlation between the melt records derived from our new 100-m GC-2015 core (2436 m.a.s.l.) and the older (2004) 150-m D5 core (2472 m.a.s.l.) located 50 km to the southeast. This agreement demonstrates the robustness of the ice core-derived melt histories and the potential for reconstructing regional melt evolution from a single site, despite local variability in melt percolation and refreeze processes. Our array of upper percolation zone cores reveals that although the overall frequency of melt at these sites has not increased, the intensification of melt over the last three decades is unprecedented within at least the last 365 years. Utilizing the regional climate model RACMO 2.3, we show that this melt intensification is a nonlinear response to warming summer air temperatures, thus underscoring the heightened sensitivity of this sector of Greenland to further climate warming. Finally, we examine spatial correlations between the ice core melt records and modeled melt fields across the ice sheet to assess the broader representation of each ice core record. This analysis reveals wide-ranging significant correlations, including to modeled meltwater runoff. As such, our ice core melt records may furthermore offer unique, observationally-constrained insights into past variability in ice sheet mass loss.

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa

2017-07-01

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ~7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.

Using Climate Models to Evaluate Mechanisms of Glacial Inception

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglesby, Robert J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The initiation and subsequent growth of an ice sheet or large glacier is based on two primary factors: 1. Most fundamentally, a region must exist with a positive net snow accumulation, that is, cold season snowfall exceeds warm season snowmelt. Because snow can melt very rapidly, in a practical sense this probably means that little or no snow melt should occur in the warm season (mountain glaciers being one possible exception). 2. When sufficient ice builds in a region with a positive net snow accumulation, the ice will flow into adjoining regions with a negative mass balance. Feedbacks can also then arise between the emerging ice sheet and the overall climate, which, among other effects, may cause the mass balance in that region to turn positive. A key question is the relative importance of these two factors. In particular, is it possible for a large lowland region to experience a positive mass balance, such that the ice sheet can arise largely 'in-situ'? Or instead are uplands necessary, such that essentially mountain glaciers form first, and then, under the right conditions, grow and coalesce, eventually spreading out into the lowlands? This is probably the single most fundamental question to be addressed in the modeling of glacial inception. Other key questions then focus on how the (upland or low-land) positive mass balance is obtained at some times, but not others (the ice sheets are not continuously present). For Northern Hemisphere ice sheets in particular, what climatic conditions can lead to abundant winter snowfall in the Canadian Arctic and northern Labrador in conjunction with cool summertime conditions? Are both required, or will cool summer conditions alone suffice? Conversely, are a few years of abnormally heavy snowfall all that is required to trigger glacial inception? A major need at present is for carefully constructed climate model studies aimed at addressing these questions. A successful strategy will almost certainly require more than just a global model; while the global climate model might be necessary to properly simulate large-scale forcing, such models have insufficient spatial resolution to adequately address the roles of topography and the nature of the land surface. Necessary also is the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (in conjunction with a global model). Possible forcing mechanisms of Pleistocene ice ages are well known (e.g., orbital forcing; CO2 fluctuations) but we must understand and be able to successfully model the actual processes involved in glacial inception before we can fully understand the true roles played by these forcing mechanisms.

A view of Antarctic ice-sheet evolution from sea-level and deep-sea Isotope Changes During the Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, K.G.; Wright, J.D.; Katz, M.E.; Browning, J.V.; Cramer, B.S.; Wade, B.S.; Mizintseva, S.F.

2007-01-01

18O increase. This large ice sheet became a driver of climate change, not just a response to it, causing increased latitudinal thermal gradients and a spinning up of the oceans that, in turn, caused a dramatic reorganization of ocean circulation and chemistry.

Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet.

PubMed

Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

2013-04-23

Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth's climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate-lake-FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas.

Influence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse on Antarctic surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Ding, Qinghua; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

2015-06-01

Climate model simulations are used to examine the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) on the surface climate of Antarctica. The lowered topography following WAIS collapse produces anomalous cyclonic circulation with increased flow of warm, maritime air toward the South Pole and cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau toward the Ross Sea and Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Relative to the background climate, areas in East Antarctica that are adjacent to the WAIS warm, while substantial cooling (several °C) occurs over parts of West Antarctica. Anomalously low isotope-paleotemperature values at Mount Moulton, West Antarctica, compared with ice core records in East Antarctica, are consistent with collapse of the WAIS during the last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage 5e. More definitive evidence might be recoverable from an ice core record at Hercules Dome, East Antarctica, which would experience significant warming and positive oxygen isotope anomalies if the WAIS collapsed.

Recent Changes in Arctic Glaciers, Ice Caps, and the Greenland Ice Sheet: Cold Facts About Warm Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdalati, W.

2005-12-01

One of the major manifestations of Arctic change can be observed in the state of balance of Arctic glaciers and ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet. These ice masses are estimated to contain nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of ice, which is more than six times greater than all the water stored in the Earth's lakes, rivers, and snow combined and is the equivalent of over 7 meters of sea level. Most of these ice masses have been shrinking in recent in years, but their mass balance is highly variable on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. On the Greenland ice sheet most of the coastal regions have thinned substantially as melt has increased and some of its outlet glaciers have accelerated. Near the equilibrium line in West Greenland, we have seen evidence of summer acceleration that is linked to surface meltwater production, suggesting a relatively rapid response mechanism of the ice sheet change to a warming climate. At the same time, however, the vast interior regions of the Greenland ice sheet have shown little change or slight growth, as accumulation in these areas may have increased. Throughout much of the rest of the Arctic, many glaciers and ice caps have been shrinking in the past few decades, and in Canada and Alaska, the rate of ice loss seems to have accelerated during the late 1990s. These recent observations offer only a snapshot in time of the long-term behavior, but they are providing crucial information about the current state of ice mass balance and the mechanisms that control it in one of the most climatically sensitive regions on Earth. As we continue to learn more through a combination of remote sensing observations, in situ measurements and improved modeling capabilities, it is important that we coordinate and integrate these approaches effectively in order to predict future changes and their impact on sea level, freshwater discharge, and ocean circulation.

Radiocarbon chronology of the last deglaciation in the Baffin Bay reveals asynchronous melting of Arctic and Laurentide ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Rebecca; Kucera, Michal; Vogt, Christoph; Wacker, Lukas

2016-04-01

The transition from the last ice age into the Holocene interglacial was characterised by rapid retreat of North American ice sheets, discharging large quantities of meltwater into the Labrador Sea. Whereas the meltwater chronology of the Laurentide Ice Sheet is well documented, the deglacial history of the American Arctic ice sheets (Inuit Ice sheet and northern Greenland Ice Sheet) draining into the Labrador Sea via the Baffin Bay is less well constrained. Here we present the first high-resolution radiocarbon-dated deglacial records from the Canadian and Greenland margins of the central Baffin Bay. Sedimentological and geochemical data confirm the presence during Termination I of two events of enhanced delivery of detrital carbonate (Baffin Bay Detrital Carbonate Events) dated to 14.2-13.7 ka BP and 12.7-11 ka BP. The events are synchronous across the Baffin Bay and their mineralogical signature indicates a common source of detrital carbonate from the Canadian Arctic, with a synchronous clastic source proximal to Greenland. The events postdate Heinrich layers and their onset is not linked to Greenland temperature change. This indicates that the deglaciation of American Arctic ice sheets and associated meltwater discharge were decoupled from the dominant North Atlantic climate mode.

The response of fabric variations to simple shear and migration recrystallization

DOE PAGES

Kennedy, Joseph H.; Pettit, Erin C.

2015-06-01

The observable microstructures in ice are the result of many dynamic and competing processes. These processes are influenced by climate variables in the firn. Layers deposited in different climate regimes may show variations in fabric which can persist deep into the ice sheet; fabric may 'remember' these past climate regimes. In this paper, we model the evolution of fabric variations below the firn–ice transition and show that the addition of shear to compressive-stress regimes preserves the modeled fabric variations longer than compression-only regimes, because shear drives a positive feedback between crystal rotation and deformation. Even without shear, the modeled icemore » retains memory of the fabric variation for ~200 ka in typical polar ice-sheet conditions. Our model shows that temperature affects how long the fabric variation is preserved, but only affects the strain-integrated fabric evolution profile when comparing results straddling the thermal-activation-energy threshold (~–10°C). Even at high temperatures, migration recrystallization does not eliminate the modeled fabric's memory under most conditions. High levels of nearest-neighbor interactions will, however, eliminate the modeled fabric's memory more quickly than low levels of nearest-neighbor interactions. Finally, our model predicts that fabrics will retain memory of past climatic variations when subject to a wide variety of conditions found in polar ice sheets.« less

Satellite radar interferometry for monitoring ice sheet motion: application to an antarctic ice stream.

PubMed

Goldstein, R M; Engelhardt, H; Kamb, B; Frolich, R M

1993-12-03

Satellite radar interferometry (SRI) provides a sensitive means of monitoring the flow velocities and grounding-line positions of ice streams, which are indicators of response of the ice sheets to climatic change or internal instability. The detection limit is about 1.5 millimeters for vertical motions and about 4 millimeters for horizontal motions in the radar beam direction. The grounding line, detected by tidal motions where the ice goes afloat, can be mapped at a resolution of approximately 0.5 kilometer. The SRI velocities and grounding line of the Rutford Ice Stream, Antarctica, agree fairly well with earlier ground-based data. The combined use of SRI and other satellite methods is expected to provide data that will enhance the understanding of ice stream mechanics and help make possible the prediction of ice sheet behavior.

Damage Mechanics in the Community Ice Sheet Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitcomb, R.; Cathles, L. M. M., IV; Bassis, J. N.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Price, S. F.

2016-12-01

Half of the mass that floating ice shelves lose to the ocean comes from iceberg calving, which is a difficult process to simulate accurately. This is especially true in the large-scale ice dynamics models that couple changes in the cryosphere to climate projections. Damage mechanics provide a powerful technique with the potential to overcome this obstacle by describing how fractures in ice evolve over time. Here, we demonstrate the application of a damage model to ice shelves that predicts realistic geometries. We incorporated this solver into the Community Ice Sheet Model, a three dimensional ice sheet model developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The damage mechanics formulation that we use comes from a first principles-based evolution law for the depth of basal and surface crevasses and depends on the large scale strain rate, stress state, and basal melt. We show that under idealized conditions it produces ice tongue lengths that match well with observations for a selection of natural ice tongues, including Erebus, Drygalski, and Pine Island in Antarctica, as well as Petermann in Greenland. We also apply the model to more generalized ideal ice shelf geometries and show that it produces realistic calving front positions. Although our results are preliminary, the damage mechanics model that we developed provides a promising first principles method for predicting ice shelf extent and how the calving margins of ice shelves respond to climate change.

The build-up, configuration, and dynamical sensitivity of the Eurasian ice-sheet complex to Late Weichselian climatic and oceanic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Winsborrow, Monica; Stroeven, Arjen P.

2016-12-01

The Eurasian ice-sheet complex (EISC) was the third largest ice mass during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), after the Antarctic and North American ice sheets. Despite its global significance, a comprehensive account of its evolution from independent nucleation centres to its maximum extent is conspicuously lacking. Here, a first-order, thermomechanical model, robustly constrained by empirical evidence, is used to investigate the dynamics of the EISC throughout its build-up to its maximum configuration. The ice flow model is coupled to a reference climate and applied at 10 km spatial resolution across a domain that includes the three main spreading centres of the Celtic, Fennoscandian and Barents Sea ice sheets. The model is forced with the NGRIP palaeo-isotope curve from 37 ka BP onwards and model skill is assessed against collated flowsets, marginal moraines, exposure ages and relative sea-level history. The evolution of the EISC to its LGM configuration was complex and asynchronous; the western, maritime margins of the Fennoscandian and Celtic ice sheets responded rapidly and advanced across their continental shelves by 29 ka BP, yet the maximum aerial extent (5.48 × 106 km2) and volume (7.18 × 106 km3) of the ice complex was attained some 6 ka later at c. 22.7 ka BP. This maximum stand was short-lived as the North Sea and Atlantic margins were already in retreat whilst eastern margins were still advancing up until c. 20 ka BP. High rates of basal erosion are modelled beneath ice streams and outlet glaciers draining the Celtic and Fennoscandian ice sheets with extensive preservation elsewhere due to frozen subglacial conditions, including much of the Barents and Kara seas. Here, and elsewhere across the Norwegian shelf and North Sea, high pressure subglacial conditions would have promoted localised gas hydrate formation.

Effects of Drake Passage on the Ocean's Thermal and Mechanical Energy Budget in a Coupled AOGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Heydt, A. S.; Viebahn, J. P.

2016-12-01

During the Cenozoic Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from `greenhouse' to `icehouse' conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. The gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions and periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary ( 34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition ( 13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later ( 2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, must precondition the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Closing Drake Passage in ocean-only and coupled climate models under otherwise present-day boundary conditions has become a classic experiment, indicating that there exists a considerable uncertainty in the climate response of those models to a closed Drake Passage. Here we quantify the climate response to a closed Drake Passage in a state-of-the-art coupled climate model (CESM). We show that the ocean gateway mechanism is robust in the sense that the equatorward expansion of the Southern Ocean sub-polar gyres inevitably leads to widespread warming around Antarctica. Moreover, we provide a framework to characterise the ocean temperature response to a closed Drake Passage in terms of both the mechanical and thermal energy budget of the ocean.

Extensive retreat and re-advance of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during the Holocene.

PubMed

Kingslake, J; Scherer, R P; Albrecht, T; Coenen, J; Powell, R D; Reese, R; Stansell, N D; Tulaczyk, S; Wearing, M G; Whitehouse, P L

2018-06-01

To predict the future contributions of the Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise, numerical models use reconstructions of past ice-sheet retreat after the Last Glacial Maximum to tune model parameters 1 . Reconstructions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet have assumed that it retreated progressively throughout the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years or so) 2-4 . Here we show, however, that over this period the grounding line of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (which marks the point at which it is no longer in contact with the ground and becomes a floating ice shelf) retreated several hundred kilometres inland of today's grounding line, before isostatic rebound caused it to re-advance to its present position. Our evidence includes, first, radiocarbon dating of sediment cores recovered from beneath the ice streams of the Ross Sea sector, indicating widespread Holocene marine exposure; and second, ice-penetrating radar observations of englacial structure in the Weddell Sea sector, indicating ice-shelf grounding. We explore the implications of these findings with an ice-sheet model. Modelled re-advance of the grounding line in the Holocene requires ice-shelf grounding caused by isostatic rebound. Our findings overturn the assumption of progressive retreat of the grounding line during the Holocene in West Antarctica, and corroborate previous suggestions of ice-sheet re-advance 5 . Rebound-driven stabilizing processes were apparently able to halt and reverse climate-initiated ice loss. Whether these processes can reverse present-day ice loss 6 on millennial timescales will depend on bedrock topography and mantle viscosity-parameters that are difficult to measure and to incorporate into ice-sheet models.

Snow and ice in a changing hydrological world.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, M.F.

1983-01-01

Snow cover on land (especially in the Northern Hemisphere) and sea ice (especially in the Southern Hemisphere) vary seasonally, and this seasonal change has an important affect on the world climate because snow and sea ice reflect solar radiation efficiently and affect other heat flow processes between atmosphere and land or ocean. Glaciers, including ice sheets, store most of the fresh water on Earth, but change dimensions relatively slowly. There is no clear evidence that the glacier ice volume currently is declining, but more needs to be known about mountain glacier and ice sheet mass balances. -from Author

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Pliocene sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

PRISM3).Use of these different SSTswithin theHadley CentreGCM(GeneralCirculationModel) and BASISM (BritishAntarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model), consistently show large reductions of Pliocene Greenland ice volumes compared to modern. The changes in climate introduced by the use of different SST reconstructions do change the predicted ice volumes, mainly through precipitation feedbacks. However, the models show a relatively low sensitivity of modelled Greenland ice volumes to different mid-Piacenzian SST reconstructions, with the largest SST induced changes being 20% of Pliocene ice volume or less than a metre of sea-level rise.

Middle to late Holocene fluctuations of the Vindue glacier, an outlet glacier of the Greenland Ice Sheet, central East Greenland.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Hammer, S. K.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.; Hall, B. L.; Howley, J. A.; Wilcox, P.; Medford, A.

2014-12-01

The margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet are currently responding to present-day climate changes. Determining how the ice sheet margins have responded to past climate changes provides a means to understand how they may respond in the future. Here we present a multi-proxy record used to reconstruct the Holocene fluctuations of the Vindue glacier, an ice sheet outlet glacier in eastern Greenland. Lake sediment cores from Qiviut lake (informal name), located ~0.75 km from the present-day Vindue glacier margin contain a sharp transition from medium sand/coarse silt to laminated gyttja just prior to 6,340±130 cal yr BP. We interpret this transition to indicate a time when the Vindue glacier retreated sufficiently to cease glacial sedimentation into the lake basin. Above this contact the core contains laminated gyttja with prominent, ~0.5 cm thick, silt layers. 10Be ages of boulders on bedrock located between Qiviut lake and the present-day ice margin date to 6.81 ± 0.67 ka (n = 3), indicating the time of deglaciation. These ages also agree well with the radiocarbon age of the silt-gyttja transition in Qiviut lake cores. 10Be ages on boulders on bedrock located more proximal to the ice margin (~0.5 km) yield ages of 2.67 ± 0.18 ka (n = 2). These ages indicate either the continued recession of the ice margin during the late Holocene or an advance at this time. Boulders on the historical moraines show that ice retreated from the moraine by AD 1620 ± 20 yrs (n = 2). These results are in contrast with some areas of the western margin of the ice sheet where 10Be ages indicate that the ice sheet was behind its Historical limit from the middle Holocene (~6-7 ka) to Historical time. This may indicate that the eastern margin may have responded to late Holocene cooling more sensitively or that the advance associated with the Historical moraines overran any evidence of late Holocene fluctuations along the western margin of the ice sheet.

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

The influence of continental ice, atmospheric CO2, and land albedo on the climate of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broccoli, A. J.; Manabe, S.

1987-02-01

The contributions of expanded continental ice, reduced atmospheric CO2, and changes in land albedo to the maintenance of the climate of the last glacial maximum (LGM) are examined. A series of experiments is performed using an atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model in which these changes in boundary conditions are incorporated either singly or in combination. The model used has been shown to produce a reasonably realistic simulation of the reduced temperature of the LGM (Manabe and Broccoli 1985b). By comparing the results from pairs of experiments, the effects of each of these environmental changes can be determined. Expanded continental ice and reduced atmospheric CO2 are found to have a substantial impact on global mean temperature. The ice sheet effect is confined almost exclusively to the Northern Hemisphere, while lowered CO2 cools both hemispheres. Changes in land albedo over ice-free areas have only a minor thermal effect on a global basis. The reduction of CO2 content in the atmosphere is the primary contributor to the cooling of the Southern Hemisphere. The model sensitivity to both the ice sheet and CO2 effects is characterized by a high latitude amplification and a late autumn and early winter maximum. Substantial changes in Northern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation are found in response to LGM boundary conditions during winter. An amplified flow pattern and enhanced westerlies occur in the vicinity of the North American and Eurasian ice sheets. These alterations of the tropospheric circulation are primarily the result of the ice sheet effect, with reduced CO2 contributing only a slight amplification of the ice sheet-induced pattern.

The present-day climate of Greenland : a study with a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettema, J.

2010-04-01

Present-day climate of Greenland Over the past 20 years, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has warmed. This temperature increase can be explained by an increase in downwelling longwave radiation due to a warmer overlying atmosphere. These temperature changes are strongly correlated to changes in the large scale circulation over the ice sheet. Since 1990, the melt has also strongly increased along the ice margins, inducing significant increase in runoff. With no significant change found in the total precipitation, the GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decreased by 12 Gt yr-1 or 7 kg m-2 yr-1 since 1990. Locally, the SMB trend reaches -90 kg m-2 yr-1 at the western and eastern ice margins. These conclusions are drawn from a modelling study by Janneke Ettema, which discusses the present-day climate and surface mass balance of the GrIS. The emphasis of this research is on understanding the underlying physical processes. Using the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2/GR at high horizontal resolution (11km) has resulted in unprecedented detail in the ice sheet climatology and SMB. By incorporating processes such as percolation, retention and refreezing of meltwater in the surface parameterisation, the model explicitly calculates how these processes affect snow pack temperature, density and surface albedo. RACMO2/GR shows that the GrIS climate is spatially very variable. Characteristic for the ice sheet climate are the persistent katabatic winds and a quasi-permanent surface temperature deficit. Due to strong radiative cooling and turbulent heat transport towards the surface, the atmospheric boundary layer cools, providing optimal conditions for strong katabatic winds to occur. The strongest temperature deficit and wind speeds are found in the northeastern part of the ice sheet, whereas in the lower ablation zone the temperatures are more moderate due to surface melt and warm air advection. The high-resolution climate model revealed that the surface mass balance of the GrIS is 469 Gt yr-1, much higher than previously thought. Mass gain is dominated by snowfall (697 Gt yr-1) over rain (46 Gt yr-1), whereas mass loss is mainly controlled by runoff (248 Gt yr-1) and to a smaller extent by evaporation/sublimation (26 Gt yr-1). The largest accumulation rates are found at elevations below 2000 m in southeast Greenland, where local peaks occur of over 4000 kg m-2 yr-1. The ablation zone locally exhibits very strong SMB gradients with local mass loss of over 3000 kg m-2 yr-1 along the western ice margins. The results of RACMO2 for the Greenland ice sheet as presented in this thesis have greatly furthered our understanding of the coupling between atmospheric processes and the SMB of the GrIS. By using a high horizontal resolution of 11 km, RACMO2/GR displayed numerous interesting features that have not yet been addressed in this study, but which are definitely worth looking into. Examples are the regional momentum and heat budgets and the effect of the snow-free tundra on the ablation zone. If the horizontal model resolution could be downscaled to e.g. 5.5 km, it would open doors to apply RACMO2/GR to smaller ice caps, e.g. on Svalbard, Canada and Patagonia.

The evolution of pCO2, ice volume and climate during the middle Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Gavin L.; Lear, Caroline H.; Rae, James W. B.

2012-08-01

The middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (17-15 Ma; MCO) is a period of global warmth and relatively high CO2 and is thought to be associated with a significant retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). We present here a new planktic foraminiferal δ11B record from 16.6 to 11.8 Ma from two deep ocean sites currently in equilibrium with the atmosphere with respect to CO2. These new data demonstrate that the evolution of global climate during the middle Miocene (as reflected by changes in the cyrosphere) was well correlated to variations in the concentration of atmospheric CO2. What is more, within our sampling resolution (∼1 sample per 300 kyr) there is no evidence of hysteresis in the response of ice volume to CO2 forcing during the middle Miocene, contrary to what is understood about the Antarctic Ice Sheet from ice sheet modelling studies. In agreement with previous data, we show that absolute levels of CO2 during the MCO were relatively modest (350-400 ppm) and levels either side of the MCO are similar or lower than the pre-industrial (200-260 ppm). These new data imply the presence of either a very dynamic AIS at relatively low CO2 during the middle Miocene or the advance and retreat of significant northern hemisphere ice. Recent drilling on the Antarctic margin and shore based studies indicate significant retreat and advance beyond the modern limits of the AIS did occur during the middle Miocene, but the complete loss of the AIS was unlikely. Consequently, it seems that ice volume and climate variations during the middle Miocene probably involved a more dynamic AIS than the modern but also some component of land-based ice in the northern hemisphere.

Transient nature of late Pleistocene climate variability.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Hyde, William T

2008-11-13

Climate in the early Pleistocene varied with a period of 41 kyr and was related to variations in Earth's obliquity. About 900 kyr ago, variability increased and oscillated primarily at a period of approximately 100 kyr, suggesting that the link was then with the eccentricity of Earth's orbit. This transition has often been attributed to a nonlinear response to small changes in external boundary conditions. Here we propose that increasing variablility within the past million years may indicate that the climate system was approaching a second climate bifurcation point, after which it would transition again to a new stable state characterized by permanent mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere glaciation. From this perspective the past million years can be viewed as a transient interval in the evolution of Earth's climate. We support our hypothesis using a coupled energy-balance/ice-sheet model, which furthermore predicts that the future transition would involve a large expansion of the Eurasian ice sheet. The process responsible for the abrupt change seems to be the albedo discontinuity at the snow-ice edge. The best-fit model run, which explains almost 60% of the variance in global ice volume during the past 400 kyr, predicts a rapid transition in the geologically near future to the proposed glacial state. Should it be attained, this state would be more 'symmetric' than the present climate, with comparable areas of ice/sea-ice cover in each hemisphere, and would represent the culmination of 50 million years of evolution from bipolar nonglacial climates to bipolar glacial climates.

Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Ice Surface Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, S. B.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; Boncori, J. M.; Dall, J.

2011-12-01

In 2007, the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy launched the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) as an ongoing effort to assess changes in the mass budget of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Iceberg calving from the outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet, often termed the ice-dynamic mass loss, is responsible for an important part of the mass loss during the last decade. To quantify this part of the mass loss, we combine airborne surveys yielding ice-sheet thickness along the entire margin, with surface velocities derived from satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR). In order to derive ice sheet surface velocities from SAR a processing chain has been developed for GEUS by DTU Space based on a commercial software package distributed by GAMMA Remote Sensing. The processor, named SUSIE (Scripts and Utilities for SAR Ice-motion Estimation), can use both differential SAR interferometry and offset-tracking techniques to measure the horizontal velocity components, providing also an estimate of the corresponding measurement error. So far surface velocities have been derived for a number of sites including Nioghalvfjerdsfjord Glacier, the Kangerlussuaq region, the Nuuk region, Helheim Glacier and Daugaard-Jensen Glacier using data from ERS-1/ERS-2, ENVISAT ASAR and ALOS Palsar. Here we will present these first results.

Preservation of Midlatitude Ice Sheets on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramson, A. M.; Byrne, S.; Bapst, J.

2017-11-01

Excess ice with a minimum age of tens of millions of years is widespread in Arcadia Planitia on Mars, and a similar deposit has been found in Utopia Planitia. The conditions that led to the formation and preservation of these midlatitude ice sheets hold clues to past climate and subsurface structure on Mars. We simulate the thermal stability and retreat of buried excess ice sheets over 21 Myr of Martian orbital solutions and find that the ice sheets can be orders of magnitude older than the obliquity cycles that are typically thought to drive midlatitude ice deposition and sublimation. Retreat of this ice in the last 4 Myr could have contributed 6% of the volume of the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) and more than 10% if the NPLD are older than 4 Myr. Matching the measured dielectric constants of the Arcadia and Utopia Planitia deposits requires ice porosities of 25-35%. We model geothermally driven vapor migration through porous ice under Martian temperatures and find that Martian firn may be able to maintain porosity for timescales longer than we predict for retreat of the ice.

Modelling the climate and surface mass balance of polar ice sheets using RACMO2 - Part 2: Antarctica (1979-2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melchior van Wessem, Jan; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice P. Y.; van Meijgaard, Erik; Amory, Charles; Birnbaum, Gerit; Jakobs, Constantijn L.; Krüger, Konstantin; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Ligtenberg, Stefan R. M.; Medley, Brooke; Reijmer, Carleen H.; van Tricht, Kristof; Trusel, Luke D.; van Ulft, Lambertus H.; Wouters, Bert; Wuite, Jan; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2018-04-01

We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt. Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229 Gt y-1, with an interannual variability of 109 Gt y-1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ˜ 5.5 km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies. The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.

Inferring Ice Thickness from a Glacier Dynamics Model and Multiple Surface Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Y.; Haran, M.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The future behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have a major impact on future climate. For instance, ice sheet melt may contribute significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the current state of WAIS is therefore of great interest. WAIS is drained by fast-flowing glaciers which are major contributors to ice loss. Hence, understanding the stability and dynamics of glaciers is critical for predicting the future of the ice sheet. Glacier dynamics are driven by the interplay between the topography, temperature and basal conditions beneath the ice. A glacier dynamics model describes the interactions between these processes. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that integrates multiple ice sheet surface data sets with a glacier dynamics model. Our approach allows us to (1) infer important parameters describing the glacier dynamics, (2) learn about ice sheet thickness, and (3) account for errors in the observations and the model. Because we have relatively dense and accurate ice thickness data from the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, we use these data to validate the proposed approach. The long-term goal of this work is to have a general model that may be used to study multiple glaciers in the Antarctic.

Friis Hills Drilling Project - Coring an Early to mid-Miocene terrestrial sequence in the Transantarctic Mountains to examine climate gradients and ice sheet variability along an inland-to-offshore transect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, A. R.; Levy, R. H.; Naish, T.; Gorman, A. R.; Golledge, N.; Dickinson, W. W.; Kraus, C.; Florindo, F.; Ashworth, A. C.; Pyne, A.; Kingan, T.

2015-12-01

The Early to mid-Miocene is a compelling interval to study Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) sensitivity. Circulation patterns in the southern hemisphere were broadly similar to present and reconstructed atmospheric CO2 concentrations were analogous to those projected for the next several decades. Geologic records from locations proximal to the AIS are required to examine ice sheet response to climate variability during this time. Coastal and offshore drill core records recovered by ANDRILL and IODP provide information regarding ice sheet variability along and beyond the coastal margin but they cannot constrain the extent of inland retreat. Additional environmental data from the continental interior is required to constrain the magnitude of ice sheet variability and inform numerical ice sheet models. The only well-dated terrestrial deposits that register early to mid-Miocene interior ice extent and climate are in the Friis Hills, 80 km inland. The deposits record multiple glacial-interglacial cycles and fossiliferous non-glacial beds show that interglacial climate was warm enough for a diverse biota. Drifts are preserved in a shallow valley with the oldest beds exposed along the edges where they terminate at sharp erosional margins. These margins reveal drifts in short stratigraphic sections but none is more than 13 m thick. A 34 m-thick composite stratigraphic sequence has been produced from exposed drift sequences but correlating beds in scattered exposures is problematic. Moreover, much of the sequence is buried and inaccessible in the basin center. New seismic data collected during 2014 reveal a sequence of sediments at least 50 m thick. This stratigraphic package likely preserves a detailed and more complete sedimentary sequence for the Friis Hills that can be used to refine and augment the outcrop-based composite stratigraphy. We aim to drill through this sequence using a helicopter-transportable diamond coring system. These new cores will allow us to obtain continuous measurements on unweathered material through the terrestrial sequence. Beds of tephra are exposed in outcrop and we expect to encounter these key age markers in the cored sequence. These new high quality, well-dated terrestrial data will be directly compared to marine cores to provide environmental data across a broad onshore-offshore transect.

Asynchronous North Atlantic iceberg discharges during the last glacial period explained through ocean circulation changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montoya, M.; Banderas, R.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Robinson, A.

2017-12-01

Heinrich events (HEs) are episodes of increased ice-rafted debris (IRD) deposition in the North Atlantic Ocean that took place during stadials of the last glacial period, and are interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS). IRD originating from the Fennoscandian ice sheet (FIS) accompany HEs during stadials, but enhanced calving has also been reported, however, during interstadials. While a number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain HEs involving the LIS, the role of the FIS during these events has not received much attention from a modeling perspective. Thus, a consistent explanation for the asynchronous occurrence of enhanced IRD throughout the North Atlantic is lacking. Here we investigate the response of the FIS to millennial-scale climate variability during the last glacial period. We use a hybrid three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model forced offline through a novel perturbative approach accounting for a more realistic treatment of millennial-scale climatic variability, including both the atmospheric and the oceanic components. Our results show that the FIS responds with enhanced iceberg discharges in phase with interstadial warmings in the North Atlantic. Separating the atmospheric and oceanic effects demonstrates the major role of the ocean in controlling the dynamics of the FIS on millennial timescales. While the atmospheric forcing alone is only able to produce modest iceberg discharges (< 0.02 Sv), the warmer oceanic surface waters lead to much higher rates of iceberg surges (ca. 0.1 Sv) as a result of relatively high basal melting rates within the margins of the ice sheet through the reactivation of ice streams in the northeastern (NE) part of the ice sheet. Together with previous work our results provide a consistent explanation for the asynchronous response of the LIS and the FIS to glacial abrupt climate changes. Finally, they support the notion that the FIS is a likely candidate to produce iceberg discharges during interstadials as suggested by IRD in the region.

Mid-Wisconsin Laurentide Ice Sheet growth and decay: Implications for Heinrich events 3 and 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, Matthew E.; Andrews, John T.

1999-04-01

A close look at the sedimentology of Heinrich event 4 from the northwest Labrador Sea indicates that an extended ice margin, perhaps greater than before Heinrich events 1 or 2 (H-1 and H-2), existed in the Hudson Strait region pre-Heinrich event 4 (H-4) and, that on the basis of characteristics of the sediment unit, Heinrich event-4 was different than Heinrich events 1 or 2 (i.e., larger ice sheet collapse(?), longer duration(?), "dirtier" icebergs(?)). Other data from across the southern and eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, as well as Greenland and the North Atlantic, support this interpretation, possibly indicating a relative mid-Wisconsin glacial maximum pre-Heinrich event 4. Many of these data also indicate that Heinrich event 4 (35 ka) resulted in serious climatic and oceanographic reorganizations. We suggest that Heinrich event 4 gutted the Hudson Strait, leaving it devoid of ice for Heinrich event 3. We further hypothesize that Heinrich event 3 did not originate from axial ice transport along the Hudson Strait; thus Heinrich event 3 may be more analogous to the proposed northward advancing ice from Ungava Bay during Heinrich event 0 than to the more typical down-the-strait flow during H-1, H-2, and H-4. Consequently, the climatic and oceanographic impacts resulting from Heinrich events are highly susceptible to the type, origin, and magnitude of ice sheet collapse, something which varied per Heinrich event during the last glacial period.

Application of GRACE to the assessment of model-based estimates of monthly Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance (2003-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Wiese, David N.; Larour, Eric Y.; Watkins, Michael M.; Box, Jason E.; Fettweis, Xavier; van den Broeke, Michiel R.

2016-09-01

Quantifying the Greenland Ice Sheet's future contribution to sea level rise is a challenging task that requires accurate estimates of ice sheet sensitivity to climate change. Forward ice sheet models are promising tools for estimating future ice sheet behavior, yet confidence is low because evaluation of historical simulations is challenging due to the scarcity of continental-wide data for model evaluation. Recent advancements in processing of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data using Bayesian-constrained mass concentration ("mascon") functions have led to improvements in spatial resolution and noise reduction of monthly global gravity fields. Specifically, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's JPL RL05M GRACE mascon solution (GRACE_JPL) offers an opportunity for the assessment of model-based estimates of ice sheet mass balance (MB) at ˜ 300 km spatial scales. Here, we quantify the differences between Greenland monthly observed MB (GRACE_JPL) and that estimated by state-of-the-art, high-resolution models, with respect to GRACE_JPL and model uncertainties. To simulate the years 2003-2012, we force the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) with anomalies from three different surface mass balance (SMB) products derived from regional climate models. Resulting MB is compared against GRACE_JPL within individual mascons. Overall, we find agreement in the northeast and southwest where MB is assumed to be primarily controlled by SMB. In the interior, we find a discrepancy in trend, which we presume to be related to millennial-scale dynamic thickening not considered by our model. In the northwest, seasonal amplitudes agree, but modeled mass trends are muted relative to GRACE_JPL. Here, discrepancies are likely controlled by temporal variability in ice discharge and other related processes not represented by our model simulations, i.e., hydrological processes and ice-ocean interaction. In the southeast, GRACE_JPL exhibits larger seasonal amplitude than predicted by the models while simultaneously having more pronounced trends; thus, discrepancies are likely controlled by a combination of missing processes and errors in both the SMB products and ISSM. At the margins, we find evidence of consistent intra-annual variations in regional MB that deviate distinctively from the SMB annual cycle. Ultimately, these monthly-scale variations, likely associated with hydrology or ice-ocean interaction, contribute to steeper negative mass trends observed by GRACE_JPL. Thus, models should consider such processes at relatively high (monthly-to-seasonal) temporal resolutions to achieve accurate estimates of Greenland MB.

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Eastern Ross Ice Sheet Deglacial History inferred from the Roosevelt Island Ice Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fudge, T. J.; Buizert, C.; Lee, J.; Waddington, E. D.; Bertler, N. A. N.; Conway, H.; Brook, E.; Severinghaus, J. P.

2017-12-01

The Ross Ice Sheet drains large portions of both West and East Antarctica. Understanding the retreat of the Ross Ice Sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum is particularly difficult in the eastern Ross area where there is no exposed rock and the Ross Ice Shelf prevents extensive bathymetric mapping. Coastal domes, by preserving old ice, can be used to infer the establishment of grounded ice and be used to infer past ice thickness. Here we focus on Roosevelt Island, in the eastern Ross Sea, where the Roosevelt Island Climate Evolution project recently completed an ice core to bedrock. Using ice-flow modeling constrained by the depth-age relationship and an independent estimate of accumulation rate from firn-densification measurements and modeling, we infer ice thickness histories for the LGM (20ka) to present. Preliminary results indicate thinning of 300m between 15ka and 12ka is required. This is similar to the amount and timing of thinning inferred at Siple Dome, in the central Ross Sea (Waddington et al., 2005; Price et al., 2007) and supports the presence of active ice streams throughout the Ross Ice Sheet advance during the LGM.

Rapid Ice-Sheet Changes and Mechanical Coupling to Solid-Earth/Sea-Level and Space Geodetic Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2015-12-01

Perturbations in gravitational and rotational potentials caused by climate driven mass redistribution on the earth's surface, such as ice sheet melting and terrestrial water storage, affect the spatiotemporal variability in global and regional sea level. Here we present a numerically accurate, computationally efficient, high-resolution model for sea level. Unlike contemporary models that are based on spherical-harmonic formulation, the model can operate efficiently in a flexible embedded finite-element mesh system, thus capturing the physics operating at km-scale yet capable of simulating geophysical quantities that are inherently of global scale with minimal computational cost. One obvious application is to compute evolution of sea level fingerprints and associated geodetic and astronomical observables (e.g., geoid height, gravity anomaly, solid-earth deformation, polar motion, and geocentric motion) as a companion to a numerical 3-D thermo-mechanical ice sheet simulation, thus capturing global signatures of climate driven mass redistribution. We evaluate some important time-varying signatures of GRACE inferred ice sheet mass balance and continental hydrological budget; for example, we identify dominant sources of ongoing sea-level change at the selected tide gauge stations, and explain the relative contribution of different sources to the observed polar drift. We also report our progress on ice-sheet/solid-earth/sea-level model coupling efforts toward realistic simulation of Pine Island Glacier over the past several hundred years.

The Role of Snow and Ice in the Climate System

ScienceCinema

Barry, Roger G.

2017-12-09

Global snow and ice cover (the 'cryosphere') plays a major role in global climate and hydrology through a range of complex interactions and feedbacks, the best known of which is the ice - albedo feedback. Snow and ice cover undergo marked seasonal and long term changes in extent and thickness. The perennial elements - the major ice sheets and permafrost - play a role in present-day regional and local climate and hydrology, but the large seasonal variations in snow cover and sea ice are of importance on continental to hemispheric scales. The characteristics of these variations, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, and evidence for recent trends in snow and ice extent are discussed.

Using paleoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, M. A.; Phipps, S. J.; Roberts, J. L.; White, D.

2016-12-01

Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modeling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how paleoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A large, perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterizations of four key physical processes within ice sheet models: ice rheology, ice shelf calving, and the stress balances within ice sheets and ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Paleoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

Ice Streams as the Critical Link Between the Interior Ice Reservoir of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Global Climate System - a WISSARD Perspective (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tulaczyk, S. M.; Beem, L.; Walter, J. I.; Hossainzadeh, S.; Mankoff, K. D.

2010-12-01

Fast flowing ice streams represent crucial features of the Antarctic ice sheet because they provide discharge ‘valves’ for the interior ice reservoir and because their grounding lines are exposed to ocean thermal forcing. Even with no/little topographic control ice flow near the perimeter of a polar ice sheet self-organizes into discrete, fast-flowing ice streams. Within these features basal melting (i.e. lubrication for ice sliding) is sustained through elevated basal shear heating in a region of thin ice that would otherwise be characterized by basal freezing and slow ice motion. Because faster basal ice motion is typically associated with faster subglacial erosion, ice streams tend to localize themselves over time by carving troughs into underlying rocks and sediments. Debris generated by this erosional activity is carried to the continental shelf and/or continental slope where it may be deposited at very high rates, rivaling these associated with deposition by some of the largest rivers on Earth. In terms of their hydrologic and geological functions, Antarctic ice streams play pretty much the same role as rivers do on non-glaciated continents. However, understanding of their dynamics is still quite rudimentary, largely because of the relative inaccessibility of the key basal and marine boundaries of ice streams where pertinent measurements need to be made. The present elevated interest in predicting future contribution of Antarctica to global sea level changes is driving ambitious research programs aimed at scientific exploration of these poorly investigated environments that will play a key role in defining the response of the ice sheet to near future climate changes. We will review one of these programs, the Whillans Ice Stream Subglacial Access Research Drilling (WISSARD) with particular focus on its planned contributions to understanding of ice stream dynamics.

Holocene temperature history at the west Greenland Ice Sheet margin reconstructed from lake sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Losee, S.; Briner, J. P.; Francis, D.; Langdon, P. G.; Walker, I.

2011-12-01

Paleoclimate proxy data can help reduce uncertainties regarding how the Greenland Ice Sheet, and thus global sea level, will respond to future climate change. Studies of terrestrial deposits along Greenland's margins offer opportunities to reconstruct both past temperature changes and the associated changes in Greenland Ice Sheet extent, thus empirically characterizing the ice sheet's response to temperature change. Here we present Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions developed from sediment records of five lakes along the western ice sheet margin, near Jakobshavn Isbræ and Disko Bugt. Insect (Chironomidae, or non-biting midge) remains from North Lake provide quantitative estimates of summer temperatures over the past ca. 7500 years at multi-centennial resolution, and changes in sediment composition at all five lakes offer evidence for glacier fluctuations, changes in lake productivity, and other environmental changes throughout the Holocene. Aims of this study include quantification of warmth in the early to mid Holocene, when summer solar insolation forcing exceeded present-day values at northern latitudes and the local Greenland Ice Sheet margin receded inboard of its present position, and the magnitude of subsequent Neoglacial and Little Ice Age cooling that drove ice sheet expansion. We find that the Jakobshavn Isbrae region experienced the warmest temperatures of the Holocene (with summers 2 to 3.5 degrees C warmer than present) between ~6000 and 4000 years ago. Neoglacial cooling began rather abruptly ~4000 years ago and intensified 3000 years ago. Our proxy data suggest that the coldest summers of the Holocene occurred during the 18th and 19th centuries in the Jakobshavn region. These results agree well with previous glacial geologic studies reconstructing local ice margin positions through the Holocene. Such reconstructions of paleoclimate and past ice sheet extent provide targets for testing and improving ice sheet models.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves.

PubMed

Pritchard, H D; Ligtenberg, S R M; Fricker, H A; Vaughan, D G; van den Broeke, M R; Padman, L

2012-04-25

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

Heinrich events simulated across the glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziemen, F. A.; Mikolajewicz, U.

2015-12-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent climate change events recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet — climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations were performed fully coupled and with transient orbital and greenhouse gas forcing. They span from several millennia before the last glacial maximum into the deglaciation. We analyze simulations where the ISM is coupled asynchronously to the AOVGCM and simulations where the ISM and the ocean model are coupled synchronously and the atmosphere model is coupled asynchronously to them. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport.

The Greenland Ice Sheet's surface mass balance in a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J. J.; Bamber, J. L.; Valdes, P. J.

2013-09-01

General circulation models predict a rapid decrease in sea ice extent with concurrent increases in near-surface air temperature and precipitation in the Arctic over the 21st century. This has led to suggestions that some Arctic land ice masses may experience an increase in accumulation due to enhanced evaporation from a seasonally sea ice-free Arctic Ocean. To investigate the impact of this phenomenon on Greenland Ice Sheet climate and surface mass balance (SMB), a regional climate model, HadRM3, was used to force an insolation-temperature melt SMB model. A set of experiments designed to investigate the role of sea ice independently from sea surface temperature (SST) forcing are described. In the warmer and wetter SI + SST simulation, Greenland experiences a 23% increase in winter SMB but 65% reduced summer SMB, resulting in a net decrease in the annual value. This study shows that sea ice decline contributes to the increased winter balance, causing 25% of the increase in winter accumulation; this is largest in eastern Greenland as the result of increased evaporation in the Greenland Sea. These results indicate that the seasonal cycle of Greenland's SMB will increase dramatically as global temperatures increase, with the largest changes in temperature and precipitation occurring in winter. This demonstrates that the accurate prediction of changes in sea ice cover is important for predicting Greenland SMB and ice sheet evolution.

Evidence for a substantial West Antarctic ice sheet contribution to meltwater pulses and abrupt global sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Woodward, J.; Winter, K.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Curran, M. A.; Rootes, C.; Rivera, A.; Millman, H.

2015-12-01

During the last deglaciation (21,000 to 7,000years ago) global sea level rise was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater spikes triggered by the retreat of ice sheets and glaciers world-wide. However, the debate regarding the relative timing, geographical source and the physical mechanisms driving these rapid increases in sea level has catalyzed debate critical to predicting future sea level rise and climate. Here we present a unique record of West Antarctic Ice Sheet elevation change derived from the Patriot Hills blue ice area, located close to the modern day grounding line of the Institute Ice Stream in the Weddell Sea Embayment. Combined isotopic signatures and gas volume analysis from the ice allows us to develop a record of local ice sheet palaeo-altitude that is assessed against independent regional high-resolution ice sheet modeling studies, allowing us to demonstrate that past ice sheet elevations across this sector of the WSE were considerably higher than those suggested by current terrestrial reconstructions. We argue that ice in the WSE had a significant influence on both pre and post LGM sea level rise including MWP-1A (~14.6 ka) and during MWP-1B (11.7-11.6 ka), reconciling past sea level rise and demonstrating for the first time that this sector of the WAIS made a significant and direct contribution to post LGM sea level rise.

New eyes in the sky measure glaciers and ice sheets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, Hugh; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Barry, Roger G.; Bindschadler, Robert; Bishop, Michael P.; MacKinnon, David; Ohmura, Atsumu; Raup, Bruce; Antoninetti, Massimo; Bamber, Jonathan; Braun, Mattias; Brown, Ian; Cohen, Denis; Copland, Luke; DueHagen, Jon; Engeset, Rune V.; Fitzharris, Blair; Fujita, Koji; Haeberli, Wilfried; Hagen, Jon Oue; Hall, Dorothy; Hoelzle, Martin; Johansson, Maria; Kaab, Andi; Koenig, Max; Konovalov, Vladimir; Maisch, Max; Paul, Frank; Rau, Frank; Reeh, Niels; Rignot, Eric; Rivera, Andres; De Ruyter de Wildt, Martiyn; Scambos, Ted; Schaper, Jesko; Scharfen, Greg; Shroder, Jack; Solomina, Olga; Thompson, David; van der Veen, Kees; Wohlleben, Trudy; Young, Neal

2000-01-01

The mapping and measurement of glaciers and their changes are useful in predicting sea-level and regional water supply, studying hazards and climate change [Haeberli et al., 1998],and in the hydropower industry Existing inventories cover only about 67,000 of the world's estimated 160,000 glaciers and are based on data collected over 50 years or more [e.g.,Haeberli et al., 1998]. The data available have proven that small ice bodies are disappearing at an accelerating rate and that the Antarctic ice sheet and its fringing ice shelves are undergoing unexpected, rapid change. According to many glaciologists, much larger fluctuations in land ice—with vast implications for society—are possible in the coming decades and centuries due to natural and anthropogenic climate change [Oppenheimer, 1998].

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, J.; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric;

Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming could be dangerous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Hearty, Paul; Ruedy, Reto; Kelley, Maxwell; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Russell, Gary; Tselioudis, George; Cao, Junji; Rignot, Eric; Velicogna, Isabella; Tormey, Blair; Donovan, Bailey; Kandiano, Evgeniya; von Schuckmann, Karina; Kharecha, Pushker; Legrande, Allegra N.; Bauer, Michael; Lo, Kwok-Wai

2016-03-01

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to +6-9 m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 °C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 °C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Holocene temperature shifts around Greenland: Paleolimnological approaches to quantifying past warmth and documenting its consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Lasher, G. E.; McFarlin, J. M.; Francis, D. R.; Kelly, M. A.; Langdon, P. G.; Levy, L.; Osburn, M. R.; Osterberg, E. C.

2015-12-01

Insolation-driven warmth across the Arctic during the early to middle Holocene (the Holocene Thermal Maximum, or HTM) represents a geologically accessible analog for future warming and its impacts. Improved constraints on the magnitude and seasonality of HTM warmth around Greenland's margins can advance the use of paleoclimate data to test and improve climate and ice sheet models. Here we present an overview of our recent efforts to reconstruct climate through the Holocene around the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet using multiple proxies in lake sediments. We use insect (chironomid) assemblages to derive quantitative estimates of Holocene temperatures at sites with minimal soil and vegetation development near the eastern, northwestern and western margins of the ice sheet. Our chironomid-based temperature reconstructions consistently imply HTM July air temperatures 3 to 4.5 °C warmer than the pre-industrial late Holocene in these sectors of Greenland. The timing of reconstructed peak warmth differs between sites, with onset varying from ~10 ka to ~6.5 ka, but in good agreement with glacial geology and other evidence from each region. Our reconstructed temperature anomalies are larger than those typically inferred from annually-integrated indicators from the ice sheet itself, but comparable to the few other quantitative summer temperature estimates available from beyond the ice sheet on Greenland. Additional records are needed to confirm the magnitude of HTM warmth and to better define its seasonality and spatial pattern. To provide independent constraints on paleotemperatures and to elucidate additional aspects of Holocene paleoclimate, we are also employing oxygen isotopes of chironomid remains and other aquatic organic materials, and molecular organic proxies, in parallel (see Lasher et al. and McFarlin et al., this meeting). Combined with glacial geologic evidence, these multi-proxy records elucidate diverse aspects of HTM climate around Greenland - including temperature, hydroclimate, and the response of Greenland's glaciers to past climate change.

Radiostratigraphy and age structure of the Greenland Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

MacGregor, Joseph A; Fahnestock, Mark A; Catania, Ginny A; Paden, John D; Prasad Gogineni, S; Young, S Keith; Rybarski, Susan C; Mabrey, Alexandria N; Wagman, Benjamin M; Morlighem, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Several decades of ice-penetrating radar surveys of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have observed numerous widespread internal reflections. Analysis of this radiostratigraphy has produced valuable insights into ice sheet dynamics and motivates additional mapping of these reflections. Here we present a comprehensive deep radiostratigraphy of the Greenland Ice Sheet from airborne deep ice-penetrating radar data collected over Greenland by The University of Kansas between 1993 and 2013. To map this radiostratigraphy efficiently, we developed new techniques for predicting reflection slope from the phase recorded by coherent radars. When integrated along track, these slope fields predict the radiostratigraphy and simplify semiautomatic reflection tracing. Core-intersecting reflections were dated using synchronized depth-age relationships for six deep ice cores. Additional reflections were dated by matching reflections between transects and by extending reflection-inferred depth-age relationships using the local effective vertical strain rate. The oldest reflections, dating to the Eemian period, are found mostly in the northern part of the ice sheet. Within the onset regions of several fast-flowing outlet glaciers and ice streams, reflections typically do not conform to the bed topography. Disrupted radiostratigraphy is also observed in a region north of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that is not presently flowing rapidly. Dated reflections are used to generate a gridded age volume for most of the ice sheet and also to determine the depths of key climate transitions that were not observed directly. This radiostratigraphy provides a new constraint on the dynamics and history of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Key Points Phase information predicts reflection slope and simplifies reflection tracing Reflections can be dated away from ice cores using a simple ice flow model Radiostratigraphy is often disrupted near the onset of fast ice flow PMID:26213664

Ice Sheet Temperature Records - Satellite and In Situ Data from Antarctica and Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuman, C. A.; Comiso, J. C.

2001-12-01

Recently completed decadal-length surface temperature records from Antarctica and Greenland are providing insights into the challenge of detecting climate change. Ice and snow cover at high latitudes influence the global climate system by reflecting much of the incoming solar energy back to space. An expected consequence of global warming is a decrease in area covered by snow and ice and an increase in Earth's absorption of solar radiation. Models have predicted that the effects of climate warming may be amplified at high latitudes; thinning of the Greenland ice sheet margins and the breakup of Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves suggest this process may have begun. Satellite data provide an excellent means of observing climate parameters across both long temporal and remote spatial domains but calibration and validation of their data remains a challenge. Infrared sensors can provide excellent temperature information but cloud cover and calibration remain as problems. Passive-microwave sensors can obtain data during the long polar night and through clouds but have calibration issues and a much lower spatial resolution. Automatic weather stations are generally spatially- and temporally-restricted and may have long gaps due to equipment failure. Stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen from ice sheet locations provide another means of determining temperature variations with time but are challenging to calibrate to observed temperatures and also represent restricted areas. This presentation will discuss these issues and elaborate on the development and limitations of composite satellite, automatic weather station, and proxy temperature data from selected sites in Antarctica and Greenland.

Climate Stability: Pathway to understand abrupt glacial climate shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Knorr, G.; Barker, S.; Lohmann, G.

2017-12-01

Glacial climate is marked by abrupt, millennial-scale climate changes known as Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) cycles that have been linked to variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The most pronounced stadial coolings, Heinrich Stadials (HSs), are associated with massive iceberg discharges to the North Atlantic. This motivates scientists to consider that the North Atlantic freshwater perturbations is a common trigger of the associated abrupt transitions between weak and strong AMOC states. However, recent studies suggest that the Heinrich ice-surging events are triggered by ocean subsurface warming associated with an AMOC slow-down. Furthermore, the duration of ice-rafting events does not systematically coincide with the beginning and end of the pronounced cold conditions during HSs. In this context, we show that both, changes in atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet configuration can provide important control on the stability of the AMOC, using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Our simulations reveal that gradual changes in Northern Hemisphere ice sheet height and atmospheric CO2 can act as a trigger of abrupt glacial/deglacial climate changes. The simulated global climate responses—including abrupt warming in the North Atlantic, a northward shift of the tropical rain belts, and Southern Hemisphere cooling related to the bipolar seesaw—are generally consistent with empirical evidence. We further find that under a delicate configuration of atmospheric CO2 and ice sheet height the AMOC can be characterized by a self-oscillation (resonance) feature (Hopf Bifucation) with a 1000-year cycle that is comparable with observed small DO events during the MIS 3. This provides an alternative explanation for millennial-scale DO variability during glacial periods.

Long-term Glacial History of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet from Cosmogenic Nuclides in a Subglacial Bedrock Core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spector, P. E.; Stone, J.; Hillebrand, T.; Gombiner, J. H.

2017-12-01

To investigate the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) to climatic conditions warmer than present, we are analyzing cosmogenic nuclides in a bedrock core from beneath 150 m of ice at a site near the Pirrit Hills. Our aim is to determine whether the WAIS has thinned in the past, exposing bedrock at this site, and if so, when. This will help to determine the vulnerability of the ice sheet to future warming, and identify climatic thresholds capable of inducing WAIS collapse. We selected a site where the ice-sheet surface lies at 1300 m, approximately halfway from the ice-sheet divide to the grounding line. We expect ice thickness at the site to reflect WAIS dynamics, rather than local meteorology or topography. Ice flow speeds are moderate and ice above the core site is thin enough to remain cold-based, limiting the possibility of subglacial erosion which would compromise the cosmogenic nuclide record. We targeted a subglacial ridge adjacent to an exposed granite nunatak. This lithology provides minerals suitable for analysis of multiple cosmogenic nuclides with different half-lives. Although we aimed to collect two cores from different depths to compare exposure histories, hydrofracture of the basal ice prevented us from reaching the bed at the first drill site. The second hole produced 5.5 m of discontinuous ice core above 8 m of bedrock core. Initial analyses of quartz from the bedrock show low levels of Be-10. Further analyses of Be-10, Al-26, Cl-36 and Ne-21 from the full length of the core will be required to determine whether this is because the surface has never been exposed, or because the cosmogenic nuclide profile has been truncated by glacial erosion. We will present comprehensive cosmogenic nuclide data, and discuss implications for WAIS deglaciation history, at the meeting. Supported by US National Science Foundation awards ANT-1142162 and PLR-1341728.

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE PAGES

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.; ...

2016-11-23

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier [Sub-ice shelf sediments record 20 th century retreat history of Pine Island Glacier

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, J. A.; Andersen, T. J.; Shortt, M.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line—which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf—is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreatmore » is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Furthermore our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.« less

Ice-shelf collapse from subsurface warming as a trigger for Heinrich events

PubMed Central

Marcott, Shaun A.; Clark, Peter U.; Padman, Laurie; Klinkhammer, Gary P.; Springer, Scott R.; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Carlson, Anders E.; Ungerer, Andy; Padman, June; He, Feng; Cheng, Jun; Schmittner, Andreas

2011-01-01

Episodic iceberg-discharge events from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream (HSIS) of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, referred to as Heinrich events, are commonly attributed to internal ice-sheet instabilities, but their systematic occurrence at the culmination of a large reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) indicates a climate control. We report Mg/Ca data on benthic foraminifera from an intermediate-depth site in the northwest Atlantic and results from a climate-model simulation that reveal basin-wide subsurface warming at the same time as large reductions in the AMOC, with temperature increasing by approximately 2 °C over a 1–2 kyr interval prior to a Heinrich event. In simulations with an ocean model coupled to a thermodynamically active ice shelf, the increase in subsurface temperature increases basal melt rate under an ice shelf fronting the HSIS by a factor of approximately 6. By analogy with recent observations in Antarctica, the resulting ice-shelf loss and attendant HSIS acceleration would produce a Heinrich event. PMID:21808034

Proceedings of a Workshop on Antarctic Meteorite Stranding Surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cassidy, W. A. (Editor); Whillans, I. M. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The discovery of large numbers of meteorites on the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most exciting developments in polar science in recent years. The meteorites are found on areas of ice called stranding surfaces. Because of the sudden availability of hundreds, and then thousands, of new meteorite specimens at these sites, the significance of the discovery of meteorite stranding surfaces in Antarctica had an immediate and profound impact on planetary science, but there is also in this discovery an enormous, largely unrealized potential to glaciology for records of climatic and ice sheet changes. The glaciological interest derives from the antiquity of the ice in meteorite stranding surfaces. This exposed ice covers a range of ages, probably between zero and more than 500,000 years. The Workshop on Antarctic Meteorite Stranding Surfaces was convened to explore this potential and to devise a course of action that could be recommended to granting agencies. The workshop recognized three prime functions of meteorite stranding surfaces. They provide: (1) A proxy record of climatic change (i.e., a long record of climatic change is probably preserved in the exposed ice stratigraphy); (2) A proxy record of ice volume change; and (3) A source of unique nonterrestrial material.

Spatial distirbution of Antarctic mass flux due to iceberg transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Comeau, Darin; Hunke, Elizabeth; Turner, Adrian

Under a changing climate that sees amplified warming in the polar regions, the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet and its impact on sea level rise is of great importance. Icebergs are at the interface of the land-ice, ocean, and sea ice systems, and represent approximately half of the mass flux from the Antarctic ice sheet to the ocean. Calved icebergs transport freshwater away from the coast and exchange heat with the ocean, thereby affecting stratification and circulation, with subsequent indirect thermodynamic effects to the sea ice system. Icebergs also dynamically interact with surrounding sea ice pack, as well as serving as nutrient sources for biogeochemical activity. The spatial pattern of these fluxes transported from the continent to the ocean is generally poorly represented in current global climate models. We are implementing an iceberg model into the new Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) within the MPAS-Seaice model, which uses a variable resolution, unstructured grid framework. This capability will allow for full coupling with the land ice model to inform calving fluxes, and the ocean model for freshwater and heat exchange, giving a complete representation of the iceberg lifecycle and increasing the fidelity of ACME southern cryosphere simulations.

Terrestrial ice streams-a view from the lobe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jennings, C.E.

2006-01-01

The glacial landforms of Minnesota are interpreted as the products of the lobate extensions of ice streams that issued from various ice sheds within the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Low-relief till plains, trough-shaped lowlands, boulder pavements, and streamlined forms make up the subglacial landsystem in Minnesota that is interpreted as having been formed by streaming ice. Extremely uniform tills are created subglacially in a way that remains somewhat mysterious. At the ice margins, thrust moraines and hummocky stagnation topography are more common than single-crested, simple moraines if the ice lobes had repeated advances. Subglacial drainage features are obscure up-ice but are present down-ice in the form of tunnel valleys, eskers, Spooner hills, and associated ice-marginal fans. Ice streaming may occur when basal shear stress is lowered as a result of high subglacial water pressure. Subglacial conditions that allow the retention of water will allow an ice lobe to extend far beyond the ice sheet as long as the ice shed also supports the advance by supplying adequate ice. Even with adequate ice flux, however, the advance of an ice lobe may be terminated, at least temporarily, if the subglacial water is drained, through tunnel valleys or perhaps a permeable substrate. Thrust moraines, and ice stagnation topography will result from sudden drainage. Although climate change is ultimately responsible for the accumulation of ice in the Laurentide Ice Sheet, the asynchronous advances and retreats of the ice lobes in the mid-continent are strongly overprinted by the internal dynamics of individual ice streams as well as the interaction of ice sheds, which obscure the climate signal. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual Greenland Accumulation Rates (2009-2012) from Airborne Snow Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koenig, Lora S.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Alexander, Patrick M.; MacGregor, Joseph A.; Fettweis, Xavier; Panzer, Ben; Paden, John D.; Forster, Richard R.; Das, Indrani; McConnell, Joseph R.;

Ocean forces Greenland and Greenland forces the ocean: a two-way exchange at Greenland's marine margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straneo, F.

2017-12-01

The widespread speed up of Greenland's glaciers, over the last two decades, was unpredicted, revealing major gaps in our understanding of how ice sheets respond to a changing climate. Increased submarine melting at the edge of glaciers has emerged as a key trigger - indicating that glacier/ocean exchanges must be accounted for in ice sheet variability reconstructions and predictions. In parallel, the increasing freshwater discharge into the ocean, associated with Greenland's ice loss, has the potential to impact the North Atlantic's circulation and climate. Thus glacier/ocean exchanges are also relevant to understanding drivers of past and future changes in the North Atlantic Ocean's circulation. Here, I present recent findings from observations collected at the edge of several Greenland glaciers that reveal how melting is caused by intrusions of warm, subtropical waters into the fjords and enhanced by the release of surface melt hundreds of meters below sea level. Similarly, hydrographic and tracer data collected at the glaciers' margins, and within the glacial fjords, reveal how Greenland meltwater are exported in the form of highly diluted glacially modified waters, often subsurface, and temporally lagged with respect to the meltwater release. These findings underline the need for improved representation of ice/ocean exchanges in models in order understand and predict the ice sheet's impact on the ocean and the ocean's impact on the ice sheet.

Exploring the sensitivity of global ocean circulation to future ice loss from Antarctica

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Condron, Alan

The sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) are rarely studied and poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Observations collected over the last 30 years indicate that the WAIS is now losing mass at an accelerated and that a collapse may have already begun in the Amundsen Sea sector. In addition, some recent future model simulations of the AIS showmore » the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years. Such a collapse would be associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project funds PI Condron to begin assessing the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the AIS for the next 50 – 100 years. A series of climate model simulations will determine changes in ocean circulation and temperature at the ice sheet grounding line, the role of mesoscale ocean eddies in mixing and transporting freshwater away from the continent to deep water formation regions, and the likely impact on the northward transport of heat to Europe and North America.« less

Ocean forces Greenland and Greenland forces the ocean: a two-way exchange at Greenland's marine margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, V.; Schoephoester, P.; Lodge, R. W. D.

2016-12-01

The widespread speed up of Greenland's glaciers, over the last two decades, was unpredicted, revealing major gaps in our understanding of how ice sheets respond to a changing climate. Increased submarine melting at the edge of glaciers has emerged as a key trigger - indicating that glacier/ocean exchanges must be accounted for in ice sheet variability reconstructions and predictions. In parallel, the increasing freshwater discharge into the ocean, associated with Greenland's ice loss, has the potential to impact the North Atlantic's circulation and climate. Thus glacier/ocean exchanges are also relevant to understanding drivers of past and future changes in the North Atlantic Ocean's circulation. Here, I present recent findings from observations collected at the edge of several Greenland glaciers that reveal how melting is caused by intrusions of warm, subtropical waters into the fjords and enhanced by the release of surface melt hundreds of meters below sea level. Similarly, hydrographic and tracer data collected at the glaciers' margins, and within the glacial fjords, reveal how Greenland meltwater are exported in the form of highly diluted glacially modified waters, often subsurface, and temporally lagged with respect to the meltwater release. These findings underline the need for improved representation of ice/ocean exchanges in models in order understand and predict the ice sheet's impact on the ocean and the ocean's impact on the ice sheet.

MIS-11 duration key to disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Robinson, Alexander; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey; Montoya, Marisa

2017-07-06

Palaeo data suggest that Greenland must have been largely ice free during Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS-11). However, regional summer insolation anomalies were modest during this time compared to MIS-5e, when the Greenland ice sheet likely lost less volume. Thus it remains unclear how such conditions led to an almost complete disappearance of the ice sheet. Here we use transient climate-ice sheet simulations to simultaneously constrain estimates of regional temperature anomalies and Greenland's contribution to the MIS-11 sea-level highstand. We find that Greenland contributed 6.1 m (3.9-7.0 m, 95% credible interval) to sea level, ∼7 kyr after the peak in regional summer temperature anomalies of 2.8 °C (2.1-3.4 °C). The moderate warming produced a mean rate of mass loss in sea-level equivalent of only around 0.4 m per kyr, which means the long duration of MIS-11 interglacial conditions around Greenland was a necessary condition for the ice sheet to disappear almost completely.

Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik; Larour, Eric; Seroussi, Helene; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, Sophie

2014-05-01

A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has been generally losing its mass since the last glacial maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that the past loading is relatively less important than future loading on the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years 2100 and 2500 AD, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector of WAIS in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay approaches roughly 45 mm/yr in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is associated with the flattening of reverse bed, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote the stability to marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

Switch of flow direction in an Antarctic ice stream.

PubMed

Conway, H; Catania, G; Raymond, C F; Gades, A M; Scambos, T A; Engelhardt, H

2002-10-03

Fast-flowing ice streams transport ice from the interior of West Antarctica to the ocean, and fluctuations in their activity control the mass balance of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Ross Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now positive--that is, it is growing--mainly because one of the ice streams (ice stream C) slowed down about 150 years ago. Here we present evidence from both surface measurements and remote sensing that demonstrates the highly dynamic nature of the Ross drainage system. We show that the flow in an area that once discharged into ice stream C has changed direction, now draining into the Whillans ice stream (formerly ice stream B). This switch in flow direction is a result of continuing thinning of the Whillans ice stream and recent thickening of ice stream C. Further abrupt reorganization of the activity and configuration of the ice streams over short timescales is to be expected in the future as the surface topography of the ice sheet responds to the combined effects of internal dynamics and long-term climate change. We suggest that caution is needed when using observations of short-term mass changes to draw conclusions about the large-scale mass balance of the ice sheet.

Assessment of East Antarctic ice flow directions, ice grounding events, and glacial thermal regime across the middle Miocene climate transition from the ANDRILL-SMS and CRP drill holes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passchier, S.; Hauptvogel, D.; Hansen, M.; Falk, C.; Martin, L.

2010-12-01

Here we present a synthesis of early and middle Miocene ice sheet development based on facies analyses and multiple compositional studies on the AND-2A and CRP drillcores from the Ross Sea, ca. 10 km off the coast of East Antarctica. The middle Miocene is characterized by one of the three largest shifts in deep-sea oxygen isotope records. During this time the East Antarctic ice sheet became dry-based at high elevation in the Transantarctic Mountains and advanced across the Ross Sea continental shelf to create widespread glacial unconformities. However, detailed proxy records also indicate that ice development was complex and may have occurred in a stepwise fashion, instead of one major episode. Our analyses of “grounded ice” diamictites from both the CRP and AND-2A cores show a significant change in composition across the middle Miocene transition. More detailed analyses of the stratigraphic distribution of facies, heavy mineral provenance, particle size, and major and trace element geochemistry in AND-2A show that relatively large polythermal ice-sheets similar in size to the modern were already present between 17.6 and 17.1 Ma. These results are in agreement with proxy records suggesting that Antarctic ice volumes were larger than today’s volume during the Mi-1b glaciation. Between 17.1 and 15.6-14.9 Ma, a predominance of iceberg debris sourced from the Ferrar Group in the Transantarctic Mountains suggests vigorous glacial erosion and fjord incision by East Antarctic outlet glaciers. The facies characteristics and comparison with compositional data from Neogene tills in the Transantarctic Mountains further suggest that the East Antarctic ice sheet may have been smaller than today during the Miocene climatic optimum (~17-15 Ma) with ice possibly reaching sea level only near the central Transantarctic Mountains. Advance of the grounding line and the development of glacial flow patterns compatible with a larger ice sheet than the modern commenced between 15.6 and 14.7 Ma and was established prior to 14.2 Ma. These results suggest an earlier onset of Antarctic ice growth across the middle Miocene climate transition than is generally inferred from geochemical proxy records.

Elevation Change of the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet from Satellite Radar Altimeter Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haines, Bruce J.

1999-01-01

Long-term changes in the thickness of the polar ice sheets are important indicators of climate change. Understanding the contributions to the global water mass balance from the accumulation or ablation of grounded ice in Greenland and Antarctica is considered crucial for determining the source of the about 2 mm/yr sea-level rise in the last century. Though the Antarctic ice sheet is much larger than its northern counterpart, the Greenland ice sheet is more likely to undergo dramatic changes in response to a warming trend. This can be attributed to the warmer Greenland climate, as well as a potential for amplification of a global warming trend in the polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In collaboration with Drs. Curt Davis and Craig Kluever of the University of Missouri, we are using data from satellite radar altimeters to measure changes in the elevation of the Southern Greenland ice sheet from 1978 to the present. Difficulties with systematic altimeter measurement errors, particularly in intersatellite comparisons, beset earlier studies of the Greenland ice sheet thickness. We use altimeter data collected contemporaneously over the global ocean to establish a reference for correcting ice-sheet data. In addition, the waveform data from the ice-sheet radar returns are reprocessed to better determine the range from the satellite to the ice surface. At JPL, we are focusing our efforts principally on the reduction of orbit errors and range biases in the measurement systems on the various altimeter missions. Our approach emphasizes global characterization and reduction of the long-period orbit errors and range biases using altimeter data from NASA's Ocean Pathfinder program. Along-track sea-height residuals are sequentially filtered and backwards smoothed, and the radial orbit errors are modeled as sinusoids with a wavelength equal to one revolution of the satellite. The amplitudes of the sinusoids are treated as exponentially-correlated noise processes with a time-constant of six days. Measurement errors (e.g., altimeter range bias) are simultaneously recovered as constant parameters. The corrections derived from the global ocean analysis are then applied over the Greenland ice sheet. The orbit error and measurement bias corrections for different missions are developed in a single framework to enable robust linkage of ice-sheet measurements from 1978 to the present. In 1998, we completed our re-evaluation of the 1978 Seasat and 1985-1989 Geosat Exact Repeat Mission data. The estimates of ice thickness over Southern Greenland (south of 72N and above 2000 m) from 1978 to 1988 show large regional variations (+/-18 cm/yr), but yield an overall rate of +1.5 +/- 0.5 cm/yr (one standard error). Accounting for systematic errors, the estimate may not be significantly different from the null growth rate. The average elevation change from 1978 to 1988 is too small to assess whether the Greenland ice sheet is undergoing a long-term change.

Proglacial River Reveals Substantial Greenland Ice Sheet Climate Sensitivity and Meltwater Routing Delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van As, D.; Mikkelsen, A. B.; Holtegaard Nielsen, M.; Claesson Liljedahl, L.; Lindback, K.; Pitcher, L. H.; Hasholt, B.

2016-12-01

A 12.000 km2 area of the Greenland ice sheet discharges meltwater via the proglacial Watson River in west Greenland. In a ten-year time span of continuous monitoring (2006-2015), the river discharged 3.8 km3 to 11.2 km3 yr-1. The large interannual variability is for an important part explained by hypsometric amplification: the flattening of the ice sheet with elevation adds 70% meltwater discharge sensitivity to atmospheric temperature. Comparing river discharge with ice sheet surface meltwater production from an observation-based surface mass balance model we quantify multiple-day routing delays for meltwater transit through the supra-, en-, sub- and proglacial system. This delay increases with ice sheet surface elevation: on average five days for surface water at the previous-known equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of ca. 1550 m, and seven days at the 2009-2015 ELA of ca. 1800 m above sea level. A flooding of the Kangerlussuaq bridge as in July 2012 thus requires a multi-day high-melt episode and can therefore be anticipated by in-situ monitoring of ice sheet melt. No evidence of significant en- or subglacial meltwater retention is found.

Mass Changes of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and Shelves and Contributions to Sea-level Rise: 1992-2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Giovinetto, Mario B.; Li, Jun; Cornejo, Helen G.; Beckley, Matthew A.; Brenner, Anita C.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui

2005-01-01

Changes in ice mass are estimated from elevation changes derived from 10.5 years (Greenland) and 9 years (Antarctica) of satellite radar altimetry data from the European Remote-sensing Satellites ERS-1 and -2. For the first time, the dH/dt values are adjusted for changes in surface elevation resulting from temperature-driven variations in the rate of fun compaction. The Greenland ice sheet is thinning at the margins (-42 plus or minus 2 Gta(sup -1) below the equilibrium line altitude (ELA)) and growing inland (+53 plus or minus 2 Gt a(sup -1)above the ELA) with a small overall mass gain (+11 plus or minus 3 Gt a(sup -1); -0.03 mm a(sup -1) SLE (sea level equivalent)). The ice sheet in West Antarctica (WA) is losing mass (-47 (dot) 4 GT a(sup -1) and the ice sheet in East Antarctica (EA) shows a small mass gain (+16 plus or minus 11 Gt a(sup -1) for a combined net change of -31 plus or minus 12 Gt a(sup -1) (+0.08 mm a(sup -1) SLE)). The contribution of the three ice sheets to sea level is +0.05 plus or minus 0.03 mm a(sup -1). The Antarctic ice shelves show corresponding mass changes of -95 (dot) 11 Gt a(sup -1) in WA and +142 plus or minus 10 Gt a(sup -1) in EA. Thinning at the margins of the Greenland ice sheet and growth at higher elevations is an expected response to increasing temperatures and precipitation in a warming climate. The marked thinnings in the Pine Island and Thwaites Glacier basins of WA and the Totten Glacier basin in EA are probably ice-dynamic responses to long-term climate change and perhaps past removal of their adjacent ice shelves. The ice growth in the southern Antarctic Peninsula and parts of EA may be due to increasing precipitation during the last century.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium
ice sheet volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2011-09-01

We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid-scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2011) and a physically-motivated calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is tested in experiments from the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP). A dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions is presented in Martin et al. (2011).

The Southern Glacial Maximum 65,000 years ago and its Unfinished Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer, Joerg M.; Putnam, Aaron E.; Denton, George H.; Kaplan, Michael R.; Birkel, Sean; Doughty, Alice M.; Kelley, Sam; Barrell, David J. A.; Finkel, Robert C.; Winckler, Gisela; Anderson, Robert F.; Ninneman, Ulysses S.; Barker, Stephen; Schwartz, Roseanne; Andersen, Bjorn G.; Schluechter, Christian

2015-04-01

Glacial maxima and their terminations provide key insights into inter-hemispheric climate dynamics and the coupling of atmosphere, surface and deep ocean, hydrology, and cryosphere, which is fundamental for evaluating the robustness of earth's climate in view of ongoing climate change. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼26-19 ka ago) is widely seen as the global cold peak during the last glacial cycle, and its transition to the Holocene interglacial, dubbed 'Termination 1 (T1)', as the most dramatic climate reorganization during this interval. Climate records show that over the last 800 ka, ice ages peaked and terminated on average every 100 ka ('100 ka world'). However, the mechanisms pacing glacial-interglacial transitions remain controversial and in particular the hemispheric manifestations and underlying orbital to regional driving forces of glacial maxima and subsequent terminations remain poorly understood. Here we show evidence for a full glacial maximum in the Southern Hemisphere 65.1 ± 2.7 ka ago and its 'Unfinished Termination'. Our 10Be chronology combined with a model simulation demonstrates that New Zealand's glaciers reached their maximum position of the last glacial cycle during Marine Isotope Stage-4 (MIS-4). Southern ocean and greenhouse gas records indicate coeval peak glacial conditions, making the case for the Southern Glacial Maximum about halfway through the last glacial cycle and only 15 ka after the last warm period (MIS-5a). We present the hypothesis that subsequently, driven by boreal summer insolation forcing, a termination began but remained unfinished, possibly because the northern ice sheets were only moderately large and could not supply enough meltwater to the North Atlantic through Heinrich Stadial 6 to drive a full termination. Yet the Unfinished Termination left behind substantial ice on the northern continents (about 50% of the full LGM ice volume) and after another 45 ka of cooling and ice sheet growth the earth was at inter-hemispheric Last Glacial Maximum configuration, when similar orbital forcing hit maximum-size northern ice sheets and ushered in T1 and thus the ongoing interglacial. This argument highlights the critical role of full glacial conditions in both hemispheres for terminations and implies that the Southern Hemisphere climate could transition from interglacial to full glacial conditions in about 15,000 years, while the Northern Hemisphere and its continental ice-sheets required half a glacial cycle.

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet.

PubMed

Wingham, D J; Shepherd, A; Muir, A; Marshall, G J

2006-07-15

The Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise has long been uncertain. While regional variability in ice dynamics has been revealed, a picture of mass changes throughout the continental ice sheet is lacking. Here, we use satellite radar altimetry to measure the elevation change of 72% of the grounded ice sheet during the period 1992-2003. Depending on the density of the snow giving rise to the observed elevation fluctuations, the ice sheet mass trend falls in the range -5-+85Gtyr-1. We find that data from climate model reanalyses are not able to characterise the contemporary snowfall fluctuation with useful accuracy and our best estimate of the overall mass trend-growth of 27+/-29Gtyr-1-is based on an assessment of the expected snowfall variability. Mass gains from accumulating snow, particularly on the Antarctic Peninsula and within East Antarctica, exceed the ice dynamic mass loss from West Antarctica. The result exacerbates the difficulty of explaining twentieth century sea-level rise.

Insect-Based Holocene (and Last Interglacial?) Paleothermometry from the E and NW Greenland Ice Sheet Margins: A Fly's-Eye View of Warmth on Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Bigl, M.; Carrio, C.; Corbett, L. B.; Francis, D. R.; Hall, B. L.; Kelly, M. A.; Levy, L.; Lowell, T. V.; Osterberg, E. C.; Richter, N.; Roy, E.; Schellinger, G. C.

2013-12-01

Here we present new paleotemperature reconstructions based upon insect (Chironomidae) assemblages and other proxies from lake sediment cores recovered in east Greenland at ~71° N near Scoresby Sund and in northwest Greenland at ~77° N near Thule/Qaanaaq. In east Greenland, Last Chance Lake (informal name) is a small, non-glacial lake situated ~90 km east of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. The lake preserves a sedimentary record of the entire Holocene (Levy et al. 2013). Chironomids from Last Chance Lake record cold summer temperatures (and establishment of a cold-climate fauna including abundant Oliveridia and Pseudodiamesa) during the late Holocene, preceded by summer temperatures estimated to have been 3 to 6°C warmer during the first half of the Holocene (when summer insolation forcing was greater than today). In northwest Greenland, Delta Sø and Wax Lips Lake (informal name) both preserve Holocene sediments. Here we discuss the late Holocene chironomid record from Delta Sø, whereas from Wax Lips Lake (a small, non-glacial lake situated ~2 km west of the ice sheet margin) we present a longer sedimentary and biostratigraphic record. The deeper portions of cores from Wax Lips Lake yield pre-Holocene and nonfinite radiocarbon ages, suggesting that this lake preserves sediments predating the Last Glacial Maximum. Abundant chironomids in the pre-glacial sediments appear to record interglacial conditions, and we infer that these sediments may date to the Last Interglacial (Eemian). The preservation of in situ Last Interglacial lacustrine sediments so close to the modern ice sheet margin suggests a minimally erosive glacierization style throughout the last glacial period, like that inferred for other Arctic locales such as on Baffin Island (Briner et al. 2007), ~750 km southwest of our study site. Our study sites are situated nearby key ice core sites (including NEEM, Camp Century, Agassiz and Renland) and very close to the ice sheet margin. These chironomid records therefore provide opportunities to compare climate inferences based upon ice core data and reconstructed ice margin histories with independent, biologically based estimates of air temperatures for the Holocene and possibly the Last Interglacial. Briner, J.P., Axford, Y., Forman, S.L., Miller, G.H., and Wolfe, A.P. 2007. Multiple generations of interglacial lake sediment preserved beneath the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Geology 35, 887-890. Levy, L.B., Kelly, M.A., Lowell, T.V., Hall, B.L., Hempel, L.A., Honsaker, W.M., Lusas, A.R., Howley, J.A., Axford, Y.L., 2013. Holocene fluctuations of Bregne ice cap, Scoresby Sund, east Greenland: a proxy for climate along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. In press, Quaternary Science Reviews.

Insect-Based Holocene (and Last Interglacial?) Paleothermometry from the E and NW Greenland Ice Sheet Margins: A Fly's-Eye View of Warmth on Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Y.; Bigl, M.; Carrio, C.; Corbett, L. B.; Francis, D. R.; Hall, B. L.; Kelly, M. A.; Levy, L.; Lowell, T. V.; Osterberg, E. C.; Richter, N.; Roy, E.; Schellinger, G. C.

2011-12-01

Here we present new paleotemperature reconstructions based upon insect (Chironomidae) assemblages and other proxies from lake sediment cores recovered in east Greenland at ~71° N near Scoresby Sund and in northwest Greenland at ~77° N near Thule/Qaanaaq. In east Greenland, Last Chance Lake (informal name) is a small, non-glacial lake situated ~90 km east of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. The lake preserves a sedimentary record of the entire Holocene (Levy et al. 2013). Chironomids from Last Chance Lake record cold summer temperatures (and establishment of a cold-climate fauna including abundant Oliveridia and Pseudodiamesa) during the late Holocene, preceded by summer temperatures estimated to have been 3 to 6°C warmer during the first half of the Holocene (when summer insolation forcing was greater than today). In northwest Greenland, Delta Sø and Wax Lips Lake (informal name) both preserve Holocene sediments. Here we discuss the late Holocene chironomid record from Delta Sø, whereas from Wax Lips Lake (a small, non-glacial lake situated ~2 km west of the ice sheet margin) we present a longer sedimentary and biostratigraphic record. The deeper portions of cores from Wax Lips Lake yield pre-Holocene and nonfinite radiocarbon ages, suggesting that this lake preserves sediments predating the Last Glacial Maximum. Abundant chironomids in the pre-glacial sediments appear to record interglacial conditions, and we infer that these sediments may date to the Last Interglacial (Eemian). The preservation of in situ Last Interglacial lacustrine sediments so close to the modern ice sheet margin suggests a minimally erosive glacierization style throughout the last glacial period, like that inferred for other Arctic locales such as on Baffin Island (Briner et al. 2007), ~750 km southwest of our study site. Our study sites are situated nearby key ice core sites (including NEEM, Camp Century, Agassiz and Renland) and very close to the ice sheet margin. These chironomid records therefore provide opportunities to compare climate inferences based upon ice core data and reconstructed ice margin histories with independent, biologically based estimates of air temperatures for the Holocene and possibly the Last Interglacial. Briner, J.P., Axford, Y., Forman, S.L., Miller, G.H., and Wolfe, A.P. 2007. Multiple generations of interglacial lake sediment preserved beneath the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Geology 35, 887-890. Levy, L.B., Kelly, M.A., Lowell, T.V., Hall, B.L., Hempel, L.A., Honsaker, W.M., Lusas, A.R., Howley, J.A., Axford, Y.L., 2013. Holocene fluctuations of Bregne ice cap, Scoresby Sund, east Greenland: a proxy for climate along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin. In press, Quaternary Science Reviews.

Nature and History of Cenozoic Polar Ice Covers: The Case of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spielhagen, R.; Thiede, J.

2009-04-01

The nature of the modern climate System is characterized by steep temperature gradients between the tropical and polar climatic zones and finds its most spectacular expression in the formation of ice caps in high Northern and Southern latitudes. While polar regions of Planet Earth have been glaciated repeatedly in the long course of their geological history, the Cenozoic transition from a „greenhouse" to an „icehouse" has in fact produced a unique climatic scenario with bipolar glacation, different from all previous glacial events. The Greenland ice sheet is a remainder of the Northern Hemisphere last glacial maximum ice sheets and represents hence a spectacular anomaly. Geological records from Tertiary and Quaternary terrestrial and oceanic sections have documented the presence of ice caps and sea ice covers both on the Southern as well on the Northern hemisphere since Eocene times, aqpprox. 45 Mio. years ago. While this was well known in the case of Antarctica already for some time, previous ideas about the origin of Northern hemisphere glaciation during Pliocene times (approx. 2-3 Mio. years ago) have been superceded by the dramatic findings of coarse, terrigenous ice rafted detritus in Eocene sediments from Lomonosov Ridge (close to the North Pole) apparently slightly older than the oldest Antarctic records of ice rafting.The histories of the onset of Cenozoic glaciation in high Northern and Southern latitudes remain enigmatic and are presently subjects of international geological drilling projects, with prospects to reveal some of their secrets over the coming decades. By virtue of the physical porperties of ice and the processes controlling the dynamics of the turn-over of the ice-sheets only young records of glacial ice caps on Antarctica and on Greemnland have been preserved, on Greenland with ice probably not older than a few hundred thousand years, on Antarctica potentially as old as 1.5-2 Mio. years. Deep-sea cores with their records od ice-rafting from off NE Greenland, Fram Strait and to the South of Greenland suggest the more or less continous existence of the Greenland ice sheet for the past 18 Mio. years, if not more, a phantastic supplement of the Northern hemisphere glaciation deduced from the ice cores. The dramatic decrease of extent and thickness of the Arctic sea ice cover of the past decades has aroused much public and political interest because of the potentially dramatic consequences for the exploitation of living and non-living resources as well as the socio-economic, technical and commercial systems developed in the Arctic seas and in the permafrost-infested adjacent land areas. The fate of the Greenland ice sheet with its impact on global sea level changes is one of the central unresolved problems. We urgently need novel marine research platforms which allow for an all-season presence of research and monitoring programs as well of scientific drilling programs in the Arctic Ocean.

Atmospheric and oceanic impacts of Antarctic glaciation across the Eocene-Oligocene transition.

PubMed

Kennedy, A T; Farnsworth, A; Lunt, D J; Lear, C H; Markwick, P J

2015-11-13

The glaciation of Antarctica at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (approx. 34 million years ago) was a major shift in the Earth's climate system, but the mechanisms that caused the glaciation, and its effects, remain highly debated. A number of recent studies have used coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models to assess the climatic effects of Antarctic glacial inception, with often contrasting results. Here, using the HadCM3L model, we show that the global atmosphere and ocean response to growth of the Antarctic ice sheet is sensitive to subtle variations in palaeogeography, using two reconstructions representing Eocene and Oligocene geological stages. The earlier stage (Eocene; Priabonian), which has a relatively constricted Tasman Seaway, shows a major increase in sea surface temperature over the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean in response to the ice sheet. This response does not occur for the later stage (Oligocene; Rupelian), which has a more open Tasman Seaway. This difference in temperature response is attributed to reorganization of ocean currents between the stages. Following ice sheet expansion in the earlier stage, the large Ross Sea gyre circulation decreases in size. Stronger zonal flow through the Tasman Seaway allows salinities to increase in the Ross Sea, deep-water formation initiates and multiple feedbacks then occur amplifying the temperature response. This is potentially a model-dependent result, but it highlights the sensitive nature of model simulations to subtle variations in palaeogeography, and highlights the need for coupled ice sheet-climate simulations to properly represent and investigate feedback processes acting on these time scales. © 2015 The Author(s).

Upper Ocean Circulation in the Glacial Northeast Atlantic during Heinrich Stadials Ice-Sheet Retreat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toucanne, S.; Soulet, G.; Bosq, M.; Marjolaine, S.; Zaragosi, S.; Bourillet, J. F.; Bayon, G.

2016-12-01

Intermediate ocean water variability is involved in climate changes over geological timescales. As a prominent example, changes in North Atlantic subsurface water properties (including warming) during Heinrich Stadials may have triggered the so-called Heinrich events through ice-shelf loss and attendant ice-stream acceleration. While the origin of Heinrich Stadials and subsequent iceberg calving remains controversial, paleoceanographic research efforts mainly focus on the deep Atlantic overturning, leaving the upper ocean largely unexplored. To further evaluate variability in upper ocean circulation and its possible relationship with ice-sheet instabilities, a depth-transect of eight cores (BOBGEO and GITAN-TANDEM cruises) from the Northeast Atlantic (down to 2 km water depth) have been used to investigate kinematic and chemical changes in the upper ocean during the last glacial period. Our results reveal that near-bottom flow speeds (reconstructed by using sortable silt mean grain-size and X-ray fluorescence core-scanner Zr/Rb ratio) and water-masses chemistry (carbon and neodymium isotopes performed on foraminifera) substantially changed in phase with the millennial-scale climate changes recognized in the ice-core records. Our results are compared with paleoceanographic reconstructions of the 'Western Boundary Undercurrent' in order to discuss regional hydrographic differences at both sides of the North Atlantic, as well as with the fluctuations of both the marine- (through ice-rafted debris) and terrestrial-terminating ice-streams (through meltwater discharges) of the circum-Atlantic ice-sheets. Particular attention will be given to the Heinrich Stadials and concomitant Channel River meltwater discharges into the Northeast Atlantic in response to the melting of the European Ice-Sheet. This comparison helps to disentangle the cryosphere-ocean interactions throughout the last ice age, and the sequence of events occurring in the course of the Heinrich Stadials.

Sub-ice-shelf sediments record history of twentieth-century retreat of Pine Island Glacier.

PubMed

Smith, J A; Andersen, T J; Shortt, M; Gaffney, A M; Truffer, M; Stanton, T P; Bindschadler, R; Dutrieux, P; Jenkins, A; Hillenbrand, C-D; Ehrmann, W; Corr, H F J; Farley, N; Crowhurst, S; Vaughan, D G

2017-01-05

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the largest potential sources of rising sea levels. Over the past 40 years, glaciers flowing into the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet have thinned at an accelerating rate, and several numerical models suggest that unstable and irreversible retreat of the grounding line-which marks the boundary between grounded ice and floating ice shelf-is underway. Understanding this recent retreat requires a detailed knowledge of grounding-line history, but the locations of the grounding line before the advent of satellite monitoring in the 1990s are poorly dated. In particular, a history of grounding-line retreat is required to understand the relative roles of contemporaneous ocean-forced change and of ongoing glacier response to an earlier perturbation in driving ice-sheet loss. Here we show that the present thinning and retreat of Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is part of a climatically forced trend that was triggered in the 1940s. Our conclusions arise from analysis of sediment cores recovered beneath the floating Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, and constrain the date at which the grounding line retreated from a prominent seafloor ridge. We find that incursion of marine water beyond the crest of this ridge, forming an ocean cavity beneath the ice shelf, occurred in 1945 (±12 years); final ungrounding of the ice shelf from the ridge occurred in 1970 (±4 years). The initial opening of this ocean cavity followed a period of strong warming of West Antarctica, associated with El Niño activity. Thus our results suggest that, even when climate forcing weakened, ice-sheet retreat continued.

Did accelerated North American ice sheet melt contribute to the 8.2 ka cooling event ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, Ilkka S. O.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Ivanović, Ruža F.; Tindall, Julia C.; Haywood, Alan M.

2016-04-01

The 8.2 ka event was an abrupt cooling of the Northern Hemisphere 8,200 years ago. It is an almost ideal case study to benchmark the sensitivity of climate models to freshening of the North Atlantic by ice sheet melt (Schmidt and LeGrande, 2005). The event is attributed to the outburst of North American proglacial lakes into the Labrador Sea, causing a slow-down in Atlantic overturning circulation and cooling of 1-2.5 °C around the N. Atlantic (Alley and Ágústsdóttir,2005). Climate models fail to simulate the ~150 year duration of the event when forced with a sudden (0.5 to 5 years) drainage of the lakes (Morrill et al., 2013a). This could be because of missing forcings. For example, the separation of ice sheet domes around the Hudson Bay is thought to have produced a pronounced acceleration in ice sheet melt through a saddle collapse mechanism around the time of the event (Gregoire et al., 2012). Here we investigate whether this century scale acceleration of melt contributed to the observed climatic perturbation, using the coupled Ocean-Atmosphere climate model HadCM3. We designed and ran a set of simulations with temporally variable ice melt scenarios based on a model of the North American ice sheet. The simulated magnitude and duration of the cold period is controlled by the duration and amount of freshwater introduced to the ocean. With a 100-200 year-long acceleration of ice melt up to a maximum of 0.61 Sv, we simulate 1-3 °C cooling in the North Atlantic and ~0.5-1 °C cooling in Continental Europe; which are similar in magnitude to the ~1-2 °C cooling estimated from records for these areas (Morrill et al., 2013b). Some of the observed features are however not reproduced in our experiments, such as the most pronounced cooling of ~6 °C observed in central Greenland (Alley and Ágústsdóttir, 2005). The results suggest that the ~150 year North Atlantic and European cooling could be caused by ~200 years of accelerated North American ice sheet melt. This forcing should therefore be taken into account in the setup of 8.2 ka simulations. References: Alley, R.B., Ágústsdóttir, A.M., 2005. The 8 k event: cause and consequences of a major Holocene abrupt climate change. Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (10-11),1123-1149. Gregoire, L. J., A. J. Payne, and P. J. Valdes (2012), Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses, Nature, 487, 219-223. Morrill, C., A. N. LeGrande, H. Renssen, P. Bakker, and B. L. Otto-Bliesner (2013a), Model sensitivity to North Atlantic freshwater forcing at 8.2 ka, Clim. Past, 9, 955-968. Morrill, C., D. M. Anderson, B. A. Bauer, R. Buckner, E. P. Gille, W. S. Gross, M. Hartman, and A. Shah (2013b), Proxy benchmarks for inter-comparison of 8.2 ka simulations, Clim. Past, 9, 423-432. Schmidt, G. A., and A. N. LeGrande (2005), The Goldilocks abrupt climate change event, Quat. Sci. Rev., 24, 1109-1110.

Sea Level Rise in the 21st Century: Will projections ever become reliable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willis, J. K.

2014-12-01

Global sea level rise has the potential to become one of the most costly and least well predicted impacts of human caused climate change. Unlike global surface temperature, the spread of possible scenarios (as little as 1 foot and as much as 6 feet by 2100) is not due to uncertainty about future rates of greenhouse gas emissions, but rather by a fundamental lack of knowledge about how the major ice sheets will behave in a warming climate. Clearly improved projections of sea level rise should become a major research priority in the next decade. At present, controversial techniques based on comparison with historical analogs and rates of recent warming and sea level rise are often used to create projections for the 21st Century. However, many in the scientific community feel that reliable projections must be based on a sound knowledge of the physics governing sea level rise, and particularly ice sheet behavior. In particular, large portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet rest on solid earth that sits below sea level. These regions may be threatened, not by atmospheric warming or changes in precipitation, but rather by direct forcing from the ocean. Fledgling efforts to understand these ocean ice interactions are already underway, as are efforts to make improved models of ice sheet behavior. However a great deal of work is still needed before widely accepted projections of sea level rise become a reality. This paper will highlight the hurdles to making such projections today and suggest ways forward in this critical area of research.

A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nikolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Koenig, Lora S.

2012-01-01

We have developed a climate-quality data record of the clear-sky surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm. A climate-data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change. We present daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid. This record will be elevated in status to a CDR when at least nine more years of data become available either from MODIS Terra or Aqua, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Our ultimate goal is to develop a CDR that starts in 1981 with the Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset and continues with MODIS data from 2000 to the present, and into the VIIRS era. Differences in the APP and MODIS cloud masks have so far precluded the current 1ST records from spanning both the APP and MODIS time series in a seamless manner though this will be revisited when the APP dataset has been reprocessed. The complete MODIS 1ST daily and monthly data record is available online.

Modeling the fracture of ice sheets on parallel computers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waisman, Haim; Bell, Robin; Keyes, David

2010-03-01

The objective of this project is to investigate the complex fracture of ice and understand its role within larger ice sheet simulations and global climate change. At the present time, ice fracture is not explicitly considered within ice sheet models due in part to large computational costs associated with the accurate modeling of this complex phenomena. However, fracture not only plays an extremely important role in regional behavior but also influences ice dynamics over much larger zones in ways that are currently not well understood. Dramatic illustrations of fracture-induced phenomena most notably include the recent collapse of ice shelves inmore » Antarctica (e.g. partial collapse of the Wilkins shelf in March of 2008 and the diminishing extent of the Larsen B shelf from 1998 to 2002). Other fracture examples include ice calving (fracture of icebergs) which is presently approximated in simplistic ways within ice sheet models, and the draining of supraglacial lakes through a complex network of cracks, a so called ice sheet plumbing system, that is believed to cause accelerated ice sheet flows due essentially to lubrication of the contact surface with the ground. These dramatic changes are emblematic of the ongoing change in the Earth's polar regions and highlight the important role of fracturing ice. To model ice fracture, a simulation capability will be designed centered around extended finite elements and solved by specialized multigrid methods on parallel computers. In addition, appropriate dynamic load balancing techniques will be employed to ensure an approximate equal amount of work for each processor.« less

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-10-28

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

2014-06-01

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

Future Antarctic bed topography and its implications for ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Nowicki, S.

2014-01-01

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A~recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is generally losing its mass since the last glacial maximum (LGM). In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves. We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS. We find that the past loading is relatively less important than future loading on the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years 2100 and 2500 AD, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay approaches roughly 45 mm yr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is associated with the flattening of reverse bed, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote the stability to marine portions of the ice sheet in future.

Future Antarctic Bed Topography and Its Implications for Ice Sheet Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric Y.; Seroussi, Helene L.; Morlighem, Mathieu; Nowicki, S.

2014-01-01

The Antarctic bedrock is evolving as the solid Earth responds to the past and ongoing evolution of the ice sheet. A recently improved ice loading history suggests that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has generally been losing its mass since the Last Glacial Maximum. In a sustained warming climate, the AIS is predicted to retreat at a greater pace, primarily via melting beneath the ice shelves.We employ the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) capability of the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) to combine these past and future ice loadings and provide the new solid Earth computations for the AIS.We find that past loading is relatively less important than future loading for the evolution of the future bed topography. Our computations predict that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may uplift by a few meters and a few tens of meters at years AD 2100 and 2500, respectively, and that the East Antarctic Ice Sheet is likely to remain unchanged or subside minimally except around the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amundsen Sea Sector in particular is predicted to rise at the greatest rate; one hundred years of ice evolution in this region, for example, predicts that the coastline of Pine Island Bay will approach roughly 45mmyr-1 in viscoelastic vertical motion. Of particular importance, we systematically demonstrate that the effect of a pervasive and large GIA uplift in the WAIS is generally associated with the flattening of reverse bed slope, reduction of local sea depth, and thus the extension of grounding line (GL) towards the continental shelf. Using the 3-D higher-order ice flow capability of ISSM, such a migration of GL is shown to inhibit the ice flow. This negative feedback between the ice sheet and the solid Earth may promote stability in marine portions of the ice sheet in the future.

Repeated large-scale retreat and advance of Totten Glacier indicated by inland bed erosion.

PubMed

Aitken, A R A; Roberts, J L; van Ommen, T D; Young, D A; Golledge, N R; Greenbaum, J S; Blankenship, D D; Siegert, M J

2016-05-19

Climate variations cause ice sheets to retreat and advance, raising or lowering sea level by metres to decametres. The basic relationship is unambiguous, but the timing, magnitude and sources of sea-level change remain unclear; in particular, the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is ill defined, restricting our appreciation of potential future change. Several lines of evidence suggest possible collapse of the Totten Glacier into interior basins during past warm periods, most notably the Pliocene epoch, causing several metres of sea-level rise. However, the structure and long-term evolution of the ice sheet in this region have been understood insufficiently to constrain past ice-sheet extents. Here we show that deep ice-sheet erosion-enough to expose basement rocks-has occurred in two regions: the head of the Totten Glacier, within 150 kilometres of today's grounding line; and deep within the Sabrina Subglacial Basin, 350-550 kilometres from this grounding line. Our results, based on ICECAP aerogeophysical data, demarcate the marginal zones of two distinct quasi-stable EAIS configurations, corresponding to the 'modern-scale' ice sheet (with a marginal zone near the present ice-sheet margin) and the retreated ice sheet (with the marginal zone located far inland). The transitional region of 200-250 kilometres in width is less eroded, suggesting shorter-lived exposure to eroding conditions during repeated retreat-advance events, which are probably driven by ocean-forced instabilities. Representative ice-sheet models indicate that the global sea-level increase resulting from retreat in this sector can be up to 0.9 metres in the modern-scale configuration, and exceeds 2 metres in the retreated configuration.

East Antarctic Ice Sheet fluctuations during the Middle Miocene Climatic Transition inferred from faunal and biogeochemical data on planktonic foraminifera (ODP Hole 747A, Kerguelen Plateau)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verducci, M.; Foresi, L.M.; Scott, G.H.; ,; Sprovieri, M.; Lirer, F.

2007-01-01

This research focuses on a detailed study of faunal and biogeochemical changes that occurred at ODP Hole 747A in the Kerguelen Plateau region of the Southern Ocean during the middle Miocene (14.8-11.8 Ma). Abundance fluctuations of several planktonic foraminiferal taxa, stable oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca ratios have been integrated as a multi-proxy approach to reach a better understanding of the growth modality and fluctuations of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) during this period. A 7°C decrease in Sea Surface Temperature (SST), an abrupt turnover in the planktonic foraminiferal assemblage, a 1.5‰ shift towards heavier δ18O values (Mi3 event) and a related shift towards heavier seawater δ118O values between 13.9 and 13.7 Ma, are interpreted to reflect rapid surface water cooling and EAIS expansion. Hole 747A data suggest a major change in the variability of the climate system fostered by EAIS expansion between 13.9 and 13.7 Ma. Ice sheet fluctuations were greater during the interval 14.8-13.9 Ma compared with those from 13.7 to 11.8 Ma, whereas the latter interval was characterized by a more stable EAIS. In our opinion, the middle Miocene ice sheet expansion in Antarctica represents a first step towards the development of the modern permanent ice sheet

Future ice ages and the challenges related to final disposal of nuclear waste: The Greenland Ice Sheet Hydrology Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehtinen, A.; Claesson-Liljedahl, L.; Näslund, J.-O.; Ruskeeniemi, T.

2009-04-01

A deep geological repository for nuclear waste is designed to keep radiotoxic material separated from mankind and the environment for several hundreds of thousands of years. Within this time perspective glacial conditions are expected in high latitudes/Canada and North Europe. Climate induced changes such as the growth of ice sheets and permafrost will influence and alter the ground surface and subsurface environment, which may impact repository safety. In order to understand how climate change, particularly cooling and glaciation, might affect a repository in the long term, the use of present-day analogues helps to reduce the uncertainties and support the assumptions made in safety assessments. There are major uncertainties concerning hydrological processes related to glacial conditions. The impact of glaciations on any planned repository is a key consideration when performing safety assessments as it is one of the strongest perturbations related to climate change in the long term. The main aspects that need to be further investigated include: 1) to what extent does the meltwater produced by an ice sheet penetrates into the bedrock; 2) what is the pressure situation under an ice sheet, driving ground water flow; 3) how much oxygenated water will reach repository depth; 4) to what depth does glacial meltwater penetrate into the bedrock ; 5)what chemical composition does such water has when and if it reaches repository depth; and 6) can taliks (unfrozen ground in a permafrost area) act as concentrated discharge points of deep groundwater potentially transporting radionuclides in case of repository failure? Field data is needed in order to achieve a better and integrated understanding of the problems discussed above. Thus, research in a natural analogue site in Greenland has been planned and initiated by the Finnish (Posiva), Swedish (SKB) and Canadian (NWMO) nuclear waste management companies. The Greenland ice sheet and the Kangerlussuaq area (west Greenland) provides a good analogue for this purpose due to similarities in geology (in the selected study area), and the climate conditions and ice sheet size in Kangerlussuaq resemble the expected conditions in Fennoscandia during future glaciations. In 2005 and 2008 reconnaissance field trips were made to Kangerlussuaq, which confirmed the suitability of the area for the planned studies. According to the present Work Programme the investigations will be carried out in 2009-2012. The project is divided into four subprojects (SPA, SPB, SPC and SPD) addressing specific and different topics at or in relation to the ice margin: SPA (ice sheet hydrology and glacial groundwater formation); SPB (subglacial ice sheet hydrology), SPC (hydrogeochemistry and hydrogeology) and SPD (periglacial environment: biosphere and permafrost). The main objectives of SPA and SPB are to gain a better process understanding of supra- and subglacial hydrology. Qualitative and quantitative knowledge of the mechanisms, rates and distribution of the melt water recharge through the ice down to the bed, location and extension of warm-based areas and hydraulic pressure conditions at the base are the key issues to be studied. This will be made by meteorological observations, GPS measurements, radar surveys, drilling through the ice sheet and by ice sheet modelling. SPC will further study the fate of melt water by extending the investigations into the bedrock. It is assumed that the high hydraulic pressures at the ice sheet bed force water into the fracture network prevailing in the bedrock. However, it is not known how the fracture network behaves under loading, what is the proportion of recharging water compared to the drainage through the bed sediments, what is the intrusion depth, how long the meltwater can sustain its oxic nature and what chemical composition the recharging water has when and if it reaches repository depth (400-700 m). SPC seeks to answer these questions by drilling and instrumenting boreholes drilled into the bedrock and below the ice sheet. SPD is aiming at describing and studying processes acting in the periglacial environment affected by permafrost conditions. The observations will be used within the safety assessment biosphere programs. From the acquired results we will obtain data, which will allow us to develop better conceptual and numerical models for quantitative analysis of ice sheet hydrology and dynamics, groundwater flow, groundwater chemistry and hydro-mechanical couplings during glacial periods, by reducing uncertainties and better constraining the boundary conditions used in the models. Finally, this project concerns the first in situ investigation of the vital parameters needed to achieve a holistic and realistic understanding of how an ice sheet may impact a deep geological repository for spent nuclear waste and will provide the necessary integrated view of ice sheet hydrology and groundwater flow/chemistry needed when executing safety assessments for the geological repositories in Sweden, Finland and Canada.

Climate Proxies: An Inquiry-Based Approach to Discovering Climate Change on Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wishart, D. N.

2016-12-01

An attractive way to advance climate literacy in higher education is to emphasize its relevance while teaching climate change across the curriculum to science majors and non-science majors. An inquiry-based pedagogical approach was used to engage five groups of students on a "Polar Discovery Project" aimed at interpreting the paleoclimate history of ice cores from Antarctica. Learning objectives and student learning outcomes were clearly defined. Students were assigned several exercises ranging from examination of Antarctic topography to the application of physical and chemical measurements as proxies for climate change. Required materials included base and topographic maps of Antarctica; graph sheets for construction of topographic cross-sectional profiles from profile lines of the Western Antarctica Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide and East Antarctica; high-resolution photographs of Antarctic ice cores; stratigraphic columns of ice cores; borehole and glaciochemical data (i.e. anions, actions, δ18O, δD etc.); and isotope data on greenhouse gases (CH4, O2, N2) extracted from gas bubbles in ice cores. The methodology was to engage students in (2) construction of topographic profiles; (2) suggest directions for ice flow based on simple physics; (3) formulate decisions on suitable locations for drilling ice cores; (4) visual ice stratigraphy including ice layer counting; (5) observation of any insoluble particles (i.e. meteoritic and volcanic material); (6) analysis of borehole temperature profiles; and (7) the interpretation of several datasets to derive a paleoclimate history of these areas of the continent. The overall goal of the project was to improve the students analytical and quantitative skills; their ability to evaluate relationships between physical and chemical properties in ice cores, and to advance the understanding the impending consequences of climate change while engaging science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). Student learning outcomes were assessed at the completion of the `Polar Discovery Project' for their curiosity, analytical strength, creativity, group collaboration, problem-solving, innovation, and interest in level climate change and the implications of the its effects on polar regions.

A 70-year record of outlet glacier retreat in northern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hill, Emily; Carr, Rachel; Stokes, Chris; Gudmundsson, Hilmar

2017-04-01

Over the past two decades, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has undergone accelerated mass loss increasing its contribution to sea level rise. This is partly attributed to increased mass loss from dynamic marine-terminating outlet glaciers. Despite marine-terminating outlet glaciers in northern Greenland draining 40% of the ice sheet by area, they are comparatively less well-studied than other regions of the ice sheet (e.g. central west or south-east). This region could be susceptible to marine-ice sheet instability due to large proportions of the bedrock rested below sea level and is also unique in the presence of large floating ice tongues. Here, we use a range of satellite imagery sources, accompanied by historical maps, to examine multi-decadal front position changes at 21 outlet glaciers in northern Greenland between 1948 and 2016. We accompany these terminus changes, with annual records of ice velocity, climate-ocean forcing data, and glacier-specific factors (e.g. fjord-width and basal topography) to understand the dominant forcing on glacier dynamics in the region. Over the last 70 years, there has been a clear pattern of glacier retreat in northern Greenland. This is particularly notable during the last two decades, where 62% of our study glaciers showed accelerated retreat. This was most notable at Humboldt, Tracy, Hagen Brae, C. H. Ostenfeld and Petermann Glaciers, and in the case of the latter three glaciers, this involved substantial retreat of their floating ice tongues (> 10 km). Alongside retreat, several study glaciers underwent simultaneous velocity increases. However, the collapse of floating ice tongues did not always result in increased velocity. Similar to other regions of the ice sheet, recent glacier retreat in the northern regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet could be linked to climatic-oceanic forcing, but at this stage this remains largely unknown. This response to external forcing is further complicated by the presence of glacier-surging recorded at several of our study glaciers. As northern Greenland is predicted to undergo greater warming due to Arctic amplification during the 21st century, we conclude that the region could become an increasingly important source of mass loss.

Investigating the Greenland ice sheet evolution under changing climate using a three-dimensional full-Stokes model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

2010-12-01

A three-dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled model is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. The model implements the full-Stokes equations for the ice dynamics, and the system is solved with the finite-element method (FEM) using the open source multi-physics package Elmer (http://www.csc.fi/elmer/). The finite-element mesh for the computational domain has been created using the Greenland surface and bedrock DEM data with a spatial resolution of 5 km (SeaRise community effort, based on Bamber and others, 2001). The study is particularly aimed at better understanding the ice dynamics near the major Greenland ice streams. The meshing procedure starts with the bedrock footprint where a mesh with triangle elements and a resolution of 5 km is constructed. Since the resulting mesh is unnecessarily dense in areas with slow ice dynamics, an anisotropic mesh adaptation procedure has been introduced. Using the measured surface velocities to evaluate the Hessian matrix of the velocities, a metric tensor is computed at the mesh vertices in order to define the adaptation scheme. The resulting meshed footprint obtained with the automatic tool YAMS shows a high density of elements in the vicinities of the North-East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), the Jakobshavn ice stream (JIS) and the Kangerdlugssuaq (KL) and Helheim (HH) glaciers. On the other hand, elements with a coarser resolution are generated away from the ice streams and domain margins. The final three-dimensional mesh is obtained by extruding the 2D footprint with 21 vertical layers, so that the resulting mesh contains 400860 wedge elements and 233583 nodes. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations involves direct and iterative solvers depending on the simulation case, and both methods are coupled with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is prescribed as spatially constant and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. The project goal is to better assess the effects of dynamical changes of the Greenland ice sheet on sea level rise under global-warming conditions. Hence, the simulations have been conducted in order to investigate the ice sheet evolution using the climate forcing experiments defined in the SeaRISE project. For that purpose, four different experiments have been conducted, (i) constant climate control run beginning at present (epoch 2004-1-1 0:0:0) and running up to 500 years holding the climate constant to its present state, (ii) constant climate forcing with increased basal lubrication, (iii) AR4 climate run forced by anomalies derived from results given in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) for the A1B emission scenario, (iv) AR4 climate run with increased basal lubrication.

Space-based Swath Imaging Laser Altimeter for Cryospheric Topographic and Surface Property Mapping

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abshire, James; Harding, David; Shuman, Chris; Sun, Xiaoli; Dabney, Phil; Krainak, Michael; Scambos, Ted

2005-01-01

Uncertainties in the response of the Greenland and Antarctic polar ice sheets to global climatic change inspired the development of ICESat/GLAS as part of NASA's Earth Observing System. ICESat's primary purpose is the measurement of ice sheet surface elevation profiles with sufficient accuracy, spatial density, and temporal coverage so that elevation changes can be derived with an accuracy of <1.5 cm/year for averages of measurements over the ice sheets with areas of 100 x 100 km. The primary means to achieve this elevation change detection is spatial averaging of elevation differences at cross-overs between ascending and descending profiles in areas of low ice surface slope. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seguinot, Julien; Rogozhina, Irina; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Margold, Martin; Kleman, Johan

2016-03-01

After more than a century of geological research, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains among the least understood in terms of its former extent, volume, and dynamics. Because of the mountainous topography on which the ice sheet formed, geological studies have often had only local or regional relevance and shown such a complexity that ice-sheet-wide spatial reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (62.2-56.9 ka) and 2 (23.2-16.9 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.7 ka).

Reading the Ice: Using Remote Sensing to Analyze Radar Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Brandon; Leinmiller-Renick, Kelsey; Foga, Steve

2013-01-01

Understanding the behavior of ice sheets (thick, continent-size ice masses) and glaciers (smaller, flowing masses of ice) is increasingly important as our climate changes, particularly in the Polar Regions. This article describes two lessons, based on the 5E (engage, explore, explain, elaborate, and evaluate) model, that help students practice…

Flooded! An Investigation of Sea-Level Rise in a Changing Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillette, Brandon; Hamilton, Cheri

2011-01-01

Explore how melting ice sheets affect global sea levels. Sea-level rise (SLR) is a rise in the water level of the Earth's oceans. There are two major kinds of ice in the polar regions: sea ice and land ice. Land ice contributes to SLR and sea ice does not. This article explores the characteristics of sea ice and land ice and provides some hands-on…

An ocean-ice coupled response during the last glacial: a view from a marine isotopic stage 3 record south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumaque, J.; Eynaud, F.; Zaragosi, S.; Marret, F.; Matsuzaki, K. M.; Kissel, C.; Roche, D. M.; Malaizé, B.; Michel, E.; Billy, I.; Richter, T.; Palis, E.

2012-12-01

The rapid climatic variability characterising the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 (~60-30 cal ka BP) provides key issues to understand the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere dynamics. Here we investigate the response of sea-surface paleoenvironments to the MIS3 climatic variability through the study of a high resolution oceanic sedimentological archive (core MD99-2281, 60°21' N; 09°27' W; 1197 m water depth), retrieved during the MD114-IMAGES (International Marine Global Change Study) cruise from the southern part of the Faeroe Bank. This sector was under the proximal influence of European ice sheets (Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to the East, British Irish Ice Sheet to the South) during the last glacial and thus probably responded to the MIS3 pulsed climatic changes. We conducted a multi-proxy analysis of core MD99-2281, including magnetic properties, x-ray fluorescence measurements, characterisation of the coarse (>150 μm) lithic fraction (grain concentration) and the analysis of selected biogenic proxies (assemblages and stable isotope ratio of calcareous planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cyst - e.g. dinocyst - assemblages). Results presented here are focussed on the dinocyst response, this proxy providing the reconstruction of past sea-surface hydrological conditions, qualitatively as well as quantitatively (e.g. transfer function sensu lato). Our study documents a very coherent and sensitive oceanic response to the MIS3 rapid climatic variability: strong fluctuations, matching those of stadial/interstadial climatic oscillations as depicted by Greenland ice cores, are recorded in the MD99-2281 archive. Proxies of terrigeneous and detritical material suggest increases in continental advection during Greenland Stadials (including Heinrich events), the latter corresponding also to southward migrations of polar waters. At the opposite, milder sea-surface conditions seem to develop during Greenland Interstadials. After 30 ka, reconstructed paleohydrological conditions evidence strong shifts in SST: this increasing variability seems consistent with the hypothesised coalescence of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at that time, which could have directly influenced sea-surface environments in the vicinity of core MD99-2281.

An Ocean - ice coupled response during the last glacial: zooming on the marine isotopic stage 3 south of the Faeroe Shetland Gateway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zumaque, J.; Eynaud, F.; Zaragosi, S.; Marret, F.; Matsuzaki, K. M.; Kissel, C.; Roche, D. M.; Malaizé, B.; Michel, E.; Billy, I.; Richter, T.; Palis, E.

2012-08-01

The rapid climatic variability characterising the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3 (~ 60-30 CAL-ka BP) provides key issues to understand the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere dynamics. Here we investigate the response of sea-surface paleoenvironments to the MIS3 climatic variability through the study of a high resolution oceanic sedimentological archive (core MD99-2281, 60°21' N; 09°27' W; 1197 m water depth), retrieved during the MD114-IMAGES (International Marine Global Change Study) cruise from the Southern part of the Faeroe Bank. This sector was under the proximal influence of European Ice Sheets (Fennoscandian Ice Sheet to the East, British Irish Ice Sheet to the South) and thus probably recorded their response to the MIS3 pulsed climatic changes. We conducted a multi-proxy analysis on core MD99-2281, including magnetic properties, X-Ray Fluorescence measurements, characterisation of the coarse (> 150 μm) lithic fraction (grain concentration) and the analysis of selected biogenic proxies (assemblages and stable isotope ratio of calcareous planktonic foraminifera, dinoflagellate cyst - e.g. dinocyst - assemblages). Results presented here are focussed on the dinocyst response, this proxy providing the reconstruction of past sea-surface hydrological conditions, qualitatively as well as quantitatively (e.g. transfer function sensu lato). Our study documents a very coherent and sensitive oceanic response to the MIS3 rapid climatic variability: strong fluctuations, matching those of stadial/interstadial climatic oscillations as depicted by Greenland Ice Cores, are recorded in the MD99-2281 archive. Proxies of terrigeneous and detritical material typify increases in continental advection during Greenland Stadials (including Heinrich events), the latter corresponding also to southward migrations of polar waters. At the opposite, milder sea-surface conditions seem to develop during Greenland Interstadials. After 30 ka, reconstructed paleohydrological conditions evidence strong shifts in SST: this increasing variability seems consistent with the hypothesised coalescence of the British and Fennoscandian ice sheets at that time, which could have directly influenced sea-surface environments in the vicinity of core MD99-2281.

Sensitivity of the marine-terminating margins to Holocene climate change in south and southeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Larsen, N. K.; Kjaer, K. H.; Bjork, A. A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Funder, S.; Kelly, M. A.; Howley, J. A.

2016-12-01

The marine-terminating glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) are responding rapidly to present-day climate change. More than one-third of the GrIS's discharge flows to the ocean through the marine-terminating outlet glaciers of southeastern Greenland, making it a potentially important region of the ice sheet. Documenting how these outlet glaciers have responded to longer-term past climate change (i.e. the Holocene) allows for more accurate predictions of their response to future climate changes. Here, we present 36 new 10Be ages on boulders perched on bedrock and on bedrock that record the timing of ice marginal fluctuations in several fjords in southeast and south Greenland, a region where little is known about past ice fluctuations due to its relative inaccessibility. We show that at Skjoldungen Sund (63.4N), deglaciation was rapid, beginning by 10.1 ± 0.4 ka. Deglaciation occurred concurrently at Timmiarmiut Fjord (62.7N), 100 km to the south, at 10.3 ± 0.4 ka. We suggest that this was in response to the warming ocean and air temperatures of the early Holocene. Additionally, 10Be ages on boulders perched on bedrock just distal to the historic­ moraines in Timmiarmiut Fjord date to 1.7 ± 0.1 ka, indicating the presence of a late Holocene advance prior to the Little Ice Age. In southern Greenland, deglaciation at Lindenow Fjord (60.6N), which drains the Julienhåb ice cap, occurred at 11.2 ± 0.4 ka. The ice then retreated up-fjord at a rate of 70-100 m yr-1, comparable with modern retreat rates of 30-100 m yr-1. We hypothesize that the earlier deglaciation at Lindenow Fjord by 1 ka may indicate that the Julienhåb ice cap was more sensitive to early Holocene warming than the GrIS. Additional 10Be ages from Prins Christen Fjord and near Qaqortoq are forthcoming. These new 10Be ages provide a longer-term perspective of marine-terminating outlet glacier fluctuations in Greenland and show that the ice sheet responded sensitively to Holocene climate change.

Terrestrial Ice Sheets: Studies of Climate History, Internal Structure, Surface, and Bedrock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorsteinsson, Th.; Kipfstuhl, J.; Nixdorf, U.; Oerter, H.; Miller, H.; Fritsche, D.; Jung-Rothenhaeusler, F.; Mayer, C.; Schwager, M.; Wilhelms, F.; Steinhage, D.; Goektas, F.

1998-01-01

Recently drilled deep ice cores from Central Greenland (GRIP and GISP2) provide the most detailed results available on climatic variation in the northern hemisphere during the last 100,000 years, a period that includes the Holocene (0-11.5 ka) and most of the Wisconsin glacial period. Summer-winter variation in various physical and chemical properties of polar ice allows dating of ice cores by annual layer counting. Several such methods are currently being employed on an ice core drilled by the new North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP), which is aimed at extending the Greenland ice palaeoclimatic record through the last interglacial, the Eemian. Two examples will be presented: (1) visual and photographic studies of seasonal variation in stratigraphic layering, crystal size, air bubble and clathrate concentration, and (2) studies of electric stratigraphy, using the method of dielectric profiling (DEP). This method records the AC conductivity of ice cores, which is negatively correlated with the concentration of airborne dust in the ice but positively correlated with volcanic and marine aerosols. Comprehensive surface traverse programs, which include shallow coring and ice velocity measurements, have recently been carried out by the Alfred Wegener Institute in previously little-investigated regions of Greenland and Antarctica. Serving partly as reconnaissance prior to deep drilling projects, such studies also help to reduce considerable uncertainties in the mass balance of the two large polar ice sheets and thus in their estimated response to climate change. Main results of a recent traverse in North Greenland include the following: (1) A new map of the accumulation distribution on the ice sheet indicates a large low-accumulation region in Northeast-Greenland; (2) North Greenland records show significantly greater climatic variability during the last 500 yr than corresponding records from the southern part of the ice sheet; and (3) data on variation in accumulation rates do not indicate a definite trend in the region during this century. The Alfred Wegener Institute has in recent years employed both airborne and ground-penetrating ice radar systems to map the bedrock around deep drilling sites in Central and North Greenland, as well as in a planned Antarctic site in Dronning Maud Land. The radar also records shallow and deep internal echoes, caused by rapid variation in density and ice acidity in layers of certain ages, allowing isochrones to be traced over wide reaches of the ice sheet. Disturbances in regular stratigraphic layering, due to ice flow over an irregular bed, were observed in the lowest 200-300 m of the GRIP and GISP2 ice cores. Since the aim of the new NGRIP coring program is to obtain an ice core reaching further back in time than the Central Greenland cores, this site was chosen in a region where the bedrock is relatively flat. Echo-sounding surveys between GRIP and NGREP show that the isochrones lie 100-200 in higher above the bed at NGRIP, indicating that the Eemian layer is unlikely to have been disturbed by ice flow at this location. Due to the flow pattern of ice sheets, layers forming a vertical sequence in the interior regions of an ice sheet can, under favorable conditions, be traced on horizontal profiles at the margins. Some meaningful correlations have already been established between Greenland deep ice core climatic records and corresponding records from ice margins. In these regions, a clear contrast is observed between ice of Holocene origin and significantly darker-looking ice dating from the Wisconsin glacial period, which displays summertime ablation rates 2-4x higher than the Holocene ice. This difference is due to higher concentrations of dust and other impurities in the Wisconsin ice, by 1-2 orders of magnitude, leading to reduced albedo. Furthermore, smaller crystal sizes in the Wisconsin ice lead to a more homogeneous distribution of impurities on the surface, which probably contributes to lowering the albedo. Comprehensive studies of ice crystal size and c-axis orientations on the GRIP and NGRIP deep cores provide detailed information on recrystallization processes in polar ice sheets. Based on the GRIP results, the Central-Greenland ice sheet can be vertically divided into three different recrystallization regimes: (1) normal grain growth regime (0-700 in), in which the average crystal size increases steadily to 4mm diameter; (2) polygonization regime (700-2800m), in which crystals are subdivided due to increasing strain and no further increase in crystal size is observed; and (3) migration recrystallization regime (2800-3050m), where higher temperatures (-10C) cause rapid crystal growth with average diameters increasing to 30 mm in the bottom layers. Higher impurity content in ice dating from glacial periods is seen to exert a strong inhibitive effect on crystal growth. The data on c-axis fabrics demonstrate the development of crystalline anisotropy with depth, leading to significant variation in flow properties. In particular, strong rheological contrasts are observed between glacial and interglacial ice, with fine-grained ice dating from glacial periods deforming more rapidly under conditions of simple shear than more coarse-grained interglacial ice. When the dynamics of ice masses are addressed by modeling, special attention must be given to the transition zone between ice resting on bedrock and floating ice shelves. One application for numerical ice-dynamics models that deal with such transition zones is the investigation of areas with special mass balance characteristics, like ice streams entering ice shelves or ice sheet areas over subglacial lakes. Recent results from a model applied to the ice above Lake Vostok in East Antarctica indicate that comparatively strong basal melting and adjacent refreezing occur close to the western shore of the lake.

Possible contribution of ice-sheet/lithosphere interactions to past glaciological changes in Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alley, R. B.; Parizek, B. R.; Anandakrishnan, S.; Pollard, D.; Stevens, N. T.; Pourpoint, M.

2017-12-01

Ice-lithosphere interactions may have influenced the history of ice-sheet sensitivity to climate change. The Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is sensitive to warming, and is likely to be largely removed if subjected to relatively small additional temperature increases. The recent report (Schaefer et al., 2016, Nature) of near-complete GIS removal under modest Pleistocene forcing suggests that GIS sensitivity may be even greater than generally modeled, but lack of major Holocene retreat is more consistent with existing models. As shown by Stevens et al. (2016, JGR), peak lithospheric flexural stresses associated with ice-age GIS cycling are of the same order as dike-driving stresses in plutonic systems, and migrate over ice-age cycles. The full analysis by Stevens et al. suggests the possibility that the onset of cyclic ice-sheet loading allowed deep melt associated with the passage of the Icelandic hot spot beneath Greenland to work up though the crust to or near the base of the ice sheet, helping explain the anomalous geothermal heat fluxes observed at the head of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and elsewhere in the northern part of GIS. If ice-age cycling aided extraction of an existing reservoir of melted rock, then geothermal heat flux would have risen with the onset of extraction and migration, but with a subsequent fall associated with reservoir depletion. Simple parameterized flow-model simulations confirm intuition that a higher geothermal flux makes deglaciation easier, with the northern part of the ice sheet especially important. Large uncertainties remain in quantification, but we suggest the hypothesis that, following the onset of ice-age cycling, deglaciation of the GIS first became easier and then more difficult in response to feedbacks involving the ice sheet and the geological system beneath. In turn, this suggests that evidence of past deglaciation under moderate forcing is consistent with existing ice-sheet models.

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.

2011-01-01

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

1999-01-01

The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

Bedrock Erosion Surfaces Record Former East Antarctic Ice Sheet Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxman, Guy J. G.; Jamieson, Stewart S. R.; Ferraccioli, Fausto; Bentley, Michael J.; Ross, Neil; Armadillo, Egidio; Gasson, Edward G. W.; Leitchenkov, German; DeConto, Robert M.

2018-05-01

East Antarctica hosts large subglacial basins into which the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) likely retreated during past warmer climates. However, the extent of retreat remains poorly constrained, making quantifying past and predicted future contributions to global sea level rise from these marine basins challenging. Geomorphological analysis and flexural modeling within the Wilkes Subglacial Basin are used to reconstruct the ice margin during warm intervals of the Oligocene-Miocene. Flat-lying bedrock plateaus are indicative of an ice sheet margin positioned >400-500 km inland of the modern grounding zone for extended periods of the Oligocene-Miocene, equivalent to a 2-m rise in global sea level. Our findings imply that if major EAIS retreat occurs in the future, isostatic rebound will enable the plateau surfaces to act as seeding points for extensive ice rises, thus limiting extensive ice margin retreat of the scale seen during the early EAIS.

Heat sources within the Greenland Ice Sheet: dissipation, temperate paleo-firn and cryo-hydrologic warming

DOE PAGES

Lüthi, M. P.; Ryser, C.; Andrews, L. C.; ...

2015-01-01

Ice temperature profiles from the Greenland Ice Sheet contain information on the deformation history, past climates and recent warming. We present full-depth temperature profiles from two drill sites on a flow line passing through Swiss Camp, West Greenland. Numerical modeling reveals that ice temperatures are considerably higher than would be expected from heat diffusion and dissipation alone. The possible causes for this extra heat are evaluated using a Lagrangian heat flow model. The model results reveal that the observations can be explained with a combination of different processes: enhanced dissipation (strain heating) in ice-age ice, temperate paleo-firn, and cryo-hydrologic warmingmore » in deep crevasses.« less

Delayed build-up of Arctic ice sheets during 400,000-year minima in insolation variability.

PubMed

Hao, Qingzhen; Wang, Luo; Oldfield, Frank; Peng, Shuzhen; Qin, Li; Song, Yang; Xu, Bing; Qiao, Yansong; Bloemendal, Jan; Guo, Zhengtang

2012-10-18

Knowledge of the past variability of climate at high northern latitudes during astronomical analogues of the present interglacial may help to inform our understanding of future climate change. Unfortunately, long-term continuous records of ice-sheet variability in the Northern Hemisphere only are scarce because records of benthic (18)O content represent an integrated signal of changes in ice volume in both polar regions. However, variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets influence the Siberian High (an atmospheric pressure system), so variations in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)--as recorded in the aeolian dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau--can serve as a useful proxy of Arctic climate variability before the ice-core record begins. Here we present an EAWM proxy record using grain-size variations in two parallel loess sections representative of sequences across the whole of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 900,000 years. The results show that during periods of low eccentricity and precessional variability at approximately 400,000-year intervals, the grain-size-inferred intensity of the EAWM remains weak for up to 20,000 years after the end of the interglacial episode of high summer monsoon activity and strong pedogenesis. In contrast, there is a rapid increase in the EAWM after the end of most other interglacials. We conclude that, for both the 400,000-year interglacials, the weak EAWM winds maintain a mild, non-glacial climate at high northern latitudes for much longer than expected from the conventional loess and marine oxygen isotope records. During these times, the less-severe summer insolation minima at 65° N (ref. 4) would have suppressed ice and snow accumulation, leading to a weak Siberian High and, consequently, weak EAWM winds.

Assimilating the ICE-6G_C Reconstruction of the Latest Quaternary Ice Age Cycle Into Numerical Simulations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuhne, G. R.; Peltier, W. R.

2017-12-01

We analyze the effects of nudging 100 kyr numerical simulations of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets toward the glacial isostatic adjustment-based (GIA-based) ICE-6G_C reconstruction of the most recent ice age cycle. Starting with the ice physics approximations of the PISM ice sheet model and the SeaRISE simulation protocols, we incorporate nudging at characteristic time scales, τf, through anomalous mass balance terms in the ice mass conservation equation. As should be expected, these mass balances exhibit physically unrealistic details arising from pure GIA-based reconstruction geometry when nudging is very strong (τf=20 years for North America), while weakly nudged (τf=1,000 years) solutions deviate from ICE-6G_C sufficiently to degrade its observational fit quality. For reasonable intermediate time scales (τf=100 years and 200 years), we perturbatively analyze nudged ice dynamics as a superposition of "leading-order smoothing" that diffuses ICE-6G_C in a physically and observationally consistent manner and "higher-order" deviations arising, for instance, from biases in the time dependence of surface climate boundary conditions. Based upon the relative deviations between respective nudged simulations in which these biases follow surface temperature from ice cores and eustatic sea level from marine sediment cores, we compute "ice core climate adjustments" that suggest how local paleoclimate observations may be applied to the systematic refinement of ICE-6G_C. Our results are consistent with a growing body of evidence suggesting that the geographical origins of Meltwater Pulse 1B (MWP1b) may lie primarily in North America as opposed to Antarctica (as reconstructed in ICE-6G_C).

Present and Future Surface Mass Budget of Small Arctic Ice Caps in a High Resolution Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mottram, Ruth; Langen, Peter; Koldtoft, Iben; Midefelt, Linnea; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens

2016-04-01

Globally, small ice caps and glaciers make a substantial contribution to sea level rise; this is also true in the Arctic. Around Greenland small ice caps are surprisingly important to the total mass balance from the island as their marginal coastal position means they receive a large amount of precipitation and also experience high surface melt rates. Since small ice caps and glaciers have had a disproportionate number of long-term monitoring and observational schemes in the Arctic, likely due to their relative accessibility, they can also be a valuable source of data. However, in climate models the surface mass balance contributions are often not distinguished from the main ice sheet and the presence of high relief topography is difficult to capture in coarse resolution climate models. At the same time, the diminutive size of marginal ice masses in comparison to the ice sheet makes modelling their ice dynamics difficult. Using observational data from the Devon Ice Cap in Arctic Canada and the Renland Ice Cap in Eastern Greenland, we assess the success of a very high resolution (~5km) regional climate model, HIRHAM5 in capturing the surface mass balance (SMB) of these small ice caps. The model is forced with ERA-Interim and we compare observed mean SMB and the interannual variability to assess model performance. The steep gradient in topography around Renland is challenging for climate models and additional statistical corrections are required to fit the calculated surface mass balance to the high relief topography. Results from a modelling experiment at Renland Ice Cap shows that this technique produces a better fit between modelled and observed surface topography. We apply this statistical relationship to modelled SMB on the Devon Ice Cap and use the long time series of observations from this glacier to evaluate the model and the smoothed SMB. Measured SMB values from a number of other small ice caps including Mittivakkat and A.P. Olsen ice cap are also compared with model output. Finally we use climate simulations forced with two different RCP scenarios to examine the likely future evolution of SMB over these small ice masses.

Continuous, Pulsed Export of Methane-Supersaturated Meltwaters from the Bed of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamarche-Gagnon, G.; Wadham, J.; Beaton, A.; Fietzek, P.; Stanley, K. M.; Tedstone, A.; Sherwood Lollar, B.; Lacrampe Couloume, G.; Telling, J.; Liz, B.; Hawkings, J.; Kohler, T. J.; Zarsky, J. D.; Stibal, M.; Mowlem, M. C.

2016-12-01

Both past and present ice sheets have been proposed to cap large quantities of methane (CH4), on orders of magnitude significant enough to impact global greenhouse gas concentrations during periods of rapid ice retreat. However, to date most evidence for sub-ice sheet methane has been indirect, derived from calculations of the methanogenic potential of basal-ice microbial communities and biogeochemical models; field-based empirical measurements are lacking from large ice sheet catchments. Here, we present the first continuous, in situ record of dissolved methane export from a large catchment of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in South West Greenland from May-July 2015. Our results indicate that glacial runoff was continuously supersaturated with methane over the observation period (dissolved CH4 concentrations of 30-700 nM), with total methane flux rising as subglacial discharge increased. Periodic subglacial drainage events, characterised by rapid changes (i.e. pulses) in meltwater hydrochemistry, also coincided with a rise in methane concentrations. We argue that these are likely indicative of the flushing of subglacial reservoirs of CH4 beneath the ice sheet. Total methane export was relatively modest when compared to global methane budgets, but too high to be explained by previously determined methanogenic rates from Greenland basal ice. Discrepancies between estimated Greenland methane reserves and observed fluxes stress the need to further investigate GrIS methane fluxes and sources, and suggest a more biogeochemically active subglacial environment than previously considered. Results indicate that future warming, and a coincident increase in ice melt rates, would likely make the GrIS, and by extension the Antarctic Ice Sheet, more significant sources of atmospheric methane, consequently acting as a positive feedback to a warming climate.

Translating hydrologically-relevant variables from the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Greenland Analog Project hydrologic modeling domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallot, Dorothée; Applegate, Patrick; Pettersson, Rickard

2013-04-01

Projecting future climate and ice sheet development requires sophisticated models and extensive field observations. Given the present state of our knowledge, it is very difficult to say what will happen with certainty. Despite the ongoing increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the possibility that a new ice sheet might form over Scandinavia in the far distant future cannot be excluded. The growth of a new Scandinavian Ice Sheet would have important consequences for buried nuclear waste repositories. The Greenland Analogue Project, initiated by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB), is working to assess the effects of a possible future ice sheet on groundwater flow by studying a constrained domain in Western Greenland by field measurements (including deep bedrock drilling in front of the ice sheet) combined with numerical modeling. To address the needs of the GAP project, we interpolated results from an ensemble of ice sheet model runs to the smaller and more finely resolved modeling domain used in the GAP project's hydrologic modeling. Three runs have been chosen with three fairly different positive degree-day factors among those that reproduced the modern ice margin at the borehole position. The interpolated results describe changes in hydrologically-relevant variables over two time periods, 115 ka to 80 ka, and 20 ka to 1 ka. In the first of these time periods, the ice margin advances over the model domain; in the second time period, the ice margin retreats over the model domain. The spatially-and temporally dependent variables that we treated include the ice thickness, basal melting rate, surface mass balance, basal temperature, basal thermal regime (frozen or thawed), surface temperature, and basal water pressure. The melt flux is also calculated.

The influence of meltwater on the thermal structure and flow of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poinar, Kristin

As the climate has warmed over the past decades, the amount of melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased, and areas higher on the ice sheet have begun to melt regularly. This increase in melt has been hypothesized to enhance ice flow in myriad ways, including through basal lubrication and englacial refreezing. By developing and interpreting thermal ice-sheet models and analyzing remote sensing data, I evaluate the effect of these processes on ice flow and sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. I first develop a thermal ice sheet model that is applicable to western Greenland. Key components of this model are its treatment of multiple phases (solid ice and liquid water) and its viscosity-dependent velocity field. I apply the model to Jakobshavn Isbrae, a fast-flowing outlet glacier. This is an important benchmark for my model, which I next apply to the topics outlined above. I use the thermal model to calculate the effect of englacial latent-heat transfer (meltwater refreezing within englacial features such as firn and crevasses) on ice dynamics in western Greenland. I find that in slow-moving areas, this can significantly warm the ice, but that englacial latent heat transfer has only a minimal effect on ice motion (60%) of the ice flux into the ocean, evidence of deep englacial warming is virtually absent. Thus, the effects of englacial latent heat transfer on ice motion are likely limited to slow-moving regions, which limits its importance to ice-sheet mass balance. Next, I couple a model for ice fracture to a modified version of my thermal model to calculate the depth and shape evolution of water-filled crevasses that form in crevasse fields. At most elevations and for typical water input volumes, crevasses penetrate to the top ~200--300 meters depth, warm the ice there by ~10°C, and may persist englacially, in a liquid state, for multiple decades. The surface hydrological network limits the amount of water that can reach most crevasses. We find that the depth and longevity of such crevasses is relatively robust to realistic increases in melt volumes over the coming century, so that we should not expect large changes in the englacial hydrological system under near-future climate regimes. These inferences put important constraints on the timescales of the Greenland supraglacial-to-subglacial water cycle. Finally, I assess the likelihood that higher-elevation surface melt could deliver water to regions where the bed is currently frozen. This hypothetical process is important because it could potentially greatly accelerate the seaward motion of the ice sheet. By analyzing surface strain rates and comparing them to my modeled basal temperature field, I find that this scenario is unlikely to occur: the conditions necessary to form surface-to-bed conduits are rarely found at higher elevations (~1600 meters) that may overlie frozen beds.

A Historical Forcing Ice Sheet Model Validation Framework for Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, S. F.; Hoffman, M. J.; Howat, I. M.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Kalashnikova, I.; Neumann, T.; Nowicki, S.; Perego, M.; Salinger, A.

2014-12-01

We propose an ice sheet model testing and validation framework for Greenland for the years 2000 to the present. Following Perego et al. (2014), we start with a realistic ice sheet initial condition that is in quasi-equilibrium with climate forcing from the late 1990's. This initial condition is integrated forward in time while simultaneously applying (1) surface mass balance forcing (van Angelen et al., 2013) and (2) outlet glacier flux anomalies, defined using a new dataset of Greenland outlet glacier flux for the past decade (Enderlin et al., 2014). Modeled rates of mass and elevation change are compared directly to remote sensing observations obtained from GRACE and ICESat. Here, we present a detailed description of the proposed validation framework including the ice sheet model and model forcing approach, the model-to-observation comparison process, and initial results comparing model output and observations for the time period 2000-2013.

Did the Laurentide ice sheet survive through Marine Isotope Stage 9?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, A. E.; Tarasov, L.; Ullman, D. J.

2016-12-01

Looking at the global benthic oxygen isotope stack, only marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 7 stands out as an anomalous interglaciation with a higher oxygen isotope value than other interglaciations of the last half million years. However, benthic oxygen isotopes are an integrator of global ice volume plus temperature, and records of local ice-sheet change are needed to partition the sources of the global signal. Here we use the Laurentide ice-sheet (LIS) proximal record of IODP Site U1302/1303 off of Orphan Knoll to test LIS presence/absence on the eastern Canadian shield. Ice-sheet model calibrated Si relative to Sr is low in most interglaciations of the last 500 ka reflecting the removal of the LIS and its erosive power from the Canadian Shield. However, like MIS 7, MIS 9 has continued elevated inputs of Si. Furthermore, planktic oxygen isotopes do not decrease to full interglacial levels like in MIS 1, 5e and 11. MIS 9 had a similar orbital forcing as MIS 5e, but a much shorter period of elevated interglacial carbon dioxide concentration. Based on climate model simulations of LIS stability, we suggest that the reduced period of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide allowed the LIS to survive through MIS 9 (like MIS 7), providing important constraints for the climatic thresholds necessary for a full interglaciation.

The Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) - Part 1: Model description

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, R.; Martin, M. A.; Haseloff, M.; Albrecht, T.; Bueler, E.; Khroulev, C.; Levermann, A.

2010-08-01

We present the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK), developed at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research to be used for simulations of large-scale ice sheet-shelf systems. It is derived from the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (Bueler and Brown, 2009). Velocities are calculated by superposition of two shallow stress balance approximations within the entire ice covered region: the shallow ice approximation (SIA) is dominant in grounded regions and accounts for shear deformation parallel to the geoid. The plug-flow type shallow shelf approximation (SSA) dominates the velocity field in ice shelf regions and serves as a basal sliding velocity in grounded regions. Ice streams naturally emerge through this approach and can be identified diagnostically as regions with a significant contribution of membrane stresses to the local momentum balance. All lateral boundaries in PISM-PIK are free to evolve, including the grounding line and ice fronts. Ice shelf margins in particular are modeled using Neumann boundary conditions for the SSA equations, reflecting a hydrostatic stress imbalance along the vertical calving face. The ice front position is modeled using a subgrid scale representation of calving front motion (Albrecht et al., 2010) and a physically motivated dynamic calving law based on horizontal spreading rates. The model is validated within the Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP) and is used for a dynamic equilibrium simulation of Antarctica under present-day conditions in the second part of this paper (Martin et al., 2010).

Inspiration & Insight - a tribute to Niels Reeh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlstrom, A. P.; Vieli, A.

2009-12-01

Niels Reeh was highly regarded for his contributions to glaciology, specifically through his rigorous combination of numerical modelling and field observations. In 1966 he began his work on the application of beam mechanics to floating glaciers and ice shelves and throughout his life, Niels retained a strong interest in modelling glacier dynamics. In the early 1980s Niels developed a 3D-model for ice sheets and in the late 1980s an advanced flow-line model. Niels Reeh also took part in the early ice-core drilling efforts in Greenland and later pioneered the concept of retrieving similar records from the surface of the ice-sheet margin. Mass balance of glaciers and ice sheets was another theme in Niels Reeh’s research, with a number of important contributions and insights still used when teaching the subject to students. Niels developed elegant models for ablation and snow densification, notable for their applicability in large-scale ice-sheet models and studied the impact of climate change on ice sheets and glaciers. Niels also took his interest in ice-dynamics and mass balance into remote sensing and worked successfully on methods to utilize radar and laser data from airborne surveys and satellites in glaciology. In this, he pioneered the combination of field experiments, satellite observations and numerical modelling to solve problems on the Greenland Ice Sheet. In this presentation we will attempt to provide an overview of Niels Reeh’s many-facetted career in acknowledgement of his contributions to the field of glaciology.

The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

2014-03-01

Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

A New Ice-sheet / Ocean Interaction Model for Greenland Fjords using High-Order Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopera, M. A.; Maslowski, W.; Giraldo, F.

2015-12-01

One of the key outstanding challenges in modeling of climate change and sea-level rise is the ice-sheet/ocean interaction in narrow, elongated and geometrically complicated fjords around Greenland. To address this challenge we propose a new approach, a separate fjord model using discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods, or FDG. The goal of this project is to build a separate, high-resolution module for use in Earth System Models (ESMs) to realistically represent the fjord bathymetry, coastlines, exchanges with the outside ocean, circulation and fine-scale processes occurring within the fjord and interactions at the ice shelf interface. FDG is currently at the first stage of development. The DG method provides FDG with high-order accuracy as well as geometrical flexibility, including the capacity to handle non-conforming adaptive mesh refinement to resolve the processes occurring near the ice-sheet/ocean interface without introducing prohibitive computational costs. Another benefit of this method is its excellent performance on multi- and many-core architectures, which allows for utilizing modern high performance computing systems for high-resolution simulations. The non-hydrostatic model of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation will account for the stationary ice-shelf with sub-shelf ocean interaction, basal melting and subglacial meltwater influx and with boundary conditions at the surface to account for floating sea ice. The boundary conditions will be provided to FDG via a flux coupler to emulate the integration with an ESM. Initially, FDG will be tested for the Sermilik Fjord settings, using real bathymetry, boundary and initial conditions, and evaluated against available observations and other model results for this fjord. The overarching goal of the project is to be able to resolve the ice-sheet/ocean interactions around the entire coast of Greenland and two-way coupling with regional and global climate models such as the Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), Community Earth System Model (CESM) or Advanced Climate Model for Energy (ACME).

The evolution and geological footprint of the last Eurasian ice-sheet complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, Henry; Hubbard, Alun; Andreassen, Karin; Winsborrow, Monica; Stroeven, Arjen; Auriac, Amandine; Heyman, Jakob

2017-04-01

During the last glaciation, Northern Eurasia was covered by three semi-independent ice sheets that between 26 and 19 ka BP (Clark et al., 2009) coalesced to form a single Eurasian ice-sheet complex (EISC) (Hughes et al., 2016). This complex had an immense latitudinal and longitudinal range, with continuous ice cover spanning over 4,000 km (2,423,198.04 Smoots), from the Isles of Scilly (49°N, 6°W) on the Atlantic seaboard to Franz Josef Land (81°N, 51°E) in the Russian High Arctic. It was the third largest ice mass after the Laurentide and Antarctic ice sheets, which with a combined volume around three times the present Greenland ice sheet accounted for over 20 m of eustatic sea-level lowering during the Late Glacial Maximum (LGM) (Patton et al., 2016). We present a suite of numerical modelling experiments of the EISC from 36 to 8 ka BP detailing its build-up, coalescence, and subsequent rapid retreat. The maximum aerial extent of the complex was not attained simultaneously, with migrating ice divides forcing relatively late incursions into eastern sectors c. 20-21 ka BP compared to c. 23-25 ka BP along western margins. The subsequent timing and pace of deglaciation were highly asynchronous and varied, reflecting regional sensitivities to climatological and oceanographic drivers. Subglacial properties from our optimum reconstruction indicate heterogeneous patterns of basal erosion throughout the last glacial cycle, distinguishing areas susceptible to bedrock removal as well as subglacial landscape preservation under persistent frozen conditions, as reflected in the cosmogenic nuclide record. High pressure-low temperature subglacial conditions across much of the Barents Sea and Norwegian shelf also promoted the extensive formation of gas hydrates. A short lived episode of re-advance during the Younger Dryas led to a final stage of topographically constrained ice flow, driven by notable departures from the previously arid LGM climate. The ice sheet complex along with its isostatic footprint had a major impact on fluvial hydrology of western Eurasia, damming the Baltic and White Sea proglacial lakes from c. 17.8 ka BP through to the Holocene and diverting many river systems. Acknowledegments This project is funded by CAGE (Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate), Norwegian Research Council grant no. 223259. Clark, P.U., Dyke, A.S., Shakun, J.D., Carlson, A.E., Clark, J., Wohlfarth, B., Mitrovica, J.X., Hostetler, S.W., McCabe, a M., 2009. The Last Glacial Maximum. Science 325, 710-714. doi:10.1126/science.1172873 Hughes, A.L.C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø.S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J.I., 2016. The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas 45, 1-45. doi:10.1111/bor.12142 Patton, H., Hubbard, A., Andreassen, K., Winsborrow, M., Stroeven, A.P., 2016. The build-up, configuration, and dynamical sensitivity of the Eurasian ice-sheet complex to Late Weichselian climatic and oceanic forcing. Quat. Sci. Rev. 153, 97-121. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2016.10.009

Greenland ice sheet surface temperature, melt and mass loss: 2000-06

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, D.K.; Williams, R.S.; Luthcke, S.B.; DiGirolamo, N.E.

2008-01-01

A daily time series of 'clear-sky' surface temperature has been compiled of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using 1 km resolution moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) maps from 2000 to 2006. We also used mass-concentration data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to study mass change in relationship to surface melt from 2003 to 2006. The mean LST of the GIS increased during the study period by ???0.27??Ca-1. The increase was especially notable in the northern half of the ice sheet during the winter months. Melt-season length and timing were also studied in each of the six major drainage basins. Rapid (<15 days) and sustained mass loss below 2000 m elevation was triggered in 2004 and 2005 as recorded by GRACE when surface melt begins. Initiation of large-scale surface melt was followed rapidly by mass loss. This indicates that surface meltwater is flowing rapidly to the base of the ice sheet, causing acceleration of outlet glaciers, thus highlighting the metastability of parts of the GIS and the vulnerability of the ice sheet to air-temperature increases. If air temperatures continue to rise over Greenland, increased surface melt will play a large role in ice-sheet mass loss.

Surface Energy and Mass Balance Model for Greenland Ice Sheet and Future Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaojian

The Greenland Ice Sheet contains nearly 3 million cubic kilometers of glacial ice. If the entire ice sheet completely melted, sea level would raise by nearly 7 meters. There is thus considerable interest in monitoring the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Each year, the ice sheet gains ice from snowfall and loses ice through iceberg calving and surface melting. In this thesis, we develop, validate and apply a physics based numerical model to estimate current and future surface mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The numerical model consists of a coupled surface energy balance and englacial model that is simple enough that it can be used for long time scale model runs, but unlike previous empirical parameterizations, has a physical basis. The surface energy balance model predicts ice sheet surface temperature and melt production. The englacial model predicts the evolution of temperature and meltwater within the ice sheet. These two models can be combined with estimates of precipitation (snowfall) to estimate the mass balance over the Greenland Ice Sheet. We first compare model performance with in-situ observations to demonstrate that the model works well. We next evaluate how predictions are degraded when we statistically downscale global climate data. We find that a simple, nearest neighbor interpolation scheme with a lapse rate correction is able to adequately reproduce melt patterns on the Greenland Ice Sheet. These results are comparable to those obtained using empirical Positive Degree Day (PDD) methods. Having validated the model, we next drove the ice sheet model using the suite of atmospheric model runs available through the CMIP5 atmospheric model inter-comparison, which in turn built upon the RCP 8.5 (business as usual) scenarios. From this exercise we predict how much surface melt production will increase in the coming century. This results in 4-10 cm sea level equivalent, depending on the CMIP5 models. Finally, we try to bound melt water production from CMIP5 data with the model by assuming that the Greenland Ice Sheet is covered in black carbon (lowering the albedo) and perpetually covered by optically thick clouds (increasing long wave radiation). This upper bound roughly triples surface meltwater production, resulting in 30 cm of sea level rise by 2100. These model estimates, combined with prior research suggesting an additional 40-100 cm of sea level rise associated with dynamical discharge, suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet is poised to contribute significantly to sea level rise in the coming century.

The Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Glacial-Interglacial Oceanic Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabone, I.; Blasco Navarro, J.; Robinson, A.; Alvarez-Solas, J.; Montoya, M.

2017-12-01

Up to now, the scientific community has mainly focused on the sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to atmospheric variations. However, several studies suggest that the enhanced ice mass loss experienced by the GrIS in the past decades is directly connected to the increasing North Atlantic temperatures. Melting of GrIS outlet glaciers triggers grounding-line retreat increasing ice discharge into the ocean. This new evidence leads to consider the ocean as a relevant driver to be taken into account when modeling the evolution of the GrIS. The ice-ocean interaction is a primary factor controling not only the likely future retreat of GrIS outlet glaciers, or the huge ice loss in past warming climates, but also, and more strongly, the past GrIS glacial expansion. The latter assumption is supported by reconstructions which propose the GrIS to be fully marine-based during glacials, and thus more exposed to the influence of the ocean. Here, for the first time, we investigate the response of the GrIS to past oceanic changes using a three-dimensional hybrid ice-sheet/ice-shelf model, which combines the Shallow Ice Approximation (SIA) for slow grounded ice sheets and the Shallow Shelf Approximation (SSA) in ice shelves and ice streams. The model accounts for a time-dependent parametrisation of the marine basal melting rate, which is used to reproduce past oceanic variations. In this work simulations of the last two glacial cycles are performed. Our results show that the GrIS is very sensitive to the ocean-triggered submarine melting (freezing). Mild oceanic temperature variations lead to a rapid retreat (expansion) of the GrIS margins, which, inducing a dynamic adjustment of the grounded ice sheet, drive the evolution of the whole ice sheet. Our results strongly suggest the need to consider the ocean as an active forcing in paleo ice sheet models.

Surface Melt and Firn Density Evolution in the Western Greenland Percolation Zone Over the Past 50 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hawley, R. L.; Thundercloud, Z. R.; Marshall, H. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Lewis, G.

2016-12-01

Predictions of the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GIS) contribution to sea-level rise in a warming climate depend on our ability to model the surface mass balance (SMB) processes occurring across the ice sheet. These processes are poorly constrained in the percolation zone, the region of the ice sheet where surface melt refreezes in the firn, thus preventing that melt from directly contributing to GIS mass loss. In this way, the percolation zone serves as a buffer to higher temperatures increasing mass loss. However, it is unknown how the percolation zone is evolving in a changing climate and to what extent the region will continue to serve as a buffer to future runoff. We collected seven shallow ( 22-30 m) firn cores from the Western Greenland percolation zone in May-June 2016 as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Here we present data on melt layer stratigraphy, density, and annual accumulation for each core to determine: (1) the temporal and spatial accumulation and melt refreeze patterns in the percolation zone of W. Greenland over the past 40 - 55 years, and (2) the impacts of changing melt and refreeze patterns on the near-surface density profile of the percolation zone. Three of the GreenTrACS firn cores re-occupy firn core sites collected in the 1970's-1990's, allowing us to more accurately quantify the evolution of the percolation zone surface melt and firn density during the most recent decades of summertime warming. This work is the basis for broader investigations into how changes in W. Greenland summertime climate are impacting the SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Biological response to climate change in the Arctic Ocean: The view from the past

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.; Cronin, Matthew A.

2017-01-01

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid climatic changes including higher ocean temperatures, reduced sea ice, glacier and Greenland Ice Sheet melting, greater marine productivity, and altered carbon cycling. Until recently, the relationship between climate and Arctic biological systems was poorly known, but this has changed substantially as advances in paleoclimatology, micropaleontology, vertebrate paleontology, and molecular genetics show that Arctic ecosystem history reflects global and regional climatic changes over all timescales and climate states (103–107 years). Arctic climatic extremes include 25°C hyperthermal periods during the Paleocene-Eocene (56–46 million years ago, Ma), Quaternary glacial periods when thick ice shelves and sea ice cover rendered the Arctic Ocean nearly uninhabitable, seasonally sea-ice-free interglacials and abrupt climate reversals. Climate-driven biological impacts included large changes in species diversity, primary productivity, species’ geographic range shifts into and out of the Arctic, community restructuring, and possible hybridization, but evidence is not sufficient to determine whether or when major episodes of extinction occurred.

The projected demise of Barnes Ice Cap: Evidence of an unusually warm 21st century Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, A.; Flowers, G. E.; Miller, G. H.; Refsnider, K. A.; Young, N. E.; Radić, V.

2017-03-01

As a remnant of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Barnes Ice Cap owes its existence and present form in part to the climate of the last glacial period. The ice cap has been sustained in the present interglacial climate by its own topography through the mass balance-elevation feedback. A coupled mass balance and ice-flow model, forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model output, projects that the current ice cap will likely disappear in the next 300 years. For greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways of +2.6 to +8.5 Wm-2, the projected ice-cap survival times range from 150 to 530 years. Measured concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be, 26Al, and 14C at sites exposed near the ice-cap margin suggest the pending disappearance of Barnes Ice Cap is very unusual in the last million years. The data and models together point to an exceptionally warm 21st century Arctic climate.

Ice Sheet History from Antarctic Continental Margin Sediments: The ANTOSTRAT Approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barker, P.F.; Barrett, P.J.; Camerlenghi, A.; Cooper, A. K.; Davey, F.J.; Domack, E.W.; Escutia, C.; Kristoffersen, Y.; O'Brien, P.E.

1998-01-01

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is today an important part of the global climate engine, and probably has been so for most of its long existence. However, the details of its history are poorly known, despite the measurement and use, over two decades, of low-latitude proxies of ice sheet volume. An additional way of determining ice sheet history is now available, based on understanding terrigenous sediment transport and deposition under a glacial regime. It requires direct sampling of the prograded wedge of glacial sediments deposited at the Antarctic continental margin (and of derived sediments on the continental rise) at a small number of key sites, and combines the resulting data using numerical models of ice sheet development. The new phase of sampling is embodied mainly in a suite of proposals to the Ocean Drilling Program, generated by separate regional proponent groups co-ordinated through ANTOSTRAT (the Antarctic Offshore Acoustic Stratigraphy initiative). The first set of margin sites has now been drilled as ODP Leg 178 to the Antarctic Peninsula margin, and a first, short season of inshore drilling at Cape Roberts, Ross Sea, has been completed. Leg 178 and Cape Roberts drilling results are described briefly here, together with an outline of key elements of the overall strategy for determining glacial history, and of the potential contributions of drilling other Antarctic margins investigated by ANTOSTRAT. ODP Leg 178 also recovered continuous ultra-high-resolution Holocene biogenic sections at two sites within a protected, glacially-overdeepened basin (Palmer Deep) on the inner continental shelf of the Antarctic Peninsula. These and similar sites from around the Antarctic margin are a valuable resource when linked with ice cores and equivalent sections at lower latitude sites for studies of decadal and millenial-scale climate variation.

Using palaeoclimate data to improve models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, Steven; King, Matt; Roberts, Jason; White, Duanne

2017-04-01

Ice sheet models are the most descriptive tools available to simulate the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), including its contribution towards changes in global sea level. However, our knowledge of the dynamics of the coupled ice-ocean-lithosphere system is inevitably limited, in part due to a lack of observations. Furthemore, to build computationally efficient models that can be run for multiple millennia, it is necessary to use simplified descriptions of ice dynamics. Ice sheet modelling is therefore an inherently uncertain exercise. The past evolution of the AIS provides an opportunity to constrain the description of physical processes within ice sheet models and, therefore, to constrain our understanding of the role of the AIS in driving changes in global sea level. We use the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to demonstrate how palaeoclimate data can improve our ability to predict the future evolution of the AIS. A 50-member perturbed-physics ensemble is generated, spanning uncertainty in the parameterisations of three key physical processes within the model: (i) the stress balance within the ice sheet, (ii) basal sliding and (iii) calving of ice shelves. A Latin hypercube approach is used to optimally sample the range of uncertainty in parameter values. This perturbed-physics ensemble is used to simulate the evolution of the AIS from the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21,000 years ago) to present. Palaeoclimate records are then used to determine which ensemble members are the most realistic. This allows us to use data on past climates to directly constrain our understanding of the past contribution of the AIS towards changes in global sea level. Critically, it also allows us to determine which ensemble members are likely to generate the most realistic projections of the future evolution of the AIS.

Lava heating and loading of ice sheets on early Mars: Predictions for meltwater generation, groundwater recharge, and resulting landforms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassanelli, James P.; Head, James W.

2016-06-01

Recent modeling studies of the early Mars climate predict a predominantly cold climate, characterized by the formation of regional ice sheets across the highland areas of Mars. Formation of the predicted "icy highlands" ice sheets is coincident with a peak in the volcanic flux of Mars involving the emplacement of the Late Noachian - Early Hesperian ridged plains unit. We explore the relationship between the predicted early Mars "icy highlands" ice sheets, and the extensive early flood volcanism to gain insight into the surface conditions prevalent during the Late Noachian to Early Hesperian transition period. Using Hesperia Planum as a type area, we develop an ice sheet lava heating and loading model. We quantitatively assess the thermal and melting processes involved in the lava heating and loading process following the chronological sequence of lava emplacement. We test a broad range of parameters to thoroughly constrain the lava heating and loading process and outline predictions for the formation of resulting geological features. We apply the theoretical model to a study area within the Hesperia Planum region and assess the observed geology against predictions derived from the ice sheet lava heating and loading model. Due to the highly cratered nature of the Noachian highlands terrain onto which the volcanic plains were emplaced, we predict highly asymmetrical lava loading conditions. Crater interiors are predicted to accumulate greater thicknesses of lava over more rapid timescales, while in the intercrater plains, lava accumulation occurs over longer timescales and does not reach great thicknesses. We find that top-down melting due to conductive heat transfer from supraglacial lava flows is generally limited when the emplaced lava flows are less than ∼10 m thick, but is very significant at lava flow thicknesses of ∼100 m or greater. We find that bottom-up cryosphere and ice sheet melting is most likely to occur within crater interiors where lavas accumulate to a sufficient thickness to raise the ice-melting isotherm to the base of the superposed lavas. In these locations, if lava accumulation occurs rapidly, bottom-up melting of the ice sheet can continue, or begin, after lava accumulation has completed in a process we term "deferred melting". Subsurface mass loss through melting of the buried ice sheets is predicted to cause substantial subsidence in the superposed lavas, leading to the formation of associated collapse features including fracture systems, depressions, surface faulting and folding, wrinkle-ridge formation, and chaos terrain. In addition, if meltwater generated from the lava heating and loading process becomes trapped at the lava flow margins due to the presence of impermeable confining units, large highly pressurized episodic flooding events could occur. Examination of the study area reveals geological features which are generally consistent with those predicted to form as a result of the ice sheet lava heating and loading process, suggesting the presence of surface snow and ice during the Late Noachian to Early Hesperian period.

Assessment of climate variability of the Greenland Ice Sheet: Integration of in situ and satellite data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steffen, K.; Abdalati, W.; Stroeve, J.; Key, J.

1994-01-01

The proposed research involves the application of multispectral satellite data in combination with ground truth measurements to monitor surface properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet which are essential for describing the energy and mass of the ice sheet. Several key components of the energy balance are parameterized using satellite data and in situ measurements. The analysis will be done for a ten year time period in order to get statistics on the seasonal and interannual variations of the surface processes and the climatology. Our goal is to investigate to what accuracy and over what geographic areas large scale snow properties and radiative fluxes can be derived based upon a combination of available remote sensing and meteorological data sets. Operational satellite sensors are calibrated based on ground measurements and atmospheric modeling prior to large scale analysis to ensure the quality of the satellite data. Further, several satellite sensors of different spatial and spectral resolution are intercompared to access the parameter accuracy. Proposed parameterization schemes to derive key component of the energy balance from satellite data are validated. For the understanding of the surface processes a field program was designed to collect information on spectral albedo, specular reflectance, soot content, grain size and the physical properties of different snow types. Further, the radiative and turbulent fluxes at the ice/snow surface are monitored for the parameterization and interpretation of the satellite data. The expected results include several baseline data sets of albedo, surface temperature, radiative fluxes, and different snow types of the entire Greenland Ice Sheet. These climatological data sets will be of potential use for climate sensitivity studies in the context of future climate change.

Efficient meltwater drainage through supraglacial streams and rivers on the southwest Greenland ice sheet.

PubMed

Smith, Laurence C; Chu, Vena W; Yang, Kang; Gleason, Colin J; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Rennermalm, Asa K; Legleiter, Carl J; Behar, Alberto E; Overstreet, Brandon T; Moustafa, Samiah E; Tedesco, Marco; Forster, Richard R; LeWinter, Adam L; Finnegan, David C; Sheng, Yongwei; Balog, James

2015-01-27

Thermally incised meltwater channels that flow each summer across melt-prone surfaces of the Greenland ice sheet have received little direct study. We use high-resolution WorldView-1/2 satellite mapping and in situ measurements to characterize supraglacial water storage, drainage pattern, and discharge across 6,812 km(2) of southwest Greenland in July 2012, after a record melt event. Efficient surface drainage was routed through 523 high-order stream/river channel networks, all of which terminated in moulins before reaching the ice edge. Low surface water storage (3.6 ± 0.9 cm), negligible impoundment by supraglacial lakes or topographic depressions, and high discharge to moulins (2.54-2.81 cm⋅d(-1)) indicate that the surface drainage system conveyed its own storage volume every <2 d to the bed. Moulin discharges mapped inside ∼52% of the source ice watershed for Isortoq, a major proglacial river, totaled ∼41-98% of observed proglacial discharge, highlighting the importance of supraglacial river drainage to true outflow from the ice edge. However, Isortoq discharges tended lower than runoff simulations from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model (0.056-0.112 km(3)⋅d(-1) vs. ∼0.103 km(3)⋅d(-1)), and when integrated over the melt season, totaled just 37-75% of MAR, suggesting nontrivial subglacial water storage even in this melt-prone region of the ice sheet. We conclude that (i) the interior surface of the ice sheet can be efficiently drained under optimal conditions, (ii) that digital elevation models alone cannot fully describe supraglacial drainage and its connection to subglacial systems, and (iii) that predicting outflow from climate models alone, without recognition of subglacial processes, may overestimate true meltwater export from the ice sheet to the ocean.

Efficient meltwater drainage through supraglacial streams and rivers on the southwest Greenland ice sheet

PubMed Central

Smith, Laurence C.; Chu, Vena W.; Yang, Kang; Gleason, Colin J.; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Rennermalm, Asa K.; Legleiter, Carl J.; Behar, Alberto E.; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Moustafa, Samiah E.; Tedesco, Marco; Forster, Richard R.; LeWinter, Adam L.; Finnegan, David C.; Sheng, Yongwei; Balog, James

2015-01-01

Thermally incised meltwater channels that flow each summer across melt-prone surfaces of the Greenland ice sheet have received little direct study. We use high-resolution WorldView-1/2 satellite mapping and in situ measurements to characterize supraglacial water storage, drainage pattern, and discharge across 6,812 km2 of southwest Greenland in July 2012, after a record melt event. Efficient surface drainage was routed through 523 high-order stream/river channel networks, all of which terminated in moulins before reaching the ice edge. Low surface water storage (3.6 ± 0.9 cm), negligible impoundment by supraglacial lakes or topographic depressions, and high discharge to moulins (2.54–2.81 cm⋅d−1) indicate that the surface drainage system conveyed its own storage volume every <2 d to the bed. Moulin discharges mapped inside ∼52% of the source ice watershed for Isortoq, a major proglacial river, totaled ∼41–98% of observed proglacial discharge, highlighting the importance of supraglacial river drainage to true outflow from the ice edge. However, Isortoq discharges tended lower than runoff simulations from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model (0.056–0.112 km3⋅d−1 vs. ∼0.103 km3⋅d−1), and when integrated over the melt season, totaled just 37–75% of MAR, suggesting nontrivial subglacial water storage even in this melt-prone region of the ice sheet. We conclude that (i) the interior surface of the ice sheet can be efficiently drained under optimal conditions, (ii) that digital elevation models alone cannot fully describe supraglacial drainage and its connection to subglacial systems, and (iii) that predicting outflow from climate models alone, without recognition of subglacial processes, may overestimate true meltwater export from the ice sheet to the ocean. PMID:25583477

An Antarctic stratigraphic record of step-wise ice-sheet growth through the Eocene-Oligocene transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passchier, S.; Ciarletta, D. J.; Miriagos, T.; Bijl, P.; Bohaty, S. M.

2016-12-01

The Antarctic cryosphere plays a critical role in the ocean-atmosphere system, but its early evolution is still poorly known. With a near-field record from Prydz Bay, Antarctica, we conclude that Antarctic continental ice-sheet growth commenced with the EOT-1 "precursor" glaciation, during a time of Subantarctic surface ocean cooling and a decline in atmospheric pCO2. Prydz Bay lies downstream of a major East Antarctic ice-sheet drainage system and the Gamburtsev Mountains, a likely nucleation point for the first ice sheets. Its sedimentary records uniquely constrain the timing of ice-sheet advance onto the continental shelf. We investigate a detrital record extracted from three Ocean Drilling Program drill holes in Prydz Bay within a new depositional and chronological framework spanning the late Eocene to early Oligocene ( 36-33 Ma). The chemical index of alteration (CIA) and the S-index, calculated from the major element geochemistry of bulk samples, yield estimates of chemical weathering intensities and mean annual temperature (MAT) on the East Antarctic continent. We document evidence for late Eocene mountain glaciation along with transient warm events at 35.8-34.8 Ma. These data and our sedimentological analyses confirm the presence of ephemeral mountain glaciers on East Antarctica during the late Eocene between 35.9 and 34.4 Ma. Furthermore, we document the stepwise climate cooling of the Antarctic hinterland from 34.4 Ma as the ice sheet advanced towards the edges of the continent during EOT-1. The youngest part of our data set correlates to the time interval of the Oi-1 glaciation, when the ice-sheet in Prydz Bay extended to the outer shelf. Cooling and ice growth on Antarctica was spatially variable and ice sheets formed under declining pCO2. These results point to complex ice sheet - atmosphere - ocean - solid-earth feedbacks.

A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Koenig, Lora S.

2011-01-01

We have developed a climate-quality data record of the clear-sky surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm. A climate-data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change. We present daily and monthly Terra MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid within +/-3 hours of 17:00Z or 2:00 PM Local Solar Time. Preliminary validation of the ISTs at Summit Camp, Greenland, during the 2008-09 winter, shows that there is a cold bias using the MODIS IST which underestimates the measured surface temperature by approximately 3 C when temperatures range from approximately -50 C to approximately -35 C. The ultimate goal is to develop a CDR that starts in 1981 with the Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset and continues with MODIS data from 2000 to the present. Differences in the APP and MODIS cloud masks have so far precluded the current IST records from spanning both the APP and MODIS IST time series in a seamless manner though this will be revisited when the APP dataset has been reprocessed. The Greenland IST climate-quality data record is suitable for continuation using future Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data and will be elevated in status to a CDR when at least 9 more years of climate-quality data become available either from MODIS Terra or Aqua, or from the VIIRS. The complete MODIS IST data record will be available online in the summer of 2011.

Assessing modeled Greenland surface mass balance in the GISS Model E2 and its sensitivity to surface albedo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Patrick; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Koenig, Lora S.; Tedesco, Marco; Moustafa, Samiah E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro; Fischer, Robert P.; Fettweis, Xavier

2016-04-01

The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) plays an important role in global sea level change. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) such as the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) have been employed at high spatial resolution with relatively complex physics to simulate ice sheet SMB. Global climate models (GCMs) incorporate less sophisticated physical schemes and provide outputs at a lower spatial resolution, but have the advantage of modeling the interaction between different components of the earth's oceans, climate, and land surface at a global scale. Improving the ability of GCMs to represent ice sheet SMB is important for making predictions of future changes in global sea level. With the ultimate goal of improving SMB simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 GCM, we compare simulated GrIS SMB against the outputs of the MAR model and radar-derived estimates of snow accumulation. In order to reproduce present-day climate variability in the Model E2 simulation, winds are constrained to match the reanalysis datasets used to force MAR at the lateral boundaries. We conduct a preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of the simulated Model E2 SMB to surface albedo, a parameter that is known to strongly influence SMB. Model E2 albedo is set to a fixed value of 0.8 over the entire ice sheet in the initial configuration of the model (control case). We adjust this fixed value in an ensemble of simulations over a range of 0.4 to 0.8 (roughly the range of observed summer GrIS albedo values) to examine the sensitivity of ice-sheet-wide SMB to albedo. We prescribe albedo from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD43A3 v6 to examine the impact of a more realistic spatial and temporal variations in albedo. An age-dependent snow albedo parameterization is applied, and its impact on SMB relative to observations and the RCM is assessed.

Using a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model to investigate the contribution of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice sheet to the Last Interglacial Sea Level.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bradley, Sarah; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.

2014-05-01

Eustatic Sea Level during the Last interglacial (LIG) is likely to have been 4- 6 m higher than present day, with the observed relative sea level (RSL) at numerous far-field sites even higher [Dutton and Lambeck, 2012]. It has been suggested to generate this higher than present day sea level requires a retreat of both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland (GIS) Ice sheets beyond the present day extent, but the exact contribution of these two global ice sheets has yet to be resolved. By combing a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model with a suite of LIG ice-loading histories we will address a number of outstanding issues (i) What was the contribution of the AIS and GIS to ESL, (ii) Was the AIS or the GIS smaller during the LIG than the present interglacial? (iii) Can we generate the observed higher LIG RSL at a range of far-field sites? The suite of AIS and GIS ice-loading histories is constrained using the most recent near-field evidence, LIG stable isotope ice core data [Dahl-Jensen et al., 2013; Masson-Delmotte et al., 2011] and the output from ice sheet and climate models [Helsen et al., 2013; Pollard and DeConto, 2009; Stone et al., 2013]. Comparing the predicted RSL to a recent database of observed LIG far-field sea level [Dutton and Lambeck, 2012] allows for an assessment of the plausibility of the suite of ice loading histories. With this study, we aim to provide insight into the LIG history of the AIS and GIS. Dahl-Jensen, D., et al. (2013), Eemian interglacial reconstructed from a Greenland folded ice core, Nature, 493(7433), 489-494. Dutton, A., and K. Lambeck (2012), Ice Volume and Sea Level During the Last Interglacial, Science, 337(6091), 216-219. Helsen, M. M., W. J. van de Berg, R. S. W. van de Wal, M. R. van den Broeke, and J. Oerlemans (2013), Coupled regional climate-ice-sheet simulation shows limited Greenland ice loss during the Eemian, Clim Past, 9(4), 1773-1788. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al. (2011), A comparison of the present and last interglacial periods in six Antarctic ice cores, Clim Past, 7(2), 397-423. Pollard, D., and R. M. DeConto (2009), Modelling West Antarctic ice sheet growth and collapse through the past five million years, Nature, 458(7236), 329-U389. Stone, E. J., D. J. Lunt, J. D. Annan, and J. C. Hargreaves (2013), Quantification of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to Last Interglacial sea level rise, Clim Past, 9(2), 621-639.

Influence of glacial ice sheets on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through surface wind change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le

2018-04-01

Coupled modeling studies have recently shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). However, most models show a strong AMOC in their simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is biased compared to reconstructions that indicate both a weaker and stronger AMOC during the LGM. Therefore, a detailed investigation of the mechanism behind this intensification of the AMOC is important for a better understanding of the glacial climate and the LGM AMOC. Here, various numerical simulations are conducted to focus on the effect of wind changes due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC and the crucial region where the wind modifies the AMOC. First, from atmospheric general circulation model experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying wind stress anomalies regionally or at different magnitudes as a boundary condition. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes, which is induced by the North American ice sheet. This intensification of the AMOC is caused by the increased oceanic horizontal and vertical transport of salt, while the change in sea ice transport has an opposite, though minor, effect. Experiments further show that the Eurasian ice sheet intensifies the AMOC by directly affecting the deep-water formation in the Norwegian Sea.

Correspondence between North Pacific Ocean ventilation, Cordilleran Ice Sheet variations, and North Atlantic Heinrich Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walczak, M. H.; Mix, A.; Fallon, S.; Praetorius, S. K.; Cowan, E. A.; Du, J.; Hobern, T.; Padman, J.; Fifield, L. K.; Stoner, J. S.; Haley, B. A.

2017-12-01

Much remains unresolved concerning the origin and global implications of the episodes of rapid glacial failure in the North Atlantic known as Heinrich Events. Thought to occur during or at the termination of the coldest of the abrupt stadial climate events known as Dansgaard-Oschger cycles, various trigger mechanisms have been theorized, including external forcing in the form of oceanic or atmospheric warming, internal dynamics of the large Laurentide ice sheet, or the episodic failure of another (presumably European) ice sheet. Heinrich events may also be associated with a decrease in North Atlantic deep-water formation. New results from Gulf of Alaska IODP Expedition 341 reveal events of Cordilleran Ice Sheet retreat (based on ice-rafted detritus and sedimentation rates) synchronous with reorganization of ocean circulation (based on benthic-planktic 14C pairs) spanning the past 45,000 years on an independent high-resolution radiocarbon-based chronology. We document the relationship between these Pacific records and the North Atlantic Heinrich events, and find the data show an early Pacific expression of ice sheet instability in the form of pulses of Cordilleran glacial discharge. The benthic radiocarbon anomalies in the Northeast Pacific contemporaneous with Cordilleran discharge events indicate a close coupling of ice-ocean dynamics throughout Marine Isotope Stage 2. These data are hard to reconcile with triggering in the North Atlantic or internal to the Laurentide ice sheet, requiring us to re-think both the mechanisms that generate Heinrich events and their far-field impacts.

PAST Gateways (Palaeo-Arctic Spatial and Temporal Gateways): Introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ó Cofaigh, Colm; Briner, Jason P.; Kirchner, Nina; Lucchi, Renata G.; Meyer, Hanno; Kaufman, Darrell S.

2016-09-01

This special issue relates to the Second International Conference of the PAST Gateways (Palaeo-Arctic Spatial and Temporal Gateways) network which was held in Trieste, Italy in 2014. Twenty five papers are included and they address topics under four main themes: (1) The growth and decay of Arctic ice sheets; (2) Arctic sea ice and palaeoceanography; (3) Terrestrial Arctic environments and permafrost change; and (4) Holocene Arctic environmental change. Geographically the focus is circum-Arctic; the special issue includes detailed regional studies from Greenland, Scandinavia, Russia, and Arctic North America and the adjoining seas, as well as a series of synthesis-type, review papers on Fennoscandian Ice Sheet deglaciation and Holocene Arctic palaeo-climate change. The methodologies employed are diverse and include marine sediment core and geophysical investigations, terrestrial glacial geology and geomorphology, isotopic analysis of ground ice, palaeo-ecological analysis of lacustrine and terrestrial sedimentary archives, geochronology and numerical ice sheet modeling.

ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lubin, Daniel; Bromwich, David H; Vogelmann, Andrew M

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) is the most technologically advanced atmospheric and climate science campaign yet fielded in Antarctica. AWARE was motivated be recent concern about the impact of cryospheric mass loss on global sea level rise. Specifically, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is now the second largest contributor to rising sea level, after the Greenland Ice Sheet. As steadily warming ocean water erodes the grounding lines of WAIS components where they meet the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, the retreating grounding lines moving inland and downslope on the underlyingmore » terrain imply mechanical instability of the entire WAIS. There is evidence that this point of instability may have already been reached, perhaps signifying more rapid loss of WAIS ice mass. At the same time, the mechanical support provided by adjacent ice shelves, and also the fundamental stability of exposed ice cliffs at the ice sheet grounding lines, will be adversely impacted by a warming atmosphere that causes more frequent episodes of surface melting. The surface meltwater damages the ice shelves and ice cliffs through hydrofracturing. With the increasing concern regarding these rapid cryospheric changes, AWARE was motivated by the need to (a) diagnose the surface energy balance in West Antarctica as related to both summer season climatology and potential surface melting, and (b) improve global climate model (GCM) performance over Antarctica, such that future cryospheric projections can be more reliable.« less

Retreat of the Southwest Labrador Sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet During the Last Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowell, T. V.; Kelly, M. A.; Fisher, T. G.; Barnett, P. J.; Howley, J. A.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2016-12-01

Large ice sheets are suspected to have played a major role in forcing the transitions from glacial to interglacial conditions, known as terminations. To improve the understanding of the role of the Laurentide Ice Sheet in the last termination, we present a chronology of ice sheet recession from just subsequent to end of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene. We focus on the retreat of the southwest Labrador Sector of the ice sheet in northern Minnesota and adjacent Ontario. Multiple moraines in this region mark an overall pattern of ice recession interrupted by stillstands and/or minor readvances. Radiocarbon and 10Be ages from 50 sites along this 400 km-long transect indicate that the oldest moraine complex, the Vermillion moraine, formed at 17.0 ka. Subsequently, the ice margin retreated with minor standstills until the Dog Lake moraine was deposited between 12.7 and 12.3 ka. Recession from the Dog Lake moraine began by 12.3 ka the ice margin receded 150 km to the north-northeast by 10.7 ka. In general, the radiocarbon and 10Be ages define a pattern of near-continuous ice sheet retreat. Deposition of the Vermillion and Dog Lake moraines occurred at the beginning of Heinrich stadials 1 ( 17.5-14.5 ka) and 0 ( 12.9-11.7 ka), respectively, but ice recession occurred throughout the remainder of these stadials. This pattern is different from climate conditions registered by Greenland ice cores which show cold conditions from the end of the LGM until the Bølling warming at 14.5 ka, and throughout the Younger Dryas ( 12.9-11.7 ka). We suggest that the pattern of ice sheet recession is more similar to mountain glaciers in the southern mid-latitudes and tropics, and that Heinrich stadials may have been characterized by warming at least in the summertime that influenced near global ice recession.

Englacial layer mapping correlation and consistency techniques: an example from airborne ice penetrating radar profiles in West Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudunagunta, V.; Ballal, S.; Albach, R.; Muldoon, G.; Quartini, E.; Cavitte, M. G.; Young, D. A.; Blankenship, D. D.

2016-12-01

Ice sheets are important considerations in projections of sea level rise and studies of climate history. Satellite imagery, ice-penetrating radar, and ground penetrating radar are commonly used to understand the dynamics and health of ice sheets. We focus on how to accurately interpret ice-penetrating radar data by tracing isochrones dated by comparison to deep ice cores so that an extensive knowledge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet's internal stratigraphy is obtained. The radar data shows englacial reflectors and isochrones are interpreted englacial reflectors. We analyze these features and attempt to understand their possible origins. Accurate interpretation of radar data is crucial because the data will be used to evaluate ice flow evolution and boundary conditions. It can also be used to validate simulated ice sheet models. However to do so, isochrones must be traced and connected correctly. Our approach accomplishes this and has the potential to be applied to other ice sheets on Earth and in extraterrestrial systems. We discuss the methodology utilized by our team to interpret data from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collected using airborne ice-penetrating radar. The seismic reflection interpretation environment Landmark DecisionSpace was adapted to display and interpret the radar returns. When tracing isochrones, a group approach is used to maximize accuracy. In gridded surveys, loops are used to continuously check isochrones, in addition to retracing of isochrones by different group members to check for errors in interpretation. As loops are made, areas of possible scientific merit, such as isochrone drawdowns or Raymond bumps, are documented. A key aspect of this approach is the ability to work in a shared environment with a collaborative database like DecisionSpace. We will explore how we identified these features, their root causes, and subsequent implications for understanding ice sheet dynamics.

The extent and timing of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet offshore of west Ireland-preliminary findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Jared; Benetti, Sara; Dunlop, Paul; Cofaigh, Colm Ó.

2014-05-01

Recently interpreted marine geophysical data from the western Irish shelf has provided the first direct evidence that the last British-Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) extended westwards onto the Irish continental shelf as a grounded ice mass composed of several lobes with marine-terminating margins. Marine terminating ice margins are known to be sensitive to external forcing mechanisms and currently there is concern regarding the future stability of marine based ice sheets, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, in a warming world. Given its position, the glaciated western Irish continental shelf is a prime location to investigate the processes of how marine-based ice sheets responded to past climatic and oceanic events, which may in turn help us better predict the future trajectory of the marine sectors of modern Ice Sheets. However, despite the potential importance of the former Irish ice margin to our understanding of ice sheet behaviour, the timing and nature of its advance and retreat is currently poorly understood. This study aims to describe the depositional history of the last BIIS on the continental shelf west of Ireland and age-constrain the rate of retreat of two ice lobes that extended from Galway Bay and Clew Bay. This is being accomplished through a multifaceted analysis of at least 29 sediment cores gathered across the continental shelf offshore of counties Galway and Mayo, Ireland. This poster shows results from initial sedimentological descriptions of cores from the mid to outer shelf, which support previous geomorphic interpretations of BIIS history. Preliminary palaeoenvironmental results from ongoing micropaleontological analyses are also discussed and provide new data that verifies sedimentary interpretations on ice proximity. Finally, results from several radiocarbon dates are discussed, which limit these deposits to the last glacial maximum and constrain the timings of ice advance and retreat on the continental shelf west of Ireland.

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

2017-11-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

Periodical climate variations and their impact on Earth rotation for the last 800Kyr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapanov, Yavor; Gambis, Daniel

2010-05-01

The Earth rotation variations are highly affected by climatic variations associated with the glacial cycles in the late Pleistocene. The processes of glaciation, followed by ice melting, are connected with significant changes of the mean sea level. These processes redistribute great amount of water masses between oceans and ice sheets, which lead to changes of the axial moment of inertia and corresponding variations of the Universal Time UT1 and Length of Day LOD, according to the law of angular momentum conservation. The climatic variations for the last 800Kyr are analyzed by means of time series of temperature changes, determined by deuterium data from Antarctica ice core. Reconstructed glacial sea level variations for the last 380Kyr, determined by the sediments from the Red sea, are used, too. Common periodicities of the temperature and mean sea level variations are determined. Time series of the long-periodical UT1 and LOD oscillations for the last 380Kyr and 800Kyr are reconstructed by means of empirical hydrological model of global water redistribution between the ocean and ice sheets during the last glacial events.

The Evolution of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, J. D.

2001-05-01

For much of the last 50 million years, high-latitude regions remained too warm to allow snow to accumulate and form ice sheets. Shackleton et al. (1984) published a landmark paper correlating the first occurrence of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) observed at Rockall Plateau with a prominent increase in benthic foraminiferal d18O values during the late Pliocene. These late Pliocene to Pleistocene ice sheets were modulated on an orbital frequency and have characterized the global climate over the past 2.6 myr (Shackleton and Opdyke, 1973; Shackleton et al., 1984; Ruddiman, et al., 1986). During the early Pliocene, northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) variations were less significant (Jansen et al., 1993). Our understanding of the Plio-Pleistocene ice sheet cycles can be viewed from two different perspectives. When viewed from the late Pleistocene, the fundamental question is what changed near the early/late Pliocene boundary to produce the large-scale, glacial-interglacial cycles of the past 2.6 Ma. In contrast, the view from the middle to late Miocene is quite different. Since the pioneering work of Shackleton et al. (1984), the record of NHG has been extended further back in time with drilling in the Norwegian Sea (ODP Leg 104). At Sites 642 and 644, IRD was found throughout the late Miocene and back to ~12 Ma. More recent drilling in the high northern latitudes occurred on ODP Leg 151. Site 909 recovered a middle Miocene section from the Fram Straits with rounded quartz grains that were interpreted as IRD (Wolf-Welling et al., 1996). Age estimates for those sediments place the first northern hemisphere ice sheets at least as old as 14 Ma. The occurrence of sand-sized particles (>1000 μm) and coal below this level indicates the possibility of glacial activity in the Northern Hemisphere as early as 16 Ma. Thus, the late Pliocene to Pleistocene cycles appear to be the resumption of the glacial-interglacial pattern that began during the Miocene. While the Miocene ice sheets were much smaller than their late Pliocene and Pleistocene counterparts, their presence casts the climate dynamics of the Neogene in a new light. Thus, understanding the middle to late Miocene climatic changes is key to understanding the Plio-Pleistocene climates.

Validation of a Climate-Data Record of the "Clear-Kky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Box, Jason E.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.

2011-01-01

Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented since 1981. We extended and refined this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. We developed a daily and monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using an ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm developed for use with MODIS data. Validation of this CDR is ongoing. MODIS Terra swath data are projected onto a polar stereographic grid at 6.25-km resolution to develop binary, gridded daily and mean-monthly 1ST maps. Each monthly map also has a color-coded image map that is available to download. Also included with the monthly maps is an accompanying map showing number of days in the month that were used to calculate the mean-monthly 1ST. This is important because no 1ST decision is made by the algorithm for cells that are considered cloudy by the internal cloud mask, so a sufficient number of days must be available to produce a mean 1ST for each grid cell. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 2) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 3) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+). Previous work shows that Terra MODIS ISTs are about 3 C lower than in-situ temperatures measured at Summit Camp, during the winter of 2008-09 under clear skies. In this work we begin to compare surface temperatures derived from AWS data with ISTs from the MODIS CDR. The Greenland Ice Sheet 1ST CDR will be useful for monitoring surface-temperature trends and can be used as input or for validation of climate models. The CDR can be extended into the future using MODIS Terra, Aqua and NPOESS Preparatory Project Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VII RS) data.

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

PubMed Central

Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-01-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth’s orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ∼40,000 (∼40 ky) to ∼100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ∼43 to ∼75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets. PMID:29180424

Causes of ice age intensification across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chalk, Thomas B.; Hain, Mathis P.; Foster, Gavin L.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sexton, Philip F.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Cherry, Soraya G.; Hasenfratz, Adam P.; Haug, Gerald H.; Jaccard, Samuel L.; Martínez-García, Alfredo; Pälike, Heiko; Pancost, Richard D.; Wilson, Paul A.

2017-12-01

During the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT; 1,200–800 kya), Earth's orbitally paced ice age cycles intensified, lengthened from ˜40,000 (˜40 ky) to ˜100 ky, and became distinctly asymmetrical. Testing hypotheses that implicate changing atmospheric CO2 levels as a driver of the MPT has proven difficult with available observations. Here, we use orbitally resolved, boron isotope CO2 data to show that the glacial to interglacial CO2 difference increased from ˜43 to ˜75 μatm across the MPT, mainly because of lower glacial CO2 levels. Through carbon cycle modeling, we attribute this decline primarily to the initiation of substantive dust-borne iron fertilization of the Southern Ocean during peak glacial stages. We also observe a twofold steepening of the relationship between sea level and CO2-related climate forcing that is suggestive of a change in the dynamics that govern ice sheet stability, such as that expected from the removal of subglacial regolith or interhemispheric ice sheet phase-locking. We argue that neither ice sheet dynamics nor CO2 change in isolation can explain the MPT. Instead, we infer that the MPT was initiated by a change in ice sheet dynamics and that longer and deeper post-MPT ice ages were sustained by carbon cycle feedbacks related to dust fertilization of the Southern Ocean as a consequence of larger ice sheets.

Surface mass balance of Greenland mountain glaciers and ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, R. J.; Box, J. E.; Bromwich, D. H.; Wahr, J. M.

2009-12-01

Mountain glaciers and ice caps contribute roughly half of eustatic sea-level rise. Greenland has thousands of small mountain glaciers and several ice caps > 1000 sq. km that have not been included in previous mass balance calculations. To include small glaciers and ice caps in our study, we use Polar WRF, a next-generation regional climate data assimilation model is run at grid resolution less than 10 km. WRF provides surface mass balance data at sufficiently high resolution to resolve not only the narrow ice sheet ablation zone, but provides information useful in downscaling melt and accumulation rates on mountain glaciers and ice caps. In this study, we refine Polar WRF to simulate a realistic surface energy budget. Surface melting is calculated in-line from surface energy budget closure. Blowing snow sublimation is computed in-line. Melt water re-freeze is calculated using a revised scheme. Our results are compared with NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and associated error is calculated on a regional and local scale with validation from automated weather stations (AWS), snow pits and ice core data from various regions along the Greenland ice sheet.

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koutnik, Michelle R.; Fudge, T.J.; Conway, Howard; Waddington, Edwin D.; Neumann, Thomas A.; Cuffey, Kurt M.; Buizert, Christo; Taylor, Kendrick C.

2016-01-01

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

Impact of 1.5°C global warming on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritz, Catherine; Pattyn, Frank

2017-04-01

For strengthening the global response to climate change, it is crucial to assess to what extent limiting global warming to low values may reduce the impacts on society. To tackle this issue, the IPCC has decided to provide a special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Ice sheets are well known contributors to sea level rise and many studies have aimed to provide projections of their future contribution in response to climate change, although the focus was often on worst-case scenarios. Here we propose to review the present knowledge of how the ice sheets could be affected in the case of a limited warming of 1.5°C to 2.0°C. We will review the various processes and feedbacks known to induce ice sheets vulnerability. They are different for Greenland, where we know that the surface mass balance plays a crucial role, and Antarctica where the major risk is marine ice sheet instability. One point of interest is to define, in terms of local forcing, the tipping points associated with these processes. We note that limiting global warming to 1.5°C may mean substantially more warming in the polar regions. This polar amplification can be assessed from experiments following the RCP2.6 scenario that have been carried out in recent (post IPCC AR5) studies. This scenario can be considered as an upper limit for 1.5°C. The final question concerns the long term (millennial) impact. There is a general consensus that there are tipping points both for Greenland and Antarctica, which potentially lead to irreversible mass loss. We will review the current knowledge of how long it takes to reach these tipping points and whether subsequent ice-sheet demise is, indeed, unstoppable.

Climate, pCO2 and terrestrial carbon cycle linkages during late Palaeozoic glacial-interglacial cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montañez, Isabel P.; McElwain, Jennifer C.; Poulsen, Christopher J.; White, Joseph D.; Dimichele, William A.; Wilson, Jonathan P.; Griggs, Galen; Hren, Michael T.

2016-11-01

Earth's last icehouse, 300 million years ago, is considered the longest-lived and most acute of the past half-billion years, characterized by expansive continental ice sheets and possibly tropical low-elevation glaciation. This atypical climate has long been attributed to anomalous radiative forcing promoted by a 3% lower incident solar luminosity and sustained low atmospheric pCO2 (<=300 ppm). Climate models, however, indicate a CO2 sensitivity of ice-sheet distribution and sea-level response that questions this long-standing climate paradigm by revealing major discrepancy between hypothesized ice distribution, pCO2, and geologic records of glacioeustasy. Here we present a high-resolution record of atmospheric pCO2 for 16 million years of the late Palaeozoic, developed using soil carbonate-based and fossil leaf-based proxies, that resolves the climate conundrum. Palaeo-fluctuations on the 105-yr scale occur within the CO2 range predicted for anthropogenic change and co-vary with substantial change in sea level and ice volume. We further document coincidence between pCO2 changes and repeated restructuring of Euramerican tropical forests that, in conjunction with modelled vegetation shifts, indicate a more dynamic carbon sequestration history than previously considered and a major role for terrestrial vegetation-CO2 feedbacks in driving eccentricity-scale climate cycles of the late Palaeozoic icehouse.

The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, A.; Ivins, E. R.

2015-12-01

Fluctuations in the mass of ice stored in Antarctica and Greenland are of considerable societal importance. The Ice Sheet Mass Balance Inter-Comparison Exercise (IMBIE) is a joint-initiative of ESA and NASA aimed at producing a single estimate of the global sea level contribution to polar ice sheet losses. Within IMBIE, estimates of ice sheet mass balance are developed from a variety of satellite geodetic techniques using a common spatial and temporal reference frame and a common appreciation of the contributions due to external signals. The project brings together the laboratories and space agencies that have been instrumental in developing independent estimates of ice sheet mass balance to date. In its first phase, IMBIE involved 27 science teams, and delivered a first community assessment of ice sheet mass imbalance to replace 40 individual estimates. The project established that (i) there is good agreement between the three main satellite-based techniques for estimating ice sheet mass balance, (ii) combining satellite data sets leads to significant improvement in certainty, (iii) the polar ice sheets contributed 11 ± 4 mm to global sea levels between 1992 and 2012, and (iv) that combined ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland have increased over time, rising from 10% of the global trend in the early 1990's to 30% in the late 2000's. Demand for an updated assessment has grown, and there are now new satellite missions, new geophysical corrections, new techniques, and new teams producing data. The period of overlap between independent satellite techniques has increased from 5 to 12 years, and the full period of satellite data over which an assessment can be performed has increased from 19 to 40 years. It is also clear that multiple satellite techniques are required to confidently separate mass changes associated with snowfall and ice dynamical imbalance - information that is of critical importance for climate modelling. This presentation outlines the approach for the second phase of IMBIE, including the project organisation, the work programme and schedule, the main science goals, and its current status, and reviews the recent and historical contributions that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have made to global sea level rise.

Luminescence dating of paleolake deltas and glacial deposits in Garwood Valley, Antarctica: Implications for climate, Ross ice sheet dynamics, and paleolake duration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levy, Joseph S.; Rittenour, Tammy M.; Fountain, Andrew G.; O'Connor, Jim E.

2017-01-01

The formation of perched deltas and other lacustrine deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is widely considered to be evidence of valley-filling lakes dammed by the grounded Ross Sea ice sheet during the local Last Glacial Maximum, with lake drainage interpreted as a record of grounding line retreat. We used luminescence dating to determine the age of paleolake deltas and glacial tills in Garwood Valley, a coastal dry valley that opens to the Ross Sea. Luminescence ages are stratigraphically consistent with radiocarbon results from algal mats within the same delta deposits but suggest radiocarbon dates from lacustrine carbonates may overestimate deposit ages by thousands of years. Results suggest that late Holocene delta deposition into paleolake Howard in Garwood Valley persisted until ca. 3.5 ka. This is significantly younger than the date when grounded ice is thought to have retreated from the Ross Sea. Our evidence suggests that the local, stranded ice-cored till topography in Garwood Valley, rather than regional ice-sheet dynamics, may have controlled lake levels for some McMurdo Dry Valleys paleolakes. Age control from the supraglacial Ross Sea drift suggests grounding and up-valley advance of the Ross Sea ice sheet into Garwood valley during marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 4 (71–78 ka) and the local Last Glacial Maximum (9–10 ka). This work demonstrates the power of combining luminescence dating with existing radiocarbon data sets to improve understanding of the relationships among paleolake formation, glacial position, and stream discharge in response to climate change.

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability

PubMed Central

Ramstein, Gilles; Charbit, Sylvie; Vrac, Mathieu; Famien, Adjoua Moïse; Sultan, Benjamin; Swingedouw, Didier; Dumas, Christophe; Gemenne, François; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-01-01

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. PMID:28584113

Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability.

PubMed

Defrance, Dimitri; Ramstein, Gilles; Charbit, Sylvie; Vrac, Mathieu; Famien, Adjoua Moïse; Sultan, Benjamin; Swingedouw, Didier; Dumas, Christophe; Gemenne, François; Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul

2017-06-20

The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial/deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agroecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.

Surface mass balance model evaluation from satellite and airborne lidar mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutterley, T. C.; Velicogna, I.; Fettweis, X.; van den Broeke, M. R.

2016-12-01

We present estimates of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface elevation change from a novel combination of satellite and airborne laser altimetry measurements. Our method combines measurements from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS) and ICESat-1 to generate elevation change rates at high spatial resolution. This method allows to extend the records of each instrument, increases the overall spatial coverage compared to a single instrument, and produces high-quality, coherent maps of surface elevation change. In addition by combining the lidar datasets, we are able to investigate seasonal and interannual surface elevation change for years where Spring and Fall Operation IceBridge campaigns are available. We validate our method by comparing with the standard NSIDC elevation change product calculated using overlapping Level-1B ATM data. We use the altimetry-derived mass changes to evaluate the uncertainty in surface mass balance, particularly in the runoff component, from two Regional Climate Models (RCM's), the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) and the Modéle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), and one Global Climate Model (GCM), MERRA2/GEOS-5. We investigate locations with low ice sheet surface velocities that are within the estimated ablation zones of each regional climate model. We find that the surface mass balance outputs from RACMO and MAR show good correspondence with mass changes derived from surface elevation changes over long periods. At two sites in Northeast Greenland (NEGIS), the MAR model has better correspondence with the altimetry estimate. We find that the differences at these locations are primarily due to the characterization of meltwater refreeze within the ice sheet.

The Global and Local Climatic Response to the Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huybers, K. M.; Singh, H.; Steiger, N. J.; Frierson, D. M.; Steig, E. J.; Bitz, C. M.

2014-12-01

Glaciologists have suggested that a relatively small external forcing may compromise the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Further, there is compelling physical evidence that the WAIS has collapsed in the past, at times when the mean global temperature was only a few degrees warmer than it is today. In addition to a rapid increase in global sea level, the collapse of the WAIS could also affect the global circulation of the atmosphere. Ice sheets are some of the largest topographic features on Earth, causing large regional anomalies in albedo and radiative balance. Our work uses idealized aquaplanet models in tandem with a fully coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model (CCSM4) to compare the atmospheric, radiative, and oceanic response to a complete loss of the WAIS. Initial findings indicate that the loss of the WAIS leads to a weakening and equator-ward shift of the zonal winds, a development of strong zonal asymmetries in the meridional wind, and a northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We aim to characterize how the local and global climate is affected by the presence of the WAIS, and how changes in the distribution of Southern Hemisphere ice may be represented in the proxy record.

Meltwater pulse recorded in Last Interglacial mollusk shells from Bermuda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelstern, Ian Z.; Rowe, Mark P.; Lohmann, Kyger C.; Defliese, William F.; Petersen, Sierra V.; Brewer, Aaron W.

2017-02-01

The warm climate of Bermuda today is modulated by the nearby presence of the Gulf Stream current. However, iceberg scours in the Florida Strait and the presence of ice-rafted debris in Bermuda Rise sediments indicate that, during the last deglaciation, icebergs discharged from the Laurentide Ice Sheet traveled as far south as subtropical latitudes. We present evidence that an event of similar magnitude affected the subtropics during the Last Interglacial, potentially due to melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using the clumped isotope paleothermometer, we found temperatures 10°C colder and seawater δ18O values 2‰ lower than modern in Last Interglacial Cittarium pica shells from Grape Bay, Bermuda. In contrast, Last Interglacial shells from Rocky Bay, Bermuda, record temperatures only slightly colder and seawater δ18O values similar to modern, likely representing more typical Last Interglacial conditions in Bermuda outside of a meltwater event. The significantly colder ocean temperatures observed in Grape Bay samples illustrate the extreme sensitivity of Bermudian climate to broad-scale ocean circulation changes. They indicate routine meltwater transport in the North Atlantic to near-equatorial latitudes, which would likely have resulted in disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. These data demonstrate that future melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, a potential source of the Last Interglacial meltwater event, could have dramatic climate effects outside of the high latitudes.

Capturing total chronological and spatial uncertainties in palaeo-ice sheet reconstructions: the DATED example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

2017-04-01

Glacial geologists generate empirical reconstructions of former ice-sheet dynamics by combining evidence from the preserved record of glacial landforms (e.g. end moraines, lineations) and sediments with chronological evidence (mainly numerical dates derived predominantly from radiocarbon, exposure and luminescence techniques). However the geomorphological and sedimentological footprints and chronological data are both incomplete records in both space and time, and all have multiple types of uncertainty associated with them. To understand ice sheets' response to climate we need numerical models of ice-sheet dynamics based on physical principles. To test and/or constrain such models, empirical reconstructions of past ice sheets that capture and acknowledge all uncertainties are required. In 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to produce an empirical reconstruction of the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets, (including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets) that is fully documented, specified in time, and includes uncertainty estimates. Over 5000 dates relevant to constraining ice build-up and retreat were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions based on glacial geomorphology to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent. The DATED maps show synchronous ice margins with maximum-minimum uncertainty bounds for every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago. In the first version of results (DATED-1; Hughes et al. 2016) all uncertainties (both quantitative and qualitative, e.g. precision and accuracy of numerical dates, correlation of moraines, stratigraphic interpretations) were combined based on our best glaciological-geological assessment and expressed in terms of distance as a 'fuzzy' margin. Large uncertainties (>100 km) exist; predominantly across marine sectors and other locations where there are spatial gaps in the dating record (e.g. the timing of coalescence and separation of the Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara ice sheets) but also in well-studied areas due to conflicting yet apparently equally robust data. In the four years since the DATED-1 census (1 January 2013), the volume of new information (from both dates and mapped glacial geomorphology) has grown significantly ( 1000 new dates). Here, we present work towards the updated version of results, DATED-2, that attempts to further reduce and explicitly report all uncertainties inherent in ice sheet reconstructions. Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I. 2016: The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas, 45, 1-45. 10.1111/bor.12142

Radiative transfer model of snow for bare ice regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanikawa, T.; Aoki, T.; Niwano, M.; Hosaka, M.; Shimada, R.; Hori, M.; Yamaguchi, S.

2016-12-01

Modeling a radiative transfer (RT) for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems is of fundamental importance for remote sensing applications to monitor snow and bare ice regions in the Greenland ice sheet and for accurate climate change predictions by regional and global climate models. Recently, the RT model for atmosphere-snow system was implemented for our regional and global climate models. However, the bare ice region where recently it has been expanded on the Greenland ice sheet due to the global warming, has not been implemented for these models, implying that this region leads miscalculations in these climate models. Thus, the RT model of snow for bare ice regions is needed for accurate climate change predictions. We developed the RT model for coupled atmosphere-snow-bare ice systems, and conducted a sensitivity analysis of the RT model to know the effect of snow, bare ice and geometry parameters on the spectral radiant quantities. The RT model considers snow and bare-ice inherent optical properties (IOPs), including snow grain size, air bubble size and its concentration and bare ice thickness. The conventional light scattering theory, Mie theory, was used for IOP calculations. Monte Carlo method was used for the multiple scattering. The sensitivity analyses showed that spectral albedo for the bare ice increased with increasing the concentration of the air bubble in the bare ice for visible wavelengths because the air bubble is scatterer with no absorption. For near infrared wavelengths, spectral albedo has no dependence on the air bubble due to the strong light absorption by ice. When increasing solar zenith angle, the spectral albedo were increased for all wavelengths. This is the similar trend with spectral snow albedo. Cloud cover influenced the bare ice spectral albedo by covering direct radiation into diffuse radiation. The purely diffuse radiation has an effective solar zenith angle near 50°. Converting direct into diffuse radiation reduces the effective solar zenith angle, resulting in reducing the spectral albedo. This is also the similar trend with spectral snow albedo. Further work should focus on the validation of the RT model using in situ measurement data through field and laboratory experiments.

Greenland Ice Sheet in 3D Cutaway

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Peering into the thousands of frozen layers inside Greenland’s ice sheet is like looking back in time. Each layer provides a record of what Earth’s climate was like at the dawn of civilization, or during the last ice age, or during an ancient period of warmth similar to the one we experience today. Scientists using ice-penetrating radar data collected by NASA’s Operation IceBridge and earlier airborne campaigns have built the first-ever comprehensive map of layers deep inside the Greenland Ice Sheet. View the full video: youtu.be/u0VbPE0TOtQ Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Pink marine sediments reveal rapid ice melt and Arctic meltwater discharge during Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Tine L; Thomsen, Erik

2013-01-01

The climate of the last glaciation was interrupted by numerous abrupt temperature fluctuations, referred to as Greenland interstadials and stadials. During warm interstadials the meridional overturning circulation was active transferring heat to the north, whereas during cold stadials the Nordic Seas were ice-covered and the overturning circulation was disrupted. Meltwater discharge, from ice sheets surrounding the Nordic Seas, is implicated as a cause of this ocean instability, yet very little is known regarding this proposed discharge during warmings. Here we show that, during warmings, pink clay from Devonian Red Beds is transported in suspension by meltwater from the surrounding ice sheet and replaces the greenish silt that is normally deposited on the north-western slope of Svalbard during interstadials. The magnitude of the outpourings is comparable to the size of the outbursts during the deglaciation. Decreasing concentrations of ice-rafted debris during the interstadials signify that the ice sheet retreats as the meltwater production increases.

PolarPortal.org Communicates Real-Time Developments in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langen, P. L.; Andersen, S. B.; Andersen, K. K.; Andersen, M. L.; Ahlstrom, A. P.; van As, D.; Barletta, V. R.; Box, J. E.; Citterio, M.; Colgan, W. T.; Dybkjær, G.; Forsberg, R.; Høyer, J. L.; Jensen, M. B.; Kliem, N.; Mottram, R.; Nielsen, K. P.; Olesen, M.; Quaglia, F. C.; Rasmussen, T. A.; Rodehacke, C. B.; Stendel, M.; Sandberg Sørensen, L.; Tonboe, R. T.

2014-12-01

PolarPortal.org was launched in June 2013 by a consortium of Danish institutions, including the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) and the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU-Space). Polar Portal is a single web portal presenting a wide range of near real-time information on both the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea-ice in a format geared for non-specialists. Polar Portal aims to meet widespread public interest in a diverse range of climate-cryosphere processes in the Arctic: What is the present Greenland ice sheet contribution to sea level rise? How quickly are outlet glaciers retreating or advancing right now? How extensive is Arctic sea-ice or how warm is the Arctic Ocean at this moment? Although public interest in such topics is widely acknowledged, an important primary task for the scientists behind Polar Portal was collaborating with media specialists to establish the knowledge range of the general public on these topics, in order for Polar Portal to appropriately present useful climate-cryosphere information. Consequently, Polar Portal is designed in a highly visual exploratory format, where individual data products are accompanied by plain written summaries, with hyperlinks to relevant journal papers for more scrutinizing users. Numerous satellite and in situ observations, together with model output, are channeled daily into the Greenland ice sheet and Arctic sea-ice divisions of Polar Portal.

Reconciling records of ice streaming and ice margin retreat to produce a palaeogeographic reconstruction of the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Margold, Martin; Stokes, Chris R.; Clark, Chris D.

2018-06-01

This paper reconstructs the deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS; including the Innuitian Ice Sheet) from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), with a particular focus on the spatial and temporal variations in ice streaming and the associated changes in flow patterns and ice divides. We build on a recent inventory of Laurentide ice streams and use an existing ice margin chronology to produce the first detailed transient reconstruction of the ice stream drainage network in the LIS, which we depict in a series of palaeogeographic maps. Results show that the drainage network at the LGM was similar to modern-day Antarctica. The majority of the ice streams were marine terminating and topographically-controlled and many of these continued to function late into the deglaciation, until the ice sheet lost its marine margin. Ice streams with a terrestrial ice margin in the west and south were more transient and ice flow directions changed with the build-up, peak-phase and collapse of the Cordilleran-Laurentide ice saddle. The south-eastern marine margin in Atlantic Canada started to retreat relatively early and some of the ice streams in this region switched off at or shortly after the LGM. In contrast, the ice streams draining towards the north-western and north-eastern marine margins in the Beaufort Sea and in Baffin Bay appear to have remained stable throughout most of the Late Glacial, and some of them continued to function until after the Younger Dryas (YD). The YD influenced the dynamics of the deglaciation, but there remains uncertainty about the response of the ice sheet in several sectors. We tentatively ascribe the switching-on of some major ice streams during this period (e.g. M'Clintock Channel Ice Stream at the north-west margin), but for other large ice streams whose timing partially overlaps with the YD, the drivers are less clear and ice-dynamical processes, rather than effects of climate and surface mass balance are viewed as more likely drivers. Retreat rates markedly increased after the YD and the ice sheet became limited to the Canadian Shield. This hard-bed substrate brought a change in the character of ice streaming, which became less frequent but generated much broader terrestrial ice streams. The final collapse of the ice sheet saw a series of small ephemeral ice streams that resulted from the rapidly changing ice sheet geometry in and around Hudson Bay. Our reconstruction indicates that the LIS underwent a transition from a topographically-controlled ice drainage network at the LGM to an ice drainage network characterised by less frequent, broad ice streams during the later stages of deglaciation. These deglacial ice streams are mostly interpreted as a reaction to localised ice-dynamical forcing (flotation and calving of the ice front in glacial lakes and transgressing sea; basal de-coupling due to large amount of meltwater reaching the bed, debuttressing due to rapid changes in ice sheet geometry) rather than as conveyors of excess mass from the accumulation area of the ice sheet. At an ice sheet scale, the ice stream drainage network became less widespread and less efficient with the decreasing size of the deglaciating ice sheet, the final elimination of which was mostly driven by surface melt.

Paleohydrologic regimes in the southwestern Great Basin, 0-3.2 my ago, compared with other long records of "gobal" climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, G.I.

1984-01-01

Nine distinct paleohydrologic regimes in the southwestern Great Basin over the last 3.2 my are recorded by the lacustrine deposits in KM-3, a 930-m core from Searles Lake, California. These are characterized as being "wet," "intermediate," or "dry" (like today). Excepting the present incomplete regime, each lasted 0.12 to 0.76 my. Major regime changes 0.01, 0.13, 0.6, and 2.5 my ago appear to coincide with recognized changes in global ice-sheet histories as represented by 18O and other records from marine sediments, but comparable changes 0.3, 1.0, 1.3, and 2.0 my ago do not appear to coincide closely with comparable perturbations in ice-sheet histories. However, all regime boundaries (during the last 1.75 my) coincide closely in time with changes in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and many coincide with other deep-sea and continental paleoclimatic boundaries.The average duration of these paleohydrologic regimes was about 0.4 my (standard deviation, 0.2 my or less, depending on assumptions), and it is suggested that the regime boundaries reflect times of change in global(?) sea-surface temperatures, possibly controlled in part by the Earth's 413,000-yr orbital eccentricity cycle. During the wettest and driest regimes in the Searles Lake area, lake levels were not sufficiently affected by the 23,000-, to 42,000-, or 100,000-yr climate cycles related to high-latitude ice-sheet fluctuations to produce changes in the lacustrine sediment character. During intermediate regimes, however, when lacustrine sedimentation in this area was more sensitive to climate, the sediments, in KM-3, record lake fluctuations with average frequencies near those of the ice sheets. This seems to indicate that the high-latitude ice-sheet fluctuations caused local climatic perturbations but did not dominate the hydrologic component of climate in this area. Other lacustrine deposits in the southwestern Great Basin of California and Nevada have ages comparable in part to those of the wet to intermediate regimes indicated by KM-3, and they may all be products of finite periods when lake expansion, alluvial fan growth, increased spring discharge, and fluvial deposition were promoted in this area by widespread wet climates. Glacier expansion in the Sierra Nevada may also have been primarily an expression of, and in phase with, these wet regimes. ?? 1984.

Greenland Ice Sheet seasonal and spatial mass variability from model simulations and GRACE (2003-2012)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Patrick M.; Tedesco, Marco; Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne; Luthcke, Scott B.; Fettweis, Xavier; Larour, Eric

2016-06-01

Improving the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) and ice sheet models (ISMs) to simulate spatiotemporal variations in the mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is crucial for prediction of future sea level rise. While several studies have examined recent trends in GrIS mass loss, studies focusing on mass variations at sub-annual and sub-basin-wide scales are still lacking. At these scales, processes responsible for mass change are less well understood and modeled, and could potentially play an important role in future GrIS mass change. Here, we examine spatiotemporal variations in mass over the GrIS derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites for the January 2003-December 2012 period using a "mascon" approach, with a nominal spatial resolution of 100 km, and a temporal resolution of 10 days. We compare GRACE-estimated mass variations against those simulated by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale (MAR) RCM and the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM). In order to properly compare spatial and temporal variations in GrIS mass from GRACE with model outputs, we find it necessary to spatially and temporally filter model results to reproduce leakage of mass inherent in the GRACE solution. Both modeled and satellite-derived results point to a decline (of -178.9 ± 4.4 and -239.4 ± 7.7 Gt yr-1 respectively) in GrIS mass over the period examined, but the models appear to underestimate the rate of mass loss, especially in areas below 2000 m in elevation, where the majority of recent GrIS mass loss is occurring. On an ice-sheet-wide scale, the timing of the modeled seasonal cycle of cumulative mass (driven by summer mass loss) agrees with the GRACE-derived seasonal cycle, within limits of uncertainty from the GRACE solution. However, on sub-ice-sheet-wide scales, some areas exhibit significant differences in the timing of peaks in the annual cycle of mass change. At these scales, model biases, or processes not accounted for by models related to ice dynamics or hydrology, may lead to the observed differences. This highlights the need for further evaluation of modeled processes at regional and seasonal scales, and further study of ice sheet processes not accounted for, such as the role of subglacial hydrology in variations in glacial flow.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Measuring the Surface Temperature of the Cryosphere using Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.

2012-01-01

A general description of the remote sensing of cryosphere surface temperatures from satellites will be provided. This will give historical information on surface-temperature measurements from space. There will also be a detailed description of measuring the surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data which will be the focus of the presentation. Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate data record, trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the MODIS IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now freely available to download at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. The consistency of this IST record, with temperature and melt records from other sources will be discussed.

Frozen-bed Fennoscandian and Laurentide ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kleman, Johan; Hättestrand, Clas

1999-11-01

The areal extents of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum (about 20,000 years ago) are well known, but thickness estimates range widely, from high-domed to thin, with large implications for our reconstruction of the climate system regarding, for example, Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation and global sea levels. This uncertainty stems from difficulties in determining the basal temperatures of the ice sheets and the shear strength of subglacial materials, a knowledge of which would better constrain reconstructions of ice-sheet thickness. Here we show that, in the absence of direct data, the occurrence of ribbed moraines in modern landscapes can be used to determine the former spatial distribution of frozen- and thawed-bed conditions. We argue that ribbed moraines were formed by brittle fracture of subglacial sediments, induced by the excessive stress at the boundary between frozen- and thawed-bed conditions resulting from the across-boundary difference in basal ice velocity. Maps of glacial landforms from aerial photographs of Canada and Scandinavia reveal a concentration of ribbed moraines around the ice-sheet retreat centres of Quebec, Keewatin, Newfoundland and west-central Fennoscandia. Together with the evidence from relict landscapes that mark glacial areas with frozen-bed conditions, the distribution of ribbed moraines on both continents suggest that a large area of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets was frozen-based-and therefore high-domed and stable-during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Understanding ice sheet evolution to avoid massive sea level rise instead of experiencing it (Louis Agassiz Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, Eric

2017-04-01

With unabated climate warming, massive sea level rise from the melting of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica looms at the horizon. This is unfortunately an experiment that we can afford to run only once. Satellite and airborne sensors have significantly helped reveal the magnitude of the mass balance of the ice sheets, where the changes take place, when they started, how they change with time and the nature of the physical processes controlling them. These observations have constrained the maturation of numerical modeling techniques for projecting changes in these ice sheets, including the coupling of ocean and ice sheet models, yet significant uncertainties remain to make these projections directly policy relevant and many challenges remain. I will review the state of balance of the ice sheets as we know it today and the fundamental processes that will drive fast ice sheet retreat and sea level change: ice-ocean interaction and iceberg calving. Ice-ocean interaction are dominated by the wind-forced intrusion of warm, salty, subsurface waters toward the ice sheet periphery to melt ice from below at rates orders of magnitude greater than at the surface. In Greenland, these rates are difficult to observe, but model simulations indicate rates of ice melt along vertical calving faces of meters per day, along with undercutting of the ice faces. Constraining the temperature of the ocean waters from high resolution models and observations, however, remains a significant challenge. I will describe the progress we have made in addressing one major issue which is the mapping of fjord bathymetry around Greenland to define the pathways for warm waters. In Antarctica, the rates of melt are measured from remote sensing data but averaged over long periods, so that we are dependent on in-situ observations to understand the interaction of ocean waters with ice within the sub-ice-shelf cavities. I will describe progress made in mapping the bathymetry of the ice shelves and how the results have impacted our understanding of these interactions. In terms of calving, there is a range of processes acting upon the glacier and ice shelf faces, proceeding from the surface and mostly from below, that are still not sufficiently well explored. I will discuss processes elucidated in Greenland (undercutting and rotation of ice blocks near floatation) and those that are not well known in Antarctica.

Rapid sea level rise and ice sheet response to 8,200-year climate event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, T. M.; Vogt, P.R.; Willard, D.A.; Thunell, R.; Halka, J.; Berke, M.; Pohlman, J.

2007-01-01

The largest abrupt climatic reversal of the Holocene interglacial, the cooling event 8.6–8.2 thousand years ago (ka), was probably caused by catastrophic release of glacial Lake Agassiz-Ojibway, which slowed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and cooled global climate. Geophysical surveys and sediment cores from Chesapeake Bay reveal the pattern of sea level rise during this event. Sea level rose ∼14 m between 9.5 to 7.5 ka, a pattern consistent with coral records and the ICE-5G glacio-isostatic adjustment model. There were two distinct periods at ∼8.9–8.8 and ∼8.2–7.6 ka when Chesapeake marshes were drown as sea level rose rapidly at least ∼12 mm yr−1. The latter event occurred after the 8.6–8.2 ka cooling event, coincided with extreme warming and vigorous AMOC centered on 7.9 ka, and may have been due to Antarctic Ice Sheet decay.

Formation of lobate debris aprons on Mars: Assessment of regional ice sheet collapse and debris-cover armoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, James L.; Head, James W.; Marchant, David R.

2014-01-01

Lobate debris aprons (LDA) are lobate-shaped aprons surrounding scarps and isolated massifs that are concentrated in the vicinity of the northern Dichotomy Boundary on Mars. LDAs have been interpreted as (1) ice-cemented talus aprons undergoing viscous flow, (2) local debris-covered alpine-like glaciers, or (3) remnants of the collapse of a regional retreating ice sheet. We investigate the plausibility that LDAs are remnants of a more extensive regional ice sheet by modeling this process. We find that as a regional ice sheet collapses, the surface drops below cliff and massif bedrock margins, exposing bedrock and regolith, and initiating debris deposition on the surface of a cold-based glacier. Reduced sublimation due to debris-cover armoring of the proto-LDA surface produces a surface slope and consequent ice flow that carries the armoring debris away from the rock outcrops. As collapse and ice retreat continue the debris train eventually reaches the substrate surface at the front of the glacier, leaving the entire LDA armored by debris cover. Using a simplified ice flow model we are able to characterize the temperature and sublimation rate that would be necessary to produce LDAs with a wide range of specified lateral extents and thicknesses. We then apply this method to a database of documented LDA parameters (height, lateral extent) from the Dichotomy Boundary region, and assess the implications for predicted climate conditions during their formation and the range of formation times implied by the model. We find that for the population examined here, typical temperatures are in the range of -85 to -40 °C and typical sublimation rates lie in the range of 6-14 mm/a. Lobate debris apron formation times (from the point of bedrock exposure to complete debris cover) cluster near 400-500 ka. These results show that LDA length and thickness characteristics are consistent with climate conditions and a formation scenario typical of the collapse of a regional retreating ice sheet and exposure of bedrock cliffs. This scenario helps resolve many of the unusual characteristics of lobate debris aprons (LDA) and lineated valley fill (LVF). For example, the distribution of LVF is very consistent with extensive flow of glacial ice from plateau icefields, and the acquisition of a debris cover in the waning stages of retreat of the regional cover as the bedrock scarps are exposed. The typical concentric development of LDA around massifs is much more consistent with ice sheet retreat than insolation-related local accumulation and flow. We thus conclude that the retreating ice-sheet model is robust and should be investigated and tested in more detail. In addition, these results clearly show that the lobate debris aprons in the vicinity of the Dichotomy Boundary could not have attained temperatures near or above the ice melting point and retained their current shape, a finding that supports subzero temperatures for the last several hundred million years, the age of the LDA surfaces. A further implication is that the LDA ice has been preserved for at least several hundred million years, and could potentially contain the record of the climate of Mars, preserved since that time below a sublimation lag deposit.

Northern Hemisphere forcing of Southern Hemisphere climate during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

He, Feng; Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; Carlson, Anders E; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Kutzbach, John E

2013-02-07

According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in summer insolation in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere caused glacial cycles through their impact on ice-sheet mass balance. Statistical analyses of long climate records supported this theory, but they also posed a substantial challenge by showing that changes in Southern Hemisphere climate were in phase with or led those in the north. Although an orbitally forced Northern Hemisphere signal may have been transmitted to the Southern Hemisphere, insolation forcing can also directly influence local Southern Hemisphere climate, potentially intensified by sea-ice feedback, suggesting that the hemispheres may have responded independently to different aspects of orbital forcing. Signal processing of climate records cannot distinguish between these conditions, however, because the proposed insolation forcings share essentially identical variability. Here we use transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model to identify the impacts of forcing from changes in orbits, atmospheric CO(2) concentration, ice sheets and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on hemispheric temperatures during the first half of the last deglaciation (22-14.3 kyr BP). Although based on a single model, our transient simulation with only orbital changes supports the Milankovitch theory in showing that the last deglaciation was initiated by rising insolation during spring and summer in the mid-latitude to high-latitude Northern Hemisphere and by terrestrial snow-albedo feedback. The simulation with all forcings best reproduces the timing and magnitude of surface temperature evolution in the Southern Hemisphere in deglacial proxy records. AMOC changes associated with an orbitally induced retreat of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets is the most plausible explanation for the early Southern Hemisphere deglacial warming and its lead over Northern Hemisphere temperature; the ensuing rise in atmospheric CO(2) concentration provided the critical feedback on global deglaciation.

Ice sheets as a significant source of highly reactive nanoparticulate iron to the oceans.

PubMed

Hawkings, Jon R; Wadham, Jemma L; Tranter, Martyn; Raiswell, Rob; Benning, Liane G; Statham, Peter J; Tedstone, Andrew; Nienow, Peter; Lee, Katherine; Telling, Jon

2014-05-21

The Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets cover ~ 10% of global land surface, but are rarely considered as active components of the global iron cycle. The ocean waters around both ice sheets harbour highly productive coastal ecosystems, many of which are iron limited. Measurements of iron concentrations in subglacial runoff from a large Greenland Ice Sheet catchment reveal the potential for globally significant export of labile iron fractions to the near-coastal euphotic zone. We estimate that the flux of bioavailable iron associated with glacial runoff is 0.40-2.54 Tg per year in Greenland and 0.06-0.17 Tg per year in Antarctica. Iron fluxes are dominated by a highly reactive and potentially bioavailable nanoparticulate suspended sediment fraction, similar to that identified in Antarctic icebergs. Estimates of labile iron fluxes in meltwater are comparable with aeolian dust fluxes to the oceans surrounding Greenland and Antarctica, and are similarly expected to increase in a warming climate with enhanced melting.

Tracking millennial-scale Holocene glacial advance and retreat using osmium isotopes: Insights from the Greenland ice sheet

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rooney, Alan D.; Selby, David; Llyod, Jeremy M.; Roberts, David H.; Luckge, Andreas; Sageman, Bradley B.; Prouty, Nancy G.

2016-01-01

High-resolution Os isotope stratigraphy can aid in reconstructing Pleistocene ice sheet fluctuation and elucidating the role of local and regional weathering fluxes on the marine Os residence time. This paper presents new Os isotope data from ocean cores adjacent to the West Greenland ice sheet that have excellent chronological controls. Cores MSM-520 and DA00-06 represent distal to proximal sites adjacent to two West Greenland ice streams. Core MSM-520 has a steadily decreasing Os signal over the last 10 kyr (187Os/188Os = 1.35–0.81). In contrast, Os isotopes from core DA00-06 (proximal to the calving front of Jakobshavn Isbræ) highlight four stages of ice stream retreat and advance over the past 10 kyr (187Os/188Os = 2.31; 1.68; 2.09; 1.47). Our high-resolution chemostratigraphic records provide vital benchmarks for ice-sheet modelers as we attempt to better constrain the future response of major ice sheets to climate change. Variations in Os isotope composition from sediment and macro-algae (seaweed) sourced from regional and global settings serve to emphasize the overwhelming effect weathering sources have on seawater Os isotope composition. Further, these findings demonstrate that the residence time of Os is shorter than previous estimates of ∼104 yr.

Effect of en-glacial water on ice sheet temperatures in a warming climate - a model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, T. P.; Rajaram, H.; Steffen, K.

2009-12-01

Each summer, significant amount of melt is generated in the ablation zones of large glaciers and ice sheets. This melt does not run off on the surface of the glacier or ice sheet. In fact a significant fraction enters the glacier and flows through en-glacial and sub-glacial hydrologic systems. Correspondingly, the en-glacial and sub-glacial hydrologic systems are brought to a temperature close to the pressure melting point of ice. The thermal influence of these hydrologic processes is seldom incorporated in heat transfer models for glaciers and ice sheets. In a warming climate, as melt water generation is amplified, en-glacial and sub-glacial hydrologic processes can influence the thermal dynamics of an ice sheet significantly, a feedback which is missed in current models. Although the role of refreezing melt water in the firn of the accumulation zone is often accounted for to explain warmer near-surface temperatures, the role of melt water flow within a glacier is not considered in large ice sheet models. We propose a simple parameterization of the influence of en-glacial and sub-glacial hydrology on the thermal dynamics of ice sheets, in the form of a dual-column model. Our model basically modifies the classical Budd column model for temperature variations in ice sheets by introducing an interaction with an en-glacial column, where the temperature is brought to the melting point during the melt season, and winter-time refreezing is influenced by latent heat effects associated with water retained within the en-glacial and sub-glacial systems. A cryo-hydraulic heat exchange coefficient ς is defined, as a parameter that quantifies this interaction. The parameter ς is related to k/R^2, where R is the characteristic spacing between en-glacial passages. The general behavior of the dual-column model is influenced by the competition between cooling by horizontal advection and warming by cryo-hydraulic exchange. We present a dimensionless parameter to quantify this competition. Model simulations indicate that the combination of en-glacial water flow and winter snow cover can warm the ice and produce a higher steady state en-glacial temperature. Transient simulations indicate a spin-up period of approximately 10 years until the new steady state is attained. The en-glacially trapped water prevents the ice from cooling as the Arctic winter approaches. As the water refreezes in the shallow ice, the snow cover reaches a thickness that insulates the ice and slows further cooling. The en-glacial temperature is highly dependent on the magnitude of the cryo-hydraulic term (warming) and the magnitude of the horizontal advection term (cooling) which control the newly reached balance. The dual-column model was applied to analyze deep borehole temperature profiles from five sites on Dead Glacier in western Greenland north of Jakobshavn Glacier. The model was able to explain some features of the borehole temperatures that cannot be explained by the conventional single column model.

A comprehensive interpretation of the NEEM basal ice build-up using a multi-parametric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goossens, Thomas; Sapart, Célia J.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Popp, Trevor; El Amri, Saïda; Tison, Jean-Louis

2016-03-01

Basal ice is a common expression to describe bottom ice layers of glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets in which the ice is primarily conditioned by processes operating at the bed. It is chemically and/or physically distinct from the ice above and can be characterized by a component of basally derived sediments. The study of basal ice properties provides a rare opportunity to improve our understanding of subglacial environments and processes and to refine ice sheet behaviour modelling. Here, we present and discuss the results of water stable isotopes (δ18O and δD), ice fabrics, debris weight/size distribution and gas content of the basal part of the NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project) ice core. Below a depth of 2533.85 m, almost 10 m of basal debris-rich material was retrieved from the borehole, and regular occurrence of frozen sediments with only interstitial ice lenses in the bottom 5 m suggest that the ice-bedrock interface was reached. The sequence is composed of an alternation of three visually contrasting types of ice: clear ice with specks (very small amounts) of particulate inclusions, stratified debris-rich layers and ice containing dispersed debris. The use of water stable isotope signatures (δ18O and δD), together with other parameters, allows discrimination between the different types of ice and to unravel the processes involved in their formation and transformation. The basal debris-rich material presents δ18O values [-39.9 ‰; -34.4 ‰] within the range of the above last 300 m of unaltered meteoric ice [-44.9 ‰; -30.6 ‰] spanning a glacial-interglacial range of values. This rules out the hypothesis of a basal ice layer originating from pre-ice sheet ice overridden by the growing ice sheet, as previously suggested e.g. in the case of GRIP (Greenland Ice Core Project). We show that clear basal ice with specks corresponds to altered meteoric glacial ice where some of the climatic signal could have been preserved. However, the stratified debris-rich layers and the ice containing dispersed debris layers respectively express an "open" or "closed" system melting/refreezing signature, somewhat blurred by mixing processes in the upper part of the sequence. Climatic reconstruction is therefore prohibited from these ice types. We propose a first interpretative framework for the build-up of the NEEM basal ice sequence, based on the origin of the various ice types.

Ice Sheet System Model as Educational Entertainment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez, G.

2013-12-01

Understanding the importance of polar ice sheets and their role in the evolution of Sea Level Rise (SLR), as well as Climate Change, is of paramount importance for policy makers as well as the public and schools at large. For example, polar ice sheets and glaciers currently account for 1/3 of the SLR signal, a ratio that will increase in the near to long-term future, which has tremendous societal ramifications. Consequently, it is important to increase awareness about our changing planet. In our increasingly digital society, mobile and web applications are burgeoning venues for such outreach. The Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) is a software that was developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory/CalTech/NASA, in collaboration with University of California Irvine (UCI), with the goal of better understanding the evolution of polar ice sheets. It is a state-of-the-art framework, which relies on higher-end cluster-computing to address some of the aforementioned challenges. In addition, it is a flexible framework that can be deployed on any hardware; in particular, on mobile platforms such as Android or iOS smart phones. Here, we look at how the ISSM development team managed to port their model to these platforms, what the implications are for improving how scientists disseminate their results, and how a broader audience may familiarize themselves with running complex climate models in simplified scenarios which are highly educational and entertaining in content. We also look at the future plans toward a web portal fully integrated with mobile technologies to deliver the best content to the public, and to provide educational plans/lessons that can be used in grades K-12 as well as collegiate under-graduate and graduate programs.

PRISM4: Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping mid Piacenzian paleoenvironmental reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D. B.; Moucha, R.; Forte, A. M.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Pound, M. J.; Salzmann, U.; Robinson, M. M.; Chandler, M. A.; Foley, K.; Haywood, A.

2016-12-01

Past Intervals in Earth history provide unique windows into conditions much different than those observed today. We investigated the paleoenvironments of a past warm interval in the mid Piacenzian ( 3 million years ago). The PRISM4 reconstruction contains twelve internally consistent and integrated data sets representing our best synoptic understanding of surface temperature, vegetation, soils, lakes, ice sheets, topography, and bathymetry. Starting points in the generation of our Piacenzian reconstruction are basic geochemical, faunal, floral, soil, cryospheric, topographic, bathymetric, sedimentologic, and stratigraphic data. Marine and terrestral temperature estimates are based upon multiple proxies (including faunal, floral, geochemical, and biomarker analyses). The reconstruction of Piacenzian global vegetation is based on the integration of paleobotanical data and BIOME4 model outputs. Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets are derived from the previous PRISM3 and PLISMIP (Pliocene Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project) results, respectively. Paleogeography is based upon an initial ETOPO1 digital elevation model incorporating PRISM4 ice sheets, GIA, and adjustments due to mantle convection. Soils are determined through comparison of sedimentological and stratigraphic data with the BIOME reconstruction. Lakes are determined from stratigraphic and sedimentological data. Sea-level equivalent (+20 m) is estimated from the reduced volume of the PRISM4 ice sheets and is consistent with our PRISM4 paleogeography. While not an analog for future conditions, the PRISM4 conceptual reconstruction provides insights into processes that occurred in the past and can inform us about the future. We will discuss the use of these data as boundary conditions and verification for global climate model simulations of the Pliocene, aimed at improving our understanding of the climate system as we prepare for future changes.

The effect of sudden ice sheet melt on ocean circulation and surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, R. F.; Gregoire, L. J.; Wickert, A. D.; Valdes, P. J.; Burke, A.

2017-12-01

Collapse of ice sheets can cause significant sea-level rise and widespread climate change. Around 14.6 thousand years ago, global mean sea level rose by 15 m in less than 350 years during an event known as Meltwater Pulse 1a. Ice sheet modelling and sea-level fingerprinting has suggested that approximately half of this 50 mm yr-1 sea level rise may have come from a North American ice Saddle Collapse that drained into the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. However, dating uncertainties make it difficult to determine the sequence of events and their drivers, leaving many fundamental questions. For example, was melting from the northern ice sheets responsible for the Older-Dryas or other global-scale cooling events, or did a contribution from Antarctica counteract the climatic effects? What was the role of the abrupt Bølling Warming? And how were all these signals linked to changes in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation?To address these questions, we examined the effect of the North American ice Saddle Collapse using a high resolution network drainage model coupled to an atmosphere-ocean-vegetation General Circulation Model. Here, we present the quantitative routing estimates of the consequent meltwater discharge and its impact on climate. We also tested a suite of more idealised meltwater forcing scenarios to examine the global influence of Arctic versus Antarctic ice melt. The results show that 50% of the Saddle Collapse meltwater pulse was routed via the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean, and 50% was discharged directly into the Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. This meltwater flux, equivalent to a total of 7.3 m of sea-level rise, caused a strong (6 Sv) weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling of 1-5 °C. The greatest cooling is in the Arctic (5-10 °C in the winter), but there is also significant winter warming over eastern North America (1-3 °C). We propose that this robust submillennial mechanism was triggered by the Bølling Warming, ending the warm event and/or causing the Older Dryas cooling. Furthermore, we find that AMOC is most sensitive to meltwater discharged to the Arctic Ocean and that high-latitude northern melt overwhelms any opposing influence of Antarctic melt, which would otherwise cause northern warming.

Sensitivity of the Younger Dryas climate to changes in orbtial, greenhouse gas, and freshwater forcing in CESM1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughlett, T. M.; Winguth, A. M. E.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; He, F.

2016-12-01

The Younger Dryas cooling event ( 12,900 years before present) was the most recent abrupt climate change in the geologic record where climate for the Northern Hemisphere returned to a near-glacial state. The cause of this cooling event is widely controversial, and no consensus has been found as to why the onset of the cooling occurred. Of the several hypotheses proposed, the freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean due to meltwater discharge from the retreating Lake Agassiz and subsequent changes in Atlantic meridional oceanic circulation (AMOC) is the most widely accepted one. In this study, the Community Earth System Model version 1 was used to perform sensitivity experiments to test how the AMOC responds to a freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean over the course of 1,000 years. This study is the first fully coupled, moderate-resolution simulation that implements a 13.1ka ice sheet (ICE-5G) along with Younger Dryas boundary and initial conditions. With the addition of the 13.1ka ice sheet and a 0.3 Sverdrup (Sv) freshwater discharge into the Northern Atlantic Ocean, the AMOC reduces by approximately 20 Sv, coming to a substantially slowed-down state of approximately 5 Sv. This reduction of the AMOC causes a decrease in surface air temperature of approximately 15 °C, which is in agreement with surface air temperature reconstructions from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2. Overall, the simulation presented in this study accurately represents the climatic state of the Younger Dryas cooling event.

Deciphering the evolution of the last Eurasian ice sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Anna; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Mangerud, Jan; Svendsen, John Inge

2016-04-01

Glacial geologists need ice sheet-scale chronological reconstructions of former ice extent to set individual records in a wider context and compare interpretations of ice sheet response to records of past environmental changes. Ice sheet modellers require empirical reconstructions on size and volume of past ice sheets that are fully documented, specified in time and include uncertainty estimates for model validation or constraints. Motivated by these demands, in 2005 we started a project (Database of the Eurasian Deglaciation, DATED) to compile and archive all published dates relevant to constraining the build-up and retreat of the last Eurasian ice sheets, including the British-Irish, Scandinavian and Svalbard-Barents-Kara Seas ice sheets (BIIS, SIS and SBKIS respectively). Over 5000 dates were assessed for reliability and used together with published ice-sheet margin positions to reconstruct time-slice maps of the ice sheets' extent, with uncertainty bounds, every 1000 years between 25-10 kyr ago and at four additional periods back to 40 kyr ago. Ten years after the idea for a database was conceived, the first version of results (DATED-1) has now been released (Hughes et al. 2016). We observe that: i) both the BIIS and SBKIS achieve maximum extent, and commence retreat earlier than the larger SIS; ii) the eastern terrestrial margin of the SIS reached its maximum extent up to 7000 years later than the westernmost marine margin; iii) the combined maximum ice volume (~24 m sea-level equivalent) was reached c. 21 ka; iv) large uncertainties exist; predominantly across marine sectors (e.g. the timing of coalescence and separation of the SIS and BKIS) but also in well-studied areas due to conflicting yet equally robust data. In just three years since the DATED-1 census (1 January 2013), the volume of new information (from both dates and mapped glacial geomorphology) has grown significantly (~1000 new dates). Here, we present the DATED-1 results in the context of the climatic changes of the last glacial, discuss the implications of emerging post-census data, and describe plans for the next version of the database, DATED-2. Hughes, A. L. C., Gyllencreutz, R., Lohne, Ø. S., Mangerud, J., Svendsen, J. I. 2016: The last Eurasian ice sheets - a chronological database and time-slice reconstruction, DATED-1. Boreas, 45, 1-45. 10.1111/bor.12142

Improved age constraints for the retreat of the Irish Sea Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smedley, Rachel; Chiverrell, Richard; Duller, Geoff; Scourse, James; Small, David; Fabel, Derek; Burke, Matthew; Clarke, Chris; McCarroll, Danny; McCarron, Stephen; O'Cofaigh, Colm; Roberts, David

2016-04-01

BRITICE-CHRONO is a large (> 45 researchers) consortium project working to provide an extensive geochronological dataset constraining the rate of retreat of a number of ice streams of the British-Irish Ice Sheet following the Last Glacial Maximum. When complete, the large empirical dataset produced by BRITICE-CHRONO will be integrated into model simulations to better understand the behaviour of the British-Irish Ice Sheet in response to past climate change, and provide an analogue for contemporary ice sheets. A major feature of the British-Irish Ice Sheet was the dynamic Irish Sea Ice Stream, which drained a large proportion of the ice sheet and extended to the proposed southern limit of glaciation upon the Isles of Scilly (Scourse, 1991). This study will focus on a large suite of terrestrial samples that were collected along a transect of the Irish Sea basin, covering the line of ice retreat from the Isles of Scilly (50°N) in the south, to the Isle of Man (54°N) in the north; a distance of 500 km. Ages are determined for both the eastern and western margins of the Irish Sea using single-grain luminescence dating (39 samples) and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide dating (10 samples). A Bayesian sequence model is then used in combination with the prior information determined for deglaciation to integrate the geochronological datasets, and assess retreat rates for the Irish Sea Ice Stream. Scourse, J.D., 1991. Late Pleistocene stratigraphy and palaeobotany of the Isles of Scilly. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B334, 405 - 448.

1988 Macelwane Medal to Douglas R. MacAyeal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Robert H.; MacAyeal, Douglas R.

Doug MacAyeal is one of the foremost scientists working on ice sheet glaciology. He has focused attention on problems that are critical to ice sheet response to climate change and has developed a powerful capability to develop realistic theoretical models of phenomena of which he has first-hand experience.I met Doug 12 years ago at the University of Maine, where I was seeking a graduate assistant to work with me, measuring patterns of ice deformation in order to investigate the role of the Ross Ice Shelf in regulating ice discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet. I had only recently arrived in Maine, and I have to confess that I expected little more than to find an eager, strong young chap to help out with the field work. I expected to rely on my own meager resources to interpret the data that we would acquire. But instead, the first student I interviewed was Doug—a highly qualified physics graduate from Brown University. He had already developed a catastrophe model of paleoclimate in which global ice cover played a key role. It need hardly be said that I interviewed no others.

The role of satellite altimetry in climate studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parsons, C. L.

1980-01-01

The results of three generations of satellite-borne radar altimetry experiments are summarized. The diverse measurements possible from this instrument are shown to be directly applicable to studies of the importance of the oceans in climate. The radar altimeter has unique value for investigations seeking knowledge of the interconnections between ocean dynamics, heat and momentum transfer across the air-sea interface, sea ice extent, and polar ice sheet thickness.

Toward Surface Mass Balance Modeling over Antarctic Peninsula with Improved Snow/Ice Physics within WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villamil-Otero, G.; Zhang, J.; Yao, Y.

2017-12-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has long been the focus of climate change studies due to its rapid environmental changes such as significantly increased glacier melt and retreat, and ice-shelf break-up. Progress has been continuously made in the use of regional modeling to simulate surface mass changes over ice sheets. Most efforts, however, focus on the ice sheets of Greenland with considerable fewer studies in Antarctica. In this study the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been applied to the Antarctic region for weather modeling, is adopted to capture the past and future surface mass balance changes over AP. In order to enhance the capabilities of WRF model simulating surface mass balance over the ice surface, we implement various ice and snow processes within the WRF and develop a new WRF suite (WRF-Ice). The WRF-Ice includes a thermodynamic ice sheet model that improves the representation of internal melting and refreezing processes and the thermodynamic effects over ice sheet. WRF-Ice also couples a thermodynamic sea ice model to improve the simulation of surface temperature and fluxes over sea ice. Lastly, complex snow processes are also taken into consideration including the implementation of a snowdrift model that takes into account the redistribution of blowing snow as well as the thermodynamic impact of drifting snow sublimation on the lower atmospheric boundary layer. Intensive testing of these ice and snow processes are performed to assess the capability of WRF-Ice in simulating the surface mass balance changes over AP.

Determining Greenland Ice Sheet Accumulation Rates from Radar Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jezek, Kenneth C.

2002-01-01

An important component of NASA's Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a mass balance investigation of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The mass balance is calculated by taking the difference between the areally Integrated snow accumulation and the net ice discharge of the ice sheet. Uncertainties in this calculation Include the snow accumulation rate, which has traditionally been determined by interpolating data from ice core samples taken from isolated spots across the ice sheet. The sparse data associated with ice cores juxtaposed against the high spatial and temporal resolution provided by remote sensing , has motivated scientists to investigate relationships between accumulation rate and microwave observations as an option for obtaining spatially contiguous estimates. The objective of this PARCA continuation proposal was to complete an estimate of surface accumulation rate on the Greenland Ice Sheet derived from C-band radar backscatter data compiled in the ERS-1 SAR mosaic of data acquired during, September-November, 1992. An empirical equation, based on elevation and latitude, is used to determine the mean annual temperature. We examine the influence of accumulation rate, and mean annual temperature on C-band radar backscatter using a forward model, which incorporates snow metamorphosis and radar backscatter components. Our model is run over a range of accumulation and temperature conditions. Based on the model results, we generate a look-up table, which uniquely maps the measured radar backscatter, and mean annual temperature to accumulation rate. Our results compare favorably with in situ accumulation rate measurements falling within our study area.

Early glaciation already during the Early Miocene in the Amundsen Sea, Southern Pacific: Indications from the distribution of sedimentary sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uenzelmann-Neben, Gabriele; Gohl, Karsten

2014-09-01

The distribution and internal architecture of seismostratigraphic sequences observed on the Antarctic continental slope and rise are results of sediment transport and deposition by bottom currents and ice sheets. Analysis of seismic reflection data allows to reconstruct sediment input and sediment transport patterns and to infer past changes in climate and oceanography. We observe four seismostratigraphic units which show distinct differences in location and shape of their depocentres and which accumulated at variable sedimentation rates. We used an age-depth model based on DSDP Leg 35 Site 324 for the Plio/Pleistocene and a correlation with seismic reflection characteristics from the Ross and Bellingshausen Seas, which unfortunately has large uncertainties. For the period before 21 Ma, we interpret low energy input of detritus via a palaeo-delta originating in an area of the Amundsen Sea shelf, where a palaeo-ice stream trough (Pine Island Trough East, PITE) is located today, and deposition of this material on the continental rise under sea ice coverage. For the period 21-14.1 Ma we postulate glacial erosion for the hinterland of this part of West Antarctica, which resulted in a larger depocentre and an increase in mass transport deposits. Warming during the Mid Miocene Climatic Optimum resulted in a polythermal ice sheet and led to a higher sediment supply along a broad front but with a focus via two palaeo-ice stream troughs, PITE and Abbot Trough (AT). Most of the glaciogenic debris was transported onto the eastern Amundsen Sea rise where it was shaped into levee-drifts by a re-circulating bottom current. A reduced sediment accumulation in the deep-sea subsequent to the onset of climatic cooling after 14 Ma indicates a reduced sediment supply probably in response to a colder and drier ice sheet. A dynamic ice sheet since 4 Ma delivered material offshore mainly via AT and Pine Island Trough West (PITW). Interaction of this glaciogenic detritus with a west-setting bottom current resulted in the continued formation of levee-drifts in the eastern and central Amundsen Sea.

A scanning radar altimeter for mapping continental topography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixon, T. H.

1986-01-01

Topographic information constitutes a fundamental data set for the Earth sciences. In the geological and geophysical sciences, topography combined with gravitational information provides an important constraint on the structure and rheologic properties of the crust and lithosphere. Detailed topography data can also be used to map offsets associated with faulting and to reveal the effects of tectonic deformation. In the polar regions, elevation data form a crucial but as yet largely unavailable resource for studying ice sheet mass balance and ice flow dynamics. The vast Antarctic ice sheet is the largest fresh water reservoir on Earth and is an important influence on ocean circulation and global climate. However, our knowledge of its stability is so limited that we cannot even specify whether the Antarctic ice sheet is growing or shrinking. It is clear that there is need for high quality global topography data. A summary of potential applications with their resolution requirements is shown.

Contamination of the Arctic reflected in microbial metagenomes from the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauptmann, Aviaja L.; Sicheritz-Pontén, Thomas; Cameron, Karen A.; Bælum, Jacob; Plichta, Damian R.; Dalgaard, Marlene; Stibal, Marek

2017-07-01

Globally emitted contaminants accumulate in the Arctic and are stored in the frozen environments of the cryosphere. Climate change influences the release of these contaminants through elevated melt rates, resulting in increased contamination locally. Our understanding of how biological processes interact with contamination in the Arctic is limited. Through shotgun metagenomic data and binned genomes from metagenomes we show that microbial communities, sampled from multiple surface ice locations on the Greenland ice sheet, have the potential for resistance to and degradation of contaminants. The microbial potential to degrade anthropogenic contaminants, such as toxic and persistent polychlorinated biphenyls, was found to be spatially variable and not limited to regions close to human activities. Binned genomes showed close resemblance to microorganisms isolated from contaminated habitats. These results indicate that, from a microbiological perspective, the Greenland ice sheet cannot be seen as a pristine environment.

Does Antarctic Glaciation Cause an Intensification of the Indo-Asian Monsoon Near the Eocene-Oligocene Transition?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldner, A. P.; Huber, M.; Caballero, R.

2011-12-01

High latitude ice volume changes has been suggested to have profound effects on the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Here we simulate the atmospheric impacts that an Antarctica ice sheet of modern size has on the hydrologic cycle and atmospheric circulation using the community earth system model (CESM1.0) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Eocene simulations. Results show that the placement of an ice sheet in Antarctica in a late Eocene climate simulation cools the planet around ~2 Kelvin and causes a poleward displacement of the ITCZ in both hemispheres. Because the ITCZ is linked to the global monsoonal circulation. The shift results in an intensification of precipitation over prominent monsoon regions like Asia, Africa, and Australia. Aridification occurs in central Asia and western North America in agreement with many of the proxy records for the Eocene-Oligocene transition. The shift in atmospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies are robust in further sensitivity studies where we remove the ice sheet, but keep topography high over Antarctica and under different CO2 levels (560 and 1120 ppmv). We hypothesize that the height of the initial ice growth on Antarctica could be a significant factor in shifting the hydrologic cycle and matching proxy records over important regions like the Indo-Asian Monsoon region during the Eocene-Oligocene transition. These modeling results show that other factors besides declining atmospheric CO2, changes in orbital cycles, and the height of the Tibetan Plateau can have significant impacts on the tropical circulation and the global hydrologic cycle, especially the Indo-Asian Monsoon in past climate periods where significant changes in ice sheet growth occurred.

Using ATM laser altimetry to constrain surface mass balance estimates and supraglacial hydrology of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studinger, M.; Medley, B.; Manizade, S.; Linkswiler, M. A.

2016-12-01

Repeat airborne laser altimetry measurements can provide large-scale field observations to better quantify spatial and temporal variability of surface processes contributing to seasonal elevation change and therefore surface mass balance. As part of NASA's Operation IceBridge the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter measured the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet during spring (March - May) and fall (September - October) of 2015. Comparison of the two surveys reveals a general trend of thinning for outlet glaciers and for the ice sheet in a manner related to elevation and latitude. In contrast, some thickening is observed on the west (but not on the east) side of the ice divide above 2200 m elevation in the southern half, below latitude 69°N.The observed magnitude and spatial patterns of the summer melt signal can be utilized as input into ice sheet models and for validating reanalysis of regional climate models such as RACMO and MAR. We use seasonal anomalies in MERRA-2 climate fields (temperature, precipitation) to understand the observed spatial signal in seasonal change. Aside from surface elevation change, runoff from meltwater pooling in supraglacial lakes and meltwater channels accounts for at least half of the total mass loss. The ability of the ATM laser altimeters to image glacial hydrological features in 3-D and determine the depth of supraglacial lakes could be used for process studies and for quantifying melt processes over large scales. The 1-meter footprint diameter of ATM laser on the surface, together with a high shot density, allows for the production of large-scale, high-resolution, geodetic quality DEMs (50 x 50 cm) suitable for fine-scale glacial hydrology research and as input to hydrological models quantifying runoff.

ICEX: Ice and Climate Experiment. Report of science and applications working group

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The Ice and Climate Experiment (ICEX), a proposed program of coordinated investigations of the ice and snow masses of the Earth (the "cryosphere") is described. These investigations are to be carried out with the help of satellite, aircraft, and surface based observations. Measurements derived from the investigations will be applied to an understanding of the role of the cryosphere in the system that determines the Earth's climate, to a better prediction of the responses of the ice and snow to climatic change, to studies of the basic nature of ice forms and ice dynamics, and to the development of operational techniques for assisting such activities in the polar regions as transportation, exploitation of natural resources, and petroleum exploration and production. A high-inclination satellite system with a set of remote-sensing instruments specially tailored to the task of observing the important features of snow, sea ice, and the ice sheets of Greenland and the Antarctic is to be used to record the near-simultaneous observations of multiple geophysical parameters by complementary sensors.

Groundwater flow modeling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions for the safety assessment of the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository site at Forsmark, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Näslund, Jens-Ove

2014-09-01

The impact of periglacial and glacial climate conditions on groundwater flow in fractured crystalline rock is studied by means of groundwater flow modeling of the Forsmark site, which was recently proposed as a repository site for the disposal of spent high-level nuclear fuel in Sweden. The employed model uses a thermal-hydraulically coupled approach for permafrost modeling and discusses changes in groundwater flow implied by the climate conditions found over northern Europe at different times during the last glacial cycle (Weichselian glaciation). It is concluded that discharge of particles released at repository depth occurs very close to the ice-sheet margin in the absence of permafrost. If permafrost is included, the greater part discharges into taliks in the periglacial area. During a glacial cycle, hydraulic gradients at repository depth reach their maximum values when the ice-sheet margin passes over the site; at this time, also, the interface between fresh and saline waters is distorted the most. The combined effect of advances and retreats during several glaciations has not been studied in the present work; however, the results indicate that hydrochemical conditions at depth in the groundwater flow model are almost restored after a single event of ice-sheet advance and retreat.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present (version 1) - PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Gregoire, Lauren J.; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-07-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the climate change events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 000 years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core experiment over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time-varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, and we make recommendations for prescribing ice meltwater (or not) in the Core experiment. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate more thoroughly the effect of ice meltwater on climate system evolution, and to examine the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will target shorter durations around specific events in order to understand them in more detail and allow for the more computationally expensive models to take part.

Recent Observations of Increased Thinning of the Greenland Ice Sheet Measured by Aircraft GPS and Laser Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krabill, William B.

2004-01-01

The Arctic Ice Mapping group (Project AIM) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Wallops Flight Facility has been conducting systematic topographic surveys of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIs) since 1993, using scanning airborne laser altimeters combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology onboard NASA's P-3 aircraft. Flight lines have covered all major ice drainage basins, with repeating surveys after a 5-year interval during the decade of the 90's. Analysis of this data documented significant thinning in many areas near the ice sheet margins and an overall negative mass balance of the GIS (Science, 2000). In 2001, 2002, and 2003 many of these flight lines were re-surveyed, providing evidence of continued or accelerated thinning in all observed areas around the margin of the GIs. Additionally, however, a highly-anomalous snowfall was observed between 2002 and 2003 in SE Greenland - perhaps an indicator of a shift in the regional climate?

The ICESat-2 Mission: Concept, Pre-Launch Activities, and Opportunities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markus, Thorsten; Neumann, Tom; Csatho, Beata M.

2011-01-01

Ice sheet and sea level changes have been explicitly identified as a priority in the President's Climate Change Science Program, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the 4th Assessment Report of the IPee and other national and international policy documents. Following recommendations from the National Research Council for an ICESat follow-on mission, the ICESat-2 mission is now under development for launch in early 2016. The primary aims of the ICESat-2 mission are to continue measurements of sea-ice thickness change, and ice sheet elevation changes at scales from outlet glaciers to the entire ice sheet as established by ICES at. In contrast to ICES at, ICESat-2 will employ a 6-beam micro-pulse laser photon-counting approach. The current concept uses a high repetition rate (10 kHz; equivalent to 70 cm on the ground) low-power laser in conjunction with single-photon sensitive detectors to measure range using approximately 532nm (green) light. The concept will enable the generation of seasonal maps of ice sheet elevation of Greenland and Antarctica, monthly maps of sea ice thickness of the polar ocean, a dense map of land elevation (2 km track spacing at the equator after two years) enabling the determination of canopy height, as well as ocean heights. While the mission has been optimized for cryospheric science and vast amount of high precision elevation measurements taken over land and over the ocean as well as of the atmosphere will provide scientists with a wealth of opportunities to explore the utility of ICESat-2. Those will range from the retrieval of cloud properties, to river stages, to snow cover, to land use changes and more. The presentation will review the measurement concept and physical principles of ICESat-2, current and planned activities to assess instrument performance and develop geophysical algorithms, as well as potential opportunities outside the main objectives of ICESat-2.

Changes in sea ice cover and ice sheet extent at the Yermak Plateau during the last 160 ka - Reconstructions from biomarker records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, A.; Stein, R.; Fahl, K.; Ji, Z.; Yang, Z.; Wiers, S.; Matthiessen, J.; Forwick, M.; Löwemark, L.; O'Regan, M.; Chen, J.; Snowball, I.

2018-02-01

The Yermak Plateau is located north of Svalbard at the entrance to the Arctic Ocean, i.e. in an area highly sensitive to climate change. A multi proxy approach was carried out on Core PS92/039-2 to study glacial-interglacial environmental changes at the northern Barents Sea margin during the last 160 ka. The main emphasis was on the reconstruction of sea ice cover, based on the sea ice proxy IP25 and the related phytoplankton - sea ice index PIP25. Sea ice was present most of the time but showed significant temporal variability decisively affected by movements of the Svalbard Barents Sea Ice Sheet. For the first time, we prove the occurrence of seasonal sea ice at the eastern Yermak Plateau during glacial intervals, probably steered by a major northward advance of the ice sheet and the formation of a coastal polynya in front of it. Maximum accumulation of terrigenous organic carbon, IP25 and the phytoplankton biomarkers (brassicasterol, dinosterol, HBI III) can be correlated to distinct deglaciation events. More severe, but variable sea ice cover prevailed at the Yermak Plateau during interglacials. The general proximity to the sea ice margin is further indicated by biomarker (GDGT) - based sea surface temperatures below 2.5 °C.

Influence of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its collapse on the wind and precipitation regimes of the Ross Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seles, D.; Kowalewski, D. E.

2015-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is a key analogue for current warming trends yet the extent of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during this interglacial remains unresolved. Inconsistencies persist between offshore records (suggesting the instability of WAIS) and McMurdo Dry Valley (MDV) terrestrial datasets (indicating long-term ice sheet stability). Here we use a high-resolution regional scale climate model (RegCM3_Polar) to reconstruct paleoclimate during MIS 31 (warm orbit, 400 ppm CO2) and assess changes in precipitation and winds (including katabatic) with WAIS present versus WAIS absent. The MIS 31 scenario with WAIS present resulted in minimal changes in wind magnitude compared with current climate conditions. With WAIS absent, the model predicts a decrease in coastal and highland monthly mean average wind velocities. The greatest rates of snowfall remain along the coast but shift towards higher latitudes with the interior continent remaining dry when WAIS is removed. Focusing on the Ross Embayment, this decreased monthly mean wind velocity and shift of winds to the east indicate a greater influence of offshore winds from the Ross Sea, enabling the increase of precipitation southward along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) (i.e. MDV). The apparent decrease of katabatic winds with no WAIS implies that offshore winds may be responsible for bringing the warmer, wetter air into the TAM. The change in wind and precipitation in the Ross Embayment and specifically the MDV highlights the impact of WAIS on Antarctic climate and its subsequent influence on the mass balance of peripheral EAIS domes (i.e. Taylor Dome). Modeling suggests that if WAIS was absent during MIS 31, we would expect (1) greater accumulation at such domes and (2) MDV terrestrial records that reflect a wetter climate, and (3) weaker winds suggesting possibly lower ablation/erosion rates compared to if WAIS was present.

Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Snow and Ice for Global Change Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Richard; Hall, Dorothy K.

2007-01-01

Snow and ice play a significant role in the Earth's water cycle and are sensitive and informative indicators climate change. Significant changes in terrestrial snow and ice water storage are forecast, and while evidence of large-scale changes is emerging, in situ measurements alone are insufficient to help us understand and explain these changes. Imaging remote sensing systems are capable of successfully observing snow and ice in the cryosphere. This chapter examines how those remote sensing sensors, that now have more than 35 years of observation records, are capable of providing information about snow cover, snow water equivalent, snow melt, ice sheet temperature and ice sheet albedo. While significant progress has been made, especially in the last five years, a better understanding is required of the records of satellite observations of these cryospheric variables.

Volcano-ice age link discounted

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

1996-05-10

Speculation that huge volcanic eruptions may have caused an immediate `volcanic winter` that devastated early humans and accelerated a slide into the Ice Age. However, further information from the Greenland ice sheet about the Toba errumption on the island of Sumatra 70,000 years ago, seems to indicate that such volcanic actions wasn`t a major climatic catalyst. This article discusses the evidence and further possibilities.

Multi-channel Ice Penetrating Radar Traverse for Estimates of Firn Density in the Percolation Zone, Western Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, T.; Osterberg, E. C.; Lewis, G.; Overly, T. B.; Hawley, R. L.; Bradford, J.; Marshall, H. P.

2016-12-01

To better predict the response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to future warming, leading edge Regional Climate Models (RCM) must be calibrated with in situ measurements of recent accumulation and melt. Mass balance estimates averaged across the entire Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) vary between models by more than 30 percent, and regional comparisons of mass balance reconstructions in Greenland vary by 100 percent or more. Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) is a multi-year and multi-disciplinary 1700 km science traverse from Raven/Dye2 in SW Greenland, to Summit Station. Multi-offset radar measurements can provide high accuracy electromagnetic (EM) velocity estimates of the firn to within (+-) 0.002 to 0.003 m/ns. EM velocity, in turn, can be used to estimate bulk firn density. Using a mixing equation such as the CRIM Equation we use the measured EM velocity, along with the known EM velocity in air and ice, to estimate bulk density. During spring 2016, we used multi-channel 500MHz radar in a multi-offset configuration to survey more than 800 km from Raven towards summit. Preliminary radar-derived snow density estimates agree with density estimates from a firn core measurement ( 50 kg/m3), despite the lateral heterogeneity of the firn across the length of the antenna array (12 m).

Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

PubMed

Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

2010-05-28

Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

Fire beneath the ice

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Monastersky, R.

1993-02-13

A volcano discovered six years ago by researchers Blankenship and Bell under Antarctica poses questions about a potential climatic catastrophe. The researchers claim that the volcano is still active, erupting occasionally and growing. A circular depression on the surface of the ice sheet has ice flowing into it and is used to provide a portrait of the heat source. The volcano is on a critical transition zone within West Antarctica with fast flowing ice streams directly downhill. Work by Blankenship shows that a soft layer of water-logged sediments called till provide the lubricating layer on the underside of the icemore » streams. Volcanos may provide the source of this till. The ice streams buffer the thick interior ice from the ocean and no one know what will happen if the ice streams continue to shorten. These researchers believe their results indicate that the stability of West Antarctica ultimately depends less on the current climate than on the location of heat and sediments under the ice and the legacy of past climatic changes.« less

Vigorous lateral export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf.

PubMed

Garabato, Alberto C Naveira; Forryan, Alexander; Dutrieux, Pierre; Brannigan, Liam; Biddle, Louise C; Heywood, Karen J; Jenkins, Adrian; Firing, Yvonne L; Kimura, Satoshi

2017-02-09

The instability and accelerated melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are among the foremost elements of contemporary global climate change. The increased freshwater output from Antarctica is important in determining sea level rise, the fate of Antarctic sea ice and its effect on the Earth's albedo, ongoing changes in global deep-ocean ventilation, and the evolution of Southern Ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling. A key uncertainty in assessing and predicting the impacts of Antarctic Ice Sheet melting concerns the vertical distribution of the exported meltwater. This is usually represented by climate-scale models as a near-surface freshwater input to the ocean, yet measurements around Antarctica reveal the meltwater to be concentrated at deeper levels. Here we use observations of the turbulent properties of the meltwater outflows from beneath a rapidly melting Antarctic ice shelf to identify the mechanism responsible for the depth of the meltwater. We show that the initial ascent of the meltwater outflow from the ice shelf cavity triggers a centrifugal overturning instability that grows by extracting kinetic energy from the lateral shear of the background oceanic flow. The instability promotes vigorous lateral export, rapid dilution by turbulent mixing, and finally settling of meltwater at depth. We use an idealized ocean circulation model to show that this mechanism is relevant to a broad spectrum of Antarctic ice shelves. Our findings demonstrate that the mechanism producing meltwater at depth is a dynamically robust feature of Antarctic melting that should be incorporated into climate-scale models.

Surface melt effects on Cryosat-2 elevation retrievals in the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, T.; McMillan, M.; Shepherd, A.; Leeson, A.; Cornford, S. L.; Hogg, A.; Gilbert, L.; Muir, A. S.; Briggs, K.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades, there has been an acceleration in the rate of mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet. This acceleration is, in part, attributed to an increasingly negative surface mass balance (SMB), linked to increasing melt water runoff rates due to enhanced surface melting. Understanding the past, present and future evolution in surface melting is central to ongoing monitoring of ice sheet mass balance and, in turn, to building realistic future projections. Currently, regional climate models are commonly used for this purpose, because direct in-situ observations are spatially and temporally sparse due to the logistics and resources required to collect such data. In particular, modelled SMB is used to estimate the extent and magnitude of surface melting, which influences (1) many geodetic mass balance estimates, and (2) snowpack microwave scattering properties. The latter is poorly understood and introduces uncertainty into radar altimeter estimates of ice sheet evolution. Here, we investigate the changes in CryoSat-2 waveforms and elevation measurements caused by the onset of surface melt in the summer months over the ablation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Specifically, we use CryoSat-2 SARIn mode data acquired between 2011 and 2016, to characterise the effect of high variability in surface melt during this period, and to assess the associated impact on estimates of ice mass balance.

Cosmogenic nuclide age estimate for Laurentide Ice Sheet recession from the terminal moraine, New Jersey, USA, and constraints on latest Pleistocene ice sheet history

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corbett, Lee B.; Bierman, Paul R.; Stone, Byron D.; Caffee, Marc W.; Larsen, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

The time at which the Laurentide Ice Sheet reached its maximum extent and subsequently retreated from its terminal moraine in New Jersey has been constrained by bracketing radiocarbon ages on preglacial and postglacial sediments. Here, we present measurements of in situ produced 10Be and 26Al in 16 quartz-bearing samples collected from bedrock outcrops and glacial erratics just north of the terminal moraine in north-central New Jersey; as such, our ages represent a minimum limit on the timing of ice recession from the moraine. The data set includes field and laboratory replicates, as well as replication of the entire data set five years after initial measurement. We find that recession of the Laurentide Ice Sheet from the terminal moraine in New Jersey began before 25.2±2.1 ka (10Be, n=16, average, 1 standard deviation). This cosmogenic nuclide exposure age is consistent with existing limiting radiocarbon ages in the study area and cosmogenic nuclide exposure ages from the terminal moraine on Martha’s Vineyard ~300 km to the northeast. The age we propose for Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat from the New Jersey terminal position is broadly consistent with regional and global climate records of the last glacial maximum termination and records of fluvial incision.

Ice2sea - the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, D. G.; Ice2sea Consortium

2009-04-01

The melting of continental ice (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets) is a substantial source of current sea-level rise, and one that is accelerating more rapidly than was predicted even a few years ago. Indeed, the most recent report from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted that the uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise is dominated by uncertainty concerning continental ice, and that understanding of the key processes that will lead to loss of continental ice must be improved before reliable projections of sea-level rise can be produced. Such projections are urgently required for effective sea-defence management and coastal adaptation planning. Ice2sea is a consortium of European institutes and international partners seeking European funding to support an integrated scientific programme to improve understanding concerning the future glacial contribution to sea-level rise. This includes improving understanding of the processes that control, past, current and future sea-level rise, and generation of improved estimates of the contribution of glacial components to sea-level rise over the next 200 years. The programme will include targeted studies of key processes in mountain glacier systems and ice caps (e.g. Svalbard), and in ice sheets in both polar regions (Greenland and Antarctica) to improve understanding of how these systems will respond to future climate change. It will include fieldwork and remote sensing studies, and develop a suite of new, cross-validated glacier and ice-sheet model. Ice2sea will deliver these results in forms accessible to scientists, policy-makers and the general public, which will include clear presentations of the sources of uncertainty. Our aim is both, to provide improved projections of the glacial contribution to sea-level rise, and to leave a legacy of improved tools and techniques that will form the basis of ongoing refinements in sea-level projection. Ice2sea will provide exciting opportunities for many early-career glaciologists and ice-modellers in a variety of host institutes.

New constraints on the deglaciation chronology of the southeastern margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Larsen, N. K.; Kjaer, K. H.; Bjork, A. A.; Kjeldsen, K. K.; Funder, S.; Kelly, M. A.; Howley, J. A.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2015-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is responding rapidly to climate change. Marine terminating outlet glaciers that drain the GrIS have responded especially sensitively to present-day climate change by accelerating, thinning and retreating. In southeastern Greenland several outlet glaciers are undergoing rapid changes in mass balance and ice dynamics. To improve our understanding of the future, long-term response of these marine-terminating outlet glaciers to climate change, we focus on the response of three outlet glaciers to climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum. The timing and rates of late-glacial and early Holocene deglaciation of the southeastern sector of the GrIS are relatively unconstrained due to the inaccessibility of the region. Using a helicopter and a sailboat, we collected samples for 10Be surface exposure dating from three fjords in southeastern Greenland: Skjoldungen (63.4N), Uvtorsiutit (62.7N), and Lindenow (60.6N). These fjords drain marine terminating glaciers of the GrIS. Here we present 18 new 10Be ages from ~50 km long transects along these fjords that mark the timing of deglaciation from the outer coast inland to the present-day GrIS margin. Together with previously constrained deglaciation chronologies from Bernstorffs, Sermilik, and Kangerdlussuaq fjords in southeastern Greenland, these new chronologies offer insight into the late-glacial and early Holocene dynamics of the southeastern GrIS outlet glaciers. We compare the timing and rate of deglaciation in southeastern Greenland to climate records from the region to examine the mechanisms that drove deglaciation during late-glacial and early Holocene time. These new 10Be ages provide a longer-term perspective of marine terminating outlet glacier fluctuations in southeastern Greenland and can be used to model the ice sheet's response to late-glacial and early Holocene climate changes.

Towards multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records from coastal west Greenland ice caps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Sarah B.; Osman, Matthew B.; Trusel, Luke D.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Smith, Ben E.; Evans, Matthew J.; Frey, Karen E.; Arienzo, Monica; Chellman, Nathan

2017-04-01

The Arctic region, and Greenland in particular, is undergoing dramatic change as characterized by atmospheric warming, decreasing sea ice, shifting ocean circulation patterns, and rapid ice sheet mass loss, but longer records are needed to put these changes into context. Ice core records from the Greenland ice sheet have yielded invaluable insight into past climate change both regionally and globally, and provided important constraints on past surface mass balance more directly, but these ice cores are most often from the interior ice sheet accumulation zone, at high altitude and hundreds of kilometers from the coast. Coastal ice caps, situated around the margins of Greenland, have the potential to provide novel high-resolution records of local and regional maritime climate and sea surface conditions, as well as contemporaneous glaciological changes (such as accumulation and surface melt history). But obtaining these records is extremely challenging. Most of these ice caps are unexplored, and thus their thickness, age, stratigraphy, and utility as sites of new and unique paleoclimate records is largely unknown. Access is severely limited due to their high altitude, steep relief, small surface area, and inclement weather. Furthermore, their relatively low elevation and marine moderated climate can contribute to significant surface melting and degradation of the ice stratigraphy. We recently targeted areas near the Disko Bay region of central west Greenland where maritime ice caps are prevalent but unsampled, as potential sites for new multi-decadal to multi-millennial ice core records. In 2014 & 2015 we identified two promising ice caps, one on Disko Island (1250 m. asl) and one on Nuussuaq Peninsula (1980 m. asl) based on airborne and ground-based geophysical observations and physical and glaciochemical stratigraphy from shallow firn cores. In spring 2015 we collected ice cores at both sites using the Badger-Eclipse electromechanical drill, transported by a medley of small fixed wing and helicopter aircraft, and working out of small tent camps. On Disko Island, despite high accumulation rates and ice thickness of 250 meters, drilling was halted twice due to the encounter of liquid water at depths ranging from 18-20 meters, limiting the depth of the final core to 21 m, providing a multi-decadal record (1980-2015.) On Nuussuaq Peninsula, we collected a 138 m ice core, almost to bedrock, representing a 2500 year record. The ice cores were subsequently analyzed using a continuous flow analysis system (CFA). Age-depth profiles and accumulation histories were determined by combining annual layer counting and an ice flow thinning model, both constrained by glaciochemical tie points to other well-dated Greenland ice core records (e.g. volcanic horizons and continuous heavy metal records). Here we will briefly provide an overview of the project and the new sites, and the novel dating methodology, and describe the latest stratigraphic, isotopic and glaciochemical results. We will also provide a particular focus on new regional climatological insight gained from our records during three climatically sensitive time periods: the late 20th & early 21st centuries; the Little Ice Age; and the Medieval Climate Anomaly.

Validation of the MODIS "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Koenig, L. S.; DiGirolamo, N. E.; Comiso, J.; Shuman, C. A.

2011-01-01

Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented from 1981 to present. We extend and refine this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. To permit changes to be observed over time, we are developing a well-characterized monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites. We use the MODIS ice-surface temperature (IST) algorithm. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between the Terra and Aqua IST maps; 2) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 3) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 4) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. In this work, we focus on 1) and 2) above. Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented from 1981 to present. We extend and refine this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. To permit changes to be observed over time, we are developing a well-characterized monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites. We use the MODIS ice-surface temperature (IST) algorithm. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between the Terra and Aqua IST maps; 2) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 3) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 4) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. In this work, we focus on 1) and 2) above. First we provide comparisons between Terra and Aqua swath-based ISTs at approximately 14:00 Local Solar Time, reprojected to 12.5 km polar stereographic cells. Results show good correspondence when Terra and Aqua data were acquired within 2 hrs of each other. For example, for a cell centered over Summit Camp (72.58 N, 38.5 W), the average agreement between Terra and Aqua ISTs is 0.74 K (February 2003), 0.47 K (April 2003), 0.7 K (August 2003) and 0.96 K (October 2003) with the Terra ISTs being generally lower than the Aqua ISTs. More precise comparisons will be calculated using pixel data at the swath level, and correspondence between Terra and Aqua IST is expected to be closer. (Because of cloud cover and other considerations, only a few common cloud-free swaths are typically available for each month for comparison.) Additionally, previous work comparing land-surface temperatures (LSTs) from the standard MODIS LST product and in-situ surface-temperature data at Summit Camp on the Greenland Ice Sheet show that Terra MODIS LSTs are about 3 K lower than in-situ temperatures at Summit Camp, during the winter of 2008-09. This work will be repeated using both Terra and Aqua IST pixel data (in place of LST data). In conclusion, we demonstrate that the uncertainties in the CDR will be well characterized as we work through the various facets of its validation.

Arctic Circle Traverse 2010 (ACT-10): South East Greenland snow accumulation variability from firn coring and ice sounding radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forster, R. R.; Miege, C.; Box, J. E.; McConnell, J.; Spikes, V. B.; Burgess, E. W.

2010-12-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet plays an important role in Earth’s climate system evolution. The snow accumulation rate is the largest single mass budget term. With only 14% of the ice sheet area, Southeast Greenland contains the highest accumulation rates, accounting for one third of the total snow accumulation and annual variability. The high accumulation rates have made the region less desirable for long climate record ice cores and therefore, contain relatively very few in situ measurements to constrain the ice sheet mass budget. We present annual snow accumulation rates from the Arctic Circle Traverse 2010 (ACT-10). During April and May 2010 we acquired three 50 m firn cores connected by surface-based 400 MHz ground penetrating radar (GPR) in Southeast Greenland. The traverse repeated and extended the original Arctic Circle Traverse in 2004 (Spikes et al., 2004). Dating is achieved using geochemical analysis of the cores to identify isochronal layers detected by the GPR yielding annual accumulation estimates along the traverse between the core sites. The 300 km ACT-10 GPR snowmobile traverse extended the ACT-04 path 80 km to the lowest elevation core site at 1776 m. Meanwhile, airborne radars, operating as part of NASA’s Operation IceBridge also acquired data over the full length of the ACT-10 path, simultaneously with a portion of the traverse and within days for the remaining segments. The IceBridge and ACT-10 data are to be combined in a calibration effort such that snow accumulation rates may be mapped elsewhere in Greenland and even in Antarctica.

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kallen, E.; Crafoord, C.; Ghil, M.

1979-01-01

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Reconstructions of the Weichselian ice sheet, a comparative study of a thermo-mechanical approach to GIA driven models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Peter; Lund, Björn; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Fastook, James

2014-05-01

Observations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) have been used both to study the mechanical properties of the Earth and to invert for Northern Hemisphere palaeo-ice-sheets. This is typically done by solving the sea-level equation using simplified scaling laws to control ice-sheet thickness. However, past ice-sheets can also be reconstructed based on thermo-mechanical modelling driven by palaeo-climate data, invoking simple analytical models to account for the Earth's response. Commonly, both approaches use dated geological markers to constrain the ice-sheet margin location. Irrespective of the approach, the resulting ice-sheet reconstruction depends on the earth response, although the interdependence between the ice model and the earth model differs and therefore the two types of reconstructions could provide complementary information on Earth properties. We compare a thermo-mechanical reconstruction of the Weichselian ice-sheet using the UMISM model (Näslund, 2010) to two GIA driven reconstructions, ANU (Lambeck et al., 2010) and ICE-5G (Peltier & Fairbanks, 2006), commonly used in GIA modelling. We evaluate the three reconstructions both in terms of ice-sheet configurations and predicted Fennoscandian surface deformation ICE-5G comprise the largest reconstructed ice-sheet whereas ANU and UMISM are more similar in volume and areal extent. Significant differences still exists between ANU and UMISM, especially during the final deglaciation phase. Prior to the final retreat of the ice-sheet, ICE-5G is displays a massive and more or less constant ice-sheet configuration, while both ANU and UMISM fluctuates with at times almost ice-free conditions, such as during MIS3. This results in ICE-5G being close to isostatic equilibrium at LGM, whereas ANU and UMISM are not. Hence, the pre-LGM evolution of the Weichselian ice-sheet needs to be considered in GIA studies. For example, perturbing the ANU or UMISM reconstructions we find that changes more recent than 36 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift velocities by more than 0.1 mm/yr, while changes more recent than 55 kyr BP may change the predicted uplift 10 kyr ago by more than 5 m. Despite their differences we find that all three reconstructions can equally well fit observations of the present day uplift in Fennoscandia, as well as the observed sea-level curve along the Ångerman river, Sweden, albeit with different optimal earth models. However, only for ANU can a single optimal earth model be determined as a bifurcation in the optimal viscosity arises from the generally faster present day rebound rates in ICE-5G and UMISM, resulting in a range of well-fitting earth models for the latter reconstructions. Studying models with a reasonable fit to observed present day uplift velocities we find general trends of over- and under-prediction, indicating that all three ice-sheet reconstructions need improvement. In general, all three reconstructions tend to over-predict the uplift rates in southwestern Fennoscandia, whereas over Finland ICE-5G generally over-predicts and ANU generally under-predicts the uplift rates. UMISM tend to under-predict the velocities over central to northern Sweden and similar trends can also be seen in ANU and ICE-5G.

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay; Busalacchi, Antonioa J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Long-term evolution of a small ice cap in Greenland: a dynamic perspective from numerical flow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieli, Andreas; Lane, Timothy; Adamson, Kathryn

2017-04-01

Small ice caps at the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet are often close to the limit of existence and are therefore expected to respond more sensitively to climate change than the land-margin of the neighboring ice sheet. However, their past evolution and dynamic behavior is poorly understood and their use as climate indicators therefore remains so far limited. We here aim to provide a long-term dynamic reconstruction of Lyngmarksbraeen, a small (32km2) ice cap on Disko Island in West Greenland, with a particular focus on the little ice age (LIA, since 1200AD). We use a 2-dim. time-dependent numerical flow model (SIA) and a PDD-mass balance model in combination with historical observations, geomorphological mapping and exposure dating to simulate its long-term evolution and dynamic behaviour. We specifically focus on retreat since the LIA, which is well constrained by geomorphological evidence and historical maps and length records of several small outlet glaciers and data from local and regional climate stations (Qeqertarssuaq and Ilulisat). We also explore aspects related to flow dynamics and find that the dynamic state of this ice cap is, at any time, far from being balanced and is highly sensitive to the surface elevation mass balance feedback and results in an asynchronous response of the different outlets and hysteresis-type behaviour. The modelling is able to reproduce the observed LIA-extent and the almost continuous retreat over the last hundred years well. It further indicates that the ice cap was already dynamically inert since the 1960s. Today, the ice cap has lost almost its entire accumulation area and even without any further warming in the future, the ice cap is expected to vanish within a couple of decades.

Formation of Ice-Rich Lobate Debris Aprons Through Regional Icesheet Collapse and Debris-Cover Armoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.

2011-03-01

We use a flowband model to assess development of lobate debris apron sublimation lag thickness and lateral extent beneath scarps. We obtain estimates of the climate in place as the LDAs were forming during collapse of a larger, regional ice sheet.

Identification and correlation of crypto-tephra horizons within Marine Isotope Stages 5e to 4 of the NGRIP ice-core - culmination of the SMART research project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meara, R. H.; Davies, S. M.; Abbott, P. M.; Pearce, N. J.; Austin, W. E.; Bigler, M.; Steffensen, J. P.; Svensson, A.

2012-12-01

The NERC-funded SMART (Synchronising MARine and ice-core records using Tephrochronology) project has focused on dating, correlating and synchronising palaeo climatic events during the last interglacial-glacial transition by developing a regional tephrochronological framework for the North Atlantic region. The NGRIP ice-core within the Greenland ice sheet is the focus of this work and here we report on the tephra horizons identified to date. A suite of c. 1,000 ice samples (c. 173 m) were subsampled, chosen for their relation to a) known tephra horizons in marine and terrestrial proxy records, b) prominent sulphate peaks and c) rapid climate transitions. To date, 10 new tephra horizons have been identified, ranging in age from 71,430 - 121,865 years b2k which add to the NGRIP tephras identified previously by Abbott et al. Individual tephra shards within each horizon have been geochemically characterised using both EMPA and LA-ICP-MS techniques. The tephras are typically basaltic in composition and show predominantly Icelandic compositions with sources identified as the Grimsvötn, Hekla-Katla and Veidivötn volcanic systems. Together with the work on the GRIP ice-core, a comprehensive suite of tephras now provides a detailed tephrochronological framework for the Greenland ice-sheet (Abbott et al. 2012). At present, four of the identified tephra horizons are candidates for correlation with known crypto-tephra horizons from marine records. These potential correlations present a robust means for dating and testing phase relationships and climate-forcing mechanisms associated with dramatic climate transitions during MIS stages 5e - 4.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H.; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J.; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E.

2017-12-01

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface.

PubMed

Smith, Laurence C; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T; Chu, Vena W; Rennermalm, Åsa K; Ryan, Jonathan C; Cooper, Matthew G; Gleason, Colin J; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L; Cullather, Richard I; Zhao, Bin; Willis, Michael J; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E; Jenner, Brittany A; Behar, Alberto E

2017-12-12

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km 2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland's midelevation (1,207-1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface

PubMed Central

Smith, Laurence C.; Yang, Kang; Pitcher, Lincoln H; Overstreet, Brandon T.; Chu, Vena W.; Rennermalm, Åsa K.; Ryan, Jonathan C.; Cooper, Matthew G.; Gleason, Colin J.; Tedesco, Marco; Jeyaratnam, Jeyavinoth; van As, Dirk; van den Broeke, Michiel R.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; Noël, Brice; Langen, Peter L.; Cullather, Richard I.; Zhao, Bin; Hubbard, Alun; Box, Jason E.; Jenner, Brittany A.; Behar, Alberto E.

2017-01-01

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.1-km2 moulin-terminating internally drained catchment (IDC) on Greenland’s midelevation (1,207–1,381 m above sea level) ablation zone is compared with melt and runoff simulations from HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, RACMO2.3, MERRA-2, and SEB climate/SMB models. Current models cannot reproduce peak discharges or timing of runoff entering moulins but are improved using synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) theory. Retroactive SUH applications to two older field studies reproduce their findings, signifying that remotely sensed IDC area, shape, and supraglacial river length are useful for predicting delays in peak runoff delivery to moulins. Applying SUH to HIRHAM5, MAR3.6, and RACMO2.3 gridded melt products for 799 surrounding IDCs suggests their terminal moulins receive lower peak discharges, less diurnal variability, and asynchronous runoff timing relative to climate/SMB model output alone. Conversely, large IDCs produce high moulin discharges, even at high elevations where melt rates are low. During this particular field experiment, models overestimated runoff by +21 to +58%, linked to overestimated surface ablation and possible meltwater retention in bare, porous, low-density ice. Direct measurements of ice surface runoff will improve climate/SMB models, and incorporating remotely sensed IDCs will aid coupling of SMB with ice dynamics and subglacial systems. PMID:29208716

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

2016-12-01

The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment focuses on regional changes in SMB and SMB components, the identification of changes and temporal variability in the SMB equilibrium line, and the relation between SMB and other climate variables related to general circulation.

Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Held, Isaac M.

1988-08-01

A linearized, steady state, primitive equation model is used to simulate the climatological zonal asymmetries (stationary eddies) in the wind and temperature fields of the 18 000 YBP climate during winter. We compare these results with the eddies simulated in the ice age experiments of Broccoli and Manabe, who used CLIMAP boundary conditions and reduced atmospheric CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. The agreement between the models is good, indicating that the linear model can be used to evaluate the relative influences of orography, diabatic heating, and transient eddy heat and momentum transports in generating stationary waves. We find that orographic forcing dominates in the ice age climate. The mechanical influence of the continental ice sheets on the atmosphere is responsible for most of the changes between the present day and ice age stationary eddies. This concept of the ice age climate is complicated by the sensitivity of the stationary eddies to the large increase in the magnitude of the zonal mean meridional temperature gradient simulated in the ice age GCM.

Lithology and chronology of ice-sheet fluctuations (magnetic susceptibility of cores from the western Ross Sea)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, Anne E.

1993-01-01

The goals of the marine geology part of WAIS include reconstructing the chronology and areal extent of ice-sheet fluctuations and understanding the climatic and oceanographic influences on ice-sheet history. As an initial step toward attaining these goals, down-core volume magnetic susceptibility (MS) logs of piston cores from three N-S transects in the western Ross Sea are compared. The core transects are within separate petrographic provinces based on analyses of till composition. The provinces are thought to reflect the previous locations of ice streams on the shelf during the last glaciation. Magnetic susceptibility is a function of magnetic mineral composition, sediment texture, and sediment density. It is applied in the western Ross Sea for two purposes: (1) to determine whether MS data differentiates the three transects (i.e., flow lines), and thus can be used to make paleodrainage reconstructions of the late Wisconsinan ice sheet; and (2) to determine whether the MS data can aid in distinguishing basal till diamictons from diamictons of glacial-marine origin and thus, aid paleoenvironmental interpretations. A comparison of the combined data of cores in each transect is presented.

Land, Ocean and Ice sheet surface elevation retrieval from CALIPSO lidar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, X.; Hu, Y.

2013-12-01

Since launching in April 2006 the main objective of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) mission has been studying the climate impact of clouds and aerosols in the atmosphere. However, CALIPSO also collects information about other components of the Earth's ecosystem, such as lands, oceans and polar ice sheets. The objective of this study is to propose a Super-Resolution Altimetry (SRA) technique to provide high resolution of land, ocean and polar ice sheet surface elevation from CALIPSO single shot lidar measurements (70 m spot size). The land surface results by the new technique agree with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Elevation Database (NED) high-resolution elevation maps, and the ice sheet surface results in the region of Greenland and Antarctic compare very well with the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry measurements. The comparisons suggest that the obtained CALIPSO surface elevation information by the new technique is accurate to within 1 m. The effects of error sources on the retrieved surface elevation are discussed. Based on the new technique, the preliminary data products of along-track topography retrieved from the CALIPSO lidar measurements is available to the altimetry community for evaluation.

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

How Synchronous was the Transition into the Younger Dryas across the Euro-Atlantic Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, F.; Muschitiello, F.; Heikkilä, M. P.; Väliranta, M.; Tarasov, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Johansson, A. V.; Naslund, J. O.; Wohlfarth, B.

2015-12-01

Observations of a currently weakening subpolar gyre south of Greenland has again increased scientific attention regarding the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) for the regional to global climate. The rapid climate shift of the Younger Dryas (YD, GS-1) cold reversal during the last deglaciation is attributed to an abrupt slowdown or collapse of the AMOC due to a strong meltwater pulse and/or the rapid disintegration of the Laurentide Ice sheet. Although such a dramatic event is not expected for the future, the spatiotemporal climatic response to such a slowdown is an interesting test case. Two recently well dated proxy records around the North Sea region suggest a non-synchronous early cooling/onset of the YD compared to Greenland (NGRIP). Presentation #61803 discusses the hypothesis of a local cooling as a response to increased ice berg calving and/or meltwater from Fenno-Scandinavian Ice Sheet (FIS) during the late Alleröd warm phase (GI-1a). Here we study CCSM3 model output from the quasi-transient atmosphere-ocean simulation (TraCE) where no strong contribution from FIS is considered from the late Alleröd into the YD. We evaluate to which extent the spatiotemporal temperature response to the AMOC slowdown of the simulation is synchronous over the Euro-Atlantic region and how atmospheric teleconnections reorganize during the rapid shift into the YD. In addition, we run time-slice experiments at high spatial resolution of around 100 km with the Community Earth System Model CESM1.0.5 for the late Alleröd and YD to compare spatial climatic differences for both periods taking into account the regional influence from continental ice sheets in more detail.

Temporal variability of the Antarctic Ice sheet observed from space-based geodesy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Memin, A.; King, M. A.; Boy, J. P.; Remy, F.

2017-12-01

Quantifying the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) mass balance still remains challenging as several processes compete to differing degrees at the basin scale with regional variations, leading to multiple mass redistribution patterns. For instance, analysis of linear trends in surface-height variations from 1992-2003 and 2002-2006 shows that the AIS is subject to decimetric scale variability over periods of a few years. Every year, snowfalls in Antarctica represent the equivalent of 6 mm of the mean sea level. Therefore, any fluctuation in precipitation can lead to changes in sea level. Besides, over the last decade, several major glaciers have been thinning at an accelerating rate. Understanding the processes that interact on the ice sheet is therefore important to precisely determine the response of the ice sheet to a rapid changing climate and estimate its contribution to sea level changes. We estimate seasonal and interannual changes of the AIS between January 2003 and October 2010 and to the end of 2016 from a combined analysis of surface-elevation and surface-mass changes derived from Envisat data and GRACE solutions, and from GRACE solutions only, respectively. While we obtain a good correlation for the interannual signal between the two techniques, important differences (in amplitude, phase, and spatial pattern) are obtained for the seasonal signal. We investigate these discrepancies by comparing the crustal motion observed by GPS and those predicted using monthly surface mass balance derived from the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza; Gregoire, Lauren; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier; Valdes, Paul; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-04-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will concentrate on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part. Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 9045-9102, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9045-2015, 2015.

Iceberg discharges of the last glacial period driven by oceanic circulation changes

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Solas, Jorge; Robinson, Alexander; Montoya, Marisa; Ritz, Catherine

2013-01-01

Proxy data reveal the existence of episodes of increased deposition of ice-rafted detritus in the North Atlantic Ocean during the last glacial period interpreted as massive iceberg discharges from the Laurentide Ice Sheet. Although these have long been attributed to self-sustained ice sheet oscillations, growing evidence of the crucial role that the ocean plays both for past and future behavior of the cryosphere suggests a climatic control of these ice surges. Here, we present simulations of the last glacial period carried out with a hybrid ice sheet–ice shelf model forced by an oceanic warming index derived from proxy data that accounts for the impact of past ocean circulation changes on ocean temperatures. The model generates a time series of iceberg discharge that closely agrees with ice-rafted debris records over the past 80 ka, indicating that oceanic circulation variations were responsible for the enigmatic ice purges of the last ice age. PMID:24062437

The 8.2 ka cooling event caused by Laurentide ice saddle collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matero, I. S. O.; Gregoire, L. J.; Ivanovic, R. F.; Tindall, J. C.; Haywood, A. M.

2017-09-01

The 8.2 ka event was a period of abrupt cooling of 1-3 °C across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, which lasted for about 160 yr. The original hypothesis for the cause of this event has been the outburst of the proglacial Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. These drained into the Labrador Sea in ∼0.5-5 yr and slowed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, thus cooling the North Atlantic region. However, climate models have not been able to reproduce the duration and magnitude of the cooling with this forcing without including additional centennial-length freshwater forcings, such as rerouting of continental runoff and ice sheet melt in combination with the lake release. Here, we show that instead of being caused by the lake outburst, the event could have been caused by accelerated melt from the collapsing ice saddle that linked domes over Hudson Bay in North America. We forced a General Circulation Model with time varying meltwater pulses (100-300 yr) that match observed sea level change, designed to represent the Hudson Bay ice saddle collapse. A 100 yr long pulse with a peak of 0.6 Sv produces a cooling in central Greenland that matches the 160 yr duration and 3 °C amplitude of the event recorded in ice cores. The simulation also reproduces the cooling pattern, amplitude and duration recorded in European Lake and North Atlantic sediment records. Such abrupt acceleration in ice melt would have been caused by surface melt feedbacks and marine ice sheet instability. These new realistic forcing scenarios provide a means to reconcile longstanding mismatches between proxy data and models, allowing for a better understanding of both the sensitivity of the climate models and processes and feedbacks in motion during the disintegration of continental ice sheets.

Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet

PubMed Central

Soulet, Guillaume; Ménot, Guillemette; Bayon, Germain; Rostek, Frauke; Ponzevera, Emmanuel; Toucanne, Samuel; Lericolais, Gilles; Bard, Edouard

2013-01-01

Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth’s climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate–lake–FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas. PMID:23569264

Evidence of local and regional freshening of Northeast Greenland coastal waters.

PubMed

Sejr, Mikael K; Stedmon, Colin A; Bendtsen, Jørgen; Abermann, Jakob; Juul-Pedersen, Thomas; Mortensen, John; Rysgaard, Søren

2017-10-13

The supply of freshwater to fjord systems in Greenland is increasing as a result of climate change-induced acceleration in ice sheet melt. However, insight into the marine implications of the melt water is impaired by lack of observations demonstrating the fate of freshwater along the Greenland coast and providing evaluation basis for ocean models. Here we present 13 years of summer measurements along a 120 km transect in Young Sound, Northeast Greenland and show that sub-surface coastal waters are decreasing in salinity with an average rate of 0.12 ± 0.05 per year. This is the first observational evidence of a significant freshening on decadal scale of the waters surrounding the ice sheet and comes from a region where ice sheet melt has been less significant. It implies that ice sheet dynamics in Northeast Greenland could be of key importance as freshwater is retained in southward flowing coastal currents thus reducing density of water masses influencing major deep water formation areas in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean. Ultimately, the observed freshening could have implications for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

Ocean-Ice Sheet Interactions in the Norwegian Sea and Teleconnections to Low Latitude Hydrology and Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendryen, J.; Hannisdal, B.; Haaga, K. A.; Haflidason, H.; Castro, D. D.; Grasmo, K. J.; Sejrup, H. P.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Kelly, M. J.; Lu, Y.

2016-12-01

Abrupt millennial scale climatic events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a defining feature of the Quaternary climate system dynamics in the North Atlantic and beyond. We present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of ocean-ice sheet interactions in the Norwegian Sea spanning the interval between 50 and 150 ka BP. A comparison with low latitude records indicates a very close connection between the high northern latitude ocean-ice sheet interactions and large scale changes in low latitude atmospheric circulation and hydrology even on sub-millennial scales. The records are placed on a common precise radiometric chronology based on correlations to U/Th dated speleothem records from China and the Alps. This enables a comparison of the records to orbital and other climatically important parameters such as U/Th dated sea-level data from corals and speleothems. We explore the drive-response relationships in these coupled systems with the information transfer (IT) and the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analytical techniques. These methods employ conceptually different approaches to detect the relative strength and directionality of potentially chaotic and nonlinearly coupled systems. IT is a non-parametric measure of information transfer between data records based on transfer entropy, while CCM relies on delay reconstructions using Takens' theorem. This approach enables us to address how the climate system processes interact and how this interaction is affected by external forcing from for example greenhouse gases and orbital variability.

A Newly Updated Database of Elevation-changes of the Greenand Ice Sheet to Study Surface Processes and Ice Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenk, A. F.; Csatho, B. M.; van den Broeke, M.; Kuipers Munneke, P.

2015-12-01

This paper reports about important upgrades of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface elevation and elevation-change database obtained with our Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) software suite. We have developed SERAC to derive information from laser altimetry data, particularly time series of elevation changes and their partitioning into changes caused by ice dynamics. This allows direct investigation of ice dynamic processes that is much needed for improving the predictive power of ice sheet models. SERAC is different from most other change detection methods. It is based on detecting changes of surface patches, about 1 km by 1 km in size, rather than deriving elevation changes from individual laser points. The current database consists of ~100,000 time series with satellite laser altimetry data from ICESat, airborne laser observations obtained by NASA's Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) and the Land, Vegetation and Ice Sensor (LVIS). The upgrade is significant, because not only new observations from 2013 and 2014 have been added but also a number of improvements lead to a more comprehensive and consistent record of elevation-changes. First, we used the model that gives in addition to ice sheet also information about ice caps and glaciers (Rastner et al., 2012) for deciding if a laser point is on the ice sheet or ice cap. Then we added small gaps that exist in the ICESat GLA12 data set because the ice sheet mask is not wide enough. The new database is now more complete and will facilitate more accurate comparisons of mass balance studies obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment system (GRACE). For determining the part of a time series caused by ice dynamics we used the new firn compaction model and Surface Mass Balance (SMB) estimates from RACMO2.3. The new database spans the time period from 1993 to 2014. Adding new observations amounts to a spatial densification of the old record and at the same time extends the time domain by two years. Our presentation will show the improvement of the reconstruction of the total changes, those caused by SMB and ice dynamic during the ICESat mission (2003-2009). Moreover we will review changes on scales from individual outlet glaciers to drainage basins and the entire ice sheet.

Present-day Circum-Antarctic Simulations using the POPSICLES Coupled Ice Sheet-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asay-Davis, X.; Martin, D. F.; Price, S. F.; Maltrud, M. E.; Collins, W.

2014-12-01

We present POPSICLES simulation results covering the full Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Southern Ocean spanning the period 1990 to 2010. Simulations are performed at 0.1o (~5 km) ocean resolution and with adaptive ice-sheet model resolution as fine as 500 m. We compare time-averaged melt rates below a number of major ice shelves with those reported by Rignot et al. (2013) as well as other recent studies. We also present seasonal variability and decadal trends in submarine melting from several Antarctic regions. Finally, we explore the influence on basal melting and system dynamics resulting from two different choices of climate forcing: a "normal-year" climatology and the CORE v. 2 forcing data (Large and Yeager 2008).POPSICLES couples the POP2x ocean model, a modified version of the Parallel Ocean Program (Smith and Gent, 2002), and the BISICLES ice-sheet model (Cornford et al., 2012). POP2x includes sub-ice-shelf circulation using partial top cells (Losch, 2008) and boundary layer physics following Holland and Jenkins (1999), Jenkins (2001), and Jenkins et al. (2010). Standalone POP2x output compares well with standard ice-ocean test cases (e.g., ISOMIP; Losch, 2008) and other continental-scale simulations and melt-rate observations (Kimura et al., 2013; Rignot et al., 2013). BISICLES makes use of adaptive mesh refinement and a 1st-order accurate momentum balance similar to the L1L2 model of Schoof and Hindmarsh (2009) to accurately model regions of dynamic complexity, such as ice streams, outlet glaciers, and grounding lines. Results of BISICLES simulations have compared favorably to comparable simulations with a Stokes momentum balance in both idealized tests (MISMIP-3D; Pattyn et al., 2013) and realistic configurations (Favier et al. 2014).A companion presentation, "Response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to ocean forcing using the POPSICLES coupled ice sheet-ocean model" in session C024 covers the ice-sheet response to these melt rates in the coupled simulation. The figure shows eddy activity in the vertically integrated (barotropic) velocity nearly six years into a POPSICLES simulation of the Antarctic region.

Local processes and regional patterns - Interpreting a multi-decadal altimetry record of Greenland Ice Sheet changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Csatho, B. M.; Schenk, A. F.; Babonis, G. S.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; van der Veen, C. J.; Khan, S. A.; Porter, D. F.

2016-12-01

This study presents a new, comprehensive reconstruction of Greenland Ice Sheet elevation changes, generated using the Surface Elevation And Change detection (SERAC) approach. 35-year long elevation-change time series (1980-2015) were obtained at more than 150,000 locations from observations acquired by NASA's airborne and spaceborne laser altimeters (ATM, LVIS, ICESat), PROMICE laser altimetry data (2007-2011) and a DEM covering the ice sheet margin derived from stereo aerial photographs (1970s-80s). After removing the effect of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and the elastic crustal response to changes in ice loading, the time series were partitioned into changes due to surface processes and ice dynamics and then converted into mass change histories. Using gridded products, we examined ice sheet elevation, and mass change patterns, and compared them with other estimates at different scales from individual outlet glaciers through large drainage basins, on to the entire ice sheet. Both the SERAC time series and the grids derived from these time series revealed significant spatial and temporal variations of dynamic mass loss and widespread intermittent thinning, indicating the complexity of ice sheet response to climate forcing. To investigate the regional and local controls of ice dynamics, we examined thickness change time series near outlet glacier grounding lines. Changes on most outlet glaciers were consistent with one or more episodes of dynamic thinning that propagates upstream from the glacier terminus. The spatial pattern of the onset, duration, and termination of these dynamic thinning events suggest a regional control, such as warming ocean and air temperatures. However, the intricate spatiotemporal pattern of dynamic thickness change suggests that, regardless of the forcing responsible for initial glacier acceleration and thinning, the response of individual glaciers is modulated by local conditions. We use statistical methods, such as principal component analysis and multivariate regression to analyze the dynamic ice-thickness change time series derived by SERAC and to investigate the primary forcings and controls on outlet glacier changes.

The Pleistocene evolution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in the Prydz bay region: Stable isotopic evidence from ODP Site 1167

USGS Publications Warehouse

Theissen, K.M.; Dunbar, R.B.; Cooper, A. K.; Mucciarone, D.A.; Hoffmann, D.

2003-01-01

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 188, Prydz Bay, East Antarctica is part of a larger initiative to explore the Cenozoic history of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through direct drilling and sampling of the continental margins. In this paper, we present stable isotopic results from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1167 located on the Prydz Channel Trough Mouth Fan (TMF), the first Antarctic TMF to be drilled. The foraminifer-based ??18O record is interpreted along with sedimentary and downhole logging evidence to reconstruct the Quaternary glacial history of Prydz Bay and the adjacent Lambert Glacier Amery Ice Shelf System (LGAISS). We report an electron spin resonance age date of 36. 9 ?? 3.3 ka at 0.45 m below sea floor and correlate suspected glacial-interglacial cycles with the global isotopic stratigraphy to improve the chronology for Site 1167. The ??18O record based on planktonic (Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s.)) and limited benthic results (Globocassidulina crassa), indicates a trend of ice sheet expansion that was interrupted by a period of reduced ice volume and possibly warmer conditions during the early-mid-Pleistocene (0.9-1.38 Ma). An increase in ?? 18O values after ??? 900 ka appears to coincide with the mid-Pleistocene climate transition and the expansion of the northern hemisphere ice sheet. The ??18O record in the upper 50 m of the stratigraphic section indicates as few as three glacial-interglacial cycles, tentatively assigned as marine isotopic stages (MIS) 16-21, are preserved since the Brunhes/Matuyama paleomagnetic reversal (780 ka). This suggests that there is a large unconformity near the top of the section and/or that there may have been few extreme advances of the ice sheet since the mid-Pleistocene climate transition resulting in lowered sedimentation rates on the Prydz Channel TMF. The stable isotopic record from Site 1167 is one of the few available from the area south of the Antarctic Polar Front that has been linked with the global isotopic stratigraphy. Our results suggest the potential for the recovery of useful stable isotopic records in other TMFs. ?? 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The impact of Southern Ocean gateways on the Cenozoic climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von der Heydt, Anna; Viebahn, Jan; Dijkstra, Henk

2016-04-01

During the Cenozoic period, which covers the last 65 Million (Ma) years, Earth's climate has undergone a major long-term transition from warm "greenhouse" to colder "icehouse" conditions with extensive ice sheets in the polar regions of both hemispheres. On the very long term the gradual cooling may be seen as response to the overall slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2-concentration due to weathering processes in the Earth System, however, continental geometry has changed considerably over this period and the long-term gradual trend was interrupted, by several rapid transitions as well as periods where temperature and greenhouse gas concentrations seem to be decoupled. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary (˜34 Ma, E/O) and mid-Miocene climatic transition (˜13 Ma, MCT) reflect major phases of Antarctic ice sheet build-up and global climate cooling, while Northern Hemisphere ice sheets developed much later, most likely at the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition (˜2.7Ma). Thresholds in atmospheric CO2-concentration together with feedback mechanisms related to land ice formation are now among the favoured mechanisms of these climatic transitions, while the long-proposed ocean circulation changes caused by opening of tectonic gateways seem to play a less direct role. The opening of the Southern Ocean gateways, notably the Drake Passage and the Tasman Gateway as well as the northward movement of Australia over this long time period, however, has eventually led to the development of today's strongest ocean current, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), playing a major role in the transport properties of the global ocean circulation. The overall state of the global ocean circulation, therefore, preconditions the climate system to dramatic events such as major ice sheet formation. Here, we present results of a state-of-the art global climate model (CESM) under various continental configurations: (i) present day geometry, (ii) present day geometry with a closed Drake Passage and (iii) a recently developed late Eocene continental configuration. Between the different configurations we find significant differences in heat transport as well as sea surface and deep ocean temperatures around the Antarctic continent. By decomposing the heat transport with respect to different ocean circulation regimes, we reveal the dominant physical processes responsible for the heat transport changes. Moreover, we compare the fully coupled system with the corresponding ocean-only simulations in order to further analyze the interplay between the ocean gateways, sea-ice and atmospheric feedbacks. Finally, for the ocean-only simulations we also compare eddy-resolving spatial resolution with non-eddying resolution to quantify the relevance of resolved mesoscale turbulence on the changes in ocean circulation regimes induced by gateway openings. In conclusion, we demonstrate that for deciphering the different mechanisms active in the steps of the Cenozoic greenhouse-to-icehouse transition detailed analyses of the pathways of heat in the different climate subsystems are crucial in order to clearly identify the physical processes at work.

The deglacial history of NW Alexander Island, Antarctica, from surface exposure dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Joanne S.; Everest, Jeremy D.; Leat, Philip T.; Golledge, Nicholas R.; Rood, Dylan H.; Stuart, Finlay M.

2012-03-01

Recent changes along the margins of the Antarctic Peninsula, such as the collapse of the Wilkins Ice Shelf, have highlighted the effects of climatic warming on the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS). However, such changes must be viewed in a long-term (millennial-scale) context if we are to understand their significance for future stability of the Antarctic ice sheets. To address this, we present nine new cosmogenic 10Be exposure ages from sites on NW Alexander Island and Rothschild Island (adjacent to the Wilkins Ice Shelf) that provide constraints on the timing of thinning of the Alexander Island ice cap since the last glacial maximum. All but one of the 10Be ages are in the range 10.2-21.7 ka, showing a general trend of progressive ice-sheet thinning since at least 22 ka until 10 ka. The data also provide a minimum estimate (490 m) for ice-cap thickness on NW Alexander Island at the last glacial maximum. Cosmogenic 3He ages from a rare occurrence of mantle xenoliths on Rothschild Island yield variable ages up to 46 ka, probably reflecting exhumation by periglacial processes.

ICESat's First Year of Measurements Over the Polar Ice Sheets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuman, C. A.

2004-05-01

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was developed to measure changes in elevation of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Its primary mission goal is to significantly refine estimates of polar ice sheet mass balance. Obtaining precise, spatially dense, ice sheet elevations through time is the first step towards this goal. ICESat data will then enable study of associations between observed ice changes and dynamic or climatic forcing factors, and thus enable improved estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat was launched on January 12, 2003 and acquired science data from February 20th to March 29th with the first of the three lasers of the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). Data acquisition with the second laser began on September 25th and continued until November 18th, 2003. For one-year change detection, the second laser is scheduled for operation from approximately February 17th to March 20th, 2004. Additional operational periods will be selected to 1) enable periodic measurements through the year, and 2) to support of other NASA Earth Science Enterprise missions and activities. To obtain these precise ice sheet elevations, GLAS has a 1064 nm wavelength laser operating at 40 Hz with a designed range precision of about 10 cm. The laser footprints are about 70 m in diameter on the Earth's surface and are spaced every 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system will enable laser footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibration is completed. The orbital altitude averages 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with coverage extending from 86 degrees N and S latitude. The spacecraft attitude can be controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of surface reference tracks over the ice sheets and to point off-nadir up to 5 degrees to targets of interest. ICESat was designed to operate for 3 to 5 years but laser lifetime is uncertain and may not achieve this goal based on a detailed review following the failure of Laser 1. However, the results from the first full year of ICESat operations demonstrate that the GLAS instrument can measure ice sheet elevations with unprecedented accuracy. This presentation will show ice sheet results using crossover and exact repeat track analyses. Additional data using the remaining lasers will further demonstrate the capability to measure ice sheet elevation changes and improve mass balance assessments of the great polar ice sheets.

Holocene Fluctuations of North Ice Cap, a Proxy for Climate Conditions along the Northwestern Margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, M. A.; Osterberg, E. C.; Lasher, G. E.; Farnsworth, L. B.; Howley, J. A.; Axford, Y.; Zimmerman, S. R. H.

2015-12-01

North Ice Cap (~76.9°N, 68°W, summit elevation 1322 m asl), a small, independent ice cap in northwestern Greenland, is located within ~25 km of the Greenland Ice Sheet margin and Harald Molkte Bræ outlet glacier. We present geochronological, geomorphic and sedimentological data constraining the Holocene extents of North Ice Cap and suggest that its past fluctuations can be used as a proxy for climate conditions along the northwestern margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Prior work by Goldthwait (1960) used glacial geomorphology and radiocarbon ages of subfossil plants emerging along shear planes in the ice cap margin to suggest that that North Ice Cap was not present during the early Holocene and nucleated in the middle to late Holocene time, with the onset of colder conditions. Subfossil plants emerging at shear planes in the North Ice Cap margin yield radiocarbon ages of ~4.8-5.9 cal kyr BP (Goldthwait, 1960) and ~AD 1000-1350 (950-600 cal yr BP), indicating times when the ice cap was smaller than at present. In situ subfossil plants exposed by recent ice cap retreat date to ~AD 1500-1840 (450-110 cal yr BP) and indicate small fluctuations of the ice cap margin. 10Be ages of an unweathered, lichen-free drift <100 m from the present North Ice Cap margin range from ~500 to 8000 yrs ago. We suggest that the drift was deposited during the last ~500 yrs and that the older 10Be ages are influenced by 10Be inherited from a prior period of exposure. We also infer ice cap fluctuations using geochemical data from a Holocene-long sediment core from Deltasø, a downstream lake that currently receives meltwater from North Ice Cap. The recent recession of the North Ice Cap margin influenced a catastrophic drainage of a large proglacial lake, Søndre Snesø, that our field team documented in August 2012. To our knowledge, this is the first significant lowering of Søndre Snesø in historical time.

Strong sensitivity of Pine Island ice-shelf melting to climatic variability.

PubMed

Dutrieux, Pierre; De Rydt, Jan; Jenkins, Adrian; Holland, Paul R; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Steig, Eric J; Ding, Qinghua; Abrahamsen, E Povl; Schröder, Michael

2014-01-10

Pine Island Glacier has thinned and accelerated over recent decades, significantly contributing to global sea-level rise. Increased oceanic melting of its ice shelf is thought to have triggered those changes. Observations and numerical modeling reveal large fluctuations in the ocean heat available in the adjacent bay and enhanced sensitivity of ice-shelf melting to water temperatures at intermediate depth, as a seabed ridge blocks the deepest and warmest waters from reaching the thickest ice. Oceanic melting decreased by 50% between January 2010 and 2012, with ocean conditions in 2012 partly attributable to atmospheric forcing associated with a strong La Niña event. Both atmospheric variability and local ice shelf and seabed geometry play fundamental roles in determining the response of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to climate.

Evidence for a dynamic East Antarctic ice sheet during the mid-Miocene climate transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Elizabeth L.; van de Flierdt, Tina; Williams, Trevor; Hemming, Sidney R.; Cook, Carys P.; Passchier, Sandra

2017-11-01

The East Antarctic ice sheet underwent a major expansion during the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition, around 14 Ma, lowering sea level by ∼60 m. However, direct or indirect evidence of where changes in the ice sheet occurred is limited. Here we present new insights on timing and locations of ice sheet change from two drill sites offshore East Antarctica. IODP Site U1356, Wilkes Land, and ODP Site 1165, Prydz Bay are located adjacent to two major ice drainage areas, the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and the Lambert Graben. Ice-rafted detritus (IRD), including dropstones, was deposited in concentrations far exceeding those known in the rest of the Miocene succession at both sites between 14.1 and 13.8 Ma, indicating that large amounts of IRD-bearing icebergs were calved from independent drainage basins during this relatively short interval. At Site U1356, the IRD was delivered in distinct pulses, suggesting that the overall ice advance was punctuated by short periods of ice retreat in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Provenance analysis of the mid-Miocene IRD and fine-grained sediments provides additional insights on the movement of the ice margin and subglacial geology. At Site U1356, the dominant 40Ar/39Ar thermochronological age of the ice-rafted hornblende grains is 1400-1550 Ma, differing from the majority of recent IRD in the area, from which we infer an inland source area of this thermochronological age extending along the eastern part of the Adélie Craton, which forms the western side of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin. Neodymium isotopic compositions from the terrigenous fine fraction at Site U1356 imply that the ice margin periodically expanded from high ground well into the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during periods of MMCT ice growth. At Site 1165, MMCT pebble-sized IRD are sourced from both the local Lambert Graben and the distant Aurora Subglacial Basin drainage area. Together, the occurrence and provenance of the IRD and glacially-eroded sediment at these two marine drill sites proximal to the Antarctic continent provide a previously undocumented record of dynamic ice margin change during the 14.1-13.8 Ma interval in three major East Antarctic drainage basins.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling.

PubMed

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun'ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-02-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO 2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

PubMed Central

Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun’ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

2017-01-01

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. PMID:28246631

Sea-Level Projections from the SeaRISE Initiative

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nowicki, Sophie; Bindschadler, Robert

2011-01-01

SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a community organized modeling effort, whose goal is to inform the fifth IPCC of the potential sea-level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in the 21st and 22nd century. SeaRISE seeks to determine the most likely ice sheet response to imposed climatic forcing by initializing an ensemble of models with common datasets and applying the same forcing to each model. Sensitivity experiments were designed to quantify the sea-level rise associated with a change in: 1) surface mass balance, 2) basal lubrication, and 3) ocean induced basal melt. The range of responses, resulting from the multi-model approach, is interpreted as a proxy of uncertainty in our sea-level projections. http://websrv.cs .umt.edu/isis/index.php/SeaRISE_Assessment.

Modeling the imprint of Milankovitch cycles on early Pleistocene ice volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roychowdhury, R.; DeConto, R.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

Global climate during Quaternary and Late Pliocene (present-3.1 Ma) is characterized by alternating glacial and interglacial conditions. Several proposed theories associate these cycles with variations in the Earth's orbital configuration. In this study, we attempt to address the anomalously strong obliquity forcing in the Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene ice volume records (41 kyr world), which stands in sharp contrast to the primary cyclicity of insolation, which is at precessional periods (23 kyr). Model results from GCM simulations show that at low eccentricities (e<0.015), the effect of precession is minimal, and the integrated insolation metrics (such as summer metric, PDD, etc.) vary in-phase between the two hemispheres. At higher eccentricities (e>0.015), precessional response is important, and the insolation metrics vary out-of-phase between the two hemispheres. Using simulations from a GCM-driven ice sheet model, we simulate time continuous ice volume changes from Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Under eccentricities lower than 0.015, ice sheets in both hemispheres respond only to obliquity cycle, and grow and melt together (in-phase). If the ice sheet is simulated with eccentricity higher than 0.015, both hemispheres become more sensitive to precessional variation, and vary out-of-phase with each other, which is consistent with proxy observations from the late Pleistocene glaciations. We use the simulated ice volumes from 2.0 to 1.0 ma to empirically calculate global benthic δ18O variations based on the assumption that relationships between collapse and growth of ice-sheets and sea level is linear and symmetric and that the isotopic signature of the individual ice-sheets has not changed with time. Our modeled global benthic δ18O values are broadly consistent with the paleoclimate proxy records such as the LR04 stack.

Reconstruction of the extent and variability of late Quaternary ice sheets and Arctic sea ice: Insights from new mineralogical and geochemical proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, R. H.; Niessen, F.; Fahl, K.; Forwick, M.; Kudriavtseva, A.; Ponomarenko, E.; Prim, A. K.; Quatmann-Hense, A.; Spielhagen, R. F.; Zou, H.

2016-12-01

The Arctic Ocean and surrounding continents are key areas within the Earth system and very sensitive to present and past climate change. In this context, the timing and extent of circum-Arctic ice sheets and its interaction with oceanic and sea-ice dynamics are major interest and focus of international research. New sediment cores recovered during the Polarstern Expeditions PS87 (Lomonosov Ridge/2014) and PS93.1 (Fram Strait/2015) together with several sediment cores available from previous Polarstern expeditions allow to carry out a detailed sedimentological and geochemical study that may help to unravel the changes in Arctic sea ice and circum-Arctic ice sheets during late Quaternary times. Our new data include biomarkers indicative for past sea-ice extent, phytoplankton productivity and terrigenous input as well as grain size, physical property, XRD and XRF data indicative for sources and pathways of terrigenous sediments (ice-rafted debris/IRD) related to glaciations in Eurasia, East Siberia, Canada and Greenland. Here, we present examples from selected sediment cores that give new insights into the timing and extent of sea ice and glaciations during MIS 6 to MIS 2. To highlight one example: SE-NW oriented, streamlined landforms have been mapped on top of the southern Lomonosov Ridge (LR) at water depths between 800 and 1000 m over long distances during Polarstern Expedition PS87, interpreted to be glacial lineations that formed beneath grounded ice sheets and ice streams. The orientations of the lineations identified are similar to those on the East Siberian continental margin, suggesting an East Siberian Chukchi Ice Sheet extended far to the north on LR during times of extreme Quaternary glaciations. Based on our new biomarker records from Core PS2757 (located on LR near 81°N) indicating a MIS 6 ice-edge situation with some open-water phytoplankton productivity, the glacial erosional event should have been older than MIS 6 (e.g., MIS 12?).

Regional Climate Modeling over the Glaciated Regions of the Canadian High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gready, Benjamin P.

The Canadian Arctic Islands (CAI) contain the largest concentration of terrestrial ice outside of the continental ice sheets. Mass loss from this region has recently increased sharply due to above average summer temperatures. Thus, increasing the understanding of the mechanisms responsible for mass loss from this region is critical. Previously, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been utilized to estimate climatic balance over Greenland and Antarctica. This method offers the opportunity to study a full suite of climatic variables over extensive spatially distributed grids. However, there are doubts of the applicability of such models to the CAI, given the relatively complex topography of the CAI. To test RCMs in the CAI, the polar version of the regional climate model MM5 was run at high resolution over Devon Ice Cap. At low altitudes, residuals (computed through comparisons with in situ measurements) in the net radiation budget were driven primarily by residuals in net shortwave (NSW) radiation. Residuals in NSW are largely due to inaccuracies in modeled cloud cover and modeled albedo. Albedo on glaciers and ice sheets is oversimplified in Polar MM5 and its successor, the Polar version of the Weather Research and Forecast model (Polar WRF), and is an obvious place for model improvement. Subsequently, an inline parameterization of albedo for Polar WRF was developed as a function of the depth, temperature and age of snow. The parameterization was able to reproduce elevation gradients of seasonal mean albedo derived from satellite albedo measurements (MODIS MOD10A1 daily albedo), on the western slope of the Greenland Ice Sheet for three years. Feedbacks between modelled albedo and modelled surface energy budget components were identified. The shortwave radiation flux feeds back positively with changes to albedo, whereas the longwave, turbulent and ground energy fluxes all feed back negatively, with a maximum combined magnitude of two thirds of the shortwave feedback magnitude. These strong feedbacks demonstrate that an accurate albedo parameterization must be run inline within an RCM, to accurately quantify the net surface energy budget of an ice sheet. Finally, Polar WRF, with the improved albedo parameterization, was used to simulate climatic balance over the Queen Elizabeth Islands for the summers of 2001 to 2008. Climatic balance was derived from the output using energy balance and temperature index melt models. Regional mass balance was calculated by combining climatic balance with estimates of iceberg discharge. Mass balance estimates from the model agreed, within the bounds of uncertainty, with estimates from previous studies, thus supporting the assertion that mass loss from the QEI accelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. Melt rates on the seven major icecaps of the QEI became more correlated to one another during the period 2001-2008. However, precipitation became less correlated from 2003-2008. These observations are coincident with dramatic increases in melt on all of the ice caps, and it is speculated that both are caused by decreases in the scale of disturbances delivering precipitation to the region over time.

A new research project on the interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fukuda, Y.; Nishijima, J.; Kazama, T.; Nakamura, K.; Doi, K.; Suganuma, Y.; Okuno, J.; Araya, A.; Kaneda, H.; Aoyama, Y.

2017-12-01

A new research project of "Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas" funded by JSPS (Japan Society for the Promotion of Science) has recently been launched. The title of the project is "Giant reservoirs of heat/water/material: Global environmental changes driven by Southern Ocean and Antarctic Ice Sheet", and as a five years project, is aiming to establish a new research area for Antarctic environmental system science. The project consists of 7 research topics, including Antarctic ice sheet and Southern ocean sciences, new observation methodology, modeling and other interdisciplinary topics, and we are involved in the topic A02-2, "Interaction of the solid Earth and the Antarctic Ice Sheet". The Antarctic ice sheet, which relates to the global climate changes through the sea level rise and ocean circulation, is an essential element of the Earth system for predicting the future environment changes. Thus many studies of the ice sheet changes have been conducted by means of geomorphological, geological, geodetic surveys, as well as satellite gravimetry and satellite altimetry. For these studies, one of the largest uncertainties is the effects of GIA. Therefore, GIA as a key to investigate the interaction between the solid Earth and the ice sheet changes, we plan to conduct geomorphological, geological and geodetic surveys in the inland mountain areas and the coastal areas including the surrounding areas of a Japanese station Syowa in East Antarctica, where the in-situ data for constraining GIA models are very few. Combining these new observations with other in-site data, various satellite data and numerical modeling, we aim to estimating a precise GIA model, constructing a reliable ice melting history after the last glacial maximum and obtaining the viscoelastic structure of the Earth's interior. In the presentation, we also show the five years research plans as well. This study was partially supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 17H06321.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Observationally constrained projections of Antarctic ice sheet instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Tamsin; Ritz, Catherine; Durand, Gael; Payne, Anthony; Peyaud, Vincent; Hindmarsh, Richard

2015-04-01

Large parts of the Antarctic ice sheet lie on bedrock below sea level and may be vulnerable to a positive feedback known as Marine Ice Sheet Instability (MISI), a self-sustaining retreat of the grounding line triggered by oceanic or atmospheric changes. There is growing evidence MISI may be underway throughout the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) of West Antarctica, induced by circulation of warm Circumpolar Deep Water. If this retreat is sustained the region could contribute up to 1-2 m to global mean sea level, and if triggered in other areas the potential contribution to sea level on centennial to millennial timescales could be two to three times greater. However, physically plausible projections of Antarctic MISI are challenging: numerical ice sheet models are too low in spatial resolution to resolve grounding line processes or else too computationally expensive to assess modelling uncertainties, and no dynamical models exist of the ocean-atmosphere-ice sheet system. Furthermore, previous numerical ice sheet model projections for Antarctica have not been calibrated with observations, which can reduce uncertainties. Here we estimate the probability of dynamic mass loss in the event of MISI under a medium climate scenario, assessing 16 modelling uncertainties and calibrating the projections with observed mass losses in the ASE from 1992-2011. We project losses of up to 30 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100 and 72 cm SLE by 2200 (95% credibility interval: CI). Our results are substantially lower than previous estimates. The ASE sustains substantial losses, 83% of the continental total by 2100 and 67% by 2200 (95% CI), but in other regions losses are limited by ice dynamical theory, observations, or a lack of projected triggers.

Evaluation of Surface and Near-Surface Melt Characteristics on the Greenland Ice Sheet using MODIS and QuikSCAT Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Nghiem, Son V.; Schaaf, Crystal B.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2009-01-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet has been the focus of much attention recently because of increasing melt in response to regional climate warming. To improve our ability to measure surface melt, we use remote-sensing data products to study surface and near-surface melt characteristics of the Greenland Ice Sheet for the 2007 melt season when record melt extent and runoff occurred. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily land-surface temperature (LST), MODIS daily snow albedo, and a special diurnal melt product derived from QuikSCAT (QS) scatterometer data, are all effective in measuring the evolution of melt on the ice sheet. These daily products, produced from different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum, are sensitive to different geophysical features, though QS- and MODIS-derived melt generally show excellent correspondence when surface melt is present on the ice sheet. Values derived from the daily MODIS snow albedo product drop in response to melt, and change with apparent grain-size changes. For the 2007 melt season, the QS and MODIS LST products detect 862,769 square kilometers and 766,184 square kilometers of melt, respectively. The QS product detects about 11% greater melt extent than is detected by the MODIS LST product probably because QS is more sensitive to surface melt, and can detect subsurface melt. The consistency of the response of the different products demonstrates unequivocally that physically-meaningful melt/freeze boundaries can be detected. We have demonstrated that these products, used together, can improve the precision in mapping surface and near-surface melt extent on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Challenges faced by ice sheet projections: lessons from the SeaRISE effort

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S.

2013-12-01

Projecting the future evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is a problem of enormous societal importance, as ice sheet influence our future sea levels. This crucial issue is however a non trivial task, as demonstrated by the Sea level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort: prescribing simple external forcings to a group of ice sheet models results in a spread in responses. Understanding the source of the diversity in the model results is therefore crucial in order to reduce the uncertainty in the projection. Just as in any future climate simulation, the analysis presented here demonstrates that the model spread in the SeaRISE effort is due to a number of factors. First is the problem of obtaining an initial configuration for the projection. The two commonly used methods, interglacial spin-up or data assimilation, have both advantages and drawbacks, and will affect the determination of fields that cannot be measured (such as basal slipperiness). Second is the uncertainty in actual observations, which includes but is not limited to surface mass balance, basal topography, ice thickness, and surface velocities. An additional issue with these observations is that they can be transient quantities which are not measured at the same time, but ice sheet models require them to be simultaneous. Third is the uncertainty in the models' physics and discretization, which is limited by our understanding (or lack of understanding) of crucial processes that often occur at subgrid scale relative to the resolution used by continental ice sheet models, and thus require parameterization. Grounding line migration and sliding laws are such an example. Fourth is the determination of the future forcing scenarios and their implementation as the external forcing. Unfortunately, as demonstrated in this analysis, all ice sheet models face these limitations to some degree, so that it is extremely difficult to identify a set of models and projections that should be trusted in preference to others. One model might be more suitable for assessing the impact of a warmer atmosphere because of its initialization procedure, but its deficiencies in capturing grounding line migration, for example, might make its projections for oceanic forcing unreliable. More work is thus required to evaluate individual ice sheet models' skills in projection, but this crucial and challenging task is left for future studies.

Advances in Measuring Antarctic Sea-Ice Thickness and Ice-Sheet Elevations with ICESat Laser Altimetry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zwally, H. Jay

2004-01-01

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) has been measuring elevations of the Antarctic ice sheet and sea-ice freeboard elevations with unprecedented accuracy. Since February 20,2003, data has been acquired during three periods of laser operation varying from 36 to 54 days, which is less than the continuous operation of 3 to 5 years planned for the mission. The primary purpose of ICESat is to measure time-series of ice-sheet elevation changes for determination of the present-day mass balance of the ice sheets, study of associations between observed ice changes and polar climate, and estimation of the present and future contributions of the ice sheets to global sea level rise. ICESat data will continue to be acquired for approximately 33 days periods at 3 to 6 month intervals with the second of ICESat's three lasers, and eventually with the third laser. The laser footprints are about 70 m on the surface and are spaced at 172 m along-track. The on-board GPS receiver enables radial orbit determinations to an accuracy better than 5 cm. The orbital altitude is around 600 km at an inclination of 94 degrees with a 8-day repeat pattern for the calibration and validation period, followed by a 91 -day repeat period for the rest of the mission. The expected range precision of single footprint measurements was 10 cm, but the actual range precision of the data has been shown to be much better at 2 to 3 cm. The star-tracking attitude-determination system should enable footprints to be located to 6 m horizontally when attitude calibrations are completed. With the present attitude calibration, the elevation accuracy over the ice sheets ranges from about 30 cm over the low-slope areas to about 80 cm over areas with slopes of 1 to 2 degrees, which is much better than radar altimetry. After the first period of data collection, the spacecraft attitude was controlled to point the laser beam to within 50 m of reference surface tracks over the ice sheets. Detection of ice elevation changes over select areas of the ice sheet is demonstrated with using both crossover analysis and precise-repeat track analysis. Sea ice freeboard-height distributions over the Antarctic sea pack are derived over distances of 50 km and converted into maps of average freeboard thickness and sea-ice thickness.

Seeking Hidden Glaciations in the Greenhouse World: A New Approach Using Nd Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scher, H. D.; Bohaty, S. M.

2009-12-01

Ephemeral polar glaciations during the early Cenozoic and Cretaceous have been proposed to account for excursions to higher benthic foraminiferal δ18O values, variations in foraminiferal Sr/Ca ratios, and high-frequency eustatic sea level changes. This interpretation requires modifying the view of an “ice-free” greenhouse climate and raises new questions about how the climate system operated in a greenhouse state. However, very limited information has been gathered about these glaciations, partly because direct sedimentological evidence for ice sheets is lacking. Based on constraints from δ18O records and sea-level estimates, it appears that these glaciations were associated with the growth of small-to-medium ice sheets (5 to 15 x 106 km3) on Antarctica. If these ice sheets were confined to the Antarctic interior, they may not have left any physical evidence of their existence in proximal marine sediments. Yet, it may be possible to detect these “hidden glaciations” with proxies for continental weathering. Neodymium (Nd) isotopes have the potential to identify hidden glaciations because ancient basement rocks on Antarctica are glacially eroded during ice sheet advances. The accompanying weathering pulses contribute an extremely nonradiogenic fingerprint to the Southern Ocean. Nd isotope records derived from fossil fish teeth from circum-Antarctic sediment cores confirm that the Nd isotopic composition of Southern Ocean water masses shifted regionally toward nonradiogenic ɛNd values during the buildup of ice sheets during the Eocene-Oligocene Transition (EOT). The observed response to glacial weathering is particularly relevant to examining ephemeral glaciations because a strong Nd isotope response accompanies the first δ18O step of the EOT. This step, i.e., the precursor glaciation, most likely reflects ice sheets confined to the interior and coastal mountains of Antarctica, which represents a similar situation to the purported ephemeral glaciations. Detecting short lived weathering pulses associated with ephemeral glaciations requires developing high-resolution, well correlated Nd isotope records at multiple locations and paleodepths to reconstruct Nd isotope changes through time. Broad spatial coverage of Nd isotope records is important for distinguishing between circulation changes and weathering pulses. This approach has the potential to reveal the frequency, timing, and duration of ephemeral glaciations.

Late glacial and Early Holocene climatic conditions along the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet, registered by glacial extents in Milne Land, east Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, L.; Kelly, M. A.; Lowell, T. V.

2010-12-01

Determining the mechanisms that caused past abrupt climate changes is important for understanding today’s rapidly warming climate and, in particular, whether we may be faced with abrupt climate change in the future. Scientists, policy makers and the public are concerned about ongoing warming because it is sending our climate into unprecedented territory at a rapid pace. The Younger Dryas cold event (~12,850-11,650 cal yr B.P.) was an abrupt climate event that occurred during the last transition from glacial to interglacial conditions. Due to its abrupt nature and the magnitude of temperature change that occurred, the Younger Dryas has been the focus of extensive research, however, the mechanisms that caused this cold event are still not well understood. Wide belts (up to 5 km) of moraines, known as the Milne Land stade moraines, are present in the Scoresby Sund region of central east Greenland. Previous work in the region using a combination of equilibrium line altitudes, surface exposure dating of moraines, and relative sea level changes indicates that mountain glacier advances during Younger Dryas time represent only moderate summer temperature cooling (~3-4C colder than at present). In contrast, Greenland ice cores, which register mean annual temperatures, indicate that Younger Dryas temperatures over the ice sheet were ~15C colder than at present. This mismatch between the two nearby paleoclimate records is interpreted to result from strong seasonality (very cold winters and only moderately cold summers) during Younger Dryas time. We are examining seasonality during Younger Dryas time by developing records of summer temperatures from local glaciers in Milne Land (71.0°N, 25.6°W). These mountain glaciers are located adjacent to the Greenland Ice Sheet, less than 50 km from the location of Renland Ice core and only ~250 km from the locations of the GISP2 and GRIP cores. We present new 10Be ages of local glacial extents in Milne Land. Ages range from 11,880 yr to 10,410 yr, indicating that glacial advances occurred during the late Younger Dryas and early Holocene time. The ELA depression of 3-4°C associated with these advances indicates strong seasonality during this time period. These new ages do not show an influence of 10Be inherited from prior periods of exposure, an issue that has hindered applications of 10Be dating in the region in the past. Thus, these ages demonstrate clear evidence for advances of late glacial and early Holocene cooling that must have also influenced the margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Ice2sea - Estimating the future contribution of continental ice to sea-level rise - project summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, Elaina; Vaughan, David

2013-04-01

Ice2sea brings together the EU's scientific and operational expertise from 24 leading institutions across Europe and beyond. Improved projections of the contribution of ice to sea-level rise produced by this major European-funded programme will inform the fifth IPCC report (due in September 2013). In 2007, the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlighted ice-sheets as the most significant remaining uncertainty in projections of sea-level rise. Understanding about the crucial ice-sheet effects was "too limited to assess their likelihood or provide a best estimate of an upper bound for sea-level rise". Ice2sea was created to address these issues - the project started in 2009 and is now drawing to a close, with our final symposium in May 2013, and final publicity activities around the IPCC report release in autumn 2013. Here we present a summary of the overall and key outputs of the ice2sea project.

Instability of the Antarctic Ross Sea Embayment as climate warms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Terence; Zhao, Zihong; Hintz, Raymond; Fastook, James

2017-06-01

Collapse of the Antarctic Ice Sheet since the Last Glacial Maximum 18,000 years ago is most pronounced in the Ross Sea Embayment, which is partly ice-free during Antarctic summers, thereby breaching the O-ring of ice shelves and sea ice surrounding Antarctica that stabilizes the ice sheet. The O-ring may have vanished during Early Holocene (5000 to 3000 B.C.), Roman (1 to 400 A.D.), and Medieval (900 to 1300 A.D.) warm periods and reappeared during the Little Ice Age (1300 to 1900 A.D.). We postulate further collapse in the embayment during the post-1900 warming may be forestalled because East Antarctic outlet glaciers "nail" the Ross Ice Shelf to the Transantarctic Mountains so it can resist the push from West Antarctic ice streams. Our hypothesis is examined for Byrd Glacier and a static ice shelf using three modeling experiments having plastic, viscous, and viscoplastic solutions as more data and improved modeling became available. Observed crevasse patterns were not reproduced. A new research study is needed to model a dynamic Ross Ice Shelf with all its feeder ice streams, outlet glaciers, and ice calving dynamics in three dimensions over time to fully test our hypothesis. The required model must allow accelerated calving if further warming melts sea ice and discerps the ice shelf. Calving must then successively pull the outlet glacier "nails" so collapse of the marine West Antarctic Ice Sheet proceeds to completion.

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, J. C.; DiGirolamo, N. E.; Shuman, C. A.

2011-01-01

To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of monthly IST of the Greenland ice sheet, from 1982 to the present using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 5-km resolution. "Clear-sky" surface temperature increases have been measured from the early 1980s to the early 2000s in the Arctic using AVHRR data, showing increases ranging from 0.57-0.02 (Wang and Key, 2005) to 0.72 0.10 deg C per decade (Comiso, 2006). Arctic warming has implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the ice sheet is near 0 deg C in the melt season and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting (Hanna et al., 2008). The algorithm used for this work has a long history of measuring IST in the Arctic with AVHRR (Key and Haefliger, 1992). The data are currently available from 1981 to 2004 in the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset (Fowler et al., 2000). J. Key1NOAA modified the AVHRR algorithm for use with MODIS (Hall et al., 2004). The MODIS algorithm is now being processed over Greenland. Issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover, and cross-calibration between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, time series of satellite ISTs do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with in-situ (see Koenig and Hall, in press) and automatic-weather station data (e.g., Shuman et al., 2001).

Modeling of Greenland outlet glaciers response to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beckmann, J.

2017-12-01

Over the past two decades net mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) quadrupled, resulting in 25% of the global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Increased mass loss of the GIS is caused by enhanced surface melting and speedup of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. This speedup has been related, among other factors, to enhanced submarine melting, which in turn is caused by warming of the surrounding ocean and by increased subglacial, meltwater discharge. Yet, ice-ocean processes are not properly represented in contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet models used to project future changes in the GIS. In this work, we performed numerical experiments with a one-dimensional plume model coupled to a one-dimensional (depth- and width- integrated) ice flow model for several representative outlet glaciers in Greenland. We investigate the dynamic response of the coupled ice-flow plume model to scenarios of future climate change. In particular, we examine the transient response of the outlet glaciers to projected changes in surface melting, ocean temperature and subglacial discharge. With our modeling approach we quantify the amount of the surface and submarine melting and the resulting retreat and mass loss for each individual glacier for the next 100 years.

Greenland plays a large role in the gloomy picture painted of probable future sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanna, Edward

2012-12-01

Goelzer et al (2012) paint a portentous picture of what is likely to happen to the global sea-level over the next 1000 years. This worrying assessment is based on our current best understanding of how the world's giant ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, as well as a quarter of a million smaller glacial ice masses, and the ocean collectively respond to ongoing climate change. Theirs is a state of the science study that integrates these key contributors of sea-level change based on the latest models and current understanding, and an integrated Earth systems modelling approach termed LOVECLIM. As they point out in their study, only a handful of global climate models to date—i.e. models that are used to make predictions of future climate change—incorporate dynamically (fully) coupled ice-sheet models. According to the scenarios presented by Goelzer et al (2012), we could see between 2.1 and 6.8 m of global sea-level rise by 3000 AD, compared with 'just' 1.1 m if the atmosphere is stabilised at 2000 CO2 levels. Much, up to some 4 m, of this contribution comes from increased melting and mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet, which is several times more sensitive than the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures in these simulations. Interestingly, dynamical ice mass losses through iceberg calving become increasingly less significant for Greenland as the ice sheet retreats further inland during the 1000 yr runs (Sole et al 2008). The latest modelling studies show that around a half, perhaps more, of the recent Greenland mass losses (Barletta et al 2012, Rignot et al 2011) are already through increased melt and runoff (Hanna et al 2008, 2012, van den Broeke et al 2009); note also the recent (summer 2012) record surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet (Nghiem et al 2012) caused by atmospheric forcing (Overland et al 2012) and the potential of such events to impact on ice flow (Bartholomew et al 2011). By contrast, the greatest sea-level rise reported for Antarctica by 3000 AD is no more than 94 cm Antarctica remains relatively insensitive for future sea-level rise given a temperature increase of no more than 5-6 °C (quite a lot) above present levels. Oceanic thermal expansion and, especially, glacier melt seem very much second-order effects, compared with the Greenland sea-level contribution, for the next millennium. As expected, there are considerable differences between the outcomes of the model experiments depending on the time and level at which greenhouse gas emissions are stabilised. I am not quite sure why they 'prefer' the model version which reaches stabilisation at 2000 greenhouse gas levels since those levels have since been significantly exceeded and show no signs of tailing off yet—quite the reverse. According to the famous Keeling et al dataset from Mauna Loa in Hawaii, atmospheric CO2 levels at about 369 parts per million by volume of the global atmosphere in 2000 have since risen to about 392 ppmv in 2012, and this increase shows no signs of abating. Realistically, it's going to be at least another decade or two (or longer) before we can effectively even begin to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, assuming the political will is there: which at the moment it is not. Of course this does not commit us to the other three more extreme experimental results (from greenhouse gas stabilization at 2100) reported in the study but we are heading dangerously in that direction. In effect the simulations are sensitivity studies, which may be largely unrealistic but are still useful as a kind of guide to what might happen under future climate change. Naturally, many uncertainties remain, especially concerning how ice-sheet motion ('dynamics') is represented in the models (e.g. the absence of so-called 'higher order physics' including longitudinal (push-pull) stresses which can rapidly transfer peripheral ice velocity perturbations inland (Price et al 2011)). Furthermore, the atmospheric model used in LOVECLIM is very coarse at 5.625° latitude/longitude resolution. There appears to be a cancelling out of errors in LOVECLIM, where its climate sensitivity seems quite low (in comparison with other models) but the simulated enhanced high-latitude warming—often termed Arctic amplification and evident in observed climate data for the last 30 years—is quite high. It would be good to include precipitation as well as temperature changes when modelling the future response of glaciers, even though the former is likely to be less important. I do not agree that uncertainties in climate sensitivity can be adequately accounted for by varying boundary and initial conditions in ensembles of models, as all of the model simulations may be systematically biased due to some physical effect that is improperly considered—or unrepresented—by all of the models, but this is a widely used technique and probably the best that can be done here. Despite these caveats, Goelzer et al 's (2012) results will undoubtedly prove useful for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s upcoming Fifth Assessment Report due to be released in 2014. The key challenge remains to further improve the individual components of the Earth system model, especially those concerning ice-sheet dynamics. Acknowledgments EH thanks Ben Brock, Amy Jowett and Andrew Sole for useful editorial suggestions to the text. References Barletta V R, Sørensen L S and Forsberg R 2012 Variability of mass changes at basin scale for Greenland and Antarctica Cryosp. Discuss. 6 3397-446 Bartholomew I, Nienow P, Sole A, Mair D, Cowton T and King M A 2011 Seasonal variations in Greenland ice sheet motion: inland extent and behaviour at higher elevations Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 307 271-8 Goelzer H, Huybrechts P, Raper S C B, Loutre M -F, Goosse H and Fichefet T 2012 Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM Environ. Res. Lett. 7 045401 Hanna E, Huybrechts P, Steffen K, Cappelen J, Huff R, Shuman C, Irvine-Fynn T, Wise S and Griffiths M 2008 Increased runoff from melt from the Greenland ice sheet: a response to global warming J. Clim. 21 331-41 Hanna E, Jones J M, Cappelen J, Mernild S H, Wood L, Steffen K and Huybrechts P 2012 The influence of North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic forcing effects on 1900-2010 Greenland summer climate and ice melt/runoff Int. J. Climatol. at press (doi:10.1002/joc.3475) Nghiem S V, Hall D K, Mote T L, Tedesco M, Albert M R, Keegan K, Shuman C A A, DiGirolamo N E and Neumann G 2012 The extreme melt across the Greenland ice sheet in 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. at press (doi:10.1029/2012GL053611) Overland J E, Francis J, Hanna E and Wang M 2012 The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L19804 Price S F, Payne A J, Howat I M and Smith B E 2011 Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 108 8978-83 Rignot E, Velicogna I, van den Broeke M R, Monaghan A and Lenaerts J 2011 Acceleration of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L05503 Sole A, Payne T, Bamber J, Nienow P and Krabill W 2008 Testing hypotheses of the cause of peripheral thinning of the Greenland ice sheet: is land-terminating ice thinning at anomalously high rates? Cryosphere 2 205-18 van den Broeke M, Bamber J, Ettema J, Rignot E, Schrama E, van de Berg W, van Meijgaard E, Velicogna I and Wouters B 2009 Partitioning recent Greenland mass loss Science 326 984-6

Continuous Estimates of Surface Density and Annual Snow Accumulation with Multi-Channel Snow/Firn Penetrating Radar in the Percolation Zone, Western Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, T.; Marshall, H. P.; Bradford, J.; Hawley, R. L.; Osterberg, E. C.; McCarthy, F.; Lewis, G.; Graeter, K.

2017-12-01

A priority of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB) prediction is ascertaining the surface density and annual snow accumulation. These forcing data can be supplied into firn compaction models and used to tune Regional Climate Models (RCM). RCMs do not accurately capture subtle changes in the snow accumulation gradient. Additionally, leading RCMs disagree among each other and with accumulation studies in regions of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) over large distances and temporal scales. RCMs tend to yield inconsistencies over GrIS because of sparse and outdated validation data in the reanalysis pool. Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) implemented multi-channel 500 MHz Radar in multi-offset configuration throughout two traverse campaigns totaling greater than 3500 km along the western percolation zone of GrIS. The multi-channel radar has the capability of continuously estimating snow depth, average density, and annual snow accumulation, expressed at 95% confidence (+-) 0.15 m, (+-) 17 kgm-3, (+-) 0.04 m w.e. respectively, by examination of the primary reflection return from the previous year's summer surface.

Leakage of the Greenland Ice Sheet through accelerated ice flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rignot, E.

2005-12-01

A map of coastal velocities of the Greenland ice sheet was produced from Radarsat-1 acquired during the background mission of 2000 and combined with radio echo sounding data to estimate the ice discharge from the ice sheet. On individual glaciers, ice discharge was compared with snow input from the interior and melt above the flux gate to determine the glacier mass balance. Time series of velocities on several glaciers at different latitudes reveal seasonal fluctuations of only 7-8 percent so that winter velocities are only 2 percent less than the yearly mean. The results show the northern Greenland glaciers to be close to balance yet losing mass. No change in ice flow is detected on Petermann, 79north and Zachariae Isstrom in 2000-2004. East Greenland glaciers are in balance and flowing steadily north of Kangerdlussuaq, but Kangerdlussuaq, Helheim and all the southeastern glaciers are thinning dramatically. All these glaciers accelerated, Kangerdlussuaq in 2000, Helheim prior to 2004, and southeast Greenland glaciers accelerated 10 to 50 percent in 2000-2004. Glacier acceleration is generally brutal, probably once the glacier reached a threshold, and sustained. In the northwest, most glaciers are largely out of balance. Jakobshavn accelerated significantly in 2002, and glaciers in its immediate vicinity accelerated more than 50 percent in 2000-2004. Less is known about southwest Greenland glaciers due to a lack of ice thickness data but the glaciers have accelerated there as well and are likely to be strongly out of balance despite thickening of the interior. Overall, I estimate the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet to be about -80 +/-10 cubic km of ice per year in 2000 and -110 +/-15 cubic km of ice per year in 2004, i.e. more negative than based on partial altimetry surveys of the outlet glaciers. As climate continues to warm, more glaciers will accelerate, and the mass balance will become increasingly negative, regardless of the evolution of the ice sheet interior.