Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Probabilistic Estimates of Climate Impacts of the Paris Agreement and Contributions from Different Countries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Chen, Y. H. H.; Monier, E.; Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

2017-12-01

In December of 2015 during COP21 meeting in Paris almost 200 countries signed an agreement pledging to reduce their anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recently USA announced plans to withdraw from the agreement. In this study, we estimate an impact of this decision on future climate using the MIT Integrated Global System Model, which consists of the human activity model, Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and a climate model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Earth System Model (MESM). For comparison, we also estimated impacts of possible withdrawals of China, Europe or India. In addition to the "no climate policy" scenario, we consider five emissions scenarios: Paris, Paris_no_USA, Paris_no_EUR and so on. Climate simulations were carried out from 1861 to 2005 driven by prescribed changes in GHGs and natural forcings and them continued to 2100 driven by GHG emissions produced by EPPA model. Because Paris agreement only cover the period up to 2030, last five scenarios were created assuming that emissions or carbon intensity will continue to decrease after 2030 at the same rate as in the 2020-2030 period. To account for uncertainty in climate system response to external forcing, we carry out 400 member ensembles on climate simulations for each scenario. Probability distributions for climate parameters are obtained by comparing simulated climate for 1861 to 2010 with observations. Our analysis shows that, full implementation of Paris agreement (under above-descried assumptions) will increase probability of surface air temperature in the last decade of this century increasing by less than 3oC relative to pre-industrial form about 20% for "no climate policy" to about 86%. Withdrawal of USA, China, Europe or India will decrease this probability to about 63, 67, 75 and 82%, respectively.

Transient climate-carbon simulations of planetary geoengineering.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Caldeira, Ken

2007-06-12

Geoengineering (the intentional modification of Earth's climate) has been proposed as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming while greenhouse gas emissions continue. Most proposals involve managing incoming solar radiation such that future greenhouse gas forcing is counteracted by reduced solar forcing. In this study, we assess the transient climate response to geoengineering under a business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario by using an intermediate-complexity global climate model that includes an interactive carbon cycle. We find that the climate system responds quickly to artificially reduced insolation; hence, there may be little cost to delaying the deployment of geoengineering strategies until such a time as "dangerous" climate change is imminent. Spatial temperature patterns in the geoengineered simulation are comparable with preindustrial temperatures, although this is not true for precipitation. Carbon sinks in the model increase in response to geoengineering. Because geoengineering acts to mask climate warming, there is a direct CO2-driven increase in carbon uptake without an offsetting temperature-driven suppression of carbon sinks. However, this strengthening of carbon sinks, combined with the potential for rapid climate adjustment to changes in solar forcing, leads to serious consequences should geoengineering fail or be stopped abruptly. Such a scenario could lead to very rapid climate change, with warming rates up to 20 times greater than present-day rates. This warming rebound would be larger and more sustained should climate sensitivity prove to be higher than expected. Thus, employing geoengineering schemes with continued carbon emissions could lead to severe risks for the global climate system.

Developing Models for Predictive Climate Science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drake, John B; Jones, Philip W

2007-01-01

The Community Climate System Model results from a multi-agency collaboration designed to construct cutting-edge climate science simulation models for a broad research community. Predictive climate simulations are currently being prepared for the petascale computers of the near future. Modeling capabilities are continuously being improved in order to provide better answers to critical questions about Earth's climate. Climate change and its implications are front page news in today's world. Could global warming be responsible for the July 2006 heat waves in Europe and the United States? Should more resources be devoted to preparing for an increase in the frequency of strongmore » tropical storms and hurricanes like Katrina? Will coastal cities be flooded due to a rise in sea level? The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), which archives all weather data for the nation, reports that global surface temperatures have increased over the last century, and that the rate of increase is three times greater since 1976. Will temperatures continue to climb at this rate, will they decline again, or will the rate of increase become even steeper? To address such a flurry of questions, scientists must adopt a systematic approach and develop a predictive framework. With responsibility for advising on energy and technology strategies, the DOE is dedicated to advancing climate research in order to elucidate the causes of climate change, including the role of carbon loading from fossil fuel use. Thus, climate science--which by nature involves advanced computing technology and methods--has been the focus of a number of DOE's SciDAC research projects. Dr. John Drake (ORNL) and Dr. Philip Jones (LANL) served as principal investigators on the SciDAC project, 'Collaborative Design and Development of the Community Climate System Model for Terascale Computers.' The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a fully-coupled global system that provides state-of-the-art computer simulations of the Earth's past, present, and future climate states. The collaborative SciDAC team--including over a dozen researchers at institutions around the country--developed, validated, documented, and optimized the performance of CCSM using the latest software engineering approaches, computational technology, and scientific knowledge. Many of the factors that must be accounted for in a comprehensive model of the climate system are illustrated in figure 1.« less

Observing Climate with Satellites - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton

2012-01-01

The Earth s climate is determined by irradiance from the Sun and properties of the atmosphere, oceans, and land that determine the reflection, absorption, and emission of energy within our atmosphere and at the Earth s surface. Since the 1970s, Earth-viewing satellites have complimented non-satellite geophysical observations with consistent, quantitative, and spatially-continuous measurements that have led to an unprecedented understanding of the Earth s climate system. I will describe the Earth s climate system as elaborated by satellite and in situ observations, review arguments against global warming, and show the convergence of evidence for human-caused warming of our planet.

Modeling lakes and reservoirs in the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacKay, M.D.; Neale, P.J.; Arp, C.D.; De Senerpont Domis, L. N.; Fang, X.; Gal, G.; Jo, K.D.; Kirillin, G.; Lenters, J.D.; Litchman, E.; MacIntyre, S.; Marsh, P.; Melack, J.; Mooij, W.M.; Peeters, F.; Quesada, A.; Schladow, S.G.; Schmid, M.; Spence, C.; Stokes, S.L.

2009-01-01

Modeling studies examining the effect of lakes on regional and global climate, as well as studies on the influence of climate variability and change on aquatic ecosystems, are surveyed. Fully coupled atmosphere-land surface-lake climate models that could be used for both of these types of study simultaneously do not presently exist, though there are many applications that would benefit from such models. It is argued here that current understanding of physical and biogeochemical processes in freshwater systems is sufficient to begin to construct such models, and a path forward is proposed. The largest impediment to fully representing lakes in the climate system lies in the handling of lakes that are too small to be explicitly resolved by the climate model, and that make up the majority of the lake-covered area at the resolutions currently used by global and regional climate models. Ongoing development within the hydrological sciences community and continual improvements in model resolution should help ameliorate this issue.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Unified Synthesis Product (USP) Recommendations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, T. C.

2009-05-01

The USP identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. For example, our knowledge of changes in tornadoes, hail, and ice storms is quite limited, making it difficult to know if and how such events have changed as climate has warmed, and how they might change in the future. Research on ecological responses to climate change also is limited, as is our understanding of social responses. The Report identifies the five most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. This includes ecosystems as well as economic systems, human health, and the built environment. 2. Refine ability to project climate change at local scales. One of the main messages to emerge from the past decade of synthesis and assessments is that while climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. The United States has tremendous potential to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society. 4. Improve understanding of and ability to identify thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in the climate system. Paleoclimatic data shows that climate can and has changed quite abruptly when certain thresholds are crossed. Similarly, there is evidence that ecological and human systems can undergo abrupt change when tipping points are reached. 5. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change in the context of multiple stresses. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is essential to improve understanding of how the capacity to adapt to a changing climate might be exercised, and the vulnerabilities to climate change and other environmental stresses that might remain. Results from these efforts would inform future assessments that continue building our understanding of humanity's impacts on climate, and climate's impacts on us. Such assessments will continue to play a role in helping the U.S. respond to changing conditions. A vision for future climate change assessments includes both sustained extensive practitioner and stakeholder involvement, and periodic, targeted, scientifically rigorous reports similar to the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products.

Greenland ice sheet beyond 2100: Simulating its evolution and influence using the coupled climate-ice sheet model EC-Earth - PISM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, S.; Christensen, J. H.; Madsen, M. S.; Ringgaard, I. M.; Petersen, R. A.; Langen, P. P.

2017-12-01

Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) is observed undergoing a rapid change in the recent decades, with an increasing area of surface melting and ablation and a speeding mass loss. Predicting the GrIS changes and their climate consequences relies on the understanding of the interaction of the GrIS with the climate system on both global and local scales, and requires climate model systems incorporating with an explicit and physically consistent ice sheet module. In this work we study the GrIS evolution and its interaction with the climate system using a fully coupled global climate model with a dynamical ice sheet model for the GrIS. The coupled model system, EC-EARTH - PISM, consisting of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model system EC-EARTH, and the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), has been employed for a 1400-year simulation forced by CMIP5 historical forcing from 1850 to 2005 and continued along an extended RCP8.5 scenario with the forcing peaking at 2200 and stabilized hereafter. The simulation reveals that, following the anthropogenic forcing increase, the global mean surface temperature rapidly rises about 10 °C in the 21st and 22nd century. After the forcing stops increasing after 2200, the temperature change slows down and eventually stabilizes at about 12.5 °C above the preindustrial level. In response to the climate warming, the GrIS starts losing mass slowly in the 21st century, but the ice retreat accelerates substantially after 2100 and ice mass loss continues hereafter at a constant rate of approximately 0.5 m sea level rise equivalence per 100 years, even as the warming rate gradually levels off. Ultimately the volume and extent of GrIS reduce to less than half of its preindustrial value. To understand the interaction of GrIS with the climate system, the characteristics of atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the warm climate are analyzed. The circulation patterns associated with the negative surface mass balance that leads to GrIS retreat are investigated. The impact of the simulated surface warming on the ice flow and ice dynamics is explored.

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

Linking the Observation of Essential Variables to Societal Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sylak-Glassman, E.

2017-12-01

Different scientific communities have established sets of commonly agreed upon essential variables to help coordinate data collection in a variety of Earth observation areas. As an example, the World Meteorological Organization Global Climate Observing System has identified 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), such as sea-surface temperature and carbon dioxide, which are required to monitoring the climate and detect and attribute climate change. In addition to supporting climate science, measuring these ECVs deliver many types of societal benefits, ranging from disaster mitigation to agricultural productivity to human health. While communicating the value in maintaining and improving observational records for these variables has been a challenge, quantifying how the measurement of these ECVs results in the delivery of many different societal benefits may help support their continued measurement. The 2016 National Earth Observation Assessment (EOA 2016) quantified the impact of individual Earth observation systems, sensors, networks, and surveys (or Earth observation systems, for short) on the achievement of 217 Federal objectives in 13 societal benefit areas (SBAs). This study will demonstrate the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to show the different Federal objectives and SBAs that are impacted by the Earth observation systems used to measure ECVs. Describing how the measurements from these Earth observation systems are used not only to maintain the climate record but also to meet additional Federal objectives may help articulate the continued measurement of the ECVs. This study will act as a pilot for the use of the EOA 2016 dataset to map between the measurements required to observe additional sets of variables, such as the Essential Ocean Variables and Essential Biodiversity Variables, and the ability to achieve a variety of societal benefits.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

A bottom-up approach to identifying the maximum operational adaptive capacity of water resource systems to a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Culley, S.; Noble, S.; Yates, A.; Timbs, M.; Westra, S.; Maier, H. R.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

2016-09-01

Many water resource systems have been designed assuming that the statistical characteristics of future inflows are similar to those of the historical record. This assumption is no longer valid due to large-scale changes in the global climate, potentially causing declines in water resource system performance, or even complete system failure. Upgrading system infrastructure to cope with climate change can require substantial financial outlay, so it might be preferable to optimize existing system performance when possible. This paper builds on decision scaling theory by proposing a bottom-up approach to designing optimal feedback control policies for a water system exposed to a changing climate. This approach not only describes optimal operational policies for a range of potential climatic changes but also enables an assessment of a system's upper limit of its operational adaptive capacity, beyond which upgrades to infrastructure become unavoidable. The approach is illustrated using the Lake Como system in Northern Italy—a regulated system with a complex relationship between climate and system performance. By optimizing system operation under different hydrometeorological states, it is shown that the system can continue to meet its minimum performance requirements for more than three times as many states as it can under current operations. Importantly, a single management policy, no matter how robust, cannot fully utilize existing infrastructure as effectively as an ensemble of flexible management policies that are updated as the climate changes.

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

System Dynamics to Climate-Driven Water Budget Analysis in the Eastern Snake Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.; Contor, B.; Wylie, A.; Johnson, G.; Allen, R. G.

2010-12-01

Climate variability, weather extremes and climate change continue to threaten the sustainability of water resources in the western United States. Given current climate change projections, increasing temperature is likely to modify the timing, form, and intensity of precipitation events, which consequently affect regional and local hydrologic cycles. As a result, drought, water shortage, and subsequent water conflicts may become an increasing threat in monotone hydrologic systems in arid lands, such as the Eastern Snake Plain Aquifer (ESPA). The ESPA, in particular, is a critical asset in the state of Idaho. It is known as the economic lifeblood for more than half of Idaho’s population so that water resources availability and aquifer management due to climate change is of great interest, especially over the next few decades. In this study, we apply system dynamics as a methodology with which to address dynamically complex problems in ESPA’s water resources management. Aquifer recharge and discharge dynamics are coded in STELLA modeling system as input and output, respectively to identify long-term behavior of aquifer responses to climate-driven hydrological changes.

Free Flyer Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) and Climate Services Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cahalan, R.; Pilewskie, P.; Woods, T.

2012-01-01

NOAA's planned Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) mission will fly along with the NOAA user service payloads Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) and Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT). In ' order to guarantee continuity in the 33-year solar irradiance climate data record, TSIS must be launched in time to overlap with current on-orbit solar irradiance instruments. Currently TSIS is moving towards a launch rcadinss date of January 2015. TSIS provides for continuation of the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) ,currently onboard NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) platform, launched in January 2003. The difficulty of ensuring continuity has increased due to the launch failure of NASA's Glory mission with its improved TIM. Achieving the needed overlap must now rely on extending SORCE. and maintaining the TSIS schedule. TSIS is one component of a NASA-NOAA joint program (JPSS) planned to transition certain climate observations to operational mode. We summarize issues of continuity, improvements being made to the TIM and 81M sensors, and plans to provide for traceability of total and spectral irradiance measurements to ground-based cryogenic standards.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

1998-01-01

The goal of this research is the continued development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. This work involves a combination of modeling and analysis efforts involving 4DDA datasets and simulations from the University of Wisconsin (UW) hybrid isentropic-sigma (theta-sigma) coordinate model and the GEOS GCM.

Climate and Offshore Energy Resources.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-30

SECuRITY CL.ASSIPIcaTIoN OF, TIns PA@elm VaeVa CLMATE ANID OFFSHORE ENERGY RESOUACES A distinguished group of government officials, scientists, engineers...about the mech- anisms of climatic systems, and gaining a better understanding of the impact of climatic change on human resources.* He continued by...atmospheric constit- uents, but he particularly emphasized " changes " in C02. He suggested that the atmospheric conditions may be better now than they were half

The influence of climate on peatland extent in Western Siberia since the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Alexandrov, G. A.; Brovkin, V. A.; Kleinen, T.

2016-01-01

Boreal and subarctic peatlands are an important dynamical component of the earth system. They are sensitive to climate change, and could either continue to serve as a carbon sink or become a carbon source. Climatic thresholds for switching peatlands from sink to source are not well defined, and therefore, incorporating peatlands into Earth system models is a challenging task. Here we introduce a climatic index, warm precipitation excess, to delineate the potential geographic distribution of boreal peatlands for a given climate and landscape morphology. This allows us to explain the present-day distribution of peatlands in Western Siberia, their absence during the Last Glacial Maximum, their expansion during the mid-Holocene, and to form a working hypothesis about the trend to peatland degradation in the southern taiga belt of Western Siberia under an RCP 8.5 scenario for the projected climate in year 2100. PMID:27095029

The influence of climate on peatland extent in Western Siberia since the Last Glacial Maximum.

PubMed

Alexandrov, G A; Brovkin, V A; Kleinen, T

2016-04-20

Boreal and subarctic peatlands are an important dynamical component of the earth system. They are sensitive to climate change, and could either continue to serve as a carbon sink or become a carbon source. Climatic thresholds for switching peatlands from sink to source are not well defined, and therefore, incorporating peatlands into Earth system models is a challenging task. Here we introduce a climatic index, warm precipitation excess, to delineate the potential geographic distribution of boreal peatlands for a given climate and landscape morphology. This allows us to explain the present-day distribution of peatlands in Western Siberia, their absence during the Last Glacial Maximum, their expansion during the mid-Holocene, and to form a working hypothesis about the trend to peatland degradation in the southern taiga belt of Western Siberia under an RCP 8.5 scenario for the projected climate in year 2100.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Rapid breeding and varietal replacement are critical to adaptation of cropping systems in the developing world to climate change.

PubMed

Atlin, Gary N; Cairns, Jill E; Das, Biswanath

2017-03-01

Plant breeding is a key mechanism for adaptation of cropping systems to climate change. Much discussion of breeding for climate change focuses on genes with large effects on heat and drought tolerance, but phenology and stress tolerance are highly polygenic. Adaptation will therefore mainly result from continually adjusting allele frequencies at many loci through rapid-cycle breeding that delivers a steady stream of incrementally improved cultivars. This will require access to elite germplasm from other regions, shortened breeding cycles, and multi-location testing systems that adequately sample the target population of environments. The objective of breeding and seed systems serving smallholder farmers should be to ensure that they use varieties developed in the last 10 years. Rapid varietal turnover must be supported by active dissemination of new varieties, and active withdrawal of obsolete ones. Commercial seed systems in temperate regions achieve this through competitive seed markets, but in the developing world, most crops are not served by competitive commercial seed systems, and many varieties date from the end of the Green Revolution (the late 1970s, when the second generation of modern rice and wheat varieties had been widely adopted). These obsolete varieties were developed in a climate different than today's, placing farmers at risk. To reduce this risk, a strengthened breeding system is needed, with freer international exchange of elite varieties, short breeding cycles, high selection intensity, wide-scale phenotyping, and accurate selection supported by genomic technology. Governments need to incentivize varietal release and dissemination systems to continuously replace obsolete varieties.

Satellite lidar and radar: Key components of the future climate observing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, D. M.

2017-12-01

Cloud feedbacks represent the dominant source of uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity and aerosols represent the largest source of uncertainty in climate forcing. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. The existing 30-year record of passive satellite observations has not yet provided constraints to significantly reduce these uncertainties, though. We now have more than a decade of experience with active sensors flying in the A-Train. These new observations have demonstrated the strengths of active sensors and the benefits of continued and more advanced active sensors. This talk will discuss the multiple roles for active sensors as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Translating Research into Practice: Establishing a Network of Climate Change Practitioners in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, G. A.

2017-12-01

Climate research and information continues to emerge at a rapid pace from the academic and scientific community. Decisions being made today by planners, engineers and staff across the Province of Ontario rely on science and information to plan and build our systems for the long term. Of course, as scientific information evolves continuously to produce lessons learned and new evidence, on the ground decisions often become entrenched in outdated information and need updating. Given this, bridging the gap between research to policy, and research to practice is of critical importance as the Province of Ontario upgrades its infrastructure, plans for long term growth in population within the Great Lakes Basin, and manages its natural systems and resources responsibly. The Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) is an interdisciplinary network of academics and practitioners established in 2011 in the province that works to mobilize climate research findings towards building capacity, inspiring climate action, and training end-users with the latest science. The OCC has collaborated with more than 39 organizations throughout Ontario and across Canada, including government agencies at all levels (local, provincial and federal), non-profit organizations and private sector companies. This presentation will describe the foundations of climate action in Ontario, Canada including the landscape of climate adaptation practitioners from both public and private organizations. Furthermore, this presentation will feature lessons learned from the OCC network, including: 1) What comprises effective partnerships to undertake climate change adaptation planning for cities; 2) How to build the foundation for capacity at agencies with limited resources or expertise in the climate change field; and 3) How to successfully mobilize complex climate data for end-users to produce usable tools (through a case study research project). The latter will present findings from a two-year research project undertaken with OCC and the City of Vaughan, just northwest of Toronto, which examined vulnerability and risks of climate change to the city's stormwater infrastructure system and produced key tools and information for managers to begin building climate resilience into their planning and operations.

Legacy effects of land-use modulate tree growth responses to climate extremes.

PubMed

Mausolf, Katharina; Härdtle, Werner; Jansen, Kirstin; Delory, Benjamin M; Hertel, Dietrich; Leuschner, Christoph; Temperton, Vicky M; von Oheimb, Goddert; Fichtner, Andreas

2018-05-10

Climate change can impact forest ecosystem processes via individual tree and community responses. While the importance of land-use legacies in modulating these processes have been increasingly recognised, evidence of former land-use mediated climate-growth relationships remain rare. We analysed how differences in former land-use (i.e. forest continuity) affect the growth response of European beech to climate extremes. Here, using dendrochronological and fine root data, we show that ancient forests (forests with a long forest continuity) and recent forests (forests afforested on former farmland) clearly differ with regard to climate-growth relationships. We found that sensitivity to climatic extremes was lower for trees growing in ancient forests, as reflected by significantly lower growth reductions during adverse climatic conditions. Fine root morphology also differed significantly between the former land-use types: on average, trees with high specific root length (SRL) and specific root area (SRA) and low root tissue density (RTD) were associated with recent forests, whereas the opposite traits were characteristic of ancient forests. Moreover, we found that trees of ancient forests hold a larger fine root system than trees of recent forests. Our results demonstrate that land-use legacy-mediated modifications in the size and morphology of the fine root system act as a mechanism in regulating drought resistance of beech, emphasising the need to consider the 'ecological memory' of forests when assessing or predicting the sensitivity of forest ecosystems to global environmental change.

Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

2017-11-01

The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

High Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis System for Polar Ice Cores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallmayr, Remi; Azuma, Kumiko; Yamada, Hironobu; Kjær, Helle Astrid; Vallelonga, Paul; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Takata, Morimasa

2014-05-01

In the last decades, Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) technology for ice core analyses has been developed to reconstruct the past changes of the climate system 1), 2). Compared with traditional analyses of discrete samples, a CFA system offers much faster and higher depth resolution analyses. It also generates a decontaminated sample stream without time-consuming sample processing procedure by using the inner area of an ice-core sample.. The CFA system that we have been developing is currently able to continuously measure stable water isotopes 3) and electrolytic conductivity, as well as to collect discrete samples for the both inner and outer areas with variable depth resolutions. Chemistry analyses4) and methane-gas analysis 5) are planned to be added using the continuous water stream system 5). In order to optimize the resolution of the current system with minimal sample volumes necessary for different analyses, our CFA system typically melts an ice core at 1.6 cm/min. Instead of using a wire position encoder with typical 1mm positioning resolution 6), we decided to use a high-accuracy CCD Laser displacement sensor (LKG-G505, Keyence). At the 1.6 cm/min melt rate, the positioning resolution was increased to 0.27mm. Also, the mixing volume that occurs in our open split debubbler is regulated using its weight. The overflow pumping rate is smoothly PID controlled to maintain the weight as low as possible, while keeping a safety buffer of water to avoid air bubbles downstream. To evaluate the system's depth-resolution, we will present the preliminary data of electrolytic conductivity obtained by melting 12 bags of the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) ice core. The samples correspond to different climate intervals (Greenland Stadial 21, 22, Greenland Stadial 5, Greenland Interstadial 5, Greenland Interstadial 7, Greenland Stadial 8). We will present results for the Greenland Stadial -8, whose depths and ages are between 1723.7 and 1724.8 meters, and 35.520 to 35.636 kyr b2k 7), respectively. The results show the conductivity measured upstream and downstream of the debubbler. We will calculate the depth resolution of our system and compare it with earlier studies. 1) Bigler at al, "Optimization of High-Resolution Continuous Flow Analysis For Transient Climate Signals in Ice Cores". Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45, 4483-4489 2) Kaufmann et al, "An Improved Continuous Flow Analysis System for High Resolution Field Measurements on Ice Cores". Environmental Environ. Sci. Technol. 2008, 42, 8044-8050 3) Gkinis, V., T. J. Popp, S. J. Johnsen and T, Blunier, 2010: A continuous stream flash evaporator for the calibration of an IR cavity ring down spectrometer for the isotopic analysis of water. Isotopes in Environmental and Health Studies, 46(4), 463-475. 4) McConnell et al, "Continuous ice-core chemical analyses using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2002, 36, 7-11 5) Rhodes et al, "Continuous methane measurements from a late Holocene Greenland ice core : Atmospheric and in-situ signals" Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 2013, 368, 9-19 6) Breton et al, "Quantifying Signal Dispersion in a Hybrid Ice Core Melting System". Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, 11922-11928 7) Rasmussen et al, " A first chronology for the NEEM ice core". Climate of the Past. 2013, 9, 2967--3013

The Climate Science Special Report: Summary of Findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.

2017-12-01

As a prelude to the 4th National Climate Assessment, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) is being developed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the science underlying the changes occurring in the Earth's climate system, with a special focus on the United States. To summarize some of the findings, the science is clear—the climate on our planet, including the United States, is changing, changing much more rapidly than occurs naturally, and it is happening primarily because of human activities, especially from our use of fossil fuels but also from land use change. Observational evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans. Documented changes include surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; disappearing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; and rising sea level. Severe weather is becoming more intense. Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Heavy rainfall is increasing in intensity and frequency across the United States and globally. All of these trends are expected to continue. The Earth's climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise. Many lines of evidence demonstrate that it is extremely likely (95% or greater likelihood) that human activities have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. This presentation summarizes key findings from the CSSR.

Detecting climate variations and change: New challenges for observing and data management systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karl, T.R.; Quayle, R.G.; Groisman, P.Ya.

1993-08-01

Several essential aspects of weather observing and the management of weather data related to improving knowledge of climate variations and change in the surface boundary layer and the consequences for socioeconomic and biogeophysical systems, are discussed. The issues include long-term homogeneous time series of routine weather observations; time- and space-scale resolution of datasets derived from the observations; information about observing systems, data collection systems, and data reduction algorithms; and the enhancement of weather observing systems to serve as climate observing systems. Although much has been learned from existing weather networks and methods of data management, the system is far frommore » perfect. Several vital areas have not received adequate attention. Particular improvements are needed in the interaction between network designers and climatologists; operational analyses that focus on detecting and documenting outliers and time-dependent biases within datasets; developing the means to cope with and minimize potential inhomogeneities in weather observing systems; and authoritative documentation of how various aspects of climate have or have not changed. In this last area, close attention must be given to time and space resolution of the data. In many instances the time and space resolution requirements for understanding why the climate changes are not synonymous with understanding how it has changed or varied. This is particularly true within the surface boundary layer. A standard global daily/monthly climate message should also be introduced to supplement current Global Telecommunication System's CLIMAT data. Overall, a call is made for improvements in routine weather observing, data management, and analysis systems. Routine observations have provided (and will continue to provide) most of the information regarding how the climate has changed during the last 100 years affecting where we live, work, and grow our food. 58 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.« less

Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Lacis, Andrew; Prather, Michael

1989-01-01

A comparison is made of the radiative (greenhouse) forcing of the climate system due to changes of atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. It is found that CFCs, defined to include chlorofluorocarbons, chlorocarbons, and fluorocarbons, now provide about one-quater of current annual increases in anthropogenic greenhouse climate forcing. If the growth rates of CFC production in the early 1970s had continued to the present, current annual growth of climate forcing due to CFCs would exceed that due to CO2.

Climate Observations from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Stephen

2016-07-01

The latest Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Status Report on global climate observations, delivered to the UNFCCC COP21 in November 2016, showed how satellite data are critical for observations relating to climate. Of the 50 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) identified by GCOS as necessary for understanding climate change, about half are derived only from satellite data while half of the remainder have a significant input from satellites. Hence data from Earth observing satellite systems are now a fundamental requirement for understanding the climate system and for managing the consequences of climate change. Following the Paris Agreement of COP21 this need is only greater. Not only will satellites have to continue to provide data for modelling and predicting climate change but also for a much wider range of actions relating to climate. These include better information on loss and damage, resilience, improved adaptation to change, and on mitigation including information on greenhouse gas emissions. In addition there is an emerging need for indicators of the risks associated with future climate change which need to be better quantified, allowing policy makers both to understand what decisions need to be taken, and to see the consequences of their actions. The presentation will set out some of the ways in which satellite data are important in all aspects of understanding, managing and predicting climate change and how they may be used to support future decisions by those responsible for policy related to managing climate change and its consequences.

A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.

2009-12-01

Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society. "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March 2009

Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

2016-04-01

Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

Effects of Institutional Climate and Culture on the Perceptions of the Working Environments of Public Community Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Stephanie J.; Taylor, Colette M.

2012-01-01

Researchers have found that, although community colleges continue to remain gendered organizations, their climates and cultures are perceived to be more open to women than are their college and university peers. Community colleges may in fact still have the male orientation of the higher education system despite their efforts to be…

From transient to steady-state response of ecosystems to atmospheric CO2-enrichment and global climate change: conceptual challenges and need for an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2006-01-01

Evidence continues to accumulate that humans are significantly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, resulting in unprecedented changes in the global climate system. Experimental manipulations of terrestrial ecosystems and their components have greatly increased our understanding of short-term responses to these global perturbations and have...

The effects of the ARC organizational intervention on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in children's service systems.

PubMed

Glisson, Charles; Dukes, Denzel; Green, Philip

2006-08-01

This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams were randomly assigned to either the ARC organizational intervention condition or to a control condition. The culture and climate of each case management team were assessed at baseline and again after the one-year organizational intervention was completed. In addition, caseworker turnover was assessed by identifying caseworkers on the sampled teams who quit their jobs during the year. Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM) analyses indicate that the ARC organizational intervention reduced the probability of caseworker turnover by two-thirds and improved organizational climate by reducing role conflict, role overload, emotional exhaustion, and depersonalization in both urban and rural case management teams. Organizational intervention strategies can be used to reduce staff turnover and improve organizational climates in urban and rural child welfare and juvenile justice systems. This is important because child welfare and juvenile justice systems in the U.S.A. are plagued by high turnover rates, and there is evidence that high staff turnover and poor organizational climates negatively affect service quality and outcomes in these systems.

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

Continuing the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O.; Pilewskie, P.; Kopp, G.; Richard, E. C.; Sparn, T.; Woods, T. N.

2017-12-01

Radiative energy from the Sun establishes the basic climate of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and defines the terrestrial environment that supports all life on the planet. External solar variability on a wide range of scales ubiquitously affects the Earth system, and combines with internal forcings, including anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols, and natural modes such as ENSO, and volcanic forcing, to define past, present, and future climates. Understanding these effects requires continuous measurements of total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance that meet the stringent requirements of climate-quality accuracy and stability over time. The current uninterrupted 39-year total solar irradiance (TSI) climate data record is the result of several overlapping instruments flown on different missions. Measurement continuity, required to link successive instruments to the existing data record to discern long-term trends makes this important climate data record susceptible to loss in the event of a gap in measurements. While improvements in future instrument accuracy will reduce the risk of a gap, the 2017 launch of TSIS-1 ensures continuity of the solar irradiance record into the next decade. There are scientific and programmatic motivations for addressing the challenges of maintaining the solar irradiance data record beyond TSIS-1. The science rests on well-founded requirements of establishing a trusted climate observing network that can monitor trends in fundamental climate variables. Programmatically, the long-term monitoring of solar irradiance must be balanced within the broader goals of NASA Earth Science. New concepts for a low-risk, cost efficient observing strategy is a priority. New highly capable small spacecraft, low-cost launch vehicles and a multi-decadal plan to provide overlapping TSI and SSI data records are components of a low risk/high reliability plan with lower annual cost than past implementations. This paper provides the justification for prioritizing solar irradiance observations and plans for extending the record into the next two decades that adheres to the rigors of quantifiable methods for meeting objectives.

The impact of warming on greenhouse gas fluxes: an experimental comparison which reveals the varied response of ecosystems to climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockdale, James; Ineson, Philip

2016-04-01

Modelled predictions of the response of terrestrial systems to climate change are highly variable, yet the response of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) is a vital ecosystem behaviour to understand due to its inherent feedback to the carbon cycle. The establishment and subsequent monitoring of replicated experimental manipulations are a direct method to reveal these responses, yet are difficult to achieve as they typically resource-heavy and labour intensive. We actively manipulated the temperature at three agricultural grasslands in southern England and deployed novel 'SkyLine' systems, recently developed at the University of York, to continuously monitor GHG fluxes. Each 'SkyLine' is a low-cost and fully autonomous technology yet produces fluxes at a near-continuous temporal frequency and across a wide spatial area. The results produced by 'SkyLine' enable the detail response of each system to increased temperature over diurnal and seasonal timescales. Unexpected differences in NEE are shown between superficially similar ecosystems which, upon investigation, suggest that interactions between a variety of environmental variables are key and that knowledge of pre-existing environmental conditions help to predict a systems response to future climate. For example, the prevailing hydrological conditions at each site appear to affect its response to changing temperature. The high-frequency data shown here, combined with the fully-replicated experimental design reveal complex interactions which must be understood to improve predictions of ecosystem response to a changing climate.

Climate Change and Vector Borne Diseases on NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, Stuart K.; DeYoung, Russell J.; Shepanek, Marc A.; Kamel, Ahmed

2014-01-01

Increasing global temperature, weather patterns with above average storm intensities, and higher sea levels have been identified as phenomena associated with global climate change. As a causal system, climate change could contribute to vector borne diseases in humans. Vectors of concern originate from the vicinity of Langley Research Center include mosquitos and ticks that transmit disease that originate regionally, nationwide, or from outside the US. Recognizing changing conditions, vector borne diseases propagate under climate change conditions, and understanding the conditions in which they may exist or propagate, presents opportunities for monitoring their progress and mitigating their potential impacts through communication, continued monitoring, and adaptation. Personnel comprise a direct and fundamental support to NASA mission success, continuous and improved understanding of climatic conditions, and the resulting consequence of disease from these conditions, helps to reduce risk in terrestrial space technologies, ground operations, and space research. This research addresses conditions which are attributed to climatic conditions which promote environmental conditions conducive to the increase of disease vectors. This investigation includes evaluation of local mosquito population count and rainfall data for statistical correlation and identification of planning recommendations unique to LaRC, other NASA Centers to assess adaptation approaches, Center-level planning strategies.

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

PubMed

Myers, Samuel S; Smith, Matthew R; Guth, Sarah; Golden, Christopher D; Vaitla, Bapu; Mueller, Nathaniel D; Dangour, Alan D; Huybers, Peter

2017-03-20

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Abreu, Paulo C.; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John O.R.; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T.; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

2016-01-01

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

GCOS reference upper air network (GRUAN): Steps towards assuring future climate records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorne, P. W.; Vömel, H.; Bodeker, G.; Sommer, M.; Apituley, A.; Berger, F.; Bojinski, S.; Braathen, G.; Calpini, B.; Demoz, B.; Diamond, H. J.; Dykema, J.; Fassò, A.; Fujiwara, M.; Gardiner, T.; Hurst, D.; Leblanc, T.; Madonna, F.; Merlone, A.; Mikalsen, A.; Miller, C. D.; Reale, T.; Rannat, K.; Richter, C.; Seidel, D. J.; Shiotani, M.; Sisterson, D.; Tan, D. G. H.; Vose, R. S.; Voyles, J.; Wang, J.; Whiteman, D. N.; Williams, S.

2013-09-01

The observational climate record is a cornerstone of our scientific understanding of climate changes and their potential causes. Existing observing networks have been designed largely in support of operational weather forecasting and continue to be run in this mode. Coverage and timeliness are often higher priorities than absolute traceability and accuracy. Changes in instrumentation used in the observing system, as well as in operating procedures, are frequent, rarely adequately documented and their impacts poorly quantified. For monitoring changes in upper-air climate, which is achieved through in-situ soundings and more recently satellites and ground-based remote sensing, the net result has been trend uncertainties as large as, or larger than, the expected emergent signals of climate change. This is more than simply academic with the tropospheric temperature trends issue having been the subject of intense debate, two international assessment reports and several US congressional hearings. For more than a decade the international climate science community has been calling for the instigation of a network of reference quality measurements to reduce uncertainty in our climate monitoring capabilities. This paper provides a brief history of GRUAN developments to date and outlines future plans. Such reference networks can only be achieved and maintained with strong continuing input from the global metrological community.

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

2008-01-01

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

Basin-Wide Oceanographic Array Bridges the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansorge, I. J.; Baringer, M. O.; Campos, E. J. D.; Dong, S.; Fine, R. A.; Garzoli, S. L.; Goni, G.; Meinen, C. S.; Perez, R. C.; Piola, A. R.; Roberts, M. J.; Speich, S.; Sprintall, J.; Terre, T.; Van den Berg, M. A.

2014-02-01

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a global system of surface, intermediate, and deep ocean currents. The MOC connects the surface layer of the ocean and the atmosphere with the huge reservoir of the deep sea and is the primary mechanism for transporting heat, freshwater, and carbon between ocean basins. Climate models show that past changes in the strength of the MOC were linked to historical climate variations. Further research suggests that the MOC will continue to modulate climate change scenarios on time scales ranging from decades to centuries [Latif et al., 2006].

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Under Negative Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwinger, Jörg; Tjiputra, Jerry

2018-05-01

Negative emissions will most likely be needed to achieve ambitious climate targets, such as limiting global warming to 1.5°. Here we analyze the ocean carbon-concentration and carbon-climate feedback in an Earth system model under an idealized strong CO2 peak and decline scenario. We find that the ocean carbon-climate feedback is not reversible by means of negative emissions on decadal to centennial timescales. When preindustrial surface climate is restored, the oceans, due to the carbon-climate feedback, still contain about 110 Pg less carbon compared to a simulation without climate change. This result is unsurprising but highlights an issue with a widely used carbon cycle feedback metric. We show that this metric can be greatly improved by using ocean potential temperature as a proxy for climate change. The nonlinearity (nonadditivity) of climate and CO2-driven feedbacks continues to grow after the atmospheric CO2 peak.

Western water and climate change.

PubMed

Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

2015-12-01

The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries and agricultural demands. Finally, California's Bay-Delta system is a remarkably localized and severe weakness at the heart of the region's trillion-dollar economy. It is threatened by the full range of potential climate-change impacts expected across the West, along with major vulnerabilities to increased flooding and rising sea levels.

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

PubMed Central

Meehl, Gerald A.

2017-01-01

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events’. PMID:28483866

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

PubMed

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate Forecasts and Water Resource Management: Applications for a Developing Country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.; Rogers, P.

2002-05-01

While the quantity of water on the planet earth is relatively constant, the demand for water is continuously increasing. Population growth leads to linear increases in water demand, and economic growth leads to further demand growth. Strzepek et al. calculate that with a United Nations mean population estimate of 8.5 billion people by 2025 and globally balanced economic growth, water use could increase by 70% over that time (Strzepek et al., 1995). For developing nations especially, supplying water for this growing demand requires the construction of new water supply infrastructure. The prospect of designing and constructing long life-span infrastructure is clouded by the uncertainty of future climate. The availability of future water resources is highly dependent on future climate. With realization of the nonstationarity of climate, responsible design emphasizes resiliency and robustness of water resource systems (IPCC, 1995; Gleick et al., 1999). Resilient systems feature multiple sources and complex transport and distribution systems, and so come at a high economic and environmental price. A less capital-intense alternative to creating resilient and robust water resource systems is the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Such forecasts provide adequate lead time and accuracy to allow water managers and water-based sectors such as agriculture or hydropower to optimize decisions for the expected water supply. This study will assess the use of seasonal climate forecasts from regional climate models as a method to improve water resource management in systems with limited water supply infrastructure

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Key findings and lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgi, Filippo; Field, Christopher; Barros, Vicente

2014-05-01

The Working Group II contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergivernmental Panel on Climate Change, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, will be completed and approved in March 2014. It includes two parts, Part A covering Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B, covering Regional Aspects. The WGII report spans a very broad range of topics which are approached in a strong interdisciplinary context. It highlights how observed impacts of climate change are now widespread and consequential, particularly for natural systems, and can be observed on all continents and across the oceans. Vulnerability to climate change depends on interactions with non-climatic stressors and inequalities, resulting in highly differential risks associated with climate change. It is also found that adaptation is already occurring across scales and is embedded in many planning processes. Continued sustained warming thrughout the 21st century will exacerbate risks and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as freshwater resources, terrestrial and inland water systems, coastal and marine systems, food production, human health, security and livelihood. The report stresses how risks and vulnerabilities need to be assessed within a multi-stressor and regionally specific context, and can be reduced and managed by adopting climate-resilient pathwyas combining suitable adaptation and mitigation options with synergies and tradeoffs occurring both within and across regions. The Working group II report includes a large number of Chapters (30) and contributors (310 including authors and review editors), with expertise in a broad range of disciplines, from the physical science to the impact and socio-economic sciences. The communication across chapters and disciplines has been a challenge, and will continue to be one as the Global Change problem will increasingly require a fully integrated and holistic approach. Note that text on this abstract is not approved at the time its submission, but it will be discussed in the report.

Lightning Discharges, Cosmic Rays and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Sanjay; Siingh, Devendraa; Singh, R. P.; Singh, A. K.; Kamra, A. K.

2018-03-01

The entirety of the Earth's climate system is continuously bombarded by cosmic rays and exhibits about 2000 thunderstorms active at any time of the day all over the globe. Any linkage among these vast systems should have global consequences. Numerous studies done in the past deal with partial links between some selected aspects of this grand linkage. Results of these studies vary from weakly to strongly significant and are not yet complete enough to justify the physical mechanism proposed to explain such links. This review is aimed at presenting the current understanding, based on the past studies on the link between cosmic ray, lightning and climate. The deficiencies in some proposed links are pointed out. Impacts of cosmic rays on engineering systems and the possible effects of cosmic rays on human health are also briefly discussed. Also enumerated are some problems for future work which may help in developing the grand linkage among these three vast systems.

Climate Literacy: Supporting Teacher Professional Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, N.; Ledley, T. S.; Dunlap, C.; Bardar, E.; Youngman, B.; Ellins, K. K.; McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.

2012-12-01

Confronting the Challenges of Climate Literacy (CCCL) is an NSF-funded (DRK-12) project that includes curriculum development, teacher professional development, teacher leadership development, and research on student learning, all directed at high school teachers and students. The project's evaluation efforts inform and guide all major components of the project. The research effort addresses the question of what interventions are most effective in helping high school students grasp the complexities of the Earth system and climate processes, which occur over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The curriculum unit includes three distinct but related modules: Climate and the Cryosphere; Climate, Weather, and the Biosphere; and Climate and the Carbon Cycle. Climate-related themes that cut across all three modules include the Earth system, with the complexities of its positive and negative feedback loops; the range of temporal and spatial scales at which climate, weather, and other Earth system processes occur; and the recurring question, "How do we know what we know about Earth's past and present climate?" which addresses proxy data and scientific instrumentation. The professional development component of the project includes online science resources to support the teaching of the curriculum modules, summer workshops for high school teachers, and a support system for developing the teacher leaders who plan and implement those summer workshops. When completed, the project will provide a model high school curriculum with online support for implementing teachers and a cadre of leaders who can continue to introduce new teachers to the resource. This presentation will introduce the curriculum and the university partnerships that are key to the project's success, and describe how the project addresses the challenge of helping teachers develop their understanding of climate science and their ability to convey climate-related concepts articulated in the Next Generation Science Standards to their students. We will also describe the professional development and support system to develop teacher leaders and explain some of the challenges that accompany this approach of developing teacher leaders in the area of climate literacy.

Biophysical system models advance agricultural research and technology: Some examples and further research needs

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Environmental concerns of the general public, droughts, and climate change effects require continual adaptation and optimization of agricultural systems through changes in cropping and management. Advancement of science and technology to achieve these changes requires cutting-edge field research, us...

Geoengineering: re-making climate for profit or humanitarian intervention?

PubMed

Buck, Holly Jean

2012-01-01

Climate engineering, or geoengineering, refers to large-scale climate interventions to lower the earth's temperature, either by blocking incoming sunlight or removing carbon dioxide from the biosphere. Regarded as ‘technofixes’ by critics, these strategies have evoked concern that they would extend the shelf life of fossil-fuel driven socio-ecological systems for far longer than they otherwise would, or should, endure. A critical reading views geoengineering as a class project that is designed to keep the climate system stable enough for existing production systems to continue operating. This article first examines these concerns, and then goes on to envision a regime driven by humanitarian agendas and concern for vulnerable populations, implemented through international development and aid institutions. The motivations of those who fund research and implement geoengineering techniques are important, as the rationale for developing geoengineering strategies will determine which techniques are pursued, and hence which ecologies are produced. The logic that shapes the geoengineering research process could potentially influence social ecologies centuries from now.

Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China.

PubMed

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2015-09-07

China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world's population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China's current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country's capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future.

A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Tanre, Didier; Boucher, Olivier

2002-01-01

Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

Global Physiographic and Climatic Maps to Support Revision of Environmental Testing Guidelines

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-06

precipitation and boarded by High and Low Relief Mountains or Interior Plains and Plateaus, such as the Amazon River Basin in South America and the Congo...taxonomy system. These form in hot climates with continual moisture availability, typically thought to occur only beneath tropical rainforests , though...Montane Tropical Forest Tropical Degraded Forest Seasonal Tropical Forest Rain Green Tropical Forest Tropical Rainforest FIGURE 6-1 DATE: 6-02

Tropical forests and the changing earth system.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L

2006-01-29

Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of the rate of climate change. Recent research on deforestation rates and ecological changes within intact forests, both areas of recent research and debate, are reviewed, and the implications for biodiversity (species loss) and climate change (via the global carbon cycle) addressed. Recent impacts have most likely been: (i) a large source of carbon to the atmosphere, and major loss of species, from deforestation and (ii) a large carbon sink within remaining intact forest, accompanied by accelerating forest dynamism and widespread biodiversity changes. Finally, I look to the future, suggesting that the current carbon sink in intact forests is unlikely to continue, and that the tropical forest biome may even become a large net source of carbon, via one or more of four plausible routes: changing photosynthesis and respiration rates, biodiversity changes in intact forest, widespread forest collapse via drought, and widespread forest collapse via fire. Each of these scenarios risks potentially dangerous positive feedbacks with the climate system that could dramatically accelerate and intensify climate change. Given that continued land-use change alone is already thought to be causing the sixth mass extinction event in Earth's history, should such feedbacks occur, the resulting biodiversity and societal consequences would be even more severe.

Investigations of the Climate System Response to Climate Engineering in a Hierarchy of Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, Kelly E.

Global warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is causing negative impacts on diverse ecological and human systems around the globe, and these impacts are projected to worsen as climate continues to warm. In the absence of meaningful greenhouse gas emissions reductions, new strategies have been proposed to engineer the climate, with the aim of preventing further warming and avoiding associated climate impacts. We investigate one such strategy here, falling under the umbrella of `solar radiation management', in which sulfate aerosols are injected into the stratosphere. We use a global climate model with a coupled mixed-layer depth ocean and with a fully-coupled ocean general circulation model to simulate the stabilization of climate by balancing increasing carbon dioxide with increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations. We evaluate whether or not severe climate impacts, such as melting Arctic sea ice, tropical crop failure, or destabilization of the West Antarctic ice sheet, could be avoided. We find that while tropical climate emergencies might be avoided by use of stratospheric aerosol injections, avoiding polar emergencies cannot be guaranteed due to large residual climate changes in those regions, which are in part due to residual atmospheric circulation anomalies. We also find that the inclusion of a fully-coupled ocean is important for determining the regional climate response because of its dynamical feedbacks. The efficacy of stratospheric sulfate aerosol injections, and solar radiation management more generally, depends on its ability to be maintained indefinitely, without interruption from a variety of possible sources, such as technological failure, a breakdown in global cooperation, lack of funding, or negative unintended consequences. We next consider the scenario in which stratospheric sulfate injections are abruptly terminated after a multi- decadal period of implementation while greenhouse gas emissions have continued unabated. We show that upon cessation, an abrupt, spatially broad, and sustained warming over land occurs that is well outside the bounds of 20th century climate variability. We then use an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to further show the sensitivity of these trends to background greenhouse gas emissions, termination year, and climate sensitivity. We find that the rate of warming from cessation of solar radiation management -- of critical importance for ecological and human systems -- is principally controlled by the background greenhouse gas concentrations. It follows that the only way to avoid the risk of an abrupt and dangerous warming that is inherent to the large-scale implementation of solar radiation management is to also strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The climate system responds to radiative forcing on a diverse spectrum of timescales, which will affect what goals can be achieved for a given stratospheric aerosol implementation. We next investigate how different rates of stratospheric sulfate aerosol deployment affect what climate impacts can be avoided by simulating two rates of increasing stratospheric sulfate concentrations in a fully-coupled global climate model. We find that disparate goals are achieved for different rates of deployment; for a slow ramping of sulfate, land surface temperature trends remain small but sea levels continue to rise for decades, whereas a quick ramp-up of sulfate yields large land surface cooling trends and immediately reduces sea level. However, atmospheric circulation changes also act to create a large-scale subsurface ocean environment around Antarctica that is favorable for increased basal melting of ice sheet outlets, thereby leaving the potential open for increased sea level rise even in the absence of large atmospheric surface warming. We show that instead, when greenhouse gases are abruptly returned to preindustrial levels, circulation anomalies are reversed, and the subsurface ocean environment does not pose the same threat to Antarctic ice sheets. We conclude that again, reduction of greenhouse gases is the preferred strategy for avoiding climate impacts of global warming.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records.

PubMed

Foreman, Brady Z; Straub, Kyle M

2017-09-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 10 4 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation.

Autogenic geomorphic processes determine the resolution and fidelity of terrestrial paleoclimate records

PubMed Central

Foreman, Brady Z.; Straub, Kyle M.

2017-01-01

Terrestrial paleoclimate records rely on proxies hosted in alluvial strata whose beds are deposited by unsteady and nonlinear geomorphic processes. It is broadly assumed that this renders the resultant time series of terrestrial paleoclimatic variability noisy and incomplete. We evaluate this assumption using a model of oscillating climate and the precise topographic evolution of an experimental alluvial system. We find that geomorphic stochasticity can create aliasing in the time series and spurious climate signals, but these issues are eliminated when the period of climate oscillation is longer than a key time scale of internal dynamics in the geomorphic system. This emergent autogenic geomorphic behavior imparts regularity to deposition and represents a natural discretization interval of the continuous climate signal. We propose that this time scale in nature could be in excess of 104 years but would still allow assessments of the rates of climate change at resolutions finer than the existing age model techniques in isolation. PMID:28924607

A systems approach to identify adaptation strategies for Midwest US cropping systems under increased climate variability and change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basso, B.; Dumont, B.

2015-12-01

A systems approach was implemented to assess the impact of management strategies and climate variability on crop yield, nitrate leaching and soil organic carbon across the the Midwest US at a fine scale spatial resolution. We used the SALUS model which designed to simulated yield and environmental outcomes of continous crop rotations under different agronomic management, soil, weather. We extracted soil parameters from the SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic) data of nine Midwest states (IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, MO, OH, SD, WI) and weather from NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis). State specific management itineraries were extracted from USDA-NAS. We present the results different cropping systems (continuous corn, corn-soybean and extended rotations) under different management practices (no-tillage, cover crops and residue management). Simulations were conducted under both the baseline (1979-2014) and projected climatic projections (RCP2.5, 6). Results indicated that climate change would likely have a negative impact on corn yields in some areas and positive in others. Soil N, and C losses can be reduced with the adoption of conservation practices.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

PubMed

Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

2014-03-01

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

The engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation.

PubMed

Williams, Victoria

2007-12-15

Aviation is a growing contributor to climate change, with unique impacts due to the altitude of emissions. If existing traffic growth rates continue, radical engineering solutions will be required to prevent aviation becoming one of the dominant contributors to climate change. This paper reviews the engineering options for mitigating the climate impacts of aviation using aircraft and airspace technologies. These options include not only improvements in fuel efficiency, which would reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but also measures to reduce non-CO2 impacts including the formation of persistent contrails. Integrated solutions to optimize environmental performance will require changes to airframes, engines, avionics, air traffic control systems and airspace design. While market-based measures, such as offset schemes and emissions trading, receive growing attention, this paper sets out the crucial role of engineering in the challenge to develop a 'green air traffic system'.

Aeolian Dunes: New High-Resolution Archives of Past Wind-Intensity and -Direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindhorst, S.; Betzler, C.

2017-12-01

The understanding of the long-term variability of local wind-fields is most relevant for calibrating climate models and for the prediction of the socio-economic consequences of climate change. Continuous instrumental-based weather observations go back less than two centuries; aeolian dunes, however, contain an archive of past wind-field fluctuations which is basically unread. We present new ways to reconstruct annual to seasonal changes of wind intensity and predominant wind direction from dune-sediment composition and -geometries based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, grain-size analyses and different age-dating approaches. Resulting proxy-based data series on wind are validated against instrumental based weather observations. Our approach can be applied to both recent as well as fossil dunes. Potential applications include the validation of climate models, the reconstruction of past supra-regional wind systems and the monitoring of future shifts in the climate system.

Towards a Satellite-Based Near Real-Time Monitoring System for Water Quality; September 27th 2017

EPA Science Inventory

Declining water quality in inland and coastal systems has become, and will continue to be, a major environmental, social and economic problem as human populations increase, agricultural activities expand, and climate change effects on hydrological cycles and extreme events become...

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Estimating landscape-scale impacts of agricultural management on soil carbon using measurements and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schipanski, M.; Rosenzweig, S. T.; Robertson, A. D.; Sherrod, L. A.; Ghimire, R.; McMaster, G. S.

2017-12-01

Agriculture covers 40% of Earth's ice-free land area and has broad impacts on global biogeochemical cycles. While some agricultural management changes are small in scale or impact, others have the potential to shift biogeochemical cycles at landscape and larger scales if widely adopted. Understanding which management practices have the potential to contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation while maintaining productivity requires scaling up estimates spatially and temporally. We used on-farm, long-term, and landscape scale datasets to estimate how crop rotations impact soil organic carbon (SOC) accumulation rates under current and future climate scenarios across the semi-arid Central and Southern Great Plains. We used a stratified, landscape-scale soil sampling approach across 96 farm fields to evaluate crop rotation intensity effects on SOC pools and pesticide inputs. Replacing traditional wheat-fallow rotations with more diverse, continuously cropped rotations increased SOC by 17% and 12% in 0-10 cm and 0-20 cm depths, respectively, and reduced herbicide use by 50%. Using USDA Cropland Data Layer, we estimated soil C accumulation and pesticide reduction potentials of shifting to more intensive rotations. We also used a 30-year cropping systems experiment to calibrate and validate the Daycent model to evaluate rotation intensify effects under future climate change scenarios. The model estimated greater SOC accumulation rates under continuously cropped rotations, but SOC stocks peaked and then declined for all cropping systems beyond 2050 under future climate scenarios. Perennial grasslands were the only system estimated to maintain SOC levels in the future. In the Southern High Plains, soil C declined despite increasing input intensity under current weather while modest gains were simulated under future climate for sorghum-based cropping systems. Our findings highlight the potential vulnerability of semi-arid regions to climate change, which will be compounded by declining groundwater levels along the western edge of the High Plains Aquifer that increase reliance on dryland farming systems. Understanding these challenges provides opportunities to develop future transition and adaptation strategies in partnership with producers, policy makers, and rural communities.

Professional Development in Climate Science Education as a Model for Navigating the Next Generations Science Standards - A High School Science Teacher's Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manning, C.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

The Next Generation Science Standards attempt to move the American K12 education system into the 21st century by focusing on science and engineering practice, crosscutting concepts, and the core ideas of the different disciplines. Putting these standards into practice will challenge a deeply entrenched system and science educators will need significant financial support from state and local governments, professional development from colleges and universities, and the creation of collegial academic networks that will help solve the many problems that will arise. While all of this sounds overwhelming, there are proven strategies and mechanisms already in place. Educators who tackle challenging topics like global climate change are turning to scientists and other like-minded teachers. Many of these teachers have never taken a class in atmospheric science but are expected to know the basics of climate and understand the emerging science as well. Teachers need scientists to continue to reach out and provide rigorous and in-depth professional development opportunities that enable them to answer difficult student questions and deal with community misconceptions about climate science. Examples of such programs include Earthworks, ICEE (Inspiring Climate Education Excellence) and ESSEA (Earth System Science Education Alliance). Projects like CLEAN (Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network) provide excellent resources that teachers can integrate into their lessons. All of these benefit from the umbrella of documents like Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. Support from the aforementioned networks has encouraged the development of effective approaches for teaching climate science. From the perspective of a Geoscience master teacher and instructional coach, this presentation will demonstrate how scientists, researchers, and science education professionals have created models for professional development that create long-term networks supporting teachers who are willing to change how science is being taught right now. There will be specific examples of clearly written, evidence-based tools that address the general public's lack of critical climate knowledge and help to identify and change students' misconceptions. Specific content areas that continue to be overlooked as "common knowledge" but that need to be addressed in both pre- and in-service teacher instruction, textbooks, and online resources will be identified.

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2016-10-01

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

Severe Weather in a Changing Climate: Getting to Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Janssen, E.; Kunkel, K.

2011-12-01

Analyses of observation records from U.S. weather stations indicate there is an increasing trend over recent decades in certain types of severe weather, especially large precipitation events. Widespread changes in temperature extremes have been observed over the last 50 years. In particular, the number of heat waves globally (and some parts of the U.S.) has increased, and there have been widespread increases in the numbers of warm nights. Also, analyses show that we are now breaking twice as many heat records as cold records in the U.S. Since 1957, there has been an increase in the number of historically top 1% of heavy precipitation events across the U.S. Our new analyses of the repeat or reoccurrence frequencies of large precipitation storms are showing that such events are occurring more often than in the past. The pattern of precipitation change is one of increases generally at higher northern latitudes and drying in the tropics and subtropics over land. It needs to be recognized that every weather event that happens nowadays takes place in the context of the changes in the background climate system. So nothing is entirely "natural" anymore. It's a fallacy to think that individual events are caused entirely by any one thing, either natural variation or human-induced climate change. Every event is influenced by many factors. Human-induced climate change is now a factor in weather events. The changes occurring in precipitation are consistent with the analyses of our changing climate. For extreme precipitation, we know that more precipitation is falling in very heavy events. And we know key reasons why; warmer air holds more water vapor, and so when any given weather system moves through, the extra water dumps can lead to a heavy downpour. As the climate system continues to warm, models of the Earth's climate system indicate severe precipitation events will likely become more commonplace. Water vapor will continue to increase in the atmosphere along with the warming, and large precipitation events will likely increase in intensity and frequency. In the presentation, we will not only discuss the recent trends in severe weather and the projections of the impacts of climate change on severe weather in the future, but also specific examples of how this information is being used in developing and applying adaptation policies.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do no

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

Utilization of subsurface microbial electrochemical systems to elucidate the mechanisms of competition between methanogenesis and microbial iron(III)/humic acid reduction in Arctic peat soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedman, E. S.; Miller, K.; Lipson, D.; Angenent, L. T.

2012-12-01

High-latitude peat soils are a major carbon reservoir, and there is growing concern that previously dormant carbon from this reservoir could be released to the atmosphere as a result of continued climate change. Microbial processes, such as methanogenesis and carbon dioxide production via iron(III) or humic acid reduction, are at the heart of the carbon cycle in Arctic peat soils [1]. A deeper understanding of the factors governing microbial dominance in these soils is crucial for predicting the effects of continued climate change. In previous years, we have demonstrated the viability of a potentiostatically-controlled subsurface microbial electrochemical system-based biosensor that measures microbial respiration via exocellular electron transfer [2]. This system utilizes a graphite working electrode poised at 0.1 V NHE to mimic ferric iron and humic acid compounds. Microbes that would normally utilize these compounds as electron acceptors donate electrons to the electrode instead. The resulting current is a measure of microbial respiration with the electrode and is recorded with respect to time. Here, we examine the mechanistic relationship between methanogenesis and iron(III)- or humic acid-reduction by using these same microbial-three electrode systems to provide an inexhaustible source of alternate electron acceptor to microbes in these soils. Chamber-based carbon dioxide and methane fluxes were measured from soil collars with and without microbial three-electrode systems over a period of four weeks. In addition, in some collars we simulated increased fermentation by applying acetate treatments to understand possible effects of continued climate change on microbial processes in these carbon-rich soils. The results from this work aim to increase our fundamental understanding of competition between electron acceptors, and will provide valuable data for climate modeling scenarios. 1. Lipson, D.A., et al., Reduction of iron (III) and humic substances plays a major role in anaerobic respiration in an Arctic peat soil. Journal of Geophysical Research-Biogeosciences, 2010. 115. 2. Friedman, E.S., et al., A cost-effective and field-ready potentiostat that poises subsurface electrodes to monitor bacterial respiration. Biosensors and Bioelectronics, 2012. 32(1): p. 309-313.

Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.

2017-03-01

Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.

Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

2014-01-01

Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

Using FACE systems to screen wheat cultivars for yield increases at elevated CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Because of continuing increases in atmospheric CO2, identifying cultivars of crops with larger yield increases at elevated CO2 may provide an avenue to increase crop yield potential in future climates. Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) systems have most often been used with multiple replications of ea...

Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Zhijin; Sha, Feng; Liu, Yangang

2016-02-02

This five-year award supports the project “Continuous Evaluation of Fast Processes in Climate Models Using ARM Measurements (FASTER)”. The goal of this project is to produce accurate, consistent and comprehensive data sets for initializing both single column models (SCMs) and cloud resolving models (CRMs) using data assimilation. A multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (MS-3DVAR) has been implemented. This MS-3DVAR system is built on top of WRF/GSI. The Community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system is an operational data assimilation system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and has been implemented in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.more » This MS-3DVAR is further enhanced by the incorporation of a land surface 3DVAR scheme and a comprehensive aerosol 3DVAR scheme. The data assimilation implementation focuses in the ARM SGP region. ARM measurements are assimilated along with other available satellite and radar data. Reanalyses are then generated for a few selected period of time. This comprehensive data assimilation system has also been employed for other ARM-related applications.« less

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Progress towards MODIS and VIIRS Cloud Fraction Data Record Continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, S. A.; Frey, R.; Holz, R.; Platnick, S. E.; Heidinger, A. K.

2016-12-01

Satellite-derived clear-sky vs. cloudy-sky discrimination at the pixel scale is an important input parameter used in many real-time applications. Cloud fractions, resulting from integrating over time and space, are also critical to the study of recent decadal climate changes. The NASA NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) has funded a science team to develop and study the ability to make continuous climate records from MODIS (2000-2020) and VIIRS (2012-2030). The MODAWG project, led by Dr. Steve Platnick of NASA/GSFC, combines elements of the MODIS processing system and the NOAA Algorithm Working Group (AWG) to achieve this goal. This presentation will focus on the cloud masking aspects of MODAWG, derived primarily from the MODIS cloud mask (MOD35). Challenges to continuity of cloud detection due to differences in instrument characteristics will be discussed. Cloud mask results from use of the same (continuity) algorithm will be shown for both MODIS and VIIRS, including comparisons to collocated CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) cloud data.

Climate forcings and feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James

1993-01-01

Global temperature has increased significantly during the past century. Understanding the causes of observed global temperature change is impossible in the absence of adequate monitoring of changes in global climate forcings and radiative feedbacks. Climate forcings are changes imposed on the planet's energy balance, such as change of incoming sunlight or a human-induced change of surface properties due to deforestation. Radiative feedbacks are radiative changes induced by climate change, such as alteration of cloud properties or the extent of sea ice. Monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks, if sufficiently precise and long-term, can provide a very strong constraint on interpretation of observed temperature change. Such monitoring is essential to eliminate uncertainties about the relative importance of various climate change mechanisms including tropospheric sulfate aerosols from burning of coal and oil smoke from slash and burn agriculture, changes of solar irradiance changes of several greenhouse gases, and many other mechanisms. The considerable variability of observed temperature, together with evidence that a substantial portion of this variability is unforced indicates that observations of climate forcings and feedbacks must be continued for decades. Since the climate system responds to the time integral of the forcing, a further requirement is that the observations be carried out continuously. However, precise observations of forcings and feedbacks will also be able to provide valuable conclusions on shorter time scales. For example, knowledge of the climate forcing by increasing CFC's relative to the forcing by changing ozone is important to policymakers, as is information on the forcing by CO2 relative to the forcing by sulfate aerosols. It will also be possible to obtain valuable tests of climate models on short time scales, if there is precise monitoring of all forcings and feedbacks during and after events such as a large volcanic eruption or an El Nino.

Self-organization of the climate system: Synchronized polar and oceanic teleconnections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reischmann, Elizabeth Piccard

Synchronization is a widespread phenomenon in nonlinear, physical systems. It describes the phenomena of two or more weakly interacting, nonlinear oscillators adjust their natural frequencies until they come into phase and frequency lock. This behavior has been observed in biological, chemical and electronic systems, including neurons, fireflies, and computers, but has not been widely studied in climate. This thesis presents a study of several major examples of synchronized climatic systems, starting with ice age timings seemingly caused by the global climate's gradual synchronization to the Earth's 413kyr orbital eccentricity band, which may be responsible for the shift of ice age timings and amplitudes at the Mid-Pleistocene transition. The focus of the thesis, however, is centered the second major example of stable synchronization in the climate system: the continuous, 90 degree phase relationship of the polar climate signals for the entirety of the available ice record. The existence of a relationship between polar climates has been widely observed since ice core proxies became available in both Greenland and Antarctica. However, my work focuses on refining this phase relationship, utilizing it's linear nature to apply deconvolution and establish an energy transfer function. This transfer function shows a distinctly singular frequency, suggesting that climate signal is predominately communicated north to south with a period of 1.6kyrs. This narrows down possible mechanisms of polar connection dramatically, and is further investigated via a collection of intermediate proxy datasets and a set of more contemporary, synchronized, sea surface temperature dipoles. While the former fails to show any strong indication of the nature of the polar signal due in part to the overwhelming uncertainties present on the centennial and millennial scales, the latter demonstrates a large set of synchronized climate oscillations exist, communicate in a variety of networks, and have a direct connection to larger climate patterns (in this case, precipitation anomalies). Overall, this thesis represents a clear advance in our understanding of global climate dynamics, presents a new method of climate time series analysis, evidence of 16, stable, synchronized sea surface temperature dipoles, and provides a detailed sediment core database with explanations of age model limitations for future investigation.

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.

2017-01-01

A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs. PMID:29267204

Infectious Diseases, Urbanization and Climate Change: Challenges in Future China

PubMed Central

Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng

2015-01-01

China is one of the largest countries in the world with nearly 20% of the world’s population. There have been significant improvements in economy, education and technology over the last three decades. Due to substantial investments from all levels of government, the public health system in China has been improved since the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak. However, infectious diseases still remain a major population health issue and this may be exacerbated by rapid urbanization and unprecedented impacts of climate change. This commentary aims to explore China’s current capacity to manage infectious diseases which impair population health. It discusses the existing disease surveillance system and underscores the critical importance of strengthening the system. It also explores how the growing migrant population, dramatic changes in the natural landscape following rapid urbanization, and changing climatic conditions can contribute to the emergence and re-emergence of infectious disease. Continuing research on infectious diseases, urbanization and climate change may inform the country’s capacity to deal with emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the future. PMID:26371017

Correlation of seasonal variations in phosphorous and nitrogen species in upper Black Warrior River with duckweed

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gabrielson, F.C. Jr.; Malatino, A.M.; Santa Cruz, G.J.

1980-10-01

Water samples taken throughout the year from a drainage system that had supported giant duckweed blooms were analyzed for nitrogen and phosphorus. Although seasonal separation of the data indicates possible differences within an imppoundment (Bayview Lake), extreme variations make meaningful conclusions difficult. Daily discharge from a large number of points may have masked seasonal differences. Extensive plant mats were present at minimal levels of nitrogen and phosphorus. The growth rate seemed to be governed more by climate than nutrient conditions. Laboratory investigations indicate that giant duckweed can grow under a wide range of nutrient conditions including high heavy metal concentrations.more » Growth rate data show that without a continual input of nutrients, maximum growth rates do not usually continue beyond 14 to 20 days regardless of the initial single element concentration. With a continuous nutrient input, growth would probably only be inhibited by extreme climate conditions.« less

The silent services of the world ocean.

PubMed

Stocker, Thomas F

2015-11-13

The most recent comprehensive assessment carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has concluded that "Human influence on the climate system is clear," a headline statement that was approved by all governments in consensus. This influence will have long-lasting consequences for ecosystems, and the resulting impacts will continue to be felt millennia from now. Although the terrestrial impacts of climate change are readily apparent now and have received widespread public attention, the effects of climate change on the oceans have been relatively invisible. However, the world ocean provides a number of crucial services that are of global significance, all of which come with an increasing price caused by human activities. This needs to be taken into account when considering adaptation to and mitigation of anthropogenic climate change. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

2014-01-01

In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Windblown Dust and Air Quality Under a Changing Climate in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharratt, B. S.; Tatarko, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Fox, F.; Huggins, D. R.

2016-12-01

Wind erosion is a concern for sustainable agriculture and societal health in the US Pacific Northwest. Indeed, wind erosion continues to cause exceedances of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for PM10 in the region. Can we expect air quality to deteriorate or improve as climate changes? Will wind erosion escalate in the future under a warmer and drier climate as forecast for Australia, southern prairies of Canada, northern China, and United States Corn Belt and Colorado Plateau? To answer these questions, we used 18 global climate models, cropping systems simulation model (CropSyst), and the Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) to simulate the complex interactions among climate, crop production, and wind erosion. These simulations were carried out in eastern Washington where wind erosion of agricultural lands contribute to poor air quality in the region. Our results suggest that an increase in temperature and CO2 concentration, coupled with nominal increases in precipitation, will enhance biomass production and reduce soil and PM10 losses by the mid-21st century. This study reveals that climate change may reduce the risk of wind erosion and improve air quality in the Inland Pacific Northwest.

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Griffith, Brad; Joyce, Linda A.; Kareiva, Peter; Keller, Brian D.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Peterson, Charles H.; Scott, J. Michael; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.

2008-01-01

Climate variables are key determinants of geographic distributions and biophysical characteristics of ecosystems, communities, and species. Climate change is therefore affecting many species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue into the future regardless of emissions mitigation, strategies for protecting climate-sensitive ecosystems through management will be increasingly important. While there will always be uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate impacts, and the effects of management, it is both possible and essential for adaptation to proceed using the best available science. This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or natural resource management goals, it is instructive to examine particular goals and processes used by different organizations to fulfill their objectives. Such an examination allows for discussion of specific adaptation options as well as potential barriers and opportunities for implementation. Using this approach, this report presents a series of chapters on the following selected management systems: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. For these chapters, the authors draw on the literature, their own expert opinion, and expert workshops composed of resource management scientists and representatives of managing agencies. The information drawn from across these chapters is then analyzed to develop the key synthetic messages presented below.

Climate change and future wildfire in the western USA: what model projections do and don't tell us

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Littell, J. S.; McKenzie, D.; Cushman, S. A.; Wan, H. Y.

2017-12-01

We developed statistical climate-fire models describing area burned for 70 ecosections in the western U.S. Historically, these ecosections collectively represent a gradient of climate-fire relationships from purely fuel limited (characterized by antecedent positive water balance anomalies and/or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability limited (characterized by antecedent negative water balance anomalies and/or positive energy balance anomalies). Sixty-eight ecosection linear models included significant climate predictors, and 56 ecosections satisfied regression diagnostics, yielding acceptable climate-fire models. There is considerable diversity in seasonality, dominant variables, and prevalence of lagged climatic terms in the climate-fire regression models, indicating variation in mechanisms of climate-fire linkages across ecosystems. This diversity, however, is not random - there is a clear pattern in the fuzzy set membership of the relative dominance of regression predictor variables. This pattern defines a fuel-flammability gradient of limitations, with a tendency toward warm season drought on the flammability end and a tendency toward antecedent moisture on the fuel end. Projected area burned under a multi-model composite future climate scenarios varies, with increasing area burned in 41 ecosections in the West by 2030-2059 (median 132% among 10 purely flammability limited ecosections, median 240% among 25 flammability limited systems with a fuel limitation component, and median 43% among 6 systems with equal control) but decreasing (median -119% among 13 fuel limited systems with a flammability component). For the period 2070-2099, the projected area burned increases much more in the flammability (769%) and flammability-fuel hybrid (442%) systems than those with joint control (139%), and continues to decrease (-178%) in fuel-flammability hybrid systems. Filtering the projected results with fire rotation limits projections biased high by the static assumptions of the statistical models. Exceedence probabilities for 95th%ile fire years increases for the 2040s and 2080s and are largest in exclusively flammability limited ecosections compared with other fuel controls.

Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses—implications for REDD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumpenberger, Marlies; Vohland, Katrin; Heyder, Ursula; Poulter, Benjamin; Macey, Kirsten; Rammig, Anja; Popp, Alexander; Cramer, Wolfgang

2010-01-01

Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD—reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.

Impacts of land use and climate change on carbon dynamics in south-central Senegal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liu, Shu-Guang; Kaire, M.; Wood, Eric C.; Diallo, O.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2004-01-01

Total carbon stock in vegetation and soils was reduced 37% in south-central Senegal from 1900 to 2000. The decreasing trend will continue during the 21st century unless forest clearing is stopped, selective logging dramatically reduced, and climate change, if any, relatively small. Developing a sustainable fuelwood and charcoal production system could be the most feasible and significant carbon sequestration project in the region. If future climate changes dramatically as some models have predicted, cropland productivity will drop more than 65% around 2100, posing a serious threat to food security and the efficiency of carbon sequestration projects.

Climate change: the evidence and our options.

PubMed

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-01-01

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.

Climate Change: The Evidence and Our Options

PubMed Central

Thompson, Lonnie G

2010-01-01

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. PMID:22532707

NASA's future Earth observation plans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeck, Steven P.; Paules, Granville E.; McCuistion Ramesh, J. D.

2004-11-01

NASA's Science Mission Directorate, working with its domestic and international partners, provides accurate, objective scientific data and analysis to advance our understanding of Earth system processes. Learning more about these processes will enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards. Earth interactions occur on a continuum of spatial and temporal scales ranging from short-term weather to long-term climate, and from local and regional to global. Quantitatively describing these changes means precisely measuring from space scores of biological and geophysical parameters globally. New missions that SMD will launch in the coming decade will complement the first series of the Earth Observing System. These next generation systematic measurement missions are being planned to extend or enhance the record of science-quality data necessary for understanding and predicting global change. These missions include the NPOESS Preparatory Project, Ocean Surface Topography Mission, Global Precipitation Measurement, Landsat Data Continuity Mission, and an aerosol polarimetry mission called Glory. New small explorer missions will make first of a kind Earth observations. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory will measure sources and sinks of carbon to help the Nation and the world formulate effective strategies to constrain the amount of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Aquarius will measure ocean surface salinity which is key to ocean circulation in the North Atlantic that produces the current era's mild climate in northern Europe. HYDROS will measure soil moisture globally. Soil moisture is critical to agriculture and to managing fresh water resources. NASA continues to design, develop and launch the Nation's civilian operational environmental satellites, in both polar and geostationary orbits, by agreement with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NASA plans to develop an advanced atmospheric sounder, GIFTS, for geostationary orbit to facilitate continuous measurements of weather-related phenomena, improve "nowcasting" of extreme weather events, and measure important atmospheric gases. NASA is currently developing with its partners the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the next-generation geostationary system, GOES-R. Future missions will migrate today's capabilities in low Earth orbit to higher orbits such as L1 and L2 to enable more continuous monitoring of changes in the Earth system with a smaller number of satellites.

Climate change projections for Greek viticulture as simulated by a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazoglou, Georgia; Anagnostopoulou, Christina; Koundouras, Stefanos

2017-07-01

Viticulture represents an important economic activity for Greek agriculture. Winegrapes are cultivated in many areas covering the whole Greek territory, due to the favorable soil and climatic conditions. Given the dependence of viticulture on climate, the vitivinicultural sector is expected to be affected by possible climatic changes. The present study is set out to investigate the impacts of climatic change in Greek viticulture, using nine bioclimatic indices for the period 1981-2100. For this purpose, reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and data from the regional climatic model Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) are used. It was found that the examined regional climate model estimates satisfactorily these bioclimatic indices. The results of the study show that the increasing trend of temperature and drought will affect all wine-producing regions in Greece. In vineyards in mountainous regions, the impact is positive, while in islands and coastal regions, it is negative. Overall, it should be highlighted that for the first time that Greece is classified into common climatic characteristic categories, according to the international Geoviticulture Multicriteria Climatic Classification System (MCC system). According to the proposed classification, Greek viticulture regions are estimated to have similar climatic characteristics with the warmer wine-producing regions of the world up to the end of twenty-first century. Wine growers and winemakers should take the findings of the study under consideration in order to take measures for Greek wine sector adaptation and the continuation of high-quality wine production.

Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunke, Elizabeth Clare; Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando; Urban, Nathan Mark

This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments inmore » which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.« less

Modeling human-climate interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacoby, Henry D.

If policymakers and the public are to be adequately informed about the climate change threat, climate modeling needs to include components far outside its conventional boundaries. An integration of climate chemistry and meteorology, oceanography, and terrestrial biology has been achieved over the past few decades. More recently the scope of these studies has been expanded to include the human systems that influence the planet, the social and ecological consequences of potential change, and the political processes that lead to attempts at mitigation and adaptation. For example, key issues—like the relative seriousness of climate change risk, the choice of long-term goals for policy, and the analysis of today's decisions when uncertainty may be reduced tomorrow—cannot be correctly understood without joint application of the natural science of the climate system and social and behavioral science aspects of human response. Though integration efforts have made significant contributions to understanding of the climate issue, daunting intellectual and institutional barriers stand in the way of needed progress. Deciding appropriate policies will be a continuing task over the long term, however, so efforts to extend the boundaries of climate modeling and assessment merit long-term attention as well. Components of the effort include development of a variety of approaches to analysis, the maintenance of a clear a division between close-in decision support and science/policy research, and the development of funding institutions that can sustain integrated research over the long haul.

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and socio-economic changes on flow and phosphorus flux in the Ganga river system.

PubMed

Jin, L; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Sinha, R; Futter, M N; Butterfield, D; Caesar, J; Crossman, J

2015-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change has impacted and will continue to impact the natural environment and people around the world. Increasing temperatures and altered rainfall patterns combined with socio-economic factors such as population changes, land use changes and water transfers will affect flows and nutrient fluxes in river systems. The Ganga river, one of the largest river systems in the world, supports approximately 10% global population and more than 700 cities. Changes in the Ganga river system are likely to have a significant impact on water availability, water quality, aquatic habitats and people. In order to investigate these potential changes on the flow and water quality of the Ganga river, a multi-branch version of INCA Phosphorus (INCA-P) model has been applied to the entire river system. The model is used to quantify the impacts from a changing climate, population growth, additional agricultural land, pollution control and water transfers for 2041-2060 and 2080-2099. The results provide valuable information about potential effects of different management strategies on catchment water quality.

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Global Water Clarity: Continuing a Century-Long Monitoring

EPA Science Inventory

Aquatic systems worldwide are changing due to increasing climate variability and human activities, yet it is difficult to capture such temporal changes without standardized long-term observations [Boyce et al. 2015, Barton et al. 2016]. Unlike the well-established Keeling curve t...

Is it feasible to estimate radiosonde biases from interlaced measurements?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremser, Stefanie; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Rust, Henning W.; Bodeker, Greg E.

2018-05-01

Upper-air measurements of essential climate variables (ECVs), such as temperature, are crucial for climate monitoring and climate change detection. Because of the internal variability of the climate system, many decades of measurements are typically required to robustly detect any trend in the climate data record. It is imperative for the records to be temporally homogeneous over many decades to confidently estimate any trend. Historically, records of upper-air measurements were primarily made for short-term weather forecasts and as such are seldom suitable for studying long-term climate change as they lack the required continuity and homogeneity. Recognizing this, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) has been established to provide reference-quality measurements of climate variables, such as temperature, pressure, and humidity, together with well-characterized and traceable estimates of the measurement uncertainty. To ensure that GRUAN data products are suitable to detect climate change, a scientifically robust instrument replacement strategy must always be adopted whenever there is a change in instrumentation. By fully characterizing any systematic differences between the old and new measurement system a temporally homogeneous data series can be created. One strategy is to operate both the old and new instruments in tandem for some overlap period to characterize any inter-instrument biases. However, this strategy can be prohibitively expensive at measurement sites operated by national weather services or research institutes. An alternative strategy that has been proposed is to alternate between the old and new instruments, so-called interlacing, and then statistically derive the systematic biases between the two instruments. Here we investigate the feasibility of such an approach specifically for radiosondes, i.e. flying the old and new instruments on alternating days. Synthetic data sets are used to explore the applicability of this statistical approach to radiosonde change management.

The MedCLIVAR Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Medclivar sg, The

2013-04-01

The MedCLIVAR initiative was first proposed at the 2003 European Geosciences Union assembly in Nice, France. In 2005, it was endorsed by the International Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) office. Subsequently, the MedCLIVAR Research Network Project was formally approved by the European Science Foundation and launched in May 2006 with the support of funding agencies from 12 countries. Since then, MedCLIVAR has served as a scientific network to promote interaction among different scientific disciplines and to develop a multidisciplinary vision of the evolution of the Mediterranean climate through studies that integrate atmospheric, marine, and terrestrial climate components at time scales ranging from paleoreconstructions to future climate scenarios. Presently, the network continues dealing with scientific issues including past climate variability; connections between the Mediterranean and global climate; the Mediterranean Sea circulation and sea level; feedbacks on the global climate system; and regional responses to greenhouse gas, air pollution, and aerosols. Its present activities include the publication of a newsletter, the organization of the next MedCLIVAR conference in 2014 and the publication of a special issue of Regional Environmental Change devoted to the climate of the Mediterranean region.

Visitor’s Guide to Oliktok Point Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility, North Slope of Alaska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desilets, Darin; Helsel, Fred M.; Bendure, Al O.

2016-04-01

The importance of Oliktok Point, Alaska, as a focal point for climate research in the Arctic continues to grow with the addition of a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Monitoring (ARM) Climate Research Facility Mobile Facility (AMF) and the expansion of infrastructure to support airborne measurements. The site hosts a suite of instruments for making multi-year, high-fidelity atmospheric measurements; serves as a base of operations for field campaigns; and contains the only Restricted Airspace and Warning Area in the U.S. Arctic, which enables the use of unmanned aircraft systems. The use of this site by climate researchers involvesmore » several considerations, including its remoteness, harsh climate, and location amid the North Slope oilfields. This guide is intended to help visitors to Oliktok Point navigate this unique physical and administrative environment, and thereby facilitate safe and productive operations.« less

On generic obstructions to recovering correct statistics from climate simulations: Homogenization for deterministic maps and multiplicative noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gottwald, Georg; Melbourne, Ian

2013-04-01

Whereas diffusion limits of stochastic multi-scale systems have a long and successful history, the case of constructing stochastic parametrizations of chaotic deterministic systems has been much less studied. We present rigorous results of convergence of a chaotic slow-fast system to a stochastic differential equation with multiplicative noise. Furthermore we present rigorous results for chaotic slow-fast maps, occurring as numerical discretizations of continuous time systems. This raises the issue of how to interpret certain stochastic integrals; surprisingly the resulting integrals of the stochastic limit system are generically neither of Stratonovich nor of Ito type in the case of maps. It is shown that the limit system of a numerical discretisation is different to the associated continuous time system. This has important consequences when interpreting the statistics of long time simulations of multi-scale systems - they may be very different to the one of the original continuous time system which we set out to study.

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of Western Oregon and Washington, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated shifts associated with global climate change, and these patterns will likely continue due to continuing changes in environmental conditions. Tree growth is controlled by the physiological constraints o...

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Compilation of Abstracts for SC12 Conference Proceedings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morello, Gina Francine (Compiler)

2012-01-01

1 A Breakthrough in Rotorcraft Prediction Accuracy Using Detached Eddy Simulation; 2 Adjoint-Based Design for Complex Aerospace Configurations; 3 Simulating Hypersonic Turbulent Combustion for Future Aircraft; 4 From a Roar to a Whisper: Making Modern Aircraft Quieter; 5 Modeling of Extended Formation Flight on High-Performance Computers; 6 Supersonic Retropropulsion for Mars Entry; 7 Validating Water Spray Simulation Models for the SLS Launch Environment; 8 Simulating Moving Valves for Space Launch System Liquid Engines; 9 Innovative Simulations for Modeling the SLS Solid Rocket Booster Ignition; 10 Solid Rocket Booster Ignition Overpressure Simulations for the Space Launch System; 11 CFD Simulations to Support the Next Generation of Launch Pads; 12 Modeling and Simulation Support for NASA's Next-Generation Space Launch System; 13 Simulating Planetary Entry Environments for Space Exploration Vehicles; 14 NASA Center for Climate Simulation Highlights; 15 Ultrascale Climate Data Visualization and Analysis; 16 NASA Climate Simulations and Observations for the IPCC and Beyond; 17 Next-Generation Climate Data Services: MERRA Analytics; 18 Recent Advances in High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Modeling; 19 Causes and Consequences of Turbulence in the Earths Protective Shield; 20 NASA Earth Exchange (NEX): A Collaborative Supercomputing Platform; 21 Powering Deep Space Missions: Thermoelectric Properties of Complex Materials; 22 Meeting NASA's High-End Computing Goals Through Innovation; 23 Continuous Enhancements to the Pleiades Supercomputer for Maximum Uptime; 24 Live Demonstrations of 100-Gbps File Transfers Across LANs and WANs; 25 Untangling the Computing Landscape for Climate Simulations; 26 Simulating Galaxies and the Universe; 27 The Mysterious Origin of Stellar Masses; 28 Hot-Plasma Geysers on the Sun; 29 Turbulent Life of Kepler Stars; 30 Modeling Weather on the Sun; 31 Weather on Mars: The Meteorology of Gale Crater; 32 Enhancing Performance of NASAs High-End Computing Applications; 33 Designing Curiosity's Perfect Landing on Mars; 34 The Search Continues: Kepler's Quest for Habitable Earth-Sized Planets.

Abrupt hydroclimate disruption across the Australian arid zone 50 ka coincident with human colonization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, G. H.; Fogel, M. L.; Magee, J. W.; Gagan, M. K.

2016-12-01

Although many studies focus on how climate change impacted ancient societies, in Australia a growing body of evidence indicates that activities of the earliest human colonizers in turn altered the Australian climate. We utilize the stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen preserved in near-continuous 100 ka time series of avian eggshell from five regions across the Australian arid zone to reconstruct ecosystem status (d13C) and effective moisture (d18O). Training sets of sub-modern samples provide the basis for the reconstructions. Together, d13C and d18O provide independent estimates of ecosystem status and climate over the past 100 ka from the same dated sample, reducing correlation uncertainties between proxies. Changes in eggshell d13C document a dramatic reduction of palatable summer-wet C4 grasses in all regions between 50 and 45 ka, that has persisted through to modern times. Continuous 100 ka records of effective moisture derived from eggshell d18O show moist conditions from 100 to 60 ka, with variable drying after 60 ka, but the strong shift toward greatest aridity is coincident with the onset of the last glacial maximum 30 ka ago, 15 ka after the observed ecosystem restructuring. Combining the d13C and d18O time-series shows that an abrupt and permanent restructuring of the moisture/ecosystem balance occurred between 50 and 45 ka. Additional studies show that most large monsoon-fed inland arid-zone lakes carried permanent water at least intermittently between 120 and 50 ka, but never experienced permanent deep-water status after 45 ka, despite a wide range of global climate states, including the early Holocene when most other monsoon systems were reinvigorated. The lack of exceptional climate shifts either locally or globally between 60 and 40 ka eliminates climate as the cause of the ecosystem restructuring and persistent lake desiccation. Collectively these data suggest the wave of human colonization across Australia in altered land surface characteristics in a way that reduced the efficiency of the climate system to deliver monsoon moisture to the continental interior. This explanation will now be tested with climate modeling.

Preparing Teachers to Support the Development of Climate Literate Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, N.; Ledley, T. S.; Ellins, K. K.; Bardar, E. W.; Youngman, E.; Dunlap, C.; Lockwood, J.; Mote, A. S.; McNeal, K.; Libarkin, J. C.; Lynds, S. E.; Gold, A. U.

2014-12-01

The EarthLabs climate project includes curriculum development, teacher professional development, teacher leadership development, and research on student learning, all directed at increasing high school teachers' and students' understanding of the factors that shape our planet's climate. The project has developed four new modules which focus on climate literacy and which are part of the larger Web based EarthLabs collection of Earth science modules. Climate related themes highlighted in the new modules include the Earth system with its positive and negative feedback loops; the range of temporal and spatial scales at which climate, weather, and other Earth system processes occur; and the recurring question, "How do we know what we know about Earth's past and present climate?" which addresses proxy data and scientific instrumentation. EarthLabs climate modules use two central strategies to help students navigate the multiple challenges inherent in understanding climate science. The first is to actively engage students with the content by using a variety of learning modes, and by allowing students to pace themselves through interactive visualizations that address particularly challenging content. The second strategy, which is the focus of this presentation, is to support teachers in a subject area where few have substantive content knowledge or technical skills. Teachers who grasp the processes and interactions that give Earth its climate and the technical skills to engage with relevant data and visualizations are more likely to be successful in supporting students' understanding of climate's complexities. This presentation will briefly introduce the EarthLabs project and will describe the steps the project takes to prepare climate literate teachers, including Web based resources, teacher workshops, and the development of a cadre of teacher leaders who are prepared to continue leading the workshops after project funding ends.

Thermal Performance of Vegetative Roofing Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desjarlais, Andre Omer; Zaltash, Abdolreza; Atchley, Jerald Allen

2010-01-01

Vegetative roofing, otherwise known as green or garden roofing, has seen tremendous growth in the last decade in the United States. The numerous benefits that green roofs provide have helped to fuel their resurgence in industrial and urban settings. There are many environmental and economical benefits that can be realized by incorporating a vegetative roof into the design of a building. These include storm-water retention, energy conservation, reduction in the urban heat island effect, increased longevity of the roofing membrane, the ability of plants to create biodiversity and filter air contaminants, and beautification of the surroundings by incorporating green space.more » The vegetative roof research project at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) was initiated to quantify the thermal performance of various vegetative roofing systems relative to black and white roofs. Single Ply Roofing Institute (SPRI) continued its long-term commitment to cooperative research with ORNL in this project. Low-slope roof systems for this study were constructed and instrumented for continuous monitoring in the mixed climate of East Tennessee. This report summarizes the results of the annual cooling and heating loads per unit area of three vegetative roofing systems with side-by-side comparison to black and white roofing systems as well as a test section with just the growing media without plants. Results showed vegetative roofs reduced heat gain (reduced cooling loads) compared to the white control system due to the thermal mass, extra insulation, and evapo-transpiration associated with the vegetative roofing systems. The 4-inch and tray systems reduced the heat gain by approximately 61%, while the reduction with the 8-inch vegetative roof was found to be approximately 67%. The vegetative roofing systems were more effective in reducing heat gain than in reducing heat losses (heating loads). The reduction in heat losses for the 4-inch and tray systems were found to be approximately 40% in the mixed climate of East Tennessee. It should be noted that these values are climate dependent. Vegetative roofs also reduced the temperature (heat exposure) and temperature fluctuations (thermal stress) experienced by the membrane. In the cooling season of East Tennessee, the average peak temperature of the 4-inch and tray systems was found to be approximately 94 F cooler than the control black roofing system. The average temperature fluctuations at the membrane for the 4-inch and tray systems were found to be approximately 10 F compared to 125 F for black and 64 F for white systems. As expected, the 8-inch vegetative roof had the lowest fluctuations at approximately 2 F. Future work will include modeling of the energy performance of vegetative roof panels in the test climate of East Tennessee. The validated model then will be used to predict energy use in roofs with different insulation levels and in climates different from the test climate.« less

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.; ...

2017-01-23

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

CMIP5 Scientific Gaps and Recommendations for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stouffer, R. J.; Eyring, V.; Meehl, G. A.

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is an ongoing coordinated international activity of numerical experimentation of unprecedented scope and impact on climate science. Its most recent phase, the fifth phase (CMIP5), has created nearly 2 PB of output from dozens of experiments performed by dozens of comprehensive climate models available to the climate science research community. In so doing, it has greatly advanced climate science. While CMIP5 has given answers to important science questions, with the help of a community survey we identify and motivate three broad topics here that guided the scientific framework of the next phase of CMIP,more » that is, CMIP6: (1) How does the Earth system respond to changes in forcing? (2) What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? (3) How can we assess future climate changes given internal climate variability, predictability, and uncertainties in scenarios? CMIP has demonstrated the power of idealized experiments to better understand how the climate system works. We expect that these idealized approaches will continue to contribute to CMIP6. The quantification of radiative forcings and responses was poor, and thus it requires new methods and experiments to address this gap. There are a number of systematic model biases that appear in all phases of CMIP that remain a major climate modeling challenge. In conclusion, these biases need increased attention to better understand their origins and consequences through targeted experiments. Improving understanding of the mechanisms’ underlying internal climate variability for more skillful decadal climate predictions and long-term projections remains another challenge for CMIP6.« less

The water footprint of California's energy system, 1990-2012.

PubMed

Fulton, Julian; Cooley, Heather

2015-03-17

California's energy and water systems are interconnected and have evolved in recent decades in response to changing conditions and policy goals. For this analysis, we use a water footprint methodology to examine water requirements of energy products consumed in California between 1990 and 2012. We combine energy production, trade, and consumption data with estimates of the blue and green water footprints of energy products. We find that while California's total annual energy consumption increased by just 2.6% during the analysis period, the amount of water required to produce that energy grew by 260%. Nearly all of the increase in California's energy-related water footprint was associated with water use in locations outside of California, where energy products that the state consumes were, and continue to be, produced. We discuss these trends and the implications for California's future energy system as it relates to climate change and expected water management challenges inside and outside the state. Our analysis shows that while California's energy policies have supported climate mitigation efforts, they have increased vulnerability to climate impacts, especially greater hydrologic uncertainty. More integrated analysis and planning are needed to ensure that climate adaptation and mitigation strategies do not work at cross purposes.

Emerging Methane Sources: A Bang or Whimper? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriss, R. C.

2013-12-01

In this presentation we examine two emerging methane emission sources that may further accelerate climate change in the 21st century: 1) Will fugitive methane emissions associated with the development of unconventional natural gas resources pose a significant threat of accelerating climate change? 2) Will continued warming of Arctic regions destabilize permafrost and methane hydrates rapidly increasing global atmospheric methane that results in a catastrophic climate change emergency? These risks are currently described in two different guises, with unconventional gas as persistent and gradually unfolding threat and Arctic rapid warming and release of methane as a low-probability event that could in an instant change everything. Current research is far from answering the question of whether these emerging methane sources will lead to a climate change bang or whimper. Both issues reflect the need to understand complex environmental and engineered systems as they interact with social and economic forces. While the evolution of energy systems favors methane as a contemporary transition fuel, researchers and practitioners need to address the fugitive methane leakage, reliability, and safety of natural gas systems. The concept of a methane bridge as a viable direction to decarbonization is appealing; it's just not as big or fast a step as many scientists want.

Impact of climate change on crop nutrient and water use efficiencies.

PubMed

Brouder, Sylvie M; Volenec, Jeffrey J

2008-08-01

Implicit in discussions of plant nutrition and climate change is the assumption that we know what to do relative to nutrient management here and now but that these strategies might not apply in a changed climate. We review existing knowledge on interactive influences of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperature and soil moisture on plant growth, development and yield as well as on plant water use efficiency (WUE) and physiological and uptake efficiencies of soil-immobile nutrients. Elevated atmospheric CO(2) will increase leaf and canopy photosynthesis, especially in C3 plants, with minor changes in dark respiration. Additional CO(2) will increase biomass without marked alteration in dry matter partitioning, reduce transpiration of most plants and improve WUE. However, spatiotemporal variation in these attributes will impact agronomic performance and crop water use in a site-specific manner. Nutrient acquisition is closely associated with overall biomass and strongly influenced by root surface area. When climate change alters soil factors to restrict root growth, nutrient stress will occur. Plant size may also change but nutrient concentration will remain relatively unchanged; therefore, nutrient removal will scale with growth. Changes in regional nutrient requirements will be most remarkable where we alter cropping systems to accommodate shifts in ecozones or alter farming systems to capture new uses from existing systems. For regions and systems where we currently do an adequate job managing nutrients, we stand a good chance of continued optimization under a changed climate. If we can and should do better, climate change will not help us.

Response of the North Atlantic surface and intermediate ocean structure to climate warming of MIS 11.

PubMed

Kandiano, Evgenia S; van der Meer, Marcel T J; Schouten, Stefan; Fahl, Kirsten; Sinninghe Damsté, Jaap S; Bauch, Henning A

2017-04-10

Investigating past interglacial climates not only help to understand how the climate system operates in general, it also forms a vital basis for climate predictions. We reconstructed vertical stratification changes in temperature and salinity in the North Atlantic for a period some 400 ka ago (MIS11), an interglacial time analogue of a future climate. As inferred from a unique set of biogeochemical, geochemical, and faunal data, the internal upper ocean stratification across MIS 11 shows distinct depth-dependent dynamical changes related to vertical as well as lateral shifts in the upper Atlantic meridional circulation system. Importantly, transient cold events are recognized near the end of the long phase of postglacial warming at surface, subsurface, mid, and deeper water layers. These data demonstrate that MIS 11 coolings over the North Atlantic were initially triggered by freshwater input at the surface and expansion of cold polar waters into the Subpolar Gyre. The cooling signal was then transmitted downwards into mid-water depths. Since the cold events occurred after the main deglacial phase we suggest that their cause might be related to continuous melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a mechanism that might also be relevant for the present and upcoming climate.

Preface

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia (Editor); Hillel, Daniel (Editor)

2015-01-01

The potential effects of climate change on the food production system are raising concern both globally and regionally. The system is already challenged to deliver sufficient and healthy sustenance to all people, and is certain to be even further challenged as world population grows and price shocks loom. The prospect of climate change intensifies these challenges, raising the risk that more frequent and intense extreme weather events threaten the stability of agricultural production in regions around the globe. This two-part set is an important contribution to the ongoing Imperial College Press (ICP) Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. This series aims to provide the know ledge base necessary for understanding and responding to climate change, in both its current form and future manifestations. In these volumes, ·leading agricultural researchers have come together to contribute their expertise on actual and potential climate change impacts, adaptation strategies, and mitigation efforts. This ongoing series is jointly published by The American Society of Agronomy (ASA), Crop Science Society of America (CSSA), and Soil Science Society of America (SSSA), together with ICP. We hope that this fruitful cooperation will continue for many years to come, as it spurs the global effort to define and meet the great food security and climate change challenges of our time.

Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Extreme heat is a leading weather-related cause of morbidity and mortality, with heat exposure becoming more widespread, frequent, and intense as climates change. The use of heat early warning and response systems (HEWSs) that integrate weather forecasts with risk assessment, communication, and reduction activities is increasingly widespread. HEWSs are frequently touted as an adaptation to climate change, but little attention has been paid to the question of how best to ensure effectiveness of HEWSs as climates change further. In this paper, we discuss findings showing that HEWSs satisfy the tenets of an intervention that facilitates adaptation, but climate change poses challenges infrequently addressed in heat action plans, particularly changes in the onset, duration, and intensity of dangerously warm temperatures, and changes over time in the relationships between temperature and health outcomes. Iterative management should be central to a HEWS, and iteration cycles should be of 5 years or less. Climate change adaptation and implementation science research frameworks can be used to identify HEWS modifications to improve their effectiveness as temperature continues to rise, incorporating scientific insights and new understanding of effective interventions. We conclude that, at a minimum, iterative management activities should involve planned reassessment at least every 5 years of hazard distribution, population-level vulnerability, and HEWS effectiveness. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Advancing drought monitoring using a Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J.

2016-12-01

Drought as a natural hazard, increasingly threatens the sustainability of regional water resources around the world. Given current trends in climate variability and change, droughts are likely to continue and increase. One of the effective ways to mitigate drought impacts may be to use a Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) to improve understanding of the factors that drive the onset and development of drought conditions at local levels would enable planners and end users to more effectively manage and meter out limited water resources. During the presentation, the author will propose a methodological approach to apply sUAS for drought monitoring along with federal regulations and policies.

Representing agriculture in Earth System Models: Approaches and priorities for development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermid, S. S.; Mearns, L. O.; Ruane, A. C.

2017-09-01

Earth System Model (ESM) advances now enable improved representations of spatially and temporally varying anthropogenic climate forcings. One critical forcing is global agriculture, which is now extensive in land-use and intensive in management, owing to 20th century development trends. Agriculture and food systems now contribute nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and require copious inputs and resources, such as fertilizer, water, and land. Much uncertainty remains in quantifying important agriculture-climate interactions, including surface moisture and energy balances and biogeochemical cycling. Despite these externalities and uncertainties, agriculture is increasingly being leveraged to function as a net sink of anthropogenic carbon, and there is much emphasis on future sustainable intensification. Given its significance as a major environmental and climate forcing, there now exist a variety of approaches to represent agriculture in ESMs. These approaches are reviewed herein, and range from idealized representations of agricultural extent to the development of coupled climate-crop models that capture dynamic feedbacks. We highlight the robust agriculture-climate interactions and responses identified by these modeling efforts, as well as existing uncertainties and model limitations. To this end, coordinated and benchmarking assessments of land-use-climate feedbacks can be leveraged for further improvements in ESM's agricultural representations. We suggest key areas for continued model development, including incorporating irrigation and biogeochemical cycling in particular. Last, we pose several critical research questions to guide future work. Our review focuses on ESM representations of climate-surface interactions over managed agricultural lands, rather than on ESMs as an estimation tool for crop yields and productivity.

CERES EBAF Data available in the ArcGIS Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-22

... 28 variables from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 4 Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) data ... climate model evaluation, estimating the Earth's global mean energy budget, and to infer meridional heat transport.  The ASDC will continue ...

Social and economic impacts of climate.

PubMed

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Earth as humans’ habitat: global climate change and the health of populations

PubMed Central

McMichael, Anthony J

2014-01-01

Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction. PMID:24596901

Scientific drilling and the evolution of the earth system: climate, biota, biogeochemistry and extreme systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soreghan, G. S.; Cohen, A. S.

2013-11-01

A US National Science Foundation-funded workshop occurred 17-19 May 2013 at the University of Oklahoma to stimulate research using continental scientific drilling to explore earth's sedimentary, paleobiological and biogeochemical record. Participants submitted 3-page "pre-proposals" to highlight projects that envisioned using drill-core studies to address scientific issues in paleobiology, paleoclimatology, stratigraphy and biogeochemistry, and to identify locations where key questions can best be addressed. The workshop was also intended to encourage US scientists to take advantage of the exceptional capacity of unweathered, continuous core records to answer important questions in the history of earth's sedimentary, biogeochemical and paleobiologic systems. Introductory talks on drilling and coring methods, plus best practices in core handling and curation, opened the workshop to enable all to understand the opportunities and challenges presented by scientific drilling. Participants worked in thematic breakout sessions to consider questions to be addressed using drill cores related to glacial-interglacial and icehouse-greenhouse transitions, records of evolutionary events and extinctions, records of major biogeochemical events in the oceans, reorganization of earth's atmosphere, Lagerstätte and exceptional fossil biota, records of vegetation-landscape change, and special sampling requirements, contamination, and coring tool concerns for paleobiology, geochemistry, geochronology, and stratigraphy-sedimentology studies. Closing discussions at the workshop focused on the role drilling can play in studying overarching science questions about the evolution of the earth system. The key theme, holding the most impact in terms of societal relevance, is understanding how climate transitions have driven biotic change, and the role of pristine, stratigraphically continuous cores in advancing our understanding of this linkage. Scientific drilling, and particularly drilling applied to continental targets, provides unique opportunities to obtain continuous and unaltered material for increasingly sophisticated analyses, tapping the entire geologic record (extending through the Archean), and probing the full dynamic range of climate change and its impact on biotic history.

Technical fixes and Climate Change: Optimizing for Risks and Consequences

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rasch, Philip J.

2010-09-16

Scientists and society in general are becoming increasingly concerned about the risks of climate change from the emission of greenhouse gases [IPCC, 2007]. Yet emissions continue to increase [Raupach et al., 2007], and reductions soon enough to avoid large and undesirable impacts requires a near revolutionary global transformation of energy and transportation systems [Hoffert et al., 1998]. The size of the transformation and lack of an effective societal response has motivated some to explore other quite controversial strategies to mitigate some of the planetary consequences of these emissions.

Climate change's impact on key ecosystem services and the human well-being they support in the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Erik J.; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Arkema, Katie; Geller, Gary; Girvetz, Evan; Goodrich, Dave; Matzek, Virginia; Pinsky, Malin; Reid, Walt; Saunders, Martin; Semmens, Darius J.; Tallis, Heather

2013-01-01

Climate change alters the functions of ecological systems. As a result, the provision of ecosystem services and the well-being of people that rely on these services are being modified. Climate models portend continued warming and more frequent extreme weather events across the US. Such weather-related disturbances will place a premium on the ecosystem services that people rely on. We discuss some of the observed and anticipated impacts of climate change on ecosystem service provision and livelihoods in the US. We also highlight promising adaptive measures. The challenge will be choosing which adaptive strategies to implement, given limited resources and time. We suggest using dynamic balance sheets or accounts of natural capital and natural assets to prioritize and evaluate national and regional adaptation strategies that involve ecosystem services.

Shared Knowledge for Decision-making on Environment and Health Issues in the Arctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

This paper will describe a remote sensing and GIs-based system to bring indigenous traditional knowledge together with contemporary scientific knowledge to address impacts resulting from changes in climate, environment, weather and pollution in the Arctic. As scientists and policy-makers from both indigenous and non-indigenous communities continue to build closer partnerships to address common sustainability issues such as the health impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities, it becomes increasingly important to create shared information management systems which integrate all relevant factors for optimal information sharing and decision-making. This system is being designed to bring together remotely sensed, indigenous and other data and observations for analysis, measuring, and monitoring parameters of interest (e.g., snow cover, rainfall, temperature, ice conditions, vegetation, infrastructure, fires). A description of the system and its components as well as a preliminary application of the system in the Arctic will be presented.

Continuously on-­going regional climate hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Piringer, Martin; Kaufmann, Hildegard; Knauder, Werner; Resch, Gernot; Andre, Konrad

2017-04-01

Observational data for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM is forced by ERAinterim and optimized for the Alpine Region. The simulation available for the period of 1979-2015 in a spatial resolution of about 10km is prolonged ongoing and fullfils the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the Northeast. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure or the calculation the separation distances between livestock farming and residential area.

Spatial and Climate Literacy: Connecting Urban and Rural Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gorokhovich, Y.

2013-12-01

Through a collaboration between the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, four independent but linked modules were developed and piloted in courses offered at Brooklyn College and UNL simultaneously. Module content includes climate change science and literacy principles, using geospatial technologies (GIS, GPS and remote sensing) as a vehicle to explore issues associated with global, regional, and local climate change in a concrete, quantitative and visual way using Internet resources available through NASA, NOAA, USGS, and a variety of universities and organizations. The materials take an Earth system approach and incorporate sustainability, resilience, water and watersheds, weather and climate, and food security topics throughout the semester. The research component of the project focuses on understanding the role of spatial literacy and authentic inquiry based experiences in climate change understanding and improving confidence in teaching science. In particular, engaging learners in both climate change science and GIS simultaneously provides opportunities to examine questions about the role that data manipulation, mental representation, and spatial literacy plays in students' abilities to understand the consequences and impacts of climate change. Pre and post surveys were designed to discern relationships between spatial cognitive processes and effective acquisition of climate change science concepts in virtual learning environments as well as alignment of teacher's mental models of nature of science and climate system dynamics to scientific models. The courses will again be offered simultaneously in Spring 2014 at Brooklyn College and UNL. Evaluation research will continue to examine the connections between spatial and climate literacy and teacher's mental models (via qualitative textual analysis using MAXQDA text analysis, and UCINET social network analysis programs) as well as how urban-rural learning interactions may influence climate literacy.

Advancing Climate Literacy through Investment in Science Education Faculty, and Future and Current Science Teachers: Providing Professional Learning, Instructional Materials, and a Model for Locally-Relevant and Culturally-Responsive Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halversen, C.; Apple, J. K.; McDonnell, J. D.; Weiss, E.

2014-12-01

The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) call for 5th grade students to "obtain and combine information about ways individual communities use science ideas to protect Earth's resources and environment". Achieving this, and other objectives in NGSS, will require changes in the educational system for both students and teachers. Teachers need access to high quality instructional materials and continuous professional learning opportunities starting in pre-service education. Students need highly engaging and authentic learning experiences focused on content that is strategically interwoven with science practices. Pre-service and early career teachers, even at the secondary level, often have relatively weak understandings of the complex Earth systems science required for understanding climate change and hold alternative ideas and naïve beliefs about the nature of science. These naïve understandings cause difficulties in portraying and teaching science, especially considering what is being called for in NGSS. The ACLIPSE program focuses on middle school pre-service science teachers and education faculty because: (1) the concepts that underlie climate change align well with the disciplinary core ideas and practices in NGSS for middle grades; and (2) middle school is a critical time for capturing students interest in science as student engagement by eighth grade is the most effective predictor of student pursuit of science in high school and college. Capturing student attention at this age is critical for recruitment to STEM careers and lifelong climate literacy. THE ACLIPSE program uses cutting edge research and technology in ocean observing systems to provide educators with new tools to engage students that will lead to deeper understanding of the interactions between the ocean and climate systems. Establishing authentic, meaningful connections between indigenous and place-based, and technological climate observations will help generate a more holistic perspective on climate change and demonstrate that observing systems can enhance understanding. ACLIPSE materials strive to translate research about climate change effectively into understandable narratives of real world phenomena using ocean data, creating meaningful pathways into ocean-climate science for students in ALL communities.

Comparison of different synthetic 5-min rainfall time series on the results of rainfall runoff simulations in urban drainage modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krämer, Stefan; Rohde, Sophia; Schröder, Kai; Belli, Aslan; Maßmann, Stefanie; Schönfeld, Martin; Henkel, Erik; Fuchs, Lothar

2015-04-01

The design of urban drainage systems with numerical simulation models requires long, continuous rainfall time series with high temporal resolution. However, suitable observed time series are rare. As a result, usual design concepts often use uncertain or unsuitable rainfall data, which renders them uneconomic or unsustainable. An expedient alternative to observed data is the use of long, synthetic rainfall time series as input for the simulation models. Within the project SYNOPSE, several different methods to generate synthetic rainfall data as input for urban drainage modelling are advanced, tested, and compared. Synthetic rainfall time series of three different precipitation model approaches, - one parametric stochastic model (alternating renewal approach), one non-parametric stochastic model (resampling approach), one downscaling approach from a regional climate model-, are provided for three catchments with different sewer system characteristics in different climate regions in Germany: - Hamburg (northern Germany): maritime climate, mean annual rainfall: 770 mm; combined sewer system length: 1.729 km (City center of Hamburg), storm water sewer system length (Hamburg Harburg): 168 km - Brunswick (Lower Saxony, northern Germany): transitional climate from maritime to continental, mean annual rainfall: 618 mm; sewer system length: 278 km, connected impervious area: 379 ha, height difference: 27 m - Friburg in Brisgau (southern Germany): Central European transitional climate, mean annual rainfall: 908 mm; sewer system length: 794 km, connected impervious area: 1 546 ha, height difference 284 m Hydrodynamic models are set up for each catchment to simulate rainfall runoff processes in the sewer systems. Long term event time series are extracted from the - three different synthetic rainfall time series (comprising up to 600 years continuous rainfall) provided for each catchment and - observed gauge rainfall (reference rainfall) according national hydraulic design standards. The synthetic and reference long term event time series are used as rainfall input for the hydrodynamic sewer models. For comparison of the synthetic rainfall time series against the reference rainfall and against each other the number of - surcharged manholes, - surcharges per manhole, - and the average surcharge volume per manhole are applied as hydraulic performance criteria. The results are discussed and assessed to answer the following questions: - Are the synthetic rainfall approaches suitable to generate high resolution rainfall series and do they produce, - in combination with numerical rainfall runoff models - valid results for design of urban drainage systems? - What are the bounds of uncertainty in the runoff results depending on the synthetic rainfall model and on the climate region? The work is carried out within the SYNOPSE project, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): Scaling the Earth System Grid to Petascale Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

2007-09-27

This report, which summarizes work carried out by the ESG-CET during the period April 1, 2007 through September 30, 2007, includes discussion of overall progress, period goals, highlights, collaborations and presentations. To learn more about our project, please visit the Earth System Grid website. In addition, this report will be forwarded to the DOE SciDAC project management, the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (OBER) project management, national and international stakeholders (e.g., the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5), the Climate Science Computational End Station (CCES), etc.), and collaborators. Themore » ESG-CET executive committee consists of David Bernholdt, ORNL; Ian Foster, ANL; Don Middleton, NCAR; and Dean Williams, LLNL. The ESG-CET team is a collective of researchers and scientists with diverse domain knowledge, whose home institutions include seven laboratories (ANL, LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL, PMEL) and one university (ISI/USC); all work in close collaboration with the project's stakeholders and domain researchers and scientists. During this semi-annual reporting period, the ESG-CET increased its efforts on completing requirement documents, framework design, and component prototyping. As we strove to complete and expand the overall ESG-CET architectural plans and use-case scenarios to fit our constituency's scope of use, we continued to provide production-level services to the community. These services continued for IPCC AR4, CCES, and CCSM, and were extended to include Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) data.« less

Implementation of Web Processing Services (WPS) over IPSL Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadygrov, Nikolay; Denvil, Sebastien; Carenton, Nicolas; Levavasseur, Guillaume; Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten

2016-04-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is aimed to provide access to climate data for the international climate community. ESGF is a system of distributed and federated nodes that dynamically interact with each other. ESGF user may search and download climatic data, geographically distributed over the world, from one common web interface and through standardized API. With the continuous development of the climate models and the beginning of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the amount of data available from ESGF will continuously increase during the next 5 years. IPSL holds a replication of the different global and regional climate models output, observations and reanalysis data (CMIP5, CORDEX, obs4MIPs, etc) that are available on the IPSL ESGF node. In order to let scientists perform analysis of the models without downloading vast amount of data the Web Processing Services (WPS) were installed at IPSL compute node. The work is part of the CONVERGENCE project founded by French National Research Agency (ANR). PyWPS implementation of the Web processing Service standard from Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) in the framework of birdhouse software is used. The processes could be run by user remotely through web-based WPS client or by using command-line tool. All the calculations are performed on the server side close to the data. If the models/observations are not available at IPSL it will be downloaded and cached by WPS process from ESGF network using synda tool. The outputs of the WPS processes are available for download as plots, tar-archives or as NetCDF files. We present the architecture of WPS at IPSL along with the processes for evaluation of the model performance, on-site diagnostics and post-analysis processing of the models output, e.g.: - regriding/interpolation/aggregation - ocgis (OpenClimateGIS) based polygon subsetting of the data - average seasonal cycle, multimodel mean, multimodel mean bias - calculation of the climate indices with icclim library (CERFACS) - atmospheric modes of variability In order to evaluate performance of any new model, once it became available in ESGF, we implement WPS with several model diagnostics and performance metrics calculated using ESMValTool (Eyring et al., GMDD 2015). As a further step we are developing new WPS processes and core-functions to be implemented at ISPL ESGF compute node following the scientific community needs.

Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

2007-05-01

Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently marginal areas if precipitations decrease.

Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

. Earth's history reveals that climate is sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet's energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite the climate system's great inertia, climate changes are emerging above the 'noise' of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are 'in the pipeline'. There is a clear and present danger of the climate passing certain 'tipping points', climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks guarantee large relatively rapid changes with no additional climate forcing. The fact that we are close to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will minimize many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and fresh water shortages. Actions required to stabilize climate, including prompt phase-out of coal emissions, are defined well enough by our understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs. These actions would also yield cleaner air and water, with ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation. Yet the actions required to stabilize climate are not being pursued. Denial of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and reactionary governments has been replaced by 'greenwash'. The policies of even the 'greenest' nations are demonstrably impotent for the purpose of averting climate disasters. I conclude that inaction stems in large part from 'success' of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. The consequence is intergenerational inequity and injustice, affecting negatively the young and the unborn. The defense of prior generations, that they 'did not know', is no longer viable. Indeed, actions by fossil fuel interests that served to deceive the public about the dangers of human-made climate change raise questions of ethics and legal liabilities. Youth, at least those who are not too young or unborn, have recourse through democratic systems, but continued failure of the political process may cause increasing public protests.

Sprouted barley for dairy cows: Nutritional composition and digestibility

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A 4-unit dual-flow continuous culture fermentor system was used to assess the effect of supplementing 7-d sprouted barley or barley grain with an haylage or pasture diet on nutrient digestibility and methane output. Barley grain was sprouted in climate controlled growth chambers, to be used as part ...

Special Issue From the 4th USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Greenhouse gases emitted from agricultural and forest systems continue to be a topic of interest because of their potential role in the global climate and the potential monetary return in the form of carbon credits from the adoption of mitigation strategies. There are several challenges in the scien...

Networking the "Bush"--Is There Anyone out There?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franklin, Janice

2013-01-01

Local rural communities and individuals are increasingly disarmed by the socially transforming processes of post modern times including the globalisation of rural production systems and trade. There is a new climate "in the bush" that is imbued with a deep suspicion that globalisation processes will continue to threaten the…

Tradeoffs in the quest for climate smart agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso, Brazil

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Although there has been significant growth in productivity in livestock production systems in Brazil over the last decades, the greatest environmental challenge in the Amazon and Cerrado is the continued prevalence of low productivity cattle ranching, usually linked to high greenhouse gas (GHG) emis...

The Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) - A Building America Energy Efficient Housing Partnership

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb Aldrich; Lois Arena; Dianne Griffiths

2010-12-31

This final report summarizes the work conducted by the Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) (http://www.carb-swa.com/), one of the 'Building America Energy Efficient Housing Partnership' Industry Teams, for the period January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010. The Building America Program (BAP) is part of the Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Program (BTP). The long term goal of the BAP is to develop cost effective, production ready systems in five major climate zones that will result in zero energy homes (ZEH) that produce as much energy as they use on an annual basis bymore » 2020. CARB is led by Steven Winter Associates, Inc. with Davis Energy Group, Inc. (DEG), MaGrann Associates, and Johnson Research, LLC as team members. In partnership with our numerous builders and industry partners, work was performed in three primary areas - advanced systems research, prototype home development, and technical support for communities of high performance homes. Our advanced systems research work focuses on developing a better understanding of the installed performance of advanced technology systems when integrated in a whole-house scenario. Technology systems researched included: - High-R Wall Assemblies - Non-Ducted Air-Source Heat Pumps - Low-Load HVAC Systems - Solar Thermal Water Heating - Ventilation Systems - Cold-Climate Ground and Air Source Heat Pumps - Hot/Dry Climate Air-to-Water Heat Pump - Condensing Boilers - Evaporative condensers - Water Heating CARB continued to support several prototype home projects in the design and specification phase. These projects are located in all five program climate regions and most are targeting greater than 50% source energy savings over the Building America Benchmark home. CARB provided technical support and developed builder project case studies to be included in near-term Joule Milestone reports for the following community scale projects: - SBER Overlook at Clipper Mill (mixed, humid climate) - William Ryan Homes - Tampa (hot, humid climate).« less

Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Tachie-Obeng, E.

2009-01-01

Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha−1 year−1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha−1 year−1. To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century.

Large-Scale and Global Hydrology. Chapter 92

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodell, Matthew; Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato; Koster, Randal; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Famiglietti, James S.; Lakshmi, Venkat

2016-01-01

Powered by the sun, water moves continuously between and through Earths oceanic, atmospheric, and terrestrial reservoirs. It enables life, shapes Earths surface, and responds to and influences climate change. Scientists measure various features of the water cycle using a combination of ground, airborne, and space-based observations, and seek to characterize it at multiple scales with the aid of numerical models. Over time our understanding of the water cycle and ability to quantify it have improved, owing to advances in observational capabilities, the extension of the data record, and increases in computing power and storage. Here we present some of the most recent estimates of global and continental ocean basin scale water cycle stocks and fluxes and provide examples of modern numerical modeling systems and reanalyses.Further, we discuss prospects for predicting water cycle variability at seasonal and longer scales, which is complicated by a changing climate and direct human impacts related to water management and agriculture. Changes to the water cycle will be among the most obvious and important facets of climate change, thus it is crucial that we continue to invest in our ability to monitor it.

Global Food Security in a Changing Climate: Considerations and Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, M. K.; Brown, M. E.; Backlund, P. W.; Antle, J. M.; Carr, E. R.; Easterling, W. E.; Funk, C. C.; Murray, A.; Ngugi, M.; Barrett, C. B.; Ingram, J. S. I.; Dancheck, V.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Mata, T.; Ojima, D. S.; Grace, K.; Jiang, H.; Bellemare, M.; Attavanich, W.; Ammann, C. M.; Maletta, H.

2015-12-01

Global food security is an elusive challenge and important policy focus from the community to the globe. Food is provisioned through food systems that may be simple or labyrinthine, yet each has vulnerabilities to climate change through its effects on food production, transportation, storage, and other integral food system activities. At the same time, the future of food systems is sensitive to socioeconomic trajectories determined by choices made outside of the food system, itself. Constrictions for any reason can lead to decreased food availability, access, utilization, or stability - that is, to diminished food security. Possible changes in trade and other U.S. relationships to the rest of the world under changing conditions to the end of the century are considered through integrated assessment modelling under a range of emissions scenarios. Climate change is likely to diminish continued progress on global food security through production disruptions leading to local availability limitations and price increases, interrupted transport conduits, and diminished food safety, among other causes. In the near term, some high-latitude production export regions may benefit from changes in climate. The types and price of food imports is likely to change, as are export demands, affecting U.S. consumers and producers. Demands placed on foreign assistance programs may increase, as may demand for advanced technologies. Adaptation across the food system has great potential to manage climate change effects on food security, and the complexity of the food system offers multiple potential points of intervention for decision makers at every level. However, effective adaptation is subject to highly localized conditions and socioeconomic factors, and the technical feasibility of an adaptive intervention is not necessarily a guarantee of its application if it is unaffordable or does not provide benefits within a relatively short time frame.

Influence of orographic precipitation on the incision within a mountain-piedmont system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, Valeria; Carretier, Sébastien; Bonnet, Stephane

2017-04-01

The geomorphological evolution of a mountain-piedmont system depends both on tectonics and climate, as well as on couplings between the mountain and its piedmont. Although the interactions between climate and tectonics are a fundamental point for understanding the landscape evolution, the erosion of a mountain range and the sediment deposition at the mountain front, or piedmont, have been poorly studied as a coupled system. Here we focus on the conditions driving an incision within such a system. Classically, it is thought that incision results from a change in climate or uplift rates. However, it is not clear which are the specific conditions that favor the occurrence of river incision in the piedmont. In particular, studies have shown that the presence of a piedmont can modify the incision patterns, and even drive autogenic incision, without any change in external forcings. This is a crucial issue in order to interpret natural incisions in terms of uplift or climatic modifications. Such a problem is further complicated by the modification of local precipitations and temperatures during uplift, because the progressive effect of climate change may superimpose to uplift. In this work we explore the hypothesis that a mountain-piedmont coupled system may develop incision in its piedmont as a result of enhanced orographic precipitations during surface uplift. We use a landscape evolution model, Cidre, in order to explore the response of a mountain-piemont system in which the mountain is continuously uplifted but in which precipitation rates depend on elevations. Thus precipitation amounts change during the mountain uplift. We test different peaks and amplitudes of the orographic precipitation pattern, maintaining the other conditions constant. Preliminary results show that elevation-dependent precipitations drive temporary but pronounced incisions of the main rivers within the piedmont, contrary to experiments without orographic precipitations.

An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.

2017-12-01

A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

Application of Remote Sensing to Assess the Impact of Short Term Climate Variability on Coastal Sedimentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menzel, W. Paul; Huh, Oscar K.; Walker, Nan

2004-01-01

The purpose of this joint University of Wisconsin (UW) and Louisiana State University (LSU) project has been to relate short term climate variation to response in the coastal zone of Louisiana in an attempt to better understand how the coastal zone is shaped by climate variation. Climate variation in this case largely refers to variation in surface wind conditions that affect wave action and water currents in the coastal zone. The primary region of focus was the Atchafalaya Bay and surrounding bays in the central coastal region of Louisiana. Suspended solids in the water column show response to wind systems both in quantity (through resuspension) and in the pattern of dispersement or transport. Wind systems associated with cold fronts are influenced by short term climate variation. Wind energy was used as the primary signature of climate variation in this study because winds are a significant influence on sediment transport in the micro-tidal Gilf of Mexico coastal zone. Using case studies, the project has been able to investigate the influence of short term climate variation on sediment transport. Wind energy data, collected daily for National Weather Service (NWS) stations at Lake Charles and New Orleans, LA, were used as an indicator of short term climate variation influence on seasonal time scales. A goal was to relate wind energy to coastal impact through sediment transport. This goal was partially accomplished by combining remote sensing and wind energy data. Daily high resolution remote sensing observations are needed to monitor the complex coastal zone environment, where winds, tides, and water level all interact to influence sediment transport. The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) era brings hope for documenting and revealing response of the complex coastal transport mosaic through regular high spatial resolution observations from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument. MODIS observations were sampled in this project for information content and should continue to be viewed as a resource for coastal zone monitoring. The project initialized the effort to transfer a suspended sediment concentration (SSC) algorithm to the MODIS platform for case 2 waters. MODIS enables monitoring of turbid coastal zones around the globe. The MODIS SSC algorithm requires refinements in the atmospheric aerosol contribution, sun glint influence, and designation of the sediment inherent optical properties (IOPs); the framework for continued development is in place with a plan to release the algorithm to the MODIS direct broadcast community.

Analysis of Factors in Technological and Vocational School Teachers' Perceived Organizational Innovative Climate and Continuous Use of E-Teaching: Using Computer Self-Efficacy as an Intervening Variable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chou, Chun-Mei; Hsiao, His-Chi; Shen, Chien-Hua; Chen, Su-Chang

2010-01-01

This study aims to analyze the correlation (N = 335) among technological and vocational school teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate, computer self-efficacy, and continuous use of e-teaching in Taiwan. Teachers' perceived organizational innovative climate includes five factors, namely, job autonomy, innovative leadership, resource…

The response of terrestrial ecosystems to global climate change: Towards an integrated approach

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad

2008-01-01

Accumulating evidence points to an anthropogenic 'fingerprint' on the global climate change that has occurred in the last century. Climate change has, and will continue to have, profound effects on the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. As such, there is a critical need to continue to develop a sound scientific basis for national and...

Comparison Of In Situ Soil Moisture Measurements: An Examination of the Neutron and Dielectric Measurements within the Illinois Climate Network

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The continuity of soil moisture time series data is crucial for climatic research. Yet, a common problem for continuous data series is the changing of sensors, not only as replacements are necessary, but as technologies evolve. The Illinois Climate Network has one of the longest data records of soi...

Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

2014-12-01

Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective impact on climate literacy can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/mgwndtr.

Constraining the long-term climate reponse to stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection by the short-term volcanic climate response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plazzotta, M.; Seferian, R.; Douville, H.; Kravitz, B.; Tilmes, S.; Tjiputra, J.

2016-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions are leading to global warming and climate change, which will have multiple impacts on human society. Geoengineering methods like solar radiation management by stratospheric sulfate aerosols injection (SSA-SRM) aim at treating the symptoms of climate change by reducing the global temperature. Since a real-world testing cannot be implemented, Earth System Models (ESMs) are useful tools to assess the climate impacts of such geoengineering methods. However, coordinated simulations performed with the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) have shown that climate cooling in response to a continuous injection of 5Tg of SO2 per year under RCP45 future projection (the so-called G4 experiment) differs substantially between ESMs. Here, we employ a volcano analog approach to constrain the climate response in SSA-SRM geoengineering simulations across an ensemble of 10 ESMs. We identify an emergent relationship between the long-term cooling in responses to the mitigation of the clear-sky surface downwelling shortwave radiation (RSDSCS), and the short-term cooling related to the change in RSDSCS during the major tropical volcanic eruptions observed over the historical period (1850-2005). This relationship explains almost 80% of the multi-model spread. Combined with contemporary observations of the latest volcanic eruptions (satellite observations and model reanalyzes), this relationship provides a tight constraint on the climate impacts of SSA-SRM. We estimate that a continuous injection of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere will reduce the global average temperature of continental land surface by 0.47 K per W m-2, impacting both hydrological and carbon cycles. Compared with the unconstrained ESMs ensemble (range from 0.32 to 0.92 K per W m-2 ), our estimate represents much higher confidence ways to assess the impacts of SSA-SRM on the climate while ruling the most extreme projections of the unconstrained ensemble extremely unlikely.

Potential climate engineering effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario

PubMed Central

Keller, David P.; Feng, Ellias Y.; Oschlies, Andreas

2014-01-01

The realization that mitigation efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have, until now, been relatively ineffective has led to an increasing interest in climate engineering as a possible means of preventing the potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change. While many studies have addressed the potential effectiveness of individual methods there have been few attempts to compare them. Here we use an Earth system model to compare the effectiveness and side effects of afforestation, artificial ocean upwelling, ocean iron fertilization, ocean alkalinization and solar radiation management during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario. We find that even when applied continuously and at scales as large as currently deemed possible, all methods are, individually, either relatively ineffective with limited (<8%) warming reductions, or they have potentially severe side effects and cannot be stopped without causing rapid climate change. Our simulations suggest that the potential for these types of climate engineering to make up for failed mitigation may be very limited. PMID:24569320

A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

2016-06-01

The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

Six climate change-related events in the United States accounted for about $14 billion in lost lives and health costs.

PubMed

Knowlton, Kim; Rotkin-Ellman, Miriam; Geballe, Linda; Max, Wendy; Solomon, Gina M

2011-11-01

The future health costs associated with predicted climate change-related events such as hurricanes, heat waves, and floods are projected to be enormous. This article estimates the health costs associated with six climate change-related events that struck the United States between 2000 and 2009. The six case studies came from categories of climate change-related events projected to worsen with continued global warming-ozone pollution, heat waves, hurricanes, infectious disease outbreaks, river flooding, and wildfires. We estimate that the health costs exceeded $14 billion, with 95 percent due to the value of lives lost prematurely. Actual health care costs were an estimated $740 million. This reflects more than 760,000 encounters with the health care system. Our analysis provides scientists and policy makers with a methodology to use in estimating future health costs related to climate change and highlights the growing need for public health preparedness.

Global Grazing Systems: Their Continuing Importance in Meeting Global Demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, K. F.; D'Odorico, P.

2014-12-01

Animal production exerts significant demand on land, water and food resources and is an extensive means by which humans modify natural systems. Demand for animal source foods has more than tripled over the past 50 years due to population growth and dietary change. To meet this demand, livestock intensification (e.g. concentrated animal feeding operations) has increased and with it the water, nitrogen and carbon footprints of animal production. However, grass-fed systems continue to contribute significantly to overall animal production. To date, little is known about the contributions of grass- and grain-fed systems to animal calorie production, how this has changed through time and to what extent these two systems are sensitive to climate. Using a calorie-based approach we hypothesize that grain-fed systems are increasing in importance (with serious implications for water and nutrient demand) and that rangeland productivity is correlated with rainfall. Our findings show that grass-fed systems made up the majority of animal calorie production since 1960 years but that the relative contribution of grain-fed system has increased (from 27% to 49%). This rapid transition towards grain-fed animal production is largely a result of changing diets demand, as we found the growth of grass-fed production only kept pace with population growth. On a regional scale, we find that Asia has been the major contributor to the increase in grass-fed animal calorie production and that Africa has undergone the most drastic transition from grass-fed to grain-fed dependence. Finally, as expected we see a positive relationship between rangeland productivity and precipitation and a shift from dairy- to meat-dominated production going from drier to wetter climates. This study represents a new means of analyzing the food security of animal products and an important step in understanding the historic trends of animal production, their relation to climate, their prospects for the future and their implications for freshwater resources and nutrient cycling.

Earth System Modeling 2.0: A Blueprint for Models That Learn From Observations and Targeted High-Resolution Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Tapio; Lan, Shiwei; Stuart, Andrew; Teixeira, João.

2017-12-01

Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and methods from data assimilation and machine learning make it possible to integrate global observations and local high-resolution simulations in an Earth system model (ESM) that systematically learns from both and quantifies uncertainties. Here we propose a blueprint for such an ESM. We outline how parameterization schemes can learn from global observations and targeted high-resolution simulations, for example, of clouds and convection, through matching low-order statistics between ESMs, observations, and high-resolution simulations. We illustrate learning algorithms for ESMs with a simple dynamical system that shares characteristics of the climate system; and we discuss the opportunities the proposed framework presents and the challenges that remain to realize it.

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

2016-01-01

With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Parametric decadal climate forecast recalibration (DeFoReSt 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasternack, Alexander; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark A.; Rust, Henning W.; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2018-01-01

Near-term climate predictions such as decadal climate forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. For near-term probabilistic predictions to be useful, systematic errors of the forecasting systems have to be corrected. While methods for the calibration of probabilistic forecasts are readily available, these have to be adapted to the specifics of decadal climate forecasts including the long time horizon of decadal climate forecasts, lead-time-dependent systematic errors (drift) and the errors in the representation of long-term changes and variability. These features are compounded by small ensemble sizes to describe forecast uncertainty and a relatively short period for which typically pairs of reforecasts and observations are available to estimate calibration parameters. We introduce the Decadal Climate Forecast Recalibration Strategy (DeFoReSt), a parametric approach to recalibrate decadal ensemble forecasts that takes the above specifics into account. DeFoReSt optimizes forecast quality as measured by the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). Using a toy model to generate synthetic forecast observation pairs, we demonstrate the positive effect on forecast quality in situations with pronounced and limited predictability. Finally, we apply DeFoReSt to decadal surface temperature forecasts from the MiKlip prototype system and find consistent, and sometimes considerable, improvements in forecast quality compared with a simple calibration of the lead-time-dependent systematic errors.

[Confronting the Health-Related Challenges of Climate Change: Nursing Education for the Future].

PubMed

Wu, Pei-Chih; Lee, Chi-Chen

2016-08-01

Climate change is the greatest threat to public health in the 21st century. The increasing health impact of heat waves, the increasing magnitudes and spatial expansions of vector and water-borne diseases epidemics, and the increasing medical burdens of biological allergic illnesses, worsening local air pollution, and other related issues are expected to continue to increase in severity in the near future. All of these issues are global problems that must be faced. Adaptation strategies and action plans related to climate change are needed and emerging. Moreover, integrating the basic concepts, scientific evidences, and new technology into public and professional education systems is already recognized as a priority in the national adaptation program. Nurses stand on the frontlines of medical care and health communication. The integration of climate change and adaptation to climate change into nursing education and training is become increasingly important. This article reviews both the expected health impacts of climate change and the mitigation and adaptation strategies that have been proposed / adopted by medical care facilities around the world. Further, we outline the current, priority needs for action in medical care facilities in Taiwan in order to mitigate and adapt to climate-change-related healthcare issues. Additionally, we present an integrated strategic plan for educating healthcare professionals, including nurse, in the future. We hope that the ideas that are presented in this paper encourage multidisciplinary cooperation and help bridge the gap between technology development and practical application in Taiwan's medical care system.

Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willems, Patrick; Batelaan, Okke; Hughes, Denis A.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

2014-01-01

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

The GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vömel, H.; Berger, F. H.; Immler, F. J.; Seidel, D.; Thorne, P.

2009-04-01

While the global upper-air observing network has provided useful observations for operational weather forecasting for decades, its measurements lack the accuracy and long-term continuity needed for understanding climate change. Consequently, the scientific community faces uncertainty on such key issues as the trends of temperature in the upper troposphere and stratosphere or the variability and trends of stratospheric water vapour. To address these shortcomings, and to ensure that future climate records will be more useful than the records to date, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program initiated the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN). GRUAN will be a network of about 30-40 observatories with a representative sampling of geographic regions and surface types. These stations will provide upper-air reference observations of the essential climate variables, i.e. temperature, geopotential, humidity, wind, radiation and cloud properties using specialized radiosondes and complementary remote sensing profiling instrumentation. Long-term stability, quality assurance / quality control, and a detailed assessment of measurement uncertainties will be the key aspects of GRUAN observations. The network will not be globally complete but will serve to constrain and adjust data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems including satellites and the current radiosonde networks. This paper outlines the scientific rationale for GRUAN, its role in the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, network requirements and likely instrumentation, management structure, current status and future plans.

Strategies for conserving forest genetic resources in the face of climate change

Treesearch

John Bradley St. Clair; Glenn Thomas Howe

2011-01-01

Conservation of genetic diversity is important for continued evolution of populations to new environments, as well as continued availability of traits of interest in genetic improvement programs. Rapidly changing climates present new threats to the conservation of forest genetic resources. We can no longer assume that in situ reserves will continue to preserve existing...

Continuous measurement of soil evaporation in a drip-irrigated wine vineyard in a desert area

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Evaporation from the soil surface (E) can be a significant source of water loss in arid areas. In sparsely vegetated systems, E is expected to be a function of soil, climate, irrigation regime, precipitation patterns, and plant canopy development, and will therefore change dynamically at both daily ...

Planning the Next Decade of Coordinated Research to Better Understand and Simulate Marine Low Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, Robert; Jensen, Michael P.; Wang, Jian; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Burrows, Susannah M.; Del Genio, Anthony; Fridlind, Ann M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ghate, Virendra P.; Kollias, Pavlos;

Planning the Next Decade of Coordinated Research to Better Understand and Simulate Marine Low Clouds

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wood, Robert; Jensen, Michael P.; Wang, Jian

Marine low clouds have a large impact on the Earth’s energy and hydrologic cycle. They strongly reflect incoming solar radiation, with little compensating impact on outgoing longwave radiation resulting in a net cooling of the climate. The representation of marine low clouds in climate models is one of the largest uncertainties in the estimation of climate sensitivity (e.g. Bony and Dufresne 2005), and marine low clouds are critical mediators of global aerosol radiative forcing (Zelinka et al. 2014). Despite the importance of these cloud systems to the Earth’s climate, their parameterization continues to be challenging, due to an incomplete understandingmore » of key processes that regulate them and insufficient resolution of these processes in models. To help define research pathways to address outstanding issues related to our understanding of marine low clouds, a workshop was held January 27-29, 2016 at Brookhaven National Laboratory. The overarching goal was to identify current gaps in knowledge or simulation capabilities and promising strategies for addressing them, with a particular emphasis on improving the representation of marine low clouds in climate models and contributions that could be made with U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric System Research support using Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility measurements.« less

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2017-12-01

Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, < 0.25% of the total Noachian. What climate models can account for the VNS? 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming and melting events for the VNs origin is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

2012-12-01

Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the results of the earlier decisions, as simulated by C-ROADS. Preliminary evaluations show that both exercises have the potential to provide powerful learning experiences. University students who played World Climate in a climate change course cited it as one of the course activities "promoting the most learning." Students' responses on anonymous surveys and open-ended questions revealed that the experience affected them at visceral, as well as intellectual levels. All of the students recommended that the exercise be continued in future years and many felt that it was the most important learning experience of the semester. Similarly, understanding of climate change and the dynamics of the climate improved for the majority of Future Climate participants, and 90% of participants stated that they were more likely to take action to address climate change on a personal level because of their experience.

An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaye, J. A.

2009-12-01

The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could lead to rapid changes in ice-sheet dynamics that could impact future sea-level rise and tipping points in biological systems (including those that may be associated with ocean acidification). 5. Improve understanding of the most effective ways to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as unintended consequences of such actions. Research will help to identify the desired mix of mitigation options necessary to control the rate and magnitude of climate change, and to examine possible unintended consequences of mitigation options. 6. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is important to improve understanding of how to enhance society’s capacity to adapt to a changing climate in the context of other environmental stresses.

Climate Change Vulnerability of Agro-Ecosystems: Does socio-economic factors matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surendran Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.; King, A. W.; Mei, R.; Post, W. M.

2013-12-01

Climate variability and change has direct impacts on agriculture. Despite continual adaptation to climate as well as gains in technology innovation and adoption, agriculture is still vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation expected in coming decades. Generally, researchers use two major methodologies to understand the vulnerability of agro-ecosystems to climate change: process-based crop models and empirical models. However, these models are not yet designed to capture the influence of socioeconomic systems on agro-ecosystem processes and outcomes.. However, socioeconomic processes are an important factor driving agro-ecological responses to biophysical processes (climate, topography and soil), because of the role of human agency in mediating the response of agro-ecosystems to climate. We have developed a framework that integrates socioeconomic and biophysical characteristics of agro-ecosystems using cluster analysis and GIS tools. This framework has been applied to the U.S. Southeast to define unique socio-ecological domains for agriculture. The results demonstrate that socioeconomic characteristics are an important factor influencing agriculture production. These results suggest that the lack of attention to socioeconomic conditions and human agency in agro-ecological modeling creates a potential bias with respect to the representation of climate change impacts.

Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate.

PubMed

Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan

2015-09-01

Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Allogenic and Autogenic Controls on Carbon Uptake and Release since Mid-Holocene Peat Initiation in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Packalen, M.; Finkelstein, S. A.; McLaughlin, J.

2014-12-01

Current interglacial development of a nearly continuous peat cover in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada has resulted in a globally significant carbon (C) reservoir. Yet, the fate of peatland C stores and related climate system feedbacks remain uncertain under scenarios of a changing climate and enhanced anthropogenic pressure. Here, we examine peatland development in the HBL in relation to Holocene C-dynamics, together with records of paleo- and modern climate, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and paleoenvironmental change. We report that the timing of peat initiation is tightly coupled with GIA in the HBL, while peatland age, trophic status, and paleoclimate contribute to explaining some of the temporal variation in C accumulation rates (CARs). Our results show that CARs are greatest from younger, minerotrophic peatlands and in association with warmer Holocene climates. Peat initiation rates and CARs in the HBL were greatest during the mid-Holocene; however, model evidence indicates that two-thirds of the HBL C pool is stored in peat of late Holocene age, owing to long-term peatland expansion and development. Since mid-Holocene peat initiation, the HBL has been a net C-sink and currently stores ~ 30 Pg C, with spatial climate patterns accounting for up to half of the C-mass distribution. Yet, the HBL has also been a modest C-source since peat initiation, with 85% of the losses occurring during the late Holocene. Our results indicate that the HBL may have been a potential terrestrial source of 1 - 7 Tg CH4 y-1 to the late Holocene atmosphere, due to the decay of previously accrued peat, under wetter conditions than present, and from a landscape occupied by an abundance of minerotrophic peatlands. While the peatlands of the HBL may continue to function as a globally significant C reservoir, conservative climate scenarios predict a warmer and wetter HBL in the next century that may lie outside the range of past climate variability. Disproportionate hydroclimatic change may alter the net water balance in the HBL resulting in C losses that may have important implications for the global C budget and climate system. Further investigation regarding autogenic and allogenic controls on spatial-temporal C dynamics is warranted and may contribute to reducing the uncertainty concerning the HBL's potential to remain a long-term net C-sink.

Progress towards MODIS and VIIRS Cloud Optical Property Data Record Continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, K.; Platnick, S. E.; Wind, G.; Amarasinghe, N.; Holz, R.; Ackerman, S. A.; Heidinger, A. K.

2016-12-01

The launch of Suomi NPP in the fall of 2011 began the next generation of U.S. operational polar orbiting Earth observations, and its VIIRS imager provides an opportunity to extend the 15+ year climate data record of MODIS EOS. Similar to MODIS, VIIRS provides visible through IR observations at moderate spatial resolution with a 1330 LT equatorial crossing consistent with the MODIS on the Aqua platform. However, unlike MODIS, VIIRS lacks key water vapor and CO2 absorbing channels used for high cloud detection and cloud-top property retrievals, and there is a significant change in the spectral location of the 2.1μm shortwave-infrared channel used for cloud optical/microphysical retrievals and cloud thermodynamic phase. Given these instrument differences between MODIS EOS and VIIRS S-NPP/JPSS, we discuss our progress towards merging the MODIS observational record with VIIRS in order to generate cloud optical property climate data record continuity across the observing systems. The MODIS-VIIRS continuity algorithm for cloud optical property retrievals leverages heritage algorithms that produce the existing MODIS cloud optical and microphysical properties product (MOD06); the NOAA AWG/CLAVR-x cloud-top property algorithm and a common MODIS-VIIRS cloud mask feed into the optical property algorithm. To account for the different channel sets of MODIS and VIIRS, each algorithm nominally uses a subset of channels common to both imagers. Data granule and aggregated examples for the current version of the continuity algorithm (MODAWG) will be shown. In addition, efforts to reconcile apparent radiometric biases between analogous channels of the two imagers, a critical consideration for obtaining inter-sensor climate data record continuity, will be discussed.

The Economic Value of Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2012-12-01

While demonstrating the economic value of science is challenging, it can be more direct for some Earth observations. For example, suppose a climate science mission can yield decisive information on climate change within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) provides a standard for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, stipulating uncertainty in climate sensitivity, using discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate response (DICE Optimal), and a strong response (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we would switch from BAU to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain also depends on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The resolving power of a climate observing system cannot exceed climate system natural variability. All climate observations add noise to natural variability caused by observing limitations, including calibration errors and space/time sampling uncertainty. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can advance the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. We present illustrative results comparing the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change and cloud feedback (i.e. climate sensitivity uncertainty). While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to an improved climate observing system, since societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of CLARREO in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars. Among the noteworthy conclusions are (1) switching to either the DICE optimal or Stern emissions paths makes only a modest difference in the VOI of CLARREO, (2) raising the trigger value from 0.2C to 0.3C/decade, increases the VOI of CLARREO, while increasing the total NPV of climate damages, and (3) the choice of discount rate affects the VOI by a factor ~ 5. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

How can climate change and engineered water conveyance affect sediment dynamics in the San Francisco Bay-Delta system?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Achete, Fernanda; Van der Wegen, Mick; Roelvink, Jan Adriaan; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Suspended sediment concentration is an important estuarine health indicator. Estuarine ecosystems rely on the maintenance of habitat conditions, which are changing due to direct human impact and climate change. This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change relative to engineering measures on estuarine fine sediment dynamics and sediment budgets. We use the highly engineered San Francisco Bay-Delta system as a case study. We apply a process-based modeling approach (Delft3D-FM) to assess the changes in hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics resulting from climate change and engineering scenarios. The scenarios consider a direct human impact (shift in water pumping location), climate change (sea level rise and suspended sediment concentration decrease), and abrupt disasters (island flooding, possibly as the results of an earthquake). Levee failure has the largest impact on the hydrodynamics of the system. Reduction in sediment input from the watershed has the greatest impact on turbidity levels, which are key to primary production and define habitat conditions for endemic species. Sea level rise leads to more sediment suspension and a net sediment export if little room for accommodation is left in the system due to continuous engineering works. Mitigation measures like levee reinforcement are effective for addressing direct human impacts, but less effective for a persistent, widespread, and increasing threat like sea level rise. Progressive adaptive mitigation measures to the changes in sediment and flow dynamics resulting from sea level rise may be a more effective strategy. Our approach shows that a validated process-based model is a useful tool to address long-term (decades to centuries) changes in sediment dynamics in highly engineered estuarine systems. In addition, our modeling approach provides a useful basis for long-term, process-based studies addressing ecosystem dynamics and health.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.

PubMed

Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

PubMed Central

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation. PMID:27625660

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

PubMed

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Introduction to focus issue: Synchronization in large networks and continuous media—data, models, and supermodels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duane, Gregory S.; Grabow, Carsten; Selten, Frank; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic systems has increasingly found applications to large networks of differential equations and to models of continuous media. These applications are at the core of the present Focus Issue. Synchronization between a system and its model, based on limited observations, gives a new perspective on data assimilation. Synchronization among different models of the same system defines a supermodel that can achieve partial consensus among models that otherwise disagree in several respects. Finally, novel methods of time series analysis permit a better description of synchronization in a system that is only observed partially and for a relatively short time. This Focus Issue discusses synchronization in extended systems or in components thereof, with particular attention to data assimilation, supermodeling, and their applications to various areas, from climate modeling to macroeconomics.

Introduction to focus issue: Synchronization in large networks and continuous media-data, models, and supermodels.

PubMed

Duane, Gregory S; Grabow, Carsten; Selten, Frank; Ghil, Michael

2017-12-01

The synchronization of loosely coupled chaotic systems has increasingly found applications to large networks of differential equations and to models of continuous media. These applications are at the core of the present Focus Issue. Synchronization between a system and its model, based on limited observations, gives a new perspective on data assimilation. Synchronization among different models of the same system defines a supermodel that can achieve partial consensus among models that otherwise disagree in several respects. Finally, novel methods of time series analysis permit a better description of synchronization in a system that is only observed partially and for a relatively short time. This Focus Issue discusses synchronization in extended systems or in components thereof, with particular attention to data assimilation, supermodeling, and their applications to various areas, from climate modeling to macroeconomics.

Recovering Paleo-Records from Antarctic Ice-Cores by Coupling a Continuous Melting Device and Fast Ion Chromatography.

PubMed

Severi, Mirko; Becagli, Silvia; Traversi, Rita; Udisti, Roberto

2015-11-17

Recently, the increasing interest in the understanding of global climatic changes and on natural processes related to climate yielded the development and improvement of new analytical methods for the analysis of environmental samples. The determination of trace chemical species is a useful tool in paleoclimatology, and the techniques for the analysis of ice cores have evolved during the past few years from laborious measurements on discrete samples to continuous techniques allowing higher temporal resolution, higher sensitivity and, above all, higher throughput. Two fast ion chromatographic (FIC) methods are presented. The first method was able to measure Cl(-), NO3(-) and SO4(2-) in a melter-based continuous flow system separating the three analytes in just 1 min. The second method (called Ultra-FIC) was able to perform a single chromatographic analysis in just 30 s and the resulting sampling resolution was 1.0 cm with a typical melting rate of 4.0 cm min(-1). Both methods combine the accuracy, precision, and low detection limits of ion chromatography with the enhanced speed and high depth resolution of continuous melting systems. Both methods have been tested and validated with the analysis of several hundred meters of different ice cores. In particular, the Ultra-FIC method was used to reconstruct the high-resolution SO4(2-) profile of the last 10,000 years for the EDML ice core, allowing the counting of the annual layers, which represents a key point in dating these kind of natural archives.

Implications of climate change for northern Canada: freshwater, marine, and terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Wrona, Fred J; Reist, James D

2009-07-01

Climate variability and change is projected to have significant effects on the physical, chemical, and biological components of northern Canadian marine, terrestrial, and freshwater systems. As the climate continues to change, there will be consequences for biodiversity shifts and for the ranges and distribution of many species with resulting effects on availability, accessibility, and quality of resources upon which human populations rely. This will have implications for the protection and management of wildlife, fish, and fisheries resources; protected areas; and forests. The northward migration of species and the disruption and competition from invading species are already occurring and will continue to affect marine, terrestrial, and freshwater communities. Shifting environmental conditions will likely introduce new animal-transmitted diseases and redistribute some existing diseases, affecting key economic resources and some human populations. Stress on populations of iconic wildlife species, such as the polar bear, ringed seals, and whales, will continue as a result of changes in critical sea-ice habitat interactions. Where these stresses affect economically and culturally important species, they will have significant effects on people and regional economies. Further integrated, field-based monitoring and research programs, and the development of predictive models are required to allow for more detailed and comprehensive projections of change to be made, and to inform the development and implementation of appropriate adaptation, wildlife, and habitat conservation and protection strategies.

Flow networks for Ocean currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupikina, Liubov; Molkenthin, Nora; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2014-05-01

Complex networks have been successfully applied to various systems such as society, technology, and recently climate. Links in a climate network are defined between two geographical locations if the correlation between the time series of some climate variable is higher than a threshold. Therefore, network links are considered to imply heat exchange. However, the relationship between the oceanic and atmospheric flows and the climate network's structure is still unclear. Recently, a theoretical approach verifying the correlation between ocean currents and surface air temperature networks has been introduced, where the Pearson correlation networks were constructed from advection-diffusion dynamics on an underlying flow. Since the continuous approach has its limitations, i.e., by its high computational complexity, we here introduce a new, discrete construction of flow-networks, which is then applied to static and dynamic velocity fields. Analyzing the flow-networks of prototypical flows we find that our approach can highlight the zones of high velocity by degree and transition zones by betweenness, while the combination of these network measures can uncover how the flow propagates within time. We also apply the method to time series data of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Current and the Gulf Stream ocean current for the changing velocity fields, which could not been done before, and analyse the properties of the dynamical system. Flow-networks can be powerful tools to theoretically understand the step from system's dynamics to network's topology that can be analyzed using network measures and is used for shading light on different climatic phenomena.

Climate, fire size, and biophysical setting control fire severity and spatial pattern in the northern Cascade Range, USA

Treesearch

C. Alina Cansler; Donald. McKenzie

2014-01-01

Warmer and drier climate over the past few decades has brought larger fire sizes and increased annual area burned in forested ecosystems of western North America, and continued increases in annual area burned are expected due to climate change. As warming continues, fires may also increase in severity and produce larger contiguous patches of severely burned areas. We...

Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data. Summary of A Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McConnell, M.; Weidman, S.

2009-01-01

Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques have yielded high quality, readily accessible data. However, rapid increases in data volume have also led to large and complex datasets that pose significant challenges in data analysis (NRC, 2007). Uncertainty characterization is needed for every satellite mission and scientists continue to be challenged by the need to reduce the uncertainty in remotely sensed climate records and projections. The approaches currently used to quantify the uncertainty in remotely sensed data, including statistical methods used to calibrate and validate satellite instruments, lack an overall mathematically based framework.

Biogeosystem Technique as a method to correct the climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalinitchenko, Valery; Batukaev, Abdulmalik; Batukaev, Magomed; Minkina, Tatiana

2017-04-01

The climate change and uncertainties of biosphere are on agenda. Correction o the climate drivers will make the climate and biosphere more predictable and certain. Direct sequestration of fossil industrial hydrocarbons and natural methane excess for greenhouse effect reduction is a dangerous mistake. Most quantity of carbon now exists in the form of geological deposits and further reduction of carbon content in biosphere and atmosphere leads to degradation of life. We propose the biological management of the greenhouse gases changing the ratio of biological and atmospheric phases of carbon and water cycle. The biological correction of carbon cycle is the obvious measure because the biological alterations of the Earth's climate have ever been an important peculiarity of the Planet's history. At the first stage of the Earth's climate correction algorithm we use the few leading obvious principal as follows: The more greenhouse amount in atmosphere, the higher greenhouse effect; The more biological production of terrestrial ecosystem, the higher carbon dioxide biological sequestration from atmosphere; The more fresh ionized active oxygen biological production, the higher rate of methane and hydrogen sulfide oxidation in atmosphere, water and soil; The more quantity of carbon in the form of live biological matter in soil and above-ground biomass, the less quantity of carbon in atmosphere; The less sink of carbon to water system, the less emission of greenhouse gases from water system; The less rate of water consumption per unit of biological production, the less transpiration rate of water vapor as a greenhouse gas; The higher intra-soil utilization of mortal biomass, biological and mineral wastes into the plant nutrition instead of its mineralization to greenhouse gases, the less greenhouse effect; The more fossil industrial hydrocarbons are used, the higher can be Earth's biomass; The higher biomass on the Earth, the more of ecology safe food, raw material and biofuel can be produced; The less energy is consumed for climate correction, the better. The proposed algorithm was never discussed before because most of its ingredients were unenforceable. Now the possibility to execute the algorithm exists in the framework of our new scientific-technical branch - Biogeosystem Technique (BGT*). The BGT* is a transcendental (non-imitating natural processes) approach to soil processing, regulation of energy, matter, water fluxes and biological productivity of biosphere: intra-soil machining to provide the new highly productive dispersed system of soil; intra-soil pulse continuous-discrete plants watering to reduce the transpiration rate and water consumption of plants for 5-20 times; intra-soil environmentally safe return of matter during intra-soil milling processing and (or) intra-soil pulse continuous-discrete plants watering with nutrition. Are possible: waste management; reducing flow of nutrients to water systems; carbon and other organic and mineral substances transformation into the soil to plant nutrition elements; less degradation of biological matter to greenhouse gases; increasing biological sequestration of carbon dioxide in terrestrial system's photosynthesis; oxidizing methane and hydrogen sulfide by fresh photosynthesis ionized biologically active oxygen; expansion of the active terrestrial site of biosphere. The high biological product output of biosphere will be gained. BGT* robotic systems are of low cost, energy and material consumption. By BGT* methods the uncertainties of climate and biosphere will be reduced. Key words: Biogeosystem Technique, method to correct, climate

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

2015-12-01

Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate change education community, and how the collective impact can be increased.

Integrating Climate and Ecosystem-Response Sciences in Temperate Western North American Mountains: The CIRMOUNT Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, C. I.; Fagre, D. B.

2004-12-01

Mountain regions are uniquely sensitive to changes in climate, vulnerable to climate effects on biotic and physical factors of intense social concern, and serve as critical early-warning systems of climate impacts. Escalating demands on western North American (WNA) mountain ecosystems increasingly stress both natural resources and rural community capacities; changes in mountain systems cascade to issues of national concern. Although WNA has long been a focus for climate- and climate-related environmental research, these efforts remain disciplinary and poorly integrated, hindering interpretation into policy and management. Knowledge is further hampered by lack of standardized climate monitoring stations at high-elevations in WNA. An initiative is emerging as the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) whose primary goal is to improve knowledge of high-elevation climate systems and to better integrate physical, ecological, and social sciences relevant to climate change, ecosystem response, and natural-resource policy in WNA. CIRMOUNT seeks to focus research on climate variability and ecosystem response (progress in understanding synoptic scale processes) that improves interpretation of linkages between ecosystem functions and human processing (progress in understanding human-environment integration), which in turn would yield applicable information and understanding on key societal issues such as mountains as water towers, biodiversity, carbon forest sinks, and wildland hazards such as fire and forest dieback (progress in understanding ecosystem services and key thresholds). Achieving such integration depends first on implementing a network of high-elevation climate-monitoring stations, and linking these with integrated ecosystem-response studies. Achievements since 2003 include convening the 2004 Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium (1, 2) and several special sessions at technical conferences; initiating a biennial mountain climate research symposium (MTNCLIM), the first to be held in spring 2005; developing a strategy for climate-monitoring in WNA; installing and networking high-elevation (>3000m) climate-monitoring stations; and completing three target regions (Glacier National Park, MT; Sierra Nevada and White Mountains, CA) of the international GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) plant-monitoring project, the first in WNA. CIRMOUNT emphasizes integration at the regional scale in WNA, collaborating with and complementing projects such as the Western Mountain Initiative, whose mandate is more targeted than CIRMOUNT's, and global programs such as GLORIA and the international Mountain Research Initiative. Achievement of continuing success in WNA hinges on the capacity to secure long-term funding and institutional investment. (1) See associated URL for paper and poster pdfs (2) Discussing the future of western U.S. mountains, climate change, and ecosystems. EOS 31 August 2004, 85(35), p. 329

Future Flight Opportunities and Calibration Protocols for CERES: Continuation of Observations in Support of the Long-Term Earth Radiation Budget Climate Data Record

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Priestley, Kory J.; Smith, George L.

2010-01-01

The goal of the Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project is to provide a long-term record of radiation budget at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), within the atmosphere, and at the surface with consistent cloud and aerosol properties at climate accuracy. CERES consists of an integrated instrument-algorithm validation science team that provides development of higher-level products (Levels 1-3) and investigations. It involves a high level of data fusion, merging inputs from 25 unique input data sources to produce 18 CERES data products. Over 90% of the CERES data product volume involves two or more instruments. Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals . Five CERES instruments have flown on three different spacecraft: TRMM, EOS-Terra and EOS-Aqua. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS have agreed to fly the existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft in 2011 and to procure an additional CERES Sensor with modest upgrades for flight on the JPSS C1 spacecraft in 2014, followed by a CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018. CERES is a scanning broadband radiometer that measures filtered radiance in the SW (0.3-5 m), total (TOT) (0.3-200 m) and WN (8-12 m) regions. Pre-launch calibration is performed on each Flight Model to meet accuracy requirements of 1% for SW and 0.5% for outgoing LW observations. Ground to flight or in-flight changes are monitored using protocols employing onboard and vicarious calibration sources. Studies of flight data show that SW response can change dramatically due to optical contamination. with greatest impact in blue-to UV radiance, where tungsten lamps are largely devoid of output. While science goals remain unchanged for ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood that achieving these goals is more difficult for two reasons. The first is an increased understanding of the dynamics of the Earth/atmosphere system which demonstrates that separation of natural variability from anthropogenic change on decadal time scales requires observations with higher accuracy and stabilit

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E

2017-01-01

Abstract Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. PMID:29149298

Carbon dioxide and climate: a second assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

For over a century, concern has been expressed that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO/sub 2/) concentration could affect global climate by changing the heat balance of the atmosphere and Earth. Observations reveal steadily increasing concentrations of CO/sub 2/, and experiments with numerical climate models indicate that continued increase would eventually produce significant climatic change. Comprehensive assessment of the issue will require projection of future CO/sub 2/ emissions and study of the disposition of this excess carbon in the atmosphere, ocean, and biota; the effect on climate; and the implications for human welfare. This study focuses on one aspect, estimationmore » of the effect on climate of assumed future increases in atmospheric CO/sub 2/. Conclusions are drawn principally from present-day numerical models of the climate system. To address the significant role of the oceans, the study also makes use of observations of the distributions of anthropogenic tracers other than CO/sub 2/. The rapid scientific developments in these areas suggest that periodic reassessments will be warranted. The starting point for the study was a similar 1979 review by a Climate Research Board panel chaired by the late Jule G. Charney. The present study has not found any new results that necessitate substantial revision of the conclusions of the Charney report.« less

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Suk, Jonathan E

2018-02-01

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. © FEMS 2017.

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

2011-01-01

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates assessment of current and future consequences of a changing climate, emphasizes regional differences in biophysical factors, and points to linkages that may exist but that currently lack supporting research. The framework also serves as a visual tool for resource managers and policy makers to develop regional and global management strategies and to inform policies related to climate mitigation and adaptation.

Integrating observation and statistical forecasts over sub-Saharan Africa to support Famine Early Warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Verdin, James P.; Husak, Gregory

2007-01-01

Famine early warning in Africa presents unique challenges and rewards. Hydrologic extremes must be tracked and anticipated over complex and changing climate regimes. The successful anticipation and interpretation of hydrologic shocks can initiate effective government response, saving lives and softening the impacts of droughts and floods. While both monitoring and forecast technologies continue to advance, discontinuities between monitoring and forecast systems inhibit effective decision making. Monitoring systems typically rely on high resolution satellite remote-sensed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and rainfall imagery. Forecast systems provide information on a variety of scales and formats. Non-meteorologists are often unable or unwilling to connect the dots between these disparate sources of information. To mitigate these problem researchers at UCSB's Climate Hazard Group, NASA GIMMS and USGS/EROS are implementing a NASA-funded integrated decision support system that combines the monitoring of precipitation and NDVI with statistical one-to-three month forecasts. We present the monitoring/forecast system, assess its accuracy, and demonstrate its application in food insecure sub-Saharan Africa.

Millennial Scale Rapid Climate Change Events of the last 60kya as Observed in Multiple Stalagmites from The Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehterian, S.; Arienzo, M. M.; Pourmand, A.; Broad, K.; Kakuk, B.; Swart, P. K.

2016-12-01

Nine stalagmites collected from various depths of a submerged cave system on the island of Abaco, Bahamas comprise a continuous record of oxygen isotopic variation between 7.3 to 63kyr. The depths from which the speleothems were collected range from 12m to 37m. The youngest age of the speleothems reflect the inundation of the cave system by rising sea level. Millennial scale rapid climate change events can be seen in the δ18O record of the Bahamian stalagmites as Heinrich Stadials H0 to H6 and Dansgaard Oeschger Events. This collection of stalagmites represents different depths in a cave in Abaco, and their collective geochemical record reflects the global climatic effects as experienced locally in the subtropical islands of the Bahamas. Separately, various stalagmites that grew during the same time periods reflect similar patterns in the δ18O values of their calcite mineralogy despite having been located at vastly different depth elevations relative to each other. In general, the average δ18O value for the stalagmites collected from this cave is -2.5‰ VPDB with a maximum and minimum δ18O value between 0.5 ‰ and -5.5‰ VPDB respectively during Heinrich stadials and D/O events. In addition to δ18O values measured in these stalagmites, ratios of Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, and Ba/Ca are also compared with one another. This study attempts to elucidate differences, if any, that locations in a cave relative to sea level would have on recording the true climate signals of a region. Finally, results from this study are compared with stalagmites collected from Eleuthera, another Bahamian island with speleothems younger than those from Abaco in order to create a mostly continuous record of rapid climate change events dating back from present day to 63,000 years.

TRMM 3-Year Anniversary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Ever wonder about the rain? Beyond the practicality of needing an umbrella, climate researchers have wondered about the science of rainfall for a long time. But it's only in the past few years that they've begun to roll back some of its secrets. One of their tools for doing so is a powerful satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, or TRMM. Now, after three years of continual operation, project scientists have released dramatic new maps of rainfall patterns gathered across a wide band of the Earth. And with measurements from one of the satellite's advanced sensors, meteorologists are now able to calibrate ground-based rain monitoring systems with greater precision than ever before. A complete accounting of the world's total rainfall has long been a major goal of climate researchers. Rain acts as the atmosphere's fundamental engine for heat exchange; every time a raindrop falls, the atmosphere gets churned up and latent heat flows back into the total climate system. Considering that rainfall is the primary driving force of heat in the atmosphere, and that two thirds of all rain falls in the tropics, these measurements are significant for our understanding of overall climate. The above image shows a one month average of rainfall measurements taken by the TRMM's unique precipitation radar during January of 1998. Areas of low rainfall are colored light blue, while regions with heavy rainfal are colored orange and red. TRMM began collecting data in December of 1997, and continues today. For more information about TRMM's 3-year anniversary, read Maps of Falling Water To learn more about the TRMM mission or order TRMM data, see the TRMM Home Page. Image courtesy TRMM Science team and the NASA GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity.

PubMed

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G; Schmoldt, Daniel L; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A

2017-03-21

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

PubMed Central

Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making. PMID:28265075

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-03-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ˜70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation, Volume 43. MERRA-2; Initial Evaluation of the Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D. (Editor); Bosilovich, Michael G.; Akella, Santha; Lawrence, Coy; Cullather, Richard; Draper, Clara; Gelaro, Ronald; Kovach, Robin; Liu, Qing; Molod, Andrea;

Natural stand dynamics in longleaf pine: How climatic disturbances shape the community.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Outcalt, Kenneth, W.

2001-06-01

Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) once dominated the overstory of a wide range of southern plant communities from the Atlantic to Texas. Although periodic fires shaped the longleaf pine communities, climatic caused disturbances, significantly impacted them as well, changing stand structure and providing open sites for regeneration. Tornadoes, which usually operate at the partial stand scale are mimicked by even age management of longleaf pine. Seed-tree and shelterwood systems create conditions similar to less severe hurricanes that remove only some of the overstory. Lightening strikes, are continuously impacting longleaf stands creating small scale gaps of 2 to 4 trees where regenerationmore » is not uniform. Managers using the selection system should be aware of this, and create gaps in dry sandhills sites accordingly.« less

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles.

PubMed

Graham, C T; Harrod, C

2009-04-01

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate-change-related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community-level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold-adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm-adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool-adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm-adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold-adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food-web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.

Greenhouse to icehouse: Understanding the role of CO2 and non-CO2 forcings in warm climate intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldner, Aaron P.

The Earth system has evolved significantly over the past 65 million years. A relatively ice free world dominated the Eocene ˜45 million years ago (Ma), until the late Oligocene (˜34 Ma) when the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) developed in relatively short time period. Throughout the Oligocene and Miocene (23 to 5.3 Ma) temperatures gradually decreased as atmospheric CO2 continued to fall, vegetation biomes shifted, ocean circulation moved into its modern positions, and ocean gateways opened and closed. This transition from the warm and humid Eocene climate to the icehouse world we currently live has largely been attributed to a gradual decline in atmospheric CO 2. Acknowledging the fact that CO2 was the dominant driver in the gradual cooling over the last 65 million years, here we explore the less constrained feedbacks and forcings within the Earth system. These non-CO 2 forcings are important and could prove pivotal as we continue to constrain future climate prediction. Here we explore the climatic impact and forcing of the AIS, the oceanic response to AIS forcing, the temperature and precipitation patterns induced by changes in the El Nino southern Oscillation, and the impacts of El Nino and AIS forcing in the mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO). Specifically, we find that the distribution of sea surface temperature (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial pacific has a teleconnected fingerprint throughout the world and more El Nino like conditions is a possible explanation of the wetter conditions in the mid-latitudes during the Pliocene and Miocene. The effective forcing and temperature impact of the Antarctic Ice Sheet depends on the mean climate state as modern climate responds differently to removing the AIS than at the Eocene-Oligocene transition and during the MMCO. The differing temperature and climate sensitivity response is largely controlled by low cloud and sea-ice feedbacks during these time periods and the efficacy of AIS forcing in the Eocene is not necessarily close to one and is likely to be model and state dependent. We also find that adding the AIS into the unglaciated Eocene world cools the deep ocean comparable to previous modelling studies that opened southern ocean gateways. The modelled delta18O anomaly induced by glaciation is comparable to the change detected in the proxy records across the transition suggesting that the AIS can induce changes in ocean circulation and thermal structure, thus reversing the hypothesis that gateways caused a reorganization of ocean circulation and glaciation across the EOT. Finally, Simulating the MMCO at 400 ppm CO2 using a recently released state of the art modelling framework produces a model data mismatch in global MAT and at high latitudes. The discrepancy is comparable to that introduced by a full doubling of CO2. It is noteworthy that including two of the most discussed Earth system feedbacks (El Nino and reduced ice volume) had small impacts on improving the model predictions even when we included uncertainty from orbital forcing. In summary, the Earth system is complex and explaining the warmth in past greenhouse climates requires many changes to boundary conditions, the right climate modelling framework, and better understanding of the non-CO 2 climate forcings.

European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

2012-04-01

Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051-2100. Results indicate, with the exception of high latitude regions, a marked increase in drought condition across Europe especially in the second half of 21st century. Patterns, however, vary substantially depending on the model, emission scenario, region and season. While the variance introduced by choice of carbon cycle model is of minor importance, contribution of emission scenario becomes more important in the second half of the century; nevertheless, GCM uncertainty remains the dominant source throughout the 21st century and across all regions.

Space Technology and Earth System Science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Habib, Shahid

2011-01-01

Science must continue to drive the technology development. Partnering and Data Sharing among nations is very important to maximize the cost benefits of such investments Climate changes and adaptability will be a big challenge for the next several decades (1) Natural disasters frequency and locations (2) Economic and social impact can be global and (3) Water resources and management.

Climate Change and Climate Variability in the Latin American Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magrin, G. O.; Gay Garcia, C.; Cruz Choque, D.; Gimenez-Sal, J. C.; Moreno, A. R.; Nagy, G. J.; Nobre, C.; Villamizar, A.

2007-05-01

Over the past three decades LA was subjected to several climate-related impacts due to increased El Niño occurrences. Two extremely intense episodes of El Niño and other increased climate extremes happened during this period contributing greatly to augment the vulnerability of human systems to natural disasters. In addition to weather and climate, the main drivers of the increased vulnerability are demographic pressure, unregulated urban growth, poverty and rural migration, low investment in infrastructure and services, and problems in inter-sector coordination. As well, increases in temperature and increases/decreases in precipitation observed during the last part of 20th century have yet led to intensification of glaciers melting, increases in floods/droughts and forest fires frequency, increases in morbidity and mortality, increases in plant diseases incidence; lost of biodiversity, reduction in dairy cattle production, and problems with hydropower generation, highly affecting LA human system. For the end of the 21st century, the projected mean warming for LA ranges from 1 to 7.5ºC and the frequency of weather and climate extremes could increase. Additionally, deforestation is projected to continue leading to a reduction of 25 percent in Amazonia forest in 2020 and 40 percent in 2050. Soybeans planted area in South America could increase by 55 percent by 2020 enhancing aridity/desertification in many of the already water- stressed regions. By 2050 LA population is likely to be 50 percent larger than in 2000, and migration from the country sides to the cities will continue. In the near future, these predicted changes are very likely to severely affect a number of ecosystems and sectors distribution; b) Disappearing most tropical glaciers; c) Reducing water availability and hydropower generation; d) Increasing desertification and aridity; e) Severely affecting people, resources and economic activities in coastal areas; f) Increasing crop's pests and diseases; and g) Changing some human diseases distribution and provoking the emergence of new ones. The impact of climate change in Latin America's productive sectors is estimated to be of a 1.3 percent reduction of the region's GDP for a change of 2ºC in global temperature (without consider non market sectors and extremes events). Moreover, if the LA countries continue to follow the business as usual scenario, the wealth of natural resources that have supported economic and socio-cultural development in the region will be further degraded, reducing the regional potential for growth. Urgent measures must be taken to help bring environmental and social considerations from the margins to the decision-making and development strategies. This presentation is part of the revision done for the Latin American (LA) chapter under the IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report.

Fluctuations of a Temperate Mountain Glacier in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmann, M.; Bidlake, W.

2012-12-01

Glacier mass balance is a fundamental parameter for understanding and predicting the evolution of glaciers on the landscape in response to climate change. The USGS Ice and Climate Project (ICP) continues to extend the longest-running USGS benchmark glacier mass-balance record at South Cascade Glacier, Washington. Due to the importance of South Cascade Glacier data sets for glaciological and climate research, ICP is releasing decades-old previously unpublished glacier surface and bed maps, mass balance data at individual sites, ice velocity data, and an updated ice inventory for the surrounding basin. The complete record includes a pre-Industrial Revolution reconstruction of the glacier and seasonal mass balance measurements for the past 54 years (1958-2012). Since 2000, the glacier has experienced four of the five most negative summer balances and two of the largest positive accumulation years, indicating that the glacier is continuing to respond to recent warming and precipitation changes. Recently, ICP has developed a temperature-index glacier melt model that extrapolates daily accumulation and melt rates from intermittent field observations based on regional meteorological data, and an expert system for mass balance that captures the strengths of both measurement and modeling for assessing mass balance. The models have been successfully calibrated at South Cascade Glacier, where ample observations are available, but are designed to be used with as few or as many glaciological field data as are available for a given ice mass.

Climate Literacy and Cyberlearning: Emerging Platforms and Programs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCaffrey, M. S.; Wise, S. B.; Buhr, S. M.

2009-12-01

With the release of the Essential Principles of Climate Science Literacy: A Guide for Individuals and Communities in the Spring of 2009, an important step toward an shared educational and communication framework about climate science was achieved. Designed as a living document, reviewed and endorsed by the thirteen federal agencies in the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (now U.S. Global Change Research Program), the Essential Principles of Climate Literacy complement other Earth system literacy efforts. A variety of emerging efforts have begun to build on the framework using a variety of cyberlearning tools, including an online Climate Literacy course developed by Education and Outreach group at CIRES, the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, and the Independent Learning program of the Continuing Education Division at the University of Colorado at Boulder. The online course, piloted during the Summer of 2009 with formal classroom teachers and informal science educators, made use of the online Climate Literacy Handbook, which was developed by CIRES Education and Outreach and the Encyclopedia of Earth, which is supported by the National Council for Science and the Environment and hosted by Boston University. This paper will explore challenges and opportunities in the use of cyberlearning tools to support climate literacy efforts, highlight the development of the online course and handbook, and note related emerging cyberlearning platforms and programs for climate literacy, including related efforts by the Climate Literacy Network, the NASA Global Climate Change Education programs, the National STEM Education Distributed Learning (NSDL) and AAAS Project 2061.

[Evolution of the climate change concept and its impact in the public health of Peru].

PubMed

Sánchez Zavaleta, Carlos A

2016-03-01

The term "climate change" is not a new concept but its impact on public health is under constant review. We know that climate has already changed and will continue to change for centuries with the rise in average global temperature, and the associated rise in sea level. This fact makes mitigation efforts relevant only in the very long term and for generations of humans whose parents have not yet been born. When we talk about public health in the context of climate change, we are talking about adaptation. In the present, countries that are currently the most affected by climate change are precisely countries like Peru, without a significant carbon footprint at the global level but that are highly sensitive to the effects of climate. Without reliable climate projections, the health impact of climate change can be uncertain and complicated. Nevertheless, at the local level, every district can identify its vulnerabilities and define priorities to protect the health of its population. There are, and it can also be developed, environmental health indicators that can help monitor how well we are adapting and how prepared we are for changes in the climate. Adaptation to climate change implies improving living conditions, enhancing epidemiological surveillance systems and extending access to healthcare. The fight against the effects of climate change in public health is a fight against poverty and inequality, and that is nothing new in Peru.

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian; Vaughan, Naomi E.; Bauer, Nico; Ji, Duoying; Jones, Chris D.; Kravitz, Ben; Muri, Helene; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention - deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emission scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP): rationale and experimental protocol for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, David P.; Lenton, Andrew; Scott, Vivian

The recent IPCC reports state that continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, threatening severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts. Slow progress in emissions reduction to mitigate climate change is resulting in increased attention to what is called geoengineering, climate engineering, or climate intervention – deliberate interventions to counter climate change that seek to either modify the Earth's radiation budget or remove greenhouse gases such as CO 2 from the atmosphere. When focused on CO 2, the latter of these categories is called carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Future emission scenarios that stay well below 2 °C, and all emissionmore » scenarios that do not exceed 1.5 °C warming by the year 2100, require some form of CDR. At present, there is little consensus on the climate impacts and atmospheric CO 2 reduction efficacy of the different types of proposed CDR. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDRMIP) was initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDRMIP experiments, which are formally part of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). These experiments are designed to address questions concerning CDR-induced climate reversibility, the response of the Earth system to direct atmospheric CO 2 removal (direct air capture and storage), and the CDR potential and impacts of afforestation and reforestation, as well as ocean alkalinization.>« less

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

PubMed

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States

PubMed Central

Pryor, S. C.; Barthelmie, R. J.

2011-01-01

The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the “fuel” is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades. PMID:21536905

Assessing climate change impacts on the near-term stability of the wind energy resource over the United States.

PubMed

Pryor, S C; Barthelmie, R J

2011-05-17

The energy sector comprises approximately two-thirds of global total greenhouse gas emissions. For this and other reasons, renewable energy resources including wind power are being increasingly harnessed to provide electricity generation potential with negligible emissions of carbon dioxide. The wind energy resource is naturally a function of the climate system because the "fuel" is the incident wind speed and thus is determined by the atmospheric circulation. Some recent articles have reported historical declines in measured near-surface wind speeds, leading some to question the continued viability of the wind energy industry. Here we briefly articulate the challenges inherent in accurately quantifying and attributing historical tendencies and making robust projections of likely future wind resources. We then analyze simulations from the current generation of regional climate models and show, at least for the next 50 years, the wind resource in the regions of greatest wind energy penetration will not move beyond the historical envelope of variability. Thus this work suggests that the wind energy industry can, and will, continue to make a contribution to electricity provision in these regions for at least the next several decades.

The MedCLIVAR Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Medclivar Sc, The

2014-05-01

MedCLIVAR serves as a scientific network to promote interaction among different scientific disciplines and to develop a multidisciplinary vision of the evolution of the Mediterranean climate through studies that integrate atmospheric, marine, and terrestrial climate components at time scales ranging from paleoreconstructions to future climate scenarios. The network deals with scientific issues including past climate variability; connections between the Mediterranean and global climate; the Mediterranean Sea circulation and sea level; feedbacks on the global climate system; and regional responses to greenhouse gas, air pollution, and aerosols. The MedCLIVAR initiative was proposed at the 2003 European Geosciences Union assembly in Nice, France. In 2005, it was endorsed by the International Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) office. Subsequently, the MedCLIVAR Research Network Project was formally approved by the European Science Foundation and launched in May 2006 for a five year duration. Now MedCLIVAR is continuing with self supporting initiatives, such as the third MedCLIVAR conference, which will be held in June 2014 in Ankara (Turkey) , the publication of a special issue of Regional Environmental Change devoted to the climate of the Mediterranean region, and a newsletter, which is published every six months. More information available in Lionello, P., Gacic, M., Gomis, D., Garcia-Herrera, R., Giorgi, F., Planton, S., Trigo, R., (...), Xoplaki, E. (2012) Program focuses on climate of the Mediterranean region, Eos Trans. AGU 93:105-106

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Impacts of East Asian Sulfate Aerosols on Local and Remote Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic aerosols exert significant climate forcing, which increases with emissions following trends of growing population and industry. Globally, aerosols cause a net cooling, counteracting greenhouse gas warming; however, regional impacts vary since emissions are spatially and temporally heterogeneous. While European and North American emissions have decreased in recent decades, Asian, particularly East Asian, emissions continued to rise into the 21st century. In addition to links between Asian anthropogenic aerosols and significant local climate impacts - for example, changes to the Asian monsoon system - studies have also shown influences on remote climate. Sulfate aerosols are particularly important for East Asia, remaining at constant levels higher than column burdens of other aerosol species. If a concerted effort - as laid out by government policies aiming to improve air quality - is made, the effects of anthropogenic aerosols (due to their short atmospheric lifetime) could be quickly reversed. Thus, it is vital to understand the climate impact aerosols have had up to now to aid in determining what will happen in the future. We use transient climate modelling experiments with the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of East Asian sulfate aerosols in the present day compared to 1950 (i.e. before rapid industrialisation in this region), focusing on dynamical mechanisms leading to the occurrence of such impacts, and how their influence can spread to remote regions. We find, in addition to significant monsoon impacts, noticeable shifts in large-scale circulation features such as the ITCZ and the Pacific Walker cell. Through diabatic heating responses, changes to upper-level atmospheric dynamics are evident, leading to downstream effects on surface climate - for example, surface cooling over Europe. Understanding of these impacts is vital when considering how the good intentions of air quality improvement might inadvertently have significant impacts on future climate on regional scales.

NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Presentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, William P.

2012-01-01

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) offers integrated supercomputing, visualization, and data interaction technologies to enhance NASA's weather and climate prediction capabilities. It serves hundreds of users at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as other NASA centers, laboratories, and universities across the US. Over the past year, NCCS has continued expanding its data-centric computing environment to meet the increasingly data-intensive challenges of climate science. We doubled our Discover supercomputer's peak performance to more than 800 teraflops by adding 7,680 Intel Xeon Sandy Bridge processor-cores and most recently 240 Intel Xeon Phi Many Integrated Core (MIG) co-processors. A supercomputing-class analysis system named Dali gives users rapid access to their data on Discover and high-performance software including the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT), with interfaces from user desktops and a 17- by 6-foot visualization wall. NCCS also is exploring highly efficient climate data services and management with a new MapReduce/Hadoop cluster while augmenting its data distribution to the science community. Using NCCS resources, NASA completed its modeling contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCG) Fifth Assessment Report this summer as part of the ongoing Coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Ensembles of simulations run on Discover reached back to the year 1000 to test model accuracy and projected climate change through the year 2300 based on four different scenarios of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use. The data resulting from several thousand IPCC/CMIP5 simulations, as well as a variety of other simulation, reanalysis, and observationdatasets, are available to scientists and decision makers through an enhanced NCCS Earth System Grid Federation Gateway. Worldwide downloads have totaled over 110 terabytes of data.

Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.

The Role of Orbital Forcing in the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition: Continuing the Precession Verses Obliquity Debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maslin, M. A.; Brierley, C. M.

2015-12-01

The Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition (EMPT) is the term used to describe the prolongation and intensification of glacial-interglacial climate cycles that initiated after 900,000 years ago. During the transition glacial-interglacial cycles shift from lasting 41,000 years to an average of 100,000 years. The structure of these glacial-interglacial cycles shifts from smooth to more abrupt 'saw-toothed' like transitions. In fact we argue there is shift from a bimodal climate to a tripartite climate system (see Figure). Despite eccentricity having by far the weakest influence on insolation received at the Earth's surface of any of the orbital parameters; it is often assumed to be the primary driver of the post-EMPT 100,000 years climate cycles because of the similarity in duration. The traditional solution to this is to call for a highly nonlinear response by the global climate system to eccentricity. This 'eccentricity myth' is due to an artefact of spectral analysis which means that the last 8 glacial-interglacial average out at about 100,000 years in length despite ranging from 80,000 to 120,000 years. With the realisation that eccentricity is not the major driving force a debate has emerged as to whether precession or obliquity controlled the timing of the most recent glacial-interglacial cycles. Some argue that post-EMPT deglaciations occurred every four or five precessional cycle while others argue it is every second or third obliquity cycle. We review these current theories and suggest that though phase-locking between orbital forcing and global ice volume may occur and seem to primarily driven by the timing of precession; the chaotic nature of the climate system response means the relationship is not consistent through the last 900,000 years.

Global synthesis of the documented and projected effects of climate change on inland fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, Bonnie; Lynch, Abigail; Bunnell, David; Chu, Cindy; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Paukert, Craig P.

2017-01-01

Although climate change is an important factor affecting inland fishes globally, a comprehensive review of how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact inland fishes worldwide does not currently exist. We conducted an extensive, systematic primary literature review to identify English-language, peer-reviewed journal publications with projected and documented examples of climate change impacts on inland fishes globally. Since the mid-1980s, scientists have projected the effects of climate change on inland fishes, and more recently, documentation of climate change impacts on inland fishes has increased. Of the thousands of title and abstracts reviewed, we selected 624 publications for a full text review: 63 of these publications documented an effect of climate change on inland fishes, while 116 publications projected inland fishes’ response to future climate change. Documented and projected impacts of climate change varied, but several trends emerged including differences between documented and projected impacts of climate change on salmonid abundance (P = 0.0002). Salmonid abundance decreased in 89.5% of documented effects compared to 35.7% of projected effects, where variable effects were more commonly reported (64.3%). Studies focused on responses of salmonids (61% of total) to climate change in North America and Europe, highlighting major gaps in the literature for taxonomic groups and geographic focus. Elucidating global patterns and identifying knowledge gaps of climate change effects on inland fishes will help managers better anticipate local changes in fish populations and assemblages, resulting in better development of management plans, particularly in systems with little information on climate change effects on fish.

High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCullough, Ian M.; Davis, Frank W.; Dingman, John R.; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Serra-Diaz, Josep M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Moritz, Max A.; Hannah, Lee; Franklin, Janet

2016-01-01

In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

An approach to secure weather and climate models against hardware faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düben, Peter D.; Dawson, Andrew

2017-03-01

Enabling Earth System models to run efficiently on future supercomputers is a serious challenge for model development. Many publications study efficient parallelization to allow better scaling of performance on an increasing number of computing cores. However, one of the most alarming threats for weather and climate predictions on future high performance computing architectures is widely ignored: the presence of hardware faults that will frequently hit large applications as we approach exascale supercomputing. Changes in the structure of weather and climate models that would allow them to be resilient against hardware faults are hardly discussed in the model development community. In this paper, we present an approach to secure the dynamical core of weather and climate models against hardware faults using a backup system that stores coarse resolution copies of prognostic variables. Frequent checks of the model fields on the backup grid allow the detection of severe hardware faults, and prognostic variables that are changed by hardware faults on the model grid can be restored from the backup grid to continue model simulations with no significant delay. To justify the approach, we perform model simulations with a C-grid shallow water model in the presence of frequent hardware faults. As long as the backup system is used, simulations do not crash and a high level of model quality can be maintained. The overhead due to the backup system is reasonable and additional storage requirements are small. Runtime is increased by only 13 % for the shallow water model.

An approach to secure weather and climate models against hardware faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Düben, Peter; Dawson, Andrew

2017-04-01

Enabling Earth System models to run efficiently on future supercomputers is a serious challenge for model development. Many publications study efficient parallelisation to allow better scaling of performance on an increasing number of computing cores. However, one of the most alarming threats for weather and climate predictions on future high performance computing architectures is widely ignored: the presence of hardware faults that will frequently hit large applications as we approach exascale supercomputing. Changes in the structure of weather and climate models that would allow them to be resilient against hardware faults are hardly discussed in the model development community. We present an approach to secure the dynamical core of weather and climate models against hardware faults using a backup system that stores coarse resolution copies of prognostic variables. Frequent checks of the model fields on the backup grid allow the detection of severe hardware faults, and prognostic variables that are changed by hardware faults on the model grid can be restored from the backup grid to continue model simulations with no significant delay. To justify the approach, we perform simulations with a C-grid shallow water model in the presence of frequent hardware faults. As long as the backup system is used, simulations do not crash and a high level of model quality can be maintained. The overhead due to the backup system is reasonable and additional storage requirements are small. Runtime is increased by only 13% for the shallow water model.

Climate Discovery Online Courses for Educators from NCAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S.; Ward, D. L.; Meymaris, K. K.; Johnson, R. M.; Gardiner, L.; Russell, R.

2008-12-01

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has responded to the pressing need for professional development in climate and global change sciences by creating the Climate Discovery online course series. This series was designed with the secondary geoscience educator in mind. The online courses are based on current and credible climate change science. Interactive learning techniques are built into the online course designs with assignments that encourage active participation. A key element of the online courses is the creation of a virtual community of geoscience educators who exchange ideas related to classroom implementation, student assessment, and lessons plans. Geoscience educators from around the country have participated in the online courses. The ongoing interest from geoscience educators strongly suggests that the NCAR Climate Discovery online courses are a timely and needed professional development opportunity. The intent of NCAR Climate Discovery is to positively impact teachers' professional development scientifically authentic information, (2) experiencing guided practice in conducting activities and using ancillary resources in workshop venues, (3) gaining access to standards-aligned lesson plans, kits that promote hands-on learning, and scientific content that are easily implemented in their classrooms, and (4) becoming a part of a community of educators with whom they may continue to discuss the challenges of pedagogy and content comprehension in teaching climate change in the Earth system context. Three courses make up the Climate Discovery series: Introduction to Climate Change; Earth System Science - A Climate Change Perspective; and Understanding Climate Change Today. Each course, instructed by science education specialists, combines geoscience content, information about current climate research, hands-on activities, and group discussion. The online courses use the web-based Moodle courseware system (open- source software similar to Blackboard and webCT), utilizing its features to promote dialogue as well as provide rich online content and media. A key element of the online courses is the development and support of an online learning community, an essential component in successful online courses. Interactive learning techniques are built into the course designs with assignments that encourage active participation. Educators (both formal and informal) use the courses as a venue to exchange ideas and teaching resources. A unique feature of the courses is the emphasis on hands-on activities, a hallmark of our professional development efforts. This presentation will focus on the lessons learned in the development of the three online courses and our successful recruitment and retention efforts.

Relationships between Climate, Process, and Performance in Continuous Quality Improvement Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkens, Roxanne; London, Manuel

2006-01-01

This study examined relationships between group climate (participants' learning orientation, feelings of psychological safety, and self-disclosure), process (feedback and conflict), and performance in continuous quality improvement groups. Forty-nine participants in eight hospital groups were surveyed as the groups neared completion. Groups were…

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Model-Relevant Observations and the Beneficiary Modeling Efforts in the Realm of the EVS-2 Project ORACLES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Redemann, Jens

2018-01-01

Globally, aerosols remain a major contributor to uncertainties in assessments of anthropogenically-induced changes to the Earth climate system, despite concerted efforts using satellite and suborbital observations and increasingly sophisticated models. The quantification of direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects, as well as cloud adjustments thereto, even at regional scales, continues to elude our capabilities. Some of our limitations are due to insufficient sampling and accuracy of the relevant observables, under an appropriate range of conditions to provide useful constraints for modeling efforts at various climate scales. In this talk, I will describe (1) the efforts of our group at NASA Ames to develop new airborne instrumentation to address some of the data insufficiencies mentioned above; (2) the efforts by the EVS-2 ORACLES project to address aerosol-cloud-climate interactions in the SE Atlantic and (3) time permitting, recent results from a synergistic use of A-Train aerosol data to test climate model simulations of present-day direct radiative effects in some of the AEROCOM phase II global climate models.

Nocturnal pituitary hormone and renin profiles during chronic heat exposure.

PubMed

Saini, J; Brandenberger, G; Libert, J P; Follenius, M

1993-07-01

To establish the principal endocrine systems involved in the initial adaptation to chronic passive heat exposure, responses of the hydromineral and pituitary systems were compared. Nocturnal plasma profiles of growth hormone, prolactin, thyrotropin, and plasma renin activity were determined during a period of prolonged heat exposure designed to simulate a hot climate. Two groups of six male subjects (G1 and G2) were kept for 11 days in a climatically controlled apartment. The G1 group was exposed to 20 degrees C throughout the study, and the G2 group was exposed to 20 degrees C for 5 days and to 35 degrees C for the following 6 days. Blood was collected continuously during the 1st and 10th nights from 2300 to 0700 h and was sampled in 10-min aliquots for hormone analysis. Heat exposure increased the nocturnal mean core temperature (P < 0.02) and stimulated plasma renin activity (P < 0.01) but had little effect on the pituitary hormones except for a small increase in prolactin (P < 0.05). For the G1 group there was no change in hormone profiles. These results demonstrate that the principal initial endocrine system involved in acclimatization to passive heat exposure is the renin-angiotensin system, reflecting counteractive measures against salt and water losses. In contrast, 5 days of continuous heat exposure does not provoke metabolic changes, indicated by the small effect on pituitary hormone profiles.

"Time-dependent flow-networks"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupikina, Liubov; Molkentin, Nora; Lopez, Cristobal; Hernandez-Garcia, Emilio; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-04-01

Complex networks have been successfully applied to various systems such as society, technology, and recently climate. Links in a climate network are defined between two geographical locations if the correlation between the time series of some climate variable is higher than a threshold. Therefore, network links are considered to imply information or heat exchange. However, the relationship between the oceanic and atmospheric flows and the climate network's structure is still unclear. Recently, a theoretical approach verifying the correlation between ocean currents and surface air temperature networks has been introduced, where the Pearson correlation networks were constructed from advection-diffusion dynamics on an underlying flow. Since the continuous approach has its limitations, i.e. high computational complexity and fixed variety of the flows in the underlying system, we introduce a new, method of flow-networks for changing in time velocity fields including external forcing in the system, noise and temperature-decay. Method of the flow-network construction can be divided into several steps: first we obtain the linear recursive equation for the temperature time-series. Then we compute the correlation matrix for time-series averaging the tensor product over all realizations of the noise, which we interpret as a weighted adjacency matrix of the flow-network and analyze using network measures. We apply the method to different types of moving flows with geographical relevance such as meandering flow. Analyzing the flow-networks using network measures we find that our approach can highlight zones of high velocity by degree and transition zones by betweenness, while the combination of these network measures can uncover how the flow propagates within time. Flow-networks can be powerful tool to understand the connection between system's dynamics and network's topology analyzed using network measures in order to shed light on different climatic phenomena.

The Role of Artificial Atmospheric CO2 Removal in Stabilizing Earth's Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2014-05-01

Recent research showed that global mean temperature remains approximately constant for several centuries after complete cessation of CO2 emissions, while global mean thermosteric sea level continues to rise. This implies that a net artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere may be necessary to decrease the atmospheric CO2 concentrations more rapidly and bring the climate system components to their previous states on human timescales. The purpose of this study is to explore the reversibility of climate responses to a range of realistic CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from fossil-fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system with implementation of negative CO2 emissions, using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity (UVic ESCM 2.9). The CO2 emission pathways were designed to meet constraints related to the implementation of negative emission technologies derived from the integrated assessment literature. Our simulations show that while it is possible, in principle, to revert the global mean temperature after a phase of overshoot, the thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible on human timescales for the range of emission scenarios considered. During the negative emission phase, CO2 is released form the natural (terrestrial and marine) carbon sinks, which diminishes the efficiency of negative emissions implemented. In addition, spatial changes of vegetation distribution patterns are not entirely reversible on human timescales. We suggest that while negative emissions could potentially stabilize the global mean temperature at a desired level, such technology does not supersede reductions in fossil fuel emissions, as the artificial CO2 capture at large scale has many limitations and is unable to stabilize other climate system components (e.g. sea level) at desired levels.

Climate models with delay differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M.

2017-11-01

A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

Climate models with delay differential equations.

PubMed

Keane, Andrew; Krauskopf, Bernd; Postlethwaite, Claire M

2017-11-01

A fundamental challenge in mathematical modelling is to find a model that embodies the essential underlying physics of a system, while at the same time being simple enough to allow for mathematical analysis. Delay differential equations (DDEs) can often assist in this goal because, in some cases, only the delayed effects of complex processes need to be described and not the processes themselves. This is true for some climate systems, whose dynamics are driven in part by delayed feedback loops associated with transport times of mass or energy from one location of the globe to another. The infinite-dimensional nature of DDEs allows them to be sufficiently complex to reproduce realistic dynamics accurately with a small number of variables and parameters. In this paper, we review how DDEs have been used to model climate systems at a conceptual level. Most studies of DDE climate models have focused on gaining insights into either the global energy balance or the fundamental workings of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. For example, studies of DDEs have led to proposed mechanisms for the interannual oscillations in sea-surface temperature that is characteristic of ENSO, the irregular behaviour that makes ENSO difficult to forecast and the tendency of El Niño events to occur near Christmas. We also discuss the tools used to analyse such DDE models. In particular, the recent development of continuation software for DDEs makes it possible to explore large regions of parameter space in an efficient manner in order to provide a "global picture" of the possible dynamics. We also point out some directions for future research, including the incorporation of non-constant delays, which we believe could improve the descriptive power of DDE climate models.

VIIRS Product Evaluation at the Ocean PEATE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patt, Frederick S.; Feldman, Gene C.

2010-01-01

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP) mission will support the continuation of climate records generated from NASA missions. The NASA Science Data Segment (SDS) relies upon discipline-specific centers of expertise to evaluate the NPP data products for suitability as climate data records, The Ocean Product Evaluation and Analysis Tool Element (PEATE) will build upon Well established NASA capabilities within the Ocean Color program in order to evaluate the NPP Visible and Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Ocean Color and Chlorophyll data products. The specific evaluation methods will support not only the evaluation of product quality but also the sources of differences with existing data records.

Salmon and Sagebrush: The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes Collaborative Approach to Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, A.; Nasser, E.; Stone, D.; Krosby, M.; Whitley-Binder, L.; Morgan, H.; Rupp, D. E.; Dello, K.; Dalton, M. M.; Fox, M.; Rodgers, K.

2017-12-01

The Shoshone-Bannock Tribes reside in the Upper Snake River Watershed in southeast Idaho. Their lives and culture are intertwined with the lands where they live; lands which continue to sustain the Tribes cultural, spiritual, dietary and economic needs. Climate change presents a new threat to the region requiring innovative approaches to prepare for changes as well as to protect the natural resources within the region. As a critical first step in building climate resilience, the Tribes worked with Adaptation International, the University of Washington's Climate Impacts Group (CIG) and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) to complete a collaborative climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning process. This presentation provides an overview of collaborative process, shares the results of the project, and includes a 3-minute video presentation. The project started with the identification of 34 plant and animal species to focus the vulnerability assessment. OCCRI analyzed detailed downscaled climate projections for two key climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and timescales (2050s and 2080s). CIG then used NatureServe's Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to develop initial relative vulnerability results for these species. A core team of Tribal staff members from various departments refined these results, drawing upon and integrating rich local and traditional knowledges of the natural environmental and cultural resources. The adaptation planning phase of the project continued in a similar collaborative manner with the project team identifying promising adaptation actions and working directly with Tribal staff to refine and customize these strategies. Tailoring the actions to the local context provides a framework for action that the Tribes can continue to build on in the future. By engaging in these efforts to identify vulnerable species and adaptation strategies and actions to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the Tribes have demonstrated their continued commitment to protecting their vital natural resources. The Tribes will continue to implement projects across landscapes in the near term and utilize the information co-produced as part of this project to develop long-term strategies and projects to build resilience.

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

2011-12-01

GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

NOAA's Scientific Data Stewardship Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bates, J. J.

2004-12-01

The NOAA mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation's economic, social and environmental needs. NOAA has responsibility for long-term archiving of the United States environmental data and has recently integrated several data management functions into a concept called Scientific Data Stewardship. Scientific Data Stewardship a new paradigm in data management consisting of an integrated suite of functions to preserve and exploit the full scientific value of NOAA's, and the world's, environmental data These functions include careful monitoring of observing system performance for long-term applications, the generation of authoritative long-term climate records from multiple observing platforms, and the proper archival of and timely access to data and metadata. NOAA has developed a conceptual framework to implement the functions of scientific data stewardship. This framework has five objectives: 1) develop real-time monitoring of all satellite observing systems for climate applications, 2) process large volumes of satellite data extending up to decades in length to account for systematic errors and to eliminate artifacts in the raw data (referred to as fundamental climate data records, FCDRs), 3) generate retrieved geophysical parameters from the FCDRs (referred to as thematic climate data records TCDRs) including combining observations from all sources, 4) conduct monitoring and research by analyzing data sets to uncover climate trends and to provide evaluation and feedback for steps 2) and 3), and 5) provide archives of metadata, FCDRs, and TCDRs, and facilitate distribution of these data to the user community. The term `climate data record' and related terms, such as climate data set, have been used for some time, but the climate community has yet to settle on a concensus definition. A recent United States National Academy of Sciences report recommends using the following definition: a climate data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change.

2015 ESGF Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, D. N.

2015-06-22

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration whose purpose is to develop the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. ESGF’s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes that are independently administered yet united by common federation protocols and application programming interfaces. The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging, which is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards. ESGF integrates popular application engines available from the open-sourcemore » community with custom components (for data publishing, searching, user interface, security, and messaging) that were developed collaboratively by the team. The full ESGF infrastructure has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)—output used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment reports. ESGF is a successful example of integration of disparate open-source technologies into a cohesive functional system that serves the needs of the global climate science community.« less

Climate-society feedbacks and the avoidance of dangerous climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, A. J.; Leedal, D. T.; Hewitt, C. N.

2012-09-01

The growth in anthropogenic CO2 emissions experienced since the onset of the Industrial Revolution is the most important disturbance operating on the Earth's climate system. To avoid dangerous climate change, future greenhouse-gas emissions will have to deviate from business-as-usual trajectories. This implies that feedback links need to exist between climate change and societal actions. Here, we show that, consciously or otherwise, these feedbacks can be represented by linking global mean temperature change to the growth dynamics of CO2 emissions. We show that the global growth of new renewable sources of energy post-1990 represents a climate-society feedback of ~0.25%yr-1 per degree increase in global mean temperature. We also show that to fulfil the outcomes negotiated in Durban in 2011, society will have to become ~ 50 times more responsive to global mean temperature change than it has been since 1990. If global energy use continues to grow as it has done historically then this would result in amplification of the long-term endogenous rate of decarbonization from -0.6%yr-1 to ~-13%yr-1. It is apparent that modest levels of feedback sensitivity pay large dividends in avoiding climate change but that the marginal return on this effort diminishes rapidly as the required feedback strength increases.

Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade.

PubMed

Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Moore, John; Yan, Qing; Song, Yi; Yang, Zhiyong; Yuan, Wenping; Chou, Jieming; Cui, Xuefeng; Yan, Xiaodong; Wei, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Yang, Shili; Tian, Di; Lin, Pengfei; Yang, Song; Wen, Zhiping; Lin, Hui; Chen, Min; Feng, Guolin; Jiang, Yundi; Zhu, Xian; Chen, Juan; Wei, Xin; Shi, Wen; Zhang, Zhiguo; Dong, Juan; Li, Yexin; Chen, Deliang

2016-06-22

Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.

Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Fowler, H. J.; Blenkinsop, S.; Burton, A.; Kilsby, C. G.; Archer, D. R.; Harpham, C.; Hashmi, M. Z.

2014-09-01

Assessing local climate change impacts requires downscaling from Global Climate Model simulations. Here, a stochastic rainfall model (RainSim) combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator (CRU WG) have been successfully applied in a semi-arid mountain climate, for part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), for point stations at a daily time-step to explore climate change impacts. Validation of the simulated time-series against observations (1961-1990) demonstrated the models' skill in reproducing climatological means of core variables with monthly RMSE of <2.0 mm for precipitation and ⩽0.4 °C for mean temperature and daily temperature range. This level of performance is impressive given complexity of climate processes operating in this mountainous context at the boundary between monsoonal and mid-latitude (westerly) weather systems. Of equal importance the model captures well the observed interannual variability as quantified by the first and last decile of 30-year climatic periods. Differences between a control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) regional climate model (RCM) time-slice experiment were then used to provide change factors which could be applied within the rainfall and weather models to produce perturbed ‘future' weather time-series. These project year-round increases in precipitation (maximum seasonal mean change:+27%, annual mean change: +18%) with increased intensity in the wettest months (February, March, April) and year-round increases in mean temperature (annual mean +4.8 °C). Climatic constraints on the productivity of natural resource-dependent systems were also assessed using relevant indices from the European Climate Assessment (ECA) and indicate potential future risk to water resources and local agriculture. However, the uniformity of projected temperature increases is in stark contrast to recent seasonally asymmetrical trends in observations, so an alternative scenario of extrapolated trends was also explored. We conclude that interannual variability in climate will continue to have the dominant impact on water resources management whichever trajectory is followed. This demonstrates the need for sophisticated downscaling methods which can evaluate changes in variability and sequencing of events to explore climate change impacts in this region.

The AmeriFlux Data Activity and Data System: An Evolving Collection of Data Management Techniques, Tools, Products and Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, Thomas A; Krassovski, Misha B; Yang, Bai

2013-01-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the U.S. Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Over this period, climate change science has expanded from research focusing on basic understanding of geochemical cycles, particularly the carbon cycle, to integrated research addressing climate change impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Interests in climate change data and information worldwide have grown remarkably and, as a result, so have demands and expectations for CDIAC s data systems. To meet the growing demands, CDIAC s strategy has beenmore » to design flexible data systems using proven technologies blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. CDIAC development teams are multidisciplinary and include computer science and information technology expertise, but also scientific expertise necessary to address data quality and documentation issues and to identify data products and system capabilities needed by climate change scientists. CDIAC has learned there is rarely a single commercial tool or product readily available to satisfy long-term scientific data system requirements (i.e., one size does not fit all and the breadth and diversity of environmental data are often too complex for easy use with commercial products) and typically deploys a variety of tools and data products in an effort to provide credible data freely to users worldwide. Like many scientific data management applications, CDIAC s data systems are highly customized to satisfy specific scientific usage requirements (e.g., developing data products specific for model use) but are also designed to be flexible and interoperable to take advantage of new software engineering techniques, standards (e.g., metadata standards) and tools and to support future Earth system data efforts (e.g., ocean acidification). CDIAC has provided data management support for numerous long-term measurement projects crucial to climate change science. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We share our approaches in satisfying the challenges of delivering AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges handling climate change data, further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.« less

Climate-driven shifts in quantity and seasonality of river discharge over the past 1000 years from the hydrographic apex of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, Brent B.; Hall, Roland I.; Edwards, Thomas W. D.; Jarvis, Suzanne R.; Sinnatamby, R. Niloshini; Yi, Yi; Johnston, John W.

2008-12-01

Runoff generated from high elevations is the primary source of freshwater for western North America, yet this critical resource is managed on the basis of short instrumental records that capture an insufficient range of climatic conditions. Here we probe the effects of climate change over the past ~1000 years on river discharge in the upper Mackenzie River system based on paleoenvironmental information from the Peace-Athabasca Delta. The delta landscape responds to hydroclimatic changes with marked variability, while Lake Athabasca level appears to directly monitor overall water availability. The latter fluctuated systematically over the past millennium, with the highest levels occurring in concert with maximum glacier extent during the Little Ice Age, and the lowest during the 11th century, prior to medieval glacier expansion. Recent climate-driven hydrological change appears to be on a trajectory to even lower levels as high-elevation snow and glacier meltwater contributions both continue to decline.

More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

Urbanization, Extreme Events, and Health: The Case for Systems Approaches in Mitigation, Management, and Response.

PubMed

Siri, José Gabriel; Newell, Barry; Proust, Katrina; Capon, Anthony

2016-03-01

Extreme events, both natural and anthropogenic, increasingly affect cities in terms of economic losses and impacts on health and well-being. Most people now live in cities, and Asian cities, in particular, are experiencing growth on unprecedented scales. Meanwhile, the economic and health consequences of climate-related events are worsening, a trend projected to continue. Urbanization, climate change and other geophysical and social forces interact with urban systems in ways that give rise to complex and in many cases synergistic relationships. Such effects may be mediated by location, scale, density, or connectivity, and also involve feedbacks and cascading outcomes. In this context, traditional, siloed, reductionist approaches to understanding and dealing with extreme events are unlikely to be adequate. Systems approaches to mitigation, management and response for extreme events offer a more effective way forward. Well-managed urban systems can decrease risk and increase resilience in the face of such events. © 2015 APJPH.

The role of the World Data Centers in handling ocean climate data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webster, Ferris

1992-01-01

The World Data Center System, set up for the International Geophysical Year in 1957, is an international network of data centers that links data contributors to data users in the geosciences. It includes means for the synthesis, analysis, and preparation of data products. It was set up in response to the needs of the international scientific community, and is still overseen by non-governmental scientific organizations. Because it is freely available to researchers in all countries, the World Data Center System has a special role to play in support of ocean climate research and monitoring programs. The World Data Centers face a number of challenges today. Apathy is probably the greatest, since many scientists take the system for granted. There is need to improve access and exploit new technology. The system must establish new links to assure continuity in a world with political changes. The multidisciplinary needs of global change research will demand capabilities for data and information management that go beyond the traditional emphasis on geophysics.

The Global Distribution of Precipitation and Clouds. Chapter 2.4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Rossow, William; Ritter, Michael; Curtis, Scott

2004-01-01

The water cycle is the key circuit moving water through the Earth's system. This large system, powered by energy from the sun, is a continuous exchange of moisture between the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land. Precipitation (including rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail), is the primary mechanism for transporting water from the atmosphere back to the Earth's surface and is the key physical process that links aspects of climate, weather, and the global water cycle. Global precipitation and associate cloud processes are critical for understanding the water cycle balance on a global scale and interactions with the Earth's climate system. However, unlike measurement of less dynamic and more homogenous meteorological fields such as pressure or even temperature, accurate assessment of global precipitation is particularly challenging due to its highly stochastic and rapidly changing nature. It is not uncommon to observe a broad spectrum of precipitation rates and distributions over very localized time scales. Furthermore, precipitating systems generally exhibit nonhomogeneous spatial distributions of rain rates over local to global domains.

Immediate propagation of deglacial environmental change to turbidite systems along the Chilean continental slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hebbeln, Dierk; Stuut, Jan-Berend; Strecker, Manfred

2017-04-01

Understanding how Earth-surface processes respond to past climatic perturbations is crucial for making informed predictions about future impacts of climate change on sediment fluxes. Sedimentary records provide the archives for inferring these processes but their interpretation is compromised by our incomplete understanding of how sediment-routing systems respond to millennial-scale climate cycles. We analyzed seven sediment cores recovered from turbidite depositional sites along the continental slope of the Chile convergent margin. These depositional systems represent the ultimate sedimentary archives before sediment gets recycled during subduction processes and provide relatively continuous and well-dated records. The study sites span a pronounced arid-to-humid gradient with variable topographic gradients and related connectivity of terrestrial and marine landscapes on the continental slope. This setting allowed us to study event-related depositional processes from the Last Glacial Maximum to present in different climatic and geomorphic settings. The turbidite record was quantified in terms of turbidite thickness and frequency. The three studied sites show a steep decline of turbidite deposition during deglaciation. High rates of sea-level rise significantly lag the decline in turbidite deposition by 3-6.5 kyrs. However, comparison to paleoclimate proxies shows that this spatio-temporal sedimentary pattern mirrors the deglacial humidity decrease and concomitant warming with little to no lag times. Our results suggest that the deglacial humidity decrease resulted in a decrease of fluvial sediment supply, which propagated rapidly through the highly connected systems into the marine sink in north-central Chile. In contrast, in south-central Chilean systems, connectivity between the Andean erosional zone and the fluvial transfer zone probably decreased abruptly by the deglaciation of piedmont lakes, resulting in a significant and rapid decrease of sediment supply to the ocean. Additionally, reduced moisture supply may have also contributed to the rapid decline of turbidite deposition. These different causes result in similar depositional patterns in the marine sinks. We conclude that turbiditic strata can act as reliable recorders of climate change across a wide range of climatic zones and geomorphic conditions. However, the underlying causes for similar signal manifestations in the sinks may differ, ranging from maintained high system connectivity to abrupt connectivity loss.

Predictability Analysis of PM10 Concentrations in Budapest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferenczi, Zita

2013-04-01

Climate, weather and air quality may have harmful effects on human health and environment. Over the past few hundred years we had to face the changes in climate in parallel with the changes in air quality. These observed changes in climate, weather and air quality continuously interact with each other: pollutants are changing the climate, thus changing the weather, but climate also has impacts on air quality. The increasing number of extreme weather situations may be a result of climate change, which could create favourable conditions for rising of pollutant concentrations. Air quality in Budapest is determined by domestic and traffic emissions combined with the meteorological conditions. In some cases, the effect of long-range transport could also be essential. While the time variability of the industrial and traffic emissions is not significant, the domestic emissions increase in winter season. In recent years, PM10 episodes have caused the most critical air quality problems in Budapest, especially in winter. In Budapest, an air quality network of 11 stations detects the concentration values of different pollutants hourly. The Hungarian Meteorological Service has developed an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The system forecasts the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3) for two days in advance. In this work we used meteorological parameters and PM10 data detected by the stations of the air quality network, as well as the forecasted PM10 values of the air quality prediction model system. In this work we present the evaluation of PM10 predictions in the last two years and the most important meteorological parameters affecting PM10 concentration. The results of this analysis determine the effect of the meteorological parameters and the emission of aerosol particles on the PM10 concentration values as well as the limits of this prediction system.

Quantifying Chemical Ozone Loss in the Arctic Stratosphere with GEOS-STRATCHEM Data Assimilation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wargan, K.; Nielsen, J. E.

2017-01-01

A faithful representation of polar stratospheric chemistry in models and its connection with dynamical variability is essential for our understanding of the evolution of the ozone layer in a changing climate and during the projected continuing decline of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere. We use a new configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System with a stratospheric chemistry model to study ozone depletion in the Arctic polar stratosphere during the exceptionally cold (in the stratosphere) winters 2015/2016 and 2010/2011.

The current evolution of complex high mountain debris-covered glacier systems and its relation with ground ice nature and distribution: the case of Rognes and Pierre Ronde area (Mont-Blanc range, France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosson, Jean-Baptiste; Lambiel, Christophe

2014-05-01

The current climate forcing, through negative glacier mass balance and rockfall intensification, is leading to the rapid burring of many small glacier systems. When the debris mantle exceeds some centimeters of thickness, the climate control on ice melt is mitigated and delayed. As well, debris-covered glaciers respond to climate forcing in a complex way. This situation is emphasised in high mountain environments, where topo-climatic conditions, such as cold temperatures, amount of solid precipitation, duration of snow cover, nebulosity or shadow effect of rockwalls, limit the influence of rising air temperatures in the ground. Beside, due to Holocene climate history, glacier-permafrost interactions are not rare within the periglacial belt. Glacier recurrence may have removed and assimilated former ice-cemented sediments, the negative mass balance may have led to the formation of ice-cored rock glaciers and neopermafrost may have formed recently under cold climate conditions. Hence, in addition to sedimentary ice, high mountain debris-covered glacier systems can contain interstitial magmatic ice. Especially because of their position at the top of alpine cascade systems and of the amount of water and (unconsolidated) sediment involved, it is important to understand and anticipate the evolution of these complex landforms. Due to the continuous and thick debris mantle and to the common existence of dead ice in deglaciated areas, the current extent of debris-covered glacier can be difficult to point out. Thus, the whole system, according to Little Ice Age (LIA) extent, has sometimes to be investigated to understand the current response of glacier systems to the climate warming. In this context, two neighbouring sites, Rognes and Pierre Ronde systems (45°51'38''N, 6°48'40''E; 2600-3100m a.s.l), have been studied since 2011. These sites are almost completely debris-covered and only few ice outcrops in the upper slopes still witness the existence of former glaciers. Electrical resistivity tomographies, kinematic data and ground surface temperature show that heterogeneous responses to climate forcing are occurring despites their small areas (> 0.3 km2). This complex situation is related to Holocene climate history and especially to glacier systems evolution since LIA. The current dynamics depend of ground ice nature and distribution. Five main behaviours can be highlighted: - Debris covered glacier areas are the most active. Their responses to climate forcing are relatively fast, especially through massive ice melt-out each summer. - Ice-cored rock glacier areas are quite active. The existence of massive glacier ice under few meters of debris explain the important surface lowering during the snow free period . - Ice-cemented rock glacier areas are characterised by winter and summer subhorizontal downslope creeping. - Moraine areas containing dead ice have heterogeneous activities (directions and values of detected movements) related to the ice vanishing. - Deglaciated moraine areas are almost inactive, except modest superficial paraglacial rebalancing.

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Process-oriented Observational Metrics for CMIP6 Climate Model Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, J. H.; Su, H.

2016-12-01

Observational metrics based on satellite observations have been developed and effectively applied during post-CMIP5 model evaluation and improvement projects. As new physics and parameterizations continue to be included in models for the upcoming CMIP6, it is important to continue objective comparisons between observations and model results. This talk will summarize the process-oriented observational metrics and methodologies for constraining climate models with A-Train satellite observations and support CMIP6 model assessments. We target parameters and processes related to atmospheric clouds and water vapor, which are critically important for Earth's radiative budget, climate feedbacks, and water and energy cycles, and thus reduce uncertainties in climate models.

Fire effects on aquatic ecosystems: An assessment of the current state of the science

Treesearch

Rebecca J. Bixby; Scott D. Cooper; Robert E. Gresswell; Lee E. Brown; Clifford N. Dahm; Kathleen A. Dwire

2015-01-01

Fire is a prevalent feature of many landscapes and has numerous and complex effects on geological, hydrological, ecological, and economic systems. In some regions, the frequency and intensity of wildfire have increased in recent years and are projected to escalate with predicted climatic and landuse changes. In addition, prescribed burns continue to be used in many...

Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Annual Report and Research Highlights 2011-2012

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.

2012-01-01

Over the last year, the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has continued to advance our GEOS-5-based systems, updating products for both weather and climate applications. We contributed hindcasts and forecasts to the National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) of seasonal forecasts and the suite of decadal predictions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

Are we on the right track: Can our understanding of abscission in model systems promote or derail making improvements in less studied crops

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As the world population grows and resources and climate conditions change, crop improvement continues to be one of the most important challenges for agriculturalists. The yield and quality of many crops is affected by abscission or shattering, and environmental stresses often hasten or alter the abs...

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: An analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kundis Craig, Robin; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Arnold, Craig Anthony (Tony); Birge, Hannah E.; DeCaro, Daniel A.; Fremier, Alexander K.; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-01-01

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: an analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law.

PubMed

Craig, Robin Kundis; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Allen, Craig R; Arnold, Craig Anthony Tony; Birgé, Hannah; DeCaro, Daniel A; Fremier, Alexander K; Gosnell, Hannah; Schlager, Edella

2017-06-30

Adaptive governance must work "on the ground," that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution's legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Climate Forcing Datasets for Agricultural Modeling: Merged Products for Gap-Filling and Historical Climate Series Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Chryssanthacopoulos, James

2014-01-01

The AgMERRA and AgCFSR climate forcing datasets provide daily, high-resolution, continuous, meteorological series over the 1980-2010 period designed for applications examining the agricultural impacts of climate variability and climate change. These datasets combine daily resolution data from retrospective analyses (the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, MERRA, and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, CFSR) with in situ and remotely-sensed observational datasets for temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, leading to substantial reductions in bias in comparison to a network of 2324 agricultural-region stations from the Hadley Integrated Surface Dataset (HadISD). Results compare favorably against the original reanalyses as well as the leading climate forcing datasets (Princeton, WFD, WFD-EI, and GRASP), and AgMERRA distinguishes itself with substantially improved representation of daily precipitation distributions and extreme events owing to its use of the MERRA-Land dataset. These datasets also peg relative humidity to the maximum temperature time of day, allowing for more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of near-surface moisture in agricultural models. AgMERRA and AgCFSR enable a number of ongoing investigations in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related research networks, and may be used to fill gaps in historical observations as well as a basis for the generation of future climate scenarios.

Hemispheric symmetry of the Earth's Energy Balance as a fundamental constraint on the Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, G. L.; Webster, P. J.; OBrien, D. M.

2013-12-01

We currently lack a quantitative understanding of how the Earth's energy balance and the poleward energy transport adjust to different forcings that determine climate change. Currently, there are no constraints that guide this understanding. We will demonstrate that the Earth's energy balance exhibits a remarkable symmetry about the equator, and that this symmetry is a necessary condition of a steady state climate. Our analysis points to clouds as the principal agent that highly regulates this symmetry and sets the steady state. The existence of this thermodynamic steady-state constraint on climate and the symmetry required to sustain it leads to important inferences about the synchronous nature of climate changes between hemispheres, offering for example insights on mechanisms that can sustain global ice ages forced by asymmetric hemispheric solar radiation variations or how climate may respond to increases in greenhouse gas concentration. Further inferences regarding cloud effects on climate can also be deduced without resorting to the complex and intricate processes of cloud formation, whose representation continues to challenge the climate modeling community. The constraint suggests cloud feedbacks must be negative buffering the system against change. We will show that this constraint doesn't exist in the current CMIP5 model experiments and the lack of such a constraint suggests there is insufficient buffering in models in response to external forcings

Climate change and the Delta

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary Parasitic helminths represent one of the most pervasive challenges to livestock, and their intensity and distribution will be influenced by climate change. There is a need for long-term predictions to identify potential risks and highlight opportunities for control. We explore the approaches to modelling future helminth risk to livestock under climate change. One of the limitations to model creation is the lack of purpose driven data collection. We also conclude that models need to include a broad view of the livestock system to generate meaningful predictions. Abstract Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed. PMID:26486780

Warning times for species extinctions due to climate change.

PubMed

Stanton, Jessica C; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Pearson, Richard G; Akçakaya, H Resit

2015-03-01

Climate change is likely to become an increasingly major obstacle to slowing the rate of species extinctions. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for identifying climate-vulnerable species, based on the assumption that established systems such as the IUCN Red List need revising or replacing because they were not developed to explicitly consider climate change. However, no assessment approach has been tested to determine its ability to provide advanced warning time for conservation action for species that might go extinct due to climate change. To test the performance of the Red List system in this capacity, we used linked niche-demographic models with habitat dynamics driven by a 'business-as-usual' climate change scenario. We generated replicate 100-year trajectories for range-restricted reptiles and amphibians endemic to the United States. For each replicate, we categorized the simulated species according to IUCN Red List criteria at annual, 5-year, and 10-year intervals (the latter representing current practice). For replicates that went extinct, we calculated warning time as the number of years the simulated species was continuously listed in a threatened category prior to extinction. To simulate data limitations, we repeated the analysis using a single criterion at a time (disregarding other listing criteria). Results show that when all criteria can be used, the Red List system would provide several decades of warning time (median = 62 years; >20 years for 99% of replicates), but suggest that conservation actions should begin as soon as a species is listed as Vulnerable, because 50% of replicates went extinct within 20 years of becoming uplisted to Critically Endangered. When only one criterion was used, warning times were substantially shorter, but more frequent assessments increased the warning time by about a decade. Overall, we found that the Red List criteria reliably provide a sensitive and precautionary way to assess extinction risk under climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change and Public Health Policy.

PubMed

Smith, Jason A; Vargo, Jason; Hoverter, Sara Pollock

2017-03-01

Climate change poses real and immediate impacts to the public health of populations around the globe. Adverse impacts are expected to continue throughout the century. Emphasizing co-benefits of climate action for health, combining adaptation and mitigation efforts, and increasing interagency coordination can effectively address both public health and climate change challenges.

Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

Greenhouse intelligent control system based on microcontroller

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Congwei

2018-04-01

As one of the hallmarks of agricultural modernization, intelligent greenhouse has the advantages of high yield, excellent quality, no pollution and continuous planting. Taking AT89S52 microcontroller as the main controller, the greenhouse intelligent control system uses soil moisture sensor, temperature and humidity sensors, light intensity sensor and CO2 concentration sensor to collect measurements and display them on the 12864 LCD screen real-time. Meantime, climate parameter values can be manually set online. The collected measured values are compared with the set standard values, and then the lighting, ventilation fans, warming lamps, water pumps and other facilities automatically start to adjust the climate such as light intensity, CO2 concentration, temperature, air humidity and soil moisture of the greenhouse parameter. So, the state of the environment in the greenhouse Stabilizes and the crop grows in a suitable environment.

Application of Ecosystem Models to Assess Environmental Drivers of Mosquito Abundance and Virus Transmission Risk and Associated Public Health Implications of Climate and Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melton, F.; Barker, C.; Park, B.; Reisen, W.; Michaelis, A.; Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Hiatt, S.; Nemani, R.

2008-12-01

The NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) is a modeling framework that integrates satellite observations, meteorological observations, and ancillary data to support monitoring and modeling of ecosystem and land surface conditions in near real-time. TOPS provides spatially continuous gridded estimates of a suite of measurements describing environmental conditions, and these data products are currently being applied to support the development of new models capable of forecasting estimated mosquito abundance and transmission risk for mosquito-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. We present results from the modeling analyses, describe their incorporation into the California Vectorborne Disease Surveillance System, and describe possible implications of projected climate and land use change for patterns in mosquito abundance and transmission risk for West Nile virus in California.

The BRIDGE HadCM3 family of climate models: HadCM3@Bristol v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valdes, Paul J.; Armstrong, Edward; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Bradshaw, Catherine D.; Bragg, Fran; Crucifix, Michel; Davies-Barnard, Taraka; Day, Jonathan J.; Farnsworth, Alex; Gordon, Chris; Hopcroft, Peter O.; Kennedy, Alan T.; Lord, Natalie S.; Lunt, Dan J.; Marzocchi, Alice; Parry, Louise M.; Pope, Vicky; Roberts, William H. G.; Stone, Emma J.; Tourte, Gregory J. L.; Williams, Jonny H. T.

2017-10-01

Understanding natural and anthropogenic climate change processes involves using computational models that represent the main components of the Earth system: the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. These models have become increasingly computationally expensive as resolution is increased and more complex process representations are included. However, to gain robust insight into how climate may respond to a given forcing, and to meaningfully quantify the associated uncertainty, it is often required to use either or both ensemble approaches and very long integrations. For this reason, more computationally efficient models can be very valuable tools. Here we provide a comprehensive overview of the suite of climate models based around the HadCM3 coupled general circulation model. This model was developed at the UK Met Office and has been heavily used during the last 15 years for a range of future (and past) climate change studies, but has now been largely superseded for many scientific studies by more recently developed models. However, it continues to be extensively used by various institutions, including the BRIDGE (Bristol Research Initiative for the Dynamic Global Environment) research group at the University of Bristol, who have made modest adaptations to the base HadCM3 model over time. These adaptations mean that the original documentation is not entirely representative, and several other relatively undocumented configurations are in use. We therefore describe the key features of a number of configurations of the HadCM3 climate model family, which together make up HadCM3@Bristol version 1.0. In order to differentiate variants that have undergone development at BRIDGE, we have introduced the letter B into the model nomenclature. We include descriptions of the atmosphere-only model (HadAM3B), the coupled model with a low-resolution ocean (HadCM3BL), the high-resolution atmosphere-only model (HadAM3BH), and the regional model (HadRM3B). These also include three versions of the land surface scheme. By comparing with observational datasets, we show that these models produce a good representation of many aspects of the climate system, including the land and sea surface temperatures, precipitation, ocean circulation, and vegetation. This evaluation, combined with the relatively fast computational speed (up to 1000 times faster than some CMIP6 models), motivates continued development and scientific use of the HadCM3B family of coupled climate models, predominantly for quantifying uncertainty and for long multi-millennial-scale simulations.

Governance and networks for health co-benefits of climate change mitigation: Lessons from two Indian cities.

PubMed

Puppim de Oliveira, Jose A; Doll, Christopher N H

2016-12-01

Health has been the main driver for many urban environmental interventions, particularly in cases of significant health problems linked to poor urban environmental conditions. This paper examines empirically the links between climate change mitigation and health in urban areas, when health is the main driver for improvements. The paper aims to understand how systems of urban governance can enable or prevent the creation of health outcomes via continuous improvements in the environmental conditions in a city. The research draws on cases from two Indian cities where initiatives were undertaken in different sectors: Surat (waste) and Delhi (transportation). Using the literature on network effectiveness as an analytical framework, the paper compares the cases to identify the possible ways to strengthen the governance and policy making process in the urban system so that each intervention can intentionally realize multiple impacts for both local health and climate change mitigation in the long term as well as factors that may pose a threat to long-term progress and revert back to the previous situation after initial achievements. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Introduction to the special issue on molecular spectroscopy, atmospheric composition and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudon, Vincent; Sears, Trevor; Coheur, Pierre-François

2018-06-01

Changes to the Earth's climate system resulting from modification of the atmosphere caused by both anthropogenic and natural effects are one of the great long-term threats to our society. In order to measure and understand the drivers of these changes, quantitative field measurements combined with precise and accurate laboratory data are needed. The Kyoto Protocol [1], signed in 1997, focused the scientific community on the need for data aimed at developing a better understanding of the physics and chemistry of molecular and aerosol species that lead to long-term climate change. The results have been impressive. Continuous and extensive concentration measurements are now being performed from the ground, e.g. the TCCON network, from balloons and airplanes and, of course, from space (e.g. ACE-Scisat, TANSO-GOSAT, IASI-Metop, OCO-2, Sentinel-5P, …). With the observing system now in place the concentration profiles of a suite of species, including greenhouse gases, aerosol precursors and others are measured with increasing precision over large areas of the Earth, leading to a much more complete understanding of the radiative forcing budget.

Built Expansion and Global Climate Change Drive Projected Urban Heat: Relative Magnitudes, Interactions, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2016-12-01

Surface climates are projected to warm due to global climate change over the course of the 21st century, and demographic projections suggest urban areas in the United States will continue to expand and develop, with associated local climate outcomes. Interactions between these two drivers of urban heat have not been robustly quantified to date. Here, simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (coupled to a Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model) are performed at 20 km resolution over the continental U.S. for two 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009) and end-of-century (2090-2099). Present and end of century urban land use are derived from the Environmental Protection Agency's Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios. Modelled effects on urban climates are evaluated regionally. Sensitivity to climate projection (Community Climate System Model 4.0, RCP 4.5 vs. RCP 8.5) and associated urban development scenarios are assessed. Effects on near-surface urban air temperature of RCP8.5 climate change are greater than those attributable to the corresponding urban development in many regions. Interaction effects vary by region, and while of lesser magnitude, are not negligible. Moreover, urban development and its interactions with RCP8.5 climate change modify the distribution of convective precipitation over the eastern US. Interaction effects result from the different meteorological effects of urban areas under current and future climate. Finally, the potential for design implementations such as green roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Impacts of these implementations on precipitation are also assessed.

Development of Raman-Mie lidar system for aerosol and water vapor profiling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qian; Wang, Zhenzhu; Xu, Jiwei; Tan, Min; Wu, Decheng; Xie, Chenbo; Liu, Dong; Wang, Yingjian

2018-03-01

Aerosol and water vapor are two important atmospheric parameters. The accurate quantification of diurnal variation of these parameters are very useful for environment assessment and climate change studies. A moveable, compact and unattended lidar system based on modular design is developed for aerosol extinction coefficients and water vapor mixing ratios measurements. In the southern suburbs of Beijing, the continuous observation was carried out by this lidar since the middle of the year of 2017. The lidar equipment is presented and the case study is also described in this paper. The observational results show that the lidar kept a very good status from the long-time continuous measurements which is suitable for networking especially in meteorological research field.

An Early Pleistocene 190 kyr pollen record from the ODP Site 976, Western Mediterranean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joannin, Sebastien; Combourieu Nebout, Nathalie

2010-05-01

The Mid-Pleistocene Transition (1.200 to 0.500 Ma) corresponded to a period of increased cooling and the shift from "41 kyr world" to "100 kyr world". Climate cycles were 41 kyr long as a response of the climate system to the obliquity orbital parameter forcing, then the climate system responded to a combination of eccentricity and precession resulting in 100 kyr long cycles. The Mediterranean region offers the opportunity to study climate response to orbital forcing at this particular period. It is usually done on marine proxies that are preserved in continuous sediments with good age attributions but may be affected by calorific inertia of marine environments. We investigate continental palaeoenvironment changes inferred from pollen analyses through time on a short interval of the ODP Site 976 (259.50 to 230.42 mcd). In order to search for short climate oscillations, the chronology has been refined according to the comparison between the pollen ratio "mesothermic vs. Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae and steppe elements" curve and Mediterranean and LR04 oxygen isotope curves. The time slice runs from ~1.090 Ma (MIS 31) to ~0.900 Ma (MIS 23). Pollen analyses provide a new record of the south western Mediterranean vegetation and climate changes at the beginning of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Vegetation successions are evidenced in pollen diagram with replacement of mesothermic elements by mid- and high-altitude trees, ended by strengthening of Caryophyllaceae, Amaranthaceae-Chenopodiaceae, and steppe vegetation. These vegetation successions reveal two overlapping rhythms that may be related to climate responses to both obliquity and precession orbital parameters, while wavelet analyses on pollen ratio only indicate the shift from precession to obliquity dominance. The comparison of these two approaches raised the question of their own limit.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Isoprene Emission: Diversity Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

2016-12-01

Many abiotic and biotic factors influence volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission by plants; for example, climate warming is widely projected to enhance VOC emissions by stimulating their biosynthesis. The species-dependent nature of VOC production by plants indicates that changes in species abundances may play an important role in determining VOC production and emission at the ecosystem scale. To date, however, the role of species abundances in affecting VOC emissions has not been well studied. We examine the role of forest systems as sources of VOC's in terms of how species diversity and abundance influence isoprene emission under climate warming by using an individual-based forest VOC emission model—UVAFME-VOC 1.0—that can explicitly simulate forest compositional and structural change and VOC production/emission at the individual and canopy scales. We simulate isoprene emissions under two warming scenarios (warming by 2 and 4 °C) for temperate deciduous forests of the southeastern United States, where the dominant isoprene-emitting species are oaks (Quercus). The simulations show that, contrary to previous expectations, a warming by 2 °C does not affect isoprene emissions, while a further warming by 4 °C causes a large reduction of isoprene emissions. Interestingly, climate warming can directly enhance isoprene emission and simultaneously indirectly reduce it by lowering the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. Under gradual continuous warming, the indirect effect outweighs the direct effect, thus reducing overall forest isoprene emission. This modelling study shows that climate warming does not necessarily stimulate ecosystem VOC emissions and, more generally, that ecosystem diversity and composition can play a significant role in determining vegetation VOC emission capacity. Future earth system models and climate-chemistry models should better represent species diversity in projecting climate-air quality feedbacks and making management policy recommendations.

Canopy nitrogen, carbon assimilation, and albedo in temperate and boreal forests: Functional relations and potential climate feedbacks.

PubMed

Ollinger, S V; Richardson, A D; Martin, M E; Hollinger, D Y; Frolking, S E; Reich, P B; Plourde, L C; Katul, G G; Munger, J W; Oren, R; Smith, M-L; Paw U, K T; Bolstad, P V; Cook, B D; Day, M C; Martin, T A; Monson, R K; Schmid, H P

2008-12-09

The availability of nitrogen represents a key constraint on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is largely in this capacity that the role of N in the Earth's climate system has been considered. Despite this, few studies have included continuous variation in plant N status as a driver of broad-scale carbon cycle analyses. This is partly because of uncertainties in how leaf-level physiological relationships scale to whole ecosystems and because methods for regional to continental detection of plant N concentrations have yet to be developed. Here, we show that ecosystem CO(2) uptake capacity in temperate and boreal forests scales directly with whole-canopy N concentrations, mirroring a leaf-level trend that has been observed for woody plants worldwide. We further show that both CO(2) uptake capacity and canopy N concentration are strongly and positively correlated with shortwave surface albedo. These results suggest that N plays an additional, and overlooked, role in the climate system via its influence on vegetation reflectivity and shortwave surface energy exchange. We also demonstrate that much of the spatial variation in canopy N can be detected by using broad-band satellite sensors, offering a means through which these findings can be applied toward improved application of coupled carbon cycle-climate models.

Canopy nitrogen, carbon assimilation, and albedo in temperate and boreal forests: Functional relations and potential climate feedbacks

PubMed Central

Ollinger, S. V.; Richardson, A. D.; Martin, M. E.; Hollinger, D. Y.; Frolking, S. E.; Reich, P. B.; Plourde, L. C.; Katul, G. G.; Munger, J. W.; Oren, R.; Smith, M.-L.; Paw U, K. T.; Bolstad, P. V.; Cook, B. D.; Day, M. C.; Martin, T. A.; Monson, R. K.; Schmid, H. P.

2008-01-01

The availability of nitrogen represents a key constraint on carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and it is largely in this capacity that the role of N in the Earth's climate system has been considered. Despite this, few studies have included continuous variation in plant N status as a driver of broad-scale carbon cycle analyses. This is partly because of uncertainties in how leaf-level physiological relationships scale to whole ecosystems and because methods for regional to continental detection of plant N concentrations have yet to be developed. Here, we show that ecosystem CO2 uptake capacity in temperate and boreal forests scales directly with whole-canopy N concentrations, mirroring a leaf-level trend that has been observed for woody plants worldwide. We further show that both CO2 uptake capacity and canopy N concentration are strongly and positively correlated with shortwave surface albedo. These results suggest that N plays an additional, and overlooked, role in the climate system via its influence on vegetation reflectivity and shortwave surface energy exchange. We also demonstrate that much of the spatial variation in canopy N can be detected by using broad-band satellite sensors, offering a means through which these findings can be applied toward improved application of coupled carbon cycle–climate models. PMID:19052233

A review of the global relationship among freshwater fish, autotrophic activity, and regional climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deines, Andrew M.; Bunnell, David B.; Rogers, Mark W.; Beard, T. Douglas; Taylor, William W.

2015-01-01

The relationship between autotrophic activity and freshwater fish populations is an important consideration for ecologists describing trophic structure in aquatic communities, fisheries managers tasked with increasing sustainable fisheries development, and fish farmers seeking to maximize production. Previous studies of the empirical relationships of autotrophic activity and freshwater fish yield have found positive relationships but were limited by small sample sizes, small geographic scopes, and the inability to compare patterns among many types of measurement techniques. Individual studies and reviews have also lacked consistent consideration of regional climate factors which may inform relationships between fisheries and autotrophic activity. We compiled data from over 700 freshwater systems worldwide and used meta-analysis and linear models to develop a comprehensive global synthesis between multiple metrics of autotrophic activity, fisheries, and climate indicators. Our results demonstrate that multiple metrics of fish (i.e., catch per unit effort, yield, and production) increase with autotrophic activity across a variety of fisheries. At the global scale additional variation in this positive relationship can be ascribed to regional climate differences (i.e., temperature and precipitation) across systems. Our results provide a method and proof-of-concept for assessing inland fisheries production at the global scale, where current estimates are highly uncertain, and may therefore inform the continued sustainable use of global inland fishery resources.

Towards Better Simulation of US Maize Yield Responses to Climate in the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, B.; Guan, K.; Chen, M.; Lawrence, D. M.; Jin, Z.; Bernacchi, C.; Ainsworth, E. A.; DeLucia, E. H.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lu, Y.

2017-12-01

Global food security is undergoing continuing pressure from increased population and climate change despites the potential advancement in breeding and management technologies. Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study the impacts of historical and future climate on regional and global food production, as well as to assess the effectiveness of possible adaptations and their potential feedback to climate. Here we developed an improved maize representation within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) by combining the strengths of both the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) models. Specifically, we modified the maize planting scheme, incorporated the phenology scheme adopted from the APSIM model, added a new carbon allocation scheme into CLM4.5, and improved the estimation of canopy structure parameters including leaf area index (LAI) and canopy height. Unique features of the new model (CLM-APSIM) include more detailed phenology stages, an explicit implementation of the impacts of various abiotic environmental stresses (including nitrogen, water, temperature and heat stresses) on maize phenology and carbon allocation, as well as an explicit simulation of grain number and grain size. We conducted a regional simulation of this new model over the US Corn Belt during 1990 to 2010. The simulated maize yield as well as its responses to climate (growing season mean temperature and precipitation) are benchmarked with data from UADA NASS statistics. Our results show that the CLM-APSIM model outperforms the CLM4.5 in simulating county-level maize yield production and reproduces more realistic yield responses to climate variations than CLM4.5. However, some critical processes (such as crop failure due to frost and inundation and suboptimal growth condition due to biotic stresses) are still missing in both CLM-APSIM and CLM4.5, making the simulated yield responses to climate slightly deviate from the reality. Our results demonstrate that with improved paramterization of crop growth, the ESMs can be powerful tools for realistically simulating agricultural production, which is gaining increasing interests and critical to study of global food security and food-energy-water nexus.

Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

2015-12-01

Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

Perspectives on Climate Effects on Agriculture: The International Efforts of AgMIP in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kihara, Job; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Bationo, Andre; Koala, Saidou; Hickman, Jonathon; Koo, Jawoo; Vanya, Charles; Adiku, Samuel; Beletse, Yacob; Masikate, Patricia;

Response of the groundwater system in the Guanzhong Basin (central China) to climate change and human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenke; Zhang, Zaiyong; Duan, Lei; Wang, Zhoufeng; Zhao, Yaqian; Zhang, Qian; Dai, Meiling; Liu, Huizhong; Zheng, Xiaoyan; Sun, Yibo

2018-03-01

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.

The AmeriFlux data activity and data system: an evolving collection of data management techniques, tools, products and services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boden, T. A.; Krassovski, M.; Yang, B.

2013-06-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the US Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Among the many data archived and available from CDIAC are collections from long-term measurement projects. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. To successfully manage AmeriFlux data and support climate change research, CDIAC has designed flexible data systems using proven technologies and standards blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. The AmeriFlux data system, comprised primarily of a relational database, a PHP-based data interface and a FTP server, offers a broad suite of AmeriFlux data. The data interface allows users to query the AmeriFlux collection in a variety of ways and then subset, visualize and download the data. From the perspective of data stewardship, on the other hand, this system is designed for CDIAC to easily control database content, automate data movement, track data provenance, manage metadata content, and handle frequent additions and corrections. CDIAC and researchers in the flux community developed data submission guidelines to enhance the AmeriFlux data collection, enable automated data processing, and promote standardization across regional networks. Both continuous flux and meteorological data and irregular biological data collected at AmeriFlux sites are carefully scrutinized by CDIAC using established quality-control algorithms before the data are ingested into the AmeriFlux data system. Other tasks at CDIAC include reformatting and standardizing the diverse and heterogeneous datasets received from individual sites into a uniform and consistent network database, generating high-level derived products to meet the current demands from a broad user group, and developing new products in anticipation of future needs. In this paper, we share our approaches to meet the challenges of standardizing, archiving and delivering quality, well-documented AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges of handling diverse climate change data, to further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and to highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.

The AmeriFlux data activity and data system: an evolving collection of data management techniques, tools, products and services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boden, T. A.; Krassovski, M.; Yang, B.

2013-02-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the US Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Among the many data archived and available from CDIAC are collections from long-term measurement projects. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. To successfully manage AmeriFlux data and support climate change research, CDIAC has designed flexible data systems using proven technologies and standards blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. The AmeriFlux data system, comprised primarily of a relational database, a PHP based data-interface and a FTP server, offers a broad suite of AmeriFlux data. The data interface allows users to query the AmeriFlux collection in a variety of ways and then subset, visualize and download the data. From the perspective of data stewardship, on the other hand, this system is designed for CDIAC to easily control database content, automate data movement, track data provenance, manage metadata content, and handle frequent additions and corrections. CDIAC and researchers in the flux community developed data submission guidelines to enhance the AmeriFlux data collection, enable automated data processing, and promote standardization across regional networks. Both continuous flux and meteorological data and irregular biological data collected at AmeriFlux sites are carefully scrutinized by CDIAC using established quality-control algorithms before the data are ingested into the AmeriFlux data system. Other tasks at CDIAC include reformatting and standardizing the diverse and heterogeneous datasets received from individual sites into a uniform and consistent network database, generating high-level derived products to meet the current demands from a broad user group, and developing new products in anticipation of future needs. In this paper, we share our approaches to meet the challenges of standardizing, archiving and delivering quality, well-documented AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges of handling diverse climate change data, to further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and to highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.

Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

2014-05-01

Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are likely to remain the same until the 2040's, then followed by a second step of warming and drying trend. During the last ten years, local farmers have been experiencing difficulties to combine challenges from an increasing competition in markets and from hotter and drier conditions. Helped by public subsidies, almost one-third of the vineyard was pulled out during that period. Up until the 2040's, with similar conditions, the local viticultural system should continue its transformation, favouring dynamic, proactive and enterprising farmers. Thus the composition of the farming community might change gradually, and count in the 2040's a majority of producers with a higher individual adaptive capacity than now. The timing and intensity of near-future climate change as measured by the climate model, combined to regional economic change, might thus be an asset to prepare and facilitate adaptation in the longer term.

A Kaleidoscope of Understanding: Pre-service Elementary Teachers' Knowledge of Climate Change Concepts and Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, D.; Bullock, S.; Hayhoe, K.

2010-12-01

Teachers are at the forefront of efforts to increase climate literacy; however, even teachers’ understanding can contain significant misconceptions. Probes aimed at capturing these misconceptions have been used with pre-service teachers in several countries. Here, we report on a unique 59-item questionnaire useful as a pre-post diagnostic for teacher training. Topics include Earth’s climate system, long-range climatic changes, recent changes, various gases and types of radiation involved in the greenhouse effect, future impacts of climate change, and mitigation options This questionnaire is unique in three ways: 1. the topics include climate change concepts not usually probed, 2. the questions have a binary-choice format that avoided both the “positive statement bias” of agree-disagree questions and the superfluous distractors of multiple-choice tests, and 3. the questionnaire was piloted with pre-service elementary teachers in Toronto, one of the most multicultural cities in the world. The questionnaire items were written for the Ontario curriculum (K-10); however, they also address almost all of the principles identified in Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. The questionnaire was completed by 89 volunteers from a pool of 280. Most had a substantial knowledge of climate change concepts, with 34 of the 59 questions being answered correctly by more than 60% of the subjects. The item discrimination of most questions was relatively low, however, and only a very few item pairs showed a significant correlation. This suggests that subjects’ knowledge consisted of a “kaleidoscope of understanding,” rather than a coherent picture. Significant misconceptions were also identified, with 18 of the 59 items being answered incorrectly by more than 60% of the subjects. Of these, 11 correspond to misconceptions previously noted, while 7 suggest new misconceptions not yet identified in studies done with students or teachers, such as the idea that most of the Sun’s radiant energy is concentrated in the infrared part rather than in the visible part of the spectrum (92%), the amount of energy that Earth’s system radiates into outer space every day is much less than the amount of energy it receives from the Sun every day (65%), and waste heat resulting from human use of fossil fuel contributes significantly to global warming (82%). On the other hand, the pre-service teachers understood well several other important concepts such as the fact that Earth’s surface continues to give off radiation at night (94%) and that Earth’s climate has varied in long-period natural cycles (92%). These findings have several implications for the teaching of climate change concepts to elementary pre-service teachers: 1. the coherence between concepts taken from various sciences should be emphasized, 2. the concepts that are (surprisingly) understood well by a great majority of teachers should be built upon, and 3. activities should be developed to address the many misconceptions that continue to persist in pre-service elementary teachers’ understanding.

Global Change And Water Availability And Quality: Challenges Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, M. C.; Ryker, S. J.

2012-12-01

The United States is in the midst of a continental-scale, multi-year water-resources experiment, in which society has not defined testable hypotheses or set the duration and scope of the experiment. What are we doing? We are expanding population at two to three times the national growth rate in our most water-scarce states, in the southwest, where water stress is already great and modeling predicts decreased streamflow by the middle of this century. We are expanding irrigated agriculture from the west into the east, particularly to the southeastern states, where increased competition for ground and surface water has urban, agricultural, and environmental interests at odds, and increasingly, in court. We are expanding our consumption of pharmaceutical and personal care products to historic high levels and disposing of them in surface and groundwater, through sewage treatment plants and individual septic systems that were not designed to treat them. These and other examples of our national-scale experiment are likely to continue well into the 21st century. This experiment and related challenges will continue and likely intensify as non-climatic and climatic factors, such as predicted rising temperature and changes in the distribution of precipitation in time and space, continue to develop.

Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravelo, A. C.

2003-12-01

The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must have been primarily responsible for NHG at 2.75 Ma. And, regional air-sea feedbacks in the tropics, rather than ice sheet expansion, must have been primarily responsible for the marked increase in Walker circulation at 2.0 Ma. Finally, the detailed timing of events from different regions suggests that a tectonic `threshold' cannot explain the warm to cold climate transition. Studies of the last 5.0 Ma can also be used to understand how climate responds to changes in the Earth's radiative budget because seasonal and latitudinal variations in solar forcing are extremely well known, and many of the records that have been generated have the resolution and age control appropriate for the study of the climate response to these variations (Milankovitch cycles). In particular, how feedbacks operate when the mean climate state is warm versus cold can be studied. There is clear evidence that the amplitude of the climate response to solar forcing depends on the background mean state. In other words, the sensitivity of the climate to small perturbations in solar forcing has changed with time, and the balance of evidence indicates that tropical conditions, not high latitude conditions (such as ice sheet size) control this sensitivity. In sum, the Ocean Drilling Program has provided scientists with a window into the Pliocene warm period, and an opportunity to understand the workings of the ocean-climate system

Connectivity planning to address climate change

Treesearch

Tristan A. Nuñez; Joshua J. Lawler; Brad H. McRae; D. John Pierce; Meade B. Krosby; Darren M. Kavanagh; Peter H. Singleton; Joshua J. Tewksbury

2013-01-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad...

Multi-channel Scaler Cards Improve Data Collection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

Scientists interested in exploring the intricacies and dynamics of Earth's climate and ecosystems continually need smaller, lighter instrumentation that can be placed onboard various sensing platforms, such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). Responding to a need for improved data collection for remote atmospheric measurement systems, ASRC Aerospace Corporation, of Greenbelt, Maryland, developed a series of low-power, highly integrated, multichannel scaler (MCS) cards. The cards were designed to meet the needs of NASA's ground-based and airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) photoncounting programs. They can rapidly collect thousands of data points during a continuous scan of the atmosphere.

Terra - 15 Years as the Earth Observing System Flagship Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thome, K. J.

2014-12-01

Terra marks its 15th year on orbit with an array of accomplishments and the potential to do much more. Efforts continue to extend the Terra data record to make its data more valuable by creating a record length to examine interannual variability, observe trends on the decadal scale, and gather statistics relevant to climate metrics. Continued data from Terra's complementary instruments will play a key role in creating the data record needed for scientists to develop an understanding of our climate system. Terra's suite of instruments: ASTER (contributed by the Japanese Ministry of Economy and Trade and Industry with a JPL-led US Science Team), CERES (NASA LaRC - PI), MISR (JPL - PI), MODIS (NASA GSFC), and MOPITT (sponsored by Canadian Space Agency with NCAR-led Science Team) are providing an unprecedented 81 core data products. The annual demand for Terra data remains with >120 million files distributed in 2011 and >157 million in 2012. More than 1,100 peer-reviewed publications appeared in 2012 using Terra data bringing the lifetime total >7,600. Citation numbers of 21,000 for 2012 and over 100,000 for the mission's lifetime. The power of Terra is in the high quality of the data calibration, sensor characterization, and the complementary nature of the instruments covering a range of scientific measurements as well as scales. The broad range of products enable the community to provide answers to the overarching question, "How is the Earth changing and what are the consequences for life on Earth?" Terra continues to provide data that: (1) Extend the baseline of morning-orbit collections; (2) Enable comparison of measurements acquired from past high-impact events; (3) Add value to recently-launched and soon-to-be launched missions, and upcoming field programs. Terra data continue to support monitoring and relief efforts for natural and man-made disasters that involve U.S. interests. Terra also contributes to Applications Focus Areas supporting the U.S. National Objectives for agriculture, air quality, climate, disaster management, ecological forecasting, public health, water resources, and weather.

Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

PubMed

Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

2013-06-01

With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to realizing climate objectives. Discussions on agriculture are continuing with a view to finding an acceptable approach to address the climate change related challenges faced by agriculture worldwide and to ensure that 'food production is not threatened'.

Earth radiation balance and climate: Why the Moon is the wrong place to observe the Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kandel, Robert S.

1994-06-01

Increasing 'greenhouse' gases in the Earth's atmosphere will perturb the Earth's radiation balance, forcing climate change over coming decades. Climate sensitivity depends critically on cloud-radiation feedback: its evaluation requires continual observation of changing patterns of Earth radiation balance and cloud cover. The Moon is the wrong place for such observations, with many disadvantages compared to an observation system combining platforms in low polar, intermediate-inclination and geostationary orbits. From the Moon, active observations are infeasible; thermal infrared observations require very large instruments to reach spatial resolutions obtained at much lower cost from geostationary or lower orbits. The Earth's polar zones are never well observed from the Moon; other zones are invisible more than half the time. The monthly illumination cycle leads to further bias in radiation budget determinations. The Earth will be a pretty sight from the Earth-side of the Moon, but serious Earth observations will be made elsewhere.

Mechanical Description of the Mars Climate Sounder Instrument

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jau, Bruno M.

2008-01-01

This paper introduces the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) Instrument of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft. The instrument scans the Martian atmosphere almost continuously to systematically acquire weather and climate observations over time. Its primary components are an optical bench that houses dual telescopes with a total of nine channels for visible and infrared sensing, and a two axis gimbal that provides pointing capabilities. Both rotating joints consist of an integrated actuator with a hybrid planetary/harmonic transmission and a twist cap section that enables the electrical wiring to pass through the rotating joint. Micro stepping is used to reduce spacecraft disturbance torques to acceptable levels while driving the stepper motors. To ensure survivability over its four year life span, suitable mechanical components, lubrication, and an active temperature control system were incorporated. Some life test results and lessons learned are provided to serve as design guidelines for actuator parts and flex cables.

Impacts of Canadian and global black carbon shipping emissions on Arctic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, R.; von Salzen, K.

2017-12-01

Shipping activities have increased across the Arctic and are projected to continue to increase in the future. In this study we compare the climate impacts of Canadian and global shipping black carbon (BC) emissions on the Arctic using the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM4.1). The model simulations are performed with and without shipping emissions at T63 (128 x 64) spectral resolution. Results indicate that shipping activities enhance BC concentrations across the area close to the shipping emissions, which causes increased absorption of solar radiation (direct effect). An impact of shipping on temperatures is simulated across the entire Arctic, with maximum warming in fall and winter seasons. Although global mean temperature changes are very similar between the two simulations, increase in Canadian BC shipping emissions cause warmer Arctic land surface temperature in summer due to the direct radiative effects of aerosol.

Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Nonstationarity on Seasonal Streamflow Predictability in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehner, Flavio; Wood, Andrew W.; Llewellyn, Dagmar; Blatchford, Douglas B.; Goodbody, Angus G.; Pappenberger, Florian

2017-12-01

Seasonal streamflow predictions provide a critical management tool for water managers in the American Southwest. In recent decades, persistent prediction errors for spring and summer runoff volumes have been observed in a number of watersheds in the American Southwest. While mostly driven by decadal precipitation trends, these errors also relate to the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow in these basins. Here we show that incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from operational global climate prediction models into streamflow forecasting models adds prediction skill for watersheds in the headwaters of the Colorado and Rio Grande River basins. Current dynamical seasonal temperature forecasts now show sufficient skill to reduce streamflow forecast errors in snowmelt-driven regions. Such predictions can increase the resilience of streamflow forecasting and water management systems in the face of continuing warming as well as decadal-scale temperature variability and thus help to mitigate the impacts of climate nonstationarity on streamflow predictability.

U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the

New tools for linking human and earth system models: The Toolbox for Human-Earth System Interaction & Scaling (THESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Kauffman, B.; Lawrence, P.

2016-12-01

Integrated analysis of questions regarding land, water, and energy resources often requires integration of models of different types. One type of integration is between human and earth system models, since both societal and physical processes influence these resources. For example, human processes such as changes in population, economic conditions, and policies govern the demand for land, water and energy, while the interactions of these resources with physical systems determine their availability and environmental consequences. We have begun to develop and use a toolkit for linking human and earth system models called the Toolbox for Human-Earth System Integration and Scaling (THESIS). THESIS consists of models and software tools to translate, scale, and synthesize information from and between human system models and earth system models (ESMs), with initial application to linking the NCAR integrated assessment model, iPETS, with the NCAR earth system model, CESM. Initial development is focused on urban areas and agriculture, sectors that are both explicitly represented in both CESM and iPETS. Tools are being made available to the community as they are completed (see https://www2.cgd.ucar.edu/sections/tss/iam/THESIS_tools). We discuss four general types of functions that THESIS tools serve (Spatial Distribution, Spatial Properties, Consistency, and Outcome Evaluation). Tools are designed to be modular and can be combined in order to carry out more complex analyses. We illustrate their application to both the exposure of population to climate extremes and to the evaluation of climate impacts on the agriculture sector. For example, projecting exposure to climate extremes involves use of THESIS tools for spatial population, spatial urban land cover, the characteristics of both, and a tool to bring urban climate information together with spatial population information. Development of THESIS tools is continuing and open to the research community.

Progress Toward Achieving an IR Radiance Record for Decadal Climate Trending: Fundamental Questions, Challenges, and Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revercomb, H. E.; Knuteson, R. O.; Tobin, D. C.; Best, F. A.; Taylor, J. K.; Martin, G.; Gero, P. J.; Adler, D.; Pettersen, C.; Mulligan, M.; Thielman, D.

2017-12-01

Infrared radiance spectra can be measured with very high accuracy (0.1 K 3-sigma brightness temperature at scene brightness temperature) and contain a high degree of information about the state of the Earth's climate, including temperature, water vapor, and trace gas profiles, lapse rates, plus cloud and surface properties. How best to make use of existing EOS-AIRS and Suomi NPP/JPSS-CrIS/IASI observations and how to move toward more extensive future observations is a fundamental question that the climate community and world's space agencies need to address. A major step toward achieving climate quality observations was realized through the successes of the operational sounders IASI-A & B on MetOp and the CrIS on Suomi NPP. Both instrument types are expected to continue as part of the Joint Polar Satellite system through at least 2040 (with upgrades to IASI and hopefully to CrIS as well). IASI covers the 0930 time slot and CrIS the 1330 slot for operational weather forecasting applications. This represents a major step toward the unbiased sampling needed for accurate climate trending products. However, there is still a hole at the 0530 dawn/dusk time slot that needs to be filled. The new Chinese hyperspectral sounder, HIRAS, is expected to fulfill this need when FY3E is launched in 2018. In addition to improved sampling, the system of operational Fourier transform sounding instruments offer other measurement accuracy advantages over earlier instruments. This talk will review some of these, including review of CrIS accuracy estimates, discussion of several specific error sources, and the fundamental ability of these instruments to produce well-defined, stable, and largely instrument independent Instrument Line Shape (ILS) functions. In this context, we will address EOS to Suomi NPP spectral radiance continuity issues. Finally, optimizing this system still requires an on-orbit 0.1 K 3-sigma calibration reference that is not susceptible to long-term drifts and that can be used to correct inconsistencies among the different sensors. The new technologies needed to provide this capability have been developed under NASA ESTO and the CLARREO program, and should be flown as soon as possible. For the infrared it is widely accepted that a Fourier transform instrument provides the best possible reference sensor.

Progress towards NASA MODIS and Suomi NPP Cloud Property Data Record Continuity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platnick, S.; Meyer, K.; Holz, R.; Ackerman, S. A.; Heidinger, A.; Wind, G.; Platnick, S. E.; Wang, C.; Marchant, B.; Frey, R.

2017-12-01

The Suomi NPP VIIRS imager provides an opportunity to extend the 17+ year EOS MODIS climate data record into the next generation operational era. Similar to MODIS, VIIRS provides visible through IR observations at moderate spatial resolution with a 1330 LT equatorial crossing consistent with the MODIS on the Aqua platform. However, unlike MODIS, VIIRS lacks key water vapor and CO2 absorbing channels used for high cloud detection and cloud-top property retrievals. In addition, there is a significant mismatch in the spectral location of the 2.2 μm shortwave-infrared channels used for cloud optical/microphysical retrievals and cloud thermodynamic phase. Given these instrument differences between MODIS EOS and VIIRS S-NPP/JPSS, a merged MODIS-VIIRS cloud record to serve the science community in the coming decades requires different algorithm approaches than those used for MODIS alone. This new approach includes two parallel efforts: (1) Imager-only algorithms with only spectral channels common to VIIRS and MODIS (i.e., eliminate use of MODIS CO2 and NIR/IR water vapor channels). Since the algorithms are run with similar spectral observations, they provide a basis for establishing a continuous cloud data record across the two imagers. (2) Merged imager and sounder measurements (i.e.., MODIS-AIRS, VIIRS-CrIS) in lieu of higher-spatial resolution MODIS absorption channels absent on VIIRS. The MODIS-VIIRS continuity algorithm for cloud optical property retrievals leverages heritage algorithms that produce the existing MODIS cloud mask (MOD35), optical and microphysical properties product (MOD06), and the NOAA AWG Cloud Height Algorithm (ACHA). We discuss our progress towards merging the MODIS observational record with VIIRS in order to generate cloud optical property climate data record continuity across the observing systems. In addition, we summarize efforts to reconcile apparent radiometric biases between analogous imager channels, a critical consideration for obtaining inter-sensor climate data record continuity.

The NASA Earth Science Flight Program: an update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-10-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the space based observing systems and infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions and selected instruments to assure availability of key climate data sets, operational missions to ensure sustained land imaging provided by the Landsat system, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Some examples are the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR), Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), ICESat-2, SAGE III on ISS, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO), Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS), ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar missions. An overview of plans and current status will be presented.

The NASA Earth Science Program and Small Satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neeck, Steven P.

2015-01-01

Earth's changing environment impacts every aspect of life on our planet and climate change has profound implications on society. Studying Earth as a single complex system is essential to understanding the causes and consequences of climate change and other global environmental concerns. NASA's Earth Science Division (ESD) shapes an interdisciplinary view of Earth, exploring interactions among the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets, land surface interior, and life itself. This enables scientists to measure global and climate changes and to inform decisions by Government, other organizations, and people in the United States and around the world. The data collected and results generated are accessible to other agencies and organizations to improve the products and services they provide, including air quality indices, disaster prediction and response, agricultural yield projections, and aviation safety. ESD's Flight Program provides the spacebased observing systems and supporting infrastructure for mission operations and scientific data processing and distribution that support NASA's Earth science research and modeling activities. The Flight Program currently has 21 operating Earth observing space missions, including the recently launched Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, and the International Space Station (ISS) RapidSCAT and Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS) instruments. The ESD has 22 more missions and instruments planned for launch over the next decade. These include first and second tier missions from the 2007 Earth Science Decadal Survey, Climate Continuity missions to assure availability of key climate data sets, and small-sized competitively selected orbital missions and instrument missions of opportunity belonging to the Earth Venture (EV) Program. Small satellites (500 kg or less) are critical contributors to these current and future satellite missions. Some examples are the aforementioned Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow On (GRACE FO), and the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) microsatellite constellation. Small satellites also support ESD in space validation and risk reduction of enabling technologies (components and systems). The status of the ESD Flight Program and the role of small satellites will be discussed.

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

The effects of climate change on heating energy consumption of office buildings in different climate zones in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, Fanchao; Li, Mingcai; Cao, Jingfu; Li, Ji; Xiong, Mingming; Feng, Xiaomei; Ren, Guoyu

2017-06-01

Climate plays an important role in heating energy consumption owing to the direct relationship between space heating and changes in meteorological conditions. To quantify the impact, the Transient System Simulation Program software was used to simulate the heating loads of office buildings in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, representing three major climate zones (i.e., severe cold, cold, and hot summer and cold winter climate zones) in China during 1961-2010. Stepwise multiple linear regression was performed to determine the key climatic parameters influencing heating energy consumption. The results showed that dry bulb temperature (DBT) is the dominant climatic parameter affecting building heating loads in all three climate zones across China during the heating period at daily, monthly, and yearly scales (R 2 ≥ 0.86). With the continuous warming climate in winter over the past 50 years, heating loads decreased by 14.2, 7.2, and 7.1 W/m2 in Harbin, Tianjin, and Shanghai, respectively, indicating that the decreasing rate is more apparent in severe cold climate zone. When the DBT increases by 1 °C, the heating loads decrease by 253.1 W/m2 in Harbin, 177.2 W/m2 in Tianjin, and 126.4 W/m2 in Shanghai. These results suggest that the heating energy consumption can be well predicted by the regression models at different temporal scales in different climate conditions owing to the high determination coefficients. In addition, a greater decrease in heating energy consumption in northern severe cold and cold climate zones may efficiently promote the energy saving in these areas with high energy consumption for heating. Particularly, the likely future increase in temperatures should be considered in improving building energy efficiency.

Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

2017-12-01

Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

Increasing human dominance of tropical forests.

PubMed

Lewis, Simon L; Edwards, David P; Galbraith, David

2015-08-21

Tropical forests house over half of Earth's biodiversity and are an important influence on the climate system. These forests are experiencing escalating human influence, altering their health and the provision of important ecosystem functions and services. Impacts started with hunting and millennia-old megafaunal extinctions (phase I), continuing via low-intensity shifting cultivation (phase II), to today's global integration, dominated by intensive permanent agriculture, industrial logging, and attendant fires and fragmentation (phase III). Such ongoing pressures, together with an intensification of global environmental change, may severely degrade forests in the future (phase IV, global simplification) unless new "development without destruction" pathways are established alongside climate change-resilient landscape designs. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

Evaluating NASA S-NPP continuity cloud products for climate research using CALIPSO, CATS and Level-3 analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holz, R.; Platnick, S. E.; Meyer, K.; Frey, R.; Wind, G.; Ackerman, S. A.; Heidinger, A. K.; Botambekov, D.; Yorks, J. E.; McGill, M. J.

2016-12-01

The launch of VIIRS and CrIS on Suomi NPP in the fall of 2011 introduced the next generation of U.S. operational polar orbiting environmental observations. Similar to MODIS, VIIRS provides visible and IR observations at moderate spatial resolution and has a 1:30 pm equatorial crossing time consistent with the MODIS on Aqua platform. However unlike MODIS, VIIRS lacks water vapor and CO2 absorbing channels that are used by the MODIS cloud algorithms for both cloud detection and to retrieve cloud top height and cloud emissivity for ice clouds. Given the different spectral and spatial characteristics of VIIRS, we seek to understand the extent to which the 15-year MODIS climate record can be continued with VIIRS/CrIS observations while maintaining consistent sensitivities across the observational systems. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of the latest version of the NASA funded cloud retrieval algorithms being developed for climate research. We will present collocated inter-comparisons between the imagers (VIIRS and MODIS Aqua) with CALIPSO and Cloud Aerosol Transport System (CATS) lidar observations as well as long term statistics based on a new Level-3 (L3) product being developed as part the project. The CALIPSO inter-comparisons will focus on cloud detection (cloud mask) with a focus on the impact of recent modifications to the cloud mask and how these changes impact the global statistics. For the first time we will provide inter-comparisons between two different cloud lidar systems (CALIOP and CATS) and investigate how the different sensitivities of the lidars impact the cloud mask and cloud comparisons. Using CALIPSO and CATS as the reference, and applying the same algorithms to VIIRS and MODIS, we will discuss the consistency between products from both imagers. The L3 analysis will focus on the regional and seasonal consistency between the suite of MODIS and VIIRS continuity cloud products. Do systematic biases remains when using consistent algorithms but applied to different observations (MODIS or VIIRS)?

Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

PubMed

Logan, Jesse A; MacFarlane, William W; Willcox, Louisa

2010-06-01

Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

Energy in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Cao, L.; Hoffert, M.

2012-12-01

Human interference in Earth's natural systems is fueled by ever-increasing consumption of fossil energy. The energy we consume has enabled exponential growth of human population and economic wealth by expanding access to basic goods and services such as food, medicine, light, sanitation and refrigeration, as well as more advanced technologies such as transport and communication. In turn, population growth and economic development drive demand for even more energy. By 2050, it is expected that global energy demand will double to more than 30 TW. Unfortunately, the modern energy system is largely dependent on fossil fuels, and the CO2 released by burning of these fuels is the primary cause of anthropogenic climate change. As human civilization has expanded, primary energy sources have become progressively less carbon intensive, transitioning from the use of unsustainably harvested biomass to coal, oil and then natural gas. However, tremendous growth in the quantity of energy energy consumption in the industrial era has caused rapid growth of CO2 emissions. Limiting these emissions to avoid the more severe impacts of climate change while also meeting future demand for energy will require continuing the process of decarbonization by making a planetary-scale transition to largely carbon-emission-free energy technologies. In 2004, Pacala and Socolow proposed that such a transition could be achieved by stabilizing emissions at then-current levels for 50 years and then decreasing emissions by 2% per year afterward. They divided the task of stabilization into "wedges" that would grow linearly from zero to 1 gigatonne of carbon emissions avoided per year (GtC/y; 1 Gt = 10^12 kg) over 50 years, and asserted that deploying 7 wedges offset the growth of emissions and put us on a trajectory to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at 500 ppm if emissions decreased sharply in the second half of the 21st century. However, in light of the growth of emissions since 2004, new carbon-climate model simulations suggest that stabilizing current emissions for 50 years is no longer consistent with either an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 500 ppm nor global temperature increases below 2°C. Thus, if "solving the carbon-climate problem for the next 50 years" means meeting these climate targets, then solving the climate problem means not just stabilizing but substantially reducing CO2 emissions over the next 50 years, ultimately to near zero. And such large reductions in annual emissions will entail many more than 7 wedges. Depending on whether or not historical rates of decarbonization continue, a phase-out of emissions over 50 years would require between 19 and 31 wedges, beyond the wedges that may already be included in the baseline scenario. This level of mitigation will require affordable carbon-free energy systems to be deployed at the scale of tens of terawatts. Any hope for such fundamental transformation of the global energy system depends upon coordinated efforts to innovate, plan, and deploy new transportation and energy systems that can provide affordable energy at scale without emitting CO2 to the atmosphere. Lacking such efforts, the climate of the Anthropocene will come to resemble that of the Cretaceous.

Climate Change and Fish Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Paul P. S.; Lassa, Jonatan; Caballero-Anthony, Mely

Human consumption of fish has been trending upwards in the past decades and this is projected to continue. The main sources of fish are from wild fisheries (marine and freshwater) and aquaculture. Climate change is anticipated to affect the availability of fish through its effect on these two sources as well as on supply chain processes such as storage, transport, processing and retail. Climate change is known to result in warmer and more acid oceans. Ocean acidification due to higher CO2 concentration levels at sea modifies the distribution of phytoplankton and zooplankton to affect wild, capture fisheries. Higher temperature causes warm-water coral reefs to respond with species replacement and bleaching, leading to coral cover loss and habitat loss. Global changes in climatic systems may also cause fish invasion, extinction and turnover. While this may be catastrophic for small scale fish farming in poor tropical communities, there are also potential effects on animal protein supply shifts at local and global scales with food security consequences. This paper discusses the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the Asian Pacific region, with special emphasis on Southeast Asia. The key question to be addressed is “What are the impacts of global climate change on global fish harvests and what does it mean to the availability of fish?”

Earth-System Scales of Biodiversity Variability in Shallow Continental Margin Seafloor Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffitt, S. E.; White, S. M.; Hill, T. M.; Kennett, J.

2015-12-01

High-resolution paleoceanographic sedimentary sequences allow for the description of ecosystem sensitivity to earth-system scales of climate and oceanographic change. Such archives from Santa Barbara Basin, California record the ecological consequences to seafloor ecosystems of climate-forced shifts in the California Current Oxygen Minimum Zone (OMZ). Here we use core MV0508-20JPC dated to 735,000±5,000 years ago (Marine Isotope Stage 18) as a "floating window" of millennial-scale ecological variability. For this investigation, previously published archives of planktonic δ18O (Globigerina bulloides) record stadial and interstadial oscillations in surface ocean temperature. Core MV0508-20JPC is an intermittently laminated archive, strongly influenced by the California Current OMZ, with continuously preserved benthic foraminifera and discontinuously preserved micro-invertebrates, including ophiuroids, echinoderms, ostracods, gastropods, bivalves and scaphopods. Multivariate statistical approaches, such as ordinations and cluster analyses, describe climate-driven changes in both foraminiferal and micro-invertebrate assemblages. Statistical ordinations illustrate that the shallow continental margin seafloor underwent predictable phase-shifts in oxygenation and biodiversity across stadial and interstadial events. A narrow suite of severely hypoxic taxa characterized foraminiferal communities from laminated intervals, including Bolivina tumida, Globobulimina spp., and Nonionella stella. Foraminiferal communities from bioturbated intervals are diverse and >60% similar to each other, and they are associated with echinoderm, ostracod and mollusc fossils. As with climate shifts in the latest Quaternary, there is a sensitive benthic ecosystem response in mid-Pleistocene continental margins to climatically related changes in OMZ strength.

Prospects of the New Science and Outreach Network Baltic Earth with Results of the Second Climate Change Assessment for the Baltic Sea Region (BACC II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckermann, M.; Von Storch, H.; Omstedt, A. T.; Meier, M.; Rutgersson, A.

2014-12-01

The Baltic Sea region in Northern Europe spans different climate and population zones, from a temperate, highly populated, industrialized south with intensive agriculture to a boreal, rural north. It represents an old cultural landscape, and the Baltic Sea itself is among the most intensively studied sea areas of the world. Baltic Earth is the new Earth system research network for the Baltic Sea region. It is the successor to BALTEX, which was terminated in June 2013 after 20 years and two successful phases. Baltic Earth stands for the vision to achieve an improved Earth system understanding of the Baltic Sea region. This means that the research disciplines of BALTEX continue to be relevant, i.e. atmospheric and climate sciences, hydrology, oceanography and biogeochemistry, but a more holistic view of the Earth system encompassing processes in the atmosphere, on land and in the sea as well as in the anthroposphere shall gain in importance in Baltic Earth. Specific grand research challenges have been formulated, representing interdisciplinary research questions to be tackled in the coming years. A major means will be scientific assessments of particular research topics by expert groups, similar to the BACC approach, which shall help to identify knowledge gaps and develop research strategies. A major outcome of Baltic Earth will be the update of the BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin (BACC II). This new study after 5 years finds the results of BACC I still valid. Climate change can be detected at the regional scale but attribution is still weak. The effect of changing atmospheric aerosol loads and land use change is largely unknown so far and needs further attention in the coming years. For the observed changes in biogeochemical and ecological systems, multiple drivers are at work of which climate change is one. Their relative importance still needs to be evaluated. When addressing climate change impacts on e.g. forestry, agriculture, urban complexes and the marine and terrestrial environment in the Baltic Sea basin, a broad perspective is needed which considers not only climate change but also other significant factors such as emission changes, demographic, economic as well as land-use changes.

Application of open source standards and technologies in the http://climate4impact.eu/ portal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia

2015-04-01

This presentation will demonstrate how to calculate and visualize the climate indice SU (number of summer days) on the climate4impact portal. The following topics will be covered during the demonstration: - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the Earth System Grid Fedeation (ESGF) data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Processing using Web Processing Services (WPS): Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 ICCLIM. - Visualization using Web Map Services (WMS): Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at http://climate4impact.eu/ The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/ICCLIM on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Snowfall less sensitive to warming in Karakoram than in Himalayas due to a unique seasonal cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C.D.

2014-01-01

The high mountains of Asia, including the Karakoram, Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, combine to form a region of perplexing hydroclimate changes. Glaciers have exhibited mass stability or even expansion in the Karakoram region1, 2, 3, contrasting with glacial mass loss across the nearby Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau1, 4, a pattern that has been termed the Karakoram anomaly. However, the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may have influenced glacial change. Here we compare a set of high-resolution climate model simulations from 1861 to 2100 with the latest available observations to focus on the distinct seasonal cycles and resulting climate change signatures of Asia’s high-mountain ranges. We find that the Karakoram seasonal cycle is dominated by non-monsoonal winter precipitation, which uniquely protects it from reductions in annual snowfall under climate warming over the twenty-first century. The simulations show that climate change signals are detectable only with long and continuous records, and at specific elevations. Our findings suggest a meteorological mechanism for regional differences in the glacier response to climate warming.

Climate Education at the University of Hamburg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

2010-05-01

The new graduate School of Integrated Climate Sciences (www.sicss.de) at the KlimaCampus of the University of Hamburg was opened at October 20, 2009 and includes a 2-yr MSc (120 ECTS, 30 compulsory, 90 eligible) and 3-yr doctoral program (12 ECTS). About 40 students were enrolled in early 2010. The interdisciplinary MSc program is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. These disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. The graduate school is guiding pupils and BSc students with competence in maths and physics on how to become a climate expert. Acquisition is done internationally at fairs, uni days and dircectly at schools and intuitions for higher education. BSc degree in the disciplines listed above is set for positive application. Climate experts are needed for both research and the professional world outside the university and research institutions. In accordance, connection within and outside the university are continuously explored and soft skills for the communication to politics and the public's are included in the MSc and PhD curricula. Since the graduate school was established within the cluster of excellence ‘Integrated Climate Analysis and Predication' (www.clisap.de), this school represents a prototype for graduate programs at the University of Hamburg. Advantages and limitations of this Climate System School concept will be discussed.

The physics of Martian weather and climate: a review.

PubMed

Read, P L; Lewis, S R; Mulholland, D P

2015-12-01

The planet Mars hosts an atmosphere that is perhaps the closest in terms of its meteorology and climate to that of the Earth. But Mars differs from Earth in its greater distance from the Sun, its smaller size, its lack of liquid oceans and its thinner atmosphere, composed mainly of CO(2). These factors give Mars a rather different climate to that of the Earth. In this article we review various aspects of the martian climate system from a physicist's viewpoint, focusing on the processes that control the martian environment and comparing these with corresponding processes on Earth. These include the radiative and thermodynamical processes that determine the surface temperature and vertical structure of the atmosphere, the fluid dynamics of its atmospheric motions, and the key cycles of mineral dust and volatile transport. In many ways, the climate of Mars is as complicated and diverse as that of the Earth, with complex nonlinear feedbacks that affect its response to variations in external forcing. Recent work has shown that the martian climate is anything but static, but is almost certainly in a continual state of transient response to slowly varying insolation associated with cyclic variations in its orbit and rotation. We conclude with a discussion of the physical processes underlying these long- term climate variations on Mars, and an overview of some of the most intriguing outstanding problems that should be a focus for future observational and theoretical studies.

Management of climatic heat stress risk in construction: a review of practices, methodologies, and future research.

PubMed

Rowlinson, Steve; Yunyanjia, Andrea; Li, Baizhan; Chuanjingju, Carrie

2014-05-01

Climatic heat stress leads to accidents on construction sites brought about by a range of human factors emanating from heat induced illness, and fatigue leading to impaired capability, physical and mental. It is an occupational characteristic of construction work in many climates and the authors take the approach of re-engineering the whole safety management system rather than focusing on incremental improvement, which is current management practice in the construction industry. From a scientific viewpoint, climatic heat stress is determined by six key factors: (1) air temperature, (2) humidity, (3) radiant heat, and (4) wind speed indicating the environment, (5) metabolic heat generated by physical activities, and (6) "clothing effect" that moderates the heat exchange between the body and the environment. By making use of existing heat stress indices and heat stress management processes, heat stress risk on construction sites can be managed in three ways: (1) control of environmental heat stress exposure through use of an action-triggering threshold system, (2) control of continuous work time (CWT, referred by maximum allowable exposure duration) with mandatory work-rest regimens, and (3) enabling self-paced working through empowerment of employees. Existing heat stress practices and methodologies are critically reviewed and the authors propose a three-level methodology for an action-triggering, localized, simplified threshold system to facilitate effective decisions by frontline supervisors. The authors point out the need for "regional based" heat stress management practices that reflect unique climatic conditions, working practices and acclimatization propensity by local workers indifferent geographic regions. The authors set out the case for regional, rather than international, standards that account for this uniqueness and which are derived from site-based rather than laboratory-based research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

SCOSTEP: Understanding the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

The international solar-terrestrial physics community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). The CAWSES program is the current major scientific program of SCOSTEP that will continue until the end of the year 2013. The CAWSES program has brought scientists from all over the world together to tackle the scientific issues behind the Sun-Earth connected system and explore ways of helping the human society. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and other SCOSTEP activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Evidence of rapid Cenozoic uplift of the shoulder escarpment of the Cenozoic West Antarctic rift system and a speculation on possible climate forcing

USGS Publications Warehouse

Behrendt, John C.; Cooper, A.

1991-01-01

The Cenozoic West Antarctic rift system, characterized by Cenozoic bimodal alkalic volcanic rocks, extends over a largely ice-covered area, from the Ross Sea nearly to the Bellingshausen Sea. Various lines of evidence lead to the following interpretation: the transantarctic Mountains part of the rift shoulder (and probably the entire shoulder) has been rising since about 60 Ma, at episodic rates of ~1 km/m.y., most recently since mid-Pliocene Time, rather than continuously at the mean rate of 100 m/m.y. Uplift rates vary along the scarp, which is cut by transverse faults. It is speculated that this uplift may have climatically forced the advance of the Antarctic ice sheet since the most recent warm period. A possible synergistic relation is suggested between episodic tectonism, mountain uplift, and volcanism in the Cenozoic West Antarctic rift system and waxing and waning of the Antarctic ice sheet beginning about earliest Oligocene time. 

Ecosystem productivity and the impact of climate change

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Martha Nungesser

2000-01-01

Earlier analyses of the supply and demand of timber assumed the continuation of historical climate and thus, did not explicitly incorporate factors such as temperature or precipitation into the projections of timber growth. Forests are adapted to local climates and changes in these climates are likely to impact future forest growth and timber outputs. Within the...

Enhancing Famine Early Warning Systems with Improved Forecasts, Satellite Observations and Hydrologic Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J.; Thiaw, W. M.; Hoell, A.; Korecha, D.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.; Arsenault, K. R.; Magadzire, T.; Novella, N.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Robjohn, M.; Pomposi, C.; Galu, G.; Rowland, J.; Budde, M. E.; Landsfeld, M. F.; Harrison, L.; Davenport, F.; Husak, G. J.; Endalkachew, E.

2017-12-01

Drought early warning science, in support of famine prevention, is a rapidly advancing field that is helping to save lives and livelihoods. In 2015-2017, a series of extreme droughts afflicted Ethiopia, Southern Africa, Eastern Africa in OND and Eastern Africa in MAM, pushing more than 50 million people into severe food insecurity. Improved drought forecasts and monitoring tools, however, helped motivate and target large and effective humanitarian responses. Here we describe new science being developed by a long-established early warning system - the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). FEWS NET is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. FEWS NET research is advancing rapidly on several fronts, providing better climate forecasts and more effective drought monitoring tools that are being used to support enhanced famine early warning. We explore the philosophy and science underlying these successes, suggesting that a modal view of climate change can support enhanced seasonal prediction. Under this modal perspective, warming of the tropical oceans may interact with natural modes of variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, to enhance Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature gradients during both El Niño and La Niña-like climate states. Using empirical data and climate change simulations, we suggest that a sequence of droughts may commence in northern Ethiopia and Southern Africa with the advent of a moderate-to-strong El Niño, and then continue with La Niña/West Pacific related droughts in equatorial eastern East Africa. Scientifically, we show that a new hybrid statistical-dynamic precipitation forecast system, the FEWS NET Integrated Forecast System (FIFS), based on reformulations of the Global Ensemble Forecast System weather forecasts and National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal climate predictions, can effectively anticipate recent East and Southern African drought events. Using cross-validation, we evaluate FIFS' skill and compare it to the NMME and the International Research Institute forecasts. Our study concludes with an overview of the satellite observations provided by FEWS NET partners at NOAA, NASA, USGS, and UC Santa Barbara, and the assimilation of these products within the FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS).

Patterns of glacial-interglacial vegetation and climate variability in eastern South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Lydie; Caley, Thibaut; Malaizé, Bruno; Giraudeau, Jacques

2010-05-01

Vegetation is an integrated part of the earth system and our understanding needs records of its glacial-interglacial variability. Although the data coverage for South Africa is slightly better than for some other parts of Africa, there are only very few records that allow us a glimpse of the vegetation history and development through one or more late Quaternary climate cycles. The existing evidence is fragmentary and in some cases contradictory. Marine sediments can offer here continuous sequences that cover large periods of time and provide a record of a signal that integrates rather large continental regions. Core MD96-2048 has been cored off the Limpopo River mouth at 26°10'S 34°01'E in 660 m water depth. This area is under the double influence of continental discharge and Agulhas current water advection. The sedimentation is slow and continuous. The upper 5 meter (down till 250 ka) have been analysed for pollen and spores at millennial resolution. The terrestrial pollen assemblages indicate that during interglacials the vegetation of eastern South Africa and southern Mozambique largely consisted of evergreen and deciduous forests with an increase of dry deciduous forest and open woodland during interglacial optima. During glacials open mountainous shrubland extended. The pattern strongly suggests a shifting of altitudinal vegetation belts in the mountains primarily depending on temperature, although the decline of forested areas during glacial times might also be the effect of low atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. This pattern in eastern South Africa differs from that suggested for western South Africa, where extension of the winter rain climate seems likely, and corroborates findings of increased C4 vegetation during the Glacial of eastern South Africa. The spread of dry deciduous forest and open woodland suggests a hot and dry climate during interglacial optima. The vegetation and climate of eastern South Africa seems to follow a mid to high latitude rhythm, in which the glacial-interglacial contrast is more important than the precessional forced monsoon system of tropical Africa.

Interglacial Greenland aerosol deposition: comparison of continuous high resolution chemical ice core records from the Eemian and Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gfeller, Gideon; Bigler, Matthias; Schüpbach, Simon; Mini, Olivia; Leuenberger, Daiana; Fischer, Hubertus

2014-05-01

Earth's climate system has been oscillating over the last million years between cold glacials and warm interglacials, leaving the imprints of their climate states in form of isotopes variations and chemical impurities in polar ice caps. In the course of the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) project, the NEEM ice core has been entirely analysed in very high depth resolution with a Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) system for the concentrations of chemical aerosol tracers in the ice. Only in the brittle ice zone (600-1100 m depth equivalent to the time interval 3000-8000 years before present) most of the ice had to be discarded due to multifractured core material. Based on the unique reconstructed age scale to unfold the stratigraphically disturbed part from about 2200 m depth downwards (NEEM community members, Nature, 2013), we are able to present the first Greenland chemistry record over the entire last interglacial, the so called Eemian period (about 128'000 to 115'000 years ago). As the Eemian is believed to have been 4 to 8 degrees C warmer than the modern climate, it can be used as an analogue for our present warming climate and, thus, contributes to a better understanding of processes causing natural variations. By means of the chemistry records we are able to assess the natural variability of Greenland Eemian climate and gain insight in its biogeochemical state. Here, short-term variability as well as long term trends of soluble chemical impurities in the Eemian are investigated and compared with those in the Holocene. Changes of organic processes in soils and biomass burning for example are assessed through soluble ammonium and nitrate concentrations. In comparison to the Holocene, ammonium concentrations were about 25% higher during the Eemian. Nitrate, on the other hand, shows about 25% lower concentrations. Sodium concentrations, reflecting changes in sea salt aerosol, are about 35% lower during the Eemian than during the Holocene. Calcium, generally regarded as a long range transport proxy, shows similar concentration during both periods.

Energy-Efficient Management of Mechanical Ventilation and Relative Humidity in Hot-Humid Climates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Withers, Jr., Charles R.

2016-12-01

In hot and humid climates, it is challenging to energy-efficiently maintain indoor RH at acceptable levels while simultaneously providing required ventilation, particularly in high performance low cooling load homes. The fundamental problem with solely relying on fixed capacity central cooling systems to manage moisture during low sensible load periods is that they are oversized for cooler periods of the year despite being 'properly sized' for a very hot design cooling day. The primary goals of this project were to determine the impact of supplementing a central space conditioning system with 1) a supplemental dehumidifier and 2) a ductless mini-split onmore » seasonal energy use and summer peak power use as well as the impact on thermal distribution and humidity control inside a completely furnished lab home that was continuously ventilated in accordance with ASHRAE 62.2-2013.« less

Building America Case Study: Energy Efficient Management of Mechanical Ventilation and Relative Humidity in Hot-Humid Climates, Cocoa, Florida

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2017-01-01

In hot and humid climates, it is challenging to energy-efficiently maintain indoor RH at acceptable levels while simultaneously providing required ventilation, particularly in high performance low cooling load homes. The fundamental problem with solely relying on fixed capacity central cooling systems to manage moisture during low sensible load periods is that they are oversized for cooler periods of the year despite being 'properly sized' for a very hot design cooling day. The primary goals of this project were to determine the impact of supplementing a central space conditioning system with 1) a supplemental dehumidifier and 2) a ductless mini-split onmore » seasonal energy use and summer peak power use as well as the impact on thermal distribution and humidity control inside a completely furnished lab home that was continuously ventilated in accordance with ASHRAE 62.2-2013.« less

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

Response of River Discharge to Changing Climate Over the Past Millennium in the Upper Mackenzie Basin: Implications for Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, B. B.; Hall, R. I.; Edwards, T. W.; Jarvis, S. R.; Sinnatamby, R. N.; Yi, Y.; Johnston, J. W.

2009-05-01

Runoff generated from high elevations is the primary source of freshwater for western North America, yet this critical resource is managed on the basis of short instrumental records that encompass an insufficient range of climatic conditions. Like other streams that drain this part of the continent and flow across the northern Great Plains, where seasonal and extended intervals of water deficit are a natural element of the landscape, the Peace and Athabasca rivers provide water that is crucial for societal needs. Climate variability and rapidly increasing industrial development are, however, raising concerns over the future availability of water resources for continued economic growth in these watersheds and to maintain the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, including the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD). This is particularly acute for the Athabasca River because the Alberta oil sands industry remains dependent on its water for bitumen extraction. Here we report the effects of climate change over the past 1000 years on river discharge in the upper Mackenzie River system based on paleoenvironmental information from the PAD and Lake Athabasca. The delta landscape responds to hydroclimatic changes with marked variability, capturing systematic changes in ice-jam flood frequency and perched basin water balance. Lake Athabasca level appears to directly monitor overall water availability with the highest levels occurring in concert with maximum glacier extent during the Little Ice Age, and the lowest during the 11th century prior to medieval glacier expansion. Recent climate-driven hydrological change appears to be on a trajectory to even lower levels as high-elevation snow and glacier meltwater contributions both continue to decline. The temporal perspective offered by these paleohydrological reconstructions indicates that climatic changes over the past millennium have led to characteristic responses in the quantity and seasonality of streamflow generated from the hydrographic apex of North America. For water resource managers, a key feature that emerges from these results is that the hydrograph of the 21st century may be evolving towards conditions unprecedented over the past 1000 years, extending beyond the 11th century when reduced glacier meltwater contributions were partly compensated by abundant snowmelt runoff. Continuing reduction in both peak and total discharge clearly underscores the need for stringent allocation of freshwater resources in these watersheds.

Environmental literacy framework with a focus on climate change (ELF): a framework and resources for teaching climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.; Blythe, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Fischbein, S.; Johnson, K.; Kontar, Y.; Rack, F. R.; Kulhanek, D. K.; Pennycook, J.; Reed, J.; Youngman, B.; Reeves, M.; Thomas, R.

2010-12-01

The challenges of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences present a daunting task, but one that is recognized in the science community as urgent and essential. ANDRILL's (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) international network of scientists, engineers, technicians and educators work together to convey a deeper understanding of current geoscience research as well as the process of science to non-technical audiences. One roadblock for educators who recognize the need to teach climate change has been the lack of a comprehensive, integrated set of resources and activities that are related to the National Science Education Standards. Pieces of the climate change puzzle can be found in the excellent work of the groups of science and education professionals who wrote the Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science, Earth Science Literacy Principles: The Big Ideas and Supporting Concepts of Earth Science, and Essential Principals and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, but teachers have precious little time to search out the climate change goals and objectives in those frameworks and then find the resources to teach them. Through NOAA funding, ANDRILL has created a new framework, The Environmental Literacy Framework with a Focus on Climate Change (ELF), drawing on the works of the aforementioned groups, and promoting an Earth Systems approach to teaching climate change through five units: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Geosphere, Hydrosphere/Cryosphere, and Energy as the driver of interactions within and between the “spheres.” Each key concept in the framework has a hands-on, inquiry activity and matching NOAA resources for teaching the objectives. In its present form, we present a ‘road map’ for teaching climate change and a set of resources intended to continue to evolve over time.

Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

2016-07-01

Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

A Study of the Perceived Relationships between the Leadership Style of Elementary Administrators and School Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ferree, Stephanie A.

2013-01-01

As national and state demands continue to mandate school improvement, leaders in schools have continued to seek answers from leadership theory and research to improve and sustain the culture and climate that has been created in order for diverse populations to meet academic excellence. The purpose of this research was to determine the relationship…

"No future without a past" or "History will teach us nothing"?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeebe, R. E.

2012-12-01

.In 1947, Harold Clayton Urey published a landmark paper on the thermodynamic properties of isotopic substances. With his work, Urey paved the way for the reconstruction of paleotemperatures based on small differences in the distribution of stable isotopes in compounds such as sedimentary calcium carbonate. Cesare Emiliani (a student of Urey) followed in Urey's footsteps and in 1955 provided temperature reconstructions over several glacial cycles based on stable isotopes - as Urey had proposed. Emiliani is today considered the father of Paleoceanography. Over the past 60 years, the field has grown immensely and has provided unique and fundamental knowledge about the functioning of the Earth system and Earth's climatic history. In this presentation, I will explain why studying the climate of the past is fun and important. I will make the case that studying past climate events is indispensable to predicting future climate change resulting from human activities ("No future without a past"). If mankind continues on the current path of carbon emissions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will reach levels probably unprecedented during the past 30 million years. The rate of anthropogenic carbon input is likely unprecedented during the past 56 million years. Recent evidence from paleoclimate archives reveals dramatic and long-lived consequences for Earth's climate and environment following large and rapid carbon release into the ocean-atmosphere system. While the evidence for the close link between rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and past climate change is unequivocal, such lessons from the past seem to be largely ignored at the moment ("History will teach us nothing"?). Currently, there is no indication that mankind will start reducing carbon emissions any time soon. In 1973, Emiliani warned: "If the present climatic balance is not maintained, we may soon be confronted with either a runaway glaciation or runaway deglaciation." The past forty years of climate research have shown that the latter scenario is overwhelmingly more likely.

NCSE's 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy, and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Levine, Ellen

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) held its 15th National Conference and Global Forum on Science, Policy and the Environment: Energy and Climate Change, on January 27-29, 2015, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Crystal City, VA. The National Conference: Energy and Climate Change developed and advanced partnerships that focused on transitioning the world to a new “low carbon” and “climate resilient” energy system. It emphasized advancing research and technology, putting ideas into action, and moving forward on policy and practice. More than 900 participants from the scientific research, policy and governance, business and civil society, and educationmore » communities attended. The Conference was organized around four themes: (1) a new energy system (including energy infrastructure, technologies and efficiencies, changes in distribution of energy sources, and low carbon transportation); (2) energy, climate and sustainable development; (3) financing and markets; and (4) achieving progress (including ideas for the 21st Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The program featured six keynote presentations, six plenary sessions, 41 symposia and 20 workshops. Conference participants were involved in the 20 workshops, each on a specific energy and climate-related issue. The workshops were designed as interactive sessions, with each workshop generating 10-12 recommendations on the topic. The recommendations were prepared in the final conference report, were disseminated nationally, and continue to be available for public use. The conference also featured an exhibition and poster sessions. The National Conference on Energy and Climate Change addressed a wide range of issues specific to the U.S. Department of Energy’s programs; involved DOE’s scientists and program managers in sessions and workshops; and reached out to a broad array of DOE stakeholders.« less

2016 Earth System Grid Federation Annual Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, Dean N.

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) experienced a major setback in June 2015, when it experienced a security incident that brought all systems to a halt for more than half a year. However, federation developers and management committee members turned the incident into an opportunity to dramatically upgrade the system security and functionality and to develop planning and policy documents to guide ESGF evolution and success. Moreover, despite the incident, ESGF developer working teams continue to make strong and significant progress on various enhancement projects that will help ensure ESGF can meet the needs of the climate community in themore » coming years.« less

Patterns of precipitation: Fine-scale rain dynamics in the South of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, Sarah

2010-05-01

The consensus in the climate change community is that one of the (many) effects of climate change will be that the nature of rain events will change, and in all likelihood, they will become more extreme. Currently, most long-term rain rate data sets are hourly (or longer) rain accumulations, so investigating the rain events that occur for less than 0.01% (52.5 minutes) of a year is not possible. Rain datasets do exist with smaller temporal resolution, but these are either not continuous, or simply have not been in operation long enough to investigate any trends in climate change. The Chilbolton Observatory in the south of England is one of the world's most advanced meteorological radar experimental facilities, and is home to the world's largest fully steerable meteorological radar, the Chilbolton Advanced Meteorological Radar (CAMRa). It also hosts a wide range of meteorological and atmospheric sensing instruments, including cameras, lidars, radiometers and a wide selection of different types of rain gauges. The UK atmospheric science, hydrology and Earth Observation communities use the instruments located at Chilbolton to conduct research in weather, flooding and climate. This often involves observations of meteorological phenomena operating below the current resolution of (forecasting and climate) models and work on their effective parameterisation. The Chilbolton datasets contain a continuous drop counting rain gauge time series at 10 seconds integration time, spanning from January 2001 to the present. Though the length of the time series is not sufficient to confidently identify any effects of climate change, the time resolution is sufficient to investigate the differences in the extreme values of rain events over the nine years of the dataset, characterising the inter-annual and seasonal variability. Changes in the occurrence of different rain events have also been investigated by looking at event and inter-event durations to determine if there is any change in the relative number of stratiform and convective events over the time period. Knowledge of the fine scale variability of rain (both in the spatial and temporal domains) is important for the development of accurate models for small-scale forecasting, as well as models for the implementation and operation of rain affected systems, such as microwave radio communications and flood mitigation. As the rain gauge measurements made at Chilbolton will continue for the foreseeable future, these datasets will become increasingly valuable, as they provide a "ground-truth" that can be compared with the results of climate and other models.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

PubMed

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-02-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

PubMed Central

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-01-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

Human health impacts in a changing South African climate.

PubMed

Wright, C Y; Garland, R M; Norval, M; Vogel, C

2014-08-01

Climate change is projected to lead to warmer temperatures, especially in southern Africa, where the warming is predicted to be 2°C higher than the global increase. Given the high burden of disease already associated with environmental factors in this region, this temperature increase may lead to grave challenges for human health and quality of life. HIV/AIDS, poverty, food and water insecurity together with inequality and unemployment will further complicate the manner in which we will need to address the challenges of a changing climate. The health impacts are direct, such as increased temperatures leading to heat exhaustion, and indirect, such as likely increases in infectious diseases from contaminated water and changes in the distribution and/or magnitude of vector-borne diseases. The most effective measures for adapting to climate change to ensure healthy populations are to implement basic public health systems and services. These range from a continuous supply of clean water to adequate primary healthcare services. Support for required interventions is required not only from government, but also from healthcare professionals and communities. The need for disease surveillance, data capturing and more focused research is paramount.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests.

PubMed

Abatzoglou, John T; Williams, A Park

2016-10-18

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abatzoglou, John T.; Park Williams, A.

2016-10-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000-2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ˜55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984-2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.

NPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Predicted Sensor Performance Calibration and Preliminary Data Product Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Priestly, Kory; Smith, George L.; Thomas, Susan; Maddock, Suzanne L.

2009-01-01

Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS agreed in early 2008 to fly the final existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft for launch in 2010. Future opportunities for ERB CDR continuity consist of procuring an additional CERES Sensor with modest performance upgrades for flight on the NPOESS C1 spacecraft in 2013, followed by a new CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018 on the NPOESS C3 spacecraft. While science goals remain unchanged for the long-term ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood that the task of achieving these goals is more difficult for two reasons. The first is an increased understanding of the dynamics of the Earth/atmosphere system which demonstrates that rigorous separation of natural variability from anthropogenic change on decadal time scales requires higher accuracy and stability than originally envisioned. Secondly, future implementation scenarios involve less redundancy in flight hardware (1 vs. 2 orbits and operational sensors) resulting in higher risk of loss of continuity and reduced number of independent observations to characterize performance of individual sensors. Although EOS CERES CDR's realize a factor of 2 to 4 improvement in accuracy and stability over previous ERBE CDR's, future sensors will require an additional factor of 2 improvement to answer rigorously the science questions moving forward. Modest investments, defined through the CERES Science Team s 30-year operational history of the EOS CERES sensors, in onboard calibration hardware and pre-flight calibration and test program will ensure meeting these goals while reducing costs in re-processing scientific datasets. The CERES FM-5 pre-flight radiometric characterization program benefited from the 30-year operational experience of the CERES EOS sensors, as well as a stronger emphasis of radiometric characterization in the Statement of Work with the sensor provider. Improvements to the pre-flight program included increased spectral, spatial, and temporal sampling under vacuum conditions as well as additional tests to characterize the primary and transfer standards in the calibration facility. Future work will include collaboration with NIST to further enhance the understanding of the radiometric performance of this equipment prior to flight. The current effort summarizes these improvements to the CERES FM-5 pre-flight sensor characterization program, as well as modifications to inflight calibration procedures and operational tasking. In addition, an estimate of the impacts to the system level accuracy and traceability is presented.

Potential impact of climate change on groundwater resources in the Central Huai Luang Basin, Northeast Thailand.

PubMed

Pholkern, Kewaree; Saraphirom, Phayom; Srisuk, Kriengsak

2018-08-15

The Central Huai Luang Basin is one of the important rice producing areas of Udon Thani Province in Northeastern Thailand. The basin is underlain by the rock salt layers of the Maha Sarakham Formation and is the source of saline groundwater and soil salinity. The regional and local groundwater flow systems are the major mechanisms responsible for spreading saline groundwater and saline soils in this basin. Climate change may have an impact on groundwater recharge, on water table depth and the consequences of waterlogging, and on the distribution of soil salinity in this basin. Six future climate conditions from the SEACAM and CanESM2 models were downscaled to investigate the potential impact of future climate conditions on groundwater quantity and quality in this basin. The potential impact was investigated by using a set of numerical models, namely HELP3 and SEAWAT, to estimate the groundwater recharge and flow and the salt transport of groundwater simulation, respectively. The results revealed that within next 30years (2045), the future average annual temperature is projected to increase by 3.1°C and 2.2°C under SEACAM and CanESM2 models, respectively, while the future precipitation is projected to decrease by 20.85% under SEACAM and increase by 18.35% under the CanESM2. Groundwater recharge is projected to increase under the CanESM2 model and to slightly decrease under the SEACAM model. Moreover, for all future climate conditions, the depths of the groundwater water table are projected to continuously increase. The results showed the impact of climate change on salinity distribution for both the deep and shallow groundwater systems. The salinity distribution areas are projected to increase by about 8.08% and 56.92% in the deep and shallow groundwater systems, respectively. The waterlogging areas are also projected to expand by about 63.65% from the baseline period. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction

PubMed Central

Dunstone, Nick J.

2014-01-01

Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow-down in surface global warming. PMID:25157195

Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

2013-12-01

Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013) compared the proposed CLARREO advance in satellite absolute calibration for climate change records to an existing system for detecting decadal temperature change using infrared spectra from weather satellites. New results extend this to observational detection of cloud feedback which is the largest uncertainty in determining climate sensitivity and therefore the uncertainty in economic impacts. New results also include the use of multiple societal decision triggers. While CLARREO is used as an example, the value should be considered as relevant to a complete high accuracy climate observing system, as societal decisions are unlikely to be based on one or a few observations. The VOI is found to depend on the required confidence level, the trigger value at which we would abandon the BAU emissions path, the path to which we switch, and the date at which the new system is launched. The VOI of advanced climate observations in this decision context is the surfeit of NPV of averted damages, relative to the existing system. Over all it is in the order of tens of trillions of US dollars in Net Present Value. The results conclude that the economic value of advanced climate observing systems is dramatically larger than their cost, and argues for the continual enhancement of the SCC assessment process.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

2010-07-28

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Contributions to Strengthening Resilience and Sustainability for the East African Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budde, M. E.; Galu, G.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.

2014-12-01

The Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic Development (PREPARED) is a multi-organizational project aimed at mainstreaming climate-resilient development planning and program implementation into the East African Community (EAC). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has partnered with the PREPARED project to address three key development challenges for the EAC; 1) increasing resiliency to climate change, 2) managing trans-boundary freshwater biodiversity and conservation and 3) improving access to drinking water supply and sanitation services. USGS FEWS NET has been instrumental in the development of gridded climate data sets that are the fundamental building blocks for climate change adaptation studies in the region. Tools such as the Geospatial Climate Tool (GeoCLIM) have been developed to interpolate time-series grids of precipitation and temperature values from station observations and associated satellite imagery, elevation data, and other spatially continuous fields. The GeoCLIM tool also allows the identification of anomalies and assessments of both their frequency of occurrence and directional trends. A major effort has been put forth to build the capacities of local and regional institutions to use GeoCLIM to integrate their station data (which is not typically available to the public) into improved national and regional gridded climate data sets. In addition to the improvements and capacity building activities related to geospatial analysis tools, FEWS NET will assist in two other areas; 1) downscaling of climate change scenarios and 2) vulnerability impact assessments. FEWS NET will provide expertise in statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model output fields and work with regional institutions to assess results of other downscaling methods. Completion of a vulnerability impact assessment (VIA) involves the examination of sectoral consequences in identified climate "hot spots". FEWS NET will lead the VIA for the agriculture and food security sector, but will also provide key geospatial layers needed by multiple sectors in the areas of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Project implementation will strengthen regional coordination in policy-making, planning, and response to climate change issues.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig D.; Macalady, A.K.; Chenchouni, H.; Bachelet, D.; McDowell, N.; Vennetier, Michel; Kitzberger, T.; Rigling, A.; Breshears, D.D.; Hogg, E.H.(T.); Gonzalez, P.; Fensham, R.; Zhang, Z.; Castro, J.; Demidova, N.; Lim, J.-H.; Allard, G.; Running, S.W.; Semerci, A.; Cobb, N.

2010-01-01

Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world's forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

Tracking Middle Grades Climate Data to Inform School Change. REL West Research Digest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regional Educational Laboratory West, 2015

2015-01-01

A growing body of research shows that positive school climate is a key lever for students' academic and social development and success. This research digest shows how an alliance of California schools and districts, school climate experts, and state education agency personnel have teamed up to use school climate data to drive a continuous cycle of…

Climate change through an intersectional lens: gendered vulnerability and resilience in indigenous communities in the United States

Treesearch

Kirsten Vinyeta; Kyle Powys Whyte; Kathy Lynn

2015-01-01

The scientific and policy literature on climate change increasingly recognizes the vulnerabilities of indigenous communities and their capacities for resilience. The role of gender in defining how indigenous peoples experience climate change in the United States is a research area that deserves more attention. Advancing climate change threatens the continuance of many...

Education, Outreach, and Diversity Partnerships and Science Education Resources From the Center for Multi-scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, S. Q.; Randall, D.; Denning, S.; Jones, B.; Russell, R.; Gardiner, L.; Hatheway, B.; Johnson, R. M.; Drossman, H.; Pandya, R.; Swartz, D.; Lanting, J.; Pitot, L.

2007-12-01

The need for improving the representation of cloud processes in climate models has been one of the most important limitations of the reliability of climate-change simulations. The new National Science Foundation- funded Center for Multi-scale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes (CMMAP) at Colorado State University (CSU) is a major research program addressing this problem over the next five years through a revolutionary new approach to representing cloud processes on their native scales, including the cloud-scale interactions among the many physical and chemical processes that are active in cloud systems. At the end of its first year, CMMAP has established effective partnerships between scientists, students, and teachers to meet its goals to: (1) provide first-rate graduate education in atmospheric science; (2) recruit diverse undergraduates into graduate education and careers in climate science; and (3) develop, evaluate, and disseminate educational resources designed to inform K-12 students, teachers, and the general public about the nature of the climate system, global climate change, and career opportunities in climate science. This presentation will describe the partners, our challenges and successes, and measures of achievement involved in the integrated suite of programs launched in the first year. They include: (1) a new high school Colorado Climate Conference drawing prestigious climate scientists to speak to students, (2) a summer Weather and Climate Workshop at CSU and the National Center for Atmospheric Research introducing K-12 teachers to Earth system science and a rich toolkit of teaching materials, (3) a program from CSU's Little Shop of Physics reaching 50 schools and 20,000 K-12 students through the new "It's Up In the Air" program, (4) expanded content, imagery, and interactives on clouds, weather, climate, and modeling for students, teachers, and the public on The Windows to the Universe web site at University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), (5) mentoring programs engaging diverse undergraduate and graduate level students in CMMAP research through UCAR's Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science (SOARS) Program, and (6) after school activities about clouds, climate and weather for underrepresented middle school students at the Catamount Institute. CMMAP is also enabling Windows to the Universe to continue its commitment to translate all new web pages into Spanish. This presentation will explain how resources emerging from CMMAP can be accessed and used by the entire Earth and Ocean Science educational outreach community.

Continuity of Climate Data Records derived from Microwave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mears, C. A.; Wentz, F. J.; Brewer, M.; Meissner, T.; Ricciardulli, L.

2017-12-01

Remote Sensing Systems (www.remss.com) has been producing and distributing microwave climate data products from microwave imagers (SSMI, TMI, AMSR, WindSat, GMI, Aquarius, SMAP) over the global oceans since the launch of the first SSMI in 1987. Interest in these data products has been significant as researchers around the world have downloaded the approximate equivalent of 1 million satellite years of processed data. Users, including NASA, NOAA, US National Laboratories, US Navy, UK Met, ECMWF, JAXA, JMA, CMC, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as many hundreds of other agencies and universities routinely access these microwave data products. The quality of these data records has increased as more observations have become available and inter-calibration techniques have improved. The impending end of missions for WindSat, AMSR-2, and the remaining SSMIs will have significant impact on the quality and continuity of long term microwave climate data records. In addition to the problem of reduced numbers of observations, there is a real danger of losing overlapping observations. Simultaneous operation of satellites, especially when the observations are at similar local crossing times, provides a significant benefit in the effort to inter-calibrate satellites to yield accurate and stable long-term records. The end of WindSat and AMSR-2 will leave us without microwave SSTs in cold water, as there will be no microwave imagers with C-band channels. Microwave SSTs have a crucial advantage over IR SSTs, which is not able to measure SST in clouds or if aerosols are present. The gap in ocean wind vectors will be somewhat mitigated as the European ASCAT C-band scatterometer mission on MetOp is continuing. Nonetheless, the anticipated cease of several microwave satellite radiometers retrieving ocean winds in the coming years will lead to a significant gap in temporal coverage. Atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate are all important climate variables whose long-term records will inevitably degrade as the microwave imagery constellation fades.

JPSS-1 Data and the EOSDIS System: It's seamless

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, A.; Behnke, J.; Ho, E.

2017-12-01

The continuity of climate and environmental data is the key to the NASA Earth science program to develop a scientific understanding of Earth's system and its response to changes. NASA has made a long-term investment in processing, archiving and distributing Earth science data through the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The use of the EOSDIS infrastructure and services provides seamless integration of Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS-1) products as it does for the entire NASA Earth Science data collection. This continuity of measurements from all the missions is supported by the use of common data structures and standards in the generation of products and the subsequent services, tools and access to those products. Similar to EOS missions, 5 Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS) were established for SNPP: Land, Ocean, Atmosphere, Ozone, and Sounder along with NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and Ozone Mapper/Profiler Suite Limb systems now produce the NASA SNPP standard Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 products developed by the NASA science teams.

Flow and storage in groundwater systems.

PubMed

Alley, William M; Healy, Richard W; LaBaugh, James W; Reilly, Thomas E

2002-06-14

The dynamic nature of groundwater is not readily apparent, except where discharge is focused at springs or where recharge enters sinkholes. Yet groundwater flow and storage are continually changing in response to human and climatic stresses. Wise development of groundwater resources requires a more complete understanding of these changes in flow and storage and of their effects on the terrestrial environment and on numerous surface-water features and their biota.

Quantifying the role of National Forest system lands in providing surface drinking water supply for the Southern United States

Treesearch

Peter Caldwell; Corinne Muldoon; Chelcy Ford-Miniat; Erika Cohen; Suzanne Krieger; Ge Sun; Steven McNulty; Paul V. Bolstad

2014-01-01

Forests and water are inextricably linked, and people are dependent on forested lands to provide clean, reliable water supplies for drinking and to support local economies. These water supplies are at risk of degradation from a growing population, continued conversion of forests to other land uses, and climate change. Given the variety of threats to surface water, it...

The Great White Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1999-01-01

Satellite data have revealed overall decreases in the Arctic sea ice cover since the late 1970s, although with substantial interannual variability. The ice reductions are likely tied to an overall warming in the Arctic region over the same time period, although both the warming and the ice reductions could be connected to large-scale oscillations within the system. Should the ice reductions continue, consequences to the Arctic ecosystems and climate could be considerable.

Stratigraphic and Earth System approaches to defining the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steffen, Will; Leinfelder, Reinhold; Zalasiewicz, Jan; Waters, Colin N.; Williams, Mark; Summerhayes, Colin; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Cearreta, Alejandro; Crutzen, Paul; Edgeworth, Matt; Ellis, Erle C.; Fairchild, Ian J.; Galuszka, Agnieszka; Grinevald, Jacques; Haywood, Alan; Ivar do Sul, Juliana; Jeandel, Catherine; McNeill, J. R.; Odada, Eric; Oreskes, Naomi; Revkin, Andrew; Richter, Daniel deB.; Syvitski, James; Vidas, Davor; Wagreich, Michael; Wing, Scott L.; Wolfe, Alexander P.; Schellnhuber, H. J.

2016-08-01

Stratigraphy provides insights into the evolution and dynamics of the Earth System over its long history. With recent developments in Earth System science, changes in Earth System dynamics can now be observed directly and projected into the near future. An integration of the two approaches provides powerful insights into the nature and significance of contemporary changes to Earth. From both perspectives, the Earth has been pushed out of the Holocene Epoch by human activities, with the mid-20th century a strong candidate for the start date of the Anthropocene, the proposed new epoch in Earth history. Here we explore two contrasting scenarios for the future of the Anthropocene, recognizing that the Earth System has already undergone a substantial transition away from the Holocene state. A rapid shift of societies toward the UN Sustainable Development Goals could stabilize the Earth System in a state with more intense interglacial conditions than in the late Quaternary climate regime and with little further biospheric change. In contrast, a continuation of the present Anthropocene trajectory of growing human pressures will likely lead to biotic impoverishment and a much warmer climate with a significant loss of polar ice.

Interfacing remote sensing and geographic information systems for global environmental change research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jae K.; Randolph, J. C.; Lulla, Kamlesh P.; Helfert, Michael R.

1993-01-01

Because changes in the Earth's environment have become major global issues, continuous, longterm scientific information is required to assess global problems such as deforestation, desertification, greenhouse effects and climate variations. Global change studies require understanding of interactions of complex processes regulating the Earth system. Space-based Earth observation is an essential element in global change research for documenting changes in Earth environment. It provides synoptic data for conceptual predictive modeling of future environmental change. This paper provides a brief overview of remote sensing technology from the perspective of global change research.

Influence of increasing active-layer depth and continued permafrost degradation on carbon, water and energy fluxes over two forested permafrost landscapes in the Taiga Plains, NWT, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnentag, O.; Baltzer, J.; Chasmer, L. E.; Detto, M.; Marsh, P.; Quinton, W. L.

2012-12-01

Recent research suggests an increase in active-layer depth (ALD) in the continuous permafrost zone and degradation of the discontinuous permafrost zone into seasonally frozen. Increasing ALD and continued permafrost degradation will have far-reaching consequences for northern ecosystems including altered regional hydrology and the exposure of additional soil organic carbon (C) to microbial decomposition. These changes might cause positive or negative net feedbacks to the climate system by altering important land surface properties and/or by releasing stored soil organic C to the atmosphere as CO2 and/or CH4. Knowledge gaps exist regarding the links between increasing ALD and/or permafrost degradation, regional hydrology, vegetation composition and structure, land surface properties, and CO2 and CH4 sink-source strengths. The goal of our interdisciplinary project is to shed light on these links by providing a mechanistic understanding of permafrost-thawing consequences for hydrological, ecophysiological and biogeochemical processes at two forested permafrost landscapes in the Taiga Plains, NWT, Canada: Scotty Creek and Havikpak Creek in the discontinuous and in the continuous permafrost zones, respectively (Fig.). The sites will be equipped with identical sets of instrumentation (start: 2013), to measure landscape-scale net exchanges of CO2, CH4, water and energy with the eddy covariance technique. These measurements will be complemented by repeated surveys of surface and frost table topography and vegetation, by land cover-type specific fluxes of CO2 and CH4 measured with a static chamber technique, and by remote sensing-based footprint analysis. With this research we will address the following questions: What is the net effect of permafrost thawing-induced biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to the climate system? How do these two different types of feedback differ between the discontinuous and continuous permafrost zones? Is the decrease (increase) in net CO2 (CH4) exchange measured over mostly tundra sites in the continuous permafrost zone generalizable to forested landscapes in both the discontinuous and continuous permafrost zones? With this contribution, we report on the project status, present its objectives and hypotheses, and outline its timeline and sampling design.

The role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal in stabilizing Earth's climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Tokarska, K.

2014-12-01

The current CO2 emission trend entails a risk that the 2°C target will be missed, potentially causing "dangerous" changes in Earth's climate system. This research explores the role of artificial atmospheric CO2 removal (also referred to as "negative emissions") in stabilizing Earth's climate after overshoot. We designed a range of plausible CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition from a fossil fuel driven economy to a zero-emission energy system, followed by a period of negative emissions. The scenarios differ in peak emissions rate and, accordingly, the amount of negative emissions, to reach the same cumulative emissions compatible with the 2°C temperature stabilization target. The climate system components' responses are computed using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that negative emissions are effective in reversing the global mean temperature and stabilizing it at a desired level (2°C above pre-industrial) after overshoot. Also, changes in the meridional overturning circulation and sea ice are reversible with the artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. However, sea level continues to rise and is not reversible for several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative emissions. For sea level to decline, atmospheric CO2 needs to be reduced to pre-industrial levels in our simulations. During the negative emission phase, outgassing of CO2 from terrestrial and marine carbon sinks offsets the artificial removal of atmospheric CO2, thereby reducing its effectiveness. On land, the largest CO2 outgassing occurs in the Tropics and is partially compensated by CO2 uptake at northern high latitudes. In the ocean, outgassing occurs mostly in the Southern Ocean, North Atlantic and tropical Pacific. The strongest outgassing occurs for pathways entailing greatest amounts of negative emissions, such that the efficiency of CO2 removal - here defined as the change in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission - decreases with increasing amounts of negative emissions.

The climate4impact portal: bridging the CMIP5 and CORDEX data infrastructure to impact users

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Pagé, Christian; Tatarinova, Natalia; Cofiño, Antonio; Vega Saldarriaga, Manuel; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Sjökvist, Elin

2015-04-01

The aim of climate4impact is to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. The portal is based on 21 impact use cases from 5 different European countries, and is evaluated by a user panel consisting of use case owners. It has been developed within the European projects IS-ENES and IS-ENES2 for more than 5 years, and its development currently continues within IS-ENES2 and CLIPC. As the climate impact community is very broad, the focus is mainly on the scientific impact community. This work has resulted in the ENES portal interface for climate impact communities and can be visited at www.climate4impact.eu. The climate4impact is connected to the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) nodes containing global climate model data (GCM data) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and regional climate model data (RCM) data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This global network of climate model data centers offers services for data description, discovery and download. The climate4impact portal connects to these services using OpenID, and offers a user interface for searching, visualizing and downloading global climate model data and more. A challenging task was to describe the available model data and how it can be used. The portal tries to inform users about possible caveats when using climate model data. All impact use cases are described in the documentation section, using highlighted keywords pointing to detailed information in the glossary. During the project, the content management system Drupal was used to enable partners to contribute on the documentation section. In this presentation the architecture and following items will be detailed: - Visualization: Visualize data from ESGF data nodes using ADAGUC Web Map Services. - Processing: Transform data, subset, export into other formats, and perform climate indices calculations using Web Processing Services implemented by PyWPS, based on NCAR NCPP OpenClimateGIS and IS-ENES2 icclim. - Security: Login using OpenID for access to the ESGF data nodes. The ESGF works in conjunction with several external websites and systems. The climate4impact portal uses X509 based short lived credentials, generated on behalf of the user with a MyProxy service. Single Sign-on (SSO) is used to make these websites and systems work together. - Discovery: Facetted search based on e.g. variable name, model and institute using the ESGF search services. A catalog browser allows for browsing through CMIP5 and any other climate model data catalogues (e.g. ESSENCE, EOBS, UNIDATA). - Download: Directly from ESGF nodes and other THREDDS catalogs This architecture will also be used for the future Copernicus platform, developed in the EU FP7 CLIPC project. - Connection with the downscaling portal of the university of Cantabria - Experiences on the question and answer site via Askbot The current main objectives for climate4impact can be summarized in two objectives. The first one is to work on a web interface which automatically generates a graphical user interface on WPS endpoints. The WPS calculates climate indices and subset data using OpenClimateGIS/icclim on data stored in ESGF data nodes. Data is then transmitted from ESGF nodes over secured OpenDAP and becomes available in a new, per user, secured OpenDAP server. The results can then be visualized again using ADAGUC WMS. Dedicated wizards for processing of climate indices will be developed in close collaboration with users. The second one is to expose climate4impact services, so as to offer standardized services which can be used by other portals. This has the advantage to add interoperability between several portals, as well as to enable the design of specific portals aimed at different impact communities, either thematic or national, for example.

Continuously on-going hindcast simulations for impact applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anders, Ivonne; Geyer, Beate

2016-04-01

Observations for e.g. temperature, precipitation, radiation, or wind are often used as meteorological forcing for different impact models, like e.g. crop models, urban models, economic models and energy system models. To assess a climate signal, the time period covered by the observation is often too short, they have gaps in between, and are inhomogeneous over time, due to changes in the measurements itself or in the near surrounding. Thus output from global and regional climate models can close the gap and provide homogeneous and physically consistent time series of meteorological parameters. CORDEX evaluation runs performed for the IPCC-AR5 provide a good base for the regional scale. However, with respect to climate services, continuously on-going hindcast simulations are required for regularly updated applications. In this study two projects are presented where hindcast-simulations optimized for a region of interest are performed continuously. The hindcast simulation performed by HZG covering Europe includes the EURO-CORDEX domain with a wider extend to the north to cover the ice edge. The simulation under consideration of the coastDat-experiences is available for the period of 1979 - 2015, prolonged ongoing and fulfills the customer's needs with respect of output variables, levels, intervals and statistical measures. CoastDat - customers are dealing e.g. with naval architecture, renewable energies, offshore wind farming, shipping emissions, coastal flood risk and others. The evaluation of the hindcast is done for Europe by using the EVAL-tool of the CCLM community and by comparison with HYRAS - data for Germany and neighbouring countries. The Climate Research group at the national Austrian weather service, ZAMG, is focusing on high mountain regions and, especially on the Alps. The hindcast-simulation is forced by ERA-interim and optimized for the Alpine Region. One of the main tasks is to capture strong precipitation events which often occur during summer when low pressure systems develop over the Golf of Genoa, moving to the North-East. This leads to floods and landslide events in Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. Such events are not sufficiently represented in the CORDEX-evaluation runs. ZAMG use high quality gridded precipitation and temperature data for the Alpine Region (1-6km) to evaluate the model performance. Data is provided e.g. to hydrological modellers (high water, low water), but also to assess icing capability of infrastructure.

Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan.

PubMed

Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

2015-06-09

The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service) were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing) had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health.

Ecosystem Functions Connecting Contributions from Ecosystem Services to Human Wellbeing in a Mangrove System in Northern Taiwan

PubMed Central

Hsieh, Hwey-Lian; Lin, Hsing-Juh; Shih, Shang-Shu; Chen, Chang-Po

2015-01-01

The present study examined a mangrove ecosystem in northern Taiwan to determine how the various components of ecosystem function, ecosystem services and human wellbeing are connected. The overall contributions of mangrove services to specific components of human wellbeing were also assessed. A network was developed and evaluated by an expert panel consisting of hydrologists, ecologists, and experts in the field of culture, landscape or architecture. The results showed that supporting habitats was the most important function to human wellbeing, while water quality, habitable climate, air quality, recreational opportunities, and knowledge systems were services that were strongly linked to human welfare. Security of continuous supply of services appeared to be the key to a comfortable life. From a bottom-up and top-down perspective, knowledge systems (a service) were most supported by ecosystem functions, while the security of continuous supply of services (wellbeing) had affected the most services. In addition, the overall benefits of mangrove services to human prosperity concentrated on mental health, security of continuous supply of services, and physical health. PMID:26067989

Arctic climatechange and its impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic.

PubMed

Greene, Charles H; Pershing, Andrew J; Cronin, Thomas M; Ceci, Nicole

2008-11-01

Arctic climate change from the Paleocene epoch to the present is reconstructed with the objective of assessing its recent and future impacts on the ecology of the North Atlantic. A recurring theme in Earth's paleoclimate record is the importance of the Arctic atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere in regulating global climate on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A second recurring theme in this record is the importance of freshwater export from the Arctic in regulating global- to basin-scale ocean circulation patterns and climate. Since the 1970s, historically unprecedented changes have been observed in the Arctic as climate warming has increased precipitation, river discharge, and glacial as well as sea-ice melting. In addition, modal shifts in the atmosphere have altered Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and the export of freshwater into the North Atlantic. The combination of these processes has resulted in variable patterns of freshwater export from the Arctic Ocean and the emergence of salinity anomalies that have periodically freshened waters in the North Atlantic. Since the early 1990s, changes in Arctic Ocean circulation patterns and freshwater export have been associated with two types of ecological responses in the North Atlantic. The first of these responses has been an ongoing series of biogeographic range expansions by boreal plankton, including renewal of the trans-Arctic exchanges of Pacific species with the Atlantic. The second response was a dramatic regime shift in the shelf ecosystems of the Northwest Atlantic that occurred during the early 1990s. This regime shift resulted from freshening and stratification of the shelf waters, which in turn could be linked to changes in the abundances and seasonal cycles of phytoplankton, zooplankton, and higher trophic-level consumer populations. It is predicted that the recently observed ecological responses to Arctic climate change in the North Atlantic will continue into the near future if current trends in sea ice, freshwater export, and surface ocean salinity continue. It is more difficult to predict ecological responses to abrupt climate change in the more distant future as tipping points in the Earth's climate system are exceeded.

Cumulative Carbon and Anthropocene Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, D.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Solomon, S.

2010-12-01

In this presentation we will highlight a few of the key findings of the recently completed National Research Council Study Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia (NRC, 2010), and discuss their implications for planetary stewardship. A synthesis of published results shows that the single number which most characterizes the magnitude of the human imprint on the climate of the coming millennia is the net amount of carbon released as CO2 by fossil fuel burning and land use changes during the time over which humanity continues such activities. Details of emissions scenarios are not important; rather it is the net carbon released by the time the emissions have been brought to essentially zero that controls long-term climate changes. In this report, we estimate that global temperatures increase by about 1 degree for approximately every 570 Pg of carbon emitted. Each degree of global temperature change is associated with quantifiable impacts on human and natural systems, including loss of arctic sea ice, decreased productivity of several major food crops, decreased precipitation in dry regions, and increases in area burnt by wildfire. Furthermore, the long timescale of temperature changes due to cumulative carbon emissions entails a lock-in to many centuries of continued sea-level rise, as well as the possibility of substantial contributions to sea-level rise from both Greenland and the West-Antarctic ice sheet. Reductions in methane or other short-lived greenhouse gas emissions can be of benefit in mitigating the near term climate changes, but CO2 is unique among major greenhouse gases in its ability to disrupt climate on multi-millennial time scales. This implies a need for correspondingly special treatment of this gas in emissions control protocols, for example by setting targets for allowable cumulative carbon emissions over time. The authoring committee was composed of Susan Solomon, Chair, David Battisti, Scott Doney, Katharine Hayhoe, Isaac M. Held, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, David Lobell, Damon Matthews, Raymond Pierrehumbert, Marilyn Raphael, Richard Richels, Terry L. Root, Konrad Steffen, Claudia Tebaldi, and Gary W. Yohe. Reference: National Research Council, 2010, Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia, The National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 232 pp.

Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model.

PubMed

Jiang, Yueyang; Zhuang, Qianlai; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen; Sokolov, Andrei; Kicklighter, David; Melillo, Jerry

2012-03-01

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45(o)N and polewards) for the period 1900-2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.

Assessing the impacts of extended drought conditions and global warming on groundwater resources in Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acar, O.; Franz, K.; Simpkins, W. W.

2013-12-01

Extended drought conditions that affected much of the U.S. throughout 2012 and continued into 2013 are bringing climate change to the forefront of public attention. Long-term effects of an extended dry spell on groundwater is especially concerning as these resources are essential for meeting drinking water demands, supporting agricultural and industrial activities, and maintaining water levels in rivers and lakes. Thus, the impact of extended drought conditions on the entire hydrologic cycle needs to be well understood to guide future resource and land management decisions. This study aims to explore the impact of extended drought conditions on groundwater resources in a representative Iowa watershed using Regional Climate Model scenarios implemented through HydroGeoSphere, a physically-based, surface water-groundwater model. Estimating the impacts of climate changes on groundwater resources requires representation of the full hydrological system, i.e. the connection between the atmospheric and surface-subsurface processes, in a realistic way. In the HydroGeoSphere model, surface and subsurface flow equations are solved simultaneously, and the interdependence of processes like actual evapotranspiration and recharge is handled explicitly. Using such state-of-the-art modeling tools, we seek to address the consequences of changing climate extremes (that have already been experienced and expected to continue over long periods in the future) on the hydrologic cycle of our pilot study area, the South Fork watershed in north-central Iowa. The results will provide a baseline for investigating mitigation strategies in agricultural practices and water use due to changes in the wet and dry cycles of the regional hydrologic cycle.

Assessing the groundwater recharge under various irrigation schemes in Central Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shih-Kai; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Lin, Zih-Ciao; Tsai, Cheng-Bin

2014-05-01

The flooded paddy fields can be considered as a major source of groundwater recharge in Central Taiwan. The risk of rice production has increased notably due to climate change in this area. To respond to agricultural water shortage caused by climate change without affecting rice yield in the future, the application of water-saving irrigation is the substantial resolution. The System of Rice Intensification (SRI) was developed as a set of insights and practices used in growing irrigated rice. Based on the water-saving irrigation practice of SRI, impacts of the new methodology on the reducing of groundwater recharge were assessed in central Taiwan. The three-dimensional finite element groundwater model (FEMWATER) with the variable boundary condition analog functions, was applied in simulating groundwater recharge under different irrigation schemes. According to local climatic and environmental characteristics associated with SRI methodology, the change of infiltration rate was evaluated and compared with the traditional irrigation schemes, including continuous irrigation and rotational irrigation scheme. The simulation results showed that the average infiltration rate in the rice growing season decreased when applying the SRI methodology, and the total groundwater recharge amount of SRI with a 5-day irrigation interval reduced 12% and 9% compared with continuous irrigation (6cm constant ponding water depth) and rotational scheme (5-day irrigation interval with 6 cm initial ponding water depth), respectively. The results could be used as basis for planning long-term adaptive water resource management strategies to climate change in Central Taiwan. Keywords: SRI, Irrigation schemes, Groundwater recharge, Infiltration

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Interactions of Climate Change, Air Pollution, and Human Health.

PubMed

Kinney, Patrick L

2018-03-01

I review literature on the impacts of climate change on air quality and human health, with a focus on articles published from 2013 on ozone and airborne particles. Selected previous literature is discussed where relevant in tracing the origins of our current knowledge. Climate and weather have strong influences on the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollution concentrations. Emissions of ozone and PM 2.5 precursors increase at higher ambient temperatures. The reactions that form ozone occur faster with greater sunlight and higher temperatures. Weather systems influence the movement and dispersion of air pollutants in the atmosphere through the action of winds, vertical mixing, and precipitation, all of which are likely to alter in a changing climate. Recent studies indicate that, holding anthropogenic air pollution emissions constant, ozone concentrations in populated regions will tend to increase in future climate scenarios. For the USA, the climate impact on ozone is most consistently seen in north-central and north-eastern states, with the potential for many thousands of additional ozone-related deaths. The sensitivity of anthropogenic PM 2.5 to climate is more variable across studies and regions, owing to the varied nature of PM constituents, as well as to less complete characterization of PM reaction chemistry in available atmospheric models. However, PM emitted by wildland fires is likely to become an increasing health risk in many parts of the world as climate continues to change. The complex interactions between climate change and air quality imply that future policies to mitigate these twin challenges will benefit from greater coordination. Assessing the health implications of alternative policy approaches towards climate and pollution mitigation will be a critical area of future work.

Vegetation Health and Productivity Indicators for Sustained National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M. O.; Running, S. W.

2014-12-01

The National Climate Assessment process is developing a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public. Implementing a 14 year record of Gross and Net Primary Productivity (GPP/NPP) derived from the NASA EOS MODIS satellite sensor we demonstrate how these products can serve as Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health National Climate Indicators for implementation in sustained National Climate Assessments. The NPP product combines MODIS vegetation data with daily global meteorology to calculate annual growth of all plant material at 1 sq. km resolution. NPP anomalies identify regions with above or below average plant growth that may result from climate fluctuations and can inform carbon source/sink dynamics, agricultural and forestry yield measures, and response to wildfire or drought conditions. The GPP product provides a high temporal resolution (8-day) metric of vegetation growth which can be used to monitor short-term vegetation response to extreme events and implemented to derive vegetation phenology metrics; growing season start, end, and length, which can elucidate land cover and regionally specific vegetation responses to a changing climate. The high spatial resolution GPP and NPP indicators can also inform and clarify responses seen from other proposed Pilot Indicators such as forest growth/productivity, land cover, crop production, and phenology. The GPP and NPP data are in continuous production and will be sustained into the future with the next generation satellite missions. The long-term Ecosystem Productivity and Vegetation Health Indicators are ideal for use in sustained National Climate Assessments, providing regionally specific responses to a changing climate and complete coverage at the national scale.

Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.

2014-12-01

Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.

How Cities Make Their Own Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall

2004-01-01

Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world's population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in d e near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world's population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters weather and climate processes. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-weather-climate system is incomplete. Recent literature continues to provide evidence that anomalies in precipitation exist over and downwind of major cities. Current and future research efforts are actively seeking to verify these literature findings and understand potential cause-effect relationships. The novelty of this study is that it utilizes rainfall data from multiple satellite data sources (e.g. TRMM precipitation radar, TRMM-geosynchronous-rain gauge merged product, and SSM/I) and ground-based measurements to identify spatial anomalies and temporal trends in precipitation for cities around the world. We will also present results from experiments using a regional atmospheric-land surface modeling system. Early results will be presented and placed within the context of weather prediction, climate assessment, and societal applications.

Identifying Crucial Issues in Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeda, Motoyoshi; Greve, Ralf; Hara, Toshika; Watanabe, Yutaka W.; Ohmura, Atsumu; Ito, Akihiko; Kawamiya, Michio

2009-01-01

Drastic Change in the Earth System During Global Warming; Sapporo, Japan, 24 June 2008; The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former U.S. vice president Al Gore indicates that global warming is recognized as a real phenomenon critical to human beings. However, humanity's knowledge concerning global warming is based on an uncertainty larger than 50% in the warming rate during the past century. Therefore, scientific clarification is needed to understand important mechanisms that potentially produce positive feedbacks in the Earth system-such mechanisms must be better understood before scientists can develop more reliable predictions. To plan for the future, a symposium was organized at Japan's Hokkaido University in association with the G8 Summit, where the most recent updates on the five urgent issues in climate science were discussed. These issues, considered to be crucial as severe impacts on human society continue to rise, included (1) causes and magnitude of sea level rise; (2) decay of glaciers and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets; (3) disappearance of the summer Arctic sea ice; (4) carbon uptake or emission by the terrestrial ecosystem; and (5) marine ecosystem change resulting in carbon emissions.

78 FR 78486 - Notice of Funding Availability for Resilience Projects in Response to Hurricane Sandy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-26

... changes in development patterns, demographics, or climate change and extreme weather patterns. For the... located; or projected changes in development patterns, demographics, or extreme weather or other climate... climate-related disasters are a continuing threat. According to the ``Hurricane Sandy Rebuilding Strategy...

Climate Change Effects on Stream and River Biological Indicators: A Preliminary Analysis (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

This draft report is a preliminary assessment that describes how biological indicators are likely to respond to climate change, how well current sampling schemes may detect climate-driven changes, and how likely it is that these sampling schemes will continue to detect impairment...

Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on Army Training Capabilities: Firing Ranges and Maneuver Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

ER D C TR -1 6- 1 Integrated Climate Assessment for Army Enterprise Planning Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on Army...ERDC TR-16-1 January 2016 Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on Army Training Capabilities Firing Ranges and Maneuver Areas Michelle E... changes associated with climate and urban development might affect the ability of Army installa- tions to continue to conduct training on firing ranges

Modeling large-scale human alteration of land surface hydrology and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Felfelani, Farshid; Shin, Sanghoon; Yamada, Tomohito J.; Satoh, Yusuke

2017-12-01

Rapidly expanding human activities have profoundly affected various biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system over a broad range of scales, and freshwater systems are now amongst the most extensively altered ecosystems. In this study, we examine the human-induced changes in land surface water and energy balances and the associated climate impacts using a coupled hydrological-climate model framework which also simulates the impacts of human activities on the water cycle. We present three sets of analyses using the results from two model versions—one with and the other without considering human activities; both versions are run in offline and coupled mode resulting in a series of four experiments in total. First, we examine climate and human-induced changes in regional water balance focusing on the widely debated issue of the desiccation of the Aral Sea in central Asia. Then, we discuss the changes in surface temperature as a result of changes in land surface energy balance due to irrigation over global and regional scales. Finally, we examine the global and regional climate impacts of increased atmospheric water vapor content due to irrigation. Results indicate that the direct anthropogenic alteration of river flow in the Aral Sea basin resulted in the loss of 510 km3 of water during the latter half of the twentieth century which explains about half of the total loss of water from the sea. Results of irrigation-induced changes in surface energy balance suggest a significant surface cooling of up to 3.3 K over 1° grids in highly irrigated areas but a negligible change in land surface temperature when averaged over sufficiently large global regions. Results from the coupled model indicate a substantial change in 2 m air temperature and outgoing longwave radiation due to irrigation, highlighting the non-local (regional and global) implications of irrigation. These results provide important insights on the direct human alteration of land surface water and energy balances, highlighting the need to incorporate human activities such as irrigation into the framework of global climate models and Earth system models for better prediction of future changes under increasing human influence and continuing global climate change.

A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Key, Jeffrey R.; Koenig, Lora S.

2011-01-01

We have developed a climate-quality data record of the clear-sky surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra ice-surface temperature (1ST) algorithm. A climate-data record (CDR) is a time series of measurements of sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to determine climate variability and change. We present daily and monthly Terra MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid within +/-3 hours of 17:00Z or 2:00 PM Local Solar Time. Preliminary validation of the ISTs at Summit Camp, Greenland, during the 2008-09 winter, shows that there is a cold bias using the MODIS IST which underestimates the measured surface temperature by approximately 3 C when temperatures range from approximately -50 C to approximately -35 C. The ultimate goal is to develop a CDR that starts in 1981 with the Advanced Very High Resolution (AVHRR) Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset and continues with MODIS data from 2000 to the present. Differences in the APP and MODIS cloud masks have so far precluded the current IST records from spanning both the APP and MODIS IST time series in a seamless manner though this will be revisited when the APP dataset has been reprocessed. The Greenland IST climate-quality data record is suitable for continuation using future Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data and will be elevated in status to a CDR when at least 9 more years of climate-quality data become available either from MODIS Terra or Aqua, or from the VIIRS. The complete MODIS IST data record will be available online in the summer of 2011.

Climate-driven tree mortality: insights from the pinon pine die-off in the United States

Treesearch

Jeffrey A. Hicke; Melanie J. B. Zeppel

2013-01-01

The global climate is changing, and a range of negative effects on plants has already been observed and will likely continue into the future. One of the most apparent consequences of climate change is widespread tree mortality (Fig. 1). Extensive tree die-offs resulting from recent climate change have been documented across a range of forest types on all forested...

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.

2004-01-01

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Late Pliocene/Early Pleistocene environments inferred from the Lake El'gygytgyn pollen record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreev, Andrei; Wennrich, Volker; Tarasov, Pavel; Raschke (Morozova), Elena; Brigham-Grette, Julie; Nowaczyk, Norbert; Melles, Martin

2014-05-01

The Arctic is known to play a crucial role within the global climate system. The mid-Pliocene (3-3.5 Ma) is considered to be the most probable scenario of the future climate changes. However, reliable climate projections are hampered by the complexity of the underlying natural variability and feedback mechanisms. An important prerequisite for the validation and improvement of the future projections is a better understanding of the long-term environmental history of the Arctic. Unfortunately, formation of continuous paleoenvironmental records in the Arctic was widely restricted due to repeated glaciations. Continuous sequences that penetrate the entire Quaternary and further into the Pliocene are highly desired and would enable to validate the temperature rise during the mid-Pliocene that was proposed by former studies. Such a record has now become available from Lake El'gygytgyn (67º30'N, 172º05E') located in a meteorite impact crater in north-eastern Siberia. The impact nearly 3.6 Ma ago formed an 18 km wide hole in the ground that then filled with water. The retrieved lake sediments have trapped pollen from a several thousand square-kilometer source area providing reliable insights into regional and over-regional millennial-scale vegetation and climate changes of the Arctic since the Pliocene. The ''El'gygytgyn Drilling Project" of ICDP has completed three holes in the center of the lake, penetrating about 318 m thick lake sediments and about 200 m of the impact rocks below. Because of its unusual origin and high-latitude setting in western Beringia, scientific drilling at Lake El'gygytgyn offered unique opportunities for paleoclimate research, allowing time-continuous climatic and environmental reconstructions back into the Pliocene. Late Pliocene and Early Pleistocene pollen assemblages can be subdivided into 55 pollen zones, which reflect the main environmental fluctuations in the region 3.55-2.15 Ma BP. Pollen-based climate reconstructions show that conditions in the study area were the warmest about 3.55-3.4 Ma BP when spruce-pine-fir-hemlock-larch-Pseudotsuga forests dominated in nowadays tundra area. After ca 3.4 Ma BP dark coniferous taxa gradually disappeared from the vegetation. Very pronounced environmental changes are revealed about ca 3.35-3.275 Ma BP when treeless tundra and steppe habitats dominated. Treeless and shrubby environments are also indicative after ca 2.6 Ma. Dry and cold climate conditions were similar to those during the Late Pleistocene. The Early Pleistocene sediments contain pollen assemblages reflecting alternation of treeless intervals with cold and dry climate and warmer intervals when larch forests with stone pines, shrub alders and birches were also common in the region. Very dry environments are revealed after ca 2.175 Ma BP. High amounts of green algae colonies (Botryococcus) in the studied sediments point to shallow-water conditions ca 2.55, 2.45, and ca 2.175 Ma BP. Thus, pollen studies show that sediments accumulated in Lake El'gygytgyn are an excellent archive of environmental changes since 3.55 Myr BP. The record well reflects main regional paleoenvironmental fluctuations. The further high-resolution palynological study of the core will reveal climate fluctuations inside the main glacial/interglacial intervals and will give the first continuous and detailed scheme of environmental changes for a whole Arctic.

A Novel Estimator for the Rate of Information Transfer by Continuous Signals

PubMed Central

Takalo, Jouni; Ignatova, Irina; Weckström, Matti; Vähäsöyrinki, Mikko

2011-01-01

The information transfer rate provides an objective and rigorous way to quantify how much information is being transmitted through a communications channel whose input and output consist of time-varying signals. However, current estimators of information content in continuous signals are typically based on assumptions about the system's linearity and signal statistics, or they require prohibitive amounts of data. Here we present a novel information rate estimator without these limitations that is also optimized for computational efficiency. We validate the method with a simulated Gaussian information channel and demonstrate its performance with two example applications. Information transfer between the input and output signals of a nonlinear system is analyzed using a sensory receptor neuron as the model system. Then, a climate data set is analyzed to demonstrate that the method can be applied to a system based on two outputs generated by interrelated random processes. These analyses also demonstrate that the new method offers consistent performance in situations where classical methods fail. In addition to these examples, the method is applicable to a wide range of continuous time series commonly observed in the natural sciences, economics and engineering. PMID:21494562

Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Sohn, Byung-Ju; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We use the da Silva ocean flux data to identify composite structure of departures of latent heat flux from climatology. We also show how these patterns arise out of associated wind and humidity anomaly distributions. Our preliminary work shows that evaporation sensitivity estimates from the da Silva / COADS data, computed for the tropical oceans (30 degrees N/S) are in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 W/square m K. Model estimates are also quite close to this figure. This rate is only slightly less than a rate corresponding to constant relative humidity; however, substantial regional departures from constant relative humidity are present. These patterns are robust and we relate the associated wind and humidity fluctuations noted in previous investigations to the derived evaporation anomalies. Finally, these results are interpreted with other data from the Earth radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and NASA's Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data set to characterize the tropical energetics of ENSO-related climate variability.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis.

PubMed

Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

2016-01-01

This review assessed Ethiopia's existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country.

Spatiotemporal Trends in late-Holocene Fire Regimes in Arctic and Boreal Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoecker, T. J.; Higuera, P. E.; Hu, F.; Kelly, R.

2015-12-01

Alaskan arctic and boreal ecosystems are of global importance owing to their sensitivity and feedbacks to directional climate change. Wildfires are a primary driver of boreal carbon balance, and altered fire regimes may significantly impact global climate through the release of stored carbon and changes to surface albedo. Paleoecological records provide a window to how these systems respond to change by revealing climatic and disturbance variability throughout the Holocene. These long-term records highlight the sensitivity of fire regimes to climate and vegetation change, including responses to the relatively warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), and the relatively cool Little Ice Age (LIA). Over millennial timescales, boreal forests and arctic tundra have been resilient to climate change, but continued directional climate change may result in novel vegetation compositions and fire regimes, with potentially significant implications for global climate. Here we present a spatiotemporal synthesis of 22 published sediment-charcoal records from three Alaskan ecoregions. We add to this network eight records collected in June 2015 from an additional ecoregion. Variability in fire return intervals (FRIs) was quantified within and among ecoregions and climatic periods spanning the past 2 millennia, based on a peak analysis representing local fire events. Preliminary results suggest that fire regimes were responsive to centennial-scale climatic shifts, including the MCA and LIA, but the degree of sensitivity varies by ecoregion. Over the past 2000 years, FRIs were shortest during the MCA, indicating the potential for climate warming to promote high rates of burning. FRIs in tundra regions of northwestern Alaska and in interior boreal forests were 20% shorter during the MCA than during the LIA, and 25% shorter in boreal forest in the south-central Brooks Range. Burning was likely promoted during the warmer, drier MCA through lower fuel moisture. Quantifying fire-regime response to climate forcing across multiple ecoregions helps reveal the mechanisms that connect fire and climate in Alaskan ecosystems.

Review of Climate Change and Health in Ethiopia: Status and Gap Analysis

PubMed Central

Simane, Belay; Beyene, Hunachew; Deressa, Wakgari; Kumie, Abera; Berhane, Kiros; Samet, Jonathan

2017-01-01

Background This review assessed Ethiopia’s existing situation on issues related to the environment, climate change and health, and identifies gaps and needs that can be addressed through research, training, and capacity building. Methods The research was conducted through a comprehensive review of available secondary data and interviewing key informants in various national organizations involved in climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Results Climate change-related health problems, such as mortality and morbidity due to floods and heat waves, vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases, meningitis, and air pollution-related respiratory diseases are increasing in Ethiopia. Sensitive systems such as agriculture, health, and water have been affected, and the effects of climate change will continue to magnify without the right adaptation and mitigation measures. Currently, research on climate change and health is not adequately developed in Ethiopia. Research and other activities appear to be fragmented and uncoordinated. As a result, very few spatially detailed and methodologically consistent studies have been made to assess the impact of climate in the country. There has often been a lack of sufficient collaboration among organizations on the planning and execution of climate change and health activities, and the lack of trained professionals who can perform climate change and health-related research activities at various levels. Conclusion Firstly, there is a lack of organized structure in the various organizations. Secondly, there is inadequate level of inter-sectoral collaboration and poor coordination and communication among different stakeholders. Thirdly, there are no reliable policy guidelines and programs among organizations, agencies and offices that target climate change and health. Fourth, the existing policies fail to consider the gender and community-related dimensions of climate change. Fifth, the monitoring and evaluation efforts exerted on climate change and health activities are not strong enough to address the climate change and health issues in the country. PMID:28867919

Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.

2018-01-01

The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some minor negative consequences of it can be successfully prevented.

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference to possible prediction of climate change. Model concepts, if correct, rule out unambiguously, linear trends in climate. Climate change will only be manifested as increase or decrease in the natural variability. However, more stringent tests of model concepts and predictions are required before applications to such an important issue as climate change. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate (O'Gorman in Curr Clim Change Rep 1:49-59, 2015).

Nutrients in estuaries--an overview and the potential impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Statham, Peter J

2012-09-15

The fate and cycling of macronutrients introduced into estuaries depend upon a range of interlinked processes. Hydrodynamics and morphology in combination with freshwater inflow control the freshwater flushing time, and the timescale for biogeochemical processes to operate that include microbial activity, particle-dissolved phase interactions, and benthic exchanges. In some systems atmospheric inputs and exchanges with coastal waters can also be important. Climate change will affect nutrient inputs and behaviour through modifications to temperature, wind patterns, the hydrological cycle, and sea level rise. Resulting impacts include: 1) inundation of freshwater systems 2) changes in stratification, flushing times and phytoplankton productivity 3) increased coastal storm activity 4) changes in species and ecosystem function. A combination of continuing high inputs of nutrients through human activity and climate change is anticipated to lead to enhanced eutrophication in the future. The most obvious impacts of increasing global temperature will be in sub-arctic systems where permafrost zones will be reduced in combination with enhanced inputs from glacial systems. Improved process understanding in several key areas including cycling of organic N and P, benthic exchanges, resuspension, impact of bio-irrigation, particle interactions, submarine groundwater discharges, and rates and magnitude of bacterially-driven recycling processes, is needed. Development of high frequency in situ nutrient analysis systems will provide data to improve predictive models that need to incorporate a wider variety of key factors, although the complexity of estuarine systems makes such modelling a challenge. However, overall a more holistic approach is needed to effectively understand, predict and manage the impact of macronutrients on estuaries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NOAA's Satellite Climate Data Records: The Research to Operations Process and Current State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privette, J. L.; Bates, J. J.; Kearns, E. J.; NOAA's Climate Data Record Program

2011-12-01

In support of NOAA's mandate to provide climate products and services to the Nation, the National Climatic Data Center initiated the satellite Climate Data Record (CDR) Program. The Program develops and sustains climate information products derived from satellite data that NOAA has collected over the past 30+ years. These are the longest sets of continuous global measurements in existence. Data from other satellite programs, including those in NASA, the Department of Defense, and foreign space agencies, are also used. NOAA is now applying advanced analysis techniques to these historic data. This process is unraveling underlying climate trend and variability information and returning new value from the data. However, the transition of complex data processing chains, voluminous data products and documentation into an systematic, configuration controlled context involves many challenges. In this presentation, we focus on the Program's process for research-to-operations transition and the evolving systems designed to ensure transparency, security, economy and authoritative value. The Program has adopted a two-phase process defined by an Initial Operational Capability (IOC) and a Full Operational Capability (FOC). The principles and procedures for IOC are described, as well as the process for moving CDRs from IOC to FOC. Finally, we will describe the state of the CDRs in all phases the Program, with an emphasis on the seven community-developed CDRs transitioned to NOAA in 2011. Details on CDR access and distribution will be provided.

Structure and vulnerability of Pacific Northwest tidal wetlands – A summary of wetland climate change research by the Western Ecology Division, U.S. EPA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Folger, Christina L; Lee, Henry; Janousek, Christopher N.; Reusser, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses a serious threat to the tidal wetlands of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the U.S. In response to this threat, scientists at the Western Ecology Division of the U.S. EPA at and the Western Fisheries Research Center of the U.S. Geological Survey, along with other partners, initiated a series of studies on the structure and vulnerability of tidal wetlands to climate change. One research thrust was to evaluate community structure of PNW marshes, experimentally assess the vulnerability of marsh plants to inundation and salinity stress (as would happen with sea level rise), and evaluate the utility of the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) classification system. Another research thrust was to develop tools that provide insights into possible impacts of climate change. This effort included enhancing the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) to predict the effects of sea level rise on submerged aquatic vegetation (Zostera marina) distributions, evaluating changes in river flow into coastal estuaries in response to precipitation changes, and synthesizing Pacific Coast estuary, watershed, and climate data in a downloadable tool. Because the research resulting from these efforts was published in multiple venues, we summarized them in this document. We anticipate that future research efforts by the U.S. EPA will continue with a focus on climate change impacts on a regional scale.

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests

PubMed Central

Williams, A. Park

2016-01-01

Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting. PMID:27791053

Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

1999-08-18

As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more technically feasible than originally anticipated.

Status and Plans for Reanalysis at NASA/GMAO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gelaro, Ron

2017-01-01

Reanalysis plays a critical role in GMAOs goal to enhance NASA's program of Earth observations, providing vital data sets for climate research and the development of future missions. As the breadth of NASAs observations expands to include multiple components of the Earth system, so does the need to assimilate observations from currently uncoupled components of the system in a more physically consistent manner. GMAOs most recent reanalysis of the satellite era, MERRA-2, has completed the period 1980-present, and is now running as a continuing global climate analysis with two- to three-week latency. MERRA-2 assimilates meteorological and aerosol observations as a weakly coupled assimilation system as a first step toward GMAOs longer term goal of developing an integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) capability that will couple assimilation systems for the atmosphere, ocean, land and chemistry. The GMAO strategy is to progress incrementally toward an IESA through an evolving combination of coupled systems and offline component reanalyses driven by, for example, MERRA-2 atmospheric forcing. Most recently, the GMAO has implemented a weakly coupled assimilation scheme for analyzing ocean skin temperature within the existing atmospheric analysis. The scheme uses background fields from a near-surface ocean diurnal layer model to assimilate surface-sensitive radiances plus in-situ observations along with all other observations in the atmospheric assimilation system. In addition, MERRA-2-driven simulations of the ocean (plus sea ice) and atmospheric chemistry (for the EOS period) are currently underway, as is the development of a coupled atmosphere-ocean assimilation system. This talk will describe the status of these ongoing efforts and the planned steps toward an IESA capability for climate research.

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Possible Cause for Recent Decadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, Mojib; Park, Taewook; Park, Wonsun

2017-04-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major oceanic current system with widespread climate impacts. AMOC influences have been discussed among others with regard to Atlantic hurricane activity, regional sea level variability, and surface air temperature and precipitation changes on land areas adjacent to the North Atlantic Ocean. Most climate models project significant AMOC slowing during the 21st century, if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise unabatedly. Recently, a marked decadal decline in AMOC strength has been observed, which was followed by strongly reduced oceanic poleward heat transport and record low sea surface temperature in parts of the North Atlantic. Here, we provide evidence from observations, re-analyses and climate models that the AMOC decline was due to the combined action of the North Atlantic Oscillation and East Atlantic Pattern, the two leading modes of North Atlantic atmospheric surface pressure variability, which prior to the decline both transitioned into their negative phases. This change in atmospheric circulation diminished oceanic heat loss over the Labrador Sea and forced ocean circulation changes lowering upper ocean salinity transport into that region. As a consequence, Labrador Sea deep convection weakened, which eventually slowed the AMOC. This study suggests a new mechanism for decadal AMOC variability, which is important to multiyear climate predictability and climate change detection in the North Atlantic sector.

Marine ARM GPCI Investigation of Clouds Infrared Sea Surface Temperature Autonomous Radiometer (ISAR) Field Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reynolds, R. Michael; Long, Charles N.

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most appropriate and important climate parameters: a widespread increase is an indicator of global warming and modifications of the geographical distribution of SST are an extremely sensitive indicator of climate change. There is high demand for accurate, reliable, high-spatial-and-temporal-resolution SST measurements for the parameterization of ocean-atmosphere heat, momentum, and gas (SST is therefore critical to understanding the processes controlling the global carbon dioxide budget) fluxes, for detailed diagnostic and process-orientated studies to better understand the behavior of the climate system, as model boundary conditions, for assimilation into climate models, and for themore » rigorous validation of climate model output. In order to achieve an overall net flux uncertainty < 10 W/m 2 (Bradley and Fairall, 2006), the sea surface (skin) temperature (SSST) must be measured to an error < 0.1 C and a precision of 0.05 C. Anyone experienced in shipboard meteorological measurements will recognize this is a tough specification. These demands require complete confidence in the content, interpretation, accuracy, reliability, and continuity of observational SST data—criteria that can only be fulfilled by the successful implementation of an ongoing data product validation strategy.« less

The great carbon push-pull: where science is pushing and policy is pulling the official forest carbon inventory of the US

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; G.M. Domke; J. Coulston; M.B. Russell; J.A. Smith; C.H. Perry; S. Healey; A. Gray

2015-01-01

A national system of field inventory plots (FIA) is the primary data source for the annual assessment of US forest carbon (C) stocks and stock-change to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The inventory data and their role in national carbon reporting continue to evolve. The framework of the previous C...

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-01

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Karstic water storage response to the recent droughts in Southwest China estimated from satellite gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Chaolong; Luo, Zhicai

2015-12-01

The water resources crisis is intensifying in Southwest China (SWC), which includes the world's largest continuous coverage of karst landforms, due to recent severe drought events. However, because of the special properties of karstic water system, such as strong heterogeneity, monitoring the variation of karstic water resources at large scales remains still difficult. Satellite gravimetry has emerged as an effective tool for investigating the global and regional water cycles. In this study, we used GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data from January 2003 to January 2013 to investigate karstic water storage variability over the karst region of SWC. We assessed the impacts of the recent severe droughts on karst water resources, including two heavy droughts in September 2010 to May 2010 and August 2011 to January 2012. Results show a slightly water increase tend during the studied period, but these two severe droughts have resulted in significant water depletion in the studied karst region. The latter drought during 2011 and 2012 caused more water deficits than that of the drought in 2010. Strong correlation between the variations of GRACE-based total water storage and precipitation suggests that climate change is the main driving force for the significant water absent over the studied karst region. As the world's largest continuous coverage karst aquifer, the karst region of SWC offers an example of GRACE applications to a karst system incisively and will benefit for water management from a long-term perspective in karst systems throughout the world.

The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2.

PubMed

Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R

2017-07-01

Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995-2004 and 2085-2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Building a foundation for continued dialogue between climate science and water resource communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vano, J. A.; Arnold, J.; Clark, M. P.; Gutmann, E. D.; Hamman, J.; Nijssen, B.; Wood, A.

2017-12-01

Research into climate change has led to the development of many global climate models, downscaling techniques, and impacts models. This proliferation of information has resulted in insights into how climate change will impact hydrology that are more robust than any single approach, which is helpful for advancing the science. However, the variety of approaches makes navigating what information to use in water resource planning and management challenging. Each technique has strengths and weaknesses and associated uncertainties, and approaches are always being updated. Here we provide a user-focused, modularly framed guidance that is designed to be expandable and where updates can be targeted. This includes describing dos and don'ts for how to use climate change information in water resource planning and management that can be read at multiple levels. It can provide context for those seeking to understand the general need, opportunities, and challenges of including climate change information. It also provides details (frequently asked questions and examples) and direction to further guidance and resources for those engaged in the technical work. This guidance is intended to provide a foundation for continued dialogue within and between the climate science and application communities, to increase the utility and appropriate use of climate change information.

Climate Impacts on Agriculture in the United States: The Value of Past Observations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate impacts on agriculture cause variations in crop yields and lead to lack of stability in grain production. This will become more critical as the world population continues to increase and demands more food. There have been many studies that have shown the impact of climate on agricultural pro...

Rapid coupling between ice volume and polar temperature over the past 150,000 years.

PubMed

Grant, K M; Rohling, E J; Bar-Matthews, M; Ayalon, A; Medina-Elizalde, M; Ramsey, C Bronk; Satow, C; Roberts, A P

2012-11-29

Current global warming necessitates a detailed understanding of the relationships between climate and global ice volume. Highly resolved and continuous sea-level records are essential for quantifying ice-volume changes. However, an unbiased study of the timing of past ice-volume changes, relative to polar climate change, has so far been impossible because available sea-level records either were dated by using orbital tuning or ice-core timescales, or were discontinuous in time. Here we present an independent dating of a continuous, high-resolution sea-level record in millennial-scale detail throughout the past 150,000 years. We find that the timing of ice-volume fluctuations agrees well with that of variations in Antarctic climate and especially Greenland climate. Amplitudes of ice-volume fluctuations more closely match Antarctic (rather than Greenland) climate changes. Polar climate and ice-volume changes, and their rates of change, are found to covary within centennial response times. Finally, rates of sea-level rise reached at least 1.2 m per century during all major episodes of ice-volume reduction.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

The last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region: a multi-archives synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazin, Lucie; Siani, Giuseppe; Landais, Amaelle; Bassinot, Frank; Genty, Dominique; Govin, Aline; Michel, Elisabeth; Nomade, Sebastien; Waelbroeck, Claire

2016-04-01

Multiple proxies record past climatic changes in different climate archives. These proxies are influenced by different component of the climate system and bring complementary information on past climate variability. The major limitation when combining proxies from different archives comes from the coherency of their chronologies. Indeed, each climate archives possess their own dating methods, not necessarily coherent with each other's. Consequently, when we want to assess the latitudinal changes and mechanisms behind a climate event, we often have to rely on assumptions of synchronisation between the different archives, such as synchronous temperature changes during warming events (Austin and Hibbert 2010). Recently, a dating method originally developed to produce coherent chronologies for ice cores (Datice,Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2010) has been adapted in order to integrate different climate archives (ice cores, sediment cores and speleothems (Lemieux-Dudon et al., 2015, Bazin et al., in prep)). In this presentation we present the validation of this multi-archives dating tool with a first application covering the last Deglaciation in the Mediterranean region. For this experiment, we consider the records from Monticchio, the MD90-917, Tenaghi Philippon and Lake Orhid sediment cores as well as continuous speleothems from Sofular, Soreq and La Mine caves. Using the Datice dating tool, and with the identification of common tephra layers between the cores considered, we are able to produce a multi-archives coherent chronology for this region, independently of any climatic assumption. Using this common chronological framework, we show that the usual climatic synchronisation assumptions are not valid over this region for the last glacial-interglacial transition. Finally, we compare our coherent Mediterranean chronology with Greenland ice core records in order to discuss the sequence of events of the last Deglaciation between these two regions.

Comparison of the timings between abrupt climate changes in Greenland, Antarctica, China and Japan based on robust correlation using Lake Suigetsu as a template.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, T.

2014-12-01

High-resolution pollen-derived climate records from Lake Suigetsu varved sediment core were compared with climate archives from other regions and revealed a particular spatio-temporal structure of the monsoon climate change during so-called D-O events. Leads and lags of the climate change between different regions hold the key to understand the climate system. However, robust assessment of the relative timing of the climate change is often very challenging because correlation of the climatic archives from different regions often has inevitable uncertainties. Greenland and Cariaco basin, for example, provide two of the most frequently sited palaeoclimatic proxy data representative of the high- and low-latitudinal Atlantic regions. However, robust correlation of the records from those regions is difficult because of the uncertainties in layer countings, lack of the radiocarbon age control from ice cores, marine reservoir age of the Cariaco sediments, and the absence of the tephra layers shared by both cites. Similarly, Speleothem and ice core records are not robustly correlated to each other, either for the dead carbon fraction in the speleothems and lack of reliable correlation markers. The generally accepted hypothesis of synchronous climate change between China and the Greenland is, therefore, essentially hypothetical. Lake Suigetsu provides solution to this problem. The lake Suigetsu chronology is supposed to be coherent to the speleothems' U-Th age scale. Suigetsu's semi-continuous radiocarbon dataset, which constitutes major component of the IntCal13 radiocarbon calibration model, also provides opportunity to correlate lake Suigetsu and the Greenland and Antarctic ice cores using cosmogenic isotopes as the correlation key. Results of the correlation and timing comparison, which cast new lights to the mechanism of the monsoon change, will be presented.

Regional drought-induced reduction in the biomass carbon sink of Canada's boreal forests.

PubMed

Ma, Zhihai; Peng, Changhui; Zhu, Qiuan; Chen, Huai; Yu, Guirui; Li, Weizhong; Zhou, Xiaolu; Wang, Weifeng; Zhang, Wenhua

2012-02-14

The boreal forests, identified as a critical "tipping element" of the Earth's climate system, play a critical role in the global carbon budget. Recent findings have suggested that terrestrial carbon sinks in northern high-latitude regions are weakening, but there has been little observational evidence to support the idea of a reduction of carbon sinks in northern terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we estimated changes in the biomass carbon sink of natural stands throughout Canada's boreal forests using data from long-term forest permanent sampling plots. We found that in recent decades, the rate of biomass change decreased significantly in western Canada (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), but there was no significant trend for eastern Canada (Ontario and Quebec). Our results revealed that recent climate change, and especially drought-induced water stress, is the dominant cause of the observed reduction in the biomass carbon sink, suggesting that western Canada's boreal forests may become net carbon sources if the climate change-induced droughts continue to intensify.

Paleoecological evidence for abrupt cold reversals during peak Holocene warmth on Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Axford, Yarrow; Briner, Jason P.; Miller, Gifford H.; Francis, Donna R.

2009-03-01

A continuous record of insect (Chironomidae) remains preserved in lake sediments is used to infer temperature changes at a small lake in Arctic Canada through the Holocene. Early Holocene summers at the study site were characterized by more thermophilous assemblages and warmer inferred temperatures than today, presumably in response to the positive anomaly in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Peak early Holocene warmth was interrupted by two cold reversals between 9.5 and 8 cal ka BP, during which multiple cold-stenothermous chironomid taxa appeared in the lake. The earlier reversal appears to correlate with widespread climate anomalies around 9.2 cal ka BP; the age of the younger reversal is equivocal but it may correlate with the 8.2 cal ka BP cold event documented elsewhere. Widespread, abrupt climate shifts in the early Holocene illustrate the susceptibility of the climate system to perturbations, even during periods of enhanced warmth in the Northern Hemisphere.

Application of Recurrent Neural Networks on El Nino Impact on California Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, J.; El-Askary, H. M.; Allai, M.

2017-12-01

Following our successful paper on the application for the El Nino season of 2015-2016 over Southern California, we use recurrent neural networks (RNNs) to investigate the complex interactions between the long-term trend in dryness and a projected, short but intense, period of wetness due to the 2015-2016 El Niño. Although it was forecasted that this El Niño season would bring significant rainfall to the region, our long-term projections of the Palmer Z Index (PZI) showed a continuing drought trend. We achieved a statistically significant correlation of 0.610 between forecasted and observed PZI on the validation set for a lead time of 1 month. This gives strong confidence to the forecasted precipitation indicator. These predictions were bourne out in the resulting data. This paper details the expansion of our system to the climate of the entire California climate as a whole, dealing with inter-relationships and spatial variations within the state.

Long term fluctuations of groundwater mine pollution in a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate: Implications for water resources management and remediation.

PubMed

Caraballo, Manuel A; Macías, Francisco; Nieto, José Miguel; Ayora, Carlos

2016-01-01

Water resources management and restoration strategies, and subsequently ecological and human life quality, are highly influenced by the presence of short and long term cycles affecting the intensity of a targeted pollution. On this respect, a typical acid mine drainage (AMD) groundwater from a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate (Iberian Pyrite Belt, SW Spain) was studied to unravel the effect of long term weather changes in water flow rate and metal pollutants concentration. Three well differentiated polluting stages were observed and the specific geochemical, mineralogical and hydrological processes involved (pyrite and enclosing rocks dissolution, evaporitic salts precipitation-redisolution and pluviometric long term fluctuations) were discussed. Evidencing the importance of including longer background monitoring stage in AMD management and restoration strategies, the present study strongly advise a minimum 5-years period of AMD continuous monitoring previous to the design of any AMD remediation system in regions with dry Mediterranean climate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (HSPDP). Deciphering climate information from the Chew Bahir sediment cores: Towards a continuous half-million year climate record near the Omo - Turkana key palaeonanthropological Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, Verena E.; Asrat, Asfawossen; Chapot, Melissa S.; Cohen, Andrew S.; Dean, Jonathan R.; Deino, Alan; Günter, Christina; Junginger, Annett; Lamb, Henry F.; Leng, Melanie J.; Roberts, Helen M.; Schaebitz, Frank; Trauth, Martin H.

2017-04-01

As a contribution towards an enhanced understanding of human-climate interactions, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) has successfully completed coring five dominantly lacustrine archives of climate change during the last 3.5 Ma in East Africa. All five sites in Ethiopia and Kenya are adjacent to key paleoanthropological research areas encompassing diverse milestones in human evolution, dispersal episodes, and technological innovation. The 280 m-long Chew Bahir sediment records, recovered from a tectonically-bound basin in the southern Ethiopian rift in late 2014, cover the past 550 ka of environmental history, a time period that includes the transition to the Middle Stone Age, and the origin and dispersal of modern Homo sapiens. Deciphering climate information from lake sediments is challenging, due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. We will present the first results in our efforts to develop a reliable climate-proxy tool box for Chew Bahir by deconvolving the relationship between sedimentological and geochemical sediment composition and strongly climate-controlled processes in the basin, such as incongruent weathering, transportation and authigenic mineral alteration. Combining our first results from the long cores with those from a pilot study of short cores taken in 2009/10 along a NW-SE transect of the basin, we have developed a hypothesis linking climate forcing and paleoenvironmental signal-formation processes in the basin. X-ray diffraction analysis of the first sample sets from the long Chew Bahir record reveals similar processes that have been recognized for the uppermost 20 m during the pilot-study of the project: the diagenetic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed-basin lake induced by a drier climate. The precise time resolution, largely continuous record and (eventually) a detailed understanding of site specific proxy formation, will give us a continuous record of environmental history on decadal to orbital timescales. Our data enable us to test current hypotheses of the impact of a variety of climate shifts on human evolution and dispersal.

Metabolic regulation during constant moderate physical exertion in extreme conditions in Type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Valletta, J J; Chipperfield, A J; Clough, G F; Byrne, C D

2012-06-01

Constant moderate intensity physical exertion in humid environments at altitude poses a considerable challenge to maintaining euglycaemia with Type 1 diabetes. Blood glucose concentrations and energy expenditure were continuously recorded in a person trekking at altitude in a tropical climate to quantify changes in glucose concentrations in relation to energy expenditure. Blood glucose concentrations and energy expenditure were continuously monitored with a Guardian® real-time continuous glucose monitoring system (CGMS) and a SenseWear® Pro3 armband (BodyMedia Inc., USA), in a 27-year-old woman with Type 1 diabetes, during her climb up Mount Kinabalu in Borneo (c. 4095 m). Comparative control data from the same person was collected in the UK (temperate climate at sea level) and Singapore (tropical climate at sea level). Maximum physical effort during the climb was < 60% VO(2MAX) (maximal oxygen consumption). Mean daily calorific intakes were 2300 kcal (UK), 2370 kcal (Singapore) and 2274 kcal (Mount Kinabalu), and mean daily insulin doses were 54 U (UK), 40 U (Singapore) and 47 U (Mount Kinabalu). Despite markedly increased energy expenditure during the climb [4202 kcal (Mount Kinabalu) vs. 2948 kcal (UK) and 2662 kcal (Singapore)], mean blood glucose was considerably higher during the trek up Mount Kinabalu [13.2 ± 5.9 mmol/l, vs. 7.9 ± 3.8 mmol/l (UK) and 8.6 ± 4.0 mmol/l (Singapore)]. Marked unexpected hyperglycaemia occurred while trekking on Mount Kinabalu, despite similar calorie consumption and insulin doses to control conditions. Because of the risk of unexpected hyperglycaemia in these conditions, we recommend that patients embarking on similar activity holidays undertake frequent blood glucose monitoring. © 2011 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2011 Diabetes UK.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bland, Arthur S Buddy; Hack, James J; Baker, Ann E

Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL's) Cray XT5 supercomputer, Jaguar, kicked off the era of petascale scientific computing in 2008 with applications that sustained more than a thousand trillion floating point calculations per second - or 1 petaflop. Jaguar continues to grow even more powerful as it helps researchers broaden the boundaries of knowledge in virtually every domain of computational science, including weather and climate, nuclear energy, geosciences, combustion, bioenergy, fusion, and materials science. Their insights promise to broaden our knowledge in areas that are vitally important to the Department of Energy (DOE) and the nation as a whole, particularly energymore » assurance and climate change. The science of the 21st century, however, will demand further revolutions in computing, supercomputers capable of a million trillion calculations a second - 1 exaflop - and beyond. These systems will allow investigators to continue attacking global challenges through modeling and simulation and to unravel longstanding scientific questions. Creating such systems will also require new approaches to daunting challenges. High-performance systems of the future will need to be codesigned for scientific and engineering applications with best-in-class communications networks and data-management infrastructures and teams of skilled researchers able to take full advantage of these new resources. The Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) provides the nation's most powerful open resource for capability computing, with a sustainable path that will maintain and extend national leadership for DOE's Office of Science (SC). The OLCF has engaged a world-class team to support petascale science and to take a dramatic step forward, fielding new capabilities for high-end science. This report highlights the successful delivery and operation of a petascale system and shows how the OLCF fosters application development teams, developing cutting-edge tools and resources for next-generation systems.« less

Toward A Science of Sustainable Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, C.

2016-12-01

Societal need for improved water management and concerns for the long-term sustainability of water resources systems are prominent around the world. The continued susceptibility of society to the harmful effects of hydrologic variability, pervasive concerns related to climate change and the emergent awareness of devastating effects of current practice on aquatic ecosystems all illustrate our limited understanding of how water ought to be managed in a dynamic world. The related challenges of resolving the competition for freshwater among competing uses (so called "nexus" issues) and adapting water resources systems to climate change are prominent examples of the of sustainable water management challenges. In addition, largely untested concepts such as "integrated water resources management" have surfaced as Sustainable Development Goals. In this presentation, we argue that for research to improve water management, and for practice to inspire better research, a new focus is required, one that bridges disciplinary barriers between the water resources research focus on infrastructure planning and management, and the role of human actors, and geophysical sciences community focus on physical processes in the absence of dynamical human response. Examples drawn from climate change adaptation for water resource systems and groundwater management policy provide evidence of initial progress towards a science of sustainable water management that links improved physical understanding of the hydrological cycle with the socioeconomic and ecological understanding of water and societal interactions.

Development of an integrated generic model for multi-scale assessment of the impacts of agro-ecosystems on major ecosystem services in West Africa.

PubMed

Belem, Mahamadou; Saqalli, Mehdi

2017-11-01

This paper presents an integrated model assessing the impacts of climate change, agro-ecosystem and demographic transition patterns on major ecosystem services in West-Africa along a partial overview of economic aspects (poverty reduction, food self-sufficiency and income generation). The model is based on an agent-based model associated with a soil model and multi-scale spatial model. The resulting Model for West-Africa Agro-Ecosystem Integrated Assessment (MOWASIA) is ecologically generic, meaning it is designed for all sudano-sahelian environments but may then be used as an experimentation facility for testing different scenarios combining ecological and socioeconomic dimensions. A case study in Burkina Faso is examined to assess the environmental and economic performances of semi-continuous and continuous farming systems. Results show that the semi-continuous system using organic fertilizer and fallowing practices contribute better to environment preservation and food security than the more economically performant continuous system. In addition, this study showed that farmers heterogeneity could play an important role in agricultural policies planning and assessment. In addition, the results showed that MOWASIA is an effective tool for designing, analysing the impacts of agro-ecosystems. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Should we use seasonnal meteorological ensemble forecasts for hydrological forecasting? A case study for nordic watersheds in Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bazile, Rachel; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Perreault, Luc; Leconte, Robert; Guay, Catherine

2017-04-01

Hydro-electricity is a major source of energy for many countries throughout the world, including Canada. Long lead-time streamflow forecasts are all the more valuable as they help decision making and dam management. Different techniques exist for long-term hydrological forecasting. Perhaps the most well-known is 'Extended Streamflow Prediction' (ESP), which considers past meteorological scenarios as possible, often equiprobable, future scenarios. In the ESP framework, those past-observed meteorological scenarios (climatology) are used in turn as the inputs of a chosen hydrological model to produce ensemble forecasts (one member corresponding to each year in the available database). Many hydropower companies, including Hydro-Québec (province of Quebec, Canada) use variants of the above described ESP system operationally for long-term operation planning. The ESP system accounts for the hydrological initial conditions and for the natural variability of the meteorological variables. However, it cannot consider the current initial state of the atmosphere. Climate models can help remedy this drawback. In the context of a changing climate, dynamical forecasts issued from climate models seem to be an interesting avenue to improve upon the ESP method and could help hydropower companies to adapt their management practices to an evolving climate. Long-range forecasts from climate models can also be helpful for water management at locations where records of past meteorological conditions are short or nonexistent. In this study, we compare 7-month hydrological forecasts obtained from climate model outputs to an ESP system. The ESP system mimics the one used operationally at Hydro-Québec. The dynamical climate forecasts are produced by the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System4. Forecasts quality is assessed using numerical scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the Ignorance score and also graphical tools such as the reliability diagram. This study covers 10 nordic watersheds. We show that forecast performance according to the CRPS varies with lead-time but also with the period of the year. The raw forecasts from the ECMWF System4 display important biases for both temperature and precipitation, which need to be corrected. The linear scaling method is used for this purpose and is found effective. Bias correction improves forecasts performance, especially during the summer when the precipitations are over-estimated. According to the CRPS, bias corrected forecasts from System4 show performances comparable to those of the ESP system. However, the Ignorance score, which penalizes the lack of calibration (under-dispersive forecasts in this case) more severely than the CRPS, provides a different outlook for the comparison of the two systems. In fact, according to the Ignorance score, the ESP system outperforms forecasts based on System4 in most cases. This illustrates that the joint use of several metrics is crucial to assess the quality of a forecasts system thoroughly. Globally, ESP provide reliable forecasts which can be over-dispersed whereas bias corrected ECMWF System4 forecasts are sharper but at the risk of missing events.

Satellite orbit and data sampling requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William

1993-01-01

Climate forcings and feedbacks vary over a wide range of time and space scales. The operation of non-linear feedbacks can couple variations at widely separated time and space scales and cause climatological phenomena to be intermittent. Consequently, monitoring of global, decadal changes in climate requires global observations that cover the whole range of space-time scales and are continuous over several decades. The sampling of smaller space-time scales must have sufficient statistical accuracy to measure the small changes in the forcings and feedbacks anticipated in the next few decades, while continuity of measurements is crucial for unambiguous interpretation of climate change. Shorter records of monthly and regional (500-1000 km) measurements with similar accuracies can also provide valuable information about climate processes, when 'natural experiments' such as large volcanic eruptions or El Ninos occur. In this section existing satellite datasets and climate model simulations are used to test the satellite orbits and sampling required to achieve accurate measurements of changes in forcings and feedbacks at monthly frequency and 1000 km (regional) scale.

An academic approach to climate change emergency preparedness.

PubMed

Trask, Jeffrey A

To achieve effective emergency management and business continuity, all hazards should be considered during the planning and preparedness process. In recent years, several new hazards have attracted the attention of Emergency Management and Business Continuity practitioners. Climate change presents a unique challenge. Practitioners must rely on historical data combined with scientific projections to guide their planning and preparedness efforts. This article examines how an academic institution's emergency management programme can plan successfully for this hazard by focusing on best practices in the area of building cross-departmental and cross-jurisdictional relationships. Examples of scientific data related to the hazard of climate change will be presented along with the latest guidance from the Federal Emergency Management Agency encouraging the planning for future hazards. The article presents a functional exercise in which this hazard was prominently featured, and presents testimony from subject matter experts. Recommendations for emergency management and business continuity programmes are so provided.

Smouldering Fires in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rein, G.

2012-04-01

Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless burning, represent the most persistent type of combustion phenomena and the longest continuously fires on Earth system. Indeed, smouldering mega-fires of peatlands occur with some frequency during the dry session in, for example, Indonesia, Canada, Russia, UK and USA. Smouldering fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the ground and can reach depth >5 m if large cracks, natural piping or channel systems exist. It threatens to release sequestered carbon deep into the soil. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains, weather changes or fire-fighting attempts, and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading deep and over extensive areas. Recent figures at the global scale estimate that average annual greenhouse gas emissions from smouldering fires are equivalent to 15% of man-made emissions. These fires are difficult or impossible to detect with current remote sensing methods because the chemistry is significantly different, their thermal radiation signature is much smaller, and the plume is much less buoyant. These wildfires burn fossil fuels and thus are a carbon-positive fire phenomena. This creates feedbacks in the climate system because soil moisture deficit and self-heating are enchanted under warmer climate scenarios and lead to more frequent fires. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in more frequent Artic fires. Unprecedented permafrost thaw is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to smouldering fires for the fist time since millennia. Although interactions between flaming fires and the Earth system have been a central focus, smouldering fires are as important but have received very little attention. DBut differences with flaming fires are important. This paper reviews the current knowledge on smouldering fires in the Earth system regarding combustion dynamics, damage to the soil, emissions, remote sensing and feedbacks in the climate system.

Physiological responses during continuous work in hot dry and hot humid environments in Indians

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen Gupta, J.; Swamy, Y. V.; Pichan, G.; Dimri, G. P.

1984-06-01

Studies have been conducted on six young healthy heat acclimatised Indians to determine the physiological changes in prolonged continuous work in thermally neutral and in hot dry and hot humid environments. Physiological responses in maximal efforts i.e. Vo2 max, VE max and Cf max were noted. In addition, duration in continuous work at three sub-maximal rate of work in three simulated environments were also noted. Physiological responses like Vo2, VE and Cf were noted every 15 minutes of work. Besides these responses, rectal temperature (Tre), mean skin temperature (Ts) and mean sweat rate were also recorded during continuous work. Results indicated a significant decrease in maximum oxygen uptake capacity (Vo2 max) in heat with no change in maximum exercise ventilation (VE max) and maximum cardiac frequency. However, the fall in Vo2 max was more severe in the hot humid environment than in the hot dry climate. Cardiac frequency at fixed oxygen consumption of 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 l/min was distinctly higher in the hot humid environment than in the hot dry and comfortable temperature. The duration in continuous physical effort in various grades of activities decreased in hot dry environment from that in the-comfortable climate and further decreased significantly in hot humid environment. The highest rate of sweating was observed during work in humid heat. The mean skin temperature (Ts) showed a fall in all the three rates of work in comfortable and hot dry conditions whereas in hot humid environment it showed a linear rise during the progress of work. The rectal temperature on the other hand maintained a near steady state while working at 65 and 82 watts in comfortable and hot dry environments but kept on rising during work in hot humid environment. At the highest work rate of 98 watts, the rectal temperature showed a steady increase even in the hot dry condition. It was thus concluded from the study that a hot humid climate imposes more constraints on the thermoregulatory system during work than in the hot dry condition because of less effective heat dissipation so resulting in reduced tolerance to work.

The Earth System Grid Federation: An Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ananthakrishnan, Rachana; Bell, Gavin; Cinquini, Luca

2013-01-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL,more » GSI and SAML). The ESGF software is developed collaboratively across institutional boundaries and made available to the community as open source. It has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire model output used for the next international assessment report on climate change (IPCC-AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs).« less

The Earth System Grid Federation: An Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geo-Spatial Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cinquini, Luca; Crichton, Daniel; Miller, Neill

2012-01-01

The Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) is a multi-agency, international collaboration that aims at developing the software infrastructure needed to facilitate and empower the study of climate change on a global scale. The ESGF s architecture employs a system of geographically distributed peer nodes, which are independently administered yet united by the adoption of common federation protocols and application programming interfaces (APIs). The cornerstones of its interoperability are the peer-to-peer messaging that is continuously exchanged among all nodes in the federation; a shared architecture and API for search and discovery; and a security infrastructure based on industry standards (OpenID, SSL,more » GSI and SAML). The ESGF software is developed collaboratively across institutional boundaries and made available to the community as open source. It has now been adopted by multiple Earth science projects and allows access to petabytes of geophysical data, including the entire model output used for the next international assessment report on climate change (IPCC-AR5) and a suite of satellite observations (obs4MIPs) and reanalysis data sets (ANA4MIPs).« less

Ground-Water Recharge in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delin, G.N.; Falteisek, J.D.

2007-01-01

'Ground-water recharge' broadly describes the addition of water to the ground-water system. Most water recharging the ground-water system moves relatively rapidly to surface-water bodies and sustains streamflow, lake levels, and wetlands. Over the long term, recharge is generally balanced by discharge to surface waters, to plants, and to deeper parts of the ground-water system. However, this balance can be altered locally as a result of pumping, impervious surfaces, land use, or climate changes that could result in increased or decreased recharge. * Recharge rates to unconfined aquifers in Minnesota typically are about 20-25 percent of precipitation. * Ground-water recharge is least (0-2 inches per year) in the western and northwestern parts of the State and increases to greater than 6 inches per year in the central and eastern parts of the State. * Water-level measurement frequency is important in estimating recharge. Measurements made less frequently than about once per week resulted in as much as a 48 percent underestimation of recharge compared with estimates based on an hourly measurement frequency. * High-quality, long-term, continuous hydrologic and climatic data are important in estimating recharge rates.

The Earth System Grid Federation : an Open Infrastructure for Access to Distributed Geospatial Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cinquini, Luca; Crichton, Daniel; Mattmann, Chris; Harney, John; Shipman, Galen; Wang, Feiyi; Ananthakrishnan, Rachana; Miller, Neill; Denvil, Sebastian; Morgan, Mark;

A Dual-Responsive Nanocomposite toward Climate-Adaptable Solar Modulation for Energy-Saving Smart Windows.

PubMed

Lee, Heng Yeong; Cai, Yufeng; Bi, Shuguang; Liang, Yen Nan; Song, Yujie; Hu, Xiao Matthew

2017-02-22

In this work, a novel fully autonomous photothermotropic material made by hybridization of the poly(N-isopropylacrylamide) (PNIPAM) hydrogel and antimony-tin oxide (ATO) is presented. In this photothermotropic system, the near-infrared (NIR)-absorbing ATO acts as nanoheater to induce the optical switching of the hydrogel. Such a new passive smart window is characterized by excellent NIR shielding, a photothermally activated switching mechanism, enhanced response speed, and solar modulation ability. Systems with 0, 5, 10, and 15 atom % Sb-doped ATO in PNIPAM were investigated, and it was found that a PNIPAM/ATO nanocomposite is able to be photothermally activated. The 10 atom % Sb-doped PNIPAM/ATO exhibits the best response speed and solar modulation ability. Different film thicknesses and ATO contents will affect the response rate and solar modulation ability. Structural stability tests at 15 cycles under continuous exposure to solar irradiation at 1 sun intensity demonstrated the performance stability of such a photothermotropic system. We conclude that such a novel photothermotropic hybrid can be used as a new generation of autonomous passive smart windows for climate-adaptable solar modulation.

The Development of a Long-Term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stackhouse, P.; Perez, R.; Sengupta, M.; Knapp, K.; Cox, Stephen; Mikovitz, J. Colleen; Zhang, T.; Hemker, K.; Schlemmer, J.; Kivalov, S.

2014-01-01

Background: Considering the likelihood of global climatic weather pattern changes and the global competition for energy resources, there is an increasing need to provide improved and continuously updated global Earth surface solar resource information. Toward this end, a project was funded under the NASA Applied Science program involving the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the State University of New York/Albany (SUNY) and the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) to provide NREL with a global long-term advanced global solar mapping production system for improved depiction of historical solar resources and variability and to provide a mechanism for continual updates of solar resource information. This new production system is made possible by the efforts of NOAA and NASA to completely reprocess the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data set that provides satellite visible and infrared radiances together with retrieved cloud and surface properties on a 3-hourly basis beginning from July 1983. The old version of the ISCCP data provided this information for all the world TMs available geosynchronous satellite systems and NOAA TMs AVHRR data sets at a 30 km effective resolution. This new version aims to provide a new and improved satellite calibration at an effective 10 km resolution. Thus, working with SUNY, NASA will develop and test an improved production system that will enable NREL to continually update the Earth TM solar resource. Objective and Methods: In this presentation, we provide a general overview of this project together with samples of the new solar irradiance mapped data products and comparisons to surface measurements at various locations across the world. An assessment of the solar resource values relative to calibration uncertainty and assumptions are presented. Errors resulting assumptions in snow cover and background aerosol amount are described. These uncertainties and the statistics of the agreement between the measurements and new satellite estimates are also reviewed and compared to other solar data sets. Findings and Conclusions: Preliminary results show that insolation values show an overall small bias (less than 1%) with a RMS of 25% relative to surface measurements. Exceptions at certain locations were found and will be discussed relative to the uncertainties identified above. Lastly, we will identify the next steps in the development and improvement of this production system including some accuracy goals in preparation for ultimate delivery to NREL.

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2014-01-01

Landsat Surface Reflectance Climate Data Records (CDRs) are high level Landsat data products that support land surface change studies. Climate Data Records, as defined by the National Research Council, are a time series of measurements with sufficient length, consistency, and continuity to identify climate variability and change. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is using the valuable 40-year Landsat archive to create CDRs that can be used to document changes to Earth’s terrestrial environment.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Hawkins, Ed; Suckling, Emma

2016-04-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Despite available habitat at range edge, yellow-cedar migration is punctuated with a past pulse tied to colder conditions

Treesearch

John Krapek; Paul E. Hennon; David V. D' Amore; Brian Buma

2017-01-01

Aim: To explore the recent (past ~1,000 year) migration history of yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis), a climate-threatened tree, which appears to lag behind its potential climatic niche at a leading northern range edge, and infer its continued migration potential under changing climate. Location:...

Vulnerability of forests of the Midwest and Northeast United States to climate change

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Maria K. Janowiak; Stephen D. Handler; Patricia Butler-Leopold; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Todd A. Ontl; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Forests of the Midwest and Northeast significantly define the character, culture, and economy of this large region but face an uncertain future as the climate continues to change. Forests vary widely across the region, and vulnerabilities are strongly influenced by regional differences in climate impacts and adaptive capacity. Not all forests are vulnerable; longer...

75 FR 42033 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 90-Day Finding on a Petition to List Pinus albicaulis

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-20

... Potential effects of climate change on this species and its habitat. If, after the status review, we... addressed climate change under Factor E, Other Natural or Manmade Factors Affecting Its Continued Existence; however, because the petitioner's assertions regarding the impacts of climate change relate to changes to...

75 FR 12976 - Amendment of Restricted Area R-2204 High and R-2204 Low; Oliktok Point, AK

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-18

... Oliktok, AK, is required for current moored balloon and future climate-related aviation activities. DATES... in support of the proposed rule stressing the importance of continued climate studies at Oliktok... regions to climate change. In 2004, the need to operate an unlighted moored balloon in clouds resulted in...

Modeling of larch forest dynamics under a changing climate in eastern Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Iijima, Y.; Ohta, T.; Kotani, A.; Maximov, T. C.; Hiyama, T.

2017-12-01

According to the projection by an earth system model under RCP8.5 scenario, boreal forest in eastern Siberia (near Yakutsk) is predicted to experience significant changes in climate, in which the mean annual air temperature is projected to be positive and the annual precipitation will be doubled by the end of 21st century. Since the forest in this region is underlain by continuous permafrost, both increasing temperature and precipitation can affect the dynamics of forest through the soil water processes. To investigate such effects, we adopted a newly developed terrestrial ecosystem dynamics model named S-TEDy (SEIB-DGVM-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics model), which mechanistically simulates "the way of life" of each individual tree and resulting tree mortality under the future climate conditions. This model was first developed for the simulation of the dynamics of a tropical rainforest in the Borneo Island, and successfully reproduced higher mortality of large trees due to a prolonged drought induced by ENSO event of 1997-1998. To apply this model to a larch forest in eastern Siberia, we are developing a soil submodel to consider the effect of thawing-freezing processes. We will present a simulation results using the future climate projection.

Extreme rainfall, vulnerability and risk: a continental-scale assessment for South America.

PubMed

Vörösmarty, Charles J; Bravo de Guenni, Lelys; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Pellerin, Brian; Bjerklie, David; Cardoso, Manoel; D'Almeida, Cassiano; Green, Pamela; Colon, Lilybeth

2013-11-13

Extreme weather continues to preoccupy society as a formidable public safety concern bearing huge economic costs. While attention has focused on global climate change and how it could intensify key elements of the water cycle such as precipitation and river discharge, it is the conjunction of geophysical and socioeconomic forces that shapes human sensitivity and risks to weather extremes. We demonstrate here the use of high-resolution geophysical and population datasets together with documentary reports of rainfall-induced damage across South America over a multi-decadal, retrospective time domain (1960-2000). We define and map extreme precipitation hazard, exposure, affectedpopulations, vulnerability and risk, and use these variables to analyse the impact of floods as a water security issue. Geospatial experiments uncover major sources of risk from natural climate variability and population growth, with change in climate extremes bearing a minor role. While rural populations display greatest relative sensitivity to extreme rainfall, urban settings show the highest rates of increasing risk. In the coming decades, rapid urbanization will make South American cities the focal point of future climate threats but also an opportunity for reducing vulnerability, protecting lives and sustaining economic development through both traditional and ecosystem-based disaster risk management systems.

Building an Evidence-Driven Child Welfare Workforce: A University–Agency Partnership

PubMed Central

Lery, Bridgette; Wiegmann, Wendy; Berrick, Jill Duerr

2016-01-01

The federal government increasingly expects child welfare systems to be more responsive to the needs of their local populations, connect strategies to results, and use continuous quality improvement (CQI) to accomplish these goals. A method for improving decision making, CQI relies on an inflow of high-quality data, up-to-date research evidence, and a robust organizational structure and climate that supports the deliberate use of evidence for decision making. This article describes an effort to build and support these essential system components through one public-private child welfare agency–university partnership. PMID:27429534

An Algorithm For Climate-Quality Atmospheric Profiling Continuity From EOS Aqua To Suomi-NPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncet, J. L.

2015-12-01

We will present results from an algorithm that is being developed to produce climate-quality atmospheric profiling earth system data records (ESDRs) for application to hyperspectral sounding instrument data from Suomi-NPP, EOS Aqua, and other spacecraft. The current focus is on data from the S-NPP Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) instruments as well as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) on EOS Aqua. The algorithm development at Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) has common heritage with the optimal estimation (OE) algorithm operationally processing S-NPP data in the Interface Data Processing Segment (IDPS), but the ESDR algorithm has a flexible, modular software structure to support experimentation and collaboration and has several features adapted to the climate orientation of ESDRs. Data record continuity benefits from the fact that the same algorithm can be applied to different sensors, simply by providing suitable configuration and data files. The radiative transfer component uses an enhanced version of optimal spectral sampling (OSS) with updated spectroscopy, treatment of emission that is not in local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE), efficiency gains with "global" optimal sampling over all channels, and support for channel selection. The algorithm is designed for adaptive treatment of clouds, with capability to apply "cloud clearing" or simultaneous cloud parameter retrieval, depending on conditions. We will present retrieval results demonstrating the impact of a new capability to perform the retrievals on sigma or hybrid vertical grid (as opposed to a fixed pressure grid), which particularly affects profile accuracy over land with variable terrain height and with sharp vertical structure near the surface. In addition, we will show impacts of alternative treatments of regularization of the inversion. While OE algorithms typically implement regularization by using background estimates from climatological or numerical forecast data, those sources are problematic for climate applications due to the imprint of biases from past climate analyses or from model error.

Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

2012-01-01

Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

Projected changes in the future distribution and production of sessile oak forests near the xeric limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre; Veperdi, Gábor

2017-04-01

As a result of regional climate change, most European countries are experiencing an increase in mean annual temperature and CO2 concentration and a decrease in mean annual precipitation. In low-elevation areas in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is a limiting factor, the projected climate change threatens the health, production, and potential distribution of forest ecosystems. The intensive summer droughts and commonly occurring extreme weather events create negative influences that cause health declines, changes in yield potential, and tree mortality. Due to the observed damages, attention has been focused on these problems. The impacts of climatic extremes cause difficulties in forest management; these difficulties occur more frequently in Hungary, which is a region that is the most sensitive to climatic extremes. Regional climate model simulations project that the frequency of extremely high temperatures and long-term dry periods will increase; both of these factors have negative effects on future tree species distribution and production. Thus, the aim of our study is to utilize the sessile oak (Quercus petraea) as a climate indicator tree species to investigate potential future distribution and estimate changes in growth trends. For future spatial distribution, we used the Fuzzy membership distribution model in a new Decision Support System (DSS) which was developed for the Hungarian forestry and agricultural sectors. Through study techniques we can employ DSS, which contains various environmental layers (topography, vegetation, past and projected future climate, soils, and hydrology), to create probability distribution maps. The results, based on 12 regional climate model simulations (www.ensembles-eu.org), show that the area of sessile oak forests is shrinking continuously and will continue to do so to the end of the 21st century. For future production estimations, we analysed intensive long-term growth monitoring network plots that were established in 1993. We calculated production capacity on the basis of age and height; we then compared these to past climate conditions to discover connections between climate, site conditions, and production. We estimated future growth tendencies for three different time periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100). Results show that the most vulnerable region is the south-western part of Hungary where the projected production capacity may decrease by 26% for the time period 2071-2100. The impacts of climate change may be milder in the north-eastern part of Hungary where a 19% decrease in the production capacity of sessile oak forests is estimated. These investigations and results are important for sustainable forest management and help define climate change adaptation strategies in forestry. Keywords: climate change impacts, distribution modelling, production capacity Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the ÚNKP-16-3-3 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry of Human Capacities and the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Solar influences on global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

Monitoring of the Sun and the Earth has yielded new knowledge essential to this debate. There is now no doubt that the total radiative energy from the Sun that heats the Earth's surface changes over decadal time scales as a consequence of solar activity. Observations indicate as well that changes in ultraviolet radiation and energetic particles from the Sun, also connected with the solar activity, modulate the layer of ozone that protects the biosphere from the solar ultraviolet radiation. This report reassesses solar influences on global change in the light of this new knowledge of solar and atmospheric variability. Moreover, the report considers climate change to be encompassed within the broader concept of global change; thus the biosphere is recognized to be part of a larger, coupled Earth system. Implementing a program to continuously monitor solar irradiance over the next several decades will provide the opportunity to estimate solar influences on global change, assuming continued maintenance of observations of climate and other potential forcing mechanisms. In the lower atmosphere, an increase in solar radiation is expected to cause global warming. In the stratosphere, however, the two effects produce temperature changes of opposite sign. A monitoring program that would augment long term observations of tropospheric parameters with similar observations of stratospheric parameters could separate these diverse climate perturbations and perhaps isolate a greenhouse footprint of climate change. Monitoring global change in the troposphere is a key element of all facets of the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), not just of the study of solar influences on global change. The need for monitoring the stratosphere is also important for global change research in its own right because of the stratospheric ozone layer.

Lumped parameter, isotopic model simulations of closed-basin lake response to drought in the Pacific Northwest and implications for lake sediment oxygen isotope records.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinman, B. A.; Rosenmeier, M.; Abbott, M.

2008-12-01

The economy of the Pacific Northwest relies heavily on water resources from the drought-prone Columbia River and its tributaries, as well as the many lakes and reservoirs of the region. Proper management of these water resources requires a thorough understanding of local drought histories that extends well beyond the instrumental record of the twentieth century, a time frame too short to capture the full range of drought variability in the Pacific Northwest. Here we present a lumped parameter, mass-balance model that provides insight into the influence of hydroclimatological changes on two small, closed-basin systems located in north- central Washington. Steady state model simulations of lake water oxygen isotope ratios using modern climate and catchment parameter datasets demonstrate a strong sensitivity to both the amount and timing of precipitation, and to changes in summertime relative humidity, particularly at annual and decadal time scales. Model tests also suggest that basin hypsography can have a significant impact on lake water oxygen isotope variations, largely through surface area to volume and consequent evaporative flux to volume ratio changes in response to drought and pluvial sequences. Additional simulations using input parameters derived from both on-site and National Climatic Data Center historical climate datasets accurately approximate three years of continuous lake observations (seasonal water sampling and continuous lake level monitoring) and twentieth century oxygen isotope ratios in sediment core authigenic carbonate recovered from the lakes. Results from these model simulations suggest that small, closed-basin lakes in north-central Washington are highly sensitive to changes in the drought-related climate variables, and that long (8000 year), high resolution records of quantitative changes in precipitation and evaporation are obtainable from sediment cores recovered from water bodies of the Pacific Northwest.

Preface: photosynthesis and hydrogen energy research for sustainability.

PubMed

Tomo, Tatsuya; Allakhverdiev, Suleyman I

2017-09-01

Energy supply, climate change, and global food security are among the main chalenges facing humanity in the twenty-first century. Despite global energy demand is continuing to increase, the availability of low cost energy is decreasing. Together with the urgent problem of climate change due to CO 2 release from the combustion of fossil fuels, there is a strong requirement of developing the clean and renewable energy system for the hydrogen production. Solar fuel, biofuel, and hydrogen energy production gained unlimited possibility and feasibility due to understanding of the detailed photosynthetic system structures. This special issue contains selected papers on photosynthetic and biomimetic hydrogen production presented at the International Conference "Photosynthesis Research for Sustainability-2016", that was held in Pushchino (Russia), during June 19-25, 2016, with the sponsorship of the International Society of Photosynthesis Research (ISPR) and of the International Association for Hydrogen Energy (IAHE). This issue is intended to provide recent information on the photosynthetic and biohydrogen production to our readers.

The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimized Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, G. D.; Menary, M. B.; Mecking, J. V.; Moat, B. I.; Johns, W. E.; Andrews, M. B.; Rayner, D.; Smeed, D. A.

2017-03-01

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations.