Importance of the Pre-Industrial Baseline in Determining the Likelihood of Exceeding the Paris Limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, M. E.; Schurer, A. P.; Hawkins, E.; Tett, S. F.; Hegerl, G. C.

2017-12-01

During the Paris Conference in 2015, nations of the world strengthened the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate Change by agreeing to holding "the increase in the globalaverage temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limitthe temperature increase to 1.5°C. However, "pre-industrial" was not defined. Here weinvestigate the implications of different choices of the pre-industrial baseline on the likelihood ofexceeding these two temperature thresholds. We find that for the strongest mitigation scenarioRCP2.6 and a medium scenario RCP4.5 the probability of exceeding the thresholds and timingof exceedance is highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline, for example the probability ofcrossing 1.5°C by the end of the century under RCP2.6, varies from 61% to 88% depending onhow the baseline is defined. In contrast, in the scenario with no mitigation, RCP8.5, boththresholds will almost certainly be exceeded by the middle of the century with the definition ofthe pre-industrial baseline of less importance. Allowable carbon emissions for thresholdstabilisation are similarly highly dependent on the pre-industrial baseline. For stabilisation at2°C, allowable emissions decrease by as much as 40% when earlier than 19th century climatesare considered as a baseline.

Mass support for global climate agreements depends on institutional design.

PubMed

Bechtel, Michael M; Scheve, Kenneth F

2013-08-20

Effective climate mitigation requires international cooperation, and these global efforts need broad public support to be sustainable over the long run. We provide estimates of public support for different types of climate agreements in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Using data from a large-scale experimental survey, we explore how three key dimensions of global climate cooperation--costs and distribution, participation, and enforcement--affect individuals' willingness to support these international efforts. We find that design features have significant effects on public support. Specifically, our results indicate that support is higher for global climate agreements that involve lower costs, distribute costs according to prominent fairness principles, encompass more countries, and include a small sanction if a country fails to meet its emissions reduction targets. In contrast to well-documented baseline differences in public support for climate mitigation efforts, opinion responds similarly to changes in climate policy design in all four countries. We also find that the effects of institutional design features can bring about decisive changes in the level of public support for a global climate agreement. Moreover, the results appear consistent with the view that the sensitivity of public support to design features reflects underlying norms of reciprocity and individuals' beliefs about the potential effectiveness of specific agreements.

IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR NATURAL RESOURCE DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, RESTORATION, AND REHABILITATION

PubMed Central

Rohr, Jason R; Johnson, Philip; Hickey, Christopher W; Helm, Roger C; Fritz, Alyce; Brasfield, Sandra

2013-01-01

Various international and national regulations hold polluters liable for the cleanup of released hazardous substances and the restoration/rehabilitation of natural resources to preincident baseline conditions, a process often referred to as natural resource damage assessment and restoration (NRDAR). Here, we, the authors, describe how global climate change (GCC) will challenge each of the steps of NRDAR processes and offer eight recommendations to improve these processes in light of GCC. First, we call for a better understanding of the net effects of GCC and contaminants on natural resources. Second, we urge facilities and environmental managers to plan for GCC-related factors that are expected to increase the probability of contaminant releases. Third, we suggest re-evaluating definitions of baseline and reference conditions given that GCC will alter both their trajectories and variability. Fourth, we encourage long-term monitoring to improve the quantification of baseline conditions that will change as climate changes. This will enhance the accuracy of injury assessments, the effectiveness of restoration, and the detection of early warning signs that ecosystems are approaching tipping points. Fifth, in response to or anticipation of GCC, restoration projects may need to be conducted in areas distant from the site of injury or focused on functionally equivalent natural resources; thus, community involvement in NRDAR processes will be increasingly important. Sixth, we promote using NRDAR restoration projects as opportunities to mitigate GCC-related impacts. Seventh, we recommend adaptive management approaches to NRDAR processes and communication of successes and failures widely. Finally, we recommend focusing on managing the stressors that might be exacerbated by GCC, such as pollution and habitat loss, because there is a long history of successfully mitigating these stressors, which can be more easily managed on local scales than climate change. We believe that adoption of these recommendations will lead to a more efficacious NRDAR process, despite the challenges posed by climate change. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:93–101. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23097077

Implications of global climate change for natural resource damage assessment, restoration, and rehabilitation.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Johnson, Philip; Hickey, Christopher W; Helm, Roger C; Fritz, Alyce; Brasfield, Sandra

2013-01-01

Various international and national regulations hold polluters liable for the cleanup of released hazardous substances and the restoration/rehabilitation of natural resources to preincident baseline conditions, a process often referred to as natural resource damage assessment and restoration (NRDAR). Here, we, the authors, describe how global climate change (GCC) will challenge each of the steps of NRDAR processes and offer eight recommendations to improve these processes in light of GCC. First, we call for a better understanding of the net effects of GCC and contaminants on natural resources. Second, we urge facilities and environmental managers to plan for GCC-related factors that are expected to increase the probability of contaminant releases. Third, we suggest re-evaluating definitions of baseline and reference conditions given that GCC will alter both their trajectories and variability. Fourth, we encourage long-term monitoring to improve the quantification of baseline conditions that will change as climate changes. This will enhance the accuracy of injury assessments, the effectiveness of restoration, and the detection of early warning signs that ecosystems are approaching tipping points. Fifth, in response to or anticipation of GCC, restoration projects may need to be conducted in areas distant from the site of injury or focused on functionally equivalent natural resources; thus, community involvement in NRDAR processes will be increasingly important. Sixth, we promote using NRDAR restoration projects as opportunities to mitigate GCC-related impacts. Seventh, we recommend adaptive management approaches to NRDAR processes and communication of successes and failures widely. Finally, we recommend focusing on managing the stressors that might be exacerbated by GCC, such as pollution and habitat loss, because there is a long history of successfully mitigating these stressors, which can be more easily managed on local scales than climate change. We believe that adoption of these recommendations will lead to a more efficacious NRDAR process, despite the challenges posed by climate change. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Atmospheric energy and water balance perspective to projection of global-scale precipitation increase: may mitigation policies unexpectedly amplify precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

2012-12-01

Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. From the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy budgets, we analyze strengthening of the hydrological cycle as measured by the increase in global-scale precipitation. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in precipitation increase in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside medium-high non-mitigation scenario (baseline), we considered an aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than baseline till around 2070, that is a couple of decades after that mitigation of global temperature was already well established in E1. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to baseline. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to baseline. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in baseline compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in baseline throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in mid and end 21C. It is only through a very large perturbation of surface fluxes that baseline achieves larger increase of global precipitation in the last decades of 21C. Our energy/water budget analysis shows that this behavior is ultimately due to a bifurcation in the Bowen ratios change between the two scenarios. This work warns that mitigation policies, by abating aerosols, may lead to unexpected stronger intensification of hydrological cycle and associated changes that may last for decades after that global warming is effectively mitigated. On the other hand, it is here suggested that predictable components of the radiative forcing by aerosols may have the potential to effectively contribute to the decadal-scale predictability of changes in the hydrological strength.

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE PAGES

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar; ...

2017-09-09

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Kriegler, Elmar

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development,more » regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).« less

Climate Indicators of Pace and Perception of Projected Changes Using CMIP5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

2014-12-01

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and a future period, emphasizing stronger warming as me move further from the current climate. This long-term vision is used in order to characterize quantitatively the magnitude and expected effects of mitigation policies across the globe, but is not well suited to discuss coming generations' experience. In this study, we propose an alternative approach that considers indicators of pace and perception of changes using projections of a Global Climate Model ensemble. First, it consists in tracking changes with a running baseline over periods of 20 years, defining the time evolution of the rate at which climate changes. Then, distributions of the following and previous 20 years are compared for each year. A 20-year baseline also enables to estimate the memory that a generation can have. We are mainly interested on mean and variability of surface air temperature and daily precipitation amounts. Under the strongest emission scenario (RCP8.5), pace and perception will become far stronger over the 21st century, with a maximum reached around 2060. While northern high-latitudes will witness a higher temperature rise, southern mid-latitudes will witness the largest warming rate increase resulting in a tripling by the end of the 21st century. They will also show a 45%-increase of drying rate by that time. In the tropics, a 64%-increase of moistening rate is displayed and indicators of perception are at their highest value, especially in West Africa and South-East Asia. Drying regions being globally fewer than moistening ones and drying rate being weaker than moistening one, a continuous modification of the hydrological cycle is confirmed. Besides, their spatial fraction over the globe appears to remain unchanged (about 60% of regions are moistening). Only the strongest mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) leads to a global return to historical regime. This approach shows that, under strong emissions, one should be prepared for higher adaptation rates in the coming decades.

Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

2014-12-01

Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

Identifying potential synergies and trade-offs for meeting food security and climate change objectives in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Palm, Cheryl A.; Smukler, Sean M.; Sullivan, Clare C.; Mutuo, Patrick K.; Nyadzi, Gerson I.; Walsh, Markus G.

2010-01-01

Potential interactions between food production and climate mitigation are explored for two situations in sub-Saharan Africa, where deforestation and land degradation overlap with hunger and poverty. Three agriculture intensification scenarios for supplying nitrogen to increase crop production (mineral fertilizer, herbaceous legume cover crops—green manures—and agroforestry—legume improved tree fallows) are compared to baseline food production, land requirements to meet basic caloric requirements, and greenhouse gas emissions. At low population densities and high land availability, food security and climate mitigation goals are met with all intensification scenarios, resulting in surplus crop area for reforestation. In contrast, for high population density and small farm sizes, attaining food security and reducing greenhouse gas emissions require mineral fertilizers to make land available for reforestation; green manure or improved tree fallows do not provide sufficient increases in yields to permit reforestation. Tree fallows sequester significant carbon on cropland, but green manures result in net carbon dioxide equivalent emissions because of nitrogen additions. Although these results are encouraging, agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa with mineral fertilizers, green manures, or improved tree fallows will remain low without policies that address access, costs, and lack of incentives. Carbon financing for small-holder agriculture could increase the likelihood of success of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries programs and climate change mitigation but also promote food security in the region. PMID:20453198

Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.

2013-06-01

Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standardmore » RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.« less

Voluntary climate change mitigation actions of young adults: a classification of mitigators through latent class analysis.

PubMed

Korkala, Essi A E; Hugg, Timo T; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2014-01-01

Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns.

Voluntary Climate Change Mitigation Actions of Young Adults: A Classification of Mitigators through Latent Class Analysis

PubMed Central

Korkala, Essi A. E.; Hugg, Timo T.; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.

2014-01-01

Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns. PMID:25054549

21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

PubMed

Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

2015-08-25

There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in Chinese Eco-Industrial Parks by Targeting Energy Infrastructure: A Vintage Stock Model.

PubMed

Guo, Yang; Tian, Jinping; Chertow, Marian; Chen, Lujun

2016-10-03

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's industrial sector is crucial for addressing climate change. We developed a vintage stock model to quantify the GHG mitigation potential and cost effectiveness in Chinese eco-industrial parks by targeting energy infrastructure with five key measures. The model, integrating energy efficiency assessments, GHG emission accounting, cost-effectiveness analyses, and scenario analyses, was applied to 548 units of energy infrastructure in 106 parks. The results indicate that two measures (shifting coal-fired boilers to natural gas-fired boilers and replacing coal-fired units with natural gas combined cycle units) present a substantial potential to mitigate GHGs (42%-46%) compared with the baseline scenario. The other three measures (installation of municipal solid waste-to-energy units, replacement of small-capacity coal-fired units with large units, and implementation of turbine retrofitting) present potential mitigation values of 6.7%, 0.3%, and 2.1%, respectively. In most cases, substantial economic benefits also can be achieved by GHG emission mitigation. An uncertainty analysis showed that enhancing the annual working time or serviceable lifetime levels could strengthen the GHG mitigation potential at a lower cost for all of the measures.

Why do some people do "more" to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations.

PubMed

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.

Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christov, Christo

1996-01-01

Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987 1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO2 emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayers, Jessica M.; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

The value of linking mitigation and adaptation: a case study of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ayers, Jessica M; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Folberth, Christian; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schmid, Erwin

2015-01-01

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Pathways to Mexico’s climate change mitigation targets: A multi-model analysis

DOE PAGES

Veysey, Jason; Octaviano, Claudia; Calvin, Katherine; ...

2015-04-25

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. Here, we investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along withmore » changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.« less

Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

2016-06-01

Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2-15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

Why Do Some People Do “More” to Mitigate Climate Change than Others? Exploring Heterogeneity in Psycho-Social Associations

PubMed Central

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. PMID:25191841

Spatial and Temporal Means and Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Climate Indicators from Satellite Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W.; Bliss, A. C.; Steele, M.; Dickinson, S.

2017-12-01

Arctic sea ice has been undergoing rapid and accelerated loss since satellite-based measurements became available in late 1970s, especially the summer ice coverage. For the Arctic as a whole, the long-term trend for the annual sea ice extent (SIE) minimum is about -13.5±2.93 % per decade change relative to the 1979-2015 climate average, while the trends of the annual SIE minimum for the local regions can range from 0 to up to -42 % per decade. This presentation aims to examine and baseline spatial and temporal means and variability of Arctic sea ice climate indicators, such as the annual SIE minimum and maximum, snow/ice melt onset, etc., from a consistent, inter-calibrated, long-term time series of remote sensing sea ice data for understanding regional vulnerability and monitoring ice state for climate adaptation and risk mitigation.

Baseline-dependent responses of soil organic carbon dynamics to climate and land disturbances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Zhengxi; Liu, Shuguang

2013-01-01

Terrestrial carbon (C) sequestration through optimizing land use and management is widely considered a realistic option to mitigate the global greenhouse effect. But how the responses of individual ecosystems to changes in land use and management are related to baseline soil organic C (SOC) levels still needs to be evaluated at various scales. In this study, we modeled SOC dynamics within both natural and managed ecosystems in North Dakota of the United States and found that the average SOC stock in the top 20 cm depth of soil lost at a rate of 450 kg C ha−1 yr−1 in cropland and 110 kg C ha−1 yr−1 in grassland between 1971 and 1998. Since 1998, the study area had become a SOC sink at a rate of 44 kg C ha−1 yr−1. The annual rate of SOC change in all types of lands substantially depends on the magnitude of initial SOC contents, but such dependency varies more with climatic variables within natural ecosystems and with management practices within managed ecosystems. Additionally, soils with high baseline SOC stocks tend to be C sources following any land surface disturbances, whereas soils having low baseline C contents likely become C sinks following conservation management.

Strategic Planning for Drought Mitigation Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, X.; Zeng, R.; Valocchi, A. J.; Song, J.

2012-12-01

Droughts continue to be a major natural hazard and mounting evidence of global warming confronts society with a pressing question: Will climate change aggravate the risk of drought at local scale? It is important to explore what additional risk will be imposed by climate change and what level of strategic measures should be undertaken now to avoid vulnerable situations in the future, given that tactical measures may not avoid large damage. This study addresses the following key questions on strategic planning for drought mitigation under climate change: What combination of strategic and tactical measures will move the societal system response from a vulnerable situation to a resilient one with minimum cost? Are current infrastructures and their operation enough to mitigate the damage of future drought, or do we need in-advance infrastructure expansion for future drought preparedness? To address these questions, this study presents a decision support framework based on a coupled simulation and optimization model. A quasi-physically based watershed model is established for the Frenchman Creek Basin (FCB), part of the Republic River Basin, where groundwater based irrigation plays a significant role in agriculture production and local hydrological cycle. The physical model is used to train a statistical surrogate model, which predicts the watershed responses under future climate conditions. The statistical model replaces the complex physical model in the simulation-optimization framework, which makes the models computationally tractable. Decisions for drought preparedness include traditional short-term tactical measures (e.g. facility operation) and long-term or in-advance strategic measures, which require capital investment. A scenario based three-stage stochastic optimization model assesses the roles of strategic measures and tactical measures in drought preparedness and mitigation. Two benchmark climate prediction horizons, 2040s and 2090s, represent mid-term and long-term planning, respectively, compared to the baseline of the climate of 1980-2000. To handle uncertainty in climate change projections, outputs from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) with Regional Climate Model (RCM) for dynamic downscaling (PCM-RCM, Hadley-RCM, and CCSM-RCM) and four CO2 emission scenarios are used to represent the various possible climatic conditions in the mid-term (2040's) and long-term (2090's) time horizons. The model results show the relative roles of mid- and long-term investments and the complementary relationships between wait-and-see decisions and here-and-now decisions on infrastructure expansion. Even the best tactical measures (irrigation operation) alone are not sufficient for drought mitigation in the future. Infrastructure expansion is critical especially for environmental conversation purposes. With increasing budget, investment should be shifted from tactical measures to strategic measures for drought preparedness. Infrastructure expansion is preferred for the long term plan than the mid-term plan, i.e., larger investment is proposed in 2040s than the current, due to a larger likelihood of drought in 2090s than 2040s. Thus larger BMP expansion is proposed in 2040s for droughts preparedness in 2090s.

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

PubMed

Hertwich, Edgar G; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A; Arvesen, Anders; Suh, Sangwon; Heath, Garvin A; Bergesen, Joseph D; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I; Shi, Lei

2015-05-19

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies

PubMed Central

Hertwich, Edgar G.; Gibon, Thomas; Bouman, Evert A.; Arvesen, Anders; Heath, Garvin A.; Bergesen, Joseph D.; Ramirez, Andrea; Vega, Mabel I.; Shi, Lei

2015-01-01

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11–40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6–14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050. PMID:25288741

A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

2009-12-01

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

Community based ecological restoration of peatland in Central Mongolia for climate change mitigation and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minayeva, Tatiana; Chultem, Dugarjav; Grootjans, Ab; Yamkhin, Jambaljav; Sirin, Andrey; Suvorov, Gennady; Batdorj, Oyunbileg; Tsamba, Batdorj

2017-04-01

Peatlands cover almost 2 % of Mongolia. They play crucial role in regulation of key natural processes in ecosystems and provide unique resources to maintain traditional way of life and livelihoods of herders. During the last decades, Mongolian peatlands severely degraded both due to the climate related events and due to overgrazing. The peat degradation causes significant losses of carbon store, GHG emissions and is followed by changes in water balance and water composition. The issue arises if such a type of ecosystems as peatlands could be a subject for ecosystem restoration in this arid and subhumid climate. Could it be considered as measure for climate change mitigation and adaptation? With funding opportunities from the Asian Development Bank a pilot project for peatland restoration had been launched in 2016 in Khashaat soum, Arkhangai aimag in Central Mongolia. The pilot aimed to merge local interests of herders with global targets of climate change mitigation. The following questions are addressed: what are the losses of natural functions and ecosystem services of peatland; what are expectations and demands of local communities and incentives for their involvement; how should and could look the target ecosystem; what are the technical solutions in order to achieve the target ecosystem characteristics; and what are the parameters for monitoring to assess the success of the project? The comprehensive baseline study addressed both natural and social aspects. The conclusions are: most of peat in the study area had been mineralised and has turned to organic rich soil with carbon content between 20 to 40 %, the key sources of water - small springs - are partly destroyed by cattle; the permafrost disappeared in this area and could not be the subject for restoration; local herders understand the value of peatland as water source and had carried out some voluntary activities for water storage and regulation such as dam construction; nevertheless there is no understanding of functional particularities of peatland ecosystem and restoration efforts are not effective. Following the baseline study the concept for ecosystem restoration project had been developed. The approach was to merge community based solution with scientific approaches. Restoration in subhumid conditions should avoid creation of open water surfaces, like channels or reservoirs, and deal with integrative ecosystem management. The restoration concept involved fencing of springs, preventing erosion and enhancing water accumulation in soil by cascades of small dams and other small scale ecological solutions. At the same time to meet the needs of local herders, it was decided to repair the dam, constructed by herders, even if it has little value for peatland restoration. The engineering design is now ready and will be implemented next months. The last part of the pilot is monitoring. The parameters determined in the baseline study are included in monitoring program to help to evaluate: carbon sequestration rate, GHG emission reduction, water retention, soil humidity, pasture productivity, social integrity and impact on livelihoods.

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Lucas S. Bair

2006-01-01

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes...

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

PubMed

Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-02-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

The Moving Target of Climate Mitigation: Examples from the Energy Sector in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Forrest, K.; Chiang, F.; Samuelsen, S.

2016-12-01

In response to the concerns of climate change-induced impacts on human health, environmental integrity, and the secure operation of resource supply infrastructures, strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of major societal sectors have been in development. In the energy sector, these strategies are based in low carbon primary energy deployment, increased energy efficiency, and implementing complementary technologies for operational resilience. While these strategies are aimed at climate mitigation, a degree of climate change-induced impacts will occur by the time of their deployment, and many of these impacts can compromise the effectiveness of these climate mitigation strategies. In order to develop climate mitigation strategies that will achieve their GHG reduction and other goals, the impact that climate change-induced conditions can have on different components of climate mitigation strategies must be understood. This presentation will highlight three examples of how climate change-induced conditions affect components of climate mitigation strategies in California: through impacts on 1) hydropower generation, 2) renewable potential for geothermal and solar thermal resources to form part of the renewable resource portfolio, and 3) the magnitudes and shapes of the electric load demand that must be met sustainably. These studies are part of a larger, overarching project to understand how climate change impacts the energy system and how to develop a sustainable energy infrastructure that is resilient against these impacts.

Ninth Graders and Climate Change: Attitudes towards Consequences, Views on Mitigation, and Predictors of Willingness to Act

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hermans, Mikaela; Korhonen, Johan

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine Finnish ninth graders' attitudes towards the consequences of climate change, their views on climate change mitigation and the impact of a set of selected predictors on their willingness to act in climate change mitigation. Students (N = 549) from 11 secondary schools participated in the questionnaire-based…

Global potential of biospheric carbon management for climate mitigation.

PubMed

Canadell, Josep G; Schulze, E Detlef

2014-11-19

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), have affected the global climate. Land-based biological carbon mitigation strategies are considered an important and viable pathway towards climate stabilization. However, to satisfy the growing demands for food, wood products, energy, climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation-all of which compete for increasingly limited quantities of biomass and land-the deployment of mitigation strategies must be driven by sustainable and integrated land management. If executed accordingly, through avoided emissions and carbon sequestration, biological carbon and bioenergy mitigation could save up to 38 billion tonnes of carbon and 3-8% of estimated energy consumption, respectively, by 2050.

Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Roy, Joyashree; Lamb, William F.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Dalkmann, Holger; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Geels, Frank W.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hepburn, Cameron; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Khosla, Radhika; Mattauch, Linus; Minx, Jan C.; Ramakrishnan, Anjali; Rao, Narasimha D.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Tavoni, Massimo; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Weber, Elke U.

2018-04-01

Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.

Changes in Benefits of Flood Protection Standard under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, W. H.; Koirala, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Kanae, S.

2014-12-01

Understanding potential risk of river flooding under future climate scenarios might be helpful for developing risk management strategies (including mitigation, adaptation). Such analyses are typically performed at the macro scales (e.g., regional, global) where the climate model output could support (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014). To understand the potential benefits of infrastructure upgrading as part of climate adaptation strategies, it is also informative to understand the potential impact of different flood protection standards (in terms of return periods) on global river flooding under climate change. In this study, we use a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and CMIP5 model output (historic and future periods) to drive a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011) and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the potential risk of river flooding and changes in the benefits of flood protection standard (e.g., 100-year flood of the baseline period) from the past into the future (represented by the representative concentration pathways). In this presentation, we show our preliminary results. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S., N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2011-12-01

Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The AEZ concept is central to project-wide integration that will enable researchers, stakeholders, students, the public, and policymakers to acquire a more holistic understanding of the interrelationships of agriculture, climate change and the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore AEZ's are part of a prescription for land management, given climate change that will enable the incorporation of information from climate models, economic models, crop models, pest disease and weed vulnerabilities, and other data sources. Specific to this presentation, we address the AEZ-related objective of developing methodology for defining major AEZ's within the Inland Pacific Northwest REACCH study area based on annual NASS cropland data.

Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

PubMed Central

Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

2015-01-01

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers’ trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management). PMID:25983336

The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

Sea level rise under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, C. F.; Nauels, A.; Rogelj, J.; Mengel, M.; Meinshausen, M.

2017-12-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present Sea Level Rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative Forcing Targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for latest research on additional Antarctic rapid discharge dynamics from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 102 cm (likely range: 77 to 135 cm) for SSP1, 118 cm (90 to 151 cm) for SSP2, 118 cm (91 to 149 cm) for SSP3, 107 cm (81 to 137 cm) for SSP4, and 144 cm (112 to 184 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios is dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 68 cm (56 to 87 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 76 cm (61 to 107 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 90 cm (68 to 120 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 105 cm (79 to 136 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual rates of SLR are 6 mm/yr and 19 mm/yr for the FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. For limiting median 2100 SSP SLR projections to below 80 cm, we find that 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial should not exceed around 860 GtC, with the global coal phase-out nearly completed. For SSP mitigation scenarios, the median 2050 carbon price of 90 US$2005 tCO2-1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 80 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diffuse nutrient pollution from agricultural landscapes is a priority water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change and climate variability impact hydrology, nutrient cycling, and ultimately water quality, which can complicate mitigation measures. Climate cha...

Geography Teachers and Climate Change: Emotions about Consequences, Coping Strategies, and Views on Mitigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hermans, Mikaela

2016-01-01

It has been indicated that teachers' emotions about climate change and their views on mitigation influence their instruction and students' engagement in mitigation actions. The aim of the study is to explore Finnish secondary geography teachers' emotions about the consequences of climate change, their strategies for coping with these emotions, and…

Comparing impacts of climate change and mitigation on global agriculture by 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Meijl, Hans; Havlik, Petr; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Stehfest, Elke; Witzke, Peter; Pérez Domínguez, Ignacio; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; van Dijk, Michiel; Doelman, Jonathan; Fellmann, Thomas; Humpenöder, Florian; Koopman, Jason F. L.; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Tabeau, Andrzej; Valin, Hugo; van Zeist, Willem-Jan

2018-06-01

Systematic model inter-comparison helps to narrow discrepancies in the analysis of the future impact of climate change on agricultural production. This paper presents a set of alternative scenarios by five global climate and agro-economic models. Covering integrated assessment (IMAGE), partial equilibrium (CAPRI, GLOBIOM, MAgPIE) and computable general equilibrium (MAGNET) models ensures a good coverage of biophysical and economic agricultural features. These models are harmonized with respect to basic model drivers, to assess the range of potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector by 2050. Moreover, they quantify the economic consequences of stringent global emission mitigation efforts, such as non-CO2 emission taxes and land-based mitigation options, to stabilize global warming at 2 °C by the end of the century under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. A key contribution of the paper is a vis-à-vis comparison of climate change impacts relative to the impact of mitigation measures. In addition, our scenario design allows assessing the impact of the residual climate change on the mitigation challenge. From a global perspective, the impact of climate change on agricultural production by mid-century is negative but small. A larger negative effect on agricultural production, most pronounced for ruminant meat production, is observed when emission mitigation measures compliant with a 2 °C target are put in place. Our results indicate that a mitigation strategy that embeds residual climate change effects (RCP2.6) has a negative impact on global agricultural production relative to a no-mitigation strategy with stronger climate impacts (RCP6.0). However, this is partially due to the limited impact of the climate change scenarios by 2050. The magnitude of price changes is different amongst models due to methodological differences. Further research to achieve a better harmonization is needed, especially regarding endogenous food and feed demand, including substitution across individual commodities, and endogenous technological change.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Global and local concerns: what attitudes and beliefs motivate farmers to mitigate and adapt to climate change?

PubMed

Haden, Van R; Niles, Meredith T; Lubell, Mark; Perlman, Joshua; Jackson, Louise E

2012-01-01

In response to agriculture's vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people's concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California's Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.

Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

2009-01-01

Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

78 FR 12807 - Call for Expert Reviewers to the U.S. Government Review of the Working Group III Contribution to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-02-25

... on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change SUMMARY: The United States Global Change... Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Mitigation of Climate Change. The United Nations Environment Programme...-economic information for understanding the scientific basis of climate change, potential impacts, and...

Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

PubMed

Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

2015-09-15

Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector

PubMed Central

Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. PMID:29684041

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector.

PubMed

Peterson St-Laurent, Guillaume; Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia's forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors.

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

2015-12-01

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future, emphasizing stronger warming as we move further from the current climate. Under climate conditions that are continuously evolving, human systems might have to constantly adapt to a changing target. We propose here an alternative approach, and consider indicators of the pace of temperature change and its effects on temperature distributions estimated from projections of an ensemble of 18 General Circulation Models. The pace is represented by a rate defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP 8.5), the warming rate strongly increases over the twenty-first century, with a maximum reached before 2080. Whilst northern high-latitudes witness the highest temperature rise, all other latitudes highlight at least a doubling in the warming rate compared to the current period. The spatial extent of significant shifts in annual temperature distributions between two subsequent 20-year periods is projected to be at least four times larger than in the current period. They are mainly located in tropical areas, such as West Africa and South-East Asia. The fraction of the world population exposed to these shifts grows from 8% to 60% from around 2060 onwards, i.e. reaching 6 billions people. In contrast, low mitigation measures (RCP 6.0) are sufficient to keep the warming rate similar to current values. Under the medium mitigation pathway (RCP 4.5), population exposure to significant shifts drops to negligible values by the end of the century. Strong mitigation measures (RCP 2.6) are the only option that generates a global return to historical conditions regarding our indicators. Considering the pace of change can bring an alternative way to interact with climate impacts and adaptation communities.

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P

2014-02-18

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Assessment of simulated and projected climate change in Pakistan using IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saeed, F.; Athar, H.

2017-11-01

A detailed spatio-temporal assessment of two basic climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) is carried out using 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4)-based atmospheric oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMs) over data-sparse and climatically vulnerable region of Pakistan (20°-37° N and 60°-78° E), for the first time, for the baseline period (1975-1999), as well as for the three projected periods during the twenty-first century centered at 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099, respectively, both on seasonal and on annual bases, under three Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2, A1B, and B1. An ensemble-based approach consisting of the IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs indicates that during the winter season (from December to March), 66% of the models display robust projected increase of winter precipitation by about 10% relative to the baseline period, irrespective of emission scenario and projection period, in the upper northern subregion of Pakistan (latitude > 35° N). The projected robust changes in the temperature by the end of twenty-first century are in the range of 3 to 4 ° C during the winter season and on an annual basis, in the central and western regions of Punjab province, especially in A2 and A1B emission scenarios. In particular, the IPCC AR4 models project a progressive increase in temperature throughout Pakistan, in contrast to spatial distribution of precipitation, where spatially less uniform and robust results for projected periods are obtained on sign of change. In general, changes in both precipitation and temperature are larger in the summer season (JAS) as compared to the winter season in the coming decades, relative to the baseline period. This may require comprehensive long-term strategic policies to adapt and mitigate climate change in Pakistan, in comparison to what is currently envisaged.

Managing U.S. climate risk through mitigation: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Houser, T.; Larsen, K.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Jina, A.; Rising, J.; Delgado, M.; Mohan, S.; Muir-Wood, R.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the economic risks posed to the United States by six categories of climate change impacts: crop yield, energy demand, coastal storm damage, criminal activity, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. At a national level, measured by impact on gross domestic product, increased mortality and decreased labor productivity pose the large risks, followed by increased energy demand and coastal damages. Changes in crop yield and crime have smaller impacts. The ACP was not intended to conduct a benefit-cost analysis of climate change mitigation. It assessed the economic consequences of future impacts on an economy with a structure equivalent to that of the current economy, not accounting for socio-economic development and adaptation, and did not assess the cost of mitigation. One of its primary goals was to inform adaptation decisions that are conventionally considered 'endogenous' in economic analyses of climate change. Nonetheless, its results provide insight into the potential of mitigation to manage climate risk. Differences between RCP 8.5 (moderately-high business-as-usual emissions), RCP 4.5 (moderate mitigation) and RCP 2.6 (extremely strong mitigation) are not apparent until mid-century and become significant only late in the century. For all impacts except coastal damages, mitigation significantly reduces uncertainty in late-century impact estimates. Nationally, mitigation significantly and monotonically reduces median projected labor productivity losses and violent crime. Switching from RCP 8.5 to RCP 4.5 also significantly reduces median projections of mortality and energy demand, but the domestic value to the U.S. of further mitigation to RCP 2.6 is less clear. The marginal benefits decline in part because some regions of the country (especially the Northwest) may experience increased crop yields, reduced mortality, and reduced energy demand under all RCPs. Because of the slow response time of sea level to change in emissions, the coastal risk reduction in the current century from mitigation is least clear. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Land use and climate change: A global perspective on mitigation options: discussion

Treesearch

R. J. Alig

2010-01-01

Land use change can play a very significant role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, as part of efficient portfolios of many land-related activities. Questions involving forestry’s and agriculture’s potential contributions to climate change mitigation are framed within a national context of increased demands for cropland, forage, and wood products to help feed...

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

USDA southwest regional hub for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made ...

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Improved representation of investment decisions in assessments of CO2 mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, Gokul C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Flannery, Brian P.; Hultman, Nathan E.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Victor, David G.

2015-05-01

Assessments of emissions mitigation patterns have largely ignored the huge variation in real-world factors--in particular, institutions--that affect where, how and at what costs firms deploy capital. We investigate one such factor--how national institutions affect investment risks and thus the cost of financing. We use an integrated assessment model (IAM; ref. ) to represent the variation in investment risks across technologies and regions in the electricity generation sector--a pivotally important sector in most assessments of climate change mitigation--and compute the impact on the magnitude and distribution of mitigation costs. This modified representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, achieving an emissions mitigation goal is more expensive than it would be in a world with uniform investment risks. Second, industrialized countries mitigate more, and developing countries mitigate less. Here, we introduce a new front in the research on how real-world factors influence climate mitigation. We also suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element of cost-effective climate mitigation strategies.

Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Hurtt, George; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-02-19

The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon12 efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial sequestration capacity is affected by future climate feedbacks, but how and to what extent is little understood. Here, we show that climate mitigation strategies are highly sensitive to future natural disturbance rates (e.g. fires, hurricanes, droughts), because ofmore » potential effect of disturbances on the terrestrial carbon balance. Generally, altered disturbance rates affect the pace of societal and technological transitions required to achieve the mitigation target, with substantial consequences on the energy sector and on the global economy. Understanding the future dynamics and consequences of natural disturbances on terrestrial carbon balance is thus essential for developing robust climate mitigation strategies and policies« less

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-Francois; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-04-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price could substantially affect other Sustainable Development Goals. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in agriculture for agricultural production and food security using an integrated modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between climate change mitigation and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming to 1.5 C, results indicate a food calorie loss in 2050 of up to 330 kcal per capita in food insecure countries. If only developed countries participated in the mitigation effort, the calorie loss would be 40 kcal per capita, however the climate target would not be achieved. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land using a comprehensive set of management options, would allow achieving a 1.5 C target while reducing the implied calorie loss by up to 70% and storing up to 3.5 GtCO2 in soils. Hence, the promotion of so called "win-win" mitigation options i.e. soil carbon sequestration, and ensuring successful mitigation of land use change emissions are crucial to stabilize the climate without deteriorating food security.

Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

PubMed

Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

2016-02-01

Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Engineering Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belter, C. W.; Seidel, D. J.

2013-12-01

The past five years have seen a dramatic increase in the number of media and scientific publications on the topic of climate engineering, or geoengineering, and some scientists are increasingly calling for more research on climate engineering as a possible supplement to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. In this context, understanding the current state of climate engineering research can help inform policy discussions and guide future research directions. Bibliometric analysis - the quantitative analysis of publications - is particularly applicable to fields with large bodies of literature that are difficult to summarize by traditional review methods. The multidisciplinary nature of the published literature on climate engineering makes it an ideal candidate for bibliometric analysis. Publications on climate engineering are found to be relatively recent (more than half of all articles during 1988-2011 were published since 2008), include a higher than average percentage of non-research articles (30% compared with 8-15% in related scientific disciplines), and be predominately produced by countries located in the Northern Hemisphere and speaking English. The majority of this literature focuses on land-based methods of carbon sequestration, ocean iron fertilization, and solar radiation management and is produced with little collaboration among research groups. This study provides a summary of existing publications on climate engineering, a perspective on the scientific underpinnings of the global dialogue on climate engineering, and a baseline for quantitatively monitoring the development of climate engineering research in the future.

A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

Farm Simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Farms both produce greenhouse gas emissions that drive human-induced climate change and are impacted by that climate change. Whole farm and global climate models provide useful tools for studying the benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and the adaptation of farms to changing climate. The...

Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2018-02-01

Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications climate change has had on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report describes the potential scope and magnitude of climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow (CSOs) mitigation efforts in the Great Lakes Region and New England Region.

Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

EPA Science Inventory

An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

Alleviating inequality in climate policy costs: an integrated perspective on mitigation, damage and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Cian, E.; Hof, A. F.; Marangoni, G.; Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.

2016-07-01

Equity considerations play an important role in international climate negotiations. While policy analysis has often focused on equity as it relates to mitigation costs, there are large regional differences in adaptation costs and the level of residual damage. This paper illustrates the relevance of including adaptation and residual damage in equity considerations by determining how the allocation of emission allowances would change to counteract regional differences in total climate costs, defined as the costs of mitigation, adaptation, and residual damage. We compare emission levels resulting from a global carbon tax with two allocations of emission allowances under a global cap-and-trade system: one equating mitigation costs and one equating total climate costs as share of GDP. To account for uncertainties in both mitigation and adaptation, we use a model-comparison approach employing two alternative modeling frameworks with different damage, adaptation cost, and mitigation cost estimates, and look at two different climate goals. Despite the identified model uncertainties, we derive unambiguous results on the change in emission allowance allocation that could lessen the unequal distribution of adaptation costs and residual damages through the financial transfers associated with emission trading.

Some Good Practices for Integration and Outreach and their Implementation in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) and its associated web portal CLIMASCOPE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R. F.; Price, J. T.; Goswami, S.

2010-12-01

Successful communication of knowledge to climate change policy makers requires the careful integration of scientific knowledge in an integrated assessment that can be clearly communicated to stakeholders, and which encapsulates the uncertainties in the analysis and conveys the need for using a risk assessment approach. It is important that (i) the system is co-designed with the users (ii) relevant disciplines are included (iii) assumptions made are clear (iv) the robustness of outputs to uncertainties is demonstrated (v) the system is flexible so that it can keep up with changing stakeholder needs and (vi) the results are communicated clearly and are readily accessible. The “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS) is a unique multi-institutional, modular, and flexible integrated assessment system for modeling climate change which fulfils the above six criteria. It differs from other integrated models in being a flexible system allowing various combinations of component modules, to be connected together into alternative integrated assessment models. These modules may be written at different institutions in different computer languages and/or based on different operating systems. Scientists are able determine which particular CIAS coupled model they wish to use through a web portal. This includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental design facilitating formal uncertainty analysis. Further exploration of robustness is possible through the ability to select, for example, alternative hyrdrological or climate models to address the same questions. It has been applied to study future scenarios of climate change mitigation, through for example the AVOIDing dangerous climate change project for DEFRA, in which the avoided impacts (benefits) of alternative climate policies were compared to no-policy baselines. These highlight the potential for mitigation to remove a substantial fraction of the climate change impacts that would otherwise occur; but also show that is not possible to avoid all the impacts, and hence that adaptation will still be required. For example, this has been shown for projections of future European drought. CIAS has also been used for analyses used in the IPCC 4AR and the Stern review. Recent applications include a study of the role of avoided deforestation in climate mitigation, and a study of the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. A second web portal, CLIMASCOPE, is being developed for use by stakeholders, currently focusing on the needs of adaptation planners. This will benefit communication by allowing a wide range of users free access to regional climate change projections in simple manner, yet one which encourages risk assessment through encapsulation of the uncertainties in climate change projection. Examples of CLIMASCOPE output that is being made available to stakeholders will be shown.

Quantifying the Benefit of Early Climate Change Mitigation in Avoiding Biodiversity Loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, R.; Vanderwal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J.; Atkinson, I. M.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T.; Shoo, L.; Jarvis, A.; Williams, S.; Lowe, J. A.

2014-12-01

Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss are presented. Previous studies have projected widespread global and regional impacts of climate change on biodiversity. However, these have focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change induced biodiversity loss projected for the 2080s. Furthermore, despite the large number of studies addressing extinction risks in particular species groups, few studies have explored the issue of potential range loss in common and widespread species. Our study is a comprehensive global scale analysis of 48,786 common and widespread species. We show that without climate change mitigation, 57+/-6% of the plants and 34+/-7% of the animals studied are likely to lose over 50% of their present climatic range by the 2080s. This estimate incorporates realistic, taxon-specific dispersal rates. With stringent mitigation, in which emissions peak in 2016 and are reduced by 5% annually thereafter, these losses are reduced by 60%. Furthermore, with stringent mitigation, global temperature rises more slowly, allowing an additional three decades for biodiversity to adapt to a temperature rise of 2C above pre-industrial levels. The work also shows that even with mitigation not all the impacts can now be avoided, and ecosystems and biodiversity generally has a very limited capacity to adapt. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, for example if emissions do not peak until 2030, the percentage of losses that can be avoided declines to 40%. Since even small declines in common and widespread species can disrupt ecosystem function and services, these results indicate that without mitigation, globally widespread losses in ecosystem service provision are to be expected.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John

2018-04-04

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John

2018-01-01

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317

Projection of ambient PM2.5 exposure in India and associated health burden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Sourangsu; Dey, Sagnik; Smith, Kirk

2017-04-01

Ambient particulate matter with diameter < 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the major criteria pollutant for health assessments of air quality. (WHO, 2006). Exposure to PM2.5 has potential health risks due to cardiovascular and respiratory diseases leading to premature mortality. The annual premature mortality burden from ambient PM2.5 exposure in India is large ( 0.6-0.8 million). It is important to understand how the ambient PM2.5 concentration will change in future under the warming climate and how it translates into premature mortality, when the population distribution exposed to the pollution and baseline mortality are expected to change in response to changes in socio-economic condition to adapt to climate change impacts. We estimate ambient PM2.5 future (up to 2100) by adopting 2 approaches. In the first approach, PM2.5 is estimated as a product of AOD from the CMIP5 models (under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) and the present day conversion factor estimated by the Geos-CHEM model as a function of present day meteorological conditions and emission. The second approach involves adding up all the PM2.5 components (SO4, NH4, BC, SOA, POA, a fraction of sea salt and dust) available from 13 CMIP5 models under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios. The change is represented in relative terms with respect to the baseline period PM2.5 exposure (2001-2005), when satellite data are available and the CMIP5 models are run in historical mode. The difference between these two approaches implies the role of meteorology in modulating PM2.5 exposure for future due to climate change. We present the decadal statistics and separate the role of meteorology from the combined role of meteorology and emission in modulating PM2.5 variability. We project premature mortality for future using population for future, projected under 5 SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios (definitions of these scenarios are provided in Table 1) developed by IIASA. The population under these five scenarios have varying capability to adapt and mitigate to cope up with the changing climate. We estimate premature mortality for two cases, (i) assuming BM to remain constant as of the present day, and (ii) modifying the BM as a function of gross development product. Relative risk is estimated using the IER function. Hence we develop customized scenarios for estimating premature death by linking projected PM2.5 under 2 RCP scenarios with population and baseline mortality from 5 SSP scenarios for each decade up to 2100, creating a total of 10 combined scenarios for each decade. We project that if baseline mortality remains as of present day (WHO 2011) then premature mortality increases up to the middle of the century and then decreases, but never decreases below the present day premature mortality, whereas if we assume that baseline mortality varies as a exponentially decaying function of GDP, premature mortality for future decades are projected to decrease below the present day estimate of premature mortality as GDP is projected to increase in all the 5 SSP scenarios. We further separate the effect of future meteorology, epidemiological changes and demographic changes in future on projected premature mortality. This study can help in the government in developing policies for future in order to avert the projected mortality and follow all the requirements that the best case scenario deserves in order to mitigate the effect of PM2.5 on mortality.

Impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions for climate change: a path analysis with mediating effects of attitudinal variables.

PubMed

Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Akhatr, Rulia; Nasrin, Shamima; Adamu, Ibrahim Mohammed

2017-12-01

Socio-demographic factors play a significant role in increasing the individual's climate change awareness and in setting a favorable individual attitude towards its mitigation. To better understand how the adversative effects of climate change can be mitigated, this study attempts to investigate the impact of socio-demographic factors on the mitigating actions of the individuals (MAOI) on climate change. Qualitative data were collected from a face-to-face survey of 360 respondents in the Kuala Lumpur region of Malaysia through a close-ended questionnaire. Analysis was conducted on the mediating effects of attitudinal variables through the path model by using the SEM. Findings indicate that the socio-demographic factors such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity can greatly influence the individual's awareness, attitude, risk perception, and knowledge of climate change issues. The results drawn from this study also revealed that the attitudinal factors act as a mediating effect between the socio-demographic factors and the MAOI, thereby, indicating that both the socio-demographic factors and the attitudinal factors have significant effects on the MAOI towards climate change. The outcome of this study can help policy makers and other private organizations to decide on the appropriate actions to take in managing climate change effects. These actions which encompass improving basic climate change education and making the public more aware of the local dimensions of climate change are important for harnessing public engagement and support that can also stimulate climate change awareness and promote mitigating actions to n protect the environment from the impact of climate change.

The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

2014-03-01

This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

Buildings: Mitigation Opportunities with a Focus on Health Implications

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge Addressing building energy use is the critical first step in any strategic plan for mitigating climate change. Buildings have a direct impact on estimated global climate change due to their large carbon ...

Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

PubMed Central

Holmner, Åsa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

2012-01-01

Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT)’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies. PMID:22679398

Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Holmner, Asa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

2012-01-01

Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on 'green information and communication technology (ICT)' are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE PAGES

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; ...

2015-10-28

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

Mitigating cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in aquatic ecosystems impacted by climate change and anthropogenic nutrients.

PubMed

Paerl, Hans W; Gardner, Wayne S; Havens, Karl E; Joyner, Alan R; McCarthy, Mark J; Newell, Silvia E; Qin, Boqiang; Scott, J Thad

2016-04-01

Mitigating the global expansion of cyanobacterial harmful blooms (CyanoHABs) is a major challenge facing researchers and resource managers. A variety of traditional (e.g., nutrient load reduction) and experimental (e.g., artificial mixing and flushing, omnivorous fish removal) approaches have been used to reduce bloom occurrences. Managers now face the additional effects of climate change on watershed hydrologic and nutrient loading dynamics, lake and estuary temperature, mixing regime, internal nutrient dynamics, and other factors. Those changes favor CyanoHABs over other phytoplankton and could influence the efficacy of control measures. Virtually all mitigation strategies are influenced by climate changes, which may require setting new nutrient input reduction targets and establishing nutrient-bloom thresholds for impacted waters. Physical-forcing mitigation techniques, such as flushing and artificial mixing, will need adjustments to deal with the ramifications of climate change. Here, we examine the suite of current mitigation strategies and the potential options for adapting and optimizing them in a world facing increasing human population pressure and climate change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

Mitigation and adaptation within a climate change policy portfolio: A research program

EPA Science Inventory

It is now recognized that optimal global climate policy is a portfolio of the two key responses for reducing the risks of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Significant differences between the two responses have inhibited understanding of how to appropriately view these...

Bird response to future climate and forest management focused on mitigating climate change

Treesearch

Jaymi J. LeBrun; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2016-01-01

Context. Global temperatures are projected to increase and affect forests and wildlife populations. Forest management can potentially mitigate climateinduced changes through promoting carbon sequestration, forest resilience, and facilitated change. Objectives. We modeled direct and indirect effects of climate change on avian...

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes.

PubMed

Thomson, Allison M; Calvin, Katherine V; Chini, Louise P; Hurtt, George; Edmonds, James A; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Frolking, Steve; Wise, Marshall A; Janetos, Anthony C

2010-11-16

Land-use change to meet 21st-century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will depend on many interactive factors, including global policies limiting anthropogenic climate change and realized improvements in agricultural productivity. Climate-change mitigation policies will alter the decision-making environment for land management, and changes in agricultural productivity will influence cultivated land expansion. We explore to what extent future increases in agricultural productivity might offset conversion of tropical forest lands to crop lands under a climate mitigation policy and a contrasting no-policy scenario in a global integrated assessment model. The Global Change Assessment Model is applied here to simulate a mitigation policy that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5 W m(-2) (approximately 526 ppm CO(2)) in the year 2100 by introducing a price for all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use. These scenarios are simulated with several cases of future agricultural productivity growth rates and the results downscaled to produce gridded maps of potential land-use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved near their present-day extent, and bioenergy crops emerge as an effective mitigation option, only in cases in which a climate mitigation policy that includes an economic price for land-use emissions is in place, and in which agricultural productivity growth continues throughout the century. We find that idealized land-use emissions price assumptions are most effective at limiting deforestation, even when cropland area must increase to meet future food demand. These findings emphasize the importance of accounting for feedbacks from land-use change emissions in global climate change mitigation strategies.

Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, Batool

2016-10-01

Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Conserving intertidal habitats: What is the potential of ecological engineering to mitigate impacts of coastal structures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, Matthew J.; Ng, Terence P. T.; Dudgeon, David; Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Leung, Kenneth M. Y.

2015-12-01

Globally, coastlines are under pressure as coastal human population growth and urbanization continues, while climatic change leads to stormier seas and rising tides. These trends create a strong and sustained demand for land reclamation and infrastructure protection in coastal areas, requiring engineered coastal defence structures such as sea walls. Here, we review the nature of ecological impacts of coastal structures on intertidal ecosystems, seek to understand the extent to which ecological engineering can mitigate these impacts, and evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation as a tool to contribute to conservation of intertidal habitats. By so doing, we identify critical knowledge gaps to inform future research. Coastal structures alter important physical, chemical and biological processes of intertidal habitats, and strongly impact community structure, inter-habitat linkages and ecosystem services while also driving habitat loss. Such impacts occur diffusely across localised sites but scale to significant regional and global levels. Recent advances in ecological engineering have focused on developing habitat complexity on coastal structures to increase biodiversity. 'Soft' engineering options maximise habitat complexity through inclusion of natural materials, species and processes, while simultaneously delivering engineering objectives such as coastal protection. Soft options additionally sustain multiple services, providing greater economic benefits for society, and resilience to climatic change. Currently however, a lack of inclusion and economic undervaluation of intertidal ecosystem services may undermine best practice in coastline management. Importantly, reviewed evidence shows mitigation and even restoration do not support intertidal communities or processes equivalent to pre-disturbance conditions. Crucially, an absence of comprehensive empirical baseline biodiversity data, or data comprising additional ecological parameters such as ecosystem functions and services, prohibits quantification of absolute and relative magnitudes of ecological impacts due to coastal structures or effectiveness of mitigation interventions. This knowledge deficit restricts evaluation of the potential of ecological engineering to contribute to conservation policies for intertidal habitats. To improve mitigation design and effectiveness, a greater focus on in-situ research is needed, requiring stronger and timely collaboration between government agencies, construction partners and research scientists.

75 FR 63147 - Solicitation of Applications for the Public Works, Economic Adjustment Assistance, and Global...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-14

...] Solicitation of Applications for the Public Works, Economic Adjustment Assistance, and Global Climate Change... Program; and (iii) Global Climate Change Mitigation Incentive Fund (GCCMIF) Program. To enhance the...; and (iii) Global Climate Change Mitigation Incentive Fund (GCCMIF) Program. EDA will publish separate...

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

Carbon dynamics and land-use choices: building a regional-scale multidisciplinary model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kerr, Suzi; Liu, Shu-Guang; Pfaff, Alexander S.P.; Hughes, R. Flint

2003-01-01

Policy enabling tropical forests to approach their potential contribution to global-climate-change mitigation requires forecasts of land use and carbon storage on a large scale over long periods. In this paper, we present an integrated modeling methodology that addresses these needs. We model the dynamics of the human land-use system and of C pools contained in each ecosystem, as well as their interactions. The model is national scale, and is currently applied in a preliminary way to Costa Rica using data spanning a period of over 50 years. It combines an ecological process model, parameterized using field and other data, with an economic model, estimated using historical data to ensure a close link to actual behavior. These two models are linked so that ecological conditions affect land-use choices and vice versa. The integrated model predicts land use and its consequences for C storage for policy scenarios. These predictions can be used to create baselines, reward sequestration, and estimate the value in both environmental and economic terms of including C sequestration in tropical forests as part of the efforts to mitigate global climate change. The model can also be used to assess the benefits from costly activities to increase accuracy and thus reduce errors and their societal costs.

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

PubMed Central

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Delayed detection of climate mitigation benefits due to climate inertia and variability.

PubMed

Tebaldi, Claudia; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2013-10-22

Climate change mitigation acts by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and thus curbing, or even reversing, the increase in their atmospheric concentration. This reduces the associated anthropogenic radiative forcing, and hence the size of the warming. Because of the inertia and internal variability affecting the climate system and the global carbon cycle, it is unlikely that a reduction in warming would be immediately discernible. Here we use 21st century simulations from the latest ensemble of Earth System Model experiments to investigate and quantify when mitigation becomes clearly discernible. We use one of the scenarios as a reference for a strong mitigation strategy, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and compare its outcome with either RCP4.5 or RCP8.5, both of which are less severe mitigation pathways. We analyze global mean atmospheric CO2, and changes in annually and seasonally averaged surface temperature at global and regional scales. For global mean surface temperature, the median detection time of mitigation is about 25-30 y after RCP2.6 emissions depart from the higher emission trajectories. This translates into detection of a mitigation signal by 2035 or 2045, depending on whether the comparison is with RCP8.5 or RCP4.5, respectively. The detection of climate benefits of emission mitigation occurs later at regional scales, with a median detection time between 30 and 45 y after emission paths separate. Requiring a 95% confidence level induces a delay of several decades, bringing detection time toward the end of the 21st century.

Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias

2017-11-01

In order to assess future sea level rise and its societal impacts, we need to study climate change pathways combined with different scenarios of socioeconomic development. Here, we present sea level rise (SLR) projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) storylines and different year-2100 radiative forcing targets (FTs). Future SLR is estimated with a comprehensive SLR emulator that accounts for Antarctic rapid discharge from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. Across all baseline scenario realizations (no dedicated climate mitigation), we find 2100 median SLR relative to 1986-2005 of 89 cm (likely range: 57-130 cm) for SSP1, 105 cm (73-150 cm) for SSP2, 105 cm (75-147 cm) for SSP3, 93 cm (63-133 cm) for SSP4, and 132 cm (95-189 cm) for SSP5. The 2100 sea level responses for combined SSP-FT scenarios are dominated by the mitigation targets and yield median estimates of 52 cm (34-75 cm) for FT 2.6 Wm-2, 62 cm (40-96 cm) for FT 3.4 Wm-2, 75 cm (47-113 cm) for FT 4.5 Wm-2, and 91 cm (61-132 cm) for FT 6.0 Wm-2. Average 2081-2100 annual SLR rates are 5 mm yr-1 and 19 mm yr-1 for FT 2.6 Wm-2 and the baseline scenarios, respectively. Our model setup allows linking scenario-specific emission and socioeconomic indicators to projected SLR. We find that 2100 median SSP SLR projections could be limited to around 50 cm if 2050 cumulative CO2 emissions since pre-industrial stay below 850 GtC, with a global coal phase-out nearly completed by that time. For SSP mitigation scenarios, a 2050 carbon price of 100 US2005 tCO2 -1 would correspond to a median 2100 SLR of around 65 cm. Our results confirm that rapid and early emission reductions are essential for limiting 2100 SLR.

Strong biotic influences on regional patterns of climate regulation services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serna-Chavez, H. M.; Swenson, N. G.; Weiser, M. D.; van Loon, E. E.; Bouten, W.; Davidson, M. D.; van Bodegom, P. M.

2017-05-01

Climate regulation services from forests are an important leverage in global-change mitigation treaties. Like most ecosystem services, climate regulation is the product of various ecological phenomena with unique spatial features. Elucidating which abiotic and biotic factors relate to spatial patterns of climate regulation services advances our understanding of what underlies climate-mitigation potential and its variation within and across ecosystems. Here we quantify and contrast the statistical relations between climate regulation services (albedo and evapotranspiration, primary productivity, and soil carbon) and abiotic and biotic factors. We focus on 16,955 forest plots in a regional extent across the eastern United States. We find the statistical effects of forest litter and understory carbon on climate regulation services to be as strong as those of temperature-precipitation interactions. These biotic factors likely influence climate regulation through changes in vegetation and canopy density, radiance scattering, and decomposition rates. We also find a moderate relation between leaf nitrogen traits and primary productivity at this regional scale. The statistical relation between climate regulation and temperature-precipitation ranges, seasonality, and climatic thresholds highlights a strong feedback with global climate change. Our assessment suggests the expression of strong biotic influences on climate regulation services at a regional, temperate extent. Biotic homogenization and management practices manipulating forest structure and succession will likely strongly impact climate-mitigation potential. The identity, strength, and direction of primary influences differed for each process involved in climate regulation. Hence, different abiotic and biotic factors are needed to monitor and quantify the full climate-mitigation potential of temperate forest ecosystems.

Impact of future climate change on wheat production in relation to plant-available water capacity in a semiaridenvironment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yanmin; Liu, De Li; Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; Zuo, Heping; Yang, Yonghui

2014-02-01

Conceptions encompassing climate change are irreversible rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, increased temperature, and changes in rainfall both in spatial- and temporal-scales worldwide. This will have a major impact on wheat production, particularly if crops are frequently exposed to a sequence, frequency, and intensity of specific weather events like high temperature during growth period. However, the process of wheat response to climate change is complex and compounded by interactions among atmospheric CO2 concentration, climate variables, soil, nutrition, and agronomic management. In this study, we use the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM)-wheat model, driven by statistically downscaled climate projections of 18 global circulation models (GCMs) under the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 CO2 emission scenario to examine impact on future wheat yields across key wheat growing regions considering different soil types in New South Wales (NSW) of Australia. The response of wheat yield, yield components, and phenology vary across sites and soil types, but yield is closely related to plant available water capacity (PAWC). Results show a decreasing yield trend during the period of 2021-2040 compared to the baseline period of 1961-1990. Across different wheat-growing regions in NSW, grain yield difference in the future period (2021-2040) over the baseline (1961-1990) varies from +3.4 to -14.7 %, and in most sites, grain number is decreased, while grain size is increased in future climate. Reduction of wheat yield is mainly due to shorter growth duration, where average flowering and maturing time are advanced by an average of 11 and 12 days, respectively. In general, larger negative impacts of climate change are exhibited in those sites with higher PAWC. Current wheat cultivars with shorter growing season properties are viable in the future climate, but breading for early sowing wheat varieties with longer growing duration will be a desirable adaptation strategy for mitigating the impact of changing climate on wheat yield.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-04-01

As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further proposals for mechanisms of financing suggested a role of causation and thus attribution of L&D to (anthropogenic) climate change. Yet, causation mechanisms are particularly delicate in terms of climate justice, development and implications of legal liabilities. Here, we outline potential contributions of science to L&D mechanisms in greater specificity, in particular for (i) threshold based mechanisms, and (ii) causation related mechanisms. We draw on recent concepts of L&D attribution suggesting a more comprehensive attribution framework based on risk concepts. We present a first-order proof-of-concept for the above mechanisms (i) and (ii), using case studies of recent disasters (both related to extreme events and gradual climate change) in the Indian Himalayas, Colombia, Alaska and Australia. We analyze whether science is in a position to substantially contribute to the different L&D policy proposals, including the question whether currently available data and datasets on climate and hazards, exposure and vulnerability are in line with such support, in particular with regards to developing country contexts. We conclude with a perspective on critical research and data needs to further strengthen L&D science and policy.

Substituting HCFC-22 for HFC-410A: an environmental impact trade-off between the ozone depletion and climate change regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Z.; Fang, X.; Zhang, J.

2015-12-01

After the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as ozone-depleting substances pursuant to the requirements of the Montreal Protocol, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are worldwide used as substitutes although the bulk of them are potent greenhouse gases (GHGs). Therefore, the alternation may bring side effect on global climate change. The trade-off of its environmental impacts between the ozone depletion and climate change regimes necessitates a quantification of the past and future consumption and emissions of both the original HCFCs and their alternative HFCs. Now a dilemma arise in China's RAC industry that HCFC-22, which has an ozone-depleting potential (ODP) of 0.055, has been replaced by HFC-410A, which is a blended potent GHG from respective 50% HFC-32 and HFC-125 with a global warming potential (GWP) of 1923.5. Here, we present our results of estimates of consumption and emissions of HCFC-22 and HFC-410A from 1994 to 2050. Historic emissions of HCFC-22 contributed to global total HCFCs by 4.0% (3.0%-5.6%) ODP-weighted. Projection under a baseline scenario shows future accumulative emissions of HFC-410A make up 5.9%-11.0% of global GWP-weighted HFCs emissions, and its annual contribution to national overall CO2 emissions can be 5.5% in 2050. This makes HCFC-22 and HFC-410A emissions of significant importance in ozone depletion and climate change regimes. Two mitigation scenarios were set to assess the mitigation performance under the North America Proposal and an accelerated schedule. In practice of international environmental agreement, "alternative to alternative" should be developed to avoid regrettable alternations.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate.

The Roadmap to Climate Stability Based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Climate Accounting Protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.

2016-12-01

The Climate Stabilization Council recognizes the severe impact consequences of a rapidly warming climate and the challenging mitigation requirements of reaching the COP21 aspirational goal of +1.5°C. To address this challenge, we have used the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report which presents new methods for projecting increases in average global temperature and new metrics to update global climate accounting protocols. The updated protocols allow us to assess the full spectrum of climate mitigation projects available and identify the ability of specific projects to achieve various climate warming targets at different points in time. This assessment demonstrates the need to continue focusing on reducing and removing the major sources of overall excess heat linked to CO2, methane, black carbon, and tropospheric ozone. These findings also highlight the importance of solar radiation management (SRM) and earth radiation management (ERM) to achieve climate stabilization in the near-term. By integrating advanced life-cycle assessment (LCA) into the protocols, unintended environmental or human health impact trade-offs that may be associated with deployment of specific mitigation options can be identified. These protocols have also been introduced for standardization to the international ISO 14000 process. We conclude by describing the Climate Stabilization Council's role in establishing a platform for the scientific research, evaluation, and implementation of the identified climate mitigation projects.

Global Gathering Addresses PV Role in Energy Prosperity and Climate Change

Science.gov Websites

Mitigation | News | NREL Global Gathering Addresses PV Role in Energy Prosperity and Climate Change Mitigation News Release: Global Gathering Addresses PV Role in Energy Prosperity and Climate Laboratory (NREL), along with their counterparts from solar energy research institutes in Germany and Japan

Climate-Change Science and Policy: What Do We Know? What Should We Do

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-06

These briefing charts discuss climate change science and policy including: the essence of the challenge, five myths and their refutations, climate ... change risks and impact going forward, available options, how much mitigation, how soon?, mitigation supply curve and its implications, and the Obama Administration’s strategy.

Household preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries: Does health information matter? A mixed-methods study protocol.

PubMed

Herrmann, Alina; Fischer, Helen; Amelung, Dorothee; Litvine, Dorian; Aall, Carlo; Andersson, Camilla; Baltruszewicz, Marta; Barbier, Carine; Bruyère, Sébastien; Bénévise, Françoise; Dubois, Ghislain; Louis, Valérie R; Nilsson, Maria; Richardsen Moberg, Karen; Sköld, Bore; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-01

It is now universally acknowledged that climate change constitutes a major threat to human health. At the same time, some of the measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so-called climate change mitigation measures, have significant health co-benefits (e.g., walking or cycling more; eating less meat). The goal of limiting global warming to 1,5° Celsius set by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Paris in 2015 can only be reached if all stakeholders, including households, take actions to mitigate climate change. Results on whether framing mitigation measures in terms of their health co-benefits increases the likelihood of their implementation are inconsistent. The present study protocol describes the transdisciplinary project HOPE (HOuseholds' Preferences for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in four European high-income countries) that investigates the role of health co-benefits in households' decision making on climate change mitigation measures in urban households in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. HOPE employs a mixed-methods approach combining status-quo carbon footprint assessments, simulations of the reduction of households' carbon footprints, and qualitative in-depth interviews with a subgroup of households. Furthermore, a policy analysis of current household oriented climate policies is conducted. In the simulation of the reduction of households' carbon footprints, half of the households are provided with information on health co-benefits of climate change mitigation measures, the other half is not. Households' willingness to implement the measures is assessed and compared in between-group analyses of variance. This is one of the first comprehensive mixed-methods approaches to investigate which mitigation measures households are most willing to implement in order to reach the 1,5° target set by the Paris Agreement, and whether health co-benefits can serve as a motivator for households to implement these measures. The comparison of the empirical data with current climate policies will provide knowledge for tailoring effective climate change mitigation and health policies.

The potential of exceptional climate change education on individual lifetime carbon emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero, E.; Centeno, D.; Todd, A. M.

2016-12-01

Strategies to mitigate climate change often center on clean technologies such as electric vehicles and solar panels, while the mitigation potential of a quality educational experience is rarely discussed. We investigate the role of education on individual carbon emissions using case studies from an intensive one-year university general education course focused on climate science and solutions. Results from this analysis demonstrate that students who completed the university course had significantly lower carbon emissions compared to a control group. If such an educational experience could be expanded throughout the United States, we estimate that education could be as valuable a climate change mitigation method as improving the fuel efficiency of automobiles. Relatedly, we also report on a new approach to apply real-time cloud based data to track the environmental impact of students during their participation in educational climate change programs. Such a tool would help illustrate the potential of education as a viable carbon mitigation strategy.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-01

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model - Storm Water Management Model - was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020-2040 compared to the volume in 1971-2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. This study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2018-01-15

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Qianqian; Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

As China becomes increasingly urbanised, flooding has become a regular occurrence in its major cities. Assessing the effects of future climate change on urban flood volumes is crucial to informing better management of such disasters given the severity of the devastating impacts of flooding (e.g. the 2016 flooding events across China). Although recent studies have investigated the impacts of future climate change on urban flooding, the effects of both climate change mitigation and adaptation have rarely been accounted for together in a consistent framework. In this study, we assess the benefits of mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG)more » emissions and locally adapting to climate change by modifying drainage systems to reduce urban flooding under various climate change scenarios through a case study conducted in northern China. The urban drainage model – Storm Water Management Model – was used to simulate urban flood volumes using current and two adapted drainage systems (i.e. pipe enlargement and low-impact development, LID), driven by bias-corrected meteorological forcing from five general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive. Results indicate that urban flood volume is projected to increase by 52 % over 2020–2040 compared to the volume in 1971–2000 under the business-as-usual scenario (i.e. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). The magnitudes of urban flood volumes are found to increase nonlinearly with changes in precipitation intensity. On average, the projected flood volume under RCP 2.6 is 13 % less than that under RCP 8.5, demonstrating the benefits of global-scale climate change mitigation efforts in reducing local urban flood volumes. Comparison of reduced flood volumes between climate change mitigation and local adaptation (by improving drainage systems) scenarios suggests that local adaptation is more effective than climate change mitigation in reducing future flood volumes. This has broad implications for the research community relative to drainage system design and modelling in a changing environment. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for local adaptation when coping with future urban floods.« less

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; Wein, Anne; McCarl, Bruce

2015-01-01

We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

Simulated responses of soil organic carbon stock to tillage management scenarios in the Northwest Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Li, Z.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

Background: Tillage practices greatly affect carbon (C) stocks in agricultural soils. Quantification of the impacts of tillage on C stocks at a regional scale has been challenging because of the spatial heterogeneity of soil, climate, and management conditions. We evaluated the effects of tillage management on the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) in croplands of the Northwest Great Plains ecoregion of the United States using the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS). Tillage management scenarios included actual tillage management (ATM), conventional tillage (CT), and no-till (NT). Results: Model simulations show that the average amount of C (kg C ha-1yr-1) released from croplands between 1972 and 2000 was 246 with ATM, 261 with CT, and 210 with NT. The reduction in the rate of C emissions with conversion of CT to NT at the ecoregion scale is much smaller than those reported at plot scale and simulated for other regions. Results indicate that the response of SOC to tillage practices depends significantly on baseline SOC levels: the conversion of CT to NT had less influence on SOC stocks in soils having lower baseline SOC levels but would lead to higher potentials to mitigate C release from soils having higher baseline SOC levels. Conclusion: For assessing the potential of agricultural soils to mitigate C emissions with conservation tillage practices, it is critical to consider both the crop rotations being used at a local scale and the composition of all cropping systems at a regional scale. ?? 2007 Tan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

The Dragons of Inaction: Psychological Barriers That Limit Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gifford, Robert

2011-01-01

Most people think climate change and sustainability are important problems, but too few global citizens engaged in high-greenhouse-gas-emitting behavior are engaged in enough mitigating behavior to stem the increasing flow of greenhouse gases and other environmental problems. Why is that? Structural barriers such as a climate-averse infrastructure…

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeramony, J.

2016-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.

Carbon Sequestration in Colorado's Lands: A Spatial and Policy Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, N.; Brazeau, A.; Browning, K.; Meier, R.

2017-12-01

Managing landscapes to enhance terrestrial carbon sequestration has significant potential to mitigate climate change. While a previous carbon baseline assessment in Colorado has been published (Conant et al, 2007), our study pulls from the existing literature to conduct an updated baseline assessment of carbon stocks and a unique review of carbon policies in Colorado. Through a multi-level spatial analysis based in GIS and informed by a literature review, we established a carbon stock baseline and ran four land use and carbon stock projection scenarios using Monte Carlo simulations. We identified 11 key policy recommendations for improving Colorado's carbon stocks, and evaluated each using Bardach's policy matrix approach (Bardach, 2012). We utilized a series of case studies to support our policy recommendations. We found that Colorado's lands have a carbon stock of 3,334 MMT CO2eq, with Forests and Woodlands holding the largest stocks, at 1,490 and 774 MMT CO2eq respectively. Avoided conversion of all Grasslands, Forests, and Wetlands in Colorado projected over 40 years would increase carbon stocks by 32 MMT CO2eq, 1,053 MMT CO2eq, and 36 MMT CO2eq, respectively. Over the 40-year study period, Forests and Woodlands areas are projected to shrink while Shrublands and Developed areas are projected to grow. Those projections suggest sizable increases in area of future wildfires and development in Colorado. We found that numerous policy opportunities to sequester carbon exist at different jurisdictional levels and across land cover types. The largest opportunities were found in state-level policies and policies impacting Forests, Grasslands, and Wetlands. The passage of statewide emission reduction legislation has the highest potential to impact carbon sequestration, although political and administrative feasibility of this option are relatively low. This study contributes to the broader field of carbon sequestration literature by examining the nexus of carbon stocks and policy at the state level, and serves as a model for future research on the role of terrestrial carbon stocks in climate change mitigation.

Climate change mitigation effect of harvested wood products in regions of Japan.

PubMed

Kayo, Chihiro; Tsunetsugu, Yuko; Tonosaki, Mario

2015-12-01

Harvested wood products (HWPs) mitigate climate change through carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution. We construct a model to assess the overall climate change mitigation effect (comprising the carbon storage, material substitution, and energy substitution effects) resulting from HWPs in regions of Japan. The model allows for projections to 2050 based on future scenarios relating to the domestic forestry industry, HWP use, and energy use. Using the production approach, a nationwide maximum figure of 2.9 MtC year -1 for the HWP carbon storage effect is determined for 2030. The maximum nationwide material substitution effect is 2.9 MtC year -1 in 2050. For the energy substitution effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 4.3 MtC year -1 in 2050 is established, with at least 50 % of this figure derived from east and west Japan, where a large volume of logging residue is generated. For the overall climate change mitigation effect, a nationwide maximum projection of 8.4 MtC year -1 in 2050 is established, equivalent to 2.4 % of Japan's current carbon dioxide emissions. When domestic roundwood production and HWP usage is promoted, an overall climate change mitigation effect is consistently expected to be attributable to HWPs until 2050. A significant factor in obtaining the material substitution effect will be substituting non-wooden buildings with wooden ones. The policy of promoting the use of logging residue will have a significant impact on the energy substitution effect. An important future study is an integrated investigation of the climate change mitigation effect for both HWPs and forests.

The economics of abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Perrings, Charles

2003-09-15

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Transportation Energy Security and Climate Change Mitigation Act of 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-29

The Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, to whom was referred the bill (H.R. 2701) to strengthen our Nations energy security and mitigate the effects of climate change by promoting energy efficient transportation and public buildings, c...

Evaluating the Contribution of Soil Carbon to Global Climate Change Mitigation in an Integrated Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Clarke, L. E.

2006-12-01

Assessing the contribution of terrestrial carbon sequestration to national and international climate change mitigation requires integration across scientific and disciplinary boundaries. In a study for the US Climate Change Technology Program, site based measurements and geographic data were used to develop a three- pool, first-order kinetic model of global agricultural soil carbon (C) stock changes over 14 continental scale regions. This model was then used together with land use scenarios from the MiniCAM integrated assessment model in a global analysis of climate change mitigation options. MiniCAM evaluated mitigation strategies within a set of policy environments aimed at achieving atmospheric CO2 stabilization by 2100 under a suite of technology and development scenarios. Adoption of terrestrial sequestration practices is based on competition for land and economic markets for carbon. In the reference case with no climate policy, conversion of agricultural land from conventional cultivation to no tillage over the next century in the United States results in C sequestration of 7.6 to 59.8 Tg C yr-1, which doubles to 19.0 to 143.4 Tg C yr-1 under the most aggressive climate policy. Globally, with no carbon policy, agricultural C sequestration rates range from 75.2 to 18.2 Tg C yr-1 over the century, with the highest rates occurring in the first fifty years. Under the most aggressive global climate change policy, sequestration in agricultural soils reaches up to 190 Tg C yr-1 in the first 15 years. The contribution of agricultural soil C sequestration is a small fraction of the total global carbon offsets necessary to reach the stabilization targets (9 to 20 Gt C yr-1) by the end of the century. This integrated assessment provides decision makers with science-based estimates of the potential magnitude of terrestrial C sequestration relative to other greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in all sectors of the global economy. It also provides insight into the behavior of terrestrial C mitigation options in the presence and absence of climate change mitigation policies.

Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason

2017-04-01

Large differences in climate outcomes are projected by the end of this century depending on whether greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase or are reduced sufficiently to limit total warming to below 2 °C (ref. ). However, it is generally thought that benefits of mitigation are hidden by internal climate variability until later in the century. Here we show that if the likelihood of extremely hot seasons is considered, the benefits of mitigation emerge more quickly than previously thought. It takes less than 20 years of emissions reductions in many regions for the likelihood of extreme seasonal warmth to reduce by more than half following initiation of mitigation. Additionally we show that the latest possible date at which the probability of extreme seasonal temperatures will be halved through emissions reductions consistent with the 2 °C target is in the 2040s. Exposure to climate risk is therefore reduced markedly and rapidly with substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrating that the early mitigation needed to limit eventual warming below potentially dangerous levels benefits societies in the nearer term not just in the longer-term future.

The hydrometeorological implications of zoning laws: Can land use regulations of urban density and sprawl improve a city's resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bou-Zeid, E.; Ryu, Y. H.; Smith, J. A.; Newburn, D. A.

2015-12-01

The intensification of heat waves and of the hydrological cycle due to global climate change pose particularly high risks to urban residents. Cities are already hotter than their surroundings due to the urban heat island effect and are known to result in local intensification of rainfall and flooding due to their coupled impacts on the surface and the lower atmosphere. These interacting local and global changes can adversely affect the health and well being of urban residents, and city administrators are increasing efforts to mitigate and adapt to the potential disruptions though various infrastructure and preparedness programs. However, as cities worldwide continue to expand, a key decision is how to manage that urban sprawl and regulate its spatial features to aid in the mitigation and adaptation effort. This study assesses whether alternative zoning regulations that modify the density and extent of a metropolitan region, but have a minimal impact on total population and demographic growth, have an appreciable impact on its response to extreme weather events, and as such, whether they can be used to increase urban resilience. We consider Baltimore (the city and its surrounding suburbs), which in 1967 adopted one of the first urban growth boundaries (UGBs) in the United States, as our test case. Departing from the urban extent circa 1900, we create alternative land use patterns that, compared to the actual current land use baseline, would have resulted from drastically different policy scenarios and approaches to zoning that the city would have undertaken. We consider various alternatives where the city is smaller and denser, due to stricter regulation, versus larger and less dense than the actual baseline, while maintaining the same total population. Our findings indicate that lower densities have significant benefits: compared to the current landscape and to denser patterns, they reduce both extreme temperatures during heat waves and spatio-temporal rainfall peaks. While the particular findings hold for Baltimore and many cities with comparable climates, the conclusion that zoning laws and the resulting spatial patterns for urban density have important implications on a city's response to changing climate and extreme weather are more broadly applicable.

Evaluation of additional biogeochemical impacts on mitigation pathways in an energy sytem integrated assessment model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessens, O.

2017-12-01

Within the last IPCC AR5 a large and systematic sensitivity study around available technologies and timing of policies applied in IAMs to achieve the 2°C target has been conducted. However the simple climate representations included in IAMs are generally tuned to the results of ensemble means. This may result in hiding within the ensemble mean results possible challenging mitigation pathways for the economy or the technology future scenarios. This work provides new insights on the sensitivity of the socio-economic response to different climate factors under a 2°C climate change target in order to help guide future efforts to reduce uncertainty in the climate mitigation decisions. The main objective is to understand and bring new insights on how future global warming will affect the natural biochemical feedbacks on the climate system and what could be the consequences of these feedbacks on the anthropogenic emission pathways with a specific focus on the energy-economy system. It specifically focuses on three issues of the climate representation affecting the energy system transformation and GHG emissions pathways: 1- Impacts of the climate sensitivity (or TCR); 2- Impacts of warming on the radiative forcing (cloudiness,...); 3- Impacts of warming on the carbon cycle (carbon cycle feedback). We use the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL to examine the mitigation pathways compatible with the 2C target depending on assumptions regarding the 3 issues of the climate representation introduced above. The following key conclusions drawn from this study are that mitigation to 2°C is still possible under strong climate sensitivity (TCR), strong carbon cycle amplification or positive radiative forcing feedback. However, this level of climate mitigation will require a significant transformation in the way we produce and consume energy. Carbon capture and sequestration on electricity generation, industry and biomass is part of the technology pool needed to achieve this level of decarbonisation. In extreme condition (positive correlation between the 3 issues discussed) the integrated assessment model TIAM-UCL creates pathways requiring additional negative emission technologies at the end of this century to keep temperature change well below 2°C.

The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

PubMed Central

Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

PubMed

Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

2014-01-01

Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts.

Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

PubMed

Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

2013-06-01

The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Karoly, David; Wiseman, John

2016-01-01

Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies. PMID:27657098

The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Karoly, David; Wiseman, John

2016-09-20

Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies.

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.

PubMed

Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E

2015-07-07

We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.

Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets.

Treesearch

Brent Sohngen; Ralph Alig

2000-01-01

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the...

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

Mind the gap in SEA: An institutional perspective on why assessment of synergies amongst climate change mitigation, adaptation and other policy areas are missing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vammen Larsen, Sanne, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk; Kornov, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk; Wejs, Anja, E-mail: wejs@plan.aau.dk

2012-02-15

This article takes its point of departure in two approaches to integrating climate change into Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA): Mitigation and adaptation, and in the fact that these, as well as the synergies between them and other policy areas, are needed as part of an integrated assessment and policy response. First, the article makes a review of how positive and negative synergies between a) climate change mitigation and adaptation and b) climate change and other environmental concerns are integrated into Danish SEA practice. Then, the article discusses the implications of not addressing synergies. Finally, the article explores institutional explanations asmore » to why synergies are not addressed in SEA practice. A document analysis of 149 Danish SEA reports shows that only one report comprises the assessment of synergies between mitigation and adaptation, whilst 9,4% of the reports assess the synergies between climate change and other environmental concerns. The consequences of separation are both the risk of trade-offs and missed opportunities for enhancing positive synergies. In order to propose explanations for the lacking integration, the institutional background is analysed and discussed, mainly based on Scott's theory of institutions. The institutional analysis highlights a regulatory element, since the assessment of climate change synergies is underpinned by legislation, but not by guidance. This means that great focus is on normative elements such as the local interpretation of legislation and of climate change mitigation and adaptation. The analysis also focuses on how the fragmentation of the organisation in which climate change and SEA are embedded has bearings on both normative and cultural-cognitive elements. This makes the assessment of synergies challenging. The evidence gathered and presented in the article points to a need for developing the SEA process and methodology in Denmark with the aim to include climate change in the assessments in a more systematic and integrated manner. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Synergies between climate change mitigation, adaptation and other environmental concerns are not addressed in Danish SEA. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Institutional explanations relate to organisational set-ups and understandings of climate change as a new planning issue. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper points to a need for developing SEA to include climate change in a more systematic and integrated manner.« less

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Impact of Real-world Factors Influencing Investment Decisions on the Costs and Distribution of Climate Change Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.; Iyer, G.; McJeon, H. C.; Leon, C.; Hultman, N.

2015-12-01

Strategies to mitigate dangerous anthropogenic climate change require a dramatic transformation of the energy system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that in turn requires large-scale investments. Investment decisions depend not only on investment capital availability but also on investment risks. A number of factors such as national policy environments, quality of public and private institutions, sector, firm and technology specific characteristics can affect investors' assessments of risks, leading to a wide variation in the business climate for investment. Such heterogeneity in investment risks can have important implications, as investors usually respond to risks by requiring higher returns for riskier projects; delaying or forgoing the investments; or preferring to invest in existing, familiar projects. We study the impact of variation in investment risks on regional patterns of emissions mitigation, the cost of emissions mitigation and patterns of technology deployment. We modify an integrated assessment model, widely used in global climate policy analyses (the Global Change Assessment Model) and incorporate decisions on investments based on risks along two dimensions. Along the first dimension, we vary perceived risks associated with particular technologies. To do so, we assign a higher cost of capital for investment in low-carbon technologies as these involve intrinsically higher levels of regulatory and market risk. The second dimension uses a proxy to vary investment risks across regions, based on an institutional quality metric published by the World Economic Forum. Explicit representation of investment risks has two major effects. First, it raises the cost of emissions mitigation relative to a world with uniform investment risks. Second, it shifts the pattern of emissions mitigation, with industrialized countries mitigating more, and developing countries mitigating less. Our results suggest that institutional reforms aimed at lowering investment risks could be an important element in lowering the cost of climate change mitigation solutions.

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here, we discuss the most recent advances on the application of soil mapping and modeling to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies; and These strategies are a key component of the implementation of sustainable land management policies need to be integrated are critical to. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Pereira, P., Brevic, E., Cerda, A., Jordan, A. (2017) Soil mapping and processes models for sustainable land management applied to modern challenges. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

Survey data reflecting popular opinions of the causes and mitigation of climate change.

PubMed

Thompson, Jonathan E

2017-10-01

The data presented within this manuscript reports the results of a 20-question opinion survey concerning popular beliefs regarding the causes of and possible mitigation of climate change. The results and opinions from 746 survey respondents are presented. The data reflects certain misconceptions of climate change, and is useful for investigators to begin forming opinions of the public's knowledge regarding the potentially inflammatory topics of climate change, greenhouse gases, and geo-engineering.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implementing climate change mitigation in health services: the importance of context.

PubMed

Desmond, Sharon

2016-10-01

Academic interest in strategies to reduce the impact of health services on climate change is quickening. Research has largely focused on local innovations with little consideration of the contextual and systemic elements that influence sustainable development across health systems. A realistic framework specifically to guide decision-making by health care providers is still needed. To address this deficit, the literature is explored in relation to health services and climate change mitigation strategies, and the contextual factors that influence efforts to mitigate climate effects in health service delivery environments are highlighted. A conceptual framework is proposed that offers a model for the pursuit of sustainable development practice in health services. A set of propositions is advanced to provide a systems approach to assist decision-making by decoding the challenges faced in implementing sustainable health services. This has important implications for health care providers, funders and legislators since the financial, policy and regulatory environment of health care, along with its leadership and models of care generally conflict with carbon literacy and climate change mitigation strategies. © The Author(s) 2016.

Considering WTO law in the design of climate change regimes beyond Kyoto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaines, Sanford E.

2009-11-01

This article describes the most important provisions of World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements that should be considered in designing laws and regulations under likely post-Kyoto climate change mitigation regimes. The Kyoto Protocol and the expected post-Kyoto international climate agreement depend on national measures to implement market-based mitigation measures. This market strategy promotes international exchanges of goods, investments, and services such as cross-border trading of credits for emissions reductions and transnational financing for projects that avoid emissions through the Clean Development Mechanism. Moreover, the United States and other countries, concerned over "leakage" of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through relocation of industry to other countries coupled with political worry over manufacturing competitiveness, have proposed national climate legislation containing border adjustments on imported goods or implicit subsidies for national producers, raising additional WTO considerations. The article assesses the likely effectiveness of such trade-related measures in achieving climate change mitigation goals and the potential trade policy infringements and trade distortions that they might bring about. Alternative strategies for achieving GHG mitigation goals in closer conformity with WTO law and policy will be suggested.

Geoengineering to Avoid Overshoot: An Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Cho, Cheolhung; Krey, Volker; Patt, Anthony; Rafaj, Peter; Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa; Wagner, Fabian

2010-05-01

Even if a drastic 50% CO2-equivalent emissions reduction is achieved by year 2050, the chances of exceeding a 2°C warming are still substantial due to the uncertainty in the climate system (Meinshausen et al., 2009). Moreover, a strong mitigation is accompanied by overshoot, in which the global-mean temperature temporarily exceeds the target before arriving there. We are motivated by the question as to how much geoengineering would be considered if it were to be used to avoid overshoot even combined with a strong mitigation? How serious would the side effects be expected? This study focuses on stratospheric sulfur injections among other geoengineering proposals, the idea of which has been put forward by Crutzen (2006) and reviewed by Rasch et al. (2008). There are a number of concerns over geoengineering (e.g. Robock, 2008). But the concept of geoengineering requires further research (AMS, 2009). Studying geoengineering may be instructive to revisit the importance of mainstream mitigation strategies. The motivations above led to the following two closely linked studies: 1) Mitigation and Geoengineering The first study investigates the magnitude and start year of geoengineering intervention with the intent to avoid overshoot. This study explores the sensitivity of geoengineering profile to associated uncertainties in the climate system (climate sensitivity, tropospheric aerosol forcing, and ocean diffusivity) and in mitigation scenarios (target uncertainty (450ppm CO2-eq and 400ppm CO2-eq) and baseline uncertainty (A2, B1, and B2)). This study builds on Wigley's premise that demonstrated a basic potential of such a combined mitigation/geoengineering approach (Wigley, 2006) - however it did not examine the sensitivity of the climate response to any underlying uncertainties. This study uses a set of GGI low mitigation scenarios generated from the MESSAGE model (Riahi et al., 2007). The reduced-complexity climate and carbon cycle model ACC2 (Tanaka, 2008; Tanaka et al., 2009) is employed to calculate climate responses including associated uncertainty and to estimate geoengineering profiles to cap the warming at 2°C since preindustrial. The inversion setup for the model ACC2 is used to estimate the uncertain parameters (e.g. climate sensitivity) against associated historical observations (e.g. global-mean surface air temperature). Our preliminary results show that under climate and scenario uncertainties, a geoengineering intervention to avoid an overshoot would be with medium intensity in the latter half of this century (≈ 1 Mt. Pinatubo eruption every 4 years in terms of stratospheric sulfur injections). The start year of geoengineering intervention does not significantly influence the long-term geoengineering profile. However, a geoengineering intervention of the medium intensity could bring about substantial environmental side effects such as the destruction of stratospheric ozone. Our results point to the necessity to pursue persistently mainstream mitigation efforts. 2) Pollution Abatement and Geoengineering The second study examines the potential of geoengineering combined with air clean policy. A drastic air pollution abatement might result in an abrupt warming because it would suddenly remove the tropospheric aerosols which partly offset the background global warming (e.g. Andreae et al, 2005, Raddatz and Tanaka, 2010). This study investigates the magnitude of unrealized warming under a range of policy assumptions and associated uncertainties. Then the profile of geoengineering is estimated to suppress the warming that would be accompanied by clean air policy. This study is the first attempt to explore uncertainty in the warming caused by clean air policy - Kloster et al. (2009), which assess regional changes in climate and hydrological cycle, has not however included associated uncertainties in the analysis. A variety of policy assumptions will be devised to represent various degrees of air pollution abatement. These assumptions are used in the GAINS model to generate pollutants emissions scenarios. Such scenarios are combined with a set of GGI low mitigation scenarios and prescribed to the climate and carbon cycle model ACC2. ACC2 is employed to quantify the warming due to air pollution abatement and the geoengineering profile to avoid such a warming. Furthermore, the implications of such geoengineering interventions (e.g. ecosystem impact and adaptation capacity) are examined. References AMS (Americal Meteorological Society) (2009) A Policy Statement on 20 July 2009. http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2009geoengineeringclimate_amsstatement.pdf Andreae (2005) Nature, 435, 1187-1190, doi:10.1038/nature03671. Crutzen (2006) Climatic Change, 77, 211-219. Kloster et al. (2009) Climate Dynamics, 33, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0573-0. Meinshausen et al. (2009) Nature, 458, 1158-1162, doi:10.1038/nature08017. Raddatz and Tanaka (2010) Prepared for a re-submission to Geophysical Research Letters. Rasch et al. (2008) Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 366, 4007-4037, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131. Riahi et al. (2007) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 887-935, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026. Robock (2008) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 64, 14-18, doi: 10.2968/064002006. Tanaka (2008) Ph.D. thesis. International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany. http://www.sub.uni-hamburg.de/opus/volltexte/2008/3654/ Tanaka et al. (2009) Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L16709, doi:10.1029/2009GL039642. Wigley (2008) Science, 314, 452-454, doi:10.1126/science.1131728.

Implications of Abundant Gas and Oil for Climate Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.

2015-12-01

Perhaps the most important development in the field of energy over the past decade has been the advent of technologies that enable the production of larger volumes of natural gas and oil at lower cost. The availability of more abundant gas and oil is reshaping the global energy system, with implications for both evolving emissions of CO2 and other climate forcers. More abundant gas and oil will also transform the character of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation. We review recent findings regarding the impact of abundant gas and oil for climate forcing and the challenge of emissions mitigation. We find strong evidence that, absent policies to limits its penetration against renewable energy, abundant gas has little observable impact on CO2 emissions, and tends to increase overall climate forcing, though the latter finding is subject to substantial uncertainty. The presence of abundant gas also affects emissions mitigation. There is relatively little literature exploring the implication of expanded gas availability on the difficulty in meeting emissions mitigation goals. However, preliminary results indicate that on global scales abundant gas does not substantially affect the cost of emissions mitigation, even though natural gas could have an expanded role in emissions mitigation scenarios as compared with scenarios in which natural gas is less abundant.

Natural climate solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griscom, Bronson W.; Adams, Justin; Ellis, Peter W.; Houghton, Richard A.; Lomax, Guy; Miteva, Daniela A.; Schlesinger, William H.; Shoch, David; Siikamäki, Juha V.; Smith, Pete; Woodbury, Peter; Zganjar, Chris; Blackman, Allen; Campari, João; Conant, Richard T.; Delgado, Christopher; Elias, Patricia; Gopalakrishna, Trisha; Hamsik, Marisa R.; Herrero, Mario; Kiesecker, Joseph; Landis, Emily; Laestadius, Lars; Leavitt, Sara M.; Minnemeyer, Susan; Polasky, Stephen; Potapov, Peter; Putz, Francis E.; Sanderman, Jonathan; Silvius, Marcel; Wollenberg, Eva; Fargione, Joseph

2017-10-01

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y‑1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y‑1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e‑1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2‑1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

Natural climate solutions.

PubMed

Griscom, Bronson W; Adams, Justin; Ellis, Peter W; Houghton, Richard A; Lomax, Guy; Miteva, Daniela A; Schlesinger, William H; Shoch, David; Siikamäki, Juha V; Smith, Pete; Woodbury, Peter; Zganjar, Chris; Blackman, Allen; Campari, João; Conant, Richard T; Delgado, Christopher; Elias, Patricia; Gopalakrishna, Trisha; Hamsik, Marisa R; Herrero, Mario; Kiesecker, Joseph; Landis, Emily; Laestadius, Lars; Leavitt, Sara M; Minnemeyer, Susan; Polasky, Stephen; Potapov, Peter; Putz, Francis E; Sanderman, Jonathan; Silvius, Marcel; Wollenberg, Eva; Fargione, Joseph

2017-10-31

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify "natural climate solutions" (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS-when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation-is 23.8 petagrams of CO 2 equivalent (PgCO 2 e) y -1 (95% CI 20.3-37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO 2 e y -1 ) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO 2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO 2 e -1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO 2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO 2 -1 Most NCS actions-if effectively implemented-also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

Natural climate solutions

PubMed Central

Adams, Justin; Ellis, Peter W.; Houghton, Richard A.; Lomax, Guy; Miteva, Daniela A.; Schlesinger, William H.; Shoch, David; Siikamäki, Juha V.; Smith, Pete; Woodbury, Peter; Zganjar, Chris; Blackman, Allen; Campari, João; Conant, Richard T.; Delgado, Christopher; Elias, Patricia; Gopalakrishna, Trisha; Hamsik, Marisa R.; Herrero, Mario; Kiesecker, Joseph; Landis, Emily; Laestadius, Lars; Leavitt, Sara M.; Minnemeyer, Susan; Polasky, Stephen; Potapov, Peter; Putz, Francis E.; Sanderman, Jonathan; Silvius, Marcel; Wollenberg, Eva; Fargione, Joseph

2017-01-01

Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change. PMID:29078344

Bethany Speer | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Strategic Energy Analysis Center. Areas of Expertise International economic policy Climate change mitigation Markets Climate change mitigation policies Education M.A. in global finance, trade and economic Keyser, Suzanne Tegen. 2016. Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level.

PubMed

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-04-27

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico.

LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types was used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The climat...

Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

Treesearch

Matthew W. Warren; Steve Frolking; Zhaohua Dai; Sofyan Kurnianto

2016-01-01

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics...

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on the Supply, Management, and Use of Water Resources in the United States

DOE PAGES

Strzepek, K.; Neumann, Jim; Smith, Joel; ...

2014-11-29

Climate change impacts on water resources in the U.S. are likely to be far-reaching and substantial, because the water sector spans many parts of the economy, from supply and demand for agriculture, industry, energy production, transportation and municipal use to damages from natural hazards. This paper provides impact and damage estimates from five water resource-related models in the CIRA frame work, addressing drought risk, flooding damages, water supply and demand, and global water scarcity. The four models differ in the water system assessed, their spatial scale, and the units of assessment, but together they provide a quantitative and descriptive richnessmore » in characterizing water resource sector effects of climate change that no single model can capture. The results also address the sensitivity of these estimates to greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivity alternatives, and global climate model selection. While calculating the net impact of climate change on the water sector as a whole may be impractical, because each of the models applied here uses a consistent set of climate scenarios, broad conclusions can be drawn regarding the patterns of change and the benefits of GHG mitigation policies for the water sector. Two key findings emerge: 1) climate mitigation policy substantially reduces the impact of climate change on the water sector across multiple dimensions; and 2) the more managed the water resources system, the more tempered the climate change impacts and the resulting reduction of impacts from climate mitigation policies.« less

Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

2011-12-01

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

Multiple Adaptation Types with Mitigation: A Framework for Policy Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Effective climate policy will consist of mitigation and adaptation implemented simultaneously in a policy portfolio to reduce the risks of climate change. The relative share of these responses will vary over time and will be adjusted in response to new information. Furthermore,...

A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-12-01

We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We include in our assessment, a range of alternative assumptions on the implementation of current and planned pollution control policies. The resulting air pollution emission ranges significantly extend those in the Representative Concentration Pathways. Climate mitigation policies complement current efforts on air pollution control through technology and fuel transformations in the energy system. A combination of stringent policies on air pollution control and climate change mitigation results in 40% of the global population exposed to PM levels below the WHO air quality guideline; with the largest improvements estimated for India, China, and Middle East. Our results stress the importance of integrated multisector policy approaches to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

Uncertainty as Impetus for Climate Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewandowsky, S.; Oreskes, N.; Risbey, J.

2015-12-01

For decades, the scientific community has called for actions to be taken to mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change. To date, those calls have found little substantial traction, and politicians and the general public are instead engaged in a debate about the causes and effects of climate change that bears little resemblance to the state of scientific knowledge. Uncertainty plays a pivotal role in that public debate, and arguments against mitigation are frequently couched in terms of uncertainty. We show that the rhetorical uses of scientific uncertainty in public debate by some actors (often with vested interests or political agendas) contrast with the mathematical result that greater uncertainty about the extent of warming is virtually always associated with an increased risk: The expected damage costs increase as a function of uncertainty about future warming. We suggest ways in which the actual implications of scientific uncertainty can be better communicated and how scientific uncertainty should be understood as an impetus, rather than a barrier, for climate mitigation.

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Quantifying climate change mitigation potential in Great Plains wetlands for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin B.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Wein, Anne; Bliss, Norman B.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Sohl, Terry L.; Li, Zhengpeng

2015-01-01

We examined opportunities for avoided loss of wetland carbon stocks in the Great Plains of the United States in the context of future agricultural expansion through analysis of land-use land-cover (LULC) change scenarios, baseline carbon datasets and biogeochemical model outputs. A wetland map that classifies wetlands according to carbon pools was created to describe future patterns of carbon loss and potential carbon savings. Wetland avoided loss scenarios, superimposed upon LULC change scenarios, quantified carbon stocks preserved under criteria of carbon densities or land value plus cropland suitability. Up to 3420 km2 of wetlands may be lost in the region by 2050, mainly due to conversion of herbaceous wetlands in the Temperate Prairies where soil organic carbon (SOC) is highest. SOC loss would be approximately 0.20 ± 0.15 megagrams of carbon per hectare per year (MgC ha−1 yr−1), depending upon tillage practices on converted wetlands, and total ecosystem carbon loss in woody wetlands would be approximately 0.81 ± 0.41 MgC ha−1 yr−1, based on biogeochemical model results. Among wetlands vulnerable to conversion, wetlands in the Northern Glaciated Plains and Lake Agassiz Plains ecoregions exhibit very high mean SOC and on average, relatively low land values, potentially creating economically competitive opportunities for avoided carbon loss. This mitigation scenarios approach may be adapted by managers using their own preferred criteria to select sites that best meet their objectives. Results can help prioritize field-based assessments, where site-level investigations of carbon stocks, land value, and consideration of local priorities for climate change mitigation programs are needed.

Achieving CO 2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

DOE PAGES

Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andres Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana Maria; ...

2015-06-03

In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increasemore » in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. As a result, an assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper.« less

Climate-driven reduction in soil loss due to the dynamic role of vegetation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantine, J. A.; Ciampalini, R.; Walker-Springett, K.; Hales, T. C.; Ormerod, S.; Gabet, E. J.; Hall, I. R.

2016-12-01

Simulations of 21st century climate change predict increases in seasonal precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss and reduced soil carbon stores by increasing the likelihood of surface runoff. Vegetation may counteract this increase through its dynamic response to climate change, possibly mitigating any impact on soil erosion. Here, we document for the first time the potential for vegetation to prevent widespread soil loss by surface-runoff mechanisms (i.e., rill and inter-rill erosion) by implementing a process-based soil erosion model across catchments of Great Britain with varying land-cover, topographic, and soil characteristics. Our model results reveal that, even under a significantly wetter climate, warmer air temperatures can limit soil erosion across areas with permanent vegetation cover because of its role in enhancing primary productivity, which improves leaf interception, soil infiltration-capacity, and the erosive resistance of soil. Consequently, any increase in air temperature associated with climate change will increase the threshold change in rainfall required to accelerate soil loss, and rates of soil erosion could therefore decline by up to 50% from 2070-2099 compared to baseline values under the IPCC-defined medium-emissions scenario SRES A1B. We conclude that enhanced primary productivity due to climate change can introduce a negative-feedback mechanism that limits soil loss by surface runoff as vegetation-induced impacts on soil hydrology and erodibility offset precipitation increases, highlighting the need to expand areas of permanent vegetation cover to reduce the potential for climate-driven soil loss.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

Dealing with uncertainty: Response-resilient climate change mitigation polices for long-lived and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Boneham, J.; Hepburn, C.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Climate change solutions are subject to many inherent uncertainties. One of the most important is the uncertainty over the magnitude of the physical response of the climate system to external forcing. The risk of extremely large responses to forcing, so called "fat-tail" outcomes, cannot be ruled out from the latest science and offer profound challenges when creating policies that aim to meet a specific target of global temperature change. This study offers examples of how mitigation policies can be made resilient to this uncertainty in the physical climate response via indexing policies against an attributable anthropogenic warming index (the magnitude of the observed global mean warming that is can be traced to human activities), the AWI, instead of against time directly. We show that indexing policy measures that influence the total stock of carbon in the atmosphere (such as the fraction of extracted carbon sequestered) against the AWI can largely eliminate the risk of missing the specified warming goal due to unexpectedly large climate responses as well as the risk of costly over-mitigation if the physical response turned out to be lower than expected. We offer further examples of how this methodology can be expanded to include short-lived climate pollutants as well as long-lived carbon dioxide. Indexing policies against the AWI can have important consequences for the actions of governments acting to design national climate mitigation policies as well as private sector investors looking to incentivise the transition to a climate-stable economy. We conclude with some thoughts on how these indexes can help focus attention on the long-term perspective that is consistent with the conclusions of the latest climate science on what is required to ultimately stabilise the global climate system.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

An Alternative View of the Climate Warming Mitigation Potential of U.S. Temperate Forests

EPA Science Inventory

Many U.S. federal and non-governmental agencies promote forestation as a means to mitigate climate warming because of the carbon sequestration potential of forests. This biogeochemical-oriented carbon sequestration policy is somewhat inconsistent with a decade or more of researc...

Carbon sequestration in managed temperate coniferous forests under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dymond, Caren C.; Beukema, Sarah; Nitschke, Craig R.; Coates, K. David; Scheller, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Management of temperate forests has the potential to increase carbon sinks and mitigate climate change. However, those opportunities may be confounded by negative climate change impacts. We therefore need a better understanding of climate change alterations to temperate forest carbon dynamics before developing mitigation strategies. The purpose of this project was to investigate the interactions of species composition, fire, management, and climate change in the Copper-Pine Creek valley, a temperate coniferous forest with a wide range of growing conditions. To do so, we used the LANDIS-II modelling framework including the new Forest Carbon Succession extension to simulate forest ecosystems under four different productivity scenarios, with and without climate change effects, until 2050. Significantly, the new extension allowed us to calculate the net sector productivity, a carbon accounting metric that integrates aboveground and belowground carbon dynamics, disturbances, and the eventual fate of forest products. The model output was validated against literature values. The results implied that the species optimum growing conditions relative to current and future conditions strongly influenced future carbon dynamics. Warmer growing conditions led to increased carbon sinks and storage in the colder and wetter ecoregions but not necessarily in the others. Climate change impacts varied among species and site conditions, and this indicates that both of these components need to be taken into account when considering climate change mitigation activities and adaptive management. The introduction of a new carbon indicator, net sector productivity, promises to be useful in assessing management effectiveness and mitigation activities.

Integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost and adaptation cost in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Kim, H. G.; Sung, S.; Jung, T. Y.

2015-12-01

Various studies show that raising the temperature as well as storms, cold snap, raining and drought caused by climate change. And variety disasters have had a damage to mankind. The world risk report(2012, The Nature Conservancy) and UNU-EHS (the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security) reported that more and more people are exposed to abnormal weather such as floods, drought, earthquakes, typhoons and hurricanes over the world. In particular, the case of Korea, we influenced by various pollutants which are occurred in Northeast Asian countries, China and Japan, due to geographical meteorological characteristics. These contaminants have had a significant impact on air quality with the pollutants generated in Korea. Recently, around the world continued their effort to reduce greenhouse gas and to improve air quality in conjunction with the national or regional development goals priority. China is also working on various efforts in accordance with the international flows to cope with climate change and air pollution. In the future, effect of climate change and air quality in Korea and Northeast Asia will be change greatly according to China's growth and mitigation policies. The purpose of this study is to minimize the damage caused by climate change on the Korean peninsula through an integrated approach taking into account the mitigation and adaptation plan. This study will suggest a climate change strategy at the national level by means of a comprehensive economic analysis of the impacts and mitigation of climate change. In order to quantify the impact and damage cost caused by climate change scenarios in a regional scale, it should be priority variables selected in accordance with impact assessment of climate change. The sectoral impact assessment was carried out on the basis of selected variables and through this, to derive the methodology how to estimate damage cost and adaptation cost. And then, the methodology was applied in Korea. Finally, we build an integrated analysis considered mitigation cost, damage cost, and adaptation cost by climate change

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

The Role of Science in Advising the Decision Making Process: A Pathway for Building Effective Climate Change Mitigation Policies in Mexico at the Local Level

PubMed Central

Barraza, Roberto; Velazquez-Angulo, Gilberto; Flores-Tavizón, Edith; Romero-González, Jaime; Huertas-Cardozo, José Ignacio

2016-01-01

This study examines a pathway for building urban climate change mitigation policies by presenting a multi-dimensional and transdisciplinary approach in which technical, economic, environmental, social, and political dimensions interact. Now, more than ever, the gap between science and policymaking needs to be bridged; this will enable judicious choices to be made in regarding energy and climate change mitigation strategies, leading to positive social impacts, in particular for the populations at-risk at the local level. Through a case study in Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico, we propose a multidimensional and transdisciplinary approach with the role of scientist as policy advisers to improve the role of science in decision-making on mitigation policies at the local level in Mexico. PMID:27128933

Inclusion of climate change strategies in municipal Integrated Development Plans: A case from seven municipalities in Limpopo Province, South Africa

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made it clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gasses are the main cause of observed global warming that leads to climate change. Climate change is now a global reality. In the South African political set-up, local municipalities are the structures that are in direct contact with communities and they draw up Integrated Development Plans (IDPs), which are reviewed and upgraded annually. The article seeks to investigate the extent to which climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies are embedded IDPs in seven vulnerable municipalities in the Limpopo Province. The article conducted an in-depth content analysis of the IDPs of the seven municipalities and the results have revealed that these municipalities have not included adaptation and mitigation strategies adequately in their IDPs despite being the most vulnerable municipalities in the province. The article concludes that these municipalities have not as yet institutionalised climate change in their daily operations, planning and decision making. To this end, the paper recommends that local municipalities should include climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in their IDPs.

A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Waldhoff, S.; DeAngelo, B. J.; McFarland, J.; Jantarasami, L.; Shouse, K.; Crimmins, A.; Li, J.

2014-12-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the physical impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change. The primary goal of this framework is to estimate the degree to which climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced in the 21st century under multiple greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. The first phase of the CIRA project is a modeling exercise that included two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing five broad impacts sectors: water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, and ecosystems. Three consistent socioeconomic and climate scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference scenario and two policy scenarios with total radiative forcing targets in 2100 of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2. In this exercise, the implications of key uncertainties are explored, including climate sensitivity, climate model, natural variability, and model structures and parameters. This presentation describes the motivations and goals of the CIRA project; the design and academic contribution of the first CIRA modeling exercise; and briefly summarizes several papers published in a special issue of Climatic Change. The results across impact sectors show that GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over time, the effects of climate change can be strongly influenced by near-term policy choices, adaptation can reduce net damages, and impacts exhibit spatial and temporal patterns that may inform mitigation and adaptation policy discussions.

Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

2018-01-01

Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha−1 in nitrate yield relative to the watershed with a lower percent of croplands as a result of increased export of nitrate derived from fertilizer. The watershed dominated by poorly drained soils showed increased nitrate removal due do enhanced denitrification compared to the watershed dominated by well-drained soils. Our findings suggest that increased implementation of conservation practices would be necessary for this region to mitigate increased nitrate loads associated with predicted changes in future climate.

Meeting the Radiative Forcing Targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways with Agricultural Climate Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyle, P.; Müller, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.

2013-12-01

The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) have formed the basis for much of the current scientific understanding of future climate change impacts and mitigation. However, the emissions scenarios underlying the RCPs were produced by integrated assessment models that did not include impacts of future climate change on the modeled evolution of the agricultural and energy systems. Given the prominent role of bioenergy in greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, and given the importance of land-use-related emissions in determining future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, it is possible that agricultural climate impacts may cause significant changes to the means and costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This study builds on several international modeling exercises aimed at improving understanding of climate change impacts--CMIP-5 and ISI-MIP--that have generated global gridded climate impacts on yields of major agricultural crops in each of the four RCPs. We use the climate outcomes from the HadGEM2-ES climate model, and the agricultural yield outcomes from the LPJmL crop growth model to inform inputs to the GCAM integrated assessment model, allowing analysis of how agricultural climate impacts may affect the long-term global and regional strategies for achieving the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of the RCPs. Our results indicate that for this combination of models and emissions scenarios, strongly negative climate impacts on several major commodity classes--prominently cereals and oil seeds, and particularly in the high-radiative-forcing RCPs--lead to a long-term increase in cropland and therefore land-use-related CO2 emissions. All else equal, this increases the emissions mitigation burden on the rest of the system, and therefore increases total net costs of emissions mitigation. However, the future climate change impacts on C4 bioenergy crops tend to be positive, limiting the shock of agricultural climate impacts on the modeled energy supply and demand systems. As well, endogenous adaptation in the agricultural sector--mostly through inter-regional shifting in production and changes in trade patterns--limits the shock of climate impacts to consumers. Global average climate impacts on wheat yields for the four emissions scenarios, using base-year weights (asterisks) and using the endogenous land allocations in GCAM (filled diamonds)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veysey, Jason; Octaviano, Claudia; Calvin, Katherine

Mexico’s climate policy sets ambitious national greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets—30% versus a business-as-usual baseline by 2020, 50% versus 2000 by 2050. However, these goals are at odds with recent energy and emission trends in the country. Both energy use and GHG emissions in Mexico have grown substantially over the last two decades. Here, we investigate how Mexico might reverse current trends and reach its mitigation targets by exploring results from energy system and economic models involved in the CLIMACAP-LAMP project. To meet Mexico’s emission reduction targets, all modeling groups agree that decarbonization of electricity is needed, along withmore » changes in the transport sector, either to more efficient vehicles or a combination of more efficient vehicles and lower carbon fuels. These measures reduce GHG emissions as well as emissions of other air pollutants. The models find different energy supply pathways, with some solutions based on renewable energy and others relying on biomass or fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage. The economy-wide costs of deep mitigation could range from 2% to 4% of GDP in 2030, and from 7% to 15% of GDP in 2050. Our results suggest that Mexico has some flexibility in designing deep mitigation strategies, and that technological options could allow Mexico to achieve its emission reduction targets, albeit at a cost to the country.« less

Implications of changing water cycle for the performance and yield characteristics of the multi-purpose Beas Reservoir in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Ojha, C. S.; Soundharajan, B.; Remesan, R.

2013-12-01

There is considerable change in both the spatial and temporal patterns of monsoon rainfall in India, with implications for water resources availability and security. 'Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on India Agriculture' (MICCI) is one of five on-going scientific efforts being sponsored as part of the UK-NERC/India-MOES Changing Water Cycle (South Asia) initiative to further the understanding of the problem and proffer solutions that are robust and effective. This paper focuses on assessing the implications of projected climate change on the yield and performance characteristics of the Pong Reservoir on the Beas River, Himachal Pradesh, India. The Pong serves both hydropower and irrigation needs and is therefore strategic for the socio-economic well-being of the region as well as sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers that rely on it for irrigation. Simulated baseline and climate-change perturbed hydro-climate scenarios developed as part of a companion Work Package of MICCI formed the basis of the analysis. For both of these scenarios, reservoir analyses were carried out using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA) and Pong's existing level of releases to derive rule curves for the reservoir. These rule curves then formed the basis of further reservoir behaviour simulations in WEAP and the resulting performance of the reservoir was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The whole exercise was implemented within a Monte Carlo framework for the benefit of characterising the variability in the assessments. The results show that the rule curves developed using future hydro-climate are significantly changed from the baseline in that higher storages will be required to be maintained in the Pong in the future to achieve reliable performance. As far as the overall performance of the reservoir is concerned, future reliability (both time-based and volume-based) is not significantly different from the baseline, provided the future simulations adopt the future rule curves. This is, however, not the case with the resilience, with the future hydro-climate resulting in a less resilient system when compared with the baseline. The resilience is the ability of the system to recover from a hydrological failure; consequently, lower resilience for the future systems is an indication that longer, continuous failure periods are likely with implications for the two purposes of the reservoir. For example, extended periods of water scarcity that may result from a low resilient system will mean that crops are likely to experience longer periods of water stress with implications for crop yields. In such situations, better operational practices that manage the available water through hedging and irrigation water scheduling will be required. Other interventions may include the introduction of water from other sources, e.g. groundwater.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

The contribution of future agricultural trends in the US Midwest to global climate change mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Kyle, G. Page; Zhang, Xuesong

2014-01-19

Land use change is a complex response to changing environmental and socioeconomic systems. Historical drivers of land use change include changes in the natural resource availability of a region, changes in economic conditions for production of certain products and changing policies. Most recently, introduction of policy incentives for biofuel production have influenced land use change in the US Midwest, leading to concerns that bioenergy production systems may compete with food production and land conservation. Here we explore how land use may be impacted by future climate mitigation measures by nesting a high resolution agricultural model (EPIC – Environmental Policy Indicatormore » Climate) for the US Midwest within a global integrated assessment model (GCAM – Global Change Assessment Model). This approach is designed to provide greater spatial resolution and detailed agricultural practice information by focusing on the climate mitigation potential of agriculture and land use in a specific region, while retaining the global economic context necessary to understand the far ranging effects of climate mitigation targets. We find that until the simulated carbon prices are very high, the US Midwest has a comparative advantage in producing traditional food and feed crops over bioenergy crops. Overall, the model responds to multiple pressures by adopting a mix of future responses. We also find that the GCAM model is capable of simulations at multiple spatial scales and agricultural technology resolution, which provides the capability to examine regional response to global policy and economic conditions in the context of climate mitigation.« less

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

GHG emissions inventory for on-road transportation in the town of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanna, Laura; Ferrara, Roberto; Zara, Pierpaolo; Duce, Pierpaolo

2016-04-01

The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) accounts an increase of the total annual anthropogenic GHG emissions between 2000 and 2010 that directly came from the transport sector. In 2010, 14% of GHG emissions were released by transport and fossil-fuel-related CO2 emissions reached about 32 GtCO2 per year. The report also considers adaptation and mitigation as complementary strategies for reducing the risks of climate change for sustainable development of urban areas. This paper describes the on-road traffic emission estimated in the framework of a Sardinian regional project [1] for the town of Sassari (Sardinia, Italy), one of the Sardinian areas where the fuel consumption for on-road transportation purposes is higher [2]. The GHG emissions have been accounted (a) by a calculation-based methodology founded on a linear relationship between source activity and emission, and (b) by the COPERT IV methodology through the EMITRA (EMIssions from road TRAnsport) software tool [3]. Inventory data for annual fossil fuel consumption associated with on-road transportation (diesel, gasoline, gas) have been collected through the Dogane service, the ATP and ARST public transport services and vehicle fleet data are available from the Public Vehicle Database (PRA), using 2010 as baseline year. During this period, the estimated CO2 emissions accounts for more than 180,000 tCO2. The calculation of emissions due to on-road transport quantitatively estimates CO2 and other GHG emissions and represents a useful baseline to identify possible adaptation and mitigation strategies to face the climate change risks at municipal level. Acknowledgements This research was funded by the Sardinian Regional Project "Development, functional checking and setup of an integrated system for the quantification of CO2 net exchange and for the evaluation of mitigation strategies at urban and territorial scale", (Legge Regionale 7 agosto 2007, No. 7). References [1] Sanna L., Ferrara R., Zara P. & Duce P. (2014), GHG emissions inventory at urban scale: the Sassari case study, Energy Procedia, No. 59, pp. 344 - 350. [2] Bellasio R, Bianconi R, Corda G, Cucca P. (2007), Emission inventory for the road transport sector in Sardinia (Italy), Atmospheric Environment, No. 41, pp. 677-691. [3] Gkatzoflias D., Kouridis C., Ntziachristos L. & Samaras Z. (2012), COPERT 4, Computer programme to calculate emissions from road transport, User manual (version 9.0), Emisia.

Climate-change influences on the response of macroinvertebrate communities to pesticide contamination in the Sacramento River, California watershed.

PubMed

Chiu, Ming-Chih; Hunt, Lisa; Resh, Vincent H

2017-03-01

Limited studies have addressed how future climate-change scenarios may alter the effects of pesticides on biotic assemblages or the effects of exposures to repeated pulses of pesticide mixtures. We used reported pesticide-use data as input to a hydrological fate and transport model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under multiple climate-change scenarios to simulate spatiotemporal dynamics of pesticides mixtures in streams on a daily time-step in the Sacramento River watershed of California. We predicted that there will be increased pesticide application with warming across the watershed, especially in upstream areas. Using a statistical model describing the relationship between macroinvertebrate communities and pesticide dynamics, we found that compared to the baseline period of 1970-1999: (1) most climate-change scenarios predicted increased rainfall and warming across the watershed during 2070-2099; and (2) increasing pesticide contamination and increased impact on macroinvertebrates will likely occur in most areas of the watershed by 2070-2099; and (3) lower increases in effects of pesticides on macroinvertebrates were predicted for the downstream areas with intensive agriculture compared to some upstream areas with less-intensive agriculture. Future efforts on practical adaptation and mitigation strategies can be improved by awareness of altered threats of pesticide mixtures under future climate-change conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany.

PubMed

Uehleke, Reinhard

2016-06-01

The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats.

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WorkingGroup III

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barker, Terry; Bashmakov, Igor; Bernstein, Lenny

2007-04-30

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change,more » - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report.« less

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

2017-04-01

In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would change that picture.

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takakura, Jun'ya; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Honda, Yasushi; Masui, Toshihiko

2017-06-01

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

PubMed

Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

University Leadership in Island Climate Change Mitigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coffman, Makena

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present the University of Hawaii at Manoa's (UHM's) initiatives in achieving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions on campus and at the state level. Design/methodology/approach: UHM has taken a "lead by example" approach to climate change mitigation in terms of working to meet the American…

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current quantification of Climate Warming Mitigation Potential (CWMP) of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site-level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM...

Carbon stocks of mangroves within the Zambezi River Delta, Mozambique

Treesearch

Christina E. Stringer; Carl C. Trettin; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Wenwu Tang

2015-01-01

Mangroves are well-known for their numerous ecosystem services, including storing a globally significant C pool. There is increasing interest in the inclusion of mangroves in national climate change mitigation and adaptation plans in developing nations as they become involved with incentive programs for climate change mitigation. The quality and precision of data...

Two Brief Interventions to Mitigate a "Chilly Climate" Transform Women's Experience, Relationships, and Achievement in Engineering

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walton, Gregory M.; Logel, Christine; Peach, Jennifer M.; Spencer, Steven J.; Zanna, Mark P.

2015-01-01

In a randomized-controlled trial, we tested 2 brief interventions designed to mitigate the effects of a "chilly climate" women may experience in engineering, especially in male-dominated fields. Participants were students entering a selective university engineering program. The "social-belonging intervention" aimed to protect…

Forest management for mitigation and adaptation: insights from long-term silvicultural experiments

Treesearch

Anthony W. D' Amato; John B. Bradford; Shawn Fraver; Brian J. Palik

2011-01-01

Developing management strategies for addressing global climate change has become an increasingly important issue influencing forest management around the globe. Currently, management approaches are being proposed that intend to (1) mitigate climate change by enhancing forest carbon stores and (2) foster adaptation by maintaining compositionally and structurally complex...

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed

Resnik, David B; Vallero, Daniel A

2011-12-17

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts.

Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

2013-12-01

Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.

Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility

PubMed Central

Wolkinger, Brigitte; Weisz, Ulli; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

2018-01-01

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action. PMID:29710784

Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.

PubMed

Wolkinger, Brigitte; Haas, Willi; Bachner, Gabriel; Weisz, Ulli; Steininger, Karl; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

2018-04-28

There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.

Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.

PubMed

Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D

2017-01-01

The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action.

PubMed

Costello, Anthony; Maslin, Mark; Montgomery, Hugh; Johnson, Anne M; Ekins, Paul

2011-05-13

The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late. © 2011 Royal Society

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: introduction to a SETAC international workshop.

PubMed

Stahl, Ralph G; Hooper, Michael J; Balbus, John M; Clements, William; Fritz, Alyce; Gouin, Todd; Helm, Roger; Hickey, Christopher; Landis, Wayne; Moe, S Jannicke

2013-01-01

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled "The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry." The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

The influence of global climate change on the scientific foundations and applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Introduction to a SETAC international workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stahl, Ralph G.; Hooper, Michael J.; Balbus, John M.; Clements, William; Fritz, Alyce; Gouin, Todd; Helm, Roger; Hickey, Christopher; Landis, Wayne; Moe, S. Jannicke

2013-01-01

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners.

Trade-offs of Solar Geoengineering and Mitigation under Climate Targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Stankoweit, M.; Roshan, E.; Schmidt, H.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Scientific analyses have hitherto focused on the pros and cons of solar-radiation management (SRM) as a climate-policy option mainly in mere isolation. Here we put SRM into the context of mitigation by a strictly temperature-target-based approach. To the best of our knowledge, for the first time, we introduce a concept for a regional integrated analysis of SRM and mitigation in-line with the `2°C target'. We explicitly account for a risk-risk comparison of SRM and global warming, extending the applicability regime of temperature targets from mitigation-only to joint-SRM-mitigation analysis while minimizing economic costs required for complying with the 2°C target. Upgrading it to include SRM, we employ the integrated energy-economy-climate model MIND. We utilize the two-box climate model of DICE and calibrate the short and long time scales respectively into GeoMIP G3 experiment and quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiment from CEMIP5 suite. Our results show that without risk-risk accounting SRM will displace mitigation. However, our analysis highlights that the value system enshrined in the 2°C target can almost preclude SRM; this is exemplified by one single regional climate variable, here precipitation, which is confined to regional bounds compatible with 2°C of global warming. Although about a half of policy costs can be saved, the results indicate that the additional amount of CO2 that could be released to the atmosphere corresponds to only 0.2°C of further global warming. Hence, the society might debate whether the risks of SRM should be taken for that rather small amount of additional carbon emissions. Nonetheless, our results point out a significantly larger role for SRM implementation if the guardrails of some regions are relaxed.

Water conservation benefits of urban heat mitigation: can cooling strategies reduce water consumption in California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Jones, A. D.

2017-12-01

Urban areas are at the forefront of climate mitigation and adaptation efforts given their high concentration of people, industry, and infrastructure. Many cities globally are seeking strategies to counter the consequences of both a hotter and drier climate. While urban heat mitigation strategies have been shown to have beneficial effects on health, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions, their implications for water conservation have not been widely examined. Here we show that broad implementation of cool roofs, an urban heat mitigation strategy, not only results in significant cooling of air temperature, but also meaningfully decreases outdoor water consumption by reducing evaporative and irrigation water demands. Based on a suite of satellite-supported, multiyear regional climate simulations, we find that cool roof adoption has the potential to reduce outdoor water consumption across the major metropolitan areas in California by up to 9%. Irrigation water savings per capita, induced by cool roofs, range from 1.8 to 15.4 gallons per day across 18 counties examined. Total water savings in Los Angeles county alone is about 83 million gallons per day. While this effect is robust across the 15 years examined (2001-2015), including both drought and non-drought years, we find that cool roofs are most effective during the hottest days of the year, indicating that they could play an even greater role in reducing outdoor water use in a hotter future climate. We further show that this synergistic relationship between heat mitigation and water conservation is asymmetrical - policies that encourage direct reductions in irrigation water use can lead to substantial regional warming, potentially conflicting with heat mitigation efforts designed to counter the effects of the projected warming climate.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Velders, Guus J M; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2014-11-18

Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2-SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2-SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2-SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.

Modelling the effectiveness of grass buffer strips in managing muddy floods under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Vandaele, Karel; Boardman, John; Meneely, John; Crossley, Laura H.

2016-10-01

Muddy floods occur when rainfall generates runoff on agricultural land, detaching and transporting sediment into the surrounding natural and built environment. In the Belgian Loess Belt, muddy floods occur regularly and lead to considerable economic costs associated with damage to property and infrastructure. Mitigation measures designed to manage the problem have been tested in a pilot area within Flanders and were found to be cost-effective within three years. This study assesses whether these mitigation measures will remain effective under a changing climate. To test this, the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model was used to examine muddy flooding diagnostics (precipitation, runoff, soil loss and sediment yield) for a case study hillslope in Flanders where grass buffer strips are currently used as a mitigation measure. The model was run for present day conditions and then under 33 future site-specific climate scenarios. These future scenarios were generated from three earth system models driven by four representative concentration pathways and downscaled using quantile mapping and the weather generator CLIGEN. Results reveal that under the majority of future scenarios, muddy flooding diagnostics are projected to increase, mostly as a consequence of large scale precipitation events rather than mean changes. The magnitude of muddy flood events for a given return period is also generally projected to increase. These findings indicate that present day mitigation measures may have a reduced capacity to manage muddy flooding given the changes imposed by a warming climate with an enhanced hydrological cycle. Revisions to the design of existing mitigation measures within existing policy frameworks are considered the most effective way to account for the impacts of climate change in future mitigation planning.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

PubMed Central

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T.; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2–SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change. PMID:25368182

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Integrated Assessment of Global Water Scarcity over the 21st Century under Multiple Climate Change Mitigation Policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.

2014-01-01

Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14more » geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and a global population of 14 billion by 2095, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demand for water exceeds the amount of water availability in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 20% and 27% of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change.« less

Climate targets and cost-effective climate stabilization pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.

2015-08-01

Climate economics has developed two main tools to derive an economically adequate response to the climate problem. Cost benefit analysis weighs in any available information on mitigation costs and benefits and thereby derives an "optimal" global mean temperature. Quite the contrary, cost effectiveness analysis allows deriving costs of potential policy targets and the corresponding cost- minimizing investment paths. The article highlights pros and cons of both approaches and then focusses on the implications of a policy that strives at limiting global warming to 2 °C compared to pre-industrial values. The related mitigation costs and changes in the energy sector are summarized according to the IPCC report of 2014. The article then points to conceptual difficulties when internalizing uncertainty in these types of analyses and suggests pragmatic solutions. Key statements on mitigation economics remain valid under uncertainty when being given the adequate interpretation. Furthermore, the expected economic value of perfect climate information is found to be on the order of hundreds of billions of Euro per year if a 2°-policy were requested. Finally, the prospects of climate policy are sketched.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L

2017-03-07

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike. PMID:28267144

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-03-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker

2015-01-01

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnosticmore » indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.« less

Health benefits, ecological threats of low-carbon electricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibon, Thomas; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Arvesen, Anders; Singh, Bhawna; Verones, Francesca

2017-03-01

Stabilizing global temperature will require a shift to renewable or nuclear power from fossil power and the large-scale deployment of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) for remaining fossil fuel use. Non-climate co-benefits of low-carbon energy technologies, especially reduced mortalities from air pollution and decreased ecosystem damage, have been important arguments for policies to reduce CO2 emissions. Taking into account a wide range of environmental mechanisms and the complex interactions of the supply chains of different technologies, we conducted the first life cycle assessment of potential human health and ecological impacts of a global low-carbon electricity scenario. Our assessment indicates strong human health benefits of low-carbon electricity. For ecosystem quality, there is a significant trade-off between reduced pollution and climate impacts and potentially significant ecological impacts from land use associated with increased biopower utilization. Other renewables, nuclear power and CCS show clear ecological benefits, so that the climate mitigation scenario with a relatively low share of biopower has lower ecosystem impacts than the baseline scenario. Energy policy can maximize co-benefits by supporting other renewable and nuclear power and developing biomass supply from sources with low biodiversity impact.

Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

PubMed

Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

2018-07-01

Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global variation in the cost of increasing ecosystem carbon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larjavaara, Markku; Kanninen, Markku; Gordillo, Harold; Koskinen, Joni; Kukkonen, Markus; Käyhkö, Niina; Larson, Anne M.; Wunder, Sven

2018-01-01

Slowing the reduction, or increasing the accumulation, of organic carbon stored in biomass and soils has been suggested as a potentially rapid and cost-effective method to reduce the rate of atmospheric carbon increase1. The costs of mitigating climate change by increasing ecosystem carbon relative to the baseline or business-as-usual scenario has been quantified in numerous studies, but results have been contradictory, as both methodological issues and substance differences cause variability2. Here we show, based on 77 standardized face-to-face interviews of local experts with the best possible knowledge of local land-use economics and sociopolitical context in ten landscapes around the globe, that the estimated cost of increasing ecosystem carbon varied vastly and was perceived to be 16-27 times cheaper in two Indonesian landscapes dominated by peatlands compared with the average of the eight other landscapes. Hence, if reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and other land-use mitigation efforts are to be distributed evenly across forested countries, for example, for the sake of international equity, their overall effectiveness would be dramatically lower than for a cost-minimizing distribution.

Urban Heat Islands and Their Mitigation vs. Local Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taha, H.

2007-12-01

Urban heat islands and their mitigation take on added significance, both negative and positive, when viewed from a climate-change perspective. In negative terms, urban heat islands can act as local exacerbating factors, or magnifying lenses, to the effects of regional and large-scale climate perturbations and change. They can locally impact meteorology, energy/electricity generation and use, thermal environment (comfort and heat waves), emissions of air pollutants, photochemistry, and air quality. In positive terms, on the other hand, mitigation of urban heat islands (via urban surface modifications and control of man-made heat, for example) can potentially have a beneficial effect of mitigating the local negative impacts of climate change. In addition, mitigation of urban heat islands can, in itself, contribute to preventing regional and global climate change, even if modestly, by helping reduce CO2 emissions from power plants and other sources as a result of decreased energy use for cooling (both direct and indirect) and reducing the rates of meteorology-dependent emissions of air pollutants. This presentation will highlight aspects and characteristics of heat islands, their mitigation, their modeling and quantification techniques, and recent advances in meso-urban modeling of California (funded by the California Energy Commission). In particular, the presentation will focus on results from quantitative, modeling-based analyses of the potential benefits of heat island mitigation in 1) reducing point- and area-source emissions of CO2, NOx, and VOC as a result of reduced cooling energy demand and ambient/surface temperatures, 2) reducing evaporative and fugitive hydrocarbon emissions as a result of lowered temperatures, 3) reducing biogenic hydrocarbon emissions from existing vegetative cover, 4) slowing the rates of tropospheric/ground-level ozone formation and/or accumulation in the urban boundary layer, and 5) helping improve air quality. Quantitative estimates of the above will be presented based on recent and earlier meteorological, energy, thermal environmental, emissions, and photochemical modeling studies for California and Texas.

Revaluing unmanaged forests for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Krug, Joachim; Koehl, Michael; Kownatzki, Dierk

2012-11-14

Unmanaged or old-growth forests are of paramount importance for carbon sequestration and thus for the mitigation of climate change among further implications, e.g. biodiversity aspects. Still, the importance of those forests for climate change mitigation compared to managed forests is under controversial debate. We evaluate the adequacy of referring to CO2 flux measurements alone and include external impacts on growth (nitrogen immissions, increasing temperatures, CO2 enrichment, changed precipitation patterns) for an evaluation of central European forests in this context. We deduce that the use of CO2 flux measurements alone does not allow conclusions on a superiority of unmanaged to managed forests for mitigation goals. This is based on the critical consideration of uncertainties and the application of system boundaries. Furthermore, the consideration of wood products for material and energetic substitution obviously overrules the mitigation potential of unmanaged forests. Moreover, impacts of nitrogen immissions, CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere, increasing temperatures and changed precipitation patterns obviously lead to a meaningful increase in growth, even in forests of higher age. An impact of unmanaged forests on climate change mitigation cannot be valued by CO2 flux measurements alone. Further research is needed on cause and effect relationships between management practices and carbon stocks in different compartments of forest ecosystems in order to account for human-induced changes. Unexpected growth rates in old-growth forests - managed or not - can obviously be related to external impacts and additionally to management impacts. This should lead to the reconsideration of forest management strategies.

Modelling multiple threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld Policy Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Soesbergen, A. J. J.; Mulligan, M.

2013-06-01

This paper explores a multitude of threats to water security in the Peruvian Amazon using the WaterWorld policy support system. WaterWorld is a spatially explicit, physically-based globally-applicable model for baseline and scenario water balance that is particularly well suited to heterogeneous environments with little locally available data (e.g. ungauged basins) and which is delivered through a simple web interface, requiring little local capacity for use. The model is capable of producing a hydrological baseline representing the mean water balance for 1950-2000 and allows for examining impacts of population, climate and land use change as well as land and water management interventions on hydrology. This paper describes the application of WaterWorld to the Peruvian Amazon, an area that is increasingly under pressure from deforestation and water pollution as a result of population growth, rural to urban migration and oil and gas extraction, potentially impacting both water quantity and water quality. By applying single and combined scenarios of: climate change, deforestation around existing and planned roads, population growth and rural-urban migration, mining and oil and gas exploitation, we explore the potential combined impacts of these multiple changes on water resources in the Peruvian Amazon and discuss the likely pathways for adaptation to and mitigation against their worst effects. See Mulligan et al. (2013) for a similar analysis for the entire Amazon Basin.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

Environmental effects of shifts in a regional heating mix through variations in the utilization of solid biofuels.

PubMed

Wolf, Christian; Klein, Daniel; Richter, Klaus; Weber-Blaschke, Gabriele

2016-07-15

Solid Biofuels, i.e. wood, play an important role in present and future national and global climate change mitigation policies. Wood energy, while displaying favorable properties for the mitigation of climate change also exhibits several drawbacks, such as potentially high emission of particulate matter. To assess the environmental effects of shifts in the heating mix, emission factors of the comprising energy carriers and the Bavarian heating mix were determined. Through the application of regionalized substitution percentiles the environmental effects caused by shifts in the amount of final energy provided by solid biofuels could be identified. For this purpose, four scenarios, based on political and scientific specifications were assessed. In 2011 a total amount of 663.715 TJ of final energy was used for the provision of heat in Bavaria, with solid biofuels exhibiting the third largest share of 12.6% (83% of renewable heat). Environmental effects were evaluated through life cycle assessments assessing the impact categories of Global Warming (GW), Particulate Matter emissions (PM), Freshwater Eutrophication (ET) and Acidification (AC). Additionally, the non-renewable primary energy consumption (PE) was analyzed. The heating mix in Bavaria (Baseline) causes emissions of 49.6 Mt CO2-eq. * yr(-1)(GW), 14.555 t of PM2.5-eq. * yr(-1) (PM), 873.4 t P-eq. * yr(-1) (ET), and 82.299 kmol H(+) eq. * yr(-1) (AC), for which 721,745 TJ of primary energy were expended. Current policies entail a GHG reduction potential of approximately 1 Mt CO2-eq. * yr(-1) while increasing the amount of energy wood by 15%. The maximum, hypothetical share of solid biofuels of the heating mix cannot surpass 25%, while the climate change mitigation performance of the current use of solid biofuels is approximately 6.4 Mt CO2-eq. * yr(-1). GHG-emissions would be 13% higher and PM emissions 77% lower without this energetic use of wood. Furthermore, our calculations allow for new specified displacement factors through energy substitution, based on the current wood energy mix for regionalized conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions.

PubMed

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-03-11

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.

PubMed

de Boer, Joop; de Witt, Annick; Aiking, Harry

2016-03-01

This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

PubMed Central

Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

2014-01-01

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare.

PubMed

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-05-21

The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture.

Renewable Energy and Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chum, H. L.

2012-01-01

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) at http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/ (May 2011 electronic version; printed form ISBN 978-1-107-60710-1, 2012). More than 130 scientists contributed to the report.* The SRREN assessed existing literature on the future potential of renewable energy for the mitigation of climate change within a portfolio of mitigation options including energy conservation and efficiency, fossil fuel switching, RE, nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS). It covers the six most important renewable energy technologies - bioenergy, direct solar, geothermal, hydropower, ocean and wind, as well as theirmore » integration into present and future energy systems. It also takes into consideration the environmental and social consequences associated with these technologies, the cost and strategies to overcome technical as well as non-technical obstacles to their application and diffusion.« less

Early action on HFCs mitigates future atmospheric change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2016-11-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases and the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential greenhouse gas regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. HFCs should be explicitly considered in upcoming climate and ozone assessments, since chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19 K at 80 hPa. The HFC mitigation scenarios described in this study demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Changing Family Habits: A Case Study into Climate Change Mitigation Behavior in Families

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leger, Michel T.; Pruneau, Diane

2012-01-01

A case-study methodology was used to explore the process of change as experienced by 3 suburban families in an attempt to incorporate climate change mitigation behavior into their day to day life. Cross-case analysis of the findings revealed the emergence of three major conceptual themes associated with behavior adoption: collectively applied…

Looking at the big picture: The importance of landbase interactions among forests, agriculture, and climate mitigation policies

Treesearch

Rhonda Mazza; Alig Ralph

2010-01-01

Land use change is a key part of global change. Deforestation, urban sprawl, agriculture, and other human influences have substantially altered natural ecosystems and fragmented the global landscape. Slowing down deforestation and afforesting environmentally sensitive agricultural land are important steps for mitigating climate change. Because no policy operates in a...

Engaging ranchers in market-based approaches to climate change mitigation: opportunities, challenges, and policy implications

Treesearch

Hannah Gosnell; Nicole Robinson-Maness; Susan Charnley

2011-01-01

Unsustainable rangeland management and land conversion are significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming; however, rangelands also can be managed to mitigate climate change by enhancing carbon uptake through increased plant production and biological sequestration. According to a 2000 USFS General Technical Report, there are opportunities to make...

U.S. landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

2003-01-01

Landowner behavior is a major determinant of land use and land cover changes. an important consideration for policy analysts concerned with global change. Study of landowner behavior aids in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change by reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Afforestation,...

Farm simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Process-level modeling at the farm scale provides a tool for evaluating both strategies for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for adapting to climate change. The Integrated Farm System Model (IFSM) simulates representative crop, beef or dairy farms over many years of weather to pred...

Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2012-12-01

Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a narrow range that does not necessarily signal low uncertainty but rather a reliance on similar animal statistics and emission factors. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects 2000-2030 growth rates of livestock for most developing countries at 2% to >3% annually. However, the assumption of rapidly rising meat consumption is not supported by current trends nor by resource availability. For example, increased meat consumption in China and other developing countries is poultry and pork that do not affect CH4 emissions, suggesting that the rapid growth projected for all animals, boosting growth in CH4 emission, will not occur. From a resource standpoint, large increases in cattle, sheep and goat populations, especially for African countries (~60% by 2030), are not supportable on arid grazing lands that require very low stocking rates and semi-nomadic management. Increases projected for African animal populations would require either that about 2/3 more animals are grazed on increasingly drier lands or that all non-forested areas become grazing lands. Similar to solid waste, future methane emission from ruminant animals is likely to grow modestly although animals are not a likely candidate for CH4 mitigation due to their dispersed distribution throughout widely varying agricultural systems under very local management.

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

PubMed Central

Sheffield, Perry E.; Knowlton, Kim; Carr, Jessie L.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2011-01-01

Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. PMID:21855738

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

PubMed

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Hornsey, Matthew J.; Bongiorno, Renata; Jeffries, Carla

2012-08-01

A sizeable (and growing) proportion of the public in Western democracies deny the existence of anthropogenic climate change. It is commonly assumed that convincing deniers that climate change is real is necessary for them to act pro-environmentally. However, the likelihood of `conversion' using scientific evidence is limited because these attitudes increasingly reflect ideological positions. An alternative approach is to identify outcomes of mitigation efforts that deniers find important. People have strong interests in the welfare of their society, so deniers may act in ways supporting mitigation efforts where they believe these efforts will have positive societal effects. In Study 1, climate change deniers (N=155) intended to act more pro-environmentally where they thought climate change action would create a society where people are more considerate and caring, and where there is greater economic/technological development. Study 2 (N=347) replicated this experimentally, showing that framing climate change action as increasing consideration for others, or improving economic/technological development, led to greater pro-environmental action intentions than a frame emphasizing avoiding the risks of climate change. To motivate deniers' pro-environmental actions, communication should focus on how mitigation efforts can promote a better society, rather than focusing on the reality of climate change and averting its risks.

Ecological assessment of a wetlands mitigation bank (Phase I: baseline ecological conditions and initial restoration efforts)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-08-01

The Tulula Wetlands Mitigation Bank, the first wetlands mitigation bank in the Blue Ridge Province of North Carolina, was created to compensate for losses resulting from highway projects in western North Carolina. The overall objective for the Tulula...

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being

PubMed Central

Sills, Erin O.; de Sassi, Claudio; Jagger, Pamela; Lawlor, Kathleen; Miteva, Daniela A.; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K.; Sunderlin, William D.

2018-01-01

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular areas for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high. PMID:29681690

Building the evidence base for REDD+: Study design and methods for evaluating the impacts of conservation interventions on local well-being.

PubMed

Sills, Erin O; de Sassi, Claudio; Jagger, Pamela; Lawlor, Kathleen; Miteva, Daniela A; Pattanayak, Subhrendu K; Sunderlin, William D

2017-03-01

Climate change mitigation in developing countries is increasingly expected to generate co-benefits that help meet sustainable development goals. This has been an expectation and a hotly contested issue in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) since its inception. While the core purpose of REDD+ is to reduce carbon emissions, its legitimacy and success also depend on its impacts on local well-being. To effectively safeguard against negative impacts, we need to know whether and which well-being outcomes can be attributed to REDD+. Yet, distinguishing the effects of choosing particular areas for REDD+ from the effects of the interventions themselves remains a challenge. The Global Comparative Study (GCS) on REDD+ employed a quasi-experimental before-after-control-intervention (BACI) study design to address this challenge and evaluate the impacts of 16 REDD+ pilots across the tropics. We find that the GCS approach allows identification of control groups that represent the counterfactual, thereby permitting attribution of outcomes to REDD+. The GCS experience belies many of the common critiques of the BACI design, especially concerns about collecting baseline data on control groups. Our findings encourage and validate the early planning and up-front investments required to evaluate the local impacts of global climate change mitigation efforts with confidence. The stakes are high, both for the global environment and for local populations directly affected by those efforts. The standards for evidence should be concomitantly high.

Linking molar organizational climate and strategic implementation climate to clinicians' use of evidence-based psychotherapy techniques: cross-sectional and lagged analyses from a 2-year observational study.

PubMed

Williams, Nathaniel J; Ehrhart, Mark G; Aarons, Gregory A; Marcus, Steven C; Beidas, Rinad S

2018-06-25

Behavioral health organizations are characterized by multiple organizational climates, including molar climate, which encompasses clinicians' shared perceptions of how the work environment impacts their personal well-being, and strategic implementation climate, which includes clinicians' shared perceptions of the extent to which evidence-based practice implementation is expected, supported, and rewarded by the organization. Theory suggests these climates have joint, cross-level effects on clinicians' implementation of evidence-based practice and that these effects may be long term (i.e., up to 2 years); however, no empirical studies have tested these relationships. We hypothesize that molar climate moderates implementation climate's concurrent and long-term relationships with clinicians' use of evidence-based practice such that strategic implementation climate will have its most positive effects when it is accompanied by a positive molar climate. Hypotheses were tested using data collected from 235 clinicians in 20 behavioral health organizations. At baseline, clinicians reported on molar climate and implementation climate. At baseline and at a 2-year follow-up, all clinicians who were present in the organizations reported on their use of cognitive-behavioral psychotherapy techniques, an evidence-based practice for youth psychiatric disorders. Two-level mixed-effects regression models tested whether baseline molar climate and implementation climate interacted in predicting clinicians' evidence-based practice use at baseline and at 2-year follow-up. In organizations with more positive molar climates at baseline, higher levels of implementation climate predicted increased evidence-based practice use among clinicians who were present at baseline and among clinicians who were present in the organizations at 2-year follow-up; however, in organizations with less positive molar climates, implementation climate was not related to clinicians' use of evidence-based practice at either time point. Optimizing clinicians' implementation of evidence-based practice in behavioral health requires attention to both molar climate and strategic implementation climate. Strategies that focus exclusively on implementation climate may not be effective levers for behavior change if the organization does not also engender a positive molar climate. These findings have implications for the development of implementation theory and effective implementation strategies.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture without compromising food security?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Havlík, Petr; Soussana, Jean-François; Levesque, Antoine; Valin, Hugo; Wollenberg, Eva; Kleinwechter, Ulrich; Fricko, Oliver; Gusti, Mykola; Herrero, Mario; Smith, Pete; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Kraxner, Florian; Obersteiner, Michael

2017-10-01

To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 °C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change, agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios. However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the implications of climate change mitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 °C, results indicate global food calorie losses ranging from 110-285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities. This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80-300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact significantly, however the 1.5 °C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement, as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to 20-75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils.

Natural resource mitigation, adaptation and research needs related to climate change in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hughson, Debra L.; Busch, David E.; Davis, Scott; Finn, Sean P.; Caicco, Steve; Verburg, Paul S.J.

2011-01-01

This report synthesizes the knowledge, opinions, and concerns of many Federal and State land managers, scientists, stakeholders, and partners from a workshop, held at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, on April 20-22, 2010. Land managers, research scientists, and resource specialists identified common concerns regarding the potential effects of climate change on public lands and natural resources in the Great Basin and Mojave Desert and developed recommendations for mitigation, adaptation, and research needs. Water and, conversely, the effects of drought emerged as a common theme in all breakout sessions on terrestrial and aquatic species at risk, managing across boundaries, monitoring, and ecosystem services. Climate change models for the southwestern deserts predict general warming and drying with increasing precipitation variability year to year. Scientists noted that under these changing conditions the past may no longer be a guide to the future in which managers envision increasing conflicts between human water uses and sustaining ecosystems. Increasing environmental stress also is expected as a consequence of shifting ecosystem boundaries and species distributions, expansion of non-native species, and decoupling of biotic mutualisms, leading to increasingly unstable biologic communities. Managers uniformly expressed a desire to work across management and agency boundaries at a landscape scale but conceded that conflicting agency missions and budgetary constraints often impede collaboration. More and better science is needed to cope with the effects of climate change but, perhaps even more important is the application of science to management issues using the methods of adaptive management based on long-term monitoring to assess the merits of management actions. Access to data is essential for science-based land management. Basic inventories, spatial databases, baseline condition assessments, data quality assurance, and data sharing were identified as top information priorities by all participants at this workshop. Optimizing the utility of ecosystem monitoring data will require standardizing monitoring protocols across agencies. Better communication among researchers and managers and cooperation through partnerships to manage resources across boundaries were emphasized as necessary for adapting to changing climatic conditions. However, even these strategies may be insufficient unless policy mandates, agency missions, and funding are coordinated at a high level.

Toward Robust Climate Baselining: Objective Assessment of Climate Change Using Widely Distributed Miniaturized Sensors for Accurate World-Wide Geophysical Measurements

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Marion, J.; Wood, L.

2001-11-13

A gap-free, world-wide, ocean-, atmosphere-, and land surface-spanning geophysical data-set of three decades time-duration containing the full set of geophysical parameters characterizing global weather is the scientific perquisite for defining the climate; the generally-accepted definition in the meteorological community is that climate is the 30-year running-average of weather. Until such a tridecadal climate baseline exists, climate change discussions inevitably will have a semi-speculative, vs. a purely scientific, character, as the baseline against which changes are referenced will at least somewhat uncertain.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning

PubMed Central

Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kyle, G. Page; Mueller, C.; Calvin, Katherine V.

This study assesses how climate impacts on agriculture may change the evolution of the agricultural and energy systems in meeting the end-of-century radiative forcing targets of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We build on the recently completed ISI-MIP exercise that has produced global gridded estimates of future crop yields for major agricultural crops using climate model projections of the RCPs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). For this study we use the bias-corrected outputs of the HadGEM2-ES climate model as inputs to the LPJmL crop growth model, and the outputs of LPJmL to modify inputs to themore » GCAM integrated assessment model. Our results indicate that agricultural climate impacts generally lead to an increase in global cropland, as compared with corresponding emissions scenarios that do not consider climate impacts on agricultural productivity. This is driven mostly by negative impacts on wheat, rice, other grains, and oil crops. Still, including agricultural climate impacts does not significantly increase the costs or change the technological strategies of global, whole-system emissions mitigation. In fact, to meet the most aggressive climate change mitigation target (2.6 W/m2 in 2100), the net mitigation costs are slightly lower when agricultural climate impacts are considered. Key contributing factors to these results are (a) low levels of climate change in the low-forcing scenarios, (b) adaptation to climate impacts, simulated in GCAM through inter-regional shifting in the production of agricultural goods, and (c) positive average climate impacts on bioenergy crop yields.« less

Modelling climate change effects on Atlantic salmon: Implications for mitigation in regulated rivers.

PubMed

Sundt-Hansen, L E; Hedger, R D; Ugedal, O; Diserud, O H; Finstad, A G; Sauterleute, J F; Tøfte, L; Alfredsen, K; Forseth, T

2018-08-01

Climate change is expected to alter future temperature and discharge regimes of rivers. These regimes have a strong influence on the life history of most aquatic river species, and are key variables controlling the growth and survival of Atlantic salmon. This study explores how the future abundance of Atlantic salmon may be influenced by climate-induced changes in water temperature and discharge in a regulated river, and investigates how negative impacts in the future can be mitigated by applying different regulated discharge regimes during critical periods for salmon survival. A spatially explicit individual-based model was used to predict juvenile Atlantic salmon population abundance in a regulated river under a range of future water temperature and discharge scenarios (derived from climate data predicted by the Hadley Centre's Global Climate Model (GCM) HadAm3H and the Max Plank Institute's GCM ECHAM4), which were then compared with populations predicted under control scenarios representing past conditions. Parr abundance decreased in all future scenarios compared to the control scenarios due to reduced wetted areas (with the effect depending on climate scenario, GCM, and GCM spatial domain). To examine the potential for mitigation of climate change-induced reductions in wetted area, simulations were run with specific minimum discharge regimes. An increase in abundance of both parr and smolt occurred with an increase in the limit of minimum permitted discharge for three of the four GCM/GCM spatial domains examined. This study shows that, in regulated rivers with upstream storage capacity, negative effects of climate change on Atlantic salmon populations can potentially be mitigated by release of water from reservoirs during critical periods for juvenile salmon. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Assessing the Benefits of Global Climate Stabilization Within an Integrated Modeling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, R. H.

2015-12-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been a number of studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry. However, relatively few studies explore climate change impacts on both agriculture and forests simultaneously, including the interactions between alternative land uses and implications for market outcomes. Additionally, there is a lack of detailed analyses of the effects of stabilization scenarios relative to unabated emissions scenarios. Such analyses are important for developing estimates of the benefits of those stabilization scenarios, which can play a vital role in assessing tradeoffs associated with allocating resources across alternative mitigation and adaptation activities. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Performance analysis of a GPS equipment by general linear models approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teodoro, M. Filomena; Gonçalves, Fernando M.; Correia, Anacleto

2017-06-01

One of the major challenges in processing high-accurate long baselines is the presence of un-modelled ionospheric and tropospheric delays. There are effective mitigation strategies for ionospheric biases, such as the ionosphere-free linear combination of L1 and L2 carrier-phase, which can remove about 98% of the first-order ionospheric biases. With few exceptions this was the solution found by LGO for the 11760 baselines processed in this research. Therefore, for successful results, the appropriated approach to the mitigation of biases due to tropospheric delays is vital. The main aim of the investigations presented in this work was to evaluate the improvements, or not, of the rate of baselines successfully produced by adopting an advanced tropospheric bias mitigation strategy as opposed to a sample tropospheric bias mitigation approach. In both cases LGO uses as a priori tropospheric model the simplified Hopfield model, improved in the first case with a zenith tropospheric scale factor per station. Being aware that 1D and 2D present different behaviors, both cases are analyzed individually with each strategy.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

2015-09-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

Geoengineering: An Idea Whose Time Has Come?

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.; Vallero, Daniel A.

2013-01-01

Some engineers and scientists recently have suggested that it would be prudent to consider engaging in geoengineering to mitigate global warming. Geoengineering differs from other methods for mitigating global warming because it involves a deliberate effort to affect the climate at a global scale. Although geoengineering is not a new idea, it has taken on added significance as a result of difficulties with implementing other proposals to mitigate climate change. While proponents of geoengineering admit that it can have significant risks for the environment and public health, many maintain that it is worth pursuing, given the failure of other means of mitigating global warming. Some environmental groups have voiced strong opposition to all forms of geoengineering. In this article, we examine arguments for and against geoengineering and discuss some policy options. We argue that specific geoengineering proposals should not be implemented until there is good evidence concerning their safety, efficacy, and feasibility, as well as a plan for oversight. International cooperation and public input should also be sought. Other methods for mitigating global warming should be aggressively pursued while geoengineering is under consideration. The promise of an engineering solution to global warming should not be used as an excuse to abandon or cut back current, climate mitigation efforts. PMID:23502911

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; ...

2017-03-28

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Moving beyond a knowledge deficit perspective to understand climate action by youth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, K. C.

2016-12-01

This presentation reports on an experiment testing two framings of uncertainty on students' intent to take action to mitigate climate change. Additionally, to explore possible mechanisms involved in the choice of taking mitigating action, several factors highlighted within behavior theory literature were measured to create a theoretical model for youth's choice to take mitigating action. The factors explored were: knowledge, certainty, affect, efficacy, and social norms. The experiment was conducted with 453 middle and high school students within the Bay Area. Findings indicated that these students did hold a basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change. They were worried and felt negatively about the topic. They felt somewhat efficacious about their personal ability to mitigate climate change. The students reported that they associated with people who were more likely to think climate change was real and caused by humans. Students also reported that they often take part in private pro-environmental behaviors such as using less electricity. When asked to respond freely to a question about what think about climate change, participants described the negative effects of human-caused climate change on Earth systems at the global scale and as a current phenomenon. The results of the experiment showed that while the text portraying climate change with high uncertainty did affect student's own certainty and their perception of scientists' certainty, it did not affect behavioral intention. This result can be explained through regression analysis. It was found that efficacy and social norms were direct determinants of pro-environmental behaviors. The cognitive variables - knowledge and certainty - and the psychological variable - affect - were not significant predictors of pro-environmental behavior. The implications for this study are that while students hold basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, this understanding lacks personal relevance. Another implication of this study is that if we wish to have action-taking as an outcome of climate change education efforts, then the learning activities should include components to address efficacy and social norms.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

2017-04-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomesmore » of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO 2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Finally, our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO 2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.« less

Avoiding an uncertain catastrophe: Climate change mitigation under risk and wealth heterogeneity

Treesearch

Thomas C. Brown; Stephan Kroll

2017-01-01

For environmental problems such as climate change, uncertainty about future conditions makes it difficult to know what the goal of mitigation efforts should be, and inequality among the affected parties makes it hard for them to know how much they each should do toward reaching the goal. We examine the effects of scientific uncertainty and wealth inequality in...

Engaging western landowners in climate change mitigation: a guide to carbon-oriented forest and range management and carbon market opportunities

Treesearch

David D. Diaz; Susan Charnley; Hannah Gosnell

2009-01-01

There are opportunities for forest owners and ranchers to participate in emerging carbon markets and contribute to climate change mitigation through carbon oriented forest and range management activities. These activities often promote sutainable forestry and ranching and broader conservation goals while having the potential to provide a new income stream for...

Mitigating climate change through small-scale forestry in the USA: opportunities and challenges

Treesearch

Susan Charnley; David Diaz; Hannah Gosnell

2010-01-01

Forest management for carbon sequestration is a low-cost, low-technology, relatively easy way to help mitigate global climate change that can be adopted now while additional long-term solutions are developed. Carbon-oriented management of forests also offers forest owners an opportunity to obtain a new source of income, and commonly has environmental co-benefits. The...

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications...

Public attention to science and political news and support for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, P. Sol; Nisbet, Erik C.; Myers, Teresa A.

2015-06-01

We examine how attention to science and political news may influence public knowledge, perceived harm, and support for climate mitigation policies. Previous research examining these relationships has not fully accounted for how political ideology shapes the mental processes through which the public interprets media discourses about climate change. We incorporate political ideology and the concept of motivated cognition into our analysis to compare and contrast two prominent models of opinion formation, the scientific literacy model, which posits that disseminating scientific information will move public opinion towards the scientific consensus, and the motivated reasoning model, which posits that individuals will interpret information in a biased manner. Our analysis finds support for both models of opinion formation with key differences across ideological groups. Attention to science news was associated with greater perceptions of harm and knowledge for conservatives, but only additional knowledge for liberals. Supporting the literacy model, greater knowledge was associated with more support for climate mitigation for liberals. In contrast, consistent with motivated reasoning, more knowledgeable conservatives were less supportive of mitigation policy. In addition, attention to political news had a negative association with perceived harm for conservatives but not for liberals.

Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2015-12-01

The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

Climate change and human health: Spatial modeling of water availability, malnutrition, and livelihoods in Mali, Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jankowska, Marta M.; Lopez-Carr, David; Funk, Chris; Husak, Gregory J.; Chafe, Z.A.

2012-01-01

This study develops a novel approach for projecting climate trends in the Sahel in relation to shifting livelihood zones and health outcomes. Focusing on Mali, we explore baseline relationships between temperature, precipitation, livelihood, and malnutrition in 407 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) clusters with a total of 14,238 children, resulting in a thorough spatial analysis of coupled climate-health dynamics. Results suggest links between livelihoods and each measure of malnutrition, as well as a link between climate and stunting. A ‘front-line’ of vulnerability, related to the transition between agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, is identified as an area where mitigation efforts might be usefully targeted. Additionally, climate is projected to 2025 for the Sahel, and demographic trends are introduced to explore how the intersection of climate and demographics may shift the vulnerability ‘front-line’, potentially exposing an additional 6 million people in Mali, up to a million of them children, to heightened risk of malnutrition from climate and livelihood changes. Results indicate that, holding constant morbidity levels, approximately one quarter of a million children will suffer stunting, nearly two hundred thousand will be malnourished, and over one hundred thousand will become anemic in this expanding arid zone by 2025. Climate and health research conducted at finer spatial scales and within shorter projected time lines can identify vulnerability hot spots that are of the highest priority for adaptation interventions; such an analysis can also identify areas with similar characteristics that may be at heightened risk. Such meso-scale coupled human-environment research may facilitate appropriate policy interventions strategically located beyond today’s vulnerability front-line.

Modeling nexus of urban heat island mitigation strategies with electricity/power usage and consumer costs: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Humberto; Fillpot, Baron S.

2018-01-01

A reduction in both power and electricity usage was determined using a previously validated zero-dimensional energy balance model that implements mitigation strategies used to reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The established model has been applied to show the change in urban characteristic temperature when executing four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. Separately, a correlation analysis was performed involving meteorological data and total daily energy (TDE) consumption where the 24-h average temperature was shown to have the greatest correlation to electricity service data in the Phoenix, Arizona, USA, metropolitan region. A methodology was then developed for using the model to predict TDE consumption reduction and corresponding cost-saving analysis when implementing the four mitigation strategies. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to the largest percent reduction in annual energy usage, where increasing the thermal conductivity is the single most effective mitigation strategy. The single least effective mitigation strategy, increasing the emissivity by 5% from the baseline value, resulted in an average calculated reduction of about 1570 GWh in yearly energy usage with a corresponding 157 million dollar cost savings. When the four parameters were increased in unison by 20% from baseline values, an average calculated reduction of about 2050 GWh in yearly energy usage was predicted with a corresponding 205 million dollar cost savings.

Mitigation of climate change impacts on raptors by behavioural adaptation: ecological buffering mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wichmann, Matthias C.; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Jeltsch, Florian; Grimm, Volker

2005-07-01

The predicted climate change causes deep concerns on the effects of increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns on species viability and, in turn, on biodiversity. Models of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) provide a powerful tool to assess the risk of species extinction. However, most PVA models do not take into account the potential effects of behavioural adaptations. Organisms might adapt to new environmental situations and thereby mitigate negative effects of climate change. To demonstrate such mitigation effects, we use an existing PVA model describing a population of the tawny eagle ( Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari. This model does not include behavioural adaptations. We develop a new model by assuming that the birds enlarge their average territory size to compensate for lower amounts of precipitation. Here, we found the predicted increase in risk of extinction due to climate change to be much lower than in the original model. However, this "buffering" of climate change by behavioural adaptation is not very effective in coping with increasing interannual variances. We refer to further examples of ecological "buffering mechanisms" from the literature and argue that possible buffering mechanisms should be given due consideration when the effects of climate change on biodiversity are to be predicted.

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.

PubMed

Vainio, Annukka; Paloniemi, Riikka; Varho, Vilja

2017-03-01

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO 2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; McMichael, Anthony J; Smith, Kirk R; Roberts, Ian; Woodcock, James; Markandya, Anil; Armstrong, Ben G; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Dangour, Alan D; Davies, Michael; Bruce, Nigel; Tonne, Cathryn; Barrett, Mark; Wilkinson, Paul

2009-12-19

This Series has examined the health implications of policies aimed at tackling climate change. Assessments of mitigation strategies in four domains-household energy, transport, food and agriculture, and electricity generation-suggest an important message: that actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions often, although not always, entail net benefits for health. In some cases, the potential benefits seem to be substantial. This evidence provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Climate change is an increasing and evolving threat to the health of populations worldwide. At the same time, major public health burdens remain in many regions. Climate change therefore adds further urgency to the task of addressing international health priorities, such as the UN Millennium Development Goals. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of policy choices that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Walsh, Michael; Anenberg, Susan C.; VanDingen, Rita; Muller, Nicholas Z.; Austin, Jeff; Koch, Dorothy; Milly, George

2011-01-01

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Trust in climate scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gauchat, Gordon

2018-06-01

Those who distrust climate scientists are more likely to be skeptical of climate change and reluctant to support mitigation policies. Now research shows that scientific interest in early adolescence is associated with increased trust in climate scientists in adulthood irrespective of political ideology.

Politics of climate change belief

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2017-01-01

Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

Quantification of mitigation potentials of agricultural practices for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesschen, J. P.; Kuikman, P. J.; Smith, P.; Schils, R. L.; Oudendag, D.

2009-04-01

Agriculture has a significant impact on climate, with a commonly estimated contribution of 9% of total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Besides, agriculture is the main source of nitrous oxide and methane emissions to the atmosphere. On the other hand, there is a large potential for climate change mitigation in agriculture through carbon sequestration into soils. Within the framework of the PICCMAT project (Policy Incentives for Climate Change Mitigation Agricultural Techniques) we quantified the mitigation potential of 11 agricultural practices at regional level for the EU. The focus was on smaller-scale measures towards optimised land management that can be widely applied at individual farm level and which can have a positive climate change mitigating effect and be beneficial to soil conditions, e.g. cover crops and reduced tillage. The mitigation potentials were assessed with the MITERRA-Europe model, a deterministic and static N cycling model which calculates N emissions on an annual basis, using N emission factors and N leaching fractions. For the PICCMAT project the model was extended with a soil carbon module, to assess changes in soil organic carbon according to the IPCC Tier1 approach. The amount of soil organic carbon (SOC) is calculated by multiplying the soil reference carbon content, which depends on soil type and climate, by coefficients for land use, land management and input of organic matter. By adapting these coefficients changes in SOC as result of the measures were simulated. We considered both the extent of agricultural area across Europe on which a measure could realistically be applied (potential level of implementation), and the current level of implementation that has already been achieved . The results showed that zero tillage has the highest mitigation potential, followed by adding legumes, reduced tillage, residue management, rotation species, and catch crops. Optimising fertiliser application and fertiliser type are the measures with the largest positive effect on N2O emissions. Overall the results showed that the additional mitigation potential of each individual measure is limited, but taken together they have a significant mitigation potential of about 10 percent of the current GHG emissions from agriculture. Besides, most of the measures with high mitigation potentials are associated with no or low implementation costs. Although CH4 and N2O are the most important GHG emitted from agricultural activities, it is more difficult to mitigate these emissions than increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and thus compensate them through carbon sequestration. However, the effect on carbon is only temporary and sequestered SOC stocks can easily be lost again, while for N2O the emission reduction is permanent and non-saturating. Another important implication that follows from our results is the large regional difference with regard to mitigation potential and feasibility of implementation. Policy measures to support agricultural mitigation should therefore be adjusted to regional conditions.

Evaluating options for U.S. greenhouse-gas mitigation using multiple criteria

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

Choosing a set of policy responses to mitigate greenhouse gases (GHGs) responsible for climate change is one of the great challenges that the United States faces in the coming years. This paper develops a framework for evaluating GHG-mitigation polic...

[Peru, climate change and non-communicable diseases: ¿where are we and where are we headed?].

PubMed

Avilez, José L; Bazalar, Janina; Azañedo, Diego; Miranda, J Jaime

2016-03-01

The world is facing a crisis of noncommunicable diseases alongside a state of climate volatility. Of the total health burden attributable to climate change, 99% will be assumed by developing countries. In light of climate change, Peru's best opportunity is to create mitigation and adaptation policies focused on developing health co-benefits, which will improve the state of noncommunicable diseases and the climate system. This article presents Peru's compromises in terms of mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions; identifies public health opportunities for Peru under the Paris Agreement signed in the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21); and makes recommendations for evidence and policy generation for the National Academy of Medicine and the Peruvian government.

A Coupled Economic and Physical Model of Coastal Adaptation and Abandonment: Are human occupied coastlines a bubble waiting to burst?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D.; Keeler, A.

2011-12-01

Policy discussions of adaptation by coastal residents to increasing rates of sea level rise and changing frequency of damaging storms have focused on community land use planning processes. This view neglects the role that market dynamics and climate change expectations play in the way coastal communities choose among risk mitigation options and manage land use decisions in an environment of escalating risks. We use a model coupling physical coastal processes with an agent-based model of behavior in real estate and mitigation markets to examine the interplay of climate-driven coastal hazards, collective mitigation decisions, and individual beliefs. The physical component model simulates barrier island processes that respond to both storms and slow scale dynamics associated with sea level rise. The economic component model is an agent-based model of economic behavior where agents are rational economic actors working off different assessments of future climate-driven events. Agents differentially update their beliefs based on a) how much emphasis they give to observed coastal changes and b) how much weight they give to scientific predictions. In essence, agents differ along a spectrum of how much they believe that the past is the best guide to the future and how quickly they react to new information. We use the coupled model to explore three questions of interest to coastal policy. First, how do the interplay of costal processes, beliefs, and mitigation choices affect the level and stability of real estate prices? Second, how does this interplay affect the incentives for community investments in shoreline protection? Third, how do expectations and reactions to observed events, as well as mitigation investments, affect the built environment in circumstances when climate risks reach very high levels? This last question relates to a key aspect of climate change adaptation on the coast - when does mitigation give way to abandonment as an optimal adaptation strategy? Results suggest that subjective expectations about climate risk and about the effectiveness of mitigation in high-risk environments are critical in determining when the market starts to reflect the possibility that property might no longer be inhabitable. Results will be presented that contrast the dynamics of abandonment over a range of sea level rise and storminess scenarios.

Introduction of Energy and Climate Mitigation Policy Issues in Energy - Environment Model of Latvia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klavs, G.; Rekis, J.

2016-12-01

The present research is aimed at contributing to the Latvian national climate policy development by projecting total GHG emissions up to 2030, by evaluating the GHG emission reduction path in the non-ETS sector at different targets set for emissions reduction and by evaluating the obtained results within the context of the obligations defined by the EU 2030 policy framework for climate and energy. The method used in the research was bottom-up, linear programming optimisation model MARKAL code adapted as the MARKAL-Latvia model with improvements for perfecting the integrated assessment of climate policy. The modelling results in the baseline scenario, reflecting national economic development forecasts and comprising the existing GHG emissions reduction policies and measures, show that in 2030 emissions will increase by 19.1 % compared to 2005. GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030, compared to 2005, were researched in respective alternative scenarios. Detailed modelling and analysis of the Latvian situation according to the scenario of non-ETS sector GHG emissions stabilisation and reduction in 2030 compared to 2005 have revealed that to implement a cost effective strategy of GHG emissions reduction first of all a policy should be developed that ensures effective absorption of the available energy efficiency potential in all consumer sectors. The next group of emissions reduction measures includes all non-ETS sectors (industry, services, agriculture, transport, and waste management).

Methane mitigation shows significant benefits towards achieving the 1.5 degree target.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, W.; Webber, C.; Cox, P. M.; Huntingford, C.; Lowe, J. A.; Sitch, S.

2017-12-01

Most analyses of allowable carbon emissions to achieve the 1.5 degree target implicitly assume that the ratio of CO2 to non-CO2 greenhouse gases remains near constant, and that all radiative forcing factors have similar impacts on land and ocean carbon storage. Here we determine how plausible reductions in methane emissions will make the carbon targets more feasible. We account for the latest estimates of the methane radiative effect as well as the indirect effects of methane on ozone. We particularly address the differing effects of methane and CO2 mitigation on the land carbon storage including via reduced concentrations of surface ozone. The methodology uses an intermediate complexity climate model (IMOGEN) coupled to a land surface model (JULES) which represents the details of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The carbon emissions inputs to IMOGEN are varied to find allowable pathways consistent with the Paris 1.5 K or 2.0 K targets. The IMOGEN physical parameters are altered to represent the climate characteristics of 38 CMIP5 models (such as climate sensitivity) to provide bounds on the range of allowable CO2 emissions. We examine the effects of three different methane mitigation options that are broadly consistent with the ranges in the SSP scenarios: little mitigation, cost-optimal mitigation, and maximal mitigation. The land and ocean carbon storage increases with methane mitigation, allowing more flexibility in CO2 emission reduction. This is mostly since CO2 fertilisation is reduced less with high methane mitigation, with a small contribution from reduced plant damage with lower surface ozone levels.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

PubMed

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

RFI Mitigation and Testing Employed at GGAO for NASA's Space Geodesy Project (SGP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hilliard, Lawrence M.; Rajagopalan, Ganesh; Stevenson, Thomas; Turner, Charles; Bulcha, Berhanu

2017-01-01

Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) Mitigation at Goddard Geophysical and Astronomical Observatory (GGAO) has been addressed in three different ways by NASA's Space Geodesy Project (SGP); masks, blockers, and filters. All of these techniques will be employed at the GGAO, to mitigate the RFI consequences to the Very Long Baseline Interferometer.

USDA Southwest climate hub for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The USDA Southwest (SW) Climate Hub was created in February 2014 to develop risk adaptation and mitigation strategies for coping with climate change effects on agricultural productivity. There are seven regional hubs across the country with three subsidiary hubs. The SW Climate Hub Region is made up...

LAND USE AS A MITIGATION STRATEGY FOR THE WATER QUALITY IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING: A SCENARIO ANALYSIS ON TWO WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN

EPA Science Inventory

This study uses an integrative approach to study the water quality impacts of future global climate and land use changes. In this study, changing land use types were used as a mitigation strategy to reduce the adverse impacts of global climate change on water resources. The Thorn...

Projected US timber and primary forest product market impacts of climate change mitigation through timber set-asides

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2013-01-01

Whereas climate change mitigation involving payments to forest landowners for accumulating carbon on their land may increase carbon stored in forests, it will also affect timber supply and prices. This study estimated the effect on US timber and primary forest product markets of hypothetical timber set-aside scenarios where US forest landowners would be paid to forego...

Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-04-01

The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical, future energy demand, and mitigation technology uncertainties. This information provides central information for policy making, since it helps to understand the relationship between mitigation costs and their potential to reduce the risk of exceeding 2°C, or other temperature limits like 3°C or 1.5°C, under a wide range of scenarios.

Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Yenan; Zhong, Ping-an; Xu, Bin; Zhu, Feilin; Fu, Jisi

2017-06-01

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960-2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001-2010) and the predicting period (2011-2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.

THE INFLUENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATIONS AND APPLICATIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY: INTRODUCTION TO A SETAC INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

PubMed Central

Stahl, Ralph G; Hooper, Michael J; Balbus, John M; Clements, William; Fritz, Alyce; Gouin, Todd; Helm, Roger; Hickey, Christopher; Landis, Wayne; Moe, S Jannicke

2013-01-01

This is the first of seven papers resulting from a Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) international workshop titled “The Influence of Global Climate Change on the Scientific Foundations and Applications of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry.” The workshop involved 36 scientists from 11 countries and was designed to answer the following question: How will global climate change influence the environmental impacts of chemicals and other stressors and the way we assess and manage them in the environment? While more detail is found in the complete series of articles, some key consensus points are as follows: (1) human actions (including mitigation of and adaptation to impacts of global climate change [GCC]) may have as much influence on the fate and distribution of chemical contaminants as does GCC, and modeled predictions should be interpreted cautiously; (2) climate change can affect the toxicity of chemicals, but chemicals can also affect how organisms acclimate to climate change; (3) effects of GCC may be slow, variable, and difficult to detect, though some populations and communities of high vulnerability may exhibit responses sooner and more dramatically than others; (4) future approaches to human and ecological risk assessments will need to incorporate multiple stressors and cumulative risks considering the wide spectrum of potential impacts stemming from GCC; and (5) baseline/reference conditions for estimating resource injury and restoration/rehabilitation will continually shift due to GCC and represent significant challenges to practitioners. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:13–19. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23097130

Mitigation win-win

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moran, Dominic; Lucas, Amanda; Barnes, Andrew

2013-07-01

Win-win messages regarding climate change mitigation policies in agriculture tend to oversimplify farmer motivation. Contributions from psychology, cultural evolution and behavioural economics should help to design more effective policy.

SLICEIT and TAHMO Partnerships: Students Local and International Collaboration for Climate and Environmental Monitoring, Technology Development, Education, Adaptation and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aishlin, P. S.; Selker, J. S.

2015-12-01

Climate change understanding and impacts vary by community, yet the global nature of climate change requires international collaboration to address education, monitoring, adaptation and mitigation needs. We propose that effective climate change monitoring and education can be accomplished via student-led local and international community partnerships. By empowering students as community leaders in climate-environmental monitoring and education, as well as exploration of adaptation/mitigation needs, well-informed communities and young leadership are developed to support climate change science moving forward. Piloted 2013-2015, the SLICEIT1 program partnered with TAHMO2 to connect student leaders in North America, Europe and Africa. At the international level, schools in the U.S.A and Netherlands were partnered with schools in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda for science and cultural exchange. Each school was equipped with a climate or other environmental sensing system, real-time data publication and curricula for both formal and informal science, technology, engineering and math education and skill development. African counterparts in TAHMO's School-2-School program collect critically important data for enhanced on-the-ground monitoring of weather conditions in data-scarce regions of Africa. In Idaho, student designed, constructed and installed weather stations provide real time data for classroom and community use. Student-designed formal educational activities are disseminated to project partners, increasing hands-on technology education and peer-based learning. At the local level, schools are partnered with a local agency, research institute, nonprofit organization, industry and/or community partner that supplies a climate science expert mentor to SLICEIT program leaders and teachers. Mentor engagement is facilitated and secured by program components that directly benefit the mentor's organization and local community via climate/environment monitoring, student workforce skill development, community education, and/or adaptation/mitigation activities. Students are motivated by advanced real-world skill development, leadership opportunity, internship, community service and opportunity for international peer communication.

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jagge, Amy

2016-01-01

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

PubMed

Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

2012-03-01

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

Review of Mitigation Costs for Stabilizing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Ruijven, B. J.; O'Neill, B. C.

2014-12-01

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid future climate change comes at a cost, because low-emission technologies are more expensive than GHG-emitting technology options. The increase in mitigation cost is not linearly related to the stabilization level, though: the first emission reductions are relatively cheap, but deeper emission reductions become more expensive. Therefore, emission reduction to medium levels of GHG concentrations , such as 4.5 or 6 W/m2, is considerably cheaper than emission reduction to low levels of GHG concentrations, such as 2.6 or 3.7 W/m2. Moreover, mitigation costs are influenced by many other aspects than the targeted mitigation level alone, such as whether or not certain technologies are available or societally acceptable (Kriegler et al., 2014); the rate of technological progress and cost reduction of low-emission technologies; the level of final energy demand (Riahi et al., 2011), and the level of global cooperation and trade in emission allowances (den Elzen and Höhne, 2010). This paper reviews the existing literature on greenhouse gas mitigation costs. We analyze the available data on mitigation costs and draw conclusions on how these change for different stabilization levels of GHG concentrations. We will take into account the aspects of technology, energy demand, and cooperation in distinguishing differences between scenarios and stabilization levels. References: den Elzen, M., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2C. Climate Policy 10, 247-260. Kriegler, E., Weyant, J., Blanford, G., Krey, V., Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Fawcett, A., Luderer, G., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., Tavoni, M., Vuuren, D., 2014. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Climatic Change, 1-15. Riahi, K., Dentener, F., Gielen, D., Grubler, A., Jewell, J., Klimont, Z., Krey, V., McCollum, D., Pachauri, S., Rao, S., van Ruijven, B., van Vuuren, D.P., Wilson, C., 2011. Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development, The Global Energy Assessment: Toward a More Sustainable Future. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria and Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.

Enhancing the Global Carbon Sink: A Key Mitigation Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torn, M. S.

2016-12-01

Earth's terrestrial ecosystems absorb about one-third of all anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the atmosphere each year, greatly reducing the climate forcing those emissions would otherwise cause. This puts the size of the terrestrial carbon sink on par with the most aggressive climate mitigation measures proposed. Moreover, the land sink has been keeping pace with rising emissions and has roughly doubled over the past 40 years. But there is a fundamental lack of understanding of why the sink has been increasing and what its future trajectory could be. In developing climate mitigation strategies, governments have a very limited scientific basis for projecting the contributions of their domestic sinks, and yet at least 117 of the 160 COP21 signatories stated they will use the land sink in their Nationally Defined Contribution (NDC). Given its potentially critical role in reducing net emissions and the importance of UNFCCC land sinks in future mitigation scenarios, a first-principles understanding of the dynamics of the land sink is needed. For expansion of the sink, new approaches and ecologically-sound technologies are needed. Carefully conceived terrestrial carbon sequestration could have multiple environmental benefits, but a massive expansion of land carbon sinks using conventional approaches could place excessive demands on the world's land, water, and fertilizer nutrients. Meanwhile, rapid climatic change threatens to undermine or reverse the sink in many ecosystems. We need approaches to protect the large sinks that are currently assumed useful for climate mitigation. Thus we highlight the need for a new research agenda aimed at predicting, protecting, and enhancing the global carbon sink. Key aspects of this agenda include building a predictive capability founded on observations, theory and models, and developing ecological approaches and technologies that are sustainable and scalable, and potentially provide co-benefits such as healthier soils, more resilient and productive ecosystems, and more carbon-neutral bioenergy. Better scientific understanding of the sink provides more options for policy design, enables mitigation strategies that capture co-benefits, and increases the chances that global mitigation commitments will be met.

Dam Construction in Lancang-Mekong River Basin Could Mitigate Future Flood Risk From Warming-Induced Intensified Rainfall: Dam Mitigate Flood Risk in Mekong

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Ruby Leung, L.

Water resources management, in particular flood control, in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) faces two key challenges in the 21st century: climate change and dam construction. A large scale distributed Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model coupled with a simple reservoir regulation model (GBHM-MK-SOP) is used to investigate the relative effects of climate change and dam construction on the flood characteristics in the MRB. Results suggest an increase in both flood magnitude and frequency under climate change, which is more severe in the upstream basin and increases over time. However, dam construction and stream regulation reduce flood risk consistently throughout this century, withmore » more obvious effects in the upstream basin where larger reservoirs will be located. The flood mitigation effect of dam regulation dominates over the flood intensification effect of climate change before 2060, but the latter emerges more prominently after 2060 and dominates the flood risk especially in the lower basin.« less

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

PubMed

Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

2014-01-01

Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sustainable biochar to mitigate global climate change

PubMed Central

Woolf, Dominic; Amonette, James E.; Street-Perrott, F. Alayne; Lehmann, Johannes; Joseph, Stephen

2010-01-01

Production of biochar (the carbon (C)-rich solid formed by pyrolysis of biomass) and its storage in soils have been suggested as a means of abating climate change by sequestering carbon, while simultaneously providing energy and increasing crop yields. Substantial uncertainties exist, however, regarding the impact, capacity and sustainability of biochar at the global level. In this paper we estimate the maximum sustainable technical potential of biochar to mitigate climate change. Annual net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide could be reduced by a maximum of 1.8 Pg CO2-C equivalent (CO2-Ce) per year (12% of current anthropogenic CO2-Ce emissions; 1 Pg=1 Gt), and total net emissions over the course of a century by 130 Pg CO2-Ce, without endangering food security, habitat or soil conservation. Biochar has a larger climate-change mitigation potential than combustion of the same sustainably procured biomass for bioenergy, except when fertile soils are amended while coal is the fuel being offset. PMID:20975722

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) Report : Grand Coulee Dam Mitigation, 1996-1999 Technical Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kieffer, B.; Singer, Kelly; Abrahamson, Twa-le

1999-07-01

The purpose of this Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) study was to determine baseline habitat units and to estimate future habitat units for Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) mitigation projects on the Spokane Indian Reservation. The mitigation between BPA and the Spokane Tribe of Indians (STOI) is for wildlife habitat losses on account of the construction of Grand Coulee Dam. Analysis of the HEP survey data will assist in mitigation crediting and appropriate management of the mitigation lands.

Reducing nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate climate change and protect the ozone layer.

PubMed

Li, Li; Xu, Jianhua; Hu, Jianxin; Han, Jiarui

2014-05-06

Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions offers the combined benefits of mitigating climate change and protecting the ozone layer. This study estimates historical and future N2O emissions and explores the mitigation potential for China's chemical industry. The results show that (1) from 1990 to 2012, industrial N2O emissions in China grew by some 37-fold from 5.07 to 174 Gg (N2O), with total accumulated emissions of 1.26 Tg, and (2) from 2012 to 2020, the projected emissions are expected to continue growing rapidly from 174 to 561 Gg under current policies and assuming no additional mitigation measures. The total accumulated mitigation potential for this forecast period is about 1.54 Tg, the equivalent of reducing all the 2011 greenhouse gases from Australia or halocarbon ozone-depleting substances from China. Adipic acid production, the major industrial emission source, contributes nearly 80% of the industrial N2O emissions, and represents about 96.2% of the industrial mitigation potential. However, the mitigation will not happen without implementing effective policies and regulatory programs.

Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices.more » The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.« less

Changing feedbacks in the climate-biosphere system

Treesearch

F. Stuart Chapin; James T. Randerson; A. David McGuire; Jonathan A. Foley; Christopher B. Field

2008-01-01

Ecosystems influence climate through multiple pathways, primarily by changing the energy, water, and greenhouse-gas balance of the atmosphere. Consequently, efforts to mitigate climate change through modification of one pathway, as with carbon in the Kyoto Protocol, only partially address the issue of ecosystem-climate interactions. For example, the cooling of climate...

Communicating the Urgency of Climate Change to Local Government Policy Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, A.

2004-12-01

What are the challenges and obstacles in conveying scientific research and uncertainties about climate change to local government policy makers? What information do scientists need from local government practitioners to guide research efforts into producing more relevant information for the local government audience? What works and what doesn't in terms of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences? Based on over a decade of experience working with local governments around the world on greenhouse gas mitigation, ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability has developed a unique perspective and valuable insight into effective communication on climate science that motivates policy action. In the United States practical actions necessary to mitigate global climate change occur largely at the local level. As the level of government closest to individual energy consumers, local governments play a large role in determining the energy intensity of communities. How can local governments be persuaded to make greenhouse gas mitigation a policy priority over the long-term? Access to relevant information is critical to achieving that commitment. Information that will persuade local officials to pursue climate protection commitments includes specific impacts of global warming to communities, the costs of adaptation versus mitigation, and the potential benefits of implementing greenhouse gas-reducing initiatives. The manner in which information is conveyed is also critically important. The scientific community is loath to advocate for specific policies, or to make determinate statements on topics for which research is ongoing. These communication hurdles can be overcome if the needs of local policy practitioners can be understood by the scientific community, and research goals can be cooperatively defined.

REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

PubMed

Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

2016-05-01

Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students worked at renewable energy internships during the summer of 2012. We propose that these pilot projects be implemented on regional and national scales. The relative cost and carbon footprint to organize this effort could be kept to a minimum by leveraging established storm spotter programs at NOAA's 122 Weather Service Offices and existing outreach programs at NOAA's 18 Cooperative Institutes.

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, Margaret M.; Fleming, Eric L.; Newman, Paul A.; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2017-01-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90 of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Early Action on HFCs Mitigates Future Atmospheric Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurwitz, Margaret; Fleming, Eric; Newman, Paul; Li, Feng; Liang, Qing

2017-04-01

As countries take action to mitigate global warming, both by ratifying the UNFCCC Paris Agreement and enacting the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to manage hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), it is important to consider the relative importance of the pertinent greenhouse gases (GHGs), the distinct structure of their atmospheric impacts, and how the timing of potential GHG regulations would affect future changes in atmospheric temperature and ozone. Chemistry-climate model simulations demonstrate that HFCs could contribute substantially to anthropogenic climate change by the mid-21st century, particularly in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere i.e., global average warming up to 0.19K at 80hPa. Three HFC mitigation scenarios demonstrate the benefits of taking early action in avoiding future atmospheric change: more than 90% of the climate change impacts of HFCs can be avoided if emissions stop by 2030.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions.

PubMed

Tang, Ying; Winkler, Julie A; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution.

Uncertainty of future projections of species distributions in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Tang, Ying; Viña, Andrés; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Yuanbin; Zhang, Xiaofeng; Li, Xiaohong; Wang, Fang; Zhang, Jindong; Zhao, Zhiqiang

2018-01-01

Multiple factors introduce uncertainty into projections of species distributions under climate change. The uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information used to calibrate a species distribution model and to downscale global climate model (GCM) simulations to a finer spatial resolution is a particular concern for mountainous regions, as the spatial resolution of climate observing networks is often insufficient to detect the steep climatic gradients in these areas. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework together with occurrence data on 21 understory bamboo species distributed across the mountainous geographic range of the Giant Panda, we examined the differences in projected species distributions obtained from two contrasting sources of baseline climate information, one derived from spatial interpolation of coarse-scale station observations and the other derived from fine-spatial resolution satellite measurements. For each bamboo species, the MaxEnt model was calibrated separately for the two datasets and applied to 17 GCM simulations downscaled using the delta method. Greater differences in the projected spatial distributions of the bamboo species were observed for the models calibrated using the different baseline datasets than between the different downscaled GCM simulations for the same calibration. In terms of the projected future climatically-suitable area by species, quantification using a multi-factor analysis of variance suggested that the sum of the variance explained by the baseline climate dataset used for model calibration and the interaction between the baseline climate data and the GCM simulation via downscaling accounted for, on average, 40% of the total variation among the future projections. Our analyses illustrate that the combined use of gridded datasets developed from station observations and satellite measurements can help estimate the uncertainty introduced by the choice of baseline climate information to the projected changes in species distribution. PMID:29320501

Constraints on biomass energy deployment in mitigation pathways: the case of water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Séférian, Roland; Rocher, Matthias; Guivarch, Céline; Colin, Jeanne

2018-05-01

To limit global warming to well below 2 ° most of the IPCC-WGIII future stringent mitigation pathways feature a massive global-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) before the end of the century. The global-scale deployment of NETs like Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) can be hampered by climate constraints that are not taken into account by Integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to produce those pathways. Among the various climate constraints, water scarcity appears as a potential bottleneck for future land-based mitigation strategies and remains largely unexplored. Here, we assess climate constraints relative to water scarcity in response to the global deployment of BECCS. To this end, we confront results from an Earth system model (ESM) and an IAM under an array of 25 stringent mitigation pathways. These pathways are compatible with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and with cumulative carbon emissions ranging from 230 Pg C and 300 Pg C from January 1st onwards. We show that all stylized mitigation pathways studied in this work limit warming below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C by 2100 but all exhibit a temperature overshoot exceeding 2 °C after 2050. According to the IAM, a subset of 17 emission pathways are feasible when evaluated in terms of socio-economic and technological constraints. The ESM however shows that water scarcity would limit the deployment of BECCS in all the mitigation pathways assessed in this work. Our findings suggest that the evolution of the water resources under climate change can exert a significant constraint on BECCS deployment before 2050. In 2100, the BECCS water needs could represent more than 30% of the total precipitation in several regions like Europe or Asia.

Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

2017-09-01

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

Understanding the contribution of non-carbon dioxide gases in deep mitigation scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gernaat, David; Calvin, Katherine V.; Lucas, Paul

2015-07-01

The combined 2010 emissions of methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and the fluorinated gasses (F-gas) account for about 20-30% of total emissions and about 30% of radiative forcing. At the moment, most studies looking at reaching ambitious climate targets project the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to be reduced to zero (or less) by the end of the century. As for non-CO2 gases, the mitigation potential seem to be more constrained, we find that by the end of the century in the current deep mitigation scenarios non-CO2 emissions could form the lion’s share of remaining greenhouse gas emissions. In ordermore » to support effective climate policy strategies, in this paper we provide a more in-depth look at the role of non-CO2¬ emission sources (CH4, N2O and F-gases) in achieving deep mitigation targets (radiative forcing target of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100). Specifically, we look at the sectorial mitigation potential and the remaining non-CO2 emissions. By including a set of different models, we provide some insights into the associated uncertainty. Most of the remaining methane emissions in 2100 in the climate mitigation scenario come from the livestock sector. Strong reductions are seen in the energy supply sector across all models. For N2O, less reduction potential is seen compared to methane and the sectoral differences are larger between the models. The paper shows that the assumptions on remaining non-CO2 emissions are critical for the feasibility of reaching ambitious climate targets and the associated costs.« less

Mitigating and Tracking Black Carbon Exposure at Schools in the Mountain View Corridor of Salt Lake City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, P. T.; Brown, S. G.; Vaughn, D.; DeWinter, J. L.

2015-12-01

Black carbon (BC) is a short lived climate forcer and is associated with human health effects. We measured BC inside and outside at four schools in Salt Lake City during two studies in 2011-2014. In addition, PM2.5 was measured indoor and outdoor at one school, and gaseous air toxics outdoor at one school. The schools are within 500 m of a planned major freeway, and two of them will adjoin the freeway. The objectives included determining the outdoor and indoor concentrations of BC, the likely sources of BC, and once the freeway is built, the change in ambient BC at the schools. We determined the current state of air quality outdoors at these schools, to provide baseline data for comparison when the major freeway is operational, and indoors as a baseline before installing improved filtration to reduce BC in classrooms. Using MATES IV cancer risk values, we found that diesel particulate matter, as indicated by ambient, outdoor BC measurements, was responsible for 84% of the cancer risk at the schools. The HVAC system was moderately effective at filtrating PM mass (73% reduction), but very poor at filtering BC (7%-34% reduction), indicating that air toxics risk is similar indoors and outdoors. Improved filtration devices could potentially mitigate this risk, and improved filtration systems have been recommended for the schools. Lastly, we used the difference in absorption at two Aethalometer channels to determine that the majority of BC (> 90%) during the spring through fall is from fossil fuel emissions.

Genomic signals of selection predict climate-driven population declines in a migratory bird.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Harrigan, Ryan J; Underwood, Vinh Le; Gibbs, H Lisle; Smith, Thomas B; Ruegg, Kristen

2018-01-05

The ongoing loss of biodiversity caused by rapid climatic shifts requires accurate models for predicting species' responses. Despite evidence that evolutionary adaptation could mitigate climate change impacts, evolution is rarely integrated into predictive models. Integrating population genomics and environmental data, we identified genomic variation associated with climate across the breeding range of the migratory songbird, yellow warbler ( Setophaga petechia ). Populations requiring the greatest shifts in allele frequencies to keep pace with future climate change have experienced the largest population declines, suggesting that failure to adapt may have already negatively affected populations. Broadly, our study suggests that the integration of genomic adaptation can increase the accuracy of future species distribution models and ultimately guide more effective mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2018, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

The idiosyncrasies of streams: local variability mitigates vulnerability of trout to changing conditions

Treesearch

Andrea Watts; Brooke Penaluna; Jason Dunham

2016-01-01

Land use and climate change are two key factors with the potential to affect stream conditions and fish habitat. Since the 1950s, Washington and Oregon have required forest practices designed to mitigate the effects of timber harvest on streams and fish. Yet questions remain about the extent to which these practices are effective. Add in the effects of climate change—...

A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Heat Vulnerability Across the United States using Geospatial Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoessow, F. S.; Li, Y.; Howe, P. D.

2016-12-01

Extreme heat events are the deadliest natural hazard in the United States and are expected to increase in both severity and frequency in the coming years due to the effects of climate change. The risks of climate change and weather-related events such as heat waves to a population can be more comprehensively assessed by coupling the traditional examination of natural hazards using remote sensing and geospatial analysis techniques with human vulnerability factors and individual perceptions of hazards. By analyzing remote-sensed and empirical survey data alongside national hazards advisories, this study endeavors to establish a nationally-representative baseline quantifying the spatiotemporal variation of individual heat vulnerabilities at multiple scales and between disparate population groups affected by their unique socioenvironmental factors. This is of immediate academic interest because the study of heat waves risk perceptions remains relatively unexplored - despite the intensification of extreme heat events. The use of "human sensors", georeferenced & timestamped individual response data, provides invaluable contextualized data at a high spatial resolution, which will enable policy-makers to more effectively implement targeted strategies for risk prevention, mitigation, and communication. As climate change risks are further defined, this cognizance will help identify vulnerable populations and enhance national hazard preparedness and recovery frameworks.

Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol

2018-03-01

Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

77 FR 57070 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-17

... their behavior to mitigate that threat. Type of information collected will include (1) risk perceptions... and Climate Change: Risk Mitigation Behaviors of Homeowners. OMB Control Number: 0596-New. Summary of... risk to human and ecosystem health. In efforts to mitigate this risk the U.S. Forest Service (FS) uses...

Results of the UCAR 2008 Forum on Climate Mitigation and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fellows, J.; Barron, E.

2008-12-01

Mayors, governors, and local decision makers are developing climate change action plans. They are not waiting for the federal carbon emission reduction debates to conclude (e.g., cap and trade or carbon tax legislation). Many of them are struggling with what should be in these plans, what they should be assuming about future weather and climate trends, and what the impact might be on their community and its infrastructure. In October 2008, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research held a forum at its 2008 Members' Meeting that focused on the UCAR community's role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Many of UCAR's 71 university members are involved in projects with local and regional decision makers struggling with planning for the future in the face of climate change. The forum focused on the following questions: 1. How are these projects working and what lessons have we learned? 2. What can our community can do to assist these partnerships (e.g., models and other tools, better information, training opportunities, outreach, sharing ideas, etc.)? 3. Can we help our nation deal more effectively with climate mitigation and adaptation by being more strategic with these partnerships (e.g., more coordination, creating packages of tools and information, creating common approaches to climate action plans, developing better communication tools, community strategic planning effort, etc.)? This presentation will provide a summary of the forum outcomes.

Limited influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg; Maussion, Fabien; Champollion, Nicolas

2018-04-01

Glacier mass loss is a key contributor to sea-level change1,2, slope instability in high-mountain regions3,4 and the changing seasonality and volume of river flow5-7. Understanding the causes, mechanisms and time scales of glacier change is therefore paramount to identifying successful strategies for mitigation and adaptation. Here, we use temperature and precipitation fields from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 output to force a glacier evolution model, quantifying mass responses to future climatic change. We find that contemporary glacier mass is in disequilibrium with the current climate, and 36 ± 8% mass loss is already committed in response to past greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, mitigating future emissions will have only very limited influence on glacier mass change in the twenty-first century. No significant differences between 1.5 and 2 K warming scenarios are detectable in the sea-level contribution of glaciers accumulated within the twenty-first century. In the long-term, however, mitigation will exert strong control, suggesting that ambitious measures are necessary for the long-term preservation of glaciers.

Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change effects on water resources

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; Ge Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charlie Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara Heartsill Scalley

2012-01-01

Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...

Can forest watershed management mitigate climate change impacts on water resources?

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Chelcy R. Ford; Stephanie Laseter; Salli Dymond; GE Sun; Mary Beth Adams; Stephen Sebestyen; John Campbell; Charles Luce; Devendra Amatya; Kelly Elder; Tamara. Heartsill-Scalley

2012-01-01

Long-term hydrology and climate data from United States Forest Service Experimental Forests and Ranges (EFR) provide critical information on the interactions among climate, streamflow, and forest management practices. We examined the relationships among streamflow responses to climate variation and forest management using long-term data. Analysis of climate data from a...

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC ARS Simulations

EPA Science Inventory

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ...

Climate change and North American rangelands: Assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David D. Briske; Joel R. Brown; H. Wayne Polley; Bruce A. McCarl; Derek W. Bailey

2013-01-01

Recent climatic trends and climate model projections indicate that climate change will modify rangeland ecosystem functions and the services and livelihoods that they provision. Recent history has demonstrated that climatic variability has a strong influence on both ecological and social components of rangeland systems and that these systems possess substantial...

An interdisciplinary, outcome-based approach to astmospheric CO2 mitigation with planted southern pine forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, T.; Fox, T.; Peter, G.; Monroe, M.

2012-12-01

The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation and Adaptation Project ("PINEMAP") was funded by National Institute of Food and Agriculture to produce outcomes of enhanced climate change mitigation and adaptation in planted southern pine ecosystems. The PINEMAP project leverages a strong group of existing networks to produce synergy and cooperation on applied forestry research in the region. Over the last 50 years, cooperative research on planted southern pine management among southeastern U.S. universities, government agencies, and corporate forest landowners has developed and facilitated the widespread implementation of improved genetic and silvicultural technology. The impact of these regional research cooperatives is difficult to overstate, with current members managing 55% of the privately owned planted pine forestland, and producing 95% of the pine seedlings planted each year. The PINEMAP team includes the eight major forestry cooperative research programs, scientists from eleven land grant institutions, the US Forest Service, and climate modeling and adaptation specialists associated with the multi-state SE Climate Consortium and state climate offices. Our goal is to create and disseminate the knowledge that enables landowners to: harness planted pine forest productivity to mitigate atmospheric CO2; more efficiently use nitrogen and other fertilizer inputs; and adapt their forest management to increase resilience in the face of changing climate. We integrate our team's infrastructure and expertise to: 1) develop breeding, genetic deployment and innovative management systems to increase C sequestration and resilience to changing climate of planted southern pine forests ; 2) understand interactive effects of policy, biology, and climate change on sustainable management; 3) transfer new management and genetic technologies to private industrial and non-industrial landowners; and 4) educate a diverse cross-section of the public about the relevance of forests, forest management, and climate change. These efforts will enable our stakeholders to enhance the productivity of southern pine forests, while maintaining social, economic, and ecological sustainability.

Evaluation and Mitigation of the Risk Due to Climate Change at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.

2016-12-01

The state of South Carolina, home to the Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), has been identified as facing an `above average' risk due to extreme heat, and the threat due to wildfire is expected to nearly double by 2050. To comply with DOE requirements that each of its sites prepares for climate change, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is involved in an ongoing process to evaluate the site vulnerability and establish policies to mitigate those effects. This requires close cooperation between the managers of various site facilities and on-site climate researchers. The Atmospheric Technologies Group at SRNL currently provides short-term weather forecasts to support outdoor activities on site, but is also now working with site decision-makers to achieve DOE's goals of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We will discuss the results of our climate vulnerability assessment, which includes the effects of climate change on the energy requirements for mission critical infrastructure, the health, safety and productivity of the outdoor workforce, the danger of fire in the SRS forest, and the levels of surface water impoundments. (The latter of which must be maintained to avoid the release of radioactive contaminants sequestered beneath them). For each of these, existing climate change projections were carefully studied and `translated' into numerical indices relevant to facility personnel at SRS, along with a vulnerability rating (also based on conversations with site workers) to estimate the most endangered `assets'. We will also explain the process we have developed to facilitate effective communication between researchers and managers - involving them both in the development of the climate vulnerability assessment and the next steps toward planning, resource allocation, actions to mitigate rising costs, and safety considerations as well as helping the site remain sustainable throughout the future of its missions.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Climate change mitigation: the potential of agriculture as a renewable energy source in Nigeria.

PubMed

Elum, Z A; Modise, D M; Nhamo, G

2017-02-01

Energy is pivotal to the economic development of every nation. However, its production and utilization leads to undesirable carbon emissions that aggravate global warming which results in climate change. The agriculture sector is a significant user of energy. However, it has the potential to be a major contributor to Nigeria's energy supply mix in meeting its energy deficit. More so, in the light of current and impending adverse effects of climate change, there is a need to contain GHG's emissions. This paper focuses on bioenergy utilization as a climate change mitigation strategy and one that can, through effective waste management, enhance sustainable economic development in Nigeria. The paper employed a critical discourse analysis to examine the potential of the agricultural sector to provide biofuels from energy crops and other biomass sources. We conclude that Nigeria can reduce its GHG emissions and greatly contribute to global climate change mitigation while also alleviating its energy supply deficit if the agricultural and municipal wastes readily available in its towns and cities are converted to bioenergy. Such engagements will not only promote a clean and healthy environment but also create jobs for economic empowerment and a better standard of living for the people.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; Nordkvelle, Jonas; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Gilmore, Elisabeth

2016-05-01

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. This study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of key socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960-2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014-2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.

Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, DC

ScienceCinema

Dr. Michael MacCracken

2017-12-09

Achieving International Agreement and Climate Protection by Coordinated Mitigation of Short- and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases. Presented at the China-US Workshop on the "Climate-Energy Nexus" at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on November 11, 2009.

Dr. Michael MacCracken, Climate Institute, Washington, DC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dr. Michael MacCracken

2009-11-13

Achieving International Agreement and Climate Protection by Coordinated Mitigation of Short- and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases. Presented at the China-US Workshop on the "Climate-Energy Nexus" at Oak Ridge National Laboratory on November 11, 2009.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G R William; Moran, Jonathan A

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them.

Potential effects of climate change on members of the Palaeotropical pitcher plant family Nepenthaceae

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Wint, G. R. William

2017-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have profound effects on species distributions over the coming decades. In this paper, we used maximum entropy modelling (Maxent) to estimate the effects of projected changes in climate on extent of climatically-suitable habitat for two Nepenthes pitcher plant species in Borneo. The model results predicted an increase in area of climatically-suitable habitat for the lowland species Nepenthes rafflesiana by 2100; in contrast, the highland species Nepenthes tentaculata was predicted to undergo significant loss of climatically-suitable habitat over the same period. Based on the results of the models, we recommend that research be undertaken into practical mitigation strategies, as approximately two-thirds of Nepenthes are restricted to montane habitats. Highland species with narrow elevational ranges will be at particularly high risk, and investigation into possible mitigation strategies should be focused on them. PMID:28817596

Risk of natural disturbances makes future contribution of Canada's forests to the global carbon cycle highly uncertain.

PubMed

Kurz, Werner A; Stinson, Graham; Rampley, Gregory J; Dymond, Caren C; Neilson, Eric T

2008-02-05

A large carbon sink in northern land surfaces inferred from global carbon cycle inversion models led to concerns during Kyoto Protocol negotiations that countries might be able to avoid efforts to reduce fossil fuel emissions by claiming large sinks in their managed forests. The greenhouse gas balance of Canada's managed forest is strongly affected by naturally occurring fire with high interannual variability in the area burned and by cyclical insect outbreaks. Taking these stochastic future disturbances into account, we used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) to project that the managed forests of Canada could be a source of between 30 and 245 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1) during the first Kyoto Protocol commitment period (2008-2012). The recent transition from sink to source is the result of large insect outbreaks. The wide range in the predicted greenhouse gas balance (215 Mt CO(2)e yr(-1)) is equivalent to nearly 30% of Canada's emissions in 2005. The increasing impact of natural disturbances, the two major insect outbreaks, and the Kyoto Protocol accounting rules all contributed to Canada's decision not to elect forest management. In Canada, future efforts to influence the carbon balance through forest management could be overwhelmed by natural disturbances. Similar circumstances may arise elsewhere if global change increases natural disturbance rates. Future climate mitigation agreements that do not account for and protect against the impacts of natural disturbances, for example, by accounting for forest management benefits relative to baselines, will fail to encourage changes in forest management aimed at mitigating climate change.

Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

DOE PAGES

Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page; ...

2017-02-27

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J.; Kyle, Page

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that applymore » a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. Finally, by contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.« less

Role of the Freight Sector in Future Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios.

PubMed

Muratori, Matteo; Smith, Steven J; Kyle, Page; Link, Robert; Mignone, Bryan K; Kheshgi, Haroon S

2017-03-21

The freight sector's role is examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) for a range of climate change mitigation scenarios and future freight demand assumptions. Energy usage and CO 2 emissions from freight have historically grown with a correlation to GDP, and there is limited evidence of near-term global decoupling of freight demand from GDP. Over the 21 st century, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from freight are projected to grow faster than passenger transportation or other major end-use sectors, with the magnitude of growth dependent on the assumed extent of long-term decoupling. In climate change mitigation scenarios that apply a price to GHG emissions, mitigation of freight emissions (including the effects of demand elasticity, mode and technology shifting, and fuel substitution) is more limited than for other demand sectors. In such scenarios, shifting to less-emitting transportation modes and technologies is projected to play a relatively small role in reducing freight emissions in GCAM. By contrast, changes in the supply chain of liquid fuels that reduce the fuel carbon intensity, especially deriving from large-scale use of biofuels coupled to carbon capture and storage technologies, are responsible for the majority of freight emissions mitigation, followed by price-induced reduction in freight demand services.

Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

PubMed Central

Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

2015-01-01

This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-05-01

The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Potentials to mitigate climate change using biochar - the Austrian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruckman, Viktor J.; Klinglmüller, Michaela; Liu, Jay; Uzun, Basak B.; Varol, Esin A.

2015-04-01

Biomass utilization is seen as one of various promising strategies to reduce additional carbon emissions. A recent project on potentials of biochar to mitigate climate change (FOREBIOM) goes even a step further towards bioenergy in combination of CCS or "BECS" and tries to assess the current potentials, from sustainable biomass availability to biochar amendment in soils, including the identification of potential disadvantages and current research needs. The current report represents an outcome of the 1st FOREBIOM Workshop held in Vienna in April, 2013 and tries to characterize the Austrian perspective of biochar for climate change mitigation. The survey shows that for a widespread utilization of biochar in climate change mitigation strategies, still a number of obstacles have to be overcome. There are concerns regarding production and application costs, contamination and health issues for both producers and customers besides a fragmentary knowledge about biochar-soil interactions specifically in terms of long-term behavior, biochar stability and the effects on nutrient cycles. However, there are a number of positive examples showing that biochar indeed has the potential to sequester large amounts of carbon while improving soil properties and subsequently leading to a secondary carbon sink via rising soil productivity. Diversification, cascadic utilization and purpose designed biochar production are key strategies overcoming initial concerns, especially regarding economic aspects. A theoretical scenario calculation showed that relatively small amounts of biomass that is currently utilized for energy can reduce the gap between Austria's current GHG emissions and the Kyoto target by about 30% if biomass residues are pyrolized and biochar subsequently used as soil amendment. However, by using a more conservative approach that is representing the aims of the underlying FOREBIOM project (assuming that 10% of the annual biomass increment from forests is used for biochar production), each year 0.38 megatons CO2e could potentially be mitigated in Austria, which is 0.4% of total or 5% of all GHG emissions caused by agriculture in Austria in 2010. In order to produce this amount of biochar annually, about 27 medium-scale or 220 small-scale pyrolysis plants would be required. The economic analysis revealed that biochar yield, carbon sequestration and feedstock costs have the highest influence on GHG abatement costs. Further reading: Bruckman, V.J. and Klinglmüller, M. (2014): Potentials to Mitigate Climate Change Using Biochar - the Austrian Perspective. In: Bruckman, V.J., Liu, J., Başak, B.B. and Apaydın-Varol, E. (Eds.) Potentials to Mitigate Climate Change Using Biochar. IUFRO Occasional Papers 27.

Global Climate Change and the Mitigation Challenge

EPA Science Inventory

Book edited by Frank Princiotta titled Global Climate Change--The Technology Challenge Transparent modeling tools and the most recent literature are used, to quantify the challenge posed by climate change and potential technological remedies. The chapter examines forces driving ...

Trade, transport, and sinks extend the carbon dioxide responsibility of countries: An editorial essay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peters, Glen P; Marland, Gregg; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2009-01-01

Globalization and the dynamics of ecosystem sinks need be considered in post-Kyoto climate negotiations as they increasingly affect the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. Currently, the allocation of responsibility for greenhouse gas mitigation is based on territorial emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, process emissions and some land-use emissions. However, at least three additional factors can significantly alter a country's impact on climate from carbon dioxide emissions. First, international trade causes a separation of consumption from production, reducing domestic pollution at the expense of foreign producers, or vice versa. Second, international transportation emissions are not allocated to countries for the purposemore » of mitigation. Third, forest growth absorbs carbon dioxide and can contribute to both carbon sequestration and climate change protection. Here we quantify how these three factors change the carbon dioxide emissions allocated to China, Japan, Russia, USA, and European Union member countries. We show that international trade can change the carbon dioxide currently allocated to countries by up to 60% and that forest expansion can turn some countries into net carbon sinks. These factors are expected to become more dominant as fossil-fuel combustion and process emissions are mitigated and as international trade and forest sinks continue to grow. Emission inventories currently in wide-spread use help to understand the global carbon cycle, but for long-term climate change mitigation a deeper understanding of the interaction between the carbon cycle and society is needed. Restructuring international trade and investment flows to meet environmental objectives, together with the inclusion of forest sinks, are crucial issues that need consideration in the design of future climate policies. And even these additional issues do not capture the full impact of changes in the carbon cycle on the global climate system.« less

Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Allison

2012-01-01

This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impacts on the United States vary by region and sector of the economy. Responses to climate change fall into two major categories. Mitigation focuses on the reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or increasing their uptake to reduce the amount and speed of climate change. Adaptatio...

Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

PubMed

Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

2017-03-01

Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

Effective Strategies for Talking about Climate Change in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busch, K. C.; Osborne, Jonathan

2014-01-01

Teaching about climate science presents some unique challenges. Unlike many other science topics, mitigation and adaptation to climate change will require students to take action. This article outlines five major challenges to communicating about climate change in the classroom, drawing on research in environmental psychology: scepticism,…

Climate change assessments

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2008-01-01

The science associated with climate and its effects on ecosystems, economies, and social systems is developing rapidly. Climate change assessments can serve as an important synthesis of this science and provide the information and context for management and policy decisions on adaptation and mitigation. This topic paper describes the variety of climate change...

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change

PubMed Central

Corry, Olaf

2017-01-01

Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for ‘Plan A’, i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation. PMID:29386754

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Public willingness to pay for CO2 mitigation and the determinants under climate change: a case study of Suzhou, China.

PubMed

Yang, Jie; Zou, Liping; Lin, Tiansheng; Wu, Ying; Wang, Haikun

2014-12-15

This study explored the factors that influence respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for CO2 mitigation under climate change. A questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Suzhou, Jiangsu Province in China. Respondents' traditional demographic attributes, risk perception of greenhouse gas (GHG), and attitude toward the government's risk management practices were established using a Tobit model to analyze the determinants. The results showed that about 55% of the respondents refused to pay for CO2 mitigation, respondent's WTP increased with increasing CO2 mitigation percentage. Important factors influencing WTP include people's feeling of dread of GHGs, confidence in policy, the timeliness of governmental information disclosure, age, education and income level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mitigating Methane: Emerging Technologies To Combat Climate Change's Second Leading Contributor.

PubMed

Pratt, Chris; Tate, Kevin

2018-06-05

Methane (CH 4 ) is the second greatest contributor to anthropogenic climate change. Emissions have tripled since preindustrial times and continue to rise rapidly, given the fact that the key sources of food production, energy generation and waste management, are inexorably tied to population growth. Until recently, the pursuit of CH 4 mitigation approaches has tended to align with opportunities for easy energy recovery through gas capture and flaring. Consequently, effective abatement has been largely restricted to confined high-concentration sources such as landfills and anaerobic digesters, which do not represent a major share of CH 4 's emission profile. However, in more recent years we have witnessed a quantum leap in the sophistication, diversity and affordability of CH 4 mitigation technologies on the back of rapid advances in molecular analytical techniques, developments in material sciences and increasingly efficient engineering processes. Here, we present some of the latest concepts, designs and applications in CH 4 mitigation, identifying a number of abatement synergies across multiple industries and sectors. We also propose novel ways to manipulate cutting-edge technology approaches for even more effective mitigation potential. The goal of this review is to stimulate the ongoing quest for and uptake of practicable CH 4 mitigation options; supplementing established and proven approaches with immature yet potentially high-impact technologies. There has arguably never been, and if we do not act soon nor will there be, a better opportunity to combat climate change's second most significant greenhouse gas.

GLIMPSE: A decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality management and climate change mitigation goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinder, R. W.; Akhtar, F.; Loughlin, D. H.; Henze, D. K.; Bowman, K. W.

2012-12-01

Poor air quality, ecosystem damages, and climate change all are caused by the combustion of fossil fuels, yet environmental management often addresses each of these challenges separately. This can lead to sub-optimal strategies and unintended consequences. Here we present GLIMPSE -- a decision support tool for simultaneously achieving our air quality and climate change mitigation goals. GLIMPSE comprises of two types of models, (i) the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, to calculate the relationship between emissions and impacts at high spatial resolution, and (ii) the MARKAL energy system model, to calculate the relationship between energy technologies and emissions. This presentation will demonstrate how GLIMPSE can be used to explore energy scenarios to better achieve both improved air quality and mitigate climate change. Second, this presentation will discuss how space-based observations can be incorporated into GLIMPSE to improve decision-making. NASA satellite products, namely ozone radiative forcing from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), are used to extend GLIMPSE to include the impact of emissions on ozone radiative forcing. This provides a much needed observational constraint on ozone radiative forcing.

An issue of trust: state corruption, responsibility and greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frame, David J.; Hepburn, Cameron

2010-01-01

Climate change is increasingly seen to raise difficult normative issues. To date, cumulative emissions have been disproportionately from the developed world, while the consequences of climate change are anticipated to hit poorer countries hardest. For this reason, amongst others, it is suggested that more economically developed countries with high greenhouse gas emissions ought to transfer resources to less economically developed, lower emissions countries. Some proponents would justify these resource transfers by ethical or justice-based arguments, often based on some function of the emissions per capita of each country, such that rights of some sort are created and those nations which are emitting more (per capita) than some amount are to compensate those who are emitting less. In this letter we show that national emissions per capita, scaled by economic output, show a systematic negative correlation with state corruption. We discuss this result in the context of justice-based arguments for per capita climate mitigation transfers, and suggest that it would be beneficial for the climate mitigation community to consider state corruption as a relevant factor in the development of mitigation policy.

The contribution of sectoral climate change mitigation options to national targets: a quantitative assessment of dairy production in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brandt, Patric; Herold, Martin; Rufino, Mariana C.

2018-03-01

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture has become a critical target in national climate change policies. More than 80% of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) refer to the reduction of agricultural emissions, including livestock, in their nationally determined contribution (NDC) to mitigate climate change. The livestock sector in Kenya contributes largely to the gross domestic product and to GHG emissions from the land use sector. The government has recently pledged in its NDC to curb total GHG emissions by 30% by 2030. Quantifying and linking the mitigation potential of farm practices to national targets is required to support realistically the implementation of NDCs. Improvements in feed and manure management represent promising mitigation options for dairy production. This study aimed (i) to assess mitigation and food production benefits of feed and manure management scenarios, including land use changes covering Kenya’s entire dairy production region and (ii) to analyse the contribution of these practices to national targets on milk production and mitigation, and their biophysical feasibility given the availability of arable land. The results indicate that improving forage quality by increasing the use of Napier grass and supplementing dairy concentrates supports Kenya’s NDC target, reduces emission intensities by 26%-31%, partially achieves the national milk productivity target for 2030 by 38%-41%, and shows high feasibility given the availability of arable land. Covering manure heaps may reduce emissions from manure management by 68%. In contrast, including maize silage in cattle diets would not reduce emission intensities due to the risk of ten-fold higher emissions from the conversion of land required to grow additional maize. The shortage of arable land may render the implementation of these improved feed practices largely infeasible. This assessment provides the first quantitative estimates of the potential of feed intensification and manure management to mitigate GHG emissions and to increase milk yields at sectoral-level and at a high spatial resolution for an SSA country. The scientific evidence is tailored to support actual policy and decision-making processes at the national level, such as ‘Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions’. Linking feed intensification and manure management strategies with spatially-explicit estimates of mitigation and food production to national targets may help the sector to access climate financing while contributing to food security.

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.

2014-12-01

Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

International Experiences with Quantifying the Co-Benefits of Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Programs and Policies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Christopher; Hasanbeigi, Ali; Price, Lynn

Improving the efficiency of energy production and consumption and switching to lower carbon energy sources can significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and reduce climate change impacts. A growing body of research has found that these measures can also directly mitigate many non-climate change related human health hazards and environmental damage. Positive impacts of policies and programs that occur in addition to the intended primary policy goal are called co-benefits. Policy analysis relies on forecasting and comparing the costs of policy and program implementation and the benefits that accrue to society from implementation. GHG reduction and energy efficiency policies andmore » programs face political resistance in part because of the difficulty of quantifying their benefits. On the one hand, climate change mitigation policy benefits are often global, long-term, and subject to large uncertainties, and subsidized energy pricing can reduce the direct monetary benefits of energy efficiency policies to below their cost. On the other hand, the co-benefits that accrue from these efforts’ resultant reductions in conventional air pollution (such as improved health, agricultural productivity, reduced damage to infrastructure, and local ecosystem improvements) are generally near term, local, and more certain than climate change mitigation benefits and larger than the monetary value of energy savings. The incorporation of co-benefits into energy efficiency and climate mitigation policy and program analysis therefore might significantly increase the uptake of these policies. Faster policy uptake is especially important in developing countries because ongoing development efforts that do not consider co-benefits may lock in suboptimal technologies and infrastructure and result in high costs in future years. Over the past two decades, studies have repeatedly documented that non-climate change related benefits of energy efficiency and fuel conversion efforts, as a part of GHG mitigation strategies, can be from between 30% to over 100% of the costs of such policies and programs strategies. Policy makers around the world are increasingly interested in including both GHG and non-GHG impacts in analyses of energy efficiency and fuel switching policies and programs and a set of methodologies has matured from the efforts of early moving jurisdictions such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan.« less

Integrated assessments of green infrastructure for flood mitigation to support robust decision-making for sponge city construction in an urbanized watershed.

PubMed

Mei, Chao; Liu, Jiahong; Wang, Hao; Yang, Zhiyong; Ding, Xiangyi; Shao, Weiwei

2018-10-15

Green Infrastructure (GI) has become increasingly important in urban stormwater management because of the effects of climate change and urbanization. To mitigate severe urban water-related problems, China is implementing GI at the national scale under its Sponge City Program (SCP). The SCP is currently in a pilot period, however, little attention has been paid to the cost-effectiveness of GI implementation in China. In this study, an evaluation framework based on the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) and life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was applied to undertake integrated assessments of the development of GI for flood mitigation, to support robust decision making regarding sponge city construction in urbanized watersheds. A baseline scenario and 15 GI scenarios under six design rainfall events with recurrence intervals ranging from 2-100 years were simulated and assessed. Model simulation results confirmed the effectiveness of GI for flood mitigation. Nevertheless, even under the most beneficial scenario, the results showed the hydrological performance of GI was incapable of eliminating flooding. Analysis indicated the bioretention cell (BC) plus vegetated swale (VS) scenario was the most cost-effective GI option for unit investment under all rainfall events. However, regarding the maximum potential of the implementation areas of all GI scenarios, the porous pavement plus BC + VS strategy was considered most reasonable for the study area. Although the optimal combinations are influenced by uncertainties in both the model and the GI parameters, the main trends and key insights derived remain unaffected; therefore, the conclusions are relevant regarding sponge city construction within the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Ali, Ghaffar

2018-09-01

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2°C between 1960 and 1987 and 4°C between 1988 and 2014, and R 2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09°C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R 2 were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrating U.S. climate, energy, and transportation policies : RAND workshops address challenges and potential solutions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

There is growing consensus among policymakers that bold government action is needed : to mitigate climate change, particularly through integrated climate, energy, and transportation : policy initiatives. In an effort to share different perspectives o...

Geoengineering: Direct Mitigation of Climate Warming

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge With the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) rising to levels unprecedented in the current glacial epoch, the earth’s climate system appears to be rapidly shifting into a warmer regime....

Building Energy-Efficiency Best Practice Policies and Policy Packages

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Mark; de la Rue de Can, Stephane; Zheng, Nina

2012-10-26

This report addresses the single largest source of greenhouse gas emissions and the greatest opportunity to reduce these emissions. The IPCC 4 th Assessment Report estimates that globally 35% to 40% of all energy-related CO2 emissions (relative to a growing baseline) result from energy use in buildings. Emissions reductions from a combination of energy efficiency and conservation (using less energy) in buildings have the potential to cut emissions as much as all other energy-using sectors combined. This is especially the case for China, India and other developing countries that are expected to account for 80% or more of growth inmore » building energy use worldwide over the coming decades. In short, buildings constitute the largest opportunity to mitigate climate change and special attention needs to be devoted to developing countries.« less

Signature of present and projected climate change at an urban scale: The case of Addis Ababa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsiso, Bisrat Kifle; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik

2018-06-01

Understanding climate change and variability at an urban scale is essential for water resource management, land use planning, development of adaption plans, mitigation of air and water pollution. However, there are serious challenges to meet these goals due to unavailability of observed and/or simulated high resolution spatial and temporal climate data. The statistical downscaling of general circulation climate model, for instance, is usually driven by sparse observational data hindering the use of downscaled data to investigate urban scale climate variability and change in the past. Recently, these challenges are partly resolved by concerted international effort to produce global and high spatial resolution climate data. In this study, the 1 km2 high resolution NIMR-HadGEM2-AO simulations for future projections under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and gridded observations provided by Worldclim data center are used to assess changes in rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature expected under the two scenarios over Addis Ababa city. The gridded 1 km2 observational data set for the base period (1950-2000) is compared to observation from a meteorological station in the city in order to assess its quality for use as a reference (baseline) data. The comparison revealed that the data set has a very good quality. The rainfall anomalies under RCPs scenarios are wet in the 2030s (2020-2039), 2050s (2040-2069) and 2080s (2070-2099). Both minimum and maximum temperature anomalies under RCPs are successively getting warmer during these periods. Thus, the projected changes under RCPs scenarios show a general increase in rainfall and temperatures with strong variabilities in rainfall during rainy season implying level of difficulty in water resource use and management as well as land use planning and management.

Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

2015-12-01

Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

pyhector: A Python interface for the simple climate model Hector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N Willner, Sven; Hartin, Corinne; Gieseke, Robert

2017-04-01

Pyhector is a Python interface for the simple climate model Hector (Hartin et al. 2015) developed in C++. Simple climate models like Hector can, for instance, be used in the analysis of scenarios within integrated assessment models like GCAM1, in the emulation of complex climate models, and in uncertainty analyses. Hector is an open-source, object oriented, simple global climate carbon cycle model. Its carbon cycle consists of a one pool atmosphere, three terrestrial pools which can be broken down into finer biomes or regions, and four carbon pools in the ocean component. The terrestrial carbon cycle includes primary production andmore » respiration fluxes. The ocean carbon cycle circulates carbon via a simplified thermohaline circulation, calculating air-sea fluxes as well as the marine carbonate system (Hartin et al. 2016). The model input is time series of greenhouse gas emissions; as example scenarios for these the Pyhector package contains the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2. These were developed to cover the range of baseline and mitigation emissions scenarios and are widely used in climate change research and model intercomparison projects. Using DataFrames from the Python library Pandas (McKinney 2010) as a data structure for the scenarios simplifies generating and adapting scenarios. Other parameters of the Hector model can easily be modified when running the model. Pyhector can be installed using pip from the Python Package Index.3 Source code and issue tracker are available in Pyhector's GitHub repository4. Documentation is provided through Readthedocs5. Usage examples are also contained in the repository as a Jupyter Notebook (Pérez and Granger 2007; Kluyver et al. 2016). Courtesy of the Mybinder project6, the example Notebook can also be executed and modified without installing Pyhector locally.« less

Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

2011-12-01

Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

Long-term climate change mitigation potential with organic matter management on grasslands.

PubMed

Ryals, Rebecca; Hartman, Melannie D; Parton, William J; DeLonge, Marcia S; Silver, Whendee L

2015-03-01

Compost amendments to grasslands have been proposed as a strategy to mitigate climate change through carbon (C) sequestration, yet little research exists exploring the net mitigation potential or the long-term impacts of this strategy. We used field data and the DAYCENT biogeochemical model to investigate the climate change mitigation potential of compost amendments to grasslands in California, USA. The model was used to test ecosystem C and greenhouse gas responses to a range of compost qualities (carbon to nitrogen [C:N] ratios of 11.1, 20, or 30) and application rates (single addition of 14 Mg C/ha or 10 annual additions of 1.4 Mg C · ha(-1) · yr(-1)). The model was parameterized using site-specific weather, vegetation, and edaphic characteristics and was validated by comparing simulated soil C, nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), and carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes, and net primary production (NPP) with three years of field data. All compost amendment scenarios led to net greenhouse gas sinks that persisted for several decades. Rates of climate change mitigation potential ranged from 130 ± 3 g to 158 ± 8 g CO2-eq · m(-2) ·yr(-1) (where "eq" stands for "equivalents") when assessed over a 10-year time period and 63 ± 2 g to 84 ± 10 g CO2- eq · m(-2) · yr(-1) over a 30-year time period. Both C storage and greenhouse gas emissions increased rapidly following amendments. Compost amendments with lower C:N led to higher C sequestration rates over time. However, these soils also experienced greater N20 fluxes. Multiple smaller compost additions resulted in similar cumulative C sequestration rates, albeit with a time lag, and lower cumulative N2O emissions. These results identify a trade-off between maximizing C sequestration and minimizing N2O emissions following amendments, and suggest that compost additions to grassland soils can have a long-term impact on C and greenhouse gas dynamics that contributes to climate change mitigation.

Carbon stock corridors to mitigate climate change and promote biodiversity in the tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jantz, Patrick; Goetz, Scott; Laporte, Nadine

2014-02-01

A key issue in global conservation is how biodiversity co-benefits can be incorporated into land use and climate change mitigation activities, particularly those being negotiated under the United Nations to reduce emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation. Protected areas have been the dominant strategy for tropical forest conservation and they have increased substantially in recent decades. Avoiding deforestation by preserving carbon stored in vegetation between protected areas provides an opportunity to mitigate the effects of land use and climate change on biodiversity by maintaining habitat connectivity across landscapes. Here we use a high-resolution data set of vegetation carbon stock to map corridors traversing areas of highest biomass between protected areas in the tropics. The derived corridors contain 15% of the total unprotected aboveground carbon in the tropical region. A large number of corridors have carbon densities that approach or exceed those of the protected areas they connect, suggesting these are suitable areas for achieving both habitat connectivity and climate change mitigation benefits. To further illustrate how economic and biological information can be used for corridor prioritization on a regional scale, we conducted a multicriteria analysis of corridors in the Legal Amazon, identifying corridors with high carbon, high species richness and endemism, and low economic opportunity costs. We also assessed the vulnerability of corridors to future deforestation threat.

Radon mitigation in cold climates at Kitigan Zibi Anishinabeg.

PubMed

Brossard, Mathieu; Ottawa, Céline Brazeau; Falcomer, Renato; Whyte, Jeff

2015-02-01

Available radon mitigation results were gathered for 85 houses mainly by installing sub-slab depressurization systems (SSDS) with two types of discharge and fan locations: Above ground level discharge with the fan located in the basement (AGL) or above roof line discharge with the fan located in the attic (ARL). A comparative analysis was made of mitigation efficiency and of exhaust icing. Results show that both SSDS scenarios reduced radon levels similarly. The results of SSDS with AGL show that a sealed radon fan having proper fittings and sealed piping was able to reduce the radon to acceptable levels, and that these installations were less subject to obstructive icing of the exhaust in cold climates.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Martinich, Jeremy; Sarofim, Marcus

2015-07-01

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets ofmore » 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.« less

Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate.

PubMed

Kibret, Solomon; Lautze, Jonathan; McCartney, Matthew; Nhamo, Luxon; Wilson, G Glenn

2016-09-05

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has embarked on a new era of dam building to improve food security and promote economic development. Nonetheless, the future impacts of dams on malaria transmission are poorly understood and seldom investigated in the context of climate and demographic change. The distribution of malaria in the vicinity of 1268 existing dams in SSA was mapped under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Population projections and malaria incidence estimates were used to compute population at risk of malaria in both RCPs. Assuming no change in socio-economic interventions that may mitigate impacts, the change in malaria stability and malaria burden in the vicinity of the dams was calculated for the two RCPs through to the 2080s. Results were compared against the 2010 baseline. The annual number of malaria cases associated with dams and climate change was determined for each of the RCPs. The number of dams located in malarious areas is projected to increase in both RCPs. Population growth will add to the risk of transmission. The population at risk of malaria around existing dams and associated reservoirs, is estimated to increase from 15 million in 2010 to 21-23 million in the 2020s, 25-26 million in the 2050s and 28-29 million in the 2080s, depending on RCP. The number of malaria cases associated with dams in malarious areas is expected to increase from 1.1 million in 2010 to 1.2-1.6 million in the 2020s, 2.1-3.0 million in the 2050s and 2.4-3.0 million in the 2080s depending on RCP. The number of cases will always be higher in RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. In the absence of changes in other factors that affect transmission (e.g., socio-economic), the impact of dams on malaria in SSA will be significantly exacerbated by climate change and increases in population. Areas without malaria transmission at present, which will transition to regions of unstable transmission, may be worst affected. Modifying conventional water management frameworks to improve malaria control, holds the potential to mitigate some of this increase and should be more actively implemented.

The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

PubMed

Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

2017-11-01

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Spickett, Jeffery T., E-mail: J.Spickett@curtin.edu.a; Brown, Helen L., E-mail: h.brown@curtin.edu.a; Katscherian, Dianne, E-mail: Dianne.Katscherian@health.wa.gov.a

2011-04-15

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location.more » Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to address the potential health impacts of climate change.« less

Caroline Sallum Uriarte | NREL

Science.gov Websites

integration Research Interests Climate change mitigation and adaptation Low emissions development strategies International collaboration to address climate change Renewable energy technology development, resource

Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

2013-03-01

Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply with respect to land rents, and the elasticity of substitution between land and non-land inputs. For assessing the mitigation costs, the elasticity of productivity with respect to investments in research and development is also very important. Overall, this study finds that broad-based efforts to adapt agriculture to climate change have mitigation co-benefits that, even when forced to shoulder the entire expense of adaptation, are inexpensive relative to many activities whose main purpose is mitigation. These results therefore challenge the current approach of most climate financing portfolios, which support adaptation from funds completely separate from—and often much smaller than—mitigation ones.

Long-range climate impacts on crop yield and the implications of enacting global carbon mitigation policies

EPA Science Inventory

Research on climate impacts and agriculture over the past two decades has applied simulation models at a range of scales and future climate scenarios, finding that crop growth and yield responds to changing climate conditions, and that the impacts are regional and highly depende...

Climate Project Screening Tool

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2011-01-01

Climate change poses a challenge for resource managers as they review current management practices. Adaptation is a critical means of addressing climate change in the near future because, due to inherent time lags in climate impacts, the effects of increased atmospheric greenhouse gases will be felt for decades even if effective mitigation begins now. To address the...

Northwest regional climate hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This assessment draws from a large bank of information developed by scientists and extension specialists in the Northwest to describe where we need to focus when dealing with climate risks to working landscapes. The changing climate has many secondary effects, such as irrigation water loss, increase...

Southwest regional climate hub and California subsidiary hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exp...

USDA Midwest and Northern Forests Regional Climate Hub: Assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Midwest Regional Climate Hub covers the States of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin and represents one of the most extensive and intensive agricultural systems in the world. The Northern Forests Climate Sub Hub shares this footprint and represents people...

Expanding the Foundation: Climate Change and Opportunities for Educational Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Joseph; Long, David; Berger, Paul; Russell, Constance; Drewes, Andrea

2017-01-01

Human-caused climate change is a dominant global challenge. Unlike other disciplines and fields, there has as yet been only limited attention to climate change in educational research generally, and in educational foundations in particular. Education is key to assisting humanity in mitigating and adapting to climate change, and educational…

Protect Thy Neighbor: Investigating the Spatial Externalities of Community Wildfire Hazard Mitigation

Treesearch

David Butry; Geoffrey Donovan

2008-01-01

Climate change, increased wildland fuels, and residential development patterns in fire-prone areas all combine to make wildfire risk mitigation an important public policy issue. One approach to wildfire risk mitigation is to encourage homeowners to use fire-resistant building materials and to create defensible spaces around their homes. We develop a theoretical model...

Breeding oilseed crops for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Oilseed crops are the basis for biological systems that produce edible oils, contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize greenhouse gases, and mitigate the risk of climate change. Their response to climate change will be dictated by reactions to temperature, carbon dioxide, solar radia...

Global Climate Change: Threat Multiplier for AFRICOM?

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-06

climate change , stability for Africa hinges upon mitigating the effects of global climate change to prevent future conflicts such as Darfur, and the...instability that fosters terrorism. The National Security Act of 2010 will formally address climate change and the planning requirement for the threat...of Responsibility (AOR). He will need to integrate multinational and multiagency cooperation to address climate change forecasts. The author

Bayesian versus politically motivated reasoning in human perception of climate anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ripberger, Joseph T.; Jenkins-Smith, Hank C.; Silva, Carol L.; Carlson, Deven E.; Gupta, Kuhika; Carlson, Nina; Dunlap, Riley E.

2017-11-01

In complex systems where humans and nature interact to produce joint outcomes, mitigation, adaptation, and resilience require that humans perceive feedback—signals of health and distress—from natural systems. In many instances, humans readily perceive feedback. In others, feedback is more difficult to perceive, so humans rely on experts, heuristics, biases, and/or identify confirming rationalities that may distort perceptions of feedback. This study explores human perception of feedback from natural systems by testing alternate conceptions about how individuals perceive climate anomalies, a form of feedback from the climate system. Results indicate that individuals generally perceive climate anomalies, especially when the anomalies are relatively extreme and persistent. Moreover, this finding is largely robust to political differences that generate predictable but small biases in feedback perception at extreme ends of the partisan spectrum. The subtlety of these biases bodes well for mitigation, adaptation, and resilience as human systems continue to interact with a changing climate system.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

Reply to Comment on ‘The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions’

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wynes, Seth; Nicholas, Kimberly A.

2018-04-01

In their comment piece, van Basshuysen and Brandstedt raise three main issues: first, whether population at the global scale, or individual family planning decisions, are relevant for climate change mitigation; second, they offer useful critiques of the methodologies to attribute greenhouse gas emissions for the choice to have a child; and third, they question the appropriate ethical responsibility for emissions resulting from personal choices. Here we reply that first, we consider choices regarding family size to meet the authors’ criteria for actions ‘under the control of the individual agent and which, with a significant probability, contribute to’ (increased greenhouse gas emissions), and therefore are relevant to consider for climate mitigation. Second, we acknowledge both methodological issues inherent in allocating responsibility for emissions, and encourage more research on this topic especially for the climate impact of reproductive choices. Third, we address ethical questions about responsibility for emissions, and conclude that while such discussions are important, and individual choices are only one part of necessary emissions reductions, people alive today are the last to have a chance at remaining within the carbon budget to meet international climate targets, and therefore do have a special responsibility to reduce emissions.

Policies for accelerating access to clean energy, improving health, advancing development, and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; Smith, Kirk R; Anderson, Dennis; Epstein, Paul R; McMichael, Anthony J; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Woods, Jeremy

2007-10-06

The absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. Furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. Impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. Policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. There are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. However, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. The need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. A comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefits for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. Intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required.

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE PAGES

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.; ...

2016-04-25

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hegre, Håvard; Buhaug, Halvard; Calvin, Katherine V.

Climate change and armed civil conflict are both linked to socioeconomic development, although conditions that facilitate peace may not necessarily facilitate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While economic growth lowers the risk of conflict, it is generally associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions and costs of climate mitigation policies. Here, this study investigates the links between growth, climate change, and conflict by simulating future civil conflict using new scenario data for five alternative socioeconomic pathways with different mitigation and adaptation assumptions, known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We develop a statistical model of the historical effect of keymore » socioeconomic variables on country-specific conflict incidence, 1960–2013. We then forecast the annual incidence of conflict, 2014–2100, along the five SSPs. We find that SSPs with high investments in broad societal development are associated with the largest reduction in conflict risk. This is most pronounced for the least developed countries—poverty alleviation and human capital investments in poor countries are much more effective instruments to attain global peace and stability than further improvements to wealthier economies. Moreover, the SSP that describes a sustainability pathway, which poses the lowest climate change challenges, is as conducive to global peace as the conventional development pathway.« less

Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits.

PubMed

Ebeling, Johannes; Yasué, Maï

2008-05-27

Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.

Is climate change modifying precipitation extremes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, Alberto; Papalexiou, Simon Michael

2016-04-01

The title of the present contribution is a relevant question that is frequently posed to scientists, technicians and managers of local authorities. Although several research efforts were recently dedicated to rainfall observation, analysis and modelling, the above question remains essentially unanswered. The question comes from the awareness that the frequency of floods and the related socio-economic impacts are increasing in many countries, and climate change is deemed to be the main trigger. Indeed, identifying the real reasons for the observed increase of flood risk is necessary in order to plan effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. While mitigation of climate change is an extremely important issue at the global level, at small spatial scales several other triggers may interact with it, therefore requiring different mitigation strategies. Similarly, the responsibilities of administrators are radically different at local and global scales. This talk aims to provide insights and information to address the question expressed by its title. High resolution and long term rainfall data will be presented, as well as an analysis of the frequency of their extremes and its progress in time. The results will provide pragmatic indications for the sake of better planning flood risk mitigation policies.

The relative impact of climate change mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity - An integrated assessment modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J. A.; Clarke, L. E.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Chaturvedi, V.; Patel, P.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Kim, S.; Calvin, K. V.; Moss, R. H.

2012-12-01

We investigate the relative effects of climate emission mitigation policies and socioeconomic drivers on water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally, by estimating both water availability and demand within a technologically-detailed global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, and climate change - the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We first develop a global gridded monthly hydrologic model that reproduces historical streamflow observations and simulates the future availability of freshwater under both a changing climate and an evolving landscape, and incorporate this model into GCAM. We then develop and incorporate technologically oriented representations of water demands for the agricultural (irrigation and livestock), energy (electricity generation, primary energy production and processing), industrial (manufacturing and mining), and municipal sectors. The energy, industrial, and municipal sectors are represented in fourteen geopolitical regions, with the agricultural sector further disaggregated into as many as eighteen agro-ecological zones (AEZs) within each region. To perform the water scarcity analysis at the grid scale, the global water demands for the six demand sectors are spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. The water scarcity index (WSI) compares total water demand to the total amount of renewable water available, and defines extreme water scarcity in any region as demand greater than 40% of total water availability. Using a reference scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 by 2095 and a global population of 14 billion, global annual water demand grows from about 9% of total annual renewable freshwater in 2005 to about 32% by 2095. This results in almost half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Regionally, the demands for water exceed the total renewable freshwater available in two GCAM regions, the Middle East and India. Additionally, 20% and 27% of the global population in years 2050 and 2095, respectively, is projected to live in areas (grid cells) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of renewable water available in a year (i.e., WSI > 1.0). We also investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water demand and compare them to the contribution of socioeconomic drivers both globally and regionally. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 in year 2095, under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. With more stringent climate mitigation targets, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy while increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food, energy, and land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn; ...

2017-01-27

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets—A global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Few, Sheridan; Gambhir, Ajay; Napp, Tamaryn

There exists considerable uncertainty over both shale and conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extraction and its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES integrated assessment model), to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2 °C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energymore » system cost is relatively small (up to 0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1%–3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expected leakage rates, are also considered; and are each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting global temperature goals. Finally, we conclude that the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globally coordinated action, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.« less

Adaptation of farming practices could buffer effects of climate change on northern prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Gilmanov, T.; Millett, B.V.

2009-01-01

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America are vulnerable to climate change. Adaptation of farming practices to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change on wetland water levels is a potential watershed management option. We chose a modeling approach (WETSIM 3.2) to examine the effects of changes in climate and watershed cover on the water levels of a semi-permanent wetland in eastern South Dakota. Land-use practices simulated were unmanaged grassland, grassland managed with moderately heavy grazing, and cultivated crops. Climate scenarios were developed by adjusting the historical climate in combinations of 2??C and 4??C air temperature and ??10% precipitation. For these climate change scenarios, simulations of land use that produced water levels equal to or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate were judged to have mitigative potential against a drier climate. Water levels in wetlands surrounded by managed grasslands were significantly greater than those surrounded by unmanaged grassland. Management reduced both the proportion of years the wetland went dry and the frequency of dry periods, producing the most dynamic vegetation cycle for this modeled wetland. Both cultivated crops and managed grassland achieved water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 2??C rise in air temperature, and the 2??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenarios. Managed grassland also produced water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 4??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenario. Although these modeling results stand as hypotheses, they indicate that amelioration potential exists for a change in climate up to an increase of 2??C or 4??C with a concomitant 10% increase in precipitation. Few empirical data exist to verify the results of such land-use simulations; however, adaptation of farming practices is one possible mitigation avenue available for prairie wetlands. ?? 2009, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Conservation Practices to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change. Poster Demonstration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change and its interaction with other environmental problems such as desertification, deforestation, and depletion of water resources used for irrigation, will increase the challenges for maintaining food security during the next four decades and beyond. Climate change and extreme weather ev...

Groundwater and climate change: mitigating the global groundwater crisis and adapting to climate change model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To better understand the effects of climate change on global groundwater resources, the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) International Hydrological Programme (IHP) initiated the GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Cl...

Harnessing Homophily to Improve Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monroe, Martha C.; Plate, Richard R.; Adams, Damian C.; Wojcik, Deborah J.

2015-01-01

The Cooperative Extension Service (Extension) in the United States is well positioned to educate the public, particularly farmers and foresters, about climate change and to encourage responsible adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the climate change attitudes and perceptions of Extension professionals have limited…

Potential Adverse Environmental Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge The Fourth Assessment Report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli-mate Change (IPCC) in 2007 was unequivocal in its message that warming of the global climate system is now occurring, and found...

Public engagement in climate change - Disjunctions, tensions and blind spots in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höppner, C.

2009-11-01

There is much talk about engaging the public in climate change mitigation and adaptation in the UK and elsewhere. Governments rush to demand greater engagement of the public in tackling climate change and delivering sustainable futures. The importance that public engagement has gained as part of the UK climate agenda begs the questions of what is actually behind this call and what are the implications. This paper analyses the rationale for public engagement as enshrined in major policy documents. This rationale is clearly instrumental in that citizens are expected to engage by adopting the 'right attitude', by performing prescribed behaviours, and by consenting to proposed measures. Using recent cases of climate change mitigation and adaptation practice the paper discusses the implications of such an approach to public engagement. The paper concludes that until the manifold disjunctions between climate related policy agendas and their rationales for engagement are explicitly addressed citizen engagement will be serving incumbent interests rather than contributing to socially sustainable and democratic decision-making

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

Soil organic carbon pool's contribution to climate change mitigation on marginal land of a Mediterranean montane area in Italy.

PubMed

Tommaso, Chiti; Emanuele, Blasi; Guido, Pellis; Lucia, Perugini; Vincenza, Chiriacò Maria; Riccardo, Valentini

2018-07-15

To evaluate the mitigation potential provided by the SOC pool, we investigated the impact of woody encroachment in the 0-30 cm depth of mineral soil across a natural succession from abandoned pastures and croplands to broadleaves forests on the central Apennine in Italy. In parallel, to assess the effect of the land use change (LUC) from cropland to pasture, a series of pastures established on former agricultural sites, abandoned at different time in the past, were also investigated. Our results show that woody encroachment on former pastures and croplands contributes largely to mitigate climate change, with an increase of the original SOC stock of 45% (40.5 Mg C ha -1 ) and 120% (66.5 Mg C ha -1 ), respectively. Also the LUC from croplands to pastures, greatly contributes to climate change mitigation trough a SOC increase of about 80% of the original SOC (45.9 Mg C ha -1 ). The management of abandoned lands represent a crucial point in the mitigation potential of agriculture and forestry activities, and particularly the role of the SOC pool. A policy effort should focus on minimizing the risk of speculative management options, particularly when the value of woody biomass become convenient to supply new energy systems allowing monetizing a long term forests productivity. In conclusion, despite both the land abandonment and the LUC can have a different impact on the SOC pool under different climatic conditions, these results can be useful to improve the SOC estimates in the National greenhouse gases Inventory at country level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests.

PubMed

Grassi, Giacomo; Pilli, Roberto; House, Jo; Federici, Sandro; Kurz, Werner A

2018-05-17

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013-2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) "forest reference level", which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model. Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013-2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110-120 Mt CO 2 /year (capped at 70-80 Mt CO 2 /year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000-2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000-2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests. Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

Resilience training with soldiers during basic combat training: randomisation by platoon.

PubMed

Adler, Amy B; Williams, Jason; McGurk, Dennis; Moss, Andrew; Bliese, Paul D

2015-03-01

Resilience Training has the potential to mitigate mental health symptoms when provided during initial military training. The present study examined the impact of Resilience Training on US soldier well-being and attitudes during Basic Combat Training. Platoons were randomly assigned to Resilience Training or Military History provided during the first few days of Basic Combat Training. Surveys were conducted at baseline, post-intervention, and 3, 6, and 9 weeks. The sample resulted in a total of 1,939 soldiers who completed at least the baseline and one follow-up survey. There were no significant differences between conditions in terms of depression symptoms, anxiety symptoms, or sleep problems. However, while anxiety decreased in both conditions, the rate of decrease was faster in the Resilience Training condition. In contrast, Resilience Training had a slower rate of increase in group cohesion over time than the Military History condition. In addition, Resilience Training was associated with greater confidence in helping others and received more positive ratings than Military History. Findings demonstrate that the brief Resilience Training studied here may have some utility in supporting mental health and peer support but may not benefit unit climate. © 2014 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Assessing the costs of photovoltaic and wind power in six developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Tobias S.; Born, Robin; Schneider, Malte

2012-07-01

To support developing countries in greenhouse-gas emission abatement the 2010 Cancún Agreement established various institutions, among others a financial mechanism administered by the Green Climate Fund. However, the instruments for delivering the support and the magnitude of different countries' financial needs are strongly debated. Both debates are predominantly underpinned by rather aggregate and strongly varying top-down cost estimates. To complement these numbers, we provide a more fine-grained bottom-up approach, comparing the cost of the renewable-energy technologies photovoltaics and wind in six developing countries with those of conventional technologies. Our results unveil large cost variations across specific technology-country combinations and show to what extent fossil-fuel subsidies can negatively affect the competitiveness of renewable-energy technologies. Regarding the instrument debate, our results indicate that to foster transformative changes, nationally appropriate mitigation actions are often more suited than a reformed clean development mechanism. Regarding the debate on financial needs, our results highlight the need for a decision on a fair baseline calculation methodology. To this end, we propose a new methodology that incentivizes changes in the baseline through subsidy phase-out. Finally, we contribute to the debate on domestic versus international support for these measures.

Spatial stabilization and intensification of moistening and drying rate patterns under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Yann; Joussaume, Sylvie; Bony, Sandrine; Braconnot, Pascale

2016-08-01

Precipitation projections are usually presented as the change in precipitation between a fixed current baseline and a particular time in the future. However, upcoming generations will be affected in a way probably more related to the moving trend in precipitation patterns, i.e. to the rate and the persistence of regional precipitation changes from one generation to the next, than to changes relative to a fixed current baseline. In this perspective, we propose an alternative characterization of the future precipitation changes predicted by general circulation models, focusing on the precipitation difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. We show that in a business-as-usual emission pathway, the moistening and drying rates increase by 30-40 %, both over land and ocean. As we move further over the twenty-first century, more regions exhibit a significant rate of precipitation change, while the patterns become geographically stationary and the trends persistent. The stabilization of the geographical rate patterns that occurs despite the acceleration of global warming can be physically explained: it results from the increasing contribution of thermodynamic processes compared to dynamic processes in the control of precipitation change. We show that such an evolution is already noticeable over the last decades, and that it could be reversed if strong mitigation policies were quickly implemented. The combination of intensification and increasing persistence of precipitation rate patterns may affect the way human societies and natural ecosystems adapt to climate change, especially in the Mediterranean basin, in Central America, in South Asia and in the Arctic.

Improving Empirical Approaches to Estimating Local Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackhurst, M.; Azevedo, I. L.; Lattanzi, A.

2016-12-01

Evidence increasingly indicates our changing climate will have significant global impacts on public health, economies, and ecosystems. As a result, local governments have become increasingly interested in climate change mitigation. In the U.S., cities and counties representing nearly 15% of the domestic population plan to reduce 300 million metric tons of greenhouse gases over the next 40 years (or approximately 1 ton per capita). Local governments estimate greenhouse gas emissions to establish greenhouse gas mitigation goals and select supporting mitigation measures. However, current practices produce greenhouse gas estimates - also known as a "greenhouse gas inventory " - of empirical quality often insufficient for robust mitigation decision making. Namely, current mitigation planning uses sporadic, annual, and deterministic estimates disaggregated by broad end use sector, obscuring sources of emissions uncertainty, variability, and exogeneity that influence mitigation opportunities. As part of AGU's Thriving Earth Exchange, Ari Lattanzi of City of Pittsburgh, PA recently partnered with Dr. Inez Lima Azevedo (Carnegie Mellon University) and Dr. Michael Blackhurst (University of Pittsburgh) to improve the empirical approach to characterizing Pittsburgh's greenhouse gas emissions. The project will produce first-order estimates of the underlying sources of uncertainty, variability, and exogeneity influencing Pittsburgh's greenhouse gases and discuss implications of mitigation decision making. The results of the project will enable local governments to collect more robust greenhouse gas inventories to better support their mitigation goals and improve measurement and verification efforts.

Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

2015-12-01

Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon lost to the atmosphere from 25 years of oil palm cultivation can be recovered within the next 75 years. In addition, peat fire suppression is the most effective management tool to maintain peatland carbon stocks, and should be a high priority for climate mitigation efforts on peatlands.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Hong-Mei; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Liu, Li-Jing; Diaz Anadon, Laura

2017-12-01

The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy security, technological spillovers and innovation, and food security. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity for the research community to fill these gaps.

Ensuring coordination and collaboration across climate science entities: toward effective stakeholder engagement for science-informed decisions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As one of the newest federal programs to emerge in response to climate change, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were established to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in their adaptation and mitigation efforts under a changing climate. The Hubs’ mission is to delive...

U.S. Department of Defense deems climate change a national security threat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wendel, JoAnna

2014-10-01

Climate change is a "threat multiplier," according to a new report by the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD). The report, entitled 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap and released on 13 October, lays out ways in which DOD will work with other nations to combat the challenges associated with, adapt to, and mitigate climate change.

Climate Change Education in the Context of Education for Sustainable Development: Rationale and Principles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mochizuki, Yoko; Bryan, Audrey

2015-01-01

Although the role of education in addressing the challenges of climate change is increasingly recognized, the education sector remains underutilized as a strategic resource to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Education stakeholders in many countries have yet to develop a coherent framework for climate change education (CCE). This article…

The impact of first-generation biofuels on the depletion of the global phosphorus reserve.

PubMed

Hein, Lars; Leemans, Rik

2012-06-01

The large majority of biofuels to date is "first-generation" biofuel made from agricultural commodities. All first-generation biofuel production systems require phosphorus (P) fertilization. P is an essential plant nutrient, yet global reserves are finite. We argue that committing scarce P to biofuel production involves a trade-off between climate change mitigation and future food production. We examine biofuel production from seven types of feedstock, and find that biofuels at present consume around 2% of the global inorganic P fertilizer production. For all examined biofuels, with the possible exception of sugarcane, the contribution to P depletion exceeds the contribution to mitigating climate change. The relative benefits of biofuels can be increased through enhanced recycling of P, but high increases in P efficiency are required to balance climate change mitigation and P depletion impacts. We conclude that, with the current production systems, the production of first-generation biofuels compromises food production in the future.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

2015-07-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.; Samset, B. H.

2015-02-01

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.

PubMed

Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B

2015-01-01

Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Romero-Lankao, P.; Mehrotra, S.; Dhakal, S.; Bowman, T.; Ibrahim, S. Ali

2015-01-01

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

On-line Education Initiatives to Galvanize Climate Mitigation in the Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2014-12-01

The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) is supporting two different on-line education initiatives that teach about climate change while emphasizing informed and effective responses. The first is an on-line introductory level course for undergraduate students (http://c3.ssec.wisc.edu/) offered through the University of Wisconsin-Madison Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (AOS) department. Along with a lighter carbon footprint and the convenience of web-based access, students interact via Drupal forums, Google hangouts and twitter. Activities include several pedagogical tools with sustainability-related content and a final project requiring a discussion of regionally relevant mitigation responses to achieve low emission scenarios for assigned locations. The other initiative is a MOOC (massive open online course) focusing on the changing weather and climate in the Great Lakes Region. This 4-week course is set to launch February 23 2015. One of the primary goals of this MOOC will be having participants change four habits, one per week. Each behavior change will provide a personal benefit to participating individuals while also helping to mitigate the collective impacts of climate change. This presentation will share strategies and insights from both projects.

Projecting large-scale area changes in land use and land cover for terrestrial carbon analyses.

PubMed

Alig, Ralph J; Butler, Brett J

2004-04-01

One of the largest changes in US forest type areas over the last half-century has involved pine types in the South. The area of planted pine has increased more than 10-fold since 1950, mostly on private lands. Private landowners have responded to market incentives and government programs, including subsidized afforestation on marginal agricultural land. Timber harvest is a crucial disturbance affecting planted pine area, as other forest types are converted to planted pine after harvest. Conversely, however, many harvested pine plantations revert to other forest types, mainly due to passive regeneration behavior on nonindustrial private timberlands. We model land use and land cover changes as a basis for projecting future changes in planted pine area, to aid policy analysts concerned with mitigation activities for global climate change. Projections are prepared in two stages. Projected land use changes include deforestation due to pressures to develop rural land as the human population expands, which is a larger area than that converted from other rural lands (e.g., agriculture) to forestry. In the second stage, transitions among forest types are projected on land allocated to forestry. We consider reforestation, influences of timber harvest, and natural succession and disturbance processes. Baseline projections indicate a net increase of about 5.6 million ha in planted pine area in the South over the next 50 years, with a notable increase in sequestered carbon. Additional opportunities to expand pine plantation area warrant study of landowner behavior to aid in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change and attain other goals.

Constancy of local spread rates for buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare L.) in the Arizona Upland of the Sonoran Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsson, Aaryn D.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Crimmins, Michael A.; Marsh, Stuart E.

2012-01-01

In North American deserts, grass invasions threaten native vegetation via competition and altered fire regimes. Accurate prediction and successful mitigation of these invasions hinge on estimation of spread rates and their degree of constancy in time and space. We used high-resolution aerial photographs from 11 sites in the Santa Catalina Mountains, southern Arizona to reconstruct the spread of buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), a C4 perennial bunchgrass, since 1980. The total area infested was fit to a logistic model and residuals of the model were compared to climatic factors of the corresponding and lagged time periods. Infestations grew from small colonizing patches in the 1980s to 66 ha in 2008, doubling every 2.26–7.04 years since 1988. Although buffelgrass germination, establishment and distribution are favored by wet summers and warm winters, climate variables did not predict spread rates. Buffelgrass has grown at a constant rate, at least since 1988, when much of its expansion took place. In the study area, minimum requirements are met almost every year for germination and reproduction, establishing a consistent baseline for spread that manifests as a constant spread rate.

ELM Mitigation in Low-rotation ITER Baseline Scenario Plasmas on DIII-D with Deuterium Pellet Injection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baylor, L. R.

2016-10-01

ELM mitigation using high frequency D2 pellet ELM pacing has been demonstrated in ITER baseline scenario plasmas on DIII D with low rotation obtained with low NBI input torque. The ITER burning plasmas will have relatively low input torque and are expected to have low rotation. ELM mitigation by on-demand pellet ELM triggering has not been observed before in these conditions. New experiments on DIII-D in these conditions with 90 Hz D2 pellets have shown that significant mitigation of the divertor ELM peak heat flux by a factor of 8 is possible without detrimental effects to the plasma confinement. High-Z impurity accumulation is dramatically reduced at all input torques from 0.1 to 2.5 N-m. Fueling with high field side injection of D2 pellets has been employed to demonstrate that density buildup can be obtained simultaneously with ELM mitigation. The implications are that rapid pellet injection remains a promising technique to trigger on-demand ELMs in low rotating plasmas with greatly reduced peak flux while preventing impurity accumulation in ITER. Supported by the US DOE under DE-AC05-00OR22725, DE-FC02-04ER54698.

Climate Benefits of Potential Avoided Emissions from Forest Conversion Diminished by Albedo Warming: Comprehensive, Data-Driven Assessment for the US and Beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. A.; Gu, H.; Jiao, T.

2017-12-01

Avoided deforestation is a leading pathway for climate change mitigation, featuring prominently in many country's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, but its climate benefits remain contested, in part because of reports of large offsetting effects in some regions of the world. It is well known that avoiding forest to non-forest conversion prevents forest carbon release, and sustains forest carbon uptake, but also increases albedo thus diminishing the potency of this mitigation strategy. While the mechanisms are known, their relative importance and the resulting climate benefit remain unclear. This is in part due to a lack of quantitative assessments documenting geographic variation in rates of forest conversion, associated carbon emissions, resulting radiative forcing, and the magnitude of simultaneous albedo offsets. This study (i) quantifies the current rate of forest conversion and carbon release in the United States with Landsat remote sensing and a carbon assessment framework, and (ii) compares this to quantitative estimates of the radiative forcing from the corresponding albedo change. Albedo radiative forcing is assessed with a recently-generated, global atlas of land-cover-specific albedos derived from a fusion of MODIS and Landsat reflectances, combined with snow cover and solar radiation datasets. We document the degree to which albedo warming offsets carbon cooling from contemporary forest conversions taking place in different regions of the United States and identify the underlying drivers of spatial variability. We then extend this to other regions of the world where forests are under threat and where avoided deforestation is viewed as a primary tool for climate mitigation. Results shed light on the, at times contentious, debate about the efficacy of forest protection as a mitigation mechanism.

Mapping High Biomass Corridors for Climate and Biodiversity Co-Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.; Laporte, N. T.

2013-12-01

A key issue in global conservation is how climate mitigation activities can secure biodiversity co-benefits. Tropical deforestation releases significant amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere and results in widespread biodiversity loss. The dominant strategy for forest conservation has been protected area designation. However, maintaining biodiversity in protected areas requires ecological exchange with ecosystems in which they are embedded. At current funding levels, existing conservation strategies are unlikely to prevent further loss of connectivity between protected areas and surrounding landscapes. The emergence of REDD+, a mechanism for funding carbon emissions reductions from deforestation in developing countries, suggests an alignment of goals and financial resources for protecting forest carbon, maintaining biodiversity in protected areas, and minimizing loss of forest ecosystem services. Identifying, protecting and sustainably managing vegetation carbon stocks between protected areas can provide both climate mitigation benefits through avoided CO2 emissions from deforestation and biodiversity benefits through the targeted protection of forests that maintain connectivity between protected areas and surrounding ecosystems. We used a high resolution, pan-tropical map of vegetation carbon stocks derived from MODIS, GLAS lidar and field measurements to map corridors that traverse areas of highest aboveground biomass between protected areas. We mapped over 13,000 corridors containing 49 GtC, accounting for 14% of unprotected vegetation carbon stock in the tropics. In the majority of cases, carbon density in corridors was commensurate with that of the protected areas they connect, suggesting significant opportunities for achieving climate mitigation and biodiversity co-benefits. To further illustrate the utility of this approach, we conducted a multi-criteria analysis of corridors in the Brazilian Amazon, identifying high biodiversity, high vegetation carbon stock corridors with low opportunity costs which may be good candidates for inclusion in climate mitigation activities like those being considered under REDD+.

The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John; Blanford, Geoffrey J.

2014-04-01

This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 19 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the value of individual mitigation technologies such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration targets at 450 and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent requires massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A fragmented policy approach at the level of current ambition is inconsistent with these targets. The availability of a negative emissions technology, in most models biofuels withmore » CCS, proved to be a key element for achieving the climate targets. Robust characteristics of the transformation of the energy system are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy have largest value, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The individual value of low-carbon power technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology variability. Mitigation costs roughly double when moving from 550 ppm to 450 ppm CO2e, but remain below 3% of GDP for most models.« less

Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

2018-03-01

To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

Contribution of Temperature to Chilean Droughts Using Ensemble Climate Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Alfieri, L.; Naumann, G.; Garreaud, R. D.

2017-12-01

Precipitation deficit is traditionally considered as the main driver of drought events, however the evolution of drought conditions is also influenced by other variables such as temperature, wind speed and evapotranspiration. In view of global warming, the effect of rising temperatures may lead to increased socio-economic drought impacts, particularly in vulnerable developing countries. In this work, we used two drought indices to analyze the impacts of precipitation and temperature on the frequency, severity and duration of Chilean droughts (25°S-56°S) during the XXI century, using multi-model climate projections consistent with the high-end RCP 8.5 scenario. An ensemble of seven global CMIP5 simulations were used to drive the Earth System Model EC-EARTH3-HR v3.1 over the 1976-2100 period, in order to increase the spatial resolution from the original grid to 0.35°. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to describe the impact of precipitation on drought conditions, while the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to assess the effect of temperature -throughout changes in potential evapotranspiration- on drought characteristics at different time scales. Drought indices along with duration, severity and frequency of drought events were computed for a 30-year baseline period (1976-2005) and then compared to three 30-year periods representing short, medium and long-term scenarios (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). Indices obtained from climate simulations during the baseline period were compared against the corresponding values derived from ground observations. Results obtained with SPI-12 reveal a progressive decrease in precipitation in Chile, which is consistent through all climate models, though each of them shows a different spatial pattern. Simulations based on SPEI-12 show that the expected increase in evaporative demand (driven by the temperature increase) for the region is likely to exacerbate the severity and duration of drought events. Findings of this work are an important support for timely preparation of drought adaptation and mitigation plans to improve water management strategies and resilience during the XXI century.

Science and the governance of Australia's climate regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keenan, Rodney J.; Caripis, Lisa; Foerster, Anita; Godden, Lee; Peel, Jacqueline

2012-07-01

The promise of a scientifically sound policy approach to tackle greenhouse-gas emissions in Australia gives hope that the country's efforts to mitigate climate change can make an effective contribution to international objectives.

Air, Climate, and Energy Strategic Research Action Plan, 2016 – 2019

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

ACE research projects are organized into 5 topics: Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation; Emissions and Measurements; Atmospheric and Integrated Modeling Systems; Protecting Environmental Public Health; and Sustainable Energy and Mitigation

Climate change and transportation : challenges and opportunities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

Transportation in the United States is responsible for a disproportionate amount of global greenhouse gas emissions, : which contribute to climate change. To address the issue, strategies that seek to mitigate transportation-related : greenhouse gas ...

Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

2013-12-01

The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

Capital investment requirements for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation in power generation on near term to century time scales and global to regional spatial scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

Electrification plays a crucial role in cost-effective greenhouse gas emissions mitigation strategies. Such strategies in turn carry implications for financial capital markets. This paper explores the implication of climate mitigation policy for capital investment demands by the electric power sector on decade to century time scales. We go further to explore the implications of technology performance and the stringency of climate policy for capital investment demands by the power sector. Finally, we discuss the regional distribution of investment demands. We find that stabilizing GHG emissions will require additional investment in the electricity generation sector over and above investments that wouldmore » be need in the absence of climate policy, in the range of 16 to 29 Trillion US$ (60-110%) depending on the stringency of climate policy during the period 2015 to 2095 under default technology assumptions. This increase reflects the higher capital intensity of power systems that control emissions. Limits on the penetration of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technology could increase costs substantially. Energy efficiency improvements can reduce the investment requirement by 8 to21 Trillion US$ (default technology assumptions), depending on climate policy scenario with higher savings being obtained under the most stringent climate policy. The heaviest investments in power generation were observed in the China, India, SE Asia and Africa regions with the latter three regions dominating in the second half of the 21st century.« less

Climate change impacts on yields and soil carbon in dryland agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Dryland agroecosystems could be a sizable sink for atmospheric carbon (C) due to their spatial extent and level of degradation, providing climate change mitigation. We examined productivity and soil C dynamics under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5; RCP 8.5), utilizing long-term experiment...

Tools for adaptation and mitigation of climate change on southwestern working-lands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In February 2014, the USDA established 7 Hubs and 3 Sub Hubs across the nation to assist farmers, ranchers and foresters in adapting to the effects of climate change. Specific vulnerabilities related to projected climatic changes in the Southwest (SW) include water scarcity, the effects of elevated ...

Branching out: Agroforestry as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool for agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The United States and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Predictions of future climate conditions include longer gr...

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency

EPA Science Inventory

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect o...

Global climate forcing from albedo change caused by large-scale deforestation and reforestation: quantification and attribution of geographic variation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies...

Mitigation strategies and unforseen consequences: A systematic assessment of the adaption of upper midwest agriculture to future climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Doering, O.; Lowenberg-DeBoer, J.; Habeck, M.

1997-12-31

Our starting point is the assumption of global climate change that doubles CO{sub 2} in the Upper Midwest by 2050. This work then concentrates on determining agriculture in the Upper Midwest successfully adapts to such a climate change.

A Screening-Level Approach for Comparing Risks Affecting Aquatic Ecosystem Services over Socio-Environmental Gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harmon, T. C.; Conde, D.; Villamizar, S. R.; Reid, B.; Escobar, J.; Rusak, J.; Hoyos, N.; Scordo, F.; Perillo, G. M.; Piccolo, M. C.; Zilio, M.; Velez, M.

2015-12-01

Assessing risks to aquatic ecosystems services (ES) is challenging and time-consuming, and effective strategies for prioritizing more detailed assessment efforts are needed. We propose a screening-level risk analysis (SRA) approach that scales ES risk using socioeconomic and environmental indices to capture anthropic and climatic pressures, as well as the capacity for institutional responses to those pressures. The method considers ES within a watershed context, and uses expert input to prioritize key services and the associated pressures that threaten them. The SRA approach focuses on estimating ES risk affect factors, which are the sum of the intensity factors for all hazards or pressures affecting the ES. We estimate the pressure intensity factors in a novel manner, basing them on the nation's (i) human development (proxied by Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index, IHDI), (ii) environmental regulatory and monitoring state (Environmental Performance Index, EPI) and (iii) the current level of water stress in the watershed (baseline water stress, BWS). Anthropic intensity factors for future conditions are derived from the baseline values based on the nation's 10-year trend in IHDI and EPI; ES risks in nations with stronger records of change are rewarded more/penalized less in estimates for good/poor future management scenarios. Future climatic intensity factors are tied to water stress estimates based on two general circulation model (GCM) outcomes. We demonstrate the method for an international array of six sites representing a wide range of socio-environmental settings. The outcomes illustrate novel consequences of the scaling scheme. Risk affect factors may be greater in a highly developed region under intense climatic pressure, or in less well-developed regions due to human factors (e.g., poor environmental records). As a screening-level tool, the SRA approach offers considerable promise for ES risk comparisons among watersheds and regions so that detailed assessment, management and mitigation efforts can be effectively prioritized.

Geoengineering to Avoid Overshoot: An Uncertainty Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.

2009-04-01

Geoengineering (or climate engineering) using stratospheric sulfur injections (Crutzen, 2006) has been called for research in case of an urgent need for stopping global warming when other mitigation efforts were exhausted. Although there are a number of concerns over this idea (e.g. Robock, 2008), it is still useful to consider geoengineering as a possible method to limit warming caused by overshoot. Overshoot is a feature accompanied by low stabilizations scenarios aiming for a stringent target (Rao et al., 2008) in which total radiative forcing temporarily exceeds the target before reaching there. Scenarios achieving a 50% emission reduction by 2050 produces overshoot. Overshoot could cause sustained warming for decades due to the inertia of the climate system. If stratospheric sulfur injections were to be used as a "last resort" to avoid overshoot, what would be the suitable start-year and injection profile of such an intervention? Wigley (2006) examined climate response to combined mitigation/geoengineering scenarios with the intent to avert overshoot. Wigley's analysis demonstrated a basic potential of such a combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to avoid temperature overshoot - however it considered only simplistic sulfur injection profiles (all started in 2010), just one mitigation scenario, and did not examine the sensitivity of the climate response to any underlying uncertainties. This study builds upon Wigley's premise of the combined mitigation/geoengineering approach and brings associated uncertainty into the analysis. First, this study addresses the question as to how much geoengineering intervention would be needed to avoid overshoot by considering associated uncertainty? Then, would a geoengineering intervention of such a magnitude including uncertainty be permissible in considering all the other side effects? This study begins from the supposition that geoengineering could be employed to cap warming at 2.0°C since preindustrial. A few mitigation scenarios having overshoot are formulated. Optimal injection profiles (start-year and magnitude) for capping temperature rise at 2.0°C are calculated for each mitigation scenario. The sensitivity of such results to the uncertain parameters (climate sensitivity, tropospheric aerosol forcing, and ocean diffusivity) is then examined - in particular, I account for the inter-dependency of the estimates of these parameters such that they are consistent with historical observations (e.g. temperature records) by using an inverse estimation approach. I use the simple climate model ACC2 (Tanaka and Kriegler et al., 2007; Tanaka, 2008) - which (unlike Wigley's MAGICC model (Wigley and Raper, 2001)) includes an inversion setup that allows for the exploration of parameter inter-dependency based on historical observational constraints. References Crutzen, P. J. (2006) Albedo enhancement by stratospheric sulfur injections: a contribution to resolve a policy dilemma? Climatic Change, 77, 211-219. Rao, S., K. Riahi, E. Stehfest, D. van Vuuren, C. Cho, M. den Elzen, M. Isaac, J. van Vliet (2008) IMAGE and MESSAGE scenarios limiting GHG concentration to low levels. Interim Report at International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) IR-08-020. 57 pp. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Admin/PUB/Documents/IR-08-020.pdf Robock, A. (2008) 20 reasons why geoengineering may be a bad idea. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 64, 14-18. Tanaka, K., E. Kriegler, T. Bruckner, G. Hooss, W. Knorr, T. Raddatz (2007) Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate Model (ACC2): description of the forward and inverse modes. Reports on Earth System Science No. 40. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. 188 pp. http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/wissenschaft/publikationen/erdsystemforschung.html Tanaka, K. (2008) Inverse estimation for the simple Earth system model ACC2 and its applications. Ph.D. dissertation. Hamburg, Germany: Hamburg Universität, International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, 296 pp. http://www.sub.uni-hamburg.de/opus/volltexte/2008/3654/ Wigley, T. M. L., S. C. B. Raper (2001) Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming. Science, 293, 451-454. Wigley, T. M. L. (2006) A combined mitigation/geoengineering approach to climate stabilization. Science, 314, 452-454.

Effects of baseline conditions on the simulated hydrologic response to projected climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koczot, Kathryn M.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.

2011-01-01

Changes in temperature and precipitation projected from five general circulation models, using one late-twentieth-century and three twenty-first-century emission scenarios, were downscaled to three different baseline conditions. Baseline conditions are periods of measured temperature and precipitation data selected to represent twentieth-century climate. The hydrologic effects of the climate projections are evaluated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), which is a watershed hydrology simulation model. The Almanor Catchment in the North Fork of the Feather River basin, California, is used as a case study. Differences and similarities between PRMS simulations of hydrologic components (i.e., snowpack formation and melt, evapotranspiration, and streamflow) are examined, and results indicate that the selection of a specific time period used for baseline conditions has a substantial effect on some, but not all, hydrologic variables. This effect seems to be amplified in hydrologic variables, which accumulate over time, such as soil-moisture content. Results also indicate that uncertainty related to the selection of baseline conditions should be evaluated using a range of different baseline conditions. This is particularly important for studies in basins with highly variable climate, such as the Almanor Catchment.

Bioenergy production and sustainable development: science base for policymaking remains limited.

PubMed

Robledo-Abad, Carmenza; Althaus, Hans-Jörg; Berndes, Göran; Bolwig, Simon; Corbera, Esteve; Creutzig, Felix; Garcia-Ulloa, John; Geddes, Anna; Gregg, Jay S; Haberl, Helmut; Hanger, Susanne; Harper, Richard J; Hunsberger, Carol; Larsen, Rasmus K; Lauk, Christian; Leitner, Stefan; Lilliestam, Johan; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Muys, Bart; Nordborg, Maria; Ölund, Maria; Orlowsky, Boris; Popp, Alexander; Portugal-Pereira, Joana; Reinhard, Jürgen; Scheiffle, Lena; Smith, Pete

2017-03-01

The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policymaking. Our results indicate that knowledge on the sustainable development impacts of bioenergy production is concentrated in a few well-studied countries, focuses on environmental and economic impacts, and mostly relates to dedicated agricultural biomass plantations. The scope and methodological approaches in studies differ widely and only a small share of the studies sufficiently reports on context and/or baseline conditions, which makes it difficult to get a general understanding of the attribution of impacts. Nevertheless, we identified regional patterns of positive or negative impacts for all categories - environmental, economic, institutional, social and technological. In general, economic and technological impacts were more frequently reported as positive, while social and environmental impacts were more frequently reported as negative (with the exception of impacts on direct substitution of GHG emission from fossil fuel). More focused and transparent research is needed to validate these patterns and develop a strong science underpinning for establishing policies and governance agreements that prevent/mitigate negative and promote positive impacts from bioenergy production.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.

PubMed

Kong, Deguo; MacLeod, Matthew; Cousins, Ian T

2014-09-01

The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate impacts

PubMed Central

Wohl, Ellen E.; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Zhang, Jian Yun

2000-01-01

Assessing climate impacts involves identifying sources and characteristics of climate variability, and mitigating potential negative impacts of that variability. Associated research focuses on climate driving mechanisms, biosphere–hydrosphere responses and mediation, and human responses. Examples of climate impacts come from 1998 flooding in the Yangtze River Basin and hurricanes in the Caribbean and Central America. Although we have limited understanding of the fundamental driving-response interactions associated with climate variability, increasingly powerful measurement and modeling techniques make assessing climate impacts a rapidly developing frontier of science. PMID:11027321

Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

2017-04-01

Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, J. G.

2010-12-01

Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints over the coming century, interacting with a changing climate. Examples of interactions that need further exploration include the degree to which increases in soil organic matter to enhance carbon sequestration will improve system resilience and help mitigate the effects of an increase in climate variability, and how we can optimize the role of below-ground microbial communities in methane and nitrous-oxide emissions and sinks as well as in nutrient cycling and plant-water relations. These and other key areas where agroecosystem research is needed to advance policy will be discussed.

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

Emerging Forms of Climate Protection Governance: Urban Initiatives in the European Union

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. K.; Brunner, E.

2006-12-01

Changes in climate patterns are expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, with adverse impacts on urban populations currently stressed by poverty, health and economic inequities. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanization of poverty exists, with increased challenges for local governments to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities. In the context of these two overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritized for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive and mitigative responses to climate change. Urban managers, and transnational networks of municipalities and non-state actors, have taken an increasingly active role in climate protection, through research, policies, programs and agreements on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Concerns for urban impacts of climate change include the potential increase in frequency and intensity of damaging extreme weather events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, heavy rainfall or drought, and coastal flooding and erosion, and potentially adverse impacts on infrastructure, energy systems, and public health. Higher average summertime temperatures in temperate zone cities are also associated with environmental and public health liabilities such as decreased air quality and increased peak electrical demand. We review municipal climate protection programs, generally categorized as approaches based on technological innovation (e.g., new materials); changes in behavior and public education (e.g., use of cooling centers); and improvements in urban design (e.g., zoning for mixed land-use; the use of water, vegetation and plazas to reduce the urban heat island effect). Climate protection initiatives in three European cities are assessed within the context of the global collective efforts enacted by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Initiatives in Stockholm, London and Milan provide evidence that local actions are inevitable and of central importance to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, the urban heat island effect, and extreme weather events.

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project establishes a new multi-model framework to systematically assess the impacts, economic damages, and risks from climate change in the United States. The primary goal of this framework to estimate how climate change impacts and damages in the United States are avoided or reduced due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation scenarios. Scenarios are designed to explore key uncertainties around the measurement of these changes. The modeling exercise presented in this Special Issue includes two integrated assessment models and 15 sectoral models encompassing six broad impacts sectors - water resources, electric power, infrastructure, human health, ecosystems, and forests. Three consistent emissions scenarios are used to analyze the benefits of global GHG mitigation targets: a reference and two policy scenarios, with total radiative forcing in 2100 of 10.0W/m2, 4.5W/m2, and 3.7W/m2. A range of climate sensitivities, climate models, natural variability measures, and structural uncertainties of sectoral models are examined to explore the implications of key uncertainties. This overview paper describes the motivations, goals, design, and academic contribution of the CIRA modeling exercise and briefly summarizes the subsequent papers in this Special Issue. A summary of results across impact sectors is provided showing that: GHG mitigation provides benefits to the United States that increase over

Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Hirsch, Annette L.; Davin, Edouard L.; Donat, Markus G.; Hirschi, Martin; Lenton, Andrew; Wilhelm, Micah; Kravitz, Ben

2018-02-01

Greenhouse gas emissions urgently need to be reduced. Even with a step up in mitigation, the goal of limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 °C remains challenging. Consequences of missing these goals are substantial, especially on regional scales. Because progress in the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions has been slow, climate engineering schemes are increasingly being discussed. But global schemes remain controversial and have important shortcomings. A reduction of global mean temperature through global-scale management of solar radiation could lead to strong regional disparities and affect rainfall patterns. On the other hand, active management of land radiative effects on a regional scale represents an alternative option of climate engineering that has been little discussed. Regional land radiative management could help to counteract warming, in particular hot extremes in densely populated and important agricultural regions. Regional land radiative management also raises some ethical issues, and its efficacy would be limited in time and space, depending on crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. But through its more regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, regional land radiative management avoids some of the main shortcomings associated with global radiation management. We argue that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered more prominently when assessing regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation as well as ecosystem services.

Effects of climate and land cover on hydrology in the southeastern U.S.: Potential impacts on watershed planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland; Regan, R. Steve; Markstrom, Steven

2015-01-01

The hydrologic response to statistically downscaled general circulation model simulations of daily surface climate and land cover through 2099 was assessed for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin located in the southeastern United States. Projections of climate, urbanization, vegetation, and surface-depression storage capacity were used as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System to simulate projected impacts on hydrologic response. Surface runoff substantially increased when land cover change was applied. However, once the surface depression storage was added to mitigate the land cover change and increases of surface runoff (due to urbanization), the groundwater flow component then increased. For hydrologic studies that include projections of land cover change (urbanization in particular), any analysis of runoff beyond the change in total runoff should include effects of stormwater management practices as these features affect flow timing and magnitude and may be useful in mitigating land cover change impacts on streamflow. Potential changes in water availability and how biota may respond to changes in flow regime in response to climate and land cover change may prove challenging for managers attempting to balance the needs of future development and the environment. However, these models are still useful for assessing the relative impacts of climate and land cover change and for evaluating tradeoffs when managing to mitigate different stressors.

A sensible climate solution for the boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astrup, Rasmus; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Genet, Hélène; Lutz, David A.; Bright, Ryan M.

2018-01-01

Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation-adaption strategy with multiple benefits.

Iowa Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Report

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The findings of a pilot project to work with stakeholders and governments in Iowa to identify barriers to and incentives for considering regional effects of climate change in hazard mitigation planning and other community planning processes.

Predictors and correlates for weight changes in patients co-treated with olanzapine and weight mitigating agents; a post-hoc analysis.

PubMed

Stauffer, Virginia L; Lipkovich, Ilya; Hoffmann, Vicki Poole; Heinloth, Alexandra N; McGregor, H Scott; Kinon, Bruce J

2009-03-28

This study focuses on exploring the relationship between changes in appetite or eating behaviors and subsequent weight change for adult patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder treated with olanzapine and adjunctive potential weight mitigating pharmacotherapy. The aim is not to compare different weight mitigating agents, but to evaluate patients' characteristics and changes in their eating behaviors during treatment. Identification of patient subgroups with different degrees of susceptibility to the effect of weight mitigating agents during olanzapine treatment may aid clinicians in treatment decisions. Data were obtained from 3 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 16-week clinical trials. Included were 158 patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and a body mass index (BMI) > or = 25 kg/m2 who had received olanzapine treatment in combination with nizatidine (n = 68), sibutramine (n = 42), or amantadine (n = 48). Individual patients were analyzed for categorical weight loss > or= 2 kg and weight gain > or = 1 kg. Variables that were evaluated as potential predictors of weight outcomes included baseline patient characteristics, factors of the Eating Inventory, individual items of the Eating Behavior Assessment, and the Visual Analog Scale. Predictors/correlates of weight loss > or = 2 kg included: high baseline BMI, low baseline interest in food, and a decrease from baseline to endpoint in appetite, hunger, or cravings for carbohydrates. Reduced cognitive restraint, increase in hunger, and increased overeating were associated with a higher probability of weight gain > or = 1 kg. The association between weight gain and lack of cognitive restraint in the presence of increased appetite suggests potential benefit of psychoeducational counseling in conjunction with adjunctive pharmacotherapeutic agents in limiting weight gain during antipsychotic drug therapy. This analysis was not a clinical trial and did not involve any medical intervention.

Energy and technology lessons since Rio

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, James A.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.

2012-11-01

The 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change created the basic international architecture for addressing climate change. That treaty was negotiated at a time when the research literature examining emissions mitigation and the role of energy technology was relatively limited. In the two subsequent decades a great deal has been learned. The problem of stabilizing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has proved far more difficult than envisioned in 1992 and the role of technology appears even more important when emissions mitigation strategies are co-developed in the context of multiple competing ends.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, D.

Steps to mitigate global climate change are being negotiated internationally, but it is on the local level that its effects will be felt and actions are taken. Like many midlatitude coastal cities, metropolitan New York could expect serious consequences from global warming: killing hot spells, worsened ozone pollution, uncertain water supply, and inundation of its waterfront from higher sea level and violent storms. Seen at the local level, the opportunities and limitations of measures to mitigate or adapt to climate change become explicit. Indirect local effects from changes elsewhere in the world must also be considered.

Focusing Events and Constrains on Policy Addressing Long-Term Climate Change Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donovan, K.

2014-12-01

When policy makers are aware of immediate and long-term risks to communities, what do they do to plan for and mitigate the effects of climate change? This paper addresses that question in two ways. First, as an organizing framework it presents an overview of the empirical evidence on focusing events. Focusing events are defined as sudden, rare events that reveal harm or the potential for future harm that the general public and policy makers become aware of simultaneously. These large-scale events are typically natural and disasters, crisis, or technological accidents. This paper considers the empirical evidence of the relationship between focusing events, the harm revealed by the event and policy change aimed at reducing future risk of harm. Second, this paper reviews the case of flood mitigation policy in the United States from 1968 to 2008. It considers the ways in which policy makers have and have not integrated future flood risks into mitigation policy and planning, particularly after large-scale floods. It analyzes the political, intergovernmental, demographic and geographic factors that have promoted and constrained long-term flood mitigation policy. This paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning and implications of potential focusing events and constrains on policy for long-term climate change concerns.

Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, S.; Sun, G.; Cohen, E.; McNulty, S. G.; Caldwell, P.; Duan, K.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr-1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr-1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr-1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m-2 yr-1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr-1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

Overcoming the risk of inaction from emissions uncertainty in smallholder agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berry, N. J.; Ryan, C. M.

2013-03-01

The potential for improving productivity and increasing the resilience of smallholder agriculture, while also contributing to climate change mitigation, has recently received considerable political attention (Beddington et al 2012). Financial support for improving smallholder agriculture could come from performance-based funding including sale of carbon credits or certified commodities, payments for ecosystem services, and nationally appropriate mitigation action (NAMA) budgets, as well as more traditional sources of development and environment finance. Monitoring the greenhouse gas fluxes associated with changes to agricultural practice is needed for performance-based mitigation funding, and efforts are underway to develop tools to quantify mitigation achieved and assess trade-offs and synergies between mitigation and other livelihood and environmental priorities (Olander 2012). High levels of small scale variability in carbon stocks and emissions in smallholder agricultural systems (Ziegler et al 2012) mean that data intensive approaches are needed for precise and unbiased mitigation monitoring. The cost of implementing such monitoring programmes is likely to be high, and this introduces the risk that projects will not be developed in areas where there is the greatest need for agricultural improvements, which are likely to correspond with areas where existing data or research infrastructure are lacking. When improvements to livelihoods and food security are expected as co-benefits of performance-based mitigation finance, the risk of inaction is borne by the rural poor as well as the global climate. In situ measurement of carbon accumulation in smallholders' soils are not usually feasible because of the costs associated with sampling in a heterogeneous landscape, although technological advances could improve the situation (Milori et al 2012). Alternatives to in situ measurement are to estimate greenhouse gas fluxes by extrapolating information from existing research to other areas with similar land uses and environmental conditions, or to combine information on land use activities with process-based models that describe expected emissions and carbon accumulation under specified conditions. Unfortunately long-term studies that have measured biomass and soil organic carbon accumulation in smallholder agriculture are scarce, and default values developed for national level emissions assessments (IPCC 2006) fail to capture local variability and may not scale linearly, so cannot be applied at the project scale without introducing considerable uncertainty and the potential for bias. If there is reliable information on the agricultural activities and environmental conditions at a project site, process-based models can provide accurate estimations of agricultural greenhouse gas fluxes that capture temporal and spatial variability (Olander 2012) but collecting the necessary data to parameterize and drive the models can be costly and time consuming. Assessing and monitoring greenhouse gas fluxes in smallholder agriculture therefore involves a balance between the resources required to collect information from thousands of smallholders across large areas, and the accuracy and precision of model predictions. Accuracy, or the absence of bias, is clearly an important consideration in the quantification of mitigation benefits for performance-based finance since a bias towards over-estimation of mitigation achieved would risk misallocating limited finance to projects that have not achieved mitigation benefits. Such a bias would also lead to a net increase in emissions if credits were used to offset emissions elsewhere. The accuracy of model predictions is related to uncertainty in model input data, which affects the precision of predictions, and errors in the model structure (Olander 2012). To limit the risk that projects receive credit for mitigation benefits that are not real, a precise-or-conservative approach to carbon accounting has emerged that requires projects to report mitigation benefits to a prescribed level of precision—for example with a 90% confidence interval that is less than 20% of the estimated mitigation benefit; and if this level of precision is not reached then the lower confidence limit of the value is encouraged (VCS 2012). This helps to ensure projects that lack precision in their estimates are biased towards an underestimation of mitigation benefits, which helps limit the risk of increasing net greenhouse gas emissions. It can also mean that finance from the sale of emission reduction certificates is insufficient to support smallholder agricultural projects without donor assistance to cover the cost of project establishment (Seebauer et al 2012). Understanding the mitigation benefits of improving agricultural practice is important for many purposes other than developing carbon offsets however, and with appropriate accounting approaches risks to smallholders can be reduced and scarce resources channelled to improving land use practices. Less precision is tolerable when making payments for a broad range ecosystem services, or assessing the impacts of donor support, than it is for industrial carbon offsets. Approaches that have greater uncertainty in expected emission reductions or removals may therefore be more appropriate if there is an equal emphasis on the livelihood and environmental benefits of projects as there is on mitigation benefits. One way to balance the risk of inaction against the need for accuracy is to use process-based models in greenhouse gas accounting and decision support tools, which give users control over the precision and cost of their accounting. Such models can be parameterized and driven using readily available information or best estimates for input data, as well as site specific environmental and activity data. The potential for bias in model predictions can be limited by making use of appropriate models that are validated against regionally specific data. Although process-based models have been adopted for quantifying mitigation benefit in smallholder agriculture systems (for example Seebauer et al 2012), their use is currently limited to those with specialist knowledge or access to detailed site specific information. Web-based tools that link existing global, regional, and local environmental data with process-based models (such as RothC (Coleman and Jenkinson 1996), CENTURY (Parton et al 1987), DNDC (Li et al 1994) and DAYCENT (Del Grosso et al 2002)) that have been validated for specific areas allow users to generate initial estimates of the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural systems simply by specifying the location and intervention. This can support assessments of the feasibility of supporting these interventions through various funding sources. The same tools can also generate accurate, site specific assessments and monitoring to varying levels of detail, when required, given the inclusion of new data collected in situ . When accounting for greenhouse gases in smallholder agriculture systems users should be free to decide whether it is worthwhile to invest in collecting input data to estimate mitigation benefits with sufficient precision to meet the requirements for carbon offsets, or if greater uncertainty is tolerable. By using tools that do not require specialist support and accepting estimates of mitigation benefits that are less precise, and not necessarily conservative, those providing performance-based finance can help ensure that a greater proportion of limited budgets are spent on the activities that directly benefit smallholders and that are likely to benefit the global climate. The Small-Holder Agriculture Monitoring and Baseline Assessment methodology and prototype tool (SHAMBA 2012), which has been trialled with fifteen agroforestry and conservation agriculture projects in Malawi and is currently under review for validation under the Plan Vivo Standard (Plan Vivo 2012), provides a proof of this concept and a platform on which greater functionality and flexibility can be built. We hope that this, and other similar initiatives, will deliver approaches to greenhouse gas accounting that reduce risks and maximize benefits to smallholder farmers. References Beddington J R et al 2012 What next for agriculture after Durban? Science 335 289-90 Coleman K and Jenkinson D S 1996 RothC 26.3 a model for the turnover of carbon in soil Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter Models Using Existing, Long-Term Datasets ed D S Powlson, P Smith and J U Smith (Heidelberg: Springer) Del Grosso S J, Ojima D S, Parton W J, Mosier A R, Petereson G A and Schimel D S 2002 Simulated effects of dryland cropping intensification on soil organic matter and greenhouse gas exchanges using the DAYCENT ecosystem model Environ. Pollut. 116 S75-83 IPCC (Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Prepared by the National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme (Hayama: IGES) (www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html) Li C, Frolking S and Harris R 1994 Modeling carbon biogeochemistry in agricultural soils Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 8 237-54 Milori D M B P, Segini A, Da Silva W T L, Posadas A, Mares V, Quiroz R and Ladislau M N 2012 Emerging techniques for soil carbon measurements Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) Olander L P 2012 Using biogeochemical process models to quantify greenhouse gas mitigation from agricultural management Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) Parton W J, Schimel D S, Cole C V and Ojima D S 1987 Analysis of factors controlling soil organic matter levels in Great Plains grasslands Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 51 1173-9 Plan Vivo 2012 The Plan Vivo Standard For Community Payments for Ecosystem Services Programmes Version 2012 (available from: www.planvivo.org/) Seebauer M et al 2012 Carbon accounting for smallholder agricultural soil carbon projects Climate Change Mitigation and Agriculture ed E Wollenberg, A Nihart, M-L Tapio-Bistrom and M Greig-Gran (Abingdon: Earthscan) SHAMBA (Small-Holder Agriculture Monitoring and Baseline Assessment) 2012 Project webpage: http://tinyurl.com/shambatool VCS (Verified Carbon Standard) 2012 Veified Carbon Standard Requiements Document Version 3.2 (http://v-c-s.org/program-documents) Ziegler A D et al 2012 Carbon outcomes of major land-cover transitions in SE Asia: great uncertainties and REDD+ policy implications Glob. Change Biol. 18 3087-99

Improving predictions of the effects of extreme events, land use, and climate change on the hydrology of watersheds in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavidez, Rubianca; Jackson, Bethanna; Maxwell, Deborah; Paringit, Enrico

2016-05-01

Due to its location within the typhoon belt, the Philippines is vulnerable to tropical cyclones that can cause destructive floods. Climate change is likely to exacerbate these risks through increases in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. To protect populations and infrastructure, disaster risk management in the Philippines focuses on real-time flood forecasting and structural measures such as dikes and retaining walls. Real-time flood forecasting in the Philippines mostly utilises two models from the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC): the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) for watershed modelling, and the River Analysis System (RAS) for inundation modelling. This research focuses on using non-structural measures for flood mitigation, such as changing land use management or watershed rehabilitation. This is being done by parameterising and applying the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) model to the Cagayan de Oro watershed (1400 km2) in southern Philippines. The LUCI model is capable of identifying areas providing ecosystem services such as flood mitigation and agricultural productivity, and analysing trade-offs between services. It can also assess whether management interventions could enhance or degrade ecosystem services at fine spatial scales. The LUCI model was used to identify areas within the watershed that are providing flood mitigating services and areas that would benefit from management interventions. For the preliminary comparison, LUCI and HEC-HMS were run under the same scenario: baseline land use and the extreme rainfall event of Typhoon Bopha. The hydrographs from both models were then input to HEC-RAS to produce inundation maps. The novelty of this research is two-fold: (1) this type of ecosystem service modelling has not been carried out in the Cagayan de Oro watershed; and (2) this is the first application of the LUCI model in the Philippines. Since this research is still ongoing, the results presented in this paper are preliminary. As the land use and soil parameterisation for this watershed are refined and more scenarios are run through the model, more robust comparisons can be made between the hydrographs produced by LUCI and HEC-HMS and how those differences affect the inundation map produced by HEC-RAS.

Agricultural climate impacts assessment for economic modeling and decision support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Beach, R.; Zhang, X.; Zhao, K.; Monier, E.

2013-12-01

A range of approaches can be used in the application of climate change projections to agricultural impacts assessment. Climate projections can be used directly to drive crop models, which in turn can be used to provide inputs for agricultural economic or integrated assessment models. These model applications, and the transfer of information between models, must be guided by the state of the science. But the methodology must also account for the specific needs of stakeholders and the intended use of model results beyond pure scientific inquiry, including meeting the requirements of agencies responsible for designing and assessing policies, programs, and regulations. Here we present methodology and results of two climate impacts studies that applied climate model projections from CMIP3 and from the EPA Climate Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) project in a crop model (EPIC - Environmental Policy Indicator Climate) in order to generate estimates of changes in crop productivity for use in an agricultural economic model for the United States (FASOM - Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model). The FASOM model is a forward-looking dynamic model of the US forest and agricultural sector used to assess market responses to changing productivity of alternative land uses. The first study, focused on climate change impacts on the UDSA crop insurance program, was designed to use available daily climate projections from the CMIP3 archive. The decision to focus on daily data for this application limited the climate model and time period selection significantly; however for the intended purpose of assessing impacts on crop insurance payments, consideration of extreme event frequency was critical for assessing periodic crop failures. In a second, coordinated impacts study designed to assess the relative difference in climate impacts under a no-mitigation policy and different future climate mitigation scenarios, the stakeholder specifically requested an assessment of a mitigation level of 3.7 W/m2, as well as consideration of different levels of climate sensitivity (2, 3, 4.5 and 6oC) and different initial conditions for addressing uncertainty. Since the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 protocols did not include this mitigation level or consider alternative levels of climate sensitivity, additional climate projections were required. These two cases will be discussed to illustrate some of the trade-offs made in development of methodologies for climate impact assessments that are intended for a specific user or audience, and oriented towards addressing a specific topic of interest and providing useable results. This involvement of stakeholders from the design phase of climate impacts methodology serves to both define the appropriate method for the question at hand and also to engage and inform the stakeholders of the myriad options and uncertainties associated with different methodology choices. This type of engagement should benefit decision making in the long run through greater stakeholder understanding of the science of future climate model projections, scenarios, the climate impacts sector models and the types of outputs that can be generated by each along with the respective uncertainties at each step of the climate impacts assessment process.

Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David L; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-03

For more than a decade, the target of keeping global warming below 2 °C has been a key focus of the international climate debate. In response, the scientific community has published a number of scenario studies that estimate the costs of achieving such a target. Producing these estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well known, but poorly quantified, uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on the one hand, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other hand, has spent years improving its understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases. This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty in the cost of mitigation scenarios but has been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in only a rudimentary manner, that is, for equilibrium conditions. Here we bridge this gap between the two research communities by generating distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific values, taking into account uncertainties in four factors: geophysical, technological, social and political. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by geophysical uncertainties, social factors influencing future energy demand and, lastly, technological uncertainties surrounding the availability of greenhouse gas mitigation options. Our information on temperature risk and mitigation costs provides crucial information for policy-making, because it clarifies the relative importance of mitigation costs, energy demand and the timing of global action in reducing the risk of exceeding a global temperature increase of 2 °C, or other limits such as 3 °C or 1.5 °C, across a wide range of scenarios.

Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

PubMed

Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

2006-06-24

It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaption Measures for Egypt's Nile Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abutaleb, Khaled Abubakr Ali; Mohammed, Asmaa Hassan El-Sayed; Ahmed, Mahmoud H. Mohamed

2018-04-01

During the last few decades there has been growing concern about the impacts of climate change. A significant number of institutions, research centers, universities and governments have funded projects in addition to work done by independent scholars and assessors studying this phenomenon, in particular, to identify vulnerability, mitigation and adaptation against associated risks. Egypt is among the international community which took part in numerous studies, research activities, conferences, seminars and meetings attempting to address climate change and its associated risks. Egypt is particularly concerned with the threat to the Nile Delta as it is considered a low-lying land at high risk. The aim of this paper is to review current and previous projects, technical reports and pilot studies, concerning risk assessments, mitigation, and adaptation strategies for climate change in Egypt. This, in turn, will aid in decision making regarding future funding and establishing of research related to climate change in Egypt. This paper will also highlight the weaknesses and strengths of policymakers solely relying on one or more of these studies.

Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

PubMed Central

Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

2014-01-01

The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320