Evaluation of Authentic Science Projects on Climate Change in Secondary Schools: A Focus on Gender Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dijkstra, Elma; Goedhart, Martin

2011-01-01

Background and purpose: This study examines secondary-school students' opinions on participating in authentic science projects which are part of an international EU project on climate change research in seven countries. Partnerships between schools and research institutes result in student projects, in which students work with and learn from…

High Achievers from Low Socioeconomic Backgrounds: The Critical Role of Disciplinary Climate and Grit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Haigen; Zhu, Hao

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether school disciplinary climate and grit predicted low socioeconomic status (SES) students being high achievers in mathematics and science with a representative sample of 15-year-old students in the United States. Our analysis, using a two-level logistic hierarchical linear model (HLM), indicated both…

Responses to salinity in invasive cordgrass hybrids and their parental species (Spartina) in a scenario of sea level rise and climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Salinity is one of the main abiotic factors in salt marshes. Studies rooted to analyzed salinity tolerance of halophytes may help to relate their physiological tolerances with distribution limits in the field. Climate change-induced sea level rise and higher temperatures...

Interdisciplinary study of atmospheric processes and constituents of the mid-Atlantic coastal region. Attachment 4: Data set for background investigation of atmospheric constituents for Nansemond River site. [a proposed oil refinery site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kindle, E. C.; Bandy, E. C.; Copeland, G.; Blais, R.; Levy, G.; Sonenshine, D.; Adams, D.; Maier, G.

1975-01-01

Background data was provided for the assessment of the environmental impact of a proposed oil refinery location. Climatic background, particulate data, digitized portrayal of site molecular and meteorological data, graphical portrayal of molecular data, hourly meteorological data, and streamflow charts and radiosonde data are given

Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program facilities newsletter, March 2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sisterson, D. L.

2000-04-03

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM Program) is sending a copy of the ARM Video, an education overview of their program. In the video you will see and hear ARM scientists describe the importance of studying climate and climate change. It also contains a tour of some ARM sites and a look at state-of-the-art meteorological instrumentation, along with background information about the radiation budget and the complexity of climate modeling. The video was produced by the US Department of Energy.

Climate Change: Good for Us?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oblak, Jackie

2000-01-01

Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

A Research Synthesis of the Associations between Socioeconomic Background, Inequality, School Climate, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berkowitz, Ruth; Moore, Hadass; Astor, Ron Avi; Benbenishty, Rami

2017-01-01

Educational researchers and practitioners assert that supportive school and classroom climates can positively influence the academic outcomes of students, thus potentially reducing academic achievement gaps between students and schools of different socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. Nonetheless, scientific evidence establishing directional…

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. PMID:24669859

Background sampling and transferability of species distribution model ensembles under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iturbide, Maialen; Bedia, Joaquín; Gutiérrez, José Manuel

2018-07-01

Species Distribution Models (SDMs) constitute an important tool to assist decision-making in environmental conservation and planning. A popular application of these models is the projection of species distributions under climate change conditions. Yet there are still a range of methodological SDM factors which limit the transferability of these models, contributing significantly to the overall uncertainty of the resulting projections. An important source of uncertainty often neglected in climate change studies comes from the use of background data (a.k.a. pseudo-absences) for model calibration. Here, we study the sensitivity to pseudo-absence sampling as a determinant factor for SDM stability and transferability under climate change conditions, focusing on European wide projections of Quercus robur as an illustrative case study. We explore the uncertainty in future projections derived from ten pseudo-absence realizations and three popular SDMs (GLM, Random Forest and MARS). The contribution of the pseudo-absence realization to the uncertainty was higher in peripheral regions and clearly differed among the tested SDMs in the whole study domain, being MARS the most sensitive - with projections differing up to a 40% for different realizations - and GLM the most stable. As a result we conclude that parsimonious SDMs are preferable in this context, avoiding complex methods (such as MARS) which may exhibit poor model transferability. Accounting for this new source of SDM-dependent uncertainty is crucial when forming multi-model ensembles to undertake climate change projections.

Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, H. S.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Wade, C., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Effects of the Bering Strait closure on AMOC and global climate under different background climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald A.; Han, Weiqing; Otto-Bliestner, Bette; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Rosenbloom, Nan

2015-03-01

Previous studies have suggested that the status of the Bering Strait may have a significant influence on global climate variability on centennial, millennial, and even longer time scales. Here we use multiple versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM, versions 2 and 3) to investigate the influence of the Bering Strait closure/opening on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and global mean climate under present-day, 15 thousand-year before present (kyr BP), and 112 kyr BP climate boundary conditions. Our results show that regardless of the version of the model used or the widely different background climates, the Bering Strait's closure produces a robust result of a strengthening of the AMOC, and an increase in the northward meridional heat transport in the Atlantic. As a consequence, the climate becomes warmer in the North Atlantic and the surrounding regions, but cooler in the North Pacific, leading to a seesaw-like climate change between these two basins. For the first time it is noted that the absence of the Bering Strait throughflow causes a slower motion of Arctic sea ice, a reduced upper ocean water exchange between the Arctic and North Atlantic, reduced sea ice export and less fresh water in the North Atlantic. These changes contribute positively to the increased upper ocean density there, thus strengthening the AMOC. Potentially these changes in the North Atlantic could have a significant effect on the ice sheets both upstream and downstream in ice age climate, and further influence global sea level changes.

Temperature-related sex allocation shifts in a recovering keystone species, Pinus palustris

Treesearch

Qinfeng Guo; Dale G. Brockway; Xiongwen Chen

2017-01-01

Background : The possible effects of climate change on sex allocation of a species have recently emerged as a topic of interest, relative to population sustainability via natural regeneration. Also, the universality of pollen limitation for reproduction and how climate may in fl uence it in different taxonomic groups remain to be explored. Aims : The aim of this study...

Teaching citizens: the role of open classroom climate in fostering critical consciousness among youth.

PubMed

Godfrey, Erin B; Grayman, Justina Kamiel

2014-11-01

Building on previous research on critical consciousness and civic development among youth, the current study examined the extent to which an open climate for discussion-one in which controversial issues are openly discussed with respect for all opinions-relates to youth's critical consciousness and whether this association differs for youth from racial/ethnic majority versus minority backgrounds. Critical consciousness consisted of three components: the ability to critically read social conditions (critical reflection), feelings of efficacy to effect change (sociopolitical efficacy) and actual participation in these efforts (critical action), in both the educational and political/community domains. Open classroom climate was operationalized at the classroom rather than individual student level to more accurately draw links to educational policy and practice. Multilevel analyses of the 1999 IEA Civic Education Study, a nationally-representative sample of 2,774 US ninth-graders (50 % female; 58 % white), revealed that an open classroom climate predicted some, but not all, components of critical consciousness. Specifically, open classroom climate was positively related to sociopolitical efficacy in both the educational and political domains and to critical action in the community domain, but was not related to critical reflection. Few differences in these associations were found for youth from racial/ethnic majority versus minority backgrounds. The exception was sociopolitical efficacy in the educational domain: open classroom climate was particularly predictive of sociopolitical efficacy for minority youth. The findings are discussed in regard to previous research on open classroom climate and youth critical consciousness; and implications for future research and educational practice are drawn.

Community Background Reports: Second Mesa Day School; Hopi-Mishongnovi, Shipaulovi, Shungopavy Villages and Sunlight Baptist Mission. National Study of American Indian Education, Series I, No. 12, Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kabotie, Michael; And Others

As part of the National Study of American Indian Education, this paper is a community and educational background report of the Hopi villages found on Second Mesa, Arizona. The report includes location and climate of the villages, village structure, population, economic factors, social and political structure, dress, transportation, and recent…

Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

2013-04-01

The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory data analysis the approaches on climate time series, trend analysis and extreme events analysis are explained. Tools to describe relations within the data sets and significance tests further corroborate this. Within the weekly exercises that have to be prepared at home, the students work with self-selected climate data sets and apply the learned methods. The presentation and discussion of intermediate results by the students is as much part of the exercises as the illustration of possible methodological procedures by the teacher using exemplary data sets. The total time expenditure of the course is 270 hours with 90 attendance hours. The remainder consists of individual studies, e.g., preparation of discussions and presentations, statistical data analysis, and scientific writing. Different forms of examination are applied including written or oral examination, scientific report, presentation and portfolio work.

A Climate Ready Estuaries Vulnerability Assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The purpose of the the Climate Ready Estuaries program is to build capacity in the National Estuary Programs (NEPs) for local leadership and expertise to adapt to the effects of climate change through a joint effort with the NEPs and EPA.

Background

Climate change impacts on human health over Europe through its effect on air quality.

PubMed

Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; O'Connor, Fiona M

2017-12-05

This review examines the current literature on the effects of future emissions and climate change on particulate matter (PM) and O 3 air quality and on the consequent health impacts, with a focus on Europe. There is considerable literature on the effects of climate change on O 3 but fewer studies on the effects of climate change on PM concentrations. Under the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th assessment report (AR5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), background O 3 entering Europe is expected to decrease under most scenarios due to higher water vapour concentrations in a warmer climate. However, under the extreme pathway RCP8.5 higher (more than double) methane (CH 4 ) abundances lead to increases in background O 3 that offset the O 3 decrease due to climate change especially for the 2100 period. Regionally, in polluted areas with high levels of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), elevated surface temperatures and humidities yield increases in surface O 3 - termed the O 3 climate penalty - especially in southern Europe. The O 3 response is larger for metrics that represent the higher end of the O 3 distribution, such as daily maximum O 3 . Future changes in PM concentrations due to climate change are much less certain, although several recent studies also suggest a PM climate penalty due to high temperatures and humidity and reduced precipitation in northern mid-latitude land regions in 2100.A larger number of studies have examined both future climate and emissions changes under the RCP scenarios. Under these pathways the impact of emission changes on air quality out to the 2050s will be larger than that due to climate change, because of large reductions in emissions of O 3 and PM pollutant precursor emissions and the more limited climate change response itself. Climate change will also affect climate extreme events such as heatwaves. Air pollution episodes are associated with stagnation events and sometimes heat waves. Air quality during the 2003 heatwave over Europe has been examined in numerous studies and mechanisms for enhancing O 3 have been identified.There are few studies on health effects associated with climate change impacts alone on air quality, but these report higher O 3 -related health burdens in polluted populated regions and greater PM 2.5 health burdens in these emission regions. Studies that examine the combined impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions change under the RCP scenarios report reductions in global and European premature O 3 -respiratory related and PM mortalities arising from the large decreases in precursor emissions. Under RCP 8.5 the large increase in CH 4 leads to global and European excess O 3 -respiratory related mortalities in 2100. For future health effects, besides uncertainty in future O 3 and particularly PM concentrations, there is also uncertainty in risk estimates such as effect modification by temperature on pollutant-response relationships and potential future adaptation that would alter exposure risk.

The Social Environment of Schools and Adolescent Nutrition: Associations between the School Nutrition Climate and Adolescents' Eating Behaviors and Body Mass Index

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cvjetan, Branko; Utter, Jennifer; Robinson, Elizabeth; Denny, Simon

2014-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the association between the school nutrition climate and students' eating behaviors and body mass index (BMI). Methods: Data were collected as part of Youth'07, a nationally representative health survey of high school students in New Zealand. Overall, 9107 randomly selected students from 96…

Current and future background ozone simulations for Mexico using a multi-scale regional climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, B. K.; Gonzalez Abraham, R.; Avise, J. C.; Chung, S. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Zhang, Y.; Guenther, A. B.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Duhl, T.; Streets, D. G.

2013-05-01

Global change will clearly have a significant impact on the environment. Among the concerns for future air quality in North America, intercontinental transport of pollution has become increasingly important. In this study, we examined the effect of projected changes in Asian emissions and emissions from lightning and wildfires to produce ozone background concentrations within Mexico and the continental US. This provides a basis for developing an understanding of North American background levels and how they may change in the future. Meteorological fields were downscaled from the results of the ECHAM5 global climate model using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Two nested domains were employed, one covering most of the Northern Hemisphere from eastern Asia to North America using 220 km grid cells (semi-hemispheric domain) and one covering the continental US and northern Mexico using 36 km grid cells. Meteorological results from WRF were used to drive the MEGAN biogenic emissions model, the SMOKE emissions processing tool, and the CMAQ chemical transport model to predict ozone concentrations for current (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) summertime conditions. The MEGAN model was used to calculate biogenic emissions for all simulations. For the semi-hemispheric domain, year 2000 global emissions of gases (ozone precursors) from anthropogenic (outside of North America), natural, and biomass burning sources from the POET and EDGAR emission inventories were used. The global tabulation for black and organic carbon (BC and OC respectively) was obtained from Bond et al. (2004) For the future decade, the current emissions were projected to the year 2050 following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario. Anthropogenic emissions from the US, Canada, and Mexico were omitted so that only global background concentrations, and local biogenic, wildfire, and lightning emissions were treated. In this paper, we focus on background ozone levels in Mexico due to changes in future climate, local biogenic emissions and global emissions.

Team climate and attitudes toward information and communication technology among nurses on acute psychiatric wards.

PubMed

Koivunen, Marita; Anttila, Minna; Kuosmanen, Lauri; Katajisto, Jouko; Välimäki, Maritta

2015-01-01

Objectives: To describe the association of team climate with attitudes toward information and communication technology among nursing staff working on acute psychiatric wards. Background: Implementation of ICT applications in nursing practice brings new operating models to work environments, which may affect experienced team climate on hospital wards. Method: Descriptive survey was used as a study design. Team climate was measured by the Finnish modification of the Team Climate Inventory, and attitudes toward ICT by Burkes' questionnaire. The nursing staff (N = 181, n = 146) on nine acute psychiatric wards participated in the study. Results: It is not self-evident that experienced team climate associates with attitudes toward ICT, but there are some positive relationships between perceived team climate and ICT attitudes. The study showed that nurses' motivation to use ICT had statistically significant connections with experienced team climate, participative safety (p = 0.021), support for innovation (p = 0.042) and task orientation (p = 0.042). Conclusion: The results suggest that asserting team climate and supporting innovative operations may lead to more positive attitudes toward ICT. It is, in particular, possible to influence nurses' motivation to use ICT. More attention should be paid to psychosocial factors such as group education and co-operation at work when ICT applications are implemented in nursing.

Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority climate change adaptation pilot project report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

This Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project Report details the project background of the recently-completed Los Angeles County : Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) Transit Climate Change Adaptation Pilot Project as well as the various wor...

Navigating a Transdisciplinary Research Project with a Non-Traditional Academic Background: Climate Change, Soil Health and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basche, A.

2014-12-01

The Climate and Corn-based Cropping Systems Coordinated Agriculture Project (CSCAP) is a collaboration of 150+ team members spanning a range of scientific disciplinary backgrounds. The project goal is to produce collaborative research, education and extension aimed at mitigating and adapting Midwest cropping systems to climate variability and change. My PhD work in Agronomy and Sustainable Agriculture is a part of the CSCAP although my prior academic background was in applied climate science and biology, thus proposing a potential challenge to the new academic landscape. Further, graduate students within CSCAP are a part of a natural experiment in how the next generation of scientists operates in a transdisciplinary environment. As part of my leadership in the CSCAP, I helped to develop a "roadmap" document outlining the learning opportunities available to students. This document was meant to underscore the skills and experiences that will aid us in future collaborative research projects. Through these leadership experiences, I believe that the underpinning of any successful collaborative research project requires time: to develop relationships, earn trust and develop shared understandings and respect for different academic backgrounds.

Snowshoe hares display limited phenotypic plasticity to mismatch in seasonal camouflage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L. Scott; Lukacs, Paul M.; Mitchell, Michael S.

2014-01-01

As duration of snow cover decreases owing to climate change, species undergoing seasonal colour moults can become colour mismatched with their background. The immediate adaptive solution to this mismatch is phenotypic plasticity, either in phenology of seasonal colour moults or in behaviours that reduce mismatch or its consequences. We observed nearly 200 snowshoe hares across a wide range of snow conditions and two study sites in Montana, USA, and found minimal plasticity in response to mismatch between coat colour and background. We found that moult phenology varied between study sites, likely due to differences in photoperiod and climate, but was largely fixed within study sites with only minimal plasticity to snow conditions during the spring white-to-brown moult. We also found no evidence that hares modify their behaviour in response to colour mismatch. Hiding and fleeing behaviours and resting spot preference of hares were more affected by variables related to season, site and concealment by vegetation, than by colour mismatch. We conclude that plasticity in moult phenology and behaviours in snowshoe hares is insufficient for adaptation to camouflage mismatch, suggesting that any future adaptation to climate change will require natural selection on moult phenology or behaviour.

THE REGRESSION MODEL OF IRAN LIBRARIES ORGANIZATIONAL CLIMATE

PubMed Central

Jahani, Mohammad Ali; Yaminfirooz, Mousa; Siamian, Hasan

2015-01-01

Background: The purpose of this study was to drawing a regression model of organizational climate of central libraries of Iran’s universities. Methods: This study is an applied research. The statistical population of this study consisted of 96 employees of the central libraries of Iran’s public universities selected among the 117 universities affiliated to the Ministry of Health by Stratified Sampling method (510 people). Climate Qual localized questionnaire was used as research tools. For predicting the organizational climate pattern of the libraries is used from the multivariate linear regression and track diagram. Results: of the 9 variables affecting organizational climate, 5 variables of innovation, teamwork, customer service, psychological safety and deep diversity play a major role in prediction of the organizational climate of Iran’s libraries. The results also indicate that each of these variables with different coefficient have the power to predict organizational climate but the climate score of psychological safety (0.94) plays a very crucial role in predicting the organizational climate. Track diagram showed that five variables of teamwork, customer service, psychological safety, deep diversity and innovation directly effects on the organizational climate variable that contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables. Conclusions: Of the indicator of the organizational climate of climateQual, the contribution of the team work from this influence is more than any other variables that reinforcement of teamwork in academic libraries can be more effective in improving the organizational climate of this type libraries. PMID:26622203

The Association of School Climate, Depression Literacy, and Mental Health Stigma among High School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Townsend, Lisa; Musci, Rashelle; Stuart, Elizabeth; Ruble, Anne; Beaudry, Mary B.; Schweizer, Barbara; Owen, Megan; Goode, Carly; Johnson, Sarah L.; Bradshaw, Catherine; Wilcox, Holly; Swartz, Karen

2017-01-01

Background: Although school climate is linked with youth educational, socioemotional, behavioral, and health outcomes, there has been limited research on the association between school climate and mental health education efforts. We explored whether school climate was associated with students' depression literacy and mental health stigma beliefs.…

A Professional Development Climate Course for Sustainable Agriculture in Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, David; Clewett, Jeff; Birch, Colin; Wright, Anthony; Allen, Wendy

2009-01-01

There are few professional development courses in Australia for the rural sector concerned with climate variability, climate change and sustainable agriculture. The lack of educators with a sound technical background in climate science and its applications in agriculture prevents the delivery of courses either stand-alone or embedded in other…

Contributions to Future Stratospheric Climate Change: An Idealized Chemistry-Climate Model Sensitivity Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

2010-01-01

Within the framework of an idealized model sensitivity study, three of the main contributors to future stratospheric climate change are evaluated: increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone recovery, and changing sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These three contributors are explored in combination and separately, to test the interactions between ozone and climate; the linearity of their contributions to stratospheric climate change is also assessed. In a simplified chemistry-climate model, stratospheric global mean temperature is most sensitive to CO2 doubling, followed by ozone depletion, then by increased SSTs. At polar latitudes, the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere is more sensitive to changes in CO2, SSTs and O3 than is the Southern Hemisphere (SH); the opposing responses to ozone depletion under low or high background CO2 concentrations, as seen with present-day SSTs, are much weaker and are not statistically significant under enhanced SSTs. Consistent with previous studies, the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation is found to increase in an idealized future climate; SSTs contribute most to this increase in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region, while CO2 and ozone changes contribute most in the stratosphere and mesosphere.

A Statistical Bias Correction Tool for Generating Climate Change Scenarios in Indonesia based on CMIP5 Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faqih, A.

2017-03-01

Providing information regarding future climate scenarios is very important in climate change study. The climate scenario can be used as basic information to support adaptation and mitigation studies. In order to deliver future climate scenarios over specific region, baseline and projection data from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) is needed. However, due to its coarse resolution, the data have to be downscaled and bias corrected in order to get scenario data with better spatial resolution that match the characteristics of the observed data. Generating this downscaled data is mostly difficult for scientist who do not have specific background, experience and skill in dealing with the complex data from the GCM outputs. In this regards, it is necessary to develop a tool that can be used to simplify the downscaling processes in order to help scientist, especially in Indonesia, for generating future climate scenario data that can be used for their climate change-related studies. In this paper, we introduce a tool called as “Statistical Bias Correction for Climate Scenarios (SiBiaS)”. The tool is specially designed to facilitate the use of CMIP5 GCM data outputs and process their statistical bias corrections relative to the reference data from observations. It is prepared for supporting capacity building in climate modeling in Indonesia as part of the Indonesia 3rd National Communication (TNC) project activities.

Results of a community-based survey of construction safety climate for Hispanic workers

PubMed Central

Marin, Luz S; Cifuentes, Manuel; Roelofs, Cora

2015-01-01

Background: Hispanic construction workers experience high rates of occupational injury, likely influenced by individual, organizational, and social factors. Objectives: To characterize the safety climate of Hispanic construction workers using worker, contractor, and supervisor perceptions of the workplace. Methods: We developed a 40-item interviewer-assisted survey with six safety climate dimensions and administered it in Spanish and English to construction workers, contractors, and supervisors. A safety climate model, comparing responses and assessing contributing factors was created based on survey responses. Results: While contractors and construction supervisors’ (n = 128) scores were higher, all respondents shared a negative perception of safety climate. Construction workers had statistically significantly lower safety climate scores compared to supervisors and contractors (30.6 vs 46.5%, P<0.05). Safety climate scores were not associated with English language ability or years lived in the United States. Conclusions: We found that Hispanic construction workers in this study experienced a poor safety climate. The Hispanic construction safety climate model we propose can serve as a framework to guide organizational safety interventions and evaluate safety climate improvements. PMID:26145454

Regional Morphology Analysis Package (RMAP): Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis, Background and Examples

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-01

1984. Complex principal component analysis : Theory and examples. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 1660-1673. Hotelling, H. 1933...Sediments 99. ASCE: 2,566-2,581. Von Storch, H., and A. Navarra. 1995. Analysis of climate variability. Applications of statistical techniques. Berlin...ERDC TN-SWWRP-07-9 October 2007 Regional Morphology Empirical Analysis Package (RMAP): Orthogonal Function Analysis , Background and Examples by

Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

PubMed Central

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe. PMID:25452694

Multilevel Factor Structure and Concurrent Validity of the Teacher Version of the Authoritative School Climate Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Francis L.; Cornell, Dewey G.; Konold, Timothy; Meyer, Joseph P.; Lacey, Anna; Nekvasil, Erin K.; Heilbrun, Anna; Shukla, Kathan D.

2015-01-01

Background: School climate is well recognized as an important influence on student behavior and adjustment to school, but there is a need for theory-guided measures that make use of teacher perspectives. Authoritative school climate theory hypothesizes that a positive school climate is characterized by high levels of disciplinary structure and…

Greenhouse Gas-ette Fall 1988, Spring, Fall 1989, Winter, Spring, Fall 1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhouse Gas-ette, 1990

1990-01-01

This newsletter is for educators interested in developing lessons related to global climate change. The newsletter contains sample lessons, news items involving global climate change on an international scale, and background information on issues related to global climate change. (CW)

Climate Action Benefits: Electricity

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between electricity and climate change and describes what the CIRA Electricity analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Electricity Demand and Electricity Supply.

Background Ozone in Southern China During 1994-2015: Role of Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Zhang, L.; Poon, S.

2016-12-01

Tropospheric ozone plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Changes in background ozone concentrations and underlying causes are therefore of great interest to the scientific community and governments. Compared with North America and Europe, long-term measurements of background ozone in China are scarce. This study reports the longest continuous ozone record in southern China measured at a background site (Hok Tsui) in Hong Kong during 1994-2015. The analysis of the 22-year record shows that the surface ozone in the background atmosphere of southern China has been increasing, with an overall Theil-Sen estimated rate of 0.43 ppbv/yr. Compared with our previous results during 1994-2007 (Wang et al., 2009), the average rate of increase has slowed down over during 2008-2015 (0.32 vs. 0.58 ppbv/yr), possibly due to smaller increase or even decrease in ozone precursors emission in mainland China in recent years. The average rates of change show significant seasonal differences with the largest rate occurring in summer (0.32, 0.55, 0.52, and 0.36 ppbv/yr in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively). Monthly mean ozone concentrations at Hok Tsui are compared against an East Asian Monsoon index. It is found that only the summer-time ozone over period 2008-2015 has a strong positive correlation with the index, suggesting that climate might have played an important role in driving the ozone increase observed in summer since 2008. The ozone trend in Hong Kong will be compared to those from other regions in East Asia, and the role of emission changes in Asia will be discussed.

Strong contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of urban green vegetation.

PubMed

Yu, Zhaowu; Xu, Shaobin; Zhang, Yuhan; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Vejre, Henrik

2018-05-01

Utilization of urban green vegetation (UGV) has been recognized as a promising option to mitigate urban heat island (UHI) effect. While we still lack understanding of the contributions of local background climate to the cooling effect of UGV. Here we proposed and employed a cooling effect framework and selected eight typical cities located in Temperate Monsoon Climate (TMC) and Mediterranean Climate (MC) demonstrate that local climate condition largely affects the cooling effect of UGV. Specifically, we found increasing (artificial) rainfall and irrigation contribute to improving the cooling intensity of grassland in both climates, particularly in the hot-dry environment. The cities with high relative humidity would restrict the cooling effect of UGV. Increasing wind speed would significantly enhance the tree-covered while weakening the grass-covered UGVs' cooling effect in MC cities. We also identified that, in order to achieve the most effective cooling with the smallest sized tree-covered UGV, the area of trees in both climate zones' cities should generally be planned around 0.5 ha. The method and results enhance understanding of the cooling effect of UGVs on larger (climate) scales and provide important insights for UGV planning and management.

Reconstruction of climate, soil, and vegetation conditions of the Srubnaya cultural epoch on the basis of kurgan studies in the Cis-Ural forest-steppe of the Republic of Bashkortostan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prikhod'ko, V. E.; Rohozin, Ye. P.; Chaplygin, M. S.

2016-09-01

The reconstruction of soil, vegetation, and climatic conditions for the Srubnaya cultural epoch (3660 ± 40 (date wood), 3860 ± 120 (bones date) was performed on the basis of palynological and paleosol studies with radiocarbon dating of bones and wood fragments from two kurgans in the Cis-Ural forest-steppe of the Republic of Bashkortostan. Morphological features and chemical properties of the modern background soils, the soils formed on the surface of burial mounds (kurgans), and the soils buried under them were characterized. According to palynological data, the climate of this territory in the period of construction of these kurgans was more humid than the modern climate. The paleovegetation of the Srubnaya epoch was represented by mesophilic herbaceous steppes with a lower participation of xerophytic species as compared to the modern steppe and by small forest groves composed of birch and pine trees with some admixture of lime trees. The temperature conditions were close to those at present, or somewhat cooler, which is evidenced by the lower content of pollen of the broadleaved trees. The modern background soils and the soils buried under the kurgans are classified as thin light loamy typical calcareous chernozems; they have similar morphologies and physicochemical properties. However, the reconstructed organic matter content in the upper 50 cm of the buried paleosols is higher than that in the modern soils. This attests to more favorable climatic conditions during the Srubnaya epoch and is in agreement with palynological data.

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Measuring School Climate: An Overview of Measurement Scales

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohl, Diane; Recchia, Sophie; Steffgen, Georges

2013-01-01

Background: School climate is a heterogeneous concept with a multitude of standardised and validated instruments available to measure it. Purpose: This overview of measurement scales aims to provide researchers with short summaries of some of the self-report instruments in existence, especially in relation to the link between school climate and…

Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014, El Niño Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrat...

Climate Action Benefits: Infrastructure

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between infrastructure and climate change and describes what the CIRA Infrastructure analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Bridges, Roads, Urban Drainage, and Coastal Property.

Studying Weather and Climate Extremes in a Non-stationary Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Z.

2010-12-01

The study of weather and climate extremes often uses the theory of extreme values. Such a detection method has a major problem: to obtain the probability distribution of extremes, one has to implicitly assume the Earth’s climate is stationary over a long period within which the climatology is defined. While such detection makes some sense in a purely statistical view of stationary processes, it can lead to misleading statistical properties of weather and climate extremes caused by long term climate variability and change, and may also cause enormous difficulty in attributing and predicting these extremes. To alleviate this problem, here we report a novel non-stationary framework for studying weather and climate extremes in a non-stationary framework. In this new framework, the weather and climate extremes will be defined as timescale-dependent quantities derived from the anomalies with respect to non-stationary climatologies of different timescales. With this non-stationary framework, the non-stationary and nonlinear nature of climate system will be taken into account; and the attribution and the prediction of weather and climate extremes can then be separated into 1) the change of the statistical properties of the weather and climate extremes themselves and 2) the background climate variability and change. The new non-stationary framework will use the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method, which is a recent major improvement of the Hilbert-Huang Transform for time-frequency analysis. Using this tool, we will adaptively decompose various weather and climate data from observation and climate models in terms of the components of the various natural timescales contained in the data. With such decompositions, the non-stationary statistical properties (both spatial and temporal) of weather and climate anomalies and of their corresponding climatologies will be analyzed and documented.

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada.

PubMed

Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2017-02-01

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late-successional conifers to early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age-dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age-dependent succession, the relative abundances of early-successional deciduous broadleaves and early-successional conifers have increased at the expense of late-successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO 2 promoted early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early-successional conifers at the expense of late-successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO 2 and warming will continue in the 21st century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion: STS Issues for Social Studies Classrooms.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rye, James A.; Strong, Donna D.; Rubba, Peter A.

2001-01-01

Explores the inclusion of science-technology-society (STS) education in social studies. Provides background information on global warming and the depletion of the ozone layer. Focuses on reasons for teaching global climate change in the social studies classroom and includes teaching suggestions. Offers a list of Web sites about global climate…

A Motivational Analysis of a Season of Sport Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sinelnikov, Oleg A.; Hastie, Peter

2010-01-01

Background: The Sport Education curriculum model with its goals to develop competent, literate and enthusiastic sportspersons has been gaining popularity across the globe. To date, studies have yet to investigate the objective motivational climate of Sport Education. Aims: The purpose of this study was to measure and describe the objective…

Climate Action Benefits: Ecosystems

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between ecosystems and climate change and describes what the CIRA Ecosystems analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Coral Reefs, Shellfish, Freshwater Fish, Wildfire, and Carbon Storage.

Climate Action Benefits: Health

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between human health and climate change and describes what the CIRA Health analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Air Quality, Extreme Temperature, Labor, and Water Quality.

A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

PubMed

Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice

2016-01-01

Background The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students' perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Methods Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). Results The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. Conclusion The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students' interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students' intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate.

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate Action Benefits: Water Resources

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between water resources and climate change and describes what the CIRA Water Resources analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Inland Flooding, Drought, and Supply and Demand.

Understanding Climate Change Perceptions, Attitudes, and Needs of Forest Service Resource Managers

Treesearch

Carlos Rodriguez-Franco; Tara J. Haan

2015-01-01

Surveys were collected to assess Forest Service (FS) resource managers' perceptions, attitudes, and informational needs related to climate change and its potential impacts on forests and grasslands. Resource managers with three background types were surveyed. All participants generally considered themselves to be well-informed on climate change issues, although...

AMS Climate Studies: Improving climate literacy through undergraduate education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Moran, J. M.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Blair, B. A.; Hopkins, E. J.; Kiley, T. P., Jr.; Ruwe, E. E.

2009-12-01

In working to promote scientific literacy among the public, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) has produced a suite of introductory college-level courses that engage students by investigating relevant topics in Earth science, and utilizing the most current, real-world environmental data. The newest of these courses, AMS Climate Studies, is a turnkey package which will be licensed by individual colleges for local offering in online, blended, or traditional lecture/lab settings. The course will place students in a dynamic learning environment where they will investigate Earth’s climate system using real-world data. This will allow the course to keep a strong focus on the science, while still addressing many of the societal impacts that draw the attention of today’s students. In this way, the course will serve as a great primer in preparing students to become responsible, scientifically-literate participants in discussions of climate science and climate change. Developed with major support from NASA, AMS Climate Studies will encourage students to investigate the atmosphere and world ocean as components of a larger Earth system. More than 500 colleges and universities throughout the United States have already offered AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies, after which AMS Climate Studies will be modeled. The learning system will consist of a fully-integrated set of printed and online learning materials focused around a brand new, hardcover 15-chapter textbook, Climate Studies: Introduction to Climate Science and an Investigations Manual with 30 lab-style activities that will emphasize the use of authentic science data. The package will also include a course website providing weekly Current Climate Studies activities along with access to environmental data streams, including an impressive suite of NASA and NOAA images and products. The development and testing of AMS Climate Studies is currently nearing completion. A number of college and university professors have been selected to pilot the program in Spring 2010, with major emphasis placed on representing a diverse array of institution types, degree programs, course delivery methods, academic backgrounds, etc. The materials will be vigorously tested and updated accordingly. AMS Climate Studies will be available for implementation at your institution beginning Fall 2010.

Considerations for forest adaptation to climate change in sustainable production of wood/fiber/biomass and ecosystem services

Treesearch

Roger A. Sedjo

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect forests into the future. Although forests have an inherent resiliency that allows them to adapt to various disturbances, including past climate change, concerns are expressed that the rate of change of current and future climate may be more rapid than the ability of many forests to adapt. This paper examines the background of forest...

Asian American women in science, engineering, and mathematics: Background contextual and college environment influences on self-efficacy and academic achievement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Kristen E.

2005-07-01

The purpose of this research study was to examine, for undergraduate women of various Asian American ethnic backgrounds, the influence of background contextual and college environment factors on their sense of academic self-efficacy and achievement in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) majors. Social cognitive career theory and its critiques provided a theoretical foundation for relationships from past performance, socioeconomic status, acculturation, and college environment variables (compositional diversity, racial climate, gendered climate, academic peer support), to academic self-efficacy and achievement. Data were collected through an online survey. Instrumentation included the scales of Language, Identity, and Behavioral Acculturation; Gender Discrimination; Faculty and Classroom Behavior; Interactions with Peers; and Academic Milestones Self-efficacy. The participants were 228 Asian American undergraduate women in STEM at a large public, doctoral research extensive university on the east coast; the response rate was 51%. In three MANOVAs for nine social cognitive career variables, four ethnic groups (East, South, Southeast, and Multi-ethnic Asian American) significantly differed only on socioeconomic status. In path analysis, the initial model was not a good fit and was rejected. The model was respecified through statistical and theoretical evaluation, tested in exploratory analysis, and considered a good fit. The respecified model explained 36% of semester GPA (achievement) and 28% of academic self-efficacy. The academic achievement of Asian American women in STEM was related to past performance, background contextual factors, academic self-efficacy, academic peer support, and gendered climate. The strongest direct influence on achievement was academic self-efficacy followed by past performance. The total effect of Asian acculturation on achievement was negative and the total effect of American acculturation on achievement was not significant; academic self-efficacy mediated these complex relationships. The total effects of racial and gendered compositional diversity and racial climate on both academic self-efficacy and achievement were not significant. Students in majors with more female peers reported less academic peer support. In this study, when culturally specific variables embellished social cognitive career theory, the theory exhibited cultural validity for undergraduate Asian American women in STEM. The nature of the relationships among culturally specific variables and college environment variables, however, requires further study.

Climate Action Benefits: Agriculture and Forestry

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page provides background on the relationship between agriculture, forestry, and climate change and describes what the CIRA Agriculture and Forestry analyses cover. It provides links to the subsectors Crop and Forest Yields and Market Impacts.

A wall-free climate unit for acoustic levitators.

PubMed

Schlegel, M C; Wenzel, K-J; Sarfraz, A; Panne, U; Emmerling, F

2012-05-01

Acoustic levitation represents the physical background of trapping a sample in a standing acoustic wave with no contact to the wave generating device. For the last three decades, sample holders based on this effect have been commonly used for contact free handling of samples coupled with a number of analytical techniques. In this study, a wall-free climate unit is presented, which allows the control of the environmental conditions of suspended samples. The insulation is based on a continuous cold/hot gas flow around the sample and thus does not require any additional isolation material. This provides a direct access to the levitated sample and circumvents any influence of the climate unit material to the running analyses.

A wall-free climate unit for acoustic levitators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, M. C.; Wenzel, K.-J.; Sarfraz, A.; Panne, U.; Emmerling, F.

2012-05-01

Acoustic levitation represents the physical background of trapping a sample in a standing acoustic wave with no contact to the wave generating device. For the last three decades, sample holders based on this effect have been commonly used for contact free handling of samples coupled with a number of analytical techniques. In this study, a wall-free climate unit is presented, which allows the control of the environmental conditions of suspended samples. The insulation is based on a continuous cold/hot gas flow around the sample and thus does not require any additional isolation material. This provides a direct access to the levitated sample and circumvents any influence of the climate unit material to the running analyses.

Communities, Students, Schools, and School Crime: A Confirmatory Study of Crime in U.S. High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Greg

2008-01-01

This study investigates how community characteristics, student background, school climate, and zero-tolerance policies interact to affect school crime. The study articulates and fits a school crime model to 712 high schools participating in the 2000 School Survey on Crime and Safety, confirming that school location and student socioeconomic status…

Facilitators to Promoting Health in Schools: Is School Health Climate the Key?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lucarelli, Jennifer F.; Alaimo, Katherine; Mang, Ellen; Martin, Caroline; Miles, Richard; Bailey, Deborah; Kelleher, Deanne K.; Drzal, Nicholas B.; Liu, Hui

2014-01-01

Background: Schools can promote healthy eating in adolescents. This study used a qualitative approach to examine barriers and facilitators to healthy eating in schools. Methods: Case studies were conducted with 8 low-income Michigan middle schools. Interviews were conducted with 1 administrator, the food service director, and 1 member of the…

A Multilevel Assessment of School Climate, Bullying Victimization, and Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roman, Caterina G.; Taylor, Caitlin J.

2013-01-01

Background: This study integrated criminological and public health perspectives to examine the influence of bullying victimization and the school environment on physical activity (PA). Methods: We used a weighted sample of 7786 US middle school students surveyed as part of the Health Behavior in School-Aged Children study to conduct a multilevel…

Contextualizing Relationship Education and Adolescent Attitude toward Sexual Behavior: Considering Class Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Sandra U.; Adler-Baeder, Francesca; Bub, Kristen L.; Duke, Adrienne

2018-01-01

Background: Using data from a statewide relationship education (RE) program targeting a diverse adolescent sample, this study examined RE implementation in classroom environments. Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore (1) whether there is a beneficial RE program effect for change in individual attitudes toward sexual delay, (2)…

Measuring School Climate in High Schools: A Focus on Safety, Engagement, and the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradshaw, Catherine P.; Waasdorp, Tracy E.; Debnam, Katrina J.; Johnson, Sarah Lindstrom

2014-01-01

Background: School climate has been linked to multiple student behavioral, academic, health, and social-emotional outcomes. The US Department of Education (USDOE) developed a 3-factor model of school climate comprised of safety, engagement, and environment. This article examines the factor structure and measurement invariance of the USDOE model.…

Relationships among Student, Staff, and Administrative Measures of School Climate and Student Health and Academic Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gase, Lauren N.; Gomez, Louis M.; Kuo, Tony; Glenn, Beth A.; Inkelas, Moira; Ponce, Ninez A.

2017-01-01

Background: School climate is an integral part of a comprehensive approach to improving the well-being of students; however, little is known about the relationships between its different domains and measures. We examined the relationships between student, staff, and administrative measures of school climate to understand the extent to which they…

The Impact of Transformational Leadership on Safety Climate and Individual Safety Behavior on Construction Sites.

PubMed

Shen, Yuzhong; Ju, Chuanjing; Koh, Tas Yong; Rowlinson, Steve; Bridge, Adrian J

2017-01-05

Unsafe acts contribute dominantly to construction accidents, and increasing safety behavior is essential to reduce accidents. Previous research conceptualized safety behavior as an interaction between proximal individual differences (safety knowledge and safety motivation) and distal contextual factors (leadership and safety climate). However, relatively little empirical research has examined this conceptualization in the construction sector. Given the cultural background of the sample, this study makes a slight modification to the conceptualization and views transformational leadership as an antecedent of safety climate. Accordingly, this study establishes a multiple mediator model showing the mechanisms through which transformational leadership translates into safety behavior. The multiple mediator model is estimated by the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique, using individual questionnaire responses from a random sample of construction personnel based in Hong Kong. As hypothesized, transformational leadership has a significant impact on safety climate which is mediated by safety-specific leader-member exchange (LMX), and safety climate in turn impacts safety behavior through safety knowledge. The results suggest that future safety climate interventions should be more effective if supervisors exhibit transformational leadership, encourage construction personnel to voice safety concerns without fear of retaliation, and repeatedly remind them about safety on the job.

The Impact of Transformational Leadership on Safety Climate and Individual Safety Behavior on Construction Sites

PubMed Central

Shen, Yuzhong; Ju, Chuanjing; Koh, Tas Yong; Rowlinson, Steve; Bridge, Adrian J.

2017-01-01

Unsafe acts contribute dominantly to construction accidents, and increasing safety behavior is essential to reduce accidents. Previous research conceptualized safety behavior as an interaction between proximal individual differences (safety knowledge and safety motivation) and distal contextual factors (leadership and safety climate). However, relatively little empirical research has examined this conceptualization in the construction sector. Given the cultural background of the sample, this study makes a slight modification to the conceptualization and views transformational leadership as an antecedent of safety climate. Accordingly, this study establishes a multiple mediator model showing the mechanisms through which transformational leadership translates into safety behavior. The multiple mediator model is estimated by the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique, using individual questionnaire responses from a random sample of construction personnel based in Hong Kong. As hypothesized, transformational leadership has a significant impact on safety climate which is mediated by safety-specific leader–member exchange (LMX), and safety climate in turn impacts safety behavior through safety knowledge. The results suggest that future safety climate interventions should be more effective if supervisors exhibit transformational leadership, encourage construction personnel to voice safety concerns without fear of retaliation, and repeatedly remind them about safety on the job. PMID:28067775

Morphometric traits capture the climatically driven species turnover of 10 spruce taxa across China.

PubMed

Li, He; Wang, GuoHong; Zhang, Yun; Zhang, WeiKang

2016-02-01

This study explored the relative roles of climate and phylogenetic background in driving morphometric trait variation in 10 spruce taxa in China. The study further addressed the hypothesis that these variations are consistent with species turnover on climatic gradients. Nine morphometric traits of leaves, seed cones, and seeds for the 10 studied spruce taxa were measured at 504 sites. These data were analyzed in combination with species DNA sequences from NCBI GenBank. We detected the effects of phylogeny and climate through trait-variation-based K statistics and phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) analyses. Multivariate analyses were performed to detect trait variation along climatic gradients with species replacement. The estimated K-values for the nine studied morphometric traits ranged from 0.19 to 0.68, and the studied environmental variables explained 39-83% of the total trait variation. Trait variation tended to be determined largely by a temperature gradient varying from wet-cool climates to dry-warm summers and, additionally, by a moisture gradient. As the climate became wetter and cooler, spruce species tended to be replaced by other spruces with smaller needle leaves and seeds but larger cones and seed scales. A regression analysis showed that spruce species tended to be successively replaced by other species, along the gradient, although the trends observed within species were not necessarily consistent with the overall trend. The climatically driven replacement of the spruces in question could be well indicated by the between-species variation in morphometric traits that carry lower phylogenetic signal. Between-species variation in these traits is driven primarily by climatic factors. These species demonstrate a narrower ecological amplitude in temperature but wider ranges on the moisture gradient.

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study.

PubMed

Hansen, Kaj M; Christensen, Jesper H; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-09-10

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

PubMed

Dodo, Mahamat K

2014-01-01

Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

Hospitals’ Readiness for Clinical Governance Implementation in Educational Hospitals of Yazd, Iran

PubMed Central

Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Sabahi, Ali Akbar; Montazeralfaraj, Razieh; Shamsi, Farimah; Ardekani, Samaneh Entezarian

2014-01-01

Background: Clinical governance is a systematic approach to maintaining and improving the quality of patient care. This study aimed to assess some Iranian educational hospitals’ readiness for clinical governance implementation through the organizational climate. Methods: It was a cross-sectional study that used the Clinical Governance Climate Questionnaire (CGCQ) in three educational hospitals in Yazd, a city in central Iran, in 2012. A total of 186 personnel contributed to the study. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Descriptive statistics and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for data analyses. Results: The mean scores of the clinical governance climate in Shahid Sadoughi, Shahid Rahnemoon and Afshar hospitals were 2.63±0.29, 2.58±0.32, and 2.68±0.29. The mean scores of quality improvement planning and change, quality improvement integration and motivation, clinical risk management and climate of blame and punishment, organizational learning, and training and development (T&D) opportunities for learning in the studied hospitals were 2.21±0.49, 2.80±0.40, 2.76±0.40, 2.91±0.54 and 3.06±0.72, respectively. Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the educational hospitals’ climate should be more supportive for successful implementation of clinical governance. PMID:25763148

Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handiani, D.; Paul, A.; Dupont, L.

2011-06-01

Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP) strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs) in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America. We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2) reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and Northern Tropical Africa as well as Northeast South America. However, our model did not agree well with predicted biome distributions in Eastern South America.

Climatic water balance and agricultural productivity dynamics in Dobrogea, southeastern Romania, against the background of climate change over the past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandoc, Georgeta; Pravalie, Remus

2015-04-01

Interdisciplinary analyses of the relationship between climate system dynamics and agricultural system variation are an essential component for increasing the efficiency of water resource management, and for adapting crops at local level. This paper analyzes the dynamics of the climate water balance (CWB) in the past five decades in Romania's most arid region, Dobrogea, against the background of climate change, as well as the statistical relationship between the variation of CWB values and that of regional agricultural systems. Thus, a first stage consisted in detailed climatic analyses of CWB value variation between 1961 and 2009, based on climatic data provided by 9 regional weather stations. The study mainly focused on CWB trends (mm) recorded annually and seasonally (winter, spring, summer and autumn), using statistical methods such as the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope method, as well as GIS methods in order to visualize the results. The second main stage was directed towards the analysis of the statistical relationship between the aforementioned climate indicator's dynamics and agricultural yields (t / ha / year) in the administrative-territorial units overlapping Dobrogea (generally the plateau region), while corn was considered for the case study as it is one of the region's main crops. In this instance, the agro-climatic data were analyzed / statistically correlated in the 1990-2003 period (depending on data availability for corn production output at administrative unit level), based on Thiessen-Voronoi polygons which were considered to be compact spatial units in which both data categories can be grouped in order to establish interannual relationships. In terms of climate, the results indicated an annual increase of the climatic water deficit at the stations located in the northern region of the study area, with maximum rates of -3.2 mm / year. In contrast, CWB values decreased seasonally (the climatic water deficit increased) roughly throughout Dobrogea (winter, spring and summer, with maximum negative rates of -1.4 mm / year in the warmest season), except for autumn, characterized by general increasing rates, with maximum values in the southwest (2.3 mm / year). However, a general trend overview indicated an overall lack of statistical significance. Considering the 1990-2003 time interval, the data analysis in the Thiessen polygons showed an overall similarity of agro-climatic oscillations, a first assessment of which indicated a general correlation between climate and agricultural data. However, upon analysis of the data series normality criterion, it was found that, during the 14 years, the CWB index variation influenced the dynamics of corn yields especially in the south-central region, in certain cases by up to 50%, causing losses of up to 11 kg / ha / year when the deficit increased by 1 mm. Therefore, while climatic results indicated CWB summer decreases (the most important season in corn productivity dynamics) in the northern region as well, the asymmetries found in agro-climatic data distributions in the northern region did not allow a statistical assessment of the dependence of agriculture on climatic conditions. Hence, for the northern region of the study area, the results indicate the role of additional factors in the dynamics of agricultural systems, which can be both natural (soil and groundwater characteristics) and anthropogenic (management conditions).

Understanding the Perception of Global Climate Change: Research into the Role of Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kundargi, R.; Gopal, S.; Tsay-Vogel, M.

2016-12-01

Here we present preliminary results for a novel study investigating the perception of climate change media, in relation to two pre-selected dimensions. We administer a questionnaire varying in two dimensions (spatial proximity and scientific literacy) to 155 mostly students in order to evaluate their emotional and cognitive reactions towards a series of video clips depicting the impacts of global climate change (GCC) events or the science behind global climate change. 19 videos were selected and vetted by experts for content and relevance to the subject matter. Our preliminary analysis indicate that the further away an event is perceived to be (spatial proximity) results in a lower uncertainty about the risks of GCC, lower self-efficacy to effect GCC, and lower personal responsibility to influence GCC. Furthermore, our results show that videos with a higher perceived background scientific knowledge requirement (scientific literacy) results in greater viewer engagement with the video. A full analysis and results of this study will be presented within the poster presentation.

Factors Affecting Turkish Students' Achievement in Mathematics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demir, Ibrahim; Kilic, Serpil; Depren, Ozer

2009-01-01

Following past researches, student background, learning strategies, self-related cognitions in mathematics and school climate variables were important for achievement. The purpose of this study was to identify a number of factors that represent the relationship among sets of interrelated variables using principal component factor analysis and…

Dust Storms in the United States are Associated with Increased Cardiovascular Mortality

EPA Science Inventory

Background: Extreme weather events such as dust storms are predicted to become more frequent as the global climate warms through the 21st century. Studies of Asian, Saharan, Arabian, and Australian dust storms have found associations with cardiovascular and total non-accidental...

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

Challenges in Identifying Sites Climatically Matched to the Native Ranges of Animal Invaders

PubMed Central

Rodda, Gordon H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Reed, Robert N.

2011-01-01

Background Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk. PMID:21347411

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodda, G.H.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Reed, R.N.

2011-01-01

Background: Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Methodology/Principal Findings: Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. Conclusions/Significance: When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Playing Fair: The Contribution of High-Functioning Recess to Overall School Climate in Low-Income Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

London, Rebecca A.; Westrich, Lisa; Stokes-Guinan, Katie; McLaughlin, Milbrey

2015-01-01

Background: Recess is a part of the elementary school day with strong implications for school climate. Positive school climate has been linked to a host of favorable student outcomes, from attendance to achievement. We examine 6 low-income elementary schools' experiences implementing a recess-based program designed to provide safe, healthy,…

A climate adaptation strategy for conservation and management of yellowcedar in Alaska

Treesearch

Paul E. Hennon; Carol M. McKenzie; David D' Amore; Dustin T. Wittwer; Robin L. Mulvey; Melinda S. Lamb; Frances E. Biles; Rich C. Cronn

2016-01-01

A conservation and management strategy for yellow-cedar in Alaska is presented in the context of climate change. This document has four sections. Section 1 covers the ecology and silvics of yellow-cedar, as well as other background information. Section 2 outlines knowledge on the extensive mortality to yellow-cedar, including the role of climate. Section 3 describes...

Bird banding and climate change: can we make a difference?

Treesearch

C. John Ralph; Jared D. Wolfe

2014-01-01

So how does your banding effort fit into the new paradigm of climate science? A little background: many bird populations underwent mass declines during the 19th century from a variety of causes including hunting and habitat change. Current human-induced climate change represents a new and fast-acting pressure that is inherently more difficult to curtail and may drive...

Write More Articles, Get More Grants: The Impact of Department Climate on Faculty Research Productivity

PubMed Central

Savoy, Julia N.; Kaatz, Anna; Lee, You-Geon; Filut, Amarette; Carnes, Molly

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Many studies find that female faculty in academic medicine, science, and engineering experience adverse workplace climates. This study longitudinally investigates whether department climate is associated with future research productivity and whether the associations are stronger for female than male faculty. Method: Two waves of a faculty climate survey, institutional grant records, and publication records were collected for 789 faculties in academic medicine, science, and engineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison between 2000 and 2010. Research productivity was measured as Number of Publications and Number of Grants awarded, and department climate was measured with scales for professional interactions, department decision-making practices, climate for underrepresented groups, and work/life balance. Ordinary least squares and negative binomial regression methods were used to assess gender differences in productivity, influences of department climate on productivity, and gender differences in effects of climate on productivity. Results: Female faculty published fewer articles and were awarded fewer grants in the baseline period, but their productivity did not differ from male faculty on these measures in subsequent years. Number of Publications was positively affected by professional interactions, but negatively affected by positive work/life balance. Number of Grants awarded was positively affected by climate for underrepresented groups. These main effects did not differ by gender; however, some three-way interactions illuminated how different aspects of department climate affected productivity differently for men and women in specific situations. Conclusions: In perhaps the first study to assess the longitudinal impact of department climate on faculty research productivity, positive department climate is associated with significantly greater productivity for all faculty—women and men. However, some positive aspects of climate (specifically, work/life balance) may be associated with lower productivity for some female faculty at specific career periods. These findings suggest that departments that wish to increase grants and publications would be wise to foster a positive workplace climate. PMID:28375751

Helping Students Understand Their Learning Styles: Effects on Study Self-Efficacy, Preference for Group Work, and Group Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hendry, Graham D.; Heinrich, Paul; Lyon, Patricia M.; Barratt, Alexandra L.; Simpson, Judy M.; Hyde, Sarah J.; Gonsalkorale, Shalinie; Hyde, Michelle; Mgaieth, Sara

2005-01-01

Small tutorial groups in higher education are often composed without regard to students' gender or broad knowledge background, for example, yet research indicates that composing groups on the basis of gender and prior qualifications may have significant effects on assessment outcomes. Previous studies have also investigated the effects of…

Children's Human Rights Education as a Counter to Social Disadvantage: A Case Study from England

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Covell, Katherine; Howe, R. Brian; Polegato, Jillian L.

2011-01-01

Background: Children's rights education in schools has many social and educational benefits. Among them are a deeper understanding of rights and social responsibility, an improved school climate, and greater school engagement and achievement. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to assess whether children's rights education has the power to…

Climate Change and Spatiotemporal Distributions of Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal – A Systematic Synthesis of Literature

PubMed Central

Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich

2015-01-01

Background Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. Methodology A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Conclusion Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant. PMID:26086887

Validating a work group climate assessment tool for improving the performance of public health organizations

PubMed Central

Perry, Cary; LeMay, Nancy; Rodway, Greg; Tracy, Allison; Galer, Joan

2005-01-01

Background This article describes the validation of an instrument to measure work group climate in public health organizations in developing countries. The instrument, the Work Group Climate Assessment Tool (WCA), was applied in Brazil, Mozambique, and Guinea to assess the intermediate outcomes of a program to develop leadership for performance improvement. Data were collected from 305 individuals in 42 work groups, who completed a self-administered questionnaire. Methods The WCA was initially validated using Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficient and exploratory factor analysis. This article presents the results of a second validation study to refine the initial analyses to account for nested data, to provide item-level psychometrics, and to establish construct validity. Analyses included eigenvalue decomposition analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and validity and reliability analyses. Results This study confirmed the validity and reliability of the WCA across work groups with different demographic characteristics (gender, education, management level, and geographical location). The study showed that there is agreement between the theoretical construct of work climate and the items in the WCA tool across different populations. The WCA captures a single perception of climate rather than individual sub-scales of clarity, support, and challenge. Conclusion The WCA is useful for comparing the climates of different work groups, tracking the changes in climate in a single work group over time, or examining differences among individuals' perceptions of their work group climate. Application of the WCA before and after a leadership development process can help work groups hold a discussion about current climate and select a target for improvement. The WCA provides work groups with a tool to take ownership of their own group climate through a process that is simple and objective and that protects individual confidentiality. PMID:16223447

Positive School Climate Is Associated With Lower Body Mass Index Percentile Among Urban Preadolescents

PubMed Central

Gilstad-Hayden, Kathryn; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Rosenthal, Lisa; Peters, Susan M.; McCaslin, Catherine; Ickovics, Jeannette R.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND Schools are an important environmental context in children’s lives and are part of the complex web of factors that contribute to childhood obesity. Increasingly, attention has been placed on the importance of school climate (connectedness, academic standards, engagement, and student autonomy) as 1 domain of school environment beyond health policies and education that may have implications for student health outcomes. The purpose of this study is to examine the association of school climate with body mass index (BMI) among urban preadolescents. METHODS Health surveys and physical measures were collected among fifth- and sixth-grade students from 12 randomly selected public schools in a small New England city. School climate surveys were completed district-wide by students and teachers. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to test the association between students’ BMI and schools’ climate scores. RESULTS After controlling for potentially confounding individual-level characteristics, a 1-unit increase in school climate score (indicating more positive climate) was associated with a 7-point decrease in students’ BMI percentile. CONCLUSIONS Positive school climate is associated with lower student BMI percentile. More research is needed to understand the mechanisms behind this relationship and to explore whether interventions promoting positive school climate can effectively prevent and/or reduce obesity. PMID:25040118

Ecology of Missouri Forests. Instructional Unit. Conservation Education Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Jim

This unit is designed to help science, social studies, vocational agriculture, and other teachers incorporate forest ecology concepts into their subject matter. The unit includes: (1) topic outline; (2) unit objectives; (3) background information on climate and soils, levels of a deciduous forest, age classes, food and energy relationships, forest…

The Relation between Cognitive and Metacognitive Strategic Processing during a Science Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Zoellner, Brian P.

2018-01-01

Background: This investigation was designed to uncover the relations between students' cognitive and metacognitive strategies used during a complex climate simulation. While cognitive strategy use during science inquiry has been studied, the factors related to this strategy use, such as concurrent metacognition, prior knowledge, and prior…

Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Climate, ambient air quality, and noise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lombardi, D.A.; Blasing, T.J.; Easterly, C.E.

1995-03-01

This report has been prepared to make available and archive background scientific data and related information on climate, ambient air quality, and ambient noise levels collected during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated.more » The report presents a general description of the climate add air quality for the islands of Hawaii (henceforth referred to as Hawaii), Maui and Oahu. It also presents a literature review as baseline information on the health effects of sulfide. The scientific background data and related information is being made available for use by others in conducting future scientific research in these areas. This report describes the environmental resources present in the areas studied (i.e., the affected environment) and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts.« less

Time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to climate change.

PubMed

Wu, Donghai; Zhao, Xiang; Liang, Shunlin; Zhou, Tao; Huang, Kaicheng; Tang, Bijian; Zhao, Wenqian

2015-09-01

Climate conditions significantly affect vegetation growth in terrestrial ecosystems. Due to the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystems, the vegetation responses to climate vary considerably with the diverse spatial patterns and the time-lag effects, which are the most important mechanism of climate-vegetation interactive effects. Extensive studies focused on large-scale vegetation-climate interactions use the simultaneous meteorological and vegetation indicators to develop models; however, the time-lag effects are less considered, which tends to increase uncertainty. In this study, we aim to quantitatively determine the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors using the GIMMS3g NDVI time series and the CRU temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation datasets. First, this study analyzed the time-lag effects of global vegetation responses to different climatic factors. Then, a multiple linear regression model and partial correlation model were established to statistically analyze the roles of different climatic factors on vegetation responses, from which the primary climate-driving factors for different vegetation types were determined. The results showed that (i) both the time-lag effects of the vegetation responses and the major climate-driving factors that significantly affect vegetation growth varied significantly at the global scale, which was related to the diverse vegetation and climate characteristics; (ii) regarding the time-lag effects, the climatic factors explained 64% variation of the global vegetation growth, which was 11% relatively higher than the model ignoring the time-lag effects; (iii) for the area with a significant change trend (for the period 1982-2008) in the global GIMMS3g NDVI (P < 0.05), the primary driving factor was temperature; and (iv) at the regional scale, the variation in vegetation growth was also related to human activities and natural disturbances. Considering the time-lag effects is quite important for better predicting and evaluating the vegetation dynamics under the background of global climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antarctic Meteorology and Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, J. C.; Turner, J.

1997-07-01

This book is a comprehensive survey of the climatology and meteorology of Antarctica. The first section of the book reviews the methods by which we can observe the Antarctic atmosphere and presents a synthesis of climatological measurements. In the second section, the authors consider the processes that maintain the observed climate, from large-scale atmospheric circulation to small-scale processes. The final section reviews our current knowledge of the variability of Antarctic climate and the possible effects of "greenhouse" warming. The authors stress links among the Antarctic atmosphere, other elements of the Antarctic climate system (oceans, sea ice and ice sheets), and the global climate system. This volume will be of greatest interest to meteorologists and climatologists with a specialized interest in Antarctica, but it will also appeal to researchers in Antarctic glaciology, oceanography and biology. Graduates and undergraduates studying physical geography, and the earth, atmospheric and environmental sciences will find much useful background material in the book.

Energy Savings of Low-E Storm Windows and Panels across US Climate Zones

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Culp, Thomas D.; Cort, Katherine A.

This report builds off of previous modeling work related to low-e storm windows used to create a "Database of U.S. Climate-Based Analysis for Low-E Storm Windows." This work updates similar studies using new fuel costs and examining the separate contributions of reduced air leakage and reduced coefficients of overall heat transfer and solar heat gain. In this report we examine the energy savings and cost effectiveness of low-E storm windows in residential homes across a broad range of U.S. climates, excluding the impact from infiltration reductions, which tend to vary using the National Energy Audit Tool (NEAT) and RESFEN modelmore » calculations. This report includes a summary of the results, NEAT and RESFEN background, methodology, and input assumptions, and an appendix with detailed results and assumptions by climate zone.« less

Correlation between safety climate and contractor safety assessment programs in construction

PubMed Central

Sparer, EH1; Murphy, LA; Taylor, KM; Dennerlein, Jt

2015-01-01

Background Contractor safety assessment programs (CSAPs) measure safety performance by integrating multiple data sources together; however, the relationship between these measures of safety performance and safety climate within the construction industry is unknown. Methods 401 construction workers employed by 68 companies on 26 sites and 11 safety managers employed by 11 companies completed brief surveys containing a nine-item safety climate scale developed for the construction industry. CSAP scores from ConstructSecure, Inc., an online CSAP database, classified these 68 companies as high or low scorers, with the median score of the sample population as the threshold. Spearman rank correlations evaluated the association between the CSAP score and the safety climate score at the individual level, as well as with various grouping methodologies. In addition, Spearman correlations evaluated the comparison between manager-assessed safety climate and worker-assessed safety climate. Results There were no statistically significant differences between safety climate scores reported by workers in the high and low CSAP groups. There were, at best, weak correlations between workers’ safety climate scores and the company CSAP scores, with marginal statistical significance with two groupings of the data. There were also no significant differences between the manager-assessed safety climate and the worker-assessed safety climate scores. Conclusions A CSAP safety performance score does not appear to capture safety climate, as measured in this study. The nature of safety climate in construction is complex, which may be reflective of the challenges in measuring safety climate within this industry. PMID:24038403

Maniac Talk - Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-22

Cynthia Rosenzweig Maniac Lecture, June 22, 2016 NASA climate scientist Cynthia Rosenzweig presented a Maniac lecture entitled, "What If and So What? Climate Change and Corn/Wheat/Rice/Soybeans (and a few words on Cities)." Cynthia narrated how her background as agronomist set her on a path to investigate how a change in climate due to increased carbon dioxide would impact food security and how NASA missions and models have been valuable at every step of the way. Cynthia also touched briefly on climate change and cities.

A multicenter study: how do medical students perceive clinical learning climate?

PubMed Central

Yilmaz, Nilufer Demiral; Velipasaoglu, Serpil; Ozan, Sema; Basusta, Bilge Uzun; Midik, Ozlem; Mamakli, Sumer; Karaoglu, Nazan; Tengiz, Funda; Durak, Halil İbrahim; Sahin, Hatice

2016-01-01

Background The relationship between students and instructors is of crucial importance for the development of a positive learning climate. Learning climate is a multifaceted concept, and its measurement is a complicated process. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine medical students’ perceptions about the clinical learning climate and to investigate differences in their perceptions in terms of various variables. Methods Medical students studying at six medical schools in Turkey were recruited for the study. All students who completed clinical rotations, which lasted for 3 or more weeks, were included in the study (n=3,097). Data were collected using the Clinical Learning Climate Scale (CLCS). The CLCS (36 items) includes three subscales: clinical environment, emotion, and motivation. Each item is scored using a 5-point Likert scale (1: strongly disagree to 5: strongly agree). Results The response rate for the trainees was 69.67% (n=1,519), and for the interns it was 51.47% (n=917). The mean total CLCS score was 117.20±17.19. The rotation during which the clinical learning climate was perceived most favorably was the Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation rotation (mean score: 137.77). The most negatively perceived rotation was the General Internal Medicine rotation (mean score: 104.31). There were significant differences between mean total scores in terms of trainee/intern characteristics, internal medicine/surgical medicine rotations, and perception of success. Conclusion The results of this study drew attention to certain aspects of the clinical learning climate in medical schools. Clinical teacher/instructor/supervisor, clinical training programs, students’ interactions in clinical settings, self-realization, mood, students’ intrinsic motivation, and institutional commitment are important components of the clinical learning climate. For this reason, the aforementioned components should be taken into consideration in studies aiming to improve clinical learning climate. PMID:27640648

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

PubMed Central

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442

Soils regulate and mitigate climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: The interaction of soil science and ecology can be traced back to the origins of soil science as an independent discipline within the natural sciences. Vasili Dokuchaev, the founder of modern soil science, identified five soil forming factors: parent material, climate, o...

Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health.

PubMed

Conlon, Kathryn C; Kintziger, Kristina W; Jagger, Meredith; Stefanova, Lydia; Uejio, Christopher K; Konrad, Charles

2016-08-09

There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.

Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C.; Kintziger, Kristina W.; Jagger, Meredith; Stefanova, Lydia; Uejio, Christopher K.; Konrad, Charles

2016-01-01

There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida. PMID:27517942

Climate change and skin disease.

PubMed

Lundgren, Ashley D

2018-04-01

Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

Physico-chemical characterization of Mediterranean background aerosol at the Capogranitola observatory (Sicily)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinaldi, Matteo; Gilardoni, Stefania; Paglione, Marco; Sandrini, Silvia; Decesari, Stefano; Zanca, Nicola; Marinoni, Angela; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Bonasoni, Paolo; Ielpo, Piera; Fossum, Kirsten; Gobbi, Gian Paolo; Facchini, Maria Cristina

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is characterized by elevated aerosol amounts and co-existence of different aerosol types, both natural and anthropogenic, while it is one of the most climatically sensitive areas. Therefore, it offers ideal conditions for studying aerosol processes and aerosol-climate interactions. An intensive aerosol physico-chemical characterization campaign was held at the Environmental-Climatic Observatory at Capo Granitola (Sicily; 37.5753° N, 12.6595° E) during April 2016, under the framework of the project Air-Sea Lab. The Observatory is located at the coast-line, facing the Strait of Sicily, and is part of the national I-AMICA network (http://www.i-amica.it/i-amica/?lang=en). Sub-micrometer aerosol chemical composition was measured by high resolution time of flight aerosol mass spectrometer (HR-ToF-AMS), for the first time at Capogranitola. Sea-salt concentration was estimated from AMS measurements following Ovadnevaite et al. (2012). For a complete mass closure of the submicron aerosol, black carbon (BC) concentration was derived from multiangle absorption photometer (MAAP) measurements. Positive matrix factorization was deployed to investigate organic aerosol (OA) sources at the site. Aerosol chemical composition confirms that Capogranitola is a representative background site, with generally low contribution of BC and nitrate and highly oxidized OA. In particular, aerosol sampled in the marine sector (130-310°) is less affected by local sources and it is likely representative of the central Mediterranean background. Aerosol in background conditions is dominated by sulfate and OA (37% and 31%), followed by ammonium (12%), sea-salt (10%), BC (6%) and nitrate (3%). The average reconstructed sub-micrometer aerosol mass in background conditions is 3.7±2.3 μg m-3. OA source apportionment shows a minor contribution from primary sources, with hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), from fossil fuel combustion, contributing for 3% and biomass burning OA (BBOA) for 2%. Oxidized OA (OOA) dominates the rest of OA mass. In particular, OOA1 and OOA2 (70% in total, OM:OC ˜ 2.5) represent the result of prolonged atmospheric processing of OA, while OOA3 (25%, OM:OC ˜ 2.0) clearly represents fresher inputs of OOA from land. Investigation of HOA and BC time trends suggests that HOA in background conditions may be strongly contributed by ship traffic more than by land sources. The representativity of the background aerosol collected at Capogranitola will be discussed by comparing with measurements performed in parallel at the other I-AMICA southern Italy coastal stations and with those acquired in a subsequent cruise (May-June 2016) around the Italian Peninsula. Aerosol climate relevant properties, in relation with chemical composition, will be also presented and discussed. Ovadnevaite J. et al. (2012), J. Geophys. Res., 117, D16201.

[Eating Disorders in Female High School Students: Educational and Migration Background, School-Related Stress and Performance-Orientated Classes].

PubMed

Grüttner, M

2018-02-01

Many adolescents and young adults, especially young females, suffer from eating disorders or problematic nutrition behavior. Children and adolescents with migration background as well as from a lower social class are more likely to have eating disorders 1. Although schools are an important context in these age groups, there is a lack of scientific inquiry concerning the relationship between schooling and eating disorders. The present study investigates the relationship between performance-related stress at school and eating disorders while controlling for personnel and familial resources. Interview data on the 7 th grade high school students from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)* starting cohort 3 are used. The dependent variable is based on the SCOFF questionnaire. Logistic regressions are calculated using information from students and parents. Performance-related stress at school is operationalized by the negative deviation of realistic from idealistic educational aspirations (EA) and unfulfilled social expectations (SE), performance-oriented class climate is operationalized by students' perception of the performance-orientation of the teacher (PT) and the expectations of classmates (EC). The results point towards an increased risk of suffering from an eating disorder due to performance-related school stress (EA: AME: 0.18; p<0.001; SE: AME: 0.12; p<0.05) and performance-oriented class climate (PT: AME: 0.05; p<0.1; EC: AME: 0.15, p<0.01). They partly explain the relation between both migration background and educational background and eating disorders. In order to prevent eating disorders in female high school students, attention should be paid to performance-orientation experienced at school and in the social background, and improved individual support for disadvantaged students should be made available. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Evaluation of simulated corn yields and associated uncertainty in different climate zones of China using Daycent Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, A.; Xue, Y.

2017-12-01

Corn is one of most important agricultural production in China. Research on the simulation of corn yields and the impacts of climate change and agricultural management practices on corn yields is important in maintaining the stable corn production. After climatic data including daily temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed from 1948 to 2010, soil properties, observed corn yields, and farmland management information were collected, corn yields grown in humidity and hot environment (Sichuang province) and cold and dry environment (Hebei province) in China in the past 63 years were simulated by Daycent, and the results was evaluated based on published yield record. The relationship between regional climate change, global warming and corn yield were analyzed, the uncertainties of simulation derived from agricultural management practices by changing fertilization levels, land fertilizer maintenance and tillage methods were reported. The results showed that: (1) Daycent model is capable to simulate corn yields under the different climatic background in China. (2) When studying the relationship between regional climate change and corn yields, it has been found that observed and simulated corn yields increased along with total regional climate change. (3) When studying the relationship between the global warming and corn yields, It was discovered that newly-simulated corn yields after removing the global warming trend of original temperature data were lower than before.

Endemism hotspots are linked to stable climatic refugia

PubMed Central

Noss, Reed

2017-01-01

Background Centres of endemism have received much attention from evolutionists, biogeographers, ecologists and conservationists. Climatic stability is often cited as a major reason for the occurrences of these geographic concentrations of species which are not found anywhere else. The proposed linkage between endemism and climatic stability raises unanswered questions about the persistence of biodiversity during the present era of rapidly changing climate. Key Questions The current status of evidence linking geographic centres of endemism to climatic stability over evolutionary time was examined. The following questions were asked. Do macroecological analyses support such an endemism–stability linkage? Do comparative studies find that endemic species display traits reflecting evolution in stable climates? Will centres of endemism in microrefugia or macrorefugia remain relatively stable and capable of supporting high biological diversity into the future? What are the implications of the endemism–stability linkage for conservation? Conclusions Recent work using the concept of climate change velocity supports the classic idea that centres of endemism occur where past climatic fluctuations have been mild and where mountainous topography or favourable ocean currents contribute to creating refugia. Our knowledge of trait differences between narrow endemics and more widely distributed species remains highly incomplete. Current knowledge suggests that centres of endemism will remain relatively climatically buffered in the future, with the important caveat that absolute levels of climatic change and species losses in these regions may still be large. PMID:28064195

Refugia Research Coalition: A regional-scale approach for connecting refugia science to natural and cultural resource management

EPA Science Inventory

Background / question / methods Warmer air and water temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, and altered fire regimes associated with climate change threaten many important natural and cultural resources. Climate change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contempora...

Effects of watershed management on sources and fluxes of water, carbon, and nitrogen in streams: Climate implications

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods Due to the interactive effects of urbanization and climate variability, managing impacts on watershed hydrology and biogeochemical processing has become increasingly important, particularly due to the enhanced potential for eutrophication and hypoxia i...

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

Increasing ENSO-Driven Drought and Wildfire Risks in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fasullo, J.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Stevenson, S.

2015-12-01

ENSO-related teleconnections occurring in the transient climate states of the 20th and 21st centuries are examined using the NCAR CESM1-CAM5 Large Ensemble (LE). A focus is given to quantifying the changing nature of related variability in a warming climate, the statistical robustness of which is enhanced by the numerous members of the LE (presently ~40). It is found that while the dynamical components of ENSO's teleconnections weaken considerably in a warming world, associated variability over land is in many cases sustained by changes in the background state, such as for rainfall due to the background rise in specific humidity. In some fields, particularly those associated with associated with thermal stress (e.g. drought and wildfire), ENSO-related variance increases dramatically. This, combined with the fact that ENSO variance itself increases in a warming climate in the LE, contributes to dramatic projected increases in ENSO-driven drought and wildfire risks in a warming world.

Effects of rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices among electronics technology employees in Nigeria

PubMed Central

Ogbuanya, Theresa Chinyere; Eseadi, Chiedu; Orji, Chibueze Tobias; Ede, Moses Onyemaechi; Ohanu, Ifeanyi Benedict; Bakare, Jimoh

2017-01-01

Abstract Background: Improving employees’ perception of organizational climate, and coaching them to remain steadfast when managing occupational risks associated with their job, might have an important effect on their psychosocial wellbeing and occupational health. This study examined the effects of a rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program on the perceptions of organizational climate and occupational risk management practices. Methods: The participants were 77 electronics technology employees in the south-east of Nigeria. The study used a pretest–posttest control group design. Results: The rational emotive occupational health therapy intervention program significantly improved perceptions of the organizational climate for the people in the treatment group compared to those in the waitlist control group at post-intervention and follow-up assessments. Occupational risk management practices of the employees in the treatment group were also significantly better than those in the waitlist control group at the same 2 assessments. Conclusions: Corporate application of a rational emotive behavior therapy as an occupational health therapy intervention program is essential for improving the perceptions of organizational climate and promoting the adoption of feasible occupational risk management strategies in the workplace. PMID:28471971

An analytical approach to separate climate and human contributions to basin streamflow variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Changbin; Wang, Liuming; Wanrui, Wang; Qi, Jiaguo; Linshan, Yang; Zhang, Yuan; Lei, Wu; Cui, Xia; Wang, Peng

2018-04-01

Climate variability and anthropogenic regulations are two interwoven factors in the ecohydrologic system across large basins. Understanding the roles that these two factors play under various hydrologic conditions is of great significance for basin hydrology and sustainable water utilization. In this study, we present an analytical approach based on coupling water balance method and Budyko hypothesis to derive effectiveness coefficients (ECs) of climate change, as a way to disentangle contributions of it and human activities to the variability of river discharges under different hydro-transitional situations. The climate dominated streamflow change (ΔQc) by EC approach was compared with those deduced by the elasticity method and sensitivity index. The results suggest that the EC approach is valid and applicable for hydrologic study at large basin scale. Analyses of various scenarios revealed that contributions of climate change and human activities to river discharge variation differed among the regions of the study area. Over the past several decades, climate change dominated hydro-transitions from dry to wet, while human activities played key roles in the reduction of streamflow during wet to dry periods. Remarkable decline of discharge in upstream was mainly due to human interventions, although climate contributed more to runoff increasing during dry periods in the semi-arid downstream. Induced effectiveness on streamflow changes indicated a contribution ratio of 49% for climate and 51% for human activities at the basin scale from 1956 to 2015. The mathematic derivation based simple approach, together with the case example of temporal segmentation and spatial zoning, could help people understand variation of river discharge with more details at a large basin scale under the background of climate change and human regulations.

Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students’ knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions. Methods A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results. Result Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p < 0.05). Using electronic mass media was also significantly associated with knowledge about the health impacts of climate change. Conclusion Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health. PMID:24916631

Tree height growth indicating drought and nitrogen deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre

2016-04-01

Several studies have been reported the increasing trends of forest growth in Europe in the last decades. Sites, where the water is not limiting factor, the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and high nitrogen deposition influenced accelerated tree height growth. However few researches show that the drying climate conditions and water deficit cause slow/not definite trend of tree height growth in forests. The aim of our study presents the effects of drying climate and surplus nitrogen on height growth of sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Almost 50 sessile oak stands (with zonal site condition) have been measured along a humid-arid climatic transect in Hungary. Top heights of the trees are the best dendrometric parameter for indicating the changing site conditions. Observed top heights dates were compared with 50-years climate condition along the humid-arid climatic transect. Tree height growth in the dry and mesic section of climatic gradient slowed at the last 4 decades, because of the increasing frequency of dry periods. Accelerated height growth were measured in the mesic and humid section of transect, where the nitrogen deposition due to local air pollution were higher than the background deposition. These results draw attention to the importance of the drying climate and surplus nitrogen in the global changes. Keywords: climate change impacts, drought periods, surplus deposition, tree height growth Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Relationships between Student, Staff, and Administrative Measures of School Climate and Student Health and Academic Outcomes

PubMed Central

Gase, Lauren Nichol; Gomez, Louis M.; Kuo, Tony; Glenn, Beth A.; Inkelas, Moira; Ponce, Ninez A.

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND School climate is an integral part of a comprehensive approach to improving the wellbeing of students; however, little is known about the relationships between its different domains and measures. This study examined the relationships between student, staff, and administrative measures of school climate in order to understand the extent to which they were related to each other and student outcomes. METHODS The sample included 33,572 secondary school students from 121 schools in Los Angeles County during the 2014–2015 academic year. A multilevel regression model was constructed to examine the association between the domains and measures of school climate and five outcomes of student wellbeing: depressive symptoms or suicidal ideation, tobacco use, alcohol use, marijuana use, and grades. RESULTS Student, staff, and administrative measures of school climate were weakly correlated. Strong associations were found between student outcomes and student reports of engagement and safety, while school staff reports and administrative measures of school climate showed limited associations with student outcomes. CONCLUSIONS As schools seek to measure and implement interventions aimed at improving school climate, consideration should be given to grounding these efforts in a multi-dimensional conceptualization of climate that values student perspectives and includes elements of both engagement and safety. PMID:28382671

The safety climate in primary care (SAP-C) study: study protocol for a randomised controlled feasibility study.

PubMed

Lydon, Sinéad; Cupples, Margaret E; Hart, Nigel; Murphy, Andrew W; Faherty, Aileen; O'Connor, Paul

2016-01-01

Research on patient safety has focused largely on secondary care settings, and there is a dearth of knowledge relating to safety culture or climate, and safety climate improvement strategies, in the context of primary care. This is problematic given the high rates of usage of primary care services and the myriad of opportunities for clinical errors daily. The current research programme aimed to assess the effectiveness of an intervention derived from the Scottish Patient Safety Programme in Primary Care. The intervention consists of safety climate measurement and feedback and patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The purpose of this paper is to describe the background to this research and to present the methodology of this feasibility study in preparation for a future definitive RCT. The SAP-C study is a feasibility study employing a randomised controlled pretest-posttest design that will be conducted in 10 general practices in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Five practices will receive the safety climate intervention over a 9-month period. The five practices in the control group will continue care as usual but will complete the GP-SafeQuest safety climate questionnaire at baseline (month 1) and at the terminus of the intervention (month 9). The outcomes of the study include process evaluation metrics (i.e. rates of participant recruitment and retention, rates of completion of safety climate measures, qualitative data regarding participants' perceptions of the intervention's potential efficacy, acceptability, and sustainability), patient safety culture in intervention and control group practices at posttest, and instances of undetected patient harm identified through patient chart audit using the trigger review method. The planned study investigates an intervention to improve safety climate in Irish primary care settings. The resulting data may inform our knowledge of the frequency of undetected patient safety incidents in primary care, may contribute to improved patient safety practices in primary care settings, and may inform future research on patient safety improvement initiatives.

An integrated hydrological modeling approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts on coastal water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Dapeng; Zheng, Yi; Mao, Yixin; Zhang, Aijing; Wu, Bin; Li, Jinguo; Tian, Yong; Wu, Xin

2018-02-01

Water resources in coastal areas can be profoundly influenced by both climate change and human activities. These climatic and human impacts are usually intertwined and difficult to isolate. This study developed an integrated model-based approach for detection and attribution of climatic and human impacts and applied this approach to the Luanhe Plain, a typical coastal area in northern China. An integrated surface water-groundwater model was developed for the study area using GSFLOW (coupled groundwater and surface-water flow). Model calibration and validation were performed for background years between 1975 and 2000. The variation in water resources between the 1980s and 1990s was then quantitatively attributed to climate variability, groundwater pumping and changes in upstream inflow. Climate scenarios for future years (2075-2100) were also developed by downscaling the projections in CMIP5. Potential water resource responses to climate change, as well as their uncertainty, were then investigated through integrated modeling. The study results demonstrated the feasibility and value of the integrated modeling-based analysis for water resource management in areas with complex surface water-groundwater interaction. Specific findings for the Luanhe Plain included the following: (1) During the historical period, upstream inflow had the most significant impact on river outflow to the sea, followed by climate variability, whereas groundwater pumping was the least influential. (2) The increase in groundwater pumping had a dominant influence on the decline in groundwater change, followed by climate variability. (3) Synergetic and counteractive effects among different impacting factors, while identified, were not significant, which implied that the interaction among different factors was not very strong in this case. (4) It is highly probable that future climate change will accelerate groundwater depletion in the study area, implying that strict regulations for groundwater pumping are imperative for adaptation.

Preschool Teachers' Child-Centered Beliefs: Direct and Indirect Associations with Work Climate and Job-Related Wellbeing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hur, Eunhye; Jeon, Lieny; Buettner, Cynthia K.

2016-01-01

Background: Early childhood teachers' child-centered beliefs, defined as teachers' attitudes about how children learn, have been associated with teachers' developmentally appropriate practices and positive child outcomes. The predictors of teachers' child-centered beliefs, however, are less frequently explored. Objective: This study tested whether…

High School Students' Experiences of Bullying and Victimization and the Association with School Health Center Use

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Catherine; Deardorff, Julianna; Lahiff, Maureen; Soleimanpour, Samira; Sakashita, Kimi; Brindis, Claire D.

2015-01-01

Background: Bullying and victimization are ongoing concerns in schools. School health centers (SHCs) are well situated to support affected students because they provide crisis intervention, mental health care, and broader interventions to improve school climate. This study examined the association between urban adolescents' experiences of…

Defining Contagion Literacy: A Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilstadius, Margareta; Gericke, Niklas

2017-01-01

Against the background of climate change, which enables infectious diseases to move their frontiers and the increasing global mobility, which make people more exposed to contagion, we as citizens need to relate to this new scenario. A greater number of infectious diseases may also potentially lead to an increased need to use antibiotics and…

Methods and Strategies: Making the Climate Connection

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson, Bruce

2010-01-01

This article presents classroom resources for teaching both weather and climate along with background resources for teachers who want to beef up their own knowledge in the subjects. In addition, the author proposes learning progressions that teachers can use to guide their instruction. (Contains 13 online resources.)

Can "Ozzie" the Ostrich Prepare the Public for Better Learning about Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. F.; Lustick, D. S.; Lohmeier, J.; Lockwood, L.

2016-02-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing societal issues today, and educators are struggling with how to inform people of all ages and backgrounds about the reality and relevance of climate change. ScienceToGo.org has designed 12 posters that were placed on the Boston subways over the course of 15 months. Surveys of T-riders suggest that Ozzie the Ostrich is highly recognizable, is non-threatening, and is connecting Boston with climate change impacts and solutions. We hypothesize that our advertising campaign not only raises awareness about climate change in Boston and engages the public in thinking and talking about climate change, but also prepares them for learning more about climate change in the future. By exposing students to the 12 posters, we think that fears associated with climate change are lessened, and that students are more willing to explore a variety of media (newspaper articles, internet postings, peer-reviewed journal articles, data, and graphs) compared to students that are not exposed to the posters. Students will complete an initial survey, be exposed (or not exposed) to Ozzie posters, asked to explore a variety of media related to climate change, then surveyed again. Finally, focus groups will be conducted to gain insights on how students interact about climate change with or without exposure to Ozzie. We are interested in learning if exposure to brief, engaging, and humorous advertising messages will change the way students learn about climate change. This presentation will present initial results of this study.

Patient safety culture in Norwegian primary care: a study in out-of-hours casualty clinics and GP practices.

PubMed

Bondevik, Gunnar Tschudi; Hofoss, Dag; Hansen, Elisabeth Holm; Deilkås, Ellen Catharina Tveter

2014-09-01

This study aimed to investigate patient safety attitudes amongst health care providers in Norwegian primary care by using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire, in both out-of-hours (OOH) casualty clinics and GP practices. The questionnaire identifies five major patient safety factors: Teamwork climate, Safety climate, Job satisfaction, Perceptions of management, and Working conditions. Cross-sectional study. Statistical analysis included multiple linear regression and independent samples t-tests. Seven OOH casualty clinics and 17 GP practices in Norway. In October and November 2012, 510 primary health care providers working in OOH casualty clinics and GP practices (316 doctors and 194 nurses) were invited to participate anonymously. To study whether patterns in patient safety attitudes were related to professional background, gender, age, and clinical setting. The overall response rate was 52%; 72% of the nurses and 39% of the doctors answered the questionnaire. In the OOH clinics, nurses scored significantly higher than doctors on Safety climate and Job satisfaction. Older health care providers scored significantly higher than younger on Safety climate and Working conditions. In GP practices, male health professionals scored significantly higher than female on Teamwork climate, Safety climate, Perceptions of management and Working conditions. Health care providers in GP practices had significant higher mean scores on the factors Safety climate and Working conditions, compared with those working in the OOH clinics. Our study showed that nurses scored higher than doctors, older health professionals scored higher than younger, male GPs scored higher than female GPs, and health professionals in GP practices scored higher than those in OOH clinics - on several patient safety factors.

Self-Handicapping in School Physical Education: The Influence of the Motivational Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Standage, Martyn; Treasure, Darren C.; Hooper, Katherine; Kuczka, Kendy

2007-01-01

Background: Self-handicapping is an attribution-related process whereby individuals create performance impediments/excuses to protect self-worth in socially evaluative environments. Thus, the prevailing motivational climate would appear to be an important factor when attempting to understand the situational self-handicapping process within school…

Biotic regulation of CO2 uptake-climate responses: Links to vegetation properties

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Primary productivity is regulated by climatic factors, but also depends on which plant species are present and, more specifically, on how plant traits that control photosynthesis and its response to the environment are distributed in the community. We used remotely-sense...

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

New Opportunities for Principal Leadership: Shaping School Climates for Enhanced Teacher Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drago-Severson, Eleanor

2012-01-01

Background/Context: Improved professional development for teachers and principals is central to our national educational agenda. Principals struggle with the challenge of how to build school climates that improve practice in an era of heightened accountability and increasingly complex adaptive challenges. Purpose/Objective/Research Questions/Focus…

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Spatial Variation in Background Mortality among Dominant Coral Taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Pisapia, Chiara; Pratchett, Morgan S.

2014-01-01

Even in the absence of major disturbances (e.g., cyclones, bleaching), corals are consistently subject to high levels of background mortality, which undermines individual fitness and resilience of coral colonies. Partial mortality may impact coral response to climate change by reducing colony ability to recover between major acute stressors. This study quantified proportion of injured versus uninjured colonies (the prevalence of injuries) and instantaneous measures of areal extent of injuries across individual colonies (the severity of injuries), in four common coral species along the Great Barrier Reef in Australia: massive Porites, encrusting Montipora, Acropora hyacinthus and Pocillopora damicornis. A total of 2,276 adult colonies were surveyed three latitudinal sectors, nine reefs and 27 sites along 1000 km2 on the Great Barrier Reef. The prevalence of injuries was very high, especially for Porites spp (91%) and Montipora encrusting (85%) and varied significantly, but most lay at small spatial scales (e.g., among colonies positioned <10-m apart). Similarly, severity of background partial mortality was surprisingly high (between 5% and 21%) but varied greatly among colonies within the same site and habitat. This study suggests that intraspecific variation in partial mortality between adjacent colonies may be more important than variation between colonies in different latitudinal sectors or reefs. Differences in the prevalence and severity of background partial mortality have significant ramifications for coral capacity to cope with increasing acute disturbances, such as climate-induced coral bleaching. These data are important for understanding coral responses to increasing stressors, and in particular for predicting their capacity to recover between subsequent disturbances. PMID:24959921

Spatial variation in background mortality among dominant coral taxa on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Pisapia, Chiara; Pratchett, Morgan S

2014-01-01

Even in the absence of major disturbances (e.g., cyclones, bleaching), corals are consistently subject to high levels of background mortality, which undermines individual fitness and resilience of coral colonies. Partial mortality may impact coral response to climate change by reducing colony ability to recover between major acute stressors. This study quantified proportion of injured versus uninjured colonies (the prevalence of injuries) and instantaneous measures of areal extent of injuries across individual colonies (the severity of injuries), in four common coral species along the Great Barrier Reef in Australia: massive Porites, encrusting Montipora, Acropora hyacinthus and Pocillopora damicornis. A total of 2,276 adult colonies were surveyed three latitudinal sectors, nine reefs and 27 sites along 1000 km2 on the Great Barrier Reef. The prevalence of injuries was very high, especially for Porites spp (91%) and Montipora encrusting (85%) and varied significantly, but most lay at small spatial scales (e.g., among colonies positioned <10-m apart). Similarly, severity of background partial mortality was surprisingly high (between 5% and 21%) but varied greatly among colonies within the same site and habitat. This study suggests that intraspecific variation in partial mortality between adjacent colonies may be more important than variation between colonies in different latitudinal sectors or reefs. Differences in the prevalence and severity of background partial mortality have significant ramifications for coral capacity to cope with increasing acute disturbances, such as climate-induced coral bleaching. These data are important for understanding coral responses to increasing stressors, and in particular for predicting their capacity to recover between subsequent disturbances.

Effects of source rocks, soil features and climate on natural gamma radioactivity in the Crati valley (Calabria, Southern Italy).

PubMed

Guagliardi, Ilaria; Rovella, Natalia; Apollaro, Carmine; Bloise, Andrea; De Rosa, Rosanna; Scarciglia, Fabio; Buttafuoco, Gabriele

2016-05-01

The study, which represents an innovative scientific strategy to approach the study of natural radioactivity in terms of spatial and temporal variability, was aimed to characterize the background levels of natural radionuclides in soil and rock in the urban and peri-urban soil of a southern Italy area; to quantify their variations due to radionuclide bearing minerals and soil properties, taking into account nature and extent of seasonality influence. Its main novelty is taking into account the effect of climate in controlling natural gamma radioactivity as well as analysing soil radioactivity in terms of soil properties and pedogenetic processes. In different bedrocks and soils, activities of natural radionuclides ((238)U, (232)Th (4) K) and total radioactivity were measured at 181 locations by means of scintillation γ-ray spectrometry. In addition, selected rocks samples were collected and analysed, using a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) equipped with an Energy Dispersive Spectrometer (EDS) and an X-Ray Powder Diffraction (XRPD), to assess the main sources of radionuclides. The natural-gamma background is intimately related to differing petrologic features of crystalline source rocks and to peculiar pedogenetic features and processes. The radioactivity survey was conducted during two different seasons with marked changes in the main climatic characteristics, namely dry summer and moist winter, to evaluate possible effects of seasonal climatic variations and soil properties on radioactivity measurements. Seasonal variations of radionuclides activities show their peak values in summer. The activities of (238)U, (232)Th and (4) K exhibit a positive correlation with the air temperature and are negatively correlated with precipitations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate variations in the late Miocene - early Pliocene in the Black Sea region (Taman peninsula) inferred from palynological analyses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grundan, Ekaterina; Kürschner, Wolfram; Krijgsman, Wout

2017-04-01

A palynological study of Neogene sediments from the cape "Zhelezny Rog" (Taman peninsula, the Black Sea area) was carried out as part of integrated micropaleontological, lithological and paleomagnetic research. The Neogene section of the cape "Zhelezny Rog" (the Zhelezny Rog section) is one of the most representative Upper Miocene to Lower Pliocene succession of Eastern Paratethys. The section covers the Sarmatian, Maeotian, Pontian (upper Miocene) and Kimmerian (lower Pliocene) local stages. One hundred and eighteen samples were selected from the Zhelezny rog section for quantitative palynological analysis. Using PCA analysis and additional proxy such as "steppe index", art/chen and poa/ast ratios the regional climate history was reconstructed. The Early Maeotian is characterized by a warm, warm-temperate climate on the background of relatively high humidity. During the Late Maeotian it became colder and dryer. The coldest and driest conditions during the Maeotian correspond to the middle part of the Late Maeotian. There were a high number of steppe elements (as Artemisia) and low amount of thermophilous ones. Climate of the end of the Maeotian was characterized by warmer and wetter conditions. In the beginning of the Pontian there was a cooling trend, as evidenced by the decreasing thermophilous elements and the increasing high-latitude trees. Most significant changes were found within the Pontian-Kimmerian boundary beds. This level is characterized by decreasing of thermophilous elements, increasing of cool-temperate pollen and Sphagnum spores that are considered as an evidence of a temperature decrease in the background of high humidity conditions. The results will be discussed and correlated to Neogene global climate trends.

Climate change and natural disasters – integrating science and practice to protect health

PubMed Central

Sauerborn, Rainer; Ebi, Kristie

2012-01-01

Background Hydro-meteorological disasters are the focus of this paper. The authors examine, to which extent climate change increases their frequency and intensity. Methods Review of IPCC-projections of climate-change related extreme weather events and related literature on health effects. Results Projections show that climate change is likely to increase the frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of a range of extreme weather events over coming decades. Conclusions There is a need for strengthened collaboration between climate scientists, the health researchers and policy-makers as well as the disaster community to jointly develop adaptation strategies to protect human. PMID:23273248

An Analysis of the Attraction and Holding Power of Motor Skill Stations Used in a Mastery Motivational Physical Education Climate for Preschool Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hastie, Peter A.; Johnson, Jerraco L.; Rudisill, Mary E.

2018-01-01

Background: The template for the current study was the project conducted by Rosenthal [1973. "An Ecological Study of Free Play in the Nursery School." Doctoral diss., Wayne State University] where she investigated the attraction and holding power of various learning centres during free play in a naturalistic preschool setting.…

The meaning and measurement of implementation climate

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Climate has a long history in organizational studies, but few theoretical models integrate the complex effects of climate during innovation implementation. In 1996, a theoretical model was proposed that organizations could develop a positive climate for implementation by making use of various policies and practices that promote organizational members' means, motives, and opportunities for innovation use. The model proposes that implementation climate--or the extent to which organizational members perceive that innovation use is expected, supported, and rewarded--is positively associated with implementation effectiveness. The implementation climate construct holds significant promise for advancing scientific knowledge about the organizational determinants of innovation implementation. However, the construct has not received sufficient scholarly attention, despite numerous citations in the scientific literature. In this article, we clarify the meaning of implementation climate, discuss several measurement issues, and propose guidelines for empirical study. Discussion Implementation climate differs from constructs such as organizational climate, culture, or context in two important respects: first, it has a strategic focus (implementation), and second, it is innovation-specific. Measuring implementation climate is challenging because the construct operates at the organizational level, but requires the collection of multi-dimensional perceptual data from many expected innovation users within an organization. In order to avoid problems with construct validity, assessments of within-group agreement of implementation climate measures must be carefully considered. Implementation climate implies a high degree of within-group agreement in climate perceptions. However, researchers might find it useful to distinguish implementation climate level (the average of implementation climate perceptions) from implementation climate strength (the variability of implementation climate perceptions). It is important to recognize that the implementation climate construct applies most readily to innovations that require collective, coordinated behavior change by many organizational members both for successful implementation and for realization of anticipated benefits. For innovations that do not possess these attributes, individual-level theories of behavior change could be more useful in explaining implementation effectiveness. Summary This construct has considerable value in implementation science, however, further debate and development is necessary to refine and distinguish the construct for empirical use. PMID:21781328

Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-11-01

Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling the health co-benefits of climate policy provides policy-relevant information when the scenarios are reasonable, relevant, and thorough, and the model adequately addresses complexity. Greater consistency in selected modeling choices across the health co-benefits of climate mitigation research would facilitate evaluation of mitigation options particularly as they apply to the NDCs and promote policy uptake.

Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2012-01-01

Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

PubMed

Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

2017-03-15

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions: Why, How, and with Whom?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maldonado, J.; Lazrus, H.; Gough, B.

2017-12-01

The inherent complexity of climate change requires diverse perspectives to understand and respond to its impacts. The Rising Voices: Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions (Rising Voices) program represents a growing network of engaged Indigenous and non-Indigenous scientists committed to cross-cultural and collaborative research and activities to understand and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather and climate change. Five annual Rising Voices workshops have occurred since 2013, engaging hundreds of participants from across Tribal communities, the United States, and internationally over the years. Housed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Rising Voices aims to expand how diversity is understood in atmospheric science, to include intellectual diversity stemming from distinct cultural backgrounds. It envisions collaborative research that brings together Indigenous knowledges and science with Western climate and weather sciences in a respectful and inclusive manner to achieve culturally relevant and scientifically robust climate and weather adaptation solutions. The premise of the program and the research and collaborations it produces is that there is an opportunity cost to not involving diverse knowledge systems and observations from varied cultural backgrounds in addressing climate change. We cannot afford that cost given the challenges ahead. This poster presents some of the protocols, methods, challenges, and outcomes of cross-cultural research between Western and Indigenous scientists and communities from across the United States. It also presents some of the recommendations that have emerged from Rising Voices workshops over the past five years.

School environments and obesity: The mediating role of personal stress

PubMed Central

Milam, Adam J.; Jones, Chandria D.; Debnam, Katrina J.; Bradshaw, Catherine P.

2018-01-01

Background Youth spend a large amount of time in the school environment. Given the multiple influences of teachers, peers, and food and physical activity options, youth are likely to experience stressors that can influence their weight. This study examines the association between school climate and weight status. Method Students (n = 28,582; 58 schools) completed an online, anonymous school climate survey as part of the Maryland Safe and Supportive Schools Project. Multilevel structural equation modeling was used to explore the association between school climate, personal stress, and obesity. Analyses were stratified by gender. Results At the individual level, poor school climate (bullying, physical safety, and lack of whole-school connectedness) was associated with an increased likelihood of being overweight among females (β =.115, p = .019) but not males (β = .138; p =.244), after controlling for age, race, and physical activity. There was no association between school climate at the school level and being overweight among males or females. A second model included stress as a potential mediator; stress attenuated the relationship between poor school-related climate and being overweight (β = .039; p = .048) among females. Conclusion Findings suggest that stress related to school climate can play a role in the health and weight status of youth. PMID:29731524

Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

PubMed Central

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

Background Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent. Methods This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only, (2) climate and soil variables, and (3) soil variables only. Results The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species, but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. Conclusions Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple, plausible alternatives exist, and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants. PMID:28652933

A Longitudinal Model of School Climate, Social Justice Orientation, and Academic Outcomes among Latina/o Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pérez-Gualdrón, Leyla, M.; Helms, Janet E.

2017-01-01

Background: Social justice orientation (SJO) is the motivation to promote justice and equity among all in society. Researchers argue that students of Color with high SJO can resist structural racism in their schools/society and have positive academic outcomes. Purpose: In the present study, a longitudinal model of cultural and environmental…

Effects of Classroom Humor Climate and Acceptance of Humor Messages on Adolescents' Expressions of Humor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chiang, Yi-Chen; Lee, Chun-Yang; Wang, Hong-Huei

2016-01-01

Background: To adapt to dramatic changes from physical growth, physical development and the increasing demand of significant others, humor has been found to be an effective coping strategy. However, previous studies have found that adolescents start to express their humor styles with aggressive components which causes negative consequences, such…

Autonomy Support in People with Mild-to-Borderline Intellectual Disability: Testing the Health Care Climate Questionnaire-Intellectual Disability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frielink, Noud; Schuengel, Carlo; Embregts, Petri J. C. M.

2018-01-01

Background: Autonomy support in people with intellectual disability (ID) is an important yet understudied topic. Psychometrically sound instruments are lacking. This study tested the factor structure and reliability of an instrument for assessing the extent people with intellectual disability perceive their support staff as autonomy supportive.…

The Complexity of School Racial Climate: Reliability and Validity of a New Measure for Secondary Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrd, Christy M.

2017-01-01

Background: The conceptualization of the role of race and culture in students' experience of school has been limited. This study presents a more comprehensive and multidimensional framework than previously conceptualized and includes the two domains of (1) intergroup interactions (frequency of interaction, quality of interaction, equal status, and…

Interaction effects of temperature and ozone on lung function and markers of systemic inflammation, coagulation, and fibrinolysis: A crossover study of healthy young volunteers

EPA Science Inventory

BACKGROUND: Trends in climate suggest that extreme weather events such as heat waves will become more common. High levels of the gaseous pollutant ozone are associated with elevated temperatures. Ozone has been associated with respiratory diseases as well as cardiovascular morbid...

What Happens outside of the College Class(ed)room? Examining College Students' Social Class and Social Integration in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Soria, Krista M.

2013-01-01

This study examined the relationships between undergraduate students' social class background and variables theorized to affect students' social integration in higher education, including students' perception of campus climate, frequency of faculty interactions, frequency of involvement in campus activities, and sense of belonging.…

Future Climate Prediction of Urban Atmosphere in A Tropical Megacity: Utilization of RCP/SSP Scenarios with an Urban Growth Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.

2016-12-01

Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

High fitness costs of climate change-induced camouflage mismatch.

PubMed

Zimova, Marketa; Mills, L Scott; Nowak, J Joshua

2016-03-01

Anthropogenic climate change has created myriad stressors that threaten to cause local extinctions if wild populations fail to adapt to novel conditions. We studied individual and population-level fitness costs of a climate change-induced stressor: camouflage mismatch in seasonally colour molting species confronting decreasing snow cover duration. Based on field measurements of radiocollared snowshoe hares, we found strong selection on coat colour molt phenology, such that animals mismatched with the colour of their background experienced weekly survival decreases up to 7%. In the absence of adaptive response, we show that these mortality costs would result in strong population-level declines by the end of the century. However, natural selection acting on wide individual variation in molt phenology might enable evolutionary adaptation to camouflage mismatch. We conclude that evolutionary rescue will be critical for hares and other colour molting species to keep up with climate change. © 2016 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Record of Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Zach

2007-01-01

The hydrologic cycle is a very basic scientific principle. In this article, background information is presented on how the hydrologic cycle provides scientists with clues to understanding the history of Earth's climate. Also detailed is a web-based activity that allows students to learn about how scientists are able to piece together a record of…

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods In December, 2010, a consortium of EPA, Centers for Disease Control, and state and local health officials convened in Austin, Texas for a “participatory modeling workshop” on climate change effects on human health and health-environment interactions. ...

77 FR 47433 - Presquile National Wildlife Refuge, Chesterfield County, VA; Comprehensive Conservation Plan and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-08

... 120 school-aged students each year and a 3-day deer hunt each fall. Background The CCP Process The... respond to potential impacts of climate change on existing refuge habitats? How will the refuge improve..., monitor for climate change impacts, distribute refuge revenue sharing payments, support research on the...

Positive School Climate Is Associated with Lower Body Mass Index Percentile among Urban Preadolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gilstad-Hayden, Kathryn; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Rosenthal, Lisa; Peters, Susan M.; McCaslin, Catherine; Ickovics, Jeannette R.

2014-01-01

Background: Schools are an important environmental context in children's lives and are part of the complex web of factors that contribute to childhood obesity. Increasingly, attention has been placed on the importance of school climate (connectedness, academic standards, engagement, and student autonomy) as 1 domain of school environment beyond…

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas presentation

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods In December, 2010, a consortium of EPA, Centers for Disease Control, and state and local health officials convened in Austin, Texas for a “participatory modeling workshop” on climate change effects on human health and health-environment int...

Projected loss of a salamander diversity hotspot as a consequence of projected global climate change

Treesearch

Joseph R. Milanovich; William E. Peterman; Nathan P. Nibbelink; John C. Maerz

2010-01-01

Background: Significant shifts in climate are considered a threat to plants and animals with significant physiological limitations and limited dispersal abilities. The southern Appalachian Mountains are a global hotspot for plethodontid salamander diversity. Plethodontids are lungless ectotherms, so their ecology is strongly governed by temperature and precipitation....

Forecasting the Future Risk of Barmah Forest Virus Disease under Climate Change Scenarios in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. Methods/Principal Findings We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000–2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland. PMID:23690959

Research issues in grazing lands under changing climate. Volume 12, Part 16. Environmental and societal consequences of a possible CO/sub 2/-induced climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pendleton, D.F.; Van Dyne, G.M.

1982-12-01

A study has been made of issues and researchable questions regarding the influence of potential CO/sub 2/-induced climatic change on grazing lands. Generalized scenarios of possible changes in climate in grazing land regions of the world were constructed based on published and ongoing investigations. These studies were of two general types: (i) general circulation climate, and (ii) analyses of historical data for periods which were warmer than average current conditions, based on the assumption that global warming can be expected. A review of scenarios derived from recent research suggests that surface temperature may increase and precipitation may decrease in somemore » important grazing land regions of the world. Research needs related specifically to climate in grazing lands were discussed. In the second workship, scientists discussed individual abiotic, autotrophic, and heterotrophic processes. Potential studies of these processes which were discussed included (i) work in the laboratory and the field, (ii) modelling, and (iii) analysis and synthesis of existing data bases and scientific literature. Both biological and socio-economic issues were discussed. Several overall conclusions were derived including the following: a planned, time-phased, and integrated study would be desirable to obtain the greatest amount of information for the least amount of funding in future investigations; a relatively small interdisciplinary group should be assembled consisting of individuals with backgrounds in such areas as meteorology, plant ecology, animal ecology, range science, economics, sociology, and systems analysis, and should operate over perhaps 10 years and draw upon specific short-term contractual inputs.« less

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations.

PubMed

Castro-Sánchez, Manuel; Zurita-Ortega, Félix; Chacón-Cuberos, Ramón; López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-05-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ² = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes.

Emotional Intelligence, Motivational Climate and Levels of Anxiety in Athletes from Different Categories of Sports: Analysis through Structural Equations

PubMed Central

López-Gutiérrez, Carlos Javier; Zafra-Santos, Edson

2018-01-01

(1) Background: Psychological factors can strongly affect the athletes’ performance. Therefore, currently the role of the sports psychologist is particularly relevant, being in charge of training the athlete’s psychological factors. This study aims at analysing the connections between motivational climate in sport, anxiety and emotional intelligence depending on the type of sport practised (individual/team) by means of a multigroup structural equations analysis. (2) 372 semi-professional Spanish athletes took part in this investigation, analysing motivational climate (PMCSQ-2), emotional intelligence (SSRI) and levels of anxiety (STAI). A model of multigroup structural equations was carried out which fitted accordingly (χ2 = 586.77; df = 6.37; p < 0.001; Comparative Fit Index (CFI) = 0.951; Normed Fit Index (NFI) = 0.938; Incremental Fit Index (IFI) = 0.947; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA) = 0.069). (3) Results: A negative and direct connection has been found between ego oriented climate and task oriented climate, which is stronger and more differentiated in team sports. The most influential indicator in ego oriented climate is intra-group rivalry, exerting greater influence in individual sports. For task-oriented climate the strongest indicator is having an important role in individual sports, while in team sports it is cooperative learning. Emotional intelligence dimensions correlate more strongly in team sports than in individual sports. In addition, there was a negative and indirect relation between task oriented climate and trait-anxiety in both categories of sports. (4) Conclusions: This study shows how the task-oriented motivational climate or certain levels of emotional intelligence can act preventively in the face of anxiety states in athletes. Therefore, the development of these psychological factors could prevent anxiety states and improve performance in athletes. PMID:29724008

Sources and Impacts of Modeled and Observed Low-Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Luke Alexander

Here we analyze climate variability using instrumental, paleoclimate (proxy), and the latest climate model data to understand more about the sources and impacts of low-frequency climate variability. Understanding the drivers of climate variability at interannual to century timescales is important for studies of climate change, including analyses of detection and attribution of climate change impacts. Additionally, correctly modeling the sources and impacts of variability is key to the simulation of abrupt change (Alley et al., 2003) and extended drought (Seager et al., 2005; Pelletier and Turcotte, 1997; Ault et al., 2014). In Appendix A, we employ an Earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) simulation to study the impacts of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the climate of the American Tropics. The AMOC drives some degree of local and global internal low-frequency climate variability (Manabe and Stouffer, 1995; Thornalley et al., 2009) and helps control the position of the tropical rainfall belt (Zhang and Delworth, 2005). We find that a major weakening of the AMOC can cause large-scale temperature, precipitation, and carbon storage changes in Central and South America. Our results suggest that possible future changes in AMOC strength alone will not be sufficient to drive a large-scale dieback of the Amazonian forest, but this key natural ecosystem is sensitive to dry-season length and timing of rainfall (Parsons et al., 2014). In Appendix B, we compare a paleoclimate record of precipitation variability in the Peruvian Amazon to climate model precipitation variability. The paleoclimate (Lake Limon) record indicates that precipitation variability in western Amazonia is 'red' (i.e., increasing variability with timescale). By contrast, most state-of-the-art climate models indicate precipitation variability in this region is nearly 'white' (i.e., equally variability across timescales). This paleo-model disagreement in the overall structure of the variance spectrum has important consequences for the probability of multi-year drought. Our lake record suggests there is a significant background threat of multi-year, and even decade-length, drought in western Amazonia, whereas climate model simulations indicate most droughts likely last no longer than one to three years. These findings suggest climate models may underestimate the future risk of extended drought in this important region. In Appendix C, we expand our analysis of climate variability beyond South America. We use observations, well-constrained tropical paleoclimate, and Earth system model data to examine the overall shape of the climate spectrum across interannual to century frequencies. We find a general agreement among observations and models that temperature variability increases with timescale across most of the globe outside the tropics. However, as compared to paleoclimate records, climate models generate too little low-frequency variability in the tropics (e.g., Laepple and Huybers, 2014). When we compare the shape of the simulated climate spectrum to the spectrum of a simple autoregressive process, we find much of the modeled surface temperature variability in the tropics could be explained by ocean smoothing of weather noise. Importantly, modeled precipitation tends to be similar to white noise across much of the globe. By contrast, paleoclimate records of various types from around the globe indicate that both temperature and precipitation variability should experience much more low-frequency variability than a simple autoregressive or white-noise process. In summary, state-of-the-art climate models generate some degree of dynamically driven low-frequency climate variability, especially at high latitudes. However, the latest climate models, observations, and paleoclimate data provide us with drastically different pictures of the background climate system and its associated risks. This research has important consequences for improving how we simulate climate extremes as we enter a warmer (and often drier) world in the coming centuries; if climate models underestimate low-frequency variability, we will underestimate the risk of future abrupt change and extreme events, such as megadroughts.

Influence of climate and land use change on spatially resolved volatilization of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from background soils.

PubMed

Komprda, Jiří; Komprdová, Klára; Sáňka, Milan; Možný, Martin; Nizzetto, Luca

2013-07-02

The subject of this study is the assessment of the influence of climate and land use change on the potential re-emission of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from background and agricultural soils. A deterministic spatially and temporally explicit model of the air-surface exchange was created, fed with distributed data of soil and atmospheric concentrations from real measurements, and run under various scenarios of temperature and land use change for a case study area representative of central European conditions. To describe land use influence, some important features were implemented including effect of plowing, influence of land cover, temperature of soil, and seasonal changes of air layer stability. Results show that volatilization of pesticides from soil largely exceeded dry gas deposition in most of the area. Agricultural soils accounted for more than 90% of the total re-emissions both because of the generally higher soil fugacities (higher loads of chemicals and relatively low organic carbon content), but also due to physical characteristics and land management practices enhancing the dynamics of the exchange. An increase of 1 °C in air temperature produced an increase of 8% in the averaged total volatilization flux, however this effect can be neutralized by a change of land use of 10% of the arable lands to grassland or forest, which is consistent with projected land use change in Europe. This suggests that future assessment of climate impact on POP fate and distribution should take into consideration land use aspects.

Hope, despair and transformation: Climate change and the promotion of mental health and wellbeing

PubMed Central

Fritze, Jessica G; Blashki, Grant A; Burke, Susie; Wiseman, John

2008-01-01

Background This article aims to provide an introduction to emerging evidence and debate about the relationship between climate change and mental health. Discussion and Conclusion The authors argue that: i) the direct impacts of climate change such as extreme weather events will have significant mental health implications; ii) climate change is already impacting on the social, economic and environmental determinants of mental health with the most severe consequences being felt by disadvantaged communities and populations; iii) understanding the full extent of the long term social and environmental challenges posed by climate change has the potential to create emotional distress and anxiety; and iv) understanding the psycho-social implications of climate change is also an important starting point for informed action to prevent dangerous climate change at individual, community and societal levels. PMID:18799005

Long term fluctuations of groundwater mine pollution in a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate: Implications for water resources management and remediation.

PubMed

Caraballo, Manuel A; Macías, Francisco; Nieto, José Miguel; Ayora, Carlos

2016-01-01

Water resources management and restoration strategies, and subsequently ecological and human life quality, are highly influenced by the presence of short and long term cycles affecting the intensity of a targeted pollution. On this respect, a typical acid mine drainage (AMD) groundwater from a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate (Iberian Pyrite Belt, SW Spain) was studied to unravel the effect of long term weather changes in water flow rate and metal pollutants concentration. Three well differentiated polluting stages were observed and the specific geochemical, mineralogical and hydrological processes involved (pyrite and enclosing rocks dissolution, evaporitic salts precipitation-redisolution and pluviometric long term fluctuations) were discussed. Evidencing the importance of including longer background monitoring stage in AMD management and restoration strategies, the present study strongly advise a minimum 5-years period of AMD continuous monitoring previous to the design of any AMD remediation system in regions with dry Mediterranean climate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of Hydrological Parameters on Palm Oil Fresh Fruit Bunch Yield)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nda, M.; Adnan, M. S.; Suhadak, M. A.; Zakaria, M. S.; Lopa, R. T.

2018-04-01

Climate change effects and variability have been studied by many researchers in diverse geophysical fields. Malaysia produces large volume of palm oil, the effects of climate change on hydrological parameters (rainfall and precipitation) could have adverse effects on palm oil fresh fruit bunch (FFB) production with implications at both local and international market. It is important to understand the effects of climate change on crop yield to adopt new cultivation techniques and guaranteeing food security globally. Based on this background, the paper’s objective is to investigate the effects of rainfall and temperature pattern on crop yield (FFB) within five years period (2013 - 2017) at Batu Pahat District. The Man - Kendall rank technique (trend test) and statistical analyses (correlation and regression) were applied to the dataset used for the study. The results reveal that there are variabilities in rainfall and temperature from one month to the other and the statistical analysis reveals that the hydrological parameters have an insignificant effect on crop yield.

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

PubMed Central

Natalia, Kukarenko

2011-01-01

Background Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. Methods A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Results Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Conclusion Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. PMID:21949499

Affordances and Challenges of Using Argument as a Connective Discourse for Scientific Practices to Teach Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.

2015-12-01

An important goal of science education is to support development of citizens to participate in public debate and make informed decisions relevant to their lives and their worlds. The NGSS (Next Generation Science Standards) suggest engaging students in science classrooms in argumentation as a practice to help enhance the quality of evidence based decision making. In this multi-case study, we explored the use of written argumentation in eight secondary school science classrooms during a lesson on the relationship between ocean temperature and its CO2 holding capacity. All teachers of these classrooms were trained during a day long NSF funded Climate Literacy Workshop on the basic concepts of climate science, scientific practices and implementation of an activity called "It's a Gassy World". The data of the current study involved students' written arguments, teachers' written reflections on the implementation of the activity as well as field notes from the Climate Literacy Workshop. A qualitative discourse analysis of the data was used to find common themes around affordances and challenges of argument as a connective discourse for scientific practices to teach climate change. The findings show that participating in written argumentation process encouraged students to discuss their experimental design and use data interpretation for their evidences. However, the results also indicated the following challenges: a) teachers themselves need support in connecting their evidence to their claims, b) arguing a socioscientific issue creates a sensitive environment c) conceptual quality of an argument needs to be strengthen through background in courses other than science, and d) graphing skills (or lack of) can interfere with constructing scientifically accurate claims. This study has implications in effectively teaching climate change through argumentation, and thus creating opportunities for practicing authentic climate science research in K-12 classrooms.

Climate Modeling in the Calculus and Differential Equations Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kose, Emek; Kunze, Jennifer

2013-01-01

Students in college-level mathematics classes can build the differential equations of an energy balance model of the Earth's climate themselves, from a basic understanding of the background science. Here we use variable albedo and qualitative analysis to find stable and unstable equilibria of such a model, providing a problem or perhaps a…

A School-University Research Partnership to Identify Disengaged Students: A Descriptive Case Analysis of School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biag, Manuelito D.; Sanchez, Monika A.

2016-01-01

Background/Context: Much of the literature on school-university research partnerships has focused on collaborations that address curriculum, instruction, and leadership. Less scholarly attention has been paid to how practitioners and academics work together to improve school climate. Purpose: We seek to deepen understanding of how educators and…

Results of the 2004 Marine Corps Climate Surveys (MCCS): Management Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-01

of Different Racial/Ethnic Backgrounds Socialize Together During Command Functions...organizational climate of the Marine Corps, equal opportunity and related issues such as sexual harassment and gender discrimination. Responses to the Marine...type of survey, the Marine Corps is able to gain insights into trends occurring in the equal opportunity and sexual harassment areas. The Marine

Facilitators to Promoting Health in Schools: Is School Health Climate the Key?*

PubMed Central

Lucarelli, Jennifer F.; Alaimo, Katherine; Mang, Ellen; Martin, Caroline; Miles, Richard; Bailey, Deborah; Kelleher, Deanne K.; Drzal, Nicholas B.; Liu, Hui

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Schools can promote healthy eating in adolescents. This study used a qualitative approach to examine barriers and facilitators to healthy eating in schools. METHODS Case studies were conducted with 8 low-income Michigan middle schools. Interviews were conducted with 1 administrator, the food service director, and 1 member of the coordinated school health team at each school. RESULTS Barriers included budgetary constraints leading to low prioritization of health initiatives; availability of unhealthy competitive foods; and perceptions that students would not eat healthy foods. Schools had made improvements to foods and increased nutrition education. Support from administrators, teamwork among staff, and acknowledging student preferences facilitated positive changes. Schools with a key set of characteristics, (presence of a coordinated school health team, nutrition policies, and a school health champion) made more improvements. CONCLUSIONS The set of key characteristics identified in successful schools may represent a school’s health climate. While models of school climate have been utilized in the educational field in relation to academic outcomes, a health-specific model of school climate would be useful in guiding school health practitioners and researchers and may improve the effectiveness of interventions aimed at improving student dietary intake and other health behaviors. PMID:25099428

[Evolution of maize climate productivity and its response to climate change in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Li, Xiu Fen; Zhao, Hui Ying; Zhu, Hai Xia; Wang, Ping; Wang, Qiu Jing; Wang, Ming; Li, Yu Guang

2016-08-01

Under the background of climate change, revealing the change trend and spatial diffe-rence of maize climate productivity in-depth and understanding the regularity of maize climatic resources utilization can provide scientific basis for the macro-decision of agricultural production in Heilongjiang Province. Based on the 1981-2014 meteorological data of 72 weather stations and the corresponding maize yield data in Heilongjiang Province, by the methods of step by step revisal, spatial interpolation and linear trend analysis, this paper studied the photosynthetic productivity (PP), light-temperature productivity (LTP), and climatic productivity (CP) of spring maize, and their temporal and spatial variation characteristics, main influencing factors and light energy utilization efficiency, and evaluated the maize climate productivities under different climate scenarios in the future. The results showed that during the study period, the mean PP, LTP and CP in Heilongjiang Province were 26558, 19953, 18742 kg·hm -2 , respectively. Maize PP, LTP and CP were high in plains and low in mountains, and gradually decreased from southwest to northeast. PP, LTP and CP presented significantly increasing trends, and the increase rates were 378, 723 and 560 kg·hm -2 ·(10 a) -1 , respectively. The increase of radiation and temperature had positive effect on maize production in Heilongjiang Province. The potential productivity of maize presented significant response to climate change. The decrease of solar radiation led to the decline of PP in western Songnen Plain, but the increased temperature compensated the negative effect of solar radiation, so the downward trend of LTP was slowed. The response to climate warming was particularly evident in North and East, and LTP was significantly increased, which was sensitive to the change of precipitation in southwest of Songnen Plain and part of Sanjiang Plain. The average ratio of maize actual yield to its climate productivity was only 24.1%, there was still 75.9% to be developed. In the future, the warm and wet climate would benefit the improvement of maize climate productivity, while the cold and dry climate would make an adverse impact.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Johanna

2017-04-01

In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

Climate Variability, Social and Environmental Factors, and Ross River Virus Transmission: Research Development and Future Research Needs

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Dale, Pat; Nicholls, Neville; Mackenzie, John S.; Wolff, Rodney; McMichael, Anthony J.

2008-01-01

Background Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined. Objective Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia. Methods We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches. Results The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system. Conclusions The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management. PMID:19079707

The effects of team-based learning techniques on nursing students' perception of the psycho-social climate of the classroom.

PubMed

Koohestani, Hamid Reza; Baghcheghi, Nayereh

2016-01-01

Background: Team-based learning is a structured type of cooperative learning that is becoming increasingly more popular in nursing education. This study compares levels of nursing students' perception of the psychosocial climate of the classroom between conventional lecture group and team-based learning group. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study with pretest-posttest design 38 nursing students of second year participated. One half of the 16 sessions of cardiovascular disease nursing course sessions was taught by lectures and the second half with team-based learning. The modified college and university classroom environment inventory (CUCEI) was used to measure the perception of classroom environment. This was completed after the final lecture and TBL sessions. Results: Results revealed a significant difference in the mean scores of psycho-social climate for the TBL method (Mean (SD): 179.8(8.27)) versus the mean score for the lecture method (Mean (SD): 154.213.44)). Also, the results showed significant differences between the two groups in the innovation (p<0.001), student cohesiveness (p=0.01), cooperation (p<0.001) and equity (p= 0.03) sub-scales scores (p<0.05). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that team-based learning does have a positive effect on nursing students' perceptions of their psycho-social climate of the classroom.

An Investigation of Technology Avoidance Effect into Higher Education Environments: Some Empirical Evidence of Marketing Students' Background and Their Use of Personal Computers Outside the Academic Culture

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spais, George S.; Vasileiou, Konstantinos Z.

2008-01-01

The major objective of this study was to test a research hypothesis in order to explain the technology avoidance effect in higher educational environments. We addressed the core research themes of our study using a survey. Our intention was to test marketing students' perceptions in order to investigate the potent influence of a climate of…

Orbital Sciences Pegasus XL AIM Processing

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-03-16

In a clean-room environment containing the AIM spacecraft (background) at North Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician studies results of illumination testing on the spacecraft's solar array panels. The AIM spacecraft will fly three instruments designed to study those clouds located at the edge of space, 50 miles above the Earth's surface in the coldest part of the planet's atmosphere. The mission's primary goal is to explain why these clouds form and what has caused them to become brighter and more numerous and appear at lower latitudes in recent years. AIM's results will provide the basis for the study of long-term variability in the mesospheric climate and its relationship to global climate change. AIM is scheduled to be mated to the Pegasus XL during the second week of April, after which final inspections will be conducted. Launch is scheduled for April 25.

Climate Change Adopted Building Envelope as A Protector of Human Health in the Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Januszkiewicz, Krystyna

2017-10-01

Recently, an expanded understanding of building performance acknowledges that all forces acting on buildings (climate, energies, information, and human agents) are not static and fixed, but rather mutable and transient. With the use of parametric and multi-criteria optimization digital tools, buildings’ envelopes can be designed to respond to various requirements. This paper explores the possibilities of architectural design to benefit human conditions, which encompasses mental well-being, environmental quality of life during the Climate Change era. The first part of the paper defines the main factors (such as: lack of green nature and sunlight, noise and pollution) which are influencing the formation of psychological disorder in big cities. The negative impact of these factors is constantly increasing in the time of Climate Change progressing. The second part presents results of the research program undertaken at West Pomeranian University of Technology in Szczecin by author. The program goes on to attempt to solve the problem through architectural design. This study highlights a social problem, such as mental well-being, resulting from urbanization or effects of the climate change, and serves as a useful background for further research on the possibilities of redefining sustainable and human friendly design.

Pre-surgery briefings and safety climate in the operating theatre.

PubMed

Allard, Jon; Bleakley, Alan; Hobbs, Adrian; Coombes, Lee

2011-08-01

In 2008, the WHO produced a surgical safety checklist against a background of a poor patient safety record in operating theatres. Formal team briefings are now standard practice in high-risk settings such as the aviation industry and improve safety, but are resisted in surgery. Research evidence is needed to persuade the surgical workforce to adopt safety procedures such as briefings. To investigate whether exposure to pre-surgery briefings is related to perception of safety climate. Three Safety Attitude Questionnaires, completed by operating theatre staff in 2003, 2004 and 2006, were used to evaluate the effects of an educational intervention introducing pre-surgery briefings. Individual practitioners who agree with the statement 'briefings are common in the operating theatre' also report a better 'safety climate' in operating theatres. The study reports a powerful link between briefing practices and attitudes towards safety. Findings build on previous work by reporting on the relationship between briefings and safety climate within a 4-year period. Briefings, however, remain difficult to establish in local contexts without appropriate team-based patient safety education. Success in establishing a safety culture, with associated practices, may depend on first establishing unidirectional, positive change in attitudes to create a safety climate.

The social environment of schools and adolescent nutrition: associations between the school nutrition climate and adolescents' eating behaviors and body mass index.

PubMed

Cvjetan, Branko; Utter, Jennifer; Robinson, Elizabeth; Denny, Simon

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine the association between the school nutrition climate and students' eating behaviors and body mass index (BMI). Data were collected as part of Youth'07, a nationally representative health survey of high school students in New Zealand. Overall, 9107 randomly selected students from 96 randomly selected schools participated. School-level measures were created by aggregating students' reports within schools. Analyses were conducted using multilevel modeling, accounting for student-level characteristics. There was a positive association between the school nutrition climate and students' consumption of fruits and vegetables. This relationship was statistically significant after controlling for the background characteristics of students. There were no associations between the school nutrition climate and students' junk food consumption or BMI. The school nutrition climate appears to have a positive influence on adolescents' healthy eating behaviors (fruit and vegetable intake), but a limited effect on unhealthy eating behaviors and ultimately body weight. This may reflect the pervasiveness of junk food in the environments of adolescents outside of school and the difficulty in limiting its consumption. © 2014, American School Health Association.

Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. Results Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15–20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. Conclusions Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy. PMID:23369380

Dengue Vector Dynamics (Aedes aegypti) Influenced by Climate and Social Factors in Ecuador: Implications for Targeted Control

PubMed Central

Stewart Ibarra, Anna M.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beltrán, Efrain; Mejía, Raúl; Silva, Mercy; Muñoz, Ángel

2013-01-01

Background Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is now the fastest spreading tropical disease globally. Previous studies indicate that climate and human behavior interact to influence dengue virus and vector (Aedes aegypti) population dynamics; however, the relative effects of these variables depends on local ecology and social context. We investigated the roles of climate and socio-ecological factors on Ae. aegypti population dynamics in Machala, a city in southern coastal Ecuador where dengue is hyper-endemic. Methods/Principal findings We studied two proximate urban localities where we monitored weekly Ae. aegypti oviposition activity (Nov. 2010-June 2011), conducted seasonal pupal surveys, and surveyed household to identify dengue risk factors. The results of this study provide evidence that Ae. aegypti population dynamics are influenced by social risk factors that vary by season and lagged climate variables that vary by locality. Best-fit models to predict the presence of Ae. aegypti pupae included parameters for household water storage practices, access to piped water, the number of households per property, condition of the house and patio, and knowledge and perceptions of dengue. Rainfall and minimum temperature were significant predictors of oviposition activity, although the effect of rainfall varied by locality due to differences in types of water storage containers. Conclusions These results indicate the potential to reduce the burden of dengue in this region by conducting focused vector control interventions that target high-risk households and containers in each season and by developing predictive models using climate and non-climate information. These findings provide the region's public health sector with key information for conducting time and location-specific vector control campaigns, and highlight the importance of local socio-ecological studies to understand dengue dynamics. See Text S1 for an executive summary in Spanish. PMID:24324542

Effects of Climatic Region on Peritonitis Risk, Microbiology, Treatment, and Outcomes: a Multicenter Registry Study

PubMed Central

Cho, Yeoungjee; Badve, Sunil V.; Hawley, Carmel M.; McDonald, Stephen P.; Brown, Fiona G.; Boudville, Neil; Wiggins, Kathryn J.; Bannister, Kym M.; Clayton, Philip; Johnson, David W.

2013-01-01

♦ Background: The impact of climatic variations on peritoneal dialysis (PD)-related peritonitis has not been studied in detail. The aim of the current study was to determine whether various climatic zones influenced the probability of occurrence or the clinical outcomes of peritonitis. ♦ Methods: Using ANZDATA registry data, the study in cluded all Australian patients receiving PD between 1 October 2003 and 31 December 2008. Climatic regions were defined according to the Köppen classification. ♦ Results: The overall peritonitis rate was 0.59 episodes per patient-year. Most of the patients lived in Temperate regions (65%), with others residing in Subtropical (26%), Tropical (6%), and Other climatic regions (Desert, 0.6%; Grassland, 2.3%). Compared with patients in Temperate regions, those in Tropical regions demonstrated significantly higher overall peritonitis rates and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode [adjusted hazard ratio: 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01 to 1.31]. Culture-negative peritonitis was significantly less likely in Tropical regions [adjusted odds ratio (OR): 0.42; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.73]; its occurrence in Subtropical and Other regions was comparable to that in Temperate regions. Fungal peritonitis was independently associated with Tropical regions (OR: 2.18; 95% CI: 1.22 to 3.90) and Other regions (OR: 3.46; 95% CI: 1.73 to 6.91), where rates of antifungal prophylaxis were also lower. Outcomes after first peritonitis episodes were comparable in all groups. ♦ Conclusions: Tropical regions were associated with a higher overall peritonitis rate (including fungal peritonitis) and a shorter time to a first peritonitis episode. Augmented peritonitis prophylactic measures such as antifungal therapy and exit-site care should be considered in PD patients residing in Tropical climates. PMID:22942270

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Public Health and Climate Change Adaptation at the Federal Level: One Agency’s Response to Executive Order 13514

PubMed Central

Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change. PMID:24432931

Public health and climate change adaptation at the federal level: one agency's response to Executive Order 13514.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2014-03-01

Climate change will likely have adverse human health effects that require federal agency involvement in adaptation activities. In 2009, President Obama issued Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance. The order required federal agencies to develop and implement climate change adaptation plans. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as part of a larger Department of Health and Human Services response to climate change, is developing such plans. We provide background on Executive Orders, outline tenets of climate change adaptation, discuss public health adaptation planning at both the Department of Health and Human Services and the CDC, and outline possible future CDC efforts. We also consider how these activities may be better integrated with other adaptation activities that manage emerging health threats posed by climate change.

Can we use the past as a lens to the future? Using historic events to predict regional grassland and shrubland responses to multi-year drought or wet periods under climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Water availability is the primary driver of ecosystem processes in temperate grasslands and shrublands, but uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of change in precipita...

Comparisons of allometric and climate-derived estimates of tree coarse root carbon stocks in forests of the United States

Treesearch

Matthew B. Russell; Grant M. Domke; Christopher W. Woodall; Anthony W. D' Amato

2015-01-01

Background: Refined estimation of carbon (C) stocks within forest ecosystems is a critical component of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of projected climate change through forest C management. Specifically, belowground C stocks are currently estimated in the United States' national greenhouse gas inventory (US NGHGI) using...

Sierra Nevada forests: Where did they come from? Where are they going? What does it mean?

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar; Wallace B. Woolfenden

1999-01-01

The prospect of human-induced global warning has received centerstage attention from ecologists concerned about future ecosystems. While such effects deserve critical analysis, they are best understood in the context of natural climate change. Anthropogenic atmospheric effects are often discussed as if background climates were stable (Mahlman 1997). Even in the recent...

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Teaching the Intersection of Climate and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, C.; Ting, M.; Orlove, B. S.

2014-12-01

As the first program of its kind, the M.A. in Climate and Society at Columbia University educates students on how climate affects society and vice versa. The 12-month interdisciplinary Master's program is designed to allow students from a wide variety of backgrounds to gain knowledge in climate science and a deep understanding of social sciences and how they related to climate. There are currently more than 250 alumni applying their skills in fields including energy, economics, disaster mitigation, journalism and climate research in more than a dozen countries worldwide. The presentation will highlight three key components of the program that have contributed to its growth and helped alumni become brokers that can effectively put climate science in the hands of the public and policymakers for the benefit of society. Those components include working with other academic departments at Columbia to successfully integrate social science classes into the curriculum; the development of the course Applications in Climate and Society to help students make an overt link between climate and its impacts on society; and providing students with hands-on activities with practitioners in climate-related fields.

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

The appeasement effect of a United Nations climate summit on the German public

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, Michael; de Silva-Schmidt, Fenja; Hoppe, Imke; Arlt, Dorothee; Schmitt, Josephine B.

2017-11-01

The annual UN climate summits receive intense global media coverage, and as such could engage local publics around the world, stimulate debate and knowledge about climate politics, and, ultimately, mobilize people to combat climate change. Here we show that, in contrast to these hopes, although the German public were exposed to news about the 2015 Paris summit, they did not engage with it in a more active way. Comparing knowledge and attitudes before, during and after the summit using a three-wave online panel survey (quota sample, N = 1,121), we find that respondents learnt a few basic facts about the conference but they continue to lack basic background knowledge about climate policy. Trust in global climate policy increased a little, but citizens were less inclined to support a leading role for Germany in climate politics. Moreover, they were not more likely to engage personally in climate protection. These results suggest that this global media event had a modest appeasing rather than mobilizing effect.

Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Rabbit Populations through Reproduction

PubMed Central

Tablado, Zulima; Revilla, Eloy

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is affecting many physical and biological processes worldwide. Anticipating its effects at the level of populations and species is imperative, especially for organisms of conservation or management concern. Previous studies have focused on estimating future species distributions and extinction probabilities directly from current climatic conditions within their geographical ranges. However, relationships between climate and population parameters may be so complex that to make these high-level predictions we need first to understand the underlying biological processes driving population size, as well as their individual response to climatic alterations. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the influence that climate change may have on species population dynamics through altering breeding season. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a mechanistic model based on drivers of rabbit reproductive physiology together with demographic simulations to show how future climate-driven changes in breeding season result in contrasting rabbit population trends across Europe. In the Iberian Peninsula, where rabbits are a native species of high ecological and economic value, breeding seasons will shorten and become more variable leading to population declines, higher extinction risk, and lower resilience to perturbations. Whereas towards north-eastern countries, rabbit numbers are expected to increase through longer and more stable reproductive periods, which augment the probability of new rabbit invasions in those areas. Conclusions/Significance Our study reveals the type of mechanisms through which climate will cause alterations at the species level and emphasizes the need to focus on them in order to better foresee large-scale complex population trends. This is especially important in species like the European rabbit whose future responses may aggravate even further its dual keystone/pest problematic. Moreover, this approach allows us to predict not only distribution shifts but also future population status and growth, and to identify the demographic parameters on which to focus to mitigate global change effects. PMID:23152836

Association of climatic factors with infectious diseases in the Arctic and subarctic region – a systematic review

PubMed Central

Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara

2014-01-01

Background The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. Objectives To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. Methods A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. Results In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. Conclusions More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and climatic factors in the Arctic and subarctic region. No studies from Greenland or Iceland were found, and only a few from Siberia and Alaska. Disease and syndromic surveillance should be part of climate change adaptation measures in the Arctic and subarctic regions, with monitoring of extreme weather events known to pose a risk for certain infectious diseases implemented at the community level. PMID:24990685

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Analysis on the Climate Change Characteristics of Dianchi Lake Basin under the Background of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhenyu, Yu; Luo, Yi; Yang, Kun; Qiongfei, Deng

2017-05-01

Based on the data published by the State Statistical Bureau and the weather station data, the annual mean temperature, wind speed, humidity, light duration and precipitation of Dianchi Lake in 1990 ~ 2014 were analysed. Combined with the population The results show that the climatic changes in Dianchi Lake basin are related to the climatic change in the past 25 years, and the correlation between these factors and the main climatic factors are analysed by linear regression, Mann-Kendall test, cumulative anomaly, R/S and Morlet wavelet analysis. Population, housing construction area growth and other aspects of the correlation trends and changes in the process, revealing the population expansion and housing construction area growth on the climate of the main factors of the cycle tendency of significant impact.

Effectiveness of carbon dioxide removal in lowering atmospheric CO2 and reversing global warming in the context of 1.5 degrees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Azevedo, D.

2017-12-01

The majority of emissions scenarios that limit warming to 2°C, and nearly all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5°C warming by the year 2100 require artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies in these scenarios are required to offset emissions from sectors that are difficult or costly to decarbonize and to generate global `net negative' emissions, allowing to compensate for earlier emissions and to meet long-term climate stabilization targets after overshoot. Only a few studies have explored the Earth system response to CDR and large uncertainties exist regarding the effect of CDR on the carbon cycle and its effectiveness in reversing climate impacts after overshoot. Here we explore the effectiveness of CDR in lowering atmospheric CO2 ("carbon cycle effectiveness") and cool global climate ("cooling effectiveness"). We force the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, a model of intermediate complexity, with a set of negative CO2 emissions pulses of different magnitude and applied from different background atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find the carbon cycle effectiveness of CDR - defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit CO2 removed - decreases with the amount of CO2 removed from the atmosphere and increases at higher background CO2 concentrations from which CDR is applied due to nonlinear responses of carbon sinks to CO2 and climate. The cooling effectiveness - defined as the change in global mean surface air temperature per unit CO2 removed - on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the amount of CO2 removed, but decreases if CDR is applied at higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations, due to the logarithmic relationship between atmospheric CO2 and radiative forcing. Based on our results we conclude that CDR is more effective in restoring a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration and reversing impacts directly linked to CO2 at lower levels of overshoot. CDR's effectiveness in restoring a cooler climate, on the other hand, is largely insensitive to the level of overshoot.

From the Cheap Seats: One Consideration of School-Based PE's Position in Contemporary American Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCullick, Bryan A.

2014-01-01

Background: As the USA enters the second decade of the twenty-first century, it does so in a polarized political, social, and educational climate heretofore unseen in its relatively short history. Such a climate has implications for what role schools play in American society and especially how school-based physical education (SBPE) may need to…

Core Curriculum in Preventing and Reducing School Violence and Vandalism. Course 3: School Climate. Participant Guide and Reference Notebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center for Human Services, Washington, DC.

This guide, intended for participants in the third course of the National School Resource Network Core Curriculum, contains an activity/content summary for each module of the course, worksheets, and background materials. The purpose of the course is to introduce a conceptual overview and definition of "school climate" with the goal of effecting…

High School Teachers and Students Knowledge and Views about Climate Change, a Nice NASA Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.; Lambert, J. L.

2014-12-01

One factor for some Americans being confused about climate change is their lack of understanding its underlying science concepts (Somerville & Hassol, 2011). In spite of this, climate change has been under-emphasized in school curricula (Bardsley & Bardsley, 2007). This is an important challenge for science educators, especially given the increasing public awareness of climate change impacts in their everyday lives (NCADAC, 2013).One way to address this challenge is to involve teachers in professional learning projects with the expectation that their enhanced content and pedagogical knowledge about climate change will transfer into more effective instruction resulting in increased student learning. For teacher educators, this translates into providing vibrant professional learning activities that energize and engage science teachers to develop interesting lessons that stimulate their students to learn important science concepts and develop positive attitudes to science. This study examined content knowledge and views about climate change of 33 high school science teachers and their1050 students who participated in lessons developed in a NASA-funded professional learning project. The teachers participated in a seven-day climate change summer institute and received in-classroom follow-up support throughout the school year. Teacher data sources included a background survey (undergraduate majors, number of years teaching science), science teaching self-efficacy (STEBI-A) scores, Climate Science Inventory of Knowledge (CSIK), and Six-America's Views on Climate Change. Student data included journal entries, and pre-post measures using the CSIK and Six-Americas instruments. T-tests and ANOVA showed that both students and their teachers increased in climate science knowledge. Teachers' views about climate change were more aligned to climate scientists' views. Teachers also increased in their science teaching self-efficacy and those with higher self-efficacy demonstrated higher climate change science knowledge. In addition to these data, the professional learning model and examples of the hands-on activities utilized by teachers will be shared in this presentation. The Logic Model is included below to provide an overall picture of the project.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis

PubMed Central

Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Background This review assessed Ethiopia’s existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. Methods The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Results Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Conclusion Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country. PMID:28867919

The Mars Climate Orbiter is prepared for launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility-2 (SAEF-2), the Mars Climate Orbiter (background) is moved toward the workstand being readied by technicians (foreground). The Mars Climate Orbiter is heading for Mars where it will primarily support its companion Mars Polar Lander spacecraft, planned for launch on Jan. 3, 1999. After that, the Mars Climate Orbiter's instruments will monitor the Martian atmosphere and image the planet's surface on a daily basis for one Martian year (two Earth years). It will observe the appearance and movement of atmospheric dust and water vapor, as well as characterize seasonal changes on the surface. The detailed images of the surface features will provide important clues to the planet's early climate history and give scientists more information about possible liquid water reserves beneath the surface. The scheduled launch date for the Mars Climate Orbiter is Dec. 10, 1998, on a Boeing Delta II 7425 rocket.

Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden

PubMed Central

Furberg, Maria; Evengård, Birgitta; Nilsson, Maria

2011-01-01

Background The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes. Objective To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami. Study design In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. Results One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding. Conclusions The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies. PMID:22043218

Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Chen, Po-Jiang

2017-01-01

Background Southern Taiwan has been a hotspot for dengue fever transmission since 1998. During 2014 and 2015, Taiwan experienced unprecedented dengue outbreaks and the causes are poorly understood. This study aims to investigate the influence of regional and local climate conditions on the incidence of dengue fever in Taiwan, as well as to develop a climate-based model for future forecasting. Methodology/Principle findings Historical time-series data on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998 to 2015 were investigated. Local climate variables were analyzed using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), and the model of best fit was used to predict dengue incidence between 2013 and 2015. The cross-wavelet coherence approach was used to evaluate the regional El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) effects on dengue incidence and local climate variables. The DLNM results highlighted the important non-linear and lag effects of minimum temperature and precipitation. Minimum temperature above 23°C or below 17°C can increase dengue incidence rate with lag effects of 10 to 15 weeks. Moderate to high precipitation can increase dengue incidence rates with a lag of 10 or 20 weeks. The model of best fit successfully predicted dengue transmission between 2013 and 2015. The prediction accuracy ranged from 0.7 to 0.9, depending on the number of weeks ahead of the prediction. ENSO and IOD were associated with nonstationary inter-annual patterns of dengue transmission. IOD had a greater impact on the seasonality of local climate conditions. Conclusions/Significance Our findings suggest that dengue transmission can be affected by regional and local climatic fluctuations in southern Taiwan. The climate-based model developed in this study can provide important information for dengue early warning systems in Taiwan. Local climate conditions might be influenced by ENSO and IOD, to result in unusual dengue outbreaks. PMID:28575035

The relationship between voice climate and patients’ experience of timely care in primary care clinics

PubMed Central

Nembhard, Ingrid M.; Yuan, Christina T.; Shabanova, Veronika; Cleary, Paul D.

2017-01-01

Background Aspects of the patient care experience, despite being central to quality care, are often problematic. In particular, patients frequently report problems with timeliness of care. As yet, research offers little insight on setting characteristics that contribute to patients’ experience of timely care. Purpose The aims of this study were to assess the relationship between organizational climate and patients’ reports of timely care in primary care clinics and to broadly examine the link between staff’s work environment and patient care experiences. We test hypotheses about the relationship between voice climate—staff feeling safe to speak up about issues—and reported timeliness of care, consistency in reported voice climate across professions, and how climate differences for various professions relate to timely care. Methodology We conducted a cross-sectional study of employees (n = 1,121) and patients (n = 8,164) affiliated with 37 clinics participating in a statewide reporting initiative. Employees were surveyed about clinics’ voice climate, and patients were surveyed about the timeliness of care. Hypotheses were tested using analysis of variance and generalized estimating equations. Findings Clinical and administrative staff (e.g., nurses and office assistants) reported clinics’ climates to be significantly less supportive of voice than did clinical leaders (e.g., physicians). The greater the difference in reported support for voice between professional groups, the less patients reported experiencing timely care in three respects: obtaining an appointment, seeing the doctor within 15 minutes of appointment time, and receiving test results. In clinics where staff reported climates supportive of voice, patients indicated receiving more timely care. Clinical leaders’ reports of voice climate had no relationship to reported timeliness of care. Practical Implications Our findings suggest the importance of clinics developing a strong climate for voice, particularly for clinical and administrative staff, to support better service quality for patients. PMID:24589927

Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%), severe weather (68%) and poor air-quality (57%). Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into policies and programs, while higher levels of government must improve efforts to support local adaptation and provide the capacity through which local adaptation can succeed. PMID:22712716

AMOC response to global warming: dependence on the background climate and response timescale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jiang; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Jiaxu; Liu, Wei

2015-06-01

This paper investigates the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden doubling of atmospheric CO2 in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3, with a focus on differences under different background climates. The findings reveal that the evolution of the AMOC differs significantly between the modern climate and the last glacial maximum (LGM). In the modern climate, the AMOC decreases (by 25 %, 4 Sv) in the first 100 years and then recovers slowly (by 6 %, 1 Sv) by the end of the 1,500-year simulation. At the LGM, the AMOC also weakens (by 8 %, 1 Sv) in the initial 90 years, but then recovers, first rapidly (by 30 %, 4 Sv) over the following 300 years, and then slowly (by 13 %, 1.6 Sv) during the remainder of the integration. These results suggest that the responses of the AMOC under both climates have a similar initial rapid weakening period of ~100 years and a final slow strengthening period over 1,000 years long. However, additional intermediate period of ~300 years does occur for the LGM, with rapid intensification in the AMOC. Analyses suggest that the rapid intensification is triggered and sustained primarily by a coupled sea ice-ocean feedback: the reduction of meltwater flux in the northern North Atlantic—associated with the remarkable sea-ice retreat at the LGM—intensifies the AMOC and northward heat transport, which, in turn, causes further sea-ice retreat and more reduction of meltwater. These processes are insignificant under modern conditions.

[Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change].

PubMed

Lin, Li; Jin, Ling; Wang, Zhen-Heng; Cui, Zhi-Jia; Ma, Yi

2017-07-01

To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of climate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution information, climate data of contemporary (1950-2000) and future (20-80 decade of 21 century), and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions.The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284.506 949×104 km2, accounted for 29.6% of the land area of China.The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area.Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

KSC-07pd0705

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-03-16

VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, CALIF. -- In a clean-room environment containing the AIM spacecraft (background) at North Vandenberg Air Force Base, a technician studies results of illumination testing on the spacecraft's solar array panels. The AIM spacecraft will fly three instruments designed to study those clouds located at the edge of space, 50 miles above the Earth's surface in the coldest part of the planet's atmosphere. The mission's primary goal is to explain why these clouds form and what has caused them to become brighter and more numerous and appear at lower latitudes in recent years. AIM's results will provide the basis for the study of long-term variability in the mesospheric climate and its relationship to global climate change. AIM is scheduled to be mated to the Pegasus XL during the second week of April, after which final inspections will be conducted. Launch is scheduled for April 25.

The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

2015-04-01

The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

Strategic needs of water on the Yukon: an interdisciplinary approach to studying hydrology and climate change in the Lower Yukon River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Schuster, Paul F.

2014-01-01

Strategic Needs of Water on the Yukon (SNOWY) is an interdisciplinary research project funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF; http://www.nsf.gov/). The SNOWY team is made up of a diverse group of researchers from different backgrounds and organizations. This partnership between scientists from different disciplines (hydrology, geography, and social science), government agencies, nonprofit organizations, universities, and Lower Yukon River Basin (LYRB) and Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta communities provided an opportunity to study the effects of climate change using a holistic approach. The Arctic and Subarctic are experiencing environmental change at a rate faster than the rest of the world, and the lack of historical baseline data in these often remote locations makes understanding and predicting regional climate change difficult. This project focused on collecting data to fill in these gaps by using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies to tell the story of environmental change in this region as told by the physical data and the people who rely on this landscape.

KSC-98pc1822

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-12-02

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- On Pad 17B, Cape Canaveral Air Station, a solid rocket booster waits for mating with the Delta II rocket (in background) carrying the Mars Polar Lander. The rocket will be used to launch the Mars Polar Lander on Jan. 3, 1999. The lander is a solar-powered spacecraft designed to touch down on the Martian surface near the northern-most boundary of the south pole in order to study the water cycle there. The lander also will help scientists learn more about climate change and current resources on Mars, studying such things as frost, dust, water vapor and condensates in the Martian atmosphere. It is the second spacecraft to be launched in a pair of Mars '98 missions. The first is the Mars Climate Orbiter, to be launched aboard a Delta II rocket from Launch Complex 17A in December 1998

A case study of effects of atmospheric boundary layer turbulence, wind speed, and stability on wind farm induced temperature changes using observations from a field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Geng; Zhou, Liming; Freedman, Jeffrey M.; Roy, Somnath Baidya; Harris, Ronald A.; Cervarich, Matthew Charles

2016-04-01

Recent studies using satellite observations show that operational wind farms in west-central Texas increase local nighttime land surface temperature (LST) by 0.31-0.70 °C, but no noticeable impact is detected during daytime, and that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the magnitude of this warming are likely determined by those in the magnitude of wind speed. This paper further explores these findings by using the data from a year-long field campaign and nearby radiosonde observations to investigate how thermodynamic profiles and surface-atmosphere exchange processes work in tandem with the presence of wind farms to affect the local climate. Combined with satellite data analyses, we find that wind farm impacts on LST are predominantly determined by the relative ratio of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) induced by the wind turbines compared to the background TKE. This ratio explains not only the day-night contrast of the wind farm impact and the warming magnitude of nighttime LST over the wind farms, but also most of the seasonal variations in the nighttime LST changes. These results indicate that the diurnal and seasonal variations in the turbine-induced turbulence relative to the background TKE play an essential role in determining those in the magnitude of LST changes over the wind farms. In addition, atmospheric stability determines the sign and strength of the net downward heat transport as well as the magnitude of the background TKE. The study highlights the need for better understanding of atmospheric boundary layer and wind farm interactions, and for better parameterizations of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

Hydrologic and water quality sensitivity to climate and land ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page describes a current EPA ORD project. No project report or other download is available at this time. Please see the section Next Steps below for a timeline of anticipated products of this work. Background: Projected changes in climate during the next century could cause or contribute to increased flooding, drought, water quality degradation, and ecosystem impairment. The effects of climate change in different watersheds will vary due to regional differences in climate change, physiographic setting, and interaction with land-use, pollutant sources, and water management in different locations. EPA is conducting watershed modeling to develop hydrologic and water quality change scenarios for 20 relatively large U.S. watersheds. Watershed modeling will be conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed models. Study areas range from about 10,000-15,000 square miles in size, and will cover nearly every ecoregion in the United States and a range of hydro-climatic conditions. A range of hydrologic and water quality endpoints will be determined for each watershed simulation. Endpoints will be selected to inform upon a range of stream flow, water quality, aquatic ecosystem, and EPA program management goals and targets. Model simulations will be conducted to evaluate a range of projected future (2040-2070) changes in climate and land-use. Simulations will include baseline conditions,

Evaluation of Probable Maximum Precipitation and Flood under Climate Change in the 21st Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Rastogi, D.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Kabela, E.; Anantharaj, V. G.; Singh, N.; Preston, B. L.; Mei, R.

2016-12-01

Critical infrastructures are potentially vulnerable to extreme hydro-climatic events. Under a warming environment, the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and flood are likely to increase enhancing the needs to more accurately quantify the risks due to climate change. In this study, we utilized an integrated modeling framework that includes the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and a high resolution distributed hydrology soil vegetation model (DHSVM) to simulate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and flood (PMF) events over Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin. A total of 120 storms were selected to simulate moisture maximized PMP under different meteorological forcings, including historical storms driven by Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and baseline (1981-2010), near term future (2021-2050) and long term future (2071-2100) storms driven by Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) under Representative Concentrations Pathway 8.5 emission scenario. We also analyzed the sensitivity of PMF to various antecedent hydrologic conditions such as initial soil moisture conditions and tested different compulsive approaches. Overall, a statistical significant increase is projected for future PMP and PMF, mainly attributed to the increase of background air temperature. The ensemble of simulated PMP and PMF along with their sensitivity allows us to better quantify the potential risks associated with hydro-climatic extreme events on critical energy-water infrastructures such as major hydropower dams and nuclear power plants.

EarthNow: Weather and Climate Connections for 3D Spherical Displays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowley, P.; Ackerman, S. A.; Arkin, P. A.; Pisut, D.; Kohrs, R.; Mooney, M. E.; Schollaert, S. E.

2012-12-01

The NOAA Science on a Sphere (SOS) is one of the fastest growing museum and science center exhibits worldwide, with over 80 installations. Rightfully so—few other exhibits captivate and mystify audiences in the way SOS does. Harnessing audience excitement about the science, especially climate change and real-time weather, however, has been challenging for docents. The EarthNow project (http://sphere.ssec.wisc.edu) from the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) allows SOS institutions to go beyond the scientific facts to create meaningful visitor experiences about weather and climate connections. CIMSS, in collaboration with the NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab and the Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, regularly updates a blog-style website, providing a central location for SOS facilitators to find timely weather and climate stories to speak about how current events affect and are affected by global change. Along with these stories, the website also provides relevant, visually appealing SOS-formatted datasets and animations with appropriate annotations, leading to easier comprehension by presenters and the public. Along with discussing the logistics and background of the EarthNow project, this presentation will review the results of our front-end and formative evaluations. The evaluation results will not only allow us to showcase how museums and science centers are using EarthNow, but also what museums need to tackle complex and contentious issues like global climate change.;

Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.

PubMed

Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan

2014-01-01

Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.

Teamwork in the NICU setting and its association with healthcare-associated infections in very low birth weight infants

PubMed Central

Profit, Jochen; Sharek, Paul J.; Kan, Peiyi; Rigdon, Joseph; Desai, Manisha; Nisbet, Courtney C.; Tawfik, Daniel S.; Thomas, Eric J.; Lee, Henry C.; Sexton, J. Bryan

2018-01-01

Background and Objective Teamwork may affect clinical care in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) setting. The objective of this study was to assess teamwork climate across NICUs and to test scale level and item level associations with healthcare-associated infection (HAI) rates in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Methods Cross-sectional study of the association between HAI rates, defined as any bacterial or fungal infection during the birth hospitalization, among 6663 VLBW infants cared for in 44 NICUs between 2010 and 2012. NICU HAI rates were correlated with teamwork climate ratings obtained in 2011 from 2073 of 3294 eligible (response rate 63%) NICU health professionals. The relation between HAI rates and NICU teamwork climate was assessed using logistic regression models including NICU as a random effect. Results Across NICUs, 36 to 100% (mean 66%) of respondents reported good teamwork. HAI rates were significantly and independently associated with teamwork climate (OR [95% CI] 0.82 [0.73-0.92], p = 0.005), such that the odds of an infant contracting a HAI decreased by 18% with each 10% rise in NICU respondents reporting good teamwork. Conclusion Improving teamwork may be an important element in infection control efforts. PMID:28395366

Safety climate and the theory of planned behavior: towards the prediction of unsafe behavior.

PubMed

Fogarty, Gerard J; Shaw, Andrew

2010-09-01

The present study is concerned with the human factors that contribute to violations in aviation maintenance. Much of our previous research in this area has been based on safety climate surveys and the analysis of relations among core dimensions of climate. In this study, we tap into mainstream psychological theory to help clarify the mechanisms underlying the links between climate and behavior. Specifically, we demonstrate the usefulness of Ajzen's (1991, 2001) Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to understanding violation behaviors in aircraft maintenance. A questionnaire was administered to 307 aircraft maintenance workers. Constructs measured by the survey included perceptions of management attitudes to safety, own attitudes to violations, intention to violate, group norms, workplace pressures, and violations. A model based on the TPB illustrated hypothetical connections among these variables. Path analyses using AMOS suggested some theoretically justifiable modifications to the model. Fit statistics of the revised model were excellent with intentions, group norms, and personal attitudes combining to explain 50% of the variance in self-reported violations. The model highlighted the importance of management attitudes and group norms as direct and indirect predictors of violation behavior. We conclude that the TPB is a useful tool for understanding the psychological background to the procedural violations so often associated with incidents and accidents. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

Fungi of Mount Babia Gora. 3: The indicating value of macromycetes in the forest associations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bujakiewicz, A.

1984-01-01

The results of a mycological investigation of the forests of the upper mountain forest zone of Mt. Babia Gora and the synthetic characteristics of participation of macromycetes in all the forests studied are presented. Regularities and distinct connections were found in the occurrence of macromycetes on the background of various forest associations, differences in exposure, orography, climate, and changes induced by man.

The effects of team-based learning techniques on nursing students’ perception of the psycho-social climate of the classroom

PubMed Central

Koohestani, Hamid Reza; Baghcheghi, Nayereh

2016-01-01

Background: Team-based learning is a structured type of cooperative learning that is becoming increasingly more popular in nursing education. This study compares levels of nursing students’ perception of the psychosocial climate of the classroom between conventional lecture group and team-based learning group. Methods: In a quasi-experimental study with pretest-posttest design 38 nursing students of second year participated. One half of the 16 sessions of cardiovascular disease nursing course sessions was taught by lectures and the second half with team-based learning. The modified college and university classroom environment inventory (CUCEI) was used to measure the perception of classroom environment. This was completed after the final lecture and TBL sessions. Results: Results revealed a significant difference in the mean scores of psycho-social climate for the TBL method (Mean (SD): 179.8(8.27)) versus the mean score for the lecture method (Mean (SD): 154.213.44)). Also, the results showed significant differences between the two groups in the innovation (p<0.001), student cohesiveness (p=0.01), cooperation (p<0.001) and equity (p= 0.03) sub-scales scores (p<0.05). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that team-based learning does have a positive effect on nursing students’ perceptions of their psycho-social climate of the classroom. PMID:28210602

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

PubMed

Rodda, Gordon H; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Reed, Robert N

2011-02-09

Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Hondula, David M.; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-01-01

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. Objectives: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. Methods: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Results: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Conclusions: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 PMID:28885979

Study of gravity waves propagation in the thermosphere of Mars based on MAVEN/NGIMS density measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vals, M.

2017-09-01

We use MAVEN/NGIMS CO2 density measurements to analyse gravity waves in the thermosphere of Mars. In particular the seasonal/latitudinal variability of their amplitude is studied and interpreted. Key background parameters controlling the activity of gravity waves are analysed with the help of the Mars Climate Database (MCD). Gravity waves activity presents a good anti-correlation to the temperature variability retrieved from the MCD. An analysis at pressure levels is ongoing.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll.

PubMed

Cody, Emily M; Reagan, Andrew J; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M

2015-01-01

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness.

Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

2015-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

Influence of lag effect, soil release, and climate change on watershed anthropogenic nitrogen inputs and riverine export dynamics.

PubMed

Chen, Dingjiang; Huang, Hong; Hu, Minpeng; Dahlgren, Randy A

2014-05-20

This study demonstrates the importance of the nitrogen-leaching lag effect, soil nitrogen release, and climate change on anthropogenic N inputs (NANI) and riverine total nitrogen (TN) export dynamics using a 30-yr record for the Yongan River watershed in eastern China. Cross-correlation analysis indicated a 7-yr, 5-yr, and 4-yr lag time in riverine TN export in response to changes in NANI, temperature, and drained agricultural land area, respectively. Enhanced by warmer temperature and improved agricultural drainage, the upper 20 cm of agricultural soils released 270 kg N ha(-1) between 1980 and 2009. Climate change also increased the fractional export of NANI to river. An empirical model (R(2) = 0.96) for annual riverine TN flux incorporating these influencing factors estimated 35%, 41%, and 24% of riverine TN flux originated from the soil N pool, NANI, and background N sources, respectively. The model forecasted an increase of 45%, 25%, and 6% and a decrease of 13% in riverine TN flux from 2010 to 2030 under continued development, climate change, status-quo, and tackling scenarios, respectively. The lag effect, soil N release, and climate change delay riverine TN export reductions with respect to decreases in NANI and should be considered in developing and evaluating N management measures.

A Decadal Regional and Global Trend Analysis of the Aerosol Optical Depth using a Data-Assimilation Grade Over-Water MODIS and Level 2 MISR Aerosol Products

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

and seasonal sensitivities to clear sky fraction and emissions (e.g., see annual state of the climate summaries in the BAMS, http://www.ncdc.noaa...gov/bams- state - of - the - climate /). Long term changes are as- sumed to be attributable to more background changes of en- ergy use and economic development

Broad-Scale Patterns of Late Jurassic Dinosaur Paleoecology

PubMed Central

Noto, Christopher R.; Grossman, Ari

2010-01-01

Background There have been numerous studies on dinosaur biogeographic distribution patterns. However, these distribution data have not yet been applied to ecological questions. Ecological studies of dinosaurs have tended to focus on reconstructing individual taxa, usually through comparisons to modern analogs. Fewer studies have sought to determine if the ecological structure of fossil assemblages is preserved and, if so, how dinosaur communities varied. Climate is a major component driving differences between communities. If the ecological structure of a fossil locality is preserved, we expect that dinosaur assemblages from similar environments will share a similar ecological structure. Methodology/Principal Findings This study applies Ecological Structure Analysis (ESA) to a dataset of 100+ dinosaur taxa arranged into twelve composite fossil assemblages from around the world. Each assemblage was assigned a climate zone (biome) based on its location. Dinosaur taxa were placed into ecomorphological categories. The proportion of each category creates an ecological profile for the assemblage, which were compared using cluster and principal components analyses. Assemblages grouped according to biome, with most coming from arid or semi-arid/seasonal climates. Differences between assemblages are tied to the proportion of large high-browsing vs. small ground-foraging herbivores, which separates arid from semi-arid and moister environments, respectively. However, the effects of historical, taphonomic, and other environmental factors are still evident. Conclusions/Significance This study is the first to show that the general ecological structure of Late Jurassic dinosaur assemblages is preserved at large scales and can be assessed quantitatively. Despite a broad similarity of climatic conditions, a degree of ecological variation is observed between assemblages, from arid to moist. Taxonomic differences between Asia and the other regions demonstrate at least one case of ecosystem convergence. The proportion of different ecomorphs, which reflects the prevailing climatic and environmental conditions present during fossil deposition, may therefore be used to differentiate Late Jurassic dinosaur fossil assemblages. This method is broadly applicable to different taxa and times, allowing one to address questions of evolutionary, biogeographic, and climatic importance. PMID:20838442

Patient safety culture in Norwegian nursing homes.

PubMed

Bondevik, Gunnar Tschudi; Hofoss, Dag; Husebø, Bettina Sandgathe; Deilkås, Ellen Catharina Tveter

2017-06-20

Patient safety culture concerns leader and staff interaction, attitudes, routines, awareness and practices that impinge on the risk of patient-adverse events. Due to their complex multiple diseases, nursing home patients are at particularly high risk of adverse events. Studies have found an association between patient safety culture and the risk of adverse events. This study aimed to investigate safety attitudes among healthcare providers in Norwegian nursing homes, using the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Ambulatory Version (SAQ-AV). We studied whether variations in safety attitudes were related to professional background, age, work experience and mother tongue. In February 2016, 463 healthcare providers working in five nursing homes in Tønsberg, Norway, were invited to answer the SAQ-AV, translated and adapted to the Norwegian nursing home setting. Previous validation of the Norwegian SAQ-AV for nursing homes identified five patient safety factors: teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, working conditions and stress recognition. SPSS v.22 was used for statistical analysis, which included estimations of mean values, standard deviations and multiple linear regressions. P-values <0.05 were considered to be significant. Out of the 463 employees invited, 288 (62.2%) answered the questionnaire. Response rates varied between 56.9% and 72.2% across the five nursing homes. In multiple linear regression analysis, we found that increasing age and job position among the healthcare providers were associated with significantly increased mean scores for the patient safety factors teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction and working conditions. Not being a Norwegian native speaker was associated with a significantly higher mean score for job satisfaction and a significantly lower mean score for stress recognition. Neither professional background nor work experience were significantly associated with mean scores for any patient safety factor. Patient safety factor scores in nursing homes were poorer than previously found in Norwegian general practices, but similar to findings in out-of-hours primary care clinics. Patient safety culture assessment may help nursing home leaders to initiate targeted quality improvement interventions. Further research should investigate associations between patient safety culture and the occurrence of adverse events in nursing homes.

Intensified impact of tropical Atlantic SST on the western North Pacific summer climate under a weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Lee, June-Yi; Lu, Riyu; Dong, Buwen; Ha, Kyung-Ja

2015-10-01

The tropical North Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST) has been identified as one of regulators on the boreal summer climate over the western North Pacific (WNP), in addition to SSTs in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. The major physical process proposed is that the TNA warming induces a pair of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the eastern Pacific and negative precipitation anomalies over the eastern to central tropical Pacific, which in turn lead to an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the western to central North Pacific. This study further demonstrates that the modulation of the TNA warming to the WNP summer climate anomaly tends to be intensified under background of the weakened Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) by using a water-hosing experiment. The results suggest that the weakened THC induces a decrease in thermocline depth over the TNA region, resulting in the enhanced sensitivity of SST variability to wind anomalies and thus intensification of the interannual variation of TNA SST. Under the weakened THC, the atmospheric responses to the TNA warming are westward shifted, enhancing the anticyclonic circulation and negative precipitation anomaly over the WNP. This study supports the recent finding that the negative phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation after the late 1960s has been favourable for the strengthening of the connection between TNA SST variability and WNP summer climate and has important implications for seasonal prediction and future projection of the WNP summer climate.

Comparing NICU teamwork and safety climate across two commonly used survey instruments

PubMed Central

Profit, Jochen; Lee, Henry C; Sharek, Paul J; Kan, Peggy; Nisbet, Courtney C; Thomas, Eric J; Etchegaray, Jason M; Sexton, Bryan

2016-01-01

Background and objectives Measurement and our understanding of safety culture are still evolving. The objectives of this study were to assess variation in safety and teamwork climate and in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) setting, and compare measurement of safety culture scales using two different instruments (Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) and Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC)). Methods Cross-sectional survey study of a voluntary sample of 2073 (response rate 62.9%) health professionals in 44 NICUs. To compare survey instruments, we used Spearman's rank correlation coefficients. We also compared similar scales and items across the instruments using t tests and changes in quartile-level performance. Results We found significant variation across NICUs in safety and teamwork climate scales of SAQ and HSOPSC (p<0.001). Safety scales (safety climate and overall perception of safety) and teamwork scales (teamwork climate and teamwork within units) of the two instruments correlated strongly (safety r=0.72, p<0.001; teamwork r=0.67, p<0.001). However, the means and per cent agreements for all scale scores and even seemingly similar item scores were significantly different. In addition, comparisons of scale score quartiles between the two instruments revealed that half of the NICUs fell into different quartiles when translating between the instruments. Conclusions Large variation and opportunities for improvement in patient safety culture exist across NICUs. Important systematic differences exist between SAQ and HSOPSC such that these instruments should not be used interchangeably. PMID:26700545

Climate Cycles and Forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a Nonstationary Vector-Borne Disease

PubMed Central

Chaves, Luis Fernando; Pascual, Mercedes

2006-01-01

Background Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is one of the main emergent diseases in the Americas. As in other vector-transmitted diseases, its transmission is sensitive to the physical environment, but no study has addressed the nonstationary nature of such relationships or the interannual patterns of cycling of the disease. Methods and Findings We studied monthly data, spanning from 1991 to 2001, of CL incidence in Costa Rica using several approaches for nonstationary time series analysis in order to ensure robustness in the description of CL's cycles. Interannual cycles of the disease and the association of these cycles to climate variables were described using frequency and time-frequency techniques for time series analysis. We fitted linear models to the data using climatic predictors, and tested forecasting accuracy for several intervals of time. Forecasts were evaluated using “out of fit” data (i.e., data not used to fit the models). We showed that CL has cycles of approximately 3 y that are coherent with those of temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation indices (Sea Surface Temperature 4 and Multivariate ENSO Index). Conclusions Linear models using temperature and MEI can predict satisfactorily CL incidence dynamics up to 12 mo ahead, with an accuracy that varies from 72% to 77% depending on prediction time. They clearly outperform simpler models with no climate predictors, a finding that further supports a dynamical link between the disease and climate. PMID:16903778

The story of rising voices: Facilitating collaboration between indigenous and western ways of knowing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, Julie; Lazrus, Heather; Bennett, Shiloh-Kay; Chief, Karletta; Dhillon, Carla May; Gough, Bob; Kruger, Linda; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Petrovic, Stefan; Whyte, Kyle P.; Companion, Michele; Chaiken, Miriam S.

2016-01-01

Indigenous community self-determination, cultures, and ways of life are at high risk from climate change impacts and ecological dispossession. Partnerships between experts with backgrounds in Indigenous and western knowledge may be productive and effective ways to reduce vulnerability and foster resilience. This chapter examines collaborations among scientific and Native American, Alaska Native, and Pacific Island communities to support climate solutions. We draw examples from the "Rising Voices: Collaborative Science with Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Solutions" program (Rising Voices) to examine how boundary organizations function cross-culturally to increase communities' adaptive capacity through knowledge exchange, as well as building the decision-making capacity needed to exercise sovereignty and make adaptive decisions in a changing climate.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.

PubMed

Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

Impact of Ambient Humidity on Child Health: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Gao, Jinghong; Sun, Yunzong; Lu, Yaogui; Li, Liping

2014-01-01

Background and Objectives Changes in relative humidity, along with other meteorological factors, accompany ongoing climate change and play a significant role in weather-related health outcomes, particularly among children. The purpose of this review is to improve our understanding of the relationship between ambient humidity and child health, and to propose directions for future research. Methods A comprehensive search of electronic databases (PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, OvidSP and EBSCO host) and review of reference lists, to supplement relevant studies, were conducted in March 2013. All identified records were selected based on explicit inclusion criteria. We extracted data from the included studies using a pre-designed data extraction form, and then performed a quality assessment. Various heterogeneities precluded a formal quantitative meta-analysis, therefore, evidence was compiled using descriptive summaries. Results Out of a total of 3797 identified records, 37 papers were selected for inclusion in this review. Among the 37 studies, 35% were focused on allergic diseases and 32% on respiratory system diseases. Quality assessment revealed 78% of the studies had reporting quality scores above 70%, and all findings demonstrated that ambient humidity generally plays an important role in the incidence and prevalence of climate-sensitive diseases among children. Conclusions With climate change, there is a significant impact of ambient humidity on child health, especially for climate-sensitive infectious diseases, diarrhoeal diseases, respiratory system diseases, and pediatric allergic diseases. However, some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of the effects are observed. PMID:25503413

[Evaluation of eco-environmental quality based on artificial neural network and remote sensing techniques].

PubMed

Li, Hongyi; Shi, Zhou; Sha, Jinming; Cheng, Jieliang

2006-08-01

In the present study, vegetation, soil brightness, and moisture indices were extracted from Landsat ETM remote sensing image, heat indices were extracted from MODIS land surface temperature product, and climate index and other auxiliary geographical information were selected as the input of neural network. The remote sensing eco-environmental background value of standard interest region evaluated in situ was selected as the output of neural network, and the back propagation (BP) neural network prediction model containing three layers was designed. The network was trained, and the remote sensing eco-environmental background value of Fuzhou in China was predicted by using software MATLAB. The class mapping of remote sensing eco-environmental background values based on evaluation standard showed that the total classification accuracy was 87. 8%. The method with a scheme of prediction first and classification then could provide acceptable results in accord with the regional eco-environment types.

The CLIMATE schools combined study: a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Methods/design Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Discussion Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge. Trial registration This trial is registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials registry, ACTRN12613000723785. PMID:24499060

Public and Private Hospital Nurses’ Perceptions of the Ethical Climate in Their Work Settings, Sari City, 2011

PubMed Central

Ghorbani, Ali Asghar; Hesamzadeh, Ali; Khademloo, Mohammad; Khalili, Salimeh; Hesamzadeh, Shamim; Berger, Valerie

2014-01-01

Background: Nurses’ perceptions of ethical climate patterns have certain undeniable effects on hospitals. There is little evidence of possible differences in this element between public and private hospitals and contributing factors. Objectives: This study investigated whether the perceptions of the ethical climate in nurses’ working in public hospitals differ from that of nurses in private hospitals, and which factors may affect nurses’ perceptions. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study of randomly selected registered nurses (n = 235), working in four public hospitals affiliated to Mazandaran University of Medical Sciences, and three private hospitals, was conducted in Sari City, Iran. A self-administered questionnaire, containing demographic characteristics and the Hospital Ethical Climate Survey (HECS), were used to assess registered nurses’ perceptions of public and private hospitals ethical climate. An independent t-test and one-way ANOVA were used to analyze the data. Results: Across the five factors of HECS, the highest and lowest mean scores pertained to managers and physicians, respectively, in both public and private hospitals. Nurses who had a conditional employment situation and those working in pediatric intensive care units showed significantly more positive perceptions of the ethical work climate when compared to their peers (P < 0.05). Although the mean score of ethical work climate in private hospitals (3.82 ± 0.61) was higher than that in public hospitals (3.76 ± 0.54), no significant difference was found (P = 0.44). Conclusions: Hospital managers need to discover better ways to promote safety and health programs for their staff according to nurses’ area of work and their type of units. They should also encourage greater levels of participation in safety-enhancing initiatives in the hospital’s ethical climate, especially in the areas of nurses’ perceptions of their physician colleagues, and for nurses with a conditional employment situation. PMID:25414890

Changing flood frequencies under opposing late Pleistocene eastern Mediterranean climates.

PubMed

Ben Dor, Yoav; Armon, Moshe; Ahlborn, Marieke; Morin, Efrat; Erel, Yigal; Brauer, Achim; Schwab, Markus Julius; Tjallingii, Rik; Enzel, Yehouda

2018-05-31

Floods comprise a dominant hydroclimatic phenomenon in aridlands with significant implications for humans, infrastructure, and landscape evolution worldwide. The study of short-term hydroclimatic variability, such as floods, and its forecasting for episodes of changing climate therefore poses a dominant challenge for the scientific community, and predominantly relies on modeling. Testing the capabilities of climate models to properly describe past and forecast future short-term hydroclimatic phenomena such as floods requires verification against suitable geological archives. However, determining flood frequency during changing climate is rarely achieved, because modern and paleoflood records, especially in arid regions, are often too short or discontinuous. Thus, coeval independent climate reconstructions and paleoflood records are required to further understand the impact of climate change on flood generation. Dead Sea lake levels reflect the mean centennial-millennial hydrological budget in the eastern Mediterranean. In contrast, floods in the large watersheds draining directly into the Dead Sea, are linked to short-term synoptic circulation patterns reflecting hydroclimatic variability. These two very different records are combined in this study to resolve flood frequency during opposing mean climates. Two 700-year-long, seasonally-resolved flood time series constructed from late Pleistocene Dead Sea varved sediments, coeval with significant Dead Sea lake level variations are reported. These series demonstrate that episodes of rising lake levels are characterized by higher frequency of floods, shorter intervals between years of multiple floods, and asignificantly larger number of years that experienced multiple floods. In addition, floods cluster into intervals of intense flooding, characterized by 75% and 20% increased frequency above their respective background frequencies during rising and falling lake-levels, respectively. Mean centennial precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean is therefore coupled with drastic changes in flood frequencies. These drastic changes in flood frequencies are linked to changes in the track, depth, and frequency of mid-latitude eastern Mediterranean cyclones, determining mean climatology resulting in wetter and drier regional climatic episodes.

The Effect of Vaccination Coverage and Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia

PubMed Central

Impoinvil, Daniel E.; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J.; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P.

2013-01-01

Background Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Methodology/principal findings Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. Conclusions/significance This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored. PMID:23951373

European Master-Doctorate Course on "Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, R.-A.

2009-04-01

« Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change », European Master-Doctorate Course, Council of Europe, Strasbourg 7-11 September 2009 The character of Cultural Heritage is closely related to the climate, and the urban landscape and the built heritage have been designed with the local climate in mind. The stability of Cultural Heritage is, therefore, closely tied to its interactions with the ground and the atmosphere. Climate Change is thus expected to have either catastrophic or subtle effects on Cultural Heritage materials and Cultural Landscapes. The major aim of the 2009 Strasbourg Course is to ensure that young European students are informed on these important problems and will be able in the future to undertake rigorous ongoing scientific monitoring of changes in conditions of Cultural Heritage. The Programme of the Course will cover the following topics: • Heritage Climatology • Principles of Mitigation and Adaptation of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change on building structures • Dose-Response and Damage Functions for materials in a Changing Climate • Modelling sea salts transport and deposition • Modelling wetting and drying of historic buildings • Impact of Climate Change on building materials: stone, mortar, modern glass, stained glass windows • Impact of Climate Change on organic materials • Biological impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage • Sea level rise models and possible application to Cultural Heritage • Past, present and future for Venice • The policies and action plans of International Organisations (Council of Europe, UNESCO, ICCROM) The Course is addressed to young people with scientific background: physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists, engineers, because of the high scientific level of the background required to follow the lectures. Teaching will be delivered in English without any simultaneous translation. The teachers belong to European Universities, National Research Centres and International Organisations. There are no registration fees. Travel to Strasbourg and accommodation will be taken in charge by the Council of Europe after the selection of applications. Deadline for application: 15 June 2009. Information and application forms: • European University Centre for Cultural Heritage, Villa Rufolo, I-84010-Ravello, Italy, http://www.univeur.org univeur@univeur.org or Council of Europe, EUR-OPA, DG IV, F-67075-Strasbourg Cedex, http://www.coe.int/europarisks europa.risk@coe.int

VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose

2013-04-01

Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of this exercise will directly provide end users with important information about the uncertainty of regional climate scenarios, and will furthermore provide the basis for further developing downscaling methods. This presentation will provide background information on VALUE and discuss the identified characteristics and the validation framework.

Project Ukko - Design of a climate service visualisation interface for seasonal wind forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemment, Drew; Stefaner, Moritz; Makri, Stephann; Buontempo, Carlo; Christel, Isadora; Torralba-Fernandez, Veronica; Gonzalez-Reviriego, Nube; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; de Matos, Paula; Dykes, Jason

2016-04-01

Project Ukko is a prototype climate service to visually communicate probabilistic seasonal wind forecasts for the energy sector. In Project Ukko, an interactive visualisation enhances the accessibility and readability to the latests advances in seasonal wind speed predictions developed as part of the RESILIENCE prototype of the EUPORIAS (EC FP7) project. Climate services provide made-to-measure climate information, tailored to the specific requirements of different users and industries. In the wind energy sector, understanding of wind conditions in the next few months has high economic value, for instance, for the energy traders. Current energy practices use retrospective climatology, but access to reliable seasonal predictions based in the recent advances in global climate models has potential to improve their resilience to climate variability and change. Despite their potential benefits, a barrier to the development of commercially viable services is the complexity of the probabilistic forecast information, and the challenge of communicating complex and uncertain information to decision makers in industry. Project Ukko consists of an interactive climate service interface for wind energy users to explore probabilistic wind speed predictions for the coming season. This interface enables fast visual detection and exploration of interesting features and regions likely to experience unusual changes in wind speed in the coming months.The aim is not only to support users to better understand the future variability in wind power resources, but also to bridge the gap between practitioners' traditional approach and the advanced prediction systems developed by the climate science community. Project Ukko is presented as a case study of cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate science and design, for the development of climate services that are useful, usable and effective for industry users. The presentation will reflect on the challenge of developing a climate service for industry users in the wind energy sector, the background to this challenge, our approach, and the evaluation of the visualisation interface.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

Background element content of the lichen Pseudevernia furfuracea: A supra-national state of art implemented by novel field data from Italy.

PubMed

Cecconi, Elva; Incerti, Guido; Capozzi, Fiore; Adamo, Paola; Bargagli, Roberto; Benesperi, Renato; Candotto Carniel, Fabio; Favero-Longo, Sergio Enrico; Giordano, Simonetta; Puntillo, Domenico; Ravera, Sonia; Spagnuolo, Valeria; Tretiach, Mauro

2018-05-01

In biomonitoring, the knowledge of background element content (BEC) values is an essential pre-requisite for the correct assessment of pollution levels. Here, we estimated the BEC values of a highly performing biomonitor, the epiphytic lichen Pseudevernia furfuracea, by means of a careful review of literature data, integrated by an extensive field survey. Methodologically homogeneous element content datasets, reflecting different exposure conditions across European and extra-European countries, were compiled and comparatively analysed. Element content in samples collected in remote areas was compared to that of potentially enriched samples, testing differences between medians for 25 elements. This analysis confirmed that the former samples were substantially unaffected by anthropogenic contributions, and their metrics were therefore proposed as a first overview at supra-national background level. We also showed that bioaccumulation studies suffer a huge methodological variability. Limited to original field data, we investigated the background variability of 43 elements in 62 remote Italian sites, characterized in GIS environment for anthropization, land use, climate and lithology at different scale resolution. The relationships between selected environmental descriptors and BEC were tested using Principal Component Regression (PCR) modelling. Elemental composition resulted significantly dependent on land use, climate and lithology. In the case of lithogenic elements, regression models correctly reproduced the lichen content throughout the country at randomly selected sites. Further descriptors should be identified only for As, Co, and V. Through a multivariate approach we also identified three geographically homogeneous macro-regions for which specific BECs were provided for use as reference in biomonitoring applications. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic Background and Climatic Droplet Keratopathy Incidence in a Mapuche Population from Argentina

PubMed Central

Schurr, Theodore G.; Dulik, Matthew C.; Cafaro, Thamara A.; Suarez, María F.

2013-01-01

Purpose To determine whether the incidence of and susceptibility to climatic droplet keratopathy (CDK), an acquired, often bilateral degenerative corneal disease, is influenced by the genetic background of the individuals who exhibit the disorder. Methods To determine whether the disease expression was influenced by the genetic ancestry of CDK cases in native Mapuche of the northwest area of Patagonia in Argentina, we examined mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome variation in 53 unrelated individuals. Twenty-nine of them were part of the CDK (patient) population, while 24 were part of the control group. The analysis revealed the maternal and paternal lineages that were present in the two study groups. Results This analysis demonstrated that nearly all persons had a Native American mtDNA background, whereas 50% of the CDK group and 37% of the control group had Native American paternal ancestry, respectively. There was no significant difference in the frequencies of mtDNA haplogroups between the CDK patient and control groups. Although the Y-chromosome data revealed differences in specific haplogroup frequencies between these two groups, there was no statistically significant relationship between individual paternal genetic backgrounds and the incidence or stage of disease. Conclusions These results indicate a lack of correlation between genetic ancestry as represented by haploid genetic systems and the incidence of CDK in Mapuche populations. In addition, the mtDNA appears to play less of a role in CDK expression than for other complex diseases linked to bioenergetic processes. However, further analysis of the mtDNA genome sequence and other genes involved in corneal function may reveal the more precise role that mitochondria play in the expression of CDK. PMID:24040292

Genetic background and climatic droplet keratopathy incidence in a Mapuche population from Argentina.

PubMed

Schurr, Theodore G; Dulik, Matthew C; Cafaro, Thamara A; Suarez, María F; Urrets-Zavalia, Julio A; Serra, Horacio M

2013-01-01

To determine whether the incidence of and susceptibility to climatic droplet keratopathy (CDK), an acquired, often bilateral degenerative corneal disease, is influenced by the genetic background of the individuals who exhibit the disorder. To determine whether the disease expression was influenced by the genetic ancestry of CDK cases in native Mapuche of the northwest area of Patagonia in Argentina, we examined mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome variation in 53 unrelated individuals. Twenty-nine of them were part of the CDK (patient) population, while 24 were part of the control group. The analysis revealed the maternal and paternal lineages that were present in the two study groups. This analysis demonstrated that nearly all persons had a Native American mtDNA background, whereas 50% of the CDK group and 37% of the control group had Native American paternal ancestry, respectively. There was no significant difference in the frequencies of mtDNA haplogroups between the CDK patient and control groups. Although the Y-chromosome data revealed differences in specific haplogroup frequencies between these two groups, there was no statistically significant relationship between individual paternal genetic backgrounds and the incidence or stage of disease. These results indicate a lack of correlation between genetic ancestry as represented by haploid genetic systems and the incidence of CDK in Mapuche populations. In addition, the mtDNA appears to play less of a role in CDK expression than for other complex diseases linked to bioenergetic processes. However, further analysis of the mtDNA genome sequence and other genes involved in corneal function may reveal the more precise role that mitochondria play in the expression of CDK.

Investigating the Connections between Oil and Gas Industry Affiliation and Climate Change Concerns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrader, S. M.; Bunnell, D.; Danielson, C.; Borglum, S.

2012-12-01

In addition to the research on scientific aspects of climate change, significant work has also been done on the perception of climate change among various sectors of the population. This is an important area of research as in many cases the science policy of a country is a function of the popular sentiment. One area of interest is the relationship between education, specifically in related areas such as earth sciences and engineering, to one's views on climate change. While research has shown that there is a correlation between higher education and an acceptance of human caused climate change, this work looks into the question more specifically. The question asked here is: given a group of people with education and experience in the earth sciences, does the area of employment affect how they view the issue? In other words, does an engineer or geoscientist working in the oil and gas industry look at the data relating to climate change in the same way an equivalently educated engineer or geoscientist working in another field does? An understanding of whether or not employment in the oil and gas industry has a similar effect on views of climate change as political or religious ideologies may help in fostering communication between disciplines and working together for solutions. In order to look at this question, a survey is being conducted of members in the petroleum engineering community. The survey is designed along the lines of similar surveys to measure the respondents understanding of, concern with, and beliefs about climate change. It also includes other correlating factors such as political and religious views. A second group of engineers in fields that typically place them outside of the oil and gas industry are being surveyed as a control group. The results will determine whether individuals with similar educational backgrounds look at the data connected with climate change differently based on the field in which they work, and if so, are there other confounding issues related to political and religious background and ideology.

Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2017-12-01

Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, < 0.25% of the total Noachian. What climate models can account for the VNS? 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming and melting events for the VNs origin is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Stress, burnout and doctors' attitudes to work are determined by personality and learning style: A twelve year longitudinal study of UK medical graduates

PubMed Central

McManus, IC; Keeling, A; Paice, E

2004-01-01

Background The study investigated the extent to which approaches to work, workplace climate, stress, burnout and satisfaction with medicine as a career in doctors aged about thirty are predicted by measures of learning style and personality measured five to twelve years earlier when the doctors were applicants to medical school or were medical students. Methods Prospective study of a large cohort of doctors. The participants were first studied when they applied to any of five UK medical schools in 1990. Postal questionnaires were sent to all doctors with a traceable address on the current or a previous Medical Register. The current questionnaire included measures of Approaches to Work, Workplace Climate, stress (General Health Questionnaire), burnout (Maslach Burnout Inventory), and satisfaction with medicine as a career and personality (Big Five). Previous questionnaires had included measures of learning style (Study Process Questionnaire) and personality. Results Doctors' approaches to work were predicted by study habits and learning styles, both at application to medical school and in the final year. How doctors perceive their workplace climate and workload is predicted both by approaches to work and by measures of stress, burnout and satisfaction with medicine. These characteristics are partially predicted by trait measures of personality taken five years earlier. Stress, burnout and satisfaction also correlate with trait measures of personality taken five years earlier. Conclusions Differences in approach to work and perceived workplace climate seem mainly to reflect stable, long-term individual differences in doctors themselves, reflected in measures of personality and learning style. PMID:15317650

Climate Change Sentiment on Twitter: An Unsolicited Public Opinion Poll

PubMed Central

Cody, Emily M.; Reagan, Andrew J.; Mitchell, Lewis; Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Danforth, Christopher M.

2015-01-01

The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word “climate” collected between September 2008 and July 2014. Through use of a previously developed sentiment measurement tool called the Hedonometer, we determine how collective sentiment varies in response to climate change news, events, and natural disasters. We find that natural disasters, climate bills, and oil-drilling can contribute to a decrease in happiness while climate rallies, a book release, and a green ideas contest can contribute to an increase in happiness. Words uncovered by our analysis suggest that responses to climate change news are predominately from climate change activists rather than climate change deniers, indicating that Twitter is a valuable resource for the spread of climate change awareness. PMID:26291877

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Heavy Metals in Surface Soils in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River, Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Bu, Jianwei; Sun, Ziyong; Zhou, Aiguo; Xu, Youning; Ma, Rui; Wei, Wenhao; Liu, Meng

2016-01-01

The upper reaches of the Heihe River have been regarded as a hotspot for phytoecology, climate change, water resources and hydrology studies. Due to the cold-arid climate, high elevation, remote location and poor traffic conditions, few studies focused on heavy metal contamination of soils have been conducted or reported in this region. In the present study, an investigation was performed to provide information regarding the concentration levels, sources, spatial distributions, and environmental risks of heavy metals in this area for the first time. Fifty-six surface soil samples collected from the study area were analyzed for Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb concentrations, as well as TOC levels. Basic statistics, concentration comparisons, correlation coefficient analysis and multivariate analyses coupled with spatial distributions were utilized to delineate the features and the sources of different heavy metals. Risk assessments, including geoaccumulation index, enrichment factor and potential ecological risk index, were also performed. The results indicate that the concentrations of heavy metals have been increasing since the 1990s. The mean values of each metal are all above the average background values in the Qinghai Province, Tibet, China and the world, except for that of Cr. Of special note is the concentration of Cd, which is extremely elevated compared with all background values. The distinguished ore-forming conditions and well-preserved, widely distributed limestones likely contribute to the high Cd concentration. Heavy metals in surface soils in the study area are primarily inherited from parent materials. Nonetheless, anthropogenic activities may have accelerated the process of weathering. Cd presents a high background concentration level and poses a severe environmental risk throughout the whole region. Soils in Yinda, Reshui daban, Kekeli and Zamasheng in particular pose threats to the health of the local population, as well as that of livestock and wildlife. PMID:26907322

Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.

PubMed

Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune; Born, Erik W; Riget, Frank F; Leifsson, Pall S; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Kirkegaard, Maja

2007-11-15

Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p < 0.05). Based on previously published baculum mean values from Canadian polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.

Institutional Governance Framework for Determining Carbon-related Accounting Practices: An Exploratory Study of Electricity Generating Companies in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alrazi, B.; Mat Husin, N.

2016-03-01

Electricity industry is the major contributor of the global carbon emissions which has been scientifically identified as the main cause of climate change. With the various initiatives being implemented at the international, national, and industry levels, companies in the electricity industry are currently facing immense pressure from various stakeholders to demonstrate their policies, initiatives, targets, and performance on climate change. Against this background, accounting system is argued to be able to be play important roles in combating climate change. Using institutional governance as the underlying framework, we have identified several governance mechanisms as the determining factors for companies to have a systematic accounting system related to carbon emissions. The factors include environmental management system certification, environmental organization, publication of stand-alone sustainability reports, the use of GRI guidelines, environmental strategic planning, governance quality, and participation in CDP surveys and emissions trading scheme. We explored this issue in the context of major electricity generating companies in Malaysia and found that except for certified environmental management system, the other governance mechanisms are still lacking. The findings suggest that companies in Malaysia, in particular, from the electricity industry are not well prepared in facing risks related to climate change.

Navy Ship Propulsion Technologies: Options for Reducing Oil Use - Background for Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-26

at [http://www50.dt.navy.mil/reports/hydrobulb/]. 10 U.S. Department of Defense, Climate Change, Energy Efficiency, and Ozone Protection, Protecting...Vessels, Reducing Shipboard Fuel Consumption and Emissions,” op cit, and Climate Change, Energy Efficiency, and Ozone Protection, Protecting National...retrofitted with the SkySails technology trouble-free.67 CRS-26 68 “The Economic and Sustainable Utilisation in the Cargo Shipping Industry of Wind

The SRBs for the Delta II rocket carrying the Mars Polar Lander arrive on Pad 17B, CCAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

On Pad 17B, Cape Canaveral Air Station, a solid rocket booster waits for mating with the Delta II rocket (in background) carrying the Mars Polar Lander. The rocket will be used to launch the Mars Polar Lander on Jan. 3, 1999. The lander is a solar- powered spacecraft designed to touch down on the Martian surface near the northern-most boundary of the south pole in order to study the water cycle there. The lander also will help scientists learn more about climate change and current resources on Mars, studying such things as frost, dust, water vapor and condensates in the Martian atmosphere. It is the second spacecraft to be launched in a pair of Mars '98 missions. The first is the Mars Climate Orbiter, to be launched aboard a Delta II rocket from Launch Complex 17A in December 1998.

The use of climate information to estimate future mortality from high ambient temperature: A systematic literature review

PubMed Central

Arbuthnott, Katherine; Kovats, Sari; Hajat, Shakoor; Falloon, Pete

2017-01-01

Background and objectives Heat related mortality is of great concern for public health, and estimates of future mortality under a warming climate are important for planning of resources and possible adaptation measures. Papers providing projections of future heat-related mortality were critically reviewed with a focus on the use of climate model data. Some best practice guidelines are proposed for future research. Methods The electronic databases Web of Science and PubMed/Medline were searched for papers containing a quantitative estimate of future heat-related mortality. The search was limited to papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals up to the end of March 2017. Reference lists of relevant papers and the citing literature were also examined. The wide range of locations studied and climate data used prevented a meta-analysis. Results A total of 608 articles were identified after removal of duplicate entries, of which 63 were found to contain a quantitative estimate of future mortality from hot days or heat waves. A wide range of mortality models and climate model data have been used to estimate future mortality. Temperatures in the climate simulations used in these studies were projected to increase. Consequently, all the papers indicated that mortality from high temperatures would increase under a warming climate. The spread in projections of future climate by models adds substantial uncertainty to estimates of future heat-related mortality. However, many studies either did not consider this source of uncertainty, or only used results from a small number of climate models. Other studies showed that uncertainty from changes in populations and demographics, and the methods for adaptation to warmer temperatures were at least as important as climate model uncertainty. Some inconsistencies in the use of climate data (for example, using global mean temperature changes instead of changes for specific locations) and interpretation of the effects on mortality were apparent. Some factors which have not been considered when estimating future mortality are summarised. Conclusions Most studies have used climate data generated using scenarios with medium and high emissions of greenhouse gases. More estimates of future mortality using climate information from the mitigation scenario RCP2.6 are needed, as this scenario is the only one under which the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C or less could be realised. Many of the methods used to combine modelled data with local climate observations are simplistic. Quantile-based methods might offer an improved approach, especially for temperatures at the ends of the distributions. The modelling of adaptation to warmer temperatures in mortality models is generally arbitrary and simplistic, and more research is needed to better quantify adaptation. Only a small number of studies included possible changes in population and demographics in their estimates of future mortality, meaning many estimates of mortality could be biased low. Uncertainty originating from establishing a mortality baseline, climate projections, adaptation and population changes is important and should be considered when estimating future mortality. PMID:28686743

Effects of Convective Transport on the Budget of Amazonian Aerosol under Background Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Krejci, R.; Giangrande, S. E.; Kuang, C.; Barbosa, H. M.; Brito, J.; Carbone, S.; Chi, X.; Comstock, J. M.; Ditas, F.; Lavric, J. V.; Manninen, H. E.; Mei, F.; Moran, D.; Pöhlker, C.; Pöhlker, M. L.; Saturno, J.; Schmid, B.; Souza, R. A. F. D.; Springston, S. R.; Tomlinson, J. M.; Toto, T.; Walter, D.; Wimmer, D.; Smith, J. N.; Machado, L.; Artaxo, P.; Andreae, M. O.; Martin, S. T.

2016-12-01

Aerosol particles can strongly influence the radiative properties of clouds, and they represent one of the largest uncertainties in computer simulations of climate change. The large uncertainty is in large part due to a poor understanding of processes under natural conditions, which serves as the baseline to measure change against. Understanding the processes under natural conditions is critical for a reliable assessment and quantification of ongoing and future climate change. The Amazon rainforest is one of the few continental regions where aerosol particles and their precursors can be studied under near-natural conditions. Here we examine the aerosol number and CCN budget under background conditions in the Amazon basin using data collected during the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon 2014/5) campaign, which took place from January 2014 to December 2015 near Manaus, Brazil. The aerosol size spectrum was observed at the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO), 150 km upwind of Manaus, and its variation with convection and precipitation during the wet season is presented. Air masses arriving at the ATTO during the wet season are typically brought by the northeasterly trade winds and travel across at least 1000 km of undeveloped tropical rainforest, therefore are generally clean. Also shown are vertical profiles of aerosol observed onboard the DOE Gulfstream-1 research aircraft. The impact of convective transport on the budget of boundary layer aerosol and CCN under the background conditions is discussed.

Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-04-01

Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value < 0.01 according to an F-test) over the European suburban and urban stations during 1995-2012 based on the Airbase sites. For European background ozone observed at EMEP sites, it is shown that a significantly decreasing trend in the 95th percentile ozone concentrations has occurred, especially at noon (0.9 µg m-3 yr-1; P-value < 0.01), while the 5th percentile ozone concentrations continued to increase with a trend of 0.3 µg m-3 yr-1 (P-value < 0.01) during the study period. With the help of numerical simulations performed with the global chemistry-climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

KSC-98pc1081

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-09-14

In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility-2 (SAEF-2), the Mars Climate Orbiter (background) is moved toward the workstand being readied by technicians (foreground). The Mars Climate Orbiter is heading for Mars where it will primarily support its companion Mars Polar Lander spacecraft, planned for launch on Jan. 3, 1999. After that, the Mars Climate Orbiter's instruments will monitor the Martian atmosphere and image the planet's surface on a daily basis for one Martian year (two Earth years). It will observe the appearance and movement of atmospheric dust and water vapor, as well as characterize seasonal changes on the surface. The detailed images of the surface features will provide important clues to the planet's early climate history and give scientists more information about possible liquid water reserves beneath the surface. The scheduled launch date for the Mars Climate Orbiter is Dec. 10, 1998, on a Boeing Delta II 7425 rocket

Experience real-time climate change: Environmental education at Jamtal glacier.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andrea; Seiser, Bernd; Hartl, Lea; Bendler, Gebhard

2016-04-01

Kids hear about climate change in everyday news, but, unlike grown-ups, they find it much harder to imagine changes over decades, i.e. much longer than their own life span. So how to teach them the issues of climate change? Jamtalferner is an Alpine glacier with an ongoing mass balance monitoring programme started in 1988/89. Surveys of glacier length changes by the Austrian Alpine Club date back even longer, so that the glacier retreat after the Little Ice Age is well documented. As the glacier is easy to access, at just one hour's easy walk from the mountain hut, Jamtalferner was selected to compile materials on climate change for the use in schools and for preparing excursions for a hands-on confrontation with climate change and to give an impression of decadal changes. The materials will be available at www.umweltbildung-jamtal.info and include time series of photographs, maps, tables, background information and exercises.

Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma

PubMed Central

Sheffield, Perry E.; Knowlton, Kim; Carr, Jessie L.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2011-01-01

Background The adverse respiratory effects of ground-level ozone are well-established. Ozone is the air pollutant most consistently projected to increase under future climate change. Purpose To project future pediatric asthma emergency department visits associated with ground-level ozone changes, comparing 1990s to 2020s. Methods This study assessed future numbers of asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years using (1) baseline New York City metropolitan area emergency department rates, (2) a dose–response relationship between ozone levels and pediatric asthma emergency department visits, and (3) projected daily 8-hour maximum ozone concentrations for the 2020s as simulated by a global-to-regional climate change and atmospheric chemistry model. Sensitivity analyses included population projections and ozone precursor changes. This analysis occurred in 2010. Results In this model, climate change could cause an increase in regional summer ozone-related asthma emergency department visits for children aged 0–17 years of 7.3% across the New York City metropolitan region by the 2020s. This effect diminished with inclusion of ozone precursor changes. When population growth is included, the projections of morbidity related to ozone are even larger. Conclusions The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of regional climate and atmospheric chemistry models make possible the projection of local climate change health effects for specific age groups and specific disease outcomes – such as emergency department visits for asthma. Efforts should be made to improve on this type of modeling to inform local and wider-scale climate change mitigation and adaptation policy. PMID:21855738

Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in India: Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Bush, Kathleen F.; Luber, George; Kotha, S. Rani; Dhaliwal, R.S.; Kapil, Vikas; Pascual, Mercedes; Brown, Daniel G.; Frumkin, Howard; Dhiman, R.C.; Hess, Jeremy; Wilson, Mark L.; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Eisenberg, Joseph; Kaur, Tanvir; Rood, Richard; Batterman, Stuart; Joseph, Aley; Gronlund, Carina J.; Agrawal, Arun; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

Background Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions. Objectives Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified priorities and strategies for future research in India. Discussion The scope of the problem in India is enormous, based on the potential for climate change and variability to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya, as well as chronic diseases, particularly among the millions of people who already experience poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water. Ongoing efforts to study these risks were discussed but remain scant. A universal theme of the recommendations developed was the importance of improving the surveillance, monitoring, and integration of meteorological, environmental, geospatial, and health data while working in parallel to implement adaptation strategies. Conclusions It will be critical for India to invest in improvements in information infrastructure that are innovative and that promote interdisciplinary collaborations while embarking on adaptation strategies. This will require unprecedented levels of collaboration across diverse institutions in India and abroad. The data can be used in research on the likely impacts of climate change on health that reflect India’s diverse climates and populations. Local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior must also be enhanced. PMID:21273162

Niche conservatism and phylogenetic clustering in a tribe of arid-adapted marsupial mice, the Sminthopsini.

PubMed

García-Navas, Vicente; Westerman, Michael

2018-05-28

The progressive expansion of the Australian arid zone during the last 20 Ma appears to have spurred the diversification of several families of plants, vertebrates and invertebrates, yet such taxonomic groups appear to show limited niche radiation. Here, we test whether speciation is associated with niche conservatism (constraints on ecological divergence) or niche divergence in a tribe of marsupial mice (Sminthopsini; 23 taxa) that includes the most speciose genus of living dasyurids, the sminthopsins. To that end, we integrated phylogenetic data with ecological niche modelling, to enable us to reconstruct the evolution of climatic suitability within Sminthopsini. Niche overlap among species was low-moderate (but generally higher than expected given environmental background similarity), and the degree of phylogenetic clustering increased with aridity. Climatic niche reconstruction illustrates that there has been little apparent evolution of climatic tolerance within clades. Accordingly, climatic disparity tends to be accumulated among clades, suggesting considerable niche conservatism. Our results also indicate that evolution of climatic tolerances has been heterogeneous across different dimensions of climate (temperature vs. precipitation) and across phylogenetic clusters (Sminthopsis murina group vs. other groups). Although some results point to the existence of shifts in climatic niches during the speciation of sminthopsins, our study provides evidence for substantial phylogenetic niche conservatism in the group. We conclude that niche diversification had a low impact on the speciation of this tribe of small, but highly mobile marsupials. © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2018 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Paleoclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, Patrick J.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.; Ohring, G.

2014-01-01

As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago or 21 ka) and the present, which were as large in amplitude as any experienced over a similar time span during the past several million years. As background to that discussion, the climatic variations over the Cenozoic (the past 65.5 Myr, or 65.5 Ma to present) that led ultimately to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.59 Ma will also be discussed. Superimposed on the large-amplitude, broad-scale variations from the LGM to present, are climatic variations on millennial-to-decadal scales, and these will be reviewed in particular for the Holocene (11.7 ka to present) and the past millennium.

Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society.

PubMed

de Boer, Joop; de Witt, Annick; Aiking, Harry

2016-03-01

This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background factors, including possible spillover effects. Consumer samples in the Netherlands (n = 527) and the United States (n = 556) were asked to evaluate food-related and energy-related mitigation options in a design that included three food-related options with very different mitigation potentials (i.e. eating less meat, buying local and seasonal food, and buying organic food). They rated each option's effectiveness and their willingness to adopt it. The outstanding effectiveness of the less meat option (as established by climate experts) was recognized by merely 12% of the Dutch and 6% of the American sample. Many more participants gave fairly positive effectiveness ratings and this was correlated with belief in human causation of climate change, personal importance of climate change, and being a moderate meat eater. Willingness to adopt the less meat option increased with its perceived effectiveness and, controlling for that, it was significantly related to various motivationally relevant factors. The local food option appealed to consumer segments with overlapping but partly different motivational orientations. It was concluded that a transition to a low carbon society can significantly benefit from a special focus on the food-related options to involve more consumers and to improve mitigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-suicidal self-injury within the school context: Multilevel analysis of teachers' support and peer climate.

PubMed

Madjar, N; Ben Shabat, S; Elia, R; Fellner, N; Rehavi, M; Rubin, S E; Segal, N; Shoval, G

2017-03-01

Recent studies regarding non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) among adolescents have focused primarily on individual characteristics (e.g., depressive symptoms) and background factors (e.g., parental relationship), whereas less emphasis has been given to the role of school-related factors in NSSI. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to explore the relationships between teachers' support, peer climate, and NSSI within the school context. The sample consisted of 594 high school students nested within 27 regular classes (54.4% boys; mean age 14.96, SD=1.33 years). The students were evaluated for NSSI behaviors, perception of teacher support, peer climate, relationships with mothers, and depressive symptoms using validated scales. The primary analysis used hierarchical linear modeling (HLM), controlling for gender and age. The main findings indicated that teacher support was positively associated with NSSI at the classroom-level (OR=6.15, 95% CI=2.05-18.5) but negatively associated at the student-level (OR=0.66, 95% CI=0.49-0.89). There was a trend toward an association between positive peer climate and NSSI at the classroom-level (OR=0.43, 95% CI=0.18-1.05), while negative peer climate was associated with NSSI at the student-level (OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.00-1.87). School-related factors are associated with NSSI behaviors among students. Teachers and educators should focus on both individual-level and classroom-level perceptions of school context. Students who feel supported by their teachers and who are exposed to a positive peer climate are less likely to engage in NSSI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climate impacts on environmental risks evaluated from space: a conceptual approach to the case of Rift Valley Fever in Senegal

PubMed Central

Tourre, Yves M.; Lacaux, Jean-Pierre; Vignolles, Cécile; Lafaye, Murielle

2009-01-01

Background Climate and environment vary across many spatio-temporal scales, including the concept of climate change, which impact on ecosystems, vector-borne diseases and public health worldwide. Objectives To develop a conceptual approach by mapping climatic and environmental conditions from space and studying their linkages with Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal. Design Ponds in which mosquitoes could thrive were identified from remote sensing using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Additional data on pond dynamics and rainfall events (obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were combined with hydrological in-situ data. Localisation of vulnerable hosts such as penned cattle (from QuickBird satellite) were also used. Results Dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes vexans density (one of the main RVF vectors) is based on the total rainfall amount and ponds’ dynamics. While Zones Potentially Occupied by Mosquitoes are mapped, detailed risk areas, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability occur, are expressed in percentages of areas where cattle are potentially exposed to mosquitoes’ bites. Conclusions This new conceptual approach, using precise remote-sensing techniques, simply relies upon rainfall distribution also evaluated from space. It is meant to contribute to the implementation of operational early warning systems for RVF based on both natural and anthropogenic climatic and environmental changes. In a climate change context, this approach could also be applied to other vector-borne diseases and places worldwide. PMID:20052381

[Effects of future climate change on climatic suitability of rubber plantation in China].

PubMed

Liu, Shao-jun; Zhou, Guang-sheng; Fang, Shi-bo; Zhang, Jing-hong

2015-07-01

Global warming may seriously affect the climatic suitability distribution of rubber plantation in China. Five main climate factors affecting rubber planting were mean temperature of the coldest month, mean extremely minimum temperature, the number of monthly, mean temperature ≥18 °C, annual mean temperature and annual mean precipitation. Climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 1981-2010, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 were analyzed by the maximum entropy model based on the five main climate factors and the climate data of 1981-2010 and RCP4.5 scenario data. The results showed that under the background of the future climate change, the climatic suitability area of rubber plantation would have a trend of expansion to the north in 2041-2060, 2061-2080. The climatic suitability areas of rubber plantation in 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 increased more obviously than in 1981-2010. The suitable area and optimum area would increase, while the less suitable area would decrease. The climatic suitability might change in some areas, such as the total suitable area would decrease in Yunnan Province, and the suitability grade in both Jinghong and Mengna would change from optimum area to suitable area. However, the optimum area of rubber plantation would increase significantly in Hainan Island and Leizhou Peninsula of Guangdong Province, and a new less suitable area of rubber planting would appear in Taiwan Island due to the climate change.

Events at the turn of the Eocene and Oligocene in the Central Eurasia Region (middle latitudes)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhmetiev, M. A.; Gavrilov, Yu. O.; Zaporozhets, N. I.

2017-03-01

The Eocene and Oligocene transition sections (Priabonian-Rupelian) of the Aral-Turgai, West Siberian, Volga-Don, and Crimea-Caucasus regions have been studied in detail [1], and the global biospheric crisis events have been estimated at the turn of the Eocene and Oligocene. In spite of the idea of the gradual regression in the Priabonian with drainage of the inner sea basins, it has been established that shallowing of the sea was preceded by repeated transgression that continued for 1 Ma with warming up and humidification of the climate. The final regressive phase (130-200 ka) was accompanied by frequent eustatic and climatic fluctuations, reconstruction of the isotopic and geochemical background, and also the recurrence at the boundary between layers in certain continuous sections.

Responses of ocean circulation and carbon cycle to changes in the position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Völker, Christoph; Köhler, Peter

2013-01-01

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric pCO2 of less than 10 μatm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO2outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data. PMID:26074663

Responses of ocean circulation and carbon cycle to changes in the position of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies at Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Völker, Christoph; Köhler, Peter

2013-12-01

We explore the impact of a latitudinal shift in the westerly wind belt over the Southern Ocean on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and on the carbon cycle for Last Glacial Maximum background conditions using a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model. We find that a southward (northward) shift in the westerly winds leads to an intensification (weakening) of no more than 10% of the AMOC. This response of the ocean physics to shifting winds agrees with other studies starting from preindustrial background climate, but the responsible processes are different. In our setup changes in AMOC seemed to be more pulled by upwelling in the south than pushed by downwelling in the north, opposite to what previous studies with different background climate are suggesting. The net effects of the changes in ocean circulation lead to a rise in atmospheric p CO 2 of less than 10 μatm for both northward and southward shift in the winds. For northward shifted winds the zone of upwelling of carbon- and nutrient-rich waters in the Southern Ocean is expanded, leading to more CO 2 outgassing to the atmosphere but also to an enhanced biological pump in the subpolar region. For southward shifted winds the upwelling region contracts around Antarctica, leading to less nutrient export northward and thus a weakening of the biological pump. These model results do not support the idea that shifts in the westerly wind belt play a dominant role in coupling atmospheric CO 2 rise and Antarctic temperature during deglaciation suggested by the ice core data.

Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee

2015-01-01

Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term. PMID:25881302

Response of evapotranspiration to changes in land use and land cover and climate in China during 2001-2013.

PubMed

Li, Gen; Zhang, Fangmin; Jing, Yuanshu; Liu, Yibo; Sun, Ge

2017-10-15

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is a central component of the Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. Understanding ET is important in quantifying the impacts of human influences on the hydrological cycle and thus helps improving water use efficiency and strengthening water use planning and watershed management. China has experienced tremendous land use and land cover changes (LUCC) as a result of urbanization and ecological restoration under a broad background of climate change. This study used MODIS data products to analyze how LUCC and climate change affected ET in China in the period 2001-2013. We examined the separate contribution to the estimated ET changes by combining LUCC and climate data. Results showed that the average annual ET in China decreased at a rate of -0.6mm/yr from 2001 to 2013. Areas in which ET decreased significantly were mainly distributed in the northwest China, the central of southwest China, and most regions of south central and east China. The trends of four climatic factors including air temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity were determined, while the contributions of these four factors to ET were quantified by combining the ET and climate datasets. Among the four climatic factors, sunshine duration and wind speed had the greatest influence on ET. LUCC data from 2001 to 2013 showed that forests, grasslands and croplands in China mutually replaced each other. The reduction of forests had much greater effects on ET than change by other land cover types. Finally, through quantitative separation of the distinct effects of climate change and LUCC on ET, we conclude that climate change was the more significant than LULC change in influencing ET in China during the period 2001-2013. Effective water resource management and vegetation-based ecological restoration efforts in China must consider the effects of climate change on ET and water availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Urban impacts on regional carbonaceous aerosols: case study in central Texas.

PubMed

Barrett, Tate E; Sheesley, Rebecca J

2014-08-01

Rural and background sites provide valuable information on the concentration and optical properties of organic, elemental, and water-soluble organic carbon (OC, EC, and WSOC), which are relevant for understanding the climate forcing potential of regional atmospheric aerosols. To quantify climate- and air quality-relevant characteristics of carbonaceous aerosol in the central United States, a regional background site in central Texas was chosen for long-term measurement. Back trajectory (BT) analysis, ambient OC, EC, and WSOC concentrations and absorption parameters are reported for the first 15 months of a long-term campaign (May 2011-August 2012). BT analysis indicates consistent north-south airflow connecting central Texas to the Central Plains. Central Texas aerosols exhibited seasonal trends with increased fine particulate matter (< 2.5 microm aerodynamic diameter, PM2.5) and OC during the summer (PM2.5 = 10.9 microg m(-3) and OC = 3.0 microg m(-3)) and elevated EC during the winter (0.22 microg m(-3)). When compared to measurements in Dallas and Houston, TX, central Texas OC appears to have mixed urban and rural sources. However central Texas EC appears to be dominated by transport of urban emissions. WSOC averaged 63% of the annual OC, with little seasonal variability in this ratio. To monitor brown carbon (BrC), absorption was measured for the aqueous WSOC extracts. Light absorption coefficients for EC and BrC were highest during summer (EC MAC = 11 m2 g(-1) and BRC MAE365 = 0.15 m2 g(-1)). Results from optical analysis indicate that regional aerosol absorption is mostly due to EC with summertime peaks in BrC attenuation. This study represents the first reported values of WSOC absorption, MAE365, for the central United States. Implications: Background concentration and absorption measurements are essential in determining regional potential radiative forcing due to atmospheric aerosols. Back trajectory, chemical, and optical analysis of PM2.5 was used to determine climatic and air quality implications of urban outflow to a regional receptor site, representative of the central United States. Results indicate that central Texas organic carbon has mixed urban and rural sources, while elemental carbon is controlled by the transport of urban emissions. Analysis of aerosol absorption showed black carbon as the dominant absorber, with less brown carbon absorption than regional studies in California and the southeastern United States.

Situational awareness, relational coordination and integrated care delivery to hospitalized elderly in The Netherlands: a comparison between hospitals

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background It is known that interprofessional collaboration is crucial for integrated care delivery, yet we are still unclear about the underlying mechanisms explaining effectiveness of integrated care delivery to older patients. In addition, we lack research comparing integrated care delivery between hospitals. Therefore, this study aims to (i) provide insight into the underlying components ‘relational coordination’ and ‘situational awareness’ of integrated care delivery and the role of team and organizational context in integrated care delivery; and (ii) compare situational awareness, relational coordination, and integrated care delivery of different hospitals in the Netherlands. Methods This cross-sectional study took place in 2012 among professionals from three different hospitals involved in the delivery of care to older patients. A total of 215 professionals filled in the questionnaire (42% response rate).Descriptive statistics and paired-sample t-tests were used to investigate the level of situational awareness, relational coordination, and integrated care delivery in the three different hospitals. Correlation and multilevel analyses were used to investigate the relationship between background characteristics, team context, organizational context, situational awareness, relational coordination and integrated care delivery. Results No differences in background characteristics, team context, organizational context, situational awareness, relational coordination and integrated care delivery were found among the three hospitals. Correlational analysis revealed that situational awareness (r = 0.30; p < 0.01), relational coordination (r = 0.17; p < 0.05), team climate (r = 0.29; p < 0.01), formal internal communication (r = 0.46; p < 0.01), and informal internal communication (r = 0.36; p < 0.01) were positively associated with integrated care delivery. Stepwise multilevel analyses showed that formal internal communication (p < 0.001) and situational awareness (p < 0.01) were associated with integrated care delivery. Team climate was not significantly associated with integrated care delivery when situational awareness and relational coordination were included in the equation. Thus situational awareness acted as mediator between team climate and integrated care delivery among professionals delivering care to older hospitalized patients. Conclusions The results of this study show the importance of formal internal communication and situational awareness for quality of care delivery to hospitalized older patients. PMID:24410889

Air Pollutants, Climate, and the Prevalence of Pediatric Asthma in Urban Areas of China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Juanjuan; Yan, Li; Fu, Wenlong; Yi, Jing; Chen, Yuzhi; Liu, Chuanhe; Xu, Dongqun; Wang, Qiang

2016-01-01

Background. Prevalence of childhood asthma varies significantly among regions, while its reasons are not clear yet with only a few studies reporting relevant causes for this variation. Objective. To investigate the potential role of city-average levels of air pollutants and climatic factors in order to distinguish differences in asthma prevalence in China and explain their reasons. Methods. Data pertaining to 10,777 asthmatic patients were obtained from the third nationwide survey of childhood asthma in China's urban areas. Annual mean concentrations of air pollutants and other climatic factors were obtained for the same period from several government departments. Data analysis was implemented with descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient, and multiple regression analysis. Results. Pearson correlation analysis showed that the situation of childhood asthma was strongly linked with SO2, relative humidity, and hours of sunshine (p < 0.05). Multiple regression analysis indicated that, among the predictor variables in the final step, SO2 was found to be the most powerful predictor variable amongst all (β = −19.572, p < 0.05). Furthermore, results had shown that hours of sunshine (β = −0.014, p < 0.05) was a significant component summary predictor variable. Conclusion. The findings of this study do not suggest that air pollutants or climate, at least in terms of children, plays a major role in explaining regional differences in asthma prevalence in China. PMID:27556031

Identifying ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth

PubMed Central

Chaubert-Pereira, Florence; Caraglio, Yves; Lavergne, Christian; Guédon, Yann

2009-01-01

Background and Aims This study aimed to identify and characterize the ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth. In the proposed approach, the tree growth data typically correspond to the retrospective measurement of annual shoot characteristics (e.g. length) along the trunk. Methods Dedicated statistical models (semi-Markov switching linear mixed models) were applied to data sets of Corsican pine and sessile oak. In the semi-Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from these data sets, the underlying semi-Markov chain represents both the succession of growth phases and their lengths, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and the inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase. Key Results On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that growth phases are not only defined by average growth level but also by growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity and that the individual tree status within the population may change between phases. Species plasticity affected the response to climatic factors while tree origin, sampling strategy and silvicultural interventions impacted inter-individual heterogeneity. Conclusions The transposition of the proposed integrative statistical modelling approach to cambial growth in relation to climatic factors and the study of the relationship between apical growth and cambial growth constitute the next steps in this research. PMID:19684021

Climate trends in the wood anatomy of Acacia sensu stricto (Leguminosae: Mimosoideae)

PubMed Central

Warwick, Nigel W. M.; Hailey, Luke; Clarke, Kerri L.

2017-01-01

Abstract Background and Aims This study investigates the structural diversity of the secondary xylem of 54 species of Acacia from four taxonomic sections collected across five climate regions along a 1200 km E–W transect from sub-tropical [approx. 1400 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP)] to arid (approx. 240 mm MAP) in New South Wales, Australia. Acacia sensu stricto (s.s.) is a critical group for understanding the effect of climate and phylogeny on the functional anatomy of wood. Methods Wood samples were sectioned in transverse, tangential and radial planes for light microscopy and analysis. Key Results The wood usually has thick-walled vessels and fibres, paratracheal parenchyma and uniseriate and biseriate rays, occasionally up to four cells wide. The greater abundance of gelatinous fibres in arid and semi-arid species may have ecological significance. Prismatic crystals in chambered fibres and axial parenchyma increased in abundance in semi-arid and arid species. Whereas vessel diameter showed only a small decrease from the sub-tropical to the arid region, there was a significant 2-fold increase in vessel frequency and a consequent 3-fold decrease in the vulnerability index. Conclusions Although the underlying phylogeny determines the qualitative wood structure, climate has a significant influence on the functional wood anatomy of Acacia s.s., which is an ideal genus to study the effect of these factors. PMID:28334287

Teamwork in the NICU Setting and Its Association with Health Care-Associated Infections in Very Low-Birth-Weight Infants.

PubMed

Profit, Jochen; Sharek, Paul J; Kan, Peiyi; Rigdon, Joseph; Desai, Manisha; Nisbet, Courtney C; Tawfik, Daniel S; Thomas, Eric J; Lee, Henry C; Sexton, J Bryan

2017-08-01

Background and Objective  Teamwork may affect clinical care in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) setting. The objective of this study was to assess teamwork climate across NICUs and to test scale-level and item-level associations with health care-associated infection (HAI) rates in very low-birth-weight (VLBW) infants. Methods  Cross-sectional study of the association between HAI rates, defined as any bacterial or fungal infection during the birth hospitalization, among 6,663 VLBW infants cared for in 44 NICUs between 2010 and 2012. NICU HAI rates were correlated with teamwork climate ratings obtained in 2011 from 2,073 of 3,294 eligible NICU health professionals (response rate 63%). The relation between HAI rates and NICU teamwork climate was assessed using logistic regression models including NICU as a random effect. Results  Across NICUs, 36 to 100% (mean 66%) of respondents reported good teamwork. HAI rates were significantly and independently associated with teamwork climate (odds ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.92, p  = 0.005), such that the odds of an infant contracting a HAI decreased by 18% with each 10% rise in NICU respondents reporting good teamwork. Conclusion  Improving teamwork may be an important element in infection control efforts. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes), changes in climate and related environmental conditions (e.g., sea level), and evolution of societal capability to respond to climate change. This wide range of scenarios is needed because the implications of climate change for the environment and society depend not only on changes in climate themselves, but also on human responses. This degree of breadth introduces and number of challenges for communication and research.« less

The geologic record of climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowley, T. J.

1982-01-01

Major results from paleoclimatic investigations are investigated, and background material is included. The time interval surveyed extends from the formation of the Earth 4.6 billion years ago to the development of the instrumental record.

Aviation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-27

This report provides background on aviation emissions and the factors affecting them; it discusses the tools available to control emissions, including existing authority under the Clean Air Act and proposed economy-wide cap-and-trade legislation; and...

Ozone and its projection in regard to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melkonyan, Ani; Wagner, Patrick

2013-03-01

In this paper, the dependence of ozone-forming potential on temperature was analysed based on data from two stations (with an industrial and rural background, respectively) in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany, for the period of 1983-2007. After examining the interrelations between ozone, NOx and temperature, a projection of the days with ozone exceedance (over a limit value of a daily maximum 8-h average ≥ 120 μg m-3 for 25 days per year averaged for 3 years) in terms of global climate change was made using probability theory and an autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. The results show that with a temperature increase of 3 K, the frequency of days when ozone exceeds its limit value will increase by 135% at the industrial station and by 87% at the rural background station.

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

2016-05-01

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming

PubMed Central

Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer

2016-01-01

Background Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. Design We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. Results The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. Conclusions There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young scientists remains a challenge and should lead to innovative courses for large audiences, such as Massive Open Online Courses. PMID:27339855

Trading off Aircraft Fuel Burn and NO x Emissions for Optimal Climate Policy.

PubMed

Freeman, Sarah; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling L; Skowron, Agnieszka; De León, Ruben Rodriguez

2018-03-06

Aviation emits pollutants that affect the climate, including CO 2 and NO x , NO x indirectly so, through the formation of tropospheric ozone and reduction of ambient methane. To improve the fuel performance of engines, combustor temperatures and pressures often increase, increasing NO x emissions. Conversely, combustor modifications to reduce NO x may increase CO 2 . Hence, a technology trade-off exists, which also translates to a trade-off between short-lived climate forcers and a long-lived greenhouse gas, CO 2 . Moreover, the NO x -O 3 -CH 4 system responds in a nonlinear manner, according to both aviation emissions and background NO x . A simple climate model was modified to incorporate nonlinearities parametrized from a complex chemistry model. Case studies showed that for a scenario of a 20% reduction in NO x emissions the consequential CO 2 penalty of 2% actually increased the total radiative forcing (RF). For a 2% fuel penalty, NO x emissions needed to be reduced by >43% to realize an overall benefit. Conversely, to ensure that the fuel penalty for a 20% NO x emission reduction did not increase overall forcing, a 0.5% increase in CO 2 was found to be the "break even" point. The time scales of the climate effects of NO x and CO 2 are quite different, necessitating careful analysis of proposed emissions trade-offs.

Parents' perceptions of the family climate for road safety.

PubMed

Taubman-Ben-Ari, Orit

2015-01-01

The current study examined the applicability of the Family Climate for Road Safety Scale (FCRSS; Taubman-Ben-Ari and Katz-Ben-Ami, 2013) to the parents of young drivers. The sample consisted of 549 parents and 234 of their children, all of whom completed the FCRSS. In addition, the parents completed the multidimensional driving style inventory (MDSI; Taubman-Ben-Ari et al., 2004) and provided background data (e.g., age, gender). Confirmatory factor analysis supported a slightly modified structure of the scale for parents. Examination of the correlations revealed significant weak to strong associations between parents' scores on the various FCRSS dimensions on the one hand, and their self-reported driving styles and offspring's perceptions of the family climate for safety on the other. The findings indicate that the FCRSS is suitable for use with the parents of young drivers, and that perceptions of the family climate are shared by the two generations. Furthermore, they show that family climate is related to parents' customary driving behavior, with the careful driving style positively related to the positive dimensions of the FCRSS. The discussion stresses the importance of the parents' influence on the manner in which their children drive, and the multifaceted nature of this influence. Moreover, it indicates the potential value of the FCRSS, both for research and for designing interventions and measuring their effectiveness. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accurate Radiometry from Space: An Essential Tool for Climate Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox, Nigel; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Thome, Kurtis; Young, Dave; Wielicki, Bruce; Winkler, Rainer; Woolliams, Emma

2011-01-01

The Earth s climate is undoubtedly changing; however, the time scale, consequences and causal attribution remain the subject of significant debate and uncertainty. Detection of subtle indicators from a background of natural variability requires measurements over a time base of decades. This places severe demands on the instrumentation used, requiring measurements of sufficient accuracy and sensitivity that can allow reliable judgements to be made decades apart. The International System of Units (SI) and the network of National Metrology Institutes were developed to address such requirements. However, ensuring and maintaining SI traceability of sufficient accuracy in instruments orbiting the Earth presents a significant new challenge to the metrology community. This paper highlights some key measurands and applications driving the uncertainty demand of the climate community in the solar reflective domain, e.g. solar irradiances and reflectances/radiances of the Earth. It discusses how meeting these uncertainties facilitate significant improvement in the forecasting abilities of climate models. After discussing the current state of the art, it describes a new satellite mission, called TRUTHS, which enables, for the first time, high-accuracy SI traceability to be established in orbit. The direct use of a primary standard and replication of the terrestrial traceability chain extends the SI into space, in effect realizing a metrology laboratory in space . Keywords: climate change; Earth observation; satellites; radiometry; solar irradiance

Projected changes to growth and mortality of Hawaiian corals over the next 100 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoeke, R.K.; Jokiel, P.L.; Buddemeier, R.W.; Brainard, R.E.

2011-01-01

Background: Recent reviews suggest that the warming and acidification of ocean surface waters predicated by most accepted climate projections will lead to mass mortality and declining calcification rates of reef-building corals. This study investigates the use of modeling techniques to quantitatively examine rates of coral cover change due to these effects. Methodology/Principal Findings: Broad-scale probabilities of change in shallow-water scleractinian coral cover in the Hawaiian Archipelago for years 2000-2099 A.D. were calculated assuming a single middle-of-the-road greenhouse gas emissions scenario. These projections were based on ensemble calculations of a growth and mortality model that used sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), observed coral growth (calcification) rates, and observed mortality linked to mass coral bleaching episodes as inputs. SST and CO2 predictions were derived from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) multi-model dataset, statistically downscaled with historical data. Conclusions/Significance: The model calculations illustrate a practical approach to systematic evaluation of climate change effects on corals, and also show the effect of uncertainties in current climate predictions and in coral adaptation capabilities on estimated changes in coral cover. Despite these large uncertainties, this analysis quantitatively illustrates that a large decline in coral cover is highly likely in the 21st Century, but that there are significant spatial and temporal variances in outcomes, even under a single climate change scenario.

Did glacially induced TPW end the ice age? A reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Ngai-Ham; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Daradich, Amy

2015-09-01

Previous studies of Earth rotation perturbations due to ice-age loading have predicted a slow secular drift of the rotation axis relative to the surface geography (i.e. true polar wander, TPW) of order of several degrees over the Plio-Pleistocene. It has been argued that this drift and the change in the geographic distribution of solar insolation that it implies may have been responsible for important transitions in ice-age climate, including the termination of ice-age cycles.We use a revised rotational stability theory that incorporates a more accurate treatment of the Earth's background ellipticity to reconsider this issue, and demonstrate that the net displacement of the pole predicted in earlier studies disappears. This more muted polar motion is due to two factors: first, the revised theory no longer predicts the permanent shift in the rotation axis, or the so-called `unidirectional TPW', that appears in the traditional stability theory; and, second, the increased background ellipticity incorporated in the revised predictions acts to reduce the normal mode amplitudes governing the motion of the pole. We conclude that ice-age-induced TPW was not responsible for the termination of the ice age. This does not preclude the possibility that TPW induced by mantle convective flow may have played a role in major Plio-Pleistocene climate transitions, including the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Agroclimate.Org: Tools and Information for a Climate Resilient Agriculture in the Southeast USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraisse, C.

2014-12-01

AgroClimate (http://agroclimate.org) is a web-based system developed to help the agricultural industry in the southeastern USA reduce risks associated with climate variability and change. It includes climate related information and dynamic application tools that interact with a climate and crop database system. Information available includes climate monitoring and forecasts combined with information about crop management practices that help increase the resiliency of the agricultural industry in the region. Recently we have included smartphone apps in the AgroClimate suite of tools, including irrigation management and crop disease alert systems. Decision support tools available in AgroClimate include: (a) Climate risk: expected (probabilistic) and historical climate information and freeze risk; (b) Crop yield risk: expected yield based on soil type, planting date, and basic management practices for selected commodities and historical county yield databases; (c) Crop diseases: disease risk monitoring and forecasting for strawberry and citrus; (d) Crop development: monitoring and forecasting of growing degree-days and chill accumulation; (e) Drought: monitoring and forecasting of selected drought indices, (f) Footprints: Carbon and water footprint calculators. The system also provides background information about the main drivers of climate variability and basic information about climate change in the Southeast USA. AgroClimate has been widely used as an educational tool by the Cooperative Extension Services in the region and also by producers. It is now being replicated internationally with version implemented in Mozambique and Paraguay.

Measurements of Background and Polluted Air in Rural Regions of Rwanda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWitt, L.; Gasore, J.; Prinn, R. G.; Potter, K. E.

2015-12-01

Rwanda, a mountainous nation in Equatorial East Africa, is one of the least-urbanized nations in Africa. The majority of the population are subsistence farmers, and major sources of air pollution (e.g., particulates, greenhouse gases) in Rwanda include agricultural burning and cookstoves in rural areas, and older diesel vehicles and mototaxis in cities. Currently, initiatives to supply efficient cookstoves, development of cleaner-burning fuel from recycled agricultural waste, and new regulations on vehicle emissions and importation are underway. These initiatives seek to help Rwanda grow in the greenest way possible, to mitigate negative health and climate effects of development; however, little ambient data on air quality is available in different regions of Rwanda for a baseline study before and benefits study after these initiatives. The Rwanda Climate Observatory, located on the summit of Mt. Mugogo (-1.5833°, 29.5667°), a 2.5 km peak, has recently begun measurements of black carbon (BC) aerosol concentration and O3 and CO gas concentrations. BC measurements were performed with a 7-wavelength Magee Scientific aethalometer and the aethalometer model was used to calculate the influence of fossil fuel and biomass burning sources on BC concentrations. CO and O3 measurements were used in conjunction with BC aerosol data, and HYSPLIT back trajectories were also used to help discriminate between periods of heavy burning and periods of regional influence from traffic and general cookfire emissions. Since Mt. Mugogo is in a rural area, this station captures a snapshot of regional background pollution away from high anthropogenic influence. The nearby households and fields also allow case studies of household and crop burning during localized events and help quanitfy potential daily exposure to particulates and climate-forcing emissions in remote areas of this developing country. We will present time series of the BC, O3, CO and insolation measurements at Mt. Mugogo, and interpret them in terms of sources, circulation, air chemistry and physics, and sinks.

Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

2004-01-01

The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

Using critical evaluation to reappraise plausibility judgments: A critical cognitive component of conceptual change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardi, D.

2011-12-01

Plausibility judgments-although well represented in conceptual change theories (see, for example, Chi, 2005; diSessa, 1993; Dole & Sinatra, 1998; Posner et al., 1982)-have received little empirical attention until our recent work investigating teachers' and students' understanding of and perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010, 2011). In our first study with undergraduate students, we found that greater plausibility perceptions of human-induced climate accounted for significantly greater understanding of weather and climate distinctions after instruction, even after accounting for students' prior knowledge (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010). In a follow-up study with inservice science and preservice elementary teachers, we showed that anger about the topic of climate change and teaching about climate change was significantly related to implausible perceptions about human-induced climate change (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2011). Results from our recent studies helped to inform our development of a model of the role of plausibility judgments in conceptual change situations. The model applies to situations involving cognitive dissonance, where background knowledge conflicts with an incoming message. In such situations, we define plausibility as a judgment on the relative potential truthfulness of incoming information compared to one's existing mental representations (Rescher, 1976). Students may not consciously think when making plausibility judgments, expending only minimal mental effort in what is referred to as an automatic cognitive process (Stanovich, 2009). However, well-designed instruction could facilitate students' reappraisal of plausibility judgments in more effortful and conscious cognitive processing. Critical evaluation specifically may be one effective method to promote plausibility reappraisal in a classroom setting (Lombardi & Sinatra, in progress). In science education, critical evaluation involves the analysis of how evidentiary data support a hypothesis and its alternatives. The presentation will focus on how instruction promoting critical evaluation can encourage individuals to reappraise their plausibility judgments and initiate knowledge reconstruction. In a recent pilot study, teachers experienced an instructional scaffold promoting critical evaluation of two competing climate change theories (i.e., human-induced and increasing solar irradiance) and significantly changed both their plausibility judgments and perceptions of correctness toward the scientifically-accepted model of human-induced climate change. A comparison group of teachers who did not experience the critical evaluation activity showed no significant change. The implications of these studies for future research and instruction will be discussed in the presentation, including effective ways to increase students' and teachers' ability to be critically evaluative and reappraise their plausibility judgments. With controversial science issues, such as climate change, such abilities may be necessary to facilitate conceptual change.

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

PubMed Central

Julio Camarero, J.; Gazol, Antonio; Sancho-Benages, Santiago; Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs). Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits. Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen. Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios. PMID:26292992

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

An abrupt centennial-scale drought event and mid-holocene climate change patterns in monsoon marginal zones of East Asia.

PubMed

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0-7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features.

An Abrupt Centennial-Scale Drought Event and Mid-Holocene Climate Change Patterns in Monsoon Marginal Zones of East Asia

PubMed Central

Li, Yu; Wang, Nai'ang; Zhang, Chengqi

2014-01-01

The mid-latitudes of East Asia are characterized by the interaction between the Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds. Understanding long-term climate change in the marginal regions of the Asian monsoon is critical for understanding the millennial-scale interactions between the Asian monsoon and the westerly winds. Abrupt climate events are always associated with changes in large-scale circulation patterns; therefore, investigations into abrupt climate changes provide clues for responses of circulation patterns to extreme climate events. In this paper, we examined the time scale and mid-Holocene climatic background of an abrupt dry mid-Holocene event in the Shiyang River drainage basin in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon. Mid-Holocene lacustrine records were collected from the middle reaches and the terminal lake of the basin. Using radiocarbon and OSL ages, a centennial-scale drought event, which is characterized by a sand layer in lacustrine sediments both from the middle and lower reaches of the basin, was absolutely dated between 8.0–7.0 cal kyr BP. Grain size data suggest an abrupt decline in lake level and a dry environment in the middle reaches of the basin during the dry interval. Previous studies have shown mid-Holocene drought events in other places of monsoon marginal zones; however, their chronologies are not strong enough to study the mechanism. According to the absolutely dated records, we proposed a new hypothesis that the mid-Holocene dry interval can be related to the weakening Asian summer monsoon and the relatively arid environment in arid Central Asia. Furthermore, abrupt dry climatic events are directly linked to the basin-wide effective moisture change in semi-arid and arid regions. Effective moisture is affected by basin-wide precipitation, evapotranspiration, lake surface evaporation and other geographical settings. As a result, the time scales of the dry interval could vary according to locations due to different geographical features. PMID:24599259

Comparison of Shoulder Range of Motion, Strength, and Playing Time in Uninjured High School Baseball Pitchers Who Reside in Warm- and Cold-Weather Climates

PubMed Central

Kaplan, Kevin M.; ElAttrache, Neal S.; Jobe, Frank W.; Morrey, Bernard F.; Kaufman, Kenton R.; Hurd, Wendy J.

2014-01-01

Background There is an assumption that baseball athletes who reside in warm-weather climates experience larger magnitude adaptations in throwing shoulder motion and strength compared with their peers who reside in cold-weather climates. Hypotheses (1) The warm-weather climate (WWC) group would exhibit more pronounced shoulder motion and strength adaptations than the cold-weather climate (CWC) group, and (2) the WWC group would participate in pitching activities for a greater proportion of the year than the CWC group, with the time spent pitching predicting throwing shoulder motion and strength in both groups. Study Design Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods One hundred uninjured high school pitchers (50 each WWC, CWC) were recruited. Rotational shoulder motion and isometric strength were measured and participants reported the number of months per year they pitched. To identify differences between groups, t tests were performed; linear regression was used to determine the influence of pitching volume on shoulder motion and strength. Results The WWC group pitched more months per year than athletes from the CWC group, with the number of months spent pitching negatively related to internal rotation motion and external rotation strength. The WWC group exhibited greater shoulder range of motion in all planes compared with the CWC group, as well as significantly lower external rotation strength and external/internal rotation strength ratios. There was no difference in internal rotation strength between groups, nor a difference in the magnitude of side-to-side differences for strength or motion measures. Conclusion Athletes who reside in cold- and warm-weather climates exhibit differences in throwing shoulder motion and strength, related in part to the number of months spent participating in pitching activities. The amount of time spent participating in pitching activities and the magnitude of range of motion and strength adaptations in athletes who reside in warm-weather climates may make these athletes more susceptible to throwing-related injuries. PMID:21051421

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. PMID:29023503

Middle to Late Pleistocene environmental and climatic reconstruction of the human occurrence at Grotta Maggiore di San Bernardino (Vicenza, Italy) through the small-mammal assemblage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-García, Juan Manuel; Luzi, Elisa; Peresani, Marco

2017-07-01

Grotta Maggiore di San Bernardino, located at an altitude of 135 m a.s.l. in the Berici Hills in northeastern Italy, is an archaeological site with a discontinuous sedimentary sequence dating from Marine Isotope Stage 7 (MIS 7) to MIS 3. In this paper we present for the first time a palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic reconstruction of the sequence based on small-mammal (insectivore, bat and rodent) assemblages. Coupled with biochronological data and absolute dating together with previous studies on large mammals, birds and other studies on small mammals and pollen from comparable time-spans in Italy, the results enable us clearly to identify distinct climatic periods: the end of MIS 7 (7c to 7a) in units VIII-VII, MIS 5d in unit V, and probably MIS 5b in unit IV and an indeterminate MIS 3 interstadial in units III-II. Finally, the study shows that the early Middle Palaeolithic human occupation in Italy occurs during mild and temperate sub-stages of MIS 7 and that human groups with the same techno-cultural background (Mousterian) were well adapted to the changing environmental and climatic conditions of the Middle to Late Pleistocene in this part of southern Europe.

Paleoclimates: Understanding climate change past and present

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2010-01-01

The field of paleoclimatology relies on physical, chemical, and biological proxies of past climate changes that have been preserved in natural archives such as glacial ice, tree rings, sediments, corals, and speleothems. Paleoclimate archives obtained through field investigations, ocean sediment coring expeditions, ice sheet coring programs, and other projects allow scientists to reconstruct climate change over much of earth's history. When combined with computer model simulations, paleoclimatic reconstructions are used to test hypotheses about the causes of climatic change, such as greenhouse gases, solar variability, earth's orbital variations, and hydrological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. This book is a comprehensive, state-of-the art synthesis of paleoclimate research covering all geological timescales, emphasizing topics that shed light on modern trends in the earth's climate. Thomas M. Cronin discusses recent discoveries about past periods of global warmth, changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, abrupt climate and sea-level change, natural temperature variability, and other topics directly relevant to controversies over the causes and impacts of climate change. This text is geared toward advanced undergraduate and graduate students and researchers in geology, geography, biology, glaciology, oceanography, atmospheric sciences, and climate modeling, fields that contribute to paleoclimatology. This volume can also serve as a reference for those requiring a general background on natural climate variability.

Health coping strategies of the people vulnerable to climate change in a resource-poor rural setting in Bangladesh

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Among the many challenges faced by the people of Bangladesh, the effects of climate change are discernibly threatening, impacting on human settlement, agricultural production, economic development, and human health. Bangladesh is a low-income country with limited resources; its vulnerability to climate change has influenced individuals to seek out health coping strategies. The objectives of the study were to explore the different strategies/measures people employ to cope with climate sensitive diseases and sickness. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 450 households from Rajshahi and Khulna districts of Bangladesh selected through multi-stage sampling techniques, using a semi-structured questionnaire supplemented by 12 focus group discussions and 15 key informant interviews. Results Respondents applied 22 types of primary health coping strategies to prevent climate related diseases and sickness. To cope with health problems, 80.8% used personal treatment experiences and 99.3% sought any treatments available at village level. The percentage of respondents that visited unqualified health providers to cope with climate induced health problems was quite high, namely 92.7% visited village doctors, 75.9% drug stores, and 67.3% self-medicated. Ninety per cent of the respondents took treatment from unqualified providers as their first choice. Public health facilities were the first choice of treatment for only 11.0% of respondents. On average, every household spent Bangladesh Currency Taka 9,323 per year for the treatment of climate sensitive diseases and sickness. Only 46% of health expenditure was managed from their savings. The rest, 54% expenditure, was supported by using 24 different sources, such as social capital and the selling of family assets. The rate of out-of-pocket payment was almost 100%. Conclusion People are concerned about climate induced diseases and sickness and sought preventive as well as curative measures to cope with health problems. The most common and widely used climate health coping strategies among the respondents included self-medicating and seeking the health service of unqualified private health care providers. Per family spending to cope with such health problems is expensive and completely based on out of pocket payment. There is no fund pooling, community funding or health insurance program in rural areas to support the health coping of the people. Policies are needed to reduce out-of-pocket payment, to improve the quality of the unqualified providers and to extend public health services at rural areas and support climate related health coping. Collection of such knowledge on climate related health coping strategies can allow researchers to study any specific issue on health coping, and policy makers to initiate effective climate related health coping strategies for climate vulnerable people. PMID:23759111

Energy, climate, food and health.

PubMed

Erwin, Patricia J

2008-01-01

On June 3-5, 2008, international organizations and heads of state met in Rome to discuss the critical situation in global food supplies and prices during the World Food Crisis Summit. The intent of this column is to provide approaches to identifying the complex issues that impact public health, public safety, and nutrition on a global basis. The Web sites selected provide a background for the complex issues involved (energy, climate and environment, agriculture, and politics) and reveal controversial and competing agendas with many far-reaching implications.

A Model for Teaching a Climate Change Elective Science Course at the Community College Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandia, S. A.

2012-12-01

The impact of global climate change is far-reaching, both for humanity and for the environment. It is essential that our students be provided a strong scientific background for the role of natural and human caused climate change so that they are better prepared to become involved in the discussion. Here the author reveals a successful model designed for use with a diverse student body at the community college level. Teaching strategies beyond the traditional lecture and exam style include: web-based resources such as static websites along with dynamic blogging tools, post-lecture cooperative learning review sessions, weekly current event research projects, use of rubrics to assist students in their own project evaluation before submission, and a research paper utilizing the Skeptical Science website to examine the validity of the most common climate change myths.

Association of Climatic Variability, Vector Population and Malarial Disease in District of Visakhapatnam, India: A Modeling and Prediction Analysis

PubMed Central

Srimath-Tirumula-Peddinti, Ravi Chandra Pavan Kumar; Neelapu, Nageswara Rao Reddy; Sidagam, Naresh

2015-01-01

Background Malarial incidence, severity, dynamics and distribution of malaria are strongly determined by climatic factors, i.e., temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity. The objectives of the current study were to analyse and model the relationships among climate, vector and malaria disease in district of Visakhapatnam, India to understand malaria transmission mechanism (MTM). Methodology Epidemiological, vector and climate data were analysed for the years 2005 to 2011 in Visakhapatnam to understand the magnitude, trends and seasonal patterns of the malarial disease. Statistical software MINITAB ver. 14 was used for performing correlation, linear and multiple regression analysis. Results/Findings Perennial malaria disease incidence and mosquito population was observed in the district of Visakhapatnam with peaks in seasons. All the climatic variables have a significant influence on disease incidence as well as on mosquito populations. Correlation coefficient analysis, seasonal index and seasonal analysis demonstrated significant relationships among climatic factors, mosquito population and malaria disease incidence in the district of Visakhapatnam, India. Multiple regression and ARIMA (I) models are best suited models for modeling and prediction of disease incidences and mosquito population. Predicted values of average temperature, mosquito population and malarial cases increased along with the year. Developed MTM algorithm observed a major MTM cycle following the June to August rains and occurring between June to September and minor MTM cycles following March to April rains and occurring between March to April in the district of Visakhapatnam. Fluctuations in climatic factors favored an increase in mosquito populations and thereby increasing the number of malarial cases. Rainfall, temperatures (20°C to 33°C) and humidity (66% to 81%) maintained a warmer, wetter climate for mosquito growth, parasite development and malaria transmission. Conclusions/Significance Changes in climatic factors influence malaria directly by modifying the behaviour and geographical distribution of vectors and by changing the length of the life cycle of the parasite. PMID:26110279

Excessive Heat and Respiratory Hospitalizations in New York State: Estimating Current and Future Public Health Burden Related to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Hsu, Wan-Hsiang; Van Zutphen, Alissa R.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George; Hwang, Syni-An

2012-01-01

Background: Although many climate-sensitive environmental exposures are related to mortality and morbidity, there is a paucity of estimates of the public health burden attributable to climate change. Objective: We estimated the excess current and future public health impacts related to respiratory hospitalizations attributable to extreme heat in summer in New York State (NYS) overall, its geographic regions, and across different demographic strata. Methods: On the basis of threshold temperature and percent risk changes identified from our study in NYS, we estimated recent and future attributable risks related to extreme heat due to climate change using the global climate model with various climate scenarios. We estimated effects of extreme high apparent temperature in summer on respiratory admissions, days hospitalized, direct hospitalization costs, and lost productivity from days hospitalized after adjusting for inflation. Results: The estimated respiratory disease burden attributable to extreme heat at baseline (1991–2004) in NYS was 100 hospital admissions, US$644,069 in direct hospitalization costs, and 616 days of hospitalization per year. Projections for 2080–2099 based on three different climate scenarios ranged from 206–607 excess hospital admissions, US$26–$76 million in hospitalization costs, and 1,299–3,744 days of hospitalization per year. Estimated impacts varied by geographic region and population demographics. Conclusions: We estimated that excess respiratory admissions in NYS due to excessive heat would be 2 to 6 times higher in 2080–2099 than in 1991–2004. When combined with other heat-associated diseases and mortality, the potential public health burden associated with global warming could be substantial. PMID:22922791

Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Rap, Alexandru; Maycock, Amanda C.; Wild, Oliver; Young, Paul J.

2018-05-01

Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm-2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm-2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm-2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm-2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm-2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry-climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm-2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ˜ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000-2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

PubMed

Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

2014-09-15

Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Effective and responsible teaching of climate change in Earth Science-related disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Z. P.; Greenhough, B. J.

2009-04-01

Climate change is a core topic within Earth Science-related courses. This vast topic covers a wide array of different aspects that could be covered, from past climatic change across a vast range of scales to environmental (and social and economic) impacts of future climatic change and strategies for reducing anthropogenic climate change. The Earth Science disciplines play a crucial role in our understanding of past, present and future climate change and the Earth system in addition to understanding leading to development of strategies and technological solutions to achieve sustainability. However, an increased knowledge of the occurrence and causes of past (natural) climate changes can lead to a lessened concern and sense of urgency and responsibility amongst students in relation to anthropogenic causes of climatic change. Two concepts integral to the teaching of climate change are those of scientific uncertainty and complexity, yet an emphasis on these concepts can lead to scepticism about future predictions and a further loss of sense of urgency. The requirement to understand the nature of scientific uncertainty and think and move between different scales in particular relating an increased knowledge of longer timescale climatic change to recent (industrialised) climate change, are clearly areas of troublesome knowledge that affect students' sense of responsibility towards their role in achieving a sustainable society. Study of the attitudes of university students in a UK HE institution on a range of Earth Science-related programmes highlights a range of different attitudes in the student body towards the subject of climate change. Students express varied amounts of ‘climate change saturation' resulting from both media and curriculum coverage, a range of views relating to the significance of humans to the global climate and a range of opinions about the relevance of environmental citizenship to their degree programme. Climate change is therefore a challenging topic to cover within the Earth Science-related curricula due to wide-ranging, and sometimes polarised, existing attitudes of students and levels of existing partial and sometimes flawed knowledge in addition to the troublesome concepts that need to be grasped. These issues highlight the responsibility and challenge inherent in teaching the subject of climate change and the importance of consideration of integrating sustainability issues with the core science of climate change. The talk will include a discussion of strategies and resources for the effective teaching of climate change topics for a range of levels and discipline backgrounds.

Urban Form and Extreme Heat Events: Are Sprawling Cities More Vulnerable to Climate Change Than Compact Cities?

PubMed Central

Stone, Brian; Hess, Jeremy J.; Frumkin, Howard

2010-01-01

Background Extreme heat events (EHEs) are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather. In addition, low-density, sprawling patterns of urban development have been associated with enhanced surface temperatures in urbanized areas. Objectives In this study. we examined the association between urban form at the level of the metropolitan region and the frequency of EHEs over a five-decade period. Methods We employed a widely published sprawl index to measure the association between urban form in 2000 and the mean annual rate of change in EHEs between 1956 and 2005. Results We found that the rate of increase in the annual number of EHEs between 1956 and 2005 in the most sprawling metropolitan regions was more than double the rate of increase observed in the most compact metropolitan regions. Conclusions The design and management of land use in metropolitan regions may offer an important tool for adapting to the heat-related health effects associated with ongoing climate change. PMID:21114000

Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change

PubMed Central

Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Erbrecht, Tim; Heyder, Ursula; Cramer, Wolfgang

2006-01-01

Background Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) compute the terrestrial carbon balance as well as the transient spatial distribution of vegetation. We study two scenarios of moderate and strong climate change (2.9 K and 5.3 K temperature increase over present) to investigate the spatial redistribution of major vegetation types and their carbon balance in the year 2100. Results The world's land vegetation will be more deciduous than at present, and contain about 125 billion tons of additional carbon. While a recession of the boreal forest is simulated in some areas, along with a general expansion to the north, we do not observe a reported collapse of the central Amazonian rain forest. Rather, a decrease of biomass and a change of vegetation type occurs in its northeastern part. The ability of the terrestrial biosphere to sequester carbon from the atmosphere declines strongly in the second half of the 21st century. Conclusion Climate change will cause widespread shifts in the distribution of major vegetation functional types on all continents by the year 2100. PMID:16930462

Climate change and consequences in the Arctic: perception of climate change by the Nenets people of Vaigach Island

PubMed Central

Davydov, Alexander N.; Mikhailova, Galina V.

2011-01-01

Background Arctic climate change is already having a significant impact on the environment, economic activity, and public health. For the northern peoples, traditions and cultural identity are closely related to the natural environment so any change will have consequences for society in several ways. Methods A questionnaire was given to the population on the Vaigach island, the Nenets who rely to a large degree on hunting, fishing and reindeer herding for survival. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted about perception of climate change. Results Climate change is observed and has already had an impact on daily life according to more than 50% of the respondents. The winter season is now colder and longer and the summer season colder and shorter. A decrease in standard of living was noticeable but few were planning to leave. Conclusion Climate change has been noticed in the region and it has a negative impact on the standard of living for the Nenets. However, as of yet they do not want to leave as cultural identity is important for their overall well-being. PMID:22091216

JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice (ETSI), Third Session Steering Group for the Global Digital Sea Ice Data Bank (GDSIDB) Eleventh Session

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

SHIPPING ASSESSMENT (AMSA) - TERMS OF REFERENCE BACKGROUND In November 2004, the Arctic Council released the Arctic Climate Impact Assesment (ACIA...studied. Project Plan: In an effort to assess Arctic marine activity and the resulting social, economic, and environmental impacts , the AMSA project is...Economics) WP 4 - Environmental Impact of Today’s Arctic Marine Activity WP 5 - Environmental Impact of Arctic Marine Activity in 2020 and 2050 WP 6

Some anatomical and physiological aspects of anal sexual practices.

PubMed

Agnew, J

1985-01-01

Anal manipulation and penetration produce stimulation enjoyed as sexual by some people. Although this type of sexual activity is not new, the current social climate of sexual freedom and experimentation has brought it out into the open. This paper reviews some of the anatomical, physiological, and behavioral aspects of this variation of human sexual gratification, and provides the practicing professional, who has to deal with questions on anal sexuality, with information on the subject and suitable background material and literature references for further study.

Perception, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change: A survey among CDC health professionals in Shanxi province, China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Junni, E-mail: junxinni@163.com; Hansen, Alana, E-mail: alana.hansen@adelaide.edu.au; Zhang, Ying, E-mail: ying.zhang@sydney.edu.au

Background: A better understanding of public perceptions, attitude and behavior in relation to climate change will provide an important foundation for government's policy-making, service provider's guideline development and the engagement of local communities. The purpose of this study was to assess the perception towards climate change, behavior change, mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the central government among the health professionals in the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China. Methods: In 2013, a cross-sectional questionnaire survey was undertaken among 314 CDC health professionals in various levels of CDC in Shanxi Province, China. Descriptive analyses were performed. Results:more » More than two thirds of the respondents believed that climate change has happened at both global and local levels, and climate change would lead to adverse impacts to human beings. Most respondents (74.8%) indicated the emission of greenhouse gases was the cause of climate change, however there was a lack of knowledge about greenhouse gases and their sources. Media was the main source from which respondents obtained the information about climate change. A majority of respondents showed that they were willing to change behavior, but their actions were limited. In terms of mitigation and adaptation measures issued by the Chinese Government, respondents' perception showed inconsistency between strategies and relevant actions. Moreover, although the majority of respondents believed some strategies and measures were extremely important to address climate change, they were still concerned about economic development, energy security, and local environmental protection. Conclusion: There are gaps between perceptions and actions towards climate change among these health professionals. Further efforts need to be made to raise the awareness of climate change among health professionals, and to promote relevant actions to address climate change in the context of the proposed policies with local sustainable development. - Highlights: • Global climate change has significant impacts on human wellbeing and health. • Health professionals play a significant role in improving the health of local citizens in China. • Perceptions of CDC staff on climate change are useful for policy making. • There are gaps between perceptions and actions among these health professionals in China. • Further efforts need to raise awareness of climate change and promote relevant actions.« less

Can the biomass-ratio hypothesis predict mixed-species litter decomposition along a climatic gradient?

PubMed Central

Tardif, Antoine; Shipley, Bill; Bloor, Juliette M. G.; Soussana, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Background and Aims The biomass-ratio hypothesis states that ecosystem properties are driven by the characteristics of dominant species in the community. In this study, the hypothesis was operationalized as community-weighted means (CWMs) of monoculture values and tested for predicting the decomposition of multispecies litter mixtures along an abiotic gradient in the field. Methods Decomposition rates (mg g−1 d−1) of litter from four herb species were measured using litter-bed experiments with the same soil at three sites in central France along a correlated climatic gradient of temperature and precipitation. All possible combinations from one to four species mixtures were tested over 28 weeks of incubation. Observed mixture decomposition rates were compared with those predicted by the biomass-ratio hypothesis. Variability of the prediction errors was compared with the species richness of the mixtures, across sites, and within sites over time. Key Results Both positive and negative prediction errors occurred. Despite this, the biomass-ratio hypothesis was true as an average claim for all sites (r = 0·91) and for each site separately, except for the climatically intermediate site, which showed mainly synergistic deviations. Variability decreased with increasing species richness and in less favourable climatic conditions for decomposition. Conclusions Community-weighted mean values provided good predictions of mixed-species litter decomposition, converging to the predicted values with increasing species richness and in climates less favourable to decomposition. Under a context of climate change, abiotic variability would be important to take into account when predicting ecosystem processes. PMID:24482152

Research on plant utilization and adaptation to environment of human in Guangxi of Southern China during the latest 30000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y.; Xie, G.

2017-12-01

It is an important scientific problem in the study of the relationship between man and land to select the key areas and important periods of human evolution. In the latest 30 thousand years, it is an important period for late Pleistocene climate change, which has a profound impact on human evolution. Southern China including Guangxi has a unique geographical landscape pattern and unique vegetation and climate background, which is not only an important channel for the diffusion and migration of ancient humans but also an ideal refuge to avoid climate changes. It preserved the rich archaeological remains of the evolution and development of human beings, and provided a rare place for the adaptive strategies of human survival and early the environment. In this paper, Yahuai cave site in Guangxi will be selected for investigation. We will analyze the continuous accumulation of ancient human remains, and utilized AMS14C to reconstruct the dating framework. We will also extract the plant information and environment of the site through pollen, phytolith, grain and starch grains. We will further explore the succession mode of utilization of plant resources and its relationship with climate change and reveal the adaptability to the environment and strategy.

Undergraduates study climate change science, philosophy, and public policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bullock, Mark A.; Frodeman, Robert L.

The National Science Foundation's (NSF) Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program provides undergraduate students with the opportunity to participate in ongoing scientific research. Existing either as stand-alone summer programs or as supplementary components to existing NSF research grants, the REU program focuses on introducing aspiring young scientists to the delights and complexities of science. Global Climate Change and Society (GCCS) is an intensive, 8-week REU program that began a 3-year run in the summer of 2001.Developed by a philosopher at the Colorado School of Mines, and a planetary scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colrado, GCCS is a unique experiment in research and pedagogy that introduces students to science by using a distinctive approach. Choosing as its topic the questions surrounding global climate change, the program explores the interwoven scientific, philosophical, and public policy issues that make the climate change debate such a volatile topic in contemporary society. Last summer, the program selected 12 undergraduates through a nationally advertised competition. Student interns came from diverse academic and cultural backgrounds and included physics, philosophy and public policy majors from elite liberal arts schools, major research institutions, and mainstream state universities. The program was held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado (Figure 1).

Sporo-pollen assemblage and paleoclimate events in shelf area of the southern Yellow Sea since 15 ka B. P.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Guanglan; Han, Yousong; Wang, Shaoqing; Wang, Zhenyan

2004-03-01

Based on the authors’ 1986 to 1994 sporo-pollen assemblage analysis in the southern Yellow Sea area, data from 3 main cores were studied in combination with14C, palaeomagnetic and thermoluminescence data. The evolution of the paleoclimate environments in the southern Yellow Sea since 15ka B. P. was revealed that, in deglaciation of the last glacial period, the climate of late glaciation transformed into that of postglaciation, accompanied by a series of violent climate fluctuations. These evolution events happened in a global climate background and related to the geographic changes in eastern China. We distinguished three short-term cooling events and two warming events. Among them, the sporo-pollen assemblage of subzone A1 showed some cold climate features indicating that a cooling event occurred at about 15-14ka. B. P. in early deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Oldest Dryas. In subzone A3, many drought-enduring herbal pollens and some few pollens of cold-resistant Picea, Abies, etc. were found, which indicated that a cooling event, with cold and arid climate, occurred at about 12-11ka. B. P. in late deglaciation. This subzone corresponds to the Younger Dryas. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone B showed warm and arid climate features in postglaciation. Although the assemblage of subzone B2 indicated a cold and arid climate environment, the development of flora in subzone B2 climate was less cold than that in A3. Subzone B2 indicated a cooling event which occurred at about 9ka B. P. in early olocene. Subzone A2, with some distinct differences from subzone A1 and A3, indicated a warming event which occurred at 14-13ka. B.P. and should correspond to a warming fluctuation. The sporo-pollen assemblage of zone C showed features of warn-moist flora and climate, and indicated a warming event which universally occurred along the coast of eastern China at 8-3 ka B. P. in middle Holocene, and its duration was longer than that of any climate events mentioned above. This period was climatic optimum and belonged to an altithermal period in postglaciation.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L

2017-03-07

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

PubMed Central

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike. PMID:28267144

Climate Change Denial Books and Conservative Think Tanks

PubMed Central

Jacques, Peter J.

2013-01-01

The conservative movement and especially its think tanks play a critical role in denying the reality and significance of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), especially by manufacturing uncertainty over climate science. Books denying AGW are a crucial means of attacking climate science and scientists, and we examine the links between conservative think tanks (CTTs) and 108 climate change denial books published through 2010. We find a strong link, albeit noticeably weaker for the growing number of self-published denial books. We also examine the national origins of the books and the academic backgrounds of their authors or editors, finding that with the help of American CTTs climate change denial has spread to several other nations and that an increasing portion of denial books are produced by individuals with no scientific training. It appears that at least 90% of denial books do not undergo peer review, allowing authors or editors to recycle scientifically unfounded claims that are then amplified by the conservative movement, media, and political elites. PMID:24098056

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2017-03-01

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a `business-as-usual' scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Short-Term Effects of Climatic Variables on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Mainland China, 2008–2013: A Multilevel Spatial Poisson Regression Model Accounting for Overdispersion

PubMed Central

Yang, Fang; Yang, Min; Hu, Yuehua; Zhang, Juying

2016-01-01

Background Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a worldwide infectious disease. In China, many provinces have reported HFMD cases, especially the south and southwest provinces. Many studies have found a strong association between the incidence of HFMD and climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. However, few studies have analyzed cluster effects between various geographical units. Methods The nonlinear relationships and lag effects between weekly HFMD cases and climatic variables were estimated for the period of 2008–2013 using a polynomial distributed lag model. The extra-Poisson multilevel spatial polynomial model was used to model the exact relationship between weekly HFMD incidence and climatic variables after considering cluster effects, provincial correlated structure of HFMD incidence and overdispersion. The smoothing spline methods were used to detect threshold effects between climatic factors and HFMD incidence. Results The HFMD incidence spatial heterogeneity distributed among provinces, and the scale measurement of overdispersion was 548.077. After controlling for long-term trends, spatial heterogeneity and overdispersion, temperature was highly associated with HFMD incidence. Weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference approximate inverse “V” shape and “V” shape relationships associated with HFMD incidence. The lag effects for weekly average temperature and weekly temperature difference were 3 weeks and 2 weeks. High spatial correlated HFMD incidence were detected in northern, central and southern province. Temperature can be used to explain most of variation of HFMD incidence in southern and northeastern provinces. After adjustment for temperature, eastern and Northern provinces still had high variation HFMD incidence. Conclusion We found a relatively strong association between weekly HFMD incidence and weekly average temperature. The association between the HFMD incidence and climatic variables spatial heterogeneity distributed across provinces. Future research should explore the risk factors that cause spatial correlated structure or high variation of HFMD incidence which can be explained by temperature. When analyzing association between HFMD incidence and climatic variables, spatial heterogeneity among provinces should be evaluated. Moreover, the extra-Poisson multilevel model was capable of modeling the association between overdispersion of HFMD incidence and climatic variables. PMID:26808311

A Comparison of Organizational Climate and Nurses’ Intention to Leave Among Excellence Awarded Hospitals and Other Hospitals in 2013

PubMed Central

Mohamadzadeh Nojehdehi, Maryam; Ashgholi Farahani, Mansoureh; Rafii, Forough; Bahrani, Nasser

2015-01-01

Background: Human resource is the most important factor of performance, success and better revelation of excellence goals of each organization. By performing excellence plan, healthcare organizations improve their organizational climate and play a valuable role in retaining nurses and improving the quality of their services to patients. Objectives: The aim of this study was to compare hospital organizational climate and intention to leave among working nurses in hospitals performing the excellence plan and other hospitals of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. Patients and Methods: This was a cross-sectional descriptive comparison study. Its population included 248 nurses of the hospitals performing the excellence plan and other hospitals of Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Iran selected by random sampling. The used instrument had three parts: the first part was related to personal characteristics, the second part was the Munn’s organizational climate questionnaire and the third part was Hinshaw’s questionnaire of “anticipated turnover scale”. Data was analyzed using SPSS software, version 17 and indices of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Results: The results of the mean and standard deviation for organizational climate and intention to leave in both performing and non-performing hospitals of the organizational excellence plan were respectively (65.28 ± 19.31 and 56.42 ± 21.36) and (33.64 ± 5.58 and 35.59 ± 4.94). Independent T test revealed a significant difference between the mean scores for organizational climate in both performing and non-performing hospitals, and also a significant difference between the mean scores for intention to leave in both performing and non-performing hospitals (P = 0.004). Moreover, Pearson Correlation test showed a reverse significant correlation between organizational climate and intention to leave in performing hospitals of the organizational excellence plan (r = -0.337) and non-performing hospitals (r = -0.282) (P = 0.001). Conclusions: Performing quality improvement pattern such as organization’s excellence plan improves organizational climate of healthcare sectors, it can reduce nurses’ intentions to leave and retain human resources. PMID:26082850

Divergence and diversification in North American Psoraleeae (Fabaceae) due to climate change

PubMed Central

Egan, Ashley N; Crandall, Keith A

2008-01-01

Background Past studies in the legume family (Fabaceae) have uncovered several evolutionary trends including differential mutation and diversification rates across varying taxonomic levels. The legume tribe Psoraleeae is shown herein to exemplify these trends at the generic and species levels. This group includes a sizable diversification within North America dated at approximately 6.3 million years ago with skewed species distribution to the most recently derived genus, Pediomelum, suggesting a diversification rate shift. We estimate divergence dates of North American (NAm) Psoraleeae using Bayesian MCMC sampling in BEAST based on eight DNA regions (ITS, waxy, matK, trnD-trnT, trnL-trnF, trnK, trnS-trnG, and rpoB-trnC). We also test the hypothesis of a diversification rate shift within NAm Psoraleeae using topological and temporal methods. We investigate the impact of climate change on diversification in this group by (1) testing the hypothesis that a shift from mesic to xeric habitats acted as a key innovation and (2) investigating diversification rate shifts along geologic time, discussing the impact of Quaternary climate oscillations on diversification. Results NAm Psoraleeae represents a recent, rapid radiation with several genera originating during the Pleistocene, 1 to 2 million years ago. A shift in diversification rate is supported by both methods with a 2.67-fold increase suggested around 2 million years ago followed by a 8.73-fold decrease 440,000 years ago. The hypothesis that a climate regime shift from mesic to xeric habitats drove increased diversification in affected taxa was not supported. Timing of the diversification rate increase supports the hypothesis that glaciation-induced climate changes during the Quaternary influenced diversification of the group. Nonrandom spatial diversification also exists, with greater species richness in the American Southwest. Conclusion This study outlines NAm Psoraleeae as a model example of a recent, rapid radiation. Diversification rate shifts in NAm Psoraleeae are not due to current climate regimes as represented by habitat, but instead to past global climate change resulting from Quaternary glaciations. NAm Psoraleeae diversification is a good example of how earthly dynamics including global climate change and topography work together to shape biodiversity. PMID:19091055

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna

PubMed Central

Tozer, Mark G.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

2014-01-01

Background and aims Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change. Methods The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972–2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset. Key Results A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (<20 %). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33–55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Conclusions Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment. PMID:25015069

Climate change and health in Bangladesh: a baseline cross-sectional survey

PubMed Central

Kabir, Md Iqbal; Rahman, Md Bayzidur; Smith, Wayne; Lusha, Mirza Afreen Fatima; Milton, Abul Hasnat

2016-01-01

Background Bangladesh is facing the unavoidable challenge of adaptation to climate change. However, very little is known in relation to climate change and health. This article provides information on potential climate change impact on health, magnitude of climate-sensitive diseases, and baseline scenarios of health systems to climate variability and change. Design A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling framework was conducted in 2012 among 6,720 households of 224 rural villages in seven vulnerable districts of Bangladesh. Information was obtained from head of the households using a pretested, interviewer-administered, structured questionnaire. A total of 6,720 individuals participated in the study with written, informed consent. Results The majority of the respondents were from the low-income vulnerable group (60% farmers or day labourers) with an average of 30 years’ stay in their locality. Most of them (96%) had faced extreme weather events, 45% of people had become homeless and displaced for a mean duration of 38 days in the past 10 years. Almost all of the respondents (97.8%) believe that health care expenditure increased after the extreme weather events. Mean annual total health care expenditure was 6,555 Bangladeshi Taka (BDT) (1 USD=77 BDT in 2015) and exclusively out of pocket of the respondents. Incidence of dengue was 1.29 (95% CI 0.65–2.56) and malaria 13.86 (95% CI 6.00–32.01) per 1,000 adult population for 12 months preceding the data collection. Incidence of diarrhoea and pneumonia among under-five children of the households for the preceding month was 10.3% (95% CI 9.16–11.66) and 7.3% (95% CI 6.35–8.46), respectively. Conclusions The findings of this survey indicate that climate change has a potential adverse impact on human health in Bangladesh. The magnitude of malaria, dengue, childhood diarrhoea, and pneumonia was high among the vulnerable communities. Community-based adaptation strategy for health could be beneficial to minimise climate change attributed health burden of Bangladesh. PMID:27049012

Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Botí, M. A.; Foster, G. L.; Chalk, T. B.; Rohling, E. J.; Sexton, P. F.; Lunt, D. J.; Pancost, R. D.; Badger, M. P. S.; Schmidt, D. N.

2015-02-01

Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

Modelling vehicle colour and pattern for multiple deployment environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liggins, Eric; Moorhead, Ian R.; Pearce, Daniel A.; Baker, Christopher J.; Serle, William P.

2016-10-01

Military land platforms are often deployed around the world in very different climate zones. Procuring vehicles in a large range of camouflage patterns and colour schemes is expensive and may limit the environments in which they can be effectively used. As such this paper reports a modelling approach for use in the optimisation and selection of a colour palette, to support operations in diverse environments and terrains. Three different techniques were considered based upon the differences between vehicle and background in L*a*b* colour space, to predict the optimum (initially single) colour to reduce the vehicle signature in the visible band. Calibrated digital imagery was used as backgrounds and a number of scenes were sampled. The three approaches used, and reported here are a) background averaging behind the vehicle b) background averaging in the area surrounding the vehicle and c) use of the spatial extension to CIE L*a*b*; S-CIELAB (Zhang and Wandell, Society for Information Display Symposium Technical Digest, vol. 27, pp. 731-734, 1996). Results are compared with natural scene colour statistics. The models used showed good agreement in the colour predictions for individual and multiple terrains or climate zones. A further development of the technique examines the effect of different patterns and colour combinations on the S-CIELAB spatial colour difference metric, when scaled for appropriate viewing ranges.

Ethical concerns and contributions in response to climate change and the links to well-being: a study of university students in The Netherlands.

PubMed

El Zoghbi, Mona Betour; El Ansari, Walid

2014-06-01

This study explored the concerns and contributions of university students in response to the ethical dimensions of climate change, and the implications for their well-being. The study focused on university students as leaders of future society while facing complex environmental and socio-economic challenges. A total of 8 focus groups (FG) were conducted (66 participants from over 10 different universities across The Netherlands). In addition, 9 in-depth interviews with Dutch university students from different academic backgrounds, and 16 interviews with Dutch key informants in the environment, youth and public health fields were undertaken. The first author also attended (as participant-observer) three major events themed around youth and environmental issues across different regions in The Netherlands. University students in the Netherlands are mostly concerned about the increasing social and economic inequalities between the global North and South, and the implications for impoverished and uneducated communities. Participants raised concerns over the transfer of materialistic value systems and unsustainable practices from developed to developing countries. The participants' main contributions in response to climate change were largely driven by feelings of guilt and responsibility, an ecological worldview, and desire to play a positive role in society. Establishing formal youth platforms across academic, civic and political institutions could provide legitimate and empowering opportunities for university students to participate in consultations and debates of future environmental policies and development strategies. Such platforms could enhance the agency and well-being of university students for addressing their concerns over existing climate inequalities and other ethical dilemmas.

Reduced connection between the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Southern Hemisphere Circulation on interannual timescales under intense global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tianlei; Guo, Pinwen; Cheng, Jun; Hu, Aixue; Lin, Pengfei; Yu, Yongqiang

2018-03-01

Previous studies show a close relationship between the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation on interannual timescales. In this study, we investigate whether this close relationship will change under intensive greenhouse-gas effect by analyzing simulations under two different climate background states: preindustrial era and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 stabilization from the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4). Results show a significantly reduced relationship under stabilized RCP8.5 climate state, such a less correlated EASM with the sea level pressure in the southern Indian Ocean and the SH branch of local Hadley Cell. Further analysis suggests that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to this warming leads to a less vigorous northward meridional heat transport, a decreased intertropical temperature contrast in boreal summer, which produces a weaker cross-equatorial Hadley Cell in the monsoonal region and a reduced Interhemispheric Mass Exchange (IME). Since the monsoonal IME acts as a bridge connecting EASM and SH circulation, the reduced IME weakens this connection. By performing freshwater hosing experiment using the Flexible Global Ocean—Atmosphere—Land System model, Grid-point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), we show a weakened relationship between the EASM and SH circulation as in CCSM4 when AMOC collapses. Our results suggest that a substantially weakened AMOC is the main driver leading to the EASM, which is less affected by SH circulation in the future warmer climate.

Collegial Support and Community with Trust in Swedish and Danish dentistry.

PubMed

Berthelsen, Hanne; Söderfeldt, Björn; Harris, Rebecca; Pejtersen, Jan Hyld; Bergström, Kamilla; Hjalmers, Karin; Ordell, Sven

2011-11-01

The aim of the study was to better understand the associations between work factors and professional support among dentists (Collegial Support) as well as the sense of being part of a work community characterized by trust (Community with Trust). A questionnaire was sent to 1835 general dental practitioners, randomly selected from the members of dental associations in Sweden and Denmark in 2008. The response rate was 68%. Two models with the outcome variables Collegial Support and being part of a Community with Trust were built using multiple hierarchical linear regression. Demographic background factors, work factors, managerial factors and factors relating to objectives and to values characterizing climate of the practice were all introduced as blocks into the models. A different pattern emerged for Collegial Support than for Community with Trust, indicating different underlying mechanisms. The main results were: (I) Female, married/cohabitant, collegial network outside the practice, common breaks, formalized managerial education of leader and a climate characterized by professional values, which were positively associated with Collegial Support, while number of years as a dentist and being managerially responsible were negatively associated. (II) Common breaks, decision authority and a climate characterized by professional values were positively associated with Community with Trust. A professionally-oriented practice climate and having common breaks at work were strongly associated with both outcome variables. The study underlined the importance of managing dentistry in a way which respects the professional ethos of dentists.

Responses of switchgrass to precipitation changes: Nonlinear and asymmetric?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods: Climate changes, including chronic changes in precipitation amounts, will influence plant physiology, biomass and productivity, and soil respiration. However, such precipitation effects on switchgrass, a major bioenergy crop, have not been well investigated. Two preci...

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. PMID:22938568

Scalariform-to-simple transition in vessel perforation plates triggered by differences in climate during the evolution of Adoxaceae

PubMed Central

Lens, Frederic; Vos, Rutger A.; Charrier, Guillaume; van der Niet, Timo; Merckx, Vincent; Baas, Pieter; Aguirre Gutierrez, Jesus; Jacobs, Bart; Chacon Dória, Larissa; Smets, Erik; Delzon, Sylvain; Janssens, Steven B.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Angiosperms with simple vessel perforations have evolved many times independently of species having scalariform perforations, but detailed studies to understand why these transitions in wood evolution have happened are lacking. We focus on the striking difference in wood anatomy between two closely related genera of Adoxaceae, Viburnum and Sambucus, and link the anatomical divergence with climatic and physiological insights. Methods After performing wood anatomical observations, we used a molecular phylogenetic framework to estimate divergence times for 127 Adoxaceae species. The conditions under which the genera diversified were estimated using ancestral area reconstruction and optimization of ancestral climates, and xylem-specific conductivity measurements were performed. Key Results Viburnum, characterized by scalariform vessel perforations (ancestral), diversified earlier than Sambucus, having simple perforations (derived). Ancestral climate reconstruction analyses point to cold temperate preference for Viburnum and warm temperate for Sambucus. This is reflected in the xylem-specific conductivity rates of the co-occurring species investigated, showing that Viburnum lantana has rates much lower than Sambucus nigra. Conclusions The lack of selective pressure for high conductive efficiency during early diversification of Viburnum and the potentially adaptive value of scalariform perforations in frost-prone cold temperate climates have led to retention of the ancestral vessel perforation type, while higher temperatures during early diversification of Sambucus have triggered the evolution of simple vessel perforations, allowing more efficient long-distance water transport. PMID:27498812

Creative Change: Art, Music, and Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlberg, R. A.; Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2017-12-01

As part of ongoing climate science education initiatives, the Science Museum of Virginia hosted Creative Change in March 2017. The event featured multidisciplinary programming created by scientists, artists, and students reacting to and interpreting climate change and resiliency through a variety of artistic mediums and informal science education. Creative Change was developed in consideration of studies conducted at Columbia University that indicate traditional educational approaches, which rely heavily on scientific information and data literacy, fail to engage and inspire action in a majority of people. Our informal science education programming developed for Creative Change, by contrast, is inclusive to all ages and backgrounds, integrating scientific data and an artistic human touch. Our goal was to increase public awareness of climate change and resiliency through the humanities in support of the Museum's mission to inspire Virginians to enrich their lives through science. Visitors were invited to attend Coral Reef Fever, a dance performance of coral bleaching; high school and university art exhibitions; climate data performed by a string quartet; poetry, rap, and theater performances; and a panel discussion by artists and scientists on communicating science through the arts and humanities. Based on 26 post- event survey results, we found as a result that visitors enjoyed the event (mean of 9.58 out of 10), learned new information (9.07), and strongly agreed that the arts and humanities should be used more in communicating science concepts (9.77). Funded in part by Bond Bradley Endowment and NOAA ELG Award #NA15SEC0080009.

Perception of climate change in patients with chronic lung disease

PubMed Central

Götschke, Jeremias; Mertsch, Pontus; Bischof, Michael; Kneidinger, Nikolaus; Matthes, Sandhya; Renner, Ellen D.; Schultz, Konrad; Traidl-Hoffmann, Claudia; Duchna, Hans-Werner; Behr, Jürgen; Schmude, Jürgen; Huber, Rudolf M.

2017-01-01

Background Climate change affects human health. The respective consequences are predicted to increase in the future. Patients with chronic lung disease are particularly vulnerable to the involved environmental alterations. However, their subjective perception and reactions to these alterations remain unknown. Methods In this pilot study, we surveyed 172 adult patients who underwent pulmonary rehabilitation and 832 adult tourists without lung disease in the alpine region about their perception of being affected by climate change and their potential reaction to specific consequences. The patients’ survey also contained the COPD Assessment Test (CAT) to rate the severity of symptoms. Results Most of the patients stated asthma (73.8%), COPD (9.3%) or both (11.0%) as underlying disease while 5.8% suffered from other chronic lung diseases. Patients and tourists feel equally affected by current climate change in general, while allergic subjects in both groups feel significantly more affected (p = 0.04). The severity of symptoms assessed by CAT correlates with the degree of feeling affected (p<0.01). The main disturbing consequences for patients are decreased air quality, increasing numbers of ticks and mosquitos and a rising risk for allergy and extreme weather events such as thunderstroms, while tourists are less disturbed by these factors. Increasing number of heat-days is of little concern to both groups. Conclusion Overall patients are more sensitive to health-related consequences of climate change. Yet, the hazard of heat-days seems underestimated and awareness should be raised. PMID:29045479

Individual Variability in Reproductive Success Determines Winners and Losers under Ocean Acidification: A Case Study with Sea Urchins

PubMed Central

Schlegel, Peter; Havenhand, Jon N.; Gillings, Michael R.; Williamson, Jane E.

2012-01-01

Background Climate change will lead to intense selection on many organisms, particularly during susceptible early life stages. To date, most studies on the likely biotic effects of climate change have focused on the mean responses of pooled groups of animals. Consequently, the extent to which inter-individual variation mediates different selection responses has not been tested. Investigating this variation is important, since some individuals may be preadapted to future climate scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the effect of CO2-induced pH changes (“ocean acidification”) in sperm swimming behaviour on the fertilization success of the Australasian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma, focusing on the responses of separate individuals and pairs. Acidification significantly decreased the proportion of motile sperm but had no effect on sperm swimming speed. Subsequent fertilization experiments showed strong inter-individual variation in responses to ocean acidification, ranging from a 44% decrease to a 14% increase in fertilization success. This was partly explained by the significant relationship between decreases in percent sperm motility and fertilization success at ΔpH = 0.3, but not at ΔpH = 0.5. Conclusions and Significance The effects of ocean acidification on reproductive success varied markedly between individuals. Our results suggest that some individuals will exhibit enhanced fertilization success in acidified oceans, supporting the concept of ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ of climate change at an individual level. If these differences are heritable it is likely that ocean acidification will lead to selection against susceptible phenotypes as well as to rapid fixation of alleles that allow reproduction under more acidic conditions. This selection may ameliorate the biotic effects of climate change if taxa have sufficient extant genetic variation upon which selection can act. PMID:23300876

A universal harm-minimisation approach to preventing psychostimulant and cannabis use in adolescents: a cluster randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Psychostimulants and cannabis are two of the three most commonly used illicit drugs by young Australians. As such, it is important to deliver prevention for these substances to prevent their misuse and to reduce associated harms. The present study aims to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the universal computer-based Climate Schools: Psychostimulant and Cannabis Module. Methods A cluster randomised controlled trial was conducted with 1734 Year 10 students (mean age = 15.44 years; SD = 0.41) from 21 secondary schools in Australia. Schools were randomised to receive either the six lesson computer-based Climate Schools program or their usual health classes, including drug education, over the year. Results The Climate Schools program was shown to increase knowledge of cannabis and psychostimulants and decrease pro-drug attitudes. In the short-term the program was effective in subduing the uptake and plateauing the frequency of ecstasy use, however there were no changes in meth/amphetamine use. In addition, females who received the program used cannabis significantly less frequently than students who received drug education as usual. Finally, the Climate Schools program was related to decreasing students’ intentions to use meth/amphetamine and ecstasy in the future, however these effects did not last over time. Conclusions These findings provide support for the use of a harm-minimisation approach and computer technology as an innovative platform for the delivery of prevention education for illicit drugs in schools. The current study indicated that teachers and students enjoyed the program and that it is feasible to extend the successful Climate Schools model to the prevention of other drugs, namely cannabis and psychostimulants. Trial registration Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12613000492752. PMID:24943829

Plant establishment on unirrigated green roof modules in a subtropical climate

PubMed Central

Dvorak, Bruce D.; Volder, Astrid

2012-01-01

Background and aims The application of green roof technology has become more common in the central, northwestern and eastern USA, and is now being employed across the southern USA as well. However, there is little research in the literature that evaluated plant survival on unirrigated green roofs in subtropical climates that experience frequent drought and heat stress. Here, we summarize the results of a study of plant establishment on a modular green roof in south-central Texas. Methodology Fifteen plant species were field tested in 11.4-cm-deep green roof modules on a four-storey building in College Station, Texas, with irrigation limited to the first several weeks of establishment. Climate data, plant growth and species survival were measured over three growing seasons. Principal results Four species survived growing seasons without any losses: Graptopetalum paraguayense, Malephora lutea, Manfreda maculosa and Phemeranthus calycinus. Six species experienced varying levels of mortality: Bulbine frutescens, Delosperma cooperi, Lampranthus spectabilis, Sedum kamtschaticum, Sedum mexicanum and Nassella tenuissima. Five species had no survivors: Dichondra argentea, Stemodia lanata, Myoporum parvifolium, Sedum moranense and Sedum tetractinum. Conclusions The establishment and survival of several plant species without any mortality suggests that irrigation limited to the first few weeks after planting may be an effective approach on green roofs in spite of the more challenging climatic conditions in the southern USA. Since the climate in south-central Texas had been consistently drier and warmer than normal during the study period, longer-term research on these species is recommended to expand knowledge of establishment requirements for these species under a wider range of conditions, including wetter than normal years.

The Role of Cultural Diversity Climate in Recruitment, Promotion, and Retention of Faculty in Academic Medicine

PubMed Central

Price, Eboni G; Gozu, Aysegul; Kern, David E; Powe, Neil R; Wand, Gary S; Golden, Sherita; Cooper, Lisa A

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND Ethnic diversity among physicians may be linked to improved access and quality of care for minorities. Academic medical institutions are challenged to increase representation of ethnic minorities among health professionals. OBJECTIVES To explore the perceptions of physician faculty regarding the following: (1) the institution's cultural diversity climate and (2) facilitators and barriers to success and professional satisfaction in academic medicine within this context. DESIGN Qualitative study using focus groups and semi-structured interviews. PARTICIPANTS Nontenured physicians in the tenure track at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. APPROACH Focus groups and interviews were audio-taped, transcribed verbatim, and reviewed for thematic content in a 3-stage independent review/adjudication process. RESULTS Study participants included 29 faculty representing 9 clinical departments, 4 career tracks, and 4 ethnic groups. In defining cultural diversity, faculty noted visible (race/ethnicity, foreign-born status, gender) and invisible (religion, sexual orientation) dimensions. They believe visible dimensions provoke bias and cumulative advantages or disadvantages in the workplace. Minority and foreign-born faculty report ethnicity-based disparities in recruitment and subtle manifestations of bias in the promotion process. Minority and majority faculty agree that ethnic differences in prior educational opportunities lead to disparities in exposure to career options, and qualifications for and subsequent recruitment to training programs and faculty positions. Minority faculty also describe structural barriers (poor retention efforts, lack of mentorship) that hinder their success and professional satisfaction after recruitment. To effectively manage the diversity climate, our faculty recommended 4 strategies for improving the psychological climate and structural diversity of the institution. CONCLUSIONS Soliciting input from faculty provides tangible ideas regarding interventions to improve an institution's diversity climate. PMID:16050848

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Change in the Magnitude and Mechanisms of Global Temperature Variability with Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, P. T.; Ming, Y.; Li, W.; Hill, S. A.

2017-12-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

KSC-98pc1628

NASA Image and Video Library

1998-11-10

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. -- In the Spacecraft Assembly and Encapsulation Facility -2 (SAEF-2), Satish Krishnan (right) from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory places a Mars microprobe on a workstand. In the background, Chris Voorhees watches. Two microprobes will hitchhike on the Mars Polar Lander, scheduled to be launched Jan. 3, 1999, aboard a Delta II rocket. The solar-powered spacecraft is designed to touch down on the Martian surface near the northern-most boundary of the south pole in order to study the water cycle there. The lander also will help scientists learn more about climate change and current resources on Mars, studying such things as frost, dust, water vapor and condensates in the Martian atmosphere. The Mars microprobes, called Deep Space 2, are part of NASA's New Millennium Program. They will complement the climate-related scientific focus of the lander by demonstrating an advanced, rugged microlaser system for detecting subsurface water. Such data on polar subsurface water, in the form of ice, should help put limits on scientific projections for the global abundance of water on Mars

Options for accounting carbon sequestration in German forests

PubMed Central

Krug, Joachim; Koehl, Michael; Riedel, Thomas; Bormann, Kristin; Rueter, Sebastian; Elsasser, Peter

2009-01-01

Background The Accra climate change talks held from 21–27 August 2008 in Accra, Ghana, were part of an ongoing series of meetings leading up to the Copenhagen meeting in December 2009. During the meeting a set of options for accounting carbon sequestration in forestry on a post-2012 framework was presented. The options include gross-net and net-net accounting and approaches for establishing baselines. Results This article demonstrates the embedded consequences of Accra Accounting Options for the case study of German national GHG accounting. It presents the most current assessment of sequestration rates by forest management for the period 1990 – 2007, provides an outlook of future emissions and removals (up to the year 2042) as related to three different management scenarios, and shows that implementation of some Accra options may reverse sources to sinks, or sinks to sources. Conclusion The results of the study highlight the importance of elaborating an accounting system that would prioritize the climate convention goals, not national preferences. PMID:19650896

Air-surface exchange measurements of gaseous elemental mercury over naturally enriched and background terrestrial landscapes in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, G. C.; Howard, D. A.

2012-10-01

This paper presents the first gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) air-surface exchange measurements obtained over naturally enriched and background (< 0.1 μg g-1 Hg) terrestrial landscapes in Australia. Two pilot field studies were carried out during the Australian autumn and winter periods at a copper-gold-cobalt-arsenic-mercury mineral field near Pulganbar, NSW. GEM fluxes using a dynamic flux chamber approach were measured, along with controlling environmental parameters over three naturally enriched and three background substrates. The enriched sites results showed net emission to the atmosphere and a strong correlation between flux and substrate Hg concentration, with average fluxes ranging from 14 ± 1 ng m-2 h-1 to 113 ± 6 ng m-2 h-1. Measurements at background sites showed both emission and deposition. The average Hg flux from all background sites showed an overall net emission of 0.36 ± 0.06 ng m-2 h-1. Fluxes show strong relationships with temperature, radiation, and substrate parameters. A compensation point of 2.48, representative of bare soils was determined. Comparison of the Australian data to North American data confirmed the need for Australian specific mercury air-surface exchange data representative of Australia's unique climatic conditions, vegetation types, land use patterns, and soils.

Geographical ecology of the palms (Arecaceae): determinants of diversity and distributions across spatial scales

PubMed Central

Eiserhardt, Wolf L.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Kissling, W. Daniel; Balslev, Henrik

2011-01-01

Background The palm family occurs in all tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Palms are of high ecological and economical importance, and display complex spatial patterns of species distributions and diversity. Scope This review summarizes empirical evidence for factors that determine palm species distributions, community composition and species richness such as the abiotic environment (climate, soil chemistry, hydrology and topography), the biotic environment (vegetation structure and species interactions) and dispersal. The importance of contemporary vs. historical impacts of these factors and the scale at which they function is discussed. Finally a hierarchical scale framework is developed to guide predictor selection for future studies. Conclusions Determinants of palm distributions, composition and richness vary with spatial scale. For species distributions, climate appears to be important at landscape and broader scales, soil, topography and vegetation at landscape and local scales, hydrology at local scales, and dispersal at all scales. For community composition, soil appears important at regional and finer scales, hydrology, topography and vegetation at landscape and local scales, and dispersal again at all scales. For species richness, climate and dispersal appear to be important at continental to global scales, soil at landscape and broader scales, and topography at landscape and finer scales. Some scale–predictor combinations have not been studied or deserve further attention, e.g. climate on regional to finer scales, and hydrology and topography on landscape and broader scales. The importance of biotic interactions – apart from general vegetation structure effects – for the geographic ecology of palms is generally underexplored. Future studies should target scale–predictor combinations and geographic domains not studied yet. To avoid biased inference, one should ideally include at least all predictors previously found important at the spatial scale of investigation. PMID:21712297

A Non-Stationary Relationship between Global Climate Phenomena and Human Plague Incidence in Madagascar

PubMed Central

Kreppel, Katharina S.; Caminade, Cyril; Telfer, Sandra; Rajerison, Minoarison; Rahalison, Lila; Morse, Andy; Baylis, Matthew

2014-01-01

Background Plague, a zoonosis caused by Yersinia pestis, is found in Asia and the Americas, but predominantly in Africa, with the island of Madagascar reporting almost one third of human cases worldwide. Plague's occurrence is affected by local climate factors which in turn are influenced by large-scale climate phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The effects of ENSO on regional climate are often enhanced or reduced by a second large-scale climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It is known that ENSO and the IOD interact as drivers of disease. Yet the impacts of these phenomena in driving plague dynamics via their effect on regional climate, and specifically contributing to the foci of transmission on Madagascar, are unknown. Here we present the first analysis of the effects of ENSO and IOD on plague in Madagascar. Methodology/principal findings We use a forty-eight year monthly time-series of reported human plague cases from 1960 to 2008. Using wavelet analysis, we show that over the last fifty years there have been complex non-stationary associations between ENSO/IOD and the dynamics of plague in Madagascar. We demonstrate that ENSO and IOD influence temperature in Madagascar and that temperature and plague cycles are associated. The effects on plague appear to be mediated more by temperature, but precipitation also undoubtedly influences plague in Madagascar. Our results confirm a relationship between plague anomalies and an increase in the intensity of ENSO events and precipitation. Conclusions/significance This work widens the understanding of how climate factors acting over different temporal scales can combine to drive local disease dynamics. Given the association of increasing ENSO strength and plague anomalies in Madagascar it may in future be possible to forecast plague outbreaks in Madagascar. The study gives insight into the complex and changing relationship between climate factors and plague in Madagascar. PMID:25299064

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change

PubMed Central

Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). Methods: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. Findings: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Interpretation: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669 PMID:28731409

Climate and edaphic controllers influence rhizosphere community assembly for a wild annual grass

DOE PAGES

Nuccio, Erin E.; Anderson-Furgeson, James; Estera, Katerina Y.; ...

2016-05-09

The interface between roots and soil, known as the rhizosphere, is a dynamic habitat in the soil ecosystem. Unraveling the factors that control rhizosphere community assembly is a key starting point for understanding the diversity of plant-microbial interactions that occur in soil. The goals of this study were to determine how environmental factors shape rhizosphere microbial communities, such as local soil characteristics and the regional climate, and to determine the relative influence of the rhizosphere on microbial community assembly compared to the pressures imposed by the local and regional environment. We identified the bacteria present in the soil immediately adjacentmore » to the roots of wild oat (Avena spp.) in three California grasslands using deep Illumina 16S sequencing. Rhizosphere communities were more similar to each other than to the surrounding soil communities from which they were derived, despite the fact that the grasslands studied were separated by hundreds of kilometers. The rhizosphere was the dominant factor structuring bacterial community composition (38% variance explained), and was comparable in magnitude to the combined local and regional effects (22% and 21%, respectively). Rhizosphere communities were most influenced by factors related to the regional climate (soil moisture and temperature), while background soil communities were more influenced by soil characteristics (pH, CEC, exchangeable cations, clay content). The Avena core microbiome was strongly phylogenetically clustered according to the metrics NRI and NTI, which indicates that selective processes likely shaped these communities. Furthermore, 17% of these taxa were not detectable in the background soil, even with a robust sequencing depth of approximately 70,000 sequences per sample. In conclusion, these results support the hypothesis that roots select less abundant or possibly rare populations in the soil microbial community, which appear to be lineages of bacteria that have made a physiological tradeoff for rhizosphere competence at the expense of their competitiveness in non-rhizosphere soil.« less

Climate and edaphic controllers influence rhizosphere community assembly for a wild annual grass

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nuccio, Erin E.; Anderson-Furgeson, James; Estera, Katerina Y.

The interface between roots and soil, known as the rhizosphere, is a dynamic habitat in the soil ecosystem. Unraveling the factors that control rhizosphere community assembly is a key starting point for understanding the diversity of plant-microbial interactions that occur in soil. The goals of this study were to determine how environmental factors shape rhizosphere microbial communities, such as local soil characteristics and the regional climate, and to determine the relative influence of the rhizosphere on microbial community assembly compared to the pressures imposed by the local and regional environment. We identified the bacteria present in the soil immediately adjacentmore » to the roots of wild oat (Avena spp.) in three California grasslands using deep Illumina 16S sequencing. Rhizosphere communities were more similar to each other than to the surrounding soil communities from which they were derived, despite the fact that the grasslands studied were separated by hundreds of kilometers. The rhizosphere was the dominant factor structuring bacterial community composition (38% variance explained), and was comparable in magnitude to the combined local and regional effects (22% and 21%, respectively). Rhizosphere communities were most influenced by factors related to the regional climate (soil moisture and temperature), while background soil communities were more influenced by soil characteristics (pH, CEC, exchangeable cations, clay content). The Avena core microbiome was strongly phylogenetically clustered according to the metrics NRI and NTI, which indicates that selective processes likely shaped these communities. Furthermore, 17% of these taxa were not detectable in the background soil, even with a robust sequencing depth of approximately 70,000 sequences per sample. In conclusion, these results support the hypothesis that roots select less abundant or possibly rare populations in the soil microbial community, which appear to be lineages of bacteria that have made a physiological tradeoff for rhizosphere competence at the expense of their competitiveness in non-rhizosphere soil.« less

Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069

Preparing for Climate Change: A Perspective from Local Public Health Officers in California

PubMed Central

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-01-01

Background The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. Methods This article presents the results of a survey of California’s local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers’ concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. Results The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy. PMID:19440502

Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

2011-12-01

Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

PubMed Central

Barnett, Jon

2012-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

Knowledge Discovery from Climate Data using Graph-Based Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinhaeuser, K.

2012-04-01

Climate and Earth sciences have recently experienced a rapid transformation from a historically data-poor to a data-rich environment, thus bringing them into the realm of the Fourth Paradigm of scientific discovery - a term coined by the late Jim Gray (Hey et al. 2009), the other three being theory, experimentation and computer simulation. In particular, climate-related observations from remote sensors on satellites and weather radars, in situ sensors and sensor networks, as well as outputs of climate or Earth system models from large-scale simulations, provide terabytes of spatio-temporal data. These massive and information-rich datasets offer a significant opportunity for advancing climate science and our understanding of the global climate system, yet current analysis techniques are not able to fully realize their potential benefits. We describe a class of computational approaches, specifically from the data mining and machine learning domains, which may be novel to the climate science domain and can assist in the analysis process. Computer scientists have developed spatial and spatio-temporal analysis techniques for a number of years now, and many of them may be applicable and/or adaptable to problems in climate science. We describe a large-scale, NSF-funded project aimed at addressing climate science question using computational analysis methods; team members include computer scientists, statisticians, and climate scientists from various backgrounds. One of the major thrusts is in the development of graph-based methods, and several illustrative examples of recent work in this area will be presented.

Molecular data and ecological niche modeling reveal population dynamics of widespread shrub Forsythia suspensa (Oleaceae) in China’s warm-temperate zone in response to climate change during the Pleistocene

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite its high number of endemic deciduous broad-leaved species in China’s warm-temperate zone, far less attention has been paid to phylogeographic studies in this region. In this work, the phylogeographic history of Forsythia suspensa endemic to China’s warm-temperate zone was investigated to explore the effect of climate change during the Pleistocene on the distribution of this deciduous broad-leaved species in China. Results The cpDNA data revealed seven phylogeographical groups corresponding to geographical regions. By contrast, the nrDNA data supported the samples clustered into three groups, which was inconsistent with separate geographical regions supported by cpDNA data. Ecological niche modeling showed that the climatically suitable area during the cold period was larger than that during the warm period. Conclusions Both molecular data and ecological niche modeling indicated that F. suspensa expanded to nearby low-elevation plains in the glacial periods, and retreated to mountaintops during interglacial warmer stages. This study thus supported that F. suspensa persisted in situ during the glacial of the Pleistocene with enlarged distribution area, contrary to the hypothesis of long distance southward migration or large-scale range contraction. PMID:24885704

Influence of Latitude on the Prevalence of Kawasaki Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database and Review of the Literature.

PubMed

Chang, Chaw-Liang; Wong, Chih-Shung; Yang, Yi-Chen; Chiu, Nan-Chang

2018-04-25

Background: Countries at higher latitudes have higher incidence rates of Kawasaki disease (KD) than do countries at lower latitudes in the Asian and West Pacific area. However, the precise influence of latitude on KD incidence rates requires further clarification. Methods: We searched the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 to retrieve patients’ medical records from 1996 to 2009. The patients with KD were categorized as living in northern, middle, and southern Taiwan; the period prevalence of KD for each area was determined. Climate variables, including temperature, sunshine duration, precipitation, and relative humidity, were collected from the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The effect of latitude on the period KD prevalence and the correlation between climate variables and KD prevalence were calculated. Results: After patients without complete data excluded, a total of 61,830 children up to 10 years old were retrieved, from which 404 patients with KD were recognized. The period prevalence of KD increased significantly with latitude ( p = 0.0004). Climate variables associated with high temperature demonstrated a connection with KD prevalence; however, this correlation was not statistically significant. Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that higher latitude is associated with a higher KD prevalence in Taiwan.

Additive negative effects of anthropogenic sedimentation and warming on the survival of coral recruits.

PubMed

Fourney, Francesca; Figueiredo, Joana

2017-09-28

Corals worldwide are facing population declines due to global climate change and local anthropogenic impacts. Global climate change effects are hard to tackle but recent studies show that some coral species can better handle climate change stress when provided with additional energy resources. The local stressor that most undermines energy acquisition is sedimentation because it impedes coral heterotrophic feeding and their ability to photosynthesize. To investigate if reducing local sedimentation will enable corals to better endure ocean warming, we quantitatively assessed the combined effects of increased temperature and sedimentation (concentration and turbidity) on the survival of coral recruits of the species, Porites astreoides. We used sediment from a reef and a boat basin to mimic natural sediment (coarse) and anthropogenic (fine) sediment (common in dredging), respectively. Natural sediment did not negatively impact coral survival, but anthropogenic sediment did. We found that the capacity of coral recruits to survive under warmer temperatures is less compromised when anthropogenic sedimentation is maintained at the lowest level (30 mg.cm -2 ). Our study suggests that a reduction of US-EPA allowable turbidity from 29 Nephelometric Turbidity Units (NTU) above background to less than 7 NTU near coral reefs would facilitate coral recruit survival under current and higher temperatures.

Variations in patient safety climate and perceived quality of collaboration between professions in out-of-hours care

PubMed Central

Klemenc-Ketis, Zalika; Deilkås, Ellen Tveter; Hofoss, Dag; Bondevik, Gunnar Tschudi

2017-01-01

Purpose To get an overview of health care workers perceptions of patient safety climates and the quality of collaboration in Slovenian out-of-hours health care (OOHC) between professional groups. Materials and methods This was a cross-sectional study carried out in all (60) Slovenian OOHC clinics; 37 (61.7%) agreed to participate with 438 employees. The questionnaire consisted of the Slovenian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire – Ambulatory Version (SAQ-AV). Results The study sample consisted of 175 (70.0%) physicians, nurse practitioners, and practice nurses. Practice nurses reported the highest patient safety climate scores in all dimensions. Total mean (standard deviation) SAQ-AV score was 60.9±15.2. Scores for quality of collaboration between different professional groups were high. The highest mean scores were reported by nurse practitioners on collaboration with practice nurses (4.4±0.6). The lowest mean scores were reported by practice nurses on collaboration with nurse practitioners (3.8±0.9). Conclusion Due to large variations in Slovenian OOHC clinics with regard to how health care workers from different professional backgrounds perceive safety culture, more attention should be devoted to improving the team collaboration in OOHC. A clearer description of professional team roles should be provided. PMID:29184416

Selective transport of palynomorphs in marine turbiditic deposits: An example from the Ascension-Monterey Canyon system offshore central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGann, Mary

2017-01-01

The pollen assemblage of a deep-sea core (15G) collected at lower bathyal depths (3491 m) on a levee of Monterey Canyon off central California was investigated to gain insights into the delivery processes of terrigenous material to submarine fans and the effect this transport has on the palynological record. Thirty-two samples were obtained down the length of the core, 19 from hemipelagic and mixed mud deposits considered to be the background record, and 13 others from displaced flow deposits. The pollen record obtained from the background samples documents variations in the terrestrial flora as it adapted to changing climatic conditions over the last 19,000 cal yrs BP. A Q-mode cluster analysis defined three pollen zones: a Glacial Pollen Zone (ca. 20,000–17,000 cal yr BP), an overlying Transitional Pollen Zone (ca. 17,000–11,500 cal yr BP), and an Interglacial Pollen Zone (ca. 11,500 cal yr BP to present). Another Q-mode cluster analysis, of both the background mud and flow deposits, also defined these three pollen zones, but four of the 13 turbiditic deposits were assigned to pollen zones older than expected by their stratigraphic position. This was due to these samples containing statistically significant fewer palynomorphs than the background muds as well as being enriched (∼10–35% in some cases) in hydraulically-efficient Pinus pollen. A selective bias in the pollen assemblage, such as demonstrated here, may result in incorrect interpretations (e.g., climatic shifts or environmental perturbations) based on the floral record, indicating turbiditic deposits should be avoided in marine palynological studies. Particularly in the case of fine-grained flow deposits that may not be visually distinct, granulometry and grain size frequency distribution curves may not be enough to identify these biased deposits. Determining the relative abundance and source of displaced shallow-water benthic foraminifera entrained in these sediments serves as an excellent additional tool to do so.

Biodiversity of Aerosolized Particles (Final Report)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

air mass trajectory, humidity, and temperature? • How do they relate to particular biomes or to local conditions (soils, vegetation, and human...the climate, biome , and winds? Another objective is to obtain information on the bioaerosol backgrounds in different locations, which could aid...

Water use efficiency of net primary production in global terrestrial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Lei; Wang, Fei; Mu, Xingmin; Jin, Kai; Sun, Wenyi; Gao, Peng; Zhao, Guangju

2015-07-01

The carbon and water cycles of terrestrial ecosystems, which are strongly coupled via water use efficiency (WUE), are influenced by global climate change. To explore the relationship between the carbon and water cycles and predict the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems, it is necessary to study the WUE in global terrestrial ecosystems. In this study, the 13-year WUE (i.e., net primary production (NPP)/evapotranspiration (ET)) of global terrestrial ecosystems was calculated based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) NPP (MOD17A3) and ET (MOD16A3) products from 2000 to 2012. The results indicate that the annual average WUE decreased but not significantly, and the 13-year mean value was 868.88 mg C m -2 mm -1. The variation trend of WUE value for each pixel differed greatly across the terrestrial ecosystems. A significant variation ( P<0.05) occurred in about 18.50% of the land surface. WUE was spatially distributed from 0 to 2541 mg C m -2 mm -1, and 58.78% of the WUE values were concentrated in the interval of 600-1200 mg C m -2 mm -1. The WUE increased from north to south in Africa and Oceania and from east to west in Europe and South America. Both latitudinal and longitudinal gradients existed in Asia and North America. The following trends in the WUE of different continents and Köppen-Geiger climates were observed: Europe (1129.71 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Oceania (1084.46 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Africa (893.51 mg C m -2 mm -1)> South America (893.07 mg C m -2 mm -1)> North America (870.79 mg C m -2 mm -1)> Asia (738.98 mg C m -2 mm -1) and warm temperate climates (1094 mg C m -2 mm -1)> snowy climates (862 mg C m -2 mm -1)> arid climates (785 mg C m -2 mm -1)> equatorial climates (732 mg C m -2 mm -1)> polar climates (435 mg C m -2 mm -1). Based on the WUE value and the present or future rainfall, the maximum carbon that fixed in one region may be theoretically calculated. Also, under the background of global climatic change, WUE may be regarded as an important reference for allotting CO 2 emissions offsets and carbon transactions.

Introduction to Global Urban Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Kawano, N.; Darmanto, N. S.; Dong, Y.

2016-12-01

Urban heat island (UHI) is a widely investigated phenomenon in the field of urban climate characterized by the warming of urban areas relative to its surrounding rural environs. Being able to understand the mechanism behind the UHI formation of a city and distinguish its impact from that of global climate change is indispensable when identifying adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the lack of UHI studies many cities especially for developing countries makes it difficult to generalize the mechanism for UHI formation. Thus, there is an impending demand for studies that focus on the simultaneous analyses of UHI and its trends throughout the world. Hence, we propose a subfield of urban climatology, called "global urban climatology" (GUC), which mainly focuses on the uniform understanding of urban climates across all cities, globally. By using globally applicable methodologies to quantify and compare urban heat islands of cities with diverse backgrounds, including their geography, climate, socio-demography, and other factors, a universal understanding of the mechanisms underlying the formation of the phenomenon can be established. The implementation of GUC involves the use of globally acquired historical observation networks, gridded meteorological parameters from climate models, global geographic information system datasets; the construction of a distributed urban parameter database; and the development of techniques necessary to model the urban climate. Research under GUC can be categorized into three approaches. The collaborative approach (1st) relies on the collection of data from micro-scale experiments conducted worldwide with the aid or development of professional social networking platforms; the analytical approach (2nd) relies on the use of global weather station datasets and their corresponding objectively analysed global outputs; and the numerical approach (3rd) relies on the global estimation of high-resolution urban-representative parameters as inputs to global weather modelling. The GUC concept, the pathways through which GUC assessments can be undertaken, and current implementations are introduced. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.

Morbidity Rate Prediction of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) Using the Support Vector Machine and the Aedes aegypti Infection Rate in Similar Climates and Geographical Areas

PubMed Central

Kesorn, Kraisak; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Chompoosri, Jakkrawarn; Phumee, Atchara; Thavara, Usavadee; Tawatsin, Apiwat; Siriyasatien, Padet

2015-01-01

Background In the past few decades, several researchers have proposed highly accurate prediction models that have typically relied on climate parameters. However, climate factors can be unreliable and can lower the effectiveness of prediction when they are applied in locations where climate factors do not differ significantly. The purpose of this study was to improve a dengue surveillance system in areas with similar climate by exploiting the infection rate in the Aedes aegypti mosquito and using the support vector machine (SVM) technique for forecasting the dengue morbidity rate. Methods and Findings Areas with high incidence of dengue outbreaks in central Thailand were studied. The proposed framework consisted of the following three major parts: 1) data integration, 2) model construction, and 3) model evaluation. We discovered that the Ae. aegypti female and larvae mosquito infection rates were significantly positively associated with the morbidity rate. Thus, the increasing infection rate of female mosquitoes and larvae led to a higher number of dengue cases, and the prediction performance increased when those predictors were integrated into a predictive model. In this research, we applied the SVM with the radial basis function (RBF) kernel to forecast the high morbidity rate and take precautions to prevent the development of pervasive dengue epidemics. The experimental results showed that the introduced parameters significantly increased the prediction accuracy to 88.37% when used on the test set data, and these parameters led to the highest performance compared to state-of-the-art forecasting models. Conclusions The infection rates of the Ae. aegypti female mosquitoes and larvae improved the morbidity rate forecasting efficiency better than the climate parameters used in classical frameworks. We demonstrated that the SVM-R-based model has high generalization performance and obtained the highest prediction performance compared to classical models as measured by the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and mean absolute error (MAE). PMID:25961289

A spatiotemporal analysis of U.S. station temperature trends over the last century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capparelli, V.; Franzke, C.; Vecchio, A.; Freeman, M. P.; Watkins, N. W.; Carbone, V.

2013-07-01

This study presents a nonlinear spatiotemporal analysis of 1167 station temperature records from the United States Historical Climatology Network covering the period from 1898 through 2008. We use the empirical mode decomposition method to extract the generally nonlinear trends of each station. The statistical significance of each trend is assessed against three null models of the background climate variability, represented by stochastic processes of increasing temporal correlation length. We find strong evidence that more than 50% of all stations experienced a significant trend over the last century with respect to all three null models. A spatiotemporal analysis reveals a significant cooling trend in the South-East and significant warming trends in the rest of the contiguous U.S. It also shows that the warming trend appears to have migrated equatorward. This shows the complex spatiotemporal evolution of climate change at local scales.

[Heatwaves and population die off in the Voronezh city].

PubMed

Mekhant'ev, I I; Pichuzhkina, N M; Masaĭlova, L A

2013-01-01

Climatic factor is most important condition for the formation of public health. Attention to it has increased recently against the background of global and regional climate change. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of air temperature on population die off in the Voronezh city in the period of fire-related emergencies. Assessment of cause-and-effect relationships between the air temperature and daily death cases s was performed with the help of the method of time series. Correlation analysis showed a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and population die off from all causes and from diseases of the circulatory system with a lag of 0, 1, 2, 3 days; respiratory diseases - with a lag of 3 days. With the gain in air temperature by one degree the number of deaths increases by 3%. The results were used in adopt management decisions on minimization risks and potential negative effects on human health.

Landscape genomic analysis of candidate genes for climate adaptation in a California endemic oak, Quercus lobata.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Squire, Kevin; Gugger, Paul F; Steele, Stephanie E; Levy, Eric D; Eckert, Andrew J

2016-01-01

The ability of California tree populations to survive anthropogenic climate change will be shaped by the geographic structure of adaptive genetic variation. Our goal is to test whether climate-associated candidate genes show evidence of spatially divergent selection in natural populations of valley oak, Quercus lobata, as preliminary indication of local adaptation. Using DNA from 45 individuals from 13 localities across the species' range, we sequenced portions of 40 candidate genes related to budburst/flowering, growth, osmotic stress, and temperature stress. Using 195 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we estimated genetic differentiation across populations and correlated allele frequencies with climate gradients using single-locus and multivariate models. The top 5% of FST estimates ranged from 0.25 to 0.68, yielding loci potentially under spatially divergent selection. Environmental analyses of SNP frequencies with climate gradients revealed three significantly correlated SNPs within budburst/flowering genes and two SNPs within temperature stress genes with mean annual precipitation, after controlling for multiple testing. A redundancy model showed a significant association between SNPs and climate variables and revealed a similar set of SNPs with high loadings on the first axis. In the RDA, climate accounted for 67% of the explained variation, when holding climate constant, in contrast to a putatively neutral SSR data set where climate accounted for only 33%. Population differentiation and geographic gradients of allele frequencies in climate-associated functional genes in Q. lobata provide initial evidence of adaptive genetic variation and background for predicting population response to climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture

PubMed Central

McCoy, Daniel; McManus, Margaret A.; Kotubetey, Keliʻiahonui; Kawelo, Angela Hiʻilei; Young, Charles; D’Andrea, Brandon; Ruttenberg, Kathleen C.

2017-01-01

Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in Heʻeia Fishpond, Oʻahu Island, Hawaiʻi. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situ water quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 –November 2016). We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at Heʻeia Fishpond (May and October 2009) and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2–3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009). We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawaiʻi. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming. PMID:29145446

Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture.

PubMed

McCoy, Daniel; McManus, Margaret A; Kotubetey, Keliʻiahonui; Kawelo, Angela Hiʻilei; Young, Charles; D'Andrea, Brandon; Ruttenberg, Kathleen C; Alegado, Rosanna ʻAnolani

2017-01-01

Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in He'eia Fishpond, O'ahu Island, Hawai'i. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situ water quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 -November 2016). We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at He'eia Fishpond (May and October 2009) and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2-3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009). We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawai'i. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming.

Managing the Health Effects of Temperature in Response to Climate Change: Challenges Ahead

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian G.; Xu, Zhiwei; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Turner, Lyle R.; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background: Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion. Objectives: We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public’s health from heat events and climate change. Discussion: Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified. Conclusions: The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions. PMID:23407064

Schistosoma japonicum transmission risk maps at present and under climate change in mainland China

PubMed Central

Fan, Jingyu; Peterson, A. Townsend

2017-01-01

Background The South-to-North Water Diversion (SNWD) project is designed to channel fresh water from the Yangtze River north to more industrialized parts of China. An important question is whether future climate change and dispersal via the SNWD may synergistically favor a northward expansion of species involved in hosting and transmitting schistosomiasis in China, specifically the intermediate host, Oncomelania hupensis. Methodology/ Principal findings In this study, climate spaces occupied by the four subspecies of O. hupensis (O. h. hupensis, O. h. robertsoni, O. h. guangxiensis and O. h. tangi) were estimated, and niche conservatism tested among each pair of subspecies. Fine-tuned Maxent (fMaxent) and ensemble models were used to anticipate potential distributions of O. hupensis under future climate change scenarios. We were largely unable to reject the null hypothesis that climatic niches are conserved among the four subspecies, so factors other than climate appear to account for the divergence of O. hupensis populations across mainland China. Both model approaches indicated increased suitability and range expansion in O. h. hupensis in the future; an eastward and northward shift in O. h. robertsioni and O. h. guangxiensis, respectively; and relative distributional stability in O. h. gangi. Conclusions/Significance The southern parts of the Central Route of SNWD will coincide with suitable areas for O. h. hupensis in 2050–2060; its suitable areas will also expand northward along the southern parts of the Eastern Route by 2080–2090. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis along the southern Central Route and Eastern Route of the SNWD in a future, warmer China. PMID:29040273

Sonification of Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, Katharina; Visda, Goudarzi

2013-04-01

Sonification is the acoustic analogue of data visualization and takes advantage of human perceptual and cognitive capabilities. The amount of data being processed today is steadily increasing, and both scientists and society need new ways to understand scientific data and their implications. Sonification is especially suited to the preliminary exploration of complex, dynamic, and multidimensional data sets, as can be found in climate science. In the research project SysSon (https://sysson.kug.ac.at/), we apply a systematic approach to design sonifications to climate data. In collaboration with the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (http://www.wegcenter.at/) we assessed the metaphors climate scientists use and their typical workflows, and chose data sets where sonification has high potential revealing new phenomena. This background will be used to develop an audio interface which is directly linked to the visualization interfaces for data analysis the scientists use today. The protoype will be evaluated according to its functionality, intuitivity for climate scientists, and aesthetic criteria. In the current stage of the project, conceptual links between climate science and sound have been elaborated and first sonification designs have been developed. The research is mainly carried out at the Institute of Electronic Music and Acoustics (http://iem.kug.ac.at/), which has extensive experience in interactive sonification with multidimensional data sets.

Ecological strategies in california chaparral: Interacting effects of soils, climate, and fire on specific leaf area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anacker, Brian; Rajakaruna, Nishanta; Ackerly, David; Harrison, Susan; Keeley, Jon E.; Vasey, Michael

2011-01-01

Background: High values of specific leaf area (SLA) are generally associated with high maximal growth rates in resource-rich conditions, such as mesic climates and fertile soils. However, fire may complicate this relationship since its frequency varies with both climate and soil fertility, and fire frequency selects for regeneration strategies (resprouting versus seeding) that are not independent of resource-acquisition strategies. Shared ancestry is also expected to affect the distribution of resource-use and regeneration traits.Aims: We examined climate, soil, and fire as drivers of community-level variation in a key functional trait, SLA, in chaparral in California.Methods: We quantified the phylogenetic, functional, and environmental non-independence of key traits for 87 species in 115 plots.Results: Among species, SLA was higher in resprouters than seeders, although not after phylogeny correction. Among communities, mean SLA was lower in harsh interior climates, but in these climates it was higher on more fertile soils and on more recently burned sites; in mesic coastal climates, mean SLA was uniformly high despite variation in soil fertility and fire history.Conclusions: We conclude that because important correlations exist among both species traits and environmental filters, interpreting the functional and phylogenetic structure of communities may require an understanding of complex interactive effects.

Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Screen, James A.; Deser, Clara; Smith, Doug M.; Zhang, Xiangdong; Blackport, Russell; Kushner, Paul J.; Oudar, Thomas; McCusker, Kelly E.; Sun, Lantao

2018-03-01

The decline of Arctic sea ice is an integral part of anthropogenic climate change. Sea-ice loss is already having a significant impact on Arctic communities and ecosystems. Its role as a cause of climate changes outside of the Arctic has also attracted much scientific interest. Evidence is mounting that Arctic sea-ice loss can affect weather and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The remote impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss can only be properly represented using models that simulate interactions among the ocean, sea ice, land and atmosphere. A synthesis of six such experiments with different models shows consistent hemispheric-wide atmospheric warming, strongest in the mid-to-high-latitude lower troposphere; an intensification of the wintertime Aleutian Low and, in most cases, the Siberian High; a weakening of the Icelandic Low; and a reduction in strength and southward shift of the mid-latitude westerly winds in winter. The atmospheric circulation response seems to be sensitive to the magnitude and geographic pattern of sea-ice loss and, in some cases, to the background climate state. However, it is unclear whether current-generation climate models respond too weakly to sea-ice change. We advocate for coordinated experiments that use different models and observational constraints to quantify the climate response to Arctic sea-ice loss.

Underestimation of the Tambora effects in North American taiga ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gennaretti, Fabio; Boucher, Etienne; Nicault, Antoine; Gea-Izquierdo, Guillermo; Arseneault, Dominique; Berninger, Frank; Savard, Martine M.; Bégin, Christian; Guiot, Joel

2018-03-01

The Tambora eruption (1815 AD) was one of the major eruptions of the last two millennia and has no equivalents over the last two centuries. Here, we collected an extensive network of early meteorological time series, climate simulation data and numerous, well-replicated proxy records from Eastern Canada to analyze the strength and the persistence of the Tambora impact on the regional climate and forest processes. Our results show that the Tambora impacts on the terrestrial biosphere were stronger than previously thought, and not only affected tree growth and carbon uptake for a longer period than registered in the regional climate, but also determined forest demography and structure. Increased tree mortality, four times higher than the background level, indicates that the Tambora climatic impact propagated to influence the structure of the North American taiga for several decades. We also show that the Tambora signal is more persistent in observed data (temperature, river ice dynamics, forest growth, tree mortality) than in simulated ones (climate and forest-growth simulations), indicating that our understanding of the mechanisms amplifying volcanic perturbations on climates and ecosystems is still limited, notably in the North American taiga.

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources, Perceived Risks, and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power.

PubMed

Vainio, Annukka; Paloniemi, Riikka; Varho, Vilja

2017-03-01

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO 2 emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

ANPP-precipitation relationships in multi-year drought experiments in natural ecosystems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Question/Methods Predicting the effects of a reduction in precipitations on ecosystem productivity confronts an uncertainty: the relationship between aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and precipitation differs if the focus is spatial, driven by the climatic mean annual precipi...

THE GOBAL CHANGE AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT: BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW OF INTRAMURAL WORK

EPA Science Inventory

Factors such as population growth and migration, economic expansion, land use, resource availability, climate change, and technology change impact environmental quality and human health. With populations expected to continue to grow, and with additional countries joining the ran...

@Caribbean_LCC | CARIBBEAN LANDSCAPE CONSERVATION COOPERATIVE (A2)

Science.gov Websites

Monitoring Data Ecosystem Governance Community Get involved Advisory Groups Scientific Community Practitioner ! Caribbean Agriculture, Forestry and Climate Governance Database Slide background LANDSCAPE Conservation Is Caribbean. Ecosystem Governance Discover our compendium of NGOs and coalition groups doing conservation

Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records.

PubMed

Martínez-Botí, M A; Foster, G L; Chalk, T B; Rohling, E J; Sexton, P F; Lunt, D J; Pancost, R D; Badger, M P S; Schmidt, D N

2015-02-05

Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

Seasonal Variations in Mortality, Clinical, and Laboratory Parameters in Hemodialysis Patients: A 5-Year Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Usvyat, Len A.; Carter, Mary; Thijssen, Stephan; Kooman, Jeroen P.; van der Sande, Frank M.; Zabetakis, Paul; Balter, Paul; Levin, Nathan W.; Kotanko, Peter

2012-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Mortality varies seasonally in the general population, but it is unknown whether this phenomenon is also present in hemodialysis patients with known higher background mortality and emphasis on cardiovascular causes of death. This study aimed to assess seasonal variations in mortality, in relation to clinical and laboratory variables in a large cohort of chronic hemodialysis patients over a 5-year period. Design, setting, participants, & measurements This study included 15,056 patients of 51 Renal Research Institute clinics from six states of varying climates in the United States. Seasonal differences were assessed by chi-squared tests and univariate and multivariate cosinor analyses. Results Mortality, both all-cause and cardiovascular, was significantly higher during winter compared with other seasons (14.2 deaths per 100 patient-years in winter, 13.1 in spring, 12.3 in autumn, and 11.9 in summer). The increase in mortality in winter was more pronounced in younger patients, as well as in whites and in men. Seasonal variations were similar across climatologically different regions. Seasonal variations were also observed in neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and serum calcium, potassium, and platelet values. Differences in mortality disappeared when adjusted for seasonally variable clinical parameters. Conclusions In a large cohort of dialysis patients, significant seasonal variations in overall and cardiovascular mortality were observed, which were consistent over different climatic regions. Other physiologic and laboratory parameters were also seasonally different. Results showed that mortality differences were related to seasonality of physiologic and laboratory parameters. Seasonal variations should be taken into account when designing and interpreting longitudinal studies in dialysis patients. PMID:22096041

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame - such as human health - may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. Methods U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. Results There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Conclusions Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public. PMID:20515503

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; Kabela, Erik D.; Gangrade, Sudershan; Naz, Bibi S.; Preston, Benjamin L.; Singh, Nagendra; Anantharaj, Valentine G.

2017-05-01

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms, were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserve more in-depth examination.

Vulnerability to extreme heat and climate change: is ethnicity a factor?

PubMed Central

Hansen, Alana; Bi, Linda; Saniotis, Arthur; Nitschke, Monika

2013-01-01

Background With a warming climate, it is important to identify sub-populations at risk of harm during extreme heat. Several international studies have reported that individuals from ethnic minorities are at increased risk of heat-related illness, for reasons that are not often discussed. Objective The aim of this article is to investigate the underpinning reasons as to why ethnicity may be associated with susceptibility to extreme heat, and how this may be relevant to Australia’s population. Design Drawing upon literary sources, the authors provide commentary on this important, yet poorly understood area of heat research. Results Social and economic disparities, living conditions, language barriers, and occupational exposure are among the many factors contributing to heat-susceptibility among minority ethnic groups in the United States. However, there is a knowledge gap about socio-cultural influences on vulnerability in other countries. Conclusion More research needs to be undertaken to determine the effects of heat on tourists, migrants, and refugees who are confronted with a different climatic environment. Thorough epidemiological investigations of the association between ethnicity and heat-related health outcomes are required, and this could be assisted with better reporting of nationality data in health statistics. Climate change adaptation strategies in Australia and elsewhere need to be ethnically inclusive and cognisant of an upward trend in the proportion of the population who are migrants and refugees. PMID:23899408

Effects of climate change on probable maximum precipitation: A sensitivity study over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

DOE PAGES

Rastogi, Deeksha; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-04-13

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP), defined as the largest rainfall depth that could physically occur under a series of adverse atmospheric conditions, has been an important design criterion for critical infrastructures such as dams and nuclear power plants. To understand how PMP may respond to projected future climate forcings, we used a physics-based numerical weather simulation model to estimate PMP across various durations and areas over the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) river basin in the southeastern United States. Six sets of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments driven by both reanalysis and global climate model projections, with a total of 120 storms,more » were conducted. The depth-area-duration relationship was derived for each set of WRF simulations and compared with the conventional PMP estimates. Here, our results showed that PMP driven by projected future climate forcings is higher than 1981-2010 baseline values by around 20% in the 2021-2050 near-future and 44% in the 2071-2100 far-future periods. The additional sensitivity simulations of background air temperature warming also showed an enhancement of PMP, suggesting that atmospheric warming could be one important factor controlling the increase in PMP. In light of the projected increase in precipitation extremes under a warming environment, the reasonableness and role of PMP deserves more in-depth examination.« less

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices

PubMed Central

Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

2016-01-01

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents’ attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals’ demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several “upstream” climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

PubMed

Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

2016-01-19

Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies.

Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

1998-01-01

The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

The Aysen Glacier Trail (AGT): Fostering leadership and personal growth towards understanding our place in the environment through experiential learning and scientific inquiry in northern Patagonia, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sincavage, R.; Chambers, F. B.; Leidich, J.

2017-12-01

The Colonia Glacier, a low elevation mid-latitude glacier, drains the lee side of the central division of the Northern Patagonian Ice Field (NPI). As such, it serves as a microcosm of conditions on the NPI as a whole. Glaciers of this type have experienced extreme variability in Holocene thickness and extent, making them excellent indicators of local and regional climate conditions. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) originating in the remote Cachet Basin, dammed by the Colonia Glacier, have increased in frequency from once every 10 years to 3 times annually since 2008. These flood events are important in that they 1.) directly impact the livelihoods of downstream residents, 2.) may be linked to the overall health of the Colonia Glacier and, to a larger extent, the NPI, 3.) provide a natural laboratory for studying the dynamics of large flood events, and 4.) have downcut the sediments sequestered in the upper basin, revealing a rich Holocene sedimentologic and climate record. With improved access to this remote region through local partners in recent years, outstanding opportunities for scientific discovery, education, and outreach exist in one of the most beautiful and least-studied glacial regions on Earth. We propose establishing an NSF REU site here to further develop the abundant educational and research opportunities in this spectacular locale. We envision students participating under the REU will receive a broad-based background in glaciology and sedimentology prior to the field experience, and then participate in basic field research led by the PIs into understanding recent and Holocene linkages between climate change and the glacio-fluvio geomorphology of the NPI. A pilot program of 13 U.S. and Chilean students with wide-ranging backgrounds and degree levels was conducted in the winter of 2015-16. A two week backcountry trek across rocky terrain, mountain streams, active glaciers, and proglacial lakes in this seldom-visited region immersed the students in the glacial geomorphology of the region. All students identified the course as a life-changing experience, both in their increase in knowledge of the subject matters of glacial geomorphology, climate, and sedimentology/stratigraphy, as well as leadership skills, wilderness travel, and local culture.

Capture mechanism in Palaeotropical pitcher plants (Nepenthaceae) is constrained by climate

PubMed Central

Moran, Jonathan A.; Gray, Laura K.; Clarke, Charles; Chin, Lijin

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Nepenthes (Nepenthaceae, approx. 120 species) are carnivorous pitcher plants with a centre of diversity comprising the Philippines, Borneo, Sumatra and Sulawesi. Nepenthes pitchers use three main mechanisms for capturing prey: epicuticular waxes inside the pitcher; a wettable peristome (a collar-shaped structure around the opening); and viscoelastic fluid. Previous studies have provided evidence suggesting that the first mechanism may be more suited to seasonal climates, whereas the latter two might be more suited to perhumid environments. In this study, this idea was tested using climate envelope modelling. Methods A total of 94 species, comprising 1978 populations, were grouped by prey capture mechanism (large peristome, small peristome, waxy, waxless, viscoelastic, non-viscoelastic, ‘wet’ syndrome and ‘dry’ syndrome). Nineteen bioclimatic variables were used to model habitat suitability at approx. 1 km resolution for each group, using Maxent, a presence-only species distribution modelling program. Key Results Prey capture groups putatively associated with perhumid conditions (large peristome, waxless, viscoelastic and ‘wet’ syndrome) had more restricted areas of probable habitat suitability than those associated putatively with less humid conditions (small peristome, waxy, non-viscoelastic and‘dry’ syndrome). Overall, the viscoelastic group showed the most restricted area of modelled suitable habitat. Conclusions The current study is the first to demonstrate that the prey capture mechanism in a carnivorous plant is constrained by climate. Nepenthes species employing peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture are largely restricted to perhumid regions; in contrast, the wax-based mechanism allows successful capture in both perhumid and more seasonal areas. Possible reasons for the maintenance of peristome-based and viscoelastic fluid-based capture mechanisms in Nepenthes are discussed in relation to the costs and benefits associated with a given prey capture strategy. PMID:23975653

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution range of the main silicate sinker of the Southern Ocean.

PubMed

Pinkernell, Stefan; Beszteri, Bánk

2014-08-01

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Performance evaluation of Iranian cooling vest on the physiological indices in hot climatic chamber

PubMed Central

Dehghan, Habibollah; Gharehbaei, Somayeh; Mahaki, Behzad

2016-01-01

Background: Heat stress is a threat to those who work in high temperatures. The purpose in this study was an examination of the cooling ability of Iranian phase change material (PCM) cold vest in hot and dry conditions in a climatic chamber. Materials and Methods: This experimental study was implemented on 12 male students (age 23.7 ± 2.8 years, weight 66.1 ± 11.4 kg, and VO2 max 2.53 L/min) in 2013. The heat strain score index (HSSI), skin temperature and oral temperature, and heartbeat in two phases with and without cooling vest was measured during 30 min in a climatic chamber (temperature 38.8 ± 1.3°C humidity ratio 32.9 ± 2.3%) and in two activity intensity of 2.4 and 4.8 km/h speed on the treadmill, and the data differences between groups “with” and “without” vest were tested by t-test and repeated measurement. The level of significance was considered as 0.05. Results: The change in heartbeat at two activities, the oral temperature and heat strain score at 4.8 km/h, did not differ significantly between groups (with and without vest), as expected (P > 0.05). However, the change in skin temperature at two activities, oral temperature and heat strain score at 2.4 km/h, was significant between groups, as expected (P < 0.05). The average of skin temperature at 15th and 30th min during the experiment at two activities of 2.4 and 4.8 km/h was significant. Conclusion: The findings of the study indicated that using the Iranian PCM cold vest in hot and dry climate can affect the reduction of skin temperature, oral temperature, and HSSI in light activities. PMID:27500168

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006

PubMed Central

Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G

2009-01-01

Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152

Spatiotemporal variation of the association between climate dynamics and HFRS outbreaks in Eastern China during 2005-2016 and its geographic determinants

PubMed Central

Wu, Jiaping; Cazelles, Bernard; Qian, Quan; Mu, Di; Wang, Yong; Yin, Wenwu; Zhang, Wenyi

2018-01-01

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-associated zoonosis caused by hantavirus. The HFRS was initially detected in northeast China in 1931, and since 1955 it has been detected in many regions of the country. Global climate dynamics influences HFRS spread in a complex nonlinear way. The quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variation of the “HFRS infections-global climate dynamics” association at a large geographical scale and during a long time period is still lacking. Methods and findings This work is the first study of a recently completed dataset of monthly HFRS cases in Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. A methodological synthesis that involves a time-frequency technique, a composite space-time model, hotspot analysis, and machine learning is implemented in the study of (a) the association between HFRS incidence spread and climate dynamics and (b) the geographic factors impacting this association over Eastern China during the period 2005–2016. The results showed that by assimilating core and city-specific knowledge bases the synthesis was able to depict quantitatively the space-time variation of periodic climate-HFRS associations at a large geographic scale and to assess numerically the strength of this association in the area and period of interest. It was found that the HFRS infections in Eastern China has a strong association with global climate dynamics, in particular, the 12, 18 and 36 mos periods were detected as the three main synchronous periods of climate dynamics and HFRS distribution. For the 36 mos period (which is the period with the strongest association), the space-time correlation pattern of the association strength indicated strong temporal but rather weak spatial dependencies. The generated space-time maps of association strength and association hotspots provided a clear picture of the geographic variation of the association strength that often-exhibited cluster characteristics (e.g., the south part of the study area displays a strong climate-HFRS association with non-point effects, whereas the middle-north part displays a weak climate-HFRS association). Another finding of this work is the upward climate-HFRS coherency trend for the past few years (2013–2015) indicating that the climate impacts on HFRS were becoming increasingly sensitive with time. Lastly, another finding of this work is that geographic factors affect the climate-HFRS association in an interrelated manner through local climate or by means of HFRS infections. In particular, location (latitude, distance to coastline and longitude), grassland and woodland are the geographic factors exerting the most noticeable effects on the climate-HFRS association (e.g., low latitude has a strong effect, whereas distance to coastline has a wave-like effect). Conclusions The proposed synthetic quantitative approach revealed important aspects of the spatiotemporal variation of the climate-HFRS association in Eastern China during a long time period, and identified the geographic factors having a major impact on this association. Both findings could improve public health policy in an HFRS-torn country like China. Furthermore, the synthetic approach developed in this work can be used to map the space-time variation of different climate-disease associations in other parts of China and the World. PMID:29874263

The Community Climate System Model.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blackmon, Maurice; Boville, Byron; Bryan, Frank; Dickinson, Robert; Gent, Peter; Kiehl, Jeffrey; Moritz, Richard; Randall, David; Shukla, Jagadish; Solomon, Susan; Bonan, Gordon; Doney, Scott; Fung, Inez; Hack, James; Hunke, Elizabeth; Hurrell, James; Kutzbach, John; Meehl, Jerry; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Saravanan, R.; Schneider, Edwin K.; Sloan, Lisa; Spall, Michael; Taylor, Karl; Tribbia, Joseph; Washington, Warren

2001-11-01

The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been created to represent the principal components of the climate system and their interactions. Development and applications of the model are carried out by the U.S. climate research community, thus taking advantage of both wide intellectual participation and computing capabilities beyond those available to most individual U.S. institutions. This article outlines the history of the CCSM, its current capabilities, and plans for its future development and applications, with the goal of providing a summary useful to present and future users. The initial version of the CCSM included atmosphere and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model that was grafted onto the atmosphere model, a sea-ice model, and a flux coupler that facilitates information exchanges among the component models with their differing grids. This version of the model produced a successful 300-yr simulation of the current climate without artificial flux adjustments. The model was then used to perform a coupled simulation in which the atmospheric CO2 concentration increased by 1% per year. In this version of the coupled model, the ocean salinity and deep-ocean temperature slowly drifted away from observed values. A subsequent correction to the roughness length used for sea ice significantly reduced these errors. An updated version of the CCSM was used to perform three simulations of the twentieth century's climate, and several pro-jections of the climate of the twenty-first century. The CCSM's simulation of the tropical ocean circulation has been significantly improved by reducing the background vertical diffusivity and incorporating an anisotropic horizontal viscosity tensor. The meridional resolution of the ocean model was also refined near the equator. These changes have resulted in a greatly improved simulation of both the Pacific equatorial undercurrent and the surface countercurrents. The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific is also more realistic in simulations with the updated model. Scientific challenges to be addressed with future versions of the CCSM include realistic simulation of the whole atmosphere, including the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as the troposphere; simulation of changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the incorporation of an integrated chemistry model; inclusion of global, prognostic biogeochemical components for land, ocean, and atmosphere; simulations of past climates, including times of extensive continental glaciation as well as times with little or no ice; studies of natural climate variability on seasonal-to-centennial timescales; and investigations of anthropogenic climate change. In order to make such studies possible, work is under way to improve all components of the model. Plans call for a new version of the CCSM to be released in 2002. Planned studies with the CCSM will require much more computer power than is currently available.

Palynostratigraphy, palaeoclimates and palaeodepositional environments of the Miocene aged Agbada Formation in the Niger Delta, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bankole, Samson I.; Schrank, Eckart; Osterloff, Peter L.

2014-07-01

A diverse assemblage of palynomorphs dominated by terrestrially derived pollen and spores is reported from three wells penetrating the Miocene Agbada Formation. The pteridophyte and bryophyte spores which form the background assemblages in the three wells are good indicators of humid tropical climates which might have prevailed in the Niger Delta during the Miocene. The abundance and variations of climate-sensitive taxa including mangrove affiliated pollen and spore types Acrostichumsporites, Psilatricolporites crassus, Zonocostites ramonae and Graminidites annulatus representing the savannah vegetation cover indicate a complex interplay between periods of wetter and drier climates. Marine-derived dinoflagellate cysts and foraminiferal test linings are significantly present in the three wells. Taxa indicating freshwater contributions including Botryococcus spp., Chomotriletes minor, Ovoidites parvus and Pediastrum spp. are also represented numerically across the three wells. The presence of age diagnostic palynomorphs such as Crassoretitriletes vanraadshooveni, Retibrevitricolporites obodoensis, Tuberculodinium vancampoae, Zonocostites ramonae and Tuberculodinium vancampoae recovered in the three sections studied suggest a Miocene age for the investigated Agbada Formation. The proposed age is supported by the ranges of key palynomorphs in contemporaneous basins in Africa, northern South America and other parts of the World.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. PMID:20454451

Monitoring tree mortality in mature Douglas-fir forests: size and species matter

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/MethodsA regional increase in tree mortality rates associated with climate change will influence forest health and ecosystem services, including water quality and quantity. In recent decades, accelerated tree mortality has occurred in some, but not all, fores...

Discipline: A Different Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Estes, Sidney H.

The central thesis of the paper is that students in American schools come from diverse cultures and backgrounds and that appropriate instructional strategies, teaching styles, administrative behaviors and overall school climate must reflect a sensitivity to those realities. The first part of the paper examines the historical, philosophical and…

High Concentrations of Ozone Air Pollution on Mount Everest: Health Implications for Sherpa Communities and Mountaineers.

PubMed

Semple, John L; Moore, G W Kent; Koutrakis, Petros; Wolfson, Jack M; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Bonasoni, Paolo

2016-12-01

Semple, John L., G.W. Kent Moore, Petros Koutrakis, Jack M. Wolfson, Paolo Cristofanelli, and Paolo Bonasoni. High concentrations of ozone air pollution on Mount Everest: health implications for Sherpa communities and mountaineers. High Alt Med Biol. 17:365-369, 2016.-Introduction: Populations in remote mountain regions are increasingly vulnerable to multiple climate mechanisms that influence levels of air pollution. Few studies have reported on climate-sensitive health outcomes unique to high altitude ecosystems. In this study, we report on the discovery of high-surface ozone concentrations and the potential impact on health outcomes on Mount Everest and the high Himalaya. Surface ozone measurements were collected during ascending transects in the Mount Everest region of Nepal with passive nitrite-coated Ogawa filter samplers to obtain 8-hour personal exposures (2860-5364 m asl). In addition, the Nepal Climate Observatory-Pyramid, a GAW-WMO Global Station sited in the Khumbu Valley (5079 m asl), collected ozone mixing ratios with photometric gas analyzer. Surface ozone measurements increased with altitude with concentrations that exceed 100 ppb (8-hour exposure). Highest values were during the spring season and the result of diverse contributions: hemispheric background values, the descent of ozone-rich stratospheric air, and the transport of tropospheric pollutants occurring at different spatial scales. Multiple climate factors, including descending stratospheric ozone and imported anthropogenic air masses from the Indo-Gangetic Plain, contribute to ambient ozone exposure levels in the vicinity of Mount Everest that are similar to if not higher than those reported in industrialized cities.

Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns

PubMed Central

Emch, Michael; Feldacker, Caryl; Islam, M Sirajul; Ali, Mohammad

2008-01-01

Background The seasonality of cholera is described in various study areas throughout the world. However, no study examines how temporal cycles of the disease vary around the world or reviews its hypothesized causes. This paper reviews the literature on the seasonality of cholera and describes its temporal cycles by compiling and analyzing 32 years of global cholera data. This paper also provides a detailed literature review on regional patterns and environmental and climatic drivers of cholera patterns. Data, Methods, and Results Cholera data are compiled from 1974 to 2005 from the World Health Organization Weekly Epidemiological Reports, a database that includes all reported cholera cases in 140 countries. The data are analyzed to measure whether season, latitude, and their interaction are significantly associated with the country-level number of outbreaks in each of the 12 preceding months using separate negative binomial regression models for northern, southern, and combined hemispheres. Likelihood ratios tests are used to determine the model of best fit. The results suggest that cholera outbreaks demonstrate seasonal patterns in higher absolute latitudes, but closer to the equator, cholera outbreaks do not follow a clear seasonal pattern. Conclusion The findings suggest that environmental and climatic factors partially control the temporal variability of cholera. These results also indirectly contribute to the growing debate about the effects of climate change and global warming. As climate change threatens to increase global temperature, resulting rises in sea levels and temperatures may influence the temporal fluctuations of cholera, potentially increasing the frequency and duration of cholera outbreaks. PMID:18570659

Cholera and Shigellosis: Different Epidemiology but Similar Responses to Climate Variability

PubMed Central

Cash, Benjamin A.; Rodó, Xavier; Emch, Michael; Yunus, Md.; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Background Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate. Methods and Findings The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event. Conclusions The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of flooding and enteric disease risk. PMID:25229494

How does climate influence xylem morphogenesis over the growing season? Insights from long-term intra-ring anatomy in Picea abies

PubMed Central

Fonti, Patrick; von Arx, Georg; Carrer, Marco

2017-01-01

Background and Aims During the growing season, the cambium of conifer trees produces successive rows of xylem cells, the tracheids, that sequentially pass through the phases of enlargement and secondary wall thickening before dying and becoming functional. Climate variability can strongly influence the kinetics of morphogenetic processes, eventually affecting tracheid shape and size. This study investigates xylem anatomical structure in the stem of Picea abies to retrospectively infer how, in the long term, climate affects the processes of cell enlargement and wall thickening. Methods Tracheid anatomical traits related to the phases of enlargement (diameter) and wall thickening (wall thickness) were innovatively inspected at the intra-ring level on 87-year-long tree-ring series in Picea abies trees along a 900 m elevation gradient in the Italian Alps. Anatomical traits in ten successive tree-ring sectors were related to daily temperature and precipitation data using running correlations. Key Results Close to the altitudinal tree limit, low early-summer temperature negatively affected cell enlargement. At lower elevation, water availability in early summer was positively related to cell diameter. The timing of these relationships shifted forward by about 20 (high elevation) to 40 (low elevation) d from the first to the last tracheids in the ring. Cell wall thickening was affected by climate in a different period in the season. In particular, wall thickness of late-formed tracheids was strongly positively related to August–September temperature at high elevation. Conclusions Morphogenesis of tracheids sequentially formed in the growing season is influenced by climate conditions in successive periods. The distinct climate impacts on cell enlargement and wall thickening indicate that different morphogenetic mechanisms are responsible for different tracheid traits. Our approach of long-term and high-resolution analysis of xylem anatomy can support and extend short-term xylogenesis observations, and increase our understanding of climate control of tree growth and functioning under different environmental conditions. PMID:28130220

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.; Seager, R.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Cook, B.; Smerdon, J. E.; Cook, E. R.

2015-12-01

California is currently in its fourth year of a drought that has caused record-breaking rates of ground-water extraction, fallowed agricultural fields, changes to water-use policy, dangrously low lake levels, and ecological disturbances such as large wildfires and bark-beetle outbreaks. A common and important question is: to what degree can the severity of this drought in California, or of any drought globally, be blamed on human-caused global warming? Here we present the most comprehensive accounting of the natural and anthropogenic contributions to drought variability to date, and we provide an in-depth evaluation of the recent extreme drought in California. A suite of climate datasets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901-2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record-breaking in 2014, but probably not record-breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record-breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18% in 2014. Analyses will be updated through 2015 for this presentation. Although natural climate variability has often masked the background effects of warming on drought, the background effect is becoming increasingly detectable and important, particularly by increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts. The dramatic effects of the current drought in California, combined with knowledge that the background warming-driven drought trend will continue to intensify amidst a high degree of natural climate variability, highlight the critical need for a long-term outlook on drought resilience even though wet conditions are likely to soon mitigate the current drought event.

Engaging informal audiences in learning about and responding to climate change through a portfolio of innovative approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.; Orlove, B. S.; Bachrach, E.; Hamilton, L.

2017-12-01

Informal learners have many different backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives. How can informal educators effectively reach such diverse audiences, meeting people where they are with regard to climate change? The Polar Learning and Responding: PoLAR Climate Change Education Partnership, supported by NSF, employs surveys, resource development, and research to develop innovative, evidence-based approaches that engage lifelong learners. General-public surveys on climate change yield insights on the knowledge and perceptions that informal learners bring to the table. That helps guide the creation of new tools for effective communication. For example, many people are unsure what causes sea level to rise. The Polar Explorer: Sea Level app uses a data and question-based approach guiding people through interactive maps to learn about melting land ice. In addition, people also tend to believe that climate impacts will happen in the future. Polar Voices podcasts feature Arctic Indigenous communities sharing first-hand experiences with climate change. Prior knowledge can be harnessed to enhance learning. Arctic SMARTIC engages people in role-playing negotiations with others to create a marine management plan. Climate game jams provide collaborative, creative spaces where participants learn as they interact with others. In each case participants, with all their knowledge and experience, are brought into group problem-solving. Understanding whom people trust for climate-change information offers insights that help them become climate communicators. Even those who are concerned about climate often do not discuss it with family and friends (Maibach et al. 2016), yet our research shows that family and friends are second only to scientists as trusted sources of climate information (Hamilton 2016). Fun and novel educational tools such as the EcoChains card game and the EcoKoin social networking app serve as conversation starters.

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Climate and Salmon Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The Role and Usability of Seasonal Forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, Roger S.; Redmond, Kelly T.

1997-03-01

The Pacific Northwest is dependent on the vast and complex Columbia River system for power production, irrigation, navigation, flood control, recreation, municipal and industrial water supplies, and fish and wildlife habitat. In recent years Pacific salmon populations in this region, a highly valued cultural and economic resource, have declined precipitously. Since 1980, regional entities have embarked on the largest effort at ecosystem management undertaken to date in the United States, primarily aimed at balancing hydropower demands with salmon restoration activities. It has become increasingly clear that climatically driven fluctuations in the freshwater and marine environments occupied by these fish are an important influence on population variability. It is also clear that there are significant prospects of climate predictability that may prove advantageous in managing the water resources shared by the long cast of regional interests. The main thrusts of this study are 1) to describe the climate and management environments of the Columbia River basin, 2) to assess the present degree of use and benefits of available climate information, 3) to identify new roles and applications made possible by recent advances in climate forecasting, and 4) to understand, from the point of view of present and potential users in specific contexts of salmon management, what information might be needed, for what uses, and when, where, and how it should be provided. Interviews were carried out with 32 individuals in 19 organizations involved in salmon management decisions. Primary needs were in forecasting runoff volume and timing, river transit times, and stream temperatures, as much as a year or more in advance. Most respondents desired an accuracy of 75% for a seasonal forecast. Despite the significant influence of precipitation and its subsequent hydrologic impacts on the regional economy, no specific use of the present climate forecasts was uncovered. Understanding the limitations to information use forms a major component of this study. The complexity of the management environment, the lack of well-defined linkages among potential users and forecasters, and the lack of supplementary background information relating to the forecasts pose substantial barriers to future use of forecasts. Recommendations to address these problems are offered. The use of climate information and forecasts to reduce the uncertainty inherent in managing large systems for diverse needs bears significant promise.

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

PubMed Central

Wiik, Lars; Hannukkala, Asko; Andreasson, Erik; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Liljeroth, Erland; Lankinen, Åsa

2017-01-01

Background Late blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans) is a devastating potato disease that has been found to occur earlier in the season over the last decades in Fennoscandia. Up until now the reasons for this change have not been investigated. Possible explanations for this change are climate alterations, changes in potato production or changes in pathogen biology, such as increased fitness or changes in gene flow within P. infestans populations. The first incidence of late blight is of high economic importance since fungicidal applications should be typically applied two weeks before the first signs of late blight and are repeated on average once a week. Methods We use field observations of first incidence of late blight in experimental potato fields from five sites in Sweden and Finland covering a total of 30 years and investigate whether the earlier incidence of late blight can be related to the climate. Results We linked the field data to meteorological data and found that the previous assumption, used in common late blight models, that the disease only develops at relative humidity levels above 90% had to be rejected. Rather than the typically assumed threshold relationship between late blight disease development and relative humidity we found a linear relationship. Our model furthermore showed two distinct responses of late blight to climate. At the beginning of the observation time (in Sweden until the early 90s and in Finland until the 2000s) the link between climate and first incidence was very weak. However, for the remainder of the time period the link was highly significant, indicating a change in the biological properties of the pathogen which could for example be a change in the dominating reproduction mode or a physiological change in the response of the pathogen to climate. Conclusions The study shows that models used in decision support systems need to be checked and re-parametrized regularly to be able to capture changes in pathogen biology. While this study was performed with data from Fennoscandia this new pathogen biology and late blight might spread to (or already be present at) other parts of the world as well. The strong link between climate and first incidence together with the presented model offers a tool to assess late blight incidence in future climates. PMID:28558041

Background ozone in North China: trends, photochemical and transport impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Ge, B.

2011-12-01

Tropospheric ozone is one of the key greenhouse gases and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Being a strong oxidant, ozone in the surface layer has significant impacts on human and vegetation health. Long-term measurements of surface ozone are highly needed for climate change assessment and environmental policy-making. Such measurements are scarce, particularly from the background regions. Since 2004, surface ozone and some related reactive gases have been observed at Shangdianzi (SDZ), a Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station in North China. Located at the north edge of the Northern China Plain (NCP), the SDZ station is an ideal site for capturing polluted air masses from the NCP sector (southwest) and clean air masses from the background sector (northeast). This facilitates the investigation of impacts of regional transport on surface ozone. In this study, we present long-term measurements of surface ozone made at SDZ, discuss the trends of surface ozone levels in different seasons. Results about the observation-based ozone production efficiency (OPE) for the site will be presented, along with impacts from horizontal and vertical air transport.

Background ozone in North China: trends, photochemical and transport impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Lin, W.; Ge, B.

2012-04-01

Tropospheric ozone is one of the key greenhouse gases and plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry. Being a strong oxidant, ozone in the surface layer has significant impacts on human and vegetation health. Long-term measurements of surface ozone are highly needed for climate change assessment and environmental policy-making. Such measurements are scarce, particularly from the background regions. Since 2004, surface ozone and some related reactive gases have been observed at Shangdianzi (SDZ), a Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station in North China. Located at the north edge of the Northern China Plain (NCP), the SDZ station is an ideal site for capturing polluted air masses from the NCP sector (southwest) and clean air masses from the background sector (northeast). This facilitates the investigation of impacts of regional transport on surface ozone. In this study, we present long-term measurements of surface ozone made at SDZ, discuss the trends of surface ozone levels in different seasons. Results about the observation-based ozone production efficiency (OPE) for the site will be presented, along with impacts from horizontal and vertical air transport.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-01-01

Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Results Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. Conclusion A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts. PMID:15350206

Influence of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse on Antarctic surface climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Ding, Qinghua; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

2015-06-01

Climate model simulations are used to examine the impact of a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) on the surface climate of Antarctica. The lowered topography following WAIS collapse produces anomalous cyclonic circulation with increased flow of warm, maritime air toward the South Pole and cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau toward the Ross Sea and Marie Byrd Land, West Antarctica. Relative to the background climate, areas in East Antarctica that are adjacent to the WAIS warm, while substantial cooling (several °C) occurs over parts of West Antarctica. Anomalously low isotope-paleotemperature values at Mount Moulton, West Antarctica, compared with ice core records in East Antarctica, are consistent with collapse of the WAIS during the last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage 5e. More definitive evidence might be recoverable from an ice core record at Hercules Dome, East Antarctica, which would experience significant warming and positive oxygen isotope anomalies if the WAIS collapsed.

The climate sensitivity of food security in Mali - a historical perspective on availability and access dimensions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannini, A.; Krishnamurthy, P. K.; Cousin, R.; Choularton, R. J.

2011-12-01

We present results based on an analysis of a 2005 livelihood survey of ~2000 rural households in ~200 villages scattered across Mali, a sparsely populated, large land-locked country in West Africa, to elucidate the role of climate variability and change in shaping availability and access dimensions of food security. The Comprehensive Food Security Vulnerability Analysis is a recurrent survey carried out by the World Food Programme and in-country partners to map out nutritional and socio-economic status during normal (~food secure) conditions in the hope of understanding underlying cause(s) and prevent the next food security crisis. We set the spatial characterization of food security that emerges from the CFSVA against the background of a varying climate, on intra-seasonal, interannual and multi-decadal time scales: through elucidation of the influence of climate on agricultural production we arrive at an interpretation of structural and conjunctural events affecting food security. We conclude with a discussion of possible interventions to reduce vulnerability.

Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

PubMed Central

Brown, Patrick T.; Ming, Yi; Li, Wenhong; Hill, Spencer A.

2017-01-01

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modeling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual preindustrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future. PMID:29391875

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-02-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

PubMed Central

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes. PMID:29461538

Assessing the impact of planted forests on the global forest economy

Treesearch

Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

2014-01-01

Background: Planted forests are increasingly important in world forestry, natural resources conservation, and climate change policies. There is great interest in their potential for carbon sequestration and conservation of natural forests while they remain an essential source of fuelwood and industrial roundwood. Methods:...

Visiting the United States Without Leaving Your Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fugate, Roberta

1987-01-01

Ways in which teachers can interest students about learning more about the United States are presented, focusing on a planned "pretend" visit to a particular state or region. Research topics include geography, history, population, climate, chief products, and background information. State tourism agencies are listed. (CB)

A Contextual Consideration of Culture and School-Wide Positive Behavior Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sugai, George; O'Keeffe, Breda V.; Fallon, Lindsay M.

2012-01-01

Students from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds have historically experienced poor outcomes related to academic achievement, special education, school discipline and climate, and juvenile justice. Differences between home and school cultures likely contribute to these outcomes. Evidence-based practices in schools are promoted to…

Development of a Self-Observation Mastery Intervention Programme for Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Kevin; Kingston, Kieran

2008-01-01

Background: Two goal perspectives predominate in achievement settings such as physical education (PE), namely task involvement, focused on self-referenced effort and improvement, and ego involvement, focused on normative ability comparisons. A task (mastery) involving motivational climate is associated with adaptive motivational responses, whereas…

Genotypic variation in traits controlling carbon flux responses to precipitation in switchgrass

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background/Questions/Methods Fluxes of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems are key indicators of their productivity and carbon storage potential. Ecosystem fluxes will be impacted by climate change, especially changes in rainfall amount. Fluxes may also be affected by plant traits, including abovegr...

Hierarchical fameworks for distributional and life history data: Implementation of a new ecoinformatics tool

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Threats to marine and estuarine species operate over many spatial scales, from nutrient enrichment at the watershed/estuary scale to climate change at a global scale. To address this range of environmental issues, we developed a hierarchical framewor...

Detecting the global and regional effects of sulphate aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Eunice; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Highwood, Ellie

2017-04-01

Climate warming is unequivocal. In addition to carbon dioxide emission mitigation, some geoengineering ideas have been proposed to reduce future surface temperature rise. One of these proposals involves injecting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to increase the planet's albedo. Monitoring the effectiveness of sulphate aerosol injection (SAI) would require us to be able to distinguish and detect its cooling effect from the climate system's internal variability and other externally forced temperature changes. This research uses optimal fingerprinting techniques together with simulations from the GeoMIP data base to estimate the number of years of observations that would be needed to detect SAI's cooling signal in near-surface air temperature, should 5 Tg of sulphur dioxide be injected into the stratosphere per year on top of RCP4.5 from 2020-2070. The first part of the research compares the application of two detection methods that have different null hypotheses to SAI detection in global mean near-surface temperature. The first method assumes climate noise to be dominated by unforced climate variability and attempts to detect the SAI cooling signal and greenhouse gas driven warming signal in the "observations" simultaneously against this noise. The second method considers greenhouse gas driven warming to be a non-stationary background climate and attempts to detect the net cooling effect of SAI against this background. Results from this part of the research show that the conventional multi-variate detection method that has been extensively used to attribute climate warming to anthropogenic sources could also be applied for geoengineering detection. The second part of the research investigates detection of geoengineering effects on the regional scale. The globe is divided into various sub-continental scale regions and the cooling effect of SAI is looked for in the temperature time series in each of these regions using total least squares multi-variate detection. Results show that surface temperature observations would be most useful for SAI detection in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, especially in East Asia. This can be used to indicate the optimal observational network for monitoring the effectiveness of SAI in the future, should that be needed.

Using Scaling to Understand, Model and Predict Global Scale Anthropogenic and Natural Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.; del Rio Amador, L.

2014-12-01

The atmosphere is variable over twenty orders of magnitude in time (≈10-3 to 1017 s) and almost all of the variance is in the spectral "background" which we show can be divided into five scaling regimes: weather, macroweather, climate, macroclimate and megaclimate. We illustrate this with instrumental and paleo data. Based the signs of the fluctuation exponent H, we argue that while the weather is "what you get" (H>0: fluctuations increasing with scale), that it is macroweather (H<0: fluctuations decreasing with scale) - not climate - "that you expect". The conventional framework that treats the background as close to white noise and focuses on quasi-periodic variability assumes a spectrum that is in error by a factor of a quadrillion (≈ 1015). Using this scaling framework, we can quantify the natural variability, distinguish it from anthropogenic variability, test various statistical hypotheses and make stochastic climate forecasts. For example, we estimate the probability that the warming is simply a giant century long natural fluctuation is less than 1%, most likely less than 0.1% and estimate return periods for natural warming events of different strengths and durations, including the slow down ("pause") in the warming since 1998. The return period for the pause was found to be 20-50 years i.e. not very unusual; however it immediately follows a 6 year "pre-pause" warming event of almost the same magnitude with a similar return period (30 - 40 years). To improve on these unconditional estimates, we can use scaling models to exploit the long range memory of the climate process to make accurate stochastic forecasts of the climate including the pause. We illustrate stochastic forecasts on monthly and annual scale series of global and northern hemisphere surface temperatures. We obtain forecast skill nearly as high as the theoretical (scaling) predictability limits allow: for example, using hindcasts we find that at 10 year forecast horizons we can still explain ≈ 15% of the anomaly variance. These scaling hindcasts have comparable - or smaller - RMS errors than existing GCM's. We discuss how these be further improved by going beyond time series forecasts to space-time.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

Climatic influence of background and volcanic stratosphere aerosol models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deschamps, P. Y.; Herman, M.; Lenoble, J.; Tanre, D.

1982-01-01

A simple modelization of the earth atmosphere system including tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols has been derived and tested. Analytical expressions are obtained for the albedo variation due to a thin stratospheric aerosol layer. Also outlined are the physical procedures and the respective influence of the main parameters: aerosol optical thickness, single scattering albedo and asymmetry factor, and sublayer albedo. The method is applied to compute the variation of the zonal and planetary albedos due to a stratospheric layer of background H2SO4 particles and of volcanic ash.

Climate-Energy Nexus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sayler, Gary; Gentry, Randall; Zhuang, Jie

2010-07-01

The 140-page published proceedings of the workshop include individual articles and PowerPoint slides for all workshop presentations. The proceedings also contain pertinent background information on the China-US Joint Research Center, partnering organizations, and workshop goals and objectives. Overall, the workshop increased the understanding of the impacts of climate change on energy use and renewable energy production as well as the complex relationships among land use, energy production, and ecological restoration. The workshop served as an international platform for scientists and students of different research backgrounds to develop a unified perspective on energy and climate relationships. Such understanding will benefit futuremore » cooperation between China and the US in mitigating global climate change. The workshop’s agenda, which is highly interdisciplinary, explored many potential opportunities for international collaboration in ecosystem management, climate modeling, greenhouse gas emissions, and bioenergy sustainability. International research groups have been suggested in the areas of genomes and biotechnology of energy plants, sustainable management of soil and water resources, carbon sequestration, and microbial processes for ecological cycles. The project has attracted considerable attention from institutes beyond the China-US Joint Research Center partners, and several of them (such as Institute of Qing-Tibet Plateau Research, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Institute of Applied Ecology, CAS) have expressed interest in joining the partnership. In addition, the workshop played a significant role in facilitating establishment of private-public partnerships between government and private bioenergy companies (such as L.R. Shugarts and Associates, Inc.), including seed providers (Blade Energy Crops, Thousand Oaks, CA), pilot demonstration projects at coal-producing cities (e.g., Huaibei, Anhui province, China), and the development of methodology for assessment of the sustainable production of biofuels (such as life-cycle analysis, sustainability metrics, and land-use policy). Establishment of two US-China scientific research networks in the area of bioenergy and environmental science is a significant result of the workshop.« less

Climate impacts on northern Canada: regional background.

PubMed

Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Bonsal, Barrie R; Peters, Daniel L

2009-07-01

Understanding the implications of climate change on northern Canada requires a background about the size and diversity of its human and biogeophysical systems. Occupying an area of almost 40% of Canada, with one-third of this contained in Arctic islands, Canada's northern territories consist of a diversity of physical environments unrivaled around the circumpolar north. Major ecozones composed of a range of landforms, climate, vegetation, and wildlife include: Arctic, boreal and taiga cordillera; boreal and taiga plains; taiga shield; and northern and southern Arctic. Although generally characterized by a cold climate, there is an enormous range in air temperature with mean annual values being as high as -5 degrees C in the south to as low as -20 degrees C in the high Arctic islands. A similar contrast characterizes precipitation, which can be > 700 mm y(-1) in some southern alpine regions to as low as 50 mm y(-1) over islands of the high Arctic. Major freshwater resources are found within most northern ecozones, varying from large glaciers or ice caps and lakes to extensive wetlands and peat lands. Most of the North's renewable water, however, is found within its major river networks and originates in more southerly headwaters. Ice covers characterize the freshwater systems for multiple months of the year while permafrost prevails in various forms, dominating the terrestrial landscape. The marine environment, which envelops the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is dominated by seasonal to multiyear sea ice often several meters thick that plays a key role in the regional climate. Almost two-thirds of northern Canadian communities are located along coastlines with the entire population being just over 100 000. Most recent population growth has been dominated by an expansion of nonaboriginals, primarily the result of resource development and the growth of public administration. The economies of northern communities, however, remain quite mixed with traditional land-based renewable resource-subsistence activities still being a major part of many local economies.

Extreme heat and cultural and linguistic minorities in Australia: perceptions of stakeholders

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Despite acclimatisation to hot weather, many individuals in Australia are adversely affected by extreme heat each summer, placing added pressure on the health sector. In terms of public health, it is therefore important to identify vulnerable groups, particularly in the face of a warming climate. International evidence points to a disparity in heat-susceptibility in certain minority groups, although it is unknown if this occurs in Australia. With cultural diversity increasing, the aim of this study was to explore how migrants from different cultural backgrounds and climate experiences manage periods of extreme heat in Australia. Methods A qualitative study was undertaken across three Australian cities, involving interviews and focus groups with key informants including stakeholders involved in multicultural service provision and community members. Thematic analysis and a framework approach were used to analyse the data. Results Whilst migrants and refugees generally adapt well upon resettlement, there are sociocultural barriers encountered by some that hinder environmental adaptation to periods of extreme heat in Australia. These barriers include socioeconomic disadvantage and poor housing, language barriers to the access of information, isolation, health issues, cultural factors and lack of acclimatisation. Most often mentioned as being at risk were new arrivals, people in new and emerging communities, and older migrants. Conclusions With increasing diversity within populations, it is important that the health sector is aware that during periods of extreme heat there may be disparities in the adaptive capacity of minority groups, underpinned by sociocultural and language-based vulnerabilities in migrants and refugees. These factors need to be considered by policymakers when formulating and disseminating heat health strategies. PMID:24889099

The Effects of Weather Patterns on the Spatio-Temporal Distribution of SO2 over East Asia as Seen from Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunlap, L.; Li, C.; Dickerson, R. R.; Krotkov, N. A.

2015-12-01

Weather systems, particularly mid-latitude wave cyclones, have been known to play an important role in the short-term variation of near-surface air pollution. Ground measurements and model simulations have demonstrated that stagnant air and minimal precipitation associated with high pressure systems are conducive to pollutant accumulation. With the passage of a cold front, built up pollution is transported downwind of the emission sources or washed out by precipitation. This concept is important to note when studying long-term changes in spatio-temporal pollution distribution, but has not been studied in detail from space. In this study, we focus on East Asia (especially the industrialized eastern China), where numerous large power plants and other point sources as well as area sources emit large amounts of SO2, an important gaseous pollutant and a precursor of aerosols. Using data from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) we show that such weather driven distribution can indeed be discerned from satellite data by utilizing probability distribution functions (PDFs) of SO2 column content. These PDFs are multimodal and give insight into the background pollution level at a given location and contribution from local and upwind emission sources. From these PDFs it is possible to determine the frequency for a given region to have SO2 loading that exceeds the background amount. By comparing OMI-observed long-term change in the frequency with meteorological data, we can gain insights into the effects of climate change (e.g., the weakening of Asian monsoon) on regional air quality. Such insight allows for better interpretation of satellite measurements as well as better prediction of future pollution distribution as a changing climate gives way to changing weather patterns.

Daytime Cloud Property Retrievals Over the Arctic from Multispectral MODIS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spangenberg, Douglas A.; Trepte, Qing; Minnis, Patrick; Uttal, Taneil

2004-01-01

Improving climate model predictions over Earth's polar regions requires a complete understanding of polar clouds properties. Passive satellite remote sensing techniques can be used to retrieve macro and microphysical properties of polar cloud systems. However, over the Arctic, there is minimal contrast between clouds and the background snow surface observed in satellite data, especially for visible wavelengths. This makes it difficult to identify clouds and retrieve their properties from space. Variable snow and ice cover, temperature inversions, and the predominance of mixed-phase clouds further complicate cloud property identification. For this study, the operational Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) cloud mask is first used to discriminate clouds from the background surface in Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. A solar-infrared infrared nearinfrared technique (SINT) first used by Platnick et al. (2001) is used here to retrieve cloud properties over snow and ice covered regions.

Dermatophytosis among Schoolchildren in Three Eco-climatic Zones of Mali

PubMed Central

Coulibaly, Oumar; Kone, Abdoulaye K.; Niaré-Doumbo, Safiatou; Goïta, Siaka; Gaudart, Jean; Djimdé, Abdoulaye A.; Piarroux, Renaud; Doumbo, Ogobara K.; Thera, Mahamadou A.

2016-01-01

Background Dermatophytosis, and particularly the subtype tinea capitis, is common among African children; however, the risk factors associated with this condition are poorly understood. To describe the epidemiology of dermatophytosis in distinct eco-climatic zones, three cross-sectional surveys were conducted in public primary schools located in the Sahelian, Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zones in Mali. Principal Findings Among 590 children (average age 9.7 years) the overall clinical prevalence of tinea capitis was 39.3%. Tinea capitis prevalence was 59.5% in the Sudano-Guinean zone, 41.6% in the Sudanian zone and 17% in the Sahelian eco-climatic zone. Microsporum audouinii was isolated primarily from large and/or microsporic lesions. Trichophyton soudanense was primarily isolated from trichophytic lesions. Based on the multivariate analysis, tinea capitis was independently associated with male gender (OR = 2.51, 95%CI [1.74–3.61], P<10−4) and residing in the Sudano-Guinean eco-climatic zone (OR = 7.45, 95%CI [4.63–11.99], P<10−4). Two anthropophilic dermatophytes species, Trichophyton soudanense and Microsporum audouinii, were the most frequent species associated with tinea capitis among primary schoolchildren in Mali. Conclusions Tinea capitis risk increased with increasing climate humidity in this relatively homogenous schoolchild population in Mali, which suggests a significant role of climatic factors in the epidemiology of dermatophytosis. PMID:27124571

Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

2014-05-01

Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

PubMed Central

Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

2013-01-01

Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

Evaluation of authentic science projects on climate change in secondary schools: a focus on gender differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dijkstra, Elma; Goedhart, Martin

2011-07-01

Background and purpose This study examines secondary-school students' opinions on participating in authentic science projects which are part of an international EU project on climate change research in seven countries. Partnerships between schools and research institutes result in student projects, in which students work with and learn from scientists about the global carbon cycle. This study focuses in particular on differences between male and female students, as female students normally like traditional school science less than male students. Sample and design Data, drawn from 1370 students from 60 secondary schools across Europe, were collected through questionnaires taken at the end of the projects. The evaluated aspects were: organization; enjoyment; difficulty; and impact of the projects. Results The findings suggest that authentic science education is appreciated very much by both male students and even more by female students. The projects had positive impacts on climate change ideas, in particular for female students. Female students felt that they had learned many new things more often than male students. Conclusions Both male and female students have positive opinions about the authentic science projects. The results further point to positive effects of activities in which students have an active role, like hands-on experiments or presentation of results. The findings are placed in the international context of science education and their implications for policy are discussed.

Classroom acoustics and hearing ability as determinants for perceived social climate and intentions to stay at work.

PubMed

Persson, Roger; Kristiansen, Jesper; Lund, Søren P; Shibuya, Hitomi; Nielsen, Per Møberg

2013-01-01

Background noise and room acoustics may impede social interactions by interfering with oral communication and other cognitive processes. Accordingly, recent research in school environments has showed that social relationships with peers and teachers are described more negatively in rooms with long reverberation times (RT). The purpose of this study was to investigate how RT and hearing ability (i.e., hearing thresholds [HT] and distortion product oto-acoustic emissions) were associated with school teachers' perceptions of the social climate at work and their intentions to stay on the job. School teachers (n = 107) from 10 schools that worked in classrooms classified by acoustical experts as "short RT" (3 schools, mean RT 0.41-0.47 s), "medium RT" (3 schools, mean RT 0.50-0.53 s), and "long RT" (4 schools, mean RT 0.59-0.73 s) were examined. Teachers who worked in classrooms with long RT perceived their social climate to be more competitive, conflict laden, and less relaxed and comfortable. They were more doubtful about staying on the job. Even if the teachers were generally satisfied with their work the results suggest that the comfort at work may have been further improved by acoustical interventions that focus on reducing sound reflections in the classrooms. Yet, due the study design and the novelty of the findings the potential practical significance of our observations remains to be evaluated.

Overview of the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, R. A.; Shaw, W. J.; Cziczo, D. J.; Schmid, B.; Ferrare, R. A.; Alexander, M. L.; Alexandrov, M.; Alvarez, R. J.; Arnott, W. P.; Atkinson, D. B.; Baidar, S.; Banta, R. M.; Barnard, J. C.; Beranek, J.; Berg, L. K.; Brechtel, F.; Brewer, W. A.; Cahill, J. F.; Cairns, B.; Cappa, C. D.; Chand, D.; China, S.; Comstock, J. M.; Dubey, M. K.; Easter, R. C.; Erickson, M. H.; Fast, J. D.; Floerchinger, C.; Flowers, B. A.; Fortner, E.; Gaffney, J. S.; Gilles, M. K.; Gorkowski, K.; Gustafson, W. I.; Gyawali, M.; Hair, J.; Hardesty, R. M.; Harworth, J. W.; Herndon, S.; Hiranuma, N.; Hostetler, C.; Hubbe, J. M.; Jayne, J. T.; Jeong, H.; Jobson, B. T.; Kassianov, E. I.; Kleinman, L. I.; Kluzek, C.; Knighton, B.; Kolesar, K. R.; Kuang, C.; Kubátová, A.; Langford, A. O.; Laskin, A.; Laulainen, N.; Marchbanks, R. D.; Mazzoleni, C.; Mei, F.; Moffet, R. C.; Nelson, D.; Obland, M. D.; Oetjen, H.; Onasch, T. B.; Ortega, I.; Ottaviani, M.; Pekour, M.; Prather, K. A.; Radney, J. G.; Rogers, R. R.; Sandberg, S. P.; Sedlacek, A.; Senff, C. J.; Senum, G.; Setyan, A.; Shilling, J. E.; Shrivastava, M.; Song, C.; Springston, S. R.; Subramanian, R.; Suski, K.; Tomlinson, J.; Volkamer, R.; Wallace, H. W.; Wang, J.; Weickmann, A. M.; Worsnop, D. R.; Yu, X.-Y.; Zelenyuk, A.; Zhang, Q.

2012-08-01

Substantial uncertainties still exist in the scientific understanding of the possible interactions between urban and natural (biogenic) emissions in the production and transformation of atmospheric aerosol and the resulting impact on climate change. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) carried out in June 2010 in Central Valley, California, was a comprehensive effort designed to improve this understanding. The primary objective of the field study was to investigate the evolution of secondary organic and black carbon aerosols and their climate-related properties in the Sacramento urban plume as it was routinely transported into the forested Sierra Nevada foothills area. Urban aerosols and trace gases experienced significant physical and chemical transformations as they mixed with the reactive biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from the forest. Two heavily-instrumented ground sites - one within the Sacramento urban area and another about 40 km to the northeast in the foothills area - were set up to characterize the evolution of meteorological variables, trace gases, aerosol precursors, aerosol size, composition, and climate-related properties in freshly polluted and "aged" urban air. On selected days, the DOE G-1 aircraft was deployed to make similar measurements upwind and across the evolving Sacramento plume in the morning and again in the afternoon. The NASA B-200 aircraft, carrying remote sensing instruments, was also deployed to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols and aerosol optical properties within and around the plume. This overview provides: (a) the scientific background and motivation for the study, (b) the operational and logistical information pertinent to the execution of the study, (c) an overview of key observations and initial findings from the aircraft and ground-based sampling platforms, and (d) a roadmap of planned data analyses and focused modeling efforts that will facilitate the integration of new knowledge into improved representations of key aerosol processes and properties in climate models.

Overview of the 2010 Carbonaceous Aerosols and Radiative Effects Study (CARES)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, R. A.; Shaw, W. J.; Cziczo, D. J.; Schmid, B.; Alexander, M. L.; Alexandrov, M.; Alvarez, R. J.; Arnott, W. P.; Atkinson, D. B.; Baidar, S.; Banta, R. M.; Barnard, J. C.; Beranek, J.; Berg, L. K.; Brechtel, F.; Brewer, W. A.; Cahill, J. F.; Cairns, B.; Cappa, C. D.; Chand, D.; China, S.; Comstock, J. M.; Dubey, M. K.; Easter, R. C.; Fast, J. D.; Floerchinger, C.; Flowers, B. A.; Fortner, E.; Gaffney, J. S.; Gilles, M. K.; Gorkowski, K.; Gustafson, W. I.; Gyawali, M.; Hair, J.; Hardesty, R. M.; Harworth, J. W.; Herndon, S.; Hiranuma, N.; Hostetler, C.; Hubbe, J. M.; Jayne, J. T.; Jeong, H.; Jobson, B. T.; Kleinman, L. I.; Kluzek, C.; Knighton, B.; Kolesar, K. R.; Kuang, C.; Langford, A. O.; Laskin, A.; Marchbanks, R. D.; Mazzoleni, C.; Mei, F.; Moffet, R. C.; Nelson, D.; Obland, M. D.; Oetjen, H.; Onasch, T. B.; Ortega, I.; Ottaviani, M.; Pekour, M.; Prather, K. A.; Radney, J. G.; Rogers, R. R.; Sandberg, S. P.; Sedlacek, A.; Senff, C. J.; Senum, G.; Setyan, A.; Shilling, J. E.; Shrivastava, M.; Song, C.; Springston, S. R.; Subramanian, R.; Tomlinson, J.; Volkamer, R.; Wallace, H. W.; Wang, J.; Weickmann, A. M.; Yu, X.-Y.; Zelenyuk, A.; Zhang, Q.

2012-01-01

Substantial uncertainties still exist in the scientific understanding of the possible interactions between urban and natural (biogenic) emissions in the production and transformation of atmospheric aerosol and the resulting impact on climate change. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program's Carbonaceous Aerosol and Radiative Effects Study (CARES) carried out in June 2010 in Central Valley, California, was a comprehensive effort designed to improve this understanding. The primary objective of the field study was to investigate the evolution of secondary organic and black carbon aerosols and their climate-related properties in the Sacramento urban plume as it was routinely transported into the forested Sierra Nevada foothills area. Urban aerosols and trace gases experienced significant physical and chemical transformations as they mixed with the reactive biogenic hydrocarbons emitted from the forest. Two heavily-instrumented ground sites - one within the Sacramento urban area and another about 40 km to the northeast in the foothills area - were set up to characterize the evolution of meteorological variables, trace gases, aerosol precursors, aerosol size, composition, and climate-related properties in freshly polluted and "aged" urban air. On selected days, the DOE G-1 aircraft was deployed to make similar measurements upwind and across the evolving Sacramento plume in the morning and again in the afternoon. The NASA B-200 aircraft, carrying remote sensing instruments, was also deployed to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution of aerosols and aerosol optical properties within and around the plume. This overview provides: (a) the scientific background and motivation for the study, (b) the operational and logistical information pertinent to the execution of the study, (c) an overview of key observations and initial results from the aircraft and ground-based sampling platforms, and (d) a roadmap of planned data analyses and focused modeling efforts that will facilitate the integration of new knowledge into improved representations of key aerosol processes in climate models.

Evaluation and application of an algorithm for atmospheric profiling continuity from Aqua to Suomi-NPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipton, A.; Moncet, J. L.; Lynch, R.; Payne, V.; Alvarado, M. J.

2016-12-01

We will present results from an algorithm that is being developed to produce climate-quality atmospheric profiling earth system data records (ESDRs) for application to data from hyperspectral sounding instruments, including the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on EOS Aqua and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on Suomi-NPP, along with their companion microwave sounders, AMSU and ATMS, respectively. The ESDR algorithm uses an optimal estimation approach and the implementation has a flexible, modular software structure to support experimentation and collaboration. Data record continuity benefits from the fact that the same algorithm can be applied to different sensors, simply by providing suitable configuration and data files. For analysis of satellite profiles over multi-decade periods, a concern is that the algorithm could respond inadequately to climate change if it uses a static background as a retrieval constraint, leading to retrievals that underestimate secular changes over extended periods of time and become biased toward an outdated climatology. We assessed the ability of our algorithm to respond appropriately to changes in temperature and water vapor profiles associated with climate change and, in particular, on the impact of using a climatological background in retrievals when the climatology is not static. We simulated a scenario wherein our algorithm processes 30 years of data from CrIS and ATMS (CrIMSS) with a static background based on data from the start of the 30-year period. We performed simulations using products from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), and in particular the "representative concentration pathways" midrange emissions (RCP4.5) scenario from the GISS-E2-R model. We will present results indicating that regularization using empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from a 30-year outdated covariance had a negligible effect on results. For temperature, the secular change is represented with high fidelity with the CrIMSS retrievals. For water vapor, an outdated background adds distortion to the secular moistening trend in the troposphere only above 300 mb, where the sensor information content is less than at lower levels. We will also present results illustrating the consistency between retrievals from near-simultaneous AIRS and CrIMSS measurements.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

Turtle Carapace Anomalies: The Roles of Genetic Diversity and Environment

PubMed Central

Velo-Antón, Guillermo; Becker, C. Guilherme; Cordero-Rivera, Adolfo

2011-01-01

Background Phenotypic anomalies are common in wild populations and multiple genetic, biotic and abiotic factors might contribute to their formation. Turtles are excellent models for the study of developmental instability because anomalies are easily detected in the form of malformations, additions, or reductions in the number of scutes or scales. Methodology/Principal Findings In this study, we integrated field observations, manipulative experiments, and climatic and genetic approaches to investigate the origin of carapace scute anomalies across Iberian populations of the European pond turtle, Emys orbicularis. The proportion of anomalous individuals varied from 3% to 69% in local populations, with increasing frequency of anomalies in northern regions. We found no significant effect of climatic and soil moisture, or climatic temperature on the occurrence of anomalies. However, lower genetic diversity and inbreeding were good predictors of the prevalence of scute anomalies among populations. Both decreasing genetic diversity and increasing proportion of anomalous individuals in northern parts of the Iberian distribution may be linked to recolonization events from the Southern Pleistocene refugium. Conclusions/Significance Overall, our results suggest that developmental instability in turtle carapace formation might be caused, at least in part, by genetic factors, although the influence of environmental factors affecting the developmental stability of turtle carapace cannot be ruled out. Further studies of the effects of environmental factors, pollutants and heritability of anomalies would be useful to better understand the complex origin of anomalies in natural populations. PMID:21533278

Methodological framework for projecting the potential loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to global climate change

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background While research on the impact of global climate change (GCC) on ecosystems and species is flourishing, a fundamental component of biodiversity – molecular variation – has not yet received its due attention in such studies. Here we present a methodological framework for projecting the loss of intraspecific genetic diversity due to GCC. Methods The framework consists of multiple steps that combines 1) hierarchical genetic clustering methods to define comparable units of inference, 2) species accumulation curves (SAC) to infer sampling completeness, and 3) species distribution modelling (SDM) to project the genetic diversity loss under GCC. We suggest procedures for existing data sets as well as specifically designed studies. We illustrate the approach with two worked examples from a land snail (Trochulus villosus) and a caddisfly (Smicridea (S.) mucronata). Results Sampling completeness was diagnosed on the third coarsest haplotype clade level for T. villosus and the second coarsest for S. mucronata. For both species, a substantial species range loss was projected under the chosen climate scenario. However, despite substantial differences in data set quality concerning spatial sampling and sampling depth, no loss of haplotype clades due to GCC was predicted for either species. Conclusions The suggested approach presents a feasible method to tap the rich resources of existing phylogeographic data sets and guide the design and analysis of studies explicitly designed to estimate the impact of GCC on a currently still neglected level of biodiversity. PMID:23176586

Optimal Interpolation scheme to generate reference crop evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomas-Burguera, Miquel; Beguería, Santiago; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio; Maneta, Marco

2018-05-01

We used an Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme to generate a reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) grid, forcing meteorological variables, and their respective error variance in the Iberian Peninsula for the period 1989-2011. To perform the OI we used observational data from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and outputs from a physically-based climate model. To compute ETo we used five OI schemes to generate grids for the five observed climate variables necessary to compute ETo using the FAO-recommended form of the Penman-Monteith equation (FAO-PM). The granularity of the resulting grids are less sensitive to variations in the density and distribution of the observational network than those generated by other interpolation methods. This is because our implementation of the OI method uses a physically-based climate model as prior background information about the spatial distribution of the climatic variables, which is critical for under-observed regions. This provides temporal consistency in the spatial variability of the climatic fields. We also show that increases in the density and improvements in the distribution of the observational network reduces substantially the uncertainty of the climatic and ETo estimates. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of observational uncertainties and network densification suggests the existence of a trade-off between quantity and quality of observations.

Relationship between climate change and wars between nomadic and farming groups from the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Y.; Liu, L.; Fang, X. Q.; Ma, Y. N.

2015-07-01

In ancient China, the change in regional agriculture and animal husbandry productivity caused by climate change led to either wars or peaceful relations between nomadic and farming groups. From the Western Han Dynasty to the Tang Dynasty there were 367 wars between the two groups. The nomadic people initiated 69 % of the wars, but 62.4 % were won by the farmers. On a 30 year-period timescale, warm climates corresponded to a high incidence of wars. The conflicts between the nomadic and farming groups took place in some areas which are sensitive to climate change. During the cold periods, the battlefields were mostly in the southern regions. The main causes which leading to the above results are following: (1) warm climate provided a solid material foundation for nomadic and farming groups, especially contributed to improve the productivity of nomadic group; meanwhile, the excessive desire for essential means of subsistence in nomadic group could led to wars. (2) During the cold periods, people of farming group moved to the south and construct the south, meanwhile, nomadic group occupied the central plains, thus the battlefields also changed. As the background, climate change plays an indirect role in wars between groups.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Associations between LGBTQ-Affirmative School Climate and Adolescent Drinking Behaviors

PubMed Central

Coulter, Robert W.S.; Birkett, Michelle; Corliss, Heather L.; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L.; Mustanski, Brian; Stall, Ron D.

2016-01-01

Background We investigated whether adolescents drank alcohol less frequently if they lived in jurisdictions with school climates that were more affirmative of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) individuals. Methods Data from the 2010 School Health Profile survey, which measured LGBTQ school climate (e.g., percentage of schools with safe spaces and gay-straight alliances), were linked with pooled data from the 2005 and 2007 Youth Risk Behavior Survey, which measured sexual orientation identity, demographics, and alcohol use (number of drinking days, drinking days at school, and heavy episodic drinking days) in 8 jurisdictions. Two-level Poisson models tested the associations between school climate and alcohol use for each sexual-orientation subgroup. Results Living in jurisdictions with more (versus less) affirmative LGBTQ school climates was significantly associated with: fewer heavy episodic drinking days for gay/lesbian (incidence-rate ratio [IRR]=0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56, 0.87; p=0.001) and heterosexual (IRR=0.80; 95% CI: 0.76, 0.83; p<0.001) adolescents; and fewer drinking days at school for adolescents unsure of their sexual orientation (IRR=0.57; 95% CI: 0.35, 0.93; p=0.024). Conclusions Fostering LGBTQ-affirmative school climates may reduce some drinking behaviors for gay/lesbian adolescents, heterosexual adolescents, and adolescents unsure of their sexual orientation. PMID:26946989

Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates

PubMed Central

Curtis, Caroline A.; Bradley, Bethany A.

2016-01-01

Background Although increasingly sophisticated environmental measures are being applied to species distributions models, the focus remains on using climatic data to provide estimates of habitat suitability. Climatic tolerance estimates based on expert knowledge are available for a wide range of plants via the USDA PLANTS database. We aim to test how climatic tolerance inferred from plant distribution records relates to tolerance estimated by experts. Further, we use this information to identify circumstances when species distributions are more likely to approximate climatic tolerance. Methods We compiled expert knowledge estimates of minimum and maximum precipitation and minimum temperature tolerance for over 1800 conservation plant species from the ‘plant characteristics’ information in the USDA PLANTS database. We derived climatic tolerance from distribution data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity and Information Facility (GBIF) and corresponding climate from WorldClim. We compared expert-derived climatic tolerance to empirical estimates to find the difference between their inferred climate niches (ΔCN), and tested whether ΔCN was influenced by growth form or range size. Results Climate niches calculated from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based tolerance estimates (Mann-Whitney p values << 0.001). The average plant could tolerate 24 mm lower minimum precipitation, 14 mm higher maximum precipitation, and 7° C lower minimum temperatures based on distribution data relative to expert-based tolerance estimates. Species with larger ranges had greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and minimum temperature. For maximum precipitation and minimum temperature, forbs and grasses tended to have larger ΔCN while grasses and trees had larger ΔCN for minimum precipitation. Conclusion Our results show that distribution data are consistently broader than USDA PLANTS experts’ knowledge and likely provide more robust estimates of climatic tolerance, especially for widespread forbs and grasses. These findings suggest that widely available expert-based climatic tolerance estimates underrepresent species’ fundamental niche and likely fail to capture the realized niche. PMID:27870859

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

Interactions between urban heat islands and heat waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Oppenheimer, Michael; Zhu, Qing; Baldwin, Jane W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Guan, Kaiyu; Liu, Xu

2018-03-01

Heat waves (HWs) are among the most damaging climate extremes to human society. Climate models consistently project that HW frequency, severity, and duration will increase markedly over this century. For urban residents, the urban heat island (UHI) effect further exacerbates the heat stress resulting from HWs. Here we use a climate model to investigate the interactions between the UHI and HWs in 50 cities in the United States under current climate and future warming scenarios. We examine UHI2m (defined as urban-rural difference in 2m-height air temperature) and UHIs (defined as urban-rural difference in radiative surface temperature). Our results show significant sensitivity of the interaction between UHI and HWs to local background climate and warming scenarios. Sensitivity also differs between daytime and nighttime. During daytime, cities in the temperate climate region show significant synergistic effects between UHI and HWs in current climate, with an average of 0.4 K higher UHI2m or 2.8 K higher UHIs during HWs than during normal days. These synergistic effects, however, diminish in future warmer climates. In contrast, the daytime synergistic effects for cities in dry regions are insignificant in the current climate, but emerge in future climates. At night, the synergistic effects are similar across climate regions in the current climate, and are stronger in future climate scenarios. We use a biophysical factorization method to disentangle the mechanisms behind the interactions between UHI and HWs that explain the spatial-temporal patterns of the interactions. Results show that the difference in the increase of urban versus rural evaporation and enhanced anthropogenic heat emissions (air conditioning energy use) during HWs are key contributors to the synergistic effects during daytime. The contrast in water availability between urban and rural land plays an important role in determining the contribution of evaporation. At night, the enhanced release of stored and anthropogenic heat during HWs are the primary contributors to the synergistic effects.

Orbital Sciences Pegasus XL Flight Simulation

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-02-28

Seen at Vandenberg Air Force Base in California is the fairing (foreground) for the Orbital Sciences Pegasus XL rocket. In the background is the third stage, under the clean room tent. The rocket is the launch vehicle for NASA's Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere, or AIM, spacecraft. AIM is the seventh Small Explorers mission under NASA's Explorer Program. The program provides frequent flight opportunities for world-class scientific investigations from space within heliophysics and astrophysics. The AIM spacecraft will fly three instruments designed to study polar mesospheric clouds located at the edge of space, 50 miles above the Earth's surface in the coldest part of the planet's atmosphere. The mission's primary goal is to explain why these clouds form and what has caused them to become brighter and more numerous and appear at lower latitudes in recent years. AIM's results will provide the basis for the study of long-term variability in the mesospheric climate and its relationship to global climate change. AIM is scheduled to be mated to the Pegasus XL during the second week of April, after which final inspections will be conducted. Launch is scheduled for April 25.

Evaluation of Consequences of Dust Positioned in Southwest of Iran on Coagulant Factors

PubMed Central

Saeb, Keivan; Sarizade, Gholamreza; Khodadi, Mohammad; Biazar, Esmaeil

2013-01-01

Background: Various regions in Iran, especially the Khuzestan Province, have been covered by dust and dirt during the past two years due to environmental changes in the Middle East. We sought to evaluate the effect of these pollutants on the coagulant factors of people residing in Abadan and Khoramshahr, two major cities of Khuzestan Province. Methods: One hundred twenty-nine healthy individuals were enrolled into this study, and their prothrombin time as well as fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VIII levels were measured before and after climate changes. Results: After climate changes, the mean prothrombin time decreased, while the fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VIII levels rose. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the pollutants deployed in the Middle East can affect prothrombin time as well as fibrinogen, platelet, and Factor VII levels considerably and increase coagulant state. The pollutants can, consequently, increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases. It seems that cooperation at government levels between Iran and its neighboring countries is required to reverse desertification and avoid inaccurate usage of subterranean water resources so as to lessen air pollution. PMID:23825886

Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM). 1. Background, objectives, and vision.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Since the development of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model in 1988, the EPIC-based plant growth code has been incorporated and modified into many agro-ecosystem models. The goals of the Unified Plant Growth Model (UPGM) project are: 1) integrating into one platform the enhance...

Ozone, Climate, and Global Atmospheric Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Joel S.

1992-01-01

Presents an overview of global atmospheric problems relating to ozone depletion and global warming. Provides background information on the composition of the earth's atmosphere and origin of atmospheric ozone. Describes causes, effects, and evidence of ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect. A vignette provides a summary of a 1991 assessment of…

Using Climate Change Scenarios to Assess High School Students' Argumentation Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Vaille; Carson, Katherine

2017-01-01

Background: Many international science curriculum documents mandate that students should be able to participate in argument, debate and decision-making about contemporary science issues affecting society. Termed socioscientific issues, these topics provide students with opportunities to use their scientific knowledge to discuss, debate and defend…

Advisory: Definitions, Descriptions, Decisions, Directions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galassi, John P.; Gulledge, Suzanne A.; Cox, Nancy D.

Advisory groups have played an essential role in improving the school climate and conditions for young adolescents in schools. How middle school decision makers go about the process of designing or re-designing an advisory program needs to be considered. A discussion is presented of the background information that helps define advisories. It…