Science.gov

Sample records for climate impact assessment

  1. Assessing climate impacts

    PubMed Central

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Zhang, Jian Yun

    2000-01-01

    Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science. PMID:11027321

  2. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  3. The Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dukes, J. S.; Widhalm, M.

    2016-12-01

    With coordination from the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, experts and stakeholders from across Indiana are working together to develop a state-focused assessment to inform decision makers, policy makers, and interested citizens about the likely impacts of climate change in Indiana. While this assessment is not intended to provide policy recommendations, we anticipate it will elevate conversations about climate change risks within a state that is not traditionally focused on these issues, and provide the baseline data needed for moving forward with improved planning and actions. Our guiding principal throughout this process is creating information that matters. We are connecting with stakeholders before, during, and after the assessment process to understand key vulnerabilities, risks, and reasons for concern so we can ensure the Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment (IN CCIA) includes relevant information that is usable by state and local decision makers.The IN CCIA is building a statewide network of experts and stakeholders interested in climate change that can serve as a foundation for a sustained assessment process. This presentation will describe the grassroots, collaborative approach being followed as we conduct this assessment, and discuss the opportunities and challenges encountered along the way.

  4. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  5. Qualitative Assessment: Evaluating the Impacts of Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The South Fork Nooksack River (South Fork) is located in northwest Washington State and is home to nine species of Pacific salmon, including Nooksack early Chinook (aka, spring Chinook salmon), an iconic species for the Nooksack Indian Tribe. The quantity of salmon in the South Fork, especially spring Chinook salmon, has dramatically declined from historic levels, due primarily to habitat degradation from the legacy impacts of various land uses such as commercial forestry, agriculture, flood control, and transportation infrastructure. Segments of the South Fork and some of its tributaries exceed temperature criteria established for the protection of cold-water salmonid populations, and were listed on Washington State’s Clean Water Act (CWA) 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies. High water temperatures in the South Fork are detrimental to fish and other native species that depend on cool, clean, well-oxygenated water. Of the nine salmon species, three have been listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and are of high priority to restoration efforts in the South Fork—spring Chinook salmon, summer steelhead trout, and bull trout. Growing evidence shows that climate change will exacerbate legacy impacts. This qualitative assessment is a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on freshwater habitat and Pacific salmon in the South Fork. It also evaluates the effectiveness of restoration tools that address Pacific salmon recovery.

  6. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  7. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    DOE PAGES

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; ...

    2016-11-23

    Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude thatmore » a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.« less

  8. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    SciTech Connect

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-11-23

    Here, despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude that a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.

  9. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering: TOWARDS A CLIMATE IMPACTS ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR GEOENGINEERING

    SciTech Connect

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

    2017-01-01

    Despite a growing literature on the projected physical climate responses to solar geoengineering — i.e. proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo — there is no clear picture of the subsequent impacts of such a modified climate on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. Here we argue that engaging the climate impacts research community is necessary to evaluate and communicate how solar geoengineering might reduce some risks, exacerbate others, and give rise to novel risks. We review the current state of knowledge on consequences of solar geoengineering and conclude that a thorough assessment of its impacts can proceed by building upon the frameworks developed for assessing impacts of climate change. However, the climate response to solar geoengineering will depend on the form under consideration and the manner in which it is deployed, presenting a novel challenge for the climate impacts research community.

  10. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  11. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    DOE PAGES

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-12-21

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is stillmore » weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.« less

  12. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-12-21

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here in this work, we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Finally, hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  13. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  14. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  15. Impact of weather and climate scenarios on conservation assessment outcomes

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This paper reviews selected watershed studies of the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) and interprets findings from the perspective of potential climate change impacts on conservation outcomes. Primary foci are runoff, soil erosion, sediment transport, watershed sediment yield, and asso...

  16. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  17. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    DOE PAGES

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; ...

    2016-11-23

    Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar-geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of amore » range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.« less

  18. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

    2017-01-01

    Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar-geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.

  19. Towards a comprehensive climate impacts assessment of solar geoengineering

    SciTech Connect

    Irvine, Peter J.; Kravitz, Ben; Lawrence, Mark G.; Gerten, Dieter; Caminade, Cyril; Gosling, Simon N.; Hendy, Erica J.; Kassie, Belay T.; Kissling, W. Daniel; Muri, Helene; Oschlies, Andreas; Smith, Steven J.

    2016-11-23

    Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar-geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.

  20. Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 b...

  1. Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 b...

  2. Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

    2013-12-01

    A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a

  3. Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems

    PubMed Central

    Loehle, Craig

    2011-01-01

    There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO2 on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO2 on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided. PMID:22393483

  4. Uncertainty assessment tool for climate change impact indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Jacob, Daniela; Rechid, Diana; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Juckes, Martin

    2015-04-01

    A major difficulty in the study of climate change impact indicators is dealing with the numerous sources of uncertainties of climate and non-climate data . Its assessment, however, is needed to communicate to users the degree of certainty of climate change impact indicators. This communication of uncertainty is an important component of the FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC). CLIPC is developing a portal to provide a central point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. In this project the Climate Service Center 2.0 is in charge of the development of a tool to assess the uncertainty of climate change impact indicators. The calculation of climate change impact indicators will include climate data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models and re-analyses, and non-climate data. There is a lack of a systematic classification of uncertainties arising from the whole range of climate change impact indicators. We develop a framework that intends to clarify the potential sources of uncertainty of a given indicator and provides - if possible - solutions how to quantify the uncertainties. To structure the sources of uncertainties of climate change impact indicators, we first classify uncertainties along a 'cascade of uncertainty' (Reyer 2013). Our cascade consists of three levels which correspond to the CLIPC meta-classification of impact indicators: Tier-1 indicators are intended to give information on the climate system. Tier-2 indicators attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on biophysical systems (i.e. flood risks). Tier-3 indicators primarily aim at providing information on the socio-economic systems affected by climate change. At each level, the potential sources of uncertainty of the input data sets and its processing will be discussed. Reference: Reyer, C. (2013): The cascade of uncertainty in modeling forest ecosystem responses to environmental change and the challenge of sustainable

  5. A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications climate change has had on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report describes the potential scope and magnitude of climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow (CSOs) mitigation efforts in the Great Lakes Region and New England Region.

  6. Revealing and reducing uncertainties in climate impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    Water resources planning and management involves understanding the vulnerability of water resource systems to a wide range of different stresses. A key responsibility is to identify defensible options for the design and management of systems under an uncertain and changing climate. In the water resources sector this requires defining a range of different climate change narratives in order to evaluate the vulnerability of infrastructure and the effectiveness of different management strategies to climate-related stresses. Recent research is just now beginning to reveal how different methodological choices can impact portrayals of climate risk. We present research showing that the common approaches to climate change assessments in the water sector are affected by substantial uncertainties in methods used for climate downscaling and hydrologic modeling, and suggest that many of these uncertainties are reducible. For example, improving continental scale hydrologic model parameters can reduce one source of uncertainty. We also present research to improve characterization of uncertainty, in order to reduce the extent to which the portrayal of climate change impacts depends on ad hoc methodological choices and provide a holistic estimate of the degree to which the climate change signal emerges from the envelope of uncertainty. We hope that this presentation stimulates discussion on the best practices for climate impact assessments, and ways to improve the robustness of water resources planning under a changing climate.

  7. Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L

    2004-11-01

    Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4 degrees x 5 degrees resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.

  8. Assessing Ozone-Related Health Impacts under a Changing Climate

    PubMed Central

    Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E.; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration–Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4° × 5° resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change. PMID:15531442

  9. Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

    Treesearch

    Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

    2015-01-01

    The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

  10. Arctic Cities and Climate Change: A Geographic Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, N. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    Arctic climate change is a concern for the engineering community, land-use planners and policy makers as it may have significant impacts on socio-economic development and human activities in the northern regions. A warmer climate has potential for a series of positive economic effects, such as development of maritime transportation, enhanced agricultural production and decrease in energy consumption. However, these potential benefits may be outwaited by negative impacts related to transportation accessibility and stability of existing infrastructure, especially in permafrost regions. Compared with the Arctic zones of other countries, the Russian Arctic is characterized by higher population, greater industrial development and urbanization. Arctic urban areas and associated industrial sites are the location of some of intense interaction between man and nature. However, while there is considerable research on various aspects of Arctic climate change impacts on human society, few address effects on Arctic cities and their related industries. This presentation overviews potential climate-change impacts on Russian urban environments in the Arctic and discusses methodology for addressing complex interactions between climatic, permafrost and socio-economic systems at the range of geographical scales. We also provide a geographic assessment of selected positive and negative climate change impacts affecting several diverse Russian Arctic cities.

  11. Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2014-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are

  12. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  13. Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-05-14

    Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  14. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  15. Consideration of climate change on environmental impact assessment in Spain

    SciTech Connect

    Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén

    2016-02-15

    Most of the projects subject to environmental impact assessment (EIA) are closely related to climate change, as they contribute to or are affected by it. The growing certainty about climate change and its impacts makes its consideration an essential part of the EIA process, as well as in strategic environmental assessment (SEA). This paper examines how climate change (CC) has been taken into account in EIA in Spain through the analysis of 1713 environmental records of decision (RODs) of projects submitted for EIA. In 2013 Spain approved one of the most advanced laws in terms of CC consideration in environmental assessment, although it had not yet accumulated extensive practice on the issue. This contrasts with the situation of countries like Canada or the USA, which have a significant body of experience without specific legal requirements. Only 14% of the RODs analysed included references to CC, and in more than half of the cases it was a mere citation. Thermal power plants, which are subject to specific GHG regulations, show the highest consideration, while transport infrastructures, which are important contributors to CC, show a very low consideration. Almost all the references are related to their contribution to CC, while consideration of the effects of CC is minimal. The increasingly common incorporation of CC into SEA, should not imply its exclusion from EIA, because both processes have different aims and uses. Including the obligation to consider CC in the EIA regulations is highly desirable, but probably not enough without other measures, such as practical guidance, training and motivational programmes for practitioners and evaluators. But even these actions cannot ensure effective and adequate assessments of CC. Probably more resources should be spent on creating greater awareness in all the agents involved in EIA. - Highlights: • We analyse how the climate change is considered in EIA in Spain. • Few projects seriously assess climate change.

  16. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

    PubMed

    Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.

  17. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  18. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    PubMed

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-07-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sofaer, Helen; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

    2017-01-01

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

  20. Watershed Model Parameterization for Assessing Impacts due to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yactayo, G. A.; Bhatt, G.

    2014-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay (CB) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program drives water quality policy and management in parts of six states — Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia — along with the District of Columbia to achieve water quality standards in the Bay through reductions in nutrient and sediment pollution. The HSPF Watershed Model (WSM) is used as an accounting tool in the development of the TMDL to track progress and guide implementations of best management practices. Published research has shown that precipitation has increased in the US during 20th century by about ten percent, and half of the increase is due to changes in frequency and intensity in the upper tenth percentile of the distribution. Projections from global climate models suggest that these trends are anticipated to continue over the next century. Our analysis of climate data over the last three decades show similar trends in observed precipitation in the CB Watershed. The impact of climate change on the CB TMDL will be examined in a 2017 assessment of progress in the State and Federal partnership of the Chesapeake Bay Program. This is consistent with the CB Executive Order of May 12, 2009 mandates assessment of the impacts of climate change on the CB TMDL. The WSM has a simulation period of more than 3 decades from 1985 to 2011. Over the simulation period precipitation intensity, temperatures, and CO2 levels are increasing. A study conducted by Najjar et al. (2010) that included regional climate projections suggests that pollutant loads in the CB region will increase over the next century. Butcher et al. (2014) demonstrated that a watershed model parameter needs to be adjusted to compensate for the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on plant transpiration in climate projection applications. This raises the question of whether parameters within a watershed model calibrated using historical climate data are sufficient for assessing hydrologic and water

  1. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  2. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  3. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    PubMed

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2016-12-20

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

  4. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    PubMed

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades.

  5. Tools for assessing climate impacts on fish and wildlife

    Treesearch

    Chad B. Wilsey; Joshua J. Lawler; Edwin P. Maurer; Donald McKenzie; Patricia A. Townsend; Richard Gwozdz; James A. Freund; Keala Hagmann; Karen M. Hutten

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is already affecting many fish and wildlife populations. Managing these populations requires an understanding of the nature, magnitude, and distribution of current and future climate impacts. Scientists and managers have at their disposal a wide array of models for projecting climate impacts that can be used to build such an understanding. Here, we...

  6. Globally downscaled climate projections for assessing the conservation impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Tabor, Karyn; Williams, John W

    2010-03-01

    Assessing the potential impacts of 21st-century climate change on species distributions and ecological processes requires climate scenarios with sufficient spatial resolution to represent the varying effects of climate change across heterogeneous physical, biological, and cultural landscapes. Unfortunately, the native resolutions of global climate models (usually approximately 2 degrees x 2 degrees or coarser) are inadequate for modeling future changes in, e.g., biodiversity, species distributions, crop yields, and water resources. Also, 21st-century climate projections must be debiased prior to use, i.e., corrected for systematic offsets between modeled representations and observations of present climates. We have downscaled future temperature and precipitation projections from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) CMIP3 multi-model data set to 10-minute resolution and debiased these simulations using the change-factor approach and observational data from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). These downscaled data sets are available online and include monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, for 24 climate models and the A1B, A2, and B1 emission scenarios. This paper describes the downscaling method and compares the downscaled and native-resolution simulations. Sharp differences between the original and downscaled data sets are apparent at regional to continental scales, particularly for temperature in mountainous areas and in areas with substantial differences between observed and simulated 20th-century climatologies. Although these data sets in principle could be downscaled further, a key practical limitation is the density of observational networks, particularly for precipitation-related variables in tropical mountainous regions. These downscaled data sets can be used for a variety of climate-impact assessments, including assessments of 21st-century climate-change impacts on biodiversity and species distributions.

  7. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  8. Recent Extremes in European Climate: Assessment, Case Studies and Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.; D'Andrea, F.; Cattiaux, J.; Naveau, P.; Ciais, P.; Garnier, E.

    2008-12-01

    During the last centuries and up to the present decade, extreme climate events have certainly had larger economic impacts than any trend of temperature in Europe. In addition to an intrinsic scientific interest, their study is thus essential for society. One of the challenges of their investigation is that, depending on their definition, extreme climate events potentially have a behavior that is not connected to the secular temperature trend in a simple fashion. This presentation will review the statistical assessments of extremes in Europe, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and their connections with large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. In particular, the questions of modeling their severity and frequency will be discussed in the first part of the presentation. I will then give two kinds of examples of European climate extremes: summer heatwaves and droughts, and winter warm waves. The mechanisms leading to such phenomena will be explored, and I will examine some of the impacts on the biosphere that were recently observed. In order to provide a long term perspective of those events, examples of historical droughts in France will be presented and connected with proxy records of temperature. It appears that the mechanisms that are favored for present-day climate might still have been valid during the past centuries. To conclude, new challenges for dynamical and statistical modeling will be explored.

  9. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a ba

  10. Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Semadeni-Davies, A

    2003-01-01

    Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.

  11. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Deborah Imel

    2003-05-01

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts.

  13. Parametric assessment of climate change impacts of automotive material substitution.

    PubMed

    Geyer, Roland

    2008-09-15

    Quantifying the net climate change impact of automotive material substitution is not a trivial task. It requires the assessment of the mass reduction potential of automotive materials, the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from their production and recycling, and their impact on GHG emissions from vehicle use. The model presented in this paper is based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and completely parameterized, i.e., its computational structure is separated from the required input data, which is not traditionally done in LCAs. The parameterization increases scientific rigor and transparency of the assessment methodology, facilitates sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the results, and also makes it possible to compare different studies and explain their disparities. The state of the art of the modeling methodology is reviewed and advanced. Assessment of the GHG emission impacts of material recycling through consequential system expansion shows that our understanding of this issue is still incomplete. This is a critical knowledge gap since a case study shows thatfor materials such as aluminum, the GHG emission impacts of material production and recycling are both of the same size as the use phase savings from vehicle mass reduction.

  14. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    adaptation, mitigation and post-hazard recovery and resettlement measures. Providing basic necessities such as water, food and power, maintaining public health, implementing protective measures in the coastal zones and modifications in the urban infrastructure, especially in the coastal megacities become expensive. Impact of extremes on rails, roads and building are also becoming a major issue in the coastal zones and urban centres. Industrial sector is facing a threat from the falling reliable supply of water and power. However, procedure for the implementation of the strategies to mitigate the climate change impact and of the policy for the adaptation to climate change is slow. There are several hurdles for this, including various ecological, socio-economic, technical and political issues, alterations of the physical environment, inability of certain habitats and species to adapt to a new environment, abject poverty, lack of awareness, and the inefficient administrative mechanism. A comprehensive assessment of the shifts in regional climate and the impact of climate change on different facets of life in India, and of the current strategies and polices to face such challenges is made in this study. Suggestions for the improvement of the climate policy and adaptation strategy have been provided.

  15. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  16. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  17. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is a workshop titled Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

  18. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Mearns, L.; Anderson, C.; Bader, D.; Buonomo, E.; Caya, D.; Duffy, P.; Elguindi, N.; Giorgi, F.; Gutowski, W.; Held, I.; Nunes, A.; Jones, R.; Laprise, R.; Leung, L. R.; Middleton, D.; Moufouma-Okia, W.; Nychka, D.; Qian, Y.; Roads, J.; Sain, S.; Snyder, M.; Sloan, L.; Takle, E.

    2006-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). NARCCAP is using six nested regional climate models at 50 km resolution to dynamically downscale realizations of current climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2041-2070, following the A2 SRES emission scenario) from four AOGCMs. Global time slice simulations, also at 50 km resolution, will be performed using the GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3 atmospheric models forced by the AOGCM sea surface temperatures and will be compared with results of the regional models. Results from this multiple-RCM, multiple-AOGCM suite will be statistically analyzed to investigate the cascade of uncertainty as one type of model draws information from another. All output will be made available to the climate analysis and climate impacts assessment communities through an archiving and data distribution plan. The climate impacts community will have these data at unprecedented spatial and temporal (hourly to six-hourly) resolution to support decision-relevant evaluations for public policy. As part of our evaluation of uncertainties, simulations are presently being concluded that nest the participating RCMs within reanalyses of observations. These simulations can be viewed as nesting the RCMs within a GCM that is nearly perfect (constrained by available observations), allowing us to separate errors attributable to the RCMs from those attributable to the driving AOGCMs. Results to date indicate that skill is greater in winter than in summer, and greater for temperature than for precipitation. Temperature and precipitation errors

  19. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-10-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  20. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This assessment strengthens and expands our understanding of climate-related health impacts by providing a more definitive description of climate-related health burdens in the United States. It builds on the 2014 USGCRP National Climate Assessment and reviews and synthesizes key ...

  1. The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    This assessment strengthens and expands our understanding of climate-related health impacts by providing a more definitive description of climate-related health burdens in the United States. It builds on the 2014 USGCRP National Climate Assessment and reviews and synthesizes key ...

  2. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  3. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  4. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  5. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

  6. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods.

  7. From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing

  8. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2012-11-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  9. Regional Climate Modeling at ZAMG and climate impact assessment for European ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, I.; Zuvela-Aloise, M.; Matulla, C.

    2010-09-01

    The Austrian society, policy, economy and environment request information on changes in the climate during the last years and especially for the near and remote future. Floodings, landslides, snow avalanches and storms belong to the natural hazards that highly impact Austria's socio-economic and environmental systems. In addition to already applied empirical regional modeling at ZAMG there was started dynamical regional climate modeling (RCM) with the COSMOS-CLM (CCLM, http://www.clm-community.eu/) at ZAMG in 2009. The main objective of the Austrian national project "reclip:century" (in cooperation with other Austrian Institutes) is to provide high resolved data sets of climate simulations for the GAR. A one-way double nesting approach is used. The domain used in the first step is Europe with a spatial resolution of 0.44° (50km). Within this simulation the GAR domain is nested having a resolution of 0.09° (10km). The output of these simulations will be evaluated within the project EVACLIM. This is to be done by comparing the output with a variety of regional scale observational datasets. The results of the simulations will be made available to the impact community. Within the international based project HABIT-CHANGE 10km-resolution climate scenarios will be generated. The data sets produced for two different regions the GAR and the Danube Delta - shall be used as a basis for the work of hydrology modelers and for the development of strategies for adaptation and mitigation Based on the CCLM simulations at ZAMG of about 0.03° (4km) spatial resolution for the Northeast of Austria, the project DISTURBANCE aims to develop integrated models for temperate Alpine forest ecosystems. Important tasks for the forest modeling are not only the assessment of changes in temperature, drought and windstorms but also the interactions between wind damages and bark beetle development which might impact the forest structure and its composition of species. In the project DATAPHEN

  10. Long-term forest monitoring in Switzerland: Assessing climate, climate change impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kraeuchi, N.

    1996-12-31

    This paper discusses successional characteristics of forest ecosystems as influenced by a changing environment, and it focuses on the potential risks resulting from this change. In the early 90`s, a long-term forest monitoring program has been established in Switzerland. The primary aim of this program is to identify and evaluate changes in the structure and function of selected forest ecosystems. To assess the potential risks arising with changing weather patterns, a total of 15 monitoring plots have been chosen according to different selection criteria, namely site homogeneity and site sensitivity to climate change and air pollution. To assess these risks, FORSUM a forest succession model for Central Europe is applied to analyze the forest succession on the LTFER plots based on the new IPCC 95 climate scenarios. Forest succession models can be used to evaluate climate change impacts on forest ecosystems, even though some parameters are highly uncertain or are even unknown. Detailed analysis of the 15 case studies will help to identify high and low risk forest areas in Switzerland and to evaluate the long-term sustainability of Swiss forest, currently at a risk from a number of anthropogenic and biogenic stresses.

  11. Stochastic Climate Change Scenario Generator: its Use in Probabilistic Climate Change Impact Assessments and in Estimating Missing Climatic Elements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, Martin

    2010-05-01

    The volume of GCM simulations available for climate change impact studies continually increases. This allows for better representation of uncertainties (between GCMs, between emission scenarios, between parameterizations, etc.), but, simultaneously, the volume of available GCM output data has become so large such that it poses a strong requirement for more effective organization of climate change impact analyses. In implementing the multi-model information for a given impact analysis, only scenarios from a subset of all available GCMs are mostly employed. Less frequently, the impact analysis is based on scenarios processed from all of the GCMs. However, this is not applicable in cases where an ensemble of GCM simulations is too large (for example, when dealing with the perturbed-physics ensemble available from climateprediction.net project). In such cases, one may use scenario emulators/generators, which may produce a large set of climate change scenarios representing the whole multivariate probability distribution function of the scenarios. The contribution has three parts. In the first par, the underlying model of the scenario generator is introduced. The generator is based on a multivariate parametric model whose parameters are derived from a set of GCM based scenarios (no limit on the size of the set, the model may also be calibrated with a very large perturbed-physics ensemble). Once calibrated, the generator may produce an arbitrarily large set of climate change scenarios. These scenarios consist of changes in monthly means and variabilities, and are easily linked with the stochastic weather generator M&Rfi, which produces daily weather series to be used as an input to the impact models. The second part is focused on validation of the scenario generator. It is used to make a probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on annual averages and extremes of temperature, precipitation and two Palmer drought indices (Z, PDSI) in 10 European and 11 US stations

  12. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  13. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  14. Climate impacts of bioenergy: Inclusion of carbon cycle and albedo dynamics in life cycle impact assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Bright, Ryan M. Cherubini, Francesco; Stromman, Anders H.

    2012-11-15

    Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be an invaluable tool for the structured environmental impact assessment of bioenergy product systems. However, the methodology's static temporal and spatial scope combined with its restriction to emission-based metrics in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) inhibits its effectiveness at assessing climate change impacts that stem from dynamic land surface-atmosphere interactions inherent to all biomass-based product systems. In this paper, we focus on two dynamic issues related to anthropogenic land use that can significantly influence the climate impacts of bioenergy systems: i) temporary changes to the terrestrial carbon cycle; and ii) temporary changes in land surface albedo-and illustrate how they can be integrated within the LCA framework. In the context of active land use management for bioenergy, we discuss these dynamics and their relevancy and outline the methodological steps that would be required to derive case-specific biogenic CO{sub 2} and albedo change characterization factors for inclusion in LCIA. We demonstrate our concepts and metrics with application to a case study of transportation biofuel sourced from managed boreal forest biomass in northern Europe. We derive GWP indices for three land management cases of varying site productivities to illustrate the importance and need to consider case- or region-specific characterization factors for bioenergy product systems. Uncertainties and limitations of the proposed metrics are discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A method for including temporary surface albedo and carbon cycle changes in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) is elaborated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Concepts are applied to a single bioenergy case whereby a range of feedstock productivities are shown to influence results. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Results imply that case- and site-specific characterization factors can be essential for a more informed impact assessment. Black

  15. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  16. Climate impacts on arctic freshwater ecosystems and fisheries: background, rationale and approach of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA).

    PubMed

    Wrona, Frederick J; Prowse, Terry D; Reist, James D; Hobbie, John E; Lévesque, Lucie M J; Vincent, Warwick F

    2006-11-01

    Changes in climate and ultraviolet radiation levels in the Arctic will have far-reaching impacts, affecting aquatic species at various trophic levels, the physical and chemical environment that makes up their habitat, and the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems. Interactions of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, with freshwater ecosystems are highly complex and can propagate through the ecosystem in ways that are difficult to project. This is partly due to a poor understanding of arctic freshwater systems and their basic interrelationships with climate and other environmental variables, and partly due to a paucity of long-term freshwater monitoring sites and integrated hydro-ecological research programs in the Arctic. The papers in this special issue are an abstraction of the analyses performed by 25 international experts and their associated networks on Arctic freshwater hydrology and related aquatic ecosystems that was initially published by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) in 2005 as "Chapter 8--Freshwater Ecosystems and Fisheries". The papers provide a broad overview of the general hydrological and ecological features of the various freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic, including descriptions of each ACIA region, followed by a review of historical changes in freshwater systems during the Holocene. This is followed by an assessment of the effects of climate change on broad-scale hydro-ecology; aquatic biota and ecosystem structure and function; and arctic fish and fisheries. Potential synergistic and cumulative effects are also discussed, as are the roles of ultraviolet radiation and contaminants. The nature and complexity of many of the effects are illustrated using case studies from around the circumpolar north, together with a discussion of important threshold responses (i.e., those that produce stepwise and/or nonlinear effects). The issue concludes with summary the key findings, a list of gaps in

  17. Second California Assessment: Integrated climate change impacts assessment of natural and managed systems. Guest editorial

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D.R.; Moser, S.; Hanemann, M.; Jones, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Since 2006 the scientific community in California, in cooperation with resource managers, has been conducting periodic statewide studies about the potential impacts of climate change on natural and managed systems. This Special Issue is a compilation of revised papers that originate from the most recent assessment that concluded in 2009. As with the 2006 studies that influenced the passage of California's landmark Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32), these papers have informed policy formulation at the state level, helping bring climate adaptation as a complementary measure to mitigation. We provide here a brief introduction to the papers included in this Special Issue focusing on how they are coordinated and support each other. We describe the common set of downscaled climate and sea-level rise scenarios used in this assessment that came from six different global climate models (GCMs) run under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: B1 (low emissions) and A2 (a medium-high emissions). Recommendations for future state assessments, some of which are being implemented in an on-going new assessment that will be completed in 2012, are offered. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  18. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Basin-wide Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mekong ecosystems are under pressure from a number of "drivers", including rapid economic development, population growth, unsustainable resource use, and climate change. Ecological modeling can help assess vulnerability and impacts of these drivers on the Lower Mekong Basin.

  20. Basin-wide Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mekong ecosystems are under pressure from a number of "drivers", including rapid economic development, population growth, unsustainable resource use, and climate change. Ecological modeling can help assess vulnerability and impacts of these drivers on the Lower Mekong Basin.

  1. Sea Extremes: Integrated impact assessment in coastal climate adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Broge, Niels; Molgaard, Mads; Andersen, Ole

    2016-04-01

    We investigate effects of sea level rise and a change in precipitation pattern on coastal flooding hazards. Historic and present in situ and satellite data of water and groundwater levels, precipitation, vertical ground motion, geology, and geotechnical soil properties are combined with flood protection measures, topography, and infrastructure to provide a more complete picture of the water-related impact from climate change at an exposed coastal location. Results show that future sea extremes evaluated from extreme value statistics may, indeed, have a large impact. The integrated effects from future storm surges and other geo- and hydro-parameters need to be considered in order to provide for the best protection and mitigation efforts, however. Based on the results we present and discuss a simple conceptual model setup that can e.g. be used for 'translation' of regional sea level rise evidence and projections to concrete impact measures. This may be used by potentially affected stakeholders -often working in different sectors and across levels of governance, in a common appraisal of the challenges faced ahead. The model may also enter dynamic tools to evaluate local impact as sea level research advances and projections for the future are updated.

  2. Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

    PubMed

    Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

    2016-10-01

    Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

  3. The sensitivity of agricultural impacts assessment to climate data and scenario methodologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector are crucially important from the farm- to global levels. While impacts assessments have made wide and creative use of data products, climate models, and methods for downscaling and scenario generation, this variety also hinders our ability to compare impacts from one study to other assessments. The unique nature of many impacts assessments is especially problematic when evaluating the impacts of climate change on large agricultural regions and global production; a crucial scale in understanding the economic impacts and market influence on food security and land use. This presentation examines the influence of methodological choices on agricultural impacts assessment by describing results from several projects. First, the utility of a wide variety of global and regional observational data products are compared for an agricultural system in the Florida Panhandle to determine the influence of observational uncertainties, reanalysis products, remotely sensed information, and downscaled models on impacts assessment. Second, the role of future climate scenarios is isolated by running the same Panhandle station with scenarios generated through a variety of generation methods with a focus on downscaling methodologies and the climate statistics allowed to change. Finally, an ensemble of weather generators are compared across an ensemble of wheat models in a variety of major agricultural regions, isolating important sensitivities in the crop models and corresponding strengths and weaknesses in the weather generators.

  4. Assessment of climate change impact on floodplain and hydrologic ecotones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradkhani, Hamid; Baird, Ruben G.; Wherry, Susan A.

    2010-12-01

    SummaryCurrent modeling efforts continue to indicate that the effects of climate change will be both global and local in scale, and that ecohydrologic factors including vegetation pattern, altered precipitation events, reduced system yields due to streamflow changes, increased flooding and changes to current floodplain characteristics will be affected. Therefore, using technology such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, using future general circulation model (GCM) data, and conducting floodplain analyses to predict the changes to ecohydrologic factors are critical for cataloging existing ecosystem resources and for understanding the effects that different climate change scenarios may have on these resources at the basin scale. This study considers the effects of three different GCM climate change emissions scenarios (high from the IPSL GCM's A2 scenario, middle from the ECHAM5 GCM's A2 scenario and low from the GISS GCM's B1 scenario) using daily downscaled precipitation and temperature data over the Lower Tualatin basin in the Pacific Northwest US. The Tualatin River basin is a dynamic watershed that supports urban and agricultural uses and is also 50% forested. Its economic drivers include agricultural and forest products, as well as other consumer products including high-tech software and hardware industries. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software was used as a distributed hydrologic model to predict the daily flows in the basin. It is predicted the 50-year recurrence interval (RI) flow will decrease significantly for the low and middle emissions scenarios (to between approximately 18,000-19,000 cfs compared to the observed 50-year RI of near 26,000 cfs) and will increase significantly under the high emissions scenario to nearly 33,000 cfs. Floodplain extents for the various climate scenarios and timeframes were delineated using the HEC-RAS model. A geo-processing procedure was employed to delineate hydrologic ecotones to evaluate the

  5. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  6. A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA has released this draft document solely for the purpose of pre-dissemination peer review under applicable information quality guidelines. This document has not been formally disseminated by EPA. It does not represent and should not be construed to represent any Agency policy or determination. EPA will consider any public comments submitted in accordance with this notice when revising the document. The report is a screening level analysis intended to determine the scope and magnitude of global change impacts rather than a detailed assessment of specific impacts and adaptation measures.

  7. Template for assessing climate change impacts and management options: TACCIMO user guide version 2.2

    Treesearch

    Emrys Treasure; Steven McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Lisa Nicole Jennings

    2014-01-01

    The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a Web-based tool developed by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist Federal, State, and private land managers and planners with evaluation of climate change science implications for sustainable natural resource management. TACCIMO is a dynamic information...

  8. Basin-Wide Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) covers parts of riparian countries of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, Cambodia and Thailand and supports over 60 million people for food and livelihood. Recently, the LMB is threatened by climate change. This paper aims to quantify water yields and sediment retention at current and in short and long-term climate scenarios. The InVEST model was used to spatially assess both ecosystem services. The results indicated that the estimated annual water yield in the entire LMB in 2010 was 639 km3 and the average soil erosion was 43.2 ton/ha/year. In addition, 175 million tons of sediment were predicted to export from the LMB. The predicted annual water yields in 2030 and 2060 derived from a drier overall projection in combination of medium and high emissions indicated a substantial reduction of predicted water yields by 9-24% from the baseline and a reduction of soil erosion of 7-10% was predicted. The effects of the severe drought were forecasted in northern and southern Lao PDR and central Cambodia due to these areas lack of irrigation system. In contrast, the increased seasonality and the wetter rainfall scenarios in connection with high emissions would result in an amplification of 5-26% from the current runoff and would produce greater amount of soil erosion in the watershed and sediment load transported to the outlet. The research results are being embedded in the Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2020. Presented at ACES 2016

  9. Basin-Wide Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) covers parts of riparian countries of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, Cambodia and Thailand and supports over 60 million people for food and livelihood. Recently, the LMB is threatened by climate change. This paper aims to quantify water yields and sediment retention at current and in short and long-term climate scenarios. The InVEST model was used to spatially assess both ecosystem services. The results indicated that the estimated annual water yield in the entire LMB in 2010 was 639 km3 and the average soil erosion was 43.2 ton/ha/year. In addition, 175 million tons of sediment were predicted to export from the LMB. The predicted annual water yields in 2030 and 2060 derived from a drier overall projection in combination of medium and high emissions indicated a substantial reduction of predicted water yields by 9-24% from the baseline and a reduction of soil erosion of 7-10% was predicted. The effects of the severe drought were forecasted in northern and southern Lao PDR and central Cambodia due to these areas lack of irrigation system. In contrast, the increased seasonality and the wetter rainfall scenarios in connection with high emissions would result in an amplification of 5-26% from the current runoff and would produce greater amount of soil erosion in the watershed and sediment load transported to the outlet. The research results are being embedded in the Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2020. Presented at ACES 2016

  10. Experiences with collaborative climate impacts assessments for regional governments in southwestern British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

    2016-12-01

    Infrastructure vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning have created demand for detailed information about climate change and extreme events from local and regional governments. Individual communities often have distinct priorities regarding climate change impacts. While projections from climate models are available to investigate these impacts, they are not always applicable or easily interpreted by local agencies. We discuss a series of climate impacts assessments for several regional and local governments in southwestern British Columbia. Each of the assessments was conducted with input from the users on project definition from the start of the process and on interpretation of results throughout each project. To produce sufficient detail for the assessment regions, we produce high-resolution (800m) simulations of precipitation and temperature using downscaled climate model projections. Sets of derived climate parameters tailored to each region are calculated from both standard indices such as CLIMDEX and from an energy-balance snowpack model. Involving user groups from the beginning of the analysis helps to convey the meaning and confidence of each set of climate change parameters to users and also clarifies what projections are feasible or not for impact assessments. We discuss the different levels of involvement and collaboration with each organization, and the resulting decisions implemented following each of the projects.

  11. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  12. A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lankford-Bingle, Amber J.; Svancara, Leona K.; Vierling, Kerri

    2015-12-01

    We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl ( Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

  13. Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Jönsson, Anna Maria; Anderbrant, Olle; Holmér, Jennie; Johansson, Jacob; Schurgers, Guy; Svensson, Glenn P; Smith, Henrik G

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

  14. Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.

    2016-12-01

    In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.

  15. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  16. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  17. Global water resources assessment at a sub-annual timescale: Application to climate change impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Takahashi, K.; Hijioka, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Several reports have assessed water scarcity globally using the widely accepted withdrawal-to-water resources ratio (hereafter WWR). This index is defined as the ratio of annual withdrawal to the annual renewable water resources (runoff). The index has also been used widely to assess the impact of climate change on global water resources. Here, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the WWR to assess the impact of climate change. Global warming is projected to increase the mean annual runoff in many parts of the world. Therefore, in these regions, the WWR decreases, by definition. However, water scarcity may not always be alleviated in these regions. Global warming is also projected to increase the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, decrease snowfall, and change the timing of snowmelt. These phenomena may increase the temporal gap between water availability and water demand, which might worsen local water scarcity, even if the mean annual runoff is increased. To assess the impact of climate change on global water resources incorporating subannual time-scale phenomena, this study applies a new water scarcity index, the cumulative withdrawal-to-demand ratio (hereafter CWD). This index is defined as the ratio of the accumulation of daily water withdrawal from local water resources to the accumulation of daily water demand. To estimate daily water withdrawal and water demand, we used the state-of-the-art H08 global water resources model. Our results indicated that global warming increased the mean annual runoff in 52% of the total land area globally. However, in 22% of the area where runoff increased, the CWD showed increased water stress. Those regions included India, northern China, and northern Europe. For India, the increase in water stress was attributed to the seasonal gap between runoff increase and water demand. The increased runoff was concentrated in a few months, while the high water demand months differed and were much longer. For Europe

  18. Health consequence scales for use in health impact assessments of climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

    2014-09-16

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed.

  19. Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

    2014-01-01

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

  20. Assessing, Modeling, and Monitoring the Impacts of Extreme Climate Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murnane, Richard J.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2006-01-01

    Extreme weather and climate events provide dramatic content for the news media, and the past few years have supplied plenty of material. The 2004 and 2005 Atlantic hurricane seasons were very active; the United States was struck repeatedly by landfalling major hurricanes. A five-year drought in the southwestern United States was punctuated in 2003 by wildfires in southern California that caused billions of dollars in losses. Ten cyclones of at least tropical storm strength struck Japan in 2004, easily breaking the 1990 and 1993 records of six cyclones each year. Hurricane Catarina was the first recorded hurricane in the South Atlantic. Europe's summer of 2003 saw record-breaking heat that caused tens of thousands of deaths. These events have all been widely publicized, and they naturally raise several questions: Is climate changing, and if so, why? What can we expect in the future? How can we better respond to climate variability regardless of its source?

  1. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  2. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

  3. A multi-model integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change in Washington State

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire Elsner, M.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Miles, E. L.

    2008-12-01

    In April 2007, the State of Washington passed legislation mandating a comprehensive statewide assessment of the impacts of climate change over the next 100 years. The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) is working with Washington State University, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and state agencies to perform an integrated assessment on the effects of climate change for eight statewide sectors: public health, agriculture, the coastal zone, forest ecosystems, salmon, infrastructure, energy, and water supply and management. An additional Climate Scenarios Working Group serves the eight other sectors by providing projections of future regional climate, downscaled to 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the state of Washington. We utilize projections from A1B and B1 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, as simulated by the full suite of 20 GCMs, archived in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In this approach, we apply 40 ensembles of statistically downscaled future climate to drive hydrologic model simulations. Each sector incorporates the projections of climatic and hydrologic variables in their evaluations of the impacts of climate change. Here we present impacts on hydrologic variables (such as snowpack and streamflow), as well as related implications for several of the sectors listed above, over the State of Washington for three periods: the 2020s, 2040s and 2080s. We also discuss CIG's collaboration with multi-stakeholder adaptation working groups to identify potential barriers to adaptation and strategies to address the projected impacts in each sector.

  4. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Drinking Water Treatment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change may affect both surface water and ground water quality. Increases (or decreases) in precipitation and related changes in flow can result in problematic turbidity levels, increased levels of organic matter, high levels of bacteria, virus and parasites and increased...

  5. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Drinking Water Treatment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change may affect both surface water and ground water quality. Increases (or decreases) in precipitation and related changes in flow can result in problematic turbidity levels, increased levels of organic matter, high levels of bacteria, virus and parasites and increased...

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Electric Power Generation in the Western Interconnection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartos, M. D.; Chester, M.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, concerns have grown over the potential impacts of climate change on electricity generation. Water resources are integral to the production of thermoelectric and hydroelectric power, and droughts are expected to become more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting over the course of the twenty-first century. Many generation technologies—including gas turbines and solar cells—are also vulnerable to changes in local climatic conditions like ambient air temperature. As extreme weather becomes more common, methods are needed to assess the impacts of climate change on regional power systems. However, these methods must also account for (1) heterogeneity in generation technologies, and (2) local variation in climatic conditions. This study uses a physically-based modeling system to assess the vulnerability of electric power infrastructure in the Western Interconnection. Climatic and hydrologic parameters relevant to power generation are identified for six generation technologies. Downscaled climate forcings are then used as inputs to a physically-based modeling system, consisting of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and the RBM one-dimensional stream temperature model. Impacts to generating capacity are estimated directly from changes in modeled climatic and hydrologic parameters, using functional relationships unique to each generating technology. A preliminary analysis of 1,302 power stations in the Western Interconnection reveals decreases in summertime generating capacity of 8-22%, with the largest impacts occurring at thermoelectric and hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest and California. Impacts to base-load thermoelectric plants are mitigated by recirculating cooling systems, which reduce the performance penalty of low flows and high water temperatures. Climate impacts on solar and wind capacity are relatively small, indicating that these energy sources may play a more prominent role as conventional generation

  7. An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

    2008-12-01

    Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

  8. Assessment of climate change impact on phenology dynamic in Vojvodina region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lalic, B.; Mihailovic, D. T.

    2009-09-01

    Global climate change is a continuous process that needs to be taken seriously, even though there are large uncertainties in its spatial and temporal distribution. One important bio tracer of climate change presence and magnitude is plant phenology dynamic. However, response of different plant communities to changing climate will vary across the regions and ecosystems but it will never fail. Therefore, on regional or farm level, observed phenology dynamic can be exploited as a measure of climate change impact, or expected climate change can be used in order to assess possible changes in plant growth dynamic. Nevertheless, phenology doesn't provide only date of flowering or emergence but also implies timing of farm operations as well as pest and disease dynamic. As an element of climate change impact study for Northern Serbia region in the framework of ADAGIO project, trend of plant phenology dynamic has been calculated. Climate data series of further climate were obtained using HadCM3, ECHAM5 and NCAR-PCM climate models. Statistical downscaling to smaller temporal scale was provided using Met&Roll weather generator. Time of phenological stages appearance was calculated for wheat and selected fruit varieties.

  9. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  10. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-04-15

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  11. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  12. Toward a Simple Probabilistic GCM Emulator for Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sue Wing, I.; Tebaldi, C.; Nychka, D. W.; Winkler, J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate emulators can bridge spatial scales in integrated assessment in ways that allow us to take advantage of the evolving understanding of the impacts of climate change. The spatial scales at which climate impacts occur are much finer than those of the "damage functions" in integrated assessment models (IAMs), which incorporate reduced form climate models to project changes in global mean temperature, and estimate aggregate damages directly from that. Advancing the state of IA modeling requires methods to generate—in a flexible and computationally efficient manner—future changes in climate variables at the geographic scales at which individual impact endpoints can be resolved. The state of the art uses outputs of global climate models (GCMs) forced by warming scenarios to drive impact calculations. However, downstream integrated assessments are perforce "locked-in" to the particular GCM x warming scenario combinations that generated the meteorological fields of interest—it is not possible assess risk due to the absence of probabilities over warming scenarios or model uncertainty. The availability of reduced-form models which can efficiently simulate the envelope of the response of multiple GCMs to a given amount of warming provides us with capability to create probabilistic projections of fine-scale of meteorological changes conditional on global mean temperature change to drive impact calculations in ways that permit risk assessments. This presentation documents a prototype probabilistic climate emulator for use as a GCM diagnostic tool and a driver of climate change impact assessments. We use a regression-based approach to construct multi-model global patterns for changes in temperature and precipitation from the CMIP3 archive. Crucially, regression residuals are used to derive a spatial covariance function of the model- and scenario-dependent deviations from the average pattern. By sampling from this manifold we can rapidly generate many realizations of

  13. An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) Hospitals, Wildfires Highest Priority.

    PubMed

    Adelaine, Sabrina A; Sato, Mizuki; Jin, Yufang; Godwin, Hilary

    2017-10-01

    Introduction Although many studies have delineated the variety and magnitude of impacts that climate change is likely to have on health, very little is known about how well hospitals are poised to respond to these impacts. Hypothesis/Problem The hypothesis is that most modern hospitals in urban areas in the United States need to augment their current disaster planning to include climate-related impacts. Using Los Angeles County (California USA) as a case study, historical data for emergency department (ED) visits and projections for extreme-heat events were used to determine how much climate change is likely to increase ED visits by mid-century for each hospital. In addition, historical data about the location of wildfires in Los Angeles County and projections for increased frequency of both wildfires and flooding related to sea-level rise were used to identify which area hospitals will have an increased risk of climate-related wildfires or flooding at mid-century. Only a small fraction of the total number of predicted ED visits at mid-century would likely to be due to climate change. By contrast, a significant portion of hospitals in Los Angeles County are in close proximity to very high fire hazard severity zones (VHFHSZs) and would be at greater risk to wildfire impacts as a result of climate change by mid-century. One hospital in Los Angeles County was anticipated to be at greater risk due to flooding by mid-century as a result of climate-related sea-level rise. This analysis suggests that several Los Angeles County hospitals should focus their climate-change-related planning on building resiliency to wildfires. Adelaine SA , Sato M , Jin Y , Godwin H . An assessment of climate change impacts on Los Angeles (California USA) hospitals, wildfires highest priority. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):556-562.

  14. Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations.

    PubMed

    Grosbois, V; Gimenez, O; Gaillard, J M; Pradel, R; Barbraud, C; Clobert, J; Møller, A P; Weimerskirch, H

    2008-08-01

    The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the

  15. Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options in Vulnerable Agro-Landscapes in East-Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manful, D.; Tscherning, K.; Kersebaum, K.; Dietz, J.; Dietrich, O.; Gomani, C.; Böhm, H.; Büchner, M.; Lischeid, G.,; Ojoyi, M.,

    2009-04-01

    Climate change poses a risk to the livelihoods of large populations in the developing world, especially in Africa. In East Africa, climate change is expected to affect the spatial distribution and quantity of precipitation. The proposed project will assess aspects of climate impacts and adaptation options in Tanzania. The project will attempt to quantify (1) projected impacts including: variability in temperature, rainfall, flooding and drought (2) the affect changes in 1. will have on specific sectors namely agriculture (food security), water resources and ecosystem services. The cumulative effects of diminished surface and ground water flow on agricultural production coupled with increasing demand for food due to increase in human pressure will also be evaluated. Expected outputs of the project include (1) downscaled climate change scenarios for different IPCC emission scenarios (2) model based estimations of climate change impacts on hydrological cycle and assessment of land use options (3) scenarios of sustainable livelihoods and resilient agro-landscapes under climate change (4) assessment of adaptive practices and criteria for best adaptation practices. The presentation will focus on novel approaches that focus on the use of agro-ecosystem models to predict local and regional impacts of climate variability on food with specific needs of the end-user factored into model set-up process. In other words, model configurations adapted to the information needs of a specific end-user or audience are evaluated. The perception of risk within different end-users (small scale farmer versus a regional or state level policy maker) are explicitly taken into consideration with the overarching aim of maximizing the impact of the results obtained from computer-based simulations.

  16. Using Different Spatial Scales of Climate Data for Regional Climate Impact Assessment: Effect on Crop Modeling Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Trabucco, A.; Montesarchio, M.; Mercogliano, P.; Spano, D.

    2015-12-01

    The high vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate conditions causes serious concern regarding climate change impacts on crop development and production, particularly in vulnerable areas like the Mediterranean Basin. Crop simulation models are the most common tools applied for the assessment of such impacts on crop development and yields, both at local and regional scales. However, the use of these models in regional impact studies requires spatial input data for weather, soil, management, etc, whose resolution could affect simulation results. Indeed, the uncertainty in projecting climate change impacts on crop phenology and yield at the regional scale is affected not only by the uncertainty related to climate models and scenarios, but also by the downscaling methods and the resolution of climate data. The aim of this study was the evaluation of the effects of spatial resolutions of climate projections in estimating maturity date and grain yield for different varieties of durum wheat, common wheat and maize in Italy. The simulations were carried out using the CSM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize crop models included in the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, parameterized and evaluated in different experimental sites located in Italy. Dynamically downscaled climate data at different resolutions and different RCP scenarios were used as input in the crop models. A spatial platform, DSSAT-CSM based, developed in R programming language was applied to perform the simulation of maturity date and grain yield for durum wheat, common wheat and maize in each grid cell. Results, analyzed at the national and regional level, will be discussed.

  17. Application of Water Resources System Dynamics Modeling to Climate Change Impact Assessment for Sustainable Rural Community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Tung, C.

    2013-12-01

    Under the impact of climate change, water resources management meets seriously problems. In order to response the impacts on water resources caused by climate change, the research topic regarding multiple water resources receives many attentions. In addition to traditional water resources, new water resources may raise the water use efficiency and reduce the demand loadings on the external water supply systems. Therefore, sustainable rural community can install reuse system and constructed wetland to provide harvested rainwater and reclaimed water as a distributed water supply system. For managing the water resources system in a rural community, the development of simulation model can provide information on water resources management. In this study, the water resource system dynamics model is applied to impact assessment of climate change, and the indicator system is used in evaluating the vulnerability and resilience of water resources system under climate change. The factors lead model uncertainty and high sensitively is identified. Overall, they are further used to evaluate the adaptive capacity of a rural community installing reuse system and constructed wetland under climate change. According the results, adaptation measures can be provided for adjusting water management strategies, which can let sustainable rural community have stable water supply under climate change. Besides, the results provide suggestions regarding an appropriate water resources distribution in a rural community. At last, this study also addresses the requirements for the future research to assess the optimal design for sustainable rural community.

  18. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    PubMed Central

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

  19. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  20. Short-term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

    Treesearch

    Peter Caldwell; Catalina Segura; Shelby Gull Laird; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Maria Sandercock; Johnny Boggs; James M. Vose

    2015-01-01

    Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we...

  1. ASSESSING THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO, U.S.A

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper uses a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate the water quality impacts of future climate change in the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed in southwestern Ohio. The LMR watershed, the principal source of drinking water for 1.6 mi...

  2. Assessing climate variability impact on thermotolerant coliform bacteria in surface water

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This study investigated the impacts of climate variability on fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) transport in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the UPRW using observed flow and FCB concentrations. The SWAT hydrologic model was ...

  3. ASSESSING THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTHWESTERN OHIO, U.S.A

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper uses a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to simulate the water quality impacts of future climate change in the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed in southwestern Ohio. The LMR watershed, the principal source of drinking water for 1.6 mi...

  4. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical garden.…

  5. Climate Change Education: Quantitatively Assessing the Impact of a Botanical Garden as an Informal Learning Environment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sellmann, Daniela; Bogner, Franz X.

    2013-01-01

    Although informal learning environments have been studied extensively, ours is one of the first studies to quantitatively assess the impact of learning in botanical gardens on students' cognitive achievement. We observed a group of 10th graders participating in a one-day educational intervention on climate change implemented in a botanical garden.…

  6. A global economic assessment of city policies to reduce climate change impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2017-06-01

    Climate change impacts can be especially large in cities. Several large cities are taking climate change into account in long-term strategies, for which it is important to have information on the costs and benefits of adaptation. Studies on climate change impacts in cities mostly focus on a limited set of countries and risks, for example sea-level rise, health and water resources. Most of these studies are qualitative, except for the costs of sea-level rise in cities. These impact estimates do not take into account that large cities will experience additional warming due to the urban heat island effect, that is, the change of local climate patterns caused by urbanization. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the economic costs of the joint impacts of local and global climate change for all main cities around the world. Cost-benefit analyses are presented of urban heat island mitigation options, including green and cool roofs and cool pavements. It is shown that local actions can be a climate risk-reduction instrument. Furthermore, limiting the urban heat island through city adaptation plans can significantly amplify the benefits of international mitigation efforts.

  7. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Climate Impact Assessment for Pacific Northwest Agricultural Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MU, J.; Antle, J. M.; Zhang, H.; Capalbo, S. M.; Eigenbrode, S.; Kruger, C.; Stockle, C.; Wolfhorst, J. D.

    2013-12-01

    Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) are projections of plausible future biophysical and socio-economic conditions used to carry out climate impact assessments for agriculture. The development of RAPs iss motivated by the fact that the various global and regional models used for agricultural climate change impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation or public availability. These practices have hampered attempts at model inter-comparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. This paper aims to (1) present RAPs developed for the principal wheat-producing region of the Pacific Northwest, and to (2) combine these RAPs with downscaled climate data, crop model simulations and economic model simulations to assess climate change impacts on winter wheat production and farm income. This research was carried out as part of a project funded by the USDA known as the Regional Approaches to Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest (REACCH). The REACCH study region encompasses the major winter wheat production area in Pacific Northwest and preliminary research shows that farmers producing winter wheat could benefit from future climate change. However, the future world is uncertain in many dimensions, including commodity and input prices, production technology, and policies, as well as increased probability of disturbances (pests and diseases) associated with a changing climate. Many of these factors cannot be modeled, so they are represented in the regional RAPS. The regional RAPS are linked to global agricultural and shared social-economic pathways, and used along with climate change projections to simulate future outcomes for the wheat-based farms in the REACCH region.

  8. Integrated assessment of climate change impact on surface runoff contamination by pesticides.

    PubMed

    Gagnon, Patrick; Sheedy, Claudia; Rousseau, Alain N; Bourgeois, Gaétan; Chouinard, Gérald

    2016-07-01

    Pesticide transport by surface runoff depends on climate, agricultural practices, topography, soil characteristics, crop type, and pest phenology. To accurately assess the impact of climate change, these factors must be accounted for in a single framework by integrating their interaction and uncertainty. This article presents the development and application of a framework to assess the impact of climate change on pesticide transport by surface runoff in southern Québec (Canada) for the 1981-2040 period. The crop enemies investigated were: weeds for corn (Zea mays); and for apple orchard (Malus pumila), 3 insect pests (codling moth [Cydia pomonella], plum curculio [Conotrachelus nenuphar], and apple maggot [Rhagoletis pomonella]), 2 diseases (apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and fire blight [Erwinia amylovora]). A total of 23 climate simulations, 19 sites, and 11 active ingredients were considered. The relationship between climate and phenology was accounted for by bioclimatic models of the Computer Centre for Agricultural Pest Forecasting (CIPRA) software. Exported loads of pesticides were evaluated at the edge-of-field scale using the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), simulating both hydrology and chemical transport. A stochastic model was developed to account for PRZM parameter uncertainty. Results of this study indicate that for the 2011-2040 period, application dates would be advanced from 3 to 7 days on average with respect to the 1981-2010 period. However, the impact of climate change on maximum daily rainfall during the application window is not statistically significant, mainly due to the high variability of extreme rainfall events. Hence, for the studied sites and crop enemies considered, climate change impact on pesticide transported in surface runoff is not statistically significant throughout the 2011-2040 period. Integr Environ Assess Managem 2016;12:559-571. © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2015; Published 2015 SETAC. © Her Majesty the

  9. The impact of climate change on water resources: Assessment at the scale of the Indian subcontinent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Olsson, Jonas; Bosshard, Thomas; Sharma, Devesh; Sharma, Kc; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    The large increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has led to the global climate change phenomenon which is expected to have a strong impact on water resources on local, regional and global scales. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to climate change since the region is characterized by a strong hydro-climatic gradient due to monsoon and the geographic features, and hence poses extraordinary challenges to understand, quantify and predict future availability in water resources. In here, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different emission scenarios allows for the definition of uncertainty of future impacts. Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the DBS (Distribution Based Scaling) method and used to force the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. In addition, we assess the changes on high and low flows from all river systems as well as the changes in the annual cycles. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the hydrological impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate projection. In general, results from all scenarios indicate a -20 to +50% change in long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, yet a higher change (-100 to +100%) in runoff. Analysis of annual cycles showed that climate change impacts vary between seasons whereas the effect is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Future scenarios project a graduate increase in temperature from 1 up to 76°C on average, which further affects the need for irrigation and snow

  10. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    PubMed Central

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  11. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    PubMed

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-06-25

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change.

  12. Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iglesias, A.

    2011-12-01

    The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed

  13. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    PubMed

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments.

    PubMed

    Bierwagen, Britta G; Theobald, David M; Pyke, Christopher R; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V; Morefield, Philip

    2010-12-07

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available.

  15. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments

    PubMed Central

    Bierwagen, Britta G.; Theobald, David M.; Pyke, Christopher R.; Choate, Anne; Groth, Philip; Thomas, John V.; Morefield, Philip

    2010-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on people and the environment requires an understanding of the dynamics of both climate and land use/land cover changes. A range of future climate scenarios is available for the conterminous United States that have been developed based on widely used international greenhouse gas emissions storylines. Climate scenarios derived from these emissions storylines have not been matched with logically consistent land use/cover maps for the United States. This gap is a critical barrier to conducting effective integrated assessments. This study develops novel national scenarios of housing density and impervious surface cover that are logically consistent with emissions storylines. Analysis of these scenarios suggests that combinations of climate and land use/cover can be important in determining environmental conditions regulated under the Clean Air and Clean Water Acts. We found significant differences in patterns of habitat loss and the distribution of potentially impaired watersheds among scenarios, indicating that compact development patterns can reduce habitat loss and the number of impaired watersheds. These scenarios are also associated with lower global greenhouse gas emissions and, consequently, the potential to reduce both the drivers of anthropogenic climate change and the impacts of changing conditions. The residential housing and impervious surface datasets provide a substantial first step toward comprehensive national land use/land cover scenarios, which have broad applicability for integrated assessments as these data and tools are publicly available. PMID:21078956

  16. Can comprehensive climate impact assessment of terrestrial ecosystems be included in Life Cycle Assessment to support policy decisions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bright, R. M.; Cherubini, F.; Strømman, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Decisions resulting in land use change (LUC) or land management change (LMC) rarely consider the changes to surface biophysical properties that lead to immediate land-atmosphere feedbacks and subsequent local- to regional-scale climate changes. This is likely because the sign and magnitude of the various feedback mechanisms depend largely on a multitude of highly site-specific meteorological, eco-physiological, structural, and topographic factors, making them difficult to quantify in the absence of sophisticated models with high spatial and temporal resolution. In a world increasingly dependent on biomass (and thus land) resources for energy and materials, it is unacceptable to continue ignoring important biogeophysical factors linked to land use activities in climate impact assessment studies. Although a number of useful land-atmosphere impact assessment methodologies and metrics have been proposed in recent years, they are rarely applied in the decision making process. Over the last 10-15 years, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) has emerged as a prominent decision-support tool that relies on well-established IPCC climate metrics, yet land-atmosphere climate metrics are rarely applied. Here, we present a review of the literature enveloping methods and metrics for quantifying or characterizing climate change impacts in terrestrial ecosystems. We highlight their merits and discuss practical limitations with respect to their integration into the LCA framework. We conclude by proposing some solutions for overcoming the integration barrier and suggest some practical ways forward for both climate modelers/metric developers and LCA practitioners.

  17. Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

  18. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  19. Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

  20. The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-11-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.

  1. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water-Energy Nexus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mo, W.; Jacobs, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Water-energy nexus refers to the fact that a lot of energy is used for treating and delivering water, and a large amount of water is needed for energy production. This interrelation reinforces water and energy consumptions and challenges the sustainable management of both resources in light of growing population, developing economy, and dwindling resources. Climate change often exacerbates the negative effects of the water-energy nexus by intervening water and energy allocation, availability, and quality, forcing communities to seek more energy dependent alternative water sources and/or more water dependent alternative energy sources. The climate-water-energy interrelations play an important role in water and energy management, yet our understandings on the interactions between climate and the water-energy nexus are still very limited. Therefore, this study aims at qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change from the water-energy nexus perspective by investigating previous literatures, case studies, climate change patterns, and recent extreme climate events. Management difficulties resulted from climate related source shifts as well as policy and regulation changes will be illustrated and discussed. Research needs and gaps on the climate-water-energy interrelations will be addressed.

  2. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling

    DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

    Dale, V. H.; Rauscher, H. M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  3. Assessing impacts of climate change on forests: The state of biological modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Rauscher, H.M.

    1993-04-06

    Models that address the impacts to forests of climate change are reviewed by four levels of biological organization: global, regional or landscape, community, and tree. The models are compared as to their ability to assess changes in greenhouse gas flux, land use, maps of forest type or species composition, forest resource productivity, forest health, biodiversity, and wildlife habitat. No one model can address all of these impacts, but landscape transition models and regional vegetation and land-use models consider the largest number of impacts. Developing landscape vegetation dynamics models of functional groups is suggested as a means to integrate the theory of both landscape ecology and individual tree responses to climate change. Risk assessment methodologies can be adapted to deal with the impacts of climate change at various spatial and temporal scales. Four areas of research development are identified: (1) linking socioeconomic and ecologic models, (2) interfacing forest models at different scales, (3) obtaining data on susceptibility of trees and forest to changes in climate and disturbance regimes, and (4) relating information from different scales.

  4. Enhancing Communication of Climate Impacts Assessments: Examples of Local Stories, Animations and Video.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzpatrick, M. F.; Grigholm, B. O.

    2014-12-01

    Comprehensive climate impacts assessments are important vehicles for conveying salient information to the public and policy makers. However, over the last few decades communication of this important information has been hampered for a number of reasons. Firstly, we have a rapidly changing social media landscape, where there are fewer opportunities for in-depth treatment of issues. To compete in this arena, climate information needs to be packaged in sound bites, and much of the nuance and complexity may be lost. Secondly, scientific literacy among the general U.S. population is not particularly high, which creates a barrier to understanding and limits the audiences that can be reached. Thirdly, climate science has been undermined by misinformation over many years often funded by fossil fuel interests. While this latter obstacle is clearly diminishing - largely in the face of evidence from the undeniable climate impacts that are already being seen by communities - there has been much confusion generated to date. Despite the fact that 97% of active climate scientists agree that the planet is warming as a result of human greenhouse gas emission, only 42% of the U.S. population agrees (Pew Research, 2013). In the face of these challenges, much of the work that the Union of Concerned Scientists does to translate climate impacts assessments has shifted to visuals, animations, and videos that people can relate to and connect with more readily. In this session we will share some of the general design features, discuss target audiences, and outline production limitations of several local stories involving videos and animations, as well as present some recent infographics. One example of this work are case studies that focus on sea level rise and involve a local personality who can speak to climate impacts at the community level. We understand the power of visual images and stories in creating messages that stick, and we use this in designing animations that explain the

  5. Assessment of climate change impacts on diffuse nutrient and pesticide fluxes at the watershed scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arabi, M.; Records, R.; Ahmadi, M.

    2012-12-01

    The study aims to assess the potential impacts of the changing climate on pollutant fluxes including sediment, phosphorus, nitrogen, and atrazine at the watershed scale over the 21st century. Specific objectives are (i) to understand changes in climatic conditions under a comprehensive set of 112 climate projections consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC-SRES) emission pathways and models; (ii) to fully enumerate and synthesize hydrologic and water quality responses to projected climate scenarios; and (iii) to investigate changes in dissolved and particulate water quality constituents. These objectives were investigated in a predominantly agricultural watershed in the Midwestern United States. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was utilized to represent processes governing hydrology and water quality within the watershed. The SWAT model was driven with a suite of 112 distinct dynamically downscaled climate projections representing IPCC-SERES low, moderate, and high greenhouse gas emission pathways. Statistical downscaling procedures were used to derive daily climatic values for meteorological stations in the study area from grid-based dynamically downscaled monthly predictions. Predicted changes in hydroclimatic, nutrient, and pesticide fluxes under the 112 distinct simulations were then analyzed by emission pathway ensemble and characterized over early-, mid-, and late-century assessment periods (2015-2034, 2045-2064, and 2080-2099). Clear warming trends were apparent for temperature, while increases in precipitation were insignificant. Stream discharge, sediment yield, and total nutrient yields did not differ significantly between assessment periods, although atrazine yields were predicted to be slightly greater by late-century. However, the proportion of dissolved to total nutrients increased, with nitrate and soluble phosphorus yields increasing significantly between early

  6. Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Xin

    2017-04-01

    The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

  7. Influence of climate change on the incidence and impact of arenavirus diseases: a speculative assessment.

    PubMed

    Clegg, J C

    2009-06-01

    The current worldwide incidence of viral haemorrhagic fevers caused by arenaviruses is briefly reviewed. The recently published Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has described the changes in global climate that are expected to occur over the course of the present century and beyond. Climate modelling and forecasting have not yet reached the stage where confident predictions of regional changes at the level of a virus endemic area can be made. However, in the regions where pathogenic arenaviruses now circulate, significant effects are likely to include increases in surface temperature, changes in the extent and distribution of rainfall, the occurrence of extreme weather events, glacier retreat, and coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise. The possible impact of these changes on the geographical location and the incidence of arenavirus diseases and its human impact are discussed.

  8. Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

    2014-05-01

    The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin

  9. The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO): Science at Your Fingertips

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jennings, L. N.; Treasure, E.; Moore Myers, J.; McNulty, S.

    2012-12-01

    There is an ever-increasing volume of useful scientific knowledge about climate change effects and management options for natural ecosystems. Agencies such as the USDA Forest Service have been charged with the need to evaluate this body of knowledge and if necessary adapt to the impacts of climate change in their forest planning and management. However, the combined volume of existing information and rate of development of new information, lack of climate change specialists, and limited technology transfer mechanisms make efficient access and use difficult. The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) addresses this difficulty through its publically accessible web-based tool that puts current and concise climate change science at the fingertips of forest planners and managers. A collaborative product of the USDA Forest Service Research Stations and the National Forest System, TACCIMO integrates peer-reviewed research with management and planning options through search and reporting tools that connect land managers with information they can trust. TACCIMO highlights elements from the wealth of climate change science with attention to what natural resource planners and managers need through a searchable repository of over 4,000 effects of climate change and close to 1,000 adaptive management options, all excerpted from a growing body of peer-reviewed scientific literature. A geospatial mapping application provides downscaled climate data for the nation and other spatially explicit models relevant to evaluating climate change impacts on forests. Report generators assist users in capturing outputs specific to a given location and resource area in a consistent and organized manner. For USDA Forest Service users, science findings can be readily linked with management conditions and capabilities from national forest management plans. The development of TACCIMO was guided by interactions with natural resource professionals, resulting

  10. Heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in Europe in a changing climate: a health impact assessment

    PubMed Central

    Åström, Christofer; Orru, Hans; Rocklöv, Joacim; Strandberg, Gustav; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Respiratory diseases are ranked second in Europe in terms of mortality, prevalence and costs. Studies have shown that extreme heat has a large impact on mortality and morbidity, with a large relative increase for respiratory diseases. Expected increases in mean temperature and the number of extreme heat events over the coming decades due to climate change raise questions about the possible health impacts. We assess the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions in a future with a different climate. Design A Europe-wide health impact assessment. Setting An assessment for each of the EU27 countries. Methods Heat-related hospital admissions under a changing climate are projected using multicity epidemiological exposure–response relationships applied to gridded population data and country-specific baseline respiratory hospital admission rates. Times-series of temperatures are simulated with a regional climate model based on four global climate models, under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results Between a reference period (1981–2010) and a future period (2021–2050), the total number of respiratory hospital admissions attributed to heat is projected to be larger in southern Europe, with three times more heat attributed respiratory hospital admissions in the future period. The smallest change was estimated in Eastern Europe with about a twofold increase. For all of Europe, the number of heat-related respiratory hospital admissions is projected to be 26 000 annually in the future period compared with 11 000 in the reference period. Conclusions The results suggest that the projected effects of climate change on temperature and the number of extreme heat events could substantially influence respiratory morbidity across Europe. PMID:23355662

  11. Satellite remote sensing assessment of climate impact on forest vegetation dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoran, M.

    2009-04-01

    Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of impacts of climate and anthropogenic changes and a key parameter for understanding and modelling vegetation-climate interactions. Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temperature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homogeneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images with the Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series algorithm. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. The aim of this paper was to quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) parameter extracted from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and

  12. Assessment of Climate Impact Changes on Forest Vegetation Dynamics by Satellite Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zoran, Maria

    Climate variability represents the ensemble of net radiation, precipitation, wind and temper-ature characteristic for a region in a certain time scale (e.g.monthly, seasonal annual). The temporal and/or spatial sensitivity of forest vegetation dynamics to climate variability is used to characterize the quantitative relationship between these two quantities in temporal and/or spatial scales. So, climate variability has a great impact on the forest vegetation dynamics. Forest vegetation phenology constitutes an efficient bio-indicator of climate and anthropogenic changes impacts and a key parameter for understanding and modelling vegetation-climate in-teractions. Satellite remote sensing is a very useful tool to assess the main phenological events based on tracking significant changes on temporal trajectories of Normalized Difference Vege-tation Index (NDVIs), which requires NDVI time-series with good time resolution, over homo-geneous area, cloud-free and not affected by atmospheric and geometric effects and variations in sensor characteristics (calibration, spectral responses). Spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics have been quantified as the total amount of vegetation (mean NDVI) and the seasonal difference (annual NDVI amplitude) by a time series analysis of NDVI satellite images with the Harmonic ANalysis of Time Series algorithm. A climate indicator (CI) was created from meteorological data (precipitation over net radiation). The relationships between the vegetation dynamics and the CI have been determined spatially and temporally. The driest test regions prove to be the most sensitive to climate impact. The spatial and temporal patterns of the mean NDVI are the same, while they are partially different for the seasonal difference. The aim of this paper was to quantify this impact over a forest ecosystem placed in the North-Eastern part of Bucharest town, Romania, with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) parameter extracted from IKONOS and LANDSAT TM and

  13. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Treesearch

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  14. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    PubMed

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Assessments of regional climate change and its impacts in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Reckermann, Marcus; Quante, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Regional climate change assessments are urgently needed to complement the big picture with regional results and scenarios of higher resolution and with relevance for local decision makers and stakeholders. A new type of assessment report originated in the original BACC report of 2008 (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea region) which has served as role model for other assessments published or in preparation. It represents an approach to assessing and making available current knowledge on regional climate change and its regional impacts on the physical, biogeochemical and biological environment (ecosystems, socio-economic sphere). Reports of this type which are available or underway are the original BACC book (2008), the second BACC book (2015), the climate report for the greater Hamburg area (2011), and the NOSCCA report (North Sea Climate Change Assessment) which is expected to be published in 2016. The assessments are produced by teams of scientists from the region, led by lead authors who recruit experts from relevant topics to contribute. The process is not externally funded and completely based on published scientific evidence, and not biased by political or economic interest groups. The BACC-type reports aim to bring together consolidated knowledge that has broad consensus in the scientific community, but also acknowledging issues for which contradicting opinions are found in the literature, so that no consensus can be reached ("consensus on dissensus"). An international steering committee is responsible for overlooking the process, and all manuscripts are anonymously peer-reviewed by independent international experts. An outstanding outreach aspect of these reports is the close collaboration with regional stakeholders (for the BACC reports: HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission and the major regional science-policy interface in the Baltic Sea region; for the Hamburg climate report: the Hamburg city

  16. Towards an integrated economic assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, H.; Piontek, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Popp, A.; Bauer, N.; Dietrich, J.; Mueller, C.; Schmitz, C.

    2012-12-01

    For a detailed understanding of the effects of climate change on global agricultural production systems, it is essential to consider the variability of climate change patterns as projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs), their bio-physical impact on crops and the response in land-use patterns and markets. So far, approaches that account for the interaction of bio-physical and economic impacts are largely lacking. We present an integrative analysis by using a soft-coupled system of a biophysical impact model (LPJmL, Bondeau et al. 2007), an economically driven land use model (MAgPIE, Lotze-Campen et al. 2008) and an integrated assessment model (ReMIND-R, Leimbach et al. 2010) to study climate change impacts and economic damages in the agricultural sector. First, the dynamic global vegetation and hydrology model LPJmL is used to derive climate change impacts on crop yields for wheat, maize, soy, rice and other major crops. A range of different climate projections is used, taken from the dataset provided by the Intersectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP, www.isi-mip.org), which bias-corrected the latest CMIP5 climate data (Taylor et al. 2011). Crop yield impacts cover scenarios with and without CO2 fertilization as well as different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and different GCMs. With increasing temperature towards the end of the century yields generally decrease in tropical and subtropical regions, while they tend to benefit in higher latitudes. LPJmL results have been compared to other global crop models in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP, www.agmip.org). Second, changes in crop yields are analysed with the spatially explicit agro-economic model MAgPIE, which covers their interaction with economic development and changes in food demand. Changes in prices as well as welfare changes of producer and consumer surplus are taken as economic indicators. Due to climate-change related reductions in

  17. Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

    2009-12-01

    Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

  18. The AgMIP Wheat Pilot: A multi-model approach for climate change impact assessments.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asseng, S.

    2012-12-01

    Asseng S., F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, R.P. Rötter, D. Cammarano, N. Brisson, B. Basso, P. Martre, D. Ripoche, P. Bertuzzi, P. Steduto, L. Heng, M.A. Semenov, P. Stratonovitch, C. Stockle, G. O'Leary, P.K. Aggarwal, S. Naresh Kumar, C. Izaurralde, J.W. White, L.A. Hunt, R. Grant, K.C. Kersebaum, T. Palosuo, J. Hooker, T. Osborne, J. Wolf, I. Supit, J.E. Olesen, J. Doltra, C. Nendel, S. Gayler, J. Ingwersen, E. Priesack, T. Streck, F. Tao, C. Müller, K. Waha, R. Goldberg, C. Angulo, I. Shcherbak, C. Biernath, D. Wallach, M. Travasso, A. Challinor. Abstract: Crop simulation models have been used to assess the impact of climate change on agriculture. These assessments are often carried out with a single model in a limited number of environments and without determining the uncertainty of simulated impacts. There is a need for a coordinated effort bringing together multiple modeling teams which has been recognized by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org). AgMIP aims to provide more robust estimates of climate impacts on crop yields and agricultural trade, including estimates of associated uncertainties. Here, we present the AgMIP Wheat Pilot Study, the most comprehensive model intercomparison of the response of wheat crops to climate change to date, including 27 wheat models. Crop model uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts are explored and compared with field experimental and Global Circulation Model uncertainties. Causes of impact uncertainties and ways to reduce these are discussed.

  19. Assessing climate change impacts on fresh water resources of the Athabasca River Basin, Canada.

    PubMed

    Shrestha, Narayan Kumar; Du, Xinzhong; Wang, Junye

    2017-12-01

    Proper management of blue and green water resources is important for the sustainability of ecosystems and for the socio-economic development of river basins such as the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) in Canada. For this reason, quantifying climate change impacts on these water resources at a finer temporal and spatial scale is often necessary. In this study, we used a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess climate change impacts on fresh water resources, focusing explicitly on the impacts to both blue and green water. We used future climate data generated by the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) with a spatial resolution of 0.22°×0.22° (~25km) for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Results projected the climate of the ARB to be wetter by 21-34% and warmer by 2-5.4°C on an annual time scale. Consequently, the annual average blue and green water flow was projected to increase by 16-54% and 11-34%, respectively, depending on the region, future period, and emission scenario. Furthermore, the annual average green water storage at the boreal region was expected to increase by 30%, while the storage was projected to remain fairly stable or decrease in other regions, especially during the summer season. On average, the fresh water resources in the ARB are likely to increase in the future. However, evidence of temporal and spatial heterogeneity could pose many future challenges to water resource planners and managers. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reidsma, Pytrik; Wolf, Joost; Kanellopoulos, Argyris; Schaap, Ben F.; Mandryk, Maryia; Verhagen, Jan; van Ittersum, Martin K.

    2015-04-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.

  1. Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

    2013-12-01

    The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance

  2. Index-based framework for assessing climate change impact on wetlands in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Keeffe, Joanna; Marcinkowski, Paweł; Utratna, Marta; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is expected to impact the water cycle through changing the precipitation levels, river streamflows, soil moisture dynamics and therefore pose a threat to groundwater and surface-water fed wetlands and their biodiversity. We examined the past trends and future impacts of climate change on streamflow and soil water content. Simulation results from 1971 to 2000 (historical period) and from 2021 to 2100 (future period) were obtained with the use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Hydrological modelling was driven by a set of nine EUROCORDEX Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP's) of greenhouse gas concentration trajectories: 4.5 and 8.5. A special focus was made on water dependent habitats within the Special Areas of Conservation (SAC's) of the Natura 2000 network located within Odra and Vistula River basins in Poland. A habitat assessment was carried out to distinguish groundwater and surface water fed wetlands. By establishing threshold values of streamflow at bankfull flow we were able to identify flood events. Changes in frequency of the floods informed about the alteration to the water supply for wetlands reliant on inundation. The groundwater-fed wetlands were assessed on the basis of the soil water content. The model outputs were used to develop indices which were calculated for the climate change scenarios. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil water content and streamflow dynamics with average annual precipitation showed largely consistent patterns. The developed indicators are sensitive to projected changes in hydrologic regime in the conditions of changing climate. The results show influence of climate change on floodplain and groundwater-fed wetlands and show the number and kind of wetlands threatened in different regions of Poland. SAC's will play an important role of buffers and water regulators as soil water content in SAC's is projected to be higher than average for the future scenarios.

  3. Assessing the Climate Change Impact on Rainfall IDF Curves in the Apalachicola River Basin, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Yeh, G.; Bacopoulos, P.

    2010-12-01

    To model the climate change impact on the hydrology of the coastal area, both sea level rise and the inland precipitation and temperature change need to be considered. The change of rainfall characteristics especially for extreme events, which are represented by rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, is important for the water flow and sediment transport to and within coastal ecosystems. Predicted future climate change impacts for Florida include higher temperatures and increases in precipitation, leading to an intensification of the hydrologic cycle. There are several challenges to predict the IDF curves under future climate change scenarios: 1) GCMs (general circulation models) or RCMs (regional climate models) perform well for general statistics (such as annual or monthly rainfall) but not for extreme rainfall events at the local scale; 2) the temporal disaggregation of rainfall from GCM or RCM may be needed, e.g., from daily to hourly. Taking the Apalachicola River Basin in Florida as an example, this study assesses the change of IDF curves from baseline (e.g., current condition) to the future (e.g., 2070-2100) by two methods. One method is to construct a statistical IDF model based on the long-term rainfall records where the change of IDF curves is investigated from a retrospective view. The statistical model is applied to predict the IDF curves in the future. The other method is to assess the IDF curve changes using an ensemble of RCMs. The results from each approach will be compared and contrasted, and shown to be beneficial for simulating hydrodynamics and sediment transport over inland areas when assessing impacts of climate change.

  4. Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avolio, Elenio; Orlandi, Fabio; Bellecci, Carlo; Fornaciari, Marco; Federico, Stefano

    2012-02-01

    In phenological studies, plant development and its relationship with meteorological conditions are considered in order to investigate the influence of climatic changes on the characteristics of many crop species. In this work, the impact of climate change on the flowering of the olive tree ( Olea europaea L.) in Calabria, southern Italy, has been studied. Olive is one of the most important plant species in the Mediterranean area and, at the same time, Calabria is one of the most representative regions of this area, both geographically and climatically. The work is divided into two main research activities. First, the behaviour of olive tree in Calabria and the influence of temperature on phenological phases of this crop are investigated. An aerobiological method is used to determine the olive flowering dates through the analysis of pollen data collected in three experimental fields for an 11-year study period (1999-2009). Second, the study of climate change in Calabria at high spatial and temporal resolution is performed. A dynamical downscaling procedure is applied for the regionalization of large-scale climate analysis derived from general circulation models for two representative climatic periods (1981-2000 and 2081-2100); the A2 IPCC scenario is used for future climate projections. The final part of this work is the integration of the results of the two research activities to predict the olive flowering variation for the future climatic conditions. In agreement with our previous works, we found a significant correlation between the phenological phases and temperature. For the twenty-first century, an advance of pollen season in Calabria of about 9 days, on average, is expected for each degree of temperature rise. From phenological model results, on the basis of future climate predictions over Calabria, an anticipation of maximum olive flowering between 10 and 34 days is expected, depending on the area. The results of this work are useful for adaptation and

  5. Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: a spatially resolved regional risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Rizzi, J; Zabeo, A; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact assessment on water resources has received high international attention over the last two decades, due to the observed global warming and its consequences at the global to local scale. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose a great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. The close link of global warming with water cycle alterations encourages research to deepen current knowledge on relationships between climate trends and status of water systems, and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution model simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according to IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant

  6. Phenology as an Integrative Science for Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weltzin, J.; Losleben, M. V.

    2007-12-01

    Phenology is the study of periodic plant and animal life cycle events and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate. Examples include the timing of leafing and flowering, agricultural crop stages, insect emergence, and animal migration. All of these events are sensitive measures of climatic variation and change, are relatively simple to record and understand, and are vital to both the scientific and public interest. Integration of spatially-extensive phenological data and models with both short and long-term climatic forecasts offer a powerful agent for human adaptation to ongoing and future climate change. However, a new data resource of national scale is needed to capture the valuable information potential of phenological responses to climate change; to study its nature, pace and the effects of ecosystem function; and to understand connectivity and synchrony among species. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) is being designed and organized to engage federal agencies, environmental networks and field stations, educational institutions, and mass participation by citizen scientists to create this data resource, and develop phenology research potential. This presentation illustrates the variety of source, scale, and use of phenology in assessing current and future global climate change impacts.

  7. Rising to the Challenge of Climate Impact Assessment in the Arctic (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hinzman, L. D.

    2013-12-01

    The environmental changes ongoing in Arctic Regions have clearly demonstrated the climate is changing however assessing and predicting the impacts upon the physical and biological systems remains an important research challenge. To truly understand the evolution of the environment in response to a warming climate, we cannot investigate single components in isolation. We must change our perspective to include the dynamic linkages and feedbacks among system components, including physical and biological processes and in some cases societal interactions. The land areas of the Arctic are changing rapidly. The permafrost is degrading, lakes are draining, soils are getting drier, plant and animal species are migrating northward, snow is melting earlier and returning later. The marine system is also experiencing marked changes, most notably loss of sea ice, warming of deeper layers, changes in cloudiness and weather, acidification and migration of species. Trends of decreasing sea ice and increased open-water fetch, combined with warming air and ground temperatures, result in higher wave energy, increased seasonal thaw, and accelerated coastal retreat along large parts of circum-Arctic coast. All of these changes are having a significant impact upon local environment, but these changes are occurring over such a large area, they are beginning to affect regional and perhaps even global climate. We will not be able accurately forecast the impacts of changing climate conditions until we can accurately incorporate the processes of those dynamics in the integrated system.

  8. European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

  9. European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-04-09

    Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  10. Multi-model assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change in a small Mediterranean basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perra, Enrica; Piras, Monica; Deidda, Roberto; Paniconi, Claudio; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Vivoni, Enrique R.; Cau, Pierluigi; Marras, Pier Andrea; Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    Assessing the hydrologic impacts of climate change is of great importance in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by high precipitation variablitity and complex interactions within the water cycle. In this work we focus on the hydrological response of the Rio Mannu catchment, a small basin located in southern Sardinia (Italy) and characterized by a semi-arid climate. Specifically, we investigate inter-model variability and uncertainty by comparing the results of five distributed hydrologic models, namely CATchment HYdrology (CATHY), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), TOPographic Kinematic APproximation and Integration eXtended (TOPKAPI-X), TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS), and WAter flow and balance SIMulation (WASIM), that differ greatly in their representation of terrain features, physical processes, and numerical complexity. The hydrological models were independently calibrated and validated on observed meteorological and hydrological time series, and then forced by the output of four combinations of global and regional climate models (properly bias-corrected and downscaled) in order to evaluate the effects of climate change for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period. Notwithstanding their differences, the five hydrologic models responded similarly to the reduced precipitation and increased temperatures predicted by the climate models, and lend strong support to a future scenario of increased water shortages. The multi-model framework allows estimation of the uncertainty associated with these hydrologic simulations and this aspect will also be discussed.

  11. Assessing climate impacts and risks of ocean albedo modification in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mengis, N.; Martin, T.; Keller, D. P.; Oschlies, A.

    2016-05-01

    The ice albedo feedback is one of the key factors of accelerated temperature increase in the high northern latitudes under global warming. This study assesses climate impacts and risks of idealized Arctic Ocean albedo modification (AOAM), a proposed climate engineering method, during transient climate change simulations with varying representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. We find no potential for reversing trends in all assessed Arctic climate metrics under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. AOAM only yields an initial offset during the first years after implementation. Nevertheless, sea ice loss can be delayed by 25(60) years in the RCP8.5(RCP4.5) scenario and the delayed thawing of permafrost soils in the AOAM simulations prevents up to 40(32) Pg of carbon from being released by 2100. AOAM initially dampens the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning and delays the onset of open ocean deep convection in the Nordic Seas under the RCP scenarios. Both these processes cause a subsurface warming signal in the AOAM simulations relative to the default RCP simulations with the potential to destabilize Arctic marine gas hydrates. Furthermore, in 2100, the RCP8.5 AOAM simulation diverts more from the 2005-2015 reference state in many climate metrics than the RCP4.5 simulation without AOAM. Considering the demonstrated risks, we conclude that concerning longer time scales, reductions in emissions remain the safest and most effective way to prevent severe changes in the Arctic.

  12. Using an ensemble of regional climate models to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in European river basins.

    PubMed

    Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-12-15

    Climate change will likely increase pressure on the water balances of Mediterranean basins due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at ~12km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected and climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 as compared to the reference period 1981-2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity.

  13. Addressing climate change in the forest vegetation simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

    Treesearch

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2010-01-01

    To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

  14. Addressing climate change in the Forest Vegetation Simulator to assess impacts on landscape forest dynamics

    Treesearch

    Nicholas L. Crookston; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Gary E. Dixon; Aaron R. Weiskittel

    2010-01-01

    To simulate stand-level impacts of climate change, predictors in the widely used Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) were adjusted to account for expected climate effects. This was accomplished by: (1) adding functions that link mortality and regeneration of species to climate variables expressing climatic suitability, (2) constructing a function linking site index to...

  15. Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in remote mountain regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buytaert, Wouter; De Bièvre, Bert

    2013-04-01

    From a water resources perspective, remote mountain regions are often considered as a basket case. They are often regions where poverty is often interlocked with multiple threats to water supply, data scarcity, and high uncertainties. In these environments, it is paramount to generate locally relevant knowledge about water resources and how they impact local livelihoods. This is often problematic. Existing environmental data collection tends to be geographically biased towards more densely populated regions, and prioritized towards strategic economic activities. Data may also be locked behind institutional and technological barriers. These issues create a "knowledge trap" for data-poor regions, which is especially acute in remote and hard-to-reach mountain regions. We present lessons learned from a decade of water resources research in remote mountain regions of the Andes, Africa and South Asia. We review the entire tool chain of assessing climate change impacts on water resources, including the interrogation and downscaling of global circulation models, translating climate variables in water availability and access, and assessing local vulnerability. In global circulation models, mountain regions often stand out as regions of high uncertainties and lack of agreement of future trends. This is partly a technical artifact because of the different resolution and representation of mountain topography, but it also highlights fundamental uncertainties in climate impacts on mountain climate. This problem also affects downscaling efforts, because regional climate models should be run in very high spatial resolution to resolve local gradients, which is computationally very expensive. At the same time statistical downscaling methods may fail to find significant relations between local climate properties and synoptic processes. Further uncertainties are introduced when downscaled climate variables such as precipitation and temperature are to be translated in hydrologically

  16. Assessment of climate change impacts on meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Jucar River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcos-Garcia, Patricia; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Lopez-Nicolas, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Extreme natural phenomena, and more specifically droughts, constitute a serious environmental, economic and social issue in Southern Mediterranean countries, common in the Mediterranean Spanish basins due to the high temporal and spatial rainfall variability. Drought events are characterized by their complexity, being often difficult to identify and quantify both in time and space, and an universally accepted definition does not even exist. This fact, along with future uncertainty about the duration and intensity of the phenomena on account of climate change, makes necessary increasing the knowledge about the impacts of climate change on droughts in order to design management plans and mitigation strategies. The present abstract aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on both meteorological and hydrological droughts, through the use of a generalization of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We use the Standardized Flow Index (SFI) to assess the hydrological drought, using flow time series instead of rainfall time series. In the case of the meteorological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) has been applied to assess the variability of temperature impacts. In order to characterize climate change impacts on droughts, we have used projections from the CORDEX project (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). Future rainfall and temperature time series for short (2011-2040) and medium terms (2041-2070) were obtained, applying a quantile mapping method to correct the bias of these time series. Regarding the hydrological drought, the Témez hydrological model has been applied to simulate the impacts of future temperature and rainfall time series on runoff and river discharges. It is a conceptual, lumped and a few parameters hydrological model. Nevertheless, it is necessary to point out the time difference between the meteorological and the hydrological droughts. The case study is the Jucar river basin

  17. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Jianxia; Zhang, Hongxue; Wang, Yimin; Zhu, Yuelu

    2016-04-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in the Jinghe basin, located in the northwest of China. This is an important watershed of the Shaanxi province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million people. The results showed that the maximum value of the moisture index (E0/P) was 1.91 and appeared in 1991-2000, and the decreased speed of streamflow was higher since 1990 compared with 1960-1990. The average annual streamflow from 1990 to 2010 was reduced by 26.96 % compared with the multiyear average value (from 1960 to 2010). The estimates of the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow decreases from the hydrological models were similar to those from the elasticity-based method. The maximum contribution value of human activities was 99 % when averaged over the three methods, and appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal. Climate variability made the greatest contribution to streamflow reduction in 1991-2000, the values of which was 40.4 %. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occur in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  18. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow variation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Water resources in river systems have been changing under the impact of both climate variability and human activities. Assessing the respective impact on decadal streamflow variation is important for water resource management. By using an elasticity-based method and calibrated TOPMODEL and VIC hydrological models, we quantitatively isolated the relative contributions that human activities and climate variability made to decadal streamflow changes in Jinghe basin, located in the northwest of China. This is an important watershed of Shaanxi Province that supplies drinking water for a population of over 6 million people. The results showed that the maximum value of the moisture index (E0/P) was 1.91 and appeared in 1991-2000 and that the decreased speed of streamflow was higher since 1990. The average annual streamflow from 1990 to 2010 was reduced by 26.96 % compared with the multi-year average value. The estimates of climate variability and the impact of human activities on streamflow decreases from the hydrological models were similar to those from the elasticity-based method. The maximum contribution value of human activities was appeared in 1981-1990 due to the effects of soil and water conservation measures and irrigation water withdrawal. Climate variability made the greatest contribution to reduction in 1991-2000, the values of which were 99 and 40.4 % when averaged over the three methods. We emphasized various source of errors and uncertainties that may occur in the hydrological model (parameter and structural uncertainty) and elasticity-based method (model parameter) in climate change impact studies.

  19. A new large initial condition ensemble to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, B. M.; Tebaldi, C.; Knutti, R.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    It has recently been demonstrated that when considering timescales of up to 50 years, natural variability may play an equal role to anthropogenic forcing on subcontinental trends for a variety of climate indicators. Thus, for many questions assessing climate impacts on such time and spatial scales, it has become clear that a significant number of ensemble members may be required to produce robust statistics (and especially so for extreme events). However, large ensemble experiments to date have considered the role of variability in a single scenario, leaving uncertain the relationship between the forced climate trajectory and the variability about that path. To address this issue, we present a new, publicly available, 15 member initial condition ensemble of 21st century climate projections for the RCP 4.5 scenario using the CESM1.1 Earth System Model, which we propose as a companion project to the existing 40 member CESM large ensemble which uses the higher greenhouse gas emission future of RCP8.5. This provides a valuable data set for assessing what societal and ecological impacts might be avoided through a moderate mitigation strategy in contrast to a fossil fuel intensive future. We present some early analyses of these combined ensembles to assess to what degree the climate variability can be considered to combine linearly with the underlying forced response. In regions where there is no detectable relationship between the mean state and the variability about the mean trajectory, then linear assumptions can be trivially exploited to utilize a single ensemble or control simulation to characterize the variability in any scenario of interest. We highlight regions where there is a detectable nonlinearity in extreme event frequency, how far in the future they will be manifested and propose mechanisms to account for these effects.

  20. Assessing Climate change Impacts to Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves over the Florida Panhandle &Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, D. K.; Wang, D.; Obeysekera, J.; Hagen, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    The type, amount, intensity and frequency of rainfall are being directly influenced and altered due to potential climate changes. Consideration should be given to a revision of the rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve, developed based on the historical rainfall data, for storm water drainage design and flood control facilities. Proper adaptation by quantifying the potential effects of climate changes is one of the major ways to reduce vulnerability. As a result, updating IDF curves based on the future climate condition is very important for managing the hydraulic structures. In this study, the climate change impact to rainfall IDF curves over the Florida panhandle and peninsula are assessed using the COAPS Regional Downscaling data from the Florida Climate Institute. The COAPS Land-Atmosphere Regional Ensemble Climate Change Experiment for the Southeast United States at 10-km resolution consists of three regional climate models (RCM) by downscaling the general circulation models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM (GFDL). The RCMs have been performed for the historical simulations (1969-1999) and the future projections (2038-2070) under the AR4 A2 emissions scenario. In this study, more than 30-years of hourly precipitation data are gathered from 57 weather stations in Florida. The performance of the RCMs is evaluated by comparing historical simulations with observations. The parameters of generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions including location, scale, and shape parameters are mapped for the period of 1969-1999 and 2038-2070. The spatial distribution map of rainfall intensity under various durations and return periods will be presented. The response on the Florida panhandle will be compared and contrasted with that of the larger peninsula. These maps will provide insight that can lead to a useful engineering tool for designing the

  1. An assessment of climate change impacts on micro-hydropower energy recovery in water supply networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brady, Jennifer; Patil, Sopan; McNabola, Aonghus; Gallagher, John; Coughlan, Paul; Harris, Ian; Packwood, Andrew; Williams, Prysor

    2015-04-01

    Continuity of service of a high quality water supply is vital in sustaining economic and social development. However, water supply and wastewater treatment are highly energy intensive processes and the overall cost of water provision is rising rapidly due to increased energy costs, higher capital investment requirements, and more stringent regulatory compliance in terms of both national and EU legislation. Under the EU Directive 2009/28/EC, both Ireland and the UK are required to have 16% and 15% respectively of their electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020. The projected impacts of climate change, population growth and urbanisation will place additional pressures on resources, further increasing future water demand which in turn will lead to higher energy consumption. Therefore, there is a need to achieve greater efficiencies across the water industry. The implementation of micro-hydropower turbines within the water supply network has shown considerable viability for energy recovery. This is achieved by harnessing energy at points of high flow or pressure along the network which can then be utilised on site or alternatively sold to the national grid. Micro-hydropower can provide greater energy security for utilities together with a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. However, potential climate change impacts on water resources in the medium-to-long term currently act as a key barrier to industry confidence as changes in flow and pressure within the network can significantly alter the available energy for recovery. The present study aims to address these uncertainties and quantify the regional and local impacts of climate change on the viability of energy recovery across water infrastructure in Ireland and the UK. Specifically, the research focuses on assessing the potential future effects of climate change on flow rates at multiple pressure reducing valve sites along the water supply network and also in terms of flow at a number of wastewater

  2. Glucocorticoid assessment in the domestic horse: the impact of time and climatic variables on sample integrity.

    PubMed

    Yarnell, K; Walker, S L

    2017-07-20

    Assessment of faecal glucocorticoid metabolites (FGM) offers a non-invasive method of monitoring adrenal activity in domestic horses. Sample collection is on an opportunistic basis, and if samples are not fresh or have been exposed to the elements before they are identified, then they may not accurately reflect FGM concentration. To explore the impact of a range of environmental conditions upon the integrity of FGM levels in equine faeces. In vitro experiment. Equine faeces were exposed to six controlled environmental conditions meant to simulate a range of weather and seasonal patterns (temperate climate, high heat, high heat and rainfall, temperate climate and rainfall, high heat/temperate climate and freeze/thaw) over a period of five days. FGM were quantified using an enzyme linked immunoassay. Faecal samples exposed to room temperature and high heat demonstrated a significant increase in FGM over time. Changes in FGM were not observed in the remaining treatments. The study should be repeated in field conditions and with known high and low levels of FGM to further inform sampling regimes. Adrenal monitoring in the domestic horse should be performed with consideration of the impact of climate on integrity of faecal samples to further inform sampling schedules and improve reliability of results. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2016-02-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2 ), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  4. Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

    2017-07-01

    This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

  5. Assessing very long-range impacts from a rapid climate change

    SciTech Connect

    Markley, O.W.; Hall, P.R.

    1982-01-01

    A variety of anthropogenic, or human-generated forces are gradually changing global climate. These include effects due to slash and burn agriculture, industrial particulates, waste heat and gasses such as chlorofluoromethanes, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Although the short-range effects of these forces may seem to be relatively minor from a long-range perspective, climatologists warn that the long-range effects - especially of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide resulting from widespread fossil fuel use - will be great, bringing significant alterations in atmospheric temperature, wind and ocean currents, precipitation patterns, and other ecological phenomena. From a geological time perspective, the resulting climate changes will occur quite rapidly, and will affect human concerns in a number of ways. Besides being important for long-range social planning, these effects are of intrinsic interest to futures research and impact assessment methodologists. Although many uncertainties exist in long-range climate forecasting, climate change comprises one of the very few classes of phenomena where the nature of very long-range (i.e., 30 to 3000 years) impact-producing changes are feasible to forecast in reasonably rigorous, quantitative terms.

  6. Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on the Agro-ecosystems in California and Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Asrar, G. R.; El-Askary, H. M.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Hayhoe, K.; Kim, J.; Ziska, L.; Medvigy, D.; Prasad, A. K.; Tremback, C.; Walko, R. L.

    2011-12-01

    Climate variability and change affects natural and managed ecosystems, namely agriculture and rangelands, and the services they offer such as food, fiber, energy, fresh water, etc. we derive from them are among the highest concerns in quantifying the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. These impacts are expected to be ecosystem and region specific, thus requiring climate information at greater spatial and temporal resolution offered by the global climate models. In this study we are using a combination of climate downscaling and regional climate models in conjunction with ecosystem models to assess the impact of climate variability and change on the natural and managed ecosystems in California and Southwest region of the United States. In an attempt to generate reliable assessments of the impact of regional climate variability and change on the agro-ecosystems in the region, we have designed an impact assessment study in which multiple Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are used to develop downscaled climate information to in turn drive ecosystem models. We develop the climate scenarios for the region based on a combination of dynamical and statistical approaches. We evaluate the efficacy of the climate scenarios in hindcast mode against available historical observation records to build confidence in their future climate projections. We then use the derived climate information in the ecosystem models to assess how these ecosystems will function under the projected climate conditions. We will present some early results from the evaluation of three regional climate models in a long-term hindcast experiments, the fundamental step before performing regional climate projection. Model variables needed by agro-ecosystem models, daily precipitation and temperature extremes, from individual models and their ensembles, are being evaluated against the National Weather Service observation network and the global gridded analyses from NCEP. We also compare direct

  7. Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lipschultz, Fred

    2011-01-01

    Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

  8. A dynamic species modeling approach to assess climate change impacts on California tree species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ries, L. P.; Hannah, L.; Thorne, J.; Seo, C.; Davis, F.

    2007-12-01

    Global climate change during the 21st century is anticipated to have consequences on potential niche viability for woody plant species. Previous research on modeling bioclimatic envelopes has allowed us to predict where to find species assemblages under future climate scenarios and hence predict loss or gain of specific habitats. However, species may not identically respond to climate change. This could result in species disassembling and disagreement between predicted potential niches and realized niches. Therefore, it is critical to examine potential niche shifts at the species level. We used a spatially explicit demographic model to predict shifts in tree species of the northern Sierra Nevada mountains in the context of competition with neighboring plant functional types as well as disturbance (i.e. fire) under various climate change scenarios. Additionally, we incorporated a dispersal model to account for intermediary dispersal strategies. In particular, we were interested in modeling Pinus species found in the "checkerboard" region of the northern Sierra Nevada. These populations are of novel interest due to their disparate management strategies (private vs. public landownership). Our findings have important implications for the assessment of the impact of climate change on these high elevation Montane species.

  9. A framework to assess the impacts of climate change on stream health indicators in Michigan watersheds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woznicki, S. A.; Nejadhashemi, A. P.; Tang, Y.; Wang, L.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a baseline of 1980-2000 to 2020-2040. Flow regime variables representing variability, duration of extreme events, and timing of low and high flow events were sensitive to changes in climate. The stream health indicators were relatively insensitive to changing climate at the watershed scale. However, there were many instances of individual reaches that were projected to experience declines in stream health. Using the probability of stream health decline coupled with the magnitude of the decline, maps of

  10. The Future of Hydropower: Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change, Energy Prices and New Storage Technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaudard, Ludovic; Madani, Kaveh; Romerio, Franco

    2016-04-01

    The future of hydropower depends on various drivers, and in particular on climate change, electricity market evolution and innovation in new storage technologies. Their impacts on the power plants' profitability can widely differ in regards of scale, timing, and probability of occurrence. In this respect, the risk should not be expressed only in terms of expected revenue, but also of uncertainty. These two aspects must be considered to assess the future of hydropower. This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change, electricity market volatility and competing energy storage's technologies and quantifies them in terms of annual revenue. Our simulations integrate a glacio-hydrological model (GERM) with various electricity market data and models (mean reversion and jump diffusion). The medium (2020-50) and long-term (2070-2100) are considered thanks to various greenhouse gas scenarios (A1B, A2 and RCP3PD) and the stochastic approach for the electricity prices. An algorithm named "threshold acceptance" is used to optimize the reservoir operations. The impacts' scale, and the related uncertainties are presented for Mauvoisin, which is a storage-hydropower plant situated in the Swiss Alps, and two generic pure pumped-storage installations, which are assessed with the prices of 17 European electricity markets. The discussion will highlight the key differences between the impacts brought about by the drivers.

  11. Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ullman, D. J.; LeGrande, A. N.; Carlson, A. E.; Anslow, F. S.; Licciardi, J. M.

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates

  12. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change: lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-04-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada—the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a "family of integrators" into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies.

  13. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  14. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  15. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    PubMed

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  16. The Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security.

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, Mark A.; Zak, Bernard Daniel; Backus, George A.; Ivey, Mark D.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2008-11-01

    The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine the latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside

  17. Towards Supporting Climate Scientists and Impact Assessment Analysts with the Big Data Europe Platform

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klampanos, Iraklis; Vlachogiannis, Diamando; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Cofiño, Antonio; Charalambidis, Angelos; Lokers, Rob; Konstantopoulos, Stasinos; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

    2016-04-01

    The EU, Horizon 2020, project Big Data Europe (BDE) aims to support European companies and institutions in effectively managing and making use of big data in activities critical to their progress and success. BDE focuses on seven areas of societal impact: Health, Food and Agriculture, Energy, Transport, Climate, Social Sciences and Security. By reaching out to partners and stakeholders, BDE aims to elicit data-intensive requirements for, and deliver an ICT platform to cover aspects of publishing and consuming semantically interoperable, large-scale, multi-lingual data assets and knowledge. In this presentation we will describe the first BDE pilot for Climate, focusing on SemaGrow, its core component, which provides data querying and management based on data semantics. Over the last few decades, extended scientific effort in understanding climate change has resulted in a huge volume of model and observational data. Large international global and regional model inter-comparison projects have focused on creating a framework in support of climate model diagnosis, validation, documentation and data access. The application of climate model ensembles, a system consisting of different possible realisations of a climate model, has further significantly increased the amount of climate and weather data generated. The provision of such models satisfies the crucial objective of assessing potential impacts of climate change on well-being for adaptation, prevention and mitigation. One of the methodologies applied by the climate research and impact assessment communities is that of dynamical downscaling. This calculates values of atmospheric variables in smaller spatial and temporal scales, given a global model. On the company or institution level, this process can be greatly improved in terms of querying, data ingestion from various sources and formats, automatic data mapping, etc. The first Climate BDE pilot will facilitate the process of dynamical downscaling by providing a

  18. Climate change impacts on risks of groundwater pollution by herbicides: a regional scale assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffens, Karin; Moeys, Julien; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Lewan, Elisabet; Jarvis, Nick

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater contributes nearly half of the Swedish drinking water supply, which therefore needs to be protected both under present and future climate conditions. Pesticides are sometimes found in Swedish groundwater in concentrations exceeding the EU-drinking water limit and thus constitute a threat. The aim of this study was to assess the present and future risks of groundwater pollution at the regional scale by currently approved herbicides. We identified representative combinations of major crop types and their specific herbicide usage (product, dose and application timing) based on long-term monitoring data from two agricultural catchments in the South-West of Sweden. All these combinations were simulated with the regional version of the pesticide fate model MACRO (called MACRO-SE) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 for a major crop production region in South West Sweden. To represent the uncertainty in future climate data, we applied a five-member ensemble based on different climate model projections downscaled with the RCA3-model (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). In addition to the direct impacts of changes in the climate, the risks of herbicide leaching in the future will also be affected by likely changes in weed pressure and land use and management practices (e.g. changes in crop rotations and application timings). To assess the relative importance of such factors we performed a preliminary sensitivity analysis which provided us with a hierarchical structure for constructing future herbicide use scenarios for the regional scale model runs. The regional scale analysis gave average concentrations of herbicides leaching to groundwater for a large number of combinations of soils, crops and compounds. The results showed that future scenarios for herbicide use (more autumn-sown crops, more frequent multiple applications on one crop, and a shift from grassland to arable crops such as maize) imply significantly greater risks of herbicide

  19. Mid­west. Climate change impacts in the United States: The third national climate assessment

    Treesearch

    Sara C. Pryor; Donald Scavia; Charles Downer; Marc Gaden; Louis Iverson; Rolf Nordstrom; Jonathan Patz; G. Phillip. Robertson

    2014-01-01

    In the next few decades, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will increase yields of some crops, though those benefits will be progressively offset by extreme weather events. Though adaptation options can reduce some of the detrimental effects, in the long term, the combined stresses associated with climate change are expected to decrease...

  20. Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

    2016-08-01

    Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

  1. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  2. Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2016-04-01

    Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

  3. On the assessment of urban land-surface impacts on climate in regional climate model simulations over Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huszar, Peter; Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas

    2016-04-01

    When aiming higher resolution in dynamical downscaling, which is common trend in CORDEX activities, the effects of land use and land use changes are playing increasing role. This is especially true for the urban areas, which in high resolution can occupy significant part of a single gridbox, if not being even bigger in case of big cities or megacities. Moreover, the role of cities will increase in future, as the population within the urban areas is growing faster, with the estimate for Europe of about 84% living in cities. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the impact of cities and in general the urban surfaces on climate, the surface parameterization in regional climate model RegCM4 has been coupled with the Single Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), which can be used both in dynamic scale within BATS scheme and in a more detailed SUBBATS scale to treat the surface on a higher resolution subgrid. A set of experiments was performed over the period of 2005-2009 over central Europe, either without considering urban surfaces and with the SLUCM treatment. Results show a statistically significant impact of urbanized surfaces on temperature (up to 1.5 K increase in summer), on the boundary layer height (ZPBL, increases up to 50 m). Additionally, the version of land-surface scheme using CLM is tested and effect of the urban environment, which is included in the CLM scheme, will be assessed. Both versions will be compared and validated using EOBS data.

  4. Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

    2013-04-01

    Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate

  5. Chapter 6. Impacts of Climate Change on Oregon's Coasts and Estuaries in "Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report"

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 2007 the Oregon legislature created a new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), which is based at Oregon State University (OSU). As part of its charter, OCCRI is mandated to produce a biennial report for the state legislature synthesizing climate change impacts a...

  6. Chapter 6. Impacts of Climate Change on Oregon's Coasts and Estuaries in "Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report"

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 2007 the Oregon legislature created a new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), which is based at Oregon State University (OSU). As part of its charter, OCCRI is mandated to produce a biennial report for the state legislature synthesizing climate change impacts a...

  7. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbaspour, Karim C.; Faramarzi, Monireh; Ghasemi, Samaneh Seyed; Yang, Hong

    2009-10-01

    As water resources become further stressed due to increasing levels of societal demand, understanding the effect of climate change on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance in management of this essential resource. In this study, we used a hydrologic model of Iran to study the impact of future climate on the country's water resources. The hydrologic model was created using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and calibrated for the period from 1980 to 2002 using daily river discharges and annual wheat yield data at a subbasin level. Future climate scenarios for periods of 2010-2040 and 2070-2100 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2, which were downscaled for 37 climate stations across the country. The hydrologic model was then applied to these periods to analyze the effect of future climate on precipitation, blue water, green water, and yield of wheat across the country. For future scenarios we found that in general, wet regions of the country will receive more rainfall while dry regions will receive less. Analysis of daily rainfall intensities indicated more frequent and larger-intensity floods in the wet regions and more prolonged droughts in the dry regions. When aggregated to provincial levels, the differences in the predictions due to the three future scenarios were smaller than the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. However, at the subbasin level the three climate scenarios produced quite different results in the dry regions of the country, although the results in the wet regions were more or less similar.

  8. Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality with a watershed modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Luo, Yuzhou; Ficklin, Darren L; Liu, Xiaomang; Zhang, Minghua

    2013-04-15

    The assessment of hydrologic responses to climate change is required in watershed management and planning to protect water resources and environmental quality. This study is designed to evaluate and enhance watershed modeling approach in characterizing climate change impacts on water supply and ecosystem stressors. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was selected as a base model, and improved for the CO2 dependence of potential evapotranspiration and stream temperature prediction. The updated model was applied to quantify the impacts of projected 21st century climate change in the northern Coastal Ranges and western Sierra Nevada, which are important water source areas and aquatic habitats of California. Evapotranspiration response to CO2 concentration varied with vegetation type. For the forest-dominated watersheds in this study, only moderate (1-3%) reductions on evapotranspiration were predicted by solely elevating CO2 concentration under emission scenarios A2 and B1. Modeling results suggested increases in annual average stream temperature proportional to the projected increases in air temperature. Although no temporal trend was confirmed for annual precipitation in California, increases of precipitation and streamflow during winter months and decreases in summers were predicted. Decreased streamflow during summertime, together with the higher projected air temperature in summer than in winter, would increase stream temperature during those months and result in unfavorable conditions for cold-water species. Compared to the present-day conditions, 30-60 more days per year were predicted with average stream temperature >20°C during 2090s. Overall, the hydrologic cycle and water quality of headwater drainage basins of California, especially their seasonality, are very sensitive to projected climate change.

  9. Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Marten, Alex; Kopp, Robert E.; Shouse, Kate C.; Griffiths, Charles; Hodson, Elke L.; Kopits, Elizabeth; Mignone, Bryan K.; Moore, Chris; Newbold, Steve; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wolverton, Ann

    2013-04-01

    The social cost of carbon (SCC) is a monetized metric for evaluating the benefits associated with marginal reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. It represents the expected welfare loss from the future damages caused by the release of one tonne of CO2 in a given year, expressed in consumption equivalent terms. It is intended to be a comprehensive measure, taking into account changes in agricultural productivity, human health risks, loss of ecosystem services and biodiversity, and the frequency and severity of flooding and storms, among other possible impacts. Estimating the SCC requires long-term modeling of global economic activity, the climate system, and the linkages between the two through anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the effects of changing climatic conditions on economic activity and human well-being. The United States government currently uses the SCC in regulatory benefit-cost analyses to assess the welfare effects of changes in CO2 emissions. Consistent application of the SCC to federal rulemaking analyses began in 2009-2010 with the development of a set of global SCC estimates that employed three prominent integrated assessment models (IAMs) -- DICE, FUND, and PAGE. The U.S. government report identified a number of limitations associated with SCC estimates in general and its own assumptions in particular: an incomplete treatment of damages, including potential “catastrophic” impacts; uncertainty regarding the extrapolation of damage functions to high temperatures; incomplete treatment of adaptation and technological change; and the evaluation of uncertain outcomes in a risk-neutral fashion. External experts have identified other potential issues, including how best to model long-term socio-economic and emissions pathways, oversimplified physical climate and carbon cycle modeling within the IAMs, and an inconsistency between non-constant economic growth scenarios and constant discount rates. The U.S. government has committed

  10. Advancing global hydro-climatological data archives to support climate change impact assessments on water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saile, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variations and changing climate will very likely alter the rate and nature of hydrological processes and consequently affect water resources in many regions. Current General Circulation Models and downscaling methods that are increasingly used to assess changes in the water cycle and water resource vulnerabilities introduce a cascade of uncertainties that cannot realistically be dealt with at the moment and are too inaccurate to support improved decision-making for water management and for future water systems design. Therefore, water managers need not only improved hydrological and climate modelling and downscaling methods but also access to adequate hydro-meteorological monitoring networks. The Global Terrestrial Network for Hydrology (GTN-H), a joint effort by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and several global observing systems, aims at integrating in-situ and remote sensing hydrological observations with hydrological model results held by its partner institutions to support a wide range of hydrological applications including research of global and regional climate change. Adhering to the different needs of all data users (scientists, policy makes and other stakeholders) and bridging the gap between the distributed datasets, currently a new information system is being developed to enable web-based discovery, access and analysis of observation data and derived products served through GTN-H. This system is built on international standards published by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) using open standardized web services, namely (1) Catalogue Services for data discovery, (2) Web Map Services for data visualization and (3) Web Feature Services, Web Coverage Services and Sensor Observation Services for data access. This presentation will give an overview about the GTN-H data archive and the design of the new information system including an outlook of its potential use for water related climate change impact assessments.

  11. Assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin.

    PubMed

    Abah, Roland Clement; Petja, Brilliant Mareme

    2016-12-01

    Agriculture in the Lower Benue River Basin faces several challenges which threaten the future of agricultural development. This study was an assessment of potential impacts of climate change on agricultural development in the Lower Benue River Basin. Through analysis of physical and socioeconomic parameters, the study adapted an impact assessment model to rank potential impacts on agricultural development in the study area. Rainfall intensity seemed to be increasing with a gradual reduction in the number of rainy days. The average discharge at Makurdi hydrological station was 3468.24 cubic metres per second (m(3) s(-1)), and the highest peak flow discharge was 16,400 m(3) s(-1). The daily maximum temperature and annual temperature averages for the study area are gradually rising leading to increased heat stress. Physical and chemical analyses showed that the soils are moderately fertile but require effective application of inorganic and organic fertilisers. The main occupational activities in the study area are agricultural based. The identified potential impacts of climate change on agriculture were categorised under atmospheric carbon dioxides and oxides, rainfall intensity, frequency of floods and droughts, temperature intensity and variation, heat stress, surface water trends, and soil quality and fertility. The identified potential impacts related to population dynamics on agriculture were categorised under population growth, rural-urban migration, household income and infectious diseases and HIV and AIDS. Community-level mitigation strategies were proffered. Policy makers are advised to promote irrigation farming, support farmers with farm inputs and credit facilities and establish active agricultural extension services to support the sustainable development of agriculture.

  12. Assessing Impact of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport on Regional Air Quality and Climate: What Satellites Can Help

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yu, Hongbin

    2011-01-01

    Mounting evidence for intercontinental transport of aerosols suggests that aerosols from a region could significantly affect climate and air quality in downwind regions and continents. Current assessment of these impacts for the most part has been based on global model simulations that show large variability. The aerosol intercontinental transport and its influence on air quality and climate involve many processes at local, regional, and intercontinental scales. There is a pressing need to establish modeling systems that bridge the wide range of scales. The modeling systems need to be evaluated and constrained by observations, including satellite measurements. Columnar loadings of dust and combustion aerosols can be derived from the MODIS and MISR measurements of total aerosol optical depth and particle size and shape information. Characteristic transport heights of dust and combustion aerosols can be determined from the CALIPSO lidar and AIRS measurements. CALIPSO liar and OMI UV technique also have a unique capability of detecting aerosols above clouds, which could offer some insights into aerosol lofting processes and the importance of above-cloud transport pathway. In this presentation, I will discuss our efforts of integrating these satellite measurements and models to assess the significance of intercontinental transport of dust and combustion aerosols on regional air quality and climate.

  13. Modeling suspended sediment transport and assessing the impacts of climate change in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Nerantzaki, S D; Giannakis, G V; Efstathiou, D; Nikolaidis, N P; Sibetheros, I Α; Karatzas, G P; Zacharias, I

    2015-12-15

    Mediterranean semi-arid watersheds are characterized by a climate type with long periods of drought and infrequent but high-intensity rainfalls. These factors lead to the formation of temporary flow tributaries which present flashy hydrographs with response times ranging from minutes to hours and high erosion rates with significant sediment transport. Modeling of suspended sediment concentration in such watersheds is of utmost importance due to flash flood phenomena, during which, large quantities of sediments and pollutants are carried downstream. The aim of this study is to develop a modeling framework for suspended sediment transport in a karstic watershed and assess the impact of climate change on flow, soil erosion and sediment transport in a hydrologically complex and intensively managed Mediterranean watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was coupled with a karstic flow and suspended sediment model in order to simulate the hydrology and sediment yield of the karstic springs and the whole watershed. Both daily flow data (2005-2014) and monthly sediment concentration data (2011-2014) were used for model calibration. The results showed good agreement between observed and modeled values for both flow and sediment concentration. Flash flood events account for 63-70% of the annual sediment export depending on a wet or dry year. Simulation results for a set of IPCC "A1B" climate change scenarios suggested that major decreases in surface flow (69.6%) and in the flow of the springs (76.5%) take place between the 2010-2049 and 2050-2090 time periods. An assessment of the future ecological flows revealed that the frequency of minimum flow events increases over the years. The trend of surface sediment export during these periods is also decreasing (54.5%) but the difference is not statistically significant due to the variability of the sediment. On the other hand, sediment originating from the springs is not affected significantly by climate change

  14. Applicability of ranked Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess the impact of climate change on Ganges: A case study.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anand, Jatin; Devak, Manjula; Gosain, Ashvani Kumar; Khosa, Rakesh; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The negative impact of climate change is felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watershed area, which can possibly outweighs the benefits of natural water system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been widely used as an input to a hydrological models (HMs), to simulate different hydrological components of a river basin. However, the coarser scale of GCMs and spatio-temporal biases, restricted its use at finer resolution. If downscaled, adds one more level of uncertainty i.e., downscaling uncertainty together with model and scenario uncertainty. The outputs computed from Regional Climate Models (RCM) may aid the uncertainties arising from GCMs, as the RCMs are the miniatures of GCMs. However, the RCMs do have some inherent systematic biases, hence bias correction is a prerequisite process before it is fed to HMs. RCMs, together with the input from GCMs at later boundaries also takes topography of the area into account. Hence, RCMs need to be ranked a priori. In this study, impact of climate change on the Ganga basin, India, is assessed using the ranked RCMs. Firstly, bias correction of 14 RCM models are done using Quantile-Quantile mapping and Equidistant cumulative distribution method, for historic (1990-2004) and future scenario (2021-2100), respectively. The runoff simulations from Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for historic scenario is used for ranking of RCMs. Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 method is employed to rank the RCMs based on five performance indicators namely, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), absolute normalised mean bias error (ANMBE) and average absolute relative error (AARE). The results illustrated that each of the performance indicators behaves differently for different RCMs. RCA 4 (CNRM-CERFACS) is found as the best model with the highest value of  (0.85), followed by RCA4 (MIROC) and RCA4 (ICHEC) with  values of 0.80 and 0

  15. Using NASA Earth Science Datasets for National Climate Assessment Indicators: Urban Impacts of Heat Waves Associated with Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sadoff, N.; Weber, S.; Zell, E. R.; de Sherbinin, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Climate-induced heat waves have been increasing globally in the past 5-10 years and are projected to continue increasing throughout the 21st century. In urban areas, heat waves are exacerbated by the non-climate stressor of urban heat islands (UHIs). The vulnerability of a city's population to heat waves reflects exposure to extreme heat events, sensitivity of the population to impacts, such as adverse health effects, and adaptive capacity to prepare for and respond to heat waves. Socially and economically vulnerable populations are especially at risk to the impacts of heat waves, due to increasing energy costs, air pollution, and heat-related illness and mortality. NASA earth science datasets, combined with socioeconomic data, can be used to create indicators that characterize vulnerability to urban heat events and address the effectiveness of adaptation measures designed to reduce local temperatures. The indicator development process should include engagement from local stakeholders and end users from the onset to ensure local relevance and, ultimately, indicator uptake and sustainability. This presentation will explore the process of working with urban stakeholders in Philadelphia to develop a set of policy-relevant, interdisciplinary vulnerability indicators focused on extreme heat events in urban areas. Ambient and land surface temperature, land cover classifications, NDVI, and US Census data are used to create a basket of indicators that reflect urban heat wave duration and intensity, UHI exposure, socioeconomic vulnerability, and adaptation effectiveness. These indicators can be assessed at the city level and also comparatively among different parts of a city to help quantify and track heat wave impacts on vulnerable populations and the effectiveness of adaptation measures.

  16. Improving models to assess impacts of climate change on Mediterranean water resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rocha, João; Carvalho Santos, Cláudia; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Alexandre Diogo, Paulo; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    In recent decades, water availability for human consumption has faced major constraints due to increasing pollution and reduced water availability. Water resources availability can gain additional stresses and pressures in the context of potential climate change scenarios. For the last decades, the climate change paradigm has been the scope of many researchers and the focus of decision makers, policies and environmental/climate legislation. Decision-makers face a wide range of constrains, as they are forced to define new strategies that merge planning, management and climate change adaptations. In turn, decision-makers must create integrated strategies aiming at the sustainable use of resources. There are multiple uncertainties associated with climate change impact assessment and water resources. Typically, most studies have dealt with uncertainties in emission scenarios and resulting socio-economic conditions, including land-use and water use. Less frequently, studies have address the disparities between the future climates generated by climate models for the same greenhouse gas concentrations; and the uncertainties related with the limited knowledge of how watersheds work, which also limits the capacity to simulate them with models. Therefore, the objective of this study is to apply the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model to a catchment in Alentejo, southern Portugal; and to evaluate the uncertainty associated both to the calibration of hydrological models and the use of different climate change scenarios and models (a combination of 4 GCM (General Circulation Models) and 1 RCM (Regional Circulation Models) for the scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The Alentejo region is highly vulnerable to the effects of potential climate changes with particular focus on water resources availability, despite several reservoirs used for freshwater supply and agriculture irrigation (e.g. the Alqueva reservoir - the largest artificial lake of the Iberian Peninsula

  17. Assessment of future impacts of potential climate change scenarios on aquifer recharge in continental Spain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, David; Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Alcalá, Francisco J.

    2017-04-01

    This research proposes and applies a method to assess potential impacts of future climatic scenarios on aquifer rainfall recharge in wide and varied regions. The continental Spain territory was selected to show the application. The method requires to generate future series of climatic variables (precipitation, temperature) in the system to simulate them within a previously calibrated hydrological model for the historical data. In a previous work, Alcalá and Custodio (2014) used the atmospheric chloride mass balance (CMB) method for the spatial evaluation of average aquifer recharge by rainfall over the whole of continental Spain, by assuming long-term steady conditions of the balance variables. The distributed average CMB variables necessary to calculate recharge were estimated from available variable-length data series of variable quality and spatial coverage. The CMB variables were regionalized by ordinary kriging at the same 4976 nodes of a 10 km x 10 km grid. Two main sources of uncertainty affecting recharge estimates (given by the coefficient of variation, CV), induced by the inherent natural variability of the variables and from mapping were segregated. Based on these stationary results we define a simple empirical rainfall-recharge model. We consider that spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and temperature are the most important climatic feature and variables influencing potential aquifer recharge in natural regime. Changes in these variables can be important in the assessment of future potential impacts of climatic scenarios over spatiotemporal renewable groundwater resource. For instance, if temperature increases, actual evapotranspitration (EA) will increases reducing the available water for others groundwater balance components, including the recharge. For this reason, instead of defining an infiltration rate coefficient that relates precipitation (P) and recharge we propose to define a transformation function that allows estimating the spatial

  18. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 1. Scenarios and Context

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.; Wigley, T. M.

    2005-04-01

    As CO2 and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three biophysical models. In this paper we present the climate change scenarios used to drive the impact analyses. The assumed levels of global-mean climate changes are discussed and placed in the context of recent work on climate-change scenarios for the next 100 years. The spatial variation of these changes given by the GCM results used for the impact analyses are also discussed.

  19. National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

  20. Assessing the Impact of Climatic Variability and Change on Maize Production in the Midwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andresen, J.; Jain, A. K.; Niyogi, D. S.; Alagarswamy, G.; Biehl, L.; Delamater, P.; Doering, O.; Elias, A.; Elmore, R.; Gramig, B.; Hart, C.; Kellner, O.; Liu, X.; Mohankumar, E.; Prokopy, L. S.; Song, C.; Todey, D.; Widhalm, M.

    2013-12-01

    Weather and climate remain among the most important uncontrollable factors in agricultural production systems. In this study, three process-based crop simulation models were used to identify the impacts of climate on the production of maize in the Midwestern U.S.A. during the past century. The 12-state region is a key global production area, responsible for more than 80% of U.S. domestic and 25% of total global production. The study is a part of the Useful to Useable (U2U) Project, a USDA NIFA-sponsored project seeking to improve the resilience and profitability of farming operations in the region amid climate variability and change. Three process-based crop simulation models were used in the study: CERES-Maize (DSSAT, Hoogenboom et al., 2012), the Hybrid-Maize model (Yang et al., 2004), and the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM, Song et al., 2013). Model validation was carried out with individual plot and county observations. The models were run with 4 to 50 km spatial resolution gridded weather data for representative soils and cultivars, 1981-2012, to examine spatial and temporal yield variability within the region. We also examined the influence of different crop models and spatial scales on regional scale yield estimation, as well as a yield gap analysis between observed and attainable yields. An additional study was carried out with the CERES-Maize model at 18 individual site locations 1901-2012 to examine longer term historical trends. For all simulations, all input variables were held constant in order to isolate the impacts of climate. In general, the model estimates were in good agreement with observed yields, especially in central sections of the region. Regionally, low precipitation and soil moisture stress were chief limitations to simulated crop yields. The study suggests that at least part of the observed yield increases in the region during recent decades have occurred as the result of wetter, less stressful growing season weather conditions.

  1. An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services.

    PubMed

    Verburg, Peter H; Koomen, Eric; Hilferink, Maarten; Pérez-Soba, Marta; Lesschen, Jan Peter

    Measures of climate change adaptation often involve modification of land use and land use planning practices. Such changes in land use affect the provision of various ecosystem goods and services. Therefore, it is likely that adaptation measures may result in synergies and trade-offs between a range of ecosystems goods and services. An integrative land use modelling approach is presented to assess such impacts for the European Union. A reference scenario accounts for current trends in global drivers and includes a number of important policy developments that correspond to on-going changes in European policies. The reference scenario is compared to a policy scenario in which a range of measures is implemented to regulate flood risk and protect soils under conditions of climate change. The impacts of the simulated land use dynamics are assessed for four key indicators of ecosystem service provision: flood risk, carbon sequestration, habitat connectivity and biodiversity. The results indicate a large spatial variation in the consequences of the adaptation measures on the provisioning of ecosystem services. Synergies are frequently observed at the location of the measures itself, whereas trade-offs are found at other locations. Reducing land use intensity in specific parts of the catchment may lead to increased pressure in other regions, resulting in trade-offs. Consequently, when aggregating the results to larger spatial scales the positive and negative impacts may be off-set, indicating the need for detailed spatial assessments. The modelled results indicate that for a careful planning and evaluation of adaptation measures it is needed to consider the trade-offs accounting for the negative effects of a measure at locations distant from the actual measure. Integrated land use modelling can help land use planning in such complex trade-off evaluation by providing evidence on synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services, different policy fields and societal

  2. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

    2011-12-01

    Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

  3. Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the Upper Senegal basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamine Mbaye, Mamadou; Hagemann, Stefan; Haensler, Andreas; Stacke, Tobias; Thierno Gaye, Amadou

    2015-04-01

    This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and the effect of statistical bias correction on the projected climate change signal in hydrological variables over the Upper Senegal Basin (West Africa). Original and bias corrected climate data from the regional climate model REMO were used as input for the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology-Hydrology Model (MPI-HM) to simulate river discharge, runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration. The results during the historical period (1971-2000) show that using the bias corrected input yields a better representation of the mean river flow regimes and the 10th and 90th percentiles of river flow at the outlet of the Upper Senegal Basin (USB). The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is 0.92 using the bias corrected input, which demonstrates the ability of the model in simulating river flow. The percent bias of 3.88% indicates a slight overestimation of the river flow by the model using the corrected input. The evaluation demonstrates the ability of the bias correction and its necessity for the simulation of historical river regimes. As for the potential changes of hydrological variables by the end of 21st century (2071-2100), a general decrease of river discharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture is found under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in all simulations. The decrease is higher under RCP8.5 with uncorrected data in the northern basin. However, there are some localized increases in some parts of the basin (e.g Guinean Highlands). The projected climate change signal of these above variables has the same spatial pattern and tendency for the uncorrected and bias corrected data although the magnitude of the corrected signal is somewhat lower than that uncorrected. Furthermore, the available water resources are projected to substantially decrease by more than -50% in the majority of the basin (especially in driest and hottest northern basin

  4. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  5. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, C.

    2013-05-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions are experiencing some of the most adverse impacts of climate change with increased heat waves, droughts, and extreme weather. These events will likely exacerbate socioeconomic and political instabilities in regions where the United States has vital strategic interests and ongoing military operations. The Southwest U.S. is strategically important in that it houses some of the most spatially expansive and important military installations in the country. The majority of severe weather events in the Southwest occur in association with the North American monsoon system (NAMS), and current observational record has shown a 'wet gets wetter and dry gets drier' global monsoon precipitation trend. We seek to evaluate the warm season extreme weather projection in the Southwest U.S., and how the extremes can affect Department of Defense (DoD) military facilities in that region. A baseline methodology is being developed to select extreme warm season weather events based on historical sounding data and moisture surge observations from Gulf of California. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)-type high resolution simulations will be performed for the extreme events identified from Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model simulations initiated from IPCC GCM and NCAR Reanalysis data in both climate control and climate change periods. The magnitude in extreme event changes will be analyzed, and the synoptic forcing patterns of the future severe thunderstorms will provide a guide line to assess if the military installations in the Southwest will become more or less susceptible to severe weather in the future.

  6. Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

    PubMed

    Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

    2017-01-01

    Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

  7. Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Flood Risk in the Red River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasmussen, P. F.

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, there have been a number of large spring floods in the Red River basin in the states of North Dakota and Minnesota, and in the Province of Manitoba. These recent floods have led to speculation that increased greenhouse gas concentrations may be changing precipitation patterns and impacting the frequency of floods. In this study, we investigate whether this is a reasonable assumption based on global climate model output. A regression model is developed to predict spring peak discharge on the Red River at a streamflow gage located at the border of the US and Canada. The predictor variables include antecedent fall precipitation used as a proxy for soil moisture at freeze-up, winter snow accumulation, and spring precipitation during the period of melt. Data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) have been used to calibrate the model. Bias-corrected projections from the CMIP5 GCM model ensemble are then used to predict floods in future years. The predicted floods are modeled using non-stationary frequency analysis. The use of multiple GCMs and multiple Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) allow for an estimate of uncertainty to be associated with the results. It is concluded that climate change will likely have an impact on floods in the Red River basin, but the uncertainty surrounding this assessment is rather large.

  8. Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobin, A.

    2009-04-01

    According to Global Circulation Model predictions, Belgium is situated on a wedge between a wetter and drier climatic regime. Observed changes show an increase of 1.3°C during the past decade, a higher frequency of warm summer days and a 6% increase in rainfall with a pronounced rise in winter precipitation of about 25% as compared to the normal (1961-1990). Since agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate variability and occupies more than 61% of the land surface in Flanders, the rural landscape will be confronted with profound changes. A combination of climate scenarios, production models and economic evaluation was used to assess climate impacts on agricultural goods & services, adaptation costs due to production losses and adaptation options. Agro-ecosystems offer a wide range of productive, supporting, regulating and cultural services to society. Productive services relate to crop, animal and energy production, but will alter with climate change. Supporting services such as biodiversity, soil and water quality will be negatively affected by a higher climate variability, increasing erosion and sediment transport, enhancing the breakdown of soil organic matter, lowering soil quality and increasing runoff or leaching of agri-chemicals. The effect of a warmer climate on regulating services is an intensification of most nutrient cycles with increased emissions, which may be compensated for by carbon storage in faster and longer growing crops. The need for flooding areas may result in a net-reduction of the agricultural area. A higher probability of dry weather during summer time and a longer growing season may enlarge the attraction of recreating in rural areas. Knowledge on the interaction of agro-ecosystem services and climate change is required to formulate sustainable adaptation measures. Heat stress and water shortages lead to reduced crop growth, whereas increased CO2-concentrations and a prolonged growing season have a positive effect on crop yields

  9. Assessment of Impacts of Climate Variability on Crop Yield over the Terai Region of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subedi, S.; Acharya, A.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural sector in Nepal which alone contributes about 42 % of the total GDP have a huge influence on national economy. This sector is very much susceptible to climate change. This study is emphasized on Terai region (situated at an altitude of 60m to 300m) of Nepal which investigates the impacts of climate variability on various stages of cropping (paddy) periods such as transplant, maturity and harvest. The climate variables namely temperature and rainfall are used to explore the relationship between climate and paddy yields based on 30 years of historical observed data. Observed monthly rainfall and temperature data are collected from the department of hydrology and meteorology, and paddy yield data are collected from the Ministry of Agricultural Development. A correlation analysis will be carried out between the backward difference filtered climate parameters and the backward difference filtered rice yield. This study will also analyze average monthly and annual rainfall, and, min, max and mean temperature during the period of 1981-2010 based on 15 synoptic stations of Nepal. This study will visualize rainfall and temperature distribution over Nepal, and also evaluate the effect of change in rainfall and temperature in the paddy yield. While evaluating the impacts of climate on crop yield, this study will not consider the impact of irrigation in crop yield. The major results, climate distribution and its local/regional impacts on agriculture, could be utilized by planners, decision makers, and climate and agricultural scientists as a basis in formulating/implementing future plans, policies and projects.

  10. A three-pillar approach to assessing climate impacts on low flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laaha, Gregor; Parajka, Juraj; Viglione, Alberto; Koffler, Daniel; Haslinger, Klaus; Schöner, Wolfgang; Zehetgruber, Judith; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-09-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a framework for assessing climate impacts on future low flows that combines different sources of information, termed pillars. To illustrate the framework three pillars are chosen: (a) extrapolation of observed low-flow trends into the future, (b) rainfall-runoff projections based on climate scenarios and (c) extrapolation of changing stochastic rainfall characteristics into the future combined with rainfall-runoff modelling. Alternative pillars could be included in the overall framework. The three pillars are combined by expert judgement based on a synoptic view of data, model outputs and process reasoning. The consistency/inconsistency between the pillars is considered an indicator of the certainty/uncertainty of the projections. The viability of the framework is illustrated for four example catchments from Austria that represent typical climate conditions in central Europe. In the Alpine region where winter low flows dominate, trend projections and climate scenarios yield consistently increasing low flows, although of different magnitudes. In the region north of the Alps, consistently small changes are projected by all methods. In the regions in the south and south-east, more pronounced and mostly decreasing trends are projected but there is disagreement in the magnitudes of the projected changes. The process reasons for the consistencies/inconsistencies are discussed. For an Alpine region such as Austria the key to understanding low flows is whether they are controlled by freezing and snowmelt processes, or by the summer moisture deficit associated with evaporation. It is argued that the three-pillar approach offers a systematic framework of combining different sources of information aimed at more robust projections than that obtained from each pillar alone.

  11. Impact assessment of climate change on tourism in the Pacific small islands based on the database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, S.; Utsumi, N.; Take, M.; Iida, A.

    2016-12-01

    This study aims to develop a new approach to assess the impact of climate change on the small oceanic islands in the Pacific. In the new approach, the change of the probabilities of various situations was projected with considering the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations, instead of projecting the most probable situation. The database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF) is a database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments, which has the results of 100 ensemble simulations. We utilized the database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), which was (a long-term and high-resolution database) composed of results of 100 ensemble experiments. A new methodology, Multi Threshold Ensemble Assessment (MTEA), was developed using the d4PDF in order to assess the impact of climate change. We focused on the impact of climate change on tourism because it has played an important role in the economy of the Pacific Islands. The Yaeyama Region, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan, was selected as the case study site. Two kinds of impact were assessed: change in probability of extreme climate phenomena and tourist satisfaction associated with weather. The database of long-term high-resolution climate ensemble experiments and the questionnaire survey conducted by a local government were used for the assessment. The result indicated that the strength of extreme events would be increased, whereas the probability of occurrence would be decreased. This change should result in increase of the number of clear days and it could contribute to improve the tourist satisfaction.

  12. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.

  13. Assessing extratropical impact on the tropical bias in coupled climate model with regional coupled data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, F.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; Jacob, R.

    2017-04-01

    The tropical bias of double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has been a persistent feature in global climate models. It remains unclear how much of it is attributed to local and remote processes, respectively. Here we assess the extratropical influence on the tropical bias in a coupled general circulation model dynamically, systematically, and quantitatively using the Regional Coupled Data Assimilation (RCDA) method. RCDA experiments show that the model's double-ITCZ bias is improved systematically when sea surface temperature, air temperature, and wind are corrected toward real-world data from the extratropics into the tropics progressively. Quantitatively, the tropical asymmetry bias in precipitation and surface temperature is reduced by 40% due to extratropical impact from outside of 25°. Coupled dynamics, as well as atmospheric and oceanic processes, play important roles in this extratropical-to-tropical teleconnection. Energetic analysis of cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport and equatorial net energy input are used to explain the changes in the precipitation bias.

  14. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  15. The utilization of research-based information: Moving beyond communicating assessments of (climate) impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.; Cohen, S. J.

    2006-12-01

    Societal impacts of changing environments include primary or direct effects (increased soil moisture, loss of life, crop and building damage etc.), secondary or indirect effects (displacement, illness) and, higher order or systemic effects (debt, loss of livelihood). Vulnerability to such events is constructed from: (1) the timing, magnitude, spatial extent, and duration of the physical hazard i.e. risk of occurrence; (2) exposure in regions of risk e.g. population, property; and, (3) factors that pre-condition the degree of impact and the capacity to respond and recover. The call for better articulated decision support and services components is rising on par with more traditional axes of assessments i.e. characterizing the integrated physical system and its social and environmental impacts. The expectation is that increasing the rate at which policy makers and resource managers acquire knowledge about environment-society interactions will result in improvements in the quality of public and private decisions (a decidedly idealized view). Much recent work has shown that this expectation is most difficult to meet when decision stakes are high, uncertainty is great, technologies are new, experience is limited, and there are unequal distributions of burdens and benefits. We review generalized frames of reference on the use of climate information identified in independent studies undertaken by the authors in different river basins of North America. As shown in these (and other) studies, researchers, policy-makers and practitioners (public and private) operate on different time-lines, use different languages, and most importantly respond to different problem definitions and accountability incentives. The process of communication is increasingly recognized to be complex, transactional, and heavily dependent on the potential user's pre-existing knowledge, beliefs and experiences. We outline differing approaches to risk communication and their associated assumptions

  16. Assessment of climate change impact on floods in the Upper Prut and Tisza River catchments (Ukraine)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Didovets, Iulii; Krysanova, Valentina; Snizhko, Sergiy; Bronstert, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Changes in hydrological extremes become more significant in the climate change context. Due to the increasing trends of floods in recent decades in Ukraine and accompanied with high risk of social and economic loses, the potential changes in flood frequency are of high importance. The problem of climate change impact on hydrological extremes for Ukrainian region is not developed on sufficient level and more studies are needed. The projections of changes in floods associate with high uncertainties and depend of climate scenarios. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on hydrological extreme events, using a set of 7 climate scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 based on GCMs that have been downscaled RCMs from IMPRESSIONS project, and detect the changes using the eco-hydrological model SWIM in Upper Prut and Tisza River catchments.

  17. Heat, Human Performance, and Occupational Health: A Key Issue for the Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts.

    PubMed

    Kjellstrom, Tord; Briggs, David; Freyberg, Chris; Lemke, Bruno; Otto, Matthias; Hyatt, Olivia

    2016-01-01

    Ambient heat exposure is a well-known health hazard, which reduces human performance and work capacity at heat levels already common in tropical and subtropical areas. Various health problems have been reported. Increasing heat exposure during the hottest seasons of each year is a key feature of global climate change. Heat exhaustion and reduced human performance are often overlooked in climate change health impact analysis. Later this century, many among the four billion people who live in hot areas worldwide will experience significantly reduced work capacity owing to climate change. In some areas, 30-40% of annual daylight hours will become too hot for work to be carried out. The social and economic impacts will be considerable, with global gross domestic product (GDP) losses greater than 20% by 2100. The analysis to date is piecemeal. More analysis of climate change-related occupational health impact assessments is greatly needed.

  18. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia; Wehner, Michael; O'Neill, Brian; Jahn, Alexandra; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Strand, Warren G.; Lin, Lei; Knutti, Reto; Lamarque, Jean Francois

    2017-09-01

    The Paris Agreement of December 2015 stated a goal to pursue efforts to keep global temperatures below 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and well below 2 °C. The IPCC was charged with assessing climate impacts at these temperature levels, but fully coupled equilibrium climate simulations do not currently exist to inform such assessments. In this study, we produce a set of scenarios using a simple model designed to achieve long-term 1.5 and 2 °C temperatures in a stable climate. These scenarios are then used to produce century-scale ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model, providing impact-relevant long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 and 2 °C levels and an overshoot 1.5 °C case, which are realized (for the 21st century) in the coupled model and are freely available to the community. Here we describe the design of the simulations and a brief overview of their impact-relevant climate response. Exceedance of historical record temperature occurs with 60 % greater frequency in the 2 °C climate than in a 1.5 °C climate aggregated globally, and with twice the frequency in equatorial and arid regions. Extreme precipitation intensity is statistically significantly higher in a 2.0 °C climate than a 1.5 °C climate in some specific regions (but not all). The model exhibits large differences in the Arctic, which is ice-free with a frequency of 1 in 3 years in the 2.0 °C scenario, and 1 in 40 years in the 1.5 °C scenario. Significance of impact differences with respect to multi-model variability is not assessed.

  19. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as par...

  20. Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change threatens human health and well-being in the United States. To address this growing threat, the Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), a working group of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP), has developed this assessment as par...

  1. Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

    2017-04-01

    This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

  2. Climate change impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services in the United States: Process and prospects for sustained assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grimm, Nancy B.; Groffman, Peter M; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Tallis, Heather

    2016-01-01

    The third United States National Climate Assessment emphasized an evaluation of not just the impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems, but also the impacts of climate change on the benefits that people derive from nature, known as ecosystem services. The ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services component of the assessment largely drew upon the findings of a transdisciplinary workshop aimed at developing technical input for the assessment, involving participants from diverse sectors. A small author team distilled and synthesized this and hundreds of other technical input to develop the key findings of the assessment. The process of developing and ranking key findings hinged on identifying impacts that had particular, demonstrable effects on the U.S. public via changes in national ecosystem services. Findings showed that ecosystem services are threatened by the impacts of climate change on water supplies, species distributions and phenology, as well as multiple assaults on ecosystem integrity that, when compounded by climate change, reduce the capacity of ecosystems to buffer against extreme events. As ecosystems change, such benefits as water sustainability and protection from storms that are afforded by intact ecosystems are projected to decline across the continent due to climate change. An ongoing, sustained assessment that focuses on the co-production of actionable climate science will allow scientists from a range of disciplines to ascertain the capability of their forecasting models to project environmental and ecological change and link it to ecosystem services; additionally, an iterative process of evaluation, development of management strategies, monitoring, and reevaluation will increase the applicability and usability of the science by the U.S. public.

  3. Impact of large-scale climate variability and change on crop yields in Africa: An observational assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smoliak, B. V.; Po-Chedley, S.; Cullen, A. C.

    2011-12-01

    Assessments of the relationships between climate and agricultural production have progressed from opposite ends of the spatio-temporal spectrum. While studies of global-scale climate-yield relationships have provided estimates of the impact of multi-decadal trends in temperature and precipitation on recent production, studies of local weather impacts on yield have demonstrated the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on plant physiology, particularly with respect to the duration and timing of extremes. At intermediate spatial and temporal scales, somewhat of a gap in understanding exists. Our investigation contributes to better understanding climate-yield relationships at intermediate scales by assessing the impact of climate variability on crop yields at the country to continent scale on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Toward this end, we employ historical climatic data and reported cereal crop yields from the African continent, 1961 to 2009, in conjunction with principal component regression and partial least squares regression. Our results show that a discrete set of spatial patterns of climate variability account for up to half of the year-to-year variability in crop yields over portions of Africa. The impact of this climate variability is particularly strong in Sub-Saharan Africa, where large or prolonged deficits in yields can result in food shortages. The fundamental patterns of variability used to explain yield fluctuations are based on temperature and precipitation, chosen due to their influence on plant physiology; however, the time-varying behavior of the patterns may also be linked to coherent large-scale climate variability through regressions with sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and low-level wind fields. Results are distilled in terms of five UN designated geographic regions of Africa. Implications for short-term food security and future climate change are discussed.

  4. Assessing the Impacts of Climate, Groundwater and Land Use on Regional Geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barkwith, A.; Hurst, M. D.; Ellis, M. A.; Coulthard, T. J.

    2014-12-01

    The CLiDE (CAESAR-Lisflood-DESC) platform integrates a variety of modelling components, in order to represent coupled environmental processes and assess their co-evolution over daily to centennial time-scales. A distributed surface-subsurface water partitioning component lies conceptually at the platform centre; providing the key linkages between the atmospheric, sediment transport and vegetation components. Fluvial sediment transport is simulated using the CAESAR model, which has previously been used to investigate a variety of sediment transport, erosional and depositional processes at centennial to millennial scales. Driving CAESAR with a higher resolution, distributed hydrology allows CLiDE to effectively capture geomorphological features that operate at sub-centennial timescales. Non-fluvial sediment transport at the mesoscale is handled by a debris flow component, which drives sediment transport through exchanges of energy and is triggered through modification of local gradient and hydrology. The coupled nature of the platform allows a variety of geomorphological assessments to be undertaken. We present a variety of regional scale, modelling case studies, which assess the impacts of climate, groundwater and land use on geomorphology. We investigate the non-linear influence of these drivers on the spatial and temporal evolution of river basins and find that antecedent conditions can have a major influence on future erosion events.

  5. A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment.

    PubMed

    Gallina, Valentina; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Sperotto, Anna; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents a review of existing multi-risk assessment concepts and tools applied by organisations and projects providing the basis for the development of a multi-risk methodology in a climate change perspective. Relevant initiatives were developed for the assessment of multiple natural hazards (e.g. floods, storm surges, droughts) affecting the same area in a defined timeframe (e.g. year, season, decade). Major research efforts were focused on the identification and aggregation of multiple hazard types (e.g. independent, correlated, cascading hazards) by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Moreover, several methodologies aim to assess the vulnerability of multiple targets to specific natural hazards by means of vulnerability functions and indicators at the regional and local scale. The overall results of the review show that multi-risk approaches do not consider the effects of climate change and mostly rely on the analysis of static vulnerability (i.e. no time-dependent vulnerabilities, no changes among exposed elements). A relevant challenge is therefore to develop comprehensive formal approaches for the assessment of different climate-induced hazards and risks, including dynamic exposure and vulnerability. This requires the selection and aggregation of suitable hazard and vulnerability metrics to make a synthesis of information about multiple climate impacts, the spatial analysis and ranking of risks, including their visualization and communication to end-users. To face these issues, climate impact assessors should develop cross-sectorial collaborations among different expertise (e.g. modellers, natural scientists, economists) integrating information on climate change scenarios with sectorial climate impact assessment, towards the development of a comprehensive multi-risk assessment process. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. [Assessment of eco-climatic suitability and climate change impacts of/on broad-leaved Korean pine forest in northeast China].

    PubMed

    Wu, Zhengfang

    2003-05-01

    Based on growing degree days (GDD) and potential evapotranspiration ratio (PER), the temperature-water effect function (f(GDD, PER)) was established and the assessment of eco-climatic suitability and climate change impacts of/on broadleaved Korean pine forests in Northeast China was studied. The results showed that the present distribution area of broad-leaved Korean pine forests in Northeast China was 39.99 km2, which included the optimum distribution area 7.13 km2, suitable area 12.27 km2, and marginal area 20.59 km2. Under GISS and OSU climate change scenarios, the climate of Northeast China changed to warming and dry in some degree. Under this tendency, the distribution area of broad-leaved Korean pine forests would be reduced, and the eco-climatic suitability would be declined.

  7. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    aspects of climate change can impact contaminant availability and threatened, endangered , and at-risk species (TER-S) of terrestrial habitats on military...Threatened and endangered species (also top-level predators and other keystone species ) • Wetlands • Grassland/Rangeland plant communities • Microbial...contaminants as well as emerging contaminants (e.g., nanomaterials), and invasive species /pathogens What are the mechanisms by which aspects of climate

  8. Medical intelligence article: assessing the impact on global climate from general anesthetic gases.

    PubMed

    Sulbaek Andersen, Mads P; Nielsen, Ole J; Wallington, Timothy J; Karpichev, Boris; Sander, Stanley P

    2012-05-01

    Although present in the atmosphere with a combined concentration approximately 100,000 times lower than carbon dioxide (i.e., the principal anthropogenic driver of climate change), halogenated organic compounds are responsible for a warming effect of approximately 10% to 15% of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of climate, as measured relative to the start of the industrial era (approximately 1750). The family of anesthetic gases includes several halogenated organic compounds that are strong greenhouse gases. In this short report, we provide an overview of the state of knowledge regarding the impact of anesthetic gas release on the environment, with particular focus on its contribution to the radiative forcing of climate change.

  9. On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2015-04-01

    Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

  10. Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. forests, wood-product markets, and forest recreation

    Treesearch

    Lloyd C. Irland; Darius Adams; Ralph Alig; Carter J. Betz; Chi-Chung Chen; Mark Hutchins; Bruce A. McCarl; Ken Skog; Brent L. Sohngen

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the problems of projecting social and economic changes affecting forests and review recent efforts to assess the wood-market impacts of possible climate changes. To illustrate the range of conditions encountered in projecting socioeconomic change linked to forests, we consider two markedly different uses: forest products markets and forest...

  11. An assessment of climate change impacts on maize yields in Hebei Province of China.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yongfu; Han, Xinru; Si, Wei; Wu, Zhigang; Chien, Hsiaoping; Okamoto, Katsuo

    2017-03-01

    The climate change impacts on maize yields are quantified in this paper using statistical models with panel data from 3731 farmers' observations across nine sample villages in Hebei Province of China. The marginal impacts of climate change and the simulated impacts on maize yields based on scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 from the global climate models of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 5 (MIROC5) and Meteorological Research Institute Coupled General Circulation Model version 3 (MRI-CGCM3) were then calculated, analyzed, and explained. The results indicate that, first, the most important finding was that climate change impacts on maize yields were significant and a 1°C warming or a 1mm decrease in precipitation resulted in a 150.255kg or a 1.941kg loss in maize yields per hectare, respectively. Second, villages with latitudes of less than 39.832 and longitudes of more than 114.839 in Hebei province suffered losses due to warm weather. Third, the simulated impacts for the full sample are all negative based on scenarios from MIROC5, and their magnitudes are more than those of MRI-CGCM3 are. Based on scenarios in the 2050s, the biggest loss for maize yields per hectare for the full sample accounts for about one-tenth of the mean maize yield from 2004 to 2010, and all of the villages are impacted. Hence, it is important to help farms adopt an adaptation strategy to tackle the risk of loss for maize yields from climate change, and it is necessary to develop agricultural synthesis services as a public adaptation policy at the village level to interact with the adaptation strategy at the farm level.

  12. Assessing the impact of climate-change scenarios on landslide occurrence in Umbria Region, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciabatta, L.; Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Ponziani, F.; Stelluti, M.; Berni, N.; Moramarco, T.

    2016-10-01

    Landslides are frequent and widespread geomorphological phenomena causing loss of human life and damage to property. The main tool for assessing landslide risk relies on rainfall thresholds and thus, many countries established early warning systems aimed to landslide hazard assessment. The Umbria Region Civil Protection Centre developed an operational early warning system for landslide risk assessment, named PRESSCA, based on the soil saturation conditions to identify rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, currently used by the Civil Protection operators for the day-by-day landslide hazard assessment, provided satisfactory results with more than 86% of the landslides events correctly identified during the period 1990-2013. In this study, the PRESSCA system was employed for the assessment of climate change impact on landslide hazard in Central Italy. The outputs of five different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled and weather generators were used for obtaining hourly rainfall and temperature time series from daily GCMs projection. Then, PRESSCA system was employed to estimate the number of landslide occurrence per year. By comparing results obtained for three different periods (1990-2013 (baseline), 2040-2069 and 2070-2099), for the Umbria territory a general increase in events occurrence was expected (up to more than 40%) in the future period, mainly during the winter season. The results also revealed that the effect of climate change on landslides was not straightforward to identify and the close interaction between rainfall magnitude/intensity, temperature and soil moisture should be analysed in depth. Overall, soil moisture was projected to decrease throughout the year but during the wet season the variations with respect to the present period were very small. Specifically, it was found that during the warm-dry season, due to the strong decrease of soil moisture, even for a sensible increase in rainfall intensity, the landslide occurrence was

  13. The role of water reservoir operation in climate change impact assessments: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

    2015-04-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Although many river basins are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the economy, and the environment, the operations of many water resource systems are still designed on the basis of the observed historical hydrologic variability. Yet, under changing hydroclimatic forcing, no guarantee exists that policies optimized over the past will not fail in coming years. This work explores the impact of projected climate change and the associated uncertainty on the policy performance for different future time horizons. A perturbed physics ensemble of projected hydroclimatic conditions based on the HadCM3 General Circulation Modelis is used to simulate the whole set of Pareto optimal policies over the different futures. The changes in the overall system performance and the evolution of each single-tradeoff are analyzed to improve our understanding of the system's vulnerabilities. The study is developed on the Red-Thai Binh River system, Vietnam. The Red River Basin is the second largest basin of Vietnam, draining an area of about 169,000 km2, and comprises three main tributaries and several reservoirs, namely SonLa and HoaBinh on the Da River, ThacBa and TuyenQuang on the Lo River. These reservoirs are regulated for maximizing hydropower production, mitigating downstream flood, primarily in Hanoi, and guaranteeing irrigation water supply to the agricultural districts in the delta. We address the challenges of the policy design problem (e.g., dimensionality of the system, number of objectives involved) by adopting the evolutionary multi-objective direct policy search (EMODPS), an approximate dynamic programming method that combines direct policy search, nonlinear approximating networks and multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to design Pareto approximate operating policies for multi

  14. Regional Climate Change Scenarios in High Resolution for Impact Assessment in Central and Eastern Europe - Project CECILIA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halenka, T.

    2009-09-01

    Resolution of regional climate simulation is an important factor affecting the accuracy of dynamical downscaling of the global changes. Especially the extremes are strongly dependent on the terrain patterns as shape of orography or land use, which can contribute to extreme temperatures or precipitation appearance and distribution. Project EC FP6 CECILIA (Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and Vulnerability Assessment) is studying the impact of climate change in complex topography of the Central and Eastern Europe in very high resolution of 10 km. The impacts on agriculture, forestry, hydrology and air-quality are studied within the project, and precise information from regional climate simulations is necessary. Basic validation and verification of ERA40 driven simulations by RegCM and ALADIN-Climate used for simulations in targeted regions as well as discussion of the climate change signal in these regions for time slices 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 is provided with respect to control period 1961-1990. Some impact applications in the sectors mentioned above will be shown as well.

  15. Climate Change and Air Pollution-Related Health Impacts in the United States: Assessment of Current Findings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinney, P.; Fann, N.

    2016-12-01

    Ambient air pollution can be affected by climate in a variety of ways, which in turn have important implications for human health. Observed and projected changes in climate lead to modified weather pat­terns and biogenic emissions, which influence the levels and geographic patterns of outdoor air pollutants of health concern, including ground-level ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The USGCRP scientific assessment of the human health impacts of climate change concluded with high confidence that climate change will make it harder for any given regulatory approach to reduce ground-level ozone pollution in the future as meteorological conditions become increasingly conducive to forming ozone over most of the United States. Unless offset by additional emissions reductions of ozone precursors, these climate-driven increases in ozone will cause premature deaths, hospital visits, lost school days, and acute respiratory symptoms. The evidence for climate impacts on PM2.5 is less robust than that for ozone. However, one mechanism through which climate change is likely to affect PM2.5 as well as O3 in the United States is via impacts on wildfires. Wildfires emit precursors of both fine particles and O3, which increase the risk of premature death and adverse chronic and acute cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. Climate change is projected to increase the number and severity of naturally occurring wildfires in parts of the United States, increasing emissions of particulate matter and ozone precursors and resulting in additional adverse health outcomes. We present the key results and conclusions from a nationwide assessment of O3 health impacts in 2030, as well as new evidence for respiratory health effects of wildfires in the western United States.

  16. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2013-12-01

    Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

  17. Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

    PubMed

    Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced

  18. Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

    2014-09-01

    Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that

  19. Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America.

    PubMed

    Case, Michael J; Lawler, Joshua J

    2017-05-01

    Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate-driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species-specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate-driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over-predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Vulnerability and impact assessment of extreme climatic event: A case study of southern Punjab, Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Aslam, Abdul Qayyum; Ahmad, Sajid R; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Hussain, Yawar; Hussain, Muhammad Sameem

    2017-02-15

    Understanding of frequency, severity, damages and adaptation costs of climate extremes is crucial to manage their aftermath. Evaluation of PRECIS RCM modelled data under IPCC scenarios in Southern Punjab reveals that monthly mean temperature is 30°C under A2 scenario, 2.4°C higher than A1B which is 27.6°C in defined time lapses. Monthly mean precipitation under A2 scenario ranges from 12 to 15mm and for A1B scenario it ranges from 15 to 19mm. Frequency modelling of floods and droughts via poisson distribution shows increasing trend in upcoming decades posing serious impacts on agriculture and livestock, food security, water resources, public health and economic status. Cumulative loss projected for frequent floods without adaptation will be in the range of USD 66.8-79.3 billion in time lapse of 40years from 2010 base case. Drought damage function @ 18% for A2 scenario and @ 13.5% for A1B scenario was calculated; drought losses on agriculture and livestock sectors were modelled. Cumulative loss projected for frequent droughts without adaptation under A2 scenario will be in the range of USD 7.5-8.5 billion while under A1B scenario it will be in the range of USD 3.5-4.2 billion for time lapse of 60years from base case 1998-2002. Severity analysis of extreme events shows that situation get worse if adaptations are not only included in the policy but also in the integrated development framework with required allocation of funds. This evaluation also highlights the result of cost benefit analysis, benefits of the adaptation options (mean & worst case) for floods and droughts in Southern Punjab. Additionally the research highlights the role of integrated extreme events impact assessment methodology in performing the vulnerability assessments and to support the adaptation decisions. This paper is an effort to highlight importance of bottom up approaches to deal with climate change.

  1. Assessing the impacts of climate change on the forested watersheds in Korea using RCM scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, H.; Yoon, J. H.; Jeon, S. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has significant effects on water resources in Korea, where about the 70% of areas are forested, by direct and indirect ways such as changes in forest species distribution and the growth rates. We explored the effect of climate change on water balance in the eight forested DAM watersheds by using a process-based hydrological model which integrates the various mechanisms of forest hydrology and developed the simplified impact response model to quantify the regional-scale impacts. As the first step of study, the GIS-based BROOK90 (gB90), operated on a grid resolution of 5×5 arc minute resolution under the RCP-based regional climate model (RCM) scenarios. To separate the effects of ecosystem functioning and distribution changes from the overall runoff change, modeling has conducted based on the three novel approaches of climate change with a doubled CO2 concentration, increases in the deciduous forest fraction at each watershed, and three RCM climate change. The results of the process-based model study are extended to develop the impact response model to assist policy makers to derive informed decisions in land, forest and water management.

  2. An automated system for access to derived climate indices in support of ecological impacts assessments and resource management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.

    2012-12-01

    A U.S. Geological Survey team is working with several providers to establish standard data services for the climate projection data they host. To meet the needs of climate adaptation science and landscape management communities, the team is establishing a set of climate index calculation algorithms that will consume data from various providers and provide directly useful data derivatives. Climate projections coming from various scenarios, modeling centers, and downscaling methods are increasing in number and size. Global change impact modeling and assessment, generally, requires inputs in the form of climate indices or values derived from raw climate projections. This requirement puts a large burden on a community not familiar with climate data formats, semantics, and processing techniques and requires storage capacity and computing resources out of the reach of most. In order to fully understand the implications of our best available climate projections, assessments must take into account an ensemble of climate projections and potentially a range of parameters for calculation of climate indices. These requirements around data access and processing are not unique from project to project, or even among projected climate data sets, pointing to the need for a reusable tool to generate climate indices. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a pilot application and supporting web service framework that automates the generation of climate indices. The web service framework consists of standards-based data servers and a data integration broker. The resulting system allows data producers to publish and maintain ownership of their data and data consumers to access climate derivatives via a simple to use "data product ordering" workflow. Data access and processing is completed on enterprise "cloud" computing resources and only the relatively small, derived climate indices are delivered to the scientist or land manager. These services will assist the scientific and land

  3. Interdisciplinary assessment of sea-level rise and climate change impacts on the lower Nile delta, Egypt.

    PubMed

    Sušnik, Janez; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia S; Baumert, Niklas; Kloos, Julia; Renaud, Fabrice G; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Mabrouk, Badr; Savić, Dragan A; Kapelan, Zoran; Ludwig, Ralf; Fischer, Georg; Roson, Roberto; Zografos, Christos

    2015-01-15

    CLImate-induced changes on WAter and SECurity (CLIWASEC) was a cluster of three complementary EC-FP7 projects assessing climate-change impacts throughout the Mediterranean on: hydrological cycles (CLIMB - CLimate-Induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean Basins); water security (WASSERMed - Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean) and human security connected with possible hydro-climatic conflicts (CLICO - CLImate change hydro-COnflicts and human security). The Nile delta case study was common between the projects. CLIWASEC created an integrated forum for modelling and monitoring to understand potential impacts across sectors. This paper summarises key results from an integrated assessment of potential challenges to water-related security issues, focusing on expected sea-level rise impacts by the middle of the century. We use this common focus to illustrate the added value of project clustering. CLIWASEC pursued multidisciplinary research by adopting a single research objective: sea-level rise related water security threats, resulting in a more holistic view of problems and potential solutions. In fragmenting research, policy-makers can fail to understand how multiple issues can materialize from one driver. By combining efforts, an integrated assessment of water security threats in the lower Nile is formulated, offering policy-makers a clearer picture of inter-related issues to society and environment. The main issues identified by each project (land subsidence, saline intrusion - CLIMB; water supply overexploitation, land loss - WASSERMed; employment and housing security - CLICO), are in fact related. Water overexploitation is exacerbating land subsidence and saline intrusion, impacting on employment and placing additional pressure on remaining agricultural land and the underdeveloped housing market. All these have wider implications for regional development. This richer understanding could be critical in making better

  4. Assessment of climate and land use changes impacts on the rivers inflow to the Lake Baikal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurovskaia, Victoriia; Semenova, Olga; Vinogradova, Tatyana

    2016-04-01

    Baikal is the deepest lake in the world and one of the biggest reservoirs of fresh water. The aim of this research was to analyze the long-term variability of characteristics of river inflow to the Lake using the historical data and project possible changes in the face of non-stationary climate and land use based on hydrological modelling. The basin of the Lake Baikal has area about 545 000 km2, half of which is situated in Russia. It is characterized by different climate and landscape conditions with annual flow depth varying from 30 to more than 600 mm. Nowadays active development and use of natural resources as well as climate changes have a strong impact on the regime of rivers inflow to the Lake. The watersheds response caused by environmental non-stationarity can be variable and unpredictable. Therefore adequate hydrological models with robust parametrization are required for future projections. This study consisted of two parts. Initially we compiled the database of daily runoff data for about 50 gauges in the basin of the Baikal Lake with continuous period of observations 30-50 years. The data was used to assess the characteristics of river inflow to the Lake for the historical period and estimate observed changes due to current climate change. For the development of future projections we have chosen several small and middle-size representative watersheds in different parts of the Lake basin with area from 151 to 7800 km2 and various types of hydrological regime. The data base for modelling was developed which included the information about landscapes, soils, dominating hydrological processes. The hydrological model parameters for different dominant landscapes were estimated based on that information. We applied distributed process-based hydrological model Hydrograph developed in State Hydrological Institute, Russia (Vinogradov et al., 2011; Semenova et al., 2013). It describes all essential processes of land hydrological cycle including detailed algorithm

  5. Assessment of climate change impacts on groundwater resources: the case study of Veneto and Friuli plain in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Critto, Andrea; Pasini, Sara; Torresan, Silvia; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Climate change will have different impacts on water resources and water-dependent services worldwide. In particular, climate-related risks for groundwater and related ecosystems pose great concern to scientists and water authorities involved in the protection of these valuable resources. Research is needed to better understand how climate change will impact groundwater resources in specific regions and places and to develop predictive tools for their sustainable management, copying with the envisaged effects of global climate change and the key principles of EU water policy. Within the European project Life+ TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groundwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change), a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was developed in order to identify impacts from climate change on groundwater and associated ecosystems (e.g. surface waters, agricultural areas, natural environments) and to rank areas and receptors at risk in the high and middle Veneto and Friuli Plain (Italy). Based on an integrated analysis of impacts, vulnerability and risks linked to climate change at the regional scale, a RRA framework complying with the Sources-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) approach was defined. Relevant impacts on groundwater and surface waters (i.e. groundwater level variations, changes in nitrate infiltration processes, changes in water availability for irrigation) were selected and analyzed through hazard scenario, exposure, susceptibility and risk assessment. The RRA methodology used hazard scenarios constructed through global and high resolution models simulations for the 2071-2100 period, according with IPCC A1B emission scenario in order to produce useful indications for future risk prioritization and to support the addressing of adaptation measures, primarily Managed Artificial Recharge (MAR) techniques. Relevant outcomes from the described RRA application highlighted that potential climate change impacts will occur

  6. Probabilistic Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change: An Illustration of Coffee Production in Veracruz.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gay, C.; Estrada, F.; Conde, C.

    2007-05-01

    The assessment of the potential impacts of climate change in productive activities has been limited to particular estimations that do not consider the inherent variability and uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic variables. This approach can only provide a limited evaluation of risk under climate change conditions since it accounts only for changes in mean conditions and therefore it evaluates the mean impact. In this work Monte Carlo methods are utilized as a mean for approximating the probability density function of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico and of the income of the average producer under 1) different climate change scenarios which include climate variability and uncertainty in economic variables; 2) uncertainty in climate change scenarios is added by means of normal and uniform probability distributions. Results show that for year 2050, depending on the emissions scenario, coffee production could diminish between a 22 and a 55% and production variability could increase as much as 266%. When uncertainty in climate change scenarios is included, probability distributions for production and income become less informative for decision-making and imply further reductions in their expected values and increases in their variability. Nevertheless, all production and income scenarios indicate that for the average producer this activity will become no longer profitable and that potential expected losses could become almost six times larger than in present conditions.

  7. A terrestrial lidar assessment of climate change impacts on forest structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Aardt, J. A.; Kelbe, D.; Sacca, K.; Giardina, C. P.; Selmants, P. C.; Litton, C. M.; Asner, G. P.

    2016-12-01

    The projected impact of climate change on ecosystems has received much scientific attention, specifically related to geographical species shifts and carbon allocation. This study, however, was undertaken to assess the expected changes in tropical forest structure as a function of changing temperatures. Our study area is a constrained model ecological system and is located on the eastern flank of Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawaii, USA. Nine plots from this closed-canopy, tropical montane wet forest fall along an elevation-based 5.2°C mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient, where multiple other biotic and abiotic factors are held nearly constant. This MAT gradient has been used to assess subtle temperature effects on ecosystem functioning including carbon cycles, but less has been done on the effects of temperature on vegetation structure. We acquired vegetation structural data using a SICK-LMS151 terrestrial laser scanner (905 nm) for full 270x360° coverage. This Compact Biomass Lidar (CBL) was developed by Rochester Institute of Technology and the University of Massachusetts, Boston. Data for each plot along the temperature gradient were collected in a 20 m x 20 m configuration at a 5 m scan spacing. Initial challenges, related to the irregular radial scan pattern and registration of 25 scans per plot, were addressed in order to extract normalized vegetation density metrics and to mitigate occlusion effects, respectively. However, we believe that the CBL scans can be assessed independently, i.e., treating 25 scans/plot as a population sample. We derived height statistics, return density metrics, canopy rugosity, and higher-order metrics in order to describe the differences in vegetation structure, which ultimately will be tied to the elevation-induced temperature range. We hypothesized that, for this MAT gradient (i) vertical vegetation stratification; (ii) diameter distributions; and (iii) aboveground biomass will differ significantly, while more species

  8. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Antle, J. M.; Elliott, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIP's community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPs/SSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate change's impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIP's 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  9. The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Elliott, Joshua; Antle, John

    2015-01-01

    The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment

  10. Northwest Climate Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mote, P.; Dalton, M. M.; Snover, A. K.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the US National Climate Assessment, the Northwest region undertook a process of climate risk assessment. This process included an expert evaluation of previously identified impacts, their likelihoods, and consequences, and engaged experts from both academia and natural resource management practice (federal, tribal, state, local, private, and non-profit) in a workshop setting. An important input was a list of 11 risks compiled by state agencies in Oregon and similar adaptation efforts in Washington. By considering jointly the likelihoods, consequences, and adaptive capacity, participants arrived at an approximately ranked list of risks which was further assessed and prioritized through a series of risk scoring exercises to arrive at the top three climate risks facing the Northwest: 1) changes in amount and timing of streamflow related to snowmelt, causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences; 2) coastal erosion and inundation, and changing ocean acidity, combined with low adaptive capacity in the coastal zone to create large risks; and 3) the combined effects of wildfire, insect outbreaks, and diseases will cause large areas of forest mortality and long-term transformation of forest landscapes.

  11. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  12. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

    2017-03-28

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

  13. Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

    PubMed

    Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  14. Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

    2009-05-01

    The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

  15. Assessment of impacts of climate change on gender in the context of Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paudel, R.; Acharya, A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and its impact on gender in the context of Nepal has not been clearly understood due to lack of proper scientific research in terms of gender and climate change. Climate induced disasters such as droughts, floods, GLOFs, and landslides affect men and women differently. This study is conducted to analyze the scenario of gender equality, and impacts of climate change on gender in Nepal. This study also identifies gender based adaptation approaches through the use of observed climate data, and projected and modeled demographic data such as Adolescent Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation Rate, and Maternal Mortality Ratio. The major tasks of this project include the calculation of Gender Inequality Index (GII), trend analysis and correlation between GII and temperature, that helps to evaluate the women vulnerability and identify the gender based adaptation interventions in Nepal. The required data on gender and temperature are obtained from World Bank and Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. GII is calculated for almost 26 years starting from the year 1990 by utilizing a tool "Calculating the Indices using Excel" provided through the UNDP. The Reproductive Health Index (RHI), Empowerment Index (EI), and Labor Market Index (LMI) that are required to determine GII are also calculated through the use of same tool. The trend analysis shows that GII follows a decreasing trend indicating higher gender equality. The correlation analysis shows the temperature positively correlated with RHI (r=0.64), EI Female (r=0.61), and EI Male (r=0.73). In case of LMI, temperature is positively correlated with female (r=0.14) and negatively correlated with male (r=-0.57). The analysis depicts negative correlation (r=-0.68) between climate change and GII. This research will provide some valuable insights in the research relating to gender and climate change that could help gender advocates and policymakers in developing further plans for women empowerment.

  16. Collaborative experiment on intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models for climate impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred

    2015-04-01

    The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) is a community-driven modelling effort bringing together impact modellers across sectors and scales to create more consistent and comprehensive projections of the impacts of climate change. This project is aimed in establishing a long-term, systematic, cross-sectoral impact model intercomparison process, including comparison of climate change impacts for multiple sectors using ensemble of climate scenarios and applying global and regional impact models. The project is coordinated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. An overview of this project and collaborative experiment related to the regional-scale water sector model intercomparison in ISI-MIP will be presented. The regional-scale water sector modelling includes eleven models applied to eleven large-scale river basins worldwide (not every model is applied to every of eleven basins). In total, 60-65 model applications will be done by several collaborating groups from different Institutions. The modelling tools include: ECOMAG, HBV, HBV-light, HYPE, LASCAM, LISFLOOD, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP. Eleven river basins chosen for the model application and intercomparison are: the Rhine and Tagus in Europe, the Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, the Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, the Upper Mississippi and Upper Amazon in America, and the Murray-Darling in Australia. Their drainage areas range between 67,490 km2 (Tagus) to 2,460,000 km2 (Lena). Data from global and regional datasets are used for the model setup and calibration. The model calibration and validation was done using the WATCH climate data for all cases, also checking the representation of high and low percentiles of river discharge. For most of the basins, also intermediate gauge stations were included in the calibration. The calibration and validation results, evaluated with the Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS), are mostly

  17. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2016-11-01

    Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity

  18. Many Species, Many Threats: A Composite Risk Assessment of Climate Impacts for Salmonids in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graham, M. C.; Greene, C.; Beechie, T. J.; Raymond, C.

    2016-02-01

    The life cycles of salmonid species span freshwater, estuarine, and marine environments, exposing these economically, ecologically, and culturally important species to a wide variety of climate change threats. The diverse life histories of salmonids make them differentially vulnerable to climate change based on their use of different habitat types and the variability in climate change threats across these habitat types. Previous studies have focused mainly on assessing the vulnerability of particular life stages for a few species. Hence, we lack a broad perspective on how multiple climate threats are expected to impact the entire salmonid community, which spend much of their lives in marine waters. This lack of knowledge hampers our ability to prioritize various adaptation strategies for salmonid conservation. In order to conduct a more extensive vulnerability study of salmonids, we performed a life cycle-based risk assessment of climate change threats for nine species of salmonids (species within Oncorhynchus, Salvelinus, and Prosopium genera) inhabiting the Skagit River watershed, which is subject to an array of climate impacts. Our risk assessment integrated projections of impacts from various climate threats in freshwater, estuarine, and marine ecosystems with expert-based assessments of species-specific sensitivity and exposure. We found that projections (multiple global climate models under moderate emission scenarios) of both changes in magnitude and frequency of three flow-related freshwater impacts (flooding, low flows, and suspended sediment pulses) were more severe than threats in estuarine and marine habitats for which we could obtain projections. Combining projections with expert-based sensitivity and exposure scores revealed that these three threats exhibited the highest risk across all species. Of the nine species, the four most vulnerable were Chinook and coho salmon, steelhead, and bull trout. Even though these salmonids spend much of their lives

  19. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moeller, Christopher C.; Gunshor, Mathew M.; Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan D.; Rouse, Lawrence J.; Frey, Herbert V. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The University of Wisconsin and Louisiana State University have teamed to study the forcing of winter season cold frontal wind systems on sediment distribution patterns and geomorphology in the Louisiana coastal zone. Wind systems associated with cold fronts have been shown to modify coastal circulation and resuspend sediments along the microtidal Louisiana coast. The assessment includes quantifying the influence of cumulative winter season atmospheric forcing (through surface wind observations) from year to year in response to short term climate variability, such as El Nino events. A correlation between winter cyclone frequency and the strength of El Nino events has been suggested. The atmospheric forcing data are being correlated to geomorphic measurements along western Louisiana's prograding muddy coast. Remote sensing data is being used to map and track sediment distribution patterns for various wind conditions. Transferring a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to EOS MODIS observations will enable estimates of SSC in case 2 waters over the global domain. Progress in Year 1 of this study has included data collection and analysis of wind observations for atmospheric forcing characterization, a field activity (TX-2001) to collect in situ water samples with co-incident remote sensing measurements from the NASA ER-2 based MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) and the EOS Terra based MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, aerial photography and of sediment burial pipe field measurements along the prograding muddy Chenier Plain coast of western Louisiana for documenting coastal change in that dynamic region, and routine collection of MODIS 250 in resolution data for monitoring coastal sediment patterns. The data sets are being used in a process to transfer an SSC estimation algorithm to the MODIS platform. Work is underway on assessing coastal transport for the winter 2000-01 season. Water level data for use in a Geomorphic Impact

  20. Assessing climate change impacts on wetlands in a flow regulated catchment: A case study in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia.

    PubMed

    Fu, Baihua; Pollino, Carmel A; Cuddy, Susan M; Andrews, Felix

    2015-07-01

    Globally wetlands are increasingly under threat due to changes in water regimes as a result of river regulation and climate change. We developed the Exploring CLimAte Impacts on Management (EXCLAIM) decision support system (DSS), which simulates flow-driven habitat condition for 16 vegetation species, 13 waterbird species and 4 fish groups in the Macquarie catchment, Australia. The EXCLAIM DSS estimates impacts to habitat condition, considering scenarios of climate change and water management. The model framework underlying the DSS is a probabilistic Bayesian network, and this approach was chosen to explicitly represent uncertainties in climate change scenarios and predicted ecological outcomes. The results suggest that the scenario with no climate change and no water resource development (i.e. flow condition without dams, weirs or water license entitlements, often regarded as a surrogate for 'natural' flow) consistently has the most beneficial outcomes for vegetation, waterbird and native fish. The 2030 dry climate change scenario delivers the poorest ecological outcomes overall, whereas the 2030 wet climate change scenario has beneficial outcomes for waterbird breeding, but delivers poor outcomes for river red gum and black box woodlands, and fish that prefer river channels as habitats. A formal evaluation of the waterbird breeding model showed that higher numbers of observed nest counts are typically associated with higher modelled average breeding habitat conditions. The EXCLAIM DSS provides a generic framework to link hydrology and ecological habitats for a large number of species, based on best available knowledge of their flood requirements. It is a starting point towards developing an integrated tool for assessing climate change impacts on wetland ecosystems.

  1. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-01-01

    level rise increases susceptibility of coastal military installations to inundation and flooding ...Administration NAVD88 North American Vertical Datum of 1988 NCA National Climate Assessment NFIP National Flood Insurance Program NGS National...extra- tropical storms, high tides, and high waves that can bring significant storm surge, flooding , heavy rain, and destructive winds. The

  2. Climate Change Impacts for Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 2. Models and Validation

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-03-01

    As CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change predictions from General Circulation Models (GCMs) as described in Part 1. Here we describe the agriculture model EPIC and the HUMUS water model and validate them with historical crop yields and streamflow data. We compare EPIC simulated grain and forage crop yields with historical crop yields from the US Department of Agriculture and find an acceptable level of agreement for this study. The validation of HUMUS simulated streamflow with estimates of natural streamflow from the US Geological Survey shows that the model is able to reproduce significant relationships and capture major trends.

  3. Hydrological and nitrogen distributed catchment modeling to assess the impact of future climate change at Trichonis Lake, western Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dimitriou, Elias; Moussoulis, Elias

    2010-03-01

    According to regional climatic models, climate change may affect Mediterranean lakes significantly in terms of water availability and quality. Trichonis Lake catchment covers a semi-mountainous area of 403 km2 including the largest Greek lake by volume (2.6 × 109 m3), located in western Greece. The impact of climate change on the hydrology and water quality of the lake, in terms of lake water level and nutrient concentrations, has been assessed. Water balance estimates and geographical information system tools were then used to set up a physically based, spatially distributed model. The calibrated model was simulated for two future scenarios specified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: A2 (pessimistic) and B2 (more optimistic), which involved temperature/evaporation/evapotranspiration increase and small precipitation decrease. The model was calibrated efficiently for the 1990-1992 period. The two basic climatic scenarios illustrated that the responses of the lake water levels will show a decrease of 24.2 and 12 cm, respectively, and an increase of total nitrogen concentrations by 3.4 and 10%, in relation to the early 1990s values. These important findings suggest that mitigation and optimum management plans should be developed to eliminate the aforementioned climate change impacts and further research should follow.

  4. Verifying a temporal disaggregation method for generating daily precipitation of potentially non-stationary climate change for site-specific impact assessment

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Statistical approaches have been widely used to downscale global climate model (GCM) projections to finer spatiotemporal resolution for impact assessment of climate change. However, a major concern of the approaches is whether a statistical relationship derived from historical climate will hold for...

  5. Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment.

    PubMed

    Chapra, Steven C; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M L; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M; Paerl, Hans W

    2017-08-15

    Cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) have serious adverse effects on human and environmental health. Herein, we developed a modeling framework that predicts the effect of climate change on cyanobacteria concentrations in large reservoirs in the contiguous U.S. The framework, which uses climate change projections from five global circulation models, two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and two cyanobacterial growth scenarios, is unique in coupling climate projections with a hydrologic/water quality network model of the contiguous United States. Thus, it generates both regional and nationwide projections useful as a screening-level assessment of climate impacts on CyanoHAB prevalence as well as potential lost recreation days and associated economic value. Our projections indicate that CyanoHAB concentrations are likely to increase primarily due to water temperature increases tempered by increased nutrient levels resulting from changing demographics and climatic impacts on hydrology that drive nutrient transport. The combination of these factors results in the mean number of days of CyanoHAB occurrence ranging from about 7 days per year per waterbody under current conditions, to 16-23 days in 2050 and 18-39 days in 2090. From a regional perspective, we find the largest increases in CyanoHAB occurrence in the Northeast U.S., while the greatest impacts to recreation, in terms of costs, are in the Southeast.

  6. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 5. Irrigated Agriculture and National Grain Crop Production

    SciTech Connect

    Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Brown, Robert A.

    2005-04-01

    Over the next century global warming will lead to changes in weather patterns, affecting many aspects of our environment. In the United States, the one sector of the economy most likely to be directly impacted by the changes in climate is agriculture. We have examined potential changes in dryland agriculture (Part 2) and in water resources necessary for crop production (Part 3). Here we assess to what extent, under a set of climate change scenarios, water supplies will be sufficient to meet the irrigation requirement of major grain crops in the U.S. In addition, we assess the overall impacts of changes in water supply on national grain production. We applied 12 climate change scenarios based on the predictions of General Circulation Models to a water resources model and a crop growth simulator for the conterminous United States. We calculate national production in current crop growing regions by applying irrigation where it is necessary and water is available. Irrigation declines under all climate change scenarios employed in this study. In certain regions and scenarios, precipitation declines so much that water supplies are too limited; in other regions it plentiful enough that little value is derived from irrigation. Total crop production is greater when irrigation is applied, but corn and soybean production declines under most scenarios. Winter wheat production responds significantly to elevated atmospheric CO2 and appears likely to increase under climate change.

  7. Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soundharajan, Bankaru-Swamy; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

    2016-07-01

    This study employed a Monte-Carlo simulation approach to characterise the uncertainties in climate change induced variations in storage requirements and performance (reliability (time- and volume-based), resilience, vulnerability and sustainability) of surface water reservoirs. Using a calibrated rainfall-runoff (R-R) model, the baseline runoff scenario was first simulated. The R-R inputs (rainfall and temperature) were then perturbed using plausible delta-changes to produce simulated climate change runoff scenarios. Stochastic models of the runoff were developed and used to generate ensembles of both the current and climate-change-perturbed future runoff scenarios. The resulting runoff ensembles were used to force simulation models of the behaviour of the reservoir to produce 'populations' of required reservoir storage capacity to meet demands, and the performance. Comparing these parameters between the current and the perturbed provided the population of climate change effects which was then analysed to determine the variability in the impacts. The methodology was applied to the Pong reservoir on the Beas River in northern India. The reservoir serves irrigation and hydropower needs and the hydrology of the catchment is highly influenced by Himalayan seasonal snow and glaciers, and Monsoon rainfall, both of which are predicted to change due to climate change. The results show that required reservoir capacity is highly variable with a coefficient of variation (CV) as high as 0.3 as the future climate becomes drier. Of the performance indices, the vulnerability recorded the highest variability (CV up to 0.5) while the volume-based reliability was the least variable. Such variabilities or uncertainties will, no doubt, complicate the development of climate change adaptation measures; however, knowledge of their sheer magnitudes as obtained in this study will help in the formulation of appropriate policy and technical interventions for sustaining and possibly enhancing

  8. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  9. Assessment of the climate change impacts on fecal coliform contamination in a tidal estuarine system.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wen-Cheng; Chan, Wen-Ting

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future microbiological water quality in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled 3D hydrodynamic and fecal coliform transport model was developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system for predicting the influences of climate change on microbiological water quality. The hydrodynamic and fecal coliform model was validated using observational salinity and fecal coliform distributions. According to the analyses of the statistical error, predictions of the salinity and the fecal coliform concentration from the model simulation quantitatively agreed with the observed data. The validated model was then applied to predict the fecal coliform contamination as a result of climate change, including the change of freshwater discharge and the sea level rise. We found that the reduction of freshwater discharge under climate change scenarios resulted in an increase in the fecal coliform concentration. The sea level rise would decrease fecal coliform distributions because both the water level and the water volume increased. A reduction in freshwater discharge has a negative impact on the fecal coliform concentration, whereas a rising sea level has a positive influence on the fecal coliform contamination. An appropriate strategy for the effective microbiological management in tidal estuaries is required to reveal the persistent trends of climate in the future.

  10. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate

  11. Climate change assessments

    Treesearch

    Linda A. Joyce

    2008-01-01

    The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

  12. Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

    2016-06-01

    Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially

  13. Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

    2014-05-01

    Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A

  14. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of CORDEX climate simulations (Dano, Burkina Faso)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

    2016-04-01

    This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on water resources in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso, West Africa). There is now essential consensus on the importance of performing multi (climate)-model assessments in order to estimate the response of the West African climate to global change. Taking advantage of the results of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project, this study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in a catchment that is potentially vulnerable to climate change and presents a low adaptive capacity. The ensemble of RCMs was first evaluated to get an estimate of the historical simulated rainfall for the catchment by comparing RCM-based simulated historical rainfall to the observed rainfall data provided by the National Meteorological Service (DGM). In general, the simulated historical rainfall agrees within some degree of variability with the observed rainfall in regard to the mean annual cycle of precipitation. However, significant biases such as a double-peaked rainy season as well as the timing of the rainy season were exhibited by individual RCMs. A statistical bias correction (Quantile mapping) was then applied to the RCM-based simulated daily rainfall for the overlapping period of 1971-2000. The results confirm the effectiveness of the applied bias correction method for rainfall. Temperature and bias corrected rainfall data from the ensemble of RCMs was used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate river discharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and groundwater depth. To take into account the concern of the potential alteration of the climate change signal due to bias correction, uncorrected climate data for a single RCM was also applied to the hydrological model. The simulated hydrological variables show a similar behavior under observed and bias corrected climate data for the

  15. Assessing the site-specific impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion and crop yields in the Loess Plateau of China

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate changes can have great impacts on fragile agro-ecosystems in the Loess Plateau of China, which is one of the most severely eroded regions in the world. The objective of this study is to assess the site-specific impacts of projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2039 on hydrology, soil l...

  16. Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brault, M.-O.; Mysak, L. A.; Matthews, H. D.; Simmons, C. T.

    2013-08-01

    The end of the Pleistocene was a turning point for the Earth system as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. The deglacial climate change coincided with an unprecedented decline in many species of Pleistocene megafauna, including the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that presumably involved large-scale tree grazing, the mammoth extinction has been associated with the rapid expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, thus potentially contributing to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of these extinctions on climate during the latest deglacial period. We have explored various hypothetical scenarios of forest expansion in the northern high latitudes, quantifying the biogeophysical effects in terms of changes in surface albedo and air temperature. These scenarios include a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS) which simulates the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model, and sensitivity tests which investigate the timing of extinction, the fraction of trees grazed by mammoths, and the southern extent of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free atmospheric CO2-carbon cycle interactions. For the MIS, we obtained a surface albedo increase and global warming of 0.006 and 0.175 °C, respectively. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3 °C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the free CO2 simulation, the biogeophysical-induced warming was amplified by a biogeochemical effect, whereby the replacement of high-latitude tundra with shrub forest led to a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere and a small atmospheric CO2 increase. Overall, our results suggest the potential for a small, though non-trivial, effect of

  17. Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-03-10

    Clouds and Precipitation along the Sierra Madre Occidental Observed During NAME-2004: Implications for Warm Season Precipitation Estimation in Complex...FINAL REPORT Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season SERDP Project RC...the Southwest United States during the warm season 5b. GRANT NUMBER RC-2205 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER RC-2205

  18. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Large-Scale Soil Moisture, its Temporal Variability and Associated Drought-Flood Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Destouni, G.; Verrot, L.

    2015-12-01

    Soil moisture is a dynamic variable of great importance for water cycling and climate, as well as for ecosystems and societal sectors such as agriculture. Model representation of soil moisture and its temporal variability is, for instance, central for assessing the impacts of hydro-climatic change on drought and flood risks. However, our ability to assess such impacts and guide appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures is challenged by the need to link data and modeling across a range of spatiotemporal scales of relevance for the variability and change of soil moisture in long-term time series. This paper synthesizes recent advances for meeting this challenge by a relatively simple, analytical, data-driven approach to modeling the variability and change of large-scale soil moisture under long-term hydro-climatic change. Model application to two major Swedish drainage basins, and model-data comparison for ten study catchments across the United States shows the model ability to reproduce variability dynamics in long-term data series of the key soil-moisture variables: unsaturated water content and groundwater table position. The Swedish application shows that human-driven hydro-climatic shifts may imply increased risk for hydrological drought (runoff-related) and agricultural drought (soil moisture-related), even though meteorological drought risk (precipitation-related) is unchanged or lowered. The direct model-data comparison for ten U.S. catchments further shows good model representation of seasonal and longer-term fluctuation timings and frequencies for water content and groundwater level, along with physically reasonable model tendency to underestimate the local fluctuation magnitudes. Overall, the tested modeling approach can fulfill its main aim of screening long-term time series of large-scale hydro-climatic data (historic or projected for the future by climate modeling) for relatively simple, unexaggerated assessment of variability and change in key

  19. Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brault, Marc-Olivier; Mysak, Lawrence; Damon Matthews, H.; Simmons, Christopher

    2013-04-01

    The end of the Pleistocene marked a turning point for the Earth system as the climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. It is widely known that the deglacial climate change was accompanied by an unprecedented decline in many species of large terrestrial mammals, featuring among others the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that involved the grazing of a large number of trees, their extinction is thought to have contributed to the rapid and well-documented expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, which in turn could have affected the surface albedo of Northern Continents, and contributed to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate change. We have introduced various hypothetical scenarios of megafaunal extinctions ranging from catastrophic to more realistic cases, in order to quantify their potential impact on climate via the associated biogeophysical effects of expanding vegetation on regional and global temperature. In particular, we focus our attention on a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS), which represents the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model. The more realistic experiments include sensitivity tests based on the timing of extinction, the amount of tree clearance associated with mammoth diets, and the size of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free (non-prescribed) atmospheric CO2. For the most extreme extinction scenario, we obtained a surface albedo increase of 0.006, which resulted in a global warming of 0.175°C. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3°C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the simulation with freely evolving atmospheric CO2

  20. Dealing with multi-GCM ensemble in developing the climate change scenarios the probabilistic impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.

    2010-09-01

    The volume of GCM simulations available for climate change impact studies continually increases. On the one hand, this allows for a better representation of uncertainties (between GCMs, between emission scenarios, between parameterizations, etc.). On the other hand, the volume of available GCM output data has become so large such that it poses a strong requirement for more effective organization of climate change impact analyses: it is not always possible to involve scenarios from all available GCMs. To account for the uncertainties in this case, two approaches are at hand: (i) Applying scenarios from a subset of all available GCMs. (ii) Applying scenario emulator/generator, which may produce a large set of climate change scenarios representing the multivariate probability density function of the scenarios. The present contribution addresses both of these two approaches: (A) Choice of the "representative" subset of GCMs. In defining the subset, two circumstances are taken into account: (i) performance of GCMs to reproduce the present climate, (ii) ability of the subset to represent the variability of scenarios across the whole set of GCMs. The gridded maps will show the chosen subsets for the whole Europe. (B) Use of the stochastic climate change scenario generator. The generator used here is based on a multivariate parametric model whose parameters are derived from a set of GCM based scenarios (no limit on the size of the calibration set, the model may also be calibrated with a very large perturbed-physics ensemble). Once calibrated, the generator may produce an arbitrarily large set of climate change scenarios. The results of the validation of the scenario generator will be presented. The validation consists in comparing distribution functions of changes in temperature, precipitation and drought conditions (in terms of Palmer drought indices) in several sites in Europe and U.S.A. based on (i) a set of individual GCM simulations (taken from IPCC AR4 database) vs

  1. A Hydrologic Model Calibration Exercise for Regional Climate Change Impact Assessment of the Conterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S.; Ashfaq, M.

    2012-12-01

    Numerous studies have investigated the hydrological impacts of climate change in the U.S. using projections from multiple general circulation models downscaled by means of regional climate models, statistical methods, and hydrologic models. Most of these studies focused on a small number of local watersheds without consideration to larger-scale regional climate change impacts, or utilized macro-scale hydrologic models with coarser spatial resolution that are insufficient to characterize the delicate surface hydrology. To improve the results of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, there is a need for better spatial coverage as well as resolution of hydrologic models. The main challenge has been the availability of a comprehensive set of higher resolution calibrated physical parameters. Focusing on the need of regional hydro-climate impact assessment, a data-intensive hydrologic model calibration exercise is performed for over 2000 USGS hydrologic Subbasins (HUC8) in the conterminous U.S. at the resolution of 1/24th degree (~4km). Both USGS WaterWatch monthly runoff and NWIS daily gage observation are used to calibrate the baseline variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. Several statistical matrices are used to evaluate the model performance at each HUC8, including the Pearson correlation coefficient (R), root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSEC), bias (B) and the percent bias (PB). The overall results show that the physical models simulate closely the observed values with about sixty four percent of the HUC8s having an average NSEC of 0.95 The model performance was vastly better in wet region basins than they were in arid region. The current baseline VIC model can hardly be improved in arid and desert regions (covering about twenty percent of the HUC8s) where the NSEC values are below zero. Overall, the new 4-km model implementation for the conterminous U.S. shows promising improvement over the ones

  2. Errors and uncertainties introduced by a regional climate model in climate impact assessments: example of crop yield simulations in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, Johanna; Pohl, Benjamin; Sultan, Benjamin

    2015-12-01

    The challenge of estimating the potential impacts of climate change has led to an increasing use of dynamical downscaling to produce fine spatial-scale climate projections for impact assessments. In this work, we analyze if and to what extent the bias in the simulated crop yield can be reduced by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to downscale ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis) rainfall and radiation data. Then, we evaluate the uncertainties resulting from both the choice of the physical parameterizations of the WRF model and its internal variability. Impact assessments were performed at two sites in Sub-Saharan Africa and by using two crop models to simulate Niger pearl millet and Benin maize yields. We find that the use of the WRF model to downscale ERA-Interim climate data generally reduces the bias in the simulated crop yield, yet this reduction in bias strongly depends on the choices in the model setup. Among the physical parameterizations considered, we show that the choice of the land surface model (LSM) is of primary importance. When there is no coupling with a LSM, or when the LSM is too simplistic, the simulated precipitation and then the simulated yield are null, or respectively very low; therefore, coupling with a LSM is necessary. The convective scheme is the second most influential scheme for yield simulation, followed by the shortwave radiation scheme. The uncertainties related to the internal variability of the WRF model are also significant and reach up to 30% of the simulated yields. These results suggest that regional models need to be used more carefully in order to improve the reliability of impact assessments.

  3. Assessing climate change impact on complementarity between solar and hydro power in areas affected by glacier shrinkage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diah Puspitarini, Handriyanti; François, Baptiste; Zoccatelli, Davide; Brown, Casey; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Zaramella, Mattia; Borga, Marco

    2017-04-01

    basis. Climate response functions, developed in a 2D climate change space (change in mean temperature and precipitation), are built from multiple hydro-climatic scenarios obtained by perturbing the observed weather time series with the change factor method, and considering given glacier storage states. Climate experiments are further used for assessing these change factors from different emission scenarios, climate models and future prediction lead times. Their positioning on the Climate Response Function allows discussing the risk/opportunities pertaining to changes in VRE penetration in the future. Results show i) the large impact of glacier shrinkage on the complementarity between solar and RoR energy sources and ii) that the impact is decreasing with time, with the main alterations to be expected in the coming 30 years. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., (2012). Decision scaling: Linking bottom up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48. 515 doi:10.1029/2011WR011212

  4. Assessing the impact of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Future climate changes will place big challenges to the US agricultural system, among which increasing heat stress and precipitation variability were the two major concerns. Reliable prediction of crop productions in response to the increasingly frequent and severe extreme climate is a prerequisite for developing adaptive strategies on agricultural risk management. However, the progress has been slow on quantifying the uncertainty of computational predictions at high spatial resolutions. Here we assessed the risks of future climate extremes on the US corn and soybean production using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM) model under different climate scenarios. To quantify the uncertainty due to conceptual representations of heat, drought and flooding stress in crop models, we proposed a new strategy of algorithm ensemble in which different methods for simulating crop responses to those extreme climatic events were incorporated into the APSIM. This strategy allowed us to isolate irrelevant structure differences among existing crop models but only focus on the process of interest. Future climate inputs were derived from high-spatial-resolution (12km × 12km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP 4.5) and 8.5 (RCP 8.5). Based on crop model simulations, we analyzed the magnitude and frequency of heat, drought and flooding stress for the 21st century. We also evaluated the water use efficiency and water deficit on regional scales if farmers were to boost their yield by applying more fertilizers. Finally we proposed spatially explicit adaptation strategies of irrigation and fertilizing for different management zones.

  5. Long-term forest monitoring in Switzerland: Assessing climate change impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kraeuchi, N.

    1996-09-01

    This paper discusses successional characteristics of forest ecosystems as influenced by a changing environment, and it focuses on the potential risks resulting from this change. In the early 90`s, a long-term forest monitoring program was established in Switzerland. The primary aim of this program is to identify and evaluate changes in the composition, structure and function of selected forest ecosystems. To assess the potential risks arising with changing weather patterns, a total of 15 monitoring plots were chosen according to specific selection criteria, namely site homogeneity and site sensitivity to climate change and air pollution. Transition characteristics from one mature forest community type to another is strongly modified by different environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation. During climate change, the transition depends on the rate and extent of the forcing factors, the speed of migration and the stability of the communities as they become increasingly maladapted to local climates. It is unknown whether all systems will stabilize in a new equilibrium, and, some forest species may be unable to keep pace with shifts in climatic zones. To assess these risks, FORSUM, a forest succession model for Central Europe, is applied to explain the forest succession on the Long-term Forest Ecosystem Research plots based on the new IPCC 95 climate scenarios. Continuous model improvement based on an increasing number of site specific data-series for model parameterization will help to identify high and low risk forest areas in Switzerland and to evaluate the long-term sustainability of Swiss forests, currently at risk from a number of anthropogenic and biogenic stresses.

  6. Advancing scientific base lines for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in mountain regions in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, C.; Jurt, N. Salzmann, C.; Calanca, P.; Ordonez, A. Diaz, J.; Zappa, T. Jonas M.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Obersteiner, M.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.

    2009-04-01

    Adaptation to climate change impacts is a major challenge for the human society. For countries in development, consistent base lines of expected impacts at the regional scale are required to plan and implement low-cost adaptation measures that effectively address societal needs. However, donors and implementing agencies are often confronted with a lack of scientific data. This poses a serious problem to global adaptation funds, such as the one established under the UNFCCC, which are predominantly directed towards developing countries. This contribution summarizes recent experiences gained from international projects in the Andes, by the Peruvian and Swiss Governments, and the World Bank, on the development of scientific base lines for selected regions in the Peruvian Andes. The focus is on the nexus between water resources, food security and natural disasters. The analysis shows that Peruvian Andes are among the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Negative impacts on water resources are expected from the rapid retreat of glaciers, extended and more frequent drought periods and increasing human needs. Climate change impacts are exacerbated by continued sub-optimal resource management. As a consequence of growing stresses, water availability for human consumption, agriculture and energy generation is increasingly limited. Assessment of the current conditions and reliable projections for the future are hampered by scarce data availability and methodological problems, such as downscaling of global and regional climate scenarios, cross-sector effects, and others. It is critical that related uncertainties, and the propagation thereof, are assessed throughout the impact analysis for an improved management of adaptation measures. Challenges furthermore include communication and understanding among different actors, including the scientific community, political and implementation agencies, and local population. Based on our experiences we will outline a good practice

  7. Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brault, M.; Mysak, L. A.; Matthews, D.; Simmons, C. T.

    2012-12-01

    The end of the Pleistocene marked a turning point for the Earth system, as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. It is widely known that the deglacial climate change then was accompanied by an unprecedented decline in many species of large terrestrial mammals, featuring among others the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to a herbivorous diet that involved the grazing of a large number of trees, their extinction is thought to have contributed to the rapid and well-documented expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, which in turn would have resulted in a significant reduction in surface albedo, leading to an increase in global temperature. In this study, we use the UVic Earth System Climate Model (an EMIC) to simulate various scenarios of the megafaunal extinctions, ranging from the catastrophic to more realistic cases, in order to quantify their potential impact on the climate system, and investigate the associated biogeophysical feedbacks between the growing vegetation and rising temperatures. The more realistic experiments include sensitivity tests based on the timing of extinction, tree clearance ration, and size of habitat, as well as a gradual extinction and a simulation involving free (non-prescribed) atmospheric CO2. Overall, most of the paleoclimate simulations and the sensitivity tests yield results that correspond well with our intuition. For the maximum impact scenario, we obtain a surface albedo increase of 0.006, which translates into a global warming of 0.175°C; these numbers are comparable in magnitude to those in similar studies.

  8. Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios for Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation. 5; Chapter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valdivia, Roberto O.; Antle, John M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Ruane, Alexander C.; Vervoort, Joost; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Hathie, Ibrahima; Tui, Sabine Homann-Kee; Mulwa, Richard; Nhemachena, Charles; hide

    2015-01-01

    The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment where precise prediction is not possible, and also that these scenarios need to be logically consistent across local, regional, and global scales. For global climate models, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been developed that provide a range of time-series of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations into the future. For impact and vulnerability assessment, new socio-economic pathway and scenario concepts have also been developed, with leadership from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).This chapter presents concepts and methods for development of regional representative agricultural pathways (RAOs) and scenarios that can be used for agricultural model intercomparison, improvement, and impact assessment in a manner consistent with the new global pathways and scenarios. The development of agriculture-specific pathways and scenarios is motivated by the need for a protocol-based approach to climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessment. Until now, the various global and regional models used for agricultural-impact assessment have been implemented with individualized scenarios using various data and model structures, often without transparent documentation, public availability, and consistency across disciplines. These practices have reduced the credibility of assessments, and also hampered the advancement of the science through model intercomparison, improvement, and synthesis of model results across studies. The recognition of the need for better coordination among the agricultural modeling community, including the development of standard reference scenarios with adequate agriculture-specific detail led to the creation of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) in 2010. The development of RAPs is one of the cross-cutting themes in AgMIP's work

  9. Assessment Of The Impact Of ESA CCI Land Cover Information For Global Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khlystova, Iryna G.; Loew, A.; Hangemann, S.; Defourny, P.; Brockmann, C.; Bontemps, S.

    2013-12-01

    Addressing the issues of climate change, the European Space Agency has recently initiated the Global Monitoring of an Essential Climate Variables program (ESA Climate Change Initiative). The main objective is to realize the full potential of the long-term global Earth Observation archives that ESA has established over the last thirty years. Due to well organized data access and transparency for the data quality, as well as long-term scientific and technical support, the provided datasets have become very attractive for the use in Earth System Modeling. The Max Plank Institute for Meteorology is contributing to the ESA CCI via the Climate Modeler User Group (CMUG) activities and is responsible for providing a modeler perspective on the Land Cover and Fire Essential Climate Variables. The new ESA land cover ECV has recently released a new global 300-m land cover dataset. This dataset is supported by an interactive tool which allows flexible horizontal re-scaling and conversion from currently accepted satellite specific land classes to the model- specific Plant Functional Types (PFT) categorization. Such a dataset is an ideal starting point for the generation of the land cover information for the initialization of model cover fractions. In this presentation, we show how the usage of this new dataset affects the model performance, comparing it to the standard model set-up, in terms of energy and water fluxes. To do so, we performed a number of offline land-system simulations with original standard JSBACH land cover information and with the new ESA CCI land cover product. We have analyzed the impact of land cover on a simulated surface albedo, temperature and energy fluxes as well as on the biomass load and fire carbon emissions.

  10. Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for

  11. Coastal impacts, adaptation, and vulnerabilities: a technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Virginia; Davidson, Margaret; Burkett, Virginia; Davidson, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The coast has long provided communities with a multitude of benefits including an abundance of natural resources that sustain economies, societies, and ecosystems. Coasts provide natural harbors for commerce, trade, and transportation; beaches and shorelines that attract residents and tourists; and wetlands and estuaries that are critical for fisheries and water resources. Coastal ecosystems provide critical functions to cycle and move nutrients, store carbon, detoxify wastes, and purify air and water. These areas also mitigate floods and buffer against coastal storms that bring high winds and salt water inland and erode the shore. Coastal regions are critical in the development, transportation, and processing of oil and natural gas resources and, more recently, are being explored as a source of energy captured from wind and waves. The many benefits and opportunities provided in coastal areas have strengthened our economic reliance on coastal resources. Consequently, the high demands placed on the coastal environment will increase commensurately with human activity. Because 35 U.S. states, commonwealths, and territories have coastlines that border the oceans or Great Lakes, impacts to coastline systems will reverberate through social, economic, and natural systems across the U.S. Impacts on coastal systems are among the most costly and most certain consequences of a warming climate (Nicholls et al., 2007). The warming atmosphere is expected to accelerate sea-level rise as a result of the decline of glaciers and ice sheets and the thermal expansion of sea water. As mean sea level rises, coastal shorelines will retreat and low-lying areas will tend to be inundated more frequently, if not permanently, by the advancing sea. As atmospheric temperature increases and rainfall patterns change, soil moisture and runoff to the coast are likely to be altered. An increase in the intensity of climatic extremes such as storms and heat spells, coupled with other impacts of

  12. Integrated impact assessment of climate change, land use, and adaptation policies on water quality in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trautvetter, Helen; Schoenhart, Martin; Parajaka, Juraj; Schmid, Erwin; Zessner, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Climate change is one of the major challenges of our time and adds considerable stress to the human society and environment. A change in climate will not only shift general weather patterns, but might also increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. These changes in climatic conditions will affect the quality and quantity of water resources both directly as well as indirectly through autonomous adaptation by farmers (e.g. cultivar choices, fertilization intensity or soil management). This will influence the compliance with the good ecological and chemical status according to the EU Water Framework Directive. We present results from an integrated impact modelling framework (IIMF) to tackle those direct and indirect impacts and analyze policy options for planned adaptation in agricultural land use and sustainable management of land and water resources until 2040. The IIMF is the result of an interdisciplinary collaboration among economists, agronomists, and hydrologists. It consists of the bio-physical process model EPIC, the regional land use optimization model PASMA[grid], the quantitative precipitation/runoff TUWmodel and the surface water emission model MONERIS. Scenarios have been developed and parameterized in collaboration with stakeholders in order to facilitate multi-actor knowledge transfer. The set of climate change scenarios until 2040 includes three scenarios with equal temperature changes but varying precipitation patterns. They are combined with potential socio-economic and policy development. The latter include water protection measures on fertilization management, soil management, or crop rotation choices. We will presented the development of interfaces among the research, the definition of scenarios and major scenario results for Austria. We will focus on nutrient emissions to surface waters, which are the major link between the different models. The results, available at watershed level indicate the

  13. Climate impact assessment on water resources and glacierization in the Naryn, Karadarya and Zerafshan basins, Central Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gafurov, Abror; Duethmann, Doris; Kriegel, David; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Huss, Matthias; Farinotti, Daniel; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2017-04-01

    Central Asian river basins with their runoff formation zones in high mountains are currently experiencing the impact of increasing temperatures and changes in precipitation. The headwaters thus exhibit negative glacier mass balances, decreasing glacierization, changes in snow cover characteristics and changing runoff response. These changes are likely to intensify in future, as temperatures are projected to grow further. Both hydropower industry and irrigated agriculture in the downstream areas strongly depend on the water availability, its seasonal and long-term distribution. In order to improve water management policy in the region, reliable assessments of water availability in the runoff formation zones of Central Asia are necessary. One of the approaches to assessment of water resources is the evaluation of climate scenarios using hydrological models. We present an assessment of climate impact on water resources and glacierization in the 21st century using the semi-distributed hydrological model WASA in the Naryn, Karadarya and Zerafshan basins in Central Asia. In order to constrain hydrological model parameters reliably, a multi-objective calibration approach using observed discharge, glacier mass balance and satellite snow cover data was applied. Consideration of initial glacier volume and its temporal dynamics can be essential for climate impact assessment in transient model simulations. Here, we used estimates of initial glacier thickness, calculated glacier mass balance, and the ∆h-approach to simulate the glacier evolution on an annual basis. Future climate scenarios based on the CMIP5 ensemble projections reflecting cold-wet, cold-dry, warm-wet, and warm-dry conditions were used and bias corrected with an empirical quantile mapping technique. The results indicate that the impact of changing climate varies regionally. Based on the ensemble mean of the simulated glacier area evolution, the glacier area retreat is fastest in the low-lying Karadarya basin

  14. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Extremes in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.; Salathe, E.; Lutz, E.

    2010-12-01

    We report on three case studies at the University of Washington assessing the changing nature of hydrologic extremes in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in response to projected climate change. The first is associated with the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project (CBCCSP) which provides estimates of the hundred-year flood (Q100) and the ten-year 7-day low flow (7Q10) for 297 streamflow locations in the PNW. A key finding of the study is that changing flood risks in response to climate change in the PNW are a complex function of both temperature sensitivities related to snow processes (which vary with historical mid-winter temperature regimes) and the spatial distribution of precipitation change. Previous analyses using a less sophisticated statistical downscaling approach, for example, showed declining flood risk in many of the coldest locations in the PNW. Because of increases in precipitation in the northern most portions of the domain, the current results show increasing flood risks in these same areas. Changes in low flow risks, by comparison, are broadly similar for most sites. The ensemble analysis at each streamflow site facilitates assessment of uncertainty. A second case study assesses changing flood risks at relatively small spatial scales with the intent to improve estimates of Q100 that are currently used in professional practice to design infrastructure such as culverts for forest roads. Current methods used in practice would suggest no change in flood risk in response to projected climate change in the PNW. Use of a physically based hydrologic model yields a complex spatial pattern of changing flood risk with topography that also varies with basin size. A third study (currently in progress) uses an ensemble of downscaled scenarios from a regional-scale climate model at 12km resolution to estimate changing flood risks for the same 297 streamflow locations examined in the CBCCSP study. A primary goal of this study is to assess the potential

  15. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

    PubMed

    Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

    2015-11-01

    Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

  17. Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bounoua, L.; Zhang, P.; Imhoff, M.; Santanello, J.; Kumar, S.; Shepherd, M.; Quattrochi, D.; Silva, J.; Rosenzweigh, C.; Gaffin, S.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

  18. Assessing the impact of late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions on global vegetation and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brault, M.-O.; Mysak, L. A.; Matthews, H. D.; Simmons, C. T.

    2013-01-01

    The end of the Pleistocene marked a turning point for the Earth system as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. It is widely acknowledged that the deglacial climate change coincided with an unprecedented decline in many species of large terrestrial mammals, including the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that presumably involved large-scale tree grazing, the mammoth expansion would have accelerated the expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, thus contributing to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate change. We have explored various hypothetical scenarios of forest expansion in the Northern Continents, quantifying the regional and global biogeophysical effects in terms of changes in surface albedo and air temperature. In particular, we focus our attention on a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS) which simulates the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model. More realistic experiments include sensitivity tests based on the timing of extinction, the fraction of trees grazed by mammoths, and the size of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free (non-prescribed) atmospheric CO2. For the MIS, we obtained a surface albedo increase of 0.006, which resulted in a global warming of 0.175 °C. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3 °C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the free CO2 simulation, the biogeophysical-induced warming was amplified by a biogeochemical effect whereby the replacement of high-latitude tundra with shrub forest led to a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere and a small atmospheric CO2 increase. Overall, our results suggest the potential

  19. Assessing the impact of climate variability and change on crop production in the Midwestern USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, R.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2013-12-01

    Interannual variability of crop yield in the Midwestern USA is closely related to extremes in spring and summer moisture conditions. For example, extensive summer drought in 2012 caused a 28% reduction in corn yield relative to early season predictions. In contrast, saturated soil conditions in spring 2013 have led to delayed planting and poor stand development. Therefore, when applying physically-based models to predict crop yield, soil moisture dynamics and physiological stresses must be correctly represented, especially under future climate scenarios where spring and summer moisture are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, over much of the Midwest. The overall objective of this research is to explore and improve the ability of an existing ecohydrology model (SWAT 2009) to simulate corn yield with respect to current and future climate and soil moisture variability. The model is first evaluated for four field scale sites in Iowa, Illinois and Ohio. Soil moisture is calibrated based on 5-6 years of layer specific data to ensure a realistic soil water representation either in dry or wet conditions. Then the calibrated model is used to evaluate the effects of climate variability on crop yield between 1991 and 2010. Finally, the model is run with down-scaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 data from three GCMs (CCSM4, GFDL-esm2m, MIROC5) and four emissions scenarios (RC2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Soil moisture, physiological stresses and crop yield predictions for two future periods (2031-2050, 2071-2090) are compared with the baseline period (1991-2010) to quantify climate change impacts on crop yield due to excess/deficit moisture.

  20. Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

    2017-01-01

    We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  1. Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

    2017-01-01

    We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

  2. Assessment of impacts of agricultural and climate change scenarios on watershed water quantity and quality, and crop production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teshager, Awoke D.; Gassman, Philip W.; Schoof, Justin T.; Secchi, Silvia

    2016-08-01

    Modeling impacts of agricultural scenarios and climate change on surface water quantity and quality provides useful information for planning effective water, environmental and land use policies. Despite the significant impacts of agriculture on water quantity and quality, limited literature exists that describes the combined impacts of agricultural land use change and climate change on future bioenergy crop yields and watershed hydrology. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model was used to model the combined impacts of five agricultural land use change scenarios and three downscaled climate pathways (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) that were created from an ensemble of eight atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). These scenarios were implemented in a well-calibrated SWAT model for the intensively farmed and tiled Raccoon River watershed (RRW) located in western Iowa. The scenarios were executed for the historical baseline, early century, mid-century and late century periods. The results indicate that historical and more corn intensive agricultural scenarios with higher CO2 emissions consistently result in more water in the streams and greater water quality problems, especially late in the 21st century. Planting more switchgrass, on the other hand, results in less water in the streams and water quality improvements relative to the baseline. For all given agricultural landscapes simulated, all flow, sediment and nutrient outputs increase from early-to-late century periods for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. We also find that corn and switchgrass yields are negatively impacted under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century.

  3. Assessing Climate Change in Early Warm Season and Impacts on Wildfire Potential in the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafatos, M.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J.; Nghiem, S. V.; Fujioka, F.; Myoung, B.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires are an important concern in the Southwestern United States (SWUS) where the prevalent semi-arid to arid climate, vegetation types and hot and dry warm seasons challenge strategic fire management. Although they are part of the natural cycle related to the region's climate, significant growth of urban areas and expansion of the wildland-urban interface, have made wildfires a serious high-risk hazard. Previous studies also showed that the SWUS region is prone to frequent droughts due to large variations in wet season rainfall and has suffered from a number of severe wildfires in the recent decades. Despite the increasing trend in large wildfires, future wildfire risk assessment studies at regional scales for proactive adaptations are lacking. Our previous study revealed strong correlations between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and temperatures during March-June in SWUS. The abnormally warm and dry conditions in an NAO-positive spring, combined with reduced winter precipitation, can cause an early start of a fire season and extend it for several seasons, from late spring to fall. A strong interannual variation of the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) during the early warm season was also found in the 35 year period 1979 - 2013 of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Thus, it is crucial to investigate the climate change impact that early warm season temperatures have on future wildfire danger potential. Our study reported here examines fine-resolution fire-weather variables for 2041-2070 projected in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The high-resolution climate data were obtained from multiple regional climate models (RCM) driven by multiple climate scenarios projected from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in conjunction with multiple greenhouse gas concentration pathways. The local wildfire potential in future climate is investigated using both the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) and the

  4. Towards a climate impact assessment of the Tarim River, NW China: integrated hydrological modelling using SWIM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wortmann, Michel

    2014-05-01

    The Tarim River is the principle water source of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, NW China and the country's largest endorheic river, terminating in the Taklamakan desert. The vast majority of discharge is generated in the glaciated mountain ranges to the north (Tian Shan), south (Kunlun Shan/Tibetan Plateau) and west (Pamir Mountains) of the Taklamakan desert. The main water user is the intensive irrigation agriculture for mostly cotton and fruit production in linear river oases of the middle and lower reaches as well as a population of 10 Mil. people. Over the past 40 years, an increase in river discharge was reported, assumed to be caused by enhanced glacier melt due to a warming climate. Rapid population growth and economic development have led to a significant expansion of area under irrigation, resulting in water shortages for downstream users and the floodplain vegetation. Water resource planning and management of the Tarim require integrated assessment tools to examine changes under future climate change, land use and irrigation scenarios. The development of such tools, however, is challenged by sparse climate and discharge data as well as available data on water abstractions and diversions. The semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was implemented for the headwater and middle reaches that generate over 90% of discharge, including the Aksu, Hotan and Yarkant rivers. It includes the representation of snow and glacier melt as well as irrigation abstractions. Once calibrated and validated to river discharge, the model is used to analyse future climate scenarios provided by one physically-based and one statistical regional climate model (RCM). Preliminary results of the model calibration and validation indicate that SWIM is able simulate river discharge adequately, despite poor data conditions. Snow and glacier melt account for the largest share in river discharge. The modelling results will devise

  5. Impact of WRF Physics and Grid Resolution on Low-level Wind Prediction: Towards the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Future Wind Power

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H S; Glascoe, L; Lundquist, J; Wharton, S

    2010-02-24

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used in short-range simulations to explore the sensitivity of model physics and horizontal grid resolution. We choose five events with the clear-sky conditions to study the impact of different planetary boundary layer (PBL), surface and soil-layer physics on low-level wind forecast for two wind farms; one in California (CA) and the other in Texas (TX). Short-range simulations are validated with field measurements. Results indicate that the forecast error of the CA case decreases with increasing grid resolution due to the improved representation of valley winds. Besides, the model physics configuration has a significant impact on the forecast error at this location. In contrast, the forecast error of the TX case exhibits little dependence on grid resolution and is relatively independent of physics configuration. Therefore, the occurrence frequency of lowest root mean square errors (RMSEs) at this location is used to determine an optimal model configuration for subsequent decade-scale regional climate model (RCM) simulations. In this study, we perform two sets of 20-year RCM simulations using the data from the NCAR Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations; one set models the present climate and the other simulates the future climate. These RCM simulations will be used to assess the impact of climate change on future wind energy.

  6. Developing a climatological / hydrological baseline for climate change impact assessment in a remote mountain region - an example from Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salzmann, N.; Huggel, C.; Calanca, P.; Diaz, A.; Jonas, T.; Konzelmann, T.; Lagos, P.; Rohrer, M.; Silverio, W.; Zappa, M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the availability of fresh water caused by climatic changes will become a major issue in the coming years and decades. In this context, regions presently depending on water from retreating mountain glaciers are particularly vulnerable. In many parts of the Andes for example, people already suffer from the impacts of reduced glacier run off. Therefore, the development and implementation of adequate adaptation measures is an urgent need. To better understand the impact of climate change on water resources in the Andean region, a new research program (PACC - Programa de Adaptación al Cambio Climático en el Perú) between Peru and Switzerland has recently been launched by SDC (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation). As a first step, a scientific baseline relative to climatology, hydrology, agriculture and natural disasters will be developed on a regional scale for the Departments of Cusco and Apurimac in close cooperation with partners from Universities and governmental institutions as well as NGOs in Peru. A reliable data baseline is a must for the development of adaptation measures that can effectively cope with the risks induced by climate change. The realization of this task in remote mountain regions, where observational data are generally sparse, however, is challenging. Temporal and spatial gaps must be filled using indirect methods such as re-analyses, remote sensing and interpolation techniques. For future scenarios, the use of climate model output along with statistical and dynamical downscaling is indicated. This contribution will present and discuss approaches and possible concepts to tackle the challenges in a Peruvian context. In addition, first experiences will be reported particularly on cross-disciplinary issues that naturally emerge from the integrative perspective needed in climate change impact assessments and the development of adaptation strategies.

  7. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Streamflow and Reservoir Operation for Nuuanu Watershed, Oahu, Hawaii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leta, O. T.; El-Kadi, A. I.; Dulaiova, H.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme events, such as flooding and drought, are expected to occur at increased frequencies worldwide due to climate change influencing the water cycle. This is particularly critical for tropical islands where the local freshwater resources are very sensitive to climate. This study examined the impact of climate change on extreme streamflow, reservoir water volume and outflow for the Nuuanu watershed, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Based on the sensitive parameters screened by the Latin Hypercube-One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) method, SWAT was calibrated and validated to daily streamflow using the SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP) at three streamflow gauging stations. Results showed that SWAT adequately reproduced the observed daily streamflow hydrographs at all stations. This was verified with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency that resulted in acceptable values of 0.58 to 0.88, whereby more than 90% of observations were bracketed within 95% model prediction uncertainty interval for both calibration and validation periods, signifying the potential applicability of SWAT for future prediction. The climate change impact on extreme flows, reservoir water volume and outflow was assessed under the Representative Concentration Pathways of 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We found wide changes in extreme peak and low flows ranging from -44% to 20% and -50% to -2%, respectively, compared to baseline. Consequently, the amount of water stored in Nuuanu reservoir will be decreased up to 27% while the corresponding outflow rates are expected to decrease up to 37% relative to the baseline. In addition, the stored water and extreme flows are highly sensitive to rainfall change when compared to temperature and solar radiation changes. It is concluded that the decrease in extreme low and peak flows can have serious consequences, such as flooding, drought, with detrimental effects on riparian ecological functioning. This study's results are expected to aid in

  8. A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

  9. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Flood Regime in France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sauquet, E.; Vidal, J.; Perrin, C.; Bourgin, P.; Chauveau, M.; Chazot, S.

    2012-12-01

    Changes in river flows are associated with different types of uncertainties, due to an imperfect knowledge of both future climate and rainfall-runoff processes. Due to computational constraints, impact and adaptation studies unfortunately cannot always afford to perform a detailed analysis of all these uncertainties. In that case, the modelling efforts have to focus on the most relevant source of uncertainty in order to provide the best estimate of the overall uncertainty. As part of the national Explore2070 project, the present study thus aims at assessing the hierarchy of uncertainties in changes on river flow extremes at the scale of France. Amongst all possible sources of uncertainties, two are here considered: (1) the uncertainty in General Circulation Model (GCM) configuration, with 7 different models that adequately sample the range of changes as projected by the GCMs used in the IPCC AR4 over France, and (2) the uncertainty in hydrological model structure, with 2 quite different models: GR4J (Perrin et al., 2003), a lumped conceptual model, and Isba-Modcou (Habets et al., 2008), a suite of a land surface scheme and a distributed hydrogeological model. The hydrological models have been run at more than 1500 locations in France over the 1961-1990 baseline period with forcings from both the Safran near-surface atmospheric reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010) and the GCM control runs downscaled with a weather type method (Boé et al., 2006), and over the 2046-2065 period with forcings from all downscaled GCM runs under the A1B emissions scenario. Single station flood frequency analyses were performed on 405 locations with observed discharges. Using Hosking and Wallis heterogeneity measures homogeneous regions were defined. Regional flood frequency analysis has been performed. Changes in homogeneity and changes in regional growth curvehave been examined. The analysis has accounted for the performance of the two hydrological models to quantify the confidence in future

  10. A Global and Spatially Explicit Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production and Consumptive Water Use

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security. PMID:23460901

  11. A global and spatially explicit assessment of climate change impacts on crop production and consumptive water use.

    PubMed

    Liu, Junguo; Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Röckström, Johan; Abbaspour, Karim; Zehnder, Alexander J B

    2013-01-01

    Food security and water scarcity have become two major concerns for future human's sustainable development, particularly in the context of climate change. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on the production and water use of major cereal crops on a global scale with a spatial resolution of 30 arc-minutes for the 2030s (short term) and the 2090s (long term), respectively. Our findings show that impact uncertainties are higher on larger spatial scales (e.g., global and continental) but lower on smaller spatial scales (e.g., national and grid cell). Such patterns allow decision makers and investors to take adaptive measures without being puzzled by a highly uncertain future at the global level. Short-term gains in crop production from climate change are projected for many regions, particularly in African countries, but the gains will mostly vanish and turn to losses in the long run. Irrigation dependence in crop production is projected to increase in general. However, several water poor regions will rely less heavily on irrigation, conducive to alleviating regional water scarcity. The heterogeneity of spatial patterns and the non-linearity of temporal changes of the impacts call for site-specific adaptive measures with perspectives of reducing short- and long-term risks of future food and water security.

  12. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Species Habitats and Distributions in the Southeastern U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collazo, J. A.; Grand, J. B.; Terando, A.; Nichols, J. D.; McKerrow, A.

    2009-05-01

    Adapting to and mitigating for the impacts of climate change on wildlife will require scale and resource specific analyses. In the Southeastern U.S. a variety of disturbances (e.g. urbanization, plant succession) including those affected by climate change (e.g. sea level rise, fire frequency) impact the suitability of habitat through time. In order to adapt their management strategies, resource managers and policy makers will need tools to understand the full range of possible future conditions. Here we describe and offer preliminary results on two studies designed to project the future range of conditions for wildlife habitat in the southeast. In the first project we use Monte Carlo simulations to project landscape dynamics and subsequent availability of habitats for priority species in the Southern Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative (SAMBI) region. In that study, the indirect impacts of climate change are incorporated through the influence of temperature and convective precipitation on fire potential. Fires influences the landscape dynamics through state transitions (e.g., late open canopy, early closed canopy), that are determined probabilistically. Initially the relationship between the climate variables and fire potential were projected out to 2100 using twelve of the Global Climate Models. Currently, we are working with Texas Technological University to refine predictions of fire potential using regionally-scaled climate models. A variety of management and climate scenarios are being run to allow decision makers to make direct comparisons between predictions based on those scenarios (i.e., acres of habitat, connectivity of habitat). Results are supplied to resource managers in the form a decision support tools based on the priority species guilds in the region. A second more extensive effort, the Southeastern Pilot, will use occupancy models to assess range dynamics of North American land birds. Local probabilities of extinction and colonization are viewed as

  13. Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow dynamics in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Y.; Beighley, E.

    2015-12-01

    The Amazon River basin is the largest watershed in the world containing thousands of tributaries. Although the mainstream and its larger tributaries have been the focus on much research, there has been few studies focused on the hydrodynamics of smaller rivers in the foothills of the Andes Mountains. These smaller rivers are of particular importance for the fishery industry because fish migrate up these headwater rivers to spawn. During the rainy season, fish wait for storm event to increase water depths to a sufficient level for their passage. Understanding how streamflow dynamics will change in response to future conditions is vital for the sustainable management of the fishery industry. In this paper, we focus on improving the accuracy of river discharge estimates on relatively small-scale sub-catchments (100 ~ 40,000 km2) in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin. The Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model and remotely sensed datasets are used. We provide annual runoff, seasonal patterns, and daily discharge characteristics for 81 known migration reaches. The model is calibrated for the period 2000-2014 and climate forecasts for the period 2070-2100 are used to assess future changes in streamflow dynamics. The forecasts for the 2070 to 2100 period were obtained by selecting 5 climate models from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate. The river network for the HRR model is developing using surface topography based on the SRTM digital elevation model. Key model forcings include precipitation (TRMM 3B42) and evapotranspiration (MODIS ET, MOD16). Model parameters for soil depth, hydraulic conductivity, runoff coefficients and lateral routing were initially approximated based on literature values and adjusted during calibration. Measurements from stream gauges located near the reaches of interest were used for

  14. National Climate Assessment

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-05-06

    NASA Earth Science Division Director Michael Freilich shows meteorologists a model of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory during a media event for the release of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 6, 2014. NASA Earth-observing satellite observations and analysis by the NASA-supported research community underlie many of the findings in the new climate change assessment. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

  15. Wind power: Addressing wildlife impacts, assessing effects on tourism, and examining the link between climate change perceptions and support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lilley, Meredith Blaydes

    As the world's most rapidly growing source of energy, wind power has vast potential for mitigating climate change and advancing global environmental sustainability. Yet, the challenges facing wind energy remain both complex and substantial. Two such challenges are: 1) wildlife impacts; and 2) perceived negative effects on tourism. This dissertation examines these challenges in a multi-paper format, and also investigates the role that climate change perceptions play in garnering public support for wind power. The first paper assesses optimal approaches for addressing wind power's wildlife impacts. Comparative analysis reveals that avian mortality from turbines ranks far behind avian mortality from a number of other anthropogenic sources. Additionally, although bats have recently emerged as more vulnerable to wind turbines than birds, they are generally less federally protected. The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) protects over 800 bird species, regardless of their threatened or endangered status. Moreover, it criminalizes the incidental take of birds without a permit and simultaneously grants no permits for such incidental take, thereby creating a legal conundrum for the wind industry. An examination of the legislative and case history of the MBTA, however, reveals that wind operators are not likely to be prosecuted for incidental take if they cooperate with the U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service (FWS) and take reasonable steps to reduce siting and operational impacts. Furthermore, this study's analysis reveals modest wildlife impacts from wind power, in comparison with numerous other energy sources. Scientific-research, legal, and policy recommendations are provided to update the present legal and regulatory regime under the MBTA and to minimize avian and bat impacts. For instance, FWS should: establish comprehensive federal guidelines for wind facility siting, permitting, monitoring, and mitigation; and promulgate regulations under the MBTA for the issuance of

  16. Assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin: incorporating water management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adam, J. C.; Rajagopalan, K.; Stockle, C. O.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C. E.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Nelson, R.

    2014-12-01

    moving through growth stages earlier in the season with wetter and warmer spring conditions. Incorporating regulations into integrated modeling framework results in a more realistic assessment of climate change impacts.

  17. Assessing the impacts of climate change in Mediterranean catchments under conditions of data scarcity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, Swen; Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. While there is scientific consensus that climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean regions are presently occurring and are projected to amplify in the future, very little knowledge is available about the quantification of these changes, which is hampered by a lack of suitable and cost effective hydrological monitoring and modeling systems. The European FP7-project CLIMB is aiming to analyze climate induced changes on the hydrology of the Mediterranean Basins by investigating 7 test sites located in the countries Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Gaza and Egypt. CLIMB employs a combination of novel geophysical field monitoring concepts, remote sensing techniques and integrated hydrologic modeling to improve process descriptions and understanding and to quantify existing uncertainties in climate change impact analysis. The Rio Mannu Basin, located in Sardinia; Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The catchment has a size of 472.5 km2, it ranges from 62 to 946 meters in elevation, at mean annual temperatures of 16°C and precipitation of about 700 mm, the annual runoff volume is about 200 mm. The physically based Water Simulation Model WaSiM Vers. 2 (Schulla & Jasper (1999)) was setup to model current and projected future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as common to many Mediterranean catchments. The lack of available measured input data hampers the calibration of the model setup and the validation of model outputs. State of the art remote sensing techniques and field measuring techniques were applied to improve the quality of hydrological input parameters. In a field campaign about 250 soil samples were collected and lab-analyzed. Different geostatistical regionalization methods were tested to improve the

  18. Assessing Impacts of Human-Induced Climate Change on California's Meteorological Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ragno, E.; Aghakouchak, A.

    2015-12-01

    Many studies have shown that the atmosphere has warmed because of human activities including increased anthropogenic CO2 emissions. However, the impacts of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on meteorological droughts and precipitation patterns are not well understood. In this study, we used historical runs of CMIP5 simulations under pre-industrial and industrial forcings. The two forcings represent rainfall, excluding and including anthropogenic CO2 emissions, respectively. The pre-industrial and current climate simulations are analyzed and compared using a series of techniques including entropy and Wavelet transform. The latter, widely used in signal processing, can detect hidden signal frequencies that cannot be retrieved from the original data. This presentation summarizes our findings and offers prospects for future research.

  19. Impacts of urbanization on summer climate in China: An assessment with coupled land-atmospheric modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Qian; Yu, Deyong; Georgescu, Matei; Wu, Jianguo

    2016-09-01

    China has experienced unprecedented urbanization since the 1980s, resulting in substantial climatic effects from local cities to broad regions. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model dynamically coupled to an urban canopy model, we quantified the summertime climate effects of urban expansion in China's most rapidly urbanizing regions: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD). High-resolution landscape data of each urban agglomeration for 1988, 2000, and 2010 were used for simulations. Our results indicated summertime urban warming of 0.85°C for BTH, 0.78°C for YRD, and 0.57°C for PRD, which was substantially greater than previous estimates. Peak summer warming for BTH, YRD, and PRD was 1.5°C, 1°C, and 0.8°C, respectively. In contrast, the loss of moisture was greatest in PRD, with maximum reduction in 2 m water vapor mixing ratio close to 1 g/kg, followed by YRD and BTH with local peak humidity deficits reaching 0.8 g/kg and 0.6 g/kg, respectively. Our results were in better agreement with observations than prior studies because of the usage of high-resolution landscape data and the inclusion of key land-atmospheric interactions. Our study also demonstrated that the warming impacts of polycentric urban forms were less intense but more extensive in space, whereas large concentrated urban aggregations produced much stronger but localized warming effects. These findings provide critical knowledge that improves our understanding of urban-atmospheric interactions, with important implications for urban landscape management and planning to alleviate the negative impacts of urban heat islands.

  20. Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip; Halthore, Rangasayi

    2009-01-01

    This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

  1. Assessing Public Health Impacts of Heat and Air Quality Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Metropolitan Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knowlton, K.; Kinney, P. L.; Rosenthal, J. E.; Lynn, B.; Gaffin, S.; Hogrefe, C.; Biswas, J.; Civerolo, K.; Ku, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Goldberg, R.

    2003-12-01

    New tools are needed for assessing public health impacts of climate change. This paper describes the results of an integrated assessment of the health impacts of global climate change in the New York metropolitan region, projected for the decade of the 2050s. The model systems used for this study are the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality. Simulations are performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2050s, using greenhouse gas emissions projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario. The GISS global climate model at 4 x 5 degree horizontal resolution is used as input to the MM5 model run at nested grids down to 36 km resolution. The MM5 at 36 km subsequently serves as input for the CMAQ ozone simulations. A risk assessment modeling framework is used to estimate summer heat- and ozone-related mortality in the region, with a focus on comparing respective estimates for the 1990s versus the 2050s. These endpoints represent two potentially appreciable public health impacts resulting from climate change-induced alterations in regional temperature and air quality profiles. Concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature describing temperature-mortality and ozone-mortality relationships are applied in the risk assessment, to estimate numbers of regional deaths in a typical 1990s summer and a typical 2050s summer. An evaluation to define ozone-related mortality uses a minimum-value threshold applied across the 1-hour daily maximum ozone model outputs, to identify days that pose an elevated relative risk of ozone mortality. A parallel evaluation of heat-related mortality applies a 23.08° C (73.54° F) threshold value, above which the relative risk of heat

  2. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water Allocation in Karkheh River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davtalabsabet, R.; Madani, K.; Massah, A.; Farajzadeh, M.

    2013-12-01

    Rahman Davtalab1, 2, Kaveh Madani2, Alireza Massah3, Manouchehr Farajzadeh1 1Department of Geography, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran 2Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA 3Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Abureyhan , University of Tehran, Iran Abstract Karkheh river basin, with an area of 50,000 km2 is located, in southwest Iran. This basin supplies water for major agricultural activities and large hydropower production in five Iranian provinces with the total population of four million people. Due to development and population growth, this large trans-boundary basin is incapable of meeting the water demands of the five riparian provinces, causing water allocation conflicts in the region. The situation has been exacerbated by the frequent droughts and is expected to worsen further by climate change. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability and allocation in this basin. First, outputs of several General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios for different future time horizons are statistically downscaled. Then multiple river flow time series (RFTS) are generated by feeding GCM outputs into a HEC-HMS model, using the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA). Given a wide range of variations in GCM outputs and the resulting RFTS, the Ward's method is used to identity different RFTS clusters. Clustering helps with increasing the ability of the modeler to test a range of possible future conditions while reducing the redundancies in input data. Karkheh river basin's ability to meet the growing demand under decreasing flows is evaluated for each RFTS cluster representative. Results indicate that Karkheh river flow might decrease by 50% toward the end of the century. This would decrease the reliability of agricultural water deliveries from 78-95% to less than 50%. While currently hydropower dams can only

  4. Integrated Modeling to Assess the Impacts of Changes in Climate and Socio Economics on Agriculture in the Columbia River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajagopalan, K.; Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Malek, K.; Nelson, R.; Stockle, C.; Brady, M.; Dinesh, S.; Barber, M. E.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.

    2012-12-01

    The objective of this work is to assess the impacts of climate change and socio economics on agriculture in the Columbia River basin (CRB) in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. and a portion of Southwestern Canada. The water resources of the CRB are managed to satisfy multiple objectives including agricultural withdrawal, which is the largest consumptive user of CRB water with 14,000 square kilometers of irrigated area. Agriculture is an important component of the region's economy, with an annual value over 5 billion in Washington State alone. Therefore, the region is relevant for applying a modeling framework that can aid agriculture decision making in the context of a changing climate. To do this, we created an integrated biophysical and socio-economic regional modeling framework that includes human and natural systems. The modeling framework captures the interactions between climate, hydrology, crop growth dynamics, water management and socio economics. The biophysical framework includes a coupled macro-scale physically-based hydrology model (the Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC model), and crop growth model (CropSyst), as well as a reservoir operations simulation model. Water rights data and instream flow target requirements are also incorporated in the model to simulate the process of curtailment during water shortage. The economics model informs the biophysical model of the short term agricultural producer response to water shortage as well as the long term agricultural producer response to domestic growth and international trade in terms of an altered cropping pattern. The modeling framework was applied over the CRB for the historical period 1976-2006 and compared to a future 30-year period centered on the 2030s. Impacts of climate change on irrigation water availability, crop irrigation demand, frequency of curtailment, and crop yields are quantified and presented. Sensitivity associated with estimates of water availability, irrigation demand, crop

  5. Using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble to assess climate change impacts on water scarcity in Mediterranean river basins.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gampe, David; Nikulin, Grigory; Ludwig, Ralf

    2017-04-01

    The Mediterranean is likely to experience increased pressure on the water resources due to decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures. However, assessment of hydrological quantities in Mediterranean basins is often hampered by the lack of observational data. To overcome the issue of data scarcity the hydrological relevant variables total runoff, surface evaporation, precipitation and air temperature are taken from climate model simulations directly in this study. The ensemble applied in this study consists of 22 simulations, derived from different combinations of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) forcing different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) at 12 km horizontal resolution provided through the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Four river basins in the Mediterranean (Adige, Ebro, Evrotas and Sava) are selected as study areas and the climate change signals for the future period 2035-2065 compared to the reference period 1981- 2010 are investigated. Decreased runoff and evaporation indicate increased water scarcity over the Ebro and the Evrotas, as well as the southern parts of the Adige and the Sava, resulting from a temperature increase of 1-3° and precipitation decrease of up to 30%. Most severe changes are projected for the summer months indicating further pressure on the river basins already at least partly characterized by flow intermittency. The widely used Falkenmark indicator is presented and confirms this tendency and shows the necessity for spatially distributed analysis and high resolution projections. Related uncertainties are addressed by the means of a variance decomposition and model agreement to determine the robustness of the projections. The study highlights the importance of high resolution climate projections and represents a feasible approach to assess climate impacts on water scarcity also in regions that suffer from data scarcity.

  6. Impact of Climate Change on extreme flows across Great Britain: a comparison of extreme value distributions and uncertainty assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collet, Lila; Beevers, Lindsay; Prudhomme, Christel

    2016-04-01

    Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk to life and property worldwide, causing over £6B worth of damage to the UK since 2000. Climate projections are predicted to result in the increase of UK properties at risk from flooding. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme high flows in particular, and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period event across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database and analyses daily runoff over 1961-2098 for 281 gauging stations. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Pareto (GP) distribution functions are automatically fitted for 11 climate-change ensembles over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for each gauging station. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) distributions, and the uncertainty related to the climate model parameterization. Then it assesses return levels with combined uncertainties across Great Britain for both EV distributions. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture of extreme flows assessed by the two methods and allows a direct comparison between them. Results show that the GP distribution computes higher runoff estimates than the GEV distribution. Generally, the uncertainties associated with both distributions are similar, but the GP computes significantly higher uncertainties for stations in the south and southeast of England. From the baseline to the 2080s horizon, the GEV distribution shows variable runoff trends across Great Britain, while the GP distribution shows an increasing trend of return level estimate and uncertainties, especially in the northeast and southeast of England. The lowest climate model and extreme value uncertainty is generally seen across the west coast of Great Britain. In terms of uncertainty, with the GEV

  7. Integrated assessment of socioeconomic and climate change on the Broads National Park, UK, using the 'Regional Impact Simulator'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holman, I. P.

    2007-12-01

    The Broads National Park, located in the east of England is the UK's only wetland National Park. Located in a low-lying area of intensive arable agriculture in the driest part of England, it faces many challenges. The 'Regional Impact Simulator' is a user friendly software tool designed to allow UK stakeholders to perform regional integrated assessments of the effects of socio-economic and/or climate change on important sectors and resources. This includes assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The development of this regional tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK, which was limited by very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Using the 'Regional Impact Simulator' for a range of socio-economic and emissions scenarios for the 2050s, The Broads in will face a diverse range of challenges related to: 1) Changes in coastal and fluvial flood risk - increased sea level and fluvial flows will increase flood risk for current flood defences; 2) Changing agricultural practices, associated with changing farmer responses to policy, will affect nutrient losses and habitats 3) Changes in water abstraction and discharge - irrigation demand will increase as water resources decrease. However future water availability is a consequence of both societal and policy priorities towards abstraction, and the changing patterns of urbanization and water usage; 4) Changes in habitats especially coastal habitats - saltmarsh will tend to be lost due to sea level rise, although managed realignment may increase stocks at the expense of coastal grazing marshes Socio-economic changes can be as (if not more) important than direct climate change-induced impacts, but the impacts of these changes depend on the choices society makes (e.g. flood defence policy; water demand

  8. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  9. Assessing impact of climate and land use change on water quality in two contrasting meso-scale catchments in Poland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcinkowski, Pawel; Kardel, Ignacy; Ksiezniak, Marta; Berezowski, Tomasz; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Piniewski, Mikolaj

    2016-04-01

    The Upper Narew (4280 km2) and the Barycz (5520 km2) are two Polish, meso-scale, lowland catchments, contrasting in terms of land use, water management and water quality. Semi-distributed process-based SWAT model was applied in both catchments for assessment of climate change impact on selected water quality parameters. The model setup was developed based on high-resolution inputs, e.g. 5 km gridded precipitation and temperature dataset and 30 m Landsat8-based land cover map. Multi-site calibration and validation against observed discharge, sediment loads and nutrients loads (nitrogen and phosphorus compounds) gave predominantly satisfactory goodness-of-fit measures which enabled further model use for scenario analysis. Impact of land use on water quality can be assessed by comparing nutrients loads and concentrations simulated for the current conditions between two contrasting catchments. Both specific loads and concentrations of major nitrogen and phosphorous forms were on average 80-100% higher in the Barycz than in the Upper Narew catchment. This is a result of more intensive agricultural practices taking place in the Barycz, unlike the Upper Narew where agriculture is mostly extensive. Large parts of the Barycz catchment have been designed as the Nitrates Vulnerable Zones and since 2007 there are legal restrictions concerning agricultural practices in these areas. Nine GCM-RCM runs projected to the year 2100 for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 provided within the EURO-CORDEX experiment were first bias-corrected using quantile mapping method and then used as an ensemble of climate change scenarios in SWAT. Precipitation projections were largely consistent in showing an increasing precipitation trend, present particularly in winter and spring, in both catchments. This clearly affected the hydrological and biogeochemical cycle and resulted in higher projected water yield, increased erosion, and elevated nitrogen and phosphorus emission to water bodies. The rate of change caused

  10. Harnessing Historical Climate Variability to Assess Multivariate Climate Changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahony, C. R.; Cannon, A. J.; Aitken, S. N.

    2015-12-01

    Climate is intrinsically multivariate—the collective influence of various aspects of weather at different times of year. A central challenge of climate change impact analysis is therefore to characterize changes in multiple temperature and precipitation variables simultaneously. Historical climate variability provides key context for relating climate variables to each other and assessing collective deviations from historical climate conditions. We have developed a Mahalanobian probability metric to describe spatial and temporal climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability. Our approach is particularly suited to evaluation of climate analogs in space and time, but also facilitates multivariate extensions to several prominent indices of climate change. We use this metric to detect the departure of multivariate climate conditions from the historical range of local variability across North America and to identify regions that are particularly susceptible to emergence of no-analog climates. With respect to interpreting climate extremes, some critical considerations emerge from this research. In particular, we highlight the potential for temporal aggregation to exaggerate the statistical significance of extreme conditions, and the dilemma of identifying an appropriate statistical distribution for precipitation across both space and time. Despite the challenges of interpreting the specific impacts associated with multivariate climate changes and extremes, expressing these conditions relative to historical climate variability provides a useful first approximation of their ecological and socioeconomic significance. Figure Caption: Demonstration of the use of the chi distribution to measure spatial climatic dissimilarity in terms of local interannual climatic variability.

  11. Assessment of climate impacts on the karst-related carbon sink in SW China using MPD and GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Sibo; Jiang, Yongjun; Liu, Zaihua

    2016-09-01

    Riverine carbon fluxes of some catchments in the world have significantly changed due to contemporary climate change and human activities. As a large region with an extensive karstic area of nearly 7.5 × 105 km2, Southwest (SW) China has experienced dramatic climate changes during recent decades. Although some studies have investigated the karst-related carbon sink in some parts of this region, the importance of climate impacts have not been assessed. This research examined the impacts of recent climate change on the karst-related carbon sink in the SW China for the period 1970-2013, using a modified maximal potential dissolution (MPD) method and GIS. We first analyzed the major determinants of carbonate dissolution at a spatial scale, calculated the total karst-related carbon sink (TCS) and carbon sink fluxes (CSFs) in the SW China karst region with different types of carbonate rocks, and then compared with other methods, and analyzed the causes of CSFs variations under the changed climate conditions. The results show that the TCS in SW China experienced a dramatic change with regional climate, and there was a trend with TCS decreasing by about 19% from 1970s to 2010s. This decrease occurred mostly in Guizhou and Yunnan provinces, which experienced larger decreases in runoff depth in the past 40 years (190 mm and 90 mm, respectively) due to increased air temperature (0.33 °C and 1.04 °C, respectively) and decreased precipitation (156 mm and 106 mm, respectively). The mean value of CSFs in SW China, calculated by the modified MPD method, was approximately 9.36 t C km- 2 a- 1. In addition, there were large differences in CSFs among the provinces, attributed to differences in regional climate and to carbonate lithologies. These spatiotemporal changes depended mainly on hydrological variations (i.e., discharge or runoff depth). This work, thus, suggests that the karst-related carbon sink could respond to future climate change quickly, and needs to be considered in

  12. Climate Assessment for 2002

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waple, A. M.; Lawrimore, J. H.

    2003-04-01

    It is the thirteenth year that the Climate Assessment has been written to summarize the state of the earth's climate, and the third year that the National Climatic Data Center has taken the lead in its production. It is a cooperative effort that includes contributions from scientists around the country and the world. Neutral ENSO conditions at the beginning of 2002 gave way to a strengthening El Niño episode during late boreal summer and continuing into early winter. Weather patterns across the world began to reflect the positive ENSO conditions during the boreal autumn. Global temperatures in 2002 were 0.56°C above the long-term (1880-2001) average, which places 2002 as the second warmest year on record. Land temperatures were 0.89°C above average and ocean temperatures were 0.42°C above the 1880-2001 mean. This ranks both land and ocean as second warmest on record. The Northern Hemisphere temperature continues to average near record levels in 2002 at 0.63°C above the long-term average. The Southern Hemisphere also reflects the globally warmer conditions, with a positive anomaly of 0.47°C. Annual anomalies in excess of 1.0°C were widespread across much of Russia, Eastern Europe, Alaska, and central South America, while significantly cooler than average conditions were confined to the eastern half of Canada, southern South America and the eastern Pacific Ocean, near the coast of the United States. Although 12 tropical storms developed in the Atlantic during the boreal summer of 2002, most of them were weak and short-lived leading to a slightly below normal season in terms of overall activity, which is consistent with the developing El Nino. However, seven tropical storms made landfall on the coast of the United States, with an eighth brushing the coast of North Carolina. Hurricane Lili was the first hurricane to impact the U.S. directly in three years. Other notable aspects of the climate in 2002 include extreme drought in parts of the U.S., Canada and

  13. Economic Impacts from the Boulder County, Colorado, ClimateSmart Loan Program: Using Property-Assessed Clean Energy Financing

    SciTech Connect

    Goldberg, M.; Cliburn, J. K.; Coughlin, J.

    2011-04-01

    This report examines the economic impacts (including job creation) from the Boulder County, Colorado, ClimateSmart Loan Program (CSLP), an example of Property-Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) financing. The CSLP was the first test of PACE financing on a multi-jurisdictional level (involving individual cities as well as the county government). It was also the first PACE program to comprehensively address energy efficiency measures and renewable energy, and it was the first funded by a public offering of both taxable and tax-exempt bonds.

  14. How the biodiversity sciences may aid biological tools and ecological engineering to assess the impact of climatic changes.

    PubMed

    Morand, S; Guégan, J-F

    2008-08-01

    This paper addresses how climate changes interact with other global changes caused by humans (habitat fragmentation, changes in land use, bioinvasions) to affect biodiversity. Changes in biodiversity at all levels (genetic, population and community) affect the functioning of ecosystems, in particular host-pathogen interactions, with major consequences in health ecology (emergence and re-emergence; the evolution of virulence and resistance). In this paper, the authors demonstrate that the biodiversity sciences, epidemiological theory and evolutionary ecology are indispensable in assessing the impact of climate changes, and also for modelling the evolution of host-pathogen interactions in a changing environment. The next step is to apply health ecology to the science of ecological engineering.

  15. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Event Types in Two Alpine Catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turkington, T.; Breinl, K.; Jetten, V.; Ettema, J.

    2014-12-01

    A variety of different climate factors can trigger floods: intense rainfall, long lasting rainfall or extreme amount of snowmelt. As a result, changes in climate extremes can affect both the frequency of floods, but also other factors such as seasonality and duration, all of which have implications on local social and ecological systems. Therefore, we present a technique for examining projected changes in flood events types, focusing on antecedent meteorological conditions. Floods (characterized by the historical 10 and 25-year return level discharge) are clustered into causal types based on rainfall, antecedent precipitation and temperature. A multi-site weather generator coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is employed to increase the number of flood events. Quantile mapping of precipitation and temperature projections is then used in the development of future discharge. The technique is applied to two different catchments in the European Alps: a smaller catchment in the southern French Alps, dominated by rain-on-snow floods, and a larger catchment in Austria, with more floods during summer. The results show that changes in precipitation and temperature can alter not only the frequency, but also the distribution of flood event types in the future. Furthermore, assessing changes in flood event types provides information about why the frequency of floods in an alpine catchment may change, even if the projections themselves are highly uncertain.

  16. AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL WATER RESOURCES BY USING A WATER SCARCITY INDEX CONSIDERING SEASONAL WATER VARIABILITY

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, Takahiro; Hanasaki, Naota; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

    Several reports have assessed water scarcity globally using a widely accepted index on an annual basis, namely, withdrawal-to-water resources ratio (WWR). Here, we ask whether it is appropriate to use the WWR to assess the impact of climate change. Global warming is projected to increase the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, decrease snowfall, and change the timing of snowmelt. To assess the impact of climate change on global water resources incorporating sub-annual time-scale phenomena, this study applies a new water scarcity index on a daily basis termed the cumulative withdrawal-to-demand ratio (CWD) . Our results indicated that global warming increased the mean annual runoff in 61% of the total land area globally. However, in 22% of the area where runoff increased, the CWD showed increased water stress. Those regions included India, northern China, and Europe. For India, the increase in water stress was attributed to the seasonal gap between runoff and water demand. The increased runoff was concentrated in a few months, while the high irrigation water demand months differed and were much longer. For Europe, the change was attributed to the shift in the timing of snowmelt, which occurred a few months earlier than at present, causing water shortages in early summer.

  17. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  18. Assessing Impact of Climate Change on the Runoffs of Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ayele, H. S.; Li, M. H.; Tung, C. P.; Liu, T. M.

    2015-12-01

    Water is the most climate sensitive sector in changing climate. Hydrological vulnerability assessment is critical to the implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of 7 GCMs in association with high (RCP8.5) and medium low (RCP4.5) representative concentration path way from the CMPI5 (fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) for the period 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 were adopted to assess the impacts of climate change on the runoffs of Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin, in Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were first screened in harmony with baseline climate statistics of study areas. Based on climate projections and statistical characteristics of historical weather data, a weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation as inputs for the GWLF hydrological model to simulate runoffs. Changes of projected temperature and precipitation were analyzed to explain variations of evapotranspiration and influences on future runoffs. We found that, despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among different GCMs, increasing in the wet and a decreasing in dry seasons runoffs were observed in both time windows, which mainly attributes to the increase of precipitations projected by most of GCMs. In contrast to great increases in runoffs, the increase of evapotranspiration by elevating temperature is less significant. The increasing runoffs in both time windows will provide more water inflow to the Lake Tana. On the other hand, the increase of precipitation in wet season makes the wet season wetter and implies higher possibility of flash floods. This will have deleterious consequences in the local community. Therefore, concerned water organizations in local, state, and federal levels shall be prepared to harness the opportunities with more water resources for utilization and management, as well as flood preventive measures.

  19. Identifying surging glaciers in the Central Karakoram for improved climate change impact assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paul, Frank; Bolch, Tobias; Mölg, Nico; Rastner, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    Several recent studies have investigated glacier changes in the Karakoram mountain range, a region where glaciers behave differently (mass gain and advancing tongues) compared to most other regions in the world. Attribution of this behaviour to climate change is challenging, as many glaciers in the Karakoram are of surge type and have actively surged in the recent past. The measured changes in length, area, volume or velocity in this region are thus depending on the time-period analysed and include non-climatic components. Hence, a proper analysis of climate change impacts on glaciers in this region requires a separation of the surging from the non-surging glaciers. This is challenging as the former often lack the typical surface characteristics such as looped moraines (e.g. when they are steep and small) and/or they merge (during a surge) with a larger non-surging glacier and create looped moraines on its surface. By analysing time series of satellite images that are available since 1961, the heterogeneous behaviour of glaciers in the Karakoram can be revealed. In this study, we have analysed changes in glacier terminus positions in the Karakoram over different time periods from 1961 to 2014 for several hundred glaciers using Corona KH-4 and KH-4B, Hexagon KH-9, Terra ASTER, and Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and OLI satellite data. For the last 15 years, high-speed animations of image time-series reveal details of glacier flow and surge dynamics that are otherwise difficult to detect. For example, several of the larger glaciers with surging tributaries (e.g. Panmah, Sarpo Laggo, Skamri, K2 glacier) are stationary and downwasting despite the mass contributions from the surging glaciers. The analysis of the entire time series reveals a complex pattern of changes through time with retreating, advancing, surging and stationary glaciers that are partly regionally clustered. While most of the non-surging glaciers show only small changes in terminus position (±100 m or less

  20. Integrated assessment of the impact of climate and land use changes on groundwater quantity and quality in Mancha Oriental (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Peña-Haro, S.; Garcia-Prats, A.; Mocholi-Almudever, A. F.; Henriquez-Dole, L.; Macian-Sorribes, H.; Lopez-Nicolas, A.

    2014-09-01

    Climate and land use change (global change) impacts on groundwater systems cannot be studied in isolation, as various and complex interactions in the hydrological cycle take part. Land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes have a great impact on the water cycle and contaminant production and transport. Groundwater flow and storage are changing in response not only to climatic changes but also to human impacts on land uses and demands (global change). Changes in future climate and land uses will alter the hydrologic cycles and subsequently impact the quantity and quality of regional water systems. Predicting the behavior of recharge and discharge conditions under future climatic and land use changes is essential for integrated water management and adaptation. In the Mancha Oriental system in Spain, in the last decades the transformation from dry to irrigated lands has led to a significant drop of the groundwater table in one of the largest groundwater bodies in Spain, with the consequent effect on stream-aquifer interaction in the connected Jucar River. Streamflow depletion is compromising the related ecosystems and the supply to the downstream demands, provoking a complex management issue. The intense use of fertilizer in agriculture is also leading to locally high groundwater nitrate concentrations. Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability and water quality is essential for a proper management of the system. In this paper we analyze the potential impact of climate and land use change in the system by using an integrated modelling framework consisting of the sequentially coupling of a watershed agriculturally-based hydrological model (SWAT) with the ground-water model MODFLOW and mass-transport model MT3D. SWAT model outputs (mainly groundwater recharge and pumping, considering new irrigation needs under changing ET and precipitation) are used as MODFLOW inputs to simulate changes in groundwater flow and storage and impacts on stream

  1. Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold

  2. Improved hydrological model parametrization for climate change impact assessment under data scarcity - The potential of field monitoring techniques and geostatistics.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Swen; Blaschek, Michael; Duttmann, Rainer; Ludwig, Ralf

    2016-02-01

    According to current climate projections, Mediterranean countries are at high risk for an even pronounced susceptibility to changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. These changes are expected to have severe direct impacts on the management of water resources, agricultural productivity and drinking water supply. Current projections of future hydrological change, based on regional climate model results and subsequent hydrological modeling schemes, are very uncertain and poorly validated. The Rio Mannu di San Sperate Basin, located in Sardinia, Italy, is one test site of the CLIMB project. The Water Simulation Model (WaSiM) was set up to model current and future hydrological conditions. The availability of measured meteorological and hydrological data is poor as it is common for many Mediterranean catchments. In this study we conducted a soil sampling campaign in the Rio Mannu catchment. We tested different deterministic and hybrid geostatistical interpolation methods on soil textures and tested the performance of the applied models. We calculated a new soil texture map based on the best prediction method. The soil model in WaSiM was set up with the improved new soil information. The simulation results were compared to standard soil parametrization. WaSiMs was validated with spatial evapotranspiration rates using the triangle method (Jiang and Islam, 1999). WaSiM was driven with the meteorological forcing taken from 4 different ENSEMBLES climate projections for a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) times series. The climate change impact was assessed based on differences between reference and future time series. The simulated results show a reduction of all hydrological quantities in the future in the spring season. Furthermore simulation results reveal an earlier onset of dry conditions in the catchment. We show that a solid soil model setup based on short-term field measurements can improve long-term modeling results, which is especially important

  3. Integrating plant science and crop modelling: Assessment of the impact of climate change on soybean and maize production.

    PubMed

    Fodor, Nándor; Challinor, Andrew; Droutsas, Ioannis; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Zabel, Florian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Foyer, Christine H

    2017-09-15

    Increasing global CO2 emissions have profound consequences for plant biology, not least because of direct influences on carbon gain. However, much remains uncertain regarding how our major crops will respond to a future high CO2 world. Crop models inter-comparison studies have identified large uncertainties and biases associated with climate change. The need to quantify uncertainty has drawn the fields of plant molecular physiology, crop breeding and biology, and climate change modelling closer together. Comparing data from different models that have been used to assess the potential climate change impacts on soybean and maize production, future yield losses have been predicted for both major crops. However, when CO2 fertilisation effects are taken into account significant yield gains are predicted for soybean, together with a shift in global production from the Southern to the Northern hemisphere. Maize production is also forecast to shift northwards. However, unless plant breeders are able to produce new hybrids with improved traits, the forecasted yield losses for maize will only be mitigated by agro-management adaptations. In addition, the increasing demands of a growing world population will require larger areas of marginal land to be used for maize and soybean production. We summarise the outputs of crop models, together with mitigation options for decreasing the negative impacts of climate on the global maize and soybean production, providing an overview of projected land-use change as a major determining factor for future global crop production. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Japanese Society of Plant Physiologists.

  4. National Climate Assessment

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-05-06

    NASA Earth Science Division Director Michael Freilich shows meteorologists an AERONET sun photometer, right, and a model of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory during a media event for the release of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, South Lawn of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, May 6, 2014. NASA Earth-observing satellite observations and analysis by the NASA-supported research community underlie many of the findings in the new climate change assessment. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

  5. Assessing the Impact of Population Growth, Climate Change, and Land Use Change on Water Resources in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, N.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    India is poised to become the most populous country in the world by 2019 and reach a population of over 2 billion by 2050 based on current growth rates. It is also a region which will be under severe socio-economic and environmental stress if mitigation efforts are not adapted. In the past 10 years the population of India has grown by an average rate of 17 million people per year. In addition to unprecedented population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization are straining the overburdened environmental system. This rapid growth in population, urbanization and industrialized will result in increased demand for food, requiring expansion of agricultural resources. Since total agricultural land in India has been relatively constant over the past 10 years the demand for additional food has to be partly met by enhanced production on existing land. Arable land in India has declined by around 3% according to FAOSTAT while the total agricultural area under irrigation has increased by about 9% thus further straining its water resources. In addition projections for future climate indicate that India is one of the regions where water resources are expected to be negatively impacted. Total agriculture water withdrawal in India increased by approximately 18 % from 2000-2010 while the total per capita water withdrawal increased by over 9% from 2000-2010. Total freshwater withdrawal as percentage of renewable water resources was around 40% in 2010. In addition, recent mandates of biofuel policies in India are also expected to impact its water resources. The combined impact of these various factors on future water availability in India could be one of the most severe globally due its unprecedented increase in population, food production and industrialization. In this study we assess the impact of land use and climate change on water resources over southern India in the face of a growing population and interest in development of national biofuel supplies. We use

  6. Using and Applying Focus Groups in Climate Change Impact Assessment Projects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeLorme, D.; Hagen, S.

    2011-12-01

    The focus group social science research method is an efficient and flexible data collection tool with broad applicability across disciplines and contexts. Through group dynamics, this interviewing approach offers strengths in gathering candid, spontaneous comments and detailed firsthand descriptions from stakeholders' perspectives. The method, which can stand alone or be integrated with other research frameworks, has much potential for helping to manage complex issues of global change. For optimal outcomes, however, careful planning and procedures are paramount. This presentation offers guidance in this regard via examples, tips, and lessons learned from a multidisciplinary NOAA-funded project: Ecological Effects of Sea Level Rise in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (EESLR-NGOM). Focus groups are a key component of the EESLR-NGOM project as they are being used to better understand coastal resource managers' operational and information behaviors and needs regarding sea level rise (SLR), erosion, and hurricane storm surge impact; to learn how to best develop and translate the project's expected scientific results into straightforward, useful, and readily-disseminated products; and to gather outreach recommendations. As part of an EESLR-NGOM project kickoff workshop, 12 coastal resource managers participated voluntarily in a focus group. A summary of findings and illustrative participant quotations will be included in the presentation. The initial focus group was productive in gaining insights into challenges and opportunities associated with a climate change project such as the EESLR-NGOM. It highlighted the importance of considering the interrelationships of natural and built environments and new avenues for resilience and sustainability. The coastal resource managers are not only end-users but also opinion leaders in their local communities who will diffuse this information widely through their networks of other potential end-users. Engaging coastal resource managers in

  7. Quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of climate change on a combined sewer overflow and its receiving water body.

    PubMed

    Bi, Eustache Gooré; Monette, Frédéric; Gachon, Philippe; Gaspéri, Johnny; Perrodin, Yves

    2015-08-01

    Projections from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) for the southern part of the province of Québec, Canada, suggest an increase in extreme precipitation events for the 2050 horizon (2041-2070). The main goal of this study consisted in a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the 20 % increase in rainfall intensity that led, in the summer of 2013, to overflows in the "Rolland-Therrien" combined sewer system in the city of Longueuil, Canada. The PCSWMM 2013 model was used to assess the sensitivity of this overflow under current (2013) and future (2050) climate conditions. The simulated quantitative variables (peak flow, Q(CSO), and volume discharged, VD) served as the basis for deriving ecotoxicological risk indices and event fluxes (EFs) transported to the St. Lawrence (SL) River. Results highlighted 15 to 500% increases in VD and 13 to 148% increases in Q(CSO) by 2050 (compared to 2013), based on eight rainfall events measured from May to October. These results show that (i) the relationships between precipitation and combined sewer overflow variables are not linear and (ii) the design criteria for current hydraulic infrastructure must be revised to account for the impact of climate change (CC) arising from changes in precipitation regimes. EFs discharged into the SL River will be 2.24 times larger in the future than they are now (2013) due to large VDs resulting from CC. This will, in turn, lead to excessive inputs of total suspended solids (TSSs) and tracers for numerous urban pollutants (organic matter and nutrients, metals) into the receiving water body. Ecotoxicological risk indices will increase by more than 100% by 2050 compared to 2013. Given that substantial VDs are at play, and although CC scenarios have many sources of uncertainty, strategies to adapt this drainage network to the effects of CC will have to be developed.

  8. Impact of Climate Change on high and low flows across Great Britain: a temporal analysis and uncertainty assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beevers, Lindsay; Collet, Lila

    2017-04-01

    Over the past decade there have been significant challenges to water management posed by both floods and droughts. In the UK, since 2000 flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, and direct costs from the recent drought (2011-12) are estimated to be between £70-165M, arising from impacts on public and industrial water supply. Projections of future climate change suggest an increase in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards, but there is significant uncertainty associated with these projections. It thus becomes urgent to assess the possible impact of these changes on extreme flows and evaluate the uncertainties related to these projections, particularly changes in the seasonality of such hazards. This paper aims to assess the changes in seasonality of peak and low flows across Great Britain as a result of climate change. It is based on the Future Flow database; an 11-member ensemble of transient river flow projections from January 1951 to December 2098. We analyse the daily river flow over the baseline (1961-1990) and the 2080s (2069-2098) for 281 gauging stations. For each ensemble member, annual maxima (AMAX) and minima (AMIN) are extracted for both time periods for each gauging station. The month of the year the AMAX and AMIN occur respectively are recorded for each of the 30 years in the past and the future time periods. The uncertainty of the AMAX and AMIN occurrence temporally (monthly) is assessed across the 11 ensemble members, as well as the changes to this temporal signal between the baseline and the 2080s. Ultimately, this work gives a national picture (spatially) of high and low flows occurrence temporally and allows the assessment of possible changes in hydrological dynamics as a result of climate change in a statistical framework. Results will quantify the uncertainty related to the Climate Model parameters which are cascaded into the modelling chain. This study highlights the issues

  9. Multi-model assessment of climate change impacts on river discharge in three different regional scale river basins on three continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vetter, Tobias; Krysanova, Valentina; Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Aich, Valentin; Yang, Tao

    2014-05-01

    Projections of climate impacts should be provided at the regional scale using validated regional-scale models in order to supply more reliable results for decision makers and managers. In the last decade climate impact assessment was performed for different regions and sectors using different scenarios and tools. However, the results are hardly comparable and do not allow to create a full picture of impacts and to evaluate their robustness. This study aims at comparing climate impacts on seasonal water discharge as well as on trends in projected discharge quantiles. Uncertainties from different sources are evaluated. The intercomparison of impacts was done for three regions on three continents which are characterized by very different climate and land use conditions: the Rhine in Europe, the Upper Niger in Africa and the Upper Yellow River in Asia. The climate impact assessment was performed using scenarios from five General Climate Models (GCMs). The bias-corrected climate scenarios for this study were provided by the ISI-MIP project. The following GCMs were used: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5ALR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M, and NorESM1-M. The hydrological impact assessment was conducted applying the hydrological impact models HBV, SWIM and VIC. Our results suggest that the five GCMs contribute more to overall uncertainty of river discharge than the three hydrological models. Projected trends in river discharge are more variable and more often contradictory when different GCMs are compared. However, we also found significant opposite trend direction for projected river discharge using different hydrological models but the same climate input data.

  10. Occupational health impacts of climate change: current and future ISO standards for the assessment of heat stress.

    PubMed

    Parsons, Ken

    2013-01-01

    The current system of International Standards (ISO) is assessed to consider whether standards are fit for purpose for the future in the context of climate change. ISO 7243, ISO 7933 and ISO 9886 provide the current ISO system for the assessment of heat stress. These involve a simple monitoring index, an analytical approach and physiological monitoring, respectively. The system relies on accurate measurement of the thermal conditions experienced by the worker (ISO 7726); and estimations of metabolic heat production due to work (ISO 8996) and the thermal properties of clothing (ISO 9920). As well as standards for heat stress assessment, the full range of ISO standards and the physical environment is listed as well as current work and proposed standards. A particular 'gap' in anticipating requirements for ISO standards in the future is the link between meteorological data and ISO standards. This is important for predicting the global consequences of a changing climate and anticipating potential impacts on occupational health across countries and cultures.

  11. The role of model selection in representing evapotranspiration processes in climate impact assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2015-04-01

    Projected changes to near-surface atmospheric temperature, wind, humidity and solar radiation are expected to lead to changes in evaporative demand - and thus changes to the catchment water balance - in many catchments worldwide. To quantify likely implications on runoff, a modelling chain is commonly used in which the meteorological variables are first converted to potential evapotranspiration (PET), followed by the conversion of PET to runoff using one or more rainfall-runoff models. The role of the PET model and rainfall-runoff model selection on changes to the catchment water balance is assessed using a sensitivity analysis applied to data from five climatologically different catchments in Australia. Changes to temperature have the strongest influence on both evapotranspiration and runoff for all models and catchments, whereas the relative role of the remaining variables depends on both the catchment location and the PET and rainfall-runoff model choice. Importantly, sensitivity experiments show that 1) distributions of climate variables differ for dry/wet conditions; 2) seasonal distribution of changes to PET differs for driving variables. These findings suggest possible interactions between PET model selection and the way that evapotranspiration processes are represented within rainfall-runoff model. For a constant percentage change to PET, this effect can lead to five-fold difference in runoff changes depending on which meteorological variable is being perturbed.

  12. Societal Impacts of Climate Extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cutter, S. L.

    2011-12-01

    Direct economic losses from weather and climate-sensitive perils in the US are on the rise averaging more than $10billion annually during the past 50 years, a very conservative estimate. Starting in the 1990s and continuing today, crop and property losses from climate extremes are escalating, especially those related to hurricanes/ tropical storms and floods. The pattern for hazard-related mortality is less clear. However, as the US lacks a comprehensive inventory or database of natural hazard losses, these figures are rough estimates. This paper examines the temporal and spatial pattern of losses from climate-sensitive hazards for the US over the past fifty years. It illustrates that how and what you measure matters in the loss calculus (dollars or deaths, insured versus uninsured losses, impacts, or costs, or extreme versus non extreme events). The paper also examines the geographic variability in losses and the differential burdens of climate hazard losses on people and places in the U.S. The paper concludes with two questions: How can the nation reduce losses from climate-sensitive hazards when we don't know how much and where such losses occur? Furthermore, how can policy makers and practitioners assess the effectiveness of any hazard or disaster risk reduction policy when we lack the fundamental baseline of losses against which to measure progress?

  13. Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

    2006-01-01

    The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience. PMID:16966082

  14. Climate change and human health impacts in the United States: an update on the results of the U.S. national assessment.

    PubMed

    Ebi, Kristie L; Mills, David M; Smith, Joel B; Grambsch, Anne

    2006-09-01

    The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods) , air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure-response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience.

  15. Assessing air quality and climate impacts of future ground freight choice in United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.; Bond, T. C.; Smith, S.; Lee, B.; Ouyang, Y.; Hwang, T.; Barkan, C.; Lee, S.; Daenzer, K.

    2013-12-01

    The demand for freight transportation has continued to increase due to the growth of domestic and international trade. Emissions from ground freight (truck and railways) account for around 7% of the greenhouse gas emissions, 4% of the primary particulate matter emission and 25% of the NOx emissions in the U.S. Freight railways are generally more fuel efficient than trucks and cause less congestion. Freight demand and emissions are affected by many factors, including economic activity, the spatial distribution of demand, freight modal choice and routing decision, and the technology used in each modal type. This work links these four critical aspects of freight emission system to project the spatial distribution of emissions and pollutant concentration from ground freight transport in the U.S. between 2010 and 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios are used to forecast economic activities. Future spatial structure of employment and commodity demand in major metropolitan areas are estimated using spatial models and a shift-share model, respectively. Freight flow concentration and congestion patterns in inter-regional transportation networks are predicted from a four-step freight demand forecasting model. An asymptotic vehicle routing model is also developed to estimate delivery ton-miles for intra-regional freight shipment in metropolitan areas. Projected freight activities are then converted into impacts on air quality and climate. CO2 emissions are determined using a simple model of freight activity and fuel efficiency, and compared with the projected CO2 emissions from the Second Generation Model. Emissions of air pollutants including PM, NOx and CO are calculated with a vehicle fleet model SPEW-Trend, which incorporates the dynamic change of technologies. Emissions are projected under three economic scenarios to represent different plausible futures. Pollutant concentrations are then estimated using tagged chemical tracers in an atmospheric model with the emissions serving

  16. Assessing Possible Climatic Impacts of Large Wind Farms Using Satellite Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Liming; Tian, Yuhong; Baidya Roy, Somnath

    2013-04-01

    This is an invited talk. A growing number of numerical simulations with hypothetical wind farms generally agree that large wind farms might affect local to regional weather and climate. Here we present observational evidence for such impacts based on analyses of satellite derived land surface temperature (LST) data at ~1.1 km for the period of 2003-2011 over a region in West-Central Texas, where four of the world's largest wind farms are located. A warming effect is observed at nighttime over wind farms relative to nearby non-wind-farm regions while the effect at daytime is small. Its spatial pattern couples very well with wind turbines geographically, particularly at nighttime in summer, and its magnitude exhibits a persistent upward trend, corresponding to the increase of operating wind turbines with time. There are no evident changes in land surface properties over the wind farm region. No warming effects are seen for a nearby non-wind-farm region with similar topography, particularly over high elevation ridges where the wind turbines are mostly built. Together, these results suggest that the warming effect observed in MODIS over wind farms are very likely attributable to the development of wind farms. This inference is also consistent with the diurnal and seasonal variations in the frequency of wind speed and direction distribution and the changes in near-surface atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) conditions due to wind farm operations. The nocturnal ABL is typically stable and much thinner than the daytime ABL and hence the turbine enhanced vertical mixing produces a stronger nighttime effect. The stronger wind speed and the higher frequency of the wind speed within the optimal power generation range in summer than winter and at nighttime than daytime likely drives wind turbines to generate more electricity and turbulence and consequently results in the strongest warming effect at nighttime in summer. Overall, the warming effect reported here is local and small

  17. Assessing the impact of aerosol-atmosphere interactions in convection-permitting regional climate simulations: the Rolf medicane in 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; María López-Romero, José; Palacios-Peña, Laura; Montávez, Juan Pedro; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    A critical challenge for assessing regional climate change projections relies on improving the estimate of atmospheric aerosol impact on clouds and reducing the uncertainty associated with the use of parameterizations. In this sense, the horizontal grid spacing implemented in state-of-the-art regional climate simulations is typically 10-25 kilometers, meaning that very important processes such as convective precipitation are smaller than a grid box, and therefore need to be parameterized. This causes large uncertainties, as closure assumptions and a number of parameters have to be established by model tuning. Convection is a physical process that may be strongly conditioned by atmospheric aerosols, although the solution of aerosol-cloud interactions in warm convective clouds remains nowadays a very important scientific challenge, rendering parametrization of these complex processes an important bottleneck that is responsible from a great part of the uncertainty in current climate change projections. Therefore, the explicit simulation of convective processes might improve the quality and reliability of the simulations of the aerosol-cloud interactions in a wide range of atmospheric phenomena. Particularly over the Mediterranean, the role of aerosol particles is very important, being this a crossroad that fuels the mixing of particles from different sources (sea-salt, biomass burning, anthropogenic, Saharan dust, etc). Still, the role of aerosols in extreme events in this area such as medicanes has been barely addressed. This work aims at assessing the role of aerosol-atmosphere interaction in medicanes with the help of the regional chemistry/climate on-line coupled model WRF-CHEM run at a convection-permitting resolution. The analysis is exemplary based on the "Rolf" medicane (6-8 November 2011). Using this case study as reference, four sets of simulations are run with two spatial resolutions: one at a convection-permitting configuration of 4 km, and other at the

  18. Assessing potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation of three reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin under ensemble of climate projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobanova, Anastasia; Koch, Hagen; Hattermann, Fred F.; Krysanova, Valentina

    2015-04-01

    The Tagus River basin is an important strategic water and energy source for Portugal and Spain. With an extensive network of 40 reservoirs with more than 15 hm3 capacity and numerous abstraction channels it is ensuring water supply for domestic and industrial usage, irrigation and hydropower production in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over-regulation and construction of new dams, and large inter-basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate and aridity of the catchment have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge, dropping during some months to zero in some parts of the catchment, is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further. As the water inflow is a fundamental defining factor in a reservoir operation and hydropower production, the latter are highly sensitive to shifts in water balance of the catchment, and hence to changes in climate. In this study we aim to investigate the effects of projected climate change on water inflows and hydropower generation of the three large reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin, and by that to assess their ability to cover electricity power demands and provide water supply under changed conditions, assuming present management strategies; hydropower and abstraction demands. The catchment scale, process-based eco-hydrological model SWIM was set up, calibrated and validated up to the Santarem gauge at the Tagus outlet, with the implementation of a reservoir module. The reservoir module is able to represent three reservoir operation management options, simulate water abstraction and provide rates of generated hydropower. In total, fifteen largest reservoirs in the Tagus River Basin were included in the model, calibrated and validated against observed inflow, stored water and outflow water volumes. The future climate projections were selected from the

  19. Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Tisseuil, C; Vrac, M; Grenouillet, G; Wade, A J; Gevrey, M; Oberdorff, T; Grodwohl, J-B; Lek, S

    2012-05-01

    To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.

  20. Infrastructure improvements for snowmelt runoff assessments of climate change impacts on water supplies in the Rio Grande basin

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    It has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern US water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” focuses on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and s...

  1. A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications...

  2. A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications...

  3. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Health Indicators in Michigan Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse ...

  4. Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

    PubMed

    McMahon, Sean M; Harrison, Sandy P; Armbruster, W Scott; Bartlein, Patrick J; Beale, Colin M; Edwards, Mary E; Kattge, Jens; Midgley, Guy; Morin, Xavier; Prentice, I Colin

    2011-05-01

    Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.

  5. Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Global Hurricane-Induced Damages

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanuel, K.; Mendelsohn, R.; Bakkensen, L.; Chonabayashi, S.

    2011-12-01

    We couple a synthetic hurricane generator to a damage model to estimate non-precipitation-related global damages from tropical cyclones in the current climate and in the climate of the late 21st Century as simulated by four global climate models under the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. We also estimate the effects of changing coastal population and income on damage. We project that the rate of tropical cyclone damage will double just from increased population and income. Climate change is expected to almost double this future global damage rate. The damage is projected to be concentrated in the United States and China. Caribbean and Pacific islands are projected to suffer the highest annual damage rates per unit of GDP. We show that over 90% of the damage from tropical cyclones is caused by the 10% most destructive storms.

  6. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Health Indicators in Michigan Watersheds

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse ...

  7. Assessing the Impacts of Local Knowledge and Technology on Climate Change Vulnerability in Remote Communities

    PubMed Central

    Bone, Christopher; Alessa, Lilian; Altaweel, Mark; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The introduction of new technologies into small remote communities can alter how individuals acquire knowledge about their surrounding environment. This is especially true when technologies that satisfy basic needs, such as freshwater use, create a distance (i.e., diminishing exposure) between individuals and their environment. However, such distancing can potentially be countered by the transfer of local knowledge between community members and from one generation to the next. The objective of this study is to simulate by way of agent-based modeling the tensions between technology-induced distancing and local knowledge that are exerted on community vulnerability to climate change. A model is developed that simulates how a collection of individual perceptions about changes to climatic-related variables manifest into community perceptions, how perceptions are influenced by the movement away from traditional resource use, and how the transmission of knowledge mitigates the potentially adverse effects of technology-induced distancing. The model is implemented utilizing climate and social data for two remote communities located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska. The agent-based model simulates a set of scenarios that depict different ways in which these communities may potentially engage with their natural resources, utilize knowledge transfer, and develop perceptions of how the local climate is different from previous years. A loosely-coupled pan-arctic climate model simulates changes monthly changes to climatic variables. The discrepancy between the perceptions derived from the agent-based model and the projections simulated by the climate model represent community vulnerability. The results demonstrate how demographics, the communication of knowledge and the types of ‘knowledge-providers’ influence community perception about changes to their local climate. PMID:21556176

  8. Assessing the impacts of local knowledge and technology on climate change vulnerability in remote communities.

    PubMed

    Bone, Christopher; Alessa, Lilian; Altaweel, Mark; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard

    2011-03-01

    The introduction of new technologies into small remote communities can alter how individuals acquire knowledge about their surrounding environment. This is especially true when technologies that satisfy basic needs, such as freshwater use, create a distance (i.e., diminishing exposure) between individuals and their environment. However, such distancing can potentially be countered by the transfer of local knowledge between community members and from one generation to the next. The objective of this study is to simulate by way of agent-based modeling the tensions between technology-induced distancing and local knowledge that are exerted on community vulnerability to climate change. A model is developed that simulates how a collection of individual perceptions about changes to climatic-related variables manifest into community perceptions, how perceptions are influenced by the movement away from traditional resource use, and how the transmission of knowledge mitigates the potentially adverse effects of technology-induced distancing. The model is implemented utilizing climate and social data for two remote communities located on the Seward Peninsula in western Alaska. The agent-based model simulates a set of scenarios that depict different ways in which these communities may potentially engage with their natural resources, utilize knowledge transfer, and develop perceptions of how the local climate is different from previous years. A loosely-coupled pan-arctic climate model simulates changes monthly changes to climatic variables. The discrepancy between the perceptions derived from the agent-based model and the projections simulated by the climate model represent community vulnerability. The results demonstrate how demographics, the communication of knowledge and the types of 'knowledge-providers' influence community perception about changes to their local climate.

  9. Rain floods regime in the Amur Basin under climate changes impact: assessing by dynamic-stochastic modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gartsmsn, Boris; Lupakov, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    A number of extraordinarily rare hydrological events, occurred in the Amur Basin over the past 20 years, support the reality of runoff regime alteration along evident climate changes. The most suitable tools to study the hydrological consequences of climate changes impact is the dynamic-stochastic modeling. For assessment of climate changes impact we used prediction scheme with basin-indicators, the core of that is regional rainfall-runoff model (Flood Cycle Model, FCM). Indicators are the small basins, which were used to calibration and parameterization of FCM. Input data is daily total precipitation. Output is calculated hydrograph as sequence of daily hydrographs. The climate scenarios used are very simple: just increasing sum of precipitation for 10 and 20%. Only 2 statistical moments (norm and variation coefficient) and only for 2 hydrological parameters (maximal discharges of rain floods Qmax and seasonal total runoff during Jun-Sept WVI-IX) were estimated with the model runs Two test-bed basins were selected (every of which includes few small catchments) for experiments - Ussuri river near Kirovsky, 24400 km2, and Bureya river near Malinovka, 67400 km2. First stage of work includes the simulation experiments with real precipitation from nearest meteo-station. Thereby we got model frequency curves of for each small basins, that seems in good accordance with observed ones, lying inside of their confidential intervals and reproduce individual features of different basins. Next stage was trying the climate scenarios. Two approaches were used to increase precipitation. One (analog) was to attract the precipitation data from others meteo-stations, located in much rainy conditions, second one was just to multiply the precipitation by coefficient. It was found, that results with analog scenarios are very different, but in average is very similar to just increasing the precipitation for 20%. So at last we used only real precipitation, increased by 10 and 20%. Finally

  10. Assessing Uncertainties for Water Manager's Planning: Understanding the Impacts of Policy and Climate Change for Informed Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escobar, V. M.; Sampson, D. A.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing future water supplies requires untangling policy and recasting issues in a way that acknowledges the inherent uncertainties of climate and population growth predictions, while offering meaningful metrics for outcomes under alternative scenarios. Vulnerability to water shortages in the Phoenix Active Management Area (AMA) of Arizona varies by location, demand and available supply, creating a unique challenge to facilitating sustainable decisions by water providers. The Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University has an updated provider-level water planning and management model termed WaterSim 4.01, which incorporates groundwater availability (MODFLOW) and calculates demands as influenced by population, demographics, and climatic uncertainty for 33 water providers in the Phoenix AMA2. Results of uncertainty are portrayed as groundwater drawdown as a function of climate change, population growth, and policy. Climate scenarios are run on a yearly time-step to calculate the groundwater required to satisfy provider demands. Outputs across water provider areas serve as the inputs to the Arizona Groundwater Model (SRV83-06). We present two water provider portfolios (Tempe and Sun City) as an example of the heterogeneity of water supplies and groundwater availability between 2006 and 2030. Tempe’s portfolio consists of surface water (Colorado River water and Salt/Verde River water) and groundwater, resulting in only 17% of physically available groundwater used by 2030, leaving over 82% for future use. Sun City’s portfolio consists primarily of Colorado River water, therefore during shortages on the Colorado River, Sun City is forced to use over 63% of physically available groundwater by 2030. The biggest impacts on Phoenix AMA’s water management may result less from changing climate itself than from water policies devised over the course of time. A scenario such as this demonstrates the regional uncertainty each provider may experience

  11. Developing a Framework for Assessing Climate-Change Impacts on Common Loon Habitat Suitability in Northern Wisconsin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, J. F.; Hunt, R. J.; Kenow, K. P.; Meyer, M. W.; Hay, L. E.

    2008-12-01

    A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey's Trout Lake Water, Energy and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate. The coupled ground-water/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing ground-water flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in Northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive glacial outwash sand aquifer. In this area, stream flow is dominated by ground-water contributions; however, surface runoff does occur during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt, and locally in near-stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. Model calibration was performed using the PEST automated parameter estimation suite of software and the time-series processing utility. PEST was also used to provide estimates of uncertainty associated with the model predictions. The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response of the study lakes to a variety of climate-change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the hydrologic budgets of the selected study lakes. A framework of models is being constructed to assess the impact of climate change on loon nesting. Previous research indicates several physical attributes of lakes, including water chemistry and clarity, are associated with breeding territory selection by Wisconsin common loons. Results from the hydrologic simulations, along with particle tracking within the ground-water portion of the flow model, will be used to develop predictions of solutes into the selected lakes. Estimates of solute concentrations within the ground- water system will be based on relating flow-path residence time to

  12. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quattrochi, D. A.; Crosson, W. L.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Estes, M. G., Jr.

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a ';heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air

  13. Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Crosson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.

    2013-01-01

    In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices

  14. Sustainability Impact Assessment of two forest-based bioenergy production systems related to mitigation and adaption to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gartzia-Bengoetxea, Nahia; Arias-González, Ander; Tuomasjukka, Diana

    2016-04-01

    New forest management strategies are necessary to resist and adapt to Climate Change (CC) and to maintain ecosystem functions such as forest productivity, water storage and biomass production. The increased use of forest-based biomass for energy generation as well as the application of combustion or pyrolysis co-products such as ash or biochar back into forest soils is being suggested as a CC mitigation and adaptation strategy while trying to fulfil the targets of both: (i) Europe 2020 growth strategy in relation to CC and energy sustainability and (ii) EU Action Plan for the Circular Economy. The energy stored in harvested biomass can be released through combustion and used for energy generation to enable national energy security (reduced oil dependence) and the substitution of fossil fuel by renewable biomass can decrease the emission of greenhouse gases.In the end, the wood-ash produced in the process can return to the forest soil to replace the nutrients exported by harvesting. Another way to use biomass in this green circular framework is to pyrolyse it. Pyrolysis of the biomass produce a carbon-rich product (biochar) that can increase carbon sequestration in the soils and liquid and gas co-products of biomass pyrolysis can be used for energy generation or other fuel use thereby offsetting fossil fuel consumption and so avoiding greenhouse gas emissions. Both biomass based energy systems differ in the amount of energy produced, in the co-product (biochar or wood ash) returned to the field, and in societal impacts they have. The Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) was used for modelling both energy production systems. ToSIA integrates several different methods, and allows a quantification and objective comparison of economic, environmental and social impacts in a sustainability impact assessment for different decision alternatives/scenarios. We will interpret the results in order to support the bioenergy planning in temperate forests under the

  15. Assessment of climate change and its impact on forest stream flow using wavelet analysis

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to asse...

  16. "CITY 2020+": assessing climate change impacts for the city of Aachen related to demographic change and health - a progress report

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, C.; Balzer, C.; Buttstädt, M.; Eßer, K.; Ginski, S.; Hahmann, J.; Ketzler, G.; Kle