Time series of Essential Climate Variables from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werscheck, M.

2010-09-01

Climate change is a fact. We need to know how the climate system will develop in future and how this will affect workaday life. To do this we need climate models for prediction of the future on all time scales, and models to assess the impact of the prediction results to the various sectors of social and economic life. With this knowledge we can take measures to mitigate the causes and adapt to changes. Prerequisite for this is a careful and thorough monitoring of the climate systems. Satellite data are an increasing & valuable source of information to observe the climate system. For many decades now satellite data are available to derive information about our planet earth. EUMETSAT is the European Organisation in charge of the exploitation of satellite data for meteorology and (since the year 2000) climatology. Within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility (SAF) Network, comprising 8 initiatives to derive geophysical parameters from satellite, the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is especially dedicated to provide climate relevant information from satellite data. Many products as e.g. water vapour, radiation at surface and top of atmosphere, cloud properties are available, some of these for more then 2 decades. Just recently the European Space Agency (ESA) launched the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) to derive Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) from satellite data, including e.g. cloud properties, aerosol, ozone, sea surface temperature etc.. The presentation will give an overview on some relevant European activities to derive Essential Climate Variables from satellite data and the links to Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) as well as the Sustained Co-ordinated Processing of Environmental Satellite Data for Climate Monitoring (SCOPE CM).

Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

2014-12-01

The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which provides a data driven approach to further develop and improve the National Climate Indicators System.

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

A platform to integrate climate information and rural telemedicine in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowe, R.; Chadza, T.; Chirombo, J.; Fonda, C.; Muyepa, A.; Nkoloma, M.; Pietrosemoli, E.; Radicella, S. M.; Tompkins, A. M.; Zennaro, M.

2012-04-01

It is commonly accepted that climate plays a role in the transmission of many infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by mosquitoes such as malaria, which is one of the most important causes of mortality and morbidity in developing countries. Due to time lags involved in the climate-disease transmission system, lagged observed climate variables could provide some predictive lead for forecasting disease epidemics. This lead time could be extended by using forecasts of the climate in disease prediction models. This project aims to implement a platform for the dissemination of climate-driven disease risk forecasts, using a telemedicine approach. A pilot project has been established in Malawi, where a 162 km wireless link has been installed, spanning from Blantyre City to remote health facilities in the district of Mangochi in the Southern region, bordering Lake Malawi. This long Wi-Fi technology allows rural health facilities to upload real-time disease cases as they occur to an online health information system (DHIS2); a national medical database repository administered by the Ministry of Health. This technology provides a real-time data logging system for disease incidence monitoring and facilitates the flow of information between local and national levels. This platform allows statistical and dynamical disease prediction models to be rapidly updated with real-time climate and epidemiological information. This permits health authorities to target timely interventions ahead of an imminent increase in malaria incidence. By integrating meteorological and health information systems in a statistical-dynamical prediction model, we show that a long-distance Wi-Fi link is a practical and inexpensive means to enable the rapid analysis of real-time information in order to target disease prevention and control measures and mobilise resources at the local level.

Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system

Treesearch

Linda S. Heath; Sarah M. Anderson; Marla R. Emery; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Jeremy Littell; Alan Lucier; Jeffrey G. Masek; David L. Peterson; Richard Pouyat; Kevin M. Potter; Guy Robertson; Jinelle Sperry; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Sarah Jovan; Miranda H. Mockrin; Robert Musselman; Bethany K. Schulz; Robert J. Smith; Susan I. Stewart

2015-01-01

The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) process for the United States focused in part on developing a system of indicators to communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform decisionmakers and the public. Initially, 13 active teams were formed to recommend indicators in a range of categories, including...

Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation. Passing this course raises awareness of the general public, as well as prepares the user for subsequent registration in the system and work with its tools in conducting independent research. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

Building hydrologic information systems to promote climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay higlands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate adaptation requires information about climate and land-surface conditions – spatially distributed, and at scales of human influence (the field scale). This article describes a project aimed at combining meteorological data, satellite remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and downscaled clima...

Data Integration Plans for the NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutledge, G. K.; Williams, D. N.; Deluca, C.; Hankin, S. C.; Compo, G. P.

2010-12-01

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and its collaborators have initiated a five-year development and implementation of an operational access capability for the next generation weather and climate model datasets. The NOAA National Climate Model Portal (NCMP) is being designed using format neutral open web based standards and tools where users at all levels of expertise can gain access and understanding to many of NOAA’s climate and weather model products. NCMP will closely coordinate with and reside under the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP). To carry out its mission, NOAA must be able to successfully integrate model output and other data and information from all of its discipline specific areas to understand and address the complexity of many environmental problems. The NCMP will be an initial access point for the emerging NOAA Climate Services Portal (NCSP), which is the basis for unified access to NOAA climate products and services. NCMP is currently collaborating with the emerging Environmental Projection Center (EPC) expected to be developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder CO. Specifically, NCMP is being designed to: - Enable policy makers and resource managers to make informed national and global policy decisions using integrated climate and weather model outputs, observations, information, products, and other services for the scientist and the non-scientist; - Identify model to observational interoperability requirements for climate and weather system analysis and diagnostics; - Promote the coordination of an international reanalysis observational clearinghouse (i.e.., Reanalysis.org) spanning the worlds numerical processing Center’s for an “Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System”. NCMP will initially provide access capabilities to 3 of NOAA’s high volume Reanalysis data sets of the weather and climate systems: 1) NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFS-R); 2) NOAA’s Climate Diagnostics Center/ Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project data set (20CR, G. Compo, et al.), a historical reanalysis that will provide climate information dating back to 1850 to the present; and 3) the CPC’s Upper Air Reanlaysis. NCMP will advance the highly successful NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS, Rutledge, BAMS 2006), and standards already in use including Unidata’s THREDDS (TDS), PMEL’s Live Access Server (LAS) and the GrADS Data Server (GDS) from COLA; the Department of Energy (DOE) Earth System Grid (ESG) and the associated IPCC Climate model archive located at the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Inter-comparison (PCMDI) through the ESG; and NOAA’s Unified Access Framework (UAF) effort; and core standards developed by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The format neutral OPeNDAP protocol as used in the NOMADS system will also be a key aspect of the design of NCMP.

Urban Climate Map System for Dutch spatial planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Chao; Spit, Tejo; Lenzholzer, Sanda; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Heusinkveld, Bert; van Hove, Bert; Chen, Liang; Kupski, Sebastian; Burghardt, René; Katzschner, Lutz

2012-08-01

Facing climate change and global warming, outdoor climatic environment is an important consideration factor for planners and policy makers because improving it can greatly contribute to achieve citizen's thermal comfort and create a better urban living quality for adaptation. Thus, the climatic information must be assessed systematically and applied strategically into the planning process. This paper presents a tool named Urban Climate Map System (UCMS) that has proven capable of helping compact cities to incorporate climate effects in planning processes in a systematic way. UCMS is developed and presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform in which the lessons learned and experience gained from interdisciplinary studies can be included. The methodology of UCMS of compact cities, the construction procedure, and the basic input factors - including the natural climate resources and planning data - are described. Some literatures that shed light on the applicability of UMCS are reported. The Municipality of Arnhem is one of Dutch compact urban areas and still under fast urban development and urban renewal. There is an urgent need for local planners and policy makers to protect local climate and open landscape resources and make climate change adaptation in urban construction. Thus, Arnhem is chosen to carry out a case study of UCMS. Although it is the first work of Urban Climatic Mapping in The Netherlands, it serves as a useful climatic information platform to local planners and policy makers for their daily on-going works. We attempt to use a quick method to collect available climatic and planning data and create an information platform for planning use. It relies mostly on literature and theoretical understanding that has been well practiced elsewhere. The effort here is to synergize the established understanding for a case at hand and demonstrate how useful guidance can still be made for planners and policy makers.

Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

2016-06-01

The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group

2012-04-01

Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online-searchable database that allows users to see what climate services activities are underway in what locations, to gather and analyze information. As part of the knowledge capture system, more than 10 CSP members are currently developing case studies to describe specific climate services activities; in a few cases, this involves in-depth evaluations of the service in question. Finally, the Economics Working Group of the Climate Services Partnership is analyzing previous methods to economically value climate services in hopes of generating knew knowledge regarding the methods are best suited to assessing the benefits associated with various climate services. Other groups are working to develop guidance materials for the development and use of climate information to support decision and policy-making. The Climate Services Partnership is an open, informal network that builds on activities that are already underway and works to create synergies to improve the provision and development for climate services. Its members currently number more than 50 organizations; it seeks new participants and new initiatives.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Assessing the vulnerability of economic sectors to climate variability to improve the usability of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts in Europe - a preliminary concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, Daniel

2015-04-01

Climate variability poses major challenges for decision-makers in climate-sensitive sectors. Seasonal to decadal (S2D) forecasts provide potential value for management decisions especially in the context of climate change where information from present or past climatology loses significance. However, usable and decision-relevant tailored climate forecasts are still sparse for Europe and successful examples of application require elaborate and individual producer-user interaction. The assessment of sector-specific vulnerabilities to critical climate conditions at specific temporal scale will be a great step forward to increase the usability and efficiency of climate forecasts. A concept for a sector-specific vulnerability assessment (VA) to climate variability is presented. The focus of this VA is on the provision of usable vulnerability information which can be directly incorporated in decision-making processes. This is done by developing sector-specific climate-impact-decision-pathways and the identification of their specific time frames using data from both bottom-up and top-down approaches. The structure of common VA's for climate change related issues is adopted which envisages the determination of exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity. However, the application of the common vulnerability components within the context of climate service application poses some fundamental considerations: Exposure - the effect of climate events on the system of concern may be modified and delayed due to interconnected systems (e.g. catchment). The critical time-frame of a climate event or event sequence is dependent on system-internal thresholds and initial conditions. But also on decision-making processes which require specific lead times of climate information to initiate respective coping measures. Sensitivity - in organizational systems climate may pose only one of many factors relevant for decision making. The scope of "sensitivity" in this concept comprises both the potential physical response of the system of concern as well as the criticality of climate-related decision-making processes. Coping capacity - in an operational context coping capacity can only reduce vulnerability if it can be applied purposeful. With respect to climate vulnerabilities this refers to the availability of suitable, usable and skillful climate information. The focus for this concept is on existing S2D climate service products and their match with user needs. The outputs of the VA are climate-impact-decision-pathways which characterize critical climate conditions, estimate the role of climate in decision-making processes and evaluate the availability and potential usability of S2D climate forecast products. A classification scheme is developed for each component of the impact-pathway to assess its specific significance. The systemic character of these schemes enables a broad application of this VA across sectors where quantitative data is limited. This concept is developed and will be tested within the context of the EU-FP7 project "European Provision Of Regional Impacts Assessments on Seasonal and Decadal Timescales" EUPORIAS.

National Climate Program: Early achievements and future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

Activities of the National Climate Program since 1978 are reviewed, and outlines new directions which should be emphasized over the next five years or so. These are discussed under the subentities of climate system research; climate impacts; and climatic data, information, and services.

Teaching Climate Social Science and Its Practices: A Two-Pronged Approach to Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shwom, R.; Isenhour, C.; McCright, A.; Robinson, J.; Jordan, R.

2014-12-01

The Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy states that a climate-literate individual can: "understand the essential principles of Earth's climate system, assess scientifically credible information about climate change, communicate about climate and climate change in a meaningful way, and make informed and responsible decisions with regard to actions that may affect climate." We argue that further integration of the social science dimensions of climate change will advance the climate literacy goals of communication and responsible actions. The underlying rationale for this argues: 1) teaching the habits of mind and scientific practices that have synergies across the social and natural sciences can strengthen students ability to understand and assess science in general and that 2) understanding the empirical research on the social, political, and economic processes (including climate science itself) that are part of the climate system is an important step for enabling effective action and communication. For example, while climate literacy has often identified the public's faulty mental models of climate processes as a partial explanation of complacency, emerging research suggests that the public's mental models of the social world are equally or more important in leading to informed and responsible climate decisions. Building student's ability to think across the social and natural sciences by understanding "how we know what we know" through the sciences and a scientific understanding of the social world allows us to achieve climate literacy goals more systematically and completely. To enable this integration we first identify the robust social science insights for the climate science literacy principles that involve social systems. We then briefly identify significant social science contributions to climate science literacy that do not clearly fit within the seven climate literacy principles but arguably could advance climate literacy goals. We conclude with suggestions on how the identified social science insights could be integrated into climate literacy efforts.

Towards the construction of a Drought Early Warning System in México

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neri, C.; Magaña, V. O.

2011-12-01

Droughts in Mexico are related to severe impacts in agricultural and livestock activities, water management and with the occurrence of wildfire. Droughts are recurrent, on time scales from years to decades. The impacts however, depend on the vulnerability. The negative impacts may be reduced by studying and monitoring the dynamical evolution of meteorological drought, and by identifying the factors that result in vulnerability, in the context of risk management. Considering the analysis of the vulnerability in the northern of Mexico, a semiarid region highly vulnerable to drought, a Drought Early Warning System was created based on the use of climate information. The first step was to identify the capacity to provide useful climate information to develop prevention actions. Results confirm that the drought in northern Mexico is a well-diagnosed phenomenon from the point of view of impacts in various sectors. However, the use of climate information is still very limited resulting in response to mitigate drought impacts rather than preparing for drought. Part of the problem is the limited capacity to interpret probabilistic forecasts to define actions. Therefore, a key element in a Drought Early Warning System is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using climate diagnosis and forecast. A preventive response to drought may be defined if the severity and duration surpass a threshold value after which a decision action should be made. In order to establish the relevance of indicators for drought risk management, retroactive analyses have been developed considering the case of northwestern Mexico. After a vulnerability analysis that considers the institutional capacity to make use of climate information, a Drought Early warning System has been designed that considers a number of actions that may be put forward in order to reduce the impacts of such climatic hazard. The potential impact of such system is examined considering a number of actions that may be implemented in the water, agricultural and cattle ranching sectors. We conclude that there are great opportunities to reduce the negative impacts of drought if climate information is used.

Formal Provenance Representation of the Data and Information Supporting the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt

2014-01-01

The Global Change Information System (GCIS) provides a framework for the formal representation of structured metadata about data and information about global change. The pilot deployment of the system supports the National Climate Assessment (NCA), a major report of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). A consumer of that report can use the system to browse and explore that supporting information. Additionally, capturing that information into a structured data model and presenting it in standard formats through well defined open inter- faces, including query interfaces suitable for data mining and linking with other databases, the information becomes valuable for other analytic uses as well.

Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2016-12-01

There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation to specific regional or hemispheric outcomes that inform terrestrial water and energy (wind as well as hydropower) futures. The focus will be on how one can frame the mathematical problem of robustly estimating relevant conditional distributions and their uncertainty, to inform risk management applications in these sectors.

A Statistical-Dynamical Approach to Intraseasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

state of the climate system...information about the current or forecasted state of the climate system. Collocated with FNMOD, is the Air Force’s 14th Weather Squadron (14WS; formerly...relationships between the LSEFs and TC formations can be skillful regardless of the oscillatory state of the climate system. D.

Building Climate Resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: A Role for Earth System Sciences

PubMed Central

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Simane, Belay; Habib, Shahid; Anderson, Martha C.; Ozdogan, Mutlu; Foltz, Jeremy D.

2012-01-01

The Blue Nile (Abay) Highlands of Ethiopia are characterized by significant interannual climate variability, complex topography and associated local climate contrasts, erosive rains and erodible soils, and intense land pressure due to an increasing population and an economy that is almost entirely dependent on smallholder, low-input agriculture. As a result, these highland zones are highly vulnerable to negative impacts of climate variability. As patterns of variability and precipitation intensity alter under anthropogenic climate change, there is concern that this vulnerability will increase, threatening economic development and food security in the region. In order to overcome these challenges and to enhance sustainable development in the context of climate change, it is necessary to establish climate resilient development strategies that are informed by best-available Earth System Science (ESS) information. This requirement is complicated by the fact that climate projections for the Abay Highlands contain significant and perhaps irreducible uncertainties. A critical challenge for ESS, then, is to generate and to communicate meaningful information for climate resilient development in the context of a highly uncertain climate forecast. Here we report on a framework for applying ESS to climate resilient development in the Abay Highlands, with a focus on the challenge of reducing land degradation. PMID:22470302

Bottom-up perspectives of extreme event and climate change threats to water quality: Drinking water utilities in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekstrom, J.; Klasic, M.; Fencl, A.; Lubell, M.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, E.

2016-12-01

Extreme events impact water quality, which pose serious challenges for drinking water systems. Such extreme events, including wildfire, storm surge, and other weather-related extremes, are projected to increase under a changing climate. It remains unclear what climate change information can support water managers in preparing for more extreme events. Exploring this topic requires understanding the larger question: What is the role of scientific information in adapting to climate change? We present two parts of a three-year study geared to understand whether, where, why and in what way climate information (or the lack of) is used or needed to support long term water quality planning for extreme events. In 2015 we surveyed California drinking water utilities and found a wide range of extreme event/water quality issues, perspectives on the severity of climate change threats, drought impacts and trusted information sources relating to water quality concerns. Approximately 70% of 259 respondents had recently experienced extreme weather-related events that worsen or trigger water quality. Survey results informed development of a case study analysis to gain a more in-depth understanding of what type of - or when - extreme events information could support climate adaptation. Projections of extreme events are often not in a form that is useable for water quality planning. Relative to supply-related projections, water quality has received much less scientific attention, leaving it an assumed scientific information gap and need for management. The question remains whether filling this gap would help adaptation, whom it would help, and in what way. Based on interviews with water systems in Summer 2016, our case study analyses reinforce that extreme events threaten water quality in many ways; largely as secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts involve disinfection byproducts, increasing salinity in the Delta, and the use of lower quality sources. The most common barriers impeding effective adaptation were not related to information. Instead, respondents frequently expressed the obstacles of external institutions not coordinating with their needs. This demonstrates why climate adaptation must simultaneously occur at multiple levels of governance in order for water systems to successfully advance.

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Development of an interactive interface to raise awareness of public, policy makers, and practitioners about natural hazards.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander

2017-04-01

Due to a global climate change the following consequences are predicted: rise in sea level due to melting glaciers and polar ice, changes in precipitation, changes in the hydrological regime, impact on ecosystems, agriculture and forestry. In Russia's vast territory these effects will be most dramatic. According to Hydrometeorological Center of Russian Federation report there is an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events, as well as in their damage to ecosystems and infrastructure. In the framework of adaptation to climate change and mitigation of its consequences it is necessary to promote and support activities aimed at reducing possible risks. Adaptation methods include among others improving seasonal weather forecasts, systems of early warning and systems of management of risks. But there is a problem of insufficient awareness among decision-makers, as well a lack of scientific background. Those responsible for making decisions, stakeholders and the public do not have the skills and knowledge to work with the accumulated climate data to development an adaptation and sustainable development strategy. The goal is to provide these groups with tools, skills, thematic information for understanding climate processes occurring in the region. We believe that the preparation of both the persons responsible for decision-making, and the future specialist in environmental sciences shouldn't be realized artificial learning environment, but on the basis of actual operating computational and information systems used in climate research. Such kind of a system was developed by a team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS. The information-computational Web GIS "Climate" (http://climate.climate.scert.ru) provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. "Climate" allows climatologists, specialists in related fields, decision-makers, stakeholders and the public use a variety of geographically distributed spatially-referenced data, resources and processing services via a web-browser. Currently, an interactive System User Manual for decision-makers is developed. It contains not only the information needed to use the system and perform practical tasks, but also the basic concepts explained in detail. The knowledge necessary for understanding the causes and possible consequences of the processes is given. The results of implementation of practical tasks are available not only in the form of color surface maps, but also on the Internet and in the form of layers for most GIS. Thus these layers can be used in usual desktop GIS which is a common software for most of decision-makers. Thus, this manual helps to prepare qualified users, which in the future will be able to determine the policy of the region to adapt to climate change impacts and hazards. The work is supported by Russian Science Foundation grant № 16-19-10257.

Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

2013-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial scales that are the most relevant for their intended use. National decision-makers may find indicators of national greenhouse gas emissions to be informative; however, state or local decision-makers have the freedom in this framework to define indicators of state, regional, or local greenhouse emissions that are more relevant to their concerns. The framework is also independent of time scale and topics within the broad categories. It therefore allows indicators of different sectors to be developed, and allows the consideration of both indicators of current state, past trends, and leading indicators. In this talk we will discuss the general conceptual model for the system, the sector specific conceptual models, and indicators that will be included in the prototype end-to-end indicator system.

Developing services for climate impact and adaptation baseline information and methodologies for the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, C.

2012-04-01

Impacts of climate change are observed and projected across a range of ecosystems and economic sectors, and mountain regions thereby rank among the hotspots of climate change. The Andes are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, not only due to fragile ecosystems but also due to the high vulnerability of the population. Natural resources such as water systems play a critical role and are observed and projected to be seriously affected. Adaptation to climate change impacts is therefore crucial to contain the negative effects on the population. Adaptation projects require information on the climate and affected socio-environmental systems. There is, however, generally a lack of methodological guidelines how to generate the necessary scientific information and how to communicate to implementing governmental and non-governmental institutions. This is particularly important in view of the international funds for adaptation such as the Green Climate Fund established and set into process at the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties in Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011. To facilitate this process international and regional organizations (World Bank and Andean Community) and a consortium of research institutions have joined forces to develop and define comprehensive methodologies for baseline and climate change impact assessments for the Andes, with an application potential to other mountain regions (AndesPlus project). Considered are the climatological baseline of a region, and the assessment of trends based on ground meteorological stations, reanalysis data, and satellite information. A challenge is the scarcity of climate information in the Andes, and the complex climatology of the mountain terrain. A climate data platform has been developed for the southern Peruvian Andes and is a key element for climate data service and exchange. Water resources are among the key livelihood components for the Andean population, and local and national economy, in particular for agriculture and hydropower. The retreat of glaciers as one of the clearest signal of climate change represents a problem for water supply during the long dry season. Hydrological modeling, using data from the few gauging stations and complemented by satellite precipitation data, is needed to generate baseline and climate impact information. Food security is often considered threatened due to climate change impacts, in the Andes for instance by droughts and cold spells that seriously affect high-elevation food systems. Eventually, methodologies are compiled and developed for analyzing risks from natural hazards and disasters. The vulnerabilities and risks for all types of climate impacts need to be reflected by analyzing the local and regional social, cultural, political and economic context. To provide the necessary references and information the project AndesPlus has developed a web-based knowledge and information platform. The highly interdisciplinary process of the project should contribute to climate impact and adaptation information services, needed to meet the challenges of adaptation.

Improving Hospital Quality and Patient Safety an Examination of Organizational Culture and Information Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gardner, John Wallace

2012-01-01

This dissertation examines the effects of safety culture, including operational climate and practices, as well as the adoption and use of information systems for delivering high quality healthcare and improved patient experience. Chapter 2 studies the influence of both general and outcome-specific hospital climate and quality practices on process…

Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

2014-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such as the Global Framework for Climate Services and the Pilot Program on Climate Resilience.

Improving Undergraduate Climate Change Literacy through Writing: A Pilot Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Small Griswold, Jennifer D.

2017-01-01

A climate-literate population, capable of making informed decisions related to climate change, is of critical importance as society faces ever-increasing global temperatures and changes in the climate system. This project evaluates the effectiveness of a novel instructional approach that incorporates climate change science into a first-year…

The Influence of Ideological Filters upon Education about Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutherford, D.

2011-12-01

Religious and political ideologies serve as primary lenses through which people interpret information and education related to the climate system, climate change, and climate impacts upon human and environmental systems. Consequently, ideologies strongly affect (1) the levels of receptivity that people express toward communication messages and educational efforts related to climate topics, and (2) the amount of knowledge and understanding that people obtain from those messages and efforts. This paper begins with a brief overview of research that establishes a theoretical framework for understanding the role of ideology in communication and educational efforts. It then describes the ideological filtering of climate and environmental information that occurs in a substantial and powerful public in American society - the socially conservative, evangelical Christian population. Approaches are then offered for navigating the ideological filters of this specific population in order to improve understanding of climate related topics. More general principles also emerge that can apply across other populations

Translating Research into Practice: Establishing a Network of Climate Change Practitioners in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, G. A.

2017-12-01

Climate research and information continues to emerge at a rapid pace from the academic and scientific community. Decisions being made today by planners, engineers and staff across the Province of Ontario rely on science and information to plan and build our systems for the long term. Of course, as scientific information evolves continuously to produce lessons learned and new evidence, on the ground decisions often become entrenched in outdated information and need updating. Given this, bridging the gap between research to policy, and research to practice is of critical importance as the Province of Ontario upgrades its infrastructure, plans for long term growth in population within the Great Lakes Basin, and manages its natural systems and resources responsibly. The Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) is an interdisciplinary network of academics and practitioners established in 2011 in the province that works to mobilize climate research findings towards building capacity, inspiring climate action, and training end-users with the latest science. The OCC has collaborated with more than 39 organizations throughout Ontario and across Canada, including government agencies at all levels (local, provincial and federal), non-profit organizations and private sector companies. This presentation will describe the foundations of climate action in Ontario, Canada including the landscape of climate adaptation practitioners from both public and private organizations. Furthermore, this presentation will feature lessons learned from the OCC network, including: 1) What comprises effective partnerships to undertake climate change adaptation planning for cities; 2) How to build the foundation for capacity at agencies with limited resources or expertise in the climate change field; and 3) How to successfully mobilize complex climate data for end-users to produce usable tools (through a case study research project). The latter will present findings from a two-year research project undertaken with OCC and the City of Vaughan, just northwest of Toronto, which examined vulnerability and risks of climate change to the city's stormwater infrastructure system and produced key tools and information for managers to begin building climate resilience into their planning and operations.

Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

2012-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial scales that are the most relevant for their intended use. National decision-makers may find indicators of national greenhouse gas emissions to be informative; however, state or local decision-makers have the freedom in this framework to define indicators of state, regional, or local greenhouse emissions that are more relevant to their concerns. The framework is also independent of time scale and topics within the broad categories. It therefore allows indicators of different sectors to be developed, and allows the consideration of both indicators of current state, past trends, and leading indicators. In this talk we will discuss a number of existing candidate indicators that could be included in this framework as well as the research needed to fully develop an end-to-end indicator system.

Linking Student Achievement and Teacher Science Content Knowledge about Climate Change: Ensuring the Nations 3 Million Teachers Understand the Science through an Electronic Professional Development System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Byers, A.

2009-12-01

The scientific complexities of global climate change, with wide-ranging economic and social significance, create an intellectual challenge that mandates greater public understanding of climate change research and the concurrent ability to make informed decisions. The critical need for an engaged, science literate public has been repeatedly emphasized by multi-disciplinary entities like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academies (Rising Above the Gathering Storm report), and the interagency group responsible for the recently updated Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. There is a clear need for an American public that is climate literate and for K-12 teachers confident in teaching relevant science content. A key goal in the creation of a climate literate society is to enhance teachers’ knowledge of global climate change through a national, scalable, and sustainable professional development system, using compelling climate science data and resources to stimulate inquiry-based student interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This session will explore innovative e-learning technologies to address the limitations of one-time, face-to-face workshops, thereby adding significant sustainability and scalability. The resources developed will help teachers sift through the vast volume of global climate change information and provide research-based, high-quality science content and pedagogical information to help teachers effectively teach their students about the complex issues surrounding global climate change. The Learning Center is NSTA's e-professional development portal to help the nations teachers and informal educators learn about the scientific complexities of global climate change through research-based techniques and is proven to significantly improve teacher science content knowledge.

Pilot climate data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1985-01-01

A usable data base, the Pilot climate Data System (PCDS) is described. The PCDS is designed to be an interactive, easy-to-use, on-line generalized scientific information system. It efficiently provides uniform data catalogs; inventories, and access method, as well as manipulation and display tools for a large assortment of Earth, ocean and atmospheric data for the climate-related research community. Researchers can employ the PCDS to scan, manipulate, compare, display, and study climate parameters from diverse data sets. Software features, and applications of the PCDS are highlighted.

Building climate adaptation capabilities through technology and community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, D.; McWhirter, J.; Intsiful, J. D.; Cozzini, S.

2011-12-01

To effectively plan for adaptation to changes in climate, decision makers require infrastructure and tools that will provide them with timely access to current and future climate information. For example, climate scientists and operational forecasters need to access global and regional model projections and current climate information that they can use to prepare monitoring products and reports and then publish these for the decision makers. Through the UNDP African Adaption Programme, an infrastructure is being built across Africa that will provide multi-tiered access to such information. Web accessible servers running RAMADDA, an open source content management system for geoscience information, will provide access to the information at many levels: from the raw and processed climate model output to real-time climate conditions and predictions to documents and presentation for government officials. Output from regional climate models (e.g. RegCM4) and downscaled global climate models will be accessible through RAMADDA. The Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) is being used by scientists to create visualizations that assist the understanding of climate processes and projections, using the data on these as well as external servers. Since RAMADDA is more than a data server, it is also being used as a publishing platform for the generated material that will be available and searchable by the decision makers. Users can wade through the enormous volumes of information and extract subsets for their region or project of interest. Participants from 20 countries attended workshops at ICTP during 2011. They received training on setting up and installing the servers and necessary software and are now working on deploying the systems in their respective countries. This is the first time an integrated and comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation has been widely applied in Africa. It is expected that this infrastructure will enhance North-South collaboration and improve the delivery of technical support and services. This improved infrastructure will enhance the capacity of countries to provide a wide range of robust products and services in a timely manner.

The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

2012-04-01

The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2015-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

It's Not Just About More Data: Translation of Science and Decision Support Evaluation for Climate Impact Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Global Change Research Program is currently considering establishing a National Climate Indicators System, which would be a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that would communicate key aspects of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions. Thus, over the past several years 150+ scientists and practitioners representing a range of expertise from the climate system to natural systems to human sectors have developed a set of indicator recommendations that could be used as a first step to establishing such an indicator system. These recommendations have been implemented into a pilot system, with the goal of working with stakeholder communities to evaluate the understandability of individual indicators and learn how users are combining indicators for their own understanding or decision needs through this multiple Federal agency decision support platform. This prototype system provides the perfect test bed for evaluating the translation of scientific data - observations, remote sensing, and citizen science data -- and data products, such as indicators, for decision-making audiences. Often translation of scientific information into decision support products is developed and improved given intuition and feedback. Though this can be useful in many cases, more rigorous testing using social science methodologies would provide greater assurance that the data products are useful for the intended audiences. I will present some initial research using surveys to assess the understandability of indicators and whether that understanding is influenced by one's attitude toward climate change. Such information is critical to assess whether products developed for scientists by scientists have been appropriately translated for non-scientists, thus assuring that the data will have some value for the intended audience. Such survey information will provide a data driven approach to further develop and improve the National Climate Indicators System and could be applied to improve other decision support systems.

Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudakov, I.; Vakulenko, S. A.; Golden, K. M.

2015-05-01

Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo - a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a conceptual sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point - an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a bifurcation analysis of the energy balance climate model with ice-albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to bifurcation points.

CEOS SEO and GISS Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Killough, Brian; Stover, Shelley

2008-01-01

The Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) provides a brief to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) regarding the CEOS Systems Engineering Office (SEO) and current work on climate requirements and analysis. A "system framework" is provided for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). SEO climate-related tasks are outlined including the assessment of essential climate variable (ECV) parameters, use of the "systems framework" to determine relevant informational products and science models and the performance of assessments and gap analyses of measurements and missions for each ECV. Climate requirements, including instruments and missions, measurements, knowledge and models, and decision makers, are also outlined. These requirements would establish traceability from instruments to products and services allowing for benefit evaluation of instruments and measurements. Additionally, traceable climate requirements would provide a better understanding of global climate models.

Detecting climate variations and change: New challenges for observing and data management systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karl, T.R.; Quayle, R.G.; Groisman, P.Ya.

1993-08-01

Several essential aspects of weather observing and the management of weather data related to improving knowledge of climate variations and change in the surface boundary layer and the consequences for socioeconomic and biogeophysical systems, are discussed. The issues include long-term homogeneous time series of routine weather observations; time- and space-scale resolution of datasets derived from the observations; information about observing systems, data collection systems, and data reduction algorithms; and the enhancement of weather observing systems to serve as climate observing systems. Although much has been learned from existing weather networks and methods of data management, the system is far frommore » perfect. Several vital areas have not received adequate attention. Particular improvements are needed in the interaction between network designers and climatologists; operational analyses that focus on detecting and documenting outliers and time-dependent biases within datasets; developing the means to cope with and minimize potential inhomogeneities in weather observing systems; and authoritative documentation of how various aspects of climate have or have not changed. In this last area, close attention must be given to time and space resolution of the data. In many instances the time and space resolution requirements for understanding why the climate changes are not synonymous with understanding how it has changed or varied. This is particularly true within the surface boundary layer. A standard global daily/monthly climate message should also be introduced to supplement current Global Telecommunication System's CLIMAT data. Overall, a call is made for improvements in routine weather observing, data management, and analysis systems. Routine observations have provided (and will continue to provide) most of the information regarding how the climate has changed during the last 100 years affecting where we live, work, and grow our food. 58 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.« less

Developing the architecture for the Climate Information Portal for Copernicus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Thijsse, Peter; Plieger, Maarten; Pascoe, Stephen; Jukes, Martin; Leadbetter, Adam; Goosen, Hasse; de Vreede, Ernst

2015-04-01

Climate change is impacting the environment, society and policy decisions. Information about climate change is available from many sources, but not all of them are reliable. The CLIPC project is developing a portal to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. This ambitious objective is made possible through the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme for Europe, which will deliver a new generation of environmental measurements of climate quality. The data about the physical environment which is used to inform climate change policy and adaptation measures comes from several categories: satellite measurements, terrestrial observing systems, model projections and simulations and from re-analyses (syntheses of all available observations constrained with numerical weather prediction systems). These data categories are managed by different communities: CLIPC will provide a single point of access for the whole range of data. Information on data value and limitations will be provided as part of a knowledge base of authoritative climate information. The impacts of climate change on society will generally reflect a range of different environmental and climate system changes, and different sectors and actors within society will react differently to these changes. The CLIPC portal will provide some a number of indicators showing impacts on specific sectors which have been generated using a range of factors selected through structured expert consultation. It will also, as part of the transformation services, allow users to explore the consequences of using different combinations of driving factors which they consider to be of particular relevance to their work or life. The portal will provide information on the scientific quality and pitfalls of such transformations to prevent misleading usage of the results. The CLIPC project will not be able to process a comprehensive range of climate change impacts on the physical environment and society, but will develop an end to end processing chain (indicator toolkit), from comprehensive information on the climate state through to highly aggregated decision relevant products. This processing chain will be demonstrated within three thematic areas: water, rural and urban. Indicators of climate change and climate change impact will be provided, and a toolkit to update and post process the collection of indicators will be integrated into the portal. For the indicators three levels (Tiers) have been loosely defined: Tier 1: field summarising properties of the climate system; e.g. temperature change; Tier 2: expressed in terms of environmental properties outside the climate system; e.g. flooding change; Tier 3: expressed in social and economic impact. For the architecture, CLIPC has two interlocked themes: 1. Harmonised access to climate datasets derived from models, observations and re-analyses 2. A climate impact toolkit to evaluate, rank and aggregate indicators For development of the CLIPC architecture an Agile 'storyline' approach is taken. The storyline is a real world use case and consists of producing a Tier 3 indicator (Urban Heat Vulnerability) and making it available through the CLIPC infrastructure for a user group. In this way architecture concepts can be directly tested and improved. Also, the produced indicator can be shown to users to refine requirements. Main components of the CLIPC architecture are 1) Data discovery and access, 2) Data processing, 3) Data visualization, 4) Knowledge base and 5) User Management. The Data discovery and access component main challenge is to provide harmonized access to various sources of climate data (ngEO, EMODNET/SeaDataNet, ESGF, MyOcean). The discovery service concept will be provided using a CLIPC data and data product catalogue and via a structured data search on selected infrastructures, using NERC vocabulary services and mappings. Data processing will be provided using OGC WPS services, linking/re-using existing processing services from climate4impact.eu. The processing services will allow users to calculate climate impact indicators (Tier 1, 2 and 3). Processing wizards will guide users in processing indicators. The PyWPS framework will be used. The CLIPC portal will have its own central viewing service, using OGC standards for interoperability. For the WMS server side the ADAGUC framework will be used. For Tier 3 visualizations specific tailored visualisations will be developed. Tier 3 can be complicated to build and require manual work from specialists to provide meaningful results before they can be published as e.g. interactive maps. The CLIPC knowledge base is a set of services that supply explanatory information to the users when working with CLIPC services. It is structured around 1) a catalogue, containing ISO standardized metadata, citations, background information, links to data; 2) Commentary information, e.g. FAQ, annotation URLs , version information, disclaimers; 3) Technical documents, e.g. using vocabularies and mappings 4) Glossaries, adding and using existing glossaries from e.g. EUPORIAS/IS-ENES, IPCC; 5) literature references. CLIPC will have a very light weight user management system, providing as little barriers to the user as possible. We will make use of OpenID, accepting from selected OpenID providers such as Google and ESGF. In the presentation we will show the storyline implementation: the first results of the Tier 3 indicator, the architecture in development and the lessons learned.

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Climate change assessments

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2008-01-01

The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

Developing User-Driven Climate Information Services to Build Resilience Amongst Groups at Risk of Drought and Flood in Arid and Semi-Arid Land Counties in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Githungo, W. N.; Shaka, A.; Kniveton, D.; Muithya, L.; Powell, R.; Visman, E. L.

2014-12-01

The Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) counties of Kitui and Makueni in Kenya are experiencing increasing climate variability in seasonal rainfall, including changes in the onset, cessation and distribution of the two principal rains upon which the majority of the population's small-holder farmers and livestock keepers depend. Food insecurity is prevalent with significant numbers also affected by flooding during periods of intense rainfall. As part of a multi-partner Adaptation Consortium, Kenya Meteorological Services (KMS) are developing Climate Information Services (CIS) which can better support decision making amongst the counties' principal livelihoods groups and across County Government ministries. Building on earlier pilots and stakeholder discussion, the system combines the production of climate information tailored for transmission via regional and local radio stations with the establishment of a new SMS service. SMS are provided through a network of CIS intermediaries drawn from across key government ministries, religious networks, non-governmental and community groups, aiming to achieve one SMS recipient per 3-500 people. It also introduces a demand-led, premium-rate SMS weather information service which is designed to be self-financing in the long term. Supporting the ongoing process of devolution, KMS is downscaling national forecasts for each county, and providing seasonal, monthly, weekly and daily forecasts, as well as warnings of weather-related hazards. Through collaboration with relevant ministries, government bodies and research institutions, including livestock, agriculture, drought management and health, technical advisories are developed to provide guidance on application of the climate information. The system seeks to provide timely, relevant information which can enable people to use weather and climate information to support decisions which protect life and property and build resilience to ongoing climate variability and future change.

DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2012-04-01

At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate models and projections, impact and risk parameters and to know what are stakeholder needs related to climate change in a climate service perspective. The preliminary results gained from the workshop showed that DESYCO is an helpful tool for the impact and risk assessment related to climate change that could be improved in order to fulfill stakeholder needs.

Stakeholders' perceptions of social-ecological systems and the information they use in the management of freshwater resources in Guanacaste, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, G.; Babcock, M.; Small, M.; Grossmann, I.

2014-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the chances of drought, and shift precipitation patterns in seasonally dry places. In some places, the heuristics or "rules of thumb" that stakeholders use may no longer be reliable for the effective management of water resources. This can have dire consequences for social and ecological systems, especially in developing countries. Scientists and policymakers view climate forecasts as one way for improving informed decision-making about freshwater resources. However, successful communication requires that stakeholders understand and are able to use such information. To develop effective communications, it is critical to characterize stakeholders' understanding of social-ecological systems as related to water, the type of information used to inform management decisions, and the perceived value of forecast information. To achieve our objective, we conducted 40 semi-structured interviews with farmers, water managers, hydroelectric utilities, local climate experts, tourism industry representatives, and members of the general public in the semi-arid region of Guanacaste, Costa Rica. People believe that they have enough water at this time however they believe that the region will become much drier in the future, which they attribute to climate change, El Nino/La Nina, and deforestation. With respect to the value of forecast information, we found that the scale of decision-making (e.g., irrigation district versus small farmer) was associated with a stakeholders' level of "technical sophistication" and trust in government. In future work, we will evaluate the prevalence of these beliefs and practices in the larger population in order to identify effective ways to tailor the presentation of forecast information for different audiences. This work provides insight into the development of forecast communications to improve the management of resources in development countries in the face of a changing climate.

Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for Sustainable Management of River Oases along the Tarim River, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Othmanli, Hussein; Zhao, Chengyi; Stahr, Karl

2017-04-01

The Tarim River Basin is the largest continental basin in China. The region has extremely continental desert climate characterized by little rainfall <50 mm/a and high potential evaporation >3000 mm/a. The climate change is affecting severely the basin causing soil salinization, water shortage, and regression in crop production. Therefore, a Soil and Land Resources Information System (SLISYS-Tarim) for the regional simulation of crop yield production in the basin was developed. The SLISYS-Tarim consists of a database and an agro-ecological simulation model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). The database comprises relational tables including information about soils, terrain conditions, land use, and climate. The soil data implicate information of 50 soil profiles which were dug, analyzed, described and classified in order to characterize the soils in the region. DEM data were integrated with geological maps to build a digital terrain structure. Remote sensing data of Landsat images were applied for soil mapping, and for land use and land cover classification. An additional database for climate data, land management and crop information were linked to the system, too. Construction of the SLISYS-Tarim database was accomplished by integrating and overlaying the recommended thematic maps within environment of the geographic information system (GIS) to meet the data standard of the global and national SOTER digital database. This database forms appropriate input- and output data for the crop modelling with the EPIC model at various scales in the Tarim Basin. The EPIC model was run for simulating cotton production under a constructed scenario characterizing the current management practices, soil properties and climate conditions. For the EPIC model calibration, some parameters were adjusted so that the modeled cotton yield fits to the measured yield on the filed scale. The validation of the modeling results was achieved in a later step based on remote sensing data. The simulated cotton yield varied according to field management, soil type and salinity level, where soil salinity was the main limiting factor. Furthermore, the calibrated and validated EPIC model was run under several scenarios of climate conditions and land management practices to estimate the effect of climate change on cotton production and sustainability of agriculture systems in the basin. The application of SLISYS-Tarim showed that this database can be a suitable framework for storage and retrieval of soil and terrain data at various scales. The simulation with the EPIC model can assess the impact of climate change and management strategies. Therefore, SLISYS-Tarim can be a good tool for regional planning and serve the decision support system on regional and national scale.

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on amore » grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.« less

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Identifying and Assessing Gaps in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Skill using the North American Multi-model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pegion, K.; DelSole, T. M.; Becker, E.; Cicerone, T.

2016-12-01

Predictability represents the upper limit of prediction skill if we had an infinite member ensemble and a perfect model. It is an intrinsic limit of the climate system associated with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Producing a forecast system that can make predictions very near to this limit is the ultimate goal of forecast system development. Estimates of predictability together with calculations of current prediction skill are often used to define the gaps in our prediction capabilities on subseasonal to seasonal timescales and to inform the scientific issues that must be addressed to build the next forecast system. Quantification of the predictability is also important for providing a scientific basis for relaying to stakeholders what kind of climate information can be provided to inform decision-making and what kind of information is not possible given the intrinsic predictability of the climate system. One challenge with predictability estimates is that different prediction systems can give different estimates of the upper limit of skill. How do we know which estimate of predictability is most representative of the true predictability of the climate system? Previous studies have used the spread-error relationship and the autocorrelation to evaluate the fidelity of the signal and noise estimates. Using a multi-model ensemble prediction system, we can quantify whether these metrics accurately indicate an individual model's ability to properly estimate the signal, noise, and predictability. We use this information to identify the best estimates of predictability for 2-meter temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature from the North American Multi-model Ensemble and compare with current skill to indicate the regions with potential for improving skill.

The Grand Challenges of WCRP and the Climate Observing System of the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, G. P.

2017-12-01

The successful implementation the Paris agreement on climate change (COP21) calls for a well-designed global monitoring system of essential climate variables, climate processes and Earth system budgets. The Grand Challenges implemented by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) provide an opportunity to investigate issues of high societal relevance, directly related to sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability. These challenges would directly benefit from a well-designed suite of systematic climate observations. Quantification of the evolution of the global energy, water and carbon budgets as well as the development and the production of near-term and regional climate predictions require that a comprehensive, focused, multi-platform observing system (satellites, ground-based and in situ observations) be established in an international context. This system must be accompanied by the development of climate services that should translate and disseminate scientific outcomes as actionable information for users and stakeholders.

Climate Fundamentals for Solar Heating.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conservation and Renewable Energy Inquiry and Referral Service (DOE), Silver Spring, MD.

The design of any solar heating system is influenced heavily by climate; in this bulletin, information on climate as related to solar heating is as related to solar heating is provided. Topics discussed include: (1) solar radiation; (2) degree days; (3) climate and calculations which make use of solar radiation and degree days; and (4)…

Climate Services Information System Activities in Support of The Global Framework for Climate Services Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M. C.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Klein-Tank, A.; Kolli, R. K.; Hechler, P.; Dilley, M.; Ceron, J. P.; Goodess, C.

2017-12-01

The WMO Commission on Climatology (CCl) supports the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) with a particular focus on the Climate Services Information System (CSIS), which is the core operational component of GFCS at the global, regional, and national level. CSIS is designed for producing, packaging and operationally delivering authoritative climate information data and products through appropriate operational systems, practices, data exchange, technical standards, authentication, communication, and product delivery. Its functions include climate analysis and monitoring, assessment and attribution, prediction (monthly, seasonal, decadal), and projection (centennial scale) as well as tailoring the associated products tUEAo suit user requirements. A central, enabling piece of implementation of CSIS is a Climate Services Toolkit (CST). In its development phase, CST exists as a prototype (www.wmo.int/cst) as a compilation of tools for generating tailored data and products for decision-making, with a special focus on national requirements in developing countries. WMO provides a server to house the CST prototype as well as support operations and maintenance. WMO members provide technical expertise and other in-kind support, including leadership of the CSIS development team. Several recent WMO events have helped with the deployment of CST within the eight countries that have been recognized by GFCS as illustrative for developing their climate services at national levels. Currently these countries are developing climate services projects focusing service development and delivery for selected economic sectors, such as for health, agriculture, energy, water resources, and hydrometeorological disaster risk reduction. These countries are working together with their respective WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs), which provide technical assistance with implementation of climate services projects at the country level and facilitate development of regional climate products, starting with the CST. The paper will introduce the CST prototype to the wider meteorological, hydrological, and climatological communities and provide details of its implementation in the context of the global framework.

Maintaining resilience in the face of climate change: Chapter 8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camacho, Alejandro E.; Beard, T. Douglas

2014-01-01

Climate change, when combined with more conventional stress from human exploitation, calls into question the capacity of both existing ecological communities and resource management institutions to experience disturbances while substantially retaining their same functions and identities (Zellmer and Gunderson 2009; Ruhl 2011). In other words, the physical and biological effects of climate change raise fundamental challenges to the resilience of natural ecosystems (Gunderson and Holling 2002). Perhaps more importantly, the projected scope of ecological shifts from global climate change-and uncertainty about such changes-significantly stresses the capacity of legal institutions to manage ecosystem change (Camacho 2009). Existing governmental institutions lack the adaptive capacity to manage such substantial changes to ecological and legal systems. In particular, regulators and managers lack information about ecological effects and alternative management strategies for managing the effects of climate change (Karkkainen 2008; Camacho 2009), as well as the institutional infrastructure for obtaining such information (Peters 2008).A number of recent initiatives have been proposed to address the effects of climate change on ecological systems. However, these nascent programs do not fully meet the needs for developing adaptive capacity. A federal, publicly accessible, and system-wide portal and clearinghouse will help regulators at all levels of government manage the effects and uncertainty from climate change (DiMento and Ingram 2005; Farber 2007). Such an information infrastructure, combined with a range of incentives that encourage regulators to engage in adaptive management and programmatic adjustment over time (Baron et al. 2009), will help governmental and private institutions become more resilient and capable of managing the physical and human institutional effects of changing climate (Camacho 2009).

Identifying Decision Support Tools to Bridge Climate and Agricultural Needs in the Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, B. L.; Kluck, D. R.; Hatfield, J.; Black, C.; Kellner, O.; Woloszyn, M.; Timlin, M. S.

2015-12-01

Climate monitoring tools designed to help stakeholders reduce climate impacts have been developed for the primary Midwest field crops of corn and soybean. However, the region also produces vital livestock and specialty crops that currently lack similar climate monitoring and projection tools. In autumn 2015, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and Midwestern Regional Climate Center (MRCC) partnered with the US Department of Agriculture's Midwest Climate Hub to convene agriculture stakeholders, climate scientists, and climate service specialists to discuss climate impacts and needs for these two, often under-represented, sectors. The goals of this workshop were to (1) identify climate impacts that specialty crops and livestock producers face within the Midwest, (2) develop an understanding of the types of climate and weather information and tools currently available in the Midwest that could be applied to decision making, and (3) discover the types of climate and weather information and tools needed to address concerns of specialty crop and livestock commodities across the Midwest. This presentation will discuss the workshop and provide highlights of the outcomes that developed into strategic plans for the future to better serve these sectors of agriculture in the Midwest.

Educational process in modern climatology within the web-GIS platform "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Gordov, Evgeny; Martynova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara

2013-04-01

These days, common to all scientific fields the problem of training of scientists in the environmental sciences is exacerbated by the need to develop new computational and information technology skills in distributed multi-disciplinary teams. To address this and other pressing problems of Earth system sciences, software infrastructure for information support of integrated research in the geosciences was created based on modern information and computational technologies and a software and hardware platform "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) was developed. In addition to the direct analysis of geophysical data archives, the platform is aimed at teaching the basics of the study of changes in regional climate. The educational component of the platform includes a series of lectures on climate, environmental and meteorological modeling and laboratory work cycles on the basics of analysis of current and potential future regional climate change using Siberia territory as an example. The educational process within the Platform is implemented using the distance learning system Moodle (www.moodle.org). This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (contract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.

Provenance Representation in the Global Change Information System (GCIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilmes, Curt

2012-01-01

Global climate change is a topic that has become very controversial despite strong support within the scientific community. It is common for agencies releasing information about climate change to be served with Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests for everything that led to that conclusion. Capturing and presenting the provenance, linking to the research papers, data sets, models, analyses, observation instruments and satellites, etc. supporting key findings has the potential to mitigate skepticism in this domain. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is now coordinating the production of a National Climate Assessment (NCA) that presents our best understanding of global change. We are now developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will present the content of that report and its provenance, including the scientific support for the findings of the assessment. We are using an approach that will present this information both through a human accessible web site as well as a machine readable interface for automated mining of the provenance graph. We plan to use the developing W3C PROV Data Model and Ontology for this system.

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

Climate Narratives: Combing multiple sources of information to develop risk management strategies for a municipal water utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D. N.; Basdekas, L.; Rajagopalan, B.; Stewart, N.

2013-12-01

Municipal water utilities often develop Integrated Water Resource Plans (IWRP), with the goal of providing a reliable, sustainable water supply to customers in a cost-effective manner. Colorado Springs Utilities, a 5-service provider (potable and waste water, solid waste, natural gas and electricity) in Colorado USA, recently undertook an IWRP. where they incorporated water supply, water demand, water quality, infrastructure reliability, environmental protection, and other measures within the context of complex water rights, such as their critically important 'exchange potential'. The IWRP noted that an uncertain climate was one of the greatest sources of uncertainty to achieving a sustainable water supply to a growing community of users. We describe how historic drought, paleo-climate, and climate change projections were blended together into climate narratives that informed a suite of water resource systems models used by the utility to explore the vulnerabilities of their water systems.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception.

PubMed

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS): climate satisfaction evaluation based on subjective perception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu-Ping; Yang, Shing-Ru; Matzarakis, Andreas

2015-12-01

Climate not only influences the behavior of people in urban environments but also affects people's schedules and travel plans. Therefore, providing people with appropriate long-term climate evaluation information is crucial. Therefore, we developed an innovative climate assessment system based on field investigations conducted in three cities located in Northern, Central, and Southern Taiwan. The field investigations included the questionnaire surveys and climate data collection. We first analyzed the relationship between the participants and climate parameters comprising physiologically equivalent temperature, air temperature, humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud cover, and precipitation. Second, we established the neutral value, comfort range, and dissatisfied range of each parameter. Third, after verifying that the subjects' perception toward the climate parameters vary based on individual preferences, we developed the customized rating assessment of climate suitability (CRACS) approach, which featured functions such as personalized and default climate suitability information to be used by users exhibiting varying demands. Finally, we performed calculations using the climate conditions of two cities during the past 10 years to demonstrate the performance of the CRACS approach. The results can be used as a reference when planning activities in the city or when organizing future travel plans. The flexibility of the assessment system enables it to be adjusted for varying regions and usage characteristics.

Characterization and Quantification of Uncertainty in the NARCCAP Regional Climate Model Ensemble and Application to Impacts on Water Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mearns, L. O.; Sain, S. R.; McGinnis, S. A.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2015-12-01

In this talk we present the development of a joint Bayesian Probabilistic Model for the climate change results of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) that uses a unique prior in the model formulation. We use the climate change results (joint distribution of seasonal temperature and precipitation changes (future vs. current)) from the global climate models (GCMs) that provided boundary conditions for the six different regional climate models used in the program as informative priors for the bivariate Bayesian Model. The two variables involved are seasonal temperature and precipitation over sub-regions (i.e., Bukovsky Regions) of the full NARCCAP domain. The basic approach to the joint Bayesian hierarchical model follows the approach of Tebaldi and Sansó (2009). We compare model results using informative (i.e., GCM information) as well as uninformative priors. We apply these results to the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model for the Colorado Springs Utility in Colorado. We investigate the layout of the joint pdfs in the context of the water model sensitivities to ranges of temperature and precipitation results to determine the likelihoods of future climate conditions that cannot be accommodated by possible adaptation options. Comparisons may also be made with joint pdfs formed from the CMIP5 collection of global climate models and empirically downscaled to the region of interest.

Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.

2014-12-01

Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

ScienceCinema

None

2018-01-16

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Integrating Climate and Risk-Informed Science to Support Critical Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2016-07-27

The PNNL Environmental Health and Remediation Sector stewards several decision support capabilities to integrate climate- and risk-informed science to support critical decisions. Utilizing our expertise in risk and decision analysis, integrated Earth systems modeling, and remote sensing and geoinformatics, PNNL is influencing the way science informs high level decisions at national, regional and local scales to protect and preserve our most critical assets.

Building the capacity of Extension educators to address climate change and agricultural sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, T. B.; Doll, J. E.

2016-12-01

It is evident that changes in climate will adversely impact various sectors including agriculture and natural resources worldwide. Increased temperatures, longer than normal growing seasons, more frequent extreme weather events, decreased winter snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and vulnerability to pest are some of the examples of changes and impacts documented in the literature. According to the IPCC 2007, mainstreaming` climate change issues into decision-making is an important aspect for sustainability. Due to the lack of locally and regionally focused educational programs, it becomes difficult for people to translate the science into meaningful actions. One of the strengths of the Cooperative Extension system is that it is one of the most trusted sources of science-based information that is locally relevant. In order to utilize strong network of Cooperative Extension system, we implemented a project to provide regionally tailored climate change and sustainable agriculture professional development for Cooperative Extension and Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS) educators in 12 states in north central US. We conducted these activities: 1) creation and dissemination of a Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture Resource Handbook and a curriculum and 2) two climate change and sustainable agriculture workshops. In general, this project resulted in improved ability of Cooperative Extension academics to respond to climate change questions with science-based information. Several workshop attendees also integrated information provided to them through resource handbook and curriculum into their existing programming. In the long-term, we hope these programs will result in educators and farmers making informed choices and recommendations that lead to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.

Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

2015-09-01

Mixed crop-livestock systems are the backbone of African agriculture, providing food security and livelihood options for hundreds of millions of people. Much is known about the impacts of climate change on the crop enterprises in the mixed systems, and some, although less, on the livestock enterprises. The interactions between crops and livestock can be managed to contribute to environmentally sustainable intensification, diversification and risk management. There is relatively little information on how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and climate variability. This is a serious gap, because these interactions may offer some buffering capacity to help smallholders adapt to climate change.

Public Health Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using Stakeholder Feedback.

PubMed

Eidson, Millicent; Clancy, Kathleen A; Birkhead, Guthrie S

2016-01-01

Public health climate change adaptation planning is an urgent priority requiring stakeholder feedback. The 10 Essential Public Health Services can be applied to adaptation activities. To develop a state health department climate and health adaptation plan as informed by stakeholder feedback. With Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funding, the New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) implemented a 2010-2013 climate and health planning process, including 7 surveys on perceptions and adaptation priorities. New York State Department of Health program managers participated in initial (n = 41, denominator unknown) and follow-up (72.2%) needs assessments. Surveillance system information was collected from 98.1% of surveillance system managers. For adaptation prioritization surveys, participants included 75.4% of NYSDOH leaders; 60.3% of local health departments (LHDs); and 53.7% of other stakeholders representing environmental, governmental, health, community, policy, academic, and business organizations. Interviews were also completed with 38.9% of other stakeholders. In 2011 surveys, 34.1% of state health program directors believed that climate change would impact their program priorities. However, 84.6% of state health surveillance system managers provided ideas for using databases for climate and health monitoring/surveillance. In 2012 surveys, 46.5% of state health leaders agreed they had sufficient information about climate and health compared to 17.1% of LHDs (P = .0046) and 40.9% of other stakeholders (nonsignificant difference). Significantly fewer (P < .0001) LHDs (22.9%) were incorporating or considering incorporating climate and health into planning compared to state health leaders (55.8%) and other stakeholders (68.2%). Stakeholder groups agreed on the 4 highest priority adaptation categories including core public health activities such as surveillance, coordination/collaboration, education, and policy development. Feedback from diverse stakeholders was utilized by NYSDOH to develop its Climate and Health Strategic Map in 2013. The CDC Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework and funding provides a collaborative model for state climate and health adaptation planning.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 41 : GDIS Workshop Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Schubert, Siegfried; Pozzi, Will; Mo, Kingtse; Wood, Eric F.; Stahl, Kerstin; Hayes, Mike; Vogt, Juergen; Seneviratne, Sonia; Stewart, Ron;

A megaregion-scale approach for assessing the impacts of climate change and strategic management decisions in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, B.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Stewart, R. J.; Miara, A.; Lu, X.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ehsani, N.; Wollheim, W. M.; Melillo, J. M.; Fekete, B. M.; Dilekli, N.; Duchin, F.; Gross, B.; Bhatt, V.

2014-12-01

'Megaregions' have been identified as an important new scale of geography for policy decision-making in the United States. These regions extend beyond local boundaries (ie. cities, states) to incorporate areas with linked economies, infrastructure and land-use patterns and shared climate and environmental systems, such as watersheds. The corridor of densely connected metropolitan areas and surrounding hinterlands along the U.S. east coast from Maine to Virginia is the archetype of this type of unit: The Northeast Megaregion. The Northeast faces a unique set of policy challenges including: projections of a wetter, more extreme climate, aging and underfunded infrastructure and economically distressed rural areas. Megaregion-scale policy efforts such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and support for a regional food system have been recognized as strategic tools for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but decision-makers have limited information on the potential consequences of these strategies on the complex natural-human system of the Northeast, under various scenarios of global climate change. We have developed a Northeast Regional Earth System Model (NE-RESM) as a framework to provide this type of information. We integrate terrestrial ecosystem, hydrologic, energy system and economic models to investigate scenarios of paired regional socioeconomic pathways and global climate projections. Our initial results suggest that megaregion-scale strategic decisions in the Northeast may have important consequences for both local water management and global climate change mitigation.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; Trzaska, S.; Perez, C.; Kalashnikova, O. V.; del Corral, J.; Cousin, R.; Blumenthal, M. B.; Connor, S.; Thomson, M. C.

2012-12-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use, and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular Meningitis and Malaria. In this paper we present the new and improved products that have been developed for monitoring dust, temperature, rainfall and vectorial capacity model for monitoring and forecasting risks of Meningitis and Malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Determining climate change management priorities: A case study from Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeDee, Olivia E.; Ribic, Christine

2015-01-01

A burgeoning dialogue exists regarding how to allocate resources to maximize the likelihood of long-term biodiversity conservation within the context of climate change. To make effective decisions in natural resource management, an iterative, collaborative, and learning-based decision process may be more successful than a strictly consultative approach. One important, early step in a decision process is to identify priority species or systems. Although this promotes the conservation of select species or systems, it may inadvertently alter the future of non-target species and systems. We describe a process to screen terrestrial wildlife for potential sensitivity to climate change and then use the results to engage natural resource professionals in a process of identifying priorities for monitoring, research, and adaptation strategy implementation. We demonstrate this approach using a case study from Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, experts identified 23 out of 353 species with sufficient empirical research and management understanding to inform targeted action. Habitat management and management of hydrological conditions were the common strategies for targeted action. Although there may be an interest in adaptation strategy implementation for many species and systems, experts considered existing information inadequate to inform targeted action. According to experts, 40% of the vertebrate species in Wisconsin will require near-term intervention for climate adaptation. These results will inform state-wide conservation planning as well as regional efforts.

Commonalities of carbon dioxide exchange in semiarid regions with monsoon and Mediterranean climates

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Semiarid ecosystems with monsoon climates receive precipitation during the warm season while Mediterranean systems are characteristically wet in the cool season and dry in the summer. Comparing biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange across these two climate regimes can yield information about the int...

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, R. R.; Brewer, M.

2012-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a recent meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

The Global Drought Information System - A Decision Support Tool with Global Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, D. S.; Brewer, M.; Heim, R. R., Jr.

2014-12-01

Drought is a natural hazard which can cause famine in developing countries and severe economic hardship in developed countries. Given current concerns with the increasing frequency and magnitude of droughts in many regions of the world, especially in the light of expected climate change, drought monitoring and dissemination of early warning information in a timely fashion on a global scale is a critical concern as an important adaptation and mitigation strategy. While a number of nations, and a few continental-scale activities have developed drought information system activities, a global drought early warning system (GDEWS) remains elusive, despite the benefits highlighted by ministers to the Global Earth Observation System of System in 2008. In an effort to begin a process of drought monitoring with international collaboration, the National Integrated Drought Information System's (NIDIS) U.S. Drought Portal, a web-based information system created to address drought services and early warning in the United States, including drought monitoring, forecasting, impacts, mitigation, research, and education, volunteered to develop a prototype Global Drought Monitoring Portal (GDMP). Through integration of data and information at the global level, and with four continental-level partners, the GDMP has proven successful as a tool to monitor drought around the globe. At a past meeting between NIDIS, the World Meteorological Organization, and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, it was recommended that the GDMP form the basis for a Global Drought Information System (GDIS). Currently, GDIS activities are focused around providing operational global drought monitoring products and assessments, incorporating additional drought monitoring information, especially from those areas without regional or continental-scale input, and incorporating drought-specific climate forecast information from the World Climate Research Programme. Additional GDIS pilot activities are underway with an emphasis on information and decision making, and how to effectively provide drought early warning. This talk will provide an update on the status of GDIS and its role in international drought monitoring.

Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

2009-12-01

Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or predictions but information on potential “futures” derived from past records, expert judgments, scenarios, and availability of mechanisms and capacity to use such information. Effective experimental climate services facilitate ongoing appraisals of knowledge needs for informing adaptation and mitigation options across sectors and across scenarios of near and longer-term future climates. Analyses show that climate service experiments drawing on data, applied research and prototyping functions of activities such as RISAs and RCCs are critical to developing the learning needed to inform and structure the flow of knowledge and understanding from problem definition and applications research to information delivery, use and evaluation. These activities effectively serve to inform services implementation when overarching cross-agency coordination, knowledge management, and innovation diffusion mechanisms such as afforded by NIDIS and the Coastal Services Center are engaged. We also demonstrate the importance of positioning climate research to engage and inform the decision-making process as society anticipates and responds to climate and its impacts.

Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

2011-12-01

A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

The NextData Project: a national Italian system for the retrieval, storage, access and diffusion of environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello

2013-04-01

Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental change and many marine regions provide information on past climate variations. The Project of Interest NextData will favour the implementation of measurement networks in remote mountain and marine areas and will develop efficient web portals to access meteoclimatic and atmospheric composition data, past climate information from ice and sediment cores, biodiversity and ecosystem data, measurements of the hydrological cycle, marine reanalyses and climate projections at global and regional scale. New data on the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections in the Alps, the Himalaya-Karakoram, the Mediterranean region and other areas of interest will be obtained and made available. The pilot studies conducted during the project will allow for obtaining new estimates on the availability of water resources and on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on high-altitude environments, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on ecosystems, health and societies in mountain regions. The system of archives and the scientific results produced by the NextData project will provide a unique data base for research, for environmental management and for the estimate of climate change impacts, allowing for the development of knowledge-based environmental and climate adaptation policies.

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia;

78 FR 36753 - North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-19

... landscape system, considering future sea-level rise and climate change scenarios. In addition, the... management and climate change and sea-level rise considerations. Additional information and a study area map...

The key role of the meat industry in transformation to a low-carbon, climate resilient, sustainable economy.

PubMed

Rijsberman, Frank

2017-10-01

Climate change, air pollution and refugees have become key global challenges threatening sustainability of lifestyles, economies and ecosystems. Agri-food systems are the number one driver of environmental change. Livestock production is the world's largest land user, responsible for half of greenhouse gas emissions from agri-food systems, and the source of repeated health crises. Poor diets have become the number one cause of ill health. Recommendations for a healthy diet emphasize plant-based food. Rapidly falling costs in information technology, biotechnology, renewable energy and battery technology will disrupt current energy and transportation systems and offer opportunities for responsible meat production. Growing consumer interest in healthy food, combined with innovative information systems, offer opportunities to create value through quality control and consumer information in integrated value chains. Meat scientists have a major role to play in the necessary transformation of global agri-food systems towards a new model of green economic growth that is climate resilient, sustainable and provides green jobs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

Linking Climate Change Education through the Integration of a Kite-Borne Remote Sensing System: Linking Climate Change Education and Remote Sensing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xie, Yichun; Henry, Andy; Bydlowski, David; Musial, Joseph

2014-01-01

A majority of secondary science teachers are found to include the topic of climate change in their courses. However, teachers informally and sporadically discuss climate change and students rarely understand the underlying scientific concepts. The project team developed an innovative pedagogical approach, in which teachers and students learn…

Carbon pollution increases health inequities: lessons in resilience from the most vulnerable.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Fawcett, Stephen B; Spiegel, Jerry; Tovalin, Horacio

2016-09-01

Climate change is a social justice as well as an environmental issue. The magnitude and pattern of changes in weather and climate variables are creating differential exposures, vulnerabilities, and health risks that increase stress on health systems while exacerbating existing and creating new health inequities. Examples from national and local health adaptation projects highlight that developing partnerships across sectors and levels are critical for building climate-resilient health systems and communities. Strengthening current and implementing new health interventions, such as using environmental information to develop early warning systems, can be effective in protecting the most vulnerable. However, not all projected risks of climate change can be avoided by climate policies and programs, so health system strengthening is also critical. Applying a health inequity lens can reduce current vulnerabilities while building resilience to longer-term climate change. Taking inequities into account is critical if societies are to effectively prepare for and manage the challenges ahead.

Issues in Integrating Information Technology in Learning and Teaching EFL: The Saudi Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Maini, Yousef Hamad

2013-01-01

The Saudi education system is facing a climate of change characterized by an interest in integrating new technology and educational approaches to improve teaching and learning. In this climate, the present paper explores the issues in integrating information technology in learning and teaching English as a foreign language (EFL) in government…

A Web Geographic Information System to share data and explorative analysis tools: The application to West Nile disease in the Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Savini, Lara; Tora, Susanna; Di Lorenzo, Alessio; Cioci, Daniela; Monaco, Federica; Polci, Andrea; Orsini, Massimiliano; Calistri, Paolo; Conte, Annamaria

2018-01-01

In the last decades an increasing number of West Nile Disease cases was observed in equines and humans in the Mediterranean basin and surveillance systems are set up in numerous countries to manage and control the disease. The collection, storage and distribution of information on the spread of the disease becomes important for a shared intervention and control strategy. To this end, a Web Geographic Information System has been developed and disease data, climatic and environmental remote sensed data, full genome sequences of selected isolated strains are made available. This paper describes the Disease Monitoring Dashboard (DMD) web system application, the tools available for the preliminary analysis on climatic and environmental factors and the other interactive tools for epidemiological analysis. WNV occurrence data are collected from multiple official and unofficial sources. Whole genome sequences and metadata of WNV strains are retrieved from public databases or generated in the framework of the Italian surveillance activities. Climatic and environmental data are provided by NASA website. The Geographical Information System is composed by Oracle 10g Database and ESRI ArcGIS Server 10.03; the web mapping client application is developed with the ArcGIS API for Javascript and Phylocanvas library to facilitate and optimize the mash-up approach. ESRI ArcSDE 10.1 has been used to store spatial data. The DMD application is accessible through a generic web browser at https://netmed.izs.it/networkMediterraneo/. The system collects data through on-line forms and automated procedures and visualizes data as interactive graphs, maps and tables. The spatial and temporal dynamic visualization of disease events is managed by a time slider that returns results on both map and epidemiological curve. Climatic and environmental data can be associated to cases through python procedures and downloaded as Excel files. The system compiles multiple datasets through user-friendly web tools; it integrates entomological, veterinary and human surveillance, molecular information on pathogens and environmental and climatic data. The principal result of the DMD development is the transfer and dissemination of knowledge and technologies to develop strategies for integrated prevention and control measures of animal and human diseases.

Sensitivity of proxies on non-linear interactions in the climate system

PubMed Central

Schultz, Johannes A.; Beck, Christoph; Menz, Gunter; Neuwirth, Burkhard; Ohlwein, Christian; Philipp, Andreas

2015-01-01

Recent climate change is affecting the earth system to an unprecedented extent and intensity and has the potential to cause severe ecological and socioeconomic consequences. To understand natural and anthropogenic induced processes, feedbacks, trends, and dynamics in the climate system, it is also essential to consider longer timescales. In this context, annually resolved tree-ring data are often used to reconstruct past temperature or precipitation variability as well as atmospheric or oceanic indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The aim of this study is to assess weather-type sensitivity across the Northern Atlantic region based on two tree-ring width networks. Our results indicate that nonstationarities in superordinate space and time scales of the climate system (here synoptic- to global scale, NAO, AMO) can affect the climate sensitivity of tree-rings in subordinate levels of the system (here meso- to synoptic scale, weather-types). This scale bias effect has the capability to impact even large multiproxy networks and the ability of these networks to provide information about past climate conditions. To avoid scale biases in climate reconstructions, interdependencies between the different scales in the climate system must be considered, especially internal ocean/atmosphere dynamics. PMID:26686001

Engagement with indigenous peoples and honoring traditional knowledge systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Bennett, Bull; Chief, Karletta; Cochran, Patricia; Cozetto, Karen; Gough, Bob; Hiza-Redsteer, Margaret M.; Lynn, Kathy; Maynard, Nancy; Voggesser, Garrit

2016-01-01

The organizers of the 2014 US National Climate Assessment (NCA) made a concerted effort to reach out to and collaborate with Indigenous peoples, resulting in the most comprehensive information to date on climate change impacts to Indigenous peoples in a US national assessment. Yet, there is still much room for improvement in assessment processes to ensure adequate recognition of Indigenous perspectives and Indigenous knowledge systems. This article discusses the process used in creating the Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources NCA chapter by a team comprised of tribal members, agencies, academics, and non-governmental organizations, who worked together to solicit, collect, and synthesize traditional knowledges and data from a diverse array of Indigenous communities across the US. It also discusses the synergy and discord between traditional knowledge systems and science and the emergence of cross-cutting issues and vulnerabilities for Indigenous peoples. The challenges of coalescing information about climate change and its impacts on Indigenous communities are outlined along with recommendations on the types of information to include in future assessment outputs. We recommend that future assessments – not only NCA, but other relevant local, regional, national, and international efforts aimed at the translation of climate information and assessments into meaningful actions – should support integration of Indigenous perspectives in a sustained way that builds respectful relationships and effectively engages Indigenous communities. Given the large number of tribes in the US and the current challenges and unique vulnerabilities of Indigenous communities, a special report focusing solely on climate change and Indigenous peoples is warranted.This article is part of a special issue on “The National Climate Assessment: Innovations in Science and Engagement” edited by Katharine Jacobs, Susanne Moser, and James Buizer.

A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

2016-06-01

The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

Uncertainty in Driftless Area Cold-Water Fishery Decision Making and a Framework for Stakeholder-Based Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Z.

2015-12-01

The paradigm of stakeholder-based science is becoming more popular as organizations such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers adopt it as a way of providing practicable climate change information to practitioners. One of the key issues stakeholders face in adopting climate change information into their decision processes is how uncertainty is addressed and communicated. In this study, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with managers and scientists working on stream habitat restoration of cold-water fisheries in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin that were focused on how they interpret and manage uncertainty and what types of information they need to make better decisions. One of the important lessons we learned from the interviews is that if researchers are going to provide useful climate change information to stakeholders, they need to understand where and how decisions are made and what adaptation measures are actually available in a given decision arena. This method of incorporating social science methods into climate science production can provide a framework for researchers from the Climate Science Centers and others who are interested in pursuing stakeholder-based science. By indentifying a specific ecological system and conducting interviews with actors who work on that system, researchers will be able to gain a better understanding of how their climate change science can fit into existing or shape new decision processes. We also interpreted lessons learned from our interviews via existing literature in areas such as stakeholder-based modeling and the decision sciences to provide guidance specific to the stakeholder-based science process.

Climate change and adaptation of the health sector: The case of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Confalonieri, Ulisses E C; Menezes, Júlia Alves; Margonari de Souza, Carina

2015-01-01

Infectious diseases form a group of health problems highly susceptible to the influences of climate. Adaptation to protect human population health from the changes in infectious disease epidemiology expected to occur as a consequence of climate change involve actions in the health systems as well as in other non-health sectors. In the health sector strategies such as enhanced and targeted epidemiological and entomological surveillance and the development of epidemic early warning systems informed by climate scenarios are needed. Measures in other sectors such as meteorology, civil defense and environmental sanitation will also contribute to a reduction in the risk of infection under climate change.

Meteorological stations as a tool to teach on climate system sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Bodí, Merche B.; Damián Ruiz-Sinoga, José

2010-05-01

Higher education has been focussed on teaching climate system theory. Meteorology and climatology student rarely visited a meteorological station. However, meteorological stations are the source of information for the climate system studies and they supply the key information for modelling. This paper shows how meteorological station is a key tool to introduce student to the study of climate and meteorology. The research stations of Montesa and El Teularet-Sierra de Enguera are being used for seven years to supply data to the students of Climatology, 1st year of the Degree in Geography at the University of Valencia. The results show that the students that used the raw data set were proud to use original data. Those students got higher qualifications and they choose also in the following year courses on climatology or Physical Geography. Then, the conclusions are that the use of meteorological stations is a positive contribution to the improvement of the knowledge of the students, and his compromise with the science and the environment.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

The Mars climate for a photovoltaic system operation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Appelbaum, Joseph; Flood, Dennis J.

1989-01-01

Detailed information on the climatic conditions on Mars are very desirable for the design of photovoltaic systems for establishing outposts on the Martian surface. The distribution of solar insolation (global, direct and diffuse) and ambient temperature is addressed. This data are given at the Viking lander's locations and can also be used, to a first approximation, for other latitudes. The insolation data is based on measured optical depth of the Martian atmosphere derived from images taken of the sun with a special diode on the Viking cameras; and computation based on multiple wavelength and multiple scattering of the solar radiation. The ambient temperature (diurnal and yearly distribution) is based on direct measurements with a thermocouple at 1.6 m above the ground at the Viking lander locations. The insolation and ambient temperature information are short term data. New information about Mars may be forthcoming in the future from new analysis of previously collected data or from future flight missions. The Mars climate data for photovoltaic system operation will thus be updated accordingly.

Climate in Context - How partnerships evolve in regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parris, A. S.

2014-12-01

In 2015, NOAA's RISA program will celebrate its 20th year of exploration in the development of usable climate information. In the mid-1990s, a vision emerged to develop interdisciplinary research efforts at the regional scale for several important reasons. Recognizable climate patterns, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerge at the regional level where our understanding of observations and models coalesce. Critical resources for society are managed in a context of regional systems, such as water supply and human populations. Multiple scales of governance (local, state, and federal) with complex institutional relationships can be examined across a region. Climate information (i.e. data, science, research etc) developed within these contexts has greater potential for use. All of this work rests on a foundation of iterative engagement between scientists and decision makers. Throughout these interactions, RISAs have navigated diverse politics, extreme events and disasters, socio-economic and ecological disruptions, and advances in both science and technology. Our understanding of information needs is evolving into a richer understanding of complex institutional, legal, political, and cultural contexts within which people can use science to make informed decisions. The outcome of RISA work includes both cases where climate information was used in decisions and cases where capacity for using climate information and making climate resilient decisions has increased over time. In addition to balancing supply and demand of scientific information, RISAs are engaged in a social process of reconciling climate information use with important drivers of society. Because partnerships are critical for sustained engagement, and because engagement is critically important to the use of science, the rapid development of new capacity in regionally-based science programs focused on providing climate decision support is both needed and challenging. New actors can bolster existing partnerships, but also impact trust developed through engagement. Examining other partnership-driven science initiatives, such as Digital Coast or NIDIS, can help identify critical elements of governance and network management that could be applied to the regional climate programs.

Evaluation of the tourism climate in the Hexi Corridor of northwest China's Gansu Province during 1980-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fuxian; Zhang, Mingjun; Wang, Shengjie; Qiang, Fang; Che, Yanjun; Wang, Jie

2017-08-01

As a pivotal section of the Silk Road in northwest China, the Hexi Corridor is a popular tourist destination. In this study, the tourism climate conditions in this region were discussed using the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and the Climate-Tourism/Transfer-information-Scheme (CTIS) from 1980 to 2012. Overall, cold or cool stress was prevalent in the area, and the optimal travel period was from May to September. With global warming, the annual numbers of cumulative days with relatively cold conditions decreased, and the annual numbers of cumulative days with comfortable and relatively hot conditions increased. Two typical stations, Wushaoling and Dunhuang, were compared and analysed for their tourism climate information according to the frequency of PET and CTIS conditions, respectively. In addition, regional variations in the tourism climate conditions based on geographic information systems (GIS) were investigated during the optimal travel period.

Front-end Evaluation as Part of a Comprehensive Approach to Inform the Development of a New Climate Exhibit at NCAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ristvey, J. D., Jr.; Brinkworth, C.; Hatheway, B.; Williams, V.

2015-12-01

In an era of discord in public views of climate change, communicating atmospheric and related sciences to the public at a large research facility like the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) can be a daunting challenge yet one that is filled with many possibilities. The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Center for Science Education (SciEd) is responsible for education and outreach activities at UCAR, including the exhibits program. Over 90,000 people visit the NCAR Mesa Lab each year to enjoy a number of exhibits that showcase our community's research. The current climate exhibit is twelve years old, and with advances in our understanding of climate science and exhibit design, SciEd staff are developing a new exhibit that is as cutting edge as the research conducted at NCAR. Based on listening sessions with NCAR scientists, the following big ideas for the exhibit emerged: How the climate system works The climate system is changing How scientists study our climate Regional impacts Solutions The goal of the new climate exhibit is to reach people using a variety of learning styles, including offerings for visitors who learn by doing, as well as providing informative text and images (Hatheway, 2014). Developers and evaluators are working together to conduct front-end, formative, and summative evaluations to understand of the needs of our visitors and collect ongoing data to inform development. The purpose of the front-end evaluation, conducted in the summer of 2014 was to develop informed data-driven strategies to move forward with exhibit design. The evaluation results to be shared in this session include: The demographics and behaviors of visitors Trends in visitors' experiences Visitor input on exhibit design (Williams and Tarsi, 2014). In this presentation, we will share the results, significance, and application of the front-end evaluation as part of a comprehensive approach to study both how we convey information about climate science and plan for the re-design of a new climate exhibit.

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

2009-01-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

75 FR 37405 - Notice of Public Review and Comment Period on NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... Federal role in responding to the Nation's most urgent challenges, ranging from climate change, severe... changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, share knowledge and information with others, and conserve... changing climate system and its impacts. Objective: Integrated assessments of current and future states of...

Localizing drought monitoring products to support agricultural climate service advisories in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qamer, F. M.; Matin, M. A.; Yadav, N. K.; Bajracharya, B.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Ellenburg, W. L.; Krupnik, T. J.; Hussain, G.

2017-12-01

The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies drought as one of the major climate risks in South Asia. During past two decades, a large amount of climate data have been made available by the scientific community, but the deployment of climate information for local level and agricultural decision making remains less than optimal. The provisioning of locally calibrated, easily accessible, decision-relevant and user-oriented information, in the form of drought advisory service could help to prepare communities to reduce climate vulnerability and increase resilience. A collaborative effort is now underway to strengthen existing and/or establish new drought monitoring and early warning systems in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Pakistan by incorporating standard ground-based observations, earth observation datasets, and numerical forecast models. ICT-based agriculture drought monitoring platforms, hosted at national agricultural and meteorological institutions, are being developed and coupled with communications and information deployment strategies to enable the rapid and efficient deployment of information that farmers can understand, interpret, and act on to adapt to anticipated droughts. Particular emphasis is being placed on the calibration and validation of data products through retrospective analysis of time series data, in addition to the installation of automatic weather station networks. In order to contextualize monitoring products to that they may be relevant for farmers' primary cropping systems, district level farming practices calendars are being compiled and validated through focus groups and surveys to identify the most important times and situations during which farmers can adapt to drought. High-resolution satellite crop distribution maps are under development and validation to add value to these efforts. This programme also aims to enhance capacity of agricultural extension staff to better understand climate information, probabilistic forecasts, related technologies, and adaptation strategies, in addition to equipping them with increased capacity to convey drought risks to farmers and improve climate related decision making.

A general scientific information system to support the study of climate-related data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treinish, L. A.

1984-01-01

The development and use of NASA's Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) are discussed. The PCDS is used as a focal point for managing and providing access to a large collection of actively used data for the Earth, ocean and atmospheric sciences. The PCDS provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, and access methods for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Scientific users can preview the data sets using graphical and statistical methods. The system has evolved from its original purpose as a climate data base management system in response to a national climate program, into an extensive package of capabilities to support many types of data sets from both spaceborne and surface based measurements with flexible data selection and analysis functions.

CIRUN: Climate Information Responding to User Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2009-12-01

The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, exceeding the scope of natural climate variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to this certainty of climate variability and change. In response, OSTP and NOAA are considering how comprehensive climate services would best inform decisions about adaptation. Similarly, NASA is considering the optimal configuration of the next generation of Earth, environmental, and climate observations to be deployed over the coming 10-20 years. Moreover, much of the added-value information for specific climate-related decisions will be provided by private, academic and non-governmental organizations. In this context, over the past several years the University of Maryland has established the CIRUN (Climate Information: Responding to User Needs) initiative to identify the nature of national needs for climate information and services from a decision support perspective. To date, CIRUN has brought together decisionmakers in a number of sectors to help understand their perspectives on climate with the goal of improving the usefulness of climate information, observations and prediction products to specific user communities. CIRUN began with a major workshop in October 2007 that convened 430 participants in agriculture, parks and recreation, terrestrial ecosystems, insurance/investment, energy, national security, state/local/municipal, water, human health, commerce and manufacturing, transportation, and coastal/marine sectors. Plenary speakers such as Norman Augustine, R. James Woolsey, James Mahoney, and former Senator Joseph Tydings, breakout panel sessions, and participants provided input based on the following: - How would you characterize the exposure or vulnerability to climate variability or change impacting your organization? - Does climate variability and/or change currently factor into your organization's objectives or operations? - Are any of your existing plans being affected by climate or projections of climate change? - Is your organization developing a plan for adapting to climate change? - What are your needs for climate observations, predictions, and services? Please cite one or more specific examples when possible. - Do you currently have access to the climate information your organization needs? - What next steps are needed to assure effective use of climate services in your decision making? As a result, a dialogue with various user communities and a subsequent series of more sector specific workshops has been established regarding how significantly enhanced climate observations, data management, modeling, and predictions can provide valuable decision support for business and policy decisions. In particular, CIRUN has helped - To identify how users, stakeholders, and decision makers are influenced by climate on time scales from seasons to decades - To identify the needs and requirements of users, stakeholders, and decision makers for climate information, observations, predictions, and services from global to local scales - To identify what adaptation measures are being considered in the private and public sectors, and how this might result in new classes of information for decision support - To recommend principal elements of the path forward toward more effective use of climate services in decision making.

An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaye, J. A.

2009-12-01

The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could lead to rapid changes in ice-sheet dynamics that could impact future sea-level rise and tipping points in biological systems (including those that may be associated with ocean acidification). 5. Improve understanding of the most effective ways to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as unintended consequences of such actions. Research will help to identify the desired mix of mitigation options necessary to control the rate and magnitude of climate change, and to examine possible unintended consequences of mitigation options. 6. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is important to improve understanding of how to enhance society’s capacity to adapt to a changing climate in the context of other environmental stresses.

Evaluating the Relevance, Reliability, and Applicability of CMIP5 Climate Projections for Water Resources and Environmental Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Scott, J.; Ferguson, I. M.; Arnold, J.; Raff, D. A.; Webb, R. S.

2012-12-01

Water managers need to understand the applicability of climate projection information available for decision-support at the scale of their applications. Applicability depends on information reliability and relevance. This need to understand applicability stems from expectations that entities rationalize adaptation investments or decisions to delay investment. It is also occurring at a time when new global climate projections are being released through the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), which introduces new information opportunities and interpretation challenges. This project involves an interagency collaboration to evaluate the applicability of CMIP5 projections for use in water and environmental resources planning. The overarching goal is to develop and demonstrate a framework that involves dual evaluations of relevance and reliability informing an ultimate discussion and judgment of applicability, which is expected to vary with decision-making context. The framework is being developed and demonstrated within the context of reservoir systems management in California's Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins. The relevance evaluation focuses on identifying the climate variables and statistical measures relevant to long-term management questions, which may depend on satisfying multiple objectives. Past studies' results are being considered in this evaluation, along with new results from system sensitivity analyses conducted through this effort. The reliability evaluation focuses on the CMIP5 climate models' ability to simulate past conditions relative to observed references. The evaluation is being conducted across the global domain using a large menu of climate variables and statistical measures, leveraging lessons learned from similar evaluations of CMIP3 climate models. The global focus addresses a broader project goal of producing a web resource that can serve reliability information to applicability discussions around the world, with evaluation results being served through a web-portal similar to that developed by NOAA/CIRES to serve CMIP3 information on future climate extremes (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/ipcc/extremes/). The framework concludes with an applicability discussion informed by relevance and reliability results. The goal is to observe the discussion process and identify features, choice points, and challenges that might be summarized and shared with other resource management groups facing applicability questions. This presentation will discuss the project framework and preliminary results. In addition to considering CMIP5 21st century projection information, the framework is being developed to support evaluation of CMIP5 decadal predictability experiment simulations and reconcile those simulations with 21st century projections. The presentation will also discuss implications of considering the applicability of bias-corrected and downscaled information within this framework.

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Improving Decision-Making Activities for Meningitis and Malaria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ceccato, Pietro; Trzaska, Sylwia; Garcia-Pando, Carlos Perez; Kalashnikova, Olga; del Corral, John; Cousin, Remi; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Bell, Michael; Connor, Stephen J.; Thomson, Madeleine C.

2013-01-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on infectious disease, in particular meningitis and malaria. In this paper, we present the new and improved products that have been developed for: (i) estimating dust aerosol for forecasting risks of meningitis and (ii) for monitoring temperature and rainfall and integrating them into a vectorial capacity model for forecasting risks of malaria epidemics. We also present how the products have been integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map Room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to understand the trade-offs that exist between the additional costs of a scheme and the level of risk that is accommodated.

Advanced Information Technology Investments at the NASA Earth Science Technology Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clune, T.; Seablom, M. S.; Moe, K.

2012-12-01

The NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) regularly makes investments for nurturing advanced concepts in information technology to enable rapid, low-cost acquisition, processing and visualization of Earth science data in support of future NASA missions and climate change research. In 2012, the National Research Council published a mid-term assessment of the 2007 decadal survey for future spacemissions supporting Earth science and applications [1]. The report stated, "Earth sciences have advanced significantly because of existing observational capabilities and the fruit of past investments, along with advances in data and information systems, computer science, and enabling technologies." The report found that NASA had responded favorably and aggressively to the decadal survey and noted the role of the recent ESTO solicitation for information systems technologies that partnered with the NASA Applied Sciences Program to support the transition into operations. NASA's future missions are key stakeholders for the ESTO technology investments. Also driving these investments is the need for the Agency to properly address questions regarding the prediction, adaptation, and eventual mitigation of climate change. The Earth Science Division has championed interdisciplinary research, recognizing that the Earth must be studied as a complete system in order toaddress key science questions [2]. Information technology investments in the low-mid technology readiness level (TRL) range play a key role in meeting these challenges. ESTO's Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) program invests in higher risk / higher reward technologies that solve the most challenging problems of the information processing chain. This includes the space segment, where the information pipeline begins, to the end user, where knowledge is ultimatelyadvanced. The objectives of the program are to reduce the risk, cost, size, and development time of Earth Science space-based and ground-based systems, increase the accessibility and utility of science data, and to enable new observation measurements and information products. We will discuss the ESTO investment strategy for information technology development, the methods used to assess stakeholder needs and technology advancements, and technology partnerships to enhance the infusion for the resulting technology. We also describe specific investments and their potential impact on enabling NASA missions and scientific discovery. [1] "Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Midterm Assessment of NASA's Implementation of the Decadal Survey", 2012: National Academies Press, http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=13405 [2] "Responding to the Challenge of Climate and Environmental Change: NASA's Plan for a Climate-Centric Architecture for Earth Observations and Applications from Space", 2010: NASA Tech Memo, http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2010/07/01/Climate_Architecture_Final.pdf

Development and Implementation of Flood Risk Mapping, Water Bodies Monitoring and Climate Information for Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Jensen, K.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.

2013-12-01

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact that climate variability and change can have on infectious disease. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), City College of New York (CCNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) are developing new products to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use, and demand the appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of climate on vector-borne diseases such as malaria, leishmaniasis, rift valley fever. In this poster we present the new and improved products that have been developed for monitoring water bodies for monitoring and forecasting risks of vector-borne disease epidemics. The products include seasonal inundation patterns in the East African region based on the global mappings of inundated water fraction derived at the 25-km scale from both active and passive microwave instruments QuikSCAT, AMSR-E, SSM/I, ERS, ASCAT, and MODIS and LANDSAT data. We also present how the products are integrated into a knowledge system (IRI Data Library Map room, SERVIR) to support the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive health decision-making.

Climate and bark beetle effects on forest productivity -- linking dendroecology with forest landscape modeling

Treesearch

Alec M. Kretchun; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Matthew D. Hurteau; Soumaya Belmecheri

2016-01-01

In forested systems throughout the world, climate influences tree growth and aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). The effects of extreme climate events (i.e., drought) on ANPP can be compounded by biotic factors (e.g., insect outbreaks). Understanding the contribution of each of these influences on growth requires information at...

Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

2003-01-01

Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

Current State of Climate Education in the United States: Are Graduate Students being Adequately Prepared to Address Climate Issues?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuster, E.; Fox, G.

2016-12-01

Climate change is happening; scientists have already observed changes in sea level, increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, and declining polar ice. The students of today are the leaders of tomorrow, and it is our duty to make sure they are well equipped and they understand the implications of climate change as part of their research and professional careers. Graduate students, in particular, are gaining valuable and necessary research, leadership, and critical thinking skills, but we need to ensure that they are receiving the appropriate climate education in their graduate training. Previous studies have primarily focused on capturing the K-12, college level, and general publics' knowledge of the climate system, concluding with recommendations on how to improve climate literacy in the classroom. While this is extremely important to study, very few studies have captured the current perception that graduate students hold regarding the amount of climate education being offered to them. This information is important to capture, as it can inform future curriculum development. We developed and distributed a nationwide survey (495 respondents) for graduate students to capture their perception on the level of climate system education being offered and their view on the importance of having climate education. We also investigated differences in the responses based on either geographic area or discipline. We compared how important graduate students felt it was to include climate education in their own discipline versus outside disciplines. The authors will discuss key findings from this ongoing research.

Applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for transportation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-31

This report describes the current practice and application of GIS technologies for integrating climate change into the transportation decision-making process. It examines how select state, regional, and local agencies are using GIS to analyze, mitiga...

Enhancing the resilience of Idaho's transportation system to natural hazards and climate change.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

This research compiled information on past landslides, including date-referencing and geo-locating events; analyzed and mapped variables : contributing to slide susceptibility; demonstrated the conditions of the future climate models that may increas...

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): status of implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio, Filipe

2014-05-01

The GFCS is a global partnership of governments and UN and international agencies that produce and use climate information and services. WMO, which is leading the initiative in collaboration with UN ISDR, WHO, WFP, FAO, UNESCO, UNDP and other UN and international partners are pooling their expertise and resources in order to co-design and co-produce knowledge, information and services to support effective decision making in response to climate variability and change in four priority areas (agriculture and fod security, water, health and disaster risk reduction). To address the entire value chain for the effective production and application of climate services the GFCS main components or pillars are being implemented, namely: • User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact to identify needs and capacities and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services; • Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data, products and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards; • Observations and Monitoring - to generate the necessary data for climate services according to agreed standards; • Research, Modelling and Prediction — to harness science capabilities and results and develop appropriate tools to meet the needs of climate services; • Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective climate services. Activities are being implemented in various countries in Africa, the Caribbean and South pacific Islands. This paper will provide details on the status of implementation of the GFCS worldwider.

The essential interactions between understanding climate variability and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neelin, J. D.

2017-12-01

Global change is sometimes perceived as a field separate from other aspects of atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Despite the long history of communication between the scientific communities studying global change and those studying interannual variability and weather, increasing specialization and conflicting societal demands on the fields can put these interactions at risk. At the same time, current trajectories for greenhouse gas emissions imply substantial adaptation to climate change will be necessary. Instead of simply projecting effects to be avoided, the field is increasingly being asked to provide regional-level information for specific adaptation strategies—with associated requirements for increased precision on projections. For extreme events, challenges include validating models for rare events, especially for events that are unprecedented in the historical record. These factors will be illustrated with examples of information transfer to climate change from work on fundamental climate processes aimed originally at timescales from hours to interannual. Work to understand the effects that control probability distributions of moisture, temperature and precipitation in historical weather can yield new factors to examine for the changes in the extremes of these distributions under climate change. Surprisingly simple process models can give insights into the behavior of vastly more complex climate models. Observation systems and model ensembles aimed at weather and interannual variations prove valuable for global change and vice versa. Work on teleconnections in the climate system, such as the remote impacts of El Niño, is informing analysis of projected regional rainfall change over California. Young scientists need to prepare to work across the full spectrum of climate variability and change, and to communicate their findings, as they and our society head for future that is more interesting than optimal.

Potential economic value of drought information to support early warning in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quiroga, S.; Iglesias, A.; Diz, A.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

We present a methodology to estimate the economic value of advanced climate information for food production in Africa under climate change scenarios. The results aim to facilitate better choices in water resources management. The methodology includes 4 sequential steps. First two contrasting management strategies (with and without early warning) are defined. Second, the associated impacts of the management actions are estimated by calculating the effect of drought in crop productivity under climate change scenarios. Third, the optimal management option is calculated as a function of the drought information and risk aversion of potential information users. Finally we use these optimal management simulations to compute the economic value of enhanced water allocation rules to support stable food production in Africa. Our results show how a timely response to climate variations can help reduce loses in food production. The proposed framework is developed within the Dewfora project (Early warning and forecasting systems to predict climate related drought vulnerability and risk in Africa) that aims to improve the knowledge on drought forecasting, warning and mitigation, and advance the understanding of climate related vulnerability to drought and to develop a prototype operational forecasting.

Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems

PubMed Central

Worrall, Eve; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

2008-01-01

Background This paper examines how the cost-effectiveness of IRS varies depending on the severity of transmission and level of programme coverage and how efficiency could be improved by incorporating climate information into decision making for malaria control programmes as part of an integrated Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS). Methods A climate driven model of malaria transmission was used to simulate cost-effectiveness of alternative IRS coverage levels over six epidemic and non-epidemic years. Decision rules for a potential MEWS system that triggers different IRS coverage are described. The average and marginal cost per case averted with baseline IRS coverage (24%) and under varying IRS coverage levels (50%, 75% and 100%) were calculated. Results Average cost-effectiveness of 24% coverage varies dramatically between years, from US$108 per case prevented in low transmission to US$0.42 in epidemic years. Similarly for higher coverage (24–100%) cost per case prevented is far higher in low than high transmission years ($108–$267 to $0.88–$2.26). Discussion Efficiency and health benefit gains could be achieved by implementing MEWS that provides timely, accurate information. Evidence from southern Africa, (especially Botswana) supports this. Conclusion Advance knowledge of transmission severity can help managers make coverage decisions which optimise resource use and exploit efficiency gains if a fully integrated MEWS is in place alongside a health system with sufficient flexibility to modify control plans in response to information. More countries and programmes should be supported to use the best available evidence and science to integrate climate informed MEWS into decision making within malaria control programmes. PMID:19108723

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

An agricultural survey for more than 9,500 African households

PubMed Central

Waha, Katharina; Zipf, Birgit; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Hassan, Rashid M.

2016-01-01

Surveys for more than 9,500 households were conducted in the growing seasons 2002/2003 or 2003/2004 in eleven African countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Niger and Senegal in western Africa; Egypt in northern Africa; Ethiopia and Kenya in eastern Africa; South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe in southern Africa. Households were chosen randomly in districts that are representative for key agro-climatic zones and farming systems. The data set specifies farming systems characteristics that can help inform about the importance of each system for a country’s agricultural production and its ability to cope with short- and long-term climate changes or extreme weather events. Further it informs about the location of smallholders and vulnerable systems and permits benchmarking agricultural systems characteristics. PMID:27218890

Integrating Information Networks for Collective Planetary Stewardship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Responsible behaviour resulting from climate literacy in global environmental movement is limited to policy and planning institutions in the Global South, while remaining absent for ends-user. Thus, planetary stewardship exists only at earth system boundaries where pressures sink to the local scale while ethics remains afloat. Existing citizen participation is restricted within policy spheres, appearing synonymous to enforcements in social psychology. Much, accounted reason is that existing information mechanisms operate mostly through linear exchanges between institutions and users, therefore reinforcing only hierarchical relationships. This study discloses such relationships that contribute to broad networking gaps through information demand assessment of stakeholders in a dozen development projects based in South Asia. Two parameters widely used for this purpose are: a. Feedback: Ends-user feedback to improve consumption literacy of climate sensitive resources (through consumption displays, billing, advisory services ecolabelling, sensors) and, b. Institutional Policy: Rewarding punishing to enforce desired behaviour (subsidies, taxation). Research answered: 1. Who gets the information (Equity in Information Distribution)? As existing information publishing mechanisms are designed by and for analysts, 2. How information translates to climate action Transparency of Execution)? Findings suggested that climate goals manifested in economic policy, than environmental policy, have potential clear short-term benefits and costs, and coincide with people's economic goals Also grassroots roles for responsible behaviour are empowered with presence of end user information. Barier free climate communication process and decision making is ensured among multiplicity of stakeholders with often conflicting perspectives. Research finds significance where collaboration among information networks can better translate regional policies into local action for climate adaptation and resilience capacity building.

Customer Use Cases and Analytics for Climate Data at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchey, N. A.; Brewer, M.; Houston, T.; Hollingshead, A.; Jones, N.; Dissen, J.

2017-12-01

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is the world's largest repository of climate data. Customer analytics and uses of NCEI information are critical to understanding and evolving NCEI's suite of use-inspired data and information to make them applicable to decision making. Over the past three years, NCEI's Center for Weather and Climate has made a concerted effort to: 1) Establish a system for collection of user requirements, 2) Ensure that collected information informs product area management and prioritization activities, and 3) Include user insights into future products and product versions. These process changes require a long-term commitment to climate services and success is not possible with a "build it and they will come" mentality nor with a "drop-in, drop-out" customer engagement strategy. This presentation will focus on the path necessary to get from effective user engagement, centered on collection and adjudication of user requirements, all the way through the outcomes of the changed products and services and how those have benefitted users, including economic examples.

Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

2016-01-01

Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

NASA's mission to planet Earth: Earth observing system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: global climate change; radiation, clouds, and atmospheric water; the ocean; the troposphere - greenhouse gases; land cover and the water cycle; polar ice sheets and sea level; the stratosphere - ozone chemistry; volcanoes; the Earth Observing System (EOS) - how NASA will support studies of global climate change?; research and assessment - EOS Science Investigations; EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS); EOS observations - instruments and spacecraft; a national international effort; and understanding the Earth System.

Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K.

2012-04-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks.

Geographic Information System and Geoportal «River basins of the European Russia»

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yermolaev, O. P.; Mukharamova, S. S.; Maltsev, K. A.; Ivanov, M. A.; Ermolaeva, P. O.; Gayazov, A. I.; Mozzherin, V. V.; Kharchenko, S. V.; Marinina, O. A.; Lisetskii, F. N.

2018-01-01

Geographic Information System (GIS) and Geoportal with open access «River basins of the European Russia» were implemented. GIS and Geoportal are based on the map of basins of small rivers of the European Russia with information about natural and anthropogenic characteristics, namely geomorphometry of basins relief; climatic parameters, representing averages, variation, seasonal variation, extreme values of temperature and precipitation; land cover types; soil characteristics; type and subtype of landscape; population density. The GIS includes results of spatial analysis and modelling, in particular, assessment of anthropogenic impact on river basins; evaluation of water runoff and sediment runoff; climatic, geomorphological and landscape zoning for the European part of Russia.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

2008-12-01

Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

NOAA Climate Program Office Contributions to National ESPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, W.; Huang, J.; Mariotti, A.; Archambault, H. M.; Barrie, D.; Lucas, S. E.; Mathis, J. T.; Legler, D. M.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Nierenberg, C.; Jones, H.; Cortinas, J. V., Jr.; Carman, J.

2016-12-01

NOAA is one of five federal agencies (DOD, DOE, NASA, NOAA, and NSF) which signed an updated charter in 2016 to partner on the National Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). Situated within NOAA's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) programs contribute significantly to the National ESPC goals and activities. This presentation will provide an overview of CPO contributions to National ESPC. First, we will discuss selected CPO research and transition activities that directly benefit the ESPC coupled model prediction capability, including The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal prediction system The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project to test real-time subseasonal ensemble prediction systems. Improvements to the NOAA operational Climate Forecast System (CFS), including software infrastructure and data assimilation. Next, we will show how CPO's foundational research activities are advancing future ESPC capabilities. Highlights will include: The Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) to provide the basis for predicting climate on subseasonal to decadal timescales. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) processes and predictability studies to improve understanding, modeling and prediction of the MJO. An Arctic Research Program to address urgent needs for advancing monitoring and prediction capabilities in this major area of concern. Advances towards building an experimental multi-decadal prediction system through studies on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Finally, CPO has embraced Integrated Information Systems (IIS's) that build on the innovation of programs such as the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) to develop and deliver end to end environmental information for key societal challenges (e.g. extreme heat; coastal flooding). These contributions will help the National ESPC better understand and address societal needs and decision support requirements.

Learning as change: Responding to socio-scientific issues through informal education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Lauren Brooks

Informal learning is an important venue for educating the general public about complex socio-scientific issues: intersections of scientific understanding and society. My dissertation is a multi-tiered analysis of how informal education, and particularly informal educators, can leverage learning to respond to one particular socio-scientific issue: climate change. Life-long, life-wide, and life-deep learning not only about the science of climate change, but how communities and society as a whole can respond to it in ways that are commensurate with its scale are necessary. In my three-article dissertation, I investigated the changes in practice and learning that informal educators from a natural history museum underwent in the process of implementing a new type of field trip about climate change. This study focused on inquiry-based learning principles taken on by the museum educators, albeit in different ways: learner autonomy, conversation, and deep investigation. My second article, a short literature review, makes the argument that climate change education must have goals beyond simply increasing learners' knowledge of climate science, and proposes three research-based principles for such learning: participation, relevance, and interconnectedness. These principles are argued to promote learning to respond to climate change as well as increased collective efficacy, necessary for responding. Finally, my third article is an in-depth examination of a heterogeneous network of informal educators and environmental professionals who worked together to design and implement a city-wide platform for informal climate change learning. By conceptualizing climate change learning at the level of the learning ecology, educators and learners are able to see how it can be responded to at the community level, and understand how climate change is interconnected with other scientific, natural, and social systems. I briefly discuss a different socio-scientific issue to which these principles can be applied: heritable, human manipulation of other biological entities; in other words, genetic engineering.

Climate Discovery Online Courses for Educators from NCAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S.; Ward, D. L.; Meymaris, K. K.; Johnson, R. M.; Gardiner, L.; Russell, R.

2008-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has responded to the pressing need for professional development in climate and global change sciences by creating the Climate Discovery online course series. This series was designed with the secondary geoscience educator in mind. The online courses are based on current and credible climate change science. Interactive learning techniques are built into the online course designs with assignments that encourage active participation. A key element of the online courses is the creation of a virtual community of geoscience educators who exchange ideas related to classroom implementation, student assessment, and lessons plans. Geoscience educators from around the country have participated in the online courses. The ongoing interest from geoscience educators strongly suggests that the NCAR Climate Discovery online courses are a timely and needed professional development opportunity. The intent of NCAR Climate Discovery is to positively impact teachers' professional development scientifically authentic information, (2) experiencing guided practice in conducting activities and using ancillary resources in workshop venues, (3) gaining access to standards-aligned lesson plans, kits that promote hands-on learning, and scientific content that are easily implemented in their classrooms, and (4) becoming a part of a community of educators with whom they may continue to discuss the challenges of pedagogy and content comprehension in teaching climate change in the Earth system context. Three courses make up the Climate Discovery series: Introduction to Climate Change; Earth System Science - A Climate Change Perspective; and Understanding Climate Change Today. Each course, instructed by science education specialists, combines geoscience content, information about current climate research, hands-on activities, and group discussion. The online courses use the web-based Moodle courseware system (open- source software similar to Blackboard and webCT), utilizing its features to promote dialogue as well as provide rich online content and media. A key element of the online courses is the development and support of an online learning community, an essential component in successful online courses. Interactive learning techniques are built into the course designs with assignments that encourage active participation. Educators (both formal and informal) use the courses as a venue to exchange ideas and teaching resources. A unique feature of the courses is the emphasis on hands-on activities, a hallmark of our professional development efforts. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned in the development of the three online courses and our successful recruitment and retention efforts.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Climate forecasting services: coming down from the ivory tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Caron, L. P.; Cortesi, N.; Soret, A.; Torralba, V.; Turco, M.; González Reviriego, N.; Jiménez, I.; Terrado, M.

2016-12-01

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) climate forecasts are increasingly used across a range of application areas (energy, water management, agriculture, health, insurance) through tailored services using the climate services paradigm. In this contribution we show the value of climate forecasting services through several examples of their application in the energy, reinsurance and agriculture sectors. Climate services aim at making climate information action oriented. In a climate forecasting context the task starts with the identification of climate variables, thresholds and events relevant to the users. These elements are then analysed to determine whether they can be both reliably and skilfully predicted at appropriate time scales. In this contribution we assess climate predictions of precipitation, temperature and wind indices from state-of-the-art operational multi-model forecast systems and if they respond to the expectations and requests from a range of users. This requires going beyond the more traditional assessment of monthly mean values to include assessments of global forecast quality of the frequency of warm, cold, windy and wet extremes (e.g. [1], [2]), as well as of using tools like the Euro-Atlantic weather regimes [3]. The forecast quality of extremes is generally similar to or slightly lower than that of monthly or seasonal averages, but offers a kind of information closer to what some users require. In addition to considering local climate variables, we also explore the use of large-scale climate indices, such as ENSO and NAO, that are associated with large regional synchronous variations of wind or tropical storm frequency. These indices help illustrating the relative merits of climate forecast information to users and are the cornerstone of climate stories that engage them in the co-production of climate information. [1] Doblas-Reyes et al, WIREs, 2013 [2] Pepler et al, Weather and Climate Extremes, 2015 [3] Pavan and Doblas-Reyes, Clim Dyn, 2013

Potential climate change impacts and the BLM Rio Puerco field office's transportation system : a technical report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

This report provides information about potential climate change impacts in central New Mexico and their possible implications for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Rio Puerco Field Office (RPFO) transportation network. The report considers existing...

Synthesizing late Holocene paleoclimate reconstructions: Lessons learned, common challenges, and implications for future research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.

2017-12-01

Proxy-based reconstructions provide vital information for developing histories of environmental and climate changes. Networks of spatiotemporal paleoclimate information are powerful tools for understanding dynamical processes within the global climate system and improving model-based predictions of the patterns and magnitudes of climate changes at local- to global-scales. Compiling individual paleoclimate records and integrating reconstructed climate information in the context of an ensemble of multi-proxy records, which are fundamental for developing a spatiotemporal climate data network, are hindered by challenges related to data and information accessibility, chronological uncertainty, sampling resolution, climate proxy type, and differences between depositional environments. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group has been compiling and integrating multi-proxy paleoclimate data as part of an ongoing effort to synthesize Holocene climate records from North America. The USGS North American Holocene Climate Synthesis Working Group recently completed a late Holocene hydroclimate synthesis for the North American continent using several proxy types from a range of depositional environments, including lakes, wetlands, coastal marine, and cave speleothems. Using new age-depth relationships derived from the Bacon software package, we identified century-scale patterns of wetness and dryness for the past 2000 years with an age uncertainty-based confidence rating for each proxy record. Additionally, for highly-resolved North American lake sediment records, we computed average late Holocene sediment deposition rates and identified temporal trends in age uncertainty that are common to multiple lakes. This presentation addresses strengths and challenges of compiling and integrating data from different paleoclimate archives, with a particular focus on lake sediments, which may inform and guide future paleolimnological studies.

Vulnerability-based evaluation of water supply design under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umit Taner, Mehmet; Ray, Patrick; Brown, Casey

2015-04-01

Long-lived water supply infrastructures are strategic investments in the developing world, serving the purpose of balancing water deficits compounded by both population growth and socio-economic development. Robust infrastructure design under climate change is compelling, and often addressed by focusing on the outcomes of climate model projections ('scenario-led' planning), or by identifying design options that are less vulnerable to a wide range of plausible futures ('vulnerability-based' planning). Decision-Scaling framework combines these two approaches by first applying a climate stress test on the system to explore vulnerabilities across many traces of the future, and then employing climate projections to inform the decision-making process. In this work, we develop decision scaling's nascent risk management concepts further, directing actions on vulnerabilities identified during the climate stress test. In the process, we present a new way to inform climate vulnerability space using climate projections, and demonstrate the use of multiple decision criteria to guide to a final design recommendation. The concepts are demonstrated for a water supply project in the Mombasa Province of Kenya, planned to provide domestic and irrigation supply. Six storage design capacities (from 40 to 140 million cubic meters) are explored through a stress test, under a large number climate traces representing both natural climate variability and plausible climate changes. Design outcomes are simulated over a 40-year planning period with a coupled hydrologic-water resources systems model and using standard reservoir operation rules. Resulting performance is expressed in terms of water supply reliability and economic efficiency. Ensemble climate projections are used for assigning conditional likelihoods to the climate traces using a statistical distance measure. The final design recommendations are presented and discussed for the decision criteria of expected regret, satisficing, and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).

Producing More Actionable Science Isn't the Problem; It's Providing Decision-Makers with Access to Right Actionable Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trexler, M.

2017-12-01

Policy-makers today have almost infinite climate-relevant scientific and other information available to them. The problem for climate change decision-making isn't missing science or inadequate knowledge of climate risks; the problem is that the "right" climate change actionable knowledge isn't getting to the right decision-maker, or is getting there too early or too late to effectively influence her decision-making. Actionable knowledge is not one-size-fit-all, and for a given decision-maker might involve scientific, economic, or risk-based information. Simply producing more and more information as we are today is not the solution, and actually makes it harder for individual decision-makers to access "their" actionable knowledge. The Climatographers began building the Climate Web five years ago to test the hypothesis that a knowledge management system could help navigate the gap between infinite information and individual actionable knowledge. Today the Climate Web's more than 1,500 index terms allow instant access to almost any climate change topic. It is a curated public-access knowledgebase of more than 1,000 books, 2,000 videos, 15,000 reports and articles, 25,000 news stories, and 3,000 websites. But it is also much more, linking together tens of thousands of individually extracted ideas and graphics, and providing Deep Dives into more than 100 key topics from changing probability distributions of extreme events to climate communications best practices to cognitive dissonance in climate change decision-making. The public-access Climate Web is uniquely able to support cross-silo learning, collaboration, and actionable knowledge dissemination. The presentation will use the Climate Web to demonstrate why knowledge management should be seen as a critical component of science and policy-making collaborations.

The AmeriFlux Data Activity and Data System: An Evolving Collection of Data Management Techniques, Tools, Products and Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, Thomas A; Krassovski, Misha B; Yang, Bai

2013-01-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the U.S. Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Over this period, climate change science has expanded from research focusing on basic understanding of geochemical cycles, particularly the carbon cycle, to integrated research addressing climate change impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Interests in climate change data and information worldwide have grown remarkably and, as a result, so have demands and expectations for CDIAC s data systems. To meet the growing demands, CDIAC s strategy has beenmore » to design flexible data systems using proven technologies blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. CDIAC development teams are multidisciplinary and include computer science and information technology expertise, but also scientific expertise necessary to address data quality and documentation issues and to identify data products and system capabilities needed by climate change scientists. CDIAC has learned there is rarely a single commercial tool or product readily available to satisfy long-term scientific data system requirements (i.e., one size does not fit all and the breadth and diversity of environmental data are often too complex for easy use with commercial products) and typically deploys a variety of tools and data products in an effort to provide credible data freely to users worldwide. Like many scientific data management applications, CDIAC s data systems are highly customized to satisfy specific scientific usage requirements (e.g., developing data products specific for model use) but are also designed to be flexible and interoperable to take advantage of new software engineering techniques, standards (e.g., metadata standards) and tools and to support future Earth system data efforts (e.g., ocean acidification). CDIAC has provided data management support for numerous long-term measurement projects crucial to climate change science. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We share our approaches in satisfying the challenges of delivering AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges handling climate change data, further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.« less

Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

2014-12-01

Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

Developing Climate Resilience Toolkit Decision Support Training Sectio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livezey, M. M.; Herring, D.; Keck, J.; Meyers, J. C.

2014-12-01

The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is a Federal government effort to address the U.S. President's Climate Action Plan and Executive Order for Climate Preparedness. The toolkit will provide access to tools and products useful for climate-sensitive decision making. To optimize the user experience, the toolkit will also provide access to training materials. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been building a climate training capability for 15 years. The target audience for the training has historically been mainly NOAA staff with some modified training programs for external users and stakeholders. NOAA is now using this climate training capacity for the CRT. To organize the CRT training section, we collaborated with the Association of Climate Change Officers to determine the best strategy and identified four additional complimentary skills needed for successful decision making: climate literacy, environmental literacy, risk assessment and management, and strategic execution and monitoring. Developing the climate literacy skills requires knowledge of climate variability and change, as well as an introduction to the suite of available products and services. For the development of an environmental literacy category, specific topics needed include knowledge of climate impacts on specific environmental systems. Climate risk assessment and management introduces a process for decision making and provides knowledge on communication of climate information and integration of climate information in planning processes. The strategic execution and monitoring category provides information on use of NOAA climate products, services, and partnership opportunities for decision making. In order to use the existing training modules, it was necessary to assess their level of complexity, catalog them, and develop guidance for users on a curriculum to take advantage of the training resources to enhance their learning experience. With the development of this CRT training section, NOAA has made significant progress in sharing resources with the external community.

Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile.

PubMed

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

Farmers' Options to Address Water Scarcity in a Changing Climate: Case Studies from two Basins in Mediterranean Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roco, Lisandro; Poblete, David; Meza, Francisco; Kerrigan, George

2016-12-01

Irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean areas faces tremendous challenges because of its exposure to hydroclimatic variability, increasing competition for water from different sectors, and the possibility of a climatic change. In this context, efficient management of water resources emerges as a critical issue. This requires the adoption of technological innovations, investment in infrastructure, adequate institutional arrangements, and informed decision makers. To understand farmers' perceptions and their implementation of climate change adaptation strategies with regards to water management, primary information was captured in the Limarí and Maule river basins in Chile. Farmers identified stressors for agriculture; climate change, droughts, and lack of water appeared as the most relevant stressors compared to others productive, economic, and institutional factors; revealing a rising relevance of climate related factors. While most producers perceived climate changes in recent years (92.9 %), a significant proportion (61.1 %) claim to have experienced drought, whereas only a fraction (31.9 %) have implemented a strategy to deal with this situation. Identified actions were classified in four groups: investments for water accumulation, modernization of irrigation systems, rationalization of water use, and partnership activities. Using a multinomial logit model these strategies were related to socioeconomic and productive characteristics. Results show that gender and farm size are relevant for investments, implementation and improvement of irrigation systems. For all the strategies described, access to weather information was a relevant element. The study provides empirical evidence of a recent increase in the importance assigned to climate factors by producers and adaptation options that can be supported by agricultural policy.

Academic and social integration on campus among sexual minority students: the impacts of psychological and experiential campus climate.

PubMed

Woodford, Michael R; Kulick, Alex

2015-03-01

A heterosexist campus climate can increase risk for mental health problems for sexual minority students; however, the relationship between campus climate for sexual minorities and academic outcomes remains understudied. Using a sample of sexual minority respondents extracted from a campus climate survey conducted at a large university in the Midwest, we examine relationships between multiple dimensions of psychological and experiential campus climate for sexual minorities with academic integration (academic disengagement, grade-point average [GPA]) and social integration (institutional satisfaction, acceptance on campus). We also investigate the protective role of engagement with informal academic and peer-group systems. Findings suggest campus climate affects sexual minority students' integration. In multivariate analyses, perceptions of whether lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) people could be open about their sexual identity was positively associated with acceptance on campus; personal heterosexist harassment was positively associated with academic disengagement and negatively with GPA. Students' informal academic integration (instructor relations) and informal social integration (LGB friends) demonstrated influential main effects but did not moderate any of the climate-outcome relationships. Researchers should further explore the relationships between climate and academic outcomes among sexual minority students, both collectively and among specific sub-groups, and address the role of other protective factors.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

International PV QA Task Force's Proposed Comparative Rating System for PV Modules: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wohlgemuth, J.; Kurtz, S.

The International PV Quality Assurance Task Force is developing a rating system that provides comparative information about the relative durability of PV modules. Development of accelerated stress tests that can provide such comparative information is seen as a major step toward being able to predict PV module service life. This paper will provide details of the ongoing effort to determine the format of such an overall module rating system. The latest proposal is based on using three distinct climate zones as defined in IEC 60721-2-1 for two different mounting systems. Specific stresses beyond those used in the qualification tests aremore » being developed for each of the selected climate zones.« less

Documenting Climate Models and Their Simulations

DOE PAGES

Guilyardi, Eric; Balaji, V.; Lawrence, Bryan; ...

2013-05-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now nonspecialists such as government officials, policy makers, and the general public all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. We describe a pilot community initiative to collect and make available documentation of climatemore » models and their simulations. In an initial application, a metadata repository is being established to provide information of this kind for a major internationally coordinated modeling activity known as CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). We expected that for a wide range of stakeholders, this and similar community-managed metadata repositories will spur development of analysis tools that facilitate discovery and exploitation of Earth system simulations.« less

Building Climate Literacy Through Strategic Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrin, M.; Creyts, T. T.; Bell, R. E.; Meadows, C. A.

2012-12-01

One of the challenges of developing climate science literacy is establishing the relevance of both climate science and climate change at a local community level. By developing partnerships with community-based informal science education providers, we are able to build our climate science and climate change content into existing programs. Employing a systems science approach facilitates these partnerships as our systems science program links with a range of topics, demonstrating the multiple connections between climate, our communities and our daily lives. Merging hands on activities, collaborative projects, and new technology, we encourage learning through doing by engaging participants in active exploration of climate science concepts. Many informal education venues operating locally, from large science museums to small grass-roots community groups, provide ongoing opportunities to connect with students. Through our collaborations we have worked with various types and sizes of non-classroom science providers including: the Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum "Greater Opportunities Advancing Leadership and Science" camps for high school girls, Hudson River Park Trust 'Science on the River' events, the annual New York City World Science Festival, and the AAUW's annual STEM Super Scholars Workshops among others. This range of venues has enabled us to reach various ages, backgrounds and interests advancing climate literacy in a number of forums. Major outcomes of these efforts are: (1) Building capacity with community groups: Many local organizations running community programs do not have in-house science expertise. Both science educators and local organization benefit from these collaborations. Science educators and scientists provide up to date climate science information to the community groups while these programs establish strong working relationships between our research and the local community. (2) Developing climate science literacy and lifelong learning: We have delivered climate science in a variety of ways, each designed to connect the participants with a fundamental science concept while building excitement for the topic and facilitating learning in a non-traditional setting. Our approaches range from launching teams of young people into experiments exploring glacial physics through free-choice inquiry opportunities, to enlisting undergraduate science students in working with the participants demonstrating glacial motion and measurement through engaging technology such as Kinect Xbox 360 sensors, to short single concept hands-on activities designed to deliver a specific climate 'take home' message. (3) Generating a local connection to climate science and impacts: Working with local informal education groups we connect climate topics to community-based issues and 'hot topics' such as sustainable planning, waterfront erosion, storm surge impacts, and local sea level rise projections. Partnering with community based informal education providers allows us to expand our offerings to reach a wider audience of young people, and to connect more directly with our local community. We are excited by the potential in these partnerships to connect students with climate science and develop not only a climate literate group of young people, but also lifelong science learners.

Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ghil, M.; Allen, M.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ide, K.; Kondrashov, D.; Mann, M.E.; Robertson, A.W.; Saunders, A.; Tian, Y.; Varadi, F.; Yiou, P.

2002-01-01

The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal- to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

The Pacific Northwest's Climate Impacts Group: Climate Science in the Public Interest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mantua, N.; Snover, A.

2006-12-01

Since its inception in 1995, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) (funded under NOAA's Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) Program) has become the leader in exploring the impacts of climate variability and climate change on natural and human systems in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW), specifically climate impacts on water, forest, fish and coastal resource systems. The CIG's research provides PNW planners, decision makers, resource managers, local media, and the general public with valuable knowledge of ways in which the region's key natural resources are vulnerable to changes in climate, and how this vulnerability can be reduced. The CIG engages in climate science in the public interest, conducting original research on the causes and consequences of climate variability and change for the PNW and developing forecasts and decision support tools to support the use of this information in federal, state, local, tribal, and private sector resource management decisions. The CIG's focus on the intersection of climate science and public policy has placed the CIG nationally at the forefront of regional climate impacts assessment and integrated analysis.

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari;

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

2016-09-01

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

The Impact of Ocean Observations in Seasonal Climate Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena

2010-01-01

The ocean provides the most significant memory for the climate system. Hence, a critical element in climate forecasting with coupled models is the initialization of the ocean with states from an ocean data assimilation system. Remotely-sensed ocean surface fields (e.g., sea surface topography, SST, winds) are now available for extensive periods and have been used to constrain ocean models to provide a record of climate variations. Since the ocean is virtually opaque to electromagnetic radiation, the assimilation of these satellite data is essential to extracting the maximum information content. More recently, the Argo drifters have provided unprecedented sampling of the subsurface temperature and salinity. Although the duration of this observation set has been too short to provide solid statistical evidence of its impact, there are indications that Argo improves the forecast skill of coupled systems. This presentation will address the impact these different observations have had on seasonal climate predictions with the GMAO's coupled model.

Photovoltaic failure and degradation modes

DOE PAGES

Jordan, Dirk C.; Silverman, Timothy J.; Wohlgemuth, John H.; ...

2017-01-30

The extensive photovoltaic field reliability literature was analyzed and reviewed. Future work is prioritized based upon information assembled from recent installations, and inconsistencies in degradation mode identification are discussed to help guide future publication on this subject. Reported failure rates of photovoltaic modules fall mostly in the range of other consumer products; however, the long expected useful life of modules may not allow for direct comparison. In general, degradation percentages are reported to decrease appreciably in newer installations that are deployed after the year 2000. However, these trends may be convoluted with varying manufacturing and installation quality world-wide. Modules inmore » hot and humid climates show considerably higher degradation modes than those in desert and moderate climates, which warrants further investigation. Delamination and diode/j-box issues are also more frequent in hot and humid climates than in other climates. The highest concerns of systems installed in the last 10 years appear to be hot spots followed by internal circuitry discoloration. Encapsulant discoloration was the most common degradation mode, particularly in older systems. In newer systems, encapsulant discoloration appears in hotter climates, but to a lesser degree. Lastly, thin-film degradation modes are dominated by glass breakage and absorber corrosion, although the breadth of information for thin-film modules is much smaller than for x-Si.« less

Photovoltaic failure and degradation modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Dirk C.; Silverman, Timothy J.; Wohlgemuth, John H.

The extensive photovoltaic field reliability literature was analyzed and reviewed. Future work is prioritized based upon information assembled from recent installations, and inconsistencies in degradation mode identification are discussed to help guide future publication on this subject. Reported failure rates of photovoltaic modules fall mostly in the range of other consumer products; however, the long expected useful life of modules may not allow for direct comparison. In general, degradation percentages are reported to decrease appreciably in newer installations that are deployed after the year 2000. However, these trends may be convoluted with varying manufacturing and installation quality world-wide. Modules inmore » hot and humid climates show considerably higher degradation modes than those in desert and moderate climates, which warrants further investigation. Delamination and diode/j-box issues are also more frequent in hot and humid climates than in other climates. The highest concerns of systems installed in the last 10 years appear to be hot spots followed by internal circuitry discoloration. Encapsulant discoloration was the most common degradation mode, particularly in older systems. In newer systems, encapsulant discoloration appears in hotter climates, but to a lesser degree. Lastly, thin-film degradation modes are dominated by glass breakage and absorber corrosion, although the breadth of information for thin-film modules is much smaller than for x-Si.« less

Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?

PubMed Central

Lunt, D. J.; Elderfield, H.; Pancost, R.; Ridgwell, A.; Foster, G. L.; Haywood, A.; Kiehl, J.; Sagoo, N.; Shields, C.; Stone, E. J.; Valdes, P.

2013-01-01

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10–11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled ‘Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?’, brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change. PMID:24043873

Warm climates of the past--a lesson for the future?

PubMed

Lunt, D J; Elderfield, H; Pancost, R; Ridgwell, A; Foster, G L; Haywood, A; Kiehl, J; Sagoo, N; Shields, C; Stone, E J; Valdes, P

2013-10-28

This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10-11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled 'Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?', brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.

GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

2011-12-01

GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

Communicating Urban Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, S.; Crowley, K.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Hoffstadt, R.; Labriole, M.; Shugart, E.; Steiner, M.; Climate; Urban Systems Partnership

2011-12-01

While cities cover only 2% of the Earth's surface, over 50% of the world's people live in urban environments. Precisely because of their population density, cities can play a large role in reducing or exacerbating the global impact of climate change. The actions of cities could hold the key to slowing down climate change. Urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies. However, messaging around these strategies has not been comprehensive and adaptation to climate change requires local knowledge, capacity and a high level of coordination. Unless urban populations understand climate change and its impacts it is unlikely that cities will be able to successfully implement policies that reduce anthropogenic climate change. Informal and formal educational institutions in urban environments can serve as catalysts when partnering with climate scientists, educational research groups, and public policy makers to disseminate information about climate change and its impacts on urban audiences. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is an interdisciplinary network designed to assess and meet the needs and challenges of educating urban audiences about climate change. CUSP brings together organizations in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Queens, NY and Washington, DC to forge links with informal and formal education partners, city government, and policy makers. Together this network will create and disseminate learner-focused climate education programs and resources for urban audiences that, while distinct, are thematically and temporally coordinated, resulting in the communication of clear and consistent information and learning experiences about climate science to a wide public audience. Working at a community level CUSP will bring coordinated programming directly into neighborhoods presenting the issues of global climate change in a highly local context. The project is currently exploring a number of models for community programming and this session will present early results of these efforts while engaging participants in exploring approaches to connecting urban communities and their local concerns to the issues of global climate change.

Redesigning healthcare systems to meet the health challenges associated with climate change in the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Phua, Kai-Lit

2015-01-01

In the twenty-first century, climate change is emerging as a significant threat to the health and well-being of the public through links to the following: extreme weather events, sea level rise, temperature-related illnesses, air pollution patterns, water security, food security, vector-borne infectious diseases, and mental health effects (as a result of extreme weather events and climate change-induced population displacement). This article discusses how national healthcare systems can be redesigned through changes in its components such as human resources, facilities and technology, health information system, and health policy to meet these challenges.

Precipitation Measurements From Space: Workshop report. An element of the climate observing system study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, D. (Editor); Thiele, O. W. (Editor)

1981-01-01

Global climate, agricultural uses for precipitation information, hydrological uses for precipitation, severe thunderstorms and local weather, global weather are addressed. Ground truth measurement, visible and infrared techniques, microwave radiometry and hybrid precipitation measurements, and spaceborne radar are discussed.

GIS and crop simulation modelling applications in climate change research

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The challenges that climate change presents humanity require an unprecedented ability to predict the responses of crops to environment and management. Geographic information systems (GIS) and crop simulation models are two powerful and highly complementary tools that are increasingly used for such p...

Measuring School Climate for Gauging Principal Performance: A Review of the Validity and Reliability of Publicly Accessible Measures. A Quality School Leadership Issue Brief

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clifford, Matthew; Menon, Roshni; Gangi, Tracy; Condon, Christopher; Hornung, Katie

2012-01-01

This policy brief provides principal evaluation system designers information about the technical soundness and cost (i.e., time requirements) of publicly available school climate surveys. The authors focus on the technical soundness of school climate surveys because they believe that using validated and reliable surveys as an outcomes measure can…

Assessing Flood Risk at Nuclear Power Plants with an Uncertain Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wigmosta, M. S.; Vail, L. W.

2011-12-01

In 2010 a tsunami severely damaged the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan. As a result, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission directed that a systematic and methodical review of Commission processes and regulations be performed to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission. Two of the recommendations of the Task Force created to inform the Commission were: establish a logical, systematic, and coherent regulatory framework for adequate protection that appropriately balances defense-in-depth and risk considerations and that the NRC require licensees to reevaluate and upgrade as necessary the design-basis flooding protection of structures, systems, and components for each operating reactor. These recommendations came at the same time as technical discussions about updating approaches to evaluate flood hazard were underway. These discussions included: consideration of climate nonstationarity in flood assessments; transitioning from PMP/PMF assessments to probabilistic flood analyses to better align with risk-informed decision making; and systematic consideration of combined events in flood risk analysis. There is no scientific basis to assume that shifts in long-term mean precipitation and temperature (such as is commonly derived from climate models) relate to flood probability. Flood mechanisms are often more complex and reflect climate pattern anomalies more than mean annual shifts. Instead of discounting historical data due to climatic nonstationarity, it is important to better understand the climate patterns that have triggered floods in the past and to look to climate forecasts to understand the likely changes in the frequency of those historical climate patterns with climate change. It is equally important to have a better understanding of whether climate change will result in flood-generating climate systems heretofore unknown in the particular locale. This presentation will provide a roadmap to ensuring that the flood hazards of existing and future nuclear power plants are well defined.

The National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) as a Learning System for Extreme Heat: Evolving Future Resilience from Present Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, H.; Trtanj, J.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.

2016-12-01

There is presently no consensus indicator for the effect of extreme heat on human health. At the early warning timescale, a variety of approaches to setting temperature thresholds (minimum, maximum, time-lagged) or more complex approaches (Heat Index, Thermal Comfort, etc...) for issuing alerts and warnings have been recommended by literature and implemented, leading to much heterogeneity. At longer timescales, efforts have been made to quantify potential future health outcomes using climate projections, but nonstationarity of the climate system, economy, and demography may invalidate many of the assumptions which were necessarily made in these studies. Furthermore, in our pursuit of developing the best models and indicators to represent the impacts of climate extremes, perhaps we have not paid enough attention to what makes them policy-relevant, responsive to changing assumptions, and targeted at elements that can actually be predicted. In response to this concern, a comprehensive approach to improving the impactfulness of these indicators is underway as part of the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS), which was initiated by NOAA and CDC, but has grown to include many other federal agency and non-governmental partners. NIHHIS is a framework that integrates what we know about extreme heat and health outcomes within a learning system - simultaneously informing early warning and long-term risk reduction prior to, during, and while recovering from extreme heat events. NIHHIS develops impactful evolutionary responses to climate extremes. Through ongoing regional engagements, we are applying the lessons of impact modeling studies to create learning systems in the Southwest, Northeast, Midwest, and soon other regions of the U.S. This session will provide a view of this process as it has been carried out in the Southwest region - focused on the transboundary (US-Mexico) region around El Paso, Texas, and the NIHHIS approach to indicators overall.

Integrated modeling for assessment of energy-water system resilience under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, E.; Veselka, T.; Zhou, Z.; Koritarov, V.; Mahalik, M.; Qiu, F.; Mahat, V.; Betrie, G.; Clark, C.

2016-12-01

Energy and water systems are intrinsically interconnected. Due to an increase in climate variability and extreme weather events, interdependency between these two systems has been recently intensified resulting significant impacts on both systems and energy output. To address this challenge, an Integrated Water-Energy Systems Assessment Framework (IWESAF) is being developed to integrate multiple existing or developed models from various sectors. The IWESAF currently includes an extreme climate event generator to predict future extreme weather events, hydrologic and reservoir models, riverine temperature model, power plant water use simulator, and power grid operation and cost optimization model. The IWESAF can facilitate the interaction among the modeling systems and provide insights of the sustainability and resilience of the energy-water system under extreme climate events and economic consequence. The regional case demonstration in the Midwest region will be presented. The detailed information on some of individual modeling components will also be presented in several other abstracts submitted to AGU this year.

Embedding climate change risk assessment within a governance context

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L

Climate change adaptation is increasingly being framed in the context of climate risk management. This has contributed to the proliferation of climate change vulnerability and/or risk assessments as means of supporting institutional decision-making regarding adaptation policies and measures. To date, however, little consideration has been given to how such assessment projects and programs interact with governance systems to facilitate or hinder the implementation of adaptive responses. An examination of recent case studies involving Australian local governments reveals two key linkages between risk assessment and the governance of adaptation. First, governance systems influence how risk assessment processes are conducted, by whommore » they are conducted, and whom they are meant to inform. Australia s governance system emphasizes evidence-based decision-making that reinforces a knowledge deficit model of decision support. Assessments are often carried out by external experts on behalf of local government, with limited participation by relevant stakeholders and/or civil society. Second, governance systems influence the extent to which the outputs from risk assessment activities are translated into adaptive responses and outcomes. Technical information regarding risk is often stranded by institutional barriers to adaptation including poor uptake of information, competition on the policy agenda, and lack of sufficient entitlements. Yet, risk assessments can assist in bringing such barriers to the surface, where they can be debated and resolved. In fact, well-designed risk assessments can contribute to multi-loop learning by institutions, and that reflexive problem orientation may be one of the more valuable benefits of assessment.« less

Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.

Applying Customized Climate Advisory Information to Translate Extreme Rainfall Events into Farming Options in the Sudan-Sahel of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, S.; Worou, N. O.; Sanfo, S.; Nikiema, M. P.; Boubacar, I.; Paturel, J. E.; Tondoh, E. J.

2017-12-01

In West Africa, the risk of food insecurity linked to the low productivity of small holder farming increases as a result of rainfall extremes. In its recent evolution, the rainy season in the Sudan-Sahel zone presents mixed patterns of extreme climatic events. In addition to intense rain events, the distribution of events is associated with pockets of intra-seasonal long dry spells. The negative consequences of these mixed patterns are obvious on the farm: soil water logging, erosion of arable land, dwartness and dessication of crops, and loss in production. The capacity of local farming communities to respond accordingly to rainfall extreme events is often constrained by lack of access to climate information and advisory on smart crop management practices that can help translate extreme rainfall events into farming options. The objective of this work is to expose the framework and the pre-liminary results of a scheme that customizes climate-advisory information package delivery to subsistence farmers in Bakel (Senegal), Ouahigouya & Dano (Burkina Faso) and Bolgatanga (Ghana) for sustainable family agriculture. The package is based on the provision of timely climate information (48-hours, dekadal & seasonal) embedded with smart crop management practices to explore and exploite the potential advantage of intense rainfall and extreme dry spells in millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea farming communities. It is sent via mobile phones and used on selected farms (i.e agro-climatic farm schools) on which some small on-farm infrastructure were built to alleviate negative impacts of weather. Results provide prominent insight on how co-production of weather/climate information, customized access and guidiance on its use can induce fast learning (capacity building of actors), motivation for adaptation, sustainability, potential changes in cropping system, yields and family income in the face of a rainfall extremes at local scales of Sudan-Sahel of West Africa. Keywords: Climate Information, Smart Practices, Farming Options, Agro-Climatic Farm Schools, Sudan-Sahel

Using Climate Science to Inform Local Planning: Challenges and Successes from the Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.

2014-12-01

Much of our society, including our agriculture, our dependence on natural resources, and our infrastructure, is built on the assumption that individual weather events and average conditions may vary from year to year, but over the long term the climate of a given region can be predicted based on past climate "normals". This assumption is no longer valid; today, human-induced climate change is altering average conditions as well as the risk of many types of weather extremes. Observed trends and projected future changes in mean climate and in the frequency and severity of temperature extremes, heat waves, heavy precipitation events, coastal flooding, and storms are clearly documented in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, as well as by a host of other regional impact assessments. While future projections are inherently uncertain, these assessments make one fact clear: future planning for any sector or region affected by climate change that fails to take into account long-term trends will end up with the wrong answer. This concept of non-stationarity, that future climate will differ from that experienced in the past, challenges regional planners, water managers, city managers and engineers to incorporate future climate change into present-day planning. From the perspective of scientists, translating climate projections into information that can be used by stakeholders and decision-makers presents a challenge of equal magnitude. Here, I draw on my experience working with the agriculture, ecosystem, energy, health, infrastructure, insurance, and water sectors to propose a framework for, and highlight some of the main challenges inherent to, incorporating climate information into practical, on-the-ground planning at the local to regional scale. This approach, which we have developed through working with a range of cities, states, and regions including Austin, Cambridge, California, Chicago, Delaware, the Northeast, and most recently Washington DC, is based on identifying known vulnerabilities within the systems of interest, and developing appropriate information compatible with existing planning mechanisms to ensure the relevance and utility of the climate information for increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate risks.

A Hybrid Evaluation System Framework (Shell & Web) with Standardized Access to Climate Model Data and Verification Tools for a Clear Climate Science Infrastructure on Big Data High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kunst, O.; Cubasch, U.

2014-12-01

The project 'Integrated Data and Evaluation System for Decadal Scale Prediction' (INTEGRATION) as part of the German decadal prediction project MiKlip develops a central evaluation system. The fully operational hybrid features a HPC shell access and an user friendly web-interface. It employs one common system with a variety of verification tools and validation data from different projects in- and outside of MiKlip. The evaluation system is located at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) and has direct access to the bulk of its ESGF node including millions of climate model data sets, e.g. from CMIP5 and CORDEX. The database is organized by the international CMOR standard using the meta information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets. Apache Solr is used for indexing the different data projects into one common search environment. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy to handle search tool supports users, developers and their tools to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitating the provision and usage of tools and climate data increases automatically the number of scientists working with the data sets and identify discrepancies. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a MySQL database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web-system. Therefore, plugged-in tools gain automatically from transparency and reproducibility. Furthermore, when configurations match while starting a evaluation tool, the system suggests to use results already produced by other users-saving CPU time, I/O and disk space. This study presents the different techniques and advantages of such a hybrid evaluation system making use of a Big Data HPC in climate science. website: www-miklip.dkrz.de visitor-login: guest password: miklip

A Hybrid Evaluation System Framework (Shell & Web) with Standardized Access to Climate Model Data and Verification Tools for a Clear Climate Science Infrastructure on Big Data High Performance Computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, Christopher; Illing, Sebastian; Kunst, Oliver; Ulbrich, Uwe; Cubasch, Ulrich

2015-04-01

The project 'Integrated Data and Evaluation System for Decadal Scale Prediction' (INTEGRATION) as part of the German decadal prediction project MiKlip develops a central evaluation system. The fully operational hybrid features a HPC shell access and an user friendly web-interface. It employs one common system with a variety of verification tools and validation data from different projects in- and outside of MiKlip. The evaluation system is located at the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ) and has direct access to the bulk of its ESGF node including millions of climate model data sets, e.g. from CMIP5 and CORDEX. The database is organized by the international CMOR standard using the meta information of the self-describing model, reanalysis and observational data sets. Apache Solr is used for indexing the different data projects into one common search environment. This implemented meta data system with its advanced but easy to handle search tool supports users, developers and their tools to retrieve the required information. A generic application programming interface (API) allows scientific developers to connect their analysis tools with the evaluation system independently of the programming language used. Users of the evaluation techniques benefit from the common interface of the evaluation system without any need to understand the different scripting languages. Facilitating the provision and usage of tools and climate data increases automatically the number of scientists working with the data sets and identify discrepancies. Additionally, the history and configuration sub-system stores every analysis performed with the evaluation system in a MySQL database. Configurations and results of the tools can be shared among scientists via shell or web-system. Therefore, plugged-in tools gain automatically from transparency and reproducibility. Furthermore, when configurations match while starting a evaluation tool, the system suggests to use results already produced by other users-saving CPU time, I/O and disk space. This study presents the different techniques and advantages of such a hybrid evaluation system making use of a Big Data HPC in climate science. website: www-miklip.dkrz.de visitor-login: click on "Guest"

Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

PubMed

Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

2009-07-01

There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment: Building a Framework to Track Physical and Social Indicators of Climate Change Across Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grecni, Z. N.; Keener, V. W.

2016-12-01

Assessments inform regional and local climate change governance and provide the critical scientific basis for U.S. climate policy. Despite the centrality of scientific information to public discourse and decision making, comprehensive assessments of climate change drivers, impacts, and the vulnerability of human and ecological systems at regional or local scales are often conducted on an ad hoc basis. Methods for sustained assessment and communication of scientific information are diverse and nascent. The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) is a collaborative effort to assess climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archipelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). In 2012, PIRCA released the first comprehensive report summarizing the state of scientific knowledge about climate change in the region as a technical input to the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A multi-method evaluation of PIRCA outputs and delivery revealed that the vast majority of key stakeholders view the report as extremely credible and use it as a resource. The current study will present PIRCA's approach to establishing physical and social indicators to track on an ongoing basis, starting with the Republic of the Marshall Islands as an initial location of focus for providing a cross-sectoral indicators framework. Identifying and tracking useful indicators is aimed at sustaining the process of knowledge coproduction with decision makers who seek to better understand the climate variability and change and its impacts on Pacific Island communities.

Water erosion and climate change in a small alpine catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berteni, Francesca; Grossi, Giovanna

2017-04-01

WATER EROSION AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN A SMALL ALPINE CATCHMENT Francesca Berteni, Giovanna Grossi A change in the mean and variability of some variables of the climate system is expected to affect the sediment yield of mountainous areas in several ways: for example through soil temperature and precipitation peak intensity change, permafrost thawing, snow- and ice-melt time shifting. Water erosion, sediment transport and yield and the effects of climate change on these physical phenomena are the focus of this work. The study area is a small mountainous basin, the Guerna creek watershed, located in the Central Southern Alps. The sensitivity of sediment yield estimates to a change of condition of the climate system may be investigated through the application of different models, each characterized by its own features and limits. In this preliminary analysis two different empirical mathematical models are considered: RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation; Renard et al., 1991) and EPM (Erosion Potential Method; Gavrilovic, 1988). These models are implemented in a Geographical Information System (GIS) supporting the management of the territorial database used to estimate relevant geomorphological parameters and to create different thematic maps. From one side the geographical and geomorphological information is required (land use, slope and hydrogeological instability, resistance to erosion, lithological characterization and granulometric composition). On the other side the knowledge of the weather-climate parameters (precipitation and temperature data) is fundamental as well to evaluate the intensity and variability of the erosive processes and estimate the sediment yield at the basin outlet. Therefore different climate change scenarios were considered in order to tentatively assess the impact on the water erosion and sediment yield at the small basin scale. Keywords: water erosion, sediment yield, climate change, empirical mathematical models, EPM, RUSLE, GIS, Guerna

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

An Archive of Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections for Planning Applications in the Contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Pruitt, T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P. B.

2007-12-01

Incorporating climate change information into long-term evaluations of water and energy resources requires analysts to have access to climate projection data that have been spatially downscaled to "basin-relevant" resolution. This is necessary in order to develop system-specific hydrology and demand scenarios consistent with projected climate scenarios. Analysts currently have access to "climate model" resolution data (e.g., at LLNL PCMDI), but not spatially downscaled translations of these datasets. Motivated by a common interest in supporting regional and local assessments, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and LLNL (through support from the DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory) have teamed to develop an archive of downscaled climate projections (temperature and precipitation) with geographic coverage consistent with the North American Land Data Assimilation System domain, encompassing the contiguous United States. A web-based information service, hosted at LLNL Green Data Oasis, has been developed to provide Reclamation, LLNL, and other interested analysts free access to archive content. A contemporary statistical method was used to bias-correct and spatially disaggregate projection datasets, and was applied to 112 projections included in the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset hosted by LLNL PCMDI (i.e. 16 GCMs and their multiple simulations of SRES A2, A1b, and B1 emissions pathways).

Solar heating and cooling technical data and systems analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, D. L.

1977-01-01

The research activities described herein were concentrated on the areas of economics, heating and cooling systems, architectural design, materials characteristics, climatic conditions, educational information packages, and evaluation of solar energy systems and components.

Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.

2009-12-01

Regional planning in preparation for future climate changes is rapidly gaining importance. However, compared to the global mean projections, correctly anticipating regional climate is often much more difficult, particularly with regard to hydrologic changes. The reason for the high, inherent uncertainty in location specific forecasts arises on one hand from the superposition of large internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean system on the more gradual changes. On the other hand, this problem is confounded by the fact that regional climate records are often short and therefore offer little guidance as to how an underlying trend can be identified within the noise. The use of indirect climate information (proxy records) from a host of natural archives has made significant progress recently. Based on an extended record, process studies can help reveal the regional response to changes in large scale climate that likely have to be expected. But in order to come up with robust, season and parameter specific (temperature versus moisture) climate reconstructions, comprehensive data compilations are needed that integrate proxy records of different characteristics, temporal representations, and different systematic and sampling uncertainties. Based on understanding of physical processes, and making explicit use of that knowledge, new dynamical and statistical techniques in paleoclimatology are being developed and explored. In addition to improved estimates of the past climate, the cascade of uncertainties is directly taken into account so that errors can more comprehensively be assessed. A brief overview of the problems and its potential implications for regional planning is followed by an application that demonstrates how collaboration between paleoclimatologists, climate modelers and statisticians can advance our understanding of the climate system and how agencies, businesses and individuals might be able to make better informed decisions in preparation for future climate.

Ocean Data Assimilation in Support of Climate Applications: Status and Perspectives.

PubMed

Stammer, D; Balmaseda, M; Heimbach, P; Köhl, A; Weaver, A

2016-01-01

Ocean data assimilation brings together observations with known dynamics encapsulated in a circulation model to describe the time-varying ocean circulation. Its applications are manifold, ranging from marine and ecosystem forecasting to climate prediction and studies of the carbon cycle. Here, we address only climate applications, which range from improving our understanding of ocean circulation to estimating initial or boundary conditions and model parameters for ocean and climate forecasts. Because of differences in underlying methodologies, data assimilation products must be used judiciously and selected according to the specific purpose, as not all related inferences would be equally reliable. Further advances are expected from improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information in data assimilation systems. Ultimately, data assimilation into coupled climate system components is needed to support ocean and climate services. However, maintaining the infrastructure and expertise for sustained data assimilation remains challenging.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

2013-12-01

Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near-term climate projections point to pronounced changes in fire season length, total burned area, and the frequency of extreme events across North America by 2050.

National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) Data at NASA GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce; Jasinski, Michael; Mocko, David; Kempler, Steven

2016-01-01

As part of NASA's active participation in the Interagency National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) is supporting an Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis, by using NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) capabilities. To maximize the benefit of the NCA-LDAS, on completion of planned model runs and uncertainty analysis, NASA will provide open access to all NCA-LDAS components, including input data, output fields, and indicator data, to other NCA-teams and the general public. The NCA-LDAS data will be archived at the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) and can be accessed via direct ftp, THREDDS, Mirador search and download, and Giovanni visualization and analysis system.

An analysis of specialist and non-specialist user requirements for geographic climate change information.

PubMed

Maguire, Martin C

2013-11-01

The EU EuroClim project developed a system to monitor and record climate change indicator data based on satellite observations of snow cover, sea ice and glaciers in Northern Europe and the Arctic. It also contained projection data for temperature, rainfall and average wind speed for Europe. These were all stored as data sets in a GIS database for users to download. The process of gathering requirements for a user population including scientists, researchers, policy makers, educationalists and the general public is described. Using an iterative design methodology, a user survey was administered to obtain initial feedback on the system concept followed by panel sessions where users were presented with the system concept and a demonstrator to interact with it. The requirements of both specialist and non-specialist users is summarised together with strategies for the effective communication of geographic climate change information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Extension Agents' Awareness of Climate Change in Ethiopia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abegaz, Dagmawi M.; Wims, Padraig

2015-01-01

Purpose: The fact that highly vulnerable countries like Ethiopia face far greater challenges from climate change makes agricultural adaptation a top priority. Even though the public agriculture extension system in Ethiopia plays a central role in facilitating and supporting adaptation, very limited information is available on how aware the actual…

Climate Informed Economic Instruments to Enhance Urban Water Supply Resilience to Hydroclimatological Variability and Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Carriquiry, M.; Souza Filho, F. A.

2006-12-01

Hydroclimatological variability presents acute challenges to urban water supply providers. The impact is often most severe in developing nations where hydrologic and climate variability can be very high, water demand is unmet and increasing, and the financial resources to mitigate the social effects of that variability are limited. Furthermore, existing urban water systems face a reduced solution space, constrained by competing and conflicting interests, such as irrigation demand, recreation and hydropower production, and new (relative to system design) demands to satisfy environmental flow requirements. These constraints magnify the impacts of hydroclimatic variability and increase the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change. The high economic and social costs of structural responses to hydrologic variability, such as groundwater utilization and the construction or expansion of dams, create a need for innovative alternatives. Advances in hydrologic and climate forecasting, and the increasing sophistication and acceptance of incentive-based mechanisms for achieving economically efficient water allocation offer potential for improving the resilience of existing water systems to the challenge of variable supply. This presentation will explore the performance of a system of climate informed economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on water-sensitive stakeholders. The system is comprised of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Contract and insurance parameters are linked to forecasts and the evolution of seasonal precipitation and streamflow and designed for financial and political viability. A simulation of system performance is presented based on ongoing work in Metro Manila, Philippines. The system is further evaluated as an alternative strategy to infrastructure expansion for climate change adaptation in the water resources sector.

Concept Mapping to Assess Learning and Understanding of Complexity in Courses on Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rebich-Hespanha, S.; Gautier, C.

2010-12-01

The complex nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators wishing to broaden and deepen student understanding of the climate system and its sensitivity to and impacts upon human activity. Learners have prior knowledge that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedbacks) that arise in global change science, and these existing mental models serve as the scaffold for all future learning. Because adoption of complex scientific concepts is not likely if instruction includes presentation of information or concepts that are not compatible with the learners’ prior knowledge, providing effective instruction on this complex topic requires learning opportunities that are anchored upon an evaluation of the limitations and inaccuracies of the learners’ existing understandings of the climate system. The formative evaluation that serves as the basis for planning such instruction can also be useful as a baseline against which to evaluate subsequent learning. We will present concept-mapping activities that we have used to assess students’ knowledge and understanding about global climate change in courses that utilized multiple assessment methods including presentations, writings, discussions, and concept maps. The courses in which these activities were completed use a variety of instructional approaches (including standard lectures and lab assignments and a mock summit) to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. Two instances of concept map assessment will be presented: one focused on evaluating student understanding of the major components of the climate system and their interconnections, and the other focused on student understanding of the connections between climate change and the global food system. We will discuss how concept mapping can be used to demonstrate evidence of learning and conceptual change, and also how it can be used to provide information about gaps in knowledge and misconceptions students have about the topic.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

Arctic Indicators of Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanitski, D.; Druckenmiller, M.; Fetterer, F. M.; Gerst, M.; Intrieri, J. M.; Kenney, M. A.; Meier, W.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J. C.; Trainor, S.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing unprecedented change. Indicators of change enable better decision-making at the community to policy levels. The results presented here focus on a subset of physical, biological, societal, and economic indicators of Arctic change recommended in one of a group of papers emanating from the earlier National Climate Indicators System (NCIS) work led by Kenney et al. (2016). The intent of the NCIS was to establish a "system of physical, natural, and societal indicators that communicate and inform decisions about key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness" in support of the sustained U.S. National Climate Assessment. Our analysis, guided by a tailored selection and recommendation criteria, resulted in a list of "existing" indicators, as well as those "in development", "recommended", and "aspirational". A goal of this effort is to identify a set of both lagging and leading indicators that is based on reliable and sustained data sources with known user communities. We intend for these indicators to guide decision-makers in their responses to climate change, and ideally help inform decisions of groups like the Arctic Council and U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) as they develop plans and priorities.

Satellites as Sentinels for Climate and Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Remotely-sensed data and observations are providing powerful new tools for addressing climate and environment-related human health problems through increased capabilities for monitoring, risk mapping, and surveillance of parameters useful to such problems as vector- borne and infectious diseases, air and water quality,. harmful algal blooms, W radiation, contaminant and pathogen transport in air and water, and thermal stress. Remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIs), global positioning systems (GPS), improved computation capabilities, and interdisciplinary research between the Earth and health science communities, together with local knowledge, are being combined in rich collaborative efforts resulting in more rapid problem-solving, early warning, and prevention in global climate and health issues. These collaborative efforts are enabling increased understanding of the relationships among changes in temperature, rainfall, wind, soil moisture, solar radiation, vegetation, and the patterns of extreme weather events and health issues. This increased understanding and improved information and data sharing, in turn, empowers local health and environmental decision-makers to better predict climate-related health problems, decrease vulnerability, take preventive measures, and improve response actions. This paper provides a number of recent examples of how satellites - from their unique vantage point in space - can serve as sentinels for climate and health.

Useful and Usable Climate Science: Frameworks for Bridging the Social and Physical domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buja, L.

2016-12-01

Society is transforming the Earth's system in unprecedented ways, often with significant variations across space and time. In turn, the impacts of climate change on the human system vary dramatically due to differences in cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and physical processes at the local level. The Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado addresses societal vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change through the development of frameworks and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability, and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional and global scales. CSAP relies heavily on GIS-based scientific data and knowledge systems to bridge social and physical science approaches in its five focus areas: Governance of inter-linked natural and managed resource systems. The role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change Weather, climate and global human health, GIS-based science data & knowledge systems. Regional Climate Science and Services for Adaptation Advanced methodologies and frameworks for assessing current and future risks to environmental hazards through the integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data are presented in the context of recent national and international projects on climate change and food/water security, urban carbon emissions, metropolitan extreme heat and global health. In addition, innovative CSAP international capacity building programs teaching interdisciplinary approaches for using geospatial technologies to integrate multi-scale spatial information of weather, climate change into important sectors such as disaster reduction, agriculture, tourism and society for decision-making are discussed.

Climate and Global Change: Programs and Services Reaching Public and K-12 Audiences at a National Research Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, S. Q.; Johnson, R. M.; Carbone, L.; Eastburn, T.; Munoz, R.; Lu, G.; Ammann, C.

2004-05-01

The study of climate and global change is an important on-going focal area for scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Programs overseen by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Office of Education and Outreach (UCAR-EO) help to translate NCAR's scientific programs, methodologies, and technologies, and their societal benefits to over 80,000 visitors to the NCAR Mesa Laboratory each year. This is accomplished through the implementation of exhibits, guided tours, an audiotour, programs for school groups, and a teachers' guide to exhibits which is currently in development. The Climate Discovery Exhibit unveiled in July 2003 offers visitors a visually engaging and informative overview of information, graphics, artifacts, and interactives describing the Earth system's dynamic processes that contribute to and mediate climate change, the history of our planet's changing climate, and perspectives on geographic locations and societies around the world that have potential to be impacted by a changing climate. Climate Futures, an addition to this exhibit to open in the summer of 2004, will help visitors to understand why scientists seek to model the global climate system and how information about past and current climate are used to validate models and build scenarios for Earth's future climate, while clarifying the effects of natural and human-induced contributions to these predictions. UCAR-EO further strives to enhance public understanding and to dispel misconceptions about climate change by bringing scientists' explanations to visitors who learn about atmospheric sciences while on staff-guided tours and/or while using an audiotour developed in 2003 with a grant from the National Science Foundation. With advanced reservations, a limited number of visitors may experience demonstrations of climate models in the NCAR Visualization Laboratory. An instructional module for approximately 5,000 visiting school children and a teachers guide for the Climate Discovery Exhibit is in the development and field testing phase with a goal to promote interest in and understanding of how climate change studies align with K-12 science standards. Over the next year, much of the content will become available to national audiences via the new NCAR EO web site (www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo), UCAR-EO's summer teachers workshops, and sessions at the National Science Teacher Association meetings.

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

New tools for linking human and earth system models: The Toolbox for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (THESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Kauffman, B.; Lawrence, P.

2016-12-01

Integrated analysis of questions regarding land, water, and energy resources often requires integration of models of different types. One type of integration is between human and earth system models, since both societal and physical processes influence these resources. For example, human processes such as changes in population, economic conditions, and policies govern the demand for land, water and energy, while the interactions of these resources with physical systems determine their availability and environmental consequences. We have begun to develop and use a toolkit for linking human and earth system models called the Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration and Scaling (THESIS). THESIS consists of models and software tools to translate, scale, and synthesize information from and between human system models and earth system models (ESMs), with initial application to linking the NCAR integrated assessment model, iPETS, with the NCAR earth system model, CESM. Initial development is focused on urban areas and agriculture, sectors that are both explicitly represented in both CESM and iPETS. Tools are being made available to the community as they are completed (see https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sections/tss/iam/THESIS_tools). We discuss four general types of functions that THESIS tools serve (Spatial Distribution, Spatial Properties, Consistency, and Outcome Evaluation). Tools are designed to be modular and can be combined in order to carry out more complex analyses. We illustrate their application to both the exposure of population to climate extremes and to the evaluation of climate impacts on the agriculture sector. For example, projecting exposure to climate extremes involves use of THESIS tools for spatial population, spatial urban land cover, the characteristics of both, and a tool to bring urban climate information together with spatial population information. Development of THESIS tools is continuing and open to the research community.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Successfully Integrating Climate Change Education into School System Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scallion, M.

2017-12-01

Maryland's Eastern Shore is threatened by climate change driven sea level rise. By working with school systems, rather than just with individual teachers, educators can gain access to an entire grade level of students, assuring that all students, regardless of socioeconomic background or prior coursework have an opportunity to explore the climate issue and be part of crafting community level solutions for their communities. We will address the benefits of working with school system partners to achieve a successful integration of in-school and outdoor learning by making teachers and administrators part of the process. We will explore how, through the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research Project, teachers, content supervisors and informal educators worked together to create a climate curriculum with local context that effectively meets Common Core and Next Generation Science Standards. Over the course of several weeks during the year, students engage in a series of in-class and field activities directly correlated with their science curriculum. Wetlands and birds are used as examples of the local wildlife and habitat being impacted by climate change. Through these lessons led by Pickering Creek Audubon Center educators and strengthened by material covered by classroom teachers, students get a thorough introduction to the mechanism of climate change, local impacts of climate change on habitats and wildlife, and actions they can take as a community to mitigate the effects of climate change. The project concludes with a habitat and carbon stewardship project that gives students and teachers a sense of hope as they tackle this big issue on a local scale. We'll explore how the MADE-CLEAR Informal Climate Change Education (ICCE) Community of Practice supports Delaware and Maryland environmental educators in collaboratively learning and expanding their programming on the complex issue of climate change. Participants will learn how to include climate change education as part of a larger ecological exploration, giving students and teachers local context to this global issue and memorable outdoor hands-on experiences and student driven adaptation projects.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

Global Impacts and Regional Actions: Preparing for the 1997-98 El Niño.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buizer, James L.; Foster, Josh; Lund, David

2000-09-01

It has been estimated that severe El Niño-related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997-98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997-98 El Niño was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate-observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate-sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision-making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office of Global Programs (NOAA/OGP).NOAA/OGP over the last decade has supported pilot projects in Latin America, the Caribbean, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, and Africa to improve transfer of forecast information to climate sensitive sectors, study linkages between climate and human health, and distribute climate information products in certain areas. Working with domestic and international partners, NOAA/OGP helped organize a total of 11 Climate Outlook Fora around the world during the 1997-98 El Niño. At each Outlook Forum, climatologists and meteorologists created regional, consensus-based, seasonal precipitation forecasts and representatives from climate-sensitive sectors discussed options for applying forecast information. Additional ongoing activities during 1997-98 included research programs focused on the social and economic impacts of climate change and the regional manifestations of global-scale climate variations and their effect on decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors in the United States.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.The overall intent of NOAA/OGP's activities was to make experimental forecast information broadly available to potential users, and to foster a learning process on how seasonal-to-interannual forecasts could be applied in sectors susceptible to climate variability. This process allowed users to explore the capabilities and limitations of climate forecasts currently available, and forecast producers to receive feedback on the utility of their products. Through activities in which NOAA/OGP and its partners were involved, it became clear that further application of forecast information will be aided by improved forecast accuracy and detail, creation of common validation techniques, continued training in forecast generation and application, alternate methods for presenting forecast information, and a systematic strategy for creation and dissemination of forecast products.

Report of the international workshop on quality control of monthly climate data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1993-12-31

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the US Department of Energy`s Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) cosponsored an international quality control workshop for monthly climate data, October 5--6, 1993, at NCDC. About 40 scientists from around the world participated. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss and compare various quality control methods and to draft recommendations concerning the most successful systems. The near-term goal to improve quality control of CLIMAT messages for the NCDC/WMO publication Monthly Climatic Data for the World was sucessfully met. An electronic bulletin board was established to post errorsmore » and corrections. Improved communications among Global Telecommunication System hubs will be implemented. Advanced quality control algorithms were discussed and improvements were suggested. Further data exchanges were arranged.« less

Impact of seasonality on artificial drainage discharge under temperate climate conditions

Treesearch

Ulrike Hirt; Annett Wetzig; Devandra Amatya; Marisa Matranga

2011-01-01

Artificial drainage systems affect all components of the water and matter balance. For the proper simulation of water and solute fluxes, information is needed about artificial drainage discharge rates and their response times. However, there is relatively little information available about the response of artificial drainage systems to precipitation. To address this...

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

Use of Climate Information for Decision-Making and Impacts Research: State of Our Understanding

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

SUMMARY Much of human society and its infrastructure has been designed and built on a key assumption: that future climate conditions at any given...experienced in the past. This assumption affects infrastructure design and maintenance, emergency response management, and long-term investment and planning...our scientific understanding of the climate system in a manner that incorporates user needs into the design of scientific experiments, and that

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Workshop on the Development of an Experimental Global Drought Information System (GDIS): Overview of Workshop Goals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2012-01-01

Among the key recommendations of a recent WCRP Workshop on Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate is the development of an experimental global drought information system (GDIS). The timeliness of such an effort is evidenced by the wide aITay of relevant ongoing national and international (as well as regional and continental scale) efforts to provide drought information, including the US and North American drought monitors, and various integrating activities such as GEO and the Global Drought Portal. The workshop will review current capabilities and needs, and focus on the steps necessary to develop a GDIS that will build upon the extensive worldwide investments that have already been made in developing drought monitoring (including new space-based observations), drought risk management, and climate prediction capahilities.

European monitoring systems and data for assessing environmental and climate impacts on human infectious diseases.

PubMed

Nichols, Gordon L; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C

2014-04-09

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

PubMed Central

Nichols, Gordon L.; Andersson, Yvonne; Lindgren, Elisabet; Devaux, Isabelle; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden. PMID:24722542

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

CUAHSI Hydrologic Information Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maidment, D.; Zaslavsky, I.; Tarboton, D.; Piasecki, M.; Goodall, J.

2006-12-01

The Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc (CUAHSI) has a Hydrologic Information System (HIS) project, which is supported by NSF to develop infrastructure and services to support the advance of hydrologic science in the United States. This paper provides an overview of the HIS project. A set of web services called WaterOneFlow is being developed to provide better access to water observations data (point measurements of streamflow, water quality, climate and groundwater levels) from government agencies and individual investigator projects. Successful partnerships have been created with the USGS National Water Information System, EPA Storet and the NCDC Climate Data Online. Observations catalogs have been created for stations in the measurement networks of each of these data systems so that they can be queried in a uniform manner through CUAHSI HIS, and data delivered from them directly to the user via web services. A CUAHSI Observations Data Model has been designed for storing individual investigator data and an equivalent set of web services created for that so that individual investigators can publish their data onto the internet in the same format CUAHSI is providing for the federal agency data. These data will be accessed through HIS Servers hosted at the national level by CUAHSI and also by research centers and academic departments for regional application of HIS. An individual user application called HIS Analyst will enable individual hydrologic scientists to access the information from the network of HIS Servers. The present focus is on water observations data but later development of this system will include weather and climate grid information, GIS data, remote sensing data and linkages between data and hydrologic simulation models.

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

Are implicit policy assumptions about climate adaptation trying to push drinking water utilities down an impossible path?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klasic, M. R.; Ekstrom, J.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, Z.

2017-12-01

Extreme events such as wildfires, droughts, and flooding are projected to be more frequent and intense under a changing climate, increasing challenges to water quality management. To protect and improve public health, drinking water utility managers need to understand and plan for climate change and extreme events. This three year study began with the assumption that improved climate projections were key to advancing climate adaptation at the local level. Through a survey (N = 259) and interviews (N = 61) with California drinking water utility managers during the peak of the state's recent drought, we found that scientific information was not a key barrier hindering adaptation. Instead, we found that managers fell into three distinct mental models based on their interaction with, perceptions, and attitudes, towards scientific information and the future of water in their system. One of the mental models, "modeled futures", is a concept most in line with how climate change scientists talk about the use of information. Drinking water utilities falling into the "modeled future" category tend to be larger systems that have adequate capacity to both receive and use scientific information. Medium and smaller utilities in California, that more often serve rural low income communities, tend to fall into the other two mental models, "whose future" and "no future". We show evidence that there is an implicit presumption that all drinking water utility managers should strive to align with "modeled future" mental models. This presentation questions this assumption as it leaves behind many utilities that need to adapt to climate change (several thousand in California alone), but may not have the technical, financial, managerial, or other capacity to do so. It is clear that no single solution or pathway to drought resilience exists for water utilities, but we argue that a more explicit understanding and definition of what it means to be a resilient drinking water utility is necessary. By highlighting, then questioning, the assumption that all utility managers should strive to have "modeled future" mentalities, this presentation seeks to foster an open dialogue around which pathway or pathways are most feasible for supporting drinking water utility managers planning for climate change.

Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

2017-12-01

Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. Ultimately, this integrative and iterative approach yielded counter-intuitive and surprising findings, and resulted in a more tractable set of possible futures for resource management planning.

An approach to designing a national climate service

PubMed Central

Miles, E. L.; Snover, A. K.; Whitely Binder, L. C.; Sarachik, E. S.; Mote, P. W.; Mantua, N.

2006-01-01

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams. PMID:17158218

An approach to designing a national climate service.

PubMed

Miles, E L; Snover, A K; Whitely Binder, L C; Sarachik, E S; Mote, P W; Mantua, N

2006-12-26

Climate variability and change are considerably important for a wide range of human activities and natural ecosystems. Climate science has made major advances during the last two decades, yet climate information is neither routinely useful for nor used in planning. What is needed is a mechanism, a national climate service (NCS), to connect climate science to decision-relevant questions and support building capacity to anticipate, plan for, and adapt to climate fluctuations. This article contributes to the national debate for an NCS by describing the rationale for building an NCS, the functions and services it would provide, and how it should be designed and evaluated. The NCS is most effectively achieved as a federal interagency partnership with critically important participation by regional climate centers, state climatologists, the emerging National Integrated Drought Information System, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Sciences Assessment (RISA) teams in a sustained relationship with a wide variety of stakeholders. Because the NCS is a service, and because evidence indicates that the regional spatial scale is most important for delivering climate services, given subnational geographical/geophysical complexity, attention is focused on lessons learned from the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group's 10 years of experience, the first of the NOAA RISA teams.

A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty.

Probabilistic empirical prediction of seasonal climate: evaluation and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Eden, J.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.

2017-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a new evaluation of an established empirical system used to predict seasonal climate across the globe. Forecasts for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure are produced by the KNMI Probabilistic Empirical Prediction (K-PREP) system every month and disseminated via the KNMI Climate Explorer (climexp.knmi.nl). K-PREP is based on multiple linear regression and built on physical principles to the fullest extent with predictive information taken from the global CO2-equivalent concentration, large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and regional-scale information. K-PREP seasonal forecasts for the period 1981-2016 will be compared with corresponding dynamically generated forecasts produced by operational forecast systems. While there are many regions of the world where empirical forecast skill is extremely limited, several areas are identified where K-PREP offers comparable skill to dynamical systems. We discuss two key points in the future development and application of the K-PREP system: (a) the potential for K-PREP to provide a more useful basis for reference forecasts than those based on persistence or climatology, and (b) the added value of including K-PREP forecast information in multi-model forecast products, at least for known regions of good skill. We also discuss the potential development of stakeholder-driven applications of the K-PREP system, including empirical forecasts for circumboreal fire activity.

Climate and Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The Role and Usability of Seasonal Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, Roger S.; Redmond, Kelly T.

1997-03-01

The Pacific Northwest is dependent on the vast and complex Columbia River system for power production, irrigation, navigation, flood control, recreation, municipal and industrial water supplies, and fish and wildlife habitat. In recent years Pacific salmon populations in this region, a highly valued cultural and economic resource, have declined precipitously. Since 1980, regional entities have embarked on the largest effort at ecosystem management undertaken to date in the United States, primarily aimed at balancing hydropower demands with salmon restoration activities. It has become increasingly clear that climatically driven fluctuations in the freshwater and marine environments occupied by these fish are an important influence on population variability. It is also clear that there are significant prospects of climate predictability that may prove advantageous in managing the water resources shared by the long cast of regional interests. The main thrusts of this study are 1) to describe the climate and management environments of the Columbia River basin, 2) to assess the present degree of use and benefits of available climate information, 3) to identify new roles and applications made possible by recent advances in climate forecasting, and 4) to understand, from the point of view of present and potential users in specific contexts of salmon management, what information might be needed, for what uses, and when, where, and how it should be provided. Interviews were carried out with 32 individuals in 19 organizations involved in salmon management decisions. Primary needs were in forecasting runoff volume and timing, river transit times, and stream temperatures, as much as a year or more in advance. Most respondents desired an accuracy of 75% for a seasonal forecast. Despite the significant influence of precipitation and its subsequent hydrologic impacts on the regional economy, no specific use of the present climate forecasts was uncovered. Understanding the limitations to information use forms a major component of this study. The complexity of the management environment, the lack of well-defined linkages among potential users and forecasters, and the lack of supplementary background information relating to the forecasts pose substantial barriers to future use of forecasts. Recommendations to address these problems are offered. The use of climate information and forecasts to reduce the uncertainty inherent in managing large systems for diverse needs bears significant promise.

An Object-Based Approach to Evaluation of Climate Variability Projections and Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.

2017-12-01

Evaluations of the performance of earth system model predictions and projections are of critical importance to enhance usefulness of these products. Such evaluations need to address specific concerns depending on the system and decisions of interest; hence, evaluation tools must be tailored to inform about specific issues. Traditional approaches that summarize grid-based comparisons of analyses and models, or between current and future climate, often do not reveal important information about the models' performance (e.g., spatial or temporal displacements; the reason behind a poor score) and are unable to accommodate these specific information needs. For example, summary statistics such as the correlation coefficient or the mean-squared error provide minimal information to developers, users, and decision makers regarding what is "right" and "wrong" with a model. New spatial and temporal-spatial object-based tools from the field of weather forecast verification (where comparisons typically focus on much finer temporal and spatial scales) have been adapted to more completely answer some of the important earth system model evaluation questions. In particular, the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool and its temporal (three-dimensional) extension (MODE-TD) have been adapted for these evaluations. More specifically, these tools can be used to address spatial and temporal displacements in projections of El Nino-related precipitation and/or temperature anomalies, ITCZ-associated precipitation areas, atmospheric rivers, seasonal sea-ice extent, and other features of interest. Examples of several applications of these tools in a climate context will be presented, using output of the CESM large ensemble. In general, these tools provide diagnostic information about model performance - accounting for spatial, temporal, and intensity differences - that cannot be achieved using traditional (scalar) model comparison approaches. Thus, they can provide more meaningful information that can be used in decision-making and planning. Future extensions and applications of these tools in a climate context will be considered.

Assessing fit, interplay, and scale: Aligning governance and information for improved water management in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Dilling, L.

2011-12-01

Water managers have long experienced the challenges of managing water resources in a variable climate. However, climate change has the potential to reshape the experiential landscape by, for example, increasing the intensity and duration of droughts, shifting precipitation timing and amounts, and changing sea levels. Given the uncertainty in evaluating potential climate risks as well as future water availability and water demands, scholars suggest water managers employ more flexible and adaptive science-based management to manage uncertainty (NRC 2009). While such an approach is appropriate, for adaptive science-based management to be effective both governance and information must be concordant across three measures: fit, interplay and scale (Young 2002)(Note 1). Our research relies on interviews of state water managers and related experts (n=50) and documentary analysis in five U.S. states to understand the drivers and constraints to improving water resource planning and decision-making in a changing climate using an assessment of fit, interplay and scale as an evaluative framework. We apply this framework to assess and compare how water managers plan and respond to current or anticipated water resource challenges within each state. We hypothesize that better alignment between the data and management framework and the water resource problem improves water managers' facility to understand (via available, relevant, timely information) and respond appropriately (through institutional response mechanisms). In addition, better alignment between governance mechanisms (between the scope of the problem and identified appropriate responses) improves water management. Moreover, because many of the management challenges analyzed in this study concern present day issues with scarcity brought on by a combination of growth and drought, better alignment of fit, interplay, and scale today will enable and prepare water managers to be more successful in adapting to climate change impacts in the long-term. Note 1: For the purposes of this research, the problem of fit deals with the level of concordance between the natural and human systems while interplay involves how institutional arrangements interact both horizontally and vertically. Lastly, scale considers both spatial and temporal alignment of the physical systems and management structure. For example, to manage water resources effectively in a changing climate suggests having information that informs short-term and long-term changes and having institutional arrangements that seek understanding across temporal scales and facilitate responses based on information available (Young 2002).

Geographic information systems applications for climate change decision-making : Peer exchange summary report, Atlanta, Georgia, September 26-27, 2011

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-30

On September 26-27, 2011, the FHWA's Office of Planning sponsored a 1.5 day peer exchange focusing on the use of GIS to support transportation related climate change decisions. This report provides overviews of the presentations given at the peer exc...

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review.

PubMed

Bai, Li; Morton, Lindsay Carol; Liu, Qiyong

2013-03-09

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public.

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public. PMID:23497420

Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

2016-12-01

While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

Hands-on approach to teaching Earth system sciences using a information-computational web-GIS portal "Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Gorbatenko, Valentina; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2014-05-01

A problem of making education relevant to the workplace tasks is a key problem of higher education because old-school training programs are not keeping pace with the rapidly changing situation in the professional field of environmental sciences. A joint group of specialists from Tomsk State University and Siberian center for Environmental research and Training/IMCES SB RAS developed several new courses for students of "Climatology" and "Meteorology" specialties, which comprises theoretical knowledge from up-to-date environmental sciences with practical tasks. To organize the educational process we use an open-source course management system Moodle (www.moodle.org). It gave us an opportunity to combine text and multimedia in a theoretical part of educational courses. The hands-on approach is realized through development of innovative trainings which are performed within the information-computational platform "Climate" (http://climate.scert.ru/) using web GIS tools. These trainings contain practical tasks on climate modeling and climate changes assessment and analysis and should be performed using typical tools which are usually used by scientists performing such kind of research. Thus, students are engaged in n the use of modern tools of the geophysical data analysis and it cultivates dynamic of their professional learning. The hands-on approach can help us to fill in this gap because it is the only approach that offers experience, increases students involvement, advance the use of modern information and communication tools. The courses are implemented at Tomsk State University and help forming modern curriculum in Earth system science area. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants numbers 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

2016-11-01

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.

PubMed

Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-13

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).

Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

2018-06-01

Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George

2017-07-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical data sets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy-economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns and socio-economic development trajectories. Here we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drive significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land use and carbon cycle projections for the twenty-first century. We find that exposure of human-appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid-range forcing scenario. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system--demonstrated here--are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy-economic models to ESMs used to date.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE PAGES

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; ...

2017-06-12

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. We show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks inmore » energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We also find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Furthermore, the feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated here are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.« less

Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.

PubMed

Degen, C; Kettner, S E; Fischer, H; Lohse, J; Funke, J; Schwieren, C; Goeschl, T; Schröder, J

2014-08-01

Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies.

The NASA NEESPI Data Portal: Products, Information, and Services

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Suhung; Leptoukh, Gregory; Loboda, Tatiana; Csiszar, Ivan; Romanov, Peter; Gerasimov, Irina

2008-01-01

Studies have indicated that land cover and use changes in Northern Eurasia influence global climate system. However, the procedures are not fully understood and it is challenging to understand the interactions between the land changes in this region and the global climate. Having integrated data collections form multiple disciplines are important for studies of climate and environmental changes. Remote sensed and model data are particularly important die to sparse in situ measurements in many Eurasia regions especially in Siberia. The NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) NEESPI data portal has generated infrastructure to provide satellite remote sensing and numerical model data for atmospheric, land surface, and cryosphere. Data searching, subsetting, and downloading functions are available. ONe useful tool is the Web-based online data analysis and visualization system, Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure), which allows scientists to assess easily the state and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in Northern Eurasia and their interactions with global climate system. Recently, we have created a metadata database prototype to expand the NASA NEESPI data portal for providing a venue for NEESPI scientists fo find the desired data easily and leveraging data sharing within NEESPI projects. The database provides product level information. The desired data can be found through navigation and free text search and narrowed down by filtering with a number of constraints. In addition, we have developed a Web Map Service (WMS) prototype to allow access data and images from difference data resources.

The Economic Value of Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2012-12-01

While demonstrating the economic value of science is challenging, it can be more direct for some Earth observations. For example, suppose a climate science mission can yield decisive information on climate change within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) provides a standard for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, stipulating uncertainty in climate sensitivity, using discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate response (DICE Optimal), and a strong response (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we would switch from BAU to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain also depends on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The resolving power of a climate observing system cannot exceed climate system natural variability. All climate observations add noise to natural variability caused by observing limitations, including calibration errors and space/time sampling uncertainty. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can advance the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. We present illustrative results comparing the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change and cloud feedback (i.e. climate sensitivity uncertainty). While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to an improved climate observing system, since societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of CLARREO in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars. Among the noteworthy conclusions are (1) switching to either the DICE optimal or Stern emissions paths makes only a modest difference in the VOI of CLARREO, (2) raising the trigger value from 0.2C to 0.3C/decade, increases the VOI of CLARREO, while increasing the total NPV of climate damages, and (3) the choice of discount rate affects the VOI by a factor ~ 5. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically in regards to the level of robustness and flexibility in the selected strategy. This work will equip practitioners and decision makers with an example of a structured process for decision making under climate uncertainty that can be scaled as needed to the problem at hand. This presentation builds further on another submitted abstract "Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning" by Jeuken et al.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Shared Knowledge for Decision-making on Environment and Health Issues in the Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

This paper will describe a remote sensing and GIs-based system to bring indigenous traditional knowledge together with contemporary scientific knowledge to address impacts resulting from changes in climate, environment, weather and pollution in the Arctic. As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities continue to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This system is being designed to bring together remotely sensed, indigenous and other data and observations for analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest (e.g., snow cover, rainfall, temperature, ice conditions, vegetation, infrastructure, fires). A description of the system and its components as well as a preliminary application of the system in the Arctic will be presented.

Are Global In-Situ Ocean Observations Fit-for-purpose? Applying the Framework for Ocean Observing in the Atlantic.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visbeck, M.; Fischer, A. S.; Le Traon, P. Y.; Mowlem, M. C.; Speich, S.; Larkin, K.

2015-12-01

There are an increasing number of global, regional and local processes that are in need of integrated ocean information. In the sciences ocean information is needed to support physical ocean and climate studies for example within the World Climate Research Programme and its CLIVAR project, biogeochemical issues as articulated by the GCP, IMBER and SOLAS projects of ICSU-SCOR and Future Earth. This knowledge gets assessed in the area of climate by the IPCC and biodiversity by the IPBES processes. The recently released first World Ocean Assessment focuses more on ecosystem services and there is an expectation that the Sustainable Development Goals and in particular Goal 14 on the Ocean and Seas will generate new demands for integrated ocean observing from Climate to Fish and from Ocean Resources to Safe Navigation and on a healthy, productive and enjoyable ocean in more general terms. In recognition of those increasing needs for integrated ocean information we have recently launched the Horizon 2020 AtlantOS project to promote the transition from a loosely-coordinated set of existing ocean observing activities to a more integrated, more efficient, more sustainable and fit-for-purpose Atlantic Ocean Observing System. AtlantOS takes advantage of the Framework for Ocean observing that provided strategic guidance for the design of the project and its outcome. AtlantOS will advance the requirements and systems design, improving the readiness of observing networks and data systems, and engaging stakeholders around the Atlantic. AtlantOS will bring Atlantic nations together to strengthen their complementary contributions to and benefits from the internationally coordinated Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) and the Blue Planet Initiative of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). AtlantOS will fill gaps of the in-situ observing system networks and will ensure that their data are readily accessible and useable. AtlantOS will demonstrate the utility of integrating in-situ and remotely sensed Earth observations to produce information products supporting a wide range of sectors. AtlantOS will support activities to share best practice, integrate data streams and promote the standardization of in-situ observations. AtlantOS will promote network integration, optimization and new technologies.

Upper Colorado River Basin Climate Effects Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belnap, Jayne; Campbell, Donald; Kershner, Jeff

2011-01-01

The Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) Climate Effects Network (CEN) is a science team established to provide information to assist land managers in future decision making processes by providing a better understanding of how future climate change, land use, invasive species, altered fire cycles, human systems, and the interactions among these factors will affect ecosystems and the services they provide to human communities. The goals of this group are to (1) identify science needs and provide tools to assist land managers in addressing these needs, (2) provide a Web site where users can access information pertinent to this region, and (3) provide managers technical assistance when needed. Answers to the team's working science questions are intended to address how interactions among climate change, land use, and management practices may affect key aspects of water availability, ecosystem changes, and societal needs within the UCRB.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

The Community Earth System Model-Polar Climate Working Group and the status of CESM2.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bailey, D. A.; Holland, M. M.; DuVivier, A. K.

2017-12-01

The Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) is a consortium of scientists who are interested in modeling and understanding the climate in the Arctic and the Antarctic, and how polar climate processes interact with and influence climate at lower latitudes. Our members come from universities and laboratories, and our interests span all elements of polar climate, from the ocean depths to the top of the atmosphere. In addition to conducting scientific modeling experiments, we are charged with contributing to the development and maintenance of the state-of-the-art sea ice model component (CICE) used in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). A recent priority for the PCWG has been to come up with innovative ways to bring the observational and modeling communities together. This will allow for more robust validation of climate model simulations, the development and implementation of more physically-based model parameterizations, improved data assimilation capabilities, and the better use of models to design and implement field experiments. These have been informed by topical workshops and scientific visitors that we have hosted in these areas. These activities will be discussed and information on how the better integration of observations and models has influenced the new version of the CESM, which is due to be released in late 2017, will be provided. Additionally, we will address how enhanced interactions with the observational community will contribute to model developments and validation moving forward.

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

CARICOF - The Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook Forum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

2013-04-01

Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) are viewed as a critical building block in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The GFCS seeks to extend RCOFs to all vulnerable regions of the world such as the Caribbean, of which the entire population is exposed to water- and heat-related natural hazards. An RCOF is initially intended to identify gaps in information and technical capability; facilitate research cooperation and data exchange within and between regions, and improve coordination within the climate forecasting community. A focus is given on variations in climate conditions on a seasonal timescale. In this view, the relevance of a Caribbean RCOF (CARICOF) is the following: while the seasonality of the climate in the Caribbean has been well documented, major gaps in knowledge exist in terms of the drivers in the shifts of amplitude and phase of seasons (as evidenced from the worst region-wide drought period in recent history during 2009-2010). To address those gaps, CARICOF has brought together National Weather Services (NWSs) from 18 territories under the coordination of the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), to produce region-wide, consensus, seasonal climate outlooks since March 2012. These outlooks include tercile rainfall forecasts, sea and air surface temperature forecasts as well as the likely evolution of the drivers of seasonal climate variability in the region, being amongst others the El Niño Southern Oscillation or tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea temperatures. Forecasts for both the national-scale forecasts made by the NWSs and CIMH's regional-scale forecast amalgamate output from several forecasting tools. These currently include: (1) statistical models such as Canonical Correlation Analysis run with the Climate Predictability Tool, providing tercile rainfall forecasts at weather station scale; (2) a global outlooks published by the WMO appointed Global Producing Centres (GPCs). Indications are that the current seasonal forecasting system used by CARICOF has produced reliable outlooks than previously available. Nevertheless, through its forum platform, areas for further development are continuously being defined, which are then implemented through efficient information exchanges between and hands-on training of forecasters. Finally, the disaster research and emergency management communities have shown that effective early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards and pathways for action. CARICOF is to address this issue by designing the outputs of the seasonal climate outlooks such that they can then effectively feed into an early warning information system of seasonal climate variability related hazards to its constituent countries' and territories major socio-economic sectors.

Urbanism, climate change and health: systems approaches to governance.

PubMed

Capon, Anthony G; Synnott, Emma S; Holliday, Sue

2009-01-01

Effective action on climate change health impacts and vulnerability will require systems approaches and integrated policy and planning responses from a range of government agencies. Similar responses are needed to address other complex problems, such as the obesity epidemic. Local government, with its focus on the governance of place, will have a key role in responding to these convergent agendas. Industry can also be part of the solution - indeed it must be, because it has a lead role in relevant sectors. Understanding the co-benefits for health of climate mitigation actions will strengthen the case for early action. There is a need for improved decision support tools to inform urban governance. These tools should be based on a systems approach and should incorporate a spatial perspective.

Climate Modeling and Analysis with Decision Makers in Mind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Jagannathan, K.; Calvin, K. V.; Lamarque, J. F.; Ullrich, P. A.

2016-12-01

There is a growing need for information about future climate conditions to support adaptation planning across a wide range of sectors and stakeholder communities. However, our principal tools for understanding future climate - global Earth system models - were not developed with these user needs in mind, nor have we developed transparent methods for evaluating and communicating the credibility of various climate information products with respect to the climate characteristics that matter most to decision-makers. Several recent community engagements have identified a need for "co-production" of knowledge among stakeholders and scientists. Here we highlight some of the barriers to communication and collaboration that must be overcome to improve the dialogue among researchers and climate adaptation practitioners in a meaningful way. Solutions to this challenge are two-fold: 1) new institutional arrangements and collaborative mechanisms designed to improve coordination and understanding among communities, and 2) a research agenda that explicitly incorporates stakeholder needs into model evaluation, development, and experimental design. We contrast the information content in global-scale model evaluation exercises with that required for in specific decision contexts, such as long-term agricultural management decisions. Finally, we present a vision for advancing the science of model evaluation in the context of predicting decision-relevant hydroclimate regime shifts in North America.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

Modeling soil organic carbon stocks and changes in Spain using the GEFSOC system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge; Easter, Mark; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Paustian, Keith

2010-05-01

Currently, there is little information about soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Spain. To date the effects of land-use and soil management on SOC stocks in Spain have been evaluated in experimental fields under certain soil and climate conditions. However, these field experiments do not account for the spatial variability in management, cropping systems and soil and climate characteristics that exist in the whole territory. More realistic approaches like ecosystem-level dynamic simulation systems linked to geographic information systems (GIS) allow better assessments of SOC stocks at a regional or national level. The Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system was recently built for this purpose (Milne et al., 2007) and it incorporates three widely used models for estimating SOC dynamics: (a) the Century ecosystem model; (b) the RothC soil C decomposition model; and (c) the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) method for assessing soil C at regional scales. We modeled 9.5 Mha in northeast Spain using the GEFSOC system to predict SOC stocks and changes comprising: pasture, forest, cereal-fallow, cereal monoculture, orchards, rice, irrigated land and grapes and olives. The spatial distribution of the different land use categories and their change over time was obtained from the European Corine database and from Spanish census data on land use from 1926 to 2007. At the same time, current and historical management information was collected from different sources in order to have a fairly well picture of changes in land use and management for this area. Soil parameters needed by the system were obtained from the European soil map (1 km x 1 km) and climate data was produced by the Meteorology State Agency (Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Environs of Spain). The SOC stocks simulated were validated with SOC values from the European SOC map and from other national studies. Modeled SOC results suggested that spatial-based approaches are crucial for quantify SOC stocks and changes in Spain.

A systems-based approach to transform climate education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

2011-12-01

The USAPI has a population of about 1,800,000 people spread across 4.9 million square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Islands are characterized by a multitude of indigenous cultures and languages. English is the common language of instruction in all jurisdictions, but is not the language spoken at home for most students outside of Hawai'i. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. PCEP has developed a regional network, tools, and an emerging plan to systemically transform K-14 climate education in the USAPI. More than 50 organizations and networks have joined the partnership. These partners include all of the region's state departments of education, major universities, and community colleges, and a wide range of local partners, particularly conservation organizations. One of PCEP's major tools is general, multidisciplinary K-14 climate science education framework that organizes major underlying concepts and skills within appropriate grade-span progressions. This framework is based largely upon prior national science and climate literacy work and the National Research Council's recent document "A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas." The PCEP climate education framework has an Earth System Science foundation that is directly applicable in all locations, and it also has orientations that are particularly relevant to the USAPI context. PCEP is working with the Micronesia Conservation Trust and The Nature Conservancy to combine the climate education work with local community climate adaptation projects. This work combines the PCEP climate education framework with the Micronesia Challenge community training plans and materials, particularly the Pacific-oriented community booklet "Adapting to a Changing Climate." Combining pre-college education with community climate adaptation has the potential to yield major synergistic benefits for both efforts. Another key PCEP tool is an interactive web-based environment (http://pcep.dsp.wested.org) that interlinks the region's locations, organizations and people with information about climate science and climate impacts. This system enables the region's diverse stakeholders to access and contribute to the same information pool, and to collectively develop, and disseminate our work. This web-based environment can be configured for other climate education projects or regions.

Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

PubMed

Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

2015-01-01

Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

University of Rhode Island Regional Earth Systems Center

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rothstein, Lewis; Cornillon, P.

The primary objective of this program was to establish the URI Regional Earth System Center (“Center”) that would enhance overall societal wellbeing (health, financial, environmental) by utilizing the best scientific information and technology to achieve optimal policy decisions with maximum stakeholder commitment for energy development, coastal environmental management, water resources protection and human health protection, while accelerating regional economic growth. The Center was to serve to integrate existing URI institutional strengths in energy, coastal environmental management, water resources, and human wellbeing. This integrated research, educational and public/private sector outreach Center was to focus on local, state and regional resources. Themore » centerpiece activity of the Center was in the development and implementation of integrated assessment models (IAMs) that both ‘downscaled’ global observations and interpolated/extrapolated regional observations for analyzing the complexity of interactions among humans and the natural climate system to further our understanding and, ultimately, to predict the future state of our regional earth system. The Center was to begin by first ‘downscaling’ existing global earth systems management tools for studying the causes of local, state and regional climate change and potential social and environmental consequences, with a focus on the regional resources identified above. The Center would ultimately need to address the full feedbacks inherent in the nonlinear earth systems by quantifying the “upscaled” impacts of those regional changes on the global earth system. Through an interacting suite of computer simulations that are informed by observations from the nation’s evolving climate observatories, the Center activities integrates climate science, technology, economics, and social policy into forecasts that will inform solutions to pressing issues in regional climate change science, ‘green economy’ investment and climate policy. These project objectives were designed as part of a 5-year program, which would have constituted the initial phase for the establishment of the Center. Almost immediately (i.e. before receiving even the first year of funding) we were informed that we would not be receiving any funding beyond the initial phase; one year. This seriously impacted our ability to deliver on our objectives and, with that, a re-scoping of the Center priorities was designed to fit the 1-year constraints on funding. It was decided that, given the Center’s emphasis on building IAMs, the best way to proceed was to first focus on one particularly important component of the IAM – a natural sciences model that would be useful for research and forecasting of the circualation/ecology/biogeochemistry of RI’s coastal waters. We have succeeded on that necessarily more limited objective, as we will describe below.« less

Phenology research for natural resource management in the United States.

PubMed

Enquist, Carolyn A F; Kellermann, Jherime L; Gerst, Katharine L; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J

2014-05-01

Natural resource professionals in the United States recognize that climate-induced changes in phenology can substantially affect resource management. This is reflected in national climate change response plans recently released by major resource agencies. However, managers on-the-ground are often unclear about how to use phenological information to inform their management practices. Until recently, this was at least partially due to the lack of broad-based, standardized phenology data collection across taxa and geographic regions. Such efforts are now underway, albeit in very early stages. Nonetheless, a major hurdle still exists: phenology-linked climate change research has focused more on describing broad ecological changes rather than making direct connections to local to regional management concerns. To help researchers better design relevant research for use in conservation and management decision-making processes, we describe phenology-related research topics that facilitate "actionable" science. Examples include research on evolution and phenotypic plasticity related to vulnerability, the demographic consequences of trophic mismatch, the role of invasive species, and building robust ecological forecast models. Such efforts will increase phenology literacy among on-the-ground resource managers and provide information relevant for short- and long-term decision-making, particularly as related to climate response planning and implementing climate-informed monitoring in the context of adaptive management. In sum, we argue that phenological information is a crucial component of the resource management toolbox that facilitates identification and evaluation of strategies that will reduce the vulnerability of natural systems to climate change. Management-savvy researchers can play an important role in reaching this goal.

The Communication Strategy of NASA's Earth Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simmon, R.; Ward, K.; Riebeek, H.; Allen, J.; Przyborski, P.; Scott, M.; Carlowicz, M. J.

2010-12-01

Climate change is a complex, multi-disciplinary subject. Accurately conveying this complexity to general audiences, while still communicating the basic facts, is challenging. Our approach is to combine climate change information with a wide range of Earth system science topics, illustrated by satellite imagery and data visualizations. NASA's Earth Observatory web site (earthobservatory.nasa.gov) uses the broad range of NASA's remote sensing technologies, data, and research to communicate climate change science. We serve two primary audiences: the "attentive public" --people interested in and willing to seek out information about science, technology, and the environment--and media. We cover the breadth of Earth science, with information about climate change integrated with stories about weather, geology, oceanography, and solar flares. Current event-driven imagery is used as a hook to draw readers. We then supply links to supplemental information, either about current research or the scientific basics. We use analogies, carefully explain jargon or acronyms, and build narratives which both attract readers and make information easier to remember. These narratives are accompanied by primers on topics like energy balance or the water cycle. Text is carefully integrated with illustrations and state-of-the-art data visualizations. Other site features include a growing list of climate questions and answers, addressing common misconceptions about global warming and climate change. Maps of global environmental parameters like temperature, rainfall, and vegetation show seasonal change and long-term trends. Blogs from researchers in the field provide a look at the day-to-day process of science. For the media, public domain imagery is supplied at full resolution and links are provided to primary sources.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Climate trends and projections for the Andean Altiplano and strategies for adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdivia, C.; Thibeault, J.; Gilles, J. L.; García, M.; Seth, A.

2013-04-01

Climate variability and change impact production in rainfed agricultural systems of the Bolivian highlands. Maximum temperature trends are increasing for the Altiplano. Minimum temperature increases are significant in the northern region, and decreases are significant in the southern region. Producers' perceptions of climate hazards are high in the central region, while concerns with changing climate and unemployment are high in the north. Similar high-risk perceptions involve pests and diseases in both regions. Altiplano climate projections for end-of-century highlights include increases in temperature, extreme event frequency, change in the timing of rainfall, and reduction of soil humidity. Successful adaptation to these changes will require the development of links between the knowledge systems of producers and scientists. Two-way participatory approaches to develop capacity and information that involve decision makers and scientists are appropriate approaches in this context of increased risk, uncertainty and vulnerability.

Recharge the Rain: Community Resilience Through STEM Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkening, B.; Shipek, C.

2017-12-01

Starting in January 2017, Recharge the Rain moves sixth through twelfth grade teachers, students and the public through a continuum from awareness, to knowledge gain, to conceptual understanding, to action; building community resiliency to hazards associated with increased temperatures, drought and flooding in Arizona. Watershed Management Group with Arizona Project WET are utilizing NOAA assets, experts from the National Weather Service and Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), and Pima County hazard mitigation plan and planning tools to inform citizens and galvanize their commitment to building a community, resilient to the effects of a warming climate. In the first of four years, the project is 1) developing climate-literacy curriculum with 16 Tucson-area teachers that incorporates systems-thinking and increases understanding of earth systems, weather and climate, 2) training teachers and community docents in water harvesting practices and citizen-science data collection, 3) laying the framework for the development of rainwater harvesting engineering design curriculum, 4) involving Tucson community members in water harvesting principles through project implementation workshops, special events, and tours. In years two through four, the project will build resiliency to the effects of climate threats by 1) installing student-designed rainwater harvesting systems, 2) providing community tours of schoolyard systems to educate the public, 3) expanding the program to incorporate curriculum use in Phoenix-area teachers' classrooms and 4) finalizing a replicable model for other communities facing similar threats. What are the lessons learned after one year of Recharge the Rain? How can these lessons be used to inform this project and other projects in building resilient communities?

The Las Vegas Sustainability Atlas: Modeling Place-based Interactions and Implications in the Las Vegas Valley Bioregion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ego, H.; McCown, K.; Saghafi, N.; Gross, E.; Hunter, W.; Zawarus, P.; Gann, A.; Piechota, T. C.

2014-12-01

Las Vegas, Nevada, with 2 million residents and 40 million annual visitors, is one of the driest metropolitan environments of its size in the world. The metro imports nearly all of its resources, including energy, water and food. Rapid population increases, drought, and temperature increases due to climate change create challenges for planning resilient systems in the Las Vegas Valley. Because of its growth rate, aridity, Las Vegas, Nevada is a significant and relevant region for the study of the water, energy, food and climate nexus. Cities in the United States and the world are seeing increasing trends in urbanization and water scarcity. How does the water-energy-climate-food nexus affect each metropolitan area? How can this complex information be used for resiliency planning? How can it be related to the public, so they can understand the issues in a way that makes them meaningful participants in the planning process? The topic of our presentation is a 'resiliency atlas.' The atlas is a place-based model tested in Las Vegas to explore bioregional distinctiveness of the water-energy-climate-food nexus, including regional transportation systems. The atlas integrates the systems within a utilitarian organization of information. Systems in this place-based model demonstrate how infrastructure services are efficiently provided for the Las Vegas Valley population. This resiliency atlas can clarify how the nexus applies to place; and how it can be used to spur geographically germane adaption strategies. In the Las Vegas Valley, climate change (drought and high sustained temperatures) and population affect water, energy, and food systems. This clarity of a place based model can help educate the public about the resilience of their place, and facilitate and organize the planning process in the face of uncertainty.

Can role-play with interactive simulations enhance climate change knowledge, affect and intent to act?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Fracassi, E. P.; Franck, T.; Kapmeier, F.; Kurker, V.; Jones, A.; Rath, K.

2017-12-01

The strong scientific consensus about the reality and risks of anthropogenic climate change stands in stark contrast to widespread confusion and complacency among the public. Many efforts to close that gap, grounded in the information deficit model of risk communication, provide scientific information on climate change through reports and presentations. However, research shows that showing people research does not work: the gap between scientific and public understanding of climate change remains wide. Tools that are rigorously grounded in the science and motivate action on climate change are urgently needed. Here we assess the impact of one such tool, an interactive, role-play simulation, World Climate. Participants take the roles of delegates to the UN climate negotiations and are challenged to create an agreement limiting warming to no more than 2°C. The C-ROADS climate simulation model then provides participants with immediate feedback about the expected impacts of their decisions. Participants use C-ROADS to explore the climate system and use the results to refine their negotiating positions, learning about climate change while experiencing the social dynamics of negotiations and decision-making. Pre- and post-survey results from 21 sessions in eight nations showed significant gains in participants' climate change knowledge, affective engagement, intent to take action, and desire to learn. Contrary to the deficit model, gains in participants' desire to learn more and intention to act were associated with gains in affective engagement, particularly feelings of urgency and hope, but not climate knowledge. Gains were just as strong among participants who oppose government regulation, suggesting the simulation's potential to reach across political divides. Results indicate that simulations like World Climate offer a climate change communication tool that enables people to learn and feel for themselves, which together have the potential to motivate action informed by science.

Urban Flood Management with Integrated Inland-River System in Seoul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y. I.; Kim, J. S.; Yuk, J. M.

2015-12-01

Global warming and climate change have caused significant damage and loss of life worldwide. The pattern of natural disasters has gradually diversified and their frequency is increasing. The impact of climate change on flood risk in urban rivers is of particular interest because these areas are typically densely populated. The occurrence of urban river flooding due to climate change not only causes significant loss of life and property but also causes health and social problems. It is therefore necessary to develop a scientific urban flood management system to cope with and reduce the impacts of climate change, including flood damage. In this study, we are going to introduce Integrated Inland-River Flood Analysis System in Seoul to conduct predictions on flash rain or short-term rainfall by using radar and satellite information and perform prompt and accurate prediction on the inland flooded areas. In addition, this urban flood management system can be used as a tool for decision making of systematic disaster prevention through real-time monitoring.

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curry, Judith

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatorymore » environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.« less

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

Shared Knowledge for Addressing Impacts of Land Use Transitions on Reindeer Husbandry in Northern Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, N.; Yurchak, B.; Sleptsov, Y.; Turi, J. M.

2004-12-01

Reindeer husbandry in Northern Russia is an economic activity with a special cultural dimension of utmost importance to the indigenous peoples. Climate changes with warmer temperatures are creating significant problems now in the Arctic for the reindeer herds. These climate factors, industrial development, and the recent transition of Russia to a market economy have resulted in a nearly complete disruption of any system of supply of goods and services and health care to indigenous peoples. In turn, this has caused rapidly deteriorating health and living conditions in the indigenous reindeer herder communities. To try to address some of these issues, a NASA-reindeer herder partnership, called Reindeer Mapper, has been initiated which is establishing a system to bring indigenous traditional and local knowledge together with scientific and engineering knowledge, remote sensing and information technologies to create a more powerful information base for addressing these environmental, climate, industrial, political, and business problems. Preliminary results from the Reindeer Mapper pilot project will be presented including a special information-sharing communications system for the Reindeer Mapper project (a private intranet system), several NASA data sets useful to the herders including SAR and Landsat imagery, local knowledge of herd distributions, ground-based data, and weather observations. Results will also be presented from the first NASA-reindeer herder science and indigenous knowledge summer camp for children of reindeer herders from the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

Beyond Climate Scenarios: Advancing from Changes in the Mean to a Better Understanding of Physical Processes to Enhance Stakeholder Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.; Ammann, C. M.

2017-12-01

Great strides have been made within the climate sciences community to make Global Climate Model (GCM) output and their results as meaningful as possible to the broad community of stakeholders that might benefit from this information. Regardless of these good intentions, the fact remains that most data from GCMs are viewed as being highly uncertain and thus not actionable for water resources planning. The most common use of GCM data is informing projected future climate by use of a mean change, primarily for temperature, given the generally greater confidence in this variable. In contrast, precipitation is viewed as highly uncertain, primarily because it has not validated well against observed precipitation climatologies at local and regional levels. Simple perturbations to historical mean temperature and precipitation sequences are not as complex as using direct GCM outputs and have fewer analytical requirements. Mean climate change information can still give valuable information to water managers, providing meaningful insights and sign posts into future vulnerabilities and is an approach that is arguably deemed more actionable. These temperature and precipitation sign posts can be monitored and used as indicators when certain actions become necessary and/or until there are improvements in actionable climate science information. Recent advances in regional climate modeling (RCM), particularly those run at very high resolution and are cloud resolving, show promise in advancing our understanding of the interaction among climate variables at the regional level. Thus, in addition to exploring how changes in the mean climate (e.g. 2oC warming) might impact a water system, this bottom-up approach makes use of carefully constructed regional climate experiments that are conducted, for example, under conditions of a warmer atmosphere that can hold more moisture. One can then explore what happens to, for example, rain-snow partitioning at various elevations across a snow dominated basin, what happens to coastal rainfall intensities when ocean temperatures are warmer in the early spring, or how might the daily temperature differential (tmin/max) change?

Techniques of remote sensing and GIS as tools for visualizing impact of climate change-induced flood in the southern African region.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study employs remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data to visualize the impact of climate change caused by flooding in the Southern African region in order to assist decision makers’ plans for future occurrences. In pursuit of this objective, this study uses Digital Elevat...

Development of an Irrigation Scheduling Tool for the High Plains Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulski, M.; Hubbard, K. G.; You, J.

2009-12-01

The High Plains Regional Climate Center (HPRCC) at the University of Nebraska is one of NOAA’s six regional climate centers in the U.S. Primary objectives of the HPRCC are to conduct applied climate research, engage in climate education and outreach, and increase the use and availability of climate information by developing value-added products. Scientists at the center are engaged in utilizing regional weather data to develop tools that can be used directly by area stakeholders, particularly for agricultural sectors. A new study is proposed that will combine NOAA products (short-term forecasts and seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation) with existing capabilities to construct an irrigation scheduling tool that can be used by producers in the region. This tool will make use of weather observations from the regional mesonet (specifically the AWDN, Automated Weather Data Network) and the nation-wide relational database and web portal (ACIS, Applied Climate Information System). The primary benefit to stakeholders will be a more efficient use of water and energy resources owing to the reduction of uncertainty in the timing of irrigation.

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

PubMed Central

Meehl, Gerald A.

2017-01-01

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483866

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

PubMed

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate Literacy: Supporting Teacher Professional Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, N.; Ledley, T. S.; Dunlap, C.; Bardar, E.; Youngman, B.; Ellins, K. K.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2012-12-01

Confronting the Challenges of Climate Literacy (CCCL) is an NSF-funded (DRK-12) project that includes curriculum development, teacher professional development, teacher leadership development, and research on student learning, all directed at high school teachers and students. The project's evaluation efforts inform and guide all major components of the project. The research effort addresses the question of what interventions are most effective in helping high school students grasp the complexities of the Earth system and climate processes, which occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The curriculum unit includes three distinct but related modules: Climate and the Cryosphere; Climate, Weather, and the Biosphere; and Climate and the Carbon Cycle. Climate-related themes that cut across all three modules include the Earth system, with the complexities of its positive and negative feedback loops; the range of temporal and spatial scales at which climate, weather, and other Earth system processes occur; and the recurring question, "How do we know what we know about Earth's past and present climate?" which addresses proxy data and scientific instrumentation. The professional development component of the project includes online science resources to support the teaching of the curriculum modules, summer workshops for high school teachers, and a support system for developing the teacher leaders who plan and implement those summer workshops. When completed, the project will provide a model high school curriculum with online support for implementing teachers and a cadre of leaders who can continue to introduce new teachers to the resource. This presentation will introduce the curriculum and the university partnerships that are key to the project's success, and describe how the project addresses the challenge of helping teachers develop their understanding of climate science and their ability to convey climate-related concepts articulated in the Next Generation Science Standards to their students. We will also describe the professional development and support system to develop teacher leaders and explain some of the challenges that accompany this approach of developing teacher leaders in the area of climate literacy.

U.S. Federal Agency Implementation Overviews.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Library Hi Tech, 1995

1995-01-01

Describes roles of eight federal agencies in the Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS) that will gather information concerning natural resources, agriculture and forestry, climate, earth science and geophysics, oceanography, defense issues, energy and atmospheric concerns, land management, environmental pollution, aeronautics and…

Libraries on the MOVE.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edgar, Jim; And Others

1986-01-01

Presents papers from Illinois State Library and Shawnee Library System's "Libraries on the MOVE" conference focusing on how libraries can impact economic/cultural climate of an area. Topics addressed included information services of rural libraries; marketing; rural library development; library law; information access; interagency…

Vegetation Health and Productivity Indicators for Sustained National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M. O.; Running, S. W.

2014-12-01

The National Climate Assessment process is developing a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public. Implementing a 14 year record of Gross and Net Primary Productivity (GPP/NPP) derived from the NASA EOS MODIS satellite sensor we demonstrate how these products can serve as Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health National Climate Indicators for implementation in sustained National Climate Assessments. The NPP product combines MODIS vegetation data with daily global meteorology to calculate annual growth of all plant material at 1 sq. km resolution. NPP anomalies identify regions with above or below average plant growth that may result from climate fluctuations and can inform carbon source/sink dynamics, agricultural and forestry yield measures, and response to wildfire or drought conditions. The GPP product provides a high temporal resolution (8-day) metric of vegetation growth which can be used to monitor short-term vegetation response to extreme events and implemented to derive vegetation phenology metrics; growing season start, end, and length, which can elucidate land cover and regionally specific vegetation responses to a changing climate. The high spatial resolution GPP and NPP indicators can also inform and clarify responses seen from other proposed Pilot Indicators such as forest growth/productivity, land cover, crop production, and phenology. The GPP and NPP data are in continuous production and will be sustained into the future with the next generation satellite missions. The long-term Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health Indicators are ideal for use in sustained National Climate Assessments, providing regionally specific responses to a changing climate and complete coverage at the national scale.

Changing precipitation in western Europe, climate change or natural variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart

2017-04-01

Multi-model RCM-GCM ensembles provide high resolution climate projections, valuable for among others climate impact assessment studies. While the application of multiple models (both GCMs and RCMs) provides a certain robustness with respect to model uncertainty, the interpretation of differences between ensemble members - the combined result of model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system - is not straightforward. Natural variability is intrinsic to the climate system, and a potentially large source of uncertainty in climate change projections, especially for projections on the local to regional scale. To quantify the natural variability and get a robust estimate of the forced climate change response (given a certain model and forcing scenario), large ensembles of climate model simulations of the same model provide essential information. While for global climate models (GCMs) a number of such large single model ensembles exists and have been analyzed, for regional climate models (RCMs) the number and size of single model ensembles is limited, and the predictability of the forced climate response at the local to regional scale is still rather uncertain. We present a regional downscaling of a 16-member single model ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at a resolution of 0.11 degrees (˜12km), similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. This 16-member ensemble was generated by the GCM EC-EARTH, which was downscaled with the RCM RACMO for the period 1951-2100. This single model ensemble has been investigated in terms of the ensemble mean response (our estimate of the forced climate response), as well as the difference between the ensemble members, which measures natural variability. We focus on the response in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation (seasonal maxima and extremes with a return period up to 20 years) for the near to far future. For most precipitation indices we can reliably determine the climate change signal, given the applied model chain and forcing scenario. However, the analysis also shows how limited the information in single ensemble members is on the local scale forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming when the forced response has emerged from natural variability. Analysis and application of multi-model ensembles like EURO-CORDEX should go hand-in-hand with single model ensembles, like the one presented here, to be able to correctly interpret the fine-scale information in terms of a forced signal and random noise due to natural variability.

Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops respectively the most. The mechanism of dissemination of the forecast information has been identified and agreed as local radio/FM, mobile telephoning to community leader and displaying and daily updating the forecast information in community hoarding boards.

NASA's Climate Data Services Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McInerney, M.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Webster, W. P.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of the Earth's processes is based on a combination of observational data records and mathematical models. The size of NASA's space-based observational data sets is growing dramatically as new missions come online. However a potentially bigger data challenge is posed by the work of climate scientists, whose models are regularly producing data sets of hundreds of terabytes or more. It is important to understand that the 'Big Data' challenge of climate science cannot be solved with a single technological approach or an ad hoc assemblage of technologies. It will require a multi-faceted, well-integrated suite of capabilities that include cloud computing, large-scale compute-storage systems, high-performance analytics, scalable data management, and advanced deployment mechanisms in addition to the existing, well-established array of mature information technologies. It will also require a coherent organizational effort that is able to focus on the specific and sometimes unique requirements of climate science. Given that it is the knowledge that is gained from data that is of ultimate benefit to society, data publication and data analytics will play a particularly important role. In an effort to accelerate scientific discovery and innovation through broader use of climate data, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Office of Computational and Information Sciences and Technology has embarked on a determined effort to build a comprehensive, integrated data publication and analysis capability for climate science. The Climate Data Services (CDS) Initiative integrates people, expertise, and technology into a highly-focused, next-generation, one-stop climate science information service. The CDS Initiative is providing the organizational framework, processes, and protocols needed to deploy existing information technologies quickly using a combination of enterprise-level services and an expanding array of cloud services. Crucial to its effectiveness, the CDS Initiative is developing the technical expertise to move new information technologies from R&D into operational use. This combination enables full, end-to-end support for climate data publishing and data analytics, and affords the flexibility required to meet future and unanticipated needs. Current science efforts being supported by the CDS Initiative include IPPC, OBS4MIP, ANA4MIPS, MERRA II, National Climate Assessment, the Ocean Data Assimilation project, NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and the RECOVER Burned Area Emergency Response decision support system. Service offerings include an integrated suite of classic technologies (FTP, LAS, THREDDS, ESGF, GRaD-DODS, OPeNDAP, WMS, ArcGIS Server), emerging technologies (iRODS, UVCDAT), and advanced technologies (MERRA Analytic Services, MapReduce, Ontology Services, and the CDS API). This poster will describe the CDS Initiative, provide details about the Initiative's advanced offerings, and layout the CDS Initiative's deployment roadmap.

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were performed in the PMIP3 project. The proxy data syntheses consist either of raw pollen data or of normally distributed climate data from preprocessed proxy records. Future extensions of our method contain the inclusion of other proxy types (transfer functions), the implementation of other spatial interpolation techniques, the use of age uncertainties, and the extension to spatio-temporal reconstructions of the last deglaciation. Our work is part of the PalMod project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF).

Development of the virtual research environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of global climate change impacts on the regional environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Fazliev, Alexander

2017-04-01

Description and the first results of the Russian Science Foundation project "Virtual computational information environment for analysis, evaluation and prediction of the impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of a selected region" is presented. The project is aimed at development of an Internet-accessible computation and information environment providing unskilled in numerical modelling and software design specialists, decision-makers and stakeholders with reliable and easy-used tools for in-depth statistical analysis of climatic characteristics, and instruments for detailed analysis, assessment and prediction of impacts of global climate change on the environment and climate of the targeted region. In the framework of the project, approaches of "cloud" processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets will be developed on the technical platform of the Russian leading institution involved in research of climate change and its consequences. Anticipated results will create a pathway for development and deployment of thematic international virtual research laboratory focused on interdisciplinary environmental studies. VRE under development will comprise best features and functionality of earlier developed information and computing system CLIMATE (http://climate.scert.ru/), which is widely used in Northern Eurasia environment studies. The Project includes several major directions of research listed below. 1. Preparation of geo-referenced data sets, describing the dynamics of the current and possible future climate and environmental changes in detail. 2. Improvement of methods of analysis of climate change. 3. Enhancing the functionality of the VRE prototype in order to create a convenient and reliable tool for the study of regional social, economic and political consequences of climate change. 4. Using the output of the first three tasks, compilation of the VRE prototype, its validation, preparation of applicable detailed description of climate change in Western Siberia, and dissemination of the Project results. Results of the first stage of the Project implementation are presented. This work is supported by the Russian Science Foundation grant No16-19-10257.

Recognizing and exploring the right questions with climate data: An example of better understanding ENSO in climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Brown, B.; Kalb, C. P.; Bullock, R.; Buja, L.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.; Halley-Gotway, J.; Kaatz, L.; Yates, D. N.

2017-12-01

Coordinated, multi-model climate change projection archives have already led to a flourishing of new climate impact applications. Collections and online tools for the computation of derived indicators have attracted many non-specialist users and decision-makers and facilitated for them the exploration of potential future weather and climate changes on their systems. Guided by a set of standardized steps and analyses, many can now use model output and determine basic model-based changes. But because each application and decision-context is different, the question remains if such a small collection of standardized tools can faithfully and comprehensively represent the critical physical context of change? We use the example of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, the largest and most broadly recognized mode of variability in the climate system, to explore the difference in impact contexts between a quasi-blind, protocol-bound and a flexible, scientifically guided use of climate information. More use oriented diagnostics of the model-data as well as different strategies for getting data into decision environments are explored.

Successfully Engaging Family and Student Audiences in Climate Science Workshops in an Informal Learning Venue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeFrancis, G.; Haynes, R.; Schroer, K.

2017-12-01

The Montshire Museum of Science, a regional science center serving families, teachers, and students in rural Vermont and New Hampshire, has been actively engaged in in climate literacy initiatives for over 10 years. The Museum's visitor evaluation data shows that before audiences can be engaged in conversations around climate change, they need to be introduced to the underlying earth processes that drive climate, and to the nature of how climate science is done. Through this work, the Museum has developed a suite of climate science programs that can be incorporated in informal science programming at museums, science centers, and libraries, and in the formal K-8 classroom environment. Front-end and formative evaluation data was used in the program design, and summative evaluation showed an increase in concept understanding in the topic presented. Family science and student workshops developed focused on Albedo and the Earth's energy budget, properties and characteristics of sea ice, sediment cores and ice cores to study changes in the climate over time, and the geography of the polar regions. We found that successful climate literacy learning experiences require meaningful hands-on, inquiry-based activities focused on a single earth process, and leads to an increase in science talk and conversation about climate change between the program instructor and audience members as learners begin to understand how these processes interact in the Earth's climate system.

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system for regional scale climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Yasutaka; Hara, Masayuki; Fujita, Mikiko; Ma, Xieyao; Kimura, Fujio

2013-04-01

Regional scale climate change projections play an important role in assessments of influences of global warming and include statistical (SD) and dynamical downscaling (DD) approaches. One of DD methods is developed basing on the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007) in this study. In general, DD uses regional climate model (RCM) with lateral boundary data. In PGW method, the climatological mean difference estimated by GCMs are added to the objective analysis data (ANAL), and the data are used as the lateral boundary data in the future climate simulations. The ANAL is also used as the lateral boundary conditions of the present climate simulation. One of merits of the PGW method is that influences of biases of GCMs in RCM simulations are reduced. However, the PGW method does not treat climate changes in relative humidity, year-to-year variation, and short-term disturbances. The developing new downscaling method is named as the incremental dynamical downscaling and analysis system (InDDAS). The InDDAS treat climate changes in relative humidity and year-to-year variations. On the other hand, uncertainties of climate change projections estimated by many GCMs are large and are not negligible. Thus, stochastic regional scale climate change projections are expected for assessments of influences of global warming. Many RCM runs must be performed to make stochastic information. However, the computational costs are huge because grid size of RCM runs should be small to resolve heavy rainfall phenomena. Therefore, the number of runs to make stochastic information must be reduced. In InDDAS, climatological differences added to ANAL become statistically pre-analyzed information. The climatological differences of many GCMs are divided into mean climatological difference (MD) and departures from MD. The departures are analyzed by principal component analysis, and positive and negative perturbations (positive and negative standard deviations multiplied by departure patterns (eigenvectors)) with multi modes are added to MD. Consequently, the most likely future states are calculated with climatological difference of MD. For example, future states in cases that temperature increase is large and small are calculated with MD plus positive and negative perturbations of the first mode.

Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

2016-10-01

Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

Climate Change and Water Working Group - User Needs to Manage Hydrclimatic Risk from Days to Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raff, D. A.; Brekke, L. D.; Werner, K.; Wood, A.; White, K. D.

2012-12-01

The Federal Climate Change Water Working Group (CCAWWG) provides engineering and scientific collaborations in support of water management. CCAWWG objectives include building working relationships across federal science and water management agencies, provide a forum to share expertise and leverage resources, develop education and training forums, to work with water managers to understand scientific needs and to foster collaborative efforts across the Federal and non-Federal water management and science communities to address those needs. Identifying and addressing water management needs has been categorized across two major time scales: days to a decade and multi-decadal, respectively. These two time periods are termed "Short-Term" and "Long-Term" in terms of the types of water management decisions they support where Short-Term roughly correlates to water management operations and Long-Term roughly correlates to planning activities. This presentation will focus on portraying the identified water management user needs across these two time periods. User Needs for Long-Term planning were identified in the 2011 Reclamation and USACE "Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Resources Planning and Management: User Needs for Improving Tools and Information." User needs for Long-Term planning are identified across eight major categories: Summarize Relevant Literature, Obtain Climate Change Information, Make Decisions About How to Use the Climate Change Information, Assess Natural Systems Response, Assess Socioeconomic and Institutional Response, Assess System Risks and Evaluate Alternatives, Assess and Characterize Uncertainties, and Communicating Results and Uncertainties to Decisionmakers. User Needs for Short-Term operations are focused on needs relative to available or desired monitoring and forecast products from the hydroclimatic community. These needs are presenting in the 2012 USACE, Reclamation, and NOAA - NWS "Short-Term Water Management Decisions: User Needs for Improved Climate, Weather, and Hydrologic Information." Identified needs are presented in four categories: Monitoring, Forecasting, Understanding on Product Relationships and Utilization in Water Management, and Information Services Enterprise. These needs represent everything from continuation and enhancement of in situ monitoring products such as USGS water gages and precipitation networks to supporting product maintenance and evolution to accommodate newly developed technologies.

Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses (Oenothera).

PubMed

Evans, Margaret E K; Hearn, David J; Theiss, Kathryn E; Cranston, Karen; Holsinger, Kent E; Donoghue, Michael J

2011-07-01

Competing evolutionary forces shape plant breeding systems (e.g. inbreeding depression, reproductive assurance). Which of these forces prevails in a given population or species is predicted to depend upon such factors as life history, ecological conditions, and geographical context. Here, we examined two such predictions: that self-compatibility should be associated with the annual life history or extreme climatic conditions. We analyzed data from a clade of plants remarkable for variation in breeding system, life history and climatic conditions (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia, Onagraceae). We used a phylogenetic comparative approach and Bayesian or hybrid Bayesian tests to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. Geographic information system (GIS)-based climate data and ecological niche modeling allowed us to quantify climatic conditions. Breeding system and reproductive life span are not correlated in Anogra and Kleinia. Instead, self-compatibility is associated with the extremes of temperature in the coldest part of the year and precipitation in the driest part of the year. In the 60 yr since this pattern was anticipated, this is the first demonstration of a relationship between the evolution of self-compatibility and climatic extremes. We discuss possible explanations for this pattern and possible implications with respect to anthropogenic climate change. © 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ontology development for provenance tracing in National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Zheng, J. G.; Goldstein, J.; Duggan, B.; Xu, J.; Du, C.; Akkiraju, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Tilmes, C.; Fox, P. A.

2013-12-01

The periodical National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) [1] produces reports about findings of global climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States. Those findings are of great public and academic concerns and are used in policy and management decisions, which make the provenance information of findings in those reports especially important. The USGCRP is developing a Global Change Information System (GCIS), in which the NCA reports and associated provenance information are the primary records. We were modeling and developing Semantic Web applications for the GCIS. By applying a use case-driven iterative methodology [2], we developed an ontology [3] to represent the content structure of a report and the associated provenance information. We also mapped the classes and properties in our ontology into the W3C PROV-O ontology [4] to realize the formal presentation of provenance. We successfully implemented the ontology in several pilot systems for a recent National Climate Assessment report (i.e., the NCA3). They provide users the functionalities to browse and search provenance information with topics of interest. Provenance information of the NCA3 has been made structured and interoperable by applying the developed ontology. Besides the pilot systems we developed, other tools and services are also able to interact with the data in the context of the 'Web of data' and thus create added values. Our research shows that the use case-driven iterative method bridges the gap between Semantic Web researchers and earth and environmental scientists and is able to be deployed rapidly for developing Semantic Web applications. Our work also provides first-hand experience for re-using the W3C PROV-O ontology in the field of earth and environmental sciences, as the PROV-O ontology is recently ratified (on 04/30/2013) by the W3C as a recommendation and relevant applications are still rare. [1] http://www.globalchange.gov [2] Fox, P., McGuinness, D.L., 2008. TWC Semantic Web Methodology. Accessible at: http://tw.rpi.edu/web/doc/TWC_SemanticWebMethodology [3] https://scm.escience.rpi.edu/svn/public/projects/gcis/trunk/rdf/schema/GCISOntology.ttl [4] http://www.w3.org/TR/prov-o/

A Prototype Indicators System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Gerst, M.; Lloyd, A.; Wolfinger, J. F.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.; Pouyat, R. V.

2015-12-01

Indicators are observations or calculations that are used to systematically report or forecast social and biophysical conditions over time. When the purpose of indicators is to, in part, provide complex scientific information that is understood by non-scientists and included in decision processes, the choice of indicators requires a structured process that includes co-production among a range of actors, including scientists, decision-makers, and a range of stakeholders. Here we describe recommendations on a vision and a prototype created for an indicators system, we term the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). The goal of the NCIS is to create a system of physical, natural, and societal indicators to communicate and inform decisions about climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The process of generating the indicator system involved input from over 200 subject-matter experts. Organized into 13 teams, experts created conceptual models of their respective sectors to generate an initial recommended set of indicators. A subset of indicators, which could be immediately implemented, were prototyped for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) a Federal program that coordinates and supports integration of global change research across the government. USGCRP reviewed the recommendations (Kenney et al., 2014) and prototypes provided by the scientific experts, and recently launched 14 indicators as proof-of-concept in support of a sustained National Climate Assessment and to solicit feedback from the users. Social science research is currently being undertaken in order to evaluate how well the prototype indicators communicate science to non-scientists, the usability of indicator system portal by scientists and decision-makers, and the development of information visualization guidelines to improve visual communication effectiveness. The goal of such efforts would be to provide input into the development of a more comprehensive USGCRP indicator set, building on recommendations from Kenney et al. (2014), and improve our understanding of the comprehension and use of indicators by non-scientists.

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agriculturalmore » Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.« less

An AgMIP framework for improved agricultural representation in integrated assessment models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Asseng, Senthold; Boote, Kenneth J.; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Martre, Pierre; McDermid, Sonali P.; Müller, Christoph; Snyder, Abigail; Thorburn, Peter J.

2017-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) hold great potential to assess how future agricultural systems will be shaped by socioeconomic development, technological innovation, and changing climate conditions. By coupling with climate and crop model emulators, IAMs have the potential to resolve important agricultural feedback loops and identify unintended consequences of socioeconomic development for agricultural systems. Here we propose a framework to develop robust representation of agricultural system responses within IAMs, linking downstream applications with model development and the coordinated evaluation of key climate responses from local to global scales. We survey the strengths and weaknesses of protocol-based assessments linked to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), each utilizing multiple sites and models to evaluate crop response to core climate changes including shifts in carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, and water availability, with some studies further exploring how climate responses are affected by nitrogen levels and adaptation in farm systems. Site-based studies with carefully calibrated models encompass the largest number of activities; however they are limited in their ability to capture the full range of global agricultural system diversity. Representative site networks provide more targeted response information than broadly-sampled networks, with limitations stemming from difficulties in covering the diversity of farming systems. Global gridded crop models provide comprehensive coverage, although with large challenges for calibration and quality control of inputs. Diversity in climate responses underscores that crop model emulators must distinguish between regions and farming system while recognizing model uncertainty. Finally, to bridge the gap between bottom-up and top-down approaches we recommend the deployment of a hybrid climate response system employing a representative network of sites to bias-correct comprehensive gridded simulations, opening the door to accelerated development and a broad range of applications.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the first and second largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which is itself the largest driver of present-day climate change1. Projections of fossil fuel consumption and land-use change are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESM) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing2,3. While empirical datasets are available to inform historical analyses4,5, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use based on energy economic models, constrained using historical and present-day data and forced with assumptionsmore » about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories6. Here we show that the influence of biospheric change – the integrated effect of climatic, ecological, and geochemical processes – on land ecosystems has a significant impact on energy, agriculture, and land-use projections for the 21st century. Such feedbacks have been ignored in previous ESM studies of future climate. We find that synchronous exposure of land ecosystem productivity in the economic system to biospheric change as it develops in an ESM results in a 10% reduction of land area used for crop cultivation; increased managed forest area and land carbon; a 15-20% decrease in global crop price; and a 17% reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario7. These simulation results demonstrate that biospheric change can significantly alter primary human system forcings to the climate system. This synchronous two-way coupling approach removes inconsistencies in description of climate change between human and biosphere components of the coupled model, mitigating a major source of uncertainty identified in assessments of future climate projections8-10.« less

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

NASA's Earth Observing System: The Transition from Climate Monitoring to Climate Change Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, Michael D.; Herring, David D.

1998-01-01

Earth's 4.5 billion year history is a study in change. Natural geological forces have been rearranging the surface features and climatic conditions of our planet since its beginning. There is scientific evidence that some of these natural changes have not only led to mass extinctions of species (e.g., dinosaurs), but have also severely impacted human civilizations. For instance, there is evidence that a relatively sudden climate change caused a 300-year drought that contributed to the downfall of Akkadia, one of the most powerful empires in the Middle-East region around 2200 BC. More recently, the "little ice age" from 1200-1400 AD forced the Vikings to abandon Greenland when temperatures there dropped by about 1.5 C, rendering it too difficult to grow enough crops to sustain the population. Today, there is compelling scientific evidence that human activities have attained the magnitude of a geological force and are speeding up the rate of global change. For example, carbon dioxide levels have risen 30 percent since the industrial revolution and about 40 percent of the world's land surface has been transformed by humans. We don't understand the cause-and-effect relationships among Earth's land, ocean, and atmosphere well enough to predict what, if any, impacts these rapid changes will have on future climate conditions. We need to make many measurements all over the world, over a long period of time, in order to assemble the information needed to construct accurate computer models that will enable us to forecast climate change. In 1988, the Earth System Sciences Committee, sponsored by NASA, issued a report calling for an integrated, long-term strategy for measuring the vital signs of Earth's climate system. The report urged that the measurements must all be intimately coupled with focused process studies, they must facilitate development of Earth system models, and they must be stored in an information system that ensures open access to consistent, long-term data. This committee emphasized that the only feasible way to collect these consistent, long-term data is through the use of space-based Earth "remote sensors" (instruments that can measure from a distance things like temperature).

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lúcio, F.

2012-04-01

Climate information at global, regional and national levels and in timeframes ranging from the past, present and future climate is fundamental for planning, sustainable development and to help organizations, countries and individuals adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate variability and change. Based on this recognition, in 2009, the Heads of States and Governments, Ministers and Heads of Delegation representing more than 150 countries, 34 United Nations Organizations and 36 Governmental and non-Governmental international organizations, and more than 2500 experts present at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC - 3) unanimously agreed to develop the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to strengthen the production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. They requested that a taskforce of high-level independent advisors be appointed to prepare a report, including recommendations on the proposed elements of the Framework and the next steps for its implementation. The high-level taskforce produced a report which was endorsed by the Sixteeth World Meteorological Congress XVI in May 2011. A process for the development of the implementation plan and the governance structure of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is well under way being led by the World Meteorological Organization within the UN system. This process involves consultations that engage a broad range of stakeholders including governments, UN and international agencies, regional organizations and specific communities of practitioners. These consultations are being conducted to facilitate discussions of key issues related to the production, availability, delivery and application of climate services in the four priority sectors of the framework (agriculture, water, health and disaster risk reduction) so that the implementation plan of the Framework is a true reflection of the aspirations of stakeholders. The GFCS is envisaged as a set of international arrangements that will coordinate the activities and build on existing efforts to provide climate services that are truly focused on meeting user needs. It will be implemented through the development of five main components: 1) User Interface Platform — to provide ways for climate service users and providers to interact and improve the effectiveness of the Framework and its climate services 2) Climate Services Information System — to produce and distribute climate data and information according to the needs of users and to agreed standards 3) Observations and Monitoring - to develop agreements and standards for collecting and generating necessary climate data 4) Research, Modeling and Prediction section — to harness science capabilities and results to meet the needs of climate services 5) Capacity Building — to support the systematic development of the institutions, infrastructure and human resources needed for effective production of climate services and their application. Putting the GFCS in place will require unprecedented collaboration among agencies and across political, functional and disciplinary boundaries, and a global mobilization of effort. This communication will provide information on benefits and the process for the development of the GFCS as well as potential entry points for stakeholders to participate. In addition, it will highlight some of the research, modelling and prediction opportunities that will require intra-disciplinary science action.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, P. E.; Calvin, K. V.; Jones, A. D.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Shi, X.; Mao, J.; Collins, W. D.; Edmonds, J.; Hurtt, G. C.

2017-12-01

Fossil fuel combustion and land-use change are the two largest contributors to industrial-era increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Projections of these are thus fundamental inputs for coupled Earth system models (ESMs) used to estimate the physical and biological consequences of future climate system forcing. While historical datasets are available to inform past and current climate analyses, assessments of future climate change have relied on projections of energy and land use from energy economic models, constrained by assumptions about future policy, land-use patterns, and socio-economic development trajectories. In this work we show that the climatic impacts on land ecosystems drives significant feedbacks in energy, agriculture, land-use, and carbon cycle projections for the 21st century. We find that exposure of human appropriated land ecosystem productivity to biospheric change results in reductions of land area used for crops; increases in managed forest area and carbon stocks; decreases in global crop prices; and reduction in fossil fuel emissions for a low-mid range forcing scenario. Land ecosystem response to increased carbon dioxide concentration, increased anthropogenic nitrogen deposition, and changes in temperature and precipitation all play a role. The feedbacks between climate-induced biospheric change and human system forcings to the climate system demonstrated in this work are handled inconsistently, or excluded altogether, in the one-way asynchronous coupling of energy economic models to ESMs used to date.

Sciencetogo.Org: Using Humor to Engage a Public Audience with the Serious Issue of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Chen, R. F.; Rabkin, D.; Wilson, R.

2014-12-01

A team of educators, scientists, and communication experts from multiple universities as well as a Science museum will report on the impact of ScienceToGo.org, which is an Out of Home Multi-Media (OHMM) exhibit targeting adults riding a major subway system. The campaign's goal is to design, implement, and study the efficacy of an OHMM model for free choice science learning about our changing climate. Subway riders represent a diverse and captive audience with most of them spending an average of one hour a day in the subway system. Through the use of specially designed OHMM such as train placards, platform posters, and virtual resources the campaign engages a potential audience of 500,000 riders/day with opportunities to learn climate change science informally. The primary goal of the ScienceToGo.org campaign is to engage, entertain, and educate the adult subway riding community in major U.S. city about climate change as a real, relevant, and solvable local challenge. A naturalistic quasi-experimental inquiry employing a mixed methodology approach best describes our research design with half of the subway system exposed to the project signage (experimental group) and the other half not being exposed to the project signage (control group). To identify possible outcomes, data was collected in the several forms: survey, analytic data associated with website, social media, web app, focus groups, and observations. This campaign is an example of how an individual's daily routine may be enhanced with an informal science learning opportunity. We see an urgent need to improve both the public's engagement with climate change science and to the profile of climate change science in formal education settings. The campaign makes deliberate use of humor and fun to engage a public and diverse audience with the serious issue of climate change. The research that will be presented will reveal some of the strengths and weaknesses of this strategy when communicating science to a diverse audience. Overall, the preponderance of evidence indicates that humor and fun are effective at engaging riders on mass transit. Mass transit spaces represent a promsing medium for further exploration and development when it comes to informal learning about climate change science.

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in these projects is to provide the connections between climate data and running ecological models, and prototype these for future work. NCPP will develop capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and projections of future climate, and will work to link expert guidance and understanding of modeling processes and evaluation of modeling with the use of numerical climate data. Translational information thus is a suite of information that aids in translation of numerical climate information into usable knowledge for applications, e.g. ecological response models, hydrologic risk studies. This information includes technical and scientific aspects including, but not limited to: 1) results of objective, quantitative evaluation of climate models & downscaling techniques, 2) guidance on appropriate uses and interpretation, i.e., understanding the advantages and limitations of various downscaling techniques for specific user applications, 3) characterizing and interpreting uncertainty, 4) Descriptions meaningful to applications, e.g. narratives. NCPP believes that translational information is best co-developed between climate scientists and applications scientists, such as the NC-CSC pilot.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on Satellite and other Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lean, P.; Kim, J.; Waliser, D. E.; Hall, A. D.; Mattmann, C. A.; Granger, S. L.; Case, K.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Guan, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Kaki, S.

2010-12-01

Regional climate models are a fundamental tool needed for downscaling global climate simulations and projections, such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs) that form the basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The regional modeling process provides the means to accommodate higher resolution and a greater complexity of Earth System processes. Evaluation of both the global and regional climate models against observations is essential to identify model weaknesses and to direct future model development efforts focused on reducing the uncertainty associated with climate projections. However, the lack of reliable observational data and the lack of formal tools are among the serious limitations to addressing these objectives. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information on many different aspects of the climate system, but due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using the data, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL / UCLA is developing a model evaluation system to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ, assimilated, and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the modeling community. The system includes a central database to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating predefined statistical metrics to assess model performance. This allows the time taken to compare model simulations with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. Early results from the use this new model evaluation system for evaluating regional climate simulations over California/western US regions will be presented.

Developing NOAA's Climate Data Records From AVHRR and Other Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Bates, J. J.; Kearns, E. J.

2010-12-01

As part of the provisional NOAA Climate Service, NOAA is providing leadership in the development of authoritative, measurement-based information on climate change and variability. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) recently initiated a satellite Climate Data Record Program (CDRP) to provide sustained and objective climate information derived from meteorological satellite data that NOAA has collected over the past 30+ years - particularly from its Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) program. These are the longest sustained global measurement records in the world and represent billions of dollars of investment. NOAA is now applying advanced analysis methods -- which have improved remarkably over the last decade -- to the POES AVHRR and other instrument data. Data from other satellite programs, including NASA and international research programs and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), are also being used. This process will unravel the underlying climate trend and variability information and return new value from the records. In parallel, NCDC will extend these records by applying the same methods to present-day and future satellite measurements, including the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and Jason-3. In this presentation, we will describe the AVHRR-related algorithm development activities that CDRP recently selected and funded through open competitions. We will particularly discuss some of the technical challenges related to adapting and using AVHRR algorithms with the VIIRS data that should become available with the launch of the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in early 2012. We will also describe IT system development activities that will provide data processing and reprocessing, storage and management. We will also outline the maturing Program framework, including the strategies for coding and development standards, community reviews, independent program oversight, and research-to-operations algorithm migration and execution. Timeline of NOAA's polar orbiters that carried AVHRR. NOAA's approach to flying the same or similar instruments sequentially is well-suited to CDR development.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harriman, Lindsey M.

2014-01-01

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

2014-12-01

Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

Multi-model inference for incorporating trophic and climate uncertainty into stock assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ianelli, James; Holsman, Kirstin K.; Punt, André E.; Aydin, Kerim

2016-12-01

Ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) approaches allow a broader and more extensive consideration of objectives than is typically possible with conventional single-species approaches. Ecosystem linkages may include trophic interactions and climate change effects on productivity for the relevant species within the system. Presently, models are evolving to include a comprehensive set of fishery and ecosystem information to address these broader management considerations. The increased scope of EBFM approaches is accompanied with a greater number of plausible models to describe the systems. This can lead to harvest recommendations and biological reference points that differ considerably among models. Model selection for projections (and specific catch recommendations) often occurs through a process that tends to adopt familiar, often simpler, models without considering those that incorporate more complex ecosystem information. Multi-model inference provides a framework that resolves this dilemma by providing a means of including information from alternative, often divergent models to inform biological reference points and possible catch consequences. We apply an example of this approach to data for three species of groundfish in the Bering Sea: walleye pollock, Pacific cod, and arrowtooth flounder using three models: 1) an age-structured "conventional" single-species model, 2) an age-structured single-species model with temperature-specific weight at age, and 3) a temperature-specific multi-species stock assessment model. The latter two approaches also include consideration of alternative future climate scenarios, adding another dimension to evaluate model projection uncertainty. We show how Bayesian model-averaging methods can be used to incorporate such trophic and climate information to broaden single-species stock assessments by using an EBFM approach that may better characterize uncertainty.

Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.

Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

Proceedings of the 1991 Symposium on Systems Analysis in Forest Resources

Treesearch

[Compiler

1991-01-01

Forest Service, university, forest industry, and private consulting representatives presented 65 papers. General topic areas include: land management planning, multicriteria optimization, timber harvest scheduling, geographic information systems, sawmill simulation, timber supply analysis, and climate simulation.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Building partnerships to produce actionable science to support climate-informed management decisions: North Central Climate Science Center example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lackett, J.; Ojima, D. S.; McNeeley, S.

2017-12-01

As climate change impacts become more apparent in our environment, action is needed to enhance the social-ecological system resilience. Incorporating principles which lead to actionable research and project co-development, when appropriate, will facilitate building linkages between the research and the natural resource management communities. In order to develop strategies to manage for climatic and ecosystem changes, collaborative actions are needed between researchers and resource managers to apply appropriate knowledge of the ecosystem and management environments to enable feasible solutions and management actions to respond to climate change. Our team has been involved in developing and establishing a research and engagement center, the North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC), for the US Department of Interior, to support the development and translation of pertinent climate science information to natural resource managers in the north central portion of the United States. The NC CSC has implemented a platform to support the Resource for Vulnerability Assessment, Adaptation, and Mitigation Projects (ReVAMP) with research, engagement, and training activities to support resource managers and researchers. These activities are aimed at the co-production of appropriate response strategies to climate change in the region, in particular to drought-related responses. Through this platform we, with other partners in the region, including the Department of Interior and the Department of Agriculture, are bringing various training tools, climate information, and management planning tools to resource managers. The implementation of ReVAMP has led to development of planning efforts which include a more explicit representation of climate change as a driver of drought events in our region. Scenario planning provides a process which integrates management goals with possible outcomes derived from observations and simulations of ecological impacts of climate change. Co-development of management options under these various scenarios have allowed for guidance about further research needed, observations needed to better monitor ecological conditions under climate changes, and adaptive management practices to increase resilience.

The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

2010-12-01

Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda. Project results can also inform numerous other ongoing database efforts connected to the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change.

Reports to the Nation on our changing planet. Winter 1991 No. 1: The climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

This pamphlet is a semi-annual report for the period April 1992 through September 1992 dealing with the study of climatology. This introductory pamphlet treats in the simplest of terms such topics as climate change, the greenhouse effect, the global heat engine, hydrology, oceanography, computers and climatology, ice ages, and global warming. Informative charts are included.

Modeling physical and chemical climate of the northeastern United States for a geographic information system

Treesearch

Scott V. Ollinger; John D. Aber; Anthony C. Federer; Gary M. Lovett; Jennifer M. Ellis

1995-01-01

A model of physical and chemical climate was developed for New York and New England that can be used in a GIs for integration with ecosystem models. The variables included are monthly average maximum and minimum daily temperatures, precipitation, humidity, and solar radiation, as well as annual atmospheric deposition of sulfur and nitrogen. Equations generated from...

Root Systems of Individual Plants, and the Biotic and Abiotic Factors Controlling Their Depth and Distribution: a Synthesis Using a Global Database.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tumber-Davila, S. J.; Schenk, H. J.; Jackson, R. B.

2017-12-01

This synthesis examines plant rooting distributions globally, by doubling the number of entries in the Root Systems of Individual Plants database (RSIP) created by Schenk and Jackson. Root systems influence many processes, including water and nutrient uptake and soil carbon storage. Root systems also mediate vegetation responses to changing climatic and environmental conditions. Therefore, a collective understanding of the importance of rooting systems to carbon sequestration, soil characteristics, hydrology, and climate, is needed. Current global models are limited by a poor understanding of the mechanisms affecting rooting, carbon stocks, and belowground biomass. This improved database contains an extensive bank of records describing the rooting system of individual plants, as well as detailed information on the climate and environment from which the observations are made. The expanded RSIP database will: 1) increase our understanding of rooting depths, lateral root spreads and above and belowground allometry; 2) improve the representation of plant rooting systems in Earth System Models; 3) enable studies of how climate change will alter and interact with plant species and functional groups in the future. We further focus on how plant rooting behavior responds to variations in climate and the environment, and create a model that can predict rooting behavior given a set of environmental conditions. Preliminary results suggest that high potential evapotranspiration and seasonality of precipitation are indicative of deeper rooting after accounting for plant growth form. When mapping predicted deep rooting by climate, we predict deepest rooting to occur in equatorial South America, Africa, and central India.

From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.

2009-08-01

The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.

Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

2015-12-01

It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to promote the utilization of environmental information and to develop human resources while using DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) which has been built by MEXT.

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System - EOSDIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the work of NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), a petabyte-scale archive of environmental data that supports global climate change research. The Earth Science Data Systems provide end-to-end capabilities to deliver data and information products to users in support of understanding the Earth system. The presentation contains photographs from space of recent events, (i.e., the effects of the tsunami in Japan, and the wildfires in Australia.) It also includes details of the Data Centers that provide the data to EOSDIS and Science Investigator-led Processing Systems. Information about the Land, Atmosphere Near-real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) and some of the uses that the system has made possible are reviewed. Also included is information about how to access the data, and evolutionary plans for the future of the system.

Nonlinear Synergistic Emergence and Predictability in Complex Systems: Theory and Hydro-Climatic Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Hall, Julia; Pires, Carlos A. L.; Blöschl, Günter

2017-04-01

Classical and stochastic dynamical system theories assume structural coherence and dynamic recurrence with invariants of motion that are not necessarily so. These are grounded on the unproven assumption of universality in the dynamic laws derived from statistical kinematic evaluation of non-representative empirical records. As a consequence, the associated formulations revolve around a restrictive set of configurations and intermittencies e.g. in an ergodic setting, beyond which any predictability is essentially elusive. Moreover, dynamical systems are fundamentally framed around dynamic codependence among intervening processes, i.e. entail essentially redundant interactions such as couplings and feedbacks. That precludes synergistic cooperation among processes that, whilst independent from each other, jointly produce emerging dynamic behaviour not present in any of the intervening parties. In order to overcome these fundamental limitations, we introduce a broad class of non-recursive dynamical systems that formulate dynamic emergence of unprecedented states in a fundamental synergistic manner, with fundamental principles in mind. The overall theory enables innovations to be predicted from the internal system dynamics before any a priori information is provided about the associated dynamical properties. The theory is then illustrated to anticipate, from non-emergent records, the spatiotemporal emergence of multiscale hyper chaotic regimes, critical transitions and structural coevolutionary changes in synthetic and real-world complex systems. Example applications are provided within the hydro-climatic context, formulating and dynamically forecasting evolving hydro-climatic distributions, including the emergence of extreme precipitation and flooding in a structurally changing hydro-climate system. Validation is then conducted with a posteriori verification of the simulated dynamics against observational records. Agreement between simulations and observations is confirmed with robust nonlinear information diagnostics.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Railway safety climate: a study on organizational development.

PubMed

Cheng, Yung-Hsiang

2017-09-07

The safety climate of an organization is considered a leading indicator of potential risk for railway organizations. This study adopts the perceptual measurement-individual attribute approach to investigate the safety climate of a railway organization. The railway safety climate attributes are evaluated from the perspective of railway system staff. We identify four safety climate dimensions from exploratory factor analysis, namely safety communication, safety training, safety management and subjectively evaluated safety performance. Analytical results indicate that the safety climate differs at vertical and horizontal organizational levels. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the multilevel safety climate in a railway organization, presents possible causes of the differences under various cultural contexts and differentiates between safety climate scales for diverse workgroups within the railway organization. This information can be used to improve the safety sustainability of railway organizations and to conduct safety supervisions for the government.

Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets.

PubMed

Massonnet, François; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2016-10-28

Observational estimates of the climate system are essential to monitoring and understanding ongoing climate change and to assessing the quality of climate models used to produce near- and long-term climate information. This study poses the dual and unconventional question: Can climate models be used to assess the quality of observational references? We show that this question not only rests on solid theoretical grounds but also offers insightful applications in practice. By comparing four observational products of sea surface temperature with a large multimodel climate forecast ensemble, we find compelling evidence that models systematically score better against the most recent, advanced, but also most independent product. These results call for generalized procedures of model-observation comparison and provide guidance for a more objective observational data set selection. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Future Climate Impacts on Crop Water Demand and Groundwater Longevity in Agricultural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, T. A.; Sahoo, S.; Elliott, J. W.; Foster, I.

2016-12-01

Improving groundwater management practices under future drought conditions in agricultural regions requires three steps: 1) estimating the impacts of climate and drought on crop water demand, 2) projecting groundwater availability given climate and demand forcing, and 3) using this information to develop climate-smart policy and water use practices. We present an innovative combination of models to address the first two steps, and inform the third. Crop water demand was simulated using biophysical crop models forced by multiple climate models and climate scenarios, with one case simulating climate adaptation (e.g. modify planting or harvest time) and another without adaptation. These scenarios were intended to represent a range of drought projections and farm management responses. Nexty, we used projected climate conditions and simulated water demand across the United States as inputs to a novel machine learning-based groundwater model. The model was applied to major agricultural regions relying on the High Plains and Mississippi Alluvial aquifer systems in the US. The groundwater model integrates input data preprocessed using single spectrum analysis, mutual information, and a genetic algorithm, with an artificial neural network model. Model calibration and test results indicate low errors over the 33 year model run, and strong correlations to groundwater levels in hundreds of wells across each aquifer. Model results include a range of projected groundwater level changes from the present to 2050, and in some regions, identification and timeframe of aquifer depletion. These results quantify aquifer longevity under climate and crop scenarios, and provide decision makers with the data needed to compare scenarios of crop water demand, crop yield, and groundwater response, as they aim to balance water sustainability with food security.

Indicators and metrics for the assessment of climate engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oschlies, A.; Held, H.; Keller, D.; Keller, K.; Mengis, N.; Quaas, M.; Rickels, W.; Schmidt, H.

2017-01-01

Selecting appropriate indicators is essential to aggregate the information provided by climate model outputs into a manageable set of relevant metrics on which assessments of climate engineering (CE) can be based. From all the variables potentially available from climate models, indicators need to be selected that are able to inform scientists and society on the development of the Earth system under CE, as well as on possible impacts and side effects of various ways of deploying CE or not. However, the indicators used so far have been largely identical to those used in climate change assessments and do not visibly reflect the fact that indicators for assessing CE (and thus the metrics composed of these indicators) may be different from those used to assess global warming. Until now, there has been little dedicated effort to identifying specific indicators and metrics for assessing CE. We here propose that such an effort should be facilitated by a more decision-oriented approach and an iterative procedure in close interaction between academia, decision makers, and stakeholders. Specifically, synergies and trade-offs between social objectives reflected by individual indicators, as well as decision-relevant uncertainties should be considered in the development of metrics, so that society can take informed decisions about climate policy measures under the impression of the options available, their likely effects and side effects, and the quality of the underlying knowledge base.

Flood Protection Decision Making Within a Coupled Human and Natural System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Greg; O'Connell, Enda

2013-04-01

Due to the perceived threat from climate change, prediction under changing climatic and hydrological conditions has become a dominant theme of hydrological research. Much of this research has been climate model-centric, in which GCM/RCM climate projections have been used to drive hydrological system models to explore potential impacts that should inform adaptation decision-making. However, adaptation fundamentally involves how humans may respond to increasing flood and drought hazards by changing their strategies, activities and behaviours which are coupled in complex ways to the natural systems within which they live and work. Humans are major agents of change in hydrological systems, and representing human activities and behaviours in coupled human and natural hydrological system models is needed to gain insight into the complex interactions that take place, and to inform adaptation decision-making. Governments and their agencies are under pressure to make proactive investments to protect people living in floodplains from the perceived increasing flood hazard. However, adopting this as a universal strategy everywhere is not affordable, particularly in times of economic stringency and given uncertainty about future climatic conditions. It has been suggested that the assumption of stationarity, which has traditionally been invoked in making hydrological risk assessments, is no longer tenable. However, before the assumption of hydrologic nonstationarity is accepted, the ability to cope with the uncertain impacts of global warming on water management via the operational assumption of hydrologic stationarity should be carefully examined. Much can be learned by focussing on natural climate variability and its inherent changes in assessing alternative adaptation strategies. A stationary stochastic multisite flood hazard model has been developed that can exhibit increasing variability/persistence in annual maximum floods, starting with the traditional assumption of independence. This has been coupled to an agent based model of how various stakeholders interact in determining where and when flood protection investments are made in a hypothetical region with multiple sites at risk from flood hazard. Monte Carlo simulation is used to explore how government agencies with finite resources might best invest in flood protection infrastructure in a highly variable climate with a high degree of future uncertainty. Insight is provided into whether proactive or reactive strategies are to be preferred in an increasingly variable climate.

A Global Geographic Information System Data Base of Storm Occurrences and Other Climatic Phenomena Affecting Coastal Zones (1991) (NDP-035)

DOE Data Explorer

Birdwell, Kevub R. [Murray State University, Kentucky; Daniels, Richard C.

2012-01-01

This NDP is unique in that it represents CDIAC's first offering of ARC/INFOTM export data files and equivalent flat ASCII data files that may be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GISs). The data set contains 61 variables, including information on tropical storms, hurricanes, super typhoons, extratropical cyclogeneses, polar lows, cyclonicity, influence of winds in monsoon regions, and sea-ice concentrations. Increased availability of source data has made it possible to extend the area of these data variables to regional or global coverages. All data variables except five are referenced to 1° × 1° or 5° × 5° grid cells of latitude and longitude. These data help meet the demand for new and improved climatologies of storm events and may be used in climate research studies, including the verification of general circulation models and the calculation of storm-recurrence intervals.

The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2013-12-01

Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Examination of the relationship between management and clinician perception of patient safety climate and patient satisfaction.

PubMed

Mazurenko, Olena; Richter, Jason; Kazley, Abby Swanson; Ford, Eric

2017-04-25

The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between managers and clinicians' agreement on deeming the patient safety climate as high or low and the patients' satisfaction with those organizations. We used two secondary data sets: the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (2012) and the Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (2012). We used ordinary least squares regressions to analyze the relationship between the extent of agreement between managers and clinicians' perceptions of safety climate in relationship to patient satisfaction. The dependent variables were four Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems patient satisfaction scores: communication with nurses, communication with doctors, communication about medicines, and discharge information. The main independent variables were four groups that were formed based on the extent of managers and clinicians' agreement on four patient safety climate domains: communication openness, feedback and communication about errors, teamwork within units, and teamwork across units. After controlling for hospital and market-level characteristics, we found that patient satisfaction was significantly higher if managers and clinicians reported that patient safety climate is high or if only clinicians perceived the climate as high. Specifically, manager and clinician agreement on high levels of communication openness (β = 2.25, p = .01; β = 2.46, p = .05), feedback and communication about errors (β = 3.0, p = .001; β = 2.89, p = .01), and teamwork across units (β = 2.91, p = .001; β = 3.34, p = .01) was positively and significantly associated with patient satisfaction with discharge information and communication about medication. In addition, more favorable perceptions about patient safety climate by clinicians only yielded similar findings. Organizations should measure and examine patient safety climate from multiple perspectives and be aware that individuals may have varying opinions about safety climate. Hospitals should encourage multidisciplinary collaboration given that staff perceptions about patient safety climate may be associated with patient satisfaction.

Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.

2011-12-01

The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is processed based on reading a commonly provided climate change resource. The expectation is that participants will process the figures differently following reading the pamphlet. In addition, we will evaluate which aspects of the resource tend to best correlate with the changes in figure processing.

Ocean-Ice Sheet Interactions in the Norwegian Sea and Teleconnections to Low Latitude Hydrology and Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brendryen, J.; Hannisdal, B.; Haaga, K. A.; Haflidason, H.; Castro, D. D.; Grasmo, K. J.; Sejrup, H. P.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Kelly, M. J.; Lu, Y.

2016-12-01

Abrupt millennial scale climatic events known as Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a defining feature of the Quaternary climate system dynamics in the North Atlantic and beyond. We present a high-resolution multi-proxy record of ocean-ice sheet interactions in the Norwegian Sea spanning the interval between 50 and 150 ka BP. A comparison with low latitude records indicates a very close connection between the high northern latitude ocean-ice sheet interactions and large scale changes in low latitude atmospheric circulation and hydrology even on sub-millennial scales. The records are placed on a common precise radiometric chronology based on correlations to U/Th dated speleothem records from China and the Alps. This enables a comparison of the records to orbital and other climatically important parameters such as U/Th dated sea-level data from corals and speleothems. We explore the drive-response relationships in these coupled systems with the information transfer (IT) and the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analytical techniques. These methods employ conceptually different approaches to detect the relative strength and directionality of potentially chaotic and nonlinearly coupled systems. IT is a non-parametric measure of information transfer between data records based on transfer entropy, while CCM relies on delay reconstructions using Takens' theorem. This approach enables us to address how the climate system processes interact and how this interaction is affected by external forcing from for example greenhouse gases and orbital variability.

Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

2016-12-01

Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication channels. The findings offer valuable bottom-up insights into farmers' perspectives on relevance of climate information. These results will also be compared with current modeling capabilities in order to synthesize conclusions for improving the usability of climate science for agricultural decision-makers.

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Cities and “budget-based” management of the energy-water-climate nexus: Case studies in transportation policy, infrastructure systems, and urban utility risk management

DOE PAGES

Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu

2017-11-03

This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less

Towards the Goal of Modular Climate Data Services: An Overview of NCPP Applications and Software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koziol, B. W.; Cinquini, L.; Treshansky, A.; Murphy, S.; DeLuca, C.

2013-12-01

In August 2013, the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform (NCPP) organized a workshop focusing on the quantitative evaluation of downscaled climate data products (QED-2013). The QED-2013 workshop focused on real-world application problems drawn from several sectors (e.g. hydrology, ecology, environmental health, agriculture), and required that downscaled downscaled data products be dynamically accessed, generated, manipulated, annotated, and evaluated. The cyberinfrastructure elements that were integrated to support the workshop included (1) a wiki-based project hosting environment (Earth System CoG) with an interface to data services provided by an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node; (2) metadata tools provided by the Earth System Documentation (ES-DOC) collaboration; and (3) a Python-based library OpenClimateGIS (OCGIS) for subsetting and converting NetCDF-based climate data to GIS and tabular formats. Collectively, this toolset represents a first deployment of a 'ClimateTranslator' that enables users to access, interpret, and apply climate information at local and regional scales. This presentation will provide an overview of these components above, how they were used in the workshop, and discussion of current and potential integration. The long-term strategy for this software stack is to offer the suite of services described on a customizable, per-project basis. Additional detail on the three components is below. (1) Earth System CoG is a web-based collaboration environment that integrates data discovery and access services with tools for supporting governance and the organization of information. QED-2013 utilized these capabilities to share with workshop participants a suite of downscaled datasets, associated images derived from those datasets, and metadata files describing the downscaling techniques involved. The collaboration side of CoG was used for workshop organization, discussion, and results. (2) The ES-DOC Questionnaire, Viewer, and Comparator are web-based tools for the creation and use of model and experiment documentation. Workshop participants used the Questionnaire to generate metadata on regional downscaling models and statistical downscaling methods, and the Viewer to display the results. A prototype Comparator was available to compare properties across dynamically downscaled models. (3) OCGIS is a Python (v2.7) package designed for geospatial manipulation, subsetting, computation, and translation of Climate and Forecasting (CF)-compliant climate datasets - either stored in local NetCDF files, or files served through THREDDS data servers.

Development and Application of Climate Services for Water Resources Planning and Management within the Department of Interior Bureau of Reclamation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raff, D. A.; Morgan, A.; Brekke, L. D.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is the nation's largest wholesale water supplier and the second largest producer of hydropower. Reclamation operates 337 reservoirs with a total storage capacity of 245 million acre-feet and operates 53 hydroelectric powerplants that annually produce, on average for the past 10 years, 40 billion kilowatt-hours. Reclamation is adapting to the impacts and future challenges posed by the changing climate through the development of new climate services as well as through cooperation with Federal, state, local, tribal, academic, and non-governmental partners in the use of climate and water resource information that may be available. Reclamation is utilizing this information within a strategy that has four goals: 1) Increase Water Management Flexibility, 2) Enhance Climate Adaptation Planning, 3) Improve Infrastructure Resiliency, and 4) Expand Information Sharing. Within this presentation we will focus on the utilization of climate services within each of these key goals of Reclamation's strategy. This includes the utilization of climate information to track and potentially improve reservoir management to increase water management flexibility, the development of climate informed hydrology that supports climate adaptation planning, use of climate information to inform decisions of infrastructure resilience, and climate services use for jointly informed water management decisions through education and web based services.

The pilot climate data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reph, M. G.; Treinish, L. A.; Smith, P. H.

1984-01-01

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) is an interactive scientific information management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data. The PCDS was developed to manage a large collection of data of interest to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) research community and currently provides such support for approximately twenty data sets. In order to provide the PCDS capabilities, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC) has integrated the capabilities of several general-purpose software packages with specialized software for reading and reformatting the supported data sets. These capabilities were integrated in a manner which allows the PCDS to be easily expanded, either to provide support for additional data sets or to provide additional functional capabilities. This also allows the PCDS to take advantage of new technology as it becomes available, since parts of the system can be replaced with more powerful components without significantly affecting the user interface.

Information-Theoretic Approach May Shed a Light to a Better Understanding and Sustaining the Integrity of Ecological-Societal Systems under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J.

2016-12-01

Considering high levels of uncertainty, epistemological conflicts over facts and values, and a sense of urgency, normal paradigm-driven science will be insufficient to mobilize people and nation toward sustainability. The conceptual framework to bridge the societal system dynamics with that of natural ecosystems in which humanity operates remains deficient. The key to understanding their coevolution is to understand `self-organization.' Information-theoretic approach may shed a light to provide a potential framework which enables not only to bridge human and nature but also to generate useful knowledge for understanding and sustaining the integrity of ecological-societal systems. How can information theory help understand the interface between ecological systems and social systems? How to delineate self-organizing processes and ensure them to fulfil sustainability? How to evaluate the flow of information from data through models to decision-makers? These are the core questions posed by sustainability science in which visioneering (i.e., the engineering of vision) is an essential framework. Yet, visioneering has neither quantitative measure nor information theoretic framework to work with and teach. This presentation is an attempt to accommodate the framework of self-organizing hierarchical open systems with visioneering into a common information-theoretic framework. A case study is presented with the UN/FAO's communal vision of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) which pursues a trilemma of efficiency, mitigation, and resilience. Challenges of delineating and facilitating self-organizing systems are discussed using transdisciplinary toold such as complex systems thinking, dynamic process network analysis and multi-agent systems modeling. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMA-2012-0001-A (WISE project).

Informing Decisions with a Climate Synthesis Product: Implications for Regional Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guido, Z.; Hill, D.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.

2012-12-01

The demand for regional climate information is increasing and spurring efforts to provide a broad slate of climate services that inform policy and resource management and elevate general knowledge. Routine syntheses of existing climate-related information may be an effective strategy for connecting climate information to decision making, but few studies have formally assessed their contribution to informing decisions. During the 2010-2011 winter, drought conditions expanded and intensified in Arizona and New Mexico, creating an opportunity to develop and evaluate a pithy, monthly regional climate communication product—La Niña Drought Tracker—that synthesized and interpreted drought and climate information. Six issues were published and subsequently evaluated through an online survey. On average, 417 people consulted the publication each month. Many of the survey respondents indicated that they made at least one drought-related decision, and the product at least moderately influenced the majority of those decisions, some of which helped mitigate economic losses and reduce climate vulnerability. The product also improved understanding of climate and drought for more than 90 percent of the respondents and helped the majority of them better prepare for drought. These, and other results demonstrate that routine interpretation and synthesis of existing climate information can help enhance access to and understanding and use of climate information in decision-making. Moreover, developing regional, contextual knowledge within climate service programs can facilitate the implementation of activities like the Tracker that enhance the use of climate information without engaging in time-consuming collaborative processes that can prevent the timely production of the services. We present results from the case study of the Tracker and place it within the context of the challenges and opportunities associated with providing climate services, particularly those services that require several-to-many months of work but often do not generate substantial financial sponsorship. These medium-term climate services, like the Tracker, present formidable challenges. However, we argue, they are vital to satisfying stakeholder demand, creating new and strengthening existing partnerships, aiding decisions, advancing climate literacy, and fostering future projects—main goals of climate services.

Integrating Indigenous Traditional, Local and Scientific Knowledge for Improved Management, Policy and Decision-Making in Reindeer Husbandry in the Russian Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.; Yurchak, Boris; Turi, Johan Mathis; Mathiesen, Svein D.; Aissi-Wespi, Rita L.

2004-01-01

As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities begin to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This paper describes a new GIs-based system being designed to bring local and indigenous traditional knowledge together with scientific data and information, remote sensing, and information technologies to address health-related environment, weather, climate, pollution and land use change issues for improved decision/policy-making for reindeer husbandry. The system is building an easily-accessible archive of relevant current and historical, traditional, local and remotely-sensed and other data and observations for shared analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest. Protection of indigenous culturally sensitive information will be respected through appropriate data protocols. A mechanism which enables easy information sharing among all participants, which is real time and geo-referenced and which allows interconnectivity with remote sites is also being designed into the system for maximum communication among partners. A preliminary version of our system will be described for a Russian reindeer test site, which will include a combination of indigenous knowledge about local conditions and issues, remote sensing and ground-based data on such parameters as the vegetation state and distribution, snow cover, temperature, ice condition, and infrastructure.

Comparing Planning Hydrologic Ensembles associated with Paleoclimate, Projected Climate, and blended Climate Information Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Prairie, J.; Pruitt, T.; Rajagopalan, B.; Woodhouse, C.

2008-12-01

Water resources adaptation planning under climate change involves making assumptions about probabilistic water supply conditions, which are linked to a given climate context (e.g., instrument records, paleoclimate indicators, projected climate data, or blend of these). Methods have been demonstrated to associate water supply assumptions with any of these climate information types. Additionally, demonstrations have been offered that represent these information types in a scenario-rich (ensemble) planning framework, either via ensembles (e.g., survey of many climate projections) or stochastic modeling (e.g., based on instrument records or paleoclimate indicators). If the planning goal involves using a hydrologic ensemble that jointly reflects paleoclimate (e.g., lower- frequency variations) and projected climate information (e.g., monthly to annual trends), methods are required to guide how these information types might be translated into water supply assumptions. However, even if such a method exists, there is lack of understanding on how such a hydrologic ensemble might differ from ensembles developed relative to paleoclimate or projected climate information alone. This research explores two questions: (1) how might paleoclimate and projected climate information be blended into an planning hydrologic ensemble, and (2) how does a planning hydrologic ensemble differ when associated with the individual climate information types (i.e. instrumental records, paleoclimate, projected climate, or blend of the latter two). Case study basins include the Gunnison River Basin in Colorado and the Missouri River Basin above Toston in Montana. Presentation will highlight ensemble development methods by information type, and comparison of ensemble results.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

In Brief: Geoengineering draft statement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-04-01

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has prepared a draft policy statement on geoengineering the climate system, which the AMS Council is considering for approval. The statement notes, “Geoengineering will not substitute for either aggressive mitigation or proactive adaptation. It could contribute to a comprehensive risk management strategy to slow climate change and alleviate its negative impacts, but the potential for adverse and unintended consequences implies a need for adequate research, appropriate regulation, and transparent consideration.” The statement, if adopted, indicates that AMS recommends enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential for geoengineering the climate system; additional study of the historical, ethical, legal, political, and societal aspects of the geoengineering issues; and the development and analysis of policy options to promote transparency and international cooperation in exploring geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless efforts to manipulate the climate system. AMS is accepting comments on the draft statement until 23 April. For more information, visit http://ametsoc.org/policy/draftstatements/index.html#draft.

Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2015-09-07

China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex

2015-01-01

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

A Global Digital Database and Atlas of Quaternary Dune Fields and Sand Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancaster, N.; Halfen, A. F.

2012-12-01

Sand seas and dune fields are globally significant sedimentary deposits, which archive the effects of climate and sea level change on a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Dune systems provide a valuable source of information on past climate conditions, including evidence for periods of aridity and unique data on past wind regimes. Researchers have compiled vast quantities of geomorphic and chronological data from these dune systems for nearly half a century, however, these data remain disconnected, making comparisons of dune systems challenging at global and regional scales. The primary goal of this project is to develop a global digital database of chronologic information for periods of desert sand dune accumulation and stabilization, as well as, pertinent stratigraphic and geomorphic information. This database can then be used by scientists to 1) document the history of aeolian processes in arid regions with emphasis on dune systems in low and mid latitude deserts, 2) correlate periods of sand accumulation and stability with other terrestrial and marine paleoclimatic proxies and records, and 3) develop an improved understanding of the response of dune systems to climate change. The database currently resides in Microsoft Access format, which allows searching and filtering of data. The database includes 4 linked tables containing information on the site, chronological control (radiocarbon or luminescence), and the pertinent literature citations. Thus far the database contains information for 838 sites world wide, comprising 2598 luminescence and radiocarbon ages, though these numbers increase regularly as new data is added. The database is only available on request at this time, however, an online, GIS database is being developed and will be available in the near future. Data outputs from the online database will include PDF reports and Google Earth formatted data sets for quick viewing of data. Additionally, data will be available in a gridded format for wider use in data-model comparisons. Sites in database August 2012

Beyond climate-smart agriculture: toward safe operating spaces for global food systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gulledge, Jay; Neufeldt, Heinrich; Jahn, Margaret M

Agriculture is considered to be climate-smart when it contributes to increasing food security, adaptation and mitigation in a sustainable way. This new concept now dominates current discussions in agricultural development because of its capacity to unite the agendas of the agriculture, development and climate change communities under one brand. In this opinion piece authored by scientists from a variety of international agricultural and climate research communities, we argue that the concept needs to be evaluated critically because the relationship between the three dimensions is poorly understood, such that practically any improved agricultural practice can be considered climate-smart. This lack ofmore » clarity may have contributed to the broad appeal of the concept. From the understanding that we must hold ourselves accountable to demonstrably better meet human needs in the short and long term within foreseeable local and planetary limits, we develop a conceptualization of climate-smart agriculture as agriculture that can be shown to bring us closer to safe operating spaces for agricultural and food systems across spatial and temporal scales. Improvements in the management of agricultural systems that bring us significantly closer to safe operating spaces will require transformations in governance and use of our natural resources, underpinned by enabling political, social and economic conditions beyond incremental changes. Establishing scientifically credible indicators and metrics of long-term safe operating spaces in the context of a changing climate and growing social-ecological challenges is critical to creating the societal demand and political will required to motivate deep transformations. Answering questions on how the needed transformational change can be achieved will require actively setting and testing hypotheses to refine and characterize our concepts of safer spaces for social-ecological systems across scales. This effort will demand prioritizing key areas of innovation, such as (1) improved adaptive management and governance of social-ecological systems; (2) development of meaningful and relevant integrated indicators of social-ecological systems; (3) gathering of quality integrated data, information, knowledge and analytical tools for improved models and scenarios in time frames and at scales relevant for decision-making; and (4) establishment of legitimate and empowered science policy dialogues on local to international scales to facilitate decision making informed by metrics and indicators of safe operating spaces.« less

Using simple chaotic models to interpret climate under climate change: Implications for probabilistic climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daron, Joseph

2010-05-01

Exploring the reliability of model based projections is an important pre-cursor to evaluating their societal relevance. In order to better inform decisions concerning adaptation (and mitigation) to climate change, we must investigate whether or not our models are capable of replicating the dynamic nature of the climate system. Whilst uncertainty is inherent within climate prediction, establishing and communicating what is plausible as opposed to what is likely is the first step to ensuring that climate sensitive systems are robust to climate change. Climate prediction centers are moving towards probabilistic projections of climate change at regional and local scales (Murphy et al., 2009). It is therefore important to understand what a probabilistic forecast means for a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system that is subject to changing forcings. It is in this context that we present the results of experiments using simple models that can be considered analogous to the more complex climate system, namely the Lorenz 1963 and Lorenz 1984 models (Lorenz, 1963; Lorenz, 1984). Whilst the search for a low-dimensional climate attractor remains illusive (Fraedrich, 1986; Sahay and Sreenivasan, 1996) the characterization of the climate system in such terms can be useful for conceptual and computational simplicity. Recognising that a change in climate is manifest in a change in the distribution of a particular climate variable (Stainforth et al., 2007), we first establish the equilibrium distributions of the Lorenz systems for certain parameter settings. Allowing the parameters to vary in time, we investigate the dependency of such distributions to initial conditions and discuss the implications for climate prediction. We argue that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction. References: Fraedrich, K. Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci, 43, 419-432, 1986. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963. Lorenz, E. N. Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110, 1984. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, G. J. Jenkins, B. B. B. Booth, C. C. Brown, R. T. Clark, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, E. J. Kendon, R. A. Betts, S. J. Brown, P. Boorman, T. P. Howard, K. A. Humphrey, M. P. McCarthy, R. E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R. A. Wood. Uk climate projections science report: Climate change projections. 2009. Sahay, A. and K. R. Sreenivasan. The search for a low-dimensional characterization of a local climate system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 354, 1715-1750, 1996. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.

Project Ukko - Design of a climate service visualisation interface for seasonal wind forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemment, Drew; Stefaner, Moritz; Makri, Stephann; Buontempo, Carlo; Christel, Isadora; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; de Matos, Paula; Dykes, Jason

2016-04-01

Project Ukko is a prototype climate service to visually communicate probabilistic seasonal wind forecasts for the energy sector. In Project Ukko, an interactive visualisation enhances the accessibility and readability to the latests advances in seasonal wind speed predictions developed as part of the RESILIENCE prototype of the EUPORIAS (EC FP7) project. Climate services provide made-to-measure climate information, tailored to the specific requirements of different users and industries. In the wind energy sector, understanding of wind conditions in the next few months has high economic value, for instance, for the energy traders. Current energy practices use retrospective climatology, but access to reliable seasonal predictions based in the recent advances in global climate models has potential to improve their resilience to climate variability and change. Despite their potential benefits, a barrier to the development of commercially viable services is the complexity of the probabilistic forecast information, and the challenge of communicating complex and uncertain information to decision makers in industry. Project Ukko consists of an interactive climate service interface for wind energy users to explore probabilistic wind speed predictions for the coming season. This interface enables fast visual detection and exploration of interesting features and regions likely to experience unusual changes in wind speed in the coming months.The aim is not only to support users to better understand the future variability in wind power resources, but also to bridge the gap between practitioners' traditional approach and the advanced prediction systems developed by the climate science community. Project Ukko is presented as a case study of cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate science and design, for the development of climate services that are useful, usable and effective for industry users. The presentation will reflect on the challenge of developing a climate service for industry users in the wind energy sector, the background to this challenge, our approach, and the evaluation of the visualisation interface.

Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

PubMed

Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Moving toward climate-informed agricultural decision support - can we use PRISM data for more than just monthly averages?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Decision support systems/models for agriculture are varied in target application and complexity, ranging from simple worksheets to near real-time forecast systems requiring significant computational and manpower resources. Until recently, most such decision support systems have been constructed with...

Data management and analysis for the Earth System Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.; Ananthakrishnan, R.; Bernholdt, D. E.; Bharathi, S.; Brown, D.; Chen, M.; Chervenak, A. L.; Cinquini, L.; Drach, R.; Foster, I. T.; Fox, P.; Hankin, S.; Henson, V. E.; Jones, P.; Middleton, D. E.; Schwidder, J.; Schweitzer, R.; Schuler, R.; Shoshani, A.; Siebenlist, F.; Sim, A.; Strand, W. G.; Wilhelmi, N.; Su, M.

2008-07-01

The international climate community is expected to generate hundreds of petabytes of simulation data within the next five to seven years. This data must be accessed and analyzed by thousands of analysts worldwide in order to provide accurate and timely estimates of the likely impact of climate change on physical, biological, and human systems. Climate change is thus not only a scientific challenge of the first order but also a major technological challenge. In order to address this technological challenge, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) has been established within the U.S. Department of Energy's Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC)-2 program, with support from the offices of Advanced Scientific Computing Research and Biological and Environmental Research. ESG-CET's mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with access to the data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to make sense of enormous climate simulation datasets. Its specific goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing Grid technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet specific distributed database, data access, and data movement needs of national and international climate projects; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide-range of Grid-enabled climate data analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. Building on the successes of the previous Earth System Grid (ESG) project, which has enabled thousands of researchers to access tens of terabytes of data from a small number of ESG sites, ESG-CET is working to integrate a far larger number of distributed data providers, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and remote computers in a highly collaborative problem-solving environment.

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Bahamians and Climate Change: An Analysis of Risk Perception and Climate Change Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neely, R.; Owens, M. A.

2011-12-01

The Commonwealth of the Bahamas is forecasted to be adversely impacted by the effects of climate change. This presentation will present the results of an assessment of the risk perception toward climate change and climate change literacy among Bahamians. 499 Bahamians from the health care and hospitality industries participated in surveys and/or focus groups and three (3) areas of climate change literacy (attitude, behavior and knowledge) were analyzed as well as risk perception. In general, 1) Bahamians demonstrated an elementary understanding of the underlying causes of climate change, 2) possessed positive attitudes toward adopting new climate change policies, and 3) are already adjusting their behaviors in light of the current predictions. This research also resulted in the development of a model of the relationships between the climate literacy subscales (attitude, behavior and knowledge) and risk perception. This study also examined information sources and their impacts on climate change literacy. As the source of information is important in assessing the quality of the information, participants also identified the source(s) of most of their climate change information. The TV news was cited as the most common source for climate change information among Bahamians. As there is limited active research generating specific climate change information in the Bahamas, all the information Bahamians receive as it pertains to climate change is generated abroad. As a result, Bahamians must decipher through to make sense of it on an individual level. From the focus groups, many of the participants have been able to view possible changes through a cultural lens and are willing to make adjustments to maintain the uniqueness and viability of the Bahamas and to preserve it for generations. Continued study of Bahamians' climate change literacy will inform adaption and mitigation policy as well as individual action.

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Keppel-Aleks, Gretchen

As Earth system models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistry–climate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing uncertainties associated with projections of climate change during the remainder of the 21st century.

Application of Geographic Information System (GIS) in Student Experiential Learning on Climate Change and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.; Prakash, A.; San Juan, F.

2016-12-01

Consortium of minority serving institutions including Delaware State University, Virginia State University, Morgan State University, University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Elizabeth City State University have collaborated on various student experiential learning programs to expand the technology-based education by incorporating Geographic Information System (GIS) technique to promote student learning on climate change and sustainability. Specific objectives of this collaborative programs are to: (i) develop new or enhance existing courses of Introduction to Geographic Information System (GIS) and Introduction to Remote Sensing, (ii) enhance teaching and research capabilities through faculty professional development workshops, (iii) engage minority undergraduates in GIS and remote sensing research via experiential learning activities including summer internship, workshop, and work study experience. Ultimate goal is to prepare pipeline of minority task force with skills in GIS and remote sensing application in climate sciences. Various research projects were conducted on topics such as carbon footprint, atmospheric CO2, wildlife diversity, ocean circulation, wild fires, geothermal exploration, etc. Students taking GIS and remote sensing courses often express interests to be involved in research projects to enhance their knowledge and obtain research skills. Of about 400 students trained, approximately 30% of these students were involved in research experience in our programs since 2004. The summer undergraduate research experiences (REU) have offered hands-on research experience to the students on climate change and sustainability. Previous studies indicate that students who are previously exposed to environmental science only by a single field trip or an introductory course could be still at risk of dropping out of this field in their early years of the college. The research experience, especially at early college years, would significantly increase the participation and retention of students in climate sciences and sustainability by creating and maintaining interest in these areas. These programs promoted active recruitment of faculty, staff, and students, fostered the development of partnerships, and enhanced related skill sets among students in GIS and remote sensing.

Tipping Points and Balancing Acts: Grand Challenges and Synergistic Opportunities of Integrating Research and Education, Science and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, M. S.; Stroeve, J. C.

2011-12-01

The "Grand Challenges" to address Global Change identified by the International Council for Science (ICSU) and its partners through the Earth System Sustainability Initiative-improving forecasting, enhancing and integrating observation systems, confining and minimizing global environmental change, responding effectively to change, as well as innovating and evaluating these efforts-require an integrative approach that engages and inspires society in general and young people in particular. What are some of the effective strategies-and stumbling blocks-in being able to make Earth System science and related sustainability efforts relevant and practical to non-technical audiences? Recent climate education projects have pioneered new strategies toward linking and infusing research with education, science with solutions. For example, the Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN), a National Science Digital Library Pathway funded by NSF, has approached this integral approach by "closing the loop" between climate and energy topics, identifying and annotating high quality online resources relating to the carbon cycle and related topics. The Inspiring Climate Education Excellence (ICEE) project, funded by NASA, offers professional development for teachers that infuses climate science with solutions as an emerging "best practice" while being sensitive to the emotional, psychological and political aspects of avoiding "gloom and doom" on one hand or advocating for particular policy solutions on another. Other examples includes NASA's climate website (http://climate.nasa.gov ), which serves as a robust, engaging portal for climate research and data, especially for educators. The recent PBS series Earth: The Operators' Manual and related book and website are other recent example of how climate science research, education and solutions can be incorporated in a way that is appealing and informative. The Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) has given assemblies in thousands of US high schools that integrate climate science and solutions in a way that inspires and informs youth, and similar programs exist internationally. Other approaches to prepare vulnerable communities, especially young people, for natural hazards and human-induced environmental change include programs such as Plan International's "Child Centered Disaster Risk Reduction- Building Resilience Through Participation," and their "Weathering the Storm" project, focusing on integrating the needs of teenage girls with climate change adaptation and risk reduction. While minimizing global environmental and climate change is crucial, these and related programs that weave research with education, science with solutions offer the potential for addressing the "Grand Challenges" by better preparing for societal and environmental tipping points through a more balanced and integrated approach to addressing change."

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO): Science at Your Fingertips

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jennings, L. N.; Treasure, E.; Moore Myers, J.; McNulty, S.

2012-12-01

There is an ever-increasing volume of useful scientific knowledge about climate change effects and management options for natural ecosystems. Agencies such as the USDA Forest Service have been charged with the need to evaluate this body of knowledge and if necessary adapt to the impacts of climate change in their forest planning and management. However, the combined volume of existing information and rate of development of new information, lack of climate change specialists, and limited technology transfer mechanisms make efficient access and use difficult. The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) addresses this difficulty through its publically accessible web-based tool that puts current and concise climate change science at the fingertips of forest planners and managers. A collaborative product of the USDA Forest Service Research Stations and the National Forest System, TACCIMO integrates peer-reviewed research with management and planning options through search and reporting tools that connect land managers with information they can trust. TACCIMO highlights elements from the wealth of climate change science with attention to what natural resource planners and managers need through a searchable repository of over 4,000 effects of climate change and close to 1,000 adaptive management options, all excerpted from a growing body of peer-reviewed scientific literature. A geospatial mapping application provides downscaled climate data for the nation and other spatially explicit models relevant to evaluating climate change impacts on forests. Report generators assist users in capturing outputs specific to a given location and resource area in a consistent and organized manner. For USDA Forest Service users, science findings can be readily linked with management conditions and capabilities from national forest management plans. The development of TACCIMO was guided by interactions with natural resource professionals, resulting in a flexible framework that allows new information to be added routinely and existing information to be reorganized as new science emerges and management needs change. TACCIMO is currently being used to support climate change science assessments for national forest land and management plan revisions in El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico, the Southern Sierra national forests in California, and Francis Marion National Forest in South Carolina. The tool is also being actively used by state, extension, and private natural resource professionals for climate change education and outreach. For all users, TACCIMO provides a fast, concise, and creditable starting point to guide critical thinking, additional analysis, and expert consultation to support all aspects of natural resource management decision making.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Ireland, Kathryn B; Hansen, Andrew J; Keane, Robert E; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

Putting Climate Adaptation on the Map: Developing Spatial Management Strategies for Whitebark Pine in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ireland, Kathryn B.; Hansen, Andrew J.; Keane, Robert E.; Legg, Kristin; Gump, Robert L.

2018-06-01

Natural resource managers face the need to develop strategies to adapt to projected future climates. Few existing climate adaptation frameworks prescribe where to place management actions to be most effective under anticipated future climate conditions. We developed an approach to spatially allocate climate adaptation actions and applied the method to whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). WBP is expected to be vulnerable to climate-mediated shifts in suitable habitat, pests, pathogens, and fire. We spatially prioritized management actions aimed at mitigating climate impacts to WBP under two management strategies: (1) current management and (2) climate-informed management. The current strategy reflected management actions permissible under existing policy and access constraints. Our goal was to understand how consideration of climate might alter the placement of management actions, so the climate-informed strategies did not include these constraints. The spatial distribution of actions differed among the current and climate-informed management strategies, with 33-60% more wilderness area prioritized for action under climate-informed management. High priority areas for implementing management actions include the 1-8% of the GYE where current and climate-informed management agreed, since this is where actions are most likely to be successful in the long-term and where current management permits implementation. Areas where climate-informed strategies agreed with one another but not with current management (6-22% of the GYE) are potential locations for experimental testing of management actions. Our method for spatial climate adaptation planning is applicable to any species for which information regarding climate vulnerability and climate-mediated risk factors is available.

RCOF in European region: current status and future perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hovsepyan, A.

2010-09-01

Regional Climate Outlook Forums are a key component of WMO WCASP/CLIPS activities. The RCOF process pioneered in Africa in late 1990s, since then it spread worldwide, and at present climate outlook forums are being conducted nearly in all regions all over the world. The RCOF brings together experts from a climatologically homogeneous region and provides consensus based climate prediction and information, which has critical socio-economic significance. This information has been applied to reducing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable development. The RCOF process has facilitated a better understanding of the links between the past, current and future evolution of the climate system and its consequences for Members' socio-economic activities. RCOFs have greatly enhanced interactions and exchange of information between providers and users of climate information. In addition, RCOFs contribute substantially to training and capacity building in the regions targeted at. In RA VI the RCOF process was launched in 2008. The South-East European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) mechanism covers mainly countries of South East Europe and Caucasus. Two SEECOFs have been successfully conducted in 2008 and 2009: SEECOF-I took place in Zagreb/Croatia in June 2008 and SEECOF-II was hosted by Hungary, Budapest, in November 2009. SEECOF-III was held as an online COF. Nevertheless, the RCOF mechanism in RA VI still needs substantial support in order to strengthen the process, to better involve the participating countries and users, to sharpen the communication of the consensus forecasts to build trust amongst the user communities, and most importantly to achieve sustainability, which is one of the priority tasks of the RAVI Working Group on Climate and Hydrology (WG CH). Through the Task Team on Regional Climate Outlook Forums (TT RCOF) the WG CH has taken responsibility for the co-ordination of the RCOF process in RA VI, in order to extend it to other parts of RA VI region, strengthen climate change section in the SEECOF, to better involve the participating countries and users, to sharpen the communication of the consensus forecasts in order to build trust amongst the user communities, and most importantly to achieve sustainability of RCOF in Europe.

U.S. Geological Survey Ground-Water Climate Response Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2007-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey serves the Nation by providing reliable hydrologic information used by others to manage the Nation's water resources. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) measures more than 20,000 wells each year for a variety of objectives as part of Federal programs and in cooperation with State and local agencies. Water-level data are collected using consistent data-collection and quality-control methods. A small subset of these wells meets the criteria necessary to be included in a 'Climate Response Network' of wells designed to illustrate the response of the ground-water system to climate variations nationwide. The primary purpose of the Climate Response Network is to portray the effect of climate on ground-water levels in unconfined aquifers or near-surface confined aquifers that are minimally affected by pumping or other anthropogenic stresses. The Climate Response Network Web site (http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/) is the official USGS Web site for illustrating current ground-water conditions in the United States and Puerto Rico. The Climate Response Network Web pages provide information on ground-water conditions at a variety of scales. A national map provides a broad overview of water-table conditions across the Nation. State maps provide a more local picture of ground-water conditions. Site pages provide the details about a specific well.

NOAA's Role in Sustaining Global Ocean Observations: Future Plans for OAR's Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, James; Legler, David; Piotrowicz, Stephen; Raymond, Megan; Smith, Emily; Tedesco, Kathy; Thurston, Sidney

2017-04-01

The Ocean Observing and Monitoring Division (OOMD, formerly the Climate Observation Division) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office provides long-term, high-quality global observations, climate information and products for researchers, forecasters, assessments and other users of environmental information. In this context, OOMD-supported activities serve a foundational role in an enterprise that aims to advance 1) scientific understanding, 2) monitoring and prediction of climate and 3) understanding of potential impacts to enable a climate resilient society. Leveraging approximately 50% of the Global Ocean Observing System, OOMD employs an internationally-coordinated, multi-institution global strategy that brings together data from multiple platforms including surface drifting buoys, Argo profiling floats, flux/transport moorings (RAMA, PIRATA, OceanSITES), GLOSS tide gauges, SOOP-XBT and SOOP-CO2, ocean gliders and repeat hydrographic sections (GO-SHIP). OOMD also engages in outreach, education and capacity development activities to deliver training on the social-economic applications of ocean data. This presentation will highlight recent activities and plans for 2017 and beyond.

Information transfer and synchronization among the scales of climate variability: clues for understanding anomalies and extreme events?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan

2017-04-01

Deeper understanding of complex dynamics of the Earth atmosphere and climate is inevitable for sustainable development, mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change and for prediction of and resilience against extreme events. Traditional (linear) approaches cannot explain or even detect nonlinear interactions of dynamical processes evolving on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Combination of nonlinear dynamics and information theory explains synchronization as a process of adjustment of information rates [1] and causal relations (à la Granger) as information transfer [2]. Information born in dynamical complexity or information transferred among systems on a way to synchronization might appear as an abstract quantity, however, information transfer is tied to a transfer of mass and energy, as demonstrated in a recent study using directed (causal) climate networks [2]. Recently, an information transfer across scales of atmospheric dynamics has been observed [3]. In particular, a climate oscillation with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as a factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [4]. In the dynamics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, three principal time scales have been identified: the annual cycle (AC), the quasibiennial (QB) mode(s) and the low-frequency (LF) variability. An intricate causal network of information flows among these modes helps to understand the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, characterized by synchronization of the QB modes and AC, and modulation of the QB amplitude by the LF mode. The latter also influences the phase of the AC and QB modes. These examples provide an inspiration for a discussion how novel data analysis methods, based on topics from nonlinear dynamical systems, their synchronization, (Granger) causality and information transfer, in combination with dynamical and statistical models of different complexity, can help in understanding and prediction of climate variability on different scales and in estimating probability of occurrence of extreme climate events. [1] M. Palus, V. Komarek, Z. Hrncir, K. Sterbova, Phys. Rev. E, 63(4), 046211 (2001) http://www.cs.cas.cz/mp/epr/sir1-a.html [2] J. Hlinka, N. Jajcay, D. Hartman, M. Palus, Smooth Information Flow in Temperature Climate Network Reflects Mass Transport, submitted to Chaos. http://www.cs.cas.cz/mp/epr/vetry-a.html [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) http://www.cs.cas.cz/mp/epr/xf1-a.html [4] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Geophys. Res. Lett. 43(2), 902-909 (2016) http://www.cs.cas.cz/mp/epr/xfgrl1-a.html

Climate Change Student Summits: A Model that Works (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.

2013-12-01

The C2S2: Climate Change Student Summit project has completed four years of activities plus a year-long longitudinal evaluation with demonstrated positive impacts beyond the life of the project on both students and teachers. This presentation will share the lessons learned about implementing this climate change science education program and suggest that it is a successful model that can be used to scale up from its Midwestern roots to achieve measurable national impact. A NOAA Environmental Literacy grant allowed ANDRILL (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) to grow a 2008 pilot program involving 2 Midwestern sites, to a program 4 years later involving 10 sites. The excellent geographical coverage included 9 of the U.S. National Climate Assessment regions defined by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Through the delivery of two professional development (PD) workshops, a unique opportunity was provided for both formal and informal educators to engage their classrooms/audiences in understanding the complexities of climate change. For maximum contact hours, the PD experience was extended throughout the school year through the use of an online grouphub. Student teams were involved in a creative investigative science research and presentation experience culminating in a Climate Change Student Summit, an on-site capstone event including a videoconference connecting all sites. The success of this program was based on combining multiple aspects, such as encouraging the active involvement of scientists and early career researchers both in the professional development workshops and in the Student Summit. Another key factor was the close working relationships between informal and formal science entities, including involvement of informal science learning facilities and informal science education leaders. The program also created cutting-edge curriculum materials titled the ELF, (Environmental Literacy Framework with a focus on climate change), providing an earth systems approach to climate change education which have been successfully integrated into existing curricula in grades 4-12, as well as at numerous science museums.

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

2014-12-01

The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying methodologies, and selected applications with the California water resources system.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

DataStreme Earth's Climate System: Building a Climate Literate Society through Effective Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

Effective partnerships are key to increasing climate and overall environmental literacy. Financial support from NSF, NASA, and NOAA has allowed the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to offer DataStreme courses for almost 20 years. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. A long-standing partnership with State University of New York's The College at Brockport gives teachers the opportunity to receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits upon successful completion of each DataStreme course and construction of a Plan of Action for educational peer-training. DataStreme ECS investigates the fundamental science of Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. The course provides participants with the knowledge to make informed climate decisions. In fact, according to a recent three-year study conducted by AMS, 98% of DataStreme ECS participants reported an increase in environmental literacy as a result of the course. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and ECS content has been improved because of AMS partnerships with NOAA and NASA. Specifically, hundreds of NASA and NOAA scientists and faculty from numerous institutions both domestic and abroad have contributed and reviewed DataStreme ECS content. Additional collaborations with Consortium for Ocean Leadership and the U.S. Ice Drilling Program greatly improved the course's paleoclimate content. Looking ahead, the Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA's Climate Program Office will further bolster the course this fall. These partnerships have resulted in a powerful, content-rich climate science course for K-12 teachers, building the foundation to a climate literate society.

Understanding the Role of Biology in the Global Environment: NASA'S Mission to Planet Earth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Townsend, William F.

1996-01-01

NASA has long used the unique perspective of space as a means of expanding our understanding of how the Earth's environment functions. In particular, the linkages between land, air, water, and life-the elements of the Earth system-are a focus for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. This approach, called Earth system science, blends together fields like meteorology, biology, oceanography, and atmospheric science. Mission to Planet Earth uses observations from satellites, aircraft, balloons, and ground researchers as the basis for analysis of the elements of the Earth system, the interactions between those elements, and possible changes over the coming years and decades. This information is helping scientists improve our understanding of how natural processes affect us and how we might be affecting them. Such studies will yield improved weather forecasts, tools for managing agriculture and forests, information for fishermen and local planners, and, eventually, an enhanced ability to predict how the climate will change in the future. NASA has designed Mission to Planet Earth to focus on five primary themes: Land Cover and Land Use Change; Seasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction; Natural Hazards; Long-Term Climate Variability; and Atmosphere Ozone.

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

2010-06-01

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

Linking research, education and public engagement in geoscience: Leadership and strategic partnerships (invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harcourt, P.

2017-12-01

Addressing the urgent issue of climate change requires mitigation and adaptation actions on individual to global scales, and appropriate action must be based upon geoscience literacy across population sectors. The NSF-funded MADE CLEAR (Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment, and Research) project provides a coordinated approach to embed climate change into education programs at the university level, in formal K12 classrooms, and among informal educators. We have worked with state agencies, university systems, non-profit organizations, and community groups to establish and support research-based education about climate change. In this panel I will describe how MADE CLEAR approached the task of infusing climate change education across sectors in the highly diverse states of Delaware and Maryland. I will share the characteristics of our strongest alliances, an analysis of significant barriers to climate change education, and our perspective on the outlook for the future of climate change education.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

2015-01-01

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Adding Semantics and OPM Ontology for the Provenance of Multi-sensor Merged Climate Data Records. Now What About Reproducibility?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, H.; Wilson, B. D.; Manipon, G.; Pan, L.; Fetzer, E.

2011-12-01

Multi-decadal climate data records are critical to studying climate variability and change. These often also require merging data from multiple instruments such as those from NASA's A-Train that contain measurements covering a wide range of atmospheric conditions and phenomena. Multi-decadal climate data record of water vapor measurements from sensors on A-Train, operational weather, and other satellites are being assembled from existing data sources, or produced from well-established methods published in peer-reviewed literature. However, the immense volume and inhomogeneity of data often requires an "exploratory computing" approach to product generation where data is processed in a variety of different ways with varying algorithms, parameters, and code changes until an acceptable intermediate product is generated. This process is repeated until a desirable final merged product can be generated. Typically the production legacy is often lost due to the complexity of processing steps that were tried along the way. The data product information associated with source data, processing methods, parameters used, intermediate product outputs, and associated materials are often hidden in each of the trials and scattered throughout the processing system(s). We will discuss methods to help users better capture and explore the production legacy of the data, metadata, ancillary files, code, and computing environment changes used during the production of these merged and multi-sensor data products. By leveraging existing semantic and provenance tools, we can capture sufficient information to enable users to track, perform faceted searches, and visualize the provenance of the products and processing lineage. We will explore if sufficient provenance information can be captured to enable science reproducibility of these climate data records.

A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). Formore » all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.« less

Chapter 11: City-Wide Collaborations for Urban Climate Education

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Steven; Hoffstadt, Rita Mukherjee; Allen, Lauren B.; Crowley, Kevin; Bader, Daniel A.; Horton, Radley M.

2014-01-01

Although cities cover only 2 percent of the Earth's surface, more than 50 percent of the world's people live in urban environments, collectively consuming 75 percent of the Earth's resources. Because of their population densities, reliance on infrastructure, and role as centers of industry, cities will be greatly impacted by, and will play a large role in, the reduction or exacerbation of climate change. However, although urban dwellers are becoming more aware of the need to reduce their carbon usage and to implement adaptation strategies, education efforts on these strategies have not been comprehensive. To meet the needs of an informed and engaged urban population, a more systemic, multiplatform and coordinated approach is necessary. The Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP) is designed to explore and address this challenge. Spanning four cities-Philadelphia, New York, Pittsburgh, and Washington, DC-the project is a partnership between the Franklin Institute, the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, the University of Pittsburgh Learning Research and Development Center, Carnegie Museum of Natural History, New York Hall of Science, and the Marian Koshland Science Museum of the National Academy of Sciences. The partnership is developing a comprehensive, interdisciplinary network to educate urban residents about climate science and the urban impacts of climate change.

78 FR 58343 - Information Collection Activities: Visitor Perceptions of Climate Change in U.S. National Parks

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-23

....NM0000] Information Collection Activities: Visitor Perceptions of Climate Change in U.S. National Parks... Information Collection 1024-NEW, Visitor Perceptions of Climate Change in U.S. National Parks in the subject line. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Angie Richman, Communication Specialist, Climate Change Response...

NCAR activities related to translating climate and weather information into infectious-disease and other public-health early warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, T.; Monaghan, A.; Hopson, T.

2010-09-01

The atmosphere can influence the spread of human and agricultural infectious diseases through a number of different mechanisms, including the effect of the atmosphere on the health of the pathogen itself, the health and number of disease vectors, human behavior, wind transport, and flooding. Through knowledge of the statistical or physical relationships between disease incidence, for example outbreaks, and weather or climate conditions, it is possible to translate predictions of the atmosphere into predictions of disease spread or incidence. Medium range forecasts of weeks can allow redistribution of vaccines and medical personnel to locations that will be in greatest need. Inter-seasonal forecasts, e.g. based on the ENSO cycle, can provide long-lead-time information for disease early-warning systems, which can guide the manufacture of vaccines and inform aid agencies about future requirements. And knowledge of longer-term trends in climate conditions, associated, for example, with increases in green-house gases, can be used for development of infectious-disease mitigation and prevention policies. Because of the existence of complex physical, biological, and societal aspects to the links between atmospheric conditions and disease, prediction systems must be constructed based on knowledge of multiple disciplines. To be described in the presentation are activities at the National Center for Atmospheric Research that involve the coupling of atmospheric models with infectious-disease models and decision-support systems. These include 1) the use of operational multi-week weather forecasts to estimate the spatial and temporal variability of the threat of bacterial meningitis in West Africa, 2) climate and spatial risk modeling of human plague in Uganda, 3) a study of how climate variability and human landscape modification interact to influence key aspects of both mosquito vector ecology and human behavior, and how they influence the increased incidence of dengue fever in Mexico, and 4) development of new knowledge about how extreme heat events across the United States and parts of Canada result from changing climate, land use and the interactions between them. In addition, NCAR has an arrangement with the US Centers for Disease Control wherein postdoctoral students are shared between the two organizations in order to provide experiences that will foster research at the interface between climate science and the study of infectious diseases.

Managing Technological Change in Libraries and Information Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klobas, Jane E.

1990-01-01

Examines factors to be considered in the management of technological change in libraries and information services. The organizational climate for change is discussed, and factors to consider when developing a strategy for introducing a new product, service, or system are described, including leadership, goals, political processes, marketing, and…

A Prototype Climate Information System

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-06-01

estimates of cloud amount. J. Geophys. Res., 89, 5370-5380. Stowe, L. L., C. G. Wellemeyer, T. F. Eck , H. Y. M. Yeh, and the Nimbus-7 Cloud Data...Technical Information Center 2 Cameron Station Alexandria, VA 22304-6145 Library, Code 0142 2 Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, CA 93943-5002 Professor

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quesada-Montano, Beatriz; Westerberg, Ida K.; Fuentes-Andino, Diana; Hidalgo-Leon, Hugo; Halldin, Sven

2017-04-01

Long-term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information - to locally observed discharge - can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Climate variability exerts a strong influence on streamflow variability on long and short time scales, in particular in the Central-American region. We therefore explored the use of climate variability knowledge to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty of a conceptual hydrological model applied to a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. We then assessed how well climate-based constraints applied at long-term, inter-annual and intra-annual time scales could constrain model uncertainty. Finally, we compared the climate-based constraints to a constraint on low-flow statistics based on information obtained from global maps. We evaluated our method in terms of the ability of the model to reproduce the observed hydrograph and the active catchment processes in terms of two efficiency measures, a statistical consistency measure, a spread measure and 17 hydrological signatures. We found that climate variability knowledge was useful for reducing model uncertainty, in particular, unrealistic representation of deep groundwater processes. The constraints based on global maps of low-flow statistics provided more constraining information than those based on climate variability, but the latter rejected slow rainfall-runoff representations that the low flow statistics did not reject. The use of such knowledge, together with information on low-flow statistics and constraints on parameter relationships showed to be useful to constrain model uncertainty for an - assumed to be - ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for reconstructing long-term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America, and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

Pilot climate data system user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reph, M. G.; Treinish, L. A.; Bloch, L.

1984-01-01

Instructions for using the Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS), an interactive, scientific data management system for locating, obtaining, manipulating, and displaying climate-research data are presented. The PCDS currently provides this supoort for approximately twenty data sets. Figures that illustrate the terminal displays which a user sees when he/she runs the PCDS and some examples of the output from this system are included. The capabilities which are described in detail allow a user to perform the following: (1) obtain comprehensive descriptions of a number of climate parameter data sets and the associated sensor measurements from which they were derived; (2) obtain detailed information about the temporal coverage and data volume of data sets which are readily accessible via the PCDS; (3) extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time range and geographic location, and output the data to tape, user terminal, system printer, or online disk files in a special data-set-independent format; (4) access and manipulate the data in these data-set-independent files, performing such functions as combining the data, subsetting the data, and averaging the data; and (5) create various graphical representations of the data stored in the data-set-independent files.

A Simple Exploration of Complexity at the Climate-Weather-Social-Conflict Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, M.

2017-12-01

The conceptualization, exploration, and prediction of interplay between climate, weather, important resources, and social and economic - so political - human behavior is cast, and analyzed, in terms familiar from statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics. A simple threshold toy model is presented which emulates human tendencies to either actively engage in responses deriving, in part, from environmental circumstances or to maintain some semblance of status quo, formulated based on efforts drawn from the sociophysics literature - more specifically vis a vis a model akin to spin glass depictions of human behavior - with threshold/switching of individual and collective dynamics influenced by relatively more detailed weather and land surface model (hydrological) analyses via a land data assimilation system (a custom rendition of the NASA GSFC Land Information System). Parameters relevant to human systems' - e.g., individual and collective switching - sensitivity to hydroclimatology are explored towards investigation of overall system behavior; i.e., fixed points/equilibria, oscillations, and bifurcations of systems composed of human interactions and responses to climate and weather through, e.g., agriculture. We discuss implications in terms of conceivable impacts of climate change and associated natural disasters on socioeconomics, politics, and power transfer, drawing from relatively recent literature concerning human conflict.

Climate Change and Agriculture in the U.S.: Effects and Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Rippey, B.; Walthall, C. L.; Hatfield, J.; Backlund, P. W.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in the United States has followed a path of continual adaptation to a wide range of factors throughout its history. However, observational evidence, supported by an understanding of the physical climate system, shows that human-induced climate change is underway in the U.S. and even now causing changes for which there is no historical reference for producers. Temperatures have increased and precipitation patterns have changed; the incidence, frequency, and extent of pest infestations have been altered, as well as the natural resource base (water, air, and soils) upon which production depends. Each factor challenges agricultural management as atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases rise. These trends are likely to continue over the next century. Importantly, a gap exists between U.S. agricultural producers and managers' needs related to climate-driven problems and the information that research currently offers them. In the past, agricultural research into climate change effects has largely focused on mean values of precipitation and temperature. Today's management requirements, however, often demand immediate response on shorter time scales to address abrupt, often novel needs. Further complicating this reality, future decisions will likely require even greater emphasis on managing under increasing levels of uncertainty, and planning for and adjusting to the extremes. Research is moving to better address these emerging issues for the relevant timescales and parameters in order to allow the formulation of improved and resilient management strategies that apply to a future in which past experience has become less applicable. A climate-ready U.S. agricultural system requires easy access to useable climate knowledge and technical resources, improved climate risk management strategies, new processes to support effective adaptive actions, and the development of sustainable production systems resilient to climate effects. Mainstreaming climate knowledge improves adaptive capacity of the agricultural system by ensuring that land managers, technical advisors, researchers, private businesspeople, government program managers, and policymakers are aware of current and projected climate impacts and can access best management practices to reduce risks and capture opportunities.

A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System based on contemporary Satellite and other Observations for Assessing Regional Climate Model Fidelity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waliser, D. E.; Kim, J.; Mattman, C.; Goodale, C.; Hart, A.; Zimdars, P.; Lean, P.

2011-12-01

Evaluation of climate models against observations is an essential part of assessing the impact of climate variations and change on regionally important sectors and improving climate models. Regional climate models (RCMs) are of a particular concern. RCMs provide fine-scale climate needed by the assessment community via downscaling global climate model projections such as those contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) that form one aspect of the quantitative basis of the IPCC Assessment Reports. The lack of reliable fine-resolution observational data and formal tools and metrics has represented a challenge in evaluating RCMs. Recent satellite observations are particularly useful as they provide a wealth of information and constraints on many different processes within the climate system. Due to their large volume and the difficulties associated with accessing and using contemporary observations, however, these datasets have been generally underutilized in model evaluation studies. Recognizing this problem, NASA JPL and UCLA have developed the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) to help make satellite observations, in conjunction with in-situ and reanalysis datasets, more readily accessible to the regional modeling community. The system includes a central database (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Database: RCMED) to store multiple datasets in a common format and codes for calculating and plotting statistical metrics to assess model performance (Regional Climate Model Evaluation Tool: RCMET). This allows the time taken to compare model data with satellite observations to be reduced from weeks to days. RCMES is a component of the recent ExArch project, an international effort for facilitating the archive and access of massive amounts data for users using cloud-based infrastructure, in this case as applied to the study of climate and climate change. This presentation will describe RCMES and demonstrate its utility using examples from RCMs applied to the southwest US as well as to Africa based on output from the CORDEX activity. Application of RCMES to the evaluation of multi-RCM hindcast for CORDEX-Africa will be presented in a companion paper in A41.

Satellite Remote Sensing is Key to Water Cycle Integrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, T.

2016-12-01

To promote effective multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary collaboration based on coordinated and integrated efforts, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is now developing a "GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator (WCI)", which integrates "Earth observations", "modeling", "data and information", "management systems" and "education systems". GEOSS/WCI sets up "work benches" by which partners can share data, information and applications in an interoperable way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual understanding and work together effectively to ultimately respond to issues of both mitigation and adaptation. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or phenomenological space where experts and managers collaborate to use information to address a problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary coordination and integration. GEOSS/WCI archives various satellite data to provide various hydrological information such as cloud, rainfall, soil moisture, or land-surface snow. These satellite products were validated using land observation in-situ data. Water cycle models can be developed by coupling in-situ and satellite data. River flows and other hydrological parameters can be simulated and validated by in-situ data. Model outputs from weather-prediction, seasonal-prediction, and climate-prediction models are archived. Some of these model outputs are archived on an online basis, but other models, e.g., climate-prediction models are archived on an offline basis. After models are evaluated and biases corrected, the outputs can be used as inputs into the hydrological models for predicting the hydrological parameters. Additionally, we have already developed a data-assimilation system by combining satellite data and the models. This system can improve our capability to predict hydrological phenomena. The WCI can provide better predictions of the hydrological parameters for integrated water resources management (IWRM) and also assess the impact of climate change and calculate adaptation needs.

The Lifecycles of Drought: Informing Responses Across Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Schubert, S. D.

2014-12-01

Drought is a slow-onset hazard that is a normal part of climate. Drought onset and demise are difficult to determine. Impacts are mostly nonstructural, spread over large geographical areas, and can persist long after precipitation deficits end. These factors hinder development of accurate, timely estimates of drought severity and resultant responses. Drivers of drought range from SST anomalies and global scale atmospheric response, through regional forcing and local land-surface feedbacks. Key climatological questions related to drought risk assessment, perception and management include, "Does a drought end by a return to normal precipitation; how much moisture is required and over what period; can the end of a drought be defined by the diminishing impacts e.g. soil moisture, reservoir volumes; will precipitation patterns on which management systems rely, change in the future?" Effective early warning systems inform strategic responses that anticipate crises and crisis evolution across climate timescales. While such "early information" is critical for defining event onset, it is even more critical for identifying the potential for increases in severity. Many social and economic systems have buffers in place to respond to onset (storage, transfers and purchase of grain) but lack response capabilities as drought intensifies, as buffers are depleted. Throughout the drought lifecycle (and between events), monitoring, research and risk assessments are required to: Map decision-making processes and resource capabilities including degradation of water and ecosystems Place multiple climate and land surface indicators within a consistent triggering framework (e.g. climate and vegetation mapping) before critical thresholds are reached Identify policies and practices that impede or enable the flow of information, through policy gaming and other exercises The presentation will outline the capabilities and framework needed to ensure improved scientific inputs to preparedness and adaptation. Lessons will be drawn from recent and ongoing events in California, the Midwest, and globally.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Novel Tools for Climate Change Learning and Responding in Earth Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparrow, Elena; Brunacini, Jessica; Pfirman, Stephanie

2015-04-01

Several innovative, polar focused activities and tools including a polar hub website (http://thepolarhub.org) have been developed for use in formal and informal earth science or STEM education by the Polar Learning and Responding (PoLAR) Climate Change Education Partnership (consisting of climate scientists, experts in the learning sciences and education practitioners). In seeking to inform understanding of and response to climate change, these tools and activities range from increasing awareness to informing decisions about climate change, from being used in classrooms (by undergraduate students as well as by pre-college students or by teachers taking online climate graduate courses) to being used in the public arena (by stakeholders, community members and the general public), and from using low technology (card games such as EcoChains- Arctic Crisis, a food web game or SMARTIC - Strategic Management of Resources in Times of Change, an Arctic marine spatial planning game) to high technology (Greenify Network - a mobile real world action game that fosters sustainability and allows players to meaningfully address climate change in their daily lives, or the Polar Explorer Data Visualization Tablet App that allows individuals to explore data collected by scientists and presented for the everyday user through interactive maps and visualizations, to ask questions and go on an individualized tour of polar regions and their connections to the rest of the world). Games are useful tools in integrative and applied learning, in gaining practical and intellectual skills, and in systems thinking. Also, as part of the PoLAR Partnership, a Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was collaboratively developed and conducted, that can be used as a model for engaging and representing indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools and solutions building. Future camps are planned with Alaska Native Elders, educators including classroom teachers, natural resource managers, community members, leaders, and climate scientists as participants.

Climate related natural hazards management in the vulnerable regions of Uzbekistan - experiences in the frame of projects Climate Risk Management in Uzbekistan (CRM-Uz) and Water in Central Asia (CAWa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merkushkin, Alexander; Gafurov, Abror; Agaltseva, Natalya; Pak, Alexander; Mannig, Birgit; Paeth, Heiko; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy

2014-05-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards under conditions of observed climate change in Uzbekistan has become challenging concern and shows the need to develop more effective climate risk mechanisms towards improving the security of society and sustainable development. In the framework of presented study, the importance of drought monitoring and methodologies for early warning for such purposes in Uzbekistan are demonstrated. For the conditions of Uzbekistan, droughts are most dangerous climate related natural phenomenon. Therefore, the CRM-Uz Project on Climate Risk Management was established with focus on reducing climate risks, strengthening adaptive capacity for stimulating the development of early warning mechanisms, as well as to build up the basis for long-term investments. This serves to increase resilience to climate impacts in the country. In the frame of the CRM-Uz Project, Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), has been developed and implemented in one of the southern provinces of Uzbekistan (Kashkadarya). The main task of DEWS is to provide population with information on the possibility of upcoming drought season in advance. DEWS is used for the assessment, monitoring, prevention, early warning and decision making in this region. Such early warning system provides the required information to undertake appropriate measures against drought and to mitigate its adverse effects to society. It is clear that during years with expected drought the hydrological forecasts become much more important. Complex mathematical model which simulates of run-off formation as a basis of DEWS provides the seasonal hydrological forecasts that are used to inform all concerned sectors, especially the agricultural sector on water availability during the vegetation period. In the frame of cooperation with German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) within the CAWa Project, the DEWS was extended through implementation of MODSNOW - the operational tool for snow cover monitoring at the Drought Monitoring Centre at UzHydromet. The upgrade of the DEWS withMODSNOW strengthens DEWS's capacity in terms of improvement the hydrological forecasting. Moreover, based on climate scenarios provided within the CAWa project by the University of Würzburg, the regional hydrological model AISHF was used to asses medium and long term water availability in the Kashkadarya River which indicates a reduction of water resources in the selected basin in the future.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Information-computational system for storage, search and analytical processing of environmental datasets based on the Semantic Web technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, A.; Gordov, E.; Okladnikov, I.

2009-04-01

In this report the results of the work devoted to the development of working model of the software system for storage, semantically-enabled search and retrieval along with processing and visualization of environmental datasets containing results of meteorological and air pollution observations and mathematical climate modeling are presented. Specially designed metadata standard for machine-readable description of datasets related to meteorology, climate and atmospheric pollution transport domains is introduced as one of the key system components. To provide semantic interoperability the Resource Description Framework (RDF, http://www.w3.org/RDF/) technology means have been chosen for metadata description model realization in the form of RDF Schema. The final version of the RDF Schema is implemented on the base of widely used standards, such as Dublin Core Metadata Element Set (http://dublincore.org/), Directory Interchange Format (DIF, http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/User/difguide/difman.html), ISO 19139, etc. At present the system is available as a Web server (http://climate.risks.scert.ru/metadatabase/) based on the web-portal ATMOS engine [1] and is implementing dataset management functionality including SeRQL-based semantic search as well as statistical analysis and visualization of selected data archives [2,3]. The core of the system is Apache web server in conjunction with Tomcat Java Servlet Container (http://jakarta.apache.org/tomcat/) and Sesame Server (http://www.openrdf.org/) used as a database for RDF and RDF Schema. At present statistical analysis of meteorological and climatic data with subsequent visualization of results is implemented for such datasets as NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, Reanalysis NCEP/DOE AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25, ECMWF ERA-40 and local measurements obtained from meteorological stations on the territory of Russia. This functionality is aimed primarily at finding of main characteristics of regional climate dynamics. The proposed system represents a step in the process of development of a distributed collaborative information-computational environment to support multidisciplinary investigations of Earth regional environment [4]. Partial support of this work by SB RAS Integration Project 34, SB RAS Basic Program Project 4.5.2.2, APN Project CBA2007-08NSY and FP6 Enviro-RISKS project (INCO-CT-2004-013427) is acknowledged. References 1. E.P. Gordov, V.N. Lykosov, and A.Z. Fazliev. Web portal on environmental sciences "ATMOS" // Advances in Geosciences. 2006. Vol. 8. p. 33 - 38. 2. Gordov E.P., Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G. Development of elements of web based information-computational system supporting regional environment processes investigations // Journal of Computational Technologies, Vol. 12, Special Issue #3, 2007, pp. 20 - 28. 3. Okladnikov I.G., Titov A.G. Melnikova V.N., Shulgina T.M. Web-system for processing and visualization of meteorological and climatic data // Journal of Computational Technologies, Vol. 13, Special Issue #3, 2008, pp. 64 - 69. 4. Gordov E.P., Lykosov V.N. Development of information-computational infrastructure for integrated study of Siberia environment // Journal of Computational Technologies, Vol. 12, Special Issue #2, 2007, pp. 19 - 30.

Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, K. S.

2012-12-01

The southeast (SEUS; AL, AR, GA, FL, KY, LA, NC, SC, TN, E. TX) faces the greatest impacts as a result of climate change of any region in the U.S. which presents considerable and costly adaptation challenges. Paradoxically, people in the SEUS hold attitudes and perceptions that are more dismissive of climate change than those of any other region. An additional mismatch exists between the manner in which climate science is generally communicated and the underlying core values and beliefs held by a large segment of people in the SEUS. As a result, people frequently misinterpret and/or distrust information sources, inhibiting efforts to productively discuss and consider climate change and related impacts on human and environmental systems, and possible solutions and outcomes. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project includes an extensive network of partners throughout the SEUS from faith, agriculture, culturally diverse, leisure, and K-20 educator communities that aim to address this educational need through a shared vision. CLiPSE has conducted a Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) to determine the knowledge and perceptions of individuals in and beyond the CLiPSE network. The descriptive results of the CSS indicate that religion, predominantly Protestantism, plays a minor role in climate knowledge and perceptions. Likewise, political affiliation plays a minimal role in climate knowledge and perceptions between religions. However, when Protestants were broken out by political affiliation, statistically significant differences (t(30)=2.44, p=0.02) in knowledge related to the causes of climate change exist. Those Protestants affiliated with the Democratic Party (n=206) tended to maintain a statistically significant stronger knowledge of the causes of global climate change than their Republican counterparts. When SEUS educator (n=277) group was only considered, similar trends were evidenced, indicating that strongly held beliefs potentially influence classroom climate instruction. In order to assist this educator group, CLiPSE has aligned a sub-set of the Climate and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) education resources to 11 SEUS state standards in order to better enable educators to implement climate topics in their classrooms. As a potential method to address the unique belief systems in the SEUS, CLiPSE has determined that the best way to engage individuals in the SEUS on the topic of climate change is to invite them into an honest dialogue surrounding climate. To facilitate these conversations effectively, CLiPSE utilizes a dialogical community model that values diversity, encourages respect for one another, recognizes and articulates viewpoints, and prioritizes understanding over resolution. CLiPSE emphasizes people's values and beliefs as they relate to climate change information. Results from pilot studies indicate that this is a promising method to bring together diverse individuals on the climate change topic and initiate the conversation about this very important issue that can often be considered "taboo" in the SEUS.

Pilot climate data system: A state-of-the-art capability in scientific data management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, P. H.; Treinish, L. A.; Novak, L. V.

1983-01-01

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) was developed by the Information Management Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to manage a large collection of climate-related data of interest to the research community. The PCDS now provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, access methods, graphical displays and statistical calculations for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Data manipulation capabilities were developed to permit researchers to easily combine or compare data. The current capabilities of the PCDS include many tools for the statistical survey of climate data. A climate researcher can examine any data set of interest via flexible utilities to create a variety of two- and three-dimensional displays, including vector plots, scatter diagrams, histograms, contour plots, surface diagrams and pseudo-color images. The graphics and statistics subsystems employ an intermediate data storage format which is data-set independent. Outside of the graphics system there exist other utilities to select, filter, list, compress, and calculate time-averages and variances for any data of interest. The PCDS now fully supports approximately twenty different data sets and is being used on a trial basis by several different in-house research grounds.

Enhancements to an Agriculture-land Modeling System - FEST-C and Its Applications

EPA Science Inventory

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) system was originally developed to simulate daily fertilizer application information using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model across any defined CMAQ conterminous United States (U.S.) CMAQ domain and gr...

Energy Management in Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canadian School Trustees Association, Ottawa (Ontario).

This booklet provides the basic information for starting an energy conservation program. Guidelines for involving all school personnel and promoting energy conservation throughout the entire Canadian education system are provided. Outlined in the booklet are methods for climate proofing the building envelope and making the system air tight,…

Data Management and the National Climate Assessment: Best Practices, Lessons Learned, and Future Applications: A Data Quality Solution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunkel, K.; Champion, S.

2015-12-01

Data Management and the National Climate Assessment: A Data Quality Solution Sarah M. Champion and Kenneth E. Kunkel Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA), anticipated for its authoritative climate change analysis, was also a vanguard in climate communication. From the cutting-edge website to the organization of information, the Assessment content appealed to, and could be accessed by, many demographics. One such pivotal presentation of information in the NCA was the availability of complex metadata directly connected to graphical products. While the basic metadata requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, the NCA is also deemed a Highly Influential Scientific Assessment, which requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the NCA embarked on building a system for collecting and presenting metadata that not only met these requirements, but one that has since been employed in support of additional Assessments. The metadata effort for this NCA proved invaluable for many reasons, one of which being that it showcased that there is a critical need for a culture change within the scientific community to support collection and transparency of data and methods to the level produced with the NCA. Irregardless of being federally mandated, it proves to simply be a good practice in science communication. This presentation will detail the collection system built by the TSU, the improvements employed with additional Assessment products, as well as illustrate examples of successful transparency. Through this presentation, we hope to impel the discussion in support of detailed metadata becoming the cultural norm within the scientific community to support influential and highly policy-relevant documents such as the NCA.

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): Climate Science Infrastructure for Large-scale Data Management and Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.

2015-12-01

Progress in understanding and predicting climate change requires advanced tools to securely store, manage, access, process, analyze, and visualize enormous and distributed data sets. Only then can climate researchers understand the effects of climate change across all scales and use this information to inform policy decisions. With the advent of major international climate modeling intercomparisons, a need emerged within the climate-change research community to develop efficient, community-based tools to obtain relevant meteorological and other observational data, develop custom computational models, and export analysis tools for climate-change simulations. While many nascent efforts to fill these gaps appeared, they were not integrated and therefore did not benefit from collaborative development. Sharing huge data sets was difficult, and the lack of data standards prevented the merger of output data from different modeling groups. Thus began one of the largest-ever collaborative data efforts in climate science, resulting in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), which is now used to disseminate model, observational, and reanalysis data for research assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, ESGF is an open-source petabyte-level data storage and dissemination operational code-base that manages secure resources essential for climate change study. It is designed to remain robust even as data volumes grow exponentially. The internationally distributed, peer-to-peer ESGF "data cloud" archive represents the culmination of an effort that began in the late 1990s. ESGF portals are gateways to scientific data collections hosted at sites around the globe that allow the user to register and potentially access the entire ESGF network of data and services. The growing international interest in ESGF development efforts has attracted many others who want to make their data more widely available and easy to use. For example, the World Climate Research Program, which provides governance for CMIP, has now endorsed the ESGF software foundation to be used for ~70 other model intercomparison projects (MIPs), such as obs4MIPs, TAMIP, CFMIP, and GeoMIP. At present, more than 40 projects disseminate their data via ESGF.

Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.; Changnon, David

1995-05-01

The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector.

Climate for evidence informed health system policymaking in Cameroon and Uganda before and after the introduction of knowledge translation platforms: a structured review of governmental policy documents.

PubMed

Ongolo-Zogo, Pierre; Lavis, John N; Tomson, Goran; Sewankambo, Nelson K

2015-01-01

There is a scarcity of empirical data on African country climates for evidence-informed health system policymaking (EIHSP) to backup the longstanding reputation that research evidence is not valued enough by health policymakers as an information input.Herein, we assess whether and how changes have occurred in the climate for EIHSP before and after the establishment of two Knowledge Translation Platforms housed in government institutions in Cameroon and Uganda since 2006. We merged content analysis techniques and policy sciences analytical frameworks to guide this structured review of governmental policy documents geared at achieving health Millennium Development Goals. We combined i) a quantitative exploration of the usage statistics of research-related words and constructs, citations of types of evidence, and budgets allocated to research-related activities; and (ii) an interpretive exploration using a deductive thematic analysis approach to uncover changes in the institutions, interests, ideas, and external factors displaying the country climate for EIHSP. Descriptive statistics compared quantitative data across countries during the periods 2001-2006 and 2007-2012. We reviewed 54 documents, including 33 grants approved by global health initiatives. The usage statistics of research-related words and constructs showed an increase over time across countries. Varied forms of data, information, or research were instrumentally used to describe the burden and determinants of poverty and health conditions. The use of evidence syntheses to frame poverty and health problems, select strategies, or forecast the expected outcomes has remained sparse over time and across countries. The budgets for research increased over time from 28.496 to 95.467 million Euros (335%) in Cameroon and 38.064 to 58.884 million US dollars (155%) in Uganda, with most resources allocated to health sector performance monitoring and evaluation. The consistent naming of elements pertaining to the climate for EIHSP features the greater influence of external donors through policy transfer. This structured review of governmental policy documents illustrates the nascent conducive climate for EIHSP in Cameroon and Uganda and the persistent undervalue of evidence syntheses. Global and national health stakeholders should raise the profile of evidence syntheses (e.g., systematic reviews) as an information input when shaping policies and programmes.

Assessing Portuguese Guadiana Basin water management impacts under climate change and paleoclimate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maia, Rodrigo; Oliveira, Bruno; Ramos, Vanessa; Brekke, Levi

2014-05-01

The water balance in each reservoir and the subsequent, related, water resource management decisions are, presently, highly information dependent and are therefore often limited to a reactive response (even if aimed towards preventing future issues regarding the water system). Taking advantage of the availability of scenarios for climate projections, it is now possible to estimate the likely future evolution of climate which represents an important stepping stone towards proactive, adaptative, water resource management. The purpose of the present study was to assess the potential effects of climate change in terms of temperature, precipitation, runoff and water availability/scarcity for application in water resource management decisions. The analysis here presented was applied to the Portuguese portion of the Guadiana River Basin, using a combination of observed climate and runoff data and the results of the Global Climate Models. The Guadiana River Basin was represented by its reservoirs on the Portuguese portion of the basin and, for the future period, an estimated value of the inflows originating in the Spanish part of the Basin. The change in climate was determined in terms of relative and absolute variations of climate (precipitation and temperature) and hydrology (runoff and water balance related information). Apart from the previously referred data, an hydrological model and a water management model were applied so as to obtain an extended range of data regarding runoff generation (calibrated to observed data) and water balance in the reservoirs (considering the climate change impacts in the inflows, outflows and water consumption). The water management model was defined in order to represent the reservoirs interaction including upstream to downstream discharges and water transfers. Under the present climate change context, decision-makers and stakeholders are ever more vulnerable to the uncertainties of climate. Projected climate in the Guadiana basin indicates an increase in temperatures and a reduction of the precipitation values which go well beyond the observed values and, therefore, must be forcefully included in any realistic proactive water resource management decision. Using the results of this study it is possible to estimate future water availability and consumption satisfaction allowing for the elaboration of informed management decisions. In this study, the CMIP 3 Global Climate Models were considered for the definition of the effects of climate change, using the median and extreme tendencies based on the range of variation of the multiple climate projection scenarios. The observed climate variability, along with these model-derived tendencies, were used to inform the hydrology and water management models for the historical and future periods, respectively. Additionally, for a more comprehensive analysis on climate variability, a stochastic model was implemented based on the paleoclimate variability obtained from tree-ring records.

Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.

PubMed

Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni

2016-10-01

Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risk management perspective for climate service development - Results from a study on Finnish organizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harjanne, Atte; Haavisto, Riina; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa

2017-10-01

Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. However, understanding these processes can also create opportunities. Information can help to manage these risks and opportunities, but in order to do so, it must be in line with how risk management and decision making works. To better understand how climate risks and opportunities are reflected in different organizational processes and what types of information is needed and used, we conducted a study on the perceptions and management of weather and climate risks in Finnish organizations and on their use of weather and climate information. In addition, we collected feedback on how the existing climate information tools should be developed. Data on climate risk management was collected in an online survey and in one full-day workshop. The survey was aimed to the Finnish public and private organizations who use weather and climate data and altogether 118 responses were collected. The workshop consisted of two parts: weather and climate risk management processes in general and the development of the current information tools to further address user needs.

We found that climate risk management in organizations is quite diverse and often de-centralized and that external experts are considered the most useful sources of information. Consequently, users emphasize the need for networks of expertise and sector-specific information tools. Creating such services requires input and information sharing from the user side as well. Better temporal and spatial accuracy is naturally asked for, but users also stressed the need for transparency when it comes to communicating uncertainties, and the availability and up-to-datedness of information. Our results illustrate that weather and climate risks compete and blend in with other risks and changes perceived by the organizations and supporting information is sought from different types of sources. Thus the design and evaluation of climate services should take into account the context of existing and developing processes in organizational risk management.

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

PubMed Central

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

2014-01-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. PMID:24706833

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

PubMed

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2014-04-15

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

Predicting optimum crop designs using crop models and seasonal climate forecasts.

PubMed

Rodriguez, D; de Voil, P; Hudson, D; Brown, J N; Hayman, P; Marrou, H; Meinke, H

2018-02-02

Expected increases in food demand and the need to limit the incorporation of new lands into agriculture to curtail emissions, highlight the urgency to bridge productivity gaps, increase farmers profits and manage risks in dryland cropping. A way to bridge those gaps is to identify optimum combination of genetics (G), and agronomic managements (M) i.e. crop designs (GxM), for the prevailing and expected growing environment (E). Our understanding of crop stress physiology indicates that in hindsight, those optimum crop designs should be known, while the main problem is to predict relevant attributes of the E, at the time of sowing, so that optimum GxM combinations could be informed. Here we test our capacity to inform that "hindsight", by linking a tested crop model (APSIM) with a skillful seasonal climate forecasting system, to answer "What is the value of the skill in seasonal climate forecasting, to inform crop designs?" Results showed that the GCM POAMA-2 was reliable and skillful, and that when linked with APSIM, optimum crop designs could be informed. We conclude that reliable and skillful GCMs that are easily interfaced with crop simulation models, can be used to inform optimum crop designs, increase farmers profits and reduce risks.

Environmental factor analysis of cholera in China using remote sensing and geographical information systems.

PubMed

Xu, M; Cao, C X; Wang, D C; Kan, B; Xu, Y F; Ni, X L; Zhu, Z C

2016-04-01

Cholera is one of a number of infectious diseases that appears to be influenced by climate, geography and other natural environments. This study analysed the environmental factors of the spatial distribution of cholera in China. It shows that temperature, precipitation, elevation, and distance to the coastline have significant impact on the distribution of cholera. It also reveals the oceanic environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, which is a coastal province of China, using both remote sensing (RS) and geographical information systems (GIS). The analysis has validated the correlation between indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local number of cholera cases based on 8-year monthly data from 2001 to 2008. The results show the number of cholera cases has been strongly affected by the variables of SST, SSH and OCC. Utilizing this information, a cholera prediction model has been established based on the oceanic and climatic environmental factors. The model indicates that RS and GIS have great potential for designing an early warning system for cholera.

Developing and Evaluating Workshop Frameworks to Improve Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Alvord, C.; Joyce, L. A.; Lukas, J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Owen, G.; Udall, B.

2009-12-01

A burgeoning need for climate information is rising from a variety of stakeholders. A new federal report encourages federal resource management efforts to consider climate in assessments-leaving agency scientists and resource managers searching for appropriate data and methodologies. At the other end of the spectrum, small-scale decision makers realize the need to develop scientifically-informed climate adaptation plans, but are unclear about what science is relevant. It is becoming necessary to improve the climate literacy across all sectors. However, past examples illustrate that climate science has been insufficiently communicated, resulting in perceptions that misinform decision-making and planning. Given the necessity to include climate science in planning on multiple scales, scientific educators must work with stakeholders to determine how best to improve climate literacy. Doing so will reduce uncertainty in the application of climate data in planning, and thus mitigate vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change. Here, we present the design and assessment of two workshop frameworks intended to improve the climate literacy of two distinct entities with different climate information needs. This work represents initial steps by the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA- Regionally Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, towards the development of a suite of process-oriented frameworks geared toward improving the climate literacy of different users with distinct informational needs. Both workshops focused on water-related climate issues: the first (Dealing with Drought: Climate Change in Colorado) was geared toward an audience with minimal exposure to climate information; the second was for US Forest Service hydrologists and managers with technical backgrounds. In both cases, the workshop format included presentations of relevant climate science, introductions to varied climate tools and products, and a needs-and-gaps assessment. Evaluation of each workshop drew upon a variety of tested social science methods, such as focus groups, decision games, surveys, and structured interviews. The efficacy of the framework developed was assessed by evaluating the relationship among the climate information presented, user perceptions about climate information, and incorporation into decision-making. In addition to climate literacy evaluations, participants were presented with a scenario at the beginning of the meeting, and were asked to report periodically on their thoughts on how to approach the scenario as new information was presented throughout the workshop. This allowed us to track the co-evolution of climate literacy, accuracy of data interpretation, and the sophistication of participants’ decision-making. In the 12-months after each workshop, we will track how the climate literacy of the participants evolves, and how their informational needs for decision-making change. The results here will frame a process for how a larger, federal climate-training program might be conducted, and how training needs can be assessed through climate literacy assessments.

Incorporating agricultural management into an earth system model for the Pacific Northwest region: Interactions between climate, hydrology, agriculture, and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chinnayakanahalli, K.; Adam, J. C.; Stockle, C.; Nelson, R.; Brady, M.; Rajagopalan, K.; Barber, M. E.; Dinesh, S.; Malek, K.; Yorgey, G.; Kruger, C.; Marsh, T.; Yoder, J.

2011-12-01

For better management and decision making in the face of climate change, earth system models must explicitly account for natural resource and agricultural management activities. Including crop system, water management, and economic models into an earth system modeling framework can help in answering questions related to the impacts of climate change on irrigation water and crop productivity, how agricultural producers can adapt to anticipated climate change, and how agricultural practices can mitigate climate change. Herein we describe the coupling of the Variability Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model, which solves the water and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle at regional scales, with a crop-growth model, CropSyst. This new model, VIC-CropSyst, is the land surface model that will be used in a new regional-scale model development project focused on the Pacific Northwest, termed BioEarth. Here we describe the VIC-CropSyst coupling process and its application over the Columbia River basin (CRB) using agricultural-specific land cover information. The Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) and U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cropland data layers were used to identify agricultural land use patterns, in which both irrigated and dry land crops were simulated. The VIC-CropSyst model was applied over the CRB for the historical period of 1976 - 2006 to establish a baseline for surface water availability, irrigation demand, and crop production. The model was then applied under future (2030s) climate change scenarios derived from statistically-downscaled Global Circulation Models output under two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). Differences between simulated future and historical irrigation demand, irrigation water availability, and crop production were used in an economics model to identify the most economically-viable future cropping pattern. The economics model was run under varying scenarios of regional growth, trade, water pricing, and water capacity providing a spectrum of possible future cropping patterns. The resulting cropping patterns were then used in VIC-CropSyst to quantify the impacts of climate change, economic, and water management scenarios on crop production, and water resources availability. This modeling framework provides opportunities to study the interactions between human activities and complex natural processes and is a valuable tool for inclusion in an earth system model with the goal of informing land use and water management.

Prehistoric Packrats Piled Up Clues to Climate Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.

2008-01-01

Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and Northern Arizona University studying climate change in the Southwestern United States are getting a helping hand?or would that be paw??from prehistoric packrats. By hoarding parts of animals and plants, including seeds and leaves, in garbage piles or ?middens,? these bushy-tailed rodents preserved crucial ecological and environmental information about the past. From these middens, scientists are able to reconstruct plant communities and natural systems from as long ago as 50,000 years. The contents of middens allow scientists to understand how ecosystems responded to rapid, large-scale climate changes of the past. The insights gained from midden research could offer clues to future changes driven by rapid climate shifts.

Applying a Comprehensive Contextual Climate Change Vulnerability Framework to New Zealand's Tourism Industry.

PubMed

Hopkins, Debbie

2015-03-01

Conceptualisations of 'vulnerability' vary amongst scholarly communities, contributing to a wide variety of applications. Research investigating vulnerability to climate change has often excluded non-climatic changes which may contribute to degrees of vulnerability perceived or experienced. This paper introduces a comprehensive contextual vulnerability framework which incorporates physical, social, economic and political factors which could amplify or reduce vulnerability. The framework is applied to New Zealand's tourism industry to explore its value in interpreting a complex, human-natural environment system with multiple competing vulnerabilities. The comprehensive contextual framework can inform government policy and industry decision making, integrating understandings of climate change within the broader context of internal and external social, physical, economic, and institutional stressors.

A Climate Information Portal for Copernicus: a central portal for European climate services?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juckes, Martin; Swart, Rob; Thysse, Peter; Som de Cerff, Wim; Groot, Annemarie; Bennett, Victoria; Costa, Luis; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Callaghan, Sarah

2015-04-01

The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing a demonstration portal for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This project is one of a suite of FP7 research activities which are administratively independent of Copernicus, focussed on creating the technical and scientific building blocks needed for the service. It is to be expected that at EGU 2015 there will be many presentations describing portals delivering new and innovative ranges of services. It would be unwise to seek to replace all this creative activity with a single portal -- instead CLIPC is designing a portal to make distributed resources more accessible through flexible discovery systems. CLIPC needs to deliver more than a directory of resources: resources need to be presented in common protocols so that users can access multiple datasets. More information about the project objectives is available at www.clipc.eu. The gulf between the climate science communities and the end user communities is a central challenge being addressed in the project. It is important to understand that there is significant diversity and multiple communication barriers within these two sets of communities as well as between them. The CLIPC services must presentation will provide a review of progress towards this ambitious goal, through a discussion of user requirements activities, an overview of the proposed architecture, work on assessing and adjusting model biasses, and a discussion of the climate impact indicators which will be provided through the portal. When looking at the usability of data for the various users, CLIPC will implement a set of services functioning as a "knowledge base" supplying information to users about the data, including definitions of terminology used, quality of datasets, versioning, and user annotations.

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

Traditional Ecological Knowledge of Stem Concepts in Informal and Place-Based Western Educational Systems: Lessons from the North Slope, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholas-Figueroa, Linda

Upon regaining the right to direct education at the local level, the North Slope Borough (NSB) of Alaska incorporated Inupiat educational philosophies into the educational system. The NSB in partnership with the University of Alaska Fairbanks established Ilisagvik College, the only tribal college in Alaska. Ilisagvik College seeks to broaden science, technology, engineering, and mathematical education on the North Slope. Incorporation of place-based and informal lessons with traditional ecological knowledge engages students in education. Ilisagvik hosted a 2-week climate change program from 2012 - 2015 for high school and middle school students that examined climate science and the effects of a warming climate on the local environment from a multitude of perspectives from scientists, Inupiat Elders, and instructor-led field trips. Pre-assessments and post-assessments using the Student Assessment of Learning Gains tool measured students' interests and conceptual understanding. Students developed and enhanced their understanding of science concepts and, at the end of the program, could articulate the impact of climatic changes on their local environment. Similarly, methods to incorporate Indigenous knowledge into research practices have been achieved, such as incorporating field trips and discussion with Elders on the importance of animal migration, whale feeding patterns, and the significance of sea-ice conditions, which are important community concerns.

A review of the global relationship among freshwater fish, autotrophic activity, and regional climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deines, Andrew M.; Bunnell, David B.; Rogers, Mark W.; Beard, T. Douglas; Taylor, William W.

2015-01-01

The relationship between autotrophic activity and freshwater fish populations is an important consideration for ecologists describing trophic structure in aquatic communities, fisheries managers tasked with increasing sustainable fisheries development, and fish farmers seeking to maximize production. Previous studies of the empirical relationships of autotrophic activity and freshwater fish yield have found positive relationships but were limited by small sample sizes, small geographic scopes, and the inability to compare patterns among many types of measurement techniques. Individual studies and reviews have also lacked consistent consideration of regional climate factors which may inform relationships between fisheries and autotrophic activity. We compiled data from over 700 freshwater systems worldwide and used meta-analysis and linear models to develop a comprehensive global synthesis between multiple metrics of autotrophic activity, fisheries, and climate indicators. Our results demonstrate that multiple metrics of fish (i.e., catch per unit effort, yield, and production) increase with autotrophic activity across a variety of fisheries. At the global scale additional variation in this positive relationship can be ascribed to regional climate differences (i.e., temperature and precipitation) across systems. Our results provide a method and proof-of-concept for assessing inland fisheries production at the global scale, where current estimates are highly uncertain, and may therefore inform the continued sustainable use of global inland fishery resources.

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Page, Christian; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2013-04-01

Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNRS-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 project IS-ENES (http://is.enes.org), which supports the European climate modeling infrastructure, in the work package 'Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community'. The aim of this work package is to enhance the use of climate model data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in a prototype portal, the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities, that can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The portal is connected to all Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and later from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of all major climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using GCM data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESG data nodes. The ESG works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESG search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESG nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Visualization: Visualize any data directly using ADAGUC dynamic Web Map Services. - Transformation: Transform your data into other formats, perform basic calculations and extractions using OCG Web Processing Services The current portal is a Prototype. It is built to explore state-of-art technologies to provide improved access to climate model data. The prototype will be evaluated and is the basis for development of an operational service. The portal and services provided will be sustained and supported during the development of these operational services (2013-2016) in the second phase of the FP7 IS-ENES project, ISENES2.

Geoinformation web-system for processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I. G.; Titov, A. G.; Shulgina, T. M.

2010-12-01

Developed working model of information-computational system aimed at scientific research in area of climate change is presented. The system will allow processing and analysis of large archives of geophysical data obtained both from observations and modeling. Accumulated experience of developing information-computational web-systems providing computational processing and visualization of large archives of geo-referenced data was used during the implementation (Gordov et al, 2007; Okladnikov et al, 2008; Titov et al, 2009). Functional capabilities of the system comprise a set of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, processing and visualization of data. At present five archives of data are available for processing: 1st and 2nd editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, and NOAA-CIRES XX Century Global Reanalysis Version I. To provide data processing functionality a computational modular kernel and class library providing data access for computational modules were developed. Currently a set of computational modules for climate change indices approved by WMO is available. Also a special module providing visualization of results and writing to Encapsulated Postscript, GeoTIFF and ESRI shape files was developed. As a technological basis for representation of cartographical information in Internet the GeoServer software conforming to OpenGIS standards is used. Integration of GIS-functionality with web-portal software to provide a basis for web-portal’s development as a part of geoinformation web-system is performed. Such geoinformation web-system is a next step in development of applied information-telecommunication systems offering to specialists from various scientific fields unique opportunities of performing reliable analysis of heterogeneous geophysical data using approved computational algorithms. It will allow a wide range of researchers to work with geophysical data without specific programming knowledge and to concentrate on solving their specific tasks. The system would be of special importance for education in climate change domain. This work is partially supported by RFBR grant #10-07-00547, SB RAS Basic Program Projects 4.31.1.5 and 4.31.2.7, SB RAS Integration Projects 4 and 9.

Mapping Extreme Heat Vulnerability and Health Outcomes to inform the District of Columbia's Climate Adaptation Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Declet-Barreto, J.; Wilhelmi, O.; Goggans, A.

2016-12-01

In this collaborative engagement, scientists are partnering with the District of Columbia (DC) to develop an extreme heat vulnerability assessment. To do so, we map socio-demographic and built environment indicators of extreme heat vulnerability in Census Tracts in DC neighborhoods. In order to provide information useful for DC public health and urban planning practitioners, we aggregate the indicators into an index of extreme heat vulnerability. We compare the index against heat-related call data from DC's 911 system to better understand the socio-spatial distribution of extreme heat-related health outcomes. Our assessment can help inform the District's Climate Adaptation Plan as well as increase public engagement in reducing vulnerability to extreme heat.

Vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous climate and socioeconomic changes: a double exposure analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sangpenchan, R.

2011-12-01

This research explores the vulnerability of Thai rice production to simultaneous exposure by climate and socioeconomic change -- so-called "double exposure." Both processes influence Thailand's rice production system, but the vulnerabilities associated with their interactions are unknown. To understand this double exposure, I adopts a mixed-method, qualitative-quantitative analytical approach consisting of three phases of analysis involving a Vulnerability Scoping Diagram, a Principal Component Analysis, and the EPIC crop model using proxy datasets collected from secondary data sources at provincial scales.The first and second phases identify key variables representing each of the three dimensions of vulnerability -- exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicating that the greatest vulnerability in the rice production system occurs in households and areas with high exposure to climate change, high sensitivity to climate and socioeconomic stress, and low adaptive capacity. In the third phase, the EPIC crop model simulates rice yields associated with future climate change projected by CSIRO and MIROC climate models. Climate change-only scenarios project the decrease in yields by 10% from the current productivity during 2016-2025 and 30% during 2045-2054. Scenarios applying both climate change and improved technology and management practices show that a 50% increase in rice production is possible, but requires strong collaboration between sectors to advance agricultural research and technology and requires strong adaptive capacity in the rice production system characterized by well-developed social capital, social networks, financial capacity, and infrastructure and household mobility at the local scale. The vulnerability assessment and climate and crop adaptation simulations used here provide useful information to decision makers developing vulnerability reduction plans in the face of concurrent climate and socioeconomic change.

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Griffith, Brad; Joyce, Linda A.; Kareiva, Peter; Keller, Brian D.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Peterson, Charles H.; Scott, J. Michael; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.

2008-01-01

Climate variables are key determinants of geographic distributions and biophysical characteristics of ecosystems, communities, and species. Climate change is therefore affecting many species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue into the future regardless of emissions mitigation, strategies for protecting climate-sensitive ecosystems through management will be increasingly important. While there will always be uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate impacts, and the effects of management, it is both possible and essential for adaptation to proceed using the best available science. This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or natural resource management goals, it is instructive to examine particular goals and processes used by different organizations to fulfill their objectives. Such an examination allows for discussion of specific adaptation options as well as potential barriers and opportunities for implementation. Using this approach, this report presents a series of chapters on the following selected management systems: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. For these chapters, the authors draw on the literature, their own expert opinion, and expert workshops composed of resource management scientists and representatives of managing agencies. The information drawn from across these chapters is then analyzed to develop the key synthetic messages presented below.

Exploring clouds, weather, climate, and modeling using bilingual content and activities from the Windows to the Universe program and the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, S. Q.; Johnson, R. M.; Randall, D.; Denning, S.; Russell, R.; Gardiner, L.; Hatheway, B.; Genyuk, J.; Bergman, J.

2008-12-01

The need for improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models has been one of the most important limitations of the reliability of climate-change simulations. Now in its third year, the National Science Foundation-funded Center for Multi-scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) at Colorado State University is addressing this problem through a revolutionary new approach to representing cloud processes on their native scales, including the cloud-scale interaction processes that are active in cloud systems. CMMAP has set ambitious education and human-resource goals to share basic information about the atmosphere, clouds, weather, climate, and modeling with diverse K-12 and public audiences through its affiliation with the Windows to the Universe (W2U) program at University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). W2U web pages are written at three levels in English and Spanish. This information targets learners at all levels, educators, and families who seek to understand and share resources and information about the nature of weather and the climate system, and career role models from related research fields. This resource can also be helpful to educators who are building bridges in the classroom between the sciences, the arts, and literacy. Visitors to the W2U's CMMAP web portal can access a beautiful new clouds image gallery; information about each cloud type and the atmospheric processes that produce them; a Clouds in Art interactive; collections of weather-themed poetry, art, and myths; links to games and puzzles for children; and extensive classroom- ready resources and activities for K-12 teachers. Biographies of CMMAP scientists and graduate students are featured. Basic science concepts important to understanding the atmosphere, such as condensation, atmosphere pressure, lapse rate, and more have been developed, as well as 'microworlds' that enable students to interact with experimental tools while building fundamental knowledge. These resources can be accessed online at no cost by the entire atmospheric science K-12 and informal science education community.

Climate change portal established

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2011-12-01

The World Bank has developed a Climate Change Knowledge Portal as a kind of “onestop shop” for climate-related information, data, and tools. The portal provides access to global, regional, and national data and reports with an aim to providing a resource for learning about climate information and increasing knowledge on climate change—related actions. For more information, see http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/.

Undergraduate Students as Climate Communicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

2012-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) are partnering with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students will have the opportunity to participate in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. An integral part of the learning process will include training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of a webcast about investigating aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Analysis of Climatic and Environmental Changes Using CLEARS Web-GIS Information-Computational System: Siberia Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titov, A. G.; Gordov, E. P.; Okladnikov, I.; Shulgina, T. M.

2011-12-01

Analysis of recent climatic and environmental changes in Siberia performed on the basis of the CLEARS (CLimate and Environment Analysis and Research System) information-computational system is presented. The system was developed using the specialized software framework for rapid development of thematic information-computational systems based on Web-GIS technologies. It comprises structured environmental datasets, computational kernel, specialized web portal implementing web mapping application logic, and graphical user interface. Functional capabilities of the system include a number of procedures for mathematical and statistical analysis, data processing and visualization. At present a number of georeferenced datasets is available for processing including two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 and ERA Interim Reanalysis, meteorological observation data for the territory of the former USSR, and others. Firstly, using functionality of the computational kernel employing approved statistical methods it was shown that the most reliable spatio-temporal characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in Siberia in the second half of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries are provided by ERA-40/ERA Interim Reanalysis and APHRODITE JMA Reanalysis, respectively. Namely those Reanalyses are statistically consistent with reliable in situ meteorological observations. Analysis of surface temperature and precipitation dynamics for the territory of Siberia performed on the base of the developed information-computational system reveals fine spatial and temporal details in heterogeneous patterns obtained for the region earlier. Dynamics of bioclimatic indices determining climate change impact on structure and functioning of regional vegetation cover was investigated as well. Analysis shows significant positive trends of growing season length accompanied by statistically significant increase of sum of growing degree days and total annual precipitation over the south of Western Siberia. In particular, we conclude that analysis of trends of growing season length, sum of growing degree-days and total precipitation during the growing season reveals a tendency to an increase of vegetation ecosystems productivity across the south of Western Siberia (55°-60°N, 59°-84°E) in the past several decades. The developed system functionality providing instruments for comparison of modeling and observational data and for reliable climatological analysis allowed us to obtain new results characterizing regional manifestations of global change. It should be added that each analysis performed using the system leads also to generation of the archive of spatio-temporal data fields ready for subsequent usage by other specialists. In particular, the archive of bioclimatic indices obtained will allow performing further detailed studies of interrelations between local climate and vegetation cover changes, including changes of carbon uptake related to variations of types and amount of vegetation and spatial shift of vegetation zones. This work is partially supported by RFBR grants #10-07-00547 and #11-05-01190-a, SB RAS Basic Program Projects 4.31.1.5 and 4.31.2.7.

[Spatial distribution characteristics of China cotton fiber quality and climatic factors based on GIS].

PubMed

Xiong, Zong-Wei; Gu, Sheng-Hao; Mao, Li-Li; Wang, Xue-Jiao; Zhang, Li-Zhen; Zhou, Zhi-Guo

2012-12-01

By using geographical information system (GIS), the cotton fiber quality data from 2005 to 2011 and the daily meteorological data from 1981 to 2010 at 82 sites (counties and cities) in China major cotton production regions were collected and treated with spatial interpolation. The spatial information system of cotton fiber quality in China major cotton production regions was established based on GIS, and the spatial distribution characteristics of the cotton fiber quality and their relationships with the local climatic factors were analyzed. In the northwest region (especially Xinjiang) of China, due to the abundant sunlight, low precipitation, and low relative humidity, the cotton fiber length, micronaire, and grade ranked the first. In the Yangtze River region and Yellow River region, the specific strength of cotton fiber was higher, and in the Yangtze River region, the cotton fiber length and specific strength were higher, while the micronaire and grade were lower than those in the Yellow River region. The cotton fiber quality was closely related to the climate factors such as temperature, sunlight, rainfall, and humidity.

Crop diversification and livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe: adaptive management for environmental change.

PubMed

Makate, Clifton; Wang, Rongchang; Makate, Marshall; Mango, Nelson

2016-01-01

This paper demonstrates how crop diversification impacts on two outcomes of climate smart agriculture; increased productivity (legume and cereal crop productivity) and enhanced resilience (household income, food security, and nutrition) in rural Zimbabwe. Using data from over 500 smallholder farmers, we jointly estimate crop diversification and each of the outcome variables within a conditional (recursive) mixed process framework that corrects for selectivity bias arising due to the voluntary nature of crop diversification. We find that crop diversification depends on the land size, farming experience, asset wealth, location, access to agricultural extension services, information on output prices, low transportation costs and general information access. Our results also indicate that an increase in the rate of adoption improves crop productivity, income, food security and nutrition at household level. Overall, our results are indicative of the importance of crop diversification as a viable climate smart agriculture practice that significantly enhances crop productivity and consequently resilience in rural smallholder farming systems. We, therefore, recommend wider adoption of diversified cropping systems notably those currently less diversified for greater adaptation to the ever-changing climate.

ClimateSpark: An In-memory Distributed Computing Framework for Big Climate Data Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, F.; Yang, C. P.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Li, Z.

2016-12-01

Massive array-based climate data is being generated from global surveillance systems and model simulations. They are widely used to analyze the environment problems, such as climate changes, natural hazards, and public health. However, knowing the underlying information from these big climate datasets is challenging due to both data- and computing- intensive issues in data processing and analyzing. To tackle the challenges, this paper proposes ClimateSpark, an in-memory distributed computing framework to support big climate data processing. In ClimateSpark, the spatiotemporal index is developed to enable Apache Spark to treat the array-based climate data (e.g. netCDF4, HDF4) as native formats, which are stored in Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS) without any preprocessing. Based on the index, the spatiotemporal query services are provided to retrieve dataset according to a defined geospatial and temporal bounding box. The data subsets will be read out, and a data partition strategy will be applied to equally split the queried data to each computing node, and store them in memory as climateRDDs for processing. By leveraging Spark SQL and User Defined Function (UDFs), the climate data analysis operations can be conducted by the intuitive SQL language. ClimateSpark is evaluated by two use cases using the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate reanalysis dataset. One use case is to conduct the spatiotemporal query and visualize the subset results in animation; the other one is to compare different climate model outputs using Taylor-diagram service. Experimental results show that ClimateSpark can significantly accelerate data query and processing, and enable the complex analysis services served in the SQL-style fashion.

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

A fresh look at the Last Glacial Maximum using Paleoclimate Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, S. B.; Tierney, J. E.; Hakim, G. J.; Tardif, R.

2017-12-01

Quantifying climate conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum ( 21ka) can help us to understand climate responses to forcing and climate states that are poorly represented in the instrumental record. Paleoclimate proxies may be used to estimate these climate conditions, but proxies are sparsely distributed and possess uncertainties from environmental and biogeochemical processes. Alternatively, climate model simulations provide a full-field view, but may predict unrealistic climate states or states not faithful to proxy records. Here, we use data assimilation - combining climate proxy records with a theoretical understanding from climate models - to produce field reconstructions of the LGM that leverage the information from both data and models. To date, data assimilation has mainly been used to produce reconstructions of climate fields through the last millennium. We expand this approach in order to produce a climate fields for the Last Glacial Maximum using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation. Ensemble samples were formed from output from multiple models including CCSM3, CESM2.1, and HadCM3. These model simulations are combined with marine sediment proxies for upper ocean temperature (TEX86, UK'37, Mg/Ca and δ18O of foraminifera), utilizing forward models based on a newly developed suite of Bayesian proxy system models. We also incorporate age model and radiocarbon reservoir uncertainty into our reconstructions using Bayesian age modeling software. The resulting fields show familiar patterns based on comparison with previous proxy-based reconstructions, but additionally reveal novel patterns of large-scale shifts in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, as the surface temperature data inform upon atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Agro-climatology Analysis Tools and Knowledge Base Products for Food Security Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Rowland, J.; Anthony, M.; Palka, S.; Martinez, J.; Hussain, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) supports the use of Earth observation data for food security monitoring through its role as an implementing partner of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). The USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center has developed tools designed to aid food security analysts in developing assumptions of agro-climatological outcomes. There are four primary steps to developing agro-climatology assumptions; including: 1) understanding the climatology, 2) evaluating current climate modes, 3) interpretation of forecast information, and 4) incorporation of monitoring data. Analysts routinely forecast outcomes well in advance of the growing season, which relies on knowledge of climatology. A few months prior to the growing season, analysts can assess large-scale climate modes that might influence seasonal outcomes. Within two months of the growing season, analysts can evaluate seasonal forecast information as indicators. Once the growing season begins, monitoring data, based on remote sensing and field information, can characterize the start of season and remain integral monitoring tools throughout the duration of the season. Each subsequent step in the process can lead to modifications of the original climatology assumption. To support such analyses, we have created an agro-climatology analysis tool that characterizes each step in the assumption building process. Satellite-based rainfall and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)-based products support both the climatology and monitoring steps, sea-surface temperature data and knowledge of the global climate system inform the climate modes, and precipitation forecasts at multiple scales support the interpretation of forecast information. Organizing these data for a user-specified area provides a valuable tool for food security analysts to better formulate agro-climatology assumptions that feed into food security assessments. We have also developed a knowledge base for over 80 countries that provide rainfall and NDVI-based products, including annual and seasonal summaries, historical anomalies, coefficient of variation, and number of years below 70% of annual or seasonal averages. These products provide a quick look for analysts to assess the agro-climatology of a country.

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

PubMed

Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

2012-08-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing Mediterranean Land Surfaces as Component of the Regional Climate System by Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bolle, H.-J.; Koslowsky, D.; Menenti, M.; Nerry, F.; Otterman, Joseph; Starr, D.

1998-01-01

Extensive areas in the Mediterranean region are subject to land degradation and desertification. The high variability of the coupling between the surface and the atmosphere affects the regional climate. Relevant surface characteristics, such as spectral reflectance, surface emissivity in the thermal-infrared region, and vegetation indices, serve as "primary" level indicators for the state of the surface. Their spatial, seasonal and interannual variability can be monitored from satellites. Using relationships between these primary data and combining them with prior information about the land surfaces (such as topography, dominant soil type, land use, collateral ground measurements and models), a second layer of information is built up which specifies the land surfaces as a component of the regional climate system. To this category of parameters which are directly involved in the exchange of energy, momentum and mass between the surface and the atmosphere, belong broadband albedo, thermodynamic surface temperature, vegetation types, vegetation cover density, soil top moisture, and soil heat flux. Information about these parameters finally leads to the computation of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The methodology was tested with pilot data sets. Full resolution, properly calibrated and normalized NOAA-AVHRR multi-annual primary data sets are presently compiled for the whole Mediterranean area, to study interannual variability and longer term trends.

Urban Climate Resilience - Connecting climate models with decision support cyberinfrastructure using open standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bermudez, L. E.; Percivall, G.; Idol, T. A.

2015-12-01

Experts in climate modeling, remote sensing of the Earth, and cyber infrastructure must work together in order to make climate predictions available to decision makers. Such experts and decision makers worked together in the Open Geospatial Consortium's (OGC) Testbed 11 to address a scenario of population displacement by coastal inundation due to the predicted sea level rise. In a Policy Fact Sheet "Harnessing Climate Data to Boost Ecosystem & Water Resilience", issued by White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) in December 2014, OGC committed to increase access to climate change information using open standards. In July 2015, the OGC Testbed 11 Urban Climate Resilience activity delivered on that commitment with open standards based support for climate-change preparedness. Using open standards such as the OGC Web Coverage Service and Web Processing Service and the NetCDF and GMLJP2 encoding standards, Testbed 11 deployed an interoperable high-resolution flood model to bring climate model outputs together with global change assessment models and other remote sensing data for decision support. Methods to confirm model predictions and to allow "what-if-scenarios" included in-situ sensor webs and crowdsourcing. A scenario was in two locations: San Francisco Bay Area and Mozambique. The scenarios demonstrated interoperation and capabilities of open geospatial specifications in supporting data services and processing services. The resultant High Resolution Flood Information System addressed access and control of simulation models and high-resolution data in an open, worldwide, collaborative Web environment. The scenarios examined the feasibility and capability of existing OGC geospatial Web service specifications in supporting the on-demand, dynamic serving of flood information from models with forecasting capacity. Results of this testbed included identification of standards and best practices that help researchers and cities deal with climate-related issues. Results of the testbeds will now be deployed in pilot applications. The testbed also identified areas of additional development needed to help identify scientific investments and cyberinfrastructure approaches needed to improve the application of climate science research results to urban climate resilence.

Climate Change Education on Public Health Consequences and Impacts to the Human System - An Interdisciplinary Approach to Promoting Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matiella Novak, M.; Paxton, L. J.

2012-12-01

In this talk we will discuss our approach to translating an abstract, difficult to internalize idea ("climate change") into knowledge that speaks to people directly in terms of their own lives. Recent research suggests that communicating climate change in the context of public health impacts, and even national security risks, is a more effective method of reaching communities that are currently disengaged or nonresponsive to climate change science than the approaches currently being used. Understanding that these new perspectives might reach a broader audience, the Global Assimilation of Information for Action (GAIA) project has proposed implementing a suite of education activities that focus on the public health consequences that will arise and/or becoming exacerbated by climate change. Reaching the disparate communities that must be brought together to create a workable approach is challenging. GAIA has developed a novel framework for sharing information and developing communities of interest that cross boundaries in what is otherwise a highly disciplinary approach to climate change studies. Members of the GAIA community include climate change, environmental and public health experts, as well as relevant stakeholders, policy makers and decision makers. By leveraging the existing expertise within the GAIA community, an opportunity exists to present climate change education (CCE) in a way that emphasizes how climate change will affect public health, and utilizes an approach that has been shown to engage a broader and more diverse audience. Focusing CCE on public health effects is a new and potentially transformative method since it makes the results more tangible and less "random". When CCE is focused on what will happen to the Earth's climate and associated meteorological hazards one might be tempted to view this as something that can be coped with thus enabling the individualist entrepreneur point of view. Weather disasters always seem to happen to someone else - someone not like you. On the other hand, public health impacts are felt by millions and lead to very high costs and those impacts are something with which most people have direct experiences. We will discuss, for example, how climate change can be framed as a cost/benefit problem by looking at the long term costs of increase in disease and illness such as the startling trends in childhood asthma. Changes in water availability, and water and air quality, will result from a warming climate, with measureable consequences for public health: disease spread, food and water security, respiratory health, etc. By integrating this information with education efforts, society, educators and decision makers will have a better understanding of how climate change affects the human system, and what decisions can be made at the individual and community levels to mitigate and adapt to climate change. We will show how this can be achieved.

Fight Swack, Adapt to Climate Change or How to Use Humor to Engage the Public in Climate Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, R.; Elinich, K.; Johnson, R.; Fink, J.; Crawford, J.

2014-12-01

We are carefully considering how a humor-based campaign can help us communicate important climate change messages. Using pilot campaign strategies, we have engaged local residents in focus groups and interviews to understand how effective the approach can be. Growing educational research suggests learning about climate change can lead to feelings of depression, fear and inaction. Climate change seems too big of a task to take on. But with sweaty back (or "swack" as it's known in some circles), there's a public enemy that can be defeated. As only one piece of an innovative model for informal climate change education, the Climate and Urban Systems Partnership repositions the war on climate change by declaring a war on swack instead. This way, we can talk about climate change in a way it has never been talked about before that will certainly get people's attention. It also answers the common question of, "Yeah, but how does it affect me?" We're educating about responses to climate change because heat waves, floods, and excessive back sweat all kinda suck a lot.

Can decadal climate predictions be improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years inadvance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-termweather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundarycondition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. The ocean memorydue to its heat capacity holds big potential skill on the decadal scale. In recent years, more precise initializationtechniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions.Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions results in an ensemble. Insteadof using and evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble or its ensemble average, improves a predictionsystem. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from oneforecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improvedby a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. Wefound that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standarddecadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions showan increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with largerensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from oceanensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean. This study is part of MiKlip (fona-miklip.de) - a major project on decadal climate prediction in Germany.We focus on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model using the low-resolution version (MPI-ESM-LR) andMiKlip's basic initialization strategy as in 2017 published decadal climate forecast: http://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast-2017-2026/decadal-forecast-for-2017-2026/ More informations about this study in JAMES:DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000787

Global Climate Change and Ocean Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzer, W.; Anderson, J.

2011-12-01

The New England Aquarium, collaborating with other aquariums across the country, is leading a national effort to enable aquariums and related informal science education institutions to effectively communicate the impacts of climate change and ocean acidification on marine animals, habitats and ecosystems. Our goal is to build on visitors' emotional connection with ocean animals, connect to their deeply held values, help them understand causes and effects of climate change and motivate them to embrace effective solutions. Our objectives are to: (1) Build a national coalition of aquariums and related informal education institutions collaborating on climate change education; (2) Develop an interpretive framework for climate change and the ocean that is scientifically sound, research-based, field tested and evaluated; and (3) Build capacity of aquariums to interpret climate change via training for interpreters, interactive exhibits and activities and communities of practice for ongoing support. Centers of informal learning have the potential to bring important environmental issues to the public by presenting the facts, explaining the science, connecting with existing values and interests, and motivating concern and action. Centers that work with live animals (including aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks, national marine sanctuaries, etc.) are unique in that they attract large numbers of people of all ages (over 140 million in the US), have strong connections to the natural, and engage many visitors who may not come with a primary interest in science. Recent research indicates that that the public expects and trusts aquariums, zoos, and museums to communicate solutions to environmental and ocean issues, and to advance ocean conservation, and that climate change is the environmental issue of most concern to the public; Ironically, however, most people do not associate climate change with ocean health, or understand the critical role that the ocean plays in the Earth's climate system. The problem is not simply that the public lacks information. In fact, the problem is often that there is too much information available with much of it complicated and even contradictory. The news media, both print and electronic, tend to exacerbate this by aiming for "balance" even when there is an overwhelming scientific or policy consensus. An additional problem is "reinforcement bias," which tends to lead people to focus on information that supports what they already believe or think they know. Instead, we need an approach that facilitates "meaning-making." A "framing" approach to communication (Frameworks Institute, 2010) supports meaning-making by appealing to strongly held values, providing metaphoric language and models, and illustrating specific applications to real world problems. This approach translates complex science in a way that allows people to examine evidence, make well-informed decisions, and embrace science-based solutions. However, interpreters need specialized training, resources, up-to-date information, and ongoing support to help understand a complex topic such as climate change, its connections to the ocean, and how to relate it to the live animals, habitats and exhibits they interpret.

Ecosystem informaties for natural history data - Developing an integrated framework for biological and geographic data

EPA Science Inventory

Threats to the ecological integrity of marine and estuarine systems operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at watershed/estuarine linkages to invasive species and climate change at regional/global scales. Decision support tools and information systems needed t...

Climatic Data Integration and Analysis - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seamon, E.; Gessler, P. E.; Flathers, E.; Sheneman, L.; Gollberg, G.

2013-12-01

The Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH PNA) is a five-year USDA/NIFA-funded coordinated agriculture project to examine the sustainability of cereal crop production systems in the Pacific Northwest, in relationship to ongoing climate change. As part of this effort, an extensive data management system has been developed to enable researchers, students, and the public, to upload, manage, and analyze various data. The REACCH PNA data management team has developed three core systems to encompass cyberinfrastructure and data management needs: 1) the reacchpna.org portal (https://www.reacchpna.org) is the entry point for all public and secure information, with secure access by REACCH PNA members for data analysis, uploading, and informational review; 2) the REACCH PNA Data Repository is a replicated, redundant database server environment that allows for file and database storage and access to all core data; and 3) the REACCH PNA Libraries which are functional groupings of data for REACCH PNA members and the public, based on their access level. These libraries are accessible thru our https://www.reacchpna.org portal. The developed system is structured in a virtual server environment (data, applications, web) that includes a geospatial database/geospatial web server for web mapping services (ArcGIS Server), use of ESRI's Geoportal Server for data discovery and metadata management (under the ISO 19115-2 standard), Thematic Realtime Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) for data cataloging, and Interactive Python notebook server (IPython) technology for data analysis. REACCH systems are housed and maintained by the Northwest Knowledge Network project (www.northwestknowledge.net), which provides data management services to support research. Initial project data harvesting and meta-tagging efforts have resulted in the interrogation and loading of over 10 terabytes of climate model output, regional entomological data, agricultural and atmospheric information, as well as imagery, publications, videos, and other soft content. In addition, the outlined data management approach has focused on the integration and interconnection of hard data (raw data output) with associated publications, presentations, or other narrative documentation - through metadata lineage associations. This harvest-and-consume data management methodology could additionally be applied to other research team environments that involve large and divergent data.

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system for water resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, L.; Wood, E. F.

2006-12-01

A seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system, developed for the Ohio River basin, has been improved and expanded to several other regions including the Eastern U.S., Africa and East Asia. The prediction system adopts the traditional Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach, utilizing the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) hydrological model as the central tool for producing ensemble prediction of soil moisture, snow and streamflow with lead times up to 6-month. VIC is forced by observed meteorology to estimate the hydrological initial condition prior to the forecast, but during the forecast period the atmospheric forcing comes from statistically downscaled, seasonal forecast from dynamic climate models. The seasonal hydrologic ensemble prediction system is currently producing realtime seasonal hydrologic forecast for these regions on a monthly basis. Using hindcasts from a 19-year period (1981-1999), during which seasonal hindcasts from NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and European Union DEMETER project are available, we evaluate the performance of the forecast system over our forecast regions. The evaluation shows that the prediction system using the current forecast approach is able to produce reliable and accurate precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow predictions. The overall skill is much higher then the traditional ESP. In particular, forecasts based on multiple climate model forecast are more skillful than single model-based forecast. This emphasizes the significant need for producing seasonal climate forecast with multiple climate models for hydrologic applications. Forecast from this system is expected to provide very valuable information about future hydrologic states and associated risks for end users, including water resource management and financial sectors.

Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2013-12-01

Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013) compared the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change using infrared spectra from weather satellites. New results extend this to observational detection of cloud feedback which is the largest uncertainty in determining climate sensitivity and therefore the uncertainty in economic impacts. New results also include the use of multiple societal decision triggers. While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to a complete high accuracy climate observing system, as societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of advanced climate observations in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars in Net Present Value. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

Improving seasonal forecast through the state of large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samale, Chiara; Zimmerman, Brian; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Block, Paul

2017-04-01

Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. In fact, forecasts are usually skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), but predictability tends to decrease on longer lead times. The forecast lead time might be extended by using climate teleconnection, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Despite the ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations such as Western USA and Australia, there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other river basins, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we propose the use of the Nino Index Phase Analysis for capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e., ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Dipole Mode Index). This climate state information is used for distinguishing the different phases of the climate signals and for identifying relevant teleconnections between the observations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that mostly influence the local hydrologic conditions. The framework is applied to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Preliminary results show high correlations between SST and three to six months ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. This forecast represents a valuable information to partially anticipate the summer water availability, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como operations.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report, Technical Report DOE/SC-0186

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D.; Kappel-Aleks, Gretchen

2016-11-01

As Earth system models become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistry–climate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing uncertainties associated with projections of climate change during the remainder of the 21st century.

A potential global soils data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoner, E. R.; Joyce, A. T.; Hogg, H. C.

1984-01-01

A general procedure is outlined for refining the existing world soil maps from the existing 1:1 million scale to 1:250,000 through the interpretation of Landsat MSS and TM images, and the use of a Geographic Information System to relate the soils maps to available information on climate, topography, geology, and vegetation.

Understanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Chapman, Ralph; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Capon, Anthony

2016-09-01

Understanding cities comprehensively as systems is a costly challenge and is typically not feasible for policy makers. Nevertheless, focusing on some key systemic characteristics of cities can give useful insights for policy to advance health and well-being outcomes. Moreover, if we take a coevolutionary systems view of cities, some conventional assumptions about the nature of urban development (e.g. the growth in private vehicle use with income) may not stand up. We illustrate this by examining the coevolution of urban transport and land use systems, and institutional change, giving examples of policy implications. At a high level, our concern derives from the need to better understand the dynamics of urban change, and its implications for health and well-being. At a practical level, we see opportunities to use stylised findings about urban systems to underpin policy experiments. While it is now not uncommon to view cities as systems, policy makers appear to have made little use so far of a systems approach to inform choice of policies with consequences for health and well-being. System insights can be applied to intelligently anticipate change - for example, as cities are subjected to increasing natural system reactions to climate change, they must find ways to mitigate and adapt to it. Secondly, systems insights around policy cobenefits are vital for better informing horizontal policy integration. Lastly, an implication of system complexity is that rather than seeking detailed, 'full' knowledge about urban issues and policies, cities would be well advised to engage in policy experimentation to address increasingly urgent health and climate change issues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Palaeoclimate Signals in Climate in groundwater: the past is the key to the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ploeg, M. J.; Cendon, D. I.; Haldorsen, S.; Chen, J.; Gurdak, J. J.; Tujchneider, O.; Vaikmae, R.; Purtschert, R.; Chkir Ben Jemâa, N.

2013-12-01

The impact of climate variability and groundwater extraction on the resilience of groundwater systems is still not fully understood (Green et al. 2011). Groundwater stores environmental and climatic information acquired during the recharge process, which integrates different signals, like recharge temperature, origin of precipitation, and dissolved constituents. This information can be used to estimate palaeo recharge temperatures, palaeo atmospheric dynamics and residence time of groundwater within the aquifer (Stute et al. 1995, Clark and Fritz 1997, Collon et al. 2000, Edmunds et al. 2003, Cartwright et al. 2007, Kreuzer et al. 2009, Currell et al. 2010, Raidla et al. 2012, Salem et al. 2012). The climatic signals incorporated by groundwater during recharge have the potential to provide a regionally integrated proxy of climatic variations at the time of recharge. Groundwater palaeoclimate information is affected by diffusion-dispersion processes (Davison and Airey, 1982) and/or water-rock interaction (Clark and Fritz, 1997), making palaeoclimate information deduced from groundwater inherently a low resolution record. While the signal resolution can be limited, recharge follows major climatic events, and more importantly, shows how those aquifers and their associated recharge varies under climatic forcing. While the characterization of groundwater resources, surface-groundwater interactions and their link to the global water cycle are an important focus, little attention has been given to groundwater as a potential record of past climate variations. A groundwater system's history is vital to forecast its vulnerability under future and potentially adverse climatic changes. By processing groundwater information from vast regions and different continents, recharge and palaeoclimate can be correlated at a global scale. To address the identified lack of palaeoclimatic data available from groundwater studies, a global collaboration has been set-up in 2011 called Groundwater@Global Palaeoclimate Signals (www.gw-gps.com), and has already more than 70 participants from 5 continents. Since 2012 G@GPS receives seed funding to support meetings by IGCP, INQUA and UNESCO-GRAPHIC. This collaboration targets groundwater basins on five continents --Africa, America, Asia, Australia, Europe -- containing vast groundwater resources with an estimated dependence of tens of millions of people. We will present G@GPS, show examples from groundwater basins, and discuss possibilities to integrate groundwater information from these basins. References Cartwright, I. et al. 2007. J. Hydrol. 332: 69-92. Clark, I. and P. Fritz. 1997. Lewis Publishers. Collon, P. et al. 2000. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 182: 103-113. Currell, M. J. et al. 2010. J. Hydrol. 385: 216-229. Davison, M. R. and P. L. Airey. 1982. J. Hydrol. 58: 131-147. Edmunds, W. M. et al. 2003. Applied Geochemistry 18: 805-822. Green, T.R. et al. 2011. J. Hydrol 405: 532-560. Kreuzer, A. M. et al. 2009. Chemical Geology 259: 168-180. Raidla, V. et al. 2012, Applied Geochemistry, v. 27(10), p. 2042-2052. Salem, S.B.H. et al. 2012, Environmental Earth Sciences, v., 66, p. 1099-1110. Stute M., et al. 1995. Science 269, 379-383.

The IS-ENES climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten; Page, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Santiago Cofiño Gonzalez, Antonio

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact (climate4impact.eu) is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 17 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the IS-ENES European project and is currently operated and further developed in the IS ENES2 project. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. Climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task is to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal informs users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. Climate4impact currently has two main objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals (like the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project). This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national. In the presentation the following subjects will be detailed: - Lessons learned developing climate4impact.eu - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA).

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

`Our Changing Climate' - A new interactive game about weather, climate, the Earth's energy budget and the impacts caused by climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colon-Robles, M.; Lorentz, K.; Ruhlman, K.; Gilman, I.; Chambers, L. H.

2010-12-01

‘Our Changing Climate’ is a brand new game developed at NASA’s Langley Research Center by the Informal Education group and the Science Directorate to educate the public on Earth’s climate system how the Sun, ocean, atmosphere, clouds, ice, land, and life interact with each other, and how these interactions are changing due to anthropogenic effects. The game was designed for students in middle school (5th and 8th grade) between the ages of 10-14 as part of the NASA's Summer of Innovation campaign for excellence in science, technology, engineering and mathematics, or STEM, education. The game, ‘Our Changing Climate’, is composed of a series of interactive boards, featuring the following topics: (1) the difference between weather and climate - “Weather vs Climate”, (2) the interactions of clouds and greenhouse gases on short and long wave radiation - “Greenhouse Gases and Clouds”, and (3) the definition of albedo and the importance of bright surfaces over the Arctic - “Arctic Temperature”. Each interactive board presents a climate system and steps the student or spectator through the climate interaction using “clues” and hands-on items that they need to put correctly on the board to understand the concept. Once the student or spectator finishes this part, they then have a better grasp of the concept and are able to understand how these interactions are changing due to the increase in average global temperature. This knowledge is then tested or “driven home” with interactive questions that show how these interactions in our climate are changing today. The concept is then reinforced with an example of a recent event presented in the media. The game has been piloted in outreach and informal settings, as well as for professional development of educators. The game, interactions and engagement of each of the audiences mentioned will be presented.

SysSon: A Sonification Platform for Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visda, Goudarzi; Hanns Holger, Rutz; Katharina, Vogt

2014-05-01

Climate data provide a challenging working basis for sonification. Both model data and measured data are assessed in collaboration with the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change. The multi dimensionality and multi variety of climate data has a great potential for auditory displays. Furthermore, there is consensus on global climate change and the necessity of intensified climate research today in the scientific community and general public. Sonification provides a new means to communicate scientific results and inform a wider audience. SysSon is a user centered auditory platform for climate scientists to analyze data. It gives scientists broader insights by extracting hidden patterns and features from data that is not possible using a single modal visual interface. A variety of soundscapes to chose from lessens the fatigue that comes with repeated and sustained listening to long streams of data. Initial needs assessments and user tests made the work procedures and the terminology of climate scientists clear and informed the architecture of our system. Furthermore, experiments evaluated the sound design which led to a more advanced soundscape and improvement of the auditory display. We present a novel interactive sonification tool which combines a workspace for the scientists with a development environment for sonification models. The tool runs on different operating systems and is released as open source. In the standalone desktop application, multiple data sources can be imported, navigated and manipulated either via text or a graphical interface, including traditional plotting facilities. Sound models are built from unit generator graphs which are enhanced with matrix manipulation functions. They allow us to systematically experiment with elements known from the visual domain, such as range selections, scaling, thresholding, markers and labels. The models are organized in an extensible library, from which the user can choose and parametrize. Importance is given to the persistence of all configurations, in order to faithfully reproduce sonification instances. Finally, the platform is prepared to allow the composition of interactive sound installations, transitioning between the scientific lab and the gallery space.

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

2015-12-01

The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

Knowledge Discovery from Climate Data using Graph-Based Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhaeuser, K.

2012-04-01

Climate and Earth sciences have recently experienced a rapid transformation from a historically data-poor to a data-rich environment, thus bringing them into the realm of the Fourth Paradigm of scientific discovery - a term coined by the late Jim Gray (Hey et al. 2009), the other three being theory, experimentation and computer simulation. In particular, climate-related observations from remote sensors on satellites and weather radars, in situ sensors and sensor networks, as well as outputs of climate or Earth system models from large-scale simulations, provide terabytes of spatio-temporal data. These massive and information-rich datasets offer a significant opportunity for advancing climate science and our understanding of the global climate system, yet current analysis techniques are not able to fully realize their potential benefits. We describe a class of computational approaches, specifically from the data mining and machine learning domains, which may be novel to the climate science domain and can assist in the analysis process. Computer scientists have developed spatial and spatio-temporal analysis techniques for a number of years now, and many of them may be applicable and/or adaptable to problems in climate science. We describe a large-scale, NSF-funded project aimed at addressing climate science question using computational analysis methods; team members include computer scientists, statisticians, and climate scientists from various backgrounds. One of the major thrusts is in the development of graph-based methods, and several illustrative examples of recent work in this area will be presented.

Climate Change Adaptation in the Western U.S.: the Case for Dynamic Rule Curves in Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Hamlet, A. F.; Burges, S. J.

2008-12-01

Climate change in the Western U.S. will bring systematic hydrologic changes affecting many water resources systems. Successful adaptation to these changes, which will be ongoing through the 21st century, will require the 'rebalancing' of competing system objectives such as water supply, flood control, hydropower production, and environmental services in response to hydrologic (and other) changes. Although fixed operating policies for the operation of reservoirs has been a traditional approach to water management in the 20th century, the rapid pace of projected climate shifts (~0.5 F per decade), and the prohibitive costs of recursive policy intervention to mitigate impacts, suggest that more sophisticated approaches will be needed to cope with climate change on a long term basis. The use of 'dynamic rule curves' is an approach that maintains some of the key characteristics of current water management practice (reservoir rule curves) while avoiding many of the fundamental drawbacks of traditional water resources management strategies in a non-stationary climate. In this approach, water resources systems are optimized for each operational period using ensemble streamflow and/or water demand forecasts. The ensemble of optimized reservoir storage traces are then analyzed to produce a set of unique reservoir rule curves for each operational period reflecting the current state of the system. The potential advantage of this approach is that hydrologic changes associated with climate change (such as systematically warmer temperatures) can be captured explicitly in operational hydrologic forecasts, which would in turn inform the optimized reservoir management solutions, creating water resources systems that are largely 'self tending' as the climate system evolves. Furthermore, as hydrologic forecasting systems improve (e.g. in response to improved ENSO forecasting or other scientific advances), so does the performance of reservoir operations. An example of the approach is given for flood control in the Columbia River basin.

Climate Analytics as a Service. Chapter 11

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.

2016-01-01

Exascale computing, big data, and cloud computing are driving the evolution of large-scale information systems toward a model of data-proximal analysis. In response, we are developing a concept of climate analytics as a service (CAaaS) that represents a convergence of data analytics and archive management. With this approach, high-performance compute-storage implemented as an analytic system is part of a dynamic archive comprising both static and computationally realized objects. It is a system whose capabilities are framed as behaviors over a static data collection, but where queries cause results to be created, not found and retrieved. Those results can be the product of a complex analysis, but, importantly, they also can be tailored responses to the simplest of requests. NASA's MERRA Analytic Service and associated Climate Data Services API provide a real-world example of climate analytics delivered as a service in this way. Our experiences reveal several advantages to this approach, not the least of which is orders-of-magnitude time reduction in the data assembly task common to many scientific workflows.

Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

PubMed Central

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2015-01-01

China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

Building Capacity: The National Network for Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitzer, W.

2014-12-01

In the US, more than 1,500 informal science venues (science centers, museums, aquariums, zoos, nature centers, national parks) are visited annually by 61% of the population. Research shows that these visitors are receptive to learning about climate change, and expect these institutions to provide reliable information about environmental issues and solutions. These informal science venues play a critical role in shaping public understanding. Since 2007, the New England Aquarium has led a national effort to increase the capacity of informal science venues to effectively communicate about climate change. We are now leading the NSF-funded National Network for Ocean and Climate Change Interpretation (NNOCCI), partnering with the Association of Zoos and Aquariums, FrameWorks Institute, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Monterey Bay Aquarium, and National Aquarium, with evaluation conducted by the New Knowledge Organization, Pennsylvania State University, and Ohio State University. After two years of project implementation, key findings include: 1. Importance of adaptive management - We continue to make ongoing changes in training format, content, and roles of facilitators and participants. 2. Impacts on interpreters - We have multiple lines of evidence for changes in knowledge, skills, attitudes, and behaviors. 3. Social radiation - Trained interpreters have a significant influence on their friends, family and colleagues. 4. Visitor impacts - "Exposure to "strategically framed" interpretation does change visitors' perceptions about climate change. 5. Community of practice - We are seeing evidence of growing participation, leadership, and sustainability. 6. Diffusion of innovation - Peer networks are facilitating dissemination throughout the informal science education community. Over the next five years, NNOCCI will achieve a systemic national impact across the ISE community, embed its work within multiple ongoing regional and national climate change education networks, and leave an enduring legacy of impact. We believe that the NNOCCI project can serve as a model for how ISEIs can address other complex environmental, scientific, and policy topics as well.

Climate Velocity Can Inform Conservation in a Warming World.

PubMed

Brito-Morales, Isaac; García Molinos, Jorge; Schoeman, David S; Burrows, Michael T; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Brown, Christopher J; Ferrier, Simon; Harwood, Tom D; Klein, Carissa J; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Watson, James E M; Wenger, Amelia S; Richardson, Anthony J

2018-06-01

Climate change is shifting the ranges of species. Simple predictive metrics of range shifts such as climate velocity, that do not require extensive knowledge or data on individual species, could help to guide conservation. We review research on climate velocity, describing the theory underpinning the concept and its assumptions. We highlight how climate velocity has already been applied in conservation-related research, including climate residence time, climate refugia, endemism, historic and projected range shifts, exposure to climate change, and climate connectivity. Finally, we discuss ways to enhance the use of climate velocity in conservation through tailoring it to be more biologically meaningful, informing design of protected areas, conserving ocean biodiversity in 3D, and informing conservation actions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving Climate Projections Using "Intelligent" Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, Noel C.; Taylor, Patrick C.

2015-01-01

Recent changes in the climate system have led to growing concern, especially in communities which are highly vulnerable to resource shortages and weather extremes. There is an urgent need for better climate information to develop solutions and strategies for adapting to a changing climate. Climate models provide excellent tools for studying the current state of climate and making future projections. However, these models are subject to biases created by structural uncertainties. Performance metrics-or the systematic determination of model biases-succinctly quantify aspects of climate model behavior. Efforts to standardize climate model experiments and collect simulation data-such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)-provide the means to directly compare and assess model performance. Performance metrics have been used to show that some models reproduce present-day climate better than others. Simulation data from multiple models are often used to add value to projections by creating a consensus projection from the model ensemble, in which each model is given an equal weight. It has been shown that the ensemble mean generally outperforms any single model. It is possible to use unequal weights to produce ensemble means, in which models are weighted based on performance (called "intelligent" ensembles). Can performance metrics be used to improve climate projections? Previous work introduced a framework for comparing the utility of model performance metrics, showing that the best metrics are related to the variance of top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave radiation. These metrics improve present-day climate simulations of Earth's energy budget using the "intelligent" ensemble method. The current project identifies several approaches for testing whether performance metrics can be applied to future simulations to create "intelligent" ensemble-mean climate projections. It is shown that certain performance metrics test key climate processes in the models, and that these metrics can be used to evaluate model quality in both current and future climate states. This information will be used to produce new consensus projections and provide communities with improved climate projections for urgent decision-making.

Applications of geographic information systems (GIS) for livability.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

Livability is the idea that transportation, land use, housing, energy, and environmental considerations can be integrated to protect the environment, promote equitable development, and help to address the challenges of climate change. Geographi...

Moving forward with imperfect information: chapter 19

USGS Publications Warehouse

Averyt, Kristen; Brekke, Levi D.; Kaatz, Laurna; Welling, Leigh; Hartge, Eric H.; Iseman, Tom

2013-01-01

- Climate change is one of multiple stresses affecting the physical, biological, social, and economic systems of the Southwest, with population growth (and its related resource consumption, pollution, and land-sue changes) being particularly important.

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

Global disparity in the supply of commercial weather and climate information services

PubMed Central

Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn

2017-01-01

Information about weather and climate is vital for many areas of decision-making, particularly under conditions of increasing vulnerability and uncertainty related to climate change. We have quantified the global commercial supply of weather and climate information services. Although government data are sometimes freely available, the interpretation and analysis of those data, alongside additional data collection, are required to formulate responses to specific challenges in areas such as health, agriculture, and the built environment. Using transactional data, we analyzed annual spending by private and public organizations on commercial weather and climate information in more than 180 countries by industrial sector, region, per capita, and percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) and against the country’s climate and extreme weather risk. There are major imbalances regarding access to these essential services between different countries based on region and development status. There is also no relationship between the level of climate and weather risks that a country faces and the level of per capita spending on commercial weather and climate information in that country. At the international level, action is being taken to improve access to information services. With a better understanding of the flows of commercial weather and climate information, as explored in this study, it will be possible to tackle these regional and development-related disparities and thus to increase resilience to climate and weather risks. PMID:28560335

The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

2015-12-01

Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory environment where these data may then be correlated with regional climate data to investigate interactions between large-scale environmental changes and local impacts. Esri's Story Maps is a candidate mechanism for sharing of those findings among Tribal stakeholders.

Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2011-12-01

Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The AEZ concept is central to project-wide integration that will enable researchers, stakeholders, students, the public, and policymakers to acquire a more holistic understanding of the interrelationships of agriculture, climate change and the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore AEZ's are part of a prescription for land management, given climate change that will enable the incorporation of information from climate models, economic models, crop models, pest disease and weed vulnerabilities, and other data sources. Specific to this presentation, we address the AEZ-related objective of developing methodology for defining major AEZ's within the Inland Pacific Northwest REACCH study area based on annual NASS cropland data.

Climateurope: a network to support Europe's research and innovation activities in the fields of Earth-System modeling and climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Kotova, Lola; Manez, Maria; Jacob, Daniela; Hewitt, Chris; Garrett, Natalie; Monfray, Patrick; Doescher, Ralf; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Joussaume, Sylvie; Toumi, Ralf; Buonocore, Mauro; Gualdi, Silvio; Nickovic, Slobodan

2017-04-01

Changes in the climate are affecting many sectors but the audience of decision- and policy-makers is so wide and varied that the requirements from each application can be quite different. There are a growing number of initiatives at the international and European level, from research networks of data providers, operational services, impact assessments, to coordination of government initiatives and provision of policy relevant recommendations; all provided on a wide range of timescales. The landscape of activities is very diverse. Users and providers of climate information currently face significant challenges in understanding this complex landscape. If we are to maximize the benefits of the investments and provide European citizens with the information and technology to develop a climate-smart society, then a mechanism is needed to coordinate the impressive and varied research and innovation effort. The overall concept behind the EU-project Climateurope is to create and manage a framework to coordinate, integrate and support Europe's research and innovation activities in the fields of Earth-System modeling and climate services. The purpose of this concept is to create greater social and economic value for Europe through improved preparation for, and management of, climate-related risks and opportunities arising from making European world-class knowledge more useable and thus more applicable to policy- and decision-making. This value will be felt by a range of actors including the public sector, governments, business and industry. Climateurope will provide a comprehensive overview of all the relevant activities to ensure the society at large can take full advantage of the investment Europe is making in research and innovation and associated development of services. The Climateurope network will facilitate dialog among climate science communities, funding bodies, climate service providers and users. Through the communication and dissemination activities, Climateurope will establish multidisciplinary expert groups to access the state-of-the-art of Earth system modeling and climate services and will identify existing gaps, new challenges and emerging needs. During this presentation the activities and progress of the project (website, webinars, discussion platform, festivals, state-of-the-art report) will be presented shortly and we will indicate how interested people can join the network.

Livelihood resilience in the face of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanner, Thomas; Lewis, David; Wrathall, David; Bronen, Robin; Cradock-Henry, Nick; Huq, Saleemul; Lawless, Chris; Nawrotzki, Raphael; Prasad, Vivek; Rahman, Md. Ashiqur; Alaniz, Ryan; King, Katherine; McNamara, Karen; Nadiruzzaman, Md.; Henly-Shepard, Sarah; Thomalla, Frank

2015-01-01

The resilience concept requires greater attention to human livelihoods if it is to address the limits to adaptation strategies and the development needs of the planet's poorest and most vulnerable people. Although the concept of resilience is increasingly informing research and policy, its transfer from ecological theory to social systems leads to weak engagement with normative, social and political dimensions of climate change adaptation. A livelihood perspective helps to strengthen resilience thinking by placing greater emphasis on human needs and their agency, empowerment and human rights, and considering adaptive livelihood systems in the context of wider transformational changes.

NOAA's contribution to an informed society anticipating and responding to climate and its impacts through Climate.gov

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.

2012-12-01

Societal concern about the impacts of climate change is growing. Citizens in public and private sectors want easy access to credible climate science information to help them make informed decisions affecting their lives and livelihoods. Weather and climate influences almost every sector of society, and affects up to 40 percent of the United States' 10 trillion annual economy. (NRC report, 2003 entitled "Satellite Observations of the Earth's Environment: Accelerating the Transition of Research to Operations"). As the leading provider of climate, weather, and water information to the nation and the world, NOAA is a logical source for citizens to turn to for climate information. NOAA must expand and improve the way it communicates, educates, reaches out to, and engages with public stakeholders to better meet the nation's needs for timely, authoritative climate data and information. Citizens are increasingly going online to seek credible, authoritative climate information. However, users report having difficulty locating and using NOAA's online data products and services. Thus, resolving this online accessibility issue will be one of the Climate Portal's main benefits. The use of portal technology and emerging data integration and visualization tools provide an opportunity for NOAA to bring together multiple datasets from diverse disciplines and sources to deliver a more comprehensive picture of climate in the context of affected resources, communities and businesses. Additional benefits include wider extension of NOAA's data to other media such as television and free-choice learning venues, thereby increasing public exposure and engagement. The Climate Portal teams take an audience-focused approach to promoting climate science literacy among the public. The program communicates the challenges, processes, and results of NOAA-supported climate science through stories and data visualizations on the Web and in popular media. They provide information to a range of audiences to enhance society's ability to understand and plan and respond to climate variability and change. As part of a broad NOAA effort, the Climate Portal teams are working to design, test, and develop the NOAA Climate Services portal (climate.gov) that will provide ready access to climate data, information resources and educational products. The portal features customized interfaces for four audiences: scientists and sectoral data users, policy leaders, educators and students, and the public. The portal delivers climate science content that is free, readily accessible, and easily understandable, provided in flexible formats that maximize its usefulness. Important measures of success for NOAA's climate services will be the ease with which diverse public user communities are able to access and use the data products and information services that NOAA provides, the frequency with which they do so, and the trust they place in NOAA's climate resources. In addition to data and products, the Portal will offer a broad array of climate communications, outreach, and educational materials that demonstrate NOAA's leadership in providing climate science research, observations, and modeling products as a service to society. This session will discuss the partnerships and recent advancements of the climate portal and its plans for the coming year.

A Framework for Bridging Scientists, Knowledge Brokers and Local Decision Makers in State-level Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galford, G. L.; Nash, J. L.

2016-12-01

Large-scale analyses like the National Climate Assessment (NCA) contain a wealth of information critical to national and regional responses to climate change but tend to be insufficiently detailed for action at state or local levels. Many states now develop assessments (SCAs) to provide relevant, actionable information to state and local authorities. These assessments generate new or additional primary information, build networks and inform stakeholders. Based on our experience in the Vermont Climate Assessment (VCA), we present a SCA framework to engage local decision makers, using a fluid network of scientific experts and knowledge brokers to conduct subject area prioritization, data analysis, and writing. Knowledge brokers bridged the scientific and stakeholder communities, providing a two-way flow of information by capitalizing on their existing networks. Rich citizen records of climate and climate change impacts associated a human voice, a memorable story, or personal observation with a climate record, improving climate information salience. This engagement process that created salient climate information perceived as credible and legitimate by local and state decision makers. We present this framework as an effective structure for SCAs to foster interaction among scientists, knowledge brokers and stakeholders. We include a qualitative impact evaluation and lessons learned for future SCAs.

Earth System Science Education Centered on Natural Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, P. C.; Ladochy, S.; Patzert, W. C.; Willis, J. K.

2009-12-01

Several new courses and many educational activities related to climate change are available to teachers and students of all grade levels. However, not all new discoveries in climate research have reached the science education community. In particular, effective learning tools explaining natural climate change are scarce. For example, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a main cause of natural climate variability spanning decades. While most educators are familiar with the shorter-temporal events impacting climate, El Niño and La Niña, very little has trickled into the climate change curriculum on the PDO. We have developed two online educational modules, using an Earth system science approach, on the PDO and its role in climate change and variability. The first concentrates on the discovery of the PDO through records of salmon catch in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. We present the connection between salmon abundance in the North Pacific to changing sea surface temperature patterns associated with the PDO. The connection between sea surface temperatures and salmon abundance led to the discovery of the PDO. Our activity also lets students explore the role of salmon in the economy and culture of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska and the environmental requirements for salmon survival. The second module is based on the climate of southern California and how changes in the Pacific Ocean , such as the PDO and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), influence regional climate variability. PDO and ENSO signals are evident in the long-term temperature and precipitation record of southern California. Students are guided in the module to discover the relationships between Pacific Ocean conditions and southern California climate variability. The module also provides information establishing the relationship between climate change and variability and the state's water, energy, agriculture, wildfires and forestry, air quality and health issues. Both modules will be reviewed for inclusion on the ESSEA (Earth Systems Science Education Alliance) course module list. ESSEA is a NSF-funded organization dedicated to K-12 online Earth system science education.

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs This architecture will also be used for the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project. - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Regional Climate Service in Northern Germany -The North German Climate Office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinke, I.; Von Storch, H.

2012-12-01

The North German Climate Office was established in 2006 at the Institute for Coastal Research at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany as consequence of an increased public information need regarding coastal climate change and its impacts in Northern Germany. The service is characterized by an intensive dialogue between regional climate research and stakeholders in Northern Germany. About once a week scientists of the North German climate office are invited to contribute to public dialogue events. Also numerous direct inquiries are answered and expert interviews are conducted. From this dialogue process specific stakeholder information needs are localized and analysed to develop tailored information products. To provide easy and user specific access to research results interactive web tools are developed. One example is the North German climate atlas, an interactive web tool on possible future climate change in Northern Germany. Another interactive web tool is informing on present and future coastal protection needs in Northern Germany. Another aim of our information products is to assess and summarize the existing scientific knowledge on climate, climate change and impacts in Northern Germany. A mini IPCC-like regional assessment report has been published in 2010, which is summarizing, discussing and assessing the scientific knowledge on regional climate, climate change and impacts as well as possible adaptation strategies in the metropolitan region of Hamburg.