Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

PubMed Central

Diamond, Sarah E.; Nichols, Lauren M.; Pelini, Shannon L.; Penick, Clint A.; Barber, Grace W.; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R.; Ellison, Aaron M.; Sanders, Nathan J.; Gotelli, Nicholas J.

2016-01-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable. PMID:27819044

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E; Nichols, Lauren M; Pelini, Shannon L; Penick, Clint A; Barber, Grace W; Cahan, Sara Helms; Dunn, Robert R; Ellison, Aaron M; Sanders, Nathan J; Gotelli, Nicholas J

2016-10-01

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

Controlled warming effects on wheat growth and yield: field measurements and modeling

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate warming may raise wheat yields in cooler climates and lower them in warmer. To understand these contrasting effects, infrared heating lamps were used to warm irrigated spring wheat by 1.5 'C (day) and 3.0 'C (night) above unheated controls during different times of the year at Maricopa, AZ. ...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsch, A. L.; Wilhelm, M.; Davin, E. L.; Thiery, W.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-02-01

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C is an imminent challenge for humanity. However, even if this global target can be met, some regions are still likely to experience substantial warming relative to others. Using idealized global climate simulations, we examine the potential of land management options in affecting regional climate, with a focus on crop albedo enhancement and irrigation (climate-effective land management). The implementation is performed over all crop regions globally to provide an upper bound. We find that the implementation of both crop albedo enhancement and irrigation can reduce hot temperature extremes by more than 2°C in North America, Eurasia, and India over the 21st century relative to a scenario without management application. The efficacy of crop albedo enhancement scales with the magnitude, where a cooling response exceeding 0.5°C for hot temperature extremes was achieved with a large (i.e., ≥0.08) change in crop albedo. Regional differences were attributed to the surface energy balance response with temperature changes mostly explained by latent heat flux changes for irrigation and net shortwave radiation changes for crop albedo enhancement. However, limitations do exist, where we identify warming over the winter months when climate-effective land management is temporarily suspended. This was associated with persistent cloud cover that enhances longwave warming. It cannot be confirmed if the magnitude of this feedback is reproducible in other climate models. Our results overall demonstrate that regional warming of hot extremes in our climate model can be partially mitigated when using an idealized treatment of climate-effective land management.

Predicted effects of climate warming on the distribution of 50 stream fishes in Wisconsin, USA.

PubMed

Lyons, J; Stewart, J S; Mitro, M

2010-11-01

Summer air and stream water temperatures are expected to rise in the state of Wisconsin, U.S.A., over the next 50 years. To assess potential climate warming effects on stream fishes, predictive models were developed for 50 common fish species using classification-tree analysis of 69 environmental variables in a geographic information system. Model accuracy was 56·0-93·5% in validation tests. Models were applied to all 86 898 km of stream in the state under four different climate scenarios: current conditions, limited climate warming (summer air temperatures increase 1° C and water 0·8° C), moderate warming (air 3° C and water 2·4° C) and major warming (air 5° C and water 4° C). With climate warming, 23 fishes were predicted to decline in distribution (three to extirpation under the major warming scenario), 23 to increase and four to have no change. Overall, declining species lost substantially more stream length than increasing species gained. All three cold-water and 16 cool-water fishes and four of 31 warm-water fishes were predicted to decline, four warm-water fishes to remain the same and 23 warm-water fishes to increase in distribution. Species changes were predicted to be most dramatic in small streams in northern Wisconsin that currently have cold to cool summer water temperatures and are dominated by cold-water and cool-water fishes, and least in larger and warmer streams and rivers in southern Wisconsin that are currently dominated by warm-water fishes. Results of this study suggest that even small increases in summer air and water temperatures owing to climate warming will have major effects on the distribution of stream fishes in Wisconsin. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Recurrent sublethal warming reduces embryonic survival, inhibits juvenile growth, and alters species distribution projections under climate change.

PubMed

Carlo, Michael A; Riddell, Eric A; Levy, Ofir; Sears, Michael W

2018-01-01

The capacity to tolerate climate change often varies across ontogeny in organisms with complex life cycles. Recently developed species distribution models incorporate traits across life stages; however, these life-cycle models primarily evaluate effects of lethal change. Here, we examine impacts of recurrent sublethal warming on development and survival in ecological projections of climate change. We reared lizard embryos in the laboratory under temperature cycles that simulated contemporary conditions and warming scenarios. We also artificially warmed natural nests to mimic laboratory treatments. In both cases, recurrent sublethal warming decreased embryonic survival and hatchling sizes. Incorporating survivorship results into a mechanistic species distribution model reduced annual survival by up to 24% compared to models that did not incorporate sublethal warming. Contrary to models without sublethal effects, our model suggests that modest increases in developmental temperatures influence species ranges due to effects on survivorship. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation.

PubMed

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-02-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate.

Interactions with successional stage and nutrient status determines the life-form-specific effects of increased soil temperature on boreal forest floor vegetation

PubMed Central

Hedwall, Per-Ola; Skoglund, Jerry; Linder, Sune

2015-01-01

The boreal forest is one of the largest terrestrial biomes and plays a key role for the global carbon balance and climate. The forest floor vegetation has a strong influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles of the forests and is sensitive to changes in temperature conditions and nutrient availability. Additionally, the effects of climate warming on forest floor vegetation have been suggested to be moderated by the tree layer. Data on the effects of soil warming on forest floor vegetation from the boreal forest are, however, very scarce. We studied the effects on the forest floor vegetation in a long-term (18 years) soil warming and fertilization experiment in a Norway spruce stand in northern Sweden. During the first 9 years, warming favored early successional species such as grasses and forbs at the expense of dwarf shrubs and bryophytes in unfertilized stands, while the effects were smaller after fertilization. Hence, warming led to significant changes in species composition and an increase in species richness in the open canopy nutrient limited forest. After another 9 years of warming and increasing tree canopy closure, most of the initial effects had ceased, indicating an interaction between forest succession and warming. The only remaining effect of warming was on the abundance of bryophytes, which contrary to the initial phase was strongly favored by warming. We propose that the suggested moderating effects of the tree layer are specific to plant life-form and conclude that the successional phase of the forest may have a considerable impact on the effects of climate change on forest floor vegetation and its feedback effects on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, and thus on the climate. PMID:25750720

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Björk, Robert G; Bjorkman, Anne D; Callaghan, Terry V; Collier, Laura Siegwart; Cooper, Elisabeth J; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Day, Thomas A; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Grétarsdóttir, Járngerður; Harte, John; Hermanutz, Luise; Hik, David S; Hofgaard, Annika; Jarrad, Frith; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Keuper, Frida; Klanderud, Kari; Klein, Julia A; Koh, Saewan; Kudo, Gaku; Lang, Simone I; Loewen, Val; May, Jeremy L; Mercado, Joel; Michelsen, Anders; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Pieper, Sara; Post, Eric; Rixen, Christian; Robinson, Clare H; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Shaver, Gaius R; Stenström, Anna; Tolvanen, Anne; Totland, Orjan; Troxler, Tiffany; Wahren, Carl-Henrik; Webber, Patrick J; Welker, Jeffery M; Wookey, Philip A

2012-02-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation - and associated ecosystem consequences - have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Irrigation enhances local warming with greater nocturnal warming effects than daytime cooling effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xing; Jeong, Su-Jong

2018-02-01

To meet the growing demand for food, land is being managed to be more productive using agricultural intensification practices, such as the use of irrigation. Understanding the specific environmental impacts of irrigation is a critical part of using it as a sustainable way to provide food security. However, our knowledge of irrigation effects on climate is still limited to daytime effects. This is a critical issue to define the effects of irrigation on warming related to greenhouse gases (GHGs). This study shows that irrigation led to an increasing temperature (0.002 °C year-1) by enhancing nighttime warming (0.009 °C year-1) more than daytime cooling (-0.007 °C year-1) during the dry season from 1961-2004 over the North China Plain (NCP), which is one of largest irrigated areas in the world. By implementing irrigation processes in regional climate model simulations, the consistent warming effect of irrigation on nighttime temperatures over the NCP was shown to match observations. The intensive nocturnal warming is attributed to energy storage in the wetter soil during the daytime, which contributed to the nighttime surface warming. Our results suggest that irrigation could locally amplify the warming related to GHGs, and this effect should be taken into account in future climate change projections.

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE PAGES

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; ...

2016-02-20

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosolmore » effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.« less

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Marshall, David J; McQuaid, Christopher D; Williams, Gray A

2010-10-23

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky-eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail's body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail's upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.

Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Isoprene Emission: Diversity Matters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Lerdau, M.

2016-12-01

Many abiotic and biotic factors influence volatile organic compound (VOC) production and emission by plants; for example, climate warming is widely projected to enhance VOC emissions by stimulating their biosynthesis. The species-dependent nature of VOC production by plants indicates that changes in species abundances may play an important role in determining VOC production and emission at the ecosystem scale. To date, however, the role of species abundances in affecting VOC emissions has not been well studied. We examine the role of forest systems as sources of VOC's in terms of how species diversity and abundance influence isoprene emission under climate warming by using an individual-based forest VOC emission model—UVAFME-VOC 1.0—that can explicitly simulate forest compositional and structural change and VOC production/emission at the individual and canopy scales. We simulate isoprene emissions under two warming scenarios (warming by 2 and 4 °C) for temperate deciduous forests of the southeastern United States, where the dominant isoprene-emitting species are oaks (Quercus). The simulations show that, contrary to previous expectations, a warming by 2 °C does not affect isoprene emissions, while a further warming by 4 °C causes a large reduction of isoprene emissions. Interestingly, climate warming can directly enhance isoprene emission and simultaneously indirectly reduce it by lowering the abundance of isoprene-emitting species. Under gradual continuous warming, the indirect effect outweighs the direct effect, thus reducing overall forest isoprene emission. This modelling study shows that climate warming does not necessarily stimulate ecosystem VOC emissions and, more generally, that ecosystem diversity and composition can play a significant role in determining vegetation VOC emission capacity. Future earth system models and climate-chemistry models should better represent species diversity in projecting climate-air quality feedbacks and making management policy recommendations.

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.

Modeling aspen responses to climatic warming and insect defoliation in western Canada

Treesearch

E. H. Ted Hogg

2001-01-01

Effects of climate change at three aspen sites in Saskatchewan were explored using a climate-driven model that includes insect defoliation. A simulated warming of 4-5 °C caused complete mortality due to drought at all three sites. A simulated warming of 2-2.5 °C caused complete mortality of aspen at the parkland site, while aspen growth at two boreal sites showed...

Southern Ocean warming due to human influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fyfe, John C.

2006-10-01

I show that the latest series of climate models reproduce the observed mid-depth Southern Ocean warming since the 1950s if they include time-varying changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, sulphate aerosols and volcanic aerosols in the Earth's atmosphere. The remarkable agreement between observations and state-of-the art climate models suggests significant human influence on Southern Ocean temperatures. I also show that climate models that do not include volcanic aerosols produce mid-depth Southern Ocean warming that is nearly double that produced by climate models that do include volcanic aerosols. This implies that the full effect of human-induced warming of the Southern Ocean may yet to be realized.

Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

2017-09-01

Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

Warming effects on greenhouse gas fluxes in peatlands are modulated by vegetation composition.

PubMed

Ward, Susan E; Ostle, Nicholas J; Oakley, Simon; Quirk, Helen; Henrys, Peter A; Bardgett, Richard D

2013-10-01

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas feedbacks to climate change represents a major global challenge. Most research has focused on direct effects of warming, without considering how concurrent changes in plant communities may alter such effects. Here, we combined vegetation manipulations with warming to investigate their interactive effects on greenhouse gas emissions from peatland. We found that although warming consistently increased respiration, the effect on net ecosystem CO2 exchange depended on vegetation composition. The greatest increase in CO2 sink strength after warming was when shrubs were present, and the greatest decrease when graminoids were present. CH4 was more strongly controlled by vegetation composition than by warming, with largest emissions from graminoid communities. Our results show that plant community composition is a significant modulator of greenhouse gas emissions and their response to warming, and suggest that vegetation change could alter peatland carbon sink strength under future climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation

PubMed Central

Bala, G.; Caldeira, K.; Wickett, M.; Phillips, T. J.; Lobell, D. B.; Delire, C.; Mirin, A.

2007-01-01

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO2 to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate. PMID:17420463

Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation.

PubMed

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M; Phillips, T J; Lobell, D B; Delire, C; Mirin, A

2007-04-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO(2) to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These simulations were performed by using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has a net cooling influence on Earth's climate, because the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. Although these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.

Combined Climate and Carbon-Cycle Effects of Large-Scale Deforestation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bala, G; Caldeira, K; Wickett, M

2006-10-17

The prevention of deforestation and promotion of afforestation have often been cited as strategies to slow global warming. Deforestation releases CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere, which exerts a warming influence on Earth's climate. However, biophysical effects of deforestation, which include changes in land surface albedo, evapotranspiration, and cloud cover also affect climate. Here we present results from several large-scale deforestation experiments performed with a three-dimensional coupled global carbon-cycle and climate model. These are the first such simulations performed using a fully three-dimensional model representing physical and biogeochemical interactions among land, atmosphere, and ocean. We find that global-scale deforestation has amore » net cooling influence on Earth's climate, since the warming carbon-cycle effects of deforestation are overwhelmed by the net cooling associated with changes in albedo and evapotranspiration. Latitude-specific deforestation experiments indicate that afforestation projects in the tropics would be clearly beneficial in mitigating global-scale warming, but would be counterproductive if implemented at high latitudes and would offer only marginal benefits in temperate regions. While these results question the efficacy of mid- and high-latitude afforestation projects for climate mitigation, forests remain environmentally valuable resources for many reasons unrelated to climate.« less

Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor.

PubMed

Yu, Shaocai; Alapaty, Kiran; Mathur, Rohit; Pleim, Jonathan; Zhang, Yuanhang; Nolte, Chris; Eder, Brian; Foley, Kristen; Nagashima, Tatsuya

2014-11-06

Aerosols can influence the climate indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and/or ice nuclei, thereby modifying cloud optical properties. In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor. A global coupled climate model reveals that the observed "warming hole" can be produced only when the aerosol fields are simulated with a reasonable degree of accuracy as this is necessary for accurate simulation of SWCF over the region. These results provide compelling evidence of the role of the aerosol indirect effect in cooling regional climate on the Earth. Our results reaffirm that LWCF can warm both winter Tmax and Tmin.

Extreme Warming Challenges Sentinel Status of Kelp Forests as Indicators of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, R. J.; Reed, D.; Washburn, L.; Rassweiler, A.; Bell, T. W.; Harrer, S.

2016-12-01

The ecological effects of global warming are expected to be large, but are proving difficult and costly to measure. This has led to a growing interest in using sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems, raising awareness of the importance of verifying that such conservation shortcuts have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and considered sensitive to warming. Here we show that giant kelp did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite its expected vulnerability. Fluctuations in the biomass of giant kelp, understory algae, invertebrates and fish remained within historical ranges despite 34 months of above average temperatures and below average nutrients. Sea stars and sea urchins were exceptions, plummeting due to disease outbreaks linked to the warming. Our results challenge the IPCC predictions about the vulnerability of kelp-dominated systems to extreme warming events and question their use as early indicators of climate change. The resilience of giant kelp to unprecedented warming not only questions our understanding of kelp ecology, but exposes the risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean

PubMed Central

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C.; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-01-01

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean–atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback. PMID:23922393

Sea surface height evidence for long-term warming effects of tropical cyclones on the ocean.

PubMed

Mei, Wei; Primeau, François; McWilliams, James C; Pasquero, Claudia

2013-09-17

Tropical cyclones have been hypothesized to influence climate by pumping heat into the ocean, but a direct measure of this warming effect is still lacking. We quantified cyclone-induced ocean warming by directly monitoring the thermal expansion of water in the wake of cyclones, using satellite-based sea surface height data that provide a unique way of tracking the changes in ocean heat content on seasonal and longer timescales. We find that the long-term effect of cyclones is to warm the ocean at a rate of 0.32 ± 0.15 PW between 1993 and 2009, i.e., ∼23 times more efficiently per unit area than the background equatorial warming, making cyclones potentially important modulators of the climate by affecting heat transport in the ocean-atmosphere system. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that the rate of warming increases with cyclone intensity. This, together with a predicted shift in the distribution of cyclones toward higher intensities as climate warms, suggests the ocean will get even warmer, possibly leading to a positive feedback.

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE PAGES

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari; ...

2015-10-28

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

US major crops’ uncertain climate change risks and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wing, Ian Sue; Monier, Erwan; Stern, Ari

In this study, we estimate the costs of climate change to US agriculture, and associated potential benefits of abating greenhouse gas emissions. Five major crops' yield responses to climatic variation are modeled empirically, and the results combined with climate projections for a no-policy, high-warming future, as well as moderate and stringent mitigation scenarios. Unabated warming reduces yields of wheat and soybeans by 2050, and cotton by 2100, but moderate warming increases yields of all crops except wheat. Yield changes are monetized using the results of economic simulations within an integrated climate-economy modeling framework. Uncontrolled warming's economic effects on major cropsmore » are slightly positive—annual benefits <$4 B. These are amplified by emission reductions, but subject to diminishing returns—by 2100 reaching $17 B under moderate mitigation, but only $7 B with stringent mitigation. Costs and benefits are sensitive to irreducible uncertainty about the fertilization effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, without which unabated warming incurs net costs of up to $18 B, generating benefits to moderate (stringent) mitigation as large as $26 B ($20 B).« less

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America

PubMed Central

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-01-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period – a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI – high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments. PMID:24757012

Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R

2009-05-22

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.

The Response of Phanerozoic Surface Temperature to Variations in Atmospheric Oxygen Concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, R. C.; Britt, A. V.; Chen, H.; Kasting, J. F.; Catling, D. C.

2016-12-01

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the mid-Cretaceous (94-100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2, so that surface temperature increases by 2.1 K with low oxygen. Here, we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedbacks) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines, and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10% - 35% by volume), and the Poulsen et al. (2016) results appear to be largely driven by cloud feedbacks in their model. Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

The response of Phanerozoic surface temperature to variations in atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, Rebecca C.; Britt, Amber V.; Chen, Howard; Kasting, James F.; Catling, David C.

2016-09-01

Recently, Poulsen et al. (2015) suggested that O2 has played a major role in climate forcing during the Phanerozoic. Specifically, they argued that decreased O2 levels during the Cenomanian stage of the middle Cretaceous (94-100 Ma) could help explain the extremely warm climate during that time. The postulated warming mechanism involves decreased Rayleigh scattering by a thinner atmosphere, which reduces the planetary albedo and allows greater surface warming. This warming effect is then amplified by cloud feedbacks within their 3-D climate model. This increase in shortwave surface forcing, in their calculations, exceeds any decrease in the greenhouse effect caused by decreased O2. Here we use a 1-D radiative-convective climate model (with no cloud feedback) to check their results. We also include a self-consistent calculation of the change in atmospheric ozone and its effect on climate. Our results are opposite to those of Poulsen et al.: we find that the climate warms by 1.4 K at 35% O2 concentrations as a result of increased pressure broadening of CO2 and H2O absorption lines and cools by 0.8 K at 10% O2 as a result of decreased pressure broadening. The surface temperature changes are only about 1 K either way, though, for reasonable variations in Phanerozoic O2 concentrations (10%-35% by volume). Hence, it seems unlikely that changes in atmospheric O2 account for the warm climate of the Cenomanian. Other factors, such as a higher-than-expected sensitivity of climate to increased CO2 concentrations, may be required to obtain agreement with the paleoclimate data.

How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions?

PubMed

Hegland, Stein Joar; Nielsen, Anders; Lázaro, Amparo; Bjerknes, Anne-Line; Totland, Ørjan

2009-02-01

Climate warming affects the phenology, local abundance and large-scale distribution of plants and pollinators. Despite this, there is still limited knowledge of how elevated temperatures affect plant-pollinator mutualisms and how changed availability of mutualistic partners influences the persistence of interacting species. Here we review the evidence of climate warming effects on plants and pollinators and discuss how their interactions may be affected by increased temperatures. The onset of flowering in plants and first appearance dates of pollinators in several cases appear to advance linearly in response to recent temperature increases. Phenological responses to climate warming may therefore occur at parallel magnitudes in plants and pollinators, although considerable variation in responses across species should be expected. Despite the overall similarities in responses, a few studies have shown that climate warming may generate temporal mismatches among the mutualistic partners. Mismatches in pollination interactions are still rarely explored and their demographic consequences are largely unknown. Studies on multi-species plant-pollinator assemblages indicate that the overall structure of pollination networks probably are robust against perturbations caused by climate warming. We suggest potential ways of studying warming-caused mismatches and their consequences for plant-pollinator interactions, and highlight the strengths and limitations of such approaches.

Dependence of Arctic climate on the latitudinal position of stationary waves and to high-latitudes surface warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, Yechul; Kang, Sarah M.; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-12-01

Previous studies suggest large uncertainties in the stationary wave response under global warming. Here, we investigate how the Arctic climate responds to changes in the latitudinal position of stationary waves, and to high-latitudes surface warming that mimics the effect of Arctic sea ice loss under global warming. To generate stationary waves in an atmospheric model coupled to slab ocean, a series of experiments is performed where the thermal forcing with a zonal wavenumber-2 (with zero zonal-mean) is prescribed at the surface at different latitude bands in the Northern Hemisphere. When the stationary waves are generated in the subtropics, the cooling response dominates over the warming response in the lower troposphere due to cloud radiative effects. Then, the low-level baroclinicity is reduced in the subtropics, which gives rise to a poleward shift of the eddy driven jet, thereby inducing substantial cooling in the northern high latitudes. As the stationary waves are progressively generated at higher latitudes, the zonal-mean climate state gradually becomes more similar to the integration with no stationary waves. These differences in the mean climate affect the Arctic climate response to high-latitudes surface warming. Additional surface heating over the Arctic is imposed to the reference climates in which the stationary waves are located at different latitude bands. When the stationary waves are positioned at lower latitudes, the eddy driven jet is located at higher latitude, closer to the prescribed Arctic heating. As baroclinicity is more effectively perturbed, the jet shifts more equatorward that accompanies a larger reduction in the poleward eddy transport of heat and momentum. A stronger eddy-induced descending motion creates greater warming over the Arctic. Our study calls for a more accurate simulation of the present-day stationary wave pattern to enhance the predictability of the Arctic warming response in a changing climate.

Understanding recent climate change.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C

2010-02-01

The Earth's atmosphere has a natural greenhouse effect, without which the global mean surface temperature would be about 33 degrees C lower and life would not be possible. Human activities have increased atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases in trace amounts. This has enhanced the greenhouse effect, resulting in surface warming. Were it not for the partly offsetting effects of increased aerosol concentrations, the increase in global mean surface temperature over the past 100 years would be larger than observed. Continued surface warming through the 21st century is inevitable and will likely have widespread ecological impacts. The magnitude and rate of warming for the global average will be largely dictated by the strength and direction of climate feedbacks, thermal inertia of the oceans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions, and aerosol concentrations. Because of regional expressions of climate feedbacks, changes in atmospheric circulation, and a suite of other factors, the magnitude and rate of warming and changes in other key climate elements, such as precipitation, will not be uniform across the planet. For example, due to loss of its floating sea-ice cover, the Arctic will warm the most.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Aerosol reductions could dominate regional climate responses in low GHG emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S.; Forster, P.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S. M.; Schleussner, C. F.

2017-12-01

Limiting global warming to current political goals requires strong, rapid mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline sharply, due to co-emission with greenhouse gases, and future measures to improve air quality. As the net climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained, predicting the impact of strong aerosol emission reductions remains challenging. Here we investigate the isolated and compound climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic emissions of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and SO2, and moderate, near term GHG dominated global warming, using four coupled climate models. As the dominating effect of aerosol emission reduction is a removal of cooling from sulphur, the resulting climate impacts amplify those of GHG induced warming. BC emissions contribute little to reducing surface warming, but have stronger regional impacts. For the major aerosol emission regions, extreme weather indices are more sensitive to aerosol removal than to GHG increases, per degree of surface warming. East Asia in particular stands out, mainly due to the high present regional aerosol emissions. We show how present climate models indicate that future regional climate change will depend strongly on changes in loading and distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere, in addition to surface temperature change.

Climate warming promotes species diversity, but with greater taxonomic redundancy, in complex environments

PubMed Central

Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Purschke, Oliver; Ciobanu, Marcel; Cowles, Jane; Isbell, Forest; Wragg, Peter D.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2017-01-01

Climate warming is predicted to alter species interactions, which could potentially lead to extinction events. However, there is an ongoing debate whether the effects of warming on biodiversity may be moderated by biodiversity itself. We tested warming effects on soil nematodes, one of the most diverse and abundant metazoans in terrestrial ecosystems, along a gradient of environmental complexity created by a gradient of plant species richness. Warming increased nematode species diversity in complex (16-species mixtures) plant communities (by ~36%) but decreased it in simple (monocultures) plant communities (by ~39%) compared to ambient temperature. Further, warming led to higher levels of taxonomic relatedness in nematode communities across all levels of plant species richness. Our results highlight both the need for maintaining species-rich plant communities to help offset detrimental warming effects and the inability of species-rich plant communities to maintain nematode taxonomic distinctness when warming occur. PMID:28740868

Climate-induced warming of lakes can be either amplified or suppressed by trends in water clarity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Kevin C.; Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.

2016-01-01

Climate change is rapidly warming aquatic ecosystems including lakes and reservoirs. However, variability in lake characteristics can modulate how lakes respond to climate. Water clarity is especially important both because it influences the depth range over which heat is absorbed, and because it is changing in many lakes. Here, we show that simulated long-term water clarity trends influence how both surface and bottom water temperatures of lakes and reservoirs respond to climate change. Clarity changes can either amplify or suppress climate-induced warming, depending on lake depth and the direction of clarity change. Using a process-based model to simulate 1894 north temperate lakes from 1979 to 2012, we show that a scenario of decreasing clarity at a conservative yet widely observed rate of 0.92% yr−1 warmed surface waters and cooled bottom waters at rates comparable in magnitude to climate-induced warming. For lakes deeper than 6.5 m, decreasing clarity was sufficient to fully offset the effects of climate-induced warming on median whole-lake mean temperatures. Conversely, a scenario increasing clarity at the same rate cooled surface waters and warmed bottom waters relative to baseline warming rates. Furthermore, in 43% of lakes, increasing clarity more than doubled baseline bottom temperature warming rates. Long-term empirical observations of water temperature in lakes with and without clarity trends support these simulation results. Together, these results demonstrate that water clarity trends may be as important as rising air temperatures in determining how waterbodies respond to climate change.

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

Climate warming and agricultural stressors interact to determine stream periphyton community composition.

PubMed

Piggott, Jeremy J; Salis, Romana K; Lear, Gavin; Townsend, Colin R; Matthaei, Christoph D

2015-01-01

Lack of knowledge about how the various drivers of global climate change will interact with multiple stressors already affecting ecosystems is the basis for great uncertainty in projections of future biological change. Despite concerns about the impacts of changes in land use, eutrophication and climate warming in running waters, the interactive effects of these stressors on stream periphyton are largely unknown. We manipulated nutrients (simulating agricultural runoff), deposited fine sediment (simulating agricultural erosion) (two levels each) and water temperature (eight levels, 0-6 °C above ambient) simultaneously in 128 streamside mesocosms. Our aim was to determine the individual and combined effects of the three stressors on the algal and bacterial constituents of the periphyton. All three stressors had pervasive individual effects, but in combination frequently produced synergisms at the population level and antagonisms at the community level. Depending on sediment and nutrient conditions, the effect of raised temperature frequently produced contrasting response patterns, with stronger or opposing effects when one or both stressors were augmented. Thus, warming tended to interact negatively with nutrients or sediment by weakening or reversing positive temperature effects or strengthening negative ones. Five classes of algal growth morphology were all affected in complex ways by raised temperature, suggesting that these measures may prove unreliable in biomonitoring programs in a warming climate. The evenness and diversity of the most abundant bacterial taxa increased with temperature at ambient but not with enriched nutrient levels, indicating that warming coupled with nutrient limitation may lead to a more evenly distributed bacterial community as temperatures rise. Freshwater management decisions that seek to avoid or mitigate the negative effects of agricultural land use on stream periphyton should be informed by knowledge of the interactive effects of multiple stressors in a warming climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The changing effects of Alaska’s boreal forests on the climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Euskirchen, E.S.; McGuire, A. David; Chapin, F.S.; Rupp, T.S.

2010-01-01

In the boreal forests of Alaska, recent changes in climate have influenced the exchange of trace gases, water, and energy between these forests and the atmosphere. These changes in the structure and function of boreal forests can then feed back to impact regional and global climates. In this manuscript, we examine the type and magnitude of the climate feedbacks from boreal forests in Alaska. Research generally suggests that the net effect of a warming climate is a positive regional feedback to warming. Currently, the primary positive climate feedbacks are likely related to decreases in surface albedo due to decreases in snow cover. Fewer negative feedbacks have been identified, and they may not be large enough to counterbalance the large positive feedbacks. These positive feedbacks are most pronounced at the regional scale and reduce the resilience of the boreal vegetation – climate system by amplifying the rate of regional warming. Given the recent warming in this region, the large variety of associated mechanisms that can alter terrestrial ecosystems and influence the climate system, and a reduction in the boreal forest resilience, there is a strong need to continue to quantify and evaluate the feedback pathways.

Effects of climate warming and prolonged snow cover on phenology of the early life history stages of four alpine herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Wang, Guoyan; Baskin, Carol C; Baskin, Jerry M; Yang, Xuejun; Liu, Guofang; Ye, Xuehua; Zhang, Xinshi; Huang, Zhenying

2018-06-21

Much research has focused on plant responses to ongoing climate change, but there is relatively little information about how climate change will affect the early plant life history stages. Understanding how global warming and changes in winter snow pattern will affect seed germination and seedling establishment is crucial for predicting future alpine population and vegetation dynamics. In a 2-year study, we tested how warming and alteration in the snowmelt regime, both in isolation and combination, influence seedling emergence phenology, first-year growth, biomass allocation, and survival of four native alpine perennial herbs on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Warming promoted seedling emergence phenology of all four species and biomass per plant of two species but reduced seedling survival of three species. Prolonged snow cover partly mediated the affects of warming on Primula alpicola (survival and biomass), Pedicularis fletcheri (phenology, biomass, and root:shoot ratio) and Meconopsis integrifolia (survival). For the narrowly distributed species M. racemosa, seedling growth was additively decreased by warming and prolonged snow cover. Both warming and alteration of the snow cover regime can influence plant recruitment by affecting seedling phenology, growth, and survival, and the effects are largely species-specific. Thus, climate change is likely to affect population dynamics and community structure of the alpine ecosystem. This is the first experimental demonstration of the phenological advancement of seedling emergence in the field by simulated climate warming. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Solomon, Susan; Daniel, John S; Sanford, Todd J; Murphy, Daniel M; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2010-10-26

Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean.

The neurobiology of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-02-01

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

The neurobiology of climate change.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-01-06

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

[Responses of boreal forest landscape in northern Great Xing'an Mountains of Northeast China to climate change].

PubMed

Li, Xiao-Na; He, Hong-Shi; Wu, Zhi-Wei; Liang, Yu

2012-12-01

With the combination of forest landscape model (LANDIS) and forest gap model (LINKAGES), this paper simulated the effects of climate change on the boreal forest landscape in the Great Xing'an Mountains, and compared the direct effects of climate change and the effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape. The results showed that under the current climate conditions and fire disturbances, the forest landscape in the study area could maintain its dynamic balance, and Larix gmelinii was still the dominant tree species. Under the future climate and fire disturbances scenario, the distribution area of L. gmelinii and Pinus pumila would be decreased, while that of Betula platyphylla, Populus davidiana, Populus suaveolens, Chosenia arbutifolia, and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica would be increased, and the forest fragmentation and forest diversity would have an increase. The changes of the forest landscape lagged behind climate change. Climate warming would increase the growth of most tree species except L. gmelinii, while the increased fires would increase the distribution area of P. davidiana, P. suaveolens, and C. arbutifolia and decrease the distribution area of L. gmelinii, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, and P. pumila. The effects of climate warming-induced fires on the forest landscape were almost equal to the direct effects of climate change, and aggravated the direct effects of climate change on forest composition, forest landscape fragmentation, and forest landscape diversity.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

The Effects of Warming and Nitrogen Addition on Soil Nitrogen Cycling in a Temperate Grassland, Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Ma, Lin-Na; Lü, Xiao-Tao; Liu, Yang; Guo, Ji-Xun; Zhang, Nan-Yi; Yang, Jian-Qin; Wang, Ren-Zhong

2011-01-01

Background Both climate warming and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition are predicted to affect soil N cycling in terrestrial biomes over the next century. However, the interactive effects of warming and N deposition on soil N mineralization in temperate grasslands are poorly understood. Methodology/Principal Findings A field manipulation experiment was conducted to examine the effects of warming and N addition on soil N cycling in a temperate grassland of northeastern China from 2007 to 2009. Soil samples were incubated at a constant temperature and moisture, from samples collected in the field. The results showed that both warming and N addition significantly stimulated soil net N mineralization rate and net nitrification rate. Combined warming and N addition caused an interactive effect on N mineralization, which could be explained by the relative shift of soil microbial community structure because of fungal biomass increase and strong plant uptake of added N due to warming. Irrespective of strong intra- and inter-annual variations in soil N mineralization, the responses of N mineralization to warming and N addition did not change during the three growing seasons, suggesting independence of warming and N responses of N mineralization from precipitation variations in the temperate grassland. Conclusions/Significance Interactions between climate warming and N deposition on soil N cycling were significant. These findings will improve our understanding on the response of soil N cycling to the simultaneous climate change drivers in temperate grassland ecosystem. PMID:22096609

Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfleiderer, Peter; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Mengel, Matthias; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

International climate policy uses global mean temperature rise limits as proxies for societally acceptable levels of climate change. These limits are informed by risk assessments which draw upon projections of climate impacts under various levels of warming. Here we illustrate that indicators used to define limits of warming and those used to track the evolution of the Earth System under climate change are not directly comparable. Depending on the methodological approach, differences can be time-variant and up to 0.2 °C for a warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This might lead to carbon budget overestimates of about 10 years of continued year-2015 emissions, and about a 10% increase in estimated 2100 sea-level rise. Awareness of this definitional mismatch is needed for a more effective communication between scientists and decision makers, as well as between the impact and physical climate science communities.

Comparing effects of climate warming, fire, and timber harvesting on a boreal forest landscape in northeastern China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1-40 years), early stage (41-80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest.

Experiment, monitoring, and gradient methods used to infer climate change effects on plant communities yield consistent patterns.

PubMed

Elmendorf, Sarah C; Henry, Gregory H R; Hollister, Robert D; Fosaa, Anna Maria; Gould, William A; Hermanutz, Luise; Hofgaard, Annika; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg S; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg I; Jorgenson, Janet C; Lévesque, Esther; Magnusson, Borgþór; Molau, Ulf; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Oberbauer, Steven F; Rixen, Christian; Tweedie, Craig E; Walker, Marilyn D; Walker, Marilyn

2015-01-13

Inference about future climate change impacts typically relies on one of three approaches: manipulative experiments, historical comparisons (broadly defined to include monitoring the response to ambient climate fluctuations using repeat sampling of plots, dendroecology, and paleoecology techniques), and space-for-time substitutions derived from sampling along environmental gradients. Potential limitations of all three approaches are recognized. Here we address the congruence among these three main approaches by comparing the degree to which tundra plant community composition changes (i) in response to in situ experimental warming, (ii) with interannual variability in summer temperature within sites, and (iii) over spatial gradients in summer temperature. We analyzed changes in plant community composition from repeat sampling (85 plant communities in 28 regions) and experimental warming studies (28 experiments in 14 regions) throughout arctic and alpine North America and Europe. Increases in the relative abundance of species with a warmer thermal niche were observed in response to warmer summer temperatures using all three methods; however, effect sizes were greater over broad-scale spatial gradients relative to either temporal variability in summer temperature within a site or summer temperature increases induced by experimental warming. The effect sizes for change over time within a site and with experimental warming were nearly identical. These results support the view that inferences based on space-for-time substitution overestimate the magnitude of responses to contemporary climate warming, because spatial gradients reflect long-term processes. In contrast, in situ experimental warming and monitoring approaches yield consistent estimates of the magnitude of response of plant communities to climate warming.

Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change.

PubMed

Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

2016-12-13

The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Extreme warming challenges sentinel status of kelp forests as indicators of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Daniel; Washburn, Libe; Rassweiler, Andrew; Miller, Robert; Bell, Tom; Harrer, Shannon

2016-12-01

The desire to use sentinel species as early warning indicators of impending climate change effects on entire ecosystems is attractive, but we need to verify that such approaches have sound biological foundations. A recent large-scale warming event in the North Pacific Ocean of unprecedented magnitude and duration allowed us to evaluate the sentinel status of giant kelp, a coastal foundation species that thrives in cold, nutrient-rich waters and is considered sensitive to warming. Here, we show that giant kelp and the majority of species that associate with it did not presage ecosystem effects of extreme warming off southern California despite giant kelp's expected vulnerability. Our results challenge the general perception that kelp-dominated systems are highly vulnerable to extreme warming events and expose the more general risk of relying on supposed sentinel species that are assumed to be very sensitive to climate change.

Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

2014-01-01

Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

Warming reduces carbon losses from grassland exposed to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L; Williams, David G; Dijkstra, Feike A; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A; Lecain, Daniel R

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate - carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate - carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

PubMed Central

Pendall, Elise; Heisler-White, Jana L.; Williams, David G.; Dijkstra, Feike A.; Carrillo, Yolima; Morgan, Jack A.; LeCain, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO2, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO2 fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO2] and warming. Elevated [CO2] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO2] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO2]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO2]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil. PMID:23977180

The influence of global warming on natural disasters and their public health outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2007-01-01

With a documented increase in average global surface temperatures of 0.6 degrees C since 1975, Earth now appears to be warming due to a variety of climatic effects, most notably the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities. There remains, however, no universal agreement on how rapidly, regionally, or asymmetrically the planet will warm or on the true impact of global warming on natural disasters and public health outcomes. Most reports to date of the public health impact of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on the increase in heat-stroke deaths following heat waves and on outbreaks of airborne and arthropod-borne diseases following tropical rains and flooding that resulted from fluctuations in ocean temperatures. The effects of global warming on rainfall and drought, tropical cyclone and tsunami activity, and tectonic and volcanic activity will have far-reaching public health effects not only on environmentally associated disease outbreaks but also on global food supplies and population movements. As a result of these and other recognized associations between climate change and public health consequences, many of which have been confounded by deficiencies in public health infrastructure and scientific debates over whether climate changes are spawned by atmospheric cycles or anthropogenic influences, the active responses to progressive climate change must include combinations of economic, environmental, legal, regulatory, and, most importantly, public health measures.

Trends in historical mercury deposition inferred from lake sediment cores across a climate gradient in the Canadian High Arctic.

PubMed

Korosi, Jennifer B; Griffiths, Katherine; Smol, John P; Blais, Jules M

2018-06-02

Recent climate change may be enhancing mercury fluxes to Arctic lake sediments, confounding the use of sediment cores to reconstruct histories of atmospheric deposition. Assessing the independent effects of climate warming on mercury sequestration is challenging due to temporal overlap between warming temperatures and increased long-range transport of atmospheric mercury following the Industrial Revolution. We address this challenge by examining mercury trends in short cores (the last several hundred years) from eight lakes centered on Cape Herschel (Canadian High Arctic) that span a gradient in microclimates, including two lakes that have not yet been significantly altered by climate warming due to continued ice cover. Previous research on subfossil diatoms and inferred primary production indicated the timing of limnological responses to climate warming, which, due to prevailing ice cover conditions, varied from ∼1850 to ∼1990 for lakes that have undergone changes. We show that climate warming may have enhanced mercury deposition to lake sediments in one lake (Moraine Pond), while another (West Lake) showed a strong signal of post-industrial mercury enrichment without any corresponding limnological changes associated with warming. Our results provide insights into the role of climate warming and organic carbon cycling as drivers of mercury deposition to Arctic lake sediments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Global warming: a public health concern.

PubMed

Afzal, Brenda M

2007-05-31

Over the last 100 years the average temperature on the Earth has risen approximately 1ºFahrenheit (F), increasing at a rate twice as fast as has been noted for any period in the last 1,000 years. The Arctic ice cap is shrinking, glaciers are melting, and the Arctic permafrost is thawing. There is mounting evidence that these global climate changes are already affecting human health. This article provides a brief overview of global warming and climate changes, discusses effects of climate change on health, considers the factors which contribute to climate changes, and reviews individual and collective efforts related to reducing global warming.

Importance of biophysical effects on climate warming mitigation potential of biofuel crops over the conterminous United States

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Current quantification of Climate Warming Mitigation Potential (CWMP) of biomass-derived energy has focused primarily on its biogeochemical effects. This study used site-level observations of carbon, water, and energy fluxes of biofuel crops to parameterize and evaluate the Community Land Model (CLM...

Projected changes in diverse ecosystems from climate warming and biophysical drivers in northwest Alaska

Treesearch

Mark Torre Jorgenson; Bruce G. Marcot; David K. Swanson; Janet C. Jorgenson; Anthony R. DeGange

2015-01-01

Climate warming affects arctic and boreal ecosystems by interacting with numerous biophysical factors across heterogeneous landscapes. To assess potential effects of warming on diverse local-scale ecosystems (ecotypes) across northwest Alaska, we compiled data on historical areal changes over the last 25–50 years. Based on historical rates of change relative to time...

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

PubMed Central

Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-01-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610370

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming.

PubMed

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R

2018-05-13

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p  < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pretis, Felix; Schwarz, Moritz; Tang, Kevin; Haustein, Karsten; Allen, Myles R.

2018-05-01

Empirical evidence suggests that variations in climate affect economic growth across countries over time. However, little is known about the relative impacts of climate change on economic outcomes when global mean surface temperature (GMST) is stabilized at 1.5°C or 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Here we use a new set of climate simulations under 1.5°C and 2°C warming from the `Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project to assess changes in economic growth using empirical estimates of climate impacts in a global panel dataset. Panel estimation results that are robust to outliers and breaks suggest that within-year variability of monthly temperatures and precipitation has little effect on economic growth beyond global nonlinear temperature effects. While expected temperature changes under a GMST increase of 1.5°C lead to proportionally higher warming in the Northern Hemisphere, the projected impact on economic growth is larger in the Tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Accounting for econometric estimation and climate uncertainty, the projected impacts on economic growth of 1.5°C warming are close to indistinguishable from current climate conditions, while 2°C warming suggests statistically lower economic growth for a large set of countries (median projected annual growth up to 2% lower). Level projections of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita exhibit high uncertainties, with median projected global average GDP per capita approximately 5% lower at the end of the century under 2°C warming relative to 1.5°C. The correlation between climate-induced reductions in per capita GDP growth and national income levels is significant at the p < 0.001 level, with lower-income countries experiencing greater losses, which may increase economic inequality between countries and is relevant to discussions of loss and damage under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Association between malaria incidence and meteorological factors: a multi-location study in China, 2005-2012.

PubMed

Xiang, J; Hansen, A; Liu, Q; Tong, M X; Liu, X; Sun, Y; Cameron, S; Hanson-Easey, S; Han, G S; Williams, C; Weinstein, P; Bi, P

2018-01-01

This study aims to investigate the climate-malaria associations in nine cities selected from malaria high-risk areas in China. Daily reports of malaria cases in Anhui, Henan, and Yunnan Provinces for 2005-2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Generalized estimating equation models were used to quantify the city-specific climate-malaria associations. Multivariate random-effects meta-regression analyses were used to pool the city-specific effects. An inverted-U-shaped curve relationship was observed between temperatures, average relative humidity, and malaria. A 1 °C increase of maximum temperature (T max) resulted in 6·7% (95% CI 4·6-8·8%) to 15·8% (95% CI 14·1-17·4%) increase of malaria, with corresponding lags ranging from 7 to 45 days. For minimum temperature (T min), the effect estimates peaked at lag 0 to 40 days, ranging from 5·3% (95% CI 4·4-6·2%) to 17·9% (95% CI 15·6-20·1%). Malaria is more sensitive to T min in cool climates and T max in warm climates. The duration of lag effect in a cool climate zone is longer than that in a warm climate zone. Lagged effects did not vanish after an epidemic season but waned gradually in the following 2-3 warm seasons. A warming climate may potentially increase the risk of malaria resurgence in China.

Cirrus Cloud Seeding has Potential to Cool Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Storelvmo, T.; Kristjansson, J. E.; Muri, H.; Pfeffer, M.; Barahona, D.; Nenes, A.

2013-01-01

Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere, have a net warming effect on Earth s climate. Consequently, a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thickness would cool the climate. Recent research indicates that by seeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote ice nucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced. We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate model with a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and find that cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entire warming caused by human activity from pre-industrial times to present day. However, the desired effect is only obtained for seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimal range. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, a seeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higher than optimal concentration results in an over-seeding that could have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetime and contributing to global warming.

A global experiment suggests climate warming will not accelerate litter decomposition in streams but might reduce carbon sequestration.

PubMed

Boyero, Luz; Pearson, Richard G; Gessner, Mark O; Barmuta, Leon A; Ferreira, Verónica; Graça, Manuel A S; Dudgeon, David; Boulton, Andrew J; Callisto, Marcos; Chauvet, Eric; Helson, Julie E; Bruder, Andreas; Albariño, Ricardo J; Yule, Catherine M; Arunachalam, Muthukumarasamy; Davies, Judy N; Figueroa, Ricardo; Flecker, Alexander S; Ramírez, Alonso; Death, Russell G; Iwata, Tomoya; Mathooko, Jude M; Mathuriau, Catherine; Gonçalves, José F; Moretti, Marcelo S; Jinggut, Tajang; Lamothe, Sylvain; M'Erimba, Charles; Ratnarajah, Lavenia; Schindler, Markus H; Castela, José; Buria, Leonardo M; Cornejo, Aydeé; Villanueva, Verónica D; West, Derek C

2011-03-01

The decomposition of plant litter is one of the most important ecosystem processes in the biosphere and is particularly sensitive to climate warming. Aquatic ecosystems are well suited to studying warming effects on decomposition because the otherwise confounding influence of moisture is constant. By using a latitudinal temperature gradient in an unprecedented global experiment in streams, we found that climate warming will likely hasten microbial litter decomposition and produce an equivalent decline in detritivore-mediated decomposition rates. As a result, overall decomposition rates should remain unchanged. Nevertheless, the process would be profoundly altered, because the shift in importance from detritivores to microbes in warm climates would likely increase CO(2) production and decrease the generation and sequestration of recalcitrant organic particles. In view of recent estimates showing that inland waters are a significant component of the global carbon cycle, this implies consequences for global biogeochemistry and a possible positive climate feedback. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Anticipated climate warming effects on bull trout habitats and populations across the interior Columbia River basin

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel Isaak; Susan Adams; Dona Horan; David Nagel; Charles Luce; Deborah Myers

2007-01-01

A warming climate could profoundly affect the distribution and abundance of many fishes. Bull trout Salvelinus confluentus may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that spawning and early rearing are constrained by cold water temperatures creating a patchwork of natal headwater habitats across river networks. Because the size and...

Changing forest water yields in response to climate warming: results from long-term experimental watershed sites across North America.

PubMed

Creed, Irena F; Spargo, Adam T; Jones, Julia A; Buttle, Jim M; Adams, Mary B; Beall, Fred D; Booth, Eric G; Campbell, John L; Clow, Dave; Elder, Kelly; Green, Mark B; Grimm, Nancy B; Miniat, Chelcy; Ramlal, Patricia; Saha, Amartya; Sebestyen, Stephen; Spittlehouse, Dave; Sterling, Shannon; Williams, Mark W; Winkler, Rita; Yao, Huaxia

2014-10-01

Climate warming is projected to affect forest water yields but the effects are expected to vary. We investigated how forest type and age affect water yield resilience to climate warming. To answer this question, we examined the variability in historical water yields at long-term experimental catchments across Canada and the United States over 5-year cool and warm periods. Using the theoretical framework of the Budyko curve, we calculated the effects of climate warming on the annual partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield. Deviation (d) was defined as a catchment's change in actual ET divided by P [AET/P; evaporative index (EI)] coincident with a shift from a cool to a warm period - a positive d indicates an upward shift in EI and smaller than expected water yields, and a negative d indicates a downward shift in EI and larger than expected water yields. Elasticity was defined as the ratio of interannual variation in potential ET divided by P (PET/P; dryness index) to interannual variation in the EI - high elasticity indicates low d despite large range in drying index (i.e., resilient water yields), low elasticity indicates high d despite small range in drying index (i.e., nonresilient water yields). Although the data needed to fully evaluate ecosystems based on these metrics are limited, we were able to identify some characteristics of response among forest types. Alpine sites showed the greatest sensitivity to climate warming with any warming leading to increased water yields. Conifer forests included catchments with lowest elasticity and stable to larger water yields. Deciduous forests included catchments with intermediate elasticity and stable to smaller water yields. Mixed coniferous/deciduous forests included catchments with highest elasticity and stable water yields. Forest type appeared to influence the resilience of catchment water yields to climate warming, with conifer and deciduous catchments more susceptible to climate warming than the more diverse mixed forest catchments. © 2014 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

2018-02-01

Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change. PMID:27446064

Effects of Short-Term Warming and Altered Precipitation on Soil Microbial Communities in Alpine Grassland of the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Zhang, Kaoping; Shi, Yu; Jing, Xin; He, Jin-Sheng; Sun, Ruibo; Yang, Yunfeng; Shade, Ashley; Chu, Haiyan

2016-01-01

Soil microbial communities are influenced by climate change drivers such as warming and altered precipitation. These changes create abiotic stresses, including desiccation and nutrient limitation, which act on microbes. However, our understanding of the responses of microbial communities to co-occurring climate change drivers is limited. We surveyed soil bacterial and fungal diversity and composition after a 1-year warming and altered precipitation manipulation in the Tibetan plateau alpine grassland. In isolation, warming and decreased precipitation treatments each had no significant effects on soil bacterial community structure; however, in combination of both treatments altered bacterial community structure (p = 0.03). The main effect of altered precipitation specifically impacted the relative abundances of Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria compared to the control, while the main effect of warming impacted the relative abundance of Betaproteobacteria. In contrast, the fungal community had no significant response to the treatments after 1-year. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we found bacterial community composition was positively related to soil moisture. Our results indicate that short-term climate change could cause changes in soil bacterial community through taxonomic shifts. Our work provides new insights into immediate soil microbial responses to short-term stressors acting on an ecosystem that is particularly sensitive to global climate change.

Elevated air temperature alters an old-field insect community in a multi-factor climate change experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villalpando, Sean; Williams, Ray; Norby, Richard J

To address how multiple, interacting climate drivers may affect plant-insect community associations, we sampled the insect community from a constructed old-field plant community grown under simultaneous [CO2], temperature, and water manipulation. Insects were identified to morphospecies, assigned to feeding guilds and abundance, richness and evenness quantified. Warming significantly increased Order Thysanoptera abundance and reduced overall morphospecies richness and evenness. Non-metric multidimensional scaling clearly supported the effect of warming on insect community composition. Reductions in richness for herbivores and parasitoids suggest trophic-level effects within the insect community. Analysis of dominant insects demonstrated the effects of warming were limited to a relativelymore » small number of morphospecies. Reported reductions in whole-community foliar N at elevated [CO2] unexpectedly did not result in any effects on herbivores. These results demonstrate climatic warming may alter certain insect communities via effects on insect species most responsive to higher temperature, contributing to a change in community structure.« less

Water runoff vs modern climatic warming in mountainous cryolithic zone in North-East Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glotov, V. E.; Glotova, L. P.

2018-01-01

The article presents the results of studying the effects of current climatic warming for both surface and subsurface water runoffs in North-East Russia, where the Main Watershed of the Earth separates it into the Arctic and Pacific continental slopes. The process of climatic warming is testified by continuous weather records during 80-100 years and longer periods. Over the Arctic slope and in the northern areas of the Pacific slope, climatic warming results in a decline in a total runoff of rivers whereas the ground-water recharge becomes greater in winter low-level conditions. In the southern Pacific slope and in the Sea of Okhotsk basin, the effect of climatic warming is an overall increase in total runoff including its subsurface constituents. We believe these peculiar characters of river runoff there to be related to the cryolithic zone environments. Over the Arctic slope and the northern Pacific slope, where cryolithic zone is continuous, the total runoff has its subsurface constituent as basically resulting from discharge of ground waters hosted in seasonally thawing rocks. Warmer climatic conditions favor growth of vegetation that needs more water for the processes of evapotranspiration and evaporation from rocky surfaces in summer seasons. In the Sea of Okhotsk basin, where the cryolithic zone is discontinuous, not only ground waters in seasonally thawing layers, but also continuous taliks and subpermafrost waters participate in processes of river recharges. As a result, a greater biological productivity of vegetation cover does not have any effect on ground-water supply and river recharge processes. If a steady climate warming is provided, a continuous cryolithic zone can presumably degrade into a discontinuous and then into an island-type permafrost layer. Under such a scenario, there will be a general increase in the total runoff and its subsurface constituent. From geoecological viewpoints, a greater runoff will have quite positive effects, whereas some minor negative consequences of it can be successfully prevented.

Was Early Mars Warmed by CH4?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Justh, H. L.; Kasting, J. F.

2001-12-01

Images from the Mariner, Viking and Mars Global Surveyor missions have shown geologic features on the Martian surface that seem to indicate an earlier period of hydrologic activity. Many researchers have suggested that the early Martian climate was more Earth-like with a Ts of 273 K or higher. The presence of liquid water would require a greenhouse effect much larger than needed at present since S0 is 25% lower 3.8 billion years ago when the channels are thought to have formed. Research into the effects of CO2 clouds upon the climate of early Mars have yielded results that would not effectively warm the surface to the temperature needed to account for the presence of liquid water. Forget and Pierrehumbert (Science, 1997) showed that large crystals of CO2 ice in clouds that form in the upper troposphere would produce a strong warming effect. Obtaining mean surface temperatures above 273 K would require 100% cloud cover, a condition that is unrealistic for early Mars. It has also been shown that any reduction in cloud cover makes it difficult to achieve warm Martian surface temperatures except at high pressures. CO2 clouds could also cool the Martian surface if they were low and optically thick. CO2 ice may be hard to nucleate, leading to the formation of very large particles (Glandorf, private communication). CH4 has been suggested as an important greenhouse gas on the early Earth. This has led us to look at CH4 as a potential solution to the early Mars climate issue. To investigate the possible warming effect of CH4, we utilized a modified, one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model that has been used in previous studies of the early Martian climate. New calculations of the effects of CH4 upon the early Martian climate will be presented. The use of CH4 to warm the surface of early Mars does not necessarily imply the presence of life on Mars. Abiotic sources of CH4, such as serpentinization of ultramafic rocks, could supply the concentrations needed to warm the surface.

Topography and age mediate the growth responses of Smith fir to climate warming in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, H.; Liang, E.; Camarero, J. J.

2016-10-01

The Tibetan Plateau holds some of the world's highest undisturbed natural treelines and timberlines. Such extreme environments constitute potentially valuable monitoring sites of the effects of climate warming on high-elevation forests. Here, we analyze a network of 21 Smith fir forests situated in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau, using tree-ring width (TRW) and basal area increment (BAI) chronologies. Sampled sites encompassed a wide elevation gradient, from 3600 to 4400 m, including some treeline sites and diverse aspects and tree ages. In comparison with TRW series, BAI series better capture the long-term warming signal. Previous November and current April and summer temperatures are the dominant climatic factors controlling Smith fir radial growth. The mean inter-series correlations of TRW increased upwards, but the forest limit presented the highest potential to reconstruct past temperature variability. Moreover, the growth responses of young trees were less stable than those of trees older than 100 years. Climate warming is accelerating radial growth of Smith fir forest subjected to mesic conditions. Collectively, these findings confirm that the effects of site elevation and tree age should be considered when quantifying climate-growth relationships. The type of tree-ring data (BAI vs. TRW) is also relevant since BAI indices seem to be a better climatic proxy of low-frequency temperature signals than TRW indices. Therefore, site (e.g., elevation) and tree (e.g., age) features should be considered to properly evaluate the effects of climate warming on growth of high-elevation forests.

Soil respiration response to climate change in Pacific Northwest prairies is mediated by a regional Mediterranean climate gradient.

PubMed

Reynolds, Lorien L; Johnson, Bart R; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Bridgham, Scott D

2015-01-01

Soil respiration is expected to increase with rising global temperatures but the degree of response may depend on soil moisture and other local factors. Experimental climate change studies from single sites cannot discern whether an observed response is site-dependent or generalizable. To deconvolve site-specific vs. regional climatic controls, we examined soil respiration for 18 months along a 520 km climate gradient in three Pacific Northwest, USA prairies that represents increasingly severe Mediterranean conditions from north to south. At each site we implemented a fully factorial combination of 2.5-3 °C warming and 20% added precipitation intensity. The response of soil respiration to warming was driven primarily by the latitudinal climate gradient and not site-specific factors. Warming increased respiration at all sites during months when soil moisture was not limiting. However, these gains were offset by reductions in respiration during seasonal transitions and summer drought due to lengthened periods of soil moisture limitation. The degree of this offset varied along the north-south climate gradient such that in 2011 warming increased cumulative annual soil respiration 28.6% in the northern site, 13.5% in the central site, and not at all in the southern site. Precipitation also stimulated soil respiration more frequently in the south, consistent with an increased duration of moisture limitation. The best predictors of soil respiration in nonlinear models were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), antecedent soil moisture, and temperature but these models provided biased results at high and low soil respiration. NDVI was an effective integrator of climate and site differences in plant productivity in terms of their combined effects on soil respiration. Our results suggest that soil moisture limitation can offset the effect of warming on soil respiration, and that greater growing-season moisture limitation would constrain cumulative annual responses to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Short-term responses to warming vary between native vs. exotic species and with latitude in an early successional plant community.

PubMed

Welshofer, Kileigh B; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Lany, Nina K; Read, Quentin D

2018-05-01

Climate change is expected to favor exotic plant species over native species, because exotics tend to have wider climatic tolerances and greater phenological plasticity, and also because climate change may intensify enemy release. Here, we examine direct effects of warming (+ 1.8 °C above ambient) on plant abundance and phenology, as well as indirect effects of warming propagated through herbivores, in two heavily invaded plant communities in Michigan, USA, separated by approximately three degrees latitude. At the northern site, warming increased exotic plant abundance by 19% but decreased native plant abundance by 31%, indicating that exotic species may be favored in a warmer world. Warming also resulted in earlier spring green-up (1.65 ± 0.77 days), earlier flowering (2.18 ± 0.92 days), and greater damage by herbivores (twofold increase), affecting exotic and native species equally. Contrary to expectations, native and exotic plants experienced similar amounts of herbivory. Warming did not have strong ecological effects at the southern site, only resulting in a delay of flowering time by 2.42 ± 0.83 days for both native and exotic species. Consistent with the enemy release hypothesis, exotic plants experienced less herbivory than native plants at the southern site. Herbivory was lower under warming for both exotic and native species at the southern site. Thus, climate warming may favor exotic over native plant species, but the response is likely to depend on additional environmental and individual species' traits.

Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

PubMed

Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

2013-02-21

The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake.

PubMed

de Wit, Heleen A; Bryn, Anders; Hofgaard, Annika; Karstensen, Jonas; Kvalevåg, Maria M; Peters, Glen P

2014-07-01

Expanding high-elevation and high-latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south-central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land-use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow-covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high-latitude and high-elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Myles R.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Reisinger, Andy; Pierrehumbert, Raymond T.; Forster, Piers M.

2016-08-01

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of `cumulative climate pollutants' such as carbon dioxide versus `short-lived climate pollutants' (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20-40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century, which may be necessary to limit warming to ``well below 2 °C'' (ref. ). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Forage plants of an Arctic-nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds, potentially disrupting migration phenology.

PubMed

Lameris, Thomas K; Jochems, Femke; van der Graaf, Alexandra J; Andersson, Mattias; Limpens, Juul; Nolet, Bart A

2017-04-01

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen-rich forage plants, following a "green wave" of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open-top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0-1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop-over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen-rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1-2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.

Comparing Effects of Climate Warming, Fire, and Timber Harvesting on a Boreal Forest Landscape in Northeastern China

PubMed Central

Li, Xiaona; He, Hong S.; Wu, Zhiwei; Liang, Yu; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.

2013-01-01

Forest management under a changing climate requires assessing the effects of climate warming and disturbance on the composition, age structure, and spatial patterns of tree species. We investigated these effects on a boreal forest in northeastern China using a factorial experimental design and simulation modeling. We used a spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS) to evaluate the effects of three independent variables: climate (current and expected future), fire regime (current and increased fire), and timber harvesting (no harvest and legal harvest). Simulations indicate that this forested landscape would be significantly impacted under a changing climate. Climate warming would significantly increase the abundance of most trees, especially broadleaf species (aspen, poplar, and willow). However, climate warming would have less impact on the abundance of conifers, diversity of forest age structure, and variation in spatial landscape structure than burning and harvesting. Burning was the predominant influence in the abundance of conifers except larch and the abundance of trees in mid-stage. Harvesting impacts were greatest for the abundance of larch and birch, and the abundance of trees during establishment stage (1–40 years), early stage (41–80 years) and old- growth stage (>180 years). Disturbance by timber harvesting and burning may significantly alter forest ecosystem dynamics by increasing forest fragmentation and decreasing forest diversity. Results from the simulations provide insight into the long term management of this boreal forest. PMID:23573209

Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yujie; Chen, Qiaomin

2017-04-01

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Bin Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that…

The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

2006-12-01

Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

PubMed Central

Huey, Raymond B.; Deutsch, Curtis A.; Tewksbury, Joshua J.; Vitt, Laurie J.; Hertz, Paul E.; Álvarez Pérez, Héctor J.; Garland, Theodore

2009-01-01

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low. PMID:19324762

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming.

PubMed

Huey, Raymond B; Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Vitt, Laurie J; Hertz, Paul E; Alvarez Pérez, Héctor J; Garland, Theodore

2009-06-07

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.

Experimental climate change weakens the insurance effect of biodiversity.

PubMed

Eklöf, Johan S; Alsterberg, Christian; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina; Wood, Hannah L; Gamfeldt, Lars

2012-08-01

Ecosystems are simultaneously affected by biodiversity loss and climate change, but we know little about how these factors interact. We predicted that climate warming and CO (2) -enrichment should strengthen trophic cascades by reducing the relative efficiency of predation-resistant herbivores, if herbivore consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. This weakens the insurance effect of herbivore diversity. We tested this prediction using experimental ocean warming and acidification in seagrass mesocosms. Meta-analyses of published experiments first indicated that consumption rate trades off with predation resistance. The experiment then showed that three common herbivores together controlled macroalgae and facilitated seagrass dominance, regardless of climate change. When the predation-vulnerable herbivore was excluded in normal conditions, the two resistant herbivores maintained top-down control. Under warming, however, increased algal growth outstripped control by herbivores and the system became algal-dominated. Consequently, climate change can reduce the relative efficiency of resistant herbivores and weaken the insurance effect of biodiversity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia

PubMed Central

Wan, Xinru

2017-01-01

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal–spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. PMID:28330916

Climate warming and humans played different roles in triggering Late Quaternary extinctions in east and west Eurasia.

PubMed

Wan, Xinru; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-03-29

Climate change and humans are proposed as the two key drivers of total extinction of many large mammals in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene, but disentangling their relative roles remains challenging owing to a lack of quantitative evaluation of human impact and climate-driven distribution changes on the extinctions of these large mammals in a continuous temporal-spatial dimension. Here, our analyses showed that temperature change had significant effects on mammoth (genus Mammuthus ), rhinoceros (Rhinocerotidae), horse (Equidae) and deer (Cervidae). Rapid global warming was the predominant factor driving the total extinction of mammoths and rhinos in frigid zones from the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene. Humans showed significant, negative effects on extirpations of the four mammalian taxa, and were the predominant factor causing the extinction or major extirpations of rhinos and horses. Deer survived both rapid climate warming and extensive human impacts. Our study indicates that both the current rates of warming and range shifts of species are much faster than those from the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. Our results provide new insight into the extinction of Late Quaternary megafauna by demonstrating taxon-, period- and region-specific differences in extinction drivers of climate change and human disturbances, and some implications about the extinction risk of animals by recent and ongoing climate warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Innovative empirical approaches for inferring climate-warming impacts on plants in remote areas.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter

2015-02-01

The prediction of the effects of climate warming on plant communities across the globe has become a major focus of ecology, evolution and biodiversity conservation. However, many of the frequently used empirical approaches for inferring how warming affects vegetation have been criticized for decades. In addition, methods that require no electricity may be preferred because of constraints of active warming, e.g. in remote areas. Efforts to overcome the limitations of earlier methods are currently under development, but these approaches have yet to be systematically evaluated side by side. Here, an overview of the benefits and limitations of a selection of innovative empirical techniques to study temperature effects on plants is presented, with a focus on practicality in relatively remote areas without an electric power supply. I focus on methods for: ecosystem aboveground and belowground warming; a fuller exploitation of spatial temperature variation; and long-term monitoring of plant ecological and microevolutionary changes in response to warming. An evaluation of the described methodological set-ups in a synthetic framework along six axes (associated with the consistency of temperature differences, disturbance, costs, confounding factors, spatial scale and versatility) highlights their potential usefulness and power. Hence, further developments of new approaches to empirically assess warming effects on plants can critically stimulate progress in climate-change biology.

Short winters threaten temperate fish populations

PubMed Central

Farmer, Troy M.; Marschall, Elizabeth A.; Dabrowski, Konrad; Ludsin, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

Although climate warming is expected to benefit temperate ectotherms by lengthening the summer growing season, declines in reproductive success following short, warm winters may counter such positive effects. Here we present long-term (1973–2010) field patterns for Lake Erie yellow perch, Perca flavescens, which show that failed annual recruitment events followed short, warm winters. Subsequent laboratory experimentation and field investigations revealed how reduced reproductive success following short, warm winters underlie these observed field patterns. Following short winters, females spawn at warmer temperatures and produce smaller eggs that both hatch at lower rates and produce smaller larvae than females exposed to long winters. Our research suggests that continued climate warming can lead to unanticipated, negative effects on temperate fish populations. PMID:26173734

Environmental Progression: The Psychological Justification for Reframing Climate Change and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veldey, S. H.

2016-12-01

On-going research in climate science communication through environmental media has uncovered critical barriers to reducing denial and increasing agency in addressing the threat of climate change. Similar to framing of our changing environment as "global warming", the term "climate change" also fails to properly frame the most critical challenge our species has faced. In a set of preliminary studies, significant changes in climate crisis denial, both positive and negative, have resulted from different media messaging. Continuation of this research utilizes social judgement theory (SJT) to classify a broader spectrum of effective avenues for environmental communication. The specificity of the terms global warming and climate change limit inclusion of issues critical to understanding their impacts. Now that the masses know what climate change is, it's time to teach them what it means.

Allocation trade-off under climate warming in experimental amphibian populations

PubMed Central

Gao, Xu; Jin, Changnan; Camargo, Arley

2015-01-01

Climate change could either directly or indirectly cause population declines via altered temperature, rainfall regimes, food availability or phenological responses. However few studies have focused on allocation trade-offs between growth and reproduction under marginal resources, such as food scarce that may be caused by climate warming. Such critical changes may have an unpredicted impact on amphibian life-history parameters and even population dynamics. Here, we report an allocation strategy of adult anuran individuals involving a reproductive stage under experimental warming. Using outdoor mesocosm experiments we simulated a warming scenario likely to occur at the end of this century. We examined the effects of temperature (ambient vs. pre-/post-hibernation warming) and food availability (normal vs. low) on reproduction and growth parameters of pond frogs (Pelophylax nigromaculatus). We found that temperature was the major factor influencing reproductive time of female pond frogs, which showed a significant advancing under post-hibernation warming treatment. While feeding rate was the major factor influencing reproductive status of females, clutch size, and variation of body size for females, showed significant positive correlations between feeding rate and reproductive status, clutch size, or variation of body size. Our results suggested that reproduction and body size of amphibians might be modulated by climate warming or food availability variation. We believe this study provides some new evidence on allocation strategies suggesting that amphibians could adjust their reproductive output to cope with climate warming. PMID:26500832

Effects of experimental throughfall reduction and soil warming on fine root biomass and its decomposition in a warm temperate oak forest.

PubMed

Liu, Yanchun; Liu, Shirong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Jingxin; Wang, Hui; Liu, Kuan

2017-01-01

Fine root dynamics play a critical role in regulating carbon (C) cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. Examining responses of fine root biomass and its decomposition to altered precipitation pattern and climate warming is crucial to understand terrestrial C dynamics and its feedback to climate change. Fine root biomass and its decomposition rate were investigated in a warm temperate oak forest through a field manipulation experiment with throughfall reduction and soil warming conducted. Throughfall reduction significantly interacted with soil warming in affecting fine root biomass and its decomposition. Throughfall reduction substantially increased fine root biomass and its decomposition in unheated plots, but negative effects occurred in warmed plots. Soil warming significantly enhanced fine root biomass and its decomposition under ambient precipitation, but the opposite effects exhibited under throughfall reduction. Different responses in fine root biomass among different treatments could be largely attributed to soil total nitrogen (N), while fine root decomposition rate was more depended on microbial biomass C and N. Our observations indicate that decreased precipitation may offset the positive effect of soil warming on fine root biomass and decomposition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomass production in experimental grasslands of different species richness during three years of climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boeck, H. J.; Lemmens, C. M. H. M.; Zavalloni, C.; Gielen, B.; Malchair, S.; Carnol, M.; Merckx, R.; van den Berge, J.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.

2008-04-01

Here we report on the single and combined impacts of climate warming and species richness on the biomass production in experimental grassland communities. Projections of a future warmer climate have stimulated studies on the response of terrestrial ecosystems to this global change. Experiments have likewise addressed the importance of species numbers for ecosystem functioning. There is, however, little knowledge on the interplay between warming and species richness. During three years, we grew experimental plant communities containing one, three or nine grassland species in 12 sunlit, climate-controlled chambers in Wilrijk, Belgium. Half of these chambers were exposed to ambient air temperatures (unheated), while the other half were warmed by 3°C (heated). Equal amounts of water were added to heated and unheated communities, so that warming would imply drier soils if evapotranspiration was higher. Biomass production was decreased due to warming, both aboveground (-29%) and belowground (-25%), as negative impacts of increased heat and drought stress in summer prevailed. Complementarity effects, likely mostly through both increased aboveground spatial complementarity and facilitative effects of legumes, led to higher shoot and root biomass in multi-species communities, regardless of the induced warming. Surprisingly, warming suppressed productivity the most in 9-species communities, which may be attributed to negative impacts of intense interspecific competition for resources under conditions of high abiotic stress. Our results suggest that warming and the associated soil drying could reduce primary production in many temperate grasslands, and that this will not necessarily be mitigated by efforts to maintain or increase species richness.

Stronger warming effects on microbial abundances in colder regions

DOE PAGES

Chen, Ji; Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; ...

2015-12-10

Soil microbes play critical roles in regulating terrestrial carbon (C) cycle and its feedback to climate change. However, it is still unclear how the soil microbial community and abundance respond to future climate change scenarios. In this meta-analysis, we synthesized the responses of microbial community and abundance to experimental warming from 64 published field studies. Our results showed that warming significantly increased soil microbial abundance by 7.6% on average. When grouped by vegetation or soil types, tundras and histosols had the strongest microbial responses to warming with increased microbial, fungal, and bacterial abundances by 15.0%, 9.5% and 37.0% in tundra,more » and 16.5%, 13.2% and 13.3% in histosols, respectively. We found significant negative relationships of the response ratios of microbial, fungal and bacterial abundances with the mean annual temperature, indicating that warming had stronger effects in colder than warmer regions. Moreover, the response ratios of microbial abundance to warming were positively correlated with those of soil respiration. Our results therefore indicate that the large quantities of C stored in colder regions are likely to be more vulnerable to climate warming than the soil C stored in other warmer regions.« less

Stronger warming effects on microbial abundances in colder regions

PubMed Central

Chen, Ji; Luo, Yiqi; Xia, Jianyang; Jiang, Lifen; Zhou, Xuhui; Lu, Meng; Liang, Junyi; Shi, Zheng; Shelton, Shelby; Cao, Junji

2015-01-01

Soil microbes play critical roles in regulating terrestrial carbon (C) cycle and its feedback to climate change. However, it is still unclear how the soil microbial community and abundance respond to future climate change scenarios. In this meta-analysis, we synthesized the responses of microbial community and abundance to experimental warming from 64 published field studies. Our results showed that warming significantly increased soil microbial abundance by 7.6% on average. When grouped by vegetation or soil types, tundras and histosols had the strongest microbial responses to warming with increased microbial, fungal, and bacterial abundances by 15.0%, 9.5% and 37.0% in tundra, and 16.5%, 13.2% and 13.3% in histosols, respectively. We found significant negative relationships of the response ratios of microbial, fungal and bacterial abundances with the mean annual temperature, indicating that warming had stronger effects in colder than warmer regions. Moreover, the response ratios of microbial abundance to warming were positively correlated with those of soil respiration. Our findings therefore indicate that the large quantities of C stored in colder regions are likely to be more vulnerable to climate warming than the soil C stored in other warmer regions. PMID:26658882

Mammalian herbivores confer resilience of Arctic shrub-dominated ecosystems to changing climate.

PubMed

Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Hoset, Katrine S; Olofsson, Johan

2015-09-01

Climate change is resulting in a rapid expansion of shrubs in the Arctic. This expansion has been shown to be reinforced by positive feedbacks, and it could thus set the ecosystem on a trajectory toward an alternate, more productive regime. Herbivores, on the other hand, are known to counteract the effects of simultaneous climate warming on shrub biomass. However, little is known about the impact of herbivores on resilience of these ecosystems, that is, the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and still remain in the same regime, retaining the same function, structure, and feedbacks. Here, we investigated how herbivores affect resilience of shrub-dominated systems to warming by studying the change of shrub biomass after a cessation of long-term experimental warming in a forest-tundra ecotone. As predicted, warming increased the biomass of shrubs, and in the absence of herbivores, shrub biomass in tundra continued to increase 4 years after cessation of the artificial warming, indicating that positive effects of warming on plant growth may persist even over a subsequent colder period. Herbivores contributed to the resilience of these systems by returning them back to the original low-biomass regime in both forest and tundra habitats. These results support the prediction that higher shrub biomass triggers positive feedbacks on soil processes and microclimate, which enable maintaining the rapid shrub growth even in colder climates. Furthermore, the results show that in our system, herbivores facilitate the resilience of shrub-dominated ecosystems to climate warming. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warming trumps CO2: future climate conditions suppress carbon fluxes in two dominant boreal tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, D.; Dusenge, M. E.; Madhavji, S.

2017-12-01

Increases in CO2 are expected to raise air temperatures in northern latitudes by up to 8 °C by the end of the century. Boreal forests in these regions play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of boreal tree species to climate drivers will thus have considerable impacts on the trajectory of future CO2 increases. We grew two dominant North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how carbon fluxes were altered by high CO2 and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and tamarack (Larix laricina) were grown from seed under either ambient (400 ppm) or elevated CO2 concentrations (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, moderate warming (ambient +4 °C), or extreme warming (ambient +8 °C) for six months. We measured temperature responses of net photosynthesis, maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport (Jmax) and dark respiration to determine acclimation to the climate treatments. Overall, growth temperature had a strong effect on carbon fluxes, while there were no significant effects of growth CO2. In both species, the photosynthetic thermal optimum increased and maximum photosynthetic rates were reduced in warm-grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Vcmax and Jmax were also reduced in warm-grown seedlings, and this correlated with reductions in leaf N concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for Vcmax and the thermal optimum for Jmax in both species. Respiration acclimated to elevated growth temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q10 of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10 °C increase in leaf temperature). Our results show that climate warming is likely to reduce carbon fluxes in these boreal conifers, and that photosynthetic parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models acclimate to increased temperatures, but show little response to elevated CO2.

Mediating water temperature increases due to livestock and global change in high elevation meadow streams of the Golden Trout Wilderness

Treesearch

Sebastien Nussle; Kathleen R. Matthews; Stephanie M. Carlson

2015-01-01

Rising temperatures due to climate change are pushing the thermal limits of many species, but how climate warming interacts with other anthropogenic disturbances such as land use remains poorly understood. To understand the interactive effects of climate warming and livestock grazing on water temperature in three high elevation meadow streams in the Golden Trout...

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepori, Fabio; Roberts, James J.

2015-01-01

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

[Impacts of climate change on food production in Gansu: A review].

PubMed

Yang, Feng-ke; He, Bao-lin; Gao, Shi-ming

2015-03-01

The climate of Gansu turned to be overall warming-drying and partly warming-wetting since 1986. In contrast to that of 1960, the average annual temperature had raised by 1.1°C with the average annual precipitation decreased by 28 mm correspondingly, which made the arid region expanded southward by 50 km in 2010. Climate warming increased the growth period effective accumulated temperature of main food grain crops and lengthened the crop growth period. It changed crop maturity, crop disposition, cropping system and generally increased the cultivatable area and planting altitude above the sea level of major crops and expanded northward the multiple cropping system, which further resulted in expansion of autumn grain crop sown area, shrink of summer grain crop sown area, and replacement of strong winter early maturing varieties by weak winter middle late maturing varieties. It benefited the crop yield by increasing the use efficiency of photo-thermal resources. Warming-wetting climate increased the climate productivity of oasis crop while warming-drying weather decreased the climate productivity of rainfed crops, which were mostly determined by the precipitation regimes and water conditions. Any advanced technique that can increase precipitation use ratio and water use efficiency as well as improve and promote soil quality and fertility should be regarded as an effective countermeasure to increase food grain production under climate change in Gsansu. So, selecting and breeding new crop varieties with the characteristics of strong resistance, weak winter, middle-late mature and high water use efficiency, establishing new planting structure and cropping system that suitable to the precipitation and temperature features of changed climate, are the development direction of food grain production in Gansu to cope with the climate change.

Consumers mediate the effects of experimental ocean acidification and warming on primary producers.

PubMed

Alsterberg, Christian; Eklöf, Johan S; Gamfeldt, Lars; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Sundbäck, Kristina

2013-05-21

It is well known that ocean acidification can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we know little about the direct and indirect effects of ocean acidification and also how these effects interact with other features of environmental change such as warming and declining consumer pressure. In this study, we tested whether the presence of consumers (invertebrate mesograzers) influenced the interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming on benthic microalgae in a seagrass community mesocosm experiment. Net effects of acidification and warming on benthic microalgal biomass and production, as assessed by analysis of variance, were relatively weak regardless of grazer presence. However, partitioning these net effects into direct and indirect effects using structural equation modeling revealed several strong relationships. In the absence of grazers, benthic microalgae were negatively and indirectly affected by sediment-associated microalgal grazers and macroalgal shading, but directly and positively affected by acidification and warming. Combining indirect and direct effects yielded no or weak net effects. In the presence of grazers, almost all direct and indirect climate effects were nonsignificant. Our analyses highlight that (i) indirect effects of climate change may be at least as strong as direct effects, (ii) grazers are crucial in mediating these effects, and (iii) effects of ocean acidification may be apparent only through indirect effects and in combination with other variables (e.g., warming). These findings highlight the importance of experimental designs and statistical analyses that allow us to separate and quantify the direct and indirect effects of multiple climate variables on natural communities.

Fungi benefit from two decades of increased nutrient availability in tundra heath soil.

PubMed

Rinnan, Riikka; Michelsen, Anders; Bååth, Erland

2013-01-01

If microbial degradation of carbon substrates in arctic soil is stimulated by climatic warming, this would be a significant positive feedback on global change. With data from a climate change experiment in Northern Sweden we show that warming and enhanced soil nutrient availability, which is a predicted long-term consequence of climatic warming and mimicked by fertilization, both increase soil microbial biomass. However, while fertilization increased the relative abundance of fungi, warming caused only a minimal shift in the microbial community composition based on the phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) and neutral lipid fatty acid (NLFA) profiles. The function of the microbial community was also differently affected, as indicated by stable isotope probing of PLFA and NLFA. We demonstrate that two decades of fertilization have favored fungi relative to bacteria, and increased the turnover of complex organic compounds such as vanillin, while warming has had no such effects. Furthermore, the NLFA-to-PLFA ratio for (13)C-incorporation from acetate increased in warmed plots but not in fertilized ones. Thus, fertilization cannot be used as a proxy for effects on warming in arctic tundra soils. Furthermore, the different functional responses suggest that the biomass increase found in both fertilized and warmed plots was mediated via different mechanisms.

Experimental climate warming decreases photosynthetic efficiency of lichens in an arid South African ecosystem.

PubMed

Maphangwa, Khumbudzo Walter; Musil, Charles F; Raitt, Lincoln; Zedda, Luciana

2012-05-01

Elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts accompanying climate warming in arid ecosystems are expected to have adverse effects on the photosynthesis of lichen species sensitive to elevated temperature and/or water limitation. This premise was tested by artificially elevating temperatures (increase 2.1-3.8°C) and reducing the amounts of fog and dew precipitation (decrease 30.1-31.9%), in an approximation of future climate warming scenarios, using transparent hexagonal open-top warming chambers placed around natural populations of four lichen species (Xanthoparmelia austroafricana, X. hyporhytida , Xanthoparmelia. sp., Xanthomaculina hottentotta) at a dry inland site and two lichen species (Teloschistes capensis and Ramalina sp.) at a humid coastal site in the arid South African Succulent Karoo Biome. Effective photosynthetic quantum yields ([Formula: see text]) were measured hourly throughout the day at monthly intervals in pre-hydrated lichens present in the open-top warming chambers and in controls which comprised demarcated plots of equivalent open-top warming chamber dimensions constructed from 5-cm-diameter mesh steel fencing. The cumulative effects of the elevated temperatures and diminished precipitation amounts in the open-top warming chambers resulted in significant decreases in lichen [Formula: see text]. The decreases were more pronounced in lichens from the dry inland site (decline 34.1-46.1%) than in those from the humid coastal site (decline 11.3-13.7%), most frequent and prominent in lichens at both sites during the dry summer season, and generally of greatest magnitude at or after the solar noon in all seasons. Based on these results, we conclude that climate warming interacting with reduced precipitation will negatively affect carbon balances in endemic lichens by increasing desiccation damage and reducing photosynthetic activity time, leading to increased incidences of mortality.

Predominant role of water in regulating the tree-growth response to diurnal asymmetric warmin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Z.; Xia, J.; Cui, E.

2017-12-01

Growth of the Northern Hemisphere trees is affected by diurnal asymmetric warming, which is generally considered to touch off carbon assimilation and increment of carbon storage. Asymmetric effects of diurnal warming on vegetation greenness were validated in previous researches, however, the effect of diurnal warming on wood tissue which stores most carbon of a whole plant is still unknown. Here, we combined ring-width index (RWI), remote sensing-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and climate datasets to detect the effects of daytime and night-time warming on vegetation growth, respectively. Our results indicate that daytime warming enhances NDVI but has neutral effect on tree woody growth over the Northern Hemisphere. Response of wood growth to daytime warming is linearly regulated by soil water availability. The underlying mechanism of different response of canopy and wood growth to daytime warming may attribute to the biomass change, that is, allocation to foliage tissues increased at the expense of wood tissue under warming and water-limited conditions. Night-time warming show neutral effects on NDVI and RWI over the Northern Hemisphere, and the neutral Tmin-NDVI correlations result from the non-linear mediation of soil water availability. Our results highlight the current greening trend under daytime warming does not mean higher carbon sink capacity, the warming-drying climate may impair the large carbon sink of global forests.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

[Effects of climate warming and drying on millet yield in Gansu Province and related countermeasures].

PubMed

Cao, Ling; Wang, Qiang; Deng, Zhen-yong; Guo, Xiao-qin; Ma, Xing-xiang; Ning, Hui-fang

2010-11-01

Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation, and millet yield from Ganzhou, Anding, and Xifeng, the representative stations in Hexi moderate arid oasis irrigation area, moderate sub-arid dry area in middle Gansu, and moderate sub-humid dry area in eastern Gansu, respectively, this paper calculated the regional active accumulated temperature of > or = 0 degrees C, > or =5 degrees C, > or =10 degrees C, > or =15 degrees C, and > or =20 degrees C in millet growth period, and the average temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages. The millet climatic yield was isolated by orthogonal polynomial, and the change characteristics of climate and millet climatic yield as well as the effects of climate change on millet yield were analyzed by statistical methods of linear tendency, cumulative anomaly, and Mann-Kendall. The results showed that warming and drying were the main regional features in the modern climatic change of Gansu. The regional temperature had a significant upward trend since the early 1990s, while the precipitation was significantly reduced from the late 1980s. There were significant correlations between millet yield and climatic factors. The millet yield in dry areas increased with the increasing temperature and precipitation in millet key growth stages, and that in Hexi Corridor area increased with increasing temperature. Warming and drying affected millet yield prominently. The weather fluctuation index of regional millet yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou accounted for 73%, 72%, and 54% of real output coefficient variation, respectively, and the percentages increased significantly after warming. Warming was conducive to the increase of millet production, and the annual increment of millet climatic yield in Xifeng, Anding, and Ganzhou after warming was 30.6, 43.1, and 121.1 kg x hm(-2), respectively. Aiming at the warming and drying trend in Gansu Province in the future, the millet planting area in the Province should be further expanded, and the millet planting structure should be adjusted. At the same time, according to the different regional and yearly climatic types, different varieties should be selected, and various planting measures should be taken.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE PAGES

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; ...

2016-12-15

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.; Ban-Weiss, G.

2016-12-01

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.

Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vahmani, P.; Sun, F.; Hall, A.

The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling.more » Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using 'cool photovoltaics'.« less

Large impacts of climatic warming on growth of boreal forests since 1960.

PubMed

Kauppi, Pekka E; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

2014-01-01

Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome - more than ten million km2- important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China

PubMed Central

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J.; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-01

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change. PMID:26725308

Integrative Analysis of Desert Dust Size and Abundance Suggests Less Dust Climate Cooling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kok, Jasper F.; Ridley, David A.; Zhou, Qing; Miller, Ron L.; Zhao, Chun; Heald, Colette L.; Ward, Daniel S.; Albani, Samuel; Haustein, Karsten

2017-01-01

Desert dust aerosols affect Earths global energy balance through interactions with radiation, clouds, and ecosystems. But the magnitudes of these effects are so uncertain that it remains unclear whether atmospheric dust has a net warming or cooling effect on global climate. Consequently, it is still uncertain whether large changes in atmospheric dust loading over the past century have slowed or accelerated anthropogenic climate change, and the climate impact of possible future alterations in dust loading is similarly disputed. Here we use an integrative analysis of dust aerosol sizes and abundance to constrain the climatic impact of dust through direct interactions with radiation. Using a combination of observational, experimental, and model data, we find that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser than represented in current climate models. Since coarse dust warms global climate, the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) is likely less cooling than the 0.4 W m superscript 2 estimated by models in a current ensemble. We constrain the dust DRE to -0.20 (-0.48 to +0.20) W m superscript 2, which suggests that the dust DRE produces only about half the cooling that current models estimate, and raises the possibility that dust DRE is actually net warming the planet.

The long-term effects of planting and harvesting on secondary forest dynamics under climate change in northeastern China.

PubMed

Yao, Jing; He, Xingyuan; He, Hongshi; Chen, Wei; Dai, Limin; Lewis, Bernard J; Yu, Lizhong

2016-01-04

Unlike the virgin forest in the Changbaishan Nature Reserve in northeastern China, little research on a landscape scale has been conducted on secondary forests in the region under conditions of a warming climate. This research was undertaken in the upper Hun River region where the vegetation is representative of the typical secondary forest of northeastern China. The spatially explicit forest landscape model LANDIS was utilized to simulate the responses of forest restoration dynamics to anthropogenic disturbance (planting and harvesting) and evaluate the difference of the restoration process under continuation of current climatic conditions and climate warming. The results showed that: (1) The interaction of planting and harvesting has organizational scale effects on the forest. The combination of planting and harvesting policies has significant effects on the overall forest but not on individual species. (2) The area expansion of the historically dominant species Pinus koraiensis is less under climate warming than under continuation of current climatic conditions. These suggests that we should carefully take historically dominant species as the main focus for forest restoration, especially when they are near their natural distribution boundary, because they are probably less capable of successfully adapting to climate change.

Icehouse Effect: A Polar Autumn and Winter Cooling Trend

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wetzel, Peter J.

1999-01-01

The icehouse effect is a hypothesized polar climate trend toward cooling (or lack of warming) in response to greenhouse warming of adjacent lower latitudes. When greenhouse warmed air from lower latitudes moves over ice and snow, it generates a stronger, more stable, cappino, inversion than in a parallel case without greenhouse warming. Because the degree of decoupling between vertically adjacent air masses is directly dependent on the strength of the inversion, the capping inversion acts somewhat analogously to the walls and roof of the icehouse of generations past. What is inside the icehouse, namely the cold polar atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) air, is preserved by the "insulation" or decoupling, provided by the warm air aloft. Observations over the Arctic Ocean have shown an unexpected lack of any detectable surface warming trend over the past 40 years. This finding strongly contradicts climate model predictions that polar regions should show the strongest effect of greenhouse warming. It also stands in contrast to the consensus reached by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that human caused greenhouse warming is now detectable globally. One might ask: Are these Arctic observations wrong? Or, if right, is there a plausible physical explanation for them? The published observations mentioned above used about 50,000 soundings over the Arctic Ocean. Here I present a novel analysis of ALL available Arctic rawinsonde data north of 65N--a total of more than 1.1 million soundings. The analysis confirms the previously published result: There is indeed a slight climate-cooling trend in the vast majority of the data. Importantly, there are also select conditions (very strong and very weak stability of the ABL) which show a consistent, strong Arctic warming trend. It is the juxtaposition of these warming and cooling trends which defines a unique "icehouse signature" for which an explanation can be sought.

Regional Climate Impacts of Stabilizing Global Warming at 1.5 K Using Solar Geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Anthony C.; Hawcroft, Matthew K.; Haywood, James M.; Jones, Andy; Guo, Xiaoran; Moore, John C.

2018-02-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to well below 2 K above preindustrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 K, in order to avert dangerous climate change. However, current greenhouse gas emissions targets are more compatible with scenarios exhibiting end-of-century global warming of 2.6-3.1 K, in clear contradiction to the 1.5 K target. In this study, we use a global climate model to investigate the climatic impacts of using solar geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection to stabilize global-mean temperature at 1.5 K for the duration of the 21st century against three scenarios spanning the range of plausible greenhouse gas mitigation pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). In addition to stabilizing global mean temperature and offsetting both Arctic sea-ice loss and thermosteric sea-level rise, we find that solar geoengineering could effectively counteract enhancements to the frequency of extreme storms in the North Atlantic and heatwaves in Europe, but would be less effective at counteracting hydrological changes in the Amazon basin and North Atlantic storm track displacement. In summary, solar geoengineering may reduce global mean impacts but is an imperfect solution at the regional level, where the effects of climate change are experienced. Our results should galvanize research into the regionality of climate responses to solar geoengineering.

Response of the North American corn belt to climate warming, CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1983-08-01

The climate of the North American corn belt was characterized to estimate the effects of climatic change on that agricultural region. Heat and moisture characteristics of the current corn belt were identified and mapped based on a simulated climate for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The result was a map of the projected corn belt corresponding to the simulated climatic change. Such projections were made with and without an allowance for earlier planting dates that could occur under a CO2-induced climatic warming. Because the direct effects of CO2 increases on plants, improvements in farm technology, and plant breeding are not considered, the resulting projections represent an extreme or worst case. The results indicate that even for such a worst case, climatic conditions favoring corn production would not extend very far into Canada. Climatic buffering effects of the Great Lakes would apparently retard northeastward shifts in corn-belt location.

Climates of U.S. cities in the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krayenhoff, E. S.; Georgescu, M.; Moustaoui, M.

2017-12-01

Urban climates are projected to warm over the 21st century due to global climate change and urban development. To assess this projected warming, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations are performed at 20 km resolution over the contiguous U.S. for three 10-year periods: contemporary (2000-2009), mid-century (2050-2059), and end-of-century (2090-2099). Urban land use projections are derived from the EPA's ICLUS data set, and future climate projections are based on two global climate models and two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The potential for design implementations such as `green' roofs and high albedo roofs to offset the projected warming is considered. Effects of urban expansion, urban densification and infrastructure adaptation on urban climate are compared over the century. Assessment considers impacts at both seasonal and diurnal scales, isolates fair weather impacts, and considers multiple climate variables: air temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and surface energy budget partitioning.

Global Warming - Myth or Reality?, The Erring Ways of Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroux, Marcel

In the global-warming debate, definitive answers to questions about ultimate causes and effects remain elusive. In Global Warming: Myth or Reality? Marcel Leroux seeks to separate fact from fiction in this critical debate from a climatological perspective. Beginning with a review of the dire hypotheses for climate trends, the author describes the history of the 1998 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and many subsequent conferences. He discusses the main conclusions of the three IPCC reports and the predicted impact on global temperatures, rainfall, weather and climate, while highlighting the mounting confusion and sensationalism of reports in the media.

Evaluating the effects of ideology on public understanding of climate change science: how to improve communication across ideological divides?

PubMed

Zia, Asim; Todd, Anne Marie

2010-11-01

While ideology can have a strong effect on citizen understanding of science, it is unclear how ideology interacts with other complicating factors, such as college education, which influence citizens' comprehension of information. We focus on public understanding of climate change science and test the hypotheses: [H1] as citizens' ideology shifts from liberal to conservative, concern for global warming decreases; [H2] citizens with college education and higher general science literacy tend to have higher concern for global warming; and [H3] college education does not increase global warming concern for conservative ideologues. We implemented a survey instrument in California's San Francisco Bay Area, and employed regression models to test the effects of ideology and other socio-demographic variables on citizen concern about global warming, terrorism, the economy, health care and poverty. We are able to confirm H1 and H3, but reject H2. Various strategies are discussed to improve the communication of climate change science across ideological divides.

Simulated Warming Differentially Affects the Growth and Competitive Ability of Centaurea maculosa Populations from Home and Introduced Ranges

PubMed Central

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range) and North America (introduced range) under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors. PMID:22303485

Simulated warming differentially affects the growth and competitive ability of Centaurea maculosa populations from home and introduced ranges.

PubMed

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Climate warming may drive invasions by exotic plants, thereby raising concerns over the risks of invasive plants. However, little is known about how climate warming influences the growth and competitive ability of exotic plants from their home and introduced ranges. We conducted a common garden experiment with an invasive plant Centaurea maculosa and a native plant Poa pratensis, in which a mixture of sand and vermiculite was used as a neutral medium, and contrasted the total biomass, competitive effects, and competitive responses of C. maculosa populations from Europe (home range) and North America (introduced range) under two different temperatures. The warming-induced inhibitory effects on the growth of C. maculosa alone were stronger in Europe than in North America. The competitive ability of C. maculosa plants from North America was greater than that of plants from Europe under the ambient condition whereas this competitive ability followed the opposite direction under the warming condition, suggesting that warming may enable European C. maculosa to be more invasive. Across two continents, warming treatment increased the competitive advantage instead of the growth advantage of C. maculosa, suggesting that climate warming may facilitate C. maculosa invasions through altering competitive outcomes between C. maculosa and its neighbors. Additionally, the growth response of C. maculosa to warming could predict its ability to avoid being suppressed by its neighbors.

Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site

Treesearch

John E. Hobbie; Gaius R. Shaver; Edward B. Rastetter; Jessica E. Cherry; Scott J. Goetz; Kevin C. Guay; William A. Gould; George W. Kling

2017-01-01

Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-...

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

PubMed Central

Barnett, A.; Dobson, A.; McElduff, P.; Salomaa, V.; Kuulasmaa, K.; Sans, S.; t for

2005-01-01

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35–64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days. PMID:15965137

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production.

PubMed

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J; Classen, Aimée T; Reich, Peter B; He, Jin-Sheng

2018-04-17

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity.

CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models.

PubMed

Anderson, Thomas R; Hawkins, Ed; Jones, Philip D

2016-09-01

Climate warming during the course of the twenty-first century is projected to be between 1.0 and 3.7°C depending on future greenhouse gas emissions, based on the ensemble-mean results of state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs). Just how reliable are these projections, given the complexity of the climate system? The early history of climate research provides insight into the understanding and science needed to answer this question. We examine the mathematical quantifications of planetary energy budget developed by Svante Arrhenius (1859-1927) and Guy Stewart Callendar (1898-1964) and construct an empirical approximation of the latter, which we show to be successful at retrospectively predicting global warming over the course of the twentieth century. This approximation is then used to calculate warming in response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases during the twenty-first century, projecting a temperature increase at the lower bound of results generated by an ensemble of ESMs (as presented in the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This result can be interpreted as follows. The climate system is conceptually complex but has at its heart the physical laws of radiative transfer. This basic, or "core" physics is relatively straightforward to compute mathematically, as exemplified by Callendar's calculations, leading to quantitatively robust projections of baseline warming. The ESMs include not only the physical core but also climate feedbacks that introduce uncertainty into the projections in terms of magnitude, but not sign: positive (amplification of warming). As such, the projections of end-of-century global warming by ESMs are fundamentally trustworthy: quantitatively robust baseline warming based on the well-understood physics of radiative transfer, with extra warming due to climate feedbacks. These projections thus provide a compelling case that global climate will continue to undergo significant warming in response to ongoing emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houghton, John

2005-06-01

'Global warming' is a phrase that refers to the effect on the climate of human activities, in particular the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) and large-scale deforestation, which cause emissions to the atmosphere of large amounts of 'greenhouse gases', of which the most important is carbon dioxide. Such gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by the Earth's surface and act as blankets over the surface keeping it warmer than it would otherwise be. Associated with this warming are changes of climate. The basic science of the 'greenhouse effect' that leads to the warming is well understood. More detailed understanding relies on numerical models of the climate that integrate the basic dynamical and physical equations describing the complete climate system. Many of the likely characteristics of the resulting changes in climate (such as more frequent heat waves, increases in rainfall, increase in frequency and intensity of many extreme climate events) can be identified. Substantial uncertainties remain in knowledge of some of the feedbacks within the climate system (that affect the overall magnitude of change) and in much of the detail of likely regional change. Because of its negative impacts on human communities (including for instance substantial sea-level rise) and on ecosystems, global warming is the most important environmental problem the world faces. Adaptation to the inevitable impacts and mitigation to reduce their magnitude are both necessary. International action is being taken by the world's scientific and political communities. Because of the need for urgent action, the greatest challenge is to move rapidly to much increased energy efficiency and to non-fossil-fuel energy sources.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B.; Germino, Matthew; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S.; Mitton, Jeffry B.

2017-01-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest.

PubMed

Kueppers, Lara M; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Moyes, Andrew B; Germino, Matthew J; de Valpine, Perry; Torn, Margaret S; Mitton, Jeffry B

2017-06-01

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

DOE PAGES

Kueppers, Lara M.; Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; ...

2016-12-15

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, butmore » raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season-average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first-year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth-year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow-free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low-elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high-elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low-provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High- and low-elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high-provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.« less

Simulated climate warming alters phenological synchrony between an outbreak insect herbivore and host trees.

PubMed

Schwartzberg, Ezra G; Jamieson, Mary A; Raffa, Kenneth F; Reich, Peter B; Montgomery, Rebecca A; Lindroth, Richard L

2014-07-01

As the world's climate warms, the phenologies of interacting organisms in seasonally cold environments may advance at differing rates, leading to alterations in phenological synchrony that can have important ecological consequences. For temperate and boreal species, the timing of early spring development plays a key role in plant-herbivore interactions and can influence insect performance, outbreak dynamics, and plant damage. We used a field-based, meso-scale free-air forest warming experiment (B4WarmED) to examine the effects of elevated temperature on the phenology and performance of forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria) in relation to the phenology of two host trees, aspen (Populus tremuloides) and birch (Betula papyrifera). Results of our 2-year study demonstrated that spring phenology advanced for both insects and trees, with experimentally manipulated increases in temperature of 1.7 and 3.4 °C. However, tree phenology advanced more than insect phenology, resulting in altered phenological synchrony. Specifically, we observed a decrease in the time interval between herbivore egg hatch and budbreak of aspen in both years and birch in one year. Moreover, warming decreased larval development time from egg hatch to pupation, but did not affect pupal mass. Larvae developed more quickly on aspen than birch, but pupal mass was not affected by host species. Our study reveals that warming-induced phenological shifts can alter the timing of ecological interactions across trophic levels. These findings illustrate one mechanism by which climate warming could mediate insect herbivore outbreaks, and also highlights the importance of climate change effects on trophic interactions.

Projected warming portends seasonal shifts of stream temperatures in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.

2017-01-01

Climate warming is expected to increase stream temperatures in mountainous regions of western North America, yet the degree to which future climate change may influence seasonal patterns of stream temperature is uncertain. In this study, a spatially explicit statistical model framework was integrated with empirical stream temperature data (approximately four million bi-hourly recordings) and high-resolution climate and land surface data to estimate monthly stream temperatures and potential change under future climate scenarios in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem, USA and Canada (72,000 km2). Moderate and extreme warming scenarios forecast increasing stream temperatures during spring, summer, and fall, with the largest increases predicted during summer (July, August, and September). Additionally, thermal regimes characteristic of current August temperatures, the warmest month of the year, may be exceeded during July and September, suggesting an earlier and extended duration of warm summer stream temperatures. Models estimate that the largest magnitude of temperature warming relative to current conditions may be observed during the shoulder months of winter (April and November). Summer stream temperature warming is likely to be most pronounced in glacial-fed streams where models predict the largest magnitude (> 50%) of change due to the loss of alpine glaciers. We provide the first broad-scale analysis of seasonal climate effects on spatiotemporal patterns of stream temperature in the Crown of the Continent Ecosystem for better understanding climate change impacts on freshwater habitats and guiding conservation and climate adaptation strategies.

Effects of Temperature, Salinity and Fish in Structuring the Macroinvertebrate Community in Shallow Lakes: Implications for Effects of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brucet, Sandra; Boix, Dani; Nathansen, Louise W.; Quintana, Xavier D.; Jensen, Elisabeth; Balayla, David; Meerhoff, Mariana; Jeppesen, Erik

2012-01-01

Climate warming may lead to changes in the trophic structure and diversity of shallow lakes as a combined effect of increased temperature and salinity and likely increased strength of trophic interactions. We investigated the potential effects of temperature, salinity and fish on the plant-associated macroinvertebrate community by introducing artificial plants in eight comparable shallow brackish lakes located in two climatic regions of contrasting temperature: cold-temperate and Mediterranean. In both regions, lakes covered a salinity gradient from freshwater to oligohaline waters. We undertook day and night-time sampling of macroinvertebrates associated with the artificial plants and fish and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators within artificial plants and in pelagic areas. Our results showed marked differences in the trophic structure between cold and warm shallow lakes. Plant-associated macroinvertebrates and free-swimming macroinvertebrate predators were more abundant and the communities richer in species in the cold compared to the warm climate, most probably as a result of differences in fish predation pressure. Submerged plants in warm brackish lakes did not seem to counteract the effect of fish predation on macroinvertebrates to the same extent as in temperate freshwater lakes, since small fish were abundant and tended to aggregate within the macrophytes. The richness and abundance of most plant-associated macroinvertebrate taxa decreased with salinity. Despite the lower densities of plant-associated macroinvertebrates in the Mediterranean lakes, periphyton biomass was lower than in cold temperate systems, a fact that was mainly attributed to grazing and disturbance by fish. Our results suggest that, if the current process of warming entails higher chances of shallow lakes becoming warmer and more saline, climatic change may result in a decrease in macroinvertebrate species richness and abundance in shallow lakes. PMID:22393354

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO2 and CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kaufman, Yoram J.; Chou, Ming-Dah

1993-01-01

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50 percent of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model: 0.15 C during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5 C or 25 percent for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2 C or 20 percent for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling.

Ocean warming increases threat of invasive species in a marine fouling community.

PubMed

Sorte, Cascade J B; Williams, Susan L; Zerebecki, Robyn A

2010-08-01

We addressed the potential for climate change to facilitate invasions and precipitate shifts in community composition by testing effects of ocean warming on species in a marine fouling community in Bodega Harbor, Bodega Bay, California, USA. First, we determined that introduced species tolerated significantly higher temperatures than natives, suggesting that climate change will have a disproportionately negative impact on native species. Second, we assessed the temperature dependence of survival and growth by exposing juveniles to an ambient control temperature and increased temperatures predicted by ocean warming scenarios (+3 degrees C and +4.5 degrees C) in laboratory mesocosms. We found that responses differed between species, species origins, and demographic processes. Based on the temperature tolerance, survival, and growth results, we predict that, as ocean temperatures increase, native species will decrease in abundance, whereas introduced species are likely to increase in this system. Facilitation of invasions by climate change may already be underway; locally, invasive dominance has increased concurrent with ocean warming over the past approximately 40 years. We suggest that the effects of climate change on communities can occur via both direct impacts on the diversity and abundance of native species and indirect effects due to increased dominance of introduced species.

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: formidable challenges ahead.

PubMed

Ramanathan, V; Feng, Y

2008-09-23

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4 degrees C (1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4 degrees C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4 degrees C to 4.3 degrees C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1 degrees C to 3 degrees C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan-Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that approximately 25% (0.6 degrees C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6 degrees C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO(2) mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4 degrees C.

On avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system: Formidable challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Ramanathan, V.; Feng, Y.

2008-01-01

The observed increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) since the preindustrial era has most likely committed the world to a warming of 2.4°C (1.4°C to 4.3°C) above the preindustrial surface temperatures. The committed warming is inferred from the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of the greenhouse forcing and climate sensitivity. The estimated warming of 2.4°C is the equilibrium warming above preindustrial temperatures that the world will observe even if GHG concentrations are held fixed at their 2005 concentration levels but without any other anthropogenic forcing such as the cooling effect of aerosols. The range of 1.4°C to 4.3°C in the committed warming overlaps and surpasses the currently perceived threshold range of 1°C to 3°C for dangerous anthropogenic interference with many of the climate-tipping elements such as the summer arctic sea ice, Himalayan–Tibetan glaciers, and the Greenland Ice Sheet. IPCC models suggest that ≈25% (0.6°C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now. About 90% or more of the rest of the committed warming of 1.6°C will unfold during the 21st century, determined by the rate of the unmasking of the aerosol cooling effect by air pollution abatement laws and by the rate of release of the GHGs-forcing stored in the oceans. The accompanying sea-level rise can continue for more than several centuries. Lastly, even the most aggressive CO2 mitigation steps as envisioned now can only limit further additions to the committed warming, but not reduce the already committed GHGs warming of 2.4°C. PMID:18799733

Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

2018-01-01

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Microclimatic performance of a free-air warming and CO2 enrichment experiment in windy Wyoming, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In order to predict and plan for global changing climate experiments are being conducted in many countries, but few have monitored the effects of the climate change treatments (warming, elevated CO2) on the ecologically critical experimental plot microclimate. During three years of an eight year stu...

Simulated climate-warming increases Coleoptera activity-densities and reduces community diversity in a cereal crop

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

To assess one likely effect of global warming, we experimentally increased the temperature and precipitation of a coleopteran community (mainly Carabidae) of an agro-ecosystem. We simulated climate change on a field of spring wheat by experimentally increasing the temperature by 2°C using infrared h...

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zelikova, Tamara J.; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Wertin, Timothy M.; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-01-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Eco-evolutionary responses of Bromus tectorum to climate change: implications for biological invasions.

PubMed

Zelikova, Tamara J; Hufbauer, Ruth A; Reed, Sasha C; Wertin, Timothy; Fettig, Christa; Belnap, Jayne

2013-05-01

How plant populations, communities, and ecosystems respond to climate change is a critical focus in ecology today. The responses of introduced species may be especially rapid. Current models that incorporate temperature and precipitation suggest that future Bromus tectorum invasion risk is low for the Colorado Plateau. With a field warming experiment at two sites in southeastern Utah, we tested this prediction over 4 years, measuring B. tectorum phenology, biomass, and reproduction. In a complimentary greenhouse study, we assessed whether changes in field B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output influence offspring performance. We found that following a wet winter and early spring, the timing of spring growth initiation, flowering, and summer senescence all advanced in warmed plots at both field sites and the shift in phenology was progressively larger with greater warming. Earlier green-up and development was associated with increases in B. tectorum biomass and reproductive output, likely due early spring growth, when soil moisture was not limiting, and a lengthened growing season. Seeds collected from plants grown in warmed plots had higher biomass and germination rates and lower mortality than seeds from ambient plots. However, in the following two dry years, we observed no differences in phenology between warmed and ambient plots. In addition, warming had a generally negative effect on B. tectorum biomass and reproduction in dry years and this negative effect was significant in the plots that received the highest warming treatment. In contrast to models that predict negative responses of B. tectorum to warmer climate on the Colorado Plateau, the effects of warming were more nuanced, relied on background climate, and differed between the two field sites. Our results highlight the importance of considering the interacting effects of temperature, precipitation, and site-specific characteristics such as soil texture, on plant demography and have direct implications for B. tectorum invasion dynamics on the Colorado Plateau.

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Songlin; Li, Zongshan; Wang, Hao; von Arx, Georg; Lü, Yihe; Wu, Xing; Wang, Xiaochun; Liu, Guohua; Fu, Bojie

2016-06-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

Roots of forbs sense climate fluctuations in the semi-arid Loess Plateau: Herb-chronology based analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, S.

2016-12-01

Growth of herbaceous plants responds sensitively and rapidly to climate variability. Yet, little is known regarding how climate warming influences the growth of herbaceous plants, particularly in semi-arid sites. This contrasts with widely reported tree growth decline and even mortality in response to severe water deficits due to climate warming around the world. Here, we use the relatively novel approach of herb-chronology to analyze the correlation between climatic factors and annual ring width in the root xylem of two perennial forb species (Medicago sativa, Potentilla chinensis) in the Loess Plateau of China. We show that warming-induced water deficit has a significant negative effect on the growth of herbaceous plants in the Loess Plateau. Our results indicate that the growth of forbs responds rapidly and sensitively to drought variability, implying that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating the growth of herbaceous plants in semi-arid areas. If warming and drying in the Loess Plateau continue in the future, further affects the growth of herbaceous plants, potentially driving regional changes in the relationship between herbaceous vegetation and climate.

The Greenhouse Effect and Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Covey, C.; Haberle, R. M.; McKay, C. P.; Titov, D. V.

This chapter reviews the theory of the greenhouse effect and climate feedback. It also compares the theory with observations, using examples taken from all four known terrestrial worlds with substantial atmospheres: Venus, Earth, Mars, and Titan. The greenhouse effect traps infrared radiation in the atmosphere, thereby increasing surface temperature. It is one of many factors that affect a world's climate. (Others include solar luminosity and the atmospheric scattering and absorption of solar radiation.) A change in these factors — defined as climate forcing — may change the climate in a way that brings other processes — defined as feedbacks — into play. For example, when Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide increases, warming the surface, the water vapor content of the atmosphere increases. This is a positive feedback on global warming because water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas. Many positive and negative feedback processes are significant in determining Earth's climate, and probably the climates of our terrestrial neighbors.

Warming-Induced Decline of Picea crassifolia Growth in the Qilian Mountains in Recent Decades.

PubMed

Yu, Li; Huang, Lei; Shao, Xuemei; Xiao, Fengjing; Wilmking, Martin; Zhang, Yongxiang

2015-01-01

Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region.

Apocalypse soon? Dire messages reduce belief in global warming by contradicting just-world beliefs.

PubMed

Feinberg, Matthew; Willer, Robb

2011-01-01

Though scientific evidence for the existence of global warming continues to mount, in the United States and other countries belief in global warming has stagnated or even decreased in recent years. One possible explanation for this pattern is that information about the potentially dire consequences of global warming threatens deeply held beliefs that the world is just, orderly, and stable. Individuals overcome this threat by denying or discounting the existence of global warming, and this process ultimately results in decreased willingness to counteract climate change. Two experiments provide support for this explanation of the dynamics of belief in global warming, suggesting that less dire messaging could be more effective for promoting public understanding of climate-change research.

Responses of lichen communities to 18 years of natural and experimental warming.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Jägerbrand, Annika K; Chen, Shengbin; Molau, Ulf

2017-07-01

Climate change is expected to have major impacts on high alpine and arctic ecosystems in the future, but empirical data on the impact of long-term warming on lichen diversity and richness are sparse. This study report the effects of 18 years of ambient and experimental warming on lichens and vascular plant cover in two alpine plant communities, a dry heath with sparse canopy cover (54 %) and a mesic meadow with a more developed (67 %) canopy cover, in sub-arctic Sweden. The effects of long-term passive experimental warming using open top chambers (OTCs) on lichens and total vascular plant cover, and the impact of plant cover on lichen community parameters, were analysed. Between 1993 and 2013, mean annual temperature increased about 2 °C. Both site and experimental warming had a significant effect on cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness of lichens, and total plant canopy cover. Lichen cover increased in the heath under ambient conditions, and remained more stable under experimental warming. The negative effect on species richness and effective number of species was driven by a decrease in lichens under experimental warming in the meadow. Lichen cover, species richness, effective number of species evenness were negatively correlated with plant canopy cover. There was a significant negative impact on one species and a non-significant tendency of lower abundance of the most common species in response to experimental warming. The results from the long-term warming study imply that arctic and high alpine lichen communities are likely to be negatively affected by climate change and an increase in plant canopy cover. Both biotic and abiotic factors are thus important for future impacts of climate change on lichens. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species

PubMed Central

Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

2015-01-01

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. PMID:25376303

Climate warming increases biological control agent impact on a non-target species.

PubMed

Lu, Xinmin; Siemann, Evan; He, Minyan; Wei, Hui; Shao, Xu; Ding, Jianqing

2015-01-01

Climate change may shift interactions of invasive plants, herbivorous insects and native plants, potentially affecting biological control efficacy and non-target effects on native species. Here, we show how climate warming affects impacts of a multivoltine introduced biocontrol beetle on the non-target native plant Alternanthera sessilis in China. In field surveys across a latitudinal gradient covering their full distributions, we found beetle damage on A. sessilis increased with rising temperature and plant life history changed from perennial to annual. Experiments showed that elevated temperature changed plant life history and increased insect overwintering, damage and impacts on seedling recruitment. These results suggest that warming can shift phenologies, increase non-target effect magnitude and increase non-target effect occurrence by beetle range expansion to additional areas where A. sessilis occurs. This study highlights the importance of understanding how climate change affects species interactions for future biological control of invasive species and conservation of native species. © 2014 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd and CNRS.

Effects of Warming on Chlorophyll Degradation and Carbohydrate Accumulation of Alpine Herbaceous Species during Plant Senescence on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Shi, Changguang; Sun, Geng; Zhang, Hongxuan; Xiao, Bingxue; Ze, Bai; Zhang, Nannan; Wu, Ning

2014-01-01

Plant senescence is a critical life history process accompanied by chlorophyll degradation and has large implications for nutrient resorption and carbohydrate storage. Although photoperiod governs much of seasonal leaf senescence in many plant species, temperature has also been shown to modulate this process. Therefore, we hypothesized that climate warming would significantly impact the length of the plant growing season and ultimate productivity. To test this assumption, we measured the effects of simulated autumn climate warming paradigms on four native herbaceous species that represent distinct life forms of alpine meadow plants on the Tibetan Plateau. Conditions were simulated in open-top chambers (OTCs) and the effects on the degradation of chlorophyll, nitrogen (N) concentration in leaves and culms, total non-structural carbohydrate (TNC) in roots, growth and phenology were assessed during one year following treatment. The results showed that climate warming in autumn changed the senescence process only for perennials by slowing chlorophyll degradation at the beginning of senescence and accelerating it in the following phases. Warming also increased root TNC storage as a result of higher N concentrations retained in leaves; however, this effect was species dependent and did not alter the growing and flowering phenology in the following seasons. Our results indicated that autumn warming increases carbohydrate accumulation, not only by enhancing activities of photosynthetic enzymes (a mechanism proposed in previous studies), but also by affecting chlorophyll degradation and preferential allocation of resources to different plant compartments. The different responses to warming can be explained by inherently different growth and phenology patterns observed among the studied species. The results implied that warming leads to changes in the competitive balance among life forms, an effect that can subsequently shift vegetation distribution and species composition in communities. PMID:25232872

Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

2015-07-01

Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have tended to decline. Our results provide novel insights about the impact of climate change on bird communities. Significant lagged effects highlight the potential for altered species' interactions to drive observed climate change impacts, although some community changes may have been driven by more immediate responses to warming. In England, resident and short-distance migrant populations have increased in response to climate change, but potentially at the expense of long-distance migrants, habitat specialists and cold-associated species. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

PubMed Central

Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

2011-01-01

This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics. Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO2 Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees. Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation. In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

The impact of winter and spring temperatures on temperate tree budburst dates: results from an experimental climate manipulation.

PubMed

Fu, Yongshuo H; Campioli, Matteo; Deckmyn, Gaby; Janssens, Ivan A

2012-01-01

Budburst phenology is a key driver of ecosystem structure and functioning, and it is sensitive to global change. Both cold winter temperatures (chilling) and spring warming (forcing) are important for budburst. Future climate warming is expected to have a contrasting effect on chilling and forcing, and subsequently to have a non-linear effect on budburst timing. To clarify the different effects of warming during chilling and forcing phases of budburst phenology in deciduous trees, (i) we conducted a temperature manipulation experiment, with separate winter and spring warming treatments on well irrigated and fertilized saplings of beech, birch and oak, and (ii) we analyzed the observations with five temperature-based budburst models (Thermal Time model, Parallel model, Sequential model, Alternating model, and Unified model). The results show that both winter warming and spring warming significantly advanced budburst date, with the combination of winter plus spring warming accelerating budburst most. As expected, all three species were more sensitive to spring warming than to winter warming. Although the different chilling requirement, the warming sensitivity was not significantly different among the studied species. Model evaluation showed that both one- and two- phase models (without and with chilling, respectively) are able to accurately predict budburst. For beech, the Sequential model reproduced budburst dates best. For oak and birch, both Sequential model and the Thermal Time model yielded good fit with the data but the latter was slightly better in case of high parameter uncertainty. However, for late-flushing species, the Sequential model is likely be the most appropriate to predict budburst data in a future warmer climate.

Photoperiod cues and patterns of genetic variation limit phenological responses to climate change in warm parts of species’ range: Modeling diameter-growth cessation in coast Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Kevin R. Ford; Constance A. Harrington; J. Bradley St. Clair

2017-01-01

The phenology of diameter-growth cessation in trees will likely play a key role in mediating species and ecosystem responses to climate change. A common expectation is that warming will delay cessation, but the environmental and genetic influences on this process are poorly understood. We modeled the effects of temperature, photoperiod, and seed-source climate on...

Climatic warming and the future of bison as grazers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craine, Joseph M.; Towne, E. Gene; Miller, Mary; Fierer, Noah

2015-11-01

Climatic warming is likely to exacerbate nutritional stress and reduce weight gain in large mammalian herbivores by reducing plant nutritional quality. Yet accurate predictions of the effects of climatic warming on herbivores are limited by a poor understanding of how herbivore diet varies along climate gradients. We utilized DNA metabarcoding to reconstruct seasonal variation in the diet of North American bison (Bison bison) in two grasslands that differ in mean annual temperature by 6 °C. Here, we show that associated with greater nutritional stress in warmer climates, bison consistently consumed fewer graminoids and more shrubs and forbs, i.e. eudicots. Bison in the warmer grassland consumed a lower proportion of C3 grass, but not a greater proportion of C4 grass. Instead, bison diet in the warmer grassland had a greater proportion of N2-fixing eudicots, regularly comprising >60% of their protein intake in spring and fall. Although bison have been considered strict grazers, as climatic warming reduces grass protein concentrations, bison may have to attempt to compensate by grazing less and browsing more. Promotion of high-protein, palatable eudicots or increasing the protein concentrations of grasses will be critical to minimizing warming-imposed nutritional stress for bison and perhaps other large mammalian herbivores.

The biogeophysical effects of extreme afforestation in modeling future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ye; Yan, Xiaodong; Wang, Zhaomin

2014-11-01

Afforestation has been deployed as a mitigation strategy for global warming due to its substantial carbon sequestration, which is partly counterbalanced with its biogeophysical effects through modifying the fluxes of energy, water, and momentum at the land surface. To assess the potential biophysical effects of afforestation, a set of extreme experiments in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, the McGill Paleoclimate Model-2 (MPM-2), is designed. Model results show that latitudinal afforestation not only has a local warming effect but also induces global and remote warming over regions beyond the forcing originating areas. Precipitation increases in the northern hemisphere and decreases in southern hemisphere in response to afforestation. The local surface warming over the forcing originating areas in northern hemisphere is driven by decreases in surface albedo and increases in precipitation. The remote surface warming in southern hemisphere is induced by decreases in surface albedo and precipitation. The results suggest that the potential impact of afforestation on regional and global climate depended critically on the location of the forest expansion. That is, afforestation in 0°-15°N leaves a relatively minor impact on global and regional temperature; afforestation in 45°-60°N results in a significant global warming, while afforestation in 30°-45°N results in a prominent regional warming. In addition, the afforestation leads to a decrease in annual mean meridional oceanic heat transport with a maximum decrease in forest expansion of 30°-45°N. These results can help to compare afforestation effects and find areas where afforestation mitigates climate change most effectively combined with its carbon drawdown effects.

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

PubMed Central

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-01-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. PMID:24934878

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California.

PubMed

Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Maher, Sean P; Schneider, Adam C; Hammond, Talisin T; Jabis, Meredith D; Walsh, Rachel E; Iknayan, Kelly J; Walden, Genevieve K; Oldfather, Meagan F; Ackerly, David D; Beissinger, Steven R

2014-09-01

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature - collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate - particularly precipitation and water availability - is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land-use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local-scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Contribution to Arctic Climate Change from Countries in the Arctic Council

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, T.; MacCracken, M. C.

2013-12-01

The conventional accounting frameworks for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used today, established under the Kyoto Protocol 25 years ago, exclude short lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), and do not include regional effects on the climate. However, advances in climate science now suggest that mitigation of SLCPs can reduce up to 50% of global warming by 2050. It has also become apparent that regions such as the Arctic have experienced a much greater degree of anthropogenic warming than the globe as a whole, and that efforts to slow this warming could benefit the larger effort to slow climate change around the globe. A draft standard for life cycle assessment (LCA), LEO-SCS-002, being developed under the American National Standards Institute process, has integrated the most recent climate science into a unified framework to account for emissions of all radiatively significant GHGs and SLCPs. This framework recognizes four distinct impacts to the oceans and climate caused by GHGs and SLCPs: Global Climate Change; Arctic Climate Change; Ocean Acidification; and Ocean Warming. The accounting for Arctic Climate Change, the subject of this poster, is based upon the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential, which considers the incremental change to the Arctic surface temperature resulting from an emission of a GHG or SLCP. Results are evaluated using units of mass of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), which can be used by a broad array of stakeholders, including scientists, consumers, policy makers, and NGOs. This poster considers the contribution to Arctic Climate Change from emissions of GHGs and SLCPs from the eight member countries of the Arctic Council; the United States, Canada, Russia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Of this group of countries, the United States was the largest contributor to Arctic Climate Change in 2011, emitting 9600 MMT CO2e. This includes a gross warming of 11200 MMT CO2e (caused by GHGs, black and brown carbon, and warming effects of nitrogen oxides), which is offset by -1600 MMT CO2e in cooling (caused by organic carbon aerosols, sulfate aerosols, and cooling effects of nitrogen oxides). Russia, Canada, and all the Nordic Countries emitted 5300, 1100, and 300 MMT CO2e (net) in 2011, respectively. Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and carbonaceous aerosols were the largest contributors overall, though the significance of each varied by country. This work incorporates the research and methods developed by D. Shindell, G. Faluvegi, M. Jacobson, A. Hu, V. Ramanathan, and T. Bond.

Climate change effects on an endemic-rich edaphic flora: resurveying Robert H. Whittaker's Siskiyou sites (Oregon, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damschen, Ellen Ingman; Harrison, Susan; Grace, James B.

2010-01-01

Species with relatively narrow niches, such as plants restricted (endemic) to particular soils, may be especially vulnerable to extinction under a changing climate due to the enhanced difficulty they face in migrating to suitable new sites. To test for community-level effects of climate change, and to compare such effects in a highly endemic-rich flora on unproductive serpentine soils vs. the flora of normal (diorite) soils, in 2007 we resampled as closely as possible 108 sites originally studied by ecologist Robert H. Whittaker from 1949 to 1951 in the Siskiyou Mountains of southern Oregon, USA. We found sharp declines in herb cover and richness on both serpentine and diorite soils. Declines were strongest in species of northern biogeographic affinity, species endemic to the region (in serpentine communities only), and species endemic to serpentine soils. Consistent with climatic warming, herb communities have shifted from 1949-1951 to 2007 to more closely resemble communities found on xeric (warm, dry) south-facing slopes. The changes found in the Siskiyou herb flora suggest that biotas rich in narrowly distributed endemics may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a warming climate.

Local food web management increases resilience and buffers against global change effects on freshwaters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia-Cordero, Pablo; Ekvall, Mattias K.; Hansson, Lars-Anders

2016-07-01

A major challenge for ecological research is to identify ways to improve resilience to climate-induced changes in order to secure the ecosystem functions of natural systems, as well as ecosystem services for human welfare. With respect to aquatic ecosystems, interactions between climate warming and the elevated runoff of humic substances (brownification) may strongly affect ecosystem functions and services. However, we hitherto lack the adaptive management tools needed to counteract such global-scale effects on freshwater ecosystems. Here we show, both experimentally and using monitoring data, that predicted climatic warming and brownification will reduce freshwater quality by exacerbating cyanobacterial growth and toxin levels. Furthermore, in a model based on long-term data from a natural system, we demonstrate that food web management has the potential to increase the resilience of freshwater systems against the growth of harmful cyanobacteria, and thereby that local efforts offer an opportunity to secure our water resources against some of the negative impacts of climate warming and brownification. This allows for novel policy action at a local scale to counteract effects of global-scale environmental change, thereby providing a buffer period and a safer operating space until climate mitigation strategies are effectively established.

Species selection under long-term experimental warming and drought explained by climatic distributions.

PubMed

Liu, Daijun; Peñuelas, Josep; Ogaya, Romà; Estiarte, Marc; Tielbörger, Katja; Slowik, Fabian; Yang, Xiaohong; Bilton, Mark C

2018-03-01

Global warming and reduced precipitation may trigger large-scale species losses and vegetation shifts in ecosystems around the world. However, currently lacking are practical ways to quantify the sensitivity of species and community composition to these often-confounded climatic forces. Here we conducted long-term (16 yr) nocturnal-warming (+0.6°C) and reduced precipitation (-20% soil moisture) experiments in a Mediterranean shrubland. Climatic niche groups (CNGs) - species ranked or classified by similar temperature or precipitation distributions - informatively described community responses under experimental manipulations. Under warming, CNGs revealed that only those species distributed in cooler regions decreased. Correspondingly, under reduced precipitation, a U-shaped treatment effect observed in the total community was the result of an abrupt decrease in wet-distributed species, followed by a delayed increase in dry-distributed species. Notably, while partially correlated, CNG explanations of community response were stronger for their respective climate parameter, suggesting some species possess specific adaptations to either warming or drought that may lead to independent selection to the two climatic variables. Our findings indicate that when climatic distributions are combined with experiments, the resulting incorporation of local plant evolutionary strategies and their changing dynamics over time leads to predictable and informative shifts in community structure under independent climate change scenarios. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Large Impacts of Climatic Warming on Growth of Boreal Forests since 1960

PubMed Central

Kauppi, Pekka E.; Posch, Maximilian; Pirinen, Pentti

2014-01-01

Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO2 in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO2 concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome – more than ten million km2– important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo. PMID:25383552

Climate change enhances the negative effects of predation risk on an intermediate consumer.

PubMed

Miller, Luke P; Matassa, Catherine M; Trussell, Geoffrey C

2014-12-01

Predators are a major source of stress in natural systems because their prey must balance the benefits of feeding with the risk of being eaten. Although this 'fear' of being eaten often drives the organization and dynamics of many natural systems, we know little about how such risk effects will be altered by climate change. Here, we examined the interactive consequences of predator avoidance and projected climate warming in a three-level rocky intertidal food chain. We found that both predation risk and increased air and sea temperatures suppressed the foraging of prey in the middle trophic level, suggesting that warming may further enhance the top-down control of predators on communities. Prey growth efficiency, which measures the efficiency of energy transfer between trophic levels, became negative when prey were subjected to predation risk and warming. Thus, the combined effects of these stressors may represent an important tipping point for individual fitness and the efficiency of energy transfer in natural food chains. In contrast, we detected no adverse effects of warming on the top predator and the basal resources. Hence, the consequences of projected warming may be particularly challenging for intermediate consumers residing in food chains where risk dominates predator-prey interactions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Simulating global and local surface temperature changes due to Holocene anthropogenic land cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, F.; Vavrus, S. J.; Kutzbach, J. E.; Ruddiman, W. F.; Kaplan, J. O.; Krumhardt, K. M.

2015-12-01

Surface albedo changes from anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) represent the second-largest negative radiative forcing behind aerosol during the industrial era. Using a new reconstruction of ALCC during the Holocene era by Kaplan et al. [2011], we quantify the local and global temperature response induced by Holocene ALCC in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). With 1-degree resolution of the CCSM4 slab-ocean model,we find that Holocene ALCC cause a global cooling of 0.17 °C due to the biogeophysical effects of land-atmosphere exchange of momentum, moisture, radiative and heat fluxes. On the global scale, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC from carbon emissions dominate the biogeophysical effects by causing 0.9 °C global warming. The net effects of Holocene ALCC amount to a global warming of 0.73 °C during the pre-industrial era, which is comparable to the ~0.8 °C warming during industrial times. On local to regional scales, such as parts of Europe, North America and Asia, the biogeophysical effects of Holocene ALCC are significant and comparable to the biogeochemical effect. The lack of ocean dynamics in the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations could underestimate the climate sensitivity because of the lack of feedbacks from ocean heat transport [Kutzbach et al., 2013; Manabe and Bryan, 1985]. In 1° CCSM4 fully coupled simulations, the climate sensitivity is ~65% larger than the 1° CCSM4 slab-ocean simulations during the Holocene (5.3 °C versus 3.2 °C) [Kutzbach et al., 2013]. With this greater climate sensitivity, the biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could have caused a global warming of ~1.5 °C, and the net biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of Holocene ALCC could cause a global warming of 1.2 °C during the preindustrial era in our simulations, which is 50% higher than the global warming of ~0.8 °C during industrial times.

Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

2018-06-01

Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming. PMID:27044083

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ellison, Aaron M; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-04-19

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming.

Shifting plant species composition in response to climate change stabilizes grassland primary production

PubMed Central

Liu, Huiying; Mi, Zhaorong; Lin, Li; Wang, Yonghui; Zhang, Zhenhua; Zhang, Fawei; Wang, Hao; Liu, Lingli; Zhu, Biao; Cao, Guangmin; Zhao, Xinquan; Sanders, Nathan J.; Reich, Peter B.

2018-01-01

The structure and function of alpine grassland ecosystems, including their extensive soil carbon stocks, are largely shaped by temperature. The Tibetan Plateau in particular has experienced significant warming over the past 50 y, and this warming trend is projected to intensify in the future. Such climate change will likely alter plant species composition and net primary production (NPP). Here we combined 32 y of observations and monitoring with a manipulative experiment of temperature and precipitation to explore the effects of changing climate on plant community structure and ecosystem function. First, long-term climate warming from 1983 to 2014, which occurred without systematic changes in precipitation, led to higher grass abundance and lower sedge abundance, but did not affect aboveground NPP. Second, an experimental warming experiment conducted over 4 y had no effects on any aspect of NPP, whereas drought manipulation (reducing precipitation by 50%), shifted NPP allocation belowground without affecting total NPP. Third, both experimental warming and drought treatments, supported by a meta-analysis at nine sites across the plateau, increased grass abundance at the expense of biomass of sedges and forbs. This shift in functional group composition led to deeper root systems, which may have enabled plant communities to acquire more water and thus stabilize ecosystem primary production even with a changing climate. Overall, our study demonstrates that shifting plant species composition in response to climate change may have stabilized primary production in this high-elevation ecosystem, but it also caused a shift from aboveground to belowground productivity. PMID:29666319

Global temperature responses to current emissions from the transport sectors

PubMed Central

Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan

2008-01-01

Transport affects climate directly and indirectly through mechanisms that cause both warming and cooling of climate, and the effects operate on very different timescales. We calculate climate responses in terms of global mean temperature and find large differences between the transport sectors with respect to the size and mix of short- and long-lived effects, and even the sign of the temperature response. For year 2000 emissions, road transport has the largest effect on global mean temperature. After 20 and 100 years the response in net temperature is 7 and 6 times higher, respectively, than for aviation. Aviation and shipping have strong but quite uncertain short-lived warming and cooling effects, respectively, that dominate during the first decades after the emissions. For shipping the net cooling during the first 4 decades is due to emissions of SO2 and NOx. On a longer timescale, the current emissions from shipping cause net warming due to the persistence of the CO2 perturbation. If emissions stay constant at 2000 levels, the warming effect from road transport will continue to increase and will be almost 4 times larger than that of aviation by the end of the century. PMID:19047640

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kerr, R.A.

As scientists and politicians anxiously eye signs of global greenhouse warming, climatologists are finding the best evidence yet that a massive volcanic eruption can temporarily bring the temperature down a notch or two. Such a cooling could be enough to set the current global warming back more than a decade, confusing any efforts to link it to the greenhouse effect. By effectively eliminating some nonvolcanic climate changes from the record of the past 100 years, researchers have detected drops in global temperature of several tenths of a degree within 1 to 2 years of volcanic eruptions. Apparently, the debris spewedmore » into the stratosphere blocked sunlight and caused the temperature drops. For all their potential social significance, the climate effects of volcanoes have been hard to detect. The problem has been in identifying a volcanic cooling among the nearly continuous climate warmings and coolings of a similar size that fill the record. The paper reviews how this was done.« less

Simulating the effects of soil organic nitrogen and grazing on arctic tundra vegetation dynamics on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Epstein, H. E.; Walker, D. A.

2009-12-01

Sustainability of tundra vegetation under changing climate on the Yamal Peninsula, northwestern Siberia, home to the world’s largest area of reindeer husbandry, is of crucial importance to the local native community. An integrated investigation is needed for better understanding of the effects of soils, climate change and grazing on tundra vegetation in the Yamal region. In this study we applied a nutrient-based plant community model (ArcVeg) to evaluate how two factors (soil organic nitrogen [SON] levels and grazing) interact to affect tundra responses to climate warming across a latitudinal climatic gradient on the Yamal Peninsula. Model simulations were driven by field-collected soil data and expected grazing patterns along the Yamal Arctic Transect (YAT), within bioclimate subzones C (High Arctic), D (northern Low Arctic) and E (southern Low Arctic). Plant biomass and NPP (net primary productivity) were significantly increased with warmer bioclimate subzones, greater soil nutrient levels and temporal climate warming, while they declined with higher grazing frequency. Temporal climate warming of 2 °C caused an increase of 665 g/m2 in total biomass at the high SON site in subzone E, while only 298 g/m2 in the low SON site. When grazing frequency was also increased, total biomass increased by only 369 g/m2 in the high SON site in contrast to 184 g/m2 in the low SON site in subzone E. When comparing low grazing to high grazing effects on soil organic nitrogen pools over time (Figure 1), higher grazing frequency led to either slower SON accumulation rates or more rapid SON depletion rates. Warming accentuated these differences caused by grazing, suggesting the interaction between grazing and warming may yield greater differences in SON levels across sites. Our results suggest that low SON and grazing may limit plant response to climate change. Interactions among bioclimate subzones, soils, grazing and warming significantly affect plant biomass and productivity in the arctic tundra and should not be ignored in regional scale studies.

Can reducing black carbon emissions counteract global warming?

PubMed

Bond, Tami C; Sun, Haolin

2005-08-15

Field measurements and model results have recently shown that aerosols may have important climatic impacts. One line of inquiry has investigated whether reducing climate-warming soot or black carbon aerosol emissions can form a viable component of mitigating global warming. We review and acknowledge scientific arguments against considering aerosols and greenhouse gases in a common framework, including the differences in the physical mechanisms of climate change and relevant time scales. We argue that such a joint consideration is consistent with the language of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. We synthesize results from published climate-modeling studies to obtain a global warming potential for black carbon relative to that of CO2 (680 on a 100 year basis). This calculation enables a discussion of cost-effectiveness for mitigating the largest sources of black carbon. We find that many emission reductions are either expensive or difficult to enact when compared with greenhouse gases, particularly in Annex I countries. Finally, we propose a role for black carbon in climate mitigation strategies that is consistent with the apparently conflicting arguments raised during our discussion. Addressing these emissions is a promising way to reduce climatic interference primarily for nations that have not yet agreed to address greenhouse gas emissions and provides the potential for a parallel climate agreement.

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Changes in extremes due to half a degree warming in observations and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, E. M.; Schleussner, C. F.; Pfleiderer, P.

2017-12-01

Assessing the climate impacts of half-a-degree warming increments is high on the post-Paris science agenda. Discriminating those effects is particularly challenging for climate extremes such as heavy precipitation and heat extremes for which model uncertainties are generally large, and for which internal variability is so important that it can easily offset or strongly amplify the forced local changes induced by half a degree warming. Despite these challenges we provide evidence for large-scale changes in the intensity and frequency of climate extremes due to half a degree warming. We first assess the difference in extreme climate indicators in observational data for the 1960s and 1970s versus the recent past, two periods differ by half a degree. We identify distinct differences for the global and continental-scale occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes. We show that those observed changes in heavy precipitation and heat extremes broadly agree with simulated historical differences and are informative for the projected differences between 1.5 and 2°C warming despite different radiative forcings. We therefore argue that evidence from the observational record can inform the debate about discernible climate impacts in the light of model uncertainty by providing a conservative estimate of the implications of 0.5°C warming. A limitation of using the observational record arises from potential non-linearities in the response of climate extremes to a certain level of warming. We test for potential non-linearities in the response of heat and heavy precipitation extremes in a large ensemble of transient climate simulations. We further quantify differences between a time-window approach in a coupled model large ensemble vs. time-slice experiments using prescribed SST experiments performed in the context of the HAPPI-MIP project. Thereby we provide different lines of evidence that half a degree warming leads to substantial changes in the expected occurrence of heat and heavy precipitation extremes.

Has anthropogenic land-cover change been a significant climate forcing in the past? - An assessment for the Baltic Sea catchment area based on a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kleinen, Thomas; Brigitte Nielsen, Anne; Poska, Anneli; Samuelsson, Patrick; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari

2015-04-01

We reviewed the recent published scientific literature on land cover-climate interactions at the global and regional spatial scales with the aim to assess whether it is convincingly demonstrated that anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) has been (over the last centuries and millennia) a significant climate forcing at the global scale, and more specifically at the scale of the Baltic Sea catchment area. The conclusions from this review are as follows: i) anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response in the past is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects, and to the biogeochemical vs biogeophysical effects; ii) there is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback; iii) several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes; iv) palaeoecological studies indicate a major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the study region occurring between 6000 and 3000/2500 calendar years before present (cal. BP) (1) ; v) the only modelling study so far of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in Europe suggests that a deforestation of the magnitude of that reconstructed for the past (between 6000 and 200 cal BP) can produce changes in winter and summer temperatures of +/- 1°, the sign of the change depending on the season and the region (2). Thus, if ALCC and their biogeophysical effects did matter in the past, they should matter today and in the future. A still prevailing idea is that planting trees will mitigate climate warming through biogeochemical effects. Therefore, there is still an urgent need to better understand the biogeophysical effects on regional and continental climate of afforestation in the hemiboreal and boreal regions, and their significance in relation to the biogeochemical effects. (1) Trondman, A.-K. et al. (2014) Global Change Biology (2014), doi: 10.1111/gcb.12737 (2) Strandberg, G. et al. (2014) Climate of the Past 10, 661-680.

Effects of warming and clipping on ecosystem carbon fluxes across two hydrologically contrasting years in an alpine meadow of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

PubMed

Peng, Fei; You, Quangang; Xu, Manhou; Guo, Jian; Wang, Tao; Xue, Xian

2014-01-01

Responses of ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes to human disturbance and climatic warming will affect terrestrial ecosystem C storage and feedback to climate change. We conducted a manipulative experiment to investigate the effects of warming and clipping on soil respiration (Rs), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) in an alpine meadow in a permafrost region during two hydrologically contrasting years (2012, with 29.9% higher precipitation than the long-term mean, and 2013, with 18.9% lower precipitation than the long-tem mean). Our results showed that GEP was higher than ER, leading to a net C sink (measured by NEE) over the two growing seasons. Warming significantly stimulated ecosystem C fluxes in 2012 but did not significantly affect these fluxes in 2013. On average, the warming-induced increase in GEP (1.49 µ mol m(-2) s(-1)) was higher than in ER (0.80 µ mol m(-2) s(-1)), resulting in an increase in NEE (0.70 µ mol m(-2) s(-1)). Clipping and its interaction with warming had no significant effects on C fluxes, whereas clipping significantly reduced aboveground biomass (AGB) by 51.5 g m(-2) in 2013. These results suggest the response of C fluxes to warming and clipping depends on hydrological variations. In the wet year, the warming treatment caused a reduction in water, but increases in soil temperature and AGB contributed to the positive response of ecosystem C fluxes to warming. In the dry year, the reduction in soil moisture, caused by warming, and the reduction in AGB, caused by clipping, were compensated by higher soil temperatures in warmed plots. Our findings highlight the importance of changes in soil moisture in mediating the responses of ecosystem C fluxes to climate warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem.

Effects of Warming and Clipping on Ecosystem Carbon Fluxes across Two Hydrologically Contrasting Years in an Alpine Meadow of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

PubMed Central

Peng, Fei; You, Quangang; Xu, Manhou; Guo, Jian; Wang, Tao; Xue, Xian

2014-01-01

Responses of ecosystem carbon (C) fluxes to human disturbance and climatic warming will affect terrestrial ecosystem C storage and feedback to climate change. We conducted a manipulative experiment to investigate the effects of warming and clipping on soil respiration (Rs), ecosystem respiration (ER), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross ecosystem production (GEP) in an alpine meadow in a permafrost region during two hydrologically contrasting years (2012, with 29.9% higher precipitation than the long-term mean, and 2013, with 18.9% lower precipitation than the long-tem mean). Our results showed that GEP was higher than ER, leading to a net C sink (measured by NEE) over the two growing seasons. Warming significantly stimulated ecosystem C fluxes in 2012 but did not significantly affect these fluxes in 2013. On average, the warming-induced increase in GEP (1.49 µ mol m−2s−1) was higher than in ER (0.80 µ mol m−2s−1), resulting in an increase in NEE (0.70 µ mol m−2s−1). Clipping and its interaction with warming had no significant effects on C fluxes, whereas clipping significantly reduced aboveground biomass (AGB) by 51.5 g m−2 in 2013. These results suggest the response of C fluxes to warming and clipping depends on hydrological variations. In the wet year, the warming treatment caused a reduction in water, but increases in soil temperature and AGB contributed to the positive response of ecosystem C fluxes to warming. In the dry year, the reduction in soil moisture, caused by warming, and the reduction in AGB, caused by clipping, were compensated by higher soil temperatures in warmed plots. Our findings highlight the importance of changes in soil moisture in mediating the responses of ecosystem C fluxes to climate warming in an alpine meadow ecosystem. PMID:25291187

Specificity Responses of Grasshoppers in Temperate Grasslands to Diel Asymmetric Warming

PubMed Central

Wu, Tingjuan; Hao, Shuguang; Sun, Osbert Jianxin; Kang, Le

2012-01-01

Background Global warming is characterized by not only an increase in the daily mean temperature, but also a diel asymmetric pattern. However, most of the current studies on climate change have only concerned with the mean values of the warming trend. Although many studies have been conducted concerning the responses of insects to climate change, studies that address the issue of diel asymmetric warming under field conditions are not found in the literature. Methodology/Principal Findings We conducted a field climate manipulative experiment and investigated developmental and demographic responses to diel asymmetric warming in three grasshopper species (an early-season species Dasyhippus barbipes, a mid-season species Oedaleus asiaticus, and a late-season species Chorthippus fallax). It was found that warming generally advanced the development of eggs and nymphs, but had no apparent impacts on the hatching rate of eggs, the emergence rate of nymphs and the survival and fecundity of adults in all the three species. Nighttime warming was more effective in advancing egg development than the daytime warming. The emergence time of adults was differentially advanced by warming in the three species; it was advanced by 5.64 days in C. fallax, 3.55 days in O. asiaticus, and 1.96 days in D. barbipes. This phenological advancement was associated with increases in the effective GDDs accumulation. Conclusions/Significance Results in this study indicate that the responses of the three grasshopper species to warming are influenced by several factors, including species traits, developmental stage, and the thermal sensitivity of the species. Moreover, species with diapausing eggs are less responsive to changes in temperature regimes, suggesting that development of diapausing eggs is a protective mechanism in early-season grasshopper for avoiding the risk of pre-winter hatching. Our results highlight the need to consider the complex relationships between climate change and specificity responses of invertebrates. PMID:22848593

Receptive Audiences for Climate Change Education: Understanding Attitudes and Barriers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelly, L. D.; Luebke, J. F.; Clayton, S.; Saunders, C. D.; Matiasek, J.; Grajal, A.

2012-12-01

Much effort has been devoted to finding ways to explain climate change to uninterested audiences and encourage mitigation behaviors among dismissive audiences. Most approaches have focused on conveying information about climate change processes or threats. Here we report the results of a national survey designed to characterize the readiness of zoo and aquarium visitors to engage with the issue of climate change. Two survey forms, one focused primarily on attitudes (N=3,594) and another on behaviors (N=3,588), were administered concurrently in summer 2011 at 15 Association of Zoos and Aquariums accredited institutions. The attitudes survey used Global Warming's Six Americas segmentation protocols (climatechangecommunication.org) to compare climate change attitudes of zoo and aquarium visitors with the American public (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). Our results reveal that visitors are receptive audiences for climate change education and want to do more to address climate change. Even these favorable audiences, however, perceive barriers to engaging in the issue, signifying the importance of meeting the learning needs of those who acknowledge anthropogenic climate change, and not only of climate change 'deniers.' While 39% of the general public is 'concerned' or 'alarmed' about global warming, 64% of zoo and aquarium visitors fall into these two "Six Americas" segments. Visitors also differ from the national sample in key attitudinal characteristics related to global warming. For example, nearly two-thirds believe human actions are related to global warming, versus less than one-half of the general public; and approximately 60% think global warming will harm them personally, moderately or a great deal, versus less than 30% of the general public. Moreover, 69% of visitors would like to do more to address climate change. Despite zoo and aquarium visitors' awareness of climate change and motivation to address it, survey results indicate they experience barriers to engagement including (1) pessimism—50% of visitors are uncertain whether people will do what is needed to address global warming, and 30% think it is unlikely; (2) low self-efficacy—almost one-half of visitors believe they can personally have little to no impact on addressing climate change; and (3) perceived obstacles—when asked what is standing in their way of doing more to address climate change, over 90% of visitors reported at least one obstacle. The most frequently selected obstacles were lack of knowledge about which actions would be effective and concern about the cost of actions. Nevertheless, zoo visitors are slightly more optimistic about humans' capability to reduce global warming than the general public. Importantly, results also indicate that visitors' concern about climate change and participation in behaviors to address it vary with their sense of connection with animals and nature. Thus, this study offers guidance for the development of educational resources that meet visitors' needs while building on their emotional connections with animals. Our data suggest these resources will be more effective if they support social interactions that reinforce a person's inclination to address climate change, demonstrate the collective impact of individual actions, and aid informed decision-making about effective actions to address climate change.

Long-term monitoring of an amphibian community after a climate change- and infectious disease-driven species extirpation.

PubMed

Bosch, Jaime; Fernández-Beaskoetxea, Saioa; Garner, Trenton W J; Carrascal, Luis María

2018-06-01

Infectious disease and climate change are considered major threats to biodiversity and act as drivers behind the global amphibian decline. This is, to a large extent, based on short-term studies that are designed to detect the immediate and strongest biodiversity responses to a threatening process. What few long-term studies are available, although typically focused on single species, report outcomes that often diverge significantly from the short-term species responses. Here, we report the results of an 18-year survey of an amphibian community exposed to both climate warming and the emergence of lethal chytridiomycosis. Our study shows that the impacts of infectious disease are ongoing but restricted to two out of nine species that form the community, despite the fact all species can become infected with the fungus. Climate warming appears to be affecting four out of the nine species, but the response of three of these is an increase in abundance. Our study supports a decreasing role of infectious disease on the community, and an increasing and currently positive effect of climate warming. We caution that if the warming trends continue, the net positive effect will turn negative as amphibian breeding habitat becomes unavailable as water bodies dry, a pattern that already may be underway. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

The interactive effects of temperature and light on biological nitrogen fixation in boreal forests.

PubMed

Gundale, Michael J; Nilsson, Madeleine; Bansal, Sheel; Jäderlund, Anders

2012-04-01

Plant productivity is predicted to increase in northern latitudes as a result of climate warming; however, this may depend on whether biological nitrogen (N)-fixation also increases. We evaluated how the variation in temperature and light affects N-fixation by two boreal feather mosses, Pleurozium schreberi and Hylocomium splendens, which are the primary source of N-fixation in most boreal environments. We measured N-fixation rates 2 and 4 wk after exposure to a factorial combination of environments of normal, intermediate and high temperature (16.3, 22.0 and 30.3°C) and light (148.0, 295.7 and 517.3 μmol m(-2) s(-1)). Our results showed that P. schreberi achieved higher N-fixation rates relative to H. splendens in response to warming treatments, but that the highest warming treatment eventually caused N-fixation to decline for both species. Light strongly interacted with warming treatments, having positive effects at low or intermediate temperatures and damaging effects at high temperatures. These results suggest that climate warming may increase N-fixation in boreal forests, but that increased shading by the forest canopy or the occurrence of extreme temperature events could limit increases. They also suggest that P. schreberi may become a larger source of N in boreal forests relative to H. splendens as climate warming progresses. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

What Is the Atmosphere’s Effect on Earth's Surface Temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Xubin

2010-04-01

It is frequently stated in textbooks and scholarly articles that the surface temperature of Earth is 33°C warmer than it would be without the atmosphere and that this difference is due to the greenhouse effect. This Forum shows that the atmosphere effect leads to warming of only 20°C. This new conclusion requires a revision to all of the relevant literature in K-12, undergraduate, and graduate education material and to science papers and reports. The greenhouse effect on Earth's surface temperature is well understood qualitatively and is regarded as basic knowledge about Earth's climate and climate change. The 33°C warming has been used to quantify the greenhouse effect of greenhouse gases, or of greenhouse gases and clouds, in K-12 educational material (e.g., http://epa.gov/climatechange/kids/greenhouse.html), undergraduate freshman introductory textbooks on weather and climate [e.g., Ahrens, 2008], and graduate textbooks on climate [e.g., Peixoto and Oort, 1992]. Some textbooks and various other publications have less stringently attributed the warming to the greenhouse effect [e.g., Wallace and Hobbs, 2006; Le Treut et al., 2007; American Meteorological Society, 2000].

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Britten, Gregory L.; Lindsay, Keith; Long, Matthew; Doney, Scott C.; Mahowald, Natalie; Hoffman, Forrest; Randerson, James T.

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease by more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2.

PubMed

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R; McMaster, Gregory S

2016-10-11

Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO 2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO 2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2

PubMed Central

Reyes-Fox, Melissa; Steltzer, Heidi; LeCain, Daniel R.; McMaster, Gregory S.

2016-01-01

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant phenology, we investigated the individual and joint effects of warming and CO2 enrichment on a mixed-grass prairie plant community by following the development of six common grassland species and recording four major life history events. Our data support that, in a semi-arid system, while warming advances leaf emergence and flower production, it also expedites seed maturation and senescence at the species level. However, the additive effect can be an overall lengthening of the growing and reproductive seasons since CO2 enrichment, particularly when combined with warming, contributed to a longer growing season by delaying plant maturation and senescence. Fostering synthesis across multiple phenology datasets and identifying key factors affecting plant phenology will be vital for understanding regional plant community responses to climate change. PMID:27727235

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Warming and Resource Availability Shift Food Web Structure and Metabolism

PubMed Central

O'Connor, Mary I.; Piehler, Michael F.; Leech, Dina M.; Anton, Andrea; Bruno, John F.

2009-01-01

Climate change disrupts ecological systems in many ways. Many documented responses depend on species' life histories, contributing to the view that climate change effects are important but difficult to characterize generally. However, systematic variation in metabolic effects of temperature across trophic levels suggests that warming may lead to predictable shifts in food web structure and productivity. We experimentally tested the effects of warming on food web structure and productivity under two resource supply scenarios. Consistent with predictions based on universal metabolic responses to temperature, we found that warming strengthened consumer control of primary production when resources were augmented. Warming shifted food web structure and reduced total biomass despite increases in primary productivity in a marine food web. In contrast, at lower resource levels, food web production was constrained at all temperatures. These results demonstrate that small temperature changes could dramatically shift food web dynamics and provide a general, species-independent mechanism for ecological response to environmental temperature change. PMID:19707271

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae in subarctic bogs are more sensitive to soil warming in the growing season than in winter: the results of eight-year field climate manipulations.

PubMed

Tsyganov, Andrey N; Aerts, Rien; Nijs, Ivan; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Beyens, Louis

2012-05-01

Sphagnum-dwelling testate amoebae are widely used in paleoclimate reconstructions as a proxy for climate-induced changes in bogs. However, the sensitivity of proxies to seasonal climate components is an important issue when interpreting proxy records. Here, we studied the effects of summer warming, winter snow addition solely and winter snow addition together with spring warming on testate amoeba assemblages after eight years of experimental field climate manipulations. All manipulations were accomplished using open top chambers in a dry blanket bog located in the sub-Arctic (Abisko, Sweden). We estimated sensitivity of abundance, diversity and assemblage structure of living and empty shell assemblages of testate amoebae in the living and decaying layers of Sphagnum. Our results show that, in a sub-arctic climate, testate amoebae are more sensitive to climate changes in the growing season than in winter. Summer warming reduced species richness and shifted assemblage composition towards predominance of xerophilous species for the living and empty shell assemblages in both layers. The higher soil temperatures during the growing season also decreased abundance of empty shells in both layers hinting at a possible increase in their decomposition rates. Thus, although possible effects of climate changes on preservation of empty shells should always be taken into account, species diversity and structure of testate amoeba assemblages in dry subarctic bogs are sensitive proxies for climatic changes during the growing season. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-05-12

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical-ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes.

Amplified Arctic warming by phytoplankton under greenhouse warming

PubMed Central

Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Bader, Jürgen; Rolph, Rebecca; Kwon, Minho

2015-01-01

Phytoplankton have attracted increasing attention in climate science due to their impacts on climate systems. A new generation of climate models can now provide estimates of future climate change, considering the biological feedbacks through the development of the coupled physical–ecosystem model. Here we present the geophysical impact of phytoplankton, which is often overlooked in future climate projections. A suite of future warming experiments using a fully coupled ocean−atmosphere model that interacts with a marine ecosystem model reveals that the future phytoplankton change influenced by greenhouse warming can amplify Arctic surface warming considerably. The warming-induced sea ice melting and the corresponding increase in shortwave radiation penetrating into the ocean both result in a longer phytoplankton growing season in the Arctic. In turn, the increase in Arctic phytoplankton warms the ocean surface layer through direct biological heating, triggering additional positive feedbacks in the Arctic, and consequently intensifying the Arctic warming further. Our results establish the presence of marine phytoplankton as an important potential driver of the future Arctic climate changes. PMID:25902494

Climate warming and disease risks for terrestrial and marine biota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvell, C.D.; Mitchell, C.E.; Ward, J.R.; Altizer, S.; Dobson, A.P.; Ostfeld, R.S.; Samuel, M.D.

2002-01-01

Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

Climate Warming and Disease Risks for Terrestrial and Marine Biota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvell, C. Drew; Mitchell, Charles E.; Ward, Jessica R.; Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Samuel, Michael D.

2002-06-01

Infectious diseases can cause rapid population declines or species extinctions. Many pathogens of terrestrial and marine taxa are sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and humidity, creating synergisms that could affect biodiversity. Climate warming can increase pathogen development and survival rates, disease transmission, and host susceptibility. Although most host-parasite systems are predicted to experience more frequent or severe disease impacts with warming, a subset of pathogens might decline with warming, releasing hosts from disease. Recently, changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation events have had a detectable influence on marine and terrestrial pathogens, including coral diseases, oyster pathogens, crop pathogens, Rift Valley fever, and human cholera. To improve our ability to predict epidemics in wild populations, it will be necessary to separate the independent and interactive effects of multiple climate drivers on disease impact.

Can biomass responses to warming at plant to ecosystem levels be predicted by leaf-level responses?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, J.; Shao, J.; Zhou, X.; Yan, W.; Lu, M.

2015-12-01

Global warming has the profound impacts on terrestrial C processes from leaf to ecosystem scales, potentially feeding back to climate dynamics. Although numerous studies had investigated the effects of warming on C processes from leaf to plant and ecosystem levels, how leaf-level responses to warming scale up to biomass responses at plant, population, and community levels are largely unknown. In this study, we compiled a dataset from 468 papers at 300 experimental sites and synthesized the warming effects on leaf-level parameters, and plant, population and ecosystem biomass. Our results showed that responses of plant biomass to warming mainly resulted from the changed leaf area rather than the altered photosynthetic capacity. The response of ecosystem biomass to warming was weaker than those of leaf area and plant biomass. However, the scaling functions from responses of leaf area to plant biomass to warming were different in diverse forest types, but functions were similar in non-forested biomes. In addition, it is challenging to scale the biomass responses from plant up to ecosystem. These results indicated that leaf area might be the appropriate index for plant biomass response to warming, and the interspecific competition might hamper the scaling of the warming effects on plant and ecosystem levels, suggesting that the acclimation capacity of plant community should be incorporated into land surface models to improve the prediction of climate-C cycle feedback.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas; Fransen, Taryn; Fekete, Hanna; Winkler, Harald; Schaeffer, Roberto; Sha, Fu; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte

2016-06-30

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Climate warming increases biodiversity of small rodents by favoring rare or less abundant species in a grassland ecosystem.

PubMed

Jiang, Guangshun; Liu, Jun; Xu, Lei; Yu, Guirui; He, Honglin; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-06-01

Our Earth is facing the challenge of accelerating climate change, which imposes a great threat to biodiversity. Many published studies suggest that climate warming may cause a dramatic decline in biodiversity, especially in colder and drier regions. In this study, we investigated the effects of temperature, precipitation and a normalized difference vegetation index on biodiversity indices of rodent communities in the current or previous year for both detrended and nondetrended data in semi-arid grassland of Inner Mongolia during 1982-2006. Our results demonstrate that temperature showed predominantly positive effects on the biodiversity of small rodents; precipitation showed both positive and negative effects; a normalized difference vegetation index showed positive effects; and cross-correlation function values between rodent abundance and temperature were negatively correlated with rodent abundance. Our results suggest that recent climate warming increased the biodiversity of small rodents by providing more benefits to population growth of rare or less abundant species than that of more abundant species in Inner Mongolia grassland, which does not support the popular view that global warming would decrease biodiversity in colder and drier regions. We hypothesized that higher temperatures might benefit rare or less abundant species (with smaller populations and more folivorous diets) by reducing the probability of local extinction and/or by increasing herbaceous food resources. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.

Warming effects on permafrost ecosystem carbon fluxes associated with plant nutrients.

PubMed

Li, Fei; Peng, Yunfeng; Natali, Susan M; Chen, Kelong; Han, Tianfeng; Yang, Guibiao; Ding, Jinzhi; Zhang, Dianye; Wang, Guanqin; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jianchun; Liu, Futing; Yang, Yuanhe

2017-11-01

Large uncertainties exist in carbon (C)-climate feedback in permafrost regions, partly due to an insufficient understanding of warming effects on nutrient availabilities and their subsequent impacts on vegetation C sequestration. Although a warming climate may promote a substantial release of soil C to the atmosphere, a warming-induced increase in soil nutrient availability may enhance plant productivity, thus offsetting C loss from microbial respiration. Here, we present evidence that the positive temperature effect on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes may be weakened by reduced plant nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) concentrations in a Tibetan permafrost ecosystem. Although experimental warming initially enhanced ecosystem CO 2 uptake, the increased rate disappeared after the period of peak plant growth during the early growing season, even though soil moisture was not a limiting factor in this swamp meadow ecosystem. We observed that warming did not significantly affect soil extractable N or P during the period of peak growth, but decreased both N and P concentrations in the leaves of dominant plant species, likely caused by accelerated plant senescence in the warmed plots. The attenuated warming effect on CO 2 assimilation during the late growing season was associated with lowered leaf N and P concentrations. These findings suggest that warming-mediated nutrient changes may not always benefit ecosystem C uptake in permafrost regions, making our ability to predict the C balance in these warming-sensitive ecosystems more challenging than previously thought. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Nazarenko, Larissa

2004-01-13

Plausible estimates for the effect of soot on snow and ice albedos (1.5% in the Arctic and 3% in Northern Hemisphere land areas) yield a climate forcing of +0.3 W/m(2) in the Northern Hemisphere. The "efficacy" of this forcing is approximately 2, i.e., for a given forcing it is twice as effective as CO(2) in altering global surface air temperature. This indirect soot forcing may have contributed to global warming of the past century, including the trend toward early springs in the Northern Hemisphere, thinning Arctic sea ice, and melting land ice and permafrost. If, as we suggest, melting ice and sea level rise define the level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, then reducing soot emissions, thus restoring snow albedos to pristine high values, would have the double benefit of reducing global warming and raising the global temperature level at which dangerous anthropogenic interference occurs. However, soot contributions to climate change do not alter the conclusion that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been the main cause of recent global warming and will be the predominant climate forcing in the future.

Detecting climate forcing and feedback signals in surface climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2015-04-01

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous feedback processes which can introduce strong, regionalized asymmetries to the overall warming trend. These processes alter the surface energy budget, and thus affect the surface air temperature, which is one of the primary measures of how the climate is changing. However, the degree to which a given forcing or feedback process alters surface temperatures is contingent on the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere which is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, which can lead to a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. Therefore, if a climate forcing or feedback is acting across a wide range of conditions of the boundary layer, then this non-linear response of the surface climate to perturbations in the forcing must be accounted for in order to correctly assess the effect of the forcing on the surface climatology.

DOE Final Report on Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, C. Adam; Melillo, Jerry M.

2015-11-03

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

Collaborative Research. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks of the Terrestrial Biosphere under Thawing Permafrost Conditions in the Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhuang, Qianlai; Schlosser, Courtney; Melillo, Jerry

2015-09-15

Our overall goal is to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically-forced climate warming, and the conditions under which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes to the landscape of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, across the Arctic. Through a suite of numerical experiments thatmore » encapsulate the fundamental processes governing methane emissions and carbon exchanges – as well as their coupling to the global climate system - we intend to test the following hypothesis in the proposed research: There exists a climate warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and stimulates large increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and poorly-drained wetland areas upon thawing permafrost along with microbial metabolic responses to higher temperatures) and increases in carbon dioxide emissions from well-drained areas. Besides changes in biogeochemistry, this threshold will also influence global energy dynamics through effects on surface albedo, evapotranspiration and water vapor. These changes would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands and higher plant photosynthesis) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.« less

Resource Letter: GW-1: Global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Firor, John W.

1994-06-01

This Resource Letter provides a guide to the literature on the possibility of a human-induced climate change—a global warming. Journal articles and books are cited for the following topics: the Greenhouse Effect, sources of infrared-trapping gases, climate models and their uncertainties, verification of climate models, past climate changes, and economics, ethics, and politics of policy responses to climate change. [The letter E after an item indicates elementary level or material of general interest to persons becoming informed in the field. The letter I, for intermediate level, indicates material of somewhat more specialized nature, and the letter A indicates rather specialized or advanced material.

Control of Fossil-Fuel Particulate Black Carbon and Organic Matter, the Most Effective Method of Slowing Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.

2001-12-01

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which seven new particles feedbacks to climate are identified, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) will slow global warming more than will any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a definite time period. When all f.f. BC+OM and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions are eliminated together, that period is 20-90 years. It is also found that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse-gas plus f.f. BC+OM warming minus anthropogenic sulfate cooling. Eliminating all f.f. BC+OM could eliminate more than 40 percent of such net warming within three years if no other changes occurred. Reducing CO2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars warm climate more than do equivalent gasoline cars; thus, fuel- and carbon-tax laws that favor diesel promote global warming.

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.

PubMed

Elmhagen, Bodil; Kindberg, Jonas; Hellström, Peter; Angerbjörn, Anders

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Climate Change in the North American Arctic: A One Health Perspective.

PubMed

Dudley, Joseph P; Hoberg, Eric P; Jenkins, Emily J; Parkinson, Alan J

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases among human and animal populations within the Arctic and subarctic latitudes of North America. Warmer temperatures are expected to increase disease risks from food-borne pathogens, water-borne diseases, and vector-borne zoonoses in human and animal populations of Arctic landscapes. Existing high levels of mercury and persistent organic pollutant chemicals circulating within terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in Arctic latitudes are a major concern for the reproductive health of humans and other mammals, and climate warming will accelerate the mobilization and biological amplification of toxic environmental contaminants. The adverse health impacts of Arctic warming will be especially important for wildlife populations and indigenous peoples dependent upon subsistence food resources from wild plants and animals. Additional research is needed to identify and monitor changes in the prevalence of zoonotic pathogens in humans, domestic dogs, and wildlife species of critical subsistence, cultural, and economic importance to Arctic peoples. The long-term effects of climate warming in the Arctic cannot be adequately predicted or mitigated without a comprehensive understanding of the interactive and synergistic effects between environmental contaminants and pathogens in the health of wildlife and human communities in Arctic ecosystems. The complexity and magnitude of the documented impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems, and the intimacy of connections between their human and wildlife communities, makes this region an appropriate area for development of One Health approaches to identify and mitigate the effects of climate warming at the community, ecosystem, and landscape scales.

How does the dengue vector mosquito Aedes albopictus respond to global warming?

PubMed

Jia, Pengfei; Chen, Xiang; Chen, Jin; Lu, Liang; Liu, Qiyong; Tan, Xiaoyue

2017-03-11

Global warming has a marked influence on the life cycle of epidemic vectors as well as their interactions with human beings. The Aedes albopictus mosquito as the vector of dengue fever surged exponentially in the last decade, raising ecological and epistemological concerns of how climate change altered its growth rate and population dynamics. As the global warming pattern is considerably uneven across four seasons, with a confirmed stronger effect in winter, an emerging need arises as to exploring how the seasonal warming effects influence the annual development of Ae. albopictus. The model consolidates a 35-year climate dataset and designs fifteen warming patterns that increase the temperature of selected seasons. Based on a recently developed mechanistic population model of Ae. albopictus, the model simulates the thermal reaction of blood-fed adults by systematically increasing the temperature from 0.5 to 5 °C at an interval of 0.5 °C in each warming pattern. The results show the warming effects are different across seasons. The warming effects in spring and winter facilitate the development of the species by shortening the diapause period. The warming effect in summer is primarily negative by inhibiting mosquito development. The warming effect in autumn is considerably mixed. However, these warming effects cannot carry over to the following year, possibly due to the fact that under the extreme weather in winter the mosquito fully ceases from development and survives in terms of diapause eggs. As the historical pattern of global warming manifests seasonal fluctuations, this study provides corroborating and previously ignored evidence of how such seasonality affects the mosquito development. Understanding this short-term temperature-driven mechanism as one chain of the transmission events is critical to refining the thermal reaction norms of the epidemic vector under global warming as well as developing effective mosquito prevention and control strategies.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Millien, Virginie

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate. PMID:24454554

Scientists' views about attribution of global warming.

PubMed

Verheggen, Bart; Strengers, Bart; Cook, John; van Dorland, Rob; Vringer, Kees; Peters, Jeroen; Visser, Hans; Meyer, Leo

2014-08-19

Results are presented from a survey held among 1868 scientists studying various aspects of climate change, including physical climate, climate impacts, and mitigation. The survey was unique in its size, broadness and level of detail. Consistent with other research, we found that, as the level of expertise in climate science grew, so too did the level of agreement on anthropogenic causation. 90% of respondents with more than 10 climate-related peer-reviewed publications (about half of all respondents), explicitly agreed with anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) being the dominant driver of recent global warming. The respondents' quantitative estimate of the GHG contribution appeared to strongly depend on their judgment or knowledge of the cooling effect of aerosols. The phrasing of the IPCC attribution statement in its fourth assessment report (AR4)-providing a lower limit for the isolated GHG contribution-may have led to an underestimation of the GHG influence on recent warming. The phrasing was improved in AR5. We also report on the respondents' views on other factors contributing to global warming; of these Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) was considered the most important. Respondents who characterized human influence on climate as insignificant, reported having had the most frequent media coverage regarding their views on climate change.

Warm Rain Processes Over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GOES GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to a larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Warm Rain Processes over the Tropical Oceans and Implications on Climate Change: Results from TRMM and GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Wu, H. T.

2004-01-01

In this talk, we will first show results from TRMM data regarding the characteristics of warm rains over the tropical oceans, and the dependence of rate of warm rain production on sea surface temperature. Results lead to the hypothesis that warm rain production efficiency, i.e., autoconversion, may be increased in a warm climate. We use the GEOS-II GCM to test this hypothesis. Our modeling results show that in a climate with increased rate of autoconversion, the total rain amount is increased, with warm rain contributing to larger portion of the increase. The abundant rainout of warm precipitation causes a reduction of low and middle cloud amount due to rainout, and reduced high clouds due to less water vapor available for ice-phase convection. However, clod radiation feedback caused by the increased rainfall efficiency, leads to differential vertical heating/cooling producing a more unstable atmosphere, allowing, more intense, but isolated penetrative convection, with contracted anvils to develop. Results also show that increased autoconversion reduces the convective adjustment time scale, resulting in faster recycling of atmospheric water. Most interestingly, the increased low level heating associated with warm rain leads to more energetic Madden and Julian oscillations in the tropics, with well-defined eastward propagation. While reducing the autoconversion leads to an abundant mix of westward and eastward tropical disturbances on daily to weekly time scales. The crucial link of precipitation microphysical processes to climate change including the effects of aerosols will be discussed.

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-06-01

Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

Predator contributions to belowground responses to warming

DOE PAGES

Maran, A. M.; Pelini, S. L.

2016-09-26

Identifying the factors that control soil CO 2 emissions will improve our ability to predict the magnitude of climate change–soil ecosystem feedbacks. Despite the integral role of invertebrates in belowground systems, they are excluded from climate change models. Soil invertebrates have consumptive and nonconsumptive effects on microbes, whose respiration accounts for nearly half of soil CO 2 emissions. By altering the behavior and abundance of invertebrates that interact with microbes, invertebrate predators may have indirect effects on soil respiration. We examined the effects of a generalist arthropod predator on belowground respiration under different warming scenarios. Based on research suggesting invertebratesmore » may mediate soil CO 2 emission responses to warming, we predicted that predator presence would result in increased emissions by negatively affecting these invertebrates. We altered the presence of wolf spiders ( Pardosa spp.) in mesocosms containing a forest floor community. To simulate warming, we placed mesocosms of each treatment in ten open-top warming chambers ranging from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. As expected, CO 2 emissions increased under warming and we found an interactive effect of predator presence and warming, although the effect was not consistent through time. The interaction between predator presence and warming was the inverse of our predictions: Mesocosms with predators had lower respiration at higher levels of warming than those without predators. Carbon dioxide emissions were not significantly associated with microbial biomass. Here, we did not find evidence of consumptive effects of predators on the invertebrate community, suggesting that predator presence mediates response of microbial respiration to warming through nonconsumptive means. In our system, we found a significant interaction between warming and predator presence that warrants further research into mechanism and generality of this pattern to other systems.« less

Increased stem density and competition may diminish the positive effects of warming at alpine treeline.

PubMed

Wang, Yafeng; Pederson, Neil; Ellison, Aaron M; Buckley, Hannah L; Case, Bradley S; Liang, Eryuan; Julio Camarero, J

2016-07-01

The most widespread response to global warming among alpine treeline ecotones is not an upward shift, but an increase in tree density. However, the impact of increasing density on interactions among trees at treeline is not well understood. Here, we test if treeline densification induced by climatic warming leads to increasing intraspecific competition. We mapped and measured the size and age of Smith fir trees growing in two treelines located in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. We used spatial point-pattern and codispersion analyses to describe the spatial association and covariation among seedlings, juveniles, and adults grouped in 30-yr age classes from the 1860s to the present. Effects of competition on tree height and regeneration were inferred from bivariate mark-correlations. Since the 1950s, a rapid densification occurred at both sites in response to climatic warming. Competition between adults and juveniles or seedlings at small scales intensified as density increased. Encroachment negatively affected height growth and further reduced recruitment around mature trees. We infer that tree recruitment at the studied treelines was more cold-limited prior to 1950 and shifted to a less temperature-constrained regime in response to climatic warming. Therefore, the ongoing densification and encroachment of alpine treelines could alter the way climate drives their transitions toward subalpine forests. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Host and parasite thermal ecology jointly determine the effect of climate warming on epidemic dynamics.

PubMed

Gehman, Alyssa-Lois M; Hall, Richard J; Byers, James E

2018-01-23

Host-parasite systems have intricately coupled life cycles, but each interactor can respond differently to changes in environmental variables like temperature. Although vital to predicting how parasitism will respond to climate change, thermal responses of both host and parasite in key traits affecting infection dynamics have rarely been quantified. Through temperature-controlled experiments on an ectothermic host-parasite system, we demonstrate an offset in the thermal optima for survival of infected and uninfected hosts and parasite production. We combine experimentally derived thermal performance curves with field data on seasonal host abundance and parasite prevalence to parameterize an epidemiological model and forecast the dynamical responses to plausible future climate-warming scenarios. In warming scenarios within the coastal southeastern United States, the model predicts sharp declines in parasite prevalence, with local parasite extinction occurring with as little as 2 °C warming. The northern portion of the parasite's current range could experience local increases in transmission, but assuming no thermal adaptation of the parasite, we find no evidence that the parasite will expand its range northward under warming. This work exemplifies that some host populations may experience reduced parasitism in a warming world and highlights the need to measure host and parasite thermal performance to predict infection responses to climate change.

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of global warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the last 50 years based on a generalised temperature zone-elevation model.

PubMed

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961-2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of -6°C and -4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961-2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991-2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

PubMed Central

Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

2013-01-01

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

Coupled greenhouse warming and deep-sea acidification in the middle Eocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohaty, Steven M.; Zachos, James C.; Florindo, Fabio; Delaney, Margaret L.

2009-06-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) is an enigmatic warming event that represents an abrupt reversal in long-term cooling through the Eocene. In order to further assess the timing and nature of this event, we have assembled stable isotope and calcium carbonate concentration records from multiple Deep Sea Drilling Project and Ocean Drilling Program sites for the time interval between ˜43 and 38 Ma. Revised stratigraphy at several sites and compilation of δ18O records place peak warming during the MECO event at 40.0 Ma (Chron C18n.2n). The identification of the δ18O excursion at sites in different geographic regions indicates that the climatic effects of this event were globally extensive. The total duration of the MECO event is estimated at ˜500 ka, with peak warming lasting <100 ka. Assuming minimal glaciation in the late middle Eocene, ˜4°-6°C total warming of both surface and deep waters is estimated during the MECO at the study sites. The interval of peak warming at ˜40.0 Ma also coincided with a worldwide decline in carbonate accumulation at sites below 3000 m depth, reflecting a temporary shoaling of the calcite compensation depth. The synchroneity of deep-water acidification and globally extensive warming makes a persuasive argument that the MECO event was linked to a transient increase in atmospheric pCO2. The results of this study confirm previous reports of significant climatic instability during the middle Eocene. Furthermore, the direct link between warming and changes in the carbonate chemistry of the deep ocean provides strong evidence that changes in greenhouse gas concentrations exerted a primary control on short-term climate variability during this critical period of Eocene climate evolution.

Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parhi, P.; Giannini, A.; Lall, U.; Gentine, P.

2016-12-01

Assessing and managing risks posed by climate variability and change is challenging in the tropics, from both a socio-economic and a scientific perspective. Most of the vulnerable countries with a limited climate adaptation capability are in the tropics. However, climate projections, particularly of extreme precipitation, are highly uncertain there. The CMIP5 (Coupled Model Inter- comparison Project - Phase 5) inter-model range of extreme precipitation sensitivity to the global temperature under climate change is much larger in the tropics as compared to the extra-tropics. It ranges from nearly 0% to greater than 30% across models (O'Gorman 2012). The uncertainty is also large in historical gauge or satellite based observational records. These large uncertainties in the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes highlight the need to better understand how tropical precipitation extremes respond to warming. We hypothesize that one of the factors explaining the large uncertainty is due to differing sensitivities during different phases of warming. We consider the `growth' and `mature' phases of warming under climate variability case- typically associated with an El Niño event. In the remote tropics (away from tropical Pacific Ocean), the response of the precipitation extremes during the two phases can be through different pathways: i) a direct and fast changing radiative forcing in an atmospheric column, acting top-down due to the tropospheric warming, and/or ii) an indirect effect via changes in surface temperatures, acting bottom-up through surface water and energy fluxes. We also speculate that the insights gained here might be useful in interpreting the large sensitivity under climate change scenarios, since the physical mechanisms during the two warming phases under climate variability case, have some correspondence with an increasing and stabilized green house gas emission scenarios.

Attributing Contributions of Climate Feedbacks to the Seasonal Cycle of Surface Warming due to CO2 Increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sejas, S.; Cai, M.

2012-12-01

Surfing warming due to CO2 doubling is a robust feature of coupled general circulation models (GCM), as noted in the IPCC AR4 assessment report. In this study, the contributions of different climate feedbacks to the magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonality of the surface warming is examined using data from NCAR's CCSM4. In particular, a focus is placed on polar regions to see which feedbacks play a role in polar amplification and its seasonal pattern. A new climate feedback analysis method is used to isolate the surface warming or cooling contributions of both radiative and non-radiative (dynamical) climate feedbacks to the total (actual) surface temperature change given by the CCSM4. These contributions (or partial surface temperature changes) are additive and their total is approximately equal to the actual surface temperature change. What is found is that the effects of CO2 doubling alone warms the surface throughout with a maximum in polar regions, which indicates the CO2 forcing alone has a degree of polar warming amplification. Water vapor feedback is a positive feedback throughout but is most responsible for the surface warming found in the tropics. Polar warming amplification is found to be strongest away from summer (especially in NH), which is primarily caused by a positive feedback due to cloud feedbacks but with the surface temperature change due to the CO2 forcing alone and the ocean dynamics and storage feedback also playing an important role. Contrary to popular belief, surface albedo feedback (SAF) does not account for much of the polar amplification. SAF tries to amplify polar warming, but in summer. No major polar amplification is seen in summer for the actual surface temperature, so SAF is not the feedback responsible for polar amplification. This is actually a consequence of the ocean dynamics and storage feedback, which negates the effects of SAF to a large degree.

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Microbial responses to multi-factor climate change: effects on soil enzymes.

PubMed

Steinweg, J Megan; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Paul, Eldor A; Wallenstein, Matthew D

2013-01-01

The activities of extracellular enzymes, the proximate agents of decomposition in soils, are known to depend strongly on temperature, but less is known about how they respond to changes in precipitation patterns, and the interaction of these two components of climate change. Both enzyme production and turnover can be affected by changes in temperature and soil moisture, thus it is difficult to predict how enzyme pool size may respond to altered climate. Soils from the Boston-Area Climate Experiment (BACE), which is located in an old field (on abandoned farmland), were used to examine how climate variables affect enzyme activities and microbial biomass carbon (MBC) in different seasons and in soils exposed to a combination of three levels of precipitation treatments (ambient, 150% of ambient during growing season, and 50% of ambient year-round) and four levels of warming treatments (unwarmed to ~4°C above ambient) over the course of a year. Warming, precipitation and season had very little effect on potential enzyme activity. Most models assume that enzyme dynamics follow microbial biomass, because enzyme production should be directly controlled by the size and activity of microbial biomass. We observed differences among seasons and treatments in mass-specific potential enzyme activity, suggesting that this assumption is invalid. In June 2009, mass-specific potential enzyme activity, using chloroform fumigation-extraction MBC, increased with temperature, peaking under medium warming and then declining under the highest warming. This finding suggests that either enzyme production increased with temperature or turnover rates decreased. Increased maintenance costs associated with warming may have resulted in increased mass-specific enzyme activities due to increased nutrient demand. Our research suggests that allocation of resources to enzyme production could be affected by climate-induced changes in microbial efficiency and maintenance costs.

Impacts on regional climate of an afforestation scenario under a +2°C global warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strada, Susanna; Noblet-Ducoudré Nathalie, de; Marc, Stéfanon

2017-04-01

Through surface-atmosphere interactions (SAI), land-use and land-cover changes (LULCCs) alter atmospheric conditions with effects on climate at different scales, from local/regional (a few ten kilometres) (Pielke et al., 2011) to global scales (a few hundred kilometres) (Mahmood et al., 2014). Focusing on the regional scale, in the context of climate change, LULCCs may either enhance or dampen climate impacts via changes in SAI they may initiate. Those LULCC-driven atmospheric impacts could in turn influence e.g. the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, with consequences on mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite LULCC impacts on regional climate are largely discussed in the literature, in Europe information is missing on LULCC impacts under future climate conditions on a country scale (Galos et al., 2015). The latest COPs have urged the scientific community to explore the impacts of reduced global warming (1.5°C to a +2°C) on the Earth system. LULCCs will be one major tool to achieve such targets. In this framework, we investigate impacts on regional climate of a modified landscape under a +2°C climatic scenario. To this purpose, we performed sensitivity studies over western Europe with a fully coupled land-atmosphere regional climate model, WRF-ORCHIDEE (Drobinski et al., 2012, Stefanon et al., 2014). A +2°C scenario was selected among those proposed by the "Impact2C" project (Vautard et al., 2014), and the afforested land-cover scenario proposed in the RCP4.5 is prescribed. We have chosen the maximum extent of forest RCP4.5 simulates for Europe at the end of the 21st century. WRF-ORCHIDEE is fed with boundary atmospheric conditions from the global climate model LMDZ for PD (1971-2000) and the +2°C warming period for the LMDZ model (2028-2057). Preliminary results over the target domain show that, under a +2°C global warming scenario, afforestation contributes by 2% to the total warming due to both climate change and LULCCs. During summer, the afforestation of 1000 km2 increases the mean surface atmospheric temperature by +0.18°C. However, during the same season, afforestation reduces the occurrence of extreme temperatures (> 30°C). By analysing LULCC impacts on both mean climate and extremes, this study aims to possibly raise awareness among decision-makers and land planners on the role LULCCs may play in the context of climate change. References Drobinski, P., et al.: Model of the Regional Coupled Earth system (MORCE): Application to process and climate studies in vulnerable regions, Environ. Modell. Softw., 35, 1-18, 2012. Galos, B., et al.: Regional characteristics of climate change altering effects of afforestation, Environ. Res. Lett., 6, 2015. Mahmood, R., et al.: Land cover changes and their biogeophysical effects on climate, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 929-953, 2014. Pielke, R. A., et al.: Land use/land cover changes and climate: modeling analysis and observational evidence, WIREs Clim Change, 2(6), 828-850, 2011. Stefanon, M., et al.: Simulating the effect of anthropogenic vegetation land cover on heatwave temperatures over central France, Clim. Res., 60: 133-146, 2014. Vautard R., et al.: The European climate under a 2° C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 2014.

Peatland Microbial Carbon Use Under Warming using Isotopic Fractionation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutknecht, J.

2016-12-01

Peatlands are a critical natural resource, especially in their role as carbon sinks. Most of the world's peatlands are located in Northern ecosystems where the climate is changing at a rapid pace, and there is great interest and concern with how climate change will influence them. Although studies regarding the response of peatlands to climate change have emerged, the microbial mediation of C cycling in these systems is still less well understood. In this study, 13CPLFA analysis was used to characterize the microbial community and it's carbon use at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) Project. The SPRUCE project is an extensive study of the response of peatlands to climatic manipulation in the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota. Heating rods were installed in peatland plots where peat is being warmed at several levels including ambient, +2.5, +4.5, +6.75, and +9 degrees Celsius, at a depth of 3 meters, beginning July of 2014. Samples were taken June 2014, September 2014, and June 2015, throughout the depth profile. We found very high microbial, and especially fungal growth at shallow depths, owing in part to the influence of fungal-like lipids present in Sphagnum stems, and in part to dense mycorrhizal colonization in shrub and tree species. Isotopic data shows that microbial biomass has an enriched δ13C lower in the peat profile, indicating as expected that microbes at depth utilize older carbon or carbon more enriched in 13C. The increase over depth in the δ13C signature may also reflect the increased dominance of pre-industrial carbon that is more enriched in 13C. In this early period of warming we did not see clear effects of warming, either due to the highly heterogeneous microbial growth across the bog, or to the short term deep warming only. We expect that with the initiation of aboveground warming in July 2016, warming will begin to show stronger effects on microbial C cycling.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming.

PubMed

Crowther, T W; Todd-Brown, K E O; Rowe, C W; Wieder, W R; Carey, J C; Machmuller, M B; Snoek, B L; Fang, S; Zhou, G; Allison, S D; Blair, J M; Bridgham, S D; Burton, A J; Carrillo, Y; Reich, P B; Clark, J S; Classen, A T; Dijkstra, F A; Elberling, B; Emmett, B A; Estiarte, M; Frey, S D; Guo, J; Harte, J; Jiang, L; Johnson, B R; Kröel-Dulay, G; Larsen, K S; Laudon, H; Lavallee, J M; Luo, Y; Lupascu, M; Ma, L N; Marhan, S; Michelsen, A; Mohan, J; Niu, S; Pendall, E; Peñuelas, J; Pfeifer-Meister, L; Poll, C; Reinsch, S; Reynolds, L L; Schmidt, I K; Sistla, S; Sokol, N W; Templer, P H; Treseder, K K; Welker, J M; Bradford, M A

2016-11-30

The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crowther, T. W.; Todd-Brown, K. E. O.; Rowe, C. W.; Wieder, W. R.; Carey, J. C.; Machmuller, M. B.; Snoek, B. L.; Fang, S.; Zhou, G.; Allison, S. D.; Blair, J. M.; Bridgham, S. D.; Burton, A. J.; Carrillo, Y.; Reich, P. B.; Clark, J. S.; Classen, A. T.; Dijkstra, F. A.; Elberling, B.; Emmett, B. A.; Estiarte, M.; Frey, S. D.; Guo, J.; Harte, J.; Jiang, L.; Johnson, B. R.; Kröel-Dulay, G.; Larsen, K. S.; Laudon, H.; Lavallee, J. M.; Luo, Y.; Lupascu, M.; Ma, L. N.; Marhan, S.; Michelsen, A.; Mohan, J.; Niu, S.; Pendall, E.; Peñuelas, J.; Pfeifer-Meister, L.; Poll, C.; Reinsch, S.; Reynolds, L. L.; Schmidt, I. K.; Sistla, S.; Sokol, N. W.; Templer, P. H.; Treseder, K. K.; Welker, J. M.; Bradford, M. A.

2016-12-01

The majority of the Earth’s terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Using Interactive Technology to Support Students' Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varma, Keisha; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-08-01

In this work, we examine middle school students' understanding of the greenhouse effect and global warming. We designed and refined a technology-enhanced curriculum module called Global Warming: Virtual Earth. In the module activities, students conduct virtual experiments with a visualization of the greenhouse effect. They analyze data and draw conclusions about how individual variables effect changes in the Earth's temperature. They also carry out inquiry activities to make connections between scientific processes, the socio-scientific issues, and ideas presented in the media. Results show that participating in the unit increases students' understanding of the science. We discuss how students integrate their ideas about global climate change as a result of using virtual experiments that allow them to explore meaningful complexities of the climate system.

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE PAGES

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; ...

2018-03-01

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois

Climate change projections to the year 2100 may miss physical-biogeochemical feedbacks that emerge later from the cumulative effects of climate warming. In a coupled climate simulation to the year 2300, the westerly winds strengthen and shift poleward, surface waters warm, and sea ice disappears, leading to intense nutrient trapping in the Southern Ocean. The trapping drives a global-scale nutrient redistribution, with net transfer to the deep ocean. Ensuing surface nutrient reductions north of 30°S drive steady declines in primary production and carbon export (decreases of 24 and 41%, respectively, by 2300). Potential fishery yields, constrained by lower–trophic-level productivity, decrease bymore » more than 20% globally and by nearly 60% in the North Atlantic. Continued high levels of greenhouse gas emissions could suppress marine biological productivity for a millennium.« less

Will nitrogen deposition mitigate warming-increased soil respiration in a young subtropical plantation?

Treesearch

Xiaofei Liu; Zhijie Yang; Chengfang Lin; Christian P. Giardina; Decheng Xiong; Weisheng Lin; Shidong Chen; Chao Xu; Guangshui Chen; Jinsheng Xie; Yiqing Li; Yusheng Yang

2017-01-01

Global change such as climate warming and nitrogen (N) deposition is likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) cycling, including soil respiration (Rs), the largest CO2 source from soils to the atmosphere. To examine the effects of warming, N addition and their interactions on Rs, we...

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Warming Threatens Semi-arid Forests in Inner Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WU, X.; Liu, H.; Qi, Z.; Li, X.

2014-12-01

A line of evidences reveal an increasing tree growth decline and tree mortality mainly attributable to climate warming and the warming-mediated changes in drought and other processes (such as fire and insect dynamics) in many parts of world tropical, temperate and boreal forests. However, the growth responses to climate change of the widely distributed semi-arid forests are unclear. Here, we synthetically investigate the tree growth patterns during past decades and its interannual response to climate variations in Inner Asia combining the ground truth field survey and samplings, remote sensing observations and climate data. We identified a pervasive tree growth decline since mid-1990s in semi-arid forests in Inner Asia. The widely observed tree growth decline is dominantly attributable to warming-induced water stress during pre- and early growing season. Tree growth of semi-arid forests in Inner Asia is particularly susceptible to spring warming and has been suffering a prolonged growth limitation in recent decades due to spring warming-mediated water conditions. Additionally, we identified a much slower growth rate in younger trees and a lack of tree regeneration in these semi-arid forests. The widely observed forest growth reduction and lack of tree regeneration over semi-arid forests in Inner Asia could predictably exert great effects on forest structure, regionally/globally biophysical and biochemical processes and the feedbacks between biosphere and atmosphere. Notably, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be reasonably expected, especially in context of the increase frequency and severity of high temperature and heat waves and changes in forest disturbances, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi-arid forests. Given the potential risks of climate induced forest dieback, increased management attention to adaptation options for enhancing forest resistance and resilience to projected climate stress can be expected. However, the functionally realistic mechanisms beneath the pervasively climate-induced forest decline/dieback still remain unclear. Network-based long-term surveys and experiment studies are urgently needed for further understandings regarding the responses of forest/tree growth to climate warming/variations.

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

Treesearch

Natalie A. Griffiths; Paul J. Hanson; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Colleen M. Iversen; Anna M. Jensen; Avni Malhotra; Karis J. McFarlane; Richard J. Norby; Khachik Sargsyan; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Xiaoying Shi; Anthony P. Walker; Eric J. Ward; Jeffrey M. Warren; David J. Weston

2017-01-01

We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial...

Tropical forest soil microbes and climate warming: An Andean-Amazon gradient and `SWELTR'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nottingham, A.; Turner, B. L.; Fierer, N.; Whitaker, J.; Ostle, N. J.; McNamara, N. P.; Bardgett, R.; Silman, M.; Bååth, E.; Salinas, N.; Meir, P.

2017-12-01

Climate warming predicted for the tropics in the coming century will result in average temperatures under which no closed canopy forest exists today. There is, therefore, great uncertainty associated with the direction and magnitude of feedbacks between tropical forests and our future climate - especially relating to the response of soil microbes and the third of global soil carbon contained in tropical forests. While warming experiments are yet to be performed in tropical forests, natural temperature gradients are powerful tools to investigate temperature effects on soil microbes. Here we draw on studies from a 3.5 km elevation gradient - and 20oC mean annual temperature gradient - in Peruvian tropical forest, to investigate how temperature affects the structure of microbial communities, microbial metabolism, enzymatic activity and soil organic matter cycling. With decreased elevation, soil microbial diversity increased and community composition shifted, from taxa associated with oligotrophic towards copiotrophic traits. A key role for temperature in shaping these patterns was demonstrated by a soil translocation experiment, where temperature-manipulation altered the relative abundance of specific taxa. Functional implications of these community composition shifts were indicated by changes in enzyme activities, the temperature sensitivity of bacterial and fungal growth rates, and the presence of temperature-adapted iso-enzymes at different elevations. Studies from a Peruvian elevation transect indicated that soil microbial communities are adapted to long-term (differences with elevation) and short-term (translocation responses) temperature changes. These findings indicate the potential for adaptation of soil microbes in tropical soils to future climate warming. However, in order to evaluate the sensitivity of these processes to climate warming in lowland forests, in situ experimentation is required. Finally, we describe SWELTR (Soil Warming Experiment in Lowland Tropical Rainforest), a new soil warming experiment being undertaken on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, designed to improve our understanding of biogeochemical feedbacks to climate warming in lowland tropical forests.

Effects of warm and cold climate conditions on capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) in the eastern Bering Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Alexander G.; Strasburger, Wesley W.; Farley, Edward V.; Murphy, James M.; Coyle, Kenneth O.

2016-12-01

Climate warming has impacted the southern extent of sea ice in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS) ecosystem, leading to many changes in ocean conditions and food webs there. We explore how these changes have affected two key forage fish species, capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), examining the effects of climate change on this commercially important ecosystem in the EBS. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) data from surface trawls, size, and diet of capelin and Pacific herring were collected during a series of warm and cold years by fisheries oceanographic surveys conducted from mid-August to early October 2003 through 2011. Overall, mean CPUE for both species was higher in the northeastern Bering Sea [NEBS; capelin=1.2 kg/km2 (warm) and 40.0 kg/km2 (cold); herring=141.1 kg/km2 (warm) and 132.4 kg/km2 (cold)] relative to the southeastern Bering Sea [SEBS; capelin=0.2 kg/km2 (warm) and 5.8 kg/km2 (cold); herring=15.8 kg/km2 (warm) and 24.5 kg/km2 (cold)], irrespective of temperature conditions. Capelin mean CPUE was significantly lower during warm years than during cold years [p<0.001; 0.6 kg/km2 (warm), 19.0 kg/km2 (cold)]. Pacific herring mean CPUE was less variable between warm and cold years [p<0.001; 63.8 kg/km2 (warm), 66.2 kg/km2 (cold)], but was still significantly less during warm years than cold. Capelin and herring lengths remained relatively constant between climate periods. Capelin lengths were similar among oceanographic domains [104 mm (South Inner domain), 112 mm (South Middle domain), 107 mm (North Inner domain), and 104 mm (North Middle domain)], while herring were larger in domains further offshore [123 mm (South Inner domain), 232 mm (South Middle domain), 260 mm (South Outer domain), 129 mm (North Inner domain), and 198 mm (North Middle domain)]. Diets for both species were significantly different between climate periods. Large crustacean prey comprised a higher proportion of the diets in most regions during cold years. Age-0 walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) contributed >60% to the diets of Pacific herring in southern Middle Domain and >30% in the northern Middle domain during warm years. A switch to less energetic prey for these forage fishes during warm years may have implications for fitness and future recruitment. The shifts in the distribution and lower biomass of capelin in the EBS during warm years could lead to disruptions in energy pathways in this complex marine ecosystem.

The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease.

PubMed

Cohen, Jeremy M; Venesky, Matthew D; Sauer, Erin L; Civitello, David J; McMahon, Taegan A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Rohr, Jason R

2017-02-01

Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold- and warm-adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature-dependent susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted amphibian species to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found that the greatest susceptibility of cold- and warm-adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species-level variation in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common with climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Tributaries affect the thermal response of lakes to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Råman Vinnå, Love; Wüest, Alfred; Zappa, Massimiliano; Fink, Gabriel; Bouffard, Damien

2018-01-01

Thermal responses of inland waters to climate change varies on global and regional scales. The extent of warming is determined by system-specific characteristics such as fluvial input. Here we examine the impact of ongoing climate change on two alpine tributaries, the Aare River and the Rhône River, and their respective downstream peri-alpine lakes: Lake Biel and Lake Geneva. We propagate regional atmospheric temperature effects into river discharge projections. These, together with anthropogenic heat sources, are in turn incorporated into simple and efficient deterministic models that predict future water temperatures, river-borne suspended sediment concentration (SSC), lake stratification and river intrusion depth/volume in the lakes. Climate-induced shifts in river discharge regimes, including seasonal flow variations, act as positive and negative feedbacks in influencing river water temperature and SSC. Differences in temperature and heating regimes between rivers and lakes in turn result in large seasonal shifts in warming of downstream lakes. The extent of this repressive effect on warming is controlled by the lakes hydraulic residence time. Previous studies suggest that climate change will diminish deep-water oxygen renewal in lakes. We find that climate-related seasonal variations in river temperatures and SSC shift deep penetrating river intrusions from summer towards winter. Thus potentially counteracting the otherwise negative effects associated with climate change on deep-water oxygen content. Our findings provide a template for evaluating the response of similar hydrologic systems to on-going climate change.

Climate change and the oceans--what does the future hold?

PubMed

Bijma, Jelle; Pörtner, Hans-O; Yesson, Chris; Rogers, Alex D

2013-09-30

The ocean has been shielding the earth from the worst effects of rapid climate change by absorbing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 is driving the ocean along the pH gradient towards more acidic conditions. At the same time ocean warming is having pronounced impacts on the composition, structure and functions of marine ecosystems. Warming, freshening (in some areas) and associated stratification are driving a trend in ocean deoxygenation, which is being enhanced in parts of the coastal zone by upwelling of hypoxic deep water. The combined impact of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are already having a dramatic effect on the flora and fauna of the oceans with significant changes in distribution of populations, and decline of sensitive species. In many cases, the impacts of warming, acidification and deoxygenation are increased by the effects of other human impacts, such as pollution, eutrophication and overfishing. The interactive effects of this deadly trio mirrors similar events in the Earth's past, which were often coupled with extinctions of major species' groups. Here we review the observed impacts and, using past episodes in the Earth's history, set out what the future may hold if carbon emissions and climate change are not significantly reduced with more or less immediate effect. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Arctic tree-line reproduction in Canada and Siberia: Possible greenhouse effect?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, H.

1997-12-31

The arctic tree-line is sensitive to climatic changes as indicated by paleo-ecological studies, and it is predicted to respond strongly to global warming. Northern Canadian studies of tree-line reproduction spanning two decades demonstrate a widespread switch from infertility due to cold summers (early 1970`s) to pollen and cone production (1990s), in line with greenhouse warming predictions. Ecotonal cone formation is usually sporadic and localized, but this largescale reproductive shift, along a 1500 km transect, suggests widespread climatic warming since the 1970s. These Siberian studies (at 27 sites) represented only a modest fraction of the Eurasian tree-line, but the widespread fertilitymore » at so many locations, plus the extensive Canadian evidence, suggests that the predicted polar warming may be responsible. Whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climatic change, and whether it will be short or long-term, is unclear, and merits further study.« less

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1994-01-01

A resource for the teaching of the history and causes of climate change. Discusses evidence of climate change from the Viking era, early ice ages, the most recent ice age, natural causes of climate change, human-made causes of climate change, projections of global warming, and unequal warming. (LZ)

Winter climate limits subantarctic low forest growth and establishment.

PubMed

Harsch, Melanie A; McGlone, Matt S; Wilmshurst, Janet M

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52 °S, 169 °E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  =  -5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6 °C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally.

Winter Climate Limits Subantarctic Low Forest Growth and Establishment

PubMed Central

Harsch, Melanie A.; McGlone, Matt S.; Wilmshurst, Janet M.

2014-01-01

Campbell Island, an isolated island 600 km south of New Zealand mainland (52°S, 169°E) is oceanic (Conrad Index of Continentality  = −5) with small differences between mean summer and winter temperatures. Previous work established the unexpected result that a mean annual climate warming of c. 0.6°C since the 1940's has not led to upward movement of the forest limit. Here we explore the relative importance of summer and winter climatic conditions on growth and age-class structure of the treeline forming species, Dracophyllum longifolium and Dracophyllum scoparium over the second half of the 20th century. The relationship between climate and growth and establishment were evaluated using standard dendroecological methods and local climate data from a meteorological station on the island. Growth and establishment were correlated against climate variables and further evaluated within hierarchical regression models to take into account the effect of plot level variables. Winter climatic conditions exerted a greater effect on growth and establishment than summer climatic conditions. Establishment is maximized under warm (mean winter temperatures >7 °C), dry winters (total winter precipitation <400 mm). Growth, on the other hand, is adversely affected by wide winter temperature ranges and increased rainfall. The contrasting effect of winter warmth on growth and establishment suggests that winter temperature affects growth and establishment through differing mechanisms. We propose that milder winters enhance survival of seedlings and, therefore, recruitment, but increases metabolic stress on established plants, resulting in lower growth rates. Future winter warming may therefore have complex effects on plant growth and establishment globally. PMID:24691026

Arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis can mitigate the negative effects of night warming on physiological traits of Medicago truncatula L.

PubMed

Hu, Yajun; Wu, Songlin; Sun, Yuqing; Li, Tao; Zhang, Xin; Chen, Caiyan; Lin, Ge; Chen, Baodong

2015-02-01

Elevated night temperature, one of the main climate warming scenarios, can have profound effects on plant growth and metabolism. However, little attention has been paid to the potential role of mycorrhizal associations in plant responses to night warming, although it is well known that symbiotic fungi can protect host plants against various environmental stresses. In the present study, physiological traits of Medicago truncatula L. in association with the arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungus Rhizophagus irregularis were investigated under simulated night warming. A constant increase in night temperature of 1.53 °C significantly reduced plant shoot and root biomass, flower and seed number, leaf sugar concentration, and shoot Zn and root P concentrations. However, the AM association essentially mitigated these negative effects of night warming by improving plant growth, especially through increased root biomass, root to shoot ratio, and shoot Zn and root P concentrations. A significant interaction was observed between R. irregularis inoculation and night warming in influencing both root sucrose concentration and expression of sucrose synthase (SusS) genes, suggesting that AM symbiosis and increased night temperature jointly regulated plant sugar metabolism. Night warming stimulated AM fungal colonization but did not influence arbuscule abundance, symbiosis-related plant or fungal gene expression, or growth of extraradical mycelium, indicating little effect of night warming on the development or functioning of AM symbiosis. These findings highlight the importance of mycorrhizal symbiosis in assisting plant resilience to climate warming.

Seasonal exposure to drought and air warming affects soil Collembola and mites.

PubMed

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4 °C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length ≤ 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type.

Seasonal Exposure to Drought and Air Warming Affects Soil Collembola and Mites

PubMed Central

Xu, Guo-Liang; Kuster, Thomas M.; Günthardt-Goerg, Madeleine S.; Dobbertin, Matthias; Li, Mai-He

2012-01-01

Global environmental changes affect not only the aboveground but also the belowground components of ecosystems. The effects of seasonal drought and air warming on the genus level richness of Collembola, and on the abundance and biomass of the community of Collembola and mites were studied in an acidic and a calcareous forest soil in a model oak-ecosystem experiment (the Querco experiment) at the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL in Birmensdorf. The experiment included four climate treatments: control, drought with a 60% reduction in rainfall, air warming with a seasonal temperature increase of 1.4°C, and air warming + drought. Soil water content was greatly reduced by drought. Soil surface temperature was slightly increased by both the air warming and the drought treatment. Soil mesofauna samples were taken at the end of the first experimental year. Drought was found to increase the abundance of the microarthropod fauna, but reduce the biomass of the community. The percentage of small mites (body length 0.20 mm) increased, but the percentage of large mites (body length >0.40 mm) decreased under drought. Air warming had only minor effects on the fauna. All climate treatments significantly reduced the richness of Collembola and the biomass of Collembola and mites in acidic soil, but not in calcareous soil. Drought appeared to have a negative impact on soil microarthropod fauna, but the effects of climate change on soil fauna may vary with the soil type. PMID:22905210

Earlier snowmelt and warming lead to earlier but not necessarily more plant growth.

PubMed

Livensperger, Carolyn; Steltzer, Heidi; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wallenstein, Matthew; Weintraub, Michael N

2016-01-01

Climate change over the past ∼50 years has resulted in earlier occurrence of plant life-cycle events for many species. Across temperate, boreal and polar latitudes, earlier seasonal warming is considered the key mechanism leading to earlier leaf expansion and growth. Yet, in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, the timing of spring plant growth may also be cued by snowmelt, which may occur earlier in a warmer climate. Multiple environmental cues protect plants from growing too early, but to understand how climate change will alter the timing and magnitude of plant growth, experiments need to independently manipulate temperature and snowmelt. Here, we demonstrate that altered seasonality through experimental warming and earlier snowmelt led to earlier plant growth, but the aboveground production response varied among plant functional groups. Earlier snowmelt without warming led to early leaf emergence, but often slowed the rate of leaf expansion and had limited effects on aboveground production. Experimental warming alone had small and inconsistent effects on aboveground phenology, while the effect of the combined treatment resembled that of early snowmelt alone. Experimental warming led to greater aboveground production among the graminoids, limited changes among deciduous shrubs and decreased production in one of the dominant evergreen shrubs. As a result, we predict that early onset of the growing season may favour early growing plant species, even those that do not shift the timing of leaf expansion. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

A Congeneric Comparison Shows That Experimental Warming Enhances the Growth of Invasive Eupatorium adenophorum

PubMed Central

He, Wei-Ming; Li, Jing-Ji; Peng, Pei-Hao

2012-01-01

Rising air temperatures may change the risks of invasive plants; however, little is known about how different warming timings affect the growth and stress-tolerance of invasive plants. We conducted an experiment with an invasive plant Eupatorium adenophorum and a native congener Eupatorium chinense, and contrasted their mortality, plant height, total biomass, and biomass allocation in ambient, day-, night-, and daily-warming treatments. The mortality of plants was significantly higher in E. chinense than E. adenophorum in four temperature regimes. Eupatorium adenophorum grew larger than E. chinense in the ambient climate, and this difference was amplified with warming. On the basis of the net effects of warming, daily-warming exhibited the strongest influence on E. adenophorum, followed by day-warming and night-warming. There was a positive correlation between total biomass and root weight ratio in E. adenophorum, but not in E. chinense. These findings suggest that climate warming may enhance E. adenophorum invasions through increasing its growth and stress-tolerance, and that day-, night- and daily-warming may play different roles in this facilitation. PMID:22536425

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneathmore » dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting how climate change will alter ecosystem functioning.« less

Tropical warming and the dynamics of endangered primates.

PubMed

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Post, Eric

2010-04-23

Many primate species are severely threatened, but little is known about the effects of global warming and the associated intensification of El Niño events on primate populations. Here, we document the influences of the El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and hemispheric climatic variability on the population dynamics of four genera of ateline (neotropical, large-bodied) primates. All ateline genera experienced either an immediate or a lagged negative effect of El Niño events. ENSO events were also found to influence primate resource levels through neotropical arboreal phenology. Furthermore, frugivorous primates showed a high degree of interspecific population synchrony over large scales across Central and South America attributable to the recent trends in large-scale climate. These results highlight the role of large-scale climatic variation and trends in ateline primate population dynamics, and emphasize that global warming could pose additional threats to the persistence of multiple species of endangered primates.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

King penguin population threatened by Southern Ocean warming.

PubMed

Le Bohec, Céline; Durant, Joël M; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Stenseth, Nils C; Park, Young-Hyang; Pradel, Roger; Grémillet, David; Gendner, Jean-Paul; Le Maho, Yvon

2008-02-19

Seabirds are sensitive indicators of changes in marine ecosystems and might integrate and/or amplify the effects of climate forcing on lower levels in food chains. Current knowledge on the impact of climate changes on penguins is primarily based on Antarctic birds identified by using flipper bands. Although flipper bands have helped to answer many questions about penguin biology, they were shown in some penguin species to have a detrimental effect. Here, we present for a Subantarctic species, king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus), reliable results on the effect of climate on survival and breeding based on unbanded birds but instead marked by subcutaneous electronic tags. We show that warm events negatively affect both breeding success and adult survival of this seabird. However, the observed effect is complex because it affects penguins at several spatio/temporal levels. Breeding reveals an immediate response to forcing during warm phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation affecting food availability close to the colony. Conversely, adult survival decreases with a remote sea-surface temperature forcing (i.e., a 2-year lag warming taking place at the northern boundary of pack ice, their winter foraging place). We suggest that this time lag may be explained by the delay between the recruitment and abundance of their prey, adjusted to the particular 1-year breeding cycle of the king penguin. The derived population dynamic model suggests a 9% decline in adult survival for a 0.26 degrees C warming. Our findings suggest that king penguin populations are at heavy extinction risk under the current global warming predictions.

Taking Up the Security Challenge of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-26

Climate change , in which man-made global warming is a major factor, will likely have dramatic and long-lasting consequences with profound security...effects of climate change are greatest, particularly in weak states that are already vulnerable to environmental destabilization. Two things are vitally...important: stemming the tide of climate change and adapting to its far-reaching consequences. This project examines the destabilizing effects of climate

Abrupt climate warming in East Antarctica during the early Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Holger; Heiri, Oliver; Wagner, Bernd; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

2007-08-01

We report a centennial-scale warming event between 8600 and 8400 cal BP from Amery Oasis, East Antarctica, that is documented by the geochemical record in a lacustrine sediment sequence. The organic carbon content, the C/S ratio, and the sedimentation rate in this core have distinctly elevated values around 8500 y ago reflecting relatively warm and ice-free conditions that led to well-ventilated conditions in the lake and considerable sedimentation of both autochthonous and allochthonous organic matter on the lake bottom. This abrupt warming event occurred concurrently with reported warm climatic conditions in the Southern Ocean while the climate in central East Antarctic remained cold. The comparison of the spatial and temporal variability of warm climatic periods documented in various terrestrial, marine, and glacial archives from East Antarctica elucidates the uniqueness of the centennial-scale warming event in the Amery Oasis. We also discuss a possible correlation of the Amery warming event with the abrupt climatic deterioration around 8200 cal BP on the Northern Hemisphere.

Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.

2014-12-01

We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming. ReferencesLovejoy, S. (2014a), Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming, Climate Dynamics, 42, 2339-2351 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2128-2. Lovejoy, S. (2014b), Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4704-4710 doi: doi: 10.1002/2014GL060478.

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-03-01

Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery.

PubMed

Le Bris, Arnault; Mills, Katherine E; Wahle, Richard A; Chen, Yong; Alexander, Michael A; Allyn, Andrew J; Schuetz, Justin G; Scott, James D; Pershing, Andrew J

2018-02-20

Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.

Isolating the Effects of the Warming Trend from the General Climate Change in Water Resources: California Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Yin, H.; Chung, F.

2008-12-01

While the population growth, the future land use change, and the desire for better environmental preservation and protection are adding up pressure on water resources management in California, California is facing an extra challenge of addressing potential climate change impacts on water supple and demand in California. The concerns on water facilities planning and flood control caused by climate change include modified precipitation patterns, changes in snow levels and runoff patterns due to increased air temperatures. Although long-term climate projections are largely uncertain, there appears to be a strong consistency in predicting the warming trend of future surface temperature, and the resulting shift in the seasonal patterns of runoff. However, projected changes in precipitation (wetting or drying), which control annual runoff, are far less certain. This paper attempts to separate the effects of warming trend from the effects of precipitation trend on water planning especially in California where reservoir operations are more sensitive to seasonal patterns of runoff than to the total annual runoff. The water resources systems planning model, CALSIM2, is used to evaluate climate change impact on water resource management in California. Rather than directly ingesting estimated streamflows from climate model projections into CALSIM2, a three step perturbation ratio method is proposed to introduce climate change impact into the planning model. Firstly, monthly perturbation ratio of projected monthly inflow to simulated historical monthly inflow is applied to observed historical monthly inflow to generate climate change inflows to major dams and reservoirs. To isolate the effects of warming trend on water resources, a further annual inflow adjustment is applied to the inflows generated in step one to preserve the volume of the observed annual inflow. To re-introduce the effects of precipitation trend on water resources, an additional inflow trend adjustment is applied to the adjusted climate change inflow. Therefore, three CALSIM2 experiments will be implemented: (1) base run with the observed historic inflow (1921 to 2003); (2) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment; (3) sensitivity run with the adjusted climate change inflow through annual inflow adjustment and inflow trend adjustment. To account for the variability of various climate models in projecting future climates, the uncertainty in future emission scenarios, and the difference in different projection periods, estimated inflows from 6 climate models for 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) and two projection periods (2030-2059 and 2070-2099) are included in the CALSIM model experiments.

Negative effects of climate change on upland grassland productivity and carbon fluxes are not attenuated by nitrogen status.

PubMed

Eze, Samuel; Palmer, Sheila M; Chapman, Pippa J

2018-05-09

Effects of climate change on managed grassland carbon (C) fluxes and biomass production are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the individual and interactive effects of experimental warming (+3 °C above ambient summer daily range of 9-12 °C), supplemental precipitation (333 mm +15%) and drought (333 mm -23%) on plant biomass, microbial biomass C (MBC), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and dissolved organic C (DOC) flux in soil cores from two upland grasslands of different soil nitrogen (N) status (0.54% and 0.37%) in the UK. After one month of acclimation to ambient summer temperature and precipitation, five replicate cores of each treatment were subjected to three months of experimental warming, drought and supplemental precipitation, based on the projected regional summer climate by the end of the 21st Century, in a fully factorial design. NEE and DOC flux were measured throughout the experimental duration, alongside other environmental variables including soil temperature and moisture. Plant biomass and MBC were determined at the end of the experiment. Results showed that warming plus drought resulted in a significant decline in belowground plant biomass (-29 to -37%), aboveground plant biomass (-35 to -77%) and NEE (-13 to -29%), regardless of the N status of the soil. Supplemental precipitation could not reverse the negative effects of warming on the net ecosystem C uptake and plant biomass production. This was attributed to physiological stress imposed by warming which suggests that future summer climate will reduce the C sink capacity of the grasslands. Due to the low moisture retention observed in this study, and to verify our findings, it is recommended that future experiments aimed at measuring soil C dynamics under climate change should be carried out under field conditions. Longer term experiments are recommended to account for seasonal and annual variability, and adaptive changes in biota. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

PubMed

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

2010-03-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning.

Local adaptation to temperature conserves top-down control in a grassland food web.

PubMed

Barton, Brandon T

2011-10-22

A fundamental limitation in many climate change experiments is that tests represent relatively short-term 'shock' experiments and so do not incorporate the phenotypic plasticity or evolutionary change that may occur during the gradual process of climate change. However, capturing this aspect of climate change effects in an experimental design is a difficult challenge that few studies have accomplished. I examined the effect of temperature and predator climate history in food webs composed of herbaceous plants, generalist grasshopper herbivores and spider predators across a natural 4.8°C temperature gradient spanning 500 km in northeastern USA. In these grasslands, the effects of rising temperatures on the plant community are indirect and arise via altered predator-herbivore interactions. Experimental warming had no direct effect on grasshoppers, but reduced predation risk effects by causing spiders from all study sites to seek thermal refuge lower in the plant canopy. However, spider thermal tolerance corresponded to spider origin such that spiders from warmer study sites tolerated higher temperatures than spiders from cooler study sites. As a consequence, the magnitude of the indirect effect of spiders on plants did not differ along the temperature gradient, although a reciprocal transplant experiment revealed significantly different effects of spider origin on the magnitude of top-down control. These results suggest that variation in predator response to warming may maintain species interactions and associated food web processes when faced with long term, chronic climate warming.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Combined effects of warming and acidification on accumulation and elimination dynamics of paralytic shellfish toxins in mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis.

PubMed

Braga, Ana C; Camacho, Carolina; Marques, António; Gago-Martínez, Ana; Pacheco, Mário; Costa, Pedro R

2018-07-01

Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been increasing in frequency and intensity most likely due to changes on global conditions, which constitute a significant threat to wild shellfish and its commercial farming. This study evaluated the impact of increasing seawater temperature and acidification on the accumulation/elimination dynamics of HAB-toxins in shellfish. Mytilus galloprovincialis were acclimated to four environmental conditions simulating different climate change scenarios: i) current conditions, ii) warming, iii) acidification and iv) interaction of warming with acidification. Once acclimated, mussels were exposed to the paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) producing dinoflagellate Gymnodinium catenatum for 5 days and to non-toxic diet during the subsequent 10 days. High toxicity levels (1493 µg STX eq. kg -1 ) exceeding the safety limits were determined under current conditions at the end of the uptake period. Significantly lower PSP toxicity levels were registered for warming- and acidification-acclimated mussels (661 and 761 µg STX eq. kg -1 ). The combined effect of both warming and acidification resulted in PSP toxicity values slightly higher (856 μg STX eq. kg -1 ). A rapid decrease of toxicity was observed in mussels at the current conditions after shifting to a non-toxic diet, which was not noticed under the predicted climate change scenarios. Variability of each PST analogue, measured throughout the experiment, highlighted different mechanisms are associated with changes of each environmental factor, although both resulting in lower toxicity. Warming-acclimated mussels showed lower accumulation/elimination rates, while acidification-acclimated mussels showed higher capability to accumulate toxins, but also a higher elimination rate preventing high toxicity levels. As different mechanisms are triggered by warming and acidification, their combined effect not leads to a synergism of their individual effects. The present work is the first assessing the combined effect of climate change drivers on accumulation/elimination of PSTs, in mussels, indicating that warming and acidification may lead to lower toxicity values but longer toxic episodes. PSTs are responsible for the food poisoning syndrome, paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in humans. This study can be considered as the first step to build models for predicting shellfish toxicity under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Five years of phenology observations from a mixed-grass prairie exposed to warming and elevated CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing since the Industrial Era and contribute to concurrent increases in global temperatures. Many observational studies suggest climate warming alone contributes to a longer growing season. To determine the relative effect of warming on plant p...

[Treatment of patients with neuromuscular disease in a warm climate].

PubMed

Dahl, Arve; Skjeldal, Ola H; Simensen, Andreas; Dalen, Håkon E; Bråthen, Tone; Ahlvin, Petra; Svendsby, Ellen Kathrine; Sveinall, Anne; Fredriksen, Per Morten

2004-07-01

Several patient groups request treatment in a warm climate, in spite of the fact that the effects of such treatment are undocumented. 47 children and 40 adults with neuromuscular diseases were recruited, stratified according to sex, use or non-use of electric wheelchair, primary myopathy or hereditary neuropathy, and randomised into two adult and two children groups. The patients were treated in a rehabilitation centre, either on Lanzarote or in Norway. All patients were monitored with physical tests and questionnaires at the start of the study, at the end of the treatment period, after three months (all groups) and after six months (adults only). No significant differences in effect between the groups were found. In the warm climate, the adult patient group showed a statistically significant improvement regarding pain, quality of life, depression, and results of physical tests at the end of treatment. After three months, the improvement in physical tests was still present. Among adult patients treated in Norway, improvement in physical tests was statistically significant after three months, but not at the end of the treatment period. This study did not show a statistically significant difference between patients with various neuromuscular diseases treated in a warm climate compared to similar patients treated in Norway.

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing

PubMed Central

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R.; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

2014-01-01

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around ‘climate response functions’ (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to ‘step’ changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate. PMID:24891392

The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing.

PubMed

Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C; Scott, Jeffery R; Kostov, Yavor; Hausmann, Ute; Ferreira, David; Shepherd, Theodore G; Bitz, Cecilia M

2014-07-13

In recent decades, the Arctic has been warming and sea ice disappearing. By contrast, the Southern Ocean around Antarctica has been (mainly) cooling and sea-ice extent growing. We argue here that interhemispheric asymmetries in the mean ocean circulation, with sinking in the northern North Atlantic and upwelling around Antarctica, strongly influence the sea-surface temperature (SST) response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing, accelerating warming in the Arctic while delaying it in the Antarctic. Furthermore, while the amplitude of GHG forcing has been similar at the poles, significant ozone depletion only occurs over Antarctica. We suggest that the initial response of SST around Antarctica to ozone depletion is one of cooling and only later adds to the GHG-induced warming trend as upwelling of sub-surface warm water associated with stronger surface westerlies impacts surface properties. We organize our discussion around 'climate response functions' (CRFs), i.e. the response of the climate to 'step' changes in anthropogenic forcing in which GHG and/or ozone-hole forcing is abruptly turned on and the transient response of the climate revealed and studied. Convolutions of known or postulated GHG and ozone-hole forcing functions with their respective CRFs then yield the transient forced SST response (implied by linear response theory), providing a context for discussion of the differing warming/cooling trends in the Arctic and Antarctic. We speculate that the period through which we are now passing may be one in which the delayed warming of SST associated with GHG forcing around Antarctica is largely cancelled by the cooling effects associated with the ozone hole. By mid-century, however, ozone-hole effects may instead be adding to GHG warming around Antarctica but with diminished amplitude as the ozone hole heals. The Arctic, meanwhile, responding to GHG forcing but in a manner amplified by ocean heat transport, may continue to warm at an accelerating rate.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed

Nabi, Sa; Qader, Ss

2009-03-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world.This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards.

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

Dynamical Downscaling of Climate Change over the Hawaiian Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Hamilton, K. P.; Lauer, A.

2015-12-01

The pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method was applied to the Hawaii Regional Climate Model (HRCM) to dynamically downscale the projected climate in the late 21st century over the Hawaiian Islands. The initial and boundary conditions were adopted from MERRA reanalysis and NOAA SST data for the present-day simulations. The global warming increments constructed from the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble mean were added to the reanalysis and SST data to perform the future climate simulations. We found that the Hawaiian Islands are vulnerable to global warming effects and the changes are diverse due to the varied topography. The windward side will have more clouds and receive more rainfall. The increase of the moisture in the boundary layer makes the major contribution. On the contrary, the leeward side will have less clouds and rainfall. The clouds and rain can slightly slow down the warming trend over the windward side. The temperature increases almost linearly with the terrain height. Cloud base and top heights will slightly decline in response to the slightly lower trade wind inversion base height, while the trade wind occurrence frequency will increase by about 8% in the future. More extreme rainfall events will occur in the warming climate over the Hawaiian Islands. And the snow cover on the top of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa will nearly disappear in the future winter.

Striking Seasonality in the Secular Warming of the Northern Continents: Structure and Mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

2017-12-01

The linear trend in twentieth-century surface air temperature (SAT)—a key secular warming signal— exhibits striking seasonal variations over Northern Hemisphere continents; SAT trends are pronounced in winter and spring but notably weaker in summer and fall. The SAT trends in historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's Fifth Assessment show varied (and often unrealistic) strength and structure, and markedly weaker seasonal variation. The large intra-ensemble spread of winter SAT trends in some historical simulations was surprising, especially in the context of century-long linear trends, with implications for the detection of the secular warming signal. The striking seasonality of observed secular warming over northern continents warrants an explanation and the representation of related processes in climate models. Here, the seasonality of SAT trends over North America is shown to result from land surface-hydroclimate interactions and, to an extent, also from the secular change in low-level atmospheric circulation and related thermal advection. It is argued that the winter dormancy and summer vigor of the hydrologic cycle over middle- to high-latitude continents permit different responses to the additional incident radiative energy from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The seasonal cycle of climate, despite its monotony, provides an expanded phase space for the exposition of the dynamical and thermodynamical processes generating secular warming, and an exceptional cost-effective opportunity for benchmarking climate projection models.

Messages promoting genetic modification of crops in the context of climate change: Evidence for psychological reactance.

PubMed

Lu, Hang; McComas, Katherine A; Besley, John C

2017-01-01

Genetic modification (GM) of crops and climate change are arguably two of today's most challenging science communication issues. Increasingly, these two issues are connected in messages proposing GM as a viable option for ensuring global food security threatened by climate change. This study examines the effects of messages promoting the benefits of GM in the context of climate change. Further, it examines whether explicit reference to "climate change," or "global warming" in a GM message results in different effects than each other, or an implicit climate reference. An online sample of U.S. participants (N = 1050) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: "climate change" cue, "global warming" cue, implicit cue, or control (no message). Generally speaking, framing GM crops as a way to help ensure global food security proved to be an effective messaging strategy in increasing positive attitudes toward GM. In addition, the implicit cue condition led to liberals having more positive attitudes and behavioral intentions toward GM than the "climate change" cue condition, an effect mediated by message evaluations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

PubMed

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2016-05-25

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

New permafrost is forming around shrinking Arctic lakes, but will it last?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Briggs, Martin A.; Walvoord, Michelle Ann; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.; Voss, Clifford I.; Day-Lewis, Frederick D.; Lane, John W.

2014-01-01

Widespread lake shrinkage in cold regions has been linked to climate warming and permafrost thaw. Permafrost aggradation, however, has been observed within the margins of recently receded lakes, in seeming contradiction of climate warming. Here permafrost aggradation dynamics are examined at Twelvemile Lake, a retreating lake in interior Alaska. Observations reveal patches of recently formed permafrost within the dried lake margin, colocated with discrete bands of willow shrub. We test ecological succession, which alters shading, infiltration, and heat transport, as the driver of aggradation using numerical simulation of variably saturated groundwater flow and heat transport with phase change (i.e., freeze-thaw). Simulations support permafrost development under current climatic conditions, but only when net effects of vegetation on soil conditions are incorporated, thus pointing to the role of ecological succession. Furthermore, model results indicate that permafrost aggradation is transitory with further climate warming, as new permafrost thaws within seven decades.

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Philip J.; Nesmith, Jonathan C. B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E.; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorraine

2013-01-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire).

Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth

PubMed Central

Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

2016-01-01

The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response. PMID:27221757

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

PubMed

Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

2017-09-01

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-03-01

Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature.

Uncertainty in Arctic climate projections traced to variability of downwelling longwave radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krikken, Folmer; Bintanja, Richard; Hazeleger, WIlco; van Heerwaarden, Chiel

2017-04-01

The Arctic region has warmed rapidly over the last decades, and this warming is projected to increase. The uncertainty in these projections, i.e. intermodel spread, is however very large and a clear understanding of the sources behind the spread is so far still lacking. Here we use 31 state-of-the-art global climate models to show that variability of May downwelling radiation (DLR) in the models' control climate, primarily located at the land surrounding the Arctic ocean, explains 2/3 of the intermodel spread in projected Arctic warming under the RPC85 scenario. This variability is related to the combined radiative effect of the cloud radiative forcing (CRF) and the albedo response due to snowfall, which varies strongly between the models in these regions. This mechanism dampens or enhances yearly variability of DLR in the control climate but also dampens or enhances the climate response of DLR, sea ice cover and near surface temperature.

Simple additive simulation overestimates real influence: altered nitrogen and rainfall modulate the effect of warming on soil carbon fluxes.

PubMed

Ni, Xiangyin; Yang, Wanqin; Qi, Zemin; Liao, Shu; Xu, Zhenfeng; Tan, Bo; Wang, Bin; Wu, Qinggui; Fu, Changkun; You, Chengming; Wu, Fuzhong

2017-08-01

Experiments and models have led to a consensus that there is positive feedback between carbon (C) fluxes and climate warming. However, the effect of warming may be altered by regional and global changes in nitrogen (N) and rainfall levels, but the current understanding is limited. Through synthesizing global data on soil C pool, input and loss from experiments simulating N deposition, drought and increased precipitation, we quantified the responses of soil C fluxes and equilibrium to the three single factors and their interactions with warming. We found that warming slightly increased the soil C input and loss by 5% and 9%, respectively, but had no significant effect on the soil C pool. Nitrogen deposition alone increased the soil C input (+20%), but the interaction of warming and N deposition greatly increased the soil C input by 49%. Drought alone decreased the soil C input by 17%, while the interaction of warming and drought decreased the soil C input to a greater extent (-22%). Increased precipitation stimulated the soil C input by 15%, but the interaction of warming and increased precipitation had no significant effect on the soil C input. However, the soil C loss was not significantly affected by any of the interactions, although it was constrained by drought (-18%). These results implied that the positive C fluxes-climate warming feedback was modulated by the changing N and rainfall regimes. Further, we found that the additive effects of [warming × N deposition] and [warming × drought] on the soil C input and of [warming × increased precipitation] on the soil C loss were greater than their interactions, suggesting that simple additive simulation using single-factor manipulations may overestimate the effects on soil C fluxes in the real world. Therefore, we propose that more multifactorial experiments should be considered in studying Earth systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

PubMed

Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2008-12-28

Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

The potential impact of global warming on the efficacy of field margins sown for the conservation of bumble-bees.

PubMed

Memmott, Jane; Carvell, Claire; Pywell, Richard F; Craze, Paul G

2010-07-12

Climate change is expected to drive species extinct by reducing their survival, reproduction and habitat. Less well appreciated is the possibility that climate change could cause extinction by changing the ecological interactions between species. If ecologists, land managers and policy makers are to manage farmland biodiversity sustainably under global climate change, they need to understand the ways in which species interact with each other as this will affect the way they respond to climate change. Here, we consider the ability of nectar flower mixtures used in field margins to provide sufficient forage for bumble-bees under future climate change. We simulated the effect of global warming on the network of plant-pollinator interactions in two types of field margin: a four-species pollen and nectar mix and a six-species wildflower mix. While periods without flowering resources and periods with no food were rare, curtailment of the field season was very common for the bumble-bees in both mixtures. The effect of this, however, could be ameliorated by adding extra species at the start and end of the flowering season. The plant species that could be used to future-proof margins against global warming are discussed.

Effect of simulated climate warming on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis in copper contaminated soil.

PubMed

Guan, Ming; Jin, Zexin; Li, Junmin; Pan, Xiaocui; Wang, Suizi; Li, Yuelin

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of temperature and Cu on the morphological and physiological traits of Elsholtzia haichowensis grown in soils amended with four Cu concentrations (0, 50, 500, and 1000 mg kg(-1)) under ambient temperature and slight warming. At the same Cu concentration, the height, shoot dry weight, total plant dry weight, and root morphological parameters such as length, surface area and tip number of E. haichowensis increased due to the slight warming. The net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, light use efficiency were also higher under the slight warming than under ambient temperature. The increased Cu concentrations, total Cu uptake, bioaccumulation factors and tolerance indexes of shoots and roots were also observed at the slight warming. The shoot dry weight, root dry weight, total plant dry weight and the bioaccumulation factors of shoots and roots at 50 mg Cu kg(-1) were significantly higher than those at 500 and 1000 mg Cu kg(-1) under the slight warming. Therefore, the climate warming may improve the ability of E. haichowensis to phytoremediate Cu-contaminated soil, and the ability improvement greatly depended on the Cu concentrations in soils.

Sensitivity of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate to cloud properties.

PubMed

Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Shields, Christine A

2013-10-28

The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in the Earth's history (approx. 55 Ma). The cause for this warming event has been linked to increases in greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide and methane. This rapid warming took place in the presence of the existing Early Eocene warm climate. Given that projected business-as-usual levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reach concentrations of 800-1100 ppmv by 2100, it is of interest to study past climates where atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher than present. This is especially the case given the difficulty of climate models in simulating past warm climates. This study explores the sensitivity of the simulated pre-PETM and PETM periods to change in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and microphysical properties of liquid water clouds. Assuming lower levels of CCN for both of these periods leads to significant warming, especially at high latitudes. The study indicates that past differences in cloud properties may be an important factor in accurately simulating past warm climates. Importantly, additional shortwave warming from such a mechanism would imply lower required atmospheric CO2 concentrations for simulated surface temperatures to be in reasonable agreement with proxy data for the Eocene.

Nonlinear regional warming with increasing CO2 concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A.; Andrews, Timothy; Wiltshire, Andrew; Chadwick, Robin; Ridley, Jeff K.; Menary, Matthew B.; Bouttes, Nathaelle; Dufresne, Jean Louis; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Schaller, Nathalie; Shiogama, Hideo

2015-02-01

When considering adaptation measures and global climate mitigation goals, stakeholders need regional-scale climate projections, including the range of plausible warming rates. To assist these stakeholders, it is important to understand whether some locations may see disproportionately high or low warming from additional forcing above targets such as 2 K (ref. ). There is a need to narrow uncertainty in this nonlinear warming, which requires understanding how climate changes as forcings increase from medium to high levels. However, quantifying and understanding regional nonlinear processes is challenging. Here we show that regional-scale warming can be strongly superlinear to successive CO2 doublings, using five different climate models. Ensemble-mean warming is superlinear over most land locations. Further, the inter-model spread tends to be amplified at higher forcing levels, as nonlinearities grow--especially when considering changes per kelvin of global warming. Regional nonlinearities in surface warming arise from nonlinearities in global-mean radiative balance, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, surface snow/ice cover and evapotranspiration. For robust adaptation and mitigation advice, therefore, potentially avoidable climate change (the difference between business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios) and unavoidable climate change (change under strong mitigation scenarios) may need different analysis methods.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. While there has been long-standing concern over impacts of 5 physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is also increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, USA, we examined the effects of 10 years of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities, and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical 10 disturbance (>10 years of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increased cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects 15 on lichens. While the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed by the climate treatments used in our study.

New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

PubMed

Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

2017-06-20

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

Global Air Quality and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Treesearch

Sarah C. Elmendorf; Gregory H.R. Henry; Robert D. Hollister; Robert G. Björk; Anne D. Bjorkman; Terry V. Callaghan; [and others] NO-VALUE; William Gould; Joel Mercado

2012-01-01

Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty...

Responses of community-level plant-insect interactions to climate warming in a meadow steppe.

PubMed

Zhu, Hui; Zou, Xuehui; Wang, Deli; Wan, Shiqiang; Wang, Ling; Guo, Jixun

2015-12-21

Climate warming may disrupt trophic interactions, consequently influencing ecosystem functioning. Most studies have concentrated on the temperature-effects on plant-insect interactions at individual and population levels, with a particular emphasis on changes in phenology and distribution. Nevertheless, the available evidence from the community level is limited. A 3-year field manipulative experiment was performed to test potential responses of plant and insect communities, and plant-insect interactions, to elevated temperature in a meadow steppe. Warming increased the biomass of plant community and forbs, and decreased grass biomass, indicating a shift from grass-dominant to grass-forb mixed plant community. Reduced abundance of the insect community under warming, particularly the herbivorous insects, was attributed to lower abundance of Euchorthippus unicolor and a Cicadellidae species resulting from lower food availability and higher defensive herbivory. Lower herbivore abundance caused lower predator species richness because of reduced prey resources and contributed to an overall decrease in insect species richness. Interestingly, warming enhanced the positive relationship between insect and plant species richness, implying that the strength of the plant-insect interactions was altered by warming. Our results suggest that alterations to plant-insect interactions at a community level under climate warming in grasslands may be more important and complex than previously thought.

Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

2013-12-01

Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision makers can arrive at invalid conclusions from a seemingly valid scientific messages. Honest discussion of uncertainties, and recognition of the spatial and time scales associated with decision making, can work to combat this potential confusion.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts.

PubMed

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-29

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface—are fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover. Although there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrust communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, our results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. This is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.

Interactive effects of multiple climate change factors on ammonia oxidizers and denitrifiers in a temperate steppe.

PubMed

Zhang, Cui-Jing; Shen, Ju-Pei; Sun, Yi-Fei; Wang, Jun-Tao; Zhang, Li-Mei; Yang, Zhong-Ling; Han, Hong-Yan; Wan, Shi-Qiang; He, Ji-Zheng

2017-04-01

Global climate change could have profound effects on belowground microbial communities and subsequently affect soil biogeochemical processes. The interactive effects of multiple co-occurring climate change factors on microbially mediated processes are not well understood. A four-factorial field experiment with elevated CO2, watering, nitrogen (N) addition and night warming was conducted in a temperate steppe of northern China. Real-time polymerase chain reaction and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism, combined with clone library techniques, were applied to examine the effects of those climate change factors on N-related microbial abundance and community composition. Only the abundance of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria significantly increased by nitrogen addition and decreased by watering. The interactions of watering × warming on the bacterial amoA community and warming × nitrogen addition on the nosZ community were found. Redundancy analysis indicated that the ammonia-oxidizing archaeal community was affected by total N and total carbon, while the community of bacterial amoA and nosZ were significantly affected by soil pH. According to a structural equation modeling analysis, climate change influenced net primary production indirectly by altering microbial abundance and activities. These results indicated that microbial responses to the combination of chronic global change tend to be smaller than expected from single-factor global change manipulations. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

PubMed

Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

2012-05-15

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen

PubMed Central

Pinder, Robert W.; Davidson, Eric A.; Goodale, Christine L.; Greaver, Tara L.; Herrick, Jeffrey D.; Liu, Lingli

2012-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO2 equivalents (CO2e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at −290 to −510 Tg CO2e on a GTP20 basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP100 basis, combustion contributes just −16 to −95 Tg CO2e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N2O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N2O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO2 emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change. PMID:22547815

Forests and climate change: forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests.

PubMed

Bonan, Gordon B

2008-06-13

The world's forests influence climate through physical, chemical, and biological processes that affect planetary energetics, the hydrologic cycle, and atmospheric composition. These complex and nonlinear forest-atmosphere interactions can dampen or amplify anthropogenic climate change. Tropical, temperate, and boreal reforestation and afforestation attenuate global warming through carbon sequestration. Biogeophysical feedbacks can enhance or diminish this negative climate forcing. Tropical forests mitigate warming through evaporative cooling, but the low albedo of boreal forests is a positive climate forcing. The evaporative effect of temperate forests is unclear. The net climate forcing from these and other processes is not known. Forests are under tremendous pressure from global change. Interdisciplinary science that integrates knowledge of the many interacting climate services of forests with the impacts of global change is necessary to identify and understand as yet unexplored feedbacks in the Earth system and the potential of forests to mitigate climate change.

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

PubMed

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2013-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

Controlled soil warming powered by alternative energy for remote field sites.

PubMed

Johnstone, Jill F; Henkelman, Jonathan; Allen, Kirsten; Helgason, Warren; Bedard-Haughn, Angela

2013-01-01

Experiments using controlled manipulation of climate variables in the field are critical for developing and testing mechanistic models of ecosystem responses to climate change. Despite rapid changes in climate observed in many high latitude and high altitude environments, controlled manipulations in these remote regions have largely been limited to passive experimental methods with variable effects on environmental factors. In this study, we tested a method of controlled soil warming suitable for remote field locations that can be powered using alternative energy sources. The design was tested in high latitude, alpine tundra of southern Yukon Territory, Canada, in 2010 and 2011. Electrical warming probes were inserted vertically in the near-surface soil and powered with photovoltaics attached to a monitoring and control system. The warming manipulation achieved a stable target warming of 1.3 to 2 °C in 1 m(2) plots while minimizing disturbance to soil and vegetation. Active control of power output in the warming plots allowed the treatment to closely match spatial and temporal variations in soil temperature while optimizing system performance during periods of low power supply. Active soil heating with vertical electric probes powered by alternative energy is a viable option for remote sites and presents a low-disturbance option for soil warming experiments. This active heating design provides a valuable tool for examining the impacts of soil warming on ecosystem processes.

Does physiological acclimation to climate warming stabilize the ratio of canopy respiration to photosynthesis?

PubMed

Drake, John E; Tjoelker, Mark G; Aspinwall, Michael J; Reich, Peter B; Barton, Craig V M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Duursma, Remko A

2016-08-01

Given the contrasting short-term temperature dependences of gross primary production (GPP) and autotrophic respiration, the fraction of GPP respired by trees is predicted to increase with warming, providing a positive feedback to climate change. However, physiological acclimation may dampen or eliminate this response. We measured the fluxes of aboveground respiration (Ra ), GPP and their ratio (Ra /GPP) in large, field-grown Eucalyptus tereticornis trees exposed to ambient or warmed air temperatures (+3°C). We report continuous measurements of whole-canopy CO2 exchange, direct temperature response curves of leaf and canopy respiration, leaf and branch wood respiration, and diurnal photosynthetic measurements. Warming reduced photosynthesis, whereas physiological acclimation prevented a coincident increase in Ra . Ambient and warmed trees had a common nonlinear relationship between the fraction of GPP that was respired above ground (Ra /GPP) and the mean daily temperature. Thus, warming significantly increased Ra /GPP by moving plants to higher positions on the shared Ra /GPP vs daily temperature relationship, but this effect was modest and only notable during hot conditions. Despite the physiological acclimation of autotrophic respiration to warming, increases in temperature and the frequency of heat waves may modestly increase tree Ra /GPP, contributing to a positive feedback between climate warming and atmospheric CO2 accumulation. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Potential effects on health of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haines, A.; Parry, M.

1993-12-01

Prediction of the impacts of global climate change on health is complicated by a number of factors. These include: the difficulty in predicting regional changes in climate, the capacity for adaptation to climate change, the interactions between the effects of global climate change and a number of other key determinants of health, including population growth and poverty, and the availability of adequate preventive and curative facilities for diseases that may be effected by climate change. Nevertheless, it is of importance to consider the potential health impacts of global climate change for a number of reasons. It is also important tomore » monitor diseases which could be effected by climate change in order to detect changes in incidence as early as possible and study possible interactions with other factors. It seems likely that the possible impacts on health of climate change will be a major determinant of the degree to which policies aimed at reducing global warming are followed, as perceptions of the effect of climate change to human health and well-being are particularly likely to influence public opinion. The potential health impacts of climate change can be divided into direct (primary) and indirect (secondary and tertiary) effects. Primary effects are those related to the effect of temperature on human well-being and disease. Secondary effects include the impacts on health of changes in food production, availability of water and of sea level rise. A tertiary level of impacts can also be hypothesized.« less

Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

2018-01-01

The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

Plant inputs, microbial carbon use in soil and decomposition under warming: effects of warming are depth dependent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendall, E.; Carrillo, Y.; Dijkstra, F. A.

2017-12-01

Future climate will include warmer conditions but impacts on soil C cycling remain uncertain and so are the potential warming-driven feedbacks. Net impacts will depend on the balance of effects on microbial activity and plant inputs. Soil depth is likely to be a critical factor driving this balance as it integrates gradients in belowground biomass, microbial activity and environmental variables. Most empirical studies focus on one soil layer and soil C forecasting relies on broad assumptions about effects of depth. Our limited understanding of the use of available C by soil microbes under climate change across depths is a critical source of uncertainty. Long-term labelling of plant biomass with C isotopic tracers in intact systems allows us to follow the dynamics of different soil C pools including the net accumulation of newly fixed C and the net loss of native C. These can be combined with concurrent observations of microbial use of C pools to explore the impacts of depth on the relationships between plant inputs and microbial C use. We evaluated belowground biomass, in-situ root decomposition and incorporation of plant-derived C into soil C and microbial C at 0-5 cm and 5-15 cmover 7 years at the Prairie Heating And CO2 Enrichment experiment. PHACE was a factorial manipulation of CO2 and warming in a native mixed grass prairie in Wyoming, USA. We used the continuous fumigation with labelled CO2 in the elevated CO2 treatments to study the C dynamics under unwarmed and warmed conditions. Shallower soils had three times the density of biomass as deeper soils. Warming increased biomass in both depths but this effect was weaker in deeper soils. Root litter mass loss in deeper soil was one third that of the shallow and was not affected by warming. Consistent with biomass distribution, incorporation of plant-derived C into soil and microbial C was lower in deeper soils and higher with warming. However, in contrast to the effect of warming on biomass, the effect of warming on incorporation of plant derived C into microbes was stronger in deeper soils. Thus, warming made microbes incorporate relatively more plant inputs in deeper soils, where biomass was less stimulated. This dependency on depth of impacts of warming on microbial C cycling should have important implications for forecasting potential feedbacks of soil C to climate change.

Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival

PubMed Central

Saenz, Daniel; Fucik, Erin M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

2013-01-01

Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms. PMID:24363907

Synergistic effects of the invasive Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera) and climate change on aquatic amphibian survival.

PubMed

Saenz, Daniel; Fucik, Erin M; Kwiatkowski, Matthew A

2013-11-01

Changes in climate and the introduction of invasive species are two major stressors to amphibians, although little is known about the interaction between these two factors with regard to impacts on amphibians. We focused our study on an invasive tree species, the Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera), that annually sheds its leaves and produces leaf litter that is known to negatively impact aquatic amphibian survival. The purpose of our research was to determine whether the timing of leaf fall from Chinese tallow and the timing of amphibian breeding (determined by weather) influence survival of amphibian larvae. We simulated a range of winter weather scenarios, ranging from cold to warm, by altering the relative timing of when leaf litter and amphibian larvae were introduced into aquatic mesocosms. Our results indicate that amphibian larvae survival was greatly affected by the length of time Chinese tallow leaf litter decomposes in water prior to the introduction of the larvae. Larvae in treatments simulating warm winters (early amphibian breeding) were introduced to the mesocosms early in the aquatic decomposition process of the leaf litter and had significantly lower survival compared with cold winters (late amphibian breeding), likely due to significantly lower dissolved oxygen levels. Shifts to earlier breeding phenology, linked to warming climate, have already been observed in many amphibian taxa, and with most climate models predicting a significant warming trend over the next century, the trend toward earlier breeding should continue if not increase. Our results strongly suggest that a warming climate can interact with the effects of invasive plant species, in ways we have not previously considered, to reduce the survival of an already declining group of organisms.

Impact of a global warming on biospheric sources of methane and its climatic consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hameed, S.; Cess, R. D.

1980-01-01

Most of atmospheric methane originates by bacterial processes in anaerobic environments within the soil which are found to become more productive with increases in ambient temperature. A warming of climate, due to increasing levels of industrial gases resulting from fossil fuel burning, is thus likely to increase methane abundance within the atmosphere. This may lead to further heating of the atmosphere, since both methane and ozone (which is generated in the troposphere from reactions of methane) have greenhouse effects. This feedback mechanism has been explored with the use of a coupled climate-chemical model of the troposphere, by the calculation of the impact of the predicted global warming due to increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other industrial gases on the biospheric sources of methane.

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents.

PubMed

Abram, Nerilie J; McGregor, Helen V; Tierney, Jessica E; Evans, Michael N; McKay, Nicholas P; Kaufman, Darrell S

2016-08-25

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is important for determining climate sensitivity and the processes that control regional warming. Here we use post-ad 1500 palaeoclimate records to show that sustained industrial-era warming of the tropical oceans first developed during the mid-nineteenth century and was nearly synchronous with Northern Hemisphere continental warming. The early onset of sustained, significant warming in palaeoclimate records and model simulations suggests that greenhouse forcing of industrial-era warming commenced as early as the mid-nineteenth century and included an enhanced equatorial ocean response mechanism. The development of Southern Hemisphere warming is delayed in reconstructions, but this apparent delay is not reproduced in climate simulations. Our findings imply that instrumental records are too short to comprehensively assess anthropogenic climate change and that, in some regions, about 180 years of industrial-era warming has already caused surface temperatures to emerge above pre-industrial values, even when taking natural variability into account.

Calentamiento global : ¿Efecto invernadero o actividad solar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauas, P. J. D.

Here we discuss some evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the terrestrial climate. We pay particular attention to claims, made by different authors, that global warming is due to an increase in solar activity and not to anthropogenic causes like, mainly, the greenhouse effect. We conclude that, although there are evidences suggesting that solar activity affects the climate at Earth, it seems doubtful that this is the main cause of global warming.

The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, René; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

2018-06-01

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models’ agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5 °C GWL and strengthening at 2 °C. A consistent difference between 2 °C and 1.5 °C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. Our study indicates that a 0.5 °C further warming (from 1.5 °C–2 °C) can indeed produce a robust change in some aspects of the African climate and its extremes.

Control of fossil-fuel particulate black carbon and organic matter, possibly the most effective method of slowing global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Mark Z.

2002-10-01

Under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, no control of black carbon (BC) was considered. Here, it is found, through simulations in which 12 identifiable effects of aerosol particles on climate are treated, that any emission reduction of fossil-fuel (f.f.) particulate BC plus associated organic matter (OM) may slow global warming more than may any emission reduction of CO2 or CH4 for a specific period. When all f.f. BC + OM and anthropogenic CO2 and CH4 emissions are eliminated together, the period is 25-100 years. It is also estimated that historical net global warming can be attributed roughly to greenhouse gas plus f.f. BC + OM warming minus substantial cooling by other particles. Eliminating all f.f. BC + OM could eliminate 20-45% of net warming (8-18% of total warming before cooling is subtracted out) within 3-5 years if no other change occurred. Reducing CO2 emissions by a third would have the same effect, but after 50-200 years. Finally, diesel cars emitting continuously under the most recent U.S. and E.U. particulate standards (0.08 g/mi; 0.05 g/km) may warm climate per distance driven over the next 100+ years more than equivalent gasoline cars. Thus, fuel and carbon tax laws that favor diesel appear to promote global warming. Toughening vehicle particulate emission standards by a factor of 8 (0.01 g/mi; 0.006 g/km) does not change this conclusion, although it shortens the period over which diesel cars warm to 13-54 years. Although control of BC + OM can slow warming, control of greenhouse gases is necessary to stop warming. Reducing BC + OM will not only slow global warming but also improve human health.

Soil Warming: Consequences for Foliar Litter Decay in a Spruce-Fir Forest in Maine, USA

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad; Ivan J. Fernandez

1998-01-01

Increased rates of litter decay due to projected global warming could substantially alter the balance between C assimilation and release in forest soils, with consequent feedbacks to climate change. This study was conducted to investigate the effects of soil warming on the decomposition of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) and red maple (...

Independent effects of warming and nitrogen addition on plant phenology in the Inner Mongolian steppe

PubMed Central

Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-01-01

Background and Aims Phenology is one of most sensitive traits of plants in response to regional climate warming. Better understanding of the interactive effects between warming and other environmental change factors, such as increasing atmosphere nitrogen (N) deposition, is critical for projection of future plant phenology. Methods A 4-year field experiment manipulating temperature and N has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China. Phenology, including flowering and fruiting date as well as reproductive duration, of eight plant species was monitored and calculated from 2006 to 2009. Key Results Across all the species and years, warming significantly advanced flowering and fruiting time by 0·64 and 0·72 d per season, respectively, which were mainly driven by the earliest species (Potentilla acaulis). Although N addition showed no impact on phenological times across the eight species, it significantly delayed flowering time of Heteropappus altaicus and fruiting time of Agropyron cristatum. The responses of flowering and fruiting times to warming or N addition are coupled, leading to no response of reproductive duration to warming or N addition for most species. Warming shortened reproductive duration of Potentilla bifurca but extended that of Allium bidentatum, whereas N addition shortened that of A. bidentatum. No interactive effect between warming and N addition was found on any phenological event. Such additive effects could be ascribed to the species-specific responses of plant phenology to warming and N addition. Conclusions The results suggest that the warming response of plant phenology is larger in earlier than later flowering species in temperate grassland systems. The effects of warming and N addition on plant phenology are independent of each other. These findings can help to better understand and predict the response of plant phenology to climate warming concurrent with other global change driving factors. PMID:23585496

Will growing forests make the global warming problem better or worse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, K.; Gibbard, S.; Bala, G.; Wickett, M. E.; Phillips, T. J.

2005-12-01

Carbon storage in forests has been promoted as a means to slow global warming. However, forests affect climate not only through the carbon cycle; forests also affect both the absorption of solar radiation and evapotranspiration. Previously, it has been shown that boreal forests have the potential to warm the planet, offsetting the benefits of carbon storage in boreal forests (Betts, Nature 408, 187-190, 2000). Here, we show that direct climate effects of forest growth in mid-latitudes also have the potential to offset benefits of carbon storage. This suggests that mid-latitude afforestation projects must be evaluated very carefully, taking direct climate effects into account. In contrast, low-latitude tropical forests appear to cool the planet both by storing carbon and by increasing evapotranspiration; thus, slowing or reversing tropical deforestation is a win/win strategy from both carbon storage and direct climate perspectives. Evaluation of costs and benefits of afforestation depends on the time scales under consideration. On the shortest time scale, each unit of CO2 taken up by a plant is removed from the atmosphere. However, over centuries most of this CO2 taken up from the atmosphere by plants is replaced by outgassing from the ocean. On the longest time scales, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is controlled by the carbonate-silicate cycle, so the amount of carbon stored in a forest is not relevant to long-term climate change. While atmospheric CO2 impacts of afforestation diminish over time, the direct effects on climate (and silicate weathering) persist, so these effects become more important as the time scale of concern lengthens. In some cases, afforestation is predicted to lead to cooling on the time scale of decades followed by warming on the time scale of centuries. Our study involves simulations using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean to perform idealized (and extreme) land-cover change simulations. We explore the time-dependent carbon-cycle/climate implications of these results using a schematic model of the long-term carbon cycle and climate.

Holocene climate in the western Great Lakes national parks and lakeshores: Implications for future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, Margaret; Douglas, Christine; Cole, K.L.; Winkler, Marge; Flaknes, Robyn

2000-01-01

We reconstruct Holocene climate history (last 10,000 years) for each of the U.S. National Park Service units in the western Great Lakes region in order to evaluate their sensitivity to global warming. Annual precipitation, annual temperature, and July and January temperatures were reconstructed by comparing fossil pollen in lake sediment with pollen in surface samples, assuming that ancient climates were similar to modern climate near analogous surface samples. In the early Holocene, most of the parks experienced colder winters, warmer summers, and lower precipitation than today. An exception is Voyageurs National Park in northern Minnesota where, by 8000 years ago, January temperatures were higher than today. The combination of high mean annual temperature and lower precipitation at Voyageurs resulted in a dry period between 8000 and 5000 years ago, similar to the Prairie Period in regions to the south and west. A mid-Holocene warm-dry period also occurred at other northern and central parks but was much less strongly developed. In southern parks there was no clear evidence of a mid-Holocene warm-dry period. These differences suggest that global model predictions of a warm, dry climate in the northern Great Plains under doubled atmospheric CO2 may be more applicable to Voyageurs than to the other parks. The contrast in reconstructed temperatures at Voyageurs and Isle Royale indicates that the ameliorating effect of the Great Lakes on temperatures has been in effect throughout the Holocene and presumably will continue in the future, thus reducing the potential for species loss caused by future temperature extremes. Increased numbers of mesic trees at all of the parks in the late Holocene reflect increasing annual precipitation. This trend toward more mesic conditions began 6000 years ago in the south and 4000 years ago in the north and increased sharply in recent millennia at parks located today in lake-effect snow belts. This suggests that lake-effect snowfall is sensitive to continental-scale changes in climate and could be affected by future climate change. Plant and animal species sensitive to changes in the moisture regime could thus be endangered within the Great Lakes parks.

The neglected nonlocal effects of deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, Johannes; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia

2017-04-01

Deforestation changes surface temperature locally via biogeophysical effects by changing the water, energy and momentum balance. Adding to these locally induced changes (local effects), deforestation at a given location can cause changes in temperature elsewhere (nonlocal effects). Most previous studies have not considered local and nonlocal effects separately, but investigated the total (local plus nonlocal) effects, for which global deforestation was found to cause a global mean cooling. Recent modeling and observational studies focused on the isolated local effects: The local effects are relevant for local living conditions, and they can be obtained from in-situ and satellite observations. Observational studies suggest that the local effects of potential deforestation cause a warming when averaged globally. This contrast between local warming and total cooling indicates that the nonlocal effects of deforestation are causing a cooling and thus counteract the local effects. It is still unclear how the nonlocal effects depend on the spatial scale of deforestation, and whether they still compensate the local warming in a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation. To investigate this, we use a fully coupled climate model and separate local and nonlocal effects of deforestation in three steps: Starting from a forest world, we simulate deforestation in one out of four grid boxes using a regular spatial pattern and increase the number of deforestation grid boxes step-wise up to three out of four boxes in subsequent simulations. To compare these idealized spatial distributions of deforestation to a more realistic case, we separate local and nonlocal effects in a simulation where deforestation is applied in regions where it occurred historically. We find that the nonlocal effects scale nearly linearly with the number of deforested grid boxes, and the spatial distribution of the nonlocal effects is similar for the regular spatial distribution of deforestation and the more realistic pattern. Globally averaged, the deforestation-induced warming of the local effects is counteracted by the nonlocal effects, which are about three times as strong as the local effects (up to 0.1K local warming versus -0.3K nonlocal cooling). Thus, the nonlocal effects are more cooling than the local effects are warming, and this is valid not only for idealized simulations of large-scale deforestation, but also for a more realistic deforestation scenario. We conclude that the local effects of deforestation only yield an incomplete picture of the total climate effects by biogeophysical pathways. While the local effects capture the direct climatic response at the site of deforestation, the nonlocal effects have to be included if the biogeophysical effects of deforestation are considered for an implementation in climate policies.

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE PAGES

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; ...

2017-03-27

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slowmore » patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.« less

Experimental Warming Aggravates Degradation-Induced Topsoil Drought in Alpine Meadows of The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, X.

2017-12-01

Climatic warming is presumed to cause topsoil drought by increasing evapotranspiration and water infiltration, and by progressively inducing land degradation in alpine meadows of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. However, how soil moisture and temperature patterns of degraded alpine meadows respond to climate warming remains unclear. A six-year continuous warming experiment was carried out in both degraded and undegraded alpine meadows in the source region of the Yangtze River. The goal was to identify the effects of climatic warming and land degradation on soil moisture (θ), soil surface temperature (Tsfc), and soil temperature (Ts). In the present study, land degradation significantly reduced θ by 4.5-6.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm (P < 0.001), and increased the annual mean Tsfc by 0.8°C. Warming with an infrared heater (radiation output of 150 W m-2) significantly increased the annual mean Tsfc by 2.5°C (P < 0.001) and significantly increased θ by 4.7% at a depth of 40-60 cm. Experimental warming in degraded land reversed the positive effects of the infrared heater and caused the yearly average θ to decrease significantly by 3.7-8.1% at a depth of 0-100 cm. Our research reveals that land degradation caused a significant water deficit near the soil surface. Experimental warming aggravated topsoil drought caused by land degradation, intensified the magnitude of degradation, and caused a positive feedback in the degraded alpine meadow ecosystem. Therefore, an immediate need exists to restore degraded alpine meadow grasslands in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in anticipation of a warmer future.

WCRP's Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project: Climate Change and Middle and Low Latitude Glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dick, C. A.; Clic Project, W.

2004-12-01

The newest World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Core Project, the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project, is concerned with all aspects of the interactions between the cryosphere and climate. The cryosphere, defined as those portions of the Earth's surface where water exists in solid form, is an integral part of the climate system, both responding to, and influencing climate change. The cryosphere also provides many of the best indicators of climate variability and change. In addition to a range of direct physical indicators (e.g., snow/sea ice/glacier extent and thickness, river and lake freeze-up/break-up dates, etc.), ice cores from glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets have been shown to contain a wealth of information about past climate and environmental conditions. Ice cores are of particular value, since they often come from areas that are remote and poorly observed, yet have a major effect on the climate of the rest of the globe. General Circulation Models (GCMs) usually predict that the Earth's polar regions will warm fastest with the increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. However, models also indicate that continental interiors should warm more quickly than marine areas at non-polar latitudes. In fact, while some areas in the Arctic and Antarctic have warmed rapidly over the last few decades, it has generally been in the middle and low latitudes that the greatest effects of climate change have been observed. Particularly obvious has been the widespread retreat of glaciers. This retreat, and the warming which it implies, will have not only important scientific consequences but also socio-economic consequences in areas where glacier melt-water is an important component of the water supply. Glaciers preserve records of climate and the environment through both the isotopic composition of the water molecules, and through the chemicals 'trapped' in the snow, firn and ice layers. In polythermal (i.e., cold) glaciers where only limited melt occurs, the isotopic and chemical signals remain largely undisturbed, and ice cores can provide excellent high resolution records of past conditions. In temperate glaciers, where the ice is at its pressure melting point throughout, diffusion processes are much more rapid, and summer melt and run-off can drastically alter the chemical composition. Much of the climatic and environmental information is destroyed. This presentation will discuss the very serious concern that so many middle and low latitude glaciers are retreating and warming. The CliC Project recognizes an urgent need to recover ice cores from all non-polar glaciated regions before warming affects the glaciers and removes the information they contain. Without such information our ability to understand the climate changes that have occurred in the world's mountainous regions will be restricted, and our ability to model and predict future climate will be severely impaired.

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Annual Removal of Aboveground Plant Biomass Alters Soil Microbial Responses to Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xue, Kai; Yuan, Mengting M.; Xie, Jianping

Clipping (i.e., harvesting aboveground plant biomass) is common in agriculture and for bioenergy production. However, microbial responses to clipping in the context of climate warming are poorly understood. We investigated the interactive effects of grassland warming and clipping on soil properties and plant and microbial communities, in particular, on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone did not change the plant biomass production, but warming and clipping combined increased the C4 peak biomass by 47% and belowground net primary production by 110%. Clipping alone and in combination with warming decreased the soil carbon input from litter by 81% and 75%, respectively. Withmore » less carbon input, the abundances of genes involved in degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon increased by 38% to 137% in response to either clipping or the combined treatment, which could weaken long-term soil carbon stability and trigger positive feedback with respect to warming. Clipping alone also increased the abundance of genes for nitrogen fixation, mineralization, and denitrification by 32% to 39%. Such potentially stimulated nitrogen fixation could help compensate for the 20% decline in soil ammonium levels caused by clipping alone and could contribute to unchanged plant biomass levels. Moreover, clipping tended to interact antagonistically with warming, especially with respect to effects on nitrogen cycling genes, demonstrating that single-factor studies cannot predict multifactorial changes. These results revealed that clipping alone or in combination with warming altered soil and plant properties as well as the abundance and structure of soil microbial functional genes. Aboveground biomass removal for biofuel production needs to be reconsidered, as the long-term soil carbon stability may be weakened. IMPORTANCE Global change involves simultaneous alterations, including those caused by climate warming and land management practices (e.g., clipping). Data on the interactive effects of warming and clipping on ecosystems remain elusive, particularly in microbial ecology. This study found that clipping alters microbial responses to warming and demonstrated the effects of antagonistic interactions between clipping and warming on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone or combined with warming enriched genes degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon, likely reflecting the decreased quantity of soil carbon input from litter, which could weaken long-term soil C stability and trigger positive warming feedback. These results have important implications in assessing and predicting the consequences of global climate change and indicate that the removal of aboveground biomass for biofuel production may need to be reconsidered.« less

Annual Removal of Aboveground Plant Biomass Alters Soil Microbial Responses to Warming

DOE PAGES

Xue, Kai; Yuan, Mengting M.; Xie, Jianping; ...

2016-09-27

Clipping (i.e., harvesting aboveground plant biomass) is common in agriculture and for bioenergy production. However, microbial responses to clipping in the context of climate warming are poorly understood. We investigated the interactive effects of grassland warming and clipping on soil properties and plant and microbial communities, in particular, on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone did not change the plant biomass production, but warming and clipping combined increased the C4 peak biomass by 47% and belowground net primary production by 110%. Clipping alone and in combination with warming decreased the soil carbon input from litter by 81% and 75%, respectively. Withmore » less carbon input, the abundances of genes involved in degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon increased by 38% to 137% in response to either clipping or the combined treatment, which could weaken long-term soil carbon stability and trigger positive feedback with respect to warming. Clipping alone also increased the abundance of genes for nitrogen fixation, mineralization, and denitrification by 32% to 39%. Such potentially stimulated nitrogen fixation could help compensate for the 20% decline in soil ammonium levels caused by clipping alone and could contribute to unchanged plant biomass levels. Moreover, clipping tended to interact antagonistically with warming, especially with respect to effects on nitrogen cycling genes, demonstrating that single-factor studies cannot predict multifactorial changes. These results revealed that clipping alone or in combination with warming altered soil and plant properties as well as the abundance and structure of soil microbial functional genes. Aboveground biomass removal for biofuel production needs to be reconsidered, as the long-term soil carbon stability may be weakened. IMPORTANCE Global change involves simultaneous alterations, including those caused by climate warming and land management practices (e.g., clipping). Data on the interactive effects of warming and clipping on ecosystems remain elusive, particularly in microbial ecology. This study found that clipping alters microbial responses to warming and demonstrated the effects of antagonistic interactions between clipping and warming on microbial functional genes. Clipping alone or combined with warming enriched genes degrading relatively recalcitrant carbon, likely reflecting the decreased quantity of soil carbon input from litter, which could weaken long-term soil C stability and trigger positive warming feedback. These results have important implications in assessing and predicting the consequences of global climate change and indicate that the removal of aboveground biomass for biofuel production may need to be reconsidered.« less

Noachian Climate of Mars: Insights from Noachian Stratigraphy and Valley Networks System Formation Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, J. W., III

2017-12-01

Noachian climate models have been proposed in order to account for 1) observed fluvial and lacustrine activity, 2) weathering processes producing phyllosilicates, and 3) an unusual impact record including three major impact basins and unusual degradation processes. We adopt a stratigraphic approach in order place these observations in a temporal context. Formation of the major impact basins Hellas, Isidis and Argyre in earlier Noachian profoundly influenced the uplands geology and appears to have occurred concurrently with major phyllosilicate and related surface occurrences/deposits; the immediate aftermath of these basins appears to have created a temporary hot and wet surface environment with significant effect on surface morphology and alteration processes. Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. We examined estimates for the time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Synthesis of required timescales show that the total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, < 0.25% of the total Noachian. What climate models can account for the VNS? 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. 2) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases or episodic stochastic events: Climate is sustained cold/icy, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins, bringing the annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K); punctuated warming alternatives include impacts or volcanic eruptions. We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with modest greenhouse warming or punctuated warming and melting events for the VNs origin is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Dependency of black-carbon-induced atmospheric warming on the concentration of sulphate and organic aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S.; Yoon, S.; in-Jin, C.; Ramanathan, V.; Ramana, M.

2010-12-01

Previous modeling studies have showed that the net radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols generated by fossil-fuel combustion and biomass-fuel cooking contribute to a warming by absorbing solar radiation, and the warming effect of fossil-fuel BC is larger than that of biomass-fuel cooking [Ramana et al., Nature Geoscience, 2010]. However, the extent of BC warming is regulated by the ambient concentrations of sulphate and organic carbon (OC) aerosols, which reflect the solar radiation and cool the surface, thus enhancing the net warming caused by BC and GHGs. This is because the major sources of BC also emit CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) (that warm the climate), and sulfates, nitrates, organics and other particles (that cool the climate). In this study, we present the impact of BC-to-sulphate and BC-to-OC ratios on atmospheric warming on the basis of surface-based filter and in-situ measurements at Gosan climate observatory in Jeju, South Korea and radiative transfer calculations with AERONET Cimel sun/sky radiometer and micro-pulse lidar measurements as a model input. We investigate (1) BC-to-sulphate and BC-to-OC ratios, (2) aerosol solar-absorption efficiency (i.e., co-single scattering albedo) and (3) corresponding atmospheric direct radiative forcing and heating rate of aerosol plumes from N. China (Beijing), S. China (Shanghai) and clean marine sources during ACE-Asia (April-May 2001), ABC-EAREX2005 (March-April 2005) and CAMPEX (August-September 2008), and discuss their relationships.

Vegetation-induced warming of high-latitude regions during the Late Cretaceous period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Upchurch, Garland R.

1997-02-01

Modelling studies of pre-Quaternary (>2 million years ago) climate implicate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1, land elevation2 and land-sea distribution3-5 as important factors influencing global climate change over geological timescales. But during times of global warmth, such as the Cretaceous period and Eocene epoch, there are large discrepancies between model simulations of high-latitude and continental-interior temperatures and those indicated by palaeotemperature records6,7. Here we use a global climate model for the latest Cretaceous (66 million years ago) to examine the role played by high- and middle-latitude forests in surface temperature regulation. In our simulations, this forest vegetation warms the global climate by 2.2 °C. The low-albedo deciduous forests cause high-latitude land areas to warm, which then transfer more heat to adjacent oceans, thus delaying sea-ice formation and increasing winter temperatures over coastal land. Overall, the inclusion of some of the physical and physiological climate feedback effects of high-latitude forest vegetation in our simulations reduces the existing discrepancies between observed and modelled climates of the latest Cretaceous, suggesting that these forests may have made an important contribution to climate regulation during periods of global warmth.

Impact of regional climate change on human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

2005-11-01

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.

California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

DOE PAGES

Yoon, Jin -Ho; Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; ...

2015-10-21

California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history since the winter of 2013-2014. The long duration of drought has stressed statewide water resources and the economy, while fueling an extraordinary increase in wildfires. The effects of global warming on the regional climate include a hotter and drier climate, as well as earlier snowmelt, both of which exacerbate drought conditions. However, connections between a changing climate and how climate oscillations modulate regional water cycle extremes are not well understood. Here we analyze large-ensemble simulations of future climate change in California using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)more » and multiple climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% toward the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, the projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with tighter relation to El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), particularly extreme El Niño and La Niña events, which modulates California’s climate not only through its warm and cold phases, but also ENSO’s precursor patterns.« less

Impact of regional climate change on human health.

PubMed

Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

2005-11-17

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Doak, Daniel F; Morris, William F

2010-10-21

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.

Heterotrophic Soil Respiration in Warming Experiments: Using Microbial Indicators to Partition Contributions from Labile and Recalcitrant Soil Organic Carbon. Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradford, M A; Melillo, J M; Reynolds, J F

2010-06-10

The central objective of the proposed work was to develop a genomic approach (nucleic acid-based) that elucidates the mechanistic basis for the observed impacts of experimental soil warming on forest soil respiration. The need to understand the mechanistic basis arises from the importance of such information for developing effective adaptation strategies for dealing with projected climate change. Specifically, robust predictions of future climate will permit the tailoring of the most effective adaptation efforts. And one of the greatest uncertainties in current global climate models is whether there will be a net loss of carbon from soils to the atmosphere asmore » climate warms. Given that soils contain approximately 2.5 times as much carbon as the atmosphere, a net loss could lead to runaway climate warming. Indeed, most ecosystem models predict that climate warming will stimulate microbial decomposition of soil carbon, producing such a positive feedback to rising global temperatures. Yet the IPCC highlights the uncertainty regarding this projected feedback. The uncertainty arises because although warming-experiments document an initial increase in the loss of carbon from soils, the increase in respiration is short-lived, declining to control levels in a few years. This attenuation could result from changes in microbial physiology with temperature. We explored possible microbial responses to warming using experiments and modeling. Our work advances our understanding of how soil microbial communities and their activities are structured, generating insight into how soil carbon might respond to warming. We show the importance of resource partitioning in structuring microbial communities. Specifically, we quantified the relative abundance of fungal taxa that proliferated following the addition of organic substrates to soil. We added glycine, sucrose, cellulose, lignin, or tannin-protein to soils in conjunction with 3-bromo-deoxyuridine (BrdU), a nucleotide analog. Active microbes absorb BrdU from the soil solution; if they multiply in response to substrate additions, they incorporate the BrdU into their DNA. After allowing soils to incubate, we extracted BrdU-labeled DNA and sequenced the ITS regions of fungal rDNA. Fungal taxa that proliferated following substrate addition were likely using the substrate as a resource for growth. We found that the structure of active fungal communities varied significantly among substrates. The active fungal community under glycine was significantly different from those under other conditions, while the active communities under sucrose and cellulose were marginally different from each other and the control. These results indicate that the overall community structure of active fungi was altered by the addition of glycine, sucrose, and cellulose and implies that some fungal taxa respond to changes in resource availability. The community composition of active fungi is also altered by experimental warming. We found that glycine-users tended to increase under warming, while lignin-, tannin/protein-, and sucrose-users declined. The latter group of substrates requires extracellular enzymes for use, but glycine does not. It is possible that warming selects for fungal species that target, in particular, labile substrates. Linking these changes in microbial communities and resource partitioning to soil carbon dynamics, we find that substrate mineralization rates are, in general, significantly lower in soils exposed to long-term warming. This suggests that microbial use of organic substrates is impaired by warming. Yet effects are dependent on substrate identity. There are fundamental differences in the metabolic capabilities of the communities in the control and warmed soils. These differences might relate to the changes in microbial community composition, which appeared to be associated with groups specialized on different resources. We also find that functional responses indicate temperature acclimation of the microbial community. There are distinct seasonal patterns and to long-term soil warming, with higher-temperature optima for soils exposed to warmer temperatures. To relate these changes within the microbial community to potential positive feedbacks between climate warming and soil respiration, we develop a microbial-enzyme model to simulate the responses of soil carbon to warming. We find that declines in microbial biomass and degradative enzymes can explain the observed attenuation of soil-carbon emissions in response to warming. Specifically, reduced carbon-use efficiency limits the biomass of microbial decomposers and mitigates loss of soil carbon. However, microbial adaptation or a change in microbial communities could lead to an upward adjustment of the efficiency of carbon use, counteracting the decline in microbial biomass and accelerating soil-carbon loss. We conclude that the soil-carbon response to climate warming depends on the efficiency of soil microbes in using carbon.« less

Impacts of climate change and climate extremes on major crops productivity in China at a global warming of 1.5 and 2.0 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi; Zhang, Zhao; Tao, Fulu

2018-05-01

A new temperature goal of holding the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels has been established in the Paris Agreement, which calls for an understanding of climate risk under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. Here, we evaluated the effects of climate change on growth and productivity of three major crops (i.e. maize, wheat, rice) in China during 2106-2115 in warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2.0 °C using a method of ensemble simulation with well-validated Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area (MCWLA) family crop models, their 10 sets of optimal crop model parameters and 70 climate projections from four global climate models. We presented the spatial patterns of changes in crop growth duration, crop yield, impacts of heat and drought stress, as well as crop yield variability and the probability of crop yield decrease. Results showed that climate change would have major negative impacts on crop production, particularly for wheat in north China, rice in south China and maize across the major cultivation areas, due to a decrease in crop growth duration and an increase in extreme events. By contrast, with moderate increases in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentration, agricultural climate resources such as light and thermal resources could be ameliorated, which would enhance canopy photosynthesis and consequently biomass accumulations and yields. The moderate climate change would slightly worsen the maize growth environment but would result in a much more appropriate growth environment for wheat and rice. As a result, wheat, rice and maize yields would change by +3.9 (+8.6), +4.1 (+9.4) and +0.2 % (-1.7 %), respectively, in a warming scenario of 1.5 °C (2.0 °C). In general, the warming scenarios would bring more opportunities than risks for crop development and food security in China. Moreover, although the variability of crop yield would increase from 1.5 °C warming to 2.0 °C warming, the probability of a crop yield decrease would decrease. Our findings highlight that the 2.0 °C warming scenario would be more suitable for crop production in China, but more attention should be paid to the expected increase in extreme event impacts.

How much would five trillion tonnes of carbon warm the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna Kasia; Gillett, Nathan P.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Arora, Vivek K.

2016-04-01

While estimates of fossil fuel reserves and resources are very uncertain, and the amount which could ultimately be burnt under a business as usual scenario would depend on prevailing economic and technological conditions, an amount of five trillion tonnes of carbon (5 EgC), corresponding to the lower end of the range of estimates of the total fossil fuel resource, is often cited as an estimate of total cumulative emissions in the absence of mitigation actions. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report indicates that an approximately linear relationship between warming and cumulative carbon emissions holds only up to around 2 EgC emissions. It is typically assumed that at higher cumulative emissions the warming would tend to be less than that predicted by such a linear relationship, with the radiative saturation effect dominating the effects of positive carbon-climate feedbacks at high emissions, as predicted by simple carbon-climate models. We analyze simulations from four state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and seven Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs), driven by the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 Extension scenario (RCP 8.5 Ext), which represents a very high emission scenario of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in absence of climate mitigation policies. Our results demonstrate that while terrestrial and ocean carbon storage varies between the models, the CO2-induced warming continues to increase approximately linearly with cumulative carbon emissions even for higher levels of cumulative emissions, in all four ESMs. Five of the seven EMICs considered simulate a similarly linear response, while two exhibit less warming at higher cumulative emissions for reasons we discuss. The ESMs simulate global mean warming of 6.6-11.0°C, mean Arctic warming of 15.3-19.7°C, and mean regional precipitation increases and decreases by more than a factor of four, in response to 5EgC, with smaller forcing contributions from other greenhouse gases. These results indicate that the unregulated exploitation of the fossil fuel resource would ultimately result in considerably more profound climate changes than previously suggested.

Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils.

PubMed

De Frenne, Pieter; Coomes, David A; De Schrijver, An; Staelens, Jeroen; Alexander, Jake M; Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus; Brunet, Jörg; Chabrerie, Olivier; Chiarucci, Alessandro; den Ouden, Jan; Eckstein, R Lutz; Graae, Bente J; Gruwez, Robert; Hédl, Radim; Hermy, Martin; Kolb, Annette; Mårell, Anders; Mullender, Samantha M; Olsen, Siri L; Orczewska, Anna; Peterken, George; Petřík, Petr; Plue, Jan; Simonson, William D; Tomescu, Cezar V; Vangansbeke, Pieter; Verstraeten, Gorik; Vesterdal, Lars; Wulf, Monika; Verheyen, Kris

2014-04-01

Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently 'colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

The geological and climatological case for a warmer and wetter early Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, Ramses M.; Craddock, Robert A.

2018-04-01

The climate of early Mars remains a topic of intense debate. Ancient terrains preserve landscapes consistent with stream channels, lake basins and possibly even oceans, and thus the presence of liquid water flowing on the Martian surface 4 billion years ago. However, despite the geological evidence, determining how long climatic conditions supporting liquid water lasted remains uncertain. Climate models have struggled to generate sufficiently warm surface conditions given the faint young Sun—even assuming a denser early atmosphere. A warm climate could have potentially been sustained by supplementing atmospheric CO2 and H2O warming with either secondary greenhouse gases or clouds. Alternatively, the Martian climate could have been predominantly cold and icy, with transient warming episodes triggered by meteoritic impacts, volcanic eruptions, methane bursts or limit cycles. Here, we argue that a warm and semi-arid climate capable of producing rain is most consistent with the geological and climatological evidence.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

DOE PAGES

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; ...

2016-12-06

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give verymore » similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.« less

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming.

PubMed

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B B; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A

2016-12-06

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Reduced feeding activity of soil detritivores under warmer and drier conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thakur, Madhav P.; Reich, Peter B.; Hobbie, Sarah E.; Stefanski, Artur; Rich, Roy; Rice, Karen E.; Eddy, William C.; Eisenhauer, Nico

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic warming is projected to trigger positive feedbacks to climate by enhancing carbon losses from the soil1. While such losses are, in part, due to increased decomposition of organic matter by invertebrate detritivores, it is unknown how detritivore feeding activity will change with warming2, especially under drought conditions. Here, using four-year manipulation experiments in two North American boreal forests, we investigate how temperature (ambient, ambient + 1.7 °C and ambient + 3.4 °C) and rainfall (ambient and -40% of the summer precipitation) perturbations influence detritivore feeding activity. In contrast to general expectations1,3, warming had negligible net effects on detritivore feeding activity at ambient precipitation. However, when combined with precipitation reductions, warming decreased feeding activity by 14%. Across all plots and dates, detritivore feeding activity was positively associated with bulk soil microbial respiration. These results suggest slower rates of decomposition of soil organic matter and thus reduced positive feedbacks to climate under anthropogenic climate change.

The relationship between Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Fedorov, A. V.

2017-12-01

A recent study (Sevellec, Fedorov, Liu 2017, Nature Climate Change) has suggested that Arctic sea ice decline can lead to a slow-down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we build on this previous work and explore the relationship between Arctic sea ice and the AMOC in climate models. We find that the current Arctic sea ice decline can contribute about 40% to the AMOC weakening over the next 60 years. This effect is related to the warming and freshening of the upper ocean in the Arctic, and the subsequent spread of generated buoyancy anomalies downstream where they affect the North Atlantic deep convection sites and hence the AMOC on multi-decadal timescales. The weakening of the AMOC and its poleward heat transport, in turn, sustains the "Warming Hole" - a region in the North Atlantic with anomalously weak (or even negative) warming trends. We discuss the key factors that control this robust AMOC response to changes in Arctic sea ice.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin; Hawkins, Ed; Jonko, Alexandra; Lowe, Jason A.

2016-12-01

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. Here using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. We show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give very similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. The results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.

Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Good, Peter; Booth, Ben B. B.; Chadwick, Robin

For adaptation and mitigation planning, stakeholders need reliable information about regional precipitation changes under different emissions scenarios and for different time periods. A significant amount of current planning effort assumes that each K of global warming produces roughly the same regional climate change. By using 25 climate models, we compare precipitation responses with three 2 K intervals of global ensemble mean warming: a fast and a slower route to a first 2 K above pre-industrial levels, and the end-of-century difference between high-emission and mitigation scenarios. Here, we show that, although the two routes to a first 2 K give verymore » similar precipitation changes, a second 2 K produces quite a different response. In particular, the balance of physical mechanisms responsible for climate model uncertainty is different for a first and a second 2 K of warming. Our results are consistent with a significant influence from nonlinear physical mechanisms, but aerosol and land-use effects may be important regionally.« less

Climate Effect of Greenhouse Gas: Warming or Cooling is Determined by Temperature Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shia, R.

2011-12-01

The instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) at the top of the atmosphere (ToA) is the initial change of the total energy in the climate system when the concentration of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases. In my previous presentation at the 2010 Fall AGU meeting (A11J-02, "Mechanism of Radiative Forcing of Greenhouse Gas its Implication to the Global Warming"), it was demonstrated that IRF at TOA is generated by moving up of the emission weighting function. Thus, the temperature gradient plays a critical role in determining the climate effect of GHG. In this presentation the change of the outgoing infrared radiation flux at ToA is studied from a perturbation point of view. After the cancellation between the changes in the outgoing radiation flux from the surface emission and from the reemission of the atmosphere, the derivative of the outgoing flux to the concentration of GHG is found to be proportional to the temperature gradients below the level where the concentration of GHG changes. Therefore, the greenhouse gas contribute only to the magnitude of the radiative forcing, the temperature gradients decide the direction of the radiative forcing, i.e. warming or cooling, in addition to contributing to its magnitude. In response to the question "Does the negative IRF at ToA lead to the surface cooling or it only cools the upper part of the atmosphere?" the Eddington grey radiative equilibrium model is modified to simulate different scenarios. The original model has been used to illustrate the warming effect of GHG in textbooks of the atmospheric physics. It is modified by adding source terms from the absorption of the solar flux and the internal energy exchange in the atmosphere. In two cases the modified model generates atmospheres with a large and warm stratosphere and negative IRF at ToA when GHG increases by 25%. This negative radiative forcing can lead to the cooling of the atmosphere all the way down to the surface. The implications of the cooling effect of GHG to the climate change, including paleoclimatology and the prerequests for climate models to include cooling effect of GHG properly are discussed.

Effects of experimental warming and mowing on greenhouse gas fluxes in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jinsong; Quan, Quan; Sun, Jian; Niu, Shuli

2017-04-01

Rapid climate change and intensified human activities on the Tibetan Plateau may alter the magnitude and direction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, affecting the climate change impact on these fragile ecosystems. We conducted a controlled experiment to investigate the effects of warming and mowing (simulation of grazing) on soil CO2, CH4 and N2O fluxes in an alpine meadow in eastern Tibetan Plateau between August 2015 and July 2016. Three levels of temperature (C, ambient temperature; W1, < 2 °C warming at 5 cm soil depth by infrared heaters; and W2, > 2 °C warming) were combined with two levels of mowing treatment (UM, un-mowing; and M, mowing). GHG fluxes were measured once an hour using static chamber. Both CO2 emission and CH4 uptake rates showed a seasonal fluctuation, with the maximum value occurred in late summer and the minimum in winter. However, N2O flux did not show a strong seasonal pattern. High level of warming (W2) regardless of mowing significantly increased CO2 emission and CH4 uptake by 15.4 % and 38.2 % averaged over the year, compared with no-warming (C). Moderate warming (W1) did not have significant effects on either CO2 or CH4 fluxes. N2O flux was reduced by 54.1% by W2 and 15.7% by W1 warming. Mowing alone increased CH4 uptake and N2O emission by 18.0 % and 12.7%, respectively, but had no significant effect on CO2 flux. The interactions between warming and mowing were detected in CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Among all treatments, W2UM in general had the highest rates of CO2 emission and CH4 uptake but the lowest rate of N2O flux, while CUM and CM showed the opposite. In addition, warming induced increase in CH4 uptake and decline in N2O release had very limited ability to offset the enhanced CO2 emission, resulting in a net positive feedback of the three GHGs to climate warming. Furthermore, daily CO2 flux increased exponentially with soil temperature at 5 cm. CH4 flux correlated negatively with soil temperature but positively with soil moisture.

Detecting the global and regional effects of sulphate aerosol geoengineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lo, Eunice; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Highwood, Ellie

2017-04-01

Climate warming is unequivocal. In addition to carbon dioxide emission mitigation, some geoengineering ideas have been proposed to reduce future surface temperature rise. One of these proposals involves injecting sulphate aerosols into the stratosphere to increase the planet's albedo. Monitoring the effectiveness of sulphate aerosol injection (SAI) would require us to be able to distinguish and detect its cooling effect from the climate system's internal variability and other externally forced temperature changes. This research uses optimal fingerprinting techniques together with simulations from the GeoMIP data base to estimate the number of years of observations that would be needed to detect SAI's cooling signal in near-surface air temperature, should 5 Tg of sulphur dioxide be injected into the stratosphere per year on top of RCP4.5 from 2020-2070. The first part of the research compares the application of two detection methods that have different null hypotheses to SAI detection in global mean near-surface temperature. The first method assumes climate noise to be dominated by unforced climate variability and attempts to detect the SAI cooling signal and greenhouse gas driven warming signal in the "observations" simultaneously against this noise. The second method considers greenhouse gas driven warming to be a non-stationary background climate and attempts to detect the net cooling effect of SAI against this background. Results from this part of the research show that the conventional multi-variate detection method that has been extensively used to attribute climate warming to anthropogenic sources could also be applied for geoengineering detection. The second part of the research investigates detection of geoengineering effects on the regional scale. The globe is divided into various sub-continental scale regions and the cooling effect of SAI is looked for in the temperature time series in each of these regions using total least squares multi-variate detection. Results show that surface temperature observations would be most useful for SAI detection in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, especially in East Asia. This can be used to indicate the optimal observational network for monitoring the effectiveness of SAI in the future, should that be needed.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-07

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming.

PubMed

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-20

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

PubMed Central

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-01-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming. PMID:28317914

Daytime warming has stronger negative effects on soil nematodes than night-time warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Xiumin; Wang, Kehong; Song, Lihong; Wang, Xuefeng; Wu, Donghui

2017-03-01

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, that is, stronger warming during night-time than during daytime. Here we focus on how soil nematodes respond to the current asymmetric warming. A field infrared heating experiment was performed in the western of the Songnen Plain, Northeast China. Three warming modes, i.e. daytime warming, night-time warming and diurnal warming, were taken to perform the asymmetric warming condition. Our results showed that the daytime and diurnal warming treatment significantly decreased soil nematodes density, and night-time warming treatment marginally affected the density. The response of bacterivorous nematode and fungivorous nematode to experimental warming showed the same trend with the total density. Redundancy analysis revealed an opposite effect of soil moisture and soil temperature, and the most important of soil moisture and temperature in night-time among the measured environment factors, affecting soil nematode community. Our findings suggested that daily minimum temperature and warming induced drying are most important factors affecting soil nematode community under the current global asymmetric warming.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

PubMed

Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-19

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

PubMed Central

Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-01

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

Impacts of day versus night warming on soil microclimate: results from a semiarid temperate steppe.

PubMed

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Shiping; Wan, Shiqiang

2010-06-15

One feature of climate warming is that increases in daily minimum temperature are greater than those in daily maximum temperature. Changes in soil microclimate in response to the asymmetrically diurnal warming scenarios can help to explain responses of ecosystem processes. In the present study, we examined the impacts of day, night, and continuous warming on soil microclimate in a temperate steppe in northern China. Our results showed that day, night, and continuous warming (approximately 13Wm(-2) with constant power mode) significantly increased daily mean soil temperature at 10cm depth by 0.71, 0.78, and 1.71 degrees C, respectively. Night warming caused greater increases in nighttime mean and daily minimum soil temperatures (0.74 and 0.99 degrees C) than day warming did (0.60 and 0.66 degrees C). However, there were no differences in the increases in daytime mean and daily maximum soil temperature between day (0.81 and 1.13 degrees C) and night (0.81 and 1.10 degrees C) warming. The differential effects of day and night warming on soil temperature varied with environmental factors, including photosynthetic active radiation, vapor-pressure deficit, and wind speed. When compared with the effect of continuous warming on soil temperature, the summed effects of day and night warming were lower during daytime, but greater at night, thus leading to equality at daily scale. Mean volumetric soil moisture at the depth of 0-40cm significantly decreased under continuous warming in both 2006 (1.44 V/V%) and 2007 (0.76 V/V%). Day warming significantly reduced volumetric soil moisture only in 2006, whereas night warming had no effect on volumetric soil moisture in both 2006 and 2007. Given the different diurnal warming patterns and variability of environmental factors among ecosystems, these results highlight the importance of incorporating the differential impacts of day and night warming on soil microclimate into the predictions of terrestrial ecosystem responses to climate warming. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes.

PubMed

Walsh, Michael G; de Smalen, Allard W; Mor, Siobhan M

2018-06-18

Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on geographic anthrax suitability in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating risk. Machine learning was used to model anthrax suitability in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.

Seahorses under a changing ocean: the impact of warming and acidification on the behaviour and physiology of a poor-swimming bony-armoured fish.

PubMed

Faleiro, Filipa; Baptista, Miguel; Santos, Catarina; Aurélio, Maria L; Pimentel, Marta; Pegado, Maria Rita; Paula, José Ricardo; Calado, Ricardo; Repolho, Tiago; Rosa, Rui

2015-01-01

Seahorses are currently facing great challenges in the wild, including habitat degradation and overexploitation, and how they will endure additional stress from rapid climate change has yet to be determined. Unlike most fishes, the poor swimming skills of seahorses, along with the ecological and biological constraints of their unique lifestyle, place great weight on their physiological ability to cope with climate changes. In the present study, we evaluate the effects of ocean warming (+4°C) and acidification (ΔpH = -0.5 units) on the physiological and behavioural ecology of adult temperate seahorses, Hippocampus guttulatus. Adult seahorses were found to be relatively well prepared to face future changes in ocean temperature, but not the combined effect of warming and acidification. Seahorse metabolism increased normally with warming, and behavioural and feeding responses were not significantly affected. However, during hypercapnia the seahorses exhibited signs of lethargy (i.e. reduced activity levels) combined with a reduction of feeding and ventilation rates. Nonetheless, metabolic rates were not significantly affected. Future ocean changes, particularly ocean acidification, may further threaten seahorse conservation, turning these charismatic fishes into important flagship species for global climate change issues.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

PubMed Central

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-01-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state. PMID:27461560

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.

2016-07-01

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or “committed” warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

High chance that current atmospheric greenhouse concentrations commit to warmings greater than 1.5 °C over land.

PubMed

Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M

2016-07-27

The recent Paris UNFCCC climate meeting discussed the possibility of limiting global warming to 2 °C since pre-industrial times, or possibly even 1.5 °C, which would require major future emissions reductions. However, even if climate is stabilised at current atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, those warming targets would almost certainly be surpassed in the context of mean temperature increases over land only. The reason for this is two-fold. First, current transient warming lags significantly below equilibrium or "committed" warming. Second, almost all climate models indicate warming rates over land are much higher than those for the oceans. We demonstrate this potential for high eventual temperatures over land, even for contemporary GHG levels, using a large set of climate models and for which climate sensitivities are known. Such additional land warming has implications for impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and human well-being. This suggests that even if massive and near-immediate emissions reductions occur such that atmospheric GHGs increase further by only small amounts, careful planning is needed by society to prepare for higher land temperatures in an eventual equilibrium climatic state.

Ocean acidification ameliorates harmful effects of warming in primary consumer.

PubMed

Pedersen, Sindre Andre; Hanssen, Anja Elise

2018-01-01

Climate change-induced warming and ocean acidification are considered two imminent threats to marine biodiversity and current ecosystem structures. Here, we have for the first time examined an animal's response to a complete life cycle of exposure to co-occurring warming (+3°C) and ocean acidification (+1,600 μatm CO 2 ), using the key subarctic planktonic copepod, Calanus finmarchicus , as a model species. The animals were generally negatively affected by warming, which significantly reduced the females' energy status and reproductive parameters (respectively, 95% and 69%-87% vs. control). Unexpectedly, simultaneous acidification partially offset the negative effect of warming in an antagonistic manner, significantly improving reproductive parameters and hatching success (233%-340% improvement vs. single warming exposure). The results provide proof of concept that ocean acidification may partially offset negative effects caused by warming in some species. Possible explanations and ecological implications for the observed antagonistic effect are discussed.

The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, P. K.; Twine, T. E.; Hamilton, P.; Shepherd, M.; Stone, B., Jr.

2016-12-01

In much of the world cities are warming at twice the rate of outlying rural areas. The frequency of urban heat waves is projected to increase with climate change through the 21st century. Addressing the economic, environmental, and human costs of urban heat islands requires a better understanding of their behavior from many disciplinary perspectives. The goal of this four-year Urban Heat Island Network is to (1) bring together scientists studying the causes and impacts of urban warming, (2) advance multidisciplinary understanding of urban heat islands, (3) examine how they can be ameliorated through engineering and design practices, and (4) share these new insights with a wide array of stakeholders responsible for managing urban warming to reduce their health, economic, and environmental impacts. The NSF-RCN Urban Heat Island Network involves atmospheric scientists, engineers, architects, landscape designers, urban planners, public health experts, and education and outreach experts, who will share knowledge, evaluate research directions, and communicate knowledge and research recommendations to the larger research community as well as stakeholders engaged in developing strategies to adapt to and mitigate urban warming. The first Urban Climate Institute was held in Saint Paul, MN in July 2013 and focused on the characteristics of urban heat islands. Scientists engaged with local practitioners to improve communication pathways surrounding issues of understanding, adapting to, and mitigating urban warming. The second Urban Climate Institute was held in Atlanta, Georgia in July 2014 and focused on urban warming and public health. The third Urban Climate Institute was held in Athens, GA in July 2015 and focused on urban warming and the role of the built environment. Scientists and practitioners discussed strategies for mitigation and adaptation. The fourth Institute was held in Saint Paul, MN in July 2016 and focused on putting research to practice. Evaluation experts at the Science Museum of Minnesota have extensively evaluated the Institutes to inform other research coordination networks and to identify effective ways that researchers and practitioners can share knowledge and communicate more effectively.

Emissions and temperature benefits: The role of wind power in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duan, Hongbo, E-mail: hbduan@ucas.ac.cn

Background: As a non-fossil technology, wind power has an enormous advantage over coal because of its role in climate change mitigation. Therefore, it is important to investigate how substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity will affect emission reductions, changes in radiative forcing and rising temperatures, particularly in the context of emission limits. Methods: We developed an integrated methodology that includes two parts: an energy-economy-environmental (3E) integrated model and an emission-temperature response model. The former is used to simulate the dynamic relationships between economic output, wind energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; the latter is used to evaluate changes in radiativemore » forcing and warming. Results: Under the present development projection, wind energy cannot serve as a major force in curbing emissions, even under the strictest space-restraining scenario. China's temperature contribution to global warming will be up to 21.76% if warming is limited to 2 degrees. With the wind-for-coal power substitution, the corresponding contribution to global radiative forcing increase and temperature rise will decrease by up to 10% and 6.57%, respectively. Conclusions: Substituting wind power for coal-fired electricity has positive effects on emission reductions and warming control. However, wind energy alone is insufficient for climate change mitigation. It forms an important component of the renewable energy portfolio used to combat global warming. - Highlights: • We assess the warming benefits associated with substitution of wind power for coal. • The effect of emission space limits on climate responses is deeply examined. • China is responsible for at most 21.76% of global warming given the 2-degree target. • Wind power alone may not be sufficient to face the challenge of climate change. • A fertile policy soil and an aggressive plan are necessary to boost renewables.« less

Will temperature effects or phenotypic plasticity determine the thermal response of a heterothermic tropical bat to climate change?

PubMed

Stawski, Clare; Geiser, Fritz

2012-01-01

The proportion of organisms exposed to warm conditions is predicted to increase during global warming. To better understand how bats might respond to climate change, we aimed to obtain the first data on how use of torpor, a crucial survival strategy of small bats, is affected by temperature in the tropics. Over two mild winters, tropical free-ranging bats (Nyctophilus bifax, 10 g, n = 13) used torpor on 95% of study days and were torpid for 33.5±18.8% of 113 days measured. Torpor duration was temperature-dependent and an increase in ambient temperature by the predicted 2°C for the 21(st) century would decrease the time in torpor to 21.8%. However, comparisons among Nyctophilus populations show that regional phenotypic plasticity attenuates temperature effects on torpor patterns. Our data suggest that heterothermy is important for energy budgeting of bats even under warm conditions and that flexible torpor use will enhance bats' chance of survival during climate change.

Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

2016-01-01

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

In situ warming in the Antarctic: effects on growth and photosynthesis in Antarctic vascular plants.

PubMed

Sáez, Patricia L; Cavieres, Lohengrin A; Galmés, Jeroni; Gil-Pelegrín, Eustaquio; Peguero-Pina, José Javier; Sancho-Knapik, Domingo; Vivas, Mercedes; Sanhueza, Carolina; Ramírez, Constanza F; Rivera, Betsy K; Corcuera, Luis J; Bravo, León A

2018-06-01

The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a rapid warming in the last decades. Although recent climatic evidence supports a new tendency towards stabilization of temperatures, the impacts on the biosphere, and specifically on Antarctic plant species, remain unclear. We evaluated the in situ warming effects on photosynthesis, including the underlying diffusive, biochemical and anatomical determinants, and the relative growth of two Antarctic vascular species, Colobanthus quitensis and Deschampsia antarctica, using open top chambers (OTCs) and gas exchange measurements in the field. In C. quitensis, the photosynthetic response to warming relied on specific adjustments in the anatomical determinants of the leaf CO 2 transfer, which enhanced mesophyll conductance and photosynthetic assimilation, thereby promoting higher leaf carbon gain and plant growth. These changes were accompanied by alterations in the leaf chemical composition. By contrast, D. antarctica showed no response to warming, with a lack of significant differences between plants grown inside OTCs and plants grown in the open field. Overall, the present results are the first reporting a contrasting effect of in situ warming on photosynthesis and its underlying determinants, of the two unique Antarctic vascular plant species, which could have direct consequences on their ecological success under future climate conditions. © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

2018-02-01

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0°C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; ...

2018-02-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5°C above preindustrial average temperatures. In this paper, we present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0°C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical stormsmore » is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5°C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.« less

Effects of Warming on CO2 Fluxes in an Alpine Meadow Ecosystem on the Central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Zhang, Weina; Liang, Yan; Li, Yawei; Cao, Xujuan; Wan, Yunfan; Li, Yue; Danjiu, Luobu

2015-01-01

To analyze CO2 fluxes under conditions of climate change in an alpine meadow on the central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, we simulated the effect of warming using open top chambers (OTCs) from 2012 to 2014. The OTCs increased soil temperature by 1.62°C (P < 0.05), but decreased soil moisture (1.38%, P < 0.05) during the experiments. The response of ecosystem CO2 fluxes to warming was variable, and dependent on the year. Under conditions of warming, mean gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) during the growing season increased significantly in 2012 and 2014 (P < 0.05); however, ecosystem respiration (ER) increased substantially only in 2012 (P < 0.05). The net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) increased marginally in 2012 (P = 0.056), did not change in 2013(P > 0.05), and increased significantly in 2014 (P = 0.034) under conditions of warming. The GEP was more sensitive to climate variations than was the ER, resulting in a large increase in net carbon uptake under warming in the alpine meadow. Under warming, the 3-year averages of GEP, ER, and NEE increased by 19.6%, 15.1%, and 21.1%, respectively. The seasonal dynamic patterns of GEP and NEE, but not ER, were significantly impacted by warming. Aboveground biomass, particularly the graminoid biomass increased significantly under conditions of warming. Soil moisture, soil temperature, and aboveground biomass were the main factors that affected the variation of the ecosystem CO2 fluxes. The effect of warming on inter- and intra-annual patterns of ecosystem CO2 fluxes and the mechanism of different sensitivities in GEP and ER to warming, require further researched.

Effects of Warming on CO2 Fluxes in an Alpine Meadow Ecosystem on the Central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Gao, Qingzhu; Zhang, Weina; Liang, Yan; Li, Yawei; Cao, Xujuan; Wan, Yunfan; Li, Yue; Danjiu, Luobu

2015-01-01

To analyze CO2 fluxes under conditions of climate change in an alpine meadow on the central Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, we simulated the effect of warming using open top chambers (OTCs) from 2012 to 2014. The OTCs increased soil temperature by 1.62°C (P < 0.05), but decreased soil moisture (1.38%, P < 0.05) during the experiments. The response of ecosystem CO2 fluxes to warming was variable, and dependent on the year. Under conditions of warming, mean gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) during the growing season increased significantly in 2012 and 2014 (P < 0.05); however, ecosystem respiration (ER) increased substantially only in 2012 (P < 0.05). The net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) increased marginally in 2012 (P = 0.056), did not change in 2013(P > 0.05), and increased significantly in 2014 (P = 0.034) under conditions of warming. The GEP was more sensitive to climate variations than was the ER, resulting in a large increase in net carbon uptake under warming in the alpine meadow. Under warming, the 3-year averages of GEP, ER, and NEE increased by 19.6%, 15.1%, and 21.1%, respectively. The seasonal dynamic patterns of GEP and NEE, but not ER, were significantly impacted by warming. Aboveground biomass, particularly the graminoid biomass increased significantly under conditions of warming. Soil moisture, soil temperature, and aboveground biomass were the main factors that affected the variation of the ecosystem CO2 fluxes. The effect of warming on inter- and intra-annual patterns of ecosystem CO2 fluxes and the mechanism of different sensitivities in GEP and ER to warming, require further researched. PMID:26147223

Experimental evidence of the synergistic effects of warming and invasive algae on a temperate reef-builder coral.

PubMed

Kersting, Diego K; Cebrian, Emma; Casado, Clara; Teixidó, Núria; Garrabou, Joaquim; Linares, Cristina

2015-12-22

In the current global climate change scenario, stressors overlap in space and time, and knowledge on the effects of their interaction is highly needed to understand and predict the response and resilience of organisms. Corals, among many other benthic organisms, are affected by an increasing number of global change-related stressors including warming and invasive species. In this study, the cumulative effects between warming and invasive algae were experimentally assessed on the temperate reef-builder coral Cladocora caespitosa. We first investigated the potential local adaptation to thermal stress in two distant populations subjected to contrasting thermal and necrosis histories. No significant differences were found between populations. Colonies from both populations suffered no necrosis after long-term exposure to temperatures up to 29 °C. Second, we tested the effects of the interaction of both warming and the presence of invasive algae. The combined exposure triggered critical synergistic effects on photosynthetic efficiency and tissue necrosis. At the end of the experiment, over 90% of the colonies subjected to warming and invasive algae showed signs of necrosis. The results are of particular concern when considering the predicted increase of extreme climatic events and the spread of invasive species in the Mediterranean and other seas in the future.

Impact of climate warming-induced increase in drought stress on successional dynamic of a coniferous forest within a dry inner Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, R.; Zeisler, B.; Oberhuber, W.

2012-04-01

Climate sensitivity of tree growth will effect the development of forest ecosystems under a warmer and drier climate by changing species composition and inducing shifts in forest distribution. We applied dendroclimatological techniques to determine impact of climate warming on radial stem growth of three native and widespread coniferous tree species of the central Austrian Alps (Norway spruce, Picea abies; European larch, Larix decidua; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris), which grow intermixed at dry-mesic sites within a dry inner Alpine environment (750 m a.s.l., Tyrol, Austria). Time series of annual increments were developed from > 250 saplings and mature trees. Radial growth response to recent climate warming was explored by means of moving response functions (MRF) and evaluation of trends in basal area increment (BAI) for the period 1911 - 2009. Climate-growth relationships revealed significant differences among species in response to water availability. While precipitation in May - June favoured radial growth of spruce and larch, Scots pine growth mainly depended on April - May precipitation. Spruce growth was most sensitive to May - June temperature (inverse relationship). Although MRF coefficients indicated increasing drought sensitivity of all species, which is most likely related to intensified belowground competition for scarce water with increasing stand density and higher evapotranspiration rates due to climate warming, recent BAI trends strikingly differed among species. While BAI of larch was distinctly declining, spruce showed steadily increasing BAI and quite constant BAI was maintained in drought adapted Scots pine, although at lowest level of all species. Furthermore, more favourable growing conditions of spruce in recent decades are indicated by scattered natural regeneration and higher growth rates of younger trees during first decades of their lifespan. Because human interference and wildlife stock is negligible within the study area, results suggest a competitive advantage of shade-tolerant and shallow-rooted late successional spruce over early successional species, whereby the spruce`s competitive strength is most likely related to synergistic effects of shade-tolerance and efficient uptake of small rainfall events by fine roots distributed primarily in upper soil layers. On the other hand, strikingly decreasing trend in BAI of larch is suggested to be due to negative influence of climate warming on tree water status. We conclude that climate warming-induced increase in drought sensitivity changed competitive strength of co-occurring conifers due to differences in inherent adaptive capacity at a drought-prone inner Alpine site.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

A Rising Tide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nation, Molly Trendell; Feldman, Allan; Wang, Ping

2015-01-01

Global climate change and its effects are real and immediate. Students must gain an understanding of climate science so they can participate in public debate about how to reduce the emission of heat-trapping gases and how their communities can mitigate the effects of global warming. In this activity, students model these effects on Earth's oceans…

Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2009-04-01

While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in relative AAM is observed with major contributions in the upper troposphere where increased jet streams cause large AAM anomalies. Due to increasing westerly winds, an eastward shift can be observed during strong El Niño events for the Pacific and North America centers of the PNA while its southeast center is less pronounced and shifts to the West. As a result, the PNA region during strong 21th century El Niño events is closely located to the PNA region of mean atmospheric conditions of present time. Further analyses on the climate warming scenario (A1B) determined a total of 28 strong El Niño events suggesting a steady increase in ENSO events, magnitude and duration during the last decades of the 21st century. Rising Niño 3.4 SSTs exceed global increases by 15%. Correspondingly to present times, the AAM-SST relation also indicates a range of explained variances from 8% to 82%. Ongoing analyses on 21st century climate warming relate zonal wind anomalies in the upper troposphere to SST patterns of individual strong El Niños to estimate a possible effect of the relative AAM on length-of-day variations.

Global warming and neurodegenerative disorders: speculations on their linkage.

PubMed

Habibi, Laleh; Perry, George; Mahmoudi, Morteza

2014-01-01

Climate change is having considerable impact on biological systems. Eras of ice ages and warming shaped the contemporary earth and origin of creatures including humans. Warming forces stress conditions on cells. Therefore, cells evolved elaborate defense mechanisms, such as creation of heat shock proteins, to combat heat stress. Global warming is becoming a crisis and this process would yield an undefined increasing rate of neurodegenerative disorders in future decades. Since heat stress is known to have a degenerative effects on neurons and, conversely, cold conditions have protective effect on these cells, we hypothesize that persistent heat stress forced by global warming might play a crucial role in increasing neurodegenerative disorders.

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputsmore » and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).« less

Climatic controls of aboveground net primary production in semi-arid grasslands along a latitudinal gradient portend low sensitivity to warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mowll, Whitney; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Cherwin, Karie; Smith, Anine; Symstad, Amy J.; Vermeire, Lance; Collins, Scott L.; Smith, Melinda D.; Knapp, Alan K.

2015-01-01

Although climate models forecast warmer temperatures with a high degree of certainty, precipitation is the primary driver of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in most grasslands. Conversely, variations in temperature seldom are related to patterns of ANPP. Thus forecasting responses to warming is a challenge, and raises the question: how sensitive will grassland ANPP be to warming? We evaluated climate and multi-year ANPP data (67 years) from eight western US grasslands arrayed along mean annual temperature (MAT; ~7-14 °C) and mean annual precipitation (MAP; ~250-500 mm) gradients. Weused regression and analysis of covariance to assess relationships between ANPP and temperature, as well as precipitation (annual and growing season) to evaluate temperature sensitivity of ANPP. We also related ANPP to the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), which combines precipitation and evapotranspiration to better represent moisture available for plant growth. Regression models indicated that variation in growing season temperature was negatively related to total and graminoid ANPP, but precipitation was a stronger predictor than temperature. Growing season temperature was also a significant parameter in more complex models, but again precipitation was consistently a stronger predictor of ANPP. Surprisingly, neither annual nor growing season SPEI were as strongly related to ANPP as precipitation. We conclude that forecasted warming likely will affect ANPP in these grasslands, but that predicting temperature effects from natural climatic gradients is difficult. This is because, unlike precipitation, warming effects can be positive or negative and moderated by shifts in the C3/C4 ratios of plant communities.

High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows – exploring the effects of forcing biases

DOE PAGES

Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; ...

2016-05-10

Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputsmore » and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. Moreover, it is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).« less

Non-additive effects of ocean acidification in combination with warming on the larval proteome of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas.

PubMed

Harney, Ewan; Artigaud, Sébastien; Le Souchu, Pierrick; Miner, Philippe; Corporeau, Charlotte; Essid, Hafida; Pichereau, Vianney; Nunes, Flavia L D

2016-03-01

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide results in ocean acidification and warming, significantly impacting marine invertebrate larvae development. We investigated how ocean acidification in combination with warming affected D-veliger larvae of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas. Larvae were reared for 40h under either control (pH8.1, 20 °C), acidified (pH7.9, 20 °C), warm (pH8.1, 22 °C) or warm acidified (pH7.9, 22 °C) conditions. Larvae in acidified conditions were significantly smaller than in the control, but warm acidified conditions mitigated negative effects on size, and increased calcification. A proteomic approach employing two-dimensional electrophoresis (2-DE) was used to quantify proteins and relate their abundance to phenotypic traits. In total 12 differentially abundant spots were identified by nano-liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. These proteins had roles in metabolism, intra- and extra-cellular matrix formations, stress response, and as molecular chaperones. Seven spots responded to reduced pH, four to increased temperature, and six to acidification and warming. Reduced abundance of proteins such as ATP synthase and GAPDH, and increased abundance of superoxide dismutase, occurred when both pH and temperature changes were imposed, suggesting altered metabolism and enhanced oxidative stress. These results identify key proteins that may be involved in the acclimation of C. gigas larvae to ocean acidification and warming. Increasing atmospheric CO2 raises sea surface temperatures and results in ocean acidification, two climatic variables known to impact marine organisms. Larvae of calcifying species may be particularly at risk to such changing environmental conditions. The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas is ecologically and commercially important, and understanding its ability to acclimate to climate change will help to predict how aquaculture of this species is likely to be impacted. Modest, yet realistic changes in pH and/or temperature may be more informative of how populations will respond to contemporary climate change. We showed that concurrent acidification and warming mitigates the negative effects of pH alone on size of larvae, but proteomic analysis reveals altered patterns of metabolism and an increase in oxidative stress suggesting non-additive effects of the interaction between pH and temperature on protein abundance. Thus, even small changes in climate may influence development, with potential consequences later in life. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volatile organic compound emissions from arctic vegetation highly responsive to experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinnan, Riikka; Kramshøj, Magnus; Lindwall, Frida; Schollert, Michelle; Svendsen, Sarah H.; Valolahti, Hanna

2017-04-01

Arctic areas are experiencing amplified climate warming that proceeds twice as fast as the global temperature increase. The increasing temperature is already causing evident alterations, e.g. changes in the vegetation cover as well as thawing of permafrost. Climate warming and the concomitant biotic and abiotic changes are likely to have strong direct and indirect effects on emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from arctic vegetation. We used long-term field manipulation experiments in the Subarctic, Low Arctic and High Arctic to assess effects of climate change on VOC emissions from vegetation communities. In these experiments, we applied passive warming with open-top chambers alone and in combination with other experimental treatments in well-replicated experimental designs. Volatile emissions were sampled in situ by drawing air from plant enclosures and custom-built chambers into adsorbent cartridges, which were analyzed by thermal desorption and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in laboratory. Emission increases by a factor of 2-5 were observed under experimental warming by only a few degrees, and the strong response seems universal for dry, mesic and wet ecosystems. In some cases, these vegetation community level responses were partly due to warming-induced increases in the VOC-emitting plant biomass, changes in species composition and the following increase in the amount of leaf litter (Valolahti et al. 2015). In other cases, the responses appeared before any vegetation changes took place (Lindwall et al. 2016) or even despite a decrease in plant biomass (Kramshøj et al. 2016). VOC emissions from arctic ecosystems seem more responsive to experimental warming than other ecosystem processes. We can thus expect large increases in future VOC emissions from this area due to the direct effects of temperature increase, and due to increasing plant biomass and a longer growing season. References Kramshøj M., Vedel-Petersen I., Schollert M., Rinnan Å., Nymand J., Ro-Poulsen H., Rinnan R. (2016) Large increases in arctic biogenic volatile emissions are a direct effect of warming. Nature Geoscience 9: 349-352. Lindwall F., Schollert M., Michelsen A., Blok D., Rinnan R. (2016) Fourfold higher tundra volatile emissions due to arctic summer warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 121: 895-902, doi: 10.1002/2015JG003295. Valolahti H., Kivimäenpää M., Faubert P., Michelsen A., Rinnan R. (2015) Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions. Global Change Biology 21: 3478-3488.

A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

2017-07-01

Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

Missing iris effect as a possible cause of muted hydrological change and high climate sensitivity in models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauritsen, T.; Stevens, B. B.

2015-12-01

Current climate models exhibit equilibrium climate sensitivities to a doubling of CO2 of 2.0-4.6 K and a weak increase of global mean precipitation. But inferences from the observational record place climate sensitivity near the lower end of the range, and indicate that models underestimate changes in certain aspects of the hydrological cycle under warming. Here we show that both these discrepancies can be explained by a controversial hypothesis of missing negative tropical feedbacks in climate models, known as the iris-effect: Expanding dry and clear regions in a warming climate yield a negative feedback as more infrared radiation can escape to space through this metaphorical opening iris. At the same time the additional infrared cooling of the atmosphere must be balanced by latent heat release thereby accelerating the hydrological cycle. Alternative suggestions of too little aerosol cooling, missing volcanic eruptions, or insufficient ocean heat uptake in models may explain a slow observed transient warming, but are not able to explain the observed enhanced hydrological cycle. We propose that a temperature-dependency of the extent to which precipitating convective clouds cluster or aggregate into larger clouds constitutes a plausible physical mechanism for the iris-effect. On a large scale, organized convective states are dryer than disorganized convection and therefore radiate more in the longwave to space. Thus, if a warmer atmosphere can host more organized convection, then this represents one possible mechanism for an iris-effect. The challenges in modeling, understanding and possibly quantifying a temperature-dependency of convection are, however, substantial.

Nighttime warming enhances drought resistance of plant communities in a temperate steppe

PubMed Central

Yang, Zhongling; Jiang, Lin; Su, Fanglong; Zhang, Qian; Xia, Jianyang; Wan, Shiqiang

2016-01-01

Drought events could have profound influence on plant community structure and ecosystem function, and have subsequent impacts on community stability, but we know little about how different climate warming scenarios affect community resistance and resilience to drought. Combining a daytime and nighttime warming experiment in the temperate steppe of north China with a natural drought event during the study period, we tested how daytime and nighttime warming influences drought resistance and resilience. Our results showed that the semi-arid steppe in north China was resistant to both daytime and nighttime warming, but vulnerable to drought. Nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, enhanced community resistance to drought via stimulating carbon sequestration, whereas neither daytime nor nighttime warming affected community resilience to drought. Large decline in plant community cover, primarily caused by the reduction in the cover of dominant and rare species rather than subordinate species during drought, did not preclude rapid ecosystem recovery. These findings suggest that nighttime warming may facilitate ecosystem sustainability and highlight the need to assess the effects of climate extremes on ecosystem functions at finer temporal resolutions than based on diurnal mean temperature. PMID:26987482

NorTropical Warm Pool variability and its effects on the climate of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ricaurte Villota, Constanza; Romero-Rodriguez, Deisy; Coca-Domínguez, Oswaldo

2015-04-01

Much has been said about the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on oceanographic and climatic conditions in Colombia, but little is known about the influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP), which includes the gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean and the western tropical North Atlantic. The AWP has been identified by some authors as an area that influences the Earth's climate, associated with anomalous summer rainfall and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. The aim of this study was to understand the variation in the AWP and its effects on the climate of Colombia. An annual average of sea surface temperature (SST) was obtained from the composition of monthly images of the Spectroradiometer Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with resolution of 4 km, for one area that comprises the marine territory of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica both the Pacific and the Caribbean, and parts of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, for the period between 2007 and 2013. The results suggest that warm pool is not restricted to the Caribbean, but it also covers a strip Pacific bordering Central America and the northern part of the Colombian coast, so it should be called the Nor-Tropical Warm pool (NTWP). Within the NTWP higher SST correspond to a marine area extending about 1 degree north and south of Central and out of the Colombian Caribbean coast. The NTWP also showed large interannual variability, with the years 2008 and 2009 with lower SST in average, while 2010, 2011 and 2013 years with warmer conditions, matching with greater precipitation. It was also noted that during warmer conditions (high amplitude NTWP) the cold tongue from the south Pacific has less penetration on Colombian coast. Finally, the results suggest a strong influence of NTWP in climatic conditions in Colombia.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation.

PubMed

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Velders, Guus J M; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2014-11-18

Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2-SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2-SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2-SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.

Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

PubMed Central

Rogelj, Joeri; Schaeffer, Michiel; Meinshausen, Malte; Shindell, Drew T.; Hare, William; Klimont, Zbigniew; Amann, Markus; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

2014-01-01

Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2–SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2–SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 °C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 °C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2–SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change. PMID:25368182

CO2 condensation and the climate of early Mars.

PubMed

Kasting, J F

1991-01-01

A one-dimensional, radiative-convective climate model was used to reexamine the question of whether early Mars could have been kept warm by the greenhouse effect of a dense, CO2 atmosphere. The new model differs from previous models by considering the influence of CO2 clouds on the convective lapse rate and on the the planetary radiation budget. Condensation of CO2 decreases the lapse rate and, hence, reduces the magnitude of the greenhouse effect. This phenomenon becomes increasingly important at low solar luminosities and may preclude warm (0 degree C), globally averaged surface temperatures prior to approximately 2 billion years ago unless other greenhouse gases were present in addition to CO2 and H2O. Alternative mechanisms for warming early Mars and explaining channel formation are discussed.

Is Global Warming likely to cause an increased incidence of Malaria?

PubMed Central

Nabi, SA; Qader, SS

2009-01-01

The rise in the average temperature of earth has been described as global warming which is mainly attributed to the increasing phenomenon of the greenhouse effect. It is believed that global warming can have several harmful effects on human health, both directly and indirectly. Since malaria is greatly influenced by climatic conditions because of its direct relationship with the mosquito population, it is widely assumed that its incidence is likely to increase in a future warmer world. This review article discusses the two contradictory views regarding the association of global warming with an increased incidence of malaria. On one hand, there are many who believe that there is a strong association between the recent increase in malaria incidence and global warming. They predict that as global warming continues, malaria is set to spread in locations where previously it was limited, due to cooler climate. On the other hand, several theories have been put forward which are quite contrary to this prediction. There are multiple other factors which are accountable for the recent upsurge of malaria: for example drug resistance, mosquito control programs, public health facilities, and living standards. PMID:21483497

Observational Evidence for Desert Amplification Using Multiple Satellite Datasets.

PubMed

Wei, Nan; Zhou, Liming; Dai, Yongjiu; Xia, Geng; Hua, Wenjian

2017-05-17

Desert amplification identified in recent studies has large uncertainties due to data paucity over remote deserts. Here we present observational evidence using multiple satellite-derived datasets that desert amplification is a real large-scale pattern of warming mode in near surface and low-tropospheric temperatures. Trend analyses of three long-term temperature products consistently confirm that near-surface warming is generally strongest over the driest climate regions and this spatial pattern of warming maximizes near the surface, gradually decays with height, and disappears in the upper troposphere. Short-term anomaly analyses show a strong spatial and temporal coupling of changes in temperatures, water vapor and downward longwave radiation (DLR), indicating that the large increase in DLR drives primarily near surface warming and is tightly associated with increasing water vapor over deserts. Atmospheric soundings of temperature and water vapor anomalies support the results of the long-term temperature trend analysis and suggest that desert amplification is due to comparable warming and moistening effects of the troposphere. Likely, desert amplification results from the strongest water vapor feedbacks near the surface over the driest deserts, where the air is very sensitive to changes in water vapor and thus efficient in enhancing the longwave greenhouse effect in a warming climate.

Late Noachian Climate Of Mars: Constraints From Valley Network System Formation Times And The Intermittencies (Episodic/Periodic And Punctuated).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James

2017-04-01

Formation of Late Noachian-Early Hesperian (LN-EH) valley network systems (VNS) signaled the presence of warm/wet conditions generating several hypotheses for climates permissive of these conditions. To constrain options for the ambient Noachian climate, we examine estimates for time required to carve channels/deltas and total duration implied by plausible intermittencies. Formation Times for VN, OBL, Deltas, Fans: A synthesis of required timescales show that even with the longest estimated continuous duration of VN formation/intermittencies, total time to carve the VN does not exceed 106 years, <˜0.25% of the total Noachian. Intermittency/episodicity assumptions are climate-model dependent (e.g., most workers use Earth-like fluvial activity and intermittency). Noachian-Early Hesperian Climate Models: 1) Warm and wet/semiarid/arid climate: Sustained background MAT >273 K, hydrological system vertically integrated, and rainfall occurs to recharge the aquifer. Two subtypes: a) "Rainfall/Fluvial Erosion-Dominated Warm and Wet Model": "Rainfall and surface runoff" persist throughout Noachian to explain crater degradation, and a LN-EH short rapidly ending terminal epoch. b) "Recharge Evaporation/Evaporite Dominated Warm and Wet Model": Sustained period of equatorial/mid-latitude precipitation and a vertically integrated hydrological system driven by evaporative upwelling and fluctuating shallow water table playa environments account for sulfate evaporate environments at Meridiani Planum. Sustained temperatures >273 K are required for extended periods (107-108 years). 2) Cold and icy climate: Sustained background temperatures extremely low (MAT ˜225 K), cryosphere is globally continuous, hydrological system is horizontally stratified, separating groundwater system from surface; no combination of spin-axis/orbital perturbations can raise MAT to 273 K. Adiabatic cooling effects transfer water to high altitudes, leading to "Late Noachian Icy Highlands Model". VNS cannot form in this nominal climate environment without special circumstances (e.g., impacts or volcanic eruptions elevate of temperatures by >˜50 K to induce melting and fluvial/lacustrine activity). 3) Cold and Icy climate warmed by greenhouse gases: The climate is sustained cold/icy model, but greenhouse gases of unspecified nature/amount/duration elevate MAT by several tens of Kelvins (say 25 K, to MAT 250 K), bringing annual temperature range into the realm where peak seasonal temperatures (PST) exceed 273 K. In this climate environment, analogous to the Antarctic Dry Valleys, seasonal summer temperatures above 273 K are sufficient to melt snow/ice and form fluvial and lacustrine features, but MAT is well below 273 K (253 K). Fluvial systems driven by episodic/periodic intermittency typically involve short intermittency time-scales (10-106 years) but require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) to be sustained for >0.4 x 109 years. Fluvial systems driven by punctuated intermittency typically involve short duration time-scales (10-105 years) but only require a warm climate (MAT >273 K) for the very short duration of the climatic impact of the punctuated event (102-105 years). We conclude that a cold and icy background climate with punctuated intermittency of warming and melting events is consistent with: 1) the estimated durations of continuous VN formation (<105 years) and 2) VN system estimated recurrence rates (106-107 years).

Circumpolar dynamics of a marine top-predator track ocean warming rates.

PubMed

Descamps, Sébastien; Anker-Nilssen, Tycho; Barrett, Robert T; Irons, David B; Merkel, Flemming; Robertson, Gregory J; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Mallory, Mark L; Montevecchi, William A; Boertmann, David; Artukhin, Yuri; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Signe; Erikstad, Kjell-Einar; Gilchrist, H Grant; Labansen, Aili L; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon; Mosbech, Anders; Olsen, Bergur; Petersen, Aevar; Rail, Jean-Francois; Renner, Heather M; Strøm, Hallvard; Systad, Geir H; Wilhelm, Sabina I; Zelenskaya, Larisa

2017-09-01

Global warming is a nonlinear process, and temperature may increase in a stepwise manner. Periods of abrupt warming can trigger persistent changes in the state of ecosystems, also called regime shifts. The responses of organisms to abrupt warming and associated regime shifts can be unlike responses to periods of slow or moderate change. Understanding of nonlinearity in the biological responses to climate warming is needed to assess the consequences of ongoing climate change. Here, we demonstrate that the population dynamics of a long-lived, wide-ranging marine predator are associated with changes in the rate of ocean warming. Data from 556 colonies of black-legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla distributed throughout its breeding range revealed that an abrupt warming of sea-surface temperature in the 1990s coincided with steep kittiwake population decline. Periods of moderate warming in sea temperatures did not seem to affect kittiwake dynamics. The rapid warming observed in the 1990s may have driven large-scale, circumpolar marine ecosystem shifts that strongly affected kittiwakes through bottom-up effects. Our study sheds light on the nonlinear response of a circumpolar seabird to large-scale changes in oceanographic conditions and indicates that marine top predators may be more sensitive to the rate of ocean warming rather than to warming itself. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Research Spotlight: Corals expanding poleward due to warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-04-01

Corals are important organisms for ecosystems and are sensitive indicators of the effects of climate warming. While corals are bleaching and dying in tropical areas due to climate warming, a new study shows that in temperate areas they are expanding their range poleward as water temperatures increase. Yamano et al. used 80 years of records to study the range of corals around Japan. Sea surface temperatures have risen in these temperate areas during that time. They found that four of the nine species of coral they studied expanded their range northward since the 1930s, while none had its range shrink southward. The corals expanded northward as quickly as 14 kilometers per year. The study suggests that rapid modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be taking place. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474, 2011)

[Responses of plant community structure and species composition to warming and N addition in an alpine meadow, northern Tibetan Plateau, China].

PubMed

Zong, Ning; Chai, Xi; Shi, Pei Li; Jiang, Jing; Niu, Ben; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao

2016-12-01

Global climate warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition, as controversial global environmental issues, may distinctly affect the functions and processes of terrestrial ecosystems. It has been reported that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been experiencing significant warming in recent decades, especially in winter. Previous studies have mainly focused on the effects of warming all the year round; however, few studies have tested the effects of winter warming. To investigate the effects of winter warming and N addition on plant community structure and species composition of alpine meadow, long-term N addition and simulated warming experiment was conducted in alpine meadow from 2010 in Damxung, northern Tibet. The experiment consisted of three warming patterns: Year-round warming (YW), winter warming (WW) and control (NW), crossed respectively with five N gradients: 0, 10, 20, 40, 80 kg N·hm -2 ·a -1 . From 2012 to 2014, both warming and N addition significantly affected the total coverage of plant community. Specifically, YW significantly decreased the total coverage of plant community. Without N addition, WW remarkably reduced the vegetation coverage. However, with N addition, the total vegetation coverage gradually increased with the increase of N level. Warming and N addition had different effects on plants from different functional groups. Warming significantly reduced the plant coverage of grasses and sedges, while N addition significantly enhanced the plant coverage of grasses. Regression analyses showed that the total coverage of plant community was positively related to soil water content in vigorous growth stages, indicating that the decrease in soil water content resulted from warming during dry seasons might be the main reason for the decline of total community coverage. As soil moisture in semi-arid alpine meadow is mainly regulated by rainfalls, our results indicated that changes in spatial and temporal patterns of rainfalls under the future climate change scenarios would dramatically influence the vegetation coverage and species composition. Additionally, the effects of increasing atmospheric N deposition on vegetation community might also depend on the change of rainfall patterns.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

Effects of simultaneous climate change and geomorphic evolution on thermal characteristics of a shallow Alaskan lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffiths, Jennifer R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; Ruggerone, Gregory T.

2011-01-01

We used a hydrodynamics model to assess the consequences of climate warming and contemporary geomorphic evolution for thermal conditions in a large, shallow Alaskan lake. We evaluated the effects of both known climate and landscape change, including rapid outlet erosion and migration of the principal inlet stream, over the past 50 yr as well as future scenarios of geomorphic restoration. Compared to effects of air temperature during the past 50 yr, lake thermal properties showed little sensitivity to substantial (~60%) loss of lake volume, as the lake maximum depth declined from 6 m to 4 m driven by outlet erosion. The direction and magnitude of future lake thermal responses will be driven largely by the extent of inlet stream migration when it occurs simultaneously with outlet erosion. Maintaining connectivity with inlet streams had substantial effects on buffering lake thermal responses to warming climate. Failing to account for changing rates and types of geomorphic processes under continuing climate change may misidentify the primary drivers of lake thermal responses and reduce our ability to understand the consequences for aquatic organisms.

Effects of urbanization on climate of İstanbul and Ankara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaca, Mehmet; Tayanç, Mete; Toros, Hüseyi˙n.

The purpose of this work is to study regional climate change and investigate the effects of urbanization on climates of two largest cities in Turkey: İstanbul and Ankara. Air temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) data of İstanbul and Ankara are analyzed to study regional climate change and to understand the possible effects of urbanization on the climate of these regions owing to industrialization and large flux of migration from rural parts of the country. For the trend analysis, linear regression and the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test is used. A significant upward trend is found in the urban temperatures of southern İstanbul, which is the most highly populated and industrialized part of the city compared to its rural parts. Northern stations do not show any warming trend; instead, they have a cooling trend. Urbanization and industrialization in the southern part of İstanbul has a negative effect on regional cooling. In spite of Ankara's urban geometry and air pollution problem, the urban station in Ankara does not show any warming trend. A significant urban heat island intensity ( urban-rural) is not observed in Ankara.

Warming will alter water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maggs, William Ward

Drastic changes in water resources in all regions of the United States will be the most severe effect of global warming, according to a study reported January 16 at the meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Francisco. However, said the scientists on the AAAS panel on climate and U.S. water resources, strong governmental involvement can greatly reduce the water supply problems climate change will bring.The natural variability of present and future climate was the starting point for the AAAS study. The panel pointed out that it is difficult to identify the direction of potential change for many of the possible consequences of the greenhouse effect, partly because recent history provides little evidence of strong responses to such changes.

Warming and Nitrogen Addition Increase Litter Decomposition in a Temperate Meadow Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Gong, Shiwei; Guo, Rui; Zhang, Tao; Guo, Jixun

2015-01-01

Background Litter decomposition greatly influences soil structure, nutrient content and carbon sequestration, but how litter decomposition is affected by climate change is still not well understood. Methodology/Principal Findings A field experiment with increased temperature and nitrogen (N) addition was established in April 2007 to examine the effects of experimental warming, N addition and their interaction on litter decomposition in a temperate meadow steppe in northeastern China. Warming, N addition and warming plus N addition reduced the residual mass of L. chinensis litter by 3.78%, 7.51% and 4.53%, respectively, in 2008 and 2009, and by 4.73%, 24.08% and 16.1%, respectively, in 2010. Warming, N addition and warming plus N addition had no effect on the decomposition of P. communis litter in 2008 or 2009, but reduced the residual litter mass by 5.58%, 15.53% and 5.17%, respectively, in 2010. Warming and N addition reduced the cellulose percentage of L. chinensis and P. communis, specifically in 2010. The lignin percentage of L. chinensis and P. communis was reduced by warming but increased by N addition. The C, N and P contents of L. chinensis and P. communis litter increased with time. Warming and N addition reduced the C content and C:N ratios of L. chinensisand P. communis litter, but increased the N and P contents. Significant interactive effects of warming and N addition on litter decomposition were observed (P<0.01). Conclusion/Significance The litter decomposition rate was highly correlated with soil temperature, soil water content and litter quality. Warming and N addition significantly impacted the litter decomposition rate in the Songnen meadow ecosystem, and the effects of warming and N addition on litter decomposition were also influenced by the quality of litter. These results highlight how climate change could alter grassland ecosystem carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus contents in soil by influencing litter decomposition. PMID:25774776

The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Arora, Vivek K.; Lee, Warren G.; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2018-03-01

Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 °C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical.

A reversal of fortunes: climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in Antarctic Peninsula penguins

PubMed Central

Clucas, Gemma V.; Dunn, Michael J.; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D.; Levy, Hila; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Rogers, Alex D.; Hart, Tom

2014-01-01

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’. PMID:24865774

A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins.

PubMed

Clucas, Gemma V; Dunn, Michael J; Dyke, Gareth; Emslie, Steven D; Naveen, Ron; Polito, Michael J; Pybus, Oliver G; Rogers, Alex D; Hart, Tom

2014-06-12

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces 'winners', species that benefit from these events and 'losers', species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a 'reversal of fortunes' as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change 'winners', while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change 'losers'.

Future local climate unlike currently observed anywhere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahinden, Fabienne; Fischer, Erich M.; Knutti, Reto

2017-08-01

The concept of spatial climate analogs, that is identifying a place with a present-day climate similar to the projections of a place of interest, is a promising method for visualizing and communicating possible effects of climate change. We show that when accounting for seasonal cycles of both temperature and precipitation, it is impossible to find good analogs for projections at many places across the world. For substantial land fractions, primarily in the tropics and subtropics, there are no analogs anywhere with current seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation matching their projected future conditions. This implies that these places experience the emergence of novel climates. For 1.5 °C global warming about 15% and for 2 °C warming about 21% of the global land is projected to experience novel climates, whereas for a 4 °C warming the corresponding novel climates may emerge on more than a third of the global land fraction. Similar fractions of today’s climates, mainly found in the tropics, subtropics and polar north, are anticipated to disappear in the future. Note that the exact quantification of the land fraction is sensitive to the threshold selection. Novel and disappearing climates may have serious consequences for impacts that are sensitive to the full seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation. For individual seasons, however, spatial analogs may still be a powerful tool for climate change communication.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation.

PubMed

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L; Harte, John

2018-02-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant ( Androsace septentrionalis ). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues.

Climate warming drives local extinction: Evidence from observation and experimentation

PubMed Central

Panetta, Anne Marie; Stanton, Maureen L.; Harte, John

2018-01-01

Despite increasing concern about elevated extinction risk as global temperatures rise, it is difficult to confirm causal links between climate change and extinction. By coupling 25 years of in situ climate manipulation with experimental seed introductions and both historical and current plant surveys, we identify causal, mechanistic links between climate change and the local extinction of a widespread mountain plant (Androsace septentrionalis). Climate warming causes precipitous declines in population size by reducing fecundity and survival across multiple life stages. Climate warming also purges belowground seed banks, limiting the potential for the future recovery of at-risk populations under ameliorated conditions. Bolstered by previous reports of plant community shifts in this experiment and in other habitats, our findings not only support the hypothesis that climate change can drive local extinction but also foreshadow potentially widespread species losses in subalpine meadows as climate warming continues. PMID:29507884

Regulating emission of air pollutants for near-term relief from global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Xu, Y.

2011-12-01

The manmade greenhouse gases that are now blanketing the planet is thick enough to warm the system beyond the 20C threshold. Even with a targeted reduction in CO2 emission of 50% by 2050, we will still be adding more than 50 ppm of CO2 and add another 10C to the warming. Fortunately, there are still ways to contain the warming by reducing non-CO2 climate warmers (methane, lower atmosphere ozone, black carbon and HFCs), using available and field tested technologies. The major advantage of going for these 'low-hanging fruits' is that this approach will clean up the air and improve health and food security of south and east Asia, thus engaging developing nations more effectively in climate negotiations. These non-CO2 mitigation actions will have significant (beneficial) impacts on the chemistry, clouds and precipitation of the atmosphere and these have to be quantified adequately. For example, reducing black and organic carbon emissions (through cleaner cooking technologies in developing countries) will also lead to significant reductions in carbon monoxide, which is an ozone precursor. The institutional infrastructure for reducing non-CO2 climate warmers already exist and have a proven track record for successful climate mitigation.

Atlantic-induced pan-tropical climate change over the past three decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xichen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Gille, Sarah T.; Yoo, Changhyun

2016-03-01

During the past three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) has shown dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-western Pacific but cooling over the eastern Pacific. Competing hypotheses relate this cooling, identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus, to the warming trends in either the Atlantic or Indian Ocean. However, the mechanisms, the relative importance and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. Using a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnection, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute ~55-75% of the tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. The Atlantic warming drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-western Pacific as Kelvin waves and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves. The wind changes induce an Indo-western Pacific warming through the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the tropical Pacific by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean dynamical processes. The teleconnection develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern. This mechanism, supported by observations and a hierarchy of climate models, reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought.

Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also generally well simulated, mostly limited by the accuracy of inflow hydrology. System-wide hydropower generation is reduced by 9% with 6 °C warming. Most reductions in hydropower generation occur in the highly productive watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada. The central Sierra Nevada sees less reduction in annual runoff and can adapt better to changes in runoff timing. Generation in southern watersheds is expected to decrease. System-wide, reservoirs adapt to capture earlier runoff, but mostly decrease in mean reservoir storage with warming due to decreasing annual runoff. Second, a multi-reservoir optimization model is developed using linear programming that considers the minimum instream flows (MIFs) and weekly down ramp rates (DRRs) in the Upper Yuba River in the northern Sierra Nevada. Weekly DRR constraints are used to mimic spring snowmelt flows, which are particularly important for downstream ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada but are currently missing due to the influence of dams. Trade-offs between MIFs, DRRs and hydropower are explored with air temperature warming (+0, 2, 4 and 6 °C). Under base case operations, mean annual hydropower generation increases slightly with 2 °C warming and decreases slightly with 6 °C warming. With 6 °C warming, the most ecologically beneficial MIF and DRR reduce hydropower generation 5.5% compared to base case operations and a historical climate, which has important implications for re-licensing the hydropower project. Finally, reservoir management for downstream temperatures is explored using a linear programming model to optimally release water from a reservoir using selective withdrawal. The objective function is to minimize deviations from desired downstream temperatures, which are specified to mimic the natural temperature regime in the river. One objective of this study was to develop a method that can be readily integrated into a basin-scale multi-reservoir optimization model using a network representation of system features. The second objective was to explore the potential use of reservoirs to maintain an ideal stream temperature regime to ameliorate the temperature effects of climate warming of air temperature. For proof-of-concept, the model is applied to Lake Spaulding in the Upper Yuba River. With selective withdrawal, the model hedges the release of cold water to decrease summer stream temperatures, but at a cost of warmer stream temperatures in the winter. Results also show that selective withdrawal can reduce, but not eliminate, the temperature effects of climate warming. The model can be extended to include other nearby reservoirs to optimally manage releases from multiple reservoirs for multiple downstream temperature targets in a highly interconnected system. While the outcomes of these studies contribute to our understanding of reservoir management and hydropower at the intersection of energy, water management, ecosystems, and climate warming, there are many opportunities to improve this work. Promising options for improving and building on the collective utility of these studies are presented.

Effects of warming on N2O fluxes in a boreal peatland of Permafrost region, Northeast China.

PubMed

Cui, Qian; Song, Changchun; Wang, Xianwei; Shi, Fuxi; Yu, Xueyang; Tan, Wenwen

2018-03-01

Climate warming is expected to increasingly influence boreal peatlands and alter their greenhouse gases emissions. However, the effects of warming on N 2 O fluxes and the N 2 O budgets were ignored in boreal peatlands. Therefore, in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China, a simulated warming experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of warming on N 2 O fluxes in Betula. Fruticosa community (B. Fruticosa) and Ledum. palustre community (L. palustre) during the growing seasons from 2013 to 2015. Results showed that warming treatment increased air temperature at 1.5m aboveground and soil temperature at 5cm depth by 0.6°C and 2°C, respectively. The average seasonal N 2 O fluxes ranged from 6.62 to 9.34μgm -2 h -1 in the warming plot and ranged from 0.41 to 4.55μgm -2 h -1 in the control plots. Warming treatment increased N 2 O fluxes by 147% and transformed the boreal peatlands from a N 2 O sink to a source. The primary driving factors for N 2 O fluxes were soil temperature and active layer depth, whereas soil moisture showed a weak correlation with N 2 O fluxes. The results indicated that warming promoted N 2 O fluxes by increasing soil temperature and active layer depth in a boreal peatland of permafrost zone in Northeast China. Moreover, elevated N 2 O fluxes persisted in this region will potentially drive a noncarbon feedback to ongoing climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

Climate change and physical disturbance cause similar community shifts in biological soil crusts

DOE PAGES

Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

2015-09-14

In biological soil crusts (biocrusts)—communities of mosses, lichens, cyanobacteria, and heterotrophs living at the soil surface— fundamental components of drylands worldwide, and destruction of biocrusts dramatically alters biogeochemical processes, hydrology, surface energy balance, and vegetation cover are present.Though there has been long-standing concern over impacts of physical disturbances on biocrusts (e.g., trampling by livestock, damage from vehicles), there is increasing concern over the potential for climate change to alter biocrust community structure. Using long-term data from the Colorado Plateau, in this paper we examined the effects of 10 y of experimental warming and altered precipitation (in full-factorial design) on biocrustmore » communities and compared the effects of altered climate with those of long-term physical disturbance (>10 y of replicated human trampling). Surprisingly, altered climate and physical disturbance treatments had similar effects on biocrust community structure. Warming, altered precipitation frequency [an increase of small (1.2 mm) summer rainfall events], and physical disturbance from trampling all promoted early successional community states marked by dramatic declines in moss cover and increases in cyanobacteria cover, with more variable effects on lichens. Although the pace of community change varied significantly among treatments, these results suggest that multiple aspects of climate change will affect biocrusts to the same degree as physical disturbance. Finally, this is particularly disconcerting in the context of warming, as temperatures for drylands are projected to increase beyond those imposed as treatments in our study.« less

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems.

PubMed

Templer, Pamela H; Reinmann, Andrew B; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O; Juice, Stephanie M; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E; Harrison, Jamie L; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise.

Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE): A new method for simulating future climate in seasonally snow-covered ecosystems

PubMed Central

Templer, Pamela H.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Sanders-DeMott, Rebecca; Sorensen, Patrick O.; Juice, Stephanie M.; Bowles, Francis; Sofen, Laura E.; Harrison, Jamie L.; Halm, Ian; Rustad, Lindsey; Martin, Mary E.; Grant, Nicholas

2017-01-01

Climate models project an increase in mean annual air temperatures and a reduction in the depth and duration of winter snowpack for many mid and high latitude and high elevation seasonally snow-covered ecosystems over the next century. The combined effects of these changes in climate will lead to warmer soils in the growing season and increased frequency of soil freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs) in winter due to the loss of a continuous, insulating snowpack. Previous experiments have warmed soils or removed snow via shoveling or with shelters to mimic projected declines in the winter snowpack. To our knowledge, no experiment has examined the interactive effects of declining snowpack and increased frequency of soil FTCs, combined with soil warming in the snow-free season on terrestrial ecosystems. In addition, none have mimicked directly the projected increase in soil FTC frequency in tall statured forests that is expected as a result of a loss of insulating snow in winter. We established the Climate Change Across Seasons Experiment (CCASE) at Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in the White Mountains of New Hampshire in 2012 to assess the combined effects of these changes in climate on a variety of pedoclimate conditions, biogeochemical processes, and ecology of northern hardwood forests. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of creating soil FTC events in a tall statured ecosystem in winter to simulate the projected increase in soil FTC frequency over the next century and combines this projected change in winter climate with ecosystem warming throughout the snow-free season. Together, this experiment provides a new and more comprehensive approach for climate change experiments that can be adopted in other seasonally snow-covered ecosystems to simulate expected changes resulting from global air temperature rise. PMID:28207766

Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

PubMed

Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

2017-04-01

To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Half the story: Thermal effects on within-host infectious disease progression in a warming climate.

PubMed

Stewart, Alexander; Hablützel, Pascal I; Brown, Martha; Watson, Hayley V; Parker-Norman, Sophie; Tober, Anya V; Thomason, Anna G; Friberg, Ida M; Cable, Joanne; Jackson, Joseph A

2018-01-01

Immune defense is temperature dependent in cold-blooded vertebrates (CBVs) and thus directly impacted by global warming. We examined whether immunity and within-host infectious disease progression are altered in CBVs under realistic climate warming in a seasonal mid-latitude setting. Going further, we also examined how large thermal effects are in relation to the effects of other environmental variation in such a setting (critical to our ability to project infectious disease dynamics from thermal relationships alone). We employed the three-spined stickleback and three ecologically relevant parasite infections as a "wild" model. To generate a realistic climatic warming scenario we used naturalistic outdoors mesocosms with precise temperature control. We also conducted laboratory experiments to estimate thermal effects on immunity and within-host infectious disease progression under controlled conditions. As experimental readouts we measured disease progression for the parasites and expression in 14 immune-associated genes (providing insight into immunophenotypic responses). Our mesocosm experiment demonstrated significant perturbation due to modest warming (+2°C), altering the magnitude and phenology of disease. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated substantial thermal effects. Prevailing thermal effects were more important than lagged thermal effects and disease progression increased or decreased in severity with increasing temperature in an infection-specific way. Combining laboratory-determined thermal effects with our mesocosm data, we used inverse modeling to partition seasonal variation in Saprolegnia disease progression into a thermal effect and a latent immunocompetence effect (driven by nonthermal environmental variation and correlating with immune gene expression). The immunocompetence effect was large, accounting for at least as much variation in Saprolegnia disease as the thermal effect. This suggests that managers of CBV populations in variable environments may not be able to reliably project infectious disease risk from thermal data alone. Nevertheless, such projections would be improved by primarily considering prevailing thermal effects in the case of within-host disease and by incorporating validated measures of immunocompetence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Greenhouse warming and landscape care

Treesearch

Kevin T. Smith

2009-01-01

Climate change is one of the few truly planetary processes that influence the assessments and actions of governments and of everyday citizens. Principles and practices of ecological landscaping fit well with concern about hte effects of climate change.

Global air quality and climate.

PubMed

Fiore, Arlene M; Naik, Vaishali; Spracklen, Dominick V; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Prather, Michael; Bergmann, Dan; Cameron-Smith, Philip J; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J; Dalsøren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A; Ginoux, Paul; Horowitz, Larry W; Josse, Béatrice; Lamarque, Jean-François; MacKenzie, Ian A; Nagashima, Tatsuya; O'Connor, Fiona M; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T; Shindell, Drew T; Skeie, Ragnhild B; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang

2012-10-07

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH(4)), ozone precursors (O(3)), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O(3) precursor CH(4) would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH(4) and tropospheric O(3). Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NO(x)) emissions, which increase tropospheric O(3) (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH(4) (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH(4) volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O(3) and CH(4). Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O(3) and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O(3) and SOA.

Spectral Dependence of MODIS Cloud Droplet Effective Radius Retrievals for Marine Boundary Layer Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Zhibo; Platnick, Steven E.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Cho, Hyoun-Myoung

2014-01-01

Low-level warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds cover large regions of Earth's surface. They have a significant role in Earth's radiative energy balance and hydrological cycle. Despite the fundamental role of low-level warm water clouds in climate, our understanding of these clouds is still limited. In particular, connections between their properties (e.g. cloud fraction, cloud water path, and cloud droplet size) and environmental factors such as aerosol loading and meteorological conditions continue to be uncertain or unknown. Modeling these clouds in climate models remains a challenging problem. As a result, the influence of aerosols on these clouds in the past and future, and the potential impacts of these clouds on global warming remain open questions leading to substantial uncertainty in climate projections. To improve our understanding of these clouds, we need continuous observations of cloud properties on both a global scale and over a long enough timescale for climate studies. At present, satellite-based remote sensing is the only means of providing such observations.

Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States.

PubMed

van Mantgem, Phillip J; Nesmith, Jonathan C B; Keifer, MaryBeth; Knapp, Eric E; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorriane

2013-09-01

Pervasive warming can lead to chronic stress on forest trees, which may contribute to mortality resulting from fire-caused injuries. Longitudinal analyses of forest plots from across the western US show that high pre-fire climatic water deficit was related to increased post-fire tree mortality probabilities. This relationship between climate and fire was present after accounting for fire defences and injuries, and appeared to influence the effects of crown and stem injuries. Climate and fire interactions did not vary substantially across geographical regions, major genera and tree sizes. Our findings support recent physiological evidence showing that both drought and heating from fire can impair xylem conductivity. Warming trends have been linked to increasing probabilities of severe fire weather and fire spread; our results suggest that warming may also increase forest fire severity (the number of trees killed) independent of fire intensity (the amount of heat released during a fire). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Global climate changes, natural disasters, and travel health risks.

PubMed

Diaz, James H

2006-01-01

Whether the result of cyclical atmospheric changes, anthropogenic activities, or combinations of both, authorities now agree that the earth is warming from a variety of climatic effects, including the cascading effects of greenhouse gas emissions to support human activities. To date, most reports of the public health outcomes of global warming have been anecdotal and retrospective in design and have focused on heat stroke deaths following heat waves, drowning deaths in floods and tsunamis, and mosquito-borne infectious disease outbreaks following tropical storms and cyclones. Accurate predictions of the true public health outcomes of global climate change are confounded by several effect modifiers including human acclimatization and adaptation, the contributions of natural climatic changes, and many conflicting atmospheric models of climate change. Nevertheless, temporal relationships between environmental factors and human health outcomes have been identified and may be used as criteria to judge the causality of associations between the human health outcomes of climate changes and climate-driven natural disasters. Travel medicine physicians are obligated to educate their patients about the known public health outcomes of climate changes, about the disease and injury risk factors their patients may face from climate-spawned natural disasters, and about the best preventive measures to reduce infectious diseases and injuries following natural disasters throughout the world.

Impact of Future Climate on Radial Growth of Four Major Boreal Tree Species in the Eastern Canadian Boreal Forest

PubMed Central

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C.; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010–2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. PMID:23468879

Impact of future climate on radial growth of four major boreal tree species in the Eastern Canadian boreal forest.

PubMed

Huang, Jian-Guo; Bergeron, Yves; Berninger, Frank; Zhai, Lihong; Tardif, Jacques C; Denneler, Bernhard

2013-01-01

Immediate phenotypic variation and the lagged effect of evolutionary adaptation to climate change appear to be two key processes in tree responses to climate warming. This study examines these components in two types of growth models for predicting the 2010-2099 diameter growth change of four major boreal species Betula papyrifera, Pinus banksiana, Picea mariana, and Populus tremuloides along a broad latitudinal gradient in eastern Canada under future climate projections. Climate-growth response models for 34 stands over nine latitudes were calibrated and cross-validated. An adaptive response model (A-model), in which the climate-growth relationship varies over time, and a fixed response model (F-model), in which the relationship is constant over time, were constructed to predict future growth. For the former, we examined how future growth of stands in northern latitudes could be forecasted using growth-climate equations derived from stands currently growing in southern latitudes assuming that current climate in southern locations provide an analogue for future conditions in the north. For the latter, we tested if future growth of stands would be maximally predicted using the growth-climate equation obtained from the given local stand assuming a lagged response to climate due to genetic constraints. Both models predicted a large growth increase in northern stands due to more benign temperatures, whereas there was a minimal growth change in southern stands due to potentially warm-temperature induced drought-stress. The A-model demonstrates a changing environment whereas the F-model highlights a constant growth response to future warming. As time elapses we can predict a gradual transition between a response to climate associated with the current conditions (F-model) to a more adapted response to future climate (A-model). Our modeling approach provides a template to predict tree growth response to climate warming at mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.

The long view: Causes of climate change over the instrumental period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegerl, G. C.; Schurer, A. P.; Polson, D.; Iles, C. E.; Bronnimann, S.

2016-12-01

The period of instrumentally recorded data has seen remarkable changes in climate, with periods of rapid warming, and periods of stagnation or cooling. A recent analysis of the observed temperature change from the instrumental record confirms that most of the warming recorded since the middle of the 20rst century has been caused by human influences, but shows large uncertainty in separating greenhouse gas from aerosol response if accounting for model uncertainty. The contribution by natural forcing and internal variability to the recent warming is estimated to be small, but becomes more important when analysing climate change over earlier or shorter time periods. For example, the enigmatic early 20th century warming was a period of strong climate anomalies, including the US dustbowl drought and exceptional heat waves, and pronounced Arctic warming. Attribution results suggests that about half of the global warming 1901-1950 was forced by greenhouse gases increases, with an anomalously strong contribution by climate variability, and contributions by natural forcing. Long term variations in circulation are important for some regional climate anomalies. Precipitation is important for impacts of climate change and precipitation changes are uncertain in models. Analysis of the instrumental record suggests a human influence on mean and heavy precipitation, and supports climate model estimates of the spatial pattern of precipitation sensitivity to warming. Broadly, and particularly over ocean, wet regions are getting wetter and dry regions are getting drier. In conclusion, the historical record provides evidence for a strong response to external forcings, supports climate models, and raises questions about multi-decadal variability.

­Weather and climate change drivers of agricultural pesticide use in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larsen, A.; Deschenes, O.

2016-12-01

Agricultural pesticides have numerous negative consequences for human and environmental health due to direct exposure, and associated air pollution, water contamination and biodiversity losses. As such, understanding the abiotic and biotic drivers of pesticide variability is a scientific and policy priority. Temperature is a direct determinant of insect pest development rates, and as such, it is anticipated that insect pest damage and insecticide use will increase in a warmer climate. Yet, the complexity of plant-insect interactions, diversity of crop growing regions, and uncertainty of climate forecasts have hampered predictions regarding where and to what degree climate change may alter insecticide use. Here we use a county-level, panel data set including the USDA Census of Agriculture and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily (GHCN-Daily) for 1987-2012 to statistically evaluate how a rich set of weather variables (e.g. degree days, frosts, precipitation) affect current insecticide use patterns in the continental US. Using climate predictions from National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) we then estimate how different climate change emissions scenarios (i.e. A2, B1) are likely to impact insecticide use in different agricultural regions of the US. We find an increase in growing season temperature (degree days) leads to an increase in insecticides on average, and in most regions of the US. However, our results indicate that the effect of a warm year is heterogeneous in time with, for example, a warm January leading to a more consistent increase in insecticides than a warm July. Therefore, we estimate that while future climate change will lead to an overall increase in insecticide use, the degree to which that increase materializes will depend on how warming manifests during the year.

Warming and drought reduce temperature sensitivity of nitrogen transformations.

PubMed

Novem Auyeung, Dolaporn S; Suseela, Vidya; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2013-02-01

Shifts in nitrogen (N) mineralization and nitrification rates due to global changes can influence nutrient availability, which can affect terrestrial productivity and climate change feedbacks. While many single-factor studies have examined the effects of environmental changes on N mineralization and nitrification, few have examined these effects in a multifactor context or recorded how these effects vary seasonally. In an old-field ecosystem in Massachusetts, USA, we investigated the combined effects of four levels of warming (up to 4 °C) and three levels of precipitation (drought, ambient, and wet) on net N mineralization, net nitrification, and potential nitrification. We also examined the treatment effects on the temperature sensitivity of net N mineralization and net nitrification and on the ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization. During winter, freeze-thaw events, snow depth, and soil freezing depth explained little of the variation in net nitrification and N mineralization rates among treatments. During two years of treatments, warming and altered precipitation rarely influenced the rates of N cycling, and there was no evidence of a seasonal pattern in the responses. In contrast, warming and drought dramatically decreased the apparent Q10 of net N mineralization and net nitrification, and the warming-induced decrease in apparent Q10 was more pronounced in ambient and wet treatments than the drought treatment. The ratio of C mineralization to net N mineralization varied over time and was sensitive to the interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation. Although many studies have found that warming tends to accelerate N cycling, our results suggest that warming can have little to no effect on N cycling in some ecosystems. Thus, ecosystem models that assume that warming will consistently increase N mineralization rates and inputs of plant-available N may overestimate the increase in terrestrial productivity and the magnitude of an important negative feedback to climate change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate change and the possible health effects on older Australians.

PubMed

Saniotis, Arthur; Irvine, Rod

2010-01-01

Climate change is an important issue for Australia. Climate change research forecasts that Australia will experience accelerated warming due to anthrogenic activities. Australia's aging society will face special challenges that demand current attention. This paper discusses two issues in relation to climate change and older Australians: first, pharmacology and autoregulation; and second, mental health among older Australians.

Model simulations of the competing climatic effects of SO[sub 2] and CO[sub 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaufman, Y.J.; Chou, M.D.

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO[sub 2] effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Some general conclusions can be reached. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO[sub 2] emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO[sub 2] greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model,more » 0.15[degrees]C, during the 1980-1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO[sub 2] cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5[degrees]C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2[degrees]C for 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO[sub 2]-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of SO[sub 2]-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents, the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of [minus]0.2[degrees]C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents that the oceans and the larger forcing due to CO[sub 2] than due to the SO[sub 2]. The climate response to a complete filtering of SO[sub 2] from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4[degrees]C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO[sub 2] emission. 64 refs., 7 figs., 3 tabs.« less

Influence of Climate Warming on Arctic Mammals? New Insights from Ancient DNA Studies of the Collared Lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus

PubMed Central

Prost, Stefan; Smirnov, Nickolay; Fedorov, Vadim B.; Sommer, Robert S.; Stiller, Mathias; Nagel, Doris; Knapp, Michael; Hofreiter, Michael

2010-01-01

Background Global temperature increased by approximately half a degree (Celsius) within the last 150 years. Even this moderate warming had major impacts on Earth's ecological and biological systems, especially in the Arctic where the magnitude of abiotic changes even exceeds those in temperate and tropical biomes. Therefore, understanding the biological consequences of climate change on high latitudes is of critical importance for future conservation of the species living in this habitat. The past 25,000 years can be used as a model for such changes, as they were marked by prominent climatic changes that influenced geographical distribution, demographic history and pattern of genetic variation of many extant species. We sequenced ancient and modern DNA of the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx torquatus), which is a key species of the arctic biota, from a single site (Pymva Shor, Northern Pre Urals, Russia) to see if climate warming events after the Last Glacial Maximum had detectable effects on the genetic variation of this arctic rodent species, which is strongly associated with a cold and dry climate. Results Using three dimensional network reconstructions we found a dramatic decline in genetic diversity following the LGM. Model-based approaches such as Approximate Bayesian Computation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian inference show that there is evidence for a population decline in the collared lemming following the LGM, with the population size dropping to a minimum during the Greenland Interstadial 1 (Bølling/Allerød) warming phase at 14.5 kyrs BP. Conclusion Our results show that previous climate warming events had a strong influence on genetic diversity and population size of collared lemmings. Due to its already severely compromised genetic diversity a similar population reduction as a result of the predicted future climate change could completely abolish the remaining genetic diversity in this population. Local population extinctions of collared lemmings would have severe effects on the arctic ecosystem, as collared lemmings are a key species in the trophic interactions and ecosystem processes in the Arctic. PMID:20523724

Global warming triggers the loss of a key Arctic refugium.

PubMed

Rühland, K M; Paterson, A M; Keller, W; Michelutti, N; Smol, J P

2013-12-07

We document the rapid transformation of one of the Earth's last remaining Arctic refugia, a change that is being driven by global warming. In stark contrast to the amplified warming observed throughout much of the Arctic, the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) of subarctic Canada has maintained cool temperatures, largely due to the counteracting effects of persistent sea ice. However, since the mid-1990s, climate of the HBL has passed a tipping point, the pace and magnitude of which is exceptional even by Arctic standards, exceeding the range of regional long-term variability. Using high-resolution, palaeolimnological records of algal remains in dated lake sediment cores, we report that, within this short period of intense warming, striking biological changes have occurred in the region's freshwater ecosystems. The delayed and intense warming in this remote region provides a natural observatory for testing ecosystem resilience under a rapidly changing climate, in the absence of direct anthropogenic influences. The environmental repercussions of this climate change are of global significance, influencing the huge store of carbon in the region's extensive peatlands, the world's southern-most polar bear population that depends upon Hudson Bay sea ice and permafrost for survival, and native communities who rely on this landscape for sustenance.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

PubMed

Maclean, Ilya M D; Suggitt, Andrew J; Wilson, Robert J; Duffy, James P; Bennie, Jonathan J

2017-01-01

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhancing Primary School Students' Knowledge about Global Warming and Environmental Attitude Using Climate Change Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Roth, Wolff-Michael; Abdullah, Mohd Nor Syahrir Bin

2015-01-01

Climate change generally and global warming specifically have become a common feature of the daily news. Due to widespread recognition of the adverse consequences of climate change on human lives, concerted societal effort has been taken to address it (e.g. by means of the science curriculum). This study was designed to test the effect that child-centred, 5E learning cycle-based climate change activities would have over more traditional teacher-centred activities on Malaysian Year 5 primary students (11 years). A quasi-experimental design involving a treatment (n = 55) and a group representing typical teaching method (n = 60) was used to measure the effectiveness of these activities on (a) increasing children's knowledge about global warming; (b) changing their attitudes to be more favourable towards the environment and (c) identify the relationship between knowledge and attitude that exist in this study. Statistically significant differences in favour of the treatment group were detected for both knowledge and environmental attitudes. Non-significant relationship was identified between knowledge and attitude in this study. Interviews with randomly selected students from treatment and comparison groups further underscore these findings. Implications are discussed.

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santer, Benjamin D.; Bonfils, Celine; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Zelinka, Mark D.; Mears, Carl; Solomon, Susan; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Fyfe, John C.; Cole, Jason N.S.; Nazarenko, Larissa;

Global Warming and Energy Transition: A Public Policy Imperative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, G. T.

2006-12-01

The historic transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy resources has begun. This development is commonly attributed to increasing energy costs and the need for energy security. Looming ever larger, however, is the issue that will soon drive the third energy revolution: global warming. A preponderance of evidence documents accelerating warming, enlarging impacts, and human causes -- principally combustion of fossil fuels. The carbon dioxide (C02) content of Earth's atmosphere has increased more than 35 percent since the beginning of the industrial revolution and is the highest in 650,000 years. This dramatic rise of C02 and attendant positive feedbacks are already forcing significant impacts worldwide. These include atmospheric warming with shifting climatic and habitat zones, spreading tropical disease, and more extreme weather events; rapid ice loss at high latitude and high altitude; ocean warming and acidification with coral reef bleaching and intensifying tropical storms; rising sea level; and accelerating extinction rates. The 2007 draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts greater warming than in previous models. A tipping point to abrupt climate change may be imminent. It is incumbent upon geoscientists and geoscience educators to assume leadership in addressing this challenge through public outreach and general education. The following topics should be integrated into all appropriate courses: the evidence of global warming and its causes; observed present and predicted future impacts of global warming; mitigation and adaptation strategies; and implications for energy policies and economic opportunities. New entry-level science and general education courses -- such as Climate Change Fundamentals and Energy in Nature, Technology, and Society -- are proving to be effective should be widely developed In addition, by workshops and presentations to civic and business organizations and by demonstrated examples of institutional commitment to energy conservation, energy efficiency, and renewable energy resources, colleges and universities must focus public and professional attention on the imperative for action and the means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and countering global warming.

Responses of arthropod populations to warming depend on latitude: evidence from urban heat islands.

PubMed

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Ernst, Andrew F; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2017-04-01

Biological effects of climate change are expected to vary geographically, with a strong signature of latitude. For ectothermic animals, there is systematic latitudinal variation in the relationship between climate and thermal performance curves, which describe the relationship between temperature and an organism's fitness. Here, we ask whether these documented latitudinal patterns can be generalized to predict arthropod responses to warming across mid- and high temperate latitudes, for taxa whose thermal physiology has not been measured. To address this question, we used a novel natural experiment consisting of a series of urban warming gradients at different latitudes. Specifically, we sampled arthropods from a single common street tree species across temperature gradients in four US cities, located from 35.8 to 42.4° latitude. We captured 6746 arthropods in 34 families from 111 sites that varied in summer average temperature by 1.7-3.4 °C within each city. Arthropod responses to warming within each city were characterized as Poisson regression coefficients describing change in abundance per °C for each family. Family responses in the two midlatitude cities were heterogeneous, including significantly negative and positive effects, while those in high-latitude cities varied no more than expected by chance within each city. We expected high-latitude taxa to increase in abundance with warming, and they did so in one of the two high-latitude cities; in the other, Queens (New York City), most taxa declined with warming, perhaps due to habitat loss that was correlated with warming in this city. With the exception of Queens, patterns of family responses to warming were consistent with predictions based on known latitudinal patterns in arthropod physiology relative to regional climate. Heterogeneous responses in midlatitudes may be ecologically disruptive if interacting taxa respond oppositely to warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Effects of experimental warming and elevated CO2 on surface methane and CO­2 fluxes from a boreal black spruce peatland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, A. L.; Finzi, A.; Hsieh, I. F.; Giasson, M. A.

2016-12-01

High latitude peatlands represent a major terrestrial carbon store sensitive to climate change, as well as a globally significant methane source. While elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and warming temperatures may increase peat respiration and C losses to the atmosphere, reductions in peatland water tables associated with increased growing season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of trace gas emission and increase peat C losses as CO2 relative to methane (CH4). As CH4 is a greenhouse gas with twenty times the warming potential of CO2, it is critical to understand how surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4 will be influenced by factors associated with global climate change. We used automated soil respiration chambers to assess the influence of elevated atmospheric CO2 and whole ecosystem warming on peatland CH4 and CO2 fluxes at the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change) Experiment in northern Minnesota. Here we report soil iCO2 and iCH4 flux responses to the first year of belowground warming and the first season of whole ecosystem warming and elevated CO2 treatments. We find that peat methane fluxes are more sensitive to warming treatments than peat CO2 fluxes, particularly in hollow peat microforms. Surface CO2:CH4 flux ratios decreased across warming treatments, suggesting that the temperature sensitivity of methane production overshadows the effect of peat drying and surface aeration in the short term. δ13C of the emitted methane was more depleted in the early and late growing season, indicating a transition from hydrogenotrophic to acetoclastic methanogenesis during periods of high photosynthetic input. The measurement record demonstrates that belowground warming has measureable impacts on the nature of peat greenhouse gas emission within one year of treatment.

Microclimate and ecological threshold responses in a warming and wetting experiment following whole-tree harvest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecosystem climate manipulation experiments (ECMEs) are a key tool for predicting the effects of climate on ecosystems. However, the strength of inferences drawn from these experiments depends on whether the manipulated conditions mimic future climate changes. While ECMEs have examined mean tempera...

Interactive effects of anthropogenic nitrogen enrichment and climate change on terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change and Nr from anthropogenic activities are causing some of the most rapid changes in biodiversity in recent times. Climate change is causing warming trends that result in poleward and elevational range shiftsof flora and fauna, and changes in phenology, particularly ...

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE PAGES

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2014-09-24

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Applying Poultry Litter in the Fall to Fertilize Corn May not be Advisable Under Warm Climate

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Row crop farmers prefer to apply poultry litter in the fall or winter but whether this practice is safe environmentally and effective for production in regions with warm fall and winter months is not well researched and documented. Research in Mississippi tested the effectiveness of fall- versus spr...

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food-limited Arctic herbivore.

PubMed

Albon, Steve D; Irvine, R Justin; Halvorsen, Odd; Langvatn, Rolf; Loe, Leif E; Ropstad, Erik; Veiberg, Vebjørn; van der Wal, René; Bjørkvoll, Eirin M; Duff, Elizabeth I; Hansen, Brage B; Lee, Aline M; Tveraa, Torkild; Stien, Audun

2017-04-01

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain-on-snow) can cause 'icing', restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a 'barometer' of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between-year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long-term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to 'rain-on-snow' events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density-dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important 'missing' mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-linear responses of glaciated prairie wetlands to climate warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, W. Carter; Werner, Brett; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2016-01-01

The response of ecosystems to climate warming is likely to include threshold events when small changes in key environmental drivers produce large changes in an ecosystem. Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) are especially sensitive to climate variability, yet the possibility that functional changes may occur more rapidly with warming than expected has not been examined or modeled. The productivity and biodiversity of these wetlands are strongly controlled by the speed and completeness of a vegetation cover cycle driven by the wet and dry extremes of climate. Two thresholds involving duration and depth of standing water must be exceeded every few decades or so to complete the cycle and to produce highly functional wetlands. Model experiments at 19 weather stations employing incremental warming scenarios determined that wetland function across most of the PPR would be diminished beyond a climate warming of about 1.5–2.0 °C, a critical temperature threshold range identified in other climate change studies.

[Serapeo Temple in Pozzuoli, Italy--the unique gauge for the sea (world ocean) level and the Earth surface temperature for over 2100 years].

PubMed

Karnaukhov, V N; Karnaukhov, A V

2010-01-01

The changes in the sea level relative to the position of the Serapeo Temple in Pozzuoly (Italia) over a period of 2100 years are discussed in the context of the well known periods of climate cooling off (Neoglacial, Little Ace Period) and climate warming (Middle Ages Optimum, Modern climate warming). It is noted that the rate of sea level lifting relative to the position of the Serapeo Temple in the modern phase of climate warming, which began the end of the 18th Century is approximately two times higher than in the previous phase of climate warming in the period from the fifth to the mid-tenth century A.D. This indicates that not only the natural cyclic component contributes to the mechanisms of Modern Climate warming but also the anthropogenic component of approximately equivalent power, which results from the waste of CO2 caused by the burning of fossilized fuels.

Communicating the Dangers of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2006-12-01

So far, in my opinion, we scientists have not done a good job of communicating the imminent threat posed by global warming, yet I believe there is still time for that if we work efficiently now to overcome existing obstacles. Several of those obstacles are illustrated by contrasting the roles of scientists, the media, special interests, politicians and the public in the ozone depletion and global warming crises. Scientists in America are further challenged by a decline in public science education, a perceived gap between science and religion, increasing politicization of public affairs offices in the government, and accumulation of power by a unitary executive. First order communication tasks are illustrated by a need for improved exchange and understanding, among scientists as well as with the public, of fundamental climate facts: (1) additional global warming exceeding 1C will yield large climate effects, (2) paleoclimate changes contain quantitatively specific information about climate sensitivity that is not widely appreciated, (3) carbon cycle facts, such as the substantial portion of carbon dioxide emissions that will remain in the air "forever", for practical purposes, (4) fossil fuel facts such as the dominant role of coal and unconventional fuels in all business-as-usual scenarios for future energy sources. The facts graphically illustrate the need for prompt actions to avoid disastrous climate change, yet they also reveal the feasibility of a course that minimizes global warming and yields other benefits. Perhaps the greatest challenge is posed by an inappropriate casting of the topic as a dichotomy between those who deny that there is a global warming problem and those who either are exceedingly pessimistic about the prospects for minimizing climate change or believe that solutions would be very expensive. Sensible evaluation of the situation, in my opinion, suggests a strategy for dealing with global warming that is not costly and has many subsidiary benefits, but it does require leadership. Practical difficulties in communicating this story will be illustrated with some personal experiences.

Migration potential of tundra plant species in a warming Arctic: Responses of southern ecotypes of three species to experimental warming in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjorkman, Anne; Henry, Greg; Vellend, Mark

2013-04-01

Climatic changes due to anthropogenic activity are predicted to have a profound effect on the world's biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The response of natural communities to climate change will depend primarily on two factors: 1) the ability of species to adapt quickly to changing temperatures and precipitation trends, and 2) the ability of species and populations from southern latitudes to migrate northward and establish in new environments. The assumption is often made that species and populations will track their optimal climate northward as the earth warms, but this assumption ignores a host of other potentially important factors, including the lack of adaptation to photoperiod, soil moisture, and biotic interactions at higher latitudes. In this study, we aim to better understand the ability of southern populations to establish and grow at northern latitudes under warmer temperatures. We collected seeds or ramets of three Arctic plant species (Papaver radicatum, Oxyria digyna, and Arctagrostis latifolia) from Alexandra Fiord on Ellesmere Island, Canada and from southern populations at Cornwallis Island, Canada, Barrow, Alaska, and Latnjajaure, Sweden. These seeds were planted into experimentally warmed and control plots at Alexandra Fiord in 2011. We have tracked their survival, phenology, and growth over two growing seasons. Here, we will present the preliminary results of these experiments. In particular, we will discuss whether individuals originating from southern latitudes exhibit higher growth rates in warm plots than control plots, and whether southern populations survive and grow as well as or better than individuals from Alexandra Fiord in the warmed plots. In both cases, a positive response would indicate that a warming climate may facilitate a migration northward of more southerly species or populations, and that the lack of adaptation to local conditions (soil chemistry, microhabitat, etc.) will not limit this migration. Alternately, a negative response may indicate a need to reassess our fundamental assumptions about species migrations in response to climate change.

Correlated declines in Pacific arctic snow and sea ice cover

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stone, Robert P.; Douglas, David C.; Belchansky, Gennady I.; Drobot, Sheldon

2005-01-01

Simulations of future climate suggest that global warming will reduce Arctic snow and ice cover, resulting in decreased surface albedo (reflectivity). Lowering of the surface albedo leads to further warming by increasing solar absorption at the surface. This phenomenon is referred to as “temperature–albedo feedback.” Anticipation of such a feedback is one reason why scientists look to the Arctic for early indications of global warming. Much of the Arctic has warmed significantly. Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased, and sea ice has diminished in area and thickness. As reported in the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment in 2004, the trends are considered to be outside the range of natural variability, implicating global warming as an underlying cause. Changing climatic conditions in the high northern latitudes have influenced biogeochemical cycles on a broad scale. Warming has already affected the sea ice, the tundra, the plants, the animals, and the indigenous populations that depend on them. Changing annual cycles of snow and sea ice also affect sources and sinks of important greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane), further complicating feedbacks involving the global budgets of these important constituents. For instance, thawing permafrost increases the extent of tundra wetlands and lakes, releasing greater amounts of methane into the atmosphere. Variable sea ice cover may affect the hemispheric carbon budget by altering the ocean–atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide. There is growing concern that amplification of global warming in the Arctic will have far-reaching effects on lower latitude climate through these feedback mechanisms. Despite the diverse and convincing observational evidence that the Arctic environment is changing, it remains unclear whether these changes are anthropogenically forced or result from natural variations of the climate system. A better understanding of what controls the seasonal distributions of snow and ice is fundamental to the problem.

Unshelled abalone and corrupted urchins: development of marine calcifiers in a changing ocean.

PubMed

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Wong, Eunice; Soars, Natalie A; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Shepard-Brennand, Hannah; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andrew R

2011-08-07

The most fragile skeletons produced by benthic marine calcifiers are those that larvae and juveniles make to support their bodies. Ocean warming, acidification, decreased carbonate saturation and their interactive effects are likely to impair skeletogenesis. Failure to produce skeleton in a changing ocean has negative implications for a diversity of marine species. We examined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata) and a sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) reared from fertilization in temperature and pH/pCO(2) treatments in a climatically and regionally relevant setting. Exposure of ectodermal (abalone) and mesodermal (echinoid) calcifying systems to warming (+2°C to 4°C) and acidification (pH 7.6-7.8) resulted in unshelled larvae and abnormal juveniles. Haliotis development was most sensitive with no interaction between stressors. For Heliocidaris, the percentage of normal juveniles decreased in response to both stressors, although a +2°C warming diminished the negative effect of low pH. The number of spines produced decreased with increasing acidification/pCO(2), and the interactive effect between stressors indicated that a +2°C warming reduced the negative effects of low pH. At +4°C, the developmental thermal tolerance was breached. Our results show that projected near-future climate change will have deleterious effects on development with differences in vulnerability in the two species.

Unshelled abalone and corrupted urchins: development of marine calcifiers in a changing ocean

PubMed Central

Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Wong, Eunice; Soars, Natalie A.; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Shepard-Brennand, Hannah; Dworjanyn, Symon A.; Davis, Andrew R.

2011-01-01

The most fragile skeletons produced by benthic marine calcifiers are those that larvae and juveniles make to support their bodies. Ocean warming, acidification, decreased carbonate saturation and their interactive effects are likely to impair skeletogenesis. Failure to produce skeleton in a changing ocean has negative implications for a diversity of marine species. We examined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on an abalone (Haliotis coccoradiata) and a sea urchin (Heliocidaris erythrogramma) reared from fertilization in temperature and pH/pCO2 treatments in a climatically and regionally relevant setting. Exposure of ectodermal (abalone) and mesodermal (echinoid) calcifying systems to warming (+2°C to 4°C) and acidification (pH 7.6–7.8) resulted in unshelled larvae and abnormal juveniles. Haliotis development was most sensitive with no interaction between stressors. For Heliocidaris, the percentage of normal juveniles decreased in response to both stressors, although a +2°C warming diminished the negative effect of low pH. The number of spines produced decreased with increasing acidification/pCO2, and the interactive effect between stressors indicated that a +2°C warming reduced the negative effects of low pH. At +4°C, the developmental thermal tolerance was breached. Our results show that projected near-future climate change will have deleterious effects on development with differences in vulnerability in the two species. PMID:21177689

Climatic changes and effect on wild sheep habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pfeifer, Edwin L.; Heimer, Wayne; Roffler, Gretchen; Valdez, Raul; Gahl, Megan

2012-01-01

Wild sheep are sensitive to environmental change and may be an effective indicator species of climate change in arctic and high mountain ecosystems. To understand the effects of climatic changes on Dall sheep habitat, U.S. Geological Survey scientists have been studying selected areas in Alaska since 2007. The research focus is on forage quality, nutrient levels, and changes resulting from warming or cooling climate trends. Preliminary results indicate significant changes in Dall sheep diet accompanying vegetation changes and upslope retreat of glaciers.

Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming.

PubMed

Reich, Peter B; Sendall, Kerrie M; Stefanski, Artur; Wei, Xiaorong; Rich, Roy L; Montgomery, Rebecca A

2016-03-31

Plant respiration results in an annual flux of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere that is six times as large as that due to the emissions from fossil fuel burning, so changes in either will impact future climate. As plant respiration responds positively to temperature, a warming world may result in additional respiratory CO2 release, and hence further atmospheric warming. Plant respiration can acclimate to altered temperatures, however, weakening the positive feedback of plant respiration to rising global air temperature, but a lack of evidence on long-term (weeks to years) acclimation to climate warming in field settings currently hinders realistic predictions of respiratory release of CO2 under future climatic conditions. Here we demonstrate strong acclimation of leaf respiration to both experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation for juveniles of ten North American tree species growing for several years in forest conditions. Plants grown and measured at 3.4 °C above ambient temperature increased leaf respiration by an average of 5% compared to plants grown and measured at ambient temperature; without acclimation, these increases would have been 23%. Thus, acclimation eliminated 80% of the expected increase in leaf respiration of non-acclimated plants. Acclimation of leaf respiration per degree temperature change was similar for experimental warming and seasonal temperature variation. Moreover, the observed increase in leaf respiration per degree increase in temperature was less than half as large as the average reported for previous studies, which were conducted largely over shorter time scales in laboratory settings. If such dampening effects of leaf thermal acclimation occur generally, the increase in respiration rates of terrestrial plants in response to climate warming may be less than predicted, and thus may not raise atmospheric CO2 concentrations as much as anticipated.

Effects of experimental water table and temperature manipulations on ecosystem CO2 fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen

Treesearch

M.R. Chivers; M.R. Turetsky; J.M. Waddington; J.W. Harden; A.D. McGuire

2009-01-01

Peatlands store 30% of the world's terrestrial soil carbon (C) and those located at northern latitudes are expected to experience rapid climate warming. We monitored growing season carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes across a factorial design of in situ water table (control, drought, and flooded plots) and soil warming (control vs. warming via open...

From vegetation zones to climatypes: Effects of climate warming on Siberian ecosystems

Treesearch

N. M. Tchebakova; G. E. Rehfeldt; E. I. Parfenova

2010-01-01

Evidence for global warming over the past 200 years is overwhelming, based on both direct weather observation and indirect physical and biological indicators such as retreating glaciers and snow/ice cover, increasing sea level, and longer growing seasons (IPCC 2001, 2007). On the background of global warming at a rate of 0.6°C during the twentieth century (IPCC 2001),...

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.