Impacts of climate change on precipitation and discharge extremes through the use of statistical downscaling approaches in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R

2016-02-01

Mediterranean region is characterized by high precipitation variability often enhanced by orography, with strong seasonality and large inter-annual fluctuations, and by high heterogeneity of terrain and land surface properties. As a consequence, catchments in this area are often prone to the occurrence of hydrometeorological extremes, including storms, floods and flash-floods. A number of climate studies focused in the Mediterranean region predict that extreme events will occur with higher intensity and frequency, thus requiring further analyses to assess their effect at the land surface, particularly in small- and medium-sized watersheds. In this study, climate and hydrologic simulations produced within the Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins (CLIMB) EU FP7 research project were used to analyze how precipitation extremes propagate into discharge extremes in the Rio Mannu basin (472.5km(2)), located in Sardinia, Italy. The basin hydrologic response to climate forcings in a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period was simulated through the combined use of a set of global and regional climate models, statistical downscaling techniques, and a process based distributed hydrologic model. We analyzed and compared the distribution of annual maxima extracted from hourly and daily precipitation and peak discharge time series, simulated by the hydrologic model under climate forcing. For this aim, yearly maxima were fit by the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution using a regional approach. Next, we discussed commonality and contrasting behaviors of precipitation and discharge maxima distributions to better understand how hydrological transformations impact propagation of extremes. Finally, we show how rainfall statistical downscaling algorithms produce more reliable forcings for hydrological models than coarse climate model outputs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and watershed mercury export in a Coastal Plain watershed

Treesearch

Heather Golden; Christopher D. Knightes; Paul A. Conrads; Toby D. Feaster; Gary M. Davis; Stephen T. Benedict; Paul M. Bradley

2016-01-01

Future changes in climatic conditions may affect variations in watershed processes (e.g., hydrological, biogeochemical) and surface water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such climatic shifts will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern.

Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

PubMed

Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

2016-05-01

Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water resources.

On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

Global change and terrestrial hydrology - A review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, Robert E.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews the role of terrestrial hydrology in determining the coupling between the surface and atmosphere. Present experience with interactive numerical simulation is discussed and approaches to the inclusion of land hydrology in global climate models ae considered. At present, a wide range of answers as to expected changes in surface hydrology is given by nominally similar models. Studies of the effects of tropical deforestation and global warming illustrate this point.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Hydrologic connectivity of geographically isolated wetlands to surface water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, I. F.; Ameli, A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic connectivity of wetlands is poorly characterized and understood. Our inability to quantify this connectivity compromises our understanding of the potential impacts of land use (e.g., wetland drainage) and climate changes on watershed structure, function and water supplies. We develop a computationally efficient physically-based subsurface-surface hydrological model to map both the subsurface and surface hydrologic connectivity of geographically isolated wetlands (i.e., wetlands without surface outlets) and explore the time and length variations in these connections to a river within the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Despite a high density of geographically isolated wetlands, modeled connections show that these wetlands are not hydrologically isolated. Hydrologic subsurface connectivity differs significantly from surface connectivity in terms of timing and length of connections. Slow subsurface connections between wetlands and the downstream river originate from wetlands throughout the watershed, whereas fast surface connections were limited to large events and originate from wetlands located near the river. Results also suggest that prioritization of protection of wetlands that relies on shortest distance of wetland to the river or surface connections alone can lead to unintended consequences in terms of loss of attending wetland ecosystem functions, services and their benefits to society. This modeling approach provides first ever insight on the nature of geographically isolated wetland subsurface and surface hydrological connections to rivers, and can provide guidance on the development of watershed management and conservation plans (e.g., wetlands drainage/restoration) under different climate and land management scenarios.

Hydrologic response to multimodel climate output using a physically based model of groundwater/surface water interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulis, M.; Paniconi, C.; Marrocu, M.; Huard, D.; Chaumont, D.

2012-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary instruments for obtaining projections of future global climate change. Outputs from GCMs, aided by dynamical and/or statistical downscaling techniques, have long been used to simulate changes in regional climate systems over wide spatiotemporal scales. Numerous studies have acknowledged the disagreements between the various GCMs and between the different downscaling methods designed to compensate for the mismatch between climate model output and the spatial scale at which hydrological models are applied. Very little is known, however, about the importance of these differences once they have been input or assimilated by a nonlinear hydrological model. This issue is investigated here at the catchment scale using a process-based model of integrated surface and subsurface hydrologic response driven by outputs from 12 members of a multimodel climate ensemble. The data set consists of daily values of precipitation and min/max temperatures obtained by combining four regional climate models and five GCMs. The regional scenarios were downscaled using a quantile scaling bias-correction technique. The hydrologic response was simulated for the 690 km2des Anglais catchment in southwestern Quebec, Canada. The results show that different hydrological components (river discharge, aquifer recharge, and soil moisture storage) respond differently to precipitation and temperature anomalies in the multimodel climate output, with greater variability for annual discharge compared to recharge and soil moisture storage. We also find that runoff generation and extreme event-driven peak hydrograph flows are highly sensitive to any uncertainty in climate data. Finally, the results show the significant impact of changing sequences of rainy days on groundwater recharge fluxes and the influence of longer dry spells in modifying soil moisture spatial variability.

The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate, and lays the groundwork for further surface hydrology developments in Titan GCMs.

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Quantifying Direct and Indirect Impact of Future Climate on Sub-Arctic Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Endalamaw, A. M.; Bolton, W. R.; Young-Robertson, J. M.; Morton, D.; Hinzman, L. D.

2016-12-01

Projected future climate will have a significant impact on the hydrology of interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds, directly though the changes in precipitation and temperature patterns, and indirectly through the cryospheric and ecological impacts. Although the latter is the dominant factor controlling the hydrological processes in the interior Alaska sub-arctic, it is often overlooked in many climate change impact studies. In this study, we aim to quantify and compare the direct and indirect impact of the projected future climate on the hydrology of the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) meso-scale hydrological model will be implemented to simulate the hydrological processes, including runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture dynamics in the Chena River Basin (area = 5400km2), located in the interior Alaska sub-arctic region. Permafrost and vegetation distribution will be derived from the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (GIPL) model and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Model (LPJ) model, respectively. All models will be calibrated and validated using historical data. The Scenario Network for Alaskan and Arctic Planning (SNAP) 5-model average projected climate data products will be used as forcing data for each of these models. The direct impact of climate change on hydrology is estimated using surface parameterization derived from the present day permafrost and vegetation distribution, and future climate forcing from SNAP projected climate data products. Along with the projected future climate, outputs of GIPL and LPJ will be incorporated into the VIC model to estimate the indirect and overall impact of future climate on the hydrology processes in the interior Alaskan sub-arctic watersheds. Finally, we will present the potential hydrological and ecological changes by the end of the 21st century.

Developing an approach to effectively use super ensemble experiments for the projection of hydrological extremes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watanabe, S.; Kim, H.; Utsumi, N.

2017-12-01

This study aims to develop a new approach which projects hydrology under climate change using super ensemble experiments. The use of multiple ensemble is essential for the estimation of extreme, which is a major issue in the impact assessment of climate change. Hence, the super ensemble experiments are recently conducted by some research programs. While it is necessary to use multiple ensemble, the multiple calculations of hydrological simulation for each output of ensemble simulations needs considerable calculation costs. To effectively use the super ensemble experiments, we adopt a strategy to use runoff projected by climate models directly. The general approach of hydrological projection is to conduct hydrological model simulations which include land-surface and river routing process using atmospheric boundary conditions projected by climate models as inputs. This study, on the other hand, simulates only river routing model using runoff projected by climate models. In general, the climate model output is systematically biased so that a preprocessing which corrects such bias is necessary for impact assessments. Various bias correction methods have been proposed, but, to the best of our knowledge, no method has proposed for variables other than surface meteorology. Here, we newly propose a method for utilizing the projected future runoff directly. The developed method estimates and corrects the bias based on the pseudo-observation which is a result of retrospective offline simulation. We show an application of this approach to the super ensemble experiments conducted under the program of Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI). More than 400 ensemble experiments from multiple climate models are available. The results of the validation using historical simulations by HAPPI indicates that the output of this approach can effectively reproduce retrospective runoff variability. Likewise, the bias of runoff from super ensemble climate projections is corrected, and the impact of climate change on hydrologic extremes is assessed in a cost-efficient way.

Determining spatially discretized surface flow and baseflow in the context of climate change and water quality management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimonet, M.; Oudin, L.; Rabouille, C.; Garnier, J.; Silvestre, M.; Vautard, R.; Thieu, V.

2016-12-01

Water quality management of fresh and marine aquatic systems requires modelling tools along the land-ocean continuum in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on nutrient transfer and on potential ecosystem dysfonctioning (e.g. eutrophication, anoxia). In addition to direct effects of climate change on water temperature, it is essential to consider indirect effects of precipitation and temperature changes on hydrology since nutrient transfers are particularly sensitive to the partition of streamflow between surface flow and baseflow. Yet, the determination of surface flow and baseflow, their spatial repartition on drainage basins, and their relative potential evolution under climate change remains challenging. In this study, we developed a generic approach to determine 10-day surface flow and baseflow using a regionalized hydrological model applied at a high spatial resolution (unitary catchments of area circa 10km²). Streamflow data at gauged basins were used to calibrate hydrological model parameters that were then applied on neighbor ungauged basins to estimate streamflow at the scale of the French territory. The proposed methodology allowed representing spatialized surface flow and baseflow that are consistent with climatic and geomorphological settings. The methodology was then used to determine the effect of climate change on the spatial repartition of surface flow and baseflow on the Seine drainage bassin. Results showed large discrepancies of both the amount and the spatial repartition of changes of surface flow and baseflow according to the several GCM and RCM used to derive projected climatic forcing. Consequently, it is expected that the impact of climate change on nutrient transfer might also be quite heterogeneous for the Seine River. This methodology could be applied in any drainage basin where at least several gauged hydrometric stations are available. The estimated surface flow and baseflow can then be used in hydro-ecological models in order to evaluate direct and indirect impacts of climate change on nutrient transfers and potential ecosystem dysfunctioning along the land-ocean continuum.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Catchment Integration of Sensor Array Observations to Understand Hydrologic Connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Redfern, S.; Livneh, B.; Molotch, N. P.; Suding, K.; Neff, J. C.; Hinckley, E. L. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic connectivity and the land surface water balance are likely to be impacted by climate change in the coming years. Although recent work has started to demonstrate that climate modulates connectivity, we still lack knowledge of how local ecology will respond to environmental and atmospheric changes and subsequently interact with connectivity. The overarching goal of this research is to address and forecast how climate change will affect hydrologic connectivity in an alpine environment, through the use of near-surface observations (temperature, humidity, soil moisture, snow depth) from a new 16-sensor array (plus 5 precipitation gauges), together with a distributed hydrologic model, over a small catchment on Colorado's Niwot Ridge (above 3000m). Model simulations will be constrained to distributed sensor measurements taken in the study area and calibrated with streamflow. Periods of wetting and dry-down will be analyzed to identify signatures of connectivity across the landscape, its seasonal signals and its sensitivity to land cover. Further work will aim to develop future hydrologic projections, compare model output with related observations, conduct multi-physics experiments, and continue to expand the existing sensor network.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-based discharge extrapolation: estimating annual discharge for a partially gauged large river basin from its small sub-basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, L.

2013-12-01

Large-scale hydrological models and land surface models are by far the only tools for accessing future water resources in climate change impact studies. Those models estimate discharge with large uncertainties, due to the complex interaction between climate and hydrology, the limited quality and availability of data, as well as model uncertainties. A new purely data-based scale-extrapolation method is proposed, to estimate water resources for a large basin solely from selected small sub-basins, which are typically two-orders-of-magnitude smaller than the large basin. Those small sub-basins contain sufficient information, not only on climate and land surface, but also on hydrological characteristics for the large basin In the Baltic Sea drainage basin, best discharge estimation for the gauged area was achieved with sub-basins that cover 2-4% of the gauged area. There exist multiple sets of sub-basins that resemble the climate and hydrology of the basin equally well. Those multiple sets estimate annual discharge for gauged area consistently well with 5% average error. The scale-extrapolation method is completely data-based; therefore it does not force any modelling error into the prediction. The multiple predictions are expected to bracket the inherent variations and uncertainties of the climate and hydrology of the basin. The method can be applied in both un-gauged basins and un-gauged periods with uncertainty estimation.

A blueprint for using climate change predictions in an eco-hydrological study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2009-12-01

There is a growing interest to extend climate change predictions to smaller, catchment-size scales and identify their implications on hydrological and ecological processes. Small scale processes are, in fact, expected to mediate climate changes, producing local effects and feedbacks that can interact with the principal consequences of the change. This is particularly applicable, when a complex interaction, such as the inter-relationship between the hydrological cycle and vegetation dynamics, is considered. This study presents a blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the catchment scale. Climate conditions, present or future, are imposed through input hydrometeorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models. These variables are simulated with an hourly weather generator as an outcome of a stochastic downscaling technique. The generator is parameterized to reproduce the climate of southwestern Arizona for present (1961-2000) and future (2081-2100) conditions. The methodology provides the capability to generate ensemble realizations for the future that take into account the heterogeneous nature of climate predictions from different models. The generated time series of meteorological variables for the two scenarios corresponding to the current and mean expected future serve as input to a coupled hydrological and vegetation dynamics model, “Tethys-Chloris”. The hydrological model reproduces essential components of the land-surface hydrological cycle, solving the mass and energy budget equations. The vegetation model parsimoniously parameterizes essential plant life-cycle processes, including photosynthesis, phenology, carbon allocation, and tissue turnover. The results for the two mean scenarios are compared and discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity The need to account for uncertainties in projections of future climate is discussed and a methodology for propagating these uncertainties into the probability density functions of changes in eco-hydrological variables is presented.

Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

2013-12-01

The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although freshwater supply and surface water quality were sustained or enhanced overall, these hydrologic services declined in ~60% and 20% of the landscape, respectively. The greatest improvement for most hydrologic services corresponded to areas of restored wetland, forest and perennial crops, which were less vulnerable to future degradation. In the Investment in Innovation scenario, freshwater supply declined in almost the entire watershed; improvement of surface water quality and flood regulation occurred mainly in urban areas, where highly engineered systems made them less vulnerable. Overall, our results indicated that hydrologic services will respond differently to future climate and land-use change, and sustaining one may involve tradeoffs of another. Technological progress can conserve particular services but might not be the panacea for the future. How society reacts in the face of changes can have an important role in determining the pathways to the future and the provision and spatial patterns of ecosystem services.

Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

2017-12-01

Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective Weather and Climate Simulations for Environmental Applications

EPA Science Inventory

A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem mo...

The Montaguto earth flow: nine years of observation and analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guerriero, L.; Revellino, R; Grelle, G.; Diodato, N; Guadagno, F.M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2016-01-01

This paper summarizes the methods, results, and interpretation of analyses carried out between 2006 and 2015 at the Montaguto earth flow in southern Italy. We conducted a multi-temporal analysis of earth-flow activity to reconstruct the morphological and structural evolution of the flow. Data from field mapping were combined with a geometric reconstruction of the basal slip surface in order to investigate relations between basal-slip surface geometry and deformation styles of earth-flow material. Moreover, we reconstructed the long-term pattern of earth-flow movement using both historical observations and modeled hydrologic and climatic data. Hydrologic and climatic data were used to develop a Landslide Hydrological Climatological (LHC) indicator model.

Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP continental hydrological system used in the CNRM-CM6 climate model for the next CMIP6 exercise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decharme, Bertrand; Vergnes, Jean-Pierre; Minvielle, Marie; Colin, Jeanne; Delire, Christine

2016-04-01

The land surface hydrology represents an active component of the climate system. It is likely to influence the water and energy exchanges at the land surface, the ocean salinity and temperature at the mouth of the largest rivers, and the climate at least at the regional scale. In climate models, the continental hydrology is simulated via Land Surface Models (LSM), which compute water and energy budgets at the surface, coupled to River Routing Model (RRM), which convert the runoff simulated by the LSMs into river discharge in order to transfer the continental fresh water into the oceans and then to close the global hydrological cycle. Validating these Continental Hydrological Systems (CHS) at the global scale is therefore a crucial task, which requires off-line simulations driven by realistic atmospheric fluxes to avoid the systematic biases commonly found in the atmospheric models. In the CNRM-CM6 climate model of Météo-France, that will be used for the next Coupled Climate Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) exercise, the land surface hydrology is simulated using the ISBA-TRIP CHS coupled via the OASIS-MCT coupler. The ISBA LSM solves explicitly the one dimensional Fourier law for soil temperature and the mixed form of the Richards equation for soil moisture using a 14-layers discretization over 12m depths. For the snowpack, a discretization using 12 layers allows the explicit representation of some snow key processes as its viscosity, its compaction due to wind, its age and its albedo on the visible and near infrared spectra. The TRIP RRM uses a global river channel network at 0.5° resolution. It is based on a three prognostic equations for the surface stream water, the seasonal floodplains, and the groundwater. The streamflow velocity is computed using the Maning's formula. The floodplain reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the river bankfull height and vice-versa. The flood interacts with the ISBA soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. Finally, the groundwater scheme is based on the two-dimensional groundwater flow equation for the piezometric head. Its coupling with ISBA permits to account for the presence of a water table under the soil moisture column allowing upward capillarity fluxes into the soil. In this study, we will present the off-line evaluation at the global scale of the ISBA-TRIP CHS over a recent period (1979-2010). The system will be compared to observations such as GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) terrestrial water storage data, snow and permafrost extents from NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center), or in-situ river discharge measurements from several sources. In addition we will also explore the impacts on the simulated water budget to account for some processes such as upward capillarity fluxes from groundwaters or seasonal floodplains. At last, it is envisaged to discuss some results about land/atmosphere interactions induced by these processes in the CNRM-CM6 climate model.

The Value of GRACE Data in Improving, Assessing and Evaluating Land Surface and Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.

2011-12-01

I will review how the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite measurements have improved land surface models that are developed for weather, climate, and hydrological studies. GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes have been successfully used to assess and evaluate the improved representations of land-surface hydrological processes such as groundwater-soil moisture interaction, frozen soil and infiltration, and the topographic control on runoff production, as evident in the simulations from the latest Noah-MP, the Community Land Model, and the Community Climate System Model. GRACE data sets have made it possible to estimate key terrestrial water storage components (snow mass, surface water, groundwater or water table depth), biomass, and surface water fluxes (evapotranspiration, solid precipitation, melt of snow/ice). Many of the examples will draw from my Land, Environment and Atmosphere Dynamics group's work on land surface model developments, snow mass retrieval, and multi-sensor snow data assimilation using the ensemble Karman filter and the ensemble Karman smoother. Finally, I will briefly outline some future directions in using GRACE in land surface modeling.

Impact of Geoengineering Schemes on the Global Hydrological Cycle

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Duffy, P; Taylor, K

2007-12-07

The rapidly rising CO{sub 2} level in the atmosphere has led to proposals of climate stabilization via 'Geoengineering' schemes that would mitigate climate change by intentionally reducing the solar radiation incident on earth's surface. In this paper, we address the impact of these climate stabilization schemes on the global hydrological cycle, using equilibrium simulations from an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. We show that insolation reductions sufficient to offset global-scale temperature increases lead to a decrease in the intensity of the global hydrologic cycle. This occurs because solar forcing is more effective in driving changesmore » in global mean evaporation than is CO{sub 2} forcing of a similar magnitude. In the model used here, the hydrologic sensitivity, defined as the percentage change in global mean precipitation per degree warming, is 2.4% for solar forcing, but only 1.5% for CO{sub 2} forcing. Although other models and the climate system itself may differ quantitatively from this result, the conclusion can be understood based on simple considerations of the surface energy budget and thus is likely to be robust. Compared to changing temperature by altering greenhouse gas concentrations, changing temperature by varying insolation results in larger changes in net radiative fluxes at the surface; these are compensated by larger changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Hence the hydrological cycle is more sensitive to temperature adjustment via changes in insolation than changes in greenhouse gases. This implies that an alteration in solar forcing might offset temperature changes or hydrological changes from greenhouse warming, but could not cancel both at once.« less

Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes obtained from three GCMs and two hydrology models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagemann, Stefan; Chen, Cui; Haerter, Jan O.; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Piani, Claudio

2010-05-01

Future climate model scenarios depend crucially on their adequate representation of the hydrological cycle. Within the European project "Water and Global Change" (WATCH) special care is taken to couple state-of-the-art climate model output to a suite of hydrological models. This coupling is expected to lead to a better assessment of changes in the hydrological cycle. However, due to the systematic model errors of climate models, their output is often not directly applicable as input for hydrological models. Thus, the methodology of a statistical bias correction has been developed, which can be used for correcting climate model output to produce internally consistent fields that have the same statistical intensity distribution as the observations. As observations, global re-analysed daily data of precipitation and temperature are used that are obtained in the WATCH project. We will apply the bias correction to global climate model data of precipitation and temperature from the GCMs ECHAM5/MPIOM, CNRM-CM3 and LMDZ-4, and intercompare the bias corrected data to the original GCM data and the observations. Then, the orginal and the bias corrected GCM data will be used to force two global hydrology models: (1) the hydrological model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-HM) consisting of the Simplified Land surface (SL) scheme and the Hydrological Discharge (HD) model, and (2) the dynamic vegetation model LPJmL operated by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The impact of the bias correction on the projected simulated hydrological changes will be analysed, and the resulting behaviour of the two hydrology models will be compared.

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

1997-01-01

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Spatial variability in the response of surface-water extent to climate extremes across the Prairie Pothole Region and adjacent Northern Prairie, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderhoof, M.; Lane, C.; McManus, M.; Alexander, L. C.; Christensen, J.

2017-12-01

Surface-water extent, duration and movement will depend not only on climatic inputs but also the relative importance of different hydrologic pathways (e.g., surface storage, infiltration, evapotranspiration, stream outflows). We mapped surface-water extent from historic drought years to historic wet years spanning 1985 - 2015 across eleven Landsat path/rows representing the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie of the United States. The PPR not only experienced a greater surface water extent under median conditions (2.6 times more) relative to the adjacent Northern Prairie, but showed a greater difference between drought and deluge conditions as well (range averaged 8.5 ha surface water km-2 relative to 2.5 ha surface water km-2 for the PPR and Northern Prairie, respectively). To explain the spatial variability in the amount of surface water expansion and contraction we used a two-stage modeling approach. First, surface-water extent was regressed on accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration). The slope of surface-water extent to climate inputs (per watershed) was our dependent variable in the second stage. That slope was regressed against independent variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). Stream-connected surface water can leave via stream flow, influencing the rate at which surface-water may leave a location, therefore stream-connected and disconnected surface water were analyzed separately. Stream-connected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions (i.e., accumulated) in landscapes with more lakes and less artificial drainage (e.g., ditching, tile drainage). Disconnected surface water responded more strongly to wetter climatic conditions when landscapes contained greater wetland density, fewer streams and a lower predicted rate of infiltration. From these findings, we can expect that the relationship between upstream and downstream waters will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics, and that climate-change related shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have an uneven effect on surface water expansion and contraction across the landscape.

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

2017-01-01

Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

Uncertainty of climate change impact on groundwater reserves - Application to a chalk aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; Brouyère, Serge; Wildemeersch, Samuel; Therrien, René; Dassargues, Alain

2015-09-01

Recent studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on groundwater resources for different geographical and climatic contexts. However, most studies have either not estimated the uncertainty around projected impacts or have limited the analysis to the uncertainty related to climate models. In this study, the uncertainties around impact projections from several sources (climate models, natural variability of the weather, hydrological model calibration) are calculated and compared for the Geer catchment (465 km2) in Belgium. We use a surface-subsurface integrated model implemented using the finite element code HydroGeoSphere, coupled with climate change scenarios (2010-2085) and the UCODE_2005 inverse model, to assess the uncertainty related to the calibration of the hydrological model. This integrated model provides a more realistic representation of the water exchanges between surface and subsurface domains and constrains more the calibration with the use of both surface and subsurface observed data. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed on predictions. The linear uncertainty analysis is approximate for this nonlinear system, but it provides some measure of uncertainty for computationally demanding models. Results show that, for the Geer catchment, the most important uncertainty is related to calibration of the hydrological model. The total uncertainty associated with the prediction of groundwater levels remains large. By the end of the century, however, the uncertainty becomes smaller than the predicted decline in groundwater levels.

Multi-Scale Simulations of Past and Future Projections of Hydrology in Lake Tahoe Basin, California-Nevada (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niswonger, R. G.; Huntington, J. L.; Dettinger, M. D.; Rajagopal, S.; Gardner, M.; Morton, C. G.; Reeves, D. M.; Pohll, G. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources in the Tahoe basin are susceptible to long-term climate change and extreme events because it is a middle-altitude, snow-dominated basin that experiences large inter-annual climate variations. Lake Tahoe provides critical water supply for its basin and downstream populations, but changes in water supply are obscured by complex climatic and hydrologic gradients across the high relief, geologically complex basin. An integrated surface and groundwater model of the Lake Tahoe basin has been developed using GSFLOW to assess the effects of climate change and extreme events on surface and groundwater resources. Key hydrologic mechanisms are identified with this model that explains recent changes in water resources of the region. Critical vulnerabilities of regional water-supplies and hazards also were explored. Maintaining a balance between (a) accurate representation of spatial features (e.g., geology, streams, and topography) and hydrologic response (i.e., groundwater, stream, lake, and wetland flows and storages), and (b) computational efficiency, is a necessity for the desired model applications. Potential climatic influences on water resources are analyzed here in simulations of long-term water-availability and flood responses to selected 100-year climate-model projections. GSFLOW is also used to simulate a scenario depicting an especially extreme storm event that was constructed from a combination of two historical atmospheric-river storm events as part of the USGS MultiHazards Demonstration Project. Historical simulated groundwater levels, streamflow, wetlands, and lake levels compare well with measured values for a 30-year historical simulation period. Results are consistent for both small and large model grid cell sizes, due to the model's ability to represent water table altitude, streams, and other hydrologic features at the sub-grid scale. Simulated hydrologic responses are affected by climate change, where less groundwater resources will be available during more frequent droughts. Simulated floods for the region indicate issues related to drainage in the developed areas around Lake Tahoe, and necessary dam releases that create downstream flood risks.

Global lake evaporation accelerated by changes in surface energy allocation in a warmer climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Lee, Xuhui; Xiao, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Schultz, Natalie; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Mi; Zhao, Lei

2018-06-01

Lake evaporation is a sensitive indicator of the hydrological response to climate change. Variability in annual lake evaporation has been assumed to be controlled primarily by the incoming surface solar radiation. Here we report simulations with a numerical model of lake surface fluxes, with input data based on a high-emissions climate change scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). In our simulations, the global annual lake evaporation increases by 16% by the end of the century, despite little change in incoming solar radiation at the surface. We attribute about half of this projected increase to two effects: periods of ice cover are shorter in a warmer climate and the ratio of sensible to latent heat flux decreases, thus channelling more energy into evaporation. At low latitudes, annual lake evaporation is further enhanced because the lake surface warms more slowly than the air, leading to more long-wave radiation energy available for evaporation. We suggest that an analogous change in the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes in the open ocean can help to explain some of the spread among climate models in terms of their sensitivity of precipitation to warming. We conclude that an accurate prediction of the energy balance at the Earth's surface is crucial for evaluating the hydrological response to climate change.

Quantifying the Hydrologic Effect of Climate Variability in the Lower Colorado Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Switanek, M.; Troch, P. A.

2007-12-01

Regional climate patterns are driven in large part by ocean states and associated atmospheric circulations, but modified through feedbacks from land surface conditions. The latter defines the climate elasticity of a river basin. Many regions that lie between semi-arid and semi-humid zones with seasonal rainfall, for instance, experience prolonged periods of wet and dry spells. Understanding the triggers that bring a river basin from one state (e.g. wet period of late 90s in the Colorado basin) abruptly to another state (multi-year drought initiated in 2001 to present) is what motivates the present study. Our research methodology investigates the causes of regional climate variability and its effect on hydrologic response. By correlating, using different monthly time lags, sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea level pressures (SLP) with basin averaged precipitation and surface temperature, we determine the most influential regions of the Pacific Ocean on lower Colorado climate variability. Using the most correlated data for each month, we derive precipitation and temperature distributions under similar conditions to that of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We compare the distributions of the climatic data, given ENSO constraints on SST and SLP, to the distributions considering non-ENSO years. Finally, we use observed stream flows and climatic data to determine the basin's climate elasticity. This allows us to quantitatively translate the predicted regional climate effects of ENSO on hydrologic response. Our presentation will use data for the Little Colorado as an example to demonstrate the procedure and produce preliminary results.

Hydrological projections of climate change scenarios over the 3H region of China: A VIC model assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Li; Ji, Jinjun; Xie, Zhenghui; Chen, Feng; Wen, Gang; Richey, Jeffrey E.

2012-06-01

To examine the potential sensitivity of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H) region of China to potential changes in future precipitation and temperature, a hydrological evaluation using the VIC hydrological model under different climate scenarios was carried out. The broader perspective is providing a scientific background for the adaptation in water resource management and rural development to climate change. Twelve climate scenarios were designed to account for possible variations in the future with respect to the baseline of historic climate patterns. Results from the six representative types of climate scenarios (+2°C and +5°C warming, and 0%, +15%, -15% change in precipitation) show that rising temperatures for normal precipitation and for wet scenarios (+15% precipitation) yield greater increased evapotranspiration in the south than in the north, which is confirmed by the remaining six scenarios described below. For a 15% change in precipitation, the largest increase or decrease of evapotranspiration occurs between 33 and 36°N and west of 118°E, a region where evapotranspiration is sensitive to precipitation variation and is affected by the amount of water available for evaporation. Rising temperatures can lead to a south-to-north decreasing gradient of surface runoff. The six scenarios yield a large variation of runoff in the southern end of the 3H, which means that this zone is sensitive to climate change through surface runoff change. The Jiangsu province in the southeastern part of the 3H region shows an obvious sensitivity in soil moisture to climate change. On a regional mean scale, the hydrological change induced by the increasing precipitation from 15% to 30% is more obvious than that induced by greater warming of +5°C relative to +2°C. These simulations identify key regions of sensitivity in hydrological variation to climate change in the provinces of 3H, which can be used as guides in implementing adaptation.

Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

2016-04-01

The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236

Improving Permafrost Hydrology Prediction Through Data-Model Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, C. J.; Andresen, C. G.; Atchley, A. L.; Bolton, W. R.; Busey, R.; Coon, E.; Charsley-Groffman, L.

2017-12-01

The CMIP5 Earth System Models were unable to adequately predict the fate of the 16GT of permafrost carbon in a warming climate due to poor representation of Arctic ecosystem processes. The DOE Office of Science Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic project aims to reduce uncertainty in the Arctic carbon cycle and its impact on the Earth's climate system by improved representation of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes that drive how much buried carbon will be converted to CO2 and CH4, how fast this will happen, which form will dominate, and the degree to which increased plant productivity will offset increased soil carbon emissions. These processes fundamentally depend on permafrost thaw rate and its influence on surface and subsurface hydrology through thermal erosion, land subsidence and changes to groundwater flow pathways as soil, bedrock and alluvial pore ice and massive ground ice melts. LANL and its NGEE colleagues are co-developing data and models to better understand controls on permafrost degradation and improve prediction of the evolution of permafrost and its impact on Arctic hydrology. The LANL Advanced Terrestrial Simulator was built using a state of the art HPC software framework to enable the first fully coupled 3-dimensional surface-subsurface thermal-hydrology and land surface deformation simulations to simulate the evolution of the physical Arctic environment. Here we show how field data including hydrology, snow, vegetation, geochemistry and soil properties, are informing the development and application of the ATS to improve understanding of controls on permafrost stability and permafrost hydrology. The ATS is being used to inform parameterizations of complex coupled physical, ecological and biogeochemical processes for implementation in the DOE ACME land model, to better predict the role of changing Arctic hydrology on the global climate system. LA-UR-17-26566.

Development of Representative Rainfall Periods for Green Infrastructure Design: Connecting the Dots Between Climate, Urban Hydrology and Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albright, C. M.; Traver, R.; Wadzuk, B.

2017-12-01

Analysis of local-to-regional climate data is critical in understanding how changing patterns in rainfall and other atmospheric conditions can affect urban hydrology. Urbanization has caused hydrologic and ecologic modifications to our land surfaces, and altered the dynamics of urban water cycle in complex ways. Green infrastructure (GI) systems, in their simplest form, reduce runoff and flooding, prevent combined sewer overflows and improve quality of receiving waters. However, when viewed through a more holistic lens, GI systems sit at the nexus of hydrology, climate and energy, yet are rarely designed to account for the impacts of these intersections. We must assess urban hydrologic systems beyond their response to a single event or design storm, incorporating multiple temporal scales and all hydrologic processes. This is of utmost importance to design and characterization of urban GI systems because the resilience of these systems will be dictated by their ability to adapt to future behavior of extreme weather patterns and climate. In this study, we characterize long-term hydrologic conditions in Philadelphia to identify periods of record that are most representative of regional climate characteristics, including a representative rainfall year and longer representative periods. Utility of these datasets will be demonstrated by showing that GI systems are able to sustain effective performance for most expected annual precipitation events. Connections between atmospheric (precipitation and temperature) patterns, GI systems and potential removal mechanisms in the urban hydrologic cycle will be presented for Philadelphia and cities with similar climate characteristics. Establishing such connections is critically needed to not only validate what is already known about urban GI, but more importantly, to advance theory and practice by linking the hydrologic benefits of urban GI to broader concepts such as risk, mitigation of extreme events and sustainable communities.

Using a coupled groundwater/surfacewater model to predict climate-change impacts to lakes in the Trout Lake watershed, Northern Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.; Hunt, Randall J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Doherty, John

2009-01-01

A major focus of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Trout Lake Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) project is the development of a watershed model to allow predictions of hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. The coupled groundwater/surface-water model GSFLOW was chosen for this purpose because it could easily incorporate an existing groundwater flow model and it provides for simulation of surface-water processes. The Trout Lake watershed in northern Wisconsin is underlain by a highly conductive outwash sand aquifer. In this area, streamflow is dominated by groundwater contributions; however, surface runoff occurs during intense rainfall periods and spring snowmelt. Surface runoff also occurs locally near stream/lake areas where the unsaturated zone is thin. A diverse data set, collected from 1992 to 2007 for the Trout Lake WEBB project and the co-located and NSF-funded North Temperate Lakes LTER project, includes snowpack, solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, lake levels, groundwater levels, and streamflow. The timeseries processing software TSPROC (Doherty 2003) was used to distill the large time series data set to a smaller set of observations and summary statistics that captured the salient hydrologic information. The timeseries processing reduced hundreds of thousands of observations to less than 5,000. Model calibration included specific predictions for several lakes in the study area using the PEST parameter estimation suite of software (Doherty 2007). The calibrated model was used to simulate the hydrologic response in the study lakes to a variety of climate change scenarios culled from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Solomon et al. 2007). Results from the simulations indicate climate change could result in substantial changes to the lake levels and components of the hydrologic budget of a seepage lake in the flow system. For a drainage lake lower in the flow system, the impacts of climate change are diminished. 

Evaluation of Water Quality Change of Brackish Lake in Snowy Cold Regions Accompanying Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, K.; Hasegawa, H.; Nakatsugawa, M.

2017-12-01

This study addresses evaluation of water quality change of brackish lake based on the estimation of hydrological quantities resulting from long-term hydrologic process accompanying climate change. For brackish lakes, such as Lake Abashiri in Eastern Hokkaido, there are concerns about water quality deterioration due to increases in water temperature and salinity. For estimating some hydrological quantities in the Abashiri River basin, including Lake Abashiri, we propose the following methods: 1) MRI-NHRCM20, a regional climate model based on the Representative Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC AR5, 2) generalized extreme value distribution for correcting bias, 3) kriging adopted variogram for downscaling and 4) Long term Hydrologic Assessment model considering Snow process (LoHAS). In addition, we calculate the discharge from Abashiri River into Lake Abashiri by using estimated hydrological quantities and a tank model, and simulate impacts on water quality of Lake Abashiri due to climate change by setting necessary conditions, including the initial conditions of water temperature and water quality, the pollution load from the inflow rivers, the duration of ice cover and salt pale boundary. The result of the simulation of water quality indicates that climate change is expected to raise the water temperature of the lake surface by approximately 4°C and increase salinity of surface of the lake by approximately 4psu, also if salt pale boundary in the lake raises by approximately 2-m, the concentration of COD, T-N and T-P in the bottom of the lake might increase. The processes leading to these results are likely to be as follows: increased river water flows in along salt pale boundary in lake, causing dynamic flow of surface water; saline bottom water is entrained upward, where it mixes with surface water; and the shear force acting at salt pale boundary helps to increase the supply of salts from bottom saline water to the surface water. In the future, we will conduct similar simulations for a larger area that includes the mouth of Abashiri River. The accuracy of flow field simulation for Lake Abashiri will increase when calculations incorporate the effects of climate change on tide level, water temperature and salinity at the river mouth.

Identification of temporal patterns of long-term hydrological signals in Lower Mississippi River Basin using wavelet analysis

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang

2016-01-01

Estimates of surface hydrological characteristics in watershed ecosystems are essential to climate change assessment, water supply planning, water quality protection, ecological restoration, and water resources management.

Impacts of Climate Change and Land use Changes on Land Surface Radiation and Energy Budgets

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land surface radiation and energy budgets are critical to address a variety of scientific and application issues related to climate trends, weather predictions, hydrologic and biogeophysical modeling, and the monitoring of ecosystem health and agricultural crops. This is an introductory paper to t...

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.: Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation, and use the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous US in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite themore » uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.« less

The power of runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wörman, A.; Lindström, G.; Riml, J.

2017-05-01

Although the potential energy of surface water is a small part of Earth's energy budget, this highly variable physical property is a key component in the terrestrial hydrologic cycle empowering geomorphological and hydrological processes throughout the hydrosphere. By downscaling of the daily hydrometeorological data acquired in Sweden over the last half-century this study quantifies the spatial and temporal distribution of the dominating energy components in terrestrial hydrology, including the frictional resistance in surface water and groundwater as well as hydropower. The energy consumed in groundwater circulation was found to be 34.6 TWh/y or a heat production of approximately 13% of the geothermal heat flux. Significant climate driven, periodic fluctuations in the power of runoff, stream flows and groundwater circulation were revealed that have not previously been documented. We found that the runoff power ranged from 173 to 260 TWh/y even when averaged over the entire surface of Sweden in a five-year moving window. We separated short-term fluctuations in runoff due to precipitation filtered through the watershed from longer-term seasonal and climate driven modes. Strong climate driven correlations between the power of runoff and climate indices, wind and solar intensity were found over periods of 3.6 and 8 years. The high covariance that we found between the potential energy of surface water and wind energy implies significant challenges for the combination of these renewable energy sources.

Will the Arctic Land Surface become Wetter or Drier in Response to a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.; Rawlins, M.; Serreze, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Walsh, J. E.

2015-12-01

There is much concern about a potentially "accelerated" hydrologic cycle, with associated extremes in weather and climate-related phenomena. Whether this translates into wetter or drier conditions across arctic landscapes remains an open question. Arctic ecosystems differ substantially from those in temperate regions, largely due to the interactions of extremes in climate and land surface characteristics. Ice-rich permafrost prevents percolation of rainfall or snowmelt water, often maintaining a moist to saturated active layer where the permafrost table is shallow. Permafrost may also block the lateral movement of groundwater, and act as a confining unit for water in sub- or intra-permafrost aquifers. However, as permafrost degrades, profound changes in interactions between groundwater and surface water occur that affect the partitioning among the water balance components with subsequent impacts to the surface energy balance and essential ecosystem processes. Most simulations of arctic climate project sustained increases in temperature and gradual increases in precipitation over the 21st century. However, most climatic models do not correctly represent the essential controls that permafrost exerts on hydrological, ecological, and climatological processes. If warming continues as projected, we expect large-scale changes in surface hydrology as permafrost degrades. Where groundwater gradients are downward (i.e. surface water will infiltrate to subsurface groundwater), as in most cases, we may expect improved drainage and drier soils, which would result in reduced evaporation and transpiration (ET). In some special cases, where the groundwater gradient is upward (as in many wetlands or springs) surface soils may become wetter or inundated as permafrost degrades. Further, since soil moisture is a primary factor controlling ecosystem processes, interactions between ecosystems, GHG emissions, and high-latitude climate must also be considered highly uncertain. These inter-dependent processes will exert primary controls on several important feedback processes and vary across space and time in some as yet, unknown way.

Evaluation of the land surface water budget in NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses using an off-line hydrologic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, Edwin P.; O'Donnell, Greg M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Roads, John O.

2001-08-01

The ability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis (NRA1) and the follow-up NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (NRA2), to reproduce the hydrologic budgets over the Mississippi River basin is evaluated using a macroscale hydrology model. This diagnosis is aided by a relatively unconstrained global climate simulation using the NCEP global spectral model, and a more highly constrained regional climate simulation using the NCEP regional spectral model, both employing the same land surface parameterization (LSP) as the reanalyses. The hydrology model is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which is forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature. It reproduces observed streamflow, and by closure is constrained to balance other terms in the surface water and energy budgets. The VIC-simulated surface fluxes therefore provide a benchmark for evaluating the predictions from the reanalyses and the climate models. The comparisons, conducted for the 10-year period 1988-1997, show the well-known overestimation of summer precipitation in the southeastern Mississippi River basin, a consistent overestimation of evapotranspiration, and an underprediction of snow in NRA1. These biases are generally lower in NRA2, though a large overprediction of snow water equivalent exists. NRA1 is subject to errors in the surface water budget due to nudging of modeled soil moisture to an assumed climatology. The nudging and precipitation bias alone do not explain the consistent overprediction of evapotranspiration throughout the basin. Another source of error is the gravitational drainage term in the NCEP LSP, which produces the majority of the model's reported runoff. This may contribute to an overprediction of persistence of surface water anomalies in much of the basin. Residual evapotranspiration inferred from an atmospheric balance of NRA1, which is more directly related to observed atmospheric variables, matches the VIC prediction much more closely than the coupled models. However, the persistence of the residual evapotranspiration is much less than is predicted by the hydrological model or the climate models.

Coupling a distributed hydrological model with detailed forest structural information for large-scale global change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Huang, Shaochun; Majasalmi, Titta; Bright, Ryan; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Forests are recognized for their decisive effect on landscape water balance with structural forest characteristics as stand density or species composition determining energy partitioning and dominant flow paths. However, spatial and temporal variability in forest structure is often poorly represented in hydrological modeling frameworks, in particular in regional to large scale hydrological modeling and impact analysis. As a common practice, prescribed land cover classes (including different generic forest types) are linked to parameter values derived from literature, or parameters are determined by calibration. While national forest inventory (NFI) data provide comprehensive, detailed information on hydrologically relevant forest characteristics, their potential to inform hydrological simulation over larger spatial domains is rarely exploited. In this study we present a modeling framework that couples the distributed hydrological model HBV with forest structural information derived from the Norwegian NFI and multi-source remote sensing data. The modeling framework, set up for the entire of continental Norway at 1 km spatial resolution, is explicitly designed to study the combined and isolated impacts of climate change, forest management and land use change on hydrological fluxes. We use a forest classification system based on forest structure rather than biomes which allows to implicitly account for impacts of forest management on forest structural attributes. In the hydrological model, different forest classes are represented by three parameters: leaf area index (LAI), mean tree height and surface albedo. Seasonal cycles of LAI and surface albedo are dynamically simulated to make the framework applicable under climate change conditions. Based on a hindcast for the pilot regions Nord-Trøndelag and Sør-Trøndelag, we show how forest management has affected regional hydrological fluxes during the second half of the 20th century as contrasted to climate variability.

Influence of climate variability on terrestrial hydrology in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ji

A large-area basin-scale (LABs) model is developed for regional, continental and global hydrologic studies. The heterogeneity in the soil-moisture distribution within a basin is parameterized through the statistical moments of the probability distribution function of the topographic (wetness) index. The role of topographic influence in hydrologic prediction is studied using the LABs model and ISLSCP data for 1987 and 1988 in North America. Improvement in the terrestrial water balance and streamflow is observed due to improvements in the surface runoff and baseflow components achieved by incorporating the basin topographic features. These enhancements also impact the surface energy balance, Daily streamflow observations of the Mississippi river and its four tributaries are used for evaluating the LABs performance. It is observed that model baseflow has a significant contribution to the streamflow and is important in realistically capturing the seasonal and annual cycles. To study the impacts of climate variations on the terrestrial hydrologic processes, ERA-15 dataset (1979-1993) is used to drive LABs for all basins over North America. The anomalies of the model forcing and output are correlated with climate anomalies, such as ENSO, NAO and PNA. It is found that the terrestrial hydrology has a delayed response to the ENSO signal, as compared to the precipitation, and the delay may range from a month to a season or longer. The soil moisture storage plays a very vital role in delaying the effects of the climate variability on the terrestrial hydrology and in extending the influences of the El Niña and La Niña events. The fluctuation of the soil temperature anomaly is correlated with ENSO in certain geographic regions, and the strength and the associated time lag of this correlation increase with increasing soil depth. In addition, the NAO and PNA correlations with downward longwave radiation, surface temperature and ground heat flux in North America show a seesaw (or wavelike) spatial pattern.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

2013-04-01

Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations showed some unexpected results, where climate models predicting the largest increase in net precipitation did not result in the largest increase in groundwater heads. This was found to be the result of different initial conditions (1990 - 2010) for the various climate models. In some areas a combination of a high initial groundwater head and an increase in precipitation towards 2021 - 2050 resulted in a groundwater head raise that reached the drainage or the surface water system. This will increase the exchange from the groundwater to the surface water system, but reduce the raise in groundwater heads. An alternative climate model, with a lower initial head can thus predict a higher increase in the groundwater head, although the increase in precipitation is lower. This illustrates an extra dimension in the uncertainty assessment, namely the climate models capability of simulating the current climatic conditions in a way that can reproduce the observed hydrological response. Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L, Stisen, S, et al. (2012) Stakeholder driven update and improvement of a national water resources model - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815212002423 Seaby, LP, Refsgaard, JC, Sonnenborg, TO, et al. (2012) Assessment of robustness and significance of climate change signals for an ensemble of distribution-based scaled climate projections (submitted) Journal of Hydrology Stisen, S, Højberg, AL, Troldborg, L et al., (2012): On the importance of appropriate rain-gauge catch correction for hydrological modelling at mid to high latitudes - http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/16/4157/2012/

US FRESHWATER RESOURCES IN THE COMING DECADES: AN INTEGRATED CLIMATE-HYDROLOGIC MODELING STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

The outcome is a dynamically and nationally consistent assessment of the range of potential changes in the hydrologic states (snow, soil moisture, groundwater level, river flow, wetland extent) and fluxes (precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, water table recha...

Real Time Land-Surface Hydrologic Modeling Over Continental US

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houser, Paul R.

1998-01-01

The land surface component of the hydrological cycle is fundamental to the overall functioning of the atmospheric and climate processes. Spatially and temporally variable rainfall and available energy, combined with land surface heterogeneity cause complex variations in all processes related to surface hydrology. The characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of water and energy cycles are critical to improve our understanding of land surface-atmosphere interaction and the impact of land surface processes on climate extremes. Because the accurate knowledge of these processes and their variability is important for climate predictions, most Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) centers have incorporated land surface schemes in their models. However, errors in the NWP forcing accumulate in the surface and energy stores, leading to incorrect surface water and energy partitioning and related processes. This has motivated the NWP to impose ad hoc corrections to the land surface states to prevent this drift. A proposed methodology is to develop Land Data Assimilation schemes (LDAS), which are uncoupled models forced with observations, and not affected by NWP forcing biases. The proposed research is being implemented as a real time operation using an existing Surface Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (SVATS) model at a 40 km degree resolution across the United States to evaluate these critical science questions. The model will be forced with real time output from numerical prediction models, satellite data, and radar precipitation measurements. Model parameters will be derived from the existing GIS vegetation and soil coverages. The model results will be aggregated to various scales to assess water and energy balances and these will be validated with various in-situ observations.

A Local Forecast of Land Surface Wetness Conditions, Drought, and St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission Derived from Seasonal Climate Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaman, J.; Stieglitz, M.; Zebiak, S.; Cane, M.; Day, J. F.

2002-12-01

We present an ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction. Three- month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at a Florida and New York site. Forecast skill was assessed for mean area modeled water table depth (WTD), i.e. near surface soil wetness conditions, and compared with WTD simulated with observed data. Hydrology model forecast skill was evident at the Florida site but not at the New York site. At the Florida site, persistence of hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast contributed to the local hydrologic forecast skill. This forecast will permit probabilistic prediction of future hydrologic conditions. At the Florida site, we have also quantified the link between modeled WTD (i.e. drought) and the amplification and transmission of St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV). We derive an empirical relationship between modeled land surface wetness and levels of SLEV transmission associated with human clinical cases. We then combine the seasonal forecasts of local, modeled WTD with this empirical relationship and produce retrospective probabilistic seasonal forecasts of epidemic SLEV transmission in Florida. Epidemic SLEV transmission forecast skill is demonstrated. These findings will permit real-time forecast of drought and resultant SLEV transmission in Florida.

Modelling past hydrology of an interfluve area in the Campine region (NE Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, Bertrand; Beerten, Koen; Gedeon, Matej; Vandersteen, Katrijn

2015-04-01

This study aims at hydrological model verification of a small lowland interfluve area (18.6 km²) in NE Belgium, for conditions that are different than today. We compare the current state with five reference periods in the past (AD 1500, 1770, 1854, 1909 and 1961) representing important stages of landscape evolution in the study area. Historical information and proxy data are used to derive conceptual model features and boundary conditions specific to each period: topography, surface water geometry (canal, drains and lakes), land use, soils, vegetation and climate. The influence of landscape evolution on the hydrological cycle is assessed using numerical simulations of a coupled unsaturated zone - groundwater model (HYDRUS-MODFLOW). The induced hydrological changes are assessed in terms of groundwater level, recharge, evapotranspiration, and surface water discharge. HYDRUS-MODFLOW coupling allows including important processes such as the groundwater contribution to evapotranspiration. Major land use change occurred between AD 1854 and 1909, with about 41% of the study area being converted from heath to coniferous forest, together with the development of a drainage network. Results show that this led to a significant decrease of groundwater recharge and lowering of the groundwater table. A limitation of the study lies in the comparison of simulated past hydrology with appropriate palaeo-records. Examples are given as how some indicators (groundwater head, swamp zones) can be used to tend to model validation. Quantifying the relative impact of land use and climate changes requires running sensitivity simulations where the models using alternative land use are run with the climate forcing of other periods. A few examples of such sensitivity runs are presented in order to compare the influence of land use and climate change on the study area hydrology.

Hydrological modeling of upper Indus Basin and assessment of deltaic ecology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managing water resources is mostly required at watershed scale where the complex hydrology processes and interactions linking land surface, climatic factors and human activities can be studied. Geographical Information System based watershed model; Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied f...

A High Resolution, Integrated Approach to Modeling Climate Change Impacts to a Mountain Headwaters Catchment using ParFlow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pribulick, C. E.; Maxwell, R. M.; Williams, K. H.; Carroll, R. W. H.

2014-12-01

Prediction of environmental response to global climate change is paramount for regions that rely upon snowpack for their dominant water supply. Temperature increases are anticipated to be greater at higher elevations perturbing hydrologic systems that provide water to millions of downstream users. In this study, the relationships between large-scale climatic change and the corresponding small-scale hydrologic processes of mountainous terrain are investigated in the East River headwaters catchment near Gothic, CO. This catchment is emblematic of many others within the upper Colorado River Basin and covers an area of 250 square kilometers, has a topographic relief of 1420 meters, an average elevation of 3266 meters and has varying stream characteristics. This site allows for the examination of the varying effect of climate-induced changes on the hydrologic response of three different characteristic components of the catchment: a steep high-energy mountain system, a medium-grade lower-energy system and a low-grade low-energy meandering floodplain. To capture the surface and subsurface heterogeneity of this headwaters system the basin has been modeled at a 10-meter resolution using ParFlow, a parallel, integrated hydrologic model. Driven by meteorological forcing, ParFlow is able to capture land surface processes and represents surface and subsurface interactions through saturated and variably saturated heterogeneous flow. Data from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), land cover, permeability, geologic and soil maps, and on-site meteorological stations, were prepared, analyzed and input into ParFlow as layers with a grid size comprised of 1403 by 1685 cells to best represent the small-scale, high resolution model domain. Water table depth, soil moisture, soil temperature, snowpack, runoff and local energy budget values provide useful insight into the catchments response to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature projections. In the near term, coupling this watershed model with one describing a diverse suite of subsurface elemental cycling pathways, including carbon and nitrogen, will provide an improved understanding of the response of the subsurface ecosystems to hydrologic transitions induced as a result of global climate change.

The influence of topography on Titan’s atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Faulk, Sean; Mitchell, Jonathan

2017-10-01

Titan’s atmospheric circulation is a dominant driver of the global methane hydrologic cycle—producing weather and a seasonal climate cycle—while interactions between the surface and the troposphere strongly constrain regional climates, and contribute to the differentiation between Titan’s low latitude deserts and high latitude lake districts. Yet the influence of surface topography on the atmospheric circulation has only been studied in a few instances, and no published work has investigated the coupling between topographical forcing and Titan’s hydrologic cycle. In this work, we examine the impacts of global topography in the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which includes a robust representation of the methane cycle. We focus in particular on the influence of large-scale topographical features on the atmospheric flow, atmospheric moisture transport, and cloud formation. High latitude transient weather systems have previously been identified as important contributors to global atmospheric methane transport, and here we examine whether topographically-forced stationary or quasi-permanent systems are also important, as they are in Earth’s hydrologic cycle.

The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Kevin D.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1993-01-01

New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

Assessing the impacts of extended drought conditions and global warming on groundwater resources in Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

2013-12-01

Extended drought conditions that affected much of the U.S. throughout 2012 and continued into 2013 are bringing climate change to the forefront of public attention. Long-term effects of an extended dry spell on groundwater is especially concerning as these resources are essential for meeting drinking water demands, supporting agricultural and industrial activities, and maintaining water levels in rivers and lakes. Thus, the impact of extended drought conditions on the entire hydrologic cycle needs to be well understood to guide future resource and land management decisions. This study aims to explore the impact of extended drought conditions on groundwater resources in a representative Iowa watershed using Regional Climate Model scenarios implemented through HydroGeoSphere, a physically-based, surface water-groundwater model. Estimating the impacts of climate changes on groundwater resources requires representation of the full hydrological system, i.e. the connection between the atmospheric and surface-subsurface processes, in a realistic way. In the HydroGeoSphere model, surface and subsurface flow equations are solved simultaneously, and the interdependence of processes like actual evapotranspiration and recharge is handled explicitly. Using such state-of-the-art modeling tools, we seek to address the consequences of changing climate extremes (that have already been experienced and expected to continue over long periods in the future) on the hydrologic cycle of our pilot study area, the South Fork watershed in north-central Iowa. The results will provide a baseline for investigating mitigation strategies in agricultural practices and water use due to changes in the wet and dry cycles of the regional hydrologic cycle.

Estimation of the fractional coverage of rainfall in climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eltahir, E. A. B.; Bras, R. L.

1993-01-01

The fraction of the grid cell area covered by rainfall, mu, is an essential parameter in descriptions of land surface hydrology in climate models. A simple procedure is presented for estimating this fraction, based on extensive observations of storm areas and rainfall volumes. Storm area and rainfall volume are often linearly related; this relation can be used to compute the storm area from the volume of rainfall simulated by a climate model. A formula is developed for computing mu, which describes the dependence of the fractional coverage of rainfall on the season of the year, the geographical region, rainfall volume, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the model. The new formula is applied in computing mu over the Amazon region. Significant temporal variability in the fractional coverage of rainfall is demonstrated. The implications of this variability for the modeling of land surface hydrology in climate models are discussed.

Stream nitrate responses to hydrological forcing and climate change in northern forests of the USA (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, S. D.; Campbell, J. L.; Shanley, J. B.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Driscoll, C. T.; Boyer, E. W.

2009-12-01

There is a need to understand how climate variability and change affect nutrient delivery to surface waters. We analyzed long-term records of hydrochemical data to explore how the forms, concentrations, and loadings of nitrogen in forest streams throughout the northern USA vary with catchment wetness. We considered projected changes in growing season length and precipitation patterns to simulate future climate scenarios and to assess how stream nitrate loading responds to hydrological forcing under different climate change scenarios. At the Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont, model results suggest that stream nutrient loadings over the next century will respond to hydrological forcing during climate change that affects the amount of water that flows through the landscape. For example, growing season stream water yield (+20%) and nitrate loadings (+57%) increase in response to greater amounts of precipitation (+28%) during a warmer climate with a longer growing season (+43 days). We further explore these findings by presenting model results from a biogeochemical process model (PnET-BGC) to separate changes that are due to biogeochemical cycling and the effects of hydrological forcing. Our findings suggest that nitrogen cycling and transport will intensify during anthropogenic climate forcing, thereby affecting the timing and magnitude of annual stream nutrient loadings in northern forests of the USA.

The concept of hydrologic landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, T.C.

2001-01-01

Hydrologic landscapes are multiples or variations of fundamental hydrologic landscape units. A fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is defined on the basis of land-surface form, geology, and climate. The basic land-surface form of a fundamental hydrologic landscape unit is an upland separated from a lowland by an intervening steeper slope. Fundamental hydrologic landscape units have a complete hydrologic system consisting of surface runoff, ground-water flow, and interaction with atmospheric water. By describing actual landscapes in terms of land-surface slope, hydraulic properties of soils and geologic framework, and the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration, the hydrologic system of actual landscapes can be conceptualized in a uniform way. This conceptual framework can then be the foundation for design of studies and data networks, syntheses of information on local to national scales, and comparison of process research across small study units in a variety of settings. The Crow Wing River watershed in central Minnesota is used as an example of evaluating stream discharge in the context of hydrologic landscapes. Lake-research watersheds in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Nebraska are used as an example of using the hydrologic-landscapes concept to evaluate the effect of ground water on the degree of mineralization and major-ion chemistry of lakes that lie within ground-water flow systems.

Large-scale experimental technology with remote sensing in land surface hydrology and meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brutsaert, Wilfried; Schmugge, Thomas J.; Sellers, Piers J.; Hall, Forrest G.

1988-01-01

Two field experiments to study atmospheric and land surface processes and their interactions are summarized. The Hydrologic-Atmospheric Pilot Experiment, which tested techniques for measuring evaporation, soil moisture storage, and runoff at scales of about 100 km, was conducted over a 100 X 100 km area in France from mid-1985 to early 1987. The first International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Program field experiment was conducted in 1987 to develop and use relationships between current satellite measurements and hydrologic, climatic, and biophysical variables at the earth's surface and to validate these relationships with ground truth. This experiment also validated surface parameterization methods for simulation models that describe surface processes from the scale of vegetation leaves up to scales appropriate to satellite remote sensing.

The role of climate change in regulating Arctic permafrost peatland hydrological and vegetation change over the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hui; Piilo, Sanna R.; Amesbury, Matthew J.; Charman, Dan J.; Gallego-Sala, Angela V.; Väliranta, Minna M.

2018-02-01

Climate warming has inevitable impacts on the vegetation and hydrological dynamics of high-latitude permafrost peatlands. These impacts in turn determine the role of these peatlands in the global biogeochemical cycle. Here, we used six active layer peat cores from four permafrost peatlands in Northeast European Russia and Finnish Lapland to investigate permafrost peatland dynamics over the last millennium. Testate amoeba and plant macrofossils were used as proxies for hydrological and vegetation changes. Our results show that during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Russian sites experienced short-term permafrost thawing and this induced alternating dry-wet habitat changes eventually followed by desiccation. During the Little Ice Age (LIA) both sites generally supported dry-hummock habitats, at least partly driven by permafrost aggradation. However, proxy data suggest that occasionally, MCA habitat conditions were drier than during the LIA, implying that evapotranspiration may create important additional eco-hydrological feedback mechanisms under warm conditions. All sites showed a tendency towards dry conditions as inferred from both proxies starting either from ca. 100 years ago or in the past few decades after slight permafrost thawing, suggesting that recent warming has stimulated surface desiccation rather than deeper permafrost thawing. This study shows links between two important controls over hydrology and vegetation changes in high-latitude peatlands: direct temperature-induced surface layer response and deeper permafrost layer-related dynamics. These data provide important backgrounds for predictions of Arctic permafrost peatlands and related feedback mechanisms. Our results highlight the importance of increased evapotranspiration and thus provide an additional perspective to understanding of peatland-climate feedback mechanisms.

Hydrological Drought in the Anthropocene: Impacts of Local Water Extraction and Reservoir Regulation in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Wenhua; Zhao, Jianshi; Li, Hong-Yi; Mishra, Ashok; Ruby Leung, L.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Wang, Wei; Lu, Hui; Deng, Zhiqun; Demissisie, Yonas; Wang, Hao

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from normal hydrologic conditions and is influenced by climate and human activities such as water management. By perturbing the streamflow regime, climate change and water management may significantly alter drought characteristics in the future. Here we utilize a high-resolution integrated modeling framework that represents water management in terms of both local surface water extraction and reservoir regulation and use the Standardized Streamflow Index to quantify hydrological drought. We explore the impacts of water management on hydrological drought over the contiguous U.S. in a warming climate with and without emissions mitigation. Despite the uncertainty of climate change impacts, local surface water extraction consistently intensifies drought that dominates at the regional to national scale. However, reservoir regulation alleviates drought by enhancing summer flow downstream of reservoirs. The relative dominance of drought intensification or relief is largely determined by the water demand, with drought intensification dominating in regions with intense water demand such as the Great Plains and California, while drought relief dominates in regions with low water demand. At the national level, water management increases the spatial extent of extreme drought despite some alleviations of moderate to severe drought. In an emissions mitigation scenario with increased irrigation demand for bioenergy production, water management intensifies drought more than the business-as-usual scenario at the national level, so the impacts of emissions mitigation must be evaluated by considering its benefit in reducing warming and evapotranspiration against its effects on increasing water demand and intensifying drought.

Jump-Diffusion models and structural changes for asset forecasting in hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tranquille Temgoua, André Guy; Martel, Richard; Chang, Philippe J. J.; Rivera, Alfonso

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on surface water and groundwater are of concern in many regions of the world since water is an essential natural resource. Jump-Diffusion models are generally used in economics and other related fields but not in hydrology. The potential application could be made for hydrologic data series analysis and forecast. The present study uses Jump-Diffusion models by adding structural changes to detect fluctuations in hydrologic processes in relationship with climate change. The model implicitly assumes that modifications in rivers' flowrates can be divided into three categories: (a) normal changes due to irregular precipitation events especially in tropical regions causing major disturbance in hydrologic processes (this component is modelled by a discrete Brownian motion); (b) abnormal, sudden and non-persistent modifications in hydrologic proceedings are handled by Poisson processes; (c) the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations characterized by structural changes in hydrological data related to climate variability. The objective of this paper is to add structural changes in diffusion models with jumps, in order to capture the persistence of hydrologic fluctuations. Indirectly, the idea is to observe if there are structural changes of discharge/recharge over the study area, and to find an efficient and flexible model able of capturing a wide variety of hydrologic processes. Structural changes in hydrological data are estimated using the method of nonlinear discrete filters via Method of Simulated Moments (MSM). An application is given using sensitive parameters such as baseflow index and recession coefficient to capture discharge/recharge. Historical dataset are examined by the Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) to detect real time and random perturbations in hydrologic processes. The application of the method allows establishing more accurate hydrologic parameters. The impact of this study is perceptible in forecasting floods and groundwater recession. Keywords: hydrologic processes, Jump-Diffusion models, structural changes, forecast, climate change

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, Bjorn H.

2017-04-01

As the global surface temperature changes, so will patterns and rates of precipitation. Theoretically, these changes can be understood in terms of changes to the energy balance of the atmosphere, caused by introducing drivers of climate change such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and altered insolation. Climate models, however, disagree strongly in their prediction of precipitation changes, both for historical and future emission pathways, and per degree of surface warming in idealized experiments. The latter value, often termed the apparent hydrological sensitivity, has also been found to differ substantially between climate drivers. Here, we present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from 10 climate models participating in the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3 % per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5 %/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2 %/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. Convective precipitation in the Arctic and large scale precipitation around the Equator are found to be topics where further model investigations and observational constraints may provide rapid improvements to modelling of the precipitation response to future, CO2 dominated climate change.

The paleohydrology of unsaturated and saturated zones at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and vicinity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paces, James B.; Whelan, Joseph F.; Stuckless, John S.

2012-01-01

Surface, unsaturated-zone, and saturated-zone hydrologic conditions at Yucca Mountain responded to past climate variations and are at least partly preserved by sediment, fossil, and mineral records. Characterizing past hydrologic conditions in surface and subsurface environments helps to constrain hydrologic responses expected under future climate conditions and improve predictions of repository performance. Furthermore, these records provide a better understanding of hydrologic processes that operate at time scales not readily measured by other means. Pleistocene climates in southern Nevada were predominantly wetter and colder than the current interglacial period. Cyclic episodes of aggradation and incision in Fortymile Wash, which drains the eastern slope of Yucca Mountain, are closely linked to Pleistocene climate cycles. Formation of pedogenic cement is favored under wetter Pleistocene climates, consistent with increased soil moisture and vegetation, higher chemical solubility, and greater evapotranspiration relative to Holocene soil conditions. The distribution and geochemistry of secondary minerals in subsurface fractures and cavities reflect unsaturated-zone hydrologic conditions and the response of the hydrogeologic system to changes in temperature and percolation flux over the last 12.8 m.y. Physical and fluid-inclusion evidence indicates that secondary calcite and opal formed in air-filled cavities from fluids percolating downward through connected fracture pathways in the unsaturated zone. Oxygen, strontium, and carbon isotope data from calcite are consistent with a descending meteoric water source but also indicate that water compositions and temperatures evolved through time. Geochronological data indicate that secondary mineral growth rates are less than 1–5 mm/m.y., and have remained approximately uniform over the last 10 m.y. or longer. These data are interpreted as evidence for hydrological stability despite large differences in surface moisture caused by climate shifts between the Miocene and Pleistocene and between Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles. Secondary mineral distribution and δ18O profiles indicate that evaporation in the shallower welded tuffs reduces infiltration fluxes. Several near-surface and subsurface processes likely are responsible for diverting or dampening infiltration and percolation, resulting in buffering of percolation fluxes to the deeper unsaturated zone. Cooler and wetter Pleistocene climates resulted in increased recharge in upland areas and higher water tables at Yucca Mountain and throughout the region. Discharge deposits in the Amargosa Desert were active during glacial periods, but only in areas where the modern water table is within 7–30 m of the surface. Published groundwater models simulate water-table rises beneath Yucca Mountain of as much as 150 m during glacial climates. However, most evidence from Fortymile Canyon up gradient from Yucca Mountain limits water-table rises to 30 m or less, which is consistent with evidence from discharge sites in the Amargosa Desert. The isotopic compositions of uranium in tuffs spanning the water table in two Yucca Mountain boreholes indicate that Pleistocene water-table rises likely were restricted to 25–50 m above modern positions and are in approximate agreement with water-table rises estimated from zeolitic-to-vitric transitions in the Yucca Mountain tuffs (less than 60 m in the last 11.6 m.y.).

Preface: Subsurface, surface and atmospheric processes in cold regions hydrology

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This special section presents papers from three sessions at the 24th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), held in Perugia, Italy, in July 2007: ‘Interactions between snow, vegetation and the atmosphere’, ‘Hydrology in mountain regions’ and ‘Climate-permafrost...

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

2018-06-01

Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

Uncertainty Analysis of Runoff Simulations and Parameter Identifiability in the Community Land Model – Evidence from MOPEX Basins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Maoyi; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2013-12-01

With the emergence of earth system models as important tools for understanding and predicting climate change and implications to mitigation and adaptation, it has become increasingly important to assess the fidelity of the land component within earth system models to capture realistic hydrological processes and their response to the changing climate and quantify the associated uncertainties. This study investigates the sensitivity of runoff simulations to major hydrologic parameters in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4) by integrating CLM4 with a stochastic exploratory sensitivity analysis framework at 20 selected watersheds from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) spanning amore » wide range of climate and site conditions. We found that for runoff simulations, the most significant parameters are those related to the subsurface runoff parameterizations. Soil texture related parameters and surface runoff parameters are of secondary significance. Moreover, climate and soil conditions play important roles in the parameter sensitivity. In general, site conditions within water-limited hydrologic regimes and with finer soil texture result in stronger sensitivity of output variables, such as runoff and its surface and subsurface components, to the input parameters in CLM4. This study demonstrated the feasibility of parameter inversion for CLM4 using streamflow observations to improve runoff simulations. By ranking the significance of the input parameters, we showed that the parameter set dimensionality could be reduced for CLM4 parameter calibration under different hydrologic and climatic regimes so that the inverse problem is less ill posed.« less

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, R. M.; Condon, L. E.

2015-12-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Assess Climate Change's Impact on Coastal Rivers using a Coupled Climate-Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Z. G.; Gochis, D.; Yu, W.; Zang, Z.; Sampson, K. M.; Keim, B. D.

2016-12-01

In this study we present a coupled climate-hydrological model reproducing the water cycle of three coastal river basins along the northern Gulf of Mexico for the past three decades (1985-2014). Model simulated climate condition, surface physics, and streamflow were well validated against in situ data and satellite-derived products, giving us the confidence that the newly developed WRF-Hydro model can be a robust tool for evaluating climate change's impact on hydrological regime. Trend analysis of model simulated monthly and annual time series indicates that local climate is getting hotter and dryer, specifically during the growing season. Wavelet analysis reveals that local evapotranspiration is strongly correlated with temperature, while soil moisture, water surplus, and streamflow are coupled with precipitation. In addition, local climate is closely correlated with large-scale climate dynamics such as AMO and ENSO. A possible change-point is detected around year 2004, after which, the monthly precipitation decreased by 14.2%, evapotranspiration increased by 2.9%, and water surplus decreased by 36.5%. The implication of the difference between the water surplus (runoff) calculated using the classic Thornthwaite method and river discharge estimated using streamflow records to the coastal environment is also discussed.

Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

2018-03-01

Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

Comprehensive Representation of Hydrologic and Geomorphic Process Coupling in Numerical Models: Internal Dynamics and Basin Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, E.; Vivoni, E. R.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Bras, R. L.

2005-12-01

Landscape morphology has an important control on the spatial and temporal organization of basin hydrologic response to climate forcing, affecting soil moisture redistribution as well as vegetation function. On the other hand, erosion, driven by hydrology and modulated by vegetation, produces landforms over geologic time scales that reflect characteristic signatures of the dominant land forming process. Responding to extreme climate events or anthropogenic disturbances of the land surface, infrequent but rapid forms of erosion (e.g., arroyo development, landsliding) can modify topography such that basin hydrology is significantly influenced. Despite significant advances in both hydrologic and geomorphic modeling over the past two decades, the dynamic interactions between basin hydrology, geomorphology and terrestrial ecology are not adequately captured in current model frameworks. In order to investigate hydrologic-geomorphic-ecologic interactions at the basin scale we present initial efforts in integrating the CHILD landscape evolution model (Tucker et al. 2001) with the tRIBS hydrology model (Ivanov et al. 2004), both developed in a common software environment. In this talk, we present preliminary results of the numerical modeling of the coupled evolution of basin hydro-geomorphic response and resulting landscape morphology in two sets of examples. First, we discuss the long-term evolution of both the hydrologic response and the resulting basin morphology from an initially uplifted plateau. In the second set of modeling experiments, we implement changes in climate and land-use to an existing topography and compare basin hydrologic response to the model results when landscape form is fixed (e.g. no coupling between hydrology and geomorphology). Model results stress the importance of internal basin dynamics, including runoff generation mechanisms and hydrologic states, in shaping hydrologic response as well as the importance of employing comprehensive conceptualizations of hydrology in modeling landscape evolution.

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanderhoof, Melanie K.; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael G.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

2018-03-01

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985-2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Terrestrial Hydrological Data from NASA's Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC): Products, Services, and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fang, Hongliang; Beaudoing, Hiroko K.; Mocko, David M.; Rodell, Matthew; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce

2010-01-01

Terrestrial hydrological variables are important in global hydrology, climate, and carbon cycle studies. The North American and Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (NLDAS and GLDAS, respectively) have been generating a series of land surface states (soil moisture, snow, and temperature) and fluxes (evapotranspiration, radiation, and heat flux) variables. These data, hosted at and available from NASA s Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), include the NLDAS hourly 1/8 degree products and the GLDAS 3-hourly 0.25 and 1.0 degree products. HDISC provides easy access and visualization and analysis capabilities for these products, thus reducing the time and resources spent by scientists on data management and facilitating hydrological research. Users can perform spatial and parameter subsetting, data format transformation, and data analysis operations without needing to first download the data. HDISC is continually being developed as a data and services portal that supports weather and climate forecasts, and water and energy cycle research.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

A Multi-Scale, Integrated Approach to Representing Watershed Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanov, Valeriy; Kim, Jongho; Fatichi, Simone; Katopodes, Nikolaos

2014-05-01

Understanding and predicting process dynamics across a range of scales are fundamental challenges for basic hydrologic research and practical applications. This is particularly true when larger-spatial-scale processes, such as surface-subsurface flow and precipitation, need to be translated to fine space-time scale dynamics of processes, such as channel hydraulics and sediment transport, that are often of primary interest. Inferring characteristics of fine-scale processes from uncertain coarse-scale climate projection information poses additional challenges. We have developed an integrated model simulating hydrological processes, flow dynamics, erosion, and sediment transport, tRIBS+VEGGIE-FEaST. The model targets to take the advantage of the current generation of wealth of data representing watershed topography, vegetation, soil, and landuse, as well as to explore the hydrological effects of physical factors and their feedback mechanisms over a range of scales. We illustrate how the modeling system connects precipitation-hydrologic runoff partition process to the dynamics of flow, erosion, and sedimentation, and how the soil's substrate condition can impact the latter processes, resulting in a non-unique response. We further illustrate an approach to using downscaled climate change information with a process-based model to infer the moments of hydrologic variables in future climate conditions and explore the impact of climate information uncertainty.

Use of output from high-resolution atmospheric models in landscape-scale hydrologic models: An assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Giorgi, F.

1993-01-01

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of coupling regional climate models (RCMs) with landscape-scale hydrologic models (LSHMs) for studies of the effects of climate on hydrologic systems. The RCM used is the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model (MM4). Output from two year-round simulations (1983 and 1988) over the western United States is used to drive a lake model for Pyramid Lake in Nevada and a streamfiow model for Steamboat Creek in Oregon. Comparisons with observed data indicate that MM4 is able to produce meteorologic data sets that can be used to drive hydrologic models. Results from the lake model simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output produces reasonably good predictions of surface temperature and evaporation. Results from the streamflow simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output results in good simulations of the seasonal cycle of streamflow, but deficiencies in simulated wintertime precipitation resulted in underestimates of streamflow and soil moisture. Further work with climate (multiyear) simulations is necessary to achieve a complete analysis, but the results from this study indicate that coupling of LSHMs and RCMs may be a useful approach for evaluating the effects of climate change on hydrologic systems.

An intermediate-scale model for thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost-affected landscapes

DOE PAGES

Jan, Ahmad; Coon, Ethan T.; Painter, Scott L.; ...

2017-07-10

Integrated surface/subsurface models for simulating the thermal hydrology of permafrost-affected regions in a warming climate have recently become available, but computational demands of those new process-rich simu- lation tools have thus far limited their applications to one-dimensional or small two-dimensional simulations. We present a mixed-dimensional model structure for efficiently simulating surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in low-relief permafrost regions at watershed scales. The approach replaces a full three-dimensional system with a two-dimensional overland thermal hydrology system and a family of one-dimensional vertical columns, where each column represents a fully coupled surface/subsurface thermal hydrology system without lateral flow. The system is then operatormore » split, sequentially updating the overland flow system without sources and the one-dimensional columns without lateral flows. We show that the app- roach is highly scalable, supports subcycling of different processes, and compares well with the corresponding fully three-dimensional representation at significantly less computational cost. Those advances enable recently developed representations of freezing soil physics to be coupled with thermal overland flow and surface energy balance at scales of 100s of meters. Furthermore developed and demonstrated for permafrost thermal hydrology, the mixed-dimensional model structure is applicable to integrated surface/subsurface thermal hydrology in general.« less

Hydrology and soil erosion

Treesearch

Leonard J. Lane; Mary R. Kidwell

2003-01-01

We review research on surface water hydrology and soil erosion at the Santa Rita Experimental Range (SRER). Almost all of the research was associated with eight small experimental watersheds established from 1974 to 1975 and operated until the present. Analysis of climatic features of the SRER supports extending research findings from the SRER to broad areas of the...

A model for the hydrologic and climatic behavior of water on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, Stephen M.

1993-01-01

An analysis is carried out of the hydrologic response of a water-rich Mars to climate change and to the physical and thermal evolution of its crust, with particular attention given to the potential role of the subsurface transport, assuming that the current models of insolation-driven change describe reasonably the atmospheric leg of the planet's long-term hydrologic cycle. Among the items considered are the thermal and hydrologic properties of the crust, the potential distribution of ground ice and ground water, the stability and replenishment of equatorial ground ice, basal melting and the polar mass balance, the thermal evolution of the early cryosphere, the recharge of the valley networks and outflow, and several processes that are likely to drive the large-scale vertical and horizontal transport of H2O within the crust. The results lead to the conclusion that subsurface transport has likely played an important role in the geomorphic evolution of the Martian surface and the long-term cycling of H2O between the atmosphere, polar caps, and near-surface crust.

Modeling land surface hydrology sensitivity in the Colorado River Basin to historical climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitney, K. M.; Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, the Colorado River Basin (CRB) has experienced substantial warming and interannual climate variations, including prolonged drought periods. These patterns are projected to accelerate in the 21st century, with major consequences for water resources in the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. To evaluate future projections appropriately, however, it is important to first quantify the regional hydrologic response to historical climate variability in the CRB. In the current effort, we force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrology model and a river routing model with historical meteorological data to estimate water balance components and naturalized streamflow response in the CRB at 1/16o spatial resolution and at an hourly time step over the period 1950-2013. We utilize data products from satellite remote sensing to specify spatiotemporal variations in vegetation parameters and include an irrigation scheme to account for evapotranspiration from croplands in the CRB. Furthermore, we apply recent modifications in VIC to more properly account for bare soil evaporation in arid and semiarid ecosystems. Analyses of the historical model simulations are focused on quantifying the spatiotemporal variability of the soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow and snowmelt response and their linkages to extreme meteorological events. Here we characterize the annual and monthly distributions, trends, and statistical extremes and central tendencies of water balance terms averaged over the CRB and its sub-basins for the entire study period 1950-2013. By building a model-based hydrologic climatology and catalog of historical extreme events for the CRB, we aim to construct a basis for future activities that analyze the impact of statistically downscaled climate change projections on the hydrology of the CRB and its urban areas.

Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, L.

1994-01-01

A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

Reconstructing the past climate at Gale crater, Mars, from hydrological modeling of late-stage lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horvath, David G.; Andrews-Hanna, Jeffrey C.

2017-08-01

The sedimentary deposits in Gale crater may preserve one of the best records of the early Martian climate during the Late Noachian and Early Hesperian. Surface and orbital observations support the presence of two periods of lake stability in Gale crater—prior to the formation of the sedimentary mound during the Late Noachian and after the formation and erosion of the mound to its present state in the Early Hesperian. Here we use hydrological models and late-stage lake levels at Gale, to reconstruct the climate of Mars after mound formation and erosion to its present state. Using Earth analog climates, we show that the late-stage lakes require wetter interludes characterized by semiarid climates after the transition to arid conditions in the Hesperian. These climates are much wetter than is thought to characterize much of the Hesperian and are more similar to estimates of the Late Noachian climate.

Climatic data for Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire, 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Buso, D.C.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1986-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Mirror lake, (north-central) New Hampshire includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: temperature of lake water surface; dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures; wind speed at 3 levels above the water surface; and solar and atmospheric radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

Limited hydrologic response to Pleistocene climate change in deep vadose zones - Yucca Mountain, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paces, J.B.; Neymark, L.A.; Whelan, J.F.; Wooden, J.L.; Lund, S.P.; Marshall, B.D.

2010-01-01

Understanding the movement of water through thick vadose zones, especially on time scales encompassing long-term climate change, is increasingly important as societies utilize semi-arid environments for both water resources and sites viewed as favorable for long-term disposal or storage of hazardous waste. Hydrologic responses to Pleistocene climate change within a deep vadose zone in the eastern Mojave Desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, were evaluated by uranium-series dating of finely layered hyalitic opal using secondary ion mass spectrometry. Opal is present within cm-thick secondary hydrogenic mineral crusts coating floors of lithophysal cavities in fractured volcanic rocks at depths of 200 to 300 m below land surface. Uranium concentrations in opal fluctuate systematically between 5 and 550 μg/g. Age-calibrated profiles of uranium concentration correlate with regional climate records over the last 300,000 years and produce time-series spectral peaks that have distinct periodicities of 100- and 41-ka, consistent with planetary orbital parameters. These results indicate that the chemical compositions of percolating solutions varied in response to near-surface, climate-driven processes. However, slow (micrometers per thousand years), relatively uniform growth rates of secondary opal and calcite deposition spanning several glacial–interglacial climate cycles imply that water fluxes in the deep vadose zone remained low and generally buffered from the large fluctuations in available surface moisture during different climates.

Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change.

PubMed

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L; Farquhar, Graham D

2018-03-06

There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P ) database (1940-2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Fubao; Roderick, Michael L.; Farquhar, Graham D.

2018-03-01

There is a growing research interest in the detection of changes in hydrologic and climatic time series. Stationarity can be assessed using the autocorrelation function, but this is not yet common practice in hydrology and climate. Here, we use a global land-based gridded annual precipitation (hereafter P) database (1940–2009) and find that the lag 1 autocorrelation coefficient is statistically significant at around 14% of the global land surface, implying nonstationary behavior (90% confidence). In contrast, around 76% of the global land surface shows little or no change, implying stationary behavior. We use these results to assess change in the observed P over the most recent decade of the database. We find that the changes for most (84%) grid boxes are within the plausible bounds of no significant change at the 90% CI. The results emphasize the importance of adequately accounting for natural variability when assessing change.

Liquid water on Mars - an energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffert, M. I.; Callegari, A. J.; Hsieh, T.; Ziegler, W.

1981-07-01

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffert, M. I.; Callegari, A. J.; Hsieh, C. T.; Ziegler, W.

1981-01-01

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Simulations of ecosystem hydrological processes using a unified multi-scale model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Xiaofan; Liu, Chongxuan; Fang, Yilin

2015-01-01

This paper presents a unified multi-scale model (UMSM) that we developed to simulate hydrological processes in an ecosystem containing both surface water and groundwater. The UMSM approach modifies the Navier–Stokes equation by adding a Darcy force term to formulate a single set of equations to describe fluid momentum and uses a generalized equation to describe fluid mass balance. The advantage of the approach is that the single set of the equations can describe hydrological processes in both surface water and groundwater where different models are traditionally required to simulate fluid flow. This feature of the UMSM significantly facilitates modelling ofmore » hydrological processes in ecosystems, especially at locations where soil/sediment may be frequently inundated and drained in response to precipitation, regional hydrological and climate changes. In this paper, the UMSM was benchmarked using WASH123D, a model commonly used for simulating coupled surface water and groundwater flow. Disney Wilderness Preserve (DWP) site at the Kissimmee, Florida, where active field monitoring and measurements are ongoing to understand hydrological and biogeochemical processes, was then used as an example to illustrate the UMSM modelling approach. The simulations results demonstrated that the DWP site is subject to the frequent changes in soil saturation, the geometry and volume of surface water bodies, and groundwater and surface water exchange. All the hydrological phenomena in surface water and groundwater components including inundation and draining, river bank flow, groundwater table change, soil saturation, hydrological interactions between groundwater and surface water, and the migration of surface water and groundwater interfaces can be simultaneously simulated using the UMSM. Overall, the UMSM offers a cross-scale approach that is particularly suitable to simulate coupled surface and ground water flow in ecosystems with strong surface water and groundwater interactions.« less

HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

2016-04-01

Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH-ON (EU FP7 project No 603587) coordinated by SMHI (http://water-switch-on.eu/) and online demo is available at www.gecosistema.com/switchon

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Mars: History of Climate Change and Evolution of the Water Cycle (Runcorn-Florensky Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James W.

2010-05-01

Atmospheric general circulation models are becoming more and more sophisticated and can now be analyzed at various scales, and include variations in atmospheric water vapor content, orbital parameters and surface properties. A wide variety of geological evidence indicates that the climate on Mars has changed during its past history. We are now approaching the time when synergism is developing between studies of the observed geological record and predictions and results of climate models. Geological evidence for climate change ranges in physical scale from layering in the polar caps and sediments, to meters-thick ice-rich layers extending from high to mid-latitudes, to kilometers-thick polar and circumpolar deposits. Clear temporal changes in the mineralogy and alteration style of surface and subsurface materials signal long-term climate change. Evidence is found throughout the geologic record of Mars, ranging from interpreted Amazonian tropical mountain glaciers to much longer term trends implied by the temporal distribution of geological features such as valley networks and outflow channels. Furthermore, there is strong evidence for changes in the hydrological cycle of Mars that reflect long-term climate change. For the last ~80% of its history (the Hesperian and Amazonian) Mars appears to have been a very cold, hyper-arid polar desert, similar to the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. During this time, the hydrologic system on Mars has been horizontally layered, with the near-surface hydrologic cycle involving water movement between the atmosphere, polar caps, the surface and regolith at various latitudes; variations in spin-axis orbital parameters caused significant surface redistribution of ice and dust, and abundant ice has been sequestered beneath glacial debris-cover in the mid-latitudes for several hundred million years. Existing groundwater is sequestered below a globally continuous cryosphere; liquid water occasionally emerged to the surface during magmatic events that cracked or melted the cryosphere, forming outlet channels. In contrast, many believe that Mars was "warm and wet" during the first 20% of its history (the Noachian); in this scenario, there was no global cryosphere, and the hydrological cycle was vertically integrated. Geological evidence for this includes extensive valley network systems, hundreds of closed-basin and open-basin lakes, depositional fans and deltas, and integrated systems that extend for thousands of kilometers across the surface. Major outstanding questions include the causes and the duration of these more clement conditions in the Noachian, whether they led to the formation and evolution of life, why they changed in the late Noachian-Hesperian, the duration of the change, how the climate stabilized to its current state, whether any early-evolving life could survive this transition, and if so, where such life might reside today. The questions raised by the long-term climate history of Mars provide a compelling framework for future robotic and human exploration.

Exploring the linkage between drought, high temperatures, and hydrologic sensitivities: A case study of the 2012 Great Plains drought.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Livneh, B.; Hoerling, M. P.

2014-12-01

The occurrence of drought is associated with agricultural loss, water supply shortfalls, and other economic impacts. Here we explore the physical relationships between precipitation deficits, high temperatures, and hydrologic responses as a pathway to better anticipate drought impacts. Current methodologies to predict hydrologic scarcity include local monitoring of river flows, remote sensing of land-surface wetness, drought indices, expert judgment, climate indices (e.g. SST-relationships) and the application of hydrologic models. At longer lead times, predictions of drought have most frequently been made on the basis of GCM ensembles, with subsequent downscaling of those to scales over which hydrologic predictions can be made. This study focuses on two important aspects of drought. First, we explore the causal hydro-climatic timeline of a drought event, namely (a) the lack of precipitation, which serves to reduce soil moisture and produce (b) a skewed Bowen ratio, i.e. comparatively more sensible heating (warming) with less ET, resulting in (c) anomalously warm conditions. We seek to assess the extent to which the lack of precipitation contributes to warming temperatures, and the further effects of that warming on hydrology and the severity of drought impacts. An ensemble of GCM simulations will be used to explore the evolution of the land surface energy budget during a recent Great Plains drought event, which will subsequently be used to drive a hydrologic model. Second, we examine the impacts of the critical assumptions relating climatic variables with water demand, specifically the relationship between potential evapotranspiration (PET) and temperature. The common oversimplification in relating PET to temperature is explored against a more physically consistent energy balance estimate of PET, using the Penman-Monteith approach and the hydrologic impacts are presented. Results from this work are anticipated to have broad relevance for future water management and planning, to better characterize drought impacts.

Global optimum vegetation rain water use is determined by aridity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, S. P.; Wang, L.; Caylor, K. K.

2015-12-01

The amount of rainwater that vegetation is able to transpire directly determines the total productivity of ecosystems, yet broad-scale trends in this sub-component of total evapotranspiration remain unclear. Since development in the 1970's, the Budyko framework has provided a simple, first-order, approach to partitioning total rainfall into runoff and evapotranspiration across climates. However, this classic paradigm provides little insight into the strength of biological mediation (i.e. transpiration flux) of the hydrologic cycle. Through a minimalist stochastic hydrology model we analytically extend the classical Budyko framework to predict the magnitude of transpiration relative to total rainfall as a function of ecosystem aridity. Consistent with a synthesis of experimental partitioning studies across climates, this model suggests a peak in the biological contribution to the hydrologic cycle at intermediate moisture values, with both arid and wet climates seeing decreased transpiration:precipitation ratios. To best match observed transpiration:precipitation ratios requires incorporation of elevated evaporation at lower canopy covers due to greater energy availability at the soil surface and elevated evaporation at higher canopy covers due to greater interception amounts. This new approach provides a connection between current and future climate regimes, hydrologic flux partitioning, and macro-system ecology.

Perspectives on Hydro-Climatic Change in Rivers Sourced From the Khangai Mountains, Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Tumenjargal, S.; Batbuyan, B.; Odgarav, J.; Sukhbataar, J.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Adyabadam, G.

2012-12-01

Patterns of pastoralism have shaped the Mongolian countryside throughout history. These patterns are largely dictated by seasonal and extreme climate and water conditions. While change has always been a part of the traditional herder lifestyle, the magnitude and variety of impacts imposed by natural and human-induced changes in the last few decades has increased, negatively affecting the coupled natural-human systems of Mongolia. Regional hydrologic impacts from increased mining, irrigation, urbanization, and climate change are challenging to measure and model due to sparse and relatively short meteorological and hydrological records. Characterization of the variability inherent in Mongolian hydrological systems in the international literature remains limited. To quantify recent changes to these systems, several river basins near the Khangai Mountains were analyzed. These basins adjoin and include community-based managed and non-managed grazing lands under study as part of an ongoing National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems (NSF-CNH) project. Statistically significant increasing temperatures and decreasing streamflows in the study areas support herder's perceptions of hydro-climatic changes and variability. The results of basin characterization combined with water balance modeling and trend analyses illustrate the future potential for further change in these hydro-climatic systems. Alternate land-uses and herder lifestyle modifications may amplify impacts from climatic change. Recent fieldwork also revealed complex surface-groundwater interactions in some areas that may affect model outcomes. Future explorations of longer-term variability through the use of proxies and the development of hydrologic scenarios will place the current basin analyses in context to more fully assess possible impacts to the hydrologic-human systems of Mongolia.

Regional Climate Variability Under Model Simulations of Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, Katherine; Schrag, Daniel P.

2017-11-01

Solar geoengineering has been shown in modeling studies to successfully mitigate global mean surface temperature changes from greenhouse warming. Changes in land surface hydrology are complicated by the direct effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) on vegetation, which alters the flux of water from the land surface to the atmosphere. Here we investigate changes in boreal summer climate variability under solar geoengineering using multiple ensembles of model simulations. We find that spatially uniform solar geoengineering creates a strong meridional gradient in the Northern Hemisphere temperature response, with less consistent patterns in precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture. Using regional summertime temperature and precipitation results across 31-member ensembles, we show a decrease in the frequency of heat waves and consecutive dry days under solar geoengineering relative to a high-CO2 world. However in some regions solar geoengineering of this amount does not completely reduce summer heat extremes relative to present day climate. In western Russia and Siberia, an increase in heat waves is connected to a decrease in surface soil moisture that favors persistent high temperatures. Heat waves decrease in the central United States and the Sahel, while the hydrologic response increases terrestrial water storage. Regional changes in soil moisture exhibit trends over time as the model adjusts to solar geoengineering, particularly in Siberia and the Sahel, leading to robust shifts in climate variance. These results suggest potential benefits and complications of large-scale uniform climate intervention schemes.

Study of hydrological extremes - floods and droughts in global river basins using satellite data and model output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakshmi, V.; Fayne, J.; Bolten, J. D.

2016-12-01

We will use satellite data from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission), AMSR (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer), GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Spectroradiometer) and model output from NASA GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System) to understand the linkages between hydrological variables. These hydrological variables include precipitation soil moisture vegetation index surface temperature ET and total water. We will present results for major river basins such as Amazon, Colorado, Mississippi, California, Danube, Nile, Congo, Yangtze Mekong, Murray-Darling and Ganga-Brahmaputra.The major floods and droughts in these watersheds will be mapped in time and space using the satellite data and model outputs mentioned above. We will analyze the various hydrological variables and conduct a synergistic study during times of flood and droughts. In order to compare hydrological variables between river basins with vastly different climate and land use we construct an index that is scaled by the climatology. This allows us to compare across different climate, topography, soils and land use regimes. The analysis shows that the hydrological variables derived from satellite data and NASA models clearly reflect the hydrological extremes. This is especially true when data from different sensors are analyzed together - for example rainfall data from TRMM and total water data from GRACE. Such analyses will help to construct prediction tools for water resources applications.

Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

Climatic data for Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire : 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, Alex M.; Buso, D.C.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1988-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire, includes a study of evaporation. Those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer evaporation studies are presented, including: water surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, vapor pressure at and above the water surface, wind speed, and short- and long-wave radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

An enhanced archive facilitating climate impacts analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maurer, E.P.; Brekke, L.; Pruitt, T.; Thrasher, B.; Long, J.; Duffy, P.; Dettinger, M.; Cayan, D.; Arnold, J.

2014-01-01

We describe the expansion of a publicly available archive of downscaled climate and hydrology projections for the United States. Those studying or planning to adapt to future climate impacts demand downscaled climate model output for local or regional use. The archive we describe attempts to fulfill this need by providing data in several formats, selectable to meet user needs. Our archive has served as a resource for climate impacts modelers, water managers, educators, and others. Over 1,400 individuals have transferred more than 50 TB of data from the archive. In response to user demands, the archive has expanded from monthly downscaled data to include daily data to facilitate investigations of phenomena sensitive to daily to monthly temperature and precipitation, including extremes in these quantities. New developments include downscaled output from the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations at both the monthly and daily time scales, as well as simulations of surface hydrologi- cal variables. The web interface allows the extraction of individual projections or ensemble statistics for user-defined regions, promoting the rapid assessment of model consensus and uncertainty for future projections of precipitation, temperature, and hydrology. The archive is accessible online (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_ cmip_projections).

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Lins, Harry F.

1989-01-01

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Modelling surface water-groundwater interaction with a conceptual approach: model development and application in New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Zammit, C.; McMillan, H. K.

2016-12-01

As in most countries worldwide, water management in lowland areas is a big concern for New Zealand due to its economic importance for water related human activities. As a result, the estimation of available water resources in these areas (e.g., for irrigation and water supply purpose) is crucial and often requires an understanding of complex hydrological processes, which are often characterized by strong interactions between surface water and groundwater (usually expressed as losing and gaining rivers). These processes are often represented and simulated using integrated physically based hydrological models. However models with physically based groundwater modules typically require large amount of non-readily available geologic and aquifer information and are computationally intensive. Instead, this paper presents a conceptual groundwater model that is fully integrated into New Zealand's national hydrological model TopNet based on TopModel concepts (Beven, 1992). Within this conceptual framework, the integrated model can simulate not only surface processes, but also groundwater processes and surface water-groundwater interaction processes (including groundwater flow, river-groundwater interaction, and groundwater interaction with external watersheds). The developed model was applied to two New Zealand catchments with different hydro-geological and climate characteristics (Pareora catchment in the Canterbury Plains and Grey catchment on the West Coast). Previous studies have documented strong interactions between the river and groundwater, based on the analysis of a large number of concurrent flow measurements and associated information along the river main stem. Application of the integrated hydrological model indicates flow simulation (compared to the original hydrological model conceptualisation) during low flow conditions are significantly improved and further insights on local river dynamics are gained. Due to its conceptual characteristics and low level of data requirement, the integrated model could be used at local and national scales to improve the simulation of hydrological processes in non-topographically driven areas (where groundwater processes are important), and to assess impact of climate change on the integrated hydrological cycle in these areas.

High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

2016-12-01

Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

Seasonal hydrologic responses to climate change in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, Julie A.; Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

2015-04-01

Increased temperatures and changes in precipitation will result in fundamental changes in the seasonal distribution of streamflow in the Pacific Northwest and will have serious implications for water resources management. To better understand local impacts of regional climate change, we conducted model experiments to determine hydrologic sensitivities of annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff to imposed annual and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. We used the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land-surface hydrology model applied at 1/16° latitude-longitude spatial resolution over the Pacific Northwest (PNW), a scale sufficient to support analyses at the hydrologic unit code eight (HUC-8) basin level. These experiments resolve the spatial character of the sensitivity of future water supply to precipitation and temperature changes by identifying the seasons and locations where climate change will have the biggest impact on runoff. The PNW exhibited a diversity of responses, where transitional (intermediate elevation) watersheds experience the greatest seasonal shifts in runoff in response to cool season warming. We also developed a methodology that uses these hydrologic sensitivities as basin-specific transfer functions to estimate future changes in long-term mean monthly hydrographs directly from climate model output of precipitation and temperature. When principles of linearity and superposition apply, these transfer functions can provide feasible first-order estimates of the likely nature of future seasonal streamflow change without performing downscaling and detailed model simulations.

Climatic impact of Amazon deforestation - a mechanistic model study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ning Zeng; Dickinson, R.E.; Xubin Zeng

1996-04-01

Recent general circulation model (GCM) experiments suggest a drastic change in the regional climate, especially the hydrological cycle, after hypothesized Amazon basinwide deforestation. To facilitate the theoretical understanding os such a change, we develop an intermediate-level model for tropical climatology, including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction. The model consists of linearized steady-state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land-surface processes. It generally better simulates tropical climatology and the ENSO anomaly than do many of the previous simple models. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of thismore » model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker-Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is highly sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness length on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals that the balance between convective heating, adiabatic cooling, and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a dry climate. Scaling analysis motivated by our modeling efforts also helps to interpret the common results of many GCM simulations. When a simple mixed-layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1{degrees}C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude depends on the coupling strength. 66 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

An Efficient Approach to Modeling the Topographic Control of Surface Hydrology for Regional and Global Climate Modeling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stieglitz, Marc; Rind, David; Famiglietti, James; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

1997-01-01

The current generation of land-surface models used in GCMs view the soil column as the fundamental hydrologic unit. While this may be effective in simulating such processes as the evolution of ground temperatures and the growth/ablation of a snowpack at the soil plot scale, it effectively ignores the role topography plays in the development of soil moisture heterogeneity and the subsequent impacts of this soil moisture heterogeneity on watershed evapotranspiration and the partitioning of surface fluxes. This view also ignores the role topography plays in the timing of discharge and the partitioning of discharge into surface runoff and baseflow. In this paper an approach to land-surface modeling is presented that allows us to view the watershed as the fundamental hydrologic unit. The analytic form of TOPMODEL equations are incorporated into the soil column framework and the resulting model is used to predict the saturated fraction of the watershed and baseflow in a consistent fashion. Soil moisture heterogeneity represented by saturated lowlands subsequently impacts the partitioning of surface fluxes, including evapotranspiration and runoff. The approach is computationally efficient, allows for a greatly improved simulation of the hydrologic cycle, and is easily coupled into the existing framework of the current generation of single column land-surface models. Because this approach uses the statistics of the topography rather than the details of the topography, it is compatible with the large spatial scales of today's regional and global climate models. Five years of meteorological and hydrological data from the Sleepers River watershed located in the northeastern United States where winter snow cover is significant were used to drive the new model. Site validation data were sufficient to evaluate model performance with regard to various aspects of the watershed water balance, including snowpack growth/ablation, the spring snowmelt hydrograph, storm hydrographs, and the seasonal development of watershed evapotranspiration and soil moisture.

Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willems, Patrick; Batelaan, Okke; Hughes, Denis A.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

2014-01-01

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

The hydrological cycle response to cirrus cloud thinning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kristjánsson, Jón Egill; Muri, Helene; Schmidt, Hauke

2015-12-01

Recent multimodel studies have shown that if one attempts to cancel increasing CO2 concentrations by reducing absorbed solar radiation, the hydrological cycle will weaken if global temperature is kept unchanged. Using a global climate model, we investigate the hydrological cycle response to "cirrus cloud thinning (CCT)," which is a proposed climate engineering technique that seeks to enhance outgoing longwave radiation. Investigations of the "fast response" in experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures reveal that CCT causes a significant enhancement of the latent heat flux and precipitation. This is due to enhanced radiative cooling of the troposphere, which is opposite to the effect of increased CO2 concentrations. By combining CCT with CO2 increase in multidecadal simulations with a slab ocean, we demonstrate a systematic enhancement of the hydrological cycle due to CCT. This leads to enhanced moisture availability in low-latitude land regions and a strengthening of the Indian monsoon.

GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Try, Paul

1993-01-01

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) represents the World Climate Research Program activities on clouds, radiation, and land-surface processes. The goal of the program is to reproduce and predict, by means of suitable models, the variations of the global hydrological regime and its impact on atmospheric and oceanic dynamics. However, GEWEX is also concerned with variations in regional hydrological processes and water resources and their response to changes in the environment such as increasing greenhouse gases. In fact, GEWEX contains a major new international project called the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP), which is designed to bridge the gap between the small scales represented by hydrological models and those scales that are practical for predicting the regional impacts of climate change. The development and use of coupled mesoscale-hydrological models for this purpose is a high priority in GCIP. The objectives of GCIP are presented.

An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset hindcasts indicate that climate models increase drought detectability over ESP by 31%-81%. However, less than 30% of the global drought onsets can be detected by climate models. The missed drought events are associated with weak ENSO signals and lower potential predictability. Due to the high false alarms from climate models, the reliability is more important than sharpness for a skillful probabilistic drought onset forecast. Validations and skill assessments for agricultural and hydrologic drought forecasts are carried out using soil moisture and streamflow output from the VIC land surface model (LSM) forced by a global forcing data set. Given our previous drought forecasting experiences over USA and Africa, validating the hydrologic drought forecasting is a significant challenge for a global drought early warning system.

Watershed Scale Analysis of Groundwater Surface Water Interactions and Its Application to Conjunctive Management under Climatic and Anthropogenic Stresses over the US Sunbelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Seung Beom

Although water is one of the most essential natural resources, human activities have been exerting pressure on water resources. In order to reduce these stresses on water resources, two key issues threatening water resources sustainability - interaction between surface water and groundwater resources and groundwater withdrawal impacts of streamflow depletion - were investigated in this study. First, a systematic decomposition procedure was proposed for quantifying the errors arising from various sources in the model chain in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes using near-term climate change projections. Apart from the unexplained changes by GCMs, the process of customizing GCM projections to watershed scale through a model chain - spatial downscaling, temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model - also introduces errors, thereby limiting the ability to explain the observed changes in hydrologic variability. Towards this, we first propose metrics for quantifying the errors arising from different steps in the model chain in explaining the observed changes in hydrologic variables (streamflow, groundwater). The proposed metrics are then evaluated using a detailed retrospective analyses in projecting the changes in streamflow and groundwater attributes in four target basins that span across a diverse hydroclimatic regimes over the US Sunbelt. Our analyses focused on quantifying the dominant sources of errors in projecting the changes in eight hydrologic variables - mean and variability of seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 3-day peak seasonal streamflow, mean and variability of 7-day low seasonal streamflow and mean and standard deviation of groundwater depth - over four target basins using an Penn state Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) between the period 1956-1980 and 1981-2005. Retrospective analyses show that small/humid (large/arid) basins show increased (reduced) uncertainty in projecting the changes in hydrologic attributes. Further, changes in error due to GCMs primarily account for the unexplained changes in mean and variability of seasonal streamflow. On the other hand, the changes in error due to temporal disaggregation and hydrologic model account for the inability to explain the observed changes in mean and variability of seasonal extremes. Thus, the proposed metrics provide insights on how the error in explaining the observed changes being propagated through the model under different hydroclimatic regimes. To understand interaction between surface water and groundwater resources, transient pumping impacts on streamflow and groundwater level were analyzed by imposing shortterm pumping scenarios under historic drought conditions. Since surface water and groundwater systems are fully coupled and integrated systems, increased groundwater withdrawal during drought may reduce baseflow into the stream and prolong both systems' recovery from drought. Towards this, we proposed an uncertainty framework to understand the resiliency of groundwater and surface water systems using a fully-coupled hydrologic model under transient pumping. Using this framework, we quantified the restoration time of surface water and groundwater systems and also estimated the changes in the state variables after pumping. Groundwater pumping impacts over the watershed were also analyzed under different pumping volumes and different potential climate scenarios. Our analyses show that groundwater restoration time is more sensitive to changes in pumping volumes as opposed to changes in climate. After the cessation of pumping, streamflow recovers quickly in comparison to groundwater. Pumping impacts on other state variables are also discussed. Given that surface water and groundwater are inter-connected, optimal management of the both resources should be considered to improve the watershed resiliency under drought. Subsequently, conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater has been considered as an effective approach to mitigate water shortage problems that are primarily caused by a drought. It is found that appropriate use of groundwater withdrawal was able to reduce water scarcity in surface water resources in drought condition. Besides, recovery time constraint was embedded in the management model so that trade-off between minimizing water scarcity and maximizing sustainability on groundwater was successfully addressed.

Improved Ground Hydrology Calculations for Global Climate Models (GCMs): Soil Water Movement and Evapotranspiration.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

1988-09-01

A physically based ground hydrology model is developed to improve the land-surface sensible and latent heat calculations in global climate models (GCMs). The processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff are explicitly included in the model. The amount of detail in the hydrologic calculations is restricted to a level appropriate for use in a GCM, but each of the aforementioned processes is modeled on the basis of the underlying physical principles. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM are used as inputs for off-line tests of the ground hydrology model in four 8° × 10° regions (Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India). Soil and vegetation input parameters are calculated as area-weighted means over the 8° × 10° gridhox. This compositing procedure is tested by comparing resulting hydrological quantities to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1° × 1° cells which comprise the 8° × 10° gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure works well except in the Sahel where lower soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce more variability in hydrological quantities, indicating that a resolution better than 8° × 10° is needed for that region. Modeled annual and diurnal hydrological cycles compare well with observations for Brazil, where real world data are available. The sensitivity of the ground hydrology model to several of its input parameters was tested; it was found to be most sensitive to the fraction of land covered by vegetation and least sensitive to the soil hydraulic conductivity and matric potential.

Land surface hydrology parameterization for atmospheric general circulation models including subgrid scale spatial variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, D.; Eagleson, P. S.

1989-01-01

Parameterizations are developed for the representation of subgrid hydrologic processes in atmospheric general circulation models. Reasonable a priori probability density functions of the spatial variability of soil moisture and of precipitation are introduced. These are used in conjunction with the deterministic equations describing basic soil moisture physics to derive expressions for the hydrologic processes that include subgrid scale variation in parameters. The major model sensitivities to soil type and to climatic forcing are explored.

Hydrogeologic setting and preliminary estimates of hydrologic components for Bull Run Lake and the Bull Run Lake drainage basin, Multnomah and Clackamas counties, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Daniel T.; Brownell, Dorie L.

1996-01-01

Suggestions for further study include (1) evaluation of the surface-runoff component of inflow to the lake; (2) use of a cross-sectional ground-water flow model to estimate ground-water inflow, outflow, and storage; (3) additional data collection to reduce the uncertainties of the hydrologic components that have large relative uncertainties; and (4) determination of long-term trends for a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions.

Evaluation of the performance of hydrological variables derived from GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2 in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Real-Rangel, R. A.; Pedrozo-Acuña, A.; Breña-Naranjo, J. A.

2017-12-01

Hydrological studies have found in data assimilation systems and global reanalysis of land surface variables (e.g soil moisture, streamflow) a wide range of applications, from drought monitoring to water balance and hydro-climatology variability assessment. Indeed, these hydrological data sources have led to an improvement in developing and testing monitoring and prediction systems in poorly gauged regions of the world. This work tests the accuracy and error of land surface variables (precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the data assimilation reanalysis products GLDAS-2 and MERRA-2. Validate the performance of these data platforms must be thoroughly evaluated in order to consider the error of hydrological variables (i.e., precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and temperature) derived from the reanalysis products. For such purpose, a quantitative assessment was performed at 2,892 climatological stations, 42 stream gauges and 44 soil moisture probes located in Mexico and across different climate regimes (hyper-arid to tropical humid). Results show comparisons between these gridded products against ground-based observational stations for 1979-2014. The results of this analysis display a spatial distribution of errors and accuracy over Mexico discussing differences between climates, enabling the informed use of these products.

An Overview of SASSCAL Activities Supporting Interdisciplinary Water Research in Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Jürgens, N.

2013-12-01

Climate change will affect current water resources in sub-Saharan Africa. Considering projected climate scenarios, the overall challenge in the southern African region is to secure water at sufficient quality and quantity for both, the stability of ecosystems with their functions and services as well as for human well-being (potable water, irrigation water, and water for industrial use). Thus, improved understanding of the linkages between hydrological (including hydro-geological) components of ecosystems and society is needed as a precondition to develop sustainable management strategies for integrated water resources management in this data scarce region. Funded by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), 87 research projects of the SASSCAL Initiative (Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management) focus on providing information and services allowing for a better understanding and assessment of the impact of climate and land management changes in five thematic areas, namely climate, water, agriculture, forestry and biodiversity. Water-related research activities in SASSCAL aim to improve our knowledge on the complex interactions and feedbacks between surface and groundwater dynamics and resources as well as land surface processes in selected regions of the participating countries (Angola, Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zambia). The main objective of this joint and integrated research effort is to develop reliable hydrological and hydro-geological baseline data along with a set of analytical methods to strengthen the research capacity of the water sector of the Southern African region. Thereby, SASSCAL contributes to the implemention of integrated water resources management strategies for improved trans-boundary river management and resources usage in the perspective of global climate and land management changes. Here, we present an overview and first results of ongoing studies conducted by various SASSCAL research teams. Specifically addressed is the installation of 30 Automatic Weather Stations in Angola, Botswana and Zambia which will notably improve regional data availability. We further introduce case studies on flood monitoring using remote sensing products, hydrological risks assessments and early warning systems for floods, integrated hydrological modeling efforts, groundwater-surface water interactions and various hydrological process studies in different ecosystems, all at various spatial (local, regional, national and international) and temporal (short-term, long-term, climate projection) scales. With this variety of examples we demonstrate our interdisciplinary research approach as the prerequisite to address the complexity of interacting drivers and processes affecting our land and water resources. The integration of these joint research efforts with findings from other thematic areas, e.g. in the field of optimized land management, deforestation and restoration, ecosystem stability and resilience, climate projections, food production and security, will allow for a better understanding and assessment of global change related environmental threats and resulting societal challenges in the Southern African region.

Climatic data for the Cottonwood Lake area, Stutsman County, North Dakota 1982

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Hanson, B.A.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1986-01-01

Research on the hydrology of the Cottonwood Lake area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer evaporation studies, including: water-surface temperature, sediment temperature dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, vapor pressure at and above the water surface, wind speed, and short- and long-wave radiation. Data were collected at raft and land stations.

Climatic data for the Cottonwood Lake area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Hanson, B.A.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1987-01-01

Research on the hydrology of the Cottonwood Lake area, Stutsman County, North Dakota, includes study of evaporation. Climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer evaporation studies that were collected during 1983 include water-surface temperature, sediment temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperature, vapor pressure at and above the water surface, wind speed, and short-and long-wave radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pielke, Roger; Steyaert, Lou; Arritt, Ray; Lahtakia, Mercedes; Smith, Chris; Ziegler, Conrad; Soong, Su Tzai; Avissar, Roni; Wetzel, Peter; Sellers, Piers

1993-01-01

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

New and Improved GLDAS Data Sets and Data Services at NASA GES DISC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rui, Hualan; Beaudoing, Hiroko; Teng, William; Vollmer, Bruce; Rodell, Matthew; Lei, Guang-Dih

2012-01-01

The goal of a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) is to ingest satellite- and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques, in order to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes data and, thereby, facilitate hydrology and climate modeling, research, and forecast. With the motivation of creating more climatologically consistent data sets, NASA GSFC's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory has generated more than 60 years (Jan. 1948-- Dec. 2008) of Global LDAS Version 2 (GLDAS-2) data, by using the Princeton Forcing Data Set and upgraded versions of Land Surface Models (LSMs). GLDAS data and data services are provided at NASA GES DISC Hydrology Data and Information Services Center (HDISC), in collaboration with HSL and LDAS.

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanderhoof, Melanie; Lane, Charles R.; McManus, Michael L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Christensen, Jay R.

2018-01-01

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

2009-12-01

Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial and temporal variability in climate, land-use changes, and available surface-water deliveries. For example, the droughts of 1976-77 and 1987-92 led to reduced streamflow and surface-water deliveries and increased evapotranspiration and groundwater pumpage throughout most of the valley, resulting in a decrease in groundwater storage. Since the mid-1990s, annual surface-water deliveries generally have exceeded groundwater pumpage, resulting in an increase or no change in groundwater storage throughout most of the valley. However, groundwater is still being removed from storage during most years in the southern part of the Central Valley. The CVHM is designed to be coupled with Global Climate Models to forecast the potential supply of surface-water deliveries, demand for groundwater pumpage, potential subsidence, and changes in groundwater storage in response to different climate-change scenarios. The detailed database on texture properties coupled with CVHM's ability to simulate the combined effects of recharge and discharge make CVHM particularly useful for assessing water-management plans, such as conjunctive water use, conservation of agriculture land, and land-use change. In the future, the CVHM could be used in conjunction with optimization models to help evaluate water-management alternatives to effectively utilize the available water resources.

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Engelbrecht, L.G.; Gothard, W.A.; Winter, T.C.

1984-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies,including: water-surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Assessment of the water balance over France using regionalized Turc-Pike formula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Lay, Matthieu; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël; Garavaglia, Federico

2016-04-01

With extensive use of hydrological models over a wide range of hydro-climatic contexts, bias in hydro-climatic data may lead to unreliable models and thus hydrological forecasts and projections. This issue is particularly pregnant when considering mountainous areas with great uncertainties on precipitations, or when considering complex unconservative catchments (e.g. karstic systems). The Turc-Pike water balance formula, analogous to the classical Budyko formula, is a simple and efficient mathematical formulation relating long-term average streamflow to long-term average precipitation and potential evaporation. In this study, we propose to apply this framework to assess and eventually adjust the water-balance before calibrating an operational hydrologic model (MORDOR model). Considering a large set of 350 french catchments, the Turc-Pike formula is regionalized based on ecohydrologic criterions to handle various hydro-climatic contexts. This interannual regional model is then applied to assess the water-balance over numerous catchments and various conditions, such as karstic, snow-driven or glaciarized and even anthropized catchments. Results show that it is possible to obtain pretty realistic corrections of meteorological inputs (precipitations, temperature or potential evaporation) or hydrologic surface (or runoff). These corrections can often be confirmed a posteriori by exogenous information. Positive impacts on hydrologic model's calibration are also demonstrated. This methodology is now operational for hydrologic applications at EDF (Electricité de France, French electric utility company), and therefore applied on hundreds of catchments.

Elucidating Critical Zone Process Interactions with an Integrated Hydrology Model in a Headwaters Research Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, C.; Maxwell, R. M.

2017-12-01

Providence Creek (P300) watershed is an alpine headwaters catchment located at the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO). Evidence of groundwater-dependent vegetation and drought-induced tree mortality at P300 along with the effect of subsurface characterization on mountain ecohydrology motivates this study. A hyper resolution integrated hydrology model of this site, along with extensive instrumentation, provides an opportunity to study the effects of lateral groundwater flow on vegetation's tolerance to drought. ParFlow-CLM is a fully integrated surface-subsurface model that is driven with reconstructed meteorology, such as the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset. However, large-scale data products mute orographic effects on climate at smaller scales. Climate variables often do not behave uniformly in highly heterogeneous mountain regions. Therefore, forcing physically-based integrated hydrologic models—especially of mountain headwaters catchments—with a large-scale data product is a major challenge. Obtaining reliable observations in complex terrain is challenging and while climate data products introduce uncertainties likewise, documented discrepancies between several data products and P300 observations suggest these data products may suffice. To tackle these issues, a suite of simulations was run to parse out (1) the effects of climate data source (data products versus observations) and (2) the effects of climate data spatial variability. One tool for evaluating the effect of climate data on model outputs is the relationship between latent head flux (LH) and evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning with water table depth (WTD). This zone of LH sensitivity to WTD is referred to as the "critical zone." Preliminary results suggest that these critical zone relationships are preserved despite forcing albeit significant shifts in magnitude. These results demonstrate that integrated hydrology models are sensitive to climate data thereby impacting the accuracy of hydrologic modeling of headwaters catchments used for water management and planning purposes and exploring the effects of climate change perturbations.

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

Modeling the Effects of Groundwater-fed Irrigation on Terrestrial Hydrology over the Conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

2014-06-01

Human alteration of the land surface hydrologic cycle is substantial. Recent studies suggest that local water management practices including groundwater pumping and irrigation could significantly alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system, with potential impacts on weather and climate through land-atmosphere feedbacks. In this study, we incorporated a groundwater withdrawal scheme into the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4). To simulate the impact of irrigation realistically, we calibrated the CLM4 simulated irrigation amount against observations from agriculture census at the county scale over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The water used for irrigation was then removedmore » from the surface runoff and groundwater aquifer according to a ratio determined from the county-level agricultural census data. Based on the simulations, the impact of groundwater withdrawals for irrigation on land surface and subsurface fluxes were investigated. Our results suggest that the impacts of irrigation on latent heat flux and potential recharge when water is withdrawn from surface water alone or from both surface and groundwater are comparable and local to the irrigation areas. However, when water is withdrawn from groundwater for irrigation, greater effects on the subsurface water balance were found, leading to significant depletion of groundwater storage in regions with low recharge rate and high groundwater exploitation rate. Our results underscore the importance of local hydrologic feedbacks in governing hydrologic response to anthropogenic change in CLM4 and the need to more realistically simulate the two-way interactions among surface water, groundwater, and atmosphere to better understand the impacts of groundwater pumping on irrigation efficiency and climate.« less

Using ATM laser altimetry to constrain surface mass balance estimates and supraglacial hydrology of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Studinger, M.; Medley, B.; Manizade, S.; Linkswiler, M. A.

2016-12-01

Repeat airborne laser altimetry measurements can provide large-scale field observations to better quantify spatial and temporal variability of surface processes contributing to seasonal elevation change and therefore surface mass balance. As part of NASA's Operation IceBridge the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) laser altimeter measured the surface elevation of the Greenland Ice Sheet during spring (March - May) and fall (September - October) of 2015. Comparison of the two surveys reveals a general trend of thinning for outlet glaciers and for the ice sheet in a manner related to elevation and latitude. In contrast, some thickening is observed on the west (but not on the east) side of the ice divide above 2200 m elevation in the southern half, below latitude 69°N.The observed magnitude and spatial patterns of the summer melt signal can be utilized as input into ice sheet models and for validating reanalysis of regional climate models such as RACMO and MAR. We use seasonal anomalies in MERRA-2 climate fields (temperature, precipitation) to understand the observed spatial signal in seasonal change. Aside from surface elevation change, runoff from meltwater pooling in supraglacial lakes and meltwater channels accounts for at least half of the total mass loss. The ability of the ATM laser altimeters to image glacial hydrological features in 3-D and determine the depth of supraglacial lakes could be used for process studies and for quantifying melt processes over large scales. The 1-meter footprint diameter of ATM laser on the surface, together with a high shot density, allows for the production of large-scale, high-resolution, geodetic quality DEMs (50 x 50 cm) suitable for fine-scale glacial hydrology research and as input to hydrological models quantifying runoff.

Representing Northern Peatland Hydrology and Biogeochemistry with ALM Land Surface Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, X.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Hanson, P. J.; Xu, X.; Mao, J.; Warren, J.; Yuan, F.; Norby, R. J.; Sebestyen, S.; Griffiths, N.; Weston, D. J.; Walker, A.

2017-12-01

Northern peatlands are likely to be important in future carbon cycle-climate feedbacks due to their large carbon pool and vulnerability to hydrological change. Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth for a vegetated wetland, independent of prescribed regional water tables. Firstly, we introduce a new configuration of the land model (ALM) of Accelerated Climate model for Energy (ACME), which includes a fully prognostic water table calculation for a vegetated peatland. Secondly, we couple our new hydrology treatment with vertically structured soil organic matter pool, and the addition of components from methane biogeochemistry. Thirdly, we introduce a new PFT for mosses and implement the water content dynamics and physiology of mosses. We inform and test our model based on SPRUCE experiment to get the reasonable results for the seasonal dynamics water table depths, water content dynamics and physiology of mosses, and correct soil carbon profiles. Then, we use our new model structure to test the how the water table depth and CH4 emission will respond to elevated CO2 and different warming scenarios.

Towards a high resolution, integrated hydrology model of North America: Diagnosis of feedbacks between groundwater and land energy fluxes at continental scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, Reed; Condon, Laura

2016-04-01

Recent studies demonstrate feedbacks between groundwater dynamics, overland flow, land surface and vegetation processes, and atmospheric boundary layer development that significantly affect local and regional climate across a range of climatic conditions. Furthermore, the type and distribution of vegetation cover alters land-atmosphere water and energy fluxes, as well as runoff generation and overland flow processes. These interactions can result in significant feedbacks on local and regional climate. In mountainous regions, recent research has shown that spatial and temporal variability in annual evapotranspiration, and thus water budgets, is strongly dependent on lateral groundwater flow; however, the full effects of these feedbacks across varied terrain (e.g. from plains to mountains) are not well understood. Here, we present a high-resolution, integrated hydrology model that covers much of continental North America and encompasses the Mississippi and Colorado watersheds. The model is run in a fully-transient manner at hourly temporal resolution incorporating fully-coupled land energy states and fluxes with integrated surface and subsurface hydrology. Connections are seen between hydrologic variables (such as water table depth) and land energy fluxes (such as latent heat) and spatial and temporal scaling is shown to span many orders of magnitude. Model results suggest that partitioning of plant transpiration to bare soil evaporation is a function of water table depth and later groundwater flow. Using these transient simulations as a proof of concept, we present a vision for future integrated simulation capabilities.

Dependence of Wetland Vegetation on Hydrological Regime in a Large Floodplain Lake (Poyang Lake) in the Middle Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Q.; Tan, Z.; Xu, X.

2017-12-01

Exemplified in the Yangtze River floodplain lake, Poyang Lake, investigations were carried out to examine the dependence of vegetation on hydrological variables. The Lake is one of the few lakes that remain naturally connected to the Yangtze River. The Lake surface expanses to 4000 km2 in wet seasons, and reduces to less than 1000 km2 in dry seasons, creating some 3000 km2 vital wetland habitats for many animals. Remote sensing was used to obtain the spatial distribution of wetland vegetations. A lake hydrodynamic model using MIKE 21 was employed to determine the variability of wetland inundation. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, and groundwater depth were also conducted in a typical wetland transect of 1 km long. Vegetations were sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results showed that the spatial distribution of vegetation highly depended on the inundation duration and depth. Optimal hydrological variables existed for the typical vegetations in Poyang Lake wetland. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further demonstrated that both groundwater depth and soil moisture had significant effects on the growth of vegetation and the water demand in terms of transpiration, even in a wet climate zone such as middle Yangtze River. It was found that the optimal groundwater depths existed for both above- and belowground biomass. Simulation scenarios indicated that climate changes and human modification of hydrology would affect the water usage of vegetation and may cause a strategic adaptation of the vegetation to the stressed hydrological conditions. The study revealed new knowledge on the high dependence of wetland vegetation on both surface water regime and groundwater depths, in wet climate zone. Outcomes of this study may provide support for an integrated management of balancing water resources development and wetland sustainability maintenance in Poyang Lake, and other floodplain wetlands, with strong natural and human interferences.

Qualitatively Assessing Randomness in SVD Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamb, K. W.; Miller, W. P.; Kalra, A.; Anderson, S.; Rodriguez, A.

2012-12-01

Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) is a powerful tool for identifying regions of significant co-variability between two spatially distributed datasets. SVD has been widely used in atmospheric research to define relationships between sea surface temperatures, geopotential height, wind, precipitation and streamflow data for myriad regions across the globe. A typical application for SVD is to identify leading climate drivers (as observed in the wind or pressure data) for a particular hydrologic response variable such as precipitation, streamflow, or soil moisture. One can also investigate the lagged relationship between a climate variable and the hydrologic response variable using SVD. When performing these studies it is important to limit the spatial bounds of the climate variable to reduce the chance of random co-variance relationships being identified. On the other hand, a climate region that is too small may ignore climate signals which have more than a statistical relationship to a hydrologic response variable. The proposed research seeks to identify a qualitative method of identifying random co-variability relationships between two data sets. The research identifies the heterogeneous correlation maps from several past results and compares these results with correlation maps produced using purely random and quasi-random climate data. The comparison identifies a methodology to determine if a particular region on a correlation map may be explained by a physical mechanism or is simply statistical chance.

Impacts of Climate and Land-cover Changes on Water Resources in a Humid Subtropical Watershed: a Case Study from East Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, J.

2015-12-01

This study investigates an interconnected system of climate change - land cover - water resources for a watershed in humid subtropical climate from 1970 to 2009. A 0.7°C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed in our study area where temperature had no obvious increase trend and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land-cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Precipitation contribution to the other hydrologic parameters for a humid subtropical basin is estimated to be 51.9% of evapotranspiration, 16.3% of surface runoff, 0.9% of groundwater discharge, 19.3% of soil water content, and 11.6% of water storage. It shows little higher evapotranspiration and considerably lower surface runoff compare to other humid climate area due to vegetation dominance of land cover. Hydrologic responses to climate and land cover changes are increases of surface runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration by 15.0%, 2.7%, and 20.1%, respectively, and decrease of groundwater discharge decreased by 9.2%. Surface runoff is relatively stable with precipitation while groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to land cover changes especially human intervention. If temperature is relatively stable, it is considered to be land cover plays important role in evapotranspiration. Citation: Heo, J., J. Yu, J. R. Giardino, and H. Cho (2015), Impacts of climate and land-cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas, USA, Water Environ. J., 29, doi:10.1111/wej.12096

A conceptual hydrologic model for a forested Carolina bay depressional wetland on the Coastal Plain of South Carolina, USA

Treesearch

Jennifer E. Pyzoha; Timothy J. Callahan; Ge Sun; Carl C. Trettin; Masato Miwa

2008-01-01

This paper describes how climate influences the hydrology of an ephemeral depressional wetland. Surface water and groundwater elevation data were collected for 7 years in a Coastal Plain watershed in South Carolina USA containing depressional wetlands, known as Carolina bays. Rainfall and temperature data were compared with water-table well and piezometer data in and...

Connecting differential responses of native and invasive riparian plants to climate change and environmental alteration.

PubMed

Flanagan, Neal E; Richardson, Curtis J; Ho, Mengchi

2015-04-01

Climate change is predicted to impact river systems in the southeastern United States through alterations of temperature, patterns of precipitation and hydrology. Future climate scenarios for the southeastern United States predict (1) surface water temperatures will warm in concert with air temperature, (2) storm flows will increase and base flows will decrease, and (3) the annual pattern of synchronization between hydroperiod and water temperature will be altered. These alterations are expected to disturb floodplain plant communities, making them more vulnerable to establishment of invasive species. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate whether native and invasive riparian plant assemblages respond differently to alterations of climate and land use. To study the response of riparian wetlands to watershed and climate alterations, we utilized an existing natural experiment imbedded in gradients of temperature and hydrology-found among dammed and undammed rivers. We evaluated a suite of environmental variables related to water temperature, hydrology, watershed disturbance, and edaphic conditions to identify the strongest predictors of native and invasive species abundances. We found that native species abundance is strongly influenced by climate-driven variables such as temperature and hydrology, while invasive species abundance is more strongly influenced by site-specific factors such as land use and soil nutrient availability. The patterns of synchronization between plant phenology, annual hydrographs, and annual water temperature cycles may be key factors sustaining the viability of native riparian plant communities. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the interactions between climate, land use, and nutrient management in maintaining the species diversity of riparian plant communities. Future climate change is likely to result in diminished competitiveness of native plant species, while the competitiveness of invasive species will increase due to anthropogenic watershed disturbance and accelerated nutrient and sediment export.

Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

2015-10-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a decrease of the lowest flows, except for the SWAT model with the mean hydrological impact climate change scenario. The results of this study indicate that besides the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios also the hydrological model structure uncertainty should be taken into account in the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology. To make it more straightforward and transparent to include model structural uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, there is a need for hydrological modelling tools that allow flexible structures and methods to validate model structures in their ability to assess impacts under unobserved future climatic conditions.

Hydrologic and Agent-based Modelling of Hydro-refugia in East Africa, Insights into the Importance of Water Resources in Hominin Evolution and Dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashley, G. M.; Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Reynolds, S. R.; Bennett, M. R.; Newton, A. C.; McCormack, C. J.

2017-12-01

Hominin evolution and climate variability have often been linked because of the apparent coincidence of climate fluctuations and speciation or extinctions, although the cause and effect of climate on natural selection is not clear. Climate in the EARS (East African Rift System) where most hominin first occurrences are located experienced an overall drying over the last 7 myr. Superimposed on this trend, Milankovitch cycles generated wet-dry precession cycles ( 23 kyr) that changed both water and food resource availability. During dry periods, lakes became more alkaline and rivers ephemeral but, groundwater, buffered from surface climate effects, remained a potential resource during the driest of times. The possibility of widespread groundwater sources hydro-refugia, such as springs, wetlands and groundwater-fed perennial streams has received little attention with respect to the paleoenvironmental context of hominin evolution or dispersal. We demonstrate that hydrogeological modelling of the modern landscape in East Africa coupled with ABM (agent-based modelling) of hominin movement yields new insight into potential correlates of hominin survival and dispersal. Digitized hydrological mapping of present day rivers, lakes and springs along the EARS (2000 km) from northern Tanzania to Ethiopia provided the modelling framework. Present day conditions are considered analogous to past dry periods; wet period conditions are an expanded hydrologic network including all surface water bodies. Our focus was on perennial springs discharging at 1,000 m3/y (volume to sustain a small wetland). 450 such springs occur and were found to be significantly controlled by geology, not just climate. The ABM was designed to determine if it was possible for humans to walk between hydro-refugia in 3 days. Four climate scenarios were run on ABM: wet, wet-to-dry, dry and dry-to-wet. During dry periods our results suggest that groundwater availability would have been critical to supporting isolated networks of hydro-refugia when potable surface water was scarce. As the climate got wetter modeled cross-rift dispersal potentially occurred before movement along the rift. The presence of groundwater hydro-refugia may help explain how some patterns of taxonomic diversity in hominins may have developed.

Potential Impacts of Climate Warming on Water Supply Reliability in the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California

PubMed Central

Kiparsky, Michael; Joyce, Brian; Purkey, David; Young, Charles

2014-01-01

We present an integrated hydrology/water operations simulation model of the Tuolumne and Merced River Basins, California, using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) platform. The model represents hydrology as well as water operations, which together influence water supplied for agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. The model is developed for impacts assessment using scenarios for climate change and other drivers of water system behavior. In this paper, we describe the model structure, its representation of historical streamflow, agricultural and urban water demands, and water operations. We describe projected impacts of climate change on hydrology and water supply to the major irrigation districts in the area, using uniform 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C increases applied to climate inputs from the calibration period. Consistent with other studies, we find that the timing of hydrology shifts earlier in the water year in response to temperature warming (5–21 days). The integrated agricultural model responds with increased water demands 2°C (1.4–2.0%), 4°C (2.8–3.9%), and 6°C (4.2–5.8%). In this sensitivity analysis, the combination of altered hydrology and increased demands results in decreased reliability of surface water supplied for agricultural purposes, with modeled quantity-based reliability metrics decreasing from a range of 0.84–0.90 under historical conditions to 0.75–0.79 under 6°C warming scenario. PMID:24465455

Mid-Holocene hydrologic model of the Shingobee watershed, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Filby, S.K.; Locke, Sharon M.; Person, M.A.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.; Ito, E.

2002-01-01

A hydrologifc model of the Shingobee Watershed in north-central Minnesota was developed to reconstruct mid-Holocene paleo-lake levels for Williams Lake, a surface-water body located in the southern portion of the watershed. Hydrologic parameters for the model were first estimated in a calibration exercise using a 9-yr historical record (1990-1998) of climatic and hydrologic stresses. The model reproduced observed temporal and spatial trends in surface/groundwater levels across the watershed. Mid-Holocene aquifer and lake levels were then reconstructed using two paleoclimatic data sets: CCM1 atmospheric general circulation model output and pollen-transfer functions using sediment core data from Williams Lake. Calculated paleo-lake levels based on pollen-derived paleoclimatic reconstructions indicated a 3.5-m drop in simulated lake levels and were in good agreement with the position of mid-Holocene beach sands observed in a Williams Lake sediment core transect. However, calculated paleolake levels based on CCM1 climate forcing produced only a 0.05-m drop in lake levels. We found that decreases in winter precipitation rather than temperature increases had the largest effect on simulated mid-Holocene lake levels. The study illustrates how watershed models can be used to critically evaluate paleoclimatic reconstructions by integrating geologic, climatic, limnologic, and hydrogeologic data sets. ?? 2002 University of Washington.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qian, Yun; Yasunari, Teppei J.; Doherty, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Light absorbing particles (LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust) influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance (a.k.a., surface darkening), which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice (LAPSI) has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g. in the fourth andmore » fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, andclimatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.« less

Peatland hydrology and carbon release: why small-scale process matters.

PubMed

Holden, Joseph

2005-12-15

Peatlands cover over 400 million hectares of the Earth's surface and store between one-third and one-half of the world's soil carbon pool. The long-term ability of peatlands to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere means that they play a major role in moderating global climate. Peatlands can also either attenuate or accentuate flooding. Changing climate or management can alter peatland hydrological processes and pathways for water movement across and below the peat surface. It is the movement of water in peats that drives carbon storage and flux. These small-scale processes can have global impacts through exacerbated terrestrial carbon release. This paper will describe advances in understanding environmental processes operating in peatlands. Recent (and future) advances in high-resolution topographic data collection and hydrological modelling provide an insight into the spatial impacts of land management and climate change in peatlands. Nevertheless, there are still some major challenges for future research. These include the problem that impacts of disturbance in peat can be irreversible, at least on human time-scales. This has implications for the perceived success and understanding of peatland restoration strategies. In some circumstances, peatland restoration may lead to exacerbated carbon loss. This will also be important if we decide to start to create peatlands in order to counter the threat from enhanced atmospheric carbon.

NCA-LDAS: A Terrestrial Water Analysis System Enabling Sustained Assessment and Dissemination of National Climate Indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasinski, M. F.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Beaudoing, H. K.; Bolten, J. D.; Borak, J.; Kempler, S.; Li, B.; Mocko, D. M.; Rodell, M.; Rui, H.; Silberstein, D. S.; Teng, W. L.; Vollmer, B.

2016-12-01

The National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System, or NCA-LDAS, is an integrated terrestrial water analysis system created as an end-to-end enabling tool for sustained assessment and dissemination of terrestrial hydrologic indicators in support of the NCA. The primary features are i) gridded, daily time series of over forty hydrologic variables including terrestrial water and energy balance stores, states and fluxes over the continental U.S. derived from land surface modeling with multivariate satellite data record assimilation (1979-2015), ii) estimated trends of the principal water balance components over a wide range of scales and locations, and iii) public dissemination of all NCA-LDAS model forcings, and input and output data products through dedicated NCA-LDAS and NASA GES-DISC websites. NCA-LDAS supports sustained assessment of our national terrestrial hydrologic climate for improved scientific understanding, and the adaptation and management of water resources and related energy sectors. This presentation provides an overview of the NCA-LDAS system together with an evaluation of the initial release of NCA-LDAS data products and trends using two land surface models; Noah Ver. 3.3 and Catchment Ver. Fortuna 2.5, and a listing of several available pathways for public access and visualization of NCA-LDAS background information and data products.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Response of terrestrial hydrology to climate and permafrost change for the 21st century as simulated by JSBACH offline experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blome, Tanja; Hagemann, Stefan; Ekici, Altug; Beer, Christian

2015-04-01

Permafrost (PF) or perennially frozen ground is an important part of the terrestrial cryosphere; roughly one quarter of Earth's land surface is underlain by permafrost. As it is a thermal phenomenon, its characteristics are highly dependent on climatic factors. The impact of the currently observed warming, which is projected to persist during the coming decades due to anthropogenic CO2 input, certainly has effects for the vast permafrost areas of the high northern latitudes. The quantification of these effects, however, is scientifically still an open question. This is partly due to the complexity of the system, where several feedbacks are interacting between land and atmosphere, sometimes counterbalancing each other. In terms of hydrology, changes in permafrost characteristics may lead to contradicting effects. E.g., observations show that the deepening of the Active Layer (AL) can both decrease and increase soil moisture, depending on the specific conditions. For the investigation of hydrological changes in response to climatic and thus PF change, it is therefore necessary to use a model. To address this response of the terrestrial hydrology to projected changes for the 21st century, the global land surface model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, JSBACH, was used to simulate several future climate scenarios. JSBACH recently has been equipped with important physical PF processes, such as the effects of freezing and thawing of soil water for both energy and water cycles, thermal properties depending on soil water and ice contents, and soil moisture movement being influenced by the presence of soil ice. In order to identify hydrological impacts originating solely in the physical forcing, experiments were conducted in an offline mode and with fixed vegetation cover. Feedback mechanisms, e.g. via the carbon cycle, were thus excluded. The uncertainty range arising through different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as through different GCMs was addressed through the use of combinations of two RCPs and two GCMs as driving data. Analysis will focus on hydrological variables and related quantities.

Climatic change impacts on water balance of the Upper Jordan River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heckl, A.; Kunstmann, H.

2009-04-01

The Eastern Mediterranean and Near East (EM/NE) is an extremely water scarce environment. It is expected that problems will increase due to climate change and population growth. The impact of climate change on water availability in EM/NE and in particular the Jordan River catchment is investigated in this study. Focus is set on the Upper Jordan River catchment (UJC) as it provides 1/3rd of freshwater resources in Israel and Palestine. It is a hydro-geologically extremely complex region with karstic groundwater flow and an orography with steep gradients. The methods used are high resolution coupled regional climate - hydrology simulations. Two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) of the global climate model ECHAM4 have been dynamically downscaled using the non-hydrostatic meteorological model MM5 in two nesting steps with resolutions of 54x54 km2 and 18x18 km2 for the period 1961-2099, whereby the time slice 1961-1989 represents the current climate. The meteorological fields are used to drive the physically based hydrological model WaSiM applied to the UJC. The hydrological model computes in detail the surface and subsurface water flow and water balance in a horizontal resolution of 450 x 450 m2 and dynamically couples to a 2-dim numerical groundwater model. Parameters like surface runoff, groundwater recharge, soil moisture and evapotranspiration can be extracted. Results show in both scenarios increasing yearly mean temperatures up to 4-5 K until 2099 and decreasing yearly precipitation amounts up to 25% (scenario A2). The effect on the water balance of the UJC are reduced discharge and groundwater recharge, increased evaporation and reduction of snow cover in the mountains which usually serves as an important freshwater reservoir for the summer discharge.

Hydrologic response of the Crow Wing Watershed, Minnesota, to mid-Holocene climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Person, M.; Roy, P.; Wright, H.; Gutowski, W.; Ito, E.; Winter, T.; Rosenberry, D.; Cohen, D.

2007-01-01

In this study, we have integrated a suite of Holocene paleoclimatic proxies with mathematical modeling in an attempt to obtain a comprehensive picture of how watersheds respond to past climate change. A three-dimensional surface-water-groundwater model was developed to assess the effects of mid-Holocene climate change on water resources within the Crow Wing Watershed, Upper Mississippi Basin in north central Minnesota. The model was first calibrated to a 50 yr historical record of average annual surface-water discharge, monthly groundwater levels, and lake-level fluctuations. The model was able to reproduce reasonably well long-term historical records (1949-1999) of water-table and lake-level fluctuations across the watershed as well as stream discharge near the watershed outlet. The calibrated model was then used to reproduce paleogroundwater and lake levels using climate reconstructions based on pollen-transfer functions from Williams Lake just outside the watershed. Computed declines in mid-Holocene lake levels for two lakes at opposite ends of the watershed were between 6 and 18 m. Simulated streamflow near the outlet of the watershed decreased to 70% of modern average annual discharge after ???200 yr. The area covered by wetlands for the entire watershed was reduced by ???16%. The mid-Holocene hydrologic changes indicated by these model results and corroborated by several lake-core records across the Crow Wing Watershed may serve as a useful proxy of the hydrologic response to future warm, dry climatic forecasts (ca. 2050) made by some atmospheric general-circulation models for the glaciated Midwestern United States. ?? 2007 Geological Society of America.

WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

2014-05-01

Changing climate and hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are among the most severe challenges to Africa in the 21st century. In particular West Africa faces an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with negative impacts on humans and environment due to climate change, increased hydro-meteorological variability and land use changes. To help meet these challenges, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) started an initiative with institutions in Germany and West African countries to establish together a West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). This activity is accompanied by an establishment of trans-boundary observation networks, an interdisciplinary core research program and graduate research programs on climate change and related issues for strengthening the analytical capabilities of the Science Service Center. A key research activity of the WASCAL Competence Center is the provision of regional climate simulations in a fine spatio-temporal resolution for the core research sites of WASCAL for the present and the near future. The climate information is needed for subsequent local climate impact studies in agriculture, water resources and further socio-economic sectors. The simulation experiments are performed using regional climate models such as COSMO-CLM, RegCM and WRF and statistical techniques for a further refinement of the projections. The core research sites of WASCAL are located in the Sudanian Savannah belt in Northern Ghana, Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. The climate in this region is semi-arid with six rainy months. Due to the strong population growth in West Africa, many areas of the Sudanian Savannah have been already converted to farmland since the majority of the people are living directly or indirectly from the income produced in agriculture. The simulation experiments of the Competence Center and the Core Research Program are accompanied by the WASCAL Graduate Research Program on the West African Climate System. The GRP-WACS provides ten scholarships per year for West African PhD students with a duration of three years. Present and future WASCAL PhD students will constitute one important user group of the Linux cluster that will be installed at the Competence Center in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Regional Land-Atmosphere Simulations A key research activity of the WASCAL Core Research Program is the analysis of interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere to investigate how land surface changes affect hydro-meteorological surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration. Since current land surface models of global and regional climate models neglect dominant lateral hydrological processes such as surface runoff, a novel land surface model is used, the NCAR Distributed Hydrological Modeling System (NDHMS). This model can be coupled to WRF (WRF-Hydro) to perform two-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological simulations for the watershed of interest. Hardware and network prerequisites include a HPC cluster, network switches, internal storage media, Internet connectivity of sufficient bandwidth. Competences needed are HPC, storage, and visualization systems optimized for climate research, parallelization and optimization of climate models and workflows, efficient management of highest data volumes.

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1984

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1986-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: water-surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and atmospheric radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1985

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Winter, T.C.

1987-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: water-surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and atmospheric radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Quantifying the impact of Teleconnections on Hydrologic Regimes in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change is being alleged to have led to the increased frequency of extreme flooding events and the resulting damages are severe, especially where the flood-plain population densities are higher. Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on improving real-time flood forecasting models. Recent studies show that, in the state of Texas, extreme regional floods are actually triggered by abruptly higher precipitation intensities. Such intensities are further driven by sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies, defined by certain patterns of teleconnections. In this study, climate variability is defined on the basis of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related teleconnections: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Hydrologic extremes will be modeled using probabilistic distributions. Leave-One-Out-Test (LOOT) will be employed to address the outliers in the extremes, and to eventually obtain the robust correlation coefficient. The variation in the effect of most correlated teleconnection with respect to hydrologic attributes will be investigated for the entire state. This study will attempt to identify potential teleconnection inputs for data-driven hydrologic models under varying climatic conditions.

USGS Geospatial Fabric and Geo Data Portal for Continental Scale Hydrology Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, K. M.; Newman, A. J.; Blodgett, D. L.; Viger, R.; Hay, L.; Clark, M. P.

2013-12-01

This presentation describes use of United States Geological Survey (USGS) data products and server-based resources for continental-scale hydrologic simulations. The USGS Modeling of Watershed Systems (MoWS) group provides a consistent national geospatial fabric built on NHDPlus. They have defined more than 100,000 hydrologic response units (HRUs) over the continental United States based on points of interest (POIs) and split into left and right bank based on the corresponding stream segment. Geophysical attributes are calculated for each HRU that can be used to define parameters in hydrologic and land-surface models. The Geo Data Portal (GDP) project at the USGS Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) provides access to downscaled climate datasets and processing services via web-interface and python modules for creating forcing datasets for any polygon (such as an HRU). These resources greatly reduce the labor required for creating model-ready data in-house, contributing to efficient and effective modeling applications. We will present an application of this USGS cyber-infrastructure for assessments of impacts of climate change on hydrology over the continental United States.

Roles of Fog and Topography in Redwood Forest Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, E. J.; Asner, G. P.

2017-12-01

Spatial variability of water in forests is a function of both climatic gradients that control water inputs and topo-edaphic variation that determines the flows of water belowground, as well as interactions of climate with topography. Coastal redwood forests are hydrologically unique because they are influenced by coastal low clouds, or fog, that is advected onto land by a strong coastal-to-inland temperature difference. Where fog intersects the land surface, annual water inputs from summer fog drip can be greater than that of winter rainfall. In this study, we take advantage of mapped spatial gradients in forest canopy water storage, topography, and fog cover in California to better understand the roles and interactions of fog and topography in the hydrology of redwood forests. We test a conceptual model of redwood forest hydrology with measurements of canopy water content derived from high-resolution airborne imaging spectroscopy, topographic variables derived from high-resolution LiDAR data, and fog cover maps derived from NASA MODIS data. Landscape-level results provide insight into hydrological processes within redwood forests, and cross-site analyses shed light on their generality.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surface-Atmosphere Connections on Titan: A New Window into Terrestrial Hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean

This dissertation investigates the coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface processes on Titan, with a particular focus on methane precipitation and its influence on surface geomorphology and hydrology. As the only body in the Solar System with an active hydrologic cycle other than Earth, Titan presents a valuable laboratory for studying principles of hydroclimate on terrestrial planets. Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) are used here to test hypotheses regarding Titan's surface-atmosphere connections. First, an Earth-like GCM simulated over a range of rotation rates is used to evaluate the effect of rotation rate on seasonal monsoon behavior. Slower rotation rates result in poleward migration of summer rain, indicating a large-scale atmospheric control on Titan's observed dichotomy of dry low latitudes and moist high latitudes. Second, a Titan GCM benchmarked against observations is used to analyze the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme methane rainstorms as simulated by the model. Regional patterns in these extreme events correlate well with observed geomorphic features, with the most extreme rainstorms occurring in mid-latitude regions associated with high alluvial fan concentrations. Finally, a planetary surface hydrology scheme is developed and incorporated into a Titan GCM to evaluate the roles of surface flow, subsurface flow, infiltration, and groundmethane evaporation in Titan's climate. The model reproduces Titan's observed surface liquid and cloud distributions, and reaches an equilibrium state with limited interhemispheric transport where atmospheric transport is approximately balanced by subsurface transport. The equilibrium state suggests that Titan's current hemispheric surface liquid asymmetry, favoring methane accumulation in the north, is stable in the modern climate.

Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

2013-04-01

Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled hydrology-atmosphere for water resource planning. Arora et al. (1999) and Oki and Sud (1998) developed a method for routing river flows through GCM grid cells. Accordingly, reliable forecasts are expected to help water managers and users with long lead time decisions, leading to greater water use efficiency and better risk management (Wang, 2012). SO, we analysed hydrological cycle and drought index from precipitation, evaporation, runoff, soil moisture, river outflow, and so on using atmosphere-ocean coupled model which called by HadGEM2-AO. Details and added information by this climate projection system about the future water cycle's change will be presented at the workshop. Acknowledgments: This research has been supported by project NIMR-2013-B-2 of the National Institute of Meteorological Research in Korea Meteorological Administration.

Century long observation constrained global dynamic downscaling and hydrologic implication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Yoshimura, K.; Chang, E.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Oki, T.

2012-12-01

It has been suggested that greenhouse gas induced warming climate causes the acceleration of large scale hydrologic cycles, and, indeed, many regions on the Earth have been suffered by hydrologic extremes getting more frequent. However, historical observations are not able to provide enough information in comprehensive manner to understand their long-term variability and/or global distributions. In this study, a century long high resolution global climate data is developed in order to break through existing limitations. 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR) which has relatively low spatial resolution (~2.0°) and longer term availability (140 years) is dynamically downscaled into global T248 (~0.5°) resolution using Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Global Spectral Model (GSM) by spectral nudging data assimilation technique. Also, Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) observational data are adopted to reduce model dependent uncertainty. Downscaled product successfully represents realistic geographical detail keeping low frequency signal in mean state and spatiotemporal variability, while previous bias correction method fails to reproduce high frequency variability. Newly developed data is used to investigate how long-term large scale terrestrial hydrologic cycles have been changed globally and how they have been interacted with various climate modes, such as El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As a further application, it will be used to provide atmospheric boundary condition of multiple land surface models in the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 3 (GSWP3).

Second Conference on Early Mars: Geologic Hydrologic, and Climatic Evolution and the Implications for Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Some of the topics addressed by the conference paper abstracts included in this document include: martian terrain, terrestrial biological activity and mineral deposits with implications for life on Mars, the martian crust and mantle, weathering and erosion on Mars, evidence for ancient martian environmental and climatic conditions, with implications for the existence of surface and ground water on Mars and the possibility for life, martian valleys, and evidence for water and lava flow on the surface of Mars.

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface water and energy balances, highlighting the need to incorporate human activities such as irrigation into the framework of global climate models and Earth system models for better prediction of future changes under increasing human influence and continuing global climate change.

Precipitation v. River Discharge Controls on Water Availability to Riparian Trees in the Rhône River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. B.; Sargeant, C. I.; Vallet-Coulomb, C.; Evans, C.; Bates, C. R.

2014-12-01

Water availability to riparian trees in lowlands is controlled through precipitation and its infiltration into floodplain soils, and through river discharge additions to the hyporheic water table. The relative contributions of both water sources to the root zone within river floodplains vary through time, depending on climatic fluctuations. There is currently limited understanding of how climatic fluctuations are expressed at local scales, especially in 'critical zone' hydrology, which is fundamental to the health and sustainability of riparian forest ecosystems. This knowledge is particularly important in water-stressed Mediterranean climate systems, considering climatic trends and projections toward hotter and drier growing seasons, which have the potential to dramatically reduce water availability to riparian forests. Our aim is to identify and quantify the relative contributions of hyporheic (discharge) water v. infiltrated precipitation to water uptake by riparian Mediterranean trees for several distinct hydrologic years, selected to isolate contrasts in water availability from these sources. Our approach includes isotopic analyses of water and tree-ring cellulose, mechanistic modeling of water uptake and wood production, and physically based modeling of subsurface hydrology. We utilize an extensive database of oxygen isotope (δ18O) measurements in surface water and precipitation alongside recent measurements of δ18O in groundwater and soil water and in tree-ring cellulose. We use a mechanistic model to back-calculate source water δ18O based on δ18O in cellulose and climate data. Finally, we test our results via 1-D hydrologic modeling of precipitation infiltration and water table rise and fall. These steps enable us to interpret hydrologic cycle variability within the 'critical zone' and their potential impact on riparian trees.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. PMID:26544070

Climatic and hydrologic influences on wading bird foraging patterns in Everglades National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, H.; Lall, U.; Engel, V.

2007-12-01

A goal of the Everglades National Park (ENP) restoration project is to ensure that the ecological health of the ENP improves as a direct result of management activities. Achieving hydrologic targets through the proper timing and amount of releases from control structures is a first step in the management process. Significant climate and weather variations in the region influence the ability to make releases and also determine the ecological outcomes. An assessment of the relative impact of climate variations and water releases to ENP in determining ecological outcomes is consequently a key to the evaluation of the success or failure of any restoration plan. Seasonal water depths in ENP depend on managed surface water releases from control structures and on direct rainfall. Here we link wading bird foraging patterns - a fundamental aspect of Everglades' ecology - to hydrologic management and climate variability in the National Park. Our objective is multifold. First, we relate the water levels at P33 and Shark Slough to the synoptic hydrologic conditions. Second, we develop a statistical model relating water levels at a station in central Shark Slough (P33) to wading birds foraging patterns throughout ENP. We attempt to apply a Hierarchical Bayesian scheme to a time series of wading bird to provide an uncertainty distribution of the population over specified time periods given hydrologic condition. Third, we develop a set of hydrologic index derived by recorded water level at P33 for a use of the statistical model of wading birds as an input. Our study will focus on great egret and white ibis that are major species among wading birds in the ENP. The great egret and white ibis prediction predicted by the model using the proposed predictors exhibits strong correlation with the observed streamflow, with an correlation 0.8.

Responses of the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation to Climate Change and Connection to the Hydrological Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Chadwick, Robin; Seo, Kyong-Hwan; Dong, Changming; Huang, Gang; Foltz, Gregory R.; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2018-05-01

This review describes the climate change–induced responses of the tropical atmospheric circulation and their impacts on the hydrological cycle. We depict the theoretically predicted changes and diagnose physical mechanisms for observational and model-projected trends in large-scale and regional climate. The tropical circulation slows down with moisture and stratification changes, connecting to a poleward expansion of the Hadley cells and a shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Redistributions of regional precipitation consist of thermodynamic and dynamical components, including a strong offset between moisture increase and circulation weakening throughout the tropics. This allows other dynamical processes to dominate local circulation changes, such as a surface warming pattern effect over oceans and multiple mechanisms over land. To improve reliability in climate projections, more fundamental understandings of pattern formation, circulation change, and the balance of various processes redistributing land rainfall are suggested to be important.

Landcover Mapping of the McMurdo Ice Shelf Using Landsat and WorldView Image Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, E. K.; Macdonald, G.; Mayer, D. P.; MacAyeal, D. R.

2016-12-01

Ice shelves bound approximately half of the Antarctic coast and act to buttress the glaciers that feed them. The collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula highlights the importance of processes at the surface for an ice shelf's stability. The McMurdo Ice Shelf is unique among Antarctic ice shelves in that it exists in a relatively warm climate zone and is thus more vulnerable to climate change than colder ice shelves at similar latitudes. However, little is known quantitatively about the surface cover types across the ice shelf, impeding the study of its hydrology and of the origins of its features. In particular, no work has been done linking field observations of supraglacial channels to shelf-wide surface hydrology. We will present the first satellite-derived multiscale landcover map of the McMurdo Ice Shelf based on Landsat 8 and WorldView-2 image data. Landcover types are extracted using supervised classification methods referenced to field observations. Landsat 8 provides coverage of the entire ice shelf ( 5,000 km2) at 30 m/pixel, sufficient to distinguish glacial ice, debris cover, and large supraglacial lakes. WorldView data cover a smaller area— 300 km2 at 2 m/pixel—and thus allow detailed mapping of features that are not spatially resolved by Landsat, such as supraglacial channels and small fractures across the ice shelf's surface. We take advantage of the higher resolution of WorldView-2 data to calculate the area of mid-summer surface water in channels and melt ponds within a detailed study area and use this as the basis for a spectral mixture model in order to estimate the total surface water area across the ice shelf. We intend to use the maps to guide strategic planning of future field research into the seasonal surface hydrology and climate stability of the McMurdo Ice Shelf.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

Critical impact of vegetation physiology on the continental hydrologic cycle in response to increasing CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemordant, Léo; Gentine, Pierre; Swann, Abigail S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Scheff, Jacob

2018-04-01

Predicting how increasing atmospheric CO2 will affect the hydrologic cycle is of utmost importance for a range of applications ranging from ecological services to human life and activities. A typical perspective is that hydrologic change is driven by precipitation and radiation changes due to climate change, and that the land surface will adjust. Using Earth system models with decoupled surface (vegetation physiology) and atmospheric (radiative) CO2 responses, we here show that the CO2 physiological response has a dominant role in evapotranspiration and evaporative fraction changes and has a major effect on long-term runoff compared with radiative or precipitation changes due to increased atmospheric CO2. This major effect is true for most hydrological stress variables over the largest fraction of the globe, except for soil moisture, which exhibits a more nonlinear response. This highlights the key role of vegetation in controlling future terrestrial hydrologic response and emphasizes that the carbon and water cycles are intimately coupled over land.

Surface-Atmosphere Moisture Interactions in the Frozen Ground Regions of Eurasia.

PubMed

Ford, Trent W; Frauenfeld, Oliver W

2016-01-18

Climate models simulate an intensifying Arctic hydrologic cycle in response to climatic warming, however the role of surface-atmosphere interactions from degrading frozen ground is unclear in these projections. Using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data in high-latitude Eurasia, we examine long-term variability in surface-atmosphere coupling as represented by the statistical relationship between surface evaporative fraction (EF) and afternoon precipitation. Changes in EF, precipitation, and their statistical association are then related to underlying permafrost type and snow cover. Results indicate significant positive trends in July EF in the Central Siberian Plateau, corresponding to significant increases in afternoon precipitation. The positive trends are only significant over continuous permafrost, with non-significant or negative EF and precipitation trends over isolated, sporadic, and discontinuous permafrost areas. Concurrently, increasing EF and subsequent precipitation are found to coincide with significant trends in May and June snowmelt, which potentially provides the moisture source for the observed enhanced latent heating and moisture recycling in the region. As climate change causes continuous permafrost to transition to discontinuous, discontinuous to sporadic, sporadic to isolated, and isolated permafrost disappears, this will also alter patterns of atmospheric convection, moisture recycling, and hence the hydrologic cycle in high-latitude land areas.

Assessment of climate and land use change impacts on surface water runoff and connectivity in a continuous permafrost catchment on the Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaedeke, A.; Arp, C. D.; Liljedahl, A. K.; Daanen, R. P.; Whitman, M. S.

2016-12-01

A changing climate is leading to rapid transformations of hydrological processes in low-gradient Arctic terrestrial ecosystems which are dominated by lakes and ponds, wetlands, polygonised tundra, and connecting stream and river networks. The aim of this study is to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water availability and connectivity by utilizing the process-based, spatially distributed hydrological model WaSiM. Crea Creek Watershed (30 km2), which is located in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) was chosen as study area because of its permafrost landforms (bedfast and floating ice lakes, high and low centered polygons), existing observational data (discharge, snow depth, and meteorological variables since 2009), and resource management issues related to permafrost degradation and aquatic habitat dynamics. Foremost of concern is oil development scheduled to begin starting in 2017 with the construction of a permanent road and drilling pad directly within the Crea Watershed. An interdisciplinary team consisting of scientists and regional stakeholders defined the following scenarios to be simulated using WaSiM: (1) industrial development (impact of water removal from lakes (winter) for ice road construction on downstream (summer) runoff), (2) permanent road construction to allow oil companies access to develop and extract petroleum, and (3) potential modes of climate change including warmer, snowier winters and prolonged drought during summers. Downscaled meteorological output from the Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) will be used as the forcing for analysis of climate scenarios alone and for assessment of land-use responses under varying climate scenarios. Our results will provide regional stakeholders with information on the impacts of climate and land use change on surface water connectivity that affects aquatic habitat, as well as lake hydrologic interactions with permafrost. These finding will also benefit local communities that rely on these systems for subsistence and the petroleum industry in the mitigation of environmental impacts to permafrost landscapes within the NPR-A and elsewhere.

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Green roof impact on the hydrological cycle components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamera, Carlotta; Rulli, Maria Cristina; Becciu, Gianfranco; Rosso, Renzo

2013-04-01

In the last decades the importance of storm water management in urban areas has increased considerably, due to both urbanization extension and to a greater concern for environment pollution. Traditional storm water control practices, based on the "all to the sewer" attitude, rely on conveyance to route storm water runoff from urban impervious surfaces towards the nearby natural water bodies. In recent years, infiltration facilities are receiving an increasing attention, due to their particular efficiency in restoring a balance in hydrological cycle quite equal to quite pre-urbanization condition. In particular, such techniques are designed to capture, temporarily retain and infiltrate storm water, promote evapotranspiration and harvest water at the source, encouraging in general evaporation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge and the re-use of storm water. Green roofs are emerging as an increasingly popular Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) technique for urban storm water management. Indeed, they are able to operate hydrologic control over storm water runoff: they allow a significant reduction of peak flows and runoff volumes collected by drainage system, with a consequent reduction of flooding events and pollution masses discharges by CSO. Furthermore green roofs have a positive influence on the microclimate in urban areas by helping in lower urban air temperatures and mitigate the heat island effect. Last but not least, they have the advantage of improving the thermal insulation of buildings, with significant energy savings. A detailed analysis of the hydrological dynamics, connected both with the characteristics of the climatic context and with the green roof technical design, is essential in order to obtain a full characterization of the hydrologic behavior of a green roof system and its effects on the urban water cycle components. The purpose of this paper is to analysis the hydrological effects and urban benefits of the vegetation cover of a building by installing green roofs and, thus, providing a conversion of rooftops in pervious areas; the objective is modeling hydrological fluxes (interception, evapotranspiration, soil water fluxes in the surface and hypodermic components) in relation to climate forcing, basic technology components and geometric characteristics of green roof systems (thickness of the stratigraphy, soil layers and materials, vegetation typology and density). The sensitivity analysis of hydrological processes at different hydrological, climatic and geometric parameters has allowed to draw some general guidelines useful in the design and construction of this type of drainage systems.

Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

PubMed Central

Luo, Kaisheng; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Xiao, Dengpan

2016-01-01

The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. PMID:27647454

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China,more » which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.« less

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mocko, David M.; Sud, Y. C.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Using the storm water management model to predict urban headwater stream hydrological response to climate and land cover change

Treesearch

J.Y. Wu; J.R. Thompson; R.K. Kolka; K.J. Franz; T.W. Stewart

2013-01-01

Streams are natural features in urban landscapes that can provide ecosystem services for urban residents. However, urban streams are under increasing pressure caused by multiple anthropogenic impacts, including increases in human population and associated impervious surface area, and accelerated climate change. The ability to anticipate these changes and better...

Climatic data for Mirror Lake, West Thornton, New Hampshire, 1981-82

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sturrock, A.M.; Buso, D.C.; Bieber, G.M.; Engelbrecht, L.G.; Winter, T.C.

1984-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Mirror Lake, (north-central) New Hampshire includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: temperature of lake water surface, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation and solar radiation. Data are collected at raft and land stations. (USGS)

Framework for a U.S. Geological Survey Hydrologic Climate-Response Program in Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Lent, Robert M.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2009-01-01

This report presents a framework for a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) hydrologic climate-response program designed to provide early warning of changes in the seasonal water cycle of Maine. Climate-related hydrologic changes on Maine's rivers and lakes in the winter and spring during the last century are well documented, and several river and lake variables have been shown to be sensitive to air-temperature changes. Monitoring of relevant hydrologic data would provide important baseline information against which future climate change can be measured. The framework of the hydrologic climate-response program presented here consists of four major parts: (1) identifying homogeneous climate-response regions; (2) identifying hydrologic components and key variables of those components that would be included in a hydrologic climate-response data network - as an example, streamflow has been identified as a primary component, with a key variable of streamflow being winter-spring streamflow timing; the data network would be created by maintaining existing USGS data-collection stations and establishing new ones to fill data gaps; (3) regularly updating historical trends of hydrologic data network variables; and (4) establishing basins for process-based studies. Components proposed for inclusion in the hydrologic climate-response data network have at least one key variable for which substantial historical data are available. The proposed components are streamflow, lake ice, river ice, snowpack, and groundwater. The proposed key variables of each component have extensive historical data at multiple sites and are expected to be responsive to climate change in the next few decades. These variables are also important for human water use and (or) ecosystem function. Maine would be divided into seven climate-response regions that follow major river-basin boundaries (basins subdivided to hydrologic units with 8-digit codes or larger) and have relatively homogeneous climates. Key hydrologic variables within each climate-response region would be analyzed regularly to maintain up-to-date analyses of year-to-year variability, decadal variability, and longer term trends. Finally, one basin in each climate-response region would be identified for process-based hydrologic and ecological studies.

Hydrological and geomorphological controls of malaria transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, M. W.; Macklin, M. G.; Thomas, C. J.

2013-01-01

Malaria risk is linked inextricably to the hydrological and geomorphological processes that form vector breeding sites. Yet environmental controls of malaria transmission are often represented by temperature and rainfall amounts, ignoring hydrological and geomorphological influences altogether. Continental-scale studies incorporate hydrology implicitly through simple minimum rainfall thresholds, while community-scale coupled hydrological and entomological models do not represent the actual diversity of the mosquito vector breeding sites. The greatest range of malaria transmission responses to environmental factors is observed at the catchment scale where seemingly contradictory associations between rainfall and malaria risk can be explained by hydrological and geomorphological processes that govern surface water body formation and persistence. This paper extends recent efforts to incorporate ecological factors into malaria-risk models, proposing that the same detailed representation be afforded to hydrological and, at longer timescales relevant for predictions of climate change impacts, geomorphological processes. We review existing representations of environmental controls of malaria and identify a range of hydrologically distinct vector breeding sites from existing literature. We illustrate the potential complexity of interactions among hydrology, geomorphology and vector breeding sites by classifying a range of water bodies observed in a catchment in East Africa. Crucially, the mechanisms driving surface water body formation and destruction must be considered explicitly if we are to produce dynamic spatial models of malaria risk at catchment scales.

Hydrologic Implications of Dynamical and Statistical Approaches to Downscaling Climate Model Outputs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Andrew W; Leung, Lai R; Sridhar, V

Six approaches for downscaling climate model outputs for use in hydrologic simulation were evaluated, with particular emphasis on each method's ability to produce precipitation and other variables used to drive a macroscale hydrology model applied at much higher spatial resolution than the climate model. Comparisons were made on the basis of a twenty-year retrospective (1975–1995) climate simulation produced by the NCAR-DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and the implications of the comparison for a future (2040–2060) PCM climate scenario were also explored. The six approaches were made up of three relatively simple statistical downscaling methods – linear interpolation (LI), spatial disaggregationmore » (SD), and bias-correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) – each applied to both PCM output directly (at T42 spatial resolution), and after dynamical downscaling via a Regional Climate Model (RCM – at ½-degree spatial resolution), for downscaling the climate model outputs to the 1/8-degree spatial resolution of the hydrological model. For the retrospective climate simulation, results were compared to an observed gridded climatology of temperature and precipitation, and gridded hydrologic variables resulting from forcing the hydrologic model with observations. The most significant findings are that the BCSD method was successful in reproducing the main features of the observed hydrometeorology from the retrospective climate simulation, when applied to both PCM and RCM outputs. Linear interpolation produced better results using RCM output than PCM output, but both methods (PCM-LI and RCM-LI) lead to unacceptably biased hydrologic simulations. Spatial disaggregation of the PCM output produced results similar to those achieved with the RCM interpolated output; nonetheless, neither PCM nor RCM output was useful for hydrologic simulation purposes without a bias-correction step. For the future climate scenario, only the BCSD-method (using PCM or RCM) was able to produce hydrologically plausible results. With the BCSD method, the RCM-derived hydrology was more sensitive to climate change than the PCM-derived hydrology.« less

Global estimation of evapotranspiration using a leaf area index-based surface energy and water balance model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Studies of global hydrologic cycles, carbon cycles and climate change are greatly facilitated when global estimates of evapotranspiration (E) are available. We have developed an air-relative-humidity-based two-source (ARTS) E model that simulates the surface energy balance, soil water balance, and e...

Compiling and Mapping Global Permeability of the Unconsolidated and Consolidated Earth: GLobal HYdrogeology MaPS 2.0 (GLHYMPS 2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huscroft, Jordan; Gleeson, Tom; Hartmann, Jens; Börker, Janine

2018-02-01

The spatial distribution of subsurface parameters such as permeability are increasingly relevant for regional to global climate, land surface, and hydrologic models that are integrating groundwater dynamics and interactions. Despite the large fraction of unconsolidated sediments on Earth's surface with a wide range of permeability values, current global, high-resolution permeability maps distinguish solely fine-grained and coarse-grained unconsolidated sediments. Representative permeability values are derived for a wide variety of unconsolidated sediments and applied to a new global map of unconsolidated sediments to produce the first geologically constrained, two-layer global map of shallower and deeper permeability. The new mean logarithmic permeability of the Earth's surface is -12.7 ± 1.7 m2 being 1 order of magnitude higher than that derived from previous maps, which is consistent with the dominance of the coarser sediments. The new data set will benefit a variety of scientific applications including the next generation of climate, land surface, and hydrology models at regional to global scales.

Documentation of a restart option for the U.S. Geological Survey coupled Groundwater and Surface-Water Flow (GSFLOW) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regan, R. Steve; Niswonger, Richard G.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Barlow, Paul M.

2015-10-02

The spin-up simulation should be run for a sufficient length of time necessary to establish antecedent conditions throughout a model domain. Each GSFLOW application can require different lengths of time to account for the hydrologic stresses to propagate through a coupled groundwater and surface-water system. Typically, groundwater hydrologic processes require many years to come into equilibrium with dynamic climate and other forcing (or stress) data, such as precipitation and well pumping, whereas runoff-dominated surface-water processes respond relatively quickly. Use of a spin-up simulation can substantially reduce execution-time requirements for applications where the time period of interest is small compared to the time for hydrologic memory; thus, use of the restart option can be an efficient strategy for forecast and calibration simulations that require multiple simulations starting from the same day.

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied land use planning. The findings of this study will be useful for the water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land use and climate changes in the study catchment. Keywords: land use change, climate change, hydrological impact assessment, Samin catchment

Response of Groundwater Recharge to Potential Future Climate Change in the Grand River Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jyrkama, M. I.; Sykes, J. F.

2004-05-01

The Grand River watershed is situated in south-western Ontario, draining an area of nearly 7000 square kilometres into Lake Erie. Approximately eighty percent of the population in the watershed derive their drinking water from groundwater sources. Quantifying the recharge input to the groundwater system and the impact of climate variability due to climate change is, therefore, essential for ensuring the quantity and sustainability of the watershed's drinking water resources in the future. The primary goal of this study is to investigate the impact of potential future climate changes on groundwater recharge in the Grand River watershed. The physically based hydrologic model HELP3 is used in conjunction with GIS to simulate the past conditions and future changes in evapotranspiration, potential surface runoff, and groundwater recharge rates as a result of projected changes in the regions climate. The climate change projections are based on the general predictions reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001. Forty years of daily historical weather data are used as the reference condition. The impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle over a forty year study period is modelled by perturbing the HELP3 model input parameters using predicted future changes in precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation. The changes in land use and vegetation cover over time were not considered in the study. The results of the study indicate that the overall simulated rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase in the watershed as a result of the projected future climate change. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent and duration of ground frost and shift the springmelt from spring toward winter months, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. This results in decreased surface runoff, higher infiltration, and subsequently increased groundwater recharge. The predicted higher intensity and frequency of future precipitation will not only contribute significantly to increased surface runoff, but also results in higher evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge rates due to increased amounts of available water. Changes in the incoming solar radiation have a minimal impact on the simulated hydrologic processes. The overall simulated average annual recharge in the watershed is predicted to increase by approximately 100 mm/year over the next forty years from 189 mm/year to 289 mm/year.

Developing Flexible, Integrated Hydrologic Modeling Systems for Multiscale Analysis in the Midwest and Great Lakes Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Chiu, C. M.; Sharma, A.; Byun, K.; Hanson, Z.

2016-12-01

Physically based hydrologic modeling of surface and groundwater resources that can be flexibly and efficiently applied to support water resources policy/planning/management decisions at a wide range of spatial and temporal scales are greatly needed in the Midwest, where stakeholder access to such tools is currently a fundamental barrier to basic climate change assessment and adaptation efforts, and also the co-production of useful products to support detailed decision making. Based on earlier pilot studies in the Pacific Northwest Region, we are currently assembling a suite of end-to-end tools and resources to support various kinds of water resources planning and management applications across the region. One of the key aspects of these integrated tools is that the user community can access gridded products at any point along the end-to-end chain of models, looking backwards in time about 100 years (1915-2015), and forwards in time about 85 years using CMIP5 climate model projections. The integrated model is composed of historical and projected future meteorological data based on station observations and statistical and dynamically downscaled climate model output respectively. These gridded meteorological data sets serve as forcing data for the macro-scale VIC hydrologic model implemented over the Midwest at 1/16 degree resolution. High-resolution climate model (4km WRF) output provides inputs for the analyses of urban impacts, hydrologic extremes, agricultural impacts, and impacts to the Great Lakes. Groundwater recharge estimated by the surface water model provides input data for fine-scale and macro-scale groundwater models needed for specific applications. To highlight the multi-scale use of the integrated models in support of co-production of scientific information for decision making, we briefly describe three current case studies addressing different spatial scales of analysis: 1) Effects of climate change on the water balance of the Great Lakes, 2) Future hydropower resources in the St. Joseph River basin, 3) Effects of climate change on carbon cycling in small lakes in the Northern Highland Lakes District.

Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions : An integrated modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Justin L.; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.

Framework for a hydrologic climate-response network in New England

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lent, Robert M.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Luther F.

2015-01-01

Many climate-related hydrologic variables in New England have changed in the past century, and many are expected to change during the next century. It is important to understand and monitor these changes because they can affect human water supply, hydroelectric power generation, transportation infrastructure, and stream and riparian ecology. This report describes a framework for hydrologic monitoring in New England by means of a climate-response network. The framework identifies specific inland hydrologic variables that are sensitive to climate variation; identifies geographic regions with similar hydrologic responses; proposes a fixed-station monitoring network composed of existing streamflow, groundwater, lake ice, snowpack, and meteorological data-collection stations for evaluation of hydrologic response to climate variation; and identifies streamflow basins for intensive, process-based studies and for estimates of future hydrologic conditions.

Developing reservoir monthly inflow forecasts using artificial intelligence and climate phenomenon information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tiantian; Asanjan, Ata Akbari; Welles, Edwin; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Liu, Xiaomang

2017-04-01

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for many purposes. Efficient reservoir operation requires policy makers and operators to understand how reservoir inflows are changing under different hydrological and climatic conditions to enable forecast-informed operations. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining [AI & DM] techniques in assisting reservoir streamflow subseasonal to seasonal forecasts have been increasing. In this study, Random Forest [RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities for predicting 1 month-ahead reservoir inflows for two headwater reservoirs in USA and China. Both current and lagged hydrological information and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e., PDO and ENSO, etc., are selected as predictors for simulating reservoir inflows. Results show (1) three methods are capable of providing monthly reservoir inflows with satisfactory statistics; (2) the results obtained by Random Forest have the best statistical performances compared with the other two methods; (3) another advantage of Random Forest algorithm is its capability of interpreting raw model inputs; (4) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow; and (5) different climate conditions are autocorrelated with up to several months, and the climatic information and their lags are cross correlated with local hydrological conditions in our case studies.

Overview of environmental and hydrogeologic conditions at Dillingham, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palcsak, Betty B.; Dorava, Joseph M.

1994-01-01

The remote city of Dillingham is at the northern end of Bristol Bay in southwestern Alaska. The hydrology of the area is strongly affected by the mild maritime climate and local geologic conditions. Dillingham residents obtain drinking water from both deep and shallow aquifers composed of gravels and sands and separated by layers of clay underlying the community. Alternative sources of drinking water are limited to the development of new wells because surface-water sources are of inadequate quantity or quality or are located at too great a distance from the population. The Federal Aviation Administration owns or operates airway support facilities in Dillingham and wishes to consider the severity of contamination and the current environmental setting when they evaluate options for compliance with environmental regulations at their facilities. This report describes the climate. vegetation, geology, soils, ground-water and surface-water hydrology, and flood potential of the areas surrounding the Federal Aviation Administration facilities near Dillingham.

Assessing surface water availability considering human water use and projected climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, Batool; AghaKouchak, Amir; Mousavi-Baygi, Mohammd; Moftakhari, Hamed; Anjileli, Hassan

2017-04-01

Climate variability along with anthropogenic activities alter the hydrological cycle and local water availability. The overarching goal of this presentation is to demonstrate the compounding interactions between human water use/withdrawals and climate change and variability. We focus on Karkheh River basin and Urmia basin, in western Iran, that have high level of human activity and water use, and suffer from low water productivity. The future of these basins and their growth relies on sustainable water resources and hence, requires a holistic, basin-wide management to cope with water scarcity challenges. In this study, we investigate changes in the hydrology of the basin including human-induced alterations of the system, during the past three decades. Then, we investigate the individual and combined effects of climate variability and human water withdrawals on surface water storage in the 21st century. We use bias-corrected historical simulations and future projections from ensemble mean of eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that, hydrology of the studied basins are significantly dominated by human activities over the baseline period (1976 - 2005). Results show that the increased anthropogenic water demand resulting from substantial socio-economic growth in the past three decades have put significant stress on water resources. We evaluate a number of future water demand scenarios and their interactions with future climate projections. Our results show that by the end of the 21st century, the compounding effects of increased irrigation water demand and precipitation variability may lead to severe local water scarcity in these basins. Our study highlights the necessity for understanding and considering the compounding effects of human water use and future climate projections. Such studies would be useful for improving water management and developing adaption plans in water scarce regions.

EDITORIAL: The Earth radiation balance as driver of the global hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Liepert, Beate

2010-06-01

Variations in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle can have far-reaching effects on living conditions on our planet. While climate change discussions often revolve around possible consequences of future temperature changes, the adaptation to changes in the hydrological cycle may pose a bigger challenge to societies and ecosystems. Floods and droughts are already today amongst the most damaging natural hazards, with floods being globally the most significant disaster type in terms of loss of human life (Jonkman 2005). From an economic perspective, changes in the hydrological cycle can impose great pressures and damages on a variety of industrial sectors, such as water management, urban planning, agricultural production and tourism. Despite their obvious environmental and societal importance, our understanding of the causes and magnitude of the variations of the hydrological cycle is still unsatisfactory (e.g., Ramanathan et al 2001, Ohmura and Wild 2002, Allen and Ingram 2002, Allan 2007, Wild et al 2008, Liepert and Previdi 2009). The link between radiation balance and hydrological cycle Globally, precipitation can be approximated by surface evaporation, since the variability of the atmospheric moisture storage is negligible. This is the case because the fluxes are an order of magnitude larger than the atmospheric storage (423 x 1012 m3 year-1 versus 13 x 1012 m3 according to Baumgartner and Reichel (1975)), the latter being determined by temperature (Clausius-Clapeyron). Hence the residence time of evaporated water in the atmosphere is not more than a few days, before it condenses and falls back to Earth in the form of precipitation. Any change in the globally averaged surface evaporation therefore implies an equivalent change in precipitation, and thus in the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The process of evaporation requires energy, which it obtains from the surface radiation balance (also known as surface net radiation), composed of the absorbed solar and net thermal radiative exchanges at the Earth's surface. Globally averaged, this surface radiation balance is positive, since radiative absorption, scattering and emission in the climate system act to generate an energy surplus at the surface and an energy deficit in the atmosphere (Liepert 2010). Evaporation, or more precisely its energy equivalent, the latent heat flux, is the main process that compensates for this imbalance between surface and atmosphere, since the latent heat dominates the convective energy flux over sensible heating. The radiative energy surplus at the surface is thus mainly consumed by evaporation and moist convection and subsequently released in the atmosphere through condensation. This implies that any alterations in the available radiative energy will induce changes in the water fluxes. Our focus in this editorial is therefore on the surface radiation balance as the principal driver of the global hydrological cycle. Note that this energetic view is in agreement with that of Richter and Xie (2008) who argue that the spatial and temporal behaviour of the process of evaporation is controlled by surface and atmospheric properties such as atmospheric stability, wind speed, moisture deficit and moisture availability. From radiation theory it is expected that with increasing radiative absorption due to abundance of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and consequent warming, the emission of thermal energy from the atmosphere towards the surface is increasing (known as downward thermal radiation). This enhances the radiative energy surplus at the surface, and, where surface water is not limited, fuels evaporation besides warming the Earth's surface. The enhanced greenhouse effect therefore tends to accelerate the hydrological cycle, as also shown in many climate model simulations with increasing levels of greenhouse gases (e.g., IPCC 2007, but also see Yang et al 2003, Andrews et al 2009). We can assume that the increase in greenhouse gases since preindustrial times had already led to a substantial increase of downward thermal radiation during the 20th century, even though direct observational evidence is sparse and restricted to the latter part of the century (Philipona et al 2004, Wild et al 2008). Precipitation records averaged over global land surfaces indicate an overall, albeit not significant, increase in precipitation and intensification of the hydrological cycle over the 20th century (Trenberth et al 2007), in line with the aforementioned surface energy gain from the increased greenhouse gases and related downward thermal radiation. However, the observations show also that precipitation has not simply followed the increasing greenhouse gas forcing, but has undergone strong decadal variations, with extended periods of both increases and decreases. This is evident in figure 1(a), which shows global land precipitation over the 20th century as determined from the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN; Peterson and Vose 1997, see also Trenberth et al 2007, figure 3.12). An increase in precipitation can be noted in the 1940s, followed by an overall decrease until the mid-1980s, and a renewed increase more recently. Figure 1 Figure 1. Observed terrestrial precipitation anomalies (a) and the longest observational surface solar radiation record measured in Stockholm (b) covering the period 1923-2000 (annual means). The 11-year running means are given in blue. Precipitation data from GHCN, radiation data from GEBA. However, not only greenhouse-gas-induced thermal radiation changes, but also solar radiation, as a result of changes in the atmospheric transmission, can alter the surface radiation balance and thus the amount of energy available to drive the hydrological cycle. Solar forcings may be even more efficient in modifying the intensity of the hydrological cycle than thermal forcings, as indicated by a higher hydrological sensitivity (e.g., Allen and Ingram 2002, Liepert et al 2004). The hydrological sensitivity, defined as change of precipitation per unit temperature change, is found to be 2-3 times larger under solar forcings than under thermal forcings (Liepert et al 2004, Andrews et al 2009). This is related to the fact that solar forcings apply at the surface directly because of the high solar transparency of the atmosphere compared to thermal radiation. Solar forcings thus effectively alter the surface radiation balance and the associated imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents, which needs to be compensated for by convective fluxes and related evaporation/precipitation. Greenhouse-gas-induced thermal forcings, on the other hand, heat the atmosphere directly through radiative absorption and the surface indirectly through downward thermal radiation. Thermal forcings are therefore less effective in strengthening the imbalance between the surface and atmospheric energy contents. Hence the required changes in the compensational convective fluxes and associated evaporation/precipitation are smaller (equation (4) in Liepert and Previdi 2009). The different effects of solar and thermal forcings become particularly evident in the direct (fast) response of the hydrological cycle to them, while the subsequent longer-term response of the hydrological cycle, including all feedbacks induced by these forcings, is similar between the two forcing mechanisms (Andrews et al 2009, Lambert and Webb 2008). The direct effect of doubling of CO2 concentration reduces the precipitation increase in climate models by about 25% (Lambert and Webb 2008), while such compensational effects do not apply with solar forcings. Recent evidence suggests that the amount of solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface (hereafter referred to as downward solar radiation) has indeed not been stable over time but has undergone significant variations on decadal timescales. This evidence comes from the networks of surface radiation measurements taken around the globe which became operational on a widespread basis during the 1950s. Specifically, the measurements show a predominant decrease in downward solar radiation from the 1950s up to the 1980s (known as 'global dimming') and a partial recovery thereafter at many of the sites (known as 'brightening') (e.g., Gilgen et al 1998, Stanhill and Cohen 2001, Liepert 2002, Wild et al 2005, Wild 2009a). The consecutive downward and upward trends have at least to some extent been attributed to increasing and decreasing air pollution, respectively (Streets et al 2009), apart from the natural inter-decadal variability of cloudiness and volcanic eruptions. The longest observational records show in addition a tendency for an increase in downward solar radiation in the first part of the 20th century ('early brightening'). An illustrative example is given in figure 1(b), which depicts the longest continuous record of downward solar radiation measured in Stockholm. This series, starting in 1923, shows an increase in the 1930s and 1940s, an overall decrease from the 1950s up to the 1980s and a more recent recovery. This evolution is, surprisingly, at least qualitatively similar to the global land precipitation record shown in figure 1(a). Although a comparison of a radiation time series measured at a single station with a global land-averaged precipitation time series is by no means representative, it may illustrate the above point of a potential close link between decadal variations of surface radiation and precipitation. Attempts have been made to infer decadal changes in the surface radiation balance based on both modelling and observational approaches. Liepert et al (2004) analyzed equilibrium experiments with a climate model with greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations representative for mid-1880s and mid-1980s conditions, respectively. They noted a decrease in absorbed solar radiation at the surface of 3.8 Wm-2 globally, mainly due to the aerosol direct and indirect effects, which are larger than the increased greenhouse effect of 1.9 Wm-2. This resulted in a reduction of net surface radiation of 1.9 Wm-2 globally, and a related spin down of the simulated hydrological cycle. Wild et al (2004), based on observational evidence, estimated that the decrease in downward solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s may have overcompensated the increase in the greenhouse-gas-induced downward thermal radiation during the same period, thus implying a decrease in the surface radiation balance over this period. This fits well with the overall decrease in global terrestrial precipitation between the 1950s and 1980s seen in figure 1(a). This decrease is on the order of 30-40 mm, which corresponds to roughly 3 Wm-2 latent heat equivalent, and which would imply a similar decrease in surface net radiation. Assuming further a decreasing net surface thermal cooling of -1 Wm-2 over this period (Wild et al 2004), this would require an overall decline of about 4 Wm-2 in surface solar radiation to balance it, which is not unrealistic. Since the 1980s, however, there are indications that downward solar radiation overall has recovered and contributed to the increase in the radiative imbalance at the surface, which had increased already due to the increasing downward thermal radiation (Wild et al 2008, see also figure 1(b). This increase in the surface radiation balance, estimated at 2 Wm-2 decade-1 in Wild et al (2008), fits the observational evidence for a recent increase in terrestrial precipitation and associated intensification of the hydrological cycle (figure 1(a)). Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance is therefore a key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. Surface radiation balance and the hydrological cycle in climate models A number of recent studies have pointed out that climate models driven with all known historical forcings simulate smaller changes in precipitation than observed over recent decades (Zhang et al 2007, Wentz et al 2007, Allan and Soden 2007, Liepert and Previdi 2009, Wild et al 2008, Wild 2009a), and may underestimate the increase in precipitation extremes with global warming (Allan and Soden 2008). For the present study, in figure 2 we compare precipitation changes during the 20th century over land surfaces as observed (blue lines, equivalent to figure 1(a)) and simulated by 18 individual coupled atmosphere-ocean models (CMIP3 models) used in the IPCC-AR4 report (in red). Shown are annual anomalies with respect to the 20th century means (dashed lines) as well as superimposed 11-year running means (solid lines) that highlight the decadal variations in both models and observations. None of the models captures the observed decadal variations during the 20th century. Particularly, none of the models qualitatively reproduces the sequence of increase in the 1930s/1940s, decrease from 1950s to the 1980s and renewed increase to 2000, and the correlations between observations and models are insignificant. Standard deviations of the 11-year running means, indicative of the amplitude of decadal variations in the 20th century annual precipitation, amount to 10.7 mm in the GHNC observations and 5.0 mm on average in the models (with a range from 2.6 mm to 10.6 mm). The closest standard deviation to the observations with 10.6 mm is found in the miroc_medres model simulation; however this simulation does not reproduce the main temporal characteristics of the observed time series either (figure 2). Thus, none of the models is capable of simulating the full extent and temporal evolution of decadal variations in 20th century terrestrial precipitation (see also Liepert and Previdi 2009). Here we argue that, among other possibilities, inadequacies in the simulation of surface radiation balance may contribute to the poor simulation of decadal variations in precipitation during the 20th century seen in figure 2. A closer lookat the simulated evolution of the radiation balance over land surfaces during the 20th century seems to confirm this. Specifically, only half of the models qualitatively reproduce the decrease in the terrestrial surface radiation balance between the 1950s and 1980s and the subsequent recovery as indicated in estimates based on observations. Quantitatively, from 1950 to 1985, the linear change in the model-calculated surface radiation balance is on average almost zero, as opposed to the observational evidence for declining surface radiation balance over this period (Wild et al 2004). Over the period 1985-2000, the multi-model mean amounts to an increase of 0.22 Wm-2 decade-1 (with a range from -0.10 to 0.57 Wm-2 decade-1, which is an order of magnitude smaller than for example the estimate given in Wild et al (2008). Figure 2 Figure 2. Terrestrial precipitation anomalies during the 20th century as observed (in blue) and simulated by various models used in the IPCC 4th assessment report and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) (in red). Annual mean time series given as dashed lines, 11-year running means as solid lines. Reference period is the entire 20th century. Annual precipitation observations from GHCN (Peterson and Vose 1997), units mm. Truly global observational estimates of precipitation changes (covering both land and oceans) exist only since 1987 with the advent of satellite data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Based on these observations, Wentz et al (2007) determined an increase in global mean precipitation of 13.2 +/- 4.8 mm yr-1 decade-1 over the period 1987-2006. To induce such an increase, which corresponds to a latent heat release of approximately 1 Wm-2 per decade, an increase in the globally averaged surface radiation balance of at least the same amount would be required accordingly. We obtained this estimate under the assumption of (1) an unchanged sensible heat flux and (2) an unchanged top of atmosphere radiation balance and corresponding surface heat uptake by the ocean and landmasses, so that globally the change in surface net radiation is balanced by the change in latent heat flux. Regarding assumption (1), the global mean sensible heat flux is an order of magnitude smaller than the latent heat flux, and therefore even large relative changes in sensible heating would be small in absolute terms. Assumption (2) is a conservative assumption and can be considered an upper limit because ocean and land heat uptake has likely subtracted a portion of the radiative energy available for evaporation (see, e.g., Hansen et al 2005) over recent decades. Therefore, if the Wentz et al (2007) estimated precipitation increase is unbiased, this would likely require a global mean surface radiation increase of more than 1 Wm-2 per decade (cf also the estimated 2 Wm-2 per decade increase in surface net radiation over land surfaces in Wild et al (2008)). Current climate models, on the other hand, show a much smaller average increase of less than 0.3 Wm-2 per decade. The underestimation of decadal scale variations in downward solar radiation and a lack of dimming and brightening in the models (Romanou et al 2007, Bodas-Salcedo et al 2008, Wild 2009b, Ruckstuhl and Norris 2009) could have affected the simulations of the surface radiation balance. While the response to the gradually increasing greenhouse gases in the thermal component of the surface energy balance is well understood and adequately simulated, much more uncertainties are apparent in the solar component. Since the hydrological cycle may respond particularly sensitive to non-homogeneous short-living types of solar forcings such as aerosols (see discussion above), the identification of the origins of the uncertainties in the solar forcings is of primary importance for predicting future changes. Uncertainties may be related to weaknesses in three areas: (1) Deficiencies in the parameterization of the relevant processes: aerosol-cloud interactions are still poorly understood and related model representations are subject to considerable uncertainties or entirely neglected. Note that only few models include the effects of aerosols on clouds, which dominate the hydrological response as shown in Romanou et al (2007). Furthermore, many models only consider the temporal variations in scattering sulphur aerosol and neglect changes in other aerosol types such as absorbing black carbon or desert dust, which would enhance the degree of freedom of aerosol-cloud interactions and change the stability of the atmosphere. (2) Uncertainties in the highly variable spatial and temporal distributions of global aerosol fields used in the 20th century simulations as e.g. shown by Ruckstuhl and Norris (2009). Also, most models still prescribe fixed spatial aerosol burdens in the atmosphere, rather than aerosol and aerosol precursor emission fields, which could enhance the degree of freedom of the global aerosol system. (3) Shortcomings in the representation of the natural variability in atmosphere/ocean exchanges of energy and water that result in variations of convection and consequently in cloudiness and humidity. For example state-of-the-art climate models do not realistically reproduce decadal variations in the ocean atmosphere system such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) or El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that may have significant effects. Conclusions To summarize, we emphasize the prominent role of the surface radiation balance as a key determinant of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. There are indications that the surface radiation balance underwent significant decadal variations during the 20th century, which are reflected in the variations of the intensity of the global hydrological cycle. The current generation of climate models does not show such strong variability in either of these quantities. Here we point to the inadequate representation of surface solar dimming and brightening as a potential cause of these model deficiencies. This is further supported by the recent evidence that solar forcings are more effective in altering the intensity of the global hydrological cycle than their thermal (greenhouse-gas-forced) counterparts. Improved knowledge of variations of the components of the surface radiation balance as well as their underlying forcing factors are therefore key to our understanding of past, present and future variations in the intensity of the hydrological cycle. The recent implementation of advanced space-borne and surface-based monitoring systems should allow for more rigorous constraints of the radiative drivers behind the hydrological cycle. Together with improved modelling capabilities, including sophisticated interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics schemes, these advances should result in more realistic simulations and predictions of the intensity of the hydrological cycle in the near future. Acknowledgements Particular thanks go to Professor Christoph Schär for his valuable input to the manuscript and for his support. Richard Allan's comments on the manuscript were highly appreciated. This study is part of the National Centre for Competence in Climate Research (NCCR Climate) project HYCLIM (Intensification of the water cycle: scenarios, processes and extremes) supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation, and was further sponsored by National Aeronautics and Space Agency Modeling Analysis and Prediction Program NASA-MAP grant NNX09AV16G. We acknowledge the international modeling groups for providing their data for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) for collecting and archiving the model data, the JSC/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) and their Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and Climate Simulation Panel for organizing the model data analysis activity, and the IPCC WG1 TSU for technical support. The IPCC Data Archive at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is supported by the Office of Science, US Department of Energy. 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The role of groundwater in hydrological processes and memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Min-Hui

The interactions between soil moisture and groundwater play important roles in controlling Earth's climate, by changing the terrestrial water cycle. However, most contemporary land surface models (LSMs) used for climate modeling lack any representation of groundwater aquifers. In this dissertation, the effects of water table dynamics on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model (CLM) and Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) hydrology and land-atmosphere simulations are investigated. First, a simple, lumped unconfined aquifer model is incorporated into the CLM, in which the water table is interactively coupled to the soil moisture through groundwater recharge fluxes. The recent availability of GRACE water storage data provides a unique opportunity to constrain LSMs simulations of terrestrial hydrology. A multi-objective calibration framework using GRACE and streamflow data is developed. This approach improves parameter estimation and reduces the uncertainty of water table simulations in the CLM. Next, experiments are conducted with the off-line CLM to explore the effects of groundwater on land surface memory. Results show that feedbacks of groundwater on land surface memory can be positive, negative, or neutral depending on water table dynamics. The CAM-CLM is further utilized to investigate the effects of water table dynamics on spatial-temporal variations of precipitation. Results indicate that groundwater can increase short-term (seasonal) and long-term (interannual) memory of precipitation for some regions with suitable groundwater table depth. Finally, lower tropospheric water vapor is increased due to the presence of groundwater in the model. However, the impact of groundwater on the spatial distribution of precipitation is not globally homogeneous. In the boreal summer, tropical land regions show a positive (negative) anomaly over the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. The increased tropical precipitation follows the climatology of the convective zone rather than that of evapotranspiration. In contrast, evapotranspiration is the major contribution to the increased precipitation in the transition climatic zone (e.g., Central North America), where the land and atmosphere are strongly coupled. This dissertation reveals the highly nonlinear responses of precipitation and soil moisture to the groundwater representation in the model, and also underscores the importance of subsurface hydrological memory processes in the climate system.

Widespread surface meltwater drainage in Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kingslake, J.; Ely, J.; Das, I.; Bell, R. E.

2016-12-01

Surface meltwater is thought to cause ice-shelf disintegration, which accelerates the contribution of ice sheets to sea-level rise. Antarctic surface melting is predicted to increase and trigger further ice-shelf disintegration during this century. These climate-change impacts could be modulated by an active hydrological network analogous to the one in operation in Greenland. Despite some observations of Antarctic surface and sub-surface hydrological systems, large-scale active surface drainage in Antarctica has rarely been studied. We use satellite imagery and aerial photography to reveal widespread active hydrology on the surface of the Antarctic Ice Sheet as far south as 85o and as high as 1800 m a.s.l., often near mountain peaks that protrude through the ice (nunataks) and relatively low-albedo `blue-ice areas'. Despite predominantly sub-zero regional air temperatures, as simulated by a regional climate model, Antarctic active drainage has persisted for decades, transporting water through surface streams and feeding vast melt ponds up to 80 km long. Drainage networks (the largest are over 100 km in length) form on flat ice shelves, steep outlet glaciers and ice-sheet flanks across the West and East Antarctica Ice Sheets. Motivated by the proximity of many drainage systems to low-albedo rock and blue-ice areas, we hypothesize a positive feedback between exposed-rock extent, BIA formation, melting and ice-sheet thinning. This feedback relies on drainage moving water long distances from areas near exposed rock, across the grounding line onto and across ice shelves - a process we observe, but had previously thought to be unlikely in Antarctica. This work highlights previously-overlooked processes, not captured by current regional-scale models, which may accelerate the retreat of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Modeling the role of groundwater and vegetation in the hydrological response of tropical glaciated watersheds to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ng, G. H. C.; Wickert, A. D.; McLaughlin, R.; La Frenierre, J.; Liess, S.; Saberi, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change projections show greater rates at higher elevations, making tropical glaciated regions some of the most vulnerable hydrological systems and the earliest windows into changing conditions in mountainous watersheds. Many of the subsistence agrarian communities below Volcán Chimborazo, Ecuador, experience water stress, heightening the urgency to understand the hydrological impacts of climate change. Previous hydrochemical and physical observations suggest that a significant fraction of glacial melt may first recharge underlying groundwater before discharging to streams at lower elevations. This has important implications for tracking hydrological response to climate change, due to differences in the spatiotemporal behavior of surface water vs. groundwater. However, differentiating meltwater-sourced and precipitation-sourced groundwater throughout the watershed poses a challenge in elucidating the influence of accelerated but finite glacial melt on streamflow. In addition to glacial melt, recently noted upslope vegetation migration on Chimborazo will likely complicate future predictions of water availability by influencing the relative amounts of groundwater sources and changing discharge through altered evapotranspiration along riparian zones. To investigate the roles of groundwater pathways and vegetation on glacial melt contributions to streamflow, we implement the coupled groundwater/rainfall-runoff model GSFLOW. We infer hydrogeological model inputs from geological maps of Chimborazo and vegetation properties from a combination of remotely sensed imagery and in-situ surveys. Dynamically downscaled meteorological state variables, checked against field data, force the model. Such a model enables the quantification of the current meltwater contribution to streamflow at critical water extraction points and allows us to probe potential meltwater and water resource changes under future climate change scenarios.

Terraforming planet Dune: Climate-vegetation interactions on a sandy planet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cresto Aleina, F.; Baudena, M.; D'Andrea, F.; Provenzale, A.

2012-04-01

The climate and the biosphere of planet Earth interact in multiple, complicated ways and on many spatial and temporal scales. Some of these processes can be studied with the help of simple mathematical models, as done for the effects of vegetation on albedo in desert areas and for the mechanisms by which terrestrial vegetation affects water fluxes in arid environments. Conceptual models of this kind do not attempt at providing quantitative descriptions of the climate-biosphere interaction, but rather to explore avenues and mechanisms which can play a role in the real system, providing inspiration for further research. In this work, we develop a simple conceptual box model in the spirit illustrated above, to explore whether and how vegetation affects the planetary hydrologic cycle. We imagine a planet with no oceans and whose surface is entirely covered with sand, quite similar to planet Dune of the science-fiction series by Frank Herbert (1965). We suppose that water is entirely in the sand, below the surface. Without vegetation, only evaporation takes place, affecting the upper sand layer for a maximum depth of a few cm. The amount of water that is evaporated in the atmosphere is relatively small, and not sufficient to trigger a full hydrologic cycle. The question is what happens to this planet when vegetation is introduced: the root depth can reach a meter or more, and plant transpiration can then transfer a much larger amount of water to the atmosphere. One may wonder whether the presence of vegetation is sufficient to trigger a hydrologic cycle with enough precipitation to sustain the vegetation itself and, if the answer is positive, what is the minimum vegetation cover that is required to maintain the cycle active. In more precise terms, we want to know whether the introduction of vegetation and of the evapotranspiration feedback allows for the existence of multiple equilibria (or solutions) in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system. Although the box model introduced here is best formulated in terms of a hypothetical sandy planet, the results can be used to study the hydrologic cycle on wide continental regions of the Earth. On the other hand, our findings show how the definition of a habitable climate may also depend on surface characteristics, and in particular on biosphere and climate interactions.

Modeling Forest Management Strategies for Hydrological Climate Change Adaptation in the upper Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Z.; Sun, N.; Wigmosta, M. S.; Hessburg, P. F., Sr.; Coleman, A. M.; Salter, B.

2017-12-01

Management of forest lands in the Upper Columbia River basin is necessary to ensure the sustainability of natural ecosystems and enhance protection and recovery of fish and wildlife populations. By 2030, summertime surface water demand is expected to significantly exceed supply in most years in many Upper Columbia tributaries; in some years, a portion of these tributaries will exceed supply even outside the summer months. Forest restoration (i.e., timber harvest, prescribed burning, thinning) reduces canopy cover and, subsequently, has been shown in many cases to increase snow accumulation and total runoff volume. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to predict hydrologic properties and changes associated with realistic forest restoration scenarios prescribed in high spatial detail (90 m) within snow-dominated watersheds of the upper Columbia under current and future climate conditions. We consider changes in hydrological processes related to snowpack, stream discharge, and water temperature. Model results suggest forest restoration will impact annual water yield under both current and future climate conditions and the impact of forest restoration on the timing of snowmelt and streamflow varies from year to year and is highly dependent on local meteorological conditions and particular forest restoration scenarios. Corresponding changes in water temperature will also be discussed.

Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, Ian M.; Maxwell, Reed M.

2012-12-01

Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices.

Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimel, David S.

1992-01-01

Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Numerical modeling of the agricultural-hydrologic system in Punjab, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyblade, M.; Russo, T. A.; Zikatanov, L.; Zipp, K.

2017-12-01

The goal of food security for India's growing population is threatened by the decline in freshwater resources due to unsustainable water use for irrigation. The issue is acute in parts of Punjab, India, where small landholders produce a major quantity of India's food with declining groundwater resources. To further complicate this problem, other regions of the state are experiencing groundwater logging and salinization, and are reliant on canal systems for fresh water delivery. Due to the lack of water use records, groundwater consumption for this study is estimated with available data on crop yields, climate, and total canal water delivery. The hydrologic and agricultural systems are modeled using appropriate numerical methods and software. This is a state-wide hydrologic numerical model of Punjab that accounts for multiple aquifer layers, agricultural water demands, and interactions between the surface canal system and groundwater. To more accurately represent the drivers of agricultural production and therefore water use, we couple an economic crop optimization model with the hydrologic model. These tools will be used to assess and optimize crop choice scenarios based on farmer income, food production, and hydrologic system constraints. The results of these combined models can be used to further understand the hydrologic system response to government crop procurement policies and climate change, and to assess the effectiveness of possible water conservation solutions.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Denis; Person, Mark; Daannen, Ronnie; Locke, Sharon; Dahlstrom, Dave; Zabielski, Victor; Winter, Thomas C.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Wright, Herb; Ito, Emi; Nieber, John L.; Gutowski, William J.

2006-04-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal.

Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohen, D.; Person, M.; Daannen, R.; Locke, S.; Dahlstrom, D.; Zabielski, V.; Winter, T.C.; Rosenberry, D.O.; Wright, H.; Ito, E.; Nieber, J.L.; Gutowski, W.J.

2006-01-01

This paper analyzes the effects of geology and geomorphology on surface-water/-groundwater interactions, evapotranspiration, and recharge under conditions of long-term climatic change. Our analysis uses hydrologic data from the glaciated Crow Wing watershed in central Minnesota, USA, combined with a hydrologic model of transient coupled unsaturated/saturated flow (HYDRAT2D). Analysis of historical water-table (1970-1993) and lake-level (1924-2002) records indicates that larger amplitude and longer period fluctuations occur within the upland portions of watersheds due to the response of the aquifer system to relatively short-term climatic fluctuations. Under drought conditions, lake and water-table levels fell by as much as 2-4 m in the uplands but by 1 m in the lowlands. The same pattern can be seen on millennial time scales. Analysis of Holocene lake-core records indicates that Moody Lake, located near the outlet of the Crow Wing watershed, fell by as much as 4 m between about 4400 and 7000 yr BP. During the same time, water levels in Lake Mina, located near the upland watershed divide, fell by about 15 m. Reconstructed Holocene climate as represented by HYDRAT2D gives somewhat larger drops (6 and 24 m for Moody Lake and Lake Mina, respectively). The discrepancy is probably due to the effect of three-dimensional flow. A sensitivity analysis was also carried out to study how aquifer hydraulic conductivity and land-surface topography can influence water-table fluctuations, wetlands formation, and evapotranspiration. The models were run by recycling a wet year (1985, 87 cm annual precipitation) over a 10-year period followed by 20 years of drier and warmer climate (1976, 38 cm precipitation). Model results indicated that groundwater-supported evapotranspiration accounted for as much as 12% (10 cm) of evapotranspiration. The aquifers of highest hydraulic conductivity had the least amount of groundwater-supported evapotranspiration owing to a deep water table. Recharge was even more sensitive to aquifer hydraulic conductivity, especially in the lowland regions. These findings have important implications for paleoclimatic studies, because the hydrologic response of a surface-water body will vary across the watershed to a given climate signal. ?? 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A

2005-11-29

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

An ostracode based paleolimnologic and paleohydrologic history of Death Valley: 200 to 0 ka

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forester, R.M.; Lowenstein, T.K.; Spencer, R.J.

2005-01-01

Death Valley, a complex tectonic and hydrologic basin, was cored from its lowest surface elevation to a depth of 186 m. The sediments range from bedded primary halite to black muds. Continental ostracodes found in the black muds indicate that those sediments were deposited in a variety of hydrologic settings ranging from deep, relatively fresh water to shallow saline lakes to spring discharge supported wetlands. The alkaline-enriched, calcium-depleted paleolake waters indicate extrabasinal streamflow and basin-margin spring discharge. The alkaline-depleted, calcium-enriched paleowetland waters indicate intrabasinal spring discharge. During Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS 6, ca. 180-140 ka) the hydrologic settings were highly variable, implying that complex relations existed between climate and basin hydrology. Termination II (MIS 6 to MIS 5E) was a complex multicyclic sequence of paleoenvironments, implying that climates oscillated between high and low effective moisture. MIS 4 (ca. 73-61 ka) was a spring discharge supported wetland complex. During MIS 2 (ca. 20-12 ka) the hydrologic settings were variable, although they are not fully understood because some black muds deposited during that time were lost during coring. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

PubMed

McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

2017-08-01

Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outflow Channels Influencing Martian Climate: Global Circulation Model Simulations with Emplaced Water

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santiago, D. L.; Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R. M.; Sloan, L. C.; Asphaug, E. I.

2005-01-01

The existence of surface water on Mars in past geologic epochs is inferred on the basis of geomorphologic interpretation of spaceflight images, and is supported by the recent Mars Odyssey identification of ice-rich soils [1]. The Mars Exploration Rovers have provided further chemical evidence for past surface hydrologic activity [2]. One issue is whether this water-rich climate ever existed in a steady state, or whether it was triggered by catastrophic events such as large impacts [3], and/ or catastrophic outburst floods, the topic of consideration here.

Applications of a thermal-based two-source energy balance model using Priestley-Taylor approach for surface temperature partitioning (TSEB_PTT) under advective conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Operational application of the two source energy balance model (TSEB) which can estimate evaportranspiration (ET) and the components evaporation (E), transpiration (T) of the land surface in different climates is very useful for many applications in hydrology and agriculture. The TSEB model uses an ...

Multi-decadal Hydrological Retrospective: Case study of Amazon floods and droughts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Espinoza, Jhan Carlo; Collischonn, Walter

2017-06-01

Recently developed methodologies such as climate reanalysis make it possible to create a historical record of climate systems. This paper proposes a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), which essentially simulates large rainfall datasets, using this as input into hydrological models to develop a record of past hydrology, making it possible to analyze past floods and droughts. We developed a methodology for the Amazon basin, where studies have shown an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in recent decades. We used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) as input for a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH). HR products were then validated against several in situ discharge gauges controlling the main Amazon sub-basins, focusing on maximum and minimum events. For the most accurate HR, based on performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts, comparing the results with in-situ observations. A statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and droughts in the entire Amazon basin. Results indicate that HR could represent most past extreme events well, compared with in-situ observed data, and was consistent with many events reported in literature. Because of their flow duration, some minor regional events were not reported in literature but were captured by HR. To represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events, we believe it is feasible to use some large precipitation datasets such as i) climate reanalysis, which is mainly based on a land surface component, and ii) datasets based on merged products. A significant upward trend in intensity was seen in maximum annual discharge (related to floods) in western and northwestern regions and for minimum annual discharge (related to droughts) in south and central-south regions of the Amazon basin. Because of the global coverage of rainfall datasets, this methodology can be transferred to other regions for better estimation of future hydrological behavior and its impact on society.

Uncertainty and extreme events in future climate and hydrologic projections for the Pacific Northwest: providing a basis for vulnerability and core/corridor assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Mauger, Guillaume S.; Salathe, Eric P.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Lee, Se-Yeun; Stumbaugh, Matt R.; Elsner, Marketa; Norheim, Robert; Lutz, Eric R.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this project was to (1) provide an internally-consistent set of downscaled projections across the Western U.S., (2) include information about projection uncertainty, and (3) assess projected changes of hydrologic extremes. These objectives were designed to address decision support needs for climate adaptation and resource management actions. Specifically, understanding of uncertainty in climate projections – in particular for extreme events – is currently a key scientific and management barrier to adaptation planning and vulnerability assessment. The new dataset fills in the Northwest domain to cover a key gap in the previous dataset, adds additional projections (both from other global climate models and a comparison with dynamical downscaling) and includes an assessment of changes to flow and soil moisture extremes. This new information can be used to assess variations in impacts across the landscape, uncertainty in projections, and how these differ as a function of region, variable, and time period. In this project, existing University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (UW CIG) products were extended to develop a comprehensive data archive that accounts (in a reigorous and physically based way) for climate model uncertainty in future climate and hydrologic scenarios. These products can be used to determine likely impacts on vegetation and aquatic habitat in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, including WA, OR, ID, northwest MT to the continental divide, northern CA, NV, UT, and the Columbia Basin portion of western WY New data series and summaries produced for this project include: 1) extreme statistics for surface hydrology (e.g. frequency of soil moisture and summer water deficit) and streamflow (e.g. the 100-year flood, extreme 7-day low flows with a 10-year recurrence interval); 2) snowpack vulnerability as indicated by the ratio of April 1 snow water to cool-season precipitation; and, 3) uncertainty analyses for multiple climate scenarios.

Glaciers and small ice caps in the macro-scale hydrological cycle - an assessment of present conditions and future changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, Richard; Hock, Regine; Prusevich, Alexander; Bliss, Andrew; Radic, Valentina; Glidden, Stanley; Grogan, Danielle; Frolking, Steve

2014-05-01

Glacier and small ice cap melt water contributions to the global hydrologic cycle are an important component of human water supply and for sea level rise. This melt water is used in many arid and semi-arid parts of the world for direct human consumption as well as indirect consumption by irrigation for crops, serving as frozen reservoirs of water that supplement runoff during warm and dry periods of summer when it is needed the most. Additionally, this melt water reaching the oceans represents a direct input to sea level rise and therefore accurate estimates of this contribution have profound economic and geopolitical implications. It has been demonstrated that, on the scale of glacierized river catchments, land surface hydrological models can successfully simulate glacier contribution to streamflow. However, at global scales, the implementation of glacier melt in hydrological models has been rudimentary or non-existent. In this study, a global glacier mass balance model is coupled with the University of New Hampshire Water Balance/Transport Model (WBM) to assess recent and projected future glacier contributions to the hydrological cycle over the global land surface (excluding the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica). For instance, results of WBM simulations indicate that seasonal glacier melt water in many arid climate watersheds comprises 40 % or more of their discharge. Implicitly coupled glacier and WBM models compute monthly glacier mass changes and resulting runoff at the glacier terminus for each individual glacier from the globally complete Randolph Glacier Inventory including over 200 000 glaciers. The time series of glacier runoff is aggregated over each hydrological modeling unit and delivered to the hydrological model for routing downstream and mixing with non-glacial contribution of runoff to each drainage basin outlet. WBM tracks and uses glacial and non-glacial components of the in-stream water for filling reservoirs, transfers of water between drainage basins (inter-basin hydrological transfers), and irrigation along the global system of rivers with net discharge to the ocean. Climate scenarios from global climate models prepared for IPCC AR5 are used to explore an expected range of possible future glacier outflow variability to estimate the impacts on human use of these valuable waters and their poorly understood net contribution to sea level change.

A Semiarid Long-Term Hydrologic Observatory at the Continental Scale: The Upper Río Grande Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hogan, J. F.; Vivoni, E. R.; Bowman, R. S.; Coonrod, J.; Thomson, B. M.; Samani, Z.; Ferre, P. T.; Phillips, F. M.; Rango, A.; Rasmussen, R.; Springer, E. P.; Small, E. E.

2004-12-01

Water availability is critical in arid and semiarid regions, which comprise 35 percent of the land area of the globe. In the Southwestern US, climate variability and landscape heterogeneity lead to strong gradients in hydrological processes, which in turn impact land-atmosphere interactions, ecological dynamics, biogeochemical cycles and geomorphic change. This complexity presents a fundamental challenge to our understanding of hydrology, one that is best addressed through long-term, systematic field and remote-sensing observations and numerical-model investigations. In this poster, we will present our plans to study the interaction of climate-landscape-vegetation and water using a nested set of instrumented sites within the Upper Río Grande, a continental-scale semiarid watershed. This complex watershed extends from the snow-dominated headwater basins in San Juan Mountains of southern Colorado, through the Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico, Texas and Mexico, to the desert valley alluvial basins southeast of El Paso, Texas. As part of the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. (CUAHSI) plan for a network of Long-Term Hydrologic Observatories (LTHOs), the Upper Río Grande would represent the combination of mountain landscapes, semiarid to arid alluvial basin aquifers and riparian corridors that are characteristic of the Western United States. We will describe existing hydrologic, ecologic and atmospheric measurement infrastructure in the watershed and discuss plans for integrating these into a coherent network that provides a core set of scientific data products for the hydrologic community. Data products generated by the Upper Río Grande LTHO will also aid in the testing of coupled numerical models of the atmosphere-surface-groundwater system applied at high resolution over the region. The Upper Río Grande presents unique opportunities to test hydrologic hypotheses concerning surface water-groundwater interactions and their control on runoff response, solute transport and reactivity, and riparian ecological communities

Progress in studies on hydrological impacts of degrading permafrost in the Source Area of Yellow River on NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, SW China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, H.; Ma, Q.; Jin, X.

2017-12-01

Permafrost degradation substantially impacts hydrological processes in the Source Area of the Yellow River (SAYR). Deepening active layer has directly led to a reduction of surface runoffs, alters the generation and dynamics of slope runoffs and groundwater, leading to a deepening of groundwater flow paths. At present, however, there is only a limited understanding of the hydrological impact mechanisms of degrading permafrost. On the basis of analyzing and evaluating the current states, changing history and developing trends of climate, permafrost and hydrological processes, this program aims at further and better quantifying the nature of these mechanisms linking the degrading permafrost with changing hydrological processes. The key scientific themes for this research are the characterization of interactions between ground freezing-thawing and hydrogeology in the SAYR. For this study, a coupling is made between geothermal states and the occurrences of taliks in river systems, in order to understand how expanding taliks control groundwater and surface-water interactions and how these interactions might intensify or weaken when the climate warms and dries persistently. Numerical models include freeze-thaw dynamics coupled to groundwater and surface flow processes. For the proper parameterization of these models, field and laboratory studies are conducted with a focus on the SAYR. Geophysical investigations are employed for mapping permafrost distribution in relation to landscape elements. Boreholes and water wells and observation sites for the hydrothermal processes and water tables are used for establishing the current thermal state of frozen ground and talik and monitor their changes over time, and serve to ground-truth surface geophysical observations. Boreholes and wellbores, water wells and active layer sites have provided access to the permafrost and aquifer systems, allowing the dating of ground-water and -ice and soil strata for elucidating the regional hydrogeological system underlying the SAYR, and groundwater recharge mechanisms. The project plans to quantitatively study the impacting mechanisms of degrading frozen ground on changes in hydrological processes and systems in the SAYR.

The effects of ground hydrology on climate sensitivity to solar constant variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, S. H.; Curran, R. J.; Ohring, G.

1979-01-01

The effects of two different evaporation parameterizations on the climate sensitivity to solar constant variations are investigated by using a zonally averaged climate model. The model is based on a two-level quasi-geostrophic zonally averaged annual mean model. One of the evaporation parameterizations tested is a nonlinear formulation with the Bowen ratio determined by the predicted vertical temperature and humidity gradients near the earth's surface. The other is the linear formulation with the Bowen ratio essentially determined by the prescribed linear coefficient.

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

A synthesis of thermokarst lake water balance in high-latitude regions of North America from isotope tracers

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacDonald, Lauren A.; Wolfe, Brent B.; Turner, Kevin W.; Anderson, Lesleigh; Arp, Christopher D.; Birks, Jean; Bouchard, Frédéric; Edwards, Thomas W.D.; Farquharson, Nicole; Hall, Roland I.; McDonald, Ian; Narancic, Biljana; Ouimet, Chantal; Pienitz, Reinhard; Tondu, Jana; White, Hilary

2017-01-01

Numerous studies utilizing remote sensing imagery and other methods have documented that thermokarst lakes are undergoing varied hydrological transitions in response to recent climate changes, from surface area expansion to drainage and evaporative desiccation. Here, we provide a synthesis of hydrological conditions for 376 lakes of mainly thermokarst origin across high-latitude North America. We assemble surface water isotope compositions measured during the past decade at five lake-rich landscapes including Arctic Coastal Plain (Alaska), Yukon Flats (Alaska), Old Crow Flats (Yukon), northwestern Hudson Bay Lowlands (Manitoba), and Nunavik (Quebec). These landscapes represent the broad range of thermokarst environments by spanning gradients in meteorological, permafrost, and vegetation conditions. An isotope framework was established based on flux-weighted long-term averages of meteorological conditions for each lake to quantify water balance metrics. The isotope composition of source water and evaporation-to-inflow ratio for each lake were determined, and the results demonstrated a substantial array of regional and subregional diversity of lake hydrological conditions. Controls on lake water balance and how these vary among the five landscapes and with differing environmental drivers are assessed. Findings reveal that lakes in the Hudson Bay Lowlands are most vulnerable to evaporative desiccation, whereas those in Nunavik are most resilient. However, we also identify the complexity in predicting hydrological responses of these thermokarst landscapes to future climate change.

Hydrological resiliency in the Western Boreal Plains: classification of hydrological responses using wavelet analysis to assess landscape resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Probert, Samantha; Kettridge, Nicholas; Devito, Kevin; Hannah, David; Parkin, Geoff

2017-04-01

The Boreal represents a system of substantial resilience to climate change, with minimal ecological change over the past 6000 years. However, unprecedented climatic warming, coupled with catchment disturbances could exceed thresholds of hydrological function in the Western Boreal Plains. Knowledge of ecohydrological and climatic feedbacks that shape the resilience of boreal forests has advanced significantly in recent years, but this knowledge is yet to be applied and understood at landscape scales. Hydrological modelling at the landscape scale is challenging in the WBP due to diverse, non-topographically driven hydrology across the mosaic of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This study functionally divides the geologic and ecological components of the landscape into Hydrologic Response Areas (HRAs) and wetland, forestland, interface and pond Hydrologic Units (HUs) to accurately characterise water storage and infer transmission at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Wavelet analysis is applied to pond and groundwater levels to describe the patterns of water storage in response to climate signals; to isolate dominant controls on hydrological responses and to assess the relative importance of physical controls between wet and dry climates. This identifies which components of the landscape exhibit greater magnitude and frequency of variability to wetting and drying trends, further to testing the hierarchical framework for hydrological storage controls of: climate, bedrock geology, surficial geology, soil, vegetation, and topography. Classifying HRA and HU hydrological function is essential to understand and predict water storage and redistribution through drought cycles and wet periods. This work recognises which landscape components are most sensitive under climate change and disturbance and also creates scope for hydrological resiliency research in Boreal systems by recognising critical landscape components and their role in landscape collapse or catastrophic shift in ecosystem function under future climatic scenarios.

An ecohydrological sketch of climate change impacts on water and natural ecosystems for the Netherlands: bridging the gap between science and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, J. P. M.; Runhaar, J.; van Ek, R.; van der Hoek, D. C. J.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Batelaan, O.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Wassen, M. J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.

2012-11-01

For policy making and spatial planning, information is needed about the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. To provide this information, commonly hydrological and ecological models are used. We give arguments for our assessment that modelling only is insufficient for determining the impacts of climate changes on natural ecosystems at regional scales. Instead, we proposed a combination of hydrological simulations, a literature review and process-knowledge on climate-hydrology-vegetation interactions, to compile a sketch map that indicates climate change effects on a number of ecosystems in the Netherlands. Soon after a first version of our sketch map was published by a Dutch professional journal, copies appeared in policy documents, and also in a commercial and popular atlas of the Netherlands. Moreover, the map led to a question in the Dutch parliament about the sustainability of bog reserves under the future climate. Apparently, there was an urgent need for the information provided by the map. The map shows that climate change will presumably have the largest influence on ecosystems in the Netherlands that depend on precipitation as the major water source, like heathlands, dry grasslands, rain-fed moorland pools and raised bogs. Also highly susceptible are fens in reserves surrounded by deeply drained polders, because such fens depend on the inlet of surface water, of which quality is likely to deteriorate upon climate change. While the map is indicative for directions of change, in view of the uncertainties of our study, no conclusions should be drawn that may have far-reaching consequences, such as giving up certain nature targets that might no longer be feasible in the future climate. Instead, we advise to anticipate the potential threats from climate change by taking a number of adaptation measures that enhance the robustness of nature reserves. To improve climate change projections on hydrology and ecosystems, future research should especially focus on feedbacks of vegetation on the water balance, on processes that directly influence plant performance and on the ecological effects of weather extremes.

Response of hydrology to climate change in the southern Appalachian mountains using Bayesian inference

Treesearch

Wei Wu; James S. Clark; James M. Vose

2012-01-01

Predicting long-term consequences of climate change on hydrologic processes has been limited due to the needs to accommodate the uncertainties in hydrological measurements for calibration, and to account for the uncertainties in the models that would ingest those calibrations and uncertainties in climate predictions as basis for hydrological predictions. We implemented...

Conceptualizing Peatlands in a Physically-Based Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downer, Charles; Wahl, Mark

2017-04-01

In as part of a research effort focused on climate change effects on permafrost near Fairbanks, Alaska, it became apparent that peat soils, overlain by thick sphagnum moss, had a considerable effect on the overall hydrology. Peatlands represent a confounding mixture of vegetation, soils, and water that present challenges for conceptualizing and parametrizing hydrologic models. We employed the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis Model (GSSHA) in our analysis of the Caribou Poker Creek Experimental Watershed (CPCRW). GSSHA is a physically-based, spatially distributed, watershed model developed by the U.S. Army to simulate important streamflow-generating processes (Downer and Ogden, 2004). The model enables simulation of surface water and groundwater interactions, as well as soil temperature and frozen ground effects on subsurface water movement. The test site is a 104 km2 basin located in the Yukon-Tanana Uplands of the Northern Plateaus Physiographic Province centered on 65˚10' N latitude and 147˚30' W longitude. The area lies above the Chattanika River floodplain and is characterized by rounded hilltops with gentle slopes and alluvium-floored valleys having minimal relief (Wahrhaftig, 1965) underlain by a mica shist of the Birch Creek formation (Rieger et al., 1972). The region has a cold continental climate characterized by short warm summers and long cold winters. Observed stream flows indicated significant groundwater contribution with sustained base flows even during dry periods. A site visit exposed the presence of surface water flows indicating a mixed basin that would require both surface and subsurface simulation capability to properly capture the response. Soils in the watershed are predominately silt loam underlain by shallow fractured bedrock. Throughout much of the basin, a thick layer of live sphagnum moss and fine peat covers the ground surface. A restrictive layer of permafrost is found on north facing slopes. The combination of thick moss and peat soils presented a conundrum in terms of conceptualizing the hydrology and identifying reasonable parameter ranges for physical properties. Various combinations of overland roughness, surface retention, and subsurface flow were used to represent the peatlands. The process resulted in some interesting results that may shed light on the dominant hydrologic processes associated with peatland, as well as what hydrologic conceptualizations, simulation tools, and approaches are applicable in modeling peatland hydrology. Downer, C.W., Ogden, F.L., 2004. GSSHA: Model to simulate diverse stream flow producing processes. J. Hydrol. Eng. 161-174. Rieger, S., Furbush, C.E., Schoephorster, D.B., Summerfield Jr., H., Geiger, L.C., 1972. Soils of the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Interior Alaska. Hanover, New Hampshire. Wahrhaftig, C., 1965. Physiographic Divisions of Alaska. Washington, DC.

Groundwater availability of the Columbia Plateau Regional Aquifer System, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Kahle, S.C.; Ely, D.M.; Burns, E.R.; Snyder, D.T.; Haynes, J.V.; Olsen, T.D.; Welch, W.B.; Morgan, D.S.

2015-09-22

Changes in the system from predevelopment times. The model also is a useful tool for investigating water supply, water demand, management strategies, groundwater-surface water exchanges, and potential effects of changing climate on the hydrologic system.

Projecting the potential evapotranspiration by coupling different formulations and input data reliabilities: The possible uncertainty source for climate change impacts on hydrological regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Weiguang; Li, Changni; Xing, Wanqiu; Fu, Jianyu

2017-12-01

Representing atmospheric evaporating capability for a hypothetical reference surface, potential evapotranspiration (PET) determines the upper limit of actual evapotranspiration and is an important input to hydrological models. Due that present climate models do not give direct estimates of PET when simulating the hydrological response to future climate change, the PET must be estimated first and is subject to the uncertainty on account of many existing formulae and different input data reliabilities. Using four different PET estimation approaches, i.e., the more physically Penman (PN) equation with less reliable input variables, more empirical radiation-based Priestley-Taylor (PT) equation with relatively dependable downscaled data, the most simply temperature-based Hamon (HM) equation with the most reliable downscaled variable, and downscaling PET directly by the statistical downscaling model, this paper investigated the differences of runoff projection caused by the alternative PET methods by a well calibrated abcd monthly hydrological model. Three catchments, i.e., the Luanhe River Basin, the Source Region of the Yellow River and the Ganjiang River Basin, representing a large climatic diversity were chosen as examples to illustrate this issue. The results indicated that although similar monthly patterns of PET over the period 2021-2050 for each catchment were provided by the four methods, the magnitudes of PET were still slightly different, especially for spring and summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with relatively dry climate feature. The apparent discrepancy in magnitude of change in future runoff and even the diverse change direction for summer months in the Luanhe River Basin and spring months in the Source Region of the Yellow River indicated that the PET method related uncertainty occurred, especially in the Luanhe River Basin and the Source Region of the Yellow River with smaller aridity index. Moreover, the possible reason of discrepancies in uncertainty between three catchments was quantitatively discussed by the contribution analysis based on climatic elasticity method. This study can provide beneficial reference to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and thus improve the regional strategy for future water resource management.

Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

2010-12-01

When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In Watershed Models, (Eds. V.P. Singh & D.K. Frevert) CRC Press. Pages 245-272, ISBN: 0849336090. Gregersen, J.B., Gijsbers, P.J.A. and Westen, S.J.P. (2007) OpenMI: Open modelling interface. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 09.3, 175191. doi: 10.2166/hydro.2007.023.

Improved methods for estimating local terrestrial water dynamics from GRACE in the Northern High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Wondwosen M.; Milewski, Adam M.

2017-12-01

Investigating terrestrial water cycle dynamics is vital for understanding the recent climatic variability and human impacts in the hydrologic cycle. In this study, a downscaling approach was developed and tested, to improve the applicability of terrestrial water storage (TWS) anomaly data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission for understanding local terrestrial water cycle dynamics in the Northern High Plains region. A non-parametric, artificial neural network (ANN)-based model, was utilized to downscale GRACE data by integrating it with hydrological variables (e.g. soil moisture) derived from satellite and land surface model data. The downscaling model, constructed through calibration and sensitivity analysis, was used to estimate TWS anomaly for watersheds ranging from 5000 to 20,000 km2 in the study area. The downscaled water storage anomaly data were evaluated using water storage data derived from an (1) integrated hydrologic model, (2) land surface model (e.g. Noah), and (3) storage anomalies calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements. Results demonstrate the ANN predicts monthly TWS anomaly within the uncertainty (conservative error estimate = 34 mm) for most of the watersheds. Seasonal derived groundwater storage anomaly (GWSA) from the ANN correlated well (r = ∼0.85) with GWSAs calculated from in-situ groundwater level measurements for a watershed size as small as 6000 km2. ANN downscaled TWSA matches closely with Noah-based TWSA compared to standard GRACE extracted TWSA at a local scale. Moreover, the ANN-downscaled change in TWS replicated the water storage variability resulting from the combined effect of climatic and human impacts (e.g. abstraction). The implications of utilizing finer resolution GRACE data for improving local and regional water resources management decisions and applications are clear, particularly in areas lacking in-situ hydrologic monitoring networks.

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, Randall T.; Ritchie, Andre; Boyce, Scott E.; Ferguson, Ian; Galanter, Amy; Flint, Lorraine E.; Henson, Wesley

2018-05-31

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation.This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP.The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region.Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows.Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model and Water-Availability Analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Ritchie, Andre; Boyce, Scott E.; Galanter, Amy E.; Ferguson, Ian A.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Henson, Wesley R.

2018-05-31

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation.This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP.The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region.Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows.Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change: Quantification of Uncertainties (Alexander von Humboldt Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mujumdar, Pradeep P.

2014-05-01

Climate change results in regional hydrologic change. The three prominent signals of global climate change, viz., increase in global average temperatures, rise in sea levels and change in precipitation patterns convert into signals of regional hydrologic change in terms of modifications in water availability, evaporative water demand, hydrologic extremes of floods and droughts, water quality, salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers, groundwater recharge and other related phenomena. A major research focus in hydrologic sciences in recent years has been assessment of impacts of climate change at regional scales. An important research issue addressed in this context deals with responses of water fluxes on a catchment scale to the global climatic change. A commonly adopted methodology for assessing the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change is to use the climate projections provided by the General Circulation Models (GCMs) for specified emission scenarios in conjunction with the process-based hydrologic models to generate the corresponding hydrologic projections. The scaling problem arising because of the large spatial scales at which the GCMs operate compared to those required in distributed hydrologic models, and their inability to satisfactorily simulate the variables of interest to hydrology are addressed by downscaling the GCM simulations to hydrologic scales. Projections obtained with this procedure are burdened with a large uncertainty introduced by the choice of GCMs and emission scenarios, small samples of historical data against which the models are calibrated, downscaling methods used and other sources. Development of methodologies to quantify and reduce such uncertainties is a current area of research in hydrology. In this presentation, an overview of recent research carried out by the author's group on assessment of hydrologic impacts of climate change addressing scale issues and quantification of uncertainties is provided. Methodologies developed with conditional random fields, Dempster-Shafer theory, possibility theory, imprecise probabilities and non-stationary extreme value theory are discussed. Specific applications on uncertainty quantification in impacts on streamflows, evaporative water demands, river water quality and urban flooding are presented. A brief discussion on detection and attribution of hydrologic change at river basin scales, contribution of landuse change and likely alterations in return levels of hydrologic extremes is also provided.

Achieving Sustainability in a Semi-Arid Basin in Northwest Mexico through an Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Hernandez, A.; Mayer, A. S.

2008-12-01

The hydrologic systems in Northwest Mexico are at risk of over exploitation due to poor management of the water resources and adverse climatic conditions. The purpose of this work is to create and Integrated Hydrologic-Economic-Institutional Model to support future development in the Yaqui River basin, well known by its agricultural productivity, by directing the water management practices toward sustainability. The Yaqui River basin is a semi-arid basin with an area of 72,000 square kilometers and an average precipitation of 527 mm per year. The primary user of water is agriculture followed by domestic use and industry. The water to meet user demands comes from three reservoirs constructed, in series, along the river. The main objective of the integrated simulation-optimization model is to maximize the economic benefit within the basin, subject to physical and environmental constraints. Decision variables include the water allocation to major users and reservoirs as well as aquifer releases. Economic and hydrologic (including the interaction of the surface water and groundwater) simulation models were both included in the integrated model. The surface water model refers to a rainfall-runoff model created, calibrated, and incorporated into a MATLAB code that estimates the monthly storage in the main reservoirs by solving a water balance. The rainfall-runoff model was coupled with a groundwater model of the Yaqui Valley which was previously developed (Addams, 2004). This model includes flow in the main canals and infiltration to the aquifer. The economic benefit of water for some activities such as agricultural use, domestic use, hydropower generation, and environmental value was determined. Sensitivity analysis was explored for those parameters that are not certain such as price elasticities or population growth. Different water allocation schemes were created based on climate change, climate variability, and socio-economic scenarios. Addams L. 2004. Water resource policy evaluation using a combined hydrologic-economic-agronomic modeling framework: Yaqui Valley, Sonora, Mexico. Ph.D.dissertation, Stanford University.

Typhoon Changes in Northwestern Pacific Region and Its Relationship to Hydrologic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, J. S.; Lee, J. H.

2017-12-01

Changes in typhoon intensity are sensitively related to the thermodynamic responses of the atmosphere and ocean to warmer temperature and increased CO2 concentrations in a changing climate. Atmospheric conditions in warmer climates are likely to promote the strengthening of typhoon activity. The pattern of typhoons in the North Pacific is constantly changing due to rising sea level, the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, and changes in weather and climate patterns due to global warming. In particular, as typhoon genesis positions are shifted to the north compared to past typhoon, the East Asia region is exposed to possible typhoon landings and potential damage. Efforts to integrate typhoon-related information into management and planning have focused on recovery in the wake of damaging events—a reactive, hazard perspective; however, there have been insufficient efforts towards regulation and water management and for multilateral assessments of environmental impacts. Therefore, climate change adaptation and countermeasures based on a variety of hydrological changes and a clear understanding of sea surface temperature changes are needed to analyze the changes in ecological systems under the influence of typhoons at the regional and local scale. In this study, we focus on typhoon - sensitive watersheds and quantify the effects of typhoons to analyze various hydrological changes due to typhoons. The results of this study provide useful information for adapting to climate change and preparing measures.

Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.

2017-12-01

Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which can explain streamflow differences between geographically close locations. Summarizing, this work shows that hydrology needs its own way to structure climate forcing, acknowledging that climates vary gradually on a global scale and explicitly including those climate aspects that drive seasonal changes in hydrologic regimes.

Sea Surface Warming and Increased Aridity at Mid-latitudes during Eocene Thermal Maximum 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, D. T.; Zeebe, R. E.; Hoenisch, B.; Schrader, C.; Lourens, L. J.; Zachos, J. C.

2017-12-01

Early Eocene hyperthermals, i.e. abrupt global warming events characterized by the release of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere, can provide insight into the sensitivity of the Earth's climate system and hydrologic cycle to carbon emissions. Indeed, the largest Eocene hyperthermal, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), has provided one case study of extreme and abrupt global warming, with a mass of carbon release roughly equivalent to total modern fossil fuel reserves and a release rate 1/10 that of modern. Global sea surface temperatures (SST) increased by 5-8°C during the PETM and extensive evidence from marine and terrestrial records indicates significant shifts in the hydrologic cycle consistent with an increase in poleward moisture transport in response to surface warming. The second largest Eocene hyperthermal, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2) provides an additional calibration point for determining the sensitivity of climate and the hydrologic cycle to massive carbon release. Marine carbon isotope excursions (CIE) and warming at the ETM-2 were roughly half as large as at the PETM, but reliable evidence for shifts in temperature and the hydrologic cycle are sparse for the ETM-2. Here, we utilize coupled planktic foraminiferal δ18O and Mg/Ca to determine ΔSST and ΔSSS (changes in sea surface temperature and salinity) for ETM-2 at ODP Sites 1209 (28°N paleolatitude in the Pacific) and 1265 (42°S paleolatitude in the S. Atlantic), accounting for potential pH influence on the two proxies by using LOSCAR climate-carbon cycle simulated ΔpH. Our results indicate a warming of 2-4°C at both mid-latitude sites and an increase in SSS of 1-3ppt, consistent with simulations of early Paleogene hydroclimate that suggest an increase in low- to mid-latitude aridity due to an intensification of moisture transport to high-latitudes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the CIE and warming for ETM-2 scales with the CIE and warming for the PETM, suggesting that the source of carbon was similar for both events.

The Challenges of Developing a Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction (Alfred Wegener Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric F.

2014-05-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ("From Observations to Decisions") recognizes that "water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity", and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the developments at Princeton University towards a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions, flood potential and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of water variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed. Future changes in water availability and drought risk are quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. For regions with lack of on-the-ground data we are field-testing low-cost environmental sensors and along with new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, integrating these into the system for improved monitoring and prediction. At every step there are scientific challenges whose solutions are only partially being solved. In addition there are challenges in delivering such systems as "climate services", especially to societies with low technical capacity such as rural agriculturalists in sub-Saharan Africa, but whose needs for such information are great. We provide an overview of the system and some examples of real-world applications to flood and drought events, with a focus on Africa.

Effects of land use/land cover and climate changes on surface runoff in a semi-humid and semi-arid transition zone in northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jing; He, Fan; Jiu Xiong, Yu; Qiu, Guo Yu

2017-01-01

Water resources, which are considerably affected by land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes, are a key limiting factor in highly vulnerable ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions. The impacts of LULC and climate changes on water resources must be assessed in these areas. However, conflicting results regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff have been reported in relatively large basins, such as the Jinghe River basin (JRB), which is a typical catchment (> 45 000 km2) located in a semi-humid and arid transition zone on the central Loess Plateau, northwest China. In this study, we focused on quantifying both the combined and isolated impacts of LULC and climate changes on surface runoff. We hypothesized that under climatic warming and drying conditions, LULC changes, which are primarily caused by intensive human activities such as the Grain for Green Program, will considerably alter runoff in the JRB. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was adopted to perform simulations. The simulated results indicated that although runoff increased very little between the 1970s and the 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate changes, LULC and climate changes affected surface runoff differently in each decade, e.g., runoff increased with increased precipitation between the 1970s and the 1980s (precipitation contributed to 88 % of the runoff increase). Thereafter, runoff decreased and was increasingly influenced by LULC changes, which contributed to 44 % of the runoff changes between the 1980s and 1990s and 71 % of the runoff changes between the 1990s and 2000s. Our findings revealed that large-scale LULC under the Grain for Green Program has had an important effect on the hydrological cycle since the late 1990s. Additionally, the conflicting findings regarding the effects of LULC and climate changes on runoff in relatively large basins are likely caused by uncertainties in hydrological simulations.

Hydrology of prairie wetlands: Understanding the integrated surface-water and groundwater processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayashi, Masaki; van der Kamp, Garth; Rosenberry, Donald O.

2016-01-01

Wetland managers and policy makers need to make decisions based on a sound scientific understanding of hydrological and ecological functions of wetlands. This article presents an overview of the hydrology of prairie wetlands intended for managers, policy makers, and researchers new to this field (e.g., graduate students), and a quantitative conceptual framework for understanding the hydrological functions of prairie wetlands and their responses to changes in climate and land use. The existence of prairie wetlands in the semi-arid environment of the Prairie-Pothole Region (PPR) depends on the lateral inputs of runoff water from their catchments because mean annual potential evaporation exceeds precipitation in the PPR. Therefore, it is critically important to consider wetlands and catchments as highly integrated hydrological units. The water balance of individual wetlands is strongly influenced by runoff from the catchment and the exchange of groundwater between the central pond and its moist margin. Land-use practices in the catchment have a sensitive effect on runoff and hence the water balance. Surface and subsurface storage and connectivity among individual wetlands controls the diversity of pond permanence within a wetland complex, resulting in a variety of eco-hydrological functionalities necessary for maintaining the integrity of prairie-wetland ecosystems.

A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

2002-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River basin, China.

PubMed

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem modeling. This scheme is known as the flux-adjusting surface data assimilation system (FASDAS) developed by Alapaty et al. (2008). This scheme provides continuous adjustments for soil moisture and temperature (via indirect nudging) and for surface air temperature and water vapor mixing ratio (via direct nudging). The simultaneous application of indirect and direct nudging maintains greater consistency between the soil temperature–moisture and the atmospheric surface layer mass-field variables. The new method, FASDAS, consistently improved the accuracy of the model simulations at weather prediction scales for different horizontal grid resolutions, as well as for high resolution regional climate predictions. This new capability has been released in WRF Version 3.8 as option grid_sfdda = 2. This new capability increased the accuracy of atmospheric inputs for use air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem modeling research to improve the accuracy of respective end-point research outcome. IMPACT: A new method, FASDAS, was implemented into the WRF model to consistently improve the accuracy of the model simulations at weather prediction scales for different horizontal grid resolutions, as wel

Projected increases in the annual flood pulse of the Western Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Manz, Bastian; Véliz Rosas, Claudia; Willems, Patrick; Lavado-Casimiro, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup; Santini, William

2016-01-01

The impact of a changing climate on the Amazon basin is a subject of intensive research because of its rich biodiversity and the significant role of rainforests in carbon cycling. Climate change has also a direct hydrological impact, and increasing efforts have focused on understanding the hydrological dynamics at continental and subregional scales, such as the Western Amazon. New projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 ensemble indicate consistent climatic warming and increasing seasonality of precipitation in the Peruvian Amazon basin. Here we use a distributed land surface model to quantify the potential impact of this change in the climate on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river. Using extreme value analysis, historical and future projections of the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river flows are produced for a range of return periods between 1 and 100 yr. We show that the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of climate change project an increased severity of the wet season flood pulse (7.5% and 12% increases respectively for the 100 yr return floods). These findings agree with previously projected increases in high extremes under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate projections, and are important to highlight due to the potential consequences on reproductive processes of in-stream species, swamp forest ecology, and socio-economy in the floodplain, amidst a growing literature that more strongly emphasises future droughts and their impact on the viability of the rainforest system over greater Amazonia.

Landscape structure and climate influences on hydrologic response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nippgen, Fabian; McGlynn, Brian L.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Emanuel, Ryan E.

2011-12-01

Climate variability and catchment structure (topography, geology, vegetation) have a significant influence on the timing and quantity of water discharged from mountainous catchments. How these factors combine to influence runoff dynamics is poorly understood. In this study we linked differences in hydrologic response across catchments and across years to metrics of landscape structure and climate using a simple transfer function rainfall-runoff modeling approach. A transfer function represents the internal catchment properties that convert a measured input (rainfall/snowmelt) into an output (streamflow). We examined modeled mean response time, defined as the average time that it takes for a water input to leave the catchment outlet from the moment it reaches the ground surface. We combined 12 years of precipitation and streamflow data from seven catchments in the Tenderfoot Creek Experimental Forest (Little Belt Mountains, southwestern Montana) with landscape analyses to quantify the first-order controls on mean response times. Differences between responses across the seven catchments were related to the spatial variability in catchment structure (e.g., slope, flowpath lengths, tree height). Annual variability was largely a function of maximum snow water equivalent. Catchment averaged runoff ratios exhibited strong correlations with mean response time while annually averaged runoff ratios were not related to climatic metrics. These results suggest that runoff ratios in snowmelt dominated systems are mainly controlled by topography and not by climatic variability. This approach provides a simple tool for assessing differences in hydrologic response across diverse watersheds and climate conditions.

Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

PubMed Central

A. Betts, Richard

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093

Hydrologic processes governing near surface saturation of alpine wetlands in the Canadian Rockies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westbrook, C.; Mercer, J.

2016-12-01

Alpine wetlands are vital for habitat, biodiversity, carbon cycling and water storage, but little is known about their hydrologic condition. Climate trends toward smaller mountain snowpacks that melt earlier are thought to pose a threat to the continued provision of alpine wetland ecological functions, and their existence, as it is believed they derive their water mainly from snowmelt. Our objective was to determine the hydrologic processes governing near surface saturation in alpine wetlands. We monitored the water table dynamics of three alpine wetlands in contrasting hydrogeomorphic landscape positions for two summers in Banff National Park, Canada. We concurrently monitored water balance components, and analyzed soil properties and source water geochemistry. Despite very different snow conditions between the two study years, water tables remained near the surface and relatively stable in both years, indicating wetlands are more hydrologically buffered from snowpack variations than expected. We did not find convincing evidence of hydrogeomorphic position influencing wetland water table dynamics. Instead, peat thickness seemed to be critical in regulating water table as the wetland with the thickest peat soil (>1 m) maintained water tables closest to the ground surface for the longest period of time. Thicker peat deposits may develop under convergent hydrologic flow path conditions. Our results indicate that alpine wetlands are more resilient to shifting environmental conditions than previously reported.

Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

2017-04-01

The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help to improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology, but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability and understanding of climate system feedbacks. Orth, R., E. Dutra, I. F. Trigo, and G. Balsamo (2016): Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., doi:10.5194/hess-2016-628

An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification.

PubMed

DeAngelis, Anthony M; Qu, Xin; Zelinka, Mark D; Hall, Alex

2015-12-10

Intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a key dimension of climate change, with substantial impacts on human and natural systems. A basic measure of hydrologic cycle intensification is the increase in global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming, which varies by a factor of three in current-generation climate models (about 1-3 per cent per kelvin). Part of the uncertainty may originate from atmosphere-radiation interactions. As the climate warms, increases in shortwave absorption from atmospheric moistening will suppress the precipitation increase. This occurs through a reduction of the latent heating increase required to maintain a balanced atmospheric energy budget. Using an ensemble of climate models, here we show that such models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to variations in atmospheric water vapour, leading to an underestimation in the shortwave absorption increase and an overestimation in the precipitation increase. This sensitivity also varies considerably among models due to differences in radiative transfer parameterizations, explaining a substantial portion of model spread in the precipitation response. Consequently, attaining accurate shortwave absorption responses through improvements to the radiative transfer schemes could reduce the spread in the predicted global precipitation increase per degree warming for the end of the twenty-first century by about 35 per cent, and reduce the estimated ensemble-mean increase in this quantity by almost 40 per cent.

Hydrologic data for the Great and Denbow heaths in eastern Maine, October 1980 through September 1981

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, Wallace J.; Smath, J.A.; Adamik, J.T.

1983-01-01

Hydrologic data collected on the Great and Denbow Heaths, Maine, include precipitation, pan evaporation, air temperatures, streamflow, groundwater levels, and water quality constituents. These data were collected for a peat bog hydrology study conducted in cooperation with the Maine Geological Survey. The data network consisted of climate information from three rain gages, an evaporation pan, and two maximum-minimum thermometers; surface water information from two continuous gaging stations and 19 partial record sites; groundwater information from an observation well equipped with a continuous recorder and 106 piezometers; and water quality information from 13 wells and seven surface water sites. Water quality constituents include: field determinations of pH, specific conductance, and temperature, and laboratory determinations of common inorganic cations and anions, trace elements, and selected organic compounds. Methods used for the collection and analyses of data included standard Survey techniques modified for the unique hydrologic environment of the study area. (Author 's abstract)

Using a new high resolution regional model for malaria that accounts for population density and surface hydrology to determine sensitivity of malaria risk to climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tompkins, Adrian; Ermert, Volker; Di Giuseppe, Francesca

2013-04-01

In order to better address the role of population dynamics and surface hydrology in the assessment of malaria risk, a new dynamical disease model been developed at ICTP, known as VECTRI: VECtor borne disease community model of ICTP, TRIeste (VECTRI). The model accounts for the temperature impact on the larvae, parasite and adult vector populations. Local host population density affects the transmission intensity, and the model thus reproduces the differences between peri-urban and rural transmission noted in Africa. A new simple pond model framework represents surface hydrology. The model can be used on with spatial resolutions finer than 10km to resolve individual health districts and thus can be used as a planning tool. Results of the models representation of interannual variability and longer term projections of malaria transmission will be shown for Africa. These will show that the model represents the seasonality and spatial variations of malaria transmission well matching a wide range of survey data of parasite rate and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) from across West and East Africa taken in the period prior to large-scale interventions. The model is used to determine the sensitivity of malaria risk to climate variations, both in rainfall and temperature, and then its use in a prototype forecasting system coupled with ECMWF forecasts will be demonstrated.

Changing Hydrology in Glacier-fed High Altitude Andean Peatbogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slayback, D. A.; Yager, K.; Baraer, M.; Mohr, K. I.; Argollo, J.; Wigmore, O.; Meneses, R. I.; Mark, B. G.

2012-12-01

Montane peatbogs in the glacierized Andean highlands of Peru and Bolivia provide critical forage for camelids (llama and alpaca) in regionally extensive pastoral agriculture systems. During the long dry season, these wetlands often provide the only available green forage. A key question for the future of these peatbog systems, and the livelihoods they support, is the impact of climate change and glacier recession on their hydrology, and thus forage production. We have already documented substantial regional glacier recession, of, on average, approximately 30% of surface area over the past two decades. As glaciers begin to retreat under climate change, there is initially a period of increased meltwater outflow, culminating in a period of "peak water", and followed by a continual decline in outflows. Based on previous work, we know that some glaciers in the region have already passed peak water conditions, and are now declining. To better understand the impacts of these processes on peatbog hydrology and productivity, we have begun collecting a variety of surface data at several study sites in both Bolivia and Peru. These include precipitation, stream flow, water levels, water chemistry and isotope analyses, and peatbog biodiversity and biomass. These measurements will be used in conjunction with a regional model driven by satellite data to predict likely future impacts. We will present the results from these initial surface measurements, and an overview of satellite datasets to be used in the regional model.

Persistent drying in the tropics linked to natural forcing.

PubMed

Winter, Amos; Zanchettin, Davide; Miller, Thomas; Kushnir, Yochanan; Black, David; Lohmann, Gerrit; Burnett, Allison; Haug, Gerald H; Estrella-Martínez, Juan; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Beaufort, Luc; Rubino, Angelo; Cheng, Hai

2015-07-14

Approximately half of the world's population lives in the tropics, and future changes in the hydrological cycle will impact not just the freshwater supplies but also energy production in areas dependent upon hydroelectric power. It is vital that we understand the mechanisms/processes that affect tropical precipitation and the eventual surface hydrological response to better assess projected future regional precipitation trends and variability. Paleo-climate proxies are well suited for this purpose as they provide long time series that pre-date and complement the present, often short instrumental observations. Here we present paleo-precipitation data from a speleothem located in Mesoamerica that reveal large multi-decadal declines in regional precipitation, whose onset coincides with clusters of large volcanic eruptions during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. This reconstruction provides new independent evidence of long-lasting volcanic effects on climate and elucidates key aspects of the causal chain of physical processes determining the tropical climate response to global radiative forcing.

Hydrologic considerations in defining isolated wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, T.C.; LaBaugh, J.W.

2003-01-01

Wetlands that are not connected by streams to other surface-water bodies are considered to be isolated. Although the definition is based on surface-water connections to other water bodies, isolated wetlands commonly are integral parts of extensive ground-water flow systems, and isolated wetlands can spill over their surface divides into adjacent surface-water bodies during periods of abundant precipitation and high water levels. Thus, characteristics of ground-water flow and atmospheric-water flow affect the isolation of wetlands. In general, the degree that isolated wetlands are connected through the ground-water system to other surface-water bodies depends to a large extent on the rate that ground water moves and the rate that hydrologic stresses can be transmitted through the ground-water system. Water that seeps from an isolated wetland into a gravel aquifer can travel many kilometers through the ground-water system in one year. In contrast, water that seeps from an isolated wetland into a clayey or silty substrate may travel less than one meter in one year. For wetlands that can spill over their surface watersheds during periods of wet climate conditions, their isolation is related to the height to a spill elevation above normal wetland water level and the recurrence interval of various magnitudes of precipitation. The concepts presented in this paper indicate that the entire hydrologic system needs to be considered in establishing a definition of hydrologic isolation.

Agricultural conservation practices can help mitigate the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Wagena, Moges B; Easton, Zachary M

2018-09-01

Agricultural conservation practices (CPs) are commonly implemented to reduce diffuse nutrient pollution. Climate change can complicate the development, implementation, and efficiency of agricultural CPs by altering hydrology, nutrient cycling, and erosion. This research quantifies the impact of climate change on hydrology, nutrient cycling, erosion, and the effectiveness of agricultural CP in the Susquehanna River Basin in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA. We develop, calibrate, and test the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Variable Source Area (SWAT-VSA) model and select four CPs; buffer strips, strip-cropping, no-till, and tile drainage, to test their effectiveness in reducing climate change impacts on water quality. We force the model with six downscaled global climate models (GCMs) for a historic period (1990-2014) and two future scenario periods (2041-2065 and 2075-2099) and quantify the impact of climate change on hydrology, nitrate-N (NO 3 -N), total N (TN), dissolved phosphorus (DP), total phosphorus (TP), and sediment export with and without CPs. We also test prioritizing CP installation on the 30% of agricultural lands that generate the most runoff (e.g., critical source areas-CSAs). Compared against the historical baseline and with no CPs, the ensemble model predictions indicate that climate change results in annual increases in flow (4.5±7.3%), surface runoff (3.5±6.1%), sediment export (28.5±18.2%) and TN export (9.5±5.1%), but decreases in NO 3 -N (12±12.8%), DP (14±11.5), and TP (2.5±7.4%) export. When agricultural CPs are simulated most do not appreciably change the water balance, however, tile drainage and strip-cropping decrease surface runoff, sediment export, and DP/TP, while buffer strips reduce N export. Installing CPs on CSAs results in nearly the same level of performance for most practices and most pollutants. These results suggest that climate change will influence the performance of agricultural CPs and that targeting agricultural CPs to CSAs can provide nearly the same level of water quality effects as more widespread adoption. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Understanding Hydrologic Processes in Semi-Arid Cold Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barber, M. E.; Beutel, M.; Lamb, B.; Watts, R.

2004-12-01

Water shortages destabilize economies and ecosystems. These shortages are caused by complex interactions between climate variability, ecosystem processes, and increased demand from human activities. In the semi-arid region of the northwestern U.S., water availability during drought periods has already reached crisis levels and the problems are expected to intensify as the effects of global climate change and population growth continue to alter the supply and demand patterns. Many of the problems are critical to this region because hydropower, agriculture, navigation, fish and wildlife survival, water supply, tourism, environmental protection, and water-based recreation are vital to state economies and our way of life. In order to assess the spatial and temporal nature of hydrologic responses, consistent and comprehensive long-term data sets are needed. In response to these needs, we would like to propose the Spokane River drainage basin as a long-term hydrologic observatory. The Spokane River basin is located in eastern Washington and northern Idaho and is a tributary of the Columbia River. The watershed consists of several major surface water tributaries as well as natural and man-made lakes and reservoirs. With headwaters beginning in the Rocky Mountains, the drainage area is approximately 6,640 mi2. In addition to providing an excellent study area for examining many conventional water resource problems, the Spokane River watershed also presents a unique opportunity for investigating many of the hydrologic processes found in semi-arid cold climates. Snowfall in the watershed varies spatially between 35 inches near the mouth of the basin to over 112 inches at the headwaters. These varied hydrologic uses provide a unique opportunity to address many common challenges faced by water resource professionals. This broad array of issues encompasses science, engineering, agriculture, social sciences, economics, fisheries, and a host of other disciplines. In addition, because precipitation patterns in this semi-arid region tend to be temporally distributed, storage and global climate change issues are significant.

Development of the Metropolitan Water Availability Index (MWAI) and Short-term Assessment with Multi-scale Remote Sensing Technologies

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change will change environmental conditions including temperature, precipitation, surface radiation, humidity, soil moisture, and sea level, and impact significantly the regional-scale hydrologic processes such as evapotranspiration (ET), runoff, groundwater levels...

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A; Hegewisch, Katherine C

2018-01-09

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

2018-01-01

We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

A Seamless Framework for Global Water Cycle Monitoring and Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.; Chaney, N.; Fisher, C. K.; Caylor, K. K.

2013-12-01

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) Water Strategy ('From Observations to Decisions') recognizes that 'water is essential for ensuring food and energy security, for facilitating poverty reduction and health security, and for the maintenance of ecosystems and biodiversity', and that water cycle data and observations are critical for improved water management and water security - especially in less developed regions. The GEOSS Water Strategy has articulated a number of goals for improved water management, including flood and drought preparedness, that include: (i) facilitating the use of Earth Observations for water cycle observations; (ii) facilitating the acquisition, processing, and distribution of data products needed for effective management; (iii) providing expertise, information systems, and datasets to the global, regional, and national water communities. There are several challenges that must be met to advance our capability to provide near real-time water cycle monitoring, early warning of hydrological hazards (floods and droughts) and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting hydrological hazards are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited and monitoring networks are inadequate. This presentation describes the development of a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales that allows for consistent assessment of water variability from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental, global water cycle monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions, flood potential and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of water variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed. Future changes in water availability and drought risk are quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. For regions with lack of on-the-ground data we are field-testing low-cost environmental sensors and along with new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, integrating these into the system for improved monitoring and prediction. We provide an overview of the system and some examples of real-world applications to flood and drought events, with a focus on Africa.

Comparison of the hydrological excitation functions HAM of polar motion for the period 1980.0-2007.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nastula, J.; Pasnicka, M.; Kolaczek, B.

2011-10-01

In this study we compared contributions of polar motion excitation determined from hydrological models and harmonic coefficients of the Earth gravity field obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Hydrological excitation function (hydrological angular momentum - HAM) has been estimated from models of global hydrology, based on the observed distribution of surface water, snow, ice and soil moisture. All of them were compared with observed Geodetic Angular Momentum (GAM), excitations of polar motion. The spectra of these excitation functions of polar motion and residual geodetic excitation function G-A-O obtained from GAM by elimination of atmospheric and oceanic excitation functions were computed too. Phasor diagrams of the seasonal components of the polar motion excitation functions of all HAM excitation functions as well as of two GRACE solutions: CSR, CNES were determined and discussed.

C-band radar observes water level change in swamp forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Crane, Mike; Kwoun, Oh-Ig; Wells, Christopher J.; Rykhus, Russ

2005-01-01

Wetlands cover more than 4% of the Earth's land surface and interact with hydrologic, biogeochemical, and sediment transport processes that are fundamental in understanding ecological and climatic changes [Alsdorf et al, 2003; Prigent et al., 2001 ; Melack and Forsberg, 2000;Dunne et al., 1998]. Measurement of water level changes in wetlands, and consequently of changes in water storage capacity, provides a required input for hydrologic models, and is required to comprehensively assess flood hazards [e.g., Coe, 1998].

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Proposed Great Salt Lake Basin Hydrologic Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, W. P.; Tarboton, D. G.

2004-12-01

The dynamic physiography and population growth within the Great Salt Lake Basin provide the opportunity to observe climate and human-induced land-surface changes affecting water availability, water quality, and water use, thereby making the Great Salt Lake Basin a microcosm of contemporary water resource issues and an excellent site to pursue interdisciplinary and integrated hydrologic science. Important societal concerns center on: How do climate variability and human-induced landscape changes affect hydrologic processes, water quality and availability, and aquatic ecosystems over a range of scales? What are the resource, social, and economic consequences of these changes? The steep topography and large climatic gradients of the Great Salt Lake Basin yield hydrologic systems that are dominated by non-linear interactions between snow deposition and snow melt in the mountains, stream flow and groundwater recharge in the mid-elevations, and evaporative losses from the desert floor at lower elevations. Because the Great Salt Lake Basin terminates in a closed basin lake, it is uniquely suited to closing the water, solute, and sediment balances in a way that is rarely possible in a watershed of a size sufficient for coupling to investigations of atmospheric processes. Proposed infrastructure will include representative densely instrumented focus areas that will be nested within a basin-wide network, thereby quantifying fluxes, residence times, pathways, and storage volumes over a range of scales and land uses. The significant and rapid ongoing urbanization presents the opportunity for observations that quantify the interactions among hydrologic processes, human induced changes and social and economic dynamics. One proposed focus area will be a unique, highly instrumented mountain-to-basin transect that will quantify hydrologic processes extending from the mountain ridge top to the Great Salt Lake. The transect will range in elevation from about 1200 m to 3200 m, with a corresponding range in precipitation from about 15 cm/yr to 150 cm/yr, range in evapotranspiration regimes from semi-arid to alpine, range in groundwater residence times from 10 to 10,000 years, and ranges in biome type from semi-arid shrubland to alpine tundra, all within a 30 km distance. Atmospheric and surface fluxes and stores (precipitation, evapotranspiration, snow, soil moisture) will be quantified using an array of in-situ surface stations and remote sensing platforms. Deep (greater than 300 m) multilevel sampling wells will be used to measure ground water levels, fluxes, and for sampling of age dating and environmental tracers. Another proposed focus effort will involve lake sediment core analyses complemented by monitoring of dissolved and suspended constituents in surrounding tributaries, to provide a basis for examination of closed basin lakes as integrators and recorders of biogeochemical signals that would otherwise not be discerned based on discreet measurements made in individual tributary watersheds. Core-derived climate and contaminant-nutrient trends through time will be investigated at locations distributed from the top to the bottom of the hydrologic system.

What is the relative role of initial hydrological conditions and meteorological forcing to the seasonal hydrological forecasting skill? Analysis along Europe's hydro-climatic gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Crochemore, Louise

2017-04-01

Recent advances in understanding and forecasting of climate have led into skilful seasonal meteorological predictions, which can consequently increase the confidence of hydrological prognosis. The majority of seasonal impact modelling has commonly been conducted at only one or a limited number of basins limiting the potential to understand large systems. Nevertheless, there is a necessity to develop operational seasonal forecasting services at the pan-European scale, capable of addressing the end-user needs. The skill of such forecasting services is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty, i.e. model structure, parameters, and forcing input. In here, we complement the "deep" knowledge from basin based modelling by investigating the relative contributions of initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of a seasonal pan-European hydrological forecasting system. We use the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP (revESP) procedure to show a proxy of hydrological forecasting uncertainty due to MF and IHC uncertainties respectively. We further calculate the critical lead time (CLT), as a proxy of the river memory, after which the importance of MFs surpasses the importance of IHCs. We analyze these results in the context of prevailing hydro-climatic conditions for about 35000 European basins. Both model state initialisation (level in surface water, i.e. reservoirs, lakes and wetlands, soil moisture, snow depth) and provision of climatology are based on forcing input derived from the WFDEI product for the period 1981-2010. The analysis shows that the contribution of ICs and MFs to the hydrological forecasting skill varies considerably according to location, season and lead time. This analysis allows clustering of basins in which hydrological forecasting skill may be improved by better estimation of IHCs, e.g. via data assimilation of in-situ and/or satellite observations; whereas in other basins skill improvement depends on better MFs.

Application of advanced data assimilation techniques to the study of cloud and precipitation feedbacks in the tropical climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posselt, Derek J.

The research documented in this study centers around two topics: evaluation of the response of precipitating cloud systems to changes in the tropical climate system, and assimilation of cloud and precipitation information from remote-sensing platforms. The motivation for this work proceeds from the following outstanding problems: (1) Use of models to study the response of clouds to perturbations in the climate system is hampered by uncertainties in cloud microphysical parameterizations. (2) Though there is an ever-growing set of available observations, cloud and precipitation assimilation remains a difficult problem, particularly in the tropics. (3) Though it is widely acknowledged that cloud and precipitation processes play a key role in regulating the Earth's response to surface warming, the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to climate perturbations remains largely unknown. The above issues are addressed in the following manner. First, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to quantify the sensitivity of the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud resolving model (CRM) to changes in its cloud odcrnpbymiC8l parameters. TRMM retrievals of precipitation rate, cloud properties, and radiative fluxes and heating rates over the South China Sea are then assimilated into the GCE model to constrain cloud microphysical parameters to values characteristic of convection in the tropics, and the resulting observation-constrained model is used to assess the response of the tropical hydrologic cycle to surface warming. The major findings of this study are the following: (1) MCMC provides an effective tool with which to evaluate both model parameterizations and the assumption of Gaussian statistics used in optimal estimation procedures. (2) Statistics of the tropical radiation budget and hydrologic cycle can be used to effectively constrain CRM cloud microphysical parameters. (3) For 2D CRM simulations run with and without shear, the precipitation efficiency of cloud systems increases with increasing sea surface temperature, while the high cloud fraction and outgoing shortwave radiation decrease.

Vulnerability of Oregon hydrologic landscapes and streamflow to climate change

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic classification systems can provide a basis for broadscale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors. Such assessments could be particularly useful in determining hydrologic vulnerability from climate change. ...

Climate Change-Induced Shifts in the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Amazon Basin and Its Impacts on Local Eco-Hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zulkafli, Z. D.; Buytaert, W.; Veliz, C.

2014-12-01

The potential impact of a changing climate on Andean-Amazonian hydrology is an important question for scientists and policymakers alike, because of its implications for local ecosystem services such as water resources availability, river flow regulation, and eco-hydrology. This study presents new projections of climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of the upper Amazon river in Peru, and the consequent effect on two vulnerable species of freshwater turtle populations Podocnemis expansa (Amazon turtle) and Podocnemis unilis (yellow-spotted side neck turtle), which nest on its banks. To do this, the global climate model outputs of radiation, temperature, precipitation, wind, and humidity data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are propagated through a hydrological model to simulate changes in river flow. The model consists of a land surface scheme called the Joint-UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) that is coupled to a distributed river flow routing routine, which also accounts for floodplain attenuation of flood peaks. It is parameterized using a combination of remote sensing (TRMM, MODIS, an Landsat) and ground observational data to reproduce reliably the historical floodplain regime. The climate-induced shifts are inferred from a comparison between the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 projections against the historical scenario. Changes in the 10th and 95th percentile of flows, as well as the distributions in the length of the dry and wet seasons are analysed. These parameters are then used to construct probability models of biologically significant events (BSEs - extreme dry year, extreme wet year and repiquete), which are negative drivers of the turtle-egg ovipositioning, nesting and hatching. The results indicate that the projected increase in wet-season precipitation overcome the increase in evapotranspirative demand from an increase in temperature, resulting in more frequent and longer term flooding that causes a net loss of total turtle-egg counts. Additionally, changes in air and water temperature may alter the male / female ratio of the turtles.

Evaluation of uncertainty in capturing the spatial variability and magnitudes of extreme hydrological events for the uMngeni catchment, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton Toucher, Michele L.; van Garderen, Emma Archer

2018-02-01

Downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) output are used to forecast climate change and provide information used as input for hydrological modelling. Given that our understanding of climate change points towards an increasing frequency, timing and intensity of extreme hydrological events, there is therefore the need to assess the ability of downscaled GCMs to capture these extreme hydrological events. Extreme hydrological events play a significant role in regulating the structure and function of rivers and associated ecosystems. In this study, the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method was adapted to assess the ability of simulated streamflow (using downscaled GCMs (dGCMs)) in capturing extreme river dynamics (high and low flows), as compared to streamflow simulated using historical climate data from 1960 to 2000. The ACRU hydrological model was used for simulating streamflow for the 13 water management units of the uMngeni Catchment, South Africa. Statistically downscaled climate models obtained from the Climate System Analysis Group at the University of Cape Town were used as input for the ACRU Model. Results indicated that, high flows and extreme high flows (one in ten year high flows/large flood events) were poorly represented both in terms of timing, frequency and magnitude. Simulated streamflow using dGCMs data also captures more low flows and extreme low flows (one in ten year lowest flows) than that captured in streamflow simulated using historical climate data. The overall conclusion was that although dGCMs output can reasonably be used to simulate overall streamflow, it performs poorly when simulating extreme high and low flows. Streamflow simulation from dGCMs must thus be used with caution in hydrological applications, particularly for design hydrology, as extreme high and low flows are still poorly represented. This, arguably calls for the further improvement of downscaling techniques in order to generate climate data more relevant and useful for hydrological applications such as in design hydrology. Nevertheless, the availability of downscaled climatic output provide the potential of exploring climate model uncertainties in different hydro climatic regions at local scales where forcing data is often less accessible but more accurate at finer spatial scales and with adequate spatial detail.

Influence of climate on alpine stream chemistry and water sources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foks, Sydney; Stets, Edward; Singha, Kamini; Clow, David W.

2018-01-01

The resilience of alpine/subalpine watersheds may be viewed as the resistance of streamflow or stream chemistry to change under varying climatic conditions, which is governed by the relative size (volume) and transit time of surface and subsurface water sources. Here, we use end‐member mixing analysis in Andrews Creek, an alpine stream in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, from water year 1994 to 2015, to explore how the partitioning of water sources and associated hydrologic resilience change in response to climate. Our results indicate that four water sources are significant contributors to Andrews Creek, including snow, rain, soil water, and talus groundwater. Seasonal patterns in source‐water contributions reflected the seasonal hydrologic cycle, which is driven by the accumulation and melting of seasonal snowpack. Flushing of soil water had a large effect on stream chemistry during spring snowmelt, despite making only a small contribution to streamflow volume. Snow had a large influence on stream chemistry as well, contributing large amounts of water with low concentrations of weathering products. Interannual patterns in end‐member contributions reflected responses to drought and wet periods. Moderate and significant correlations exist between annual end‐member contributions and regional‐scale climate indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index, and the Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index). From water year 1994 to 2015, the percent contribution from the talus‐groundwater end member to Andrews Creek increased an average of 0.5% per year (p < 0.0001), whereas the percent contributions from snow plus rain decreased by a similar amount (p = 0.001). Our results show how water and solute sources in alpine environments shift in response to climate variability and highlight the role of talus groundwater and soil water in providing hydrologic resilience to the system.

Hydrologic impacts of land cover variability and change at seasonal to decadal time scales over North America, 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Land cover variability and change have been shown to influence the terrestrial hydrologic cycle by altering the partitioning of moisture and energy fluxes. However, the magnitude and directionality of the relationship between land cover and surface hydrology has been shown to vary substantially across regions. Here, we provide an assessment of the impacts of land cover change on hydrologic processes at seasonal (vegetation phenology) to decadal scales (land cover conversion) in the United States and Mexico. To this end, we combine time series of remotely-sensed land surface characteristics with land cover maps for different decades as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Land surface characteristics (leaf area index, surface albedo, and canopy fraction derived from normalized difference vegetation index) were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at 8-day intervals over the period 2000-2016. Land cover maps representing conditions in 1992, 2001, and 2011 were derived by homogenizing the National Land Cover Database over the US and the INEGI Series I through V maps over Mexico. An additional map covering all of North America was derived from the most frequent land cover class observed in each pixel of the MODIS MOD12Q1 product during 2001-2013. Land surface characteristics were summarized over land cover fractions at 1/16 degree (6 km) resolution. For each land cover map, hydrologic simulations were conducted that covered the period 1980-2013, using the best-available, hourly meteorological forcings at a similar spatial resolution. Based on these simulations, we present a comparison of the contributions of land cover change and climate variability at seasonal to decadal scales on the hydrologic and energy budgets, identifying the dominant components through time and space. This work also offers a valuable dataset on land cover variability and its hydrologic response for continental-scale assessments and modeling.

Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

2012-08-01

Satellite-based data, such as vegetation type and fractional vegetation cover, are widely used in hydrologic models to prescribe the vegetation state in a study region. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVM) simulate land surface hydrology. Incorporation of satellite-based data into a DGVM may enhance a model's ability to simulate land surface hydrology by reducing the task of model parameterization and providing distributed information on land characteristics. The objectives of this study are to (i) modify a DGVM for simulating land surface water balances; (ii) evaluate the modified model in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture, and surface runoff at regional or watershed scales; and (iii) gain insight into the ability of both the original and modified model to simulate large spatial scale land surface hydrology. To achieve these objectives, we introduce the "LPJ-hydrology" (LH) model which incorporates satellite-based data into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM. To evaluate the model we ran LH using historical (1981-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells for the conterminous US and for the entire world using coarser climate and land cover data. We evaluated the simulated ET, soil moisture, and surface runoff using a set of observed or simulated data at different spatial scales. Our results demonstrate that spatial patterns of LH-simulated annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data for the US; LH-modeled monthly stream flow for 12 major rivers in the US was consistent with observed values respectively during the years 1981-2006 (R2 > 0.46, p < 0.01; Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient > 0.52). The modeled mean annual discharges for 10 major rivers worldwide also agreed well (differences < 15%) with observed values for these rivers. Compared to a degree-day method for snowmelt computation, the addition of the solar radiation effect on snowmelt enabled LH to better simulate monthly stream flow in winter and early spring for rivers located at mid-to-high latitudes. In addition, LH-modeled monthly soil moisture for the state of Illinois (US) agreed well (R2 = 0.79, p < 0.01) with observed data for the years 1984-2001. Overall, this study justifies both the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land covers into a DGVM and the reliability of LH to simulate land-surface water balances. To better estimate surface/river runoff at mid-to-high latitudes, we recommended that LPJ-DGVM considers the effects of solar radiation on snowmelt.

Improving operational land surface model canopy evapotranspiration in Africa using a direct remote sensing approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, P.; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Boucher, M.; Cappelaere, B.; de Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Nouvellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

2013-03-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's economically poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled evapotranspiration (ET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a remote sensing model of transpiration (the primary component of ET), driven by a time series of vegetation indices, was used to substitute transpiration from the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Oregon State University, Air Force, and Hydrology Research Laboratory at National Weather Service Land Surface Model (GNOAH) to improve total ET model estimates for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against GNOAH ET and the remote sensing method using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance were at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites was poor, but better than the models before hybridization. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a simple canopy scheme that depends primarily on low bias surface climate reanalysis data and is driven primarily by a time series of vegetation indices.

Impact of forest maintenance on water shortages: Hydrologic modeling and effects of climate change.

PubMed

Luo, Pingping; Zhou, Meimei; Deng, Hongzhang; Lyu, Jiqiang; Cao, Wenqiang; Takara, Kaoru; Nover, Daniel; Geoffrey Schladow, S

2018-02-15

The importance of water quantity for domestic and industrial water supply, agriculture, and the economy more broadly has led to the development of many water quantity assessment methods. In this study, surface flow and soil water in the forested upper reaches of the Yoshino River are compared using a distributed hydrological model with Forest Maintenance Module under two scenarios; before and after forest maintenance. We also examine the impact of forest maintenance on these variables during extreme droughts. Results show that surface flow and soil water increased after forest maintenance. In addition, projections of future water resources were estimated using a hydrological model and the output from a 20km mesh Global Climate Model (GCM20). River discharge for the near-future (2015-2039) is similar to that of the present (1979-2003). Estimated river discharge for the future (2075-2099) was found to be substantially more extreme than in the current period, with 12m 3 /s higher peak discharge in August and 7m 3 /s lower in July compared to the discharges of the present period. Soil water for the future is estimated to be lower than for the present and near future in May. The methods discussed in this study can be applied in other regions and the results help elucidate the impact of forests and climate change on water resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of fine particulate matter on premature mortality under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, S.; Allen, R.; Lim, C. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change modulates concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) via modifying atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, surface PM2.5 is significantly associated with respiratory diseases and premature mortality. In this study, we assess the response of PM2.5 concentration to climate change in the future (end of 21st century) and its effects on year of life lost (YLL) and premature mortality. We use outputs from five models participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) to evaluate climate change effects on PM2.5: for present climate with current aerosol emissions and greenhouse gas concentrations, and for future climate, also with present-day aerosol emissions, but with end-of-the century greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea-ice. The results show that climate change is associated with an increase in PM2.5 concentration. Combined with global future population data from the United Nation (UN), we also find an increase in premature mortality and YLL.

Hydrologic connections between environmental and societal change at the Bonneville Salt Flats, Utah

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, B. B.; Harman, C. J.; Kipnis, E. L.; Liu, T.; Bernau, J. A.; Horel, J.

2017-12-01

The Bonneville Salt Flats (BSF) is an ephemeral and valued salt pan in northwestern Utah where a century of land speed racing and potash mining have created a complex and intertwined social and hydrologic system. The character of BSF changes on daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and geologic time scales in response to fluctuations in water balance, solute flux, and groundwater flow which is impacted by both local meteorology and water management associated with potash mining. In addition, the texture of the salt surface is changed by land use including racing activities, which impacts water fluxes through the crust. Ongoing research is focused on characterizing physical changes in the BSF environment and attributing observed changes in the landscape to specific processes and drivers. Five years of field observations and sampling, analyses of satellite imagery dating back the 1980s, and geochemical analysis of surface brines have shown that spatiotemporal changes in surface water and fluctuations in the surface salt footprint are linked to both climate and land use. Climate data over the last 30 years are examined to identify annual patterns in surface water balance at BSF to identify annual and seasonal climate constraints on flooding, evaporation, and desiccation cycles. A new weather station installed in the Fall of 2016 in the middle of BSF allows for unprecedented analyses of halite surface dynamics. Spatiotemporally dispersed stable isotope analyses of BSF surface brine samples constrain brine sources and evolution. An understanding of the processes that change the surface composition and texture through time inform interpretation of subsurface saline deposits at BSF. The wide range of temporal and spatial scales of observation help to guide to best management practices of this iconic natural resource.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

2016-04-01

Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some climates, and vice versa in others. How important this variability is in supporting a policy decision, depends largely on how a decision thresholds are set. For example in the case of the aridity index, with areas being denoted as arid with an index of 0.6 or above, we show that the variability is primarily of interest in transitional climates, such as the Mediterranean The analysis shows that while both LSM's and GHM's provide useful data, indices derived to support water resources management planning may differ substantially, depending on the model used. The analysis also identifies in which climates improvements to the models are particularly relevant to support the confidence with which decisions can be taken based on derived indicators.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

2017-08-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of eco-hydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965-1969) from -0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010-2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

Ecological responses of a large shallow lake (Okeechobee, Florida) to climate change and potential future hydrologic regimes.

PubMed

Havens, Karl E; Steinman, Alan D

2015-04-01

We considered how Lake Okeechobee, a large shallow lake in Florida, USA, might respond to altered hydrology associated with climate change scenarios in 2060. Water budgets and stage hydrographs were provided from the South Florida Water Management Model, a regional hydrologic model used to develop plans for Everglades restoration. Future scenarios include a 10% increase or decrease in rainfall (RF) and a calculated increase in evapotranspiration (ET), which is based on a 1.5 °C rise in temperature. Increasing RF and ET had counter-balancing effects on the water budget and when changing concurrently did not affect hydrology. In contrast, when RF decreased while ET increased, this resulted in a large change in hydrology. The surface elevation of the lake dropped by more than 2 m under this scenario compared to a future base condition, and extreme low elevation persisted for multiple years. In this declining RF/increasing ET scenario, the littoral and near-shore zones, areas that support emergent and submerged plants, were dry 55% of the time compared to less than 4% of the time in the future base run. There also were times when elevation increased as much as 3 m after intense RF events. Overall, these changes in hydrologic conditions would dramatically alter ecosystem services. Uncertainty about responses is highest at the pelagic-littoral interface, in regard to whether an extremely shallow lake could support submerged vascular plants, which are critical to the recreational fishery and for migratory birds. Along with improved regional climate modeling, research in that interface zone is needed to guide the adaptive process of Everglades restoration.

Ecological Responses of a Large Shallow Lake (Okeechobee, Florida) to Climate Change and Potential Future Hydrologic Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, Karl E.; Steinman, Alan D.

2015-04-01

We considered how Lake Okeechobee, a large shallow lake in Florida, USA, might respond to altered hydrology associated with climate change scenarios in 2060. Water budgets and stage hydrographs were provided from the South Florida Water Management Model, a regional hydrologic model used to develop plans for Everglades restoration. Future scenarios include a 10 % increase or decrease in rainfall (RF) and a calculated increase in evapotranspiration (ET), which is based on a 1.5 °C rise in temperature. Increasing RF and ET had counter-balancing effects on the water budget and when changing concurrently did not affect hydrology. In contrast, when RF decreased while ET increased, this resulted in a large change in hydrology. The surface elevation of the lake dropped by more than 2 m under this scenario compared to a future base condition, and extreme low elevation persisted for multiple years. In this declining RF/increasing ET scenario, the littoral and near-shore zones, areas that support emergent and submerged plants, were dry 55 % of the time compared to less than 4 % of the time in the future base run. There also were times when elevation increased as much as 3 m after intense RF events. Overall, these changes in hydrologic conditions would dramatically alter ecosystem services. Uncertainty about responses is highest at the pelagic-littoral interface, in regard to whether an extremely shallow lake could support submerged vascular plants, which are critical to the recreational fishery and for migratory birds. Along with improved regional climate modeling, research in that interface zone is needed to guide the adaptive process of Everglades restoration.

Southern Hemisphere anticyclonic circulation drives oceanic and climatic conditions in late Holocene southernmost Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, Annette; Schefuß, Enno; Andò, Sergio; Cawthra, Hayley C.; Frenzel, Peter; Kugel, Martin; Meschner, Stephanie; Mollenhauer, Gesine; Zabel, Matthias

2017-06-01

Due to the high sensitivity of southern Africa to climate change, a reliable understanding of its hydrological system is crucial. Recent studies of the regional climatic system have revealed a highly complex interplay of forcing factors on precipitation regimes. This includes the influence of the tropical easterlies, the strength of the southern hemispheric westerlies as well as sea surface temperatures along the coast of the subcontinent. However, very few marine records have been available in order to study the coupling of marine and atmospheric circulation systems. Here we present results from a marine sediment core, recovered in shallow waters off the Gouritz River mouth on the south coast of South Africa. Core GeoB18308-1 allows a closer view of the last ˜ 4 kyr. Climate sensitive organic proxies, like the distribution and isotopic composition of plant-wax lipids as well as indicators for sea surface temperatures and soil input, give information on oceanographic and hydrologic changes during the recorded time period. Moreover, the micropaleontology, mineralogical and elemental composition of the sediments reflect the variability of the terrigenous input to the core site. The combination of down-core sediment signatures and a catchment-wide provenance study indicate that the Little Ice Age ( ˜ 300-650 cal yr BP) was characterized by climatic conditions favorable to torrential flood events. The Medieval Climate Anomaly ( ˜ 950-650 cal yr BP) is expressed by lower sea surface temperatures in the Mossel Bay area and humid conditions in the Gouritz River catchment. These new results suggest that the coincidence of humid conditions and cooler sea surface temperatures along the south coast of South Africa resulted from a strengthened and more southerly anticyclonic circulation. Most probably, the transport of moisture from the Indian Ocean by strong subtropical easterlies was coupled with Agulhas Bank upwelling pulses, which were initiated by an increase in Agulhas Current strength.

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Goulden, Michael L.; Scott, Russell L.; Bible, Kenneth; Cardon, Zoe G.

2016-05-01

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site comparisons for contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types via the integration of measurement and modeling. Here, we incorporated the HR scheme of Ryel et al. (2002) into the NCAR Community Land Model Version 4.5 (CLM4.5), and examined the ability of the resulting hybrid model to capture the magnitude of HR flux and/or soil moisture dynamics from which HR can be directly inferred, to assess the impact of HR on land surface water and energy budgets, and to explore how the impact may depend on climate regimes and vegetation conditions. Eight AmeriFlux sites with contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types were studied, including the Wind River Crane site in Washington State, the Santa Rita Mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, and six sites along the Southern California Climate Gradient. HR flux, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture were properly simulated in the present study, even in the face of various uncertainties. Our cross-ecosystem comparison showed that the timing, magnitude, and direction (upward or downward) of HR vary across ecosystems, and incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 improved the model-measurement matches of evapotranspiration, Bowen ratio, and soil moisture particularly during dry seasons. Our results also reveal that HR has important hydrological impact in ecosystems that have a pronounced dry season but are not overall so dry that sparse vegetation and very low soil moisture limit HR.

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Using the Princeton/U Washington National Hydrologic Forecasting System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Roundy, J. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Mo, K. C.; Xia, Y.; Ek, M. B.

2011-12-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts or floods are a significant source of social and economic damage in many parts of the world. Having sufficient warning of extreme events allows managers to prepare for and reduce the severity of their impacts. A hydrologic forecast system can give seasonal predictions that can be used by mangers to make better decisions; however there is still much uncertainty associated with such a system. Therefore it is important to understand the forecast skill of the system before transitioning to operational usage. Seasonal reforecasts (1982 - 2010) from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (both version 1 (CFS) and version 2 (CFSv2), Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks and the European Seasonal Interannual Prediction (EUROSIP) system, are assessed for forecasting skill in drought prediction across the U.S., both singularly and as a multi-model system The Princeton/U Washington national hydrologic monitoring and forecast system is being implemented at NCEP/EMC via their Climate Test Bed as the experimental hydrological forecast system to support U.S. operational drought prediction. Using our system, the seasonal forecasts are biased corrected, downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to give seasonal forecasts of hydrologic variables with lead times of up to six months. Results are presented for a number of events, with particular focus on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River Basin in the South Eastern United States, which has experienced a number of severe droughts in recent years and is a pilot study basin for the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The performance of the VIC land surface model is evaluated using observational forcing when compared to observed streamflow. The effectiveness of the forecast system to predict streamflow and soil moisture is evaluated when compared with observed streamflow and modeled soil moisture driven by observed atmospheric forcing. The forecast skills from the dynamical seasonal models (CFSv1, CFSv2, EUROSIP) and CPC are also compared with forecasts based on the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, which uses initial conditions and historical forcings to generate seasonal forecasts. The skill of the system to predict drought, drought recovery and related hydrological conditions such as low-flows is assessed, along with quantified uncertainty.

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiskel, Peter K.; Wolock, David M.; Zarriello, Phillip J.; Vogel, Richard M.; Levin, Sara B.; Lent, Robert M.

2014-01-01

Runoff-based indicators of terrestrial water availability are appropriate for humid regions, but have tended to limit our basic hydrologic understanding of drylands – the dry-subhumid, semiarid, and arid regions which presently cover nearly half of the global land surface. In response, we introduce an indicator framework that gives equal weight to humid and dryland regions, accounting fully for both vertical (precipitation + evapotranspiration) and horizontal (groundwater + surface-water) components of the hydrologic cycle in any given location – as well as fluxes into and out of landscape storage. We apply the framework to a diverse hydroclimatic region (the conterminous USA) using a distributed water-balance model consisting of 53 400 networked landscape hydrologic units. Our model simulations indicate that about 21% of the conterminous USA either generated no runoff or consumed runoff from upgradient sources on a mean-annual basis during the 20th century. Vertical fluxes exceeded horizontal fluxes across 76% of the conterminous area. Long-term-average total water availability (TWA) during the 20th century, defined here as the total influx to a landscape hydrologic unit from precipitation, groundwater, and surface water, varied spatially by about 400 000-fold, a range of variation ~100 times larger than that for mean-annual runoff across the same area. The framework includes but is not limited to classical, runoff-based approaches to water-resource assessment. It also incorporates and reinterprets the green- and blue-water perspective now gaining international acceptance. Implications of the new framework for several areas of contemporary hydrology are explored, and the data requirements of the approach are discussed in relation to the increasing availability of gridded global climate, land-surface, and hydrologic data sets.

Hydrologic processes in China and their association with summer precipitation anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Pollard, D.; Barron, E. J.

2005-01-01

A climate version of MM5 is applied to study hydrologic processes in China and their association with precipitation anomalies in 1980 and 1985, which are two anomalous years with opposite signs of summer precipitation anomalies. The study reveals that anomalous atmospheric moisture transport due to synoptic scale circulation was primarily responsible for initiating the anomalous wet (dry) summer in south-central China and dry (wet) summer in northeastern China in 1980 (1985). The recycling ratio (defined as contribution of local evaporation to total precipitation) ranges from less than 4% in northwestern China to more than 30% in south-central China at 1000 km space scale. Higher (lower) values of recycling ratio correspond to drier (wetter) summers in south-central China and northeastern China. However, the opposite is true in northwestern China. The recycling ratio reflects feedback among hydrologic components over both land and atmosphere. In northwestern China, these feedbacks will further sustain drought events that are triggered by anomalous synoptic scale disturbances, and turn them into prolonged and possibly perpetual phenomenon. However, in south-central China and northeastern China, these feedbacks help reducing severity of drought. The large differences in recycling ratio between the dry and wet years of 1980 and 1985 are indicative of powerful feedback between hydrologic and climatic processes, and imply that surface-atmosphere interaction in China is highly sensitive to climatic perturbation.

Under the glacier, the groundwater - the case of Skálafell area, Iceland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Aude; Hart, Jane

2017-04-01

The research addressing glaciers evolution under climate change is well developed, and is now looking not only at their mass balance, but also at the associated subsurface hydrology and downstream hydrology. However, the groundwater component is rarely considered, even though it will be required to forecast the evolution of water resources and of water linked hazards under climate change. The few available studies demonstrate the existence of sub-or pro-glacial aquifers. Some of them suggest strong coupling between rivers and the aquifer, observe the flooding due to water table rising following enhanced glacier melting, or expect stronger recharge in the future due to glacier melting. The present study is the first step of a wider project, GlacAq, aiming at filling this knowledge gap, by characterizing the particular hydrogeology encountered under and downstream of glaciers of alpine type, i.e. sub-, pro- and periglacial hydrogeology, and its sensibility to climate change, in order to provide operational management directions. Skálafell glacier area (Iceland) has been chosen as it has already been followed for climatic, glaciological, and surface hydrology data (Hart et al. (2015), Young et al. (2015)). The present work will use those data, as well as topographic and surface data from the National Land Survey of Iceland, and geological data, to run a comprehensive numerical modelling. The work conducted on the Skálafell site will lead both to the achievement of an operational understanding of a poorly known underground system, and to the anticipation of its hydrodynamic response to climate change. The foreseen mechanisms include an enhanced sub-glacial aquifer recharge, intense surface water bodies-aquifer exchanges, and the aquifer discharge either through springs, or to an offshore system. Those offshore stocks are being increasingly recognised, but their origins are still only guessed at. Skálafell site allows the exploration of the potential role of the glacier-aquifer pairing in the mechanism of deep recharge and formation of offshore fresh groundwater stocks in littoral areas will be performed.

How will the future warming climate impact the river discharge in the alpine mountain region of upper Heihe River Basin?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Yang, H.; Yang, D.; Gao, B.; Qin, Y.

2017-12-01

The Tibetan Plateau is more sensitive to the global climate change than other areas due to its special geography. Previous studies have shown that, besides the changes of temperature and precipitation, the changes in the cryosphere such as glacier and frozen ground also have important and far-reaching effects on the ecological and hydrological processes in the basin. In order to reliably predict the future runoff changing trend in the future, it's important to estimate the responses of cryosphere to the future climate change, as well as its impacts on the hydrological processes. Based on typical future climate scenarios (under emission scenario RCP4.5) from five general circulation models (GCMs) and one regional climate model (RCM), as well as a distributed eco-hydrological model (GBEHM), this study analyzes the possible future climate change (from 2011 to 2060) and its impacts on cryospheric and hydrological processes in upper Heihe River Basin, a typical cold mountain region located in the Northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results suggest that air temperature is expected to rise in the future by approximately 0.32 °C/10a, and precipitation is expected to rise slightly by about 3 mm/10a. Under the rising air temperature, the maximum frozen depth of seasonally frozen ground will decrease by about 4.1 cm/10a and the active layer depth of the frozen ground will increase by about 6.2 cm/10a. The runoff is expected to reduce by approximately 6 mm/10a and the evapotranspiration is expected to increase by approximately 9 mm/10a. These changes in hydrological processes are mainly caused by the air temperature rise. The impacts of air temperature change on the hydrological processes are mainly due to the changes of frozen ground. The thickening of active layer of the frozen ground increases the soil storage capacity, leading to the decrease of runoff and increase of evapotranspiration. Results show that, when the active layer depth increase by 1 cm, the runoff will decrease by about 1 2 mm and the evapotranspiration will increase by about 0.7 2 mm. Additionally, the changes from permafrost to seasonal frozen ground increase the groundwater infiltration, which also leads to the decrease of surface runoff.

Vulnerability of Oregon Hydrologic Landscapes and Streamflow to Climate Change - 5/20/2014

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic classification systems can provide a basis for broadscale assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and watersheds and their responses to stressors. Such assessments could be particularly useful in determining hydrologic vulnerability from climate change. A...

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

PubMed Central

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

Understanding the biological underpinnings of ecohydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Jenerette, D.; Tissue, D. T.; Breshears, D. D.; Saleska, S. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents a challenge for predicting ecosystem response, as multiple factors drive both the physical and life processes happening on the land surface and their interactions result in a complex, evolving coupled system. For example, changes in surface temperature and precipitation influence near-surface hydrology through impacts on system energy balance, affecting a range of physical processes. These changes in the salient features of the environment affect biological processes and elicit responses along the hierarchy of life (biochemistry to community composition). Many of these structural or process changes can alter patterns of soil water-use and influence land surface characteristics that affect local climate. Of the many features that affect our ability to predict the future dynamics of ecosystems, it is this hierarchical response of life that creates substantial complexity. Advances in the ability to predict or understand aspects of demography help describe thresholds in coupled ecohydrological system. Disentangling the physical and biological features that underlie land surface dynamics following disturbance are allowing a better understanding of the partitioning of water in the time-course of recovery. Better predicting the timing of phenology and key seasonal events allow for a more accurate description of the full functional response of the land surface to climate. In addition, explicitly considering the hierarchical structural features of life are helping to describe complex time-dependent behavior in ecosystems. However, despite this progress, we have yet to build an ability to fully account for the generalization of the main features of living systems into models that can describe ecohydrological processes, especially acclimation, assembly and adaptation. This is unfortunate, given that many key ecosystem services are functions of these coupled co-evolutionary processes. To date, both the lack of controlled measurements and experimentation has precluded determination of sufficient theoretical development. Understanding the land-surface response and feedback to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the coupling of ecological and hydrological processes and an expansion of theory from the life sciences to appropriately contribute to the broader Earth system science goal.

The hydrological cycle at European Fluxnet sites: modeling seasonal water and energy budgets at local scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockli, R.; Vidale, P. L.

2003-04-01

The importance of correctly including land surface processes in climate models has been increasingly recognized in the past years. Even on seasonal to interannual time scales land surface - atmosphere feedbacks can play a substantial role in determining the state of the near-surface climate. The availability of soil moisture for both runoff and evapotranspiration is dependent on biophysical processes occuring in plants and in the soil acting on a wide time-scale from minutes to years. Fluxnet site measurements in various climatic zones are used to drive three generations of LSM's (land surface models) in order to assess the level of complexity needed to represent vegetation processes at the local scale. The three models were the Bucket model (Manabe 1969), BATS 1E (Dickinson 1984) and SiB 2 (Sellers et al. 1996). Evapotranspiration and runoff processes simulated by these models range from simple one-layer soils and no-vegetation parameterizations to complex multilayer soils, including realistic photosynthesis-stomatal conductance models. The latter is driven by satellite remote sensing land surface parameters inheriting the spatiotemporal evolution of vegetation phenology. In addition a simulation with SiB 2 not only including vertical water fluxes but also lateral soil moisture transfers by downslope flow is conducted for a pre-alpine catchment in Switzerland. Preliminary results are presented and show that - depending on the climatic environment and on the season - a realistic representation of evapotranspiration processes including seasonally and interannually-varying state of vegetation is significantly improving the representation of observed latent and sensible heat fluxes on the local scale. Moreover, the interannual evolution of soil moisture availability and runoff is strongly dependent on the chosen model complexity. Biophysical land surface parameters from satellite allow to represent the seasonal changes in vegetation activity, which has great impact on the yearly budget of transpiration fluxes. For some sites, however, the hydrological cycle is simulated reasonably well even with simple land surface representations.

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1982

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, D.O.; Sturrock, A.M.; Scarborough, J.L.; Winter, T.C.

1988-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Those climatic data needed for energy budget and mass transfer studies are presented , including: water surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and atmospheric radiation. Some calculated values necessary for these studies are also presented, such as vapor pressure and Bowen-ratio values. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Climatic data for Williams Lake, Hubbard County, Minnesota, 1986

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberry, D.O.; Sturrock, A.M.; Winter, T.C.

1988-01-01

Research on the hydrology of Williams Lake, north-central Minnesota includes study of evaporation. Presented here are those climatic data needed for energy-budget and mass-transfer studies, including: water-surface temperature, dry-bulb and wet-bulb air temperatures, wind speed, precipitation, and solar and atmospheric radiation. Some calculated values necessary for these studies, such as vapor pressure and Bowen ratio numbers, also are presented. Data are collected at raft and land stations.

Towards A Synthesis Of Land Dynamics And Hydrological Processes Across Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolik, I. N.; Tatarskii, V.; Shiklomanov, A. I.; Henebry, G. M.; de Beurs, K.; Laruelle, M.

2016-12-01

We present results from an ongoing project that aims to synthesize land dynamics, hydrological processes, and socio-economic changes across the five countries of Central Asia. We have developed a fully coupled model that takes into account the reconstructed land cover and land use dynamics to simulate dust emissions. A comparable model has been developed to model smoke emissions from wildfires. Both models incorporate land dynamics explicitly. We also present a characterization of land surface change based on a suite of MODIS products including vegetation indices, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature, and albedo. These results are connected with ongoing land privatization reforms that different across the region. We also present a regional analysis of water resources, including the significant impact of using surface water for irrigation in an arid landscape. We applied the University of New Hampshire hydrological model to understand the consequences of changes in climate, water, and land use on regional hydrological processes and water use. Water security and its dynamic have been estimated through an analysis of multiple indices and variables characterizing the water availability and water use. The economic consequences of the water privatization processes will be presented.

A First Look at Decadal Hydrological Predictability by Land Surface Ensemble Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhu, Enda

2018-03-01

The prediction of terrestrial hydrology at the decadal scale is critical for managing water resources in the face of climate change. Here we conducted an assessment by global land model simulations following the design of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) decadal hindcast experiments, specifically testing for the sensitivity to perfect initial or boundary conditions. The memory for terrestrial water storage (TWS) is longer than 6 years over 11% of global land areas where the deep soil moisture and aquifer water have a long memory and a nonnegligible variability. Ensemble decadal predictions based on realistic initial conditions are skillful over 31%, 43%, and 59% of global land areas for TWS, deep soil moisture, and aquifer water, respectively. The fraction of skillful predictions for TWS increases by 10%-16% when conditioned on Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation indices. This study provides a first look at decadal hydrological predictability, with an improved skill when incorporating low-frequency climate information.

Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

PubMed

Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

2012-10-01

Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Satellite-derived temperature data for monitoring water status in a floodplain forest of the Upper Sabine River, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lemon, Mary Grace T.; Allen, Scott T.; Edwards, Brandon L.; King, Sammy L.; Keim, Richard F.

2016-01-01

Decreased water availability due to hydrologic modifications, groundwater withdrawal, and climate change threaten bottomland hardwood (BLH) forest communities. We used satellite-derived (MODIS) land-surface temperature (LST) data to investigate spatial heterogeneity of canopy temperature (an indicator of plant-water status) in a floodplain forest of the upper Sabine River for 2008–2014. High LST pixels were generally further from the river and at higher topographic locations, indicating lower water-availability. Increasing rainfall-derived soil moisture corresponded with decreased heterogeneity of LST between pixels but there was weaker association between Sabine River stage and heterogeneity. Stronger dependence of LST convergence on rainfall rather than river flow suggests that some regions are less hydrologically connected to the river, and vegetation may rely on local precipitation and other contributions to the riparian aquifer to replenish soil moisture. Observed LST variations associated with hydrology encourage further investigation of the utility of this approach for monitoring forest stress, especially with considerations of climate change and continued river management.

Hydrocentric view of Agro-ecosystem Resiliency to Extreme Hydrometeorological and Climate Events in the High Plains, US.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Sharma, Ashutosh; Werner, Katherine; Chacon, Juan-Carlos; Corzo, Gerald; Goyal, Manish-Kumar

2017-04-01

An increasing incidence of Hydrometeorological and Climate Extreme Events (EHCEs) is challenging food, water, and ecosystem services security at local to global contexts. This study aims to understand how a large-scale representation of agroecosystems and ecosystems respond to EHCE in the Northern Highplains, US. To track such responses the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) Land Surface Hydrology model was used and two experiments were implemented. The first experiment uses the LAI MODIS15A2 product to capture dynamic responses of vegetation with a time span from 2000 to 2013. The second experiment used a climatological fixed seasonal cycle calculated as the average from the 2000-2013 dynamic MODIS15A2 product to isolate vegetation from soil physical responses. Based on the analyses of multiple hydrological variables and state variables and high-level organization of agroecosystems and ecosystems, we evidence how the influence of droughts and anomalously wet conditions affect hydrological resilience at large scale.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Identification of statistically independent climatic pattern in GRACE and hydrological model data over West-Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.; Hoffmann-Dobrev, H.

2012-04-01

West-African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources, for instance reduced freshwater availability, and changes in the frequency, duration and magnitude of droughts and floods. Extracting the main patterns of water storage change in West Africa from remote sensing and linking them to climate variability, is therefore an essential step to understand the hydrological aspects of the region. In this study, the higher order statistical method of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is employed to extract statistically independent water storage patterns from monthly Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), from the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over West Africa, for the period 2002-2012. Then, to reveal the influences of climatic teleconnections on the individual patterns, these results were correlated to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indices. To study the predictability of water storage changes, advanced statistical methods were applied on the main independent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans for the period 2002-2012 and the ICA results. Our results show a water storage decrease over the coastal regions of West Africa (including Sierra Leone, Liberia, Togo and Nigeria), associated with rainfall decrease. The comparison between GRACE estimations and WGHM results indicates some inconsistencies that underline the importance of forcing data for hydrological modeling of West Africa. Keywords: West Africa; GRACE-derived water storage; ICA; ENSO; IOD

BALTEX—an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckermann, Marcus; Langner, Joakim; Omstedt, Anders; von Storch, Hans; Keevallik, Sirje; Schneider, Bernd; Arheimer, Berit; Markus Meier, H. E.; Hünicke, Birgit

2011-10-01

BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993-2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003-12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.

GC23G-1310: Investigation Into the Effects of Climate Variability and Land Cover Change on the Hydrologic System of the Lower Mekong Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markert, Kel N.; Griffin, Robert; Limaye, Ashutosh S.; McNider, Richard T.; Anderson, Eric R.

2016-01-01

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is an economically and ecologically important region that experiences hydrologic hazards such as floods and droughts, which can directly affect human well-being and limit economic growth and development. To effectively develop long-term plans for addressing hydrologic hazards, the regional hydrological response to climate variability and land cover change needs to be evaluated. This research aims to investigate how climate variability, specifically variations in the precipitation regime, and land cover change will affect hydrologic parameters both spatially and temporally within the LMB. The research goal is achieved by (1) modeling land cover change for a baseline land cover change scenario as well as changes in land cover with increases in forest or agriculture and (2) using projected climate variables and modeled land cover data as inputs into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to simulate the changes to the hydrologic system. The VIC model outputs were analyzed against historic values to understand the relative contribution of climate variability and land cover to change, where these changes occur, and to what degree these changes affect the hydrology. This study found that the LMB hydrologic system is more sensitive to climate variability than land cover change. On average, climate variability was found to increase discharge and evapotranspiration (ET) while decreasing water storage. The change in land cover show that increasing forest area will slightly decrease discharge and increase ET while increasing agriculture area increases discharge and decreases ET. These findings will help the LMB by supporting individual country policy to plan for future hydrologic changes as well as policy for the basin as a whole.

From terrestrial to aquatic fluxes: Integrating stream dynamics within a dynamic global vegetation modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Jerad; Poulter, Benjamin; Emmett, Kristen; Cross, Molly; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Maneta, Marco

2016-04-01

Integrated terrestrial ecosystem models simulate the dynamics and feedbacks between climate, vegetation, disturbance, and hydrology and are used to better understand biogeography and biogeochemical cycles. Extending dynamic vegetation models to the aquatic interface requires coupling surface and sub-surface runoff to catchment routing schemes and has the potential to enhance how researchers and managers investigate how changes in the environment might impact the availability of water resources for human and natural systems. In an effort towards creating such a coupled model, we developed catchment-based hydrologic routing and stream temperature model to pair with LPJ-GUESS, a dynamic global vegetation model. LPJ-GUESS simulates detailed stand-level vegetation dynamics such as growth, carbon allocation, and mortality, as well as various physical and hydrologic processes such as canopy interception and through-fall, and can be applied at small spatial scales, i.e., 1 km. We demonstrate how the coupled model can be used to investigate the effects of transient vegetation dynamics and CO2 on seasonal and annual stream discharge and temperature regimes. As a direct management application, we extend the modeling framework to predict habitat suitability for fish habitat within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, a 200,000 km2 region that provides critical habitat for a range of aquatic species. The model is used to evaluate, quantitatively, the effects of management practices aimed to enhance hydrologic resilience to climate change, and benefits for water storage and fish habitat in the coming century.

Hydrological system dynamics of glaciated Karnali River Basin Nepal Himalaya using J2000 Hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.

2015-12-01

Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff contributed about 40%, 20% in subsurface while there is about 13% in the base flow. For better understanding and interpretation of the area there is still need of further coherent research and analysis for land use change and future climate change impact in the glaciered alpine catchment of Himalayan region.

Full-flow-regime storage-streamflow correlation patterns provide insights into hydrologic functioning over the continental US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Kuai; Shen, Chaopeng

2017-09-01

Interannual changes in low, median, and high regimes of streamflow have important implications for flood control, irrigation, and ecologic and human health. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites record global terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), providing an opportunity to observe, interpret, and potentially utilize the complex relationships between storage and full-flow-regime streamflow. Here we show that utilizable storage-streamflow correlations exist throughout vastly different climates in the continental US (CONUS) across low- to high-flow regimes. A panoramic framework, the storage-streamflow correlation spectrum (SSCS), is proposed to examine macroscopic gradients in these relationships. SSCS helps form, corroborate or reject hypotheses about basin hydrologic behaviors. SSCS patterns vary greatly over CONUS with climate, land surface, and geologic conditions. Data mining analysis suggests that for catchments with hydrologic settings that favor storage over runoff, e.g., a large fraction of precipitation as snow, thick and highly-permeable permeable soil, SSCS values tend to be high. Based on our results, we form the hypotheses that groundwater flow dominates streamflows in Southeastern CONUS and Great Plains, while thin soils in a belt along the Appalachian Plateau impose alimit on water storage. SSCS also suggests shallow water table caused by high-bulk density soil and flat terrain induces rapid runoff in several regions. Our results highlight the importance of subsurface properties and groundwater flow in capturing flood and drought. We propose that SSCS can be used as a fundamental hydrologic signature to constrain models and to provide insights thatlead usto better understand hydrologic functioning.

Hydrological change during the last 600 years as observed from landscape analysis and historical maps: a case study from the Nete catchment, Campine area, NE-Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beerten, Koen; Leterme, Bertrand

2015-04-01

Reliably predicting the future state of the hydrological system under transient climate and land use conditions is a major challenge. Hydrological models are usually calibrated and validated for a short time period (e.g. 30 years), for conditions that are similar to today's. In order to test model performance for future (unverifiable) projections, palaeohydrological modelling is first needed to build confidence in model output under different conditions. One of the major challenges of palaeohydrological modelling is the acquisition of verification data that is representative for the past state(s) of the hydrological system. Here, we present the reconstructed evolution of the groundwater table depth over the last six centuries, in a sandy interfluvium (20 km² with altitude varying between 16 m and 28 m a.s.l.) of the Nete catchment. For periods before 1770 AD, the altitude (depth) of blown-out surfaces in the drift sand landscape is used as a proxy for the average highest groundwater level. These surfaces are generally interpreted as the lower limit for wind erosion. Soil profiles investigations where these surfaces are overblown by younger drift sand show that they were created in the time period between ca. 1400 AD and 1600 AD. For younger periods, historical maps were analysed for the presence of surface water features, such as fens (shallow lakes that are groundwater fed in this sandy landscape under temperate climate), marshes and wetlands. The results clearly show declining water levels in the second half of the 19th century, i.e., between 1854 AD and 1909 AD. The decline is most pronounced for the higher areas of the interfluve (drift sand landscape) and becomes less clear towards the floodplains. The amount of groundwater level decline is 1-2 m on average. The cause for the synchronous groundwater level drop seems to be linked to land use and land cover changes during that period. In the time interval between 1854 AD and 1909 AD, the total length of drains increased from 2 km to 25 km, while land cover changed from 80% heathland and almost no trees to only 20% heathland and 50% coniferous forest. Available palaeoclimate records suggest that there is no correlation between groundwater level change and average annual temperature or precipitation. Furthermore, population density seems to be uncorrelated with the observed hydrological changes. Internal consistency checks are performed and found satisfactory. For example, the high groundwater levels predicted by the blown-out surfaces for 1400-1600 AD are confirmed by surface water features on younger historical maps (~1770 AD and ~1850 AD). Indeed, pollen analysis, topographical maps and climate records show that land cover and climate did not change significantly throughout the period 1400 AD to 1850 AD. We conclude that the proposed methods are useful tools to gather verification data (i.e., groundwater table depth) for palaeohydrological modelling in the European sand belt during the last millenium.

Investigating impacts of natural and human-induced environmental changes on hydrological processes and flood hazards using a GIS-based hydrological/hydraulic model and remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei

Natural and human-induced environmental changes have been altering the earth's surface and hydrological processes, and thus directly contribute to the severity of flood hazards. To understand these changes and their impacts, this research developed a GIS-based hydrological and hydraulic modeling system, which incorporates state-of-the-art remote sensing data to simulate flood under various scenarios. The conceptual framework and technical issues of incorporating multi-scale remote sensing data have been addressed. This research develops an object-oriented hydrological modeling framework. Compared with traditional lumped or cell-based distributed hydrological modeling frameworks, the object-oriented framework allows basic spatial hydrologic units to have various size and irregular shape. This framework is capable of assimilating various GIS and remotely-sensed data with different spatial resolutions. It ensures the computational efficiency, while preserving sufficient spatial details of input data and model outputs. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of high resolution LIDAR DEM with traditional USGS 30m resolution DEM suggests that the use of LIDAR DEMs can greatly reduce uncertainty in calibration of flow parameters in the hydrologic model and hence increase the reliability of modeling results. In addition, subtle topographic features and hydrologic objects like surface depressions and detention basins can be extracted from the high resolution LiDAR DEMs. An innovative algorithm has been developed to efficiently delineate surface depressions and detention basins from LiDAR DEMs. Using a time series of Landsat images, a retrospective analysis of surface imperviousness has been conducted to assess the hydrologic impact of urbanization. The analysis reveals that with rapid urbanization the impervious surface has been increased from 10.1% to 38.4% for the case study area during 1974--2002. As a result, the peak flow for a 100-year flood event has increased by 20% and the floodplain extent has expanded by about 21.6%. The quantitative analysis suggests that the large regional detentions basins have effectively offset the adverse effect of increased impervious surface during the urbanization process. Based on the simulation and scenario analyses of land subsidence and potential climate changes, some planning measures and policy implications have been derived for guiding smart urban growth and sustainable resource development and management to minimize flood hazards.

Development of a Digital Aquifer Permeability Map for the ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Researchers at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Western Ecology Division have been developing hydrologic landscape maps for selected U.S. states in an effort to create a method to identify the intrinsic watershed attributes of landscapes in regions with little data. Each hydrologic landscape unit is assigned a categorical value from five key indices of macro-scale hydrologic behavior, including annual climate, climate seasonality, aquifer permeability, terrain, and soil permeability. The aquifer permeability index requires creation of a from-scratch dataset for each state. The permeability index for the Pacific Southwest (California, Nevada, and Arizona) expands and modifies the permeability index for the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho), which preceded it. The permeability index was created by assigning geologic map units to one of 18 categories with presumed similar values of permeability to create a hydrolithologic map. The hydrolithologies were then further categorized into permeability index classifications of high, low, unknown and surface water. Unconsolidated, carbonate, volcanic, and undifferentiated units are classified more conservatively to better address uncertainty in source data. High vs. low permeability classifications are assigned qualitatively but follow a threshold guideline of 8.5x10-2 m/day hydraulic conductivity. Estimates of permeability from surface lithology is the current best practice for broad-sca

Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abramopoulos, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Choudhury, B.

1988-01-01

A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

Beyond greening and browning: the need for an integrated understanding of Arctic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gamon, J. A.; Huemmrich, K. F.; Hmimina, G.; Yu, R.

2017-12-01

Satellite records and field observations povide contradictory evidence for "greening" or "browning" of Arctic tundra. Large-scale observations of apparent greening have been based on satellite vegetation indices (e.g NDVI). However, a clear interpretation of these trends are confounded by changing snow cover and surface hydrology, both of which influence NDVI and are known to be changing independently of any direct vegetation response. Field studies have demonstrated greening in some areas, but not others, and have also documented changing permafrost depth, surface hydrology and snow cover. Together, these confounding factors can explain some of the contradictory evidence based regarding greening and browning. Given the multiple influences on Arctic NDVI, simple conclusions regarding greening and browning from satellite data alone can be incorrect; when these confounding factors are taken into account, some areas that show apparent greening in the satellite record appear to be undergoing productivity declines due to surface drying. These contradictory interpretations have profound implications for our understanding of changing surface energy balance, biogeochemistry, and surface-atmosphere feedbacks. To better address Arctic ecosystem responses to a changing climate, an integrated, multi-scale, multivariate approach that considers hydrology, permafrost, snow cover and vegetation is needed.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in climate and land cover are principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevad...

Future Climate Change Impacts on Surface Hydrology over Texas River Basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Gao, H.; Huang, M.; Sheffield, J.

2014-12-01

Future freshwater availability is a pressing issue in Texas due to frequent drought events and fast population growth. Even though the science community has well investigated future temperature trends, it is still unclear whether precipitation will increase or decrease in this region. Furthermore, there is a lack of understanding on how the changing climate will affect water resources across different spatial-temporal scales. This study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on surface hydrology at the basin scale under different future emission scenarios. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, forced by an ensemble of statistically downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, is employed to predict the future hydrology. The VIC model parameters are adopted from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at a spatial resolution of 1/8°. The CMIP5 projections contain four different scenarios in terms of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 w/m2). The analysis is carried out in three steps. First, the observed streamflows are used to evaluate the performance of VIC simulations forced by CMIP5 models during historical period. Second, VIC outputs under multiple CMIP5 model scenarios from 1950 to 2099 are analyzed to identify how soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, and routed streamflows change in time and space. Third, the spatial patterns of seasonal temperature, seasonal precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)—over four 20-year periods (1980-1999, 2010-2029, 2040-2059 and 2080-2099)—are used to pinpoint the regions that will be most affected by climate change (among the 13 Texan river basins). Furthermore, the role of groundwater in meeting the increasing needs for water supply is discussed. The results are expected to contribute to various future water resources management decisions in Texas.

Monitoring Land Surface Soil Moisture from Space with in-Situ Sensors Validation: The Huntsville Example

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Steve Shih-Tseng

1997-01-01

Based on recent advances in microwave remote sensing of soil moisture and in pursuit of research interests in areas of hydrology, soil climatology, and remote sensing, the Center for Hydrology, Soil Climatology, and Remote Sensing (HSCARS) conducted the Huntsville '96 field experiment in Huntsville, Alabama from July 1-14, 1996. We, researchers at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center's MSFC/ES41, are interested in using ground-based microwave sensors, to simulate land surface brightness signatures of those spaceborne sensors that were in operation or to be launched in the near future. The analyses of data collected by the Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) and the C-band radiometer, which together contained five frequencies (6.925,10.7,19.35, 37.1, and 85.5 GHz), and with concurrent in-situ collection of surface cover conditions (surface temperature, surface roughness, vegetation, and surface topology) and soil moisture content, would result in a better understanding of the data acquired over land surfaces by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR), because these spaceborne sensors contained these five frequencies. This paper described the approach taken and the specific objective to be accomplished in the Huntsville '97 field experiment.

Hydrological Retrospective of floods and droughts: Case study in the Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wongchuig Correa, Sly; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, Rodrigo; Carlo Espinoza Villar, Jhan; Collischonn, Walter

2017-04-01

Recent studies have reported an increase in intensity and frequency of hydrological extreme events in many regions of the Amazon basin over last decades, these events such as seasonal floods and droughts have originated a significant impact in human and natural systems. Recently, methodologies such as climatic reanalysis are being developed in order to create a coherent register of climatic systems, thus taking this notion, this research efforts to produce a methodology called Hydrological Retrospective (HR), that essentially simulate large rainfall datasets over hydrological models in order to develop a record over past hydrology, enabling the analysis of past floods and droughts. We developed our methodology on the Amazon basin, thus we used eight large precipitation datasets (more than 30 years) through a large scale hydrological and hydrodynamic model (MGB-IPH), after that HR products were validated against several in situ discharge gauges dispersed throughout Amazon basin, given focus in maximum and minimum events. For better HR results according performance metrics, we performed a forecast skill of HR to detect floods and droughts considering in-situ observations. Furthermore, statistical temporal series trend was performed for intensity of seasonal floods and drought in the whole Amazon basin. Results indicate that better HR represented well most past extreme events registered by in-situ observed data and also showed coherent with many events cited by literature, thus we consider viable to use some large precipitation datasets as climatic reanalysis mainly based on land surface component and datasets based in merged products for represent past regional hydrology and seasonal hydrological extreme events. On the other hand, an increase trend of intensity was realized for maximum annual discharges (related to floods) in north-western regions and for minimum annual discharges (related to drought) in central-south regions of the Amazon basin, these features were previously detected by other researches. In the whole basin, we estimated an upward trend of maximum annual discharges at Amazon River. In order to estimate better future hydrological behavior and their impacts on the society, HR could be used as a methodology to understand past extreme events occurrence in many places considering the global coverage of rainfall datasets.

Hydrological Changes in the Indian Ocean Around the Last Glacial Maximum and Deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camille, L.; Laurent, L.; Harry, E.; Mervyn, G.; Franck, B.; Francois, G.; Martine, P.; Xuan, D.; Marie-alexandrine, S.

2001-12-01

The tropical ocean plays a key role in the global climate system. However, changes in tropical circulation have far reaching and hitherto unknown effects which could trigger global changes in climate. Precisely dated reconstructions of past sea surface temperature (SST) changes are therefore mandatory in order to establish the exact phase between tropical and high latitude climate variability during past abrupt climate events. Few SST records are sufficiently detailed to constrain accurately the low latitude climatology around the last glacial maximum. Available results are presented from 2 high sedimentation rate cores (IMAGES MD9821-65 and MD9821-72) with additional material from older cruises. These cores are located within the inner part of the Indonesian arc and in the vicinity of the outflow straits (between Timor and Sumbawa). With high resolution records (about 100 yr.) for the past 20 kyr and lower resolution records back to 300 kyr., planktonic and benthic isotopic records set the general stratigraphy and the hydrology of surface and deep waters. Sea surface temperature is reconstructed using Mg/Ca content from G.ruber (analysed in Cambridge's ICP\\-AES), foraminiferal assemblages (MAT) and alkenone unsaturation index Uḱ37. Sea surface salinity is derived from the coupled G.ruber δ 18O and Mg/Ca ratio. The time scale is constrained by AMS14C and the benthic foraminifera δ 18O. Preliminary results would indicate that at the initiation of the deglaciation SST leads planktic δ 18O by about 1 kyr but are in phase with benthic δ 18O. Similar lead of the benthic vs planktic δ 18O is also observed in other cores from the Indian Ocean.

Impact du réchauffement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planton, Serge; Déqué, Michel; Douville, Hervé; Spagnoli, Bruno

2005-02-01

At the planetary scale, the models consistently simulate an intensification of the hydrological cycle in a future climate, warmer than the present-day one. However, this intensification might be accompanied by its slowing down due to an increase of the residence time of water vapour in the atmosphere. The impact of climate change on extreme events is even more difficult to evaluate, as results are dependent on methods, emission scenarios and, above all, on models. However, the increase of extreme winter precipitation over northern Europe is a common feature of these evaluations. The hydrological cycle, through the geographical distribution of continental surface humidity, seems to play a key role on the possibility to detect the warming in France. To cite this article: S. Planton et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).

Uncertainty in Arctic hydrology projections and the permafrost-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andresen, C. G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wilson, C. J.; McGuire, D.

2017-12-01

Projected warming is expected to thaw permafrost soils and deepen the permafrost active layer. These changes will affect surface hydrological conditions. Since the soil hydrologic state exerts a strong influence on the rate and pathway of soil organic matter decomposition into CO2 or CH4, there is a strong need to examine and better understand model projections of hydrologic change and how differences in process representation affect projections of wetting and/or drying of changing permafrost landscapes. This study aims to advance understanding of where, when and why arctic will become wetter or drier. We assessed simulations from 8 "permafrost enabled" land models that were run in offline mode from 1960 to 2299 forced with the same projected climate for a high-emissions scenario. Climate models project increased precipitation (P) across most of the Arctic domain and the land models indicate that runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) will also both increase. In general, the water input to the soil (P-ET) also increases, but the models project a contradicting long-term drying of the surface soil. The surface drying in the models can generally be explained by filtration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or by increased sub-surface drainage where permafrost in a grid cell thaws completely. Though, there is a qualitative agreement in this type of response across the models, the projections vary dramatically in magnitude. Variability among simulations is largely attributed to parameterization and structural differences across the participating models, particularly the diverse representations of evapotranspiration, water table and soil water storage and transmission. A limited set of results from single forcing experiments suggests that the warming effect in the sensitivity analysis was the principal driver of soil drying while CO2 and precipitation effects had a small wetting influence. When compared to observational data, simulations tend to underestimate discharge by a factor of 2 for the major arctic river basins. This analysis serves as a baseline to identify key process representation gaps and opportunities to improve representation of permafrost hydrology and associated projections of carbon and energy feedbacks in land models.

Toward Seasonal Forecasting of Global Droughts: Evaluation over USA and Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Yuan, Xing; Roundy, Joshua; Sheffield, Justin; Pan, Ming

2013-04-01

Extreme hydrologic events in the form of droughts are significant sources of social and economic damage. In the United States according to the National Climatic Data Center, the losses from drought exceed US210 billion during 1980-2011, and account for about 24% of all losses from major weather disasters. Internationally, especially for the developing world, drought has had devastating impacts on local populations through food insecurity and famine. Providing reliable drought forecasts with sufficient early warning will help the governments to move from the management of drought crises to the management of drought risk. After working on drought monitoring and forecasting over the USA for over 10 years, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing a global drought monitoring and forecasting system using a dynamical seasonal climate-hydrologic LSM-model (CHM) approach. Currently there is an active debate on the merits of the CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts as compared to Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and its previous version CFSv1, to investigate the value of seasonal climate model forecasts by conducting a set of 27-year seasonal hydrologic hindcasts over the USA. Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation (R2) and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation averaged over major river basins across the USA, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO show further improvements (out to four months) over river basins in the southern USA. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over central USA out to six months because of strong soil moisture memory, and seasonal climate models provide better results over central and eastern USA. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over USA is higher during winter, and climate models present added value especially at long leads. For countries with sparse networks and weak reporting systems, remote sensing observations can provide the realtime data for the monitoring of drought. More importantly, these datasets are now available for at least a decade, which allows for estimating a climatology against which current conditions can be compared. Based on our established experimental African Drought Monitor (ADM) (see http://hydrology.princeton.edu/~nchaney/ADM_ML), we use the downscaled CFSv2 climate forcings to drive the re-calibrated VIC model and produce 6-month, 20-member ensemble hydrologic forecasts over Africa starting on the 1st of each calendar month during 1982-2007. Our CHM-based seasonal hydrologic forecasts are now being analyzed for its skill in predicting short-term soil moisture droughts over Africa. Besides relying on a single seasonal climate model or a single drought index, preliminary forecast results will be presented using multiple seasonal climate models based on the NOAA-supported National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, and with multiple drought indices. Results will be presented for the USA NIDIS test beds such as Southeast US and Colorado NIDIS (National Integrated Drought Information System) test beds, and potentially for other regions of the globe.

Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen

Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of themore » Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.« less

Investigating and Modelling Effects of Climatically and Hydrologically Indicators on the Urmia Lake Coastline Changes Using Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmadijamal, M.; Hasanlou, M.

2017-09-01

Study of hydrological parameters of lakes and examine the variation of water level to operate management on water resources are important. The purpose of this study is to investigate and model the Urmia Lake water level changes due to changes in climatically and hydrological indicators that affects in the process of level variation and area of this lake. For this purpose, Landsat satellite images, hydrological data, the daily precipitation, the daily surface evaporation and the daily discharge in total of the lake basin during the period of 2010-2016 have been used. Based on time-series analysis that is conducted on individual data independently with same procedure, to model variation of Urmia Lake level, we used polynomial regression technique and combined polynomial with periodic behavior. In the first scenario, we fit a multivariate linear polynomial to our datasets and determining RMSE, NRSME and R² value. We found that fourth degree polynomial can better fit to our datasets with lowest RMSE value about 9 cm. In the second scenario, we combine polynomial with periodic behavior for modeling. The second scenario has superiority comparing to the first one, by RMSE value about 3 cm.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Observed Land Impacts on Clouds, Water Vapor, and Rainfall at Continental Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Menglin; King, Michael D.

2005-01-01

How do the continents affect large-scale hydrological cycles? How important can one continent be to the climate system? To address these questions, 4-years of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations, and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) global precipitation analysis, were used to assess the land impacts on clouds, rainfall, and water vapor at continental scales. At these scales, the observations illustrate that continents are integrated regions that enhance the seasonality of atmospheric and surface hydrological parameters. Specifically, the continents of Eurasia and North America enhance the seasonality of cloud optical thickness, cirrus fraction, rainfall, and water vapor. Over land, both liquid water and ice cloud effective radii are smaller than over oceans primarily because land has more aerosol particles. In addition, different continents have similar impacts on hydrological variables in terms of seasonality, but differ in magnitude. For example, in winter, North America and Eurasia increase cloud optical thickness to 17.5 and 16, respectively, while in summer, Eurasia has much smaller cloud optical thicknesses than North America. Such different land impacts are determined by each continent s geographical condition, land cover, and land use. These new understandings help further address the land-ocean contrasts on global climate, help validate global climate model simulated land-atmosphere interactions, and help interpret climate change over land.

An observational radiative constraint on hydrologic cycle intensification

DOE PAGES

DeAngelis, Anthony M.; Qu, Xin; Zelinka, Mark D.; ...

2015-12-09

We report that intensification of the hydrologic cycle is a key dimension of climate change, with substantial impacts on human and natural systems. A basic measure of hydrologic cycle intensification is the increase in global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming, which varies by a factor of three in current-generation climate models (about 1–3 per cent per kelvin). Part of the uncertainty may originate from atmosphere–radiation interactions. As the climate warms, increases in shortwave absorption from atmospheric moistening will suppress the precipitation increase. This occurs through a reduction of the latent heating increase required to maintain a balanced atmospheric energy budget.more » Using an ensemble of climate models, here we show that such models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of solar absorption to variations in atmospheric water vapour, leading to an underestimation in the shortwave absorption increase and an overestimation in the precipitation increase. This sensitivity also varies considerably among models due to differences in radiative transfer parameterizations, explaining a substantial portion of model spread in the precipitation response. Consequently, attaining accurate shortwave absorption responses through improvements to the radiative transfer schemes could reduce the spread in the predicted global precipitation increase per degree warming for the end of the twenty-first century by about 35 per cent, and reduce the estimated ensemble-mean increase in this quantity by almost 40 per cent.« less

Generating High Resolution Climate Scenarios Through Regional Climate Modelling Over Southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ndhlovu, G. Z.; Woyessa, Y. E.; Vijayaraghavan, S.

2017-12-01

limate change has impacted the global environment and the Continent of Africa, especially Southern Africa, regarded as one of the most vulnerable regions in Africa, has not been spared from these impacts. Global Climate Models (GCMs) with coarse horizontal resolutions of 150-300 km do not provide sufficient details at the local basin scale due to mismatch between the size of river basins and the grid cell of the GCM. This makes it difficult to apply the outputs of GCMs directly to impact studies such as hydrological modelling. This necessitates the use of regional climate modelling at high resolutions that provide detailed information at regional and local scales to study both climate change and its impacts. To this end, an experiment was set up and conducted with PRECIS, a regional climate model, to generate climate scenarios at a high resolution of 25km for the local region in Zambezi River basin of Southern Africa. The major input data used included lateral and surface boundary conditions based on the GCMs. The data is processed, analysed and compared with CORDEX climate change project data generated for Africa. This paper, highlights the major differences of the climate scenarios generated by PRECIS Model and CORDEX Project for Africa and further gives recommendations for further research on generation of climate scenarios. The climatic variables such as precipitation and temperatures have been analysed for flood and droughts in the region. The paper also describes the setting up and running of an experiment using a high-resolution PRECIS model. In addition, a description has been made in running the model and generating the output variables on a sub basin scale. Regional climate modelling which provides information on climate change impact may lead to enhanced understanding of adaptive water resources management. Understanding the regional climate modelling results on sub basin scale is the first step in analysing complex hydrological processes and a basis for designing of adaptation and mitigation strategies in the region. Key words: Climate change, regional climate modelling, hydrological processes, extremes, scenarios [1] Corresponding author: Email:gndhlovu@cut.ac.za Tel:+27 (0) 51 507 3072

The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Kevin D.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

Landsurface hydrological parameterizations are implemented in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: (1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface, and (2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water in the soil column. A one dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new landsurface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show comparable improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and landsurface) scale, to the zonal, continental, and finally the finer river basin scales.

Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

2008-12-01

We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for california wildfire, and their intersection with a range of development scenarios for California.

Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

2012-04-01

Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Nino teleconnection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenhouse gas induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation and an increase in evapotranspiration, both of which imply a decline in surface ...

The canopy horizontal array turbulence study

Treesearch

Edward G. Patton; Thomas W. Horst; Peter P. Sullivan; Donald H. Lenschow; Steven P. Oncley; William O. J. Brown; Sean P. Burns; Alex B. Guenther; Andreas Held; Thomas Karl; Shane D. Mayor; Luciana V. Rizzo; Scott M. Spuler; Jielun Sun; Andrew A. Turnipsee; Eugene J. Allwine; Steven L. Edburg; Brian K. Lamb; Roni Avissar; Ronald J. Calhoun; Jan Kleissl; William J. Massman; Kyaw Tha Paw U; Jeffrey C. Weil

2011-01-01

Vegetation covers nearly 30% of Earth's land surface and influences climate through the exchanges of energy, water, carbon dioxide, and other chemical species with the atmosphere (Bonan 2008). The Earth's vegetation plays a critical role in the hydrological, carbon, and nitrogen cycles and also provides habitat and shelter for biota that deliver essential...

The error structure of the SMAP single and dual channel soil moisture retrievals

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Knowledge of the temporal error structure for remotely-sensed surface soil moisture retrievals can improve our ability to exploit them for hydrology and climate studies. This study employs a triple collocation type analysis to investigate both the total variance and temporal auto-correlation of erro...

Modeling the Hydrologic Response to Changes in Groundcover Conditions Caused by Fire Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikinzon, E.; Atchley, A. L.; Coon, E.; Middleton, R. S.

2016-12-01

Climate change and fire suppression increase wildfire activity, which alters ecosystem functions and can significantly impact hydrological response. Both wildfire and prescribed burns reduce groundcover, affect top layers of subsurface, and change the structure of overland flow pathways. To understand respective effects on surface and subsurface hydrology, it is imperative to accurately represent surface-subsurface interface pre and post-fire, and to model physical processes in groundcover components. We show mechanistic models used to describe physics in two key types of groundcover, litter and duff, in Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS). Litter is considered to be a part of vegetative canopy covering the surface. It has associated water storage capacity, which allows simulating interception and drainage, and its thickness is used to evaluate surface roughness with potential effect of slowing overland flow compared to bare soil. Duff on the other hand is incorporated into the subsurface, thus requiring meshing and discretization capability to support complex geometries including pinchouts, which is necessary both for achieving desired mesh resolution and portraying bare soil patches without adversely affecting the time scale. As part of the subsurface, duff has its own hydrologic and water retention properties used to resolve infiltration and saturation limited runoff generation, run on, and infiltration processes. This enables the use of ATS for fine scale modeling of integrated hydrology with adequate representation of groundcover influence. To isolate the impact of changing groundcover, we consider a simple hill slope and study the hydrological response to varying amount and geometries of groundcover. To cover landscape characteristics produced by a wide variety of fire conditions, from high intensity to low intensity fire impacts, we simulate hydrologic response to precipitation events over a number of typical geometries and with fine control over amounts of two described types of groundcover. We then analyze hydrological sensitivity to presence or absence of particular groundcover types, their respective patchiness, and possible changes in overland flow pathways.

The global topography mission gains momentum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farr, Tom; Evans, Diane; Zebker, Howard; Harding, David; Bufton, Jack; Dixon, Timothy; Vetrella, S.; Gesch, Dean B.

1995-01-01

An accurate description of the surface elevation of the Earth is of fundamental importance to many branches of Earth science. Continental topographic data are required for studies of hydrology, ecology, glaciology, geomorphology, and atmospheric circulation. For example, in hydrologic and terrestrial ecosystem studies, topography exerts significant control on intercepted solar radiation, water runoff and subsurface water inventory, microclimate, vegetation type and distribution, and soil development. The topography of the polar ice caps and mountain glaciers directly reflects ice-flow dynamics and is closely linked to global climate and sea level change.

Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

2017-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff data provided by the National River Flood Archive using a number of model performance metrics. We use a calibrated conceptually-based lumped model, more typically applied in flood studies, as a benchmark for our analysis.

Sources of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact assessment: a cross-scale study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Vetter, T.; Breuer, L.; Su, Buda; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Fekete, B.; Flörke, F.; Gosling, S. N.; Hoffmann, P.; Liersch, S.; Masaki, Y.; Motovilov, Y.; Müller, C.; Samaniego, L.; Stacke, T.; Wada, Y.; Yang, T.; Krysnaova, V.

2018-01-01

Climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological extremes are major concerns as regards the Sustainable Development Goals. Impacts on hydrology are normally investigated as part of a modelling chain, in which climate projections from multiple climate models are used as inputs to multiple impact models, under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, which result in different amounts of global temperature rise. While the goal is generally to investigate the relevance of changes in climate for the water cycle, water resources or hydrological extremes, it is often the case that variations in other components of the model chain obscure the effect of climate scenario variation. This is particularly important when assessing the impacts of relatively lower magnitudes of global warming, such as those associated with the aspirational goals of the Paris Agreement. In our study, we use ANOVA (analyses of variance) to allocate and quantify the main sources of uncertainty in the hydrological impact modelling chain. In turn we determine the statistical significance of different sources of uncertainty. We achieve this by using a set of five climate models and up to 13 hydrological models, for nine large scale river basins across the globe, under four emissions scenarios. The impact variable we consider in our analysis is daily river discharge. We analyze overall water availability and flow regime, including seasonality, high flows and low flows. Scaling effects are investigated by separately looking at discharge generated by global and regional hydrological models respectively. Finally, we compare our results with other recently published studies. We find that small differences in global temperature rise associated with some emissions scenarios have mostly significant impacts on river discharge—however, climate model related uncertainty is so large that it obscures the sensitivity of the hydrological system.

Linked hydrologic and climate variations in British Columbia and Yukon.

PubMed

Whitfield, P H

2001-01-01

Climatic and hydrologic variations between the decades 1976-1985 and 1986-1995 are examined at 34 climate stations and 275 hydrology stations. The variations in climate are distributed across a broad spatial area. Temperatures were generally warmer in the most recent decade, with many stations showing significant increases during the spring and fall. No significant decreases in temperature were found. Significant increases in temperature were more frequent in the south than in the northern portions of the region. Significant changes in precipitation were also more prevalent in the south. In coastal areas, there were significant decreases in precipitation during the dry season, and significant increases during the wet season. In the BC interior, significant precipitation decreases occurred during the fall, with significant increases during the winter and spring. In the north there were few changes in precipitation. The hydrologic responses to these variations in climate follow six distinctive patterns. The spatial distribution of these patterns suggests that in different ecozones, small variations in climate, particularly temperature, elicit different hydrologic responses.

The Role of Rainfall Patterns in Seasonal Malaria Transmission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bomblies, A.

2010-12-01

Seasonal total precipitation is well known to affect malaria transmission because Anopheles mosquitoes depend on standing water for breeding habitat. However, the within-season temporal pattern of the rainfall influences persistence of standing water and thus rainfall patterns also affect mosquito population dynamics. In this talk, I show that intraseasonal rainfall pattern describes 40% of the variance in simulated mosquito abundance in a Niger Sahel village where malaria is endemic but highly seasonal, demonstrating the necessity for detailed distributed hydrology modeling to explain the variance from this important effect. I apply a field validated, high spatial- and temporal-resolution hydrology model coupled with an entomology model. Using synthetic rainfall time series generated using a stationary first-order Markov Chain model, I hold all variables except hourly rainfall constant, thus isolating the contribution of rainfall pattern to variance in mosquito abundance. I further show the utility of hydrology modeling to assess precipitation effects by analyzing collected water. Time-integrated surface area of pools explains 70% of the variance in mosquito abundance, and time-integrated surface area of pools persisting longer than seven days explains 82% of the variance, showing an improved predictive ability when pool persistence is explicitly modeled at high spatio-temporal resolution. I extend this analysis to investigate the impacts of this effect on malaria vector mosquito populations under climate shift scenarios, holding all climate variables except precipitation constant. In these scenarios, rainfall mean and variance change with climatic change, and the modeling approach evaluates the impact of non-stationarity in rainfall and the associated rainfall patterns on expected mosquito activity.

Impact of climate change and climate anomalies on hydrologic and biogeochemical processes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Diffuse nutrient pollution from agricultural landscapes is a priority water quality concern and the cause of mitigation activities worldwide. Climate change and climate variability impact hydrology, nutrient cycling, and ultimately water quality, which can complicate mitigation measures. Climate cha...

Quantifying the sources of uncertainty in an ensemble of hydrological climate-impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aryal, Anil; Shrestha, Sangam; Babel, Mukand S.

2018-01-01

The objective of this paper is to quantify the various sources of uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impact on hydrology in the Tamakoshi River Basin, located in the north-eastern part of Nepal. Multiple climate and hydrological models were used to simulate future climate conditions and discharge in the basin. The simulated results of future climate and river discharge were analysed for the quantification of sources of uncertainty using two-way and three-way ANOVA. The results showed that temperature and precipitation in the study area are projected to change in near- (2010-2039), mid- (2040-2069) and far-future (2070-2099) periods. Maximum temperature is likely to rise by 1.75 °C under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and by 3.52 °C under RCP 8.5. Similarly, the minimum temperature is expected to rise by 2.10 °C under RCP 4.5 and by 3.73 °C under RCP 8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. Similarly, the precipitation in the study area is expected to change by - 2.15% under RCP 4.5 and - 2.44% under RCP 8.5 scenarios. The future discharge in the study area was projected using two hydrological models, viz. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). The SWAT model projected discharge is expected to change by small amount, whereas HEC-HMS model projected considerably lower discharge in future compared to the baseline period. The results also show that future climate variables and river hydrology contain uncertainty due to the choice of climate models, RCP scenarios, bias correction methods and hydrological models. During wet days, more uncertainty is observed due to the use of different climate models, whereas during dry days, the use of different hydrological models has a greater effect on uncertainty. Inter-comparison of the impacts of different climate models reveals that the REMO climate model shows higher uncertainty in the prediction of precipitation and, consequently, in the prediction of future discharge and maximum probable flood.

Urban runoff (URO) process for MODFLOW 2005: simulation of sub-grid scale urban hydrologic processes in Broward County, FL

USGS Publications Warehouse

Decker, Jeremy D.; Hughes, J.D.

2013-01-01

Climate change and sea-level rise could cause substantial changes in urban runoff and flooding in low-lying coast landscapes. A major challenge for local government officials and decision makers is to translate the potential global effects of climate change into actionable and cost-effective adaptation and mitigation strategies at county and municipal scales. A MODFLOW process is used to represent sub-grid scale hydrology in urban settings to help address these issues. Coupled interception, surface water, depression, and unsaturated zone storage are represented. A two-dimensional diffusive wave approximation is used to represent overland flow. Three different options for representing infiltration and recharge are presented. Additional features include structure, barrier, and culvert flow between adjacent cells, specified stage boundaries, critical flow boundaries, source/sink surface-water terms, and the bi-directional runoff to MODFLOW Surface-Water Routing process. Some abilities of the Urban RunOff (URO) process are demonstrated with a synthetic problem using four land uses and varying cell coverages. Precipitation from a hypothetical storm was applied and cell by cell surface-water depth, groundwater level, infiltration rate, and groundwater recharge rate are shown. Results indicate the URO process has the ability to produce time-varying, water-content dependent infiltration and leakage, and successfully interacts with MODFLOW.

Influence of Climate Oscillations on Extreme Precipitation in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatia, N.; Singh, V. P.; Srivastav, R. K.

2016-12-01

Much research in the field of hydroclimatology is focusing on the impact of climate variability on hydrologic extremes. Recent studies show that the unique geographical location and the enormous areal extent, coupled with extensive variations in climate oscillations, have intensified the regional hydrologic cycle of Texas. The state-wide extreme precipitation events can actually be attributed to sea-surface pressure and temperature anomalies, such as Bermuda High and Jet Streams, which are further triggered by such climate oscillations. This study aims to quantify the impact of five major Atlantic and Pacific Ocean related climate oscillations: (i) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), (ii) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), (iii) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), (iv) Pacific North American Pattern (PNA), and (v) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), on extreme precipitation in Texas. Their respective effects will be determined for both climate divisions delineated by the National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and climate regions defined by the Köppen Climate Classification System. This study will adopt a weighted correlation approach to attain the robust correlation coefficients while addressing the regionally variable data outliers for extreme precipitation. Further, the variation of robust correlation coefficients across Texas is found to be related to the station elevation, historical average temperature, and total precipitation in the months of extremes. The research will shed light on the relationship between precipitation extremes and climate variability, thus aiding regional water boards in planning, designing, and managing the respective systems as per the future climate change.

Mapping of Temporal Surface-water Resources Availability and Agricultural Adaptability due to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity in a Hot Semi-arid Region of Maharashtra State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Inamdar, A. B.

2016-12-01

Major part of Godavari River Basin is intensely drought prone and climate vulnerable in the Western Maharashtra State, India. The economy of the state depends on the agronomic productivity of this region. So, it is necessary to regulate the effects of existing and upcoming hydro-meteorological advances in various strata. This study investigates and maps the surface water resources availability and vegetation, their decadal deviations with multi-temporal LANDSAT images; and finally quantifies the agricultural adaptations. This work involves the utilization of Remote Sensing and GIS with Hydrological modeling. First, climatic trend analysis is carried out with NCEP dataset. Then, multi-temporal LANDSAT images are classified to determine the decadal LULC changes and correlated to the community level hydrological demand. Finally, NDVI, NDWI and SWAT model analysis are accomplished to determine irrigated and non-irrigated cropping area for identifying the agricultural adaptations. The analysis shows that the mean value of annual and monsoon rainfall is significantly decreasing, whereas the mean value of annual and summer temperature is increasing significantly and the winter temperature is decreasing. The analysis of LANDSAT images shows that the surface water availability is highly dependent on climatic conditions. Barren-lands are most dynamic during the study period followed by, vegetation, and water bodies. The spatial extent of barren-lands is increased drastically during the climate vulnerable years replacing the vegetation and surface water bodies. Hence, the barren lands are constantly increasing and the vegetation cover is linearly decreasing, whereas the water extent is changing either way in a random fashion. There appears a positive correlation between surface water and vegetation occurrence; as they are fluctuating in a similar fashion in all the years. The vegetation cover is densely replenished around the dams and natural water bodies which serve as the water supply stations for the irrigation purposes. Moreover, there is a shift to non-irrigated and less water demanding crops, from more water demanding crops, which is a conspicuous adaptation. Hence, the study shows there are alteration in meteorological predictors, land cover, agricultural practices and surface water availability.

Eco-hydrological Modeling in the Framework of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, Simone; Ivanov, Valeriy Y.; Caporali, Enrica

2010-05-01

A blueprint methodology for studying climate change impacts, as inferred from climate models, on eco-hydrological dynamics at the plot and small catchment scale is presented. Input hydro-meteorological variables for hydrological and eco-hydrological models for present and future climates are reproduced using a stochastic downscaling technique and a weather generator, "AWE-GEN". The generated time series of meteorological variables for the present climate and an ensemble of possible future climates serve as input to a newly developed physically-based eco-hydrological model "Tethys-Chloris". An application of the proposed methodology is realized reproducing the current (1961-2000) and multiple future (2081-2100) climates for the location of Tucson (Arizona). A general reduction of precipitation and a significant increase of air temperature are inferred. The eco-hydrological model is successively applied to detect changes in water recharge and vegetation dynamics for a desert shrub ecosystem, typical of the semi-arid climate of south Arizona. Results for the future climate account for uncertainties in the downscaling and are produced in terms of probability density functions. A comparison of control and future scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the hydrological balance components, energy fluxes, and indices of vegetation productivity. An appreciable effect of climate change can be observed in metrics of vegetation performance. The negative impact on vegetation due to amplification of water stress in a warmer and dryer climate is offset by a positive effect of carbon dioxide augment. This implies a positive shift in plant capabilities to exploit water. Consequently, the plant water use efficiency and rain use efficiency are expected to increase. Interesting differences in the long-term vegetation productivity are also observed for the ensemble of future climates. The reduction of precipitation and the substantial maintenance of vegetation cover ultimately leads to the depletion of soil moisture and recharge to deeper layers. Such an outcome can affect the long-tem water availability in semi-arid systems and expose plants to more severe and frequent periods of stress.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

2001-01-01

This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

Climate Variability and Its Impact on Forest Hydrology on South Carolina Coastal Plain, USA

Treesearch

Zhaohua Dai; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Carl Trettin; Changsheng Li; Harbin Li

2011-01-01

Understanding the changes in hydrology of coastal forested wetlands induced by climate change is fundamental for developing strategies to sustain their functions and services. This study examined 60 years of climatic observations and 30 years of hydrological data, collected at the Santee Experimental Forest (SEF) in coastal South Carolina. We also applied a physically-...

Co-evolution of Climate, Soil, and Vegetation and their interplay with Hydrological Partitioning at the Catchment Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zapata-Rios, X.; Brooks, P. D.; Troch, P. A. A.; McIntosh, J. C.

2014-12-01

Landscape, climate, and vegetation interactions play a fundamental role in controlling the distribution of available water in hillslopes and catchments. In mid-latitudes, terrain aspect can regulate surface and subsurface hydrological processes, which not only affect the partitioning of energy and precipitation on short time scales, but also soil development, vegetation characteristics on long time scales. In Redondo Peak in northern New Mexico, a volcanic resurgent dome, first order streams drain different slopes around the mountain. In this setting, we study three adjacent first order catchments that share similar physical characteristics, but drain different aspects, allowing for an empirical study of how topographically controlled microclimate and soil influence the integrated hydrological and vegetation response. From 2008 to 2012, catchments were compared for the way they partition precipitation and how vegetation responds to variable water fluxes. Meteorological variables were monitored in 5 stations around Redondo Peak and surface runoff was monitored at the catchments' outlets. Hydrological partitioning at the catchment scale was estimated with the Horton Index, defined as the ratio between vaporization and wetting and it represents a measure of catchment-scale vegetation water use. Vegetation response was estimated using remotely sensed vegetation greenness (NDVI) derived from MODIS every 16 days with a spatial resolution of 250 m. Results show that the predominantly north facing catchment has the largest and least variable baseflow and discharge, consistent with greater mineral weathering fluxes and longer water transit times. In addition, vaporization, wetting and Horton Index, as well as NDVI, are smaller in the north facing catchment compared to the south east facing catchments. The predominant terrain aspect controls soil development, which affects the partitioning of precipitation and vegetation response at the catchment scale. These results also demonstrate how landscape evolution (e.g. depth of weathering profile) can affect various hydrologic processes, including streamflow response to precipitation and water residence time. In turn these processes are first-order controls on the sensitivity of the landscape to land use and climate change.

Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has une...

Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, Bart; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Liang, Xu; Wetzel, Suzanne W.; Wood, Eric F.

1997-04-01

A grid network version of the two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) macroscale hydrologic model is described. VIC-2L is a hydrologically based soil- vegetation-atmosphere transfer scheme designed to represent the land surface in numerical weather prediction and climate models. The grid network scheme allows streamflow to be predicted for large continental rivers. Off-line (observed and estimated surface meteorological and radiative forcings) applications of the model to the Columbia River (1° latitude-longitude spatial resolution) and Delaware River (0.5° resolution) are described. The model performed quite well in both applications, reproducing the seasonal hydrograph and annual flow volumes to within a few percent. Difficulties in reproducing observed streamflow in the arid portion of the Snake River basin are attributed to groundwater-surface water interactions, which are not modeled by VIC-2L.

The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2013-12-01

Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Future changes in hydro-climatic extremes in the Upper Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra River basins

PubMed Central

Lutz, Arthur F.; Nepal, Santosh; Khanal, Sonu; Pradhananga, Saurav; Shrestha, Arun B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

2017-01-01

Future hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, may pose serious threats for the livelihoods in the upstream domains of the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra. For this reason, the impacts of climate change on future hydrological extremes is investigated in these river basins. We use a fully-distributed cryospheric-hydrological model to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes and force the model with an ensemble of 8 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that are selected from the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model is calibrated on observed daily discharge and geodetic mass balances. The climate forcing and the outputs of the hydrological model are used to evaluate future changes in climatic extremes, and hydrological extremes by focusing on high and low flows. The outcomes show an increase in the magnitude of climatic means and extremes towards the end of the 21st century where climatic extremes tend to increase stronger than climatic means. Future mean discharge and high flow conditions will very likely increase. These increases might mainly be the result of increasing precipitation extremes. To some extent temperature extremes might also contribute to increasing discharge extremes, although this is highly dependent on magnitude of change in temperature extremes. Low flow conditions may occur less frequently, although the uncertainties in low flow projections can be high. The results of this study may contribute to improved understanding on the implications of climate change for the occurrence of future hydrological extremes in the Hindu Kush–Himalayan region. PMID:29287098

Understanding the Hydrologic Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed to Forest Management and Climate Change in South Carolina, U.S.A.

Treesearch

J. Lu; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; S. V. Harder; Steve G. McNulty

2006-01-01

The hydrologic processes in wetland ecosystems are not well understood. There are also great concerns and uncertainties about the hydrologic response of wetlands to forest management and climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a hydrologic model to better understand the hydrologic processes of a low relief coastal forested watershed and its responses to...

Hydroecological impacts of climate change modelled for a lowland UK wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, Andrew; Acreman, Mike; Sorensen, James; Thompson, Julian

2015-04-01

Conservation management of wetlands often rests on modifying hydrological functions to establish or maintain desired flora and fauna. Hence the ability to predict the impacts of climate change is highly beneficial. Here, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE was used to simulate hydrology for the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, UK. This comprises a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland protected for conservation, where the degree of variability in the peat, gravel and chalk geology has clouded hydrological understanding. Notably, a weathered layer on the chalk aquifer surface seals it from overlying deposits, yet is highly spatially heterogeneous. Long-term monitoring yielded observations of groundwater and surface water levels for model calibration and validation. Simulated results were consistent with observed data and reproduced the effects of seasonal fluctuations and in-channel macrophyte growth. The adjacent river and subsidiary channel were found to act as head boundaries, exerting a general control on water levels across the site. Discrete areas of groundwater upwellings caused raised water levels at distinct locations within the wetland. These were concurrent to regions where the weathered chalk layer is absent. To assess impacts of climate change, outputs from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of global climate models for the 2080s are used to obtain monthly percentage changes in climate variables. Changes in groundwater levels were taken from a regional model of the Chalk aquifer. Values of precipitation and evapotranspiration were seen to increase, whilst groundwater levels decreased, resulting in the greater dominance of precipitation. The discrete areas of groundwater upwelling were seen to diminish or disappear. Simulated water levels were linked to specific requirements of wetland plants using water table depth zone diagrams. Increasing depth of winter and summer groundwater levels leads to a loss of Glyceria maxima and Phragmites australis, principal habitat for the endangered Vertigo moulinsiana. Further, the reduced influx of base-rich groundwater and increased dominance of high pH rain-fed waters alters the acidity of the soil. This leads to changes in species composition, with potential reductions in Carex paniculata, Caltha palustris and Typha latifolia.

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this submission focuses on the production of climatic scenarios for application in hydrology, the submission « The (cQ)2 project: assessing watershed scale hydrological changes for the province of Québec at the 2050 horizon, a collaborative framework » by Catherine Guay describes how Hydro-Québec and CEHQ put the data into use.

Characterizing Flow and Suspended Sediment Trends in the Sacramento River Basin, CA Using Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, M. A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.; Wright, S. A.; Minear, J. T.

2014-12-01

A watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin, CA was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) for fifty years (1958-2008) using the Hydrological Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF). To compensate for the large model domain and sparse data, rigorous meteorological development and characterization of hydraulic geometry were employed to spatially distribute climate and hydrologic processes in unmeasured locations. Parameterization techniques sought to include known spatial information for tributaries such as soil information and slope, and then parameters were scaled up or down during calibration to retain the spatial characteristics of the land surface in un-gaged areas. Accuracy was assessed by comparing model calibration to measured streamflow. Calibration and validation of the Sacramento River ranged from "good" to "very good" performance based upon a "goodness-of-fit" statistical guideline. Model calibration to measured sediment loads were underestimated on average by 39% for the Sacramento River, and model calibration to suspended sediment concentrations were underestimated on average by 22% for the Sacramento River. Sediment loads showed a slight decreasing trend from 1958-2008 and was significant (p < 0.0025) in the lower 50% of stream flows. Hypothetical climate change scenarios were developed using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). Several wet and dry scenarios coupled with temperature increases were imposed on the historical base conditions to evaluate sensitivity of streamflow and sediment on potential changes in climate. Wet scenarios showed an increase of 9.7 - 17.5% in streamflow, a 7.6 - 17.5% increase in runoff, and a 30 - 93% increase in sediment loads. The dry scenarios showed a roughly 5% decrease in flow and runoff, and a 16 - 18% decrease in sediment loads. The base hydrology was most sensitive to a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius and an increase in storm intensity and frequency. The complete calibrated HSPF model will use future climate scenarios to make projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the SFBD from 2000-2100.

A Cloud Greenhouse Effect on Mars: Significant Climate Change in the Recent Past

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Schaeffer, James R.; Montmessin, Frank; Phillips, R J.

2012-01-01

The large variations in Mars orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change on the Red planet. The recent discovery of buried CO2 ice at the South Pole adds another dimension to climate change studies. In this paper we present results from the Ames GCM that show within the past million years it is possible that clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold clouds form, reduce the outgoing longwave radiation, and drive up surface temperatures to maintain global energy balance.

Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teegavarapu, R. S.

2008-05-01

The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.

Effects of local climate and hydrological conditions on the thermal regime of a reservoir at Tropic of Cancer, in southern China.

PubMed

Wang, Sheng; Qian, Xin; Han, Bo-Ping; Luo, Lian-Cong; Hamilton, David P

2012-05-15

Thermal regime is strongly associated with hydrodynamics in water, and it plays an important role in the dynamics of water quality and ecosystem succession of stratified reservoirs. Changes in both climate and hydrological conditions can modify thermal regimes. Liuxihe Reservoir (23°45'50″N; 113°46'52″E) is a large, stratified and deep reservoir in Guangdong Province, located at the Tropic of Cancer of southern China. The reservoir is a warm monomictic water body with a long period of summer stratification and a short period of mixing in winter. The vertical distribution of suspended particulate material and nutrients are influenced strongly by the thermal structure and the associated flow fields. The hypolimnion becomes anoxic in the stratified period, increasing the release of nutrients from the bottom sediments. Fifty-one years of climate and reservoir operational observations are used here to show the marked changes in local climate and reservoir operational schemes. The data show increasing air temperature and more violent oscillations in inflow volumes in the last decade, while the inter-annual water level fluctuations tend to be more moderate. To quantify the effects of changes in climate and hydrological conditions on thermal structure, we used a numerical simulation model to create scenarios incorporating different air temperatures, inflow volumes, and water levels. The simulations indicate that water column stability, the duration of the mixing period, and surface and outflow temperatures are influenced by both natural factors and by anthropogenic factors such as climate change and reservoir operation schemes. Under continuous warming and more stable storage in recent years, the simulations indicate greater water column stability and increased duration of stratification, while irregular large discharge events may reduce stability and lead to early mixing in autumn. Our results strongly suggest that more attention should be focused on water quality in years of extreme climate variation and hydrological conditions, and selective withdrawal of deep water may provide an efficient means to reduce internal loading in warm years. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrological Modelling the Middle Magdalena Valley (Colombia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas, M. C.; Duque, N.; Arboleda, P.; Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Donado-Garzon, L. D.

2017-12-01

Hydrological distributed modeling is key point for a comprehensive assessment of the feedback between the dynamics of the hydrological cycle, climate conditions and land use. Such modeling results are markedly relevant in the fields of water resources management, natural hazards and oil and gas industry. Here, we employ TopModel (TOPography based hydrological MODEL) for the hydrological modeling of an area in the Middle Magdalena Valley (MMV), a tropical basin located in Colombia. This study is located over the intertropical convergence zone and is characterized by special meteorological conditions, with fast water fluxes over the year. It has been subject to significant land use changes, as a result of intense economical activities, i.e., and agriculture, energy and oil & gas production. The model employees a record of 12 years of daily precipitation and evapotranspiration data as inputs. Streamflow data monitored across the same time frame are used for model calibration. The latter is performed by considering data from 2000 to 2008. Model validation then relies on observations from 2009 to 2012. The robustness of our analyses is based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (values of this metric being 0.62 and 0.53, respectively for model calibration and validation). Our results reveal high water storage capacity in the soil, and a marked subsurface runoff, consistent with the characteristics of the soil types in the regions. A significant influence on runoff response of the basin to topographical factors represented in the model is evidenced. Our calibrated model provides relevant indications about recharge in the region, which is important to quantify the interaction between surface water and groundwater, specially during the dry season, which is more relevant in climate-change and climate-variability scenarios.

Hydrological Footprints of Urban Developments in the Lake Simcoe Watershed, Canada: A Combined Paired-Catchment and Change Detection Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, S. K.; Futter, M. N.; Buttle, J. M.; Dillon, P.

2014-12-01

Urban sprawl and regional climate variability are major stresses on surface water resources in many places. The Lake Simcoe watershed (LSW) Ontario, Canada, is no exception. The LSW is predominantly agricultural but is experiencing rapid population growth due to its proximity to the greater Toronto area. This has led to extensive land use changes which have impacted its water resources and altered runoff patterns in some rivers draining to the lake. Here, we use a paired-catchment approach, hydrological change detection modelling and remote sensing analysis of satellite images to evaluate the impacts of land use change on the hydrology of the LSW (1994 to 2008). Results show that urbanization increased up to 16% in Lovers Creek, the most-urban impacted catchment. Annual runoff from Lovers Creek increased from 239 to 442 mm/yr in contrast to the reference catchment (Black River at Washago) where runoff was relatively stable with an annual mean of 474 mm/yr. Increased annual runoff from Lovers Creek was not accompanied by an increase in annual precipitation. Discriminant function analysis suggests that early (1992-1997; pre-major development) and late (2004-2009; fully urbanized) periods for Lovers Creek separated mainly based on model parameter sets related to runoff flashiness and evapotranspiration. As a result, parameterization in either period cannot be used interchangeably to produce credible runoff simulations in Lovers Creek due to greater scatter between the parameters in canonical space. Separation of early and late period parameter sets for the reference catchment was based on climate and snowmelt related processes. This suggests that regional climatic variability could be influencing hydrologic change in the reference catchment whereas urbanization amplified the regional natural hydrologic changes in urbanizing catchments of the LSW.

Can Earth System Model Provide Reasonable Natural Runoff Estimates to Support Water Management Studies?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kao, S. C.; Shi, X.; Kumar, J.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Mao, J.; Thornton, P. E.

2017-12-01

With the concern of changing hydrologic regime, there is a crucial need to better understand how water availability may change and influence water management decisions in the projected future climate conditions. Despite that surface hydrology has long been simulated by land model within the Earth System modeling (ESM) framework, given the coarser horizontal resolution and lack of engineering-level calibration, raw runoff from ESM is generally discarded by water resource managers when conducting hydro-climate impact assessments. To identify a likely path to improve the credibility of ESM-simulated natural runoff, we conducted regional model simulation using the land component (ALM) of the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) version 1 focusing on the conterminous United States (CONUS). Two very different forcing data sets, including (1) the conventional 0.5° CRUNCEP (v5, 1901-2013) and (2) the 1-km Daymet (v3, 1980-2013) aggregated to 0.5°, were used to conduct 20th century transient simulation with satellite phenology. Additional meteorologic and hydrologic observations, including PRISM precipitation and U.S. Geological Survey WaterWatch runoff, were used for model evaluation. For various CONUS hydrologic regions (such as Pacific Northwest), we found that Daymet can significantly improve the reasonableness of simulated ALM runoff even without intensive calibration. The large dry bias of CRUNCEP precipitation (evaluated by PRISM) in multiple CONUS hydrologic regions is believed to be the main reason causing runoff underestimation. The results suggest that when driving with skillful precipitation estimates, ESM has the ability to produce reasonable natural runoff estimates to support further water management studies. Nevertheless, model calibration will be required for regions (such as Upper Colorado) where ill performance is showed for multiple different forcings.

Western Tropical Atlantic Hydrologic change during the last 130,000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrath, S. M.; Lavoie, N.; Oppo, D.

2016-12-01

Abrupt climate changes in the North Atlantic during the last 130,000 years are associated with hydrologic changes in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean. Previous studies on marine sediment cores from between 4°S and the equator have documented pulses of terrigenous sediment recording increased precipitation and weathering on the Brazilian Nordeste associated with Heinrich events. We worked on cores KNR197-3-11CDH (7°40'N, 53°49'W, water depth 550 m) and KNR 197-3-46CDH (7°50.1621'N, 53°39.8051'W, 947m water depth) located farther north along the South American continental slope, where sediment derives from the Amazon river basin and is transported by the North Brazilian Current. Preliminary stratigraphy based on magnetic susceptibility shows a possible correlation with the Greenland ice core δ18O stratigraphy. We use sediment elemental composition, determined by x-ray fluorescence (XRF) to evaluate variations in terrigenous sediment runoff and δ18O of the planktonic foraminifers Globierinoides ruber to evaluate variations in western tropical North Atlantic surface hydrography across North Atlantic abrupt climate events. Similarities and differences among our records and the records from the more southerly cores will help understand the mechanisms of hydrologic changes in the regions on abrupt climate time scales.

Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

2016-04-01

Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Global water cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Christy, John R.; Goodman, Steven J.; Miller, Tim L.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Lapenta, Bill; Wang, Shouping

1991-01-01

The primary objective is to determine the scope and interactions of the global water cycle with all components of the Earth system and to understand how it stimulates and regulates changes on both global and regional scales. The following subject areas are covered: (1) water vapor variability; (2) multi-phase water analysis; (3) diabatic heating; (4) MSU (Microwave Sounding Unit) temperature analysis; (5) Optimal precipitation and streamflow analysis; (6) CCM (Community Climate Model) hydrological cycle; (7) CCM1 climate sensitivity to lower boundary forcing; and (8) mesoscale modeling of atmosphere/surface interaction.

Hydrological simulations in the Rhine basin.

PubMed

van den Hurk, B; Beersma, J; Lenderink, G

2005-01-01

Simulations with regional climate models (RCMs), carried out for the Rhine basin, have been analyzed in the context of implications of the possible future discharge of the Rhine river. In a first analysis, the runoff generated by the RCMs is compared to observations, in order to detect the way the RCMs treat anomalies in precipitation in their land surface component. A second analysis is devoted to the frequency distribution of area averaged precipitation, and the impact of selection of various driving global climate models.

Simulation of groundwater and surface-water resources of the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, Sonoma County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolfenden, Linda R.; Nishikawa, Tracy

2014-01-01

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its future availability; local groundwater resources; and ongoing and expanding recycled water and water from other conservation programs. To address this challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, the cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, the town of Windsor, the California American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma, undertook development of a fully coupled groundwater and surface-water model to better understand and to help manage the hydrologic resources in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, referred to as the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model; (2) present results from simulation of the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model, including water budgets, recharge distributions, streamflow, and the effect of pumping on water-budget components; and (3) present the results from using the model to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change and variability without pumpage for water years 2011-99 and with projected pumpage for water years 2011-40.

Regulating urban surface runoff through nature-based solutions - An assessment at the micro-scale.

PubMed

Zölch, Teresa; Henze, Lisa; Keilholz, Patrick; Pauleit, Stephan

2017-08-01

Urban development leads to changes of surface cover that disrupt the hydrological cycle in cities. In particular, impermeable surfaces and the removal of vegetation reduce the ability to intercept, store and infiltrate rainwater. Consequently, the volume of stormwater runoff and the risk of local flooding rises. This is further amplified by the anticipated effects of climate change leading to an increased frequency and intensity of heavy rain events. Hence, urban adaptation strategies are required to mitigate those impacts. A nature-based solution, more and more promoted in politics and academia, is urban green infrastructure as it contributes to the resilience of urban ecosystems by providing services to maintain or restore hydrological functions. However, this poses a challenge to urban planners in deciding upon effective adaptation measures as they often lack information on the performance of green infrastructure to moderate surface runoff. It remains unclear what type of green infrastructure (e.g. trees, green roofs), offers the highest potential to reduce discharge volumes and to what extent. Against this background, this study provides an approach to gather quantitative evidence on green infrastructure's regulation potential. We use a micro-scale scenario modelling approach of different variations of green cover under current and future climatic conditions. The scenarios are modelled with MIKE SHE, an integrated hydrological simulation tool, and applied to a high density residential area of perimeter blocks in Munich, Germany. The results reveal that both trees and green roofs increase water storage capacities and hence reduce surface runoff, although the main contribution of trees lies in increasing interception and evapotranspiration, whereas green roofs allow for more retention through water storage in their substrate. With increasing precipitation intensities as projected under climate change their regulating potential decreases due to limited water storage capacities. The performance of both types stays limited to a maximum reduction of 2.4% compared to the baseline scenario, unless the coverage of vegetation and permeable surfaces is significantly increased as a 14.8% reduction is achieved by greening all roof surfaces. We conclude that the study provides empirical support for the effectiveness of urban green infrastructure as nature-based solution to stormwater regulation and assists planners and operators of sewage systems in selecting the most effective measures for implementation and estimation of their effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces: Explicit subgrid method employing the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seth, Anji; Giorgi, Filippo; Dickinson, Robert E.

1994-01-01

A vectorized version of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (VBATS) is used to study moisture, energy, and momentum fluxes from heterogeneous land surfaces st the scale of an atmospheric model (AM) grid cells. To incorporate subgrid scale inhomogeneity, VBATS includes two important features: (1) characterization of the land surface (vegetation and soil parameters) at N subgrid points within an AM grid cell and (2) explicit distribution of climate forcing (precipitation, clouds, etc.) over the subgrid. In this study, VBATS is used in stand-alone mode to simulate a single AM grid cell and to evaluate the effects of subgrid scale vegetation and climate specification on the surface fluxes and hydrology. It is found that the partitioning of energy can be affected by up to 30%, runoff by 50%, and surface stress in excess of 60%. Distributing climate forcing over the AM grid cell increases the Bowen ratio, as a result of enhanced sensible heat flux and reduced latent heat flux. The combined effect of heterogeneous vegetation and distribution of climate is found to be dependent on the dominat vegetation class in the AM grid cell. Development of this method is part of a larger program to explore the importance of subgrid scale processes in regional and global climate simulations.

Uncertainty of a hydrological climate change impact assessment - Is it really all about climate uncertainty?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honti, Mark; Reichert, Peter; Scheidegger, Andreas; Stamm, Christian

2013-04-01

Climate change impact assessments have become more and more popular in hydrology since the middle 1980's with another boost after the publication of the IPCC AR4 report. During hundreds of impact studies a quasi-standard methodology emerged, which is mainly shaped by the growing public demand for predicting how water resources management or flood protection should change in the close future. The ``standard'' workflow considers future climate under a specific IPCC emission scenario simulated by global circulation models (GCMs), possibly downscaled by a regional climate model (RCM) and/or a stochastic weather generator. The output from the climate models is typically corrected for bias before feeding it into a calibrated hydrological model, which is run on the past and future meteorological data to analyse the impacts of climate change on the hydrological indicators of interest. The impact predictions are as uncertain as any forecast that tries to describe the behaviour of an extremely complex system decades into the future. Future climate predictions are uncertain due to the scenario uncertainty and the GCM model uncertainty that is obvious on finer resolution than continental scale. Like in any hierarchical model system, uncertainty propagates through the descendant components. Downscaling increases uncertainty with the deficiencies of RCMs and/or weather generators. Bias correction adds a strong deterministic shift to the input data. Finally the predictive uncertainty of the hydrological model ends the cascade that leads to the total uncertainty of the hydrological impact assessment. There is an emerging consensus between many studies on the relative importance of the different uncertainty sources. The prevailing perception is that GCM uncertainty dominates hydrological impact studies. There are only few studies, which found that the predictive uncertainty of hydrological models can be in the same range or even larger than climatic uncertainty. We carried out a climate change impact assessment and estimated the relative importance of the uncertainty sources. The study was performed on 2 small catchments in the Swiss Plateau with a lumped conceptual rainfall runoff model. In the climatic part we applied the standard ensemble approach to quantify uncertainty but in hydrology we used formal Bayesian uncertainty assessment method with 2 different likelihood functions. One was a time-series error model that was able to deal with the complicated statistical properties of hydrological model residuals. The second was a likelihood function for the flow quantiles directly. Due to the better data coverage and smaller hydrological complexity in one of our test catchments we had better performance from the hydrological model and thus could observe that the relative importance of different uncertainty sources varied between sites, boundary conditions and flow indicators. The uncertainty of future climate was important, but not dominant. The deficiencies of the hydrological model were on the same scale, especially for the sites and flow components where model performance for the past observations was further from optimal (Nash-Sutcliffe index = 0.5 - 0.7). The overall uncertainty of predictions was well beyond the expected change signal even for the best performing site and flow indicator.

An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velázquez, J. A.; Schmid, J.; Ricard, S.; Muerth, M. J.; Gauvin St-Denis, B.; Minville, M.; Chaumont, D.; Caya, D.; Ludwig, R.; Turcotte, R.

2012-06-01

Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e. lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by a given number of GCMs' members over a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) periods. The results show that the choice of the hydrological model does strongly affect the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model. Therefore, the computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) give a significant level of trust for high and overall mean flows.

Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions: a study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Hammond, Michael; Schuhmacher, Marta

2012-12-01

River Francolí is a small river in Catalonia (northeastern Spain) with an average annual low flow (~2 m(3)/s). The purpose of the River Francolí watershed assessments is to support and inform region-wide planning efforts from the perspective of water protection, climate change and water allocation. In this study, a hydrological model of the Francolí River watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, water resource assessment, and ultimately, water allocation purposes using hydrological data from 2002 to 2006 inclusive. The modeling package selected for this application is DHI's MIKE BASIN. This model is a strategic scale water resource management simulation model, which includes modeling of both land surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Topographic, land use, hydrological, rainfall, and meteorological data were used to develop the model segmentation and input. Due to the unavailability of required catchment runoff data, the NAM rainfall-runoff model was used to calculate runoff of all the sub-watersheds. The results reveal a potential pressure on the availability of groundwater and surface water in the lower part of River Francolí as was expected by the IPCC for Mediterranean river basins. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area and data scarcity, a comprehensive physically based method was required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined ArcGIS/MIKE BASIN models appear as a useful tool to assess the hydrological cycle and to better understand water allocation to different sectors in the Francolí River watershed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees.

PubMed

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-05-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirsAnthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to treesEcohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities.

Floodplain ecohydrology: Climatic, anthropogenic, and local physical controls on partitioning of water sources to riparian trees

PubMed Central

Singer, Michael Bliss; Sargeant, Christopher I; Piégay, Hervé; Riquier, Jérémie; Wilson, Rob J S; Evans, Cristina M

2014-01-01

Seasonal and annual partitioning of water within river floodplains has important implications for ecohydrologic links between the water cycle and tree growth. Climatic and hydrologic shifts alter water distribution between floodplain storage reservoirs (e.g., vadose, phreatic), affecting water availability to tree roots. Water partitioning is also dependent on the physical conditions that control tree rooting depth (e.g., gravel layers that impede root growth), the sources of contributing water, the rate of water drainage, and water residence times within particular storage reservoirs. We employ instrumental climate records alongside oxygen isotopes within tree rings and regional source waters, as well as topographic data and soil depth measurements, to infer the water sources used over several decades by two co-occurring tree species within a riparian floodplain along the Rhône River in France. We find that water partitioning to riparian trees is influenced by annual (wet versus dry years) and seasonal (spring snowmelt versus spring rainfall) fluctuations in climate. This influence depends strongly on local (tree level) conditions including floodplain surface elevation and subsurface gravel layer elevation. The latter represents the upper limit of the phreatic zone and therefore controls access to shallow groundwater. The difference between them, the thickness of the vadose zone, controls total soil moisture retention capacity. These factors thus modulate the climatic influence on tree ring isotopes. Additionally, we identified growth signatures and tree ring isotope changes associated with recent restoration of minimum streamflows in the Rhône, which made new phreatic water sources available to some trees in otherwise dry years. Key Points Water shifts due to climatic fluctuations between floodplain storage reservoirs Anthropogenic changes to hydrology directly impact water available to trees Ecohydrologic approaches to integration of hydrology afford new possibilities PMID:25506099

Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

2015-10-01

Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Comparing Planning Hydrologic Ensembles associated with Paleoclimate, Projected Climate, and blended Climate Information Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Prairie, J.; Pruitt, T.; Rajagopalan, B.; Woodhouse, C.

2008-12-01

Water resources adaptation planning under climate change involves making assumptions about probabilistic water supply conditions, which are linked to a given climate context (e.g., instrument records, paleoclimate indicators, projected climate data, or blend of these). Methods have been demonstrated to associate water supply assumptions with any of these climate information types. Additionally, demonstrations have been offered that represent these information types in a scenario-rich (ensemble) planning framework, either via ensembles (e.g., survey of many climate projections) or stochastic modeling (e.g., based on instrument records or paleoclimate indicators). If the planning goal involves using a hydrologic ensemble that jointly reflects paleoclimate (e.g., lower- frequency variations) and projected climate information (e.g., monthly to annual trends), methods are required to guide how these information types might be translated into water supply assumptions. However, even if such a method exists, there is lack of understanding on how such a hydrologic ensemble might differ from ensembles developed relative to paleoclimate or projected climate information alone. This research explores two questions: (1) how might paleoclimate and projected climate information be blended into an planning hydrologic ensemble, and (2) how does a planning hydrologic ensemble differ when associated with the individual climate information types (i.e. instrumental records, paleoclimate, projected climate, or blend of the latter two). Case study basins include the Gunnison River Basin in Colorado and the Missouri River Basin above Toston in Montana. Presentation will highlight ensemble development methods by information type, and comparison of ensemble results.

Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

2013-12-01

This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi; Voisin, Nathalie; Zhang, Xuesong; Asrar, Ghassem R.; Leung, L. Ruby

2016-11-01

Despite the importance of surface water to people and ecosystems, few studies have explored detectable changes in surface water supply in a changing climate, given its large natural variability. Here we analyze runoff projections from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model driven by 97 downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Our results show that more than 40% of the CONUS land area will experience significant changes in the probability distribution functions (i.e. PDFs) of summer and winter runoff by the end of the 21st century, which may pose great challenges to future surface water supply. Sub-basin mean runoff PDFs are projected to change significantly after 2040s depending on the emission scenarios, with earliest occurrence in the Pacific Northwest and northern California regions. When examining the response as a function of changes in the global mean temperature (ΔGMT), a linear relationship is revealed at the 95% confidence level. Generally, 1 °C increase of GMT leads to 11% and 17% more lands experiencing changes in summer and winter runoff PDFs, respectively. Such changes in land fraction scale with ΔGMT at the country scale independent of emission scenarios, but the same relationship does not necessarily hold at sub-basin scales, due to the larger role of atmospheric circulation changes and their uncertainties on regional precipitation. Further analyses show that the emergence of significant changes in sub-basin runoff PDFs is indicative of the emergence of new hydrology regimes and it is dominated by the changes in variability rather than shift in the mean, regardless of the emission scenarios.

Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, FrançOis P.; Poulin, Annie; Leconte, Robert

2011-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (GGES) are generally considered to be the two major sources of uncertainty in quantifying the climate change impacts on hydrology. Other sources of uncertainty have been given less attention. This study considers overall uncertainty by combining results from an ensemble of two GGES, six GCMs, five GCM initial conditions, four downscaling techniques, three hydrological model structures, and 10 sets of hydrological model parameters. Each climate projection is equally weighted to predict the hydrology on a Canadian watershed for the 2081-2100 horizon. The results show that the choice of GCM is consistently a major contributor to uncertainty. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as the choice of a downscaling method and the GCM initial conditions, also have a comparable or even larger uncertainty for some hydrological variables. Uncertainties linked to GGES and the hydrological model structure are somewhat less than those related to GCMs and downscaling techniques. Uncertainty due to the hydrological model parameter selection has the least important contribution among all the variables considered. Overall, this research underlines the importance of adequately covering all sources of uncertainty. A failure to do so may result in moderately to severely biased climate change impact studies. Results further indicate that the major contributors to uncertainty vary depending on the hydrological variables selected, and that the methodology presented in this paper is successful at identifying the key sources of uncertainty to consider for a climate change impact study.

The hydrological cycle in the high Pamir Mountains: how temperature and seasonal precipitation distribution influence stream flow in the Gunt catchment, Tajikistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, E.; Knoche, M.; Gloaguen, R.; Andermann, C.; Krause, P.

2014-12-01

Complex climatic interactions control hydrological processes in high mountains that in their turn regulate the erosive forces shaping the relief. To unravel the hydrological cycle of a glaciated watershed (Gunt River) considered representative of the Pamirs' hydrologic regime we developed a remote sensing-based approach. At the boundary between two distinct climatic zones dominated by Westerlies and Indian summer monsoon, the Pamir is poorly instrumented and only a few in situ meteorological and hydrological data are available. We adapted a suitable conceptual distributed hydrological model (J2000g). Interpolations of the few available in situ data are inadequate due to strong, relief induced, spatial heterogeneities. Instead we use raster data, preferably from remote sensing sources depending on availability and validation. We evaluate remote sensing-based precipitation and temperature products. MODIS MOD11 surface temperatures show good agreement with in situ data, perform better than other products and represent a good proxy for air temperatures. For precipitation we tested remote sensing products as well as the HAR10 climate model data and the interpolation-based APHRODITE dataset. All products show substantial differences both in intensity and seasonal distribution with in-situ data. Despite low resolutions, the datasets are able to sustain high model efficiencies (NSE ≥0.85). In contrast to neighbouring regions in the Himalayas or the Hindukush, discharge is dominantly the product of snow and glacier melt and thus temperature is the essential controlling factor. 80% of annual precipitation is provided as snow in winter and spring contrasting peak discharges during summer. Hence, precipitation and discharge are negatively correlated and display complex hysteresis effects that allow to infer the effect of inter-annual climatic variability on river flow. We infer the existence of two subsurface reservoirs. The groundwater reservoir (providing 40% of annual discharge) recharges in spring and summer and releases slowly during fall and winter. A not fully constrained shallow reservoir with very rapid retention times buffers melt waters during spring and summer. This study highlights the importance of a better understanding of the hydrologic cycle to constrain natural hazards such as floods and landslides as well as water availability in the downstream areas. The negative glacier mass balance (-0.6 m w.e. yr-1) indicates glacier retreat, that will effect the currently 30% contribution of glacier melt to stream flow.

Effects of different regional climate model resolution and forcing scales on projected hydrologic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo A.; Mizukami, Naoki; Ikeda, Kyoko; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2016-10-01

We examine the effects of regional climate model (RCM) horizontal resolution and forcing scaling (i.e., spatial aggregation of meteorological datasets) on the portrayal of climate change impacts. Specifically, we assess how the above decisions affect: (i) historical simulation of signature measures of hydrologic behavior, and (ii) projected changes in terms of annual water balance and hydrologic signature measures. To this end, we conduct our study in three catchments located in the headwaters of the Colorado River basin. Meteorological forcings for current and a future climate projection are obtained at three spatial resolutions (4-, 12- and 36-km) from dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, and hydrologic changes are computed using four different hydrologic model structures. These projected changes are compared to those obtained from running hydrologic simulations with current and future 4-km WRF climate outputs re-scaled to 12- and 36-km. The results show that the horizontal resolution of WRF simulations heavily affects basin-averaged precipitation amounts, propagating into large differences in simulated signature measures across model structures. The implications of re-scaled forcing datasets on historical performance were primarily observed on simulated runoff seasonality. We also found that the effects of WRF grid resolution on projected changes in mean annual runoff and evapotranspiration may be larger than the effects of hydrologic model choice, which surpasses the effects from re-scaled forcings. Scaling effects on projected variations in hydrologic signature measures were found to be generally smaller than those coming from WRF resolution; however, forcing aggregation in many cases reversed the direction of projected changes in hydrologic behavior.

Evaluation of climate change effects on the hydrology of a medium-sized Mediterranean basin affected by data sparseness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piras, Monica; Mascaro, Giuseppe; Deidda, Roberto; Vivoni, Enrique R.

2014-05-01

Many studies based on global and regional climate models agree on the prediction that the Mediterranean area will be most likely affected by climate changes with consequent reduced water availability and intensified hydrologic extremes. This study evaluates the effects of climate changes on the hydrologic response of a medium-sized Mediterranean basin through downscaling techniques and hydrologic simulations. The watershed is the Rio Mannu at Monastir basin (473 km2), located in an agricultural area of southern Sardinia, Italy, which has suffered drought issues in the last decades. It is one of the seven study cases of a multidisciplinary European research project, CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins). In such basins, characterized by strong climate variability and by a complex hydrologic response, process based distributed hydrologic models, DHMs, combined with regional climate models, RCMs, and downscaling techniques can help in the evaluation of the local impacts of climate change on water resources decreasing the uncertainty. Since the Rio Mannu basin is affected by data sparseness (meteorological and streamflow data are collected in non overlapping time periods and at diverse time resolutions), two statistical downscaling strategies for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration have been designed which allow to obtain the high-resolution input data required for the calibration of our hydrologic model, the TIN-based Real time Integrated Basin Simulator (tRIBS). We show how the DHM has been calibrated and validated with reasonable accuracy using the disaggregation tools. Next, the same downscaling algorithms have been used to fill the resolution discrepancy between RCMs and the hydrologic model. The outputs of four RCMs, selected as the best performing and bias corrected within the CLIMB project, have been downscaled and used to force the tRIBS during a reference (1971-2000) and a future (2041-2070) period. Several hydro-climatic indicators have been computed based on the time series and spatial maps produced by the DHM to assess the variation in Rio Mannu water resources budget and hydrologic extremes in the future period as compared to the reference one. Our results confirms what is generally predicted for the Mediterranean area, showing a basin future condition of more water shortages due to both reduced precipitations and increased temperatures.

Development of a Simple Framework to Assess Hydrological Extremes using Solely Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foulon, E.; Gagnon, P.; Rousseau, A. N.

2014-12-01

Extreme flow conditions such as droughts and floods are in general the direct consequences of short- to long-term weather/climate anomalies. For example, in southern Quebec, Canada, winter and summer 7-day low flows are due to summer and fall precipitations. Which prompts the question: is it possible to assess future extreme flow conditions from meteorological/climate indices or should we rely on the classical approach of using outputs of climate models as input to a hydrological model? The objective of this study is to assess six hydrological indices describing extreme flows at the watershed scale (Qmax, Qmin;7d, Qmin;30d for two seasons: winter and summer) using local climate indices without relying on the aforementioned classical approach. To establish the relationship between climate and hydrological indices, daily precipitations, minimum and maximum temperatures from 89 climate projections are used as inputs to a distributed hydrological model. River flows are simulated at the outlet of the Yamaska and Bécancour watersheds in Québec for the 1961-2100 periods. To identify the best predictors, hydrological indices are extracted from the flow series, and climate indices are computed for different time intervals (from a day up to four years). The difference between four-month, cumulative, climatic demand (P-ETP) explains 69% of the 7-day summer low flow during the calibration process. For both watersheds, preliminary findings indicate that the selected indices explain, on average, 38 and 60% of the variability of high- and low-flow indices, respectively. Overall, the results clearly illustrate that the change in the hydrological indices can be detected through the concurrent trends in the climate indices. The use of many climate projections ensures the relationships are not simulation-dependent and shows summer events are particularly at risk with increasing high flows and decreasing low flows. The development of a simple predictive tool to assess the impact of climate change on flows represents one of the major spin-off benefits of this study and may prooveto be useful to municipalities concerned with source water and flood management. Future work includes development of additional climate indices and application of the framework to more watersheds.

A comparison of the watershed hydrology of coastal forested wetlands and the mountainous uplands in the Southern US

Treesearch

G. Sun; S.G. McNulty; D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; L.W. Swift; J.P. Shepard; H. Riekerk

2002-01-01

Hydrology plays a critical roie in wetland development and ecosystem structure and functions. Hydrologic responses to forest management and climate change are diverse in the Southern United States due to topographic and climatic differences. This paper presents a comparison study on long-term hydrologic characteristics (long-term seasonal runoff patterns, water...

The integrated effects of future climate and hydrologic uncertainty on sustainable flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinschneider, S.; Wi, S.; Brown, C. M.

2013-12-01

Flood risk management performance is investigated within the context of integrated climate and hydrologic modeling uncertainty to explore system robustness. The research question investigated is whether structural and hydrologic parameterization uncertainties are significant relative to other uncertainties such as climate change when considering water resources system performance. Two hydrologic models are considered, a conceptual, lumped parameter model that preserves the water balance and a physically-based model that preserves both water and energy balances. In the conceptual model, parameter and structural uncertainties are quantified and propagated through the analysis using a Bayesian modeling framework with an innovative error model. Mean climate changes and internal climate variability are explored using an ensemble of simulations from a stochastic weather generator. The approach presented can be used to quantify the sensitivity of flood protection adequacy to different sources of uncertainty in the climate and hydrologic system, enabling the identification of robust projects that maintain adequate performance despite the uncertainties. The method is demonstrated in a case study for the Coralville Reservoir on the Iowa River, where increased flooding over the past several decades has raised questions about potential impacts of climate change on flood protection adequacy.

Modeling non-linear growth responses to temperature and hydrology in wetland trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keim, R.; Allen, S. T.

2016-12-01

Growth responses of wetland trees to flooding and climate variations are difficult to model because they depend on multiple, apparently interacting factors, but are a critical link in hydrological control of wetland carbon budgets. To more generally understand tree growth to hydrological forcing, we modeled non-linear responses of tree ring growth to flooding and climate at sub-annual time steps, using Vaganov-Shashkin response functions. We calibrated the model to six baldcypress tree-ring chronologies from two hydrologically distinct sites in southern Louisiana, and tested several hypotheses of plasticity in wetlands tree responses to interacting environmental variables. The model outperformed traditional multiple linear regression. More importantly, optimized response parameters were generally similar among sites with varying hydrological conditions, suggesting generality to the functions. Model forms that included interacting responses to multiple forcing factors were more effective than were single response functions, indicating the principle of a single limiting factor is not correct in wetlands and both climatic and hydrological variables must be considered in predicting responses to hydrological or climate change.

Reference hydrologic networks II. Using reference hydrologic networks to assess climate-driven changes in streamflow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Thorne, Robin; Marsh, Terry

2012-01-01

Reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) can play an important role in monitoring for changes in the hydrological regime related to climate variation and change. Currently, the literature concerning hydrological response to climate variations is complex and confounded by the combinations of many methods of analysis, wide variations in hydrology, and the inclusion of data series that include changes in land use, storage regulation and water use in addition to those of climate. Three case studies that illustrate a variety of approaches to the analysis of data from RHNs are presented and used, together with a summary of studies from the literature, to develop approaches for the investigation of changes in the hydrological regime at a continental or global scale, particularly for international comparison. We present recommendations for an analysis framework and the next steps to advance such an initiative. There is a particular focus on the desirability of establishing standardized procedures and methodologies for both the creation of new national RHNs and the systematic analysis of data derived from a collection of RHNs.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATION AND CHANGE ON MID-ATLANTIC REGION HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES

EPA Science Inventory

The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projectio...

An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models

DOE PAGES

Yuan, Xing

2016-06-22

This is the second paper of a two-part series on introducing an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin in northern China. While the natural hydrological predictability in terms of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) is investigated in a companion paper, the added value from eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models with a grand ensemble of 99 members is assessed in this paper, with an implicit consideration of human-induced uncertainty in the hydrological models through a post-processing procedure. The forecast skill in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) for 2 m air temperature and precipitation does not necessarily decrease overmore » leads but is dependent on the target month due to a strong seasonality for the climate over the Yellow River basin. As there is more diversity in the model performance for the temperature forecasts than the precipitation forecasts, the grand NMME ensemble mean forecast has consistently higher skill than the best single model up to 6 months for the temperature but up to 2 months for the precipitation. The NMME climate predictions are downscaled to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model and a global routing model regionalized over the Yellow River basin to produce forecasts of soil moisture, runoff and streamflow. And the NMME/VIC forecasts are compared with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP/VIC) through 6-month hindcast experiments for each calendar month during 1982–2010. As verified by the VIC offline simulations, the NMME/VIC is comparable to the ESP/VIC for the soil moisture forecasts, and the former has higher skill than the latter only for the forecasts at long leads and for those initialized in the rainy season. The forecast skill for runoff is lower for both forecast approaches, but the added value from NMME/VIC is more obvious, with an increase of the average AC by 0.08–0.2. To compare with the observed streamflow, both the hindcasts from NMME/VIC and ESP/VIC are post-processed through a linear regression model fitted by using VIC offline-simulated streamflow. The post-processed NMME/VIC reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) from the post-processed ESP/VIC by 5–15 %. And the reduction occurs mostly during the transition from wet to dry seasons. As a result, with the consideration of the uncertainty in the hydrological models, the added value from climate forecast models is decreased especially at short leads, suggesting the necessity of improving the large-scale hydrological models in human-intervened river basins.« less

An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Xing

This is the second paper of a two-part series on introducing an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin in northern China. While the natural hydrological predictability in terms of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) is investigated in a companion paper, the added value from eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models with a grand ensemble of 99 members is assessed in this paper, with an implicit consideration of human-induced uncertainty in the hydrological models through a post-processing procedure. The forecast skill in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) for 2 m air temperature and precipitation does not necessarily decrease overmore » leads but is dependent on the target month due to a strong seasonality for the climate over the Yellow River basin. As there is more diversity in the model performance for the temperature forecasts than the precipitation forecasts, the grand NMME ensemble mean forecast has consistently higher skill than the best single model up to 6 months for the temperature but up to 2 months for the precipitation. The NMME climate predictions are downscaled to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model and a global routing model regionalized over the Yellow River basin to produce forecasts of soil moisture, runoff and streamflow. And the NMME/VIC forecasts are compared with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP/VIC) through 6-month hindcast experiments for each calendar month during 1982–2010. As verified by the VIC offline simulations, the NMME/VIC is comparable to the ESP/VIC for the soil moisture forecasts, and the former has higher skill than the latter only for the forecasts at long leads and for those initialized in the rainy season. The forecast skill for runoff is lower for both forecast approaches, but the added value from NMME/VIC is more obvious, with an increase of the average AC by 0.08–0.2. To compare with the observed streamflow, both the hindcasts from NMME/VIC and ESP/VIC are post-processed through a linear regression model fitted by using VIC offline-simulated streamflow. The post-processed NMME/VIC reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) from the post-processed ESP/VIC by 5–15 %. And the reduction occurs mostly during the transition from wet to dry seasons. As a result, with the consideration of the uncertainty in the hydrological models, the added value from climate forecast models is decreased especially at short leads, suggesting the necessity of improving the large-scale hydrological models in human-intervened river basins.« less

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ent, R.; Van Beek, R.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Wang-Erlandsson, L.; Hessels, T.; Bastiaanssen, W.; Bierkens, M. F.

2017-12-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. Root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Vegetation root zone storage and rooting depth, derived from local calibration of a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ent, Ruud; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; Hessels, Tim; Bastiaanssen, Wim; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The storage and dynamics of water in the root zone control many important hydrological processes such as saturation excess overland flow, interflow, recharge, capillary rise, soil evaporation and transpiration. These processes are parameterized in hydrological models or land-surface schemes and the effect on runoff prediction can be large. For root zone parameters in global hydrological models are very uncertain as they cannot be measured directly at the scale on which these models operate. In this paper we calibrate the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB using a state-of-the-art ensemble of evaporation fields derived by solving the energy balance for satellite observations. We focus our calibration on the root zone parameters of PCR-GLOBWB and derive spatial patterns of maximum root zone storage. We find these patterns to correspond well with previous research. The parameterization of our model allows for the conversion of maximum root zone storage to root zone depth and we find that these correspond quite well to the point observations where available. We conclude that climate and soil type should be taken into account when regionalizing measured root depth for a certain vegetation type. We equally find that using evaporation rather than discharge better allows for local adjustment of root zone parameters within a basin and thus provides orthogonal data to diagnose and optimize hydrological models and land surface schemes.

Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin

2013-04-01

Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting drought are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited. Evaluation of past droughts and their mechanisms is limited by data availability and especially before the instrumental period of the last 50-100 years, for which there is reliance on incomplete spatial proxy data, such as tree rings. Seasonal predictability is currently mainly limited to tropical and sub-tropical regions through connections with sea surface temperature variations such as ENSO. Predictability in mid-latitudes is low and especially for precipitation, although dynamical model predictions appear to be edging statistical models in many aspects of seasonal prediction. This presentation describes ongoing research on evaluation of drought risk and drought mechanisms at regional to global scales with the eventual goal of developing a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales. Such a framework would allow consistent assessment of drought from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental global drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of drought variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed and drought mechanisms can be diagnosed. Future drought risk is quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. Current research is focused on several aspects, including: 1) quantifying the uncertainties in historic drought reconstructions; 2) analysis of drought propagation through the coupled hydrological/vegetation system; 3) the utility of new data sources such as on the ground sensors and new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, for improved monitoring and prediction, especially in poorly observed regions; 4) advancing predictive skill for all aspects of drought occurrence through diagnosis of the driving mechanisms and feedbacks of historic droughts; and 5) quantification and reduction of uncertainties in future projections of drought under climate change. The steps towards the development of a seamless framework for analysis and prediction in the context of this research are discussed.

A National Program for Analysis of the Climate System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Arkin, Phil; Kalnay, Eugenia; Laver, James; Trenberth, Kevin

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single greatest roadblock to fundamental advances in our understanding of climate variability and climate change is the lack of robust and unbiased long-term global observations of the climate system. Such observations are critical for the identification and diagnosis of climate variations, and provide the constraints necessary for developing and validating climate models. The first generation of reanalysis efforts, by using fixed analysis systems, eliminated the artificial climate signals that occurred in analyses generated at the operational numerical weather prediction centers. These datasets are now widely used by the scientific community in a variety of applications including atmosphere-ocean interactions, seasonal prediction, climate monitoring, the hydrological cycle, and a host of regional and other diagnostic studies. These reanalyses, however, had problems that made them sub-optimal or even unusable for some applications. Perhaps the most serious problem for climate applications was that, while the assimilation system remained fixed, changes in the observing systems did produce spurious changes in the perceived climate. The first generation reanalysis products also exposed problems with physical consistency of the products and the accurate representation of physical processes in the climate system. Examples are bias in the estimates of ocean surface fluxes, and inadequate representation of polar hydrology. In this talk, I will describe some initial plans for a national program on reananlysis. The program is envisioned to be part of an on-going activity to maintain, improve, and reprocess our record of climate observations. I will discuss various issues affecting the quality of reanalyses, with a special focus on those relevant to the ocean.

The impact of changing climate conditions on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments in Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Tapoglou, Evdokia; Tsanis, Ioannis

2017-04-01

Climate change, although is already happening, consists of a big threat capable of causing lots of inconveniences in future societies and their economies. In this work, the climate change impact on the hydrological behavior of several Mediterranean sub-catchments, in Crete, is presented. The sensitivity of these hydrological systems to several climate change scenarios is also provided. The HBV hydrological model has been used, calibrated and validated for the study sub-catchments against measured weather and streamflow data and inputs. The impact of climate change on several hydro-meteorological parameters (i.e. precipitation, streamflow etc.) and hydrological signatures (i.e. spring flood peak, length and volume, base flow, flow duration curves, seasonality etc.) have been statistically elaborated and analyzed, defining areas of increased probability risk associated additionally to flooding or drought. The potential impacts of climate change on current and future water resources have been quantified by driving HBV model with current and future scenarios, respectively, for specific climate periods. This work aims to present an integrated methodology for the definition of future climate and hydrological risks and the prediction of future water resources behavior. Future water resources management could be rationally effectuated, in Mediterranean sub-catchments prone to drought or flooding, using the proposed methodology. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Hydrologic landscape classification evaluates streamflow vulnerability to climate change in Oregon, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Classification can allow assessments of the hydrologic functions of landscapes and their responses to stressors. Here we demonstrate the use of a hydrologic landscape (HL) approach to assess vulnerability to potential future climate change at statewide and basin scales. The HL ...

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States

DOE PAGES

Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-09-01

We present high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes over the contiguous U.S. using a regional climate model (RegCM4) that dynamically downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project at 18km horizontal grid spacing. All model integrations span 41 years in the historical period (1965 – 2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010 – 2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and cover a domain that includes the contiguous U.S. and parts of Canada and Mexico. Should emissions continue to rise, surface temperatures in every region within the U.S. will reach amore » new climate norm well before mid 21st century regardless of the magnitudes of regional warming. Significant warming will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. The future temperature response will be partly regulated by changes in snow hydrology over the regions that historically receive a major portion of cold season precipitation in the form of snow. Our results indicate the existence of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling at regional scales where per degree centigrade rise in surface temperature will lead to a 7.4% increase in precipitation from extremes. More importantly, both winter (snow) and summer (liquid) extremes are projected to increase across the U.S. These changes in precipitation characteristics will be driven by a shift towards shorter and wetter seasons. Altogether, projected changes in the regional hydro-climate can have substantial impacts on the natural and human systems across the U.S.« less

Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

2017-12-01

The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

Making sense of Big Data in Hydrology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, N.; Blodgett, D. L.; Briar, D.

2013-12-01

At the same time that "big data" promises to help provide new insights for understanding earth processes, budget challenges require we more effectively use data collected by organizations other than our own. Answering societally relevant questions related to water requires that we consider all natural and anthropogenic aspects of the hydrologic cycle. How do we integrate across organizations and across water cycle components to satisfy these challenges and expectations? We now need to move beyond metadata that describe individual datasets to an ability to interrogate integrated collections of observations. Furthermore, we need to be able to query across obvious (yet elusive) dimensions including hydrologic context and position while filtering for data of a known quality that meets our purpose. In addition, we need to traverse the climate/geography interface, efficiently attributing a climate signal to watersheds. We know that water flows downhill and that after heavy rain, streams flood. But we cannot systematically query for observations made during a flashy summer storm-related flood upstream from notable points on a river or stream such as water treatment intakes. USGS has long committed to providing real-time access to surface and groundwater monitoring networks across the United States. Of the over 45 million requests made for these data in a recent month, nearly a quarter were made via mobile devices. An additional 19.8 million requests were made to web services that provide content according to community and international data standards -- presumably to support other applications and mash ups. This presentation will describe ongoing efforts at the USGS on how we are working with the earth sciences and water resource management communities to develop and implement new techniques for both delivering and consuming hydrologic data. Our strategy has been an "all-of-the-above" approach whereby we recognize and work to advance best practices in various communities of interest (hydrology, weather/climate, oceans, health, landscape) and adapt our hydrologic data platforms to deliver, consume and broker information accordingly.

Satellite Remote Sensing is Key to Water Cycle Integrator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koike, T.

2016-12-01

To promote effective multi-sectoral, interdisciplinary collaboration based on coordinated and integrated efforts, the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) is now developing a "GEOSS Water Cycle Integrator (WCI)", which integrates "Earth observations", "modeling", "data and information", "management systems" and "education systems". GEOSS/WCI sets up "work benches" by which partners can share data, information and applications in an interoperable way, exchange knowledge and experiences, deepen mutual understanding and work together effectively to ultimately respond to issues of both mitigation and adaptation. (A work bench is a virtual geographical or phenomenological space where experts and managers collaborate to use information to address a problem within that space). GEOSS/WCI enhances the coordination of efforts to strengthen individual, institutional and infrastructure capacities, especially for effective interdisciplinary coordination and integration. GEOSS/WCI archives various satellite data to provide various hydrological information such as cloud, rainfall, soil moisture, or land-surface snow. These satellite products were validated using land observation in-situ data. Water cycle models can be developed by coupling in-situ and satellite data. River flows and other hydrological parameters can be simulated and validated by in-situ data. Model outputs from weather-prediction, seasonal-prediction, and climate-prediction models are archived. Some of these model outputs are archived on an online basis, but other models, e.g., climate-prediction models are archived on an offline basis. After models are evaluated and biases corrected, the outputs can be used as inputs into the hydrological models for predicting the hydrological parameters. Additionally, we have already developed a data-assimilation system by combining satellite data and the models. This system can improve our capability to predict hydrological phenomena. The WCI can provide better predictions of the hydrological parameters for integrated water resources management (IWRM) and also assess the impact of climate change and calculate adaptation needs.

Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events - Risks and Perspectives for Water Management in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

There is as yet no confirmed knowledge whether and how climate change contributes to the magnitude and frequency of hydrological extreme events and how regional water management could adapt to the corresponding risks. The ClimEx project (2015-2019) investigates the effects of climate change on the meteorological and hydrological extreme events and their implications for water management in Bavaria and Québec. High Performance Computing is employed to enable the complex simulations in a hydro-climatological model processing chain, resulting in a unique high-resolution and transient (1950-2100) dataset of climatological and meteorological forcing and hydrological response: (1) The climate module has developed a large ensemble of high resolution data (12km) of the CRCM5 RCM for Central Europe and North-Eastern North America, downscaled from 50 members of the CanESM2 GCM. The dataset is complemented by all available data from the Euro-CORDEX project to account for the assessment of both natural climate variability and climate change. The large ensemble with several thousand model years provides the potential to catch rare extreme events and thus improves the process understanding of extreme events with return periods of 1000+ years. (2) The hydrology module comprises process-based and spatially explicit model setups (e.g. WaSiM) for all major catchments in Bavaria and Southern Québec in high temporal (3h) and spatial (500m) resolution. The simulations form the basis for in depth analysis of hydrological extreme events based on the inputs from the large climate model dataset. The specific data situation enables to establish a new method for `virtual perfect prediction', which assesses climate change impacts on flood risk and water resources management by identifying patterns in the data which reveal preferential triggers of hydrological extreme events. The presentation will highlight first results from the analysis of the large scale ClimEx model ensemble, showing the current and future ratio of natural variability and climate change impacts on meteorological extreme events. Selected data from the ensemble is used to drive a hydrological model experiment to illustrate the capacity to better determine the recurrence periods of hydrological extreme events under conditions of climate change.

Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

2018-01-01

Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance level, but their temporal variation could be well modeled by using the fourth-order polynomial. Overall, this study further emphasized the importance of using multiple GCMs for studying climate change impacts on hydrology. Furthermore, the temporal variation of uncertainty sourced from GCMs should be given more attention.

Response and adaptation of grapevine cultivars to hydrological conditions forced by a changing climate in a complex landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Lorenzi, Francesca; Bonfante, Antonello; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Monaco, Eugenia; De Mascellis, Roberto; Manna, Piero; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Soil water availability is one of the main components of the terroir concept, influencing crop yield and fruit composition in grapes. The aim of this work is to analyze some elements of the "natural environment" of terroir (climate and soil) in combination with the intra-specific biodiversity of yield responses of grapevine to water availability. From a reference (1961-90) to a future (2021-50) climate case, the effects of climate evolution on soil water availability are assessed and, regarding soil water regime as a predictor variable, the potential spatial distribution of wine-producing cultivars is determined. In a region of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, 20,000 ha), where a terroir classification has been produced (Bonfante et al., 2011), we applied an agro-hydrological model to determine water availability indicators. Simulations were performed in 60 soil typological units, over the entire study area, and water availability (= hydrological) indicators were determined. Two climate cases were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050), the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of predictions by general circulation models (AOGCM) under A1B SRES scenario. Climatic data consist of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. Spatial and temporal variability of hydrological indicators was addressed. With respect to temporal variability, both inter-annual and intra-annual (i.e. at different stages of crop cycle) variability were analyzed. Some cultivar-specific relations between hydrological indicators and characteristics of must quality were established. Moreover, for several wine-producing cultivars, hydrological requirements were determined by means of yield response functions to soil water availability, through the re-analysis of experimental data derived from scientific literature. The standard errors of estimated requirements were determined. To assess cultivars adaptability, hydrological requirements were evaluated against hydrological indicators. A probabilistic assessment of adaptability was performed, and the inaccuracy of estimated hydrological requirements was accounted for by the error of estimate and its distribution. Maps of cultivars potential distribution, i.e. locations where each cultivar is expected to be compatible with climate, were derived and possible options for adaptation to climate change were defined. The 2021 - 2050 climate scenario was characterized by higher temperatures throughout the year and by a significant decrease in precipitation during spring and autumn. The results have shown the relevant variability of soils water regime and its effects on cultivars adaptability. In the future climate scenario, a hydrological indicator (i.e. relative evapotranspiration deficit - RETD), averaged over the growing season, showed an average increase of 5-8 %, and more pronounced increases occurred in the phenological phases of berry formation and ripening. At the locations where soil hydrological conditions were favourable (like the ancient terraces), hydrological indicators were quite similar in both climate scenarios and the adaptability of the cultivars was high both in the reference and future climate case. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008) Keywords: climate change, Vitis vinifera L., simulation model, yield response functions, potential cultivation area.

Adapting regional watershed management to climate change in Bavaria and Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf; Muerth, Markus; Schmid, Josef; Jobst, Andreas; Caya, Daniel; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Chaumont, Diane; Velazquez, Juan-Alberto; Turcotte, Richard; Ricard, Simon

2013-04-01

The international research project QBic3 (Quebec-Bavarian Collaboration on Climate Change) aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of regional scale catchments in Southern Quebec (Canada) and Bavaria (Germany). For this purpose, a hydro-meteorological modeling chain has been established, applying climatic forcing from both dynamical and statistical climate model data to an ensemble of hydrological models of varying complexity. The selection of input data, process descriptions and scenarios allows for the inter-comparison of the uncertainty ranges on selected runoff indicators; a methodology to display the relative importance of each source of uncertainty is developed and results for past runoff (1971-2000) and potential future changes (2041-2070) are obtained. Finally, the impact of hydrological changes on the operational management of dams, reservoirs and transfer systems is investigated and shown for the Bavarian case studies, namely the potential change in i) hydro-power production for the Upper Isar watershed and ii) low flow augmentation and water transfer rates at the Donau-Main transfer system in Central Franconia. Two overall findings will be presented and discussed in detail: a) the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows, is strongly affected by the choice of the hydrological model. It can be shown that an assessment of the changes in the hydrological cycle is best represented by a complex physically based hydrological model, computationally less demanding models (usually simple, lumped and conceptual) can give a significant level of trust for selected indicators. b) the major differences in the projected climate forcing stemming from the ensemble of dynamic climate models (GCM/RCM) versus the statistical-stochastical WETTREG2010 approach. While the dynamic ensemble reveals a moderate modification of the hydrological processes in the investigated catchments, the WETTREG2010 driven runs show a severe detraction for all water operations, mainly related to a strong decline in projected precipitation in all seasons (except winter).

Analysis of extreme rain and flood events using a regional hydrologically enhanced hydrometeorological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yucel, Ismail; Onen, Alper

2013-04-01

Evidence is showing that global warming or climate change has a direct influence on changes in precipitation and the hydrological cycle. Extreme weather events such as heavy rainfall and flooding are projected to become much more frequent as climate warms. Regional hydrometeorological system model which couples the atmosphere with physical and gridded based surface hydrology provide efficient predictions for extreme hydrological events. This modeling system can be used for flood forecasting and warning issues as they provide continuous monitoring of precipitation over large areas at high spatial resolution. This study examines the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Hydro) model that performs the terrain, sub-terrain, and channel routing in producing streamflow from WRF-derived forcing of extreme precipitation events. The capability of the system with different options such as data assimilation is tested for number of flood events observed in basins of western Black Sea Region in Turkey. Rainfall event structures and associated flood responses are evaluated with gauge and satellite-derived precipitation and measured streamflow values. The modeling system shows skills in capturing the spatial and temporal structure of extreme rainfall events and resulted flood hydrographs. High-resolution routing modules activated in the model enhance the simulated discharges.

Sensitivity of wetland hydrology to external climate forcing in central Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Donders, Timme H.; Pearce, Christof; Cremer, Holger; Gaiser, Evelyn E.; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2015-11-01

Available proxy records from the Florida peninsula give a varying view on hydrological changes during the late Holocene. Here we evaluate the consistency and sensitivity of local wetland records in relation to hydrological changes over the past 5 ka based on pollen and diatom proxies from peat cores in Highlands Hammock State Park, central Florida. Around 5 cal ka BP, a dynamic floodplain environment is present. Subsequently, a wetland forest establishes, followed by a change to persistent wet conditions between 2.5 and 2.0 ka. Long hydroperiods remain despite gradual succession and basin infilling with maximum wet conditions between 1.3 and 1.0 ka. The wet phase and subsequent strong drying over the last millennium, as indicated by shifts in both pollen and diatom assemblages, can be linked to the early Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, driven by regionally higher sea-surface temperatures and a temporary northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Changes during the 20th century are the result of constructions intended to protect the Highlands Hammock State Park from wildfires. The multiple cores and proxies allow distinguishing local and regional hydrological changes. The peat records reflect relatively subtle climatic changes that are not evident from regional pollen records from lakes.

Pollen assemblages as paleoenvironmental proxies in the Florida Everglades

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willard, D.A.; Weimer, L.M.; Riegel, W.L.

2001-01-01

Analysis of 170 pollen assemblages from surface samples in eight vegetation types in the Florida Everglades indicates that these wetland sub-environments are distinguishable from the pollen record and that they are useful proxies for hydrologic and edaphic parameters. Vegetation types sampled include sawgrass marshes, cattail marshes, sloughs with floating aquatics, wet prairies, brackish marshes, tree islands, cypress swamps, and mangrove forests. The distribution of these vegetation types is controlled by specific environmental parameters, such as hydrologic regime, nutrient availability, disturbance level, substrate type, and salinity; ecotones between vegetation types may be sharp. Using R-mode cluster analysis of pollen data, we identified diagnostic species groupings; Q-mode cluster analysis was used to differentiate pollen signatures of each vegetation type. Cluster analysis and the modern analog technique were applied to interpret vegetational and environmental trends over the last two millennia at a site in Water Conservation Area 3A. The results show that close modern analogs exist for assemblages in the core and indicate past hydrologic changes at the site, correlated with both climatic and land-use changes. The ability to differentiate marshes with different hydrologic and edaphic requirements using the pollen record facilitates assessment of relative impacts of climatic and anthropogenic changes on this wetland ecosystem on smaller spatial and temporal scales than previously were possible. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V.

Using stable isotopes to assess surface water source dynamics and hydrological connectivity in a high-latitude wetland and permafrost influenced landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ala-aho, P.; Soulsby, C.; Pokrovsky, O. S.; Kirpotin, S. N.; Karlsson, J.; Serikova, S.; Vorobyev, S. N.; Manasypov, R. M.; Loiko, S.; Tetzlaff, D.

2018-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes in high-latitude inland waters. A critical question for understanding contemporary and future responses to environmental change is how the spatio-temporal dynamics of runoff generation processes will be affected. We sampled stable water isotopes in soils, lakes and rivers on an unprecedented spatio-temporal scale along a 1700 km transect over three years in the Western Siberia Lowlands. Our findings suggest that snowmelt mixes with, and displaces, large volumes of water stored in the organic soils and lakes to generate runoff during the thaw season. Furthermore, we saw a persistent hydrological connection between water bodies and the landscape across permafrost regions. Our findings help to bridge the understanding between small and large scale hydrological studies in high-latitude systems. These isotope data provide a means to conceptualise hydrological connectivity in permafrost and wetland influenced regions, which is needed for an improved understanding of future biogeochemical changes.

Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

2009-12-01

Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as irrigation intensity and duration (e.g., quantity) increased. Upscaling our conceptual models to the watershed and regional scales, historical data (1970-2004) was used to investigate whether dominant hydrological processes changed over time due to land use change. Preliminary investigations reveal much higher runoff coefficients (<30%) at the larger watershed scales. The increase in importance of runoff at the larger geographic scales suggests an emerging process and process non-linearity between the smaller and larger scales. Upscaling is an important and useful concept when investigating catchment response using the tools of field work and/or physically distributed hydrological modeling.

A scenario neutral approach to assess low flow sensitivity to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sauquet, Eric; Prudhomme, Christel

2015-04-01

Most impact studies of climate change on river flow regime are performed following top-down approaches, where changes in hydrological characteristics are obtained from rainfall-runoff models forced by downscaled projections provided by GCMs. However, such approaches are not always considered robust enough to bridge the gap between climate research and stake holders needs to develop relevant adaptation strategy (Wilby et al., 2014). Alternatively, 'bottom-up' approaches can be applied to climate change impact studies on water resources to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of the catchments and ultimately help to prioritize adaptation actions for areas highly sensitive to small deviations from the present-day climate conditions. A general framework combining the scenario-neutral methodology developed by Prudhomme et al. (2010) and climate elasticity analyses (Sankarasubramanian et al., 2001) is presented and applied to measure the vulnerability of low flows and droughts on a large dataset of more than 400 French gauged basins. The different steps involved in the suggested framework are: - Calibration of the GR5J rainfall runoff model (Pushpalatha et al., 2011) against observations, - Identification of the main climate factors influencing low flows, - Definition of the sensitivity domain for precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) scenarios consistent with most recent climate change projections, - Derivation of the response surface describing changes in low flow and drought regime in terms of severity, duration and seasonality (Catalogne, 2012), - Uncertainty assessment. Results are the basis for a classification of river basins according to their sensitivity at national scale and for discussions on adaptation requirements with stakeholders. Catalogne C (2012) Amélioration des méthodes de prédétermination des débits de référence d'étiage en sites peu ou pas jaugés. PHD thesis, Université Joseph Fourier, Grenoble, 285 pp. Pushpalatha R, Perrin C, Le Moine N, Mathevet T, Andreassian V (2011) A downward structural sensitivity analysis of hydrological models to improve low-flow simulation. Journal of Hydrology 411.1-2. Prudhomme C, Wilby LR, Crooks SM, Kay AL, Reynard NS (2010) Scenario-neutral approach to climate change impact studies: application to flood risk. Journal of Hydrology, 390:198-209. Sankarasubramanian A, Vogel RM, Limbrunner JF (2001) Climate elasticity of streamflow in the United States. Water Resources Research, 3(6):1771-1781. Wilby R, Dawson C, Murphy C, O'Connor P., Hawkins E. (2014) The Statistical DownScaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications. Climate Research, 61(3):259-276.

A global model simulation for 3-D radiative transfer impact on surface hydrology over the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, W. -L.; Gu, Y.; Liou, K. N.

2015-05-19

We investigate 3-D mountain effects on solar flux distributions and their impact on surface hydrology over the western United States, specifically the Rocky Mountains and the Sierra Nevada, using the global CCSM4 (Community Climate System Model version 4; Community Atmosphere Model/Community Land Model – CAM4/CLM4) with a 0.23° × 0.31° resolution for simulations over 6 years. In a 3-D radiative transfer parameterization, we have updated surface topography data from a resolution of 1 km to 90 m to improve parameterization accuracy. In addition, we have also modified the upward-flux deviation (3-D–PP (plane-parallel)) adjustment to ensure that the energy balance atmore » the surface is conserved in global climate simulations based on 3-D radiation parameterization. We show that deviations in the net surface fluxes are not only affected by 3-D mountains but also influenced by feedbacks of cloud and snow in association with the long-term simulations. Deviations in sensible heat and surface temperature generally follow the patterns of net surface solar flux. The monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) deviations show an increase in lower elevations due to reduced snowmelt, leading to a reduction in cumulative runoff. Over higher-elevation areas, negative SWE deviations are found because of increased solar radiation available at the surface. Simulated precipitation increases for lower elevations, while it decreases for higher elevations, with a minimum in April. Liquid runoff significantly decreases at higher elevations after April due to reduced SWE and precipitation.« less

Land-margin ecosystem hydrologic data for the coastal Everglades, Florida, water years 1996-2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.; Balentine, Karen M.

2014-01-01

Mangrove forests and salt marshes dominate the landscape of the coastal Everglades (Odum and McIvor, 1990). However, the ecological effects from potential sea-level rise and increased water flows from planned freshwater Everglades restoration on these coastal systems are poorly understood. The National Park Service (NPS) proposed the South Florida Global Climate Change Project (SOFL-GCC) in 1990 to evaluate climate change and the effect from rising sea levels on the coastal Everglades, particularly at the marsh/mangrove interface or ecotone (Soukup and others, 1990). A primary objective of SOFL-GCC project was to monitor and synthesize the hydrodynamics of the coastal Everglades from the upstream freshwater marsh to the downstream estuary mangrove. Two related hypotheses were set forward (Nuttle and Cosby, 1993): 1. There exists hydrologic conditions (tide, local rainfall, and upstream water deliveries), which characterize the location of the marsh/mangrove ecotone along the marine and terrestrial hydrologic gradient; and 2. The marsh/mangrove ecotone is sensitive to fluctuations in sea level and freshwater inflow from inland areas. Hydrologic monitoring of the SOFL-GCC network began in 1995 after startup delays from Hurricane Andrew (August 1992) and organizational transfers from the NPS to the National Biological Survey (October 1993) and the merger with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Biological Research Division in 1996 (Smith, 2004). As the SOFL-GCC project progressed, concern by environmental scientists and land managers over how the diversion of water from Everglades National Park would affect the restoration of the greater Everglades ecosystem. Everglades restoration scenarios were based on hydrodynamic models, none of which included the coastal zone (Fennema and others, 1994). Modeling efforts were expanded to include the Everglades coastal zone (Schaffranek and others, 2001) with SOFL-GCC hydrologic data assisting the ecological modeling needs. In 2002, as a response for a more interdisciplinary science approach to understanding the coastal Everglades ecological system, the SOFL-GCC hydrology project was integrated into the “Dynamics of Land-Margin Ecosystems: Historical Change, Hydrology, Vegetation, Sediment, and Climate” study (Smith and others, 2002). Data from the ongoing study has been useful in providing an empirical hydrologic baseline for the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration science and management needs. The hydrology network consisted of 13 hydrologic gaging stations installed in the southwestern coastal region of Everglades National Park along three transects: Shark River (Shark or SH) transect, Lostmans River (Lostmans or LO) transect, and Chatham River (Chatham or CH) transect (fig. 1). There were five paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Shark transect (SH1, SH2, SH3, SH4, and SH5) and one stage gaging station (BSC) in the Big Sable Creek; four paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Lostmans transect (LO1, LO2, LO3, and LO4); and three paired surface-water/groundwater gaging stations on the Chatham transect (CH1, CH2, and CH3). Both surface-water and groundwater levels, salinities, and temperatures were monitored at the paired gaging stations. Rainfall was recorded at marsh and open canopy gaging stations. This report details the study introduction, method, and description of data collected, which are accessible through the final instantaneous hydrologic dataset stored in the USGS South Florida Information Access (SOFIA) South Florida Hydrology Database website, http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/sfl_hydro_data/location.html#brdlandmargin.

Influences of frozen ground and climate change on hydrological processes in an alpine watershed: A case study in the upstream area of the Hei’he River, Northwest China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Frozen soil prevails in cold regions and exerts significant influence on the hydrological cycle. In the context of climate warming, the spatial and temporal dynamics of frozen soil and hydrological processes also will change. How these changes inter-relate is a key challenge in studies of hydrologic...

iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

Treesearch

Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

2011-01-01

This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

Influences and interactions of inundation, peat, and snow on active layer thickness

DOE PAGES

Atchley, Adam L.; Coon, Ethan T.; Painter, Scott L.; ...

2016-05-18

Active layer thickness (ALT), the uppermost layer of soil that thaws on an annual basis, is a direct control on the amount of organic carbon potentially available for decomposition and release to the atmosphere as carbon-rich Arctic permafrost soils thaw in a warming climate. Here, we investigate how key site characteristics affect ALT using an integrated surface/subsurface permafrost thermal hydrology model. ALT is most sensitive to organic layer thickness followed by snow depth but is relatively insensitive to the amount of water on the landscape with other conditions held fixed. Furthermore, the weak ALT sensitivity to subsurface saturation suggests thatmore » changes in Arctic landscape hydrology may only have a minor effect on future ALT. But, surface inundation amplifies the sensitivities to the other parameters and under large snowpacks can trigger the formation of near-surface taliks.« less

Implications of climate change for potamodromous fishes.

PubMed

Beatty, Stephen J; Morgan, David L; Lymbery, Alan J

2014-06-01

There is little understanding of how climate change will impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Since the mid 1970s, a decline in annual rainfall in south-western Australia (a globally recognized biodiversity hotspot) has resulted in the rivers of the region undergoing severe reductions in surface flows (ca. 50%). There is universal agreement amongst Global Climate Models that rainfall will continue to decline in this region. Limited data are available on the movement patterns of the endemic freshwater fishes of south-western Australia or on the relationship between their life histories and hydrology. We used this region as a model to determine how dramatic hydrological change may impact potamodromous freshwater fishes. Migration patterns of fishes in the largest river in south-western Australia were quantified over a 4 year period and were related to a number of key environmental variables including discharge, temperature, pH, conductivity and dissolved oxygen. Most of the endemic freshwater fishes were potamodromous, displaying lateral seasonal spawning migrations from the main channel into tributaries, and there were significant temporal differences in movement patterns between species. Using a model averaging approach, amount of discharge was clearly the best predictor of upstream and downstream movement for most species. Given past and projected reductions in surface flow and groundwater, the findings have major implications for future recruitment rates and population viabilities of potamodromous fishes. Freshwater ecosystems in drying climatic regions can only be managed effectively if such hydro-ecological relationships are considered. Proactive management and addressing existing anthropogenic stressors on aquatic ecosystems associated with the development of surface and groundwater resources and land use is required to increase the resistance and resilience of potamodromous fishes to ongoing flow reductions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Combined measurement and modeling of the hydrological impact of hydraulic redistribution using CLM4.5 at eight AmeriFlux sites

DOE PAGES

Fu, Congsheng; Wang, Guiling; Goulden, Michael L.; ...

2016-05-17

Effects of hydraulic redistribution (HR) on hydrological, biogeochemical, and ecological processes have been demonstrated in the field, but the current generation of standard earth system models does not include a representation of HR. Though recent studies have examined the effect of incorporating HR into land surface models, few (if any) have done cross-site comparisons for contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types via the integration of measurement and modeling. Here, we incorporated the HR scheme of Ryel et al. (2002) into the NCAR Community Land Model Version 4.5 (CLM4.5), and examined the ability of the resulting hybrid model to capture themore » magnitude of HR flux and/or soil moisture dynamics from which HR can be directly inferred, to assess the impact of HR on land surface water and energy budgets, and to explore how the impact may depend on climate regimes and vegetation conditions. Eight AmeriFlux sites with contrasting climate regimes and multiple vegetation types were studied, including the Wind River Crane site in Washington State, the Santa Rita Mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, and six sites along the Southern California Climate Gradient. HR flux, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture were properly simulated in the present study, even in the face of various uncertainties. Our cross-ecosystem comparison showed that the timing, magnitude, and direction (upward or downward) of HR vary across ecosystems, and incorporation of HR into CLM4.5 improved the model-measurement matches of evapotranspiration, Bowen ratio, and soil moisture particularly during dry seasons. Lastly, our results also reveal that HR has important hydrological impact in ecosystems that have a pronounced dry season but are not overall so dry that sparse vegetation and very low soil moisture limit HR.« less

Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

2014-01-01

Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

Selecting climate change scenarios for regional hydrologic impact studies based on climate extremes indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, Seung Beom; Kim, Young-Oh; Kim, Youngil; Eum, Hyung-Il

2018-04-01

When selecting a subset of climate change scenarios (GCM models), the priority is to ensure that the subset reflects the comprehensive range of possible model results for all variables concerned. Though many studies have attempted to improve the scenario selection, there is a lack of studies that discuss methods to ensure that the results from a subset of climate models contain the same range of uncertainty in hydrologic variables as when all models are considered. We applied the Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang (KKZ) algorithm to select a subset of climate change scenarios and demonstrated its ability to reduce the number of GCM models in an ensemble, while the ranges of multiple climate extremes indices were preserved. First, we analyzed the role of 27 ETCCDI climate extremes indices for scenario selection and selected the representative climate extreme indices. Before the selection of a subset, we excluded a few deficient GCM models that could not represent the observed climate regime. Subsequently, we discovered that a subset of GCM models selected by the KKZ algorithm with the representative climate extreme indices could not capture the full potential range of changes in hydrologic extremes (e.g., 3-day peak flow and 7-day low flow) in some regional case studies. However, the application of the KKZ algorithm with a different set of climate indices, which are correlated to the hydrologic extremes, enabled the overcoming of this limitation. Key climate indices, dependent on the hydrologic extremes to be projected, must therefore be determined prior to the selection of a subset of GCM models.

Significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the Olifants River basin: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkhonjera, German K.; Dinka, Megersa O.

2017-11-01

This paper considers the extent and usefulness of reviewing existing literature on the significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources with emphasis on examples from the Olifants River basin. Here, the existing literature were extensively reviewed, with discussions centred mainly on the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and challenges in modelling climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Since in the hydrological cycle, the hydrological components such as evaporation, temperature, precipitation, and groundwater, are the major drivers of the present and future climate, a detailed discussion is done on the impact of climate change on these hydrological components to determine to what extent the hydrological cycle has already been affected as a result of climate change. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have also been reviewed. In addition to the research gaps discussed here, the emphasis on the need of extensive climate change research on the continent, especially as climate change impacts on groundwater, is discussed. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the significance of the impact of climate change on water resources such as groundwater, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review.

An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier for the Little Miami River (LMR) and Las Vegas Wash (LVW) watersheds were used for detail sensitivity analyses. To compare the relative sensitivities of the hydrologic parameters of these two models, we used Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE). By combining the NRMSE index with the flow duration curve analysis, we derived an approach to measure parameter sensitivities under different flow regimes. Results show that the parameters related to groundwater are highly sensitive in the LMR watershed, whereas the LVW watershed is primarily sensitive to near surface and impervious parameters. The high and medium flows are more impacted by most of the parameters. Low flow regime was highly sensitive to groundwater related parameters. Moreover, our approach is found to be useful in facilitating model development and calibration. This journal article describes hydrological modeling of climate change and land use changes on stream hydrology, and elucidates the importance of hydrological model construction in generating valid modeling results.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Modelling phosphorus transport and its response to climate change at upper stream of Poyang Lake-the largest fresh water lake in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Sanyuan; Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Phosphorus losses from excessive fertilizer application and improper land exploitation were found to be the limiting factor for freshwater quality deterioration and eutrophication. Phosphorus transport from uplands to river is related to hydrological, soil erosion and sediment transport processes, which is impacted by several physiographic and meteorological factors. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatiotemporal variation of phosphorus losses and response to climate change at a typical upstream tributary (Le'An river) of Poyang Lake. To this end, a process-oriented hydrological and nutrient transport model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) was set up for discharge and phosphorus transport simulation at Le'An catchment. Parameter ESTimator (PEST) was combined with HYPE model for parameter sensitivity analysis and optimisation. In runoff modelling, potential evapotranspiration rate of the dominant land use (forest) is most sensitive; parameters of surface runoff rate and percolation capacity for the red soil are also very sensitive. In phosphorus transport modelling, the exponent of equation for soil erosion processes induced by surface runoff is most sensitive, coefficient of adsorption/desorption processes for red soil is also very sensitive. Flow dynamics and water balance were simulated well at all sites for the whole period (1978-1986) with NSE≥0.80 and PBIAS≤14.53%. The optimized hydrological parameter set were transferable for the independent period (2009-2010) with NSE≥0.90 and highest PBIAS of -7.44% in stream flow simulation. Seasonal dynamics and balance of stream water TP (Total Phosphorus ) concentrations were captured satisfactorily indicated by NSE≥0.53 and highest PBIAS of 16.67%. In annual scale, most phosphorus is transported via surface runoff during heavy storm flow events, which may account for about 70% of annual TP loads. Based on future climate change analysis under three different emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), there is no considerable change in average annual rainfall amount in 2020-2035 while increasing occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events were predicted. The validated HYPE model was run on the three emission scenarios. Overall increase of TP loads was found in future with the largest increase of annual TP loads under the high emission scenario (RCP 8.5). The outcomes of this study (i) verified the transferability of HYPE model at humid subtropical and heterogeneous catchment; (ii) revealed the sensitive hydrological and phosphorus transport processes and relevant parameters; (iii) implied more TP losses in future in response to increasing extreme rainfall events.

Testing the Hydrological Coherence of High-Resolution Gridded Precipitation and Temperature Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laiti, L.; Mallucci, S.; Piccolroaz, S.; Bellin, A.; Zardi, D.; Fiori, A.; Nikulin, G.; Majone, B.

2018-03-01

Assessing the accuracy of gridded climate data sets is highly relevant to climate change impact studies, since evaluation, bias correction, and statistical downscaling of climate models commonly use these products as reference. Among all impact studies those addressing hydrological fluxes are the most affected by errors and biases plaguing these data. This paper introduces a framework, coined Hydrological Coherence Test (HyCoT), for assessing the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets with hydrological observations. HyCoT provides a framework for excluding meteorological forcing data sets not complying with observations, as function of the particular goal at hand. The proposed methodology allows falsifying the hypothesis that a given data set is coherent with hydrological observations on the basis of the performance of hydrological modeling measured by a metric selected by the modeler. HyCoT is demonstrated in the Adige catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) for streamflow analysis, using a distributed hydrological model. The comparison covers the period 1989-2008 and includes five gridded daily meteorological data sets: E-OBS, MSWEP, MESAN, APGD, and ADIGE. The analysis highlights that APGD and ADIGE, the data sets with highest effective resolution, display similar spatiotemporal precipitation patterns and produce the largest hydrological efficiency indices. Lower performances are observed for E-OBS, MESAN, and MSWEP, especially in small catchments. HyCoT reveals deficiencies in the representation of spatiotemporal patterns of gridded climate data sets, which cannot be corrected by simply rescaling the meteorological forcing fields, as often done in bias correction of climate model outputs. We recommend this framework to assess the hydrological coherence of gridded data sets to be used in large-scale hydroclimatic studies.

An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western United States using hydrologic landscape classification.

EPA Science Inventory

: Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs are being used to construct spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, a...

An analysis of historic and projected climate scenarios in the Western united States using hydrologic landscape classification

EPA Science Inventory

Identifying areas of similar hydrology within the United States and its regions (Hydrologic landscapes - HLs) is an active area of research. HLs have been used to make spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the ...

Using Hydrologic Landscape Classification to Evaluate the Hydrologic Effects of Climate in the Southwestern United States

EPA Science Inventory

Hydrologic landscapes (HLs) have been an active area of research at regional and national scales in the United States. The concept has been used to make spatially distributed assessments of variability in streamflow and climatic response in Oregon, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwe...

Climate Change on Mars: Cloud Greenhouse Effects in the Recent Past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberle, Robert M.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Hollingsorth, Jeffery L.

2014-11-01

The large variations in Mars’ orbit parameters are known to be significant drivers of climate change. We present results from an updated version of the Ames GCM that shows at times of high obliquity it is possible that water ice clouds from a greatly intensified Martian hydrological cycle may have produced a greenhouse effect strong enough to raise global mean surface temperatures by several tens of degrees Kelvin. It is made possible by the ability of the Martian atmosphere to transport water to high altitudes where cold water ice clouds form, reduce the outgoing long wave radiation, and cause surface temperatures to rise to maintain global energy balance. Since Mars spends much of its time at high obliquity, these results suggest that Mars undergoes even more significant climate change due to orbital variations than previously thought.

Earth System Science at NASA: Teleconnections Between Sea Surface Temperature and Epidemics in Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meeson, Blanche W.

2000-01-01

The research carried out in the Earth Sciences in NASA and at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center will be the focus of the presentations. In addition, one research project that links sea surface temperature to epidemics in Africa will be highlighted. At GSFC research interests span the full breath of disciplines in Earth Science. Branches and research groups focus on areas as diverse as planetary geomagnetics and atmospheric chemistry. These organizations focus on atmospheric sciences (atmospheric chemistry, climate and radiation, regional processes, atmospheric modeling), hydrological sciences (snow, ice, oceans, and seasonal-to-interannual prediction), terrestrial physics (geology, terrestrial biology, land-atmosphere interactions, geophysics), climate modeling (global warming, greenhouse gases, climate change), on sensor development especially using lidar and microwave technologies, and on information technologies, that enable support of scientific and technical research.

Development of a biosphere hydrological model considering vegetation dynamics and its evaluation at basin scale under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qiaoling; Ishidaira, Hiroshi

2012-01-01

SummaryThe biosphere and hydrosphere are intrinsically coupled. The scientific question is if there is a substantial change in one component such as vegetation cover, how will the other components such as transpiration and runoff generation respond, especially under climate change conditions? Stand-alone hydrological models have a detailed description of hydrological processes but do not sufficiently parameterize vegetation as a dynamic component. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. Therefore, both hydrological models and DGVMs have their limitations as well as advantages for addressing this question. In this study a biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) is developed by coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD), with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at basin scale and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The application and validation of the LPJH model to four basins representing a variety of climate and vegetation conditions shows that the performance of LPJH is much better than that of the original LPJ and is similar to that of stand-alone hydrological models for monthly and daily runoff simulation at the basin scale. It is argued that the LPJH model gives more reasonable hydrological simulation since it considers both the spatial variability of soil moisture and vegetation dynamics, which make the runoff generation mechanism more reliable. As an example, it is shown that changing atmospheric CO 2 content alone would result in runoff increases in humid basins and decreases in arid basins. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore LPJH potentially provides a powerful tool for simulating vegetation response to climate changes in the biosphere hydrological cycle.

Impacts of Irrigation and Climate Change on Water Security: Using Stakeholder Engagement to Inform a Process-based Crop Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, A.; Flores, A. N.; Han, B.; Som Castellano, R.; Steimke, A.

2016-12-01

Irrigation is an essential component for agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions, accounting for a majority of global freshwater withdrawals used for human consumption. Since climate change affects both the spatiotemporal demand and availability of water in irrigated areas, agricultural productivity and water efficiency depend critically on how producers adapt and respond to climate change. It is necessary, therefore, to understand the coevolution and feedbacks between humans and agricultural systems. Integration of social and hydrologic processes can be achieved by active engagement with local stakeholders and applying their expertise to models of coupled human-environment systems. Here, we use a process based crop simulation model (EPIC) informed by stakeholder engagement to determine how both farm management and climate change influence regional agricultural water use and production in the Lower Boise River Basin (LBRB) of southwest Idaho. Specifically, we investigate how a shift from flood to sprinkler fed irrigation would impact a watershed's overall agricultural water use under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The LBRB comprises about 3500 km2, of which 20% is dedicated to irrigated crops and another 40% to grass/pasture grazing land. Via interviews of stakeholders in the LBRB, we have determined that approximately 70% of irrigated lands in the region are flood irrigated. We model four common crops produced in the LBRB (alfalfa, corn, winter wheat, and sugarbeets) to investigate both hydrologic and agricultural impacts of irrigation and climatic drivers. Factors influencing farmers' decision to switch from flood to sprinkler irrigation include potential economic benefits, external financial incentives, and providing a buffer against future water shortages. These two irrigation practices are associated with significantly different surface water and energy budgets, and large-scale shifts in practice could substantially impact regional hydrologic budgets. This study reports our methodology to integrate perspectives of irrigators into projections of future water use and crop growth in the LBRB. It also highlights the need for more robust social data collection methods in socio-hydrologic studies.

Projected hydrologic changes in monsoon-dominated Himalaya Mountain basins with changing climate and deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, Ram P.; White, Joseph D.; Alexander, Sara E.

2015-06-01

In mountain headwaters, climate and land use changes affect short and long term site water budgets with resultant impacts on landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture. To project hydrologic change associated with climate and land use changes in the Himalaya Mountains, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) calibrated for the Tamor and Seti River basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal. Future climate change was modeled using averaged temperature and precipitation for 2080 derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B and A2) of 16 global circulation models (GCMs). Land use change was modeled spatially and included expansion of (1) agricultural land, (2) grassland, and (3) human settlement area that were produced by considering existing land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use type. From these simulations, higher annual stream discharge was found for all GCM-derived scenarios compared to a baseline simulation with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. On seasonal basis, we assessed higher precipitation during monsoon season in all scenarios that corresponded with higher stream discharge of 72 and 68% for Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. This effect appears to be geographically important with higher influence in the eastern Tamor basin potentially due to longer and stronger monsoonal period of that region. However, we projected minimal changes in stream discharge for the land use scenarios potentially due to higher water transmission to groundwater reservoirs associated with fractures of the Himalaya Mountains rather than changes in surface runoff. However, when combined the effects of climate and land use changes, discharge was moderately increased indicating counteracting mechanisms of hydrologic yield in these mountains. Better understanding of potential hydrologic response to climate and land use changes in these basins might be crucial for national and transnational water management.

Derivation of thermokarst distribution based on climate and surface characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöngaßner, Thomas; Hagemann, Stefan

2013-04-01

About one quarter of the northern hemisphere is covered by permafrost. Permafrost areas inherit a high amount of deposited soil organic carbon, which represents approximately 50% of the estimated global below-ground organic carbon pool and is more than twice the size of the current atmospheric carbon pool. A destabilization due to the expected amplitude of future Arctic climate warming would lead to a global-scale feedback mechanism. This feedback comprise interactions between snow, permafrost, hydrology, and ecosystems, which include altered energy and water fluxes between atmosphere and land surface. The representation of permafrost related processes in GCMs and ESMs is still rudimentary and needs to be extended to improve the climate model performance in high latitudes. In this sense thermokarst processes should be included into JSBACH, the land-surface component of MPI-ESM. Initially, a 1-D scheme of thermal dynamics will be implemented into JSBACH, which fits into very recent developments with regards to permafrost melting and freezing (T. Blome; Ekici et al., in prep.) and a dynamical wetland scheme (Stacke and Hagemann, 2012). Structural improvements and new parametrization of the model are required with regard to heat and water flow (physical processes) and carbon and nitrogen dynamics (bio-geochemical processes). The implementation of a thermokarst module is one task within the EU project PAGE21 and is a joint activity between MPI-M Hamburg and MPI-BGC Jena. Thermokarst changes are coupled thermal-hydrological processes, which lead to an enhanced thawing of ice-rich permafrost on local-to-regional scales, where the soil structure is characterized by segregated ice and ice-wedges. They result in severe consequences for soil structure, hydrology, and depletion of soil organic carbon. Thermokarst affected areas appear as a very uneven surface of hummocks and marshy hollows. The initial heat balance of the surface is disturbed by different trigger mechanisms, which cause the ground ice to melt and the soil to subside into depressions due to developing cavities in the interior. The depressions fill up with melting and precipitating water. Since deeper water bodies do not freeze up entirely, the annual mean surface temperature increases in the soil beneath. Therefore permafrost thawing is continued and depressions grow further due to soil subsidence and slope wash at the margins until a new soil surface heat balance is reached. Here I'd like to give a short overview and an introduction into the ongoing thermokarst process in the Arctic tundra. The main focus will be on investigating the actual distribution of thermokarst lakes in the high northern latitudes. The development of thermokarst lakes depends on soil parameters like ice content, surface temperature, soil texture as well as on climate states like monthly mean temperature, precipitation, winter snow depth. They contribute to the surface heat balance and may serve as a measure for thermokarst potential. Since thermokarst mechanism is a small-scale process of 10-1000m in spatial extent, it needs to be parametrized for GCM applications on ESM grid scale. Thus, we want to derive the thermokarst distribution as a function of climate and soil parameters.

Assessing the Assessment Methods: Climate Change and Hydrologic Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Mizukami, N.; Mendoza, P. A.; Rasmussen, R.; Ikeda, K.; Pruitt, T.; Arnold, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.

2014-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and other water management agencies have an interest in developing reliable, science-based methods for incorporating climate change information into longer-term water resources planning. Such assessments must quantify projections of future climate and hydrology, typically relying on some form of spatial downscaling and bias correction to produce watershed-scale weather information that subsequently drives hydrology and other water resource management analyses (e.g., water demands, water quality, and environmental habitat). Water agencies continue to face challenging method decisions in these endeavors: (1) which downscaling method should be applied and at what resolution; (2) what observational dataset should be used to drive downscaling and hydrologic analysis; (3) what hydrologic model(s) should be used and how should these models be configured and calibrated? There is a critical need to understand the ramification of these method decisions, as they affect the signal and uncertainties produced by climate change assessments and, thus, adaptation planning. This presentation summarizes results from a three-year effort to identify strengths and weaknesses of widely applied methods for downscaling climate projections and assessing hydrologic conditions. Methods were evaluated from two perspectives: historical fidelity, and tendency to modulate a global climate model's climate change signal. On downscaling, four methods were applied at multiple resolutions: statistically using Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation, Bias Correction Constructed Analogs, and Asynchronous Regression; dynamically using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Downscaling results were then used to drive hydrologic analyses over the contiguous U.S. using multiple models (VIC, CLM, PRMS), with added focus placed on case study basins within the Colorado Headwaters. The presentation will identify which types of climate changes are expressed robustly across methods versus those that are sensitive to method choice; which method choices seem relatively more important; and where strategic investments in research and development can substantially improve guidance on climate change provided to water managers.

Modeling the Hydrological Regime of Turkana Lake (Kenya, Ethiopia) by Combining Spatially Distributed Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, D.; Kaelin, A.; Peleg, N.; Fatichi, S.; Molnar, P.; Roques, C.; Longuevergne, L.; Burlando, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrological modeling in poorly gauged basins can benefit from the use of remote sensing datasets although there are challenges associated with the mismatch in spatial and temporal scales between catchment scale hydrological models and remote sensing products. We model the hydrological processes and long-term water budget of the Lake Turkana catchment, a transboundary basin between Kenya and Ethiopia, by integrating several remote sensing products into a spatially distributed and physically explicit model, Topkapi-ETH. Lake Turkana is the world largest desert lake draining a catchment of 145'500 km2. It has three main contributing rivers: the Omo river, which contributes most of the annual lake inflow, the Turkwel river, and the Kerio rivers, which contribute the remaining part. The lake levels have shown great variations in the last decades due to long-term climate fluctuations and the regulation of three reservoirs, Gibe I, II, and III, which significantly alter the hydrological seasonality. Another large reservoir is planned and may be built in the next decade, generating concerns about the fate of Lake Turkana in the long run because of this additional anthropogenic pressure and increasing evaporation driven by climate change. We consider different remote sensing datasets, i.e., TRMM-V7 for precipitation, MERRA-2 for temperature, as inputs to the spatially distributed hydrological model. We validate the simulation results with other remote sensing datasets, i.e., GRACE for total water storage anomalies, GLDAS-NOAH for soil moisture, ERA-Interim/Land for surface runoff, and TOPEX/Poseidon for satellite altimetry data. Results highlight how different remote sensing products can be integrated into a hydrological modeling framework accounting for their relative uncertainties. We also carried out simulations with the artificial reservoirs planned in the north part of the catchment and without any reservoirs, to assess their impacts on the catchment hydrological regime and the Lake Turkana level variability.

An Analytical Solution for the Impact of Vegetation Changes on Hydrological Partitioning Within the Budyko Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Shulei; Yang, Yuting; McVicar, Tim R.; Yang, Dawen

2018-01-01

Vegetation change is a critical factor that profoundly affects the terrestrial water cycle. Here we derive an analytical solution for the impact of vegetation changes on hydrological partitioning within the Budyko framework. This is achieved by deriving an analytical expression between leaf area index (LAI) change and the Budyko land surface parameter (n) change, through the combination of a steady state ecohydrological model with an analytical carbon cost-benefit model for plant rooting depth. Using China where vegetation coverage has experienced dramatic changes over the past two decades as a study case, we quantify the impact of LAI changes on the hydrological partitioning during 1982-2010 and predict the future influence of these changes for the 21st century using climate model projections. Results show that LAI change exhibits an increasing importance on altering hydrological partitioning as climate becomes drier. In semiarid and arid China, increased LAI has led to substantial streamflow reductions over the past three decades (on average -8.5% in 1990s and -11.7% in 2000s compared to the 1980s baseline), and this decreasing trend in streamflow is projected to continue toward the end of this century due to predicted LAI increases. Our result calls for caution regarding the large-scale revegetation activities currently being implemented in arid and semiarid China, which may result in serious future water scarcity issues here. The analytical model developed here is physically based and suitable for simultaneously assessing both vegetation changes and climate change induced changes to streamflow globally.

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, A. T.; Cannon, A. J.

2015-06-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e., correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e., tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3 day peak flow and 7 day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational datasets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational dataset. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7 day low flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational dataset. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis datasets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical datasets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Hydrologic extremes - an intercomparison of multiple gridded statistical downscaling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Arelia T.; Cannon, Alex J.

2016-04-01

Gridded statistical downscaling methods are the main means of preparing climate model data to drive distributed hydrological models. Past work on the validation of climate downscaling methods has focused on temperature and precipitation, with less attention paid to the ultimate outputs from hydrological models. Also, as attention shifts towards projections of extreme events, downscaling comparisons now commonly assess methods in terms of climate extremes, but hydrologic extremes are less well explored. Here, we test the ability of gridded downscaling models to replicate historical properties of climate and hydrologic extremes, as measured in terms of temporal sequencing (i.e. correlation tests) and distributional properties (i.e. tests for equality of probability distributions). Outputs from seven downscaling methods - bias correction constructed analogues (BCCA), double BCCA (DBCCA), BCCA with quantile mapping reordering (BCCAQ), bias correction spatial disaggregation (BCSD), BCSD using minimum/maximum temperature (BCSDX), the climate imprint delta method (CI), and bias corrected CI (BCCI) - are used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the snow-dominated Peace River basin, British Columbia. Outputs are tested using split-sample validation on 26 climate extremes indices (ClimDEX) and two hydrologic extremes indices (3-day peak flow and 7-day peak flow). To characterize observational uncertainty, four atmospheric reanalyses are used as climate model surrogates and two gridded observational data sets are used as downscaling target data. The skill of the downscaling methods generally depended on reanalysis and gridded observational data set. However, CI failed to reproduce the distribution and BCSD and BCSDX the timing of winter 7-day low-flow events, regardless of reanalysis or observational data set. Overall, DBCCA passed the greatest number of tests for the ClimDEX indices, while BCCAQ, which is designed to more accurately resolve event-scale spatial gradients, passed the greatest number of tests for hydrologic extremes. Non-stationarity in the observational/reanalysis data sets complicated the evaluation of downscaling performance. Comparing temporal homogeneity and trends in climate indices and hydrological model outputs calculated from downscaled reanalyses and gridded observations was useful for diagnosing the reliability of the various historical data sets. We recommend that such analyses be conducted before such data are used to construct future hydro-climatic change scenarios.

Surface water change as a significant contributor to global evapotranspiration change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, S.; Song, C.

2017-12-01

Water comprises a critical component of global/regional hydrological and biogeochemical cycles and is essential to all organisms including humans. In the past several decades, climate change has intensified the hydrological cycle, with significant implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration (ET) as a linking mechanism between land surface and atmosphere is central to the water cycle and an excellent indicator of the intensity of water cycle. Knowledge of the temporal changes of ET is crucial for accurately estimating global or regional water budgets and better understanding climate and hydrological interactions. While studies have examined changes in global ET, they were conducted using a constant land and surface water (SW) area. However, as many studies have found that global SW is very dynamic and their surface areas have generally been increasing since the 1980s. The conversion from land to water and vice versa significantly changes the local ET since water bodies evaporate at a rate that can be much higher than that of the land. Here, we quantify the global changes in ET caused by such land-water conversion using remotely-sensed SW area and various ET and potential ET products. New SW and lost SW between circa-1985 and circa-2015 were derived from remote sensing and were used to modify the local ET estimates. We found an increase in ET in all continents as consistent with the net increase in SW area. The increasing SW area lead to a global increase in ET by 30.38 ± 5.28 km3/yr. This is a significant contribution when compared to the 92.95 km3/yr/yr increase in ET between 1982-1997 and 103.43 km3/yr/yr decrease between 1998-2008 by Jung et al., (2010) assuming a constant SW. The results enhance our understanding of the water fluxes between the land and atmosphere and supplement land water budget estimates. We conclude that changes in SW lead to a significant change in global ET that cannot be neglected in global ET trend studies and should also be included in global water budget studies.

Comparison of hydrological signal in polar motion excitation with those based on the FGOALS-g2 climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wińska, Małgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

2016-04-01

Our investigations are focused on the influence of different land hydrosphere surface parameters (precipitation, evaporation, total runoff, soil moisture, accumulated snow) on polar motion excitation functions at seasonal and nonseasonal timescales. Here these different variables are obtained from the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model, Grid point Version 2 (FGOALS-g2), which is a climate model from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5); with CMIP5 being composed of separate component models of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. In this study Terrestrial Water Storage TWS changes were determined as: differences between the precipitation, evaporation and total surface runoff content, and as the total soil moisture content being a sum of soil moisture and snowfall flux changes. We compare the model-based data with those from estimates of the Equivalent Water Thickness determined by GRACE satellite observations from the Center for Space Research (CSR). The transfer of angular momentum from global geophysical fluids to the solid Earth is described by the equatorial components χ1 and χ2 of the polar motion excitation functions. Observationally, these so-called geodetic excitation functions of polar motion can be determined on the basis of the equations of motion by using observed x, y components of the pole. The second-degree, first-order coefficients of the Earth gravity field are proportional to variations of the equatorial component χ1, χ2 of the series of the gravimetric excitation function of polar motion. This gravimetric function can be compared with the mass term of geodetic excitation of polar motion. Our analysis comprises (1) determinations and comparisons of regional patterns of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion, and (2) comparison of the global hydrological function determined from the FGOALS-g2 and GRACE data with a hydrological signal in the geodetic excitation function of polar motion, determined as a residual geodetic and atmospheric plus oceanic excitations.

Hydrological and depositional processes associated with recent glacier recession in Yanamarey catchment, Cordillera Blanca (Peru).

PubMed

López-Moreno, J I; Valero-Garcés, B; Mark, B; Condom, T; Revuelto, J; Azorín-Molina, C; Bazo, J; Frugone, M; Vicente-Serrano, S M; Alejo-Cochachin, J

2017-02-01

In this study, we investigate changes in the glaciated surface and the formation of lakes in the headwater of the Querococha watershed in Cordillera Blanca (Peru) using 24 Landsat images from 1975 to 2014. Information of glacier retreat was integrated with available climate data, the first survey of recent depositional dynamics in proglacial Yanamarey Lake (4600m a.s.l.), and a relatively short hydrological record (2002-2014) at the outlet of Yanamarey Lake. A statistically significant temperature warming (0.21°C decade -1 for mean annual temperature) has been detected in the region, and it caused a reduction of the glacierized area since 1975 from 3.5 to 1.4km -2 . New small lakes formed in the deglaciated areas, increasing the flooded area from1.8ha in 1976 to 2.8ha in 2014. A positive correlation between annual rates of glacier recession and runoff was found. Sediment cores revealed a high sedimentation rate (>1cmyr -1 ) and two contrasted facies, suggesting a shift toward a reduction of meltwater inputs and higher hydrological variability likely due to an increasing role of precipitation on runoff during the last decades. Despite the age control uncertainties, the main transition likely occurred around 1998-2000, correlating with the end of the phase with maximum warming rates and glacier retreat during the 1980s and 1990s, and the slowing down of expansion of surface lake-covered surface. With this hydrological - paleolimnological approach we have documented the association between recent climate variability and glacier recession and the rapid transfer of hydroclimate signal to depositional and geochemical processes in high elevation Andean environments. This, study also alerts about water quality risks as proglacial lakes act as secondary reservoirs that trap trace and minor elements in high altitude basins. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of climate change upon hydrology and agriculture in the Indrawati Basin, Nepal.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palazzoli, Irene; Bocchiola, Daniele; Nana, Ester; Maskey, Shreedhar; Uhlenbrook, Stefan

2014-05-01

Agriculture is sensitive to climate change, especially to temperature and precipitation changes. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the climate change impacts upon rain-fed crops production in the Indrawati river basin, Nepal. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model was used to model hydrology and cropping systems in the catchment, and to predict the influence of different climate change scenarios therein. Daily weather data collected from about 13 weather stations during 4 decades were used to constrain the SWAT model, and data from two hydrometric stations used to calibrate/validate it. Then management practices (crop calendar) were applied to specific Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) for the main crops of the region, rice, corn and wheat. Manual calibration of crop production was also carried, against values of crop yield in the area from literature. The calibrated and validated model was further applied to assess the impact of three future climate change scenarios (RCPs) upon the crop productivity in the region. Three climate models (GCMs) were adopted, each with three RCPs (2.5, 4.5, 8.5). Hence, impacts of climate change were assessed considering three time windows, namely a baseline period (1995-2004), the middle of century (2045-2054) and the end of century (2085-2094). For each GCM and RCP future hydrology and yield was compared to baseline scenario. The results displayed slightly modified hydrological cycle, and somewhat small variation in crop production, variable with models and RCPs, and for crop type, the largest being for wheat. Keywords: Climate Change, Nepal, hydrological cycle, crop yield.

The Development and Validation of a New Land Surface Model for Regional and Global Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch-Stieglitz, Marc

1995-11-01

A new land-surface scheme intended for use in mesoscale and global climate models has been developed and validated. The ground scheme consists of 6 soil layers. Diffusion and a modified tipping bucket model govern heat and water flow respectively. A 3 layer snow model has been incorporated into a modified BEST vegetation scheme. TOPMODEL equations and Digital Elevation Model data are used to generate baseflow which supports lowland saturated zones. Soil moisture heterogeneity represented by saturated lowlands subsequently impacts watershed evapotranspiration, the partitioning of surface fluxes, and the development of the storm hydrograph. Five years of meteorological and hydrological data from the Sleepers river watershed located in the eastern highlands of Vermont where winter snow cover is significant were then used to drive and validate the new scheme. Site validation data were sufficient to evaluate model performance with regard to various aspects of the watershed water balance, including snowpack growth/ablation, the spring snowmelt hydrograph, storm hydrographs, and the seasonal development of watershed evapotranspiration and soil moisture. By including topographic effects, not only are the main spring hydrographs and individual storm hydrographs adequately resolved, but the mechanisms generating runoff are consistent with current views of hydrologic processes. The seasonal movement of the mean water table depth and the saturated area of the watershed are consistent with site data and the overall model hydroclimatology, including the surface fluxes, seems reasonable.

Oscillations in land surface hydrological cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labat, D.

2006-02-01

Hydrological cycle is the perpetual movement of water throughout the various component of the global Earth's system. Focusing on the land surface component of this cycle, the determination of the succession of dry and humid periods is of high importance with respect to water resources management but also with respect to global geochemical cycles. This knowledge requires a specified estimation of recent fluctuations of the land surface cycle at continental and global scales. Our approach leans towards a new estimation of freshwater discharge to oceans from 1875 to 1994 as recently proposed by Labat et al. [Labat, D., Goddéris, Y., Probst, JL, Guyot, JL, 2004. Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources, 631-642]. Wavelet analyses of the annual freshwater discharge time series reveal an intermittent multiannual variability (4- to 8-y, 14- to 16-y and 20- to 25-y fluctuations) and a persistent multidecadal 30- to 40-y variability. Continent by continent, reasonable relationships between land-water cycle oscillations and climate forcing (such as ENSO, NAO or sea surface temperature) are proposed even though if such relationships or correlations remain very complex. The high intermittency of interannual oscillations and the existence of persistent multidecadal fluctuations make prediction difficult for medium-term variability of droughts and high-flows, but lead to a more optimistic diagnostic for long-term fluctuations prediction.

Assessing Water Level Changes in Lake, Reservoir, Wetland, and River Systems with Remote Sensing Tools and Hydrological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricko, M.; Birkett, C. M.; Beckley, B. D.

2017-12-01

The NASA/USDA Global Reservoir and Lake Monitor (G-REALM) offers multi-mission satellite radar altimetry derived surface water level products for a subset of large reservoirs, lakes, and wetlands. These products complement the in situ networks by providing stage information at un-gauged locations, and filling existing data gaps. The availability of both satellite-based rainfall (e.g., TRMM, GPCP) and surface water level products offers great opportunities to estimate and monitor additional hydrologic properties of the lake/reservoir systems. A simple water balance model relating the net freshwater flux over a catchment basin to the lake/reservoir level has been previously utilized (Ricko et al., 2011). The applicability of this approach enables the construction of a longer record of surface water level, i.e. improving the climate data record. As instrument technology and data availability evolve, this method can be used to estimate the water level of a greater number of water bodies, and a greater number of much smaller targets. In addition, such information can improve water balance estimation in different lake, reservoir, wetland, and river systems, and be very useful for assessment of improved prediction of surface water availability. Connections to climatic variations on inter-annual to inter-decadal time-scales are explored here, with a focus on a future ability to predict changes in storage volume for water resources or natural hazards concerns.

Hydrologic vulnerability of tribal reservation lands across the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C., Jr.; Leibowitz, S. G.; Sawicz, K. A.; Comeleo, R. L.; Stratton, L. E.

2017-12-01

We apply the hydrologic landscapes (HL) concept to assess the hydrologic vulnerability to climate of the United States (U.S.) with special emphasis on tribal lands. The basic assumption of the HL approach is that catchments that share similar physical and climatic characteristics are expected to have similar hydrologic characteristics. We map climate vulnerability by integrating a retrospective analysis of historical climate and hydrology into the HL approach, comparing this baseline of variability with future projections of temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, climatic moisture, surplus water, and seasonality of the water surplus. Projections that are not within two standard deviations of the historical decadal average contribute to the vulnerability index for each metric. This allows stakeholders and/or water resource managers to understand the potential impacts of future conditions. The resulting vulnerability maps show that temperature and potential evapotranspiration are consistently projected to have high vulnerability indices across the U.S. including all tribal reservations. Precipitation vulnerability is not as spatially-uniform as temperature. Most areas with snow are projected to experience significant changes in future snow accumulation. The seasonality vulnerability map shows that mountainous areas in the West are most prone to changes in seasonality. This paper illustrates how the HL approach can help assess climatic and hydrologic vulnerability for disadvantaged groups across the U.S. By combining the HL concept and climate vulnerability analyses, we provide an approach that can assist tribal resource managers to perform vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans, which is a major priority for the tribes nationwide.

The Platte River Hydrologic Observatory (PRIVHO)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, F.; Ramirez, J. A.; Thurow, T. L.

2004-12-01

The Platte River Hydrologic Observatory (PRIVHO), located within the Platte River Basin, of the U.S. central Great Plains, affords excellent interdisciplinary and multi-disciplinary research opportunities for scientists to examine the impacts of scaling, to investigate forcing feedbacks and coupling of various interconnected hydrological, geological, climatological and biological systems, and to test the applicability and limits of prediction in keeping with all five of CUAHSI's priority science criteria; linking hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, sustainability of water resources, hydrologic and ecosystem interactions, hydrologic extremes, and fate and transport of contaminants. In addition, PRIVHO is uniquely positioned to investigate many human dimension questions such as those related to interstate and intrastate conflicts over water use, evolution of water policy and law in the wake of advancing science, societal and economic changes that are driven by water use, availability and management, and human impacts on climate and land use changes. The Platte River traverses several important environmental gradients, including temperature and precipitation-to-evaporation ratio, is underlain by the High Plains Aquifer under much of its reach, crosses a number of terrestrial ecoregions, and in central Nebraska, serves as a vital link in the Central Flyway, providing habitat for 300 species of migratory birds and many threatened or endangered species. The Platte River flows through metropolitan, urban and agricultural settings and is impacted by both point and non-point pollution. The Platte River is one of the most over-appropriated rivers in the country with 15 major dams, hundreds of small reservoirs, and thousands of irrigation wells. The river provides municipal and industrial water supplies for about 3.5 million people, irrigation water for millions of acres of farmland, and generates millions of dollars of hydroelectric power. PRIVHO will allow researchers to address science questions related to; the impacts of drought, managed agriculture, and water resource development and use on riparian ecosystem health, hyporheic flow dynamics and contaminant attenuation within braided streams, groundwater-surface water interaction, and the influences of climate modes such as ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc. on river hydrological dynamics. Infrastructure is in place within PRIVHO to collect core hydrologic data including precipitation, stream discharge, groundwater levels, precipitation, surface and groundwater quality, soil moisture, remotely sensed water quality, vegetative cover data, soil moisture and vegetative wetness data, and information related to migratory waterfowl, terrestrial animals and aquatic organisms.

A lake-centric geospatial database to guide research and inform management decisions in an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska experiencing climate and land-use changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.; Whitman, Matthew S.; Nigro, Debora A.; Nitze, Ingmar; Beaver, John; Gadeke, Anne; Zuck, Callie; Liljedahl, Anna K.; Daanen, Ronald; Torvinen, Eric; Fritz, Stacey; Grosse, Guido

2017-01-01

Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.

Precipitation Recycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.; Bras, Rafael L.

1996-01-01

The water cycle regulates and reflects natural variability in climate at the regional and global scales. Large-scale human activities that involve changes in land cover, such as tropical deforestation, are likely to modify climate through changes in the water cycle. In order to understand, and hopefully be able to predict, the extent of these potential global and regional changes, we need first to understand how the water cycle works. In the past, most of the research in hydrology focused on the land branch of the water cycle, with little attention given to the atmospheric branch. The study of precipitation recycling which is defined as the contribution of local evaporation to local precipitation, aims at understanding hydrologic processes in the atmospheric branch of the water cycle. Simply stated, any study on precipitation recycling is about how the atmospheric branch of the water cycle works, namely, what happens to water vapor molecules after they evaporate from the surface, and where will they precipitate?

Post-wildland fire desertification: Can rehabilitation treatments make a difference?

Treesearch

Daniel G. Neary

2009-01-01

Desertification, caused by land degradation as opposed to the immediate creation of classical deserts, is of prime concern in the 21st century. As a result of human activities and climate change, the land loses its proper hydrologic function and biological productivity. Desertification affects 33 % of the earth's surface and over a billion people. Fire-related...

Hydrology and water quality of forested lands in eastern North Carolina

Treesearch

G.M. Chescheir; M.E. Lebo; D.M. Amatya; J. Hughes; J.W. Gilliam; R.W. Skaggs; R.B. Herrmann

2003-01-01

Nonpoint sources of nutrients (NPS) are a widespread source of surface water pollution throu&out the United States. Characterizing the sources of this NPS nutrient loading is challenging due to variation in land management practices, physioyaphic setting, site conditions such as soil type, and climatic variation. For nutrients, there is the added challenge of...

Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

Treesearch

D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

2011-01-01

The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.;

Variability in Terrestrial Water Storage and its effect on polar motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Śliwińska, Justyna; Nastula, Jolanta

2017-04-01

Explaining the hydrological part of observed polar motion excitation has been a major challenge over a dozen years. The terrestrial water storage (TWS) excitation of polar motion - hydrological angular momentum (HAM), has been investigated widely using global hydrological models mainly at seasonal timescales. Unfortunately, the results from the models do not fully explain the role of hydrological signal in polar motion excitation. The determination of TWS from the Earth's gravity field observations represents an indirect approach for estimating land hydrology. Throughout the past decade, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) has given an unprecedented view on global variations in Terrestrial Water Storage. Our investigations are focused on the influence of Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) variations obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission on polar motion excitation functions at decadal and inter-annual timescales. The global and regional trend, seasonal cycle as well as some extremes in TWS variations are considered here. Here TWS are obtained from the monthly mass grids land GRACE Tellus data: GRACE CSR RL05, GRACE GFZ RL05 and GRACE JPL RL05. As a comparative dataset, we also use TWS estimates determined from the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). GRACE data and state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate models allow us to show the variability of hydrological part of polar motion under climate changes. Our studies include two steps: first, the determination and comparisons of regional patterns of TWS obtained from GRACE data and climate models, and second, comparison of the regional and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion with a hydrological signal in the geodetic excitation functions of polar motion.

How do the methodological choices of your climate change study affect your results? A hydrologic case study across the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.

2017-12-01

We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest river to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, F.; Cuo, L.; Wu, H.; Mantua, N.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2009-12-01

The climate of the Pacific Northwest (PNW - which we define as the Columbia River basin and watersheds draining to the Oregon and Washington coasts) is expected to warm by approximately 0.3°C per decade in the next 100 years based on the IPCC the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) results. PNW hydrology is particularly sensitive to a warming climate because of the dominant role of snowmelt in seasonal streamflow. Timing shifts in seasonality of flows, peak discharge, and base flows will impact water resource management, regional electrical energy production, and freshwater ecosystems. In this work we update previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology using a macroscale hydrology model driven by simulations of temperature and precipitation downscaled from runs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A1B) in the 21st century. The hydrology model is implemented at 1/16th degree spatial resolution over the entire PNW. A (statistical) bias-correction and spatial disaggregation downscaling approach is used for translating the transient monthly climate model output into continuous daily forcings for the hydrologic analysis. We evaluate projected changes in snow water equivalent, seasonal streamflow, and frequency of peak low flows over a set of case study watersheds in the region. We also compare these hydrologic projections with previous analysis based on delta downscaling method over the PNW. This research is part of a project investigating climate change impacts on the future of wild Pacific salmon, and is a pilot effort to investigate the hydrologic sensitivity of salmon bearing watersheds around the entire North Pacific Rim.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Application of MODFLOW’s farm process to California’s Central Valley

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faunt, Claudia; Hanson, Randall T.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Belitz, Kenneth

2008-01-01

landscape processes. The FMP provides coupled simulation of the ground-water and surface-water components of the hydrologic cycle for irrigated and non-irrigated areas. A dynamic allocation of ground-water recharge and ground-water pumping is simulated on the basis of residual crop-water demand after surface-water deliveries and root uptake from shallow ground water. The FMP links with the Streamflow Routing Package SFR1) to facilitate the simulated conveyance of surface-water deliveries. Ground-water Pumpage through both single-aquifer and multi-node wells, irrigation return flow, and variable irrigation efficiencies also are simulated by the FMP. The simulated deliveries and ground-water pumpage in the updated model reflect climatic differences, differences among defined water-balance regions, and changes in the waterdelivery system, during the 1961–2003 simulation period. The model is designed to accept forecasts from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to simulate the potential effects on surface-water delivery, ground-water pumpage, and ground-water storage in response to climate change. The model provides a detailed transient analysis of changes in ground-water availability in relation to climatic variability, urbanization, and changes in irrigated agriculture.

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Vizcaino, Miren; Fyke, Jeremy Garmeson; ...

2016-02-01

Here, we present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ~1° in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large-scale atmospheric circulation and near-surface climate, but fails to simulate the recent expansion of Antarctic sea ice. The present-day Antarctic ice sheet SMB equals 2280 ± 131Gtyear –1, which concurs with existing independent estimates of AIS SMB. When forced by two CMIP5 climate change scenarios (high mitigation scenario RCP2.6 and high-emission scenariomore » RCP8.5), CESM projects an increase of Antarctic ice sheet SMB of about 70 Gtyear –1 per degree warming. This increase is driven by enhanced snowfall, which is partially counteracted by more surface melt and runoff along the ice sheet’s edges. This intensifying hydrological cycle is predominantly driven by atmospheric warming, which increases (1) the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere, (2) oceanic source region evaporation, and (3) summer AIS cloud liquid water content.« less

The Role of Surface Water for the Branching Geometry of Mars' Channel Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seybold, H. F.; Rothman, D.; Kirchner, J. W.

2016-12-01

The controversy over the origin of Mars' channel networks is almost as old as their discovery 150 years ago. In recent decades, new Mars probe missions have revealed detailed network structures, and new studies suggest that Mars once had an active hydrologic cycle. But how this water flowed and how it could have carved these huge channel networks remains unclear. A recent analysis of high-resolution data for the Continental United States suggests that climate leaves a characteristic imprint in the branching geometry of stream networks: arid regions dominated by overland or near-surface flows have much narrower branching angles than humid regions with greater groundwater recharge. Based on this result we analyze the channel networks of Mars, and find that their geometry resembles those created by near-surface and overland flows on Earth. This result gives additional support to the hypothesis that Mars once had a more active hydrologic cycle, with liquid water flowing over its surface.

The hydrologic response of Mars to the onset of a colder climate and to the thermal evolution of its early crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, S. M.

1993-01-01

Morphologic similarities between the Martian valley networks and terrestrial runoff channel have been cited as evidence that the early Martian climate was originally more Earth-like, with temperatures and pressures high enough to permit the precipitation of H2O as snow or rain. Although unambiguous evidence that Mars once possessed a warmer, wetter climate is lacking, a study of the transition from such conditions to the present climate can benefit our understanding of both the early development of the cryosphere and the various ways in which the current subsurface hydrology of Mars is likely to differ from that of the Earth. Viewed from this perspective, the early hydrologic evolution of Mars is essentially identical to considering the hydrologic response of the Earth to the onset of a global subfreezing climate.

Hydrological Modeling in the Bull Run Watershed in Support of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nijssen, B.; Chiao, T. H.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Vano, J. A.

2016-12-01

Hydrologic models with varying complexities and structures are commonly used to evaluate the impact of climate change on future hydrology. While the uncertainties in future climate projections are well documented, uncertainties in streamflow projections associated with hydrologic model structure and parameter estimation have received less attention. In this study, we implemented and calibrated three hydrologic models (the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC)) for the Bull Run watershed in northern Oregon using consistent data sources and best practice calibration protocols. The project was part of a Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project with the Portland Water Bureau (PWB) under the umbrella of the Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA). Ultimately PWB would use the model evaluation to select a model to perform in-house climate change analysis for Bull Run Watershed. This presentation focuses on the experimental design of the comparison project, project findings and the collaboration between the team at the University of Washington and at PWB. After calibration, the three models showed similar capability to reproduce seasonal and inter-annual variations in streamflow, but differed in their ability to capture extreme events. Furthermore, the annual and seasonal hydrologic sensitivities to changes in climate forcings differed among models, potentially attributable to different model representations of snow and vegetation processes.

Understanding and seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Xing; Zhang, Miao; Wang, Linying; Zhou, Tian

2017-11-01

Hydrological drought is not only caused by natural hydroclimate variability but can also be directly altered by human interventions including reservoir operation, irrigation, groundwater exploitation, etc. Understanding and forecasting of hydrological drought in the Anthropocene are grand challenges due to complicated interactions among climate, hydrology and humans. In this paper, five decades (1961-2010) of naturalized and observed streamflow datasets are used to investigate hydrological drought characteristics in a heavily managed river basin, the Yellow River basin in north China. Human interventions decrease the correlation between hydrological and meteorological droughts, and make the hydrological drought respond to longer timescales of meteorological drought. Due to large water consumptions in the middle and lower reaches, there are 118-262 % increases in the hydrological drought frequency, up to 8-fold increases in the drought severity, 21-99 % increases in the drought duration and the drought onset is earlier. The non-stationarity due to anthropogenic climate change and human water use basically decreases the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts and reduces the effect of human interventions on hydrological drought frequency while increasing the effect on drought duration and severity. A set of 29-year (1982-2010) hindcasts from an established seasonal hydrological forecasting system are used to assess the forecast skill of hydrological drought. In the naturalized condition, the climate-model-based approach outperforms the climatology method in predicting the 2001 severe hydrological drought event. Based on the 29-year hindcasts, the former method has a Brier skill score of 11-26 % against the latter for the probabilistic hydrological drought forecasting. In the Anthropocene, the skill for both approaches increases due to the dominant influence of human interventions that have been implicitly incorporated by the hydrological post-processing, while the difference between the two predictions decreases. This suggests that human interventions can outweigh the climate variability for the hydrological drought forecasting in the Anthropocene, and the predictability for human interventions needs more attention.

A hydrologic drying bias in water-resource impact analyses of anthropogenic climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul; Dunne, Krista A.

2017-01-01

For water-resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate-model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC-driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy-only” method). With the exception of the energy-only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep-change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC-induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water-resource impact analyses.

Interaction of hydrological regime and vegetation in a seasonally flooded lake wetland (Poyang Lake) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi

2017-04-01

Hydrological regime has been widely recognized as one of the major forces determining vegetation distribution in seasonally flooded wetlands. To explore the influences of hydrological conditions on the spatial distribution of wetland vegetation, an experimental transect in Poyang Lake wetland, the largest freshwater lake in China, was selected as a study area. In-situ high time frequency observations of climate, soil moisture, groundwater level and surface water level were simultaneously conducted. Vegetation was sampled periodically to obtain species composition, diversity and biomass. Results show that significant hydrological gradient exists along the experimental transect. Both groundwater level and soil moisture demonstrate high correlation with the distribution of different communities of vegetation. Above- and belowground biomass present Gaussian models along the gradient of groundwater depth in growing seasons. It was found that the optimal average groundwater depths for above- and belowground biomass are 0.8 m and 0.5 m, respectively. Numerical simulations using HYDRUS-1D further indicated that the groundwater depths had significant influences on the water usage by vegetation, which suggested the high dependence of wetland vegetation on groundwater, even in a wet climate zone such as Poyang Lake. The study revealed new knowledge on the interaction of hydrological regime and wetland vegetation, and provided scientific support for an integrated management of balancing wetland ecology and water resources development in Poyang Lake, and other lake floodplain wetlands, with strong human interferences.

Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

2013-01-01

We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect interannual changes in total recharge. These results provide insights into the possible impacts of climate change to other regional aquifer systems, and the streams they support, where discharge points represent a range of flow system scales.

Inevitable end-of-21st-century trends toward earlier surface runoff timing in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, M. A.; Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.

2015-12-01

Hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling is used to produce surface runoff timing projections for California's Sierra Nevada, a high-elevation mountain range with significant seasonal snow cover. First, future climate change projections (RCP8.5 forcing scenario, 2081-2100 period) from five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled. These projections reveal that future warming leads to a shift toward earlier snowmelt and surface runoff timing throughout the Sierra Nevada region. Relationships between warming and surface runoff timing from the dynamical simulations are used to build a simple statistical model that mimics the dynamical model's projected surface runoff timing changes given GCM input or other statistically-downscaled input. This statistical model can be used to produce surface runoff timing projections for other GCMs, periods, and forcing scenarios to quantify ensemble-mean changes, uncertainty due to intermodel variability and consequences stemming from choice of forcing scenario. For all CMIP5 GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant trends toward earlier surface runoff timing occur at elevations below 2500m. Thus, we conclude that trends toward earlier surface runoff timing by the end-of-the-21st century are inevitable. The changes to surface runoff timing diagnosed in this study have implications for many dimensions of climate change, including impacts on surface hydrology, water resources, and ecosystems.

Flood-hazard analysis of four headwater streams draining the Argonne National Laboratory property, DuPage County, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soong, David T.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Straub, Timothy D.; Zeeb, Hannah L.

2016-11-22

Results of a flood-hazard analysis conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Argonne National Laboratory, for four headwater streams within the Argonne National Laboratory property indicate that the 1-percent and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability floods would cause multiple roads to be overtopped. Results indicate that most of the effects on the infrastructure would be from flooding of Freund Brook. Flooding on the Northeast and Southeast Drainage Ways would be limited to overtopping of one road crossing for each of those streams. The Northwest Drainage Way would be the least affected with flooding expected to occur in open grass or forested areas.The Argonne Site Sustainability Plan outlined the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models and the creation of flood-plain maps of the existing site conditions as a first step in addressing resiliency to possible climate change impacts as required by Executive Order 13653 “Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change.” The Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN is the hydrologic model used in the study, and the Hydrologic Engineering Center‒River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) is the hydraulic model. The model results were verified by comparing simulated water-surface elevations to observed water-surface elevations measured at a network of five crest-stage gages on the four study streams. The comparison between crest-stage gage and simulated elevations resulted in an average absolute difference of 0.06 feet and a maximum difference of 0.19 feet.In addition to the flood-hazard model development and mapping, a qualitative stream assessment was conducted to evaluate stream channel and substrate conditions in the study reaches. This information can be used to evaluate erosion potential.

Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal

1998-01-01

The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Clearwater River, Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yearsley, J. R.; Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.

2016-12-01

Dworshak Dam in northern Idaho impounds the waters of the North Fork of the Clearwater River, creating a reservoir of approximately 4.278 km3 at full pool elevation. The dam's primary purpose is for flood control and hydroelectric power generation. It also provides important water quality benefits by releasing cold water into the Clearwater River during the summer when conditions become critical for migrating endangered species of salmon. Changes in the climate may have an impact on the ability of Dworshak Dam and Reservoir to provide these benefits. To investigate the potential for extreme outcomes that would limit cold water releases from Dworshak Reservoir and compromise the fishery, we implemented a system of hydrologic and water temperature models that simulate daily-averaged water temperatures in both the riverine and reservoir environments. We used the macroscale hydrologic model, VIC, to simulate land surface water and energy fluxes, the one-dimensional, time-dependent stream temperature model, RBM, to simulate river temperatures and a modified version of CEQUAL-W2 to simulate water temperatures in Dworshak Reservoir. A long-term hydrologically based gridded data set of meteorological forcing provided the input for comparing model results with available observations of flow and water temperature. For purposes of investigating the impacts of climate change, we used the results from ten of the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate change models scenarios in conjunction with the estimates of anthropogenic inputs of climate change gases from two representative concentration pathways (RCP). We compared the simulated results associated with a range of outcomes at critical river locations from the climate scenarios with existing conditions assuming that the reservoir would be operated under a rule curve based on the average reservoir elevation for the period 2006-2015 rule curve and for power demands represented by that same period.

Towards large scale modelling of wetland water dynamics in northern basins.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedinotti, V.; Sapriza, G.; Stone, L.; Davison, B.; Pietroniro, A.; Quinton, W. L.; Spence, C.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Understanding the hydrological behaviour of low topography, wetland-dominated sub-arctic areas is one major issue needed for the improvement of large scale hydrological models. These wet organic soils cover a large extent of Northern America and have a considerable impact on the rainfall-runoff response of a catchment. Moreover their strong interactions with the lower atmosphere and the carbon cycle make of these areas a noteworthy component of the regional climate system. In the framework of the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN), this study aims at providing a model for wetland water dynamics that can be used for large scale applications in cold regions. The modelling system has two main components : a) the simulation of surface runoff using the Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology (MESH) land surface model driven with several gridded atmospheric datasets and b) the routing of surface runoff using the WATROUTE channel scheme. As a preliminary study, we focus on two small representative study basins in Northern Canada : Scotty Creek in the lower Liard River valley of the Northwest Territories and Baker Creek, located a few kilometers north of Yellowknife. Both areas present characteristic landscapes dominated by a series of peat plateaus, channel fens, small lakes and bogs. Moreover, they constitute important fieldwork sites with detailed data to support our modelling study. The challenge of our new wetland model is to represent the hydrological functioning of the various landscape units encountered in those watersheds and their interactions using simple numerical formulations that can be later extended to larger basins such as the Mackenzie river basin. Using observed datasets, the performance of the model to simulate the temporal evolution of hydrological variables such as the water table depth, frost table depth and discharge is assessed.