Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

PubMed

Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

2018-04-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

Final Progress Report for Collaborative Research: Aging of Black Carbon during Atmospheric Transport: Understanding Results from the DOE’s 2010 CARES and 2012 ClearfLo Campaigns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazzoleni, Claudio; Subramanian, R.

2016-08-31

Over the course of this project, we have analyzed data and samples from the Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) and the Clear air for London (ClearfLo) campaign, as well as conducted or participated in laboratory experiments designed to better understand black carbon mixing state and climate-relevant properties. The laboratory campaigns took place at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Carnegie Mellon University to study various climate-relevant aerosol properties of different sources of soot mixing with secondary organic aerosol precursors. Results from some of these activities were summarized in the previous progress report. This final report presents the manuscriptsmore » that have been published (many in the period since the last progress report), lists presentations at different conferences based on grant-related activities, and presents some results that are likely to be submitted for publication in the near future.« less

Remote Sensing of Aerosols from Satellites: Why Has It Been Do Difficult to Quantify Aerosol-Cloud Interactions for Climate Assessment, and How Can We Make Progress?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, Ralph A.

2015-01-01

The organizers of the National Academy of Sciences Arthur M. Sackler Colloquia Series on Improving Our Fundamental Understanding of the Role of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in the Climate System would like to post Ralph Kahn's presentation entitled Remote Sensing of Aerosols from Satellites: Why has it been so difficult to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions for climate assessment, and how can we make progress? to their public website.

On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Kennedy, John; Dee, Dick; Allan, R.; O'Neill, Alan

2013-01-01

The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

[Research progress in water use efficiency of plants under global climate change].

PubMed

Wang, Qing-wei; Yu, Da-pao; Dai, Li-min; Zhou, Li; Zhou, Wang-ming; Qi, Guang; Qi, Lin; Ye, Yu-jing

2010-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most concerned environmental problems in the world since the 1980s, giving significant effects on the plant productivity and the water transport and use patterns. These effects would be reflected in the water use efficiency (WUE) of individual plants, communities, and ecosystems, and ultimately, in the vegetation distribution pattern, species composition, and ecosystem structure. To study the WUE of plants would help to the understanding and forecasting of the responses of terrestrial vegetation to global climate change, and to the adoption of adaptive strategies. This paper introduced the concept of plant WUE and the corresponding measurement techniques at the scales of leaf, individual plant, community, and ecosystem, and reviewed the research progress in the effects of important climatic factors such as elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration, precipitation pattern, nitrogen deposition, and their combination on the plant WUE, as well as the variation characteristics of plant WUE and the adaptive survival strategies of plants under different site conditions. Some problems related to plant WUE research were pointed out, and the future research directions in the context of global climate change were prospected.

Ad hoc committee on global climate issues: Annual report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.; Hanson, B.M.B.

2000-01-01

The AAPG Ad Hoc Committee on Global Climate Issues has studied the supposition of human-induced climate change since the committee's inception in January 1998. This paper details the progress and findings of the committee through June 1999. At that time there had been essentially no geologic input into the global climate change debate. The following statements reflect the current state of climate knowledge from the geologic perspective as interpreted by the majority of the committee membership. The committee recognizes that new data could change its conclusions. The earth's climate is constantly changing owing to natural variability in earth processes. Natural climate variability over recent geological time is greater than reasonable estimates of potential human-induced greenhouse gas changes. Because no tool is available to test the supposition of human-induced climate change and the range of natural variability is so great, there is no discernible human influence on global climate at this time.

Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

PubMed Central

Franks, Steven J; Weber, Jennifer J; Aitken, Sally N

2014-01-01

As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes in many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic changes are directly caused by climate change, and whether they result from phenotypic plasticity or evolution, are active areas of investigation. Here, we review terrestrial plant studies addressing these questions. Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change are clearly occurring. Of the 38 studies that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic or evolutionary responses, with 26 studies showing both. These responses, however, may be insufficient to keep pace with climate change, as indicated by eight of 12 studies that examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence for whether evolutionary responses are adaptive, and whether they are directly caused by contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors that will likely influence the extent of plastic and evolutionary responses, including patterns of environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics including generation time and breeding system, and degree and direction of gene flow. Future studies with standardized methodologies, especially those that use direct approaches assessing responses to climate change over time, and sharing of data through public databases, will facilitate better predictions of the capacity for plant populations to respond to rapid climate change. PMID:24454552

How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?

PubMed

HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J

2013-09-01

Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Introduction. Progress in Earth science and climate studies.

PubMed

Thompson, J Michael T

2008-12-28

In this introductory paper, I review the 'visions of the future' articles prepared by top young scientists for the second of the two Christmas 2008 Triennial Issues of Phil. Trans. R. Soc.A, devoted respectively to astronomy and Earth science. Topics covered in the Earth science issue include: trace gases in the atmosphere; dynamics of the Antarctic circumpolar current; a study of the boundary between the Earth's rocky mantle and its iron core; and two studies of volcanoes and their plumes. A final section devoted to ecology and climate covers: the mathematical modelling of plant-soil interactions; the effects of the boreal forests on the Earth's climate; the role of the past palaeoclimate in testing and calibrating today's numerical climate models; and the evaluation of these models including the quantification of their uncertainties.

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

PubMed Central

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China’s rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8–85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons. PMID:25530812

Delays in reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress in improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. As certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrhoeal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress towards reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls owing to non-climate reasons.

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change.

PubMed

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H; Carlton, Elizabeth J; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J; Remais, Justin V

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons.

Solar diameter measurements for study of Sun climate coupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, H. A.

1981-01-01

Variability in solar shape and diameters was examined as a possible probe of an important climatic driving function, solar luminosity variability. The techniques and facilities developed for measuring the solar diameter were used. The observing program and the requisite data reduction were conducted simultaneously. The development of a technique to calibrate the scale in the telescope field progressed to the design and construction phase.

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Progress Towards an Interdisciplinary Science of Plant Phenology: Building Predictions Across Space, Time and Species Diversity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan

2013-01-01

Climate change has brought renewed interest in the study of plant phenology - the timing of life history events. Data on shifting phenologies with warming have accumulated rapidly, yet research has been comparatively slow to explain the diversity of phenological responses observed across latitudes, growing seasons and species. Here, we outline recent efforts to synthesize perspectives on plant phenology across the fields of ecology, climate science and evolution. We highlight three major axes that vary among these disciplines: relative focus on abiotic versus biotic drivers of phenology, on plastic versus genetic drivers of intraspecific variation, and on cross-species versus autecological approaches. Recent interdisciplinary efforts, building on data covering diverse species and climate space, have found a greater role of temperature in controlling phenology at higher latitudes and for early-flowering species in temperate systems. These efforts have also made progress in understanding the tremendous diversity of responses across species by incorporating evolutionary relatedness, and linking phenological flexibility to invasions and plant performance. Future research with a focus on data collection in areas outside the temperate mid-latitudes and across species' ranges, alongside better integration of how risk and investment shape plant phenology, offers promise for further progress.

Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

PubMed Central

Smith, Jason A.

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

Adaptation: Planning for climate change and its effects on federal lands

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; David L. Peterson; Michael J. Furniss

2012-01-01

National forest managers are charged with tackling the effects of climate change on the natural resources under their care. The Forest Service National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change and the Climate Change Performance Scorecard require managers to make significant progress in addressing climate change by 2015. To help land managers meet this challenge,...

Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

2012-12-01

In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

Progress report of the Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force : recommended actions in support of a national climate change adaptation strategy

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-05

The scope, severity, and pace of : future climate change impacts are : difficult to predict. However, : observations and long-term scientific : trends indicate that the potential : impacts of a changing climate on : society and the environment will b...

Developing a Learning Progression for Sea Level Rise, a Major Impact of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; McGinnis, J. Randy; McDonald, R. Christopher; Hestness, Emily

2016-01-01

We present research from an investigation on developing a learning progression (LP) for sea level rise (SLR), a major effect of global climate change. We began our research by drafting a hypothetical LP for sea level rise, informed by extant knowledge of the topic in the scientific community, in science education literature, and in science…

Community-level climate change vulnerability research: trends, progress, and future directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDowell, Graham; Ford, James; Jones, Julie

2016-03-01

This study systematically identifies, characterizes, and critically evaluates community-level climate change vulnerability assessments published over the last 25 years (n = 274). We find that while the field has advanced considerably in terms of conceptual framing and methodological approaches, key shortcomings remain in how vulnerability is being studied at the community-level. We argue that vulnerability research needs to more critically engage with the following: methods for evaluating future vulnerability, the relevance of vulnerability research for decision-making, interdependencies between social and ecological systems, attention to researcher / subject power dynamics, critical interpretation of key terms, and consideration of the potentially positive opportunities presented by a changing climate. Addressing these research needs is necessary for generating knowledge that supports climate-affected communities in navigating the challenges and opportunities ahead.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Implication of global climate change on the distribution and activity of Phytophthora ramorum

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette

2009-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and activity of several forest pathogens. Boland et al. (2004) suggested that climate change might affect pathogen establishment, rate of disease progress, and the duration of...

Measuring progress of the global sea level observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth, Philip L.; Aarup, Thorkild; Merrifield, Mark; Mitchum, Gary T.; Le Provost, Christian

Sea level is such a fundamental parameter in the sciences of oceanography geophysics, and climate change, that in the mid-1980s, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) established the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). GLOSS was to improve the quantity and quality of data provided to the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL), and thereby, data for input to studies of long-term sea level change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It would also provide the key data needed for international programs, such as the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and later, the Climate Variability and Predictability Programme (CLIVAR).GLOSS is now one of the main observation components of the Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) of IOC and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Progress and deficiencies in GLOSS were presented in July to the 22nd IOC Assembly at UNESCO in Paris and are contained in the GLOSS Assessment Report (GAR) [IOC, 2003a].

Progress, Exponential Growth and Post-Growth Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Irwin, Ruth

2017-01-01

Teleological progress is the underlying motif of modern culture, and informs education, innovation, and economic development. Progress includes a gradual increase in consumerism. Since the 1940s, the Keynesian Settlement and its embedded belief in progress is legislated in exponential 2-3% economic growth. Unfortunately, climate change is a direct…

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE PAGES

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth; ...

2014-11-02

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Delays in Reducing Waterborne and Water-related Infectious Diseases in China under Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica; Carlton, Elizabeth

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) infrastructure and access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation, and 401 million people lacked access to household piped water. Infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in climate, particularly temperature, and WSH conditions. To explore possible impacts of climate change on these diseases in China in 2020 and 2030, we coupled estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal disease and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models using four emissions pathways, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios and projected demographic changes. By 2030, the projected impacts would delaymore » China’s historically rapid progress toward reducing the burden of WSH-attributable infectious disease by 8-85 months. This developmental delay provides a key summary measure of the impact of climate change in China, and in other societies undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change.« less

Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Bertram, Christoph; Kriegler, Elmar; Meinshausen, Malte; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2013-09-01

While the international community aims to limit global warming to below 2 ° C to prevent dangerous climate change, little progress has been made towards a global climate agreement to implement the emissions reductions required to reach this target. We use an integrated energy-economy-climate modeling system to examine how a further delay of cooperative action and technology availability affect climate mitigation challenges. With comprehensive emissions reductions starting after 2015 and full technology availability we estimate that maximum 21st century warming may still be limited below 2 ° C with a likely probability and at moderate economic impacts. Achievable temperature targets rise by up to ˜0.4 ° C if the implementation of comprehensive climate policies is delayed by another 15 years, chiefly because of transitional economic impacts. If carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unavailable, the lower limit of achievable targets rises by up to ˜0.3 ° C. Our results show that progress in international climate negotiations within this decade is imperative to keep the 2 ° C target within reach.

Evolving Views on a Dynamic Greenhouse Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollis, Chris; Huber, Matthew

2009-06-01

Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene (CBEP 2009) Conference; Wellington, New Zealand, 12-15 January 2009; The Paleogene (65-24 million years ago) was a dynamic period in Earth's history in which major mammal groups became established and diversified, rapid and repeated extreme global warming events occurred, and climate began its stuttering progression from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate state. With atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the range projected to occur over the next several centuries (>1000 parts per million), the Paleogene is also a window into our future (see J. C. Zachos et al., Nature, 451, 279-283, 2008). Long-standing interest in understanding the causes and consequences of global change in the Paleogene and the current timeliness of greenhouse climate research explain why conferences are periodically devoted to the climatic and biotic events of the Paleogene. The 2009 conference, held in New Zealand, attracted 130 participants from 20 countries. Presentations demonstrated substantial progress in new climate proxy development, new multiproxy approaches, and closer integration of paleoclimate records with climate models, consolidating around three main issues.

Recent directions taken in water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, Harry F.

1994-01-01

Understanding and predicting global change is a major scientific focus of the late 20th century. Although atmospheric scientists have made substantial progress in developing models that account for many components of the climate system, significant progress is needed in understanding processes associated with the exchange of water, energy, and carbon between terrestrial systems and the atmosphere.To strengthen terrestrial process research, especially research associated with the interactions of water, energy, gases, nutrients, and vegetation, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an intensive study of Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB). WEBB is aimed at improving understanding of processes controlling terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical fluxes, their interactions, and their relations to climatic variables; and the ability to predict continental water, energy, and biogeochemical budgets over a range of spatial and temporal scales.

Global Climate Change: Using Field Studies to Prepare the Next Generation of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, T. C.; Hare, J.

2004-05-01

Global Climate Change is a new and invigorating concept in the pre-college classroom. To some it portends the altering of the Earth's climate by introducing anthropogenic influences and for others the natural progression of the Earth's systems. Regardless, climate change involves a plethora of environmental interactions and comprehension is a challenge for both teachers and students. This paper addresses a field studies program that prepares students to complete research projects associated with climate models affecting montane environments. It emphasizes a partnership between researchers from universities, government agencies, and public schools and their support of pre-college students in inquiry learning and research activities. Beginning in 1994 students from a Pennsylvania high school and schools in Scotland have engaged in biannual holistic studies of montane and glacial environments with the objective of completing investigations concerning the energy budgets of these environments. This paper will focus on 2000 and 2002, and the support and partnership of Dr. Jeff Hare and CIRES in designing, supporting, and providing professional interpretations,while assisting teachers and students toward the completion of recognized papers regarding climate studies. Introducing students to the employment and operation of complex field equipment will be discussed.

Progress in Earth System Modeling since the ENIAC Calculation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, I.

2009-05-01

The success of the first numerical weather prediction experiment on the ENIAC computer in 1950 was hinged on the expansion of the meteorological observing network, which led to theoretical advances in atmospheric dynamics and subsequently the implementation of the simplified equations on the computer. This paper briefly reviews the progress in Earth System Modeling and climate observations, and suggests a strategy to sustain and expand the observations needed to advance climate science and prediction.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015.

PubMed

2016-02-01

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The Panels provide a detailed assessment report every four years. The most recent 2014 Quadrennial Assessment by the EEAP was published as a special issue of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). The next Quadrennial Assessment will be published in 2018/2019. In the interim, the EEAP generally produces an annual update or progress report of the relevant scientific findings. The present progress report for 2015 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change.

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

An overview of mineral dust modeling over East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Qian, Yun; Zhao, Chun; Kang, Litai; Yang, Ben; Wang, Yong; Liu, Yuzhi; Yuan, Tiangang; Wang, Tianhe; Ma, Xiaojun; Zhang, Guolong

2017-08-01

East Asian dust (EAD) exerts considerable impacts on the energy balance and climate/climate change of the earth system through its influence on solar and terrestrial radiation, cloud properties, and precipitation efficiency. Providing an accurate description of the life cycle and climate effects of EAD is therefore critical to better understanding of climate change and socioeconomic development in East Asia and even worldwide. Dust modeling has undergone substantial development since the late 1990s, associated with improved understanding of the role of EAD in the earth system. Here, we review the achievements and progress made in recent decades in terms of dust modeling research, including dust emissions, long-range transport, radiative forcing (RF), and climate effects of dust particles over East Asia. Numerous efforts in dust/EAD modeling have been directed towards furnishing more sophisticated physical and chemical processes into the models on higher spatial resolutions. Meanwhile, more systematic observations and more advanced retrieval methods for instruments that address EAD related science issues have made it possible to evaluate model results and quantify the role of EAD in the earth system, and to further reduce the uncertainties in EAD simulations. Though much progress has been made, large discrepancies and knowledge gaps still exist among EAD simulations. The deficiencies and limitations that pertain to the performance of the EAD simulations referred to in the present study are also discussed.

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient cro...

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Progress and Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a distributed climate-scenario simulation exercise for historical model intercomparison and future climate change conditions with participation of multiple crop and agricultural trade modeling groups around the world. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of risk of hunger and world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Recent progress and the current status of AgMIP will be presented, highlighting three areas of activity: preliminary results from crop pilot studies, outcomes from regional workshops, and emerging scientific challenges. AgMIP crop modeling efforts are being led by pilot studies, which have been established for wheat, maize, rice, and sugarcane. These crop-specific initiatives have proven instrumental in testing and contributing to AgMIP protocols, as well as creating preliminary results for aggregation and input to agricultural trade models. Regional workshops are being held to encourage collaborations and set research activities in motion for key agricultural areas. The first of these workshops was hosted by Embrapa and UNICAMP and held in Campinas, Brazil. Outcomes from this meeting have informed crop modeling research activities within South America, AgMIP protocols, and future regional workshops. Several scientific challenges have emerged and are currently being addressed by AgMIP researchers. Areas of particular interest include geospatial weather generation, ensemble methods for climate scenarios and crop models, spatial aggregation of field-scale yields to regional and global production, and characterization of future changes in climate variability.

Campus Leadership's Influence in Implementing a Community College's Sustainability Goals: A Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Barbara A.

2012-01-01

The case study documented one large, multicampus community college's progress in implementing sustainability goals outlined in the American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment (ACUPCC). The case study examined the role of branch-campus presidents and the college president in institutionalizing sustainability. Responses…

Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigorov, Ivo

2010-05-01

Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

Cloud Feedbacks in the Climate System: A Critical Review.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Graeme L.

2005-01-01

This paper offers a critical review of the topic of cloud-climate feedbacks and exposes some of the underlying reasons for the inherent lack of understanding of these feedbacks and why progress might be expected on this important climate problem in the coming decade. Although many processes and related parameters come under the influence of clouds, it is argued that atmospheric processes fundamentally govern the cloud feedbacks via the relationship between the atmospheric circulations, cloudiness, and the radiative and latent heating of the atmosphere. It is also shown how perturbations to the atmospheric radiation budget that are induced by cloud changes in response to climate forcing dictate the eventual response of the global-mean hydrological cycle of the climate model to climate forcing. This suggests that cloud feedbacks are likely to control the bulk precipitation efficiency and associated responses of the planet's hydrological cycle to climate radiative forcings.The paper provides a brief overview of the effects of clouds on the radiation budget of the earth-atmosphere system and a review of cloud feedbacks as they have been defined in simple systems, one being a system in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) and others relating to simple feedback ideas that regulate tropical SSTs. The systems perspective is reviewed as it has served as the basis for most feedback analyses. What emerges is the importance of being clear about the definition of the system. It is shown how different assumptions about the system produce very different conclusions about the magnitude and sign of feedbacks. Much more diligence is called for in terms of defining the system and justifying assumptions. In principle, there is also neither any theoretical basis to justify the system that defines feedbacks in terms of global-time-mean changes in surface temperature nor is there any compelling empirical evidence to do so. The lack of maturity of feedback analysis methods also suggests that progress in understanding climate feedback will require development of alternative methods of analysis.It has been argued that, in view of the complex nature of the climate system, and the cumbersome problems encountered in diagnosing feedbacks, understanding cloud feedback will be gleaned neither from observations nor proved from simple theoretical argument alone. The blueprint for progress must follow a more arduous path that requires a carefully orchestrated and systematic combination of model and observations. Models provide the tool for diagnosing processes and quantifying feedbacks while observations provide the essential test of the model's credibility in representing these processes. While GCM climate and NWP models represent the most complete description of all the interactions between the processes that presumably establish the main cloud feedbacks, the weak link in the use of these models lies in the cloud parameterization imbedded in them. Aspects of these parameterizations remain worrisome, containing levels of empiricism and assumptions that are hard to evaluate with current global observations. Clearly observationally based methods for evaluating cloud parameterizations are an important element in the road map to progress.Although progress in understanding the cloud feedback problem has been slow and confused by past analysis, there are legitimate reasons outlined in the paper that give hope for real progress in the future.

Frozen road operation improvements.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-05-01

A research study in 1996-1997, sponsored by WisDOT, was undertaken by the PI of this proposal to develop a computer model to correlate climate : and pavement data for the year in progress in order to project when to impose and lift weight restriction...

An overview of mineral dust modeling over East Asia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Siyu; Huang, Jianping; Qian, Yun

Dust aerosol, one of the most abundant aerosol species in the atmosphere, has significant impacts on the energy balance and climatic feedback of the Earth system through its influence on solar and terrestrial radiation as well as clouds. East Asia is the one of prominent regions of dust generation. The East Asia dust life cycle and associated radiative and climatic effects are the outstanding science issues in understanding climate change at regional and even global scale. In the past decades, numerous dust models have been developed and applied to comprehend a series of dust-related processes studies, including emission, transport, andmore » deposition, and to understand the effects of dust aerosol on the radiation and climate over East Asian. In this paper, we review the recent achievements and progresses in East Asian dust modeling research and discuss the potential challenges in future studies.« less

Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

2017-01-01

Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Global Climatic Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

1989-01-01

Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

Enhancing STEM coursework at MSIs through the AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abshire, W. E.; Mills, E. W.; Slough, S. W.; Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Nugnes, K. A.

2017-12-01

The AMS Education Program celebrates a successful completion to its AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project. The project was funded for 6 years (2011-2017) through the National Science Foundation (NSF). It introduced and enhanced geoscience and/or sustainability-focused course components at minority-serving institutions (MSIs) across the U.S., many of which are signatories to the President's Climate Leadership Commitments, administered by Second Nature, and/or members of the Louis Stokes Alliances for Minority Participation. The Project introduced AMS Climate Studies curriculum to approximately 130 faculty representing 113 MSIs. Each year a cohort of, on average, 25 faculty attended a course implementation workshop where they were immersed in the course materials, received presentations from high-level speakers, and trained as change agents for their local institutions. This workshop was held in the Washington, DC area in collaboration with Second Nature, NOAA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Howard University, and other local climate educational and research institutions. Following, faculty introduced and enhanced geoscience curricula on their local campuses with AMS Climate Studies course materials, thereby bringing change from within. Faculty were then invited to the following AMS Annual Meeting to report on their AMS Climate Studies course implementation progress, reconnect with their colleagues, and learn new science presented at the meeting. A longitudinal survey was administered to all Climate Diversity Project faculty participants who attended the course implementation workshops. The survey goals were to assess the effectiveness of the Project in helping faculty implement/enhance their institutional climate science offering, share best practices in offering AMS Climate Studies, and analyze the usefulness of course materials. Results will be presented during this presentation. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project builds on highly successful, NSF-supported diversity projects for the AMS Weather and Ocean Studies courses conducted from 2001-2008. As a whole, AMS Climate, Weather, and Ocean Studies courses have activated more than 400 institutional licenses from MSIs and impacted more than 25,000 students.

Combating Climate Change through Quality Education. Policy Brief 2010-03

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Allison

2010-01-01

Climate change threatens to undo and even reverse the progress made toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and poses one of the most serious challenges to reducing global poverty for the international community. However, the education sector offers a currently untapped opportunity to combat climate change. There is a clear…

Mathematics applied to the climate system: outstanding challenges and recent progress

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul D.; Cullen, Michael J. P.; Davey, Michael K.; Huthnance, John M.

2013-01-01

The societal need for reliable climate predictions and a proper assessment of their uncertainties is pressing. Uncertainties arise not only from initial conditions and forcing scenarios, but also from model formulation. Here, we identify and document three broad classes of problems, each representing what we regard to be an outstanding challenge in the area of mathematics applied to the climate system. First, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of simple physically based models of the global climate. Second, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of the components of complex models such as general circulation models. Third, there is the problem of the development and evaluation of appropriate statistical frameworks. We discuss these problems in turn, emphasizing the recent progress made by the papers presented in this Theme Issue. Many pressing challenges in climate science require closer collaboration between climate scientists, mathematicians and statisticians. We hope the papers contained in this Theme Issue will act as inspiration for such collaborations and for setting future research directions. PMID:23588054

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

2013-12-01

Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed. © 2013.

Climate change and human infectious diseases: A synthesis of research findings from global and spatio-temporal perspectives.

PubMed

Liang, Lu; Gong, Peng

2017-06-01

The life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents are inextricably linked with climate. In spite of a growing level of interest and progress in determining climate change effects on infectious disease, the debate on the potential health outcomes remains polarizing, which is partly attributable to the varying effects of climate change, different types of pathogen-host systems, and spatio-temporal scales. We summarize the published evidence and show that over the past few decades, the reported negative or uncertain responses of infectious diseases to climate change has been growing. A feature of the research tendency is the focus on temperature and insect-borne diseases at the local and decadal scale. Geographically, regions experiencing higher temperature anomalies have been given more research attention; unfortunately, the Earth's most vulnerable regions to climate variability and extreme events have been less studied. From local to global scales, agreements on the response of infectious diseases to climate change tend to converge. So far, an abundance of findings have been based on statistical methods, with the number of mechanistic studies slowly growing. Research gaps and trends identified in this study should be addressed in the future. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo; Bordoni, Simona; Kaspi, Yohai; Kuwano-Yoshida, Akira; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa; O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Sutton, Rowan; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zolina, Olga

2018-01-01

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical-extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

PubMed

Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Bai, Yuqi; Byass, Peter; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Colbourn, Tim; Cox, Peter; Davies, Michael; Depledge, Michael; Depoux, Anneliese; Dominguez-Salas, Paula; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Flahault, Antoine; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Johnson, Anne; Kelman, Ilan; Kovats, Sari; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Morrissey, Karyn; Murray, Kris; Neville, Tara; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Parthemore, Christine; Pencheon, David; Robinson, Elizabeth; Schütte, Stefanie; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy; Vineis, Paolo; Wilkinson, Paul; Wheeler, Nicola; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony

2017-03-18

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

US Climate Variability and Predictability Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Project- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patterson, Mike

The US CLIVAR Project Office administers the US CLIVAR Program with its mission to advance understanding and prediction of climate variability and change across timescales with an emphasis on the role of the ocean and its interaction with other elements of the Earth system. The Project Office promotes and facilitates scientific collaboration within the US and international climate and Earth science communities, addressing priority topics from subseasonal to centennial climate variability and change; the global energy imbalance; the ocean’s role in climate, water, and carbon cycles; climate and weather extremes; and polar climate changes. This project provides essential one-year supportmore » of the Project Office, enabling the participation of US scientists in the meetings of the US CLIVAR bodies that guide scientific planning and implementation, including the scientific steering committee that establishes program goals and evaluates progress of activities to address them, the science team of funded investigators studying the ocean overturning circulation in the Atlantic, and two working groups tackling the priority research topics of Arctic change influence on midlatitude climate and weather extremes and the decadal-scale widening of the tropical belt.« less

EVALUATING CROPGRO-SOYBEAN PERFORMANCE FOR USE IN CLIMATE IMPACT STUDIES. (R824997)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Mock climate summit: teaching and assessing learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, D.; Gautier, C.; Bazerman, C.

2003-04-01

This paper will demonstrate the effectiveness of a Mock Climate Summit as a pedagogical approach for teaching the science and policy aspects of global climate change. The Mock Climate Summit is a student-centered course simulating the Conference of the Parties (COP) where international environmental protocols are negotiated. Compared to traditional lecture-based methods common in the geoscience classroom, the Mock Climate Summit uses negotiations and arguments to teach the interactions between these two “spheres” and demonstrate the depth and breadth of these interactions. Through a detailed assessment of students’ dialogue transcribed from video and audio tapes, we found that the nature of the student dialogue matures rapidly as they are given multiple opportunities to present, negotiate and argue a specific topic. Students’ dialogue progress from hypothetical (what-if) scenarios to action-oriented scenarios and implementation plans. The progression of the students’ dialogue shows increased comfort with the communities’ discourse as they take ownership of the point-of-view associated with their assumed roles.

Mock Climate Summit: Teaching and Assessing Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schweizer, D.; Gautier, C.; Bazerman, C.

2003-04-01

This paper will demonstrate the effectiveness of a Mock Climate Summit as a pedagogical for teaching the science and policy aspects of global climate change. The Mock Climate Summit is a student-centered course simulating the Conference of the Parties (COP) where international environmental protocols are negotiated. Compared to traditional lecture-based methods common in the geoscience classroom, the Mock Climate Summit uses negotiations and arguments to teach the interactions between these two "spheres" and demonstrate the depth and breadth of these interactions. Through a detailed assessment of students' dialogue transcribed from video and audio tapes, we found that the nature of the student dialogue matures rapidly as they are given multiple opportunities to present, negotiate and argue a specific topic. Students' dialogue progress from hypothetical (what-if) scenarios to action-oriented scenarios and implementation plans. The progression of the students' dialogue shows increased comfort with the communities' discourse as they take ownership of the point-of-view associated with their assumed roles.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

PubMed

Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

Climate Ready Estuaries Progress Reports

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate Ready Estuaries has supported adaptation activities in National Estuary Programs since 2008. In 2012, the program partnered with 23 NEPs, completed a pilot project with water utilities, and held workshops. Download annual reports from 2009-2012.

Practical Applications of Space Systems, Supporting Paper 1: Weather and Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Academy of Sciences - National Research Council, Washington, DC. Assembly of Engineering.

This report summarizes the findings of one of fourteen panels that studied progress in space science applications and defined user needs potentially capable of being met by space-system applications. The study was requested by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and was conducted by the Space Applications Board. The panels…

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2011-01-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

The Appropriateness of a California Student and Staff Survey for Measuring Middle School Climate. REL 2014-039

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanson, Thomas; Voight, Adam

2014-01-01

A growing number of states and school districts use school climate assessments in progress reporting systems and are interested in incorporating these assessments into accountability systems. This analysis of response data from middle school students and teachers on the California School Climate, Health, and Learning Survey examines the…

An Update on the VAMOS Extremes Working Group Activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Cavalcanti, Iracema

2011-01-01

We review here the progress of the Variability of the American MOnsoon Systems (VAMOS) extremes working group since it was formed in February of 2010. The goals of the working group are to 1) develop an atlas of warm-season extremes over the Americas, 2) evaluate existing and planned simulations, and 3) suggest new model runs to address mechanisms and predictability of extremes. Substantial progress has been made in the development of an extremes atlas based on gridded observations and several reanalysis products including Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The status of the atlas, remaining issues and plans for its expansion to include model data will be discussed. This includes the possibility of adding a companion atlas based on station observations based on the software developed under the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Expert Team on Climate Change. Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) activity. We will also review progress on relevant research and plans for the use and validation of the atlas results.

Climate Literacy: Progress in Climate and Global Change Undergraduate Courses in Meteorology and Earth System Science Programs at Jackson State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, S. R.; Tuluri, F.; Fadavi, M.

2017-12-01

JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2013. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places strong intellectual demands upon each student, the instructors' objective is to help each student to pass the course with an adequate understanding of the fundamentals and advanced and advanced courses. AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide. The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. This is a content course in Earth Science. It introduces a new concept that views Earth as a synergistic physical system applied concepts of climatology, for him/her to understand basic atmospheric/climate processes, physical and dynamical climatology, regional climatology, past and future climates and statistical analysis using climate data and to be prepared to profit from studying more of interrelated phenomenon governed by complex processes involving the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the biosphere, and the solid Earth. The course emphasizes that the events that shape the physical, chemical, and biological processes of the Earth do not occur in isolation. Rather, there is a delicate relationship between the events that occur in the ocean, atmosphere, and the solid Earth. The course provides a multidimensional approach in solving scientific issues related to Earth-related sciences,

Climate and atmospheric modeling studies. Climate applications of Earth and planetary observations. Chemistry of Earth and environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The research conducted during the past year in the climate and atmospheric modeling programs concentrated on the development of appropriate atmospheric and upper ocean models, and preliminary applications of these models. Principal models are a one-dimensional radiative-convective model, a three-dimensional global climate model, and an upper ocean model. Principal applications have been the study of the impact of CO2, aerosols and the solar 'constant' on climate. Progress was made in the 3-D model development towards physically realistic treatment of these processes. In particular, a map of soil classifications on 1 degree x 1 degree resolution has been digitized, and soil properties have been assigned to each soil type. Using this information about soil properties, a method was developed to simulate the hydraulic behavior of soils of the world. This improved treatment of soil hydrology, together with the seasonally varying vegetation cover, will provide a more realistic study of the role of the terrestrial biota in climate change. A new version of the climate model was created which follows the isotopes of water and sources of water (or colored water) throughout the planet. Each isotope or colored water source is a fraction of the climate model's water. It participates in condensation and surface evaporation at different fractionation rates and is transported by the dynamics. A major benefit of this project has been to improve the programming techniques and physical simulation of the water vapor budget of the climate model.

Progress in Australian dendroclimatology: Identifying growth limiting factors in four climate zones.

PubMed

Haines, Heather A; Olley, Jon M; Kemp, Justine; English, Nathan B

2016-12-01

Dendroclimatology can be used to better understand past climate in regions such as Australia where instrumental and historical climate records are sparse and rarely extend beyond 100years. Here we review 36 Australian dendroclimatic studies which cover the four major climate zones of Australia; temperate, arid, subtropical and tropical. We show that all of these zones contain tree and shrub species which have the potential to provide high quality records of past climate. Despite this potential only four dendroclimatic reconstructions have been published for Australia, one from each of the climate zones: A 3592year temperature record for the SE-temperate zone, a 350year rainfall record for the Western arid zone, a 140year rainfall record for the northern tropics and a 146year rainfall record for SE-subtropics. We report on the spatial distribution of tree-ring studies, the environmental variables identified as limiting tree growth in each study, and identify the key challenges in using tree-ring records for climate reconstruction in Australia. We show that many Australian species have yet to be tested for dendroclimatological potential, and that the application of newer techniques including isotopic analysis, carbon dating, wood density measurements, and anatomical analysis, combined with traditional ring-width measurements should enable more species in each of the climate zones to be used, and long-term climate records to be developed across the entire continent. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Communicating the Connection between Climate Change and Heat Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Explore how public health and environmental professionals can effectively communicate and leverage the connections among climate change, the heat island effect, and public health to raise awareness among the public and to promote progress on these issues.

REGENERATION IN GAP MODELS: PRIORITY ISSUES FOR STUDYING FOREST RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R828785)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Criteria for selecting a CO/sub 2//climate change region of study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edmonds, J.; Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.

One of the most important research issues active today is the greenhouse issue. Progress has been made in exploring the relationship between human activities and the accumulation of CO/sub 2/ and other radiatively important gases in the atmosphere. While significant research remains in refining our understanding of the timing of possible CO/sub 2//climate change, the examination of the nature and magnitude of consequences of CO/sub 2//climate change remains in a relatively early stage of development. While the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere may be a global problem, the consequences of CO/sub 2//climate change will be experienced regionally. Itmore » is therefore critical that methods be developed to address the regional examination of CO/sub 2//climate change. An analytical framework is described and a ''cookie cutter'' technique is utilized to deal with multiple resource sectors in selecting a Region of Study. The result leads to the selection of the four midwestern states of Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri. The role of information systems, uncertainty analysis, and knowledge transfer is discussed. 19 refs., 2 figs.« less

Studying the Causes of Recent Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santer, Benjamin D.

2011-11-01

This chapter describes progress in the field of "detection and attribution" (D&A) research, which seeks to identify certain "fingerprints," or patterns of climate change, and to correlate them with possible human factors influencing the climate. Such studies contributed to the scientific confidence with which the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was able to assert that anthropogenic greenhouse gases had had a discernible effect on global warming since the mid-20th century. D&A methods have greatly improved to incorporate many more climate variables and to include increasingly finer variations in space and time. The chapter also describes the intercomparison of global climate models and the comprehensive data base of model simulations now available to anyone free of charge. The following is the testimony given by Benjamin Santer to the U.S. House of Representative Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, on November 17, 2010. It is adapted from a chapter that Tom Wigley and Benjamin Santer published in a book edited by the late Stephen Schneider [1] and from previous testimony given by Dr. Santer to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming.[2

Aircraft Emissions: Potential Effects on Ozone and Climate - A Review and Progress Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-03-01

which itself absorbs and reemits energy over a wide spectral range. In addition to such direct effects, various possible feedback effects can be...4.3.3 COMESA Climatic Effect Studies 4-17 4.4 Computed Mean Temperature Effects--Fleet Effects 4-24 4.4.1 Introduction 4-24 4.4.2 Mean Temperature Impact ...M B-13 B-2 The Chemical Kinetic Mechanism Used In . Model A B-19 B-3 Rate Coefficients for Model B (with Activation Energy in cal/mole) B-20 B-4

Tertiary climatic change in the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Addicott, W.O.

1969-01-01

Analysis of distributional patterns of shallow-water molluscan faunas of the middle latitudes of the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean discloses a sharp reversal during the Miocene of the progressive climatic deterioration. A low point in the Tertiary cooling trend during the Oligocene was followed by climatic warming that culminated during the middle Miocene, as illustrated by a series of zoogeographic profiles.

Tertiary climatic change in the marginal northeastern pacific ocean.

PubMed

Addicott, W O

1969-08-08

Analysis of distributional patterns of shallow-water molluscan faunas of the middle latitudes of the marginal northeastern Pacific Ocean discloses a sharp reversal during the Miocene of the progressive climatic deterioration. A low point in the Tertiary cooling trend during the Oligocene was followed by climatic warming that culminated during the middle Miocene, as illustrated by a series of zoogeographic profiles.

Mid­west. Climate change impacts in the United States: The third national climate assessment

Treesearch

Sara C. Pryor; Donald Scavia; Charles Downer; Marc Gaden; Louis Iverson; Rolf Nordstrom; Jonathan Patz; G. Phillip Robertson

2014-01-01

In the next few decades, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will increase yields of some crops, though those benefits will be progressively offset by extreme weather events. Though adaptation options can reduce some of the detrimental effects, in the long term, the combined stresses associated with climate change are expected to decrease...

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; ...

2015-06-01

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Pacific Northwest Laboratory annual report for 1990 to the DOE Office of Energy Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Owczarski, E.L.

At the start of FY 1990, the atmospheric sciences and carbon dioxide research programs within the Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) were gathered into the new Atmospheric and Climate Research Division (ACRD). One of the central missions of this new division is to provide the Department of Energy with scientifically defensible information on the local, regional, and global distributions of energy-related pollutants and their effects on climate. This information is vital to the definition and implementation of a sound national energy strategy. Because much of the work done at PNL during FY 1990 falls under the umbrella ofmore » the new ACRD, we are including in this volume the progress and status reports for all OHER atmospheric and climate research projects at PNL. The description of ongoing atmospheric and climate research at PNL is organized along two broad research areas; atmospheric research and climate research. This report describes the progress in FY 1990 in each of these areas. A divider page summarizes the goals of each area and lists projects that support research activities.« less

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

2011-12-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Global temperature patterns 6000 years ago. Progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, T. III

The overall goal is to illustrate the climatic patterns of 5000 to 7000 years ago over as wide an area of the northern hemisphere as possible. Mapping of the patterns in selected climatic variables at 5000 to 7000 years ago that can be reconstructed from pollen and marine-plankton data is planned. Multivariate statistical methods permit using the modern distribution of these data in order to transform their fossil remains into climate estimates of past times. Given these goals and methods, research during the first eight months focused on assembling the available modern and fossil data from each of the mainmore » areas under study. Two workshop conferences were held to help organize the joint work.« less

Within-Crop Air Temperature and Humidity Outcomes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of the Key Rose Pest Frankliniella occidentalis.

PubMed

Fatnassi, Hicham; Pizzol, Jeannine; Senoussi, Rachid; Biondi, Antonio; Desneux, Nicolas; Poncet, Christine; Boulard, Thierry

2015-01-01

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is a key pest of various crops worldwide. In this study, we analyse the dependence of the infestation of this pest on spatially distributed micro climatic factors in a rose greenhouse. Despite the importance of this subject, the few existing studies have been realized in laboratory rather than in greenhouse conditions. However, recent progress on greenhouse microclimate characterisation has highlighted the strong indoor climate heterogeneity that may influence the within-crop pest distribution. In this study, both microclimate (air temperature and humidity) and thrips distribution were simultaneously mapped in a rose greenhouse. The measurements were sensed in a horizontal plane situated at mid-height of the rose crop inside the greenhouse. Simultaneously, thrips population dynamics were assessed after an artificial and homogeneous infestation of the rose crop. The spatio-temporal distribution of climate and thrips within the greenhouse were compared, and links between thrips infestation and climatic conditions were investigated. A statistical model was used to define the favourable climate conditions for thrips adults and larvae. Our results showed that (i) the air temperature and air humidity were very heterogeneously distributed within the crop, (ii) pest populations aggregated in the most favourable climatic areas and (iii) the highest population density of thrips adults and larvae were recorded at 27°C and 22°C for temperature and 63% and 86% for humidity, respectively. These findings confirm, in real rose cropping conditions, previous laboratory studies on the F. occidentalis climatic optimum and provide a solid scientific support for climatic-based control methods against this pest.

Within-Crop Air Temperature and Humidity Outcomes on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of the Key Rose Pest Frankliniella occidentalis

PubMed Central

Fatnassi, Hicham; Pizzol, Jeannine; Senoussi, Rachid; Biondi, Antonio; Desneux, Nicolas; Poncet, Christine; Boulard, Thierry

2015-01-01

Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is a key pest of various crops worldwide. In this study, we analyse the dependence of the infestation of this pest on spatially distributed micro climatic factors in a rose greenhouse. Despite the importance of this subject, the few existing studies have been realized in laboratory rather than in greenhouse conditions. However, recent progress on greenhouse microclimate characterisation has highlighted the strong indoor climate heterogeneity that may influence the within-crop pest distribution. In this study, both microclimate (air temperature and humidity) and thrips distribution were simultaneously mapped in a rose greenhouse. The measurements were sensed in a horizontal plane situated at mid-height of the rose crop inside the greenhouse. Simultaneously, thrips population dynamics were assessed after an artificial and homogeneous infestation of the rose crop. The spatio-temporal distribution of climate and thrips within the greenhouse were compared, and links between thrips infestation and climatic conditions were investigated. A statistical model was used to define the favourable climate conditions for thrips adults and larvae. Our results showed that (i) the air temperature and air humidity were very heterogeneously distributed within the crop, (ii) pest populations aggregated in the most favourable climatic areas and (iii) the highest population density of thrips adults and larvae were recorded at 27°C and 22°C for temperature and 63% and 86% for humidity, respectively. These findings confirm, in real rose cropping conditions, previous laboratory studies on the F. occidentalis climatic optimum and provide a solid scientific support for climatic-based control methods against this pest. PMID:26011275

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayers, Jessica M.; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

The value of linking mitigation and adaptation: a case study of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Ayers, Jessica M; Huq, Saleemul

2009-05-01

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschultz, Fred

2011-01-01

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

Climate Literacy: Progress in AMS Climate Studies Undergraduate Course in Meteorology Program at Jackson State University

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, S. R.

2013-12-01

AMS Climate Studies is an introductory college-level course developed by the American Meteorological Society for implementation at undergraduate institutions nationwide and increasing involvement of under-represented groups The course places students in a dynamic and highly motivational educational environment where they investigate Earth's climate system using real-world environmental data. The AMS Climate Studies course package consists of a textbook, investigations manual, course website, and course management system-compatible files. Instructors can use these resources in combinations that make for an exciting learning experience for their students. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project Workshop participation is on a first-come, first-serve basis as determined by the date-of-receipt of the License Order Form. To grow AMS Diversity Programs to their fullest extent, institutions are encouraged to nominate course instructors who did not previously attend Diversity Project workshops. Until three months before the workshop, two-thirds of the workshop positions would be reserved for institutions new to AMS Diversity Projects. The AMS five day course implementation workshop was held in Washington, DC, during May 24-29, 2012. It covered essential course topics in climate science and global climate change, and strategies for course implementation. Talks would feature climate science and sustainability experts from Federal agencies and area research institutions, such as NASA, NOAA, University of Maryland, Howard University, George Mason University, and other Washington, DC, area institutions. The workshop would also include visits to NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. JSU Meteorology Program will be offering AMS Climate Studies undergraduate course under MET 210: Climatology in spring 2014. AMS Climate Studies is offered as a 3 credit hour laboratory course with 2 lectures and 1 lab sessions per week. Although this course places strong intellectual demands upon each student, the instructors' objective is to help each student to pass the course with an adequate understanding of the fundamentals and advanced and applied concepts of climatology, and climate change for him/her to understand basic atmospheric/climate processes, physical and dynamical climatology, regional and global climatology, past and future climates and statistical analysis using climate data and to be prepared to profit from studying more advanced courses.

REU Site: CUNY/GISS CGCR - Increasing Diversity in Earth and Space Science and Space Technology Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, L. P.; Marchese, P.; Carlson, B. E.; Howard, A. M.; Damas, M. C.; Boxe, C.; Sohl, L. E.; Cheung, T. D.; Zavala-Gutierrez, R.; Jiang, M.

2016-12-01

This presentation describes student projects and accomplishments of the NSF REU Site: The City University of New York / NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Center for Global Climate Research. These student experiences contribute to the preparation of a diverse workforce in the areas of ocean modeling, planetary atmospheres, atmospheric science, climate change, heliophysics and space technology. It is important to motivate students to continue their studies towards advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these fields of study. This is best accomplished by involving undergraduates in research. For the past three years, this REU Site has supported research for more than 35 students, approximately 60 percent from underrepresented minorities and 35 percent female. All the students have progressed towards their degrees and some have advanced to graduate study. This program is supported by NSF award AGS-1359293 REU Site: CUNY/GISS Center for Global Climate Research and the NASA New York State Space Grant Consortium and in collaboration with the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS).

ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND ITS INTERACTIONS WITH CLIMATE CHANGE: PROGRESS REPORT 2004

EPA Science Inventory

The measures needed for the protection of the Earth's ozone layer are decided regularly by the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. This progress report is the 2004 update by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel.

Advanced spectral methods for climatic time series

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ghil, M.; Allen, M.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ide, K.; Kondrashov, D.; Mann, M.E.; Robertson, A.W.; Saunders, A.; Tian, Y.; Varadi, F.; Yiou, P.

2002-01-01

The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal- to-noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

Robust Spring Drying in the Southwestern U.S. and Seasonal Migration of Wet/Dry Patterns in a Warmer Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Lu, Jian

2014-03-16

This study compares climate simulations over the United States produced by a regional climate model with the driving global climate simulations as well as a large multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations to investigate robust changes in water availability (precipitation (P) – evapotranspiration (E)). A robust spring dry signal across multiple models is identified in the Southwest that results from a decrease in P and an increase in E in the future. In the boreal winter and summer, the prominent changes in P – E are associated with a north – south dipole pattern, while in spring, the prominent changesmore » in P – E appear as an east – west dipole pattern. The progression of the north – south and east – west dipole patterns through the seasons manifests clearly as a seasonal “clockwise” migration of wet/dry patterns, which is shown to be a robust feature of water availability changes in the US consistent across regional and global climate simulations.« less

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

PubMed Central

Meehl, Gerald A.

2017-01-01

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483866

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

PubMed

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects

PubMed Central

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J.; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W.; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M.; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T.; Ogbonnaya, Francis C.; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H.; Simon, Philipp W.; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security. PMID:26322050

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: progress and prospects.

PubMed

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamilarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; Edwards, David; Sharma, Rishu; Abberton, Michael; Batley, Jacqueline; Bentley, Alison; Blakeney, Michael; Bryant, John; Cai, Hongwei; Cakir, Mehmet; Cseke, Leland J; Cockram, James; de Oliveira, Antonio Costa; De Pace, Ciro; Dempewolf, Hannes; Ellison, Shelby; Gepts, Paul; Greenland, Andy; Hall, Anthony; Hori, Kiyosumi; Hughes, Stephen; Humphreys, Mike W; Iorizzo, Massimo; Ismail, Abdelbagi M; Marshall, Athole; Mayes, Sean; Nguyen, Henry T; Ogbonnaya, Francis C; Ortiz, Rodomiro; Paterson, Andrew H; Simon, Philipp W; Tohme, Joe; Tuberosa, Roberto; Valliyodan, Babu; Varshney, Rajeev K; Wullschleger, Stan D; Yano, Masahiro; Prasad, Manoj

2015-01-01

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful in enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.

EVALUATING SHORT-TERM CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE LATE HOLOCENE OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joseph H. Hartman

1999-09-01

This literature study investigated methods and areas to deduce climate change and climate patterns, looking for short-term cycle phenomena and the means to interpret them. Many groups are actively engaged in intensive climate-related research. Ongoing research might be (overly) simplified into three categories: (1) historic data on weather that can be used for trend analysis and modeling; (2) detailed geological, biological (subfossil), and analytical (geochemical, radiocarbon, etc.) studies covering the last 10,000 years (about since last glaciation); and (3) geological, paleontological, and analytical (geochemical, radiometric, etc.) studies over millions of years. Of importance is our ultimate ability to join thesemore » various lines of inquiry into an effective means of interpretation. At this point, the process of integration is fraught with methodological troubles and misconceptions about what each group can contribute. This project has met its goals to the extent that it provided an opportunity to study resource materials and consider options for future effort toward the goal of understanding the natural climate variation that has shaped our current civilization. A further outcome of this project is a proposed methodology based on ''climate sections'' that provides spatial and temporal correlation within a region. The method would integrate cultural and climate data to establish the climate history of a region with increasing accuracy with progressive study and scientific advancement (e. g., better integration of regional and global models). The goal of this project is to better understand natural climatic variations in the recent past (last 5000 years). The information generated by this work is intended to provide better context within which to examine global climate change. The ongoing project will help to establish a basis upon which to interpret late Holocene short-term climate variability as evidenced in various studies in the northern Great Plains, northern hemisphere, and elsewhere. Finally these data can be integrated into a history of climate change and predictive climate models. This is not a small undertaking. The goals of researchers and the methods used vary considerably. The primary task of this project was literature research to (1) evaluate existing methodologies used in geologic climate change studies and evidence for short-term cycles produced by these methodologies and (2) evaluate late Holocene climate patterns and their interpretations.« less

Future Scenarios for Plant Virus Pathogens as Climate Change Progresses.

PubMed

Jones, R A C

2016-01-01

Knowledge of how climate change is likely to influence future virus disease epidemics in cultivated plants and natural vegetation is of great importance to both global food security and natural ecosystems. However, obtaining such knowledge is hampered by the complex effects of climate alterations on the behavior of diverse types of vectors and the ease by which previously unknown viruses can emerge. A review written in 2011 provided a comprehensive analysis of available data on the effects of climate change on virus disease epidemics worldwide. This review summarizes its findings and those of two earlier climate change reviews and focuses on describing research published on the subject since 2011. It describes the likely effects of the full range of direct and indirect climate change parameters on hosts, viruses and vectors, virus control prospects, and the many information gaps and deficiencies. Recently, there has been encouraging progress in understanding the likely effects of some climate change parameters, especially over the effects of elevated CO2, temperature, and rainfall-related parameters, upon a small number of important plant viruses and several key insect vectors, especially aphids. However, much more research needs to be done to prepare for an era of (i) increasingly severe virus epidemics and (ii) increasing difficulties in controlling them, so as to mitigate their detrimental effects on future global food security and plant biodiversity. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections.

PubMed

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-08-27

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow "Earth system" feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or "Charney" climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.

Beneficial effects of restoration practices can be thwarted by climate extremes.

PubMed

Maccherini, Simona; Bacaro, Giovanni; Marignani, Michela

2018-06-01

The impacts of climate extremes on species, communities and ecosystems have become critical concerns to science and society. Under a changing climate, how restoration outcomes are affected by extreme climate variables is a largely unknown topic. We analyzed the effects of experimental factors (grazing and sowing of native species), extreme climate events (intense precipitation and extreme temperatures indexes) and their combination on the restoration progress of a dry, calcareous grassland in Tuscany (Italy) with a 1 year before/15 years continuous annual monitoring after, control/impact (BACI) experiment. Grazing had a beneficial effect on the diversity of the grassland, while sowing had a limited impact. The climatic index that most affected the entire plant community composition was the number of very heavy precipitation days. The interaction of grazing and extreme climatic indexes had a significant detrimental effect on restoration outcomes, increasing the cover of synanthropic and Cosmopolitan-Subcosmopolitan generalist species and decreasing the cover of more valuable species such endemic species. In the richest grazed plots, species richness showed a lower sensitivity to the average precipitation per wet day but in grazed site, restoration outcomes can be negatively influenced by the intensification of precipitation and temperature extremes. In a context of progressive tropicalization of the Mediterranean area, to assist managers setting achievable restoration goals, restoration practitioners should consider that climate extremes might interfere with the beneficial effects of restoration practices. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods and Strategies: Making the Climate Connection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Bruce

2010-01-01

This article presents classroom resources for teaching both weather and climate along with background resources for teachers who want to beef up their own knowledge in the subjects. In addition, the author proposes learning progressions that teachers can use to guide their instruction. (Contains 13 online resources.)

KIPP DIAMOND Academy Year Three (2004-2005) Evaluation Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Susan; McDonald, Aaron; Sterbinsky, Allan

2005-01-01

The purpose of the present evaluation study was to examine the progress made in program implementation, school climate, and student achievement by the KIPP (Knowledge Is Power Program) DIAMOND (Daring Individual Achievers Making Outstanding New Dreams) Academy (KIPP:DA) housed in Cypress Junior High School in Memphis, Tennessee. The school began…

Assessment of Climatic and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Global Carbon Cycle Constrained by Atmospheric Measurements and Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Charles D.; Piper, Stephen C.

2001-01-01

This grant aimed to establish how the global carbon cycle has responded and will respond to global change. We proposed to use models to predict measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentration and C-13/C-12 isotopic ratio, and thereby to establish how sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 have been influenced by climatic change and human activities. As the work progressed we developed strategies involving finding regional sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 by an inverse approach, and studying their seasonal and interannual variability.

Vegetation and climate changes in western Amazonia during a previous Interglacial- Glacial transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardenas, M. L.; Gosling, W. D.; Sherlock, S. C.; Poole, I.; Pennington, R. T.

2009-12-01

Amazonia is one of the most biodiverse areas of the world and its vegetation plays a crucial role in controlling the global climate through the regulation of the levels of atmospheric CO2. However, Amazonian ecosystems and their role in the climate system are threatened by ongoing the human impact (already estimated loss of 60% of the species in western Amazonia) and predicted climate change (+1.1-6.4oC by 2100). Unfortunately, there is absence of data relating to the ecological baseline function and response to global climate change of western Amazonian ecosystems in the absence of humans. To help anticipate the impact of future climate change predictions an improved understanding of the natural responses of tropical vegetation to known past climate change is required. Here we present the first study that shows the response of pristine tropical ecosystems in western Amazonia biodiversity hotspot to a major global climate change event (a Quaternary Interglacial-Glacial transition). Pleistocene lake/swamp sediments preserved at the Erazo study site (Lat. 00o 33’S, Long. 077o 52’W, 1927m alt.) today within tropical cloud forest vegetation provide a unique opportunity to examine the impact of past climate shifts. The sediment are >40,000 years old (radiocarbon infinite) and younger than 1 million years (presence of Alder biomarker) and consist of organic layers interbedded with volcanic ash (tephra). This study presents data from multiple proxies (fossil pollen, wood macrofossils and charcoal) to establish a comprehensive picture of regional and local vegetation change prior to human arrival. Our data show a change of vegetation from palm-dominated forest indicative of warm and wet conditions similar to the present at the base of this record, to a forest dominated by Podocarpus sp. suggesting cold and wet conditions at the top of the record. The transition between these two vegetation communities appears to be progressive with small sharp changes along the ecological succession. Fire activity appears to be minor through the record associated only with volcanic events (tephra layers). We conclude that western Amazonian vegetation was effected by Pleistocene global climate change. The Erazo record shows the progression of the vegetation from warm/wet Interglacial-like period similar to the present, to a colder and wetter Glacial-like period. This magnitude of change agrees with similar magnitude changes inferred for the last glacial-interglacial transition at 14,700-9,000 calendar years BP. We also establish for the first time that no natural fire occurred in western Amazonia in the absence of humans, under interglacial or glacial conditions, without volcanic eruptions acting as a source of ignition.

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

Late Pliocene vegetation and orbital-scale climate changes from the western Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Burjachs, Francesc; Expósito, Isabel; Oms, Oriol; Carrancho, Ángel; Villalaín, Juan José; Agustí, Jordi; Campeny, Gerard; Gómez de Soler, Bruno; van der Made, Jan

2013-09-01

The Late Pliocene is a very interesting period as climate deteriorated from a warm optimum at ca. 3.3-3.0 Ma to a progressive climate cooling. Simultaneously, the Mediterranean area witnessed the establishment of the Mediterranean-type seasonal precipitation rhythm (summer drought). These important climate changes produced significant vegetation changes, such as the extinction of several thermophilous and hygrophilous plant taxa from the European latitudes. Besides these long-term trends, climate was also characterized by cyclical variability (i.e., orbital changes) that forced vegetation changes (forested vs. open vegetation). In the Mediterranean area, cyclical changes in the vegetation were mostly forced by precession. In this study we analyzed pollen from a Late Pliocene maar lake core from NE Spain. An increase in aridity is observed as well as cyclic variations throughout the studied sequence. Cyclicity was mostly forced by precession but also by obliquity and eccentricity. Precipitation seems to be the main factor controlling these cycles. These data allowed estimating a sedimentary rate of ca. 0.19 mm/yr and the time duration covered by the studied core, close to 200 ka. The combination of biostratigraphy, palaeomagnetism and cyclostratigraphy allowed for a very precise dating of the sediments between ca. 3.3 and 3.1 Ma. Climate and paleobiogeographical implications are discussed within the context of the Late Pliocene Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification.

Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health.

PubMed

Erickson, Larry E; Jennings, Merrisa

2017-01-01

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure.

Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

PubMed

Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

2016-08-01

Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Challenges to Progress in Studies of Climate-Tectonic-Erosion Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbank, D. W.

2016-12-01

Attempts to unravel the relative importance of climate and tectonics in modulating topography and erosion should compare relevant data sets at comparable temporal and spatial scales. Given that such data are uncommonly available, how can we compare diverse data sets in a robust fashion? Many erosion-rate studies rely on detrital cosmogenic nuclides. What time scales can such data address, and what landscape conditions do they require to provide accurate representations of long-term erosion rates? To what extent do large-scale, but infrequent erosional events impact long-term rates? Commonly, long-term erosion rates are deduced from thermochronologic data. What types of data are needed to test for consistency of rates across a given interval or change in rates through time? Similarly, spatial and temporal variability in precipitation or tectonics requires averaging across appropriate scales. How are such data obtained in deforming mountain belts, and how do we assess their reliability? This study describes the character and temporal duration of key variables that are needed to examine climate-tectonic-erosion interactions, explores the strengths and weaknesses of several study areas, and suggests the types of data requirements that will underpin enlightening "tests" of hypotheses related to the mutual impacts of climate, tectonics, and erosion.

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2015

EPA Science Inventory

The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) is one of three Panels that regularly informs the Parties (countries) to the Montreal Protocol on the effects of ozone depletion and the consequences of climate change interactions with respect to human health, animals, plants, bi...

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: Progress report, 2016

EPA Science Inventory

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable...

CONSEQUENCES OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND CHANGING CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MAIZE YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Aging of Black Carbon during Atmospheric Transport: Understanding Results from the DOE's 2010 CARES and 2012 ClearfLo Campaigns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Subramanian, R.; Mazzoleni, Claudio

2016-08-31

Over the course of this project, we have analyzed data and samples from the CARES and ClearfLo campaigns, as well as conducted or participated in laboratory experiments designed to better understand black carbon mixing state and climate-relevant properties. The laboratory campaigns took place at PNNL and CMU to study various climate-relevant aerosol properties of different sources of soot mixing with secondary organic aerosol precursors. The DMT photoacoustic extinctiometers (PAXs) procured by CMU through this grant were deployed for these experiments, as well as experiments characterizing the optical properties of cookstove soot emissions at Colorado State University (CSU). Results from somemore » of these activities were summarized in the previous progress report. This final report presents the manuscripts that have been published (many in the period since the last progress report), lists presentations at different conferences based on grant-related activities, and presents some results that are likely to be submitted for publication in 2016.« less

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosol

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the third year of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this one-year grant consisted in analysis and publication of field studies using a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180 deg backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Analyzed data consisted of measurements made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with target in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator.

A study of model parameters associated with the urban climate using HCMM data. [analysis of St. Louis, Missouri infrared imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Progress in the study of the intensity of the urban heat island is reported. The intensity of the heat island is commonly defined as the temperature difference between the center of the city and the surrounding suburban and rural regions. The intensity is considered as a function of changes in the season and changes in meteorological conditions in order to derive various parameters which may be used in numerical models for urban climate. Twelve case studies were selected and CCT's were ordered. In situ data was obtained from sixteen stations scattered about the city of St. Louis. Upper-air meteorological data were obtained and the water vapor and the temperature data were processed. Atmospheric transmissivities were computed for each of the case studies.

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be exacerbated when coupled, component systems with different physical characteristics and different spatial and temporal scales, and component observations in different media with different spatial and temporal frequencies and different latencies. Quantification of uncertainty in reanalyses is also a critical challenge and is important for expanding their utility as a tool for climate change assessment. This talk provides a brief overview of the progress of reanalysis development during recent decades, and describes remaining challenges in the progression toward coupled Earth system reanalyses.

Climate Science: A Journalist's View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roosevelt, M.

2011-12-01

U.S. public opinion polls show that concern over global warming has dropped precipitously in the wake of economic turmoil. With a dearth of climate change coverage on network news, and in large newspapers and magazines, the public largely gets its climate news--and science news generally--from local TV weathermen. At the same time, many local weathercasters have little time to educate themselves about climate change--although the National Science Foundation is funding an effort to inform them. The Heartland Institute and other climate-skeptic organizations are reaching out to TV weathermen, and some prominent weathercasters have embraced the skeptics' arguments, but websites such as Climate Central, and blogs such as DotEarth are seeking to fill the void. The innate caution of climate scientists, most of whom are reluctant to extrapolate from a narrow study on, say, carbon flux or sea ice, to talk about why the planet is in danger is another challenge. For the most part, they don't want to stick their necks out for fear of professional retribution. When scientists limit themselves to talking about narrow results, journalists' eyes glaze over and no one connects the dots. Much attention is devoted to whether or not the media is doing a good job in covering climate change, when energy might better be spent on applying pressure to decision makers? The media can't make legislators vote for progressive climate change policies--only constituents can do that.

Launching a Successful Academic High School Experience and Future: Ninth Grade Climate Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehead, Jackie F.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this dissertation is to present a number of academic perspectives for analysis and understanding in the attempt to progress educational situations. Specifically, the study takes a look at student and learning community transition into the high school environment and, ultimately, by doing so help meet graduation goals. Its intent is…

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

PubMed Central

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-01-01

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature. PMID:23918397

A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragone, Francesco; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank

2016-03-01

The sensitivity of climate models to increasing CO2 concentration and the climate response at decadal time-scales are still major factors of uncertainty for the assessment of the long and short term effects of anthropogenic climate change. While the relative slow progress on these issues is partly due to the inherent inaccuracies of numerical climate models, this also hints at the need for stronger theoretical foundations to the problem of studying climate sensitivity and performing climate change predictions with numerical models. Here we demonstrate that it is possible to use Ruelle's response theory to predict the impact of an arbitrary CO2 forcing scenario on the global surface temperature of a general circulation model. Response theory puts the concept of climate sensitivity on firm theoretical grounds, and addresses rigorously the problem of predictability at different time-scales. Conceptually, these results show that performing climate change experiments with general circulation models is a well defined problem from a physical and mathematical point of view. Practically, these results show that considering one single CO2 forcing scenario is enough to construct operators able to predict the response of climatic observables to any other CO2 forcing scenario, without the need to perform additional numerical simulations. We also introduce a general relationship between climate sensitivity and climate response at different time scales, thus providing an explicit definition of the inertia of the system at different time scales. This technique allows also for studying systematically, for a large variety of forcing scenarios, the time horizon at which the climate change signal (in an ensemble sense) becomes statistically significant. While what we report here refers to the linear response, the general theory allows for treating nonlinear effects as well. These results pave the way for redesigning and interpreting climate change experiments from a radically new perspective.

Energy, Transportation, Air Quality, Climate Change, Health Nexus: Sustainable Energy is Good for Our Health

PubMed Central

Erickson, Larry E.; Jennings, Merrisa

2017-01-01

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has the potential to improve air quality and human health by encouraging the electrification of transportation and a transition from coal to sustainable energy. There will be human health benefits from reducing combustion emissions in all parts of the world. Solar powered charging infrastructure for electric vehicles adds renewable energy to generate electricity, shaded parking, and a needed charging infrastructure for electric vehicles that will reduce range anxiety. The costs of wind power, solar panels, and batteries are falling because of technological progress, magnitude of commercial activity, production experience, and competition associated with new trillion dollar markets. These energy and transportation transitions can have a very positive impact on health. The energy, transportation, air quality, climate change, health nexus may benefit from additional progress in developing solar powered charging infrastructure. PMID:29922702

Time variation of effective climate sensitivity in GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Ingram, W. J.; Gregory, J. M.

2009-04-01

Effective climate sensitivity is often assumed to be constant (if uncertain), but some previous studies of General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have found it varying as the simulation progresses. This complicates the fitting of simple models to such simulations, as well as having implications for the estimation of climate sensitivity from observations. This study examines the evolution of the feedbacks determining the climate sensitivity in GCMs submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Apparent centennial-timescale variations of effective climate sensitivity during stabilisation to a forcing can be considered an artefact of using conventional forcings which only allow for instantaneous effects and stratospheric adjustment. If the forcing is adjusted for processes occurring on timescales which are short compared to the climate stabilisation timescale then there is little centennial timescale evolution of effective climate sensitivity in any of the GCMs. We suggest that much of the apparent variation in effective climate sensitivity identified in previous studies is actually due to the comparatively fast forcing adjustment. Persistent differences are found in the strength of the feedbacks between the coupled atmosphere - ocean (AO) versions and their atmosphere - mixed-layer ocean (AML) counterparts, (the latter are often assumed to give the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the AOGCM). The AML model can typically only estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the parallel AO version to within about 0.5K. The adjustment to the forcing to account for comparatively fast processes varies in magnitude and sign between GCMs, as well as differing between AO and AML versions of the same model. There is evidence from one AOGCM that the forcing adjustment may take a couple of decades, with implications for observationally based estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity. We suggest that at least some of the spread in 21st century global temperature predictions between GCMs is due to differing adjustment processes, hence work to understand these differences should be a priority.

Caring for our natural assets: an ecosystem services perspective.

Treesearch

2007-01-01

Global attention to climate change has advanced an awareness of human impacts on the environment. Progressing more slowly is recognition of the critical link between forest ecosystems and human welfare. Forests provide a number of societal benefits or ecosystem services, such as water purification, climate and flood regulation, recreational opportunities, and spiritual...

Toward Construct Validation of a Transfer Climate Instrument. [and] Improving Positive Transfer: A Test of Relapse Prevention Training on Transfer Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holton, Elwood F., III; And Others

1997-01-01

Includes "Toward Construct Validation of a Transfer Climate Instrument" (Holton et al.); "Improving Positive Transfer: A Test of Relapse Prevention Training on Transfer Outcomes" (Burke); "Invited Reaction: Progress or Relapse?" (Newstrom); "Invited Reaction: Theory, Research, and Practice" (Tang);…

SENSITIVITY OF WINTER WHEAT YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES TO FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND CO2 FERTILIZATION. (R824996)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: Progress and prospects

DOE PAGES

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamiliarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert; ...

2015-08-11

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful inmore » enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.« less

Application of genomics-assisted breeding for generation of climate resilient crops: Progress and prospects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kole, Chittaranjan; Muthamiliarasan, Mehanathan; Henry, Robert

Climate change affects agricultural productivity worldwide. Increased prices of food commodities are the initial indication of drastic edible yield loss, which is expected to increase further due to global warming. This situation has compelled plant scientists to develop climate change-resilient crops, which can withstand broad-spectrum stresses such as drought, heat, cold, salinity, flood, submergence and pests, thus helping to deliver increased productivity. Genomics appears to be a promising tool for deciphering the stress responsiveness of crop species with adaptation traits or in wild relatives toward identifying underlying genes, alleles or quantitative trait loci. Molecular breeding approaches have proven helpful inmore » enhancing the stress adaptation of crop plants, and recent advances in high-throughput sequencing and phenotyping platforms have transformed molecular breeding to genomics-assisted breeding (GAB). In view of this, the present review elaborates the progress and prospects of GAB for improving climate change resilience in crops, which is likely to play an ever increasing role in the effort to ensure global food security.« less

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate Change, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc Lee; Kamiell, Arnon Menahem

2010-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological diversity to changes in regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as "the great transformation". Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of land transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter the land surface so profoundly that both local climate and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools for planning and developing urban places that are both enjoyable and sustainable. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, and surface water recharge at the local level and climate and food security globally.

Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion

PubMed Central

Brouwers, Niels C; Mercer, Jack; Lyons, Tom; Poot, Pieter; Veneklaas, Erik; Hardy, Giles

2013-01-01

Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non-biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions. PMID:23403899

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning. PMID:28698518

Challenges and Opportunities for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation into WaSH Development Planning in Ghana.

PubMed

Alhassan, Salley; Hadwen, Wade L

2017-07-10

Climate change threatens water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) facilities and services, as these are intimately linked to the water cycle and are vulnerable to changes in the quantity and quality of available water resources. Floods and droughts, which pollute and reduce water delivery respectively, have now become a perennial issue to deal with in the northern regions of Ghana. This study aimed to assess the degree to which climate change adaptation measures are mainstreamed into the water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) development planning process in Ghana. Stakeholders from government and non-government agencies were interviewed to gain perspectives on the threat of climate change, the inclusion of climate change in WaSH planning and the barriers preventing mainstreaming. Despite awareness of climate change, adaptation measures have not been considered, and the immediate WaSH needs remain the priority. Overall, stakeholders felt the adaptive capacity of the Municipality was low and that mainstreaming has not yet occurred. Despite the lack of progress, there are great opportunities for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into planning through increasing awareness and capacity, legislative and institutional changes and the development of participatory systems to provide early warning systems and disaster risk analyses that will inform future planning.

Intercomparison of model response and internal variability across climate model ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Devashish; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2017-10-01

Characterization of climate uncertainty at regional scales over near-term planning horizons (0-30 years) is crucial for climate adaptation. Climate internal variability (CIV) dominates climate uncertainty over decadal prediction horizons at stakeholders' scales (regional to local). In the literature, CIV has been characterized indirectly using projections of climate change from multi-model ensembles (MME) instead of directly using projections from multiple initial condition ensembles (MICE), primarily because adequate number of initial condition (IC) runs were not available for any climate model. Nevertheless, the recent availability of significant number of IC runs from one climate model allows for the first time to characterize CIV directly from climate model projections and perform a sensitivity analysis to study the dominance of CIV compared to model response variability (MRV). Here, we measure relative agreement (a dimensionless number with values ranging between 0 and 1, inclusive; a high value indicates less variability and vice versa) among MME and MICE and find that CIV is lower than MRV for all projection time horizons and spatial resolutions for precipitation and temperature. However, CIV exhibits greater dominance over MRV for seasonal and annual mean precipitation at higher latitudes where signals of climate change are expected to emerge sooner. Furthermore, precipitation exhibits large uncertainties and a rapid decline in relative agreement from global to continental, regional, or local scales for MICE compared to MME. The fractional contribution of uncertainty due to CIV is invariant for precipitation and decreases for temperature as lead time progresses towards the end of the century.

Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Narasimha D.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Riahi, Keywan; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-12-01

As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments.

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

Inadequate Progress for Women in Academic Medicine: Findings from the National Faculty Study

PubMed Central

Gunn, Christine M.; Kaplan, Samantha A.; Raj, Anita; Freund, Karen M.

2015-01-01

Abstract Background: Women have entered academic medicine in significant numbers for 4 decades and now comprise 20% of full-time faculty. Despite this, women have not reached senior positions in parity with men. We sought to explore the gender climate in academic medicine as perceived by representatives to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) Group on Women in Medicine and Science (GWIMS) and Group on Diversity and Inclusion (GDI). Methods: We conducted a qualitative analysis of semistructured telephone interviews with GWIMS and GDI representatives and other senior leaders at 24 randomly selected medical schools of the 1995 National Faculty Study. All were in the continental United States, balanced for public/private status and AAMC geographic region. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and organized into content areas before an inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Themes that were expressed by multiple informants were studied for patterns of association. Results: Five themes were identified: (1) a perceived wide spectrum in gender climate; (2) lack of parity in rank and leadership by gender; (3) lack of retention of women in academic medicine (the “leaky pipeline”); (4) lack of gender equity in compensation; and (5) a disproportionate burden of family responsibilities and work-life balance on women's career progression. Conclusions: Key informants described improvements in the climate of academic medicine for women as modest. Medical schools were noted to vary by department in the gender experience of women, often with no institutional oversight. Our findings speak to the need for systematic review by medical schools and by accrediting organizations to achieve gender equity in academic medicine. PMID:25658907

Inadequate progress for women in academic medicine: findings from the National Faculty Study.

PubMed

Carr, Phyllis L; Gunn, Christine M; Kaplan, Samantha A; Raj, Anita; Freund, Karen M

2015-03-01

Women have entered academic medicine in significant numbers for 4 decades and now comprise 20% of full-time faculty. Despite this, women have not reached senior positions in parity with men. We sought to explore the gender climate in academic medicine as perceived by representatives to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) Group on Women in Medicine and Science (GWIMS) and Group on Diversity and Inclusion (GDI). We conducted a qualitative analysis of semistructured telephone interviews with GWIMS and GDI representatives and other senior leaders at 24 randomly selected medical schools of the 1995 National Faculty Study. All were in the continental United States, balanced for public/private status and AAMC geographic region. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed, and organized into content areas before an inductive thematic analysis was conducted. Themes that were expressed by multiple informants were studied for patterns of association. Five themes were identified: (1) a perceived wide spectrum in gender climate; (2) lack of parity in rank and leadership by gender; (3) lack of retention of women in academic medicine (the "leaky pipeline"); (4) lack of gender equity in compensation; and (5) a disproportionate burden of family responsibilities and work-life balance on women's career progression. Key informants described improvements in the climate of academic medicine for women as modest. Medical schools were noted to vary by department in the gender experience of women, often with no institutional oversight. Our findings speak to the need for systematic review by medical schools and by accrediting organizations to achieve gender equity in academic medicine.

Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N.

2015-12-01

Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors.

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Does Polar Research Matter? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, R.

2009-12-01

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges facing humanity. The polar regions are being disproportionately impacted, particularly in the Arctic where warming is greatly amplified. Moreover, there are strong feedbacks from the polar regions to the global climate system and sea level, so changes at the poles have global ramifications. Not surprisingly, polar research is often justified because of its relevance to global climate change. In spite of this, where are the “solutions” in the polar regions? For example, a scientist interested in climate change who studies tropical forests can work toward preserving the forests since deforestation is one of the main contributors to anthropogenic climate change. Are there similar direct solutions in polar regions? I will suggest that the answer is no, since the human controlled causes of climate change take place far removed from the poles. On the other hand, polar research has been absolutely essential for educating the public about climate change: the combination of important science and dramatic stories and images have captured the public’s attention more than for science originating in other regions. I will draw examples from several IPY projects that reached a broad public audience, and suggest that public education and outreach is the most important thing polar scientists can do to “make a difference” with respect to solving the climate crisis because environmental literacy (and an educated electorate) has been the factor that has most limited progress.

Modeling human-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Henry D.

If policymakers and the public are to be adequately informed about the climate change threat, climate modeling needs to include components far outside its conventional boundaries. An integration of climate chemistry and meteorology, oceanography, and terrestrial biology has been achieved over the past few decades. More recently the scope of these studies has been expanded to include the human systems that influence the planet, the social and ecological consequences of potential change, and the political processes that lead to attempts at mitigation and adaptation. For example, key issues—like the relative seriousness of climate change risk, the choice of long-term goals for policy, and the analysis of today's decisions when uncertainty may be reduced tomorrow—cannot be correctly understood without joint application of the natural science of the climate system and social and behavioral science aspects of human response. Though integration efforts have made significant contributions to understanding of the climate issue, daunting intellectual and institutional barriers stand in the way of needed progress. Deciding appropriate policies will be a continuing task over the long term, however, so efforts to extend the boundaries of climate modeling and assessment merit long-term attention as well. Components of the effort include development of a variety of approaches to analysis, the maintenance of a clear a division between close-in decision support and science/policy research, and the development of funding institutions that can sustain integrated research over the long haul.

Regional and Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes: the Case Study of the Beava River Basin, the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro

2013-04-01

We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.

STAR Measurements and Modeling for Quantifying Air Quality and Climatic Impacts of Residential Biomass or Coal Combustion for Cooking, Heating and Lighting Kick-off Meeting

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

STAR grantees and EPA scientists will discuss progress on their projects which aim to quantify the extent to which interventions for cleaner cooking, heating, or lighting can impact air quality and climate, which in turn affect human health and welfare

From Assessment to Action: Identifying Progress toward Enhanced Accessibility and Campus Climate (Practice Brief)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beyer, Allison N.; Moore, Crystal Dea; Totino, Jamin

2016-01-01

In 2013, a focus group of administrators, faculty, staff, and students at Skidmore College was held to discuss cross-campus changes implemented following the Assessment of Campus Climate to Enhance Student Success survey and an external disability services audit, which were conducted during the 2008-2009 academic year. The focus group gave these…

Urban ecological systems: Scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Treesearch

S.T.A. Pickett; M.L. Cadenasso; J.M. Grove; C.G. Boone; P.M. Groffman; E. Irwin; S.S. Kaushal; V. Marshall; B.P. McGrath; C.H. Nilon; R.V. Pouyat; K. Szlavecz; A. Troy; P. Warren

2011-01-01

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining...

Terrestrial mollusk records from Chinese loess sequences and changes in the East Asian monsoonal environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Naiqin; Li, Fengjiang; Rousseau, Denis-Didier

2018-04-01

The terrestrial mollusk fossils found in Chinese loess strata have been studied for over one hundred years. However, the greatest progress in these studies has been made only in the last two decades. In this paper, we review the advancements, advantages and limitations of terrestrial mollusk studies in Chinese loess deposits. Improvements in research methods and approaches have allowed the extraction of more detailed paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information from mollusk assemblages. The broadened research scope and content have yielded many new findings and results. The mollusk record has thus become one of the most important proxies in the paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstruction of loess-paleosol sequences in China. The greatest progress in the studies of terrestrial mollusks in Chinese loess sequences can be summarized as follows: (1) modern mollusk assemblages can be classified into four ecotypes, based on their temperature and humidity requirements, including eurytopic, semi-aridiphilous and sub-humidiphilous, cold-aridiphilous, and thermo-humidiphilous types; (2) Quaternary mollusk assemblages can be modified into the following three ecological types: glacial loess, interglacial paleosol, and interstadial weakly-developed paleosol assemblages; (3) mollusk records successfully reveal long-term climatic and environmental changes reflective of the history of East Asian monsoonal variations since the Late Cenozoic, and the succession of mollusk species also indicate short-term environmental changes such as millennial climate variability during Last Glacial Maximum and unstable climatic fluctuations during glacial and interglacial periods; and (4) more recently, new analytical approaches have offered increased research potential in areas such as paleotemperature reconstruction using the isotopic compositions of modern and fossil mollusk shells, combined with higher accuracy 14C dating of Quaternary loess deposits, which will greatly improve future loess paleoenvironmental research.

Drought-induced starvation of aardvarks in the Kalahari: an indirect effect of climate change.

PubMed

Rey, Benjamin; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan; Meyer, Leith C R; Hetem, Robyn S

2017-07-01

Aardvarks ( Orycteropus afer ) are elusive burrowing mammals, predominantly nocturnal and distributed widely throughout Africa except for arid deserts. Their survival may be threatened by climate change via direct and indirect effects of increasing heat and aridity. To measure their current physiological plasticity, we implanted biologgers into six adult aardvarks resident in the semi-arid Kalahari. Following a particularly dry and hot summer, five of the study aardvarks and 11 other aardvarks at the study site died. Body temperature records revealed homeothermy (35.4-37.2°C) initially, but heterothermy increased progressively through the summer, with declining troughs in the nychthemeral rhythm of body temperature reaching as low as 25°C before death, likely due to starvation. Activity patterns shifted from the normal nocturnal to a diurnal mode. Our results do not bode well for the future of aardvarks facing climate change. Extirpation of aardvarks, which play a key role as ecosystem engineers, may disrupt stability of African ecosystems. © 2017 The Author(s).

Half the story: Thermal effects on within-host infectious disease progression in a warming climate.

PubMed

Stewart, Alexander; Hablützel, Pascal I; Brown, Martha; Watson, Hayley V; Parker-Norman, Sophie; Tober, Anya V; Thomason, Anna G; Friberg, Ida M; Cable, Joanne; Jackson, Joseph A

2018-01-01

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold-blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within-host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid-latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three-spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a "wild" model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within-host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune-associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection-specific way. Combining laboratory-determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within-host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of climate and eolian dust on the major-element chemistry and clay mineralogy of soils in the northern Bighorn basin, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reheis, M.C.

1990-01-01

Soil chronosequences in the northern Bighorn basin permit the study of chronologic changes in the major-element chemistry and clay mineralogy of soils formed in different climates. Two chronosequences along Rock Creek in south-central Montana formed on granitic alluvium in humid and semiarid climates over the past two million years. A chronosequence at the Kane fans in north-central Wyoming formed on calcareous alluvium in an arid climate over the past 600,000 years. Detailed analyses of elemental chemistry indicate that the soils in all three areas gradually incorporated eolian dust that contained less zirconium, considered to be chemically immobile during weathering, than did the alluvium. B and C horizons of soils in the wettest of the chronosequences developed mainly at logarithmic rates, suggesting that leaching, initially rapid but decelerating, dominated the dust additions. In contrast, soils in the most arid of the chronosequences developed at linear rates that reflect progressive dust additions that were little affected by leaching. Both weathering and erosion may cause changes with time to appear logarithmic in A horizons of soils under the moist and semiarid climatic regimes. Clay minerals form with time in the basal B and C horizons and reflect climatic differences in the three areas. Vermiculite, mixed-layer illite-smectite, and smectite form in the soils of the moist-climate chronosequence; smectite forms in the semiarid-climate chronosequence; and smectite and palygorskite form in the arid-climate chronosequence. ?? 1990.

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

Biogas Opportunities Roadmap Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None, None

In support of the Obama Administration's Climate Action Plan, the U.S. Department of Energy, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and U.S. Department of Agriculture jointly released the Biogas Opportunities Roadmap Progress Report, updating the federal government's progress to reduce methane emissions through biogas systems since the Biogas Opportunities Roadmap was completed by the three agencies in July 2014. The report highlights actions taken, outlines challenges and opportunities, and identifies next steps to the growth of a robust biogas industry.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices.

PubMed

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

Impact of Climate Variability and Landscape Patterns on Water Budget and Nutrient Loads in a Peri-urban Watershed: A Coupled Analysis Using Process-based Hydrological Model and Landscape Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chongwei; Zhang, Yajuan; Kharel, Gehendra; Zou, Chris B.

2018-06-01

Nutrient discharge into peri-urban streams and reservoirs constitutes a significant pressure on environmental management, but quantitative assessment of non-point source pollution under climate variability in fast changing peri-urban watersheds is challenging. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate water budget and nutrient loads for landscape patterns representing a 30-year progression of urbanization in a peri-urban watershed near Tianjin metropolis, China. A suite of landscape pattern indices was related to nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) loads under dry and wet climate using CANOCO redundancy analysis. The calibrated SWAT model was adequate to simulate runoff and nutrient loads for this peri-urban watershed, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) > 0.70 and percentage bias (PBIAS) between -7 and +18 for calibration and validation periods. With the progression of urbanization, forest remained the main "sink" landscape while cultivated and urban lands remained the main "source" landscapes with the role of orchard and grassland being uncertain and changing with time. Compared to 1984, the landscape use pattern in 2013 increased nutrient discharge by 10%. Nutrient loads modelled under wet climate were 3-4 times higher than that under dry climate for the same landscape pattern. Results indicate that climate change could impose a far greater impact on runoff and nutrient discharge in a peri-urban watershed than landscape pattern change.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Efficient and Flexible Climate Analysis with Python in a Cloud-Based Distributed Computing Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gannon, C.

2017-12-01

As climate models become progressively more advanced, and spatial resolution further improved through various downscaling projects, climate projections at a local level are increasingly insightful and valuable. However, the raw size of climate datasets presents numerous hurdles for analysts wishing to develop customized climate risk metrics or perform site-specific statistical analysis. Four Twenty Seven, a climate risk consultancy, has implemented a Python-based distributed framework to analyze large climate datasets in the cloud. With the freedom afforded by efficiently processing these datasets, we are able to customize and continually develop new climate risk metrics using the most up-to-date data. Here we outline our process for using Python packages such as XArray and Dask to evaluate netCDF files in a distributed framework, StarCluster to operate in a cluster-computing environment, cloud computing services to access publicly hosted datasets, and how this setup is particularly valuable for generating climate change indicators and performing localized statistical analysis.

How can monthly to seasonal forecasts help to better manage power systems? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubus, L.; Troccoli, A.

2013-12-01

The energy industry increasingly depends on weather and climate, at all space and time scales. This is especially true in countries with volunteer renewable energies development policies. There is no doubt that Energy and Meteorology is a burgeoning inter-sectoral discipline. It is also clear that the catalyst for the stronger interaction between these two sectors is the renewed and fervent interest in renewable energies, especially wind and solar power. Recent progress in meteorology has led to a marked increase in the knowledge of the climate system and in the ability to forecast climate on monthly to seasonal time scales. Several studies have already demonstrated the effectiveness of using these forecasts for energy operations, for instance for hydro-power applications. However, it is also obvious that scientific progress on its own is not sufficient to increase the value of weather forecasts. The process of integration of new meteorological products into operational tools and decision making processes is not straightforward but it is at least as important as the scientific discovery. In turn, such integration requires effective communication between users and providers of these products. We will present some important aspects of energy systems in which monthly to seasonal forecasts can bring useful, if not vital, information, and we will give some examples of encouraging energy/meteorology collaborations. We will also provide some suggestions for a strengthened collaboration into the future.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

Climate change and maize yield in southern Africa: what can farm management do?

PubMed

Rurinda, Jairos; van Wijk, Mark T; Mapfumo, Paul; Descheemaeker, Katrien; Supit, Iwan; Giller, Ken E

2015-12-01

There is concern that food insecurity will increase in southern Africa due to climate change. We quantified the response of maize yield to projected climate change and to three key management options - planting date, fertilizer use and cultivar choice - using the crop simulation model, agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), at two contrasting sites in Zimbabwe. Three climate periods up to 2100 were selected to cover both near- and long-term climates. Future climate data under two radiative forcing scenarios were generated from five global circulation models. The temperature is projected to increase significantly in Zimbabwe by 2100 with no significant change in mean annual total rainfall. When planting before mid-December with a high fertilizer rate, the simulated average grain yield for all three maize cultivars declined by 13% for the periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069 and by 20% for 2070-2099 compared with the baseline climate, under low radiative forcing. Larger declines in yield of up to 32% were predicted for 2070-2099 with high radiative forcing. Despite differences in annual rainfall, similar trends in yield changes were observed for the two sites studied, Hwedza and Makoni. The yield response to delay in planting was nonlinear. Fertilizer increased yield significantly under both baseline and future climates. The response of maize to mineral nitrogen decreased with progressing climate change, implying a decrease in the optimal fertilizer rate in the future. Our results suggest that in the near future, improved crop and soil fertility management will remain important for enhanced maize yield. Towards the end of the 21st century, however, none of the farm management options tested in the study can avoid large yield losses in southern Africa due to climate change. There is a need to transform the current cropping systems of southern Africa to offset the negative impacts of climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios in China

PubMed Central

Matsumoto, Ken’ichi

2015-01-01

This study investigates how energy structure and energy security in China will change in the future under climate mitigation policy scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathways in a computable general equilibrium model. The findings suggest that to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China needs to shift its energy structure from fossil fuel dominance to renewables and nuclear. The lower the allowable emissions, the larger the shifts required. Among fossil fuels, coal use particularly must significantly decrease. Such structural shifts will improve energy self-sufficiency, thus enhancing energy security. Under the policy scenarios, energy-source diversity as measured by the Herfindahl Index improves until 2050, after which diversity declines because of high dependence on a specific energy source (nuclear and biomass). Overall, however, it is revealed that energy security improves along with progress in climate mitigation. These improvements will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement risks. PMID:26660094

Climate change impacts on global food security.

PubMed

Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

2013-08-02

Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

Estudios de clima espacial basados en observaciones solares históricas: recientes progresos y perspectivas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaquero, J. M.

During the last decades, an effort has been made to improve the sunspot number time-series, one of the more useful data set for space climate stud- ies, using historical solar observations. Moreover, not only the sunspot number can be studied using these early solar records. During the last years, historical sources (i.e., sunspot drawings and solar radius measurements) have been also used to study the space climate. Here, I review some recent progress on these issues. In a hand, there are some periods with very few sunspot records and sunspot numbers are not so reliable in these intervals. I discuss the quality of sunspot records during these interesting periods: (a) 1610-1645, (b) 1721-1761, and (c) 1779-1795. On the other hand, I dis- cuss the reliability of early sunspot drawings, sunspot position data, and solar diameter determinations to study long-term variations in our Sun. Fi- nally, some information on historical documents from Argentina and Chile related with space climate are summarised. FULL TEXT IN SPANISH

Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate, and Food Security

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Imhoff, Marc L.

2007-01-01

Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological productivity to changes in atmospheric chemistry and regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as 'the great transformation'. Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of this transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter their environments so profoundly that the local climate, atmospheric composition, and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools to observe and understand these processes in ways that can be used to plan and develop enjoyable and sustainable urban places. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and the atmosphere including weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, surface water recharge at the local level, and climate and food security globally.

Producing a Climate-Quality Database of Global Upper Ocean Profile Temperatures - The IQuOD (International Quality-controlled Ocean Database) Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sprintall, J.; Cowley, R.; Palmer, M. D.; Domingues, C. M.; Suzuki, T.; Ishii, M.; Boyer, T.; Goni, G. J.; Gouretski, V. V.; Macdonald, A. M.; Thresher, A.; Good, S. A.; Diggs, S. C.

2016-02-01

Historical ocean temperature profile observations provide a critical element for a host of ocean and climate research activities. These include providing initial conditions for seasonal-to-decadal prediction systems, evaluating past variations in sea level and Earth's energy imbalance, ocean state estimation for studying variability and change, and climate model evaluation and development. The International Quality controlled Ocean Database (IQuOD) initiative represents a community effort to create the most globally complete temperature profile dataset, with (intelligent) metadata and assigned uncertainties. With an internationally coordinated effort organized by oceanographers, with data and ocean instrumentation expertise, and in close consultation with end users (e.g., climate modelers), the IQuOD initiative will assess and maximize the potential of an irreplaceable collection of ocean temperature observations (tens of millions of profiles collected at a cost of tens of billions of dollars, since 1772) to fulfil the demand for a climate-quality global database that can be used with greater confidence in a vast range of climate change related research and services of societal benefit. Progress towards version 1 of the IQuOD database, ongoing and future work will be presented. More information on IQuOD is available at www.iquod.org.

Analysis of climate signals in the crop yield record of sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Hoffman, Alexis L; Kemanian, Armen R; Forest, Chris E

2018-01-01

Food security and agriculture productivity assessments in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) require a better understanding of how climate and other drivers influence regional crop yields. In this paper, our objective was to identify the climate signal in the realized yields of maize, sorghum, and groundnut in SSA. We explored the relation between crop yields and scale-compatible climate data for the 1962-2014 period using Random Forest, a diagnostic machine learning technique. We found that improved agricultural technology and country fixed effects are three times more important than climate variables for explaining changes in crop yields in SSA. We also found that increasing temperatures reduced yields for all three crops in the temperature range observed in SSA, while precipitation increased yields up to a level roughly matching crop evapotranspiration. Crop yields exhibited both linear and nonlinear responses to temperature and precipitation, respectively. For maize, technology steadily increased yields by about 1% (13 kg/ha) per year while increasing temperatures decreased yields by 0.8% (10 kg/ha) per °C. This study demonstrates that although we should expect increases in future crop yields due to improving technology, the potential yields could be progressively reduced due to warmer and drier climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biogenic organic emissions, air quality and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guenther, A. B.

2015-12-01

Living organisms produce copious amounts of a diverse array of metabolites including many volatile organic compounds that are released into the atmosphere. These compounds participate in numerous chemical reactions that influence the atmospheric abundance of important air pollutants and short-lived climate forcers including organic aerosol, ozone and methane. The production and release of these organics are strongly influenced by environmental conditions including air pollution, temperature, solar radiation, and water availability and they are highly sensitive to stress and extreme events. As a result, releases of biogenic organics to the atmosphere have an impact on, and are sensitive to, air quality and climate leading to potential feedback couplings. Their role in linking air quality and climate is conceptually clear but an accurate quantitative representation is needed for predictive models. Progress towards this goal will be presented including numerical model development and assessments of the predictive capability of the Model of Emission of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN). Recent studies of processes controlling the magnitude and variations in biogenic organic emissions will be described and observations of their impact on atmospheric composition will be shown. Recent advances and priorities for future research will be discussed including laboratory process studies, long-term measurements, multi-scale regional studies, global satellite observations, and the development of a next generation model for simulating land-atmosphere chemical exchange.

A Computing Infrastructure for Supporting Climate Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, C.; Bambacus, M.; Freeman, S. M.; Huang, Q.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Xu, C.; Wojcik, G. S.; Cahalan, R. F.; NASA Climate @ Home Project Team

2011-12-01

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing us on the Earth planet in the 21st century. Scientists build many models to simulate the past and predict the climate change for the next decades or century. Most of the models are at a low resolution with some targeting high resolution in linkage to practical climate change preparedness. To calibrate and validate the models, millions of model runs are needed to find the best simulation and configuration. This paper introduces the NASA effort on Climate@Home project to build a supercomputer based-on advanced computing technologies, such as cloud computing, grid computing, and others. Climate@Home computing infrastructure includes several aspects: 1) a cloud computing platform is utilized to manage the potential spike access to the centralized components, such as grid computing server for dispatching and collecting models runs results; 2) a grid computing engine is developed based on MapReduce to dispatch models, model configuration, and collect simulation results and contributing statistics; 3) a portal serves as the entry point for the project to provide the management, sharing, and data exploration for end users; 4) scientists can access customized tools to configure model runs and visualize model results; 5) the public can access twitter and facebook to get the latest about the project. This paper will introduce the latest progress of the project and demonstrate the operational system during the AGU fall meeting. It will also discuss how this technology can become a trailblazer for other climate studies and relevant sciences. It will share how the challenges in computation and software integration were solved.

[Research progress and development trend of quantitative assessment techniques for urban thermal environment.

PubMed

Sun, Tie Gang; Xiao, Rong Bo; Cai, Yun Nan; Wang, Yao Wu; Wu, Chang Guang

2016-08-01

Quantitative assessment of urban thermal environment has become a focus for urban climate and environmental science since the concept of urban heat island has been proposed. With the continual development of space information and computer simulation technology, substantial progresses have been made on quantitative assessment techniques and methods of urban thermal environment. The quantitative assessment techniques have been developed to dynamics simulation and forecast of thermal environment at various scales based on statistical analysis of thermal environment on urban-scale using the historical data of weather stations. This study reviewed the development progress of ground meteorological observation, thermal infrared remote sensing and numerical simulation. Moreover, the potential advantages and disadvantages, applicability and the development trends of these techniques were also summarized, aiming to add fundamental knowledge of understanding the urban thermal environment assessment and optimization.

Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, Stephen R.; Hinnov, Linda A.

2010-08-01

Deterministic orbital controls on climate variability are commonly inferred to dominate across timescales of 104-106 years, although some studies have suggested that stochastic processes may be of equal or greater importance. Here we explicitly quantify changes in deterministic orbital processes (forcing and/or pacing) versus stochastic climate processes during the Plio-Pleistocene, via time-frequency analysis of two prominent foraminifera oxygen isotopic stacks. Our results indicate that development of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet is paralleled by an overall amplification of both deterministic and stochastic climate energy, but their relative dominance is variable. The progression from a more stochastic early Pliocene to a strongly deterministic late Pleistocene is primarily accommodated during two transitory phases of Northern Hemisphere ice sheet growth. This long-term trend is punctuated by “stochastic events,” which we interpret as evidence for abrupt reorganization of the climate system at the initiation and termination of the mid-Pleistocene transition and at the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation. In addition to highlighting a complex interplay between deterministic and stochastic climate change during the Plio-Pleistocene, our results support an early onset for Northern Hemisphere glaciation (between 3.5 and 3.7 Ma) and reveal some new characteristics of the orbital signal response, such as the puzzling emergence of 100 ka and 400 ka cyclic climate variability during theoretical eccentricity nodes.

Climate change effects on international stability : a white paper.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Murphy, Kathryn; Taylor, Mark A.; Fujii, Joy

2004-12-01

This white paper represents a summary of work intended to lay the foundation for development of a climatological/agent model of climate-induced conflict. The paper combines several loosely-coupled efforts and is the final report for a four-month late-start Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project funded by the Advanced Concepts Group (ACG). The project involved contributions by many participants having diverse areas of expertise, with the common goal of learning how to tie together the physical and human causes and consequences of climate change. We performed a review of relevant literature on conflict arising from environmental scarcity. Rather than simply reviewingmore » the previous work, we actively collected data from the referenced sources, reproduced some of the work, and explored alternative models. We used the unfolding crisis in Darfur (western Sudan) as a case study of conflict related to or triggered by climate change, and as an exercise for developing a preliminary concept map. We also outlined a plan for implementing agents in a climate model and defined a logical progression toward the ultimate goal of running both types of models simultaneously in a two-way feedback mode, where the behavior of agents influences the climate and climate change affects the agents. Finally, we offer some ''lessons learned'' in attempting to keep a diverse and geographically dispersed group working together by using Web-based collaborative tools.« less

Contemporary Drought and Future Effects of Climate Change on the Endangered Blunt-Nosed Leopard Lizard, Gambelia sila.

PubMed

Westphal, Michael F; Stewart, Joseph A E; Tennant, Erin N; Butterfield, H Scott; Sinervo, Barry

2016-01-01

Extreme weather events can provide unique opportunities for testing models that predict the effect of climate change. Droughts of increasing severity have been predicted under numerous models, thus contemporary droughts may allow us to test these models prior to the onset of the more extreme effects predicted with a changing climate. In the third year of an ongoing severe drought, surveys failed to detect neonate endangered blunt-nosed leopard lizards in a subset of previously surveyed populations where we expected to see them. By conducting surveys at a large number of sites across the range of the species over a short time span, we were able to establish a strong positive correlation between winter precipitation and the presence of neonate leopard lizards over geographic space. Our results are consistent with those of numerous longitudinal studies and are in accordance with predictive climate change models. We suggest that scientists can take immediate advantage of droughts while they are still in progress to test patterns of occurrence in other drought-sensitive species and thus provide for more robust models of climate change effects on biodiversity.

Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januszkiewicz, Krystyna

2017-10-01

Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto andmore » away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.« less

Climate change and health: impacts, vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord; Weaver, Haylee J

2009-01-01

Global climate change is progressing and health impacts have been observed in a number of countries, including Australia. The main health impacts will be due to direct heat exposure, extreme weather, air pollution, reduced local food production, food- and vectorborne infectious diseases and mental stress. The issue is one of major public health importance. Adaptation to reduce the effects of climate change involves many different sectors to minimise negative health outcomes. Wide-scale mitigation is also required, in order to reduce the effects of climate change. In addition, future urban design must be modified to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Strategies for mitigation and adaptation can create co-benefits for both individual and community health, by reducing non-climate-related health hazard exposures and by encouraging health promoting behaviours and lifestyles.

Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Bailey, Liam D; van de Pol, Martijn

2016-01-01

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and structure. ECEs are often poorly defined and have often been confusingly equated with climatic variability, making comparison between studies difficult. In addition, a focus on short-term studies has provided us with little information on the long-term implications of ECEs, and the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many studies has meant it is still unclear what the key research questions are. Synthesizing the current state of work is essential to identify ways to make progress. We conduct a synthesis of the literature and discuss conceptual and practical challenges faced by research on ECEs. We consider three steps to advance research. First, we discuss the importance of choosing an ECE definition and identify the pros and cons of 'climatological' and 'biological' definitions of ECEs. Secondly, we advocate research beyond short-term descriptive studies to address questions concerning the long-term implications of ECEs, focussing on selective pressures and phenotypically plastic responses and how they might differ from responses to a changing climatic mean. Finally, we encourage a greater focus on multi-event studies that help us understand the implications of changing patterns of ECEs, through the combined use of modelling, experimental and observational field studies. This study aims to open a discussion on the definitions, questions and methods currently used to study ECEs, which will lead to a more cohesive approach to future ECE research. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

The BGC Feedbacks Scientific Focus Area 2016 Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffman, Forrest M.; Riley, William J.; Randerson, James T.

2016-06-01

The BGC Feedbacks Project will identify and quantify the feedbacks between biogeochemical cycles and the climate system, and quantify and reduce the uncertainties in Earth System Models (ESMs) associated with those feedbacks. The BGC Feedbacks Project will contribute to the integration of the experimental and modeling science communities, providing researchers with new tools to compare measurements and models, thereby enabling DOE to contribute more effectively to future climate assessments by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

"Zweckoptimismus" and the Paris process will not save the world from climate catastrophe.

PubMed

Clémençon, Raymond

2018-03-01

Politicians, government officials, business representatives, and nongovernmental climate activists all in various ways emphasize what they see as progress being made in the aftermath of the Paris Agreement, even if they continue to warn of the dire consequences of business as usual. Indeed, there is no lack of encouraging private and public sector initiatives on climate change. Some macro trends seem to be moving in the right direction, as well. But, closer scrutiny shows that these positive trends are still far from adding up to the necessary fundamental shift in the global energy economy. Furthermore, the public may greatly overestimate the advancement of renewable solar and wind energy technology, which contributes to a false sense of progress and lessens political urgency. Without determined and reinvigorated political leadership from the European Union (EU), there is little hope that necessary emission reduction goals to stay below 2 °C above preindustrial levels can be met. The EU has driven international climate policy from the beginning of climate negotiations, and there is unfortunately no other source of leadership in sight. It will require difficult political decisions to be taken sooner rather than later to force a much quicker domestic energy transition and to raise financing to help developing countries with their own energy transition and adaptation to a rapidly warming world. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:198-201. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

2006-01-01

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience. PMID:16966082

Hydrological study of climate change impact on the Llobregat basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Ballinas-Gonzáles, Romeo; Sempere-Torres, Daniel; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Climate change may cause a progressive increase of atmospheric temperature and consequently may change the amount, frequency and intensity of precipitation. All these changes of meteorological variables may modify the water cycle: run-off, infiltration, aquifer recharge, etc… In Spain, climate change scenarios describe a general trend to increase temperature and reduced precipitation. This would result in a reduction of available water between 5 and 14% that can rise to 20-22% for the scenarios of the XXI century (AEMET, 2008). This work has focused on studying the impacts of climate change in one of the most important basins in Catalonia (Spain), the Llobregat river basin. It is a highly populated and urbanized catchment, where water resources are used for different purposes, such as drinking water production, agriculture irrigation, industry and hydro-electric energy production. This work is part of the European project "Water Change" (included in the LIFE + Environment Policy and Governance program) which deals with medium and long-term water resources modelling as a tool for planning and global change adaptation. Usually, to study the impact of climate change, future climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) are used. To adapt the large-scale information provided by GCMs to a finer spatial scale required for regional and environmental impact studies, downscaling techniques have been developed. Here, an analogues downscaling method has been applied to simulate daily precipitation projections at rain gauge locations. The HBV hydrological model has been chosen to evaluate the discharges for strategic points (dam, channel and water extractions) in different areas within the watershed. The first results have shown that the water available for supply has a tendency to decrease, implying that measures have to be taken to face the future miss.

Novel approaches to reducing uncertainty in regional climate predictions (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.

2009-12-01

Regional planning in preparation for future climate changes is rapidly gaining importance. However, compared to the global mean projections, correctly anticipating regional climate is often much more difficult, particularly with regard to hydrologic changes. The reason for the high, inherent uncertainty in location specific forecasts arises on one hand from the superposition of large internal variability in the atmosphere-ocean system on the more gradual changes. On the other hand, this problem is confounded by the fact that regional climate records are often short and therefore offer little guidance as to how an underlying trend can be identified within the noise. The use of indirect climate information (proxy records) from a host of natural archives has made significant progress recently. Based on an extended record, process studies can help reveal the regional response to changes in large scale climate that likely have to be expected. But in order to come up with robust, season and parameter specific (temperature versus moisture) climate reconstructions, comprehensive data compilations are needed that integrate proxy records of different characteristics, temporal representations, and different systematic and sampling uncertainties. Based on understanding of physical processes, and making explicit use of that knowledge, new dynamical and statistical techniques in paleoclimatology are being developed and explored. In addition to improved estimates of the past climate, the cascade of uncertainties is directly taken into account so that errors can more comprehensively be assessed. A brief overview of the problems and its potential implications for regional planning is followed by an application that demonstrates how collaboration between paleoclimatologists, climate modelers and statisticians can advance our understanding of the climate system and how agencies, businesses and individuals might be able to make better informed decisions in preparation for future climate.

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E.

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-08-16

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors.

A review on regional convection permitting climate modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Lipzig, Nicole; Prein, Andreas; Brisson, Erwan; Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Demuzere, Matthias; Saeed, Sajjad; Stengel, Martin

2016-04-01

With the increase of computational resources, it has recently become possible to perform climate model integrations where at least part the of convection is resolved. Since convection-permitting models (CPMs) are performing better than models where convection is parameterized, especially for high-impact weather like extreme precipitation, there is currently strong scientific progress in this research domain (Prein et al., 2015). Another advantage of CPMs, that have a horizontal grid spacing <4 km, is that they better resolve complex orography and land use. The regional climate model COSMO-CLM is frequently applied for CPM simulations, due to its non-hydrostatic dynamics and open international network of scientists. This presentation consists of an overview of the recent progress in CPM, with a focus on COSMO-CLM. It consists of three parts, namely the discussion of i) critical components of CPM, ii) the added value of CPM in the present-day climate and iii) the difference in climate sensitivity in CPM compared to coarser scale models. In terms of added value, the CPMs especially improve the representation of precipitation's, diurnal cycle, intensity and spatial distribution. However, an in depth-evaluation of cloud properties with CCLM over Belgium indicates a strong underestimation of the cloud fraction, causing an overestimation of high temperature extremes (Brisson et al., 2016). In terms of climate sensitivity, the CPMs indicate a stronger increase in flash floods, changes in hail storm characteristics, and reductions in the snowpack over mountains compared to coarser scale models. In conclusion, CPMs are a very promising tool for future climate research. However, additional efforts are necessary to overcome remaining deficiencies, like improving the cloud characteristics. This will be a challenging task due to compensating deficiencies that currently exist in `state-of-the-art' models, yielding a good representation of average climate conditions. In the light of using CPMs to study climate change it is necessary that these deficiencies are addressed in future research. Coordinated modeling programs are crucially needed to advance parameterizations of unresolved physics and to assess the full potential of CPMs. Brisson, E., K. Van Weverberg, M. Demuzere, A. Devis, S. Saeed, M. Stengel, N.P.M. van Lipzig, 2016. How well can a convection-permitting climate model reproduce 1 decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud characteristics? Clim. Dyn. (minor revisions). Prein, Andreas F., Wolfgang Langhans, Giorgia Fosser, Andrew Ferrone, Nikolina Ban, Klaus Goergen, Michael Keller, Merja Tölle, Oliver Gutjahr, Frauke Feser, Erwan Brisson, Stefan Kollet, Juerg Schmidli, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Ruby Leung. (2015) A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges. Reviews of Geophysics 53:10.1002/rog.v53.2, 323-361

The pollen complex from postglacial sediments of the Laptev Sea as a bioindicator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naidina, O. D.

2014-05-01

The first results of comparison of palynological analysis (pollen of terrestrial plants), SEM analysis of pollen morphology, and radiocarbon age dating (AMS14C) of sediments of the eastern shelf of the Laptev Sea show that the diverse taxonomic composition of pollen spectra provides an integrated idea of the vegetation and climate of the region over 11.2 calendar kiloyears. It is found that phases of the tree and shrub vegetation development (maxima of pollen of Betula sect. Nanae and Pinus s/g Haploxylon) correspond to the warm epochs in the Holocene. It is obvious that birch phytocoenoses first settled in the southern tundra subzone with increasing temperature, and then coniferous communities of forest tundra. An occurrence of pollen of shrubby birches (Nanae) suggests compliance of permafrost landscapes with cold climate conditions, i.e., with an annual average temperature of -2°C and amount of precipitation of less than 500 mm. Owing to a progressive increase in summer temperatures, dwarf cedar and pine communities advanced toward the seashore. The SEM analysis results show that a significant proportion of regional coniferous pollen belongs to representatives of Pinus pumila (Pall.) and P. sylvestris L. In addition, the SEM study of the exine of Pinus sylvestris L. and P. pumila (Pall.) Regel pollen grains confirmed polymorphism in coniferous pollen. According to the inverse relationship between climate and vegetation, frequent climate fluctuations that are typical of progressive and differential postglacial transgression were revealed. An increase in arboreal pollen transfer onto the shelf later than 9.1 cal. ka coincides with the time of forest boundary migration to the north due to the warming of the Earth's climate. At that time, the tundra vegetation was replaced by forest-tundra vegetation, the maximum stage of sea transgression began, and there appeared a trend of increasing temperature and moisture.

How Can Urban Policies Improve Air Quality and Help Mitigate Global Climate Change: a Systematic Mapping Review.

PubMed

Slovic, Anne Dorothée; de Oliveira, Maria Aparecida; Biehl, João; Ribeiro, Helena

2016-02-01

Tackling climate change at the global level is central to a growing field of scientific research on topics such as environmental health, disease burden, and its resulting economic impacts. At the local level, cities constitute an important hub of atmospheric pollution due to the large amount of pollutants that they emit. As the world population shifts to urban centers, cities will increasingly concentrate more exposed populations. Yet, there is still significant progress to be made in understanding the contribution of urban pollutants other than CO2, such as vehicle emissions, to global climate change. It is therefore particularly important to study how local governments are managing urban air pollution. This paper presents an overview of local air pollution control policies and programs that aim to reduce air pollution levels in megacities. It also presents evidence measuring their efficacy. The paper argues that local air pollution policies are not only beneficial for cities but are also important for mitigating and adapting to global climate change. The results systematize several policy approaches used around the world and suggest the need for more in-depth cross-city studies with the potential to highlight best practices both locally and globally. Finally, it calls for the inclusion of a more human rights-based approach as a mean of guaranteeing of clean air for all and reducing factors that exacerbate climate change.

Inter-decadal variability of phytoplankton biomass along the coastal West Antarctic Peninsula.

PubMed

Kim, Hyewon; Ducklow, Hugh W; Abele, Doris; Ruiz Barlett, Eduardo M; Buma, Anita G J; Meredith, Michael P; Rozema, Patrick D; Schofield, Oscar M; Venables, Hugh J; Schloss, Irene R

2018-06-28

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a climatically sensitive region where periods of strong warming have caused significant changes in the marine ecosystem and food-web processes. Tight coupling between phytoplankton and higher trophic levels implies that the coastal WAP is a bottom-up controlled system, where changes in phytoplankton dynamics may largely impact other food-web components. Here, we analysed the inter-decadal time series of year-round chlorophyll- a (Chl) collected from three stations along the coastal WAP: Carlini Station at Potter Cove (PC) on King George Island, Palmer Station on Anvers Island and Rothera Station on Adelaide Island. There were trends towards increased phytoplankton biomass at Carlini Station (PC) and Palmer Station, while phytoplankton biomass declined significantly at Rothera Station over the studied period. The impacts of two relevant climate modes to the WAP, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, on winter and spring phytoplankton biomass appear to be different among the three sampling stations, suggesting an important role of local-scale forcing than large-scale forcing on phytoplankton dynamics at each station. The inter-annual variability of seasonal bloom progression derived from considering all three stations together captured ecologically meaningful, seasonally co-occurring bloom patterns which were primarily constrained by water-column stability strength. Our findings highlight a coupled link between phytoplankton and physical and climate dynamics along the coastal WAP, which may improve our understanding of overall WAP food-web responses to climate change and variability.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Potential for an Arctic-breeding migratory bird to adjust spring migration phenology to Arctic amplification.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Scholten, Ilse; Bauer, Silke; Cobben, Marleen M P; Ens, Bruno J; Nolet, Bart A

2017-10-01

Arctic amplification, the accelerated climate warming in the polar regions, is causing a more rapid advancement of the onset of spring in the Arctic than in temperate regions. Consequently, the arrival of many migratory birds in the Arctic is thought to become increasingly mismatched with the onset of local spring, consequently reducing individual fitness and potentially even population levels. We used a dynamic state variable model to study whether Arctic long-distance migrants can advance their migratory schedules under climate warming scenarios which include Arctic amplification, and whether such an advancement is constrained by fuel accumulation or the ability to anticipate climatic changes. Our model predicts that barnacle geese Branta leucopsis suffer from considerably reduced reproductive success with increasing Arctic amplification through mistimed arrival, when they cannot anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring from their wintering grounds. When geese are able to anticipate a more rapid progress of Arctic spring, they are predicted to advance their spring arrival under Arctic amplification up to 44 days without any reproductive costs in terms of optimal condition or timing of breeding. Negative effects of mistimed arrival on reproduction are predicted to be somewhat mitigated by increasing summer length under warming in the Arctic, as late arriving geese can still breed successfully. We conclude that adaptation to Arctic amplification may rather be constrained by the (un)predictability of changes in the Arctic spring than by the time available for fuel accumulation. Social migrants like geese tend to have a high behavioural plasticity regarding stopover site choice and migration schedule, giving them the potential to adapt to future climate changes on their flyway. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change studies and the human sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

2017-09-01

Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

A Nine-year Record of Groundwater Environmental Tracer Variations in a Weathered Sandstone Plateau Aquifer.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cendon, D. I.; Hankin, S. I.; Hughes, C. E.; Meredith, K.; Peterson, M.; Scheiber, L.; Shimizu, Y.

2016-12-01

Most groundwater isotopic studies are limited to one snapshot in time due to high costs associated with sampling and analytical procedures. The timing of sampling within long-term seasonal climatic cycles may affect interpretations, particularly in unconfined or semi-confined aquifer systems. To test the potential influence of decadal climatic trends, particularly on groundwater residence time, we have combined results from a multi-year sampling programme. Hydrogeochemistry and isotopic tracer analysis including H2O stable isotopes, δ13CDIC, 3H, 14CDIC for all samples and 87Sr/86Sr and NO3-δ15N, have been applied to groundwater recovered from the Kulnura - Mangrove Mountain aquifer hosted by a weathered sandstone plateau within the Sydney Basin (Australia). In general, the study area is characterised by alternating dry and wet periods that can be prolonged as they are linked to wider climatic events such as El Niño, La Niña and modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole. The region experienced above average rainfall from 1985-1990 followed by generally drier conditions (1991-2007) and slightly wetter conditions to 2015. Groundwater results from the first years (2006-2010), under generally dry conditions resulted in lower groundwater levels, revealed important inter-annual variations. These are interpreted to be locally driven by groundwater extraction, resulting in a progressive influx of modern groundwater. The progressive input of modern water has exposed deeper parts of the aquifer to increased NO3- concentrations of anthropogenic origin. The change in chemistry of the groundwater, particularly the lowering of groundwater pH, has accelerated the dissolution of carbonate mineral phases that in turn affects 14C residence time assessments. Subsequent sampling results (2012-2015), under higher rainfall conditions, suggest modern recharge in areas previously without measurable tritium activities. The complex interplay between recharge, anthropogenic influences and climate may be further complicated by the local irregularities in the sandstone weathering profile and the transition to preferential groundwater fracture-flow with depth.

USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

2016-12-01

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): implementation approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucio, Filipe

2013-04-01

The Extraordinary Session of the World Meteorological Congress, held from 29 to 31 October 2012, adopted the Implementation Plan of the Global Framework for Climate Services, for the subsequent consideration by the Intergovernmental Board on Climate Services, which will host its first session in July 2013. The Extraordinary Congress called for an immediate move to action, so that the work undertaken can result in activities on the ground which will benefit, in particular, vulnerable countries. The development of the GFCS through a broad consultation process accross the pillars of the GFCS (User Interface Platform; Observations and Monitoring; Climate Services Information System; Research, Modelling and Prediction; and Capacity Development) and the initial four priority areas (Agriculture and Food Security; Water; Health and Disaster Risk Reductio) identified a number of challenges, which in some cases constitute barries to implementation: - Accessibility: many countries do not have climate services at all, and all countries have scope to improve access to such services; - Capacity: many countries lack the capacity to anticipate and managed climate-related risks and opportunities; - Data: the current availability and quality of climate observations and impacts data are inadequate for large parts of the globe; - Partnerships: mechanisms to enhance interaction between climate users and providers are not always well developed, and user requirements are not always adequately understood and addressed; - Quality: operational climate services are lagging advances in climate and applications science, and the spatial and temporal resolution of information to support decision-making is often insufficient to match user requirements. To address these challenges, the Implementation Plan of the GFCS identified initial implementation projects and activities. The initial priority is to establish the leadership and management capacity to take the GFCS forward at all levels. Capacity development is seen as the critical element to build the foundation for progress. This includes but not limited to: - Linking climate services users and providers, e.g., through User Interface mechanisms; - Developing capacities at national level; - Strengthening regional climate capabilities. Taking advantage of exhausting mechanisms and others under planning the GFCS offers an adequate platform for coordination and integration of efforts towards effective action to deliver user tailored climate services. This paper will provide details on the implementation approach of the GFCS and highlight progress made thus far.

Air Pollution: Current and Future Challenges

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Despite the dramatic progress to date, air pollution continues to threaten Americans’ health and welfare. The main obstacles are climate change, conventional air pollution, and ozone layer depletion.

Regional climate science: lessons and opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P. W.; Miles, E. L.; Whitely Binder, L.

2008-12-01

Since its founding in 1995, the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington (UW) has achieved remarkable success at translating global- and regional-scale science into forms and products that are useful to, and used by, decision-makers. From GCM scenarios to research on the connection between global climate patterns and locally important factors like floods and wildfires, CIG's strong physical science foundation is matched by a vigorous and successful outreach program. As a result, CIG and its partner the Office of Washington State Climatologist at UW have made substantial progress at bridging the gap between climate science and decision-making, and are deeply involved in advising all levels of government and many business interests on adapting to climate variability and change. This talk will showcase some of the specific activities and tools, describe lessons learned, and illustrate how such efforts fit into a "National Climate Service."

Climate services: Lessons learned and future prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, Guy P.; Gallardo, Laura

2016-03-01

This perspective paper reviews progress made in the last decades to enhance the communication and use of climate information relevant to the political and economic decision process. It focuses, specifically, on the creation and development of climate services, and highlights a number of difficulties that have limited the success of these services. Among them are the insufficient awareness by societal actors of their vulnerability to climate change, the lack of relevant products and services offered by the scientific community, the inappropriate format in which the information is provided, and the inadequate business model adopted by climate services. The authors suggest that, to be effective, centers should host within the same center a diversity of staff including experts in climate science, specialists in impact, adaptation, and vulnerability, representatives of the corporate world, agents of the public service as well as social managers and communication specialists. The role and importance of environmental engineering is emphasized.

Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, John Allen

2003-01-01

Enormous advances have been made in the last quarter century in all of these needed areas, covering the two essential halves of the Sun-Climate question: in what we know of solar variations and, equally important, in what we know of the climate system and of climatic changes. These research achievements allow us to examine all aspects of the question more directly and quantitatively than was ever possible before, and in the brighter light and more objective context of other known or suspected climate change mechanisms, including human-induced global greenhouse warming. Brief summaries of present status and current understanding are given below for nine facets of Sun-Climate science in which major progress has been made in recent years. At the same time it will be seen that in every instance, significant elements of uncertainty still remain, Some of the most important of these unanswered questions are considered later, in Section IV.

How could Mosan agriculture be impacted by climate change and future droughts ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bauwens, A.; Sohier, C.; Deraedt, D.; Degré, A.

2012-04-01

Despite the great uncertainties regarding the future climatic context, lots of studies have focused on hydrological effects of climate change on the Meuse catchment. It appears that both winter high flows and summer low flows could be exacerbated. Climate change and its impacts on hydrology will thus affect various socio-economic sectors. High flows have been widely studied compared to low-flows. This poster will put the emphasis on a methodology developed in order to study impacts of droughts on agriculture. Agriculture is among the most impacted sectors due to climate change. The consequences could be both positive as negative in accordance with the range of predicted changes and the adaptation capacity of agricultural systems. Most of the existing studies related to climate change on agriculture focused on specific territory. Within the AMICE Interreg IVB project, a transnational approach has been developed to assess droughts impacts on agriculture through the Meuse basin. The project's previous works gave us a common scenario of climate trends and of the evolution of the hydrology in the Meuse basin. The methodology is based on the use of a physically-based model able to simulate the water-soil-plant continuum (derived from EPIC model). In order to be transferable from one country to another, the methodology proposed used data available at the basin scale. The UE soil data base was complemented with local information on agricultural practices and statistics. Three crops have been studied: maize, wheat and barley. The basic cultural calendar is supposed to be the same for the different countries. The methodology developed permits to study the evolution of yields, leaf area index, crops stress due to excess or lack of water through time under different scenarios build up in the frame of the project. It appears that corn is negatively affected by climate change, and thus despite the CO2 fertilization effect. Wheat and barley have similar behavior and are positively affected by climate change and CO2 fertilization. Leaf Area Index study reveals that the different crops start earlier and reach earlier maturity. These first results will be completed with other economic sectors'analysis like drinkable water production, electricity production and navigation. Therefore, the project will progress towards a better understanding of economic effects of future droughts and low-flows.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly related, with the observable high levels of interaction between all nine cities. Information is transmitted rapidly between these markets. Price seems to be discovered (where shocks originate from) in regions of high demand and perhaps shortages, like Los Angeles and Chicago (metropolitan population centers). The Maximum Likelihood approach following Spiller and Huang's model however shows cities may not belong to the same economic market and the possibility of arbitrage does not exist between all markets.

Progress on upwelling studies in the China seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Jianyu; Wang, Xiao Hua

2016-09-01

East Asian marginal seas surrounding China exhibit rich ocean upwelling, mostly in response to the southwesterly summer monsoon. Upwelling in the China seas, namely, the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the Bohai Sea, has become increasingly important because the potential changes in the upwelling may have dramatic ecosystem, socioeconomic, and climate impacts. This paper reviews the progress of upwelling studies in the China seas since the year 2000, by presenting the principal characteristics and new understanding of 12 major upwelling regions in the China seas. Upwelling exhibits long-term variability at intraseasonal to multidecadal scales as well as short-term variability frequently caused by tropical cyclones. It is also associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, local environmental variation, and biogeochemical factors. The coastal upwelling around Hainan Island and the upwelling or cold dome northeast of Taiwan Island are specifically highlighted because they have attracted great interest for decades. This paper summarizes upwelling mechanisms in terms of wind, topography, tide, stratification, and background flow, with applications mostly to the China seas. Finally, we propose some topics for future upwelling research, i.e., potential intensification of coastal upwelling under global climate change, downwelling, intrusion of upwelling into coastal embayments, and the influence of upwelling on fishery and biogeochemical processes.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

The progressive aridification of southwest North America: The what, the why, the when and the how (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seager, R.; Liu, H.; Henderson, N.; Kushnir, Y.; Ting, M.; Cook, B.; Nakamura, J.

2013-12-01

The latest generation of global coupled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five (CMIP5), much anticipated after the prior CMIP3 models projected the southwest of North America to transition in the near term to a more arid climate, turned out to be a case of deja-vu all over again. While suggesting that northern California might get more midwinter precipitation, overall the CMIP5 models, like their CMIP3 precursors, project that the interior southwest of the U.S., most of Mexico, Texas and the southern Plains, will progressively transition to a more arid climate with reduced precipitation and increased potential evapotranspiration driving a reduction in soil moisture and streamflow. An about 10% reduction of Colorado River flow for the 2021-2040 period relative to the last half of the 20th Century appears a good ball park number to motivate adaptation efforts. Here we will present new detailed analyses of Reanalysis and CMIP5 model moisture budgets to determine the causes of the projected aridification. The role of moisture convergences by the mean and transient flows will be addressed as well as the dynamical causes of the shifts in atmospheric circulation that contribute to drying or locally offset it. The hydroclimate history of the West for the past few decades will also be examined for evidence that model projected aridification is in progress or cannot currently be detected amidst the large natural variability of hydroclimate in the region. But it will be cautioned that waiting for statistical significance might be as fruitful as Waiting for Godot while, during the wait, the southwest will already have transitioned into a troublingly drier climate with serious impacts on people, societies, ecosystems and agriculture.

Chile confronts its environmental health future after 25 years of accelerated growth

PubMed Central

Pino, Paulina; Iglesias, Verónica; Garreaud, René; Cortés, Sandra; Canals, Mauricio; Folch, Walter; Burgos, Soledad; Levy, Karen; Naeher, Luke P.; Steenland, Kyle

2015-01-01

Background Chile has recently been reclassified by the World Bank from an upper middle income country to a higher income country. There has been great progress in the last 20–30 years in relation to air and water pollution in Chile. Yet after 25 years of unrestrained growth there remain clear challenges posed by air and water, as well as climate change. Methods: In late 2013 a three-day workshop on environmental health was held in Santiago, bringing together researchers and government policy makers. As a follow-up to that workshop, here we review the progress made in environmental health in the past 20–30 years, and discuss the challenges of the future. We focus on air and water pollution, and climate change, which we believe are among the most important areas of environmental health in Chile. Results Air pollution in some cities remains among the highest in the continent. Potable water is generally available, but weak state supervision has led to serious outbreaks of infectious disease and ongoing issues with arsenic exposure in some regions. Climate change modeling in Chile is quite sophisticated, and a number of the impacts of climate change can be reasonably predicted in terms of which areas of the country are most likely to be affected by increased temperature and decreased availability of water, as well as expansion of vector territory. Some health effects, including change vector-borne diseases and excess heat mortality, can be predicted. However, there has yet to be an integration of such research with government planning. Conclusion While great progress has been made, currently there are a number of problems. We suspect that the Chilean experience in environmental health may be of some use for other Latin American countries with rapid economic development. PMID:26615070

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Developing Capacity for Cities to Adapt to a Changing Climate-a Case Study in Boulder, Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sands, R.; Groves, D. G.; Nason, M.; Pandya, R.

2016-12-01

The City of Boulder in Colorado has undertaken many progressive climate-related initiatives, from signing the Kyoto protocol to passing a Climate Action Tax. But as the city prepared to launch its Climate Commitment document and lead a community process, it realized that one critical group that had not been fully engaged in the process was its own staff. It became clear that for organizational change to occur and for the city to meet its goals, city staff needed to develop a deeper understanding of the importance of the climate goals while also learning better how to use these goals to guide their long-term planning. In early 2016, the city launched a year-long "Climate Leaders" initiative which comprised of a series of workshops that brought together over 70 staff members with climate scientists and experts in climate adaptation planning. The first two workshops, billed as Climate 101 and 201, reviewed the best available scientific information about climate threats and potential impacts, and worked with participants to understand how climate changes could affect diverse city functions. These interactive workshops also explored ways to help city staff feel comfortable preparing for a significantly different climate and discussed ways to communicate this information to the public. From there the group split into two tracks. A "mitigation" track focused on the ways in which Boulder could meet its aggressive emissions reduction targets. The "adaptation" track developed integrated scenarios for citywide planning to highlight Boulder's vulnerability to climate change and guide adaptation planning. Bringing these two conversations together is helping city staff to explore critical linkages between mitigation and adaptation, develop common messages to build community support for climate action, and inform comprehensive climate resiliency planning. We will describe how Boulder successfully partnered with scientists and planning experts to program a year of interactive workshops to bring diverse city staff into the climate action process. We will share outcomes from the development of the integrated climate scenarios vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. Lastly we will share key lessons learned that will be valuable to other cities and jurisdictions engaging in similar climate action.

The Impacts of Climate-Induced Drought on Biogeochemical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, C.

2014-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global biogeochemical cycles and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets. Recent studies indicated that forest mortality caused by rising temperature and drought from around the world have unexpectedly increased in the past decade and they collectively illustrate the vulnerability of many forested ecosystems to rapid increases in tree mortality due to warmer temperatures and more severe drought. Persistent changes in tree mortality rates can alter forest structure, composition, and ecosystem services (such as albedo and carbon sequestration). Quantifying potential impacts of tree mortality on ecosystem processes requires research into mortality effects on carbon, energy, and water budgets at both site and regional levels. Despite recent progress, the uncertainty around mortality responses still limits our ability to predict the likelihood and anticipate the impacts of tree die-off. Studies are needed that explore tree death physiology for a wide variety of functional types, connect patterns of mortality with climate events, and quantify the impacts on carbon, energy, and water flux. In this presentation, I will highlight recent research progress, and identify key research needs and future challenges to predict the consequence and impacts of drought-induced large-scale forest mortality on biogeochemical cycles. I will focus on three main forest ecosystems (tropic rainforest in Amazon, temperate forest in Western USA, and boreal forest in Canada) as detailed case studies.

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening.

PubMed

Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Hilker, Thomas; Maeda, Eduardo Eiji; Sanchez, Alber; Lyapustin, Alexei I; Galvão, Lênio Soares; Wang, Yujie; Aragão, Luiz E O C

2017-01-01

Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Climate and vegetation change during the Holocene in southern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez Moreno, Gonzalo; Anderson, R. Scott; Ramos-Roman, María J.; Camuera, Jon; Garcia-Alix, Antonio; Jimenez-Espejo, FranciscoJ.; Toney, Jaime L.; Mesa-Fernandez, Jose Manuel; Manzano, Saul; Carrion, Jose S.

2017-04-01

Detailed pollen analysis has been carried out on several sediment cores taken from high-elevation alpine lakes and bog areas located in Sierra Nevada and coastal and offshore environments from southern Spain. The early Holocene is characterized in these records by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen records show a progressive aridification trend since the beginning of the middle Holocene through a decrease in forest species and the increase in xerophytes. The progressive aridification is punctuated by millennial-scale periodically enhanced droughts that coincide in timing and duration with well-known arid events in the Mediterranean and other areas. A relatively humid period occurred during the Iberian-Roman Humid Period. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1300 AD) was characterized by a wet phase at first, coinciding with a solar minimum, and a later arid phase, coinciding with the Medieval solar Maximum and a positive NAO. The Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) was markedly wetter than earlier, as shown by the increase in tree pollen, coinciding with a phase of negative NAO and the Maunder solar minimum. This study shows that vegetation and climate in the Western Mediterranean are modulated by solar and atmospheric factors. Out-of-trend vegetation changes are observed in the last centuries, which probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the wetlands, Olea cultivation at lower elevations and Pinus reforestation.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases: Getting A Grip on Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glass, G. E.; Ellis, H.

2011-12-01

Pathogens that are transmitted by arthropods to humans kill millions of people a year and have long been identified as systems likely affected by climate change. Despite this, there has been a long controversy of how to evaluate the responses of these infectious disease systems to climatic conditions so that meaningful programmatic dcisions can be made. We briefly review the rationale for overall expectations, using them to identify both the temporal and spatial resolution needed for decision making and then discuss progress to date, using the world global malaria eradication program as an example.

Effect of climate on the storage and turnover of carbon in soils

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trumbore, Susan; Chadwick, Oliver; Amundson, Ronald; Brasher, Benny

1994-01-01

Climate is, in many instances, the dominant variable controlling the storage of carbon in soils. It has proven difficult, however, to determine how soil properties influenced by climate, such as soil temperature and soil moisture, actually operate to determine the rates of accumulation and decomposition of soil organic matter. Our approach has been to apply a relatively new tool, the comparison of C-14 in soil organic matter from pre- and post-bomb soils, to quantify carbon turnover rates along climosequences. This report details the progress made toward this end by work under this contract.

Fast-track knowledge transfer from climate studies to user's decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Côté, Hélène; de Elía, Ramón; Larrivée, Caroline; Chaumont, Diane

2017-04-01

Over the last decade, many countries implemented various initiatives to bring their scientific community to develop more research projects addressing end-user needs. This shift in priorities gave rise to new expressions such as « actionable science », « co-production of knowledge » etc. This phenomenon is noteworthy in climate and climate change related research due to the pressing needs for societies to both adapt to climate change and quickly reduce greenhouse gases emissions. Although the attempt to include users into their projects made perfect sense, academic and even governmental researchers have often been overwhelmed by the "language barrier", the variety of needs, and the magnitude of the viewpoint change required to provide salient, credible and legitimate information to decision makers. In addition, many researchers worry that their growing involvement with users might jeopardize the progress of their own scientific interests and slowdown their academic careers. Useŕs needs are not necessarily well defined nor solely driven by scientific issues. They are a more or less complex mixture of short-term obligations like the sudden realization that an imminent decision needs to take climate change into account, long-term concerns about their risks and vulnerabilities, and knowledge gaps involving interdisciplinary inputs and communication challenges. In this context, the emergence of boundary organizations is a convincing approach to build the interface between science and end users. Since a single individual or even a single organization is rarely able to completely fulfill useŕs expectations, this presentation will show how strong and productive links between academia, boundary organization and users can stimulate knowledge transfer among all parties. To that purpose, examples will be taken from the 15-year existence of Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to Climate Change (Montreal, Canada). We will see how Ouranoś staff -with varied expertise in vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptation, regional climate modeling and climate services- interacts with their partners in several climate related studies.

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed. PMID:22712716

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

1997-01-01

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Trees, History, and Isotopes - the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) in the Pannonian Basin, Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazmer, M.; Demeny, A.; Grynaeus, A.; Racz, L.; Varkonyi, A.

2002-05-01

First results of a comprehensive study on climate change in the Pannonian Basin during the Late Maunder Minimum (1675-1715) are presented. The Pannonian Basin has continental climate, distinctly warm and dry in summer, cold in winter, unlike the Atlantic-type climate of Western Europe. Surrounded by the arc of the Carpathians, exposed to Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Siberian influences, the regional climate displays steep gradients. More than one tree-ring chronology for oak is being built, independent of the south German series. Rethly's rich database of historical sources has been assembled, and completed with recently published letters. Ring-width series are measured on oak, and skeleton plots are logged. Study of hydrogen isotope composition of tree rings is in progress. Tree-ring width faithfully reflects historical indices on spring (i.e. earlywood growth season) precipitation. Generally, precipitation - as shown both by indices and tree-ring width - was high and temperature low during the growth season in the first half of the LMM. The second half has seen a retardation in oak growth and an increase in spring temperature. The decades of the Late Maunder Minimum was a politically turbulent era: it saw the decline and fall of the Ottoman domination in Hungary, followed by a rebellion against Austrian rule, associated with disruption of national economy.

Social climate along the pathway of care in women's secure mental health service: variation with level of security, patient motivation, therapeutic alliance and level of disturbance.

PubMed

Long, C G; Anagnostakis, K; Fox, E; Silaule, P; Somers, J; West, R; Webster, A

2011-07-01

Social climate has been measured in a variety of therapeutic settings, but there is little information about it in secure mental health services, or how it may vary along a gender specific care pathway. To assess social climate in women's secure wards and its variation by level of security and ward type, therapeutic alliance, patient motivation, treatment engagement and disturbed behaviour. Three-quarters (80, 76%) of staff and nearly all (65, 92%) of patients in the two medium-security wards and two low-security wards that comprised the unit completed the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) and the California Psychotherapy Alliance Scale (CALPAS); patients also completed the Patient Motivation Inventory (PMI). Pre-assessment levels of disturbed behaviour and treatment engagement were recorded. Social climate varied according to ward type and level of security. EssenCES ratings indicative of positive social climate were associated with lower levels of security; such ratings were also associated with lower behavioural disturbance and with higher levels of motivation, treatment engagement and therapeutic alliance. This serial cross-sectional survey indicated that use of the EssenCES alone might be a good practical measure of treatment progress/responsivity. A longitudinal study would be an important next step in establishing the extent to which it would be useful in this regard. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Stocks, Brian J.; Gauthier, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Climate-influenced changes in fire regimes in northern temperate and boreal regions will have both ecological and economic ramifications. We examine possible future wildfire area burned and suppression costs using a recently compiled historical (i.e., 1980–2009) fire management cost database for Canada and several Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections. Area burned was modelled as a function of a climate moisture index (CMI), and fire suppression costs then estimated as a function of area burned. Future estimates of area burned were generated from projections of the CMI under two emissions pathways for four General Circulation Models (GCMs); these estimates were constrained to ecologically reasonable values by incorporating a minimum fire return interval of 20 years. Total average annual national fire management costs are projected to increase to just under $1 billion (a 60% real increase from the 1980–2009 period) under the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway and $1.4 billion (119% real increase from the base period) under the high emissions pathway by the end of the century. For many provinces, annual costs that are currently considered extreme (i.e., occur once every ten years) are projected to become commonplace (i.e., occur once every two years or more often) as the century progresses. It is highly likely that evaluations of current wildland fire management paradigms will be necessary to avoid drastic and untenable cost increases as the century progresses. PMID:27513660

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2017-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: Exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; DeWaard, Jack; Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia; Ha, Jasmine Trang

2016-01-01

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts. PMID:28435176

Great Basin paleoenvironmental studies project; Third quarterly technical progress report, December 1993--February 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-04-01

Examination of the paleolithic and geomorphic records to determine the local and regional impact of past climates will advance assessment of Yucca Mountain`s suitability as a high-level nuclear waste repository. The project includes the integration of botanical, faunal, and geomorphic components to accomplish this goal. Paleobotanical studies will reconstruct the response of vegetation to climate change at the community and the organismal levels by integrating data obtained from nearly continuous sediment records of pollen, plant macrofossils, and stable isotopes from fossil woodrat middens. The goal of the paleofaunas study is to construct a history of Great Basin vertebrates, particularly mammals,more » that will provide empirical evidence of past environmental and climatic conditions within the Great Basin as it is recorded by the animals. Taxonomic composition of archaeological and paleontological faunas from various areas within the Great Basin and morphological change within individual mammalian taxa at specific localities are being investigated to monitor faunal response to changing environmental conditions. The objective of the geomorphology component of the paleoenvironmental program is to document the responses of surficial processes and landforms to the climatic changes documented by studies of packrat middens, pollen, and faunal distributions. The project will focus on: (1) stratigraphic relationships between lake deposits and aeolian or fluvial sediments and landforms; (2) cut and fill sequences in floodplain and river-channel deposits; (3) identification of periods of dune mobility and stability; (4) documentation of episodes of alluvial fan and terrace development and erosion; and (5) correlation of (3) and (4) to climatically driven lake-level fluctuation as revealed by shoreline features such as strandlines and beach ridges. Accomplishments for this period are presented for these studies.« less

Exploratory Climate Data Visualization and Analysis Using DV3D and UVCDAT

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maxwell, Thomas

2012-01-01

Earth system scientists are being inundated by an explosion of data generated by ever-increasing resolution in both global models and remote sensors. Advanced tools for accessing, analyzing, and visualizing very large and complex climate data are required to maintain rapid progress in Earth system research. To meet this need, NASA, in collaboration with the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UVCOAT) consortium, is developing exploratory climate data analysis and visualization tools which provide data analysis capabilities for the Earth System Grid (ESG). This paper describes DV3D, a UV-COAT package that enables exploratory analysis of climate simulation and observation datasets. OV3D provides user-friendly interfaces for visualization and analysis of climate data at a level appropriate for scientists. It features workflow inte rfaces, interactive 40 data exploration, hyperwall and stereo visualization, automated provenance generation, and parallel task execution. DV30's integration with CDAT's climate data management system (COMS) and other climate data analysis tools provides a wide range of high performance climate data analysis operations. DV3D expands the scientists' toolbox by incorporating a suite of rich new exploratory visualization and analysis methods for addressing the complexity of climate datasets.

The contrasting climate response to tropical and extratropical energy perturbations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, Matt; Haywood, Jim M.; Collins, Mat; Jones, Andy

2018-01-01

The link between cross-equatorial energy transport, the double-intertropical convergence zone (DI) problem and biases in tropical and extratropical albedo and energy budgets in climate models have been investigated in multiple studies, though DI biases persist in many models. Here, a coupled climate model, HadGEM2-ES, is used to investigate the response to idealised energy perturbations in the tropics and extratropics, in both the northern and southern hemispheres, through the imposition of stratospheric aerosols that reflect incoming radiation. The impact on the tropical climate of high and low latitude forcing strongly contrasts, with large changes in tropical precipitation and modulation of the DI bias when the tropics are cooled as precipitation moves away from the cooled hemisphere. These responses are muted when the extratropics are cooled, as the meridional energy transport anomalies that are excited by these energy budget anomalies are partitioned between the atmosphere and ocean. The results here highlight the persistence of the DI bias in HadGEM2-ES, indicating why little progress has been made in rectifying these problems through many generations of climate models. A highly linear relationship between cross-equatorial atmospheric energy transport, tropical precipitation asymmetry and tropical sea surface temperature biases is also demonstrated, giving some suggestion as to where improvements in these large scale, persistent biases may be achieved.

Examining the impact of climate change and variability on sweet potatoes in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ddumba, S. D.; Andresen, J.; Moore, N. J.; Olson, J.; Snapp, S.; Winkler, J. A.

2013-12-01

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges to food security for the rapidly increasing population of East Africa. Rainfall is becoming more variable and temperatures are rising, consequently leading to increased occurrence of droughts and floods, and, changes in the timing and length of growing seasons. These changes have serious implications on crop production with the greatest impact likely to be on C4 crops such as cereals compared to C3 crops such as root tubers. Sweet potatoes is one the four most important food crops in East Africa owing to its high nutrition and calorie content, and, high tolerance to heat and drought, but little is known about how the crop will be affected by climate change. This study identifies the major climatic constraints to sweet potato production and examines the impact of projected future climates on sweet potato production in East Africa during the next 10 to 30 years. A process-based Sweet POTato COMputer Simulation (SPOTCOMS) model is used to assess four sweet potato cultivars; Naspot 1, Naspot 10, Naspot 11 and SPK 004-Ejumula. This is work in progress but preliminary results from the crop modeling experiments and the strength and weakness of the crop model will be presented.

Observational Constraints on Cloud Feedbacks: The Role of Active Satellite Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, David; Chepfer, Helene; Noel, Vincent; Cai, Xia

2017-11-01

Cloud profiling from active lidar and radar in the A-train satellite constellation has significantly advanced our understanding of clouds and their role in the climate system. Nevertheless, the response of clouds to a warming climate remains one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change and for the development of adaptions to change. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. We review recent progress in our understanding of the cloud feedback problem. Capabilities and advantages of active sensors for observing clouds are discussed, along with the importance of active sensors for deriving constraints on cloud feedbacks as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

PubMed

Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.

A Unified Approach to Quantifying Feedbacks in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, K. E.

2008-12-01

In order to speed progress in reducing uncertainty in climate projections, the processes that most strongly influence those projections must be identified. It is of some importance, therefore, to assess the relative strengths of various climate feedbacks and to determine the degree to which various earth system models (ESMs) agree in their simulations of these processes. Climate feedbacks have been traditionally quantified in terms of their impact on the radiative balance of the planet, whereas carbon cycle responses have been assessed in terms of the size of the perturbations to the surface fluxes of carbon dioxide. In this study we introduce a diagnostic strategy for unifying the two approaches, which allows us to directly compare the strength of carbon-climate feedbacks with other conventional climate feedbacks associated with atmospheric and surface changes. Applying this strategy to a highly simplified model of the carbon-climate system demonstrates the viability of the approach. In the simple model we find that even if the strength of the carbon-climate feedbacks is very large, the uncertainty associated with the overall response of the climate system is likely to be dominated by uncertainties in the much larger feedbacks associated with clouds. This does not imply that the carbon cycle itself is unimportant, only that changes in the carbon cycle that are associated with climate change have a relatively small impact on global temperatures. This new, unified diagnostic approach is suitable for assessing feedbacks in even the most sophisticated earth system models. It will be interesting to see whether our preliminary conclusions are confirmed when output from the more realistic models is analyzed. This work was carried out at the University of California Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract W-7405-Eng-48.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

The Education of English Language Learners in Arizona: A Legacy of Persisting Achievement Gaps in a Restrictive Language Policy Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia, Eugene E.; Lawton, Kerry; Diniz de Figueiredo, Eduardo H.

2010-01-01

This report reviews achievement gaps in both reading and math between ELL and non-ELL students in Arizona over the post-Proposition 203 period 2005-2009 and during the first year of implementation of the 4 hour ELD block, 2008-09. The study finds that Arizona has made little to no progress in closing the achievement gap between ELL and non-ELL…

Impact of human resource management practices on nursing home performance.

PubMed

Rondeau, K V; Wagar, T H

2001-08-01

Management scholars and practitioners alike have become increasingly interested in learning more about the ability of certain 'progressive' or 'high-performance' human resource management (HRM) practices to enhance organizational effectiveness. There is growing evidence to suggest that the contribution of various HRM practices to impact firm performance may be synergistic in effect yet contingent on a number of contextual factors, including workplace climate. A contingency theory perspective suggests that in order to be effective, HMR policies and practices must be consistent with other aspects of the organization, including its environment. This paper reports on empirical findings from research that examines the relationship between HRM practices, workplace climate and perceptions of organizational performance, in a large sample of Canadian nursing homes. Data from 283 nursing homes were collected by means of a mail survey that included questions on HRM practices, programmes, and policies, on human resource aspects of workplace climate, as well as a variety of indicators that include employee, customer/resident and facility measures of organizational performance. Results derived from ordered probit analysis suggest that nursing homes in our sample which had implemented more 'progressive' HRM practices and which reported a workplace climate that strongly values employee participation, empowerment and accountability tended to be perceived to generally perform better on a number of valued organizational outcomes. Nursing homes in our sample that performed best overall were found to be more likely to not only have implemented more of these HRM practices, but also to report having a workplace climate that reflects the seminal value that it places on its human resources. This finding is consistent with the conclusion that simply introducing HRM practices or programmes, in the absence of an appropriately supportive workplace climate, will be insufficient to attain optimal organizational performance.

Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.

Aridification across the Carboniferous-Permian transition in central equatorial Pangea: The Catalan Pyrenean succession (NE Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujal, Eudald; Fortuny, Josep; Marmi, Josep; Dinarès-Turell, Jaume; Bolet, Arnau; Oms, Oriol

2018-01-01

The Carboniferous-Permian terrestrial successions record a global climatic shift from icehouse to hothouse conditions. Our multidisciplinary study documents an aridification trend throughout the 1000 m thick composite terrestrial succession of the western Catalan Pyrenees (NE Iberian Peninsula), representing this time period. The detailed stratigraphic framework integrates sedimentology, paleopedology, biochronology (plant fossils and tetrapod footprints) and geochronology (paleomagnetism). Additional absolute age correlation is also carried out. The new and reviewed data show that the late Carboniferous wet environments (with short drought periods) progressively changed to a strong seasonal semi-arid and arid climate (with short humid periods) through the early Permian. This paleoclimatic trend supports the previously suggested aridification of the Pangean pan-tropical belt, and supports the hypothesis of the influence of the recurrent climatic fluctuations in Central Pangea, being tentatively correlated to the Southern Gondwanan glaciation-deglaciation periods. Therefore, the Carboniferous-Permian terrestrial succession from the Catalan Pyrenees emerges as a continuous record that can help to constrain late Paleozoic paleoenvironmental events.

Major advance of South Georgia glaciers during the Antarctic Cold Reversal following extensive sub-Antarctic glaciation

PubMed Central

Graham, Alastair G. C.; Kuhn, Gerhard; Meisel, Ove; Hillenbrand, Claus-Dieter; Hodgson, Dominic A.; Ehrmann, Werner; Wacker, Lukas; Wintersteller, Paul; dos Santos Ferreira, Christian; Römer, Miriam; White, Duanne; Bohrmann, Gerhard

2017-01-01

The history of glaciations on Southern Hemisphere sub-polar islands is unclear. Debate surrounds the extent and timing of the last glacial advance and termination on sub-Antarctic South Georgia in particular. Here, using sea-floor geophysical data and marine sediment cores, we resolve the record of glaciation offshore of South Georgia through the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene. We show a sea-bed landform imprint of a shelf-wide last glacial advance and progressive deglaciation. Renewed glacier resurgence in the fjords between c. 15,170 and 13,340 yr ago coincided with a period of cooler, wetter climate known as the Antarctic Cold Reversal, revealing a cryospheric response to an Antarctic climate pattern extending into the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. We conclude that the last glaciation of South Georgia was extensive, and the sensitivity of its glaciers to climate variability during the last termination more significant than implied by previous studies. PMID:28303885

The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

2017-12-01

The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Impact of regional afforestation on climatic conditions in metropolitan areas: case study of Copenhagen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stysiak, Aleksander Andrzej; Bergen Jensen, Marina; Mahura, Alexander

2016-04-01

Like most other places, European metropolitan areas will face a range of climate-related challenges over the next decades that may influence the nature of urban life across the continent. Under future urbanization and climate change scenarios the well-being and comfort of the urban population might become progressively compromised. In urban areas, the effects of the warming climate will be accelerated by combination of Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) and extreme heat waves. The land cover composition directly influences atmospheric variability, and can either escalate or downscale the projected changes. Vegetation, forest ecosystems in particular, are anticipated to play an important role in modulating local and regional climatic conditions, and to be vital factor in the process of adapting cities to warming climate. This study investigates the impact of forest and land-cover change on formation and development of temperature regimes in the Copenhagen Metropolitan Area (CPH-MA). Potential to modify the UHI effect in CPH-MA is estimated. Using 2009 meteorological data, and up-to-date 2012 high resolution land-cover data we employed the online integrated meteorology-chemistry/aerosols Enviro-HIRLAM (Environment - High Resolution Limited Area Model) modeling system to simulate air temperature (at 2 meter height) fields for a selected period in July 2009. Employing research tools (such as METGRAF meteorological software and Geographical Information Systems) we then estimated the influence of different afforestation and urbanization scenarios with new forests being located after the Danish national afforestation plan, after proximity to the city center, after dominating wind characteristics, and urbanization taking place as densification of the existing conurbation. This study showed the difference in temperature up to 3.25°C, and the decrease in the spatial extent of temperature fields up to 68%, depending on the selected scenario. Performed simulations demonstrated that well-positioned and well-sized afforestation at the regional scale can significantly affect the spatial distribution, structure and intensity of the temperature field. This study points to vegetation having practical applications in urban and regional planning for modifying local climatic conditions. Keywords: Urban Heat Island, Afforestation, Land cover change, Urban planning, Climate change adaptation, Enviro-HIRLAM

The National Shipbuilding Research Program 1985 Ship Production Symposium Volume 1

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-01

though there is some impact on hull construction progress because assembly is performed in shops which provide ideal climate, lighting, and access...with the production of parts is necessary in order to pay employees , report performance to budget and compute productivity. The latter requirement is...progress estimates in addition to the employees normal timecards. Even this can be eliminated by using completion of previously performed tasks as

ASRC Report, 1984-85

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1985-11-01

Research progress is reviewed for: energy and climate; aerobiology and water-air exchange; atmospheric electricity; aerosol science and air pollution; atmospheric chemistry, and cloud physics. A staff directory, bibliography, and awards listing are included. (PSB)

Uncertainty Quantification in Climate Modeling and Projection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Jackson, Charles; Giorgi, Filippo

The projection of future climate is one of the most complex problems undertaken by the scientific community. Although scientists have been striving to better understand the physical basis of the climate system and to improve climate models, the overall uncertainty in projections of future climate has not been significantly reduced (e.g., from the IPCC AR4 to AR5). With the rapid increase of complexity in Earth system models, reducing uncertainties in climate projections becomes extremely challenging. Since uncertainties always exist in climate models, interpreting the strengths and limitations of future climate projections is key to evaluating risks, and climate change informationmore » for use in Vulnerability, Impact, and Adaptation (VIA) studies should be provided with both well-characterized and well-quantified uncertainty. The workshop aimed at providing participants, many of them from developing countries, information on strategies to quantify the uncertainty in climate model projections and assess the reliability of climate change information for decision-making. The program included a mixture of lectures on fundamental concepts in Bayesian inference and sampling, applications, and hands-on computer laboratory exercises employing software packages for Bayesian inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, and global sensitivity analyses. The lectures covered a range of scientific issues underlying the evaluation of uncertainties in climate projections, such as the effects of uncertain initial and boundary conditions, uncertain physics, and limitations of observational records. Progress in quantitatively estimating uncertainties in hydrologic, land surface, and atmospheric models at both regional and global scales was also reviewed. The application of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) concepts to coupled climate system models is still in its infancy. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) multi-model ensemble currently represents the primary data for assessing reliability and uncertainties of climate change information. An alternative approach is to generate similar ensembles by perturbing parameters within a single-model framework. One of workshop’s objectives was to give participants a deeper understanding of these approaches within a Bayesian statistical framework. However, there remain significant challenges still to be resolved before UQ can be applied in a convincing way to climate models and their projections.« less

The Effects of Climate Model Similarity on Local, Risk-Based Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The climate science community has recently proposed techniques to develop probabilistic projections of climate change from ensemble climate model output. These methods provide a means to incorporate the formal concept of risk, i.e., the product of impact and probability, into long-term planning assessments for local systems under climate change. However, approaches for pdf development often assume that different climate models provide independent information for the estimation of probabilities, despite model similarities that stem from a common genealogy. Here we utilize an ensemble of projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to develop probabilistic climate information, with and without an accounting of inter-model correlations, and use it to estimate climate-related risks to a local water utility in Colorado, U.S. We show that the tail risk of extreme climate changes in both mean precipitation and temperature is underestimated if model correlations are ignored. When coupled with impact models of the hydrology and infrastructure of the water utility, the underestimation of extreme climate changes substantially alters the quantification of risk for water supply shortages by mid-century. We argue that progress in climate change adaptation for local systems requires the recognition that there is less information in multi-model climate ensembles than previously thought. Importantly, adaptation decisions cannot be limited to the spread in one generation of climate models.

Household behaviour crowds out support for climate change policy when sufficient progress is perceived

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werfel, Seth H.

2017-07-01

Household actions and government policies are both necessary to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, household behaviour may crowd out public support for government action by creating the perception of sufficient progress. Here we demonstrate this crowding-out effect in public opinion using survey experiments with more than 14,000 participants in Japan. Subjects who were randomly assigned to report their energy-saving actions following the shutdown of the Fukushima power plant were less likely to support a tax increase on carbon emissions. Treatment effects were larger for subjects who had completed more actions. Further evidence suggests that the crowding-out effect may have been driven by an increase in the perceived importance of individual actions relative to government regulation and a decrease in the perceived issue importance of energy and environmental sustainability.

Health benefits of a low carbon economy.

PubMed

Haines, A

2012-09-01

This article summarizes a presentation given at 'Health and Well-being: the 21st Century Agenda', which focused on the potential to make progress by making appropriate connections between activity to promote health and respond to the threat of climate change. It argues that a transition to a low carbon economy would bring together two of our greatest public health challenges, supporting action to improve public health within resource constraints and action to avert climate change as far as possible. Deep cuts in emissions are needed to prevent dangerous consequences arising from climate change. In addition, many of the policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will, in themselves, have beneficial effects on public health. This article provides an overview of several modelling studies which demonstrate that well-designed initiatives that curb greenhouse gas emissions in energy, residential construction, urban transport and agricultural systems can enhance global public health, including improving health among poor populations. Some of these health co-benefits can be achieved in a relatively short time frame, and they can help offset the costs of climate change mitigation policies. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward a categorical drought prediction system based on U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and climate forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, Zengchao; Xia, Youlong; Luo, Lifeng; Singh, Vijay P.; Ouyang, Wei; Hao, Fanghua

2017-08-01

Disastrous impacts of recent drought events around the world have led to extensive efforts in drought monitoring and prediction. Various drought information systems have been developed with different indicators to provide early drought warning. The climate forecast from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) has been among the most salient progress in climate prediction and its application for drought prediction has been considerably growing. Since its development in 1999, the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) has played a critical role in drought monitoring with different drought categories to characterize drought severity, which has been employed to aid decision making by a wealth of users such as natural resource managers and authorities. Due to wide applications of USDM, the development of drought prediction with USDM drought categories would greatly aid decision making. This study presented a categorical drought prediction system for predicting USDM drought categories in the U.S., based on the initial conditions from USDM and seasonal climate forecasts from NMME. Results of USDM drought categories predictions in the U.S. demonstrate the potential of the prediction system, which is expected to contribute to operational early drought warning in the U.S.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

2016-03-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, D.; Vigneault, H.; Lefebvre, R.; Savard, M. M.; Ballard, J.-M.; Qian, B.

2015-08-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentrations could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. Climate change alone (practices maintained at their current level) would contribute only 0 to 6 % to that increase according to the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

[Effects of climate change on forest soil organic carbon storage: a review].

PubMed

Zhou, Xiao-yu; Zhang, Cheng-yi; Guo, Guang-fen

2010-07-01

Forest soil organic carbon is an important component of global carbon cycle, and the changes of its accumulation and decomposition directly affect terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and global carbon balance. Climate change would affect the photosynthesis of forest vegetation and the decomposition and transformation of forest soil organic carbon, and further, affect the storage and dynamics of organic carbon in forest soils. Temperature, precipitation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and other climatic factors all have important influences on the forest soil organic carbon storage. Understanding the effects of climate change on this storage is helpful to the scientific management of forest carbon sink, and to the feasible options for climate change mitigation. This paper summarized the research progress about the distribution of organic carbon storage in forest soils, and the effects of elevated temperature, precipitation change, and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration on this storage, with the further research subjects discussed.

Evidence for long-term climate change in Upper Devonian strata of the central Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brezinski, D.K.; Cecil, C.B.; Skema, V.W.; Kertis, C.A.

2009-01-01

The highest 1 to 200 m of the Upper Devonian (Famennian) Catskill and equivalent Hampshire formations exhibit a noticeable vertical or stratigraphic change in color and a shift in lithologic character. The lower part of the unit is characterized by typically red, channel-phase sandstones and overbank siltstone and mudstone containing thin calcareous paleosols. These lithologies give way to greenish gray sandstone containing abundant coaly plant fragments, coalified logs, and pyrite, interbedded with thick intervals of non-calcareous paleo-vertisols. The increase in the prominence of preserved terrestrial organic matter suggests that there was a corresponding increase in the abundance of plants in terrestrial ecosystems. The stratigraphic change in lithology within the upper part of the Catskill-Hampshire succession suggests the onset of environmental conditions that became increasingly wet in response to elevated humid climatic conditions during the final stages of Catskill alluvial plain deposition. The sedimentological signature suggesting increased climatic wetness within the uppermost Catskill and Hampshire formations is nearly contemporaneous with the initiation of Late Devonian Gondwanan glaciation in the paleo-high-latitudes. The Appalachian climate record indicates that this change began during the Fa2c and continued through the latest Famennian, reaching its peak during the Fa2d when glacial deposits are recorded in the paleo-mid-latitudes of the Appalachian basin. Evidence of this late Famennian increase in precipitation also is recorded in the adjacent marine environments. Equivalent-age marine units in Ohio and Kentucky record progressive increases in both total organic carbon and the percentage of terrestrially-derived organic carbon. This suggests that there was a late Famennian increase in terrestrial organic matter productivity, and that during the late Famennian, there were elevated levels of runoff produced by the interpreted increase in precipitation that washed progressively higher amounts of terrestrial organic matter into the local marine environments. The late Famennian climate changes identified within the Appalachian basin strata have been recognizable globally, and appear to have had both positive and negative effects on the Earth's biota. Some marine groups exhibit sharp diversity drops or even extinction coincident with the maximum development of the late Famennian ice age. Conversely, terrestrial biota appears to have been more positively affected by the late Famennian increased wetness that accompanied this progressive climate change. Marked diversification and evolutionary innovation, which appear to coincide with this climatic deviation, can be recognized within terrestrial plant communities and early tetrapod amphibians. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change.

PubMed

Hanna, Edward; Navarro, Francisco J; Pattyn, Frank; Domingues, Catia M; Fettweis, Xavier; Ivins, Erik R; Nicholls, Robert J; Ritz, Catherine; Smith, Ben; Tulaczyk, Slawek; Whitehouse, Pippa L; Zwally, H Jay

2013-06-06

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koontz, A.; Sivaraman, C.

2016-10-01

The purpose of this report is to provide a concise status update for ingests maintained by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. The report is divided into the following sections: (1) new ingests for which development has begun, (2) progress on existing ingests, (3) future ingests that have been recently approved, (4) other work that leads to an ingest, and (5) top requested ingests from the ARM Data Archive. New information is highlighted in blue text.

ARM Climate Research Facility Quarterly Ingest Status Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koontz, A.; Sivaraman, C.

2016-07-01

The purpose of this report is to provide a concise status update for ingests maintained by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. The report is divided into the following sections: (1) new ingests for which development has begun, (2) progress on existing ingests, (3) future ingests that have been recently approved, (4) other work that leads to an ingest, and (5) top requested ingests from the ARM Data Archive. New information is highlighted in blue text.

Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, Daniel H.

2015-02-01

Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

A progressively wetter climate in southern East Africa over the past 1.3 million years.

PubMed

Johnson, T C; Werne, J P; Brown, E T; Abbott, A; Berke, M; Steinman, B A; Halbur, J; Contreras, S; Grosshuesch, S; Deino, A; Scholz, C A; Lyons, R P; Schouten, S; Damsté, J S Sinninghe

2016-09-08

African climate is generally considered to have evolved towards progressively drier conditions over the past few million years, with increased variability as glacial-interglacial change intensified worldwide. Palaeoclimate records derived mainly from northern Africa exhibit a 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycle overprinted on a pronounced 20,000-year (precession) beat, driven by orbital forcing of summer insolation, global ice volume and long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we present a 1.3-million-year-long climate history from the Lake Malawi basin (10°-14° S in eastern Africa), which displays strong 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycles of temperature and rainfall following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition around 900,000 years ago. Interglacial periods were relatively warm and moist, while ice ages were cool and dry. The Malawi record shows limited evidence for precessional variability, which we attribute to the opposing effects of austral summer insolation and the temporal/spatial pattern of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. The temperature history of the Malawi basin, at least for the past 500,000 years, strongly resembles past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrigenous dust flux in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but not in global ice volume. Climate in this sector of eastern Africa (unlike northern Africa) evolved from a predominantly arid environment with high-frequency variability to generally wetter conditions with more prolonged wet and dry intervals.

Estimation of the possible influence of future climate changes on biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noda, H. M.; Nishina, K.; Ito, A.

2015-12-01

In recent decades, climate change has progressed worldwide and their influences on ecosystem structure and function that provide various goods and services to humans' well-being are of the greatest concerns. The ecosystem function and services are tightly coupled with the biodiversity, particularly via food web and biogeochemical cycles and here carbon is one of the central elements. The photosynthetic carbon fixation by plants, which forms the basis of the food web, is known to be highly sensitive to meteorological changes including radiation, temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentration. Thus an analysis of the effect of future climate change on the carbon cycle processes including photosynthetic production in a biogeographical region, which is important from the viewpoint of the biodiversity conservation, such as "biodiversity hotspot", might enable us to discuss the relevance between climate change and biodiversity.In ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) phase 1, we have estimated NPP (net primary production), plant biomass and soil organic carbon by seven global biome models under climate conditions from 1901 to 2100 based on four RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways for 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W m-2 stabilization targets) and five global climate models. In the present study, we analyzed these outputs to reveal the effects of changes on NPP, plant biomass and soil organic carbon in 20 biodiversity hotspots in various climatic regions. Although NPP of whole world tended to increase under RCP 8.5 W m-2 scenario, some biome models have shown that NPP of the hotspots in tropical regions decrease.

Measurement equivalence of patient safety climate in Chinese hospitals: can we compare across physicians and nurses?

PubMed

Zhu, Junya

2018-06-11

Self-report instruments have been widely used to better understand variations in patient safety climate between physicians and nurses. Research is needed to determine whether differences in patient safety climate reflect true differences in the underlying concepts. This is known as measurement equivalence, which is a prerequisite for meaningful group comparisons. This study aims to examine the degree of measurement equivalence of the responses to a patient safety climate survey of Chinese hospitals and to demonstrate how the measurement equivalence method can be applied to self-report climate surveys for patient safety research. Using data from the Chinese Hospital Survey of Patient Safety Climate from six Chinese hospitals in 2011, we constructed two groups: physicians and nurses (346 per group). We used multiple-group confirmatory factor analyses to examine progressively more stringent restrictions for measurement equivalence. We identified weak factorial equivalence across the two groups. Strong factorial equivalence was found for Organizational Learning, Unit Management Support for Safety, Adequacy of Safety Arrangements, Institutional Commitment to Safety, Error Reporting and Teamwork. Strong factorial equivalence, however, was not found for Safety System, Communication and Peer Support and Staffing. Nevertheless, further analyses suggested that nonequivalence did not meaningfully affect the conclusions regarding physician-nurse differences in patient safety climate. Our results provide evidence of at least partial equivalence of the survey responses between nurses and physicians, supporting mean comparisons of its constructs between the two groups. The measurement equivalence approach is essential to ensure that conclusions about group differences are valid.

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid-adapted marsupial mice, the Sminthopsini.

PubMed

García-Navas, Vicente; Westerman, Michael

2018-05-28

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Development of the ECOSAR P-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rincon, R. F.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Ranson, K. J.; Sun, G.; Deshpande, M.; Hale, R. D.; Bhat, A.; Perrine, M.; DuToit, C. F.; Bonds, Q.;

Local Government Capacity to Respond to Environmental Change: Insights from Towns in New York State.

PubMed

Larson, Lincoln R; Lauber, T Bruce; Kay, David L; Cutts, Bethany B

2017-07-01

Local governments attempting to respond to environmental change face an array of challenges. To better understand policy responses and factors influencing local government capacity to respond to environmental change, we studied three environmental issues affecting rural or peri-urban towns in different regions of New York State: climate change in the Adirondacks (n = 63 towns), loss of open space due to residential/commercial development in the Hudson Valley (n = 50), and natural gas development in the Southern Tier (n = 62). Our analysis focused on towns' progression through three key stages of the environmental policy process (issue awareness and salience, common goals and agenda setting, policy development and implementation) and the factors that affect this progression and overall capacity for environmental governance. We found that-when compared to towns addressing open space development and natural gas development-towns confronted with climate change were at a much earlier stage in the policy process and were generally less likely to display the essential resources, social support, and political legitimacy needed for an effective policy response. Social capital cultivated through collaboration and networking was strongly associated with towns' policy response across all regions and could help municipalities overcome omnipresent resource constraints. By comparing and contrasting municipal responses to each issue, this study highlights the processes and factors influencing local government capacity to address a range of environmental changes across diverse management contexts.

Equitable science education in urban middle schools: Do reform efforts make a difference?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewson, Peter W.; Butler Kahle, Jane; Scantlebury, Kathryn; Davies, Darleen

2001-12-01

A central commitment of current reforms in science education is that all students, regardless of culture, gender, race, and/ or socioeconomic status, are capable of understanding and doing science. The study Bridging the Gap: Equity in Systemic Reform assessed equity in systemic reform using a nested research design that drew on both qualitative and quantitative methodologies. As part of the study, case studies were conducted in two urban middle schools in large Ohio cities. The purpose of the case studies was to identify factors affecting equity in urban science education reform. Data were analyzed using Kahle's (1998) equity metric. That model allowed us to assess progress toward equity using a range of research-based indicators grouped into three categories critical for equitable education: access to, retention in, and achievement in quality science education. In addition, a fourth category was defined for systemic indicators of equity. Analyses indicated that the culture and climate of the case study schools differentially affected their progress toward equitable reform in science education.

Mainstreaming biodiversity and wildlife management into climate change policy frameworks in selected east and southern African countries

PubMed Central

Nhamo, Godwell

2016-01-01

The Rio+20 outcomes document, the Future We Want, enshrines green economy as one of the platforms to attain sustainable development and calls for measures that seek to address climate change and biodiversity management. This paper audits climate change policies from selected east and southern African countries to determine the extent to which climate change legislation mainstreams biodiversity and wildlife management. A scan of international, continental, regional and national climate change policies was conducted to assess whether they include biodiversity and/or wildlife management issues. The key finding is that many climate change policy–related documents, particularly the National Adaptation Programme of Actions (NAPAs), address threats to biodiversity and wildlife resources. However, international policies like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol do not address the matter under deliberation. Regional climate change policies such as the East African Community, Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and African Union address biodiversity and/or wildlife issues whilst the Southern African Development Community region does not have a stand-alone policy for climate change. Progressive countries like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia have recently put in place detailed NAPAs which are mainstream responsive strategies intended to address climate change adaptation in the wildlife sector.

Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Influence of Climate Variability on US Regional Homicide Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harp, R. D.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have found consistent evidence of a relationship between temperature and criminal behavior. However, despite agreement in the overall relationship, little progress has been made in distinguishing between two proposed explanatory theories. The General Affective Aggression Model (GAAM) suggests that high temperatures create periods of higher heat stress that enhance individual aggressiveness, whereas the Routine Activities Theory (RAT) theorizes that individuals are more likely to be outdoors interacting with others during periods of pleasant weather with a resulting increase in both interpersonal interactions and victim availability. Further, few studies have considered this relationship within the context of climate change in a quantitative manner. In an effort to distinguish between the two theories, and to examine the statistical relationships on a broader spatial scale than previously, we combined data from the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR—compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation) and the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR—compiled by the National Centers for Environmental Protection, a branch of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). US homicide data described by the SHR was compared with seven relevant observed climate variables (temperature, dew point, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, accumulated snowfall, snow cover, and snow depth) provided by the NARR atmospheric reanalysis. Relationships between homicide rates and climate variables, as well as reveal regional spatial patterns will be presented and discussed, along with the implications due to future climate change. This research lays the groundwork for the refinement of estimates of an oft-overlooked climate change impact, which has previously been estimated to cause an additional 22,000 murders between 2010 and 2099, including providing important constraints for empirical models of future violent crime incidences in the face of global warming.

Attributing impacts to emissions traced to major fossil energy and cement producers over specific historical time periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekwurzel, B.; Frumhoff, P. C.; Allen, M. R.; Boneham, J.; Heede, R.; Dalton, M. W.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Given the progress in climate change attribution research over the last decade, attribution studies can inform policymakers guided by the UNFCCC principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." Historically this has primarily focused on nations, yet requests for information on the relative role of the fossil energy sector are growing. We present an approach that relies on annual CH4 and CO2 emissions from production through to the sale of products from the largest industrial fossil fuel and cement production company records from the mid-nineteenth century to present (Heede 2014). Analysis of the global trends with all the natural and human drivers compared with a scenario without the emissions traced to major carbon producers over full historical versus select periods of recent history can be policy relevant. This approach can be applied with simple climate models and earth system models depending on the type of climate impacts being investigated. For example, results from a simple climate model, using best estimate parameters and emissions traced to 90 largest carbon producers, illustrate the relative difference in global mean surface temperature increase over 1880-2010 after removing these emissions from 1980-2010 (29-35%) compared with removing these emissions over 1880-2010 (42-50%). The changing relative contributions from the largest climate drivers can be important to help assess the changing risks for stakeholders adapting to and reducing exposure and vulnerability to regional climate change impacts.

Land Use, Climate, and Water Resources-Global Stages of Interaction.

PubMed

Kaushal, Sujay S; Gold, Arthur J; Mayer, Paul M

2017-10-24

Land use and climate change can accelerate the depletion of freshwater resources that support humans and ecosystem services on a global scale. Here, we briefly review studies from around the world, and highlight those in this special issue. We identify stages that characterize increasing interaction between land use and climate change. During the first stage, hydrologic modifications and the built environment amplify overland flow via processes associated with runoff-dominated ecosystems (e.g., soil compaction, impervious surface cover, drainage, and channelization). During the second stage, changes in water storage impact the capacity of ecosystems to buffer extremes in water quantity and quality (e.g., either losses in snowpack, wetlands, and groundwater recharge or gains in water and nutrient storage behind dams in reservoirs). During the third stage, extremes in water quantity and quality contribute to losses in ecosystem services and water security (e.g., clean drinking water, flood mitigation, and habitat availability). During the final stage, management and restoration strategies attempt to regain lost ecosystem structure, function, and services but need to adapt to climate change. By anticipating the increasing interaction between land use and climate change, intervention points can be identified, and management strategies can be adjusted to improve outcomes for realistic expectations. Overall, global water security cannot be adequately restored without considering an increasing interaction between land use and climate change across progressive stages and our ever-increasing human domination of the water cycle from degradation to ecosystem restoration.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Validation of Suggestion-Induced Stress

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-10-01

Long-term Environment Foreign climate, geography, culture Diet / hunger Fatigue- -loss of sleep, exertion Isolation Crowding Perceived threat... neuropsychological theory of age regression and progression. In M.V. Kline (Ed..), Clinical correlations of experiment.al l~ypnosis. Springfield

Climate Leadership webinar on Greenhouse Gas Management Resources for Small Businesses

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Small businesses can calculate their carbon footprint and construct a greenhouse gas inventory to help track progress towards reaching emissions reduction goals. One strategy for this is EPA's Simplified GHG Emissions Calculator.

The Race To Understand A Changing Planet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, Piers J.

2012-01-01

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earth's - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilitie's to guide them into the future.

The race to understand a changing planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellers, P. J.

2012-12-01

The Earth's climate is changing rapidly. In some respects, the rate of change is outpacing the predictions of only a few years ago. The challenge to Earth Science is to put forward credible projections of possible future climates so that the public and policy makers can make science-based decisions about energy development strategies. Models, observations and experiments all play strong roles in improving knowledge and increasing confidence in our predictions. The models have progressed from simple, coarse-resolution descriptions of atmospheric dynamics and physics only twenty years ago, to full-up Earth System models (ESMs) that include complete descriptions of the oceans and cryosphere. It has been convincingly argued that such complexity - the construction of realistic "toy" Earths - is necessary to address the complex processes involved in climate change, including not only the physical atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, but also the carbon cycle - both its natural and anthropogenic components - and the biosphere. Observations, particularly satellite observations, have more or less kept pace with the demands of the modelers, being able to observe progressively more and different facets of the Earth system, but the global satellite fleet is in need of an overhaul very soon. Lastly, field experiments and process studies confront the models with facts and allow us to develop more sophisticated and accurate satellite data algorithms. The challenges facing our relatively small Earth and planetary science communities are considerable and the stakes are significant. The stakeholders, now numbering 7 billion but soon to be 10 billion, will be relying on our results and capabilities to guide them into the future.

Climate and vegetation change during the Holocene in southern Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; Ramos Román, M. J.; García-Alix, A.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J. J.; Hernández-Corbalán, M. D.; Toney, J. L.; Mesa-Fernández, J. M.; Camuera-Bidaurreta, J.; Carrión, J. S.

2015-12-01

Detailed pollen analysis has been carried out on several sediment cores taken from high-elevation alpine lakes and bog areas located in Sierra Nevada and coastal and offshore environments from southern Spain. The earliest part of the record, from 8200 to about 7000 cal yr BP, is characterized by the highest abundance of arboreal pollen and Pediastrum, indicating the warmest and wettest conditions in the area at that time. The pollen records show a progressive aridification trend since 7000 cal yr BP through a decrease in forest species and the increase in xerophytes. The progressive aridification is punctuated by millennial-scale periodically enhanced droughts that coincide in timing and duration with well-known arid events in the Mediterranean and other areas. A relatively humid period occurred during the Roman Humid Period. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (900-1300 AD) was characterized by a wet phase at first, coinciding with a solar minimum, and a later arid phase, coinciding with the Medieval solar Maximum and a positive NAO. The Little Ice Age (1300-1850 AD) was markedly wetter than earlier, as shown by the increase in tree pollen, coinciding with a phase of negative NAO and the Maunder solar minimum. This study shows that vegetation and climate in Western Mediterranean are modulated by solar and atmospheric factors. Several vegetation changes are observed in the last centuries, which probably indicate the high-impact of humans in the Sierra Nevada, with pasturing leading to nutrient enrichment and eutrophication of the wetlands, Olea cultivation at lower elevations and Pinus reforestation.

How can crop intra-specific biodiversity mitigate the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change? A case study on durum wheat in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca

2014-05-01

Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

2014-12-01

To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

Continuation of the NVAP Global Water Vapor Data Sets for Pathfinder Science Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VonderHaar, Thomas H.; Engelen, Richard J.; Forsythe, John M.; Randel, David L.; Ruston, Benjamin C.; Woo, Shannon; Dodge, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

This annual report covers August 2000 - August 2001 under NASA contract NASW-0032, entitled "Continuation of the NVAP (NASA's Water Vapor Project) Global Water Vapor Data Sets for Pathfinder Science Analysis". NASA has created a list of Earth Science Research Questions which are outlined by Asrar, et al. Particularly relevant to NVAP are the following questions: (a) How are global precipitation, evaporation, and the cycling of water changing? (b) What trends in atmospheric constituents and solar radiation are driving global climate? (c) How well can long-term climatic trends be assessed or predicted? Water vapor is a key greenhouse gas, and an understanding of its behavior is essential in global climate studies. Therefore, NVAP plays a key role in addressing the above climate questions by creating a long-term global water vapor dataset and by updating the dataset with recent advances in satellite instrumentation. The NVAP dataset produced from 1988-1998 has found wide use in the scientific community. Studies of interannual variability are particularly important. A recent paper by Simpson, et al. that examined the NVAP dataset in detail has shown that its relative accuracy is sufficient for the variability studies that contribute toward meeting NASA's goals. In the past year, we have made steady progress towards continuing production of this high-quality dataset as well as performing our own investigations of the data. This report summarizes the past year's work on production of the NVAP dataset and presents results of analyses we have performed in the past year.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

When will we reach 1.5 of global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.

2017-12-01

Recent global temperature trends indicate that we may be rapidly approaching 1.5 degrees of global warming. However, rigorous estimates of when this target will be breached are rare, and are highly sensitive to small errors in observed and model-simulated historical warming, as well as widely-varying estimates of the allowable emissions for 1.5°C. Here, I present a proposed method to estimate the time remaining to 1.5°C using a new estimate of human-attributable warming, updated CO2 emissions trends, and the latest estimates of the 1.5°C carbon budget. The resulting calculation suggests that a continuation of recent CO2 emission trends would take us past 1.5°C in 2033, a little less than 16 years from now. Uncertainties in this calculation remain large, reflecting both fundamental scientific uncertainties associated with the climate response to emissions, as well as uncertainties associated with human mitigation decisions and their effect on future CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is nevertheless important to provide a robust and widely-accepted best estimate of the time remaining before we breach the climate targets that have been adopted in the Paris climate agreement, so as to clearly communicate our scientific understanding to policy makers and the general public. To this end, in an effort to visualize and track our progress towards these target, we have develop an online and projectable climate clock, which shows a real-time countdown of the time remaining to 1.5 and 2°C of global warming (see www.climateclock.net). This clock will be updated annually in light of the most recent emissions and global temperature data, and accounting for improved estimates of the remaining carbon budget associated with these climate targets. As countries around the world move forward with climate mitigation efforts, this climate clock will be able to clearly mark our progress towards the objective of adding time to the countdown so as to ultimately avoid breaching these dangerous climate thresholds.

Food and Nutrition Security Trends, Determinants and Challenges in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsen, K.; van Soesbergen, A.; Matthews, Z.; Burgess, N.

2016-12-01

In the last 20 years many developing countries have made considerable progress towards improving food security and nutrition. However, progress across countries and dimensions of food security have been uneven. While challenges to food security in the context of environmental and climate changes have been studied widely, limited evidence exists for their implications for food and nutrition security in tropical deltaic regions. Delta areas are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity and malnutrition due the specific environmental, climatic and human development factors affecting agricultural production and fisheries. These include coastal flooding and storm surges, deforestation, changes to river flow patterns and water tables, increased soil salinity and water quality degradation. Due to the large number of people living in deltaic regions and their importance in regional food production, there is a pressing need for a better understanding on how environmental factors affect food security and malnutrition. This study explores the potential impacts and challenges posed by environmental and climate change on food and nutrition security in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. This delta is one of the world's largest delta's draining land from Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal. The delta makes up around two thirds of the country of Bangladesh, a country facing high levels of child undernutrition, child mortality and a high number of people living under extreme poverty. By combining spatially explicit data from the 2007 and 2011 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Bangladesh with satellite remote sensing data (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index) for relevant growing seasons of rice, the strength of association between this climate related environmental variable and indicators of child nutrition (wasting and stunting) in the delta were evaluated. Our results show that NDVI for the growing season of rice can be used to determine trends in rice production, picking up on environmental shocks (e.g. floods and cyclones) in the period 2002-2011. Furthermore, we show that NDVI can be used to explain impacts on child nutrition in this delta, even when controlling for background variables such as household wealth, geography and mother's health and education.

Genetic progress in sunflower crop in Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil.

PubMed

Follmann, D N; Cargnelutti Filho, A; Lorentz, L H; Boligon, A A; Caraffa, M; Wartha, C A

2017-04-13

The sunflower has adaptability to growing regions with different climatic and soil characteristics, showing drought tolerance and high-quality oil production. The State of Rio Grande do Sul is the third largest sunflower producer in Brazil, with research related to the sunflower breeding initiated after the decade of 1950. The aim of this study was to evaluate the genetic progress for grain yield, oil content, and oil yield of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Data of grain yield, oil content, and oil yield obtained from 58 sunflower cultivar yield trials in 19 municipalities in Rio Grande do Sul during the period from 2005 to 2014 were used. Genetic progress was studied according to the methodology proposed by Vencovsky and data from sunflower cultivar yield trials were used. Annual genetic progress of sunflower during the period of 10 years (2005-2014) was 132.46 kg⋅ha -1 ⋅year -1 for grain yield, -0.17%/year for oil content, and 48.11 kg⋅ha -1 ⋅year -1 for oil yield. The sunflower-breeding programs in the State of Rio Grande do Sul were efficient for the traits grain yield and oil yield and presented no efficiency for oil content.

Review and synthesis: Changing permafrost in a warming world and feedbacks to the Earth System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grosse, Guido; Goetz, Scott; McGuire, A. David; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.; Schuur, Edward A.G.

2016-01-01

The permafrost component of the cryosphere is changing dramatically, but the permafrost region is not well monitored and the consequences of change are not well understood. Changing permafrost interacts with ecosystems and climate on various spatial and temporal scales. The feedbacks resulting from these interactions range from local impacts on topography, hydrology, and biology to complex influences on global scale biogeochemical cycling. This review contributes to this focus issue by synthesizing its 28 multidisciplinary studies which provide field evidence, remote sensing observations, and modeling results on various scales. We synthesize study results from a diverse range of permafrost landscapes and ecosystems by reporting key observations and modeling outcomes for permafrost thaw dynamics, identifying feedbacks between permafrost and ecosystem processes, and highlighting biogeochemical feedbacks from permafrost thaw. We complete our synthesis by discussing the progress made, stressing remaining challenges and knowledge gaps, and providing an outlook on future needs and research opportunities in the study of permafrost–ecosystem–climate interactions.

Understanding processes affecting mineral deposits in humid environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seal, Robert R.; Ayuso, Robert A.

2011-01-01

Recent interdisciplinary studies by the U.S. Geological Survey have resulted in substantial progress toward understanding the influence that climate and hydrology have on the geochemical signatures of mineral deposits and the resulting mine wastes in the eastern United States. Specific areas of focus include the release, transport, and fate of acid, metals, and associated elements from inactive mines in temperate coastal areas and of metals from unmined mineral deposits in tropical to subtropical areas; the influence of climate, geology, and hydrology on remediation options for abandoned mines; and the application of radiogenic isotopes to uniquely apportion source contributions that distinguish natural from mining sources and extent of metal transport. The environmental effects of abandoned mines and unmined mineral deposits result from a complex interaction of a variety of chemical and physical factors. These include the geology of the mineral deposit, the hydrologic setting of the mineral deposit and associated mine wastes, the chemistry of waters interacting with the deposit and associated waste material, the engineering of a mine as it relates to the reactivity of mine wastes, and climate, which affects such factors as temperature and the amounts of precipitation and evapotranspiration; these factors, in turn, influence the environmental behavior of mineral deposits. The role of climate is becoming increasingly important in environmental investigations of mineral deposits because of the growing concerns about climate change.

Linguistic diversity as sociodemographic predictor of nursing program progression and completion.

PubMed

Salamonson, Yenna; Andrew, Sharon; Clauson, Jennifer; Cleary, Michelle; Jackson, Debra; Jacobs, Sharon

2011-01-01

Attrition from undergraduate nursing programs continues to warrant investigation particularly in the climate of nursing shortages and fiscal reflection on academic institutional programs. This three-year study used a prospective longitudinal survey design to determine entry characteristics of students, attrition, progression and completion in an undergraduate program. Students were surveyed in the first three weeks of commencing their program and gave permission for academic grades to be collected during their six session, three year Bachelor of Nursing program. Of the 740 students enrolled 48% (357 students) were surveyed and 352 students (99%) gave consent for their grades to be collected. One-third of the student cohort graduated in the expected three-year timeframe, one-third had dropped out and one-third was still completing their studies. A higher Grade Point Average and being a native English speaker were most predictive of students completing their course in the minimum expected timeframe.

The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Progress and Next Steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reidmiller, D.; Lewis, K.; Reeves, K.

2017-12-01

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandates the production of a quadrennial National Climate Assessment (NCA) that integrates, evaluates, and interprets global change science. The NCA analyzes observed and projected trends in global change and evaluates related impacts across a range of sectors and regions in the United States. The fourth assessment, NCA4, is currently under development by nearly 300 Federal and non-Federal experts and is expected to be available for public comment in Fall 2017 and released in late 2018. NCA4 is a key component of the US Global Change Research Program's Sustained Assessment process, which aims to advance the science of global change and provide authoritative, relevant information for decision makers. This talk will highlight the progress of NCA4, including an overview of the current draft of the assessment and advances since the third NCA, released in 2014. It will highlight the Climate Science Special Report, an essential component of NCA4, as well as provide insight into the public engagement process-including opportunities to participate-and identify scientific inputs and tools critical to its development, such as the 2nd State of the Carbon Cycle Report and USGCRP's new scenario products website.

HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

2012-04-01

Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both Global and Regional Circulation Models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem bias correction (BC), i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post processing step for its subsequent application in climate change impact studies has now become a standard procedure. In this paper we argue that bias correction, which has a considerable influence on the results of impact studies, is not a valid procedure in the way it is currently used: it impairs the advantages of Circulation Models which are based on established physical laws by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Bias correction largely neglects feedback mechanisms and it is unclear whether bias correction methods are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying bias correction increases agreement of Climate Model output with observations in hind casts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this masks rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of Circulation Models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future Global and Regional Circulation Model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with ensemble predictions based on sophisticated approaches for ensemble perturbation. With this article, we advocate communicating the entire uncertainty range associated with climate change predictions openly and hope to stimulate a lively discussion on bias correction among the atmospheric and hydrological community and end users of climate change impact studies.

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Busalaacchi, Antonio J.

1998-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL- FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few shiptracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

The creation of reasonable projections toward sustainable development considering the climate and socioeconomic changes in the Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Iida, A.; Nakatani, J.; Noda, K.; Take, M.; Nakamura, S.

2015-12-01

The impacts of climate and socioeconomic change in the future are important factors to consider when discussing the issues of sustainable development in the Pacific Islands, since their impacts here are relatively large compared to those in other regions due to the severe limitation of internal resources and the external dependency of the life essentials. The tourism industry is the key driving force behind the economic growth in island region and it is promoted by the environmental attractions. This study constructs scenarios that foresees the effects of these changes and assesses the subsequent impact on both the local community and the tourism industry. In this study, the scenarios have been developed based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The progress of climate change was expected to affect the attraction of tourists as well as resources availability and food production. The difference of SSPs was expected to affect the quality of life in the local society and the quantity and/or the quality of tourism. A downscale and bias-correction using a local dataset was applied to assess the impacts of climate change, and the relationships between GDP, population, and estimated land availability in the current situation were applied to assess the impact of socioeconomic change. As case studies, the scenarios were constructed to assess the impacts in the Republic of Palau and Ishigaki Island, Japan. Both are typical islands where tourism is the main industry. The situation of environmental resources, local society, and tourism under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions was assessed using these scenarios. The creation of reasonable projections under appropriate scenarios can contribute to sustainable development not only in these islands but also in most Pacific Islands.

Advances in Understanding Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1999-01-01

Recently, a joint Brazil-France-U.S. program, known as PIRATA (Pilot Research moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic), was proposed to begin the deployment of moored measurement platforms in the tropical Atlantic in order to enhance the existing observational data base and subsequent understanding of the processes by which the ocean and atmosphere couple in key regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Empirical studies have suggested that there are strong relationships between tropical Atlantic upper ocean variability, SST, ocean-atmosphere coupling and regional climate variability. During the early 1980's a coordinated set of surface wind, subsurface thermal structure, and subsurface current observations were obtained as part of the U.S.-France SEQUAL-FOCAL process experiment designed to observe the seasonal response of the tropical Atlantic Ocean to surface forcing. Since that time, however, the observational data base for the tropical Atlantic Ocean has disintegrated to a few ship-tracks measuring ocean temperatures and a small collection of tide gauge stations measuring sea level. A more comprehensive set of observations, modeling and empirical studies is now in order to make progress on understanding the regional climate variability. The proposed PIRATA program will use mooring platforms similar to the tropical Pacific Ocean TAO array to measure surface fluxes of momentum and heat and the corresponding changes in the upper ocean thermal structure. It is anticipated that the oceanic data from this monitoring array will also be used in a predictive mode for initialization studies of regional coupled climate models. Of particular interest are zonal and meridional modes of ocean-atmosphere variability within the tropical Atlantic basin that have significant impacts on the regional climate of the bordering continents.

Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sweet, W.; Kopp, R.E.; Weaver, C.P.; Obeysekera, J; Horton, Radley M.; Thieler, E. Robert; Zervas, C.

2017-01-01

level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a keytechnical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

SciDAC's Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies Semiannual Progress Report October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2011-04-02

This report summarizes work carried out by the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) from October 1, 2010 through March 31, 2011. It discusses ESG-CET highlights for the reporting period, overall progress, period goals, and collaborations, and lists papers and presentations. To learn more about our project and to find previous reports, please visit the ESG-CET Web sites: http://esg-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ and/or https://wiki.ucar.edu/display/esgcet/Home. This report will be forwarded to managers in the Department of Energy (DOE) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program and the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER), as well as national and international collaborators andmore » stakeholders (e.g., those involved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5); the Community Earth System Model (CESM); the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES); SciDAC II: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science; the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP); the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)), and also to researchers working on a variety of other climate model and observation evaluation activities. The ESG-CET executive committee consists of Dean N. Williams, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Ian Foster, Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); and Don Middleton, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The ESG-CET team is a group of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include eight laboratories and two universities: ANL, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), LLNL, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NCAR, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL)/NOAA, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), and University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute (USC/ISI). All ESG-CET work is accomplished under DOE open-source guidelines and in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders, domain researchers, and scientists. Through the ESG project, the ESG-CET team has developed and delivered a production environment for climate data from multiple climate model sources (e.g., CMIP (IPCC), CESM, ocean model data (e.g., Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (e.g., Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Microwave Limb Sounder), and analysis and visualization tools) that serves a worldwide climate research community. Data holdings are distributed across multiple sites including LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL as well as unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University (ANU) National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), the British Atmospheric Data Center (BADC), the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), the German Climate Computing Centre (DKRZ), and NASA/JPL. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users who want to understand it, process it, extract value from it, visualize it, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort is extremely large and complex, but it will be incredibly valuable for building 'science gateways' to critical climate resources (such as CESM, CMIP5, ARM, NARCCAP, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), etc.) for processing the next IPCC assessment report. Continued ESG progress will result in a production-scale system that will empower scientists to attempt new and exciting data exchanges, which could ultimately lead to breakthrough climate science discoveries.« less

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

NASA Supercomputer Improves Prospects for Ocean Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, D.; Hill, C.; Adcroft, A.; Campin, J. -M.; Cheng, B.; Ciotti, B.; Fukumori, I.; Heimbach, P.; Henze, C.; Kohl, A.;

Steps to overcome the North-South divide in research relevant to climate change policy and practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blicharska, Malgorzata; Smithers, Richard J.; Kuchler, Magdalena; Agrawal, Ganesh K.; Gutiérrez, José M.; Hassanali, Ahmed; Huq, Saleemul; Koller, Silvia H.; Marjit, Sugata; Mshinda, Hassan M.; Masjuki, Hj Hassan; Solomons, Noel W.; Staden, Johannes Van; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2017-01-01

A global North-South divide in research, and its negative consequences, has been highlighted in various scientific disciplines. Northern domination of science relevant to climate change policy and practice, and limited research led by Southern researchers in Southern countries, may hinder further development and implementation of global climate change agreements and nationally appropriate actions. Despite efforts to address the North-South divide, progress has been slow. In this Perspective, we illustrate the extent of the divide, review underlying issues and analyse their consequences for climate change policy development and implementation. We propose a set of practical steps in both Northern and Southern countries that a wide range of actors should take at global, regional and national scales to span the North-South divide, with examples of some actions already being implemented.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Building America Case Study: Cold Climate Foundation Wall Hygrothermal Research Facility, Cloquet, Minnesota (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NorthernSTAR

2014-09-01

This report focuses on the progress made to date and the technical details of the experiment. An overview of the experimental data being collected with some interesting highlights noted thus far is also provided. A full analysis of the experimental data and the drawing of conclusions with regard to the thermal and hygrothermal performance of the retrofit foundation insulation systems tested will only be possible after a full year of data has been collected in 2014.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Calibrating a method for simulated long-term ageing of biochar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohi, Saran; Cross, Andrew

2013-04-01

We recently established a procedure that imposes oxidatiave ageing to biochar and charcoal samples over a short time-frame, that provided carbon mass loss in the range projected for wild-fire charcoal in soil over a period of approximately 100 years. The stability of biochar samples in soil (relative to charcoal) range from 45-98% could be determined repeatably with high precision. Initial tests to understand the kinetics of the accelerated ageing method showed progressive increase in surface O concentration when examined by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) that slowly reached equilibrium. These trends resembled patterns observed in climate-for-time studies elsewhere, on centennial time-frame. We have extended this work to a preliminary direct calibration by matching progressive oxidation achieved in the laboratory to the surface composition of charcoal fragments recovered from the environment after periods of hundred to thousands of years. We have also applied artificial ageing to the same sets of naturally pre-aged charcoal fragments, and to recreated fresh charcoal. In this presentation of the first approach to quantifiably relate a laboratory test for biochar carbon stability to field data covering multiple time scales, we report on both the process and the implications for the stability of carbon stored in biochar under different climates and diverse agro-ecosystems.

Winter survival of microbial contaminants in soil: an in situ verification.

PubMed

Bucci, Antonio; Allocca, Vincenzo; Naclerio, Gino; Capobianco, Giovanni; Divino, Fabio; Fiorillo, Francesco; Celico, Fulvio

2015-01-01

The aim of the research was to evaluate, at site scale, the influence of freezing and freeze/thaw cycles on the survival of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci in soil, in a climate change perspective. Before the winter period and during grazing, viable cells of faecal coliforms and faecal enterococci were detected only in the first 10 cm below ground, while, after the winter period and before the new seasonal grazing, a lower number of viable cells of both faecal indicators was detected only in some of the investigated soil profiles, and within the first 5 cm. Taking into consideration the results of specific investigations, we hypothesise that the non-uniform spatial distribution of grass roots within the studied soil can play an important role in influencing this phenomenon, while several abiotic factors do not play any significant role. Taking into account the local trend in the increase of air temperature, a different distribution of microbial pollution over time is expected in spring waters, in future climate scenarios. The progressive increase in air temperature will cause a progressive decrease in freeze/thaw cycles at higher altitudes, minimising cold shocks on microbial cells, and causing spring water pollution also during winter. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group

2012-04-01

Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online-searchable database that allows users to see what climate services activities are underway in what locations, to gather and analyze information. As part of the knowledge capture system, more than 10 CSP members are currently developing case studies to describe specific climate services activities; in a few cases, this involves in-depth evaluations of the service in question. Finally, the Economics Working Group of the Climate Services Partnership is analyzing previous methods to economically value climate services in hopes of generating knew knowledge regarding the methods are best suited to assessing the benefits associated with various climate services. Other groups are working to develop guidance materials for the development and use of climate information to support decision and policy-making. The Climate Services Partnership is an open, informal network that builds on activities that are already underway and works to create synergies to improve the provision and development for climate services. Its members currently number more than 50 organizations; it seeks new participants and new initiatives.

Progress with lossy compression of data from the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, H.; Baker, A.; Hammerling, D.; Li, S.; Clyne, J.

2017-12-01

Climate models, such as the Community Earth System Model (CESM), generate massive quantities of data, particularly when run at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The burden of storage is further exacerbated by creating large ensembles, generating large numbers of variables, outputting at high frequencies, and duplicating data archives (to protect against disk failures). Applying lossy compression methods to CESM datasets is an attractive means of reducing data storage requirements, but ensuring that the loss of information does not negatively impact science objectives is critical. In particular, test methods are needed to evaluate whether critical features (e.g., extreme values and spatial and temporal gradients) have been preserved and to boost scientists' confidence in the lossy compression process. We will provide an overview on our progress in applying lossy compression to CESM output and describe our unique suite of metric tests that evaluate the impact of information loss. Further, we will describe our processes how to choose an appropriate compression algorithm (and its associated parameters) given the diversity of CESM data (e.g., variables may be constant, smooth, change abruptly, contain missing values, or have large ranges). Traditional compression algorithms, such as those used for images, are not necessarily ideally suited for floating-point climate simulation data, and different methods may have different strengths and be more effective for certain types of variables than others. We will discuss our progress towards our ultimate goal of developing an automated multi-method parallel approach for compression of climate data that both maximizes data reduction and minimizes the impact of data loss on science results.

Using critical evaluation to reappraise plausibility judgments: A critical cognitive component of conceptual change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, D.

2011-12-01

Plausibility judgments-although well represented in conceptual change theories (see, for example, Chi, 2005; diSessa, 1993; Dole & Sinatra, 1998; Posner et al., 1982)-have received little empirical attention until our recent work investigating teachers' and students' understanding of and perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010, 2011). In our first study with undergraduate students, we found that greater plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate accounted for significantly greater understanding of weather and climate distinctions after instruction, even after accounting for students' prior knowledge (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a follow-up study with inservice science and preservice elementary teachers, we showed that anger about the topic of climate change and teaching about climate change was significantly related to implausible perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2011). Results from our recent studies helped to inform our development of a model of the role of plausibility judgments in conceptual change situations. The model applies to situations involving cognitive dissonance, where background knowledge conflicts with an incoming message. In such situations, we define plausibility as a judgment on the relative potential truthfulness of incoming information compared to one's existing mental representations (Rescher, 1976). Students may not consciously think when making plausibility judgments, expending only minimal mental effort in what is referred to as an automatic cognitive process (Stanovich, 2009). However, well-designed instruction could facilitate students' reappraisal of plausibility judgments in more effortful and conscious cognitive processing. Critical evaluation specifically may be one effective method to promote plausibility reappraisal in a classroom setting (Lombardi & Sinatra, in progress). In science education, critical evaluation involves the analysis of how evidentiary data support a hypothesis and its alternatives. The presentation will focus on how instruction promoting critical evaluation can encourage individuals to reappraise their plausibility judgments and initiate knowledge reconstruction. In a recent pilot study, teachers experienced an instructional scaffold promoting critical evaluation of two competing climate change theories (i.e., human-induced and increasing solar irradiance) and significantly changed both their plausibility judgments and perceptions of correctness toward the scientifically-accepted model of human-induced climate change. A comparison group of teachers who did not experience the critical evaluation activity showed no significant change. The implications of these studies for future research and instruction will be discussed in the presentation, including effective ways to increase students' and teachers' ability to be critically evaluative and reappraise their plausibility judgments. With controversial science issues, such as climate change, such abilities may be necessary to facilitate conceptual change.

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

2012-11-01

Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are presented in this NASA/CP and are available to the public at http://spacescience.arc.nasa.gov/mars-climate-workshop-2012/

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions with climate change: progress report, 2008.

PubMed

Andrady, Anthony; Aucamp, Pieter J; Bais, Alkiviadis; Ballaré, Carlos L; Björn, Lars Olof; Bornman, Janet F; Caldwell, Martyn; Cullen, Anthony P; Erickson, David J; de Gruijl, Frank R; Häder, Donat-P; Ilyas, Mohammad; Kulandaivelu, G; Kumar, H D; Longstreth, Janice; McKenzie, Richard L; Norval, Mary; Paul, Nigel; Redhwi, Halim Hamid; Smith, Raymond C; Solomon, Keith R; Sulzberger, Barbara; Takizawa, Yukio; Tang, Xiaoyan; Teramura, Alan H; Torikai, Ayako; van der Leun, Jan C; Wilson, Stephen R; Worrest, Robert C; Zepp, Richard G

2009-01-01

After the enthusiastic celebration of the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer in 2007, the work for the protection of the ozone layer continues. The Environmental Effects Assessment Panel is one of the three expert panels within the Montreal Protocol. This EEAP deals with the increase of the UV irradiance on the Earth's surface and its effects on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality and materials. For the past few years, interactions of ozone depletion with climate change have also been considered. It has become clear that the environmental problems will be long-lasting. In spite of the fact that the worldwide production of ozone depleting chemicals has already been reduced by 95%, the environmental disturbances are expected to persist for about the next half a century, even if the protective work is actively continued, and completed. The latest full report was published in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2007, 6, 201-332, and the last progress report in Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2008, 7, 15-27. The next full report on environmental effects is scheduled for the year 2010. The present progress report 2008 is one of the short interim reports, appearing annually.

Using the USDA Weekly Crop Progress Record to Document Trends in Corn Planting Date From 1979 to 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharik, C. J.

2005-12-01

Agriculture is a dominant driver of land surface phenology in the United States Corn Belt. The timing of planting and harvest, along with the rate of plant development, are influenced by crop type, technology, land management decisions, and weather and soil conditions. Collectively, these integrated factors affect the spatial and temporal spectral signature of crops captured by remote sensing. While many studies have used the historical satellite record of vegetation activity to detect changes across the land surface, there has been less emphasis on using ground-based or remote sensing data to depict the contemporary phenology of individual US agro-ecosystems. The objectives of this study were twofold: (1) demonstrate how weekly USDA-NASS 'Crop Progress' data and 'Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletins' could be useful to remote sensing science when characterizing changing land surface phenology over the US; and (2) quantify long-term trends in corn planting progress from 1979 to 2005 across 12 states in the US Corn Belt. Examination of the weekly NASS crop progress data shows that the initiation of corn planting has become significantly (P < 0.01) earlier by 6 to 24 days since 1979, potentially contributing to about 10% to 64% of the linear increase in corn yields during this period. The magnitude of earlier planting date trend varies regionally, and not all of this change can be attributed to an earlier arrival of spring or warmer springtime temperatures. Rather, the change appears to be related to increased farmer planting efficiency in spring attributed to the increased adoption of no-tillage or reduced-tillage practices and plowing soils in fall. Regardless of the exact cause of this trend, we have a legitimate reason to suspect that 'greening' of the Corn Belt since about 1980, according to remote sensing observations, is not entirely due to climate change, but rather arises from human land-use change in combination with climate factors. In the future, crop progress data may provide an ideal blueprint for selecting the ideal MODIS scene (i.e., 8-day period) that can separate various crop phenologies (e.g., corn vs. soybean) at high resolution, and offer a means to help validate or parameterize ecosystem model algorithms.

A history of the science and politics of climate change: the role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolin, B.

2007-11-15

In response to growing concern about human-induced global climate change, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was formed in 1988. Written by its first Chairman, this book is a unique overview of the history of the IPCC. It describes and evaluates the intricate interplay between key factors in the science and politics of climate change, the strategy that has been followed, and the regretfully slow pace in getting to grips with the uncertainties that have prevented earlier action being taken. The book also highlights the emerging conflict between establishing a sustainable global energy system and preventing a seriousmore » change in global climate. Contents are: Part I. The Early History of the Climate Change Issue: 1. Nineteenth century discoveries; 2. The natural carbon cycle and life on earth; 3. Global research initiatives in meteorology and climatology; 4. Early international assessments of climate change; Part II. The Climate Change Issue Becomes One of Global Concern: 5. Setting the stage; 6. The scientific basis for a climate convention; 7. Serving the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee; 8. The Second IPP Assessment Report; 9. In the aftermath of the IPCC Second Assessment; 10. The Kyoto Protocol is agreed and a third assessment begun; 11. A decade of hesitance and slow progress; Part III. A Turning Point in Addressing Climate Change?: 12. Key scientific finding of prime political relevance; 13. Climate change and the future global energy supply system; Concluding remarks. 9 figs.« less

WILDFIRE-CLIMATE INTERACTIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. (R828732)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Center for Corporate Climate Leadership GHG Inventory Guidance for Low Emitters

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Tools and guidance for low emitters and small businesses to develop an organization-wide GHG inventory and establish a plan to ensure GHG emissions data consistency for tracking progress towards reaching an emissions reduction goal.

Mars at war

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2018-04-01

Whether the climate of early Mars was warm and wet or cold and dry remains unclear, but the debate is overheated. With a growing toolbox and increasing data to tackle the open questions, progress is possible if there is openness to bridging the divide.

Coupling Satellite and Ground-Based Instruments to Map Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Charlson, Robert J.; Anderson, Theodore L.; Hostetler, Chris (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols is a significant but highly uncertain factor in global climate change. Only satellites can offer the global coverage essential to reducing this uncertainty; however, satellite measurements must be coupled with correlative, in situ measurements both to constrain the aerosol optical properties required in satellite retrieval algorithms and to provide chemical identification of aerosol sources. This grant funded the first two years of a three-year project which seeks to develop methodologies for combining spaceborne lidar with in-situ aerosol data sets to improve estimates of direct aerosol climate forcing. Progress under this two-year grant consisted in the development and deployment of a new in-situ capability for measuring aerosol 180' backscatter and the extinction-to-backscatter ratio. This new measurement capacity allows definitive lidar/in-situ comparisons and improves our ability to interpret lidar data in terms of climatically relevant quantities such as the extinction coefficient and optical depth. Measurements were made along the coast of Washington State, in Central Illinois, over the Indian Ocean, and in the Central Pacific. Thus, this research, combined with previous measurements by others, is rapidly building toward a global data set of extinction-to-backscatter ratio for key aerosol types. Such information will be critical to interpreting lidar data from the upcoming PICASSO-CENA, or P-C, satellite mission. Another aspect of this project is to investigate innovative ways to couple the lidar-satellite signal with targeted in-situ measurements toward a direct determination of aerosol forcing. This aspect is progressing in collaboration with NASA Langley's P-C lidar simulator and radiative transfer modeling by the University of Lille, France.

Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Mixed-Humid Climates; January 2006 - December 2006

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Building America Industrialized Housing Partnership; Building Industry Research Alliance; Building Science Consortium

2006-12-01

The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studiesmore » in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in the Mixed-Humid Climate Region on a cost-neutral basis.« less

The Double ITCZ Syndrome in GCMs: A Coupled Problem among Convection, Atmospheric and Ocean Circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, G. J.; Song, X.

2017-12-01

The double ITCZ bias has been a long-standing problem in coupled atmosphere-ocean models. A previous study indicates that uncertainty in the projection of global warming due to doubling of CO2 is closely related to the double ITCZ biases in global climate models. Thus, reducing the double ITCZ biases is not only important to getting the current climate features right, but also important to narrowing the uncertainty in future climate projection. In this work, we will first review the possible factors contributing to the ITCZ problem. Then, we will focus on atmospheric convection, presenting recent progress in alleviating the double ITCZ problem and its sensitivity to details of convective parameterization, including trigger conditions for convection onset, convective memory, entrainment rate, updraft model and closure in the NCAR CESM1. These changes together can result in dramatic improvements in the simulation of ITCZ. Results based on both atmospheric only and coupled simulations with incremental changes of convection scheme will be shown to demonstrate the roles of convection parameterization and coupled interaction between convection, atmospheric circulation and ocean circulation in the simulation of ITCZ.

Clumped isotope calibration data for lacustrine carbonates: A progress report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tripati, A.

2015-12-01

Our capacity to understand Earth's environmental history is highly dependent on the accuracy of reconstructions of past climates. Lake sediments provide important archives of terrestrial climate change, and represent an important tool for reconstructing paleohydrology, paleoclimate, paleoenvironment, and paleoaltimetry. Unfortunately, while multiple methods for constraining marine temperature exist, quantitative terrestrial proxies are scarcer - tree rings, speleothems, and leaf margin analyses have all been used with varying degrees of accuracy. Clumped isotope thermometry has the potential to be a useful instrument for determining terrestrial climates: multiple studies have shown the fraction of 13C—18O bonds in carbonates is inversely related to the temperature at which the rocks formed. We have been measuring the abundance of 13C18O16O in the CO2 produced by the dissolution of carbonate minerals in phosphoric acid in modern lake samples and comparing results to independently known estimates of lake water temperature. Here we discuss an extensive calibration dataset comprised of 132 analyses of 97 samples from 44 localities, including microbialites, tufas, and micrites endogenic carbonates, freshwater gastropods, bivalves, microbialites, and ooids.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Water Demands and Crop Yields in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Young, C. A.; Huntington, J. L.

2012-12-01

Long term planning for the management of California's water resources requires assessment of the effects of future climate changes on both water supply and demand. Considerable progress has been made on the evaluation of the effects of future climate changes on water supplies but less information is available with regard to water demands. Uncertainty in future climate projections increases the difficulty of assessing climate impacts and evaluating long range adaptation strategies. Compounding the uncertainty in the future climate projections is the fact that most readily available downscaled climate projections lack sufficient meteorological information to compute evapotranspiration (ET) by the widely accepted ASCE Penman-Monteith (PM) method. This study addresses potential changes in future Central Valley water demands and crop yields by examining the effects of climate change on soil evaporation, plant transpiration, growth and yield for major types of crops grown in the Central Valley of California. Five representative climate scenarios based on 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP 3 GCM climate simulations were developed using the hybrid delta ensemble method to span a wide range future climate uncertainty. Analysis of historical California Irrigation Management Information System meteorological data was combined with several meteorological estimation methods to compute future solar radiation, wind speed and dew point temperatures corresponding to the GCM projected temperatures and precipitation. Future atmospheric CO2 concentrations corresponding to the 5 representative climate projections were developed based on weighting IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The Land, Atmosphere, and Water Simulator (LAWS) model was used to compute ET and yield changes in the early, middle and late 21st century for 24 representative agricultural crops grown in the Sacramento, San Joaquin and Tulare Lake basins. Study results indicate that changes in ET and yield vary between crops due to plant specific sensitivities to temperature, solar radiation and the vapor pressure deficits. Shifts in the growth period to earlier in the year, shortened growth period for annual crops as well as extended fall growth can also exert important influences. Projected increases in CO2 concentrations in the late 21st century exert very significant influences on ET and yield for many crops. To characterize potential impacts and the range of uncertainty, changes in total agricultural water demands and yields were computed assuming that current crop types and acreages in 21 Central Valley regional planning areas remained constant throughout the 21st century for each of the 5 representative future climate scenarios.

Hurricanes and Climate: the U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walsh, Kevin; Camargo, Suzana J.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Elsner, James; Emanuel, Kerry; Horn, Michael; Lim, Young-Kwon; Roberts, Malcolm; Patricola, Christina;

Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

2017-08-01

Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF THE CLIMATE IMPACT OF SECONDARY ORGANIC AEROSOLS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, D.; Feichter, J.

2009-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth’s climate by absorbing and scattering solar radiation (the direct effect) and by altering the properties of clouds (indirect effects). Measurements have shown that a substantial fraction of the tropospheric aerosol burden consists of organic compounds. Hundreds of different organic species have been identified. While progress has been made in the understanding of the role of certain aerosol types in the climate system, that of organic aerosols remains poorly understood and the climate influences resulting from their presence poorly constrained. Organic aerosols are emitted directly from the surface (primary organic aerosols, POA) and are also formed in the atmosphere from gaseous precursors by oxidation reactions (secondary organic aerosols, SOA). Both biogenic and anthropogenic precursors have been identified. Biogenic emissions of aerosol precursors are known to be climate-dependent. Thus, a bi-directional dependency exists between the biosphere and the atmosphere, whereby aerosols of biogenic origin influence the climate system, which in turn affects biogenic aerosol precursor production. This study builds upon the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5/HAM and adds techniques to model SOA as well as the necessary global emission inventories. Emission of biogenic precursors is calculated online. Formation of SOA is modeled by the well-known two-product model of SOA formation. SOA is subject to the same aerosol microphysics and sink processes as other modeled species (sulphate, black carbon, primary organic carbon, sea salt and dust). The aerosol radiative effects are calculated on a size resolved basis, and the aerosol scheme is coupled to the model cloud microphysics, permitting estimation of both direct and indirect aerosol effects. The following results will be discussed: (i) Estimation of the direct and indirect effects of biogenic and anthropogenic SOA, (ii) Estimation of the sign and magnitude of the biospheric feedback (through biogenic aerosol precursor emission) on the climate system, and (iii) Identification of physical processes and aerosol physical properties that need further experimental investigation in order to improve our understanding of the climate impact of SOA

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Indonesian Throughflow drove Australian climate from humid Pliocene to arid Pleistocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, B. A.; Renema, W.; Henderiks, J.; De Vleeschouwer, D.; Groeneveld, J.; Castañeda, I. S.; Reuning, L.; Bogus, K.; Auer, G.; Ishiwa, T.; McHugh, C.; Gallagher, S. J.; Fulthorpe, C.; Expedition 356 Scientists, I.

2016-12-01

Our understanding of the onset of aridity in Australia and associated mechanisms is limited by the availability of long, continuous climate archives, particularly for the NW shelf in the Pliocene. Five sites were cored and logged on IODP Expedition 356, western Australian margin. Analysis of the natural gamma ray (NGR) suite of downhole logs, provide insights to the timing and rate of climate change. NGR data provide an outstanding tool to assess continental humidity (K%) and aridity (Th/K, Uppm); interpretations are supported with clay mineral data. We show progressive constriction of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the emerging Maritime Continent drove Australian climate to become drier and more variable. We identify 3 intervals of latest Miocene through early Pleistocene change: sudden onset of humidity at 5.5 Ma (Humid Interval), followed by decreased humidity (Transition Interval) and establishment of the NW dust pathway (Arid Interval) at 2.3 Ma. The Humid Interval is associated with the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) expansion west to the South China Sea and higher Indian Ocean SSTs. Our study of the NW region confirms wetter climates ringed the arid center during the early Pliocene. Reduced moisture availability began at 3.3 Ma, coincident with cooling in the WPWP and elsewhere, global atmospheric circulation constriction and Indian Ocean subsurface freshening and cooling, a direct response to ITF constriction. Greatest aridity and the onset of the modern dust pathway, documented in Th/K and Uppm logs beginning 2.3 Ma, is coincident with orbitally- controlled climatic change, and reorganization of Indian Ocean circulation. Our data indicate Australian climate is driven by tectonic and oceanographic changes in the ITF. Such changes altered regional atmospheric moisture transport and Indian Ocean circulation patterns and led to a shift from Pacific to Indian Ocean influence on theNW Australian climate, well after the intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation. We conclude that the Maritime Continent is the switchboard modulating teleconnections between monsoonal and glacial climate systems.

Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick LB; Hurtt, George; Thomson, Allison M.

2013-02-19

The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon12 efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial sequestration capacity is affected by future climate feedbacks, but how and to what extent is little understood. Here, we show that climate mitigation strategies are highly sensitive to future natural disturbance rates (e.g. fires, hurricanes, droughts), because ofmore » potential effect of disturbances on the terrestrial carbon balance. Generally, altered disturbance rates affect the pace of societal and technological transitions required to achieve the mitigation target, with substantial consequences on the energy sector and on the global economy. Understanding the future dynamics and consequences of natural disturbances on terrestrial carbon balance is thus essential for developing robust climate mitigation strategies and policies« less

Compressing climate model simulations: reducing storage burden while preserving information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hammerling, Dorit; Baker, Allison; Xu, Haiying; Clyne, John; Li, Samuel

2017-04-01

Climate models, which are run at high spatial and temporal resolutions, generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the generated data is becoming a bottleneck, which negatively affects scientific progress. It is thus important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions, which still preserve all the critical information and, as an added benefit, allow for faster read and write operations during analysis work. Traditional lossy compression algorithms, as for example used for image files, are not necessarily ideally suited for climate data. While visual appearance is relevant, climate data has additional critical features such as the preservation of extreme values and spatial and temporal gradients. Developing alternative metrics to quantify information loss in a manner that is meaningful to climate scientists is an ongoing process still in its early stages. We will provide an overview of current efforts to develop such metrics to assess existing algorithms and to guide the development of tailored compression algorithms to address this pressing challenge.

Developing Climate Resilience Toolkit Decision Support Training Sectio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livezey, M. M.; Herring, D.; Keck, J.; Meyers, J. C.

2014-12-01

The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) is a Federal government effort to address the U.S. President's Climate Action Plan and Executive Order for Climate Preparedness. The toolkit will provide access to tools and products useful for climate-sensitive decision making. To optimize the user experience, the toolkit will also provide access to training materials. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been building a climate training capability for 15 years. The target audience for the training has historically been mainly NOAA staff with some modified training programs for external users and stakeholders. NOAA is now using this climate training capacity for the CRT. To organize the CRT training section, we collaborated with the Association of Climate Change Officers to determine the best strategy and identified four additional complimentary skills needed for successful decision making: climate literacy, environmental literacy, risk assessment and management, and strategic execution and monitoring. Developing the climate literacy skills requires knowledge of climate variability and change, as well as an introduction to the suite of available products and services. For the development of an environmental literacy category, specific topics needed include knowledge of climate impacts on specific environmental systems. Climate risk assessment and management introduces a process for decision making and provides knowledge on communication of climate information and integration of climate information in planning processes. The strategic execution and monitoring category provides information on use of NOAA climate products, services, and partnership opportunities for decision making. In order to use the existing training modules, it was necessary to assess their level of complexity, catalog them, and develop guidance for users on a curriculum to take advantage of the training resources to enhance their learning experience. With the development of this CRT training section, NOAA has made significant progress in sharing resources with the external community.

Spatio-temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Exposito-Alonso, Moises; Brennan, Adrian C; Alonso-Blanco, Carlos; Picó, F Xavier

2018-06-27

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness-related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life-history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north-western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north-western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north-western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Late Cretaceous (Late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, N.; Harlou, R.; Schovsbo, N. H.; Stemmerik, L.; Surlyk, F.

2015-11-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical time scale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Myr). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Late Cretaceous (late Campanian-Maastrichtian) sea-surface temperature record of the Boreal Chalk Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Nicolas; Harlou, Rikke; Schovsbo, Niels H.; Stemmerik, Lars; Surlyk, Finn

2016-02-01

The last 8 Myr of the Cretaceous greenhouse interval were characterized by a progressive global cooling with superimposed cool/warm fluctuations. The mechanisms responsible for these climatic fluctuations remain a source of debate that can only be resolved through multi-disciplinary studies and better time constraints. For the first time, we present a record of very high-resolution (ca. 4.5 kyr) sea-surface temperature (SST) changes from the Boreal epicontinental Chalk Sea (Stevns-1 core, Denmark), tied to an astronomical timescale of the late Campanian-Maastrichtian (74 to 66 Ma). Well-preserved bulk stable isotope trends and calcareous nannofossil palaeoecological patterns from the fully cored Stevns-1 borehole show marked changes in SSTs. These variations correlate with deep-water records of climate change from the tropical South Atlantic and Pacific oceans but differ greatly from the climate variations of the North Atlantic. We demonstrate that the onset and end of the early Maastrichtian cooling and of the large negative Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary carbon isotope excursion are coincident in the Chalk Sea. The direct link between SSTs and δ13C variations in the Chalk Sea reassesses long-term glacio-eustasy as the potential driver of carbon isotope and climatic variations in the Maastrichtian.

Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Ralph, F. Martin; Lavers, David A.; Rutz, Jonathan J.

2017-08-01

A new method for automatic detection of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is developed and applied to an atmospheric reanalysis, yielding an extensive catalog of ARs land-falling along the west coast of North America during 1948-2017. This catalog provides a large array of variables that can be used to examine AR cases and their climate-scale variability in exceptional detail. The new record of AR activity, as presented, validated and examined here, provides a perspective on the seasonal cycle and the interannual-interdecadal variability of AR activity affecting the hydroclimate of western North America. Importantly, AR intensity does not exactly follow the climatological pattern of AR frequency. Strong links to hydroclimate are demonstrated using a high-resolution precipitation data set. We describe the seasonal progression of AR activity and diagnose linkages with climate variability expressed in Pacific sea surface temperatures, revealing links to Pacific decadal variability, recent regional anomalies, as well as a generally rising trend in land-falling AR activity. The latter trend is consistent with a long-term increase in vapor transport from the warming North Pacific onto the North American continent. The new catalog provides unprecedented opportunities to study the climate-scale behavior and predictability of ARs affecting western North America.

Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2014-01-01

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

The Impact of Technological Progress in the Energy Sector on Carbon Emissions: An Empirical Analysis from China

PubMed Central

Jin, Lei; Duan, Keran; Shi, Chunming; Ju, Xianwei

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the relationship between technological progress in the energy sector and carbon emissions based on the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) and data from China during the period of 1995–2012. Our study confirms that the situation in China conforms to the EKC hypothesis and presents the inverted U-curve relationship between per capita income and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the inflection point will be reached in at least five years. Then, we use research and development (R & D) investment in the energy industry as the quantitative indicator of its technological progress to test its impact on carbon emissions. Our results show that technological progress in the energy sector contributes to a reduction in carbon emissions with hysteresis. Furthermore, our results show that energy efficiency improvements are also helpful in reducing carbon emissions. However, climate policy and change in industrial structure increase carbon emissions to some extent. Our conclusion demonstrates that currently, China is not achieving economic growth and pollution reduction simultaneously. To further achieve the goal of carbon reduction, the government should increase investment in the energy industry research and improve energy efficiency. PMID:29207562

The Impact of Technological Progress in the Energy Sector on Carbon Emissions: An Empirical Analysis from China.

PubMed

Jin, Lei; Duan, Keran; Shi, Chunming; Ju, Xianwei

2017-12-04

This paper investigates the relationship between technological progress in the energy sector and carbon emissions based on the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) and data from China during the period of 1995-2012. Our study confirms that the situation in China conforms to the EKC hypothesis and presents the inverted U-curve relationship between per capita income and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the inflection point will be reached in at least five years. Then, we use research and development (R & D) investment in the energy industry as the quantitative indicator of its technological progress to test its impact on carbon emissions. Our results show that technological progress in the energy sector contributes to a reduction in carbon emissions with hysteresis. Furthermore, our results show that energy efficiency improvements are also helpful in reducing carbon emissions. However, climate policy and change in industrial structure increase carbon emissions to some extent. Our conclusion demonstrates that currently, China is not achieving economic growth and pollution reduction simultaneously. To further achieve the goal of carbon reduction, the government should increase investment in the energy industry research and improve energy efficiency.

Parameterization of GCM subgrid nonprecipitating cumulus and stratocumulus clouds using stochastic/phenomenological methods. Annual technical progress report, 1 December 1992--30 November 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stull, R.B.

1993-08-27

This document is a progress report to the USDOE Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement Program (ARM). The overall project goal is to relate subgrid-cumulus-cloud formation, coverage, and population characteristics to statistical properties of surface-layer air, which in turn are modulated by heterogeneous land-usage within GCM-grid-box-size regions. The motivation is to improve the understanding and prediction of climate change by more accurately describing radiative and cloud processes.

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PubMed Central

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Changes in Migration Pattern of Transhumance due to Climate Change: An Empirical Analysis of Gaddi Community of Himachal Himalaya, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Himanshu; Wasini Pandey, Bindhy

2017-04-01

Transhumance is a complex and traditional livelihood system seeking to maintain equilibrium between pastures, livestock and local people in variable and inhospitable environments. In Western Himalayas in the Indian state of Himachal Pradesh, pastoral groups of Gaddis inhabit almost inaccessible areas, where scarce resources and extreme climatic conditions limit options for alternative land use and livelihood systems. In such a harsh and unforgiving environment, mobility in the form of transhumance has been the traditional ecological response to climatic extremes. However, recently, such additional factors as global as well as regional climate change have brought about changes in the tree line, snow line and pastoral grounds along the historical route of seasonal migration of the Gaddis. The growing unpredictability of the once static route of migration has raised the possibility of Gaddis shifting to alternative land use and land management techniques. In the present research, we explore how transhumant pastoralism has been sustained and stimulated in the context of socioeconomic and climate change in the mountainous region of Himachal Pradesh and the future challenges that it faces. Based on case study research conducted in Chamba district in Himachal Pradesh; we have analysed the status, opportunities, and constraints of transhumant pastoralism in the changing context and modeled the possible alternative land use decisions. Finally we conclude that unless there are affirmative and progressive policy and institutional framework to support transhumant system, the indigenous practice will soon disappear from this part of the world. Keywords: Climate change, Gaddis, Himachal Pradesh, Transhumance, Alternative Land Use

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

PubMed

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process of the development of the climate scenarios; *) users are involved already in the early phases of the development of new scenarios, among others in the following way: **) workshops on users' requirements to check whether they have changed and to get more information; **) feedback group of users to get more detailed feedback on the modes of communication; **) newsletter with information on the progress and procedures to be followed and separate workshops for researchers and policy makers with different levels of detail; **) projects together with impact researchers: tailoring of data and in order to be able to present impact information consistent with the climate scenarios much earlier. During the presentation more detailed information will be given on the interaction with users.

Progress Toward Meeting the Challenges of our Coastal Urban Future

EPA Science Inventory

Coastal urban regions are a nexus for climate change effects, extreme weather impacts, chemical/biological threats, and air quality issues as the global population increasingly concentrates in cities and megacities at the land/water interface. Sophisticated observational and mode...

HYDROLOGIC SENSITIVITY OF GLOBAL RIVERS TO CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Protecting health from climate change in the WHO European Region.

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Martinez, Gerardo Sanchez; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Williams, Eloise; Menne, Bettina

2014-06-16

"How far are we in implementing climate change and health action in the WHO European Region?" This was the question addressed to representatives of WHO European Member States of the working group on health in climate change (HIC). Twenty-two Member States provided answers to a comprehensive questionnaire that focused around eight thematic areas (Governance; Vulnerability, impact and adaptation (health) assessments; Adaptation strategies and action plans; Climate change mitigation; Strengthening health systems; Raising awareness and building capacity; Greening health services; and Sharing best practices). Strong areas of development are climate change vulnerability and impact assessments, as well as strengthening health systems and awareness raising. Areas where implementation would benefit from further action are the development of National Health Adaptation Plans, greening health systems, sharing best practice and reducing greenhouse gas emissions in other sectors. At the Parma Conference in 2010, the European Ministerial Commitment to Act on climate change and health and the European Regional Framework for Action to protect health from climate change were endorsed by fifty three European Member States. The results of this questionnaire are the most comprehensive assessment so far of the progress made by WHO European Member States to protecting public health from climate change since the agreements in Parma and the World Health Assembly Resolution in 2008.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

A Nonlinear Model for Interactive Data Analysis and Visualization and an Implementation Using Progressive Computation for Massive Remote Climate Data Ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, C.; Liu, S.; Scorzelli, G.; Lee, J. W.; Bremer, P. T.; Summa, B.; Pascucci, V.

2017-12-01

The creation, distribution, analysis, and visualization of large spatiotemporal datasets is a growing challenge for the study of climate and weather phenomena in which increasingly massive domains are utilized to resolve finer features, resulting in datasets that are simply too large to be effectively shared. Existing workflows typically consist of pipelines of independent processes that preclude many possible optimizations. As data sizes increase, these pipelines are difficult or impossible to execute interactively and instead simply run as large offline batch processes. Rather than limiting our conceptualization of such systems to pipelines (or dataflows), we propose a new model for interactive data analysis and visualization systems in which we comprehensively consider the processes involved from data inception through analysis and visualization in order to describe systems composed of these processes in a manner that facilitates interactive implementations of the entire system rather than of only a particular component. We demonstrate the application of this new model with the implementation of an interactive system that supports progressive execution of arbitrary user scripts for the analysis and visualization of massive, disparately located climate data ensembles. It is currently in operation as part of the Earth System Grid Federation server running at Lawrence Livermore National Lab, and accessible through both web-based and desktop clients. Our system facilitates interactive analysis and visualization of massive remote datasets up to petabytes in size, such as the 3.5 PB 7km NASA GEOS-5 Nature Run simulation, previously only possible offline or at reduced resolution. To support the community, we have enabled general distribution of our application using public frameworks including Docker and Anaconda.

Correspondence of terrestrial and marine paleoclimates, SW Florida, during Mid-Pliocene periods of global warmth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Willard, D.A.; Cronin, T.M.; Litwin, R.J.

Pollen and ostracode samples from shallow-marine strata of the Pinecrest Beds near Sarasota, FL were studied to compare terrestrial and marine paleoclimate records during periods of middle Pliocene global warmth. Pollen assemblages from strata deposited during sea-level highstands from about 3.5--3.0 Ma are dominated by Pinus pollen with subdominant Ouercus and common taxodiaceous pollen, which increases markedly in abundance near about 3.0 Ma. Comparison with modern, shallow-marine pollen assemblages from the east coast of the United States indicates that the 3.5--3.0 Ma vegetation was, overall, similar to vegetation from the southern third Florida. However, near 3.0 Ma, pollen assemblages becomemore » less similar to modern assemblages due to higher percentages of taxodiaceous pollen and lower percentages of herbaceous pollen. Such changes are consistent with warmer climates and, possibly, moister soil conditions. Marine ostracodes also show progressively higher percentages of thermophilic (subtropical/tropical) taxa and decreasing percentages of cryophilic (temperature) taxa between 3.5--3.0 Ma. From about 2.5--2.0 Ma, ostracode assemblages recorded open-bay, sometimes brackish environments similar to those in subtropical eastern North America today. The Pinecrest paleoclimate record shows (1) that during two periods of global warmth and high sea level, subtropical terrestrial and marine climates were not substantially warmer than today; (2) ocean and atmosphere temperatures probably were about the same as today, perhaps slightly higher during peak warmth near 3.0 Ma; (3) changes in pollen assemblages appear to lag behind changes in ostracode assemblages; (4) progressively warmer local climates 3.5--3.0 Ma probably record an increasing influence of warm Gulf Stream water as the Central American Isthmus closed.« less

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): Climate Science Infrastructure for Large-scale Data Management and Dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. N.

2015-12-01

Progress in understanding and predicting climate change requires advanced tools to securely store, manage, access, process, analyze, and visualize enormous and distributed data sets. Only then can climate researchers understand the effects of climate change across all scales and use this information to inform policy decisions. With the advent of major international climate modeling intercomparisons, a need emerged within the climate-change research community to develop efficient, community-based tools to obtain relevant meteorological and other observational data, develop custom computational models, and export analysis tools for climate-change simulations. While many nascent efforts to fill these gaps appeared, they were not integrated and therefore did not benefit from collaborative development. Sharing huge data sets was difficult, and the lack of data standards prevented the merger of output data from different modeling groups. Thus began one of the largest-ever collaborative data efforts in climate science, resulting in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), which is now used to disseminate model, observational, and reanalysis data for research assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, ESGF is an open-source petabyte-level data storage and dissemination operational code-base that manages secure resources essential for climate change study. It is designed to remain robust even as data volumes grow exponentially. The internationally distributed, peer-to-peer ESGF "data cloud" archive represents the culmination of an effort that began in the late 1990s. ESGF portals are gateways to scientific data collections hosted at sites around the globe that allow the user to register and potentially access the entire ESGF network of data and services. The growing international interest in ESGF development efforts has attracted many others who want to make their data more widely available and easy to use. For example, the World Climate Research Program, which provides governance for CMIP, has now endorsed the ESGF software foundation to be used for ~70 other model intercomparison projects (MIPs), such as obs4MIPs, TAMIP, CFMIP, and GeoMIP. At present, more than 40 projects disseminate their data via ESGF.

From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: exploring the progress for hydrological impact research for the upper Danube basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanzel, Philipp; Kling, Harald

2017-04-01

EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model (RCM) data are available as result of the latest initiative of the climate modelling community to provide ever improved simulations of past and future climate in Europe. The spatial resolution of the climate models increased from 25 x 25 km in the previous coordinated initiative, ENSEMBLES, to 12 x 12 km in the CORDEX EUR-11 simulations. This higher spatial resolution might yield improved representation of the historic climate, especially in complex mountainous terrain, improving applicability in impact studies. CORDEX scenario simulations are based on Representative Concentration Pathways, while ENSEMBLES applied the SRES greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The new emission scenarios might lead to different projections of future climate. In this contribution we explore these two dimensions of development from ENSEMBLES to CORDEX - representation of the past and projections for the future - in the context of a hydrological climate change impact study for the Danube River. We replicated previous hydrological simulations that used ENSEMBLES data of 21 RCM simulations under SRES A1B emission scenario as meteorological input data (Kling et al. 2012), and now applied CORDEX EUR-11 data of 16 RCM simulations under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. The climate variables precipitation and temperature were used to drive a monthly hydrological model of the upper Danube basin upstream of Vienna (100,000 km2). RCM data was bias corrected and downscaled to the scale of hydrological model units. Results with CORDEX data were compared with results with ENSEMBLES data, analysing both the driving meteorological input and the resulting discharge projections. Results with CORDEX data show no general improvement in the accuracy of representing historic climatic features, despite the increase in spatial model resolution. The tendency of ENSEMBLES scenario projections of increasing precipitation in winter and decreasing precipitation in summer is reproduced with the CORDEX RCMs, albeit with slightly higher precipitation in the CORDEX data. The distinct pattern of future change in discharge seasonality - increasing winter discharge and decreasing summer discharge - is confirmed with the new CORDEX data, with a range of projections very similar to the range projected by the ENSEMBLES RCMs. References: Kling, H., Fuchs, M., Paulin, M. 2012. Runoff conditions in the upper Danube basin under an ensemble of climate change scenarios. Journal of Hydrology 424-425, 264-277.

The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration with GIZ, UNFCCC, World Bank, and Climate Analytics.

The spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guastini, Corey T.

Progressive derechos are severe mesoscale convective systems that often form east of the Rocky Mountains during the warm season (May--August) and cause, by definition, straight-line wind damage along paths upwards of 400 km long. This study develops a subjective, seven-category classification scheme that spans the spectrum of progressive derecho formation environments from those dominated by robust upper-level ridges to those characterized by vigorous upper-level troughs. A climatology of 256 progressive derecho events is created for 1996--2013 and is categorized according to the developed classification scheme. Derecho initiation-relative composites are constructed for each of the seven groups using 0.5° Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data to document the environmental characteristics unique to each group as well as those shared among them. Finally, two in-depth case studies and five cursory case studies provide examples of the seven categories and reveal important nuances in mesoscale dynamic and thermodynamic structure inherent to all derecho cases. Results of the climatology show progressive derecho activity increases from 1 May through 1 July before decreasing again through the end of August and follows a northward trend in latitude from 1 May through 1 August before shifting slightly southward through the end of the warm season. Upslope flow in the vicinity of the Rocky Mountains initiates 28 percent of progressive derechos, upper-level troughs initiate 20 percent, 47 percent form in benign synoptic environments, and 5 percent are unclassifiable. Composite results show all progressive derecho initiation environments are marked by a long axis of instability caused by the overlap of high atmospheric moisture content and steep midlevel lapse rates, but the relative positions and strengths of upper-level troughs and ridges are crucial in determining how the instability axis develops and what its orientation in space will be. Case studies reveal instability axes forming in benign synoptic environments are generally zonally oriented and mainly the result of convergence of low-level moisture, whereas stronger synoptic-scale forcing forms meridionally oriented instability axes through the northward advection of Gulf moisture. The length and magnitude of these instability axes largely determines the duration and severity of a given progressive derecho.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron Macneil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Ohman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-04-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

The computational future for climate and Earth system models: on the path to petaflop and beyond.

PubMed

Washington, Warren M; Buja, Lawrence; Craig, Anthony

2009-03-13

The development of the climate and Earth system models has had a long history, starting with the building of individual atmospheric, ocean, sea ice, land vegetation, biogeochemical, glacial and ecological model components. The early researchers were much aware of the long-term goal of building the Earth system models that would go beyond what is usually included in the climate models by adding interactive biogeochemical interactions. In the early days, the progress was limited by computer capability, as well as by our knowledge of the physical and chemical processes. Over the last few decades, there has been much improved knowledge, better observations for validation and more powerful supercomputer systems that are increasingly meeting the new challenges of comprehensive models. Some of the climate model history will be presented, along with some of the successes and difficulties encountered with present-day supercomputer systems.

The landscape of Titan as witness to its climate evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Jeffrey M.; Howard, Alan D.; Morgan, Alexander M.

2014-09-01

We investigated the range of Titan climate evolution hypotheses regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We analyzed all available image data (principally synthetic aperture radar (SAR)) of Titan's landscape through the T-86 encounter, starting with focused examinations of terrains that carry the markers of climate evolution. Traditional geologic and geomorphic landscape analysis was used to perform morphometric characterization, establish time-stratigraphic relationships, and interpret local and regional geologic process-oriented evolutionary histories. We then assayed the distribution of terrains we identified with respect to both their latitudinal and altimetric occurrence. Our analysis of the terrain types and distributions was used to evaluate and rank the various climate evolution scenarios. We favor progressive hypotheses, which include a relatively brief period in which precipitation was able to affect geomorphic change in low latitudes at scales perceivable in SAR data, with subsequent gradual decline of precipitation intensity coupled with an increasing poleward restriction.

Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. T.; Ming, Y.; Li, W.; Hill, S. A.

2017-12-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

PubMed Central

Graham, Nicholas A J; Chabanet, Pascale; Evans, Richard D; Jennings, Simon; Letourneur, Yves; Aaron MacNeil, M; McClanahan, Tim R; Öhman, Marcus C; Polunin, Nicholas V C; Wilson, Shaun K

2011-01-01

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate. PMID:21320260

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Visser, Marcel E

2017-06-19

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483865

A review of national and international activities on modeling the effects of increased CO/sub 2/ concentrations on the simulation of regional crop production: (A report on linkage between climate and crop models): Progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Decker, W.L.; Achutuni, R.

1987-01-01

General circulation models have been used to estimate the probable changes in climate due to increased levels of carbon dioxide. These models, generally, project increases in the mean surface temperatures; but changes in precipitation due to CO/sub 2/ enrichment are not as clear. It appears that some process models, which utilize a minimum amount of empiricism, can be adopted for use in studying the impacts of both climate change scenarios and the direct effects of CO/sub 2/ fertilization. The CERES-Maize, CERES-Wheat, SORGF, GLYCIM, and SOYGRO are among those classified for this use. There is a great deal of effort beingmore » directed toward these developments. A WMO/UNEP/ICSU focus has sponsored at least two European meetings but with only limited success for testing production models. A similar effort has been conducted by the Commission of European Communities. An attempt has been made to modify the CERES models, which have been used in climate studies, for use in simulation of the direct effects. Initial simulations involving this modification, show that doubling CO/sub 2/ will increase corn production 12 to 30% at locations in northern Illinois for the four-year period 1982 to 1985. The increase in yield due to higher photosynthesis showed a greater effect than the impact of decreased transpiration.« less

Carbon Storage in Wetlands and Lakes of the Eastern US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Renik, Byrdie; Peteet, Dorothy; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Carbon stored underground may participate in a positive feedback with climate warming, as higher temperatures accelerate decomposition reactions and hence CO2 release. Assessing how below-ground carbon storage varies with modern climate and paleoclimate will advance understanding of this feedback in two ways. First, it will estimate the sensitivity of carbon storage to temperature and precipitation changes. Second, it will help quantify the size of carbon stocks available for the feedback, by indicating how current regional climate differences affect carbon storage. Whereas many studies of below-ground carbon storage concentrate on soils, this investigation focuses on the saturated and primarily organic material stored in wetlands and lake sediments. This study surveys research done on organic sediment depth and organic content at 50-100 sites in the eastern U.S., integrating our own research with the work of others. Storage depth is evaluated for sediments from the past 10,000 years, a date reflected in pollen profiles. Organic content is measured chiefly by loss-on-ignition (101). These variables are compared to characteristics of the sites such as latitude, altitude, and vegetation as well as local climate. Preliminary results suggest a strong relationship between latitude and depth of organic material stored over the last 10,000 years, with more accumulation in the northeastern US than the southeastern US. Linking the percent organic matter to actual carbon content is in progress with wetlands from Black Rock Forest and Alpine Swamp.

Overview of the National Energy-Water System (NEWS) Assessment Framework Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Rosenzweig, B.; Corsi, F.; Piasecki, M.; Celicourt, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Macknick, J.; Melillo, J. M.; Newmark, R. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Suh, S.; Prousevitch, A.

2015-12-01

In practical terms, strategic planning for the nation's economic, social and environmental future increasingly centers on issues relating to fresh water. U.S. energy security is highly dependent on electricity generated by the nation's fleet of thermoelectric power stations, which today contribute 90% to total electricity production. This presentation summarizes the overall structure and recent progress on a study devoted to climate adaptation and the reliability of power sector infrastructure and operations, when viewed through the lens of strategic water issues. The focus is on electric power infrastructure, i.e., the types, spatial distributions and levels of investment in technologies that deliver or could deliver electricity to the U.S. economy. The work is guided by a central hypothesis, that today's portfolio of electric power sector infrastructure is unsustainable in the context of satisfying its water needs under anticipated climate change and rising electricity demands. Insofar as water-mediated feedbacks reverberate throughout the national economy, we include macro-economic perspectives as well. The work is organized around the technical development of the NEWS framework which is then used to evaluate, in the context of anticipated climate, economic change and regulatory context: the performance of the nation's electricity sector, the feasibility of alternative pathways to improve climate adaptation, and impacts of energy technology. Scenarios are co-designed with a stakeholder community, and investment tradeoffs are considered with respect to the productivity of the economy, water availability and aquatic ecosystem condition.

Progress towards MODIS and VIIRS Cloud Fraction Data Record Continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, S. A.; Frey, R.; Holz, R.; Platnick, S. E.; Heidinger, A. K.

2016-12-01

Satellite-derived clear-sky vs. cloudy-sky discrimination at the pixel scale is an important input parameter used in many real-time applications. Cloud fractions, resulting from integrating over time and space, are also critical to the study of recent decadal climate changes. The NASA NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) has funded a science team to develop and study the ability to make continuous climate records from MODIS (2000-2020) and VIIRS (2012-2030). The MODAWG project, led by Dr. Steve Platnick of NASA/GSFC, combines elements of the MODIS processing system and the NOAA Algorithm Working Group (AWG) to achieve this goal. This presentation will focus on the cloud masking aspects of MODAWG, derived primarily from the MODIS cloud mask (MOD35). Challenges to continuity of cloud detection due to differences in instrument characteristics will be discussed. Cloud mask results from use of the same (continuity) algorithm will be shown for both MODIS and VIIRS, including comparisons to collocated CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) cloud data.

Acidification at the Surface in the East Sea: A Coupled Climate-carbon Cycle Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Young-Gyu; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Boo, Kyung-On; Lee, Johan; Cho, Chunho; Byun, Young-Hwa; Seo, Seongbong

2018-05-01

This modeling study investigates the impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration on acidification in the East Sea. A historical simulation for the past three decades (1980 to 2010) was performed using the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (version 2), a coupled climate model with atmospheric, terrestrial and ocean cycles. As the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased, acidification progressed in the surface waters of the marginal sea. The acidification was similar in magnitude to observations and models of acidification in the global ocean. However, in the global ocean, the acidification appears to be due to increased in-situ oceanic CO2 uptake, whereas local processes had stronger effects in the East Sea. pH was lowered by surface warming and by the influx of water with higher dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the northwestern Pacific. Due to the enhanced advection of DIC, the partial pressure of CO2 increased faster than in the overlying air; consequently, the in-situ oceanic uptake of CO2 decreased.

Modelling the Holderness coast, eastern England: Past, present and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barkwith, A.; Limber, P. W.; Thomas, C. W.; Murray, A.; Jordan, H. M.; Ellis, M. A.

2012-12-01

The Holderness coast of eastern Yorkshire, England, is the most rapidly eroding coastline in Europe. Erosion can locally exceed 10 m in a single year and rates average 0.5 to 3 m yr-1, generally increasing from north to south. Pinned in the north by a chalk headland, the soft till coastline has a characteristic open spiral form terminated by a spit to the south. Erosion currently threatens local communities and infrastructure, including nationally important gas installations. Interventions to restrict local erosion usually result in enhanced erosion in adjacent, unprotected sections of coast, mirroring morphology seen on the large scale. We have initiated a modelling study to investigate the key controls on the form and evolution of this coastline, and its response to climate change, building on the Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) developed at Duke University, NC. We have adapted the CEM to permit an ensemble of simulations to be undertaken, based upon modified offshore wave climates, initial conditions and forcing factors. The CEM follows a standard 1d approach, where the cross-shore is collapsed into a single data point, allowing the planform shoreline shape and dynamics to be simulated. The model facilitates study of a coast with variable erosion rates, and enables simulation of coastline evolution when sediment is supplied from an eroding shoreface. Additionally, the CEM is adapted to use an observed two year, offshore wave climate data set as input. Initial work focussed on reconstruction of current coastline shape from an ensemble of hypothetical early Holocene shoreface positions and past wave climates. First order reconstruction of shoreline shape was achieved using several differing initial conditions and wave climates. For the majority of successful simulations, a steady state was noted for proceeding years, where erosion proceeds at an equal rate along the length of the coast south of the headland. Together with a sensitivity analysis, the derivation of the current coastline provided initial conditions for the second phase of the work: simulating the morphological response of the Holderness coastline to possible future changes in climate over the next century. An ensemble of future possible wave climate perturbations was generated from predictions of the likely response of the North Sea to future climate change over the next century, and applied linearly to the observed wave climate as each simulation progressed. The ensemble output was compared to a baseline simulation, run for a century under current wave climate, to assess the impact of predicted future climate on coastal erosion. Although this study does not currently take into account the changes in storm frequency, rises in sea level or the anthropogenic inputs that could influence the results, the initial output indicates erosional rates over the next century are likely to be retarded for the Holderness coastline under a changing climate.

Assessment of Coastal Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojwang, Lenice; Rosendo, Sergio; Celliers, Louis; Obura, David; Muiti, Anastasia; Kamula, James; Mwangi, Maina

2017-11-01

The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This article applied a modified capitals approach framework (CAF), consisting of five "capitals," to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three county governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Furthermore, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

The atmospheric boundary layer — advances in knowledge and application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Hess, G. D.; Physick, W. L.; Bougeault, P.

1996-02-01

We summarise major activities and advances in boundary-layer knowledge in the 25 years since 1970, with emphasis on the application of this knowledge to surface and boundary-layer parametrisation schemes in numerical models of the atmosphere. Progress in three areas is discussed: (i) the mesoscale modelling of selected phenomena; (ii) numerical weather prediction; and (iii) climate simulations. Future trends are identified, including the incorporation into models of advanced cloud schemes and interactive canopy schemes, and the nesting of high resolution boundary-layer schemes in global climate models.

A commitment to coal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shea, Q.

2006-07-15

Quin Shea explores the need for power generated with coal and the advanced technologies that will generate that power more efficiently and cleanly in the future. The article considers the air and waste challenges of using coal, including progress toward reducing emissions of SO{sub 2}, NOx, and mercury; efforts to address CO{sub 2}, including voluntary programs like the Climate Challenge, Power Partners, and the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate; and the regulation and beneficial use of coal-combustion byproducts (e.g., fly ash, bottom ash, flue gas desulfurization materials, boiler slag). 17 refs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacMartin, Douglas G.; Kravitz, Ben; Long, Jane C. S.

Any well-informed future decision on whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering requires balancing the impacts (both intended and unintended) of intervening in the climate against the impacts of not doing so. In spite of the tremendous progress in the last decade, the current state of knowledge remains insufficient to support an assessment of this balance, even for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG), arguably the best understood (practical) geoengineering method. We then articulate key unknowns associated with SAG, including both climate-science and design questions, as an essential step toward developing a future strategic research program that could address outstanding uncertainties.

The Role of Air-sea Coupling in the Response of Climate Extremes to Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahajan, S.

2017-12-01

Air-sea interactions dominate the climate of surrounding regions and thus also modulate the climate response to local and remote aerosol forcings. To clearly isolate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols, we conduct experiments with a full complexity atmosphere model that is coupled to a series of ocean models progressively increasing in complexity. The ocean models range from a data ocean model with prescribed SSTs, to a slab ocean model that only allows thermodynamic interactions, to a full dynamic ocean model. In a preliminary study, we have conducted single forcing experiments with black carbon aerosols in an atmosphere GCM coupled to a data ocean model and a slab ocean model. We find that while black carbon aerosols can intensify mean and extreme summer monsoonal precipitation over the Indian sub-continent, air-sea coupling can dramatically modulate this response. Black carbon aerosols in the vicinity of the Arabian Sea result in an increase of sea surface temperatures there in the slab ocean model, which intensify the low-level Somali Jet. The associated increase in moisture transport into Western India enhances the mean as well as extreme precipitation. In prescribed SST experiments, where SSTs are not allowed to respond BC aerosols, the response is muted. We will present results from a hierarchy of GCM simulations that investigate the role of air-sea coupling in the climate response to aerosols in more detail.

Practices for Alleviating Heat Stress of Dairy Cows in Humid Continental Climates: A Literature Review

PubMed Central

Fournel, Sébastien; Ouellet, Véronique; Charbonneau, Édith

2017-01-01

Simple Summary The severity of heat stress issues on dairy cows will increase as global warming progresses. Fortunately, major advances in environmental management, including fans, misters, sprinklers, and cooled waterbeds, can attenuate the effects of thermal stress on cow health, production, and reproduction. These cooling systems were, however, tested in subtropical areas and their efficiency in northern regions is uncertain. This article assesses the potential of existing technologies to cool cows in humid continental climates through calculation of heat stress indices. Abstract Heat stress negatively affects the health and performance of dairy cows, resulting in considerable economic losses for the industry. In future years, climate change will exacerbate these losses by making the climate warmer. Physical modification of the environment is considered to be the primary means of reducing adverse effects of hot weather conditions. At present, to reduce stressful heat exposure and to cool cows, dairy farms rely on shade screens and various forms of forced convection and evaporative cooling that may include fans and misters, feed-line sprinklers, and tunnel- or cross-ventilated buildings. However, these systems have been mainly tested in subtropical areas and thus their efficiency in humid continental climates, such as in the province of Québec, Canada, is unclear. Therefore, this study reviewed the available cooling applications and assessed their potential for northern regions. Thermal stress indices such as the temperature-humidity index (THI) were used to evaluate the different cooling strategies. PMID:28468329

Did 250 years of forest management in Europe cool the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2016-04-01

Over the past two centuries European forest has evolved from being an over-exploited source of timber to a sustainably managed provider of diverse ecosystem services. Although this transition is often perceived as exemplary in resources management, the loss of unmanaged forest, the progressive shift from traditional coppice forestry to the current production-oriented management and the massive conversion of broadleaved to coniferous species are typically overlooked when assessing the impact of land-use change on climate. Here we present a study that addressed this gap by: (1) developing and reparameterizing the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management, (2) reconstructing the land-use history of Europe, accounting for changes in forest management and land cover. The model was coupled to the atmospheric model LMDz in a factorial simulation experiment to attribute climate change to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission and European land-use change since 1750 (i.e., afforestation, wood extraction and species conversion). We find that, despite considerable afforestation, Europe's forests failed to realize a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to wood extraction. Moreover, biophysical changes due to the conversion of deciduous forest into coniferous forest have offset mitigation through the carbon cycle. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe did not mitigate climate warming (Naudts et al., 2016). Naudts, K., Chen, Y., McGrath, M.J., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Otto, J., Luyssaert, S, Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming, Science, Accepted.

From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

2015-08-01

In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

Implications of recent research on microstructure modifications, through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, metabolic characteristics and nutrition in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

PubMed

Ying, Yuguang; Zhang, Huihua; Yu, Peiqiang

2018-02-16

The cutting-edge synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy have recently been developed. These novel techniques are able to reveal structure features at cellular and molecular levels with the tested tissues being intact. However, to date, the advanced techniques are unfamiliar or unknown to food and feed scientists and have not been used to study the molecular structure changes in cool-climate cereal grain seeds and other types of bio-oil and bioenergy seeds. This article aims to provide some recent research in cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds on molecular structures and metabolic characteristics of carbohydrate and protein, and implication of microstructure modification through heat-related processing and trait alteration to bio-functions, molecular thermal stability and mobility, and nutrition with advanced molecular techniques- synchrotron radiation based and globar-sourced vibrational infrared microspectroscopy in the areas of (1) Inherent microstructure of cereal grain seeds; (2) The nutritional values of cereal grains; (3) Impact and modification of heat-related processing to cereal grain; (4) Conventional nutrition evaluation methodology; (5) Synchrotron radiation-based and globar-sourced vibrational (micro)-spectroscopy for molecular structure study and molecular thermal stability and mobility, and (6) Recent molecular spectroscopic technique applications in research on raw, traits altered and processed cool-climate cereal grains and other types of seeds. The information described in this article gives better insights of research progress and update in cool-climate cereal grains and other seeds with advanced molecular techniques.

Farmer's response to changing climate in North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De, Utpal Kumar

2015-02-01

Diversification of land use in the cultivation of various crops provides an alternative way to moderate the climate risk. By choosing alternative crops that are resilient to various weather parameters, farmers can reduce the crop damage and achieve optimum output from their limited land resources. Apart from other adaptation measures, crop diversity can reflect farmers' response towards changing climate uncertainty. This paper tries to examine the changing climatic condition through spatio-temporal variation of two important weather variables (precipitation and temperature) in the largest North-East Indian state, Assam, since 1950. It is examined by the variation in crop diversification index. We have used (1) Herfindahl Index for measuring degree of diversification and (2) locational quotient for measuring the changes in the regional crop concentration. The results show that, in almost all the districts, crop specialization has been taking place slowly and that happened mostly in the last phase of our study. The hilly and backward districts recorded more diversification but towards lower value crops. It goes against the normal feature of crop diversification where farmers diversify in favour of high value crops. Employing ordinary least squares method and/or Fixed Effect model, irrigation is found to have significant impact on crop diversification; while the flood plain zones and hill zones are found to have better progress in this regard, which has been due to the survival necessity of poor farmers living the zone. Thus crop diversity does not reflect very significant response from the farmers' side towards changing weather factors (except rainfall) though they have significant impact on the productivity of various crops, and thus profitability. The study thus suggests the necessity for rapid and suitable diversification as alternative climate change mitigation in the long run.

Influence of orographic precipitation on the incision within a mountain-piedmont system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, Valeria; Carretier, Sébastien; Bonnet, Stephane

2017-04-01

The geomorphological evolution of a mountain-piedmont system depends both on tectonics and climate, as well as on couplings between the mountain and its piedmont. Although the interactions between climate and tectonics are a fundamental point for understanding the landscape evolution, the erosion of a mountain range and the sediment deposition at the mountain front, or piedmont, have been poorly studied as a coupled system. Here we focus on the conditions driving an incision within such a system. Classically, it is thought that incision results from a change in climate or uplift rates. However, it is not clear which are the specific conditions that favor the occurrence of river incision in the piedmont. In particular, studies have shown that the presence of a piedmont can modify the incision patterns, and even drive autogenic incision, without any change in external forcings. This is a crucial issue in order to interpret natural incisions in terms of uplift or climatic modifications. Such a problem is further complicated by the modification of local precipitations and temperatures during uplift, because the progressive effect of climate change may superimpose to uplift. In this work we explore the hypothesis that a mountain-piedmont coupled system may develop incision in its piedmont as a result of enhanced orographic precipitations during surface uplift. We use a landscape evolution model, Cidre, in order to explore the response of a mountain-piemont system in which the mountain is continuously uplifted but in which precipitation rates depend on elevations. Thus precipitation amounts change during the mountain uplift. We test different peaks and amplitudes of the orographic precipitation pattern, maintaining the other conditions constant. Preliminary results show that elevation-dependent precipitations drive temporary but pronounced incisions of the main rivers within the piedmont, contrary to experiments without orographic precipitations.

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

36 CFR 219.12 - Monitoring.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...) Measurable changes on the plan area related to climate change and other stressors that may be affecting the.... Monitoring information should enable the responsible official to determine if a change in plan components or... relevant assumptions, tracking relevant changes, and measuring management effectiveness and progress toward...

A CLIMATE VERSION OF THE REGIONAL ATMOSPHERIC MODELING SYSTEM. (R824993)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

ANALYZING INVESTMENTS FOR MANAGING GREAT LAKES LEVELS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE. (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

GPP Webinar: The Solar Roadmap—Navigating the Evolving Solar Energy Market

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

GPP and State & Local Climate and Energy Branch webinar on the Solar Roadmap and the evolving solar energy market. This webinar discussed local and state government’s success stories and opportunities for progress in renewable energy goals using the Solar

HOW SHOULD CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT? (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

THE TALE OF TWO CLIMATES-BALTIMORE AND PHOENIX LTER SITES. (R825792)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; Klein, Stephen A.

2017-10-01

Since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth andmore » fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.« less

Tropical rainforests dominate multi-decadal variability of the global carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Wang, Y. P.; Peng, S.; Rayner, P. J.; Silver, J.; Ciais, P.; Piao, S.; Zhu, Z.; Lu, X.; Zheng, X.

2017-12-01

Recent studies find that inter-annual variability of global atmosphere-to-land CO2 uptake (NBP) is dominated by semi-arid ecosystems. However, the NBP variations at decadal to multi-decadal timescales are still not known. By developing a basic theory for the role of net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) on NBP and applying it to 100-year simulations of terrestrial ecosystem models forced by observational climate, we find that tropical rainforests dominate the multi-decadal variability of global NBP (48%) rather than the semi-arid lands (35%). The NBP variation at inter-annual timescales is almost 90% contributed by NPP, but across longer timescales is progressively controlled by Rh that constitutes the response from the NPP-derived soil carbon input (40%) and the response of soil carbon turnover rates to climate variability (60%). The NBP variations of tropical rainforests is modulated by the ENSO and the PDO through their significant influences on temperature and precipitation at timescales of 2.5-7 and 25-50 years, respectively. This study highlights the importance of tropical rainforests on the multi-decadal variability of global carbon cycle, suggesting that we need to carefully differentiate the effect of NBP long-term fluctuations associated with ocean-related climate modes on the long-term trend in land sink.

UTLS Drift Analysis for the ACE-FTS and MIPAS CFC-11 and CFC-12 Data Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, K. A.; Zou, J.; Sheese, P.; Boone, C. D.; Stiller, G. P.; von Clarmann, T.

2017-12-01

To progress from monitoring atmospheric composition to investigating and quantifying atmospheric changes, well-characterized measurements over many years are required. The long lifetime of the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) has provided more than a decade of composition measurements that contribute to our understanding of ozone recovery, climate change and pollutant emissions. To enable the generation of climate data records using multiple data sets, characterization of the "drift" between data sets is required. This study will analyze and compare the time series of chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) measurements from two infrared satellite sensors, the ACE-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). With a focus on the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere, the long-term trend as well as annual, semi-annual and quasi-biennial oscillation terms derived from each data set will be compared for different altitude and latitude regions.

Urbanisation and greening of Indian cities: Problems, practices, and policies.

PubMed

Imam, Aabshar U K; Banerjee, Uttam Kumar

2016-05-01

Progress of the Indian economy is threatened by the impact of climate change. Generation of urban heat islands (UHIs), waning of urban green cover, increase in carbon emissions and air pollution deteriorate the living environment. Rise in urban temperatures and heat stress induced mortality remain major concerns. Although the National Action Plan on Climate Change emphasises the national missions of 'enhanced energy efficiency', and 'green India', little research has been devoted to explore the passive cooling potential of urban greenery in India, thus lending uniqueness to this study. The manifestations of unplanned urban development (UHIs, escalated carbon emissions, air pollution) are discussed and corroborated with identification of contributory factors. Contemporary greening practices and bye-laws in four major Indian cities (New Delhi, Pune, Chennai, and Visakhapatnam) are analysed and compared with global best practices. The findings are used to propose planning guidelines which are expected to assist in consolidating natural sustainability of emerging economies.

Abacus to determine soils salinity in presence of saline groundwater in arid zones case of the region of Ouargla

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fergougui, Myriam Marie El; Benyamina, Hind; Boutoutaou, Djamel

2018-05-01

In order to remedy the limit of salt intake to the soil surface, it is necessary to study the causes of the soil salinity and find the origin of these salts. The arid areas in the region of Ouargla lie on excessively mineralized groundwater whose level is near the soil surface (0 - 1.5 m). The topography and absence of a reliable drainage system led to the rise of the groundwater beside the arid climatic conditions contributed to the salinization and hydromorphy of the soils. The progress and stabilization of cultures yields in these areas can only occur if the groundwater is maintained (drained) to a depth of 1.6 m. The results of works done to the determination of soil salinity depend mainly on the groundwater's salinity, its depth and the climate.

WCRP Task Team for the Intercomparison of Reanalyses (TIRA): Motivation and Progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael

2017-01-01

Reanalyses have proven to be an important resource for weather and climate related research, as well as societal applications at large. Several centers have emerged to produce new atmospheric reanalyses in various forms every few years. In addition, land and ocean communities are producing disciplinary uncoupled reanalyses. Current research and development in reanalysis is directed at (1) extending the length of reanalyzed period and (2) use of coupled Earth system models for climate reanalysis. While WCRPs involvement in the reanalyses communities through its Data Advisory Council (WDAC) has been substantial, for example in organizing international conferences on reanalyses, a central team of reanalyses expertise is not in place in the WCRP structure. The differences among reanalyses and their inherent uncertainties are some of the most important questions for both users and developers of reanalyses. Therefore, a collaborative effort to systematically assess and intercompare reanalyses would be a logical progression that fills the needs of the community and contributes to the WCRP mission. The primary charge to the TIRA is to develop a reanalysis intercomparison project plan that will attain the following objectives.1)To foster understanding and estimation of uncertainties in reanalysis data by intercomparison and other means 2)To communicate new developments and best practices among the reanalyses producing centers 3)To enhance the understanding of data and assimilation issues and their impact on uncertainties, leading to improved reanalyses for climate assessment 4)To communicate the strengths and weaknesses of reanalyses, their fitness for purpose, and best practices in the use of reanalysis datasets by the scientific community. This presentation outlines the need for a task team on reanalyses, their intercomparison, the objectives of the team and progress thus far.

Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

PubMed

Kumar, Manoj

2016-08-01

In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of agricultural productivity to sustain food security for generations is essential to maintain a collective knowledge and resources for preventing negative impact as well as managing crop practises.

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change

PubMed Central

Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). Methods: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. Findings: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Interpretation: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669 PMID:28731409

Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.

PubMed

Linnakoski, Riikka; Forbes, Kristian M; Wingfield, Michael J; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Asiegbu, Fred O

2017-01-01

Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO 2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica , and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO 2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a limited body of empirical research on the effects of projected climate changes on forestry pathosystems, and is the first to investigate interactions between Norway spruce and E. polonica . The results indicate the potential for future climate changes to alter the impact of forest pathogens with implications for productivity, while highlighting the need for a strain-specific level of understanding of the disease agents.

Review of Aerosol–Cloud Interactions: Mechanisms, Significance, and Challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fan, Jiwen; Wang, Yuan; Rosenfeld, Daniel

2016-11-01

Over the past decade, the number of studies that investigate aerosol-cloud interactions has increased considerably. Although tremendous progress has been made to improve our understanding of basic physical mechanisms of aerosol-cloud interactions and reduce their uncertainties in climate forcing, we are still in poor understanding of (1) some of the mechanisms that interact with each other over multiple spatial and temporal scales, (2) the feedback between microphysical and dynamical processes and between local-scale processes and large-scale circulations, and (3) the significance of cloud-aerosol interactions on weather systems as well as regional and global climate. This review focuses on recent theoreticalmore » studies and important mechanisms on aerosol-cloud interactions, and discusses the significances of aerosol impacts on raditative forcing and precipitation extremes associated with different cloud systems. Despite significant understanding has been gained about aerosol impacts on the main cloud types, there are still many unknowns especially associated with various deep convective systems. Therefore, large efforts are needed to escalate our understanding. Future directions should focus on obtaining concurrent measurements of aerosol properties, cloud microphysical and dynamic properties over a range of temporal and spatial scales collected over typical climate regimes and closure studies, as well as improving understanding and parameterizations of cloud microphysics such as ice nucleation, mixed-phase properties, and hydrometeor size and fall speed« less

Initial period of sexual maturity determines the greater growth rate of male over female in the dioecious tree Juniperus communis subsp. communis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iszkuło, Grzegorz; Boratyński, Adam

2011-03-01

Dioecious species are a very interesting object of study because of predicted differences between male and female individuals. Most dioecious species have a higher reproductive effort in female individuals in comparison with males. The object of this study was common juniper ( Juniperus communis subsp. communis), dioecious shrubs or small trees. This study examined differences in radial growth rate between male and female individuals and the effect of climatic factors on tree-ring width in this species. Wood samples were taken from 30 trees (15 females and 15 males) and subjected to the standard procedure of dendrochronological dating. Females had lower growth rates than males after the age of 17 years. The greatest differences between genders in growth rate were observed between 17 and 25 years. After 26 years, male tree-rings were still wider, but the differences were much smaller. The differentiation of tree-ring width between males and females probably started when the female trees reached sexual maturity and started to produce seed cones. Differences between sexes in tree-ring width were noticed also in their reaction to climatic conditions. When compared to males, female individuals tended to be more sensitive to low temperature and low precipitation. This sensitivity of dioecious species could be one reason for their greater susceptibility to extinction in times of progressive climatic changes.

OPTIMIZATION OF IRREVERSIBLE INVESTMENTS IN WETLAND PRESERVATION UNDER CLIMATE AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES. (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF OZONE DEPLETION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLES. (R826939)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Clearing clouds of uncertainty

DOE PAGES

Zelinka, Mark D.; Randall, David A.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2017-09-29

We report that since 1990, the wide range in model-based estimates of equilibrium climate warming has been attributed to disparate cloud responses to warming. However, major progress in our ability to understand, observe, and simulate clouds has led to the conclusion that global cloud feedback is likely positive.

THE RESPONSE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SALINITY TO CLIMATE-INDUCED CHANGES IN STREAMFLOW. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Final Report for High Latitude Climate Modeling: ARM Takes Us Beyond Case Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Russell, Lynn M; Lubin, Dan

2013-06-18

The main thrust of this project was to devise a method by which the majority of North Slope of Alaska (NSA) meteorological and radiometric data, collected on a daily basis, could be used to evaluate and improve global climate model (GCM) simulations and their parameterizations, particularly for cloud microphysics. Although the standard ARM Program sensors for a less complete suite of instruments for cloud and aerosol studies than the instruments on an intensive field program such as the 2008 Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), the advantage they offer lies in the long time base and large volume of datamore » that covers a wide range of meteorological and climatological conditions. The challenge has been devising a method to interpret the NSA data in a practical way, so that a wide variety of meteorological conditions in all seasons can be examined with climate models. If successful, climate modelers would have a robust alternative to the usual “case study” approach (i.e., from intensive field programs only) for testing and evaluating their parameterizations’ performance. Understanding climate change on regional scales requires a broad scientific consideration of anthropogenic influences that goes beyond greenhouse gas emissions to also include aerosol-induced changes in cloud properties. For instance, it is now clear that on small scales, human-induced aerosol plumes can exert microclimatic radiative and hydrologic forcing that rivals that of greenhouse gas–forced warming. This project has made significant scientific progress by investigating what causes successive versions of climate models continue to exhibit errors in cloud amount, cloud microphysical and radiative properties, precipitation, and radiation balance, as compared with observations and, in particular, in Arctic regions. To find out what is going wrong, we have tested the models' cloud representation over the full range of meteorological conditions found in the Arctic using the ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) data.« less

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires through seasonal advection thermal effects on potential evaporation by winds blowing eastward over California, the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, and into the Great Plains. These coupled SST photosynthesis models constitute an advanced approach for crop modeling in the era of recent new climate.

Recent Progress in Measuring and Modeling Patterns of Biomass and Soil Carbon Pools Across the Amazon Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Christopher; Malhi, Yadvinder

2004-01-01

Ever more detailed representations of above-ground biomass and soil carbon pools have been developed during the LBA project. Environmental controls such as regional climate, land cover history, secondary forest regrowth, and soil fertility are now being taken into account in regional inventory studies. This paper will review the evolution of measurement-extrapolation approaches, remote sensing, and simulation modeling techniques for biomass and soil carbon pools, which together help constrain regional carbon budgets and enhance in our understanding of uncertainty at the regional level.

Successful Strategies for Earth Science Research in Native Communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redsteer, M. H.; Anderson, D.; Ben, N.; Bitsuie, R.; Blackhorse, A.; Breit, G.; Clifford, A.; Salabye, J.; Semken, S.; Weaver, K.; Yazzie, N.

2004-12-01

A small U.S. Geological Survey pilot project utilizes strategies that are successful at involving the Native community in earth science research. This work has ignited the interest of Native students in interdisciplinary geoscience studies, and gained the recognition of tribal community leaders from the conterminous United States, Alaska, and Canada. This study seeks to examine land use, climatic variability, and their related impacts on land-surface conditions in the ecologically sensitive Tsezhin Bii' region of the Navajo Nation. Work conducted by predominantly Native American researchers, includes studies of bedrock geology, surficial processes, soil and water quality, and plant ecology, as well as the history of human habitation. Community involvement that began during the proposal process, has helped to guide research, and has provided tribal members with information that they can use for land use planning and natural resource management. Work by Navajo tribal members who have become involved in research as it has progressed, includes K-12 science curriculum development, community outreach and education on environmental and geologic hazards, drought mitigation, grazing management, and impacts of climate change and land use on medicinal plants.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems. PMID:26505637

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Land radiative management as contributor to regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Phipps, Steven J.; Pitman, Andrew J.

The urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has been recognized, but the goal of limiting global temperature rise “well below 2 degrees” and possibly down to 1.5°C remains highly challenging, despite the large regional consequences. Slow progress in the reduction of CO2 emissions have led to the discussion of climate engineering schemes,, which remain controversial within the climate research communityIn particular, the reduction of global mean temperature via solar radiation management (SRMglob) could lead to strong regional disparities. Here we show, based on a literature review and climate model simulations, that regional land radiative management (LRMreg), a generally little-considered optionmore » in assessments of climate engineering could help reduce warming (and in particular hot extremes) in densely populated and major agricultural land regions. Several ethical issues would remain with the application of LRMreg, and its efficacy would also be limited in time and space related to crop growing periods and constraints on agricultural management. However, through its regional focus and reliance on tested techniques, LRMreg avoids main shortcomings associated with SRMglob. We argue therefore that albedo-related climate benefits of land management should be considered when assessing ecosystem services and integrated in scenarios of regional-scale climate adaptation and mitigation.« less

Tropical Pacific climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly: progress and pitfalls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobb, K. M.; Westphal, N.; Charles, C.; Sayani, H. R.; Edwards, R. L.; Cheng, H.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.; Atwood, A. R.

2016-12-01

A vast trove of paleoclimate records indicates that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1200AD) was characterized by relative warmth throughout the Northern Hemisphere and significant hydroclimate anomalies - particularly well-resolved over North America - that posed a challenge to human populations. The global-scale nature of the climate anomalies has driven speculation that the tropical Pacific, with its rich spectrum of natural variability and far-reaching impact, may have undergone a prolonged reorganization during the MCA. While some key records from across the tropical Pacific document significant changes in temperature and/or hydrology, a dynamically-consistent picture of the MCA tropical Pacific climate state has proven elusive. In particular, there are few if any robust paleoclimate constraints from the central Pacific, where even modest changes in ocean temperature translate into distinct patterns of global atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we present a new collection of fossil coral multi-proxy records from Christmas Island (2N, 157W) that provide robust constraints on both temperature and hydrological changes during the MCA. We employ both modern coral data, instrumental climate data, and climate model output in developing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties associated with the new fossil coral data. In doing so, we illustrate the clear benefits of modern environmental monitoring campaigns that inform the generation of paleoclimate pseudo-proxies.

Climate-induced landslide reactivation at the edge of the Most Basin (Czech Republic) - progress towards better landslide prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burda, J.; Hartvich, F.; Valenta, J.; Smítka, V.; Rybář, J.

2013-02-01

The catastrophic landslide at Eisenberg in North Bohemia was reactivated during January 2011. This study integrates a range of geoscientific evidence in order to constrain the spatial and temporal development of this reactivation. It has investigated long-term geodetic measurements to assess the morphological development of the site over the last two decades. There is evidence to suggest that, over this period, the site had been subjected to progressive deformation caused by the collapse of an old mine gallery. However, climatic data show that the reactivation itself was triggered by a dramatic rise in the water table induced by rapid snowmelt during a period of winter warming. Furthermore, geomorphological mapping has been used to characterise the morphology of the reactivated landslide and geophysical profiling has been used to analyse its internal structure. The results show that fissures are continuing to develop above the reactivated landslide scarp while highly saturated stiff-fissured claystones provide an incipient slide plane. The application of laser scanning has shown minimal evidence for ongoing landslide activity. It is, however, clear that future landslide events will occur here due to the favourable lithological, structural, and geotechnical conditions. Finally, we propose that future landslide activity at the site may be predicted by the height of water table as this defines theoretical pore pressure at the depth of the shear plane.

Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: A case study at 6000 years B.P.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kutzbach, J.-E.; Bartlein, P.J.; Foley, J.A.; Harrison, S.P.; Hosteller, S.W.; Liu, Z.; Prentice, I.C.; Webb, T.

1996-01-01

Previous climate model simulations have shown that the configuration of the Earth's orbit during the early to mid-Holocene (approximately 10-5 kyr) can account for the generally warmer-than-present conditions experienced by the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. New simulations for 6 kyr with two atmospheric/mixed-layer ocean models (Community Climate Model, version 1, CCM1, and Global ENvironmental and Ecological Simulation of Interactive Systems, version 2, GENESIS 2) are presented here and compared with results from two previous simulations with GENESIS 1 that were obtained with and without the albedo feedback due to climate-induced poleward expansion of the boreal forest. The climate model results are summarized in the form of potential vegetation maps obtained with the global BIOME model, which facilitates visual comparisons both among models and with pollen and plant macrofossil data recording shifts of the forest-tundra boundary. A preliminary synthesis shows that the forest limit was shifted 100-200 km north in most sectors. Both CCM1 and GENESIS 2 produced a shift of this magnitude. GENESIS 1 however produced too small a shift, except when the boreal forest albedo feedback was included. The feedback in this case was estimated to have amplified forest expansion by approximately 50%. The forest limit changes also show meridional patterns (greatest expansion in central Siberia and little or none in Alaska and Labrador) which have yet to be reproduced by models. Further progress in understanding of the processes involved in the response of climate and vegetation to orbital forcing will require both the deployment of coupled atmosphere-biosphere-ocean models and the development of more comprehensive observational data sets.

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios.

Linking Teleconnections and Iowa's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowe, S. T.; Villarini, G.; Lavers, D. A.; Scoccimarro, E.

2013-12-01

In recent years Iowa and the U.S. Midwest has experienced both extreme drought and flood periods. With a drought in 2012 bounded by major floods in 2011 and 2013, the rapid progression from one extreme to the next is on the forefront of the public mind. Given that Iowa is a major agricultural state, extreme weather conditions can have severe socioeconomic consequences. In this research we investigate the large-scale climate processes that occurred concurrently and before a range of dry/wet and cold/hot periods to improve process understanding of these events. It is essential to understand the large-scale climate processes, as these can then provide valuable insight toward the development of long-term climate forecasts for Iowa. In this study monthly and seasonal surface temperature and precipitation over 1950-2012 across Iowa are used. Precipitation and surface temperature data are retrieved from the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Climate Group at Oregon State University. The large-scale atmospheric fields are obtained from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Reanalysis 1 Project. Precipitation is stratified according to wet, normal, and dry conditions, while temperature according to hot, average, and cold periods. Different stratification criteria based on the precipitation and temperature distributions are examined. Mean sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature composite maps for the northern hemisphere are then produced for the wet/dry conditions, and cold/hot conditions. Further analyses include correlation, anomalies, and assessment of large-scale planetary wave activity, shedding light on the differences and similarities among the opposite weather conditions. The results of this work will highlight regional weather patterns that are related to the climate over Iowa, providing valuable insight into the mechanisms controlling the occurrence of potentially extreme weather conditions over this area.

Review of Land Use and Land Cover Change research progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yue; Hou, Kang; Li, Xuxiang; Zhang, Yunwei; Chen, Pei

2018-02-01

Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC) can reflect the pattern of human land use in a region, and plays an important role in space soil and water conservation. The study on the change of land use patterns in the world is of great significance to cope with global climate change and sustainable development. This paper reviews the main research progress of LUCC at home and abroad, and suggests that land use change has been shifted from land use planning and management to land use change impact and driving factors. The development of remote sensing technology provides the basis and data for LUCC with dynamic monitoring and quantitative analysis. However, there is no uniform standard for land use classification at present, which brings a lot of inconvenience to the collection and analysis of land cover data. Globeland30 is an important milestone contribution to the study of international LUCC system. More attention should be paid to the accuracy and results contrasting test of land use classification obtained by remote sensing technology.

Resolving tectonic, climatic, and geomorphologic signatures in the Eocene Green River Formation, Western U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. E.; Carroll, A. R.

2011-12-01

Tectonic lake basins are windows into the co-evolution of terrestrial climate and topography, but the stratigraphic responses to these drivers are complex and incompletely understood. Coring Quaternary lake basins has provided excellent temporal resolution, but is limited to one-dimensional archives of relatively short duration. Conversely, outcrop-based studies of older deposits can elucidate complex lateral facies relationships and longer time periods, but temporal resolution is often poor due to the lack of marine fossils. However, recent advances in radioisotopic dating have produced highly-resolved records of older lacustrine strata, provided volcanic ash beds are present. The Eocene Green River Formation in Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah is such a record, containing numerous 40Ar/39Ar-dated ash horizons with c.a. ±200 ky 2σ uncertainties. At the scale of individual Members of the Green River Formation (100-400 m), lithofacies and faunas differentiate five distinct lake-type intervals: Luman-Scheggs (fluviolacustrine), Rife (saline), Wilkins Peak (hypersaline-alluvial), Lower LaClede (saline), and Upper LaClede (fluviolacustrine). Although published explanations implicate tectonic and/or climatic control of these changes, both lack significant correlation to bulk lithofacies. While stratal geometries imply that the Uinta Mountains were the principle Eocene driver of flexural subsidence for the Greater Green River Basin (GGRB), conglomerate compositions reveal progressive Paleocene through Eocene unroofing rather than a discreet Early Eocene pulse of Laramide tectonism. Similarly, paleofloral evidence for climatic changes is equivocal. Instead, regional provenance and paleoflow patterns suggest that lake-type changes resulted from progressive hydrologic isolation of the GGRB from orogenic highlands to the west, hydrologic closure, then subsequent integration. From ~53 to ~51.5 Ma, Lake Gosiute expanded from a restricted freshwater to expansive saline lake. Abrupt diversion of a stream originating from the Cordilleran divide at ~51.5 Ma led to alternating deposition of the evaporative Wilkins Peak Member. Another Cordilleran stream carrying debris from the Challis Volcanic Field was subsequently redirected into the GGRB between 49.5 and 49 Ma, allowing the lake to reach its most expansive state, overflow, then progressively infill with volcaniclastic alluvium (Bridger and Washakie Formations) from 49 to 48 Ma. The most convincing example in the Green River Formation of the influence of climate-driven changes occurs at the "bed" scale. Cyclic repetitions of facies, long interpreted to reflect the influence of orbital periodicities, are most pronounced in the evaporative Wilkins Peak Member, where the most prominent periodicity is 10-20 meter scale alternations between lacustrine and alluvial strata. Lacustine intervals contain organic-rich micritic carbonates and bedded evaporates, and alluvial intervals are comprised of fine-grained siliciclastic alluvium with vertebrate traces, incipient pedogenesis, and no evaporite minerals. Interpolation between seven 40Ar/39Ar-dated ash beds indicates that these alternations have a well defined ~100 ky periodicity, a good fit for short eccentricity.

The Climate Change Crisis as an International Civil Rights Issue: Forging an Alliance Between Science, Activism, and Progressive Social Movements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, B. J.; Driver, S.

2011-12-01

If our scientific community wants to make real progress on the climate change and environmental crisis we must be willing to side with and fight for the oppressed. The national and international communities most ready to act - those hit hardest by the real impact of climate change in their day-to-day lives - need the political leadership of and a living, organic connection with scientists who are prepared to tell the truth and act on the truth of our science. A new generation of scientist-activist leaders and this strategic and mutually beneficial alliance with the oppressed will be necessary to wage an international, intransigent fight to enact and implement the social, political, and economic policies needed to mitigate the damage already done and prevent future environmental and human catastrophe. In the statement BAMN distributed to last year's Fall AGU conference we said, "there will be no shortage of mass struggle in the next period of history." This spring we saw the absolutely awe-inspiring social upheavals in North Africa and the Middle East in the form of waves of mass demonstrations in country after country. Many of those struggles, with demands for real democracy, for jobs and economic opportunities, for improved living conditions, continue to this day. In virtually every instance, these popular and progressive social movements have been led by youth: middle school, high school and college students. In the US and Europe we have seen the spread of student-led struggle around the defense of K-12 public education and on college campuses in defense of various programs, opportunities, and the character of the educational experience. The most dynamic force in these struggles has been the Latina/o, black, other underrepresented minority and immigrant youth who refuse to accept permanent second-class citizenship and a future devoid of hope and opportunity. We will discuss our experience as a youth-led civil rights organization presenting the issues of climate change as part of a broader, international fight against racism and inequality in order to bring the dynamism, boldness, optimism of youth and the power of an independent political program to the environmental movement.

Three Decades of Precision Orbit Determination Progress, Achievements, Future Challenges and its Vital Contribution to Oceanography and Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luthcke, Scott; Rowlands, David; Lemoine, Frank; Zelensky, Nikita; Beckley, Brian; Klosko, Steve; Chinn, Doug

2006-01-01

Although satellite altimetry has been around for thirty years, the last fifteen beginning with the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon (TP) have yielded an abundance of significant results including: monitoring of ENS0 events, detection of internal tides, determination of accurate global tides, unambiguous delineation of Rossby waves and their propagation characteristics, accurate determination of geostrophic currents, and a multi-decadal time series of mean sea level trend and dynamic ocean topography variability. While the high level of accuracy being achieved is a result of both instrument maturity and the quality of models and correction algorithms applied to the data, improving the quality of the Climate Data Records produced from altimetry is highly dependent on concurrent progress being made in fields such as orbit determination. The precision orbits form the reference frame from which the radar altimeter observations are made. Therefore, the accuracy of the altimetric mapping is limited to a great extent by the accuracy to which a satellite orbit can be computed. The TP mission represents the first time that the radial component of an altimeter orbit was routinely computed with an accuracy of 2-cm. Recently it has been demonstrated that it is possible to compute the radial component of Jason orbits with an accuracy of better than 1-cm. Additionally, still further improvements in TP orbits are being achieved with new techniques and algorithms largely developed from combined Jason and TP data analysis. While these recent POD achievements are impressive, the new accuracies are now revealing subtle systematic orbit error that manifest as both intra and inter annual ocean topography errors. Additionally the construction of inter-decadal time series of climate data records requires the removal of systematic differences across multiple missions. Current and future efforts must focus on the understanding and reduction of these errors in order to generate a complete and consistent time series of improved orbits across multiple missions and decades required for the most stringent climate-related research. This presentation discusses the POD progress and achievements made over nearly three decades, and presents the future challenges, goals and their impact on altimetric derived ocean sciences.

Linking plant and ecosystem functional biogeography.

PubMed

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Mahecha, Miguel D; Kattge, Jens; Baldocchi, Dennis D

2014-09-23

Classical biogeographical observations suggest that ecosystems are strongly shaped by climatic constraints in terms of their structure and function. On the other hand, vegetation function feeds back on the climate system via biosphere-atmosphere exchange of matter and energy. Ecosystem-level observations of this exchange reveal very large functional biogeographical variation of climate-relevant ecosystem functional properties related to carbon and water cycles. This variation is explained insufficiently by climate control and a classical plant functional type classification approach. For example, correlations between seasonal carbon-use efficiency and climate or environmental variables remain below 0.6, leaving almost 70% of variance unexplained. We suggest that a substantial part of this unexplained variation of ecosystem functional properties is related to variations in plant and microbial traits. Therefore, to progress with global functional biogeography, we should seek to understand the link between organismic traits and flux-derived ecosystem properties at ecosystem observation sites and the spatial variation of vegetation traits given geoecological covariates. This understanding can be fostered by synergistic use of both data-driven and theory-driven ecological as well as biophysical approaches.

Linking plant and ecosystem functional biogeography

PubMed Central

Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Kattge, Jens; Baldocchi, Dennis D.

2014-01-01

Classical biogeographical observations suggest that ecosystems are strongly shaped by climatic constraints in terms of their structure and function. On the other hand, vegetation function feeds back on the climate system via biosphere–atmosphere exchange of matter and energy. Ecosystem-level observations of this exchange reveal very large functional biogeographical variation of climate-relevant ecosystem functional properties related to carbon and water cycles. This variation is explained insufficiently by climate control and a classical plant functional type classification approach. For example, correlations between seasonal carbon-use efficiency and climate or environmental variables remain below 0.6, leaving almost 70% of variance unexplained. We suggest that a substantial part of this unexplained variation of ecosystem functional properties is related to variations in plant and microbial traits. Therefore, to progress with global functional biogeography, we should seek to understand the link between organismic traits and flux-derived ecosystem properties at ecosystem observation sites and the spatial variation of vegetation traits given geoecological covariates. This understanding can be fostered by synergistic use of both data-driven and theory-driven ecological as well as biophysical approaches. PMID:25225392

The climate of Kazakhstan: an examination of current conditions and future needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russell, Andrew; Ali, Maged; Althonayan, Abraham; Akhmetov, Kanat; Gazdiyeva, Bella; Ghalaieny, Mohamed; Kurmanbayeva, Aygul; McCann, Meg; Mukanov, Yelzhas; Tucker, Allan; Zhumabayeva, Sara

2017-04-01

Environmental Health is an essential aspect of any successful society; indeed, it was recognised as a cornerstone of the UN's Agenda 21 action plan for sustainable development. Clean air and water, safe food, minimal exposure to toxic materials, disaster preparedness, planning for climate change and effective waste management are all fundamental to a healthy population and socio-economic progress. In recent years, particularly since 2000, Kazakhstan's economic development has been exceptional. However, health indicators such as life expectancy are lagging behind nations with similar economies. It is likely that this "health lag" is, to a large extent, caused or aggravated by the poor state of Kazakhstan's natural environment. In this paper, we focus on the role of recent and future climate change in Kazakhstan. We examine ECMWF re-analysis data, data derived directly from observations and CMIP5 climate projections for the region to understand how climate may impact environmental health in the country. This analysis is part of a larger project that aims to take a more holistic approach to the analysis of environmental health in a developing nation.

Adapting to warmer climate through prolonged maize grain filling period in the US Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, P.; Zhuang, Q.; Jin, Z.

2017-12-01

Climate warming is expected to negatively impact the US food productivity. How to adapt to the future warmer environment and meet the rising food requirement becomes unprecedented urgent. Continuous satellite observational data provides an opportunity to examine the historic responses of crop plants to climate variation. Here 16 years crop growing phases information across US Midwest is generated based on satellite observations. We found a prolonged grain-filling period during 2000-2015, which could partly explain the increasing trend in Midwest maize yield. This longer grain-filling period might be resulted from the adoption of longer maturity group varieties or more resistant varieties to temperature variation. Other management practice changes like advance in planting date could be also an effective way of adapting future warmer climate through lowering the possibility of exposure to heat and drought stresses. If the progress in breeding technology enables the maize grain-filling period to prolong with the current rate, the maize grain filling length could be longer and maize yield in Midwest could adapt to future climate despite of the warming.

Learning from Non-Linear Ecosystem Dynamics Is Vital for Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sietz, Diana; Fleskens, Luuk; Stringer, Lindsay C.

Land Degradation Neutrality is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets, requiring on-going degradation to be balanced by restoration and sustainable land management. However, restoration and efforts to prevent degradation have often failed to deliver expected benefits,despite enormous investments. Better acknowledging the close relationships between climate, land management and non-linear ecosystem dynamics can help restoration activities to meet their intended goals, while supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is the first to link ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics to Land Degradation Neutrality offering essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunities and risks and the financialmore » viability of investments. These novel insights are pre-requisites for meaningful o and monitoring of progress towards Land Degradation Neutrality« less

Learning from Non-Linear Ecosystem Dynamics Is Vital for Achieving Land Degradation Neutrality

DOE PAGES

Sietz, Diana; Fleskens, Luuk; Stringer, Lindsay C.

2017-02-27

Land Degradation Neutrality is one of the Sustainable Development Goal targets, requiring on-going degradation to be balanced by restoration and sustainable land management. However, restoration and efforts to prevent degradation have often failed to deliver expected benefits,despite enormous investments. Better acknowledging the close relationships between climate, land management and non-linear ecosystem dynamics can help restoration activities to meet their intended goals, while supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation. This paper is the first to link ecological theory of non-linear ecosystem dynamics to Land Degradation Neutrality offering essential insights into appropriate timings, climate-induced windows of opportunities and risks and the financialmore » viability of investments. These novel insights are pre-requisites for meaningful o and monitoring of progress towards Land Degradation Neutrality« less

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Changing climate: Geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lachenbruch, A.H.; Marshall, B.V.

1986-01-01

Temperature profiles measured in permafrost in northernmost Alaska usually have anomalous curvature in the upper 100 meters or so. When analyzed by heat-conduction theory, the profiles indicate a variable but widespread secular warming of the permafrost surface, generally in the range of 2 to 4 Celsius degrees during the last few decades to a century. Although details of the climatic change cannot be resolved with existing data, there is little doubt of its general magnitude and timing; alternative explanations are limited by the fact that heat transfer in cold permafrost is exclusively by conduction. Since models of greenhouse warming predict climatic change will be greatest in the Arctic and might already be in progress, it is prudent to attempt to understand the rapidly changing thermal regime in this region.

Ice ages and geomagnetic reversals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Patrick

1992-01-01

There have been speculations on the relationship between climatic cooling and polarity reversals of the earth's magnetic field during the Pleistocene. Two of the common criticisms on this relationship have been the reality of these short duration geomagnetic events and the accuracy of their dates. Champion et al. (1988) have reviewed recent progress in this area. They identified a total of 10 short-duration polarity events in the last 1 Ma and 6 of these events have been found in volcanic rocks, which also have K-Ar dates. Supposing that the speculated relationship between climatic cooling and geomagnetic reversals actually exist, two mechanisms that assume climatic cooling causes short period magnetic reversals will be investigated. These two methods are core-mantle boundary topography and transfer of the rotational energy to the core.

Malaria early warning tool: linking inter-annual climate and malaria variability in northern Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Smith, Jason; Tahani, Lloyd; Bobogare, Albino; Bugoro, Hugo; Otto, Francis; Fafale, George; Hiriasa, David; Kazazic, Adna; Beard, Grant; Amjadali, Amanda; Jeanne, Isabelle

2017-11-21

Malaria control remains a significant challenge in the Solomon Islands. Despite progress made by local malaria control agencies over the past decade, case rates remain high in some areas of the country. Studies from around the world have confirmed important links between climate and malaria transmission. This study focuses on understanding the links between malaria and climate in Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, with a view towards developing a climate-based monitoring and early warning for periods of enhanced malaria transmission. Climate records were sourced from the Solomon Islands meteorological service (SIMS) and historical malaria case records were sourced from the National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). A declining trend in malaria cases over the last decade associated with improved malaria control was adjusted for. A stepwise regression was performed between climate variables and climate-associated malaria transmission (CMT) at different lag intervals to determine where significant relationships existed. The suitability of these results for use in a three-tiered categorical warning system was then assessed using a Mann-Whitney U test. Of the climate variables considered, only rainfall had a consistently significant relationship with malaria in North Guadalcanal. Optimal lag intervals were determined for prediction using R 2 skill scores. A highly significant negative correlation (R = - 0.86, R 2  = 0.74, p < 0.05, n = 14) was found between October and December rainfall at Honiara and CMT in northern Guadalcanal for the subsequent January-June. This indicates that drier October-December periods are followed by higher malaria transmission periods in January-June. Cross-validation emphasized the suitability of this relationship for forecasting purposes [Formula: see text]  as did Mann-Whitney U test results showing that rainfall below or above specific thresholds was significantly associated with above or below normal malaria transmission, respectively. This study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions in northern Guadalcanal which allow sandbars to form across the mouths of estuaries which act to develop or increase stagnant brackish marshes in low rainfall periods. These are ideal habitats for the main mosquito vector, Anopheles farauti. High rainfall accumulations result in the flushing of these habitats, reducing their viability. The results of this study are now being used as the basis of a malaria early warning system which has been jointly implemented by the SIMS, NVBDCP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Lawrence W., Jr.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

2016-03-01

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay.

PubMed

Harding, Lawrence W; Mallonee, Michael E; Perry, Elgin S; Miller, W David; Adolf, Jason E; Gallegos, Charles L; Paerl, Hans W

2016-03-30

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km(2) watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945-1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981-2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries.

Variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics in Chesapeake Bay

PubMed Central

Harding, Jr., Lawrence W.; Mallonee, Michael E.; Perry, Elgin S.; Miller, W. David; Adolf, Jason E.; Gallegos, Charles L.; Paerl, Hans W.

2016-01-01

Variable climatic conditions strongly influence phytoplankton dynamics in estuaries globally. Our study area is Chesapeake Bay, a highly productive ecosystem providing natural resources, transportation, and recreation for nearly 16 million people inhabiting a 165,000-km2 watershed. Since World War II, nutrient over-enrichment has led to multiple ecosystem impairments caused by increased phytoplankton biomass as chlorophyll-a (chl-a). Doubled nitrogen (N) loadings from 1945–1980 led to increased chl-a, reduced water clarity, and low dissolved oxygen (DO), while decreased N loadings from 1981–2012 suggest modest improvement. The recent 30+ years are characterized by high inter-annual variability of chl-a, coinciding with irregular dry and wet periods, complicating the detection of long-term trends. Here, we synthesize time-series data for historical and recent N loadings (TN, NO2 + NO3), chl-a, floral composition, and net primary productivity (NPP) to distinguish secular changes caused by nutrient over-enrichment from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic conditions. Wet years showed higher chl-a, higher diatom abundance, and increased NPP, while dry years showed lower chl-a, lower diatom abundance, and decreased NPP. Our findings support a conceptual model wherein variable climatic conditions dominate recent phytoplankton dynamics against a backdrop of nutrient over-enrichment, emphasizing the need to separate these effects to gauge progress toward improving water quality in estuaries. PMID:27026279

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

HYDROLOGY-BIOGEOCHEMISTRY MODEL FOR INVESTIGATING IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND TIMBER HARVEST ON WATERSHEDS. (R824803)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

ANTHROPOGENIC AND CLIMATIC INFLUENCES ON THE EUTROPHICATION OF LARGE ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEMS. (R828677C001)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

State of the Earth 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Lester; And Others

1985-01-01

Discusses soil erosion, drought, forest systems, overfishing, global climate change, hunger, population, energy, and building a sustainable society. Emphasizes the breakdown of natural systems in Africa. (Most of the material in this article was drawn from "State of the World 1985: A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a…

HOW SHOULD CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT? MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS. (R825150)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

DENGUE FEVER EPIDEMIC POTENTIAL AS PROJECTED BY GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN. (R824802)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Write-Skewed: Writing in an Introductory Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delcham, Hendrick; Sezer, Renan

2010-01-01

Statistics is used in almost every facet of our daily lives: crime reports, election results, environmental/climate change, advances in business, financial planning, and progress in multifarious research. Although understanding statistics is essential for efficient functioning in the modern world (Cerrito 1996), students often do not grasp…

Assessing the continuum of applications and societal benefits of US CLIVAR science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

The new US CLIVAR strategic plan seeks to address the challenges of communicating the climate knowledge generated through its activities and to collaborate with the research and operational communities that may use this knowledge for managing climate risks. This presentation provides results of an overview in progress of the continuum of potential applications of climate science organized and coordinated through US CLIVAR. We define applications more broadly than simply ready for operations or direct use, and find that there are several stages in a continuum of readiness for communication and collaboration with communities that use climate information. These stages include: 1) advancing scientific understanding to a readiness for the next research steps aimed at predictable signals; 2) application of understanding climate phenomena in collaboration with a boundary organization, such as NOAA RISAs DOI Climate Science Centers, and USDA Climate Hubs, to understand how predictable signals may be translated into useable products; 3) use of knowledge in risk framing for a decision process, or in a science synthesis, such as the National Climate Assessment, and 4) transitioning new science knowledge into operational products (e.g. R2O), such as intraseasonal climate prediction. In addition, US CLIVAR has sponsored efforts to build science-to-decisions capacity, e.g., the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) program, in its 7th cohort, which has embedded climate experts into decision-making institutions. We will spotlight accomplishments of US CLIVAR science that are ripe for application in communities that are managing climate risks -- such as drought outlooks, MJO forecasting, extremes, and ocean conditions -- for agricultural production, water use, and marine ecosystems. We will use these examples to demonstrate the usefulness of an "applications continuum framework" identifying pathways from research to applications.

Has solar variability caused climate change that affected human culture?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feynman, Joan

If solar variability affects human culture it most likely does so by changing the climate in which the culture operates. Variations in the solar radiative input to the Earth's atmosphere have often been suggested as a cause of such climate change on time scales from decades to tens of millennia. In the last 20 years there has been enormous progress in our knowledge of the many fields of research that impinge on this problem; the history of the solar output, the effect of solar variability on the Earth's mean climate and its regional patterns, the history of the Earth's climate and the history of mankind and human culture. This new knowledge encourages revisiting the question asked in the title of this talk. Several important historical events have been reliably related to climate change including the Little Ice Age in northern Europe and the collapse of the Classical Mayan civilization in the 9th century AD. In the first section of this paper we discus these historical events and review the evidence that they were caused by changes in the solar output. Perhaps the most important event in the history of mankind was the development of agricultural societies. This began to occur almost 12,000 years ago when the climate changed from the Pleistocene to the modern climate of the Holocene. In the second section of the paper we will discuss the suggestion ( Feynman and Ruzmaikin, 2007) that climate variability was the reason agriculture developed when it did and not before.

Simulated Hydrologic Responses to Climate Variations and Change in the Merced, Carson, and American River Basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Cayan, D. R.; Meyer, M. K.

2001-12-01

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5ºC warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

2016-01-01

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Review of erosion dynamics along the major N-S climatic gradient in Chile and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carretier, S.; Tolorza, V.; Regard, V.; Aguilar, G.; Bermúdez, M. A.; Martinod, J.; Guyot, J.-L.; Hérail, G.; Riquelme, R.

2018-01-01

Chile is an elongated country, running in a north-south direction for more than 30° along a subduction zone. Its climate is progressively wetter and colder from north to south. This particular geography has been used positively by a growing number of studies to better understand the relationships between erosion processes and climate, land use, slope, tectonics, volcanism, etc. Here we review the erosion rates, factors, and dynamics over millennial to daily periods reported in the literature. In addition, 21 new catchment mean erosion rates (suspended sediment and 10Be) are provided, and previous suspended sediment-derived erosion rates are updated. A total of 485 local and catchment mean erosion rates are reported. Erosion rates vary between some of the smallest values on earth (10-5 mm/a) to moderate values ≤0.5 mm/a compared to other active ranges. This review highlights strong limitations concerning the quantification of local erosion factors because of uncertainties in sampling point location, slope and rainfall data. For the mean erosion rates E for the millennial and decennial catchments, a model of the form E ∝ S/ [1 - (S/0.6)2] Rα with α = [0.3,0.8] accounts for 40 to 70% of the erosion variance, confirming a primary role of slope S compared to precipitation rate R over this time scale. Over the long-term, this review points to the long (5 to >10 Ma) response time of rivers to surface uplift in north-central arid Chile. Over millennia, data provide evidence for the progressive contribution of extreme erosion events to millennial averages for drier climates, as well as the link between glacier erosion and glacier sliding velocity. In this period of time, a discrepancy exists between the long-term offshore sedimentological record and continental decennial or millennial erosion data, for which no single explanation appears. Still, little information is available concerning the magnitude of variation of millennial erosion rates. Over centuries, data show the variable role of groundwater in the dynamics of suspended load and document a decrease in erosion over hundreds of years, probably associated with historical harvesting.

Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS): Examples of Adaptation Strategies With Next Challenges from Brazilian Risk Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza, F. A. A. D.; Mendiondo, E. M.; Taffarello, D.; Guzmán-Arias, D.; Fava, M. C.; Abreu, F.; Freitas, C. C.; de Macedo, M. B.; Estrada, C. R.; do Lago, C. A.

2017-12-01

In Brazil, more than 40,000 hot-spot areas, with vulnerable human settlements with ca. 120 million inhabitants and responsible of 60% of Brazilian Gross Net Product, are threatened by hydrological-driven disaster risks. In these areas, local resilient actions and adaptation strategies do integrate the current Brazilian Act and Regulation of Laws of urban waters, climate change and civil protection. However, these initiatives are still under slow progress, especially to cope with floods, landslides, droughts, progressive biodiversity losses and energy burnouts. Here we address these hot-spots through the concept of Socio-Hydrological Observatory for Water Security (SHOWS), with a mix of adaptation strategies, open-source, big data analysis and societal feedbacks. On the one hand, SHOWS merges strategies like the dynamic framework of water security (Srinivasan et al, 2017), drought risk mapping (Rossato et al, 2017) and water securitization under varying water demand and climate change until year 2100 (Mohor & Mendiondo, 2017; Guzmán-Arias et al, 2017). SHOWS acknowledges different perspectives of water insecurity, several spatiotemporal scales and regime shifts in socio-hydrologic systems. On the one hand, SHOWS links field monitoring during water insecurity hazards (Taffarello et al, 2016), ecosystem-based adaptation networks, and decision-making and big data sources to disaster management (Horita et al, 2017). By using selected examples from two Brazilian running interdisciplinary research aliances, i.e. CAPES-ProAlertas CEMADEN-CEPED/USP and the CNPq/FAPESP National Institute of Science & Technology on Climate Change-II Water Security, we also face the limits, the pros and cons of SHOWS' assumptions. Through real-cases paradoxes, (i.e. 2013/2014 drought), water dashboards and coevolution trends (i.e. impacts on river basin committees from scenarios until 2050, 2100 in NE & SE Brazil), SHOWS helps on guiding decisionmaking for next societal steps of water governance under non-stationary drivers of socio-economy, natural resources and wealth/technology at other South American studies. Funding: CAPES 88887.091743/2014-01 ProAlertas CEPED/USP, CNPq 465501/2014-1, FAPESP 2014/50848-9 INCT-II Climate Change-Water Security, CNPq PQ 312056/2016-8 & CAPES-PROEX-PPGSHS

2015 ESGF Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D. N.

2015-06-22

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration whose purpose is to develop the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. ESGF’s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces. The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging, which is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards. ESGF integrates popular application engines available from the open-sourcemore » community with custom components (for data publishing, searching, user interface, security, and messaging) that were developed collaboratively by the team. The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs of the global climate science community.« less

The Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI compared to ergonomics standards for assessing the thermal environment.

PubMed

Bröde, Peter; Błazejczyk, Krzysztof; Fiala, Dusan; Havenith, George; Holmér, Ingvar; Jendritzky, Gerd; Kuklane, Kalev; Kampmann, Bernhard

2013-01-01

The growing need for valid assessment procedures of the outdoor thermal environment in the fields of public weather services, public health systems, urban planning, tourism & recreation and climate impact research raised the idea to develop the Universal Thermal Climate Index UTCI based on the most recent scientific progress both in thermo-physiology and in heat exchange theory. Following extensive validation of accessible models of human thermoregulation, the advanced multi-node 'Fiala' model was selected to form the basis of UTCI. This model was coupled with an adaptive clothing model which considers clothing habits by the general urban population and behavioral changes in clothing insulation related to actual environmental temperature. UTCI was developed conceptually as an equivalent temperature. Thus, for any combination of air temperature, wind, radiation, and humidity, UTCI is defined as the air temperature in the reference condition which would elicit the same dynamic response of the physiological model. This review analyses the sensitivity of UTCI to humidity and radiation in the heat and to wind in the cold and compares the results with observational studies and internationally standardized assessment procedures. The capabilities, restrictions and potential future extensions of UTCI are discussed.

The Evolution of Indian and Pacific Ocean Denitrification and Nitrogen Dynamcs since the Miocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.; Carney, C.; Rosenthal, Y.; Holbourn, A.; Kulhanek, D. K.

2017-12-01

The feedbacks between geochemical cycles and physical climate change are poorly understood; however, there has been tremendous progress in developing coupled models to help predict the direction and strength of these feedbacks. As such, there is a need for more data to validate and test these models. To this end, the nitrogen (N) cycle, and its links to the biological pump and to climate, is an active area of paleoceanographic research. Using N isotope records, Robinson et al. (2014) showed that pelagic denitrification in the Indian and Pacific Oceans intensified as climate cooled and subsurface ventilation decreased since the Pliocene. They pointed out that a more ventilated warm Pliocene contrasts with glacial-interglacial patterns wherein more ventilation occurs during cold phases, indicating that different mechanisms may occur at different timescales. Our objective is to better understand the nature of the feedbacks between the oceanic N cycle and climate by focusing on the large dynamic range of conditions that occurred during and since the Miocene. We used new cores drilled during IODP Expedition 363 to generate bulk sediment N isotope records at three western tropical Pacific sites (U1486, U1488, U1490) and one southeastern tropical Indian Ocean site (U1482). We find that the N isotope trends since the Pliocene are in agreement with previous studies showing increasing denitrification as climate cooled. In the Miocene, the Indian Ocean record shows no long-term N isotope trend whereas the Pacific Ocean records show a trend that is roughly coupled to changes in global climate suggesting that pelagic denitrification in the Pacific was strongly influenced by greater ventilation during global warmth. However, there are notable deviations from this coupling during several intervals in the Miocene, and there are site-to-site differences in trends. These deviations and differences can be explained by changes in tropical productivity (e.g., late Miocene biogenic bloom), which drove changes subsurface oxygenation and denitrification, and by changes in regional circulation. Our study provides fundamental data that can be used to validate conceptual and numerical models of the long-term coupling of climate, biological productivity and ocean chemistry.

[Study on sweat gland regeneration induced by microenvironment of three-dimensional bioprinting].

PubMed

Yao, B; Xie, J F; Huang, S; Fu, X B

2017-01-20

Sweat glands are abundant in the body surface and essential for thermoregulation. Sweat glands fail to conduct self-repair in patients with large area of burn and trauma, and the body temperature of patients increases in hot climate, which may cause shock or even death. Now, co-culture system, reprogramming, and tissue engineering have made progresses in inducing sweat gland regeneration, but the inductive efficiency and duration need to be improved. Cellular microenvironment can regulate cell biological behavior, including cell migration and cell differentiation. This article reviews the studies of establishment of microenvironment in vitro by three-dimensional bioprinting technology to induce sweat gland regeneration.

Rio + 5: picking up the pieces.

PubMed

Hinrichsen, D

1997-01-01

The UN General Assembly Special Session held during June 1997 has failed to take forward the objectives set out at the Earth Summit in Rio, casting doubt on the global effort to create a sustainable future. This article presents a balance sheet set out by Don Hinrichsen in the wake of Rio+5. It outlines the progress made by the UN as well as the prevailing issues, which need to be acted upon immediately. It is noted that little progress has been made since the Summit; only the issues of population, forests, and oceans have been given attention, subsequently achieving a significant progress. However, the UN has failed in addressing the issues of poverty, high consumption, management of freshwater, and the continued loss and impoverishment of biological diversity. Little or lack of progress has been made since Rio in implementing recommendations tackling such problems. In the context of the issues regarding land degradation and climate change, assessing progress would be too early for these aspects.

Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gogineni, Sivaprasad; Thomas, Robert H.; Abdalati, Waleed (Editor)

1999-01-01

The Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) is a NASA-sponsored initiative with the prime objective of understanding the mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. In October 1998, PARCA investigators met to review activities of the previous year, assess the program's progress, and plan future investigations directed at accomplishing that objective. Some exciting results were presented and discussed, including evidence of dramatic thinning of the ice sheet near the southeastern coast. Details of the investigations and many of the accomplishments are given in this report, but major highlights are given in the Executive Summary of the report.

CALIPSO at Four: Results and Progress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winker, Dave; Hu, Yong; Pitts, Mike; Tackett, Jason; Kittaka, Chieko; Liu, Zhaoyan; Vaughan, Mark

2010-01-01

Aerosols and clouds play important roles in Earth?s climate system, but limitations in our ability to observe them globally limit our understanding of the climate system and our ability to model it. The CALIPSO satellite was developed to provide new capabilities to observe aerosol and cloud from space. CALIPSO carries the first polarization-sensitive lidar to fly in space, which has now provided a four-year record of global aerosol and cloud profiles. This paper briefly summarizes the status of the CALIPSO mission, describes some of the results from CALIPSO, and presents highlights of recent improvements in data products.

The challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maccracken, Michael C.

1992-01-01

Meeting the challenge of identifying greenhouse gas-induced climatic change involves three steps. First, observations of critical variables must be assembled, evaluated, and analyzed to determine that there has been a statistically significant change. Second, reliable theoretical (model) calculations must be conducted to provide a definitive set of changes for which to search. Third, a quantitative and statistically significant association must be made between the projected and observed changes to exclude the possibility that the changes are due to natural variability or other factors. This paper provides a qualitative overview of scientific progress in successfully fulfilling these three steps.

The Martian climate: Energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.

1984-01-01

Progress in the development of a multi-reservoir, time dependent energy balance climate model for Mars driven by prescribed insolation at the top of the atmosphere is reported. The first approximately half-year of the program was devoted to assembling and testing components of the full model. Specific accomplishments were made on a longwave radiation code, coupling seasonal solar input to a ground temperature simulation, and conceptualizing an approach to modeling the seasonal pressure waves that develop in the Martian atmosphere as a result of sublimation and condensation of CO2 in polar regions.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

Climate Change and Neotectonic History of Northwestern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farr, Tom G.; Chadwick, Oliver; Evans, Diane; Gillespie, Alan; Peltzer, Gilles; Tapponnier, Paul

1996-01-01

The progress, results and future plans for the following objectives are presented: (1) To compare the types, rates, and magnitudes of surficial modification processes that have operated in Northwest China and the Southwestern U.S.; (2) To quantify and understand the basis of the remote sensing signatures of these processes to allow extrapolation from field sites to regional maps and to allow comparisons between widely separated arid regions; (3) To use the resulting chronologies to help define the temporal and spatial distribution of continental climate changes; and (4) Determine the ages of movements on some of the active faults in Northwestern China.

The contentious nature of soil organic matter.

PubMed

Lehmann, Johannes; Kleber, Markus

2015-12-03

The exchange of nutrients, energy and carbon between soil organic matter, the soil environment, aquatic systems and the atmosphere is important for agricultural productivity, water quality and climate. Long-standing theory suggests that soil organic matter is composed of inherently stable and chemically unique compounds. Here we argue that the available evidence does not support the formation of large-molecular-size and persistent 'humic substances' in soils. Instead, soil organic matter is a continuum of progressively decomposing organic compounds. We discuss implications of this view of the nature of soil organic matter for aquatic health, soil carbon-climate interactions and land management.

Using Time Series of Landsat Data to Improve Understanding of Short- and Long-Term Changes to Vegetation Phenology in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedl, M. A.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Gray, J. M.

2014-12-01

Phenology, the seasonal progression of organisms through stages of dormancy, active growth, and senescence is a key regulator of ecosystem processes and is widely used as an indicator of vegetation responses to climate change. This is especially true in temperate forests, where seasonal dynamics in canopy development and senescence are tightly coupled to the climate system. Despite this, understanding of climate-phenology interactions is incomplete. A key impediment to improving this understanding is that available datasets are geographically sparse, and in most cases include relatively short time series. Remote sensing has been widely promoted as a useful tool for studies of large-scale phenology, but long-term studies from remote sensing have been limited to AVHRR data, which suffers from limitations related to its coarse spatial resolution and uncertainties in atmospheric corrections and radiometric adjustments that are used to create AVHRR time series. In this study, we used 30 years of Landsat data to quantify the nature and magnitude of long-term trends and short-term variability in the timing of spring leaf emergence and fall senescence. Our analysis focuses on temperate forest locations in the Northeastern United States that are co-located with surface meteorological observations, where we have estimated the timing of leaf emergence and leaf senescence at annual time steps using atmospherically corrected surface reflectances from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. Comparison of results from Landsat against ground observations demonstrates that phenological events can be reliably estimated from Landsat time series. More importantly, results from this analysis suggest two main conclusions related to the nature of climate change impacts on temperate forest phenology. First, there is clear evidence of trends towards longer growing seasons in the Landsat record. Second, interannual variability is large, with average year-to-year variability exceeding the magnitude of total changes to the growing season that have occurred over the last three decades. Based on these results we suggest that year-to-year variability in phenology, rather than long-term trends, provides the best basis for predicting future changes in temperate forest phenology in response to climate change.

Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

PubMed

Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

2018-02-01

Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Developing and Applying a Multi-scale Framework to Study the Relationship between Landscapes and Coastal Waters in the Texas Gulf Coast in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z. L.; McClelland, J. W.; Su, H.; Cai, X.; Lin, P.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Griffin, C. G.; Turner, E.; Maidment, D. R.; Montagna, P.

2014-12-01

This study seeks to improve our understanding of how upland landscapes and coastal waters, which are connected by watersheds, respond to changes in hydrological and biogeochemical cycles resulting from changes in climate, local weather patterns, and land use. This paper will report our progress in the following areas. (1) The Noah-MP land surface model is augmented to include the soil nitrogen leaching and plants fixation and uptake of nitrogen. (2) We have evaluated temperature, precipitation and runoff change (2039-2048 relative to 1989-1998) patterns in Texas under the A2 emission scenario using the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) product. (3) We have linked a GIS-based river routing model (RAPID) and a GIS-based nitrogen input dataset (TX-ANB). The modeling framework was conducted for total nitrogen (TN) load estimation in the San Antonio and Guadalupe basins. (4) Beginning in July 2011, the Colorado, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces rivers have been sampled on a monthly basis. Sampling continued until November 2013. We also have established an on-going citizen science sampling program. We have contacted the Lower Colorado River Authority and the Texas Stream Team at Texas State University to solicit participation in our program. (5) We have tested multiple scenarios of nutrient contribution to South Texas bays. We are modeling the behavior of these systems under stress due to climate change such as less overall freshwater inflow, increased inorganic nutrient loading, and more frequent large storms.

Polar Ice Sheets Drive Paleohydroclimate Affecting Terrestrial Plant Distribution and CO2 Exchange Potential during the Upper Carboniferous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. D.; Poulsen, C. J.; Montanez, I. P.; McElwain, J.; Wilson, J. P.; Hren, M. T.

2016-12-01

Variation in atmospheric CO2 concentration and presence or absence of polar ice sheets simulated for 310 mya using the GENESIS model show changes in terrestrial temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration at mid and lower latitudes. Classifying the data into Holdridge life zones for simulations with 280, 560, and 1120 ppm CO2, in the presence of a southern Gondwanan ice sheet resulted in progressive increase of cool temperate, humid-to-subhumid and tropical subhumid zones. Without the ice sheet, subtropical subhumid to semiarid zones expanded. Simulation results show that approximately 50% of the land area was classified as polar or tundra followed by 35 to 42%, depending on the scenario, classified as sub-tropical semiarid-to-subhumid. Only 5-8% were classified as temperate humid-to-subhumid or tropical humid-to-perhumid. Also, the absence of ice sheets reduced the moister sub-climates, such as within the tropical climate zone. Because different plant assemblages dominated each climate zone, for example cordaitaleans in the subtropical and medullosans and lycophytes in the tropics, physiological differences in these plants may have resulted in unequal CO2 exchange feedbacks to the atmosphere during climate shifts. Previous physiological modeling based on plant foliar traits indicates that late Paleozoic plant species differed in CO2 uptake capacity with highest sensitivity to water availability during periods with low atmospheric CO2 concentration. This implies that vegetation climate feedbacks during this period may have been non-uniform during climate change events. Inference of plant contribution to climate forcing must rely on understanding geographic distribution of affected vegetation, inherent vegetation physiological properties, and antecedent atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results indicate that seasonally dry climates prevailed in the low-latitude land area, and that slightly cooler temperatures than today must be considered. This study also shows that mechanistic modeling of paleoclimate should consider the spatial distribution of different plant species, the distribution of water availability for plants within climate zones, and the physiological attributes of species dominating paleolandscapes at specific geologic time periods.

[Deposition and burial of organic carbon in coastal salt marsh: research progress].

PubMed

Cao, Lei; Song, Jin-Ming; Li, Xue-Gang; Yuan, Hua-Mao; Li, Ning; Duan, Li-Qin

2013-07-01

Coastal salt marsh has higher potential of carbon sequestration, playing an important role in mitigating global warming, while coastal saline soil is the largest organic carbon pool in the coastal salt marsh carbon budget. To study the carbon deposition and burial in this soil is of significance for clearly understanding the carbon budget of coastal salt marsh. This paper summarized the research progress on the deposition and burial of organic carbon in coastal salt marsh from the aspects of the sources of coastal salt marsh soil organic carbon, soil organic carbon storage and deposition rate, burial mechanisms of soil organic carbon, and the relationships between the carbon sequestration in coastal salt marsh and the global climate change. Some suggestions for the future related researches were put forward: 1) to further study the underlying factors that control the variability of carbon storage in coastal salt marsh, 2) to standardize the methods for measuring the carbon storage and the deposition and burial rates of organic carbon in coastal salt marsh, 3) to quantify the lateral exchange of carbon flux between coastal salt marsh and adjacent ecosystems under the effects of tide, and 4) to approach whether the effects of global warming and the increased productivity could compensate for the increase of the organic carbon decomposition rate resulted from sediment respiration. To make clear the driving factors determining the variability of carbon sequestration rate and how the organic carbon storage is affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities would be helpful to improve the carbon sequestration capacity of coastal salt marshes in China.

High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation and snowpack over the US northern Rockies in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Geerts, B.; Liu, C.

2015-12-01

This work first examines the performance of a regional climate model in capturing orographic precipitation and snowpack dynamics in the northern US Rockies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run at a sufficiently fine resolution (4-km horizontal grid spacing), over a sub-continental domain driven by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), to examine WRF's ability to simulate the observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack dynamics. WRF retrospective simulations are being run over a 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL, providing precipitation rate and snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM, providing fine-scale monthly mean values of precipitation and temperature) are used for validation. The results show that WRF captures observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack build-up reasonably well. The second part of this work is in progress. A pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique is used to perturb the retrospective reanalysis with the anticipated change according to the consensus global model guidance under the CMIP5 "high emissions" (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the CCSM4. This technique preserves low-frequency general circulation patterns and the characteristics of storms entering the domain. The WRF model is rerun over 30 years centered on 2050 with perturbed initial and boundary conditions. The results will be used to examine the effect of climate variability and projected global warming on the statistical distributions of precipitation amounts and SWE in the studied domain.

Spectral emissivity of cirrus clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beck, Gordon H.; Davis, John M.; Cox, Stephen K.

1993-01-01

The inference of cirrus cloud properties has many important applications including global climate studies, radiation budget determination, remote sensing techniques and oceanic studies from satellites. Data taken at the Parsons Kansas site during the FIRE II project are used for this study. On November 26 there were initially clear sky conditions gradually giving way to a progressively thickening cirrus shield over a period of a few hours. Interferometer radiosonde and lidar data were taken throughout this event. Two techniques are used to infer the downward spectral emittance of the observed cirrus layer. One uses only measurements and the other involves measurements and FASCODE III calculations. FASCODE III is a line-by line radiance/transmittance model developed at the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory.

Ethical leadership outcomes in nursing.

PubMed

Barkhordari-Sharifabad, Maasoumeh; Ashktorab, Tahereh; Atashzadeh-Shoorideh, Foroozan

2017-01-01

Leadership style adopted by nursing managers is a key element in progress and development of nursing and quality of healthcare services received by the patients. In this regard, the role of ethical leadership is of utmost importance. The objective of the study was to elaborate on the ethical leadership and its role in professional progress and growth of nurses in the light of work condition in health providing institutes. The study was carried out as a qualitative study following conventional content analysis method. In total, 14 nursing faculty members and nursing managers at different levels were selected through purposive sampling method. Semi-structured interviews were used for data gathering. The data were analyzed using latent content analysis and constant comparison analysis. Ethical considerations: This study was conducted in accordance with ethical issues in research with human participants and national rules and regulations related to informed consent and confidentiality. The study was approved by the Committee of Ethics in Research at the Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences in Tehran, Iran, under the code: sbmu.rec.1393.695 on 15 February 2015. Five subcategories were obtained based on the analysis, which constituted two main categories including "all-inclusive satisfaction" and "productivity." Nursing leaders highlighted the point that their ethical behavior creates "inner satisfaction of the leader," "employees' job satisfaction," and "patients' satisfaction." Improvement of productivity was another outcome of ethical behavior of the leaders. This kind of behavior resulted in "providing better services" and "inspiring ethical behavior in the employees." It has great influence on progress and growth of the nursing profession. By creating an ethical climate, ethical leadership leads to positive and effective outcomes-for the patients as well as for the nurses and the leaders-and professional progress and development of the nursing profession. Therefore, an ethical work environment that supports nurses' progress and development can be developed by paying more attention to moralities in recruitment, teaching ethical values to the leaders, and using a systematic and objective approach to assess morality in the environment.

Unsteady Landscapes: Climatic and Tectonic Controls on Fluvial Terrace Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clubb, F. J.; Mudd, S. M.

2017-12-01

Fluvial terraces are common landforms throughout mountainous regions which represent abandoned remnants of active river systems and their floodplains. The formation of these landforms points to a fundamental unsteadiness in the incision rate of the fluvial network, providing important information on channel response to climatic, tectonic, and base-level forcing, sediment storage and dynamics within mountainous systems, and the relative importance of lateral and vertical incision rates. In his 1877 Report on the Geology of the Henry Mountains, G.K. Gilbert suggested that strath terraces may form due to climatically-driven increase in sediment supply, causing armouring of the channel bed and hindering vertical incision. An alternative hypothesis suggests that strath terraces may be preserved through progressive tectonic uplift or base-level fall. These different formation mechanisms should result in varying distribution of terrace elevations along channels: if terraces are formed through climate-driven variations in sediment supply, we might expect that terrace elevations would be random, whereas progressive fluvial incision should result in a series of terraces with a systematic elevation pattern. Here we test alternative hypotheses for strath terrace formation using a new method for objectively and rapidly identifying terrace surfaces from digital elevation models (DEMs) over large spatial scales. Our new method identifies fluvial terraces using their gradient and elevation compared to the modern channel, thresholds of which are statistically calculated from the DEM and do not need to be set manually by the user. We use this method to extract fluvial terraces for every major river along the coast of California, and quantify their distribution and elevation along the fluvial long profile. Our results show that there is no systematic pattern in terrace elevations despite a well-constrained spatial variation in uplift rates, suggesting that terraces in this region do not reflect the influence of regional tectonics, and may instead be the formed through climatic variations or autogenic fluvial processes.

What and How Are We Evaluating? Meta-Evaluation Study of the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) Portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A. M.; Barnes, M. H.; Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.

2011-12-01

As part of NASA's Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP), the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project at Langley Research Center has funded 71 climate education initiatives since 2008. The funded initiatives span across the nation and contribute to the development of a climate-literate public and the preparation of a climate-related STEM workforce through research experiences, professional development opportunities, development of data access and modeling tools, and educational opportunities in both K-12 and higher education. Each of the funded projects proposes and carries out its own evaluation plan, in collaboration with external or internal evaluation experts. Using this portfolio as an exemplar case, NICE has undertaken a systematic meta-evaluation of these plans, focused primarily on evaluation questions, approaches, and methods. This meta-evaluation study seeks to understand the range of evaluations represented in the NICE portfolio, including descriptive information (what evaluations, questions, designs, approaches, and methods are applied?) and questions of value (do these evaluations meet the needs of projects and their staff, and of NASA/NICE?). In the current climate, as federal funders of climate change and STEM education projects seek to better understand and incorporate evaluation into their decisions, evaluators and project leaders are also seeking to build robust understanding of program effectiveness. Meta-evaluations like this provide some baseline understanding of the current status quo and the kinds of evaluations carried out within such funding portfolios. These explorations are needed to understand the common ground between evaluative best practices, limited resources, and agencies' desires, capacity, and requirements. When NASA asks for evaluation of funded projects, what happens? Which questions are asked and answered, using which tools? To what extent do the evaluations meet the needs of projects and program officers? How do they contribute to best practices in climate science education? These questions are important to ask about STEM and climate literacy work more generally; the NICE portfolio provides a broad test case for thinking strategically, critically, and progressively about evaluation in our community. Our findings can inform the STEM education, communication, and public outreach communities, and prompt us to consider a broad range of informative evaluation options. During this presentation, we will consider the breadth, depth and utility of evaluations conducted through a NASA climate education funding opportunity. We will examine the relationship between what we want to know about education programs, what we want to achieve with our interventions, and what we ask in our evaluations.

What and How Are We Evaluating? Meta-Evaluation Study of the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) Portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, A. M.; Barnes, M. H.; Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.

2013-12-01

As part of NASA's Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP), the NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project at Langley Research Center has funded 71 climate education initiatives since 2008. The funded initiatives span across the nation and contribute to the development of a climate-literate public and the preparation of a climate-related STEM workforce through research experiences, professional development opportunities, development of data access and modeling tools, and educational opportunities in both K-12 and higher education. Each of the funded projects proposes and carries out its own evaluation plan, in collaboration with external or internal evaluation experts. Using this portfolio as an exemplar case, NICE has undertaken a systematic meta-evaluation of these plans, focused primarily on evaluation questions, approaches, and methods. This meta-evaluation study seeks to understand the range of evaluations represented in the NICE portfolio, including descriptive information (what evaluations, questions, designs, approaches, and methods are applied?) and questions of value (do these evaluations meet the needs of projects and their staff, and of NASA/NICE?). In the current climate, as federal funders of climate change and STEM education projects seek to better understand and incorporate evaluation into their decisions, evaluators and project leaders are also seeking to build robust understanding of program effectiveness. Meta-evaluations like this provide some baseline understanding of the current status quo and the kinds of evaluations carried out within such funding portfolios. These explorations are needed to understand the common ground between evaluative best practices, limited resources, and agencies' desires, capacity, and requirements. When NASA asks for evaluation of funded projects, what happens? Which questions are asked and answered, using which tools? To what extent do the evaluations meet the needs of projects and program officers? How do they contribute to best practices in climate science education? These questions are important to ask about STEM and climate literacy work more generally; the NICE portfolio provides a broad test case for thinking strategically, critically, and progressively about evaluation in our community. Our findings can inform the STEM education, communication, and public outreach communities, and prompt us to consider a broad range of informative evaluation options. During this presentation, we will consider the breadth, depth and utility of evaluations conducted through a NASA climate education funding opportunity. We will examine the relationship between what we want to know about education programs, what we want to achieve with our interventions, and what we ask in our evaluations.

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ON ALPINE TUNDRA ECOSYSTEMS IN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. (R827449)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

THE UNCERTAINTY OF SPATIAL SCALE OF CLIMATE SCENARIOS IN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS: AN EXAMPLE FROM AGRICULTURE. (R824997)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

NEW PROCEDURES TO ESTIMATE WATER TEMPERATURES AND WATER DEPTHS FOR APPLICATION IN CLIMATE-DENGUE MODELING. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The Racial School-Climate Gap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Voight, Adam

2013-01-01

Education inequity is a persistent reality of American culture. As early as kindergarten, there are marked differences in academic performance between racial minority students and their peers. These differences are sustained as students progress through school. One aspect of students' social experience that may help to explain the gap is school…

Transition Experiences of Disabled Young People

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piggott, Linda; Houghton, Ann-Marie

2007-01-01

This paper outlines the changing employment climate and shift in attitudes towards disabled people who are expected to become economically active in order to fulfill their role as responsible citizens. We briefly describe the employment profile of disabled people and reiterate the combination of factors identified in shaping progression into the…

SIMULATION MODEL RESULTS OF LYME DISEASE INFECTIVITY RATES IN VERTEBRATE HOSTS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS. (R824995)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

Geothermal Grows Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, William C.; Kraemer, Steven; Ormond, Paul

2011-01-01

Self-declared energy and carbon reduction goals on the part of progressive colleges and universities have driven ground source geothermal space heating and cooling systems into rapid evolution, as part of long-term climate action planning efforts. The period of single-building or single-well solutions is quickly being eclipsed by highly engineered…

77 FR 60478 - Proposal Review Panel for Computing Communication Foundations; Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-03

... assess the progress of the EIC Award: 1029711, ``Collaborative Research: Mining Climate and Ecosystem Data'', and to provide advice and recommendations concerning further NSF support for the Center. AGENDA... answer sessions. 1 p.m.-8 p.m. Closed Draft report on education and research activities. Wednesday...

77 FR 61032 - Proposal Review Panel for Computing Communication Foundations: Notice of Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-05

.... Purpose of Meeting: To assess the progress of the EIC Award: 1029711, ``Collaborative Research: Mining Climate and Ecosystem Data'', and to provide advise and recommendations concerning further NSF support for... education and research activities. Wednesday, October 17, 2012 8:30 a.m.-noon Open--Response presentations...