NASA's Pleiades Supercomputer Crunches Data For Groundbreaking Analysis and Visualizations

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-11-23

The Pleiades supercomputer at NASA's Ames Research Center, recently named the 13th fastest computer in the world, provides scientists and researchers high-fidelity numerical modeling of complex systems and processes. By using detailed analyses and visualizations of large-scale data, Pleiades is helping to advance human knowledge and technology, from designing the next generation of aircraft and spacecraft to understanding the Earth's climate and the mysteries of our galaxy.

Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.

2015-11-01

Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them.

PubMed

Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P

2015-11-17

Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

Understanding the Global Water and Energy Cycle Through Assimilation of Precipitation-Related Observations: Lessons from TRMM and Prospects for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara; daSilva, Arlindo; Li, Frank; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Understanding the Earth's climate and how it responds to climate perturbations relies on what we know about how atmospheric moisture, clouds, latent heating, and the large-scale circulation vary with changing climatic conditions. The physical process that links these key climate elements is precipitation. Improving the fidelity of precipitation-related fields in global analyses is essential for gaining a better understanding of the global water and energy cycle. In recent years, research and operational use of precipitation observations derived from microwave sensors such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have shown the tremendous potential of using these data to improve global modeling, data assimilation, and numerical weather prediction. We will give an overview of the benefits of assimilating TRMM and SSM/I rain rates and discuss developmental strategies for using space-based rainfall and rainfall-related observations to improve forecast models and climate datasets in preparation for the proposed multi-national Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them

PubMed Central

Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.

2015-01-01

Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future. PMID:26573384

Alien Phytogeographic Regions of Southern Africa: Numerical Classification, Possible Drivers, and Regional Threats

PubMed Central

Hugo, Sanet; Van Rensburg, Berndt J.; Van Wyk, Abraham E.; Steenkamp, Yolande

2012-01-01

The distributions of naturalised alien plant species that have invaded natural or semi-natural habitat are often geographically restricted by the environmental conditions in their new range, implying that alien species with similar environmental requirements and tolerances may form assemblages and characterise particular areas. The aim of this study was to use objective numerical techniques to reveal any possible alien phytogeographic regions (i.e. geographic areas with characteristic alien plant assemblages) in southern Africa. Quarter degree resolution presence records of naturalised alien plant species of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland, Namibia and Botswana were analysed through a divisive hierarchical classification technique, and the output was plotted on maps for further interpretation. The analyses revealed two main alien phytogeographic regions that could be subdivided into eight lower level phytogeographic regions. Along with knowledge of the environmental requirements of the characteristic species and supported by further statistical analyses, we hypothesised on the main drivers of alien phytogeographic regions, and suggest that environmental features such as climate and associated biomes were most important, followed by human activities that modify climatic and vegetation features, such as irrigation and agriculture. Most of the characteristic species are not currently well-known as invasive plant species, but many may have potential to become troublesome in the future. Considering the possibility of biotic homogenization, these findings have implications for predicting the characteristics of the plant assemblages of the future. However, the relatively low quality of the dataset necessitates further more in-depth studies with improved data before the findings could be directly beneficial for management. PMID:22574145

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong

2011-01-01

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major reason for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. The central theme of this paper is to review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations will be presented. Specifically, this paper will address the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from large-scale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions on aerosol - precipitation interactions are suggested.

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chen, Jen-Ping; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Chien; Zhang, Chidong

2012-01-01

Aerosols are a critical factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosol effects on clouds could further extend to precipitation, both through the formation of cloud particles and by exerting persistent radiative forcing on the climate system that disturbs dynamics. However, the various mechanisms behind these effects, in particular the ones connected to precipitation, are not yet well understood. The atmospheric and climate communities have long been working to gain a better grasp of these critical effects and hence to reduce the significant uncertainties in climate prediction resulting from such a lack of adequate knowledge. Here we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes from theoretical analysis of microphysics, observational evidence, and a range of numerical model simulations. In addition, the discrepancy between results simulated by models, as well as that between simulations and observations, are presented. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: (1) fundamental theories of aerosol effects on microphysics and precipitation processes, (2) observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, (3) signatures of the aerosol impact on precipitation from largescale analyses, (4) results from cloud-resolving model simulations, and (5) results from large-scale numerical model simulations. Finally, several future research directions for gaining a better understanding of aerosol--cloud-precipitation interactions are suggested.

Diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river impacting the pacific northwest: Storm summary and offshore vertical structure observed with COSMIC satellite retrievals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neiman, P.J.; Ralph, F.M.; Wick, G.A.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Wee, T.-K.; Ma, Z.; Taylor, G.H.; Dettinger, M.D.

2008-01-01

This study uses the new satellite-based Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission to retrieve tropospheric profiles of temperature and moisture over the data-sparse eastern Pacific Ocean. The COSMIC retrievals, which employ a global positioning system radio occultation technique combined with "first-guess" information from numerical weather prediction model analyses, are evaluated through the diagnosis of an intense atmospheric river (AR; i.e., a narrow plume of strong water vapor flux) that devastated the Pacific Northwest with flooding rains in early November 2006. A detailed analysis of this AR is presented first using conventional datasets and highlights the fact that ARs are critical contributors to West Coast extreme precipitation and flooding events. Then, the COSMIC evaluation is provided. Offshore composite COSMIC soundings north of, within, and south of this AR exhibited vertical structures that are meteorologically consistent with satellite imagery and global reanalysis fields of this case and with earlier composite dropsonde results from other landfalling ARs. Also, a curtain of 12 offshore COSMIC soundings through the AR yielded cross-sectional thermodynamic and moisture structures that were similarly consistent, including details comparable to earlier aircraft-based dropsonde analyses. The results show that the new COSMIC retrievals, which are global (currently yielding ???2000 soundings per day), provide high-resolution vertical-profile information beyond that found in the numerical model first-guess fields and can help monitor key lower-tropospheric mesoscale phenomena in data-sparse regions. Hence, COSMIC will likely support a wide array of applications, from physical process studies to data assimilation, numerical weather prediction, and climate research. ?? 2008 American Meteorological Society.

Safety climate and firefighting: Focus group results.

PubMed

DeJoy, David M; Smith, Todd D; Dyal, Mari-Amanda

2017-09-01

Firefighting is a hazardous occupation and there have been numerous calls for fundamental changes in how fire service organizations approach safety and balance safety with other operational priorities. These calls, however, have yielded little systematic research. As part of a larger project to develop and test a model of safety climate for the fire service, focus groups were used to identify potentially important dimensions of safety climate pertinent to firefighting. Analyses revealed nine overarching themes. Competency/professionalism, physical/psychological readiness, and that positive traits sometimes produce negative consequences were themes at the individual level; cohesion and supervisor leadership/support at the workgroup level; and politics/bureaucracy, resources, leadership, and hiring/promotion at the organizational level. A multi-level perspective seems appropriate for examining safety climate in firefighting. Safety climate in firefighting appears to be multi-dimensional and some dimensions prominent in the general safety climate literature also seem relevant to firefighting. These results also suggest that the fire service may be undergoing transitions encompassing mission, personnel, and its fundamental approach to safety and risk. These results help point the way to the development of safety climate measures specific to firefighting and to interventions for improving safety performance. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How scaling fluctuation analyses can transform our view of the climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

There exist a bewildering diversity of proxy climate data including tree rings, ice cores, lake varves, boreholes, ice cores, pollen, foraminifera, corals and speleothems. Their quantitative use raises numerous questions of interpretation and calibration. Even in classical cases - such as the isotope signal in ice cores - the usual assumption of linear dependence on ambient temperature is only a first approximation. In other cases - such as speleothems - the isotope signals arise from multiple causes (which are not always understood) and this hinders their widespread use. We argue that traditional interpretations and calibrations - based on essentially deterministic comparisons between instrumental data, model outputs and proxies (albeit with the help of uncertainty analyses) - have been both overly ambitious while simultaneously underexploiting the data. The former since comparisons typically involve series at different temporal resolutions and from different geographical locations - one does not expect agreement in a deterministic sense, while with respect to climate models, one only expects statistical correspondences. The proxies are underexploited since comparisons are done at unique temporal and / or spatial resolutions whereas the fluctuations they describe provide information over wide ranges of scale. A convenient method of overcoming these difficulties is the use of fluctuation analysis systematically applied over the full range of available scales to determine the scaling proeprties. The new transformative element presented here, is to define fluctuations ΔT in a series T(t) at scale Δt not by differences (ΔT(Δt) = T(t+Δt) - T(t)) but rather by the difference in the means over the first and second halves of the lag Δt . This seemingly minor change - technically from "poor man's" to "Haar" wavelets - turns out to make a huge difference since for example, it is adequate for analysing temperatures from seconds to hundreds of millions of years yet remaining simple to interpret [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2012]. It has lead for example to the discovery of the new "macroweather" regime between weather (Δt <≈ 10days) and climate (Δt ≈> 30 yrs) in which fluctuations decrease rather than increase with scale [Lovejoy, 2013]. We illustrate the transformative power of combining such fluctuation analysis with scaling by giving numerous examples from instrumental data, multiproxies, ice core proxies, corals, speleothems and GCM outputs [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013]. References: Lovejoy, S. (2013), What is climate?, EOS, 94, (1), 1 January, p1-2. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2012), Haar wavelets, fluctuations and structure functions: convenient choices for geophysics, Nonlinear Proc. Geophys. , 19, 1-14 doi: 10.5194/npg-19-1-2012. Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2013), The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, 480 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Hydrologic climate change impacts in the Columbia River Basin and their sensitivity to methodological choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Mao, Y.; Rupp, D. E.

2016-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) in the United States' Pacific Northwest (PNW) is highly regulated for hydropower generation, flood control, fish survival, irrigation and navigation. Historically it has had a hydrologic regime characterized by winter precipitation in the form of snow, followed by a spring peak in streamflow from snowmelt. Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter this regime, causing changes to streamflow timing and volume. While numerous hydrologic studies have been conducted across the CRB, the impact of methodological choices in hydrologic modeling has not been as heavily investigated. To better understand their impact on the spread in modeled projections of hydrological change, we ran simulations involving permutations of a variety of methodological choices. We used outputs from ten global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report. After downscaling the GCM output using three different techniques we forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), both implemented at 1/16th degree ( 5 km) for the period 1950-2099. For the VIC model, we used three independently-derived parameter sets. We will show results from the range of simulations, both in the form of basin-wide spatial analyses of hydrologic variables and through analyses of changes in streamflow at selected sites throughout the CRB. We will then discuss the differences in sensitivities to climate change seen among the projections, paying particular attention to differences in projections from the hydrologic models and different parameter sets.

Late Holocene palaeoclimate variability: The significance of bog pine dendrochronology related to peat stratigraphy. The Puścizna Wielka raised bog case study (Orawa - Nowy Targ Basin, Polish Inner Carpathians)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krąpiec, Marek; Margielewski, Włodzimierz; Korzeń, Katarzyna; Szychowska-Krąpiec, Elżbieta; Nalepka, Dorota; Łajczak, Adam

2016-09-01

The results of dendrochronological and palynological analyses of subfossil pine trees occurring in the peat deposits of the Puścizna Wielka raised bog (Polish Carpathians, Southern Poland) - the only site with numerous subfossil pine trees in the mountainous regions of Central Europe presently known - indicate that the majority of the tree populations grew in the peat bog during the periods ca 5415-3940 cal BP and 3050-2560 cal BP. Several forestless episodes, dated to 5245-5155 cal BP, 4525-4395 cal BP and 3940-3050 cal BP, were preceded by tree dying-off phases caused by an extreme periodical increase in humidity and general climate cooling trends. These events are documented based on analyses of pollen and non-pollen palynomorph assemblages, dendrochronological analyses of the trees, as well as numerous radiocarbon datings of the sediment horizons occurring within the peat bog profile. The phases of germinations, and, in turn, of tree and shrub invasions of the peat bog areas have been closely connected to drying and occasional warming of the regional climate. The last of the forestless periods began about 2600 years ago and continued up to the very recent times. Currently, as a result of desiccation of the peat bog and the lowering of the groundwater level (due to improved water drainage system), pine trees have returned the peat bog again. These results demonstrate that studies of subfossil bog-pine trees are quite effective in documenting and reconstructing periods of humidity fluctuation that occurred within the Carpathian region over the last several millennia.

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Arkin, Phil; Kalnay, Eugenia; Laver, James; Trenberth, Kevin

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

Low-cost phase change material as an energy storage medium in building envelopes: Experimental and numerical analyses

DOE PAGES

Biswas, Kaushik; Abhari, Ramin

2014-10-03

A promising approach to increasing the energy efficiency of buildings is the implementation of a phase change material (PCM) in the building envelope. Numerous studies over the last two decades have reported the energy saving potential of PCMs in building envelopes, but their wide application has been inhibited, in part, by their high cost. This article describes a novel PCM made of naturally occurring fatty acids/glycerides trapped into high density polyethylene (HDPE) pellets and its performance in a building envelope application. The PCM-HDPE pellets were mixed with cellulose insulation and then added to an exterior wall of a test buildingmore » in a hot and humid climate, and tested over a period of several months, To demonstrate the efficacy of the PCM-enhanced cellulose insulation in reducing the building envelope heat gains and losses, side-by-side comparison was performed with another wall section filled with cellulose-only insulation. Further, numerical modeling of the test wall was performed to determine the actual impact of the PCM-HDPE pellets on wall-generated heating and cooling loads and the associated electricity consumption. The model was first validated using experimental data and then used for annual simulations using typical meteorological year (TMY3) weather data. Furthermore, this article presents the experimental data and numerical analyses showing the energy-saving potential of the new PCM.« less

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and radiation data) and ground-based eye observations of clouds and radiation measurements from weather stations. Our results show that many of the climate models have great difficulties representing the diurnal cycle of winds and clouds, leading to associated errors in radiation. Typical errors include a substantial underestimation of the lowest clouds accompanied by an overestimation of clouds at the top of the monsoon layer, indicating systematic problems in vertical exchange processes, which are also reflected in large errors in jet speed. Consequently, many models show a too flat diurnal cycle in cloudiness. This contribution is part of the EU-funded DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) project that aims to investigate the impact of the drastic increase in anthropogenic emissions in West Africa on the local weather and climate, for example through cloud-aerosol interactions. The analysis of the capability of state-of-the-art numerical models to represent low-level cloudiness presented here is an important requisite for the planned assessments of the influence of anthropogenic aerosol.

Mass and tracer transport within oceanic Lagrangian coherent vortices as diagnosed in a global mesoscale eddying climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarshish, Nathaniel; Abernathey, Ryan; Dufour, Carolina; Frenger, Ivy; Griffies, Stephen

2017-04-01

Transient ocean mesoscale fluctuations play a central role in the global climate system, transporting climate relevant tracers such as heat and carbon. In satellite observations and numerical simulations, mesoscale vortices feature prominently as collectively rotating regions that remain visibly coherent. Prior studies on transport from ocean vortices typically rely on Eulerian identification methods, in which vortices are identified by selecting closed contours of Eulerian fields (e.g. sea surface height, or the Okubo-Weiss parameter) that satisfy geometric criteria and anomaly thresholds. In contrast, recent studies employ Lagrangian analysis of virtual particle trajectories initialized within the selected Eulerian contours, revealing significant discrepancies between the advection of the contour's material interior and the evolution of the Eulerian field contour. This work investigates the global mass and tracer transport associated with materially coherent surface ocean vortices. Further, it addresses differences between Eulerian and Lagrangian analyses for the detection of vortices. To do so, we use GFDL's CM2.6 coupled climate model with 5-10km horizontal grid spacing. We identify coherent vortices in CM2.6 by implementing the Rotationally Coherent Lagrangian Vortex (RCLV) framework, which recently emerged from dynamical systems theory. This approach involves the numerical advection of millions of Lagrangian particles and guarantees material coherence by construction. We compute the statistics, spatial distribution, and lifetimes of coherent vortices in addition to calculating the associated mass and tracer transports. We offer compelling evidence that Eulerian vortex methods are poorly suited to answer questions of mass and tracer transport.

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-10-20

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Are atmospheric updrafts a key to unlocking climate forcing and sensitivity?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud–aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climate and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vs in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of the scale dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Analyses of phase change materials’ efficiency in warm-summer humid continental climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratnieks, J.; Gendelis, S.; Jakovics, A.; Bajare, D.

2017-10-01

The usage of phase change materials (PCMs) is a way to store excess energy produced during the hot time of the day and release it during the night thereby reducing the overheating problem. While, in Latvian climate conditions overheating is not a big issue in traditional buildings since it happens only a couple of weeks per year air conditioners must still be installed to maintain thermal comfort. The need for cooling in recently built office buildings with large window area can increase significantly. It is therefore of great interest if the thermal comfort conditions can be maintained by PCMs alone or with reduced maximum power of installed cooling systems. Our initial studies show that if the test building is well-insulated (necessary to reduce heat loss in winter), phase change material is not able to solidify fast enough during the relatively short night time. To further investigate the problem various experimental setups with two different phase change materials were installed in test buildings. Experimental results are compared with numerical modelling made in software COMSOL Multiphysics. The effectiveness of PCM using different situations is widely analysed.

Partial spline models for the inclusion of tropopause and frontal boundary information in otherwise smooth two- and three-dimensional objective analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shiau, Jyh-Jen; Wahba, Grace; Johnson, Donald R.

1986-01-01

A new method, based on partial spline models, is developed for including specified discontinuities in otherwise smooth two- and three-dimensional objective analyses. The method is appropriate for including tropopause height information in two- and three-dimensinal temperature analyses, using the O'Sullivan-Wahba physical variational method for analysis of satellite radiance data, and may in principle be used in a combined variational analysis of observed, forecast, and climate information. A numerical method for its implementation is described and a prototype two-dimensional analysis based on simulated radiosonde and tropopause height data is shown. The method may also be appropriate for other geophysical problems, such as modeling the ocean thermocline, fronts, discontinuities, etc.

NASA and the National Climate Assessment: Promoting awareness of NASA Earth science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leidner, A. K.

2014-12-01

NASA Earth science observations, models, analyses, and applications made significant contributions to numerous aspects of the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA) report and are contributing to sustained climate assessment activities. The agency's goal in participating in the NCA was to ensure that NASA scientific resources were made available to understand the current state of climate change science and climate change impacts. By working with federal agency partners and stakeholder communities to develop and write the report, the agency was able to raise awareness of NASA climate science with audiences beyond the traditional NASA community. To support assessment activities within the NASA community, the agency sponsored two competitive programs that not only funded research and tools for current and future assessments, but also increased capacity within our community to conduct assessment-relevant science and to participate in writing assessments. Such activities fostered the ability of graduate students, post-docs, and senior researchers to learn about the science needs of climate assessors and end-users, which can guide future research activities. NASA also contributed to developing the Global Change Information System, which deploys information from the NCA to scientists, decision makers, and the public, and thus contributes to climate literacy. Finally, NASA satellite imagery and animations used in the Third NCA helped the pubic and decision makers visualize climate changes and were frequently used in social media to communicate report key findings. These resources are also key for developing educational materials that help teachers and students explore regional climate change impacts and opportunities for responses.

Evaluating climate models: Should we use weather or climate observations?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oglesby, Robert J; Erickson III, David J

2009-12-01

Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their abilitymore » to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.« less

Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

1998-08-01

The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the futuremore » contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.« less

Separation of spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') by combined analysis of really measured and generated numerically vector time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigin, A. M.; Mukhin, D.; Volodin, E. M.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E. M.

2013-12-01

The new method of decomposition of the Earth's climate system into well separated spatial-temporal patterns ('climatic modes') is discussed. The method is based on: (i) generalization of the MSSA (Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis) [1] for expanding vector (space-distributed) time series in basis of spatial-temporal empirical orthogonal functions (STEOF), which makes allowance delayed correlations of the processes recorded in spatially separated points; (ii) expanding both real SST data, and longer by several times SST data generated numerically, in STEOF basis; (iii) use of the numerically produced STEOF basis for exclusion of 'too slow' (and thus not represented correctly) processes from real data. The application of the method allows by means of vector time series generated numerically by the INM RAS Coupled Climate Model [2] to separate from real SST anomalies data [3] two climatic modes possessing by noticeably different time scales: 3-5 and 9-11 years. Relations of separated modes to ENSO and PDO are investigated. Possible applications of spatial-temporal climatic patterns concept to prognosis of climate system evolution is discussed. 1. Ghil, M., R. M. Allen, M. D. Dettinger, K. Ide, D. Kondrashov, et al. (2002) "Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series", Rev. Geophys. 40(1), 3.1-3.41. 2. http://83.149.207.89/GCM_DATA_PLOTTING/GCM_INM_DATA_XY_en.htm 3. http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.EXTENDED/.v2/.ssta/

Climate Impacts of Cover Crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardozzi, D.; Wieder, W. R.; Bonan, G. B.; Morris, C. K.; Grandy, S.

2016-12-01

Cover crops are planted in agricultural rotation with the intention of protecting soil rather than harvest. Cover crops have numerous environmental benefits that include preventing soil erosion, increasing soil fertility, and providing weed and pest control- among others. In addition to localized environmental benefits, cover crops can have important regional or global biogeochemical impacts by increasing soil organic carbon, changing emissions of greenhouse trace gases like nitrous oxide and methane, and reducing hydrologic nitrogen losses. Cover crops may additionally affect climate by changing biogeophysical processes, like albedo and latent heat flux, though these potential changes have not yet been evaluated. Here we use the coupled Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) - Community Land Model (CLM4.5) to test how planting cover crops in the United States may change biogeophysical fluxes and climate. We present seasonal changes in albedo, heat fluxes, evaporative partitioning, radiation, and the resulting changes in temperature. Preliminary analyses show that during seasons when cover crops are planted, latent heat flux increases and albedo decreases, changing the evaporative fraction and surface temperatures. Understanding both the biogeophysical changes caused by planting cover crops in this study and the biogeochemical changes found in other studies will give a clearer picture of the overall impacts of cover crops on climate and atmospheric chemistry, informing how this land use strategy will impact climate in the future.

Identification of key climatic factors regulating the transport of pesticides in leaching and to tile drains.

PubMed

Nolan, Bernard T; Dubus, Igor G; Surdyk, Nicolas; Fowler, Hayley J; Burton, Aidan; Hollis, John M; Reichenberger, Stefan; Jarvis, Nicholas J

2008-09-01

Key climatic factors influencing the transport of pesticides to drains and to depth were identified. Climatic characteristics such as the timing of rainfall in relation to pesticide application may be more critical than average annual temperature and rainfall. The fate of three pesticides was simulated in nine contrasting soil types for two seasons, five application dates and six synthetic weather data series using the MACRO model, and predicted cumulative pesticide loads were analysed using statistical methods. Classification trees and Pearson correlations indicated that simulated losses in excess of 75th percentile values (0.046 mg m(-2) for leaching, 0.042 mg m(-2) for drainage) generally occurred with large rainfall events following autumn application on clay soils, for both leaching and drainage scenarios. The amount and timing of winter rainfall were important factors, whatever the application period, and these interacted strongly with soil texture and pesticide mobility and persistence. Winter rainfall primarily influenced losses of less mobile and more persistent compounds, while short-term rainfall and temperature controlled leaching of the more mobile pesticides. Numerous climatic characteristics influenced pesticide loss, including the amount of precipitation as well as the timing of rainfall and extreme events in relation to application date. Information regarding the relative influence of the climatic characteristics evaluated here can support the development of a climatic zonation for European-scale risk assessment for pesticide fate.

Does Timing Matter? Temporal Stability of Soil-Magnetic Climate Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiss, C. E.

2013-12-01

Numerous studies have shown that the rock-magnetic properties of soils can serve as valuable proxies of continental climates. Many studies average the magnetic properties of several closely spaced sites to reconstruct regional climate signals, but little is known about the temporal variability of soil-magnetic properties. We analyzed the magnetic properties of five, closely spaced (within 20 m from each other) soil profiles that were sampled over a period of five years between 2002 and 2006. The soil profiles are well-developed and display strong magnetic enhancement. According to land records, agricultural influence was minimal as the site had never been plowed and solely been used as pasture. Detailed soil descriptions and measurements of magnetic susceptibility (χ), anhysteretic and isothermal remanent magnetization (ARM, IRM), as well as coercivity parameters show that all studied profiles have very similar horizination and magnetic properties are virtually unchanged from year to year. The only differences between the soil profiles are the position and strength of redoximorphic features. These nanocrystalline iron-oxide deposits have little influence on the magnetic properties of the soils and the timing of soil sampling for magnetic analyses is not a critical factor when sampling for climatic reconstructions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baptista, António M.

This work focuses on the numerical modeling of Columbia River estuarine circulation and associated modeling-supported analyses conducted as an integral part of a multi-disciplinary and multi-institutional effort led by NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. The overall effort is aimed at: (1) retrospective analyses to reconstruct historic bathymetric features and assess effects of climate and river flow on the extent and distribution of shallow water, wetland and tidal-floodplain habitats; (2) computer simulations using a 3-dimensional numerical model to evaluate the sensitivity of salmon rearing opportunities to various historical modifications affecting the estuary (including channel changes, flow regulation, and diking of tidalmore » wetlands and floodplains); (3) observational studies of present and historic food web sources supporting selected life histories of juvenile salmon as determined by stable isotope, microchemistry, and parasitology techniques; and (4) experimental studies in Grays River in collaboration with Columbia River Estuary Study Taskforce (CREST) and the Columbia Land Trust (CLT) to assess effects of multiple tidal wetland restoration projects on various life histories of juvenile salmon and to compare responses to observed habitat-use patterns in the mainstem estuary. From the above observations, experiments, and additional modeling simulations, the effort will also (5) examine effects of alternative flow-management and habitat-restoration scenarios on habitat opportunity and the estuary's productive capacity for juvenile salmon. The underlying modeling system is part of the SATURN1coastal-margin observatory [1]. SATURN relies on 3D numerical models [2, 3] to systematically simulate and understand baroclinic circulation in the Columbia River estuary-plume-shelf system [4-7] (Fig. 1). Multi-year simulation databases of circulation are produced as an integral part of SATURN, and have multiple applications in understanding estuary/plume variability, the role of the estuary and plume on salmon survival, and functional changes in the estuary-plume system in response to climate and human activities.« less

2 °C and SDGs: united they stand, divided they fall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Stechow, Christoph; Minx, Jan C.; Riahi, Keywan; Jewell, Jessica; McCollum, David L.; Callaghan, Max W.; Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Baiocchi, Giovanni

2016-03-01

The adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the new international climate treaty could put 2015 into the history books as a defining year for setting human development on a more sustainable pathway. The global climate policy and SDG agendas are highly interconnected: the way that the climate problem is addressed strongly affects the prospects of meeting numerous other SDGs and vice versa. Drawing on existing scenario results from a recent energy-economy-climate model inter-comparison project, this letter analyses these synergies and (risk) trade-offs of alternative 2 °C pathways across indicators relevant for energy-related SDGs and sustainable energy objectives. We find that limiting the availability of key mitigation technologies yields some co-benefits and decreases risks specific to these technologies but greatly increases many others. Fewer synergies and substantial trade-offs across SDGs are locked into the system for weak short-term climate policies that are broadly in line with current Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), particularly when combined with constraints on technologies. Lowering energy demand growth is key to managing these trade-offs and creating synergies across multiple energy-related SD dimensions. We argue that SD considerations are central for choosing socially acceptable 2 °C pathways: the prospects of meeting other SDGs need not dwindle and can even be enhanced for some goals if appropriate climate policy choices are made. Progress on the climate policy and SDG agendas should therefore be tracked within a unified framework.

Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

2016-12-01

Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as inputs to global weather modelling. The GUC concept, the pathways through which GUC assessments can be undertaken, and current implementations are introduced. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Ecosystem thresholds in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in response to rapid climate cooling 8200 years ago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randsalu Wendrup, Linda; Conley, Daniel J.; Hammarlund, Dan; Snowball, Ian; Carstensen, Jacob; Fritz, Sherilyn C.

2010-05-01

Commonly, ecosystems are thought to show a smooth response in relation to gradually changing conditions, shifting over long periods of time from one state to another, thus reflecting the continuum of change along environmental gradients for each set of conditions. The theoretical concept that ecosystems can experience regime shifts and shift abruptly from one state to another, producing changes in dominance of organisms and overall ecosystem behaviour has, however, existed for more than 30 years. The theory has been further developed and it has been demonstrated, in a number of different terrestrial, freshwater and marine systems, that ecosystems stressed by human or climate perturbations can undergo drastic changes, first reaching an ecological threshold and then switching abruptly to an alternative state. The study of regime shifts in lakes as a result of climate change is complicated because lake biota and processes depend not only on regional climate changes but also on changes in the lake catchment and processes within the lake. Many factors in a lake will respond simultaneously and differently to the effects of climate change, resulting in complex synergy within the aquatic environment. Nevertheless we want to bring together concepts generated in contemporary ecological studies to study and test hypotheses regarding sudden mode shifts and ecological reorganisations in lakes using paleoecological methods, using diatom and numerical analyses as the main analytical tools. We are investigating how lakes respond to climate, during periods of both cooling and warming, identifying thresholds at which regime shifts occur and trying to develop numerical methods to test for regime shifts in paleoecological data. Here we present the preliminary results from a study of the ecosystem response to the "8.2 ka cold event" in Lake Kälksjön in west central Sweden. The lake is annually laminated (varved) and a series of nine radiocarbon measurements obtained at increments of 50 years have been used to wiggle match the sediments to the tree-ring derived radiocarbon calibration curve (Snowball et al., in press). Snowball et al. (in press) used the wiggle matching, organic carbon measurements, mineral magnetic parameters and XRF data and reconstructed a distinct period of enhanced erosion in the catchment from 8066±25 to 7920±25 cal. yr BP. Their results suggest that an abrupt onset of winter precipitation in west-central Sweden started at least 50 years after the onset of the "8.2 kyr cold event" as defined by oxygen isotope data from Greenland. The lake has been sampled for diatom analysis at increments of 10 years over 500 years covering the 8.2 event. The wiggle matched chronology and presence of varves allows for a high resolution time constrained diatom analysis which we hope will reveal the response of the ecosystem to the rapid cooling and also allow us to work on developing and testing numerical methods for detecting and analysing regime shifts. A preliminary low resolution diatom study shows that the diatom flora displays a benthic response to the climate cooling. It also shows that the diatoms seem to react earlier than the previously measured parameters, suggesting that the diatoms and the lake ecosystem are affected by the rapid cooling rather immediately, for example due to changes in ice cover duration, while increased winter precipitation affects the ecosystem at a later stage.

A Summary of the Naval Postgraduate School Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-09-30

Research (M. G. Sovereign) 116 Review of COMWTH II Model (M. G. Sovereign and J. K. Arima ) 117 Optimization of Combat Dynamics (J. G. Taylor) 118...Studies (R. L. Elsberry) 291 4 Numerical Models of Ocean Circulation and Climate Interaction--A Review (R. L. Haney) 292 Numerical Studies of the Dynamics... climatic numerical models to investigate the various mechan- isms pertinent to the large-scale interaction between tropi- cal atmosphere and oceans. Among

Simulated Climate Impacts of Mexico City's Historical Urban Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson-Lira, Valeria

Urbanization, a direct consequence of land use and land cover change, is responsible for significant modification of local to regional scale climates. It is projected that the greatest urban growth of this century will occur in urban areas in the developing world. In addition, there is a significant research gap in emerging nations concerning this topic. Thus, this research focuses on the assessment of climate impacts related to urbanization on the largest metropolitan area in Latin America: Mexico City. Numerical simulations using a state-of-the-science regional climate model are utilized to address a trio of scientifically relevant questions with wide global applicability. The importance of an accurate representation of land use and land cover is first demonstrated through comparison of numerical simulations against observations. Second, the simulated effect of anthropogenic heating is quantified. Lastly, numerical simulations are performed using pre-historic scenarios of land use and land cover to examine and quantify the impact of Mexico City's urban expansion and changes in surface water features on its regional climate.

Improving designer productivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Gary C.

1992-01-01

Designer and design team productivity improves with skill, experience, and the tools available. The design process involves numerous trials and errors, analyses, refinements, and addition of details. Computerized tools have greatly speeded the analysis, and now new theories and methods, emerging under the label Artificial Intelligence (AI), are being used to automate skill and experience. These tools improve designer productivity by capturing experience, emulating recognized skillful designers, and making the essence of complex programs easier to grasp. This paper outlines the aircraft design process in today's technology and business climate, presenting some of the challenges ahead and some of the promising AI methods for meeting those challenges.

Middle to Late Pleistocene multi-proxy record of environmental response to climate change from the Vienna Basin, Central Europe (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salcher, Bernhard C.; Frank-Fellner, Christa; Lomax, Johanna; Preusser, Frank; Ottner, Franz; Scholger, Robert; Wagreich, Michael

2017-10-01

Tectonic basins can represent valuable archives of the environmental history. Presented here are the stratigraphy and multi-proxy analyses of two adjacent alluvial fans in the Quaternary active parts of the Vienna Basin, situated at the interface of the Atlantic, European continental and Mediterranean climate. Deposits comprise a sequence of coarse-grained fluvial deposits intercalated by laterally extensive horizons of pedogenically altered fine sediments. To establish palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, fine-grained sequences from a drill core and outcrop data were analysed according to its malacofauna, palaeopedology, susceptibility and sedimentology. The chronological framework is provided by 38 luminescence ages and supported by geomagnetic polarity investigations. Distinct warm periods each associated with a geomagnetic excursion, are recorded in three pedocomplexes formed during the Last Interglacial and two earlier interglacial periods, indicted to correlate with Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9 and MIS 11, respectively. Environmental conditions during the early last glacial period (MIS 5, c. 100-70 ka) are reconstructed from mollusc-shell rich overbank fines deposited along a former channel belt, covered by massive sheetflood deposits during MIS 2. Analysed warm phases suggest strong variations in humidity, ranging from steppe to forest dominated environments. The study presents one of the few numerically dated Middle Pleistocene multi-proxy records and one of the most comprehensive malacological datasets covering the early phases of last glacial period of continental Europe.

Analysis of water level variation of lakes and reservoirs in Xinjiang, China using ICESat laser altimetry data (2003–2009)

PubMed Central

Liu, Hongxing; Chen, Yaning; Shu, Song; Wu, Qiusheng; Wang, Shujie

2017-01-01

This study utilizes ICESat Release 33 GLA14 data to analyse water level variation of Xinjiang’s lakes and reservoirs from 2003 to 2009. By using Landsat images, lakes and reservoirs with area larger than 1 km2 are numerically delineated with a software tool. Based on ICESat observations, we analyse the characteristics of water level variation in different geographic environments, as well as investigate the reasons for the variation. Results indicate that climatic warming contributes to rising water levels in lakes in mountainous areas, especially for lakes that are recharged by snow and glacial melting. For lakes in oases, the water levels are affected jointly by human activity and climate change, while the water levels of reservoirs are mainly affected by human activity. Comparing the annual average rates of water levels, those of lakes are higher than those of reservoirs in oasis areas. The main reasons for the decreasing water levels in desert regions are the reduction of recharged runoff and high evaporation. By analysing the variation of water levels and water volume in different geologic environments, it is found that water level and volume increased in mountainous regions, and decreased in oasis regions and desert regions. Finding also demonstrate that decreasing volume is greater than increasing volume, which results in decreasing total volume of Xinjiang lakes and reservoirs. PMID:28873094

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2014-05-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main results of the RCM ALARO-Climate model simulations in 25 and 6.25 km resolutions on the longer time-scale (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40 re-analyses and run on the integration domain of ~ 2500 x 2500 km size covering the central Europe. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version dataset 8. Other simulated parameters (e.g., cloudiness, radiation or components of water cycle) were compared to the ERA-40 re-analyses. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation in both, 25 km and 6.25 km resolutions, revealed significant cold biases in all seasons and overestimation of precipitation in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The differences between these simulations were small and thus revealed a robustness of the model's physical parameterization on the resolution change. The series of 25 km resolution simulations with several model adaptations was carried out to study their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables and thus possibly identify a source of major errors in the simulated climate. The current investigation suggests the main reason for biases is related to the model physic. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0073). The partial support was also provided under the projects P209-11-0956 of the Czech Science Foundation and CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056 (Operational Programme of Education for Competitiveness of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic).

Ballistic performance of a Kevlar-29 woven fibre composite under varied temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soykasap, O.; Colakoglu, M.

2010-05-01

Armours are usually manufactured from polymer matrix composites and used for both military and non-military purposes in different seasons, climates, and regions. The mechanical properties of the composites depend on temperature, which also affects their ballistic characteristics. The armour is used to absorb the kinetic energy of a projectile without any major injury to a person. Therefore, besides a high strength and lightness, a high damping capacity is required to absorb the impact energy transferred by the projectile. The ballistic properties of a Kevlar 29/polyvinyl butyral composite are investigated under varied temperatures in this study. The elastic modulus of the composite is determined from the natural frequency of composite specimens at different temperatures by using a damping monitoring method. Then, the backside deformation of composite plates is analysed experimentally and numerically employing the finite-element program Abaqus. The experimental and numeric results obtained are in good agreement.

Tracing the source of numerical climate model uncertainties in precipitation simulations using a feature-oriented statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Jones, A. D.; Rhoades, A.

2017-12-01

Precipitation is a key component in hydrologic cycles, and changing precipitation regimes contribute to more intense and frequent drought and flood events around the world. Numerical climate modeling is a powerful tool to study climatology and to predict future changes. Despite the continuous improvement in numerical models, long-term precipitation prediction remains a challenge especially at regional scales. To improve numerical simulations of precipitation, it is important to find out where the uncertainty in precipitation simulations comes from. There are two types of uncertainty in numerical model predictions. One is related to uncertainty in the input data, such as model's boundary and initial conditions. These uncertainties would propagate to the final model outcomes even if the numerical model has exactly replicated the true world. But a numerical model cannot exactly replicate the true world. Therefore, the other type of model uncertainty is related the errors in the model physics, such as the parameterization of sub-grid scale processes, i.e., given precise input conditions, how much error could be generated by the in-precise model. Here, we build two statistical models based on a neural network algorithm to predict long-term variation of precipitation over California: one uses "true world" information derived from observations, and the other uses "modeled world" information using model inputs and outputs from the North America Coordinated Regional Downscaling Project (NA CORDEX). We derive multiple climate feature metrics as the predictors for the statistical model to represent the impact of global climate on local hydrology, and include topography as a predictor to represent the local control. We first compare the predictors between the true world and the modeled world to determine the errors contained in the input data. By perturbing the predictors in the statistical model, we estimate how much uncertainty in the model's final outcomes is accounted for by each predictor. By comparing the statistical model derived from true world information and modeled world information, we assess the errors lying in the physics of the numerical models. This work provides a unique insight to assess the performance of numerical climate models, and can be used to guide improvement of precipitation prediction.

On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Kennedy, John; Dee, Dick; Allan, R.; O'Neill, Alan

2013-01-01

The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

Global and Arctic climate engineering: numerical model studies.

PubMed

Caldeira, Ken; Wood, Lowell

2008-11-13

We perform numerical simulations of the atmosphere, sea ice and upper ocean to examine possible effects of diminishing incoming solar radiation, insolation, on the climate system. We simulate both global and Arctic climate engineering in idealized scenarios in which insolation is diminished above the top of the atmosphere. We consider the Arctic scenarios because climate change is manifesting most strongly there. Our results indicate that, while such simple insolation modulation is unlikely to perfectly reverse the effects of greenhouse gas warming, over a broad range of measures considering both temperature and water, an engineered high CO2 climate can be made much more similar to the low CO2 climate than would be a high CO2 climate in the absence of such engineering. At high latitudes, there is less sunlight deflected per unit albedo change but climate system feedbacks operate more powerfully there. These two effects largely cancel each other, making the global mean temperature response per unit top-of-atmosphere albedo change relatively insensitive to latitude. Implementing insolation modulation appears to be feasible.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Centennial-to-millennial scale climate change during the last 100,000 years: a Southern Hemisphere perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bos, Valerie; Rees, Andrew; Newnham, Rewi; Augustinus, Paul

2017-04-01

The response of past terrestrial ecosystems to abrupt climate change is central to the debate surrounding the consequences of future climate change. Many centennial-to-millennial scale episodes of rapid change over the past 117,000 years have been reported, notably the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of Greenland and the North Atlantic and Antarctic Isotope Maxima. Best expressed in past climate records from the polar and tropical regions, the timing, amplitude and duration of these changes are variable on a global scale, and it is unclear how the events are generated and transmitted to cause such asynchronous patterns. The southern mid-latitudes form a poorly understood piece of the puzzle. Our Marsden-funded project aims to increase understanding of the New Zealand climate system in relation to global patterns over the last 100 kyr by developing high-resolution climate records from the lake sediments contained within Auckland's maars. These crater lakes are unique, because their sediments are laminated throughout and the sedimentation rate is very high. Additionally, the numerous (>50) volcanic ash layers contained within the sediments act as anchor points in our chronologies. We have adopted a multiproxy approach that combines data from biotic, molecular biomarker isotope and geochemical analyses. The remit of my doctorate is to produce two independent, but complementary, temperature reconstructions from chironomid remains (mean summer temperatures) and pollen (mean annual temperatures) from Lake Pupuke sediments. This approach will eventually help us to address whether abrupt climate change events or changes in seasonality influenced climate and biota over the past 100,000 years in northern New Zealand, and whether these changes were driven by triggers from the North Atlantic, Antarctica or the tropics.

A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

issues related to climate change , focusing primarily on its economic aspects. The study draws from numerous published sources to summarize the current...state of climate science and provide a conceptual framework for addressing climate change as an economic problem. It also examines public policy

Are Atmospheric Updrafts a Key to Unlocking Climate Forcing and Sensitivity?

DOE PAGES

Donner, Leo J.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Rieger, Daniel; ...

2016-06-08

Both climate forcing and climate sensitivity persist as stubborn uncertainties limiting the extent to which climate models can provide actionable scientific scenarios for climate change. A key, explicit control on cloud-aerosol interactions, the largest uncertainty in climate forcing, is the vertical velocity of cloud-scale updrafts. Model-based studies of climate sensitivity indicate that convective entrainment, which is closely related to updraft speeds, is an important control on climate sensitivity. Updraft vertical velocities also drive many physical processes essential to numerical weather prediction. Vertical velocities and their role in atmospheric physical processes have been given very limited attention in models for climatemore » and numerical weather prediction. The relevant physical scales range down to tens of meters and are thus frequently sub-grid and require parameterization. Many state-of-science convection parameterizations provide mass fluxes without specifying vertical velocities, and parameterizations which do provide vertical velocities have been subject to limited evaluation against what have until recently been scant observations. Atmospheric observations imply that the distribution of vertical velocities depends on the areas over which the vertical velocities are averaged. Distributions of vertical velocities in climate models may capture this behavior, but it has not been accounted for when parameterizing cloud and precipitation processes in current models. New observations of convective vertical velocities offer a potentially promising path toward developing process-level cloud models and parameterizations for climate and numerical weather prediction. Taking account of scale-dependence of resolved vertical velocities offers a path to matching cloud-scale physical processes and their driving dynamics more realistically, with a prospect of reduced uncertainty in both climate forcing and sensitivity.« less

Does climate directly influence NPP globally?

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Bartlett, Megan; Wang, Youshi; He, Fangliang; Weiner, Jacob; Chave, Jérôme; Sack, Lawren

2016-01-01

The need for rigorous analyses of climate impacts has never been more crucial. Current textbooks state that climate directly influences ecosystem annual net primary productivity (NPP), emphasizing the urgent need to monitor the impacts of climate change. A recent paper challenged this consensus, arguing, based on an analysis of NPP for 1247 woody plant communities across global climate gradients, that temperature and precipitation have negligible direct effects on NPP and only perhaps have indirect effects by constraining total stand biomass (Mtot ) and stand age (a). The authors of that study concluded that the length of the growing season (lgs ) might have a minor influence on NPP, an effect they considered not to be directly related to climate. In this article, we describe flaws that affected that study's conclusions and present novel analyses to disentangle the effects of stand variables and climate in determining NPP. We re-analyzed the same database to partition the direct and indirect effects of climate on NPP, using three approaches: maximum-likelihood model selection, independent-effects analysis, and structural equation modeling. These new analyses showed that about half of the global variation in NPP could be explained by Mtot combined with climate variables and supported strong and direct influences of climate independently of Mtot , both for NPP and for net biomass change averaged across the known lifetime of the stands (ABC = average biomass change). We show that lgs is an important climate variable, intrinsically correlated with, and contributing to mean annual temperature and precipitation (Tann and Pann ), all important climatic drivers of NPP. Our analyses provide guidance for statistical and mechanistic analyses of climate drivers of ecosystem processes for predictive modeling and provide novel evidence supporting the strong, direct role of climate in determining vegetation productivity at the global scale. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

School Climate Assessment Programs. Technical Assistance Bulletin 38.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National School Resource Network, Washington, DC.

Numerous studies indicate that climate, the prevailing "feeling" of the environment, not only contributes to behavioral and situational outcomes, but that climate can be changed to help bring about the behaviors and outcomes desired. Researchers have identified characteristics of positive school climates and ways of determining the presence or…

Improving designer productivity. [artificial intelligence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Gary C.

1992-01-01

Designer and design team productivity improves with skill, experience, and the tools available. The design process involves numerous trials and errors, analyses, refinements, and addition of details. Computerized tools have greatly speeded the analysis, and now new theories and methods, emerging under the label Artificial Intelligence (AI), are being used to automate skill and experience. These tools improve designer productivity by capturing experience, emulating recognized skillful designers, and making the essence of complex programs easier to grasp. This paper outlines the aircraft design process in today's technology and business climate, presenting some of the challenges ahead and some of the promising AI methods for meeting these challenges.

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-20

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. Amore » fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.« less

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-03-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed.

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes observed in Modena, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccolari, M.; Malmusi, S.

2013-03-01

Climate changes has become one of the most analysed subjects from researchers community, mainly because of the numerous extreme events that hit the globe. To have a better view of climate changes and trends, long observations time series are needed. During last decade a lot of Italian time series, concerning several surface meteorological variables, have been analysed and published. No one of them includes one of the longest record in Italy, the time series of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia. Measurements, collected since early 19th century, always in the same position, except for some months during the second world war, embrace daily temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, pressure, cloudiness and other variables. In this work we concentrated on the analysis of yearly and seasonal trends and climate extremes of temperature, both minimum and maximum, and precipitation time series, for the periods 1861-2010 and 1831-2010 respectively, in which continuous measurements are available. In general, our results confirm quite well those reported by IPCC and in many other studies over Mediterranean area. In particular, we found that minimum temperature has a non significant positive trend of + 0.1 °C per decade considering all the period, the value increases to 0.9 °C per decade for 1981-2010. For maximum temperature we observed a non significant + 0.1 °C trend for all the period, while + 0.8 °C for the last thirty years. On the other hand precipitation is decreasing, -6.3 mm per decade, considering all the analysed period, while the last thirty years are characterised by a great increment of 74.8 mm per decade. For both variables several climate indices have been analysed and they confirm what has been found for minimum and maximum temperatures and precipitation. In particular, during last 30 years frost days and ice days are decreasing, whereas summer days are increasing. During the last 30-year tropical nights and warm spell duration indices are characterised by a particular strong increment, if compared to the ones of the entire period. Finally, a cursory comparison between winter precipitation and NAO index was done, showing a high anti-correlation, especially since the second half of 20th century.

Assessment of 6- to 20-Grade Educators' Climate Knowledge and Perceptions: Results from the Climate Stewardship Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeal, Karen S.; Walker, Scott L.; Rutherford, David

2014-01-01

The southeastern United States (SEUS) faces numerous potential impacts from a changing climate; however, the population has been characterized with a predominance of naysayers and few climate policies have been implemented by state governments in the region. As such, public education is an important avenue for achieving a climate literate…

The Power of the Spectrum: Combining Numerical Proxy System Models with Analytical Error Spectra to Better Understand Timescale Dependent Proxy Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolman, A. M.; Laepple, T.; Kunz, T.

2017-12-01

Understanding the uncertainties associated with proxy-based reconstructions of past climate is critical if they are to be used to validate climate models and contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the climate system. Here we present two related and complementary approaches to quantifying proxy uncertainty. The proxy forward model (PFM) "sedproxy" bitbucket.org/ecus/sedproxy numerically simulates the creation, archiving and observation of marine sediment archived proxies such as Mg/Ca in foraminiferal shells and the alkenone unsaturation index UK'37. It includes the effects of bioturbation, bias due to seasonality in the rate of proxy creation, aliasing of the seasonal temperature cycle into lower frequencies, and error due to cleaning, processing and measurement of samples. Numerical PFMs have the advantage of being very flexible, allowing many processes to be modelled and assessed for their importance. However, as more and more proxy-climate data become available, their use in advanced data products necessitates rapid estimates of uncertainties for both the raw reconstructions, and their smoothed/derived products, where individual measurements have been aggregated to coarser time scales or time-slices. To address this, we derive closed-form expressions for power spectral density of the various error sources. The power spectra describe both the magnitude and autocorrelation structure of the error, allowing timescale dependent proxy uncertainty to be estimated from a small number of parameters describing the nature of the proxy, and some simple assumptions about the variance of the true climate signal. We demonstrate and compare both approaches for time-series of the last millennia, Holocene, and the deglaciation. While the numerical forward model can create pseudoproxy records driven by climate model simulations, the analytical model of proxy error allows for a comprehensive exploration of parameter space and mapping of climate signal re-constructability, conditional on the climate and sampling conditions.

Earth System Grid II (ESG): Turning Climate Model Datasets Into Community Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D.; Middleton, D.; Foster, I.; Nevedova, V.; Kesselman, C.; Chervenak, A.; Bharathi, S.; Drach, B.; Cinquni, L.; Brown, D.; Strand, G.; Fox, P.; Garcia, J.; Bernholdte, D.; Chanchio, K.; Pouchard, L.; Chen, M.; Shoshani, A.; Sim, A.

2003-12-01

High-resolution, long-duration simulations performed with advanced DOE SciDAC/NCAR climate models will produce tens of petabytes of output. To be useful, this output must be made available to global change impacts researchers nationwide, both at national laboratories and at universities, other research laboratories, and other institutions. To this end, we propose to create a new Earth System Grid, ESG-II - a virtual collaborative environment that links distributed centers, users, models, and data. ESG-II will provide scientists with virtual proximity to the distributed data and resources that they require to perform their research. The creation of this environment will significantly increase the scientific productivity of U.S. climate researchers by turning climate datasets into community resources. In creating ESG-II, we will integrate and extend a range of Grid and collaboratory technologies, including the DODS remote access protocols for environmental data, Globus Toolkit technologies for authentication, resource discovery, and resource access, and Data Grid technologies developed in other projects. We will develop new technologies for (1) creating and operating "filtering servers" capable of performing sophisticated analyses, and (2) delivering results to users. In so doing, we will simultaneously contribute to climate science and advance the state of the art in collaboratory technology. We expect our results to be useful to numerous other DOE projects. The three-year R&D program will be undertaken by a talented and experienced team of computer scientists at five laboratories (ANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL) and one university (ISI), working in close collaboration with climate scientists at several sites.

Climate of Priest River Experimental Forest, northern Idaho

Treesearch

Arnold I. Finklin

1983-01-01

Detailed climatic description of Priest River Experimental Forest; applies to much of the northern Idaho panhandle. Covers year-round pattern and focuses on the fire season. Topographic and local site differences in climate are examined; also, climatic trends or fluctuations during the past 70 years. Includes numerous tables and graphs. Written particularly for forest...

Climate of the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness, central Idaho

Treesearch

Arnold I. Finklin

1988-01-01

Describes the climate of the largest designated wilderness in the conterminous United States. Contains numerous maps, graphs, and tables. Shows annual patterns and 10-day details during the fire season. Includes both average values and frequency distributions. Examines relationship of climatic averages to topography, persistence of weather, and climatic trends.

What Is Motivating Middle-School Science Teachers to Teach Climate Change?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-01-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers…

Assessing Elementary Science Methods Students' Understanding about Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lambert, Julie L.; Lindgren, Joan; Bleicher, Robert

2012-01-01

Global climate change, referred to as climate change in this paper, has become an important planetary issue, and given that K-12 students have numerous alternative conceptions or lack of prior knowledge, it is critical that teachers have an understanding of the fundamental science underlying climate change. Teachers need to understand the natural…

Managing shifting species: Ancient DNA reveals conservation conundrums in a dynamic world.

PubMed

Waters, Jonathan M; Grosser, Stefanie

2016-11-01

The spread of exotic species represents a major driver of biological change across the planet. While dispersal and colonization are natural biological processes, we suggest that the failure to recognize increasing rates of human-facilitated self-introductions may represent a threat to native lineages. Notably, recent biogeographic analyses have revealed numerous cases of biological range shifts in response to anthropogenic impacts and climate change. In particular, ancient DNA analyses have revealed several cases in which lineages traditionally thought to be long-established "natives" are in fact recent colonizers. Such range expansion events have apparently occurred in response to human-mediated native biodiversity declines and ecosystem change, particularly in recently colonized, isolated ecosystems such as New Zealand. While such events can potentially boost local biodiversity, the spread of exotic lineages may also hasten the decline of indigenous species, so it is essential that conservation managers recognize these rapid biotic shifts.​. © 2016 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Sensitivity and rapidity of vegetational response to abrupt climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peteet, D.

2000-01-01

Rapid climate change characterizes numerous terrestrial sediment records during and since the last glaciation. Vegetational response is best expressed in terrestrial records near ecotones, where sensitivity to climate change is greatest, and response times are as short as decades.

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Rizzi, J.; Marcomini, A.

2012-07-01

Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA) methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems) in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection), which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion). Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) are fully described in the paper.

Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

PubMed

Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

2014-02-21

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C.

2014-01-01

A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change. PMID:24566049

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions.

PubMed

Djekic, I; Kuzmanović, J; Anđelković, A; Saračević, M; Stojanović, M M; Tomašević, I

2016-09-01

This paper examined the relationships among hygiene indicators in take-away foodservice establishments and the impact of climatic conditions. A total of 7545 samples were collected encompassing 2050 from food handlers' (HF) hands, 3991 from stainless steel food contact surfaces (FCS) and 1504 samples from plastic FCS. The study covered a period of 43 months. Hygiene-indicator bacteria (total plate count, Enterobacteriaceae Staphylococcus) were determined from the samples collected from 559 different take-away establishments. Climatic conditions were evaluated in respect to the outside temperature, pressure, humidity and precipitation. Logistic regression confirmed that the presence of precipitation was associated with an increased likelihood of exhibiting both Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus on HF' hands as well as exhibiting Enterobacteriaceae on both types of FCS. Numerable Enterobacteriaceae and Staphylococcus levels on HF' hands were detected when higher outside temperatures and higher precipitations occurred. Higher outside temperatures were observed when Enterobacteriaceae were detected on both plastics (P < 0·05) and stainless steel (P > 0·05). Higher precipitation was observed when Enterobacteriaceae was detected on stainless steel while in contrast, this indicator was detected on plastics in periods with lower precipitation. This research confirms relationships between hygiene indicators in take-aways and climatic conditions, mostly temperature and precipitation. This study provides another perspective into the possible nature of cross-contamination and foodborne outbreaks originating in foodservice establishments and brings to attention the necessity of analysing various climatic conditions. © 2016 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

Estimating the numerical diapycnal mixing in an eddy-permitting ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megann, Alex

2018-01-01

Constant-depth (or "z-coordinate") ocean models such as MOM4 and NEMO have become the de facto workhorse in climate applications, having attained a mature stage in their development and are well understood. A generic shortcoming of this model type, however, is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which in some cases may exceed the explicitly parameterised mixing based on observed physical processes, and this is likely to have effects on the long-timescale evolution of the simulated climate system. Despite this, few quantitative estimates have been made of the typical magnitude of the effective diapycnal diffusivity due to numerical mixing in these models. GO5.0 is a recent ocean model configuration developed jointly by the UK Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre. It forms the ocean component of the GC2 climate model, and is closely related to the ocean component of the UKESM1 Earth System Model, the UK's contribution to the CMIP6 model intercomparison. GO5.0 uses version 3.4 of the NEMO model, on the ORCA025 global tripolar grid. An approach to quantifying the numerical diapycnal mixing in this model, based on the isopycnal watermass analysis of Lee et al. (2002), is described, and the estimates thereby obtained of the effective diapycnal diffusivity in GO5.0 are compared with the values of the explicit diffusivity used by the model. It is shown that the effective mixing in this model configuration is up to an order of magnitude higher than the explicit mixing in much of the ocean interior, implying that mixing in the model below the mixed layer is largely dominated by numerical mixing. This is likely to have adverse consequences for the representation of heat uptake in climate models intended for decadal climate projections, and in particular is highly relevant to the interpretation of the CMIP6 class of climate models, many of which use constant-depth ocean models at ¼° resolution

Diffusion impact on atmospheric moisture transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moseley, C.; Haerter, J.; Göttel, H.; Hagemann, S.; Jacob, D.

2009-04-01

To ensure numerical stability, many global and regional climate models employ numerical diffusion to dampen short wavelength modes. Terrain following sigma diffusion is known to cause unphysical effects near the surface in orographically structured regions. They can be reduced by applying z-diffusion on geopotential height levels. We investigate the effect of the diffusion scheme on atmospheric moisture transport and precipitation formation at different resolutions in the European region. With respect to a better understanding of diffusion in current and future grid-space global models, current day regional models may serve as the appropriate tool for studies of the impact of diffusion schemes: Results can easily be constrained to a small test region and checked against reliable observations, which often are unavailable on a global scale. Special attention is drawn to the Alps - a region of strong topographic gradients and good observational coverage. Our study is further motivated by the appearance of the "summer drying problem" in South Eastern Europe. This too warm and too dry simulation of climate is common to many regional climate models and also to some global climate models, and remains a permanent unsolved problem in the community. We perform a systematic comparison of the two diffusion-schemes with respect to the hydrological cycle. In particular, we investigate how local meteorological quantities - such as the atmospheric moisture in the region east of the Alps - depend on the spatial model resolution. Higher model resolution would lead to a more accurate representation of the topography and entail larger gradients in the Alps. This could lead to consecutively stronger transport of moisture along the slopes in the case of sigma-diffusion with subsequent orographic precipitation, whereas the effect could be qualitatively different in the case of z-diffusion. For our study, we analyse a sequence of simulations of the regional climate model REMO employing the different diffusion methods over Europe. For these simulations, REMO was forced at the lateral boundaries with ERA40 reanalysis data for a five year period. For our higher resolution simulations we employ the double nesting technique.

2016 Climate Trends Continue to Break Records

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

Two key climate change indicators -- global surface temperatures and Arctic sea ice extent -- have broken numerous records through the first half of 2016, according to NASA analyses of ground-based observations and satellite data. Each of the first six months of 2016 set a record as the warmest respective month globally in the modern temperature record, which dates to 1880, according to scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The six-month period from January to June was also the planet's warmest half-year on record, with an average temperature 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the late nineteenth century. Read more: go.nasa.gov/29SQngq Credit: NASA/Goddard NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Students' Perceptions of Motivational Climate and Enjoyment in Finnish Physical Education: A Latent Profile Analysis.

PubMed

Jaakkola, Timo; Wang, C K John; Soini, Markus; Liukkonen, Jarmo

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to identify student clusters with homogenous profiles in perceptions of task- and ego-involving, autonomy, and social relatedness supporting motivational climate in school physical education. Additionally, we investigated whether different motivational climate groups differed in their enjoyment in PE. Participants of the study were 2 594 girls and 1 803 boys, aged 14-15 years. Students responded to questionnaires assessing their perception of motivational climate and enjoyment in physical education. Latent profile analyses produced a five-cluster solution labeled 1) 'low autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group', 2) 'low autonomy, relatedness, and high task and ego climate, 3) 'moderate autonomy, relatedness, task and ego climate' group 4) 'high autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group, and 5) 'high relatedness and task but moderate autonomy and ego climate' group. Analyses of variance showed that students in clusters 4 and 5 perceived the highest level of enjoyment whereas students in cluster 1 experienced the lowest level of enjoyment. The results showed that the students' perceptions of various motivational climates created differential levels of enjoyment in PE classes. Key pointsLatent profile analyses produced a five-cluster solution labeled 1) 'low autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group', 2) 'low autonomy, relatedness, and high task and ego climate, 3) 'moderate autonomy, relatedness, task and ego climate' group 4) 'high autonomy, relatedness, task, and moderate ego climate' group, and 5) 'high relatedness and task but moderate autonomy and ego climate' group.Analyses of variance showed that clusters 4 and 5 perceived the highest level of enjoyment whereas cluster 1 experienced the lowest level of enjoyment. The results showed that the students' perceptions of motivational climate create differential levels of enjoyment in PE classes.

CONSTABLE: A Global Climate Model for Classroom Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cerveny, Randall S.; And Others

1985-01-01

Described is the global climate model CONSTABLE (Climatic One-Dimensional Numerical Simulation of the Annual Balance of Latitudinal Energy), which can be used in undergraduate and graduate level climatology courses. Classroom exercises that can be used with the model are also included. (RM)

Phytoplankton and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moisan, John R.

2009-01-01

Ocean phytoplankton supply about half of the oxygen that humans utilize to sustain life. In this lecture, we will explore how phytoplankton plays a critical role in modulating the Earth's climate. These tiny organisms are the base of the Ocean's food web. They can modulate the rate at which solar heat is absorbed by the ocean, either through direct absorption or through production of highly scattering cellular coverings. They take up and help sequester carbon dioxide, a key greenhouse gas that modulated the Earth's climate. They are the source of cloud nucleation gases that are key to cloud formation/processes. They are also able to modify the nutrient budgets of the ocean through active uptake of inert atmospheric nitrogen. Climate variations have a pronounced impact on phytoplankton dynamics. Long term variations in the climate have been studied through geological interpretations on its influence on phytoplankton populations. The presentation will focus on presenting the numerous linkages that have been observed between climate and phytoplankton and further discuss how present climate change scenarios are likely to impact phytoplankton populations as well as present findings from several studies that have tried to understand how the climate might react to the feedbacks from these numerous climate-phytop|ankton linkages.

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Chronology of fluvial terrace sequences for large Atlantic rivers in the Iberian Peninsula (Upper Tagus and Duero drainage basins, Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Pablo G.; Roquero, Elvira; López-Recio, Mario; Huerta, Pedro; Martínez-Graña, Antonio M.

2017-06-01

This work analyses the chronology of fluvial terrace sequences of the two most important fluvial basins from central Spain draining to the Atlantic Ocean (Upper Tagus and Duero drainage basins). Both basins evolved under similar Mediterranean climatic conditions throughout the Pleistocene and present comparable number of fluvial terraces (16-17) after excluding the higher terrace levels of the Tagus (T1-T5) entrenched in the Raña surface. These higher ;rañizo terraces; was formed in response to fan-head trenching in this high alluvial piedmont (+220 m) and therefore not properly controlled by Quaternary fluvial downcutting. The study accomplishes the implementation of multiple regression analyses for terrace height-age relationships. To transform relative terrace heights above the present river thalwegs (i.e. +100 m) in numerical ages a ;height-age transference function; has been developed on the basis of preliminary statistical geochronological approaches proposed for Central Spain. The resultant height-age transference function gather 73 published geochronological data for terrace sequences, featuring a 3rd Order Polynomial Function (R2 0.90). This function describes the overall trend of valley downcutting for the last c. 2.3 Ma in Central Spain and is used to assign numerical ages to terrace levels at different relative elevation.

Precipitation Modeling over the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets and the Relationship to the Surface Mass Balance and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bromwich, David H.; Chen, Qui-Shi

2005-01-01

Atmospheric numerical simulation and dynamic retrieval method with atmospheric numerical analyses are used to assess the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic precipitation for the last two decades. First, the Polar MM5 has been run over Antarctica to study the Antarctic precipitation. With a horizontal resolution of 60km, the Polar MM5 has been run for the period of July 1996 through June 1999 in a series of short-term forecasts from initial and boundary conditions provided by the ECMWF operational analyses. In comparison with climatological maps, the major features of the spatial distribution of Antarctic precipitation are well captured by the Polar MM5. Drift snow effects on redistribution of surface accumulation over Antarctica are also assessed with surface wind fields from Polar MM5 in this study. There are complex divergence and convergence patterns of drift snow transport over Antarctica, especially along the coast. It is found that areas with large drift snow transport convergence and divergence are located around escarpment areas where there is large katabatic wind acceleration. In addition, areas with large snow transport divergence are generally accompanied by areas with large snow transport convergence nearby, indicating that drift snow transport is of local importance for the redistribution of the snowfall

Climate Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Space, William

2007-01-01

Numerous connections exist between climate science and topics normally covered in physics and physical science courses. For instance, lessons on heat and light can be used to introduce basic climate science, and the study of electric circuits provides a context for studying the relationship between electricity consumption and carbon pollution. To…

Contrasting Modern and 10Be- derived erosion rates for the Southern Betic Cordillera, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellin, N.; Vanacker, V.; Kubik, P.

2012-04-01

In Europe, Southeast Spain was identified as one of the regions with major treat of desertification in the context of future land use and climate change. During the last years, significant progress has been made to understand spatial patterns of modern erosion rates in these semi-arid degraded environments. Numerous European projects have contributed to the collection of modern erosion data at different spatial scales for Southeast Spain. However, these data are rarely analysed in the context of long-term changes in vegetation, climate and human occupation. In this paper, we present Modern and Holocene denudation rates for small river basins (1 to 10 km2) located in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. Long-term erosion data were derived from cosmogenic nuclide analyses of river-borne sediment. Modern erosion data were quantified through analysis of sediment deposition volumes behind check dams, and represent average erosion rates over the last 10 to 40 years. Modern erosion rates are surprisingly low (mean erosion rate = 0.048 mm y-1; n=36). They indicate that the steep, sparsely vegetated hillslopes in the Betic Cordillera cannot directly be associated with high erosion rates. 10Be -derived erosion rates integrate over the last 37500 to 3500 years, and are roughly of the same magnitude. They range from 0.013 to 0.243 mm y-1 (mean denudation rate = 0.062 mm y-1 ± 0.054; n=20). Our data suggest that the modern erosion rates are similar to the long-term erosion rates in this area. This result is in contrast with the numerous reports on human-accelerated modern erosion rates for Southeast Spain. Interestingly, our new data on long-term erosion rates show a clear spatial pattern, with higher erosion rates in the Sierra Cabrera and lower erosion rates in Sierra de las Estancias, and Sierra Torrecilla. Preliminary geomorphometric analyses suggest that the spatial variation that we observe in long-term erosion rates is related to the gradient in uplift rates of the Betic Cordillera.

Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland-A cross-sectional survey study.

PubMed

Mascherek, Anna C; Schwappach, David L B

2017-01-01

Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of "climate strength" has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely.

Assessing the Role of Seafloor Weathering in Global Geochemical Cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahat, N. X.; Abbot, D. S.; Archer, D. E.

2015-12-01

Low-temperature alteration of the basaltic upper oceanic crust, known as seafloor weathering, has been proposed as a mechanism for long-term climate regulation similar to the continental climate-weathering negative feedback. Despite this potentially far-reaching impact of seafloor weathering on habitable planet evolution, existing modeling frameworks do not include the full scope of alteration reactions or recent findings of convective flow dynamics. We present a coupled fluid dynamic and geochemical numerical model of low-temperature, off-axis hydrothermal activity. This model is designed to explore the the seafloor weathering flux of carbon to the oceanic crust and its responsiveness to climate fluctuations. The model's ability to reproduce the seafloor weathering environment is evaluated by constructing numerical simulations for comparison with two low-temperature hydrothermal systems: A transect east of the Juan de Fuca Ridge and the southern Costa Rica Rift flank. We explore the sensitivity of carbon uptake by seafloor weathering on climate and geology by varying deep ocean temperature, seawater dissolved inorganic carbon, continental weathering inputs, and basaltic host rock in a suite of numerical experiments.

Forest Adaptation Resources: climate change tools and approaches for land managers, 2nd edition

Treesearch

Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Abigail Derby Lewis; Kimberly Hall; Robert T. Fahey; Lydia Scott; Angela Kerber; Jason W. Miesbauer; Lindsay Darling

2016-01-01

Forests across the United States are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This second edition of the Forest Adaptation Resources provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed as part of the Climate Change...

Climate change & livestock health on the U.S. Northern Plains; Actionable economic insights & needs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change will impact livestock health through numerous direct mechanisms and indirect drivers. Examples of direct mechanisms include climate-driven changes in the biology of pathogens, and the distribution of vectors. Indirect drivers may include changes in environmental factors, land-use, and...

Wind energy resource modelling in Portugal and its future large-scale alteration due to anthropogenic induced climate changes =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalho, David Joao da Silva

The high dependence of Portugal from foreign energy sources (mainly fossil fuels), together with the international commitments assumed by Portugal and the national strategy in terms of energy policy, as well as resources sustainability and climate change issues, inevitably force Portugal to invest in its energetic self-sufficiency. The 20/20/20 Strategy defined by the European Union defines that in 2020 60% of the total electricity consumption must come from renewable energy sources. Wind energy is currently a major source of electricity generation in Portugal, producing about 23% of the national total electricity consumption in 2013. The National Energy Strategy 2020 (ENE2020), which aims to ensure the national compliance of the European Strategy 20/20/20, states that about half of this 60% target will be provided by wind energy. This work aims to implement and optimise a numerical weather prediction model in the simulation and modelling of the wind energy resource in Portugal, both in offshore and onshore areas. The numerical model optimisation consisted in the determination of which initial and boundary conditions and planetary boundary layer physical parameterizations options provide wind power flux (or energy density), wind speed and direction simulations closest to in situ measured wind data. Specifically for offshore areas, it is also intended to evaluate if the numerical model, once optimised, is able to produce power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ measured data than wind measurements collected by satellites. This work also aims to study and analyse possible impacts that anthropogenic climate changes may have on the future wind energetic resource in Europe. The results show that the ECMWF reanalysis ERA-Interim are those that, among all the forcing databases currently available to drive numerical weather prediction models, allow wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements. It was also found that the Pleim-Xiu and ACM2 planetary boundary layer parameterizations are the ones that showed the best performance in terms of wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations. This model optimisation allowed a significant reduction of the wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations errors and, specifically for offshore areas, wind power flux, wind speed and direction simulations more consistent with in situ wind measurements than data obtained from satellites, which is a very valuable and interesting achievement. This work also revealed that future anthropogenic climate changes can negatively impact future European wind energy resource, due to tendencies towards a reduction in future wind speeds especially by the end of the current century and under stronger radiative forcing conditions.

Climatic niche shift predicts thermal trait response in one but not both introductions of the Puerto Rican lizard Anolis cristatellus to Miami, Florida, USA

PubMed Central

Kolbe, Jason J; VanMiddlesworth, Paul S; Losin, Neil; Dappen, Nathan; Losos, Jonathan B

2012-01-01

Global change is predicted to alter environmental conditions for populations in numerous ways; for example, invasive species often experience substantial shifts in climatic conditions during introduction from their native to non-native ranges. Whether these shifts elicit a phenotypic response, and how adaptation and phenotypic plasticity contribute to phenotypic change, are key issues for understanding biological invasions and how populations may respond to local climate change. We combined modeling, field data, and a laboratory experiment to test for changing thermal tolerances during the introduction of the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus from Puerto Rico to Miami, Florida. Species distribution models and bioclimatic data analyses showed lower minimum temperatures, and greater seasonal and annual variation in temperature for Miami compared to Puerto Rico. Two separate introductions of A. cristatellus occurred in Miami about 12 km apart, one in South Miami and the other on Key Biscayne, an offshore island. As predicted from the shift in the thermal climate and the thermal tolerances of other Anolis species in Miami, laboratory acclimation and field acclimatization showed that the introduced South Miami population of A. cristatellus has diverged from its native-range source population by acquiring low-temperature acclimation ability. By contrast, the introduced Key Biscayne population showed little change compared to its source. Our analyses predicted an adaptive response for introduced populations, but our comparisons to native-range sources provided evidence for thermal plasticity in one introduced population but not the other. The rapid acquisition of thermal plasticity by A. cristatellus in South Miami may be advantageous for its long-term persistence there and expansion of its non-native range. Our results also suggest that the common assumption of no trait variation when modeling non-native species distributions is invalid. PMID:22957158

Long-term analyses of snow dynamics within the french Alps on the 1900-2100 period. Analyses of historical snow water equivalent observations, modelisations and projections of a hundred of snow courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathevet, T.; Joel, G.; Gottardi, F.; Nemoz, B.

2017-12-01

The aim of this communication is to present analyses of climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) observations, reconstructions (1900-2016) and scenarii (2020-2100) of a hundred of snow courses dissiminated within the french Alps. This issue became particularly important since a decade, in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production. As a water resources manager in french mountainuous regions, EDF (french hydropower company) has developed and managed a hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurments of a hundred of snow courses within the french Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to the snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow accumulation and melt model (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2016 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Considering various mountainous areas within the french Alps, this communication focuses on : (1) long term (1900-2016) analyses of variability and trend of total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length , (2) long term variability of hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii. Comparing historical period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2016), quantitative results within a region in the north Alps (Maurienne) shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season length by 15 days. These analyses will be extended from north to south of the Alps, on a region spanning 200 km. Caracterisation of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts snow resorts and artificial snow production developments and multi-purposes dam reservoirs managments.

Patient safety climate profiles across time: Strength and level of safety climate associated with a quality improvement program in Switzerland—A cross-sectional survey study

PubMed Central

Mascherek, Anna C.

2017-01-01

Safety Climate has been acknowledged as an unspecific factor influencing patient safety. However, studies rarely provide in-depth analysis of climate data. As a helpful approach, the concept of “climate strength” has been proposed. In the present study we tested the hypotheses that even if safety climate remains stable on mean-level across time, differences might be evident in strength or shape. The data of two hospitals participating in a large national quality improvement program were analysed for differences in climate profiles at two measurement occasions. We analysed differences on mean-level, differences in percent problematic response, agreement within groups, and frequency histograms in two large hospitals in Switzerland at two measurement occasions (2013 and 2015) applying the Safety Climate Survey. In total, survey responses of 1193 individuals were included in the analyses. Overall, small but significant differences on mean-level of safety climate emerged for some subgroups. Also, although agreement was strong at both time-points within groups, tendencies of divergence or consensus were present in both hospitals. Depending on subgroup and analyses chosen, differences were more or less pronounced. The present study illustrated that taking several measures into account and describing safety climate from different perspectives is necessary in order to fully understand differences and trends within groups and to develop interventions addressing the needs of different groups more precisely. PMID:28753633

Scaling Forest Management Practices in Earth System Models: Case Study of Southeast and Pacific Northwest Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmokhtarian, A.; Becknell, J. M.; Hall, J.; Desai, A. R.; Boring, L. R.; Duffy, P.; Staudhammer, C. L.; Starr, G.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

A wide array of human-induced disturbances can alter the structure and function of forests, including climate change, disturbance and management. While there have been numerous studies on climate change impacts on forests, interactions of management with changing climate and natural disturbance are poorly studied. Forecasts of the range of plausible responses of forests to climate change and management are need for informed decision making on new management approaches under changing climate, as well as adaptation strategies for coming decades. Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) provide an excellent opportunity to investigate and assess simultaneous responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic perturbations and management across multiple spatio-temporal scales, but currently do not represent a wide array of management activities known to impact carbon, water, surface energy fluxes, and biodiversity. The Ecosystem Demography model 2 (ED2) incorporates non-linear impacts of fine-scale (~10-1 km) heterogeneity in ecosystem structure both horizontally and vertically at a plant level. Therefore it is an ideal candidate to incorporate different forest management practices and test various hypotheses under changing climate and across various spatial scales. The management practices that we implemented were: clear-cut, conversion, planting, partial harvest, low intensity fire, restoration, salvage, and herbicide. The results were validated against observed data across 8 different sites in the U.S. Southeast (Duke Forest, Joseph Jones Ecological Research Center, North Carolina Loblolly Pine, and Ordway-Swisher Biological Station) and Pacific Northwest (Metolius Research Natural Area, H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Wind River Field Station, and Mount Rainier National Park). These sites differ in regards to climate, vegetation, soil, and historical land disturbance as well as management approaches. Results showed that different management practices could successfully and realistically be implemented in the ED2 model at a site level. Moreover, sensitivity analyses determined the most important processes at different spatial scales, and also those which could be ignored while minimizing overall error.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Development of ALARO-Climate regional climate model for a very high resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skalak, Petr; Farda, Ales; Brozkova, Radmila; Masek, Jan

2013-04-01

ALARO-Climate is a new regional climate model (RCM) derived from the ALADIN LAM model family. It is based on the numerical weather prediction model ALARO and developed at the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute. The model is expected to able to work in the so called "grey zone" physics (horizontal resolution of 4 - 7 km) and at the same time retain its ability to be operated in resolutions in between 20 and 50 km, which are typical for contemporary generation of regional climate models. Here we present the main features of the RCM ALARO-Climate and results of the first model simulations on longer time-scales (1961-1990). The model was driven by the ERA-40/Interim re-analyses and run on the large pan-European integration domain ("ENSEMBLES / Euro-Cordex domain") with spatial resolution of 25 km. The simulated model climate was compared with the gridded observation of air temperature (mean, maximum, minimum) and precipitation from the E-OBS version 7 dataset. The validation of the first ERA-40 simulation has revealed significant cold biases in all seasons (between -4 and -2 °C) and overestimation of precipitation on 20% to 60% in the selected Central Europe target area (0° - 30° eastern longitude ; 40° - 60° northern latitude). The consequent adaptations in the model and their effect on the simulated properties of climate variables are illustrated. Acknowledgements: This study was performed within the frame of projects ALARO (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation) and CzechGlobe Centre (CZ.1.05/1.1.00/02.0073). The partial support was also provided under the projects P209-11-0956 of the Czech Science Foundation and CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056 (Operational Programme of Education for Competitiveness of Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic).

A Numerical Climate Observing Network Design Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stammer, Detlef

2003-01-01

This project was concerned with three related questions of an optimal design of a climate observing system: 1. The spatial sampling characteristics required from an ARGO system. 2. The degree to which surface observations from ARGO can be used to calibrate and test satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface salinity (SSS) as it is anticipated now. 3. The more general design of an climate observing system as it is required in the near future for CLIVAR in the Atlantic. An important question in implementing an observing system is that of the sampling density required to observe climate-related variations in the ocean. For that purpose this project was concerned with the sampling requirements for the ARGO float system, but investigated also other elements of a climate observing system. As part of this project we studied the horizontal and vertical sampling characteristics of a global ARGO system which is required to make it fully complementary to altimeter data with the goal to capture climate related variations on large spatial scales (less thanAttachment: 1000 km). We addressed this question in the framework of a numerical model study in the North Atlantic with an 1/6 horizontal resolution. The advantage of a numerical design study is the knowledge of the full model state. Sampled by a synthetic float array, model results will therefore allow to test and improve existing deployment strategies with the goal to make the system as optimal and cost-efficient as possible. Attachment: "Optimal observations for variational data assimilation".

Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

DOE PAGES

Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2014-02-25

Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2015-04-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterized and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterized uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Techniques for analyses of trends in GRUAN data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodeker, G. E.; Kremser, S.

2014-12-01

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) provides reference quality RS92 radiosonde measurements of temperature, pressure and humidity. A key attribute of reference quality measurements, and hence GRUAN data, is that each datum has a well characterised and traceable estimate of the measurement uncertainty. The long-term homogeneity of the measurement records, and their well characterised uncertainties, make these data suitable for reliably detecting changes in global and regional climate on decadal time scales. Considerable effort is invested in GRUAN operations to (i) describe and analyse all sources of measurement uncertainty to the extent possible, (ii) quantify and synthesize the contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total measurement uncertainty, and (iii) verify that the evaluated net uncertainty is within the required target uncertainty. However, if the climate science community is not sufficiently well informed on how to capitalize on this added value, the significant investment in estimating meaningful measurement uncertainties is largely wasted. This paper presents and discusses the techniques that will need to be employed to reliably quantify long-term trends in GRUAN data records. A pedagogical approach is taken whereby numerical recipes for key parts of the trend analysis process are explored. The paper discusses the construction of linear least squares regression models for trend analysis, boot-strapping approaches to determine uncertainties in trends, dealing with the combined effects of autocorrelation in the data and measurement uncertainties in calculating the uncertainty on trends, best practice for determining seasonality in trends, how to deal with co-linear basis functions, and interpreting derived trends. Synthetic data sets are used to demonstrate these concepts which are then applied to a first analysis of temperature trends in RS92 radiosonde upper air soundings at the GRUAN site at Lindenberg, Germany (52.21° N, 14.12° E).

Studying Weather and Climate Using Atmospheric Retrospective Analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-12-01

Over the last 35 years, tremendous amounts of satellite observations of the Earth's atmosphere have been collected along side the much longer and diverse record of in situ measurements. The satellite data records have disparate qualities, structure and uncertainty which make comparing weather from the 80s and 2000s a challenging prospect. Likewise, in-situ data records lack complete coverage of the earth in both space and time. Atmospheric reanalyses use the observations with numerical models and data assimilation to produce continuous and consistent weather data records for periods longer than decades. The result is a simplified data format with a relatively straightforward learning curve that includes many more variables available (through the modeling component of the system), but driven by a full suite of observational data. The simplified data format allows introduction into weather and climate data analysis. Some examples are provided from undergraduate meteorology program internship projects. We will present the students progression through the projects from their initial understanding and competencies to some final results and the skills learned along the way. Reanalyses are a leading research tool in weather and climate, but can also provide an introductory experience as well, allowing students to develop an understanding of the physical system while learning basic programming and analysis skills.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Forest adaptation resources: Climate change tools and approaches for land managers

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria, eds. Janowiak

2012-01-01

The forests of northern Wisconsin, a defining feature of the region's landscape, are expected to undergo numerous changes in response to the changing climate. This document provides a collection of resources designed to help forest managers incorporate climate change considerations into management and devise adaptation tactics. It was developed in northern...

Generating synthetic wave climates for coastal modelling: a linear mixed modelling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, C.; Lark, R. M.

2013-12-01

Numerical coastline morphological evolution models require wave climate properties to drive morphological change through time. Wave climate properties (typically wave height, period and direction) may be temporally fixed, culled from real wave buoy data, or allowed to vary in some way defined by a Gaussian or other pdf. However, to examine sensitivity of coastline morphologies to wave climate change, it seems desirable to be able to modify wave climate time series from a current to some new state along a trajectory, but in a way consistent with, or initially conditioned by, the properties of existing data, or to generate fully synthetic data sets with realistic time series properties. For example, mean or significant wave height time series may have underlying periodicities, as revealed in numerous analyses of wave data. Our motivation is to develop a simple methodology to generate synthetic wave climate time series that can change in some stochastic way through time. We wish to use such time series in a coastline evolution model to test sensitivities of coastal landforms to changes in wave climate over decadal and centennial scales. We have worked initially on time series of significant wave height, based on data from a Waverider III buoy located off the coast of Yorkshire, England. The statistical framework for the simulation is the linear mixed model. The target variable, perhaps after transformation (Box-Cox), is modelled as a multivariate Gaussian, the mean modelled as a function of a fixed effect, and two random components, one of which is independently and identically distributed (iid) and the second of which is temporally correlated. The model was fitted to the data by likelihood methods. We considered the option of a periodic mean, the period either fixed (e.g. at 12 months) or estimated from the data. We considered two possible correlation structures for the second random effect. In one the correlation decays exponentially with time. In the second (spherical) model, it cuts off at a temporal range. Having fitted the model, multiple realisations were generated; the random effects were simulated by specifying a covariance matrix for the simulated values, with the estimated parameters. The Cholesky factorisation of the covariance matrix was computed and realizations of the random component of the model generated by pre-multiplying a vector of iid standard Gaussian variables by the lower triangular factor. The resulting random variate was added to the mean value computed from the fixed effects, and the result back-transformed to the original scale of the measurement. Realistic simulations result from approach described above. Background exploratory data analysis was undertaken on 20-day sets of 30-minute buoy data, selected from days 5-24 of months January, April, July, October, 2011, to elucidate daily to weekly variations, and to keep numerical analysis tractable computationally. Work remains to be undertaken to develop suitable models for synthetic directional data. We suggest that the general principles of the method will have applications in other geomorphological modelling endeavours requiring time series of stochastically variable environmental parameters.

Climate versus human-driven fire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes: the Holocene record of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vannière, B.; Colombaroli, D.; Chapron, E.; Leroux, A.; Tinner, W.; Magny, M.

2008-06-01

A high-resolution sedimentary charcoal record from Lago dell'Accesa in southern Tuscany reveals numerous changes in fire regime over the last 11.6 kyr cal. BP and provides one of the longest gap-free series from Italy and the Mediterranean region. Charcoal analyses are coupled with gamma density measurements, organic-content analyses, and pollen counts to provide data about sedimentation and vegetation history. A comparison between fire frequency and lake-level reconstructions from the same site is used to address the centennial variability of fire regimes and its linkage to hydrological processes. Our data reveal strong relationships among climate, fire, vegetation, and land-use and attest to the paramount importance of fire in Mediterranean ecosystems. The mean fire interval (MFI) for the entire Holocene was estimated to be 150 yr, with a minimum around 80 yr and a maximum around 450 yr. Between 11.6 and 3.6 kyr cal. BP, up to eight high-frequency fire phases lasting 300-500 yr generally occurred during shifts towards low lake-level stands (ca 11,300, 10,700, 9500, 8700, 7600, 6200, 5300, 3400, 1800 and 1350 cal. yr BP). Therefore, we assume that most of these shifts were triggered by drier climatic conditions and especially a dry summer season that promoted ignition and biomass burning. At the beginning of the Holocene, high climate seasonality favoured fire expansion in this region, as in many other ecosystems of the northern and southern hemispheres. Human impact affected fire regimes and especially fire frequencies since the Neolithic (ca 8000-4000 cal. yr BP). Burning as a consequence of anthropogenic activities became more frequent after the onset of the Bronze Age (ca 3800-3600 cal. yr BP) and appear to be synchronous with the development of settlements in the region, slash-and-burn agriculture, animal husbandry, and mineral exploitation. The anthropogenic phases with maximum fire activity corresponded to greater sensitivity of the vegetation and triggered significant changes in vegetational communities (e.g. temporal declines of Quercus ilex forests and expansion of shrublands and macchia). The link between fire and climate persisted during the mid- and late Holocene, when human impact on vegetation and the fire regime was high. This finding suggests that climatic conditions were important for fire occurrence even under strongly humanised ecosystem conditions.

Numerical modeling of perched water under Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinds, J.J.; Ge, S.; Fridrich, C.J.

1999-01-01

The presence of perched water near the potential high-level nuclear waste repository area at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has important implications for waste isolation. Perched water occurs because of sharp contrasts in rock properties, in particular between the strongly fractured repository host rock (the Topopah Spring welded tuff) and the immediately underlying vitrophyric (glassy) subunit, in which fractures are sealed by clays that were formed by alteration of the volcanic glass. The vitrophyre acts as a vertical barrier to unsaturated flow throughout much of the potential repository area. Geochemical analyses (Yang et al. 1996) indicate that perched water is relatively young, perhaps younger than 10,000 years. Given the low permeability of the rock matrix, fractures and perhaps fault zones must play a crucial role in unsaturated flow. The geologic setting of the major perched water bodies under Yucca Mountain suggests that faults commonly form barriers to lateral flow at the level of the repository horizon, but may also form important pathways for vertical infiltration from the repository horizon down to the water table. Using the numerical code UNSAT2, two factors believed to influence the perched water system at Yucca Mountain, climate and fault-zone permeability, are explored. The two-dimensional model predicts that the volume of water held within the perched water system may greatly increase under wetter climatic conditions, and that perched water bodies may drain to the water table along fault zones. Modeling results also show fault flow to be significantly attenuated in the Paintbrush Tuff non-welded hydrogeologic unit.

Carbon dioxide and climate: a second assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

For over a century, concern has been expressed that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentration could affect global climate by changing the heat balance of the atmosphere and Earth. Observations reveal steadily increasing concentrations of CO/sub 2/, and experiments with numerical climate models indicate that continued increase would eventually produce significant climatic change. Comprehensive assessment of the issue will require projection of future CO/sub 2/ emissions and study of the disposition of this excess carbon in the atmosphere, ocean, and biota; the effect on climate; and the implications for human welfare. This study focuses on one aspect, estimationmore » of the effect on climate of assumed future increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/. Conclusions are drawn principally from present-day numerical models of the climate system. To address the significant role of the oceans, the study also makes use of observations of the distributions of anthropogenic tracers other than CO/sub 2/. The rapid scientific developments in these areas suggest that periodic reassessments will be warranted. The starting point for the study was a similar 1979 review by a Climate Research Board panel chaired by the late Jule G. Charney. The present study has not found any new results that necessitate substantial revision of the conclusions of the Charney report.« less

Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teng, William; Shannon, Harlan

2011-01-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data).

Simple Messages Help Set the Record Straight about Scientific Agreement on Human-Caused Climate Change: The Results of Two Experiments

PubMed Central

Myers, Teresa A.; Maibach, Edward; Peters, Ellen; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-01-01

Human-caused climate change is happening; nearly all climate scientists are convinced of this basic fact according to surveys of experts and reviews of the peer-reviewed literature. Yet, among the American public, there is widespread misunderstanding of this scientific consensus. In this paper, we report results from two experiments, conducted with national samples of American adults, that tested messages designed to convey the high level of agreement in the climate science community about human-caused climate change. The first experiment tested hypotheses about providing numeric versus non-numeric assertions concerning the level of scientific agreement. We found that numeric statements resulted in higher estimates of the scientific agreement. The second experiment tested the effect of eliciting respondents’ estimates of scientific agreement prior to presenting them with a statement about the level of scientific agreement. Participants who estimated the level of agreement prior to being shown the corrective statement gave higher estimates of the scientific consensus than respondents who were not asked to estimate in advance, indicating that incorporating an “estimation and reveal” technique into public communication about scientific consensus may be effective. The interaction of messages with political ideology was also tested, and demonstrated that messages were approximately equally effective among liberals and conservatives. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. PMID:25812121

Simple messages help set the record straight about scientific agreement on human-caused climate change: the results of two experiments.

PubMed

Myers, Teresa A; Maibach, Edward; Peters, Ellen; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-01-01

Human-caused climate change is happening; nearly all climate scientists are convinced of this basic fact according to surveys of experts and reviews of the peer-reviewed literature. Yet, among the American public, there is widespread misunderstanding of this scientific consensus. In this paper, we report results from two experiments, conducted with national samples of American adults, that tested messages designed to convey the high level of agreement in the climate science community about human-caused climate change. The first experiment tested hypotheses about providing numeric versus non-numeric assertions concerning the level of scientific agreement. We found that numeric statements resulted in higher estimates of the scientific agreement. The second experiment tested the effect of eliciting respondents' estimates of scientific agreement prior to presenting them with a statement about the level of scientific agreement. Participants who estimated the level of agreement prior to being shown the corrective statement gave higher estimates of the scientific consensus than respondents who were not asked to estimate in advance, indicating that incorporating an "estimation and reveal" technique into public communication about scientific consensus may be effective. The interaction of messages with political ideology was also tested, and demonstrated that messages were approximately equally effective among liberals and conservatives. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.

Solar Energy Potential in a Changing Climate: Iberia and Azores Assessment Combining Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magarreiro, Clarisse de Lurdes Chapa

The proper characterization of solar radiation resource is essential for the design of any solar energy harnessing systems which aims its optimal performance. To this end, the solar resource is often quantified through solar radiation measurements at meteorological stations. Unfortunately radiation data recorded on the desired location is often inexistent. Furthermore, the actual existing solar radiation databases have also a limited temporal span and, more frequently than desired, missing values and non-uniform formats. Also, such databases consist almost entirely of global solar radiation; variables such as the nature of the solar energy (direct or diffuse) are rarely recorded. Atmospheric models can add value to solar energy applications by enabling solar resource assessments as they easily overcome the limited spatial and temporal coverage of irradiance measuring networks. Furthermore, climate models can be used for any region of the planet to assess the solar resource for not only present climate conditions but also to analyse its long-term past evolution and future tendency. Nowadays such models are a popular approach on the field of solar radiation forecasting but the quality evaluation of the solar radiation representation by such models is first of all a fundamental step to understand its usefulness. Having this in mind, in this thesis, a dynamical downscaling approach is used to evaluate simulated solar radiation at the Earth’s surface which will then enable the characterization of the solar resource. The model output is also combined with a statistical downscaling approach used in its simplest form to minimize the model biases. The work focuses primarily in the Iberian Peninsula as its large climate gradients are representative of diverse meteorological conditions, enabling therefore the adaptation of the presented methods to other regions. Then, following the same methodology, the solar resource of the Azores archipelago is also addressed. The Azores region is often neglected in solar resource assessments and solar resource maps of the Earth’s surface or even of Europe region. These methods are used to characterize the present climate renewable solar resource and analyse the impact of climate change on its projections for the end of the 21st century for both Iberia Peninsula and Azores archipelago. Atmospheric numerical models are however limited in the sense that they only provide global solar radiation, the direct normal radiation and diffuse components are not common outputs to the user. Given this, the separation of global radiation into its diffuse and direct components is analysed in this thesis through models of diffuse solar radiation fraction. One important characteristic of these models is that they are empirically derived from site-specific measurements and a model developed and validated in a very specific climate type region may not hold its suitability to other regions. This thesis focuses on the assessment of such models only for the Azores region which has not been object of this type of analysis before.

A climatic handbook for Glacier National Park-with data for Waterton Lakes National Park

Treesearch

Arnold I. Finklin

1986-01-01

A climatic description of the Glacier-Waterton Lakes Park area; mainly covers Glacier. Contains numerous tables, graphs, and maps showing the year-round pattern of climatic elements and 10-day details during fire season. Data analysis includes frequency distributions in addition to average values. Examines relationship of averages to topography, weather correlations...

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Integrated Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction and Taphonomy of a Unique Upper Cretaceous Vertebrate-Bearing Locality (Velaux, Southeastern France).

PubMed

Cincotta, Aude; Yans, Johan; Godefroit, Pascal; Garcia, Géraldine; Dejax, Jean; Benammi, Mouloud; Amico, Sauveur; Valentin, Xavier

2015-01-01

The Velaux-La Bastide Neuve fossil-bearing site (Bouches-du-Rhône, France) has yielded a diverse vertebrate assemblage dominated by dinosaurs, including the titanosaur Atsinganosaurus velauciensis. We here provide a complete inventory of vertebrate fossils collected during two large-scale field campaigns. Numerous crocodilian teeth occur together with complete skulls. Pterosaur, hybodont shark and fish elements are also represented but uncommon. Magnetostratigraphic analyses associated with biostratigraphic data from dinosaur eggshell and charophytes suggest a Late Campanian age for the locality. Lithologic and taphonomic studies, associated with microfacies and palynofacies analyses, indicate a fluvial setting of moderate energy with broad floodplain. Palynomorphs are quite rare; only three taxa of pollen grains occur: a bisaccate taxon, a second form probably belonging to the Normapolles complex, and another tricolporate taxon. Despite the good state of preservation, these taxa are generally difficult to identify, since they are scarce and have a very minute size. Most of the vertebrate remains are well preserved and suggest transport of the carcasses over short distances before accumulation in channel and overbank facies, together with reworked Aptian grains of glauconite, followed by a rapid burial. The bones accumulated in three thin layers that differ by their depositional modes and their taphonomic histories. Numerous calcareous and iron oxides-rich paleosols developed on the floodplain, suggesting an alternating dry and humid climate in the region during the Late Campanian.

50th Anniversary of Radiation Budget Measurements from Satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raschke, Ehrhard, ,, Dr.; Kinne, Stefan, ,, Dr.

2010-05-01

The "space race" between the USA and the Soviet Union supported rapid developments of instruments to measure properties of the atmosphere from satellite platforms. The satellite Explorer 7 (launch on 13 October 1959) was the first to carry sensors which were sensitive to the fluxes of solar (shortwave) and terrestrial (longwave) radiation leaving the Earth to space. Improved versions of those sensors and more complicated radiometers were flown on various operational and experimental satellites of the Nimbus, ESSA, TIROS, COSMOS, and NOAA series. There results, although often inherent to strong sampling insufficiencies, provided already a general picture on the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of radiation budget components at the Top of the Atmosphere, which finally could be refined with the more recent and more accurate and complete data sets of the experiments ERBE, CERES and ScRaB. Numerical analyses of climate data complemented such measurements to obtain a complete picture on the radiation budget at various levels within the atmosphere and at ground. These data is now used to validate the performance of climate models.

Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

The methodology, which includes a sequence of rigorous analyses and calculations, is intended to reduce the addition of uncertainty to the climate data as a result of the downscaling while providing the fine-scale climate information necessary for ecological analyses. It results in new but consistent data sets for the US at 4 km, the southwest US at 270 m, and California at 90 m and illustrates the utility of fine-scale downscaling to analyses of ecological processes influenced by topographic complexity.

What Can Modern River Profiles Tell Us about Orogenic Processes and Orogen Evolution?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whipple, K. X.

2008-12-01

Numerous lines of evidence from theory, numerical simulations, and physical experiments suggest that orogen evolution is strongly coupled to atmospheric processes through the interrelationships among climate, topography, and erosion rate. In terms of orogenic processes and orogen evolution, these relationships are most important at the regional scale (mean topographic gradient, mean relief above surrounding plains) largely because crustal deformation is most sensitive to erosional unloading averaged over sufficiently long wavelengths. For this reason, and because above moderate erosion rates (> 0.2 mm/yr) hillslope form becomes decoupled from erosion rate, attention has focused on the river network, and even on particularly large rivers. We now have data that demonstrates a monotonic relationship between erosion rate and the channel steepness index (slope normalized for differences in drainage area) in a variety of field settings. Consequently, study of modern river profiles can yield useful information on recent and on-going patterns of rock uplift. It is not yet possible, however, to quantitatively isolate expected climatic and lithologic influences on this relationship. A combination of field studies and theoretical analyses are beginning to reveal the timescale of landscape response, and thus the topographic memory of past conditions. At orogen scale, river profile response to a change in rock uplift rate is on the order of 1-10 Myr. Because of these long response times, the modern profiles of large rivers and their major tributaries can potentially preserve an interpretable record of rock uplift rates since the Miocene and are insensitive to short-term climatic fluctuations. Only significant increases in rock uplift rate, however, are likely to leave a clear topographic signature. Strategies have been developed to differentiate between temporal and spatial (tectonic, climatic, or lithologic) influences on channel profile form, especially where spatially distributed data on recent incision rates is available. A more difficult question is one of cause and effect. Only in some circumstances is it possible to determine whether rivers are steep in response to localized rock uplift or whether localized rock uplift occurs in response to rapidly incising steep rivers.

Using a geographic information system and hillslope runoff modeling to support decision-making for managed aquifer recharge using distributed stormwater collection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teo, E. K.; Beganskas, S.; Young, K. S.; Weir, W. B.; Harmon, R. E.; Lozano, S.; Fisher, A. T.

2017-12-01

Many aquifer systems in central coastal California face a triple threat of excess demand, changing land use, and a shifting climate. These last two factors can contribute to reductions in groundwater recharge. Managed aquifer recharge using distributed stormwater collection (DSC-MAR) is an adaptation technique for collecting excess stormwater runoff from hillslopes for infiltration into underlying aquifers, before that water reaches a "blue line" stream. We are developing a decision support system (DSS) that combines surface and subsurface hydrogeological data with high-resolution predictions of hillslope runoff, with specific application to Santa Cruz and northern Monterey Counties. Other studies presented at AGU will focus on the northern and southern parts of our study region (San Lorenzo River Basin, Lower Pajaro River Basin). This presentation focuses on mid-Santa Cruz County, including the Soquel-Aptos Groundwater Basin. The DSS uses a geographic information system to compile and merge data from numerous local, state, and federal sources to identify locations on the landscape where DSC-MAR may be most suitable. This requires classification of disparate data types so that they can be combined. Stormwater runoff for individual river basins in the study region was simulated using historical streamflow data for calibration and validation. Both analyses were completed with relatively fine resolution, from 10 m2 pixels for elevation to 0.1-1.0 km hydrologic response units for properties such as soil and vegetation properties. Future climate is uncertain, so we used historical data to create a catalog of dry, normal, and wet hydrologic conditions, then created synthetic future climate scenarios for simulation. The DDS shows that there are numerous regions in mid-Santa Cruz County where there is a confluence of MAR suitability and the generation of stormwater runoff that could supply recharge projects (with a nominal target of 100 ac-ft/yr of infiltration), even under dry climate scenarios, and allows us to assess the potential benefits to be derived from a implementation of DSC-MAR projects in strategic locations. The tools and methods developed with this DDS should be broadly applicable to other basins.

A laboratory experiment simulating the dynamics of topographic relief: methodology and results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crave, A.; Lague, D.; Davy, P.; Bonnet, S.; Laguionie, P.

2002-12-01

Theoretical analysis and numerical models of landscape evolution have advanced several scenarios for the long-term evolution of terrestrial topography. These scenarios require quantitative evaluation. Analyses of topography, sediment fluxes, and the physical mechanisms of erosion and sediment transport can provide some constraints on the range of plausible models. But in natural systems the boundary conditions (tectonic uplift, climate, base level) are often not well constrained and the spatial heterogeneity of substrate, climate, vegetation, and prevalent processes commonly confounds attempts at extrapolation of observations to longer timescales. In the laboratory, boundary conditions are known and heterogeneity and complexity can be controlled. An experimental approach can thus provide valuable constraints on the dynamics of geomorphic systems, provided that (1) the elementary processes are well calibrated and (2) the topography and sediment fluxes are sufficiently well documented. We have built an experimental setup of decimeter scale that is designed to develop a complete drainage network by the growth and propagation of erosion instabilities in response to tectonic and climatic perturbations. Uplift and precipitation rates can be changed over an order of magnitude. Telemetric lasers and 3D stereo-photography allow the precise quantification of the topographic evolution of the experimental surface. In order to calibrate the principal processes of erosion and transport we have used three approaches: (1) theoretical derivation of erosion laws deduced from the geometrical properties of experimental surfaces at steady-state under different rates of tectonic uplift; (2) comparison of the experimental transient dynamics with a numerical simulation model to test the validity of the predicted erosion laws; and (3) detailed analysis of particle detachment and transport in a millimeter sheet flow on a two-meter long flume under precisely controlled water discharge, slope and flow width. The analogy with real geomorphic systems is limited by the imperfect downscaling in both time and space of the experiments. However, these simple experiments have allowed us to probe (1) the importance of a threshold for particle mobilization to the relationship between steady-state elevation and uplift rate, (2) the role of initial drainage network organization in the transient dynamics of tectonically perturbed systems and (3) the sediment flux dynamics of climatically perturbed systems.

Empirical evidence of climate's role in Rocky Mountain landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riihimaki, Catherine A.; Reiners, Peter W.

2012-06-01

Climate may be the dominant factor affecting landscape evolution during the late Cenozoic, but models that connect climate and landscape evolution cannot be tested without precise ages of landforms. Zircon (U-Th)/He ages of clinker, metamorphosed rock formed by burning of underlying coal seams, provide constraints on the spatial and temporal patterns of Quaternary erosion in the Powder River basin of Wyoming and Montana. The age distribution of 86 sites shows two temporal patterns: (1) a bias toward younger ages because of erosion of older clinker and (2) periodic occurrence of coal fires likely corresponding with particular climatic regimes. Statistical t tests of the ages and spectral analyses of the age probability density function indicate that these episodes of frequent coal fires most likely correspond with times of high eccentricity in Earth's orbit, possibly driven by increased seasonality in the region causing increased erosion rates and coal exhumation. Correlation of ages with interglacial time periods is weaker. The correlations between climate and coal fires improve when only samples greater than 50 km from the front of the Bighorn Range, the site of the nearest alpine glaciation, are compared. Together, these results indicate that the interaction between upstream glaciation and downstream erosion is likely not the dominant control on Quaternary landscape evolution in the Powder River basin, particularly since 0.5 Ma. Instead, incision rates are likely controlled by the response of streams to climate shifts within the basin itself, possibly changes in local precipitation rates or frequency-magnitude distributions, with no discernable lag time between climate changes and landscape responses. Clinker ages are consistent with numerical models in which stream erosion is driven by fluctuations in stream power on thousand year timescales within the basins, possibly as a result of changing precipitation patterns, and is driven by regional rock uplift on million year timescales.

Holocene climate variability in arid Central Asia as revealed from high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical analyses of laminated sediments from Lake Chatyr Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, S.; Plessen, B.; Dulski, P.; Mingram, J.; Prasad, S.

2013-12-01

A pronounced trend from a predominantly wet climate during the early Holocene towards significantly drier conditions since the mid-Holocene, mainly attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, climate in the adjacent regions of mid-latitude arid Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is supposed to have been characterized by pronounced dry conditions during the early Holocene, wet conditions during the mid-Holocene and a rather moderate drying during the late Holocene, which is mainly attributed to the complex interplay between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. However, although mid-latitude Central Asia thus might represent a key region for the understanding of teleconnections between the ASM system and the Westerlies, knowledge about past climate development in this region is still ambiguous due to the limited number of high-resolution palaeoclimate records. Hence, new well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from this region are expected to provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, a sediment core of about 6.25 m length has been recovered from alpine Lake Chatyr Kol (40°36' N, 75°14' E, 3530 m a. s. l., surface area ~170 km2, maximum depth ~20 m), located in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. Sediment microfacies analysis on large-scale petrographic thin sections reveals continuously sub-mm scale laminated sediments throughout the record except for the uppermost ca. 60 cm. Microsedimentological characterization of these laminae, which are most probably of annual origin, is still in progress but according to first radiocarbon dates and laminae countings, the sediment record covers at least the last 10 000 years, thus representing a unique palaeoclimate archive from this region. In addition, first results of geochemical (μXRF, TOC, TIC) and isotopic (δ15N, δ13Corg) analyses indicate significant shifts parallel to changes in sediment microfacies around 8000-9000 and around 2000-3000 cal. a BP, most probably reflecting regional palaeoclimatic and environmental changes, but further work is necessary to fully explore the potential of this exceptional lake sediment record.

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models.

PubMed

Lovejoy, S; de Lima, M I P

2015-07-01

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30-100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate "macroweather" regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be "homogenized" by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.

Climate Prediction for Brazil's Nordeste: Performance of Empirical and Numerical Modeling Methods.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Antonio Divino; Hastenrath, Stefan

2004-07-01

Comparisons of performance of climate forecast methods require consistency in the predictand and a long common reference period. For Brazil's Nordeste, empirical methods developed at the University of Wisconsin use preseason (October January) rainfall and January indices of the fields of meridional wind component and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific as input to stepwise multiple regression and neural networking. These are used to predict the March June rainfall at a network of 27 stations. An experiment at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Columbia University, with a numerical model (ECHAM4.5) used global SST information through February to predict the March June rainfall at three grid points in the Nordeste. The predictands for the empirical and numerical model forecasts are correlated at +0.96, and the period common to the independent portion of record of the empirical prediction and the numerical modeling is 1968 99. Over this period, predicted versus observed rainfall are evaluated in terms of correlation, root-mean-square error, absolute error, and bias. Performance is high for both approaches. Numerical modeling produces a correlation of +0.68, moderate errors, and strong negative bias. For the empirical methods, errors and bias are small, and correlations of +0.73 and +0.82 are reached between predicted and observed rainfall.

Estimating the Numerical Diapycnal Mixing in the GO5.0 Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Megann, A.; Nurser, G.

2014-12-01

Constant-depth (or "z-coordinate") ocean models such as MOM4 and NEMO have become the de facto workhorse in climate applications, and have attained a mature stage in their development and are well understood. A generic shortcoming of this model type, however, is a tendency for the advection scheme to produce unphysical numerical diapycnal mixing, which in some cases may exceed the explicitly parameterised mixing based on observed physical processes, and this is likely to have effects on the long-timescale evolution of the simulated climate system. Despite this, few quantitative estimations have been made of the magnitude of the effective diapycnal diffusivity due to numerical mixing in these models. GO5.0 is the latest ocean model configuration developed jointly by the UK Met Office and the National Oceanography Centre (Megann et al, 2014), and forms part of the GC1 and GC2 climate models. It uses version 3.4 of the NEMO model, on the ORCA025 ¼° global tripolar grid. We describe various approaches to quantifying the numerical diapycnal mixing in this model, and present results from analysis of the GO5.0 model based on the isopycnal watermass analysis of Lee et al (2002) that indicate that numerical mixing does indeed form a significant component of the watermass transformation in the ocean interior.

CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK (CCRAF)

EPA Science Inventory

Development of a numerical framework that integrates socio-economic and physical drivers of greenhouse gas emissions, related climate changes and risks and benefits of alternative responses to perceived change or risks. The project integrates and extends existing peer-reviewed m...

Rapid Late Holocene glacier fluctuations reconstructed from South Georgia lake sediments using novel analytical and numerical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; Bakke, Jostein; Werner, Johannes; Paasche, Øyvind; Rosqvist, Gunhild

2016-04-01

The collapse of ice shelves, rapidly retreating glaciers and a dramatic recent temperature increase show that Southern Ocean climate is rapidly shifting. Also, instrumental and modelling data demonstrate transient interactions between oceanic and atmospheric forcings as well as climatic teleconnections with lower-latitude regions. Yet beyond the instrumental period, a lack of proxy climate timeseries impedes our understanding of Southern Ocean climate. Also, available records often lack the resolution and chronological control required to resolve rapid climate shifts like those observed at present. Alpine glaciers are found on most Southern Ocean islands and quickly respond to shifts in climate through changes in mass balance. Attendant changes in glacier size drive variations in the production of rock flour, the suspended product of glacial erosion. This climate response may be captured by downstream distal glacier-fed lakes, continuously recording glacier history. Sediment records from such lakes are considered prime sources for paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we present the first reconstruction of Late Holocene glacier variability from the island of South Georgia. Using a toolbox of advanced physical, geochemical (XRF) and magnetic proxies, in combination with state-of-the-art numerical techniques, we fingerprinted a glacier signal from glacier-fed lake sediments. This lacustrine sediment signal was subsequently calibrated against mapped glacier extent with the help of geomorphological moraine evidence and remote sensing techniques. The outlined approach enabled us to robustly resolve variations of a complex glacier at sub-centennial timescales, while constraining the sedimentological imprint of other geomorphic catchment processes. From a paleoclimate perspective, our reconstruction reveals a dynamic Late Holocene climate, modulated by long-term shifts in regional circulation patterns. We also find evidence for rapid medieval glacier retreat as well as a synchronous bi-polar Little Ice Age (LIA). In conclusion, our work shows the potential of novel analytical and numerical tools to improve the robustness and resolution of lake sediment-based paleoclimate reconstructions beyond the current state-of-the-art.

A novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China

PubMed Central

Yang, Yanzheng; Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Wang, Han; Xue, Wei; Lin, Guanghui; Wen, Zhongming; Chang, Jie; Wang, Meng; Liu, Guobin; Li, Shiqing

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that current dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have suffered from insufficient realism and are difficult to improve, particularly because they are built on plant functional type (PFT) schemes. Therefore, new approaches, such as plant trait-based methods, are urgently needed to replace PFT schemes when predicting the distribution of vegetation and investigating vegetation sensitivity. As an important direction towards constructing next-generation DGVMs based on plant functional traits, we propose a novel approach for modelling vegetation distributions and analysing vegetation sensitivity through trait-climate relationships in China. The results demonstrated that a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) trained with a LMA-Nmass-LAI data combination yielded an accuracy of 72.82% in simulating vegetation distribution, providing more detailed parameter information regarding community structures and ecosystem functions. The new approach also performed well in analyses of vegetation sensitivity to different climatic scenarios. Although the trait-climate relationship is not the only candidate useful for predicting vegetation distributions and analysing climatic sensitivity, it sheds new light on the development of next-generation trait-based DGVMs. PMID:27052108

Changing climate and the value of the tea landscape in Assam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biggs, E. M.; Gupta, N.; Duncan, J.; Saikia, S. D.

2015-12-01

Tea production has a measurable impact upon millions of people's livelihoods in northeast India. The region is experiencing changes in climate characteristics which are placing added pressure on the tea industry for sustaining livelihoods. To increase understanding of the role of tea within the Assam landscape, this research has engaged with multiple local tea-producing stakeholders. Approximately 65% of Assam's tea is produced in large plantations, with the remaining 35% produced in smallholdings. Questionnaires were used to obtain information on land management practices operationalised by plantation managers and smallholders. Focus group sessions using the Delphi technique were conducted with tea workers (labourers for the plantations) to ascertain the level of importance of the tea sector to sustaining their livelihoods. Questionnaires and focus group surveys also attempted to establish stakeholder understanding of climate change. Data were analysed using spatial statistics to investigate intra- and inter-region variation in responses. Focus group responses were categorised to determine the livelihood asset base available to tea workers within plantations, with patterns of (dis)similarity observed spatially. Results indicate that land management practices (e.g. fertiliser and pesticide application), tea processing methods (e.g. onsite factory and energy generation), and social provisions for tea workers (e.g. sanitation and education facilities) varied greatly across the main tea growing regions of Assam. Tea workers listed numerous environmental and social factors as important for sustaining livelihoods, with the top ranked factors similar across some plantations (e.g. drinking water availability and access). Plantation managers are highly concerned with how climate conditions are affecting tea production, and although workers were aware of climate change issues in some plantations, socioeconomic conditions seemed of more pressing concern to their livelihoods.

Building the framework for climate change adaptation in the urban areas using participatory approach: the Czech Republic experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam; Hubatová, Marie; Lupač, Miroslav; Pondělíček, Michael; Šafařík, Miroslav; Šilhánková, Vladimíra; Vačkář, David

2016-04-01

The Czech Republic has experienced numerous extreme hydrometeorological / climatological events such as floods (significant ones in 1997, 2002, 2010, 2013), droughts (2013, 2015), heat waves (2015) and windstorms (2007) during past decades. These events are generally attributed to the ongoing climate change and caused loss of lives and significant material damages (up to several % of GDP in some years), especially in urban areas. To initiate the adaptation process of urban areas, the main objective was to prepare a framework for creating climate change adaptation strategies of individual cities reflecting physical-geographical and socioeconomical conditions of the Czech Republic. Three pilot cities (Hradec Králové, Žďár nad Sázavou, Dobru\\vska) were used to optimize entire procedure. Two sets of participatory seminars were organised in order to involve all key stakeholders (the city council, department of the environment, department of the crisis management, hydrometeorological institute, local experts, ...) into the process of creation of the adaptation strategy from its early stage. Lesson learned for the framework were related especially to its applicability on a local level, which is largely a matter of the understandability of the concept. Finally, this illustrative and widely applicable framework (so called 'road map to adaptation strategy') includes five steps: (i) analysis of existing strategies and plans on national, regional and local levels; (ii) analysing climate-change related hazards and key vulnerabilities; (iii) identification of adaptation needs, evaluation of existing adaptation capacity and formulation of future adaptation priorities; (iv) identification of limits and barriers for the adaptation (economical, environmental, ...); and (v) selection of specific types of adaptation measures reflecting identified adaptation needs and formulated adaptation priorities. Keywords: climate change adaptation (CCA); urban areas; participatory approach; road map

The atmospheric boundary layer — advances in knowledge and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Hess, G. D.; Physick, W. L.; Bougeault, P.

1996-02-01

We summarise major activities and advances in boundary-layer knowledge in the 25 years since 1970, with emphasis on the application of this knowledge to surface and boundary-layer parametrisation schemes in numerical models of the atmosphere. Progress in three areas is discussed: (i) the mesoscale modelling of selected phenomena; (ii) numerical weather prediction; and (iii) climate simulations. Future trends are identified, including the incorporation into models of advanced cloud schemes and interactive canopy schemes, and the nesting of high resolution boundary-layer schemes in global climate models.

Impact of climate variations on Managed Aquifer Recharge infiltration basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barquero, Felix; Stefan, Catalin

2017-04-01

KEYWORDS: Managed Aquifer Recharge, field scale infiltration unit, climatic conditions, numerical model Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a technique that is gaining more attention as a sustainable alternative for areas where water scarcity is increasing. Main concept relies on facilitating the vertical infiltration of a source of fresh water (river water, rainwater, reclaimed water, etc). The groundwater acts as storage of water for further use in the future, for example in times of water scarcity. In some MAR types the soil itself can be used even as a filter for the removal of specific organic and inorganic compounds. In order to promote the benefits of MAR in different zones of the globe with variable climate conditions, including the effects of climate change, a numerical model (HYDRUS 2D/3D) is being set up. Coupled with the model a field-scale rapid infiltration unit (4m x 5m x 1.5m) was constructed with the capacity to log different MAR key parameters in the soil (tension, water content, temperature and electrical conductivity) in space and time. These data will feed the model for its calibration using specific hydrogeological characteristics of the packing material and hydraulic characteristics of the infiltrated fluid. The unit is located in the city of Pirna (German), 200 m north from the Elbe River where the groundwater level varies seasonally between 6 and 9 m below the ground surface. Together with the field scale rapid infiltration unit, a set of multi-parametric sensors (measuring in time: water stage, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and temperature) in six monitoring wells, located on the basin surroundings, were installed. The purpose of these sensors is to estimate, via tracer experiments, the time that the infiltrated water needed to reach the groundwater and the flow speed in which it travelled once it reached the saturated zone. Once calibrated, the model will be able to estimate the flow behaviour under variable climate conditions (temperature, precipitation and evaporation), representative for different climatic zones in the globe. The simulation results of the different climate models reported by the IPCC will also be considered for critical zones where fresh water availability will decrease considerably. In the field, the first results confirmed the arrival, after 14 days of travel time, of the infiltrated river water front to the monitoring wells located next to the infiltration unit. Further tracer experiments have to be performed in order to catch a stronger breakthrough curve in more than one observation point. Interesting open questions arise from the data stored in the trench sensors. How the change of the travel velocity depends on different external parameters like time of operation, cyclic wetting and drying regime and temperature, will be analysed together with the results of the ongoing experiments.

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Deciphering the Tectonic History of the Northern Transantarctic Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Samantha; Graw, Jordan; Brenn, Gregory; Kenyon, Lindsey; Park, Yongcheol; DuBay, Brian

2016-04-01

The Transantarctic Mountains (TAMs) are the largest non-compressional mountain range in the world, and their structure plays a key role in the climatic and tectonic development of Antarctica. While numerous uplift mechanisms for the TAMs have been proposed, there is little consensus on their origin. Over the past three years, we have operated a network of 15 broadband seismic stations within a previously unexplored portion of the northern TAMs. Using data collected by this array, we have undertaken numerous studies to further assess the crustal and lithospheric structure beneath the mountain range and to differentiate between competing origin models. Receiver functions indicate crustal thickening inland from the Ross Sea coast but comparable crustal thickness beneath the TAMs and the East Antarctic plateau, indicating little evidence for a substantial crustal root beneath the mountain range. Body and surface wave analyses show a pronounced low-velocity anomaly beneath Terror Rift, adjacent to the TAMs, and extending beneath Victoria Land in the upper mantle. Together, these findings support a thermally-buoyant source of uplift for the northern TAMs and broad flexure of the East Antarctic lithosphere.

Genetic signatures of adaptation revealed from transcriptome sequencing of Arctic and red foxes.

PubMed

Kumar, Vikas; Kutschera, Verena E; Nilsson, Maria A; Janke, Axel

2015-08-07

The genus Vulpes (true foxes) comprises numerous species that inhabit a wide range of habitats and climatic conditions, including one species, the Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) which is adapted to the arctic region. A close relative to the Arctic fox, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), occurs in subarctic to subtropical habitats. To study the genetic basis of their adaptations to different environments, transcriptome sequences from two Arctic foxes and one red fox individual were generated and analyzed for signatures of positive selection. In addition, the data allowed for a phylogenetic analysis and divergence time estimate between the two fox species. The de novo assembly of reads resulted in more than 160,000 contigs/transcripts per individual. Approximately 17,000 homologous genes were identified using human and the non-redundant databases. Positive selection analyses revealed several genes involved in various metabolic and molecular processes such as energy metabolism, cardiac gene regulation, apoptosis and blood coagulation to be under positive selection in foxes. Branch site tests identified four genes to be under positive selection in the Arctic fox transcriptome, two of which are fat metabolism genes. In the red fox transcriptome eight genes are under positive selection, including molecular process genes, notably genes involved in ATP metabolism. Analysis of the three transcriptomes and five Sanger re-sequenced genes in additional individuals identified a lower genetic variability within Arctic foxes compared to red foxes, which is consistent with distribution range differences and demographic responses to past climatic fluctuations. A phylogenomic analysis estimated that the Arctic and red fox lineages diverged about three million years ago. Transcriptome data are an economic way to generate genomic resources for evolutionary studies. Despite not representing an entire genome, this transcriptome analysis identified numerous genes that are relevant to arctic adaptation in foxes. Similar to polar bears, fat metabolism seems to play a central role in adaptation of Arctic foxes to the cold climate, as has been identified in the polar bear, another arctic specialist.

Retrieval of temperature profiles from CHAMP for climate monitoring: intercomparison with Envisat MIPAS and GOMOS and different atmospheric analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, A.; Kirchengast, G.; Manney, G. L.; Borsche, M.; Retscher, C.; Stiller, G.

2007-02-01

This study describes and evaluates a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) retrieval scheme particularly aimed at delivering bias-free atmospheric parameters for climate monitoring and research. The focus of the retrieval is on the sensible use of a priori information for careful high-altitude initialisation in order to maximise the usable altitude range. The RO retrieval scheme has been meanwhile applied to more than five years of data (September 2001 to November 2006) from the German CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) satellite. In this study it was validated against various correlative datasets including the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Global Ozone Monitoring for Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) sensors on Envisat, five different atmospheric analyses, and the operational CHAMP retrieval product from GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam. In the global mean within 10 to 30 km altitude we find that the present validation observationally constrains the potential RO temperature bias to be <0.2 K. Latitudinally resolved analyses show biases to be observationally constrained to <0.2-0.5 K up to 35 km in most cases, and up to 30 km in any case, even if severely biased (about 10 K or more) a priori information is used in the high altitude initialisation of the retrieval. No evidence is found for the 10-35 km altitude range of RO bias sources other than those potentially propagated downward from initialisation, indicating that the widely quoted RO promise of "unbiasedness and long-term stability due to intrinsic self-calibration" can indeed be realized given care in the data processing to strictly limit structural uncertainty. The results demonstrate that an adequate high-altitude initialisation technique is crucial for accurate stratospheric RO retrievals and that still common methods of initialising the involved hydrostatic integral with an upper boundary temperature or pressure value derived from meteorological analyses is prone to introduce biases from the initialisation data to the retrieved temperatures down to below 25 km. Above 30 to 35 km, GNSS RO delivers a considerable amount of observed information up to around 40 km, which is particularly interesting for numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, where direct assimilation of non-initialized (a priori-free) observed RO bending angles is thus the method of choice. The results underline the value of RO for climate applications.

Retrieval of temperature profiles from CHAMP for climate monitoring: intercomparison with Envisat MIPAS and GOMOS and different atmospheric analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobiet, A.; Kirchengast, G.; Manney, G. L.; Borsche, M.; Retscher, C.; Stiller, G.

2007-07-01

This study describes and evaluates a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) retrieval scheme particularly aimed at delivering bias-free atmospheric parameters for climate monitoring and research. The focus of the retrieval is on the sensible use of a priori information for careful high-altitude initialisation in order to maximise the usable altitude range. The RO retrieval scheme has been meanwhile applied to more than five years of data (September 2001 to present) from the German CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) satellite. In this study it was validated against various correlative datasets including the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Global Ozone Monitoring for Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) sensors on Envisat, five different atmospheric analyses, and the operational CHAMP retrieval product from GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam. In the global mean within 10 to 30 km altitude we find that the present validation observationally constrains the potential RO temperature bias to be <0.2 K. Latitudinally resolved analyses show biases to be observationally constrained to <0.2-0.5 K up to 35 km in most cases, and up to 30 km in any case, even if severely biased (about 10 K or more) a priori information is used in the high altitude initialisation of the retrieval. No evidence is found for the 10-35 km altitude range of residual RO bias sources other than those potentially propagated downward from initialisation, indicating that the widely quoted RO promise of "unbiasedness and long-term stability due to intrinsic self-calibration" can indeed be realised given care in the data processing to strictly limit structural uncertainty. The results thus reinforce that adequate high-altitude initialisation is crucial for accurate stratospheric RO retrievals. The common method of initialising, at some altitude in the upper stratosphere, the hydrostatic integral with an upper boundary temperature or pressure value derived from meteorological analyses is prone to introduce biases from the upper boundary down to below 25 km. Also above 30 to 35 km, GNSS RO delivers a considerable amount of observed information up to around 40 km, which is particularly interesting for numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, where direct assimilation of non-initialised observed RO bending angles (free of a priori) is thus the method of choice. The results underline the value of RO for climate applications.

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-01

life by preventing the formation of shells and skeletons of some very numerous and important zoo- plankton [48]. Coral reefs are particularly...http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html 48. James C. Orr, Scott Doney, et al. 2005. Anthropogenic Ocean Acidification Over the...National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provided many valuable insights into climate science and reviewed our draft report. Dr. Robert Frosch

Western Africa to c/1860 A.D.: A Provisional Historical Schema Based on Climate Periods. Indiana University African Studies Program Working Papers Series, No. 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brooks, George E.

An examination of historical developments in western Africa during six climate periods extending over two millennia, this study demonstrates that numerous historical developments correlate with climate periods and/or were influenced by changes in rainfall patterns and ecological conditions. These include such diverse topics as the diffusion of…

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

1994-01-01

Because of the greenhouse effect, projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climate change; and presents the results of sensitivity analyses of how climate change might affect water resources in the Delaware River basin. Sensitivity analyses suggest that potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some scenarios for climate change come true . The results of model simulations of the basin streamflow demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing the effects that climate change versus natural climate variability have on streamflow and water supply . The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be precisely determined because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation . This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant . The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans for evaluating and responding to changes, should they occur.

The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lovejoy, S., E-mail: lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca; Lima, M. I. P. de; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra

2015-07-15

Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spitemore » of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.« less

WRF-Hydro Simulated Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Streamflow Extremes over the CONUS during 1993-2016 and Possible Connections with Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dugger, A. L.; Zhang, Y.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; McCreight, J. L.; Karsten, L.; Rafieeinasab, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Salas, F.; Read, L.; Pan, L.; Yates, D. N.; Cosgrove, B.; Clark, E. P.

2017-12-01

Streamflow extremes (lows and peaks) tend to have disproportionately higher impacts on the human and natural systems compared to mean streamflow. Examining and understanding the spatiotemporal distributions of streamflow extremes is of significant interests to both the research community and the water resources management. In this work, the output from the 24-year (1993 through 2016) retrospective runs of the National Water Model (NWM) version of WRF-Hydro will be analyzed for streamflow extremes over the CONUS domain. The CONUS domain was configured at 1-km resolution for land surface grid and 250-m resolution for terrain routing. The WRF-Hydro runs were forced by the regridded and downscaled NLDAS2 data. The analyses focus on daily mean streamflow values over the full water year and within the summer and winter seasons. Connections between NWM streamflow and other hydrologic variables (e.g. snowpack, soil moisture/saturation and ET) with variations in large-scale climate phenomena, e.g., El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and North American monsoon are examined. The CONUS domain has a diverse environment and is characterized by complex terrain, heterogeneous land surfaces and ecosystems, and numerous hydrological basins. The potential dependence of streamflow extremes on regional terrain character, climatic conditions, and ecologic zones will also be investigated.

Le Climat d'Apprentissage; Analyse Conceptuelle=Learning Climate: A Conceptual Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michaud, Pierre; And Others

1989-01-01

Analyzes and defines the concept of "learning climate." Discusses the conceptual models of Biddle and Brookover. Considers the use of observation techniques and surveys to measure learning climate. Reviews research on the relationship between learning climate and the attainment of course and institutional objectives. (DMM)

CPC - Monitoring & Data: Regional Climate Maps

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Information CPC Web Team HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are usually

Abrupt sand-dune accumulation at the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau challenges the wet MIS3a inferred from numerous lake-highstands

PubMed Central

Long, Hao; Fuchs, Markus; Yang, Linhai; Cheng, Hongyi

2016-01-01

Over the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions, numerous 14C-based lake records revealed a ubiquitous wet climatic period during 40–25 ka (late MIS 3), which is in contradiction with the global pattern of generally cold and dry climates. This paper focuses on OSL dating results of a large set of sand dunes and alluvial sediments (50 OSL ages) from the Qinwangchuan (QWC) Basin at the northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau, with the aim to test the validity of the anomalous wet condition for the late MIS 3 interval, evidenced by numerous lake highstands. The abrupt sand dune accumulation as indication of increased aridity in the study area was OSL dated to ~40–13 ka. This dry climatic inference of the sand dune system from QWC apparently shows no wet MIS 3a event. Thus, the anomalous wet conditions revealed by high lake levels for the late MIS 3 phase may not be a universal phenomena across entire western China. PMID:27172907

Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Consumption and Peak Demand in Buildings: A Detailed Regional Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dirks, James A.; Gorrissen, Willy J.; Hathaway, John E.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the results of numerous commercial and residential building simulations, with the purpose of examining the impact of climate change on peak and annual building energy consumption over the portion of the Eastern Interconnection (EIC) located in the United States. The climate change scenario considered (IPCC A2 scenario as downscaled from the CASCaDE data set) has changes in mean climate characteristics as well as changes in the frequency and duration of intense weather events. This investigation examines building energy demand for three annual periods representative of climate trends in the CASCaDE data set at the beginning, middle, andmore » end of the century--2004, 2052, and 2089. Simulations were performed using the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model which is a detailed simulation platform built around EnergyPlus. BEND was developed in collaboration with the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA), a modeling framework designed to simulate the complex interactions among climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant spatial scales. Over 26,000 building configurations of different types, sizes, vintages, and, characteristics which represent the population of buildings within the EIC, are modeled across the 3 EIC time zones using the future climate from 100 locations within the target region, resulting in nearly 180,000 spatially relevant simulated demand profiles for each of the 3 years. In this study, the building stock characteristics are held constant based on the 2005 building stock in order to isolate and present results that highlight the impact of the climate signal on commercial and residential energy demand. Results of this analysis compare well with other analyses at their finest level of specificity. This approach, however, provides a heretofore unprecedented level of specificity across multiple spectrums including spatial, temporal, and building characteristics. This capability enables the ability to perform detailed hourly impact studies of building adaptation and mitigation strategies on energy use and electricity peak demand within the context of the entire grid and economy.« less

Formation of Valley Networks in a Cold and Icy Early Mars Climate: Predictions for Erosion Rates and Channel Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cassanelli, J.

2017-12-01

Mars is host to a diverse array of valley networks, systems of linear-to-sinuous depressions which are widely distributed across the surface and which exhibit branching patterns similar to the dendritic drainage patterns of terrestrial fluvial systems. Characteristics of the valley networks are indicative of an origin by fluvial activity, providing among the most compelling evidence for the past presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars. Stratigraphic and crater age dating techniques suggest that the formation of the valley networks occurred predominantly during the early geologic history of Mars ( 3.7 Ga). However, whether the valley networks formed predominantly by rainfall in a relatively warm and wet early Mars climate, or by snowmelt and episodic rainfall in an ambient cold and icy climate, remains disputed. Understanding the formative environment of the valley networks will help distinguish between these warm and cold end-member early Mars climate models. Here we test a conceptual model for channel incision and evolution under cold and icy conditions with a substrate characterized by the presence of an ice-free dry active layer and subjacent ice-cemented regolith, similar to that found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. We implement numerical thermal models, quantitative erosion and transport estimates, and morphometric analyses in order to outline predictions for (1) the precise nature and structure of the substrate, (2) fluvial erosion/incision rates, and (3) channel morphology. Model predictions are compared against morphologic and morphometric observational data to evaluate consistency with the assumed cold climate scenario. In the cold climate scenario, the substrate is predicted to be characterized by a kilometers-thick globally-continuous cryosphere below a 50-100 meter thick desiccated ice-free zone. Initial results suggest that, with the predicted substrate structure, fluvial channel erosion and morphology in a cold early Mars climate exposed to episodic high temperatures will not differ significantly from that in a warm climate. The fundamentally different hydrologic conditions are likely to influence other aspects of valley network morphology and morphometry including: drainage density, drainage pattern, and stream orders.

The Potential for Snow to Supply Human Water Demand in the Present and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mankin, Justin S.; Viviroli, Daniel; Singh, Deepti; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2015-01-01

Runoff from snowmelt is regarded as a vital water source for people and ecosystems throughout the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Numerous studies point to the threat global warming poses to the timing and magnitude of snow accumulation and melt. But analyses focused on snow supply do not show where changes to snowmelt runoff are likely to present the most pressing adaptation challenges, given sub-annual patterns of human water consumption and water availability from rainfall. We identify the NH basins where present spring and summer snowmelt has the greatest potential to supply the human water demand that would otherwise be unmet by instantaneous rainfall runoff. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections, we find that these basins - which together have a present population of approx. 2 billion people - are exposed to a 67% risk of decreased snow supply this coming century. Further, in the multi-model mean, 68 basins (with a present population of more than 300 million people) transition from having sufficient rainfall runoff to meet all present human water demand to having insufficient rainfall runoff. However, internal climate variability creates irreducible uncertainty in the projected future trends in snow resource potential, with about 90% of snow-sensitive basins showing potential for either increases or decreases over the near-term decades. Our results emphasize the importance of snow for fulfilling human water demand in many NH basins, and highlight the need to account for the full range of internal climate variability in developing robust climate risk management decisions.

Relationships between bullying, school climate, and student risk behaviors.

PubMed

Klein, Jennifer; Cornell, Dewey; Konold, Timothy

2012-09-01

This study examined whether characteristics of a positive school climate were associated with lower student risk behavior in a sample of 3,687 high school students who completed the School Climate Bullying Survey and questions about risk behavior from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS). Confirmatory factor analyses established fit for 20 items with three hypothesized school climate scales measuring (1) prevalence of bullying and teasing; (2) aggressive attitudes; and (3) student willingness to seek help. Structural equation modeling established the relationship of these measures with student reports of risk behavior. Multigroup analyses identified differential effects across gender and race. A positive school climate could be an important protective factor in preventing student risk behavior.

Numerical modeling and experimental investigation of the local hydrology of a porous concrete site.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-10-01

Although porous pavement use has been accepted as a successful stormwater management practice in warm climates, application in regions with colder climates, like New England, is still under investigation. The Randolph Park and Ride Site, which is the...

Climatic Forecasting of Net Infiltration at Yucca Montain Using Analogue Meteororological Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

B. Faybishenko

At Yucca Mountain, Nevada, future changes in climatic conditions will most likely alter net infiltration, or the drainage below the bottom of the evapotranspiration zone within the soil profile or flow across the interface between soil and the densely welded part of the Tiva Canyon Tuff. The objectives of this paper are to: (a) develop a semi-empirical model and forecast average net infiltration rates, using the limited meteorological data from analogue meteorological stations, for interglacial (present day), and future monsoon, glacial transition, and glacial climates over the Yucca Mountain region, and (b) corroborate the computed net-infiltration rates by comparing themmore » with the empirically and numerically determined groundwater recharge and percolation rates through the unsaturated zone from published data. In this paper, the author presents an approach for calculations of net infiltration, aridity, and precipitation-effectiveness indices, using a modified Budyko's water-balance model, with reference-surface potential evapotranspiration determined from the radiation-based Penman (1948) formula. Results of calculations show that net infiltration rates are expected to generally increase from the present-day climate to monsoon climate, to glacial transition climate, and then to the glacial climate. The forecasting results indicate the overlap between the ranges of net infiltration for different climates. For example, the mean glacial net-infiltration rate corresponds to the upper-bound glacial transition net infiltration, and the lower-bound glacial net infiltration corresponds to the glacial transition mean net infiltration. Forecasting of net infiltration for different climate states is subject to numerous uncertainties-associated with selecting climate analogue sites, using relatively short analogue meteorological records, neglecting the effects of vegetation and surface runoff and runon on a local scale, as well as possible anthropogenic climate changes.« less

Broad-Scale Patterns of Late Jurassic Dinosaur Paleoecology

PubMed Central

Noto, Christopher R.; Grossman, Ari

2010-01-01

Background There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure. Methodology/Principal Findings This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident. Conclusions/Significance This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance. PMID:20838442

Insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States—A regional synthesis to support biodiversity conservation in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Wolfe, William J.

2016-08-11

In the southeastern United States, insular ecosystems—such as rock outcrops, depression wetlands, high-elevation balds, flood-scoured riparian corridors, and insular prairies and barrens—occupy a small fraction of land area but constitute an important source of regional and global biodiversity, including concentrations of rare and endemic plant taxa. Maintenance of this biodiversity depends upon regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, incorporating factors such as soil surface temperature, widely fluctuating hydrologic conditions, fires, flood scouring, and episodic droughts that may be subject to alteration by climate change. Over several decades, numerous localized, site-level investigations have yielded important information about the floristics, physical environments, and ecological dynamics of these insular ecosystems; however, the literature from these investigations has generally remained fragmented. This report consists of literature syntheses for eight categories of insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States, concerning (1) physical geography, (2) ecological determinants of community structures including vegetation dynamics and regimes of abiotic stress and disturbance, (3) contributions to regional and global biodiversity, (4) historical and current anthropogenic threats and conservation approaches, and (5) key knowledge gaps relevant to conservation, particularly in terms of climate-change effects on biodiversity. This regional synthesis was undertaken to discern patterns across ecosystems, identify knowledge gaps, and lay the groundwork for future analyses of climate-change vulnerability. Findings from this synthesis indicate that, despite their importance to regional and global biodiversity, insular ecosystems of the southeastern United States have been subjected to a variety of direct and indirect human alterations. In many cases, important questions remain concerning key determinants of ecosystem function. In particular, few empirical investigations in these ecosystems have focused on possible climate-change effects, despite the well-documented ecological effects of climate change at a global level. Long-term management of these ecosystems could benefit from increased scientific effort to characterize and quantify the linkages between changing environmental conditions and the ecological processes that sustain biodiversity.

Broad-scale patterns of late jurassic dinosaur paleoecology.

PubMed

Noto, Christopher R; Grossman, Ari

2010-09-03

There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure. This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident. This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance.

Mid- to Late Holocene climate development in Central Asia as revealed from multi-proxy analyses of sediments from Lake Son Kol (Kyrgyzstan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lauterbach, Stefan; Dulski, Peter; Gleixner, Gerd; Hettler-Riedel, Sabine; Mingram, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Prasad, Sushma; Schwalb, Antje; Schwarz, Anja; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman

2013-04-01

A mid-Holocene shift from predominantly wet to significantly drier climate conditions, attributed to the weakening of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), is documented in numerous palaeoclimate records from the monsoon-influenced parts of Asia, e.g. the Tibetan Plateau and north- and southeastern China. In contrast, Holocene climate development in the arid regions of mid-latitude Central Asia, located north and northwest of the Tibetan Plateau, is less well-constrained but supposed to have been influenced by a complex interaction between the mid-latitude Westerlies and the ASM. Hence, well-dated and highly resolved palaeoclimate records from Central Asia might provide important information about spatio-temporal changes in the regional interplay between Westerlies and ASM and thus aid the understanding of global climate teleconnections. As a part of the project CADY (Central Asian Climate Dynamics), aiming at reconstructing past climatic and hydrological variability in Central Asia, several sediment cores were recovered from alpine Lake Son Kol (41° 48'N, 75° 12'E, 3016 m a. s. l.) in the Central Tian Shan of Kyrgyzstan. A radiocarbon-dated sediment sequence of 154.5 cm length, covering approximately the last 6000 years, was investigated by using a multi-proxy approach, including sedimentological, (bio)geochemical, isotopic and micropalaeontological analyses. Preliminary proxy data indicate hydrologically variable but predominantly wet conditions until ca. 5100 cal. a BP, characterized by the deposition of finely laminated organic-carbonatic sediments. In contrast to monsoonal Asia, where a distinct trend towards drier conditions is observed since the mid-Holocene, the hydrologically variable interval at Lake Son Kol was apparently followed by an only short-term dry episode between ca. 5100 and 4200 cal. a BP. This is characterized by a higher δD of the C29 n-alkanes, probably reflecting increased evapotranspiration. Also pollen, diatom and ostracod data point towards drier climate conditions. Higher δ15N values during this period may also reflect increased evaporation but could also be related to dust input of NOx, being in agreement with high amounts of fine-grained minerogenic material. Further periods of higher δ15N values and contents of fine-grained minerogenic material occurred at 3600-3000 and 2000-1600 cal. a BP. However, as biogeochemical data indicate no further distinct dry episodes since about 4200 cal. a BP, these intervals most probably reflect increased dust deposition. Finally, a trend towards wetter climate conditions can be observed during the last ca. 1500 years, reflected by high ostracod and diatom diversity and (bio)geochemical data. The absence of a pronounced drying trend since the mid-Holocene, as observed in monsoonal Asia, is largely consistent with results from other regional palaeoclimate records and might reflect the predominant influence of the strengthening mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate since this time.

Enhancing USDA's Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, W. L.; Shannon, H. D.

2013-12-01

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attachés, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB has often, as part of its operational process, used historical time series of surface-based precipitation observations to visually identify growing seasons with similar (analog) weather patterns as, and help estimate crop yields for, the current growing season. As part of a larger effort to improve WAOB estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing observations and research results into WAOB's decision-making environment, a more rigorous, statistical method for identifying analog years was developed. This method, termed the analog index (AI), is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The AI was computed for five study areas and six growing seasons of data analyzed (2003-2007 as potential analog years and 2008 as the target year). Previously reported results compared the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-retrieved precipitation data. Those results showed that, for all five areas, crop yield estimates derived from satellite-retrieved precipitation data are closer to measured yields than are estimates derived from surface-based precipitation observations. Subsequent work has compared the relative performance of AI for time series derived from satellite-retrieved surface soil moisture data and from root zone soil moisture derived from the assimilation of surface soil moisture data into a land surface model. These results, which also showed the potential benefits of satellite data for analog year analyses, will be presented.

A quantitative comparison of Soil Development in four climatic regimes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, J.W.; Taylor, E.M.

1983-01-01

A new quantitative Soil Development Index based on field data has been applied to chronosequences formed under different climatic regimes. The four soil chronosequences, developed primarily on sandy deposits, have some numeric age control and are located in xeric-inland (Merced, Calif.), xeric-coastal (Ventura, Calif.), aridic (Las Cruces, N. Mex.), and udic (Susquehanna Valley, Pa.) soil-moisture regimes. To quantify field properties, points are assigned for developmental increases in soil properties in comparison to the parent material. Currently ten soil-field properties are quantified and normalized for each horizon in a given chronosequence, including two new properties for carbonate-rich soils in addition to the eight properties previously defined. When individual properties or the combined indexes are plotted as a function of numeric age, rates of soil development can be compared in different climates. The results demonstrate that (1) the Soil Development Index can be applied to very different soil types, (2) many field properties develop systematically in different climatic regimes, (3) certain properties appear to have similar rates of development in different climates, and (4) the Profile Index that combines different field properties increases significantly with age and appears to develop at similar rates in different climates. The Soil Development Index can serve as a preliminary guide to soil age where other age control is lacking and can be used to correlate deposits of different geographical and climatic regions. ?? 1983.

Description of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). Technical note

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kiehl, J.T.; Hack, J.J.; Bonan, G.B.

This repor presents the details of the governing equations, physical parameterizations, and numerical algorithms defining the version of the NCAR Community Climate Model designated CCM3. The material provides an overview of the major model components, and the way in which they interact as the numerical integration proceeds. This version of the CCM incorporates significant improvements to the physic package, new capabilities such as the incorporation of a slab ocean component, and a number of enhancements to the implementation (e.g., the ability to integrate the model on parallel distributed-memory computational platforms).

Dynamics of climate-based malaria transmission model with age-structured human population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addawe, Joel; Pajimola, Aprimelle Kris

2016-10-01

In this paper, we proposed to study the dynamics of malaria transmission with periodic birth rate of the vector and an age-structure for the human population. The human population is divided into two compartments: pre-school (0-5 years) and the rest of the human population. We showed the existence of a disease-free equilibrium point. Using published epidemiological parameters, we use numerical simulations to show potential effect of climate change in the dynamics of age-structured malaria transmission. Numerical simulations suggest that there exists an asymptotically attractive solution that is positive and periodic.

On evolutionary climate tracks in deep mantle volatile cycle computed from numerical mantle convection simulations and its impact on the habitability of the Earth-like planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, T.; Tajika, E.; Kadoya, S.

2017-12-01

Discussing an impact of evolution and dynamics in the Earth's deep interior on the surface climate change for the last few decades (see review by Ehlmann et al., 2016), the mantle volatile (particularly carbon) degassing in the mid-oceanic ridges seems to play a key role in understanding the evolutionary climate track for Earth-like planets (e.g. Kadoya and Tajika, 2015). However, since the mantle degassing occurs not only in the mid-oceanic ridges but also in the wedge mantle (island arc volcanism) and hotspots, to incorporate more accurate estimate of mantle degassing flux into the climate evolution framework, we developed a coupled model of surface climate-deep Earth evolution in numerical mantle convection simulations, including more accurate deep water and carbon cycle (e.g. Nakagawa and Spiegelman, 2017) with an energy balance theory of climate change. Modeling results suggest that the evolution of planetary climate computed from a developed model is basically consistent with an evolutionary climate track in simplified mantle degassing model (Kadoya and Tajika, 2015), but an occurrence timing of global (snowball) glaciation is strongly dependent on mantle degassing rate occurred with activities of surface plate motions. With this implication, the surface plate motion driven by deep mantle dynamics would play an important role in the planetary habitability of such as the Earth and Earth-like planets over geologic time-scale.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments Index

Science.gov Websites

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > Monitoring and Data > Global Climate Data & Maps > ; Global Regional Climate Maps Regional Climate Maps Banner The Monthly regional analyses products are

Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and rapid changes (e.g., fire, land development) is challenging as changes can be confounded by time-dependent patterns, and variation associated with climatic factors. In the present study we leveraged a method, that we previously developed for a pilot study, to address these confounding factors by evaluating NDVI change using autoregression techniques that compare results from univariate (NDVI vs. time) and multivariate analyses (NDVI vs. time and climatic factors) for ~7,660,636 1-km2 pixels comprising the 48 contiguous states of the USA, over a 25-year period (1989−2013). NDVI changed significantly for 48% of the nation over the 25-year in the univariate analyses where most significant trends (85%) indicated an increase in greenness over time. By including climatic factors in the multivariate analyses of NDVI over time, the detection of significant NDVI trends increased to 53% (an increase of 5%). Comparisons of univariate and multivariate analyses for each pixel showed that less than 4% of the pixels had a significant NDVI trend attributable to gradual climatic changes while the remainder of pixels with a significant NDVI trend indicated that changes were due to direct factors. Whi

Hygrothermal Simulation of Wood Exposed To the Effect of External Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dohnal, Jakub; Hradil, Petr; Pencik, Jan

2017-10-01

The article is focused on simulation of moisture transfer in wood of norway spruce (Picea abies L.). Experimental specimen was exposed to the northern climatic conditions in Lund University, Sweden. The moisture content of wood was measured 10 mm from the surface for nearly three years. The ABAQUS program was used for numerical modelling of moisture transfer simulation in 3D. The surface sorption of wood was simulated using user defined subroutine DFLUX developed by VTT Research Centre of Finland Ltd. for the needs of European Project Durable Timber Bridges. Climate data for the analysis was used from insitu measurement nearby realized by weather station. The temperature, relative humidity of the air and precipitation data was record each hour. Numerical analysis took into account influence of rain effect on different parts of specimen surface.

Integrated Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction and Taphonomy of a Unique Upper Cretaceous Vertebrate-Bearing Locality (Velaux, Southeastern France)

PubMed Central

Cincotta, Aude; Yans, Johan; Godefroit, Pascal; Garcia, Géraldine; Dejax, Jean; Benammi, Mouloud; Amico, Sauveur; Valentin, Xavier

2015-01-01

The Velaux-La Bastide Neuve fossil-bearing site (Bouches-du-Rhône, France) has yielded a diverse vertebrate assemblage dominated by dinosaurs, including the titanosaur Atsinganosaurus velauciensis. We here provide a complete inventory of vertebrate fossils collected during two large-scale field campaigns. Numerous crocodilian teeth occur together with complete skulls. Pterosaur, hybodont shark and fish elements are also represented but uncommon. Magnetostratigraphic analyses associated with biostratigraphic data from dinosaur eggshell and charophytes suggest a Late Campanian age for the locality. Lithologic and taphonomic studies, associated with microfacies and palynofacies analyses, indicate a fluvial setting of moderate energy with broad floodplain. Palynomorphs are quite rare; only three taxa of pollen grains occur: a bisaccate taxon, a second form probably belonging to the Normapolles complex, and another tricolporate taxon. Despite the good state of preservation, these taxa are generally difficult to identify, since they are scarce and have a very minute size. Most of the vertebrate remains are well preserved and suggest transport of the carcasses over short distances before accumulation in channel and overbank facies, together with reworked Aptian grains of glauconite, followed by a rapid burial. The bones accumulated in three thin layers that differ by their depositional modes and their taphonomic histories. Numerous calcareous and iron oxides-rich paleosols developed on the floodplain, suggesting an alternating dry and humid climate in the region during the Late Campanian. PMID:26287486

Congruent climate-related genecological responses from molecular markers and quantitative traits for western white pine (Pinus monticola)

Treesearch

Bryce A. Richardson; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Mee-Sook Kim

2009-01-01

Analyses of molecular and quantitative genetic data demonstrate the existence of congruent climate-related patterns in western white pine (Pinus monticola). Two independent studies allowed comparisons of amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers with quantitative variation in adaptive traits. Principal component analyses...

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.

2014-01-01

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.

PubMed

Westphal, Michael F; Stewart, Joseph A E; Tennant, Erin N; Butterfield, H Scott; Sinervo, Barry

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Ultrascale Visualization of Climate Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Dean N.; Bremer, Timo; Doutriaux, Charles; Patchett, John; Williams, Sean; Shipman, Galen; Miller, Ross; Pugmire, David R.; Smith, Brian; Steed, Chad;

Assessing Climate Vulnerabilities of Food Distribution Center Sites in Greater Boston and Their Regional Implications: Climate Adaptation Planning in Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teferra, A.; Watson, C.; Douglas, E. M.

2016-12-01

The Metro Boston region, an area whose civic leaders have been at the forefront of climate resilience initiatives in recent years, is finalizing a flood vulnerability assessment of food distribution center sites located north of Boston, with the support of the University of Massachusetts Boston and the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange program. The community-scientist collaboration emerged because of the need for more local analyses of the area to inform climate resiliency policy and planning actions for the region. A significant amount of the metro region's food supply passes through two major distribution centers in the cities of Everett and Chelsea, just north of the Mystic River. The Metropolitan Area Planning Council (MAPC), on behalf of the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce, is working with Chris Watson and Ellen Douglas of UMass Boston to build on existing analyses of the region's food system and climate vulnerabilities and to develop a report identifying flood risk exposure to the sites. The analysis brings in dynamic modeling techniques that incorporate storm surge and sea level rise projections under different climate scenarios, and aims to align methodologies with those of other regional analyses, such as Climate Ready Boston and the City of Cambridge's Vulnerability Assessment. The study is helping to inform MAPC's and the Metro Boston Climate Preparedness Taskforce's understanding of this critical food distribution infrastructure, illustrate the larger regional implications of climate impacts on food distribution in the Greater Boston area, and guide the development of site-specific strategies for addressing identified vulnerabilities.

Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Stone, Dáithí; Tadross, Mark; Wehner, Michael; Hewitson, Bruce

2014-04-01

In the charismatic wetlands of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, the annual floods of 2009-2011 reached magnitudes last seen 20-30 years ago, considerably affecting life of local populations and the economically important tourism industry. In this study, we analyse results from an attribution modelling system designed to examine how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to weather and flood risk in our current climate. The system is based on comparison of real world climate and hydrological simulations with parallel counterfactual simulations of the climate and hydrological responses under conditions that might have been had human activities not emitted greenhouse gases. The analyses allow us to address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change contributed to increasing the risk of these high flood events in the Okavango system. Results show that the probability of occurrence of high floods during 2009-2011 in the current climate is likely lower than it would have been in a climate without anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This result is robust across the two climate models and various data processing procedures, although the exact figures for the associated decrease in risk differ. Results also differ between the three years examined, indicating that the “time-slice” method used here needs to be applied to multiple years in order to accurately estimate the contribution of emissions to current risk. Simple sensitivity analyses indicate that the reduction in flood risk is attributed to higher temperatures (and thus evaporation) in the current world, with little difference in the analysed domain's rainfall simulated in the two scenarios.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance.

PubMed

Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

2005-11-29

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.

Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance

PubMed Central

Stone, Roger C; Meinke, Holger

2005-01-01

Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production. PMID:16433097

Metabolomic unveiling of a diverse range of green tea (Camellia sinensis) metabolites dependent on geography.

PubMed

Lee, Jang-Eun; Lee, Bum-Jin; Chung, Jin-Oh; Kim, Hak-Nam; Kim, Eun-Hee; Jung, Sungheuk; Lee, Hyosang; Lee, Sang-Jun; Hong, Young-Shick

2015-05-01

Numerous factors such as geographical origin, cultivar, climate, cultural practices, and manufacturing processes influence the chemical compositions of tea, in the same way as growing conditions and grape variety affect wine quality. However, the relationships between these factors and tea chemical compositions are not well understood. In this study, a new approach for non-targeted or global analysis, i.e., metabolomics, which is highly reproducible and statistically effective in analysing a diverse range of compounds, was used to better understand the metabolome of Camellia sinensis and determine the influence of environmental factors, including geography, climate, and cultural practices, on tea-making. We found a strong correlation between environmental factors and the metabolome of green, white, and oolong teas from China, Japan, and South Korea. In particular, multivariate statistical analysis revealed strong inter-country and inter-city relationships in the levels of theanine and catechin derivatives found in green and white teas. This information might be useful for assessing tea quality or producing distinct tea products across different locations, and highlights simultaneous identification of diverse tea metabolites through an NMR-based metabolomics approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inter-model variability in hydrological extremes projections for Amazonian sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Garofolo, Lucas; Lázaro de Siqueira Júnior, José; Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme; Tomasella, Javier

2014-05-01

Irreducible uncertainties due to knowledge's limitations, chaotic nature of climate system and human decision-making process drive uncertainties in Climate Change projections. Such uncertainties affect the impact studies, mainly when associated to extreme events, and difficult the decision-making process aimed at mitigation and adaptation. However, these uncertainties allow the possibility to develop exploratory analyses on system's vulnerability to different sceneries. The use of different climate model's projections allows to aboard uncertainties issues allowing the use of multiple runs to explore a wide range of potential impacts and its implications for potential vulnerabilities. Statistical approaches for analyses of extreme values are usually based on stationarity assumptions. However, nonstationarity is relevant at the time scales considered for extreme value analyses and could have great implications in dynamic complex systems, mainly under climate change transformations. Because this, it is required to consider the nonstationarity in the statistical distribution parameters. We carried out a study of the dispersion in hydrological extremes projections using climate change projections from several climate models to feed the Distributed Hydrological Model of the National Institute for Spatial Research, MHD-INPE, applied in Amazonian sub-basins. This model is a large-scale hydrological model that uses a TopModel approach to solve runoff generation processes at the grid-cell scale. MHD-INPE model was calibrated for 1970-1990 using observed meteorological data and comparing observed and simulated discharges by using several performance coeficients. Hydrological Model integrations were performed for present historical time (1970-1990) and for future period (2010-2100). Because climate models simulate the variability of the climate system in statistical terms rather than reproduce the historical behavior of climate variables, the performances of the model's runs during the historical period, when feed with climate model data, were tested using descriptors of the Flow Duration Curves. The analyses of projected extreme values were carried out considering the nonstationarity of the GEV distribution parameters and compared with extremes events in present time. Results show inter-model variability in a broad dispersion on projected extreme's values. Such dispersion implies different degrees of socio-economic impacts associated to extreme hydrological events. Despite the no existence of one optimum result, this variability allows the analyses of adaptation strategies and its potential vulnerabilities.

Developing a Metadata Infrastructure to facilitate data driven science gateway and to provide Inspire/GEMINI compliance for CLIPC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihajlovski, Andrej; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Page, Christian

2016-04-01

The CLIPC project is developing a portal to provide a single point of access for scientific information on climate change. This is made possible through the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme for Europe, which will deliver a new generation of environmental measurements of climate quality. The data about the physical environment which is used to inform climate change policy and adaptation measures comes from several categories: satellite measurements, terrestrial observing systems, model projections and simulations and from re-analyses (syntheses of all available observations constrained with numerical weather prediction systems). These data categories are managed by different communities: CLIPC will provide a single point of access for the whole range of data. The CLIPC portal will provide a number of indicators showing impacts on specific sectors which have been generated using a range of factors selected through structured expert consultation. It will also, as part of the transformation services, allow users to explore the consequences of using different combinations of driving factors which they consider to be of particular relevance to their work or life. The portal will provide information on the scientific quality and pitfalls of such transformations to prevent misleading usage of the results. The CLIPC project will develop an end to end processing chain (indicator tool kit), from comprehensive information on the climate state through to highly aggregated decision relevant products. Indicators of climate change and climate change impact will be provided, and a tool kit to update and post process the collection of indicators will be integrated into the portal. The CLIPC portal has a distributed architecture, making use of OGC services provided by e.g., climate4impact.eu and CEDA. CLIPC has two themes: 1. Harmonized access to climate datasets derived from models, observations and re-analyses 2. A climate impact tool kit to evaluate, rank and aggregate indicators Key is the availability of standardized metadata, describing indicator data and services. This will enable standardization and interoperability between the different distributed services of CLIPC. To disseminate CLIPC indicator data, transformed data products to enable impacts assessments and climate change impact indicators a standardized meta-data infrastructure is provided. The challenge is that compliance of existing metadata to INSPIRE ISO standards and GEMINI standards needs to be extended to further allow the web portal to be generated from the available metadata blueprint. The information provided in the headers of netCDF files available through multiple catalogues, allow us to generate ISO compliant meta data which is in turn used to generate web based interface content, as well as OGC compliant web services such as WCS and WMS for front end and WPS interactions for the scientific users to combine and generate new datasets. The goal of the metadata infrastructure is to provide a blueprint for creating a data driven science portal, generated from the underlying: GIS data, web services and processing infrastructure. In the presentation we will present the results and lessons learned.

From Past to future: the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project's contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy; Haywood, Alan; Jungclaus, Johann; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

2016-04-01

Since the 1990s, PMIP has developed with the following objectives: 1/to evaluate the ability of climate models used for climate prediction in simulating well-documented past climates outside the range of present and recent climate variability; 2/to understand the mechanisms of these climate changes, in particular the role of the different climate feedbacks. To achieve these goals, PMIP has actively fostered paleo-data syntheses, multi-model analyses, including analyses of relationships between model results from past and future simulations, and model-data comparisons. For CMIP6, PMIP will focus on five past periods: - the Last Millennium (850 CE - present), to analyse natural climate variability on multidecadal or longer time-scales - the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago, to compare model runs with paleodata for a period of warmer climate in the Northern Hemisphere, with an enhanced hydrological cycle - the Last Glacial Maximum, 21000 years ago, to evaluate the ability of climate models to represent a cold climate extreme and examine whether paleoinformation about this period can help and constrain climate sensitivity - the Last InterGlacial (~127,000 year ago), which provides a benchmark for a period of high sea-level stand - the mid-Pliocene warm period (~3.2 million years ago), which allows for the evaluation of the model's long-term response to a CO2 level analogous to the modern one. This poster will present the rationale of these "PMIP4-CMIP6" experiments. Participants are invited to come and discuss about the experimental set-up and the model output to be distributed via CMIP6. For more information and discussion of the PMIP4-CMIP6 experimental design, please visit: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/pmip3/doku.php/pmip3:cmip6:design:index

Extra-Mediterranean refugia: The rule and not the exception?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Some decades ago, biogeographers distinguished three major faunal types of high importance for Europe: (i) Mediterranean elements with exclusive glacial survival in the Mediterranean refugia, (ii) Siberian elements with glacial refugia in the eastern Palearctic and only postglacial expansion to Europe and (iii) arctic and/or alpine elements with large zonal distributions in the periglacial areas and postglacial retreat to the North and/or into the high mountain systems. Genetic analyses have unravelled numerous additional refugia both of continental and Mediterranean species, thus strongly modifying the biogeographical view of Europe. This modified notion is particularly true for the so-called Siberian species, which in many cases have not immigrated into Europe during the postglacial period, but most likely have survived the last, or even several glacial phases, in extra-Mediterranean refugia in some climatically favourable but geographically limited areas of southern Central and Eastern Europe. Recently, genetic analyses revealed that typical Mediterranean species have also survived the Last Glacial Maximum in cryptic northern refugia (e.g. in the Carpathians or even north of the Alps) in addition to their Mediterranean refuge areas. PMID:22953783

Tools for Interdisciplinary Data Assimilation and Sharing in Support of Hydrologic Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blodgett, D. L.; Walker, J.; Suftin, I.; Warren, M.; Kunicki, T.

2013-12-01

Information consumed and produced in hydrologic analyses is interdisciplinary and massive. These factors put a heavy information management burden on the hydrologic science community. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Office of Water Information Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) seeks to assist hydrologic science investigators with all-components of their scientific data management life cycle. Ongoing data publication and software development projects will be presented demonstrating publically available data access services and manipulation tools being developed with support from two Department of the Interior initiatives. The USGS-led National Water Census seeks to provide both data and tools in support of nationally consistent water availability estimates. Newly available data include national coverages of radar-indicated precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water use estimates aggregated by county, and South East region estimates of streamflow for 12-digit hydrologic unit code watersheds. Web services making these data available and applications to access them will be demonstrated. Web-available processing services able to provide numerous streamflow statistics for any USGS daily flow record or model result time series and other National Water Census processing tools will also be demonstrated. The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center is a USGS center leading DOI-funded academic global change adaptation research. It has a mission goal to ensure data used and produced by funded projects is available via web services and tools that streamline data management tasks in interdisciplinary science. For example, collections of downscaled climate projections, typically large collections of files that must be downloaded to be accessed, are being published using web services that allow access to the entire dataset via simple web-service requests and numerous processing tools. Recent progress on this front includes, data web services for Climate Model Intercomparison Phase 5 based downscaled climate projections, EPA's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios projections of population and land cover metrics, and MODIS-derived land cover parameters from NASA's Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center. These new services and ways to discover others will be presented through demonstration of a recently open-sourced project from a web-application or scripted workflow. Development and public deployment of server-based processing tools to subset and summarize these and other data is ongoing at the CIDA with partner groups such as 52 Degrees North and Unidata. The latest progress on subsetting, spatial summarization to areas of interest, and temporal summarization via common-statistical methods will be presented.

Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

2012-04-01

Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

Weather and seasonal climate prediction for South America using a multi-model superensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaves, Rosane R.; Ross, Robert S.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2005-11-01

This work examines the feasibility of weather and seasonal climate predictions for South America using the multi-model synthetic superensemble approach for climate, and the multi-model conventional superensemble approach for numerical weather prediction, both developed at Florida State University (FSU). The effect on seasonal climate forecasts of the number of models used in the synthetic superensemble is investigated. It is shown that the synthetic superensemble approach for climate and the conventional superensemble approach for numerical weather prediction can reduce the errors over South America in seasonal climate prediction and numerical weather prediction.For climate prediction, a suite of 13 models is used. The forecast lead-time is 1 month for the climate forecasts, which consist of precipitation and surface temperature forecasts. The multi-model ensemble is comprised of four versions of the FSU-Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model, seven models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER), a version of the Community Climate Model (CCM3), and a version of the predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The results show that conditions over South America are appropriately simulated by the Florida State University Synthetic Superensemble (FSUSSE) in comparison to observations and that the skill of this approach increases with the use of additional models in the ensemble. When compared to observations, the forecasts are generally better than those from both a single climate model and the multi-model ensemble mean, for the variables tested in this study.For numerical weather prediction, the conventional Florida State University Superensemble (FSUSE) is used to predict the mass and motion fields over South America. Predictions of mean sea level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, and 850 hPa wind are made with a multi-model superensemble comprised of six global models for the period January, February, and December of 2000. The six global models are from the following forecast centers: FSU, Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), and Recherche en Prevision Numerique (RPN). Predictions of precipitation are made for the period January, February, and December of 2001 with a multi-analysis-multi-model superensemble where, in addition to the six forecast models just mentioned, five additional versions of the FSU model are used in the ensemble, each with a different initialization (analysis) based on different physical initialization procedures. On the basis of observations, the results show that the FSUSE provides the best forecasts of the mass and motion field variables to forecast day 5, when compared to both the models comprising the ensemble and the multi-model ensemble mean during the wet season of December-February over South America. Individual case studies show that the FSUSE provides excellent predictions of rainfall for particular synoptic events to forecast day 3. Copyright

Numerical modelling of convective heat transport by air flow in permafrost talus slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicky, Jonas; Hauck, Christian

2017-06-01

Talus slopes are a widespread geomorphic feature in the Alps. Due to their high porosity a gravity-driven internal air circulation can be established which is forced by the gradient between external (air) and internal (talus) temperature. The thermal regime is different from the surrounding environment, leading to the occurrence of permafrost below the typical permafrost zone. This phenomenon has mainly been analysed by field studies and only few explicit numerical modelling studies exist. Numerical simulations of permafrost sometimes use parameterisations for the effects of convection but mostly neglect the influence of convective heat transfer in air on the thermal regime. In contrast, in civil engineering many studies have been carried out to investigate the thermal behaviour of blocky layers and to improve their passive cooling effect. The present study further develops and applies these concepts to model heat transfer in air flows in a natural-scale talus slope. Modelling results show that convective heat transfer has the potential to develop a significant temperature difference between the lower and the upper parts of the talus slope. A seasonally alternating chimney-effect type of circulation develops. Modelling results also show that this convective heat transfer leads to the formation of a cold reservoir in the lower part of the talus slope, which can be crucial for maintaining the frozen ground conditions despite increasing air temperatures caused by climate change.

Final Report: Closeout of the Award NO. DE-FG02-98ER62618 (M.S. Fox-Rabinovitz, P.I.)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fox-Rabinovitz, M. S.

The final report describes the study aimed at exploring the variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) approach to decadal regional climate modeling using advanced numerical techniques. The obtained results have shown that variable-resolution SG-GCMs using stretched grids with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable established approach to regional climate modeling. The developed SG-GCMs have been extensively used for regional climate experimentation. The SG-GCM simulations are aimed at studying the U.S. regional climate variability with an emphasis on studying anomalous summer climate events, the U.S. droughts and floods.

Reducing uncertainty in Climate Response Time Scale by Bayesian Analysis of the 8.2 ka event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorenz, A.; Held, H.; Bauer, E.; Schneider von Deimling, T.

2009-04-01

We analyze the possibility of uncertainty reduction in Climate Response Time Scale by utilizing Greenland ice-core data that contain the 8.2 ka event within a Bayesian model-data intercomparison with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3. Within a stochastic version of the model it has been possible to mimic the 8.2 ka event within a plausible experimental setting and with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modeling exercises [1]. The simulation of the centennial cold event is effectively determined by the oceanic cooling rate which depends largely on the ocean diffusivity described by diffusion coefficients of relatively wide uncertainty ranges. The idea now is to discriminate between the different values of diffusivities according to their likelihood to rightly represent the duration of the 8.2 ka event and thus to exploit the paleo data to constrain uncertainty in model parameters in analogue to [2]. Implementing this inverse Bayesian Analysis with this model the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically in addition to the uncertain model parameters: While mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study [3] the Bayesian Analysis showed a reduction of uncertainty in vertical ocean diffusivity parameters of factor 2 compared to prior knowledge. This learning effect on the model parameters is propagated to other model outputs of interest; e.g. the inverse ocean heat capacity, which is important for the dominant time scale of climate response to anthropogenic forcing which, in combination with climate sensitivity, strongly influences the climate systems reaction for the near- and medium-term future. 1 References [1] E. Bauer, A. Ganopolski, M. Montoya: Simulation of the cold climate event 8200 years ago by meltwater outburst from lake Agassiz. Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, (2004) [2] T. Schneider von Deimling, H. Held, A. Ganopolski, S. Rahmstorf, Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climates, Climate Dynamics 27, 149-163, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0126-8 (2006). [3] A. Lorenz, Diploma Thesis, U Potsdam (2007).

Numerical Modeling of Climatic Change from the Terminus Record of Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruss, Phillip Donald

Over the last 100 years, the glaciers and lakes of East Africa have undergone dramatic change in response to climatic forcing. However, the available conventional meterological series have not proven sufficient to explain these environmental events. The secular climatic change at Lewis Glacier, Mount Kenya (0(DEGREES)9'S, 37(DEGREES)19'E), is reconstructed from its terminus record documented since 1893. The short-time-step numerical model developed for this study consists of climate and ice dynamics segments. The climate segment directly computes the effect on the net balance of change in the four forcings: precipitation, albedo, cloudiness, and temperature. The flow segment calculates the dynamic glacier response to net balance variation. Climatic change occurs over a wide range of time scales. Each glacier responds in a unique fashion to this spectrum of climatic forcings. The response of the Lewis terminus extent to repeated sinusoidal fluctuation in the net balance is calculated. The net balance versus elevation profile is separately translated along the orthogonal balance and elevation axes. Net balance amplitudes of 0.1 to 0.5 m a('-1) of ice and 10 to 50 m elevation, respectively, and periods ranging from 20 to 1000 years are covered. Consideration of the Lewis response is perspective with similar results for Hintereisferner, Storglaciaren, and Berendon and South Cascade Glaciers identifies general characteristics of the time lag and amplitude of the terminus response. The magnitude and timing of the change in only one of the climatic forcings precipitation, albedo, cloudiness, or temperature necessary to produce the retreat of the Lewis terminus from its late 19th century maximum are computed. Equivalent changes for two scenarios of simultaneous variation, namely precipitation/albedo/cloudiness and temperature/albedo, are also estimated. These numerical results are interpreted in the light of long-term lake level, river flow, and instrumental information. A decrease in the annual precipitation of about 160 (+OR-) 70 mm between the early 1880's and the very beginning of the 20th century followed by a secular air temperature rise of 0.35 (+OR-) 0.2(DEGREES)C during the first half of the 1900's, with most warming occurring after about 1920--these climatic changes together with associated albedo and cloudiness variation constitute the most likely cause of the Lewis Glacier wastage during the last 100 years. The modeling and interpretation techniques developed offer the potential for deriving climatic information from the long terminus records and dated geological evidence of past ice extents available for other glaciers. Given the difficulty of documenting climatic change by conventional techniques, the possible role for glaciers and other climate -sensitive environmental components in the monitoring of recent climatic change should be explored.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Water Temperatures Across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, N.; Knouft, J.; Ficklin, D. L.

2017-12-01

Analyses of long-term observation data have revealed significant changes in several components of climate and the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States during the twentieth and early twenty-first century. Mean surface air temperatures have significantly increased in most areas of the country. In addition, water temperatures are increasing in many watersheds across the United States. While there are numerous studies assessing the impact of climate change on air temperatures at regional and global scales, fewer studies have investigated the impacts of climate change on stream water temperatures. Projecting increases in water temperature are particularly important to the conservation of freshwater ecosystems. To achieve better insights into attributes regulating population and community dynamics of aquatic biota at large spatial and temporal scales, we need to establish relationships between environmental heterogeneity and critical biological processes of stream ecosystems at these scales. Increases in stream temperatures caused by the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide may result in a significant loss of fish habitat in the United States. Utilization of physically based hydrological-water temperature models is computationally demanding and can be onerous to many researchers who specialize in other disciplines. Using statistical techniques to analyze observational data from 1760 USGS stream temperature gages, our goal is to develop a simple yet accurate method to quantify the impacts of climate warming on stream water temperatures in a way that is practical for aquatic biologists, water and environmental management purposes, and conservation practitioners and policy-makers. Using an ensemble of five global climate models (GCMs), we estimate the potential impacts of climate change on stream temperatures within the contiguous United States based on recent trends. Stream temperatures are projected to increase across the US, but the magnitude of the changes are not expected to be uniform across the region and these relationships are expected to vary from month to month. Combined with expected changes in stream flows, the projected changes in the thermal regimes of streams can fundamentally transform stream habitats and the distribution of biodiversity.

Autogenic and Allogenic: Emergent Coastline Patterns Interact With Forcing Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, A. B.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Mendez, F. J.; Moore, L. J.; Wood, J.; Farley, G.

2017-12-01

A range of coastline shapes can emerge from large-scale morphodynamic interactions. Coastline shape determines local wave influences. Local wave influences (fluxes of alongshore momentum), determine sediment fluxes, and gradients in these sediment fluxes, in turn, alter coastline shape. Modeling studies show that such feedbacks lead to an instability, and to subsequent finite-amplitude interactions, producing self-organized patterns and emergent structures including sandwaves, capes, and spits (e.g. Ashton and Murray, 2006; Ashton et al., 2015); spiral bays on rocky coastlines (e.g. Barkwith et al., 2014); and convex, spit-bounded coastlines (Ells et al., in prep.). Coastline shapes depend sensitively on wave climate, defined as the angular distribution of wave influences on alongshore sediment transport. Therefore, shifts in wave climate arising from shifts in storms (decadal scale fluctuations or longer-term trends) will tend to change coastline shape. Previous efforts have detected changing coastline shape, likely related to changing influence from hurricane-generated waves, as expressed in changes in the location and intensity of coastal erosion zones along the cuspate capes in North Carolina, USA (Moore et al., 2013). These efforts involved the assumption that coastline response to changing forcing occurs in a quasi-equilibrium manner. However, in some cases coastline responses can exhibit long-term memory and path dependence (Thomas et al., 2016). Recently, we have hindcast the wave climate affecting the North Carolina coast since 1870, using a series of statistical analyses to downscale from basin-scale surface pressure fields to regional deep-water wave climate, and then a numerical transformation to local offshore wave climate. We used this wave climate as input for the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM). The results show that the emergent coastline features respond to decadal-scale shifts in wave climate, but with time lags that complicate the relationship between forcing and coastline shape. Comparisons between model predictions and observed shoreline-change patterns support the suggestion that the relationship between emergent coastline behaviours (autogenic processes) and external influences (autogenic forcing) involves such memory effects (Antolinez et al., in revision).

The influence of authentic leadership on safety climate in nursing.

PubMed

Dirik, Hasan Fehmi; Seren Intepeler, Seyda

2017-07-01

This study analysed nurses' perceptions of authentic leadership and safety climate and examined the contribution of authentic leadership to the safety climate. It has been suggested and emphasised that authentic leadership should be used as a guidance to ensure quality care and the safety of patients and health-care personnel. This predictive study was conducted with 350 nurses in three Turkish hospitals. The data were collected using the Authentic Leadership Questionnaire and the Safety Climate Survey and analysed using hierarchical regression analysis. The mean authentic leadership perception and the safety climate scores of the nurses were 2.92 and 3.50, respectively. The percentage of problematic responses was found to be less than 10% for only four safety climate items. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that authentic leadership significantly predicted the safety climate. Procedural and political improvements are required in terms of the safety climate in institutions, where the study was conducted, and authentic leadership increases positive perceptions of safety climate. Exhibiting the characteristics of authentic leadership, or improving them and reflecting them on to personnel can enhance the safety climate. Planning information sharing meetings to raise the personnel's awareness of safety climate and systemic improvements can contribute to creating safe care climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate science: Misconceptions of global catastrophe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-04-01

American attitudes to changing weather, and therefore to climate change, have been analysed on the basis of US migration patterns since the 1970s. The findings have implications for the success of global climate policies. See Letter p.357

Putting the Nation on a Path for Climate Resilience and Preparedness

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Putting current data in a historical context, NOAA publishes the monthly State of the Climate Report that includes analyses of the Nation's recent climate conditions, their unusualness, and their rank within long‐term trends.

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics of Dianchi Lake Basin under the Background of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenyu, Yu; Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Qiongfei, Deng

2017-05-01

Based on the data published by the State Statistical Bureau and the weather station data, the annual mean temperature, wind speed, humidity, light duration and precipitation of Dianchi Lake in 1990 ~ 2014 were analysed. Combined with the population The results show that the climatic changes in Dianchi Lake basin are related to the climatic change in the past 25 years, and the correlation between these factors and the main climatic factors are analysed by linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly, R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis. Population, housing construction area growth and other aspects of the correlation trends and changes in the process, revealing the population expansion and housing construction area growth on the climate of the main factors of the cycle tendency of significant impact.

Linking organizational resources and work engagement to employee performance and customer loyalty: the mediation of service climate.

PubMed

Salanova, Marisa; Agut, Sonia; Peiró, José María

2005-11-01

This study examined the mediating role of service climate in the prediction of employee performance and customer loyalty. Contact employees (N=342) from 114 service units (58 hotel front desks and 56 restaurants) provided information about organizational resources, engagement, and service climate. Furthermore, customers (N=1,140) from these units provided information on employee performance and customer loyalty. Structural equation modeling analyses were consistent with a full mediation model in which organizational resources and work engagement predict service climate, which in turn predicts employee performance and then customer loyalty. Further analyses revealed a potential reciprocal effect between service climate and customer loyalty. Implications of the study are discussed, together with limitations and suggestions for future research. ((c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved).

Why Interfaces are the Key for Developing Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cortekar, Jörg; Bender, Steffen; Groth, Markus

2015-04-01

Responding to climate change today involves both mitigation to address the cause and adaptation as a response to already on-going and expected changes. But to what exactly do we have to adapt? And what happens, when environmental, economical or administrative boundary conditions changes? In recent years the concept of climate services has evolved to provide user tailored information to meet individual adaptation needs. According to the Global Framework for Climate Services, climate services involve high-quality data e.g. on temperature, rainfall, wind, etc., as well as maps, risk and vulnerability analyses, assessments, and long-term projections and scenarios. Depending on specific user's needs, these data and information products may be combined with non-meteorological sector-specific data, such as agricultural production, flood risk maps or health trends, and other socio-economic variables to support decision-making of stakeholders who are affected by climate change. This, still non-exhaustive list already indicates that many different scientific disciplines are involved in the development and provision of climate services. Integrating different and equally important scientific approaches to contribute to the solution of one specific problem is challenging. In economics, for instance, many different and promising methods and tools such as cost-benefit-analyses are available which play a key role in providing policy makers and other stakeholders with data and information in order to create a robust decision-making basis for efficiently using scarce budgets. Cost-benefit-analysis is a well-established method in economic theory, its application in the field of climate change adaptation, however, is still new. The bulk of cost and benefit assessments currently pursues a top-down-approach. That is, the required data is generated by downscaling cost and benefit estimations of global impact assessment models to a specific region. In many cases global information are not fully capable to solve regional adaptation problems, since it does not account for the heterogeneous and highly context-dependent character of local conditions. Conducting a sound cost-benefit-analysis with respect to adaptation measures requires input from numerous disciplines. While cost estimations are mostly easily manageable, calculating benefits usually requires further input on different time and spatial scales. Depending on the object of interest this could be, for example, climatological, hydrological and environmental information. Of course, this is not specifically an economic issue. Practical examples such as for local water supply or from planning adaptation measures in urban areas clearly indicate that overcoming disciplinary borders is always challenging. Even though the integration of different scientific disciplines is progressing, there is still no how-to guideline and it can be doubted there will be one some day. Lessons learnt show that upcoming questions must be solved on a case-to-case basis. This means the interfaces between disciplines must be identified and designed with respect to the existing context and participating stakeholders, which requires much effort, a local multiplier and the willingness of all participating partners to find adequate solutions.

rpe v5: an emulator for reduced floating-point precision in large numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Andrew; Düben, Peter D.

2017-06-01

This paper describes the rpe (reduced-precision emulator) library which has the capability to emulate the use of arbitrary reduced floating-point precision within large numerical models written in Fortran. The rpe software allows model developers to test how reduced floating-point precision affects the result of their simulations without having to make extensive code changes or port the model onto specialized hardware. The software can be used to identify parts of a program that are problematic for numerical precision and to guide changes to the program to allow a stronger reduction in precision.The development of rpe was motivated by the strong demand for more computing power. If numerical precision can be reduced for an application under consideration while still achieving results of acceptable quality, computational cost can be reduced, since a reduction in numerical precision may allow an increase in performance or a reduction in power consumption. For simulations with weather and climate models, savings due to a reduction in precision could be reinvested to allow model simulations at higher spatial resolution or complexity, or to increase the number of ensemble members to improve predictions. rpe was developed with a particular focus on the community of weather and climate modelling, but the software could be used with numerical simulations from other domains.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar Numerical Forecast Systems NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance Page [< Modeling Center NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) 5830 University Research Court

Historical and projected climate [Chapter 3

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Marian Talbert

2018-01-01

The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) region is characterized by extreme temperatures and precipitation; it is home to some of the driest, hottest, and coldest locations in the conterminous United States. The region has numerous mountain ranges, high-elevation basins and valleys, and low-elevation mesas and canyons. Climate is influenced by this diverse and...

The Relationship of the Principal's Soft Skills to School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malone, Mark E.

2013-01-01

School Climate has been identified by a large body of literature as having a direct relationship on student achievement (Johnson, & Stevens, 2000; Kezar & Eckel, 2007; West, 1985), and) and numerous other components used to determine the success and safety of both students and teachers in schools (Finnan, Schnepel, & Anderson, 2003;…

Carbon stocks of mangroves within the Zambezi River Delta, Mozambique

Treesearch

Christina E. Stringer; Carl C. Trettin; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Wenwu Tang

2015-01-01

Mangroves are well-known for their numerous ecosystem services, including storing a globally significant C pool. There is increasing interest in the inclusion of mangroves in national climate change mitigation and adaptation plans in developing nations as they become involved with incentive programs for climate change mitigation. The quality and precision of data...

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?

PubMed Central

Palmer, T. N.

2014-01-01

This paper sets out a new methodological approach to solving the equations for simulating and predicting weather and climate. In this approach, the conventionally hard boundary between the dynamical core and the sub-grid parametrizations is blurred. This approach is motivated by the relatively shallow power-law spectrum for atmospheric energy on scales of hundreds of kilometres and less. It is first argued that, because of this, the closure schemes for weather and climate simulators should be based on stochastic–dynamic systems rather than deterministic formulae. Second, as high-wavenumber elements of the dynamical core will necessarily inherit this stochasticity during time integration, it is argued that the dynamical core will be significantly over-engineered if all computations, regardless of scale, are performed completely deterministically and if all variables are represented with maximum numerical precision (in practice using double-precision floating-point numbers). As the era of exascale computing is approached, an energy- and computationally efficient approach to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulation is described where determinism and numerical precision are focused on the largest scales only. PMID:24842038

More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?

PubMed

Palmer, T N

2014-06-28

This paper sets out a new methodological approach to solving the equations for simulating and predicting weather and climate. In this approach, the conventionally hard boundary between the dynamical core and the sub-grid parametrizations is blurred. This approach is motivated by the relatively shallow power-law spectrum for atmospheric energy on scales of hundreds of kilometres and less. It is first argued that, because of this, the closure schemes for weather and climate simulators should be based on stochastic-dynamic systems rather than deterministic formulae. Second, as high-wavenumber elements of the dynamical core will necessarily inherit this stochasticity during time integration, it is argued that the dynamical core will be significantly over-engineered if all computations, regardless of scale, are performed completely deterministically and if all variables are represented with maximum numerical precision (in practice using double-precision floating-point numbers). As the era of exascale computing is approached, an energy- and computationally efficient approach to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulation is described where determinism and numerical precision are focused on the largest scales only.

The new version of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Sigma Ocean Model (INMSOM) for simulation of Global Ocean circulation and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Anatoly; Fomin, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay; Korshenko, Evgeniya

2017-04-01

In this paper, we present the improved version of the ocean general circulation sigma-model developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INM RAS). The previous version referred to as INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) is used as the oceanic component of the IPCC climate system model INMCM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model (Volodin et al 2010,2013). Besides, INMOM as the only sigma-model was used for simulations according to CORE-II scenario (Danabasoglu et al. 2014,2016; Downes et al. 2015; Farneti et al. 2015). In general, INMOM results are comparable to ones of other OGCMs and were used for investigation of climatic variations in the North Atlantic (Gusev and Diansky 2014). However, detailed analysis of some CORE-II INMOM results revealed some disadvantages of the INMOM leading to considerable errors in reproducing some ocean characteristics. So, the mass transport in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) was overestimated. As well, there were noticeable errors in reproducing thermohaline structure of the ocean. After analysing the previous results, the new version of the OGCM was developed. It was decided to entitle is INMSOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Sigma Ocean Model). The new title allows one to distingwish the new model, first, from its older version, and second, from another z-model developed in the INM RAS and referred to as INMIO (Institute of Numerical Mathematics and Institute of Oceanology ocean model) (Ushakov et al. 2016). There were numerous modifications in the model, some of them are as follows. 1) Formulation of the ocean circulation problem in terms of full free surface with taking into account water amount variation. 2) Using tensor form of lateral viscosity operator invariant to rotation. 3) Using isopycnal diffusion including Gent-McWilliams mixing. 4) Using atmospheric forcing computation according to NCAR methodology (Large and Yeager 2009). 5) Improvement river runoff algorithm accounting the total amount of discharged water. 6) Using explicit leapfrog time scheme for all lateral operators and implicit Euler scheme for vertical diffusion and viscosity. The INMSOM is tested by reproducing World Ocean circulation and thermohaline characteristics using the well-proved CORE dataset. The presentation is devoted to the analysis of new INMSOM simulation results, estimation of their quality and comparison to the ones previously obtained with the INMOM. The main aim of the INMSOM development is using it as the oceanic component of the next version of INMCM. The work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grants № 16-05-00534 and № 15-05-07539) References 1. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager S.G., Bailey D., et al., 2014: North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part I: Mean states. Ocean Modelling, 73, 76-107. 2. Danabasoglu, G., Yeager S.G., Kim W.M. et al., 2016: North Atlantic simulations in Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II). Part II: Inter-annual to decadal variability. Ocean Modelling, 97, 65-90. 3. Downes S.M., Farneti R., Uotila P. et al. An assessment of Southern Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Ocean Modelling (2015), 94, 67-94. 4. Farneti R., Downes S.M., Griffies S.M. et al. An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation during 1958-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations, Ocean Modelling (2015), 93, 84-120. 5. Gusev A.V. and Diansky N.A. Numerical simulation of the World ocean circulation and its climatic variability for 1948-2007 using the INMOM. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2014, V. 50, N. 1, P. 1-12 6. Large, W., Yeager, S., 2009. The global climatology of an interannually varying air-sea flux data set. Clim Dyn, V. 33, P. 341-364. 7. Ushakov K.V., Grankina T.B., Ibraev R.A. Modeling the water circulation in the North Atlantic in the scope of the CORE-II experiment. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2016. V. 52, № 4, P. 365-375

Validating a work group climate assessment tool for improving the performance of public health organizations

PubMed Central

Perry, Cary; LeMay, Nancy; Rodway, Greg; Tracy, Allison; Galer, Joan

2005-01-01

Background This article describes the validation of an instrument to measure work group climate in public health organizations in developing countries. The instrument, the Work Group Climate Assessment Tool (WCA), was applied in Brazil, Mozambique, and Guinea to assess the intermediate outcomes of a program to develop leadership for performance improvement. Data were collected from 305 individuals in 42 work groups, who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Methods The WCA was initially validated using Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient and exploratory factor analysis. This article presents the results of a second validation study to refine the initial analyses to account for nested data, to provide item-level psychometrics, and to establish construct validity. Analyses included eigenvalue decomposition analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and validity and reliability analyses. Results This study confirmed the validity and reliability of the WCA across work groups with different demographic characteristics (gender, education, management level, and geographical location). The study showed that there is agreement between the theoretical construct of work climate and the items in the WCA tool across different populations. The WCA captures a single perception of climate rather than individual sub-scales of clarity, support, and challenge. Conclusion The WCA is useful for comparing the climates of different work groups, tracking the changes in climate in a single work group over time, or examining differences among individuals' perceptions of their work group climate. Application of the WCA before and after a leadership development process can help work groups hold a discussion about current climate and select a target for improvement. The WCA provides work groups with a tool to take ownership of their own group climate through a process that is simple and objective and that protects individual confidentiality. PMID:16223447

Numerical simulation of the effects of urban land-use changes on the local climate of multiple desert cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamal, S. M.; Huang, H. P.; Myint, S. W.

2016-12-01

This study quantifies the effect of urbanization on local climate by numerical simulations for multiple desert cities with a wide range of urban size, baseline climatology, and composition of land cover. The numerical experiments use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with multiple layers of nesting centered at a desert city. To extract the influence of land-use changes, twin runs are performed with each pair driven by the same time-varying lateral boundary conditions from reanalysis but different land surface conditions from Landsat observations for 1985 and 2010. The differences in the meteorological fields between the two runs are interpreted as the effects of land-use changes due to urbanization from 1985-2010. Using this strategy, simulations are carried out for five desert cities: (1) Las Vegas, United States, (2) Hotan, China, (3) Kharga, Egypt, (4) Beer Sheva, Israel, and (5) Jodhpur, India. The results of the simulations reveal a common pattern of the climatic effect of desert urbanization with nighttime warming but daytime cooling over areas where urbanization occurred. This effect is mainly confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detail of land cover in the surrounding non-urban areas. The pattern is similar in winter and summer. Exceptions to this pattern are found in a few cases in which the noisiness of local circulation, specifically monsoon and land-sea breeze, overwhelms the climatic signal induced by land-use changes. Although the local climatic responses to urbanization are qualitatively similar for the five desert cities, quantitative differences exist in the magnitudes of nighttime warming and daytime cooling. The possible reasons for those secondary differences are discussed.

How strong is the impact of the Indo-ocean dipole on the surface air temperature/sea level pressure anomalies in the Mediterranean region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polonsky, Alexander B.; Basharin, Dmitry V.

2017-04-01

The aim of this paper is to study the interannual climate variability over the Mediterranean region related to the Indo-ocean dipole (IOD) using the data of re-analyses, archival data and specialized numerical experiments. It is shown that the IOD does not impact essentially the anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) and sea level pressure (SLP) in the Mediterranean region. On average, the IOD-induced share of the SAT/SLP variance in the total variance of these fields in the Mediterranean region is smaller than 10% even in summer when it is at a maximum. However, the statistically significant IOD-induced SAT/SLP anomalies in the Mediterranean region are detectable. For definite IOD events the associated Mediterranean SAT anomalies can reach about 1 °C.

Atmospheric Research 2016 Technical Highlights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Platnick, Steven

2017-01-01

Atmospheric research in the Earth Sciences Division (610) consists of research and technology development programs dedicated to advancing knowledge and understanding of the atmosphere and its interaction with the climate of Earth. The Divisions goals are to improve understanding of the dynamics and physical properties of precipitation, clouds, and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, including the role of natural and anthropogenic trace species on the ozone balance in the stratosphere and the troposphere; and radiative properties of Earth's atmosphere and the influence of solar variability on the Earth's climate. Major research activities are carried out in the Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory, the Climate and Radiation Laboratory, the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Laboratory, and the Wallops Field Support Office. The overall scope of the research covers an end-to-end process, starting with the identification of scientific problems, leading to observation requirements for remote-sensing platforms, technology and retrieval algorithm development; followed by flight projects and satellite missions; and eventually, resulting in data processing, analyses of measurements, and dissemination from flight projects and missions. Instrument scientists conceive, design, develop, and implement ultraviolet, infrared, optical, radar, laser, and lidar technology to remotely sense the atmosphere. Members of the various laboratories conduct field measurements for satellite sensor calibration and data validation, and carry out numerous modeling activities. These modeling activities include climate model simulations, modeling the chemistry and transport of trace species on regional-to-global scales, cloud resolving models, and developing the next-generation Earth system models. Satellite missions, field campaigns, peer-reviewed publications, and successful proposals are essential at every stage of the research process to meeting our goals and maintaining leadership of the Earth Sciences Division in atmospheric science research. Figure 1.1 shows the 22-year record of peer-reviewed publications and proposals among the various laboratories.

Understandings of Climate Change Articulated by Swedish Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmqvist Olander, Mona; Olander, Clas

2017-01-01

This study investigated beliefs about climate change among Swedish secondary school students at the end of their K-12 education. An embedded mixed method approach was used to analyse 51 secondary school students' written responses to two questions: (1) What implies climate change? (2) What affects climate? A quantitative analysis of the responses…

The impact of climate change on America's forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Richard Birdsey

2000-01-01

This report documents trends and impacts of climate change on America's forests as required by the Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974. Recent research on the impact of climate and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on plant productivity is synthesized. Modeling analyses explore the potential impact of climate changes on forests, wood products, and carbon in...

Climate Change and the Canadian Higher Education System: An Institutional Policy Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Joseph; Bieler, Andrew; McKenzie, Marcia

2017-01-01

Climate change is a pressing concern. Higher education can address the challenge, but systematic analyses of climate change in education policy are sparse. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by reporting on how Canadian postsecondary educational institutions have engaged with climate change through policy actions. We used descriptive…

Climate change impacts on crop yield in the Euro-Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toreti, Andrea; Ceglar, Andrej; Dentener, Frank; Niemeyer, Stefan; Dosio, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Davide

2017-04-01

Agriculture is strongly influenced by climate variability, climate extremes and climate changes. Recent studies on past decades have identified and analysed the effects of climate variability and extremes on crop yields in the Euro-Mediterranean region. As these effects could be amplified in a changing climate context, it is essential to analyse available climate projections and investigate the possible impacts on European agriculture in terms of crop yield. In this study, five model runs from the Euro-CORDEX initiative under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) have been used. Climate model data have been bias corrected and then used to feed a mechanistic crop growth model. The crop model has been run under different settings to better sample the intrinsic uncertainties. Among the main results, it is worth to report a weak but significant and spatially homogeneous increase in potential wheat yield at mid-century (under a CO2 fertilisation effect scenario). While more complex changes seem to characterise potential maize yield, with large areas in the region showing a weak-to-moderate decrease.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-06-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth's hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-01-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Performance evaluation of a non-hydrostatic regional climate model over the Mediterranean/Black Sea area and climate projections for the XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, Paola; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Montesarchio, Myriam; Zollo, Alessandra Lucia

2013-04-01

In the framework of the Work Package 4 (Developing integrated tools for environmental assessment) of PERSEUS Project, high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes the Mediterranean and Black Seas, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate trend but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Assessment of temperature and precipitation over Mediterranean Area and Black Sea with non hydrostatic high resolution regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Montesarchio, M.; Zollo, A.; Bucchignani, E.

2012-12-01

In the framework of the Italian GEMINA Project (program of expansion and development of the Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change (CMCC), high resolution climate simulations have been performed, with the aim of furthering knowledge in the field of climate variability at regional scale, its causes and impacts. CMCC is a no profit centre whose aims are the promotion, research coordination and scientific activities in the field of climate changes. In this work, we show results of numerical simulation performed over a very wide area (13W-46E; 29-56N) at spatial resolution of 14 km, which includes all the Mediterranean Sea, using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. It is a non-hydrostatic model for the simulation of atmospheric processes, developed by the DWD-Germany for weather forecast services; successively, the model has been updated by the CLM-Community, in order to develop climatic applications. It is the only documented numerical model system in Europe designed for spatial resolutions down to 1 km with a range of applicability encompassing operational numerical weather prediction, regional climate modelling the dispersion of trace gases and aerosol and idealised studies and applicable in all regions of the world for a wide range of available climate simulations from global climate and NWP models. Different reasons justify the development of a regional model: the first is the increasing number of works in literature asserting that regional models have also the features to provide more detailed description of the climate extremes, that are often more important then their mean values for natural and human systems. The second one is that high resolution modelling shows adequate features to provide information for impact assessment studies. At CMCC, regional climate modelling is a part of an integrated simulation system and it has been used in different European and African projects to provide qualitative and quantitative evaluation of the hydrogeological and public health risks. A simulation covering the period 1971-2000 and driven by ERA40 reanalysis has been performed, in order to assess the capability of the model to reproduce the present climate, with "perfect boundary conditions". A comparison, in terms of 2-metre temperature and precipitation, with EOBS dataset will be shown and discussed, in order to analyze the capabilities in simulating the main features of the observed climate over a wide area, at high spatial resolution. Then, a comparison between the results of COSMO-CLM driven by the global model CMCC-MED (whose atmospheric component is ECHAM5) and by ERA40 will be provided for a characterization of the errors induced by the global model. Finally, climate projections on the examined area for the XXI century, considering the RCP4.5 emission scenario for the future, will be provided. In this work a special emphasis will be issued to the analysis of the capability to reproduce not only the average climate patterns but also extremes of the present and future climate, in terms of temperature, precipitation and wind.

Comments on `A Cautionary Note on the Interpretation of EOFs'.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behera, Swadhin K.; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Saji, Hameed N.; Yamagata, Toshio

2003-04-01

The misleading aspect of the statistical analyses used in Dommenget and Latif, which raises concerns on some of the reported climate modes, is demonstrated. Adopting simple statistical techniques, the physical existence of the Indian Ocean dipole mode is shown and then the limitations of varimax and regression analyses in capturing the climate mode are discussed.

Using NEON Data to Test and Refine Conceptual and Numerical Models of Soil Biogeochemical and Microbial Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weintraub, S. R.; Stanish, L.; Ayers, E.

2017-12-01

Recent conceptual and numerical models have proposed new mechanisms that underpin key biogeochemical phenomena, including soil organic matter storage and ecosystem response to nitrogen deposition. These models seek to explicitly capture the ecological links among biota, especially microbes, and their physical and chemical environment to represent belowground pools and fluxes and how they respond to perturbation. While these models put forth exciting new concepts, their broad predictive abilities are unclear as some have been developed and tested against only small or regional datasets. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) presents new opportunities to test and validate these models with multi-site data that span wide climatic, edaphic, and ecological gradients. NEON is measuring surface soil biogeochemical pools and fluxes along with diversity, abundance, and functional potential of soil microbiota at 47 sites distributed across the United States. This includes co-located measurements of soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations and stable isotopes, net nitrogen mineralization and nitrification rates, soil moisture, pH, microbial biomass, and community composition via 16S and ITS rRNA sequencing and shotgun metagenomic analyses. Early NEON data demonstrates that these wide edaphic and climatic gradients are related to changes in microbial community structure and functional potential, as well as element pools and process rates. Going forward, NEON's suite of standardized soil data has the potential to advance our understanding of soil communities and processes by allowing us to test the predictions of new soil biogeochemical frameworks and models. Here, we highlight several recently developed models that are ripe for this kind of data validation, and discuss key insights that may result. Further, we explore synergies with other networks, such as (i)LTER and (i)CZO, which may increase our ability to advance the frontiers of soil biogeochemical modeling.

The U.S. Geological Survey Climate Geo Data Portal: an integrated broker for climate and geospatial data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blodgett, David L.

2013-01-01

The increasing availability of downscaled climate projections and other data products that summarize or predict climate conditions, is making climate data use more common in research and management. Scientists and decisionmakers often need to construct ensembles and compare climate hindcasts and future projections for particular spatial areas. These tasks generally require an investigator to procure all datasets of interest en masse, integrate the various data formats and representations into commonly accessible and comparable formats, and then extract the subsets of the datasets that are actually of interest. This process can be challenging and time intensive due to data-transfer, -storage, and(or) -processing limits, or unfamiliarity with methods of accessing climate data. Data management for modeling and assessing the impacts of future climate conditions is also becoming increasingly expensive due to the size of the datasets. The Climate Geo Data Portal (http://cida.usgs.gov/climate/gdp/) addresses these limitations, making access to numerous climate datasets for particular areas of interest a simple and efficient task.

Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Post van der Burg, Max; Pearse, Aaron T.

2016-01-01

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once these issues are addressed, we contend that modeling efforts will better inform and quantify ecosystem services provided by wetlands to meet needs of waterbird conservation and broader societal interests such as flood control and water quality.

Mesoscale numerical modeling of meteorological events in a strong topographic gradient in the northeastern part of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda-Martinez, Luis F.; Carbajal, Noel

2009-08-01

A series of numerical experiments were carried out to study the effect of meteorological events such as warm and cold air masses on climatic features and variability of a understudied region with strong topographic gradients in the northeastern part of Mexico. We applied the mesoscale model MM5. We investigated the influence of soil moisture availability in the performance of the model under two representative events for winter and summer. The results showed that a better resolution in land use cover improved the agreement among observed and calculated data. The topography induces atmospheric circulation patterns that determine the spatial distribution of climate and seasonal behavior. The numerical experiments reveal regions favorable to forced convection on the eastern side of the mountain chains Eastern Sierra Madre and Sierra de Alvarez. These processes affect the vertical and horizontal structure of the meteorological variables along the topographic gradient.

The Construction of 3-d Neutral Density for Arbitrary Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riha, S.; McDougall, T. J.; Barker, P. M.

2014-12-01

The Neutral Density variable allows inference of water pathways from thermodynamic properties in the global ocean, and is therefore an essential component of global ocean circulation analysis. The widely used algorithm for the computation of Neutral Density yields accurate results for data sets which are close to the observed climatological ocean. Long-term numerical climate simulations, however, often generate a significant drift from present-day climate, which renders the existing algorithm inaccurate. To remedy this problem, new algorithms which operate on arbitrary data have been developed, which may potentially be used to compute Neutral Density during runtime of a numerical model.We review existing approaches for the construction of Neutral Density in arbitrary data sets, detail their algorithmic structure, and present an analysis of the computational cost for implementations on a single-CPU computer. We discuss possible strategies for the implementation in state-of-the-art numerical models, with a focus on distributed computing environments.

Probabilistic modeling of the indoor climates of residential buildings using EnergyPlus

DOE PAGES

Buechler, Elizabeth D.; Pallin, Simon B.; Boudreaux, Philip R.; ...

2017-04-25

The indoor air temperature and relative humidity in residential buildings significantly affect material moisture durability, HVAC system performance, and occupant comfort. Therefore, indoor climate data is generally required to define boundary conditions in numerical models that evaluate envelope durability and equipment performance. However, indoor climate data obtained from field studies is influenced by weather, occupant behavior and internal loads, and is generally unrepresentative of the residential building stock. Likewise, whole-building simulation models typically neglect stochastic variables and yield deterministic results that are applicable to only a single home in a specific climate. The

Climate and climate variability of the wind power resources in the Great Lakes region of the United States

Treesearch

X. Li; S. Zhong; X. Bian; W.E. Heilman

2010-01-01

The climate and climate variability of low-level winds over the Great Lakes region of the United States is examined using 30 year (1979-2008) wind records from the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), a three-dimensional, high-spatial and temporal resolution, and dynamically consistent climate data set. The analyses focus on spatial distribution...

Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boykoff, M. T.

2012-12-01

Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox views of science (a.k.a. scientific consensus), drive to fulfill the perceived desires of special interests (e.g. carbon-based industry), and/or exhilaration from self-perceived academic martyrdom and more general desires for notoriety. This species of climate celebrity has 'brought climate change home' as Rachel Slocum as put it, but in particular and paradoxical ways. Thus, this exploration is motivated by the interest to better understand how these interventions - sharing ideological kinship with the 'Wise Use movement' of the 1980s and 1990s - have contributed to (mis) perceptions and (mis) understandings that shape the spectrum of possibility for responses to contemporary climate challenges. Considerations of 'who speaks for climate' may be as important as formal climate governance architectures themselves to the long-term success or failure of efforts to take carbon out of the atmosphere or keep it out. The many 'actors' in the theatre of cultural politics - from climate scientists to business industry interests and ENGO (pro)activists to climate contrarians - are ultimately all members of a collective public citizenry. In short, a more informed public and better understood links between science, policy and media are in our collective self-interest.

LA-ICP-MS as Tool for Provenance Analyses in Arctic Marine Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wildau, Antje; Garbe-Schönberg, Dieter

2015-04-01

The hydraulic transport of sediments is a major geological process in terrestrial and marine systems and is responsible for the loss, redistribution and accumulation of minerals. Provenance analyses are a powerful tool for assessing the origin and dispersion of material in ancient and modern fluvial and marine sediments. Provenance-specific heavy minerals (e.g., zircon, rutile, tourmaline) can therefore be used to provide valuable information on the formation of ore deposits (placer deposits), and the reconstruction of paleogeography, hydrology, climate conditions and developments. The application of provenances analyses for the latter reason is of specific interest, since there is need for research on the progressing climate change, and heavy minerals represent good proxies for the evaluation of recent and past changes in the climate. The study of these fine particles provides information about potential regional or long distance transport paths, glacial / ice drift and current flows, freezing and melting events as well as depositional centers for the released sediments. Classic methods applied for provenance analyses are mapping of the presence / absence of diagnostic minerals, their grain size distribution, modal mineralogy and the analysis of variations in ratio of two or more heavy minerals. Electron microprobe has been established to discover changes in mineral chemistry of individual mineral phases, which can indicate fluctuations or differences in the provenance. All these methods bear the potential of high errors that lower the validity of the provenance analyses. These are for example the misclassification of mineral species due to undistinguishable optical properties or the limitations in the detection / variations of trace elements using the election microprobe. For this case study, marine sediments from the Arctic Ocean have been selected to test if LA-ICP-MS can be established as a key technique for precise and reliable provenance analyses. The Laptev Sea is known to be a "sea ice formation factory" and represents a perfect source area with numerous sediment loaded rivers draining into the Arctic Ocean. Mineral grains become trapped in the sea ice, which is transported to the Fram Strait, the outflow area of the Transpolar Drift System. Thus, minerals in the Fram Strait and in the Laptev Sea should have the same provenance. In both areas zircon, garnet, ilmenite, magnetite, tourmaline, pyroxene and amphibole were identified (amongst others). The vast majority of potential source areas and the widespread occurrence of these accessory and rock forming minerals result in the absolute need for a highly sensitive and precise method such as LA-ICP-MS. We report new data on the eligibility of selected heavy minerals for provenance analyses in the Arctic Ocean. Based on the individual trace element composition, REE-pattern and isotopic ratios, reflecting the conditions during formation, we report individual fingerprints for single mineral species. This enables us to allocate specific minerals from Fram Strait and from Laptev Sea to one provenance. Furthermore we evaluate the eligibility of different heavy minerals as a geochemical proxy in Arctic sediments for provenance analyses using LA-ICP-MS.

Communicating and countering misconceptions about the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, J.

2016-12-01

A number of studies have sought to quantify the level of agreement among climate scientists on human-caused global warming. This has included surveys of the scientific community, analyses of public declarations about climate change and analyses of peer-reviewed climate papers. This body of research has found that the level of consensus increases with expertise in climate science, culminating in 97% agreement among publishing climate scientists. Despite this robust finding, there is a significant gap between public perception of scientific consensus and the overwhelming agreement among climate scientists. This "consensus gap" is due in large part to a persistent, focused campaign to manufacture doubt about the scientific consensus by opponents of climate action. This campaign has employed non-expert spokespeople, magnified the small minority of dissenting scientists and exploited the journalistic norm of balance to generate the impression of an equal debate among scientists. Given the importance of perceived consensus as a "gateway belief" influencing a number of climate beliefs and attitudes, it is imperative that climate communicators close the consensus gap. This can be achieved by communicating the 97% consensus and explaining the techniques used to cast doubt on the consensus.

Human and climate impact on global riverine water and sediment fluxes - a distributed analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S.; Kettner, A.; Syvitski, J. P.

2013-05-01

Understanding riverine water and sediment dynamics is an important undertaking for both socially-relevant issues such as agriculture, water security and infrastructure management and for scientific analysis of climate, landscapes, river ecology, oceanography and other disciplines. Providing good quantitative and predictive tools in therefore timely particularly in light of predicted climate and landuse changes. The intensity and dynamics between man-made and climatic factors vary widely across the globe and are therefore hard to predict. Using sophisticated numerical models is therefore warranted. Here we use a distributed global riverine sediment and water discharge model (WBMsed) to simulate human and climate effect on our planet's large rivers.

Climate change, urbanization, and optimal long-term floodplain protection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Tingju; Lund, Jay R.; Jenkins, Marion W.; Marques, Guilherme F.; Ritzema, Randall S.

2007-06-01

This paper examines levee-protected floodplains and economic aspects of adaptation to increasing long-term flood risk due to urbanization and climate change. The lower American River floodplain in the Sacramento, California, metropolitan area is used as an illustration to explore the course of optimal floodplain protection decisions over long periods. A dynamic programming model is developed and suggests economically desirable adaptations for floodplain levee systems given simultaneous changes in flood climate and urban land values. Economic engineering optimization analyses of several climate change and urbanization scenarios are made. Sensitivity analyses consider assumptions about future values of floodplain land and damageable property along with the discount rate. Methodological insights and policy lessons are drawn from modeling results, reflecting the joint effects and relationships that climate, economic costs, and regional economic growth can have on floodplain levee planning decisions.

Multilevel multi-informant structure of the authoritative school climate survey.

PubMed

Konold, Timothy; Cornell, Dewey; Huang, Francis; Meyer, Patrick; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan

2014-09-01

The Authoritative School Climate Survey was designed to provide schools with a brief assessment of 2 key characteristics of school climate--disciplinary structure and student support--that are hypothesized to influence 2 important school climate outcomes--student engagement and prevalence of teasing and bullying in school. The factor structure of these 4 constructs was examined with exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses in a statewide sample of 39,364 students (Grades 7 and 8) attending 423 schools. Notably, the analyses used a multilevel structural approach to model the nesting of students in schools for purposes of evaluating factor structure, demonstrating convergent and concurrent validity and gauging the structural invariance of concurrent validity coefficients across gender. These findings provide schools with a core group of school climate measures guided by authoritative discipline theory. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wartenburger, Richard; Hirschi, Martin; Donat, Markus G.; Greve, Peter; Pitman, Andy J.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-09-01

This article extends a previous study Seneviratne et al. (2016) to provide regional analyses of changes in climate extremes as a function of projected changes in global mean temperature. We introduce the DROUGHT-HEAT Regional Climate Atlas, an interactive tool to analyse and display a range of well-established climate extremes and water-cycle indices and their changes as a function of global warming. These projections are based on simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A selection of example results are presented here, but users can visualize specific indices of interest using the online tool. This implementation enables a direct assessment of regional climate changes associated with global mean temperature targets, such as the 2 and 1.5° limits agreed within the 2015 Paris Agreement.

An Algorithm For Climate-Quality Atmospheric Profiling Continuity From EOS Aqua To Suomi-NPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncet, J. L.

2015-12-01

We will present results from an algorithm that is being developed to produce climate-quality atmospheric profiling earth system data records (ESDRs) for application to hyperspectral sounding instrument data from Suomi-NPP, EOS Aqua, and other spacecraft. The current focus is on data from the S-NPP Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments as well as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on EOS Aqua. The algorithm development at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) has common heritage with the optimal estimation (OE) algorithm operationally processing S-NPP data in the Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS), but the ESDR algorithm has a flexible, modular software structure to support experimentation and collaboration and has several features adapted to the climate orientation of ESDRs. Data record continuity benefits from the fact that the same algorithm can be applied to different sensors, simply by providing suitable configuration and data files. The radiative transfer component uses an enhanced version of optimal spectral sampling (OSS) with updated spectroscopy, treatment of emission that is not in local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), efficiency gains with "global" optimal sampling over all channels, and support for channel selection. The algorithm is designed for adaptive treatment of clouds, with capability to apply "cloud clearing" or simultaneous cloud parameter retrieval, depending on conditions. We will present retrieval results demonstrating the impact of a new capability to perform the retrievals on sigma or hybrid vertical grid (as opposed to a fixed pressure grid), which particularly affects profile accuracy over land with variable terrain height and with sharp vertical structure near the surface. In addition, we will show impacts of alternative treatments of regularization of the inversion. While OE algorithms typically implement regularization by using background estimates from climatological or numerical forecast data, those sources are problematic for climate applications due to the imprint of biases from past climate analyses or from model error.

The PIRATA Observing System in the Tropical Atlantic: Enhancements and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, Fabrice; Araujo, Moacyr; Bourlès, Bernard; Brandt, Peter; Campos, Edmo; Giordani, Hervé; Lumpkin, Rick; McPhaden, Michael J.; Nobre, Paulo; Saravanan, Ramalingam

2017-04-01

PIRATA (Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic) is a multinational program established to improve our knowledge and understanding of ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic, a region that strongly influences the regional hydro-climates and, consequently, the economies of the regions bordering the Atlantic Ocean (e.g. West Africa, North-Eastern Brazil, the West Indies and the United States). PIRATA is motivated not only by fundamental scientific questions but also by societal needs for improved prediction of climatic variability and its impacts. PIRATA, initiated in 1997, is based around an array of moored buoys providing meteorological and oceanographic measurements transmitted in real-time, disseminated via GTS and Global Data Servers. Then, through yearly mooring maintenance, recorded high frequency data are collected and calibrated. The dedicated cruises of yearly maintenance allow complementary acquisition of a large number of measurements along repeated ship track lines and also provide platforms for deployments of other components of the observing system. Several kinds of operations are carried out in collaboration with other international programs. PIRATA provides invaluable data for numerous and varied applications, among which are analyses of climate variability on intraseasonal-to-decadal timescales, equatorial dynamics, mixed-layer temperature and salinity budgets, air-sea fluxes, data assimilation, and weather and climate forecasts. PIRATA is now 20 years old, well established and recognized as the backbone of the tropical Atlantic sustained observing system. Several enhancements have been achieved during recent years, including progressive updating of mooring systems and sensors, also in collaborations with and as a contribution to other programs (such as EU PREFACE and AtlantOS). Recent major accomplishments in terms of air-sea exchanges and climate predictability will be highlighted in this presentation. Future perspectives for the network will also be discussed in the framework of a sustainable Atlantic Ocean Observing System.

Climatic vs. tectonic control on glacial relief

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasicek, Günther; Herman, Frederic; Robl, Jörg

2017-04-01

The limiting effect of a climatically-induced glacial buzz-saw on the height of mountain ranges has been extensively discussed in the geosciences. The buzz-saw concept assumes that solely climate controls the amount of topography present above the equilibrium line altitude (ELA), while the rock uplift rate plays no relevant role. This view is supported by analyses of hypsometric patterns in orogens worldwide. Furthermore, numerical landscape evolution models show that glacial erosion modifies the hypsometry and reduces the overall relief of mountain landscapes. However, such models often do not incorporate tectonic uplift and can only simulate glacial erosion over a limited amount of time, typically one or several glacial cycles. Constraints on glacial end-member landscapes from analytical, time-independent models are widely lacking. Here we present a steady-state solution for a glacier equilibrium profile in an active orogen modified from the mathematical conception presented by Headley et al. (2012). Our approach combines a glacial erosion law with the shallow ice approximation, specifically the formulations of ice sliding and deformation velocities and ice flux, to calculate ice surface and bed topography from prescribed specific mass balance and rock uplift rate. This solution allows the application of both linear and non-linear erosion laws and can be iteratively fitted to a predefined gradient of specific mass balance with elevation. We tested the influence of climate (fixed rock uplift rate, different ELAs) and tectonic forcing (fixed ELA, different rock uplift rates) on steady-state relief. Our results show that, similar to fluvial orogens, both climate and rock uplift rate exert a strong influence on glacial relief and that the relation among rock uplift rate and relief is governed by the glacial erosion law. This finding can provide an explanation for the presence of high relief in high latitudes. Headley, R.M., Roe, G., Hallet, B., 2012. Glacier longitudinal profiles in regions of active uplift. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 317-318, 354-362.

Developing the Second Generation CMORPH: A Prototype

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Pingping; Joyce, Robert

2014-05-01

A prototype system of the second generation CMORPH is being developed at NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce global analyses of 30-min precipitation on a 0.05deg lat/lon grid over the entire globe from pole to pole through integration of information from satellite observations as well as numerical model simulations. The second generation CMORPH is built upon the Kalman Filter based CMORPH algorithm of Joyce and Xie (2011). Inputs to the system include rainfall and snowfall rate retrievals from passive microwave (PMW) measurements aboard all available low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, estimates derived from infrared (IR) observations of geostationary (GEO) as well as LEO platforms, and precipitation simulations from numerical global models. First, precipitation estimation / retrievals from various sources are mapped onto a global grid of 0.05deg lat/lon and calibrated against a common reference field to ensure consistency in their precipitation rate PDF structures. The motion vectors for the precipitating cloud systems are then defined using information from both satellite IR observations and precipitation fields generated by the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). To this end, motion vectors are first computed from CFSR hourly precipitation fields through cross-correlation analysis of consecutive hourly precipitation fields on the global T382 (~35 km) grid. In a similar manner, separate processing is also performed on satellite IR-based precipitation estimates to derive motion vectors from observations. A blended analysis of precipitating cloud motion vectors is then constructed through the combination of CFSR and satellite-derived vectors with an objective analysis technique. Fine resolution mapped PMW precipitation retrievals are then separately propagated along the motion vectors from their respective observation times to the target analysis time from both forward and backward directions. The CMORPH high resolution precipitation analyses are finally constructed through the combination of propagated PMW retrievals with the IR based estimates for the target analysis time. This Kalman Filter based CMORPH processing is performed for rainfall and snowfall fields separately with the same motion vectors. Experiments have been conducted for two periods of two months each, July - August 2009, and January - February 2010, to explore the development of an optimal algorithm that generates global precipitation for summer and winter situations. Preliminary results demonstrated technical feasibility to construct global rainfall and snowfall analyses through the integration of information from multiple sources. More work is underway to refine various technical components of the system for operational applications of the system. Detailed results will be reported at the EGU meeting.

Ecological and methodological drivers of species' distribution and phenology responses to climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; O'Connor, Mary I; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Schoeman, David S; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael T; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Richardson, Anthony J

2016-04-01

Climate change is shifting species' distribution and phenology. Ecological traits, such as mobility or reproductive mode, explain variation in observed rates of shift for some taxa. However, estimates of relationships between traits and climate responses could be influenced by how responses are measured. We compiled a global data set of 651 published marine species' responses to climate change, from 47 papers on distribution shifts and 32 papers on phenology change. We assessed the relative importance of two classes of predictors of the rate of change, ecological traits of the responding taxa and methodological approaches for quantifying biological responses. Methodological differences explained 22% of the variation in range shifts, more than the 7.8% of the variation explained by ecological traits. For phenology change, methodological approaches accounted for 4% of the variation in measurements, whereas 8% of the variation was explained by ecological traits. Our ability to predict responses from traits was hindered by poor representation of species from the tropics, where temperature isotherms are moving most rapidly. Thus, the mean rate of distribution change may be underestimated by this and other global syntheses. Our analyses indicate that methodological approaches should be explicitly considered when designing, analysing and comparing results among studies. To improve climate impact studies, we recommend that (1) reanalyses of existing time series state how the existing data sets may limit the inferences about possible climate responses; (2) qualitative comparisons of species' responses across different studies be limited to studies with similar methodological approaches; (3) meta-analyses of climate responses include methodological attributes as covariates; and (4) that new time series be designed to include the detection of early warnings of change or ecologically relevant change. Greater consideration of methodological attributes will improve the accuracy of analyses that seek to quantify the role of climate change in species' distribution and phenology changes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buechler, Elizabeth D.; Pallin, Simon B.; Boudreaux, Philip R.

The indoor air temperature and relative humidity in residential buildings significantly affect material moisture durability, HVAC system performance, and occupant comfort. Therefore, indoor climate data is generally required to define boundary conditions in numerical models that evaluate envelope durability and equipment performance. However, indoor climate data obtained from field studies is influenced by weather, occupant behavior and internal loads, and is generally unrepresentative of the residential building stock. Likewise, whole-building simulation models typically neglect stochastic variables and yield deterministic results that are applicable to only a single home in a specific climate. The

Physiological basis of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitney, James E.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Bunnell, David B.; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cooke, Steven J.; Eliason, Erika J.; Rogers, Mark W.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2016-01-01

Global climate change is altering freshwater ecosystems and affecting fish populations and communities. Underpinning changes in fish distribution and assemblage-level responses to climate change are individual-level physiological constraints. In this review, we synthesize the mechanistic effects of climate change on neuroendocrine, cardiorespiratory, immune, osmoregulatory, and reproductive systems of freshwater and diadromous fishes. Observed climate change effects on physiological systems are varied and numerous, including exceedance of critical thermal tolerances, decreased cardiorespiratory performance, compromised immune function, and altered patterns of individual reproductive investment. However, effects vary widely among and within species because of species, population, and even sex-specific differences in sensitivity and resilience and because of habitat-specific variation in the magnitude of climate-related environmental change. Research on the interactive effects of climate change with other environmental stressors across a broader range of fish diversity is needed to further our understanding of climate change effects on fish physiology.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Does Climate Literacy Matter? A Case Study of U.S. Students' Level of Concern about Anthropogenic Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bedford, Daniel

2016-01-01

Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…

Evaluation of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes in the Salt River Basin, Missouri, United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes at the watershed scale is needed by land managers and policy makers to properly assess potential adaptation strategies. While numerous studies have been conducted on hydrologic processes in the Midwest, only a few have analyzed the l...

Software Simplifies the Sharing of Numerical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2014-01-01

To ease the sharing of climate models with university students, Goddard Space Flight Center awarded SBIR funding to Reston, Virginia-based Parabon Computation Inc., a company that specializes in cloud computing. The firm developed a software program capable of running climate models over the Internet, and also created an online environment for people to collaborate on developing such models.

Ecosystem productivity and the impact of climate change

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Martha Nungesser

2000-01-01

Earlier analyses of the supply and demand of timber assumed the continuation of historical climate and thus, did not explicitly incorporate factors such as temperature or precipitation into the projections of timber growth. Forests are adapted to local climates and changes in these climates are likely to impact future forest growth and timber outputs. Within the...

Chapter 14: The impacts of climate change on forestry

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2007-01-01

The quantitative analysis of the impact of future climate change on forests and forestry began in the 1980s, motivated by research in the atmospheric sciences and concerns about the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. These analyses suggested that forest ecosystems would be seriously impacted by climate change, with consequent impacts on the...

Development and Validation of an Instrument for Assessing Climate Change Knowledge and Perceptions: The Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Scott L.; McNeal, Karen S.

2013-01-01

The Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) was developed to measure knowledge and perceptions of global climate change, while also considering information sources that respondents 'trust.' The CSS was drafted using a three-stage approach: development of salient scales, writing individual items, and field testing and analyses. Construct validity and…

Combined impacts due to deforestation and the forest fires in the Amazonia and the global climate change on the future climate of South America: a modelling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, G. S.; Cardoso, M. F.; Sanches, M. B.; Alexandre, F. F.

2014-12-01

Since the late 1980s a large number of numerical experiments with atmospheric general circulation models has been used to assess the impacts of deforestation on global and regional climate, and one of the main motivations is the Amazon rainforest. In the same way, in the last decade several studies have shown that a higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere could lead changes in climate in the Amazon region. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, fire and the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration may combine to affect the climate in Amazonia during this century. For the projection of land use was considered a spatially explicit land use scenario from Aguiar et al. (2013). The scenario was built using LuccME generic modelling framework and the potential of change considering the proximity to previously deforested areas and also spatial drivers (roads and protected areas). In order to quantify the response of Brazilian Earth System Model, with INLAND-IBIS surface model, to climate change, deforestation and forest fire we performed a suite of simulations in two main categories: 1) the model was running under historical and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration, and 2) the model was forced by the same configuration in 1 but also considering the effects of deforestation and forest fire in Amazon. In summary, the most important changes occur in the East/Northeast and South of the Amazonia and are more evident when are considered all effects (climate change, deforestation and fire). The results show warmer near-surface air temperature in all cases compared to the control case. This relative warming of the deforested land surface is consistent with the reduction in evapotranspiration, the lower leaf area and the lower surface roughness length. There is a reduction in annual precipitation in both cases mainly over eastern/northeastern Amazonia. The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season (June-November) in both cases, and there is an increase in dry season length that is more evident when are considered all effects. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation and climate change resulting from global warming may lead to important impacts that add considerably to the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems in the region.

Empirical analyses of plant-climate relationships for the western United States

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Nicholas L. Crookston; Marcus V. Warwell; Jeffrey S. Evans

2006-01-01

The Random Forests multiple-regression tree was used to model climate profiles of 25 biotic communities of the western United States and nine of their constituent species. Analyses of the communities were based on a gridded sample of ca. 140,000 points, while those for the species used presence-absence data from ca. 120,000 locations. Independent variables included 35...

Analytically based forward and inverse models of fluvial landscape evolution during temporally continuous climatic and tectonic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, Liran; Petit, Carole

2017-04-01

Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rate of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and it changes the fluvial response time that controls the rate at which tectonically and climatically induced slope breaks are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the fluvial response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hinders our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. An analytic solution of the stream power model during general tectonic and climatic histories gives rise to a new definition of the fluvial response time. The analytic solution offers accurate predictions for landscape evolution that are hard to achieve with classical numerical schemes and thus can be used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of numerical landscape evolution models. The analytic solution together with the new definition of the fluvial response time allow inferring either the tectonic history or the climatic history from river long profiles by using simple linear inversion schemes. Analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency (10-100 kyr) climatic oscillations with respect to the response time, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints in the upstream reaches of fluvial channels. Linear inversion schemes are applied to the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps, where tributary long profiles are used to recover the incision rate history of the Tinee main trunk. Inversion results show periodic, high incision rate pulses, which are correlated with interglacial episodes. Similar incision rate histories are recovered for the past 100 kyr when assuming constant climatic conditions or periodic climatic oscillations, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

Comparison of Grid Nudging and Spectral Nudging Techniques for Dynamical Climate Downscaling within the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, X.; Chen, L.; Ma, Z.

2010-12-01

Climate downscaling has been an active research and application area in the past several decades focusing on regional climate studies. Dynamical downscaling, in addition to statistical methods, has been widely used in downscaling as the advanced modern numerical weather and regional climate models emerge. The utilization of numerical models enables that a full set of climate variables are generated in the process of downscaling, which are dynamically consistent due to the constraints of physical laws. While we are generating high resolution regional climate, the large scale climate patterns should be retained. To serve this purpose, nudging techniques, including grid analysis nudging and spectral nudging, have been used in different models. There are studies demonstrating the benefit and advantages of each nudging technique; however, the results are sensitive to many factors such as nudging coefficients and the amount of information to nudge to, and thus the conclusions are controversy. While in a companion work of developing approaches for quantitative assessment of the downscaled climate, in this study, the two nudging techniques are under extensive experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Using the same model provides fair comparability. Applying the quantitative assessments provides objectiveness of comparison. Three types of downscaling experiments were performed for one month of choice. The first type is serving as a base whereas the large scale information is communicated through lateral boundary conditions only; the second is using the grid analysis nudging; and the third is using spectral nudging. Emphases are given to the experiments of different nudging coefficients and nudging to different variables in the grid analysis nudging; while in spectral nudging, we focus on testing the nudging coefficients, different wave numbers on different model levels to nudge.

Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Ocean Active Upper-Layer Heat Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byshev, Vladimir I.; Neiman, Victor G.; Anisimov, Mikhail V.; Gusev, Anatoly V.; Serykh, Ilya V.; Sidorova, Alexandra N.; Figurkin, Alexander L.; Anisimov, Ivan M.

2017-07-01

Spatial patterns in multi-decadal variability in upper ocean heat content for the last 60 years are examined using a numerical model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russia (INM Model) and sea water temperature-salinity data from the World Ocean Database (in: Levitus, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66, U.S. Wash.: Gov. Printing Office, 2009). Both the model and the observational data show that the heat content of the Active Upper Layer (AUL) in particular regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans have experienced prominent simultaneous variations on multi-decadal (25-35 years) time scales. These variations are compared earlier revealed climatic alternations in the Northern Atlantic region during the last century (Byshev et al. in Doklady Earth Sci 438(2):887-892, 2011). We found that from the middle of 1970s to the end of 1990s the AUL heat content decreased in several oceanic regions, while the mean surface temperature increased on Northern Hemisphere continents according to IPCC (in: Stocker et al. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). This means that the climate-forcing effect of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in certain energy-active areas determines not only local climatic processes, but also have an influence on global-scale climate phenomena. Here we show that specific regional features of the AUL thermal structure are in a good agreement with climatic conditions on the adjacent continents. Further, the ocean AUL in the five distinctive regions identified in our study have resumed warming in the first decade of this century. By analogy inference from previous climate scenarios, this may signal the onset of more continental climate over mainlands.

Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

Sensitivity of bud burst in key tree species in the UK to recent climate variability and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abernethy, Rachel; Cook, Sally; Hemming, Deborah; McCarthy, Mark

2017-04-01

Analysing the relationship between the changing climate of the UK and the spatial and temporal distribution of spring bud burst plays an important role in understanding ecosystem functionality and predicting future phenological trends. The location and timing of bud burst of eleven species of trees alongside climatic factors such as, temperature, precipitation and hours of sunshine (photoperiod) were used to investigate: i. which species' bud burst timing experiences the greatest impact from a changing climate, ii. which climatic factor has the greatest influence on the timing of bud burst, and iii. whether the location of bud burst is influenced by climate variability. Winter heatwave duration was also analysed as part of an investigation into the relationship between temperature trends of a specific winter period and the following spring events. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical analysis tools were used to visualise spatial patterns and to analyse the phenological and climate data through regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA) tests. Where there were areas that showed a strong positive or negative relationship between phenology and climate, satellite imagery was used to calculate a Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a Leaf Area Index (LAI) to further investigate the relationships found. It was expected that in the north of the UK, where bud burst tends to occur later in the year than in the south, that the bud bursts would begin to occur earlier due to increasing temperatures and increased hours of sunshine. However, initial results show that for some species, the bud burst timing tends to remain or become later in the year. Interesting results will be found when investigating the statistical significance between the changing location of the bud bursts and each climatic factor.

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

Reallocation in modal aerosol models: impacts on predicting aerosol radiative effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korhola, T.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laaksonen, A.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Romakkaniemi, S.

2013-08-01

In atmospheric modelling applications the aerosol particle size distribution is commonly represented by modal approach, in which particles in different size ranges are described with log-normal modes within predetermined size ranges. Such method includes numerical reallocation of particles from a mode to another for example during particle growth, leading to potentially artificial changes in the aerosol size distribution. In this study we analysed how this reallocation affects climatologically relevant parameters: cloud droplet number concentration, aerosol-cloud interaction coefficient and light extinction coefficient. We compared these parameters between a modal model with and without reallocation routines, and a high resolution sectional model that was considered as a reference model. We analysed the relative differences of the parameters in different experiments that were designed to cover a wide range of dynamic aerosol processes occurring in the atmosphere. According to our results, limiting the allowed size ranges of the modes and the following numerical remapping of the distribution by reallocation, leads on average to underestimation of cloud droplet number concentration (up to 100%) and overestimation of light extinction (up to 20%). The analysis of aerosol first indirect effect is more complicated as the ACI parameter can be either over- or underestimated by the reallocating model, depending on the conditions. However, for example in the case of atmospheric new particle formation events followed by rapid particle growth, the reallocation can cause around average 10% overestimation of the ACI parameter. Thus it is shown that the reallocation affects the ability of a model to estimate aerosol climate effects accurately, and this should be taken into account when using and developing aerosol models.

An overview of historical channel adjustment and selected hydraulic values in the Lower Sabine and Lower Brazos River Basins, Texas and Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heitmuller, Franklin T.; Greene, Lauren E.; John D. Gordon, John D.

2010-01-01

The Sabine and Brazos are alluvial rivers; alluvial rivers are dynamic systems that adjust their geometry in response to changes in streamflow (discharge) and sediment load. In fluvial geomorphology, the term 'channel adjustment' refers to river channel changes in three geometric dimensions: (1) channel slope (profile); (2) the outline or shape, such as meandering or braided, projected on a horizontal plane (planform); and (3) cross-sectional form (shape). The primary objective of the study was to investigate how the channel morphology of these rivers has changed in response to reservoirs and other anthropogenic disturbances that have altered streamflow and sediment load. The results of this study are expected to aid ecological assessments in the lower Sabine River and lower Brazos River Basins for the Texas Instream Flow Program. Starting in the 1920s, several dams have been constructed on the Sabine and Brazos Rivers and their tributaries, and numerous bridges have been built and sometimes replaced multiple times, which have changed the natural flow regime and reduced or altered sediment loads downstream. Changes in channel geometry over time can reduce channel conveyance and thus streamflow, which can have adverse ecological effects. Channel attributes including cross-section form, channel slope, and planform change were evaluated to learn how each river's morphology changed over many years in response to natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Climate has large influence on the hydrologic regimes of the lower Sabine and lower Brazos River Basins. Equally important as climate in controlling the hydrologic regime of the two river systems are numerous reservoirs that regulate downstream flow releases. The hydrologic regimes of the two rivers and their tributaries reflect the combined influences of climate, flow regulation, and drainage area. Historical and contemporary cross-sectional channel geometries at 15 streamflow-gaging stations in the lower Sabine and lower Brazos River Basins were evaluated. An in-depth discussion of results from streamflow-gaging station 08028500 Sabine River near Bon Weir, Tex., is featured here as an example of the analyses that were done at each station.

Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldón, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Inés Mínguez, M.; Dosio, Alessandro; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2013-04-01

The objective of this work is to generate and analyse adaptation strategies to cope with impacts of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Andalusia (Southern Spain) in a semi-arid environment, with focus on extreme events. In Andalusia, located in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, cereals crops may be affected by the increase in average temperatures, the precipitation variability and the possible extreme events. Those impacts may cause a decrease in both water availability and the pollination rate resulting on a decrease in yield and the farmer's profitability. Designing local and regional adaptation strategies to reduce these negative impacts is necessary. This study is focused on irrigated maize on five Andalusia locations. The Andalusia Network of Agricultural Trials (RAEA in Spanish) provided the experimental crop and soil data, and the observed climate data were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia and the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET in Spanish). The data for future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were generated by Dosio and Paruolo (2011) and Dosio et al. (2012), who corrected the bias of ENSEMBLES data for maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. ENSEMBLES data were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Crop models considered were CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, and CropSyst (Stockle et al., 2003). Those crop models were applied only on locations were calibration and validation were done. The effects of the adaptations strategies, such as changes in sowing dates or choice of cultivar, were evaluated regarding water consumption; changes in phenological dates were also analysed to compare with occurrence of extreme events of maximum temperature. These events represent a threat on summer crops due to the reduction on the duration of grain filling period with the consequent reduction in yield (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011) and with the supraoptimal temperatures in pollination. Finally, results of simulated impacts and adaptations were compared to previous studies done without bias correction of climatic projections, at low resolution and with previous versions of crop models (Mínguez et al., 2007). This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI) of EU and is financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Jones, C.A., and J.R. Kiniry. 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation model of maize growth and development. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station. Mínguez, M.I., M. Ruiz-ramos, C.H. Díaz-Ambrona, and M. Quemada. 2007. First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Change 81: 343-355. Ruiz-Ramos, M., E. Sanchez, C. Galllardo, and M.I. Minguez. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11: 3275-3291. Stockle, C.O., M. Donatelli, and R. Nelson. 2003. CropSyst , a cropping systems simulation model. European Journal of Agronomy18: 289-307.

Shifts in climate suitability for wine production as a result of climate change in a temperate climate wine region of Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irimia, Liviu Mihai; Patriche, Cristian Valeriu; Quenol, Hervé; Sfîcă, Lucian; Foss, Chris

2018-02-01

Climate change is causing important shifts in the suitability of regions for wine production. Fine scale mapping of these shifts helps us to understand the evolution of vineyard climates, and to find solutions through viticultural adaptation. The aim of this study is to identify and map the structural and spatial shifts that occurred in the climatic suitability for wine production of the Cotnari wine growing region (Romania) between 1961 and 2013. Discontinuities in trends of temperature were identified, and the averages and trends of 13 climatic parameters for the 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2013 time periods were analysed. Using the averages of these climatic parameters, climate suitability for wine production was calculated at a resolution of 30 m and mapped for each time period, and the changes analysed. The results indicate shifts in the area's historic climatic profile, due to an increase of heliothermal resources and precipitation constancy. The area's climate suitability for wine production was modified by the loss of climate suitability for white table wines, sparkling wines and wine for distillates; shifts in suitability to higher altitudes by about 67 m, and a 48.6% decrease in the area suitable for quality white wines; and the occurrence of suitable climates for red wines at lower altitudes. The study showed that climate suitability for wine production has a multi-level spatial structure, with classes requiring a cooler climate being located at a higher altitude than those requiring a warmer climate. Climate change has therefore resulted in the shift of climate suitability classes for wine production to higher altitudes.

Projected climate change impacts in rainfall erosivity over Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change projections and historical analyses have shown alterations in global precipitation dynamics, and therefore, it is also expected that there will be associated changes to soil erosion rates. The impacts of climate change on soil erosion may bring serious economic, social, and environmen...

GIS-Mapping and Statistical Analyses to Identify Climate-Vulnerable Communities and Populations Exposed to Superfund Sites

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change-related cumulative health risks are expected to be disproportionately greater for overburdened communities, due to differential proximity and exposures to chemical sources and flood zones. Communities and populations vulnerable to climate change-associated impacts ...

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change

PubMed Central

Jezkova, Tereza

2016-01-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. PMID:27881748

Rates of change in climatic niches in plant and animal populations are much slower than projected climate change.

PubMed

Jezkova, Tereza; Wiens, John J

2016-11-30

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity. A critical question is: can species undergo niche shifts of sufficient speed and magnitude to persist within their current geographic ranges? Here, we analyse niche shifts among populations within 56 plant and animal species using time-calibrated trees from phylogeographic studies. Across 266 phylogeographic groups analysed, rates of niche change were much slower than rates of projected climate change (mean difference > 200 000-fold for temperature variables). Furthermore, the absolute niche divergence among populations was typically lower than the magnitude of projected climate change over the next approximately 55 years for relevant variables, suggesting the amount of change needed to persist may often be too great, even if these niche shifts were instantaneous. Rates were broadly similar between plants and animals, but especially rapid in some arthropods, birds and mammals. Rates for temperature variables were lower at lower latitudes, further suggesting that tropical species may be especially vulnerable to climate change. © 2016 The Author(s).

Pliocene climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Caballero-Gill, R. P.

2010-01-01

The Pliocene Epoch, 5.3 Ma to 1.8 Ma, was a time when paleoclimate conditions ranged from very warm, equable climates (on a global scale), rhythmically varying every 40,000 years, to high-amplitude glacial-interglacial cycles that led to the “Ice Ages” of the Pleistocene. Evidence for paleoclimate conditions comes from fossils, geochemical data, and the integration of these data with sophisticated numerical models. The Pliocene exhibited a range in atmospheric CO2 concentrations with highs estimated to be at most ~425 ppm in the early Pliocene followed by overall decrease toward preindustrial levels by the close of the Pliocene Epoch (Pagani et al. 2010). Sea levels were estimated to be 25m higher than present day and the size and position of ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were decidedly different from today. On the other hand, by the mid-Pliocene, the majority of fauna and flora as well as continental configurations were basically the same as today. Man’s ability to adapt to or mitigate the effects of future climate require a deep understanding of the rates and magnitude of future climate change on an ever finer scale. Since conditions projected for the end of this century are not in the human experience, we depend upon a combination of numerical climate models and comparison to analogous conditions in the geologic past. The Pliocene contains what might be the closest analog to climate conditions expected in the near future, and therefore understanding the Pliocene is not only of academic interest but essential for human adaptation.

Numerical Issues Associated with Compensating and Competing Processes in Climate Models: an Example from ECHAM-HAM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai

2013-06-26

The purpose of this paper is to draw attention to the need for appropriate numerical techniques to represent process interactions in climate models. In two versions of the ECHAM-HAM model, different time integration methods are used to solve the sulfuric acid (H2SO4) gas evolution equation, which lead to substantially different results in the H2SO4 gas concentration and the aerosol nucleation rate. Using convergence tests and sensitivity simulations performed with various time stepping schemes, it is confirmed that numerical errors in the second model version are significantly smaller than those in version one. The use of sequential operator splitting in combinationmore » with long time step is identified as the main reason for the large systematic biases in the old model. The remaining errors in version two in the nucleation rate, related to the competition between condensation and nucleation, have a clear impact on the simulated concentration of cloud condensation nuclei in the lower troposphere. These errors can be significantly reduced by employing an implicit solver that handles production, condensation and nucleation at the same time. Lessons learned in this work underline the need for more caution when treating multi-time-scale problems involving compensating and competing processes, a common occurrence in current climate models.« less

Test Driven Development of a Parameterized Ice Sheet Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clune, T.

2011-12-01

Test driven development (TDD) is a software development methodology that offers many advantages over traditional approaches including reduced development and maintenance costs, improved reliability, and superior design quality. Although TDD is widely accepted in many software communities, the suitability to scientific software is largely undemonstrated and warrants a degree of skepticism. Indeed, numerical algorithms pose several challenges to unit testing in general, and TDD in particular. Among these challenges are the need to have simple, non-redundant closed-form expressions to compare against the results obtained from the implementation as well as realistic error estimates. The necessity for serial and parallel performance raises additional concerns for many scientific applicaitons. In previous work I demonstrated that TDD performed well for the development of a relatively simple numerical model that simulates the growth of snowflakes, but the results were anecdotal and of limited relevance to far more complex software components typical of climate models. This investigation has now been extended by successfully applying TDD to the implementation of a substantial portion of a new parameterized ice sheet component within a full climate model. After a brief introduction to TDD, I will present techniques that address some of the obstacles encountered with numerical algorithms. I will conclude with some quantitative and qualitative comparisons against climate components developed in a more traditional manner.

Coastal and wetland ecosystems of the Chesapeake Bay watershed: Applying palynology to understand impacts of changing climate, sea level, and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, Debra A.; Bernhardt, Christopher E.; Hupp, Cliff R.; Newell, Wayne L.

2015-01-01

The mid-Atlantic region and Chesapeake Bay watershed have been influenced by fluctuations in climate and sea level since the Cretaceous, and human alteration of the landscape began ~12,000 years ago, with greatest impacts since colonial times. Efforts to devise sustainable management strategies that maximize ecosystem services are integrating data from a range of scientific disciplines to understand how ecosystems and habitats respond to different climatic and environmental stressors. Palynology has played an important role in improving understanding of the impact of changing climate, sea level, and land use on local and regional vegetation. Additionally, palynological analyses have provided biostratigraphic control for surficial mapping efforts and documented agricultural activities of both Native American populations and European colonists. This field trip focuses on sites where palynological analyses have supported efforts to understand the impacts of changing climate and land use on the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem.

Uncertainty quantification and validation of combined hydrological and macroeconomic analyses.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hernandez, Jacquelynne; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Jennings, Barbara Joan

2010-09-01

Changes in climate can lead to instabilities in physical and economic systems, particularly in regions with marginal resources. Global climate models indicate increasing global mean temperatures over the decades to come and uncertainty in the local to national impacts means perceived risks will drive planning decisions. Agent-based models provide one of the few ways to evaluate the potential changes in behavior in coupled social-physical systems and to quantify and compare risks. The current generation of climate impact analyses provides estimates of the economic cost of climate change for a limited set of climate scenarios that account for a small subsetmore » of the dynamics and uncertainties. To better understand the risk to national security, the next generation of risk assessment models must represent global stresses, population vulnerability to those stresses, and the uncertainty in population responses and outcomes that could have a significant impact on U.S. national security.« less

Comparative genetic responses to climate in the varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii: reforestation

Treesearch

Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Barry C. Jaquish; Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; Dennis G. Joyce; Laura P. Leites; J. Bradley St Clair; Javier Lopez-Upton

2014-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the climatic niche of the sub-specific varieties of Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii and on the adaptedness of their populations are considered from the viewpoint of reforestation. In using climate projections from an ensemble of 17 general circulation models targeting the decade surrounding 2060, our analyses suggest that a...

Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Wilmking, Martin; Hallinger, Martin; Blok, Daan; Tape, Ken D.; Rayback, Shelly A.; Macias-Fauria, Marc; Forbes, Bruce C.; Speed, James D. M.; Boulanger-Lapointe, Noémie; Rixen, Christian; Lévesque, Esther; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Baittinger, Claudia; Trant, Andrew J.; Hermanutz, Luise; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Dawes, Melissa A.; Lantz, Trevor C.; Weijers, Stef; Jørgensen, Rasmus Halfdan; Buchwal, Agata; Buras, Allan; Naito, Adam T.; Ravolainen, Virve; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Wheeler, Julia A.; Wipf, Sonja; Guay, Kevin C.; Hik, David S.; Vellend, Mark

2015-09-01

Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate-growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and ~42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern or upper elevational range edges. Across latitude, climate sensitivity of growth was greatest at the boundary between the Low and High Arctic, where permafrost is thawing and most of the global permafrost soil carbon pool is stored. The observed variation in climate-shrub growth relationships should be incorporated into Earth system models to improve future projections of climate change impacts across the tundra biome.

Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011

PubMed Central

Thiede, Brian; Gray, Clark; Mueller, Valerie

2016-01-01

We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates. PMID:28413264

The Importance of Team Health Climate for Health-Related Outcomes of White-Collar Workers.

PubMed

Schulz, Heiko; Zacher, Hannes; Lippke, Sonia

2017-01-01

Occupational health researchers and practitioners have mainly focused on the individual and organizational levels, whereas the team level has been largely neglected. In this study, we define team health climate as employees' shared perceptions of the extent to which their team is concerned, cares, and communicates about health issues. Based on climate, signaling, and social exchange theories, we examined a multilevel model of team health climate and its relationships with five well-established health-related outcomes (i.e., subjective general health, psychosomatic complaints, mental health, work ability, and presenteeism). Results of multilevel analyses of data provided by 6,449 employees in 621 teams of a large organization showed that team health climate is positively related to subjective general health, mental health, and work ability, and negatively related to presenteeism, above and beyond the effects of team size, age, job tenure, job demands, job control, and employees' individual perceptions of health climate. Moreover, additional analyses showed that a positive team health climate buffered the negative relationship between employee age and work ability. Implications for future research on team health climate and suggestions for occupational health interventions in teams are discussed.

Climate Variability and Inter-Provincial Migration in South America, 1970-2011.

PubMed

Thiede, Brian; Gray, Clark; Mueller, Valerie

2016-11-01

We examine the effect of climate variability on human migration in South America. Our analyses draw on over 21 million observations of adults aged 15-40 from 25 censuses conducted in eight South American countries. Addressing limitations associated with methodological diversity among prior studies, we apply a common analytic approach and uniform definitions of migration and climate across all countries. We estimate the effects of climate variability on migration overall and also investigate heterogeneity across sex, age, and socioeconomic groups, across countries, and across historical climate conditions. We also disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination. We find that exposure to monthly temperature shocks has the most consistent effects on migration relative to monthly rainfall shocks and gradual changes in climate over multi-year periods. We also find evidence of heterogeneity across demographic groups and countries. Analyses that disaggregate migration by the rural/urban status of destination suggest that much of the climate-related inter-province migration is directed toward urban areas. Overall, our results underscore the complexity of environment-migration linkages and challenge simplistic narratives that envision a linear and monolithic migratory response to changing climates.

The Importance of Team Health Climate for Health-Related Outcomes of White-Collar Workers

PubMed Central

Schulz, Heiko; Zacher, Hannes; Lippke, Sonia

2017-01-01

Occupational health researchers and practitioners have mainly focused on the individual and organizational levels, whereas the team level has been largely neglected. In this study, we define team health climate as employees’ shared perceptions of the extent to which their team is concerned, cares, and communicates about health issues. Based on climate, signaling, and social exchange theories, we examined a multilevel model of team health climate and its relationships with five well-established health-related outcomes (i.e., subjective general health, psychosomatic complaints, mental health, work ability, and presenteeism). Results of multilevel analyses of data provided by 6,449 employees in 621 teams of a large organization showed that team health climate is positively related to subjective general health, mental health, and work ability, and negatively related to presenteeism, above and beyond the effects of team size, age, job tenure, job demands, job control, and employees’ individual perceptions of health climate. Moreover, additional analyses showed that a positive team health climate buffered the negative relationship between employee age and work ability. Implications for future research on team health climate and suggestions for occupational health interventions in teams are discussed. PMID:28194126

Climate Change: The Physical Basis and Latest Results

ScienceCinema

Stocker, Thomas

2018-05-18

The 2007 Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes: "Warming in the climate system is unequivocal." Without the contribution of Physics to climate science over many decades, such a statement would not have been possible. Experimental physics enables us to read climate archives such as polar ice cores and so provides the context for the current changes. For example, today the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, the second most important greenhouse gas, is 28% higher than any time during the last 800,000 years. Classical fluid mechanics and numerical mathematics are the basis of climate models from which estimates of future climate change are obtained. But major instabilities and surprises in the Earth System are still unknown. These are also to be considered when the climatic consequences of proposals for geo-engineering are estimated. Only Physics will permit us to further improve our understanding in order to provide the foundation for policy decisions facing the global climate change challenge.

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

PubMed

Habib, Rima R; Zein, Kareem El; Ghanawi, Joly

2010-06-01

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.

Searching for climate-conflict links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrix, Cullen S.

2018-03-01

Environmental scarcity caused by climate change has been implicated as a driver of violent conflict. Now, research shows significant bias in the regions analysed for climate-conflict links. This may limit understanding of the socioeconomic and political conditions in which such conflict occurs, and how these conflicts could be prevented.

A role for land surface forcing of North Atlantic climate and isotope signals during the 8.2kyr event?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopcroft, Peter; Valdes, Paul

2014-05-01

An important example of abrupt climate change occurred 8200 years ago in the North Atlantic and is generally known as the 8.2kyr event. This abrupt ~160 year cooling appears to coincide with the final drainage of the ice-dammed Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway. The resultant influx of meltwater to the North Atlantic is assumed to have perturbed the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, reducing northward heat transport and causing widespread cooling. Numerous lines of evidence support this theory, with reconstructions showing changes in deep water formation, reductions in salinity and evidence of sea-level rise. Coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations driven with realistic estimates of the meltwater flux show a regional cooling but fail to replicate the duration or the magnitude of this event in comparison with proxy archives. Meltwater injection was not the only rapid climate forcing in operation at this time. Drainage of the pro-glacial lakes would have had a profound effect on the boundary layer heat fluxes over North America, with potential teleconnections further afield. In this work we use an isotope-enabled version of the coupled GCM HadCM3 with boundary conditions appropriate for the time period of 9kyr (including ice sheets, greenhouse gases and orbital parameters). This model tracks oxygen isotopes throughout the hydrological cycle allowing more robust comparison with proxy archives. We analyse the impact of the removal of a lake area corresponding to Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway at this time and present sensitivity tests designed to analyse the contributions from lake removal, orographic change and the assumed isotopic content of the pro-glacial lakes. The results show a distinct pattern of cooling across North America (in the annual mean) with an apparent teleconnection to the Barents Sea, where there is warming associated with sea-ice reduction. The isotopic implications depend on the initial isotopic content of the pro-glacial lake. Assuming a uniform value of -30 permille, the δ18O of precipitation anomaly shows reasonably strong deviations across different parts of the North Atlantic region implying a possible contribution to signals detected in proxy archives. These results raise the possibility that land surface changes associated with abrupt climate change events might be more important than previously assumed.

Detection of Historical and Future Precipitation Variations and Extremes Over the Continental United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.

2015-12-11

Problem: The overall goal of this proposal is to detect observed seasonal-mean precipitation variations and extreme event occurrences over the United States. Detection, e.g. the process of demonstrating that an observed change in climate is unusual, first requires some means of estimating the range of internal variability absent any external drivers. Ideally, the internal variability would be derived from the observations themselves, however generally the observed variability is a confluence of both internal variability and variability in response to external drivers. Further, numerical climate models—the standard tool for detection studies—have their own estimates of intrinsic variability, which may differ substantiallymore » from that found in the observed system as well as other model systems. These problems are further compounded for weather and climate extremes, which as singular events are particularly ill-suited for detection studies because of their infrequent occurrence, limited spatial range, and underestimation within global and even regional numerical models. Rationale: As a basis for this research we will show how stochastic daily-precipitation models—models in which the simulated interannual-to-multidecadal precipitation variance is purely the result of the random evolution of daily precipitation events within a given time period—can be used to address many of these issues simultaneously. Through the novel application of these well-established models, we can first estimate the changes/trends in various means and extremes that can occur even with fixed daily-precipitation characteristics, e.g. that can occur simply as a result of the stochastic evolution of daily weather events within a given climate. Detection of a change in the observed climate—either naturally or anthropogenically forced—can then be defined as any change relative to this stochastic variability, e.g. as changes/trends in the means and extremes that could only have occurred through a change in the underlying climate. As such, this method is capable of detecting “hot spot” regions—as well as “flare ups” within the hot spot regions—that have experienced interannual to multi-decadal scale variations and trends in seasonal-mean precipitation and extreme events. Further by applying the same methods to numerical climate models we can discern the fidelity of the current-generation climate models in representing detectability within the observed climate system. In this way, we can objectively determine the utility of these model systems for performing detection studies of historical and future climate change.« less

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

Treesearch

Marianne V. Moore; Michael L. Pace; John R. Mather; [and others; [Editor’s note: Patricia A. Flebbe is the SRS co-author for this publication.

1997-01-01

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests, and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and...

Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts

Treesearch

T. D. Ramsfield; Barbara Bentz; M. Faccoli; H. Jactel; E. G. Brockerhoff

2016-01-01

Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate...

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Mark Torre Jorgenson; Bruce G. Marcot; David K. Swanson; Janet C. Jorgenson; Anthony R. DeGange

2015-01-01

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time...

Urban forest sustainability in the United States

Treesearch

David J. Nowak

2017-01-01

Urban forests in the United States provide numerous ecosystem services that vary in magnitude across the country and are valued in the billions of dollars per year. Urban tree cover has been on the decline in recent years. Numerous forces for change will continue to alter urban forests in the coming years (i.e., development, climate change, insects and diseases,...

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

PubMed

Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

2016-02-16

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

PubMed Central

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

2016-01-01

The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

Response of the pelagic system of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California Peninsula to the projected effects of climate change: insights from a numerical model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, B.; Rivas, D.

2015-12-01

The response of the physical and biological dynamics of the Pacific Ocean off Baja California to the projected effects of climate change are studied using numerical simulations. This region is part of the California Current System, which is a highly productive ecosystem due to the seasonal upwelling, supporting all the trophic levels and important fisheries. The response of the ecosystem to the effects of climate change is uncertain and the information generated by models could be useful to predict future conditions. A three-dimensional hydrodinamical model is coupled to a Nitrate-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) trophic model, and it is forced by the GFDL 3.0 model outputs. Monthly climatologies of variables such as temperature, nutrients, wind, and ocean circulation patterns during the historical period 1985-2005 are compared to the available observed data in order to assess the model's ability to reproduce the observed patterns. The system's response to a high-emission scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is also studied. The experiments are carried out using data correspondig to the RCP 6.0 scenario during the period 2006-2050.

Insights from Modeling the Integrated Climate, Biogeochemical Cycles, Human Activities and Their Interactions in the ACME Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leung, L. R.; Thornton, P. E.; Riley, W. J.; Calvin, K. V.

2017-12-01

Towards the goal of understanding the contributions from natural and managed systems to current and future greenhouse gas fluxes and carbon-climate and carbon-CO2 feedbacks, efforts have been underway to improve representations of the terrestrial, river, and human components of the ACME earth system model. Broadly, our efforts include implementation and comparison of approaches to represent the nutrient cycles and nutrient limitations on ecosystem production, extending the river transport model to represent sediment and riverine biogeochemistry, and coupling of human systems such as irrigation, reservoir operations, and energy and land use with the ACME land and river components. Numerical experiments have been designed to understand how terrestrial carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus cycles regulate climate system feedbacks and the sensitivity of the feedbacks to different model treatments, examine key processes governing sediment and biogeochemistry in the rivers and their role in the carbon cycle, and exploring the impacts of human systems in perturbing the hydrological and carbon cycles and their interactions. This presentation will briefly introduce the ACME modeling approaches and discuss preliminary results and insights from numerical experiments that lay the foundation for improving understanding of the integrated climate-biogeochemistry-human system.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prömmel, Kerstin; Cubasch, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The realistic representation of decadal climate variability in the models is essential for the quality of decadal climate predictions. Therefore, the understanding of those processes leading to decadal climate variability needs to be improved. Several of these processes are already included in climate models but their importance has not yet completely been clarified. The simulation of other processes requires sometimes a higher resolution of the model or an extension by additional subsystems. This is addressed within one module of the German research program "MiKlip II - Decadal Climate Predictions" (http://www.fona-miklip.de/en/) with a focus on the following processes. Stratospheric processes and their impact on the troposphere are analysed regarding the climate response to aerosol perturbations caused by volcanic eruptions and the stratospheric decadal variability due to solar forcing, climate change and ozone recovery. To account for the interaction between changing ozone concentrations and climate a computationally efficient ozone chemistry module is developed and implemented in the MiKlip prediction system. The ocean variability and air-sea interaction are analysed with a special focus on the reduction of the North Atlantic cold bias. In addition, the predictability of the oceanic carbon uptake with a special emphasis on the underlying mechanism is investigated. This addresses a combination of physical, biological and chemical processes.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

Shortwave forcing and feedbacks in Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene PMIP3 simulations.

PubMed

Braconnot, Pascale; Kageyama, Masa

2015-11-13

Simulations of the climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), 21 000 years ago, and of the Mid-Holocene (MH), 6000 years ago, allow an analysis of climate feedbacks in climate states that are radically different from today. The analyses of cloud and surface albedo feedbacks show that the shortwave cloud feedback is a major driver of differences between model results. Similar behaviours appear when comparing the LGM and MH simulated changes, highlighting the fingerprint of model physics. Even though the different feedbacks show similarities between the different climate periods, the fact that their relative strength differs from one climate to the other prevents a direct comparison of past and future climate sensitivity. The land-surface feedback also shows large disparities among models even though they all produce positive sea-ice and snow feedbacks. Models have very different sensitivities when considering the vegetation feedback. This feedback has a regional pattern that differs significantly between models and depends on their level of complexity and model biases. Analyses of the MH climate in two versions of the IPSL model provide further indication on the possibilities to assess the role of model biases and model physics on simulated climate changes using past climates for which observations can be used to assess the model results. © 2015 The Author(s).

Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2015-12-01

Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

Genomic Analyses Reveal Demographic History and Temperate Adaptation of the Newly Discovered Honey Bee Subspecies Apis mellifera sinisxinyuan n. ssp

PubMed Central

Chen, Chao; Liu, Zhiguang; Pan, Qi; Chen, Xiao; Wang, Huihua; Guo, Haikun; Liu, Shidong; Lu, Hongfeng; Tian, Shilin; Li, Ruiqiang; Shi, Wei

2016-01-01

Studying the genetic signatures of climate-driven selection can produce insights into local adaptation and the potential impacts of climate change on populations. The honey bee (Apis mellifera) is an interesting species to study local adaptation because it originated in tropical/subtropical climatic regions and subsequently spread into temperate regions. However, little is known about the genetic basis of its adaptation to temperate climates. Here, we resequenced the whole genomes of ten individual bees from a newly discovered population in temperate China and downloaded resequenced data from 35 individuals from other populations. We found that the new population is an undescribed subspecies in the M-lineage of A. mellifera (Apis mellifera sinisxinyuan). Analyses of population history show that long-term global temperature has strongly influenced the demographic history of A. m. sinisxinyuan and its divergence from other subspecies. Further analyses comparing temperate and tropical populations identified several candidate genes related to fat body and the Hippo signaling pathway that are potentially involved in adaptation to temperate climates. Our results provide insights into the demographic history of the newly discovered A. m. sinisxinyuan, as well as the genetic basis of adaptation of A. mellifera to temperate climates at the genomic level. These findings will facilitate the selective breeding of A. mellifera to improve the survival of overwintering colonies. PMID:26823447

Genome-wide signatures of flowering adaptation to climate temperature: Regional analyses in a highly diverse native range of Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Tabas-Madrid, Daniel; Méndez-Vigo, Belén; Arteaga, Noelia; Marcer, Arnald; Pascual-Montano, Alberto; Weigel, Detlef; Xavier Picó, F; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos

2018-03-08

Current global change is fueling an interest to understand the genetic and molecular mechanisms of plant adaptation to climate. In particular, altered flowering time is a common strategy for escape from unfavourable climate temperature. In order to determine the genomic bases underlying flowering time adaptation to this climatic factor, we have systematically analysed a collection of 174 highly diverse Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from the Iberian Peninsula. Analyses of 1.88 million single nucleotide polymorphisms provide evidence for a spatially heterogeneous contribution of demographic and adaptive processes to geographic patterns of genetic variation. Mountains appear to be allele dispersal barriers, whereas the relationship between flowering time and temperature depended on the precise temperature range. Environmental genome-wide associations supported an overall genome adaptation to temperature, with 9.4% of the genes showing significant associations. Furthermore, phenotypic genome-wide associations provided a catalogue of candidate genes underlying flowering time variation. Finally, comparison of environmental and phenotypic genome-wide associations identified known (Twin Sister of FT, FRIGIDA-like 1, and Casein Kinase II Beta chain 1) and new (Epithiospecifer Modifier 1 and Voltage-Dependent Anion Channel 5) genes as candidates for adaptation to climate temperature by altered flowering time. Thus, this regional collection provides an excellent resource to address the spatial complexity of climate adaptation in annual plants. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Climate Action Benefits: Electricity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between electricity and climate change and describes what the CIRA Electricity analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Electricity Demand and Electricity Supply.

Vers une approche globale de l'évolution des HominidésTowards an all-round approach to Hominid evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaline, Jean

1998-03-01

Two models of diversification of the common ancestor of gorillas, chimpanzees and men can be proposed on the basis of the distribution of chromosomal rearrangements in extant species and reconsideration of the role played by climate. The small genetic divergence between chimpanzees and humans is greatly amplified at the morphological level, thus constituting the 'human paradox'. This paradox is resolved by the economical and flexible evolutionary mechanism of mutations in regulator genes and the heterochronies they control, which are the true internal clocks of evolution. Changes in cranial morphology are quantified and used to analyse and explain the steps in the transition from great ape to human morphology. By comparison at the various stages of development, it is suggested that from great apes to modern man numerous heterochronies have occured during ontogeny (hypermorphosis, hypomorphosis and post-displacements).

A Microwave Pressure Sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flower, D. A.; Peckham, G. E.

1978-01-01

An instrument to measure atmospheric pressure at the earth's surface from an orbiting satellite would be a valuable addition to the expanding inventory of remote sensors. The subject of this report is such an instrument - the Microwave Pressure Sounder (MPS). It is shown that global-ocean coverage is attainable with sufficient accuracy, resolution and observational frequency for meteorological, oceanographic and climate research applications. Surface pressure can be deduced from a measurement of the absorption by an atmospheric column at a frequency in the wing of the oxygen band centered on 60 GHz. An active multifrequency instrument is needed to make this measurement with sufficient accuracy. The selection of optimum operating frequencies is based upon accepted models of surface reflection, oxygen, water vapor and cloud absorption. Numerical simulation using a range of real atmospheres defined by radiosonde observations were used to validate the frequency selection procedure. Analyses are presented of alternative system configurations that define the balance between accuracy and achievable resolution.

Risk as a Resource - A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gindorf, Thomas E.

1996-01-01

NASA must change dramatically because of the current United States federal budget climate. The American people and their elected officials have mandated a smaller, more efficient and effective government. For the past decade, NASA's budget had grown at or slightly above the rate of inflation. In that era, taking all steps to avoid the risk of failure was the rule. Spacecraft development was characterized by extensive analyses, numerous reviews, and multiple conservative tests. This methodology was consistent with the long available schedules for developing hardware and software for very large, billion dollar spacecraft. Those days are over. The time when every identifiable step was taken to avoid risk is being replaced by a new paradigm which manages risk in much the same way as other resources (schedule, performance, or dollars) are managed. While success is paramount to survival, it can no longer be bought with a large growing NASA budget.

Evaluation of the AMSR-E Data Calibration Over Land

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Njoku, E.; Chan, T.; Crosson, W.; Limaye, A.

2004-01-01

Land observations by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth Observing System (AMSR-E), particularly of soil and vegetation moisture changes, have numerous applications in hydrology, ecology and climate. Quantitative retrieval of soil and vegetation parameters relies on accurate calibration of the brightness temperature measurements. Analyses of the spectral and polarization characteristics of early versions of the AMSR-E data revealed significant calibration biases over land at 6.9 GHz. The biases were estimated and removed in the current archived version of the data Radiofrequency interference (RFI) observed at 6.9 GHz is more difficult to quanti@ however. A calibration analysis of AMSR-E data over land is presented in this paper for a complete annual cycle from June 2002 through September 2003. The analysis indicates the general high quality of the data for land applications (except for RFI), and illustrates seasonal trends of the data for different land surface types and regions.

Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) in the Mediterranean: A permanent invasion or a casual appearance?

PubMed

Prieto, L; Macías, D; Peliz, A; Ruiz, J

2015-06-25

In 2010, the Mediterranean basin experienced Portuguese Man-of-War (Physalia physalis) swarms that had dramatic consequences, including the region's first recorded human fatality attributed to a jellyfish sting. Despite the impact of jellyfish on coastal economic activity and the importance of the tourism industry for the Mediterranean region (accounting for 15% of global tourism), no scientific consensus has been achieved regarding the causes of this episode. Here, we analyse the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of the North-East Atlantic Ocean during the months previous to the appearance of P. physalis in the Mediterranean. We simulate the probable drift of Atlantic populations into the Mediterranean basin with a numerical model and compare model results with available observations. We conclude that the summer 2010 P. Physalis swarm was the result of an unusual combination of meteorological and oceanographic conditions during the previous winter and not a permanent invasion favoured by climatic changes.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area.

PubMed

Cuena-Lombraña, Alba; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cogoni, Donatella; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2018-03-30

Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global warming effects.

The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuena-Lombraña, Alba; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cogoni, Donatella; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2018-03-01

Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global warming effects.

Modelling and Computation in the Valuation of Carbon Derivatives with Stochastic Convenience Yields

PubMed Central

Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu

2015-01-01

The anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission has risen dramatically during the last few decades, which mainstream researchers believe to be the main cause of climate change, especially the global warming. The mechanism of market-based carbon emission trading is regarded as a policy instrument to deal with global climate change. Although several empirical researches about the carbon allowance and its derivatives price have been made, theoretical results seem to be sparse. In this paper, we theoretically develop a mathematical model to price the CO2 emission allowance derivatives with stochastic convenience yields by the principle of absence of arbitrage opportunities. In the case of American options, we formulate the pricing problem to a linear parabolic variational inequality (VI) in two spatial dimensions and develop a power penalty method to solve it. Then, a fitted finite volume method is designed to solve the nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) resulting from the power penalty method and governing the futures, European and American option valuation. Moreover, some numerical results are performed to illustrate the efficiency and usefulness of this method. We find that the stochastic convenience yield does effect the valuation of carbon emission derivatives. In addition, some sensitivity analyses are also made to examine the effects of some parameters on the valuation results. PMID:26010900

Longevity enhances selection of environmental sex determination.

PubMed

Bull, J J; Bulmer, M G

1989-12-01

Environmental sex determination (ESD) is a mechanism in which an individual develops as male or female largely in response to some environmental effect experienced early in life. Its forms range from sex determination by egg incubation temperature in reptiles to sex determination of photoperiod in amphipods. Previous theoretical work as suggested that ESD is favored by natural selection if the fitness consequences of the early environmental experience differ for males and females, so that an individual benefits by being male under some conditions and female under others. A drawback of ESD is that it enables climatic changes to influence the population sex ratio, and such fluctuations select against ESD. This study employed numerical analyses to investigate the balance between these two opposing forces. The negative impact of climatic fluctuations appears to depend greatly on species longevity: substantial between-year fluctuations are of little consequence in selecting against ESD in long-lived species because annual sex ratio fluctuations tend to cancel and thus alter the total population sex ratio only slightly. Thus, if a species is sufficiently long-lived, extreme ESD can be maintained despite only a weak advantage. This result offers one explanation for the failure to demonstrate an advantage for the extreme forms of ESD observed in reptiles.

Simulation of electricity demand in a remote island for optimal planning of a hybrid renewable energy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koskinas, Aristotelis; Zacharopoulou, Eleni; Pouliasis, George; Engonopoulos, Ioannis; Mavroyeoryos, Konstantinos; Deligiannis, Ilias; Karakatsanis, Georgios; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Tyralis, Hristos

2017-04-01

We simulate the electrical energy demand in the remote island of Astypalaia. To this end we first obtain information regarding the local socioeconomic conditions and energy demand. Secondly, the available hourly demand data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, weekly, daily, seasonal). The cross-correlations between the electrical energy demand and the mean daily temperature as well as other climatic variables for the same time period are computed. Also, we investigate the cross-correlation between those climatic variables and other variables related to renewable energy resources from numerous observations around the globe in order to assess the impact of each one to a hybrid renewable energy system. An exploratory data analysis including all variables is performed with the purpose to find hidden relationships. Finally, the demand is simulated considering all the periodicities found in the analysis. The simulation time series will be used in the development of a framework for planning of a hybrid renewable energy system in Astypalaia. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

Modelling and computation in the valuation of carbon derivatives with stochastic convenience yields.

PubMed

Chang, Shuhua; Wang, Xinyu

2015-01-01

The anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission has risen dramatically during the last few decades, which mainstream researchers believe to be the main cause of climate change, especially the global warming. The mechanism of market-based carbon emission trading is regarded as a policy instrument to deal with global climate change. Although several empirical researches about the carbon allowance and its derivatives price have been made, theoretical results seem to be sparse. In this paper, we theoretically develop a mathematical model to price the CO2 emission allowance derivatives with stochastic convenience yields by the principle of absence of arbitrage opportunities. In the case of American options, we formulate the pricing problem to a linear parabolic variational inequality (VI) in two spatial dimensions and develop a power penalty method to solve it. Then, a fitted finite volume method is designed to solve the nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) resulting from the power penalty method and governing the futures, European and American option valuation. Moreover, some numerical results are performed to illustrate the efficiency and usefulness of this method. We find that the stochastic convenience yield does effect the valuation of carbon emission derivatives. In addition, some sensitivity analyses are also made to examine the effects of some parameters on the valuation results.

78 FR 69104 - Second Allocation, Waivers, and Alternative Requirements for Grantees Receiving Community...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-18

... analyses of risks to infrastructure sectors from climate change and other hazards, such as the Northeast... interdependencies within and across communities and infrastructure sectors; changes to climate and development... biodiversity, and conserve natural resources in the face of a changing climate . . .'' h. HUD Review of Covered...

Hampton Roads climate impact quantification initiative : baseline assessment of the transportation assets & overview of economic analyses useful in quantifying impacts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-13

The Hampton Roads Climate Impact Quantification Initiative (HRCIQI) is a multi-part study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Climate Change Center with the goals that include developing a cost tool that provides methods for volu...

Comparison of Numerical Analyses with a Static Load Test of a Continuous Flight Auger Pile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoľko, Michal; Stacho, Jakub

2014-12-01

The article deals with numerical analyses of a Continuous Flight Auger (CFA) pile. The analyses include a comparison of calculated and measured load-settlement curves as well as a comparison of the load distribution over a pile's length. The numerical analyses were executed using two types of software, i.e., Ansys and Plaxis, which are based on FEM calculations. Both types of software are different from each other in the way they create numerical models, model the interface between the pile and soil, and use constitutive material models. The analyses have been prepared in the form of a parametric study, where the method of modelling the interface and the material models of the soil are compared and analysed. Our analyses show that both types of software permit the modelling of pile foundations. The Plaxis software uses advanced material models as well as the modelling of the impact of groundwater or overconsolidation. The load-settlement curve calculated using Plaxis is equal to the results of a static load test with a more than 95 % degree of accuracy. In comparison, the load-settlement curve calculated using Ansys allows for the obtaining of only an approximate estimate, but the software allows for the common modelling of large structure systems together with a foundation system.

Climate Change Now Apparent and Unequivocal, New Report Warns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-06-01

Climate change is happening now in the United States and globally, and its impacts are expected to become increasingly severe for more people and places unless the rate of emissions of heat-trapping gases is substantially reduced, according to a new report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States,” issued at a 16 June White House briefing. The 190-page report, a product of the interagency U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), states that “global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.” Among other key findings of the report—which drew on USGCRP results and other studies including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment—is that climate change will have numerous impacts on water resources, ecosystems, agriculture, coastal areas, human health, and other sectors.

Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Peters, Anne; Kearney, Michael R; Joseph, Leo; Heinsohn, Robert

2011-06-01

A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

1994-01-01

The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawler, Joshua J.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2010-01-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071–2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Projected climate impacts for the amphibians of the Western hemisphere.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J; Shafer, Sarah L; Bancroft, Betsy A; Blaustein, Andrew R

2010-02-01

Given their physiological requirements, limited dispersal abilities, and hydrologically sensitive habitats, amphibians are likely to be highly sensitive to future climatic changes. We used three approaches to map areas in the western hemisphere where amphibians are particularly likely to be affected by climate change. First, we used bioclimatic models to project potential climate-driven shifts in the distribution of 413 amphibian species based on 20 climate simulations for 2071-2100. We summarized these projections to produce estimates of species turnover. Second, we mapped the distribution of 1099 species with restricted geographic ranges. Finally, using the 20 future climate-change simulations, we mapped areas that were consistently projected to receive less seasonal precipitation in the coming century and thus were likely to have altered microclimates and local hydrologies. Species turnover was projected to be highest in the Andes Mountains and parts of Central America and Mexico, where, on average, turnover rates exceeded 60% under the lower of two emissions scenarios. Many of the restricted-range species not included in our range-shift analyses were concentrated in parts of the Andes and Central America and in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Much of Central America, southwestern North America, and parts of South America were consistently projected to experience decreased precipitation by the end of the century. Combining the results of the three analyses highlighted several areas in which amphibians are likely to be significantly affected by climate change for multiple reasons. Portions of southern Central America were simultaneously projected to experience high species turnover, have many additional restricted-range species, and were consistently projected to receive less precipitation. Together, our three analyses form one potential assessment of the geographic vulnerability of amphibians to climate change and as such provide broad-scale guidance for directing conservation efforts.

Parameter uncertainty in simulations of extreme precipitation and attribution studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, B.; Collins, W. D.; O'Brien, T. A.; Risser, M. D.

2017-12-01

The attribution of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, to anthropogenic influence involves the analysis of their probability in simulations of climate. The climate models used however, such as the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), employ approximate physics that gives rise to "parameter uncertainty"—uncertainty about the most accurate or optimal values of numerical parameters within the model. In particular, approximate parameterisations for convective processes are well known to be influential in the simulation of precipitation extremes. Towards examining the impact of this source of uncertainty on attribution studies, we investigate the importance of components—through their associated tuning parameters—of parameterisations relating to deep and shallow convection, and cloud and aerosol microphysics in CAM. We hypothesise that as numerical resolution is increased the change in proportion of variance induced by perturbed parameters associated with the respective components is consistent with the decreasing applicability of the underlying hydrostatic assumptions. For example, that the relative influence of deep convection should diminish as resolution approaches that where convection can be resolved numerically ( 10 km). We quantify the relationship between the relative proportion of variance induced and numerical resolution by conducting computer experiments that examine precipitation extremes over the contiguous U.S. In order to mitigate the enormous computational burden of running ensembles of long climate simulations, we use variable-resolution CAM and employ both extreme value theory and surrogate modelling techniques ("emulators"). We discuss the implications of the relationship between parameterised convective processes and resolution both in the context of attribution studies and progression towards models that fully resolve convection.

Understanding the NAO from Iberian and UK paleoclimate records. The NAOSIPUK project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Toney, Jaime L.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Slaymark, Charlotte; José Ramos-Román, Maria; Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Anderson, R. Scott

2017-04-01

The main goal of the NAOSIPUK project was to understand the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the Holocene, because the NAO is one major climate mode influencing climate patterns across Europe, and therefore, economy and society (Hurrell, 1995). We analysed several sedimentary records in two regions with opposing NAO responses. Our sedimentary surface survey from numerous lakes and bogs, led to further investigation of four records in the southern Iberian Peninsula and three in the central/northern UK. Past environments of the different sites were analysed using pollen and charcoal analysis, organic and inorganic geochemistry analyses, and sedimentary and geophysical surveys were performed. This work compares general environmental trends in both regions as deduced from the organic matter from bulk sediment to get an idea of the organic matter source, as well as specific organic compounds extracted from the sediment, such as leaf waxes (n-alkanes), algae-related compounds (diols and alkenones), and bacteria-related compounds (hopanes), to specify the sources of the organic matter, environmental temperature ranges, as well as hydrological changes. Our preliminary results show that the palaeoenvironmental indices developed from n-alkanes agree with the variations deduced from the carbon and nitrogen atomic ratios, as well as the carbon isotopic composition from bulk sediments in southern Iberia records. Interestingly, these indices show that some locations display opposite trends from one another, and are used to distinguish regional versus local effects of climate change, human impacts, and aeolian dust inputs. During the late Holocene solar forcing and NAO fluctuations are the main drivers of the environmental evolution in most of the Iberian and UK sites. However, we do detect the influence of the NAO in the temperatures oscillations of the studied sites in southern Iberia. This influence is much more important in the north/central UK sites. The regional comparison between north/central UK and southern Iberia shows a more stable middle Holocene (from ˜7.0 to ˜5.0 cal ky BP) at higher latitudes. On the other hand, the environmental and climatic changes in southern Spain are abrupt during this period. This might be related to the beginning or increasing influence of the NAO during the middle Holocene, which is coeval with a change in the precipitation source in this area. The UK records mainly show abrupt environmental changes between 4.5 and 4.0 cal ky BP and during the last millennia. These environmental changes are especially abrupt in both areas during the last one-hundred years, agreeing with the regional and global industrial development. References Hurrell, J.W., 1995. Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation. Science 269, 676-679. NAOSIPUK. http://www.naosipuk.org. Last access: 9th January 2017.

Coupling records of fluvial activity from the last interglacial-glacial cycle with climate forcing using both geochronology and numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briant, Rebecca; Mottram, Gareth; Wainwright, John

2010-05-01

River systems are a critical component of the landscape. An understanding of their response to variations in the Earth's climate is vital in light of the expected changes in global climate (e.g. 1.8 to 4.8°C temperature rise) that are forecast to occur over the next c. 100 years. Over the longer term, it becomes increasingly likely that the changes we will see may even be of a magnitude for which the most appropriate analogue we have is the glacial-interglacial scale (c. 10°C temperature change) and other climate changes typical of the Quaternary period (last 2 million years). Therefore it is crucial to apply our understanding of climate-driven changes during the Quaternary to future projections of both climate and landscape change, especially since landscape instability is a key characteristic of the Quaternary. Linking river activity to climate requires both the recognition of potentially climate-driven changes within the fluvial sedimentary record and the linkage of these to external climate records using various geochronological techniques. To this end, this paper firstly presents results from the Welland catchment, Fenland Basin where climatically-driven phases of river activity have been identified using detailed sedimentological analysis and palaeontological environmental reconstruction. Dating of these using radiocarbon and optically-stimulated luminescence dating has shown broad correspondence to external climate fluctuations at a marine isotope substage scale over the last interglacial-glacial cycle (MIS 5d onwards). The precision and accuracy of the two different age techniques varies in different parts of this time period and this will be discussed. Limitations in the precision of these geochronological techniques have prompted the use of a further, complementary to improve understanding of these sequences, i.e. ensemble numerical modeling. The rationale behind this approach is that river response to climate can be traced within the model and validated against the known geological record. If the known geological record can be replicated, then the detailed linkages between climate and river activity shown in the model can be used understand to the relationships between climate change and river activity more clearly. This paper will present the results of three-dimensional cellular automata modeling of the Welland catchment, compare them to the geological record, and draw out what this means for our understanding of earth surface processes.

The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and over-arching analysis plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kageyama, Masa; Braconnot, Pascale; Harrison, Sandy P.; Haywood, Alan M.; Jungclaus, Johann H.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Peterschmitt, Jean-Yves; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Albani, Samuel; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Brierley, Chris; Crucifix, Michel; Dolan, Aisling; Fernandez-Donado, Laura; Fischer, Hubertus; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Ivanovic, Ruza F.; Lambert, Fabrice; Lunt, Daniel J.; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Peltier, W. Richard; Phipps, Steven J.; Roche, Didier M.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Tarasov, Lev; Valdes, Paul J.; Zhang, Qiong; Zhou, Tianjun

2018-03-01

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016).The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

Turbulence measurements in the vicinity of a strong polar jet during POLSTRACC/GWLCYCLE II/SALSA, 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramberger, Martina; Dörnbrack, Andreas; Rapp, Markus; Gemsa, Steffen; Raynor, Kevin

2017-04-01

In January 2016, the combined POLar STRAtosphere in a Changing Climate (POLSTRACC), Investigation of the life cycle of gravity waves (GW-LCYCLE) II and Seasonality of Air mass transport and origin in the Lowermost Stratosphere (SALSA) campaign, shortly abbreviated as PGS, took place in Kiruna, Sweden. During this campaign, on 31 January 2016, a strong polar jet with horizontal wind speeds up to 100 m/s was located above northern Great Britain. The research flight PGS12 lead the High Altitude LOng range (HALO) aircraft right above the jet streak of this polar jet, a region which is known from theoretical studies for prevalent turbulence. Here, we present a case study in which high-resolution in-situ aircraft measurements are employed to analyse and quantify turbulence in the described region with parameters such as e.g. turbulent kinetic energy and the eddy dissipation rate. This analysis is supported by idealized numerical simulations to determine involved processes for the generation of turbulence. Complementing, forecasts and operational analyses of the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used to thoroughly analyze the meteorological situation.

Momentum, sensible heat and CO2 correlation coefficient variability: what can we learn from 20 years of continuous eddy covariance measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurdebise, Quentin; Heinesch, Bernard; De Ligne, Anne; Vincke, Caroline; Aubinet, Marc

2017-04-01

Long-term data series of carbon dioxide and other gas exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere become more and more numerous. Long-term analyses of such exchanges require a good understanding of measurement conditions during the investigated period. Independently of climate drivers, measurements may indeed be influenced by measurement conditions themselves subjected to long-term variability due to vegetation growth or set-up changes. The present research refers to the Vielsalm Terrestrial Observatory (VTO) an ICOS candidate site located in a mixed forest (beech, silver fir, Douglas fir, Norway spruce) in the Belgian Ardenne. Fluxes of momentum, carbon dioxide and sensible heat have been continuously measured there by eddy covariance for more than 20 years. During this period, changes in canopy height and measurement height occurred. The correlation coefficients (for momemtum, sensible heat and CO2) and the normalized standard deviations measured for the past 20 years at the Vielsalm Terrestrial Observatory (VTO) were analysed in order to define how the fluxes, independently of climate conditions, were affected by the surrounding environment evolution, including tree growth, forest thinning and tower height change. A relationship between canopy aerodynamic distance and the momentum correlation coefficient was found which is characteristic of the roughness sublayer, and suggests that momentum transport processes were affected by z-d. In contrast, no relationship was found for sensible heat and CO2 correlation coefficients, suggesting that the z-d variability observed did not affect their turbulent transport. There were strong differences in these coefficients, however, between two wind sectors, characterized by contrasted stands (height differences, homogeneity) and different hypotheses were raised to explain it. This study highlighted the importance of taking the surrounding environment variability into account in order to ensure the spatio-temporal consistency of datasets.

Optimal Ranking Regime Analysis of TreeFlow Dendrohydrological Reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauget, S. A.

2017-12-01

The Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify 6-100 year time windows containing significant ranking sequences in 55 western U.S. streamflow reconstructions, and reconstructions of the level of the Great Salt Lake and San Francisco Bay salinity during 1500-2007. The method's ability to identify optimally significant and non-overlapping runs of low and high rankings allows it to re-express a reconstruction time series as a simplified sequence of regime segments marking intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) periods of low or high streamflow, lake level, or salinity. Those ORR sequences, referred to here as Z-lines, can be plotted to identify consistent regime patterns in the analysis of numerous reconstructions. The Z-lines for the 57 reconstructions evaluated here show a common pattern of IMD cycles of drought and pluvial periods during the late 16th and 17th centuries, a relatively dormant period during the 18th century, and the reappearance of alternating dry and wet IMD periods during the 19th and early 20th centuries. Although this pattern suggests the possibility of similarly active and inactive oceanic modes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic, such centennial-scale patterns are not evident in the ORR analyses of reconstructed Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño-Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic seas-surface temperature variation. But given the inconsistency in the analyses of four PDO reconstructions the possible role of centennial-scale oceanic mechanisms is uncertain. In future research the ORR method might be applied to climate reconstructions around the Pacific Basin to try to resolve this uncertainty. Given its ability to compare regime patterns in climate reconstructions derived using different methods and proxies, the method may also be used in future research to evaluate long-term regional temperature reconstructions.

Classification of hydrological parameter sensitivity and evaluation of parameter transferability across 431 US MOPEX basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, Huiying; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi

The Community Land Model (CLM) represents physical, chemical, and biological processes of the terrestrial ecosystems that interact with climate across a range of spatial and temporal scales. As CLM includes numerous sub-models and associated parameters, the high-dimensional parameter space presents a formidable challenge for quantifying uncertainty and improving Earth system predictions needed to assess environmental changes and risks. This study aims to evaluate the potential of transferring hydrologic model parameters in CLM through sensitivity analyses and classification across watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) in the United States. The sensitivity of CLM-simulated water and energy fluxes to hydrologicalmore » parameters across 431 MOPEX basins are first examined using an efficient stochastic sampling-based sensitivity analysis approach. Linear, interaction, and high-order nonlinear impacts are all identified via statistical tests and stepwise backward removal parameter screening. The basins are then classified accordingly to their parameter sensitivity patterns (internal attributes), as well as their hydrologic indices/attributes (external hydrologic factors) separately, using a Principal component analyses (PCA) and expectation-maximization (EM) –based clustering approach. Similarities and differences among the parameter sensitivity-based classification system (S-Class), the hydrologic indices-based classification (H-Class), and the Koppen climate classification systems (K-Class) are discussed. Within each S-class with similar parameter sensitivity characteristics, similar inversion modeling setups can be used for parameter calibration, and the parameters and their contribution or significance to water and energy cycling may also be more transferrable. This classification study provides guidance on identifiable parameters, and on parameterization and inverse model design for CLM but the methodology is applicable to other models. Inverting parameters at representative sites belonging to the same class can significantly reduce parameter calibration efforts.« less

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

2017-11-01

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is "self-aggregation," in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Numerical studies on groundwater-grassland relations in an inland arid region in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J. R.; Hu, L. T.; Sun, K. N.; Liu, X. M.

2017-08-01

In this study, a 2-D numerical model was developed to assess the impacts of groundwater on grassland ecology in the Hulun Lake Basin. An extreme dry climate scenario and water resource management scenario and their interactions in the Hulun Lake Basin were designed, and their influence on groundwater was evaluated. The results show that the grassland ecology is heavily dependent on groundwater, and a distribution of groundwater with a depth of 8 m correlates well with the distribution of grassland. Under the water resource management scenario, the groundwater level will increase to a maximum value of 2.5 m after 15 years around Hulun Lake. The groundwater level will decrease dramatically under the extreme dry climate scenario, thus affecting the environment.

Convective Self-Aggregation in Numerical Simulations: A Review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing, Allison A.; Emanuel, Kerry; Holloway, Christopher E.; Muller, Caroline

Organized convection in the tropics occurs across a range of spatial and temporal scales and strongly influences cloud cover and humidity. One mode of organization found is ``self-aggregation,'' in which moist convection spontaneously organizes into one or several isolated clusters despite spatially homogeneous boundary conditions and forcing. Self-aggregation is driven by interactions between clouds, moisture, radiation, surface fluxes, and circulation, and occurs in a wide variety of idealized simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium. Here we provide a review of convective self-aggregation in numerical simulations, including its character, causes, and effects. We describe the evolution of self-aggregation including its time and length scales and the physical mechanisms leading to its triggering and maintenance, and we also discuss possible links to climate and climate change.

Climate Action Benefits: Infrastructure

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between infrastructure and climate change and describes what the CIRA Infrastructure analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Bridges, Roads, Urban Drainage, and Coastal Property.

Association of genetic and phenotypic variability with geography and climate in three southern California oaks.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin C; Gugger, Paul F; Ortego, Joaquín; Smith, Carrie; Gaddis, Keith; Thompson, Pam; Sork, Victoria L

2016-01-01

Geography and climate shape the distribution of organisms, their genotypes, and their phenotypes. To understand historical and future evolutionary and ecological responses to climate, we compared the association of geography and climate of three oak species (Quercus engelmannii, Quercus berberidifolia, and Quercus cornelius-mulleri) in an environmentally heterogeneous region of southern California at three organizational levels: regional species distributions, genetic variation, and phenotypic variation. We identified climatic variables influencing regional distribution patterns using species distribution models (SDMs), and then tested whether those individual variables are important in shaping genetic (microsatellite) and phenotypic (leaf morphology) variation. We estimated the relative contributions of geography and climate using multivariate redundancy analyses (RDA) with variance partitioning. The modeled distribution of each species was influenced by climate differently. Our analysis of genetic variation using RDA identified small but significant associations between genetic variation with climate and geography in Q. engelmannii and Q. cornelius-mulleri, but not in Q. berberidifolia, and climate explained more of the variation. Our analysis of phenotypic variation in Q. engelmannii indicated that climate had more impact than geography, but not in Q. berberidifolia. Throughout our analyses, we did not find a consistent pattern in effects of individual climatic variables. Our comparative analysis illustrates that climate influences tree response at all organizational levels, but the important climate factors vary depending on the level and on the species. Because of these species-specific and level-specific responses, today's sympatric species are unlikely to have similar distributions in the future. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

Staff Turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (Act) Teams: The Role of Team Climate.

PubMed

Zhu, Xi; Wholey, Douglas R; Cain, Cindy; Natafgi, Nabil

2017-03-01

Staff turnover in Assertive Community Treatment (ACT) teams can result in interrupted services and diminished support for clients. This paper examines the effect of team climate, defined as team members' shared perceptions of their work environment, on turnover and individual outcomes that mediate the climate-turnover relationship. We focus on two climate dimensions: safety and quality climate and constructive conflict climate. Using survey data collected from 26 ACT teams, our analyses highlight the importance of safety and quality climate in reducing turnover, and job satisfaction as the main mediator linking team climate to turnover. The findings offer practical implications for team management.

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM: a review.

PubMed

Rummukainen, Markku; Bergström, Sten; Persson, Gunn; Rodhe, Johan; Tjernström, Michael

2004-06-01

The Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme, SWECLIM, was a 6.5-year national research network for regional climate modeling, regional climate change projections and hydrological impact assessment and information to a wide range of stakeholders. Most of the program activities focussed on the regional climate system of Northern Europe. This led to the establishment of an advanced, coupled atmosphere-ocean-hydrology regional climate model system, a suite of regional climate change projections and progress on relevant data and process studies. These were, in turn, used for information and educational purposes, as a starting point for impact analyses on different societal sectors and provided contributions also to international climate research.

The impacts of climate changes in the renewable energy resources in the Caribbean region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erickson III, David J

2010-02-01

Assessment of renewable energy resources such as surface solar radiation and wind current has great relevance in the development of local and regional energy policies. This paper examines the variability and availability of these resources as a function of possible climate changes for the Caribbean region. Global climate changes have been reported in the last decades, causing changes in the atmospheric dynamics, which affects the net solar radiation balance at the surface and the wind strength and direction. For this investigation, the future climate changes for the Caribbean are predicted using the parallel climate model (PCM) and it is coupledmore » with the numerical model regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS) to simulate the solar and wind energy spatial patterns changes for the specific case of the island of Puerto Rico. Numerical results from PCM indicate that the Caribbean basin from 2041 to 2055 will experience a slight decrease in the net surface solar radiation (with respect to the years 1996-2010), which is more pronounced in the western Caribbean sea. Results also indicate that the easterly winds have a tendency to increase in its magnitude, especially from the years 2070 to 2098. The regional model showed that important areas to collect solar energy are located in the eastern side of Puerto Rico, while the more intense wind speed is placed around the coast. A future climate change is expected in the Caribbean that will result in higher energy demands, but both renewable energy sources will have enough intensity to be used in the future as alternative energy resources to mitigate future climate changes.« less

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely. PMID:26244662

Topographic Evolution and Climate Aridification during Continental Collision: Insights from Computer Simulations.

PubMed

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; Jiménez-Munt, Ivone

2015-01-01

How do the feedbacks between tectonics, sediment transport and climate work to shape the topographic evolution of the Earth? This question has been widely addressed via numerical models constrained with thermochronological and geomorphological data at scales ranging from local to orogenic. Here we present a novel numerical model that aims at reproducing the interaction between these processes at the continental scale. For this purpose, we combine in a single computer program: 1) a thin-sheet viscous model of continental deformation; 2) a stream-power surface-transport approach; 3) flexural isostasy allowing for the formation of large sedimentary foreland basins; and 4) an orographic precipitation model that reproduces basic climatic effects such as continentality and rain shadow. We quantify the feedbacks between these processes in a synthetic scenario inspired by the India-Asia collision and the growth of the Tibetan Plateau. We identify a feedback between erosion and crustal thickening leading locally to a <50% increase in deformation rates in places where orographic precipitation is concentrated. This climatically-enhanced deformation takes place preferentially at the upwind flank of the growing plateau, specially at the corners of the indenter (syntaxes). We hypothesize that this may provide clues for better understanding the mechanisms underlying the intriguing tectonic aneurisms documented in the Himalayas. At the continental scale, however, the overall distribution of topographic basins and ranges seems insensitive to climatic factors, despite these do have important, sometimes counterintuitive effects on the amount of sediments trapped within the continent. The dry climatic conditions that naturally develop in the interior of the continent, for example, trigger large intra-continental sediment trapping at basins similar to the Tarim Basin because they determine its endorheic/exorheic drainage. These complex climatic-drainage-tectonic interactions make the development of steady-state topography at the continental scale unlikely.

DRIAS project : A component of French Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lémond, J.; Dandin, P.; Moisselin, J. M.; Franchistéguy, L.; Kerdoncuff, M.; Pagé, C.; Vautard, R.; Déqué, M.; Planton, S.

2010-09-01

DRIAS (Providing access to French Regionalized climate scenarios for the Impact and the Adaptation of our Societies and environment) is a 2 years project, funded by the GICC (Management and Impacts of Climate Change) programme of the French Ministery of Ecology and Sustainable Development. Its aim is to provide regionalized climate simulations, data and products performed by French climate modeling, as well as to support users of these informations. In addition to numerical data, the project aims to make available probabilistic products, allowing the user to apprehend and take into account in studies the uncertainty inherent in modeling. From a technical perspective, the challenge will be to provide standardized informations between different producers. The combined accompaniment should be under different forms (metadata, hotline, training, forum), which will allow optimal use of products supplied. DRIAS gathers different partners and expertises. Its composed by representatives of French laboratories in which regionalized numerical simulations are produced : IPSL, CERFACS, and CNRM. The project is coordonned by the Climatology Departement of Météo-France which will provide expertise in the production and tools of availability of climatological data, acquired through the development of an existing data service access called Climathèque (http://climatheque.meteo.fr). In addition, a multidisciplinary committee of users representing different sectors concerned by climate change and different kind of structures (public, parapublic, private, association) accompanies the project. Its role is to express needs, validate the choices made, do tests... and thus facilitate communication between producers and users. Thus, the DRIAS project participates in the development effort of French Climate Services. The aim of this work is to present and introduce these key aspects.

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Varela Minder, Elda; Padgett, Holly A.

2017-05-19

Introduction2016 was an exciting year for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). In recognition of our ongoing efforts to raise awareness and provide the scientific data and tools needed to address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, ecosystems, and people, NCCWSC and the CSCs received an honorable mention in the first ever Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources sponsored by the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plant Climate Adaptation Strategy’s Joint Implementation Working Group. The recognition is a reflection of our contribution to numerous scientific workshops and publications, provision of training for students and early career professionals, and work with Tribes and indigenous communities to improve climate change resilience across the Nation. In this report, we highlight some of the activities that took place throughout the NCCWSC and CSC network in 2016.

Dew point temperature affects ascospore release of allergenic genus Leptosphaeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadyś, Magdalena; Kaczmarek, Joanna; Grinn-Gofron, Agnieszka; Rodinkova, Victoria; Prikhodko, Alex; Bilous, Elena; Strzelczak, Agnieszka; Herbert, Robert J.; Jedryczka, Malgorzata

2018-06-01

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman's rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.

Dew point temperature affects ascospore release of allergenic genus Leptosphaeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadyś, Magdalena; Kaczmarek, Joanna; Grinn-Gofron, Agnieszka; Rodinkova, Victoria; Prikhodko, Alex; Bilous, Elena; Strzelczak, Agnieszka; Herbert, Robert J.; Jedryczka, Malgorzata

2018-01-01

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman's rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.

Paleoenvironments and climatic changes in the Italian Peninsula during the Early Pleistocene: evidence from dental wear patterns of the ungulate community of Coste San Giacomo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strani, Flavia; DeMiguel, Daniel; Sardella, Raffaele; Bellucci, Luca

2015-08-01

Quaternary glacial/interglacial alternations, influenced by orbital obliquity cycles with a 41-ka long periodicity, started in the northern hemisphere around 2.6 Ma ago. Such alternations affected the terrestrial ecosystems, especially those of the Mediterranean region, with changes in the floristic communities and the dispersal and radiation of a number of large mammal open dwellers. Analyses of tooth wear patterns of ungulates from the Early Pleistocene site of Coste San Giacomo allow for a more objective reconstruction on the paleoenvironments and the climate in the Italian Peninsula during this epoch. Our results show that this area was composed by a mosaic of biomes, in particular by steppe and woodlands/wetlands. Evidence of such heterogeneity is provided by the wide spectrum of feeding behaviours found among the numerous ungulate herbivores here recorded, with cervids (Axis cf. lyra, Croizetoceros cf. ramosus and Eucladoceros sp.) exhibiting browser diets, most of the bovids (Gazella borbonica and Leptobos sp. and Gallogoral meneghinii) being intermediate feeders and the equid Equus stenonis showing a strict grazer behaviour. These results provide new insights for a timing of changing ecosystems in Southern Europe and reveal the environmental legacy of this global climatic shift, which is essential for understanding the early occupation of Homo in Europe. Thus, our data provide new evidence that such an environmental heterogeneity and a wide spectrum of available food resources could have been the main factors favouring the settlement of early species of Homo in this area.

Amplification and dampening of soil respiration by changes in temperature variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sierra, C.A.; Harmon, M.E.; Thomann, E.; Perakis, S.S.; Loescher, H.W.

2011-01-01

Accelerated release of carbon from soils is one of the most important feed backs related to anthropogenically induced climate change. Studies addressing the mechanisms for soil carbon release through organic matter decomposition have focused on the effect of changes in the average temperature, with little attention to changes in temperature vari-ability. Anthropogenic activities are likely to modify both the average state and the variability of the climatic system; therefore, the effects of future warming on decomposition should not only focus on trends in the average temperature, but also variability expressed as a change of the probability distribution of temperature.Using analytical and numerical analyses we tested common relationships between temperature and respiration and found that the variability of temperature plays an important role determining respiration rates of soil organic matter. Changes in temperature variability, without changes in the average temperature, can affect the amount of carbon released through respiration over the long term. Furthermore, simultaneous changes in the average and variance of temperature can either amplify or dampen there release of carbon through soil respiration as climate regimes change. The effects depend on the degree of convexity of the relationship between temperature and respiration and the magnitude of the change in temperature variance. A potential consequence of this effect of variability would be higher respiration in regions where both the mean and variance of temperature are expected to increase, such as in some low latitude regions; and lower amounts of respiration where the average temperature is expected to increase and the variance to decrease, such as in northern high latitudes.

Rapid warming forces contrasting growth trends of subalpine fir ( Abies fabri ) at higher- and lower-elevations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Wenzhi; Jia, Min; Wang, Genxu

Tree radial growth is expected to increase at higher elevations under climate warming, while lower elevation tree growth is expected to decline. However, numerous studies have found tree radial growth responds consistently to climate along elevational gradients. Here, we sampled five plots across the subalpine Abies fabri forest belt on Gongga Mountain in the eastern Tibetan Plateau to determine tree radial growth trends and responses to climate. Three commonly used detrending methods all consistently showed that tree radial growth at high elevation (> 3100 m) increased, while tree growth declined at the lower elevations (2700 m–2900 m) over the lastmore » three decades. Increasing late-growing season temperature positively (p < 0.05) correlated to tree radial growth at higher elevations, but the sign of this relationship reversed to become negative at lower elevations. Moving-window correlation analyses indicated the difference between high and low elevations response to temperature variation increased strongly with warming. Placing our result into the global context, 62% of 39 published studies found that trees along elevation gradients respond divergently to warming, and that these are located in warmer and wetter regions of the Earth. Notably, 28% of studies found non-significant responses to temperature at both high and low elevations. Our findings in the subalpine mountain forest in the eastern Tibetan Plateau were consistent with the majority of published datasets, and imply increasing temperature benefit for tree populations at higher elevation, while warming dampens growth at lower elevations.« less

The Role of Laboratory-Based Studies of the Physical and Biological Properties of Sea Ice in Supporting the Observation and Modeling of Ice Covered Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Light, B.; Krembs, C.

2003-12-01

Laboratory-based studies of the physical and biological properties of sea ice are an essential link between high latitude field observations and existing numerical models. Such studies promote improved understanding of climatic variability and its impact on sea ice and the structure of ice-dependent marine ecosystems. Controlled laboratory experiments can help identify feedback mechanisms between physical and biological processes and their response to climate fluctuations. Climatically sensitive processes occurring between sea ice and the atmosphere and sea ice and the ocean determine surface radiative energy fluxes and the transfer of nutrients and mass across these boundaries. High temporally and spatially resolved analyses of sea ice under controlled environmental conditions lend insight to the physics that drive these transfer processes. Techniques such as optical probing, thin section photography, and microscopy can be used to conduct experiments on natural sea ice core samples and laboratory-grown ice. Such experiments yield insight on small scale processes from the microscopic to the meter scale and can be powerful interdisciplinary tools for education and model parameterization development. Examples of laboratory investigations by the authors include observation of the response of sea ice microstructure to changes in temperature, assessment of the relationships between ice structure and the partitioning of solar radiation by first-year sea ice covers, observation of pore evolution and interfacial structure, and quantification of the production and impact of microbial metabolic products on the mechanical, optical, and textural characteristics of sea ice.

Dew point temperature affects ascospore release of allergenic genus Leptosphaeria.

PubMed

Sadyś, Magdalena; Kaczmarek, Joanna; Grinn-Gofron, Agnieszka; Rodinkova, Victoria; Prikhodko, Alex; Bilous, Elena; Strzelczak, Agnieszka; Herbert, Robert J; Jedryczka, Malgorzata

2018-06-01

The genus Leptosphaeria contains numerous fungi that cause the symptoms of asthma and also parasitize wild and crop plants. In search of a robust and universal forecast model, the ascospore concentration in air was measured and weather data recorded from 1 March to 31 October between 2006 and 2012. The experiment was conducted in three European countries of the temperate climate, i.e., Ukraine, Poland, and the UK. Out of over 150 forecast models produced using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multivariate regression trees (MRTs), we selected the best model for each site, as well as for joint two-site combinations. The performance of all computed models was tested against records from 1 year which had not been used for model construction. The statistical analysis of the fungal spore data was supported by a comprehensive study of both climate and land cover within a 30-km radius from the air sampler location. High-performance forecasting models were obtained for individual sites, showing that the local micro-climate plays a decisive role in biology of the fungi. Based on the previous epidemiological studies, we hypothesized that dew point temperature (DPT) would be a critical factor in the models. The impact of DPT was confirmed only by one of the final best neural models, but the MRT analyses, similarly to the Spearman's rank test, indicated the importance of DPT in all but one of the studied cases and in half of them ranked it as a fundamental factor. This work applies artificial neural modeling to predict the Leptosphaeria airborne spore concentration in urban areas for the first time.

Climate change and mountain-front morphology: Estimating Late Glacial to Holocene erosion rates from the shape of fault-bounded hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, G. E.; McCoy, S. W.; Whittaker, A. C.; Roberts, G.; Lancaster, S. T.; Phillips, R. J.

2011-12-01

The existence of well-preserved Holocene bedrock fault scarps along active normal faults in the Mediterranean region and elsewhere suggests a dramatic reduction in rates of rock weathering and erosion that correlates with the transition from glacial to interglacial climate. We test and quantify this interpretation using a case study in the Italian Central Apennines. Holocene rates are derived from measurements of weathering-pit depth along the Magnola scarp, where previous cosmogenic 36Cl analyses constrain exposure history. To estimate the average hillslope erosion rate over ˜105 years, we introduce a simple geometric model of normal-fault footwall slope evolution. The model predicts that the gradient of a weathering-limited footwall hillslope is set by fault dip angle and by the ratio of slip rate to erosion rate; if either slip or erosion rate is known, the other can be derived. Applying this model to the Magnola fault yields an estimated average weathering rate on the order of 0.2-0.4 mm/yr, more than 10x higher than either the Holocene scarp weathering rate or modern regional limestone weathering rates. A numerical model of footwall growth and erosion, in which erosion rate tracks the oxygen-isotope curve, reproduces the main features of hillslope and scarp morphology and suggests that the hillslope erosion rate has varied by about a factor of 30 over the past one to two glacial cycles. We conclude that preservation of carbonate fault scarps reflects strong climatic control on rock breakdown by frost cracking.

Authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates.

PubMed

Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R; Cornell, Dewey

2016-06-01

This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high school dropout rates. Analyses controlled for school demographics of school enrollment size, percentage of low-income students, percentage of minority students, and urbanicity. Consistent with authoritative school climate theory, moderation analyses found that when students perceive their teachers as supportive, high academic expectations are associated with lower dropout rates. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Climate Change, National Security, and the Quadrennial Defense Review. Avoiding the Perfect Storm

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

consequently, higher ocean water temperatures are increasing the occurrence of coral bleaching and coral reef die-offs.57 The IPCC concludes that...unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, in- sects, ocean acidification ), and other global...instance, the disintegration of saltwater fishing indus- tries due to ocean acidification could spark inter- and intrastate conflict as numerous

Hydrogeologic influence on changes in snowmelt runoff with climate warming: Numerical experiments on a mid-elevation catchment in the Sierra Nevada, USA

Treesearch

S.M. Jepsen; T.C. Harmon; M.W. Meadows; C.T. Hunsaker

2016-01-01

The role of hydrogeology in mediating long-term changes in mountain streamflow, resulting from reduced snowfall in a potentially warmer climate, is currently not well understood. We explore this by simulating changes in stream discharge and evapotranspiration from a mid-elevation, 1-km2 catchment in the southern Sierra Nevada of California (USA)...

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global precipitation analyses by other institutions. Other global precipitation analyses produced by other methodologies are also used by EMC in certain applications, such as CPC's well-known satellite-IR based technique known as "GPI", and satellite-microwave based estimates from NESDIS or NASA. Finally, the presentation will cover the three assimilation methods used by EMC to assimilate precipitation data, including 1) 3D-VAR variational assimilation in NCEP's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), 2) direct insertion of precipitation-inferred vertical latent heating profiles in NCEP's N. American Data Assimilation System (NDAS) and its N. American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) counterpart, and 3) direct use of observed precipitation to drive the Noah land model component of NCEP's Global and N. American Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS and NLDAS). In the applications of precipitation analyses in data assimilation at NCEP, the analyses are temporally disaggregated to hourly or less using time-weights calculated from A) either radar-based estimates or an analysis of hourly gauge-observations for the CONUS-domain daily precipitation analyses, or B) global model forecasts of 6-hourly precipitation (followed by linear interpolation to hourly or less) for the global CMAP precipitation analysis.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism.

PubMed

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-08-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species-environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile-climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r (2) = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r (2) = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses.

An analytically based numerical method for computing view factors in real urban environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Doo-Il; Woo, Ju-Wan; Lee, Sang-Hyun

2018-01-01

A view factor is an important morphological parameter used in parameterizing in-canyon radiative energy exchange process as well as in characterizing local climate over urban environments. For realistic representation of the in-canyon radiative processes, a complete set of view factors at the horizontal and vertical surfaces of urban facets is required. Various analytical and numerical methods have been suggested to determine the view factors for urban environments, but most of the methods provide only sky-view factor at the ground level of a specific location or assume simplified morphology of complex urban environments. In this study, a numerical method that can determine the sky-view factors ( ψ ga and ψ wa ) and wall-view factors ( ψ gw and ψ ww ) at the horizontal and vertical surfaces is presented for application to real urban morphology, which are derived from an analytical formulation of the view factor between two blackbody surfaces of arbitrary geometry. The established numerical method is validated against the analytical sky-view factor estimation for ideal street canyon geometries, showing a consolidate confidence in accuracy with errors of less than 0.2 %. Using a three-dimensional building database, the numerical method is also demonstrated to be applicable in determining the sky-view factors at the horizontal (roofs and roads) and vertical (walls) surfaces in real urban environments. The results suggest that the analytically based numerical method can be used for the radiative process parameterization of urban numerical models as well as for the characterization of local urban climate.

Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

2008-01-01

With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

Influence of safety motivation and climate on safety behaviour and outcomes: evidence from the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

PubMed

Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Al-Haadir, Saeed; Stewart, Rodney A

2017-03-01

Over the last three decades, safety literature has focused on safety climate and its role in forecasting injuries and accidents. However, research findings regarding the relationships between safety climate and other key outcome constructs are somewhat inconsistent. Recent safety climate literature suggests that examining the role of safety motivation may help provide a better explanation of such relationships. The research presented in this article aimed to empirically analyse the relationships among safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry. A conceptual model was developed to examine the relationships among four main constructs: safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes. Based on the survey data collected in Saudi Arabia from site engineers and project managers (n = 295), statistical analyses were carried out, including confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, and structural equation modelling to assess the model and test the hypotheses. The main results indicated that safety motivation could positively influence safety behaviour through safety climate, which plays a mediating role for this mechanism. The results also confirmed that safety behaviour could predict safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

Impact of Climate Change and Human Intervention on River Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rajendra; Mittal, Neha; Mishra, Ashok

2017-04-01

Climate change and human interventions like dam construction bring freshwater ecosystem under stress by changing flow regime. It is important to analyse their impact at a regional scale along with changes in the extremes of temperature and precipitation which further modify the flow regime components such as magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change of flow. In this study, the Kangsabati river is chosen to analyse the hydrological alterations in its flow regime caused by dam, climate change and their combined impact using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA). Results show that flow variability is significantly reduced due to dam construction with high flows getting absorbed and pre-monsoon low flows being augmented by the reservoir. Climate change alone reduces the high peaks whereas a combination of dam and climate change significantly reduces variability by affecting both high and low flows, thereby further disrupting the functioning of riverine ecosystems. Analysis shows that in the Kangsabati basin, influence of dam is greater than that of the climate change, thereby emphasising the significance of direct human intervention. Keywords: Climate change, human impact, flow regime, Kangsabati river, SWAT, IHA, RVA.

On the physical air-sea fluxes for climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonekamp, J. G.

2001-02-01

At the sea surface, the atmosphere and the ocean exchange momentum, heat and freshwater. Mechanisms for the exchange are wind stress, turbulent mixing, radiation, evaporation and precipitation. These surface fluxes are characterized by a large spatial and temporal variability and play an important role in not only the mean atmospheric and oceanic circulation, but also in the generation and sustainment of coupled climate fluctuations such as the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon. Therefore, a good knowledge of air-sea fluxes is required for the understanding and prediction of climate changes. As part of long-term comprehensive atmospheric reanalyses with `Numerical Weather Prediction/Data assimilation' systems, data sets of global air-sea fluxes are generated. A good example is the 15-year atmospheric reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium--Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Air-sea flux data sets from these reanalyses are very beneficial for climate research, because they combine a good spatial and temporal coverage with a homogeneous and consistent method of calculation. However, atmospheric reanalyses are still imperfect sources of flux information due to shortcomings in model variables, model parameterizations, assimilation methods, sampling of observations, and quality of observations. Therefore, assessments of the errors and the usefulness of air-sea flux data sets from atmospheric (re-)analyses are relevant contributions to the quantitative study of climate variability. Currently, much research is aimed at assessing the quality and usefulness of the reanalysed air-sea fluxes. Work in this thesis intends to contribute to this assessment. In particular, it attempts to answer three relevant questions. The first question is: What is the best parameterization of the momentum flux? A comparison is made of the wind stress parameterization of the ERA15 reanalysis, the currently generated ERA40 reanalysis and the wind stress measurements over the open ocean. The comparison reveals some clear differences in the mean drag coefficient. In addition, this study has indicated that progress has been made from the ERA15 to the ERA40 reanalyses by replacing the model parameterization with a constant Charnock parameter with one which depends on the sea state. The second research question is whether comparison of the response of an ocean model with ocean observations can be exploited to assess the quality of air-sea fluxes of the ERA15 reanalysis. To answer this question in a systematic way an inverse modeling approach is adopted using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) scheme. Firstly, the functioning of the 4DVAR system is demonstrated from identical twin experiments. These experiments reveal that in the equatorial Pacific, a large reduction in wind-stress and upper-ocean temperature misfits can be achieved using an assimilation time window of eight weeks. It is concluded that the usefulness of inverse ocean modeling technique for global surface flux assessment is limited. The main merit of the developed ocean 4DVAR scheme will be to diagnose errors in the ocean analyses of the ocean model. The last research question is: are the ERA15 fluxes useful for the study of regional patterns of climate variability? The climate mode of consideration is the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. This study stresses the importance to have the right climatological forcing conditions to assess time scales of climate variability and it confirms the usefulness of ERA15 air-sea fluxes as ocean model forcing fields to study climate variability on the interannual time scale.

The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

2014-05-01

Abrupt climate changes did not only happen during glacials but also during interglacials such as the Holocene. Marine sediments provide evidence for the periodic occurrence of centennial-scale events with enhanced iceberg discharge during the past 11.000 years (Bond et al., 2001). These events were chronologically linked to reduced solar activity as reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes (Bond et al., 2001), indicating that even an external forcing that is considered to be small, has a potential impact on climate due to several feedback mechanisms (Renssen et al., 2006). The interactions between climate and solar irradiance have been investigated using numerical models (e.g. Haigh, 1996; Renssen et al, 2006), but so far without dynamically computing the Greenland ice sheet and iceberg calving. Thus, the impact of solar variations on iceberg discharge and the underlying mechanisms have not been analysed so far. To analyse the effect of variations in solar activity on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the iceberg calving, as well as possible feedback mechanisms that enhance the impact of the total solar irradiance, we use the earth system model of intermediate complexity (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al., 2013), coupled to the ice sheet/ice shelf model GRISLI (Ritz et al., 2001) and to a dynamic-thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2009, Bügelmayer et al., 2014) to perform transient experiments of the last 6000 years. The experiments are conducted applying reconstructed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic aerosol loads, orbital parameters and variations in the total solar irradiance. We present the response of the coupled model to different solar irradiance scenarios to evaluate modeled GIS sensitivity to relatively modest variations in radiative forcing. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of the model results on the chosen model sensitivity. References: Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., … Bonani, G. (2001): Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5549), 2130-6. doi:10.1126/science.1065680 Bügelmayer, M., Roche, D.M., Renssen, H. (2014): How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? - A model study with a fully coupled ice sheet-climate model. The Cryosphere Discussions 8, 187-228. Haigh, J. D. (1996): The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. Jongma, J.I., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Renssen, H., (2009): The effect of dynamic-thermodynamic icebergs on the Southern Ocean climate in a three-dimensional model. Ocean Modelling 26, 104-113. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Muscheler, R., & Branch, R. (2006): Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing. Climate of the Past, 2, 79-90. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C.(2001): Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 31943-31964, doi:10.1029/2001JD900232. Roche, D.M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., Ritz, C. (2013): Adding a dynamical cryosphere into iLOVECLIM (version 1.0) - Part 1: Coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 6, 5215-5249.

 Climate change may trigger broad shifts in North America's Pacific Coastal rainforests

Treesearch

Dominick A. DellaSala; Patric Brandt; Marni   Koopman; Jessica Leonard; Claude Meisch; Patrick Herzog; Paul Alaback; Michael I. Goldstein; Sarah Jovan; Andy MacKinnon; Henrik von Wehrden

2015-01-01

Climate change poses significant threats to Pacific coastal rainforests of North America. Land managers currently lack a coordinated climate change adaptation approach with which to prepare the region's globally outstanding biodiversity for accelerating change. We provided analyses intended to inform coordinated adaptation for eight focal rainforest tree species...

Climate-growth relationships along a black spruce toposequence in Interior Alaska

Treesearch

Jane M. Wolken; Daniel H. Mann; Thomas A. Grant; Andrea H. Lloyd; T. Scott Rupp; Teresa N. Hollingsworth

2016-01-01

Despite its wide geographic distribution and important role in boreal forest fire regimes, little is known about the climate-growth relationships of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.). We used site- and tree-level analyses to evaluate the radial growth responses to climate of black spruce growing...

Changes in School Climate in a Long-Term Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kallestad, Jan Helge

2010-01-01

In a previous report five school climate instruments were explored (1983 and 1985), and four scales were regarded as meaningful climate measures according to suggested criteria. These scales were re-inspected in the present study (1997 and 1998) by analyses of internal consistency, estimates of reliability (unit and aggregated reliability), and…

Responses to Climate Change: Exploring Organisational Learning across Internationally Networked Organisations for Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boyd, Emily; Osbahr, Henny

2010-01-01

Drawing from the organisational learning and governance literature, this paper assesses four internationally networked governmental and non-governmental organisations in the UK addressing climate change. We analyse how those concerned understand the climate change crisis, what mechanisms are put in place to address information flows, and what…

An introduction to three-dimensional climate modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Washington, W. M.; Parkinson, C. L.

1986-01-01

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

Climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang: a comparison between male- and female-headed households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, W.; Ananda, M. R.; Esariti, L.; Anggraeni, M.

2018-03-01

Mainly due to its complexity, the effort to mainstream gender in addressing climate change issues has been far from the satisfying result. However, there is an urgent call to accommodate gender lens issues and to become more gender sensitive in an attempt to have an effective intervention in responding climate change impact. To enrich the reports on gender and climate change adaptation in city-based case, this paper aims to elaborate climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang city focusing on the gender perspective analysis in male- and female-headed households. The quantitative descriptive method is applied to carry out the analyses, including adaptive strategy and gender role analyses. The research result indicates there are not any significant differences in the climate change adaptation strategies applied in male- and female-headed households. This shows that women in the female-headed households, with their double burden, performed well in managing their roles. Therefore, in particular perspective, it may not be relevant to state that woman and female-headed households are likely to be more vulnerable compared with their counterparts.

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Seungwon; Pan, Lei; Zhai, Chengxing; Tang, Benyang; Kubar, Terry; Zhang, Zia; Wang, Wei

2015-01-01

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

for identifying areas of heightened risk from varying forms of climate forcings is needed. Based on global climate model projections, deviations from...framework provides an opportunity to easily combine multiple data sources — that are often freely available from many federal, state, and global ...Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL

Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

PubMed

Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

2017-01-01

This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

Climate Action Benefits: Ecosystems

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between ecosystems and climate change and describes what the CIRA Ecosystems analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Coral Reefs, Shellfish, Freshwater Fish, Wildfire, and Carbon Storage.

Climate Action Benefits: Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between human health and climate change and describes what the CIRA Health analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Air Quality, Extreme Temperature, Labor, and Water Quality.

Awareness of Climate Change and the Dietary Choices of Young Adults in Finland: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Korkala, Essi A. E.; Hugg, Timo T.; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.

2014-01-01

Climate change is a major public health threat that is exacerbated by food production. Food items differ substantially in the amount of greenhouse gases their production generates and therefore individuals, if willing, can mitigate climate change through dietary choices. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study to assess if the understanding of climate change, concern over climate change or socio-economic characteristics are reflected in the frequencies of climate-friendly food choices. The study population comprised 1623 young adults in Finland who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64.0%). We constructed a Climate-Friendly Diet Score (CFDS) ranging theoretically from −14 to 14 based on the consumption of 14 food items. A higher CFDS indicated a climate-friendlier diet. Multivariate linear regression analyses on the determinants of CFDS revealed that medium concern raised CFDS on average by 0.51 points (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.03, 0.98) and high concern by 1.30 points (95% CI 0.80, 1.80) compared to low concern. Understanding had no effect on CFDS on its own. Female gender raised CFDS by 1.92 (95% CI 1.59, 2.25). Unemployment decreased CFDS by 0.92 (95% CI −1.68, −0.15). Separate analyses of genders revealed that high concern over climate change brought about a greater increase in CFDS in females than in males. Good understanding of climate change was weakly connected to climate-friendly diet among females only. Our results indicate that increasing awareness of climate change could lead to increased consumption of climate-friendly food, reduction in GHG emissions, and thus climate change mitigation. PMID:24824363

Natural hazard risk assessment and management in the Matter valley, Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herz, T.; King, L.; Philippi, S.

2003-04-01

The Matter valley has a length of about 40 km and is surrounded by some of the highest peaks of the Alps resulting in extreme altitudinal differences and a continental character of the climate. These climatic conditions cause a high glacier equilibrium line and therefore a periglacial belt of a large vertical extend. Due to the high relief energy, all kinds of natural hazards typical for high mountain environments occur. The steep western slopes are dominated by rockfalls, slope instabilities in bedrock and avalanches. A widespread cover of unconsolidated sediments on the eastern slopes induces landslides and debris flows, which often reach down to the valley bottom where they can dam up the river. Increasing population and modern land use forms required a more and more sensitive attitude towards natural hazard potentials in this endangered area. Assessment and management of natural hazard risks have been much improved during the last fifteen years and increasing amounts of money are spent each year in order to safeguard settlements, traffic lines, and other objects of the technical infrastructure. Numerous investigations concerning natural hazard risks have been made and the results are considered in the actual land use planning of the Canton. The planning law of the Canton Valais defines risk zones as areas, which are endangered by natural hazards like avalanches, rockfalls, landslides and floodings. Risk assessment is done by overview maps (scale 1:25,000) which are specified by detailed risk analyses consisting of registers and detailed maps (scale 1:2,000 to 1:10,000). These analyses are integrated in the land zoning by defining zones of high, medium and low danger, associated with corresponding prohibitions, restrictions and conditions for utilisation. At present, the incorporation of the avalanche and rockfall register in local zoning plans is completed in most communities of the Canton Valais. An additional inventory of 200 slope instabilities was elaborated and must be considered in present and future local zonation updates. However, zones threatened by floods are only indicated on maps of overview and no planning standards for the management of debris flow hazards exist so far. The Canton is currently carrying out numerous projects of active disaster prevention comprising measurements and constructional precautions against avalanches and slope instabilities as well as monitoring systems and early warning stations.

The Effectiveness of a Geospatial Technologies-Integrated Curriculum to Promote Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A. M.; Peffer, T.; Sahagian, D. L.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

This study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial technologies - integrated climate change curriculum (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/) to promote climate literacy in an urban school district. Five 8th grade Earth and Space Science classes in an urban middle school (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania) consisting of three different ability level tracks participated in the study. Data gathering methods included pre/posttest assessments, daily classroom observations, daily teacher meetings, and examination of student produced artifacts. Data was gathered using a climate change literacy assessment instrument designed to measure students' climate change content knowledge. The items included distractors that address misunderstandings and knowledge deficits about climate change from the existing literature. Paired-sample t-test analyses were conducted to compare the pre- and post-test assessment results. The results of these analyses were used to compare overall gains as well as ability level track groups. Overall results regarding the use of the climate change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts. Effect sizes were large (ES>0.8) and significant (p<0.001) for the entire assessment and for each ability level subgroup. Findings from classroom observations, assessments embedded in the curriculum, and the examination of all student artifacts revealed that the use of geospatial technologies enable middle school students to improve their knowledge of climate change and improve their spatial thinking and reasoning skills.

Influences of climate on aflatoxin producing fungi and aflatoxin contamination.

PubMed

Cotty, Peter J; Jaime-Garcia, Ramon

2007-10-20

Aflatoxins are potent mycotoxins that cause developmental and immune system suppression, cancer, and death. As a result of regulations intended to reduce human exposure, crop contamination with aflatoxins causes significant economic loss for producers, marketers, and processors of diverse susceptible crops. Aflatoxin contamination occurs when specific fungi in the genus Aspergillus infect crops. Many industries frequently affected by aflatoxin contamination know from experience and anecdote that fluctuations in climate impact the extent of contamination. Climate influences contamination, in part, by direct effects on the causative fungi. As climate shifts, so do the complex communities of aflatoxin-producing fungi. This includes changes in the quantity of aflatoxin-producers in the environment and alterations to fungal community structure. Fluctuations in climate also influence predisposition of hosts to contamination by altering crop development and by affecting insects that create wounds on which aflatoxin-producers proliferate. Aflatoxin contamination is prevalent both in warm humid climates and in irrigated hot deserts. In temperate regions, contamination may be severe during drought. The contamination process is frequently broken down into two phases with the first phase occurring on the developing crop and the second phase affecting the crop after maturation. Rain and temperature influence the phases differently with dry, hot conditions favoring the first and warm, wet conditions favoring the second. Contamination varies with climate both temporally and spatially. Geostatistics and multiple regression analyses have shed light on influences of weather on contamination. Geostatistical analyses have been used to identify recurrent contamination patterns and to match these with environmental variables. In the process environmental conditions with the greatest impact on contamination are identified. Likewise, multiple regression analyses allow ranking of environmental variables based on relative influence on contamination. Understanding the impact of climate may allow development of improved management procedures, better allocation of monitoring efforts, and adjustment of agronomic practices in anticipation of global climate change.

Climate Action Benefits: Water Resources

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between water resources and climate change and describes what the CIRA Water Resources analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Inland Flooding, Drought, and Supply and Demand.

Genomic Analyses Reveal Demographic History and Temperate Adaptation of the Newly Discovered Honey Bee Subspecies Apis mellifera sinisxinyuan n. ssp.

PubMed

Chen, Chao; Liu, Zhiguang; Pan, Qi; Chen, Xiao; Wang, Huihua; Guo, Haikun; Liu, Shidong; Lu, Hongfeng; Tian, Shilin; Li, Ruiqiang; Shi, Wei

2016-05-01

Studying the genetic signatures of climate-driven selection can produce insights into local adaptation and the potential impacts of climate change on populations. The honey bee (Apis mellifera) is an interesting species to study local adaptation because it originated in tropical/subtropical climatic regions and subsequently spread into temperate regions. However, little is known about the genetic basis of its adaptation to temperate climates. Here, we resequenced the whole genomes of ten individual bees from a newly discovered population in temperate China and downloaded resequenced data from 35 individuals from other populations. We found that the new population is an undescribed subspecies in the M-lineage of A. mellifera (Apis mellifera sinisxinyuan). Analyses of population history show that long-term global temperature has strongly influenced the demographic history of A. m. sinisxinyuan and its divergence from other subspecies. Further analyses comparing temperate and tropical populations identified several candidate genes related to fat body and the Hippo signaling pathway that are potentially involved in adaptation to temperate climates. Our results provide insights into the demographic history of the newly discovered A. m. sinisxinyuan, as well as the genetic basis of adaptation of A. mellifera to temperate climates at the genomic level. These findings will facilitate the selective breeding of A. mellifera to improve the survival of overwintering colonies. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in these projects is to provide the connections between climate data and running ecological models, and prototype these for future work. NCPP will develop capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and projections of future climate, and will work to link expert guidance and understanding of modeling processes and evaluation of modeling with the use of numerical climate data. Translational information thus is a suite of information that aids in translation of numerical climate information into usable knowledge for applications, e.g. ecological response models, hydrologic risk studies. This information includes technical and scientific aspects including, but not limited to: 1) results of objective, quantitative evaluation of climate models & downscaling techniques, 2) guidance on appropriate uses and interpretation, i.e., understanding the advantages and limitations of various downscaling techniques for specific user applications, 3) characterizing and interpreting uncertainty, 4) Descriptions meaningful to applications, e.g. narratives. NCPP believes that translational information is best co-developed between climate scientists and applications scientists, such as the NC-CSC pilot.

Influence of long-term trends of flooding on habitat conditions in lowland riparian wetlands under low antropopression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz

2016-04-01

Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second part of the 20th century. This is considered a challenge for habitat management as the most recent hydrological dynamics of these riparian habitats entail different temporal balance of oxic-anoxic conditions.

Realistic dust and water cycles in the MarsWRF GCM using coupled two-moment microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christopher; Richardson, Mark Ian; Mischna, Michael A.; Newman, Claire E.

2017-10-01

Dust and water ice aerosols significantly complicate the Martian climate system because the evolution of the two aerosol fields is coupled through microphysics and because both aerosols strongly interact with visible and thermal radiation. The combination of strong forcing feedback and coupling has led to various problems in understanding and modeling of the Martian climate: in reconciling cloud abundances at different locations in the atmosphere, in generating a stable dust cycle, and in preventing numerical instability within models.Using a new microphysics model inside the MarsWRF GCM we show that fully coupled simulations produce more realistic simulation of the Martian climate system compared to a dry, dust only simulations. In the coupled simulations, interannual variability and intra-annual variability are increased, strong 'solstitial pause' features are produced in both winter high latitude regions, and dust storm seasons are more varied, with early southern summer (Ls 180) dust storms and/or more than one storm occurring in some seasons.A new microphysics scheme was developed as a part of this work and has been included in the MarsWRF model. The scheme uses split spectral/spatial size distribution numerics with adaptive bin sizes to track particle size evolution. Significantly, this scheme is highly accurate, numerically stable, and is capable of running with time steps commensurate with those of the parent atmospheric model.

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.

1990-01-01

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

COSP: Satellite simulation software for model assessment

DOE PAGES

Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Webb, M. J.; Bony, S.; ...

2011-08-01

Errors in the simulation of clouds in general circulation models (GCMs) remain a long-standing issue in climate projections, as discussed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. This highlights the need for developing new analysis techniques to improve our knowledge of the physical processes at the root of these errors. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) pursues this objective, and under that framework the CFMIP Observation Simulator Package (COSP) has been developed. COSP is a flexible software tool that enables the simulation of several satellite-borne active and passive sensor observations from model variables. The flexibilitymore » of COSP and a common interface for all sensors facilitates its use in any type of numerical model, from high-resolution cloud-resolving models to the coarser-resolution GCMs assessed by the IPCC, and the scales in between used in weather forecast and regional models. The diversity of model parameterization techniques makes the comparison between model and observations difficult, as some parameterized variables (e.g., cloud fraction) do not have the same meaning in all models. The approach followed in COSP permits models to be evaluated against observations and compared against each other in a more consistent manner. This thus permits a more detailed diagnosis of the physical processes that govern the behavior of clouds and precipitation in numerical models. The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling has recommended the use of COSP in a subset of climate experiments that will be assessed by the next IPCC report. Here we describe COSP, present some results from its application to numerical models, and discuss future work that will expand its capabilities.« less

Three-dimensional hydrogeological modeling to assess the elevated-water-table technique for controlling acid generation from an abandoned tailings site in Quebec, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ethier, Marie-Pier; Bussière, Bruno; Broda, Stefan; Aubertin, Michel

2018-01-01

The Manitou Mine sulphidic-tailings storage facility No. 2, near Val D'Or, Canada, was reclaimed in 2009 by elevating the water table and applying a monolayer cover made of tailings from nearby Goldex Mine. Previous studies showed that production of acid mine drainage can be controlled by lowering the oxygen flux through Manitou tailings with a water table maintained at the interface between the cover and reactive tailings. Simulations of different scenarios were performed using numerical hydrogeological modeling to evaluate the capacity of the reclamation works to maintain the phreatic surface at this interface. A large-scale numerical model was constructed and calibrated using 3 years of field measurements. This model reproduced the field measurements, including the existence of a western zone on the site where the phreatic level targeted is not always met during the summer. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the response of the model to varying saturated hydraulic conductivities, porosities, and grain-size distributions. Higher variations of the hydraulic heads, with respect to the calibrated scenario results, were observed when simulating a looser or coarser cover material. Long-term responses were simulated using: the normal climatic data, data for a normal climate with a 2-month dry spell, and a simplified climate-change case. Environmental quality targets were reached less frequently during summer for the dry spell simulation as well as for the simplified climate-change scenario. This study illustrates how numerical simulations can be used as a key tool to assess the eventual performance of various mine-site reclamation scenarios.

Three-dimensional hydrogeological modeling to assess the elevated-water-table technique for controlling acid generation from an abandoned tailings site in Quebec, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ethier, Marie-Pier; Bussière, Bruno; Broda, Stefan; Aubertin, Michel

2018-06-01

The Manitou Mine sulphidic-tailings storage facility No. 2, near Val D'Or, Canada, was reclaimed in 2009 by elevating the water table and applying a monolayer cover made of tailings from nearby Goldex Mine. Previous studies showed that production of acid mine drainage can be controlled by lowering the oxygen flux through Manitou tailings with a water table maintained at the interface between the cover and reactive tailings. Simulations of different scenarios were performed using numerical hydrogeological modeling to evaluate the capacity of the reclamation works to maintain the phreatic surface at this interface. A large-scale numerical model was constructed and calibrated using 3 years of field measurements. This model reproduced the field measurements, including the existence of a western zone on the site where the phreatic level targeted is not always met during the summer. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the response of the model to varying saturated hydraulic conductivities, porosities, and grain-size distributions. Higher variations of the hydraulic heads, with respect to the calibrated scenario results, were observed when simulating a looser or coarser cover material. Long-term responses were simulated using: the normal climatic data, data for a normal climate with a 2-month dry spell, and a simplified climate-change case. Environmental quality targets were reached less frequently during summer for the dry spell simulation as well as for the simplified climate-change scenario. This study illustrates how numerical simulations can be used as a key tool to assess the eventual performance of various mine-site reclamation scenarios.

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Temmerman, Stijn; D'Alpaos, Andrea; van de Koppel, Johan; Rybczyk, John; Reyes, Enrique; Craft, Chris; Clough, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, S.; Kirwan, M.L.; Mudd, S.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Temmerman, S.; D'Alpaos, A.; Van De Koppel, J.; Rybczyk, J.M.; Reyes, E.; Craft, C.; Clough, J.

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

Treesearch

J.A. O' Donnell; J.W. Harden; A.D. McGuire; V.E. Romanovsky

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil...

The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2

Impacts of volcanic gases on climate, the environment, and people

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Kenneth A.; Doukas, Michael P.; Kessler, Richard; Gerlach, Terrence M.

1997-01-01

Gases from volcanoes give rise to numerous impacts on climate, the environment, and people. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are inventorying gas emissions at many of the almost 70 active volcanoes in the United States. This effort helps build a better understanding of the dynamic processes at work on the Earth's surface and is contributing important new information on how volcanic emissions affect global change.

Investigation of air pollution and regional climate change due to anthropogenic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakata, Makiko; Sano, Itaru; Mukai, Sonoyo

2016-10-01

Increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols associated with economic growth can lead to increased concentrations of hazardous air pollutants. In particular, large cities in East Asia have experienced numerous heavy haze episodes. Atmospheric aerosol distributions in East Asia are complex, being influenced by both natural phenomena and human activity, with urban areas in particular being dominated by fine anthropogenic aerosols released from diesel-powered vehicles and industrial activity. In Japan, air pollution levels have been reduced; nevertheless, in recent years, there is increasing concern regarding air pollution caused by fine particulate matter. The origins of air pollution were examined, focusing on the comparison between aerosol properties observed from satellites and that on the ground. Because of their short life spans, concentrations of anthropogenic aerosols are highest over the source regions, and as a result, the climatic impacts of anthropogenic aerosols are also found to be most pronounced in these regions. In this study, aerosol impacts on climate are assessed by numerical model simulations. The direct effects of aerosols include reduced solar radiation, and hence a decrease in surface temperatures. In addition to these changes in the radiation budget, aerosols have a significant potential to change cloud and precipitation fields. These climatic responses to aerosols can manifest far from their source regions with high industrial activities.

Biogenic organic emissions, air quality and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenther, A. B.

2015-12-01

Living organisms produce copious amounts of a diverse array of metabolites including many volatile organic compounds that are released into the atmosphere. These compounds participate in numerous chemical reactions that influence the atmospheric abundance of important air pollutants and short-lived climate forcers including organic aerosol, ozone and methane. The production and release of these organics are strongly influenced by environmental conditions including air pollution, temperature, solar radiation, and water availability and they are highly sensitive to stress and extreme events. As a result, releases of biogenic organics to the atmosphere have an impact on, and are sensitive to, air quality and climate leading to potential feedback couplings. Their role in linking air quality and climate is conceptually clear but an accurate quantitative representation is needed for predictive models. Progress towards this goal will be presented including numerical model development and assessments of the predictive capability of the Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). Recent studies of processes controlling the magnitude and variations in biogenic organic emissions will be described and observations of their impact on atmospheric composition will be shown. Recent advances and priorities for future research will be discussed including laboratory process studies, long-term measurements, multi-scale regional studies, global satellite observations, and the development of a next generation model for simulating land-atmosphere chemical exchange.

Are numbers grounded in a general magnitude processing system? A functional neuroimaging meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sokolowski, H Moriah; Fias, Wim; Bosah Ononye, Chuka; Ansari, Daniel

2017-10-01

It is currently debated whether numbers are processed using a number-specific system or a general magnitude processing system, also used for non-numerical magnitudes such as physical size, duration, or luminance. Activation likelihood estimation (ALE) was used to conduct the first quantitative meta-analysis of 93 empirical neuroimaging papers examining neural activation during numerical and non-numerical magnitude processing. Foci were compiled to generate probabilistic maps of activation for non-numerical magnitudes (e.g. physical size), symbolic numerical magnitudes (e.g. Arabic digits), and nonsymbolic numerical magnitudes (e.g. dot arrays). Conjunction analyses revealed overlapping activation for symbolic, nonsymbolic and non-numerical magnitudes in frontal and parietal lobes. Contrast analyses revealed specific activation in the left superior parietal lobule for symbolic numerical magnitudes. In contrast, small regions in the bilateral precuneus were specifically activated for nonsymbolic numerical magnitudes. No regions in the parietal lobes were activated for non-numerical magnitudes that were not also activated for numerical magnitudes. Therefore, numbers are processed using both a generalized magnitude system and format specific number regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Action Benefits: Agriculture and Forestry

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between agriculture, forestry, and climate change and describes what the CIRA Agriculture and Forestry analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Crop and Forest Yields and Market Impacts.

Differences in School Climate and Student Engagement in China and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bear, George G.; Yang, Chunyan; Chen, Dandan; He, Xianyou; Xie, Jia-Shu; Huang, Xishan

2018-01-01

Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine differences between American and Chinese students in their perceptions of school climate and engagement in school, and in the relation between school climate and engagement. Method: Confirmatory factor analyses were used to support the factor structure and measurement invariance of the two…

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

Treesearch

Phillip J. van Mantgem; Jonathan C.B. Nesmith; MaryBeth Keifer; Eric E. Knapp; Alan Flint; Lorriane Flint

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after...

Global change in forests: responses of species, communities, and biomes

Treesearch

Andrew J. Hansen; Ronald P. Neilson; Virginia H. Dale; Curtis H. Flather; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Currie; Sarah Shafer; Rosamonde Cook; Partick J. Bartlein

2001-01-01

This article serves as a primer on forest biodiversity as a key component of global change. We first synthesize current knowledge of interactions among climate, land use, and biodiversity. We then summarize the results of new analyses on the potential effects of human-induced climate change on forest biodiversity. Our models project how possible future climates may...

Vulnerability of white spruce tree growth in interior Alaska in response to climate variability: dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives

Treesearch

A.D. McGuire; R.W. Ruess; A. Lloyd; J. Yarie; J.S. Clein; G.P. Juday

2010-01-01

This paper integrates dendrochronological, demographic, and experimental perspectives to improve understanding of the response of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) tree growth to climatic variability in interior Alaska. The dendrochronological analyses indicate that climate warming has led to widespread declines in white spruce growth...

75 FR 7440 - Oil and Gas Leasing on Lands Administered by the Dixie National Forest, Supplemental Information...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-19

... climate change and to provide the opportunity for public comment on the additional information. DATES: To.... Comments regarding the SIR should be directed to the issues of air resources and climate change and are for... on including climate change in the environmental analyses for future planning decisions. In...

The Influence of Classroom Disciplinary Climate of Schools on Reading Achievement: A Cross-Country Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ning, Bo; Van Damme, Jan; Van Den Noortgate, Wim; Yang, Xiangdong; Gielen, Sarah

2015-01-01

Despite considerable interest in research and practice in the effect of classroom disciplinary climate of schools on academic achievement, little is known about the generalizability of this effect over countries. Using hierarchical linear analyses, the present study reveals that a better classroom disciplinary climate in a school is significantly…

Retrieval of effective cloud field parameters from radiometric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paulescu, Marius; Badescu, Viorel; Brabec, Marek

2017-06-01

Clouds play a key role in establishing the Earth's climate. Real cloud fields are very different and very complex in both morphological and microphysical senses. Consequently, the numerical description of the cloud field is a critical task for accurate climate modeling. This study explores the feasibility of retrieving the effective cloud field parameters (namely the cloud aspect ratio and cloud factor) from systematic radiometric measurements at high frequency (measurement is taken every 15 s). Two different procedures are proposed, evaluated, and discussed with respect to both physical and numerical restrictions. None of the procedures is classified as best; therefore, the specific advantages and weaknesses are discussed. It is shown that the relationship between the cloud shade and point cloudiness computed using the estimated cloud field parameters recovers the typical relationship derived from measurements.

Comparing Mid-Century Climate Change Projections at Convective Resolving Scales (2-km) for Life Zones Within Puerto Rico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, J.; Wootten, A.; Terando, A. J.; Boyles, R.; Misra, V.; Bhardwaj, A.

2016-12-01

Puerto Rico is home to over 3.5 million people and numerous endemic plant and animal species that may be at risk as a result of anthropogenic climate change. This study downscales three CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) to a 2-km horizontal resolution using different regional climate models (RCMs) to resolve the island's climate. Here we compare projected climate change from a single GCM, CCSM4, from two RCMs centered on the mid-century, 2041-2060, for a high greenhouse gas emission scenario, RCP8.5. We will discuss similarities and differences in ecologically relevant climate variables, which were selected based on dialogue with experts who have knowledge about potential biological impacts of climate change for current life zones within Puerto Rico. Notable differences appear between the RCMs and include regions with critical ecosystems, such as the El Yunque National Forest in northeast Puerto Rico. This study helps to highlight RCMs structural uncertainty at convective resolving scales.

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Padgett, Holly A.

2016-04-07

2015 was another great year for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) network. The DOI CSCs and USGS NCCWSC continued their mission of providing the science, data, and tools that are needed for on-the-ground decision making by natural and cultural resource managers to address the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, ecosystems, and communities. Our many accomplishments in 2015 included initiating a national effort to understand the influence of drought on wildlife and ecosystems; providing numerous opportunities for students and early career researchers to expand their networks and learn more about climate change effects; and working with tribes and indigenous communities to expand their knowledge of and preparation for the impacts of climate change on important resources and traditional ways of living. Here we illustrate some of these 2015 activities from across the CSCs and NCCWSC.

Tropical specialist vs. climate generalist: Diversification and demographic history of sister species of Carlia skinks from northwestern Australia.

PubMed

Afonso Silva, Ana C; Bragg, Jason G; Potter, Sally; Fernandes, Carlos; Coelho, Maria Manuela; Moritz, Craig

2017-08-01

Species endemic to the tropical regions are expected to be vulnerable to future climate change due in part to their relatively narrow climatic niches. In addition, these species are more likely to have responded strongly to past climatic change, and this can be explored through phylogeographic analyses. To test the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to climate change than climate generalists, we generated and analyse sequence data from mtDNA and ~2500 exons to compare scales of historical persistence and population fluctuation in two sister species of Australian rainbow skinks: the tropical specialist Carlia johnstonei and the climate generalist C. triacantha. We expect the tropical specialist species to have deeper and finer-scale phylogeographic structure and stronger demographic fluctuations relative to the closely related climate generalist species, which should have had more stable populations through periods of harsh climate in the late Quaternary. Within C. johnstonei, we find that some populations from the northern Kimberley islands are highly divergent from mainland populations. In C. triacantha, one major clade occurs across the deserts and into the mesic Top End, and another occurs primarily in the Kimberley with scattered records eastwards. Where their ranges overlap in the Kimberley, both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear DNA suggest stronger phylogeographic structure and range expansion within the tropical specialist, whereas the climate generalist has minimal structuring and no evidence of recent past range expansion. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that tropical specialists are more sensitive to past climatic change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An Early Pleistocene 190 kyr pollen record from the ODP Site 976, Western Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Combourieu Nebout, Nathalie

2010-05-01

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (1.200 to 0.500 Ma) corresponded to a period of increased cooling and the shift from "41 kyr world" to "100 kyr world". Climate cycles were 41 kyr long as a response of the climate system to the obliquity orbital parameter forcing, then the climate system responded to a combination of eccentricity and precession resulting in 100 kyr long cycles. The Mediterranean region offers the opportunity to study climate response to orbital forcing at this particular period. It is usually done on marine proxies that are preserved in continuous sediments with good age attributions but may be affected by calorific inertia of marine environments. We investigate continental palaeoenvironment changes inferred from pollen analyses through time on a short interval of the ODP Site 976 (259.50 to 230.42 mcd). In order to search for short climate oscillations, the chronology has been refined according to the comparison between the pollen ratio "mesothermic vs. Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae and steppe elements" curve and Mediterranean and LR04 oxygen isotope curves. The time slice runs from ~1.090 Ma (MIS 31) to ~0.900 Ma (MIS 23). Pollen analyses provide a new record of the south western Mediterranean vegetation and climate changes at the beginning of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Vegetation successions are evidenced in pollen diagram with replacement of mesothermic elements by mid- and high-altitude trees, ended by strengthening of Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae, and steppe vegetation. These vegetation successions reveal two overlapping rhythms that may be related to climate responses to both obliquity and precession orbital parameters, while wavelet analyses on pollen ratio only indicate the shift from precession to obliquity dominance. The comparison of these two approaches raised the question of their own limit.

A parallel direct numerical simulation of dust particles in a turbulent flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, H. V.; Yokota, R.; Stenchikov, G.; Kocurek, G.

2012-04-01

Due to their effects on radiation transport, aerosols play an important role in the global climate. Mineral dust aerosol is a predominant natural aerosol in the desert and semi-desert regions of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The Arabian Peninsula is one of the three predominant source regions on the planet "exporting" dust to almost the entire world. Mineral dust aerosols make up about 50% of the tropospheric aerosol mass and therefore produces a significant impact on the Earth's climate and the atmospheric environment, especially in the MENA region that is characterized by frequent dust storms and large aerosol generation. Understanding the mechanisms of dust emission, transport and deposition is therefore essential for correctly representing dust in numerical climate prediction. In this study we present results of numerical simulations of dust particles in a turbulent flow to study the interaction between dust and the atmosphere. Homogenous and passive dust particles in the boundary layers are entrained and advected under the influence of a turbulent flow. Currently no interactions between particles are included. Turbulence is resolved through direct numerical simulation using a parallel incompressible Navier-Stokes flow solver. Model output provides information on particle trajectories, turbulent transport of dust and effects of gravity on dust motion, which will be used to compare with the wind tunnel experiments at University of Texas at Austin. Results of testing of parallel efficiency and scalability is provided. Future versions of the model will include air-particle momentum exchanges, varying particle sizes and saltation effect. The results will be used for interpreting wind tunnel and field experiments and for improvement of dust generation parameterizations in meteorological models.

Exploring changes in vertical ice extent along the margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in western Dronning Maud Land - initial results of the MAGIC-DML collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lifton, N. A.; Newall, J. C.; Fredin, O.; Glasser, N. F.; Fabel, D.; Rogozhina, I.; Bernales, J.; Prange, M.; Sams, S.; Eisen, O.; Hättestrand, C.; Harbor, J.; Stroeven, A. P.

2017-12-01

Numerical ice sheet models constrained by theory and refined by comparisons with observational data are a central component of work to address the interactions between the cryosphere and changing climate, at a wide range of scales. Such models are tested and refined by comparing model predictions of past ice geometries with field-based reconstructions from geological, geomorphological, and ice core data. However, on the East Antarctic Ice sheet, there are few empirical data with which to reconstruct changes in ice sheet geometry in the Dronning Maud Land (DML) region. In addition, there is poor control on the regional climate history of the ice sheet margin, because ice core locations, where detailed reconstructions of climate history exist, are located on high inland domes. This leaves numerical models of regional glaciation history in this near-coastal area largely unconstrained. MAGIC-DML is an ongoing Swedish-US-Norwegian-German-UK collaboration with a focus on improving ice sheet models by combining advances in numerical modeling with filling critical data gaps that exist in our knowledge of the timing and pattern of ice surface changes on the western Dronning Maud Land margin. A combination of geomorphological mapping using remote sensing data, field investigations, cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, and numerical ice-sheet modeling are being used in an iterative manner to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the glacial history of western Dronning Maud Land. We will present an overview of the project, as well as field observations and preliminary in situ cosmogenic nuclide measurements from the 2016/17 expedition.

Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

2018-01-01

Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions and minima in solar activity. Time series analysis performed from local (Botryococcus and total organic carbon) and regional (Mediterranean forest) signals helped us determining the relationship between southern Iberian climate evolution, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, and solar activity. Our multiproxy record shows little evidence of human impact in the area until ˜ 1550 cal yr BP, when evidence of agriculture and livestock grazing occurs. Therefore, climate is the main forcing mechanism controlling environmental change in the area until relatively recently.

Congruence between distribution modelling and phylogeographical analyses reveals Quaternary survival of a toadflax species (Linaria elegans) in oceanic climate areas of a mountain ring range.

PubMed

Fernández-Mazuecos, Mario; Vargas, Pablo

2013-06-01

· The role of Quaternary climatic shifts in shaping the distribution of Linaria elegans, an Iberian annual plant, was investigated using species distribution modelling and molecular phylogeographical analyses. Three hypotheses are proposed to explain the Quaternary history of its mountain ring range. · The distribution of L. elegans was modelled using the maximum entropy method and projected to the last interglacial and to the last glacial maximum (LGM) using two different paleoclimatic models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC). Two nuclear and three plastid DNA regions were sequenced for 24 populations (119 individuals sampled). Bayesian phylogenetic, phylogeographical, dating and coalescent-based population genetic analyses were conducted. · Molecular analyses indicated the existence of northern and southern glacial refugia and supported two routes of post-glacial recolonization. These results were consistent with the LGM distribution as inferred under the CCSM paleoclimatic model (but not under the MIROC model). Isolation between two major refugia was dated back to the Riss or Mindel glaciations, > 100 kyr before present (bp). · The Atlantic distribution of inferred refugia suggests that the oceanic (buffered)-continental (harsh) gradient may have played a key and previously unrecognized role in determining Quaternary distribution shifts of Mediterranean plants. © 2013 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2013 New Phytologist Trust.

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Science.gov Websites

Modeling Mesoscale Modeling Marine Modeling and Analysis Teams Climate Data Assimilation Ensembles and Post Contacts Change Log Events Calendar People Numerical Forecast Systems Ensemble and Post Processing Team

Providing the climatic component in human-climate interaction studies: 550,000 years of climate history in the Chew Bahir basin, a key HSPDP site in southern Ethiopia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, V. E.; Asrat, A.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Chapot, M. S.; Cohen, A. S.; Dean, J. R.; Deocampo, D.; Deino, A. L.; Guenter, C.; Junginger, A.; Lamb, H. F.; Leng, M. J.; Roberts, H. M.; Schaebitz, F.; Trauth, M. H.

2017-12-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has cored six predominantly lacustrine archives of climate change spanning much of the last 3.5 Ma in eastern Africa. All six sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological sites encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment core, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, covers the past 550 ka of environmental history, an interval marked by intense climatic changes and includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. We present the outcome of lithologic and stratigraphic investigations, first interpretations of high resolution MSCL and XRF scanning data, and initial results of detailed multi-indicator analysis of the Chew Bahir cores. These analyses are based on more than 14,000 discrete samples, including grain size analyses and X-ray diffraction. An initial chronology, based on Ar/Ar and OSL dating, allows temporal calibration of our reconstruction of dry-wet cycles. Both geochemical and sedimentological data show that the Chew Bahir deposits are sensitive recorders of climate change on millennial to centennial timescales. Initial statistical analyses identify phases marked by abrupt climatic changes, whereas several long-term wet-dry oscillations reveal variations mostly in the precession ( 15-25 kyr), but also in the obliquity ( 40 kyr) and eccentricity frequency bands ( 90-120 kyr). The Chew Bahir record will help decode climate variation on several different time scales, as a consequence of orbitally-driven high-latitude glacial-interglacial shifts and variations in greenhouse gases, Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea-surface temperatures, as well as local solar irradiance. This 550 ka record of environmental change in eastern Africa will ultimately be used to test hypotheses regarding the impact of climate variability on human evolution, dispersal and technological innovation.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Sediment transport drives tidewater glacier periodicity.

PubMed

Brinkerhoff, Douglas; Truffer, Martin; Aschwanden, Andy

2017-07-21

Most of Earth's glaciers are retreating, but some tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures and contrary to their neighbors. This can be explained by the coupling of ice and sediment dynamics: a shoal forms at the glacier terminus, reducing ice discharge and causing advance towards an unstable configuration followed by abrupt retreat, in a process known as the tidewater glacier cycle. Here we use a numerical model calibrated with observations to show that interactions between ice flow, glacial erosion, and sediment transport drive these cycles, which occur independent of climate variations. Water availability controls cycle period and amplitude, and enhanced melt from future warming could trigger advance even in glaciers that are steady or retreating, complicating interpretations of glacier response to climate change. The resulting shifts in sediment and meltwater delivery from changes in glacier configuration may impact interpretations of marine sediments, fjord geochemistry, and marine ecosystems.The reason some of the Earth's tidewater glaciers are advancing despite increasing temperatures is not entirely clear. Here, using a numerical model that simulates both ice and sediment dynamics, the authors show that internal dynamics drive glacier variability independent of climate.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

Concept analysis of safety climate in healthcare providers.

PubMed

Lin, Ying-Siou; Lin, Yen-Chun; Lou, Meei-Fang

2017-06-01

To report an analysis of the concept of safety climate in healthcare providers. Compliance with safe work practices is essential to patient safety and care outcomes. Analysing the concept of safety climate from the perspective of healthcare providers could improve understanding of the correlations between safety climate and healthcare provider compliance with safe work practices, thus enhancing quality of patient care. Concept analysis. The electronic databases of CINAHL, MEDLINE, PubMed and Web of Science were searched for literature published between 1995-2015. Searches used the keywords 'safety climate' or 'safety culture' with 'hospital' or 'healthcare'. The concept analysis method of Walker and Avant analysed safety climate from the perspective of healthcare providers. Three attributes defined how healthcare providers define safety climate: (1) creation of safe working environment by senior management in healthcare organisations; (2) shared perception of healthcare providers about safety of their work environment; and (3) the effective dissemination of safety information. Antecedents included the characteristics of healthcare providers and healthcare organisations as a whole, and the types of work in which they are engaged. Consequences consisted of safety performance and safety outcomes. Most studies developed and assessed the survey tools of safety climate or safety culture, with a minority consisting of interventional measures for improving safety climate. More prospective studies are needed to create interventional measures for improving safety climate of healthcare providers. This study is provided as a reference for use in developing multidimensional safety climate assessment tools and interventional measures. The values healthcare teams emphasise with regard to safety can serve to improve safety performance. Having an understanding of the concept of and interventional measures for safety climate allows healthcare providers to ensure the safety of their operations and their patients. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of late Quaternary climate change on present patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née.

PubMed

Gugger, Paul F; Ikegami, Makihiko; Sork, Victoria L

2013-07-01

Phylogeography and ecological niche models (ENMs) suggest that late Quaternary glacial cycles have played a prominent role in shaping present population genetic structure and diversity, but have not applied quantitative methods to dissect the relative contribution of past and present climate vs. other forces. We integrate multilocus phylogeography, climate-based ENMs and multivariate statistical approaches to infer the effects of late Quaternary climate change on contemporary genetic variation of valley oak (Quercus lobata Née). ENMs indicated that valley oak maintained a stable distribution with local migration from the last interglacial period (~120 ka) to the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka, LGM) to the present compared with large-scale range shifts for an eastern North American white oak (Quercus alba L.). Coast Range and Sierra Nevada foothill populations diverged in the late Pleistocene before the LGM [104 ka (28-1622)] and have occupied somewhat distinct climate niches, according to ENMs and coalescent analyses of divergence time. In accordance with neutral expectations for stable populations, nuclear microsatellite diversity positively correlated with niche stability from the LGM to present. Most strikingly, nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite variation significantly correlated with LGM climate, even after controlling for associations with geographic location and present climate using partial redundancy analyses. Variance partitioning showed that LGM climate uniquely explains a similar proportion of genetic variance as present climate (16% vs. 11-18%), and together, past and present climate explains more than geography (19%). Climate can influence local expansion-contraction dynamics, flowering phenology and thus gene flow, and/or impose selective pressures. These results highlight the lingering effect of past climate on genetic variation in species with stable distributions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Grain dissection as a grain size reducing mechanism during ice microdynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinbach, Florian; Kuiper, Ernst N.; Eichler, Jan; Bons, Paul D.; Drury, Martin R.; Griera, Albert; Pennock, Gill M.; Weikusat, Ilka

2017-04-01

Ice sheets are valuable paleo-climate archives, but can lose their integrity by ice flow. An understanding of the microdynamic mechanisms controlling the flow of ice is essential when assessing climatic and environmental developments related to ice sheets and glaciers. For instance, the development of a consistent mechanistic grain size law would support larger scale ice flow models. Recent research made significant progress in numerically modelling deformation and recrystallisation mechanisms in the polycrystalline ice and ice-air aggregate (Llorens et al., 2016a,b; Steinbach et al., 2016). The numerical setup assumed grain size reduction is achieved by the progressive transformation of subgrain boundaries into new high angle grain boundaries splitting an existing grain. This mechanism is usually termed polygonisation. Analogue experiments suggested, that strain induced grain boundary migration can cause bulges to migrate through the whole of a grain separating one region of the grain from another (Jessell, 1986; Urai, 1987). This mechanism of grain dissection could provide an alternative grain size reducing mechanism, but has not yet been observed during ice microdynamics. In this contribution, we present results using an updated numerical approach allowing for grain dissection. The approach is based on coupling the full field theory crystal visco-plasticity code (VPFFT) of Lebensohn (2001) to the multi-process modelling platform Elle (Bons et al., 2008). VPFFT predicts the mechanical fields resulting from short strain increments, dynamic recrystallisation process are implemented in Elle. The novel approach includes improvements to allow for grain dissection, which was topologically impossible during earlier simulations. The simulations are supported by microstructural observations from NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) ice core. Mappings of c-axis orientations using the automatic fabric analyser and full crystallographic orientations using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) are presented. Numerical simulations predict and resolve the microstructural evolution over strain and time. The occurrence of processes such as grain dissection can only be proven using such time resolved movies of microstructure evolution. We will present movies that show grain dissection as a common process during the simulations. Microstructures obtained from NEEM ice core support the observations and we provide evidence for grain dissection in natural ice. Grain dissection is observed to be most efficient relative to polygonisation, when the microstructure approaches steady state grain sizes. This is consistent with analogue experiments observing grain dissection by Jessell (1986) and Urai (1987). Our research suggests a novel grain size reducing mechanisms in ice microdynamics that should be considered when developing a consistent grain size law.

Development of a ground hydrology model suitable for global climate modeling using soil morphology and vegetation cover, and an evaluation of remotely sensed information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zobler, L.; Lewis, R.

1988-01-01

The long-term purpose was to contribute to scientific understanding of the role of the planet's land surfaces in modulating the flows of energy and matter which influence the climate, and to quantify and monitor human-induced changes to the land environment that may affect global climate. Highlights of the effort include the following: production of geo-coded, digitized World Soil Data file for use with the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model; contribution to the development of a numerical physically-based model of ground hydrology; and assessment of the utility of remote sensing for providing data on hydrologically significant land surface variables.

Impact of the Gulf of California SST on simulating precipitation and crop productivity in the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Prasad, A. K.; Stack, D. H.; El-Askary, H. M.; Kafatos, M.

2012-12-01

Like other ecosystems, agricultural productivity is substantially affected by climate factors. Therefore, accurate climatic data (i.e. precipitation, temperature, and radiation) is crucial to simulating crop yields. In order to understand and anticipate climate change and its impacts on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States, the WRF regional climate model (RCM) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) were employed for simulating crop production. 19 years of WRF RCM output show that there is a strong dry bias during the warm season, especially in Arizona. Consequently, the APSIM crop model indicates very low crop yields in this region. We suspect that the coarse resolution of reanalysis data could not resolve the relatively warm Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Gulf of California (GC), causing the SST to be up to 10 degrees lower than the climatology. In the Southwestern United States, a significant amount of precipitation is associated with North American Monsoon (NAM). During the monsoon season, the low-level moisture is advected to the Southwestern United States via the GC, which is known to be the dominant moisture source. Thus, high-resolution SST data in the GC is required for RCM simulations to accurately represent a reasonable amount of precipitation in the region, allowing reliable evaluation of the impacts on regional ecosystems.and evaluate impacts on regional ecosystems. To evaluate the influence of SST on agriculture in the Southwestern U.S., two sets of numerical simulations were constructed: a control, using unresolved SST of GC, and daily updated SST data from the MODIS satellite sensor. The meteorological drivers from each of the 6 year RCM runs were provided as input to the APSIM model to determine the crop yield. Analyses of the simulated crop production, and the interannual variation of the meteorological drivers, demonstrate the influence of SST on crop yields in the Southwestern United States.

Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

PubMed

Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

2014-01-01

Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have numerous scientific applications, including determination of tree ages, accurate dating of fire-return intervals, archaeology, analyses of stable isotopes, long-term climate reconstructions, and quantifying rates of carbon sequestration.

Quantification of climate and vegetation from Southern African Middle Stone Age sites - an application using Late Pleistocene plant material from Sibudu, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruch, A. A.; Sievers, C.; Wadley, L.

2012-04-01

The isolated geographical situation of South Africa makes the unraveling of various parameters that influence its regional climate in time challenging. If the South African climate does not exhibit a linear correlation with global archives as suggested by some authors then the contribution of independent local data that provides direct information on the environment at a certain place and time is crucial. Fossil plant remains provide valuable information on past environmental conditions. Although few paleobotanical data are available from Southern Africa, some sites reveal rich and diverse fossil floras, most notably, Sibudu Cave, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, with its numerous fruits, seeds, pollen and charcoal flora. Such plant remains not only provide information on past vegetation, but also serve as a sound base for paleoclimate quantification with the Coexistence Approach (CA). Sibudu Cave has pulses of Middle Stone Age occupation separated by hiatuses that are as long as 10 ka. Pre-Still Bay, Still Bay, Howiesons Poort, post-Howiesons Poort and late and final Middle Stone Age industries are present. Variations in vegetation and the animals preyed on through time suggest that subtle environmental changes could have occurred during MIS4 and MIS3 in the Sibudu area. Whilst always semi-forested, the region may have comprised a mosaic of uneven and changeable patches of coastal forest and savanna. These in turn might have influenced the numbers of forest versus plains animals in the area. Cultural factors could also have played a part in the faunal variability observed in Sibudu. Preliminary analyses of Sibudu Cave material confirm the potential of the CA for its application on Late Pleistocene African floras. In the future, comparison with other contemporaneous sites will help quantify spatial differences in the climate of the Late Pleistocene in South Africa, and may answer if environmental changes effected the cultural development from Still Bay to late MSA industries.

The DACCIWA model evaluation project: representation of the meteorology of southern West Africa in state-of-the-art weather, seasonal and climate prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniffka, Anke; Benedetti, Angela; Knippertz, Peter; Stanelle, Tanja; Brooks, Malcolm; Deetz, Konrad; Maranan, Marlon; Rosenberg, Philip; Pante, Gregor; Allan, Richard; Hill, Peter; Adler, Bianca; Fink, Andreas; Kalthoff, Norbert; Chiu, Christine; Vogel, Bernhard; Field, Paul; Marsham, John

2017-04-01

DACCIWA (Dynamics-Aerosol-Chemistry-Cloud Interactions in West Africa) is an EU-funded project that aims to determine the influence of anthropogenic and natural emissions on the atmospheric composition, air quality, weather and climate over southern West Africa. DACCIWA organised a major international field campaign in June-July 2016 and involves a wide range of modelling activities. Here we report about the coordinated model evaluation performed in the framework of DACCIWA focusing on meteorological fields. This activity consists of two elements: (a) the quality of numerical weather prediction during the field campaign, (b) the ability of seasonal and climate models to represent the mean state and its variability. For the first element, the extensive observations from the main field campaign in West Africa in June-July 2016 (ground supersites, radiosondes, aircraft measurements) will be combined with conventional data (synoptic stations, satellites data from various sensors) to evaluate models against. The forecasts include operational products from centres such as the ECMWF, UK MetOffice and the German Weather Service and runs specifically conducted for the planning and the post-analysis of the field campaign using higher resolutions (e.g., WRF, COSMO). The forecast and the observations are analysed in a concerted way to assess the ability of the models to represent the southern West African weather systems and secondly to provide a comprehensive synoptic overview of the state of the atmosphere. In a second step the process will be extended to long-term modelling periods. This includes both seasonal and climate models, respectively. In this case, the observational dataset contains long-term satellite observations and station data, some of which were digitised from written records in the framework of DACCIWA. Parameter choice and spatial averaging will build directly on the weather forecasting evaluation to allow an assessment of the impact of short-term errors on long-term simulations.

Millennium-Scale Crossdating and Inter-Annual Climate Sensitivities of Standing California Redwoods

PubMed Central

Carroll, Allyson L.; Sillett, Stephen C.; Kramer, Russell D.

2014-01-01

Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California’s redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have numerous scientific applications, including determination of tree ages, accurate dating of fire-return intervals, archaeology, analyses of stable isotopes, long-term climate reconstructions, and quantifying rates of carbon sequestration. PMID:25029026

The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic Framework for the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-24

Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security (Alexandria, VA: The Institute for Defense Analyses, 2009), 3. 3 in...Security Needs Assessment, (New York: United Nations, 2012), 7. 50 Christine Youngblut, Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National...Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 10-01-2015 - 03-19-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic 5a

The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic Framework for the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-23

Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security (Alexandria, VA: The Institute for Defense Analyses, 2009), 3. 3 in...Security Needs Assessment, (New York: United Nations, 2012), 7. 50 Christine Youngblut, Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National...Master’s Thesis 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 10-01-2015 - 03-19-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Climate Change Strategy Gap: Crafting a Strategic 5a

Effects of fire and CO2 on biogeography and primary production in glacial and modern climates.

PubMed

Martin Calvo, Maria; Prentice, Iain Colin

2015-11-01

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can disentangle causes and effects in the control of vegetation and fire. We used a DGVM to analyse climate, CO2 and fire influences on biome distribution and net primary production (NPP) in last glacial maximum (LGM) and pre-industrial (PI) times. The Land surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) DGVM was run in a factorial design with fire 'off' or 'on', CO2 at LGM (185 ppm) or PI (280 ppm) concentrations, and LGM (modelled) or recent climates. Results were analysed by Stein-Alpert decomposition to separate primary effects from synergies. Fire removal causes forests to expand and global NPP to increase slightly. Low CO2 greatly reduces forest area (dramatically in a PI climate; realistically under an LGM climate) and global NPP. NPP under an LGM climate was reduced by a quarter as a result of low CO2 . The reduction in global NPP was smaller at low temperatures, but greater in the presence of fire. Global NPP is controlled by climate and CO2 directly through photosynthesis, but also through biome distribution, which is strongly influenced by fire. Future vegetation simulations will need to consider the coupled responses of vegetation and fire to CO2 and climate. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Mapping the landscape of climate engineering

PubMed Central

Oldham, P.; Szerszynski, B.; Stilgoe, J.; Brown, C.; Eacott, B.; Yuille, A.

2014-01-01

In the absence of a governance framework for climate engineering technologies such as solar radiation management (SRM), the practices of scientific research and intellectual property acquisition can de facto shape the development of the field. It is therefore important to make visible emerging patterns of research and patenting, which we suggest can effectively be done using bibliometric methods. We explore the challenges in defining the boundary of climate engineering, and set out the research strategy taken in this study. A dataset of 825 scientific publications on climate engineering between 1971 and 2013 was identified, including 193 on SRM; these are analysed in terms of trends, institutions, authors and funders. For our patent dataset, we identified 143 first filings directly or indirectly related to climate engineering technologies—of which 28 were related to SRM technologies—linked to 910 family members. We analyse the main patterns discerned in patent trends, applicants and inventors. We compare our own findings with those of an earlier bibliometric study of climate engineering, and show how our method is consistent with the need for transparency and repeatability, and the need to adjust the method as the field develops. We conclude that bibliometric monitoring techniques can play an important role in the anticipatory governance of climate engineering. PMID:25404683

Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

1993-01-01

Because of the "greenhouse effect," projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climatic change, and presents the results of sensitivity-analysis studies of the potential effects of climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin. On the basis of sensitivity analyses, potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some climatic-change scenarios become true. The results of basin streamflow-model simulations in this study demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing effects of climatic change on streamflow and water supply from effects of natural variability in current climate. The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be determined precisely because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation. This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant. The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans on how to evaluate and respond to changes, should they occur.

Comparative Analysis of Upper Ocean Heat Content Variability from Ensemble Operational Ocean Analyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim; Ferry, Nicolas; Good, Simon; Ishikawa, Ichiro; Rienecker, Michele; Rosati, Tony; Yin, Yonghong; Kumar, Arun

2012-01-01

Upper ocean heat content (HC) is one of the key indicators of climate variability on many time-scales extending from seasonal to interannual to long-term climate trends. For example, HC in the tropical Pacific provides information on thermocline anomalies that is critical for the longlead forecast skill of ENSO. Since HC variability is also associated with SST variability, a better understanding and monitoring of HC variability can help us understand and forecast SST variability associated with ENSO and other modes such as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An accurate ocean initialization of HC anomalies in coupled climate models could also contribute to skill in decadal climate prediction. Errors, and/or uncertainties, in the estimation of HC variability can be affected by many factors including uncertainties in surface forcings, ocean model biases, and deficiencies in data assimilation schemes. Changes in observing systems can also leave an imprint on the estimated variability. The availability of multiple operational ocean analyses (ORA) that are routinely produced by operational and research centers around the world provides an opportunity to assess uncertainties in HC analyses, to help identify gaps in observing systems as they impact the quality of ORAs and therefore climate model forecasts. A comparison of ORAs also gives an opportunity to identify deficiencies in data assimilation schemes, and can be used as a basis for development of real-time multi-model ensemble HC monitoring products. The OceanObs09 Conference called for an intercomparison of ORAs and use of ORAs for global ocean monitoring. As a follow up, we intercompared HC variations from ten ORAs -- two objective analyses based on in-situ data only and eight model analyses based on ocean data assimilation systems. The mean, annual cycle, interannual variability and longterm trend of HC have been analyzed

The spatial variable glacier mass loss over the southeast Tibet Plateau and the climate cause analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ke, L.; Ding, X.; Song, C.; Sheng, Y.

2016-12-01

Temperate glaciers can be highly sensitive to global climate change due to relatively humid and warm local climate. Numerous temperate glaciers are distributed in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP) and their changes are still poorly represented. Based on a latest glacier inventory and ICESat altimetry measurements, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of glacier change in the SETP (including the central and eastern Nyainqêntanglha ranges) and further analyze its relation with climate change by using station-based and gridded meteorological data. Our results show that SETP glaciers experienced drastic surface lowering at about -0.84±0.26 m a-1 on average over 2003-2008. Debris-covered ice thinned at an average rate of -1.13±0.32 m a-1, in comparison with -0.92±0.17 m a-1 over the debris-free ice areas. The thinning rate is the strongest in the southeastern sub-region (up to -1.24 m a-1 ) and moderate ( -0.45 m a-1 ) in the central and northwestern parts, which is in general agreement with the pattern of surface mass changes based on the GRACE gravimetry observation. Long-term climate data at weather stations show that, in comparison with the period of 1992-2002, mean temperature increased by 0.46 °C - 0.59 °C in the recent decade (2003-2013); while the change of summer precipitation exhibited remarkably spatial variability, following a southeast-northwest contrasting pattern (decreasing by over 10% in the southeast, to stable level in the central region, and increment up to 10% in the northwest). This spatially variable precipitation change is consistent with results from CN05 grid data and ERA re-analysis data, and agrees well with the spatial pattern of glacier surface elevation changes. The results suggest that overall negative glacier mass balances in SETP are governed by temperature rising, while the different precipitation change could contribute to inconsistent glacier thinning rates. The spatial pattern of precipitation decrease and mass loss might be tele-connected with the dynamics of the Indian summer monsoon.

Exploring the sensitivity of soil carbon dynamics to climate change, fire disturbance and permafrost thaw in a black spruce ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnell, J. A.; Harden, J.W.; McGuire, A.D.; Romanovsky, V.E.

2011-01-01

In the boreal region, soil organic carbon (OC) dynamics are strongly governed by the interaction between wildfire and permafrost. Using a combination of field measurements, numerical modeling of soil thermal dynamics, and mass-balance modeling of OC dynamics, we tested the sensitivity of soil OC storage to a suite of individual climate factors (air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth) and fire severity. We also conducted sensitivity analyses to explore the combined effects of fire-soil moisture interactions and snow seasonality on OC storage. OC losses were calculated as the difference in OC stocks after three fire cycles (???500 yr) following a prescribed step-change in climate and/or fire. Across single-factor scenarios, our findings indicate that warmer air temperatures resulted in the largest relative soil OC losses (???5.3 kg C mg-2), whereas dry soil conditions alone (in the absence of wildfire) resulted in the smallest carbon losses (???0.1 kg C mg-2). Increased fire severity resulted in carbon loss of ???3.3 kg C mg-2, whereas changes in snow depth resulted in smaller OC losses (2.1-2.2 kg C mg-2). Across multiple climate factors, we observed larger OC losses than for single-factor scenarios. For instance, high fire severity regime associated with warmer and drier conditions resulted in OC losses of ???6.1 kg C mg-2, whereas a low fire severity regime associated with warmer and wetter conditions resulted in OC losses of ???5.6 kg C mg-2. A longer snow-free season associated with future warming resulted in OC losses of ???5.4 kg C mg-2. Soil climate was the dominant control on soil OC loss, governing the sensitivity of microbial decomposers to fluctuations in temperature and soil moisture; this control, in turn, is governed by interannual changes in active layer depth. Transitional responses of the active layer depth to fire regimes also contributed to OC losses, primarily by determining the proportion of OC into frozen and unfrozen soil layers. ?? 2011 Author(s).

Hydrogen Injection Project

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-05-30

Concerns over fuel cost volatility, climate change and air pollution has motivated a shift to cleaner and more efficient combustion technologies for marine and stationary power production. Numerous technologies have emerged promising to address these...

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

PubMed

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

2015-04-14

Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change.

Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

PubMed Central

Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

2015-01-01

Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Felisa A.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

Climate variability and fire effects on quaking aspen in the central Rocky Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Vachel A. Carter; Andrea Brunelle; Thomas A. Minckley; John D. Shaw; R. Justin DeRose; Simon Brewer

2017-01-01

Our understanding of how climate and fire have impacted quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) communities prior to the 20th century is fairly limited. This study analysed the period between 4500 and 2000 cal. yr BP to assess the pre-historic role of climate and fire on an aspen community during an aspen-dominated period.

The Meaning of Social Climate of Learning Environments: Some Reasons Why We Do Not Care Enough about It

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allodi, Mara W.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article is to analyse reasons underlying the neglect of social climate in education. It discusses the relevance of the concept of social climate in learning environments, presents evidence for its effects and importance in special-needs and inclusive education, presents differences existing between settings and discusses the…

Multi-scalar influence of weather and climate on very large-fires in the Eastern United States

Treesearch

John T. Abatzoglou; Renaud Barbero; Crystal A. Kolden; Katherine C. Hegewisch; Narasimhan K. Larkin; Harry Podschwit

2014-01-01

A majority of area burned in the Eastern United States (EUS) results from a limited number of exceptionally large wildfires. Relationships between climatic conditions and the occurrence of very large-fires (VLF) in the EUS were examined using composite and climate-niche analyses that consider atmospheric factors across inter-annual, sub-seasonal and synoptic temporal...

Climatic Consequences of a Large-Scale Desertification in Northeast Brazil: A GCM Simulation Study.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyama, Marcos Daisuke; Nobre, Carlos Afonso

2004-08-01

The climatic impacts of a large-scale desertification in northeast Brazil (NEB) are assessed by using the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies (CPTEC COLA) AGCM. Two numerical runs are performed. In the control run, NEB is covered by its natural vegetation (most of NEB is covered by a xeromorphic vegetation known as caatinga); in the desertification run, NEB vegetation is changed to desert (bare soil). Each run consists of five 1-yr numerical integrations. The results for NEB wet season (March May) are analyzed. Desertification results in hydrological cycle weakening: precipitation, evapotranspiration, moisture convergence, and runoff decrease. Surface net radiation decreases and this reduction is almost evenly divided between sensible and latent heat flux. Atmospheric diabatic heating decreases and subsidence anomalies confined at lower atmospheric levels are found. The climatic impacts result from the cooperative action of feedback processes related to albedo increase, plant transpiration suppression, and roughness length decrease. On a larger scale, desertification leads to precipitation increase in the oceanic belt close to the northernmost part of NEB (NNEB). In the NEB NNEB dipole, the anomalies of vertical motion and atmospheric circulation are confined to lower atmospheric levels, that is, 850 700 hPa. At these levels, circulation anomalies resemble the linear baroclinic response of a shallow atmospheric layer (850 700 hPa) to a tropical heat sink placed over NEB at the middle-layer level. Therefore, NEB climate does show sensitivity to a vegetation change to desert. The present work shows the possibility of significant and pronounced climate impacts, on both regional and large scales, if the environmental degradation in NEB continues unchecked.

Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2016-01-01

By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century, despite an expected increase in global land precipitation. A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming, underlies the drying trends, but may be a methodological artefact. Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET for either an open-water surface or a reference crop) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models. Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

Workplace mistreatment climate and potential employee and organizational outcomes: a meta-analytic review from the target's perspective.

PubMed

Yang, Liu-Qin; Caughlin, David E; Gazica, Michele W; Truxillo, Donald M; Spector, Paul E

2014-07-01

This meta-analytic study summarizes relations between workplace mistreatment climate-MC (specific to incivility, aggression, and bullying) and potential outcomes. We define MC as individual or shared perceptions of organizational policies, procedures, and practices that deter interpersonal mistreatment. We located 35 studies reporting results with individual perceptions of MC (psychological MC) that yielded 36 independent samples comprising 91,950 employees. Through our meta-analyses, we found significant mean correlations between psychological MC and employee and organizational outcomes including mistreatment reduction effort (motivation and performance), mistreatment exposure, strains, and job attitudes. Moderator analyses revealed that the psychological MC-outcome relations were generally stronger for perceived civility climate than for perceived aggression-inhibition climate, and content contamination of existing climate scales accentuated the magnitude of the relations between psychological MC and some outcomes (mistreatment exposure and employee strains). Further, the magnitudes of the psychological MC-outcome relations were generally comparable across studies using dominant (i.e., most commonly used) and other climate scales, but for some focal relations, magnitudes varied with respect to cross-sectional versus prospective designs. The 4 studies that assessed MC at the unit-level had results largely consistent with those at the employee level.

Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

2016-08-11

Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing vulnerability. Use of the HCCVI approach comprised “Phase II” of the assessment. This approach uses summaries of GIS data and models to develop a series of numeric indices for components of vulnerability. We incorporated many of the data sources used in Phase I, but added the results of several other data sources, including climate envelope modeling and vegetation dynamics modeling. The results of Phase II were high and low numeric vulnerability ratings for mid-century and the end of century for each ecosystem. The high and low ratings represented the potential range of vulnerability scores owing to uncertainties in future climate conditions and ecosystem effects.Of the 12 ecosystems assessed in the first approach, five were rated as having high vulnerability (Caribbean Coastal Mangrove, Caribbean Montane Wet Elfin Forest, East Gulf Coastal Plain Southern Loess Bluff Forest, Edwards Plateau Limestone Shrubland, and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland). Six ecosystems had medium vulnerability, and one ecosystem had low vulnerability. For the two ecosystems assessed with both approaches, vulnerability ratings generally agreed. The assessment concluded by comparing the two approaches, identifying critical research needs, and making suggestions for future ecosystem vulnerability assessments in the Southeast and beyond. Research needs include reducing uncertainty in the degree of climate exposure likely in the future, as well as acquiring more information on how climate might affect biotic interactions and hydrologic processes. Ideally, a comprehensive vulnerability assessment would include both the narrative summaries that resulted from the synthesis in Phase I, as well as a numeric index that incorporates uncertainty as in Phase II.

Extracting climate signals from large hydrological data cubes using multivariate statistics - an example for the Mediterranean basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauer, Agnes; Dorigo, Wouter; Bauer-Marschallinger, Bernhard

2017-04-01

Global warming is expected to change ocean-atmosphere oscillation patterns, e.g. the El Nino Southern Oscillation, and may thus have a substantial impact on water resources over land. Yet, the link between climate oscillations and terrestrial hydrology has large uncertainties. In particular, the climate in the Mediterranean basin is expected to be sensitive to global warming as it may increase insufficient and irregular water supply and lead to more frequent and intense droughts and heavy precipitation events. The ever increasing need for water in tourism and agriculture reinforce the problem. Therefore, the monitoring and better understanding of the hydrological cycle are crucial for this area. This study seeks to quantify the effect of regional climate modes, e.g. the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean. We apply Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to a wide range of hydrological datasets to extract the major modes of variation over the study period. We use more than ten datasets describing precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and changes in water mass with study periods ranging from one to three decades depending on the dataset. The resulting EOFs are then examined for correlations with regional climate modes using Spearman rank correlation analysis. This is done for the entire time span of the EOFs and for monthly and seasonally sampled data. We find relationships between the hydrological datasets and the climate modes NAO, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Eastern Atlantic (EA), and Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA). Analyses of monthly and seasonally sampled data reveal high correlations especially in the winter months. However, the spatial extent of the data cube considered for the analyses have a large impact on the results. Our statistical analyses suggest an impact of regional climate modes on the hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean area and may provide valuable input for evaluating process-oriented climate models. The study is supported by WACMOS-MED project of the European Space Agency.

Progress in Earth System Modeling since the ENIAC Calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-05-01

The success of the first numerical weather prediction experiment on the ENIAC computer in 1950 was hinged on the expansion of the meteorological observing network, which led to theoretical advances in atmospheric dynamics and subsequently the implementation of the simplified equations on the computer. This paper briefly reviews the progress in Earth System Modeling and climate observations, and suggests a strategy to sustain and expand the observations needed to advance climate science and prediction.

Numerical Simulations, Mean Field Theory and Modulational Stability Analysis of Thermohaline Intrusions

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

on the exchange and storage of freshwater. It is an excellent tracer of circulation, which is 3 important in the redistribution of heat and carbon ... dioxide . The Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) was created to investigate the “slowly varying components of the climate...fingers in the thermocline of the tropical Atlantic. Science Magazine, 308, 685–688. Schmitt, R. W., 1979: The growth rate of supercritical salt

Diatom succession trends in recent sediments from Lake Baikal and their relation to atmospheric pollution and to climate change

PubMed Central

Mackay, A. W.

1998-01-01

Recent environmental change in Lake Baikal has been attributed to anthropogenic influences on the ecosystem, especially through pollution and cultural eutrophication. These hypotheses are tested in this paper principally by diatom analyses in 20 short sediment cores. Most of the cores were collected with a new type of box corer specifically designed for use on Lake Baikal. Most cores contain a good sediment record but turbidites occur in some sediment profiles which may be best recognized using a combination of techniques, such as radiometric dating and percentage dry weight analyses. The most recent sediments, especially those in the southern basin and in the very north of Baikal, contain a record of anthropogenic contamination in the form of lead and spheroidal carbonaceous particles, which confirms that the southern basin of Baikal is most affected by atmospheric sources of pollution. However, there is no sedimentary diatom evidence indicating offshore water quality deterioration in Baikal owing to air pollution or eutrophication. Small increases in diatoms which indicate nutrient enrichment (e.g. Stephanodiscus minutulus, Synedra acus v. radians and Synedra acus v. acus) may reflect local eutrophication of the shallow waters close to the Selenga Delta and certain coastal sites in the southern basin near to the Baikalsk paper and pulp mill. By using numerical techniques, Lake Baikal can be split into at least four regions on the basis of its surface sediment flora: the south, middle and north basins, and the shallow waters surrounding the Selenga Delta region. Diatom analyses reveal that the endemic flora of Lake Baikal has been constantly changing over at least the last 2000 years and that these fluctuations are probably responses to natural climatic variability. Recent sediments of Baikal may be affected by taphanomic processes (e.g. dissolution) and turbidite deposition, and these must be taken into account when interpreting the sedimentary diatom record. The diatom flora of the lake is currently dominated by several species, such as Aulacoseira baicalensis, A. islandica, Cyclotella minuta and Stephanodiscus binderanus v. baicalensis. All these species, except for C. minuta, have become more common in the lake in approximately the last 130 years, and we hypothesize that these changes may be attributed to a number of different processes linked to an ameliorating climate after the end of the Little Ice Age. The results presented here have important implications for this recently designated World Heritage Site, with regard to future pollution controls and catchment management policies.

Large Eddy Simulations (LES) and Direct Numerical Simulations (DNS) for the computational analyses of high speed reacting flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Givi, Peyman; Madnia, Cyrus K.; Steinberger, C. J.; Frankel, S. H.

1992-01-01

The principal objective is to extend the boundaries within which large eddy simulations (LES) and direct numerical simulations (DNS) can be applied in computational analyses of high speed reacting flows. A summary of work accomplished during the last six months is presented.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, M.; Brandefelt, J.; Nilsson, J.

2013-04-01

In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11 % (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early- to mid-Holocene.

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

Spatial variation in the climatic predictors of species compositional turnover and endemism

PubMed Central

Di Virgilio, Giovanni; Laffan, Shawn W; Ebach, Malte C; Chapple, David G

2014-01-01

Previous research focusing on broad-scale or geographically invariant species-environment dependencies suggest that temperature-related variables explain more of the variation in reptile distributions than precipitation. However, species–environment relationships may exhibit considerable spatial variation contingent upon the geographic nuances that vary between locations. Broad-scale, geographically invariant analyses may mask this local variation and their findings may not generalize to different locations at local scales. We assess how reptile–climatic relationships change with varying spatial scale, location, and direction. Since the spatial distributions of diversity and endemism hotspots differ for other species groups, we also assess whether reptile species turnover and endemism hotspots are influenced differently by climatic predictors. Using New Zealand reptiles as an example, the variation in species turnover, endemism and turnover in climatic variables was measured using directional moving window analyses, rotated through 360°. Correlations between the species turnover, endemism and climatic turnover results generated by each rotation of the moving window were analysed using multivariate generalized linear models applied at national, regional, and local scales. At national-scale, temperature turnover consistently exhibited the greatest influence on species turnover and endemism, but model predictive capacity was low (typically r2 = 0.05, P < 0.001). At regional scales the relative influence of temperature and precipitation turnover varied between regions, although model predictive capacity was also generally low. Climatic turnover was considerably more predictive of species turnover and endemism at local scales (e.g., r2 = 0.65, P < 0.001). While temperature turnover had the greatest effect in one locale (the northern North Island), there was substantial variation in the relative influence of temperature and precipitation predictors in the remaining four locales. Species turnover and endemism hotspots often occurred in different locations. Climatic predictors had a smaller influence on endemism. Our results caution against assuming that variability in temperature will always be most predictive of reptile biodiversity across different spatial scales, locations and directions. The influence of climatic turnover on the species turnover and endemism of other taxa may exhibit similar patterns of spatial variation. Such intricate variation might be discerned more readily if studies at broad scales are complemented by geographically variant, local-scale analyses. PMID:25473479

The Carbon Aerosol / Particles Nucleation with a Lidar: Numerical Simulations and Field Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miffre, Alain; Anselmo, Christophe; Francis, Mirvatte; David, Gregory; Rairoux, Patrick

2016-06-01

In this contribution, we present the results of two recent papers [1,2] published in Optics Express, dedicated to the development of two new lidar methodologies. In [1], while the carbon aerosol (for example, soot particles) is recognized as a major uncertainty on climate and public health, we couple lidar remote sensing with Laser-Induced-Incandescence (LII) to allow retrieving the vertical profile of very low thermal radiation emitted by the carbon aerosol, in agreement with Planck's law, in an urban atmosphere over several hundred meters altitude. In paper [2], awarded as June 2014 OSA Spotlight, we identify the optical requirements ensuring an elastic lidar to be sensitive to new particles formation events (NPF-events) in the atmosphere, while, in the literature, all the ingredients initiating nucleation are still being unrevealed [3]. Both papers proceed with the same methodology by identifying the optical requirements from numerical simulation (Planck and Kirchhoff's laws in [1], Mie and T-matrix numerical codes in [2]), then presenting lidar field application case studies. We believe these new lidar methodologies may be useful for climate, geophysical, as well as fundamental purposes.

Plant subcellular proteomics: Application for exploring optimal cell function in soybean.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Komatsu, Setsuko

2016-06-30

Plants have evolved complicated responses to developmental changes and stressful environmental conditions. Subcellular proteomics has the potential to elucidate localized cellular responses and investigate communications among subcellular compartments during plant development and in response to biotic and abiotic stresses. Soybean, which is a valuable legume crop rich in protein and vegetable oil, can grow in several climatic zones; however, the growth and yield of soybean are markedly decreased under stresses. To date, numerous proteomic studies have been performed in soybean to examine the specific protein profiles of cell wall, plasma membrane, nucleus, mitochondrion, chloroplast, and endoplasmic reticulum. In this review, methods for the purification and purity assessment of subcellular organelles from soybean are summarized. In addition, the findings from subcellular proteomic analyses of soybean during development and under stresses, particularly flooding stress, are presented and the proteins regulated among subcellular compartments are discussed. Continued advances in subcellular proteomics are expected to greatly contribute to the understanding of the responses and interactions that occur within and among subcellular compartments during development and under stressful environmental conditions. Subcellular proteomics has the potential to investigate the cellular events and interactions among subcellular compartments in response to development and stresses in plants. Soybean could grow in several climatic zones; however, the growth and yield of soybean are markedly decreased under stresses. Numerous proteomics of cell wall, plasma membrane, nucleus, mitochondrion, chloroplast, and endoplasmic reticulum was carried out to investigate the respecting proteins and their functions in soybean during development or under stresses. In this review, methods of subcellular-organelle enrichment and purity assessment are summarized. In addition, previous findings of subcellular proteomics are presented, and functional proteins regulated among different subcellular are discussed. Subcellular proteomics contributes greatly to uncovering responses and interactions among subcellular compartments during development and under stressful environmental conditions in soybean. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finite element techniques in computational time series analysis of turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horenko, I.

2009-04-01

In recent years there has been considerable increase of interest in the mathematical modeling and analysis of complex systems that undergo transitions between several phases or regimes. Such systems can be found, e.g., in weather forecast (transitions between weather conditions), climate research (ice and warm ages), computational drug design (conformational transitions) and in econometrics (e.g., transitions between different phases of the market). In all cases, the accumulation of sufficiently detailed time series has led to the formation of huge databases, containing enormous but still undiscovered treasures of information. However, the extraction of essential dynamics and identification of the phases is usually hindered by the multidimensional nature of the signal, i.e., the information is "hidden" in the time series. The standard filtering approaches (like f.~e. wavelets-based spectral methods) have in general unfeasible numerical complexity in high-dimensions, other standard methods (like f.~e. Kalman-filter, MVAR, ARCH/GARCH etc.) impose some strong assumptions about the type of the underlying dynamics. Approach based on optimization of the specially constructed regularized functional (describing the quality of data description in terms of the certain amount of specified models) will be introduced. Based on this approach, several new adaptive mathematical methods for simultaneous EOF/SSA-like data-based dimension reduction and identification of hidden phases in high-dimensional time series will be presented. The methods exploit the topological structure of the analysed data an do not impose severe assumptions on the underlying dynamics. Special emphasis will be done on the mathematical assumptions and numerical cost of the constructed methods. The application of the presented methods will be first demonstrated on a toy example and the results will be compared with the ones obtained by standard approaches. The importance of accounting for the mathematical assumptions used in the analysis will be pointed up in this example. Finally, applications to analysis of meteorological and climate data will be presented.

Resilience, rapid transitions and regime shifts: fingerprinting the responses of Lake Żabińskie (NE Poland) to climate variability and human disturbance since 1000 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tylmann, Wojciech; Hernández-Almeida, Iván; Grosjean, Martin; José Gómez Navarro, Juan; Larocque-Tobler, Isabelle; Bonk, Alicja; Enters, Dirk; Ustrzycka, Alicja; Piotrowska, Natalia; Przybylak, Rajmund; Wacnik, Agnieszka; Witak, Małgorzata

2016-04-01

Rapid ecosystem transitions and adverse effects on ecosystem services as responses to combined climate and human impacts are of major concern. Yet few quantitative observational data exist, particularly for ecosystems that have a long history of human intervention. Here, we combine quantitative summer and winter climate reconstructions, climate model simulations and proxies for three major environmental pressures (land use, nutrients and erosion) to explore the system dynamics, resilience, and the role of disturbance regimes in varved eutrophic Lake Żabińskie since AD 1000. Comparison between regional and global climate simulations and quantitative climate reconstructions indicate that proxy data capture noticeably natural forced climate variability, while internal variability appears as the dominant source of climate variability in the climate model simulations during most parts of the last millennium. Using different multivariate analyses and change point detection techniques, we identify ecosystem changes through time and shifts between rather stable states and highly variable ones, as expressed by the proxies for land-use, erosion and productivity in the lake. Prior to AD 1600, the lake ecosystem was characterized by a high stability and resilience against considerable observed natural climate variability. In contrast, lake-ecosystem conditions started to fluctuate at high frequency across a broad range of states after AD 1600. The period AD 1748-1868 represents the phase with the strongest human disturbance of the ecosystem. Analyses of the frequency of change points in the multi-proxy dataset suggests that the last 400 years were highly variable and flickering with increasing vulnerability of the ecosystem to the combined effects of climate variability and anthropogenic disturbances. This led to significant rapid ecosystem transformations.

Safety climate in Swiss hospital units: Swiss version of the Safety Climate Survey

PubMed Central

Gehring, Katrin; Mascherek, Anna C.; Bezzola, Paula

2015-01-01

Abstract Rationale, aims and objectives Safety climate measurements are a broadly used element of improvement initiatives. In order to provide a sound and easy‐to‐administer instrument for the use in Swiss hospitals, we translated the Safety Climate Survey into German and French. Methods After translating the Safety Climate Survey into French and German, a cross‐sectional survey study was conducted with health care professionals (HCPs) in operating room (OR) teams and on OR‐related wards in 10 Swiss hospitals. Validity of the instrument was examined by means of Cronbach's alpha and missing rates of the single items. Item‐descriptive statistics group differences and percentage of ‘problematic responses’ (PPR) were calculated. Results 3153 HCPs completed the survey (response rate: 63.4%). 1308 individuals were excluded from the analyses because of a profession other than doctor or nurse or invalid answers (n = 1845; nurses = 1321, doctors = 523). Internal consistency of the translated Safety Climate Survey was good (Cronbach's alpha G erman = 0.86; Cronbach's alpha F rench = 0.84). Missing rates at item level were rather low (0.23–4.3%). We found significant group differences in safety climate values regarding profession, managerial function, work area and time spent in direct patient care. At item level, 14 out of 21 items showed a PPR higher than 10%. Conclusions Results indicate that the French and German translations of the Safety Climate Survey might be a useful measurement instrument for safety climate in Swiss hospital units. Analyses at item level allow for differentiating facets of safety climate into more positive and critical safety climate aspects. PMID:25656302

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Regional Features and Seasonality of Land-Atmosphere Coupling over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chujie; Chen, Haishan; Sun, Shanlei; Xu, Bei; Ongoma, Victor; Zhu, Siguang; Ma, Hedi; Li, Xing

2018-06-01

Land-atmosphere coupling is a key process of the climate system, and various coupling mechanisms have been proposed before based on observational and numerical analyses. The impact of soil moisture (SM) on evapotranspiration (ET) and further surface temperature (ST) is an important aspect of such coupling. Using ERA-Interim data and CLM4.0 offline simulation results, this study further explores the relationships between SM/ST and ET to better understand the complex nature of the land-atmosphere coupling (i.e., spatial and seasonal variations) in eastern China, a typical monsoon area. It is found that two diagnostics of land-atmosphere coupling (i.e., SM-ET correlation and ST-ET correlation) are highly dependent on the climatology of SM and ST. By combining the SM-ET and ST-ET relationships, two "hot spots" of land-atmosphere coupling over eastern China are identified: Southwest China and North China. In Southwest China, ST is relatively high throughout the year, but SM is lowest in spring, resulting in a strong coupling in spring. However, in North China, SM is relatively low throughout the year, but ST is highest in summer, which leads to the strongest coupling in summer. Our results emphasize the dependence of land-atmosphere coupling on the seasonal evolution of climatic conditions and have implications for future studies related to land surface feedbacks.

Temperature and dust profiles of Mars' atmosphere derived from Mars Climate Sounder (Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teanby, N. A.; Irwin, P. G.; Howett, C.; Calcutt, S. B.; Lolachi, R.; Bowles, N. E.; Taylor, F. W.; Schofield, J. T.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.

2007-12-01

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on board NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) primarily operates as a limb sounding infrared radiometer. The small field of view and limb scanning mode allow retrieval of atmospheric temperature and dust properties from the surface up to approximately 80km with 5km vertical resolution. The polar orbit of MRO gives coverage of all latitudes at 3pm and 3am Mars local-time. The ability of MCS to sounds these altitudes at high spatial and temporal resolution gives a unique dataset with which to test our understanding of the Martian atmosphere. It also complements and extends upon previous climatalogical datasets (for example TES). Measured mid-infrared radiances from MCS were analysed using the correlated-k approximation with Oxford's NEMESIS retrieval software. The correlated-k approximation was compared with a line-by-line model to confirm its accuracy under Martian atmospheric conditions. Dust properties were taken from analysis of TES data by Wolff and Clancy (2003). We present profiles of temperature and dust for data covering September to December 2006. During this period Mars' north pole was experiencing summer and the south pole was in winter. Preliminary results show that high altitude warming over the southern winter pole is greater than that predicted by models. Our results will be compared to numerical models of the Martian atmosphere and the implications discussed.

Vertical Profiles Of Temperature And Dust Derived From Mars Climate Sounder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teanby, Nicholas; Irwin, P. G.; Howett, C.; Calcutt, S.; Lolachi, R.; Bowles, N.; Taylor, F.; Schofield, J. T.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.

2007-10-01

Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) on board NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) primarily operates as a limb sounding infrared radiometer. The small field of view and limb scanning mode allow retrieval of temperature and dust properties from the surface up to approximately 80km with 5km vertical resolution. The polar orbit of MRO gives coverage of all latitudes at 3pm and 3am local time. The ability of MCS to sounds these altitudes at high spatial and temporal resolution gives a unique dataset with which to test our understanding of the Martian atmosphere. It also complements and extends upon previous climatalogical datasets (for example TES). Measured mid-infrared radiances from MCS were analysed using the correlated-k approximation with Oxford's NEMESIS retrieval software. The correlated-k approximation was compared with a line-by-line model to confirm its accuracy under Martian atmospheric conditions. Dust properties were taken from analysis of TES data by Wolff and Clancy (2003). We present profiles of temperature and dust for data covering September to December 2006. During this period Mars' north pole was experiencing summer and the south pole was in winter. Preliminary results show that high altitude warming over the southern winter pole is greater than that predicted by models. Our results will be compared to numerical models of the Martian atmosphere and the implications discussed.

Satellite-Enhanced Dynamical Downscaling of Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, A.

2015-12-01

Severe weather events can be the triggers of environmental disasters in regions particularly susceptible to changes in hydrometeorological conditions. In that regard, the reconstruction of past extreme weather events can help in the assessment of vulnerability and risk mitigation actions. Using novel modeling approaches, dynamical downscaling of long-term integrations from global circulation models can be useful for risk analysis, providing more accurate climate information at regional scales. Originally developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) is being used in the dynamical downscaling of global reanalysis, within the South American Hydroclimate Reconstruction Project. Here, RSM combines scale-selective bias correction with assimilation of satellite-based precipitation estimates to downscale extreme weather occurrences. Scale-selective bias correction is a method employed in the downscaling, similar to the spectral nudging technique, in which the downscaled solution develops in agreement with its coarse boundaries. Precipitation assimilation acts on modeled deep-convection, drives the land-surface variables, and therefore the hydrological cycle. During the downscaling of extreme events that took place in Brazil in recent years, RSM continuously assimilated NCEP Climate Prediction Center morphing technique precipitation rates. As a result, RSM performed better than its global (reanalysis) forcing, showing more consistent hydrometeorological fields compared with more sophisticated global reanalyses. Ultimately, RSM analyses might provide better-quality initial conditions for high-resolution numerical predictions in metropolitan areas, leading to more reliable short-term forecasting of severe local storms.

Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

2016-08-01

The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was <4 °C. The effects of soil permeability and groundwater temperature (i.e. viscosity and density) were determined. The influence of impermeable obstacles in otherwise homogeneous ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

The I.A.G. / A.I.G. SEDIBUD Book Project: Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beylich, Achim A.; Dixon, John C.; Zwolinski, Zbigniew

2015-04-01

The currently prepared SEDIBUD Book on "Source-to-Sink Fluxes in Undisturbed Cold Environments" (edited by Achim A. Beylich, John C. Dixon and Zbigniew Zwolinski and published by Cambridge University Press) is summarizing and synthesizing the achievements of the International Association of Geomorphologists` (I.A.G./A.I.G.) Working Group SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments), which has been active since 2005 (http://www.geomorph.org/wg/wgsb.html). Amplified climate change and ecological sensitivity of largely undisturbed polar and high-altitude cold climate environments have been highlighted as key global environmental issues. The effects of projected climate change will change surface environments in cold regions and will alter the fluxes of sediments, nutrients and solutes, but the absence of quantitative data and coordinated geomorphic process monitoring and analysis to understand the sensitivity of the Earth surface environment in these largely undisturbed environments is acute. Our book addresses this existing key knowledge gap. The applied approach of integrating comparable and longer-term field datasets on contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes from a number of different defined cold climate catchment geosystems for better understanding (i) the environmental drivers and rates of contemporary denudational surface processes and (ii) possible effects of projected climate change in cold regions is unique in the field of geomorphology. Largely undisturbed cold climate environments can provide baseline data for modeling the effects of environmental change. The book synthesizes work carried out by numerous SEDIBUD Members over the last decade in numerous cold climate catchment geosystems worldwide. For reaching a global cover of different cold climate environments the book is - after providing an introduction part and a basic part on climate change in cold environments and general implications for solute and sedimentary fluxes - dealing in different defined parts with Sub-Arctic and Arctic Environments, Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic Environments, and Alpine / Mountain Environments. The book includes a synthesis key chapter where comparable datasets on contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes generated during the conducted coordinated research efforts in different cold climate catchment geosystems are integrated with the key goals to (i) identify the main environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and (ii) model possible effects of projected climate change on solute and sedimentary fluxes in cold climate environments. The SEDIBUD Book provides new key findings on environmental drivers and rates of contemporary solute and sedimentary fluxes, and on spatial variability within global cold climate environments. The book will go in production in July 2015.

Sub-pluvial Saqqara and its possible impact on ancient Egyptian civilization in the Old Kingdom Period (4600 - 4100 yrs BP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welc, Fabian; Marks, Leszek

2014-05-01

Geological and geoarchaeological investigations were carried out at several archaeological sites in northern Egypt within the Memphis Necropolis (Saqqara, Abusir, and Giza). Sedimentological analysis of exposures in western Saqqara, excavated by the Polish-Egyptian archaeological team led by Professor Karol Myśliwiec (Institute of Mediterranean and Oriental Cultures, Polish Academy of Sciences), supplied with significant paleoclimatic data and enabled reconstruction of regional climate change during the Old Kingdom Period (4600 - 4100 yrs BP). Potential influence of this climate change on development of the early Egyptian civilization in this area was determined. Examined exposures indicated that during the Old Kingdom Period the area of Saqqara (at present located in a desert) has been many a time flooded with sheet floods, water of which was heavily charged with debris moving down-slope. Performed geochemical and sedimentological analyses proved that climate in the Old Kingdom time was warm and relatively wet. In 4200 - 4100 yrs BP a quick climate change from wet to extremely dry occurred, with occasional stormy winds. These unfavorable climatic conditions were accompanied by catastrophically low seasonal floods of the Nile, resulting in famine and drought recorded in archaeological data and consequently, leading to a disintegration of the Egyptian state. The authors' investigations indicated that a climate change in Egypt in the second half of the 3rd millennium BC is however not as univocal as considered previously. Well-known gradual aridification of the north-eastern Africa, initiated about 5000 yrs BP, has not been unidirectional and was varied regionally. The collected data indicate univocally that there were quasi-cyclic climatic fluctuations. In spite of a distinct trend, the dry period has been interrupted by numerous short wet episodes, occurring during the interval 4600 - 4200 yrs BP and especially at the end of the Old Kingdom Period (ca. 4200 yrs BP). A role of these wet intervals is incontestable and they can represent a sub-pluvial episode with two peaks at about 4600 and 4200 yrs BP, presumably of regional significance for north-eastern Africa. The authors suggest to name this relatively wet period the Saqqara Sub-pluvial. Based on the present knowledge, the extremely dynamic terminal phase of the second peak of the Saqqara Sub-pluvial and the following sudden desertification noted in deposits at archaeological sites in Saqqara and in the adjoining area (Abusir, Giza) should be roughly correlated with global climatic perturbation of the 3rd Bond Event or 4.2 ka Rapid Climate Change. The climate change in that time resulted in a collapse of the Egyptian civilization but also in rapid depopulation of Palestine, disintegration of the Acadian Empire in Mesopotamia and the Harappa Civilization in northwest India. Mechanism of this climate change is investigated within the project funded by National Science Centre in Poland (decision no. DEC-2012/05/B/ST10/00558).

Quantification of landfill methane using modified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's waste model and error function analysis.

PubMed

Govindan, Siva Shangari; Agamuthu, P

2014-10-01

Waste management can be regarded as a cross-cutting environmental 'mega-issue'. Sound waste management practices support the provision of basic needs for general health, such as clean air, clean water and safe supply of food. In addition, climate change mitigation efforts can be achieved through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from waste management operations, such as landfills. Landfills generate landfill gas, especially methane, as a result of anaerobic degradation of the degradable components of municipal solid waste. Evaluating the mode of generation and collection of landfill gas has posted a challenge over time. Scientifically, landfill gas generation rates are presently estimated using numerical models. In this study the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Waste Model is used to estimate the methane generated from a Malaysian sanitary landfill. Key parameters of the model, which are the decay rate and degradable organic carbon, are analysed in two different approaches; the bulk waste approach and waste composition approach. The model is later validated using error function analysis and optimum decay rate, and degradable organic carbon for both approaches were also obtained. The best fitting values for the bulk waste approach are a decay rate of 0.08 y(-1) and degradable organic carbon value of 0.12; and for the waste composition approach the decay rate was found to be 0.09 y(-1) and degradable organic carbon value of 0.08. From this validation exercise, the estimated error was reduced by 81% and 69% for the bulk waste and waste composition approach, respectively. In conclusion, this type of modelling could constitute a sensible starting point for landfills to introduce careful planning for efficient gas recovery in individual landfills. © The Author(s) 2014.

Why we need better predictive models of vegetation phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Andrew; Migliavacca, Mirco; Keenan, Trevor

2014-05-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly affected by climate change, with warmer temperatures causing earlier spring onset and delayed autumn senescence in most temperate and boreal ecosystems. In arid regions where phenology is driven by the seasonality of soil water availability, shifts in the timing, intensity, and total amount of precipitation are, likewise, affecting the seasonality of vegetation activity. Changes in the duration of the growing season have important implications for ecosystem productivity and uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere, as well as site water balance and runoff, microclimate, ecological interactions within and across trophic levels, and numerous feedbacks to the climate system associated with the surface energy budget. However, an outstanding challenge is that existing phenology sub-models used in ecosystem, land surface, and terrestrial biosphere models fail to adequately represent the seasonality, or sensitivity to environmental drivers, of vegetation phenology. This has two implications. First, these models are therefore likely to perform poorly under future climate scenarios. Second, the seasonality of important ecological processes and interactions, as well as biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks, is likely to be misrepresented as a result. Using data from several recent analyses, and focusing on temperate and boreal ecosystems, we will review current challenges associated with modeling vegetation phenology. We will discuss uncertainties associated with phenology model structure, model parameters, and driver sensitivity (forcing, chilling, and photoperiod). We will show why being able to extrapolate and generalize models (and model parameterization) is essential. We will consider added challenges associated with trying to model autumn phenology. Finally, we will use canopy photosynthesis and uptake of CO2 as an example of why improved understanding of the "rhythm of the seasons" is critically important.

A Last Glacial Maximum world-ocean simulation at eddy-permitting resolution - Part 1: Experimental design and basic evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballarotta, M.; Brodeau, L.; Brandefelt, J.; Lundberg, P.; Döös, K.

2013-01-01

Most state-of-the-art climate models include a coarsely resolved oceanic component, which has difficulties in capturing detailed dynamics, and therefore eddy-permitting/eddy-resolving simulations have been developed to reproduce the observed World Ocean. In this study, an eddy-permitting numerical experiment is conducted to simulate the global ocean state for a period of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ~ 26 500 to 19 000 yr ago) and to investigate the improvements due to taking into account these higher spatial scales. The ocean general circulation model is forced by a 49-yr sample of LGM atmospheric fields constructed from a quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation. The initial state and the bottom boundary condition conform to the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) recommendations. Before evaluating the model efficiency in representing the paleo-proxy reconstruction of the surface state, the LGM experiment is in this first part of the investigation, compared with a present-day eddy-permitting hindcast simulation as well as with the available PMIP results. It is shown that the LGM eddy-permitting simulation is consistent with the quasi-equilibrated climate-model simulation, but large discrepancies are found with the PMIP model analyses, probably due to the different equilibration states. The strongest meridional gradients of the sea-surface temperature are located near 40° N and S, this due to particularly large North-Atlantic and Southern-Ocean sea-ice covers. These also modify the locations of the convection sites (where deep-water forms) and most of the LGM Conveyor Belt circulation consequently takes place in a thinner layer than today. Despite some discrepancies with other LGM simulations, a glacial state is captured and the eddy-permitting simulation undertaken here yielded a useful set of data for comparisons with paleo-proxy reconstructions.

Field based measurements of albedo for two candidate perennial cellulosic feedstocks and row crops in Central Illinois

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, J. N.; VanLoocke, A.; Bernacchi, C. J.

2012-12-01

The production of perennial cellulosic feedstocks for bioenergy present the potential to diversify regional economies and the national energy supply, while also serving as a climate 'regulators' due to a number of biogeochemical and biophysical differences relative to row crops. Numerous observationally and modeling based approaches, including life cycle analyses have investigated biogeochemical tradeoffs, such as increased carbon sequestration and biophysical increased water use, associated with growing cellulosic feedstocks. A less understood aspect is the biophysical changes associated with the difference in albedo, which will alter the local energy balance and could cause a local to regional cooling several times larger than that associated with offsetting carbon. To address this factor an experiment consisting of paired fields of Miscanthus and Switchgrass, two of the leading perennial cellulosic feedstock candidates, and traditional row crops was established in central Illinois. Data from the first two growing seasons indicate that this effect is most pronounced during the spring and fall as perennial biofuel crops green up earlier and senesce later than common annual row crops. The albedo of the perennials converges to that of the row crops during the growing season as the canopies develop. During the early winter, before the perennial crops are harvested, the albedo over fallow soybean and maize fields can vary greatly depending on snowfall and, to a lesser extent, soil moisture, whereas perennials show less variation. Thus, perennial biofuel crops also have the potential to buffer the local environment against short-term variations in climate. These factors should be considered when evaluating the tradeoffs and climate-regulation services associated with large-scale planting of bioenergy crops.

The sediment record of Lake Ohrid (Albania/Macedonia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, H.; Wagner, B.; Sulpizio, R.; Zanchetta, G.; Schouten, S.; Leng, M. J.; Wessels, M.; Nowaczyk, N.; Hilgers, A.

2009-12-01

Lake Ohrid, a transboundary lake shared by the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and the Republic of Albania is with its likely Pliocene age, considered to be the oldest existing lake in Europe. Since 2004 numerous sediment successions have been recovered from Lake Ohrid in order to investigate modern and past sedimentation patterns, to establish a tephrostratigraphic and chronological framework, and to infer past climatic and environmental changes. Frequent occurrences of well-dated tephra and cryptotephra layers as well as radiocarbon, electron spin resonance, and luminescence dating allowed the establishment of a chronological framework for the recovered sediment successions. These data revealed that the sediment successions recovered so far in part reach well back into MIS 6. Despite distinct spatial heterogeneity in sediment composition, Lake Ohrid appears to have reacted uniformly to climatic forcing on changes in catchment configuration, limnology and hydrology in the past as evidenced by contemporaneous changes in sediment composition in successions from different parts of the lake basin. The interplay of climatic forced factors has varied significantly in the course of the last glacial-interglacial cycle and led to distinctly different sediment characteristics during glacial and interglacial phases at Lake Ohrid. Beside this general pattern tied to high amplitude climate fluctuations, short-term climatic fluctuations of reduced amplitude are also recorded in the sediment successions and generally well correlated to other paleoclimate records in the Mediterranean. Initial quantitative inferences of past lake surface temperatures using the TEX86 paleothermometer revealed c. 5-6°C lower temperatures in the glacial compared with the interglacial periods. The reconstructed glacial and interglacial temperatures from Lake Ohrid correspond relatively well with temperature anomalies derived from sea surface temperature reconstructions in the marine (-4°C) and pollen-based temperature reconstructions in the terrestrial (-9°C) vicinity. Moreover, the detection of subaquatic terrace levels implies that pronounced climate fluctuations in the past had substantial impact on the hydrological budget of the lake and led to significant lake level lowering. Dating and sedimentological analyses of sediment successions recovered from these subaquatic terrace levels point to significant lake level low stands during MIS 6, MIS 5.5, and during the last glacial inception. In order to recover longer sediment succession extending back into Pliocene times from this promising site an ICDP deep drilling campaign is envisaged and scheduled for 2011.

Weather Forecaster Understanding of Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bol, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Abshire, W. E.

2013-12-01

Weather forecasters, particularly those in broadcasting, are the primary conduit to the public for information on climate and climate change. However, many weather forecasters remain skeptical of model-based climate projections. To address this issue, The COMET Program developed an hour-long online lesson of how climate models work, targeting an audience of weather forecasters. The module draws on forecasters' pre-existing knowledge of weather, climate, and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In order to measure learning outcomes, quizzes were given before and after the lesson. Preliminary results show large learning gains. For all people that took both pre and post-tests (n=238), scores improved from 48% to 80%. Similar pre/post improvement occurred for National Weather Service employees (51% to 87%, n=22 ) and college faculty (50% to 90%, n=7). We believe these results indicate a fundamental misunderstanding among many weather forecasters of (1) the difference between weather and climate models, (2) how researchers use climate models, and (3) how they interpret model results. The quiz results indicate that efforts to educate the public about climate change need to include weather forecasters, a vital link between the research community and the general public.

The Climate Voices Speakers Network: Collaborating with Nontraditional, National Networks to Develop Climate Literacy on a Local Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, K.; Schmidt, C.; Herrin, S.

2015-12-01

How can we leverage the successes of the numerous organizations in the climate change communication arena to build momentum rather than reinvent the wheel? Over the past two years, Climate Voices (climatevoices.org) has established a network of nearly 400 speakers and established partnerships to scale programs that address climate change communication and community engagement. In this presentation, we will present how we have identified and fostered win-win partnerships with organizations, such as GreenFaith Interfaith Partners for the Environment and Rotary International, to reach the broader general public. We will also share how, by drawing on the resources from the National Climate Assessment and the expertise of our own community, we developed and provided our speakers the tools to provide their audiences access to basic climate science - contributing to each audience's ability to understand local impacts, make informed decisions, and gain the confidence to engage in solutions-based actions in response to climate change. We will also discuss how we have created webinar coaching presentations by speakers who aren't climate scientists- and why we have chosen to do so.

Marine planktonic microbes survived climatic instabilities in the past

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro

2012-01-01

In the geological past, changes in climate and tectonic activity are thought to have spurred the tempo of evolutionary change among major taxonomic groups of plants and animals. However, the extent to which these historical contingencies increased the risk of extinction of microbial plankton species remains largely unknown. Here, I analyse fossil records of marine planktonic diatoms and calcareous nannoplankton over the past 65 million years from the world oceans and show that the probability of species' extinction is not correlated with secular changes in climatic instability. Further supporting these results, analyses of genera survivorship curves based on fossil data concurred with the predictions of a birth–death model that simulates the extinction of genera through time assuming stochastically constant rates of speciation and extinction. However, my results also show that these marine microbes responded to exceptional climatic contingencies in a manner that appears to have promoted net diversification. These results highlight the ability of marine planktonic microbes to survive climatic instabilities in the geological past, and point to different mechanisms underlying the processes of speciation and extinction in these micro-organisms. PMID:21775329

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Climate, people, fire and vegetation: new insights into vegetation dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean since the 1st century AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, J.; Paulissen, E.; Kaniewski, D.; Poblome, J.; De Laet, V.; Verstraeten, G.; Waelkens, M.

2012-08-01

Anatolia forms a bridge between Europe, Africa and Asia and is influenced by all three continents in terms of climate, vegetation and human civilisation. Unfortunately, well dated palynological records focussing on the period from the end of the classical Roman period until subrecent times are rare for Anatolia and completely absent for southwest Turkey, resulting in a lacuna in knowledge concerning the interactions of climatic change, human impact, and environmental change in this important region. Two well dated palaeoecological records from the Western Taurus Mountains, Turkey, provide a first relatively detailed record of vegetation dynamics from late Roman times until the present in SW Turkey. Combining pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, sedimentological, archaeological data, and newly developed multivariate numerical analyses, allows for the disentangling of climatic and anthropogenic influences on vegetation change. Results show both the regional pollen signal as well as local soil sediment characteristics respond accurately to shifts in regional climatic conditions. Both climatic as well as anthropogenic change had a strong influence on vegetation dynamics and land use. A moist environmental trend during the late 3rd century caused an increase in marshes and wetlands in the moister valley floors, limiting possibilities for intensive crop cultivation at such locations. A mid 7th century shift to pastoralism coincided with a climatic deterioration as well as the start of Arab incursions into the region, the former driving the way in which the vegetation developed afterwards. Resurgence in agriculture was observed in the study during the mid 10th century AD, coinciding with the Medieval Climate Anomaly. An abrupt mid 12th century decrease in agriculture is linked to socio-political change, rather than the onset of the Little Ice Age. Similarly, gradual deforestation occurring from the 16th century onwards has been linked to changes in lands use during Ottoman times. The pollen data reveals that the old model of a fast rise in Pinus pollen after the end of the Beyşehir Occupation Phase is not necessarily accurate. The notion of high Pinus pollen percentages indicating an open landscape incapable of countering the influx of pine pollen is also deemed unrealistic. While multiple fires occurred in the region through time, they were never a major influence on vegetation dynamics and were mostly linked to increased abundance of pine forests, rather than the presence of human impact or of specifically wet or dry environmental conditions. While this study reveals much new information concerning the impact of climate change and human occupation on the environment, more studies from SW turkey are required in order to properly quantify the range of the observed phenomena and the magnitude of their impacts.

Potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems of the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, M.V.; Pace, M.L.; Mather, J.R.; Murdoch, Peter S.; Howarth, R.W.; Folt, C.L.; Chen, C.-Y.; Hemond, Harold F.; Flebbe, P.A.; Driscoll, C.T.

1997-01-01

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 ??CO2 atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3-5??C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic Stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An online-coupled NWP/ACT model with conserved Lagrangian levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sørensen, B.; Kaas, E.; Lauritzen, P. H.

2012-04-01

Numerical weather and climate modelling is under constant development. Semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian (SISL) models have proven to be numerically efficient in both short-range weather forecasts and climate models, due to the ability to use long time steps. Chemical/aerosol feedback mechanism are becoming more and more relevant in NWP as well as climate models, since the biogenic and anthropogenic emissions can have a direct effect on the dynamics and radiative properties of the atmosphere. To include chemical feedback mechanisms in the NWP models, on-line coupling is crucial. In 3D semi-Lagrangian schemes with quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinates the Lagrangian levels are remapped to Eulerian model levels each time step. This remapping introduces an undesirable tendency to smooth sharp gradients and creates unphysical numerical diffusion in the vertical distribution. A semi-Lagrangian advection method is introduced, it combines an inherently mass conserving 2D semi-Lagrangian scheme, with a SISL scheme employing both hybrid vertical coordinates and a fully Lagrangian vertical coordinate. This minimizes the vertical diffusion and thus potentially improves the simulation of the vertical profiles of moisture, clouds, and chemical constituents. Since the Lagrangian levels suffer from traditional Lagrangian limitations caused by the convergence and divergence of the flow, remappings to the Eulerian model levels are generally still required - but this need only be applied after a number of time steps - unless dynamic remapping methods are used. For this several different remapping methods has been implemented. The combined scheme is mass conserving, consistent, and multi-tracer efficient.

Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

2016-05-01

Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

PubMed

Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

2016-05-01

Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

A vulnerability and risk assessment of SEPTA's regional rail : a transit climate change adaptation assessment pilot.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

This final report for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Pilot describes the actions : taken, information gathered, analyses performed, and lessons learned throughout the pilot project. This report d...

Assessing, understanding, and conveying the state of the Arctic sea ice cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, D. K.; Richter-Menge, J. A.; Rigor, I.; Parkinson, C. L.; Weatherly, J. W.; Nghiem, S. V.; Proshutinsky, A.; Overland, J. E.

2003-12-01

Recent studies indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is undergoing significant climate-induced changes, affecting both its extent and thickness. Satellite-derived estimates of Arctic sea ice extent suggest a reduction of about 3% per decade since 1978. Ice thickness data from submarines suggest a net thinning of the sea ice cover since 1958. Changes (including oscillatory changes) in atmospheric circulation and the thermohaline properties of the upper ocean have also been observed. These changes impact not only the Arctic, but the global climate system and are likely accelerated by such processes as the ice-albedo feedback. It is important to continue and expand long-term observations of these changes to (a) improve the fundamental understanding of the role of the sea ice cover in the global climate system and (b) use the changes in the sea ice cover as an early indicator of climate change. This is a formidable task that spans a range of temporal and spatial scales. Fortunately, there are numerous tools that can be brought to bear on this task, including satellite remote sensing, autonomous buoys, ocean moorings, field campaigns and numerical models. We suggest the integrated and coordinated use of these tools during the International Polar Year to monitor the state of the Arctic sea ice cover and investigate its governing processes. For example, satellite remote sensing provides the large-scale snapshots of such basic parameters as ice distribution, melt zone, and cloud fraction at intervals of half a day to a week. Buoys and moorings can contribute high temporal resolution and can measure parameters currently unavailable from space including ice thickness, internal ice temperature, and ocean temperature and salinity. Field campaigns can be used to explore, in detail, the processes that govern the ice cover. Numerical models can be used to assess the character of the changes in the ice cover and predict their impacts on the rest of the climate system. This work affords extraordinary opportunities for outreach activities, because of the public interest in both the Arctic and climate change. Data can be streamed to public web sites in near real time, as can photographs and commentaries from field camps. The breadth of activities affords considerable opportunities to engage the next generation of researchers in such diverse fields as computer science, engineering, and geophysics.

Adaptations to Climate-Mediated Selective Pressures in Humans

PubMed Central

Hancock, Angela M.; Witonsky, David B.; Alkorta-Aranburu, Gorka; Beall, Cynthia M.; Gebremedhin, Amha; Sukernik, Rem; Utermann, Gerd; Pritchard, Jonathan K.; Coop, Graham; Di Rienzo, Anna

2011-01-01

Humans inhabit a remarkably diverse range of environments, and adaptation through natural selection has likely played a central role in the capacity to survive and thrive in extreme climates. Unlike numerous studies that used only population genetic data to search for evidence of selection, here we scan the human genome for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations. We find a striking enrichment of genic and nonsynonymous SNPs relative to non-genic SNPs among those that are strongly correlated with these climate variables. Among the most extreme signals, several overlap with those from GWAS, including SNPs associated with pigmentation and autoimmune diseases. Further, we find an enrichment of strong signals in gene sets related to UV radiation, infection and immunity, and cancer. Our results imply that adaptations to climate shaped the spatial distribution of variation in humans. PMID:21533023